Sample records for relative earthquake risk

  1. Definition of a short-cut methodology for assessing earthquake-related Na-Tech risk.

    Busini, Valentina; Marzo, Enrico; Callioni, Andrea; Rota, Renato


    Na-Tech (Natural and Technological) refers to industrial accidents triggered by natural events such as storms, earthquakes, flooding, and lightning. Herein, a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). The proposed methodology, through suitable Key Hazard Indicators (KHIs), identifies the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation (i.e., a process plant located in a given territory), using the Analytical Hierarchy Process as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such KHIs. The developed methodology was validated by comparing its computational results with QRA results that involved Na-Tech events previously presented in literature.

  2. The effects of earthquake measurement concepts and magnitude anchoring on individuals' perceptions of earthquake risk

    Celsi, R.; Wolfinbarger, M.; Wald, D.


    The purpose of this research is to explore earthquake risk perceptions in California. Specifically, we examine the risk beliefs, feelings, and experiences of lay, professional, and expert individuals to explore how risk is perceived and how risk perceptions are formed relative to earthquakes. Our results indicate that individuals tend to perceptually underestimate the degree that earthquake (EQ) events may affect them. This occurs in large part because individuals' personal felt experience of EQ events are generally overestimated relative to experienced magnitudes. An important finding is that individuals engage in a process of "cognitive anchoring" of their felt EQ experience towards the reported earthquake magnitude size. The anchoring effect is moderated by the degree that individuals comprehend EQ magnitude measurement and EQ attenuation. Overall, the results of this research provide us with a deeper understanding of EQ risk perceptions, especially as they relate to individuals' understanding of EQ measurement and attenuation concepts. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  3. Perception of earthquake risk in Taiwan: effects of gender and past earthquake experience.

    Kung, Yi-Wen; Chen, Sue-Huei


    This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer-assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two-factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, "personal impact," encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, "controllability," encompassed a sense of efficacy of self-protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Scaling relation for earthquake networks

    Abe, Sumiyoshi


    The scaling relation derived by Dorogovtsev, Goltsev, Mendes and Samukhin [Phys. Rev. E, 68 (2003) 046109] states that the exponents of the power-law connectivity distribution, gamma, and the power-law eigenvalue distribution of the adjacency matrix, delta, of a locally treelike scale-free network satisfy 2*gamma - delta = 1 in the mean field approximation. Here, it is shown that this relation holds well for the reduced simple earthquake networks (without tadpole-loops and multiple edges) constructed from the seismic data taken from California and Japan. The result is interpreted from the viewpoint of the hierarchical organization of the earthquake networks.

  5. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan


    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  6. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan


    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  7. Earthquake Risk, FEMA Earthquake Hazzard Risk Map, Published in 1994, Delaware Geological Survey.

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — This Earthquake Risk dataset, was produced all or in part from Published Reports/Deeds information as of 1994. It is described as 'FEMA Earthquake Hazzard Risk Map'....

  8. Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area


    The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers, the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of "Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios." The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul, two independent approaches, one based on intensities and the second on spectral displacements, are utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.

  9. Earthquake-related versus non-earthquake-related injuries in spinal injury patients: differentiation with multidetector computed tomography


    Introduction In recent years, several massive earthquakes have occurred across the globe. Multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) is reliable in detecting spinal injuries. The purpose of this study was to compare the features of spinal injuries resulting from the Sichuan earthquake with those of non-earthquake-related spinal trauma using MDCT. Methods Features of spinal injuries of 223 Sichuan earthquake-exposed patients and 223 non-earthquake-related spinal injury patients were retrospectively compared using MDCT. The date of non-earthquake-related spinal injury patients was collected from 1 May 2009 to 22 July 2009 to avoid the confounding effects of seasonal activity and clothing. We focused on anatomic sites, injury types and neurologic deficits related to spinal injuries. Major injuries were classified according to the grid 3-3-3 scheme of the Magerl (AO) classification system. Results A total of 185 patients (82.96%) in the earthquake-exposed cohort experienced crush injuries. In the earthquake and control groups, 65 and 92 patients, respectively, had neurologic deficits. The anatomic distribution of these two cohorts was significantly different (P spinal injuries were more common in the control group (risk ratio (RR) = 2.12, P spinal injuries were more common in the earthquake-related spinal injuries group (277 of 501 injured vertebrae; 55.29%). The major types of injuries were significantly different between these cohorts (P = 0.002). Magerl AO type A lesions composed most of the lesions seen in both of these cohorts. Type B lesions were more frequently seen in earthquake-related spinal injuries (RR = 1.27), while we observed type C lesions more frequently in subjects with non-earthquake-related spinal injuries (RR = 1.98, P = 0.0029). Conclusions Spinal injuries sustained in the Sichuan earthquake were located mainly in the lumbar spine, with a peak prevalence of type A lesions and a high occurrence of neurologic deficits. The anatomic distribution and

  10. Seismicity and earthquake risk in western Sicily



    Full Text Available The seismicity and the earthquake risk in Western Sicily are here
    evaluated on the basis of the experimental data referring to the historical
    and instrumentally recorded earthquakes in this area (from 1248
    up to 1968, which have been thoroughly collected, analyzed, tested and
    normalized in order to assure the quasi-stationarity of the series of
    The approximated magnitude values — obtained by means of a compared
    analysis of the magnitude and epicentral intensity values of the
    latest events — have allowed to study the parameters of the frequency-
    magnitude relation with both the classical exponential model and
    the truncated exponential one previously proposed by the author.
    So, the basic parameters, including the maximum possible regional
    magnitude, have been estimated by means of different procedures, and
    their behaviours have been studied as functions of the threshold magnitude.

  11. Thoracic Injuries in earthquake-related versus non-earthquake-related trauma patients: differentiation via Multi-detector Computed Tomography

    Zhi-hui Dong


    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Massive earthquakes are harmful to humankind. This study of a historical cohort aimed to investigate the difference between earthquake-related crush thoracic traumas and thoracic traumas unrelated to earthquakes using a multi-detector Computed Tomography (CT. METHODS: We retrospectively compared an earthquake-exposed cohort of 215 thoracic trauma crush victims of the Sichuan earthquake to a cohort of 215 non-earthquake-related thoracic trauma patients, focusing on the lesions and coexisting injuries to the thoracic cage and the pulmonary parenchyma and pleura using a multi-detector CT. RESULTS: The incidence of rib fracture was elevated in the earthquake-exposed cohort (143 vs. 66 patients in the non-earthquake-exposed cohort, Risk Ratio (RR = 2.2; p<0.001. Among these patients, those with more than 3 fractured ribs (106/143 vs. 41/66 patients, RR=1.2; p<0.05 or flail chest (45/143 vs. 11/66 patients, RR=1.9; p<0.05 were more frequently seen in the earthquake cohort. Earthquake-related crush injuries more frequently resulted in bilateral rib fractures (66/143 vs. 18/66 patients, RR= 1.7; p<0.01. Additionally, the incidence of non-rib fracture was higher in the earthquake cohort (85 vs. 60 patients, RR= 1.4; p<0.01. Pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries were more frequently seen in earthquake-related crush injuries (117 vs. 80 patients, RR=1.5 for parenchymal and 146 vs. 74 patients, RR = 2.0 for pleural injuries; p<0.001. Non-rib fractures, pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries had significant positive correlation with rib fractures in these two cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Thoracic crush traumas resulting from the earthquake were life threatening with a high incidence of bony thoracic fractures. The ribs were frequently involved in bilateral and severe types of fractures, which were accompanied by non-rib fractures, pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries.

  12. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B


    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  13. Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment Based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: State of Gujarat, India

    Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir


    The Gujarat state of India is one of the most seismically active intercontinental regions of the world. Historically, it has experienced many damaging earthquakes including the devastating 1819 Rann of Kachchh and 2001 Bhuj earthquakes. The effect of the later one is grossly underestimated by the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP). To assess a more adequate earthquake hazard for the state of Gujarat, we apply Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relation taking into account naturally fractal distribution of earthquake loci. USLE has evident implications since any estimate of seismic hazard depends on the size of the territory considered and, therefore, may differ dramatically from the actual one when scaled down to the proportion of the area of interest (e.g. of a city) from the enveloping area of investigation. We cross-compare the seismic hazard maps compiled for the same standard regular grid 0.2° × 0.2° (1) in terms of design ground acceleration based on the neo-deterministic approach, (2) in terms of probabilistic exceedance of peak ground acceleration by GSHAP, and (3) the one resulted from the USLE application. Finally, we present the maps of seismic risks for the state of Gujarat integrating the obtained seismic hazard, population density based on India's Census 2011 data, and a few model assumptions of vulnerability.

  14. Earthquake Hazard and Risk in Alaska

    Black Porto, N.; Nyst, M.


    Alaska is one of the most seismically active and tectonically diverse regions in the United States. To examine risk, we have updated the seismic hazard model in Alaska. The current RMS Alaska hazard model is based on the 2007 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Alaska (Wesson et al., 2007; Boyd et al., 2007). The 2015 RMS model will update several key source parameters, including: extending the earthquake catalog, implementing a new set of crustal faults, updating the subduction zone geometry and reoccurrence rate. First, we extend the earthquake catalog to 2013; decluster the catalog, and compute new background rates. We then create a crustal fault model, based on the Alaska 2012 fault and fold database. This new model increased the number of crustal faults from ten in 2007, to 91 faults in the 2015 model. This includes the addition of: the western Denali, Cook Inlet folds near Anchorage, and thrust faults near Fairbanks. Previously the subduction zone was modeled at a uniform depth. In this update, we model the intraslab as a series of deep stepping events. We also use the best available data, such as Slab 1.0, to update the geometry of the subduction zone. The city of Anchorage represents 80% of the risk exposure in Alaska. In the 2007 model, the hazard in Alaska was dominated by the frequent rate of magnitude 7 to 8 events (Gutenberg-Richter distribution), and large magnitude 8+ events had a low reoccurrence rate (Characteristic) and therefore didn't contribute as highly to the overall risk. We will review these reoccurrence rates, and will present the results and impact to Anchorage. We will compare our hazard update to the 2007 USGS hazard map, and discuss the changes and drivers for these changes. Finally, we will examine the impact model changes have on Alaska earthquake risk. Consider risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the

  15. Earthquake Risk Reduction to Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Network

    Zulfikar, Can; Kariptas, Cagatay; Biyikoglu, Hikmet; Ozarpa, Cevat


    Earthquake Risk Reduction to Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Network Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867km of gas lines with 750 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. The natural gas comes to Istanbul city borders with 70bar in 30inch diameter steel pipeline. The gas pressure is reduced to 20bar in RMS stations and distributed to district regulators inside the city. 110 of 750 district regulators are instrumented with strong motion accelerometers in order to cut gas flow during an earthquake event in the case of ground motion parameters exceeds the certain threshold levels. Also, state of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the gas pipelines are detected. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 750 district regulator sites. IGDAS Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction algorithm follows 4 stages as below: 1) Real-time ground motion data transmitted from 110 IGDAS and 110 KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) acceleration stations to the IGDAS Scada Center and KOERI data center. 2) During an earthquake event EEW information is sent from IGDAS Scada Center to the IGDAS stations. 3) Automatic Shut-Off is applied at IGDAS district regulators, and calculated parameters are sent from stations to the IGDAS Scada Center and KOERI. 4) Integrated building and gas pipeline damage maps are prepared immediately after the earthquake event. The today's technology allows to rapidly estimate the

  16. Relation between the characteristics of strong earthquake activities in Chinese mainland and the Wenchuan earthquake

    Xiaodong Zhang; Guohua Yang; Xian Lu; Mingxiao Li; Zhigao Yang


    This paper studies the relations between the great Wenchuan earthquake and the active-quiet periodic characteristics of strong earthquakes, the rhythmic feature of great earthquakes, and the grouped spatial distribution of MS8.0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland. We also studied the relation between the Wenchuan earthquake and the stepwise migration characteristics of MS≥7.0 earthquakes on the North-South seismic belt, the features of the energy releasing acceleration in the active crustal blocks related to the Wenchuan earthquake and the relation between the Wenchuan earthquake and the so called second-arc fault zone. The results can be summarized as follows: ① the occurrence of the Wenchuan earthquake was consistent with the active-quiet periodic characteristics of strong earthquakes; ② its occurrence is consistent with the features of grouped occurrence of MS8.0 earthquakes and follows the 25 years rhythm (each circulation experiences the same time) of great earthquakes; ③ the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake follows the well known stepwise migration feature of strong earthquakes on the North-South seismic belt; ④ the location where the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake took place has an obvious consistency with the temporal and spatial characteristic of grouped activity of MS≥7.0 strong earthquakes on the second-arc fault zone; ⑤ the second-arc fault zone is not only the lower boundary for earthquakes with more than 30 km focal depth, but also looks like a lower boundary for deep substance movement; and ⑥ there are obvious seismic accelerations nearby the Qaidam and Qiangtang active crustal blocks (the northern and southern neighbors of the Bayan Har active block, respectively), which agrees with the GPS observation data.

  17. Earthquakes: Risk, Monitoring, Notification, and Research


    far away as Bangladesh , Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Several large aftershocks have occurred since the main seismic event. The May 12 earthquake...motion of tectonic plates; ! Earthquake geology and paleoseismology: studies of the history, effects, and mechanics of earthquakes; ! Earthquake hazards

  18. Statistical validation of earthquake related observations

    Kossobokov, V. G.


    The confirmed fractal nature of earthquakes and their distribution in space and time implies that many traditional estimations of seismic hazard (from term-less to short-term ones) are usually based on erroneous assumptions of easy tractable or, conversely, delicately-designed models. The widespread practice of deceptive modeling considered as a "reasonable proxy" of the natural seismic process leads to seismic hazard assessment of unknown quality, which errors propagate non-linearly into inflicted estimates of risk and, eventually, into unexpected societal losses of unacceptable level. The studies aimed at forecast/prediction of earthquakes must include validation in the retro- (at least) and, eventually, in prospective tests. In the absence of such control a suggested "precursor/signal" remains a "candidate", which link to target seismic event is a model assumption. Predicting in advance is the only decisive test of forecast/predictions and, therefore, the score-card of any "established precursor/signal" represented by the empirical probabilities of alarms and failures-to-predict achieved in prospective testing must prove statistical significance rejecting the null-hypothesis of random coincidental occurrence in advance target earthquakes. We reiterate suggesting so-called "Seismic Roulette" null-hypothesis as the most adequate undisturbed random alternative accounting for the empirical spatial distribution of earthquakes: (i) Consider a roulette wheel with as many sectors as the number of earthquake locations from a sample catalog representing seismic locus, a sector per each location and (ii) make your bet according to prediction (i.e., determine, which locations are inside area of alarm, and put one chip in each of the corresponding sectors); (iii) Nature turns the wheel; (iv) accumulate statistics of wins and losses along with the number of chips spent. If a precursor in charge of prediction exposes an imperfection of Seismic Roulette then, having in mind


    Savaş TOPAL


    Full Text Available Earthquake-induced deformation structures which are called seismites may helpful to clasify the paleoseismic history of a location and to estimate the magnitudes of the potention earthquakes in the future. In this paper, seismites were investigated according to the types formed in deep and shallow lake sediments. Seismites are observed forms of sand dikes, introduced and fractured gravels and pillow structures in shallow lakes and pseudonodules, mushroom-like silts protruding laminites, mixed layers, disturbed varved lamination and loop bedding in deep lake sediments. Earthquake-induced deformation structures, by benefiting from previous studies, were ordered according to their formations and earthquake magnitudes. In this order, the lowest eartquake's record is loop bedding and the highest one is introduced and fractured gravels in lacustrine deposits.

  20. Decision making biases in the communication of earthquake risk

    Welsh, M. B.; Steacy, S.; Begg, S. H.; Navarro, D. J.


    L'Aquila, with 6 scientists convicted of manslaughter, shocked the scientific community, leading to urgent re-appraisal of communication methods for low-probability, high-impact events. Before the trial, a commission investigating the earthquake recommended risk assessment be formalised via operational earthquake forecasts and that social scientists be enlisted to assist in developing communication strategies. Psychological research has identified numerous decision biases relevant to this, including hindsight bias, where people (after the fact) overestimate an event's predictability. This affects experts as well as naïve participants as it relates to their ability to construct a plausible causal story rather than the likelihood of the event. Another problem is availability, which causes overestimation of the likelihood of observed rare events due to their greater noteworthiness. This, however, is complicated by the 'description-experience' gap, whereby people underestimate probabilities for events they have not experienced. That is, people who have experienced strong earthquakes judge them more likely while those who have not judge them less likely - relative to actual probabilities. Finally, format changes alter people's decisions. That is people treat '1 in 10,000' as different from 0.01% despite their mathematical equivalence. Such effects fall under the broad term framing, which describes how different framings of the same event alter decisions. In particular, people's attitude to risk depends significantly on how scenarios are described. We examine the effect of biases on the communication of change in risk. South Australian participants gave responses to scenarios describing familiar (bushfire) or unfamiliar (earthquake) risks. While bushfires are rare in specific locations, significant fire events occur each year and are extensively covered. By comparison, our study location (Adelaide) last had a M5 quake in 1954. Preliminary results suggest the description


    Mustafa ULAS


    Full Text Available lot of people have died because of earthquakes every year. Therefore It is crucial to predict the time of the earthquakes reasonable time before it had happed. This paper presents recent information published in the literature about precursors of earthquakes. The relationships between earthquakes and ionosphere are targeted to guide new researches in order to study further to find novel prediction methods.

  2. Challenges to communicate risks of human-caused earthquakes

    Klose, C. D.


    The awareness of natural hazards has been up-trending in recent years. In particular, this is true for earthquakes, which increase in frequency and magnitude in regions that normally do not experience seismic activity. In fact, one of the major concerns for many communities and businesses is that humans today seem to cause earthquakes due to large-scale shale gas production, dewatering and flooding of mines and deep geothermal power production. Accordingly, without opposing any of these technologies it should be a priority of earth scientists who are researching natural hazards to communicate earthquake risks. This presentation discusses the challenges that earth scientists are facing to properly communicate earthquake risks, in light of the fact that human-caused earthquakes are an environmental change affecting only some communities and businesses. Communication channels may range from research papers, books and class room lectures to outreach events and programs, popular media events or even social media networks.

  3. Earthquakes: Risk, Detection, Warning, and Research


    and central China, and as far away as Bangladesh , Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Several large aftershocks occurred after the main seismic event...34 The number of stations necessary to generate a data-based ShakeMap depends on the urban area and geology ...Research Congressional Research Service 24 • Earthquake geology and paleoseismology: studies of the history, effects, and mechanics of earthquakes

  4. Statistical aspects and risks of human-caused earthquakes

    Klose, C. D.


    The seismological community invests ample human capital and financial resources to research and predict risks associated with earthquakes. Industries such as the insurance and re-insurance sector are equally interested in using probabilistic risk models developed by the scientific community to transfer risks. These models are used to predict expected losses due to naturally occurring earthquakes. But what about the risks associated with human-caused earthquakes? Such risk models are largely absent from both industry and academic discourse. In countries around the world, informed citizens are becoming increasingly aware and concerned that this economic bias is not sustainable for long-term economic growth, environmental and human security. Ultimately, citizens look to their government officials to hold industry accountable. In the Netherlands, for example, the hydrocarbon industry is held accountable for causing earthquakes near Groningen. In Switzerland, geothermal power plants were shut down or suspended because they caused earthquakes in canton Basel and St. Gallen. The public and the private non-extractive industry needs access to information about earthquake risks in connection with sub/urban geoengineeing activities, including natural gas production through fracking, geothermal energy production, carbon sequestration, mining and water irrigation. This presentation illuminates statistical aspects of human-caused earthquakes with respect to different geologic environments. Statistical findings are based on the first catalog of human-caused earthquakes (in Klose 2013). Findings are discussed which include the odds to die during a medium-size earthquake that is set off by geomechanical pollution. Any kind of geoengineering activity causes this type of pollution and increases the likelihood of triggering nearby faults to rupture.

  5. Earthquake and Flood Risk Assessments for Europe and Central Asia

    Murnane, R. J.; Daniell, J. E.; Ward, P.; Winsemius, H.; Tijssen, A.; Toro, J.


    We report on a flood and earthquake risk assessment for 32 countries in Europe and Central Asia with a focus on how current flood and earthquake risk might evolve in the future due to changes in climate, population, and GDP. The future hazard and exposure conditions used for the risk assessment are consistent with selected IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Estimates of 2030 and 2080 population and GDP are derived using the IMAGE model forced by the socioeconomic conditions associated with the SSPs. Flood risk is modeled using the probabilistic GLOFRIS global flood risk modeling cascade which starts with meteorological fields derived from reanalysis data or climate models. For 2030 and 2080 climate conditions, the meteorological fields are generated from five climate models forced by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Future flood risk is estimated using population and GDP exposures consistent with the SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios. Population and GDP are defined as being affected by a flood when a grid cell receives any depth of flood inundation. The earthquake hazard is quantified using a 10,000-year stochastic catalog of over 15.8 million synthetic earthquake events of at least magnitude 5. Ground motion prediction and estimates of local site conditions are used to determine PGA. Future earthquake risk is estimated using population and GDP exposures consistent with all five SSPs. Population and GDP are defined as being affected by an earthquake when a grid cell experiences ground motion equaling or exceeding MMI VI. For most countries, changes in exposure alter flood risk to a greater extent than changes in climate. For both flood and earthquake, the spread in risk grows over time. There are large uncertainties due to the methodology; however, the results are not meant to be definitive. Instead they will be used to initiate discussions with governments regarding efforts to manage disaster risk.

  6. Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk-based approach.

    Lin, Jeng-Hsiang


    Flat earthquake premiums are 'uniformly' set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk-based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.


    Temitope Egbelakin; Suzanne Wilkinson; Jason Ingham


    The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behavi...

  8. Remote sensing and earthquake risk: A (re)insurance perspective

    Smolka, Anselm; Siebert, Andreas


    The insurance sector is faced with two issues regarding earthquake risk: the estimation of rarely occurring losses from large events and the assessment of the average annual net loss. For this purpose, knowledge is needed of actual event losses, of the distribution of exposed values, and of their vulnerability to earthquakes. To what extent can remote sensing help the insurance industry fulfil these tasks, and what are its limitations? In consequence of more regular and high-resolution satellite coverage, we have seen earth observation and remote sensing methods develop over the past years to a stage where they appear to offer great potential for addressing some shortcomings of the data underlying risk assessment. These include lack of statistical representativeness and lack of topicality. Here, remote sensing can help in the following areas: • Inventories of exposed objects (pre- and post-disaster) • Projection of small-scale ground-based vulnerability classification surveys to a full inventory • Post-event loss assessment But especially from an insurance point of view, challenges remain. The strength of airborne remote sensing techniques lies in outlining heavily damaged areas where damage is caused by easily discernible structural failure, i.e. total or partial building collapse. Examples are the Haiti earthquake (with minimal insured loss) and the tsunami-stricken areas in the Tohoku district of Japan. What counts for insurers, however, is the sum of monetary losses. The Chile, the Christchurch and the Tohoku earthquakes each caused insured losses in the two-digit billion dollar range. By far the greatest proportion of these insured losses were due to non-structural damage to buildings, machinery and equipment. Even with the Tohoku event, no more than 30% of the total material damage was caused by the tsunami according to preliminary surveys, and this figure includes damage due to earthquake shock which was unrecognisable after the passage of the tsunami

  9. Brief communication "Fast-track earthquake risk assessment for selected urban areas in Turkey"

    D. Kepekci


    Full Text Available This study is presented as a contribution to earthquake disaster mitigation studies for selected cities in Turkey. The risk evaluations must be based on earthquake hazard analysis and city information. To estimate the ground motion level, data for earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 4.5 and an epicenter location within a 100-km radius of each city were used for the period from 1900 to 2006, as recorded at the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for each city was carried out using Poisson probabilistic approaches. Ground motion level was estimated as the probability of a given degree of acceleration with a 10% exceedence rate during a 50-year time period for each city. The risk level of each city was evaluated using the number of houses, the per-capita income of city residents, population, and ground motion levels. The maximum risk level obtained for the cities was taken as a reference value for relative risk assessment, and other risk values were estimated relative to the maximum risk level. When the selected cities were classified according to their relative risk levels, the five most risky cities were found to be, in descending order of risk, Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara, Bursa, and Kocaeli.

  10. Induced and Natural Seismicity: Earthquake Hazards and Risks in Ohio:

    Besana-Ostman, G. M.; Worstall, R.; Tomastik, T.; Simmers, R.


