WorldWideScience

Sample records for relative risk analysis

  1. Analysis of related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Song Yu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore the related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy to provide a theoretical evidence for effectively preventing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula. Methods: A total of 100 patients who were admitted in our hospital from January, 2012 to January, 2015 and had performed pancreaticoduodenectomy were included in the study. The related risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula were collected for single factor and Logistic multi-factor analysis. Results: Among the included patients, 16 had pancreatic fistula, and the total occurrence rate was 16% (16/100. The single-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, preoperative bilirubin, pancreatic texture, pancreatic duct diameter, intraoperative amount of bleeding, postoperative hemoglobin, and application of somatostatin after operation were the risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (P<0.05. The multi-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin were the dependent risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (OR=4.162, 6.104, 5.613, 4.034, P<0.05. Conclusions: The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely associated with the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin; therefore, effective measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence of pancreatic fistula according to the patients’ own conditions.

  2. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  3. Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning

    Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

  4. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  5. Risk Perception Analysis Related To Existing Dams In Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solimene, Pellegrino

    2013-04-01

    earthfill dam is illustrated by defining the risk analysis during its construction and operation. A qualitative "Event Tree Analysis" makes clear with an example the probability of occurrence of the events triggered by an earthquake, and leads to a classification of the damage level. Finally, a System Dynamics (SD) approach is presented to investigate possibilities of a preventive planning in relationship to the risk, so that it's possible to establish shared procedures to achieve the correct management in any crisis phase. As a qualitative result of a SD application, figure 1 presents a flow-chart about a case study on the same dam so to illustrate the emergency planning in a step by step procedure according to the Regulations.

  6. Concept analysis of risk in relation to coronary heart disease among Filipino-Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalusung-Angosta, Alona

    2010-01-01

    To analyze the concept of risk in relation to coronary heart disease (CHD) among Filipino-Americans (FAs) and provide a new definition of risk. Published literature. This concept analysis provided a new meaning of risk in relation to CHD among FAs and shed light on further understanding of risk. Risk has been laced with negativity in health care, but based on the current literature, risk can be conceptualized in a positive perspective, especially in the area of chronic health disease such as CHD. However, further research is needed in the conceptualization of risk related to CHD for consistency, adequacy, and meaning. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. External cephalic version-related risks: a meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grootscholten, K.; Kok, M.; Oei, S.G.; Mol, B.W.J.; Post, van der J.A.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version–related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. DATA SOURCES: In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials.

  8. External Cephalic Version-Related Risks A Meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grootscholten, Kim; Kok, Marjolein; Oei, S. Guid; Mol, Ben W. J.; van der Post, Joris A.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version-related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. DATA SOURCES: In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials.

  9. Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

    2012-01-01

    In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

  10. External cephalic version-related risks: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grootscholten, Kim; Kok, Marjolein; Oei, S Guid; Mol, Ben W J; van der Post, Joris A

    2008-11-01

    To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version-related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Studies reporting on complications from an external cephalic version attempt for singleton breech pregnancies after 36 weeks of pregnancy were selected. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) from studies that reported both on complications as well as on the position of the fetus immediately after the procedure. We found 84 studies, reporting on 12,955 version attempts that reported on external cephalic version-related complications. The pooled complication rate was 6.1% (95% CI 4.7-7.8), 0.24% for serious complications (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.17-0.34) and 0.35% for emergency cesarean deliveries (95% CI 0.26-0.47). Complications were not related to external cephalic version outcome (OR 1.2 (95% CI 0.93-1.7). External cephalic version is a safe procedure. Complications are not related to the fetal position after external cephalic version.

  11. Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R

    2005-11-15

    A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes.

  12. A risk-factor analysis of medical litigation judgments related to fall injuries in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Insook; Won, Seonae; Lee, Mijin; Lee, Won

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to find out the risk factors through analysis of seven medical malpractice judgments related to fall injuries. The risk factors were analysed by using the framework that approaches falls from a systems perspective and comprised people, organisational or environmental factors, with each factor being comprised of subfactors. The risk factors found in each of the seven judgments were aggregated into one framework. The risk factors related to patients (i.e. the people factor) were age, pain, related disease, activities and functional status, urination state, cognitive function impairment, past history of fall, blood transfusion, sleep endoscopy state and uncooperative attitude. The risk factors related to the medical staff and caregivers (i.e. people factor) were observation negligence, no fall prevention activities and negligence in managing high-risk group for fall. Organisational risk factors were a lack of workforce, a lack of training, neglecting the management of the high-risk group, neglecting the management of caregivers and the absence of a fall prevention procedure. Regarding the environment, the risk factors were found to be the emergency room, chairs without a backrest and the examination table. Identifying risk factors is essential for preventing fall accidents, since falls are preventable patient-safety incidents. Falls do not happen as a result of a single risk factor. Therefore, a systems approach is effective to identify risk factors, especially organisational and environmental factors.

  13. Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.

  14. Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC

  15. Relative risk of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: a spatial analysis in urban area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valdelaine Etelvina Miranda de Araújo

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is a vector-borne disease whose factors involved in transmission are poorly understood, especially in more urban and densely populated counties. In Brazil, the VL urbanization is a challenge for the control program. The goals were to identify the greater risk areas for human VL and the risk factors involved in transmission. METHODOLOGY: This is an ecological study on the relative risk of human VL. Spatial units of analysis were the coverage areas of the Basic Health Units (146 small-areas of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Human VL cases, from 2007 to 2009 (n = 412, were obtained in the Brazilian Reportable Disease Information System. Bayesian approach was used to model the relative risk of VL including potential risk factors involved in transmission (canine infection, socioeconomic and environmental features and to identify the small-areas of greater risk to human VL. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The relative risk of VL was shown to be correlated with income, education, and the number of infected dogs per inhabitants. The estimates of relative risk of VL were higher than 1.0 in 54% of the areas (79/146. The spatial modeling highlighted 14 areas with the highest relative risk of VL and 12 of them are concentrated in the northern region of the city. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis used in this study is useful for the identification of small-areas according to risk of human VL and presents operational applicability in control and surveillance program in an urban environment with an unequal spatial distribution of the disease. Thus the frequent monitoring of relative risk of human VL in small-areas is important to direct and prioritize the actions of the control program in urban environment, especially in big cities.

  16. Changes in Classes of Injury-Related Risks and Consequences of Risk-Level Drinking: a Latent Transition Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochran, Gerald; Field, Craig; Caetano, Raul

    2015-07-01

    Risk-level drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related violence are risk factors that result in injuries. The current study sought to identify which subgroups of patients experience the most behavioral change following a brief intervention. A secondary analysis of data from a brief alcohol intervention study was conducted. The sample (N = 664) includes at-risk drinkers who experienced an injury and were admitted for care to a Level 1 trauma center. Injury-related items from the Short Inventory of Problems+6 were used to perform a latent transition analysis to describe class transitions participants experienced following discharge. Four classes emerged for the year before and after the current injury. Most individuals transitioned from higher-risk classes into those with lower risk. Some participants maintained risky profiles, and others increased risks and consequences. Drinking and driving remained a persistent problem among the study participants. Although a large portion of intervention recipients improved risks and consequences of alcohol use following discharge, more intensive intervention services may be needed for a subset of patients who showed little or no improvement.

  17. Host-Country Related Risk Factors in International Construction: Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Güzin AYDOGAN

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Internationalization has been on the agenda of construction firms as a strategic option in global competition. Due to globalization every sector including the construction industry has faced with high levels of competitiveness, uncertainty, and risk. International construction involves common risks to domestic construction, as well as risks that are related to the host country. These risks have serious effects on the performance of international projects. Since the sustainable competitiveness of international contractors depends largely on the effective management of these risks, their assessment becomes vital for the success of international contractors. The main aim of this study is to analyse the risks for international construction projects that are related to the host country. Meta-analysis technique is used in order to determine these risks. This paper, therefore, reviews the literature that has been published in four most respected construction and management journals, these being; Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Journal of Management in Engineering, Construction Management and Economics, and International Journal of Project Management for the period of 2000-2010. International construction risk assessment models are also reviewed within the context of this study, since host country related risk factors were found to have serious effects on the profitability of international contractors due to literature review. As a result; political stability, law and regulations, exchange rate risk, cultural differences, inflation, expropriation, tax discrimination, language barrier, bribery and corruption, force majeure, and societal conflicts in the host country are found to be the most important risk factors in international construction. Findings of this study can be used in risk assessment models for international construction projects.

  18. Vitamin E and risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yufei; Jiang, Wenjie; Xie, Zhutian; Wu, Wenlong; Zhang, Dongfeng

    2015-10-01

    We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between vitamin E and age-related cataract (ARC). The fixed- or random-effect model was selected based on heterogeneity. Meta-regression was used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated using Begg's test. The dose-response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model. Relevant studies were identified by a search of PubMed and the Cochrane Library to May 2014, without language restrictions. Studies involved samples of people of all ages. Dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high serum tocopherol levels were significantly associated with decreased risk of ARC, the pooled relative risk was 0·73 (95% CI 0·58, 0·92), 0·86 (95% CI 0·75, 0·99) and 0·77 (95% CI 0·66, 0·91), respectively. Supplemental vitamin E intake was non-significantly associated with ARC risk (relative risk=0·92; 95% CI 0·78, 1·07). The findings from dose-response analysis showed evidence of a non-linear association between dietary vitamin E intake and ARC. The risk of ARC decreased with dietary vitamin E intake from 7 mg/d (relative risk=0·94; 95% CI 0·90, 0·97). The findings of the meta-analysis indicated that dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high level of serum tocopherol might be significantly associated with reduced ARC risk.

  19. Analysis Community’s Coping Strategies and Local Risk Governance Framework in Relation to Landslide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heru Setiawan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of people perception and analysis of the coping strategy to landslides are the two elements that are es-sential to determine the level of preparedness of communities to landslides. To know the preparedness of government and other stakeholders in facing landslide, the analysis risk governance framework was required. A survey using questionnaires with random sampling was applied to assess the level of people perception and people coping strategy related to landslide. Analysis of risk governance frame work was done at the district and sub-district level. ἀe study found that people perception related with landslide dominated by high and moderate level. Age and education are two factors that inḀuence the people’s perception to landslide. Local people applied four types coping strategy, which are: economic, structural, social and cultural coping strategy. Totally, 51.6% respondents have high level, 33.3% have moderate level and only 15.1% respondents that have low level of coping strategy. ἀe factors that inḀuence the level of coping strategy are education, income and building type.  Analysis of risk governance framework is limited to the three components including stakeholder involvement, risk management and risk communication. Based on the data analysis, the level of stakeholder involvement at the district scope was categorized on the moderate till high and the level of stakeholder involvement at sub-district level was categorized on the high level. Generally, the risk management of Karanganyar was categorized on the moderate level and high level and the risk management in Tawangmangu was categorized on the moderate level. ἀere are some elements must be improved on the risk governance framework, those are data management, the pattern of relationships among stakeholders, increased participation of NGOs, constructed and updated landslide risk map, enhancement of microᴀnance role in helping the com-munity when disaster strikes

  20. Association of vitamin C with the risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Lin; Liang, Ge; Cai, Chunmei; Lv, Jin

    2016-05-01

    Whether vitamin C is a protective factor for age-related cataract remains unclear. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the evidence from epidemiological studies of vitamin C and the risk of age-related cataract. Pertinent studies were identified by searching in PubMed and in Webscience. The random effect model was used to combine the results. Meta-regression and subgroups analyses were used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was estimated using Egger's regression asymmetry test. Finally, 15 articles with 20 studies for vitamin C intake and eight articles with 10 studies for serum ascorbate were included in this meta-analysis. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval of cataract for the highest versus the lowest category of vitamin C intake was 0.814 (0.707-0.938), and the associations were significant in America and Asia. Significant association of cataract risk with highest versus the lowest category of serum ascorbate was found in general [0.704 (0.564-0.879)]. Inverse associations were also found between serum ascorbate and nuclear cataract and posterior subcapsular cataract. Higher vitamin C intake and serum ascorbate might be inversely associated with risk of cataract. Vitamin C intake should be advocated for the primary prevention of cataract. © 2015 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION COUNTRY RISK – MULTIPLE VALUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Nicolescu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial theory state that high expected growth, low risk in the company’s sector and low interest rates will push multiples higher. In this respect the goal of the empirical work is to examine country risk-multiple value relation, for the companies from emerging and frontier markets such as Central and East European ones. Specific control variables have been included in the model as proxy for growth opportunities, profitability, capital structure, and asset utilization. Using panel data analysis for period 2010-2015 as well as other financial variables for a sample of Central and East European countries during 2010-2015. The results partially support financial theories, mainly the significance of country risk and debt ratio and reject the growth opportunities hypothesis.

  2. Method of assessing a lipid-related health risk based on ion mobility analysis of lipoproteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benner, W. Henry; Krauss, Ronald M.; Blanche, Patricia J.

    2010-12-14

    A medical diagnostic method and instrumentation system for analyzing noncovalently bonded agglomerated biological particles is described. The method and system comprises: a method of preparation for the biological particles; an electrospray generator; an alpha particle radiation source; a differential mobility analyzer; a particle counter; and data acquisition and analysis means. The medical device is useful for the assessment of human diseases, such as cardiac disease risk and hyperlipidemia, by rapid quantitative analysis of lipoprotein fraction densities. Initially, purification procedures are described to reduce an initial blood sample to an analytical input to the instrument. The measured sizes from the analytical sample are correlated with densities, resulting in a spectrum of lipoprotein densities. The lipoprotein density distribution can then be used to characterize cardiac and other lipid-related health risks.

  3. Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky......We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...

  4. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  5. Risk analysis for roadways subjected to multiple landslide-related hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corominas, Jordi; Mavrouli, Olga

    2014-05-01

    Roadways through mountainous terrain often involve cuts and landslide areas whose stability is precarious and require protection and stabilization works. To optimize the allocation of resources, government and technical offices are increasingly interested in both the risk analysis and assessment. Risk analysis has to consider the hazard occurrence and the consequences. The consequences can be both direct and indirect. The former include the costs regarding the repair of the roadway, the damage of vehicles and the potential fatalities, while the latter refer to the costs related to the diversion of vehicles, the excess of distance travelled, the time differences, and tolls. The type of slope instabilities that may affect a roadway may vary and its effects as well. Most current approaches either consider a single hazardous phenomenon each time, or if applied at small (for example national) scale, they do not take into account local conditions at each section of the roadway. The objective of this work is the development of a simple and comprehensive methodology for the assessment of the risk due to multiple hazards along roadways, integrating different landslide types that include rockfalls, debris flows and considering as well the potential failure of retaining walls. To quantify risk, all hazards are expressed with a common term: their probability of occurrence. The methodology takes into consideration the specific local conditions along the roadway. For rockfalls and debris flow a variety of methods for assessing the probability of occurrence exists. To assess the annual probability of failure of retaining walls we use an indicator-based model that provides a hazard index. The model parameters consist in the design safety factor, and further anchorage design and construction parameters. The probability of failure is evaluated in function of the hazard index and next corrected (in terms of order of magnitude) according to in situ observations for increase of two

  6. Risk factors for breast cancer-related upper extremity lymphedema: a meta-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Yuhuan; Guo Qi; Liu Fenghua; Zhu Yaqun; Tian Ye

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To systematically evaluate the risk factors for upper extremity lymphedema after breast cancer treatment and the strength of their associations. Methods: PubMed, Ovid, EMbase, and the Cochrane Library were searched to identify clinical trials published up to December 2012. The quality of included studies was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale;data analysis was performed by Stata 10.0 and RevMan 5.2; the strength of associations between risk factors and breast cancer-related upper extremity lymphedema was described as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Twenty-two studies involving 10106 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The risk factors for upper extremity lymphedema after breast cancer treatment mainly included axillary lymph node dissection (OR=2.72, 95% CI=1.06-6.99, P=0.038), hypertension (OR=1.84, 95% CI=1.38-2.44, P=0.000), body mass index (OR=1.68, 95% CI=1.22-2.32, P=0.001), and radiotherapy (OR=1.65, 95% CI=1.20-2.25, P=0.002), while no significant associations were found for such factors as chemotherapy, age, number of positive lymph nodes, and number of dissected lymph nodes. Conclusions: The incidence of upper extremity lymphedema is high among patients with breast cancer after treatment, and axillary lymph node dissection, hypertension,body mass index, and radiotherapy are the main risk factors for lymphedema after breast cancer treatment. (authors)

  7. Spacesuit Glove-Induced Hand Trauma and Analysis of Potentially Related Risk Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charvat, Chacqueline M.; Norcross, Jason; Reid, Christopher R.; McFarland, Shane M.

    2015-01-01

    Injuries to the hands are common among astronauts who train for extravehicular activity (EVA). When the gloves are pressurized, they restrict movement and create pressure points during tasks, sometimes resulting in pain, muscle fatigue, abrasions, and occasionally more severe injuries such as onycholysis. Glove injuries, both anecdotal and recorded, have been reported during EVA training and flight persistently through NASA's history regardless of mission or glove model. Theories as to causation such as glove-hand fit are common but often lacking in supporting evidence. Previous statistical analysis has evaluated onycholysis in the context of crew anthropometry only. The purpose of this study was to analyze all injuries (as documented in the medical records) and available risk factor variables with the goal to determine engineering and operational controls that may reduce hand injuries due to the EVA glove in the future. A literature review and data mining study were conducted between 2012 and 2014. This study included 179 US NASA crew who trained or completed an EVA between 1981 and 2010 (crossing both Shuttle and ISS eras) and wore either the 4000 Series or Phase VI glove during Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit EVA training and flight. All injuries recorded in medical records were analyzed in their association to candidate risk factor variables. Those risk factor variables included demographic characteristics, hand anthropometry, glove fit characteristics, and training/EVA characteristics. Utilizing literature, medical records and anecdotal causation comments recorded in crewmember injury data, investigators were able to identify several risk factors associated with increased risk of glove related injuries. Prime among them were smaller hand anthropometry, duration of individual suited exposures, and improper glove-hand fit as calculated by the difference in the anthropometry middle finger length compared to the baseline EVA glove middle finger length.

  8. Decreasing relative risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    2007-01-01

    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

  9. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  10. Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

    2012-02-15

    The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

  11. Clinical risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evans Christopher

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Age-related macular degeneration (AMD is the leading cause of blindness in Western countries. Numerous risk factors have been reported but the evidence and strength of association is variable. We aimed to identify those risk factors with strong levels of evidence which could be easily assessed by physicians or ophthalmologists to implement preventive interventions or address current behaviours. Methods A systematic review identified 18 prospective and cross-sectional studies and 6 case control studies involving 113,780 persons with 17,236 cases of late AMD that included an estimate of the association between late AMD and at least one of 16 pre-selected risk factors. Fixed-effects meta-analyses were conducted for each factor to combine odds ratio (OR and/or relative risk (RR outcomes across studies by study design. Overall raw point estimates of each risk factor and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated. Results Increasing age, current cigarette smoking, previous cataract surgery, and a family history of AMD showed strong and consistent associations with late AMD. Risk factors with moderate and consistent associations were higher body mass index, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and higher plasma fibrinogen. Risk factors with weaker and inconsistent associations were gender, ethnicity, diabetes, iris colour, history of cerebrovascular disease, and serum total and HDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels. Conclusions Smoking, previous cataract surgery and a family history of AMD are consistent risk factors for AMD. Cardiovascular risk factors are also associated with AMD. Knowledge of these risk factors that may be easily assessed by physicians and general ophthalmologists may assist in identification and appropriate referral of persons at risk of AMD.

  12. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  13. Urban-hazard risk analysis: mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Morabito

    Full Text Available Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks.Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65.A long time-series (2001-2013 of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST. LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1 the Linear Regression Model (LRM; 2 the Generalized Additive Model (GAM. Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m from the 2001 census (Eurostat source, and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI.The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities.This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat-related

  14. Urban-hazard risk analysis: mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

    2015-01-01

    Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65). A long time-series (2001-2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat-related

  15. Relating plastic in the ocean to ecological harm, a review of recent progress in risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuyler, Q. A.; Hardesty, B. D.; Wilcox, C.; van Sebille, E.; Mallos, N. J.; Leonard, G. H.

    2016-02-01

    Plastic pollution in the ocean is emerging as a global environmental concern. Estimates suggest that we dump on the order of 8.4 million tons of plastic in the ocean each year. This plastic reaches substantial concentrations, with at sea sampling measuring densities over 580,000 items per square kilometer. However, it is difficult to relate this exposure to resulting ecological impacts. Animals dying due to plastic ingestion or entanglement may not was ahsore, and sampling at sea is expensive and infrequent. Thus demonstrating a direct relationship between plastic in the envioronment and harm to marine wildlife is challenging. Here we review current progress on risk assessment for impacts to marine wildlife from plastic pollution. The analyses we review range from expert elicitation to integrated statistical and physical models. They range widely in scope, from estimates at the individual level to who taxa analysis. Some of the analyses reach only to exposure to the pressure, whie others carry through to estimate demographic impacts and even mortality due to ingestion of or entanglement in plastic debris in the ocean. We summarize the results of these studies, and provide a roadmap for future contributions toward estimating the actual ecological impact of plastic pollution.

  16. Work-related risk factors for specific shoulder disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Molen, Henk F.; Foresti, Chiara; Daams, Joost G.; Frings-Dresen, Monique H. W.; Kuijer, P. Paul F. M.

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this systematic review and metaanalysis is to examine which work-related risk factors are associated with specific soft tissue shoulder disorders. We searched the electronic databases of Medline and Embase for articles published between 2009 and 24 March 2016 and included the

  17. Risk analysis related to dangerous materials transport and storage in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, J.; Hubert, P.; Pages, P.

    1989-12-01

    Risk management in an urban areas not always an easy task and the selection of appropriate prevention measure is often difficult. Consequences of an accident can be multiple (mortality, destruction, pollution, interruption of supplies, economic losses, traffic difficulties), and preventive measures are difficult to compare. The objective of this report is to present different methods applicable for decision making emphasising the criteria for their intercomparison and their limitations. In any case a more sophisticated analysis is needed for risk management in urban areas. Principals of methods needed for decision making are presented. These methods are based on a single criteria (regular constraint), on a few criteria that can be measured (cost-benefit), or a number of criteria at choice. These rather general methods should be adaptable to be applied for specific domain. For risk management the following adaptation are presented: identifying the limit of maximum individual risk (generalisation of regular constraint); adoption of different values of human life as a function of nature of consequences (generalisation of cost-benefit method), application of risk avoidance factors. These different developments predict versions of tools for decision making which can be applicable to risk management in urban areas [fr

  18. Urban-Hazard Risk Analysis: Mapping of Heat-Related Risks in the Elderly in Major Italian Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

    2015-01-01

    Background Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Objectives Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥65). Methods A long time-series (2001–2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using “Crichton’s Risk Triangle” hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). Results The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. Conclusions This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public

  19. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Procedure-related risk of miscarriage following amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akolekar, R; Beta, J; Picciarelli, G; Ogilvie, C; D'Antonio, F

    2015-01-01

    To estimate procedure-related risks of miscarriage following amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling (CVS) based on a systematic review of the literature and a meta-analysis. A search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINHAL and The Cochrane Library (2000-2014) was performed to review relevant citations reporting procedure-related complications of amniocentesis and CVS. Only studies reporting data on more than 1000 procedures were included in this review to minimize the effect of bias from smaller studies. Heterogeneity between studies was estimated using Cochran's Q, the I(2) statistic and Egger bias. Meta-analysis of proportions was used to derive weighted pooled estimates for the risk of miscarriage before 24 weeks' gestation. Incidence-rate difference meta-analysis was used to estimate pooled procedure-related risks. The weighted pooled risks of miscarriage following invasive procedures were estimated from analysis of controlled studies including 324 losses in 42 716 women who underwent amniocentesis and 207 losses in 8899 women who underwent CVS. The risk of miscarriage prior to 24 weeks in women who underwent amniocentesis and CVS was 0.81% (95% CI, 0.58-1.08%) and 2.18% (95% CI, 1.61-2.82%), respectively. The background rates of miscarriage in women from the control group that did not undergo any procedures were 0.67% (95% CI, 0.46-0.91%) for amniocentesis and 1.79% (95% CI, 0.61-3.58%) for CVS. The weighted pooled procedure-related risks of miscarriage for amniocentesis and CVS were 0.11% (95% CI, -0.04 to 0.26%) and 0.22% (95% CI, -0.71 to 1.16%), respectively. The procedure-related risks of miscarriage following amniocentesis and CVS are much lower than are currently quoted. Copyright © 2014 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Relative risk estimation of Chikungunya disease in Malaysia: An analysis based on Poisson-gamma model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

    2015-05-01

    Disease mapping is a method to display the geographical distribution of disease occurrence, which generally involves the usage and interpretation of a map to show the incidence of certain diseases. Relative risk (RR) estimation is one of the most important issues in disease mapping. This paper begins by providing a brief overview of Chikungunya disease. This is followed by a review of the classical model used in disease mapping, based on the standardized morbidity ratio (SMR), which we then apply to our Chikungunya data. We then fit an extension of the classical model, which we refer to as a Poisson-Gamma model, when prior distributions for the relative risks are assumed known. Both results are displayed and compared using maps and we reveal a smoother map with fewer extremes values of estimated relative risk. The extensions of this paper will consider other methods that are relevant to overcome the drawbacks of the existing methods, in order to inform and direct government strategy for monitoring and controlling Chikungunya disease.

  2. [An analysis of clinical characteristic and related risk factors in 208 cirrhotic patients complicated with infections].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, G H; Wang, M; Wang, L; Wang, X M; Wang, Y; Ou, X J; Jia, J D

    2018-02-01

    Objective: To analyze the clinical features and risk factors of cirrhotic patients complicated with infections. Methods: The clinical and laboratory characteristics of cirrhotic patients complicated with infections hospitalized from April 2014 to June 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Relevant risk factors for infection and mortality were explored. Results: The overall incidence of infections was 17.6% in 1 670 hospitalized cirrhotic patients. Among the recruited 208 patients in this study, alcoholic, viral hepatitis B or C and autoimmune liver diseases accounted for 29.8% (62/208), 26.0% (54/208), and 22.1% (46/208), respectively. The most common infection site was respiratory tract (70.2%), followed by urinary tract, intestinal and intra-abdomen. Forty-six pathogens were isolated from 32 patients, including 22 (47.8%) Gram negative bacteria, 16 (34.8%) Gram positive bacteria and 2(4.3%) mycobacterium tuberculosis, 5 (10.9%) fungi and 1 (2.2%) mycoplasma. The mortality in patients with nosocomial infections (16.7%,7/42) was higher than that in patients with community-acquired infections (6.0%,10/166, P =0.025). All 17 deaths occurred in decompensated cirrhosis. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that hepatic encephalopathy and prothrombin time were independent risk factors of mortality. Conclusions: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis are more susceptible to infections. Hepatic encephalopathy and prothrombin time are independent risk factors for death.

  3. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  4. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  5. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  6. Using risk analysis in Health Impact Assessment: the impact of different relative risks for men and women in different socio-economic groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilunger, Louise; Diderichsen, Finn; Burström, Bo

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study is to contribute to the emerging field of quantification of Health Impact Assessment (HIA), by analysing how different relative risks affect the burden of disease for various socio-economic groups (SES). Risk analysis, utilising attributable and impact fraction, raises several...... methodological considerations. The present study illustrates this by measuring the impact of changed distribution levels of smoking on lung cancer, ischemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive lung disorder (COLD) and stroke for the highest and lowest socio-economic groups measured in disability adjusted...... the highest and lowest socio-economic groups may decrease by 75% or increase by 21% depending on the size of the relative risk. Assuming the same smoking prevalence for the lowest socio-economic group as for the highest (impact fraction), then the inequality may decrease by 7-26%. Consequently, the size...

  7. Risk factors for infections in international travelers: an analysis of travel-related notifiable communicable diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, Atar; Libassi, Lisa; Lloyd, Jennifer K; Benoliel, Eileen; Brucker, Rachel; Jones, Megan Q; Kwan-Gett, Tao Sheng; McKeirnan, Shelly; Pecha, Monica; Rietberg, Krista; Serafin, Lauri; Walkinshaw, Lina P; Duchin, Jeffrey S

    2014-01-01

    We sought to describe travel-related illness among our residents and gain insight into targeting pre-travel health advice to prevent travel-related illness. A supplemental travel questionnaire was developed and administered for cases with a legally notifiable communicable disease reported in 2011-2012, who spent at least part of their exposure period outside the United States. Among 451 cases meeting the eligibility criteria, 259 were interviewed. Forty four percent reported receiving pre-travel advice. Two-thirds adhered fully with risk behavior recommendations; 94% followed immunization recommendations partially or fully; and 84% adhered fully with malaria prophylaxis recommendations. The primary reasons for not obtaining pre-travel advice were being unaware of the need (47.5%), or believing they already knew what to do (34.5%). Adults (OR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.4-5.5), males (OR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.1-3.0), those born outside the United States (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.1-3.7), and those with planning time under two weeks (OR = 4.8, 95% CI = 1.5-15.9) or travel duration less than 7 days (OR = 7.9, 95% CI = 3.0-20.9) were more likely to travel without seeking pre-travel advice. The majority of cases reported not receiving pre-travel advice. Understanding the predictors of failure to receive pre-travel advice may help target public health prevention efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Work related musculoskeletal disorders amongst therapists in physically demanding roles: qualitative analysis of risk factors and strategies for prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passier, Leanne; McPhail, Steven

    2011-01-25

    Physiotherapy and occupational therapy are two professions at high risk of work related musculoskeletal disorders (WRMD). This investigation aimed to identify risk factors for WRMD as perceived by the health professionals working in these roles (Aim 1), as well as current and future strategies they perceive will allow them to continue to work in physically demanding clinical roles (Aim 2). A two phase exploratory investigation was undertaken. The first phase included a survey administered via a web based platform with qualitative open response items. The second phase involved four focus group sessions which explored topics obtained from the survey. Thematic analysis of qualitative data from the survey and focus groups was undertaken. Overall 112 (34.3%) of invited health professionals completed the survey; 66 (58.9%) were physiotherapists and 46 (41.1%) were occupational therapists. Twenty-four health professionals participated in one of four focus groups. The risk factors most frequently perceived by health professionals included: work postures and movements, lifting or carrying, patient related factors and repetitive tasks. The six primary themes for strategies to allow therapists to continue to work in physically demanding clinical roles included: organisational strategies, workload or work allocation, work practices, work environment and equipment, physical condition and capacity, and education and training. Risk factors as well as current and potential strategies for reducing WRMD amongst these health professionals working in clinically demanding roles have been identified and discussed. Further investigation regarding the relative effectiveness of these strategies is warranted.

  9. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  10. [Analysis on willingness to receive human papillomavirus vaccination among risk males and related factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xiaojun; Jia, Tianjian; Zhang, Xuan; Zhu, Chen; Chen, Xin; Zou, Huachun

    2015-10-01

    To understand the willingness to receive human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of men who have sex with men (MSM) and the male clients of sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics and related factors in China. MSM were enrolled from the community through snowball sampling and male clients of STD clinics were enrolled from a sexual health clinic through convenience sampling in Wuxi, China. A questionnaire survey on the subjects' socio-demographic characteristics and the awareness of HPV was conducted. A total of 186 MSM and 182 STD clients were recruited. The awareness rates of HPV were 18.4% and 23.1%, respectively and the awareness rates of HPV vaccination were 10.2% and 15.4%, respectively. STD clinic clients (70.9%) were more likely to receive HPV vaccination than MSM (34.9%) (χ² = 47.651, P<0.01). Only 26.2% of MSM and 20.2% of STD clinic clients were willing to receive free HPV vaccination before the age of 20 years. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that MSM who had passive anal sex (OR=2.831, 95% CI: 1.703-13.526) , MSM who never used condom in anal sex in the past 6 months (OR=3.435, 95% CI: 1.416-20.108) , MSM who had been diagnosed with STDs (OR=1.968, 95% CI: 1.201-8.312) and STD clinic clients who had commercial sex with females in the past 3 months (OR=1.748, 95% CI: 1.207-8.539) , STD clinic clients who never used condom in commercial sex in the past 3 months (OR=1.926, 95% CI: 1.343-5.819) and STD clinic clients who had been diagnosed with STDs in past 12 months (OR=2.017, 95% CI: 1.671-7.264) were more likely to receive free HPV vaccination. Sexually active MSM and male clients in STD clinics in China had lower awareness of the HPV related knowledge. Their willing to receive HPV vaccination were influenced by their behavior related factors. It is necessary to strengthen the health education about HPV and improve people's awareness of HPV vaccination.

