WorldWideScience

Sample records for relative extinction risk

  1. The perils of picky eating: dietary breadth is related to extinction risk in insectivorous bats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin G Boyles

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Several recent papers evaluate the relationship between ecological characteristics and extinction risk in bats. These studies report that extinction risk is negatively related to geographic range size and positively related to habitat specialization. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that extinction risk is also related to dietary specialization in insectivorous vespertilionid bats using both traditional and phylogenetically-controlled analysis of variance. We collected dietary data and The World Conservation Union (IUCN rankings for 44 Australian, European, and North American bat species. Our results indicate that species of conservation concern (IUCN ranking near threatened or above are more likely to have a specialized diet than are species of least concern. Additional analyses show that dietary breadth is not correlated to geographic range size or wing morphology, characteristics previously found to correlate with extinction risk. Therefore, there is likely a direct relationship between dietary specialization and extinction risk; however, the large variation in dietary breadth within species of least concern suggests that diet alone cannot explain extinction risk. Our results may have important implications for the development of predictive models of extinction risk and for the assignment of extinction risk to insectivorous bat species. Similar analyses should be conducted on additional bat families to assess the generality of this relationship between niche breadth and extinction risk.

  2. Metapopulation extinction risk: dispersal's duplicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Kevin

    2009-09-01

    Metapopulation extinction risk is the probability that all local populations are simultaneously extinct during a fixed time frame. Dispersal may reduce a metapopulation's extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate. By contrast, dispersal may raise a metapopulation's extinction risk by reducing its average population density. Which effect prevails is controlled by habitat fragmentation. Dispersal in mildly fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate without causing any appreciable drop in its average population density. By contrast, dispersal in severely fragmented habitat raises a metapopulation's extinction risk because the rise in its average per-capita growth rate is more than offset by the decline in its average population density. The metapopulation model used here shows several other interesting phenomena. Dispersal in sufficiently fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk to that of a constant environment. Dispersal between habitat fragments reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk insofar as local environments are asynchronous. Grouped dispersal raises the effective habitat fragmentation level. Dispersal search barriers raise metapopulation extinction risk. Nonuniform dispersal may reduce the effective fraction of suitable habitat fragments below the extinction threshold. Nonuniform dispersal may make demographic stochasticity a more potent metapopulation extinction force than environmental stochasticity.

  3. Biological correlates of extinction risk in bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kate E; Purvis, Andy; Gittleman, John L

    2003-04-01

    We investigated patterns and processes of extinction and threat in bats using a multivariate phylogenetic comparative approach. Of nearly 1,000 species worldwide, 239 are considered threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) and 12 are extinct. Small geographic ranges and low wing aspect ratios are independently found to predict extinction risk in bats, which explains 48% of the total variance in IUCN assessments of threat. The pattern and correlates of extinction risk in the two bat suborders are significantly different. A higher proportion (4%) of megachiropteran species have gone extinct in the last 500 years than microchiropteran bats (0.3%), and a higher proportion is currently at risk of extinction (Megachiroptera: 34%; Microchiroptera: 22%). While correlates of microchiropteran extinction risk are the same as in the order as a whole, megachiropteran extinction is correlated more with reproductive rate and less with wing morphology. Bat extinction risk is not randomly distributed phylogenetically: closely related species have more similar levels of threat than would be expected if extinction risk were random. Given the unbalanced nature of the evolutionary diversification of bats, it is probable that the amount of phylogenetic diversity lost if currently threatened taxa disappear may be greater than in other clades with numerically more threatened species.

  4. The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

    2015-01-01

    There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

  5. Elevational distribution and extinction risk in birds.

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    Rachel L White

    Full Text Available Mountainous regions are hotspots of terrestrial biodiversity. Unlike islands, which have been the focus of extensive research on extinction dynamics, fewer studies have examined mountain ranges even though they face increasing threats from human pressures - notably habitat conversion and climate change. Limits to the taxonomic and geographical extent and resolution of previously available information have precluded an explicit assessment of the relative role of elevational distribution in determining extinction risk. We use a new global species-level avian database to quantify the influence of elevational distribution (range, maximum and midpoint on extinction risk in birds at the global scale. We also tested this relationship within biogeographic realms, higher taxonomic levels, and across phylogenetic contrasts. Potential confounding variables (i.e. phylogenetic, distributional, morphological, life history and niche breadth were also tested and controlled for. We show that the three measures of elevational distribution are strong negative predictors of avian extinction risk, with elevational range comparable and complementary to that of geographical range size. Extinction risk was also found to be positively associated with body weight, development and adult survival, but negatively associated with reproduction and niche breadth. The robust and consistent findings from this study demonstrate the importance of elevational distribution as a key driver of variation in extinction dynamics in birds. Our results also highlight elevational distribution as a missing criterion in current schemes for quantifying extinction risk and setting species conservation priorities in birds. Further research is recommended to test for generality across non-avian taxa, which will require an advance in our knowledge of species' current elevational ranges and increased efforts to digitise and centralise such data.

  6. Extinction risk escalates in the tropics.

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    Jana C Vamosi

    Full Text Available The latitudinal biodiversity gradient remains one of the most widely recognized yet puzzling patterns in nature. Presently, the high level of extinction of tropical species, referred to as the "tropical biodiversity crisis", has the potential to erode this pattern. While the connection between species richness, extinction, and speciation has long intrigued biologists, these interactions have experienced increased poignancy due to their relevancy to where we should concentrate our conservation efforts. Natural extinction is a phenomenon thought to have its own latitudinal gradient, with lower extinction rates in the tropics being reported in beetles, birds, mammals, and bivalves. Processes that have buffered ecosystems from high extinction rates in the past may also buffer ecosystems against disturbance of anthropogenic origin. While potential parallels between historical and present-day extinction patterns have been acknowledged, they remain only superficially explored and plant extinction patterns have been particularly neglected. Studies on the disappearances of animal species have reached conflicting conclusions, with the rate of extinction appearing either higher or lower in species richness hotspots. Our global study of extinction risk in vascular plants finds disproportionately higher extinction risk in tropical countries, even when indicators of human pressure (GDP, population density, forest cover change are taken into account. Our results are at odds with the notion that the tropics represent a museum of plant biodiversity (places of historically lowered extinction and we discuss mechanisms that may reconcile this apparent contradiction.

  7. Extinction risk escalates in the tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vamosi, Jana C; Vamosi, Steven M

    2008-01-01

    The latitudinal biodiversity gradient remains one of the most widely recognized yet puzzling patterns in nature. Presently, the high level of extinction of tropical species, referred to as the "tropical biodiversity crisis", has the potential to erode this pattern. While the connection between species richness, extinction, and speciation has long intrigued biologists, these interactions have experienced increased poignancy due to their relevancy to where we should concentrate our conservation efforts. Natural extinction is a phenomenon thought to have its own latitudinal gradient, with lower extinction rates in the tropics being reported in beetles, birds, mammals, and bivalves. Processes that have buffered ecosystems from high extinction rates in the past may also buffer ecosystems against disturbance of anthropogenic origin. While potential parallels between historical and present-day extinction patterns have been acknowledged, they remain only superficially explored and plant extinction patterns have been particularly neglected. Studies on the disappearances of animal species have reached conflicting conclusions, with the rate of extinction appearing either higher or lower in species richness hotspots. Our global study of extinction risk in vascular plants finds disproportionately higher extinction risk in tropical countries, even when indicators of human pressure (GDP, population density, forest cover change) are taken into account. Our results are at odds with the notion that the tropics represent a museum of plant biodiversity (places of historically lowered extinction) and we discuss mechanisms that may reconcile this apparent contradiction.

  8. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  9. Linking indices for biodiversity monitoring to extinction risk theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

    2014-12-01

    Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. © 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

  10. The three-quarter power scaling of extinction risk in Late Pleistocene mammals, and a new theory of the size selectivity of extinction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polishchuk, L.

    2010-01-01

    Questions: What is the pattern of body mass versus extinction risk in the Late Pleistocene extinctions of mammals, both qualitatively and quantitatively? Are there patterns that relate extinction risk to the well-known allometries of body mass with population density or population growth rate?

  11. Extinction risk under coloured environmental noise

    OpenAIRE

    Heino, M; Ripa, Jörgen; Kaitala, V

    2000-01-01

    Positively autocorrelated red environmental noise is characterized by a strong dependence of expected sample variance on sample length. This dependence has to be taken into account when assessing extinction risk under red and white uncorrelated environmental noise. To facilitate a comparison between red and white noise, their expected variances can be scaled to be equal, but only at a chosen time scale. We show with a simple one-dimensional population dynamics model that the different but equ...

  12. Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei, Fangliang

    2012-05-01

    Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

  13. Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans.

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    Finnegan, Seth; Anderson, Sean C; Harnik, Paul G; Simpson, Carl; Tittensor, Derek P; Byrnes, Jarrett E; Finkel, Zoe V; Lindberg, David R; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Lockwood, Rowan; Lotze, Heike K; McClain, Craig R; McGuire, Jenny L; O'Dea, Aaron; Pandolfi, John M

    2015-05-01

    Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  14. Status of Baltic grey seals: Population assessment and extinction risk

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    Karin C Harding

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The grey seal (Halichoerus grypus population in the Baltic Sea is recovering after a century of bounty hunting and 3 decades of low fertility rates caused by environmental pollution. A conservative estimate of the population size in 2003 was 19,400 animals, and available data suggest an annual rate of increase of 7.5% since 1990. The growing population has led to increased interactions with the fishery, and demands are being raised for the re-introduction of the hunt. We provide a demographic analysis and a risk assessment of the population, and make recommendations on how to decrease the risk of over exploitation. Although hunting increases the risk of quasi-extinction, the risk can be significantly reduced by the choice of a cautious hunting regime. The least hazardous regimes allow no hunting below a ‘security level’ in population size. Obviously, to implement such a hunting regime detailed knowledge of the population size and growth rate is required. It is not possible to estimate “true” risks for quasi-extinction, but we used an approach where the relative difference for different scenarios can be compared. With a security level at 5,000 females, the population quasi-extinction risk increases 50 fold at an annual hunt of 500 females compared with a scenario with no hunting. The risk of quasi-extinction is very sensitive to declines in the mean growth rate and to increased variance in growth rate. The variance in the population estimates over the last 14 years imply that it would take 9 years to detect a declinefrom 1.075 to 1.027 in the rate of population increase. We also show how the age composition of killed animals influences the impact of the hunt. The overall recommendation is that hunting should be kept to a minimum, carefully documented and accompanied by close population monitoring.

  15. Variation in extinction risk among birds: chance or evolutionary predisposition?

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    Bennett, P. M.; Owens, I. P. F.

    1997-01-01

    Collar et al. (1994) estimate that of the 9,672 extant species of bird, 1,111 are threatened by extinction. Here, we test whether these threatened species are simply a random sample of birds, or whether there is something about their biology that predisposes them to extinction. We ask three specific questions. First, is extinction risk randomly distributed among families? Second, which families, if any, contain more, or less, threatened species than would be expected by chance? Third, is variation between taxa in extinction risk associated with variation in either body size or fecundity? Extinction risk is not randomly distributed among families. The families which contain significantly more threatened species than expected are the parrots (Psittacidae), pheasants and allies (Phasianidae), albatrosses and allies (Procellariidae), rails (Rallidae), cranes (Gruidae), cracids (Cracidae), megapodes (Megapodidae) and pigeons (Columbidae). The only family which contains significantly fewer threatened species than expected is the woodpeckers (Picidae). Extinction risk is also not distributed randomly with respect to fecundity or body size. Once phylogeny has been controlled for, increases in extinction risk are independently associated with increases in body size and decreases in fecundity. We suggest that this is because low rates of fecundity, which evolved many tens of millions of years ago, predisposed certain lineages to extinction. Low-fecundity populations take longer to recover if they are reduced to small sizes and are, therefore, more likely to go extinct if an external force causes an increase in the rate of mortality, thereby perturbing the natural balance between fecundity and mortality.

  16. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

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    Ana D Davidson

    Full Text Available Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial

  17. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Ana D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C; Brooks, Thomas M; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H

    2017-01-01

    Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the

  18. DEVELOPMENT OF AQUATIC MODELS FOR TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GENETIC DIVERSITY AND POPULATION EXTINCTION RISK

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    The relationship between population adaptive potential and extinction risk in a changing environment is not well understood. Although the expectation is that genetic diversity is directly related to the capacity of populations to adapt, the statistical and predictive aspects of ...

  19. Trends in extinction risk for imperiled species in Canada.

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    Brett Favaro

    Full Text Available Protecting and promoting recovery of species at risk of extinction is a critical component of biodiversity conservation. In Canada, the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC determines whether species are at risk of extinction or extirpation, and has conducted these assessments since 1977. We examined trends in COSEWIC assessments to identify whether at-risk species that have been assessed more than once tended to improve, remain constant, or deteriorate in status, as a way of assessing the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation in Canada. Of 369 species that met our criteria for examination, 115 deteriorated, 202 remained unchanged, and 52 improved in status. Only 20 species (5.4% improved to the point where they were 'not at risk', and five of those were due to increased sampling efforts rather than an increase in population size. Species outcomes were also dependent on the severity of their initial assessment; for example, 47% of species that were initially listed as special concern deteriorated between assessments. After receiving an at-risk assessment by COSEWIC, a species is considered for listing under the federal Species at Risk Act (SARA, which is the primary national tool that mandates protection for at-risk species. We examined whether SARA-listing was associated with improved COSEWIC assessment outcomes relative to unlisted species. Of 305 species that had multiple assessments and were SARA-listed, 221 were listed at a level that required identification and protection of critical habitat; however, critical habitat was fully identified for only 56 of these species. We suggest that the Canadian government should formally identify and protect critical habitat, as is required by existing legislation. In addition, our finding that at-risk species in Canada rarely recover leads us to recommend that every effort be made to actively prevent species from becoming at-risk in the first place.

  20. Extinction risk is most acute for the world's largest and smallest vertebrates.

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    Ripple, William J; Wolf, Christopher; Newsome, Thomas M; Hoffmann, Michael; Wirsing, Aaron J; McCauley, Douglas J

    2017-10-03

    Extinction risk in vertebrates has been linked to large body size, but this putative relationship has only been explored for select taxa, with variable results. Using a newly assembled and taxonomically expansive database, we analyzed the relationships between extinction risk and body mass (27,647 species) and between extinction risk and range size (21,294 species) for vertebrates across six main classes. We found that the probability of being threatened was positively and significantly related to body mass for birds, cartilaginous fishes, and mammals. Bimodal relationships were evident for amphibians, reptiles, and bony fishes. Most importantly, a bimodal relationship was found across all vertebrates such that extinction risk changes around a body mass breakpoint of 0.035 kg, indicating that the lightest and heaviest vertebrates have elevated extinction risk. We also found range size to be an important predictor of the probability of being threatened, with strong negative relationships across nearly all taxa. A review of the drivers of extinction risk revealed that the heaviest vertebrates are most threatened by direct killing by humans. By contrast, the lightest vertebrates are most threatened by habitat loss and modification stemming especially from pollution, agricultural cropping, and logging. Our results offer insight into halting the ongoing wave of vertebrate extinctions by revealing the vulnerability of large and small taxa, and identifying size-specific threats. Moreover, they indicate that, without intervention, anthropogenic activities will soon precipitate a double truncation of the size distribution of the world's vertebrates, fundamentally reordering the structure of life on our planet.

  1. Linking Indices for Biodiversity Monitoring to Extinction Risk Theory

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    Mccarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

    2014-01-01

    Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. Conectando Índices para el Monitoreo de la Biodiversidad con la Teoría de Riesgo de Extinción Resumen Los índices de biodiversidad combinan frecuentemente los datos de diferentes especies cuando se usan en los programas de monitoreo. Las propiedades heurísticas pueden sugerir índices preferidos, pero carecemos de medios objetivos para discriminar a los índices con propiedades heurísticas similares. Los índices de biodiversidad pueden evaluarse al determinar qué tan bien reflejan los objetivos de manejo que un programa de monitoreo busca apoyar. Por ejemplo, la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica requiere reportar las tasas de extinción, así que los

  2. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    OpenAIRE

    Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Bielby, Jon; Schmidtlein, Sebastian; Bosch, Jaime; Garner, Trenton W. J.; Veith, Michael; Walker, Susan; Fisher, Matthew C.; Lötters, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history varia...

  3. The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Steven W; Polidoro, Beth A; Hamel, Jean-François; Gamboa, Ruth U; Mercier, Annie

    2014-04-22

    Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primarily driven by high market value, compounded by accessibility and familiarity (well known) in the marketplace. Extinction risk in marine animals often relates closely to body size and small geographical range but our study shows a clear exception. Conservation must not lose sight of common species, especially those of high value. Greater human population density and poorer economies in the geographical ranges of endangered species illustrate that anthropogenic variables can also predict extinction risks in marine animals. Local-level regulatory measures must prevent opportunistic exploitation of high-value species. Trade agreements, for example CITES, may aid conservation but will depend on international technical support to low-income tropical countries. The high proportion of data deficient species also stresses a need for research on the ecology and population demographics of unglamorous invertebrates.

  4. Protection of Marine Fish Stocks at Risk of Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.A. Musick; S.A. Berkeley; G.M. Cailliet; M. Camhi; G. Huntsman; M. Nammack; Melvin L. Warren

    2000-01-01

    The American Fisheries Society (AFS) recommends that registory agencies closely scrutinize both marine fish and invertebrate stocks that may be at risk of extinction and take remedial action before populations are threatened or endungered. Initial AFS analyses of marine stocks at risk in North America show at least four primary geographic "hot spots" with...

  5. Quantification of habitat fragmentation reveals extinction risk in terrestrial mammals

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    Crooks, Kevin R.; Burdett, Christopher L.; Theobald, David M.; King, Sarah R. B.; Rondinini, Carlo; Boitani, Luigi

    2017-01-01

    Although habitat fragmentation is often assumed to be a primary driver of extinction, global patterns of fragmentation and its relationship to extinction risk have not been consistently quantified for any major animal taxon. We developed high-resolution habitat fragmentation models and used phylogenetic comparative methods to quantify the effects of habitat fragmentation on the world’s terrestrial mammals, including 4,018 species across 26 taxonomic Orders. Results demonstrate that species with more fragmentation are at greater risk of extinction, even after accounting for the effects of key macroecological predictors, such as body size and geographic range size. Species with higher fragmentation had smaller ranges and a lower proportion of high-suitability habitat within their range, and most high-suitability habitat occurred outside of protected areas, further elevating extinction risk. Our models provide a quantitative evaluation of extinction risk assessments for species, allow for identification of emerging threats in species not classified as threatened, and provide maps of global hotspots of fragmentation for the world’s terrestrial mammals. Quantification of habitat fragmentation will help guide threat assessment and strategic priorities for global mammal conservation. PMID:28673992

  6. Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

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    Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

    2014-11-04

    Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

  7. Phylogenetic patterns of extinction risk in the eastern arc ecosystems, an African biodiversity hotspot.

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    Yessoufou, Kowiyou; Daru, Barnabas H; Davies, T Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    There is an urgent need to reduce drastically the rate at which biodiversity is declining worldwide. Phylogenetic methods are increasingly being recognised as providing a useful framework for predicting future losses, and guiding efforts for pre-emptive conservation actions. In this study, we used a reconstructed phylogenetic tree of angiosperm species of the Eastern Arc Mountains - an important African biodiversity hotspot - and described the distribution of extinction risk across taxonomic ranks and phylogeny. We provide evidence for both taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity in extinction risk. However, we found that selectivity varies with IUCN extinction risk category. Vulnerable species are more closely related than expected by chance, whereas endangered and critically endangered species are not significantly clustered on the phylogeny. We suggest that the general observation for taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity (i.e. phylogenetic signal, the tendency of closely related species to share similar traits) in extinction risks is therefore largely driven by vulnerable species, and not necessarily the most highly threatened. We also used information on altitudinal distribution and climate to generate a predictive model of at-risk species richness, and found that greater threatened species richness is found at higher altitude, allowing for more informed conservation decision making. Our results indicate that evolutionary history can help predict plant susceptibility to extinction threats in the hyper-diverse but woefully-understudied Eastern Arc Mountains, and illustrate the contribution of phylogenetic approaches in conserving African floristic biodiversity where detailed ecological and evolutionary data are often lacking.

  8. Phylogenetic patterns of extinction risk in the eastern arc ecosystems, an African biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kowiyou Yessoufou

    Full Text Available There is an urgent need to reduce drastically the rate at which biodiversity is declining worldwide. Phylogenetic methods are increasingly being recognised as providing a useful framework for predicting future losses, and guiding efforts for pre-emptive conservation actions. In this study, we used a reconstructed phylogenetic tree of angiosperm species of the Eastern Arc Mountains - an important African biodiversity hotspot - and described the distribution of extinction risk across taxonomic ranks and phylogeny. We provide evidence for both taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity in extinction risk. However, we found that selectivity varies with IUCN extinction risk category. Vulnerable species are more closely related than expected by chance, whereas endangered and critically endangered species are not significantly clustered on the phylogeny. We suggest that the general observation for taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity (i.e. phylogenetic signal, the tendency of closely related species to share similar traits in extinction risks is therefore largely driven by vulnerable species, and not necessarily the most highly threatened. We also used information on altitudinal distribution and climate to generate a predictive model of at-risk species richness, and found that greater threatened species richness is found at higher altitude, allowing for more informed conservation decision making. Our results indicate that evolutionary history can help predict plant susceptibility to extinction threats in the hyper-diverse but woefully-understudied Eastern Arc Mountains, and illustrate the contribution of phylogenetic approaches in conserving African floristic biodiversity where detailed ecological and evolutionary data are often lacking.

  9. Extinction risks and the conservation of Madagascar's reptiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard K B Jenkins

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: An understanding of the conservation status of Madagascar's endemic reptile species is needed to underpin conservation planning and priority setting in this global biodiversity hotspot, and to complement existing information on the island's mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Species range maps from The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were analysed to determine patterns in the distribution of threatened reptile species. These data, in addition to information on threats, were used to identify priority areas and actions for conservation. Thirty-nine percent of the data-sufficient Malagasy reptiles in our analyses are threatened with extinction. Areas in the north, west and south-east were identified as having more threatened species than expected and are therefore conservation priorities. Habitat degradation caused by wood harvesting and non-timber crops was the most pervasive threat. The direct removal of reptiles for international trade and human consumption threatened relatively few species, but were the primary threats for tortoises. Nine threatened reptile species are endemic to recently created protected areas. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: With a few alarming exceptions, the threatened endemic reptiles of Madagascar occur within the national network of protected areas, including some taxa that are only found in new protected areas. Threats to these species, however, operate inside and outside protected area boundaries. This analysis has identified priority sites for reptile conservation and completes the conservation assessment of terrestrial vertebrates in Madagascar which will facilitate conservation planning, monitoring and wise-decision making. In sharp contrast with the amphibians, there is significant reptile diversity and regional endemism in

  10. Extinction Risks and the Conservation of Madagascar's Reptiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Richard K. B.; Tognelli, Marcelo F.; Bowles, Philip; Cox, Neil; Brown, Jason L.; Chan, Lauren; Andreone, Franco; Andriamazava, Alain; Andriantsimanarilafy, Raphali R.; Anjeriniaina, Mirana; Bora, Parfait; Brady, Lee D.; Hantalalaina, Elisoa F.; Glaw, Frank; Griffiths, Richard A.; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Katariya, Vineet; Rabibisoa, Nirhy H.; Rafanomezantsoa, Jeannot; Rakotomalala, Domoina; Rakotondravony, Hery; Rakotondrazafy, Ny A.; Ralambonirainy, Johans; Ramanamanjato, Jean-Baptiste; Randriamahazo, Herilala; Randrianantoandro, J. Christian; Randrianasolo, Harison H.; Randrianirina, Jasmin E.; Randrianizahana, Hiarinirina; Raselimanana, Achille P.; Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa; Ratsoavina, Fanomezana M.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Robsomanitrandrasana, Eric; Rollande, Finoana; van Dijk, Peter P.; Yoder, Anne D.; Vences, Miguel

    2014-01-01

    Background An understanding of the conservation status of Madagascar's endemic reptile species is needed to underpin conservation planning and priority setting in this global biodiversity hotspot, and to complement existing information on the island's mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises. Methodology/Principal Findings Species range maps from The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were analysed to determine patterns in the distribution of threatened reptile species. These data, in addition to information on threats, were used to identify priority areas and actions for conservation. Thirty-nine percent of the data-sufficient Malagasy reptiles in our analyses are threatened with extinction. Areas in the north, west and south-east were identified as having more threatened species than expected and are therefore conservation priorities. Habitat degradation caused by wood harvesting and non-timber crops was the most pervasive threat. The direct removal of reptiles for international trade and human consumption threatened relatively few species, but were the primary threats for tortoises. Nine threatened reptile species are endemic to recently created protected areas. Conclusions/Significance With a few alarming exceptions, the threatened endemic reptiles of Madagascar occur within the national network of protected areas, including some taxa that are only found in new protected areas. Threats to these species, however, operate inside and outside protected area boundaries. This analysis has identified priority sites for reptile conservation and completes the conservation assessment of terrestrial vertebrates in Madagascar which will facilitate conservation planning, monitoring and wise-decision making. In sharp contrast with the amphibians, there is significant reptile diversity and regional endemism in the southern and

  11. Extinction risks and the conservation of Madagascar's reptiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Richard K B; Tognelli, Marcelo F; Bowles, Philip; Cox, Neil; Brown, Jason L; Chan, Lauren; Andreone, Franco; Andriamazava, Alain; Andriantsimanarilafy, Raphali R; Anjeriniaina, Mirana; Bora, Parfait; Brady, Lee D; Hantalalaina, Elisoa F; Glaw, Frank; Griffiths, Richard A; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Katariya, Vineet; Rabibisoa, Nirhy H; Rafanomezantsoa, Jeannot; Rakotomalala, Domoina; Rakotondravony, Hery; Rakotondrazafy, Ny A; Ralambonirainy, Johans; Ramanamanjato, Jean-Baptiste; Randriamahazo, Herilala; Randrianantoandro, J Christian; Randrianasolo, Harison H; Randrianirina, Jasmin E; Randrianizahana, Hiarinirina; Raselimanana, Achille P; Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa; Ratsoavina, Fanomezana M; Raxworthy, Christopher J; Robsomanitrandrasana, Eric; Rollande, Finoana; van Dijk, Peter P; Yoder, Anne D; Vences, Miguel

    2014-01-01

    An understanding of the conservation status of Madagascar's endemic reptile species is needed to underpin conservation planning and priority setting in this global biodiversity hotspot, and to complement existing information on the island's mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises. Species range maps from The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were analysed to determine patterns in the distribution of threatened reptile species. These data, in addition to information on threats, were used to identify priority areas and actions for conservation. Thirty-nine percent of the data-sufficient Malagasy reptiles in our analyses are threatened with extinction. Areas in the north, west and south-east were identified as having more threatened species than expected and are therefore conservation priorities. Habitat degradation caused by wood harvesting and non-timber crops was the most pervasive threat. The direct removal of reptiles for international trade and human consumption threatened relatively few species, but were the primary threats for tortoises. Nine threatened reptile species are endemic to recently created protected areas. With a few alarming exceptions, the threatened endemic reptiles of Madagascar occur within the national network of protected areas, including some taxa that are only found in new protected areas. Threats to these species, however, operate inside and outside protected area boundaries. This analysis has identified priority sites for reptile conservation and completes the conservation assessment of terrestrial vertebrates in Madagascar which will facilitate conservation planning, monitoring and wise-decision making. In sharp contrast with the amphibians, there is significant reptile diversity and regional endemism in the southern and western regions of Madagascar and this study highlights the importance of

  12. The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood

    OpenAIRE

    Purcell, Steven W.; Polidoro, Beth A.; Hamel, Jean-François; Gamboa, Ruth U.; Mercier, Annie

    2014-01-01

    Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primari...

  13. Rethinking Trade-Driven Extinction Risk in Marine and Terrestrial Megafauna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClenachan, Loren; Cooper, Andrew B; Dulvy, Nicholas K

    2016-06-20

    Large animals hunted for the high value of their parts (e.g., elephant ivory and shark fins) are at risk of extinction due to both intensive international trade pressure and intrinsic biological sensitivity. However, the relative role of trade, particularly in non-perishable products, and biological factors in driving extinction risk is not well understood [1-4]. Here we identify a taxonomically diverse group of >100 marine and terrestrial megafauna targeted for international luxury markets; estimate their value across three points of sale; test relationships among extinction risk, high value, and body size; and quantify the effects of two mitigating factors: poaching fines and geographic range size. We find that body size is the principal driver of risk for lower value species, but that this biological pattern is eliminated above a value threshold, meaning that the most valuable species face a high extinction risk regardless of size. For example, once mean product values exceed US$12,557 kg(-1), body size no longer drives risk. Total value scales with size for marine animals more strongly than for terrestrial animals, incentivizing the hunting of large marine individuals and species. Poaching fines currently have little effect on extinction risk; fines would need to be increased 10- to 100-fold to be effective. Large geographic ranges reduce risk for terrestrial, but not marine, species, whose ranges are ten times greater. Our results underscore both the evolutionary and ecosystem consequences of targeting large marine animals and the need to geographically scale up and prioritize conservation of high-value marine species to avoid extinction. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew C. Fisher

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history variables with the pathogen's predicted distribution. We apply our rule set to the known global diversity of amphibians in order to prioritize pecies that are most at risk of loss from disease emergence. This risk assessment shows where limited conservation funds are best deployed in order to prevent further loss of species by enabling ex situ amphibian salvage operations and focusing any potential disease mitigation projects.

  15. Extinction Risk in Successional Landscapes Subject to Catastrophic Disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Boughton

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available We explore the thesis that stochasticity in successional-disturbance systems can be an agent of species extinction. The analysis uses a simple model of patch dynamics for seral stages in an idealized landscape; each seral stage is assumed to support a specialist biota. The landscape as a whole is characterized by a mean patch birth rate, mean patch size, and mean lifetime for each patch type. Stochasticity takes three forms: (1 patch stochasticity is randomness in the birth times and sizes of individual patches, (2 landscape stochasticity is variation in the annual means of birth rate and size, and (3 turnover mode is whether a patch is eliminated by disturbance or by successional change. Analytical and numerical analyses of the model suggest that landscape stochasticity is the most important agent. Landscape stochasticity increases the extinction risk to species by increasing the risk that the habitat will fluctuate to zero, by reducing the mean abundance of species, and by increasing the variance in species abundance. The highest risk was found to occur in species that inhabit patches with short lifetimes. The results of this general model suggest an important mechanism by which climate change threatens biodiversity: an increase in the frequency of extreme climate events will probably cause pulses of disturbance during some time periods; these in turn would cause wider fluctuations in annual disturbance rates and thus increase the overall level of landscape stochasticity. However, the model also suggests that humans can manipulate landscape stochasticity to reduce risk. In particular, if managed disturbances were more evenly distributed in time, attrition of the regional biota might be prevented. Other work on the connection between patch dynamics and extinction risk assumes the absence of landscape stochasticity and thus overlooks an important component of risk to biodiversity.

  16. Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Lea-Anne; Frank, Norbert; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wienberg, Claudia; Robinson, Laura; van de Flierdt, Tina; Dahl, Mikael; Douarin, Mélanie; Morrison, Cheryl L.; López Correa, Matthias; Rogers, Alex D.; Ruckelshausen, Mario; Roberts, J. Murray

    2014-06-01

    General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth's largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium-thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

  17. Timing of extinction relative to acquisition: A parametric analysis of fear extinction in humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norrholm, S.D.; Vervliet, B.; Jovanovic, T.; Boshoven, W.; Myers, K.M.; Davis, M.; Rothbaum, B.O.; Duncan, E.J.

    2008-01-01

    Fear extinction is a reduction in conditioned fear following repeated exposure to the feared cue in the absence of any aversive event. Extinguished fear often reappears after extinction through spontaneous recovery. Animal studies suggest that spontaneous recovery can be abolished if extinction

  18. Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

    2011-01-01

    The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of environmental variables to change. Here, we predict that the extinction risk of a shorebird population increases with the colour of a key environmental variable: winter temperature. However, the effect is weak compared with the impact of changes in the mean and interannual variability of temperature. Extinction risk was largely insensitive to noise colour, because demographic rates are poor in tracking the colour of the environment. We show that three mechanisms—which probably act in many species—can cause poor environmental tracking: (i) demographic rates that depend nonlinearly on environmental variables filter the noise colour, (ii) demographic rates typically depend on several environmental signals that do not change colour synchronously, and (iii) demographic stochasticity whitens the colour of demographic rates at low population size. We argue that the common practice of assuming perfect environmental tracking may result in overemphasizing the importance of noise colour for extinction risk. Consequently, ignoring environmental autocorrelation in population viability analysis could be less problematic than generally thought. PMID:21561978

  19. Extinction risk and conservation of the world's sharks and rays

    OpenAIRE

    Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Fowler, Sarah L.; Musick, John A.; Cavanagh, Rachel D.; Kyne, Peter M.; Harrison, Lucy R.; Carlson, John K.; Davidson, Lindsay N. K.; Fordham, Sonja V.; Francis, Malcolm P.; Pollock, Caroline M.; Simpfendorfer, Colin A.; Burgess, George H.; Carpenter, Kent E.; Compagno, Leonard J. V.

    2013-01-01

    eLife digest Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from overfishing, climate change, habitat destruction and pollution. These pressures have led to documented declines of some fishes in some places, such as those living in coral reefs and on the high seas. However, it is not clear whether these population declines are isolated one-off examples or, instead, if they are sufficiently widespread to risk the extinction of large numbers of species. Most fishes have a skeleton that is made of bone, bu...

  20. Reducing the extinction risk of stochastic populations via nondemographic noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Be'er, Shay; Assaf, Michael

    2018-02-01

    We consider nondemographic noise in the form of uncertainty in the reaction step size and reveal a dramatic effect this noise may have on the stability of self-regulating populations. Employing the reaction scheme m A →k A but allowing, e.g., the product number k to be a priori unknown and sampled from a given distribution, we show that such nondemographic noise can greatly reduce the population's extinction risk compared to the fixed k case. Our analysis is tested against numerical simulations, and by using empirical data of different species, we argue that certain distributions may be more evolutionary beneficial than others.

  1. Body Size, Extinction Risk and Knowledge Bias in New World Snakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela, Bruno; Villalobos, Fabricio; Rodríguez, Miguel Ángel; Terribile, Levi Carina

    2014-01-01

    Extinction risk and body size have been found to be related in various vertebrate groups, with larger species being more at risk than smaller ones. We checked whether this was also the case for snakes by investigating extinction risk–body size relationships in the New World's Colubroidea species. We used the IUCN Red List risk categories to assign each species to one of two broad levels of threat (Threatened and Non-Threatened) or to identify it as either Data Deficient or Not-Evaluated by the IUCN. We also included the year of description of each species in our analysis as this could affect the level of threat assigned to it (earlier described species had more time to gather information about them, which might have facilitated their evaluation). Also, species detectability could be a function of body size, with larger species tending to be described earlier, which could have an impact in extinction risk–body size relationships. We found a negative relationship between body size and description year, with large-bodied species being described earlier. Description year also varied among risk categories, with Non-Threatened species being described earlier than Threatened species and both species groups earlier than Data Deficient species. On average, Data Deficient species also presented smaller body sizes, while no size differences were detected between Threatened and Non-Threatened species. So it seems that smaller body sizes are related with species detectability, thus potentially affecting both when a species is described (smaller species tend to be described more recently) as well as the amount of information gathered about it (Data Deficient species tend to be smaller). Our data also indicated that if Data Deficient species were to be categorized as Threatened in the future, snake body size and extinction risk would be negatively related, contrasting with the opposite pattern commonly observed in other vertebrate groups. PMID:25409293

  2. Diversity, extinction risk and conservation of Malaysian fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, V C; Lee, P K Y; Lau, C M

    2010-06-01

    A total of 1951 species of freshwater and marine fishes belonging to 704 genera and 186 families are recorded in Malaysia. Almost half (48%) are currently threatened to some degree, while nearly one third (27%) mostly from the marine and coral habitats require urgent scientific studies to evaluate their status. Freshwater habitats encompass the highest percentage of threatened fish species (87%) followed by estuarine habitats (66%). Of the 32 species of highly threatened (HT) species, 16 are freshwater and 16 are largely marine-euryhaline species. Fish extinctions in Malaysia are confined to two freshwater species, but both freshwater and marine species are being increasingly threatened by largely habitat loss or modification (76%), overfishing (27%) and by-catch (23%). The most important threat to freshwater fishes is habitat modification and overfishing, while 35 species are threatened due to their endemism. Brackish-water, euryhaline and marine fishes are threatened mainly by overfishing, by-catch and habitat modification. Sedimentation (pollution) additionally threatens coral-reef fishes. The study provides recommendations to governments, fish managers, scientists and stakeholders to address the increasing and unabated extinction risks faced by the Malaysian fish fauna.

  3. Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

    2008-08-01

    We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

  4. Red coral extinction risk enhanced by ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerrano, Carlo; Cardini, Ulisse; Bianchelli, Silvia; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Pusceddu, Antonio; Danovaro, Roberto

    2013-01-01

    The red coral Corallium rubrum is a habitat-forming species with a prominent and structural role in mesophotic habitats, which sustains biodiversity hotspots. This precious coral is threatened by both over-exploitation and temperature driven mass mortality events. We report here that biocalcification, growth rates and polyps' (feeding) activity of Corallium rubrum are significantly reduced at pCO2 scenarios predicted for the end of this century (0.2 pH decrease). Since C. rubrum is a long-living species (>200 years), our results suggest that ocean acidification predicted for 2100 will significantly increases the risk of extinction of present populations. Given the functional role of these corals in the mesophotic zone, we predict that ocean acidification might have cascading effects on the functioning of these habitats worldwide.

  5. Evaluation of Two Approaches to Defining Extinction Risk under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Grant G; Maguire, Lynn A; Regan, Tracey J

    2018-05-01

    The predominant definition of extinction risk in conservation biology involves evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of extinction time at a particular point (the "time horizon"). Using the principles of decision theory, this article develops an alternative definition of extinction risk as the expected loss (EL) to society resulting from eventual extinction of a species. Distinct roles are identified for time preference and risk aversion. Ranges of tentative values for the parameters of the two approaches are proposed, and the performances of the two approaches are compared and contrasted for a small set of real-world species with published extinction time distributions and a large set of hypothetical extinction time distributions. Potential issues with each approach are evaluated, and the EL approach is recommended as the better of the two. The CDF approach suffers from the fact that extinctions that occur at any time before the specified time horizon are weighted equally, while extinctions that occur beyond the specified time horizon receive no weight at all. It also suffers from the fact that the time horizon does not correspond to any natural phenomenon, and so is impossible to specify nonarbitrarily; yet the results can depend critically on the specified value. In contrast, the EL approach has the advantage of weighting extinction time continuously, with no artificial time horizon, and the parameters of the approach (the rates of time preference and risk aversion) do correspond to natural phenomena, and so can be specified nonarbitrarily. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. The risk of extinction - the mutational meltdown or the overpopulation

    OpenAIRE

    Malarz, K.

    2006-01-01

    The phase diagrams survival-extinction for the Penna model with parameters: (mutations rate)-(birth rate), (mutation rate)-(harmful mutations threshold), (harmful mutation threshold)-(minimal reproduction age) are presented. The extinction phase may be caused by either mutational meltdown or overpopulation. When the Verhulst factor is responsible for removing only newly born babies and does not act on adults the overpopulation is avoided and only genetic factors may lead to species extinction.

  7. The risk of extinction - the mutational meltdown or the overpopulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malarz, Krzysztof

    2007-04-01

    The phase diagrams survival-extinction for the Penna model with parameters: (mutations rate)-(birth rate), (mutation rate)-(harmful mutations threshold), (harmful mutation threshold)-(minimal reproduction age) are presented. The extinction phase may be caused by either mutational meltdown or overpopulation. When the Verhulst factor is responsible for removing only newly born babies and does not act on adults the overpopulation is avoided and only genetic factors may lead to species extinction.

  8. Relating plant height to demographic rates and extinction vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de Melinda M.J.; Hilbers, Jelle P.; Jongejans, Eelke; Ozinga, Wim A.; Hendriks, A.J.; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

    2018-01-01

    To prioritize conservation efforts, it is important to know which plant species are most vulnerable to extinction. Intrinsic extinction vulnerabilities depend on demographic parameters, but for many species these demographic parameters are lacking. Body size has been successfully used as proxy of

  9. Does red noise increase or decrease extinction risk? Single extreme events versus series of unfavorable conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwager, Monika; Johst, Karin; Jeltsch, Florian

    2006-06-01

    Recent theoretical studies have shown contrasting effects of temporal correlation of environmental fluctuations (red noise) on the risk of population extinction. It is still debated whether and under which conditions red noise increases or decreases extinction risk compared with uncorrelated (white) noise. Here, we explain the opposing effects by introducing two features of red noise time series. On the one hand, positive autocorrelation increases the probability of series of poor environmental conditions, implying increasing extinction risk. On the other hand, for a given time period, the probability of at least one extremely bad year ("catastrophe") is reduced compared with white noise, implying decreasing extinction risk. Which of these two features determines extinction risk depends on the strength of environmental fluctuations and the sensitivity of population dynamics to these fluctuations. If extreme (catastrophic) events can occur (strong noise) or sensitivity is high (overcompensatory density dependence), then temporal correlation decreases extinction risk; otherwise, it increases it. Thus, our results provide a simple explanation for the contrasting previous findings and are a crucial step toward a general understanding of the effect of noise color on extinction risk.

  10. Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter S Rand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

  11. Extinction risk assessment for the species survival plan (SSP) population of the Bali mynah (Leucopsar rothschildi).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earnhardt, Joanne M; Thompson, Steven D; Faust, Lisa J

    2009-05-01

    The Bali mynah Species Survival Plan (SSP), an Association of Zoos and Aquariums program, strives to maintain the genetic and demographic health of its population, avoid unplanned changes in size, and minimize the risk of population extinction. The SSP population meets current demographic and genetic objectives with a population size of 209 birds at 61 institutions and 96% genetic diversity (GD) retained from the source population. However, participating institutions have expressed concerns regarding space allocation, target population size (TPS), breeding restrictions, inbreeding depression, and harvest in relation to future population availability and viability. Based on these factors, we assess five questions with a quantitative risk assessment, specifically a population viability analysis (PVA) using ZooRisk software. Using an individual-based stochastic model, we project potential population changes under different conditions (e.g. changes in TPS and genetic management) to identify the most effective management actions. Our projections indicate that under current management conditions, population decline and extinction are unlikely and that although GD will decline over 100 years the projected loss does not exceed levels acceptable to population managers (less than 90% GD retained). Model simulations indicate that the combination of two genetic management strategies (i.e. priority breeding based on mean kinship and inbreeding avoidance) benefits the retention of GD and reduces the accumulation of inbreeding. The current TPS (250) is greater than necessary to minimize the risk of extinction for the SSP population but any reduction in TPS must be accompanied by continued application of genetic management. If carefully planned, birds can be harvested for transfer to Bali for a reintroduction program without jeopardizing the SSP population.

  12. Regulation of extinction-related plasticity by opioid receptors in the ventrolateral periaqueductal gray matter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan Parsons

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent work has led to a better understanding of the neural mechanisms underlying the extinction of Pavlovian fear conditioning. Long-term synaptic changes in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC are critical for extinction learning, but very little is currently known about how the mPFC and other brain areas interact during extinction. The current study examined the effect of drugs that impair the extinction of fear conditioning on the activation of the extracellular-related kinase/mitogen-activated protein kinase (ERK/MAPK in brain regions that likely participate in the consolidation of extinction learning. Inhibitors of opioid and N-methyl-D-aspartic acid (NMDA receptors were applied to the ventrolateral periaqueductal gray matter (vlPAG and amygdala shortly before extinction training. Results from these experiments show that blocking opioid receptors in the vlPAG prevented the formation of extinction memory, whereas NMDA receptor blockade had no effect. Conversely, blocking NMDA receptors in the amygdala disrupted the formation of fear extinction memory, but opioid receptor blockade in the same brain area did not. Subsequent experiments tested the effect of these drug treatments on the activation of the ERK/MAPK signaling pathway in various brain regions following extinction training. Only opioid receptor blockade in the vlPAG disrupted ERK phosphorylation in the mPFC and amygdala. These data support the idea that opiodergic signaling derived from the vlPAG affects plasticity across the brain circuit responsible for the formation of extinction memory.

  13. The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth A Polidoro

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16% are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

  14. The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polidoro, Beth A; Carpenter, Kent E; Collins, Lorna; Duke, Norman C; Ellison, Aaron M; Ellison, Joanna C; Farnsworth, Elizabeth J; Fernando, Edwino S; Kathiresan, Kandasamy; Koedam, Nico E; Livingstone, Suzanne R; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Moore, Gregg E; Ngoc Nam, Vien; Ong, Jin Eong; Primavera, Jurgenne H; Salmo, Severino G; Sanciangco, Jonnell C; Sukardjo, Sukristijono; Wang, Yamin; Yong, Jean Wan Hong

    2010-04-08

    Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16%) are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

  15. Global patterns of extinction risk in marine and non-marine systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Thomas J; Mindel, Beth L

    2015-02-16

    Despite increasing concern over the effects of human activities on marine ecosystems, extinction in the sea remains scarce: 19-24 out of a total of >850 recorded extinctions implies a 9-fold lower marine extinction rate compared to non-marine systems. The extent of threats faced by marine systems, and their resilience to them, receive considerable attention, but the detectability of marine extinctions is less well understood. Before its extinction or threat status is recorded, a species must be both taxonomically described and then formally assessed; lower rates of either process for marine species could thus impact patterns of extinction risk, especially as species missing from taxonomic inventories may often be more vulnerable than described species. We combine data on taxonomic description with conservation assessments from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to test these possibilities across almost all marine and non-marine eukaryotes. We find that the 9-fold lower rate of recorded extinctions and 4-fold lower rate of ongoing extinction risk across marine species can be explained in part by differences in the proportion of species assessed by the IUCN (3% cf. 4% of non-marine species). Furthermore, once taxonomic knowledge and conservation assessments pass a threshold level, differences in extinction risk between marine and non-marine groups largely disappear. Indeed, across the best-studied taxonomic groups, there is no difference between marine and non-marine systems, with on average between 20% and 25% of species being threatened with extinction, regardless of realm. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. On the relative contributions of noncontingent reinforcement and escape extinction in the treatment of food refusal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Gregory K; Piazza, Cathleen C; Patel, Meeta R; Layer, Stacy A; Bachmeyer, Melanie H; Bethke, Stephanie D; Gutshall, Katharine A

    2004-01-01

    In the current investigation, we evaluated the relative effects of noncontingent reinforcement (NCR), escape extinction, and a combination of NCR and escape extinction as treatment for the feeding problems exhibited by 4 children. For each participant, consumption increased only when escape extinction was implemented, independent of whether NCR was present or absent. These results were consistent with prior research suggesting that positive reinforcement alone is insufficient for increasing consumption, and that escape extinction often is necessary to increase and maintain food acceptance. However, NCR appeared to decrease inappropriate behavior for some participants.

  17. Incorporating climate and ocean change into extinction risk assessments for 82 coral species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainard, Russell E; Weijerman, Mariska; Eakin, C Mark; McElhany, Paul; Miller, Margaret W; Patterson, Matt; Piniak, Gregory A; Dunlap, Matthew J; Birkeland, Charles

    2013-12-01

    Many marine invertebrate species facing potential extinction have uncertain taxonomies and poorly known demographic and ecological traits. Uncertainties are compounded when potential extinction drivers are climate and ocean changes whose effects on even widespread and abundant species are only partially understood. The U.S. Endangered Species Act mandates conservation management decisions founded on the extinction risk to species based on the best available science at the time of consideration-requiring prompt action rather than awaiting better information. We developed an expert-opinion threat-based approach that entails a structured voting system to assess extinction risk from climate and ocean changes and other threats to 82 coral species for which population status and threat response information was limited. Such methods are urgently needed because constrained budgets and manpower will continue to hinder the availability of desired data for many potentially vulnerable marine species. Significant species-specific information gaps and uncertainties precluded quantitative assessments of habitat loss or population declines and necessitated increased reliance on demographic characteristics and threat vulnerabilities at genus or family levels. Adapting some methods (e.g., a structured voting system) used during other assessments and developing some new approaches (e.g., integrated assessment of threats and demographic characteristics), we rated the importance of threats contributing to coral extinction risk and assessed those threats against population status and trend information to evaluate each species' extinction risk over the 21st century. This qualitative assessment resulted in a ranking with an uncertainty range for each species according to their estimated likelihood of extinction. We offer guidance on approaches for future biological extinction risk assessments, especially in cases of data-limited species likely to be affected by global-scale threats

  18. THE OBSERVED RELATION BETWEEN STELLAR MASS, DUST EXTINCTION, AND STAR FORMATION RATE IN LOCAL GALAXIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zahid, H. J.; Kewley, L. J.; Kudritzki, R. P.; Yates, R. M.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and star formation rate (SFR) using ∼150,000 star-forming galaxies from SDSS DR7. We show that the relation between dust extinction and SFR changes with stellar mass. For galaxies at the same stellar mass, dust extinction is anti-correlated with the SFR at stellar masses 10 M ☉ . There is a sharp transition in the relation at a stellar mass of 10 10 M ☉ . At larger stellar masses, dust extinction is positively correlated with the SFR for galaxies at the same stellar mass. The observed relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and SFR presented in this study helps to confirm similar trends observed in the relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and SFR. The relation reported in this study provides important new constraints on the physical processes governing the chemical evolution of galaxies. The correlation between SFR and dust extinction for galaxies with stellar masses >10 10 M ☉ is shown to extend to the population of quiescent galaxies suggesting that the physical processes responsible for the observed relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and SFR may be related to the processes leading to the shutdown of star formation in galaxies.

  19. THE OBSERVED RELATION BETWEEN STELLAR MASS, DUST EXTINCTION, AND STAR FORMATION RATE IN LOCAL GALAXIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zahid, H. J.; Kewley, L. J.; Kudritzki, R. P. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2680 Woodlawn Dr., Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Yates, R. M. [Max-Planck-Institute for Astrophysics, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, D-85741 Garching (Germany)

    2013-02-15

    In this study, we investigate the relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and star formation rate (SFR) using {approx}150,000 star-forming galaxies from SDSS DR7. We show that the relation between dust extinction and SFR changes with stellar mass. For galaxies at the same stellar mass, dust extinction is anti-correlated with the SFR at stellar masses <10{sup 10} M {sub Sun }. There is a sharp transition in the relation at a stellar mass of 10{sup 10} M {sub Sun }. At larger stellar masses, dust extinction is positively correlated with the SFR for galaxies at the same stellar mass. The observed relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and SFR presented in this study helps to confirm similar trends observed in the relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and SFR. The relation reported in this study provides important new constraints on the physical processes governing the chemical evolution of galaxies. The correlation between SFR and dust extinction for galaxies with stellar masses >10{sup 10} M {sub Sun} is shown to extend to the population of quiescent galaxies suggesting that the physical processes responsible for the observed relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and SFR may be related to the processes leading to the shutdown of star formation in galaxies.