    To adapt with increasing need to regulate all operations related to both the Utica and Marcellus shale play within the state, ODNR had recently strengthen its regulatory capability through implementation of stricter permit requirements, additional human resources and improved infrastructure. These ODNR's efforts on seismic risk reduction related to induced seismicity led to stricter regulations and many infrastructure changes related particularly to Class II wells. Permit requirement changes and more seismic monitoring stations were implemented together with additional injection data reporting from selected Class II well operators. Considering the possible risks related to seismic events in a region with relatively low seismicity, correlation between limited seismic data and injection volume information were undertaken. Interestingly, initial results showed some indications of both plugging and fracturing episodes. The real-time data transmission from seismic stations and availability of injection volume data enabled ODNR to interact with operators and manage wells dynamically. Furthermore, initial geomorphic and structural analyses indicated possible active faults in the northern and western portion of the state oriented NE-SW. The newly-mapped structures imply possible relatively bigger earthquakes in the region and consequently higher seismic risks. With the above-mentioned recent changes, ODNR have made critical improvement of its principal regulatory role in the state for oil and gas operations but also an important contribution to the state's seismic risk reduction endeavors. Close collaboration with other government agencies and the public, and working together with the well operators enhanced ODNR's capability to build a safety culture and achieve further public and industry participation towards a safer environment. Keywords: Induced seismicity, injection wells, seismic risks

  11. Earthquake Risk Management Strategy Plan Using Nonparametric Estimation of Hazard Rate

    Aflaton Amiri


    Full Text Available Earthquake risk is defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability studies. The main aims of earthquake risk management are to make plans and apply those for reducing human losses and protect properties from earthquake hazards. Natural risk managers are studying to identify and manage the risk from an earthquake for highly populated urban areas. They want to put some strategic plans for this purpose. Risk managers need some input about these kinds of studies. The prediction of earthquake events such as a input for preparation of earthquake risk management strategy plans were tried to find in this study. A Bayesian approach to earthquake hazard rate estimation is studied and magnitudes of historical earthquakes is used to predict the probability of occurrence of major earthquakes.

  12. Morphometric measurement of the faults in Kerman province and its relation with earthquake magnitude in Richter scale

    Mostafa khabazi


    Full Text Available Iran is geographically one of the most prone regions to natural disasters especially earthquake in the world such that it is in the seventh place in Asia and the 13th place in the world regarding annual mean of the highest number of population at risk of earthquake. On the other hand, 32% of the area, 70% of the population, and 67% of the gross production of the country are located in regions prone to earthquake. Iran with its several faults is always prone to this terrible natural disaster and it is one of high risk regions regarding the earthquake. There is a mutual relation between fault and earthquake. It means that the number of faults in the region is effective on earthquake occurrence. On the other hand, every earthquake will cause creation of new faults. In present research, the faults in the region will be positioned using satellite images and their dimensions have been measured by GIS advanced techniques. Then, the relationship between fault length and earthquake magnitude will be studied and the amount of human and inhuman losses of earthquake have been estimated. Therefore, the potential and allometric power of a fault such as length, width, and depth of a fault has been estimated in occurrence of earthquake. Then the extension of ruptures resulted from earthquake has been determined in the area of fault and finally the region has been zoned into non-risky, low risk and high risk categories. Results show that there is a direct relationship between fault length and its magnitude in Richter scale. The longer the length of the fault, the earthquake will be more intensive. The highest frequency of earthquake associates to the west and northwest of the region under study meaning where faults are longer and denser.

  13. Seismic Risk Management of Irrigation System in an Earthquake

    Kobayashi, Akira; Hayashi, Takuma; Yamamoto, Kiyohito; Kiyama, Shoichi

    A risk analysis method of an irrigation system in an earthquake is proposed. The irrigation system consists of irrigation tanks and canals. The damage probability of the irrigation tanks and canals was obtained from both numerical simulation and actual disaster data from the Mid Niigata prefecture earthquake. The losses due to reduced crop yield, restoration and secondary disaster were considered in the risk assessment. The probability of annual peak ground acceleration was introduced from the earthquake records in Niigata prefecture. To reduce the damage probability, an enhanced foundation of canals on flat land and widening of the embankment were applied. It was found that the countermeasures for the irrigation tanks were more effective than those for the canals. In the case of a large secondary disaster of the irrigation system on flat land, the countermeasures for the irrigation system were very effective.

  14. Relate the earthquake parameters to the maximum tsunami runup

    Sharghivand, Naeimeh; Kânoǧlu, Utku


    relate earthquake parameters to the maximum runup. Further, we also present the effect of earthquake parameters on the focusing phenomena, which is introduced by Kanoglu et al. (2013). Acknowledgment: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe).


    Temitope Egbelakin


    Full Text Available The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behaviours including seismic mitigation decisions, but their application has been inadequate to enhance building owners’ protective decisions. A holistic framework that incorporates the motivational orientations of decision-making, coupled with the social, cultural, economic, regulatory, institutional and political realms of earthquake risk mitigation to enhance building owners’ decisions to voluntarily implement adequate mitigation measures, is proposed. This framework attempts to address any multi-disciplinary barriers that exist in earthquake disaster management, by ensuring that stakeholders involved in seismic mitigation decisions work together to foster seismic rehabilitation of EPBs, as well as illuminate strategies that will initiate, promote and sustain the adoption of long-term earthquake mitigation.

  16. Risk factors of suicidal ideation among adolescents after Wenchuan earthquake in China.

    Ran, Mao-Sheng; Zhang, Zhen; Fan, Mei; Li, Rong-Hui; Li, Yuan-Hao; Ou, Guo Jing; Jiang, Zhe; Tong, Yu-Zhen; Fang, Ding-Zhi


    Suicidal ideation is a common phenomenon in survivors after disaster event. To identify the change of suicidal ideation, and to test hypotheses concerning the suicidal ideation, depression and PTSD symptoms among adolescent survivors after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The suicidal ideation among high school students at 6, 12 and 18 months after the Wenchuan earthquake were investigated. Subjects included 737 student survivors in an affected high school. The PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version (PCL-C) and the Chinese Beck Depression Inventory (C-BDI) were used to measure the symptoms of PTSD and depression. The rates of suicidal ideation among the adolescent survivors at 6-, 12- and 18-month after the earthquake were 35.6%, 35.6% and 30.7% respectively. Depression symptoms in the 18-month follow-up, suicidal ideations at 6 and 12 months after the earthquake were the independent risk factors of suicidal ideation in the 18-month follow-up. Depression symptoms were the strongest predictor of suicidal ideation after earthquake. An increased rate of suicidal ideation after the earthquake may be mainly due to depression but not to PTSD symptoms. The disaster-related psychological sequelae and the risk factors of suicidal ideation, especially depression symptoms, should be considered in the mental health services and suicide prevention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimation of earthquake risk curves of physical building damage

    Raschke, Mathias; Janouschkowetz, Silke; Fischer, Thomas; Simon, Christian


    In this study, a new approach to quantify seismic risks is presented. Here, the earthquake risk curves for the number of buildings with a defined physical damage state are estimated for South Africa. Therein, we define the physical damage states according to the current European macro-seismic intensity scale (EMS-98). The advantage of such kind of risk curve is that its plausibility can be checked more easily than for other types. The earthquake risk curve for physical building damage can be compared with historical damage and their corresponding empirical return periods. The number of damaged buildings from historical events is generally explored and documented in more detail than the corresponding monetary losses. The latter are also influenced by different economic conditions, such as inflation and price hikes. Further on, the monetary risk curve can be derived from the developed risk curve of physical building damage. The earthquake risk curve can also be used for the validation of underlying sub-models such as the hazard and vulnerability modules.

  18. Initiatives to Reduce Earthquake Risk of Developing Countries

    Tucker, B. E.


    The seventeen-year-and-counting history of the Palo Alto-based nonprofit organization GeoHazards International (GHI) is the story of many initiatives within a larger initiative to increase the societal impact of geophysics and civil engineering. GHI's mission is to reduce death and suffering due to earthquakes and other natural hazards in the world's most vulnerable communities through preparedness, mitigation and advocacy. GHI works by raising awareness in these communities about their risk and about affordable methods to manage it, identifying and strengthening institutions in these communities to manage their risk, and advocating improvement in natural disaster management. Some of GHI's successful initiatives include: (1) creating an earthquake scenario for Quito, Ecuador that describes in lay terms the consequences for that city of a probable earthquake; (2) improving the curricula of Pakistani university courses about seismic retrofitting; (3) training employees of the Public Works Department of Delhi, India on assessing the seismic vulnerability of critical facilities such as a school, a hospital, a police headquarters, and city hall; (4) assessing the vulnerability of the Library of Tibetan Works and Archives in Dharamsala, India; (5) developing a seismic hazard reduction plan for a nonprofit organization in Kathmandu, Nepal that works to manage Nepal's seismic risk; and (6) assisting in the formulation of a resolution by the Council of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to promote school earthquake safety among OECD member countries. GHI's most important resource, in addition to its staff and Board of Trustees, is its members and volunteer advisors, who include some of the world's leading earth scientists, earthquake engineers, urban planners and architects, from the academic, public, private and nonprofit sectors. GHI is planning several exciting initiatives in the near future. One would oversee the design and construction of

  19. A Study To Determine The Quality Of Building Stock And Earthquake Risk In Kirsehir

    Mehmet Mustafa nal


    Full Text Available Technological developments findings and associated improvement of structural codes together with the change in the earthquake potentials and deficiencies of the old buildings necessitate the evaluation of the present building stocks. Both the Earthquake Regulations and the Seismic Zoning Map in Turkey have been going through a fast change in the recent years. Furthermore the fact that the structural damage due to the recent earthquakes did not change according to the regions which is indicative of the building stock with low structural quality. Kirsehir is one of these regions with low quality buliding stock. Kirsehir is a developing region in relation to the increase in population and number of buildings in recent years. Accordingly the heights of the buildings also increase in relation to the improving economical conditions. In contrary to the older masonry buildings of 1950s the newer buildings are manufacturing using reinforced concrete. However the lack of control mechanisms designs according to lower eqarthquake risks without considering the the soil- structure relationship also make the more recent buildings prone to earthquake damage. In this study the building stock in Kirsehir and its close surroundings constructed before 1998 was considered and grouped in relation to their floor numbers construction methods and some other properties. The performance analyses of the considered buildings were performed by taking into account the local soil conditions and construction material. Then the earthquake risks of these buildings are calculated.

  20. Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Estimation and Risk Management

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith


    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  1. Decreasing relative risk premium

    Hansen, Frank


    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...... and have decreasing relative risk premium. We finally introduce the notion of partial risk neutral preferences on binary lotteries and show that partial risk neutrality is equivalent to preferences with decreasing relative risk premium...

  2. Meeting the Challenge of Earthquake Risk Globalisation: Towards the Global Earthquake Model GEM (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

    Zschau, J.


    Earthquake risk, like natural risks in general, has become a highly dynamic and globally interdependent phenomenon. Due to the "urban explosion" in the Third World, an increasingly complex cross linking of critical infrastructure and lifelines in the industrial nations and a growing globalisation of the world's economies, we are presently facing a dramatic increase of our society's vulnerability to earthquakes in practically all seismic regions on our globe. Such fast and global changes cannot be captured with conventional earthquake risk models anymore. The sciences in this field are, therefore, asked to come up with new solutions that are no longer exclusively aiming at the best possible quantification of the present risks but also keep an eye on their changes with time and allow to project these into the future. This does not apply to the vulnerablity component of earthquake risk alone, but also to its hazard component which has been realized to be time-dependent, too. The challenges of earthquake risk dynamics and -globalisation have recently been accepted by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD - GSF) who initiated the "Global Earthquake Model (GEM)", a public-private partnership for establishing an independent standard to calculate, monitor and communicate earthquake risk globally, raise awareness and promote mitigation.

  3. Psychological Vulnerability and Earthquake Risk Perception in Bucharest/Romania

    Romeo Cretu, Zeno; Armas, Iuliana; Stanciugelu, Irina


    The importance of studying the relationship with the natural hazard events from a psycho-social perspective is fundamental by the experience with past disasters as much as by the research in the field that proved that the people's psychologic structures may constitute a starting point for risk reduction. People's psycho-behavioural patterns contain conscious or unconscious references to the environmental risk, thus creating certain adjustment strategies and mechanisms, with a certain degree of psychological vulnerability. In modern man's case, the high level of awareness in front of natural dangers, doubled by the perception of the environment's unsafety, experienced as a lack of control, brings to attention nowadays the problematic of the analysis of natural risk perception, as a main factor in the adjustment of human communities' capacity of adapting to the natural environment's dynamics. The major objective of this present work is, based on the development of an efficient evaluation methodology, to identify specific relational patterns to seismic risk in Bucharest, function the characteristics of the urban environment, the social, economical and psychological vulnerability, with results that can be applied for disaster management. For explaining human reactions and the way in which they perceive and evaluate the psychological resources, on a daily basis, but also in risk situations (earthquakes), a multi-modal questionnaire was conceived through qualitative methods (a focus group, along with experts from the Public and Administrative Sciences National School, Risk Communication Center). The questionnaire was structured on a 49 items sequence, in which were included different type of questions (with single or multiple answers, open questions etc), and also questions using different scaling methods. The items caught cognitive elements (expectations, anticipations and negative or positive judgments regarding risk element), affective (feelings) and behavioral

  4. Earthquake risk mitigation projects in central asia and india

    Hausler, E.; Petal, M.; Tobin, T.; Tucker, B.; Gupta, M.; Sharma, A.; Shaw, R.


    In the fall of 2002, GeoHazards International (GHI), a California-based nonprofit organization, launched two 3-year projects, each funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, to improve the earthquake risk management of 23 cities in Central Asia and India. The objectives of these projects are to: * Assess the earthquake risk of each city, * Identify the most effective risk mitigation options for each city, * Raise awareness of that risk and those mitigation options, and * Initiate mitigation activities in some of these cities. A critical characteristic of these projects is that leaders of each local community will be deeply involved in realizing all four objectives. GHI will work with, in addition to local authorities, national government, academic and non-governmental organizations. In India, GHI’s partners are the Disaster Management Planning Hyogo Office, United Nations Centre for Regional Development (UNCRD) of Kobe, Japan, and the Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development Society (SEEDS), of Delhi, India. In India, we will work in 20 cities that were chosen, in a February 1, 2002 workshop (sponsored by Munich Reinsurance Company) in Delhi; the cities were selected by Indian earthquake professionals on the basis of the cities’ population, hazard, and economic, cultural and political significance. In Central Asia, we will focus on Tashkent, Uzbekistan; Dushanbe, Tadzhikistan; and Almaty, Kazakstan. GHI and its partners are looking for other organizations that would like to collaborate on these projects.

  5. Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

    Sargeant, S.


    Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the

  6. Earthquake related tsunami hazard along the western coast of Thailand

    F. Løvholt


    Full Text Available The primary background for the present study was a project to assist the authorities in Thailand with development of plans for how to deal with the future tsunami risk in both short and long term perspectives, in the wake of the devastating 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and tsunami. The study is focussed on defining and analyzing a number of possible future earthquake scenarios (magnitudes 8.5, 8.0 and 7.5 with associated return periods, each one accompanied by specific tsunami modelling. Along the most affected part of the western coast of Thailand, the 2004 tsunami wave caused a maximum water level ranging from 5 to 15 m above mean sea level. These levels and their spatial distributions have been confirmed by detailed numerical simulations. The applied earthquake source is developed based on available seismological and geodetic inversions, and the simulation using the source as initial condition agree well with sea level records and run-up observations. A conclusion from the study is that another megathrust earthquake generating a tsunami affecting the coastline of western Thailand is not likely to occur again for several hundred years. This is in part based on the assumption that the Southern Andaman Microplate Boundary near the Simeulue Islands constitutes a geologic barrier that will prohibit significant rupture across it, and in part on the decreasing subduction rates north of the Banda Ache region. It is also concluded that the largest credible earthquake to be prepared for along the part of the Sunda-Andaman arc that could affect Thailand, is within the next 50–100 years an earthquake of magnitude 8.5, which is expected to occur with more spatial and temporal irregularity than the megathrust events. Numerical simulations have shown such earthquakes to cause tsunamis with maximum water levels up to 1.5–2.0 m along the western coast of Thailand, possibly 2.5–3.0 m on a high tide. However, in a longer time perspective

  7. Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China

    Shasha Li


    Full Text Available Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual’s earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded.

  8. Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China.

    Li, Shasha; Zhai, Guofang; Zhou, Shutian; Fan, Chenjing; Wu, Yunqing; Ren, Chongqiang


    Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual's earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded.

  9. Relations between source parameters for large Persian earthquakes

    Majid Nemati


    Full Text Available Empirical relationships for magnitude scales and fault parameters were produced using 436 Iranian intraplate earthquakes of recently regional databases since the continental events represent a large portion of total seismicity of Iran. The relations between different source parameters of the earthquakes were derived using input information which has usefully been provided from the databases after 1900. Suggested equations for magnitude scales relate the body-wave, surface-wave as well as local magnitude scales to scalar moment of the earthquakes. Also, dependence of source parameters as surface and subsurface rupture length and maximum surface displacement on the moment magnitude for some well documented earthquakes was investigated. For meeting this aim, ordinary linear regression procedures were employed for all relations. Our evaluations reveal a fair agreement between obtained relations and equations described in other worldwide and regional works in literature. The M0-mb and M0-MS equations are correlated well to the worldwide relations. Also, both M0-MS and M0-ML relations have a good agreement with regional studies in Taiwan. The equations derived from this study mainly confirm the results of the global investigations about rupture length of historical and instrumental events. However, some relations like MW-MN and MN-ML which are remarkably unlike to available regional works (e.g., American and Canadian were also found.

  10. Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

    Hansen, Frank

    We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...... relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky...

  11. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor


    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  12. Human Trafficking in Nepal: Post-Earthquake Risk and Response.

    Gyawali, Bishal; Keeling, June; Kallestrup, Per


    As Nepal mourns the 1-year commemoration of the April 2015 earthquake and its aftershocks that killed more than 8500 people and left thousands injured and displaced, other more hidden repercussions of the resultant chaotic environment need attention: the increased risk of human trafficking. Considering that natural disasters provide a milieu for this illicit trade, there is a need for a robust response from stakeholders such as donors, civil society organizations, and government organizations against human trafficking following disasters such as the Nepal earthquake. Responsibility to prevent and fight trafficking should be explicitly included in the mandate of relief and rehabilitation mechanisms set up at the national level to coordinate the disaster relief response, serving to support populations in both rural and urban areas. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;page 1 of 2).

  13. Incorporating human-triggered earthquake risks into energy and water policies

    Klose, C. D.; Seeber, L.; Jacob, K. H.


    A comprehensive understanding of earthquake risks in urbanized regions requires an accurate assessment of both urban vulnerabilities and hazards from earthquakes, including ones whose timing might be affected by human activities. Socioeconomic risks associated with human-triggered earthquakes are often misconstrued and receive little scientific, legal, and public attention. Worldwide, more than 200 damaging earthquakes, associated with industrialization and urbanization, were documented since the 20th century. Geomechanical pollution due to large-scale geoengineering activities can advance the clock of earthquakes, trigger new seismic events or even shot down natural background seismicity. Activities include mining, hydrocarbon production, fluid injections, water reservoir impoundments and deep-well geothermal energy production. This type of geohazard has impacts on human security on a regional and national level. Some planned or considered future engineering projects raise particularly strong concerns about triggered earthquakes, such as for instance, sequestration of carbon dioxide by injecting it deep underground and large-scale natural gas production in the Marcellus shale in the Appalacian basin. Worldwide examples of earthquakes are discussed, including their associated losses of human life and monetary losses (e.g., 1989 Newcastle and Volkershausen earthquakes, 2001 Killari earthquake, 2006 Basel earthquake, 2010 Wenchuan earthquake). An overview is given on global statistics of human-triggered earthquakes, including depths and time delay of triggering. Lastly, strategies are described, including risk mitigation measures such as urban planning adaptations and seismic hazard mapping.

  14. Earthquake


    正A serious earthquake happened in Wenchuan, Sichuan. Over 60,000 people died in the earhtquake, millins of people lost their homes. After the earthquake, people showed their love in different ways. Some gave food, medicine and everything necessary, some gave money,

  15. Geoethical suggestions for reducing risk of next (not only strong) earthquakes

    Nemec, Vaclav


    Three relatively recent examples of earthquakes can be used as a background for suggesting geoethical views into any prediction accompanied by a risk analysis. ĹAquila earthquake (Italy - 2009): ĹAquila was largely destroyed by earthquakes in 1315, 1319, 1452, 1461, 1501, 1646, 1703 (until that time altogether about 3000 victims) and 1786 (about 6000 victims of this event only). The city was rebuilt and remained stable until October 2008, when tremors began again. From January 1 through April 5, 2009, additional 304 tremors were reported. When after measuring increased levels of radon emitted from the ground a local citizen (for many years working for the Italian National Institute of Astrophysics) predicted a major earthquake on Italian television, he was accused of being alarmist. Italy's National Commission for Prediction and Prevention of Major Risks met in L'Aquila for one hour on March 31, 2009, without really evaluating and characterising the risks that were present. On April 6 a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck Aquila and nearby towns, killing 309 people and injuring more than 1,500. The quake also destroyed roughly 20,000 buildings, temporarily displacing another 65,000 people. In July 2010, prosecutor Fabio Picuti charged the Commission members with manslaughter and negligence for failing to warn the public of the impending risk. Many international organizations joined the chorus of criticism wrongly interpreting the accusation and sentence at the first stage as a problem of impossibility to predict earthquakes. - The Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption (Iceland - 2010) is a reminder that in our globalized, interconnected world because of the increased sensibility of the new technology even a relatively small natural disaster may cause unexpected range of problems. - Earthquake and tsunami (Japan - 2011) - the most powerful known earthquake ever to have hit Japan on March 11. Whereas the proper earthquake with the magnitude of 9.0 has caused minimum of

  16. Decreasing relative risk premium

    Hansen, Frank


    We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged wealth or an even higher level than what can be obtained with certainty. We study preferences...... such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...... and have decreasing relative risk premium. We finally introduce the notion of partial risk neutral preferences on binary lotteries and show that partial risk neutrality is equivalent to preferences with decreasing relative risk premium...

  17. The 1868 Hayward fault, California, earthquake: Implications for earthquake scaling relations on partially creeping faults

    Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey


    The 21 October 1868 Hayward, California, earthquake is among the best-characterized historical earthquakes in California. In contrast to many other moderate-to-large historical events, the causative fault is clearly established. Published magnitude estimates have been fairly consistent, ranging from 6.8 to 7.2, with 95% confidence limits including values as low as 6.5. The magnitude is of particular importance for assessment of seismic hazard associated with the Hayward fault and, more generally, to develop appropriate magnitude–rupture length scaling relations for partially creeping faults. The recent reevaluation of archival accounts by Boatwright and Bundock (2008), together with the growing volume of well-calibrated intensity data from the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system, provide an opportunity to revisit and refine the magnitude estimate. In this study, we estimate the magnitude using two different methods that use DYFI data as calibration. Both approaches yield preferred magnitude estimates of 6.3–6.6, assuming an average stress drop. A consideration of data limitations associated with settlement patterns increases the range to 6.3–6.7, with a preferred estimate of 6.5. Although magnitude estimates for historical earthquakes are inevitably uncertain, we conclude that, at a minimum, a lower-magnitude estimate represents a credible alternative interpretation of available data. We further discuss implications of our results for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment from partially creeping faults.

  18. Are Our Buildings Safe Enough for Controlling Earthquake Mortality Risk?

    Tsang, Hing-Ho; Wenzel, Friedemann; Daniell, James


    Structural engineers design buildings strictly according to the earthquake actions (demand) specified in code of practice, whilst the rationale behind such requirement is commonly untold. In fact, even if a structure is designed strictly in accordance to the best standard and practice in the world, there is still a (small) chance of failure or collapse in an extreme earthquake event, due to the uncertainties in material properties and actual ground motion characteristics. This is called the residual risk, which is unavoidable, and should be taken as a governing parameter for determining the performance goals of seismic design. Eurocode 8 is not a risk targeted code as its design requirements refer to return periods of ground motion rather than to collapse probabilities and/or probability of fatalities. The US International Building Code (IBC 2012) and the 2010 structural design standards of ASCE 7-10 target collapse probabilities for all levels of ground motion and accept a 1% collapse probability in 50 years as acceptable for design. Consequently, the input ground motion to design is no longer a hazard map for a uniform return period. However, we show that this risk target is not generally compatible with the intention to keep the fatality risk below the 10-6 per year threshold in code-compliant buildings. Moreover, the metric of individual fatality risk may not be appropriate as for (technological) incidents many regulations define requirements for the F-N curve so that loss events with, for instance, 100 fatalities in one event should occur much less frequently than events with 10 or more fatalities.