  11. A meta-analysis of risk factors for combat-related PTSD among military personnel and veterans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Xue

    Full Text Available Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD, a complex and chronic disorder caused by exposure to a traumatic event, is a common psychological result of current military operations. It causes substantial distress and interferes with personal and social functioning. Consequently, identifying the risk factors that make military personnel and veterans more likely to experience PTSD is of academic, clinical, and social importance. Four electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and PsycINFO were used to search for observational studies (cross-sectional, retrospective, and cohort studies about PTSD after deployment to combat areas. The literature search, study selection, and data extraction were conducted by two of the authors independently. Thirty-two articles were included in this study. Summary estimates were obtained using random-effects models. Subgroup analyses, sensitivity analyses, and publication bias tests were performed. The prevalence of combat-related PTSD ranged from 1.09% to 34.84%. A total of 18 significant predictors of PTSD among military personnel and veterans were found. Risk factors stemming from before the trauma include female gender, ethnic minority status, low education, non-officer ranks, army service, combat specialization, high numbers of deployments, longer cumulative length of deployments, more adverse life events, prior trauma exposure, and prior psychological problems. Various aspects of the trauma period also constituted risk factors. These include increased combat exposure, discharging a weapon, witnessing someone being wounded or killed, severe trauma, and deployment-related stressors. Lastly, lack of post-deployment support during the post-trauma period also increased the risk of PTSD. The current analysis provides evidence of risk factors for combat-related PTSD in military personnel and veterans. More research is needed to determine how these variables interact and how to best protect against susceptibility

  12. A Meta-Analysis of Risk Factors for Combat-Related PTSD among Military Personnel and Veterans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuan; Kang, Peng; Wang, Meng; Zhang, Lulu

    2015-01-01

    Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a complex and chronic disorder caused by exposure to a traumatic event, is a common psychological result of current military operations. It causes substantial distress and interferes with personal and social functioning. Consequently, identifying the risk factors that make military personnel and veterans more likely to experience PTSD is of academic, clinical, and social importance. Four electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and PsycINFO) were used to search for observational studies (cross-sectional, retrospective, and cohort studies) about PTSD after deployment to combat areas. The literature search, study selection, and data extraction were conducted by two of the authors independently. Thirty-two articles were included in this study. Summary estimates were obtained using random-effects models. Subgroup analyses, sensitivity analyses, and publication bias tests were performed. The prevalence of combat-related PTSD ranged from 1.09% to 34.84%. A total of 18 significant predictors of PTSD among military personnel and veterans were found. Risk factors stemming from before the trauma include female gender, ethnic minority status, low education, non-officer ranks, army service, combat specialization, high numbers of deployments, longer cumulative length of deployments, more adverse life events, prior trauma exposure, and prior psychological problems. Various aspects of the trauma period also constituted risk factors. These include increased combat exposure, discharging a weapon, witnessing someone being wounded or killed, severe trauma, and deployment-related stressors. Lastly, lack of post-deployment support during the post-trauma period also increased the risk of PTSD. The current analysis provides evidence of risk factors for combat-related PTSD in military personnel and veterans. More research is needed to determine how these variables interact and how to best protect against susceptibility to PTSD. PMID

  13. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  14. Association between Work-Related Stress and Risk for Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, Hua; Sun, Nijing; Zhan, Libin; Lu, Xiaoguang; Chen, Tuo; Mao, Xinyong

    2016-01-01

    The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly around the world. Work-related stress is thought to be a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes; however, this association has not been widely studied, and the findings that have been reported are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to explore the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. A systematic literature search and manual search limited to articles published in English were performed to select the prospective cohort studies evaluated the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes up to September 2014 from four electronic databases including PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science. A random-effects model was used to estimate the overall risk. No significant association was found between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes based on meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies involving 214,086 participants and 5,511 cases (job demands: relative risk 0.94 [95% confidence interval 0.72-1.23]; decision latitude: relative risk 1.16 [0.85-1.58]; job strain: relative risk 1.12 [.0.95-1.32]). However, an association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes was observed in women (job strain: relative risk 1.22 [1.01-1.46]) (P = 0.04). A sensitivity analysis conducted by excluding one study in each turn yielded similar results. No publication bias was detected with a funnel plot despite the limited number of studies included in the analysis. The results of this meta-analysis did not confirm a direct association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. In subgroup analyses we found job strain was a risk factor for type 2 diabetes in women.

  15. Occupational Noise Exposure and the Risk for Work-Related Injury: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzhambov, Angel; Dimitrova, Donka

    2017-11-10

    Occupational noise exposure has been linked to work-related injuries. Strategies to control occupational hazards often rely on dose-response relationships needed to inform policy, but quantitative synthesis of the relevant literature has not been done so far. This study aimed to systematically review the epidemiological literature and to perform meta-analysis of the risk for work-related injury due to occupational noise exposure. PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines were followed. PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar were searched up until 15 December 2016 in English, Russian, and Spanish. Reference lists, grey literature, and expert archives were searched as well. The risk of bias was assessed for each study and incorporated into the meta-analysis weights using the quality effects model. Overall, 21 studies were included at the qualitative review stage: 9 cross-sectional, 6 case-control, 4 cohort, 1 case-crossover, and 1 ecological. Noise exposure was assessed objectively in 13 studies. Information on occupational injuries was elicited from medical records/registry in 13 studies. Meta-analyses showed RR = 1.22 (95% CI: 1.15, 1.29) (n = 59028) per 5 dB increase in noise exposure (Cochran's Q = 27.26, P 90-95 dB) compared with the least exposed group (Cochran's Q = 180.46, P work-related injury risk. However, the quality of evidence is 'very low'; therefore, the magnitude of this association should be interpreted with caution. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

  16. The relativity of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, R.H.

    1987-01-01

    The transport of radioactive material has long been a subject of emotive controversy. For a realistic assessment of the risks involved, however, they must be seen in the context of the transport of any hazardous cargoes, especially those which are energy-producing products

  17. Incidence and relative risk of peripheral neuropathy in cancer patients treated with eribulin: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Ling; Hong, Yun; Ye, Xianghua; Shi, Peng; Zhang, Junyan; Wang, Yina; Zhao, Qiong

    2017-12-19

    Eribulin is a microtubule inhibitor, which is approved for the treatment of breast cancer. Peripheral neuropathy has been reported in the studies of eribulin, but the incidence and relative risk (RR) of eribulin-associated peripheral neuropathy varied greatly in cancer patients. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine the overall incidence and RR of eribulin-associated peripheral neuropathy in cancer patients. Pubmed database and Embase and abstracts presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) meetings were systematically reviewed for primary studies. Eligible studies included prospective clinical trials and expanded access programs of cancer patients treated with eribulin. Statistical analyses were performed to calculate the incidences, RRs, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Altogether, 4,849 patients from 19 clinical trials were selected for this meta-analysis. The incidences of all-grade and high-grade peripheral neuropathy were 27.5% (95% CI: 23.3-32.4%) and 4.7% (95% CI: 3.6-6.2%), respectively. The relative risks of peripheral neuropathy of eribulin compared to control were increased for all-grade (RR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.10-3.25) but not statistically significant for high-grade (RR = 2.98, 95% CI: 0.71-12.42). The use of eribulin is associated with an increased incidence of peripheral neuropathy. The RR is increased for all-grade peripheral neuropathy.

  18. Human health risks analysis: assessment of health costs of energy related pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginevan, M.E.; Grahn, D.; Lundy, R.T.; Brown, C.D.; Curtiss, J.B.

    1979-01-01

    This section contains a summary of research on the assessment of health costs of energy related pollutants. It includes the development of new statistical methodology, mathematical models, and data bases relevant to the assessment

  19. CYP2C9 Genotypes Modify Benzodiazepine-Related Fall Risk: Original Results From Three Studies With Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Annelies C; Ziere, Gijsbertus; Broer, Linda; Swart, Karin M A; Enneman, Anke W; van Dijk, Suzanne C; van Wijngaarden, Janneke P; van der Zwaluw, Nikita L; Brouwer-Brolsma, Elske M; Dhonukshe-Rutten, Rosalie A M; van Schoor, Natasja M; Zillikens, M Carola; van Gelder, Teun; de Vries, Oscar J; Lips, Paul; Deeg, Dorly J H; de Groot, Lisette C P G M; Hofman, Albert; Witkamp, Renger F; Uitterlinden, André G; Stricker, Bruno H; van der Velde, Nathalie

    2017-01-01

    To investigate whether the CYP2C9*2 and *3 variants modify benzodiazepine-related fall risk. Three prospective studies; the Rotterdam Study, B-PROOF, and LASA. Community-dwelling individuals living in or near five Dutch cities. There were 11,485 participants aged ≥55 years. Fall incidents were recorded prospectively. Benzodiazepine use was determined using pharmacy dispensing records or interviews. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age and sex were applied to determine the association between benzodiazepine use and fall risk stratified for CYP2C9 genotype and comparing benzodiazepine users to nonusers. The results of the three studies were combined applying meta-analysis. Within benzodiazepine users, the association between genotypes and fall risk was also assessed. Three thousand seven hundred five participants (32%) encountered a fall during 91,996 follow-up years, and 4% to 15% (depending on the study population) used benzodiazepines. CYP2C9 variants had frequencies of 13% for the *2 allele and 6% for the *3 allele. Compared to nonusers, current benzodiazepine use was associated with an 18% to 36% increased fall risk across studies with a combined hazard ratio (HR) = 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13; 1.40). CYP2C9*2 or *3 allele variants modified benzodiazepine-related fall risk. Compared to nonusers, those carrying a CYP2C9*2 or *3 allele and using benzodiazepines had a 45% increased fall risk (HR, 1.45 95% CI, 1.21; 1.73), whereas CYP2C9*1 homozygotes using benzodiazepines had no increased fall risk (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.90; 1.45). Within benzodiazepine users, having a CYP2C9*2 or *3 allele was associated with an increased fall risk (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.06; 1.72). Additionally, we observed an allele dose effect; heterozygous allele carriers had a fall risk of (HR = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.05; 1.61), and homozygous allele carriers of (HR = 1.91 95% CI, 1.23; 2.96). CYP2C9*2 and *3 allele variants modify benzodiazepine-related fall risk. Those

  20. Photocatalytic oxidation of indoor toluene: Process risk analysis and influence of relative humidity, photocatalysts, and VUV irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Weirong; Dai, Jiusong; Liu, Feifei; Bao, Jiaze; Wang, Yan; Yang, Yong; Yang, Yanan; Zhao, Dongye

    2012-01-01

    Concentrations of 13 gaseous intermediates in photocatalytic oxidation (PCO) of toluene in indoor air were determined in real-time by proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry and desorption intensities of 7 adsorbed intermediates on the surface of photocatalysts were detected by temperature‐programmed desorption‐mass spectrometry. Effects of relative humidity (RH), photocatalysts, and vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) irradiation on the distribution and category of the intermediates and health risk influence index (η) were investigated. RH enhances the formation rate of hydroxide radicals, leading to more intermediates with higher oxidation states in gas phase. N doping promotes the separation of photo-generated electrons and holes and enhances PCO activity accordingly. VUV irradiation results in higher mineralization rate and more intermediates with higher oxidation states and lower toxicity e.g. carboxylic acids. Health risk analysis indicates that higher RH, N doping of TiO 2 , and VUV lead to “greener” intermediates and smaller η. Finally, a conceptual diagram was proposed to exhibit the scenario of η varied with extent of mineralization for various toxicities of inlet pollutants. Highlights: ► 13 volatile intermediates in PCO of toluene were determined in real-time by PTR-MS. ► 7 adsorbed intermediates on surface of photocatalyst were determined by TPD-MS. ► Higher RH, N doping of TiO 2 , and VUV irradiation lead to “greener” intermediates. ► Health risk index relies on extent of mineralization and toxicities of inlet VOCs.

  1. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  2. Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    stations located in the North Adriatic coastal areas from 1989 to 2011. These data, together with the sea-level rise scenarios for the considered future timeframe, represent the input for the application of the Joint Probability method (Pugh and Vassie, 1979), which allows the evaluation of the maximum height of extreme storm surge events with different return period and the number of extreme events per year. The methodology uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, process, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to integrate stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the analysis in order to obtain a total risk index in the considered region. The final outputs are represented by GIS-based risk maps which allow the communication of the potential consequences of extreme storm surge to decision makers and stakeholders. Moreover, they can support the establishment of relative priorities for intervention through the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities. Finally the produced output can represent a basis for definition of storm surge hazard and storm surge risk management plans according to the Floods Directive. The preliminary results of the RRA application in the CLIMDAT project will be here presented and discussed.

  3. Analysis of personality traits as a risk factor in crash related trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Vineet; Goyal, Rahul; Singh, Ajai; Sharma, Vineet; Srivastava, Rajeshwer Nath; Kumar, Santosh; Kumar, Ashish

    2016-09-01

    Due to increasing stress, individual personality traits are becoming a significant contributor to CRT (Crash Related Trauma). In the present study, we hypothesized that there will be no difference in personality characteristics of CRT patients and control subjects and there will be no association between trauma and personality characteristics of CRT patients. A total of 119 cases and 112 controls of age >18 years were selected as per criteria decided. After obtaining ethical clearance, patients presenting to the emergency orthopedic unit were included in the study. After primary management all enrolled subjects were assessed by ICD 10 module screening questionnaire and analyzed for nine personality traits, subject to written informed consent. Of all the cases enrolled 82.35% were males. Impulsive personality trait is found in 84.78% (39/46) cases. There were 46 motorcyclists out of 119 cases enrolled. Most of the personality traits showed a statistical significant association (p personality characteristics which accounted for 84.78% and 82.61% cases respectively. These traits showed a statistical significant association with CRT.

  4. Toxoplasma gondii infection in Kyrgyzstan: seroprevalence, risk factor analysis, and estimate of congenital and AIDS-related toxoplasmosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gulnara Minbaeva

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: HIV-prevalence, as well as incidence of zoonotic parasitic diseases like cystic echinococcosis, has increased in the Kyrgyz Republic due to fundamental socio-economic changes after the breakdown of the Soviet Union. The possible impact on morbidity and mortality caused by Toxoplasma gondii infection in congenital toxoplasmosis or as an opportunistic infection in the emerging AIDS pandemic has not been reported from Kyrgyzstan. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We screened 1,061 rural and 899 urban people to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in 2 representative but epidemiologically distinct populations in Kyrgyzstan. The rural population was from a typical agricultural district where sheep husbandry is a major occupation. The urban population was selected in collaboration with several diagnostic laboratories in Bishkek, the largest city in Kyrgyzstan. We designed a questionnaire that was used on all rural subjects so a risk-factor analysis could be undertaken. The samples from the urban population were anonymous and only data with regard to age and gender was available. Estimates of putative cases of congenital and AIDS-related toxoplasmosis in the whole country were made from the results of the serology. Specific antibodies (IgG against Triton X-100 extracted antigens of T. gondii tachyzoites from in vitro cultures were determined by ELISA. Overall seroprevalence of infection with T. gondii in people living in rural vs. urban areas was 6.2% (95%CI: 4.8-7.8 (adjusted seroprevalence based on census figures 5.1%, 95% CI 3.9-6.5, and 19.0% (95%CI: 16.5-21.7 (adjusted 16.4%, 95% CI 14.1-19.3, respectively, without significant gender-specific differences. The seroprevalence increased with age. Independently low social status increased the risk of Toxoplasma seropositivity while increasing numbers of sheep owned decreased the risk of seropositivity. Water supply, consumption of unpasteurized milk products or undercooked

  5. Sector model analysis of risk on cross-jurisdictional treatment of disaster waste related to the Great East Japan Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagashima, Miori; Itokawa, Etsuko; Ozuka, Yohei

    2012-01-01

    This study addressed the controversial issue of disaster waste treatment in the reconstruction efforts following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Using the Sector Model (Matsumoto 2009), we categorized a range of actions taken in relation to the cross-jurisdictional treatment into the four sectors, government, industry, academia, and private. The analysis through this Sector Model made it possible to map the entire layout of waste treatment, inclusive of less-visible industry and academia sectors. Accordingly, we have argued that differences of risk awareness are not necessarily due to sector differences but rather depend on two aspects of the disaster waste treatment; the safety levels and the nationwide treatment of waste in Japan. We further suggest that the discrepancy in the arguments on safety levels emerged as a result of scientific under-determination and cross-jurisdictional treatment from social and/or political under-determination. (author)

  6. Risk sharing relations and enforcement mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barr, A.; Dekker, M.; Fafchamps, M.

    2008-01-01

    We investigate whether the set of available enforcement mechanisms affects the formation of risk sharing relations by applying dyadic regression analysis to data from a specifically designed behavioural experiment, two surveys and a genealogical mapping exercise. During the experiment participants

  7. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  8. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  9. The role of genes in talking about overweight: an analysis of discourse on genetics, overweight and health risks in relation to nutrigenomics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Komduur, R.; te Molder, Hedwig Frederica Maria

    2014-01-01

    This study examines whether the assumptions embedded in nutrigenomics, especially the alleged relation between information about personal health risks and healthy behaviour, match how people account for the relation between food, health and genes in everyday life. We draw on discourse analysis to

  10. Victimization and Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Related Risk Among Transgender Women in India: A Latent Profile Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willie, Tiara C; Chakrapani, Venkatesan; White Hughto, Jaclyn M; Kershaw, Trace S

    2017-12-01

    Globally, transgender women (TGW) experience multiple forms of victimization such as violence and discrimination that can place them at risk for poor sexual health. To date, research overlooks the heterogeneity in experiences of victimization among TGW. Furthermore, few studies have examined the association between victimization and sexual risk among TGW in India, despite the high burden of HIV and victimization in this community. Latent profile analysis was performed to identify patterns of victimization in a convenience sample of 299 TGW recruited from nongovernmental organizations across four states in India. Analysis of covariance was performed to examine differences in sexual risk (i.e., alcohol use before sex; inconsistent condom use with a male regular partner, a male causal partner, and a male paying partner; and having multiple sexual partners) between latent profiles. Five distinct profiles of Indian TGW were identified based on the type and severity of victimization: (1) Low victimization, (2) High verbal police victimization, (3) High verbal and physical police victimization, (4) Moderate victimization, and (5) High victimization. While controlling for age, education, income, HIV status, and marital status, results revealed that TGW in the moderate victimization and high victimization profiles had higher sexual risk than TGW in the low victimization and high verbal police victimization profiles. In addition, TGW in high verbal and physical police victimization profile had higher sexual risk than TGW in low victimization profile. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring sexual risk reduction interventions to the specific needs of TGW based on patterns of victimization.

  11. CYP2C9 Genotypes Modify Benzodiazepine-Related Fall Risk: Original Results From Three Studies With Meta-Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ham, Annelies C.; Ziere, Gijsbertus; Broer, Linda; Swart, Karin M. A.; Enneman, Anke W.; van Dijk, Suzanne C.; van Wijngaarden, Janneke P.; van der Zwaluw, Nikita L.; Brouwer-Brolsma, Elske M.; Dhonukshe-Rutten, Rosalie A. M.; van Schoor, Natasja M.; Zillikens, M. Carola; van Gelder, Teun; de Vries, Oscar J.; Lips, Paul; Deeg, Dorly J. H.; de Groot, Lisette C. P. G. M.; Hofman, Albert; Witkamp, Renger F.; Uitterlinden, André G.; Stricker, Bruno H.; van der Velde, Nathalie

    2017-01-01

    To investigate whether the CYP2C9*2 and *3 variants modify benzodiazepine-related fall risk. Three prospective studies; the Rotterdam Study, B-PROOF, and LASA. Community-dwelling individuals living in or near five Dutch cities. There were 11,485 participants aged ≥55 years. Fall incidents were

  12. Employment relations, flexibility and risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Carsten Strøby

    Employment relations literature often distinguishes between social democratic/corporatist models of employment relations and liberal models of employment relations as they are seen as opposite or at least different ways of organizing labor markets. They are often characterized as having very...... different risk profiles in terms of relationships between employees, employers, and the state. Low levels of labor market regulation very often characterize the liberal models of employment relations as we know them from, for instance, the USA and the UK. This means that employment conditions are very often...... insecure and that the burden of unemployment risk mostly lies with the employees rather than the employer. Corporatist – or social democratic – employment relations models are, in contrast to the liberal models, often characterized by stricter regulation of the labor market and by high standards...

  13. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  14. Risk of colorectal cancer in relation to frequency and total amount of red meat consumption. Systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolińska, Katarzyna; Paluszkiewicz, Piotr

    2010-08-30

    The colon and rectum are common sites of food-related cancer in developed countries. Recent studies strongly suggest that red meat intake is associated with colon cancer, whereas for rectal cancer such an association still needs to be proved. The aim of the study was to assess the role of total amount and frequency of red meat intake in colorectal carcinogenesis based on published data using meta-analysis methods. The literature published until 2009 was selected from: MEDLINE, PubMed, Scopus, Embase, CancerLit, Google Scholar and Cochrane Library databases. The used search terms were: colorectal cancer, colon cancer, rectal cancer, meat intake, red meat intake, red meat consumption, meat consumption, colorectal cancer risk, colon cancer risk, rectal cancer risk and lifestyle. Articles investigating red meat intake of more often than once a day or 50 g per day were reviewed and selected for further analysis. Twenty-two studies fulfilled the established criteria. A meta-analysis confirmed the carcinogenic effect of the consumption of over 50 g of red meat per day for the colon (relative risk 1.21, 1.07-1.37) but not for the rectum (relative risk 1.30, 0.90-1.89). Red meat intake more frequently than once a day can induce both colonic (relative risk 1.37, 1.09-1.71) and rectal cancer (relative risk 1.43, 1.24-1.64). Red meat intake is associated with elevated risk of developing colorectal cancer. The frequency of red meat consumption rather than total amount of consumed meat is associated with a higher risk of colorectal carcinogenesis.

  15. Dextran-related complications in head and neck microsurgery: do the benefits outweigh the risks? A prospective randomized analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Disa, Joseph J; Polvora, Virginia P; Pusic, Andrea L; Singh, Bhuvinesh; Cordeiro, Peter G

    2003-11-01

    , pulmonary edema, pleural effusion, and pneumonia) was as follows: low-molecular-weight dextran 120 hours, 51 percent; low-molecular-weight dextran 48 hours, 29 percent; and aspirin, 7 percent. Analysis of these data suggests that the method of prophylaxis had no effect on overall flap survival. However, the incidence of systemic complications was significantly related to the method of prophylaxis, with patients receiving low-molecular-weight dextran 120 hours and 48 hours at a 7.2 and 3.9 times greater relative risk, respectively, of developing a systemic complication compared with patients receiving aspirin. The results of this study have eliminated the routine use of low-molecular-weight dextran prophylaxis at our institution in an effort to reduce morbidity in head and neck microsurgical reconstruction.

  16. Ergonomic analysis for the assessment of the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorder in forestry operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raimondo Gallo

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The risk to run into a Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorder (WMSD is very high when operating in the primary sector. As a matter of fact the professional illnesses related to the WMSD in Italy are increasing. Nowadays the assessment of the WMSD in the primary sector is performed mainly in the agricultural sector, considering different agronomical activities; for the forestry sector, only few documents reported an ergonomic evaluation. The lack of available information on this topic in the forestry sector, as well as the similarity with the agricultural sector, drives the interest to the assessment of the conditions that expose workers to WMSD risks in forestry operations. Four different assessment approaches were applied in this study. These tools permitted to classify which are the exposures and if there is the presence of WMSD risk for forest operators. The approaches are respectively the OCRA checklist and the RNLE equation, both recognized as ISO standards, as well as OWAS and REBA, recommended by ISO standards. The first approach focusses on the risk due to repetitive and stressed movements, while the second evaluates the risk of injures due to the manual movement of loads. Meanwhile OWAS and REBA detect the possibility of injures due to wrong postures during the work. These approaches were applied for the cutting operations with chainsaw. Since the evaluation requires high levels of attention and also because it was necessary to gain a good level of safety for the surveyor, a digital camera was used to film the operative activities. Then, the movies were analysed in office. Aim of the research is to analyse if it is possible to apply the approaches suggested by ISO standards in order to assess the most dangerous activities that, when not properly carried out, could be the cause of WMSD in forestry operations. The study showed that during the use of the chainsaw the index of risk of professional injures was overpassed several times

  17. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  18. Secondary Analysis and Integration of Existing Data to Elucidate the Genetic Architecture of Cancer Risk and Related Outcomes, R21 | Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This funding opportunity announcement (FOA) encourages applications that propose to conduct secondary data analysis and integration of existing datasets and database resources, with the ultimate aim to elucidate the genetic architecture of cancer risk and related outcomes. The goal of this initiative is to address key scientific questions relevant to cancer epidemiology by supporting the analysis of existing genetic or genomic datasets, possibly in combination with environmental, outcomes, behavioral, lifestyle, and molecular profiles data.

  19. Secondary Analysis and Integration of Existing Data to Elucidate the Genetic Architecture of Cancer Risk and Related Outcomes, R01 | Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This funding opportunity announcement (FOA) encourages applications that propose to conduct secondary data analysis and integration of existing datasets and database resources, with the ultimate aim to elucidate the genetic architecture of cancer risk and related outcomes. The goal of this initiative is to address key scientific questions relevant to cancer epidemiology by supporting the analysis of existing genetic or genomic datasets, possibly in combination with environmental, outcomes, behavioral, lifestyle, and molecular profiles data.

  20. Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents Related to Sleepiness at the Wheel: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bioulac, Stéphanie; Franchi, Jean-Arthur Micoulaud; Arnaud, Mickael; Sagaspe, Patricia; Moore, Nicholas; Salvo, Francesco; Philip, Pierre

    2017-10-01

    Sleepiness at the wheel is widely believed to be a cause of motor vehicle accidents. Nevertheless, a systematic review of studies investigating this relationship has not yet been published. The objective of this study was to quantify the relationship between sleepiness at the wheel and motor vehicle accidents. A systematic review was performed using Medline, Scopus, and ISI Web of Science. The outcome measure of interest was motor vehicle accident defined as involving four- or two-wheeled vehicles in road traffic, professional and nonprofessional drivers, with or without objective consequences. The exposure was sleepiness at the wheel defined as self-reported sleepiness at the wheel. Studies were included if they provided adjusted risk estimates of motor vehicle accidents related to sleepiness at the wheel. Risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were extracted and pooled as odds ratios (ORs) using a random-effect model. Heterogeneity was quantified using Q statistics and the I2 index. The potential causes of heterogeneity were investigated using meta-regressions. Ten cross-sectional studies (51,520 participants), six case-control studies (4904 participants), and one cohort study (13,674 participants) were included. Sleepiness at the wheel was associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (pooled OR 2.51 [95% CI 1.87; 3.39]). A significant heterogeneity was found between the individual risk estimates (Q = 93.21; I2 = 83%). Sleepiness at the wheel increases the risk of motor vehicle accidents and should be considered when investigating fitness to drive. Further studies are required to explore the nature of this relationship. PROSPERO 2015 CRD42015024805. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. A Baseline Historical Analysis of Neck and Back-Related Morbidity in the U.S. Army: Occupational Risks Potentially Related to Head-Supported Mass

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-09-01

    disorder with myelopathy, unspecified region 722.73 Intervertebral disc disorder w/ myelopathy, lumbar region 721.3 Lumbosacral spondylosis without...Disc disorder, lumbar region 721.42 Spondylosis with myelopathy, lumbar region 724.6 Disorders of sacrum 738.4 Acquired spondylolisthesis...particular, increases risk for spondylosis and accentuates age-related decreases in spinal lordosis(20). In addition to the ballistic protection

  2. Association analysis identifies TLR7 and TLR8 as novel risk genes in asthma and related disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller-Larsen, Steffen; Nyegaard, Mette; Haagerup, Annette

    2008-01-01

    the TLR7 and TLR8 genes. METHODS: We investigated the involvement of TLR7 and TLR8 in the aetiology of asthma and related disorders by a family based association analysis of two independently ascertained family samples comprising 540 and 424 individuals from 135 and 100 families, respectively. Ten...

  3. Are Eating Disorders and Related Symptoms Risk Factors for Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors? A Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, April R; Velkoff, Elizabeth A; Ribeiro, Jessica D; Franklin, Joseph

    2018-02-14

    This meta-analysis addressed whether eating disorders (EDs) are risk factors (i.e., longitudinal predictors) for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. We identified 2,611 longitudinal studies published through August 1, 2017. Inclusion required studies include at least one longitudinal analysis predicting suicide ideation, attempt, or death using an ED diagnosis and/or symptom. Fourteen studies (42 prediction cases) met criteria. Results indicated that clinically diagnosed EDs and disordered eating symptoms were significant but weak predictors of suicide attempts but not death. Effects remained weak when moderators were considered. By reviewing the methodological limitations of previous research, these results highlight avenues for future research. © 2018 The American Association of Suicidology.

  4. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimates cumulative incidence of health-related events in competing risk settings: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

    2018-01-01

    Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimates cumulative incidence in competing risks (CRs) settings. The extent of overestimation (or its clinical significance) has been questioned, and CRs methods are infrequently used. This meta-analysis compares the Kaplan-Meier method to the cumulative incidence function (CIF), a CRs method. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, Web of Science (1992-2016), and article bibliographies for studies estimating cumulative incidence using the Kaplan-Meier method and CIF. For studies with sufficient data, we calculated pooled risk ratios (RRs) comparing Kaplan-Meier and CIF estimates using DerSimonian and Laird random effects models. We performed stratified meta-analyses by clinical area, rate of CRs (CRs/events of interest), and follow-up time. Of 2,192 identified abstracts, we included 77 studies in the systematic review and meta-analyzed 55. The pooled RR demonstrated the Kaplan-Meier estimate was 1.41 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36, 1.47] times higher than the CIF. Overestimation was highest among studies with high rates of CRs [RR = 2.36 (95% CI: 1.79, 3.12)], studies related to hepatology [RR = 2.60 (95% CI: 2.12, 3.19)], and obstetrics and gynecology [RR = 1.84 (95% CI: 1.52, 2.23)]. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the cumulative incidence across 10 clinical areas. Using CRs methods will ensure accurate results inform clinical and policy decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Equivalent linear and nonlinear site response analysis for design and risk assessment of safety-related nuclear structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolisetti, Chandrakanth; Whittaker, Andrew S.; Mason, H. Benjamin; Almufti, Ibrahim; Willford, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Performed equivalent linear and nonlinear site response analyses using industry-standard numerical programs. • Considered a wide range of sites and input ground motions. • Noted the practical issues encountered while using these programs. • Examined differences between the responses calculated from different programs. • Results of biaxial and uniaxial analyses are compared. - Abstract: Site response analysis is a precursor to soil-structure interaction analysis, which is an essential component in the seismic analysis of safety-related nuclear structures. Output from site response analysis provides input to soil-structure interaction analysis. Current practice in calculating site response for safety-related nuclear applications mainly involves the equivalent linear method in the frequency-domain. Nonlinear time-domain methods are used by some for the assessment of buildings, bridges and petrochemical facilities. Several commercial programs have been developed for site response analysis but none of them have been formally validated for large strains and high frequencies, which are crucial for the performance assessment of safety-related nuclear structures. This study sheds light on the applicability of some industry-standard equivalent linear (SHAKE) and nonlinear (DEEPSOIL and LS-DYNA) programs across a broad range of frequencies, earthquake shaking intensities, and sites ranging from stiff sand to hard rock, all with a focus on application to safety-related nuclear structures. Results show that the equivalent linear method is unable to reproduce the high frequency acceleration response, resulting in almost constant spectral accelerations in the short period range. Analysis using LS-DYNA occasionally results in some unrealistic high frequency acceleration ‘noise’, which can be removed by smoothing the piece-wise linear backbone curve. Analysis using DEEPSOIL results in abrupt variations in the peak strains of consecutive soil layers

  6. An open-source textbook for teaching climate-related risk analysis using the R computing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Applegate, P. J.; Keller, K.

    2015-12-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions lead to increased surface air temperatures and sea level rise. In turn, sea level rise increases the risks of flooding for people living near the world's coastlines. Our own research on assessing sea level rise-related risks emphasizes both Earth science and statistics. At the same time, the free, open-source computing environment R is growing in popularity among statisticians and scientists due to its flexibility and graphics capabilities, as well as its large library of existing functions. We have developed a set of laboratory exercises that introduce students to the Earth science and statistical concepts needed for assessing the risks presented by climate change, particularly sea-level rise. These exercises will be published as a free, open-source textbook on the Web. Each exercise begins with a description of the Earth science and/or statistical concepts that the exercise teaches, with references to key journal articles where appropriate. Next, students are asked to examine in detail a piece of existing R code, and the exercise text provides a clear explanation of how the code works. Finally, students are asked to modify the existing code to produce a well-defined outcome. We discuss our experiences in developing the exercises over two separate semesters at Penn State, plus using R Markdown to interweave explanatory text with sample code and figures in the textbook.