  20. Pelagic larval duration predicts extinction risk in a freshwater fish clade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Morgan; Keck, Benjamin P; Ruble, Crystal; Petty, Melissa; Shute, J R; Rakes, Patrick; Hulsey, C Darrin

    2013-01-01

    Pelagic larval duration (PLD) can influence evolutionary processes ranging from dispersal to extinction in aquatic organisms. Using estimates of PLD obtained from species of North American darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae), we demonstrate that this freshwater fish clade exhibits surprising variation in PLD. Comparative analyses provide some evidence that higher stream gradients favour the evolution of shorter PLD. Additionally, similar to patterns in the marine fossil record in which lower PLD is associated with greater extinction probability, we found a reduced PLD in darter lineages was evolutionarily associated with extinction risk. Understanding the causes and consequences of PLD length could lead to better management and conservation of organisms in our increasingly imperiled aquatic environments.

  1. Extinction Risk of Phytoplankton Species to Potential Killing Mechanisms at the Cretaceous-Paleogene Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bralower, T. J.; Schueth, J.; Jiang, S.

    2013-05-01

    The impact at Chicxulub caused catastrophic changes in marine habitats including extended darkness, ocean acidification and eutrophication. These changes were devastating to some groups of phytoplankton at the base of the marine food chain while others escaped virtually unscathed. For example, diatoms had ~85% survival across the boundary and dinoflagellates actually increased in diversity. These non-calcareous plankton most likely survived due to their adaptation to high-stress environments and their ability to form spores and resting cysts. The calcareous nannoplankton, however, were decimated with approximately 85% of genera and 93% of species going extinct. Nannoplankton generally lack the ability to encyst and thus, as a group, would have been susceptible to darkness, ocean acidification and eutrophication. However, we still do not fully understand why certain nannofossil taxa survived while others went extinct. Extinction risk, the projected susceptibility of a taxon to extinction based on its ecology and ability to adapt, is a concept that is widely applied to extant species and higher order fossil groups, but not to phytoplankton. This concept is a useful for probing the selectivity of ancient species to mass extinction. Determining the extinction risk of latest Maastrichtian nannoplankton species would be a step towards understanding the selection of survivors. The deep-sea record contains a remarkable archive of nannoplankton extinction and recovery across the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. The recovery was geologically extended, enabling detailed comparisons between the ocean basins. A large, global database of assemblages had led to the discovery that the Northern Hemisphere oceans suffered higher nannoplankton extinction rates than the Southern Hemisphere with an ecological "crisis" that lasted for approximately 350 thousand years after the impact. In addition, incumbency played a major role in the origination of new species. Since extinction almost

  2. Predicting the risk of extinction from shared ecological characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Kotiaho, Janne S.; Kaitala, Veijo; Komonen, Atte; Päivinen, Jussi

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the ultimate causes of population declines and extinction is vital in our quest to stop the currently rampant biodiversity loss. Comparison of ecological characteristics between threatened and nonthreatened species may reveal these ultimate causes. Here, we report an analysis of ecological characteristics of 23 threatened and 72 nonthreatened butterfly species. Our analysis reveals that threatened butterflies are characterized by narrow niche breadth, restricted resource distrib...

  3. Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pontes-da-Silva, Emerson; Magnusson, William E; Sinervo, Barry; Caetano, Gabriel H; Miles, Donald B; Colli, Guarino R; Diele-Viegas, Luisa M; Fenker, Jessica; Santos, Juan C; Werneck, Fernanda P

    2018-04-01

    Temperature increases can impact biodiversity and predicting their effects is one of the main challenges facing global climate-change research. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature change and, although predictions indicate that tropical species are highly vulnerable to global warming, they remain one of the least studied groups with respect to the extent of physiological variation and local extinction risks. We model the extinction risks for a tropical heliothermic teiid lizard (Kentropyx calcarata) integrating previously obtained information on intraspecific phylogeographic structure, eco-physiological traits and contemporary species distributions in the Amazon rainforest and its ecotone to the Cerrado savannah. We also investigated how thermal-biology traits vary throughout the species' geographic range and the consequences of such variation for lineage vulnerability. We show substantial variation in thermal tolerance of individuals among thermally distinct sites. Thermal critical limits were highly correlated with operative environmental temperatures. Our physiological/climatic model predicted relative extinction risks for local populations within clades of K. calcarata for 2050 ranging between 26.1% and 70.8%, while for 2070, extinction risks ranged from 52.8% to 92.8%. Our results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures. However, the thermo-physiological differences found across the species' distribution suggest that local adaptation may allow persistence of this tropical ectotherm in global warming scenarios. These results will serve as basis to further research to investigate the strength of local adaptation to climate change. Persistence of Kentropyx calcarata also depends on forest preservation, but the Amazon rainforest is currently under high deforestation rates. We argue that higher conservation priority is necessary so the Amazon rainforest can fulfill its capacity to

  4. Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

    2016-01-01

    The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

  5. Body Size Preference of Marine Animals in Relation to Extinction Selectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriram, A.; Idgunji, S.; Heim, N. A.; Payne, J.

    2014-12-01

    Our project encompasses an extremely specific aspect in relation to the five mass extinctions in geologic history. We asked ourselves whether larger or smaller body sizes would be better suited for surviving a mass extinction. To conduct research for our project, we used the body sizes of 17,172 marine animal genera as our primary data. These animals include echinoderms, arthropods, chordates, mollusks, and brachiopods. These creatures are perfect model organisms in terms of finding data on them because they have an excellent fossil record, and are well documented. We focused on the mean body size of these animals before and after each of the five mass extinctions (end-Ordovician, Late Devonian, end-Permian, end-Triassic, and end-Cretaceous). Our hypothesis was that the average biovolume of animals increased after each of the extinctions, with the mean size being greater after than it was before. Our size data is from the Ellis & Messina Catalogue of Ostracoda and the Treatise on Invertebrate Paleontology. We obtained stratigraphic range data The Treatise and Sepkoski (2002). In our analyses, we compared the mean size of the different animal genera before and after each extinction event. We further partitioned size change across mass extinction boundaries into three categories: the surviving genera, the extinct genera, and the newly originating genera that came about after the extinction. According to our analyses, the mean sizes did not change significantly from the genera living during the stages before the extinctions and after the extinctions. From our results, we can assume that there were not enough major increases in the overall volume of the organisms to warrant a definite conclusion that extinctions lead to larger body sizes. Further support for our findings came from the T-tests in our R code. Only the Cretaceous period showed true evidence for size changing because of the extinction; in this case, the mean size decreased. T-tests for the Cretaceous

  6. Communicating Conservation Status: How Different Statistical Assessment Criteria Affect Perceptions of Extinction Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hwanseok; Schuldt, Jonathon P

    2017-09-01

    Although alternative forms of statistical and verbal information are routinely used to convey species' extinction risk to policymakers and the public, little is known about their effects on audience information processing and risk perceptions. To address this gap in literature, we report on an experiment that was designed to explore how perceptions of extinction risk differ as a function of five different assessment benchmarks (Criteria A-E) used by scientists to classify species within IUCN Red List risk levels (e.g., Critically Endangered, Vulnerable), as well as the role of key individual differences in these effects (e.g., rational and experiential thinking styles, environmental concern). Despite their normative equivalence within the IUCN classification system, results revealed divergent effects of specific assessment criteria: on average, describing extinction risk in terms of proportional population decline over time (Criterion A) and number of remaining individuals (Criterion D) evoked the highest level of perceived risk, whereas the single-event probability of a species becoming extinct (Criterion E) engendered the least perceived risk. Furthermore, participants scoring high in rationality (analytic thinking) were less prone to exhibit these biases compared to those low in rationality. Our findings suggest that despite their equivalence in the eyes of scientific experts, IUCN criteria are indeed capable of engendering different levels of risk perception among lay audiences, effects that carry direct and important implications for those tasked with communicating about conservation status to diverse publics. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Long-distance translocations to create a second millerbird population and reduce extinction risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holly Freifeld,; Sheldon Plentovich,; Chris Farmer,; Charles Kohley,; Peter Luscomb,; Work, Thierry M.; Daniel Tsukayama,; George Wallace,; Mark MacDonald,; Sheila Conant,

    2016-01-01

    Translocation is a conservation tool used with increasing frequency to create additional populations of threatened species. In addition to following established general guidelines for translocations, detailed planning to account for unique circumstances and intensive post-release monitoring to document outcomes and guide management are essential components of these projects. Recent translocation of the critically endangered Nihoa millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) provides an example of this planning and monitoring. The Nihoa millerbird is a passerine bird endemic to Nihoa Island in the remote Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The closely related, ecologically similar Laysan millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris familiaris) went extinct on Laysan Island in the early 20th century when the island was denuded by introduced rabbits. To reduce extinction risk, we translocated 50 adult Nihoa millerbirds more than 1000 km by sea to Laysan, which has recovered substantially in the past century and has ample habitat and a rich prey-base for millerbirds. Following five years of intensive background research and planning, including development of husbandry techniques, fundraising, and regulatory compliance, translocations occurred in 2011 and 2012. Of 11 females in each cohort, 8 (2011 cohort) and 11 (2012 cohort) produced at least one brood of fledglings during their first year on Laysan. At the conclusion of monitoring in September 2014, 37 of the translocated birds were known to survive, and the population was estimated at 164 birds. The reintroduction of millerbirds to Laysan represents a milestone in the island's ongoing restoration.

  8. Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J Wiens

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the "warm edges" of species' ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations, contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%, in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%, and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%. Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades.

  9. Global analysis of threat status reveals higher extinction risk in tropical than in temperate bird sister species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reif Jiří

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given increasing pressures upon biodiversity, identification of species’ traits related to elevated extinction risk is useful for more efficient allocation of limited resources for nature conservation. Despite its need, such a global analysis was lacking in the case of birds. Therefore, we performed this exercise for avian sister species using information about their global extinction risk from IUCN Red List. We focused on 113 pairs of sister species, each containing a threatened and an unthreatened species to factor out the effects of common evolutionary history on the revealed relationship. We collected data on five traits with expected relationships to species’ extinction risk based on previous studies performed at regional or national levels: breeding habitat (recognizing forest, grassland, wetland and oceanic species, latitudinal range position (temperate and tropics species, migration strategy (migratory and resident species, diet (carnivorous, insectivorous, herbivorous and omnivorous species and body mass. We related the extinction risk using IUCN threat level categories to species’ traits using generalised linear mixed effects models expecting lower risk for forest, temperate, omnivorous and smaller-bodied species. Our expectation was confirmed only in the case of latitudinal range position, as we revealed higher threat level for tropical than for temperate species. This relationship was robust to different methods of threat level expression and cannot be explained by a simple association of high bird species richness with the tropical zone. Instead, it seems that tropical species are more threatened because of their intrinsic characteristics such as slow life histories, adaptations to stable environments and small geographic ranges. These characteristics are obviously disadvantageous in conditions of current human-induced environmental perturbations. Moreover, given the absence of habitat effects, our study indicates that such

  10. Interventions for reducing extinction risk in chytridiomycosis-threatened amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheele, Ben C; Hunter, David A; Grogan, Laura F; Berger, Lee; Kolby, Jon E; McFadden, Michael S; Marantelli, Gerry; Skerratt, Lee F; Driscoll, Don A

    2014-10-01

    Wildlife diseases pose an increasing threat to biodiversity and are a major management challenge. A striking example of this threat is the emergence of chytridiomycosis. Despite diagnosis of chytridiomycosis as an important driver of global amphibian declines 15 years ago, researchers have yet to devise effective large-scale management responses other than biosecurity measures to mitigate disease spread and the establishment of disease-free captive assurance colonies prior to or during disease outbreaks. We examined the development of management actions that can be implemented after an epidemic in surviving populations. We developed a conceptual framework with clear interventions to guide experimental management and applied research so that further extinctions of amphibian species threatened by chytridiomycosis might be prevented. Within our framework, there are 2 management approaches: reducing Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (the fungus that causes chytridiomycosis) in the environment or on amphibians and increasing the capacity of populations to persist despite increased mortality from disease. The latter approach emphasizes that mitigation does not necessarily need to focus on reducing disease-associated mortality. We propose promising management actions that can be implemented and tested based on current knowledge and that include habitat manipulation, antifungal treatments, animal translocation, bioaugmentation, head starting, and selection for resistance. Case studies where these strategies are being implemented will demonstrate their potential to save critically endangered species. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  11. Trait-based prediction of extinction risk of small-bodied freshwater fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopf, R Keller; Shaw, Casey; Humphries, Paul

    2017-06-01

    Small body size is generally correlated with r-selected life-history traits, including early maturation, short-generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small-bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray-Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi-Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty-three ecological and life-history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size-among small-bodied species-was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k-folds cross-validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small-bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11

  12. Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

    2014-03-01

    There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

  13. Predictors of extinction risk of passerine birds in a Central European country

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Koleček, Jaroslav; Albrecht, Tomáš; Reif, J.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 5 (2014), s. 498-506 ISSN 1367-9430 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : red list * life history * habitat specialization * distribution * climate change * threatened species * extinction risk * passerine Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 2.852, year: 2014

  14. Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike S Fowler

    Full Text Available The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate. Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback models: autoregressive [AR(1] and sinusoidal (1/f models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1 models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1 methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We

  15. Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Mike S; Ruokolainen, Lasse

    2013-01-01

    The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies) dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies) in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate). Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental) series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback) models: autoregressive [AR(1)] and sinusoidal (1/f) models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1) models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing) populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1) methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We must let

  16. Elemental conservation units: communicating extinction risk without dictating targets for protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Chris C; Gross, Mart R

    2008-02-01

    Conservation biologists mostly agree on the need to identify and protect biodiversity below the species level but have not yet resolved the best approach. We addressed 2 issues relevant to this debate. First, we distinguished between the abstract goal of preserving the maximum amount of unique biodiversity and the pragmatic goal of minimizing the loss of ecological goods and services given that further loss of biodiversity seems inevitable. Second, we distinguished between the scientific task of assessing extinction risk and the normative task of choosing targets for protection. We propose that scientific advice on extinction risk be given at the smallest meaningful scale: the elemental conservation unit (ECU). An ECU is a demographically isolated population whose probability of extinction over the time scale of interest (say 100 years) is not substantially affected by natural immigration from other populations. Within this time frame, the loss of an ECU would be irreversible without human intervention. Society's decision to protect an ECU ought to reflect human values that have social, economic, and political dimensions. Scientists can best inform this decision by providing advice about the probability that an ECU will be lost and the ecological and evolutionary consequences of that loss in a form that can be integrated into landscape planning. The ECU approach provides maximum flexibility to decision makers and ensures that the scientific task of assessing extinction risk informs, but remains distinct from, the normative social challenge of setting conservation targets.

  17. Synergistic effects of climate change and harvest on extinction risk of American ginseng.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souther, Sara; McGraw, James B

    Over the next century, the conservation of biodiversity will depend not only on our ability to understand the effect of climate change, but also on our capacity to predict how other factors interact with climate change to influence species viability. We used American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.), the United States' premier wild-harvested medicinal, as a model system to ask whether the effect of harvest on extinction risk depends on changing climatic conditions. We performed stochastic projections of viability response to an increase in maximum growing-season temperature of 1°C over the next 70 years by sampling matrices from long-term demographic studies of 12 populations (representing 75 population-years of data). In simulations that included harvest and climate change, extinction risk at the median population size (N = 140) was 65%, far exceeding the additive effects of the two factors (extinction risk = 8% and 6% for harvest and climate change, respectively; quasi-extinction threshold = 20). We performed a life table response experiment (LTRE) to determine underlying causes of the effect of warming and harvest on deterministic λ (λd). Together, these factors decreased λd values primarily by reducing growth of juvenile and small adult plants to the large-adult stage, as well as decreasing stasis of the juveniles and large adults. The interaction observed in stochastic model results followed from a nonlinear increase in extinction risk as the combined impact of harvest and warming consistently reduced λ values below the demographic tipping point of λ = 1. While further research is needed to create specific recommendations, these findings indicate that ginseng harvest regulations should be revised to account for changing climate. Given the possibility of nonlinear response like that reported here, pre-emptive adaptation of management strategies may increase efficacy of biodiversity conservation by allowing behavior modification prior to precipitous

  18. Noradrenergic stimulation modulates activation of extinction-related brain regions and enhances contextual extinction learning without affecting renewal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silke eLissek

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Renewal in extinction learning describes the recovery of an extinguished response if the extinction context differs from the context present during acquisition and recall. Attention may have a role in contextual modulation of behavior and contribute to the renewal effect, while noradrenaline is involved in attentional processing. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI study we investigated the role of the noradrenergic system for behavioral and brain activation correlates of contextual extinction and renewal, with a particular focus upon hippocampus and ventromedial PFC, which have crucial roles in processing of renewal. Healthy human volunteers received a single dose of the NA reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine prior to extinction learning. During extinction of previously acquired cue-outcome associations, cues were presented in a novel context (ABA or in the acquisition context (AAA. In recall, all cues were again presented in the acquisition context. Atomoxetine participants (ATO showed significantly faster extinction compared to placebo (PLAC. However, atomoxetine did not affect renewal. Hippocampal activation was higher in ATO during extinction and recall, as was ventromedial PFC activation, except for ABA recall. Moreover, ATO showed stronger recruitment of insula, anterior cingulate, and dorsolateral/orbitofrontal PFC. Across groups, cingulate, hippocampus and vmPFC activity during ABA extinction correlated with recall performance, suggesting high relevance of these regions for processing the renewal effect. In summary, the noradrenergic system appears to be involved in the modification of established associations during extinction learning and thus has a role in behavioral flexibility. The assignment of an association to a context and the subsequent decision on an adequate response, however, presumably operate largely independently of noradrenergic mechanisms.

  19. A GIS-based comparison of the Mexican national and IUCN methods for determining extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arroyo, Teresa P Feria; Olson, Mark E; García-Mendoza, Abisaí; Solano, Eloy

    2009-10-01

    The national systems used in the evaluation of extinction risk are often touted as more readily applied and somehow more regionally appropriate than the system of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). We compared risk assessments of the Mexican national system (method for evaluation of risk of extinction of wild species [MER]) with the IUCN system for the 16 Polianthes taxa (Agavaceae), a genus of plants with marked variation in distribution sizes. We used a novel combination of herbarium data, geographic information systems (GIS), and species distribution models to provide rapid, repeatable estimates of extinction risk. Our GIS method showed that the MER and the IUCN system use similar data. Our comparison illustrates how the IUCN method can be applied even when all desirable data are not available, and that the MER offers no special regional advantage with respect to the IUCN regional system. Instead, our results coincided, with both systems identifying 14 taxa of conservation concern and the remaining two taxa of low risk, largely because both systems use similar information. An obstacle for the application of the MER is that there are no standards for quantifying the criteria of habitat condition and intrinsic biological vulnerability. If these impossible-to-quantify criteria are left out, what are left are geographical distribution and the impact of human activity, essentially the considerations we were able to assess for the IUCN method. Our method has the advantage of making the IUCN criteria easy to apply, and because each step can be standardized between studies, it ensures greater comparability of extinction risk estimates among taxa.

  20. Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amano, Tatsuya; Sandel, Brody Steven; Eager, Heidi

    2014-01-01

    latitudes and are strongly linked to high economic growth. Threatened languages are numerous in the tropics, the Himalayas and northwestern North America. These results indicate that small-population languages remaining in economically developed regions are seriously threatened by continued speaker declines....... However, risks of future language losses are especially high in the tropics and in the Himalayas, as these regions harbour many small-population languages and are undergoing rapid economic growth....

  1. Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky......We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...

  2. Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Marco, Moreno; Buchanan, Graeme M; Szantoi, Zoltan; Holmgren, Milena; Grottolo Marasini, Gabriele; Gross, Dorit; Tranquilli, Sandra; Boitani, Luigi; Rondinini, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Although conservation intervention has reversed the decline of some species, our success is outweighed by a much larger number of species moving towards extinction. Extinction risk modelling can identify correlates of risk and species not yet recognized to be threatened. Here, we use machine learning models to identify correlates of extinction risk in African terrestrial mammals using a set of variables belonging to four classes: species distribution state, human pressures, conservation response and species biology. We derived information on distribution state and human pressure from satellite-borne imagery. Variables in all four classes were identified as important predictors of extinction risk, and interactions were observed among variables in different classes (e.g. level of protection, human threats, species distribution ranges). Species biology had a key role in mediating the effect of external variables. The model was 90% accurate in classifying extinction risk status of species, but in a few cases the observed and modelled extinction risk mismatched. Species in this condition might suffer from an incorrect classification of extinction risk (hence require reassessment). An increased availability of satellite imagery combined with improved resolution and classification accuracy of the resulting maps will play a progressively greater role in conservation monitoring.

  3. Clarifying misconceptions of extinction risk assessment with the IUCN Red List

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Gaston, Kevin J.; Gärdenfors, Ulf; Keith, David A.; Punt, André E.; Regan, Helen M.; Böhm, Monika; Hedges, Simon; Seddon, Mary; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steven P.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

    2016-01-01

    The identification of species at risk of extinction is a central goal of conservation. As the use of data compiled for IUCN Red List assessments expands, a number of misconceptions regarding the purpose, application and use of the IUCN Red List categories and criteria have arisen. We outline five such classes of misconception; the most consequential drive proposals for adapted versions of the criteria, rendering assessments among species incomparable. A key challenge for the future will be to recognize the point where understanding has developed so markedly that it is time for the next generation of the Red List criteria. We do not believe we are there yet but, recognizing the need for scrutiny and continued development of Red Listing, conclude by suggesting areas where additional research could be valuable in improving the understanding of extinction risk among species. PMID:27072401

  4. Phylogenetic Patterns of Extinction Risk in the Eastern Arc Ecosystems, an African Biodiversity Hotspot

    OpenAIRE

    Yessoufou, Kowiyou; Daru, Barnabas H.; Davies, T. Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    There is an urgent need to reduce drastically the rate at which biodiversity is declining worldwide. Phylogenetic methods are increasingly being recognised as providing a useful framework for predicting future losses, and guiding efforts for pre-emptive conservation actions. In this study, we used a reconstructed phylogenetic tree of angiosperm species of the Eastern Arc Mountains - an important African biodiversity hotspot - and described the distribution of extinction risk across taxonomic ...

  5. Association of extinction risk of saproxylic beetles with ecological degradation of forests in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibold, Sebastian; Brandl, Roland; Buse, Jörn; Hothorn, Torsten; Schmidl, Jürgen; Thorn, Simon; Müller, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    To reduce future loss of biodiversity and to allocate conservation funds effectively, the major drivers behind large-scale extinction processes must be identified. A promising approach is to link the red-list status of species and specific traits that connect species of functionally important taxa or guilds to resources they rely on. Such traits can be used to detect the influence of anthropogenic ecosystem changes and conservation efforts on species, which allows for practical recommendations for conservation. We modeled the German Red List categories as an ordinal index of extinction risk of 1025 saproxylic beetles with a proportional-odds linear mixed-effects model for ordered categorical responses. In this model, we estimated fixed effects for intrinsic traits characterizing species biology, required resources, and distribution with phylogenetically correlated random intercepts. The model also allowed predictions of extinction risk for species with no red-list category. Our model revealed a higher extinction risk for lowland and large species as well as for species that rely on wood of large diameter, broad-leaved trees, or open canopy. These results mirror well the ecological degradation of European forests over the last centuries caused by modern forestry, that is the conversion of natural broad-leaved forests to dense conifer-dominated forests and the loss of old growth and dead wood. Therefore, conservation activities aimed at saproxylic beetles in all types of forests in Central and Western Europe should focus on lowlands, and habitat management of forest stands should aim at increasing the amount of dead wood of large diameter, dead wood of broad-leaved trees, and dead wood in sunny areas. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. Distribution, ecology, life history, genetic variation, and risk of extinction of nonhuman primates from Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María E Zaldívar

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available We examined the association between geographic distribution, ecological traits, life history, genetic diversity, and risk of extinction in nonhuman primate species from Costa Rica. All of the current nonhuman primate species from Costa Rica are included in the study; spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi, howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata, capuchins (Cebus capucinus, and squirrel monkeys (Saimiri oerstedii. Geographic distribution was characterized accessing existing databases. Data on ecology and life history traits were obtained through a literature review. Genetic diversity was characterized using isozyme electrophoresis. Risk of extinction was assessed from the literature. We found that species differed in all these traits. Using these data, we conducted a Pearson correlation between risk of extinction and ecological and life history traits, and genetic variation, for widely distributed species. We found a negative association between risk of extinction and population birth and growth rates; indicating that slower reproducing species had a greater risk of extinction. We found a positive association between genetic variation and risk of extinction; i.e., species showing higher genetic variation had a greater risk of extinction. The relevance of these traits for conservation efforts is discussed. Rev. Biol. Trop. 52(3: 679-693. Epub 2004 Dic 15.Se estudió la asociación entre la distribución geográfica, algunos rasgos ecológicos, las historias de vida, la diversidad genética y el riesgo de extinción, en primates no humanos de Costa Rica. Se incluyen todas las especies de primates no humanos del país: los monos araña (Ateles geoffroyi, congo (Alouatta palliata, cara blanca (Cebus capucinus, y tití (Saimiri oerstedii. La distribución geográfica se caracterizó utilizando principalmente bases de datos existentes. Se obtuvo información acerca de sus características ecológicas y de historias de vida mediante una revisión bibliogr

  7. Extinction Risk of Pseudotsuga Menziesii Populations in the Central Region of Mexico: An AHP Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier López-Upton

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Within the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP framework, a hierarchical model was created considering anthropogenic, genetic and ecological criteria and sub-criteria that directly affect Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb. risk of extinction in central Mexico. The sub-criteria values were standardized, weighted, and ordered by importance in a pairwise comparison matrix; the model was mathematically integrated to quantify the degree of extinction risk for each of the 29 populations present in the study area. The results indicate diverse levels of risk for the populations, ranging from very low to very high. Estanzuela, Presa Jaramillo, Peñas Cargadas and Plan del Baile populations have very low risk, with values less than 0.25. On the other hand, Vicente Guerrero, Morán, Minatitlán, La Garita and Tonalapa populations have very high risk (>0.35 because they are heavily influenced by anthropogenic (close to roads and towns, ecological (presence of exotic species and little or no natural regeneration and genetic (presence of mature to overmature trees and geographic isolation factors. In situ conservation activities, prioritizing their implementation in populations at most risk is highly recommended; in addition, germplasm collection for use of assisted gene flow and migration approaches, including artificial reforestation, should be considered in these locations.

  8. Decreasing relative risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    2007-01-01

    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

  9. Local extinction and colonisation in native and exotic fish in relation to changes in land use

    OpenAIRE

    Kopp , Dorothée; Figuerola , Jordi; Compin , Arthur; Santoul , Frédéric; Céréghino , Régis

    2011-01-01

    International audience; Distribution patterns of many native and exotic fish species are well documented, yet little is known about the temporal dynamics of native and exotic diversity in relation to changes in land use. We hypothesised that colonisation rates would be higher for exotic fish species and that extinction rates would be higher for native species in large stream systems. We also predicted that cold-water species would be more impacted than thermally tolerant species. To test thes...

  10. A popular and potentially sustainable fishery resource under pressure–extinction risk and conservation of Brazilian Sciaenidae (Teleostei: Perciformes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Labbish Chao

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Croakers (Sciaenidae are major fishery resource in Brazil; constituting 22% of marine and 9% of freshwater fishery landings. Croakers are subject to heavy fishing pressure throughout Brazil, but habitat alteration is also an important threat to regional populations. In this regional Sciaenidae assessment, each species was analyzed for relative risk of extinction, including the identification and quantification of the impact of major threats and existing conservation measures, based on application of the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Of the 52 species of Sciaenid fishes (34 marine and 18 freshwater present in Brazilian waters, the majority are at low risk of extinction, with 10 species classified as Data Deficient (DD and 36 as Least Concern (LC. However the Southern black drum (Pogonias cromis, listed as Endangered (EN is the most threatened species in the region, while three other species are classified as Near Threatened (NT. A large portion of Brazilian croakers is landed by small-scale artisanal fisheries, which are scattered along coastal and riverine communities. However, our assessments reveal that available fishery landing statistics may have greatly underestimated the artisanal fishery production and by-catch of Sciaenids. We recommend establishing, with adequate enforcement, coastal and riverine protected areas as well as strategic fishing seasons to improve and maintain the conservation status of Sciaenids and sustainable Sciaenid fisheries.

  11. Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

    2012-02-15

    The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

  12. Living on the edge: assessing the extinction risk of critically endangered Bonelli's eagle in Italy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascual López-López

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The population of Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata has declined drastically throughout its European range due to habitat degradation and unnatural elevated mortality. There are less than 1500 breeding pairs accounted for in Europe, and the species is currently catalogued as Critically Endangered in Italy, where the 22 territories of Sicily, represent nearly 95% of the entire Italian population. However, despite national and European conservation concerns, the species currently lacks a specific conservation plan, and no previous attempts to estimate the risk of extinction have been made. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We incorporated the most updated demographic information available to assess the extinction risk of endangered Bonelli's eagle in Italy through a Population Viability Analysis. Using perturbation analyses (sensitivity and elasticity, and a combination of demographic data obtained from an assortment of independent methods, we evaluated which demographic parameters have more influence on the population's fate. We also simulated different scenarios to explore the effects of possible management actions. Our results showed that under the current conditions, Bonelli's eagle is expected to become extinct in Italy in less than 50 years. Stand-alone juvenile mortality was the most critical demographic parameter with the strongest influence on population persistence with respect to other demographic parameters. Measures aimed at either decreasing juvenile mortality, adult mortality or decreasing both juvenile and adult mortality resulted in equivalent net positive effects on population persistence (population growth rate λ>1. In contrast, changes aimed at increasing breeding success had limited positive effects on demographic trends. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our PVA provides essential information to direct the decision-making process and exposes gaps in our previous knowledge. To ensure the long-term persistence of the species

  13. Testing decision rules for categorizing species' extinction risk to help develop quantitative listing criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Tracey J; Taylor, Barbara L; Thompson, Grant G; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Ralls, Katherine; Runge, Michael C; Merrick, Richard

    2013-08-01

    Lack of guidance for interpreting the definitions of endangered and threatened in the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has resulted in case-by-case decision making leaving the process vulnerable to being considered arbitrary or capricious. Adopting quantitative decision rules would remedy this but requires the agency to specify the relative urgency concerning extinction events over time, cutoff risk values corresponding to different levels of protection, and the importance given to different types of listing errors. We tested the performance of 3 sets of decision rules that use alternative functions for weighting the relative urgency of future extinction events: a threshold rule set, which uses a decision rule of x% probability of extinction over y years; a concave rule set, where the relative importance of future extinction events declines exponentially over time; and a shoulder rule set that uses a sigmoid shape function, where relative importance declines slowly at first and then more rapidly. We obtained decision cutoffs by interviewing several biologists and then emulated the listing process with simulations that covered a range of extinction risks typical of ESA listing decisions. We evaluated performance of the decision rules under different data quantities and qualities on the basis of the relative importance of misclassification errors. Although there was little difference between the performance of alternative decision rules for correct listings, the distribution of misclassifications differed depending on the function used. Misclassifications for the threshold and concave listing criteria resulted in more overprotection errors, particularly as uncertainty increased, whereas errors for the shoulder listing criteria were more symmetrical. We developed and tested the framework for quantitative decision rules for listing species under the U.S. ESA. If policy values can be agreed on, use of this framework would improve the implementation of the ESA by

  14. Structural complexity, movement bias, and metapopulation extinction risk in dendritic ecological networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2011-01-01

    Spatial complexity in metacommunities can be separated into 3 main components: size (i.e., number of habitat patches), spatial arrangement of habitat patches (network topology), and diversity of habitat patch types. Much attention has been paid to lattice-type networks, such as patch-based metapopulations, but interest in understanding ecological networks of alternative geometries is building. Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) include some increasingly threatened ecological systems, such as caves and streams. The restrictive architecture of dendritic ecological networks might have overriding implications for species persistence. I used a modeling approach to investigate how number and spatial arrangement of habitat patches influence metapopulation extinction risk in 2 DENs of different size and topology. Metapopulation persistence was higher in larger networks, but this relationship was mediated by network topology and the dispersal pathways used to navigate the network. Larger networks, especially those with greater topological complexity, generally had lower extinction risk than smaller and less-complex networks, but dispersal bias and magnitude affected the shape of this relationship. Applying these general results to real systems will require empirical data on the movement behavior of organisms and will improve our understanding of the implications of network complexity on population and community patterns and processes.

  15. The effects of habitat fragmentation on extinction risk: Mechanisms and synthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David H. Reed

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Across the globe, much current research reflects concerns over the effect of habitat fragmentation on the viability of species and populations. This is an immediate and important concern for the Kingdom of Thailand, where decisions about land use are at a critical juncture. Thailand is in danger of losing species that play a special role in Thai culture and history such as the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus and the tiger (Panthera tigris. We provide a selective review and synthesis of the effects of habitat fragmentation on extinction risk. Our emphasis is on objectives, causal mechanisms, and the validity of some of the arguments that have been made in the debate. Heuristic models are explored to elucidate mechanisms that may affect populations in fragmented landscapes and we point out gaps in our knowledge of this important and complicated question. Our synthesis of the current evidence suggests that fragmenting landscapes usually increases the risk of extinction, especially as the isolation of patches increases or the size of patches decreases. The Kingdom of Thailand, and other countries facing similar circumstances, should seek to connect isolated patches of habitat in order to better protect their remaining biodiversity.

  16. The relative effectiveness of extinction and counter-conditioning in diminishing children's fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newall, Carol; Watson, Tiffany; Grant, Kerry-Ann; Richardson, Rick

    2017-08-01

    Two behavioural strategies for reducing learned fear are extinction and counter-conditioning, and in this study we compared the relative effectiveness of the two procedures at diminishing fear in children. Seventy-three children aged 7-12 years old (M = 9.30, SD = 1.62) were exposed to pictures of two novel animals on a computer screen during the fear acquisition phase. One of these animals was paired with a picture of a scared human face (CS+) while the other was not (CS-). The children were then randomly assigned to one of three conditions: counter-conditioning (animal paired with a happy face), extinction (animal without scared face), or control (no fear reduction procedure). Changes in fear beliefs and behavioural avoidance of the animal were measured. Counter-conditioning was more effective at reducing fear to the CS + than extinction. The findings are discussed in terms of implications for behavioural treatments of childhood anxiety disorders. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. The centrality of fear extinction in linking risk factors to PTSD : A narrative review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuj, Daniel V; Palmer, Matthew A; Lommen, Miriam; Felmingham, Kim L

    2016-01-01

    Recent prospective studies in emergency services have identified impaired fear extinction learning and memory to be a significant predictor of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), complementing a wealth of cross-sectional evidence of extinction deficits associated with the disorder. Additional

  18. Does litter size variation affect models of terrestrial carnivore extinction risk and management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish-Nelson

    Full Text Available Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores.We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species - the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used.These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes.

  19. Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joppa, Lucas N; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steve P; Akçakaya, H Resit; Moat, Justin F; Böhm, Monika; Holland, Robert A; Newton, Adrian; Polidoro, Beth; Hughes, Adrian

    2016-04-01

    In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species' distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11-13% for all species combined (14-15% for mammals, 7-8% for birds, and 12-15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  20. Toward quantification of the impact of 21st-century deforestation on the extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tracewski, Łukasz; Butchart, Stuart H M; Di Marco, Moreno; Ficetola, Gentile F; Rondinini, Carlo; Symes, Andy; Wheatley, Hannah; Beresford, Alison E; Buchanan, Graeme M

    2016-10-01

    Conservation actions need to be prioritized, often taking into account species' extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted, objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk. Assessments based on data collected in the field are the best option, but the field data to base these on are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can be used in place of field data to inform assessments. Forests are perhaps the best-studied land-cover type for use of remote-sensing data. Using an open-access 30-m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, we assessed the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest-dependent amphibians, birds, and mammals worldwide. For 16 species, forest loss resulted in an elevated extinction risk under red-list criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number increased to 23 when data-deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information for evaluation) were included. Under red-list criterion B2, 484 species (855 when data-deficient species were included) were considered at elevated extinction risk, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. The proportion of species of conservation concern would increase by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds, and 24.7% for mammals if our suggested uplistings are accepted. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia are hotspots for these species. Our results illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction-risk assessment and measurement of progress toward international environmental agreement targets. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. On the relative contributions of positive reinforcement and escape extinction in the treatment of food refusal.

    OpenAIRE

    Piazza, Cathleen C; Patel, Meeta R; Gulotta, Charles S; Sevin, Bari M; Layer, Stacy A

    2003-01-01

    We compared the effects of positive reinforcement alone, escape extinction alone, and positive reinforcement with escape extinction in the treatment of the food and fluid refusal of 4 children who had been diagnosed with a pediatric feeding disorder. Consumption did not increase when positive reinforcement was implemented alone. By contrast, consumption increased for all participants when escape extinction was implemented, independent of the presence or absence of positive reinforcement. Howe...

  2. On the relative contributions of positive reinforcement and escape extinction in the treatment of food refusal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazza, Cathleen C; Patel, Meeta R; Gulotta, Charles S; Sevin, Bari M; Layer, Stacy A

    2003-01-01

    We compared the effects of positive reinforcement alone, escape extinction alone, and positive reinforcement with escape extinction in the treatment of the food and fluid refusal of 4 children who had been diagnosed with a pediatric feeding disorder. Consumption did not increase when positive reinforcement was implemented alone. By contrast, consumption increased for all participants when escape extinction was implemented, independent of the presence or absence of positive reinforcement. However, the addition of positive reinforcement to escape extinction was associated with beneficial effects (e.g., greater decreases in negative vocalizations and inappropriate behavior) for some participants.

  3. Direction of attention bias to threat relates to differences in fear acquisition and extinction in anxious children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Allison M; Kershaw, Rachel

    2015-01-01

    Anxious children show attention biases towards and away from threat stimuli. Moreover, threat avoidance compared to vigilance predicts a poorer outcome from exposure-based treatments, such as cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT), yet the mechanisms underlying this differential response are unclear. Pavlovian fear conditioning is a widely accepted theory to explain the acquisition and extinction of fear, including exposure-based treatments, such as CBT. In typical fear conditioning experiments, anxious children have shown larger physiological responses to an aversive unconditional stimulus (i.e., US on CS+ trials) and to non-reinforced stimuli (CS-) during fear acquisition and to both CSs during fear extinction compared to non-anxious peers. This study examined whether threat avoidance compared to threat vigilance was related to differences in fear acquisition and extinction in anxious children. Thirty-four clinically-anxious children completed a visual probe task including angry-neutral face pairs to determine the direction of threat attention bias as well as a discriminant conditioning and extinction task in which a geometric shape CS+ was paired with an aversive tone US, while the CS- geometric shape was always presented alone during acquisition trials. Both CSs were presented alone during extinction trials. Fear acquisition and extinction were indexed by skin conductance responses (SCR) and subjective measures. Children were classified as threat vigilant (N = 18) and threat avoidant (n = 16) based on the direction of threat attention bias on the visual probe task. During acquisition, threat avoidant relative to threat vigilant anxious children displayed larger orienting SCRs to both CSs during the first block of trials and larger third interval SCRs to the US on CS+ trials as well as on CS- trials. During extinction, threat avoidant anxious children showed delayed extinction of SCRs to both the CS+ and CS- and reported higher subjective anxiety ratings after

  4. Cocaine Self-Administration Alters the Relative Effectiveness of Multiple Memory Systems during Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriele, Amanda; Setlow, Barry; Packard, Mark G.

    2009-01-01

    Rats were trained to run a straight-alley maze for an oral cocaine or sucrose vehicle solution reward, followed by either response or latent extinction training procedures that engage neuroanatomically dissociable "habit" and "cognitive" memory systems, respectively. In the response extinction condition, rats performed a runway approach response…

  5. Negative appraisals and fear extinction are independently related to PTSD symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuj, Daniel V; Palmer, Matthew A; Gray, Kate E; Hsu, Chia-Ming K; Nicholson, Emma L; Malhi, Gin S; Bryant, Richard A; Felmingham, Kim L

    2017-08-01

    Considerable research has revealed impaired fear extinction to be a significant predictor of PTSD. Fear extinction is also considered the primary mechanism of exposure therapy, and a critical factor in PTSD recovery. The cognitive theory of PTSD proposes that symptoms persist due to excessive negative appraisals about the trauma and its sequelae. Research has not yet examined the relationship between fear extinction and negative appraisals in PTSD. A cross-sectional sample of participants with PTSD (n =21), and trauma-exposed controls (n =33) underwent a standardized differential fear conditioning and extinction paradigm, with skin conductance response (SCR) amplitude serving as the index of conditioned responses. The Posttraumatic Cognitions Inventory (PTCI) was used to index catastrophic negative appraisals. Participants with PTSD demonstrated a slower decrease in overall SCR responses during extinction and greater negative appraisals compared to the group. A moderation analysis revealed that both negative trauma-relevant appraisals and fear extinction learning were independently associated with PTSD symptoms, but there was no moderation interaction. The current study was limited by a modest sample size, leading to the inclusion of participants with subclinical PTSD symptoms. Further, the current study only assessed fear extinction learning; including a second day extinction recall task may show alternative effects. These findings indicate that negative appraisals and fear extinction did not interact, but had independent relationships with PTSD symptoms. Here we show for the first time in an experimental framework that negative appraisals and fear extinction play separate roles in PTSD symptoms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. The relation between carbon monoxide emission and visual extinction in cloud L134

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tucker, K.D.; Dickman, R.L.; Encrenaz, P.J.; Kutner, M.L.

    1976-01-01

    Emission from the J=1→0 transition of carbon monoxide has been mapped over an area of 40' x 55' in cloud L134, and visual extinctions over the entire cloud have been obtained by means of star counts. Line intensities of > or =2 K are observable down to an extinction level of about one magnitude. From observations of the J=1→0 transition of the 13 CO isotopic species at 18 locations in the cloud, we have found a linear correlation between the local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) column densities of 13 CO and magnitudes of visual extinction

  7. Relating life-history traits, environmental constraints and local extinctions in river fish

    OpenAIRE

    Bergerot, B.; Hugueny, Bernard; Belliard, J.

    2015-01-01

    The life histories of freshwater fish are widely studied because they represent fundamental determinants of population performances. However, a gap remains in our understanding of how species traits may predispose species to extinction in a changing environment. In this study, based on a large data set provided by the French National Agency for Water and Aquatic Environment (325 sites), we analysed factors that explain the probability of local extinction in 40 freshwater species across French...

  8. Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boakes, Elizabeth H; Isaac, Nicholas J B; Fuller, Richard A; Mace, Georgina M; McGowan, Philip J K

    2018-02-01

    Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species' distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species' geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point-locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo-Malaya into equal-area half-degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human-dominated landscapes. In Indo-Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human-dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species' ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species' distribution most vulnerable to threat. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

  9. Comprehensive Red List assessment reveals exceptionally high extinction risk to Madagascar palms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mijoro Rakotoarinivo

    Full Text Available The establishment of baseline IUCN Red List assessments for plants is a crucial step in conservation planning. Nowhere is this more important than in biodiversity hotspots that are subject to significant anthropogenic pressures, such as Madagascar. Here, all Madagascar palm species are assessed using the IUCN Red List categories and criteria, version 3.1. Our results indicate that 83% of the 192 endemic species are threatened, nearly four times the proportion estimated for plants globally and exceeding estimates for all other comprehensively evaluated plant groups in Madagascar. Compared with a previous assessment in 1995, the number of Endangered and Critically Endangered species has substantially increased, due to the discovery of 28 new species since 1995, most of which are highly threatened. The conservation status of most species included in both the 1995 and the current assessments has not changed. Where change occurred, more species have moved to lower threat categories than to higher categories, because of improved knowledge of species and their distributions, rather than a decrease in extinction risk. However, some cases of genuine deterioration in conservation status were also identified. Palms in Madagascar are primarily threatened by habitat loss due to agriculture and biological resource use through direct exploitation or collateral damage. The recent extension of Madagascar's protected area network is highly beneficial for palms, substantially increasing the number of threatened species populations included within reserves. Notably, three of the eight most important protected areas for palms are newly designated. However, 28 threatened and data deficient species are not protected by the expanded network, including some Critically Endangered species. Moreover, many species occurring in protected areas are still threatened, indicating that threatening processes persist even in reserves. Definitive implementation of the new protected

  10. Comprehensive Red List assessment reveals exceptionally high extinction risk to Madagascar palms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakotoarinivo, Mijoro; Dransfield, John; Bachman, Steven P; Moat, Justin; Baker, William J

    2014-01-01

    The establishment of baseline IUCN Red List assessments for plants is a crucial step in conservation planning. Nowhere is this more important than in biodiversity hotspots that are subject to significant anthropogenic pressures, such as Madagascar. Here, all Madagascar palm species are assessed using the IUCN Red List categories and criteria, version 3.1. Our results indicate that 83% of the 192 endemic species are threatened, nearly four times the proportion estimated for plants globally and exceeding estimates for all other comprehensively evaluated plant groups in Madagascar. Compared with a previous assessment in 1995, the number of Endangered and Critically Endangered species has substantially increased, due to the discovery of 28 new species since 1995, most of which are highly threatened. The conservation status of most species included in both the 1995 and the current assessments has not changed. Where change occurred, more species have moved to lower threat categories than to higher categories, because of improved knowledge of species and their distributions, rather than a decrease in extinction risk. However, some cases of genuine deterioration in conservation status were also identified. Palms in Madagascar are primarily threatened by habitat loss due to agriculture and biological resource use through direct exploitation or collateral damage. The recent extension of Madagascar's protected area network is highly beneficial for palms, substantially increasing the number of threatened species populations included within reserves. Notably, three of the eight most important protected areas for palms are newly designated. However, 28 threatened and data deficient species are not protected by the expanded network, including some Critically Endangered species. Moreover, many species occurring in protected areas are still threatened, indicating that threatening processes persist even in reserves. Definitive implementation of the new protected areas combined with

  11. Timing, tempo and paleoenvironmental influence of Deccan volcanism relative to the KT extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adatte, Thierry; Keller, Gerta; Schoene, Blair; Khadri, Syed

    2015-04-01

    Deccan Traps erupted in three main phases with 6% total Deccan volume in phase-1 (base C30n), 80% in phase-2 (C29r) and 14% in phase-3 (C29n). Recent studies indicate that the bulk (80%) of Deccan trap eruptions (Phase-2) occurred over a relatively short time interval in magnetic polarity C29r (Chenet et al., 2008). Moreover, U-Pb zircon geochronology shows that the main Phase 2 began 250 ka before the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) mass extinction, suggesting a cause-and-effect relationship (Blair et al., 2015). In India a strong floral response is observed as a direct consequence of volcanic phase-2. In Lameta (infratrappean) sediments preceding the volcanic eruptions, palynoflora are dominated by gymnosperms and angiosperms (Samant and Mohabey, 2005). Shortly after the onset of Deccan phase-2, this floral association was decimated as indicated by a sharp decrease in pollen and spores coupled with the appearance of fungi, which mark increasing stress conditions apparently as a direct result of volcanic activity. The inter-trappean sediments corresponding to the Phases 2 and 3 are characterized by the highest alteration CIA index values suggesting increased acid rains due to SO2 emissions. Closer to the eruption center, the lava flows are generally separated by red weathered horizons known as red boles, marking a quiescent period between two basalt flows. Red boles consist mainly of red silty clays characterized by concentrations of immobile elements such as Al and Fe3+ ions, which provide indirect evidence of a primitive form of paleo-laterite that probably developed during the short periods of weathering between eruptions. There are at least 15 thick red bole layers in C29r below the KT boundary, and all were deposited in phase-2 volcanic eruptions that occurred over a time span of about 250 ky. These short duration exposures are reflected in the mineralogical and geochemical data that indicate rapid weathering (high CIA) but arid conditions. The arid conditions can

  12. The relativity of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, R.H.

    1987-01-01

    The transport of radioactive material has long been a subject of emotive controversy. For a realistic assessment of the risks involved, however, they must be seen in the context of the transport of any hazardous cargoes, especially those which are energy-producing products

  13. Decline of shortjaw cisco in Lake Superior: the role of overfishing and risk of extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronte, Charles R.; Hoff, Michael H.; Gorman, Owen T.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; Todd, Thomas N.

    2010-01-01

    Recent reviews have further documented the decline of the shortjaw cisco Coregonus zenithicus in Lake Superior. This fish was the most abundant deepwater cisco species in Lake Superior in the early 1920s but presently makes up less than 1% of all deepwater ciscoes (i.e., including shortjaw cisco, bloater C. hoyi, and kiyi C. kiyi) captured in biological surveys. Directed overfishing of deepwater cisco species during the 1930s and again during the mid-1960s and 1970s has been suggested as the cause of the shortjaw cisco's demise. In this paper, we re-examined the overfishing hypothesis by using historical and recent survey data to estimate the proportion of the historical commercial fishery landings that comprised shortjaw ciscoes. We developed time series of estimated harvest and relative abundance for all statistical districts in Michigan waters of Lake Superior during 1929–1996, for which aggregate catch and effort data were available but not previously examined. The spatial distribution of the fishery and the relationships of catch to fishing effort were examined for evidence of overfishing. Our analysis suggested that directed overfishing was probably not the cause of shortjaw cisco demise, as this species appeared to be declining in all statistical districts regardless of the intensity of the fishery. A count-based population viability analysis indicated that quasi-extinction of the shortjaw cisco is highly probable in the near future. We propose an alternative hypothesis based on the decline of Lake Superior's keystone predator, the lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, which resulted in an expansion of the population of its principal prey, the cisco C. artedi, due to release from predation pressure. Competitive or predation interactions between the cisco and shortjaw cisco may be more likely explanations for the demise of the latter species.