    Yamamoto, Toshiyuki; Hashimoto, Yasuhiro; Yoshida, Masayuki; Ohno, Kikuo; Ohto, Hitoshi; Abe, Masafumi


    On March 11(th) 2011, the Tohoku region of Japan was struck by catastrophic disasters. Thousands of people were killed due to a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and its subsequent tsunami. Furthermore, a serious nuclear crisis occurred in Fukushima Prefecture as a result of the disasters, and an emergency evacuation was ordered to people living near the nuclear power plants. There was a lot of anxiety regarding lost families as well as the influences of radioactivity on the health of people and their children. Based on these urgent and uncertain situations, a number of research projects were developed at many institutes both inside and outside Fukushima. We herein report the investigative research projects related to the Tohoku Earthquake (The Great East Japan Earthquake) conducted after the disasters. The research projects were reviewed by the Institutional Review Board in Fukushima Medical University during the two years following the disasters. The research projects conducted in universities other than Fukushima Medical University were also examined using questionnaire analysis. Among the research projects conducted in Fukushima Medical University (n=424), 7% (n=32) were disaster-related investigative research. The mean duration planned to pursue the projects was 25.5 months. Among these projects, those focusing on the health of Fukushima citizens were most common (n=9), followed by the influence of chronic exposure of radiation on chronic inflammatory disorders (n=6), and the mental health of Fukushima citizens (n=5). They were carefully reviewed for the purpose, suitability, and necessity from ethical as well as scientific viewpoints. The majority of the research projects focused on the effects of the Tohoku Earthquake and/or chronic exposure to low-dose radioactivity on the health of children and pregnant women, as well as on various disorders, such as mental health and chronic inflammatory diseases. On the other hand, among 58 projects we collected from 22

  20. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Piping Fragility due to Earthquake Fault Mechanisms

    Bu Seog Ju


    Full Text Available A lifeline system, serving as an energy-supply system, is an essential component of urban infrastructure. In a hospital, for example, the piping system supplies elements essential for hospital operations, such as water and fire-suppression foam. Such nonstructural components, especially piping systems and their subcomponents, must remain operational and functional during earthquake-induced fires. But the behavior of piping systems as subjected to seismic ground motions is very complex, owing particularly to the nonlinearity affected by the existence of many connections such as T-joints and elbows. The present study carried out a probabilistic risk assessment on a hospital fire-protection piping system’s acceleration-sensitive 2-inch T-joint sprinkler components under seismic ground motions. Specifically, the system’s seismic capacity, using an experimental-test-based nonlinear finite element (FE model, was evaluated for the probability of failure under different earthquake-fault mechanisms including normal fault, reverse fault, strike-slip fault, and near-source ground motions. It was observed that the probabilistic failure of the T-joint of the fire-protection piping system varied significantly according to the fault mechanisms. The normal-fault mechanism led to a higher probability of system failure at locations 1 and 2. The strike-slip fault mechanism, contrastingly, affected the lowest fragility of the piping system at a higher PGA.

  1. Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

    Hansen, Frank

    We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...

  2. Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

    Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))


    The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

  3. Earthquake Risk - EARTHQUAKE_LIQUEFACTION_IN: Earthquake Paleoliquefaction Sites in Indiana (Indiana Geological Survey, 1:24,000, Point Shapefile)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — EARTHQUAKE_LIQUEFACTION_IN is a point shapefile that shows sites where paleoliquefaction features have been identified in the field by Pat Munson of the Indiana...

  4. Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation

    Mata, Isabel; Rodrigues, Isabel; Matias, Luis


    "Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation" Isabel Rodrigues, Jardim de Infância D. Dinis, Odivelas, Isabel Mata, Secondary School Adelaide Cabette, Odivelas Luis Matias (UL / IDL), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universityof Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal In Portugal Education for risk is now recognized as a child training component and young learners should develop the right skills in the first years of life. School can have an important role in this process, as a privileged actor in the mobilization of every society, providing and promoting dynamic and educational practices aimed at the wider spectrum of education for citizenship, the adoption of safety behaviours, prevention and adequate management of risk. The Group of Schools Adelaide Cabette in Odivelas is now a set of schools, from Kindergarten to Secondary. Aiming at educating for risk prevention, we developed an experiment with a pre-school class directed to the seismic risk, which was extended to Earth Sciences because it is difficult to teach this topic to the youngest learners, either from Kindergarten or from Primary School, as they haven't learned enough about planet Earth (many don't even know that it is not flat but round like a ball). This experiment involved a working project 1, which was initially developed in one of the classrooms, in kindergarten D. Dinis, and many questions have been asked by the students. The explanation for the students' questions gave origin to a set of experiences developed in the Secondary school. The same class concluded the project in their own classroom. In this project the young learners could have contact with pre-school teachers, secondary and university researchers, thus promoting the sharing of different knowledge, including the scientific linked to the educational one. We would like to share our poster summarizing our experience which we feltwas not only a great challenge, but also a rewarding way to disseminate science to the youngest learners. 1. Keywords

  5. Precise relative locations for earthquakes in the northeast Pacific region

    Cleveland, K. Michael; VanDeMark, Thomas F.; Ammon, Charles J.


    Double-difference methods applied to cross-correlation measured Rayleigh wave time shifts are an effective tool to improve epicentroid locations and relative origin time shifts in remote regions. We apply these methods to seismicity offshore of southwestern Canada and the U.S. Pacific Northwest, occurring along the boundaries of the Pacific and Juan de Fuca (including the Explorer Plate and Gorda Block) Plates. The Blanco, Mendocino, Revere-Dellwood, Nootka, and Sovanco fracture zones host the majority of this seismicity, largely consisting of strike-slip earthquakes. The Explorer, Juan de Fuca, and Gorda spreading ridges join these fracture zones and host normal faulting earthquakes. Our results show that at least the moderate-magnitude activity clusters along fault strike, supporting suggestions of large variations in seismic coupling along oceanic transform faults. Our improved relative locations corroborate earlier interpretations of the internal deformation in the Explorer and Gorda Plates. North of the Explorer Plate, improved locations support models that propose northern extension of the Revere-Dellwood fault. Relocations also support interpretations that favor multiple parallel active faults along the Blanco Transform Fault Zone. Seismicity of the western half of the Blanco appears more scattered and less collinear than the eastern half, possibly related to fault maturity. We use azimuthal variations in the Rayleigh wave cross-correlation amplitude to detect and model rupture directivity for a moderate size earthquake along the eastern Blanco Fault. The observations constrain the seismogenic zone geometry and suggest a relatively narrow seismogenic zone width of 2 to 4 km.

  6. Building Inventory Database on the Urban Scale Using GIS for Earthquake Risk Assessment

    Kaplan, O.; Avdan, U.; Guney, Y.; Helvaci, C.


    The majority of the existing buildings are not safe against earthquakes in most of the developing countries. Before a devastating earthquake, existing buildings need to be assessed and the vulnerable ones must be determined. Determining the seismic performance of existing buildings which is usually made with collecting the attributes of existing buildings, making the analysis and the necessary queries, and producing the result maps is very hard and complicated procedure that can be simplified with Geographic Information System (GIS). The aim of this study is to produce a building inventory database using GIS for assessing the earthquake risk of existing buildings. In this paper, a building inventory database for 310 buildings, located in Eskisehir, Turkey, was produced in order to assess the earthquake risk of the buildings. The results from this study show that 26% of the buildings have high earthquake risk, 33% of the buildings have medium earthquake risk and the 41% of the buildings have low earthquake risk. The produced building inventory database can be very useful especially for governments in dealing with the problem of determining seismically vulnerable buildings in the large existing building stocks. With the help of this kind of methods, determination of the buildings, which may collapse and cause life and property loss during a possible future earthquake, will be very quick, cheap and reliable.

  7. Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

    Nyst, M.


    The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses

  8. Geographical detector-based risk assessment of the under-five mortality in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China.

    Yi Hu

    Full Text Available On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers.

  9. Factors Related to Complicated Grief among Bereaved Individuals after the Wenchuan Earthquake in China

    Xiao-Lin Hu; Xiao-Lin Li; Xin-Man Dou; Rong Li


    Background:The Wenchuan earthquake in China caused shock and grief worldwide.Sudden bereavement caused by the earthquake led to physical disorders as well as psychological disturbances in the bereaved individuals.The bereaved had a high risk for complicated grief (CG),which may have led to significant distress and impairment in their health.However,there was few available studies on CG among disaster-bereaved individuals in China after the disaster.The aim of this study was to identify factors (demographic characteristics and disaster-related variables) associated with symptoms of CG among the bereaved 18 months after the Wenchuan earthquake.Methods:This study was conducted with a cross-sectional design and a convenience sample of 27 1 bereaved individuals from three of the hardest hit areas.Data were collected by questionnaires and the instruments used in the study were:General questionnaire and Inventory ofCG (ICG).Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with symptoms of CG.Results:The mean score on ICG was 52.77 (standard deviation:10.00).Being female and loss of a child were related to higher level of CG while having another child after the disaster and receiving psychological counseling experience were associated with lower level of CG.Forty-nine percent of the variance of CG was explained by these identified factors.Conclusions:Eighteen months after the Wenchuan earthquake,the symptoms of CG among the bereaved were higher than the previous studies with bereaved individuals.This study uncovers a vulnerable population of the bereaved at high risk for CG.Early assessments,targeted interventions,and policy support tailored for the disaster-bereaved individuals are necessary to identify and alleviate symptoms of CG and to improve their well-being.

  10. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    G. Babayev


    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  11. Earthquake Scenario for the City of Gyumri Including Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Babayan, H.; Karakhanyan, A.; Arakelyan, A.; Avanesyan, M.; Durgaryan, R.; Babayan, S.; Gevorgyan, M.; Hovhannisyan, G.


    The city of Gyumri situated in the north of Armenia falls in the zone of active Akhouryan Fault and during the 20th century it suffered from catastrophic earthquakes twice. The Mw=6.2 earthquake in 1926 and the Spitak earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 in 1988 killed more than 20,000 people in total. Therefore, current seismic hazard and risk assessment for the city are of great importance. It is also very important to answer how properly the lessons of the Spitak earthquake have been learned for this largest city in the Spitak earthquake disaster zone, what the real level of seismic risk is now, and what losses the city could expect if a similar or stronger earthquake occurred nowadays. For this purposes, the most probable earthquakes scenarios have been developed by means of comprehensive assessment of seismic hazard and risk, The conducted study helped to produce the actual pattern of effects caused by the Spitak earthquake in terms of losses and damage caused to diverse types of buildings and thus enabled correct selection of required parameter values to estimate vulnerability of the structures and test the ELER software package (designated for estimation of losses and damages developed in the framework of GEM-EMME Project). The work was realized by the following sequence of steps: probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic hazard for the Gyumri city region - choice of earthquake scenario (based on the disaggregation and seismotectonic model) - risk estimation for each selected earthquake scenario. In the framework of this study, different parameters of seismic hazard such as peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration were investigated and mapped, and soil model for city was developed. Subsequently, these maps were used as the basic inputs to assess the expected life, building, and lifeline losses. The presented work was realized with the financial support of UNDP. The results of the Project will serve the basis for national and local

  12. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.


    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  13. Strong Earthquake Activity and Its Relation to Regional Neotectonic Movement in Sichuan-Yunnan Region

    Su Youjin; Qin Jiazheng


    Based on analyzing space inhomogeneous image of strong earthquake activity, the image of source rupture and the mechanical property of the source fault in Sichuan-Yunnan region, the relations among the strong earthquake activity, active fault, modern movement status of active blocks and structural background of the deep media have been discussed, and the characteristics of strong earthquake activity and possible mechanism have been also discussed.

  14. Estimation of source parameters and scaling relations for moderate size earthquakes in North-West Himalaya

    Kumar, Vikas; Kumar, Dinesh; Chopra, Sumer


    The scaling relation and self similarity of earthquake process have been investigated by estimating the source parameters of 34 moderate size earthquakes (mb 3.4-5.8) occurred in the NW Himalaya. The spectral analysis of body waves of 217 accelerograms recorded at 48 sites have been carried out using in the present analysis. The Brune's ω-2 model has been adopted for this purpose. The average ratio of the P-wave corner frequency, fc(P), to the S-wave corner frequency, fc(S), has been found to be 1.39 with fc(P) > fc(S) for 90% of the events analyzed here. This implies the shift in the corner frequency in agreement with many other similar studies done for different regions. The static stress drop values for all the events analyzed here lie in the range 10-100 bars average stress drop value of the order of 43 ± 19 bars for the region. This suggests the likely estimate of the dynamic stress drop, which is 2-3 times the static stress drop, is in the range of about 80-120 bars. This suggests the relatively high seismic hazard in the NW Himalaya as high frequency strong ground motions are governed by the stress drop. The estimated values of stress drop do not show significant variation with seismic moment for the range 5 × 1014-2 × 1017 N m. This observation along with the cube root scaling of corner frequencies suggests the self similarity of the moderate size earthquakes in the region. The scaling relation between seismic moment and corner frequency Mo fc3 = 3.47 ×1016Nm /s3 estimated in the present study can be utilized to estimate the source dimension given the seismic moment of the earthquake for the hazard assessment. The present study puts the constrains on the important parameters stress drop and source dimension required for the synthesis of strong ground motion from the future expected earthquakes in the region. Therefore, the present study is useful for the seismic hazard and risk related studies for NW Himalaya.

  15. Sustainable Urban Planning and Risk Assessment of Earthquake Hazards in Turkey

    Tarhan, C.; Deniz, D.


    Cities in the developing world are facing increased risk of disasters and the potential of economic and human losses from natural hazards is being exacerbated by the rate of unplanned urban expansion and influenced by the quality of urban management. Risk assessment has come to be regarded by many analysts as a critical part of the development of sustainable communities. The risk assessment function has been linked to issues such as environmental stewardship and community planning. The crucial point is the linkage between hazard mitigation efforts and urban planning in the context of building sustainable communities. But this conceptual linkage has been difficult to implement in practice. The resolution of this difficulty and a clarification of the essential linkage of hazard mitigation to urban planning will require a broader definition and a reformulation of the risk assessment function. Turkey is one of the countries that support the international sustainability. However, it is hardly related urban planning with sustainability in Turkey. At this point, this paper aims to introduce the integration of sustainability and risk assessment in Turkey. The components of the sustainable communities have been discussed and earthquake risk in Turkey has been explained with the recent past examples. At the end of the study, the relationship between risk assessment and the sustainable urban planning in Turkey has been examined in terms of Turkish urban planning system.

  16. EFEHR - the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk: beyond the web-platform

    Danciu, Laurentiu; Wiemer, Stefan; Haslinger, Florian; Kastli, Philipp; Giardini, Domenico


    European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (EEFEHR) represents the sustainable community resource for seismic hazard and risk in Europe. The EFEHR web platform is the main gateway to access data, models and tools as well as provide expertise relevant for assessment of seismic hazard and risk. The main services (databases and web-platform) are hosted at ETH Zurich and operated by the Swiss Seismological Service (Schweizerischer Erdbebendienst SED). EFEHR web-portal ( collects and displays (i) harmonized datasets necessary for hazard and risk modeling, e.g. seismic catalogues, fault compilations, site amplifications, vulnerabilities, inventories; (ii) extensive seismic hazard products, namely hazard curves, uniform hazard spectra and maps for national and regional assessments. (ii) standardized configuration files for re-computing the regional seismic hazard models; (iv) relevant documentation of harmonized datasets, models and web-services. Today, EFEHR distributes full output of the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model, ESHM13, as developed within the SHARE project (; the latest results of the 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME14), derived within the EMME Project (; the 2001 Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP) results and the 2015 updates of the Swiss Seismic Hazard. New datasets related to either seismic hazard or risk will be incorporated as they become available. We present the currents status of the EFEHR platform, with focus on the challenges, summaries of the up-to-date datasets, user experience and feedback, as well as the roadmap to future technological innovation beyond the web-platform development. We also show the new services foreseen to fully integrate with the seismological core services of European Plate Observing System (EPOS).

  17. Behavioral change related to Wenchuan devastating earthquake in mice.

    Li, Yonghong; Liu, Yanyou; Jiang, Zhou; Guan, Junwen; Yi, Guixi; Cheng, Shuting; Yang, Bo; Fu, Tianming; Wang, Zhengrong


    It has been suggested that some animals are much more capable of perceiving certain kinds of geophysical stimuli which may precede earthquakes than humans, but the anecdotal phenomena or stories about unusual animal behaviors prior to an earthquake should be interpreted with objective data. During the Wenchuan magnitude 8.0 earthquake that happened in Wenchuan county (31.0 degrees north latitude, 103.4 degrees east longitude) of Sichuan province, China, on May 12, 2008, eight mice were monitored for locomotor activity and circadian rhythm in constant darkness with temperature 22-24 degrees C and humidity 55-65% for 38 days. The ongoing monitoring of locomotor activity of mice in our laboratory made it possible to design a posteriori study investigating whether the earthquake was associated with any change in animal behavior. Based on analyzing the recorded data with single cosinor, we found that the locomotor activity dramatically decreased in six of these eight mice on day 3 before the earthquake, and the circadian rhythm of their locomotor activity was no longer detected. The behavioral change lasted for 6 days before the locomotor activity returned to its original state. Analyses of concurrent geomagnetic data showed a higher total intensity during the span when the circadian rhythm in locomotor activity weakened. These results indicated that the behaviors, including circadian rhythm and activity, in these mice indeed changed prior to the earthquake, and the behavioral change might be associated with a change of geomagnetic intensity.

  18. Developing Effective Earthquake Risk Reduction Strategies: The Potential Role of Academic Institutions in Lebanon

    Baytiyeh, Hoda


    Lebanon faces the risk of powerful earthquakes with potentially devastating effects. However, the Lebanese people in general have not yet recognized this risk, as current educational programs and government officials have failed to inform them about it. This article discusses the essential role that Lebanese institutions of higher education should…

  19. Developing Effective Earthquake Risk Reduction Strategies: The Potential Role of Academic Institutions in Lebanon

    Baytiyeh, Hoda


    Lebanon faces the risk of powerful earthquakes with potentially devastating effects. However, the Lebanese people in general have not yet recognized this risk, as current educational programs and government officials have failed to inform them about it. This article discusses the essential role that Lebanese institutions of higher education should…

  20. Short-term earthquake risk assessment considering time-dependent b-values

    Gulia, Laura; Tormann, Thessa; Wiemer, Stefan


    Observations from laboratory experiments measuring acoustic emissions during loading cycles in pressurized rock samples have repeatedly suggested that small events in the precursory phase of an impending large event change in their relative size distribution. In particular, they highlight a systematic b-value decrease during the stress increase period before the main event. A number of large natural events, but not all of them, have been shown to have a precursory decrease in the b-value at very different time scales, from months to a few days before the subsequent mainshock. At present short term-forecast models such as STEP and ETAS consider the generic probability that an event can trigger subsequent seismicity in the near field; the rate increasing during the foreshock sequences can offer a probability gain for a significant earthquake to happen. While the probability gain of a stationary Poissonian background is substantial, selected case studies have shown through cost-benefit analysis that the absolute probability remains too low to warrant actions. This was shown for example by van Stiphout et al. (2010, GRL), for the 2009 a Mw 6.3 earthquake that hit the city of L'Aquila (Central Italy) after three months of foreshock activity. We here analyze the probability gain of a novel generation of short term forecast models which considers both the change in the seismicity rates and the temporal changes in the b-value. Changes in earthquake probability are then translated also into time-dependent hazard and risk. Preliminary results suggest that the precursory b-value decrease in the L'Aquila case results in an additional probability increase of a M6.3 event of about a factor of 30-50, which then surpasses the cost-benefit threshold for short-term evacuation in selected cases.

  1. Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

    Mourhatch, Ramses

    This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis. As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California. Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2s-2.0s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period (> 2.0s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms. Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with

  2. Collapse risk of buildings in the Pacific Northwest region due to subduction earthquakes

    Raghunandan, Meera; Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas


    Subduction earthquakes similar to the 2011 Japan and 2010 Chile events will occur in the future in the Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest. In this paper, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out on 24 buildings designed according to outdated and modern building codes for the cities of Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon. The results indicate that the median collapse capacity of the ductile (post-1970) buildings is approximately 40% less when subjected to ground motions from subduction, as compared to crustal earthquakes. Buildings are more susceptible to earthquake-induced collapse when shaken by subduction records (as compared to crustal records of the same intensity) because the subduction motions tend to be longer in duration due to their larger magnitude and the greater source-to-site distance. As a result, subduction earthquakes are shown to contribute to the majority of the collapse risk of the buildings analyzed.

  3. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.


    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  4. Statistics and Analysis of the Relations between Rainstorm Floods and Earthquakes

    Baodeng Hou


    Full Text Available The frequent occurrence of geophysical disasters under climate change has drawn Chinese scholars to pay their attention to disaster relations. If the occurrence sequence of disasters could be identified, long-term disaster forecast could be realized. Based on the Earth Degassing Effect (EDE which is valid, this paper took the magnitude, epicenter, and occurrence time of the earthquake, as well as the epicenter and occurrence time of the rainstorm floods as basic factors to establish an integrated model to study the correlation between rainstorm floods and earthquakes. 2461 severe earthquakes occurred in China or within 3000 km from China and the 169 heavy rainstorm floods occurred in China over the past 200+ years as the input data of the model. The computational results showed that although most of the rainstorm floods have nothing to do with the severe earthquakes from a statistical perspective, some floods might relate to earthquakes. This is especially true when the earthquakes happen in the vapor transmission zone where rainstorms lead to abundant water vapors. In this regard, earthquakes are more likely to cause big rainstorm floods. However, many cases of rainstorm floods could be found after severe earthquakes with a large extent of uncertainty.

  5. Communicating Earthquake Preparedness: The Influence of Induced Mood, Perceived Risk, and Gain or Loss Frames on Homeowners' Attitudes Toward General Precautionary Measures for Earthquakes.

    Marti, Michèle; Stauffacher, Michael; Matthes, Jörg; Wiemer, Stefan


    Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, actual preparedness levels remain universally low. Although earthquake-resistant building design is the most efficient way to decrease potential losses, its application is not a legal requirement across all earthquake-prone countries and even if, often not strictly enforced. Risk communication encouraging homeowners to take precautionary measures is therefore an important means to enhance a country's earthquake resilience. Our study illustrates that specific interactions of mood, perceived risk, and frame type significantly affect homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The interdependencies of the variables mood, risk information, and frame type were tested in an experimental 2 × 2 × 2 design (N = 156). Only in combination and not on their own, these variables effectively influence attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The control variables gender, "trait anxiety" index, and alteration of perceived risk adjust the effect. Overall, the group with the strongest attitudes toward general precautionary actions for earthquakes are homeowners with induced negative mood who process high-risk information and gain-framed messages. However, the conditions comprising induced negative mood, low-risk information and loss-frame and induced positive mood, low-risk information and gain-framed messages both also significantly influence homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. These results mostly confirm previous findings in the field of health communication. For practitioners, our study emphasizes that carefully compiled communication measures are a powerful means to encourage precautionary attitudes among homeowners, especially for those with an elevated perceived risk. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. On communicating earthquake risk in low-activity areas

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Rivas-Medina, A.; Benito, B.; Wachowicz, M.; Bernabé, M. A.; Iturrioz, T.


    The assessment of natural risks for emergency response and preparedness planning is a transversal discipline that can be studied from many perspectives, including social, political and earth sciences. Accordingly, people with different profiles and backgrounds working on the topic should use of a common language in order to avoid misunderstandings, improve information dissemination, and at the end, facilitate preparedness and response measurements in the right direction. Some ideas aimed at identifying communication barriers between all parties and suppressing them are presented, using the example of regional seismic risk studies of low-hazard areas, where the rare occurrence of destructive events complicates the situation. First, factors related to the actual awareness, the degree of understanding and the interest for getting the information about a given a natural risk, are analyzed taking into account that they differ from user to user (civil protection official, scientist, general public). Subsequently, choices of parameters used to typify seismic risk and ways of representing them graphically are proposed. Finally, whether the incidence of the lack of a common language increases risk vulnerability is discussed.

  7. EQRM: An open-source event-based earthquake risk modeling program

    Robinson, D. J.; Dhu, T.; Row, P.