  7. Health-related direct-to-consumer genetic tests: a public health assessment and analysis of practices related to Internet-based tests for risk of thrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, K A B; Robitaille, J; Dowling, N F; Parrado, A R; Fishman, J; Bradley, L A; Moore, C A; Khoury, M J

    2009-01-01

    Recent years have seen increased concern about direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing (i.e., the sale and use of genetic tests without involving a health care provider). Numerous professional organizations have developed policies in this area. However, little systematic evidence exists to inform public policy about these tests. We conducted a systematic search to identify genetic tests that are sold DTC without involving a health care provider. We evaluated the practices of companies offering DTC genetic tests for risk of thrombosis using criteria from multiple sources and a minimal set of key practices. We identified 84 instances of currently available health-related DTC genetic tests sold on 27 Web sites; the most common were for pharmacogenomics (12), risk of thrombosis (10), and nutrigenomics (10). For the DTC genetic tests for risk of thrombosis, we found low adherence to recommendations. Online information was frequently incomplete and had low agreement with professional recommendations. Our findings document the rapid growth in the availability of health-related DTC genetic tests and highlight the need to improve the delivery of DTC genetic tests. A major implication of this study is the need for the scientific and medical community to develop consistent recommendations to increase their impact. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  8. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  9. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  10. Application of multivariate statistical analysis in the pollution and health risk of traffic-related heavy metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebqa'ai, Mohammad; Ibrahim, Bashar

    2017-12-01

    This study aims to analyse the heavy metal pollutants in Jeddah, the second largest city in the Gulf Cooperation Council with a population exceeding 3.5 million, and many vehicles. Ninety-eight street dust samples were collected seasonally from the six major roads as well as the Jeddah Beach, and subsequently digested using modified Leeds Public Analyst method. The heavy metals (Fe, Zn, Mn, Cu, Cd, and Pb) were extracted from the ash using methyl isobutyl ketone as solvent extraction and eventually analysed by atomic absorption spectroscopy. Multivariate statistical techniques, principal component analysis (PCA), and hierarchical cluster analysis were applied to these data. Heavy metal concentrations were ranked according to the following descending order: Fe > Zn > Mn > Cu > Pb > Cd. In order to study the pollution and health risk from these heavy metals as well as estimating their effect on the environment, pollution indices, integrated pollution index, enrichment factor, daily dose average, hazard quotient, and hazard index were all analysed. The PCA showed high levels of Zn, Fe, and Cd in Al Kurnish road, while these elements were consistently detected on King Abdulaziz and Al Madina roads. The study indicates that high levels of Zn and Pb pollution were recorded for major roads in Jeddah. Six out of seven roads had high pollution indices. This study is the first step towards further investigations into current health problems in Jeddah, such as anaemia and asthma.

  11. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  12. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  13. A retrospective analysis of caries treatment and development in relation to assessed caries risk in an adult population in Sweden.

    OpenAIRE

    Söderström, Ulf; Johansson, Ingegerd; Sunnegårdh-Grönberg, Karin

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Public Dental Service of Västerbotten County (Sweden) recommends using population-based prevention strategies combined with an individual strategy for high-risk patients to manage caries. To facilitate this management strategy, all patients are evaluated for their risk of developing caries in the coming year using defined criteria. Using caries risk scoring over a seven-year period, the present study evaluates prophylactic measures, caries development, and non-operative treatm...

  14. Dietary Intake of Meat Cooking-Related Mutagens (HCAs) and Risk of Colorectal Adenoma and Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiavarini, Manuela; Bertarelli, Gaia; Minelli, Liliana; Fabiani, Roberto

    2017-05-18

    Much evidence suggests that the positive association between meat intake and colorectal adenoma (CRA) and cancer (CRC) risk is mediated by mutagenic compounds generated during cooking at high temperature. A number of epidemiological studies have estimated the effect of meat-related mutagens intake on CRC/CRA risk with contradictory and sometimes inconsistent results. A literature search was carried out (PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus) to identify articles reporting the relationship between the intake of meat-related mutagens (2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazo[4,5-b]pyridine (PhIP), 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo[4,5-f] quinoxaline (MeIQx), 2-amino-3,4,8-trimethylimidazo[4,5-f] quinoxaline: DiMeIQx, benzo(a) pyrene (B(a)P) and "meat derived mutagenic activity" (MDM)) and CRC/CRA risk. A random-effect model was used to calculate the risk association. Thirty-nine studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Polled CRA risk (15229 cases) was significantly increased by intake of PhIP (OR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.13,1.28; p CRA risk in association with PhIP, MDM, and MeIQx. CRC risk (21,344 cases) was increased by uptake of MeIQx (OR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.04,1.25; p = 0.004), DiMeIQx (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02,1.22; p = 0.014) and MDM (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.06,1.19; p meat at high temperature may be responsible of its carcinogenicity.

  15. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  16. MiRNA-Related SNPs and Risk of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma and Barrett's Esophagus: Post Genome-Wide Association Analysis in the BEACON Consortium.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew F Buas

    Full Text Available Incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA has increased substantially in recent decades. Multiple risk factors have been identified for EA and its precursor, Barrett's esophagus (BE, such as reflux, European ancestry, male sex, obesity, and tobacco smoking, and several germline genetic variants were recently associated with disease risk. Using data from the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON genome-wide association study (GWAS of 2,515 EA cases, 3,295 BE cases, and 3,207 controls, we examined single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that potentially affect the biogenesis or biological activity of microRNAs (miRNAs, small non-coding RNAs implicated in post-transcriptional gene regulation, and deregulated in many cancers, including EA. Polymorphisms in three classes of genes were examined for association with risk of EA or BE: miRNA biogenesis genes (157 SNPs, 21 genes; miRNA gene loci (234 SNPs, 210 genes; and miRNA-targeted mRNAs (177 SNPs, 158 genes. Nominal associations (P0.50, and we did not find evidence for interactions between variants analyzed and two risk factors for EA/BE (smoking and obesity. This analysis provides the most extensive assessment to date of miRNA-related SNPs in relation to risk of EA and BE. While common genetic variants within components of the miRNA biogenesis core pathway appear unlikely to modulate susceptibility to EA or BE, further studies may be warranted to examine potential associations between unassessed variants in miRNA genes and targets with disease risk.

  17. Health risks, social relations and class: an analysis of occupational health discourse in Finnish newspaper and women's magazine articles 1961-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varje, Pekka; Väänänen, Ari

    2016-03-01

    In this article we examine the treatment of psychosocial risks in public occupational health discourse in Finnish newspaper and magazine articles between the 1960s and 2000s, using discourse analysis. Building on class theories, our aim is to investigate how class expectations have been linked with the redefinition of occupational health risks during this period. Our results suggest that as social relations at the workplace became problematised in the occupational health discussions after the 1970s, the image of the hierarchical and naturally conflictual organisation was replaced by idealised middle-class notions of smoothly functioning, harmonious organisations that offered rewarding work experiences. However, this same period since the late 1970s has also been characterised by increasing economic competition and neoliberal market ideology. We conclude that the concern about work-related psychosocial risks and health problems expressed in Finnish newspaper and magazine articles during the last three decades has been shaped in many respects by a collision between the dominant middle-class expectations of harmony and equality and the neoliberal production of competition and inequality. © 2015 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

  18. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  19. Male pattern baldness in relation to prostate cancer risk: an analysis in the VITamins And Lifestyle (VITAL) cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Cindy Ke; Littman, Alyson J.; Levine, Paul H.; Hoffman, Heather J.; Cleary, Sean D.; White, Emily; Cook, Michael B.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND Male pattern baldness and prostate cancer may share common pathophysiological mechanisms in terms of advancing age, heritability, and endogenous hormones. Results from previous epidemiologic studies are inconsistent. Therefore, we investigated the association of prostate cancer risk with male pattern baldness at age 30 years, age 45 years, and baseline (median age=60.5 years) in the VITamins And Lifestyle (VITAL) cohort study. METHODS We included 32,583 men who were 50–76 years and without prior cancer diagnosis (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) at the start of follow-up. First primary incident prostate cancers were ascertained via linkage to the western Washington Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regressions with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS During follow-up (median=9 years), 2,306 incident prostate cancers were diagnosed. Male pattern baldness at age 30 years, age 45 years, and baseline were not significantly associated with overall or subtypes of prostate cancer. CONCLUSION This study did not provide support for the hypothesis that male pattern baldness may be a marker for subsequent prostate cancer. Previous evidence indicates that a distinct class of frontal with vertex balding may be associated with increased prostate cancer risk, but all such balding classes were captured as a single exposure category by the VITAL cohort questionnaire. PMID:25492530

  20. Male pattern baldness in relation to prostate cancer risks: an analysis in the VITamins and lifestyle (VITAL) cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Cindy Ke; Littman, Alyson J; Levine, Paul H; Hoffman, Heather J; Cleary, Sean D; White, Emily; Cook, Michael B

    2015-03-01

    Male pattern baldness and prostate cancer may share common pathophysiological mechanisms in terms of advancing age, heritability, and endogenous hormones. Results from previous epidemiologic studies are inconsistent. Therefore, we investigated the association of prostate cancer risks with male pattern baldness at age 30 years, age 45 years, and baseline (median age = 60.5 years) in the VITamins And Lifestyle (VITAL) cohort study. We included 32,583 men who were aged 50-76 years and without prior cancer diagnosis (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) at the start of follow-up. First primary incident prostate cancers were ascertained via linkage to the western Washington Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regressions with adjustment for potential confounders. During follow-up (median = 9 years), 2,306 incident prostate cancers were diagnosed. Male pattern baldness at age 30 years, age 45 years, and baseline were not statistically significantly associated with overall or subtypes of prostate cancer. This study did not provide support for the hypothesis that male pattern baldness may be a marker for subsequent prostate cancer. Previous evidence indicates that a distinct class of frontal with vertex balding may be associated with increased risk of aggressive prostate cancer, but all such balding classes were captured as a single exposure category by the VITAL cohort questionnaire. Prostate 75:415-423, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Risk Aversion Relates to Cognitive Ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making, rather than to risk preferences....

  2. Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences....

  3. Age- and risk-related appropriateness of the use of available influenza vaccines in the Italian elderly population is advantageous: results from a budget impact analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbieri, M; Capri, S; Waure, C DE; Boccalini, S; Panatto, D

    2017-12-01

    Nowadays, four different types of influenza vaccines are available in Italy: trivalent (TIV), quadrivalent (QIV), MF59-adjuvanted (aTIV) and intradermal TIV (idTIV) inactivated vaccines. Recently, a concept of the appropriateness (i.e. according to the age and risk factors) of the use of different vaccines has been established in Italy. We conducted a budget impact analysis of switching to a policy, in which the Italian elderly (who carry the major disease burden) received the available vaccines according to their age and risk profile. A novel budget impact model was constructed with a time horizon of one influenza season. In the reference scenario the cohort of Italian elderly individuals could receive either available vaccine according to 2017/18 season market share. The alternative scenario envisaged the administration of TIV/QIV to people aged 65-74 years and at low risk of developing influenza-related complications, while aTIV/idTIV were allocated to high-risk 65-74-year-olds and all subjects aged ≥ 75 years. Switching to the alternative scenario would result in both significant health benefits and net budget savings. Particularly, it would be possible to prevent an additional 8201 cases of laboratory-confirmed influenza, 988 complications, 355 hospitalizations and 14 deaths. Despite the alternative strategy being associated with slightly higher vaccination costs, the total savings derived from fewer influenza events completely resets this increase with net budget savings of € 0.13 million. An immunization policy in which influenza vaccines are administered according to the age and risk profile of Italian elderly individuals is advisable.

  4. Risk of metabolic syndrome and its components in people with schizophrenia and related psychotic disorders, bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vancampfort, Davy; Stubbs, Brendon; Mitchell, Alex J; De Hert, Marc; Wampers, Martien; Ward, Philip B; Rosenbaum, Simon; Correll, Christoph U

    2015-10-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components are highly predictive of cardiovascular diseases. The primary aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the prevalence of MetS and its components in people with schizophrenia and related psychotic disorders, bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder, comparing subjects with different disorders and taking into account demographic variables and psychotropic medication use. The secondary aim was to compare the MetS prevalence in persons with any of the selected disorders versus matched general population controls. The pooled MetS prevalence in people with severe mental illness was 32.6% (95% CI: 30.8%-34.4%; N = 198; n = 52,678). Relative risk meta-analyses established that there was no significant difference in MetS prevalence in studies directly comparing schizophrenia versus bipolar disorder, and in those directly comparing bipolar disorder versus major depressive disorder. Only two studies directly compared people with schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, precluding meta-analytic calculations. Older age and a higher body mass index were significant moderators in the final demographic regression model (z = -3.6, p = 0.0003, r(2)  = 0.19). People treated with all individual antipsychotic medications had a significantly (ppeople with severe mental illness had a significantly increased risk for MetS (RR = 1.58; 95% CI: 1.35-1.86; p<0.001) and all its components, except for hypertension (p = 0.07). These data suggest that the risk for MetS is similarly elevated in the diagnostic subgroups of severe mental illness. Routine screening and multidisciplinary management of medical and behavioral conditions is needed in these patients. Risks of individual antipsychotics should be considered when making treatment choices. © 2015 World Psychiatric Association.

  5. Sovereign ratings in the post-crisis world : an analysis of actual, shadow and relative risk ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Basu, Kaushik; De, Supriyo; Ratha, Dilip; Timmer, Hans

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the evolution of sovereign credit ratings in the wake of the global financial crisis by studying changes in actual, shadow, and relative ratings between 2008 and 2012. For countries that do not have a rating from the major rating agencies, shadow ratings are estimated as a function of macroeconomic, structural, and governance variables. The shadow rating exercise confir...

  6. Analysis of blood parameters in relation to the risk of cardiovascular disease for older population in Kelantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabela, Z.; Ramzun, M. R.; Hana, M. M.; Zahirah, N. Z. N.; Ashikin, N. A. R. N. N.; Nursakinah, S.; Azhar, A. R.; Iskandar, S. M.

    2018-04-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is known to be the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and its complication is increasing among older people. Blood parameters including blood pressure (BP), glucose (BG), cholesterol (CHL) and uric acid (UA) are important aspects in maintaining a good condition of the cardiovascular system. The aim of this study is to determine the reference values of blood parameters among older population as well as to assess the association of CVD risk factors with the factors of age, gender and body mass index (BMI). Blood samples were collected from 400 older respondents (≥50 years) in Kota Bharu, Kelantan. The findings showed that respondents aged ≥60 years had significantly higher levels of BP and UA, but lower CHL than 50-59 years respondents (p<0.05). The males had significantly higher BP and lower CHL than the females (p<0.05). The respondents with BMI of ≥25 kgm-2 had significantly higher BP and BG than the respondents with BMI of <25 kgm-2 (p<0.05). There were significant associations between BP-BG, BG-UA and CHL-UA. It can be concluded that the levels of blood parameters are affected by the factors of age, gender and BMI.

  7. Trip report: workshop on risk analysis and geologic modeling in relation to the disposal of radioactive wastes into geological formations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claiborne, H.C.

    1977-01-01

    The Workshop was co-sponsored by the Commission of European Communities (CEC) and the Office of Economic Cooperation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA), with primary object being to promote international cooperation in developing and using risk assessment techniques for the long-term safety assessment of waste disposal. The attendance was restricted to specialists in the field and a few observers; 43 people were in attendance representing 14 different countries. Nothing particularly new or novel was presented nor any formal cooperation agreed upon. However, there was a feeling that continued informal cooperation was helpful and should be continued. Greater or lesser degrees of formality could be decided later. The U.S. program was definitely more advanced and larger in scope than the others that were discussed. Countries that seemed to have significant programs include the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, Sweden, and the CEC. Abstracts of papers are presented together with consensus reports on containment failure modes and geosphere transport modeling

  8. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  10. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  11. Risks of malignancies related to tofacitinib and biological drugs in rheumatoid arthritis: Systematic review, meta-analysis, and network meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maneiro, José Ramón; Souto, Alejandro; Gomez-Reino, Juan J

    2017-10-01

    To summarize and compare the risks of malignancies accompanying biologic DMARDs (b-DMARDs) and tofacitinib in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and long-term extension studies (LTEs). Articles in Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, and the Web of Science dated from 2000 to February 2015. Selection criteria were as follows: (1) focus on RCTs or LTEs in RA; (2) treatment with b-DMARDs or tofacitinib; (3) data on malignancies; and (4) a minimum follow-up of 12 weeks. Data included publication details, study design, risk of bias, number and types of malignancies, and patient characteristics and treatments. Of 113 articles and one updated report that were meta-analyzed, overall malignancies in RCTs showed odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) of 1.01 (0.72, 1.42) for all TNF antagonists, 1.12 (0.33, 3.81) for abatacept, 0.54 (0.20, 1.50) for rituximab, 0.70 (0.20, 2.41) for tocilizumab, and 2.39 (0.50, 11.5) for tofacitinib. Network meta-analysis of overall malignancies showed odds ratio (95% predictive intervals) of 1.68 (0.48-5.92) for infliximab, 0.79 (0.44-1.40) for etanercept, 0.93 (0.43-2.03) for adalimumab, 0.87 (0.28-2.75) for certolizumab, 0.87 (0.39-1.95) for golimumab, 1.04 (0.32-3.32) for abatacept, 0.58 (0.21-1.56) for rituximab, 0.60 (0.16-2.28) for tocilizumab, and 1.15 (0.24-5.47) for tofacitinib. Marginal numerical differences in the incidence rate of solid and hematological malignancies and non-melanoma skin cancers appeared in LTEs. In RCTs, treatment of RA with b-DMARDs or tofacitinib does not increase the risk for malignancies. Generalizability of the differences in the rate of specific malignancies encountered in LTEs requires continuous pharmacovigilance of real-world patients. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  13. Incidence and risk of treatment-related mortality with mTOR inhibitors everolimus and temsirolimus in cancer patients: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Xiang Qi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Two novel mammalian targets of rapamycin (mTOR inhibitors everolimus and temsirolimus are now approved by regulatory agencies and have been widely investigated among various types of solid tumors, but the risk of fatal adverse events (FAEs with these drugs is not well defined. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library databases for relevant trials. Eligible studies included prospective phase II and III trials evaluating everolimus and temsirolimus in patients with all malignancies and data on FAEs were available. Statistical analyses were conducted to calculate the summary incidence, RRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs by using either random effects or fixed effect models according to the heterogeneity of the included studies. RESULTS: A total of 3322 patients with various advanced solid tumors from 12 trials were included. The overall incidence of mTOR inhibitors associated FAEs was 1.8% (95%CI: 1.3-2.5%, and the incidences of everolimus related FAEs were comparable to that of temsirolimus (1.7% versus 1.8%. Compared with the controls, the use of mTOR inhibitors was associated with an increased risk of FAEs, with a RR of 3.24 (95%CI: 1.21-8.67, p = 0.019. On subgroup analysis, a non-statistically significant increase in the risk of FAEs was found according to different mTOR inhibitors, tumor types or controlled therapy. No evidence of publication bias was observed. CONCLUSION: With the present evidence, the use of mTOR inhibitors seems to increase the risk of FAEs in patients with advanced solid tumors. More high quality trials are still needed to investigate this association.

  14. 儿童情绪障碍相关因素的LOGISTIC回归分析%Logistic Regression Analysis of Related Risk Factors of Emotional Disorders in Children

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高鸿云; 冯金英; 徐俊冕; 郑士俊

    2001-01-01

    Objective: To identify the related psychosocial risk factors of emotional disorders in children. Methods:To use case-control approach in which. Diagnosis was made by clinical interview according to ICD-10 criteria. Eighty eight cases and controls separately filled out general condition inventory. The results were put into Logistic regression model for analysis. Results: The children with timid personality, without kindergarten education, or with parents who were administrative or technical personnel, were apt to have emotional disorders. The children who were usually counseled by their mothers had less emotional disorders than those were beaten. Conclusion: The emotional disorders were the results of multiple factors. Prevention of children's emotional disorders should be focused on the children's personality and family education.

  15. Associations of Polymorphisms in MTHFR Gene with the Risk of Age-Related Cataract in Chinese Han Population: A Genotype-Phenotype Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue-bin Wang

    Full Text Available Homocysteine (Hcy is a potential risk factor for age-related cataract (ARC. Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR is the key enzyme for Hcy metabolism, and variants of MTHFR may affect MTHFR enzyme activity. This study mainly evaluated the associations between variants in MTHFR gene, plasma MTHFR enzyme activity, total Hcy (tHcy levels and ARC risk in Chinese population. Four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in MTHFR gene were genotyped using the high-resolution melting (HRM method in 502 ARC patients (mean age, 70.2 [SD, 9.0], 46.0% male and 890 healthy controls (mean age, 67.1 [SD, 11.1], 47.6% male. The plasma MTHFR activity, folic acid (FA, vitamins B12 and B6 levels were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA. The plasma tHcy levels were measured by an automated enzymatic assay. After the Bonferroni correction, the minor allele T of SNP rs1801133 showed a significant association with an increased risk of overall ARC (OR = 1.26, P = 0.003. Consistent association was also found between SNP rs1801133 and cortical ARC risk (OR = 1.44, P = 0.003. Haplotype analyses revealed an adverse effect of the haplotype "C-A-T-C" (alleles in order of SNPs rs3737967, rs1801131, rs1801133 and rs9651118 on ARC risk (OR = 1.55, P = 0.003. Moreover, in a joint analysis of SNPs rs9651118 and rs1801133, subjects with two unfavorable genotypes had a 1.76-fold increased risk of ARC compared with the reference group, and a statistically significant dose-response trend (Ptrend = 0.001 was also observed. Further, in healthy controls and patients with cortical ARC, the allele T of SNP rs1801133 and the increasing number of unfavorable genotypes were significantly correlated with decreased MTHFR activity as well as increased tHcy levels. However, there was no significant association between FA, vitamins B12, B6 levels and MTHFR variants. Our data indicated that variants in MTHFR gene might individually and jointly influence susceptibility to ARC

  16. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

  17. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

  18. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  19. Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

    1990-01-01

    When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

  20. A Latent Class Analysis of Weight-Related Health Behaviors among 2- and 4-year College Students, and Associated Risk of Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathur, C; Stigler, M; Lust, K; Laska, M

    2016-01-01

    Little is known about the complex patterning of weight-related health behaviors in 2- and 4-year college students. The objective of this study was to identify and describe unique classes of weight-related health behaviors among college youth. Latent class analysis was used to identify homogenous, mutually exclusive classes of nine health behaviors which represent multiple theoretically/clinically relevant dimensions of obesity risk among 2- versus 4-year college students using cross-sectional statewide surveillance data (n= 17,584). Additionally, differences in class membership on selected sociodemographic characteristics were examined using a model-based approach. Analysis was conducted separately for both college groups, and 5 and 4 classes were identified for 2-and 4-year college students, respectively. Four classes were similar across 2-and 4-year college groups and were characterized as “mostly healthy dietary habits, active”, “moderately high screen time, active”, “moderately healthy dietary habits, inactive”, and “moderately high screen time, inactive”. “Moderately healthy dietary habits, high screen time” was the additional class unique to 2-year college students. These classes differed on a number of sociodemographic characteristics, including the proportion in each class who were classified as obese. Implications for prevention scientists and future intervention programs are considered. PMID:24990599

  1. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk" | Durrheim | South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South African Family Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 45, No 8 (2003) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk". DN Durrheim ...

  2. Sensitivity analysis and related analysis : A survey of statistical techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper reviews the state of the art in five related types of analysis, namely (i) sensitivity or what-if analysis, (ii) uncertainty or risk analysis, (iii) screening, (iv) validation, and (v) optimization. The main question is: when should which type of analysis be applied; which statistical

  3. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  4. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  5. Human Immunodeficiency Virus Related Knowledge, Risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There was poor HIV preventive practices; indicating ... Gyawali, et al.: HIV related knowledge, risk perception and practices among married women. Annals of Medical .... of this study correspond to the Indian, Nigerian and Iranian studies cited ...

  6. Roadway related tort liability and risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    This workbook provide government employees background information related to tort liability and risk management. Past experience with lawsuits against government entities are summarized. The reasons for the lawsuits and results are analyzed. The obje...

  7. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  8. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  9. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  10. Testing for changes in spatial relative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazelton, Martin L

    2017-07-30

    The spatial relative risk function is a useful tool for describing geographical variation in disease incidence. We consider the problem of comparing relative risk functions between two time periods, with the idea of detecting alterations in the spatial pattern of disease risk irrespective of whether there has been a change in the overall incidence rate. Using case-control datasets for each period, we use kernel smoothing methods to derive a test statistic based on the difference between the log-relative risk functions, which we term the log-relative risk ratio. For testing a null hypothesis of an unchanging spatial pattern of risk, we show how p-values can be computed using both randomization methods and an asymptotic normal approximation. The methodology is applied to data on campylobacteriosis from 2006 to 2013 in a region of New Zealand. We find clear evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of risk between those years, which can be explained in differences by response to a public health initiative between urban and rural communities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Dietary Intake of Meat Cooking-Related Mutagens (HCAs) and Risk of Colorectal Adenoma and Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Chiavarini, Manuela; Bertarelli, Gaia; Minelli, Liliana; Fabiani, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Much evidence suggests that the positive association between meat intake and colorectal adenoma (CRA) and cancer (CRC) risk is mediated by mutagenic compounds generated during cooking at high temperature. A number of epidemiological studies have estimated the effect of meat-related mutagens intake on CRC/CRA risk with contradictory and sometimes inconsistent results. A literature search was carried out (PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus) to identify articles reporting the relationship between...

  12. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  13. Association analysis of the dopamine D{sub 2} receptor gene in Tourette`s syndrome using the haplotype relative risk method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noethen, M.M.; Cichon, S.; Propping, P. [Univ. of Bonn (Germany)] [and others

    1994-09-15

    Comings et al. have recently reported a highly significant association between Tourette`s syndrome (TS) and a restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) of the dopamine D{sub 2} receptor gene (DRD2) locus. The A1 allele of the DRD2 Taq I RFLP was present in 45% of the Tourette patients compared with 25% of controls. We tried to replicate this finding by using the haplotype relative risk (HRR) method for association analysis. This method overcomes a major problem of conventional case-control studies, where undetected ethnic differences between patients and controls may result in a false-positive finding, by using parental alleles not inherited by the proband as control alleles. Sixty-one nuclear families encompassing an affected child and parents were typed for the DRD2 Taq I polymorphism. No significant differences in DRD2 A1 allele frequency were observed between TS probands, sub-populations of probands classified according to tic severity, or parental control alleles. Our data do not support the hypothesis that the DRD2 locus may act as a modifying gene in the expression of the disorder in TS probands. 40 refs., 1 tab.

  14. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  15. A thermographic study on eyes affected by Age-related Macular Degeneration: Comparison among various forms of the pathology and analysis of risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matteoli, Sara; Finocchio, Lucia; Biagini, Ilaria; Giacomelli, Giovanni; Sodi, Andrea; Corvi, Andrea; Virgili, Gianni; Rizzo, Stanislao

    2016-05-01

    The aims of this study are to investigate (1) the ocular thermographic profiles in eyes affected by Age related Macular Degeneration (AMD) and age-matched controls to detect possible hemodynamic abnormalities that could be involved in the pathogenesis of the disease, (2) whether any risk factors associated with the disease could affect the development of a form of AMD rather than another. Thirty-four eyes with Age-Related Maculopathy (ARM), 41 eyes with dry AMD, 60 eyes affected by wet AMD, and 74 eyes with fibrotic AMD were included in the study. The control group consisted of 48 healthy eyes. Exclusion criteria were represented by any other ocular diseases other than AMD, tear film abnormalities, systemic cardiovascular abnormalities, systemic diseases and a body temperature higher than 37.5 °C. A total of 210 eyes without pupil dilation were investigated by infrared thermography (FLIR A320). The Ocular Surface Temperature (OST) of five ocular areas was calculated by means of an image processing technique from the infrared images. Two-sample t-test, one-way ANOVA test and multivariate analysis were used for statistical analyses. ANOVA analyses showed no significant differences among AMD groups (P-value > 0.05), however, OST in AMD patients was significantly lower than in controls (P-value < 0.0001). Smokers showed higher possibility (P-value = 0.012) of developing wet AMD instead of dry AMD. Infrared thermography may be a helpful, non-invasive and not time-consuming method to be used in the management of patients with this common degenerative maculopathy.

  16. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  17. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  18. A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Leal Filho

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos, to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events.

  19. A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filho, Walter Leal; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Nagy, Gustavo J; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Wiesböck, Laura; Ayal, Desalegn Y; Morgan, Edward A; Mugabe, Paschal; Aparicio-Effen, Marilyn; Fudjumdjum, Hubert; Chiappetta Jabbour, Charbel Jose

    2018-02-13

    There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events.

  20. A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Wiesböck, Laura; Mugabe, Paschal; Aparicio-Effen, Marilyn; Fudjumdjum, Hubert; Chiappetta Jabbour, Charbel Jose

    2018-01-01

    There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events. PMID:29438345

  1. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  2. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  3. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  4. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  5. A Latent Class Analysis of Weight-Related Health Behaviors among 2-and 4-Year College Students and Associated Risk of Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathur, Charu; Stigler, Melissa; Lust, Katherine; Laska, Melissa

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about the complex patterning of weight-related health behaviors in 2-and 4-year college students. The objective of this study was to identify and describe unique classes of weight-related health behaviors among college students. Latent class analysis was used to identify homogenous, mutually exclusive classes of nine health…

  6. Work-related critical incidents in hospital-based health care providers and the risk of post-traumatic stress symptoms, anxiety, and depression: a meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Jacoba; Lok, Anja; van 't Verlaat, Ellen; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J.; Bakker, Arnold B.; Smit, Bert J.

    2011-01-01

    This meta-analysis reviewed existing data on the impact of work-related critical incidents in hospital-based health care professionals. Work-related critical incidents may induce post-traumatic stress symptoms or even post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression and may negatively

  7. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  8. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  9. Impact of lamivudine on the risk of liver-related death in 2,041 HBsAg- and HIV-positive individuals: results from an inter-cohort analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puoti, M; Cozzi-Lepri, A; Arici, A

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The impact of lamivudine (3TC) as part of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) on the risk of liver-related death (LRD) in HIV/hepatitis B virus (HBV)-coinfected patients has not been extensively studied. METHODS: We performed an analysis involving HIV/HBV-coinfected patients in 13...

  10. Risk considerations related to lung modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

    1989-01-01

    Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

  11. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connell, Paul P; Keane, Pearse A; O'Neill, Evelyn C; Altaie, Rasha W; Loane, Edward; Neelam, Kumari; Nolan, John M; Beatty, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  12. Risk Factors for Age-Related Maculopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul P. Connell

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Age-related maculopathy (ARM is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  13. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Connell, Paul P

    2012-02-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715\\/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  14. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  15. Current child, but not maternal, snoring is bi-directionally related to adiposity and cardiometabolic risk markers: A cross-sectional and a prospective cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farr, Olivia M; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Oken, Emily; Taveras, Elsie M; Mantzoros, Christos S

    2017-11-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), typically manifested as snoring, is closely associated with obesity. However, the directionality of associations of OSA with cardiometabolic risk markers is unclear, as obesity increases risk for OSA, and OSA results in excess weight gain and its metabolic consequences. Less is known about how obesity and OSA may relate in children and adolescents and whether maternal OSA may influence the development of obesity and cardiometabolic dysfunction in offspring. Among 1078 children from the Project Viva cohort, we examined cross-sectionally and prospectively associations of parent-reported child or maternal snoring with cardiometabolic outcomes, including adiposity, adipokines, and insulin resistance. Cross-sectionally, child snoring was related to adiposity and metabolic risk, particularly body mass index (BMI; β 0.61kg/m 2 , 95% CI 0.33, 0.89; pchild snoring at the early teen visit (~12y) after correction for covariates. Child snoring at ~9y was related to changes in adiposity between mid-childhood and early teen visits. Child but not maternal snoring, was related to child adiposity and cardiometabolic outcomes. Adiposity and child snoring are associated with each other cross-sectionally and are each predictive of the other among children/adolescents prospectively. These results suggest similar mechanisms in pediatric/adolescent populations as in adults for the development of sleep-disordered breathing and sleep apnea that will need to be confirmed in randomized clinical trials. Importantly, this research points to the need to target both sleep and obesity in order to break this vicious cycle. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. An analysis of timing and frequency of malaria infection during pregnancy in relation to the risk of low birth weight, anaemia and perinatal mortality in Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valea Innocent

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A prospective study aiming at assessing the effect of adding a third dose sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP to the standard two-dose intermittent preventive treatment for pregnant women was carried out in Hounde, Burkina Faso, between March 2006 and July 2008. Pregnant women were identified as earlier as possible during pregnancy through a network of home visitors, referred to the health facilities for inclusion and followed up until delivery. Methods Study participants were enrolled at antenatal care (ANC visits and randomized to receive either two or three doses of SP at the appropriate time. Women were visited daily and a blood slide was collected when there was fever (body temperature > 37.5°C or history of fever. Women were encouraged to attend ANC and deliver in the health centre, where the new-born was examined and weighed. The timing and frequency of malaria infection was analysed in relation to the risk of low birth weight, maternal anaemia and perinatal mortality. Results Data on birth weight and haemoglobin were available for 1,034 women. The incidence of malaria infections was significantly lower in women having received three instead of two doses of SP. Occurrence of first malaria infection during the first or second trimester was associated with a higher risk of low birth weight: incidence rate ratios of 3.56 (p p = 0.034, respectively. After adjusting for possible confounding factors, the risk remained significantly higher for the infection in the first trimester of pregnancy (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.07, p = 0.002. The risk of maternal anaemia and perinatal mortality was not associated with the timing of first malaria infection. Conclusion Malaria infection during first trimester of pregnancy is associated to a higher risk of low birth weight. Women should be encouraged to use long-lasting insecticidal nets before and throughout their pregnancy.