  14. Temporal factors in the extinction of fear in inbred mouse strains differing in extinction efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacPherson, Kathryn; Whittle, Nigel; Camp, Marguerite; Gunduz-Cinar, Ozge; Singewald, Nicolas; Holmes, Andrew

    2013-07-05

    Various neuropsychiatric conditions, including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), are characterized by deficient fear extinction, but individuals differ greatly in risk for these. While there is growing evidence that fear extinction is influenced by certain procedural variables, it is unclear how these influences might vary across individuals and subpopulations. To model individual differences in fear extinction, prior studies identified a strain of inbred mouse, 129S1/SvImJ (S1), which exhibits a profound deficit in fear extinction, as compared to other inbred strains, such as C57BL/6J (B6). Here, we assessed the effects of procedural variables on the impaired extinction phenotype of the S1 strain and, by comparison, the extinction-intact B6 strain. The variables studied were 1) the interval between conditioning and extinction, 2) the interval between cues during extinction training, 3) single-cue exposure before extinction training, and 4) extinction of a second-order conditioned cue. Conducting extinction training soon after ('immediately') conditioning attenuated fear retrieval in S1 mice and impaired extinction in B6 mice. Spacing cue presentations with long inter-trial intervals during extinction training augmented fear in S1 and B6 mice. The effect of spacing was lost with one-trial fear conditioning in B6, but not S1 mice. A single exposure to a conditioned cue before extinction training did not alter extinction retrieval, either in B6 or S1 mice. Both the S1 and B6 strains exhibited robust second-order fear conditioning, in which a cue associated with footshock was sufficient to serve as a conditioned exciter to condition a fear association to a second cue. B6 mice extinguished the fear response to the second-order conditioned cue, but S1 mice failed to do so. These data provide further evidence that fear extinction is strongly influenced by multiple procedural variables and is so in a highly strain-dependent manner. This suggests that the efficacy of

  15. Extinction with multiple excitors

    OpenAIRE

    McConnell, Bridget L.; Miguez, Gonzalo; Miller, Ralph R.

    2013-01-01

    Four conditioned suppression experiments with rats, using an ABC renewal design, investigated the effects of compounding the target conditioned excitor with additional, nontarget conditioned excitors during extinction. Experiment 1 showed stronger extinction, as evidenced by less renewal, when the target excitor was extinguished in compound with a second excitor, relative to when it was extinguished with associatively neutral stimuli. Critically, this deepened extinction effect was attenuated...

  16. Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron Macneil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Ohman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

    2011-04-01

    With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  17. Trauma exposure relates to heightened stress, altered amygdala morphology and deficient extinction learning: Implications for psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacciaglia, Raffaele; Nees, Frauke; Grimm, Oliver; Ridder, Stephanie; Pohlack, Sebastian T; Diener, Slawomira J; Liebscher, Claudia; Flor, Herta

    2017-02-01

    Stress exposure causes a structural reorganization in neurons of the amygdala. In particular, animal models have repeatedly shown that both acute and chronic stress induce neuronal hypertrophy and volumetric increase in the lateral and basolateral nuclei of amygdala. These effects are visible on the behavioral level, where stress enhances anxiety behaviors and provokes greater fear learning. We assessed stress and anxiety levels in a group of 18 healthy human trauma-exposed individuals (TR group) compared to 18 non-exposed matched controls (HC group), and related these measurements to amygdala volume. Traumas included unexpected adverse experiences such as vehicle accidents or sudden loss of a loved one. As a measure of aversive learning, we implemented a cued fear conditioning paradigm. Additionally, to provide a biological marker of chronic stress, we measured the sensitivity of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis using a dexamethasone suppression test. Compared to the HC, the TR group showed significantly higher levels of chronic stress, current stress and trait anxiety, as well as increased volume of the left amygdala. Specifically, we observed a focal enlargement in its lateral portion, in line with previous animal data. Compared to HC, the TR group also showed enhanced late acquisition of conditioned fear and deficient extinction learning, as well as salivary cortisol hypo-suppression to dexamethasone. Left amygdala volumes positively correlated with suppressed morning salivary cortisol. Our results indicate differences in trauma-exposed individuals which resemble those previously reported in animals exposed to stress and in patients with post-traumatic stress disorder and depression. These data provide new insights into the mechanisms through which traumatic stress might prompt vulnerability for psychopathology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Quantifying the extent of North American mammal extinction relative to the pre-anthropogenic baseline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco, Marc A; Barnosky, Anthony D; Graham, Russell W

    2009-12-16

    Earth has experienced five major extinction events in the past 450 million years. Many scientists suggest we are now witnessing a sixth, driven by human impacts. However, it has been difficult to quantify the real extent of the current extinction episode, either for a given taxonomic group at the continental scale or for the worldwide biota, largely because comparisons of pre-anthropogenic and anthropogenic biodiversity baselines have been unavailable. Here, we compute those baselines for mammals of temperate North America, using a sampling-standardized rich fossil record to reconstruct species-area relationships for a series of time slices ranging from 30 million to 500 years ago. We show that shortly after humans first arrived in North America, mammalian diversity dropped to become at least 15%-42% too low compared to the "normal" diversity baseline that had existed for millions of years. While the Holocene reduction in North American mammal diversity has long been recognized qualitatively, our results provide a quantitative measure that clarifies how significant the diversity reduction actually was. If mass extinctions are defined as loss of at least 75% of species on a global scale, our data suggest that North American mammals had already progressed one-fifth to more than halfway (depending on biogeographic province) towards that benchmark, even before industrialized society began to affect them. Data currently are not available to make similar quantitative estimates for other continents, but qualitative declines in Holocene mammal diversity are also widely recognized in South America, Eurasia, and Australia. Extending our methodology to mammals in these areas, as well as to other taxa where possible, would provide a reasonable way to assess the magnitude of global extinction, the biodiversity impact of extinctions of currently threatened species, and the efficacy of conservation efforts into the future.

  19. Quantifying the extent of North American mammal extinction relative to the pre-anthropogenic baseline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc A Carrasco

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Earth has experienced five major extinction events in the past 450 million years. Many scientists suggest we are now witnessing a sixth, driven by human impacts. However, it has been difficult to quantify the real extent of the current extinction episode, either for a given taxonomic group at the continental scale or for the worldwide biota, largely because comparisons of pre-anthropogenic and anthropogenic biodiversity baselines have been unavailable. Here, we compute those baselines for mammals of temperate North America, using a sampling-standardized rich fossil record to reconstruct species-area relationships for a series of time slices ranging from 30 million to 500 years ago. We show that shortly after humans first arrived in North America, mammalian diversity dropped to become at least 15%-42% too low compared to the "normal" diversity baseline that had existed for millions of years. While the Holocene reduction in North American mammal diversity has long been recognized qualitatively, our results provide a quantitative measure that clarifies how significant the diversity reduction actually was. If mass extinctions are defined as loss of at least 75% of species on a global scale, our data suggest that North American mammals had already progressed one-fifth to more than halfway (depending on biogeographic province towards that benchmark, even before industrialized society began to affect them. Data currently are not available to make similar quantitative estimates for other continents, but qualitative declines in Holocene mammal diversity are also widely recognized in South America, Eurasia, and Australia. Extending our methodology to mammals in these areas, as well as to other taxa where possible, would provide a reasonable way to assess the magnitude of global extinction, the biodiversity impact of extinctions of currently threatened species, and the efficacy of conservation efforts into the future.

  20. Pelagic larval duration predicts extinction risk in a freshwater fish clade

    OpenAIRE

    Douglas, Morgan; Keck, Benjamin P.; Ruble, Crystal; Petty, Melissa; Shute, J. R.; Rakes, Patrick; Hulsey, C. Darrin

    2013-01-01

    Pelagic larval duration (PLD) can influence evolutionary processes ranging from dispersal to extinction in aquatic organisms. Using estimates of PLD obtained from species of North American darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae), we demonstrate that this freshwater fish clade exhibits surprising variation in PLD. Comparative analyses provide some evidence that higher stream gradients favour the evolution of shorter PLD. Additionally, similar to patterns in the marine fossil record in which lower ...

  1. Biological Extinction in Earth History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raup, David M.

    1986-03-01

    Virtually all plant and animal species that have ever lived on the earth are extinct. For this reason alone, extinction must play an important role in the evolution of life. The five largest mass extinctions of the past 600 million years are of greatest interest, but there is also a spectrum of smaller events, many of which indicate biological systems in profound stress. Extinction may be episodic at all scales, with relatively long periods of stability alternating with short-lived extinction events. Most extinction episodes are biologically selective, and further analysis of the victims and survivors offers the greatest chance of deducing the proximal causes of extinction. A drop in sea level and climatic change are most frequently invoked to explain mass extinctions, but new theories of collisions with extraterrestrial bodies are gaining favor. Extinction may be constructive in a Darwinian sense or it may only perturb the system by eliminating those organisms that happen to be susceptible to geologically rare stresses.

  2. Biological extinction in earth history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raup, D. M.

    1986-01-01

    Virtually all plant and animal species that have ever lived on the earth are extinct. For this reason alone, extinction must play an important role in the evolution of life. The five largest mass extinctions of the past 600 million years are of greatest interest, but there is also a spectrum of smaller events, many of which indicate biological systems in profound stress. Extinction may be episodic at all scales, with relatively long periods of stability alternating with short-lived extinction events. Most extinction episodes are biologically selective, and further analysis of the victims and survivors offers the greatest chance of deducing the proximal causes of extinction. A drop in sea level and climatic change are most frequently invoked to explain mass extinctions, but new theories of collisions with extraterrestrial bodies are gaining favor. Extinction may be constructive in a Darwinian sense or it may only perturb the system by eliminating those organisms that happen to be susceptible to geologically rare stresses.

  3. Contingency awareness shapes acquisition and extinction of emotional responses in a conditioning model of pain-related fear

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franziska eLabrenz

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available As a fundamental learning process, fear conditioning promotes the formation of associations between predictive cues and biologically-significant signals. In its application to pain, conditioning may provide important insight into mechanisms underlying pain-related fear, although knowledge especially in interoceptive pain paradigms remains scarce. Furthermore, while the influence of contingency awareness on excitatory learning is subject of ongoing debate, its role in pain-related acquisition is poorly understood and essentially unknown regarding extinction as inhibitory learning. Therefore, we addressed the impact of contingency awareness on learned emotional responses to pain- and safety-predictive cues in a combined dataset of two pain-related conditioning studies.In total, 75 healthy participants underwent differential fear acquisition, during which rectal distensions as interoceptive unconditioned stimuli (US were repeatedly paired with a predictive visual cue (conditioned stimulus; CS+ while another cue (CS- was presented unpaired. During extinction, both CS were presented without US. CS valence, indicating learned emotional responses, and CS-US contingencies were assessed on visual analogue scales. Based on an integrative measure of contingency accuracy, a median-split was performed to compare groups with low versus high contingency accuracy regarding learned emotional responses. To investigate predictive value of contingency accuracy, regression analyses were conducted. Highly accurate individuals revealed more pronounced negative emotional responses to CS+ and increased positive responses to CS- when compared to participants with low contingency accuracy. Following extinction, highly accurate individuals had fully extinguished pain-predictive cue properties, while exhibiting persistent positive emotional responses to safety signals. In contrast, individuals with low accuracy revealed equally positive emotional responses to both, CS+ and

  4. Contingency Awareness Shapes Acquisition and Extinction of Emotional Responses in a Conditioning Model of Pain-Related Fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labrenz, Franziska; Icenhour, Adriane; Benson, Sven; Elsenbruch, Sigrid

    2015-01-01

    As a fundamental learning process, fear conditioning promotes the formation of associations between predictive cues and biologically significant signals. In its application to pain, conditioning may provide important insight into mechanisms underlying pain-related fear, although knowledge especially in interoceptive pain paradigms remains scarce. Furthermore, while the influence of contingency awareness on excitatory learning is subject of ongoing debate, its role in pain-related acquisition is poorly understood and essentially unknown regarding extinction as inhibitory learning. Therefore, we addressed the impact of contingency awareness on learned emotional responses to pain- and safety-predictive cues in a combined dataset of two pain-related conditioning studies. In total, 75 healthy participants underwent differential fear acquisition, during which rectal distensions as interoceptive unconditioned stimuli (US) were repeatedly paired with a predictive visual cue (conditioned stimulus; CS(+)) while another cue (CS(-)) was presented unpaired. During extinction, both CS were presented without US. CS valence, indicating learned emotional responses, and CS-US contingencies were assessed on visual analog scales (VAS). Based on an integrative measure of contingency accuracy, a median-split was performed to compare groups with low vs. high contingency accuracy regarding learned emotional responses. To investigate predictive value of contingency accuracy, regression analyses were conducted. Highly accurate individuals revealed more pronounced negative emotional responses to CS(+) and increased positive responses to CS(-) when compared to participants with low contingency accuracy. Following extinction, highly accurate individuals had fully extinguished pain-predictive cue properties, while exhibiting persistent positive emotional responses to safety signals. In contrast, individuals with low accuracy revealed equally positive emotional responses to both, CS(+) and CS

  5. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  6. Rethinking Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Niv, Yael; Daw, Nathaniel; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Extinction serves as the leading theoretical framework and experimental model to describe how learned behaviors diminish through absence of anticipated reinforcement. In the past decade, extinction has moved beyond the realm of associative learning theory and behavioral experimentation in animals and has become a topic of considerable interest in the neuroscience of learning, memory, and emotion. Here, we review research and theories of extinction, both as a learning process and as a behavioral technique, and consider whether traditional understandings warrant a re-examination. We discuss the neurobiology, cognitive factors, and major computational theories, and revisit the predominant view that extinction results in new learning that interferes with expression of the original memory. Additionally, we reconsider the limitations of extinction as a technique to prevent the relapse of maladaptive behavior, and discuss novel approaches, informed by contemporary theoretical advances, that augment traditional extinction methods to target and potentially alter maladaptive memories. PMID:26447572

  7. Rethinking Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Niv, Yael; Daw, Nathaniel; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Extinction serves as the leading theoretical framework and experimental model to describe how learned behaviors diminish through absence of anticipated reinforcement. In the past decade, extinction has moved beyond the realm of associative learning theory and behavioral experimentation in animals and has become a topic of considerable interest in the neuroscience of learning, memory, and emotion. Here, we review research and theories of extinction, both as a learning process and as a behavior...

  8. Environmental effects of large impacts on the earth; relation to extinction mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okeefe, John D.; Ahrens, Thomas J.; Koschny, Detlef

    1988-01-01

    Since Alvarez et al., discovered a worldwide approx. cm-thick layer of fine sediments laden with platinum group elements in approximately chondritic proportions exactly at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (C-T) boundary, and proposed bolide-impact as triggering mass extinctions, many have studied this hypothesis and the layer itself with its associated spherules and shocked quartz. At issue is whether the mass extinctions, and this horizon has an impact versus volcanic origin. A critical feature of the Alvarez hypothesis is the suggestion that the bolide or possibly a shower of objects delivered to the earth approx. 0.6 x 10 to the 18th power g of material which resulted in aerosol-sized ejecta such that global insolation was drastically reduced for significant periods. Such an event would lower temperatures on continents and halt photosynthesis in the upper 200 m of th eocean. The latter would strangle the marine food chain and thus produce the major marine faunal extinctions which mark the C-T boundary. Crucial issues examined include: What are the dynamics of atmospheric flow occurring upon impact of a large bolide with the earth; What is the size distributions of the very fine impact ejecta and how do these compare to the models of ejecta which are used to model the earth's radiative thermal balance. The flow field due to passage of a 10 km diameter bolide through an exponential atmosphere and the interaction of the gas flow and bolide with the solid ear was calculated. The CO2 released upon impact onto shallow marine carbonate sections was modeled and found that the mass of CO2 released exceeds the present 10 to the 18th power g CO2 budget of the earth's atmosphere by several times. Using the calculations of Kasting and Toon it was found that to compute the temperature rise of the earth's surface as a function of CO2 content, it was found that sudden and prolonged global increases are induced from impact of 20 to 50 km radius projectiles and propose that sudden

  9. Extinction of NGC 7027

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seaton, M.J.

    1979-01-01

    Emission intensities of recombination lines in hydrogenic spectra are known accurately relative to intensities in the free-free radio continuum. For NGC 7027 intensities have been measured for the radio continuum and for H I and He II lines in the wavelength range from lambda = 2.17 μm to lambda = 1640 A: comparison with the calculated emission intensities gives the extinction. Determinations of the standard interstellar extinction function are critically discussed. The extinction deduced for the total radiation from NGC 7027 has a dependence on wavelength for 6563 A >= lambda >= 1640 A which is in excellent agreement with the adopted standard results, but there are some anomalies for longer wavelengths and for the ratio of total to selective extinction. These can be explained using a model which allows for a local contribution to the extinction which is variable over the surface of the nebula. (author)

  10. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

  11. Different Histories, Different Destinies‒Impact of Evolutionary History and Population Genetic Structure on Extinction Risk of the Adriatic Spined Loaches (Genus Cobitis; Cypriniformes, Actinopterygii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Buj

    Full Text Available The region of Balkans is often considered as an ichthyologic "hot spot", with a great number of species and high portion of endemics living in fresh waters in a relatively small area. The Adriatic watershed in Croatia and Herzegovina is inhabited by six spined loach species (genus Cobitis whose extinction risk estimations were based solely on their extent of occurrence (and/or area of occupancy and its fragmentation, and conservation proposals do not consider diversity below species level. In this investigation we employed molecular genetic methods to describe present genetic structure of the Adriatic spined loaches and reveal their demographic history. The divergence of the Adriatic lineages inside the genus Cobitis started in Miocene and lasted until Pleistocene epoch. Geological events responsible for shaping recent diversity of spined loaches in the Adriatic basin are: the Dinarid Mountains upwelling, the evolution of Dinaric Lake system, local tectonic activity, river connections during glaciations and differences in sea level. Even though all the investigated species inhabit karstic rivers located in the same geographic area and that were subject of similar geological events, the results obtained reveal great differences in their genetic diversity and structure and point out the necessity of different conservation measures to ensure their future viability. High level of genetic polymorphism is characteristic for species located more to the south. Two species comprised of more than one population have completely different intraspecific structure; populations of C. illyrica are genetically distinct and represent separate evolutionary significant units, whereas intraspecific structure of C. narentana corresponds to metapopulational pattern. Without population genetic data, evolutionary significant units could be easily misidentified. Furthermore, the obtained results affirm that population genetic measurements are able to detect differences

  12. Is IR going extinct?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Audra

    2016-01-01

    A global extinction crisis may threaten the survival of most existing life forms. Influential discourses of ‘existential risk’ suggest that human extinction is a real possibility, while several decades of evidence from conservation biology suggests that the Earth may be entering a ‘sixth mass extinction event’. These conditions threaten the possibilities of survival and security that are central to most branches of International Relations. However, this discipline lacks a framework for addressing (mass) extinction. From notions of ‘nuclear winter’ and ‘omnicide’ to contemporary discourses on catastrophe, International Relations thinking has treated extinction as a superlative of death. This is a profound category mistake: extinction needs to be understood not in the ontic terms of life and death, but rather in the ontological context of be(com)ing and negation. Drawing on the work of theorists of the ‘inhuman’ such as Quentin Meillassoux, Claire Colebrook, Ray Brassier, Jean-Francois Lyotard and Nigel Clark, this article provides a pathway for thinking beyond existing horizons of survival and imagines a profound transformation of International Relations. Specifically, it outlines a mode of cosmopolitics that responds to the element of the inhuman and the forces of extinction. Rather than capitulating to narratives of tragedy, this cosmopolitics would make it possible to think beyond the restrictions of existing norms of ‘humanity’ to embrace an ethics of gratitude and to welcome the possibility of new worlds, even in the face of finitude.

  13. Employment relations, flexibility and risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Carsten Strøby

    Employment relations literature often distinguishes between social democratic/corporatist models of employment relations and liberal models of employment relations as they are seen as opposite or at least different ways of organizing labor markets. They are often characterized as having very...... different risk profiles in terms of relationships between employees, employers, and the state. Low levels of labor market regulation very often characterize the liberal models of employment relations as we know them from, for instance, the USA and the UK. This means that employment conditions are very often...... insecure and that the burden of unemployment risk mostly lies with the employees rather than the employer. Corporatist – or social democratic – employment relations models are, in contrast to the liberal models, often characterized by stricter regulation of the labor market and by high standards...

  14. Time to extinction of bird populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sæther, B-E.; Engen, S.; Møller, A.P.; Visser, M.E.; Matthysen, E.; Fiedler, W.; Lambrechts, M.M.; Becker, P.H.; Brommer, J.E.; Dickinson, J.; du Feu, C.; Gehlbach, F.R.; Merilä, J.; Rendell, W.; Robertson, R.J.; Thomson, D.L.; Török, J.

    2005-01-01

    The risk of extinction of populations has not previously been empirically related to parameters characterizing their population dynamics. To analyze this relationship, we simulated how the distribution of population dynamical characters changed as a function of time, in both the remaining and the

  15. Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

    2015-01-01

    Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

  16. Elephants (and extinct relatives) as earth-movers and ecosystem engineers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Gary

    2012-07-01

    Modern African elephants affect habitats and ecosystems in significant ways. They push over trees to feed on upper branches and often peel large sections of bark to eat. These destructive habits sometimes transform woody vegetation into grasslands. Systems of elephant trails may be used and re-used for centuries, and create incised features that extend for many kilometers on migration routes. Elephants, digging in search of water or mineral sediments, may remove several cubic meters of sediments in each excavation. Wallowing elephants may remove up to a cubic meter of pond sediments each time they visit water sources. Accumulations of elephant dung on frequented land surfaces may be over 2 kg per square meter. Elephant trampling, digging, and dust-bathing may reverse stratigraphy at archeological localities. This paper summarizes these types of effects on biotic, geomorphic, and paleontological features in modern-day landscapes, and also describes several fossil sites that indicate extinct proboscideans had very similar effects, such as major sediment disturbances.

  17. Relation between extinction and assisted colonization of plants in the arctic-alpine and boreal regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pykälä, Juha

    2017-06-01

    Assisted colonization of vascular plants is considered by many ecologists an important tool to preserve biodiversity threatened by climate change. I argue that assisted colonization may have negative consequences in arctic-alpine and boreal regions. The observed slow movement of plants toward the north has been an argument for assisted colonization. However, these range shifts may be slow because for many plants microclimatic warming (ignored by advocates of assisted colonization) has been smaller than macroclimatic warming. Arctic-alpine and boreal plants may have limited possibilities to disperse farther north or to higher elevations. I suggest that arctic-alpine species are more likely to be driven to extinction because of competitive exclusion by southern species than by increasing temperatures. If so, the future existence of arctic-alpine and boreal flora may depend on delaying or preventing the migration of plants toward the north to allow northern species to evolve to survive in a warmer climate. In the arctic-alpine region, preventing the dispersal of trees and shrubs may be the most important method to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. The purported conservation benefits of assisted colonization should not be used to promote the migration of invasive species by forestry. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. Long-term maintenance of immediate or delayed extinction is determined by the extinction-test interval

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Justin S.; Escobar, Martha; Kimble, Whitney L.

    2010-01-01

    Short acquisition-extinction intervals (immediate extinction) can lead to either more or less spontaneous recovery than long acquisition-extinction intervals (delayed extinction). Using rat subjects, we observed less spontaneous recovery following immediate than delayed extinction (Experiment 1). However, this was the case only if a relatively long extinction-test interval was used; a relatively short extinction-test interval yielded the opposite result (Experiment 2). Previous data appear co...

  19. Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, P.F.; Sorci, G.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Boulinier, T.

    2003-01-01

    Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

  20. Evolution: Postponing Extinction by Polyandry

    OpenAIRE

    Wade, Michael J.

    2010-01-01

    Sex-ratio meiotic drive occurs when males produce a predominance of X-chromosome bearing sperm and an inordinate number of daughters. A driving X causes highly female-biased sex ratios and the risk of extinction. Polyandry can rescue a population from extinction.

  1. POST-RETRIEVAL EXTINCTION ATTENUATES ALCOHOL CUE REACTIVITY IN RATS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cofresí, Roberto U.; Lewis, Suzanne M.; Chaudhri, Nadia; Lee, Hongjoo J.; Monfils, Marie-H.; Gonzales, Rueben A.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND Conditioned responses to alcohol-associated cues can hinder recovery from alcohol use disorder (AUD). Cue exposure (extinction) therapy (CET) can reduce reactivity to alcohol cues, but its efficacy is limited by phenomena such as spontaneous recovery and reinstatement that can cause a return of conditioned responding after extinction. Using a preclinical model of alcohol cue reactivity in rats, we evaluated whether the efficacy of alcohol CET could be improved by conducting CET during the memory reconsolidation window after retrieval of a cue-alcohol association. METHODS Rats were provided with intermittent access to unsweetened alcohol. Rats were then trained to predict alcohol access based on a visual cue. Next, rats were treated with either standard extinction (n=14) or post-retrieval extinction (n=13). Rats were then tested for long-term memory of extinction and susceptibility to spontaneous recovery and reinstatement. RESULTS Despite equivalent extinction, rats treated with post-retrieval extinction exhibited reduced spontaneous recovery and reinstatement relative to rats treated with standard extinction. CONCLUSIONS Post-retrieval CET shows promise for persistently attenuating the risk to relapse posed by alcohol cues in individuals with AUD. PMID:28169439

  2. Analysis of extinction properties as a function of relative humidity using a κ-EC-Mie model in Nanjing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Zhang

    2017-03-01

    coefficient in Nanjing was due to particles in the 0.2–1.0 µm size range. Under dry conditions, the higher mass fraction of particles in the 0.2–1.0 µm size range caused the higher extinction coefficient. An increase in RH led to a significant increase in the extinction coefficient, although the increases differed among the different size segments. For λ = 550 nm, the extinction coefficient from the 0.01–0.2, 0.2–0.5, and 1.0–2.0 µm size ranges increased significantly with the increase in RH, whereas the extinction contributions from the 0.5–1.0 and 2.0–10.0 µm size ranges to the extinction coefficient decreased slightly.

  3. Optimising Extinction of Conditioned Disgust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosman, Renske C.; Borg, Charmaine; de Jong, Peter J.

    2016-01-01

    Maladaptive disgust responses are tenacious and resistant to exposure-based interventions. In a similar vein, laboratory studies have shown that conditioned disgust is relatively insensitive to Conditioned Stimulus (CS)-only extinction procedures. The relatively strong resistance to extinction might

  4. Stress and Fear Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maren, Stephen; Holmes, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Stress has a critical role in the development and expression of many psychiatric disorders, and is a defining feature of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Stress also limits the efficacy of behavioral therapies aimed at limiting pathological fear, such as exposure therapy. Here we examine emerging evidence that stress impairs recovery from trauma by impairing fear extinction, a form of learning thought to underlie the suppression of trauma-related fear memories. We describe the major structural and functional abnormalities in brain regions that are particularly vulnerable to stress, including the amygdala, prefrontal cortex, and hippocampus, which may underlie stress-induced impairments in extinction. We also discuss some of the stress-induced neurochemical and molecular alterations in these brain regions that are associated with extinction deficits, and the potential for targeting these changes to prevent or reverse impaired extinction. A better understanding of the neurobiological basis of stress effects on extinction promises to yield novel approaches to improving therapeutic outcomes for PTSD and other anxiety and trauma-related disorders. PMID:26105142

  5. Interstellar Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Gontcharov, George

    2017-01-01

    This review describes our current understanding of interstellar extinction. This differ substantially from the ideas of the 20th century. With infrared surveys of hundreds of millions of stars over the entire sky, such as 2MASS, SPITZER-IRAC, and WISE, we have looked at the densest and most rarefied regions of the interstellar medium at distances of a few kpc from the sun. Observations at infrared and microwave wavelengths, where the bulk of the interstellar dust absorbs and radiates, have br...

  6. Quantifying the severity of hurricanes on extinction probabilities of a primate population: Insights into "Island" extirpations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ameca y Juárez, Eric I; Ellis, Edward A; Rodríguez-Luna, Ernesto

    2015-07-01

    Long-term studies quantifying impacts of hurricane activity on growth and trajectory of primate populations are rare. Using a 14-year monitored population of Alouatta palliata mexicana as a study system, we developed a modeling framework to assess the relative contribution of hurricane disturbance and two types of human impacts, habitat loss, and hunting, on quasi-extinction risk. We found that the scenario with the highest level of disturbance generated a 21% increase in quasi-extinction risk by 40 years compared to scenarios of intermediate disturbance, and around 67% increase relative to that found in low disturbance scenarios. We also found that the probability of reaching quasi-extinction due to human disturbance alone was below 1% by 40 years, although such scenarios reduced population size by 70%, whereas the risk of quasi-extinction ranged between 3% and 65% for different scenarios of hurricane severity alone, in absence of human impacts. Our analysis moreover found that the quasi-extinction risk driven by hunting and hurricane disturbance was significantly lower than the quasi-extinction risk posed by human-driven habitat loss and hurricane disturbance. These models suggest that hurricane disturbance has the potential to exceed the risk posed by human impacts, and, in particular, to substantially increase the speed of the extinction vortex driven by habitat loss relative to that driven by hunting. Early mitigation of habitat loss constituted the best method for reducing quasi-extinction risk: the earlier habitat loss is halted, the less vulnerable the population becomes to hurricane disturbance. By using a well-studied population of A. p. mexicana, we help understand the demographic impacts that extreme environmental disturbance can trigger on isolated populations of taxa already endangered in other systems where long-term demographic data are not available. For those experiencing heavy anthropogenic pressure and lacking sufficiently evolved coping

  7. Earth history. U-Pb geochronology of the Deccan Traps and relation to the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoene, Blair; Samperton, Kyle M; Eddy, Michael P; Keller, Gerta; Adatte, Thierry; Bowring, Samuel A; Khadri, Syed F R; Gertsch, Brian

    2015-01-09

    The Chicxulub asteroid impact (Mexico) and the eruption of the massive Deccan volcanic province (India) are two proposed causes of the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, which includes the demise of nonavian dinosaurs. Despite widespread acceptance of the impact hypothesis, the lack of a high-resolution eruption timeline for the Deccan basalts has prevented full assessment of their relationship to the mass extinction. Here we apply uranium-lead (U-Pb) zircon geochronology to Deccan rocks and show that the main phase of eruptions initiated ~250,000 years before the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary and that >1.1 million cubic kilometers of basalt erupted in ~750,000 years. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Deccan Traps contributed to the latest Cretaceous environmental change and biologic turnover that culminated in the marine and terrestrial mass extinctions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  8. The extinction of the West African lion: whose responsibility?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nollkaemper, A.

    2014-01-01

    A recently published study showed that the lion in West Africa is now critically endangered and faces extinction. From one angle, this would be just one of the large (though unknown) number of species that has previously faced extinction or has even become extinct. But the risk of extinction of some

  9. An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yalcin, Semra; Leroux, Shawn James

    2018-04-14

    Land-cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981-85 and 2001-05 are correlated with land-cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land-cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land-cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated to heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land-cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction. This article is protected

  10. Impossible Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockell, Charles S.

    2003-03-01

    Every 225 million years the Earth, and all the life on it, completes one revolution around the Milky Way Galaxy. During this remarkable journey, life is influenced by calamitous changes. Comets and asteroids strike the surface of the Earth, stars explode, enormous volcanoes erupt, and, more recently, humans litter the planet with waste. Many animals and plants become extinct during the voyage, but humble microbes, simple creatures made of a single cell, survive this journey. This book takes a tour of the microbial world, from the coldest and deepest places on Earth to the hottest and highest, and witnesses some of the most catastrophic events that life can face. Impossible Extinction tells this remarkable story to the general reader by explaining how microbes have survived on Earth for over three billion years. Charles Cockell received his doctorate from the University of Oxford, and is currently a microbiologist with rhe Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute (SETI), based at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, UK. His research focusses on astrobiology, life in the extremes and the human exploration of Mars. Cockell has been on expeditions to the Arctic, Antarctic, Mongolia, and in 1993 he piloted a modified insect-collecting ultra-light aircraft over the Indonesian rainforests. He is Chair of the Twenty-one Eleven Foundation for Exploration, a charity that supports expeditions that forge links between space exploration and environmentalism.

  11. An UXor among FUors: Extinction-related Brightness Variations of the Young Eruptive Star V582 Aur

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ábrahám, P.; Kóspál, Á.; Kun, M.; Fehér, O.; Zsidi, G.; Acosta-Pulido, J. A.; Carnerero, M. I.; García-Álvarez, D.; Moór, A.; Cseh, B.; Hajdu, G.; Hanyecz, O.; Kelemen, J.; Kriskovics, L.; Marton, G.; Mező, Gy.; Molnár, L.; Ordasi, A.; Rodríguez-Coira, G.; Sárneczky, K.; Sódor, Á.; Szakáts, R.; Szegedi-Elek, E.; Szing, A.; Farkas-Takács, A.; Vida, K.; Vinkó, J.

    2018-01-01

    V582 Aur is an FU Ori-type young eruptive star in outburst since ∼1985. The eruption is currently in a relatively constant plateau phase, with photometric and spectroscopic variability superimposed. Here we will characterize the progenitor of the outbursting object, explore its environment, and analyze the temporal evolution of the eruption. We are particularly interested in the physical origin of the two deep photometric dips, one that occurred in 2012 and one that is ongoing since 2016. We collected archival photographic plates and carried out new optical, infrared, and millimeter-wave photometric and spectroscopic observations between 2010 and 2018, with a high sampling rate during the current minimum. Besides analyzing the color changes during fading, we compiled multiepoch spectral energy distributions and fitted them with a simple accretion disk model. Based on pre-outburst data and a millimeter continuum measurement, we suggest that the progenitor of the V582 Aur outburst is a low-mass T Tauri star with average properties. The mass of an unresolved circumstellar structure, probably a disk, is 0.04 M ⊙. The optical and near-infrared spectra demonstrate the presence of hydrogen and metallic lines, show the CO band head in absorption, and exhibit a variable Hα profile. The color variations strongly indicate that both the ∼1 yr long brightness dip in 2012 and the current minimum since 2016 are caused by increased extinction along the line of sight. According to our accretion disk models, the reddening changed from A V = 4.5 to 12.5 mag, while the accretion rate remained practically constant. Similarly to the models of the UXor phenomenon of intermediate- and low-mass young stars, orbiting disk structures could be responsible for the eclipses.

  12. Behavioral tagging of extinction learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Carvalho Myskiw, Jociane; Benetti, Fernando; Izquierdo, Iván

    2013-01-15

    Extinction of contextual fear in rats is enhanced by exposure to a novel environment at 1-2 h before or 1 h after extinction training. This effect is antagonized by administration of protein synthesis inhibitors anisomycin and rapamycin into the hippocampus, but not into the amygdala, immediately after either novelty or extinction training, as well as by the gene expression blocker 5,6-dichloro-1-beta-D-ribofuranosylbenzimidazole administered after novelty training, but not after extinction training. Thus, this effect can be attributed to a mechanism similar to synaptic tagging, through which long-term potentiation can be enhanced by other long-term potentiations or by exposure to a novel environment in a protein synthesis-dependent fashion. Extinction learning produces a tag at the appropriate synapses, whereas novelty learning causes the synthesis of plasticity-related proteins that are captured by the tag, strengthening the synapses that generated this tag.

  13. Risk Aversion Relates to Cognitive Ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making, rather than to risk preferences....

  14. Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences....

  15. Co-extinction in a host-parasite network: identifying key hosts for network stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallas, Tad; Cornelius, Emily

    2015-08-17

    Parasites comprise a substantial portion of total biodiversity. Ultimately, this means that host extinction could result in many secondary extinctions of obligate parasites and potentially alter host-parasite network structure. Here, we examined a highly resolved fish-parasite network to determine key hosts responsible for maintaining parasite diversity and network structure (quantified here as nestedness and modularity). We evaluated four possible host extinction orders and compared the resulting co-extinction dynamics to random extinction simulations; including host removal based on estimated extinction risk, parasite species richness and host level contributions to nestedness and modularity. We found that all extinction orders, except the one based on realistic extinction risk, resulted in faster declines in parasite diversity and network structure relative to random biodiversity loss. Further, we determined species-level contributions to network structure were best predicted by parasite species richness and host family. Taken together, we demonstrate that a small proportion of hosts contribute substantially to network structure and that removal of these hosts results in rapid declines in parasite diversity and network structure. As network stability can potentially be inferred through measures of network structure, our findings may provide insight into species traits that confer stability.

  16. β-Adrenoceptor Blockade in the Basolateral Amygdala, But Not the Medial Prefrontal Cortex, Rescues the Immediate Extinction Deficit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giustino, Thomas F; Seemann, Jocelyn R; Acca, Gillian M; Goode, Travis D; Fitzgerald, Paul J; Maren, Stephen

    2017-12-01

    Early psychological interventions, such as exposure therapy, rely on extinction learning to reduce the development of stress- and trauma-related disorders. However, recent research suggests that extinction often fails to reduce fear when administered soon after trauma. This immediate extinction deficit (IED) may be due to stress-induced dysregulation of neural circuits involved in extinction learning. We have shown that systemic β-adrenoceptor blockade with propranolol rescues the IED, but impairs delayed extinction. Here we sought to determine the neural locus of these effects. Rats underwent auditory fear conditioning and then received either immediate (30 min) or delayed (24 h) extinction training. We used bilateral intracranial infusions of propranolol into either the infralimbic division of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) or the basolateral amygdala (BLA) to examine the effects of β-adrenoceptor blockade on immediate and delayed extinction learning. Interestingly, intra-BLA, but not intra-mPFC, propranolol rescued the IED; animals receiving intra-BLA propranolol prior to immediate extinction showed less spontaneous recovery of fear during extinction retrieval. Importantly, this was not due to impaired consolidation of the conditioning memory. In contrast, neither intra-BLA nor intra-mPFC propranolol affected delayed extinction learning. Overall, these data contribute to a growing literature suggesting dissociable roles for key nodes in the fear extinction circuit depending on the timing of extinction relative to conditioning. These data also suggest that heightened noradrenergic activity in the BLA underlies stress-induced extinction deficits. Propranolol may be a useful adjunct to behavioral therapeutic interventions in recently traumatized individuals who are at risk for developing trauma-related disorders.

  17. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

  18. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

  19. Compound Stimulus Extinction Reduces Spontaneous Recovery in Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Cesar A. O.; Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Fear-related behaviors are prone to relapse following extinction. We tested in humans a compound extinction design ("deepened extinction") shown in animal studies to reduce post-extinction fear recovery. Adult subjects underwent fear conditioning to a visual and an auditory conditioned stimulus (CSA and CSB, respectively) separately…

  20. Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

    1990-01-01

    When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

  1. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk" | Durrheim | South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South African Family Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 45, No 8 (2003) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk". DN Durrheim ...

  2. Constraints on Enhanced Extinction Resulting from Extinction Treatment in the Presence of an Added Excitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urcelay, Gonzalo P.; Lipatova, Olga; Miller, Ralph R.

    2009-01-01

    Three Pavlovian fear conditioning experiments with rats as subjects explored the effect of extinction in the presence of a concurrent excitor. Our aim was to explore this particular treatment, documented in previous studies to deepen extinction, with novel control groups to shed light on the processes involved in extinction. Relative to subjects…

  3. Seasonal atmospheric extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikhail, J.S.

    1979-01-01

    Mean monochromatic extinction coefficients at various wavelengths at the Kottamia Observatory site have shown the existence of a seasonal variation of atmospheric extinction. The extinction of aerosol compontnts with wavelengths at winter represent exceedingly good conditions. Spring gives the highest extinction due to aerosol. (orig.)

  4. How to detect and visualize extinction thresholds for structured PVA models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hildenbrandt, H.; Grimm, V.

    2006-01-01

    An extinction threshold is a population size below which extinction risk increases to beyond critical values. However, detecting extinction thresholds for structured population models is not straightforward because many different population structures may correspond to the same population size.

  5. Rescaling of temporal expectations during extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, Michael R.; Walsh, Carolyn; Balsam, Peter D

    2016-01-01

    Previous research suggests that extinction learning is temporally specific. Changing the CS duration between training and extinction can facilitate the loss of the CR within the extinction session but impairs long-term retention of extinction. In two experiments using conditioned magazine approach with rats, we examined the relation between temporal specificity of extinction and CR timing. In Experiment 1 rats were trained on a 12-s, fixed CS-US interval and then extinguished with CS presentations that were 6, 12, or 24 s in duration. The design of Experiment 2 was the same except rats were trained using partial rather than continuous reinforcement. In both experiments, extending the CS duration in extinction facilitated the diminution of CRs during the extinction session, but shortening the CS duration failed to slow extinction. In addition, extending (but not shortening) the CS duration caused temporal rescaling of the CR, in that the peak CR rate migrated later into the trial over the course of extinction training. This migration partially accounted for the faster loss of the CR when the CS duration was extended. Results are incompatible with the hypothesis that extinction is driven by cumulative CS exposure and suggest that temporally extended nonreinforced CS exposure reduces conditioned responding via temporal displacement rather than through extinction per se. PMID:28045291

  6. Risk sharing relations and enforcement mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barr, A.; Dekker, M.; Fafchamps, M.

    2008-01-01

    We investigate whether the set of available enforcement mechanisms affects the formation of risk sharing relations by applying dyadic regression analysis to data from a specifically designed behavioural experiment, two surveys and a genealogical mapping exercise. During the experiment participants

  7. Human Immunodeficiency Virus Related Knowledge, Risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There was poor HIV preventive practices; indicating ... Gyawali, et al.: HIV related knowledge, risk perception and practices among married women. Annals of Medical .... of this study correspond to the Indian, Nigerian and Iranian studies cited ...

  8. Roadway related tort liability and risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    This workbook provide government employees background information related to tort liability and risk management. Past experience with lawsuits against government entities are summarized. The reasons for the lawsuits and results are analyzed. The obje...

  9. Considerable MHC diversity suggests that the functional extinction of baiji is not related to population genetic collapse.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shixia Xu

    Full Text Available To further extend our understanding of the mechanism causing the current nearly extinct status of the baiji (Lipotes vexillifer, one of the most critically endangered species in the world, genetic diversity at the major histocompatibility complex (MHC class II DRB locus was investigated in the baiji. Nine highly divergent DRB alleles were identified in 17 samples, with an average of 28.4 (13.2% nucleotide difference and 16.7 (23.5% amino acid difference between alleles. The unexpectedly high levels of DRB allelic diversity in the baiji may partly be attributable to its evolutionary adaptations to the freshwater environment which is regarded to have a higher parasite diversity compared to the marine environment. In addition, balancing selection was found to be the main mechanisms in generating sequence diversity at baiji DRB gene. Considerable sequence variation at the adaptive MHC genes despite of significant loss of neutral genetic variation in baiji genome might suggest that intense selection has overpowered random genetic drift as the main evolutionary forces, which further suggested that the critically endangered or nearly extinct status of the baiji is not an outcome of genetic collapse.

  10. Testing for changes in spatial relative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazelton, Martin L

    2017-07-30

    The spatial relative risk function is a useful tool for describing geographical variation in disease incidence. We consider the problem of comparing relative risk functions between two time periods, with the idea of detecting alterations in the spatial pattern of disease risk irrespective of whether there has been a change in the overall incidence rate. Using case-control datasets for each period, we use kernel smoothing methods to derive a test statistic based on the difference between the log-relative risk functions, which we term the log-relative risk ratio. For testing a null hypothesis of an unchanging spatial pattern of risk, we show how p-values can be computed using both randomization methods and an asymptotic normal approximation. The methodology is applied to data on campylobacteriosis from 2006 to 2013 in a region of New Zealand. We find clear evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of risk between those years, which can be explained in differences by response to a public health initiative between urban and rural communities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. The Astronomical Pulse of Global Extinction Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David F.V. Lewis

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The linkage between astronomical cycles and the periodicity of mass extinctions is reviewed and discussed. In particular, the apparent 26 million year cycle of global extinctions may be related to the motion of the solar system around the galaxy, especially perpendicular to the galactic plane. The potential relevance of Milankovitch cycles is also explored in the light of current evidence for the possible causes of extinction events over a geological timescale.

  12. Malthusian Catastrophe: Species Extinction Caused By Oversized Population

    OpenAIRE

    Pan, Xubin

    2017-01-01

    There is one pseudo-extinction debt and four occurring conditions for real extinction debt. Since small and oversized populations have a high extinction risk, Pan threshold (upper limit) was calculated for Verhulst-Pear logistic growth model and logistic model with the Allee effect, an important parameter corresponding to Allee threshold (lower limit).

  13. Modeling galactic extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Cecchi-Pestellini, C.; Mulas, G.; Casu, S.; Iatì, M. A.; Saija, R.; Cacciola, A.; Borghese, F.; Denti, P.

    2011-01-01

    We present a model for interstellar extinction dust, in which we assume a bimodal distribution of extinction carriers, a dispersion of core-mantle grains, supplemented by a collection of PAHs in free molecular form. We use state-of-the-art methods to calculate the extinction due to macroscopic dust particles, and the absorption cross-sections of PAHs in four different charge states. While successfull for most of observed Galactic extinction curves, in few cases the model cannot provide reliab...

  14. Modern examples of extinctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lövei, Gabor L

    2013-01-01

    No species lives forever, and extinction is the ultimate fate of all living species. The fossil record indicates that a recent extinction wave affecting terrestrial vertebrates was parallel with the arrival of modern humans to areas formerly uninhabited by them. These modern instances of extinction...

  15. Intergalactic extinction and the deceleration parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meinel, R.

    1981-01-01

    The deceleration parameter q 0 is calculated from the relation between apparent magnitudes m of the brightest galaxies in clusters and their redshifts z considering an intergalactic extinction. The calculation is valid for a Friedman universe, homogeneously filled with dust grains, assuming the extinction to be 0.5 mag at z = 1 and aΛ -1 -law of extinction (according to Oleak and Schmidt 1976). Using the m,z-values of Kristian, Sandage, and Westphal (1978) a formal value of q 0 approximately 2.1 is obtained instead of q 0 approximately 1.6 without consideration of intergalactic extinction. (author)

  16. Examining the extinction of the Barbary lion and its implications for felid conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon A Black

    Full Text Available Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa.

  17. Examining the extinction of the Barbary lion and its implications for felid conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Simon A; Fellous, Amina; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Roberts, David L

    2013-01-01

    Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa.

  18. Rates of movement of threatened bird species between IUCN red list categories and toward extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke, M de L; Butchart, S H M; Garnett, S T; Crowley, G M; Mantilla-Beniers, N B; Stattersfield, A J

    2008-04-01

    In recent centuries bird species have been deteriorating in status and becoming extinct at a rate that may be 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than in prehuman times. We examined extinction rates of bird species designated critically endangered in 1994 and the rate at which species have moved through the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List categories of extinction risk globally for the period 1988-2004 and regionally in Australia from 1750 to 2000. For Australia we drew on historical accounts of the extent and condition of species habitats, spread of invasive species, and changes in sighting frequencies. These data sets permitted comparison of observed rates of movement through the IUCN Red List categories with novel predictions based on the IUCN Red List criterion E, which relates to explicit extinction probabilities determined, for example, by population viability analysis. The comparison also tested whether species listed on the basis of other criteria face a similar probability of moving to a higher threat category as those listed under criterion E. For the rate at which species moved from vulnerable to endangered, there was a good match between observations and predictions, both worldwide and in Australia. Nevertheless, species have become extinct at a rate that, although historically high, is 2 (Australia) to 10 (globally) times lower than predicted. Although the extinction probability associated with the critically endangered category may be too high, the shortfall in realized extinctions can also be attributed to the beneficial impact of conservation intervention. These efforts may have reduced the number of global extinctions from 19 to 3 and substantially slowed the extinction trajectory of 33 additional critically endangered species. Our results suggest that current conservation action benefits species on the brink of extinction, but is less targeted at or has less effect on moderately threatened species.

  19. Climate change risks, extinction debt, and conservation implications for a threatened freshwater fish: Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandit, Shubha N; Maitland, Bryan M; Pandit, Laxmi K; Poesch, Mark S; Enders, Eva C

    2017-11-15

    limitations, suggesting current populations may face an extinction debt within the next half century. These results provide evidence that Carmine shiner may be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and suggest that management actions - such as assisted migration - may be needed to mitigate impacts from climate change and ensure the long-term persistence of the species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Spaceborne profiling of atmospheric temperature and particle extinction with pure rotational Raman lidar and of relative humidity in combination with differential absorption lidar: performance simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Girolamo, Paolo; Behrendt, Andreas; Wulfmeyer, Volker

    2006-01-01

    The performance of a spaceborne temperature lidar based on the pure rotational Raman (RR) technique in the UV has been simulated. Results show that such a system deployed onboard a low-Earth-orbit satellite would provide global-scale clear-sky temperature measurements in the troposphere and lower stratosphere with precisions that satisfy World Meteorological Organization (WMO) threshold observational requirements for numerical weather prediction and climate research applications. Furthermore, nighttime temperature measurements would still be within the WMO threshold observational requirements in the presence of several cloud structures. The performance of aerosol extinction measurements from space, which can be carried out simultaneously with temperature measurements by RR lidar, is also assessed. Furthermore, we discuss simulations of relative humidity measurements from space obtained from RR temperature measurements and water-vapor data measured with the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) technique

  1. Corticosterone facilitates extinction of fear memory in BALB/c mice but strengthens cue related fear in C57BL/6 mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinks, V; de Kloet, E R; Oitzl, M S

    2009-04-01

    Corticosterone, the naturally occurring glucocorticoid of rodents is secreted in response to stressors and is known for its facilitating and detrimental effects on emotional learning and memory. The large variability in the action of corticosterone on processing of emotional memories is postulated to depend on genetic background and the spatio-temporal domain in which the hormone operates. To address this hypothesis, mice of two strains with distinct corticosterone secretory patterns and behavioural phenotype (BALB/c and C57BL/6J) were treated with corticosterone (250 microg/kg, i.p.), either 5 min before or directly after acquisition in a fear conditioning task. As the paradigm allowed assessing in one experimental procedure both context- and cue-related fear behaviour, we were able to detect generalization and specificity of fear. BALB/c showed generalized strong fear memory, while C57BL/6J mice discriminated between freezing during context- and cue episodes. Corticosterone had opposite effects on fear memory depending on the strain and time of injection. Corticosterone after acquisition did not affect C57BL/6J mice, but destabilized consolidation and facilitated extinction in BALB/c. Corticosterone 5 min before acquisition strengthened stress-associated signals: BALB/c no longer showed lower fear memory, while C57BL/6J mice displayed increased fear memory and impaired extinction in cue episodes. We propose that corticosterone-induced facilitation of fear memory in C57BL/6J mice can be used to study the development of fear memories, corticosterone administration in BALB/c mice presents a model to examine treatment. We conclude that genetic background and time of corticosterone action are modifiers of fear memory with interesting translational implications for anxiety-related diseases.

  2. Risk considerations related to lung modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

    1989-01-01

    Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

  3. Bimodal extinction without cross-modal extinction.

    OpenAIRE

    Inhoff, A W; Rafal, R D; Posner, M J

    1992-01-01

    Three patients with unilateral neurological injury were clinically examined. All showed consistent unilateral extinction in the tactile and visual modalities on simultaneous intramodal stimulation. There was virtually no evidence for cross-modal extinction, however, so that contralateral stimulation of one modality would have extinguished perception of ipsilateral stimuli in the other modality. It is concluded that the attentional system controlling the encoding of tactile and visual stimuli ...