    Geoscience Australia's Earthquake Risk Model (EQRM) is an event-based tool for earthquake scenario ground motion and scenario loss modeling as well as probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and risk (PSRA) modeling. It has been used to conduct PSHA and PSRA for many of Australia's largest cities and it has become an important tool for the emergency management community which use it for scneario response planning. It has the potential to link with earthquake monitoring programs to provide automatic loss estimates from network recorded events. An open-source alpha-release version of the software is freely available on SourceForge. It can be used for hazard or risk analyses in any region of the world by supplying appropriately formatted input files. Source code is also supplied so advanced users can modify individual components to suit their needs.

  8. Advances in earthquake and tsunami sciences and disaster risk reduction since the 2004 Indian ocean tsunami

    Satake, Kenji


    The December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was the worst tsunami disaster in the world's history with more than 200,000 casualties. This disaster was attributed to giant size (magnitude M ~ 9, source length >1000 km) of the earthquake, lacks of expectation of such an earthquake, tsunami warning system, knowledge and preparedness for tsunamis in the Indian Ocean countries. In the last ten years, seismology and tsunami sciences as well as tsunami disaster risk reduction have significantly developed. Progress in seismology includes implementation of earthquake early warning, real-time estimation of earthquake source parameters and tsunami potential, paleoseismological studies on past earthquakes and tsunamis, studies of probable maximum size, recurrence variability, and long-term forecast of large earthquakes in subduction zones. Progress in tsunami science includes accurate modeling of tsunami source such as contribution of horizontal components or "tsunami earthquakes", development of new types of offshore and deep ocean tsunami observation systems such as GPS buoys or bottom pressure gauges, deployments of DART gauges in the Pacific and other oceans, improvements in tsunami propagation modeling, and real-time inversion or data assimilation for the tsunami warning. These developments have been utilized for tsunami disaster reduction in the forms of tsunami early warning systems, tsunami hazard maps, and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments. Some of the above scientific developments helped to reveal the source characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which caused devastating tsunami damage in Japan and Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident. Toward tsunami disaster risk reduction, interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary approaches are needed for scientists with other stakeholders.

  9. Bayesian probabilistic network approach for managing earthquake risks of cities

    Bayraktarli, Yahya; Faber, Michael


    and geographical information systems. The proposed framework comprises several modules: A module on the probabilistic description of potential future earthquake shaking intensity, a module on the probabilistic assessment of spatial variability of soil liquefaction, a module on damage assessment of buildings...... on an example considering a portfolio of reinforced concrete structures in a city located close to the western part of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey....

  10. Prevalence and risk factors of posttraumatic stress disorder among teachers 3 months after the Lushan earthquake: A cross-sectional study.

    Zhang, Jun; Zhang, Ye; Du, Changhui; Zhu, Shenyue; Huang, Yalin; Tian, Yulian; Chen, Decao; Li, Haimin; Gong, Yao; Zhang, Mengmeng; Gu, Bo


    Teachers and students often suffer from the same disaster. The prevalence of PTSD in students has been given great attention. However, in acting as mentors to students and their families, teachers are more likely to have vicarious and indirect exposure via hearing stories of their aftermath and witnessing the consequences of traumatic events. There are limited data pertaining to the prevalence of PTSD and its risk factors among teachers. A total of 316 teachers from 21 primary and secondary schools in Baoxing County were administered a project-developed questionnaire which included the items regarding demographic characteristics, earthquake-related experiences, somatic discomforts, emotional reactions, support status, and everyday functioning 2 weeks after the Lushan earthquake, and they finished a 1-to-1 telephone interview for addressing the PTSD criteria of the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) 3 months after the earthquake. The prevalence of PTSD was 24.4% among teachers. Somatic discomforts (odds ratio [OR] 1.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-3.37) were positive risk factors of PTSD. Perceived social support (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.14-0.62) and being able to calm down (OR 0.25, 95% CI 0.09-0.75) in teaching were negative risk factors. PTSD is commonly seen among teachers after an earthquake, and risk factors of PTSD were identified. These findings may help those providing psychological health programs to find the teachers who are at high risk of PTSD in schools after an earthquake in China.

  11. Minimization of Basis Risk in Parametric Earthquake Cat Bonds

    Franco, G.


    A catastrophe -cat- bond is an instrument used by insurance and reinsurance companies, by governments or by groups of nations to cede catastrophic risk to the financial markets, which are capable of supplying cover for highly destructive events, surpassing the typical capacity of traditional reinsurance contracts. Parametric cat bonds, a specific type of cat bonds, use trigger mechanisms or indices that depend on physical event parameters published by respected third parties in order to determine whether a part or the entire bond principal is to be paid for a certain event. First generation cat bonds, or cat-in-a-box bonds, display a trigger mechanism that consists of a set of geographic zones in which certain conditions need to be met by an earthquake’s magnitude and depth in order to trigger payment of the bond principal. Second generation cat bonds use an index formulation that typically consists of a sum of products of a set of weights by a polynomial function of the ground motion variables reported by a geographically distributed seismic network. These instruments are especially appealing to developing countries with incipient insurance industries wishing to cede catastrophic losses to the financial markets because the payment trigger mechanism is transparent and does not involve the parties ceding or accepting the risk, significantly reducing moral hazard. In order to be successful in the market, however, parametric cat bonds have typically been required to specify relatively simple trigger conditions. The consequence of such simplifications is the increase of basis risk. This risk represents the possibility that the trigger mechanism fails to accurately capture the actual losses of a catastrophic event, namely that it does not trigger for a highly destructive event or vice versa, that a payment of the bond principal is caused by an event that produced insignificant losses. The first case disfavors the sponsor who was seeking cover for its losses while the

  12. Relating triggering processes in lab experiments with earthquakes.

    Baro Urbea, J.; Davidsen, J.; Kwiatek, G.; Charalampidou, E. M.; Goebel, T.; Stanchits, S. A.; Vives, E.; Dresen, G.


    Statistical relations such as Gutenberg-Richter's, Omori-Utsu's and the productivity of aftershocks were first observed in seismology, but are also common to other physical phenomena exhibiting avalanche dynamics such as solar flares, rock fracture, structural phase transitions and even stock market transactions. All these examples exhibit spatio-temporal correlations that can be explained as triggering processes: Instead of being activated as a response to external driving or fluctuations, some events are consequence of previous activity. Although different plausible explanations have been suggested in each system, the ubiquity of such statistical laws remains unknown. However, the case of rock fracture may exhibit a physical connection with seismology. It has been suggested that some features of seismology have a microscopic origin and are reproducible over a vast range of scales. This hypothesis has motivated mechanical experiments to generate artificial catalogues of earthquakes at a laboratory scale -so called labquakes- and under controlled conditions. Microscopic fractures in lab tests release elastic waves that are recorded as ultrasonic (kHz-MHz) acoustic emission (AE) events by means of piezoelectric transducers. Here, we analyse the statistics of labquakes recorded during the failure of small samples of natural rocks and artificial porous materials under different controlled compression regimes. Temporal and spatio-temporal correlations are identified in certain cases. Specifically, we distinguish between the background and triggered events, revealing some differences in the statistical properties. We fit the data to statistical models of seismicity. As a particular case, we explore the branching process approach simplified in the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. We evaluate the empirical spatio-temporal kernel of the model and investigate the physical origins of triggering. Our analysis of the focal mechanisms implies that the occurrence

  13. [Prevalence and prevention of common nutritional risks in children after earthquake].

    Fan, Chao-Nan


    Children have been identified as the most nutritionally vulnerable group when disaster happens. The most common nutritional risks include protein-energy malnutrition, iron-deficiency anemia, and trace element deficiency in children after earthquake. During the disaster relief, effective nutritional interventions should be performed according to the nutritional conditions of children in the affected area, so as to prevent the common nutritional risks. Timely diagnosis and treatment should be provided for children at a high risk of malnutrition.

  14. Risk assessment of people trapped in earthquake based on km grid: a case study of the 2014 Ludian earthquake

    Wei, Ben-Yong; Nie, Gao-Zhong; Su, Gui-Wu; Sun, Lei


    China is one of the most earthquake prone countries in the world. The priority during earthquake emergency response is saving lives and minimizing casualties. Rapid judgment of the trapped location is the important basis for government to reasonable arrange the emergency rescue forces and resources after the earthquake. Through analyzing the key factors resulting in people trapped, we constructed an assessment model of personal trapped (PTED)in collapsed buildings caused by earthquake disaster. Then taking the 2014 Ludian Earthquake as a case, this study evaluated the distribution of trapped personal during this earthquake using the assessment model based on km grid data. Results showed that, there are two prerequisites for people might be trapped by the collapse of buildings in earthquake: earthquake caused buildings collapse and there are people in building when building collapsing; the PTED model could be suitable to assess the trapped people in collapsed buildings caused by earthquake. The distribution of people trapped by the collapse of buildings in the Ludian earthquake assessed by the model is basically the same as that obtained by the actual survey. Assessment of people trapped in earthquake based on km grid can meet the requirements of search-and-rescue zone identification and rescue forces allocation in the early stage of the earthquake emergency. In future, as the basic data become more complete, assessment of people trapped in earthquake based on km grid should provide more accurate and valid suggestions for earthquake emergency search and rescue.

  15. Earthquakes

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  16. [The prevention of crush syndrome related medical problems after earthquake].

    Wang, Li; He, Qiang; Li, Gui-Sen


    Crush syndrome in patients rescued from earthquake is a complex clinical syndrome with many medical conditions. The most common complications are hyperkalemia, acute kidney injury, shock, infection, ARDS, malnutrition and multiorgan dysfunction. Managing these critical issues appropriately is essential for effective treatment of the crush syndrome.

  17. LastQuake: a comprehensive strategy for rapid engagement of earthquake eyewitnesses, massive crowdsourcing and risk reduction

    Bossu, R.; Roussel, F.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.; Frobert, L.


    LastQuake is a smartphone app, browser add-on and the most sophisticated Twitter robot (quakebot) for earthquakes currently in operation. It fulfills eyewitnesses' needs by offering information on felt earthquakes and their effects within tens of seconds of their occurrence. Associated with an active presence on Facebook, Pinterest and on websites, this proves a very efficient engagement strategy. For example, the app was installed thousands of times after the Ghorka earthquake in Nepal. Language barriers have been erased by using visual communication; for example, felt reports are collected through a set of cartoons representing different shaking levels. Within 3 weeks of the magnitude 7.8 Ghorka earthquakes, 7,000 felt reports with thousands of comments were collected related to the mainshock and tens of its aftershocks as well as 100 informative geo-located pics. The QuakeBot was essential in allowing us to be identified so well and interact with those affected. LastQuake is also a risk reduction tool since it provides rapid information. Rapid information is similar to prevention since when it does not exist, disasters can happen. When no information is available after a felt earthquake, the public block emergency lines by trying to find out the cause of the shaking, crowds form potentially leading to unpredictable crowd movement, rumors spread. In its next release LastQuake will also provide people with guidance immediately after a shaking through a number of pop-up cartoons illustrating "do/don't do" items (go to open places, do not phone emergency services except if people are injured…). LastQuake's app design is simple and intuitive and has a global audience. It benefited from a crowdfunding campaign (and the support of the Fondation MAIF) and more improvements have been planned after an online feedback campaign organized in early June with the Ghorka earthquake eyewitnesses. LastQuake is also a seismic risk reduction tools thanks to its very rapid

  18. Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

    Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus


    Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data

  19. Rethinking earthquake-related DC-ULF electromagnetic phenomena: towards a physics-based approach

    Q. Huang


    Full Text Available Numerous electromagnetic changes possibly related with earthquakes have been independently reported and have even been attempted to apply to short-term prediction of earthquakes. However, there are active debates on the above issue because the seismogenic process is rather complicated and the studies have been mainly empirical (i.e. a kind of experience-based approach. Thus, a physics-based study would be helpful for understanding earthquake-related electromagnetic phenomena and strengthening their applications. As a potential physics-based approach, I present an integrated research scheme, taking into account the interaction among observation, methodology, and physical model. For simplicity, this work focuses only on the earthquake-related DC-ULF electromagnetic phenomena. The main approach includes the following key problems: (1 how to perform a reliable and appropriate observation with some clear physical quantities; (2 how to develop a robust methodology to reveal weak earthquake-related electromagnetic signals from noisy background; and (3 how to develop plausible physical models based on theoretical analyses and/or laboratory experiments for the explanation of the earthquake-related electromagnetic signals observed in the field conditions.

  20. Attention bias in earthquake-exposed survivors: an event-related potential study.

    Zhang, Yan; Kong, Fanchang; Han, Li; Najam Ul Hasan, Abbasi; Chen, Hong


    The Chinese Wenchuan earthquake, which happened on the 28th of May in 2008, may leave deep invisible scars in individuals. China has a large number of children and adolescents, who tend to be most vulnerable because they are in an early stage of human development and possible post-traumatic psychological distress may have a life-long consequence. Trauma survivors without post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have received little attention in previous studies, especially in event-related potential (ERP) studies. We compared the attention bias to threat stimuli between the earthquake-exposed group and the control group in a masked version of the dot probe task. The target probe presented at the same space location consistent with earthquake-related words was the congruent trial, while in the space location of neutral words was the incongruent trial. Thirteen earthquake-exposed middle school students without PTSD and 13 matched controls were included in this investigation. The earthquake-exposed group showed significantly faster RTs to congruent trials than to incongruent trials. The earthquake-exposed group produced significantly shorter C1 and P1 latencies and larger C1, P1 and P2 amplitudes than the control group. In particular, enhanced P1 amplitude to threat stimuli was observed in the earthquake-exposed group. These findings are in agreement with the prediction that earthquake-exposed survivors have an attention bias to threat stimuli. The traumatic event had a much greater effect on earthquake-exposed survivors even if they showed no PTSD symptoms than individuals in the controls. These results will provide neurobiological evidences for effective intervention and prevention to post-traumatic mental problems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Slip Distribution of Two Recent Large Earthquakes in the Guerrero Segment of the Mexican Subduction Zone, and Their Relation to Previous Earthquakes, Silent Slip Events and Seismic Gaps

    Hjorleifsdottir, V.; Ji, C.; Iglesias, A.; Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Singh, S. K.


    In 2012 and 2014 mega-thrust earthquakes occurred approximately 300 km apart, in the state of Guerrero, Mexico. The westernmost half of the segment between them has not had a large earthquake in at least 100 years and most of the easternmost half last broke in 1957. However, down dip of both earthquakes, silent slip events have been reported, as well as in the gap between them (Kostoglodov et al 2003, Graham 2014). There are indications that the westernmost half has different frictional properties than the areas surrounds it. However, the two events at the edges of the zone also seem to behave in different manners, indicating a broad range of frictional properties in this area, with changes occurring over short distances. The 2012/03/20, M7.5 earthquake occurred near the Guerrero-Oaxaca border, between the towns of Ometepec (Gro.) and Pinotepa Nacional (Oax.). This earthquake is noteworthy for breaking the same asperities as two previously recorded earthquakes, the M7.2 1937 and M6.9 1982(a) earthquakes, in very large "repeating earthquakes". Furthermore, the density of repeating smaller events is larger in this zone than in other parts of the subduction zone (Dominguez et al, submitted) and this earthquake has had very many aftershocks for its size (UNAM Seis. group, 2013). The 2012 event may have broken two asperities (UNAM Seis. group, 2013). How the two asperities relate to the previous relatively smaller "large events", to the repeating earthquakes, the high number of aftershocks and to the slow slip event is not clear. The 2014/04/18 M 7.2 earthquake broke a patch on the edge of the Guerrero gap, that previously broke in the 1979 M7.4 earthquake as well as the 1943 M 7.4 earthquake. This earthquake, despite being smaller, had a much larger duration, few aftershocks and clearly ruptured two separate patches (UNAM Seis. group 2015). In this work we estimate the slip distributions for the 2012 and 2014 earthquakes, by combining the data used separately in

  2. Baseline geophysical data for hazard management in coastal areas in relation to earthquakes and tsunamis

    Murthy, K.S.R.

    to favourable seabed morphology, which in turn is the result of the faulted basement structure. Conclusion Hazard management of coastal areas requires systematic data collection and continuous monitoring of different oceanographic processes and their impact... is another factor for some of the intraplate earthquakes in the South Indian Shield, which includes the Eastern and Western Continental Margins of India. Baseline geophysical data for hazard management in coastal areas in relation to earthquakes...

  3. Plumb line variation at Tangshan during 1987―1998 and its relation with the earthquakes around


    Plumb line variations(PLV) at Tangshan during the years of 1987―1998 are determined by using the 46 batch repeated gravity observations of the Beijing-Tangshan network.It has been found that PLV at Tangshan are related with the 38 earthquakes in this period.It appears that the time of an earthquake around Tangshan is usually quite the same when PLV at Tangshan begins moving in opposite direction.

  4. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

    Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.


    The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and

  5. The Calabria - Messina earthquake of December 28, 1908: remember to reduce the risk.

    Nostro, C.; Tertulliani, A.; Pignone, M.; Pino, N. A.; de Gori, P.; Castellano, C.; Arcoraci, L.; Camassi, R.


    At 5:20 a.m., on 28th December 1908, one of the most catastrophic earthquakes in history occurred in the Messina Straits. Southern Calabria and north-eastern Sicily were severely hit: in few seconds Messina, Reggio Calabria and numerous villages on both sides of the Straits were devastated. Shortly after the earthquake a tsunami followed. Waves up to 12 meters high hit the Straits and the entire eastern Sicily coast. This is the strongest earthquake (magnitude 7.1) occurred in Italy in the twentieth century. The picture of the total damage was catastrophic: the estimated number of deaths is of around 80,000. In Messina the victims were about 60,000, corresponding to 40% of the population at the time, while in Reggio Calabria 12,000 were killed out of 45,000. To mark the centenary of this disaster, we arranged a program of different initiatives: 1) a photographic calendar with many information about the town destroyed and the tsunami effects (; 2) a special workshop for general public to reconstruct what happened 100 years ago, to understand what we know today about earthquake and seismic risk, and how we can reduce the damage caused by earthquake; 3) many EDURISK training courses for more than 500 teachers of nursery, primary and lower secondary schools in Calabria and Sicily. These courses are based on a multidisciplinary approach and the educational experiences had been fitted to the specific local environment of each school, from the geographical, historical and cultural point of view ( 4) participation in ERMES 2008's activities to improve public awareness on seismic risks. The 1908 earthquake Group and the Edurisk team: E. Baroux, R. Azzaro, G. Ricciardi, M. Crescimbene, F. La Longa,V. Pessina.

  6. A survey on changes in opioid use and risk factors in the survivors eight months after Bam earthquake

    A. Rahimi Movaghar


    Full Text Available Background: In the year 2003, an earthquake in Bam led to death and injury of many of the inhabitants. The aim of this study was to the changes in opioid drug use in the survivers eight months after the earthquake in comparison with the month before the quake and its related factors. Methods: An epidemiologic survey was carried out on 779 survivors, selected by desert sampling from the Bam citizens in the age of 15 and over. Bivariate and multivariate Logestic regression analysis were done for examining the relationship between an increase in opioid use and various factors. Results: An increase in opioid use was reported in 18.3 percent of men and 2.3 percent of women. Odds Ratio (OR for increase in opioid use was 9.4 times more in men than in women (95% CI=4.9-18.0. In men, increase in opioid use was related with the history of opioid use during the month before earthquake (OR=5.6, 95% CI=2.4-13.1, age (OR in age group 30 to 44 was 4.7 times more than age below 30, with 95% CI from 1.8 to12.1, and PTSD (OR=3.7, 95% CI=1.5-9.2. In women, it was only related to the history of opioid use during the month before earthquake (OR=43.8, 95% CI=12.5-154.0. Conclusion: The findings show that following disasters, especially in the areas or groups that drug use is common, an increase in the drug use might occur. In these situations provision of preventive and treatment interventions particularly for at risk population is necessary.

  7. Precursory pattern of tidal triggering of earthquakes in six regions of China: the possible relation to the crustal heterogeneity

    Q. Li


    Full Text Available We found the possible correlation between the precursory pattern of tidal triggering of earthquakes and the crustal heterogeneities, which is of particular importance to the researchers in earthquake prediction and earthquake hazard prevention. We investigated the connection between the tidal variations and earthquake occurrence in the Liyang, Wunansha, Cangshan, Wenan, Luquan and Yaoan regions of China. Most of the regions show a higher correlation with tidal triggering in several years preceding the large or destructive earthquakes compared to other times, indicating that the tidal triggering may inherently relate to the nucleation of the destructive earthquakes during this time. In addition, the analysis results indicate that the Liyang, Cangshan and Luquan regions, with stronger heterogeneity, show statistically significant effects of tidal triggering preceding the large or destructive earthquakes, while the Wunansha, Wenan and Yaoan regions, with relatively weak heterogeneity, show statistically insignificant effects of it, signifying that the precursory pattern of tidal triggering of earthquakes in these six regions is possibly related to the heterogeneities of the crustal rocks. The above results suggest that when people try to find the potential earthquake hazardous areas or make middle–long-term earthquake forecasting by means of precursory pattern of the tidal triggering, the crustal heterogeneity in these areas has to be taken into consideration for the purpose of increasing the prediction efficiency. If they do not consider the influence of crustal heterogeneity on the tidal triggering of earthquakes, the prediction efficiency might greatly decrease.

  8. Tidal stress triggering effects of earthquakes based on various tectonic regions in China and related astronomical characteristics

    WU XiaoPing; MAO Wei; HUANG Yong; HU Hui; HU YiLi


    Dividing the mainland Chins into different tectonic stress regions, we calculate tidal stress components along the seismic compressive and extensional principal stress axes at every earthquake's focus in different tectonic stress regions. Tidal stress triggering effect on every earthquake fault is analyzed. Based on this, the lunar-solar location parameters on the occurring times of earthquakes which suf-fered tidal triggering effects are calculated, and the distribution patterns of the lunar-solar location parameters in different tectonic stress regions are obtained. The results Indicate that earthquake tidal triggering effects and related astronomical characteristics are dependent on the properties of regional tectonic stress and the geographic locations of earthquake faults.

  9. Seismic Microzonation Study in Tabriz Metropolitan City for Earthquake Risk Mitigation x

    Ebad Ghanbari


    Full Text Available Azerbaijan is the site of convergent plate collisions along the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Brittle faults in the Azerbaijan area are mostly Cenozoic in or younger. The data presented demonstrate clearly that geological structures are commonly repeated at all scales from outcrop to regional. Several regional earthquakes have been strongly felt and caused damages in and around Tabriz during history. Urban seismic risk is increasing with population growth and encroachment of vulnerable built in environment into areas susceptible seismic hazard. Seismic -hazard assessment an estimate of ground motion at the site of interest, taking into account instrumental and historical earthquake records, information on tectonics, geology, and attenuation characteristics of seismic waves Tabriz is important industrial city of Iran. It has a very high population density about 2.000000 people in area just 90 km2 . The main objective of the Tabriz seismic instrumentation and microzonation study was to carry out and propose new building in Tabriz and suburbs in order to apply these criteria its development programs and determine the potential for damage to existing constructions during earthquake motions, and finally earthquake risk mitigation assessment.

  10. Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.


    We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

  11. Prevalence and risk factors of post-traumatic stress disorder among adult survivors six months after the Wenchuan earthquake.

    Zhou, Xiaobo; Kang, Lin; Sun, Xueli; Song, Hui; Mao, Wenjun; Huang, Xuanyin; Zhang, Yinghui; Li, Jing


    Exposure to earthquake has been associated with psychological distress, in particular, the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence of PTSD, explore the associated risk factors among adult survivors 6 months after the Wenchuan earthquake in China, and compare the findings in our study to other studies about the Wenchuan earthquake and other earthquakes that occurred in the past. Multistage stratified random sampling methods were conducted in three severely affected areas in the Wenchuan earthquake. In this study, 14,798 individuals were identified with simple random selection methods at the sampling sites, 14,207 individuals were screened with the 12-item General Health Questionnaire(GHQ-12), and 3692 individuals were administered a Chinese version of the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM)-IV axis I disorders (SCID-I/P) by 180 psychiatrists. The prevalence of PTSD was 15.57%. The risk factors for PTSD included old age, female gender, living alone, buried in the earthquake, injured in the earthquake, operated on after the earthquake, witnessing someone get injured in the earthquake, witnessing someone get buried in the earthquake, witnessing someone die in the earthquake (P<0.05, 95% CI). PTSD is common after a major disaster. Risk factors help people to identify the potential victims after disasters in time. Post-disaster mental health recovery interventions include early identification, sustained psychosocial support, governmental programs that provide social and economic support. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. The earthquake disaster risk characteristic and the problem in the earthquake emergency rescue of mountainous southwestern Sichuan

    Yuan, S.; Xin, C.; Ying, Z.