  17. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  18. Work-related critical incidents in hospital-based health care providers and the risk of post-traumatic stress symptoms, anxiety, and depression: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Jacoba; Lok, Anja; Van't Verlaat, Ellen; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J; Bakker, Arnold B; Smit, Bert J

    2011-07-01

    This meta-analysis reviewed existing data on the impact of work-related critical incidents in hospital-based health care professionals. Work-related critical incidents may induce post-traumatic stress symptoms or even post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression and may negatively affect health care practitioners' behaviors toward patients. Nurses and doctors often cope by working part time or switching jobs. Hospital administrators and health care practitioners themselves may underestimate the effects of work-related critical incidents. Relevant online databases were searched for original research published from inception to 2009 and manual searches of the Journal of Traumatic Stress, reference lists, and the European Traumatic Stress Research Database were conducted. Two researchers independently decided on inclusion and study quality. Effect sizes were estimated using standardized mean differences with 95% confidence intervals. Consistency was evaluated, using the I(2)-statistic. Meta-analysis was performed using the random effects model. Eleven studies, which included 3866 participants, evaluated the relationship between work-related critical incidents and post-traumatic stress symptoms. Six of these studies, which included 1695 participants, also reported on the relationship between work-related critical incidents and symptoms of anxiety and depression. Heterogeneity among studies was high and could not be accounted for by study quality, character of the incident, or timing of data collection. Pooled effect sizes for the impact of work-related critical incidents on post-traumatic stress symptoms, anxiety, and depression were small to medium. Remarkably, the effect was more pronounced in the longer than in the shorter term. In conclusion, this meta-analysis supports the hypothesis that work-related critical incidents are positively related to post-traumatic stress symptoms, anxiety, and depression in hospital-based health care professionals

  19. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  20. The Experiences of Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and Health-Therapeutic Personnel from the Determinants of Nutritional Behaviors: A Theory-based Qualitative Content Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MH Baghiani Moghadam

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cancers are one of the most common causes of death at age groups above 50 years old that Life style modification has an important role in prevention of them. Diets are the most important factor at the risk of gastric cancer. The aim of present study was explanation of the Experiences of Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and Health-Therapeutic Personnel from the Determinants of Nutritional Behaviors based on protection motivation theory. Methods: The present qualitative study was done with content analysis method application at Babol health-therapeutic centers covered by Babol University of Medical Sciences for eight months in 2013. semi-structure d face to face interview were used to collect the data with 9 participants from Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and 19 participants from Health-Therapeutic Personnel. Data analysis and collection were simultaneously done by using the method of theory-based (directed or conductive content analysis. Results:From data analysis 487initial codes and after integration,186 main codes were extracted .This codes were pasted at 2 pre-determined categories and 7 pre-determined sub-categories related to protection motivation theory(perceived sensitivity, perceived severity, reward, fear, perceived response-efficacy, self-efficacy and perceived cost-benefit. The most main perceived problem, was the low level of awareness, attitude and practice at people about nutritional risk factors related to gastric cancer and a result the low level of disease fear. Conclusion: The findings of present study are the indicator of effective determinants on nutritional behaviors that can help to health-therapeutic policy –makers to provide and approve the most appropriate solutions and strategies with aim of changing these determinants in order to reduce nutritional risk factors related to gastric cancer.

  1. Overcoming the initial investment hurdle for advanced biofuels. An analysis of biofuel-related risks and their impact on project financing. Report of ELOBIO subtask 7

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bole, T.; Londo, M.; Van Stralen, J.; Uslu, A.

    2010-04-01

    The ELOBIO research project aims to develop policies that will help achieve a higher share of biofuels in total transport fuel in a low-disturbing and sustainable way. Workpackage 7 of the ELOBIO project aims at addressing the objective of providing a reliable estimate of the potential and costs of biofuels, given the application of low-disturbing policy measures. More specifically, we seek to evaluate the impact of these biofuel policy measures on the investment climate for second-generation technologies. To this end, we try to answer several sub-questions in a following logical sequence: (1) What are the different factors that contribute to investment risk in biofuels and what are their relative contributions to overall biofuel project risk as perceived by finance providers?; (2) How do these risks translate into cost of capital for different biofuel technologies?; (3) How does cost of capital influence market penetration rates for the different technologies?; and (4) What is the best policy (or policy mix) to overcome the initial investment hurdle for advanced biofuels, thus lowering their cost of capital and achieve wider market deployment?.

  2. Exposure to Nitrogen Oxide in the First Trimester and Risk of Cardiovascular-Related Malformations: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tie-Ning Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen oxide (NOx is produced during combustion at high temperature, which is a major constituent of air pollutants. Recent studies suggested inconsistent results on the association between NOx exposure and cardiovascular-related malformations. We aimed to assess aforementioned association in pregnant women in the first trimester and cardiovascular-related malformations of infants. A systematic literature review identified studies for observational studies about NOx exposure and cardiovascular-related malformation in PubMed. Random-effect models were used to estimate summary odds ratio (SOR and 95% confidence intervals (CIs for aforementioned association. Finally, nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Overall, the SOR of cardiovascular-related malformation per 10 ppb increment in NOx and NO2 concentration was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.98–1.04; I2 = 38.6%, P=0.09 and 0.99 (95% CI: 0.95–1.04; I2 = 37.8%, P=0.13, respectively. Stratifying by study design, geographic locations, and confounded adjustments, the majority of strata showed negative results, which were consistent with the main findings. However, we found that exposure to NOx and NO2 in the first trimester increased the risk of coarctation of the aorta (COA malformation by 13% and 19%, respectively. Our study provided limited evidence regarding the association between NOx exposure in the first trimester and cardiovascular-related malformations in infants.

  3. An analysis of timing and frequency of malaria infection during pregnancy in relation to the risk of low birth weight, anaemia and perinatal mortality in Burkina Faso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valea, Innocent; Tinto, Halidou; Drabo, Maxime K; Huybregts, Lieven; Sorgho, Hermann; Ouedraogo, Jean-Bosco; Guiguemde, Robert T; van Geertruyden, Jean Pierre; Kolsteren, Patrick; D'Alessandro, Umberto

    2012-03-16

    A prospective study aiming at assessing the effect of adding a third dose sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) to the standard two-dose intermittent preventive treatment for pregnant women was carried out in Hounde, Burkina Faso, between March 2006 and July 2008. Pregnant women were identified as earlier as possible during pregnancy through a network of home visitors, referred to the health facilities for inclusion and followed up until delivery. Study participants were enrolled at antenatal care (ANC) visits and randomized to receive either two or three doses of SP at the appropriate time. Women were visited daily and a blood slide was collected when there was fever (body temperature > 37.5°C) or history of fever. Women were encouraged to attend ANC and deliver in the health centre, where the new-born was examined and weighed. The timing and frequency of malaria infection was analysed in relation to the risk of low birth weight, maternal anaemia and perinatal mortality. Data on birth weight and haemoglobin were available for 1,034 women. The incidence of malaria infections was significantly lower in women having received three instead of two doses of SP. Occurrence of first malaria infection during the first or second trimester was associated with a higher risk of low birth weight: incidence rate ratios of 3.56 (p pregnancy (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.07, p = 0.002). The risk of maternal anaemia and perinatal mortality was not associated with the timing of first malaria infection. Malaria infection during first trimester of pregnancy is associated to a higher risk of low birth weight. Women should be encouraged to use long-lasting insecticidal nets before and throughout their pregnancy.

  4. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  5. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  6. Probabilistic analysis and related topics

    CERN Document Server

    Bharucha-Reid, A T

    1979-01-01

    Probabilistic Analysis and Related Topics, Volume 2 focuses on the integrability, continuity, and differentiability of random functions, as well as functional analysis, measure theory, operator theory, and numerical analysis.The selection first offers information on the optimal control of stochastic systems and Gleason measures. Discussions focus on convergence of Gleason measures, random Gleason measures, orthogonally scattered Gleason measures, existence of optimal controls without feedback, random necessary conditions, and Gleason measures in tensor products. The text then elaborates on an

  7. [Risk factors related to surgical site infection in elective surgery].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeles-Garay, Ulises; Morales-Márquez, Lucy Isabel; Sandoval-Balanzarios, Miguel Antonio; Velázquez-García, José Arturo; Maldonado-Torres, Lulia; Méndez-Cano, Andrea Fernanda

    2014-01-01

    The risk factors for surgical site infections in surgery should be measured and monitored from admission to 30 days after the surgical procedure, because 30% of Surgical Site Infection is detected when the patient was discharged. Calculate the Relative Risk of associated factors to surgical site infections in adult with elective surgery. Patients were classified according to the surgery contamination degree; patient with surgery clean was defined as no exposed and patient with clean-contaminated or contaminated surgery was defined exposed. Risk factors for infection were classified as: inherent to the patient, pre-operative, intra-operative and post-operative. Statistical analysis; we realized Student t or Mann-Whitney U, chi square for Relative Risk (RR) and multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards. Were monitored up to 30 days after surgery 403 patients (59.8% women), 35 (8.7%) developed surgical site infections. The factors associated in multivariate analysis were: smoking, RR of 3.21, underweight 3.4 hand washing unsuitable techniques 4.61, transfusion during the procedure 3.22, contaminated surgery 60, and intensive care stay 8 to 14 days 11.64, permanence of 1 to 3 days 2.4 and use of catheter 1 to 3 days 2.27. To avoid all risk factors is almost impossible; therefore close monitoring of elective surgery patients can prevent infectious complications.

  8. Association of the miR-196a2 C>T and miR-499 A>G polymorphisms with hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma risk: an updated meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu SL

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Shao-Liang Zhu,1,* Jian-Hong Zhong,1,* Wen-Feng Gong,1,* Hang Li,2 Le-Qun Li11Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, 2Department of Ultrasound, Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workBackground: This study meta-analyzed data on the possible association of the miR-196a2 C>T (rs11614913 and miR-499 A>G (rs3746444 polymorphisms with risk of hepatitis B virus (HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC.Methods: Databases in PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, China BioMedicine, and Google Scholar were systematically searched to identify relevant studies. Meta-analyses were performed to examine the association of the miR-196a2 C>T and miR-499 A>G polymorphisms with HBV-related HCC risk. Odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs were calculated.Results: A total of 13 studies involving 3,964 cases and 5,875 healthy controls were included. Random-effect meta-analysis showed that the T allele and TT genotype of miR-196a2 C>T were associated with significantly lower HBV-related HCC risk (allelic model, OR =0.84, 95% CI =0.71–0.99, P=0.04; homozygous model, OR =0.68, 95% CI =0.47–0.98, P=0.04. In contrast, miR-499 A>G showed no significant association with HBV-related HCC risk in either overall pooled analysis or ethnic subgroup analysis according to any of the four genetic models. Based on analysis of ethnic subgroups, neither miR-196a2 C>T nor miR-499 A>G was significantly associated with risk of HBV-related HCC in Chinese population.Conclusion: The polymorphism miR-196a2 C>T, but not miR-499 A>G, may be associated with decreased HBV-related HCC risk. These conclusions should be verified in large, well-designed studies.Keywords: microRNA, single nucleotide polymorphisms, hepatitis B virus related, meta-analysis, hepatocellular carcinoma

  9. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  10. Risk of colorectal cancer in relation to frequency and total amount of red meat consumption. Systematic review and meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Smolińska, Katarzyna; Paluszkiewicz, Piotr

    2010-01-01

    Introduction The colon and rectum are common sites of food-related cancer in developed countries. Recent studies strongly suggest that red meat intake is associated with colon cancer, whereas for rectal cancer such an association still needs to be proved. The aim of the study was to assess the role of total amount and frequency of red meat intake in colorectal carcinogenesis based on published data using meta-analysis methods. Material and methods The literature published until 2009 was selec...

  11. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  12. Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

    2013-02-01

    A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

  13. Sexual and injection-related risks in Puerto Rican-born injection drug users living in New York City: A mixed-methods analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gelpí-Acosta Camila

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background These data were collected as part of the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance (NHBS study. NHBS is a cross-sectional study to investigate HIV behavioral risks among core risk groups in 21 U.S. cities with the highest HIV/AIDS prevalence. This analysis examines data from the NHBS data collection cycle with IDU conducted in New York City in 2009. We explored how the recency of migration from Puerto Rico (PR to New York City (NYC impacts both syringe sharing and unprotected sex among injection drug users (IDU currently living in NYC. Methods We used a mixed-methods approach to examine differences in risk between US-born IDU, PR IDU who migrated to NYC more than three years ago (non-recent migrants, and PR IDU who migrated in the last three years (recent migrants. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS was used to recruit the sample (n = 514. In addition, qualitative individual and group interviews with recent PR migrants (n = 12 and community experts (n = 2 allowed for an in-depth exploration of the IDU migration process and the material and cultural factors behind continued risk behaviors in NYC. Results In multiple logistic regression controlling for confounding factors, recent migrants were significantly more likely to report unprotected sexual intercourse with casual or exchange partners (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.81; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.37-5.76 and receptive syringe sharing (AOR = 2.44; 95% CI: 1.20-4.97 in the past year, compared to US-born IDU. HIV and HCV seroprevalence were highest among non-recent migrants. Qualitative results showed that risky injection practices are partly based on cultural norms acquired while injecting drugs in Puerto Rico. These same results also illustrate how homelessness influences risky sexual practices. Conclusions Poor material conditions (especially homelessness may be key in triggering risky sexual practices. Cultural norms (ingrained while using drugs in PR around injection drug

  14. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  15. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  16. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  17. The Protective Effect of Pregnancy on Risk for Drug Abuse: A Population, Co-Relative, Co-Spouse, and Within-Individual Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendler, Kenneth S; Ohlsson, Henrik; Svikis, Dace S; Sundquist, Kristina; Sundquist, Jan

    2017-10-01

    The authors sought to determine whether pregnancy is an intrinsic motivator for cessation of drug abuse. The authors conducted prospective cohort, co-relative, co-spouse, and within-person analyses of registration for drug abuse during pregnancy among Swedish women born between 1980 and 1990 who gave birth between ages 20 and 35 (N=149,512). Drug abuse was assessed from medical, criminal, and pharmacy registries. In the population, rates of drug abuse were lower during pregnancy (unadjusted odds ratio=0.67, 95% CI=0.60, 0.74). Compared with population results, the negative association between pregnancy and drug abuse was moderately stronger in cousins (odds ratio=0.49, 95% CI=0.39, 0.62) and substantially stronger in siblings (odds ratio=0.35, 95% CI=0.24, 0.51) discordant for pregnancy. The estimated odds ratio for drug abuse in pregnancy-discordant monozygotic twins was even stronger, at 0.17 (95% CI=0.10, 0.31). Within individuals, the odds ratio for drug abuse while pregnant compared with an equivalent prepregnancy interval was similar to that seen in pregnancy-discordant monozygotic twins, at 0.22 (95% CI=0.19, 0.26). Compared with cohabiting fathers, mothers had a greater reduction in risk for drug abuse during pregnancy (odds ratio=0.40, 95% CI=0.34, 0.47). Pregnancy was more protective in women with low parental education and without a cohabiting, actively drug-abusing father. Compared with prepregnancy baseline, within-individual analyses indicate that risk for drug abuse is also substantially reduced in the postpartum period, for example, the odds ratio for postpartum days 0-242 was 0.13 (95% CI=0.11, 0.16). Risk for drug abuse in women is substantially reduced during pregnancy. Multiple analyses suggest that this association is largely causal, suggesting that pregnancy is indeed a strong intrinsic motivator for drug abuse cessation. Similar strong protective effects may be present in the immediate postpartum period. Our results have implications for our

  18. People at High Risk of Developing Flu-Related Complications

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other People at High Risk of Developing Flu–Related Complications ... related complications if they get sick with influenza. People at High Risk for Developing Flu-Related Complications ...

  19. Human capital and risk aversion in relational incentive contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kvaloey, Ola

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines a self-enforced relational incentive contract between a risk neutral principal and a risk averse agent where the agent's human capital is essential in ex post realization of values. I analyse the effect of outside options on the optimal bonus level, showing how the presence of ex post outside options may impede desirable degrees of performance pay. The effect of risk aversion and incentive responsiveness is analysed by allowing for linear contracts. I show that the first order effect of these parameters are the same as in verifiable contracts, but second order effects show that the optimal bonus level's sensitivity to risk aversion and incentive responsiveness increases with the discount factor. The analysis has interesting implications on firm boundaries and specificity choices. (author)

  20. Peripheral intravenous catheter-related phlebitis and related risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassaji-Zavareh, M; Ghorbani, R

    2007-08-01

    Peripheral intravenous catheter-related phlebitis is a common and significant problem in clinical practice. This study aims to investigate the incidence of phlebitis and to evaluate some important related factors. 300 patients admitted to medical and surgical wards of hospitals in Semnan, Iran from April 2003 to February 2004 were prospectively studied. Variables evaluated were age, gender, site and size of catheter, type of insertion and underlying conditions (diabetes mellitus, trauma, infectious disease and burns). Phlebitis was defined when at least four criteria were fulfilled (erythema, pain, tenderness, warmth, induration, palpable cord and swelling). Any patient who was discharged or their catheter removed before three days were excluded. Phlebitis occurred in 26 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI] 21- 31 percent) of patients. There was no significant relationship between age, catheter bore size, trauma and phlebitis. Related risk factors were gender (odds-ratio [OR] 1.50, 95 percent CI 1.01-2.22), site (OR 3.25, 95 percent CI 2.26-4.67) and type of insertion (OR 2.04, 95 percent CI 1.36-3.05) of catheter, diabetes mellitus (OR 7.78, 95 percent CI 4.59-13.21), infectious disease (OR 6.21, 95 percent CI 4.27-9.03) and burns (OR 3.96, 95 percent CI 3.26-4.82). Phlebitis is still an important and ongoing problem in medical practice. In patients with diabetes mellitus and infectious diseases, more attention is needed.

  1. Climate Change and Food-Related Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isidro Juan Mirón Pérez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There are two principal concepts to take into account relating food and climate change: food security and food safety. Most papers linking climate change to food risks deal with the first one: the security of the food supply.The increase of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, together with the rise of the temperatures on a global level would theorically lead to greater yields of crops grown for human and animal consumption. Howevwe, most of these studies have shown that, in general, crop yields are decreasing as this global change also brings about an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In adition, these weather anomalies would be unevenly spread and affect developing countries, which are less capable of tackling this change, more severely. All these factors would result in greater uncertainty in the supply of food, which consequently would be less predictable and leave it more exposed to market speculation.A rise in average temperatures would be expected to increase the risk of proliferation of foodborne disease-causing microorganisms such as Salmonella or Campylobacter. Nevertheless, a trend of this sort has not been detected yet in developed countries, where information systems allow the temporal evolution of the occurrence of those diseases to be tracked, since means for food preservation and food controls are wide spread.

  2. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  3. Probabilistic analysis and related topics

    CERN Document Server

    Bharucha-Reid, A T

    1983-01-01

    Probabilistic Analysis and Related Topics, Volume 3 focuses on the continuity, integrability, and differentiability of random functions, including operator theory, measure theory, and functional and numerical analysis. The selection first offers information on the qualitative theory of stochastic systems and Langevin equations with multiplicative noise. Discussions focus on phase-space evolution via direct integration, phase-space evolution, linear and nonlinear systems, linearization, and generalizations. The text then ponders on the stability theory of stochastic difference systems and Marko

  4. A qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk perception and treatment options as related to wildfires in the USDA FS Region 3 National Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingrid M. Martin; Wade E. Martin; Carol B. Raish

    2011-01-01

    As the incidence of devastating fires rises, managing the risk posed by these fires has become critical. This report provides important information to examine the ways that different groups or disaster subcultures develop the mentalities or perceived realities that affect their views and responses concerning risk and disaster preparedness. Fire risk beliefs and...

  5. Exposure to traffic-related air pollution and risk of development of childhood asthma: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khreis, Haneen; Kelly, Charlotte; Tate, James; Parslow, Roger; Lucas, Karen; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark

    2017-03-01

    The question of whether children's exposure to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) contributes to their development of asthma is unresolved. We conducted a systematic review and performed meta-analyses to analyze the association between TRAP and asthma development in childhood. We systematically reviewed epidemiological studies published until 8 September 2016 and available in the Embase, Ovid MEDLINE (R), and Transport databases. We included studies that examined the association between children's exposure to TRAP metrics and their risk of 'asthma' incidence or lifetime prevalence, from birth to age 18years old. We extracted key characteristics of each included study using a predefined data items template and these were tabulated. We used the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklists to assess the validity of each included study. Where four or more independent risk estimates were available for a continuous pollutant exposure, we conducted overall and age-specific meta-analyses, and four sensitivity analyses for each summary meta-analytic exposure-outcome association. Forty-one studies met our eligibility criteria. There was notable variability in asthma definitions, TRAP exposure assessment methods and confounder adjustment. The overall random-effects risk estimates (95% CI) were 1.08 (1.03, 1.14) per 0.5×10 -5 m -1 black carbon (BC), 1.05 (1.02, 1.07) per 4μg/m 3 nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), 1.48 (0.89, 2.45) per 30μg/m 3 nitrogen oxides (NO x ), 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) per 1μg/m 3 Particulate Matter asthma development. Our findings support the hypothesis that childhood exposure to TRAP contributes to their development of asthma. Future meta-analyses would benefit from greater standardization of study methods including exposure assessment harmonization, outcome harmonization, confounders' harmonization and the inclusion of all important confounders in individual studies. PROSPERO 2014: CRD42014015448. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  7. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

  8. A multi-analysis approach for space-time and economic evaluation of risks related with livestock diseases: the example of FMD in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-López, B; Ivorra, B; Fernández-Carrión, E; Perez, A M; Medel-Herrero, A; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, F; Gortázar, C; Ramos, A M; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

    2014-04-01

    This study presents a multi-disciplinary decision-support tool, which integrates geo-statistics, social network analysis (SNA), spatial-stochastic spread model, economic analysis and mapping/visualization capabilities for the evaluation of the sanitary and socio-economic impact of livestock diseases under diverse epidemiologic scenarios. We illustrate the applicability of this tool using foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Peru as an example. The approach consisted on a flexible, multistep process that may be easily adapted based on data availability. The first module (mI) uses a geo-statistical approach for the estimation (if needed) of the distribution and abundance of susceptible population (in the example here, cattle, swine, sheep, goats, and camelids) at farm-level in the region or country of interest (Peru). The second module (mII) applies SNA for evaluating the farm-to-farm contact patterns and for exploring the structure and frequency of between-farm animal movements as a proxy for potential disease introduction or spread. The third module (mIII) integrates mI-II outputs into a spatial-stochastic model that simulates within- and between-farm FMD-transmission. The economic module (mIV) connects outputs from mI-III to provide an estimate of associated direct and indirect costs. A visualization module (mV) is also implemented to graph and map the outputs of module I-IV. After 1000 simulated epidemics, the mean (95% probability interval) number of outbreaks, infected animals, epidemic duration, and direct costs were 37 (1, 1164), 2152 (1, 13, 250), 63 days (0, 442), and US$ 1.2 million (1072, 9.5 million), respectively. Spread of disease was primarily local (Peru, in particular to inform and support the implementation of risk-based surveillance and livestock insurance systems that may help to prevent and control potential FMD virus incursions into Peru. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Are all risks equal? Early experiences of poverty-related risk and children's functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Amanda L; Raver, C Cybele

    2014-06-01

    Using cumulative risk and latent class analysis (LCA) models, we examined how exposure to deep poverty (income-to-needs ratio risks (i.e., single-parent household, residential crowding, caregiver depression, and multiple life stressors) in preschool is related to children's future difficulty in school in a longitudinal sample of 602 Head Start-enrolled, low-income families. Results from the LCA revealed 4 risk profiles: low risk, deep poverty and single, single and stressed, and deep poverty and crowded household. Tests of measurement invariance across racial/ethnic groups established that, although patterns of risk are similar across groups (i.e., risks covary in the same way), the prevalence of risk profiles differs. African American families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and single" profile while Latino and White families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and crowded" profile. Finally, children's third grade functioning in 3 domains (i.e., academic performance, behavior problems, and self-regulatory skills) was predicted using a cumulative risk index and LCA-identified risk profiles. Both approaches demonstrated that children who experienced higher levels of risk in preschool had worse school performance than children with low levels of risk. However, LCA also revealed that children who experienced "single and stressed" family settings had more behavior problems than low-risk children while children who experienced "deep poverty and crowded" family settings had worse academic performance. The results indicate that all risks are not equal for children's development and highlight the utility of LCA for tailoring intervention efforts to best meet the needs of target populations. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved

  10. Barriers and Facilitators for the Use of a Medical Mobile App to Prevent Work-Related Risks in Pregnancy: A Qualitative Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velu, Adeline V; van Beukering, Monique Dm; Schaafsma, Frederieke G; Frings-Dresen, Monique Hw; Mol, Ben Wj; van der Post, Joris Am; Kok, Marjolein

    2017-08-22

    The number of women participating in the labor market in Europe has increased over the last several decades. At the same time, there is growing evidence that certain conditions of employment during pregnancy may have a negative influence on pregnancy outcomes. In order to better inform pregnant women, we aim to develop an app to help assess the health risk as a result of personal and work-related factors and provide personal advice for these women and their health care providers. The aim of this study was to compose a thematic overview of the perceived facilitators and barriers according to pregnant women, medical professionals, and employers for the use of a mobile app in obstetrical care to prevent occupational-related pregnancy complications. Two multidisciplinary focus group meetings with in total 14 participants were conducted with pregnant women, occupational physicians, general practitioners, midwives, obstetricians, and representatives of trade unions and employer organizations. Transcripts were analyzed by qualitatively coding procedures and constant comparative methods. We identified 24 potential facilitators and 12 potential barriers for the use of the app in 4 categories: content of the app, the app as a mean to provide information, ease of use, and external factors. The 3 main facilitators identified were the need for a good interaction between the app and the user, apps were viewed as a more practical source of information, and the information should be understandable, according to the existing guidelines, and well-dosed. The 2 main barriers for use were extensive battery and memory use of the smartphone and sending frequent push notifications. The results of this study are important considerations in the developing process of a medical app implementing a guideline or evidence-based information in practice. ©Adeline V Velu, Monique DM van Beukering, Frederieke G Schaafsma, Monique HW Frings-Dresen, Ben WJ Mol, Joris AM van der Post, Marjolein Kok

  11. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  12. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  13. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  14. Affect and Acceptability: Exploring Teachers' Technology-Related Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Sarah K.

    2011-01-01

    Educational change, such as technology integration, involves risk. Teachers are encouraged to "take risks", but what risks they are asked to take and how do they perceive these risks? Developing an understanding of teachers' technology-related risk perceptions can help explain their choices and behaviours. This paper presents a way to…

  15. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  16. Risk of neuroblastoma, birth-related characteristics, congenital malformations and perinatal exposures: A pooled analysis of the ESCALE and ESTELLE French studies (SFCE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rios, Paula; Bailey, Helen D; Orsi, Laurent; Lacour, Brigitte; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Levy, Dominique; Corradini, Nadège; Leverger, Guy; Defachelles, Anne-Sophie; Gambart, Marion; Sirvent, Nicolas; Thebaud, Estelle; Ducassou, Stéphane; Clavel, Jacqueline

    2016-11-01

    Neuroblastoma (NB), an embryonic tumour arising from neural crest cells, is the most common malignancy among infants. The aetiology of NB is largely unknown. We conducted a pooled analysis to explore whether there is an association between NB and preconception and perinatal factors using data from two French national population-based case-control studies. The mothers of 357 NB cases and 1783 controls younger than 6 years, frequency-matched by age and gender, responded to a telephone interview that focused on demographic, socioeconomic and perinatal characteristics, childhood environment, life-style and maternal reproductive history. Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. After controlling for matching variables, study of origin and potential confounders, being born either small (OR 1.4 95% CI 1.0-2.0) or large (OR 1.5 95% CI 1.1-2.2) for gestational age and, among children younger than 18 months, having congenital malformations (OR 3.6 95% CI 1.3-8.9), were significantly associated with NB. Inverse associations were observed with breastfeeding (OR 0.7 95% CI 0.5-1.0) and maternal use of any supplements containing folic acid, vitamins or minerals (OR 0.5 95% CI 0.3-0.9) during the preconception period. Our findings reinforce the hypothesis that fetal growth anomalies and congenital malformations may be associated with an increased risk of NB. Further investigations are needed in order to clarify the role of folic acid supplementation and breastfeeding, given their potential importance in NB prevention. © 2016 UICC.

  17. Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anette Tarp; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

    2017-01-01

    The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

  18. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  19. MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki

    2014-01-01

    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer....... We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41......,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated...

  20. Food for thought - Communicating food-related risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sturloni Giancarlo

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last few years, a continuous series of food alerts have caught the attention of the media and the public in Europe. First, eggs and pork contaminated with dioxins; then, “mad cow” disease, while, all along in the background, a battle against genetically modified plants has been in progress. These food alerts have had complex repercussions on the perception of risks associated with food production. Experts have often been divided over these issues, and the uncertainty of scientific data has been indicated on more than one occasion as one of the factors that influence risk perception. However, the most important factor seems to be undoubtedly the way in which the risk has been communicated (or not communicated to the public. Therefore, risk communication analysis offers an excellent opportunity to understand the profound changes that are taking place in relations among the scientific community, mass media and other members of civil society now that they are fully aware that scientific and technological innovation, the real driving force of modern industrial society, is a source of development but also a source of risks which are not always acceptable. Within this different context, a debate open to all interested parties appears to have become a dire necessity for the “risk society”, especially as far as food is concerned because food has extremely important psychological, ethical and cultural values.

  1. Unstimulated Saliva-Related Caries Risk Factors in Individuals with Cystic Fibrosis: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Unstimulated Salivary Flow, pH, and Buffering Capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhateeb, Alaa A; Mancl, Lloyd A; Presland, Richard B; Rothen, Marilynn L; Chi, Donald L

    2017-01-01

    Salivary flow rate, pH, and buffering capacity are associated with dental caries, but studies from the cystic fibrosis (CF) literature are inconclusive regarding these salivary factors and caries. The aim of this study was to evaluate these factors and their associations with dental caries in individuals with CF. Unstimulated whole saliva was collected from individuals aged 6-20 years at Seattle Children's Hospital CF Clinic, USA (n = 83). Salivary flow rate was measured in milliliters per minute. Salivary pH was assessed using a laboratory pH meter. Buffering capacity was assessed by titration with HCl. The outcome measure was caries prevalence, defined as the number of decayed, missing, or filled primary and permanent tooth surfaces. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and the t test were used to test for bivariate associations. Multiple variable linear regression models were used to (1) run confounder-adjusted analyses and (2) assess for potential interactions. There was no significant association between salivary flow rate or buffering capacity and caries prevalence. There was a significant negative association between salivary pH and caries prevalence, but this association was no longer significant after adjusting for age. There was no significant interaction between salivary flow rate and buffering capacity or between antibiotic use and the 3 salivary factors. Our results indicate that unstimulated salivary factors are not associated with dental caries prevalence in individuals with CF. Future studies should investigate other potential saliva-related caries risk factors in individuals with CF such as cariogenic bacteria levels, salivary host defense peptide levels, and medication use. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  2. Stochastic Analysis and Related Topics

    CERN Document Server

    Ustunel, Ali

    1988-01-01

    The Silvri Workshop was divided into a short summer school and a working conference, producing lectures and research papers on recent developments in stochastic analysis on Wiener space. The topics treated in the lectures relate to the Malliavin calculus, the Skorohod integral and nonlinear functionals of white noise. Most of the research papers are applications of these subjects. This volume addresses researchers and graduate students in stochastic processes and theoretical physics.