  4. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connell, Paul P; Keane, Pearse A; O'Neill, Evelyn C; Altaie, Rasha W; Loane, Edward; Neelam, Kumari; Nolan, John M; Beatty, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  5. Risk Factors for Age-Related Maculopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul P. Connell

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Age-related maculopathy (ARM is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  6. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Connell, Paul P

    2012-02-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715\\/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  7. Immediate extinction promotes the return of fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, Christian J; Hamacher-Dang, Tanja C; Wolf, Oliver T

    2016-05-01

    Accumulating evidence indicates that immediate extinction is less effective than delayed extinction in attenuating the return of fear. This line of fear conditioning research impacts the proposed onset of psychological interventions after threatening situations. In the present study, forty healthy men were investigated in a differential fear conditioning paradigm with fear acquisition in context A, extinction in context B, followed by retrieval testing in both contexts 24h later to test fear renewal. Differently coloured lights served as conditioned stimuli (CS): two CS (CS+) were paired with an electrical stimulation that served as unconditioned stimulus, the third CS was never paired (CS-). Extinction took place immediately after fear acquisition or 24h later. One CS+ was extinguished whereas the second CS+ remained unextinguished to control for different time intervals between fear acquisition and retrieval testing. Immediate extinction led to larger skin conductance responses during fear retrieval to both the extinguished and unextinguished CS relative to the CS-, indicating a stronger return of fear compared to delayed extinction. Taken together, immediate extinction is less potent than delayed extinction and is associated with a stronger renewal effect. Thus, the time-point of psychological interventions relative to the offset of threatening situations needs to be carefully considered to prevent relapses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. High male sexual investment as a driver of extinction in fossil ostracods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Maria João Fernandes; Puckett, T Markham; Lockwood, Rowan; Swaddle, John P; Hunt, Gene

    2018-04-01

    Sexual selection favours traits that confer advantages in the competition for mates. In many cases, such traits are costly to produce and maintain, because the costs help to enforce the honesty of these signals and cues 1 . Some evolutionary models predict that sexual selection also produces costs at the population level, which could limit the ability of populations to adapt to changing conditions and thus increase the risk of extinction 2-4 . Other models, however, suggest that sexual selection should increase rates of adaptation and enhance the removal of deleterious mutations, thus protecting populations against extinction 3, 5, 6 . Resolving the conflict between these models is not only important for explaining the history of biodiversity, but also relevant to understanding the mechanisms of the current biodiversity crisis. Previous attempts to test the conflicting predictions produced by these models have been limited to extant species and have thus relied on indirect proxies for species extinction. Here we use the informative fossil record of cytheroid ostracods-small, bivalved crustaceans with sexually dimorphic carapaces-to test how sexual selection relates to actual species extinction. We show that species with more pronounced sexual dimorphism, indicating the highest levels of male investment in reproduction, had estimated extinction rates that were ten times higher than those of the species with the lowest investment. These results indicate that sexual selection can be a substantial risk factor for extinction.

  9. Mass extinctions: Ecological selectivity and primary production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Melissa Clark; Thayer, Charles W.

    1991-09-01

    If mass extinctions were caused by reduced primary productivity, then extinctions should be concentrated among animals with starvation-susceptible feeding modes, active lifestyles, and high-energy budgets. The stratigraphic ranges (by stage) of 424 genera of bivalves and 309 genera of articulate brachiopods suggest that there was an unusual reduction of primary productivity at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary extinction. For bivalves at the K/T, there were (1) selective extinction of suspension feeders and other susceptible trophic categories relative to deposit feeders and other resistant categories, and (2) among suspension feed-ers, selective extinction of bivalves with active locomotion. During the Permian-Triassic (P/Tr) extinction and Jurassic background time, extinction rates among suspension feeders were greater for articulate brachiopods than for bivalves. But during the K/T event, extinction rates of articulates and suspension-feeding bivalves equalized, possibly because the low-energy budgets of articulates gave them an advantage when food was scarce.

  10. Distribution of mammal functional diversity in the Neotropical realm: Influence of land-use and extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José F González-Maya

    Full Text Available Functional diversity represents a measure of diversity that incorporates the role of species in an ecosystem, and therefore its dynamics and resilience. Assessing its drivers and spatial variation represents an important step forward in our understanding of functional ecosystem dynamics and it is also necessary to achieve a comprehensive conservation planning. In this paper, we assessed mammal functional diversity for the 218 ecoregions within the Neotropical realm. We evaluated the overall influence and spatial variation of species richness, ecoregion extent, intervention and species at risk on functional diversity. Using ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression modeling approaches, we found that intervened areas and threatened and non-threatened species are the most influential overall drivers of functional diversity. However, we also detected that these variables do not operate equally across scales. Our local analyses indicated both that the variation explained and local coefficients vary spatially depending on the ecoregion and major habitat type. As estimates of functional diversity are based on current distribution of all mammals, negative influence of intervened areas and positive influence of non-threatened species may reflect a potential degradation of functional processes for some ecosystems. Most generally, the negative influence of intervention together with the influence of threatened species indicates that some areas are currently more susceptible to functional diversity loss. Our results help to pinpoint key areas requiring urgent conservation action to reduce natural land-cover loss and areas where threatened species play influential roles on ecosystem functioning.

  11. End Ordovician extinctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harper, David A. T.; Hammarlund, Emma; Rasmussen, Christian M. Ø.

    2014-01-01

    -global anoxia associated with a marked transgression during the Late Hirnantian. Most recently, however, new drivers for the extinctions have been proposed, including widespread euxinia together with habitat destruction caused by plate tectonic movements, suggesting that the end Ordovician mass extinctions were...

  12. People at High Risk of Developing Flu-Related Complications

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other People at High Risk of Developing Flu–Related Complications ... related complications if they get sick with influenza. People at High Risk for Developing Flu-Related Complications ...

  13. Interstellar extinction correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.P.; Williams, D.A.; Duley, W.W.

    1987-01-01

    A recently proposed model for interstellar grains in which the extinction arises from small silicate cores with mantles of hydrogenated amorphous carbon (HAC or α-C:H), and large, but thinly coated, silicate grains can successfully explain many of the observed properties of interstellar dust. The small silicate cores give rise to the 2200 A extinction feature. The extinction in the visual is produced by the large silicates and the HAC mantles on the small cores, whilst the far UV extinction arises in the HAC mantles with a small contribution form the silicate grains. The grain model requires that the silicate material is the more resilient component and that variations in the observed extinction from region to region are due to the nature and depletion of the carbon in the HAC mantles. (author)

  14. Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Segura

    Full Text Available Adaptive limiter control (ALC and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects. We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

  15. Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, Juan; Hilker, Frank M; Franco, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

  16. Peripheral intravenous catheter-related phlebitis and related risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassaji-Zavareh, M; Ghorbani, R

    2007-08-01

    Peripheral intravenous catheter-related phlebitis is a common and significant problem in clinical practice. This study aims to investigate the incidence of phlebitis and to evaluate some important related factors. 300 patients admitted to medical and surgical wards of hospitals in Semnan, Iran from April 2003 to February 2004 were prospectively studied. Variables evaluated were age, gender, site and size of catheter, type of insertion and underlying conditions (diabetes mellitus, trauma, infectious disease and burns). Phlebitis was defined when at least four criteria were fulfilled (erythema, pain, tenderness, warmth, induration, palpable cord and swelling). Any patient who was discharged or their catheter removed before three days were excluded. Phlebitis occurred in 26 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI] 21- 31 percent) of patients. There was no significant relationship between age, catheter bore size, trauma and phlebitis. Related risk factors were gender (odds-ratio [OR] 1.50, 95 percent CI 1.01-2.22), site (OR 3.25, 95 percent CI 2.26-4.67) and type of insertion (OR 2.04, 95 percent CI 1.36-3.05) of catheter, diabetes mellitus (OR 7.78, 95 percent CI 4.59-13.21), infectious disease (OR 6.21, 95 percent CI 4.27-9.03) and burns (OR 3.96, 95 percent CI 3.26-4.82). Phlebitis is still an important and ongoing problem in medical practice. In patients with diabetes mellitus and infectious diseases, more attention is needed.

  17. Extinction and the fossil record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, ,. J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1994-01-01

    The author examines evidence of mass extinctions in the fossil record and searches for reasons for such large extinctions. Five major mass extinctions eliminated at least 40 percent of animal genera in the oceans and from 65 to 95 percent of ocean species. Questions include the occurrence of gradual or catastrophic extinctions, causes, environment, the capacity of a perturbation to cause extinctions each time it happens, and the possibility and identification of complex events leading to a mass extinction.

  18. Climate Change and Food-Related Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isidro Juan Mirón Pérez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There are two principal concepts to take into account relating food and climate change: food security and food safety. Most papers linking climate change to food risks deal with the first one: the security of the food supply.The increase of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, together with the rise of the temperatures on a global level would theorically lead to greater yields of crops grown for human and animal consumption. Howevwe, most of these studies have shown that, in general, crop yields are decreasing as this global change also brings about an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In adition, these weather anomalies would be unevenly spread and affect developing countries, which are less capable of tackling this change, more severely. All these factors would result in greater uncertainty in the supply of food, which consequently would be less predictable and leave it more exposed to market speculation.A rise in average temperatures would be expected to increase the risk of proliferation of foodborne disease-causing microorganisms such as Salmonella or Campylobacter. Nevertheless, a trend of this sort has not been detected yet in developed countries, where information systems allow the temporal evolution of the occurrence of those diseases to be tracked, since means for food preservation and food controls are wide spread.

  19. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  20. Post-Retrieval Extinction Attenuates Cocaine Memories

    OpenAIRE

    Sartor, Gregory C; Aston-Jones, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that post-retrieval extinction training attenuates fear and reward-related memories in both humans and rodents. This noninvasive, behavioral approach has the potential to be used in clinical settings to treat maladaptive memories that underlie several psychiatric disorders, including drug addiction. However, few studies to date have used a post-retrieval extinction approach to attenuate addiction-related memories. In the current study, we attempted to disrupt cocaine...

  1. Optimising Extinction of Conditioned Disgust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosman, Renske C; Borg, Charmaine; de Jong, Peter J

    2016-01-01

    Maladaptive disgust responses are tenacious and resistant to exposure-based interventions. In a similar vein, laboratory studies have shown that conditioned disgust is relatively insensitive to Conditioned Stimulus (CS)-only extinction procedures. The relatively strong resistance to extinction might be explained by disgust's adaptive function to motivate avoidance from contamination threats (pathogens) that cannot be readily detected and are invisible to the naked eye. Therefore, the mere visual presentation of unreinforced disgust eliciting stimuli might not be sufficient to correct a previously acquired threat value of the CS+. Following this, the current study tested whether the efficacy of CS-only exposure can be improved by providing additional safety information about the CS+. For the CSs we included two neutral items a pea soup and a sausage roll, whereas for the Unconditioned Stimulus (US) we used one video clip of a woman vomiting and a neutral one about glass blowing. The additional safety information was conveyed by allowing actual contact with the CS+ or by observing an actress eating the food items representing the CS+. When additional safety information was provided via allowing direct contact with the CS+, there was a relatively strong post-extinction increase in participants' willingness-to-eat the CS+. This beneficial effect was still evident at one-week follow up. Also self-reported disgust was lower at one-week follow up when additional safety information was provided. The current findings help explain why disgust is relatively insensitive to CS-only extinction procedures, and provide helpful starting points to improve interventions that are aimed to reduce distress in disgust-related psychopathology.

  2. Optimising Extinction of Conditioned Disgust.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renske C Bosman

    Full Text Available Maladaptive disgust responses are tenacious and resistant to exposure-based interventions. In a similar vein, laboratory studies have shown that conditioned disgust is relatively insensitive to Conditioned Stimulus (CS-only extinction procedures. The relatively strong resistance to extinction might be explained by disgust's adaptive function to motivate avoidance from contamination threats (pathogens that cannot be readily detected and are invisible to the naked eye. Therefore, the mere visual presentation of unreinforced disgust eliciting stimuli might not be sufficient to correct a previously acquired threat value of the CS+. Following this, the current study tested whether the efficacy of CS-only exposure can be improved by providing additional safety information about the CS+. For the CSs we included two neutral items a pea soup and a sausage roll, whereas for the Unconditioned Stimulus (US we used one video clip of a woman vomiting and a neutral one about glass blowing. The additional safety information was conveyed by allowing actual contact with the CS+ or by observing an actress eating the food items representing the CS+. When additional safety information was provided via allowing direct contact with the CS+, there was a relatively strong post-extinction increase in participants' willingness-to-eat the CS+. This beneficial effect was still evident at one-week follow up. Also self-reported disgust was lower at one-week follow up when additional safety information was provided. The current findings help explain why disgust is relatively insensitive to CS-only extinction procedures, and provide helpful starting points to improve interventions that are aimed to reduce distress in disgust-related psychopathology.

  3. Colonisation and extinction in relation to competition and resource partitioning in acanthocephalans of freshwater fishes of the British Isles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyndon, A R; Kennedy, C R

    2001-01-01

    This paper challenges two paradigms long held in relation to the ecology of parasites in freshwater systems: (1) autogenic species are poorer colonisers than allogenic ones; and (2) parasites with direct life cycles are more successful colonisers than those with complex life cycles. Using new and existing data for Acanthocephala in freshwater fish from the British Isles, it is suggested that all six species present have been able to colonise and persist successfully, in spite of the supposed limitations of their autogenic life-style. It is proposed that these parasites have overcome these limitations by a variety of means, which apply equally to all species considered. Foremost among these is the utilisation of a migratory fish host as either a preferred or a suitable host in their life cycle, allowing colonisation of new areas and rescue effects in established areas, whilst equally important is the use of a common and widespread crustacean as the intermediate host. In addition, all six species appear to exhibit resource partitioning by host at either or both the larval and adult stages, thus reducing the potential for competition and further facilitating colonisation and survival. This hypothesis is supported by data from previous studies both on acanthocephalans from Europe and North America and on other autogenic parasites. It also provides an explanation for the apparently atypical host utilisation patterns of some acanthocephalan species in areas on the edge of their distributions, notably in Ireland.

  4. Running from fear: Exercise modulation of fear extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, Margaret K; Hake, Holly S; Bouchet, Courtney A; Greenwood, Benjamin N

    2018-03-31

    Extinction-based exposure therapy is the most common behavioral therapy for anxiety and trauma-related disorders, but fear tends to resurface even after successful extinction. Identification of novel strategies to enhance fear extinction and reduce fear relapse is of paramount importance to mental health. Exercise can enhance cognitive function, but it is not yet well understood whether exercise can be an effective augmentation strategy for fear extinction. In the current review, we present the current state of knowledge on the effects of exercise on fear extinction. Effects of exercise duration, explanations for conflicting results, and potential mechanisms, focusing on a hypothesized role for dopamine, are all discussed. We also provide new data suggesting that the timing in which acute exercise occurs relative to fear extinction, is a crucial variable in determining whether exercise can enhance fear extinction. Clinical implications and ideas to guide future research endeavors in this area are provided. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Ecomorphological selectivity among marine teleost fishes during the end-Cretaceous extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Matt

    2009-03-31

    Despite the attention focused on mass extinction events in the fossil record, patterns of extinction in the dominant group of marine vertebrates-fishes-remain largely unexplored. Here, I demonstrate ecomorphological selectivity among marine teleost fishes during the end-Cretaceous extinction, based on a genus-level dataset that accounts for lineages predicted on the basis of phylogeny but not yet sampled in the fossil record. Two ecologically relevant anatomical features are considered: body size and jaw-closing lever ratio. Extinction intensity is higher for taxa with large body sizes and jaws consistent with speed (rather than force) transmission; resampling tests indicate that victims represent a nonrandom subset of taxa present in the final stage of the Cretaceous. Logistic regressions of the raw data reveal that this nonrandom distribution stems primarily from the larger body sizes of victims relative to survivors. Jaw mechanics are also a significant factor for most dataset partitions but are always less important than body size. When data are corrected for phylogenetic nonindependence, jaw mechanics show a significant correlation with extinction risk, but body size does not. Many modern large-bodied, predatory taxa currently suffering from overexploitation, such billfishes and tunas, first occur in the Paleocene, when they appear to have filled the functional space vacated by some extinction victims.

  6. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  7. Affect and Acceptability: Exploring Teachers' Technology-Related Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Sarah K.

    2011-01-01

    Educational change, such as technology integration, involves risk. Teachers are encouraged to "take risks", but what risks they are asked to take and how do they perceive these risks? Developing an understanding of teachers' technology-related risk perceptions can help explain their choices and behaviours. This paper presents a way to…

  8. Temporal Dynamics of Recovery from Extinction Shortly after Extinction Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archbold, Georgina E.; Dobbek, Nick; Nader, Karim

    2013-01-01

    Evidence suggests that extinction is new learning. Memory acquisition involves both short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) components; however, few studies have examined early phases of extinction retention. Retention of auditory fear extinction was examined at various time points. Shortly (1-4 h) after extinction acquisition…

  9. Agricultural net primary production in relation to that liberated by the extinction of Pleistocene mega-herbivores: an estimate of agricultural carrying capacity?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doughty, Christopher E; Field, Christopher B, E-mail: chris.doughty@ouce.ox.ac.uk, E-mail: cfield@ciw.edu [Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    Mega-fauna (defined as animals > 44 kg) experienced a global extinction with 97 of 150 genera going extinct by {approx} 10 000 years ago. We estimate the net primary production (NPP) that was liberated following the global extinction of these mega-herbivores. We then explore how humans, through agriculture, gradually appropriated this liberated NPP, with specific calculations for 800, 1850, and 2000 AD. By 1850, most of the liberated NPP had been appropriated by people, but NPP was still available in the Western US, South America and Australia. NPP liberated following the extinction of the mega-herbivores was {approx} 2.5% ({approx}1.4 (between 1.2 and 1.6) Pg yr{sup -1} of 56 Pg C yr{sup -1}; Pg: petagrams) of global terrestrial NPP. Liberated NPP peaked during the onset of agriculture and was sufficient for sustaining human agriculture until {approx} 320 (250-500) years ago. Humans currently use {approx} 6 times more NPP than was utilized by the extinct Pleistocene mega-herbivores.

  10. Agricultural net primary production in relation to that liberated by the extinction of Pleistocene mega-herbivores: an estimate of agricultural carrying capacity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doughty, Christopher E; Field, Christopher B

    2010-01-01

    Mega-fauna (defined as animals > 44 kg) experienced a global extinction with 97 of 150 genera going extinct by ∼ 10 000 years ago. We estimate the net primary production (NPP) that was liberated following the global extinction of these mega-herbivores. We then explore how humans, through agriculture, gradually appropriated this liberated NPP, with specific calculations for 800, 1850, and 2000 AD. By 1850, most of the liberated NPP had been appropriated by people, but NPP was still available in the Western US, South America and Australia. NPP liberated following the extinction of the mega-herbivores was ∼ 2.5% (∼1.4 (between 1.2 and 1.6) Pg yr -1 of 56 Pg C yr -1 ; Pg: petagrams) of global terrestrial NPP. Liberated NPP peaked during the onset of agriculture and was sufficient for sustaining human agriculture until ∼ 320 (250-500) years ago. Humans currently use ∼ 6 times more NPP than was utilized by the extinct Pleistocene mega-herbivores.

  11. Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anette Tarp; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

    2017-01-01

    The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

  12. Geographies of Conservation I: De-extinction and Precision Conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, William Mark

    2016-01-01

    Extinction has long been a central concern in biodiversity conservation. Today, de-extinction offers interesting possibilities of restoring charismatic species and ecosystem function, but also risks and costs. Most de-extinction depends on genetic engineering and synthetic biology. These technologies are also proposed for use in ‘gene tweaking’ in wild species to enhance their chance of survival. Within conservation, the resulting debates pit an optimistic world of high-tech ‘precision con...

  13. Dinasour extinction and volcanic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gledhill, J. A.

    There is at present some controversy about the reason for the mass extinction of dinosaurs and other forms of life at the end of the Cretaceous. A suggestion by Alvarez et al. [1980] that this was due to the collision of the earth with a meteorite 10 km or so in diameter has excited considerable interest [Silver and Schultz, 1982] and also some criticism [Stanley, 1984]. A recent publication [Wood, 1984] describing the catastrophic effects of a relatively minor lava flow in Iceland suggests that intense volcanic activity could have played a large part in the extinctions. In this letter it is pointed out that the Deccan lava flows in India took place in the appropriate time and may well have been of sufficient magnitude to be a major factor in the Cretaceous-Tertiary (C-T) boundary catastrophe.

  14. Climate warming and humans played different roles in triggering Late Quaternary extinctions in east and west Eurasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xinru; Zhang, Zhibin

    2017-03-29

    Climate change and humans are proposed as the two key drivers of total extinction of many large mammals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but disentangling their relative roles remains challenging owing to a lack of quantitative evaluation of human impact and climate-driven distribution changes on the extinctions of these large mammals in a continuous temporal-spatial dimension. Here, our analyses showed that temperature change had significant effects on mammoth (genus Mammuthus ), rhinoceros (Rhinocerotidae), horse (Equidae) and deer (Cervidae). Rapid global warming was the predominant factor driving the total extinction of mammoths and rhinos in frigid zones from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Humans showed significant, negative effects on extirpations of the four mammalian taxa, and were the predominant factor causing the extinction or major extirpations of rhinos and horses. Deer survived both rapid climate warming and extensive human impacts. Our study indicates that both the current rates of warming and range shifts of species are much faster than those from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. Our results provide new insight into the extinction of Late Quaternary megafauna by demonstrating taxon-, period- and region-specific differences in extinction drivers of climate change and human disturbances, and some implications about the extinction risk of animals by recent and ongoing climate warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

  15. Managing IT-related operational risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savić Ana

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Not so long ago, information technology (IT risk occupied a small corner of operational risk - the opportunity loss from a missed IT development deadline. Today, the success of an entire financial institution may lay on managing a broad landscape of IT risks. IT risk is a potential damage to an organization's value, resulting from inadequate managing of processes and technologies. IT risk includes the failure to respond to security and privacy requirements, as well as many other issues such as: human error, internal fraud through software manipulation, external fraud by intruders, obsolesce in applications and machines, reliability issues or mismanagement. The World Economic Forum provides best information about this problem. They rank a breakdown of critical information infrastructure among the most likely core global risks, with 10-20 % likelihood over the next 10 years and potential worldwide impact of $250 billion. Sustained investment in IT - almost $1.2 trillion or 29% of 2006 private-sector capital investment in the U.S. alone fuels growing exposure to IT risk. Greg Hughes, chief strategy officer in Symantec Corp. recently claimed "IT risk management is more than using technology to solve security problems. With proper planning and broad support, it can give an organization the confidence to innovate, using IT to outdistance competitors".

  16. Interstellar Silicon Depletion and the Ultraviolet Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Ajay; Li, Aigen

    2018-01-01

    Spinning small silicate grains were recently invoked to account for the Galactic foreground anomalous microwave emission. These grains, if present, will absorb starlight in the far ultraviolet (UV). There is also renewed interest in attributing the enigmatic 2175 Å interstellar extinction bump to small silicates. To probe the role of silicon in the UV extinction, we explore the relations between the amount of silicon required to be locked up in silicates [Si/H]dust and the 2175 Å bump or the far-UV extinction rise, based on an analysis of the extinction curves along 46 Galactic sightlines for which the gas-phase silicon abundance [Si/H]gas is known. We derive [Si/H]dust either from [Si/H]ISM - [Si/H]gas or from the Kramers- Kronig relation which relates the wavelength-integrated extinction to the total dust volume, where [Si/H]ISM is the interstellar silicon reference abundance and taken to be that of proto-Sun or B stars. We also derive [Si/H]dust from fi�tting the observed extinction curves with a mixture of amorphous silicates and graphitic grains. We fi�nd that in all three cases [Si/H]dust shows no correlation with the 2175 Å bump, while the carbon depletion [C/H]dust tends to correlate with the 2175 Å bump. This supports carbon grains instead of silicates as the possible carrier of the 2175 Å bump. We also �find that neither [Si/H]dust nor [C/H]dust alone correlates with the far-UV extinction, suggesting that the far-UV extinction is a combined effect of small carbon grains and silicates.

  17. Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Schneider, Stephen H; Fay, John P; Loarie, Scott R

    2008-02-01

    Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8 degrees C, projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1 degrees C warming) to 30.0% (6.4 degrees C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100-500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.

  18. Are marine and nonmarine extinctions correlated?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, Michael R.

    Recent papers in Eos have debated the possible relationships between marine mass extinctions, comet showers, and volcanism [Alvarez, 1986; Officer and Grieve, 1986], and ail three might be linked [Rampino, 1987]. Moreover, as Officer and Grieve [ 1986] point out, various other causes have been suggested for given extinction events, including changes in climate, ocean circulation, and sea level fluctuations, possibly related to plate tectonics and continental positions. Also under debate is the issue of whether mass extinctions were gradual, stepped, or geologically sudden events (see, for example, Hut et al. [1987]). A missing ingredient thus far in these debates has been the record of faunal diversity of nonmarine animals. Does this show any agreement with the marine extinction record?

  19. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF GENETIC EROSION IN THE PROCESS OF EXTINCTION .1. GENETIC DIFFERENTIATION IN SALVIA-PRATENSIS AND SCABIOSA-COLUMBARIA IN RELATION TO POPULATION-SIZE

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VANTREUREN, R; BIJLSMA, R; VANDELDEN, W; OUBORG, NJ

    As part of a programme to determine the importance of the loss of genetic variation for the probability of population extinction, the amount of allozyme variation was determined in 14 populations of Salvia pratensis and in 12 populations of Scabiosa columbaria. Significant correlations were found

  20. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-07

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  1. A window of vulnerability: impaired fear extinction in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Kathryn D; Den, Miriam L; Graham, Bronwyn M; Richardson, Rick

    2014-09-01

    There have been significant advances made towards understanding the processes mediating extinction of learned fear. However, despite being of clear theoretical and clinical significance, very few studies have examined fear extinction in adolescence, which is often described as a developmental window of vulnerability to psychological disorders. This paper reviews the relatively small body of research examining fear extinction in adolescence. A prominent finding of this work is that adolescents, both humans and rodents, exhibit a marked impairment in extinction relative to both younger (e.g., juvenile) and older (e.g., adult) groups. We then review some potential mechanisms that could produce the striking extinction deficit observed in adolescence. For example, one neurobiological candidate mechanism for impaired extinction in adolescence involves changes in the functional connectivity within the fear extinction circuit, particularly between prefrontal cortical regions and the amygdala. In addition, we review research on emotion regulation and attention processes that suggests that developmental changes in attention bias to threatening cues may be a cognitive mechanism that mediates age-related differences in extinction learning. We also examine how a differential reaction to chronic stress in adolescence impacts upon extinction retention during adolescence as well as in later life. Finally, we consider the findings of several studies illustrating promising approaches that overcome the typically-observed extinction impairments in adolescent rodents and that could be translated to human adolescents. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Association between firearm ownership, firearm-related risk and risk reduction behaviours and alcohol-related risk behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintemute, Garen J

    2011-12-01

    Alcohol use and firearm ownership are risk factors for violent injury and death. To determine whether firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours, the author conducted a cross-sectional study using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data for eight states in the USA from 1996 to 1997 (the most recent data available). Altogether, 15 474 respondents provided information on firearm exposure. After adjustment for demographics and state of residence, firearm owners were more likely than those with no firearms at home to have ≥5 drinks on one occasion (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.50), to drink and drive (OR 1.79; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.39) and to have ≥60 drinks per month (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.83). Heavy alcohol use was most common among firearm owners who also engaged in behaviours such as carrying a firearm for protection against other people and keeping a firearm at home that was both loaded and not locked away. The author concludes that firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours.

  3. Reintroducing resurrected species: selecting DeExtinction candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Philip J; Moehrenschlager, Axel; Ewen, John

    2014-03-01

    Technological advances have raised the controversial prospect of resurrecting extinct species. Species DeExtinction should involve more than the production of biological orphans to be scrutinized in the laboratory or zoo. If DeExtinction is to realize its stated goals of deep ecological enrichment, then resurrected animals must be translocated (i.e., released within suitable habitat). Therefore, DeExtinction is a conservation translocation issue and the selection of potential DeExtinction candidates must consider the feasibility and risks associated with reintroduction. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Guidelines on Reintroductions and Other Conservation Translocations provide a framework for DeExtinction candidate selection. We translate these Guidelines into ten questions to be addressed early on in the selection process to eliminate unsuitable reintroduction candidates. We apply these questions to the thylacine, Yangtze River Dolphin, and Xerces blue butterfly. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

    2015-01-01

    A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  5. Interstellar dust and extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathis, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    It is noted that the term interstellar dust refers to materials with rather different properties, and that the mean extinction law of Seaton (1979) or Savage and Mathis (1979) should be replaced by the expression given by Cardelli et al. (1989), using the appropriate value of total-to-selective extinction. The older laws were appropriate for the diffuse ISM but dust in clouds differs dramatically in its extinction law. Dust is heavily processed while in the ISM by being included within clouds and cycled back into the diffuse ISM many times during its lifetime. Hence, grains probably reflect only a trace of their origin, although meteoritic inclusions with isotopic anomalies demonstrate that some tiny particles survive intact from a supernova origin to the present. 186 refs

  6. AESoP: Astronomical Extinction Spectrophotometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linford, Justin; McGraw, J.; Zimmer, P.; Ackermann, M.; Fitch, J.

    2009-01-01

    The Earth's atmosphere is a major obstruction to the precision and accuracy of ground-based photometry. The atmosphere removes light from astronomical objects both by absorption and scattering by constituent molecules, aerosols and clouds. These effects can change significantly over short time periods and over modest angles on the sky. To further understand these effects, the UNM Measurement Astrophysics Group has designed, built and recently deployed the Astronomical Extinction Spectrophotometer (AESoP), a 100mm objective grating spectrometer. By monitoring bright stars in sensibly the same direction as a larger photometric telescope is observing, AESoP will measure the wavelength-dependent extinction due to the Earth's atmosphere from 450nm to 900nm on time scales of approximately one minute. The collocated Astronomical LIDAR for Extinction (ALE) provides a high-precision monochromatic extinction measurement at 527nm. Knowing the extinction at a single wavelength allows us to pin the relative spectra generated by AESoP. These extinction spectra can then be integrated over the bandpass of the photometric telescope system to create real time corrections of observations. We present the design and construction of AESoP along with the preliminary results of our first combined observing campaign. This effort is our first step toward breaking the 1% photometry barrier. This project is funded by AFRL Grant FA9451-04-2-0355

  7. The FMOS-COSMOS survey of star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 1.6. II. The mass-metallicity relation and the dependence on star formation rate and dust extinction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zahid, H. J.; Sanders, D. B.; Chu, J.; Hasinger, G. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Kashino, D. [Division of Particle and Astrophysical Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Nagoya, 464-8602 (Japan); Silverman, J. D. [Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (WPI), Todai Institutes for Advanced Study, the University of Tokyo, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, 277-8583 (Japan); Kewley, L. J. [Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Australian National University, Cotter Road, Weston Creek, ACT 2611 (Australia); Daddi, E. [CEA-Saclay, Service d' Astrophysique, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Renzini, A. [INAF Osservatorio Astronomico di Padova, vicolo dell' Osservatorio 5, I-35122 Padova (Italy); Rodighiero, G. [Dipartimento di Astronomia, Università di Padova, vicolo dell Osservatorio 3, I-35122 Padova (Italy); Nagao, T. [The Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8302 (Japan); Arimoto, N. [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Subaru Telescope, 650 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Kartaltepe, J. [National Optical Astronomy Observatory, 950 N. Cherry Ave., Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Lilly, S. J.; Carollo, C. M. [Institute for Astronomy, ETH Zürich, Wolfgang-Pauli-strasse 27, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland); Maier, C. [Vienna University, Department of Astrophysics, Tuerkenschanzstrasse 17, 1180 Vienna (Austria); Geller, M. J. [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Capak, P. [California Institute of Technology, 1200 E. California Blvd., Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Ilbert, O. [Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, LAM (Laboratoire d' Astrophysique de Marseille) UMR 7326, 13388, Marseille (France); Kajisawa, M., E-mail: jabran@ifa.hawaii.edu [Research Center for Space and Cosmic Evolution, Ehime University, Bunkyo-cho 2-5, Matsuyama, Ehime 790-8577 (Japan); Collaboration: COSMOS Team; and others

    2014-09-01

    We investigate the relationships between stellar mass, gas-phase oxygen abundance (metallicity), star formation rate (SFR), and dust content of star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 1.6 using Subaru/FMOS spectroscopy in the COSMOS field. The mass-metallicity (MZ) relation at z ∼ 1.6 is steeper than the relation observed in the local universe. The steeper MZ relation at z ∼ 1.6 is mainly due to evolution in the stellar mass where the MZ relation begins to turnover and flatten. This turnover mass is 1.2 dex larger at z ∼ 1.6. The most massive galaxies at z ∼ 1.6 (∼10{sup 11} M {sub ☉}) are enriched to the level observed in massive galaxies in the local universe. The MZ relation we measure at z ∼ 1.6 supports the suggestion of an empirical upper metallicity limit that does not significantly evolve with redshift. We find an anti-correlation between metallicity and SFR for galaxies at a fixed stellar mass at z ∼ 1.6, which is similar to trends observed in the local universe. We do not find a relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and SFR that is independent of redshift; rather, our data suggest that there is redshift evolution in this relation. We examine the relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and dust extinction, and find that at a fixed stellar mass, dustier galaxies tend to be more metal rich. From examination of the stellar masses, metallicities, SFRs, and dust extinctions, we conclude that stellar mass is most closely related to dust extinction.

  8. Relative and absolute risk in epidemiology and health physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldsmith, R.; Peterson, H.T. Jr.

    1983-01-01

    The health risk from ionizing radiation commonly is expressed in two forms: (1) the relative risk, which is the percentage increase in natural disease rate and (2) the absolute or attributable risk which represents the difference between the natural rate and the rate associated with the agent in question. Relative risk estimates for ionizing radiation generally are higher than those expressed as the absolute risk. This raises the question of which risk estimator is the most appropriate under different conditions. The absolute risk has generally been used for radiation risk assessment, although mathematical combinations such as the arithmetic or geometric mean of both the absolute and relative risks, have also been used. Combinations of the two risk estimators are not valid because the absolute and relative risk are not independent variables. Both human epidemiologic studies and animal experimental data can be found to illustrate the functional relationship between the natural cancer risk and the risk associated with radiation. This implies that the radiation risk estimate derived from one population may not be appropriate for predictions in another population, unless it is adjusted for the difference in the natural disease incidence between the two populations

  9. Candesartan ameliorates impaired fear extinction induced by innate immune activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiñones, María M; Maldonado, Lizette; Velazquez, Bethzaly; Porter, James T

    2016-02-01

    Patients with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) tend to show signs of a relatively increased inflammatory state suggesting that activation of the immune system may contribute to the development of PTSD. In the present study, we tested whether activation of the innate immune system can disrupt acquisition or recall of auditory fear extinction using an animal model of PTSD. Male adolescent rats received auditory fear conditioning in context A. The next day, an intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 100 μg/kg) prior to auditory fear extinction in context B impaired acquisition and recall of extinction. LPS (100 μg/kg) given after extinction training did not impair extinction recall suggesting that LPS did not affect consolidation of extinction. In contrast to cued fear extinction, contextual fear extinction was not affected by prior injection of LPS (100 μg/kg). Although LPS also reduced locomotion, we could dissociate the effects of LPS on extinction and locomotion by using a lower dose of LPS (50 μg/kg) which impaired locomotion without affecting extinction. In addition, 15 h after an injection of 250 μg/kg LPS in adult rats, extinction learning and recall were impaired without affecting locomotion. A sub-chronic treatment with candesartan, an angiotensin II type 1 receptor blocker, prevented the LPS-induced impairment of extinction in adult rats. Our results demonstrate that activation of the innate immune system can disrupt auditory fear extinction in adolescent and adult animals. These findings also provide direction for clinical studies of novel treatments that modulate the innate immune system for stress-related disorders like PTSD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. New data on the “silver-bell cricket” (Orthoptera, Gryllidae, a forgotten and overlooked cricket subject to a high risk of extinction in western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cordero, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Gryllodinus kerkennensis (Finot, 1893 presents a disjunct distribution in the Southern part of the Western Palearctic from North Africa up to Central Asia inhabiting arid, semidesert or desert land mostly associated with saline soils near water sources of lagoons or river beds depressions. The species was not recorded in Western Europe (Iberian Peninsula since 1936 and up to now it is currently excluded from all red list books for Orthopteran conservation. In this paper we report a few and localised populations of this cricket in Castilla-La Mancha inhabiting sandy shores of hiper-saline lagoons. We also provide information on its biometrics, phenology, ecology and behaviour including data of all collection specimens of the Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN. Because of its audible and particular song, we propose campaigns of night listening points to search for this species in other potential sites where it could be present. We believe that this species may be subject to a high risk of extinction in the Iberian Peninsula, and thus in the whole Western Europe. This is because of their restricted populations and the fragility of its specific habitat. We propose an urgent integral protection and the inclusion of the species in the lists of highly endangered invertebrate species.

    Gryllodinus kerkennensis (Finot, 1893 presenta una distribución disjunta a lo largo de la franja meridional y occidental del Paleártico, desde África del Norte hasta Asia Central, habitando zonas áridas, desiertos o semi-desiertos, principalmente asociado a suelos salinos próximos a masas de agua de lagunas o depresiones de cuencas fluviales. Esta especie no se registraba en Europa occidental (Península Ibérica desde 1936 y en la actualidad está excluida de todas las listas de libros rojos para la conservación de Ortópteros. En este trabajo describimos varias poblaciones aisladas de este grillo en Castilla-La Mancha en orillas

  11. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  12. Glutamatergic Targets for Enhancing Extinction Learning in Drug Addiction

    OpenAIRE

    Cleva, R.M; Gass, J.T; Widholm, J.J; Olive, M.F

    2010-01-01

    The persistence of the motivational salience of drug-related environmental cues and contexts is one of the most problematic obstacles to successful treatment of drug addiction. Behavioral approaches to extinguishing the salience of drug-associated cues, such as cue exposure therapy, have generally produced disappointing results which have been attributed to, among other things, the context specificity of extinction and inadequate consolidation of extinction learning. Extinction of any behavio...

  13. Compound stimulus extinction reduces spontaneous recovery in humans

    OpenAIRE

    Coelho, Cesar A.O.; Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Fear-related behaviors are prone to relapse following extinction. We tested in humans a compound extinction design (“deepened extinction”) shown in animal studies to reduce post-extinction fear recovery. Adult subjects underwent fear conditioning to a visual and an auditory conditioned stimulus (CSA and CSB, respectively) separately paired with an electric shock. The target CS (CSA) was extinguished alone followed by compound presentations of the extinguished CSA and nonextinguished CSB. Reco...

  14. Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarp Hansen, Anette; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

    2017-01-01

    The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

  15. Extinction of sodium fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malet, J.C.; Spagna, F.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents how, starting from a knowledge of sodium ignition and burning, principles for extinction (smothering catch trays, leak recuperation systems, powders) can be developed. These techniques applied in Superphenix 1 and PEC reactors have been tested in the ESMERALDA experimental program which is a joint French/Italian project. (author)

  16. Safety in relation to risk and benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddall, E.

    1985-01-01

    The proper definition and quantification of human safety is discussed and from this basis the historical development of our present very high standard of safety is traced. It is shown that increased safety is closely associated with increased wealth, and the quantitative relationship between then is derived from different sources of evidence. When this factor is applied to the production of wealth by industry, a safety benefit is indicated which exceeds the asserted risks by orders of magnitude. It is concluded that present policies and attitudes in respect to the safety of industry may be diametrically wrong. (orig.) [de

  17. Minimizing species extinctions through strategic planning for conservation fencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringma, Jeremy L; Wintle, Brendan; Fuller, Richard A; Fisher, Diana; Bode, Michael

    2017-10-01

    Conservation fences are an increasingly common management action, particularly for species threatened by invasive predators. However, unlike many conservation actions, fence networks are expanding in an unsystematic manner, generally as a reaction to local funding opportunities or threats. We conducted a gap analysis of Australia's large predator-exclusion fence network by examining translocation of Australian mammals relative to their extinction risk. To address gaps identified in species representation, we devised a systematic prioritization method for expanding the conservation fence network that explicitly incorporated population viability analysis and minimized expected species' extinctions. The approach was applied to New South Wales, Australia, where the state government intends to expand the existing conservation fence network. Existing protection of species in fenced areas was highly uneven; 67% of predator-sensitive species were unrepresented in the fence network. Our systematic prioritization yielded substantial efficiencies in that it reduced expected number of species extinctions up to 17 times more effectively than ad hoc approaches. The outcome illustrates the importance of governance in coordinating management action when multiple projects have similar objectives and rely on systematic methods rather than expanding networks opportunistically. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  19. Aging accelerates memory extinction and impairs memory restoration in Drosophila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Nannan; Guo, Aike; Li, Yan

    2015-05-15

    Age-related memory impairment (AMI) is a phenomenon observed from invertebrates to human. Memory extinction is proposed to be an active inhibitory modification of memory, however, whether extinction is affected in aging animals remains to be elucidated. Employing a modified paradigm for studying memory extinction in fruit flies, we found that only the stable, but not the labile memory component was suppressed by extinction, thus effectively resulting in higher memory loss in aging flies. Strikingly, young flies were able to fully restore the stable memory component 3 h post extinction, while aging flies failed to do so. In conclusion, our findings reveal that both accelerated extinction and impaired restoration contribute to memory impairment in aging animals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Pre-adolescent and adolescent mice are less sensitive to the effects of acute nicotine on extinction and spontaneous recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutlu, Munir Gunes; Zeid, Dana; Tumolo, Jessica M; Gould, Thomas J

    2018-04-01

    Adolescence is a period of high risk for the initiation of nicotine product usage and exposure to traumatic events. In parallel, nicotine exposure has been found to age-dependently modulate acquisition of contextual fear memories; however, it is unknown if adolescent nicotine exposure alters extinction of fear related memories. Age-related differences in sensitivity to the effects of nicotine on fear extinction could increase or decrease susceptibility to anxiety disorders. In this study, we examined the effects of acute nicotine administration on extinction and spontaneous recovery of contextual fear memories in pre-adolescent (PND 23), late adolescent (PND 38), and adult (PND 53) C57B6/J mice. Mice were first trained in a background contextual fear conditioning paradigm and given an intraperitoneal injection of one of four doses of nicotine (0.045, 0.09, 0.18, or 0.36mg/kg, freebase) prior to subsequent extinction or spontaneous recovery sessions. Results indicated that all acute nicotine doses impaired extinction of contextual fear in adult mice. Late adolescent mice exhibited impaired extinction of contextual fear only following higher doses of acute nicotine, and extinction of contextual fear was unaffected by acute nicotine exposure in pre-adolescent mice. Finally, acute nicotine exposure enhanced spontaneous recovery of fear memory, but only in adult mice. Overall, our results suggest that younger mice were less sensitive to nicotine's impairing effects on extinction of contextual fear and to nicotine's enhancing effects on spontaneous recovery of contextual fear memory. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Humorous Relations: Attentiveness, Pleasure and Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayo, Cris

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on the structures of humor and joke telling that require particular kinds of attentiveness and particular relationships between speaker and audience, or more specifically, between classmates. First, I will analyze the pedagogical and relational preconditions that are necessary for humor to work. If humor is to work well, the…

  2. Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

    OpenAIRE

    In-Fun Li; Yvonne Hsiung; Hui-Fen Hsing; Mei-Yu Lee; Te-Hsin Chang; Ming-Yuan Huang

    2016-01-01

    Background: As a vital issue in geriatric research, risk factors for falls were concluded to be multifactorial, and prevention has been mostly aimed at decreasing situational and environmental risks that cause and aggravate fall-related injuries, particularly within the institutions. While knowledge is limited about older patients' intrinsic determinants, the purpose of this study was to explore elderly Taiwanese's intrinsic risk factors associated with severe fall-related injuries. Method...

  3. Public attitudes towards industrial, work-related and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prescott-Clarke, P.

    1982-01-01

    Two reports describing work sponsored by the Health and Safety Executive are presented. The first describes a study of public attitudes towards industrial, work related, nuclear industry related and other risks. The second report describes public attitudes towards the acceptability of risks. (U.K.)

  4. Brain tumour risk in relation to mobile telephone use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Christoffer

    2010-01-01

    The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology.......The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology....

  5. Psychological and neural mechanisms of experimental extinction: a selective review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delamater, Andrew R; Westbrook, R Frederick

    2014-02-01

    The present review examines key psychological concepts in the study of experimental extinction and implications these have for an understanding of the underlying neurobiology of extinction learning. We suggest that many of the signature characteristics of extinction learning (spontaneous recovery, renewal, reinstatement, rapid reacquisition) can be accommodated by the standard associative learning theory assumption that extinction results in partial erasure of the original learning together with new inhibitory learning. Moreover, we consider recent behavioral and neural evidence that supports the partial erasure view of extinction, but also note shortcomings in our understanding of extinction circuits as these relate to the negative prediction error concept. Recent work suggests that common prediction error and stimulus-specific prediction error terms both may be required to explain neural plasticity both in acquisition and extinction learning. In addition, we suggest that many issues in the content of extinction learning have not been fully addressed in current research, but that neurobiological approaches should be especially helpful in addressing such issues. These include questions about the nature of extinction learning (excitatory CS-No US, inhibitory CS-US learning, occasion setting processes), especially as this relates to studies of the micro-circuitry of extinction, as well as its representational content (sensory, motivational, response). An additional understudied problem in extinction research is the role played by attention processes and their underlying neural networks, although some research and theory converge on the idea that extinction is accompanied by attention decrements (i.e., habituation-like processes). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Experience with dynamic reinforcement rates decreases resistance to extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Andrew R; Shahan, Timothy A

    2016-03-01

    The ability of organisms to detect reinforcer-rate changes in choice preparations is positively related to two factors: the magnitude of the change in rate and the frequency with which rates change. Gallistel (2012) suggested similar rate-detection processes are responsible for decreases in responding during operant extinction. Although effects of magnitude of change in reinforcer rate on resistance to extinction are well known (e.g., the partial-reinforcement-extinction effect), effects of frequency of changes in rate prior to extinction are unknown. Thus, the present experiments examined whether frequency of changes in baseline reinforcer rates impacts resistance to extinction. Pigeons pecked keys for variable-interval food under conditions where reinforcer rates were stable and where they changed within and between sessions. Overall reinforcer rates between conditions were controlled. In Experiment 1, resistance to extinction was lower following exposure to dynamic reinforcement schedules than to static schedules. Experiment 2 showed that resistance to presession feeding, a disruptor that should not involve change-detection processes, was unaffected by baseline-schedule dynamics. These findings are consistent with the suggestion that change detection contributes to extinction. We discuss implications of change-detection processes for extinction of simple and discriminated operant behavior and relate these processes to the behavioral-momentum based approach to understanding extinction. © 2016 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  7. Biogeographic and bathymetric determinants of brachiopod extinction and survival during the Late Ordovician mass extinction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Finnegan, Seth; Mac Ørum Rasmussen, Christian; Harper, David A. T.

    2016-01-01

    –Early Silurian genus extinctions and evaluate which extinction drivers are best supported by the data. The first (latest Katian) pulse of the LOME preferentially affected genera restricted to deeper waters or to relatively narrow (less than 35°) palaeolatitudinal ranges. This pattern is only observed...... in the latest Katian, suggesting that it reflects drivers unique to this interval. Extinction of exclusively deeper-water genera implies that changes in water mass properties such as dissolved oxygen content played an important role. Extinction of genera with narrow latitudinal ranges suggests that interactions...... between shifting climate zones and palaeobiogeography may also have been important. We test the latter hypothesis by estimating whether each genus would have been able to track habitats within its thermal tolerance range during the greenhouse–icehouse climate transition. Models including these estimates...

  8. The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turvey, Samuel T; Fritz, Susanne A

    2011-09-12

    Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.

  9. Assessing the risk of work-related international travel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druckman, Myles; Harber, Philip; Liu, Yihang; Quigley, Robert L

    2014-11-01

    To identify factors affecting the likelihood of requiring medical services during international business trips. Data from more than 800,000 international trips and medical assistance cases provided to 48 multinational corporations in 2009. Travel destination countries were grouped into four a priori risk-related categories. Travel to "low" medical risk countries in aggregate accounted for more hospitalizations and medical evacuations than travel to "high" medical risk countries. Nevertheless, the risk per trip was much higher for travel to higher medical risk countries. Corporations with employees on international travel should allocate sufficient resources to manage and ideally prevent medical issues during business travel. Travel medicine must focus on more than infectious diseases, and programs are necessary for both high- and low-risk regions. Improved understanding of travel-related needs determines resource allocation and risk mitigation efforts.

  10. Light extinction in the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laulainen, N.

    1992-06-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particles originating from natural sources, such as volcanos and sulfur-bearing gas emissions from the oceans, and from human sources, such as sulfur emissions from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning, strongly affect visual air quality and are suspected to significantly affect radiative climate forcing of the planet. During the daytime, aerosols obscure scenic vistas, while at night they diminish our ability to observe stellar objects. Scattering of light is the main means by which aerosols attenuate and redistribute light in the atmosphere and by which aerosols can alter and reduce visibility and potentially modify the energy balance of the planet. Trends and seasonal variability of atmospheric aerosol loading, such as column-integrated light extinction or optical depth, and how they may affect potential climate change have been difficult to quantify because there have been few observations made of important aerosol optical parameters, such as optical depth, over the globe and over time and often these are of uneven quality. To address questions related to possible climate change, there is a pressing need to acquire more high-quality aerosol optical depth data. Extensive deployment of improved solar radiometers over the next few years will provide higher-quality extinction data over a wider variety of locations worldwide. An often overlooked source of turbidity data, however, is available from astronomical observations, particularly stellar photoelectric photometry observations. With the exception of the Project ASTRA articles published almost 20 years ago, few of these data ever appear in the published literature. This paper will review the current status of atmospheric extinction observations, as highlighted by the ASTRA work and augmented by more recent solar radiometry measurements

  11. Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Gagarina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambient scent type (vanilla vs. peppermint and intensiveness (8 (1mg vs. 16 sprays (2mg of scent concentrate in the same room were manipulated as between subject variables. Risk aversion, effect of anchoring heuristic on bidding, and affect (risk and benefit heuristics were tracked as dependent variables. Scientific aim: To identify whether ambient scent type and intensiveness have effect on risk related behaviour. Findings: Evidence suggests that there are effects of ambient scent on risk related behaviour, thus fulfilling the missing gap to relate ambient environment to decision making heuristics when risks are involved. However, not all heuristics were affected by experimental conditions. Subjects were bidding significantly higher amounts under low anchor conditions, when peppermint scent was around (if compared to vanilla group. Affect risk was perceived as lower in peppermint ambient scent conditions, if compared to the control group. Intensity of ambient scent also had influence on affect risk: subjects perceived less risk under high scent intensity conditions. Conclusions: By manipulating ambient scent, marketers may reduce or increase consumers risk perception and behaviour and as a consequence influence their purchase decisions. Marketers could use peppermint scent in high intensiveness in the situations where they want consumers to undertake higher risks (expensive purchases, gambling, insurance, since stakes were higher under peppermint ambient scent condition

  12. THE SECONDARY EXTINCTION CORRECTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zachariasen, W. H.

    1963-03-15

    It is shown that Darwin's formula for the secondary extinction correction, which has been universally accepted and extensively used, contains an appreciable error in the x-ray diffraction case. The correct formula is derived. As a first order correction for secondary extinction, Darwin showed that one should use an effective absorption coefficient mu + gQ where an unpolarized incident beam is presumed. The new derivation shows that the effective absorption coefficient is mu + 2gQ(1 + cos/sup 4/2 theta )/(1 plus or minus cos/sup 2/2 theta )/s up 2/, which gives mu + gQ at theta =0 deg and theta = 90 deg , but mu + 2gQ at theta = 45 deg . Darwin's theory remains valid when applied to neutron diffraction. (auth)

  13. Galactic dust and extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyngaa, G.

    1979-01-01

    The ratio R between visual extinction and colour excess, is slightly larger than 3 and does not vary much throughout our part of the Galaxy. The distribution of dust in the galactic plane shows, on the large scale, a gradient with higher colour excesses towards l=50 0 than towards l=230 0 . On the smaller scale, much of the dust responsible for extinction is situated in clouds which tend to group together. The correlation between positions of interstellar dust clouds and positions of spiral tracers seems rather poor in our Galaxy. However, concentrated dark clouds as well as extended regions of dust show an inclined distribution similar to the Gould belt of bright stars. (Auth.)