    In recent years, earthquake disaster occurred frequently in Chinese mainland, the secondary disaster which have been caused by it is more serious in mountainous region. Because of the influence of terrain and geological conditions, the difficulty of earthquake emergency rescue work greatly increased, rescue force is also urged. Yet, it has been studied less on earthquake emergency rescue in mountainous region, the research in existing equipment whether can meet the actual needs of local earthquake emergency rescue is poorly. This paper intends to discuss and solve these problems. Through the mountainous regions Ganzi and Liangshan states in Sichuan field research, we investigated the process of earthquake emergency response and the projects for rescue force after an earthquake, and we also collected and collated local rescue force based data. By consulting experts and statistical analyzing the basic data, there are mainly two problems: The first is about local rescue force, they are poorly equipped and lack in the knowledge of medical help or identify architectural structure. There are no countries to establish a sound financial investment protection mechanism. Also, rescue equipment's updates and maintenance; The second problem is in earthquake emergency rescue progress. In the complicated geologic structure of mountainous regions, traffic and communication may be interrupted by landslides and mud-rock flows after earthquake. The outside rescue force may not arrive in time, rescue equipment was transported by manpower. Because of unknown earthquake disaster information, the local rescue force was deployed unreasonable. From the above, the local government worker should analyze the characteristics of the earthquake disaster in mountainous regions, and research how to improve their earthquake emergency rescue ability. We think they can do that by strengthening and regulating the rescue force structure, enhancing the skills and knowledge, training rescue workers

  13. Health Status and Risk Factors among Adolescent Survivors One Month after the 2014 Ludian Earthquake

    Bihan Tang


    Full Text Available Background: An earthquake struck Ludian in Yunnan Province (China on 3 August 2014, resulting in 3143 injuries, 617 deaths, and 112 missing persons. Our study aimed at estimating the health status and associated determinants among adolescent survivors after the Ludian earthquake. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 845 was conducted at the Ludian No. 1 Middle School. Descriptive statistics, t-tests, ANOVA and stepwise linear regression analysis were used for data analysis. Results: The mean scores on the physical component summary (PCS and mental component summary (MCS were 46.23 (SD = 7.10 and 36.34 (SD = 7.09, respectively. Lower PCS scores in the aftermath of an earthquake were associated with being trapped or in danger, being female, being an ethnic minority, injury to self and house damage, while lower MSC scores were associated with fear during the earthquake, Han ethnicity, death in the family, not being involved in the rescue and low household income. Conclusions: In our study, significant associations between demographic, socio-economic, and trauma-related experiences variables and overall physical and mental health of adolescent survivors were presented. The results of this study help expand our knowledge of health status among adolescent survivors after the Ludian earthquake.

  14. A stochastic risk assessment for Eastern Europe and Central Asian countries for earthquakes

    Daniell, James; Schaefer, Andreas; Toro, Joaquin; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Simpson, Alanna; Saito, Keiko; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip


    This systematic assessment of earthquake risk for 33 countries in the ECA region was motivated by the interest of the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) in supporting Disaster Risk Management (DRM) efforts. They envisaged an exposure-based analysis that looked at the potential economic and/or social exposure of the populations of various countries to earthquake risk. Using a stochastic earthquake hazard model and historical catalogues, a unified earthquake catalogue was created for the 33 countries. A combined fault and background source model was created using data from many authors. The maximum magnitude and seismotectonic source zone discretization was undertaken using logic tree approaches. Site effects were taken into account on the basis of local topography and tectonic regime. Two approaches were used to calculate local ground motion - intensity prediction equations for MMI and a combination of GMPEs for stable and active settings. A 1km grid was used for analysis with aggregations of exposure quantified in terms of GDP and capital stock using disaggregated provincial analysis from CATDAT, as well as population data from Deltares. Vulnerability functions were calculated using socio-economic empirical functions derived by Daniell (2014) for the countries taking into account historical losses, seismic resistant code implementation and building typologies in each country. PML curves were created for each province in the 33 nations, through 3 methods; the 1st using direct historical values via the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database; the 2nd using normalization procedures in order to provide a quick estimate of the historical record quantified in today's terms filling in gaps; and the 3rd being a traditional stochastic modelling approach over a period of 10,000 years taking all uncertainties into account. SSP projections of growth from the OECD were used to quantify the risk in 2010, 2030 and 2080 in order to examine

  15. Scaling relation between earthquake magnitude and the departure time from P wave similar growth

    Noda, Shunta; Ellsworth, William L.


    We introduce a new scaling relation between earthquake magnitude (M) and a characteristic of initial P wave displacement. By examining Japanese K-NET data averaged in bins partitioned by Mw and hypocentral distance, we demonstrate that the P wave displacement briefly displays similar growth at the onset of rupture and that the departure time (Tdp), which is defined as the time of departure from similarity of the absolute displacement after applying a band-pass filter, correlates with the final M in a range of 4.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 7. The scaling relation between Mw and Tdp implies that useful information on the final M can be derived while the event is still in progress because Tdp occurs before the completion of rupture. We conclude that the scaling relation is important not only for earthquake early warning but also for the source physics of earthquakes.

  16. The Great Eastern Japan Earthquake and Tsunami: Facts and implications for flood risk management

    Tsimopoulou, V.


    The Great Eastern Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of March 11, 2011 can be characterized as a catastrophe. It inundated over 560 km2 of land, devastating a large number of coastal communities, causing over 19,000 casualties and huge economic damage in the Tohoku region. Due to the relatively high frequ

  17. Magnetic storm free ULF analysis in relation with earthquakes in Taiwan

    S. Wen


    Full Text Available Despite early optimism, pre-earthquake anomalous phenomena can be determined by using enhanced amplitude at the ultra-low-frequency range from geomagnetic data via the Fourier transform. In reality, accuracy of the enhanced amplitude in relation to earthquakes (deduced from time-varied geomagnetic data would be damaged by magnetic storms and/or other unwanted influences resulting from solar activity and/or variations in the ionosphere, respectively. We substitute values of the cross correlation between amplitudes, summarized from the earthquake-related (0.1–0.01 Hz and the comparable (0.01–0.001 Hz frequency bands, for isolated amplitude enhancements as indexes of determination associated with seismo-magnetic anomalies to mitigate disturbance caused by magnetic storms. A station located about 300 km away from the others is also taken into account to further examine whether changes of the cross correlation values are caused by seismo-magnetic anomalies limited within local regions or not. Analytical results show that the values suddenly decrease near epicenters a few days before and after 67% (= 6/9 of earthquakes (M > = 5 in Taiwan between September 2010 and March 2011. Seismo-magnetic signals determined by using the values of cross correlation methods partially improve results yielded from the Fourier transform alone and provide advantageous information of earthquake locations.

  18. Earthquakes and related catastrophic events, Island of Hawaii, November 29, 1975; a preliminary report

    Tilling, Robert I.; Koyanagi, R.Y.; Lipman, P.W.; Lockwood, J.P.; Moore, J.G.; Swanson, D.A.


    The largest earthquake in over a century--magnitude 7.2 on the Richter Scale--struck Hawaii the morning of November 29, 1975, at 0448. It was centered about 5 km beneath the Kalapana area on the southeastern coast of the island at 19? 20.1 ' N., long 155? 01.4 ' W.). The earthquake was preceded by numerous foreshocks, the largest of which was a 5.7-magnitude jolt at 0336 the same morning, and was accompanied, or closely followed, by a tsunami seismic sea wave), massive ground movements, hundreds of aftershocks, and a volcanic eruption. The tsunami reached a height of 12.2-14.6 m above sea level on the southeastern coast about 25 km west of the earthquake center, elsewhere generally 8 m or less. The south flank of Kilauea Volcano, which forms the southeastern part of the island, was deformed by dislocations along old and new faults along a 25-km long zone. Downward and seaward fault displacements resulted in widespread subsidence, locally as much as 3.5 m, leaving coconut palms standing in the sea and nearly submerging a small, near-shore island. A brief, small-volume volcanic eruption, triggered by the earthquake and associated ground movements occurred at Kilauea's summit about three-quarters of an hour later. The earthquake, together with the tsunami it generated, locally caused severe property damage in the southeastern part of the island; the tsunami also caused two deaths. Damage from the earthquake and related catastrophic events is estimated by the Hawaii Civil Defense Agency at about $4.1 million. The 1975 Kalapana earthquake and accompanying events represent the latest events in a recurring pattern of behavior for Kilauea. A large earthquake of about the same magnitude, tsunami, subsidence, and eruption occurred at Kilauea in 1868, and a less powerful earthquake and similar related processes are believed to have occurred in 1823. Indeed, the geologic evidence suggests that such events have been repeated many times in Kilauea's past and will continue. The

  19. Keeping focus on earthquakes at school for seismic risk mitigation of the next generations

    Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura


    The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students

  20. Assessment of the Relative Largest Earthquake Hazard Level in the NW Himalaya and its Adjacent Region

    Tsapanos, Theodoros M.; Yadav, R. B. S.; Olasoglou, Efthalia M.; Singh, Mayshree


    In the present study, the level of the largest earthquake hazard is assessed in 28 seismic zones of the NW Himalaya and its vicinity, which is a highly seismically active region of the world. Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution (hereafter as GIII) is adopted for the evaluation of the largest earthquake magnitudes in these seismic zones. Instead of taking in account any type of Mmax, in the present study we consider the ω value which is the largest earthquake magnitude that a region can experience according to the GIII statistics. A function of the form Θ(ω, RP6.0) is providing in this way a relatively largest earthquake hazard scale defined by the letter K(K index). The return periods for the ω values (earthquake magnitudes) 6 or larger (RP6.0) are also calculated. According to this index, the investigated seismic zones are classified into five groups and it is shown that seismic zones 3 (Quetta of Pakistan), 11 (Hindukush), 15 (northern Pamirs), and 23 (Kangra, Himachal Pradesh of India) correspond to a "very high" K index which is 6.

  1. Earthquake risk reduction in the United States: An assessment of selected user needs and recommendations for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program



    This Assessment was conducted to improve the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by providing NEHRP agencies with information that supports their user-oriented setting of crosscutting priorities in the NEHRP strategic planning process. The primary objective of this Assessment was to take a ``snapshot`` evaluation of the needs of selected users throughout the major program elements of NEHRP. Secondary objectives were to conduct an assessment of the knowledge that exists (or is being developed by NEHRP) to support earthquake risk reduction, and to begin a process of evaluating how NEHRP is meeting user needs. An identification of NEHRP`s strengths also resulted from the effort, since those strengths demonstrate successful methods that may be useful to NEHRP in the future. These strengths are identified in the text, and many of them represent important achievements since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act was passed in 1977.

  2. Study on correlativity among some seismological prediction indexes related to earthquake frequency or energy


    Correlation among various seismological prediction indexes related to earthquake frequency N or energy E for describing seismicity changes is studied by seismic data of 11 seismic zones (areas) in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. A statistical test for correlativity shows that seismicity indexes obtained from transformation of earthquake fre-quency N or energy E have correlation to a certain extent while they are used to describe seismicity changes. If the transformation is linear in all cases, the correlation coefficient is equal to 1. The smaller the transformation devia-tion from linearity, the bigger the correlation coefficient is.

  3. Seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

    Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia


    Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. Any kind of risk estimates R(g) at location g results from a convolution of the natural hazard H(g) with the exposed object under consideration O(g) along with its vulnerability V(O(g)). Note that g could be a point, or a line, or a cell on or under the Earth surface and that distribution of hazards, as well as objects of concern and their vulnerability, could be time-dependent. There exist many different risk estimates even if the same object of risk and the same hazard are involved. It may result from the different laws of convolution, as well as from different kinds of vulnerability of an object of risk under specific environments and conditions. Both conceptual issues must be resolved in a multidisciplinary problem oriented research performed by specialists in the fields of hazard, objects of risk, and object vulnerability, i.e. specialists in earthquake engineering, social sciences and economics. To illustrate this general concept, we first construct seismic hazard assessment maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE). The parameters A, B, and C of USLE, i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an area of linear size L, are used to estimate the expected maximum

  4. The escaping "pneuma" - gas of ancient earthquake concepts in relation to animal, atmospheric and thermal precursors

    Helmut, Tributsch


    The escaping "pneuma" - gas of ancient earthquake concepts in relation to animal, atmospheric and thermal precursors Helmut Tributsch Present affiliation: Carinthian University for Applied Sciences, Bio-mimetics program, Europastrasse 4, 9524 Villach, Austria, Retired from: Free University Berlin, Institute for physical and theoretical chemistry, Takustr. 3, 14195 Berlin, Germany. For two thousand years ancient European and medieval (including islamic) natural philosophers have considered a dry, warm gas, the "pneuma" ( breath, exhalation), escaping from the earth, as precursor and trigger of earthquakes. Also in China an escaping gas or breath (the qi) was considered the cause of earthquake, first in a document from 780 BC. We know today that escaping gas is not causing earthquakes. But it may be that natural phenomena that supported such a pneuma-concept have again and again been observed. The unpolluted environment and the largely absence of distracting artificial stimuli may have allowed the recognition of distinct earthquake precursors, such as described by ancient observers: (1) the sun becomes veiled and has a dim appearance, turns reddish or dark (2) a narrow long stretched cloud becomes visible, like a line drawn by a ruler, (3) earthquakes preceded by a thin streak of cloud stretching over a wide space. (4) earthquakes in the morning sometimes preceded by a still and a strong frost, (5) a surf - line of the air sea is forming (near the horizon). The described phenomena may be interpreted as a kind of smog forming above the ground prior to an earthquake, a smog exhaled from the ground, which is triggering water condensation, releasing latent heat, changing visibility, temperature, heat conduction and radiation properties. This could perfectly match the phenomenon, which is at the origin of satellite monitored temperature anomalies preceding earthquakes. Based on a few examples it will be shown that the time window of temperature

  5. Factors related to furniture anchoring: a method for reducing harm during earthquakes.

    Haraoka, Tomoko; Hayasaka, Shinya; Murata, Chiyoe; Yamaoka, Taiji; Ojima, Toshiyuki


    Fatalities and injuries during an earthquake can be reduced by taking preemptive measures before-hand, and furniture anchoring is an important safety measure for all residents. This study sought to clarify the factors associated with furniture anchoring within the home. A self-administered mail survey was completed from July to August 2010 by 3500 men and women between the ages of 20 and 69 years who were chosen at random from an official government resident registry of 2 cities in Japan. Of the 1729 valid responses, 37.1% reported furniture anchoring. An association with furniture anchoring was observed for having viewed earthquake intensity maps or damage predictions (odds ratio [OR] 1.92, 95% C1 1.54-2.39), expressing concern about a future earthquake (OR 2.07, 95% C1 1.36-3.15), feelings of urgency (OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.47-2.45), accuracy of the government disaster preparedness information (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.17-2.42), knowledge of the meaning of emergency earthquake warnings (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.12-2.48), and participation in voluntary disaster preparedness activities (OR 1.40, 95% C1 1.12-1.75). Furniture anchoring was found to be associated with risk awareness, risk perception, disaster preparedness information provided by government to residents, knowledge of earthquakes, participation in voluntary disaster preparedness activities, nonwooden structures, and marital status. An increase in furniture anchoring is important and can be achieved through education and training in daily life.

  6. Employment relations, flexibility and risk

    Jensen, Carsten Strøby

    Employment relations literature often distinguishes between social democratic/corporatist models of employment relations and liberal models of employment relations as they are seen as opposite or at least different ways of organizing labor markets. They are often characterized as having very...... different risk profiles in terms of relationships between employees, employers, and the state. Low levels of labor market regulation very often characterize the liberal models of employment relations as we know them from, for instance, the USA and the UK. This means that employment conditions are very often...... insecure and that the burden of unemployment risk mostly lies with the employees rather than the employer. Corporatist – or social democratic – employment relations models are, in contrast to the liberal models, often characterized by stricter regulation of the labor market and by high standards...

  7. Predicted Attenuation Relation and Observed Ground Motion of Gorkha Nepal Earthquake of 25 April 2015

    Singh, R. P.; Ahmad, R.


    A comparison of recent observed ground motion parameters of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 (Mw 7.8) with the predicted ground motion parameters using exitsing attenuation relation of the Himalayan region will be presented. The recent earthquake took about 8000 lives and destroyed thousands of poor quality of buildings and the earthquake was felt by millions of people living in Nepal, China, India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. The knowledge of ground parameters are very important in developing seismic code of seismic prone regions like Himalaya for better design of buildings. The ground parameters recorded in recent earthquake event and aftershocks are compared with attenuation relations for the Himalayan region, the predicted ground motion parameters show good correlation with the observed ground parameters. The results will be of great use to Civil engineers in updating existing building codes in the Himlayan and surrounding regions and also for the evaluation of seismic hazards. The results clearly show that the attenuation relation developed for the Himalayan region should be only used, other attenuation relations based on other regions fail to provide good estimate of observed ground motion parameters.

  8. The adolescent emotional coping after an earthquake: a risk factor for suicidal ideation.

    Stratta, Paolo; Capanna, Cristina; Carmassi, Claudia; Patriarca, Sara; Di Emidio, Gabriella; Riccardi, Ilaria; Collazzoni, Alberto; Dell'Osso, Liliana; Rossi, Alessandro


    The study aims to investigate the relationship of suicidal ideation with coping and resilience in a sample of adolescents who survived an earthquake. Three hundred forty-three adolescents who had experienced the L'Aquila earthquake were investigated for a screening distinguishing Suicidal Screen-Negative (SSN) from the Positive (SSP) subjects. Resilience Scale for Adolescents (READ) and Brief Cope were administered. Emotion-focused coping score was significantly higher in SSP subjects. In the SSN but not in the SSP sample the READ total score correlated with problem-focused total score. A positive correlation was seen between emotion-focused and problem-focused scores in both samples, with a higher coefficient in SSP sample. Externalising problems and maladaptive behaviours can arise in adolescents exposed to traumatic events. Attention should be paid in reducing risk factors and in the development of psychological abilities, improving the coping strategies that can protect from emotional despair and suicidal ideation.

  9. Earthquake Risk - MO 2010 Tectonic Fault Structures (SHP)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — The data set contains line data for known structural features in the state of Missouri. These include faults, folds, and other related tectonic structures. Source...

  10. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.


    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  11. Study on Relation Between Dynamic Pattern of Regional Vertical Strain Rate and Several Strong Earthquakes such as Lijiang (Ms7. 0) and Menyuan (Ms6.4) Earthquakes

    Wang Shuangxu; Jiang Zaisen; Zhang Xi; Chen Bing


    Making use of the method of obtaining regional vertical strain rate from regional preciseleveling data and gaining dynamic pattern combining with deformation data on spanningfaults, the regional vertical strain dynamic evolution characteristics of several moderatelystrong earthquakes such as Lijiang ( Ms 7.0) and Menyuan ( Ms 6.4) earthquakes occurredin crustal deformation monitoring areas located in the western Yunnan and Qilianshan-Hexiregion. Based on the above-mentioned facts, by studying the time-space nonhomogeneity andstrain energy accumulation status, some criteria for judging the medium- and short-termstrong seismic risk regions according to the regional vertical strain rate dynamic informationare proposed.

  12. Recognition of earthquake-related damage in archaeological sites: Examples from the Dead Sea fault zone

    Marco, Shmuel


    Archaeological structures that exhibit seismogenic damage expand our knowledge of temporal and spatial distribution of earthquakes, afford independent examination of historical accounts, provide information on local earthquake intensities and enable the delineation of macroseismic zones. They also illustrate what might happen in future earthquakes. In order to recover this information, we should be able to distinguish earthquake damage from anthropogenic damage and from other natural processes of wear and tear. The present paper reviews several types of damage that can be attributed with high certainty to earthquakes and discusses associated caveats. In the rare cases, where faults intersect with archaeological sites, offset structures enable precise determination of sense and size of slip, and constrain its time. Among the characteristic off-fault damage types, I consider horizontal shifting of large building blocks, downward sliding of one or several blocks from masonry arches, collapse of heavy, stably-built walls, chipping of corners of building blocks, and aligned falling of walls and columns. Other damage features are less conclusive and require additional evidence, e.g., fractures that cut across several structures, leaning walls and columns, warps and bulges in walls. Circumstantial evidence for catastrophic earthquake-related destruction includes contemporaneous damage in many sites in the same area, absence of weapons or other anthropogenic damage, stratigraphic data on collapse of walls and ceilings onto floors and other living horizons and burial of valuable artifacts, as well as associated geological palaeoseismic phenomena such as liquefaction, land- and rock-slides, and fault ruptures. Additional support may be found in reliable historical accounts. Special care must be taken in order to avoid circular reasoning by maintaining the independence of data acquisition methods.

  13. Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

    Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.


    relevant historical cyclones and on the simulation of the associated wave and cyclonic surge. The combined local sea elevations, called "set-up", are then fitted with a statistical distribution in order to obtain its time return characteristics. Several run-ups are then extracted, the inundation areas are calculated and the relative losses of the affected assets are deduced. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and the exposed elements location and seismic vulnerability result from past public risk assessment studies. The loss estimations are computed for several return time periods, measured in percentage of buildings being in a given EMS-98 damage state per grid block, which are then converted into loss ratio. In parallel, an asset estimation is conducted. It is mainly focused on private housing, but it considers some major public infrastructures as well. The final outcome of this work is a direct economic loss-frequency plot for earthquake and storm surge. The Probable Maximum Loss and the Average Annual Loss derivate from this risk curve. In addition, different sources of uncertainty are identified through the loss estimation process. The full propagation of these uncertainties can provide an interval of confidence, which can be assigned to the risk-curve and we show how such additional information can be useful for risk comparison.

  14. Reproductive health and access to healthcare facilities: risk factors for depression and anxiety in women with an earthquake experience

    Shadoul Ahmed


    Full Text Available Abstract Background The reproductive and mental health of women contributes significantly to their overall well-being. Three of the eight Millennium Development Goals are directly related to reproductive and sexual health while mental disorders make up three of the ten leading causes of disease burden in low and middle-income countries. Among mental disorders, depression and anxiety are two of the most prevalent. In the context of slower progress in achieving Millennium Development Goals in developing countries and the ever-increasing man-made and natural disasters in these areas, it is important to understand the association between reproductive health and mental health among women with post-disaster experiences. Methods This was a cross-sectional study with a sample of 387 women of reproductive age (15-49 years randomly selected from the October 2005 earthquake affected areas of Pakistan. Data on reproductive health was collected using the Centers for Disease Control reproductive health assessment toolkit. Depression and anxiety were measured using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25, while earthquake experiences were captured using the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire. The association of either depression or anxiety with socio-demographic variables, earthquake experiences, reproductive health and access to health facilities was estimated using multivariate logistic regression. Results Post-earthquake reproductive health events together with economic deprivation, lower family support and poorer access to health care facilities explained a significant proportion of differences in the experiencing of clinical levels of depression and anxiety. For instance, women losing resources for subsistence, separation from family and experiencing reproductive health events such as having a stillbirth, having had an abortion, having had abnormal vaginal discharge or having had genital ulcers, were at significant risk of depression and anxiety. Conclusion The

  15. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    J. R. Holliday


    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  16. Applications of research from the U.S. Geological Survey program, assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

    Gori, Paula L.


    engineering studies. Translated earthquake hazard maps have also been developed to identify areas that are particularly vulnerable to various causes of damage such as ground shaking, surface rupturing, and liquefaction. The implementation of earthquake hazard reduction plans are now under way in various communities in Utah. The results of a survey presented in this paper indicate that technical public officials (planners and building officials) have an understanding of the earthquake hazards and how to mitigate the risks. Although the survey shows that the general public has a slightly lower concern about the potential for economic losses, they recognize the potential problems and can support a number of earthquake mitigation measures. The study suggests that many community groups along the Wasatch Front, including volunteer groups, business groups, and elected and appointed officials, are ready for action-oriented educational programs. These programs could lead to a significant reduction in the risks associated with earthquake hazards. A DATA BASE DESIGNED FOR URBAN SEISMIC HAZARDS STUDIES: A computerized data base has been designed for use in urban seismic hazards studies conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. The design includes file structures for 16 linked data sets, which contain geological, geophysical, and seismological data used in preparing relative ground response maps of large urban areas. The data base is organized along relational data base principles. A prototype urban hazards data base has been created for evaluation in two urban areas currently under investigation: the Wasatch Front region of Utah and the Puget Sound area of Washington. The initial implementation of the urban hazards data base was accomplished on a microcomputer using dBASE III Plus software and transferred to minicomputers and a work station. A MAPPING OF GROUND-SHAKING INTENSITIES FOR SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH: This paper documents the development of maps showing a

  17. Fleeing to Fault Zones: Incorporating Syrian Refugees into Earthquake Risk Analysis along the East Anatolian and Dead Sea Rift Fault Zones

    Wilson, B.; Paradise, T. R.