  3. Chemotherapy-Related Amenorrhea and Menopause in Young Chinese Breast Cancer Patients: Analysis on Incidence, Risk Factors and Serum Hormone Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liem, Giok S.; Mo, Frankie K. F.; Pang, Elizabeth; Suen, Joyce J. S.; Tang, Nelson L. S.; Lee, Kun M.; Yip, Claudia H. W.; Tam, Wing H.; Ng, Rita; Koh, Jane; Yip, Christopher C. H.; Kong, Grace W. S.; Yeo, Winnie

    2015-01-01

    Purpose In this prospective cross-sectional study on young premenopausal breast cancer patients, the objectives were to: determine the incidences of chemotherapy-related amenorrhea (CRA) and menopause (CRM); identify associated factors; and assess plasma levels of estradiol (E2) and follicular stimulating hormone (FSH) among patients who developed menopause. Methods Eligibility criteria include Chinese stage I-III breast cancer patients, premenopausal, age ≤45 at breast cancer diagnosis, having received adjuvant chemotherapy, within 3–10 years after breast cancer diagnosis. Detailed menstrual history prior to and after adjuvant treatment was taken at study entry. Patients’ background demographics, tumor characteristics and anti-cancer treatments were collected. The rates of CRA and CRM were determined. Analysis was conducted to identify factors associated with CRM. For postmenopausal patients, levels of E2 and FSH were analyzed. Results 286 patients were recruited; the median time from breast cancer diagnosis to study entry was 5.0 years. 255 patients (91.1%) developed CRA. Of these, 66.7% regained menstruation. At the time of study entry, 137 (48.9%) had developed CRM, amongst whom 84 were age ≤45. On multivariate analysis, age was the only associated factor. Among patients with CRM, the median FSH was 41.0 IU/L; this was significantly lower in those who were taking tamoxifen compared to those who were not (20.1 vs. 59.7 IU/L, p<0.0001). The E2 level was <40 pmol/L; there was no difference between those who were still on tamoxifen or not. Conclusion After adjuvant chemotherapy, the majority of young Chinese breast cancer patients developed CRA; ~50% developed CRM, with 61% at age ≤45. Age at diagnosis is the only factor associated with CRM. FSH level may be affected by tamoxifen intake. PMID:26485568

  4. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  6. Managing IT-related operational risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savić Ana

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Not so long ago, information technology (IT risk occupied a small corner of operational risk - the opportunity loss from a missed IT development deadline. Today, the success of an entire financial institution may lay on managing a broad landscape of IT risks. IT risk is a potential damage to an organization's value, resulting from inadequate managing of processes and technologies. IT risk includes the failure to respond to security and privacy requirements, as well as many other issues such as: human error, internal fraud through software manipulation, external fraud by intruders, obsolesce in applications and machines, reliability issues or mismanagement. The World Economic Forum provides best information about this problem. They rank a breakdown of critical information infrastructure among the most likely core global risks, with 10-20 % likelihood over the next 10 years and potential worldwide impact of $250 billion. Sustained investment in IT - almost $1.2 trillion or 29% of 2006 private-sector capital investment in the U.S. alone fuels growing exposure to IT risk. Greg Hughes, chief strategy officer in Symantec Corp. recently claimed "IT risk management is more than using technology to solve security problems. With proper planning and broad support, it can give an organization the confidence to innovate, using IT to outdistance competitors".

  7. The efficacy of fall-risk-increasing drug (FRID) withdrawal for the prevention of falls and fall-related complications: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Justin Yusen; Holbrook, Anne

    2017-02-20

    Despite limited evidence of effectiveness, withdrawal (discontinuation or dose reduction) of high risk medications known as "fall-risk increasing drugs" (FRIDs) is typically conducted as a fall prevention strategy based on presumptive benefit. Our objective is to determine the efficacy of fall-risk increasing drugs (FRIDs) withdrawal on the prevention of falls and fall-related complications. We will search for all published and unpublished randomized controlled trials evaluating the effect of FRID withdrawal compared to usual care on the rate of falls, incidence of falls, fall-related injuries, fall-related fractures, fall-related hospitalizations, or adverse effects related to the intervention in adults aged 65 years or older. Electronic database searches will be conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and CINAHL. A grey literature search will be conducted including clinical trial registries and conference proceedings and abstracts. Two reviewers will independently perform in duplicate citation screening, full-text review, data abstraction, and risk of bias assessment. Conflicts will be resolved through team discussion or by a third reviewer if no consensus can be reached. The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria will be used to independently rate overall confidence in effect estimates for each outcome. Results will be synthesized descriptively, and a random effects meta-analysis will be conducted for each outcome if studies are deemed similar methodologically, clinically, and statistically. We will attempt to determine whether a FRID withdrawal strategy alone is effective at preventing falls in older adults. Our results will be used to optimize and focus fall prevention strategies and initiatives internationally with a goal of improving the health of older adults. PROSPERO CRD42016040203.

  8. The efficacy of fall-risk-increasing drug (FRID withdrawal for the prevention of falls and fall-related complications: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Yusen Lee

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite limited evidence of effectiveness, withdrawal (discontinuation or dose reduction of high risk medications known as “fall-risk increasing drugs” (FRIDs is typically conducted as a fall prevention strategy based on presumptive benefit. Our objective is to determine the efficacy of fall-risk increasing drugs (FRIDs withdrawal on the prevention of falls and fall-related complications. Methods/design We will search for all published and unpublished randomized controlled trials evaluating the effect of FRID withdrawal compared to usual care on the rate of falls, incidence of falls, fall-related injuries, fall-related fractures, fall-related hospitalizations, or adverse effects related to the intervention in adults aged 65 years or older. Electronic database searches will be conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, and CINAHL. A grey literature search will be conducted including clinical trial registries and conference proceedings and abstracts. Two reviewers will independently perform in duplicate citation screening, full-text review, data abstraction, and risk of bias assessment. Conflicts will be resolved through team discussion or by a third reviewer if no consensus can be reached. The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE criteria will be used to independently rate overall confidence in effect estimates for each outcome. Results will be synthesized descriptively, and a random effects meta-analysis will be conducted for each outcome if studies are deemed similar methodologically, clinically, and statistically. Discussion We will attempt to determine whether a FRID withdrawal strategy alone is effective at preventing falls in older adults. Our results will be used to optimize and focus fall prevention strategies and initiatives internationally with a goal of improving the health of older adults. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD

  9. On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2010-01-01

    Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

  10. A treelet transform analysis to relate nutrient patterns to the risk of hormonal receptor-defined breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Assi, Nada; Moskal, Aurelie; Slimani, Nadia

    2016-01-01

    in epidemiological studies. We examined the association between various indices of glycaemia measured during everyday activities and metabolic CVD risk factors in the A1C-Derived Average Glucose (ADAG) study. Methods: Participants (268 with type 1 diabetes, 159 with type 2 diabetes) completed 16 weeks of intensive...... continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG). From these data, common indices of postprandial glycaemia, overall hyperglycaemia, glucose variability and HbA1c were derived. The associations between glycaemic indices and known CVD risk factors (lipids, high-sensitivity C......Aims: Increased glucose excursions and postprandial hyperglycaemia have been suggested as unique risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus. Much of the evidence is based on a single 2 h glucose value after oral glucose tolerance testing...

  11. Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in Relation to Addictive Behaviors: A Moderated-Mediation Analysis of Personality Risk Factors and Sex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline eDavis

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Research has shown that those with ADHD have an increased risk for addiction disorders like alcoholism and substance abuse. What is less clear is the mechanism(s whereby ADHD gives rise to increased engagement in addictive behaviors, and whether there are sex differences in the ADHD-addiction propensity. Both ADHD and addictions have also been associated with personality traits such as impulsivity, reward seeking, anxiousness, and negative affect. In this study, we tested a moderator-mediation model which predicted that both sex and ADHD-symptom status would make independent contributions to the variance in personality risk and in addictive behaviors, with males, and those with diagnosed ADHD, scoring higher on both dependent variables. Our model also predicted that the effect of sex and ADHD-symptom status on addictive behaviors would be via the mediating or intervening influence of personality risk factors. Methods: A community-based sample of young men and women took part in the study. Among these individuals, 46 had received a life-time diagnosis of ADHD. The non-diagnosed participants were dichotomized into a high-ADHD symptom group (n=83 and a low-symptom group (n=84. Results: We found that a high-risk personality profile may, in part, account for the relationship between ADHD symptomatology and the use/abuse of a broad range of addictive behaviors. However,we found no sex differences in personality risk for addiction or in the use of addictive behaviors; nor did sex moderate the relationships we assessed. Conclusions: While ADHD Status showed a strong relationship with both dependent variables in the model, we found no difference between those who had been diagnosed with ADHD and treated with stimulants, and their high-symptom non-diagnosed/non-treated counterparts. These results add support to claims that the treatment of ADHD with stimulant medication neither protects nor fosters the risk for substance abuse disorders.

  12. Association between firearm ownership, firearm-related risk and risk reduction behaviours and alcohol-related risk behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintemute, Garen J

    2011-12-01

    Alcohol use and firearm ownership are risk factors for violent injury and death. To determine whether firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours, the author conducted a cross-sectional study using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data for eight states in the USA from 1996 to 1997 (the most recent data available). Altogether, 15 474 respondents provided information on firearm exposure. After adjustment for demographics and state of residence, firearm owners were more likely than those with no firearms at home to have ≥5 drinks on one occasion (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.50), to drink and drive (OR 1.79; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.39) and to have ≥60 drinks per month (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.83). Heavy alcohol use was most common among firearm owners who also engaged in behaviours such as carrying a firearm for protection against other people and keeping a firearm at home that was both loaded and not locked away. The author concludes that firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours.

  13. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  14. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  15. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  16. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  17. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  18. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  19. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  20. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

    2015-01-01

    A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  1. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  2. Relative and absolute risk in epidemiology and health physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldsmith, R.; Peterson, H.T. Jr.

    1983-01-01

    The health risk from ionizing radiation commonly is expressed in two forms: (1) the relative risk, which is the percentage increase in natural disease rate and (2) the absolute or attributable risk which represents the difference between the natural rate and the rate associated with the agent in question. Relative risk estimates for ionizing radiation generally are higher than those expressed as the absolute risk. This raises the question of which risk estimator is the most appropriate under different conditions. The absolute risk has generally been used for radiation risk assessment, although mathematical combinations such as the arithmetic or geometric mean of both the absolute and relative risks, have also been used. Combinations of the two risk estimators are not valid because the absolute and relative risk are not independent variables. Both human epidemiologic studies and animal experimental data can be found to illustrate the functional relationship between the natural cancer risk and the risk associated with radiation. This implies that the radiation risk estimate derived from one population may not be appropriate for predictions in another population, unless it is adjusted for the difference in the natural disease incidence between the two populations

  3. Magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes in relation to seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, R.D.

    1989-01-01

    Estimating the frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes on a regional basis is an important task in estimating seismic risk at a construction site. Analysis of global earthquake data provides an insight into the magnitudes frequency relationship in a statistical manner. It turns out that, whereas a linear relationship between the logarithm of earthquake occurrence rates and the corresponding earthquake magnitudes fits well in the magnitude range between 5 and 7, a second degree polynomial in M, the earthquake magnitude provides a better description of the frequencies of earthquakes in a much wider range of magnitudes. It may be possible to adopt magnitude frequency relation for regions, for which adequate earthquake data are not available, to carry out seismic risk calculations. (author). 32 refs., 8 tabs., 7 figs

  4. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  5. Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

    2018-04-10

    Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  7. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  8. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  9. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  10. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  11. Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarp Hansen, Anette; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

    2017-01-01

    The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

  12. Integrative Analysis of DCE-MRI and Gene Expression Profiles in Construction of a Gene Classifier for Assessment of Hypoxia-Related Risk of Chemoradiotherapy Failure in Cervical Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fjeldbo, Christina S; Julin, Cathinka H; Lando, Malin

    2016-01-01

    platforms. The prognostic value was independent of existing clinical markers, regardless of clinical endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: A robust DCE-MRI-associated gene classifier has been constructed that may be used to achieve an early indication of patients' risk of hypoxia-related chemoradiotherapy failure.......PURPOSE: A 31-gene expression signature reflected in dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE)-MR images and correlated with hypoxia-related aggressiveness in cervical cancer was identified in previous work. We here aimed to construct a dichotomous classifier with key signature genes and a predefined...... as an indicator of hypoxia. RESULTS: Classifier candidates were constructed by integrative analysis of ABrix and gene expression profiles in the training cohort and evaluated by a leave-one-out cross-validation approach. On the basis of their ability to separate patients correctly according to hypoxia status, a 6...

  13. Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Relation to Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Robert; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine the effects of temperature on cardiovascular-related (CVD) morbidity and mortality among New York City (NYC) residents. Introduction Extreme temperatures are consistently shown to have an effect on CVD-related mortality [1, 2]. A large multi-city study of mortality demonstrated a cold-day and hot-day weather effect on CVD-related deaths, with the larger impact occurring on the coldest days [3]. In contrast, the association between weather and CVD-related morbidity is less clear [4, 5]. The purpose of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on CVD-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and mortality on a large, heterogeneous population. Additionally, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of air pollutants, specifically fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), along with temperature, on CVD outcomes. Methods We analyzed daily weather conditions, ED visits classified as CVD-related based on chief complaint text, hospitalizations, and natural cause deaths that occurred in NYC between 2002 and 2006. ED visits were obtained from data reported daily to the city health department for syndromic surveillance. Inpatient admissions were obtained from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, a data reporting system developed by New York State. Mortality data were obtained from the NYC Office of Vital Statistics. Data for PM2.5 and O3 were obtained from all available air quality monitors within the five boroughs of NYC. To estimate risk of CVD morbidity and mortality, we used generalized linear models using a Poisson distribution to calculate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A non-linear distributed lag was used to model mean temperature in order to allow for its effect on the same day and on subsequent days. Models were fit separately for cold season (October through March) and warm season (April through September) given season may modify the effect on CVD

  14. Safety in relation to risk and benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddall, E.

    1985-01-01

    The proper definition and quantification of human safety is discussed and from this basis the historical development of our present very high standard of safety is traced. It is shown that increased safety is closely associated with increased wealth, and the quantitative relationship between then is derived from different sources of evidence. When this factor is applied to the production of wealth by industry, a safety benefit is indicated which exceeds the asserted risks by orders of magnitude. It is concluded that present policies and attitudes in respect to the safety of industry may be diametrically wrong. (orig.) [de

  15. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

  16. Regional dGEMRIC analysis in patients at risk of osteoarthritis provides additional information about activity related changes in cartilage structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hawezi, Z K; Lammentausta, E; Svensson, J

    2016-01-01

    . PURPOSE: To improve the knowledge about exercise effects on cartilage structure by re-analyzing previous images with regional dGEMRIC analysis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Thirty patients (age range, 38-50 years) with a previous medial meniscus resection were divided into three groups according to self...... the joint, the largest improvement being observed in lateral posterior cartilage, i.e. the load-bearing cartilage in the compartment without a meniscus lesion. The effects of exercise do not seem to vary with cartilage depth....

  17. Autoantibodies to IA-2beta improve diabetes risk assessment in high-risk relatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Achenbach, P; Bonifacio, E; Williams, A J K

    2008-01-01

    -positive participants (median age 12.1 years; 57% male), 113 developed diabetes (5 year cumulative risk 56%), and 148 were also GADA-positive and IAA-positive (4Ab-positive). IA2betaA were detected in 137 (65%) ICA/IA2A-positive participants and were associated with an increased 5 year diabetes risk (IA2beta......A-positive 65 vs 39% in IA2betaA-negative, p=0.0002). The effect was most marked in 4Ab-positive relatives (72% vs 52%, p=0.003). Metabolic testing further refined risk assessment. Among 101 4Ab-positive relatives with IA2betaA, the 5 year risk was 94% in those with a low FPIR (vs 50% in those with a normal...... FPIR, p4Ab/IA2betaA-positive participants with a low FPIR was 1.5 years. Multivariate analysis confirmed IA2betaA status, antibody number, young...

  18. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  19. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  20. MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L.; Muranen, Taru A.; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Liu, Jianjun; Hall, Per; Irwanto, Astrid; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Czene, Kamila; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Johnson, Nichola; Gibson, Lorna; Aitken, Zoe; Hopper, John L.; Tsimiklis, Helen; Bui, Minh; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Southey, Melissa C.; Apicella, Carmel; Stone, Jennifer; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel A.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Chanock, Stephen J.; Hunter, David J.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Reed, Malcolm W. R.; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Broeks, Annegien; Veer, Laura J. V. a. n't.; Hogervorst, Frans B.; Fasching, Peter A.; Schrauder, Michael G.; Ekici, Arif B.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Bojesen, Stig E.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Nielsen, Sune F.; Flyger, Henrik; Benitez, Javier; Zamora, Pilar M.; Perez, Jose I. A.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Dunning, Alison M.; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Couch, Fergus J.; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E.; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Mulot, Claire; Marme, Frederick; Burwinkel, Barbara; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J.; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A. E. M.; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J.; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E.; Ambrosone, Christine B.; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Barile, Monica; Mariani, Paolo; Hooning, Maartje J.; Martens, John W. M.; Collée, J. Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Giles, Graham G.; McLean, Catriona; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S.; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Mannermaa, Arto; Hamann, Ute; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Easton, Douglas F.; Nevanlinna, Heli

    2014-01-01

    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94–0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01–1.05) located in the 3′ UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects. PMID:25390939

  1. MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L; Muranen, Taru A; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K; Liu, Jianjun; Hall, Per; Irwanto, Astrid; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Czene, Kamila; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Johnson, Nichola; Gibson, Lorna; Aitken, Zoe; Hopper, John L; Tsimiklis, Helen; Bui, Minh; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F; Southey, Melissa C; Apicella, Carmel; Stone, Jennifer; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel A; van der Luijt, Rob B; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Chanock, Stephen J; Hunter, David J; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Reed, Malcolm W R; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Broeks, Annegien; Van't Veer, Laura J; Hogervorst, Frans B; Fasching, Peter A; Schrauder, Michael G; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Bojesen, Stig E; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Flyger, Henrik; Benitez, Javier; Zamora, Pilar M; Perez, Jose I A; Haiman, Christopher A; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Pharoah, Paul D P; Dunning, Alison M; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Couch, Fergus J; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Mulot, Claire; Marme, Frederick; Burwinkel, Barbara; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Sawyer, Elinor J; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J; Kristensen, Vessela N; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E; Ambrosone, Christine B; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Barile, Monica; Mariani, Paolo; Hooning, Maartje J; Martens, John W M; Collée, J Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Giles, Graham G; McLean, Catriona; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Mannermaa, Arto; Hamann, Ute; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Easton, Douglas F; Nevanlinna, Heli

    2014-01-01

    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05) located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

  2. MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Khan

    Full Text Available Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in microRNAs (miRNA or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS. Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC. Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI: 0.88-0.96, rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99, rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05 located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

  3. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  4. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  5. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  6. Hierarchical analysis of cardiovascular risk factors in relation to the development of acute coronary syndromes, in different parts of Greece: the CARDIO2000 study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Pitsavos, Christos; Chrysohoou, Christine; Stefanadis, Christodoulos

    2008-01-01

    During 2000 to 2002, 700 men (59 +/- 10 years) and 148 women (65 +/- 9 years) patients with first event of an ACS were randomly selected from cardiology clinics of Greek regions. Afterwards, 1078 population-based, age-matched and sex-matched controls were randomly selected from the same hospitals. The frequency ratio between men and women in the case series of patients was about 4:1, in both south and north Greek areas. Hierarchical classification analysis showed that for north Greek areas family history of coronary heart disease, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes (explained variability 35%), and less significantly, dietary habits, smoking, body mass index, and physical activity status (explained variability 4%) were associated with the development of ACS, whereas for south Greek areas hypercholesterolemia, family history of coronary heart disease, diabetes, smoking, hypertension, dietary habits, physical activity (explained variability 34%), and less significantly body mass index (explained variability <1%), were associated with the development of the disease.

  7. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  8. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  9. Humorous Relations: Attentiveness, Pleasure and Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayo, Cris

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on the structures of humor and joke telling that require particular kinds of attentiveness and particular relationships between speaker and audience, or more specifically, between classmates. First, I will analyze the pedagogical and relational preconditions that are necessary for humor to work. If humor is to work well, the…

  10. Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

    OpenAIRE

    In-Fun Li; Yvonne Hsiung; Hui-Fen Hsing; Mei-Yu Lee; Te-Hsin Chang; Ming-Yuan Huang

    2016-01-01

    Background: As a vital issue in geriatric research, risk factors for falls were concluded to be multifactorial, and prevention has been mostly aimed at decreasing situational and environmental risks that cause and aggravate fall-related injuries, particularly within the institutions. While knowledge is limited about older patients' intrinsic determinants, the purpose of this study was to explore elderly Taiwanese's intrinsic risk factors associated with severe fall-related injuries. Method...

  11. Public attitudes towards industrial, work-related and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prescott-Clarke, P.

    1982-01-01

    Two reports describing work sponsored by the Health and Safety Executive are presented. The first describes a study of public attitudes towards industrial, work related, nuclear industry related and other risks. The second report describes public attitudes towards the acceptability of risks. (U.K.)

  12. Brain tumour risk in relation to mobile telephone use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Christoffer

    2010-01-01

    The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology.......The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology....

  13. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  14. Mitigating risks related to facilities management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Daniel P; Scarborough, Sydney

    2013-07-01

    By looking at metrics focusing on the functionality, age, capital investment, transparency, and sustainability (FACTS) of their organizations' facilities, facilities management teams can build potential business cases to justify upgrading the facilities. A FACTS analysis can ensure that capital spent on facilities will produce a higher or more certain ROI than alternatives. A consistent process for managing spending helps to avoid unexpected spikes that cost the enterprise more in the long run.

  15. Analysis of Historical Rainfall Data and Associated Risks on Rain ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    distribution over the last six decades and tries to do a number of weather induced risk analysis in relation to different rainfall events that has special importance to the local farmers. Different type of rainfall events over the past six decades was assessed in relation to Ethiopian rain fed” tef” production. Tef is an important ...

  16. Energy use and related risk management problems in CEE countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ney, R.; Michna, J.; Ekmanis, J.; Zeltins, N.; Zebergs, V.

    2008-01-01

    Nowadays, the efficiency of energy use in the Central and East-European (CEE) countries is insufficient, being much lower than in the 'Old Europe'. The problem becomes increasingly pressing due to non-stop increasing prices of energy carriers (especially of crude oil). The authors trace the development of research activities in this sphere, classifying the revealed changes in parameters of energy consumption processes in particular time intervals into deterministic, probabilistic, and fuzzy. The paper presents a thorough analysis of decision-making in the energy management at its different levels normative, strategic, and operative. Particular attention is given to the management under uncertainty conditions - i.e. to the risk management. The most wanted research directions in this area proposed by the energy and environment policy (EEP) Center specially created for CEE countries concern management under risk connected with innovations, international activities, loss of reputation, etc.. The authors consider in detail the risk management with insufficient knowledge (non-knowledge) and under chaos. Much consideration is given to the scenario management and the game theory principles as related to the sphere of energy use. (Authors)

  17. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  18. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  19. Assessing the risk of work-related international travel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druckman, Myles; Harber, Philip; Liu, Yihang; Quigley, Robert L

    2014-11-01

    To identify factors affecting the likelihood of requiring medical services during international business trips. Data from more than 800,000 international trips and medical assistance cases provided to 48 multinational corporations in 2009. Travel destination countries were grouped into four a priori risk-related categories. Travel to "low" medical risk countries in aggregate accounted for more hospitalizations and medical evacuations than travel to "high" medical risk countries. Nevertheless, the risk per trip was much higher for travel to higher medical risk countries. Corporations with employees on international travel should allocate sufficient resources to manage and ideally prevent medical issues during business travel. Travel medicine must focus on more than infectious diseases, and programs are necessary for both high- and low-risk regions. Improved understanding of travel-related needs determines resource allocation and risk mitigation efforts.

  20. Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

    1988-08-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented

  1. Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

    1988-08-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented.

  2. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Sibel ÇELİK; Yasemin Deniz AKARIM

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks s...

  3. On accounting difficulties: Risks related to nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plot, Emmanuelle; Vidal, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of three accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping

  4. On accounting difficulties: risks related to nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plot, E.; Vidal, O.

    2014-01-01

    An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of 3 accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping. (authors)

  5. Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Gagarina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambient scent type (vanilla vs. peppermint and intensiveness (8 (1mg vs. 16 sprays (2mg of scent concentrate in the same room were manipulated as between subject variables. Risk aversion, effect of anchoring heuristic on bidding, and affect (risk and benefit heuristics were tracked as dependent variables. Scientific aim: To identify whether ambient scent type and intensiveness have effect on risk related behaviour. Findings: Evidence suggests that there are effects of ambient scent on risk related behaviour, thus fulfilling the missing gap to relate ambient environment to decision making heuristics when risks are involved. However, not all heuristics were affected by experimental conditions. Subjects were bidding significantly higher amounts under low anchor conditions, when peppermint scent was around (if compared to vanilla group. Affect risk was perceived as lower in peppermint ambient scent conditions, if compared to the control group. Intensity of ambient scent also had influence on affect risk: subjects perceived less risk under high scent intensity conditions. Conclusions: By manipulating ambient scent, marketers may reduce or increase consumers risk perception and behaviour and as a consequence influence their purchase decisions. Marketers could use peppermint scent in high intensiveness in the situations where they want consumers to undertake higher risks (expensive purchases, gambling, insurance, since stakes were higher under peppermint ambient scent condition

  6. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  7. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  8. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteleone, S.

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research

  9. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monteleone, S. [comp.] [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research. Selected papers have been indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  10. Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

  11. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  12. The evolution of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy--Canadian consumer and producer behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Goddard, Ellen

    2011-01-01

    In this study the dynamics of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) held by Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers were evaluated. Since the first domestic case of BSE in 2003, Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers have needed to make decisions on whether or not their purchasing/production behavior should change. Such changes in their behavior may relate to their levels of risk perceptions about BSE, risk perceptions that may be evolving over time and be affected by BSE media information available. An econometric analysis of the behavior of consumers and cow-calf producers might identify the impacts of evolving BSE risk perceptions. Risk perceptions related to BSE are evaluated through observed market behavior, an approach that differs from traditional stated preference approaches to eliciting risk perceptions at a particular point in time. BSE risk perceptions may be specified following a Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) derived from sociology, psychology, and economics. Based on the SARF, various quality and quantity indices related to BSE media information are used as explanatory variables in risk perception equations. Risk perceptions are approximated using a predictive difference approach as defined by Liu et al. (1998). Results showed that Canadian consumer and cow-calf producer risk perceptions related to BSE have been amplified or attenuated by both quantity and quality of BSE media information. Government policies on risk communications need to address the different roles of BSE information in Canadian consumers' and cow-calf producers' behavior.

  13. Evaluation of energy related risk acceptance (APHA energy task force)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, A.P.

    1977-01-01

    Living in a technological society with large energy requirements involves a number of related actities with attendant health risks, both to the working and to the general public. Therefore, the formulation of some general principles for risk acceptance is necessary. In addition to maximizing benefits and minimizing risk, relevant considerations must be made about the perception of risk as voluntary or involuntary, the number of persons collectively at risk at any one occasion, and the extent to which a risk is a familiar one. With regard to a given benefit, such as a given amount of energy, comparisons of the risks of alternate modes of production may be utilized. However, cost-benefit consideration is essential to the amelioration of current or prospective risks. This is unusual, since it is based on some estimate of the monetary value per premature death averted. It is proposed that increased longevity would be a more satisfactory measure. On a societal basis, large expenditures for additional energy-related pollution control do not appear justifiable since much larger, nonenergy-related health risks are relatively underaddressed. Knowledgeable health professionals could benefit the public by imparting authoritative information in this area

  14. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  15. Relative risk perception for terrorism: implications for preparedness and risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caponecchia, Carlo

    2012-09-01

    Terrorism presents a significant risk that is often approached at public policy, infrastructure, or emergency management level. Public perceptions of the likelihood of terrorist events, and how this may relate to individual preparedness, are not always extensively examined. The tendency to think that negative events are less likely to happen to oneself than to the average person is known as optimism bias. Optimism bias is relevant to perceptions of terrorism, because it is thought to be related to a reduction in precaution use. Using an online survey of 164 participants, this study aimed to determine whether Sydney residents thought they had a lower likelihood of experiencing terrorist events than other Australians. Significant optimism bias was observed for witnessing terrorist events, but not for personally experiencing terrorist events. In addition, Sydney residents tended to think that terrorist attacks were more likely to occur in Sydney than another major Australian city in the next five years. At the same time, household and workplace preparedness for terrorism was quite low, as was awareness of emergency strategies in the central business district. Perceptions of high likelihood of terrorism happening in one's own city, yet low preparedness present a challenge for risk communication and emergency management strategies. The diversity of possible terrorist targets, and the simple plans that can moderate the effects of a disaster may need to be emphasized in future anti-terrorism initiatives. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

    1999-01-01

    This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event

  17. Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M. [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology

    1999-12-01

    This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event.

  18. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  19. Consideration of measurement errors in the analysis of the risk related to the exposure to ionising radiation in an occupational cohort: application to the French cohort of uranium miners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allodji, Rodrigue Setcheou

    2011-01-01

    In epidemiological studies, measurement errors in exposure can substantially bias the estimation of the risk associated to exposure. A broad variety of methods for measurement error correction has been developed, but they have been rarely applied in practice, probably because their ability to correct measurement error effects and their implementation are poorly understood. Another important reason is that many of the proposed correction methods require to know measurement errors characteristics (size, nature, structure and distribution). The aim of this thesis is to take into account measurement error in the analysis of risk of lung cancer death associated to radon exposure based on the French cohort of uranium miners. The mains stages were (1) to assess the characteristics (size, nature, structure and distribution) of measurement error in the French uranium miners cohort, (2) to investigate the impact of measurement error in radon exposure on the estimated excess relative risk (ERR) of lung cancer death associated to radon exposure, and (3) to compare the performance of methods for correction of these measurement error effects. The French cohort of uranium miners includes more than 5000 miners chronically exposed to radon with a follow-up duration of 30 years. Measurement errors have been characterized taking into account the evolution of uranium extraction methods and of radiation protection measures over time. A simulation study based on the French cohort of uranium miners has been carried out to investigate the effects of these measurement errors on the estimated ERR and to assess the performance of different methods for correcting these effects. Measurement error associated to radon exposure decreased over time, from more than 45% in the early 70's to about 10% in the late 80's. Its nature also changed over time from mostly Berkson to classical type from 1983. Simulation results showed that measurement error leads to an attenuation of the ERR towards the null

  20. The risk communication using the special website of the society of risk analysis for the Great East Japan Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsubokawa, Hiroaki; Nagasaka, Toshinari; Sunaga, Yohei; Lee, Taiyoung; Taguchi, Hitoshi; Usuda, Yuichiro

    2011-01-01

    The Society for Risk Analysis Japan built the special website that reply to the people who are concerning the risk related to the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011. Although, there were many risk communication activities between the specialists of the risk research and citizens on the website, there are some significant problems for the risk communication using the website. This report summarizes the result of our activity. (author)

  1. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  2. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  3. Effects of trust and governance on relational risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooteboom, B.; Berger, J.; Noorderhaven, N.G.

    In transaction cost economics, foist has been treated as redundant or even misleading. This study tested the effects of governance and trust the risk perceived by agents of firms in alliances. Two dimensions of relational risk were assessed: the probability that something will go wrong and the size

  4. Beyond the contract: managing risk in supply chain relations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, H.C.; Sakaguchi, J.; Kawai, T.

    2013-01-01

    As a consequence of the development of intensified relations with suppliers, for many firms the supply chain has become a significant source of risk exposure. In this paper we examine firms' use of control practices to manage risks associated with intensified collaboration with supply chain

  5. Dimensional Analysis and General Relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovatt, Ian

    2009-01-01

    Newton's law of gravitation is a central topic in the first-year physics curriculum. A lecturer can go beyond the physical details and use the history of gravitation to discuss the development of scientific ideas; unfortunately, the most recent chapter in this history, general relativity, is not covered in first-year courses. This paper discusses…

  6. Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Alina Gagarina; Indre Pikturniene

    2016-01-01

    The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla) and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambi...

  7. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  8. Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  9. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  10. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  11. Climate risk assessment in museums : degradation risks determined from temperature and relative humidity data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martens, M.H.J.

    2012-01-01

    The main subject of this thesis is the determination of climate risks to objects in museums on the basis of measured and/or simulated temperature and relative humidity data. The focus is on the quantification of climate related risks for the preservation quality of indoor climate in Dutch museums.