  14. Fear extinction requires infralimbic cortex projections to the basolateral amygdala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloodgood, Daniel W; Sugam, Jonathan A; Holmes, Andrew; Kash, Thomas L

    2018-03-06

    Fear extinction involves the formation of a new memory trace that attenuates fear responses to a conditioned aversive memory, and extinction impairments are implicated in trauma- and stress-related disorders. Previous studies in rodents have found that the infralimbic prefrontal cortex (IL) and its glutamatergic projections to the basolateral amygdala (BLA) and basomedial amygdala (BMA) instruct the formation of fear extinction memories. However, it is unclear whether these pathways are exclusively involved in extinction, or whether other major targets of the IL, such as the nucleus accumbens (NAc) also play a role. To address this outstanding issue, the current study employed a combination of electrophysiological and chemogenetic approaches in mice to interrogate the role of IL-BLA and IL-NAc pathways in extinction. Specifically, we used patch-clamp electrophysiology coupled with retrograde tracing to examine changes in neuronal activity of the IL and prelimbic cortex (PL) projections to both the BLA and NAc following fear extinction. We found that extinction produced a significant increase in the intrinsic excitability of IL-BLA projection neurons, while extinction appeared to reverse fear-induced changes in IL-NAc projection neurons. To establish a causal counterpart to these observations, we then used a pathway-specific Designer Receptors Exclusively Activated by Designer Drugs (DREADD) strategy to selectively inhibit PFC-BLA projection neurons during extinction acquisition. Using this approach, we found that DREADD-mediated inhibition of PFC-BLA neurons during extinction acquisition impaired subsequent extinction retrieval. Taken together, our findings provide further evidence for a critical contribution of the IL-BLA neural circuit to fear extinction.

  15. Fluoxetine Facilitates Fear Extinction Through Amygdala Endocannabinoids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunduz-Cinar, Ozge; Flynn, Shaun; Brockway, Emma; Kaugars, Katherine; Baldi, Rita; Ramikie, Teniel S; Cinar, Resat; Kunos, George; Patel, Sachin; Holmes, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Pharmacologically elevating brain endocannabinoids (eCBs) share anxiolytic and fear extinction-facilitating properties with classical therapeutics, including the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor, fluoxetine. There are also known functional interactions between the eCB and serotonin systems and preliminary evidence that antidepressants cause alterations in brain eCBs. However, the potential role of eCBs in mediating the facilitatory effects of fluoxetine on fear extinction has not been established. Here, to test for a possible mechanistic contribution of eCBs to fluoxetine's proextinction effects, we integrated biochemical, electrophysiological, pharmacological, and behavioral techniques, using the extinction-impaired 129S1/Sv1mJ mouse strain. Chronic fluoxetine treatment produced a significant and selective increase in levels of anandamide in the BLA, and an associated decrease in activity of the anandamide-catabolizing enzyme, fatty acid amide hydrolase. Slice electrophysiological recordings showed that fluoxetine-induced increases in anandamide were associated with the amplification of eCB-mediated tonic constraint of inhibitory, but not excitatory, transmission in the BLA. Behaviorally, chronic fluoxetine facilitated extinction retrieval in a manner that was prevented by systemic or BLA-specific blockade of CB1 receptors. In contrast to fluoxetine, citalopram treatment did not increase BLA eCBs or facilitate extinction. Taken together, these findings reveal a novel, obligatory role for amygdala eCBs in the proextinction effects of a major pharmacotherapy for trauma- and stressor-related disorders and anxiety disorders. PMID:26514583

  16. Selection, subdivision and extinction and recolonization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherry, Joshua L

    2004-02-01

    In a subdivided population, the interaction between natural selection and stochastic change in allele frequency is affected by the occurrence of local extinction and subsequent recolonization. The relative importance of selection can be diminished by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. Results are presented for subdivided populations with extinction and recolonization where there is more than one founding allele after extinction, where these may tend to come from the same source deme, where the number of founding alleles is variable or the founders make unequal contributions, and where there is dominance for fitness or local frequency dependence. The behavior of a selected allele in a subdivided population is in all these situations approximately the same as that of an allele with different selection parameters in an unstructured population with a different size. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability in the case of genic selection, is always decreased by extinction and recolonization, so that deleterious alleles are more likely to fix and advantageous alleles less likely to do so. The importance of dominance or frequency dependence is also altered by extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations.

  17. Brain structural connectivity and context-dependent extinction memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermann, Andrea; Stark, Rudolf; Blecker, Carlo R; Milad, Mohammed R; Merz, Christian J

    2017-08-01

    Extinction of conditioned fear represents an important mechanism in the treatment of anxiety disorders. Return of fear after successful extinction or exposure therapy in patients with anxiety disorders might be linked to poor temporal or contextual generalization of extinction due to individual differences in brain structural connectivity. The goal of this magnetic resonance imaging study was therefore to investigate the association of context-dependent extinction recall with brain structural connectivity. Diffusion-tensor imaging was used to determine the fractional anisotropy as a measure of white matter structural integrity of fiber tracts connecting central brain regions of the fear and extinction circuit (uncinate fasciculus, cingulum). Forty-five healthy men participated in a two-day fear conditioning experiment with fear acquisition in context A and extinction learning in context B on the first day. Extinction recall in the extinction context as well as renewal in the acquisition context and a novel context C took place one day later. Renewal of conditioned fear (skin conductance responses) in the acquisition context was associated with higher structural integrity of the hippocampal part of the cingulum. Enhanced structural integrity of the cingulum might be related to stronger hippocampal modulation of the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, a region important for modulating conditioned fear output by excitatory projections to the amygdala. This finding underpins the crucial role of individual differences in the structural integrity of relevant fiber tracts for context-dependent extinction recall and return of fear after exposure therapy in anxiety disorders. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. About one of possible cosmic causes of extinction of organisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kagramanov, Yu.R.

    2004-01-01

    Based on the analysis of diverse causes of extinction of organisms in the history of the Earth and a new hypothesis of cosmic origin of oil, a suggested new possible cause of such extinction is related to intoxication with hydrocarbons arriving from the outer space

  19. A comprehensive genomic history of extinct and living elephants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palkopoulou, Eleftheria; Lipson, Mark; Mallick, Swapan

    2018-01-01

    Elephantids are the world's most iconic megafaunal family, yet there is no comprehensive genomic assessment of their relationships. We report a total of 14 genomes, including 2 from the American mastodon, which is an extinct elephantid relative, and 12 spanning all three extant and three extinct...

  20. Evaluation of energy related risk acceptance (APHA energy task force)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, A.P.

    1977-01-01

    Living in a technological society with large energy requirements involves a number of related actities with attendant health risks, both to the working and to the general public. Therefore, the formulation of some general principles for risk acceptance is necessary. In addition to maximizing benefits and minimizing risk, relevant considerations must be made about the perception of risk as voluntary or involuntary, the number of persons collectively at risk at any one occasion, and the extent to which a risk is a familiar one. With regard to a given benefit, such as a given amount of energy, comparisons of the risks of alternate modes of production may be utilized. However, cost-benefit consideration is essential to the amelioration of current or prospective risks. This is unusual, since it is based on some estimate of the monetary value per premature death averted. It is proposed that increased longevity would be a more satisfactory measure. On a societal basis, large expenditures for additional energy-related pollution control do not appear justifiable since much larger, nonenergy-related health risks are relatively underaddressed. Knowledgeable health professionals could benefit the public by imparting authoritative information in this area

  1. The fossil record of the sixth extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plotnick, Roy E; Smith, Felisa A; Lyons, S Kathleen

    2016-05-01

    Comparing the magnitude of the current biodiversity crisis with those in the fossil record is difficult without an understanding of differential preservation. Integrating data from palaeontological databases with information on IUCN status, ecology and life history characteristics of contemporary mammals, we demonstrate that only a small and biased fraction of threatened species (fossil record, compared with 20% of non-threatened species. We find strong taphonomic biases related to body size and geographic range. Modern species with a fossil record tend to be large and widespread and were described in the 19(th) century. The expected magnitude of the current extinction based only on species with a fossil record is about half of that of one based on all modern species; values for genera are similar. The record of ancient extinctions may be similarly biased, with many species having originated and gone extinct without leaving a tangible record. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  2. Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

    1999-01-01

    This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event

  3. Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M. [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology

    1999-12-01

    This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event.

  4. Effects of trust and governance on relational risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooteboom, B.; Berger, J.; Noorderhaven, N.G.

    In transaction cost economics, foist has been treated as redundant or even misleading. This study tested the effects of governance and trust the risk perceived by agents of firms in alliances. Two dimensions of relational risk were assessed: the probability that something will go wrong and the size

  5. Beyond the contract: managing risk in supply chain relations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, H.C.; Sakaguchi, J.; Kawai, T.

    2013-01-01

    As a consequence of the development of intensified relations with suppliers, for many firms the supply chain has become a significant source of risk exposure. In this paper we examine firms' use of control practices to manage risks associated with intensified collaboration with supply chain

  6. Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Alina Gagarina; Indre Pikturniene

    2016-01-01

    The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla) and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambi...

  7. Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  8. The role of the medial prefrontal cortex in trace fear extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwapis, Janine L.; Jarome, Timothy J.

    2015-01-01

    The extinction of delay fear conditioning relies on a neural circuit that has received much attention and is relatively well defined. Whether this established circuit also supports the extinction of more complex associations, however, is unclear. Trace fear conditioning is a better model of complex relational learning, yet the circuit that supports extinction of this memory has received very little attention. Recent research has indicated that trace fear extinction requires a different neural circuit than delay extinction; trace extinction requires the participation of the retrosplenial cortex, but not the amygdala, as noted in a previous study. Here, we tested the roles of the prelimbic and infralimbic regions of the medial prefrontal cortex in trace and delay fear extinction by blocking NMDA receptors during extinction learning. We found that the prelimbic cortex is necessary for trace, but not for delay fear extinction, whereas the infralimbic cortex is involved in both types of extinction. These results are consistent with the idea that trace fear associations require plasticity in multiple cortical areas for successful extinction. Further, the infralimbic cortex appears to play a role in extinction regardless of whether the animal was initially trained in trace or delay conditioning. Together, our results provide new information about how the neural circuits supporting trace and delay fear extinction differ. PMID:25512576

  9. Modelling interstellar extinction: Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.P.

    1988-01-01

    Several methods of calculating the extinction of porous silicate grains are discussed, these include effective medium theories and hollow spherical shells. Porous silicate grains are shown to produce enhanced infrared, ultraviolet and far-ultraviolet extinction and this effect can be used to reduce the abundance of carbon required to match the average interstellar extinction, however, matching the visual extinction is rather more problematical. We have shown that the enhanced extinction at long and short wavelengths have different origins, and have explained why the visual extinction is little affected by porosity. The implications of porous grains in the interstellar medium are discussed with particular reference to surface chemistry, the polarization of starlight, and their dynamical evolution. (author)

  10. Extinction Events Can Accelerate Evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehman, Joel; Miikkulainen, Risto

    2015-01-01

    Extinction events impact the trajectory of biological evolution significantly. They are often viewed as upheavals to the evolutionary process. In contrast, this paper supports the hypothesis that although they are unpredictably destructive, extinction events may in the long term accelerate...... evolution by increasing evolvability. In particular, if extinction events extinguish indiscriminately many ways of life, indirectly they may select for the ability to expand rapidly through vacated niches. Lineages with such an ability are more likely to persist through multiple extinctions. Lending...... computational support for this hypothesis, this paper shows how increased evolvability will result from simulated extinction events in two computational models of evolved behavior. The conclusion is that although they are destructive in the short term, extinction events may make evolution more prolific...

  11. Rescuing Ecosystems from Extinction Cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahasrabudhe, Sagar; Motter, Adilson

    2010-03-01

    Food web perturbations stemming from climate change, overexploitation, invasive species, and natural disasters often cause an initial loss of species that results in a cascade of secondary extinctions. Using a predictive modeling framework, here we will present a systematic network-based approach to reduce the number of secondary extinctions. We will show that the extinction of one species can often be compensated by the concurrent removal of a second specific species, which is a counter-intuitive effect not previously tested in complex food webs. These compensatory perturbations frequently involve long-range interactions that are not a priori evident from local predator-prey relationships. Strikingly, in numerous cases even the early removal of a species that would eventually be extinct by the cascade is found to significantly reduce the number of cascading extinctions. Other nondestructive interventions based on partial removals and growth suppression and/or mortality increase are shown to sometimes prevent all secondary extinctions.

  12. Climate risk assessment in museums : degradation risks determined from temperature and relative humidity data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martens, M.H.J.

    2012-01-01

    The main subject of this thesis is the determination of climate risks to objects in museums on the basis of measured and/or simulated temperature and relative humidity data. The focus is on the quantification of climate related risks for the preservation quality of indoor climate in Dutch museums.

  13. The effects of compound stimulus extinction and inhibition of noradrenaline reuptake on the renewal of alcohol seeking

    OpenAIRE

    Furlong, T M; Pan, M J; Corbit, L H

    2015-01-01

    Alcohol-related stimuli can trigger relapse of alcohol-seeking behaviors even after extended periods of abstinence. Extinction of such stimuli can reduce their impact on relapse; however, the expression of extinction can be disrupted when testing occurs outside the context where extinction learning took place, an effect termed renewal. Behavioral and pharmacological methods have recently been shown to augment extinction learning; yet, it is not known whether the improved expression of extinct...

  14. Acoustic integrated extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Norris, Andrew N.

    2015-01-01

    The integrated extinction (IE) is defined as the integral of the scattering cross section as a function of wavelength. Sohl et al. (2007 J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 122, 3206–3210. (doi:10.1121/1.2801546)) derived an IE expression for acoustic scattering that is causal, i.e. the scattered wavefront in the forward direction arrives later than the incident plane wave in the background medium. The IE formula was based on electromagnetic results, for which scattering is causal by default. Here, we der...

  15. Mass extinctions of Earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, B.; Fernandez, P.; Pereira, B.

    2015-01-01

    Throughout the history of our planet, there have been global phenomena which have led to the disappearance of a large number of species: It is what is known as mass or massive extinctions. This article will make a tour of these large events, from the most remote antiquity to the present day. Today we find ourselves immersed in a process unprecedented since we are eyewitnesses and, more important still, an active part in the decision-making process to try to mitigate their effects. (Author)

  16. Mass extinctions and supernova explosions

    OpenAIRE

    Korschinek, Gunther

    2016-01-01

    A nearby supernova (SN) explosion could have negatively influenced life on Earth, maybe even been responsible for mass extinctions. Mass extinction poses a significant extinction of numerous species on Earth, as recorded in the paleontologic, paleoclimatic, and geological record of our planet. Depending on the distance between the Sun and the SN, different types of threats have to be considered, such as ozone depletion on Earth, causing increased exposure to the Sun's ultraviolet radiation, o...

  17. Risk communication related to animal products derived from biotechnology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrea, D

    2005-04-01

    Previous chapters of this review have dealt with the key considerations related to the application of biotechnology in veterinary science and animal production. This article explores the theory and practice of risk communication and sets out the basic principles for good risk communication when dealing with new technologies, uncertainty, and cautious and sceptical consumers. After failure to communicate with consumers and stakeholders about the risk to human health from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the 1990s, Government Agencies in the United Kingdom have made significant improvements in risk communication. The official inquiry that followed the BSE crisis concluded that a policy of openness was the correct approach, and this article emphasises the importance of consultation, consistency and transparency. There are, however, many different factors that affect public perception of risk (religious, political, social, cultural, etc.) and developing effective risk communication strategies must take all of these complex issues into consideration.

  18. Extinction of H II regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Israel, F.P.; Kennicutt, R.C.

    1980-01-01

    Visual extinction of H II regions in nine nearby galaxies as derived from the ratio of the radio continuum emission to H-alpha emission is systematically larger than visual extinction deduced from the Balmer lines alone, if one assumes a value Av/E(B-V) 3. An optically-limited sample of about 30 extragalactic H II regions has a mean extinction of 1.7 m in the visual while about 1.2 m is not seen in the reddening of the Balmer lines. Both reddening and extinction decreases with increasing galactic radius, at least for M33 and M101

  19. A reconciliation of extinction theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabine, T.M.

    1988-01-01

    The differences between previous theoretical treatments of extinction based on the Darwin intensity equations arise because of the different functional form chosen for the coupling constant σ. When the same function is used these theories make closely similar predictions. It is shown that a limiting condition on integrated intensity as the crystal size increases puts restrictions on the functions which may be used. A Lorentzian or Fresnellian function can be used for primary extinction while secondary extinction requires a Gaussian, rectangular or triangular function. An analytical expression is given for the variation in the value of the extinction factor with scattering angle. (orig.)

  20. Wavelength dependent measurement of extinction in an extended-face crystal of zinc selenide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevenson, A.W.; Barnea, Z.

    1982-01-01

    The effect of extinction on Bijvoet ratios is demonstrated. It is suggested that an observed anomaly in the wavelength dependence of ZnSe Bijvoet ratios is due to the Borrmann effect. It is shown that wavelength dependent studies of extinction may be used to obtain extinction parameters from relative intensity measurements without resorting to a refined scale factor

  1. Impaired fear extinction learning and cortico-amygdala circuit abnormalities in a common genetic mouse strain

    OpenAIRE

    Hefner, Kathryn; Whittle, Nigel; Juhasz, Jaynann; Norcross, Maxine; Karlsson, Rose-Marie; Saksida, Lisa M.; Bussey, Timothy J.; Singewald, Nicolas; Holmes, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Fear extinction is a form of new learning that results in the inhibition of conditioned fear. Trait deficits in fear extinction are a risk factor for anxiety disorders. There are few examples of naturally-occurring animal models of impaired extinction. The present study compared fear extinction in a panel of inbred mouse strains. This strain survey revealed an impairment in fear extinction in 129/SvImJ (129S1). The phenotypic specificity of this deficit was evaluated by comparing 129S1 and C5...

  2. Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

    2018-01-01

    Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

  3. Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

    2018-02-01

    Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

  4. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  5. Alcohol-Related Problems And High Risk Sexual Behaviour In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There was a significant association between alcohol-related problems and risky sexual behavior. Alcohol-related problems are fairly common in people already infected with HIV/AIDS and are associated with high-risk sexual behavior. Thus, screening and treatment should be part of an effective HIV intervention program.

  6. Risk of cancer in relatives of patients with myotonic dystrophy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, M; Diaz, L J; Gørtz, S

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Myotonic dystrophies (DM) are autosomal dominantly inherited neuromuscular disorders caused by unstable nucleotide repeat expansions. DM and cancer have been associated, but the pathogenesis behind the association remains unclear. It could relate to derived effects of the DM...... genotype in which case non-DM relatives of DM patients would not be expected to be at increased risk of cancer. To elucidate this, a population-based cohort study investigating risk of cancer in relatives of DM patients was conducted. METHODS: DM was identified using the National Danish Patient Registry...

  7. How humans drive speciation as well as extinction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bull, Joseph William; Maron, M.

    2016-01-01

    influence upon divergence in microorganisms. Even if human activities resulted in no net loss of species diversity by balancing speciation and extinction rates, this would probably be deemed unacceptable. We discuss why, based upon ‘no net loss’ conservation literature— considering phylogenetic diversity...... and other metrics, risk aversion, taboo trade-offs and spatial heterogeneity. We conclude that evaluating speciation alongside extinction could result in more nuanced understanding of biosphere trends, clarifying what it is we actually value about biodiversity....

  8. Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2006-01-01

    to nearest major road had no significant effect. CONCLUSIONS: The cause(s) or exposure(s) responsible for the urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk were closer related to the degree of urbanization than to the geographical distance to nearest major road. Traffic related exposures might thus be less......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample...

  9. Risk Analysis of Flare Flame-out Condition in a Gas Process Facility Analyse des risques des conditions d’extinction de torche au sein d’une installation de traitement de gaz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zadakbar O.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Flaring is a common method of disposal of flammable waste gases in the downstream industries. Flare flame out (flame lift-off or blow-outs often occurs causing toxic vapors to discharge. The toxic gases released may have hazardous effects on the surrounding environment. To study the effect of inhalation exposure of these toxic gases on human health, the four steps of the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency framework with the field data to quantify the cancer and non-cancer health risks are integrated in this paper. As a part of exposure assessment, gas dispersion modeling using AERMOD and UDM-PHAST is applied in two different conditions of normal flaring and flare flame out during a particular climate condition in Khangiran region. Recommendations to avoid flare flame out conditions are also presented here. Le torchage est un procédé courant d’élimination des gaz résiduaires inflammables dans les industries de traitement. L’extinction de la torche (par décollage ou soufflage de flamme provoque souvent une émission de vapeurs toxiques. Ces gaz toxiques libérés peuvent présenter des effets dangereux sur le milieu environnant. Pour étudier l’effet d’une exposition par inhalation de ces gaz toxiques sur la santé, cet article croise les quatre étapes de la démarche de l’EPA (Environmental Protection Agency, Agence de protection de l’environnement avec les données d’exploitation afin de quantifier le risque sanitaire cancérologique et non cancérologique. Dans le cadre de l’estimation d’exposition, une modélisation de dispersion des gaz utilisant AERMOD et UDM-PHAST est évaluée dans deux configurations différentes de torchage normal et d’extinction de torche à l’occasion de conditions climatiques particulières dans la région du Khangiran. L’article propose également des recommandations destinées à éviter les conditions d’une extinction de flamme de torche.

  10. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

  11. Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

    2013-02-01

    A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

  12. Risk of bleeding related to antithrombotic treatment in cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Rikke; Olesen, Jonas B; Charlot, Mette

    2012-01-01

    Antithrombotic therapy is a cornerstone of treatment in patients with cardiovascular disease with bleeding being the most feared complication. This review describes the risk of bleeding related to different combinations of antithrombotic drugs used for cardiovascular disease: acute coronary...... syndrome (ACS), atrial fibrillation (AF), cerebrovascular (CVD) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Different risk assessment schemes and bleeding definitions are compared. The HAS-BLED risk score is recommended in patients with AF and in ACS patients with AF. In patients with ACS with or without...

  13. Global extinction in spiral galaxies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tully, RB; Pierce, MJ; Saunders, W; Verheijen, MAW; Witchalls, PL

    Magnitude-limited samples of spiral galaxies drawn from the Ursa Major and Pisces Clusters are used to determine their extinction properties as a function of inclination. Imaging photometry is available for 87 spirals in the B, R, I, and K' bands. Extinction causes systematic scatter in

  14. Local population extinction and vitality of an epiphytic lichen in fragmented old-growth forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockinger, Erik; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-07-01

    The population dynamics of organisms living in short-lived habitats will largely depend on the turnover of habitat patches. It has been suggested that epiphytes, whose host plants can be regarded as habitat patches, often form such patch-tracking populations. However, very little is known about the long-term fate of epiphyte individuals and populations. We estimated life span and assessed environmental factors influencing changes in vitality, fertility, abundance, and distribution of the epiphytic lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria on two spatial scales, individual trees and forest patches, over a period of approximately 10 years in 66 old-growth forest fragments. The lichen had gone extinct from 7 of the 66 sites (13.0%) where it was found 10 years earlier, even though the sites remained unchanged. The risk of local population extinction increased with decreasing population size. In contrast to the decrease in the number of occupied trees and sites, the mean area of the lichen per tree increased by 43.0%. The number of trees with fertile ramets of L. pulmonaria increased from 7 (approximately 1%) to 61 (approximately 10%) trees, and the number of forest fragments with fertile ramets increased from 4 to 23 fragments. The mean annual rate of L. pulmonaria extinction at the tree level was estimated to be 2.52%, translating into an expected lifetime of 39.7 years. This disappearance rate is higher than estimated mortality rates for potential host trees. The risk of extinction at the tree level was significantly positively related to tree circumference and differed between tree species. The probability of presence of fertile ramets increased significantly with local population size. Our results show a long expected lifetime of Lobaria pulmonaria ramets on individual trees and a recent increase in vitality, probably due to decreasing air pollution. The population is, however, declining slowly even though remaining stands are left uncut, which we interpret as an

  15. ULTRAVIOLET EXTINCTION AT HIGH GALACTIC LATITUDES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peek, J. E. G.; Schiminovich, David, E-mail: jegpeek@gmail.com [Department of Astronomy, Columbia University, New York, NY (United States)

    2013-07-01

    In order to study the properties and effects of high Galactic latitude dust, we present an analysis of 373,303 galaxies selected from the Galaxy Evolution Explorer All-Sky Survey and Wide-field Infrared Explorer All-Sky Data Release. By examining the variation in aggregate ultraviolet colors and number density of these galaxies, we measure the extinction curve at high latitude. We additionally consider a population of spectroscopically selected galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey to measure extinction in the optical. We find that dust at high latitude is neither quantitatively nor qualitatively consistent with standard reddening laws. Extinction in the FUV and NUV is {approx}10% and {approx}35% higher than expected, with significant variation across the sky. We find that no single R{sub V} parameter fits both the optical and ultraviolet extinction at high latitude, and that while both show detectable variation across the sky, these variations are not related. We propose that the overall trends we detect likely stem from an increase in very small silicate grains in the interstellar medium.

  16. ULTRAVIOLET EXTINCTION AT HIGH GALACTIC LATITUDES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peek, J. E. G.; Schiminovich, David

    2013-01-01

    In order to study the properties and effects of high Galactic latitude dust, we present an analysis of 373,303 galaxies selected from the Galaxy Evolution Explorer All-Sky Survey and Wide-field Infrared Explorer All-Sky Data Release. By examining the variation in aggregate ultraviolet colors and number density of these galaxies, we measure the extinction curve at high latitude. We additionally consider a population of spectroscopically selected galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey to measure extinction in the optical. We find that dust at high latitude is neither quantitatively nor qualitatively consistent with standard reddening laws. Extinction in the FUV and NUV is ∼10% and ∼35% higher than expected, with significant variation across the sky. We find that no single R V parameter fits both the optical and ultraviolet extinction at high latitude, and that while both show detectable variation across the sky, these variations are not related. We propose that the overall trends we detect likely stem from an increase in very small silicate grains in the interstellar medium.

  17. Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

    2016-02-01

    Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

  18. Extinction of Harrington's mountain goat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mead, J.I.; Martin, P.S.; Euler, R.C.; Long, A.; Jull, A.J.T.; Toolin, L.J.; Donahue, D.J.; Linick, T.W.

    1986-01-01

    Keratinous horn sheaths of the extinct Harrington's mountain goat, Oreamnos harringtoni, were recovered at or near the surface of dry caves of the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Twenty-three separate specimens from two caves were dated nondestructively by the tandem accelerator mass spectrometer (TAMS). Both the TAMS and the conventional dates indicate that Harrington's mountain goat occupied the Grand Canyon for at least 19,000 years prior to becoming extinct by 11,160 +/- 125 radiocarbon years before present. The youngest average radiocarbon dates on Shasta ground sloths, Nothrotheriops shastensis, from the region are not significantly younger than those on extinct mountain goats. Rather than sequential extinction with Harrington's mountain goat disappearing from the Grand Canyon before the ground sloths, as one might predict in view of evidence of climatic warming at the time, the losses were concurrent. Both extinctions coincide with the regional arrival of Clovis hunters

  19. Extinction of metal fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mellottee, H.

    1977-01-01

    The main points of a large bibliography on liquid and solid metal fires are set out. The various methods used to fight these fires are presented; covering by powders is specially emphasized. Since this method has promising results, the various possible techniques, extinction by cooling the metal, by blanketing, by formation of a continuous insulating layer (by fusion or pyrolysis of a powder) or by a surface reaction between powder and metal are studied. The conditions of conservation and use of powders are outlined, then the various powders are described: inert powders, powders undergoing a physical transformation (fusion or vitrification of an organic compound, fusion of eutectic inorganic mixtures), multiple effect powders. Precise examples are quoted [fr

  20. Measuring Extinction with ALE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, Peter C.; McGraw, J. T.; Gimmestad, G. G.; Roberts, D.; Stewart, J.; Smith, J.; Fitch, J.

    2007-12-01

    ALE (Astronomical LIDAR for Extinction) is deployed at the University of New Mexico's (UNM) Campus Observatory in Albuquerque, NM. It has begun a year-long testing phase prior deployment at McDonald Observatory in support of the CCD/Transit Instrument II (CTI-II). ALE is designed to produce a high-precision measurement of atmospheric absorption and scattering above the observatory site every ten minutes of every moderately clear night. LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) is the VIS/UV/IR analog of radar, using a laser, telescope and time-gated photodetector instead of a radio transmitter, dish and receiver. In the case of ALE -- an elastic backscatter LIDAR -- 20ns-long, eye-safe laser pulses are launched 2500 times per second from a 0.32m transmitting telescope co-mounted with a 50mm short-range receiver on an alt-az mounted 0.67m long-range receiver. Photons from the laser pulse are scattered and absorbed as the pulse propagates through the atmosphere, a portion of which are scattered into the field of view of the short- and long-range receiver telescopes and detected by a photomultiplier. The properties of a given volume of atmosphere along the LIDAR path are inferred from both the altitude-resolved backscatter signal as well as the attenuation of backscatter signal from altitudes above it. We present ALE profiles from the commissioning phase and demonstrate some of the astronomically interesting atmospheric information that can be gleaned from these data, including, but not limited to, total line-of-sight extinction. This project is funded by NSF Grant 0421087.

  1. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  2. Heterogenous Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution and Relative Risk Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia; Gayle, Wayne-Roy

    This paper investigates the existence and degree of variation across house holds and over time in the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) and the coefficient of relative risk aversion (RRA) that is generated by habit forming preferences. To do so, we develop a new nonlinear GMM estimator...... in food consumption. Using these estimates, we develop bounds for the expectation of the implied heterogenous intertemporal elasticity of substitution and relative risk aversion that account for measurement errors and compute asymptotically valid confidence intervals on these bounds. We find...

  3. Cancer-related fatigue: Mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Julienne E.

    2015-01-01

    Fatigue is one of the most common and distressing side effects of cancer and its treatment, and may persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and may be a risk factor for reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in cancer patients has been well characterized, and there is growing understanding of underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation has emerged as a key biological pathway for cancer-related fatigue, with studies documenting links between markers of inflammation and fatigue before, during, and particularly after treatment. There is considerable variability in the experience of cancer-related fatigue that is not explained by disease- or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors may play an important role in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have begun to identify genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioral risk factors for cancer-related fatigue. Given the multi-factorial nature of cancer-related fatigue, a variety of intervention approaches have been examined in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. Although there is currently no gold standard for treating fatigue, several of these approaches have shown beneficial effects and can be recommended to patients. This report provides a state of the science review of mechanisms, risk factors, and interventions for cancer-related fatigue, with a focus on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients. PMID:25113839

  4. Causes and consequences of range size variation: the influence of traits, speciation, and extinction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven M. Vamosi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The tremendous variation in species richness observed among related clades across the tree of life has long caught the imagination of biologists. Recently, there has been growing attention paid to the possible contribution of range size variation, either alone or in combination with putative key innovations, to these patterns. Here, we review three related topics relevant to range size evolution, speciation, and extinction. First, we provide a brief overview of the debate surrounding patterns and mechanisms for phylogenetic signal in range size. Second, we discuss some recent findings regarding the joint influence of traits and range size on diversification. Finally, we present the preliminary results of a study investigating whether range size is negatively correlated with contemporary extinction risk in flowering plants.

  5. Are we overestimating the stroke risk related to contraceptive pills?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gompel, Anne; Plu-Bureau, Genevieve

    2014-02-01

    Hormonal contraceptives are used by million of women worldwide. Ischemic stroke is one of the major harmful effects of hormonal contraceptives, but remains a very uncommon disease before menopause. The increased risk of stroke under third and fourth-generation contraceptive pills and nonoral contraceptives has been recently highlighted. Given the benefits associated with combined hormonal contraceptives (COCs), it is important to properly evaluate their risks in order to provide a better benefit/risk balance to young women. Scarce studies addressing the rates of stroke in young women suggest that the fraction attributable to the contraceptive pill remains low. In contrast, there is abundant literature on the relative risks of stroke under COCs. The risk of arterial disease seems to be similar among users of second and third-generation pills, drospirenone-containing pills and nonoral hormonal contraceptives. Progestin-only contraceptives do not appear to be associated with an increased risk of stroke. New formulations of hormonal contraceptives are not safer than second-generation COCs. Even if the absolute numbers of strokes attributable to hormonal contraceptives is very low, stringent selection of patients should help to reduce the events still more, and progestin-only contraceptives/nonhormonal methods should be preferred in cases of associated risk factors.

  6. Risk of bleeding related to antithrombotic treatment in cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Rikke; Olesen, Jonas B; Charlot, Mette

    2012-01-01

    Antithrombotic therapy is a cornerstone of treatment in patients with cardiovascular disease with bleeding being the most feared complication. This review describes the risk of bleeding related to different combinations of antithrombotic drugs used for cardiovascular disease: acute coronary...... syndrome (ACS), atrial fibrillation (AF), cerebrovascular (CVD) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Different risk assessment schemes and bleeding definitions are compared. The HAS-BLED risk score is recommended in patients with AF and in ACS patients with AF. In patients with ACS with or without...... a stent dual antiplatelet therapy with a P2Y12 receptor antagonist and acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) is recommended for 12 months, preferable with prasugrel or ticagrelor unless there is an additional indication of warfarin or increased risk of bleeding. In patients with AF, warfarin is recommended...

  7. Human capital and risk aversion in relational incentive contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kvaloey, Ola

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines a self-enforced relational incentive contract between a risk neutral principal and a risk averse agent where the agent's human capital is essential in ex post realization of values. I analyse the effect of outside options on the optimal bonus level, showing how the presence of ex post outside options may impede desirable degrees of performance pay. The effect of risk aversion and incentive responsiveness is analysed by allowing for linear contracts. I show that the first order effect of these parameters are the same as in verifiable contracts, but second order effects show that the optimal bonus level's sensitivity to risk aversion and incentive responsiveness increases with the discount factor. The analysis has interesting implications on firm boundaries and specificity choices. (author)

  8. Elite athletes experiences with risk related to cardiac screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jonas Schmidt; Thing, Lone Friis

    Society of Cardiology as well as major sports federations such as the International Olympic Committee, however, these recommendations seem to be based on an inadequate empirical foundation, just as the costs of performing cardiac screening on a larger scale seem out of proportion. Additionally, the field...... perspective on risk (Foucault 1988). For most elite athletes participation in cardiac screening is done out of a wish to obtain an acquittal from risks. Symptomatic of the risk society cardiac screening can from an athlete perspective at the same time be seen as an attempt to gain control over......Elite Athletes experiences with risks related to Cardiac Screening Jonas Schmidt Christensen1, Lone Friis Thing1 1University of Copenhagen - Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports (NEXS), Cardiac screening of elite athletes are recommended by both the American Heart Association & the European...

  9. AN ANALYSIS OF THE SHAPES OF INTERSTELLAR EXTINCTION CURVES. VI. THE NEAR-IR EXTINCTION LAW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitzpatrick, E. L.; Massa, D.

    2009-01-01

    We combine new observations from the Hubble Space Telescope's Advanced Camera of Survey with existing data to investigate the wavelength dependence of near-IR (NIR) extinction. Previous studies suggest a power law form for NIR extinction, with a 'universal' value of the exponent, although some recent observations indicate that significant sight line-to-sight line variability may exist. We show that a power-law model for the NIR extinction provides an excellent fit to most extinction curves, but that the value of the power, β, varies significantly from sight line to sight line. Therefore, it seems that a 'universal NIR extinction law' is not possible. Instead, we find that as β decreases, R(V) ≡ A(V)/E(B - V) tends to increase, suggesting that NIR extinction curves which have been considered 'peculiar' may, in fact, be typical for different R(V) values. We show that the power-law parameters can depend on the wavelength interval used to derive them, with the β increasing as longer wavelengths are included. This result implies that extrapolating power-law fits to determine R(V) is unreliable. To avoid this problem, we adopt a different functional form for NIR extinction. This new form mimics a power law whose exponent increases with wavelength, has only two free parameters, can fit all of our curves over a longer wavelength baseline and to higher precision, and produces R(V) values which are consistent with independent estimates and commonly used methods for estimating R(V). Furthermore, unlike the power-law model, it gives R(V)s that are independent of the wavelength interval used to derive them. It also suggests that the relation R(V) = -1.36 E(K-V)/(E(B-V)) - 0.79 can estimate R(V) to ±0.12. Finally, we use model extinction curves to show that our extinction curves are in accord with theoretical expectations, and demonstrate how large samples of observational quantities can provide useful constraints on the grain properties.

  10. Criterion 1: Conservation of biological diversity - Indicator 7: The status (threatened, rare, vulnerable, endangered, or extinct) of forest dependent species at risk of not maintaining viable breeding populations, as determined by legislation or scientific assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis H. Flather; Taylor H. Ricketts; Carolyn Hull Sieg; Michael S. Knowles; John P. Fay; Jason McNees

    2003-01-01

    As the number of species classified as rare increases, the likelihood of species extinction also increases. This indicator focuses on species that have the greatest chance of being lost from the biotic community and therefore presages potential declines in species richness. The trend in species extinction since the turn of the 20th century varies by taxonomic group....

  11. [Occupational risk related to optical radiation exposure in construction workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobba, F; Modenese, A

    2012-01-01

    Optical Radiation is a relevant occupational risk in construction workers, mainly as a consequence of the exposure to the ultraviolet (UV) component of solar radiation (SR). Available data show that UV occupational limits are frequently exceeded in these workers, resulting in an increased occupational risk of various acute and chronic effects, mainly to skin and to the eye. One of the foremost is the carcinogenic effect: SR is indeed included in Group 1 IARC (carcinogenic to humans). UV exposure is related to an increase of the incidence of basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma of the skin and cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). The incidence of these tumors, especially CMM, is constantly increasing in Caucasians in the last 50 years. As a conclusion, an adequate evaluation of the occupational risk related to SR, and adequate preventive measures are essential in construction workers. The role of occupational physicians in prevention is fundamental.

  12. Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2006-01-01

    : The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road had a significant effect. The highest risk was found in children living 500-1000 metres from nearest major road (RR=1.30 (95% Confidence Interval: 1.17-1.44). However, when we accounted for the degree of urbanization, the geographical distance...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...

  13. Aerobic fitness related to cardiovascular risk factors in young children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K

    2012-01-01

    Low aerobic fitness (maximum oxygen uptake (VO(2PEAK))) is predictive for poor health in adults. In a cross-sectional study, we assessed if VO(2PEAK) is related to a composite risk factor score for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in 243 children (136 boys and 107 girls) aged 8 to 11 years. VO(2PEAK...

  14. HIV/AIDS Related Knowledge and Perceived Risk Associated with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using data from the 2004 National Survey of Adolescents in Uganda, logistic regression models were fitted to examine the odds that HIV/AIDS related knowledge and perceived risk of HIV infection are associated with condom use among adolescents. After including demographic measures, findings indicated that correct ...

  15. Cancer-related fatigue--mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Julienne E

    2014-10-01

    Fatigue is one of the most common adverse effects of cancer that might persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and might be a risk factor of reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in patients with cancer have been well characterized and there is growing understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation seems to have a key role in fatigue before, during, and after cancer-treatment. However, there is a considerable variability in the presentation of cancer-related fatigue, much of which is not explained by disease-related or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors might be important in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have identified genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioural risk factors associated with cancer-related fatigue. Although no current gold-standard treatment for fatigue is available, a variety of intervention approaches have shown beneficial effects in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. This Review describes the mechanisms, risk factors, and possible interventions for cancer-related fatigue, focusing on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients.

  16. Variations in ultraviolet extinction: effect of polarization revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenberg, J.M.; Chlewicki, G.; Rijksuniversiteit Groningen

    1987-01-01

    The alignment of the particles responsible for the polarization and visual extinction is shown to provide a basis for changing the saturation level of the ultraviolet extinction without changing the particle sizes. If the particles are well aligned, it is predicted that there should be significantly lower extinction in the ultraviolet relative to the visible for stars viewed perpendicular to magnetic-field lines (maximum polarization) as compared with those viewed across the field lines. Preliminary evidence for such an effect is noted in Carina. (author)

  17. Mass extinction efficiency and extinction hygroscopicity of ambient PM2.5 in urban China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Zhen; Ma, Xin; He, Yujie; Jiang, Jingkun; Wang, Xiaoliang; Wang, Yungang; Sheng, Li; Hu, Jiangkai; Yan, Naiqiang

    2017-07-01

    The ambient PM 2.5 pollution problem in China has drawn substantial international attentions. The mass extinction efficiency (MEE) and hygroscopicity factor (f(RH)) of PM 2.5 can be readily applied to study the impacts on atmospheric visibility and climate. The few previous investigations in China only reported results from pilot studies and are lack of spatial representativeness. In this study, hourly average ambient PM 2.5 mass concentration, relative humidity, and atmospheric visibility data from China national air quality and meteorological monitoring networks were retrieved and analyzed. It includes 24 major Chinese cities from nine city-clusters with the period of October 2013 to September 2014. Annual average extinction coefficient in urban China was 759.3±258.3Mm -1 , mainly caused by dry PM 2.5 (305.8.2±131.0Mm -1 ) and its hygroscopicity (414.6±188.1Mm -1 ). High extinction coefficient values were resulted from both high ambient PM 2.5 concentration (68.5±21.7µg/m 3 ) and high relative humidity (69.7±8.6%). The PM 2.5 mass extinction efficiency varied from 2.87 to 6.64m 2 /g with an average of 4.40±0.84m 2 /g. The average extinction hygroscopic factor f(RH=80%) was 2.63±0.45. The levels of PM 2.5 mass extinction efficiency and hygroscopic factor in China were in comparable range with those found in developed countries in spite of the significant diversities among all 24 cities. Our findings help to establish quantitative relationship between ambient extinction coefficient (visual range) and PM 2.5 & relative humidity. It will reduce the uncertainty of extinction coefficient estimation of ambient PM 2.5 in urban China which is essential for the research of haze pollution and climate radiative forcing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Genetic sex determination and extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedrick, Philip W; Gadau, Jürgen; Page, Robert E

    2006-02-01

    Genetic factors can affect the probability of extinction either by increasing the effect of detrimental variants or by decreasing the potential for future adaptive responses. In a recent paper, Zayed and Packer demonstrate that low variation at a specific locus, the complementary sex determination (csd) locus in Hymenoptera (ants, bees and wasps), can result in a sharply increased probability of extinction. Their findings illustrate situations in which there is a feedback process between decreased genetic variation at the csd locus owing to genetic drift and decreased population growth, resulting in an extreme type of extinction vortex for these ecologically important organisms.

  19. [Risk factors related to surgical site infection in elective surgery].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeles-Garay, Ulises; Morales-Márquez, Lucy Isabel; Sandoval-Balanzarios, Miguel Antonio; Velázquez-García, José Arturo; Maldonado-Torres, Lulia; Méndez-Cano, Andrea Fernanda

    2014-01-01

    The risk factors for surgical site infections in surgery should be measured and monitored from admission to 30 days after the surgical procedure, because 30% of Surgical Site Infection is detected when the patient was discharged. Calculate the Relative Risk of associated factors to surgical site infections in adult with elective surgery. Patients were classified according to the surgery contamination degree; patient with surgery clean was defined as no exposed and patient with clean-contaminated or contaminated surgery was defined exposed. Risk factors for infection were classified as: inherent to the patient, pre-operative, intra-operative and post-operative. Statistical analysis; we realized Student t or Mann-Whitney U, chi square for Relative Risk (RR) and multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards. Were monitored up to 30 days after surgery 403 patients (59.8% women), 35 (8.7%) developed surgical site infections. The factors associated in multivariate analysis were: smoking, RR of 3.21, underweight 3.4 hand washing unsuitable techniques 4.61, transfusion during the procedure 3.22, contaminated surgery 60, and intensive care stay 8 to 14 days 11.64, permanence of 1 to 3 days 2.4 and use of catheter 1 to 3 days 2.27. To avoid all risk factors is almost impossible; therefore close monitoring of elective surgery patients can prevent infectious complications.

  20. Are all risks equal? Early experiences of poverty-related risk and children's functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Amanda L; Raver, C Cybele

    2014-06-01

    Using cumulative risk and latent class analysis (LCA) models, we examined how exposure to deep poverty (income-to-needs ratio risks (i.e., single-parent household, residential crowding, caregiver depression, and multiple life stressors) in preschool is related to children's future difficulty in school in a longitudinal sample of 602 Head Start-enrolled, low-income families. Results from the LCA revealed 4 risk profiles: low risk, deep poverty and single, single and stressed, and deep poverty and crowded household. Tests of measurement invariance across racial/ethnic groups established that, although patterns of risk are similar across groups (i.e., risks covary in the same way), the prevalence of risk profiles differs. African American families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and single" profile while Latino and White families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and crowded" profile. Finally, children's third grade functioning in 3 domains (i.e., academic performance, behavior problems, and self-regulatory skills) was predicted using a cumulative risk index and LCA-identified risk profiles. Both approaches demonstrated that children who experienced higher levels of risk in preschool had worse school performance than children with low levels of risk. However, LCA also revealed that children who experienced "single and stressed" family settings had more behavior problems than low-risk children while children who experienced "deep poverty and crowded" family settings had worse academic performance. The results indicate that all risks are not equal for children's development and highlight the utility of LCA for tailoring intervention efforts to best meet the needs of target populations. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved

  1. Food for thought - Communicating food-related risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sturloni Giancarlo

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last few years, a continuous series of food alerts have caught the attention of the media and the public in Europe. First, eggs and pork contaminated with dioxins; then, “mad cow” disease, while, all along in the background, a battle against genetically modified plants has been in progress. These food alerts have had complex repercussions on the perception of risks associated with food production. Experts have often been divided over these issues, and the uncertainty of scientific data has been indicated on more than one occasion as one of the factors that influence risk perception. However, the most important factor seems to be undoubtedly the way in which the risk has been communicated (or not communicated to the public. Therefore, risk communication analysis offers an excellent opportunity to understand the profound changes that are taking place in relations among the scientific community, mass media and other members of civil society now that they are fully aware that scientific and technological innovation, the real driving force of modern industrial society, is a source of development but also a source of risks which are not always acceptable. Within this different context, a debate open to all interested parties appears to have become a dire necessity for the “risk society”, especially as far as food is concerned because food has extremely important psychological, ethical and cultural values.

  2. Explanatory risk factors in the relations between schizotypy and indicators of suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, Danielle R; DeVylder, Jordan E; Hilimire, Matthew R

    2016-04-30

    Schizotypy has been linked to suicide risk, but it is not known whether established suicide-related risk factors mediate this relation. The aim of this study was to assess the mediating effects of depressive symptoms, social anxiety, self-esteem, and intimate disclosure in peer relationships in the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. This aim was tested in 590 young adults using a nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. After inclusion of the mediators, interpersonal schizotypy was no longer directly associated with either suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. Depression and self-esteem mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation. No variables mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and lifetime suicide attempts, and there were no significant direct relations when mediators were included. Schizotypy appears to be a distal risk factor for suicidal behavior; assessing depressive symptoms and self-esteem may provide more proximal information about suicide risk, and may be targets for mitigating suicide risk in individuals with schizotypy. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  3. MODELING GALACTIC EXTINCTION WITH DUST AND 'REAL' POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulas, Giacomo; Casu, Silvia; Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare; Zonca, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the remarkable apparent variety of galactic extinction curves by modeling extinction profiles with core-mantle grains and a collection of single polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Our aim is to translate a synthetic description of dust into physically well-grounded building blocks through the analysis of a statistically relevant sample of different extinction curves. All different flavors of observed extinction curves, ranging from the average galactic extinction curve to virtually 'bumpless' profiles, can be described by the present model. We prove that a mixture of a relatively small number (54 species in 4 charge states each) of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons can reproduce the features of the extinction curve in the ultraviolet, dismissing an old objection to the contribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to the interstellar extinction curve. Despite the large number of free parameters (at most the 54 × 4 column densities of each species in each ionization state included in the molecular ensemble plus the 9 parameters defining the physical properties of classical particles), we can strongly constrain some physically relevant properties such as the total number of C atoms in all species and the mean charge of the mixture. Such properties are found to be largely independent of the adopted dust model whose variation provides effects that are orthogonal to those brought about by the molecular component. Finally, the fitting procedure, together with some physical sense, suggests (but does not require) the presence of an additional component of chemically different very small carbonaceous grains.

  4. Aerobic exercise reduces biomarkers related to cardiovascular risk among cleaners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korshøj, Mette; Ravn, Marie Højbjerg; Holtermann, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Blue-collar workers have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, elevated levels of biomarkers related to risk of cardiovascular disease, such as high-sensitive C-reactive protein, have been observed among blue-collar workers. The objective was to examine whether...... an aerobic exercise worksite intervention changes the level of inflammation biomarkers among cleaners. METHODS: The design was a cluster-randomized controlled trial with 4-month worksite intervention. Before the 116 cleaners aged 18-65 years were randomized, they signed an informed consent form...