    The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian Fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into cities, towns, and villages—placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong shaking. Yet, displaced populations are not traditionally captured in data sources used in earthquake risk analysis or loss estimations. Accordingly, we present a district-level analysis assessing the spatial overlap of earthquake hazards and refugee locations in southeastern Turkey to determine how migration patterns are altering seismic risk in the region. Using migration estimates from the U.S. Humanitarian Information Unit, we create three district-level population scenarios that combine official population statistics, refugee camp populations, and low, median, and high bounds for integrated refugee populations. We perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alongside these population scenarios to map spatial variations in seismic risk between 2011 and late 2015. Our results show a significant relative southward increase of seismic risk for this period due to refugee migration. Additionally, we calculate earthquake fatalities for simulated earthquakes using a semi-empirical loss estimation technique to determine degree of under-estimation resulting from forgoing migration data in loss modeling. We find that including refugee populations increased casualties by 11-12% using median population estimates, and upwards of 20% using high population estimates. These results communicate the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context which unites physical, political, cultural, and socio-economic landscapes. Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards, Loss-Estimation, Syrian Crisis, Migration

  18. Historical Earthquake scenario and Seismic risk for Big Cities in Georgia

    Tsereteli, Nino; Varazanashvili, Otar; Alania, Victor; Gventsadze, Aleksander; Kvavadze, Nino


    The study and detailed analysis of the original documents and researches have allowed us to create a new catalog of historical earthquakes of Georgia from 1250 BC to 1900 AD. Recalculation catalog of instrumental period from 1900 up to now together with new historical catalog allowed us to investigate completeness of earthquake catalog. Estimation fault plane solution, new data from seismic profiles for big cities of Georgia allowed to constrain new seismic sources in large scale. Investigation of seismic parameters for seismic hazard as depth distribution, seismic rate, Mmax and b value on one side and new detail data of active faults gave us possibility to run strong historical earthquake scenario and estimate of ground shaking map for these sites. For calculation of shaking map we used empirical ground motion model that was developed for PGA and SA at selected periods for Georgia. Some local investigation of site was done that allow to estimate such parameters as dominant frequency and amplification factor. Investigation of inventory map of element at risk allows us estimate social and economic losses for large cities.

  19. Characteristics and interactions between non-volcanic tremor and related slow earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone, southwest Japan

    Obara, Kazushige


    Non-volcanic tremor and related slow earthquakes in subduction zones are one of the most significant and exciting geophysical discoveries of the 21st century. In Japan, some types of slow earthquakes associated with subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate have been detected by dense seismic and geodetic observation networks equipped with continuous data-recording systems. At the deepest part of the transition between the Nankai megathrust seismogenic zone and the deep stable sliding zone, short-term slow slip events (SSE) occur on the plate interface with durations of days, accompanied by tremor and deep very-low-frequency (VLF) earthquakes resulting from interplate shear stick-slip motions. Along-strike source regions of tremor are divided into segments where these three coupling phenomena (tremor, short-term SSEs, and deep VLF earthquakes) occur at regular recurrence intervals, with durations of 2-6 months. On the updip side of the tremor zone, long-term SSEs with durations of years occur at intervals of 5-10 yrs and trigger tremor at the downdip part of the source region of long-term slip. Near the Nankai trough, shallow VLF earthquakes occur in the accretionary prism. At the eastern edge of the subducting Philippine Sea Plate, short-term SSEs recur every 6 yrs, associated with active earthquake swarms. Some of these slow earthquakes have been detected in other subduction zones; however, the properties of each constituent member of slow earthquakes are different in each subduction zone. Slow earthquakes represent transient shear slip around the seismogenic portion of major interplate megathrust faults; therefore, monitoring the relationship between slow earthquakes and interplate megathrust earthquakes is important for intermediate- and long-term predictions of the next major earthquake.

  20. Intermediate-Depth Intraplate Strike-Slip Earthquake Along the Subducted Nazca Plate: Stress Conditions Related to Flat-Slab Transition Zone?

    Carrizo, D.; Peyrat, S.; Comte, D.; Boroschek, R.


    On October 11th, 2012 an strike-slip intraplate earthquake Mw=5.6 occurred at about 15 km NE of Santiago-Chile, at 107 km depth. This earthquake had a distribution of intensities of about VI MM, around Santiago region. In the past only few similar seismic events had been occurred, the majority of them without reported intensities. The location, the focal mechanism, and the depth of this earthquake, make it particularly interesting because the processes responsible for this kind of ruptures is still an open question. Moreover, it was also recorded by a local strong motion networks, allowing for the first time the possibility to study this kind of earthquakes using seismic and accelerographic data. We study the nature of this event using the aftershocks recorded by the Chilean Seismological Network and with a joint inversion of local strong-motion and teleseimic data, to understand the kinematic of rupture. Preliminary results suggest a singular stress condition in the subducted plate related to the transition from flat to normal subduction, which could be accommodated by strike-slip faulting. The strong motion analysis reveals high horizontal accelerations in agreement with high angle fault planes. Understand the tectonic setting associated to this type of earthquakes represents a relevant goal for seismic risk evaluation in the most populated Chilean region.

  1. Association between relocation and changes in cardiometabolic risk factors: a longitudinal study in tsunami survivors of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake


    Objectives The aim of this study is to determine changes in atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk factors with and without serious disaster-related mental and socioeconomic problems represented by relocation (REL). Design A longitudinal survey. Setting Multiphasic health check-ups for the general population affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Participants A total 6528 disaster survivors in heavily tsunami-damaged municipalities were recruited. Two sequential surveys we...

  2. Violation of the scaling relation and non-Markovian nature of earthquake aftershocks

    Abe, Sumiyoshi


    The statistical properties of earthquake aftershocks are studied. The scaling relation for the exponents of the Omori law and the power-law calm time distribution (i.e., the interoccurrence time distribution), which is valid if a sequence of aftershocks is a singular Markovian process, is carefully examined. Data analysis shows significant violation of the scaling relation, implying the non-Markovian nature of aftershocks.

  3. Risk Communication on Earthquake Prediction Studies -"No L'Aquila quake risk" experts probed in Italy in June 2010

    Oki, S.; Koketsu, K.; Kuwabara, E.; Tomari, J.


    For the previous 6 months from the L'Aquila earthquake which occurred on 6th April 2009, the seismicity in that region had been active. Having become even more active and reached to magnitude 4 earthquake on 30th March, the government held Major Risks Committee which is a part of the Civil Protection Department and is tasked with forecasting possible risks by collating and analyzing data from a variety of sources and making preventative recommendations. At the press conference immediately after the committee, they reported that "The scientific community tells us there is no danger, because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favorable." 6 days later, a magunitude 6.3 earthquake attacked L'Aquila and killed 308 people. On 3rd June next year, the prosecutors opened the investigation after complaints of the victims that far more people would have fled their homes that night if there had been no reassurances of the Major Risks Committee the previous week. This issue becomes widely known to the seismological society especially after an email titled "Letter of Support for Italian Earthquake Scientists" from seismologists at the National Geophysics and Volcanology Institute (INGV) sent worldwide. It says that the L'Aquila Prosecutors office indicted of manslaughter the members of the Major Risks Committee and that the charges are for failing to provide a short term alarm to the population before the earthquake struck. It is true that there is no generalized method to predict earthquakes but failing the short term alarm is not the reason for the investigation of the scientists. The chief prosecutor stated that "the committee could have provided the people with better advice", and "it wasn't the case that they did not receive any warnings, because there had been tremors". The email also requests sign-on support for the open letter to the president of Italy from Earth sciences colleagues from all over the world and collected more than 5000 signatures

  4. Observed and estimated economic losses in Guadeloupe (French Antilles) after Les Saintes Earthquake (2004). Application to risk comparison

    Monfort, Daniel; Reveillère, Arnaud; Lecacheux, Sophie; Muller, Héloise; Grisanti, Ludovic; Baills, Audrey; Bertil, Didier; Sedan, Olivier; Tinard, Pierre


    (industry, commerce and tourism), even if in these municipalities intensities were quite smaller (V to VI in EMS98 scale). It seems that damage scenario cannot consider completely this situation and the greater complexity of industrial and commercial areas. The next work is to compare seismic risk and storm surge risk in a little scale (for 3 municipalities in Pointe à Pitre area, the capital of Guadeloupe), in terms of potential direct economic losses for different return periods. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Seismic hazard assessment was done for return periods of 100, 475, 1000 and 5000 years. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of relevant historical cyclones and on the simulation of the associated wave and cyclonic surge. The combined local sea elevations, called "set-up", are then fitted with a statistical distribution in order to obtain its time return characteristics. Several run-ups are then extracted, the inundation areas are calculated and the relative losses of the affected assets are deduced. Current building vulnerability was adapted for each single risk, vulnerability indices (RISK-UE method) for seismic risk and vulnerability functions for storm surge. State of art of available vulnerability functions in storm surge and floods in tropical context has been done (CAPRA software, HAZUS software) even if these functions do not consider explicitly the local context in Guadeloupe. Damages caused by wind are not considered. The past storm surge events in French Antilles data are not enough to build new vulnerability functions. The results have been achieved in the project MATRIX (, funded by the European Commission in the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013), under grant agreement n° 265138.

  5. The 40 anniversary of the 1976 Friuli earthquake: a look back for empowering the next generation to the reduction of seismic risk

    Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura


    On 6 May 1976 an Ms=6.5 earthquake struck the Friuli area (NE Italy), causing about 1,000 casualties, and widespread destruction. Such event is the largest so far recorded in Northern Italy. After 40 years, the memory of a devastating earthquake remains in the urbanization, and in the people that lived that dreadful experience. However, the memories tend to vanish with the quake survivors demise and the celebration of the anniversary become a good opportunity to refresh the earthquake history, and the awareness of living in a seismic prone area. As seismologists, we believe that the seismic risk reduction starts from the education of the next generation. For this reason, we decided to celebrate the 40 anniversary planning a special educational campaign, mainly devoted to the schools and the young people, but it will give us the opportunity to check and, if necessary to raise, the level of seismic awareness of the local communities. The activities started on May 2015, with labs and lessons held in some schools, and the creation of a blog ( to collect news, photos, video and all the materials related to the campaign. From February to May 2016, one day per week, we will open our seismological lab to the school visits, so that students can meet the seismologists, and we will cooperate with local science museums to enlarge the training offers on the earthquake topics. By continuing the efforts of our previous educational projects, the students of a school located in Gemona del Friuli, one of the small town destroyed by the 1976 earthquake, will be deeply involved in experimental activities, like seismic noise measurements for microzonation studies, so to be an active part of the seismic mitigation process. This and some other activities developed for the celebration of the 40 anniversary of the Friuli earthquake will be illustrated in this presentation.

  6. LastQuake app: a tool for risk reduction that focuses on earthquakes that really matter to the public!

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Frobert, L.


    Many seismic events are only picked up by seismometers but the only earthquakes that really interest the public (and the authorities) are those which are felt by the population. It is not a magnitude issue only; even a small magnitude earthquake, if widely felt can create a public desire for information. In LastQuake, felt events are automatically discriminated through the reactions of the population on the Internet. It uses three different and complementary methods. Twitter Earthquake detection, initially developed by the USGS, detects surges in the number of tweets containing the word "earthquake" in different languages. Flashsourcing, developed by EMSC, detects traffic surges caused by eyewitnesses on its website - one of the top global earthquake information websites. Both detections happen typically within 2 minutes of an event's occurrence. Finally, an earthquake is also confirmed as being felt when at least 3 independent felt reports (questionnaires) are collected. LastQuake automatically merges seismic data, direct (crowdsourced) and indirect eyewitnesses' contributions, damage scenarios and tsunami alerts to provide information on felt earthquakes and their effects in a time ranging from a few tens of seconds to 90 minutes. It is based on visual communication to erase language hurdles, for instance, it crowdsources felt reports through simple cartoons as well as geo-located pics. It was massively adopted in Nepal within hours of the Gorkha earthquake and collected thousands of felt reports and more than 100 informative pics. LastQuake is also a seismic risk reduction tools thanks to its very rapid information. When such information does not exist, people tend to call emergency services, crowds emerge and rumors spread. In its next release, LastQuake will also have "do/don't do" cartoons popping up after an earthquake to encourage appropriate behavior.

  7. Evacuation and Risk of Hypertension After the Great East Japan Earthquake: The Fukushima Health Management Survey.

    Ohira, Tetsuya; Hosoya, Mitsuaki; Yasumura, Seiji; Satoh, Hiroaki; Suzuki, Hitoshi; Sakai, Akira; Ohtsuru, Akira; Kawasaki, Yukihiko; Takahashi, Atsushi; Ozasa, Kotaro; Kobashi, Gen; Hashimoto, Shigeatsu; Kamiya, Kenji; Yamashita, Shunichi; Abe, Masafumi


    On March 11, 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred in Japan, with a nuclear accident subsequently occurring at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The disaster forced many evacuees to change particular aspects of their lifestyles. This study assessed the hypothesis that evacuation may have increased the risk of hypertension among residents in Fukushima. A longitudinal study examined data collected from 31 252 Japanese participants aged 40 to 74 years sourced from general health checkups conducted in 13 communities between 2008 and 2010. Follow-up examinations were conducted from 2011 through 2013. A total of 21 989 participants (follow-up proportion, 70.4%) received follow-up examinations. Mean blood pressure significantly increased in both evacuees and nonevacuees after the disaster, with greater changes in blood pressure among the former. The changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure among the evacuees and nonevacuees were +5.8/3.4 versus +4.6/2.1 mm Hg (PJapan Earthquake. Evacuation may be associated with an increased risk of hypertension among men in the 2 years after the disaster. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  8. [The Great East Japan Earthquake: Risk Factors for Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms].

    Momma, Haruki; Nagatomi, Ryoichi


    The Great East Japan Earthquake and following Tsunami struck the northeastern coast of Japan on March 11, 2011 and left approximately 21,389 dead or missing. Further, approximately 200,000 survivors were forced to live in uncomfortable environments after they had been evacuated. The survivors were not only damaged both physically and mentally, but they were also forced to change their lifestyle habits during the refuge life. It is well known that exposure to natural disasters, such as the Great East Japan Earthquake, has been associated with a variety of mental health consequences. Post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and its symptoms (PTSS) are the most commonly occurring and studied post-disaster psychopathologies. Although the majority of victims cope well with the situation and conditions associated with a disaster, some of them experience PTSS, and the minority of victims develop PTSD. In this article, we provide epidemiological findings to address the risk factors, for PTSS and PTSD. We also describe the challenges in identifying the pre-disaster risk factors for PTSS and PTSD in order to determine strategies that could facilitate psycological preparation for unexpected large-scale disasters.

  9. Stochastic relation between anomalous propagation in the line-of-sight VHF radio band and occurrences of earthquakes

    K. Motojima


    Full Text Available This paper was intended to find out any relation between anomalous line-of-sight propagation on the VHF band and occurrences of earthquakes near the VHF propagation paths. The television and FM radio broadcasting waves on the VHF band were monitored continuously over the long term. For that purpose, a multidirectional VHF band monitoring system was established and utilized. Anomalous line-of-sight propagation on the VHF band was distinguished from the monitored wave by using a statistical analysis. After the stochastic consideration, it was found out that earthquakes associated with anomalous propagation were characterized by magnitude of earthquakes M ≥ 4.5, and distances from epicenters L ≤ 75 km. The anomalous propagation was monitored on the VHF band a few days earlier the associated earthquakes occurred. Moreover, the anomaly appeared on multidirectional propagation paths simultaneously. The anomaly on the line-of-sight propagation indicates possibility of narrow focusing the area of epicenter of earthquake.

  10. 1881 and 1949 earthquakes at the Chios-Cesme Strait (Aegean Sea and their relation to tsunamis

    Y. Altinok


    Full Text Available The most earthquake-prone areas in the eastern central Aegean Sea are the Izmir Bay, the Karaburun peninsula and the island of Chios. The level of seismic activity and tsunami potential are influenced by the presence of normal faults around the region. There have been about 20 moderate-size earthquakes from 496 BC to 1949 AD. Among these earthquakes, the ones on the dates 20 March 1389, 13 November 1856, 19/22 January 1866, 3 April 1881 and 23 July 1949 produced tsunamis. The Chios-Cesme earthquake (1881, Mw 6.5 took place in the South of the Cesme strait while the Chios-Karaburun earthquake (1949, Mw 6.7 occurred in the North. The tsunamis caused by the earthquakes affected the coasts of Chios Island and Cesme. These waves are thought to be associated with the earthquakes and co-seismic underwater failures possibly occurred along the coasts of the Chios Island and Karaburun Peninsula or on the complex subaqueous morphology between these lands. Some sea waves or oscillations observed following the aftershocks are believed to be related to other natural phenomena; e.g. the seiches occurred mainly in open-narrow bays as triggered by the earthquakes.

  11. Earthquake-related injuries in the pediatric population: a systematic review.

    Jacquet, Gabrielle A; Hansoti, Bhakti; Vu, Alexander; Bayram, Jamil D


    Children are a special population, particularly susceptible to injury. Registries for various injury types in the pediatric population are important, not only for epidemiological purposes but also for their implications on intervention programs. Although injury registries already exist, there is no uniform injury classification system for traumatic mass casualty events such as earthquakes. To systematically review peer-reviewed literature on the patterns of earthquake-related injuries in the pediatric population. On May 14, 2012, the authors performed a systematic review of literature from 1950 to 2012 indexed in Pubmed, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Articles written in English, providing a quantitative description of pediatric injuries were included. Articles focusing on other types of disasters, geological, surgical, conceptual, psychological, indirect injuries, injury complications such as wound infections and acute kidney injury, case reports, reviews, and non-English articles were excluded. A total of 2037 articles were retrieved, of which only 10 contained quantitative earthquake-related pediatric injury data. All studies were retrospective, had different age categorization, and reported injuries heterogeneously. Only 2 studies reported patterns of injury for all pediatric patients, including patients admitted and discharged. Seven articles described injuries by anatomic location, 5 articles described injuries by type, and 2 articles described injuries using both systems. Differences in age categorization of pediatric patients, and in the injury classification system make quantifying the burden of earthquake-related injuries in the pediatric population difficult. A uniform age categorization and injury classification system are paramount for drawing broader conclusions, enhancing disaster preparation for future disasters, and decreasing morbidity and mortality.

  12. Empirical relations to convert magnitudes of the earthquake catalogue for the north western of Algeria

    Belayadi, Ilyes; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Fontiela, João; Nadji, Amansour


    North Algeria is one of the most seismically active regions on the western Mediterranean basin and it is related with the boundaries of the Eurasian and Nubian plates. We compiled an earthquake catalogue for the north western of Algeria, within the area -2°W-1°E and 34°N-37°N for the time span 1790 - 2016. To compile the earthquake catalogue we merge all available catalogues either national and international. Then we remove all duplicates and fake earthquakes. The lower level of the catalogue entries is set at M = 2.5. Nevertheless, the magnitudes reported on the catalogue are ML, Ms, Mb, Mw and macroseismic intensity. Thus, we develop new empirical relations to calculate the Mw from the different magnitudes and intensity suitable to the seismic hazard and geodynamic context of North Algeria. Acknowledgements: Ilyes Belayadi is funded entirely by the University of Oran 2 Mohamed Ben Ahmed (Algeria). This work is co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund under COMPETE 2020 (Operational Program for Competitiveness and Internationalization) through the ICT project (UID / GEO / 04683/2013) under the reference POCI-01-0145 -FEDER-007690.

  13. School Safety and Earthquakes.

    Dwelley, Laura; Tucker, Brian; Fernandez, Jeanette


    A recent assessment of earthquake risk to Quito, Ecuador, concluded that many of its public schools are vulnerable to collapse during major earthquakes. A subsequent examination of 60 buildings identified 15 high-risk buildings. These schools were retrofitted to meet standards that would prevent injury even during Quito's largest earthquakes. US…

  14. Performance of Built Environment in the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake and its Implications on Seismic Risk Mitigation Strategies

    Rai, D. C.


    The M7.8 Gorkha earthquake of April 25, 2015 caused unprecedented loss of life and devastation in Nepal including Kathmandu valley and affected adjoining areas in the Indo-Gangetic (IG) basin. The largest of aftershocks, the M7.3 of May 12, 2015, originated from the same rupture area, caused further damages and casualties. A field investigation of the earthquake affected areas provided an opportunity to study the vulnerability of the built environment and re-assessment of the present day risk exposure of the region which was worst affected in the M8.1 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake. The recent earthquake exposed the seismic vulnerability of the built-environment caused by lack of earthquake-resistant construction practices. Heavy damages were observed to old masonry buildings including several heritage structures. Even recent constructions of RC buildings in Kathmandu suffered moderate damage to complete collapse due to many unique and inherently poor construction features, such as open ground storey, inadequate size and poor reinforcement detailing of columns, poor geometric configuration of the buildings, insufficient spacing between adjacent buildings, projection of walls beyond the column lines, weak and slender masonry infill walls, lack of proper site investigation for constructions on sloping ground, etc. The combination of high hazards due to large earthquakes of the Himalayan collision boundary and ever-growing vulnerable built and human environment creates a situation of unacceptably high levels of risk in the Nepal and densely populated IG basin. Since maximum shaking intensity in the heavily populated IG basin was between VI and VII, most structures did escape serious damage, but they continue to remain vulnerable for future design level earthquakes. Moreover, the large scale of liquefaction and soil instability observed in the larger shaking of M8.1 1934 earthquake, may have multiplying effect on structural damages. Despite the available knowledge base of

  15. The 2011 Lorca earthquake in the context of seismic hazard and risk in Murcia; El terremoto de Lorca (2011) en el contexto de la peligrosidad y el riesgo sismico en Murcia

    Belin Oterino, B.; Rivas Medina, A.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Murphy, P.


    An analysis of the different aspects related to the May 11th, 2011 Lorca earthquake is presented, covering recorded ground motions, damage observed in different building typologies, and contrasting these observations with previous results on seismic hazard and seismic risk obtained in the province of Murcia. The essential question addressed in the analysis is whether observed ground motions and physical damage can be considered as expected or as anomalous in the frame of seismic risk in southeastern Spain. In this respect, a number of reflections are carried out and several learned lessons from the earthquake are extracted, which leads to the proposal of different recommendations for the future revision of the Spanish earthquake-resistant provisions, as well as for defining risk reduction measurements in the region. (Author) 25 refs.

  16. Analyzing the validity of a possible relation between solar-terrestrial magnetic activity and earthquakes

    Tapia, M. J.; Dominguez, M.; Pinto, V. A.; Moya, P. S.; Munoz, V.; Rogan, J.; Valdivia, J. A.


    A connection between solar-terrestrial geomagnetic activity and seismicity has been long proposed. Some studies claim there are global effects, relating solar activity, for instance sunspot number or solar wind speed, with earthquakes occurrence on the Earth. Other studies intend to find effects on a local scale, where perturbations in the geomagnetic activity are followed by seismic events. To address these issues, we analyze the statistical validity of some of the reported correlations, by means of two statistical approaches in both scales, namely the use of surrogate and Student's test. Regarding to the global analysis, we study the correlations between the sunspots area, Dst index, and the total annual released seismic energy during the last century. For local geomagnetic variations prior to an important earthquake, we carry out a similar statistical analysis between magnetic field fluctuations from the SAMBA array and the Dst index in a window of two years centered in the February 27th, 2010 M = 8.8 earthquake at Chile.

  17. Evaluation and cataloging of Korean historical earthquakes

    Lee, Kew Hwa; Han, Young Woo; Lee, Jun Hui; Park, Ji Eok; Na, Kwang Wooing; Shin, Byung Ju [The Reaearch Institute of Basic Sciences, Seoul Nationl Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)


    In order to systematically collect and analyze the historical earthquake data of the Korean peninsula which are very important in analyzing the seismicity and seismic risk of the peninsula by seismologist and historian, extensive governmental and private historical documents are investigated and relative reliabilities of these documents are examined. This research unearthed about 70 new earthquake records and revealed the change in the cultural, political and social effects of earthquakes with time in Korea. Also, the results of the vibration test of the Korean traditional wooden house are obtained in order to better estimate intensities of the historical earthquakes.