  12. Overall survival in lower IPSS risk MDS by receipt of iron chelation therapy, adjusting for patient-related factors and measuring from time of first red blood cell transfusion dependence: an MDS-CAN analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitch, Heather A; Parmar, Ambica; Wells, Richard A; Chodirker, Lisa; Zhu, Nancy; Nevill, Thomas J; Yee, Karen W L; Leber, Brian; Keating, Mary-Margaret; Sabloff, Mitchell; St Hilaire, Eve; Kumar, Rajat; Delage, Robert; Geddes, Michelle; Storring, John M; Kew, Andrea; Shamy, April; Elemary, Mohamed; Lenis, Martha; Mamedov, Alexandre; Ivo, Jessica; Francis, Janika; Zhang, Liying; Buckstein, Rena

    2017-10-01

    Analyses suggest iron overload in red blood cell (RBC) transfusion-dependent (TD) patients with myleodysplastic syndrome (MDS) portends inferior overall survival (OS) that is attenuated by iron chelation therapy (ICT) but may be biassed by unbalanced patient-related factors. The Canadian MDS Registry prospectively measures frailty, comorbidity and disability. We analysed OS by receipt of ICT, adjusting for these patient-related factors. TD International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) low and intermediate-1 risk MDS, at RBC TD, were included. Predictive factors for OS were determined. A matched pair analysis considering age, revised IPSS, TD severity, time from MDS diagnosis to TD, and receipt of disease-modifying agents was conducted. Of 239 patients, 83 received ICT; frailty, comorbidity and disability did not differ from non-ICT patients. Median OS from TD was superior in ICT patients (5·2 vs. 2·1 years; P MDS, adjusting for age, frailty, comorbidity, disability, revised IPSS, TD severity, time to TD and receiving disease-modifying agents. This provides additional evidence that ICT may confer clinical benefit. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. An analysis of the investment risk related to the integration of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant with an absorption installation for CO2 separation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartela, Łukasz; Skorek-Osikowska, Anna; Kotowicz, Janusz

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Two variants of a CHP plant – with and without integration with CCS were analyzed. • For the CHP plant main investment risk factors were identified. • For two variants risk analyses based on Monte Carlo method have been carried out. • For evaluation of the investment risk four indices were defined and calculated. - Abstract: For two variants of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant a thermodynamic, economic and risk analyses were carried out. The first variant consists of a unit working without realization of CO 2 capture process. The second one is the unit integrated with a chemical absorption CO 2 capture installation. In this variant the heat required for the desorption process is supplied with steam extracted from the steam turbine. The developed model of the CHP plant allowed to obtain main operation characteristics for annual change of load. For the two analyzed variants the characteristics of the amount of produced electricity (gross and net), generated heat and consumed chemical energy of fuel, as a function of the cogeneration unit operation time per year, were determined. In the next stage of calculations these characteristics were required to carry out the economic and risk analysis. Economic performances were evaluated in terms of the break-even price of electricity. The performed analysis proves that both investment projects will achieve the same economic effect, i.e. 85.26 €/MW h, if the price of emissions allowances reaches the value of 47.88 €/MgCO 2 . In this case, the potentially better variant of the system may be indicated based on the result of the risk analysis. In order to perform the risk analysis the main technical and economic risk factors concerning implementation of this technology were identified. The risk analysis was conducted with the use of Monte Carlo method. Based on the determined cumulative probability curves of obtaining specified values of the break-even price of electricity, it

  14. Risk communication related to animal products derived from biotechnology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrea, D

    2005-04-01

    Previous chapters of this review have dealt with the key considerations related to the application of biotechnology in veterinary science and animal production. This article explores the theory and practice of risk communication and sets out the basic principles for good risk communication when dealing with new technologies, uncertainty, and cautious and sceptical consumers. After failure to communicate with consumers and stakeholders about the risk to human health from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the 1990s, Government Agencies in the United Kingdom have made significant improvements in risk communication. The official inquiry that followed the BSE crisis concluded that a policy of openness was the correct approach, and this article emphasises the importance of consultation, consistency and transparency. There are, however, many different factors that affect public perception of risk (religious, political, social, cultural, etc.) and developing effective risk communication strategies must take all of these complex issues into consideration.

  15. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  16. Cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a detailed analysis and position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome," and "risk stratification" overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. There is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. With the objectives of clarifying these concepts and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group reviewed the evidence related to emerging cardiovascular risk factors and Canadian guideline recommendations in order to present a detailed analysis and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider risk factors related to ethnicity in order to appropriately evaluate everyone in their diverse patient populations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  19. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  20. Using prior risk-related knowledge to support risk management decisions: lessons learnt from a tunneling project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cárdenas, Ibsen Chivatá; Al-Jibouri, Saad S H; Halman, Johannes I M; van de Linde, Wim; Kaalberg, Frank

    2014-10-01

    The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site- and project-specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk-related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk-related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk-related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic-causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are

  1. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

  2. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  3. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  4. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Alcohol-Related Problems And High Risk Sexual Behaviour In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There was a significant association between alcohol-related problems and risky sexual behavior. Alcohol-related problems are fairly common in people already infected with HIV/AIDS and are associated with high-risk sexual behavior. Thus, screening and treatment should be part of an effective HIV intervention program.

  6. Risk of cancer in relatives of patients with myotonic dystrophy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, M; Diaz, L J; Gørtz, S

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Myotonic dystrophies (DM) are autosomal dominantly inherited neuromuscular disorders caused by unstable nucleotide repeat expansions. DM and cancer have been associated, but the pathogenesis behind the association remains unclear. It could relate to derived effects of the DM...... genotype in which case non-DM relatives of DM patients would not be expected to be at increased risk of cancer. To elucidate this, a population-based cohort study investigating risk of cancer in relatives of DM patients was conducted. METHODS: DM was identified using the National Danish Patient Registry...

  7. Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2006-01-01

    to nearest major road had no significant effect. CONCLUSIONS: The cause(s) or exposure(s) responsible for the urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk were closer related to the degree of urbanization than to the geographical distance to nearest major road. Traffic related exposures might thus be less......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample...

  8. Analysis of Blade Fragment Risk at a Wind Energy Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simms, David A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Larwood, Scott [University of the Pacific

    2018-04-06

    An analysis was performed to determine the risk posed by wind turbine fragments on roads and buildings at the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The authors used a previously developed model of fragment trajectory and took into account the wind speed/direction distribution at the site and the probability of rotor failure. The risk was assessed by determining the likelihood of impact and related consequences. For both the roads and buildings, the risk varied from low to routine, which was considered acceptable. The analysis was compared with previous recommendations on wind turbine setback distances. The results showed that a setback to property lines of 2 times the overall turbine height would be acceptable. However, the setback to dwellings should probably be increased from 3 to 3.5 times the overall turbine height for an acceptable risk.

  9. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  10. 原发性高血压患者视网膜病变相关危险因素分析%Analysis of related risk factors of retinopathy in patients with essential hypertension

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    江雪丰

    2016-01-01

    Objective To analyze the related factors of retinopathy HRP ( hypertensive) in hypertensive retinopathy. Methods The clinical data of 470 patients with hypertension, blood pressure, age, course of disease, cholesterol, triglyceride, fundus and other clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. Results The prevalence of hypertensive retinopathy was 66. 17%;The age, duration of hypertension, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol in HRP patients were higher than those in NHRP group(P<0.05);Logistic multiple stepwise regression analysis,The independent risk factors for the occurrence and development of HRP were the course of hypertension, the diastolic blood pressure, the history of diabetes and smoking. Conclusions The occurrence and severity of HRP are closely related to the course of hypertension, diastolic blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. Early detection of HRP related risk factors contributes to the prevention and treatment of HRP .%目的:分析影响高血压视网膜病变(hypertensive retinopathy,HRP)的相关因素。方法对470例高血压患者的血压、年龄、高血压病程、胆固醇、甘油三酯、眼底等临床资料进行回顾性分析。结果高血压视网膜病变的患病率为66.17%;HRP患者的年龄、高血压病程、收缩压、舒张压、体重指数、胆固醇、低密度脂蛋白均高于NHRP组( P<0.05);Logistic多元逐步回归分析显示,高血压病程、舒张压、糖尿病史、吸烟是HRP发生发展的独立危险因素。结论 HRP的发生及严重程度与高血压病程、舒张压、糖尿病史、吸烟史密切相关,早发现HRP的相关危险因素有助于HRP的预防和治疗。

  11. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  12. Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

    CERN Document Server

    Willmot, Gordon E

    2017-01-01

    This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

  13. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  14. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  15. Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sallé

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

  16. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

  17. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  18. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  20. Risk of bleeding related to antithrombotic treatment in cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Rikke; Olesen, Jonas B; Charlot, Mette

    2012-01-01

    Antithrombotic therapy is a cornerstone of treatment in patients with cardiovascular disease with bleeding being the most feared complication. This review describes the risk of bleeding related to different combinations of antithrombotic drugs used for cardiovascular disease: acute coronary...... syndrome (ACS), atrial fibrillation (AF), cerebrovascular (CVD) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Different risk assessment schemes and bleeding definitions are compared. The HAS-BLED risk score is recommended in patients with AF and in ACS patients with AF. In patients with ACS with or without...

  1. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  2. Explaining HIV Risk Multiplexity: A Social Network Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felsher, Marisa; Koku, Emmanuel

    2018-04-21

    Risk multiplexity (i.e., overlap in drug-use, needle exchange and sexual relations) is a known risk factor for HIV. However, little is known about predictors of multiplexity. This study uses egocentric data from the Colorado Springs study to examine how individual, behavioral and social network factors influence engagement in multiplex risk behavior. Analyses revealed that compared to Whites, Hispanics were significantly more likely to engage in risk multiplexity and Blacks less so. Respondents who were similar to each other (e.g., in terms of race) had significantly higher odds of being in risk multiplex relationships, and respondents' risk perceptions and network size were significantly associated with engaging in multiplex risk behaviors. Findings from interaction analysis showed the effect of knowing someone with HIV on the odds of multiplexity depends partly on whether respondents' know their HIV status. Findings suggest that demographics, HIV behaviors and network factors impact engagement in multiplex risk behaviors, highlighting the need for multi-level interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behavior.

  3. Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

    2016-02-01

    Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

  4. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  5. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  6. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  7. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  8. Heterogenous Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution and Relative Risk Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia; Gayle, Wayne-Roy

    This paper investigates the existence and degree of variation across house holds and over time in the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) and the coefficient of relative risk aversion (RRA) that is generated by habit forming preferences. To do so, we develop a new nonlinear GMM estimator...... in food consumption. Using these estimates, we develop bounds for the expectation of the implied heterogenous intertemporal elasticity of substitution and relative risk aversion that account for measurement errors and compute asymptotically valid confidence intervals on these bounds. We find...

  9. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

    2018-01-22

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

  10. Patient clusters in acute, work-related back pain based on patterns of disability risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, William S; Pransky, Glenn; Patterson, William; Linton, Steven J; Winters, Thomas

    2007-02-01

    To identify subgroups of patients with work-related back pain based on disability risk factors. Patients with work-related back pain (N = 528) completed a 16-item questionnaire of potential disability risk factors before their initial medical evaluation. Outcomes of pain, functional limitation, and work disability were assessed 1 and 3 months later. A K-Means cluster analysis of 5 disability risk factors (pain, depressed mood, fear avoidant beliefs, work inflexibility, and poor expectations for recovery) resulted in 4 sub-groups: low risk (n = 182); emotional distress (n = 103); severe pain/fear avoidant (n = 102); and concerns about job accommodation (n = 141). Pain and disability outcomes at follow-up were superior in the low-risk group and poorest in the severe pain/fear avoidant group. Patients with acute back pain can be discriminated into subgroups depending on whether disability is related to pain beliefs, emotional distress, or workplace concerns.

  11. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  13. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  14. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  15. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  16. Relativity Concept Inventory: Development, Analysis, and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslanides, J. S.; Savage, C. M.

    2013-01-01

    We report on a concept inventory for special relativity: the development process, data analysis methods, and results from an introductory relativity class. The Relativity Concept Inventory tests understanding of relativistic concepts. An unusual feature is confidence testing for each question. This can provide additional information; for example,…

  17. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  18. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  19. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  20. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  1. Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  3. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)

    2016-07-15

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  4. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  5. Cancer-related fatigue: Mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Julienne E.

    2015-01-01

    Fatigue is one of the most common and distressing side effects of cancer and its treatment, and may persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and may be a risk factor for reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in cancer patients has been well characterized, and there is growing understanding of underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation has emerged as a key biological pathway for cancer-related fatigue, with studies documenting links between markers of inflammation and fatigue before, during, and particularly after treatment. There is considerable variability in the experience of cancer-related fatigue that is not explained by disease- or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors may play an important role in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have begun to identify genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioral risk factors for cancer-related fatigue. Given the multi-factorial nature of cancer-related fatigue, a variety of intervention approaches have been examined in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. Although there is currently no gold standard for treating fatigue, several of these approaches have shown beneficial effects and can be recommended to patients. This report provides a state of the science review of mechanisms, risk factors, and interventions for cancer-related fatigue, with a focus on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients. PMID:25113839

  6. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  7. Cancer risk factors in Korean news media: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kye, Su Yeon; Kwon, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Yong-Chan; Shim, Minsun; Kim, Jee Hyun; Cho, Hyunsoon; Jung, Kyu Won; Park, Keeho

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the news coverage of cancer risk factors in Korea. This study aimed to examine how the news media encompasses a wide array of content regarding cancer risk factors and related cancer sites, and investigate whether news coverage of cancer risk factors is congruent with the actual prevalence of the disease. A content analysis was conducted on 1,138 news stories covered during a 5-year period between 2008 and 2012. The news stories were selected from nationally representative media in Korea. Information was collected about cancer risk factors and cancer sites. Of various cancer risk factors, occupational and environmental exposures appeared most frequently in the news. Breast cancer was mentioned the most in relation to cancer sites. Breast, cervical, prostate, and skin cancer were overrepresented in the media in comparison to incidence and mortality cases, whereas lung, thyroid, liver, and stomach cancer were underrepresented. To our knowledge, this research is the first investigation dealing with news coverage about cancer risk factors in Korea. The study findings show occupational and environmental exposures are emphasized more than personal lifestyle factors; further, more prevalent cancers in developed countries have greater media coverage, not reflecting the realities of the disease. The findings may help health journalists and other health storytellers to develop effective ways to communicate cancer risk factors.

  8. Meta-analysis of the risk of gastric stump cancer: detection of high risk patient subsets for stomach cancer after remote partial gastrectomy for benign conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tersmette, A. C.; Offerhaus, G. J.; Tersmette, K. W.; Giardiello, F. M.; Moore, G. W.; Tytgat, G. N.; Vandenbroucke, J. P.

    1990-01-01

    Controversy about gastric cancer risk after partial gastrectomy exists, especially in the United States. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to determine overall relative risk and weighted mean relative risk for subsets of postgastrectomy patients, define possible high risk patients suitable for

  9. Are we overestimating the stroke risk related to contraceptive pills?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gompel, Anne; Plu-Bureau, Genevieve

    2014-02-01

    Hormonal contraceptives are used by million of women worldwide. Ischemic stroke is one of the major harmful effects of hormonal contraceptives, but remains a very uncommon disease before menopause. The increased risk of stroke under third and fourth-generation contraceptive pills and nonoral contraceptives has been recently highlighted. Given the benefits associated with combined hormonal contraceptives (COCs), it is important to properly evaluate their risks in order to provide a better benefit/risk balance to young women. Scarce studies addressing the rates of stroke in young women suggest that the fraction attributable to the contraceptive pill remains low. In contrast, there is abundant literature on the relative risks of stroke under COCs. The risk of arterial disease seems to be similar among users of second and third-generation pills, drospirenone-containing pills and nonoral hormonal contraceptives. Progestin-only contraceptives do not appear to be associated with an increased risk of stroke. New formulations of hormonal contraceptives are not safer than second-generation COCs. Even if the absolute numbers of strokes attributable to hormonal contraceptives is very low, stringent selection of patients should help to reduce the events still more, and progestin-only contraceptives/nonhormonal methods should be preferred in cases of associated risk factors.

  10. Risk of bleeding related to antithrombotic treatment in cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Rikke; Olesen, Jonas B; Charlot, Mette

    2012-01-01

    Antithrombotic therapy is a cornerstone of treatment in patients with cardiovascular disease with bleeding being the most feared complication. This review describes the risk of bleeding related to different combinations of antithrombotic drugs used for cardiovascular disease: acute coronary...... syndrome (ACS), atrial fibrillation (AF), cerebrovascular (CVD) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Different risk assessment schemes and bleeding definitions are compared. The HAS-BLED risk score is recommended in patients with AF and in ACS patients with AF. In patients with ACS with or without...... a stent dual antiplatelet therapy with a P2Y12 receptor antagonist and acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) is recommended for 12 months, preferable with prasugrel or ticagrelor unless there is an additional indication of warfarin or increased risk of bleeding. In patients with AF, warfarin is recommended...

  11. Elite athletes experiences with risk related to cardiac screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jonas Schmidt; Thing, Lone Friis

    Society of Cardiology as well as major sports federations such as the International Olympic Committee, however, these recommendations seem to be based on an inadequate empirical foundation, just as the costs of performing cardiac screening on a larger scale seem out of proportion. Additionally, the field...... perspective on risk (Foucault 1988). For most elite athletes participation in cardiac screening is done out of a wish to obtain an acquittal from risks. Symptomatic of the risk society cardiac screening can from an athlete perspective at the same time be seen as an attempt to gain control over......Elite Athletes experiences with risks related to Cardiac Screening Jonas Schmidt Christensen1, Lone Friis Thing1 1University of Copenhagen - Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports (NEXS), Cardiac screening of elite athletes are recommended by both the American Heart Association & the European...

  12. Perception of radiation related risks among three population groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihai, L.T.; Milu, C.; Voicu, B.; Enachescu, D.

    2003-01-01

    A questionnaire survey was conducted among three groups that mainly differ in socioeconomic status and professional exposure to ionizing radiations. Seventy-seven (26.3%) of the respondents were professionally exposed to radiation, 35 (11.9%) were medical doctors without professional exposure and 177 (68.4%) belonged to the general population group. The level of anxiety toward radiation, expressed as a concernedness index, is significantly lower in people who are professionally exposed to radiation compared to medical doctors and general population (0.81±0.94, 1.42±1.21 and 1.72±1.34 respectively, p < 0.001). In a similar manner, concernedness index values varied with the education status, with lowest values among medical university graduates and highest among public school graduates (p < 0.001). Both university-graduated groups significantly differ from the non-university groups (p < 0.05). Knowledge about radiation and knowledge about emergency plans in nuclear accident/incident were also checked in relation with concernedness, the results confirming the hypothesis that better knowledge associates lower concernedness. The extent to which people accept the civil utilization of nuclear power is also related to concernedness and knowledge, significant associations having been found. The results suggest that a political decision in radiation matter requires a valid analysis of the public's understanding and acceptance. For that reason, it is important that radiological protection authorities develop new plans and materials for communicating with people, in order to improve knowledge upon ionizing radiation, irradiation risks and safety of nuclear energy application for civil purposes. (author)

  13. [Occupational risk related to optical radiation exposure in construction workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobba, F; Modenese, A

    2012-01-01

    Optical Radiation is a relevant occupational risk in construction workers, mainly as a consequence of the exposure to the ultraviolet (UV) component of solar radiation (SR). Available data show that UV occupational limits are frequently exceeded in these workers, resulting in an increased occupational risk of various acute and chronic effects, mainly to skin and to the eye. One of the foremost is the carcinogenic effect: SR is indeed included in Group 1 IARC (carcinogenic to humans). UV exposure is related to an increase of the incidence of basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma of the skin and cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). The incidence of these tumors, especially CMM, is constantly increasing in Caucasians in the last 50 years. As a conclusion, an adequate evaluation of the occupational risk related to SR, and adequate preventive measures are essential in construction workers. The role of occupational physicians in prevention is fundamental.

  14. Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2006-01-01

    : The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road had a significant effect. The highest risk was found in children living 500-1000 metres from nearest major road (RR=1.30 (95% Confidence Interval: 1.17-1.44). However, when we accounted for the degree of urbanization, the geographical distance...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...

  15. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  16. Aerobic fitness related to cardiovascular risk factors in young children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K

    2012-01-01

    Low aerobic fitness (maximum oxygen uptake (VO(2PEAK))) is predictive for poor health in adults. In a cross-sectional study, we assessed if VO(2PEAK) is related to a composite risk factor score for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in 243 children (136 boys and 107 girls) aged 8 to 11 years. VO(2PEAK...

  17. HIV/AIDS Related Knowledge and Perceived Risk Associated with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using data from the 2004 National Survey of Adolescents in Uganda, logistic regression models were fitted to examine the odds that HIV/AIDS related knowledge and perceived risk of HIV infection are associated with condom use among adolescents. After including demographic measures, findings indicated that correct ...

  18. Cancer-related fatigue--mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Julienne E

    2014-10-01

    Fatigue is one of the most common adverse effects of cancer that might persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and might be a risk factor of reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in patients with cancer have been well characterized and there is growing understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation seems to have a key role in fatigue before, during, and after cancer-treatment. However, there is a considerable variability in the presentation of cancer-related fatigue, much of which is not explained by disease-related or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors might be important in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have identified genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioural risk factors associated with cancer-related fatigue. Although no current gold-standard treatment for fatigue is available, a variety of intervention approaches have shown beneficial effects in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. This Review describes the mechanisms, risk factors, and possible interventions for cancer-related fatigue, focusing on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients.

  19. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  20. Confusing Relative Risk with Absolute Risk Is Associated with More Enthusiastic Beliefs about the Value of Cancer Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caverly, Tanner J; Prochazka, Allan V; Binswanger, Ingrid A; Kutner, Jean S; Matlock, Daniel D

    2014-07-01

    Reviews of how data are presented in medical literature document that the benefit from an intervention is often exaggerated relative to the harm (e.g., relative risk for benefit and absolute risk for harm). Such mismatched presentations may create unwarranted enthusiasm, especially among those who misinterpret the statistics presented. The objective was to determine whether misinterpretation of risk data predicts enthusiasm for cancer screening. The authors administered a survey with 14 items assessing beliefs about cancer screening and 6 items measuring data interpretation ability. Multiple linear regression was used to evaluate the association between data interpretation and enthusiasm for cancer screening, with adjustment for gender and year graduated from medical school. Eighty-eight of 139 physicians at a state-wide professional meeting returned completed surveys (63% response rate). Lower data interpretation scores were associated with higher enthusiasm for cancer screening scores (P = 0.004) in the adjusted primary analysis. Confusing relative risk with absolute risk appeared to drive the overall association. Biased presentations of risk data could affect general beliefs about the value of cancer screening, especially among physicians who uncritically accept mismatched presentations of data. © The Author(s) 2014.

  1. Waterborne disease-related risk perceptions in the Sonora River basin, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morua, Agustin Robles; Halvorsen, Kathleen E; Mayer, Alex S

    2011-05-01

    Waterborne disease is estimated to cause about 10% of all diseases worldwide. However, related risk perceptions are not well understood, particularly in the developing world where waterborne disease is an enormous problem. We focus on understanding risk perceptions related to these issues in a region within northern Mexico. Our findings show how waterborne disease problems and solutions are understood in eight small communities along a highly contaminated river system. We found major differences in risk perceptions between health professionals, government officials, and lay citizens. Health professionals believed that a high level of human-waste-related risk existed within the region. Few officials and lay citizens shared this belief. In addition, few officials and lay citizens were aware of poor wastewater-management-related disease outbreaks and water contamination. Finally, aside from health professionals, a few interviewees understood the importance of basic hygiene and water treatment measures that could help to prevent disease. Our results add to the literature on environmentally-related risk perceptions in the developing world. We discuss recommendations for improving future human-wastewater-related risk communication within the region. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-01-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage

  3. Antepartum Fetal Monitoring and Spectral Analysis of Preterm Birth Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Păsăricără, Alexandru; Nemescu, Dragoş; Arotăriţei, Dragoş; Rotariu, Cristian

    2017-11-01

    The monitoring and analysis of antepartum fetal and maternal recordings is a research area of notable interest due to the relatively high value of preterm birth. The interest stems from the improvement of devices used for monitoring. The current paper presents the spectral analysis of antepartum heart rate recordings conducted during a study in Romania at the Cuza Voda Obstetrics and Gynecology Clinical Hospital from Iasi between 2010 and 2014. The study focuses on normal and preterm birth risk subjects in order to determine differences between these two types or recordings in terms of spectral analysis.

  4. Malaria in Africa: vector species' niche models and relative risk maps.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Moffett

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available A central theoretical goal of epidemiology is the construction of spatial models of disease prevalence and risk, including maps for the potential spread of infectious disease. We provide three continent-wide maps representing the relative risk of malaria in Africa based on ecological niche models of vector species and risk analysis at a spatial resolution of 1 arc-minute (9 185 275 cells of approximately 4 sq km. Using a maximum entropy method we construct niche models for 10 malaria vector species based on species occurrence records since 1980, 19 climatic variables, altitude, and land cover data (in 14 classes. For seven vectors (Anopheles coustani, A. funestus, A. melas, A. merus, A. moucheti, A. nili, and A. paludis these are the first published niche models. We predict that Central Africa has poor habitat for both A. arabiensis and A. gambiae, and that A. quadriannulatus and A. arabiensis have restricted habitats in Southern Africa as claimed by field experts in criticism of previous models. The results of the niche models are incorporated into three relative risk models which assume different ecological interactions between vector species. The "additive" model assumes no interaction; the "minimax" model assumes maximum relative risk due to any vector in a cell; and the "competitive exclusion" model assumes the relative risk that arises from the most suitable vector for a cell. All models include variable anthrophilicity of vectors and spatial variation in human population density. Relative risk maps are produced from these models. All models predict that human population density is the critical factor determining malaria risk. Our method of constructing relative risk maps is equally general. We discuss the limits of the relative risk maps reported here, and the additional data that are required for their improvement. The protocol developed here can be used for any other vector-borne disease.

  5. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  6. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  7. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  8. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  9. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-09-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional 'Standard I', which has a paternalistic orientation, and 'Standard II', established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

  10. The perils of picky eating: dietary breadth is related to extinction risk in insectivorous bats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin G Boyles

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Several recent papers evaluate the relationship between ecological characteristics and extinction risk in bats. These studies report that extinction risk is negatively related to geographic range size and positively related to habitat specialization. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that extinction risk is also related to dietary specialization in insectivorous vespertilionid bats using both traditional and phylogenetically-controlled analysis of variance. We collected dietary data and The World Conservation Union (IUCN rankings for 44 Australian, European, and North American bat species. Our results indicate that species of conservation concern (IUCN ranking near threatened or above are more likely to have a specialized diet than are species of least concern. Additional analyses show that dietary breadth is not correlated to geographic range size or wing morphology, characteristics previously found to correlate with extinction risk. Therefore, there is likely a direct relationship between dietary specialization and extinction risk; however, the large variation in dietary breadth within species of least concern suggests that diet alone cannot explain extinction risk. Our results may have important implications for the development of predictive models of extinction risk and for the assignment of extinction risk to insectivorous bat species. Similar analyses should be conducted on additional bat families to assess the generality of this relationship between niche breadth and extinction risk.

  11. Explanatory risk factors in the relations between schizotypy and indicators of suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, Danielle R; DeVylder, Jordan E; Hilimire, Matthew R

    2016-04-30

    Schizotypy has been linked to suicide risk, but it is not known whether established suicide-related risk factors mediate this relation. The aim of this study was to assess the mediating effects of depressive symptoms, social anxiety, self-esteem, and intimate disclosure in peer relationships in the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. This aim was tested in 590 young adults using a nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. After inclusion of the mediators, interpersonal schizotypy was no longer directly associated with either suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. Depression and self-esteem mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation. No variables mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and lifetime suicide attempts, and there were no significant direct relations when mediators were included. Schizotypy appears to be a distal risk factor for suicidal behavior; assessing depressive symptoms and self-esteem may provide more proximal information about suicide risk, and may be targets for mitigating suicide risk in individuals with schizotypy. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  12. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. District file of major risks for the Moselle district: B6 - The nuclear risk; B7 - The risk related to radioactive material transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-10-01

    A first document addresses the nuclear risk with some generalities (definition, occurrence, consequences for people and for the environment with an indication of exposure thresholds, presentation of individual safety directives), a discussion of the nuclear risk level in the district (history, contamination threats, preventive actions for the Cattenom nuclear plant, existence of a triple barrier for radioactive product containment, other factors aimed at nuclear safety, urban development control, control of nuclear activities, information, rescue organisation, map of concerned communes). The second document addresses the risk related to radioactive material transport with some generalities (definition, occurrence, consequences for persons and goods, individual safety directive in case of road or railway accident), a more detailed analysis of the risk in the district (situation of the radioactive material transport in the district, risk history, human and environmental stakes, preventive actions, radiation protection safety challenges, safety factors, control of transports, rescue organisation)

  14. Aerobic exercise reduces biomarkers related to cardiovascular risk among cleaners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korshøj, Mette; Ravn, Marie Højbjerg; Holtermann, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Blue-collar workers have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, elevated levels of biomarkers related to risk of cardiovascular disease, such as high-sensitive C-reactive protein, have been observed among blue-collar workers. The objective was to examine whether...... an aerobic exercise worksite intervention changes the level of inflammation biomarkers among cleaners. METHODS: The design was a cluster-randomized controlled trial with 4-month worksite intervention. Before the 116 cleaners aged 18-65 years were randomized, they signed an informed consent form...

  15. Relative and absolute risk models for cancer mortality in ankylosing spondylitis patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muirhead, C.R.; Darby, S.C.

    1989-01-01

    The updated analyses presented in this paper have indicated that, even after allowing for the effects of other variables, the relative risk of all cancers excluding leukaemia and colon cancer among the irradiated spondylitics tails off beyond twenty-five years following exposure. Additionally, the corresponding absolute excess risk also tails off. This is still the only major study to show a wearing off of the radiation-related risk for such a grouping of cancers (although some wearing off has been seen for individual cancers such as bone in other studies). Further analysis of the spondylitic data (Darby, Doll and Smith, 1988) has not found any artificial explanation for the tailing off in risk, such as changes in lifestyle. However, it is noticeable that the dose was delivered to the spondylitics in fractions (see Lewis et al., 1988, table IV) rather than instantaneously, although it is not immediately obvious why this should have affected the temporal pattern of the risk. (author)

  16. Assessment of Credit Risk Approaches in Relation with Competitiveness Increase of the Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cipovová Eva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on a presentation and analysis of selected methods of credit risk management in relation with competitiveness increase of the banking sector. The article is defined credit risk approaches under the Basel III gradually. Aim of this contribution constitutes various methods of credit risk management and effects of their usage on regulatory capital amount in respect of corporate exposures. Optimal equity amount in relation to the risk portfolio presents an essential prerequisite of performance and competitiveness growth of commercial banks. Gradually capital requirements using Standardized Approach and Internal Based Approach in a case of used and unused techniques of credit risk reduce has been quantified. We presume that sophisticated approach means significant saving for bank’s equity which increases competitiveness of banking sector also. Within the article, quantification of capital savings in case of Standardized (with and without assigned external ratings and Foundation Internal Based Approach at the selected credit portfolio has been effected.

  17. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  18. On the use of judgement in probabilistic risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apostolakis, G

    1986-05-01

    The extensive use of judgement in risk studies creates several issues related to the perception of probabilities and the value of formal theories for uncertainty analysis. The direct assessment of probability distributions may lead to biased curves that do not represent the state of knowledge of the assessors. The use of formal methods and the calibration of the analysts help alleviate some of these biases. Case studies involving the assessment of probability distributions for human error rates and for failure rates of components exemplify the importance of the careful use of expert opinions in risk studies.

  19. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

    1987-01-01

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  20. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  1. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  2. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt

    2001-01-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis. In this respect there is a

  3. Norms and international standards related to reduce risk management: A literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Fuentes

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The current work aims to develop a revision of the literature within the main concepts in the international rules and standards related to risk management in companies. By this way, there will be an analysis of issues such as the COSO - ERM model, an introduction to the ISO 27000 and 31000 standards; and the Project Management according to PMI targeted at risk management

  4. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  5. An extended risk assessment approach for chemical plants applied to a study related to pipe ruptures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milazzo, Maria Francesca; Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessments and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) in particular have been used in the chemical industry for many years to support decision-making on the choice of arrangements and measures associated with chemical processes, transportation and storage of dangerous substances. The assessments have been founded on a risk perspective seeing risk as a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences. In this paper we point to the need for extending this approach to place a stronger emphasis on uncertainties. A recently developed risk framework designed to better reflect such uncertainties is presented and applied to a chemical plant and specifically the analysis of accidental events related to the rupture of pipes. Two different ways of implementing the framework are presented, one based on the introduction of probability models and one without. The differences between the standard approach and the extended approaches are discussed from a theoretical point of view as well as from a practical risk analyst perspective.

  6. A prospective study of gait related risk factors for exercise-related lower leg pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, T M; De Clercq, D; Delbaere, K; Vanderstraeten, G; De Cock, A; Witvrouw, E

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine prospectively gait related risk factors for exercise-related lower leg pain (ERLLP) in 400 physical education students. Static lower leg alignment was determined, and 3D gait kinematics combined with plantar pressure profiles were collected. After this evaluation, all sports injuries were registered by the same sports physician during the duration of the study. Forty six subjects developed ERLLP and 29 of them developed bilateral symptoms thus giving 75 symptomatic lower legs. Bilateral lower legs of 167 subjects who developed no injuries in the lower extremities served as controls. Cox regression analysis revealed that subjects who developed ERLLP had an altered running pattern before the injury compared to the controls and included (1) a significantly more central heel-strike, (2) a significantly increased pronation, accompanied with more pressure underneath the medial side of the foot, and (3) a significantly more lateral roll-off. These findings suggest that altered biomechanics play a role in the genesis of ERLLP and thus should be considered in prevention and rehabilitation.

  7. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  8. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  9. Emerging risk – Conceptual definition and a relation to black swan type of events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flage, R.; Aven, T.

    2015-01-01

    The concept of emerging risk has gained increasing attention in recent years. The term has an intuitive appeal and meaning but a consistent and agreed definition is missing. We perform an in-depth analysis of this concept, in particular its relation to black swan type of events, and show that these can be considered meaningful and complementary concepts by relating emerging risk to known unknowns and black swans to unknown knowns, unknown unknowns and a subset of known knowns. The former is consistent with saying that we face emerging risk related to an activity when the background knowledge is weak but contains indications/justified beliefs that a new type of event (new in the context of that activity) could occur in the future and potentially have severe consequences to something humans value. The weak background knowledge among other things results in difficulty specifying consequences and possibly also in fully specifying the event itself; i.e. in difficulty specifying scenarios. Here knowledge becomes the key concept for both emerging risk and black swan type of events, allowing for taking into consideration time dynamics since knowledge develops over time. Some implications of our findings in terms of risk assessment and risk management are pointed out. - Highlights: • We perform an in-depth analysis of the concept of emerging risk. • Emerging risk and black swan type of events are shown to be complementary concepts. • We propose a definition of emerging risk where knowledge becomes the key term. • Some implications for risk assessment and risk management are pointed out.