  5. Relative Risk Appraisal, the September 11 Attacks, and Terrorism-Related Fears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Randall D.; Bryant, Richard A.; Amsel, Lawrence; Suh, Eun Jung; Cook, Joan M.; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    There are now replicated findings that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms related to the September 11, 2001, attacks occurred in large numbers of persons who did not fit the traditional definition of exposure to a traumatic event. These data are not explained by traditional epidemiologic “bull’s eye” disaster models, which assume the psychological effects are narrowly, geographically circumscribed, or by existing models of PTSD onset. In this article, the authors develop a researchable model to explain these and other terrorism-related phenomena by synthesizing research and concepts from the cognitive science, risk appraisal, traumatic stress, and anxiety disorders literatures. They propose the new term relative risk appraisal to capture the psychological function that is the missing link between the event and subjective response in these and other terrorism-related studies to date. Relative risk appraisal highlights the core notion from cognitive science that human perception is an active, multidimensional process, such that for unpredictable societal threats, proximity to the event is only one of several factors that influence behavioral responses. Addressing distortions in relative risk appraisal effectively could reduce individual and societal vulnerability to a wide range of adverse economic and ethnopolitical consequences to terrorist attacks. The authors present ways in which these concepts and related techniques can be helpful in treating persons with September 11– or terrorism-related distress or psychopathology. PMID:17516775

  6. MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki

    2014-01-01

    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer....... We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41......,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated...

  7. Risk Factors and Biomarkers of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Nathan G.; Singh, Malkit K.; ElShelmani, Hanan; Mansergh, Fiona C.; Wride, Michael A.; Padilla, Maximilian; Keegan, David; Hogg, Ruth E.; Ambati, Balamurali K.

    2016-01-01

    A biomarker can be a substance or structure measured in body parts, fluids or products that can affect or predict disease incidence. As age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the developed world, much research and effort has been invested in the identification of different biomarkers to predict disease incidence, identify at risk individuals, elucidate causative pathophysiological etiologies, guide screening, monitoring and treatment parameters, and predict disease outcomes. To date, a host of genetic, environmental, proteomic, and cellular targets have been identified as both risk factors and potential biomarkers for AMD. Despite this, their use has been confined to research settings and has not yet crossed into the clinical arena. A greater understanding of these factors and their use as potential biomarkers for AMD can guide future research and clinical practice. This article will discuss known risk factors and novel, potential biomarkers of AMD in addition to their application in both academic and clinical settings. PMID:27156982

  8. Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

    2002-01-01

    We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings.

  9. Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

    2002-01-01

    We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings

  10. [Identification of risk factors in relatives of type-2 diabetics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas-Alvarez, Norma Angélica; Vela-Otero, Yolanda; Carrada-Brav, Teodoro

    2006-01-01

    To identify risk factors and warning signs in a sample of first-degree relatives of type-2 diabetics at the Family Medicine Unit 2 of the General Hospital in Irapuato, Guanajuato, Mexico. In a non-probabilistic sample of 360 relatives, a 14-item questionnaire was applied to measure abdominal perimeter and body mass index (obesity and overweight), eating habits, addictions and sedentarism. The questionnaire was made by general consent of experts, by applying Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient. Specific rates of prevalence by sex and age groups were estimated. 233 (65%) relatives were females. As part of their family history background, arterial hypertension was recorded in 263 (73%) and acute myocardial infarction in 97 (27%). Among the dangerous food for health consumed by the relatives of diabetics are cola drinks in 94.7%, red meat in 83%, candies in 74.7% and chips in 65.8%; only half of them consumed fresh fruits and vegetables; a quarter of them ate prickly pears or whole wheat bread. There were 163 (45.3%) persons with high-risk abdominal perimeter, and sedentarism was present in 267 (74.2%). However, obesity was 3 times more frequent in females, but excessive drinking or smoking habits were 7 times more prevailing in males. A high-risk behavior was demonstrated among relativies of diabetic patients. Therefore, a public-health educational program is required to modify risky habits. A change towards prevention rather than cure is much needed in health staff.

  11. AIDS Risk Perception and its related factors in Women with High-Risk Behaviors in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahin Tafazoli

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background & aim: AIDS is one of the major public health challenges all over the world. Perceived risk is a significant predictor of high-risk behaviors related to AIDS. Women constitute more than half of the HIV patients, and the rate of female sex workers with AIDS is more than the rest of female population. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate AIDS risk perception and its related factors in females with high-risk behaviors in Mashhad, Iran. Methods:This descriptive study was performed on 58 women who were arrested on prostitution charges and imprisoned in Mashhad Vakil Abad Prison in 2013. The data were collected using self-designed questionnaires assessing knowledge regarding AIDS as well as sexual activities and also perceived risk of HIV questionnaire. One-way ANOVA, independent samples t-test, linear regression, and Chi-square tests were run, using SPSS version 16. Results: The mean score of HIV risk perception was 18.43±5.92, which was average. There was a significant relationship between the mean score of perceived risk of HIV and knowledge regarding AIDS (P=0.005, alcohol consumption (P=0.04, history of addiction (P=0.008, using contraceptive methods (P=0.01, condom use during intercourse (P=0.02, voluntary HIV testing (P=0.001, and follow-up of HIV test (P=0.009. Conclusion:The findings of the present study revealed that knowledge, alcohol consumption, history of addiction, contraceptive methods, the rate of condom use during intercourse, as well as voluntary HIV testing and follow-up were associated with perceived risk of HIV infection. Therefore, taking the necessary steps towards health promotion through appropriate training and interventional approaches seems to be mandatory for reducing high-risk behaviors in populations with low risk perception.

  12. Reconsidering the extinction of ichthyosaurs

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Valentin

    2010-01-01

    Despite their extreme adaptation to life in open sea, ichthyosaurs were one of the first major groups of post-Triassic marine reptiles to disappear, at the end of Cenomanian, whereas plesiosaurs, mosasaurs and numerous families of marine crocodiles and sea turtles disappeared during the Cretaceous/Paleocene Extinction Event. It has been proposed that unique biological factors drove ichthyosaurs to extinction, namely a break in the food chain at the level of belemnites or a progressive ecologi...

  13. The Sixth Great Mass Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagler, Ron

    2012-01-01

    Five past great mass extinctions have occurred during Earth's history. Humanity is currently in the midst of a sixth, human-induced great mass extinction of plant and animal life (e.g., Alroy 2008; Jackson 2008; Lewis 2006; McDaniel and Borton 2002; Rockstrom et al. 2009; Rohr et al. 2008; Steffen, Crutzen, and McNeill 2007; Thomas et al. 2004;…

  14. Risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Eugenia Nano

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSES: To assess the risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina using a case-control study. METHODS: Surveys were used for subjects' antioxidant intake, age/gender, race, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes (and type of treatment, smoking, sunlight exposure, red meat consumption, fish consumption, presence of age-related macular degeneration and family history of age-related macular degeneration. Main effects models for logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used to analyze the results. RESULTS: There were 175 cases and 175 controls with a mean age of 75.4 years and 75.5 years, respectively, of whom 236 (67.4% were female. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration, 159 (45.4% had age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 154 (44.0% in their right eyes, and 138 (39.4% in both eyes. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 47.8% had the dry type, 40.3% had the wet type, and the type was unknown for 11.9%. The comparable figures for right eyes were: 51.9%, 34.4%, and 13.7%, respectively. The main effects model was dominated by higher sunlight exposure (OR [odds ratio]: 3.3 and a family history of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 4.3. Other factors included hypertension (OR: 2.1, smoking (OR: 2.2, and being of the Mestizo race, which lowered the risk of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 0.40. Red meat/fish consumption, body mass index, and iris color did not have an effect. Higher age was associated with progression to more severe age-related macular degeneration. CONCLUSION: Sunlight exposure, family history of age-related macular degeneration, and an older age were the significant risk factors. There may be other variables, as the risk was not explained very well by the existing factors. A larger sample may produce different and better results.

  15. Relationship of extinction to perceptual thresholds for single stimuli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meador, K J; Ray, P G; Day, L J; Loring, D W

    2001-04-24

    To demonstrate the effects of target stimulus intensity on extinction to double simultaneous stimuli. Attentional deficits contribute to extinction in patients with brain lesions, but extinction (i.e., masking) can also be produced in healthy subjects. The relationship of extinction to perceptual thresholds for single stimuli remains uncertain. Brief electrical pulses were applied simultaneously to the left and right index fingers of 16 healthy volunteers (8 young and 8 elderly adults) and 4 patients with right brain stroke (RBS). The stimulus to be perceived (i.e., target stimulus) was given at the lowest perceptual threshold to perceive any single stimulus (i.e., Minimal) and at the threshold to perceive 100% of single stimuli. The mask stimulus (i.e., stimulus given to block the target) was applied to the contralateral hand at intensities just below discomfort. Extinction was less for target stimuli at 100% than Minimal threshold for healthy subjects. Extinction of left targets was greater in patients with RBS than elderly control subjects. Left targets were extinguished less than right in healthy subjects. In contrast, the majority of left targets were extinguished in patients with RBS even when right mask intensity was reduced below right 100% threshold for single stimuli. RBS patients had less extinction for right targets despite having greater left mask - threshold difference than control subjects. In patients with RBS, right "targets" at 100% threshold extinguished left "masks" (20%) almost as frequently as left masks extinguished right targets (32%). Subtle changes in target intensity affect extinction in healthy adults. Asymmetries in mask and target intensities (relative to single-stimulus perceptual thresholds) affect extinction in RBS patients less for left targets but more for right targets as compared with control subjects.

  16. Extinction of aversive classically conditioned human sexual response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brom, Mirte; Laan, Ellen; Everaerd, Walter; Spinhoven, Philip; Both, Stephanie

    2015-04-01

    Research has shown that acquired subjective likes and dislikes are quite resistant to extinction. Moreover, studies on female sexual response demonstrated that diminished genital arousal and positive affect toward erotic stimuli due to aversive classical conditioning did not extinguish during an extinction phase. Possible resistance to extinction of aversive conditioned sexual responses may have important clinical implications. However, resistance to extinction of aversive conditioned human sexual response has not been studied using extensive extinction trials. This article aims to study resistance to extinction of aversive conditioned sexual responses in sexually functional men and women. A differential conditioning experiment was conducted, with two erotic pictures as conditioned stimulus (CSs) and a painful stimulus as unconditioned stimuli (USs). Only one CS (the CS+) was followed by the US during the acquisition phase. Conditioned responses were assessed during the extinction phase. Penile circumference and vaginal pulse amplitude were assessed, and ratings of affective value and subjective sexual arousal were obtained. Also, a stimulus response compatibility task was included to assess automatic approach and avoidance tendencies. Men and women rated the CS+ more negative as compared with the CS-. During the first trials of the extinction phase, vaginal pulse amplitude was lower in response to the CS+ than in response to the CS-, and on the first extinction trial women rated the CS+ as less sexually arousing. Intriguingly, men did not demonstrate attenuated genital and subjective sexual response. Aversive conditioning, by means of painful stimuli, only affects sexual responses in women, whereas it does not in men. Although conditioned sexual likes and dislikes are relatively persistent, conditioned affect eventually does extinguish. © 2014 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  17. d-Cycloserine reduces context specificity of sexual extinction learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brom, Mirte; Laan, Ellen; Everaerd, Walter; Spinhoven, Philip; Trimbos, Baptist; Both, Stephanie

    2015-11-01

    d-Cycloserine (DCS) enhances extinction processes in animals. Although classical conditioning is hypothesized to play a pivotal role in the aetiology of appetitive motivation problems, no research has been conducted on the effect of DCS on the reduction of context specificity of extinction in human appetitive learning, while facilitation hereof is relevant in the context of treatment of problematic reward-seeking behaviors. Female participants were presented with two conditioned stimuli (CSs) that either predicted (CS+) or did not predict (CS-) a potential sexual reward (unconditioned stimulus (US); genital vibrostimulation). Conditioning took place in context A and extinction in context B. Subjects received DCS (125mg) or placebo directly after the experiment on day 1 in a randomized, double-blind, between-subject fashion (Placebo n=31; DCS n=31). Subsequent testing for CS-evoked conditioned responses (CRs) in both the conditioning (A) and the extinction context (B) took place 24h later on day 2. Drug effects on consolidation were then assessed by comparing the recall of sexual extinction memories between the DCS and the placebo groups. Post learning administration of DCS facilitates sexual extinction memory consolidation and affects extinction's fundamental context specificity, evidenced by reduced conditioned genital and subjective sexual responses, relative to placebo, for presentations of the reward predicting cue 24h later outside the extinction context. DCS makes appetitive extinction memories context-independent and prevents the return of conditioned response. NMDA receptor glycine site agonists may be potential pharmacotherapies for the prevention of relapse of appetitive motivation disorders with a learned component. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. A fundamental role for context in instrumental learning and extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Bouton, Mark E.; Todd, Travis P.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to review recent research that has investigated the effects of context change on instrumental (operant) learning. The first part of the article discusses instrumental extinction, in which the strength of a reinforced instrumental behavior declines when reinforcers are withdrawn. The results suggest that extinction of either simple or discriminated operant behavior is relatively specific to the context in which it is learned: As in prior studies of Pavlovian exti...

  19. Alcohol Ataxia Tolerance: Extinction Cues, Spontaneous Recovery, and Relapse

    OpenAIRE

    Brooks, Douglas C.

    2005-01-01

    This article reviews ethanol ataxic tolerance experiments with rats that investigate spontaneous recovery after extinction and how extinction-related cues reduce this recovery. Tolerance to the effects of many drugs including ethanol is partly the result of Pavlovian conditioning. Tolerance to the ataxic (and other) effects of ethanol depends critically upon the circumstances in which the drug is administered. Tolerance shows other characteristics common in Pavlovian conditioning, e.g.,. it c...

  20. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Madsen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  1. Relation of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors between Parents and Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halvorsen, Tanya; Moran, Antoinette; Jacobs, David R; Steffen, Lyn M; Sinaiko, Alan R; Zhou, Xia; Steinberger, Julia

    2015-11-01

    To explore the relations of parent-child cardiometabolic risk factors and assess the influence of adiposity on these associations. Associations of adiposity, blood pressure (BP), lipids, fasting insulin and glucose, and a risk factor cluster score (CS) were evaluated in a cross-sectional study of 179 parents and their children (6-18 years, N = 255). Insulin resistance was assessed by euglycemic clamp in parents and children aged 10 years or older. Metabolic syndrome in parents was defined by National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. CSs of the risk factors were created based on age-specific z-scores. Analyses included Pearson correlation and linear regression, adjusted for parent and child age, sex, race, and body mass index (BMI), accounting for within-family correlation. We found positive parent-child correlations for measures of adiposity (BMI, BMI percentile, waist, subcutaneous fat, and visceral fat; r = 0.22-0.34, all P ≤ .003), systolic BP (r = 0.20, P = .002), total cholesterol (r = 0.39, P parent-child correlations, except systolic BP, remained significant. Although adiposity is strongly correlated between parents and children, many cardiometabolic risk factors correlate independent of parent and child BMI. Adverse parental cardiometabolic profiles may identify at-risk children independent of the child's adiposity status. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Analysis of related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Song Yu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore the related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy to provide a theoretical evidence for effectively preventing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula. Methods: A total of 100 patients who were admitted in our hospital from January, 2012 to January, 2015 and had performed pancreaticoduodenectomy were included in the study. The related risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula were collected for single factor and Logistic multi-factor analysis. Results: Among the included patients, 16 had pancreatic fistula, and the total occurrence rate was 16% (16/100. The single-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, preoperative bilirubin, pancreatic texture, pancreatic duct diameter, intraoperative amount of bleeding, postoperative hemoglobin, and application of somatostatin after operation were the risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (P<0.05. The multi-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin were the dependent risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (OR=4.162, 6.104, 5.613, 4.034, P<0.05. Conclusions: The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely associated with the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin; therefore, effective measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence of pancreatic fistula according to the patients’ own conditions.

  3. Young people's perspectives on health-related risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace Elisabeth Spencer

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Drawing upon current socio-cultural understandings of risk, this study highlights the disjunction between the expert risk discourses that permeate official public health policy and practice, and young people’s own perspectives on health and risk. Data were collected from young people aged 14-16 years through the use of group and individual interviews in a school and community youth centre setting. Findings from this study question the saliency of expert-defined health-related risks to young people’s everyday lives. Young people in this study saw health as closely linked to ‘being happy’. Friendships and a sense of personal achievement were particularly important to participants’ health and well-being. When accounting for their participation in health-related practices identified as ‘risky’ in government policy – such as smoking, alcohol and substance use – young people emphasised the levels of pressure they experienced. Sources of pressure included arguments and bullying, school work, and negative stereotypes of young people in general. These areas indicated young people’s concerns that reach beyond the official prescriptions permeating current health policy.

  4. Increased relative risk of myelodysplastic syndrome in atomic bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, Kenji; Kimura, Akiro; Matsuo, Tatsuki; Tomonaga, Masao; Kodama, Kazunori; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    1998-01-01

    It was investigated what blood disorders except leukemia increased the relative risk with dose dependency in atomic bomb survivors. Subjects were 217 patients of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, who had blood disorders except leukemia and died between 1950 and 1990. Their medical records were analyzed and their diagnoses were reevaluated. Sixteen cases were diagnosed as the aplastic anemia and 12 as the myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). In the aplastic anemia, there was no correlation between the exposure dose and the mortality. In MDS, the excess relative risk (ERR)/bone marrow exposure dose of 1 Sv was very high (13.0). These results supports the hypothesis that MDS would be broken out by the clonal abnormality of the hematopoietic stem cell and radiation exposure could cause the appearance of the abnormal stem cell clone. (K.H.)

  5. Increased relative risk of myelodysplastic syndrome in atomic bomb survivors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oda, Kenji [Hiroshima City Hospital (Japan); Kimura, Akiro; Matsuo, Tatsuki; Tomonaga, Masao; Kodama, Kazunori; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    1998-12-01

    It was investigated what blood disorders except leukemia increased the relative risk with dose dependency in atomic bomb survivors. Subjects were 217 patients of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, who had blood disorders except leukemia and died between 1950 and 1990. Their medical records were analyzed and their diagnoses were reevaluated. Sixteen cases were diagnosed as the aplastic anemia and 12 as the myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). In the aplastic anemia, there was no correlation between the exposure dose and the mortality. In MDS, the excess relative risk (ERR)/bone marrow exposure dose of 1 Sv was very high (13.0). These results supports the hypothesis that MDS would be broken out by the clonal abnormality of the hematopoietic stem cell and radiation exposure could cause the appearance of the abnormal stem cell clone. (K.H.)

  6. Update on procedure-related risks for prenatal diagnosis techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabor, Ann; Alfirevic, Zarko

    2010-01-01

    Introduction: As a consequence of the introduction of effective screening methods, the number of invasive prenatal diagnostic procedures is steadily declining. The aim of this review is to summarize the risks related to these procedures. Material and Methods: Review of the literature. Results: Data...... from randomised controlled trials as well as from systematic reviews and a large national registry study are consistent with a procedure-related miscarriage rate of 0.5-1.0% for amniocentesis as well as for chorionic villus sampling (CVS). In single-center studies performance may be remarkably good due...... not be performed before 15 + 0 weeks' gestation. CVS on the other hand should not be performed before 10 weeks' gestation due to a possible increase in risk of limb reduction defects. Discussion: Experienced operators have a higher success rate and a lower complication rate. The decreasing number of prenatal...

  7. Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Neil; Chater, Nick; Stott, Henry P; Reimers, Stian

    2003-03-01

    In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.

  8. The galactic extinction towards Maffei 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buta, R.J.; McCall, M.L.; McDonald Observatory, Austin, TX; Australian National Univ., Canberra. Mount Stromlo and Siding Spring Observatories)

    1983-01-01

    The extinction of Maffei 1 has been measured by two new techniques. First, BV aperture photometry has been performed to obtain the colour excess from standard aperture-colour relations for early-type galaxies. Secondly, millimetre and radio observations of galactic CO and HI have been used to calculate the total hydrogen column density along the line-of-sight, and thereby estimate the colour excess from the local dust-to-gas ratio. After consideration of all extinction measurements to date, it is concluded that Asub(v)=5.1+-0.2 mag. The isophotal diameter and the corrected apparent visual magnitude are estimated to be approx. 15 arcmin and approx. 6.3 respectively (assuming type E), making Maffei 1 one of the biggest and brightest galaxies in the sky. (author)

  9. Deployment-related risk factors of low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nissen, Lars Ravnborg; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn

    2014-01-01

    Where much is known about the consequences of spinal and low back pain (LBP) during military deployments, there is lesser knowledge of risk factors for LBP among the deployed forces. The objective of this study was to identify deployment-related exposures associated with LBP. The study was a ques...... their subordinates and involve medical personnel, especially deployed physiotherapists, by giving advice to soldiers of different military occupational specialties on how to optimize ergonomics at work....

  10. Some computer simulations based on the linear relative risk model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1991-10-01

    This report presents the results of computer simulations designed to evaluate and compare the performance of the likelihood ratio statistic and the score statistic for making inferences about the linear relative risk mode. The work was motivated by data on workers exposed to low doses of radiation, and the report includes illustration of several procedures for obtaining confidence limits for the excess relative risk coefficient based on data from three studies of nuclear workers. The computer simulations indicate that with small sample sizes and highly skewed dose distributions, asymptotic approximations to the score statistic or to the likelihood ratio statistic may not be adequate. For testing the null hypothesis that the excess relative risk is equal to zero, the asymptotic approximation to the likelihood ratio statistic was adequate, but use of the asymptotic approximation to the score statistic rejected the null hypothesis too often. Frequently the likelihood was maximized at the lower constraint, and when this occurred, the asymptotic approximations for the likelihood ratio and score statistics did not perform well in obtaining upper confidence limits. The score statistic and likelihood ratio statistics were found to perform comparably in terms of power and width of the confidence limits. It is recommended that with modest sample sizes, confidence limits be obtained using computer simulations based on the score statistic. Although nuclear worker studies are emphasized in this report, its results are relevant for any study investigating linear dose-response functions with highly skewed exposure distributions. 22 refs., 14 tabs

  11. Chapter 4. Susceptibility of sharks, rays and chimaeras to global extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Iain C; Meekan, Mark G; Buckworth, Rik C; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2009-01-01

    Marine biodiversity worldwide is under increasing threat, primarily as a result of over-harvesting, pollution and climate change. Chondrichthyan fishes (sharks, rays and chimaeras) have a perceived higher intrinsic risk of extinction compared to other fish. Direct fishing mortality has driven many declines, even though some smaller fisheries persist without associated declines. Mixed-species fisheries are of particular concern, as is illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. The lack of specific management and reporting mechanisms for the latter means that many chondrichthyans might already be susceptible to extinction from stochastic processes entirely unrelated to fishing pressure itself. Chondrichthyans might also suffer relatively more than other marine taxa from the effects of fishing and habitat loss and degradation given coastal habitat use for specific life stages. The effects of invasive species and pollution are as yet too poorly understood to predict their long-term role in affecting chondrichthyan population sizes. The spatial distribution of threatened chondrichthyan species under World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List criteria are clustered mainly in (1) south-eastern South America; (2) western Europe and the Mediterranean; (3) western Africa; (4) South China Sea and Southeast Asia and (5) south-eastern Australia. To determine which ecological and life history traits predispose chondrichthyans to being IUCN Red-Listed, and to examine the role of particular human activities in exacerbating threat risk, we correlated extant marine species' Red List categorisation with available ecological (habitat type, temperature preference), life history (body length, range size) and human-relationship (whether commercially or game-fished, considered dangerous to humans) variables. Threat risk correlations were constructed using generalised linear mixed-effect models to account for phylogenetic relatedness. We also contrasted results for chondrichthyans to

  12. Thermal Transgressions and Phanerozoic Extinctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worsley, T. R.; Kidder, D. L.

    2007-12-01

    A number of significant Phanerozoic extinctions are associated with marine transgressions that were probably driven by rapid ocean warming. The conditions associated with what we call thermal transgressions are extremely stressful to life on Earth. The Earth system setting associated with end-Permian extinction exemplifies an end-member case of our model. The conditions favoring extreme warmth and sea-level increases driven by thermal expansion are also conducive to changes in ocean circulation that foster widespread anoxia and sulfidic subsurface ocean waters. Equable climates are characterized by reduced wind shear and weak surface ocean circulation. Late Permian and Early Triassic thermohaline circulation differs considerably from today's world, with minimal polar sinking and intensified mid-latitude sinking that delivers sulfate from shallow evaporative areas to deeper water where it is reduced to sulfide. Reduced nutrient input to oceans from land at many of the extinction intervals results from diminished silicate weathering and weakened delivery of iron via eolian dust. The falloff in iron-bearing dust leads to minimal nitrate production, weakening food webs and rendering faunas and floras more susceptible to extinction when stressed. Factors such as heat, anoxia, ocean acidification, hypercapnia, and hydrogen sulfide poisoning would significantly affect these biotas. Intervals of tectonic quiescence set up preconditions favoring extinctions. Reductions in chemical silicate weathering lead to carbon dioxide buildup, oxygen drawdown, nutrient depletion, wind and ocean current abatement, long-term global warming, and ocean acidification. The effects of extinction triggers such as large igneous provinces, bolide impacts, and episodes of sudden methane release are more potent against the backdrop of our proposed preconditions. Extinctions that have characteristics we call for in the thermal transgressions include the Early Cambrian Sinsk event, as well as

  13. Modelling the genetic risk in age-related macular degeneration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Grassmann

    Full Text Available Late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD is a common sight-threatening disease of the central retina affecting approximately 1 in 30 Caucasians. Besides age and smoking, genetic variants from several gene loci have reproducibly been associated with this condition and likely explain a large proportion of disease. Here, we developed a genetic risk score (GRS for AMD based on 13 risk variants from eight gene loci. The model exhibited good discriminative accuracy, area-under-curve (AUC of the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.820, which was confirmed in a cross-validation approach. Noteworthy, younger AMD patients aged below 75 had a significantly higher mean GRS (1.87, 95% CI: 1.69-2.05 than patients aged 75 and above (1.45, 95% CI: 1.36-1.54. Based on five equally sized GRS intervals, we present a risk classification with a relative AMD risk of 64.0 (95% CI: 14.11-1131.96 for individuals in the highest category (GRS 3.44-5.18, 0.5% of the general population compared to subjects with the most common genetic background (GRS -0.05-1.70, 40.2% of general population. The highest GRS category identifies AMD patients with a sensitivity of 7.9% and a specificity of 99.9% when compared to the four lower categories. Modeling a general population around 85 years of age, 87.4% of individuals in the highest GRS category would be expected to develop AMD by that age. In contrast, only 2.2% of individuals in the two lowest GRS categories which represent almost 50% of the general population are expected to manifest AMD. Our findings underscore the large proportion of AMD cases explained by genetics particularly for younger AMD patients. The five-category risk classification could be useful for therapeutic stratification or for diagnostic testing purposes once preventive treatment is available.

  14. Relapse processes after the extinction of instrumental learning: Renewal, resurgence, and reacquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouton, Mark E.; Winterbauer, Neil E.; Todd, Travis P.

    2012-01-01

    It is widely recognized that extinction (the procedure in which a Pavlovian conditioned stimulus or an instrumental action is repeatedly presented without its reinforcer) weakens behavior without erasing the original learning. Most of the experiments that support this claim have focused on several “relapse” effects that occur after Pavlovian extinction, which collectively suggest that the original learning is saved through extinction. However, although such effects do occur after instrumental extinction, they have not been explored there in as much detail. This article reviews recent research in our laboratory that has investigated three relapse effects that occur after the extinction of instrumental (operant) learning. In renewal, responding returns after extinction when the behavior is tested in a different context; in resurgence, responding recovers when a second response that has been reinforced during extinction of the first is itself put on extinction; and in rapid reacquisition, extinguished responding returns rapidly when the response is reinforced again. The results provide new insights into extinction and relapse, and are consistent with principles that have been developed to explain extinction and relapse as they occur after Pavlovian conditioning. Extinction of instrumental learning, like Pavlovian learning, involves new learning that is relatively dependent on the context for expression. PMID:22450305

  15. VLT/X-shooter GRBs: Individual extinction curves of star-forming regions★

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, T.; Watson, D.; Møller, P.; Selsing, J.; Fynbo, J. PU; Schady, P.; Wiersema, K.; Levan, A. J.; Heintz, K. E.; Postigo, A. de Ugarte; D'Elia, V.; Jakobsson, P.; Bolmer, J.; Japelj, J.; Covino, S.; Gomboc, A.; Cano, Z.

    2018-05-01

    The extinction profiles in Gamma-Ray Burst (GRB) afterglow spectral energy distributions (SEDs) are usually described by the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC)-type extinction curve. In different empirical extinction laws, the total-to-selective extinction, RV, is an important quantity because of its relation to dust grain sizes and compositions. We here analyse a sample of 17 GRBs (0.34a single or broken power-law together with a parametric extinction law is used to model the individual SEDs. We find 10 cases with significant dust, where the derived extinction, AV, ranges from 0.1-1.0 mag. In four of those, the inferred extinction curves are consistent with the SMC curve. The GRB individual extinction curves have a flat RV distribution with an optimal weighted combined value of RV = 2.61 ± 0.08 (for seven broad coverage cases). The `average GRB extinction curve' is similar to, but slightly steeper than the typical SMC, and consistent with the SMC Bar extinction curve at ˜95% confidence level. The resultant steeper extinction curves imply populations of small grains, where large dust grains may be destroyed due to GRB activity. Another possibility could be that young age and/or lower metallicities of GRBs environments are responsible for the steeper curves.

  16. Effects of overtraining on extinction in newts (Cynops pyrrhogaster).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibasaki, Masahiro; Ishida, Masato

    2012-11-01

    The overtraining extinction effect (OEE), a phenomenon in which extended training facilitates extinction, has been found in mammals and reptiles. However, fish have never shown OEE. No study has yet investigated OEE in newts, a representative amphibian species. We tested whether newts, Cynops pyrrhogaster, show OEE in a straight-array task. All animals received five trials per day and were given a piece of dried worm during reinforced trials. They showed significant acquisition and extinction effects in reinforced and nonreinforced trials. However, we found no difference in extinction performance between a group with 25-trial acquisition and one with 75-trial acquisition, suggesting that OEE was not found in newts. OEE has generally been explained in terms of frustration-related mechanisms. Our results suggest that emotional reactions to nonreward, such as frustration, may not influence behavior in amphibians.

  17. Extinction correction in white X-ray and neutron diffraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomiyoshi, S.; Yamada, M.; Watanabe, H.

    1980-01-01

    Extinction effects in white-beam X-ray and neutron diffraction are considered. In white-beam diffraction, a small deviation of the wavelength from the Bragg condition Δlambda is a variable which represents the line profile of the diffraction peaks, so that by using the new parameter Δlambda the theory is converted to one in white-beam diffraction. It is shown that for a convex crystal, primary extinction agrees with the results calculated already for monochromatic diffraction. The same relation is shown to hold in secondary extinction. It is concluded that extinction theory derived for monochromatic diffraction is applicable without any modification in white-beam diffraction. (Auth.)

  18. Manipulating parameters of reinforcement to reduce problem behavior without extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunnavatana, S Shanun; Bloom, Sarah E; Samaha, Andrew L; Slocum, Timothy A; Clay, Casey J

    2018-04-01

    Differential reinforcement of alternative behavior (DRA) most often includes extinction as a treatment component. However, extinction is not always feasible and it can be counter-therapeutic if implemented without optimal treatment integrity. Researchers have successfully implemented DRA without extinction by manipulating various parameters of reinforcement such that alternative behavior is favored. We extended previous research by assessing three participants' sensitivities to quality, magnitude, and immediacy using arbitrary responses and reinforcers that maintain problem behavior. The results were used to implement an intervention for problem behavior using DRA without extinction. Our findings indicate that arbitrary responses can be used to identify individual and relative sensitivity to parameters of reinforcement for reinforcers that maintain problem behavior. Treatment was effective for all participants when we manipulated parameters of reinforcement to which they were most sensitive, and, for two participants, the treatment was less effective when we manipulated parameters to which they were least sensitive. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  19. The ultraviolet interstellar extinction curve in the Pleiades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, A. N.; Bohlin, R. C.; Stecher, T. P.

    1981-01-01

    The wavelength dependence of ultraviolet extinction in the Pleiades dust clouds has been determined from IUE observations of HD 23512, the brightest heavily reddened member of the Pleiades cluster. There is evidence for an anomalously weak absorption bump at 2200 A, followed by an extinction rise in the far ultraviolet with an essentially normal slope. A relatively weak absorption band at 2200 A and a weak diffuse absorption band at 4430 A seem to be common characteristics of dust present in dense clouds. Evidence is presented which suggests that the extinction characteristics found for HD 23512 are typical for a class of extinction curves observed in several cases in the Galaxy and in the LMC.

  20. Extinction from a rationalist perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R

    2012-05-01

    The merging of the computational theory of mind and evolutionary thinking leads to a kind of rationalism, in which enduring truths about the world have become implicit in the computations that enable the brain to cope with the experienced world. The dead reckoning computation, for example, is implemented within the brains of animals as one of the mechanisms that enables them to learn where they are (Gallistel, 1990, 1995). It integrates a velocity signal with respect to a time signal. Thus, the manner in which position and velocity relate to one another in the world is reflected in the manner in which signals representing those variables are processed in the brain. I use principles of information theory and Bayesian inference to derive from other simple principles explanations for: (1) the failure of partial reinforcement to increase reinforcements to acquisition; (2) the partial reinforcement extinction effect; (3) spontaneous recovery; (4) renewal; (5) reinstatement; (6) resurgence (aka facilitated reacquisition). Like the principle underlying dead-reckoning, these principles are grounded in analytic considerations. They are the kind of enduring truths about the world that are likely to have shaped the brain's computations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning

    Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

  2. Alterations in neuronal morphology in infralimbic cortex predict resistance to fear extinction following acute stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly M. Moench

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Dysfunction in corticolimbic circuits that mediate the extinction of learned fear responses is thought to underlie the perseveration of fear in stress-related psychopathologies, including post-traumatic stress disorder. Chronic stress produces dendritic hypertrophy in basolateral amygdala (BLA and dendritic hypotrophy in medial prefrontal cortex, whereas acute stress leads to hypotrophy in both BLA and prelimbic cortex. Additionally, both chronic and acute stress impair extinction retrieval. Here, we examined the effects of a single elevated platform stress on extinction learning and dendritic morphology in infralimbic cortex, a region considered to be critical for extinction. Acute stress produced resistance to extinction, as well as dendritic retraction in infralimbic cortex. Spine density on apical and basilar terminal branches was unaffected by stress. However, animals that underwent conditioning and extinction had decreased spine density on apical terminal branches. Thus, whereas dendritic morphology in infralimbic cortex appears to be particularly sensitive to stress, changes in spines may more sensitively reflect learning. Further, in stressed rats that underwent conditioning and extinction, the level of extinction learning was correlated with spine densities, in that rats with poorer extinction retrieval had more immature spines and fewer thin spines than rats with better extinction retrieval, suggesting that stress may have impaired learning-related spine plasticity. These results may have implications for understanding the role of medial prefrontal cortex in learning deficits associated with stress-related pathologies.

  3. Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, B; Teng, I L; Muhammad Samudi, Y

    2011-11-01

    In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board, Malaysia, and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y(-1) permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77×10(-3) risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19×10(-3) risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

  4. Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ismail, B.; Teng, I. L.; Muhammad samudi, Y.

    2011-01-01

    In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (Malaysia), and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y -1 permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77 x 10 -3 risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19 x 10 -3 risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

  5. Pathways to extinction: beyond the error threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manrubia, Susanna C; Domingo, Esteban; Lázaro, Ester

    2010-06-27

    Since the introduction of the quasispecies and the error catastrophe concepts for molecular evolution by Eigen and their subsequent application to viral populations, increased mutagenesis has become a common strategy to cause the extinction of viral infectivity. Nevertheless, the high complexity of virus populations has shown that viral extinction can occur through several other pathways apart from crossing an error threshold. Increases in the mutation rate enhance the appearance of defective forms and promote the selection of mechanisms that are able to counteract the accelerated appearance of mutations. Current models of viral evolution take into account more realistic scenarios that consider compensatory and lethal mutations, a highly redundant genotype-to-phenotype map, rough fitness landscapes relating phenotype and fitness, and where phenotype is described as a set of interdependent traits. Further, viral populations cannot be understood without specifying the characteristics of the environment where they evolve and adapt. Altogether, it turns out that the pathways through which viral quasispecies go extinct are multiple and diverse.

  6. The effects of compound stimulus extinction and inhibition of noradrenaline reuptake on the renewal of alcohol seeking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlong, T M; Pan, M J; Corbit, L H

    2015-01-01

    Alcohol-related stimuli can trigger relapse of alcohol-seeking behaviors even after extended periods of abstinence. Extinction of such stimuli can reduce their impact on relapse; however, the expression of extinction can be disrupted when testing occurs outside the context where extinction learning took place, an effect termed renewal. Behavioral and pharmacological methods have recently been shown to augment extinction learning; yet, it is not known whether the improved expression of extinction following these treatments remains context-dependent. Here we examined whether two methods, compound–stimulus extinction and treatment with the noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine, would reduce the vulnerability of extinction to a change in context. Following alcohol self-administration, responding was extinguished in a distinct context. After initial extinction, further extinction was given to a target stimulus presented in compound with another alcohol-predictive stimulus intended to augment prediction error (Experiment 1) or after a systemic injection of atomoxetine (1.0 mg kg−1; Experiment 2). A stimulus extinguished as part of a compound elicited less responding than a stimulus receiving equal extinction alone regardless of whether animals were tested in the training or extinction context; however, reliable renewal was not observed in this paradigm. Importantly, atomoxetine enhanced extinction relative to controls even in the presence of a reliable renewal effect. Thus, extinction of alcohol-seeking behavior can be improved by extinguishing multiple alcohol-predictive stimuli or enhancing noradrenaline neurotransmission during extinction training. Importantly, both methods improve extinction even when the context is changed between extinction training and test, and thus could be utilized to enhance the outcome of extinction-based treatments for alcohol-use disorders. PMID:26327688

  7. Magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes in relation to seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, R.D.

    1989-01-01

    Estimating the frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes on a regional basis is an important task in estimating seismic risk at a construction site. Analysis of global earthquake data provides an insight into the magnitudes frequency relationship in a statistical manner. It turns out that, whereas a linear relationship between the logarithm of earthquake occurrence rates and the corresponding earthquake magnitudes fits well in the magnitude range between 5 and 7, a second degree polynomial in M, the earthquake magnitude provides a better description of the frequencies of earthquakes in a much wider range of magnitudes. It may be possible to adopt magnitude frequency relation for regions, for which adequate earthquake data are not available, to carry out seismic risk calculations. (author). 32 refs., 8 tabs., 7 figs

  8. MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L.; Muranen, Taru A.; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Liu, Jianjun; Hall, Per; Irwanto, Astrid; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Czene, Kamila; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Johnson, Nichola; Gibson, Lorna; Aitken, Zoe; Hopper, John L.; Tsimiklis, Helen; Bui, Minh; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Southey, Melissa C.; Apicella, Carmel; Stone, Jennifer; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel A.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Chanock, Stephen J.; Hunter, David J.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Reed, Malcolm W. R.; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Broeks, Annegien; Veer, Laura J. V. a. n't.; Hogervorst, Frans B.; Fasching, Peter A.; Schrauder, Michael G.; Ekici, Arif B.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Bojesen, Stig E.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Nielsen, Sune F.; Flyger, Henrik; Benitez, Javier; Zamora, Pilar M.; Perez, Jose I. A.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Dunning, Alison M.; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Couch, Fergus J.; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E.; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Mulot, Claire; Marme, Frederick; Burwinkel, Barbara; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J.; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A. E. M.; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J.; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E.; Ambrosone, Christine B.; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Barile, Monica; Mariani, Paolo; Hooning, Maartje J.; Martens, John W. M.; Collée, J. Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Giles, Graham G.; McLean, Catriona; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S.; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Mannermaa, Arto; Hamann, Ute; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Easton, Douglas F.; Nevanlinna, Heli

    2014-01-01

    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94–0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01–1.05) located in the 3′ UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects. PMID:25390939

  9. MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L; Muranen, Taru A; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K; Liu, Jianjun; Hall, Per; Irwanto, Astrid; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Czene, Kamila; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Johnson, Nichola; Gibson, Lorna; Aitken, Zoe; Hopper, John L; Tsimiklis, Helen; Bui, Minh; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F; Southey, Melissa C; Apicella, Carmel; Stone, Jennifer; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel A; van der Luijt, Rob B; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Chanock, Stephen J; Hunter, David J; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Reed, Malcolm W R; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Broeks, Annegien; Van't Veer, Laura J; Hogervorst, Frans B; Fasching, Peter A; Schrauder, Michael G; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Bojesen, Stig E; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Flyger, Henrik; Benitez, Javier; Zamora, Pilar M; Perez, Jose I A; Haiman, Christopher A; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Pharoah, Paul D P; Dunning, Alison M; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Couch, Fergus J; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Mulot, Claire; Marme, Frederick; Burwinkel, Barbara; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Sawyer, Elinor J; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J; Kristensen, Vessela N; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E; Ambrosone, Christine B; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Barile, Monica; Mariani, Paolo; Hooning, Maartje J; Martens, John W M; Collée, J Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Giles, Graham G; McLean, Catriona; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Mannermaa, Arto; Hamann, Ute; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Easton, Douglas F; Nevanlinna, Heli

    2014-01-01

    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05) located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

  10. MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Khan

    Full Text Available Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in microRNAs (miRNA or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS. Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC. Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI: 0.88-0.96, rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99, rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05 located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

  11. The extinction of the dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusatte, Stephen L; Butler, Richard J; Barrett, Paul M; Carrano, Matthew T; Evans, David C; Lloyd, Graeme T; Mannion, Philip D; Norell, Mark A; Peppe, Daniel J; Upchurch, Paul; Williamson, Thomas E

    2015-05-01

    Non-avian dinosaurs went extinct 66 million years ago, geologically coincident with the impact of a large bolide (comet or asteroid) during an interval of massive volcanic eruptions and changes in temperature and sea level. There has long been fervent debate about how these events affected dinosaurs. We review a wealth of new data accumulated over the past two decades, provide updated and novel analyses of long-term dinosaur diversity trends during the latest Cretaceous, and discuss an emerging consensus on the extinction's tempo and causes. Little support exists for a global, long-term decline across non-avian dinosaur diversity prior to their extinction at the end of the Cretaceous. However, restructuring of latest Cretaceous dinosaur faunas in North America led to reduced diversity of large-bodied herbivores, perhaps making communities more susceptible to cascading extinctions. The abruptness of the dinosaur extinction suggests a key role for the bolide impact, although the coarseness of the fossil record makes testing the effects of Deccan volcanism difficult. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  12. The Effect of the Extinction Procedure in Function-Based Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janney, Donna M.; Umbreit, John; Ferro, Jolenea B.; Liaupsin, Carl J.; Lane, Kathleen L.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we examined the contribution of the extinction procedure in function-based interventions implemented in the general education classrooms of three at-risk elementary-aged students. Function-based interventions included antecedent adjustments, reinforcement procedures, and function-matched extinction procedures. Using a combined ABC…

  13. Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Relation to Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Robert; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine the effects of temperature on cardiovascular-related (CVD) morbidity and mortality among New York City (NYC) residents. Introduction Extreme temperatures are consistently shown to have an effect on CVD-related mortality [1, 2]. A large multi-city study of mortality demonstrated a cold-day and hot-day weather effect on CVD-related deaths, with the larger impact occurring on the coldest days [3]. In contrast, the association between weather and CVD-related morbidity is less clear [4, 5]. The purpose of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on CVD-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and mortality on a large, heterogeneous population. Additionally, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of air pollutants, specifically fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), along with temperature, on CVD outcomes. Methods We analyzed daily weather conditions, ED visits classified as CVD-related based on chief complaint text, hospitalizations, and natural cause deaths that occurred in NYC between 2002 and 2006. ED visits were obtained from data reported daily to the city health department for syndromic surveillance. Inpatient admissions were obtained from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, a data reporting system developed by New York State. Mortality data were obtained from the NYC Office of Vital Statistics. Data for PM2.5 and O3 were obtained from all available air quality monitors within the five boroughs of NYC. To estimate risk of CVD morbidity and mortality, we used generalized linear models using a Poisson distribution to calculate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A non-linear distributed lag was used to model mean temperature in order to allow for its effect on the same day and on subsequent days. Models were fit separately for cold season (October through March) and warm season (April through September) given season may modify the effect on CVD

  14. Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

    2018-04-10

    Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Simulating the market coefficient of relative risk aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samih Antoine Azar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, expected utility, defined by a Taylor series expansion around expected wealth, is maximized. The coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA that is commensurate with a 100% investment in the risky asset is simulated. The following parameters are varied: the riskless return, the market standard deviation, the market stock premium, and the skewness and the kurtosis of the risky return. Both the high extremes and the low extremes are considered. With these figures, the upper bound of the market CRRA is 3.021 and the lower bound is 0.466. Log utility, which corresponds to a CRRA of 1, is not excluded.

  16. Ultraviolet extinction properties of grains in the interstellar medium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seab, C.G.

    1982-01-01

    The IUE satellite has been used to derive UV extinction curves for 58 stars, ranging in spectral type from 06 the A5, and with E(B-V) reddenings from 0.09 to 1.59 mag. The average reddening is 0.63 mag. Anomalous extinction curves were particularly sought in the project. The most striking discovery was the near absence of the 2175 Angstrom extinction feature from the line of sight towards HD 29647 in the Taurus dark cloud. The collection of data has been analyzed in several ways. Patterns are sought in the collection as a whole, in homogeneous subsets of the data, and in relation to diffuse band strengths. Apart from some well-known correlations, only a few weak relationships are found, including a quasi-relationship between the 2175 Angstrom bump and the 4430 Angstrom diffuse band that persists after the basic E(B-V) dependencies have been removed. A search for diffuse bands in the UV was done by stacking 48 of the extinction curves to reduce the noise. The stacked curve showed no evidence of new diffuse bands. To help interpret the anomalous extinction curves, a theoretical simulation of grain processing in interstellar shocks was undertaken. Shock processing was found to cause strong 2175 angstorm bumps and high far UV extinction. Comparison to extinction curves associated with supernova remnants confirms the predictions of strong 2175 Angstrom bumps, and partially confirms the prediction of high far UV extinction. The implications of all of these results are considered for the two most prominent grain models

  17. The atmospheric extinction of light

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, Stephen W; Powell, Sean; Carroll, Joshua; Cowley, Michael

    2016-01-01

    An experiment is described that enables students to understand the properties of atmospheric extinction due to Rayleigh scattering. The experiment requires the use of red, green and blue lasers attached to a travelling microscope or similar device. The laser beams are passed through an artificial atmosphere, made from milky water, at varying depths, before impinging on either a light meter or a photodiode integral to a Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC. A plot of measured spectral intensity verses depth reveals the contribution Rayleigh scattering has to the extinction coefficient. For the experiment with the light meter, the extinction coefficients for red, green and blue light in the milky sample of water were 0.27, 0.36 and 0.47 cm −1 respectively and 0.032, 0.037 and 0.092 cm −1 for the Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC. (paper)

  18. Infectious Disease, Endangerment, and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacPhee, Ross D. E.; Greenwood, Alex D.

    2013-01-01

    Infectious disease, especially virulent infectious disease, is commonly regarded as a cause of fluctuation or decline in biological populations. However, it is not generally considered as a primary factor in causing the actual endangerment or extinction of species. We review here the known historical examples in which disease has, or has been assumed to have had, a major deleterious impact on animal species, including extinction, and highlight some recent cases in which disease is the chief suspect in causing the outright endangerment of particular species. We conclude that the role of disease in historical extinctions at the population or species level may have been underestimated. Recent methodological breakthroughs may lead to a better understanding of the past and present roles of infectious disease in influencing population fitness and other parameters. PMID:23401844

  19. Attention as the 'glue' for object integration in parietal extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conci, Markus; Groß, Julia; Keller, Ingo; Müller, Hermann J; Finke, Kathrin

    2018-04-01

    Patients with unilateral, parietal brain damage frequently show visual extinction, which manifests in a failure to identify contralesional stimuli when presented simultaneously with other, ipsilesional stimuli (but full awareness for single stimulus presentations). Extinction reflects an impairment of spatial selective attention, leaving basic preattentive processing unaffected. For instance, access to bilaterally grouped objects is usually spared in extinction, suggesting that grouping occurs at a stage preceding (in the patients: abnormally biased) spatial-attentional selection. Here, we reinvestigated this notion by comparing (largely between participants, but also within a single-case participant) conditions with objects that varied in their dominant direction of grouping: from the attended to the non-attended hemifield (data from Conci et al., 2009) versus from the non-attended to the attended hemifield (new data). We observe complete absence of extinction when shape completion extended from the attended hemifield. By contrast, extinction was not diminished when object groupings propagate from the unattended hemifield. Moreover, we found the individual severity of the attentional impairment (assessed by a standard "inattention" test) to be directly related to the degree of completion in the unattended hemifield. This pattern indicates that grouping can overcome visual extinction only when object integration departs from the attended visual field, implying, contrary to many previous accounts, that attention is crucial for grouping to be initiated. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Fish extinctions alter nutrient recycling in tropical freshwaters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, Peter B; Jones, Laura E; Flecker, Alexander S; Vanni, Michael J

    2007-03-13

    There is increasing evidence that species extinctions jeopardize the functioning of ecosystems. Overfishing and other human influences are reducing the diversity and abundance of fish worldwide, but the ecosystem-level consequences of these changes have not been assessed quantitatively. Recycling of nutrients is one important ecosystem process that is directly influenced by fish. Fish species vary widely in the rates at which they excrete nitrogen and phosphorus; thus, altering fish communities could affect nutrient recycling. Here, we use extensive field data on nutrient recycling rates and population sizes of fish species in a Neotropical river and Lake Tanganyika, Africa, to evaluate the effects of simulated extinctions on nutrient recycling. In both of these species-rich ecosystems, recycling was dominated by relatively few species, but contributions of individual species differed between nitrogen and phosphorus. Alternative extinction scenarios produced widely divergent patterns. Loss of the species targeted by fishermen led to faster declines in nutrient recycling than extinctions in order of rarity, body size, or trophic position. However, when surviving species were allowed to increase after extinctions, these compensatory responses had strong moderating effects even after losing many species. Our results underscore the complexity of predicting the consequences of extinctions from species-rich animal communities. Nevertheless, the importance of exploited species in nutrient recycling suggests that overfishing could have particularly detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning.