  18. The Relation Between Ground Acceleration and Earthquake Source Parameters: Theory and Observations

    Lior, Itzhak; Ziv, Alon


    A simple relation between the root-mean-square of the ground acceleration and earthquake spectral (or source) parameters is introduced: 2 ----f20---- Arms = (2π )Ω0 √--( πκf0-)2, πκT 1 + 1.50.25 where Ω0 is the low frequency displacement spectral plateau, f0 is the corner frequency, κ is an attenuation parameter, and T is the data interval. This result uses the omega-squared model for far-field radiation, and accounts for site-specific attenuation. The main advantage of the new relation with respect to that of Hanks' (Hanks, 1979) is that it relaxes the simplifying assumption that the spectral corner frequency is much smaller than the maximum corner frequency resulting from attenuation, and that the spectrum may be approximated as being perfectly flat between the two frequencies. The newly proposed relation is tested using a composite dataset of earthquake records from Japan, California, Mexico and Taiwan. Excellent agreement is found between observed and predicted ground acceleration for any combination of corner frequencies. Thus, use of the above relation enables the extrapolation of ground motion prediction equation inferred from the frequent small magnitude earthquakes to the rare large magnitudes. This capacity is extremely useful near slow-slip plate boundaries, where the seismic moment release rates are low. Reference Hanks, T. C. (1979). b values and ω-γ seismic source models: implications for tectonic stress variations along active crustal fault zones and the estimation of high-frequency strong ground motion, J. Geophys. Res. 84, 2235-2241.

  19. Limits on the potential accuracy of earthquake risk evaluations using the L’Aquila (Italy earthquake as an example

    John Douglas


    Full Text Available This article is concerned with attempting to ‘predict’ (hindcast the damage caused by the L’Aquila 2009 earthquake (Mw 6.3 and, more generally, with the question of how close predicted damage can ever be to observations. Damage is hindcast using a well-established empirical-based approach based on vulnerability indices and macroseismic intensities, adjusted for local site effects. Using information that was available before the earthquake and assuming the same event characteristics as the L’Aquila mainshock, the overall damage is reasonably well predicted but there are considerable differences in the damage pattern. To understand the reasons for these differences, information that was only available after the event were include within the calculation. Despite some improvement in the predicted damage, in particularly by the modification of the vulnerability indices and the parameter influencing the width of the damage distribution, these hindcasts do not match all the details of the observations. This is because of local effects: both in terms of the ground shaking, which is only detectable by the installation of a much denser strong-motion network and a detailed microzonation, and in terms of the building vulnerability, which cannot be modeled using a statistical approach but would require detailed analytical modeling for which calibration data are likely to be lacking. Future studies should concentrate on adjusting the generic components of the approach to make them more applicable to their location of interest. To increase the number of observations available to make these adjustments, we encourage the collection of damage states (and not just habitability classes following earthquakes and also the installation of dense strong-motion networks in built-up areas.

  20. Real-Time Earthquake Risk Mitigation Of Infrastructures Using Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response Network

    Zulfikar, Can; Pinar, Ali; Tunc, Suleyman; Erdik, Mustafa


    The Istanbul EEW network consisting of 10 inland and 5 OBS strong motion stations located close to the Main Marmara Fault zone is operated by KOERI. Data transmission between the remote stations and the base station at KOERI is provided both with satellite and fiber optic cable systems. The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes. The data transmission time from the remote stations to the KOERI data center is a few milliseconds through fiber optic lines and less than a second via satellites. The early warning signal (consisting three alarm levels) is communicated to the appropriate servo shut-down systems of the receipent facilities, that automatically decide proper action based on the alarm level. Istanbul Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the EEW signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867 km of gas lines with 550 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. State of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the pipelines are detected. Since 2005, buildings in Istanbul using natural gas are required to install seismometers that automatically cut natural gas flow when certain thresholds are exceeded. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 581 district regulator sites. The SCADA system of IGDAŞ receives the EEW signal from KOERI and decide the proper actions according to the previously specified ground acceleration levels. Presently, KOERI sends EEW signal to the SCADA system of IGDAS Natural Gas Network of Istanbul. The EEW signal

  1. Is Earthquake Triggering Driven by Small Earthquakes?

    Helmstetter, A


    Using a catalog of seismicity for Southern California, we measure how the number of triggered earthquakes increases with the earthquake magnitude. The trade-off between this scaling and the distribution of earthquake magnitudes controls the relative role of small compared to large earthquakes. We show that seismicity triggering is driven by the smallest earthquakes, which trigger fewer aftershocks than larger earthquakes, but which are much more numerous. We propose that the non-trivial scaling of the number of aftershocks emerges from the fractal spatial distribution of aftershocks.

  2. Clustering of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and the relation to subsurface geologic features

    Shah, A. K.; Keller, G. R., Jr.


    Recent research shows that a significant amount of seismic activity in Oklahoma since 2009 is likely related to fluid injection. Seismicity has been observed to generally increase in areas where injection volume and rates are highest but there is a significant amount of variation, with nearby areas experiencing notably different amounts of seismicity. Likely contributors to these differences are the presence of optimally oriented faults and differences in rock permeability structure since rocks with higher permeability are more likely to experience pore fluid pressure changes that can bring faults closer to failure. Most earthquakes occur at depths of ~4-8 km, within crystalline rock of the mid-Proterozoic western granite-rhyolite terrane. Within this terrane, drill-hole data show instances of mafic intrusive rocks that may in part be related to the mid-continent rift. To better understand relations between subsurface geology and seismicity, we reprocessed 1970's NURE airborne magnetic data. The 5-8-km line spacing of the surveys is coarse, but the processed data show subtle, ~20-35-km long lineaments trending mostly NNW but also NW and NE. Some of these correspond to mapped faults; others are interpreted to represent faults or folds. In some areas the lineaments correspond to earthquake locations, but the magnetic data are often too coarse to establish a clear correspondence. The magnetic maps also show rounded highs that are located near sites where drilling has encountered mafic rock, strongly suggesting that the highs represent mafic intrusions. We find that many earthquakes cluster around or near the edges of the magnetic highs but much less frequently over them, even when they are located close to high-volume injection wells. We hypothesize that the rounded magnetic highs represent mafic intrusions with decreased permeability. In contrast, contacts at the edges of these intrusions may have higher permeability and are thus more likely to experience seismicity.

  3. Tidal stress triggering effects of earthquakes based on various tectonic regions in China and related astronomical characteristics


    Dividing the mainland China into different tectonic stress regions,we calculate tidal stress components along the seismic compressive and extensional principal stress axes at every earthquake’s focus in different tectonic stress regions.Tidal stress triggering effect on every earthquake fault is analyzed.Based on this,the lunar-solar location parameters on the occurring times of earthquakes which suffered tidal triggering effects are calculated,and the distribution patterns of the lunar-solar location parameters in different tectonic stress regions are obtained.The results indicate that earthquake tidal triggering effects and related astronomical characteristics are dependent on the properties of regional tectonic stress and the geographic locations of earthquake faults.

  4. Earthquake-related Tectonic Deformation of Soft-sediments and Its Constraints on Basin Tectonic Evolution

    LU Hongbo; ZHANG Yuxu; ZHANG Qiling; XIAO Jiafei


    The authors introduced two kinds of newly found soft-sediment deformation-syn-sedimentary extension structure and syn-sedimentary compression structure, and discuss their origins and constraints on basin tectonic evolution. One representative of the syn-sedimentary extension structure is syn-sedimentary boudinage structure, while the typical example of the syn-sedimentary compression structure is compression sand pillows or compression wrinkles. The former shows NW-SE-trending contemporaneous extension events related to earthquakes in the rift basin near a famous Fe-Nb-REE deposit in northern China during the Early Paleozoic (or Mesoproterozoic as proposed by some researches), while the latter indicates NE-SW-trending contemporaneous compression activities related to earthquakes in the Middle Triassic in the Nanpanjiang remnant basin covering south Guizhou, northwestern Guangxi and eastern Yunnan in southwestern China. The syn-sedimentary boudinage structure was found in an earthquake slump block in the lower part of the Early Paleozoic Sailinhudong Group, 20 km to the southeast of Bayan Obo, Inner Mongolia, north of China. The slump block is composed of two kinds of very thin layers-pale-gray micrite (microcrystalline limestone) of 1-2 cm thick interbedded with gray muddy micrite layers with the similar thickness. Almost every thin muddy micrite layer was cut into imbricate blocks or boudins by abundant tiny contemporaneous faults, while the interbedded micrite remain in continuity. Boudins form as a response to layer-parallel extension (and/or layer-perpendicular flattening) of stiff layers enveloped top and bottom by mechanically soft layers. In this case, the imbricate blocks cut by the tiny contemporaneous faults are the result of abrupt horizontal extension of the crust in the SE-NW direction accompanied with earthquakes. Thus, the rock block is, in fact, a kind of seismites. The syn-sedimentary boudins indicate that there was at least a strong earthquake

  5. Risk Perception and Economic Value Of Disaster Mitigation Case of Bantul Post Earthquake May 2006



    Full Text Available This study aims to obtain empirical evidence of disaster mitigation in Bantul, Indonesia. The expected utility theory and impact of regional characteristics on individual perceptions was used to describe the disaster risk management process. The regional mapping based on hazard level was conducted by a Geographical Information System (GIS. Data used in this research were primary and secondary data. Primary data were obtained by distributing questionnaire to some respondents. Sample amounts used were 395 respondents. The research empirical contribution was to economic valuation method used towards safety and efforts to link regional characteristics, individual perception and also their willingness to conduct mitigation. The research practical contribution was to identify some key obstacles in disaster risk management. Based on multiple regression analysis, this study found that educational level, risk aversion degree, trust towards earthquake resistant building, control ability, income level, classification of hazard area contributes to higher Willingness To Pay (WTP for mitigation. It also found that perception towards central governmental roles variable did not affect to WTP for mitigation. However, the income levels of the communities in Bantul positively correspond to WTP for mitigation suggesting that the findings were consistent with the expected utility theory.

  6. Earthquake Loss Assessment for the Evaluation of the Sovereign Risk and Financial Sustainability of Countries and Cities

    Cardona, O. D.


    Recently earthquakes have struck cities both from developing as well as developed countries, revealing significant knowledge gaps and the need to improve the quality of input data and of the assumptions of the risk models. The quake and tsunami in Japan (2011) and the disasters due to earthquakes in Haiti (2010), Chile (2010), New Zealand (2011) and Spain (2011), only to mention some unexpected impacts in different regions, have left several concerns regarding hazard assessment as well as regarding the associated uncertainties to the estimation of the future losses. Understanding probable losses and reconstruction costs due to earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to cope with sovereign risk, including allocating the sustained budgetary resources necessary to reduce those potential damages and safeguard development. Therefore the use of robust risk models is a need to assess the future economic impacts, the country's fiscal responsibilities and the contingent liabilities for governments and to formulate, justify and implement risk reduction measures and optimal financial strategies of risk retention and transfer. Special attention should be paid to the understanding of risk metrics such as the Loss Exceedance Curve (empiric and analytical) and the Expected Annual Loss in the context of conjoint and cascading hazards.

  7. Perceived Changes in Social Relations after Earthquake Trauma among Eastern Anatolian Women: Associated Factors and Mental Health Consequences.

    Sezgin, A Ufuk; Punamäki, Raija-Leena


    In this study, we examined social relations in women exposed to earthquake trauma in Eastern Anatolia, Turkey. We examined women's perceptions regarding the changes in their social relations within their neighbourhood, within their marriage and with their children; analysed the factors that were associated with these relations; and tested the hypothesis that an improvement in social relations will protect women's mental health from the negative impact of earthquake trauma. Participants consisted of a random selection of 1253 women, who were interviewed regarding their psychosocial needs and mental health status 1 year after earthquake. They reported trauma-related changes in their social relations; their mental health was evaluated using the Post Traumatic Stress Diagnostic Scale and Brief Symptom Inventory. Our study demonstrated severe earthquake trauma was associated with deteriorated social relations, especially neighbourhood and marital relations. Deteriorated marital and child relations were associated with increased levels of psychiatric distress; deteriorated neighbourhood relations were associated with intrusive posttraumatic stress symptoms. Improved neighbourhood relations, but not family relations, were able to protect women's mental health from the negative impact of trauma. The results are discussed regarding their relevance to gender effects and the provision of relation-specific and symptom-specific disaster relief. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Malnutrition and inflammation in acute kidney injury due to earthquake-related crush syndrome

    Zhang Yue


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malnutrition and inflammation are common and serious complications in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI. However, the profile of these complications in patients with AKI caused by crush syndrome (CS remains unclear. This study describes the clinical characteristics of malnutrition and inflammation in patients with AKI and CS due to the Wenchuan earthquake. Methods One thousand and twelve victims and eighteen healthy adults were recruited to the study. They were divided into five groups: Group A was composed of victims without CS and AKI (904 cases; Group B was composed of patients with CS and AKI who haven't received renal replacement therapy (RRT (57 cases; and Group C was composed of patients with CS and AKI receiving RRT (25 cases; Group D was composed of earthquake victims with AKI but without CS (26 cases; and Group E was composed of 18 healthy adult controls. The C-reactive protein (CRP, prealbumin, transferrin, interleukin-6 and TNF-α were measured and compared between Group E and 18 patients from Group C. Results The results indicate that participants in Group C had the highest level of serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and uric acid. Approximately 92% of patients with CS who had RRT were suffering from hypoalbuminemia. The interleukin-6 and CRP levels were significantly higher in patients with CS AKI receiving RRT than in the control group. Patients in Group C received the highest dosages of albumin, plasma or red blood cell transfusions. One patient in Group C died during treatment. Conclusions Malnutrition and inflammation was common in patients with earthquake-related CS and had a negative impact on the prognosis of these subjects. The results of this study indicate that the use of RRT, intensive nutritional supplementation and transfusion alleviated the degree of malnutrition and inflammation in hemodialysis patients with crush syndrome.

  9. A Public Health Issue Related To Collateral Seismic Hazards: The Valley Fever Outbreak Triggered By The 1994 Northridge, California Earthquake

    Jibson, Randall W.

    Following the 17 January 1994 Northridge, California earthquake (M = 6.7), Ventura County, California, experienced a major outbreak ofcoccidioidomycosis (CM), commonly known as valley fever, a respiratory disease contracted byinhaling airborne fungal spores. In the 8 weeks following the earthquake (24 Januarythrough 15 March), 203 outbreak-associated cases were reported, which is about an order of magnitude more than the expected number of cases, and three of these cases were fatal.Simi Valley, in easternmost Ventura County, had the highest attack rate in the county,and the attack rate decreased westward across the county. The temporal and spatial distribution of CM cases indicates that the outbreak resulted from inhalation of spore-contaminated dust generated by earthquake-triggered landslides. Canyons North East of Simi Valleyproduced many highly disrupted, dust-generating landslides during the earthquake andits aftershocks. Winds after the earthquake were from the North East, which transporteddust into Simi Valley and beyond to communities to the West. The three fatalities from the CM epidemic accounted for 4 percent of the total earthquake-related fatalities.

  10. Archaeoseismology in Algeria: observed damages related to probable past earthquakes on archaeological remains on Roman sites (Tel Atlas of Algeria)

    Roumane, Kahina; Ayadi, Abdelhakim


    The seismological catalogue for Algeria exhibits significant lack for the period before 1365. Some attempts led to retrieve ancient earthquakes evidenced by historical documents and achieves. Archaeoseismology allows a study of earthquakes that have affected archaeological sites, based on the analysis of damage observed on remains. We have focused on the Antiquity period that include Roman, Vandal and Byzantine period from B.C 146 to A.D. 533. This will contribute significantly to the understanding of seismic hazard of the Tell Atlas region known as an earthquake prone area. The Tell Atlas (Algeria) experienced during its history many disastrous earthquakes their impacts are graved on landscape and archaeological monuments. On Roman sites such, Lambaesis (Lambèse), Thamugadi (Timgad) Thibilis (Salaoua Announa) or Thevest (Tebessa), damage were observed on monuments and remains related to seismic events following strong shacking or other ground deformation (subsidence, landslide). Examples of observed damage and disorders on several Roman sites are presented as a contribution to Archaeoseismology in Algeria based on effects of earthquakes on ancient structures and monuments. Keywords : Archaeoseismology. Lambaesis. Drop columns. Aspecelium. Ancient earthquakes

  11. Earthquake Science: a New Start

    Chen Yun-tai


    @@ Understanding the mechanisms which cause earthquakes and thus earthquake prediction, is inher-ently difficult in comparison to other physical phenom-ena. This is due to the inaccessibility of the Earth's inte-rior, the infrequency of large earthquakes, and the com-plexities of the physical processes involved. Conse-quently, in its broadest sense, earthquake science--the science of studying earthquake phenomena, is a com-prehensive and inter-disciplinary field. The disciplines involved in earthquake science include: traditional seismology, earthquake geodesy, earthquake geology, rock mechanics, complex system theory, and informa-tion and communication technologies related to earth-quake studies.


    Kawabe, Yoshishige; Hara, Junko; Yasutaka, Tetsuo; Sakamoto, Yasuhide; Zhang, Ming; Komai, Takeshi

    In this study, leaching behaviors of heavy metals from the tsunami sediments by the Great East Japan Earthquake and their risks to human were evaluated. There were any samples in excess of Japanese criteria for the leaching values of arsenic and lead. The heavy metals content in the tsunami sediments were lower than Japanese criteria, which geometric means were calculated to be 1.1 mg/kg for arsenic, 6.7 mg/kg for lead, 0.064 mg/kg for cadmium and1.7 mg/kg for chromium. The risk levels of heavy metals in tsunami sediment to human health were not so much high, because the exposure rates, which were estimated to be 1.4×10-2 μg/kg/d for arsenic, 8.1×10-3 μg/kg/d for lead, 4.6×10-3 μg/kg/d for cadmium and 8.9×10-3 μg/kg/d for chromium, were much lower than their acceptable intakes.

  13. On the Relation of Earthquake Stress Drop and Ground Motion Variability

    Oth, A.; Miyake, H.; Bindi, D.


    The physical properties of the seismic source play a major role in the generation of earthquake ground motions. One of the key parameters typically used in this context is the so-called stress drop since it can be directly linked to the high-frequency spectral level of ground motion, and it is an important input parameter for ground motion modeling. At the same time, classically determined stress drop estimates from moment-corner frequency analysis have been shown to be extremely variable, and this to a much larger degree than might be expected from the decomposition of ground motion variability into its between-event and within-event components following the random effects approach (Cotton et al., 2013). This discrepancy raises the question of whether classically determined stress drop variability is too large, which would have significant implications for ground motion prediction in seismic hazard analysis. We use the rich high-quality accelerometric databases available in Japan to derive non-parametric ground motion models on these data that serve as reference models. We then investigate the relation between the between-event terms for the individual earthquakes from these regressions with stress drop estimates determined nation-wide for crustal earthquakes. As a complement to the non-parametric models, we also apply a parametric mixed effects modeling approach to investigate the influence of between-event, between-region and between-sequence variability. The analysis is carried out for JMA equivalent seismic intensity, PGA and PGV data. Our results indicate a clear correlation of the between-event terms with stress drops estimates, both for non-parametric and parametric approaches - however with the interesting effect of the appearance of two major families of events with widely different stress drop, yet similar range of between-event terms. This effect is in agreement with the observation made by Cotton et al. (2013) that the between-event ground motion

  14. Relative risk regression analysis of epidemiologic data.

    Prentice, R L


    Relative risk regression methods are described. These methods provide a unified approach to a range of data analysis problems in environmental risk assessment and in the study of disease risk factors more generally. Relative risk regression methods are most readily viewed as an outgrowth of Cox's regression and life model. They can also be viewed as a regression generalization of more classical epidemiologic procedures, such as that due to Mantel and Haenszel. In the context of an epidemiologic cohort study, relative risk regression methods extend conventional survival data methods and binary response (e.g., logistic) regression models by taking explicit account of the time to disease occurrence while allowing arbitrary baseline disease rates, general censorship, and time-varying risk factors. This latter feature is particularly relevant to many environmental risk assessment problems wherein one wishes to relate disease rates at a particular point in time to aspects of a preceding risk factor history. Relative risk regression methods also adapt readily to time-matched case-control studies and to certain less standard designs. The uses of relative risk regression methods are illustrated and the state of development of these procedures is discussed. It is argued that asymptotic partial likelihood estimation techniques are now well developed in the important special case in which the disease rates of interest have interpretations as counting process intensity functions. Estimation of relative risks processes corresponding to disease rates falling outside this class has, however, received limited attention. The general area of relative risk regression model criticism has, as yet, not been thoroughly studied, though a number of statistical groups are studying such features as tests of fit, residuals, diagnostics and graphical procedures. Most such studies have been restricted to exponential form relative risks as have simulation studies of relative risk estimation


    L. Thapa


    Full Text Available Social Medias these days have become the instant communication platform to share anything; from personal feelings to the matter of public concern, these are the easiest and aphoristic way to deliver information among the mass. With the development of Web 2.0 technologies, more and more emphasis has been given to user input in the web; the concept of Geoweb is being visualized and in the recent years, social media like Twitter, Flicker are among the popular Location Based Social Medias with locational functionality enabled in them. Nepal faced devastating earthquake on 25 April, 2015 resulting in the loss of thousands of lives, destruction in the historical-archaeological sites and properties. Instant help was offered by many countries around the globe and even lots of NGOs, INGOs and people started the rescue operations immediately; concerned authorities and people used different communication medium like Frequency Modulation Stations, Television, and Social Medias over the World Wide Web to gather information associated with the Quake and to ease the rescue activities. They also initiated campaign in the Social Media to raise the funds and support the victims. Even the social medias like Facebook, Twitter, themselves announced the helping campaign to rebuild Nepal. In such scenario, this paper features the analysis of Twitter data containing hashtag related to Nepal Earthquake 2015 together with their temporal characteristics, when were the message generated, where were these from and how these spread spatially over the internet?

  16. Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Social Media Data Related to Nepal Earthquake 2015

    Thapa, L.


    Social Medias these days have become the instant communication platform to share anything; from personal feelings to the matter of public concern, these are the easiest and aphoristic way to deliver information among the mass. With the development of Web 2.0 technologies, more and more emphasis has been given to user input in the web; the concept of Geoweb is being visualized and in the recent years, social media like Twitter, Flicker are among the popular Location Based Social Medias with locational functionality enabled in them. Nepal faced devastating earthquake on 25 April, 2015 resulting in the loss of thousands of lives, destruction in the historical-archaeological sites and properties. Instant help was offered by many countries around the globe and even lots of NGOs, INGOs and people started the rescue operations immediately; concerned authorities and people used different communication medium like Frequency Modulation Stations, Television, and Social Medias over the World Wide Web to gather information associated with the Quake and to ease the rescue activities. They also initiated campaign in the Social Media to raise the funds and support the victims. Even the social medias like Facebook, Twitter, themselves announced the helping campaign to rebuild Nepal. In such scenario, this paper features the analysis of Twitter data containing hashtag related to Nepal Earthquake 2015 together with their temporal characteristics, when were the message generated, where were these from and how these spread spatially over the internet?

  17. Estimation of Future Earthquake Losses in California

    Rowshandel, B.; Wills, C. J.; Cao, T.; Reichle, M.; Branum, D.