  10. Relative Risk Appraisal, the September 11 Attacks, and Terrorism-Related Fears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Randall D.; Bryant, Richard A.; Amsel, Lawrence; Suh, Eun Jung; Cook, Joan M.; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    There are now replicated findings that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms related to the September 11, 2001, attacks occurred in large numbers of persons who did not fit the traditional definition of exposure to a traumatic event. These data are not explained by traditional epidemiologic “bull’s eye” disaster models, which assume the psychological effects are narrowly, geographically circumscribed, or by existing models of PTSD onset. In this article, the authors develop a researchable model to explain these and other terrorism-related phenomena by synthesizing research and concepts from the cognitive science, risk appraisal, traumatic stress, and anxiety disorders literatures. They propose the new term relative risk appraisal to capture the psychological function that is the missing link between the event and subjective response in these and other terrorism-related studies to date. Relative risk appraisal highlights the core notion from cognitive science that human perception is an active, multidimensional process, such that for unpredictable societal threats, proximity to the event is only one of several factors that influence behavioral responses. Addressing distortions in relative risk appraisal effectively could reduce individual and societal vulnerability to a wide range of adverse economic and ethnopolitical consequences to terrorist attacks. The authors present ways in which these concepts and related techniques can be helpful in treating persons with September 11– or terrorism-related distress or psychopathology. PMID:17516775

  11. Quasi-likelihood generalized linear regression analysis of fatality risk data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Transportation-related fatality risks is a function of many interacting human, vehicle, and environmental factors. Statistically valid analysis of such data is challenged both by the complexity of plausible structural models relating fatality rates t...

  12. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  13. Risk Factors and Biomarkers of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Nathan G.; Singh, Malkit K.; ElShelmani, Hanan; Mansergh, Fiona C.; Wride, Michael A.; Padilla, Maximilian; Keegan, David; Hogg, Ruth E.; Ambati, Balamurali K.

    2016-01-01

    A biomarker can be a substance or structure measured in body parts, fluids or products that can affect or predict disease incidence. As age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the developed world, much research and effort has been invested in the identification of different biomarkers to predict disease incidence, identify at risk individuals, elucidate causative pathophysiological etiologies, guide screening, monitoring and treatment parameters, and predict disease outcomes. To date, a host of genetic, environmental, proteomic, and cellular targets have been identified as both risk factors and potential biomarkers for AMD. Despite this, their use has been confined to research settings and has not yet crossed into the clinical arena. A greater understanding of these factors and their use as potential biomarkers for AMD can guide future research and clinical practice. This article will discuss known risk factors and novel, potential biomarkers of AMD in addition to their application in both academic and clinical settings. PMID:27156982

  14. Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

    2002-01-01

    We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings.

  15. Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

    2002-01-01

    We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings

  16. [Identification of risk factors in relatives of type-2 diabetics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas-Alvarez, Norma Angélica; Vela-Otero, Yolanda; Carrada-Brav, Teodoro

    2006-01-01

    To identify risk factors and warning signs in a sample of first-degree relatives of type-2 diabetics at the Family Medicine Unit 2 of the General Hospital in Irapuato, Guanajuato, Mexico. In a non-probabilistic sample of 360 relatives, a 14-item questionnaire was applied to measure abdominal perimeter and body mass index (obesity and overweight), eating habits, addictions and sedentarism. The questionnaire was made by general consent of experts, by applying Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient. Specific rates of prevalence by sex and age groups were estimated. 233 (65%) relatives were females. As part of their family history background, arterial hypertension was recorded in 263 (73%) and acute myocardial infarction in 97 (27%). Among the dangerous food for health consumed by the relatives of diabetics are cola drinks in 94.7%, red meat in 83%, candies in 74.7% and chips in 65.8%; only half of them consumed fresh fruits and vegetables; a quarter of them ate prickly pears or whole wheat bread. There were 163 (45.3%) persons with high-risk abdominal perimeter, and sedentarism was present in 267 (74.2%). However, obesity was 3 times more frequent in females, but excessive drinking or smoking habits were 7 times more prevailing in males. A high-risk behavior was demonstrated among relativies of diabetic patients. Therefore, a public-health educational program is required to modify risky habits. A change towards prevention rather than cure is much needed in health staff.

  17. Simple probabilistic method for relative risk evaluation of nuclear terrorism events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Songbai; Wu Jun

    2006-01-01

    On the basis of the event-tree and probability analysis methods, a probabilistic method of nuclear terrorism risk was built, and the risk of terrorism events was analyzed. With the statistical data for and hypothetical data for relative events, the relative probabilities of the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events were obtained, as well as the relative risks of these four kinds of nuclear terrorism events were calculated by using this probabilistic method. The illustrated case show that the descending sequence of damages from the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events for single event is as following: nuclear explosive and improvised nuclear explosive, nuclear facility attacked, and 'dirty bomb'. Under the hypothetical condition, the descending sequence of possibilities for the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events is as following: 'dirty bomb', nuclear facility attacked, improvised nuclear explosive and nuclear explosive, but the descending sequence of risks is as following: 'dirty bomb', improvised nuclear explosive, nuclear facility attacked, and nuclear explosive . (authors)

  18. AIDS Risk Perception and its related factors in Women with High-Risk Behaviors in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahin Tafazoli

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background & aim: AIDS is one of the major public health challenges all over the world. Perceived risk is a significant predictor of high-risk behaviors related to AIDS. Women constitute more than half of the HIV patients, and the rate of female sex workers with AIDS is more than the rest of female population. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate AIDS risk perception and its related factors in females with high-risk behaviors in Mashhad, Iran. Methods:This descriptive study was performed on 58 women who were arrested on prostitution charges and imprisoned in Mashhad Vakil Abad Prison in 2013. The data were collected using self-designed questionnaires assessing knowledge regarding AIDS as well as sexual activities and also perceived risk of HIV questionnaire. One-way ANOVA, independent samples t-test, linear regression, and Chi-square tests were run, using SPSS version 16. Results: The mean score of HIV risk perception was 18.43±5.92, which was average. There was a significant relationship between the mean score of perceived risk of HIV and knowledge regarding AIDS (P=0.005, alcohol consumption (P=0.04, history of addiction (P=0.008, using contraceptive methods (P=0.01, condom use during intercourse (P=0.02, voluntary HIV testing (P=0.001, and follow-up of HIV test (P=0.009. Conclusion:The findings of the present study revealed that knowledge, alcohol consumption, history of addiction, contraceptive methods, the rate of condom use during intercourse, as well as voluntary HIV testing and follow-up were associated with perceived risk of HIV infection. Therefore, taking the necessary steps towards health promotion through appropriate training and interventional approaches seems to be mandatory for reducing high-risk behaviors in populations with low risk perception.

  19. Risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Eugenia Nano

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSES: To assess the risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina using a case-control study. METHODS: Surveys were used for subjects' antioxidant intake, age/gender, race, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes (and type of treatment, smoking, sunlight exposure, red meat consumption, fish consumption, presence of age-related macular degeneration and family history of age-related macular degeneration. Main effects models for logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used to analyze the results. RESULTS: There were 175 cases and 175 controls with a mean age of 75.4 years and 75.5 years, respectively, of whom 236 (67.4% were female. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration, 159 (45.4% had age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 154 (44.0% in their right eyes, and 138 (39.4% in both eyes. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 47.8% had the dry type, 40.3% had the wet type, and the type was unknown for 11.9%. The comparable figures for right eyes were: 51.9%, 34.4%, and 13.7%, respectively. The main effects model was dominated by higher sunlight exposure (OR [odds ratio]: 3.3 and a family history of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 4.3. Other factors included hypertension (OR: 2.1, smoking (OR: 2.2, and being of the Mestizo race, which lowered the risk of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 0.40. Red meat/fish consumption, body mass index, and iris color did not have an effect. Higher age was associated with progression to more severe age-related macular degeneration. CONCLUSION: Sunlight exposure, family history of age-related macular degeneration, and an older age were the significant risk factors. There may be other variables, as the risk was not explained very well by the existing factors. A larger sample may produce different and better results.

  20. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  1. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Madsen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  2. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  3. Relation of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors between Parents and Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halvorsen, Tanya; Moran, Antoinette; Jacobs, David R; Steffen, Lyn M; Sinaiko, Alan R; Zhou, Xia; Steinberger, Julia

    2015-11-01

    To explore the relations of parent-child cardiometabolic risk factors and assess the influence of adiposity on these associations. Associations of adiposity, blood pressure (BP), lipids, fasting insulin and glucose, and a risk factor cluster score (CS) were evaluated in a cross-sectional study of 179 parents and their children (6-18 years, N = 255). Insulin resistance was assessed by euglycemic clamp in parents and children aged 10 years or older. Metabolic syndrome in parents was defined by National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. CSs of the risk factors were created based on age-specific z-scores. Analyses included Pearson correlation and linear regression, adjusted for parent and child age, sex, race, and body mass index (BMI), accounting for within-family correlation. We found positive parent-child correlations for measures of adiposity (BMI, BMI percentile, waist, subcutaneous fat, and visceral fat; r = 0.22-0.34, all P ≤ .003), systolic BP (r = 0.20, P = .002), total cholesterol (r = 0.39, P parent-child correlations, except systolic BP, remained significant. Although adiposity is strongly correlated between parents and children, many cardiometabolic risk factors correlate independent of parent and child BMI. Adverse parental cardiometabolic profiles may identify at-risk children independent of the child's adiposity status. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Young people's perspectives on health-related risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace Elisabeth Spencer

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Drawing upon current socio-cultural understandings of risk, this study highlights the disjunction between the expert risk discourses that permeate official public health policy and practice, and young people’s own perspectives on health and risk. Data were collected from young people aged 14-16 years through the use of group and individual interviews in a school and community youth centre setting. Findings from this study question the saliency of expert-defined health-related risks to young people’s everyday lives. Young people in this study saw health as closely linked to ‘being happy’. Friendships and a sense of personal achievement were particularly important to participants’ health and well-being. When accounting for their participation in health-related practices identified as ‘risky’ in government policy – such as smoking, alcohol and substance use – young people emphasised the levels of pressure they experienced. Sources of pressure included arguments and bullying, school work, and negative stereotypes of young people in general. These areas indicated young people’s concerns that reach beyond the official prescriptions permeating current health policy.

  5. Analysis of competing risk parameters in irradiated prostate cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer, R.; Mayer, E.; Langsenlehner, U.; Hackl, A.; Pummer, K.; Quehenberger, F.; Feigl, G.

    2003-01-01

    Purpose: Retrospective competing risk analysis of prognostic factors in definitive-irradiated prostate cancer patients. Patients and Methods: Data of 652 patients were analyzed according to three age subgroups ( 75 years; Table 1). Pre-RT PSA values (median 13.4 ng/ml) were available for 340 patients. Adjuvant hormone therapy (n = 261) consisted either of orchiectomy (n = 151) or LHRH agonist with/without antiandrogen therapy or, in the early years, diethystilbestrol. Neoadjuvant hormone therapy (n = 31) using LHRH agonists was given 6 months before and during radiotherapy. Results: Biochemical failure was observed in 69/.340 patients, 5 years after biochemical failure, 64.9% of them also had failed clinically. The cumulative incidence of local failure (LF) and distant metastases (DM) was 9.4% and 37.2%, respectively; LF and DM at the same time were seen in 18.2%. On multivariate analysis (Tables 2 and 3), advanced stage (relative risk [RR] 4.54), pre-RT PSA > 20 ng/ml (RR 2.79) and poorly differentiated tumors (RR 2.96) were significant predictors of biochemical failure. Advanced stage increased the risk of LF (RR 2.18), DM (RR 3.66), and prostate cancer death (PCD; RR 4.30). Hormone therapy decreased the risk of biochemical failure (RR 0.67), DM (RR 0.59), and PCD (RR 0.60) without reaching statistical significance. Median follow-up was 7.6 years. Conclusion: Risk of biochemical failure was predicted by pre-RT PSA, stage, and grade; in patients with biochemical failure, the cumulative incidence of death from intercurrent diseases and PCD was 25.0% and 29.2% after 5 years, respectively. The risk of DM and PCD was predicted by stage and grade. Higher age (> 75 years) decreased the relative risk of LF, DM, and PCD significantly. (orig.)

  6. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  7. Constrained principal component analysis and related techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Takane, Yoshio

    2013-01-01

    In multivariate data analysis, regression techniques predict one set of variables from another while principal component analysis (PCA) finds a subspace of minimal dimensionality that captures the largest variability in the data. How can regression analysis and PCA be combined in a beneficial way? Why and when is it a good idea to combine them? What kind of benefits are we getting from them? Addressing these questions, Constrained Principal Component Analysis and Related Techniques shows how constrained PCA (CPCA) offers a unified framework for these approaches.The book begins with four concre

  8. Seismic risk analysis for the Westinghouse Electric facility, Cheswick, Pennsylvania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    This report presents the results of a detailed seismic risk analysis of the Westinghouse Electric plutonium fuel development facility at Cheswick, Pennsylvania. This report focuses on earthquakes. The historical seismic record was established after a review of available literature, consultation with operators of local seismic arrays and examination of appropriate seismic data bases. Because of the aseismicity of the region around the site, an analysis different from the conventional closest approach in a tectonic province was adapted. Earthquakes as far from the site as 1,000 km were included, as were the possibility of earthquakes at the site. In addition, various uncertainties in the input were explicitly considered in the analysis. For example, allowance was made for both the uncertainty in predicting maximum possible earthquakes in the region and the effect of the dispersion of data about the best fit attenuation relation. The attenuation relationship is derived from two of the most recent, advanced studies relating earthquake intensity reports and acceleration. Results of the risk analysis, which include a Bayesian estimate of the uncertainties, are presented as return period accelerations. The best estimate curve indicates that the Westinghouse facility will experience 0.05 g every 220 years and 0.10 g every 1400 years. The accelerations are very insensitive to the details of the source region geometries or the historical earthquake statistics in each region and each of the source regions contributes almost equally to the cumulative risk at the site

  9. Increased relative risk of myelodysplastic syndrome in atomic bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, Kenji; Kimura, Akiro; Matsuo, Tatsuki; Tomonaga, Masao; Kodama, Kazunori; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    1998-01-01

    It was investigated what blood disorders except leukemia increased the relative risk with dose dependency in atomic bomb survivors. Subjects were 217 patients of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, who had blood disorders except leukemia and died between 1950 and 1990. Their medical records were analyzed and their diagnoses were reevaluated. Sixteen cases were diagnosed as the aplastic anemia and 12 as the myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). In the aplastic anemia, there was no correlation between the exposure dose and the mortality. In MDS, the excess relative risk (ERR)/bone marrow exposure dose of 1 Sv was very high (13.0). These results supports the hypothesis that MDS would be broken out by the clonal abnormality of the hematopoietic stem cell and radiation exposure could cause the appearance of the abnormal stem cell clone. (K.H.)

  10. Increased relative risk of myelodysplastic syndrome in atomic bomb survivors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oda, Kenji [Hiroshima City Hospital (Japan); Kimura, Akiro; Matsuo, Tatsuki; Tomonaga, Masao; Kodama, Kazunori; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    1998-12-01

    It was investigated what blood disorders except leukemia increased the relative risk with dose dependency in atomic bomb survivors. Subjects were 217 patients of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, who had blood disorders except leukemia and died between 1950 and 1990. Their medical records were analyzed and their diagnoses were reevaluated. Sixteen cases were diagnosed as the aplastic anemia and 12 as the myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). In the aplastic anemia, there was no correlation between the exposure dose and the mortality. In MDS, the excess relative risk (ERR)/bone marrow exposure dose of 1 Sv was very high (13.0). These results supports the hypothesis that MDS would be broken out by the clonal abnormality of the hematopoietic stem cell and radiation exposure could cause the appearance of the abnormal stem cell clone. (K.H.)

  11. Update on procedure-related risks for prenatal diagnosis techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabor, Ann; Alfirevic, Zarko

    2010-01-01

    Introduction: As a consequence of the introduction of effective screening methods, the number of invasive prenatal diagnostic procedures is steadily declining. The aim of this review is to summarize the risks related to these procedures. Material and Methods: Review of the literature. Results: Data...... from randomised controlled trials as well as from systematic reviews and a large national registry study are consistent with a procedure-related miscarriage rate of 0.5-1.0% for amniocentesis as well as for chorionic villus sampling (CVS). In single-center studies performance may be remarkably good due...... not be performed before 15 + 0 weeks' gestation. CVS on the other hand should not be performed before 10 weeks' gestation due to a possible increase in risk of limb reduction defects. Discussion: Experienced operators have a higher success rate and a lower complication rate. The decreasing number of prenatal...

  12. Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Neil; Chater, Nick; Stott, Henry P; Reimers, Stian

    2003-03-01

    In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.

  13. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  14. A Linguistic Analysis of Suicide-Related Twitter Posts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Dea, Bridianne; Larsen, Mark E; Batterham, Philip J; Calear, Alison L; Christensen, Helen

    2017-09-01

    Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide. Identifying those at risk and delivering timely interventions is challenging. Social media site Twitter is used to express suicidality. Automated linguistic analysis of suicide-related posts may help to differentiate those who require support or intervention from those who do not. This study aims to characterize the linguistic profiles of suicide-related Twitter posts. Using a dataset of suicide-related Twitter posts previously coded for suicide risk by experts, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) and regression analyses were conducted to determine differences in linguistic profiles. When compared with matched non-suicide-related Twitter posts, strongly concerning suicide-related posts were characterized by a higher word count, increased use of first-person pronouns, and more references to death. When compared with safe-to-ignore suicide-related posts, strongly concerning suicide-related posts were characterized by increased use of first-person pronouns, greater anger, and increased focus on the present. Other differences were found. The predictive validity of the identified features needs further testing before these results can be used for interventional purposes. This study demonstrates that strongly concerning suicide-related Twitter posts have unique linguistic profiles. The examination of Twitter data for the presence of such features may help to validate online risk assessments and determine those in need of further support or intervention.

  15. Deployment-related risk factors of low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nissen, Lars Ravnborg; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn

    2014-01-01

    Where much is known about the consequences of spinal and low back pain (LBP) during military deployments, there is lesser knowledge of risk factors for LBP among the deployed forces. The objective of this study was to identify deployment-related exposures associated with LBP. The study was a ques...... their subordinates and involve medical personnel, especially deployed physiotherapists, by giving advice to soldiers of different military occupational specialties on how to optimize ergonomics at work....

  16. Some computer simulations based on the linear relative risk model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1991-10-01

    This report presents the results of computer simulations designed to evaluate and compare the performance of the likelihood ratio statistic and the score statistic for making inferences about the linear relative risk mode. The work was motivated by data on workers exposed to low doses of radiation, and the report includes illustration of several procedures for obtaining confidence limits for the excess relative risk coefficient based on data from three studies of nuclear workers. The computer simulations indicate that with small sample sizes and highly skewed dose distributions, asymptotic approximations to the score statistic or to the likelihood ratio statistic may not be adequate. For testing the null hypothesis that the excess relative risk is equal to zero, the asymptotic approximation to the likelihood ratio statistic was adequate, but use of the asymptotic approximation to the score statistic rejected the null hypothesis too often. Frequently the likelihood was maximized at the lower constraint, and when this occurred, the asymptotic approximations for the likelihood ratio and score statistics did not perform well in obtaining upper confidence limits. The score statistic and likelihood ratio statistics were found to perform comparably in terms of power and width of the confidence limits. It is recommended that with modest sample sizes, confidence limits be obtained using computer simulations based on the score statistic. Although nuclear worker studies are emphasized in this report, its results are relevant for any study investigating linear dose-response functions with highly skewed exposure distributions. 22 refs., 14 tabs

  17. Company Risk-related Disclosures in a Code Law Country: A Synopsis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas Oliveira

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This synopsis provides a concise historical contextualisation of current risk disclosure issues, highlights major factors influencing contemporary risk reporting practices, and engages in a reflective overview of four recently published papers on aspects of corporate risk-related disclosures in a code law country, Portugal. The breadthand depth of our analysis is modest. Nonetheless we report findings indicating that risk-related disclosures are inadequate, lack transparency, and compound the difficulty of assessing the risk profile of a company. We contend that recent regulation initiatives have been of dubious effectiveness in improving the quality of riskinformation disclosed. In respect of the Portuguese context, we find that companies disclose risk-related information principally to reduce agency costs and to enhance corporate reputation. We contend that enhanced corporate accountability would be more likely to ensue if further disclosures of relevant risk-related information were mandated. One mechanism to do so would be through regulations recommended by the International Integrated Reporting Committee (IIRC.

  18. A systematic review of risk and protective factors associated with family related violence in refugee families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timshel, Isabelle; Montgomery, Edith; Dalgaard, Nina Thorup

    2017-08-01

    The current systematic review summarizes the evidence from studies examining the risk and protective factors associated with family related violence in refugee families. Data included 15 peer-reviewed qualitative and quantitative studies. In order to gain an overview of the identified risk and protective factors an ecological model was used to structure the findings. At the individual level, parental trauma experiences/mental illness, substance abuse and history of child abuse were found to be risk factors. Family level risk factors included parent-child interaction, family structure and family acculturation stress. At the societal level low socioeconomic status was identified as a risk factor. Cultural level risk factors included patriarchal beliefs. Positive parental coping strategies were a protective factor. An ecological analysis of the results suggests that family related violence in refugee families is a result of accumulating, multiple risk factors on the individual, familial, societal and cultural level. The findings suggest that individual trauma and exile related stress do not only affect the individual but have consequences at a family level. Thus, interventions targeting family related violence should not only include the individual, but the family. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. HIV-related sexual risk behavior among African American adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielson, Carla Kmett; Walsh, Kate; McCauley, Jenna; Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Brown, Jennifer L; Sales, Jessica M; Rose, Eve; Wingood, Gina M; Diclemente, Ralph J

    2014-05-01

    Latent class analysis (LCA) is a useful statistical tool that can be used to enhance understanding of how various patterns of combined sexual behavior risk factors may confer differential levels of HIV infection risk and to identify subtypes among African American adolescent girls. Data for this analysis is derived from baseline assessments completed prior to randomization in an HIV prevention trial. Participants were African American girls (n=701) aged 14-20 years presenting to sexual health clinics. Girls completed an audio computer-assisted self-interview, which assessed a range of variables regarding sexual history and current and past sexual behavior. Two latent classes were identified with the probability statistics for the two groups in this model being 0.89 and 0.88, respectively. In the final multivariate model, class 1 (the "higher risk" group; n=331) was distinguished by a higher likelihood of >5 lifetime sexual partners, having sex while high on alcohol/drugs, less frequent condom use, and history of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), when compared with class 2 (the "lower risk" group; n=370). The derived model correctly classified 85.3% of participants into the two groups and accounted for 71% of the variance in the latent HIV-related sexual behavior risk variable. The higher risk class also had worse scores on all hypothesized correlates (e.g., self-esteem, history of sexual assault or physical abuse) relative to the lower risk class. Sexual health clinics represent a unique point of access for HIV-related sexual risk behavior intervention delivery by capitalizing on contact with adolescent girls when they present for services. Four empirically supported risk factors differentiated higher versus lower HIV risk. Replication of these findings is warranted and may offer an empirical basis for parsimonious screening recommendations for girls presenting for sexual healthcare services.

  20. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P [Servicio de Radiofísica y Protección Radiológica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain); Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C [Servicio de Oncología Radioterápica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  1. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P; Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  2. A Thermorisk framework for the analysis of energy systems by combining risk and exergy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassetti, G.; Colombo, E.; Zio, E.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • An exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems is presented. • The relation between thermodynamic parameters and the safety characteristics is identified. • Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system. - Abstract: The impact of energy production, transformation and use on the environmental resources encourage to understand the mechanisms of resource degradation and to develop proper analyses to reduce the impact of the energy systems on the environment. At the technical level, most attempts for reducing the environmental impact of energy systems focus on the improvement of process efficiency. One way toward an integrated approach is that of adopting exergy analysis for assessing efficiency and test improving design and operation solutions. The paper presents an exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems, named Thermorisk analysis. The purpose of the Thermorisk analysis is to supply information to control, and eventually reduce, the risk of the systems (i.e. risk of accidents) by acting on the thermodynamic parameters and safety characteristics in the same frame. The proper combination of exergy and risk analysis allows monitoring the effects of efficiency improvement on the safety of the systems analyzed. A case study is presented, showing the potential of the analysis to identify the relation between the exergy efficiency and the risk of the system analyzed, and the contribution of inefficiencies on the safety of the process. Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system.

  3. Risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: Pooled findings from three continents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smith, W.; Assink, J.; Klein, R.; Mitchell, P.; Klaver, C. C.; Klein, B. E.; Hofman, A.; Jensen, S.; Wang, J. J.; de Jong, P. T.

    2001-01-01

    To assess the prevalence and potential risk factors for late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in three racially similar populations from North America, Europe, and AUSTRALIA: Combined analysis of population-based eye disease prevalence data. There were 14,752 participants with gradable

  4. WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 12: Odds ratio and relative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grech, Victor

    2018-07-01

    The calculation of odds ratios and relative risks may be required as part of a data analysis exercise. This paper explains how to set up these calculations in Microsoft Excel from a two by two contingency table. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  6. Modelling the genetic risk in age-related macular degeneration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Grassmann

    Full Text Available Late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD is a common sight-threatening disease of the central retina affecting approximately 1 in 30 Caucasians. Besides age and smoking, genetic variants from several gene loci have reproducibly been associated with this condition and likely explain a large proportion of disease. Here, we developed a genetic risk score (GRS for AMD based on 13 risk variants from eight gene loci. The model exhibited good discriminative accuracy, area-under-curve (AUC of the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.820, which was confirmed in a cross-validation approach. Noteworthy, younger AMD patients aged below 75 had a significantly higher mean GRS (1.87, 95% CI: 1.69-2.05 than patients aged 75 and above (1.45, 95% CI: 1.36-1.54. Based on five equally sized GRS intervals, we present a risk classification with a relative AMD risk of 64.0 (95% CI: 14.11-1131.96 for individuals in the highest category (GRS 3.44-5.18, 0.5% of the general population compared to subjects with the most common genetic background (GRS -0.05-1.70, 40.2% of general population. The highest GRS category identifies AMD patients with a sensitivity of 7.9% and a specificity of 99.9% when compared to the four lower categories. Modeling a general population around 85 years of age, 87.4% of individuals in the highest GRS category would be expected to develop AMD by that age. In contrast, only 2.2% of individuals in the two lowest GRS categories which represent almost 50% of the general population are expected to manifest AMD. Our findings underscore the large proportion of AMD cases explained by genetics particularly for younger AMD patients. The five-category risk classification could be useful for therapeutic stratification or for diagnostic testing purposes once preventive treatment is available.

  7. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  8. The Association between the Lipids Levels in Blood and Risk of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yafeng Wang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Lipid metabolism may be involved in the pathogenic mechanism of age-related macular degeneration (AMD. However, conflicting results have been reported in the associations of AMD with blood lipids. We performed a meta-analysis including a total of 19 studies to evaluate associations between blood lipids and this disease. The result reported that the high level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C obtained with an increment of 1 mmol/L could result in a significantly increase in the AMD risk of approximately 18% (relative risk (RR, 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI, 1.01 to 1.35; I2 = 53.8%; p = 0.007. High levels of total cholesterol (TC, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, and triglycerides (TG were significantly associated with a decreased risk of AMD (RRs ranging from 0.92 to 0.95; all p < 0.05. The stratified analysis based on AMD subtypes showed that these blood lipids were only significantly associated with the risk of early AMD (all p < 0.05. The association between the blood lipids and AMD risk did not differ substantially based on the other characteristics of the participants. A high HDL-C level was associated with an increased AMD risk, whereas participants with high TC, LDL-C, and TG concentrations may show a decreased risk for this disease. Further well-designed large studies are warranted to confirm the conclusions.

  9. A concept analysis of relational aggression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, M M

    2007-08-01

    The purpose of this article is to conduct a concept analysis of the phenomenon of relational aggression. With the increases in violence among our youth, the topic of aggression, and more specifically relational aggression, has gained an increasing interest. Discussion of relational aggression is imperative because it lends credence to a type of aggression not readily studied in previous decades. A new understanding of relational aggression will aide in future nursing and multidisciplinary research studies and will guide health promotion interventions to alleviate the consequences of relational aggression for adolescent girls. Therefore, with an increased knowledge about the consequences of relational aggression the nurse can provide appropriate nursing interventions to combat the detriment associated with it.

  10. Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, B; Teng, I L; Muhammad Samudi, Y

    2011-11-01

    In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board, Malaysia, and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y(-1) permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77×10(-3) risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19×10(-3) risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

  11. Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ismail, B.; Teng, I. L.; Muhammad samudi, Y.

    2011-01-01

    In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (Malaysia), and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y -1 permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77 x 10 -3 risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19 x 10 -3 risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

  12. Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu Shenping [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: sphu@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Fang Quangen [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: qgfang@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xia Haibo [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: hbxia@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xi Yongtao [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: xiyt@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn

    2007-03-15

    Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice.

  13. Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Shenping; Fang Quangen; Xia Haibo; Xi Yongtao

    2007-01-01

    Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice

  14. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs)

  15. Medication-related risk factors associated with health-related quality of life among community-dwelling elderly in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Sha; Meng, Long; Qiu, Feng; Yang, Jia-Dan; Sun, Shusen

    2018-01-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that medication adherence has an impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, other medication-related factors that may influence HRQoL have not been extensively studied, especially factors based on the Medication-Risk Questionnaire (MRQ), and such studies are mostly done in Western countries. Our objective was to explore risk factors associated with HRQoL among community-dwelling elderly with chronic diseases in mainland China, especially the medication-related risk factors regarding MRQ. The study was conducted in a community health service center through surveys to eligible patients. The main outcomes of HRQoL were assessed by the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) scale and EQ-visual analog scale (EQ-VAS). Medication-related risk factors according to MRQ associated with HRQoL were identified using a multiple linear regression. A total of 311 patients were analyzed, averaging 71.19±5.33 years, and 68.8% were female. The mean EQ-5D index was 0.72±0.09, and the mean EQ-VAS score was 71.37±11.97. The most prevalent problem was pain/discomfort, and 90.0% believed that they could take care of themselves without any problems. Sex, age, educational level, frailty, function status, and certain medication-related factors regarding MRQ were found to be significant factors impacting the HRQoL. A multivariate analysis showed that MRQ factors of polypharmacy, multimorbidity, feeling difficultly with taking medicines as prescribed, and taking medicines with narrow therapeutic index had negative impacts on the quality of life. Patient's internal characteristics and medication-related risk factors according to MRQ were associated with quality of life. The results of the MRQ is an indicator of quality of life that can identify patients who need interventions.

  16. Treatment-dependent and treatment-independent risk factors associated with the risk of diabetes-related events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wilke, Thomas; Mueller, Sabrina; Groth, Antje

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to analyse which factors predict the real-world macro-/microvascular event, hospitalisation and death risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Furthermore, we aimed to investigate whether there exists both an under- and over-treatment risk...... of these patients. METHODS: We used a German claims/clinical data set covering the years 2010-12. Diabetes-related events were defined as (1) macro-, (2) microvascular events leading to inpatient hospitalisation, (3) other hospitalisations with type 2 diabetes mellitus as main diagnosis, (4) all-cause death and (5......) a composite outcome including all event categories 1-4. Factors associated with event risk were analysed by a Kaplan-Meier curve analysis and by multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: 229,042 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (mean age 70.2 years; mean CCI 6.03) were included. Among factors...