  1. Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Owen T

    2006-01-29

    An article published in the journal Nature in January 2004-in which an international team of biologists predicted that climate change would, by 2050, doom 15-37% of the earth's species to extinction-attracted unprecedented, worldwide media attention. The predictions conflict with the conventional wisdom that habitat change and modification are the most important causes of current and future extinctions. The new extinction projections come from applying a well-known ecological pattern, the species-area relationship (SAR), to data on the current distributions and climatic requirements of 1103 species. Here, I examine the scientific basis to the claims made in the Nature article. I first highlight the potential and pitfalls of using the SAR to predict extinctions in general. I then consider the additional complications that arise when applying SAR methods specifically to climate change. I assess the extent to which these issues call into question predictions of extinctions from climate change relative to other human impacts, and highlight a danger that conservation resources will be directed away from attempts to slow and mitigate the continuing effects of habitat destruction and degradation, particularly in the tropics. I suggest that the most useful contributions of ecologists over the coming decades will be in partitioning likely extinctions among interacting causes and identifying the practical means to slow the rate of species loss.

  2. Extinction and renewal of cue-elicited reward-seeking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezzina, Louise; Lee, Jessica C; Lovibond, Peter F; Colagiuri, Ben

    2016-12-01

    Reward cues can contribute to overconsumption of food and drugs and can relapse. The failure of exposure therapies to reduce overconsumption and relapse is generally attributed to the context-specificity of extinction. However, no previous study has examined whether cue-elicited reward-seeking (as opposed to cue-reactivity) is sensitive to context renewal. We tested this possibility in 160 healthy volunteers using a Pavlovian-instrumental transfer (PIT) design involving voluntary responding for a high value natural reward (chocolate). One reward cue underwent Pavlovian extinction in the same (Group AAA) or different context (Group ABA) to all other phases. This cue was compared with a second non-extinguished reward cue and an unpaired control cue. There was a significant overall PIT effect with both reward cues eliciting reward-seeking on test relative to the unpaired cue. Pavlovian extinction substantially reduced this effect, with the extinguished reward cue eliciting less reward-seeking than the non-extinguished reward cue. Most interestingly, extinction of cue-elicited reward-seeking was sensitive to renewal, with extinction less effective for reducing PIT when conducted in a different context. These findings have important implications for extinction-based interventions for reducing maladaptive reward-seeking in practice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Energy use and related risk management problems in CEE countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ney, R.; Michna, J.; Ekmanis, J.; Zeltins, N.; Zebergs, V.

    2008-01-01

    Nowadays, the efficiency of energy use in the Central and East-European (CEE) countries is insufficient, being much lower than in the 'Old Europe'. The problem becomes increasingly pressing due to non-stop increasing prices of energy carriers (especially of crude oil). The authors trace the development of research activities in this sphere, classifying the revealed changes in parameters of energy consumption processes in particular time intervals into deterministic, probabilistic, and fuzzy. The paper presents a thorough analysis of decision-making in the energy management at its different levels normative, strategic, and operative. Particular attention is given to the management under uncertainty conditions - i.e. to the risk management. The most wanted research directions in this area proposed by the energy and environment policy (EEP) Center specially created for CEE countries concern management under risk connected with innovations, international activities, loss of reputation, etc.. The authors consider in detail the risk management with insufficient knowledge (non-knowledge) and under chaos. Much consideration is given to the scenario management and the game theory principles as related to the sphere of energy use. (Authors)

  4. Substance-related traffic-risk behaviors among college students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arria, Amelia M.; Caldeira, Kimberly M.; Vincent, Kathryn B.; Garnier-Dykstra, Laura M.; O’Grady, Kevin E.

    2011-01-01

    Aims Drunk driving is a major public health concern, but drugged driving has received little attention. This study examines drugged driving and riding with a drugged driver in a college student sample, in terms of prevalence, age-related trends, race/sex differences, overlap with drunk driving, and risk for alcohol and marijuana dependence. Methods Students (N=1194) ages 19 to 22 were interviewed annually for three years about past-year frequency of drugged driving, riding with a drugged/drunk driver, drunk driving, access to a car, and alcohol/drug dependence. Annual follow-up rates were excellent (88% to 91%). Repeated measures analyses were conducted using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Results One in six (17%wt) 19-year-olds with access to a car drove drugged in the past year; prevalence remained stable through age 22. Drugged driving was more prevalent among males (pdrunk (ranges between 47% and 60%). Both drugged and drunk driving were independently associated with increased risk for alcohol dependence, holding constant age, sex, and race. Drunk driving did not add to the risk for marijuana dependence in the context of drugged driving. Conclusions The prevalence of drugged driving is similar to drunk driving among college students. Both are strongly associated with underlying alcohol and drug dependence. Prevention and treatment implications are discussed. PMID:21601379

  5. Path Forward to Space Solar Power using the O'Neill - Glaser Model Modified for Climate Change Demand and Considering the Increasing Risk of Human Self-Extinction if Confined to Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curreri, Peter A.; Nall, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The cost of energy is humanity's economic exchange rate with the universe. Space solar power is the first great step that our technological species has to utilize the energy of its star. The classic Peter Glaser Solar Power Satellite, SPS, and later designs collect a large area of solar energy in space and beam it back to Earth for use in the electric grid, but even with optimistic launch costs and technology innovation a clear economic path is not evident using Earth launch of SPS. O Neill in 1969 solved the transportation costs problem by a model that uses lunar and asteroid materials to build SPS and locates the labor force permanently in space (O Neill free space habitats). This solution closes the economics and predicts large profits after 17-35 years. However the costs of time have up to now prevented this solution. We discuss a strategy to move forward in SPS with the motivations to stop global warming and prevent human selfextinction. There are near term steps that can be taken that place us on this path forward. First, we must reevaluate the technologies for the classic model and update the parameters to current technology. As technological capability continues to increase exponentially, we need to understand when the monetary potential energy hills are small as the technology gets larger. But the chance for self-extinction, if humanity remains in a single vulnerable habitat, also increased exponentially with time. The path forward is to identify investment points while assessing the risks of non-action.

  6. Energy drinks and alcohol-related risk among young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caviness, Celeste M; Anderson, Bradley J; Stein, Michael D

    2017-01-01

    Energy drink consumption, with or without concurrent alcohol use, is common among young adults. This study sought to clarify risk for negative alcohol outcomes related to the timing of energy drink use. The authors interviewed a community sample of 481 young adults, aged 18-25, who drank alcohol in the last month. Past-30-day energy drink use was operationalized as no-use, use without concurrent alcohol, and concurrent use of energy drinks with alcohol ("within a couple of hours"). Negative alcohol outcomes included past-30-day binge drinking, past-30-day alcohol use disorder, and drinking-related consequences. Just over half (50.5%) reported no use of energy drinks,18.3% reported using energy drinks without concurrent alcohol use, and 31.2% reported concurrent use of energy drinks and alcohol. Relative to those who reported concurrent use of energy drinks with alcohol, and controlling for background characteristics and frequency of alcohol consumption, those who didn't use energy drinks and those who used without concurrent alcohol use had significantly lower binge drinking, negative consequences, and rates of alcohol use disorder (P energy drink without concurrent alcohol groups on any alcohol-related measure (P > .10 for all outcomes). Concurrent energy drink and alcohol use is associated with increased risk for negative alcohol consequences in young adults. Clinicians providing care to young adults could consider asking patients about concurrent energy drink and alcohol use as a way to begin a conversation about risky alcohol consumption while addressing 2 substances commonly used by this population.

  7. Trampoline related injuries in children: risk factors and radiographic findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimek, Peter Michael; Juen, David; Stranzinger, Enno; Wolf, Rainer; Slongo, Theddy

    2013-05-01

    Backyard trampolines are immensely popular among children, but are associated with an increase of trampoline-related injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate radiographs of children with trampoline related injuries and to determine the risk factors. Between 2003 and 2009, 286 children under the age of 16 with backyard trampoline injuries were included in the study. The number of injuries increased from 13 patients in 2003 to 86 in 2009. The median age of the 286 patients was 7 years (range: 1-15 years). Totally 140 (49%) patients were males, and 146 (51%) females. Medical records and all available diagnostic imaging were reviewed. A questionnaire was sent to the parents to evaluate the circumstances of each injury, the type of trampoline, the protection equipment and the experience of the children using the trampoline. The study was approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of the University Hospital of Bern. The questionnaires and radiographs of the 104 patients were available for evaluation. A fracture was sustained in 51 of the 104 patients. More than 75% of all patients sustaining injuries and in 90% of patients with fractures were jumping on the trampoline with other children at the time of the accident. The most common fractures were supracondylar humeral fractures (29%) and forearm fractures (25%). Fractures of the proximal tibia occurred especially in younger children between 2-5 years of age. Children younger than 5 years old are at risk for specific proximal tibia fractures ("Trampoline Fracture"). A child jumping simultaneously with other children has a higher risk of suffering from a fracture.

  8. Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

    2007-03-01

    To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

  9. Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

    1982-10-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included

  10. Perceptions of risk from workers in high risk industries with work related musculoskeletal disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, D; Silverstein, B

    2014-01-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) remain a major occupational health problem, despite decades of research, outreach, and intervention. The aim of this study is to promote early identification and prevention of WMSDs by developing education and outreach materials grounded in interview data collected from workers that have recently filed for workers compensation (WC) for WMSDs. We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with WC claimants (n=66) from high risk industries identified through the use of a Prevention Index (PI) in Washington state with WMSDs of the back, shoulder, hand/wrist, or knee. Perceptions regarding the degree of exposure to WMSD risk factors, the social construction of pain, and the potential to implement injury-prevention measures varied widely. Many workers dismissed their injuries as the result of "fluke" or "freak" occurrences and framed their exposure to risk factors for WMSDs as either inevitable or "just part of the job." Workers in high-risk industries for WMSDs described their work conditions in ways that suggested: (1) a lack of awareness of the potential for developing a WMSD, (2) a view of work-related pain as normal, and/or (3) a pattern of self-blame for WMSD onset. A paradigm that either asserts the inevitability of WMSDs or dismisses potential control measures presents both a significant barrier to injury prevention efforts as well as a major opportunity for future occupational health research.

  11. Autoantibodies to IA-2beta improve diabetes risk assessment in high-risk relatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Achenbach, P; Bonifacio, E; Williams, A J K

    2008-01-01

    -positive participants (median age 12.1 years; 57% male), 113 developed diabetes (5 year cumulative risk 56%), and 148 were also GADA-positive and IAA-positive (4Ab-positive). IA2betaA were detected in 137 (65%) ICA/IA2A-positive participants and were associated with an increased 5 year diabetes risk (IA2beta......A-positive 65 vs 39% in IA2betaA-negative, p=0.0002). The effect was most marked in 4Ab-positive relatives (72% vs 52%, p=0.003). Metabolic testing further refined risk assessment. Among 101 4Ab-positive relatives with IA2betaA, the 5 year risk was 94% in those with a low FPIR (vs 50% in those with a normal...... FPIR, p4Ab/IA2betaA-positive participants with a low FPIR was 1.5 years. Multivariate analysis confirmed IA2betaA status, antibody number, young...

  12. Risk Management in Supply Chain using Consistent Fuzzy Preference Relations

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad Jafarnejad; Mehran Ebrahimi; Mohammad Ali Abbaszadeh; Seyed Mehdi Abtahi

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, supply chains are exposed to numerous risks. Thus, to success in risky business environment, it is imperative for firms to systematically manage supply chain risks. Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of supply chain risks. The purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive approach to risk management in supply chains. Thus, by an appropriate review of the literature, supply chain risk sources are identified in six areas. Then, a CFPR method is...

  13. The effects of instructions on the sensitivity of negatively reinforced human behavior to extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandri, Jérôme; Cançado, Carlos R X

    2017-03-01

    The effects of instructions on the sensitivity of negatively reinforced (escape) behavior to extinction were studied. Initially, responding produced timeouts from pressing a force cell on a variable-ratio (VR) schedule, which was then discontinued (extinction). Based on extinction data, participants were distributed into two groups. Participants in the Persistence Group (for which response rates were low in extinction) were instructed that the experimenter expected them to continue responding in extinction after a second exposure to the VR schedule. Participants in the Extinction group (for which response rates were high in extinction) were instructed that the experimenter expected them to stop responding in extinction. Relative to the condition in which instructions were absent, extinction-response rates increased and decreased, respectively, for participants in the Persistence and Extinction groups. These results replicate and extend to negatively reinforced responding previous findings that showed behavioral control by instructions formulated as explicit experimenter demands or expectations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Extinction after fear memory reactivation fails to eliminate renewal in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goode, Travis D; Holloway-Erickson, Crystal M; Maren, Stephen

    2017-07-01

    Retrieving fear memories just prior to extinction has been reported to effectively erase fear memories and prevent fear relapse. The current study examined whether the type of retrieval procedure influences the ability of extinction to impair fear renewal, a form of relapse in which responding to a conditional stimulus (CS) returns outside of the extinction context. Rats first underwent Pavlovian fear conditioning with an auditory CS and footshock unconditional stimulus (US); freezing behavior served as the index of conditioned fear. Twenty-four hours later, the rats underwent a retrieval-extinction procedure. Specifically, 1h prior to extinction (45 CS-alone trials; 44 for rats receiving a CS reminder), fear memory was retrieved by either a single exposure to the CS alone, the US alone, a CS paired with the US, or exposure to the conditioning context itself. Over the next few days, conditional freezing to the extinguished CS was tested in the extinction and conditioning context in that order (i.e., an ABBA design). In the extinction context, rats that received a CS+US trial before extinction exhibited higher levels of conditional freezing than animals in all other groups, which did not differ from one another. In the renewal context, all groups showed renewal, and none of the reactivation procedures reduced renewal relative to a control group that did not receive a reactivation procedure prior to extinction. These data suggest retrieval-extinction procedures may have limited efficacy in preventing fear renewal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Diversification dynamics of rhynchostomatian ciliates: the impact of seven intrinsic traits on speciation and extinction in a microbial group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vďačný, Peter; Rajter, Ľubomír; Shazib, Shahed Uddin Ahmed; Jang, Seok Won; Shin, Mann Kyoon

    2017-08-30

    Ciliates are a suitable microbial model to investigate trait-dependent diversification because of their comparatively complex morphology and high diversity. We examined the impact of seven intrinsic traits on speciation, extinction, and net-diversification of rhynchostomatians, a group of comparatively large, predatory ciliates with proboscis carrying a dorsal brush (sensoric structure) and toxicysts (organelles used to kill the prey). Bayesian estimates under the binary-state speciation and extinction model indicate that two types of extrusomes and two-rowed dorsal brush raise diversification through decreasing extinction. On the other hand, the higher number of contractile vacuoles and their dorsal location likely increase diversification via elevating speciation rate. Particular nuclear characteristics, however, do not significantly differ in their diversification rates and hence lineages with various macronuclear patterns and number of micronuclei have similar probabilities to generate new species. Likelihood-based quantitative state diversification analyses suggest that rhynchostomatians conform to Cope's rule in that their diversity linearly grows with increasing body length and relative length of the proboscis. Comparison with other litostomatean ciliates indicates that rhynchostomatians are not among the cladogenically most successful lineages and their survival over several hundred million years could be associated with their comparatively large and complex bodies that reduce the risk of extinction.

  16. Mass Extinctions and Supernova Explosions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korschinek, Gunther

    A nearby supernova (SN) explosion could have negatively influenced life on Earth, maybe even been responsible for mass extinctions. Mass extinction poses a significant extinction of numerous species on Earth, as recorded in the paleontologic, paleoclimatic, and geological record of our planet. Depending on the distance between the Sun and the SN, different types of threats have to be considered, such as ozone depletion on Earth, causing increased exposure to the Sun's ultraviolet radiation or the direct exposure of lethal X-rays. Another indirect effect is cloud formation, induced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere which result in a drop in the Earth's temperature, causing major glaciations of the Earth. The discovery of highly intensive gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), which could be connected to SNe, initiated further discussions on possible life-threatening events in the Earth's history. The probability that GRBs hit the Earth is very low. Nevertheless, a past interaction of Earth with GRBs and/or SNe cannot be excluded and might even have been responsible for past extinction events.

  17. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  18. New theories about ancient extinctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spall, H.

    1986-01-01

    The abrupt disappearance of all the dinosaurs about 65 million years ago, along with perhaps half the plant species and other animals, has been one of the great geological mysteries. Clues to the cause of these extinctions have been scarce and open to many interpretations.

  19. Extinction debt on oceanic islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Triantis, Kostas A.; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Ladle, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    the magnitude of such future extinction events has been hampered by potentially inaccurate assumptions about the slope of species-area relationships, which are habitat- and taxon-specific. We overcome this challenge by applying a method that uses the historical sequence of deforestation in the Azorean Islands...

  20. The Role of the Medial Prefrontal Cortex in Trace Fear Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwapis, Janine L.; Jarome, Timothy J.; Helmstetter, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    The extinction of delay fear conditioning relies on a neural circuit that has received much attention and is relatively well defined. Whether this established circuit also supports the extinction of more complex associations, however, is unclear. Trace fear conditioning is a better model of complex relational learning, yet the circuit that…

  1. The currency and tempo of extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, H M; Lupia, R; Drinnan, A N; Burgman, M A

    2001-01-01

    This study examines estimates of extinction rates for the current purported biotic crisis and from the fossil record. Studies that compare current and geological extinctions sometimes use metrics that confound different sources of error and reflect different features of extinction processes. The per taxon extinction rate is a standard measure in paleontology that avoids some of the pitfalls of alternative approaches. Extinction rates reported in the conservation literature are rarely accompanied by measures of uncertainty, despite many elements of the calculations being subject to considerable error. We quantify some of the most important sources of uncertainty and carry them through the arithmetic of extinction rate calculations using fuzzy numbers. The results emphasize that estimates of current and future rates rely heavily on assumptions about the tempo of extinction and on extrapolations among taxa. Available data are unlikely to be useful in measuring magnitudes or trends in current extinction rates.

  2. The downside of strong emotional memories: how human memory-related genes influence the risk for posttraumatic stress disorder--a selective review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilker, Sarah; Elbert, Thomas; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana

    2014-07-01

    A good memory for emotionally arousing experiences may be intrinsically adaptive, as it helps the organisms to predict safety and danger and to choose appropriate responses to prevent potential harm. However, under conditions of repeated exposure to traumatic stressors, strong emotional memories of these experiences can lead to the development of trauma-related disorders such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This syndrome is characterized by distressing intrusive memories that can be so intense that the survivor is unable to discriminate past from present experiences. This selective review on the role of memory-related genes in PTSD etiology is divided in three sections. First, we summarize studies indicating that the likelihood to develop PTSD depends on the cumulative exposure to traumatic stressors and on individual predisposing risk factors, including a substantial genetic contribution to PTSD risk. Second, we focus on memory processes supposed to be involved in PTSD etiology and present evidence for PTSD-associated alterations in both implicit (fear conditioning, fear extinction) and explicit memory for emotional material. This is supplemented by a brief description of structural and functional alterations in memory-relevant brain regions in PTSD. Finally, we summarize a selection of studies indicating that genetic variations found to be associated with enhanced fear conditioning, reduced fear extinction or better episodic memory in human experimental studies can have clinical implications in the case of trauma exposure and influence the risk of PTSD development. Here, we focus on genes involved in noradrenergic (ADRA2B), serotonergic (SLC6A4), and dopaminergic signaling (COMT) as well as in the molecular cascades of memory formation (PRKCA and WWC1). This is supplemented by initial evidence that such memory-related genes might also influence the response rates of exposure-based psychotherapy or pharmacological treatment of PTSD, which underscores the

  3. Complementary sex determination substantially increases extinction proneness of haplodiploid populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zayed, Amro; Packer, Laurence

    2005-07-26

    The role of genetic factors in extinction is firmly established for diploid organisms, but haplodiploids have been considered immune to genetic load impacts because deleterious alleles are readily purged in haploid males. However, we show that single-locus complementary sex determination ancestral to the haplodiploid Hymenoptera (ants, bees, and wasps) imposes a substantial genetic load through homozygosity at the sex locus that results in the production of inviable or sterile diploid males. Using stochastic modeling, we have discovered that diploid male production (DMP) can initiate a rapid and previously uncharacterized extinction vortex. The extinction rate in haplodiploid populations with DMP is an order of magnitude greater than in its absence under realistic but conservative demographic parameter values. Furthermore, DMP alone can elevate the base extinction risk in haplodiploids by over an order of magnitude higher than that caused by inbreeding depression in threatened diploids. Thus, contrary to previous expectations, haplodiploids are more, rather than less, prone to extinction for genetic reasons. Our findings necessitate a fundamental shift in approaches to the conservation and population biology of these ecologically and economically crucial insects.

  4. Measuring the meltdown: drivers of global amphibian extinction and decline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navjot S Sodhi

    Full Text Available Habitat loss, climate change, over-exploitation, disease and other factors have been hypothesised in the global decline of amphibian biodiversity. However, the relative importance of and synergies among different drivers are still poorly understood. We present the largest global analysis of roughly 45% of known amphibians (2,583 species to quantify the influences of life history, climate, human density and habitat loss on declines and extinction risk. Multi-model Bayesian inference reveals that large amphibian species with small geographic range and pronounced seasonality in temperature and precipitation are most likely to be Red-Listed by IUCN. Elevated habitat loss and human densities are also correlated with high threat risk. Range size, habitat loss and more extreme seasonality in precipitation contributed to decline risk in the 2,454 species that declined between 1980 and 2004, compared to species that were stable (n = 1,545 or had increased (n = 28. These empirical results show that amphibian species with restricted ranges should be urgently targeted for conservation.

  5. Measuring the meltdown: drivers of global amphibian extinction and decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sodhi, Navjot S; Bickford, David; Diesmos, Arvin C; Lee, Tien Ming; Koh, Lian Pin; Brook, Barry W; Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2008-02-20

    Habitat loss, climate change, over-exploitation, disease and other factors have been hypothesised in the global decline of amphibian biodiversity. However, the relative importance of and synergies among different drivers are still poorly understood. We present the largest global analysis of roughly 45% of known amphibians (2,583 species) to quantify the influences of life history, climate, human density and habitat loss on declines and extinction risk. Multi-model Bayesian inference reveals that large amphibian species with small geographic range and pronounced seasonality in temperature and precipitation are most likely to be Red-Listed by IUCN. Elevated habitat loss and human densities are also correlated with high threat risk. Range size, habitat loss and more extreme seasonality in precipitation contributed to decline risk in the 2,454 species that declined between 1980 and 2004, compared to species that were stable (n = 1,545) or had increased (n = 28). These empirical results show that amphibian species with restricted ranges should be urgently targeted for conservation.

  6. EARTH SCIENCE: Did Volcanoes Drive Ancient Extinctions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, R A

    2000-08-18

    With the publication in recent weeks of two papers on a mass extinction 183 million years ago, researchers can add five suggestive cases to the list of extinctions with known causes. These extinctions coincide with massive outpourings of lava, accompanied by signs that global warming threw the ocean-atmosphere system out of whack. Although no one can yet pin any of these mass extinctions with certainty on the volcanic eruptions, scientists say it's unlikely that they're all coincidences.

  7. An investigation of the interstellar extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, P.F.; Aitken, D.K.; Melbourne Univ., Point Cook

    1984-01-01

    The 10 μm extinction towards six WC8 or WC9 Wolf-Rayet stars is investigated. All objects show smooth dust emission suffering silicate absorption with depths well correlated with the extinction in the visible. The de-reddened spectra are well represented by emission from featureless grain components, possibly from iron or carbon grains. The extinction to the stars is found to be dominantly interstellar in origin with little extinction from the circumstellar shell. (author)

  8. Evaluation of hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nankaku, Manabu; Kanzaki, Hideto; Tsuboyama, Tadao; Nakamura, Takashi

    2005-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction, and to elucidate factors that influence the impact force in falls on the hip. Eight healthy volunteers performed deliberate falls in three directions (lateral, posterolateral and posterior) on a force platform covered by a mattress of 13 cm thickness. Fall descent motions and impact postures were examined by a three-dimensional analyzer. The maximum ground force reaction, velocity of the greater trochanter at impact, and activity of quadriceps and gluteus medius were measured. In all trials of lateral and posterolateral falls, but not of posterior falls, the subjects hit their greater trochanter directly on the mattress. The impact forces were between 2,000 N and 4,000 N. Posterolateral falls showed significantly higher velocity at impact than did posterior falls. The height and the lower limb length exhibited positive correlations with the impact force in all directions of fall. In the lateral fall, there was a positive correlation between the activity of quadriceps and the impact force. In view of the impact point, force, and velocity, the posterolateral fall seemed to carry the highest risk of hip fracture.

  9. Demographic And Risk Factors Related To Military Tuberculosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rasolinejad

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: Tuberculosis is one the major health care problems in developing countries. Miliary tuberculosis is induced by blood dissemination of multiple tubercle bacilli, the paramount importance of accurate diagnosis of military tuberculosis is because of its dismal outcome if untreated and the chance of cure if diagnosis happens early in the course of the disorder. In this study we describe the demographic and risk factors related to military tuberculosis, which enables us to control and reduce the incidence of military tuberculosis. This ultimately reduces the mortality and morbidity consistent with this disorder. Materials and Methods: we conducted a retrospective case control study, which compares 28 patients with military tuberculosis and 56 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis as control. We reviewed all the patients' documents registered between years 1994-2004, after extracting raw data we analyzed them with chi-square and Fisher exact tests. Results and Conclusion: We found that HIV (P< 0.05 infection and lack of BCG vaccination (P< 0.05 increases the number of military tuberculosis among our patients. In addition we did not find any other significant risk factor.

  10. Literature search on risks related to ionizing radiations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abou Anoma, G.; Bijaoui, A.; Gauron, C.

    2013-09-01

    The authors propose a selection of information sources regarding risks related to ionizing radiations. They present knowledge bases which can be found on different Internet sites belonging to different bodies and agencies (IRSN, CEA, INRS, SFRP, CNRS, Radioprotection Cirkus, EDF) and in different books. They present information sources dealing with radionuclides which can be found in French and international Internet sites and in books, information sources concerning different professional activities and sectors (ASN, IRSN, INRS, medical-professional sheets proposed by the CISME, sheets proposed by the Labour Ministry and other bodies). It presents information sources dealing with radiological incidents, accidents and emergencies, dealing with radioactive wastes, with the legal European and French framework. Some additional tools of general or more detailed information are indicated (CIPR, IAEA, UNSCAR, IRPA, IRSN, SFRP, CEA, CEPN, Radiation Cirkus, books). Ways to get an updated search are indicated for different databases, as well as some practical services

  11. Further Evidence of Auditory Extinction in Aphasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Rebecca Shisler; Basilakos, Alexandra; Love-Myers, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Preliminary research ( Shisler, 2005) suggests that auditory extinction in individuals with aphasia (IWA) may be connected to binding and attention. In this study, the authors expanded on previous findings on auditory extinction to determine the source of extinction deficits in IWA. Method: Seventeen IWA (M[subscript age] = 53.19 years)…

  12. Relative risk perception for terrorism: implications for preparedness and risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caponecchia, Carlo

    2012-09-01

    Terrorism presents a significant risk that is often approached at public policy, infrastructure, or emergency management level. Public perceptions of the likelihood of terrorist events, and how this may relate to individual preparedness, are not always extensively examined. The tendency to think that negative events are less likely to happen to oneself than to the average person is known as optimism bias. Optimism bias is relevant to perceptions of terrorism, because it is thought to be related to a reduction in precaution use. Using an online survey of 164 participants, this study aimed to determine whether Sydney residents thought they had a lower likelihood of experiencing terrorist events than other Australians. Significant optimism bias was observed for witnessing terrorist events, but not for personally experiencing terrorist events. In addition, Sydney residents tended to think that terrorist attacks were more likely to occur in Sydney than another major Australian city in the next five years. At the same time, household and workplace preparedness for terrorism was quite low, as was awareness of emergency strategies in the central business district. Perceptions of high likelihood of terrorism happening in one's own city, yet low preparedness present a challenge for risk communication and emergency management strategies. The diversity of possible terrorist targets, and the simple plans that can moderate the effects of a disaster may need to be emphasized in future anti-terrorism initiatives. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Public relations in risk communication: risk pr. The importance of public relations for risk communication; Public Relations in der Risikokommunikation: Risiko-PR. Die Bedeutung von Public Relations fuer die Risikokommunikation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehmann, K.

    2001-07-01

    Risks have become a central problem of our time, as is reflected in concepts like 'society at risk' and 'anti-technological attitude', in group protest against risks and against those who cause them, and last but not least in the critical attitude of the media. Against this background, organisations must needs enter the public discussion and be able to communicate professionally and convincingly in order to ensure their own success and further existence. The book describes the basic problems of risk research and risk communications and discusses inhowfar, and how, public relations strategies and instruments can help here. [German] Risiken werden verstaerkt zum Problem unserer Zeit. Das belegen nicht nur Begriffe wie 'Risikogesellschaft' und 'Technikfeindlichkeit', die in letzter Zeit an Bedeutung gewonnen haben, sondern auch und vor allem nachhaltige Proteste von engagierten Gruppierungen gegen Risiken und deren Verursacher oder auch die kritische Berichterstattung der Medien. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es fuer Organisationen erforderlich, in die oeffentliche Auseinandersetzung um Risiken einzusteigen und hier professionell und ueberzeugend zu kommunizieren, um den Organisationserfolg und Organisationsbestand zu sichern. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt die Grundprobleme der Risikoforschung und Risikokommunikation und diskutiert, ob und inwieweit Public Relations bei der Loesung dieser Probleme helfen koennen, da insbesondere Public Relations gezielt Strategien und Instrumente nutzen, um beispielsweise den Wissensstand der Oeffentlichkeit zu verbessern und den Dialog mit relevanten Teiloeffentlichkeiten zu foerdern. (orig.)

  14. Spatial memory extinction: a c-Fos protein mapping study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-Couz, M; Conejo, N M; Vallejo, G; Arias, J L

    2014-03-01

    While the neuronal basis of spatial memory consolidation has been thoroughly studied, the substrates mediating the process of extinction remain largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the functional contribution of selected brain regions during the extinction of a previously acquired spatial memory task in the Morris water maze. For that purpose, we used adult male Wistar rats trained in a spatial reference memory task. Learning-related changes in c-Fos inmunoreactive cells after training were evaluated in cortical and subcortical regions. Results show that removal of the hidden platform in the water maze induced extinction of the previously reinforced escape behavior after 16 trials, without spontaneous recovery 24h later. Extinction was related with significantly higher numbers of c-Fos positive nuclei in amygdala nuclei and prefrontal cortex. On the other hand, the lateral mammillary bodies showed higher number of c-Fos positive cells than the control group. Therefore, in contrast with the results obtained in studies of classical conditioning, we show the involvement of diencephalic structures mediating this kind of learning. In summary, our findings suggest that medial prefrontal cortex, the amygdala complex and diencephalic structures like the lateral mammillary nuclei are relevant for the extinction of spatial memory. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Species Turnover through Time: Colonization and Extinction Dynamics across Metacommunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuvoloni, Felipe Micali; Feres, Reinaldo José Fazzio; Gilbert, Benjamin

    2016-06-01

    Island biogeography and metacommunity theory often use equilibrium assumptions to predict local diversity, yet nonequilibrium dynamics are common in nature. In nonequilibrium communities, local diversity fluctuates through time as the relative importance of colonization and extinction change. Here, we test the prevalence and causes of nonequilibrium dynamics in metacommunities of mites associated with rubber trees distributed over large spatial (>1,000 km) and temporal (>30-60 generations) scales in Brazil. We measured colonization and extinction rates to test species turnover and nonequilibrium dynamics over a growing season. Mite metacommunities exhibited nonequilibrium dynamics for most months of the year, and these dynamics tracked climatic conditions. Monthly shifts in temperature of more than 1°C resulted in nonequilibrium dynamics, as did mean temperatures outside of two critical ranges. Nonequilibrium dynamics were caused by a change in colonization with temperature change and changes in both colonization and extinction with absolute temperature. Species turnover showed different trends; high relative humidity increased both colonization and extinction rates, increasing turnover but not nonequilibrium dynamics. Our study illustrates that testing nonequilibrium dynamics can provide new insights into the drivers of colonization, extinction, and diversity fluctuations in metacommunities.

  16. A fundamental role for context in instrumental learning and extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouton, Mark E; Todd, Travis P

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this article is to review recent research that has investigated the effects of context change on instrumental (operant) learning. The first part of the article discusses instrumental extinction, in which the strength of a reinforced instrumental behavior declines when reinforcers are withdrawn. The results suggest that extinction of either simple or discriminated operant behavior is relatively specific to the context in which it is learned: As in prior studies of Pavlovian extinction, ABA, ABC, and AAB renewal effects can all be observed. Further analysis supports the idea that the organism learns to refrain from making a specific response in a specific context, or in more formal terms, an inhibitory context-response association. The second part of the article then discusses research suggesting that the context also controls instrumental behavior before it is extinguished. Several experiments demonstrate that a context switch after either simple or discriminated operant training causes a decrement in the strength of the response. Over a range of conditions, the animal appears to learn a direct association between the context and the response. Under some conditions, it can also learn a hierarchical representation of context and the response-reinforcer relation. Extinction is still more context-specific than conditioning, as indicated by ABC and AAB renewal. Overall, the results establish that the context can play a significant role in both the acquisition and extinction of operant behavior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Changes in expression of c-Fos protein following cocaine-cue extinction learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nic Dhonnchadha, B Á; Lovascio, B F; Shrestha, N; Lin, A; Leite-Morris, K A; Man, H Y; Kaplan, G B; Kantak, K M

    2012-09-01

    Extinguishing abnormally strengthened learned responses to cues associated with drugs of abuse remains a key tactic for alleviating addiction. To assist in developing pharmacotherapies to augment exposure therapy for relapse prevention, investigation into neurobiological underpinnings of drug-cue extinction learning is needed. We used regional analyses of c-Fos and GluR2 protein expression to delineate neural activity and plasticity that may be associated with cocaine-cue extinction learning. Rats were trained to self-administer cocaine paired with a light cue, and later underwent a single 2h extinction session for which cocaine was withheld but response-contingent cues were presented (cocaine-cue extinction). Control groups consisted of rats yoked to animals self-administering cocaine and receiving saline non-contingently followed by an extinction session, or rats trained to self-administer cocaine followed by a no-extinction session for which levers were retracted, and cocaine and cues were withheld. Among 11 brain sites examined, extinction training increased c-Fos expression in basolateral amygdala and prelimbic prefrontal cortex of cocaine-cue extinguished rats relative to both control conditions. In dorsal subiculum and infralimbic prefrontal cortex, extinction training increased c-Fos expression in both cocaine-cue and saline-cue extinguished rats relative to the no-extinction control condition. GluR2 protein expression was not altered in any site examined after extinction or control training. Findings suggest that basolateral amygdala and prelimbic prefrontal cortex neurons are activated during acquisition of cocaine-cue extinction learning, a process that is independent of changes in GluR2 abundance. Other sites are implicated in processing the significance of cues that are present early in extinction training. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Direct numerical simulations of non-premixed ethylene-air flames: Local flame extinction criterion

    KAUST Repository

    Lecoustre, Vivien R.

    2014-11-01

    Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) of ethylene/air diffusion flame extinctions in decaying two-dimensional turbulence were performed. A Damköhler-number-based flame extinction criterion as provided by classical large activation energy asymptotic (AEA) theory is assessed for its validity in predicting flame extinction and compared to one based on Chemical Explosive Mode Analysis (CEMA) of the detailed chemistry. The DNS code solves compressible flow conservation equations using high order finite difference and explicit time integration schemes. The ethylene/air chemistry is simulated with a reduced mechanism that is generated based on the directed relation graph (DRG) based methods along with stiffness removal. The numerical configuration is an ethylene fuel strip embedded in ambient air and exposed to a prescribed decaying turbulent flow field. The emphasis of this study is on the several flame extinction events observed in contrived parametric simulations. A modified viscosity and changing pressure (MVCP) scheme was adopted in order to artificially manipulate the probability of flame extinction. Using MVCP, pressure was changed from the baseline case of 1 atm to 0.1 and 10 atm. In the high pressure MVCP case, the simulated flame is extinction-free, whereas in the low pressure MVCP case, the simulated flame features frequent extinction events and is close to global extinction. Results show that, despite its relative simplicity and provided that the global flame activation temperature is correctly calibrated, the AEA-based flame extinction criterion can accurately predict the simulated flame extinction events. It is also found that the AEA-based criterion provides predictions of flame extinction that are consistent with those provided by a CEMA-based criterion. This study supports the validity of a simple Damköhler-number-based criterion to predict flame extinction in engineering-level CFD models. © 2014 The Combustion Institute.

  19. A general model of distant hybridization reveals the conditions for extinction in Atlantic salmon and brown trout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilodrán, Claudio S; Currat, Mathias; Montoya-Burgos, Juan I

    2014-01-01

    Interspecific hybridization is common in nature but can be increased in frequency or even originated by human actions, such as species introduction or habitat modification, which may threaten species persistence. When hybridization occurs between distantly related species, referred to as "distant hybridization," the resulting hybrids are generally infertile or fertile but do not undergo chromosomal recombination during gametogenesis. Here, we present a model describing this frequent but poorly studied interspecific hybridization to assess its consequences on parental species and to anticipate the conditions under which they can reach extinction. Our general model fully incorporates three important processes: density-dependent competition, dominance/recessivity inheritance of traits and assortative mating. We demonstrate its use and flexibility by assessing population extinction risk between Atlantic salmon and brown trout in Norway, whose interbreeding has recently increased due to farmed fish releases into the wild. We identified the set of conditions under which hybridization may threaten salmonid species. Thanks to the flexibility of our model, we evaluated the effect of an additional risk factor, a parasitic disease, and showed that the cumulative effects dramatically increase the extinction risk. The consequences of distant hybridization are not genetically, but demographically mediated. Our general model is useful to better comprehend the evolution of such hybrid systems and we demonstrated its importance in the field of conservation biology to set up management recommendations when this increasingly frequent type of hybridization is in action.

  20. Translation of associative learning models into extinction reminders delivered via mobile phones during cue exposure interventions for substance use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, M Zachary; Kutlu, Munir G

    2014-09-01

    Despite experimental findings and some treatment research supporting the use of cues as a means to induce and extinguish cravings, interventions using cue exposure have not been well integrated into contemporary substance abuse treatments. A primary problem with exposure-based interventions for addiction is that after learning not to use substances in the presence of addiction cues inside the clinic (i.e., extinction), stimuli in the naturalistic setting outside the clinic may continue to elicit craving, drug use, or other maladaptive conditioned responses. For exposure-based substance use interventions to be efficacious, new approaches are needed that can prevent relapse by directly generalizing learning from the therapeutic setting into naturalistic settings associated with a high risk for relapse. Basic research suggests that extinction reminders (ERs) can be paired with the context of learning new and more adaptive conditioned responses to substance abuse cues in exposure therapies for addiction. Using mobile phones and automated dialing and data collection software, ERs can be delivered in everyday high-risk settings to inhibit conditioned responses to substance-use-related stimuli. In this review, we describe how associative learning mechanisms (e.g., conditioned inhibition) can inform how ERs are conceptualized, learned, and implemented to prevent substance use when delivered via mobile phones. This approach, exposure with portable reminders of extinction, is introduced as an adjunctive intervention that uses brief automated ERs between clinic visits when individuals are in high-risk settings for drug use.

  1. A General Model of Distant Hybridization Reveals the Conditions for Extinction in Atlantic Salmon and Brown Trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilodrán, Claudio S.; Currat, Mathias; Montoya-Burgos, Juan I.

    2014-01-01

    Interspecific hybridization is common in nature but can be increased in frequency or even originated by human actions, such as species introduction or habitat modification, which may threaten species persistence. When hybridization occurs between distantly related species, referred to as “distant hybridization,” the resulting hybrids are generally infertile or fertile but do not undergo chromosomal recombination during gametogenesis. Here, we present a model describing this frequent but poorly studied interspecific hybridization to assess its consequences on parental species and to anticipate the conditions under which they can reach extinction. Our general model fully incorporates three important processes: density-dependent competition, dominance/recessivity inheritance of traits and assortative mating. We demonstrate its use and flexibility by assessing population extinction risk between Atlantic salmon and brown trout in Norway, whose interbreeding has recently increased due to farmed fish releases into the wild. We identified the set of conditions under which hybridization may threaten salmonid species. Thanks to the flexibility of our model, we evaluated the effect of an additional risk factor, a parasitic disease, and showed that the cumulative effects dramatically increase the extinction risk. The consequences of distant hybridization are not genetically, but demographically mediated. Our general model is useful to better comprehend the evolution of such hybrid systems and we demonstrated its importance in the field of conservation biology to set up management recommendations when this increasingly frequent type of hybridization is in action. PMID:25003336

  2. A general model of distant hybridization reveals the conditions for extinction in Atlantic salmon and brown trout.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio S Quilodrán

    Full Text Available Interspecific hybridization is common in nature but can be increased in frequency or even originated by human actions, such as species introduction or habitat modification, which may threaten species persistence. When hybridization occurs between distantly related species, referred to as "distant hybridization," the resulting hybrids are generally infertile or fertile but do not undergo chromosomal recombination during gametogenesis. Here, we present a model describing this frequent but poorly studied interspecific hybridization to assess its consequences on parental species and to anticipate the conditions under which they can reach extinction. Our general model fully incorporates three important processes: density-dependent competition, dominance/recessivity inheritance of traits and assortative mating. We demonstrate its use and flexibility by assessing population extinction risk between Atlantic salmon and brown trout in Norway, whose interbreeding has recently increased due to farmed fish releases into the wild. We identified the set of conditions under which hybridization may threaten salmonid species. Thanks to the flexibility of our model, we evaluated the effect of an additional risk factor, a parasitic disease, and showed that the cumulative effects dramatically increase the extinction risk. The consequences of distant hybridization are not genetically, but demographically mediated. Our general model is useful to better comprehend the evolution of such hybrid systems and we demonstrated its importance in the field of conservation biology to set up management recommendations when this increasingly frequent type of hybridization is in action.

  3. Binge drinking among adolescents: prevalence, risk practices and related variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golpe, Sandra; Isorna, Manuel; Barreiro, Carmen; Braña, Teresa; Rial, Antonio

    2017-09-29

    According to the last Survey on Drug Use among Secondary School Students (ESTUDES 2014-2015), consumption levels of alcohol and other substances have decreased in the last years in Spain. However, available data on binge drinking remain worrying, given the negative consequences related with this pattern. The aim of this paper is to analyse binge drinking among adolescents, providing updated data on prevalence in addition to information about the consequences and some predictive factors of binge drinking. A correlational method was used for this purpose, comprised of administering a survey to Compulsory Secondary School, High School and Vocational Training students. Based on a sample of 3,419 Galician adolescents aged between 12 and 18 years (M = 14.57; SD = 1.76), the results show that binge drinking is a common and global practice, with few socio-demographic differences but related with a wide range of risk practices. Furthermore, variables such as consumption expectancies, consumption by family and friends, as well as curfew time and allowance money have been identified as interesting predictive factors that should be taken into account at the preventive level.

  4. Biodiversity, extinctions, and evolution of ecosystems with shared resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Vladimir; Vakulenko, Sergey; Wennergren, Uno

    2017-03-01

    We investigate the formation of stable ecological networks where many species share the same resource. We show that such a stable ecosystem naturally occurs as a result of extinctions. We obtain an analytical relation for the number of coexisting species, and we find a relation describing how many species that may become extinct as a result of a sharp environmental change. We introduce a special parameter that is a combination of species traits and resource characteristics used in the model formulation. This parameter describes the pressure on the system to converge, by extinctions. When that stress parameter is large, we obtain that the species traits are concentrated at certain values. This stress parameter is thereby a parameter that determines the level of final biodiversity of the system. Moreover, we show that the dynamics of this limit system can be described by simple differential equations.

  5. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  6. Events per variable for risk differences and relative risks using pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan Nygaard; Andersen, Per Kragh; Parner, Erik Thorlund

    2014-01-01

    A method based on pseudo-observations has been proposed for direct regression modeling of functionals of interest with right-censored data, including the survival function, the restricted mean and the cumulative incidence function in competing risks. The models, once the pseudo-observations have...... been computed, can be fitted using standard generalized estimating equation software. Regression models can however yield problematic results if the number of covariates is large in relation to the number of events observed. Guidelines of events per variable are often used in practice. These rules...

  7. On accounting difficulties: Risks related to nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plot, Emmanuelle; Vidal, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of three accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping

  8. On accounting difficulties: risks related to nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plot, E.; Vidal, O.

    2014-01-01

    An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of 3 accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping. (authors)

  9. Relative risk models of lung cancer in uranium miners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomasek, L [National Radiation Protection Institute, Prague (Czech Republic); Placek, V [Inst. for Expertises and Emergencies, Pribram-Kamenna (Czech Republic)

    1996-12-31

    The study population of the S cohort (studies of underground miners of uranium and other substances as the source of information on long term effects of exposure to radon and its progeny) involve uranium miners, that started underground work at the Jachymov and Horni Slavkov mines in the period 1978-1959, and had worked at least for four years. A total 4320 men satisfied these criteria. During the decade up to 1990, follow-up of the cohort mainly relied on the national population registry. In order to improve the follow-u, a series of additional checks were conducted: in the files of the Czech and Slovak Pensions Offices, by local enquires, and by direct correspondence. These additional efforts resulted in an increase of more than 10% in the numbers of known men to have died or emigrated. An exceptional feature of the S study is the large number of measurements of radon concentrations made in each mine-shaft (mean number per year and shaft was 223 in the period 1949-1960). Each man`s annual exposures to radon progeny in terms of working levels were estimated combining measurement data with men`s employment details. The excess relative risk models were used in the form RR = c(1 + ERR(w,x)), where ERR is excess relative risk, w and x denote exposure history and modifying variable, and c is an intercept term that allows the mortality rate for `unexposed` cohort to differ from that in the general population. The increased mortality (O/E=1.58; where O is observed and E is expected cases among collected death cases in the cohort) in the cohort, generally, somewhat lower ratios than one reflect the non-industrial character of the region, with the exception of lung cancer in man. The differences in the O/E ratios for lung cancer among the separate communities indicate that even in the situation of generally lower mortality, the dependence of lung cancer mortality on radon exposure cannot be excluded. 3 tabs., 6 refs.

  10. Extinction Coefficient of Gold Nanostars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Puig, Helena; Tam, Justina O; Yen, Chun-Wan; Gehrke, Lee; Hamad-Schifferli, Kimberly

    2015-07-30

    Gold nanostars (NStars) are highly attractive for biological applications due to their surface chemistry, facile synthesis and optical properties. Here, we synthesize NStars in HEPES buffer at different HEPES/Au ratios, producing NStars of different sizes and shapes, and therefore varying optical properties. We measure the extinction coefficient of the synthesized NStars at their maximum surface plasmon resonances (SPR), which range from 5.7 × 10 8 to 26.8 × 10 8 M -1 cm -1 . Measured values correlate with those obtained from theoretical models of the NStars using the discrete dipole approximation (DDA), which we use to simulate the extinction spectra of the nanostars. Finally, because NStars are typically used in biological applications, we conjugate DNA and antibodies to the NStars and calculate the footprint of the bound biomolecules.

  11. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy in a 14-year follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buch, Helena; Vinding, Troels; la Cour, Morten

    2005-01-01

    To examine the association between potential risk factors and the 14-year incidence of age-related maculopathy (ARM).......To examine the association between potential risk factors and the 14-year incidence of age-related maculopathy (ARM)....

  12. Three Studies Point to Same Risk Gene for Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... point to same risk gene for age-related macular degeneration NIH-funded research helps unravel the biology of ... rare, but powerful risk factor for age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a common cause of vision loss in ...

  13. [Extinction and Reconsolidation of Memory].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuzina, A B; Balaban, P M

    2015-01-01

    Retrieval of memory followed by reconsolidation can strengthen a memory, while retrieval followed by extinction results in a decrease of memory performance due to weakening of existing memory or formation of a competing memory. In our study we analyzed the behavior and responses of identified neurons involved in the network underlying aversive learning in terrestrial snail Helix, and made an attempt to describe the conditions in which the retrieval of memory leads either to extinction or reconsolidation. In the network underlying the withdrawal behavior, sensory neurons, premotor interneurons, motor neurons, and modulatory for this network serotonergic neurons are identified and recordings from representatives of these groups were made before and after aversive learning. In the network underlying feeding behavior, the premotor modulatory serotonergic interneurons and motor neurons involved in motor program of feeding are identified. Analysis of changes in neural activity after aversive learning showed that modulatory neurons of feeding behavior do not demonstrate any changes (sometimes a decrease of responses to food was observed), while responses to food in withdrawal behavior premotor interneurons changed qualitatively, from under threshold EPSPs to spike discharges. Using a specific for serotonergic neurons neurotoxin 5,7-DiHT it was shown previously that the serotonergic system is necessary for the aversive learning, but is not necessary for maintenance and retrieval of this memory. These results suggest that the serotonergic neurons that are necessary as part of a reinforcement for developing the associative changes in the network may be not necessary for the retrieval of memory. The hypothesis presented in this review concerns the activity of the "reinforcement" serotonergic neurons that is suggested to be the gate condition for the choice between extinction/reconsolidation triggered by memory retrieval: if these serotonergic neurons do not respond during the

  14. Extinction Coefficient of Gold Nanostars

    OpenAIRE

    de Puig, Helena; Tam, Justina O.; Yen, Chun-Wan; Gehrke, Lee; Hamad-Schifferli, Kimberly

    2015-01-01

    Gold nanostars (NStars) are highly attractive for biological applications due to their surface chemistry, facile synthesis and optical properties. Here, we synthesize NStars in HEPES buffer at different HEPES/Au ratios, producing NStars of different sizes and shapes, and therefore varying optical properties. We measure the extinction coefficient of the synthesized NStars at their maximum surface plasmon resonances (SPR), which range from 5.7 × 108 to 26.8 × 108 M−1cm−1. Measured values correl...

  15. The fossil record of evolution: Analysis of extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raup, D. M.

    1986-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that events in space have had direct effects on Earth history and on the history of life on Earth. Nowhere is this more evident than in mass extinction. The biosphere has undergone repeated devastation caused by relatively short-lived environmental stress, with species kill rates up to 80 and 95%. For five of the mass extinctions, geochemical or other evidence was reported suggesting large body impact as the cause of the environmental stress producing the extinctions. It was argued on statistical ground that the major extinction events are uniformly periodic in geological time. If it is true that large body impact is a principal cause of mass extinctions and if the periodicity is real, than a cosmic driving mechanism is inescapable. Paleontological data sets were developed which detail the ranges in geological time of about 4,000 families and 25,000 genera of fossil marine organisms. Analyses to date have concentrated on the most recent 250 million years. Associated with these studies are analyses of other aspects of Earth history which may have signatures indicative of extraterrestrial effects.

  16. About some aspects of weather related risks in Spanish Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, J. M.; Tarquis, A. M.; Grau, J. B.; Saa, A.; Diaz, M. C.