  17. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  19. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  20. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  1. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-15

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  2. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  3. Community Perceptions of Air Pollution and Related Health Risks in Nairobi Slums

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egondi, Thaddaeus; Kyobutungi, Catherine; Ng, Nawi; Muindi, Kanyiva; Oti, Samuel; van de Vijver, Steven; Ettarh, Remare; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2013-01-01

    Air pollution is among the leading global risks for mortality and responsible for increasing risk for chronic diseases. Community perceptions on exposure are critical in determining people’s response and acceptance of related policies. Therefore, understanding people’ perception is critical in informing the design of appropriate intervention measures. The aim of this paper was to establish levels and associations between perceived pollution and health risk perception among slum residents. A cross-sectional study of 5,317 individuals aged 35+ years was conducted in two slums of Nairobi. Association of perceived score and individual characteristics was assessed using linear regression. Spatial variation in the perceived levels was determined through hot spot analysis using ArcGIS. The average perceived air pollution level was higher among residents in Viwandani compared to those in Korogocho. Perceived air pollution level was positively associated with perceived health risks. The majority of respondents were exposed to air pollution in their place of work with 66% exposed to at least two sources of air pollution. Less than 20% of the respondents in both areas mentioned sources related to indoor pollution. The perceived air pollution level and related health risks in the study community were lowamong the residents indicating the need for promoting awareness on air pollution sources and related health risks. PMID:24157509

  4. Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

    2011-12-01

    To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

  5. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  6. Hip fracture risk in relation to vitamin D supplementation and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roddam Andrew W

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Vitamin D supplementation for fracture prevention is widespread despite conflicting interpretation of relevant randomised controlled trial (RCT evidence. This study summarises quantitatively the current evidence from RCTs and observational studies regarding vitamin D, parathyroid hormone (PTH and hip fracture risk. Methods We undertook separate meta-analyses of RCTs examining vitamin D supplementation and hip fracture, and observational studies of serum vitamin D status (25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OHD level, PTH and hip fracture. Results from RCTs were combined using the reported hazard ratios/relative risks (RR. Results from case-control studies were combined using the ratio of 25(OHD and PTH measurements of hip fracture cases compared with controls. Original published studies of vitamin D, PTH and hip fracture were identified through PubMed and Web of Science databases, searches of reference lists and forward citations of key papers. Results The seven eligible RCTs identified showed no significant difference in hip fracture risk in those randomised to cholecalciferol or ergocalciferol supplementation versus placebo/control (RR = 1.13[95%CI 0.98-1.29]; 801 cases, with no significant difference between trials of 21 (heterogeneity = 51.02, p 216 (heterogeneity = 137.9, p 29 (heterogeneity = 149.68, p Conclusions Neither higher nor lower dose vitamin D supplementation prevented hip fracture. Randomised and observational data on vitamin D and hip fracture appear to differ. The reason for this is unclear; one possible explanation is uncontrolled confounding in observational studies. Post-fracture PTH levels are unrelated to hip fracture risk.

  7. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  8. Relativity concept inventory: Development, analysis, and results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. S. Aslanides

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available We report on a concept inventory for special relativity: the development process, data analysis methods, and results from an introductory relativity class. The Relativity Concept Inventory tests understanding of relativistic concepts. An unusual feature is confidence testing for each question. This can provide additional information; for example, high confidence correlated with incorrect answers suggests a misconception. A novel aspect of our data analysis is the use of Monte Carlo simulations to determine the significance of correlations. This approach is particularly useful for small sample sizes, such as ours. Our results show a gender bias that was not present in course assessment, similar to that reported for the Force Concept Inventory.

  9. Strategy for prioritizing whistleblowing with potential risks related to health services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Fernandes Barros

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Sanitary Surveillance of Health Services receives daily denunciations that refer to situations of risk that can hardly be measured quantitatively and attribute to some type of specific damage, in a context of great uncertainty. Objective: Considering such situations should be adequately addressed under the health risk paradigm, this work had as objective identifying notions about risk and its forms of analysis in the scope of Sanitary Surveillance of Health Services, as well as the existence of strategies and models in the analysis and treatment of denunciations. Method: An extensive literature review (through the Regional Portal of the BVS, databases SciELO and SciELO Books, and the journal Visa em Debate was conducted. Results: Although the results point to a relatively recent discussion regarding the model of potential risk analysis as an operational concept for the field of health surveillance in health services, there is no description of strategies or models applied to the analysis or treatment of whistleblowing. Thus, it is discussed and proposed a strategy for the initial analysis of reports with potential risk, which seeks to bring minimally objective criteria, in a field marked by enormous subjectivity. Conclusions: We conclude by indicating that the presented strategy is an initial instrument for the management of whistleblowing that must be discussed and adapted to the reality and context of health surveillance agencies.

  10. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  11. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  12. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  13. Methodology for Risk Analysis of Dam Gates and Associated Operating Equipment Using Fault Tree Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patev, Robert C; Putcha, Chandra; Foltz, Stuart D

    2005-01-01

    .... This report summarizes research on methodologies to assist in quantifying risks related to dam gates and associated operating equipment, and how those risks relate to overall spillway failure risk...

  14. Simulating the market coefficient of relative risk aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samih Antoine Azar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, expected utility, defined by a Taylor series expansion around expected wealth, is maximized. The coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA that is commensurate with a 100% investment in the risky asset is simulated. The following parameters are varied: the riskless return, the market standard deviation, the market stock premium, and the skewness and the kurtosis of the risky return. Both the high extremes and the low extremes are considered. With these figures, the upper bound of the market CRRA is 3.021 and the lower bound is 0.466. Log utility, which corresponds to a CRRA of 1, is not excluded.

  15. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  16. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  17. Analysis on risk factors for post-stroke emotional incontinence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-chun ZHANG

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective To investigate the occurrence rate and related risk factors for post-stroke emotional incontinence (PSEI. Methods The clinical data [sex, age, body mass index (BMI, education, marital status, medical history (hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, hyperlipemia, smoking and drinking and family history of stroke] of 162 stroke patients were recorded. Serum homocysteine (Hcy level was examined. Head CT and/or MRI were used to indicate stroke subtype, site of lesion and number of lesion. Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fifth Edition (DSM-Ⅴ Chinese version and Hamilton Depression Rating Scale-17 Items (HAMD-17 were used to evaluate the degree of depression. House diagnostic standard was used to diagnose PSEI. Univariate and multivariate backward Logistic regression analysis was used to screen related risk factor for PSEI. Spearman rank correlation analysis was used to discuss the correlation between PSEI and post-stroke depression (PSD. Results Among 162 stroke patients, 12 cases were diagnosed as PSEI (7.41% . The ratio of age < 60 years in PSEI group was significantly higher than non-PSEI group (P = 0.045. The ratio of smoking in PSEI group was significantly lower than non-PSEI group (P = 0.036. Univariate and multivariate backward Logistic regression analysis showed age < 60 years was independent risk factor for PSEI (OR = 4.000, 95%CI: 1.149-13.924; P = 0.029. Ten cases were combined with PSD in 12 PSEI patients, and the co-morbidity rate of PSEI and PSD was83.33%. Spearman rank correlation analysis showed PSEI was positively related to PSD (rs = 0.305, P = 0.000. Conclusions PSEI is common affective disorder in stroke patients, which easily happens in patients under 60 years of age. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2017.12.010

  18. Substance-related traffic-risk behaviors among college students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arria, Amelia M.; Caldeira, Kimberly M.; Vincent, Kathryn B.; Garnier-Dykstra, Laura M.; O’Grady, Kevin E.

    2011-01-01

    Aims Drunk driving is a major public health concern, but drugged driving has received little attention. This study examines drugged driving and riding with a drugged driver in a college student sample, in terms of prevalence, age-related trends, race/sex differences, overlap with drunk driving, and risk for alcohol and marijuana dependence. Methods Students (N=1194) ages 19 to 22 were interviewed annually for three years about past-year frequency of drugged driving, riding with a drugged/drunk driver, drunk driving, access to a car, and alcohol/drug dependence. Annual follow-up rates were excellent (88% to 91%). Repeated measures analyses were conducted using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Results One in six (17%wt) 19-year-olds with access to a car drove drugged in the past year; prevalence remained stable through age 22. Drugged driving was more prevalent among males (pdrunk (ranges between 47% and 60%). Both drugged and drunk driving were independently associated with increased risk for alcohol dependence, holding constant age, sex, and race. Drunk driving did not add to the risk for marijuana dependence in the context of drugged driving. Conclusions The prevalence of drugged driving is similar to drunk driving among college students. Both are strongly associated with underlying alcohol and drug dependence. Prevention and treatment implications are discussed. PMID:21601379

  19. The approach to risk analysis in three industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1991-01-01

    It is the purpose of this paper to review how risk and safety analysis is performed in the three major industries of nuclear power, space flight, and chemical and petroleum processes. The underlying reason for such a review is the belief that efficiencies and safety enhancements may result from a greater exchange of risk assessment technology between these industries. The thrust of this discussion related to the engineered systems involved in the three industries. The industries are very different. The chemical industry epitomizes the highly competitive private sector and its bottom-line emphasis; the nuclear power industry is unique by the degree to which it is regulated; and the space industry is essentially a government business just beginning to have commercial implications. Institutional differences are extreme; however, from a societal needs, and their safety implications have a far reaching impact on public opinion and support. In reviewing the risk and safety analysis activities, particular attention is given to the use of such quantitative approaches as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as it has evolved in the nuclear power industry

  20. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  1. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  2. Risk analysis of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies in animals: state-of-the-art

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry; de Koeijer, Aline; Hagenaars, Thomas J.

    2008-01-01

    The Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) crisis of the last two decades has shown that proper interaction of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication is essential. Mathematical models and risk assessments have been used as a basis for BSE risk management options and much...... of the legislation regarding the control and eradication of BSE. Much uncertainty regarding important input parameters remains a major constraint in risk assessment. Uncertainty is one of the most critical and most difficult aspects of communication of risks about Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSEs......). Nevertheless, the decline in the BSE epidemic in the UK and most European countries demonstrates that management has been, for the most part, sucessful. Literature pertaining to the three inter-related facets of risk analysis: risk assessment, risk management and risk communication of TSE's of animal origin...

  3. Energy drinks and alcohol-related risk among young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caviness, Celeste M; Anderson, Bradley J; Stein, Michael D

    2017-01-01

    Energy drink consumption, with or without concurrent alcohol use, is common among young adults. This study sought to clarify risk for negative alcohol outcomes related to the timing of energy drink use. The authors interviewed a community sample of 481 young adults, aged 18-25, who drank alcohol in the last month. Past-30-day energy drink use was operationalized as no-use, use without concurrent alcohol, and concurrent use of energy drinks with alcohol ("within a couple of hours"). Negative alcohol outcomes included past-30-day binge drinking, past-30-day alcohol use disorder, and drinking-related consequences. Just over half (50.5%) reported no use of energy drinks,18.3% reported using energy drinks without concurrent alcohol use, and 31.2% reported concurrent use of energy drinks and alcohol. Relative to those who reported concurrent use of energy drinks with alcohol, and controlling for background characteristics and frequency of alcohol consumption, those who didn't use energy drinks and those who used without concurrent alcohol use had significantly lower binge drinking, negative consequences, and rates of alcohol use disorder (P energy drink without concurrent alcohol groups on any alcohol-related measure (P > .10 for all outcomes). Concurrent energy drink and alcohol use is associated with increased risk for negative alcohol consequences in young adults. Clinicians providing care to young adults could consider asking patients about concurrent energy drink and alcohol use as a way to begin a conversation about risky alcohol consumption while addressing 2 substances commonly used by this population.

  4. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  5. Trampoline related injuries in children: risk factors and radiographic findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimek, Peter Michael; Juen, David; Stranzinger, Enno; Wolf, Rainer; Slongo, Theddy

    2013-05-01

    Backyard trampolines are immensely popular among children, but are associated with an increase of trampoline-related injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate radiographs of children with trampoline related injuries and to determine the risk factors. Between 2003 and 2009, 286 children under the age of 16 with backyard trampoline injuries were included in the study. The number of injuries increased from 13 patients in 2003 to 86 in 2009. The median age of the 286 patients was 7 years (range: 1-15 years). Totally 140 (49%) patients were males, and 146 (51%) females. Medical records and all available diagnostic imaging were reviewed. A questionnaire was sent to the parents to evaluate the circumstances of each injury, the type of trampoline, the protection equipment and the experience of the children using the trampoline. The study was approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of the University Hospital of Bern. The questionnaires and radiographs of the 104 patients were available for evaluation. A fracture was sustained in 51 of the 104 patients. More than 75% of all patients sustaining injuries and in 90% of patients with fractures were jumping on the trampoline with other children at the time of the accident. The most common fractures were supracondylar humeral fractures (29%) and forearm fractures (25%). Fractures of the proximal tibia occurred especially in younger children between 2-5 years of age. Children younger than 5 years old are at risk for specific proximal tibia fractures ("Trampoline Fracture"). A child jumping simultaneously with other children has a higher risk of suffering from a fracture.

  6. Sexual HIV Risk Among Male Parolees and Their Female Partners: The Relate Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comfort, Megan; Reznick, Olga Grinstead; Dilworth, Samantha E; Binson, Diane; Darbes, Lynae A; Neilands, Torsten B

    The massively disproportionate impact of America's prison boom on communities of color has raised questions about how incarceration may affect health disparities, including disparities in HIV. Primary partners are an important source of influence on sexual health. In this paper, we investigate sexual HIV risk among male-female couples following a man's release from prison. We draw upon data from the Relate Project, a novel cross-sectional survey of recently released men and their female partners in Oakland and San Francisco, California (N=344). Inferential analyses use the actor-partner model to explore actor and partner effects on sexual HIV risk outcomes. Dyadic analyses of sexual HIV risk among male parolees and their female partners paint a complex portrait of couples affected by incarceration and of partners' influences on each other. Findings indicate that demographic factors such as education level and employment status, individual psycho-social factors such as perception of risk, and relationship factors such as commitment and power affect sexual HIV risk outcomes. The Relate Project provides a novel dataset for the dyadic analysis of sexual risk among male parolees and their female partners, and results highlight the importance of focusing on the couple as a unit when assessing HIV risk and protective behaviors. Results also indicate potentially fruitful avenues for population-specific interventions that may help to reduce sexual health disparities among couples affected by incarceration.

  7. Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

    2007-03-01

    To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

  8. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  9. Job stress and behavioral characteristics in relation to coronary heart disease risk among Japanese police officers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiozaki, Maki; Miyai, Nobuyuki; Morioka, Ikuharu; Utsumi, Miyoko; Hattori, Sonomi; Koike, Hiroaki; Arita, Mikio; Miyashita, Kazuhisa

    2017-08-08

    This study examined the association between job-related behavioral characteristics and the risk of coronary heart diseases (CHD) in Japanese male police officers. Compared to office clerks, police officers exhibited greater age-related increases of the prevalence of CHD risk factors, and a clustering number of CHD risk factors was significantly higher in the group of those over 45 yr of age. Among the police officers, coronary-prone behavior was more frequent than that seen in office clerks. The police officers with coronary-prone behavior tended to engage in shift work and to work overtime more; yet they were less likely to perceive job stress and to express the relevant physical and psychological symptoms than those without coronary-prone behavior. The subjects with such behavioral characteristics had a significantly greater number of CHD risk factors. In a multiple regression analysis, coronary-prone behavior together with age, social support, walking hours per day, and amount of alcohol consumption were selected as significant determinants of a cluster of CHD risk factors. These results suggest that coronary-prone behavior may contribute to the higher prevalence of CHD risk factors in police officers via leading the long working hours and the work-related unfavorable lifestyles, such as alcohol drinking and physical inactivity.

  10. Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

    1982-10-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included

  11. Perceptions of risk from workers in high risk industries with work related musculoskeletal disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, D; Silverstein, B

    2014-01-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) remain a major occupational health problem, despite decades of research, outreach, and intervention. The aim of this study is to promote early identification and prevention of WMSDs by developing education and outreach materials grounded in interview data collected from workers that have recently filed for workers compensation (WC) for WMSDs. We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with WC claimants (n=66) from high risk industries identified through the use of a Prevention Index (PI) in Washington state with WMSDs of the back, shoulder, hand/wrist, or knee. Perceptions regarding the degree of exposure to WMSD risk factors, the social construction of pain, and the potential to implement injury-prevention measures varied widely. Many workers dismissed their injuries as the result of "fluke" or "freak" occurrences and framed their exposure to risk factors for WMSDs as either inevitable or "just part of the job." Workers in high-risk industries for WMSDs described their work conditions in ways that suggested: (1) a lack of awareness of the potential for developing a WMSD, (2) a view of work-related pain as normal, and/or (3) a pattern of self-blame for WMSD onset. A paradigm that either asserts the inevitability of WMSDs or dismisses potential control measures presents both a significant barrier to injury prevention efforts as well as a major opportunity for future occupational health research.

  12. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  13. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  14. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  15. Frequency of Risk-Related News Media Messages in 2016 Coverage of Zika Virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sell, Tara Kirk; Watson, Crystal; Meyer, Diane; Kronk, Marissa; Ravi, Sanjana; Pechta, Laura E; Lubell, Keri M; Rose, Dale A

    2018-01-03

    News media plays a large role in the information the public receives during an infectious disease outbreak, and may influence public knowledge and perceptions of risk. This study analyzed and described the content of U.S. news media coverage of Zika virus and Zika response during 2016. A random selection of 800 Zika-related news stories from 25 print and television news sources was analyzed. The study examined 24 different messages that appeared in news media articles and characterized them using theories of risk perception as messages with characteristics that could increase perception of risk (risk-elevating messages; n = 14), messages that could decrease perception of risk (risk-minimizing messages; n = 8), or messages about travel or testing guidance (n = 2). Overall, 96% of news stories in the study sample contained at least one or more risk-elevating message(s) and 61% contained risk-minimizing message(s). The frequency of many messages changed after local transmission was confirmed in Florida, and differed between sources in locations with or without local transmission in 2016. Forty percent of news stories included messages about negative potential outcomes of Zika virus infection without mentioning ways to reduce risk. Findings from this study may help inform current federal, state, and local Zika responses by offering a detailed analysis of how news media are covering the outbreak and response activities as well as identifying specific messages appearing more or less frequently than intended. Findings identifying the types of messages that require greater emphasis may also assist public health communicators in responding more effectively to future outbreaks. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  17. Risk Management in Supply Chain using Consistent Fuzzy Preference Relations

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad Jafarnejad; Mehran Ebrahimi; Mohammad Ali Abbaszadeh; Seyed Mehdi Abtahi

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, supply chains are exposed to numerous risks. Thus, to success in risky business environment, it is imperative for firms to systematically manage supply chain risks. Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of supply chain risks. The purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive approach to risk management in supply chains. Thus, by an appropriate review of the literature, supply chain risk sources are identified in six areas. Then, a CFPR method is...

  18. Anemia risk in relation to lead exposure in lead-related manufacturing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nan-Hung Hsieh

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Lead-exposed workers may suffer adverse health effects under the currently regulated blood lead (BPb levels. However, a probabilistic assessment about lead exposure-associated anemia risk is lacking. The goal of this study was to examine the association between lead exposure and anemia risk among factory workers in Taiwan. Methods We first collated BPb and indicators of hematopoietic function data via health examination records that included 533 male and 218 female lead-exposed workers between 2012 and 2014. We used benchmark dose (BMD modeling to estimate the critical effect doses for detection of abnormal indicators. A risk-based probabilistic model was used to characterize the potential hazard of lead poisoning for job-specific workers by hazard index (HI. We applied Bayesian decision analysis to determine whether BMD could be implicated as a suitable BPb standard. Results Our results indicated that HI for total lead-exposed workers was 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.50–1.26 with risk occurrence probability of 11.1%. The abnormal risk of anemia indicators for male and female workers could be reduced, respectively, by 67–77% and 86–95% by adopting the suggested BPb standards of 25 and 15 μg/dL. Conclusions We conclude that cumulative exposure to lead in the workplace was significantly associated with anemia risk. This study suggests that current BPb standard needs to be better understood for the application of lead-exposed population protection in different scenarios to provide a novel standard for health management. Low-level lead exposure risk is an occupational and public health problem that should be paid more attention.

  19. The Maritime Declaration of Health (MDH) as a tool to detect maritime traffic-related health risks: analysis of MDH forms submitted to Spanish ports, October 2014 to March 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Gigosos, Rosa M; Segura, Marina; Díez-Díaz, Rosa M; Ureña, Isabel; Urzay, David; Guillot, Patricia; Guerra-Neira, Ana; Rivera, Almudena; Pérez-Cobaleda, Ángeles; Martín, Ascensión; Nuñez-Torrón, María; Alvarez, Begoña; Faraco, Mar; Barrera, José M; Calvo, María J; Gallegos, José; Bermejo, Antonio; Aramburu, Carmen; Dávila, Miguel; Carreras, Fernando; Neipp, Rosemarie; Mariscal, Alberto

    2017-06-15

    The international maritime traffic of people and goods has often contributed to the spread of pathogens affecting public health. The Maritime Declaration of Health (MDH), according to the International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005), is a document containing data related to the state of health on board a ship during passage and on arrival at port. It is a useful tool for early detection of public health risks. The main objective of our study was to evaluate compliance with the model provided in the IHR, focusing on the format and degree of completion of MDH forms received at Spanish ports. We reviewed the content of 802 MDH forms submitted to nine Spanish ports between October 2014 and March 2015. Study results show that 22% of MDH forms presented did not comply with the recommended model and 39% were incomplete. The proportion of cargo ships with correct and complete MDH forms was lower than passenger ships; thus, the nine health questions were answered less frequently by cargo ships than passenger ships (63% vs 90%, p value < 0.001). The appropriate demand and usage of MDH forms by competent authorities should improve the quality of the document as a tool and improve risk assessment. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.

  20. Accident patterns for construction-related workers: a cluster analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chia-Wen; Tyan, Yaw-Yauan

    2012-01-01

    The construction industry has been identified as one of the most hazardous industries. The risk of constructionrelated workers is far greater than that in a manufacturing based industry. However, some steps can be taken to reduce worker risk through effective injury prevention strategies. In this article, k-means clustering methodology is employed in specifying the factors related to different worker types and in identifying the patterns of industrial occupational accidents. Accident reports during the period 1998 to 2008 are extracted from case reports of the Northern Region Inspection Office of the Council of Labor Affairs of Taiwan. The results show that the cluster analysis can indicate some patterns of occupational injuries in the construction industry. Inspection plans should be proposed according to the type of construction-related workers. The findings provide a direction for more effective inspection strategies and injury prevention programs.

  1. Relational Analysis for Delivery of Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis; Bauer, Jörg

    2008-01-01

    substantially improves the precision of the results obtained while being able to deal with the full generality of the syntax of processes. The analysis reveals a feasible complexity for practical examples and gives rise to a fast prototype. We use this prototype to automatically prove the correct delivery......Many techniques exist for statically computing properties of the evolution of processes expressed in process algebras. Static analysis has shown how to obtain useful results that can both be checked and computed in polynomial time. In this paper we develop a static analysis in relational form which...... of messages for the implementation of an accident service, which is based on multiplexed communication, a crucial feature of global computing applications....

  2. Análisis de los riesgos musculoesqueléticos asociados a los trabajos de ferrallas: Buenas prácticas Musculoskeletal risks analysis related to steel reinforcement works: Good practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica López Alonso

    2011-12-01

    temporary or mobile construction sites is not correcting the multiple musculoskeletal risk factors of these workers. It's proposed for the analysis of such risks musculoskeletal, the use of different ergonomic methodologies. In one hand, the load handling guide from the Spanish National Health and Safety Institute, and in the other, the method ERGO/ IBV, developed by the Biomecanics Institute of Valencia for the repetitive tasks analysis. The use of these tools allows the design of new working methods that reduce the risks discussed. Subsequently, after the identification of the large number of risks musculoskeletals, it's defined a set of better practices for these workers, exposed to very demanding work conditions and with low culture of prevention.

  3. Definition of a shortcut methodology for assessing flood-related Na-Tech risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Marzo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of flood-related Na-Tech risk was developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive quantitative risk analysis (QRA. Through the definition of some suitable key hazard indicators (KHIs, the proposed methodology allows the identification of the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation; the analytical hierarchy process (AHP was used as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such qualitative KHIs. The developed methodology was validated through two case studies by comparing the predicted risk levels with the results of much more detailed QRAs previously presented in literature and then applied to the real flood happened at Spolana a.s., Neratovice, Czech Republic in August 2002.

  4. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  5. Risk analysis related to dangerous materials transport and storage in urban areas; L'integration du risque lie au transport et au stockage des produits chimiques dans la planification urbaine: l'apport des outils d'analyse decisionnelle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lombard, J; Hubert, P; Pages, P

    1989-12-01

    Risk management in an urban areas not always an easy task and the selection of appropriate prevention measure is often difficult. Consequences of an accident can be multiple (mortality, destruction, pollution, interruption of supplies, economic losses, traffic difficulties), and preventive measures are difficult to compare. The objective of this report is to present different methods applicable for decision making emphasising the criteria for their intercomparison and their limitations. In any case a more sophisticated analysis is needed for risk management in urban areas. Principals of methods needed for decision making are presented. These methods are based on a single criteria (regular constraint), on a few criteria that can be measured (cost-benefit), or a number of criteria at choice. These rather general methods should be adaptable to be applied for specific domain. For risk management the following adaptation are presented: identifying the limit of maximum individual risk (generalisation of regular constraint); adoption of different values of human life as a function of nature of consequences (generalisation of cost-benefit method), application of risk avoidance factors. These different developments predict versions of tools for decision making which can be applicable to risk management in urban areas. [French] La gestion des risques en milieu urbain n'est pas toujours une tache aisee et la selection du moyen de prevention approprie sera souvent difficile. En effet, les consequences d'un accident peuvent etre multiples (mortalite, morbidite, destruction, pollution, interruption de reseaux, pertes economiques, difficultes de circulation...) et les moyens de prevention envisageables pour limiter l'occurrence d'un accident et/ou les consequences associees seront alors difficiles a comparer. Le recours a une methode d'evaluation permettant de quantifier puis de comparer les merites respectifs de ces differents moyens devient aujourd'hui necessaire afin de

  6. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  7. Disadvantaged children at greater relative risk of thinness (as well as obesity): a secondary data analysis of the England National Child Measurement Programme and the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Anna; Rougeaux, Emeline; Law, Catherine

    2015-08-05

    Young children living in more disadvantaged socio-economic circumstances (SECs) are at an increased risk of overweight and obesity. However, there is scant research examining the prevalence and social distribution of thinness in early childhood, despite potential negative consequences for health and development across the life-course. We examined the social gradient in thinness (and overweight and obesity for comparison) for 2,620,422 four-to-five year olds attending state maintained primary schools from 2007/8 to 2011/12, in the England National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP), and 16,715 children from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), born in 2000-2002, and measured at ages of three, five and seven. Children were classified as being thin, healthy weight (and, for completeness, overweight or obese) using international age and sex adjusted cut-offs for body mass index (BMI). Prevalences (and 95% confidence intervals (CIs)) were estimated, overall, and according to SECs: area deprivation (NCMP, MCS); household income, and maternal social class and education (MCS only). Relative Risk Ratios (RRRs) and CIs for thinness, overweight and obesity were estimated in multinomial models by SECs (baseline healthy weight). In the MCS, standard errors were estimated using clustered sandwich estimators to account for repeated measures, and, for thinness, RRRs by SECs were also estimated adjusting for a range of early life characteristics. In 2007/8 to 2011/12, 5.20% of four-to-five year old girls (n = 66,584) and 5.88% of boys (78,934) in the NCMP were thin. In the MCS, the prevalence of thinness was 4.59% (693) at three, 4.21% (702) at five, and 5.84% (804) at seven years. In both studies, and for all measures of SECs, children from the most disadvantaged groups were more likely to be thin than those from the most advantaged groups. For example, MCS children whose mothers had no educational qualifications were fifty percent more likely to be thin (RRR 1.5 (CI: 1.24, 1

  8. Job-related mortality risks of Hanford workers and their relation to cancer effects of measured doses of external radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kneale, G.W.; Mancuso, T.F.; Stewart, A.M.

    1983-01-01

    If we exclude all persons who were classified as clerical workers we find that over 40% of the Hanford workers had either professional or technical qualifications (professional workers). The ratio of professional to manual workers was equally high for safe and dangerous occupations but during the period 1944-77 professional workers who were doing the most dangerous work had too many deaths by comparison with other persons with similar qualifications, and manual workers doing equally dangerous work had too few deaths by comparison with other manual workers. In practice, this means that in any analysis of dose-related cancer risks of Hanford workers it is essential to control for job-related mortality risks as well as all the usual factors such as sex, dates of birth and hire and duration of employment. The results of including all these factors in a cohort analysis of Hanford data by the method of regression models in life tables are described and also the reasons why it was concluded that the risk per unit dose is increased at low dose levels (i.e. the dose-response curve is curvilinear downwards). (author)

  9. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  10. Feedstock specific environmental risk levels related to biomass extraction for energy from boreal and temperate forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamers, Patrick; Thiffault, Evelyne; Paré, David; Junginger, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Past research on identifying potentially negative impacts of forest management activities has primarily focused on traditional forest operations. The increased use of forest biomass for energy in recent years, spurred predominantly by policy incentives for the reduction of fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, and by efforts from the forestry sector to diversify products and increase value from the forests, has again brought much attention to this issue. The implications of such practices continue to be controversially debated; predominantly the adverse impacts on soil productivity and biodiversity, and the climate change mitigation potential of forest bioenergy. Current decision making processes require comprehensive, differentiated assessments of the known and unknown factors and risk levels of potentially adverse environmental effects. This paper provides such an analysis and differentiates between the feedstock of harvesting residues, roundwood, and salvage wood. It concludes that the risks related to biomass for energy outtake are feedstock specific and vary in terms of scientific certainty. Short-term soil productivity risks are higher for residue removal. There is however little field evidence of negative long-term impacts of biomass removal on productivity in the scale predicted by modeling. Risks regarding an alteration of biodiversity are relatively equally distributed across the feedstocks. The risk of limited or absent short-term carbon benefits is highest for roundwood, but negligible for residues and salvage wood. Salvage operation impacts on soil productivity and biodiversity are a key knowledge gap. Future research should also focus on deriving regionally specific, quantitative thresholds for sustainable biomass removal. -- Highlights: ► Synthesis of the scientific uncertainties regarding biomass for energy outtake. ► With specific focus on soil productivity, biodiversity, and carbon balance. ► Balanced determination of the risk levels

  11. [Analysis of risk factors associated with professional drivers’ work].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czerwińska, Maja; Hołowko, Joanna; Stachowska, Ewa

    Professional driver is an occupation associated with high health risk. The factors which increase the risk of developing lifestyle diseases are closely related to working conditions. The aim of this study was to analyse the risk factors which are associated with professional drivers’ lifestyle. The material consisted of 23 articles from PubMed.gov. Risk factors related to drivers’ work have a signiicant impact on their health.

  12. Polymorphisms in fatty acid metabolism-related genes are associated with colorectal cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoeft, B.; Linseisen, J.; Beckmann, L.

    2010-01-01

    as contributing factor to colon carcinogenesis. We examined the association between genetic variability in 43 fatty acid metabolism-related genes and colorectal risk in 1225 CRC cases and 2032 controls participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Three hundred......Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common malignant tumor and the fourth leading cause of cancer death worldwide. The crucial role of fatty acids for a number of important biological processes suggests a more in-depth analysis of inter-individual differences in fatty acid metabolizing genes...... variants with CRC risk. Our results support the key role of prostanoid signaling in colon carcinogenesis and suggest a relevance of genetic variation in fatty acid metabolism-related genes and CRC risk....

  13. Analysis of risk factors of pulmonary embolism in diabetic patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Changhui; Ma Zhihai; Zhu Lin; Chi Lianxiang

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To study the related risk factors in diabetic patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). Methods: 58 diabetic cases underwent lower limbs 99m Tc-MAA veins imaging (and/or ultrasonography) and pulmonary perfusion imaging. The related laboratory data [fasting blood glucose (FBG), blood cholesterol, blood long chain triglycerides (LCT)] and clinic information [age, disease courses, chest symptoms (chest pain and short of breathe), lower limbs symptoms (swelling, varicose veins and diabetic foot) and acute complication (diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperosmolar non ketotic diabetic coma)] were collected simultaneously. SPSS was used for χ 2 -test and Logistic regression analysis. Results: (1) 28 patients (48.3%) were showed to be with lower limbs deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and by 99m Tc-MAA imaging, 10 cases (17.2%) with PE. The PE ratios (32.1%) of the patients with DVT was more higher than no DVT (3.3%) (χ 2 =6.53, P 2 ≥4.23, P 2 ≤2.76, P>0.05), respectively. (3) Multiplicity analysis indicated: the related risk factors for PE included chest symptoms (Score=13.316, P=0.000) and lower limbs symptoms (Score=7.780, P=0.005). No significant difference to other factors (Score≤2.494, P>0.114), respectively. Conclusion: The serious DM with chest symptoms, lower limbs symptoms and/or DVT must be controlled as early as possible by all kinds of treatment. It will decrease the PE complication. (authors)

  14. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  15. Risk analysis of investments in-farm milk cooling tanks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle D. Sant´Anna

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%. In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a recommendable strategy for a successful modernization of the Brazilian dairy sector’s inbound logistics would be to promote an increase in the volume of the milk produced per farm.

  16. What are the main risk factors for running-related injuries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saragiotto, Bruno Tirotti; Yamato, Tiê Parma; Hespanhol Junior, Luiz Carlos; Rainbow, Michael J; Davis, Irene S; Lopes, Alexandre Dias

    2014-08-01

    not indexed in any of the searched databases. We found a great heterogeneity of statistical methods between studies, which prevented us from performing a meta-analysis. The main risk factor identified in this review was previous injury in the last 12 months, although many risk factors had been investigated in the literature. Relatively few prospective studies were identified in this review, reducing the overall ability to detect risk factors. This highlights the need for more, well designed prospective studies in order to fully appreciate the risk factors associated with running.

  17. Evaluation of hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nankaku, Manabu; Kanzaki, Hideto; Tsuboyama, Tadao; Nakamura, Takashi

    2005-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction, and to elucidate factors that influence the impact force in falls on the hip. Eight healthy volunteers performed deliberate falls in three directions (lateral, posterolateral and posterior) on a force platform covered by a mattress of