    2009-04-01

    aggressive floods in 1500-1800 era, and actual added trends of "climate change" are towards higher temperatures, less water and higher perturbations. These long term risks are rather poorly predictable and will be handled mostly by improvements in agriculture and also by social and economic adaptations, but at shorter delays and specific areas active policies are possible and exist. An agribusiness can set his production plans lowering his global risk. Sometimes it might use prudently some financial instruments, such as "orange juice futures". When using decision making models, some utility functions may consider that severe losses have higher effects than good profits, letting ranges for business margins for insurers to be limited by concurrence at correct levels. Correct availability of credits is necessary for bad periods, and also state policies for rare bad situations, concerning agribusiness survival and also alimentary safety. Insurance products are effective aids for a growing variety of well definite natural risks, such as in cases of hailstorm, that have probabilities of occurrence measurable from previous events data, and a variety of adequate professional models are continuously made for them. Related to Universidad Politecnica de Madrid the CEIGRAM institute has started recently and is involved in agricultural insurance, being connected with insurers through ENESA and AGROMUTUA. That world is active, important, evolving, and is regulated by diverse laws.

  17. Individual variation in working memory is associated with fear extinction performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stout, Daniel M; Acheson, Dean T; Moore, Tyler M; Gur, Ruben C; Baker, Dewleen G; Geyer, Mark A; Risbrough, Victoria B

    2018-03-01

    PTSD has been associated consistently with abnormalities in fear acquisition and extinction learning and retention. Fear acquisition refers to learning to discriminate between threat and safety cues. Extinction learning reflects the formation of a new inhibitory-memory that competes with a previously learned threat-related memory. Adjudicating the competition between threat memory and the new inhibitory memory during extinction may rely, in part, on cognitive processes such as working memory (WM). Despite significant shared neural circuits and signaling pathways the relationship between WM, fear acquisition, and extinction is poorly understood. Here, we analyzed data from a large sample of healthy Marines who underwent an assessment battery including tests of fear acquisition, extinction learning, and WM (N-back). Fear potentiated startle (FPS), fear expectancy ratings, and self-reported anxiety served as the primary dependent variables. High WM ability (N = 192) was associated with greater CS + fear inhibition during the late block of extinction and greater US expectancy change during extinction learning compared to individuals with low WM ability (N = 204). WM ability was not associated with magnitude of fear conditioning/expression. Attention ability was unrelated to fear acquisition or extinction supporting specificity of WM associations with extinction. These results support the conclusion that individual differences in WM may contribute to regulating fear responses. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. EXTINCTION LAWS TOWARD STELLAR SOURCES WITHIN A DUSTY CIRCUMSTELLAR MEDIUM AND IMPLICATIONS FOR TYPE IA SUPERNOVAE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nagao, Takashi; Maeda, Keiichi [Department of Astronomy, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa-Oiwake-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan); Nozawa, Takaya, E-mail: nagao@kusastro.kyoto-u.ac.jp [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 2-21-1, Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan)

    2016-06-01

    Many astronomical objects are surrounded by dusty environments. In such dusty objects, multiple scattering processes of photons by circumstellar (CS) dust grains can effectively alter extinction properties. In this paper, we systematically investigate the effects of multiple scattering on extinction laws for steady-emission sources surrounded by the dusty CS medium using a radiation transfer simulation based on the Monte Carlo technique. In particular, we focus on whether and how the extinction properties are affected by properties of CS dust grains by adopting various dust grain models. We confirm that behaviors of the (effective) extinction laws are highly dependent on the properties of CS grains, especially the total-to-selective extinction ratio R{sub V}, which characterizes the extinction law and can be either increased or decreased and compared with the case without multiple scattering. We find that the criterion for this behavior is given by a ratio of albedos in the B and V bands. We also find that either small silicate grains or polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are necessary for realizing a low value of R{sub V} as often measured toward SNe Ia if the multiple scattering by CS dust is responsible for their non-standard extinction laws. Using the derived relations between the properties of dust grains and the resulting effective extinction laws, we propose that the extinction laws toward dusty objects could be used to constrain the properties of dust grains in CS environments.

  19. EXTINCTION LAWS TOWARD STELLAR SOURCES WITHIN A DUSTY CIRCUMSTELLAR MEDIUM AND IMPLICATIONS FOR TYPE IA SUPERNOVAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagao, Takashi; Maeda, Keiichi; Nozawa, Takaya

    2016-01-01

    Many astronomical objects are surrounded by dusty environments. In such dusty objects, multiple scattering processes of photons by circumstellar (CS) dust grains can effectively alter extinction properties. In this paper, we systematically investigate the effects of multiple scattering on extinction laws for steady-emission sources surrounded by the dusty CS medium using a radiation transfer simulation based on the Monte Carlo technique. In particular, we focus on whether and how the extinction properties are affected by properties of CS dust grains by adopting various dust grain models. We confirm that behaviors of the (effective) extinction laws are highly dependent on the properties of CS grains, especially the total-to-selective extinction ratio R V , which characterizes the extinction law and can be either increased or decreased and compared with the case without multiple scattering. We find that the criterion for this behavior is given by a ratio of albedos in the B and V bands. We also find that either small silicate grains or polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are necessary for realizing a low value of R V as often measured toward SNe Ia if the multiple scattering by CS dust is responsible for their non-standard extinction laws. Using the derived relations between the properties of dust grains and the resulting effective extinction laws, we propose that the extinction laws toward dusty objects could be used to constrain the properties of dust grains in CS environments.

  20. Involvement of CRFR1 in the Basolateral Amygdala in the Immediate Fear Extinction Deficit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollis, Fiona; Sevelinges, Yannick; Grosse, Jocelyn; Zanoletti, Olivia; Sandi, Carmen

    2016-01-01

    Several animal and clinical studies have highlighted the ineffectiveness of fear extinction sessions delivered shortly after trauma exposure. This phenomenon, termed the immediate extinction deficit, refers to situations in which extinction programs applied shortly after fear conditioning may result in the reduction of fear behaviors (in rodents, frequently measured as freezing responses to the conditioned cue) during extinction training, but failure to consolidate this reduction in the long term. The molecular mechanisms driving this immediate extinction resistance remain unclear. Here we present evidence for the involvement of the corticotropin releasing factor (CRF) system in the basolateral amygdala (BLA) in male Wistar rats. Intra-BLA microinfusion of the CRFR 1 antagonist NBI30775 enhances extinction recall, whereas administration of the CRF agonist CRF 6-33 before delayed extinction disrupts recall of extinction. We link the immediate fear extinction deficit with dephosphorylation of GluA1 glutamate receptors at Ser 845 and enhanced activity of the protein phosphatase calcineurin in the BLA. Their reversal after treatment with the CRFR 1 antagonist indicates their dependence on CRFR 1 actions. These findings can have important implications for the improvement of therapeutic approaches to trauma, as well as furthering our understanding of the neurobiological mechanisms underlying fear-related disorders.

  1. Testing for variation in taxonomic extinction probabilities: a suggested methodology and some results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conroy, M.J.; Nichols, J.D.

    1984-01-01

    Several important questions in evolutionary biology and paleobiology involve sources of variation in extinction rates. In all cases of which we are aware, extinction rates have been estimated from data in which the probability that an observation (e.g., a fossil taxon) will occur is related both to extinction rates and to what we term encounter probabilities. Any statistical method for analyzing fossil data should at a minimum permit separate inferences on these two components. We develop a method for estimating taxonomic extinction rates from stratigraphic range data and for testing hypotheses about variability in these rates. We use this method to estimate extinction rates and to test the hypothesis of constant extinction rates for several sets of stratigraphic range data. The results of our tests support the hypothesis that extinction rates varied over the geologic time periods examined. We also present a test that can be used to identify periods of high or low extinction probabilities and provide an example using Phanerozoic invertebrate data. Extinction rates should be analyzed using stochastic models, in which it is recognized that stratigraphic samples are random varlates and that sampling is imperfect

  2. Perception of radiation related risks among three population groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihai, L.T.; Milu, C.; Voicu, B.; Enachescu, D.

    2003-01-01

    A questionnaire survey was conducted among three groups that mainly differ in socioeconomic status and professional exposure to ionizing radiations. Seventy-seven (26.3%) of the respondents were professionally exposed to radiation, 35 (11.9%) were medical doctors without professional exposure and 177 (68.4%) belonged to the general population group. The level of anxiety toward radiation, expressed as a concernedness index, is significantly lower in people who are professionally exposed to radiation compared to medical doctors and general population (0.81±0.94, 1.42±1.21 and 1.72±1.34 respectively, p < 0.001). In a similar manner, concernedness index values varied with the education status, with lowest values among medical university graduates and highest among public school graduates (p < 0.001). Both university-graduated groups significantly differ from the non-university groups (p < 0.05). Knowledge about radiation and knowledge about emergency plans in nuclear accident/incident were also checked in relation with concernedness, the results confirming the hypothesis that better knowledge associates lower concernedness. The extent to which people accept the civil utilization of nuclear power is also related to concernedness and knowledge, significant associations having been found. The results suggest that a political decision in radiation matter requires a valid analysis of the public's understanding and acceptance. For that reason, it is important that radiological protection authorities develop new plans and materials for communicating with people, in order to improve knowledge upon ionizing radiation, irradiation risks and safety of nuclear energy application for civil purposes. (author)

  3. Risks and safety aspects related to PET/MR examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brix, Gunnar; Nekolla, Elke A.; Nosske, Dietmar; Griebel, Juergen

    2009-01-01

    The introduction of positron emission tomography (PET)/magnetic resonance (MR) systems into medical practice in the foreseeable future may not only lead to a gain in clinical diagnosis compared to PET/computed tomography (CT) imaging due to the superior soft-tissue contrast of the MR technology but can also substantially reduce exposure of patients to ionizing radiation. On the other hand, there are also risks and health effects associated with the use of diagnostic MR devices that have to be considered carefully. This review article summarizes biophysical and biological aspects, which are of relevance for the assessment of health effects related to the exposure of patients to both ionizing radiation in PET and magnetic and electromagnetic fields in MR. On this basis, some considerations concerning the justification and optimization of PET/MR examinations are presented - as far as this is possible at this very early stage. Current safety standards do not take into account synergistic effects of ionizing radiation and magnetic and electromagnetic fields. In the light of the developing PET/MR technology, there is an urgent need to investigate this aspect in more detail for exposure levels that will occur at PET/MR systems. (orig.)

  4. Concept analysis of risk in relation to coronary heart disease among Filipino-Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalusung-Angosta, Alona

    2010-01-01

    To analyze the concept of risk in relation to coronary heart disease (CHD) among Filipino-Americans (FAs) and provide a new definition of risk. Published literature. This concept analysis provided a new meaning of risk in relation to CHD among FAs and shed light on further understanding of risk. Risk has been laced with negativity in health care, but based on the current literature, risk can be conceptualized in a positive perspective, especially in the area of chronic health disease such as CHD. However, further research is needed in the conceptualization of risk related to CHD for consistency, adequacy, and meaning. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    1975-10-01

    'Risk of damage' and 'exposure risk' are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the 'exposure risk' on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Basing upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high 'exposure risk'. As a consequence the following recommendations are given for discussion: (a) occupationally exposed persons with small 'exposure risk' should be monitored using only a long-term dosimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence dosimeter), (b) in the case of internal exposure the surface and, if necessary, air contamination should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed. (author)

  6. Pharmacological evidence that a failure to recruit NMDA receptors contributes to impaired fear extinction retention in adolescent rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Kathryn D; Richardson, Rick

    2017-09-01

    Adolescents, both humans and rodents, exhibit a marked impairment in extinction of fear relative to younger and older groups which could be caused by a failure to efficiently recruit NMDA receptors (NMDARs) in adolescence. It is well-established that systemic administration of NMDAR antagonists (e.g., MK801) before extinction training impairs the retention of extinction in adult and juvenile rodents, but it is unknown whether this is also the case for adolescents. Therefore, in the present study we investigated the effect of pharmacologically manipulating the NMDAR on extinction retention in adolescent rats. When extinction retention is typically impaired (i.e., after one session of extinction training) adolescent male rats given d-cycloserine (a partial NMDAR agonist) showed enhanced extinction retention relative to saline-treated animals while animals given MK801 (a non-competitive antagonist) did not exhibit any further impairment of extinction retention relative to the controls. In a further two experiments we demonstrated that when two sessions of extinction training separated by either 4 or 24h intervals were given to adolescent rats, saline-treated animals exhibited good extinction retention and the animals given MK801 before the second session exhibited impaired extinction retention. These findings suggest that extinction in adolescence does not initially involve NMDARs and this is a likely mechanism that contributes to the impaired fear inhibition observed at this age. However, NMDARs appear to be recruited with extended extinction training or after administration of a partial agonist, both of which lead to effective extinction retention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Extinction correction and synchrotron radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suortti, P.

    1983-01-01

    The primary extinction factor ysub(p) is defined as the ratio of the integrated reflection from a coherently diffracting domain to the integrated kinematical reflection from the same domain. When ysub(p) is larger than 0.5 it may be approximated by ysub(p)= exp[-(αdelta) 2 ], where α is about 0.5 and delta the average size of the coherent domain when measured in units of the extinction length Λ, delta = D/Λ. Transfer equations are applied to symmetrical Laue diffraction, and the reflectivity per unit length, sigma(epsilon) is solved from the measured reflecting ratio as a function of the rocking angle epsilon = theta -thetasub(B). Measurements with conventional x-ray sources are made on single crystal slabs of Be and Si using AgKβ, MoKα 1 and CuKα radiation. The primary extinction factor ysub(p)(epsilon) is solved from a point-by-point comparison of two measurements where the extinction length Λ is changed by varying the polarization and/or wavelength of the x-ray beam. The results show that primary and secondary extinction are strongly correlated, and that the customary assumption of independent size and orientation distributions of crystal mosaics is unjustified. The structure factors for Be and Si show close agreement with other recent measurements and calculations. The limitations of the method are discussed in length, particularly the effects of beam divergences and incoherence of the rays in the crystal. It is concluded that under typical experimental conditions the requirements of the theory are met. Practical limitations arising from the use of characteristic wavelengths and unpolarized radiation prohibit the use of the full potential of the method. The properties of a synchrotron radiation source are compared with a conventional x-ray source, and it is demonstrated that the experimental limitations can be removed by the use of synchrotron radiation. A diffraction experiment with synchrotron radiation is outlined, as well as generalization of the

  8. Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

    1988-08-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented

  9. Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

    1988-08-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented.

  10. THE MEMORY SYSTEM ENGAGED DURING ACQUISITION DETERMINES THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DIFFERENT EXTINCTION PROTOCOLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarid eGoodman

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Previous research indicates that extinction of rodent maze behavior may occur without explicit performance of the previously required response. In latent extinction, confining an animal to a previously rewarded goal location without reinforcement is typically sufficient to produce extinction of maze learning. However, previous studies have not determined whether latent extinction may be successfully employed to extinguish all types of memory acquired in the maze, or whether only specific types of memory may be vulnerable to latent extinction. The present study examined whether latent extinction may be effective across two plus-maze tasks that depend on anatomically distinct neural systems. Adult male Long-Evans rats were trained in a hippocampus-dependent place learning task (experiment 1, in which animals were trained to approach a consistent spatial location for food reward. A separate group of rats were trained in a dorsolateral striatum-dependent response learning task (experiment 2, in which animals were trained to make a consistent egocentric body-turn response for food reward. Following training, animals received response extinction or latent extinction. For response extinction, animals were given the opportunity to execute the original running approach response toward the empty food cup. For latent extinction, animals were confined to the original goal locations with the empty food cup, thus preventing them from making the original running approach response. Results indicate that, relative to no extinction, latent extinction was effective at extinguishing memory in the place learning task, but remained ineffective in the response learning task. In contrast, typical response extinction remained very effective at extinguishing memory in both place and response learning tasks. The present findings confirm that extinction of maze learning may occur with or without overt performance of the previously acquired response, but that the

  11. Adaptive radiation of multituberculate mammals before the extinction of dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Gregory P; Evans, Alistair R; Corfe, Ian J; Smits, Peter D; Fortelius, Mikael; Jernvall, Jukka

    2012-03-14

    The Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction approximately 66 million years ago is conventionally thought to have been a turning point in mammalian evolution. Prior to that event and for the first two-thirds of their evolutionary history, mammals were mostly confined to roles as generalized, small-bodied, nocturnal insectivores, presumably under selection pressures from dinosaurs. Release from these pressures, by extinction of non-avian dinosaurs at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, triggered ecological diversification of mammals. Although recent individual fossil discoveries have shown that some mammalian lineages diversified ecologically during the Mesozoic era, comprehensive ecological analyses of mammalian groups crossing the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary are lacking. Such analyses are needed because diversification analyses of living taxa allow only indirect inferences of past ecosystems. Here we show that in arguably the most evolutionarily successful clade of Mesozoic mammals, the Multituberculata, an adaptive radiation began at least 20 million years before the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs and continued across the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. Disparity in dental complexity, which relates to the range of diets, rose sharply in step with generic richness and disparity in body size. Moreover, maximum dental complexity and body size demonstrate an adaptive shift towards increased herbivory. This dietary expansion tracked the ecological rise of angiosperms and suggests that the resources that were available to multituberculates were relatively unaffected by the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction. Taken together, our results indicate that mammals were able to take advantage of new ecological opportunities in the Mesozoic and that at least some of these opportunities persisted through the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction. Similar broad-scale ecomorphological inventories of other radiations may help to constrain the possible causes of mass extinctions.

  12. Reactor siting risk comparisons related to recommendations of NUREG-0625

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barsell, A.W.; Dombek, F.S.; Orvis, D.D.

    1980-11-01

    This document evaluates how implementing the remote siting recommendations for nuclear reactors (NUREG-0625) made by the Siting Policy Task Force of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) can reduce potential public risk. The document analyzes how population density affects site-specific risk for both light water reactors (LWRs) and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors

  13. RELATIVE PROLIFERATION RISKS FOR NUCLEAR FUEL LEASING ARRANGEMENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CHENG, L.Y.; YUE, M.; BARI, R.A.

    2007-01-01

    The present study demonstrates a probabilistic approach to quantify the proliferation risks of fuel leasing and recycling. A Markov model approach is applied to evaluate the probability of proliferation success by diversion or theft. Proliferation risk is calculated as a product of the probability of success and the corresponding consequences

  14. Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In-Fun Li

    2016-09-01

    Conclusion: Elderly Taiwanese inpatients with existing intrinsic conditions of cancer, vertigo, and lower leg weakness were at high risk of falling, resulting in severe injuries. Additional research including controlled trials is necessary to further identify treatable, causal intrinsic risk factors for this elderly group.

  15. The ethics of reviving long extinct species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandler, Ronald

    2014-04-01

    There now appears to be a plausible pathway for reviving species that have been extinct for several decades, centuries, or even millennia. I conducted an ethical analysis of de-extinction of long extinct species. I assessed several possible ethical considerations in favor of pursuing de-extinction: that it is a matter of justice; that it would reestablish lost value; that it would create new value; and that society needs it as a conservation last resort. I also assessed several possible ethical arguments against pursuing de-extinction: that it is unnatural; that it could cause animal suffering; that it could be ecologically problematic or detrimental to human health; and that it is hubristic. There are reasons in favor of reviving long extinct species, and it can be ethically acceptable to do so. However, the reasons in favor of pursuing de-extinction do not have to do with its usefulness in species conservation; rather, they concern the status of revived species as scientific and technological achievements, and it would be ethically problematic to promote de-extinction as a significant conservation strategy, because it does not prevent species extinctions, does not address the causes of extinction, and could be detrimental to some species conservation efforts. Moreover, humanity does not have a responsibility or obligation to pursue de-extinction of long extinct species, and reviving them does not address any urgent problem. Therefore, legitimate ecological, political, animal welfare, legal, or human health concerns associated with a de-extinction (and reintroduction) must be thoroughly addressed for it to be ethically acceptable. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Enhancing dopaminergic signaling and histone acetylation promotes long-term rescue of deficient fear extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittle, N; Maurer, V; Murphy, C; Rainer, J; Bindreither, D; Hauschild, M; Scharinger, A; Oberhauser, M; Keil, T; Brehm, C; Valovka, T; Striessnig, J; Singewald, N

    2016-01-01

    Extinction-based exposure therapy is used to treat anxiety- and trauma-related disorders; however, there is the need to improve its limited efficacy in individuals with impaired fear extinction learning and to promote greater protection against return-of-fear phenomena. Here, using 129S1/SvImJ mice, which display impaired fear extinction acquisition and extinction consolidation, we revealed that persistent and context-independent rescue of deficient fear extinction in these mice was associated with enhanced expression of dopamine-related genes, such as dopamine D1 (Drd1a) and -D2 (Drd2) receptor genes in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and amygdala, but not hippocampus. Moreover, enhanced histone acetylation was observed in the promoter of the extinction-regulated Drd2 gene in the mPFC, revealing a potential gene-regulatory mechanism. Although enhancing histone acetylation, via administering the histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor MS-275, does not induce fear reduction during extinction training, it promoted enduring and context-independent rescue of deficient fear extinction consolidation/retrieval once extinction learning was initiated as shown following a mild conditioning protocol. This was associated with enhanced histone acetylation in neurons of the mPFC and amygdala. Finally, as a proof-of-principle, mimicking enhanced dopaminergic signaling by L-dopa treatment rescued deficient fear extinction and co-administration of MS-275 rendered this effect enduring and context-independent. In summary, current data reveal that combining dopaminergic and epigenetic mechanisms is a promising strategy to improve exposure-based behavior therapy in extinction-impaired individuals by initiating the formation of an enduring and context-independent fear-inhibitory memory. PMID:27922638

  17. Sensation seeking related to varied definition of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dastol, O.U.; Drottz-Sjoberg, B.M.

    1998-01-01

    This pilot study is based on the assumption that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. It has been shown in previous risk perception studies that some people report their definition or normal use of the concept of risk as e.g. mainly probability, a combination of probability and consequences, mainly consequences, or due to the nature of the event (Drottz-Sjoeberg, 1991). Another field of research has developed measures for personality traits, i.e. facets of Sensation Seeking; Disinhibition, Thrill and Adventure Seeking, Experience Seeking, and Boredom Susceptibility (Zuckerman, 1994). The design of the present study involved three independent groups of first year psychology students (N=93). They were presented with one of three response formats regarding their normal use of the word risk, i.e. an open-ended format, separate ratings of four items suggesting a definition of risk on five-point scales, and one single five-point scale with the extremes labelled probability and consequences, and with their combination as the scale mid-point. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was 'danger', but among the responses were also 'chance', and 'outcome'. Another finding was that people who defined risk as 'outcome' and 'chance', using the open-ended format tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale than those who defined risk as 'danger'. In addition, subjects who defined risk as the 'combination' of probability and consequences, using other response formats, also tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS), especially as compared to those defining risk as the 'probability' of an event. (authors)

  18. Gender differences in the relations between work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors and musculoskeletal complaints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooftman, W.E.; Poppel, M.N.M. van; Beek, A.J. van der; Bongers, P.M.; Mechelen, W. van

    2004-01-01

    Gender differences in the prevalence of musculoskeletal complaints might be explained by differences in the effect of exposure to work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors. A systematic review was conducted to examine gender differences in the relations between these risk factors and

  19. Risk of placental abruption in relation to migraines and headaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ananth Cande V

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Migraine, a common chronic-intermittent disorder of idiopathic origin characterized by severe debilitating headaches and autonomic nervous system dysfunction, and placental abruption, the premature separation of the placenta, share many common pathophysiological characteristics. Moreover, endothelial dysfunction, platelet activation, hypercoagulation, and inflammation are common to both disorders. We assessed risk of placental abruption in relation to maternal history of migraine before and during pregnancy in Peruvian women. Methods Cases were 375 women with pregnancies complicated by placental abruption, and controls were 368 women without an abruption. During in-person interviews conducted following delivery, women were asked if they had physician-diagnosed migraine, and they were asked questions that allowed headaches and migraine to be classified according to criteria established by the International Headache Society. Logistic regression procedures were used to calculate odds ratios (aOR and 95% confidence intervals (CI adjusted for confounders. Results Overall, a lifetime history of any headaches or migraine was associated with an increased odds of placental abruption (aOR = 1.60; 95% CI 1.16-2.20. A lifetime history of migraine was associated with a 2.14-fold increased odds of placental abruption (aOR = 2.14; 95% CI 1.22-3.75. The odds of placental abruption was 2.11 (95% CI 1.00-4.45 for migraineurs without aura; and 1.59 (95% 0.70-3.62 for migraineurs with aura. A lifetime history of tension-type headache was also increased with placental abruption (aOR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.01-2.57. Conclusions This study adds placental abruption to a growing list of pregnancy complications associated with maternal headache/migraine disorders. Nevertheless, prospective cohort studies are needed to more rigorously evaluate the extent to which migraines and/or its treatments are associated with the occurrence of placental abruption.

  20. School-related risk factors for drunkenness among adolescents: risk factors differ between socio-economic groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anette; Holstein, Bjørn E; Due, Pernille

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: To examine, separately for boys and girls, whether socio-economic differences in drunkenness exist in adolescence, whether the level of exposure to school-related risk factors differ between socio-economic groups, and whether the relative contribution of school-related risk factors......) was measured by parental occupation. RESULTS: Among girls, exposures to school-related risk factors were more prevalent in lower socio-economic groups. Poor school satisfaction was associated with drunkenness among girls from high SEP, odds ratio (OR) = 2.98 (0.73-12.16). Among boys from high SEP autonomy...

  1. Prefrontal single-unit firing associated with deficient extinction in mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, Paul J; Whittle, Nigel; Flynn, Shaun M; Graybeal, Carolyn; Pinard, Courtney; Gunduz-Cinar, Ozge; Kravitz, Alexxai; Singewald, Nicolas; Holmes, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The neural circuitry mediating fear extinction has been increasingly well studied and delineated. The rodent infralimbic subregion (IL) of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) has been found to promote extinction, whereas the prelimbic cortex (PL) demonstrates an opposing, pro-fear, function. Studies employing in vivo electrophysiological recordings have observed that while increased IL single-unit firing and bursting predicts robust extinction retrieval, increased PL firing can correlate with sustained fear and poor extinction. These relationships between single-unit firing and extinction do not hold under all experimental conditions, however. In the current study, we further investigated the relationship between vmPFC and PL single-unit firing and extinction using inbred mouse models of intact (C57BL/6J, B6) and deficient (129S1/SvImJ, S1) extinction strains. Simultaneous single-unit recordings were made in the PL and vmPFC (encompassing IL) as B6 and S1 mice performed extinction training and retrieval. Impaired extinction retrieval in S1 mice was associated with elevated PL single-unit firing, as compared to firing in extinguishing B6 mice, consistent with the hypothesized pro-fear contribution of PL. Analysis of local field potentials also revealed significantly higher gamma power in the PL of Sthan B6 mice during extinction training and retrieval. In the vmPFC, impaired extinction in S1 mice was also associated with exaggerated single-unit firing, relative to B6 mice. This is in apparent contradiction to evidence that IL activity promotes extinction, but could reflect a (failed) compensatory effort by the vmPFC to mitigate fear-promoting activity in other regions, such as the PL or amygdala. In support of this hypothesis, augmenting IL activity via direct infusion of the GABAA receptor antagonist picrotoxin rescued impaired extinction retrieval in S1 mice. Chronic fluoxetine treatment produced modest reductions in fear during extinction retrieval and

  2. The perception of risks related to electricity generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Midden, C J; Daamen, D D; Verplanken, B

    1987-01-01

    Some of the key findings are discussed of psychological research on the perception of risks and attitudes with respect to the use of uranium and coal for electricity generation. It appears that attitudes are mostly not based on ideology but rather determined by a trade-off of expected risks and advantages. Lay estimates of probabilities are compared with expert judgements. In the last section attitudes of people living near existing or planned power plants are analyzed. Serious doubts are raised about the possibilities to give residents economic compensation for exposure to risks. 1 fig., 29 refs.

  3. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

  4. When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Bergerot

    Full Text Available Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known.And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales.In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

  5. When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergerot, Benjamin; Hugueny, Bernard; Belliard, Jérôme

    2013-01-01

    Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known. And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales. In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

  6. Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuussaari, Mikko; Bommarco, Riccardo; Heikkinen, Risto K; Helm, Aveliina; Krauss, Jochen; Lindborg, Regina; Ockinger, Erik; Pärtel, Meelis; Pino, Joan; Rodà, Ferran; Stefanescu, Constantí; Teder, Tiit; Zobel, Martin; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf

    2009-10-01

    Local extinction of species can occur with a substantial delay following habitat loss or degradation. Accumulating evidence suggests that such extinction debts pose a significant but often unrecognized challenge for biodiversity conservation across a wide range of taxa and ecosystems. Species with long generation times and populations near their extinction threshold are most likely to have an extinction debt. However, as long as a species that is predicted to become extinct still persists, there is time for conservation measures such as habitat restoration and landscape management. Standardized long-term monitoring, more high-quality empirical studies on different taxa and ecosystems and further development of analytical methods will help to better quantify extinction debt and protect biodiversity.

  7. Temporal specificity of extinction in autoshaping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, Michael R; Yang, Cynthia; Ohyama, Tatsuya; Balsam, Peter D

    2004-07-01

    Three experiments investigated the effects of varying the conditioned stimulus (CS) duration between training and extinction. Ring doves (Streptopelia risoria) were autoshaped on a fixed CS-unconditioned stimulus (US) interval and extinguished with CS presentations that were longer, shorter, or the same as the training duration. During a subsequent test session, the training CS duration was reintroduced. Results suggest that the cessation of responding during an extinction session is controlled by generalization of excitation between the training and extinction CSs and by the number of nonreinforced CS presentations. Transfer of extinction to the training CS is controlled by the similarity between the extinction and training CSs. Extinction learning is temporally specific. (c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved

  8. Open-field exposure facilitates consummatory extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justel, Nadia; Psyrdellis, Mariana; Pautassi, Ricardo M

    2016-12-07

    During extinction, the organism learns that a conditioned stimulus or a conditioned response is no longer associated with an unconditioned stimulus, and as a consequence, a decrement in the response is presented. The exposure to novel situations (e.g. exploration of a novel open field) has been used widely to modulate (i.e. either enhance or deteriorate) learning and memory. The aim of the present study was to test whether open-field exposure could modulate consummatory extinction. The results indicated that open-field exposure accelerated the extinction response (i.e. experimental animals provided novelty exposure had lower consummatory behavior than control animals) when applied before - but not after - the first extinction trial, or when applied before the second extinction trial. The results suggest that environmental treatments such as novelty exposure provide a valuable, nonpharmacological alternative to potentially modulate extinction processes.

  9. The risk of cataract in relation to metal arc welding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slagor, Rebekka Michaelsen; Dornonville de la Cour, Morten; Bonde, Jens Peter

    2016-01-01

    .95–1.21] and the adjusted HR was 1.08 (95% CI 0.95–1.22). Age and diabetes were as expected strong risk factors. Conclusion: We found no increased risk of developing cataract among Danish metal welders who worked with arc welding from 1950–1985. This may be attributed to the effectiveness of personal safety equipment....... increases the risk of cataract. Method: We compared the risk of being diagnosed with cataract from 1987–2012 in a historic cohort of 4288 male metal arc welders against a reference group comprised of Danish skilled and unskilled male workers with similar age distribution. For the welders’ cohort...... adjusted for baseline data regarding age, diabetes, and social group. Results: There were 266 welders and 29 007 referents with a diagnosis and/or operation for cataract. The unadjusted HR for cataract comparing ever-welders with referents was 1.07 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0...

  10. Relation between Childhood Obesity and Adult Cardiovascular Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren M. Allcock

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The incidence of overweight and obesity is rising at an alarming pace in the pediatric population, just as in the adult population. The adult comorbidities associated with this risk factor are well-recognized and are being further elucidated continually. Additionally, we are gradually developing a better understanding of the risks of overweight and obesity among children while they are still young. However, there is now a growing body of evidence showing that childhood obesity not only leads all too frequently to adult obesity, but is in itself a risk factor for cardiometabolic syndrome and resultant cardiovascular risk in adulthood. If current trends continue, the problem of pediatric overweight and obesity will become of unmanageable proportions once these individuals reach adulthood. Future research efforts toward understanding this complex problem will need to focus on those overweight and obese children who later went on to change their metabolic course and become normal-weight adults.

  11. Sexual selection protects against extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumley, Alyson J; Michalczyk, Łukasz; Kitson, James J N; Spurgin, Lewis G; Morrison, Catriona A; Godwin, Joanne L; Dickinson, Matthew E; Martin, Oliver Y; Emerson, Brent C; Chapman, Tracey; Gage, Matthew J G

    2015-06-25

    Reproduction through sex carries substantial costs, mainly because only half of sexual adults produce offspring. It has been theorized that these costs could be countered if sex allows sexual selection to clear the universal fitness constraint of mutation load. Under sexual selection, competition between (usually) males and mate choice by (usually) females create important intraspecific filters for reproductive success, so that only a subset of males gains paternity. If reproductive success under sexual selection is dependent on individual condition, which is contingent to mutation load, then sexually selected filtering through 'genic capture' could offset the costs of sex because it provides genetic benefits to populations. Here we test this theory experimentally by comparing whether populations with histories of strong versus weak sexual selection purge mutation load and resist extinction differently. After evolving replicate populations of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum for 6 to 7 years under conditions that differed solely in the strengths of sexual selection, we revealed mutation load using inbreeding. Lineages from populations that had previously experienced strong sexual selection were resilient to extinction and maintained fitness under inbreeding, with some families continuing to survive after 20 generations of sib × sib mating. By contrast, lineages derived from populations that experienced weak or non-existent sexual selection showed rapid fitness declines under inbreeding, and all were extinct after generation 10. Multiple mutations across the genome with individually small effects can be difficult to clear, yet sum to a significant fitness load; our findings reveal that sexual selection reduces this load, improving population viability in the face of genetic stress.

  12. Anisotropic extinction distortion of the galaxy correlation function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang Wenjuan; Hui Lam; Menard, Brice; May, Morgan; Scranton, Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Similar to the magnification of the galaxies' fluxes by gravitational lensing, the extinction of the fluxes by comic dust, whose existence is recently detected by [B. Menard, R. Scranton, M. Fukugita, and G. Richards, Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 405, 1025 (2010).], also modifies the distribution of a flux-selected galaxy sample. We study the anisotropic distortion by dust extinction to the 3D galaxy correlation function, including magnification bias and redshift distortion at the same time. We find the extinction distortion is most significant along the line of sight and at large separations, similar to that by magnification bias. The correction from dust extinction is negative except at sufficiently large transverse separations, which is almost always opposite to that from magnification bias (we consider a number count slope s>0.4). Hence, the distortions from these two effects tend to reduce each other. At low z (< or approx. 1), the distortion by extinction is stronger than that by magnification bias, but at high z, the reverse holds. We also study how dust extinction affects probes in real space of the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and the linear redshift distortion parameter β. We find its effect on BAO is negligible. However, it introduces a positive scale-dependent correction to β that can be as large as a few percent. At the same time, we also find a negative scale-dependent correction from magnification bias, which is up to percent level at low z, but to ∼40% at high z. These corrections are non-negligible for precision cosmology, and should be considered when testing General Relativity through the scale-dependence of β.

  13. Comment on the extinct paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, D.M.

    1983-11-01

    The extinction paradox is a contradiction between geometrical optics results which predict that at high frequencies the scattering cross section of an object should equal its geometrical cross section and rigorous scattering theory which shows that at high frequencies the scattering cross section approaches twice the geometrical cross section of the object. Confusion about the reason for this paradox persists today even though the nature of the paradox was correctly identified many years ago by Brillouin. The resolution of the paradox is restated and illustrated with an example, and then the implications to the interpretation of scattering cross sections are identified

  14. Presidential address: distinction or extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pressman, Barry D

    2008-10-01

    Despite its continuing scientific successes in imaging, radiology as a specialty is faced with a very difficult and competitive environment. Nonradiologists are more and more interested in vertically integrating imaging into their practices, while teleradiology and picture archiving and communication systems are resulting in the greater isolation of radiologists. Commoditization is a realistic and devastating threat to the survival and professionalism of the specialty. To remain viable as a specialty, radiologists must elevate their practice by subspecializing, becoming more involved with clinical care, and actively interacting with patients and referring clinicians. Distinction will prevent extinction.

  15. Methylphenidate enhances extinction of contextual fear

    OpenAIRE

    Abraham, Antony D.; Cunningham, Christopher L.; Lattal, K. Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Methylphenidate (MPH, Ritalin) is a norepinephrine and dopamine transporter blocker that is widely used in humans for treatment of attention deficit disorder and narcolepsy. Although there is some evidence that targeted microinjections of MPH may enhance fear acquisition, little is known about the effect of MPH on fear extinction. Here, we show that MPH, administered before or immediately following extinction of contextual fear, will enhance extinction retention in C57BL/6 mice. Animals that ...

  16. Are Humans too Numerous to Become Extinct?

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2009-01-01

    Some claim that humans are too numerous to become extinct. However, passenger pigeon, once the most numerous birds on the planet, are now extinct. For years, humankind has been damaging its habitat, discharging toxic chemicals into the environment, and having harmful effects on agricultural productivity due to climate change. Humankind s extinction depends on the continuation of various human activities including economic growth, addiction to fossil fuel, over consumption, overpopulation, oc...

  17. Open-path, closed-path and reconstructed aerosol extinction at a rural site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Timothy D; Prenni, Anthony J; Renfro, James R; McClure, Ethan; Hicks, Bill; Onasch, Timothy B; Freedman, Andrew; McMeeking, Gavin R; Chen, Ping

    2018-04-09

    The Handix Scientific Open-Path Cavity Ringdown Spectrometer (OPCRDS) was deployed during summer 2016 in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM). Extinction coefficients from the relatively new OPCRDS and from a more well-established extinction instrument agreed to within 7%. Aerosol hygroscopic growth (f(RH)) was calculated from the ratio of ambient extinction measured by the OPCRDS to dry extinction measured by a closed-path extinction monitor (Aerodyne's Cavity Attenuated Phase Shift Particulate Matter Extinction Monitor, CAPS PMex). Derived hygroscopicity (RH 1995 at the same site and time of year, which is noteworthy given the decreasing trend for organics and sulfate in the eastern U.S. However, maximum f(RH) values in 1995 were less than half as large as those recorded in 2016-possibly due to nephelometer truncation losses in 1995. Two hygroscopicity parameterizations were investigated using high time resolution OPCRDS+CAPS PMex data, and the K ext model was more accurate than the γ model. Data from the two ambient optical instruments, the OPCRDS and the open-path nephelometer, generally agreed; however, significant discrepancies between ambient scattering and extinction were observed, apparently driven by a combination of hygroscopic growth effects, which tend to increase nephelometer truncation losses and decrease sensitivity to the wavelength difference between the two instruments as a function of particle size. There was not a statistically significant difference in the mean reconstructed extinction values obtained from the original and the revised IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) equations. On average IMPROVE reconstructed extinction was ~25% lower than extinction measured by the OPCRDS, which suggests that the IMPROVE equations and 24-hr aerosol data are moderately successful in estimating current haze levels at GRSM. However, this conclusion is limited by the coarse temporal resolution and the low dynamic range of

  18. Extent of Cropland and Related Soil Erosion Risk in Rwanda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Land conversion to cropland is one of the major causes of severe soil erosion in Africa. This study assesses the current cropland extent and the related soil erosion risk in Rwanda, a country that experienced the most rapid population growth and cropland expansion in Africa over the last decade. The land cover land use (LCLU map of Rwanda in 2015 was developed using Landsat-8 imagery. Based on the obtained LCLU map and the spatial datasets of precipitation, soil properties and elevation, the soil erosion rate of Rwanda was assessed at 30-m spatial resolution, using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE model. According to the results, the mean soil erosion rate was 250 t·ha−1·a−1 over the entire country, with a total soil loss rate of approximately 595 million tons per year. The mean soil erosion rate over cropland, which occupied 56% of the national land area, was estimated at 421 t·ha−1·a−1 and was responsible for about 95% of the national soil loss. About 24% of the croplands in Rwanda had a soil erosion rate larger than 300 t·ha−1·a−1, indicating their unsuitability for cultivation. With a mean soil erosion rate of 1642 t·ha−1·a−1, these unsuitable croplands were responsible for 90% of the national soil loss. Most of the unsuitable croplands are distributed in the Congo Nile Ridge, Volcanic Range mountain areas in the west and the Buberuka highlands in the north, regions characterized by steep slopes (>30% and strong rainfall. Soil conservation practices, such as the terracing cultivation method, are paramount to preserve the soil. According to our assessment, terracing alone could reduce the mean cropland soil erosion rate and the national soil loss by 79% and 75%, respectively. After terracing, only a small proportion of 7.6% of the current croplands would still be exposed to extreme soil erosion with a rate >300 t·ha−1·a−1. These irremediable cropland areas should be returned to mountain forest to

  19. An allometric approach to quantify the extinction vulnerability of birds and mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbers, J P; Schipper, A M; Hendriks, A J; Verones, F; Pereira, H M; Huijbregts, M A J

    2016-03-01

    Methods to quantify the vulnerability of species to extinction are typically limited by the availability of species-specific input data pertaining to life-history characteristics and population dynamics. This lack of data hampers global biodiversity assessments and conservation planning. Here, we developed a new framework that systematically quantifies extinction risk based on allometric relationships between various wildlife demographic parameters and body size. These allometric relationships have a solid theoretical and ecological foundation. Extinction risk indicators included are (1) the probability of extinction, (2) the mean time to extinction, and (3) the critical patch size. We applied our framework to assess the global extinction vulnerability of terrestrial carnivorous and non-carnivorous birds and mammals. Irrespective of the indicator used, large-bodied species were found to be more vulnerable to extinction than their smaller counterparts. The patterns with body size were confirmed for all species groups by a comparison with IUCN data on the proportion of extant threatened species: the models correctly predicted a multimodal distribution with body size for carnivorous birds and a monotonic distribution for mammals and non-carnivorous birds. Carnivorous mammals were found to have higher extinction risks than non-carnivores, while birds were more prone to extinction than mammals. These results are explained by the allometric relationships, predicting the vulnerable species groups to have lower intrinsic population growth rates, smaller population sizes, lower carrying capacities, or larger dispersal distances, which, in turn, increase the importance of losses due to environmental stochastic effects and dispersal activities. Our study is the first to integrate population viability analysis and allometry into a novel, process-based framework that is able to quantify extinction risk of a large number of species without requiring data-intensive, species

  20. Interstellar extinction in the Large Magellanic Cloud

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nandy, K.; Morgan, D.H.; Willis, A.J.; Wilson, R.; Gondhalekar, P.M.; Houziaux, L.

    1980-01-01

    Recent UV observations together with complementary visible data of several reddened and comparison stars of similar spectral types in the Large Magellanic Cloud have been used to study the interstellar extinction in that galaxy. Most of the reddened stars studied here are located within 2 0 of 30 Doradus and show remarkably high extinction in the far UV, suggesting a large abundance of small particles. From the optical wavelength to 2,600 A the normalised extinction curves of the LMC stars are similar to the mean galactic extinction law. (author)

  1. Mass extinctions vs. uniformitarianism in biological evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bak, P.; Paczuski, M.

    1995-12-31

    It is usually believed that Darwin`s theory leads to a smooth gradual evolution, so that mass extinctions must be caused by external shocks. However, it has recently been argued that mass extinctions arise from the intrinsic dynamics of Darwinian evolution. Species become extinct when swept by intermittent avalanches propagating through the global ecology. These ideas are made concrete through studies of simple mathematical models of co-evolving species. The models exhibit self-organized criticality and describe some general features of the extinction pattern in the fossil record.

  2. Acute inescapable stress alleviates fear extinction recall deficits caused by serotonin transporter abolishment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, Pieter; Henckens, Marloes J A G; Lopresto, Dora; Kozicz, Tamas; Homberg, Judith R

    2018-07-02

    Life stress increases risk for developing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and more prominently so in short-allele carriers of the serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR). Serotonin transporter knockout (5-HTT -/- ) rats show compromised extinction (recall) of conditioned fear, which might mediate the increased risk for PTSD and reduce the therapeutic efficacy of exposure therapy. Here, we assessed whether acute inescapable stress (IS) differentially affects fear extinction and extinction recall in 5-HTT -/- rats and wildtype controls. Surprisingly, IS experience improved fear extinction recall in 5-HTT -/- rats to the level of wildtype animals, while wildtypes were unaffected by this IS. Thus, whereas 5-HTT -/- rats evidently were more responsive to the stressor, the behavioral consequences presented themselves as adaptive. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. A prospective study of gait related risk factors for exercise-related lower leg pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, T M; De Clercq, D; Delbaere, K; Vanderstraeten, G; De Cock, A; Witvrouw, E

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine prospectively gait related risk factors for exercise-related lower leg pain (ERLLP) in 400 physical education students. Static lower leg alignment was determined, and 3D gait kinematics combined with plantar pressure profiles were collected. After this evaluation, all sports injuries were registered by the same sports physician during the duration of the study. Forty six subjects developed ERLLP and 29 of them developed bilateral symptoms thus giving 75 symptomatic lower legs. Bilateral lower legs of 167 subjects who developed no injuries in the lower extremities served as controls. Cox regression analysis revealed that subjects who developed ERLLP had an altered running pattern before the injury compared to the controls and included (1) a significantly more central heel-strike, (2) a significantly increased pronation, accompanied with more pressure underneath the medial side of the foot, and (3) a significantly more lateral roll-off. These findings suggest that altered biomechanics play a role in the genesis of ERLLP and thus should be considered in prevention and rehabilitation.

  4. Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsabadze, Teimuraz

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

  5. Fear extinction deficits following acute stress associate with increased spine density and dendritic retraction in basolateral amygdala neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroun, Mouna; Ioannides, Pericles J; Bergman, Krista L; Kavushansky, Alexandra; Holmes, Andrew; Wellman, Cara L

    2013-08-01

    Stress-sensitive psychopathologies such as post-traumatic stress disorder are characterized by deficits in fear extinction and dysfunction of corticolimbic circuits mediating extinction. Chronic stress facilitates fear conditioning, impairs extinction, and produces dendritic proliferation in the basolateral amygdala (BLA), a critical site of plasticity for extinction. Acute stress impairs extinction, alters plasticity in the medial prefrontal cortex-to-BLA circuit, and causes dendritic retraction in the medial prefrontal cortex. Here, we examined extinction learning and basolateral amygdala pyramidal neuron morphology in adult male rats following a single elevated platform stress. Acute stress impaired extinction acquisition and memory, and produced dendritic retraction and increased mushroom spine density in basolateral amygdala neurons in the right hemisphere. Unexpectedly, irrespective of stress, rats that underwent fear and extinction testing showed basolateral amygdala dendritic retraction and altered spine density relative to non-conditioned rats, particularly in the left hemisphere. Thus, extinction deficits produced by acute stress are associated with increased spine density and dendritic retraction in basolateral amygdala pyramidal neurons. Furthermore, the finding that conditioning and extinction as such was sufficient to alter basolateral amygdala morphology and spine density illustrates the sensitivity of basolateral amygdala morphology to behavioral manipulation. These findings may have implications for elucidating the role of the amygdala in the pathophysiology of stress-related disorders. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  6. Fear extinction deficits following acute stress associate with increased spine density and dendritic retraction in basolateral amygdala neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroun, Mouna; Ioannides, Pericles J.; Bergman, Krista L.; Kavushansky, Alexandra; Holmes, Andrew; Wellman, Cara L.

    2013-01-01

    Stress-sensitive psychopathologies such as post-traumatic stress disorder are characterized by deficits in fear extinction and dysfunction of corticolimbic circuits mediating extinction. Chronic stress facilitates fear conditioning, impairs extinction, and produces dendritic proliferation in the basolateral amygdala (BLA), a critical site of plasticity for extinction. Acute stress impairs extinction, alters plasticity in the medial prefrontal cortex-to-BLA circuit, and causes dendritic retraction in the medial prefrontal cortex. Here, we examined extinction learning and basolateral amygdala pyramidal neuron morphology in adult male rats following a single elevated platform stress. Acute stress impaired extinction acquisition and memory, and produced dendritic retraction and increased mushroom spine density in basolateral amygdala neurons in the right hemisphere. Unexpectedly, irrespective of stress, rats that underwent fear and extinction testing showed basolateral amygdala dendritic retraction and altered spine density relative to non-conditioned rats, particularly in the left hemisphere. Thus, extinction deficits produced by acute stress are associated with increased spine density and dendritic retraction in basolateral amygdala pyramidal neurons. Furthermore, the finding that conditioning and extinction as such was sufficient to alter basolateral amygdala morphology and spine density illustrates the sensitivity of basolateral amygdala morphology to behavioral manipulation. These findings may have implications for elucidating the role of the amygdala in the pathophysiology of stress-related disorders. PMID:23714419

  7. Optical-NIR dust extinction towards Galactic O stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maíz Apellániz, J.; Barbá, R. H.

    2018-05-01

    Context. O stars are excellent tracers of the intervening ISM because of their high luminosity, blue intrinsic SED, and relatively featureless spectra. We are currently conducting the Galactic O-Star Spectroscopic Survey (GOSSS), which is generating a large sample of O stars with accurate spectral types within several kpc of the Sun. Aims: We aim to obtain a global picture of the properties of dust extinction in the solar neighborhood based on optical-NIR photometry of O stars with accurate spectral types. Methods: We have processed a carefully selected photometric set with the CHORIZOS code to measure the amount [E(4405 - 5495)] and type [R5495] of extinction towards 562 O-type stellar systems. We have tested three different families of extinction laws and analyzed our results with the help of additional archival data. Results: The Maíz Apellániz et al. (2014, A&A, 564, A63) family of extinction laws provides a better description of Galactic dust that either the Cardelli et al. (1989, ApJ, 345, 245) or Fitzpatrick (1999, PASP, 111, 63) families, so it should be preferentially used when analysing samples similar to the one in this paper. In many cases O stars and late-type stars experience similar amounts of extinction at similar distances but some O stars are located close to the molecular clouds left over from their births and have larger extinctions than the average for nearby late-type populations. In qualitative terms, O stars experience a more diverse extinction than late-type stars, as some are affected by the small-grain-size, low-R5495 effect of molecular clouds and others by the large-grain-size, high-R5495 effect of H II regions. Late-type stars experience a narrower range of grain sizes or R5495, as their extinction is predominantly caused by the average, diffuse ISM. We propose that the reason for the existence of large-grain-size, high-R5495 regions in the ISM in the form of H II regions and hot-gas bubbles is the selective destruction of small dust

  8. Risks of multiple sclerosis in relatives of patients in Flanders, Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carton, H; Vlietinck, R; Debruyne, J; DeKeyser, J; DHooghe, MB; Loos, R; Medaer, R; Truyen, L; Yee, IML; Sadovnick, AD

    Objectives - To calculate age adjusted risks for multiple sclerosis