    Recent developments in earthquake hazards and damage modeling, computing, and data management and processing, have made it possible to develop estimates of the levels of damage from earthquakes that may be expected in the future in California. These developments have been mostly published in the open literature, and provide an opportunity to estimate the levels of earthquake damage Californians can expect to suffer during the next several decades. Within the past 30 years, earthquake losses have increased dramatically, mostly because our exposure to earthquake hazards has increased. All but four of the recent damaging earthquakes have occurred distant from California's major population centers. Two, the Loma Prieta earthquake and the San Fernando earthquake, occurred on the edges of major populated areas. Loma Prieta caused significant damage in the nearby Santa Cruz and in the more distant, heavily populated, San Francisco Bay area. The 1971 San Fernando earthquake had an epicenter in the lightly populated San Gabriel Mountains, but caused slightly over 2 billion dollars in damage in the Los Angeles area. As urban areas continue to expand, the population and infrastructure at risk increases. When earthquakes occur closer to populated areas, damage is more significant. The relatively minor Whittier Narrows earthquake of 1987 caused over 500 million dollars in damage because it occurred in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, not at its fringes. The Northridge earthquake had fault rupture directly beneath the San Fernando Valley, and caused about 46 billion dollars in damage. This vast increase in damage from the San Fernando earthquake reflected both the location of the earthquake directly beneath the populated area and the 23 years of continued development and resulting greater exposure to potential damage. We have calculated losses from potential future earthquake, both as scenarios of potential earthquakes and as annualized losses considering all the potential

  18. Lessons from the conviction of the L'Aquila seven: The standard probabilistic earthquake hazard and risk assessment is ineffective

    Wyss, Max


    An earthquake of M6.3 killed 309 people in L'Aquila, Italy, on 6 April 2011. Subsequently, a judge in L'Aquila convicted seven who had participated in an emergency meeting on March 30, assessing the probability of a major event to follow the ongoing earthquake swarm. The sentence was six years in prison, a combine fine of 2 million Euros, loss of job, loss of retirement rent, and lawyer's costs. The judge followed the prosecution's accusation that the review by the Commission of Great Risks had conveyed a false sense of security to the population, which consequently did not take their usual precautionary measures before the deadly earthquake. He did not consider the facts that (1) one of the convicted was not a member of the commission and had merrily obeyed orders to bring the latest seismological facts to the discussion, (2) another was an engineer who was not required to have any expertise regarding the probability of earthquakes, (3) and two others were seismologists not invited to speak to the public at a TV interview and a press conference. This exaggerated judgment was the consequence of an uproar in the population, who felt misinformed and even mislead. Faced with a population worried by an earthquake swarm, the head of the Italian Civil Defense is on record ordering that the population be calmed, and the vice head executed this order in a TV interview one hour before the meeting of the Commission by stating "the scientific community continues to tell me that the situation is favorable and that there is a discharge of energy." The first lesson to be learned is that communications to the public about earthquake hazard and risk must not be left in the hands of someone who has gross misunderstandings about seismology. They must be carefully prepared by experts. The more significant lesson is that the approach to calm the population and the standard probabilistic hazard and risk assessment, as practiced by GSHAP, are misleading. The later has been criticized as

  19. Risk Aversion Relates to Cognitive Ability

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl


    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making, rather than to risk preferences....

  20. Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences....

  1. Earthquake-Related Injuries in the Pediatric Population: A Systematic Review

    Jacquet, Gabrielle A.; Hansoti, Bhakti; Vu, Alexander; Bayram, Jamil D.


    Background: Children are a special population, particularly susceptible to injury. Registries for various injury types in the pediatric population are important, not only for epidemiological purposes but also for their implications on intervention programs. Although injury registries already exist, there is no uniform injury classification system for traumatic mass casualty events such as earthquakes. Objective: To systematically review peer-reviewed literature on the patterns of earthquake-r...

  2. Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?

    Kagan, Yan Y


    We consider three issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) how to evaluate the earthquake maximum size in subduction zones, (2) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in Tohoku area, and (3) what are the possibilities of short-term forecasts during the 2011 sequence. There are two quantitative methods which can be applied to estimate the maximum earthquake size: a statistical analysis of the available earthquake record and the moment conservation principle. The latter technique studies how much of the tectonic deformation rate is released by earthquakes. For the subduction zones, the seismic or historical record is not sufficient to provide a reliable statistical measure of the maximum earthquake. The moment conservation principle yields consistent estimates of maximum earthquake size: for all the subduction zones the magnitude is of the order 9.0--9.7, and for major subduction zones the maximum earthquake size is statistically indistinguishable. Starting in 1999 we have carried out...




    Two measures of earthquakes, the seismic moment and the broadband radiated energy, show completely different scaling relations. For shallow earthquakes worldwide from January 1987 to December 1998, the frequency distribution of the seismic moment shows a clear kink between moderate and large earthquakes, as revealed by previous works. But the frequency distribution of the broadband radiated energy shows a single power law, a classical Gutenberg-Richter relation. This inconsistency raises a paradox in the self-organized criticality model of earthquakes.

  4. The Mini-IPIP Scale: psychometric features and relations with PTSD symptoms of Chinese earthquake survivors.

    Li, Zhongquan; Sang, Zhiqin; Wang, Li; Shi, Zhanbiao


    The present purpose was to validate the Mini-IPIP scale, a short measure of the five-factor model personality traits, with a sample of Chinese earthquake survivors. A total of 1,563 participants, ages 16 to 85 years, completed the Mini-IPIP scale and a measure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the five-factor structure of the Mini-IPIP with adequate values of various fit indices. This scale also showed values of internal consistency, Cronbach's alphas ranged from .79 to .84, and McDonald's omega ranged from .73 to .82 for scores on each subscale. Moreover, the five personality traits measured by the Mini-IPIP and those assessed by other big five measures had comparable patterns of relations with PTSD symptoms. Findings indicated that the Mini-IPIP is an adequate short-form of the Big-Five factors of personality, which is applicable with natural disaster survivors.

  5. Stability of a power law relation between characteristics of earthquakes and electric precursors

    E. Dologlou


    Full Text Available New data were used to test the credibility of a previously reported power law relation between the stress drop of earthquakes and the lead time of precursory SES. Here, we found that the critical exponent of this power law is very sensitive and remains stable around 0.33 only for appropriate sets of data. This value is in full agreement with the reported one in literature for critical phenomena. That means this power law is not an artifact, but probably implies that real physical dynamic processes evolving to criticality are present in the pre-focal area when the SES is emitted. An attempt to advance the underlying physics of the interconnection of the stress drop and the lead time of the precursory SES is still in progress.

  6. The use of the Earth tide-seismicity compliance parameter maps for earthquake risk mitigation

    Contadakis, Michae lE.; Arabelos, Demetrios N.; Vergos, George; Spatala, pyrousS


    Applying the Hi(stogram)Cum(ulation) method, which was introduced recently by Cadicheanu, van Ruymbecke and Zhu (2007), we analyze the series of the earthquakes occurred in the last 50 years in seismic active areas of Greece, i.e. the areas (a) of the Mygdonian Basin(Contadakis et al. 2007), (b) of the Ionian Islands (Contadakis et al. 2012) and (c) of the Hellenic Arc (Vergos et al. 2015) . The result of the analysis for all the areas indicate that the monthly variation of the earthquake frequency is in accordance with the period of the tidal lunar monthly and semi-monthly (Mm and Mf) variations and the same happens with the corresponding daily variations of the frequencies of earthquake occurrence with the diurnal luni-solar (K1) and semidiurnal lunar (M2) tidal variations. In addition the confidence level for the identification of such period accordance between earthquakes occurrence and tidal periods varies with seismic activity, i.e. the higher confidence level corresponds to time periods with stronger seismic activity. These results are in favor of a tidal triggering process on earthquakes when the stress in the focal area is near the critical level. Based on these results, we consider the confidence level of earthquake occurrence - tidal period accordance,wich we call 'earth tide-seismicity compliance parameter p", as an index of tectonic stress criticality for earthquake occurrence and we construct maps of p's over all the area of Greece for each year from 1964 on. It is seen that these maps indicate roughly the seismic active areas. Thus these maps, as well as those of narrower time windows, may be used in earthquake hazard estimation. References: Cadicheanu, N., van Ruymbeke, M andZhu P.,2007:Tidal triggering evidence of intermediate depth earthquakes in Vrancea zone(Romania), NHESS 7,733-740. Contadakis, M. E., Arabelos, D. N., Spatalas, S., 2009, Evidence for tidal triggering on the shallow earthquakes of the seismic area of Mygdonia basin, North Greece

  7. Development of a national system for prevention and mitigation of earthquake damages to people and properties, and the reduction of costs related to earthquakes for the Italian Government

    Console, R.; Greco, M.; Colangelo, A.; Cioè, A.; Trivigno, L.; Chiappini, M.; Ponzo, F.


    Recognizing that the Italian territory is prone to disasters in connection with seismic and hydro-geological risk, it has become necessary to define novel regulations and viable solutions aimed at conveying the economical resources of the Italian Government, too often utilized for the management of post-event situations, towards prevention activities. The work synthetically presents the project developed by the CGIAM together with the INGV, and open to collaboration with other Italian and International partners. This project is aimed at the development of a National System for prevention and mitigation of the earthquakes damages, through the definition of a model that achieves the mitigation of the building collapsing risk and the consequent reduction of casualties. Such a model is based on two main issues a) a correct evaluation of risk, defined as a reliable assessment of the hazard expected at a given site and of the vulnerability of civil and industrial buildings, b) setting up of novel strategies for the safety of buildings. The hazard assessment is pursued through the application of innovative multidisciplinary geophysical methodologies and the application of a physically based earthquake simulator. The structural vulnerability of buildings is estimated by means of simplified techniques based on few representative parameters (such as different structural typologies, dynamic soil-structure interaction, etc.) and, for detailed studies, standard protocols for model updating techniques. We analyze, through numerical and experimental approaches, new solutions for the use of innovative materials, and new techniques for the reduction of seismic vulnerability of structural, non-structural and accessorial elements, including low cost type. The project activities are initially implemented on a study area in Southern Italy (Calabria) selected because of its tectonic complexity. The results are expected to be applicable for other hazardous seismic areas of Italy.

  8. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete


    trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...

  9. 30 CFR 250.192 - What reports and statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural...


    ... submitting your statistics by fax or e-mail, you may submit them electronically in accordance with 30 CFR 250... electronically in accordance with 30 CFR 250.186(a)(3). In the report, you must: (i) Name the items damaged (e.g... relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural occurrence? 250.192 Section 250.192 Mineral...

  10. The use of the Earth tide-seismicity compliance parameter maps for earthquake risk mitigation

    Arabelos D. N.; Contadakis, M. E.; Vergos, G.; S. Spatalas


    Applying the Hi(stogram)Cum(ulation) method, which was introduced recently by Cadicheanu, van Ruymbecke and Zhu (2007), we analyze the series of the earthquakes occurred in the last 50 years in seismic active areas of Greece, i.e. the areas (a) of the Mygdonian Basin(Contadakis et al. 2007), (b) of the Ionian Islands (Contadakis et al. 2012 ) and (c) of the Hellenic Arc (Vergos et al. 2015 ) . The result of the analysis for all the areas indicate that the monthly variation of the earthquake frequency is in accordance with the period of the tidal lunar monthly and semi-monthly (Mm and Mf) variations and the same happens with the corresponding daily variations of the frequencies of earthquake occurrence with the diurnal luni-solar (K1) and semidiurnal lunar (M2) tidal variations. In addition the confidence level for the identification of such period accordance between earthquakes occurrence and tidal periods varies with seismic activity, i.e. the higher confidence level corresponds to time periods with stronger seismic activity. These results are in favor of a tidal triggering process on earthquakes when the stress in the focal area is near the critical level (Vidale 1998). Based on these results, we consider the confidence level of earthquake occurrence - tidal period accordance, which we call "earth tide-seismicity compliance parameter p", as an index of tectonic stress criticality for earthquake occurrence and we construct maps of p's over all the area of Greece for each year from 1964 on. It is seen that these maps indicate roughly the seismic active areas. Thus these maps, as well as those of narrower time windows, may be used in earthquake hazard estimation

  11. Development of attenuation relation for the near fault ground motion from the characteristic earthquake

    SHI Bao-ping; LIU Bo-yan; ZHANG Jian


    A composite source model has been used to simulate a broadband strong ground motion with an associated fault rupture process. A scenario earthquake fault model has been used to generate 1 000 earthquake events with a magnitude of Mw8.0. The simulated results show that, for the characteristic event with a strike-slip faulting, the characteristics of near fault ground motion is strongly dependent on the rupture directivity. If the distance between the sites and fault was given, the ground motion in the forward direction (Site A) is much larger than that in the backward direction (Site C) and that close to the fault (Site B). The SH waves radiated from the fault, which corresponds to the fault-normal component plays a key role in the ground motion amplification. Corresponding to the sites A, B, and C, the statistical analysis shows that the ratio of their aPG is 2.15:1.5:1 and their standard deviations are about 0.12, 0.11, and 0.13, respectively. If these results are applied in the current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), then, for the lower annual frequency of exceedance of peak ground acceleration, the predicted aPG from the hazard curve could reduce by 30% or more compared with the current PSHA model used in the developing of seismic hazard map in the USA. Therefore, with a consideration of near fault ground motion caused by the rupture directivity, the regression model used in the development of the regional attenuation relation should be modified accordingly.

  12. Earthquake Disaster Management and Insurance


    As one of the most powerful tools to reduce the earthquake loss, the Earthquake Disaster Management [EDM] and Insurance [EI] have been highlighted and have had a great progress in many countries in recent years. Earthquake disaster management includes a series of contents, such as earthquake hazard and risk analysis, vulnerability analysis of building and infrastructure, earthquake aware training, and building the emergency response system. EI, which has been included in EDM after this practice has been...

  13. Proactive vs. reactive learning on buildings response and earthquake risks, in schools of Romania

    Daniela DOBRE


    Full Text Available During the last 20 years, many specific activities of earthquake education and preparedness were initiated and supported in Romania by drafting materials for citizens, students, professors etc. (Georgescu et al., 2004, 2006. The education, training and information on earthquake disaster potential are important factors to mitigate the earthquake effects. Such activities, however, need time to be developed and may take different forms of presentation in order to capture the attention, to increase interest, to develop skills and attitudes in order to induce a proper behavior towards safety preparedness. It shall also be based on the accumulation of concerns and knowledge, which are, in principle, a consequence of the motivation, but which depend on the methods applied and actions taken for efficient earthquake preparedness, assessed and updated following actual earthquakes (Masuda, Midorikawa, Miki and Ohmachi, 1988. We are now at a crossroad and the proactive attitude and behavior (anticipative and participative needs to be extended in learning, within institutional framework, but correlated with the usual targets of schools and teenagers proactive issue (ROEDUSEIS-NET; Page and Page, 2003, by encouraging students in activities closer to earthquake engineering.

  14. Earthquake Risk Analysis and Science for Peace in Western/ Kashmir Himalayas - A Road Map for Transnational Subsurface Earth Imaging

    Tandon, K.


    In light of immense human tragedy caused by the Kashmir earthquake of October 8, 2005, there is a need for transnational science for the assessment of future earthquake risks and understanding continental dynamics within the Western and Kashmir Himalayas. One can approach such a test to our society through understanding what causes these earthquakes in Kashmir in the first place in a rigorous manner and also try to determine how often do they happen in Western/ Kashmir Himalayas. Geophysical measurements (passive source, active source seismology, magnetotelluric measurements, Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR)) are imaging techniques for earth's deeper as well as shallow structure. When such imaging techniques are used on scales of earth's crust and beyond (~30 km to 100 km) and also on near the surface (~10 to100 meters) of the earth, it helps us understand both the processes for the origin and frequency of the earthquakes. Here, I will only concentrate on a road map for planning regional reflection seismology (active source seismology) surveys within the context of National Science Foundation (NSF) led Science for Peace Initiative primarily involving USA, India, and Pakistan. The proposal here is to initiate shallow and deep active source surveys in mega-population cities in Punjab and adjoining areas in Western Himalayas on either side of the political boundaries of India and Pakistan as separate ventures for first few years but a start for future collaboration. Once the core scientific teams are formed involving Indian, Pakistani, American, and scientists from other nations too, then the Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone in the Kashmir Himalayas should be the target for detailed geophysical and geological investigations. The idea presented here was first formed for the NSF sponsored International Karakoram-Kashmir Workshop that was supposed to be held in Islamabad (Pakistan), May 2006 with around 100 invitees from 10 nations for forming joint scientific initiatives

  15. Observational Studies of Earthquake Preparation and Generation to Mitigate Seismic Risks in Mines

    Durrheim, R. J.; Ogasawara, H.; Nakatani, M.; Milev, A.; Cichowicz, A.; Kawakata, H.; Yabe, Y.; Murakami, O.; Naoi, M. M.; Moriya, H.; Satoh, T.


    We provide a status report on a 5-year project to monitor in-situ fault instability and strong motion in South African gold mines. The project has two main aims: (1) To learn more about earthquake preparation and generation mechanisms by deploying dense arrays of high-sensitivity sensors within rock volumes where mining is likely to induce significant seismic activity. (2) To upgrade the South African national surface seismic network in the mining districts. This knowledge will contribute to efforts to upgrade schemes of seismic hazard assessment and to limit and mitigate the seismic risks in deep mines. As of 31 July 2011, 46 boreholes totalling 1.9 km in length had been drilled at project sites at Ezulwini, Moab-Khotsong and Driefontein gold mines. Several dozen more holes are still to be drilled. Acoustic emission sensors, strain- and tiltmeters, and controlled seismic sources are being installed to monitor the deformation of the rock mass, the accumulation of damage during the preparation phase, and changes in dynamic stress as the rupture front propagates. These data will be integrated with measurements of stope closure, stope strong motion, seismic data recorded by the mine-wide network, and stress modelling. Preliminary results will be reported at AGU meeting. The project is endorsed by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the South African government. It is funded by the JST-JICA program for Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable development (SATREPS, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the Council for Geoscience, the University of the Witwatersrand and the Department of Science and Technology. The contributions of Seismogen CC, OHMS Ltd, AnglogoldAshanti Rock Engineering Applied Research Group, First Uranium, the Gold Fields Seismic Department and the Institute of Mine Seismology are gratefully acknowledged.

  16. The possible statistical relation of Pc1 pulsations to Earthquake occurrence at low latitudes

    J. Bortnik


    Full Text Available We examine the association between earthquakes and Pc1 pulsations observed at a low-latitude station in Parkfield, California. The period under examination is ~7.5 years in total, from February 1999 to July 2006, and we use an automatic identification algorithm to extract information on Pc1 pulsations from the magnetometer data. These pulsations are then statistically correlated to earthquakes from the USGS NEIC catalog within a radius of 200 km around the magnetometer, and M>3.0. Results indicate that there is an enhanced occurrence probability of Pc1 pulsations ~5–15 days in advance of the earthquakes, during the daytime. We quantify the statistical significance and show that such an enhancement is unlikely to have occurred due to chance alone. We then examine the effect of declustering our earthquake catalog, and show that even though significance decreases, there is still a statistically significant daytime enhancement prior to the earthquakes. Finally, we select only daytime Pc1 pulsations as the fiducial time of our analysis, and show that earthquakes are ~3–5 times more likely to occur in the week following these pulsations, than normal. Comparing these results to other events, it is preliminarily shown that the normal earthquake probability is unaffected by geomagnetic activity, or a random event sequence.

  17. Developing a new perspective to study the health of survivors of Sichuan earthquakes in China: a study on the effect of post-earthquake rescue policies on survivors' health-related quality of life.

    Liang, Ying; Wang, Xiukun


    Sichuan is a province in China with an extensive history of earthquakes. Recent earthquakes, including the Lushan earthquake in 2013, have resulted in thousands of people losing their homes and their families. However, there is a research gap on the efficiency of government support policies. Therefore, this study develops a new perspective to study the health of earthquake survivors, based on the effect of post-earthquake rescue policies on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of survivors of the Sichuan earthquake. This study uses data from a survey conducted in five hard-hit counties (Wenchuan, Qingchuan, Mianzhu, Lushan, and Dujiangyan) in Sichuan in 2013. A total of 2,000 questionnaires were distributed, and 1,672 were returned; the response rate was 83.6%. Results of the rescue policies scale and Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 (SF-36) scale passed the reliability test. The confirmatory factor analysis model showed that the physical component summary (PCS) directly affected the mental component summary (MCS). The results of structural equation model regarding the effects of rescue policies on HRQOL showed that the path coefficients of six policies (education, orphans, employment, poverty, legal, and social rescue policies) to the PCS of survivors were all positive and passed the test of significance. Finally, although only the path coefficient of the educational rescue policy to the MCS of survivors was positive and passed the test of significance, the other five policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. The general HRQOL of survivors is not ideal; the survivors showed a low satisfaction with the post-earthquake rescue policies. Further, the six post-earthquake rescue policies significantly improved the HRQOL of survivors and directly affected the promotion of the PCS of survivors. Aside from the educational rescue policy, all other policies affected the MCS indirectly through the PCS. This finding indicates relatively large differences in

  18. Mental health and related factors after the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami.

    Yukari Yokoyama

    Full Text Available Mental health is one of the most important issues facing disaster survivors. The purpose of this study is to determine the prevalence and correlates of mental health problems in survivors of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami at 6-11 months after the disaster. The questionnaire and notification were sent to the survivors in three municipalities in the Tohoku area of the Northern part of Honshu, Japan's largest island, between September 2011 and February 2012. Questionnaires were sent to 12,772, 11,411, and 18,648 residents in the Yamada, Otsuchi, and Rikuzentakata municipalities, respectively. Residents were asked to bring the completed questionnaires to their health check-ups. A total of 11,124 or (26.0% of them underwent health check-ups, and 10,198 were enrolled. We excluded 179 for whom a K6 score was missing and two who were both 17 years of age, which left 10,025 study participants (3,934 male and 6,091 female, mean age 61.0 years. K6 was used to measure mental health problems. The respondents were classified into moderate (5-12 of K6 and serious mental health problems (13+. A total of 42.6% of the respondents had moderate or serious mental health problems. Multivariate analysis showed that women were significantly associated with mental health problems. Other variables associated with mental health problems were: younger male, health complaints, severe economic status, relocations, and lack of a social network. An interaction effect of sex and economic status on severe mental health problems was statistically significant. Our findings suggest that mental health problems were prevalent in survivors of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. For men and women, health complaints, severe economic status, relocations, and lack of social network may be important risk factors of poor mental health. For men, interventions focusing on economic support may be particularly useful in reducing mental health problems after the disaster.

  19. Earthquake vulnerability evaluation Faizabad district of Kermanshah

    Saba Naderi


    Full Text Available This paper as examplehas been studied Faizabad district of Kermanshah and to reach its main purpose, which is reducing the damagecaused by the earthquake on the Faizabad district is been providedand in subsidiary purposes part the research is tried identify factors influence in vulnerability earthquakes,pay to provide the factors required; All these factors havean impact on reducing earthquake vulnerability. This data using geological data, soil texture, getting satelliteimages and layering over Arc Gis software identified and for long term periods donepredict using relation kernel PSHA also. In determining the level ofenvironmental risk is to use software crisis. Finally, by recognizing the riskzone, solutions for Faizabad district offered.

  20. Earthquake volume, fault plane area, seismic energy, strain, deformation and related quantities

    S. J. DUDA


    Full Text Available An effort is made to improve Benioff's method for investigation
    of strain release in aftershock sequences. The improvement
    may be summarized as follows:
    1. Earthquake volume increases with magnitude, instead of being
    constant. A relation is given, relating volume to magnitude.
    2. A revised energy-magnitude formula is used.
    3. The seismic gain ratio, i. e. the ratio between seismic energy and
    elastic strain energy, probably increases with magnitude, instead of being
    constant. Likewise, the ratio of fault plane area of the main shock to the
    vertical section through the aftershock volume increases with magnitude.
    4. The seismic energy density, the elastic strain energy density as
    well as strain are independent of magnitude.
    5. The deformation, i. e. the total strain in the aftershock zone, increases
    with magnitude at the same rate as seismic energy and volume do.
    As a consequence of these improvements some earlier published strain
    release characteristics are reconstructed, this time as deformation characteristics

  1. Aspects of Decision-Making for Risk Reduction during the Prolonged Earthquake Sequence in Canterbury, New Zealand

    Wein, A. M.; Potter, S.; Becker, J.; Ratliff, J. L.; Hudson-Doyle, E.


    An earthquake sequence is a prolonged natural hazard event. Scientists can dynamically forecast aftershock frequency within bounds of uncertainty. We examine how this capability can be used in decision-making to reduce risk during a period of heightened seismicity. We draw from experience of the Canterbury earthquake sequence initiated by a magnitude 7.1 mainshock on September 4, 2010 near the city of Christchurch, a population of 370,000. The sequence impacted the built, economic, social and natural environments of the Canterbury region. We study the use of aftershock forecasts in decision-making across the roles of policy makers, emergency managers and responders, critical infrastructure providers, insurers, communication officers, scientists, and the public. We held focus groups and interviews involving 53 participants using a semi-structured message centered approach in May and June of 2013. Transcripts from the focus groups and interviews were thematically coded using qualitative analysis. Responses to a pre-questionnaire suggested that aftershock information for decision-making increases slightly in importance throughout the four phases of a disaster - mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. We summarize our findings from this research, including the use and barriers to the use of aftershock forecasts in decision-making across the disaster phases by roles conflicts of interest that arise in the decision-making hierarchy challenges with providing and using forecasts during a prolonged event. Finally, we reflect on implications for Operational Earthquake Forecasting and how our findings may be generalized to other prolonged hazards.

  2. Relative risk regression models with inverse polynomials.

    Ning, Yang; Woodward, Mark


    The proportional hazards model assumes that the log hazard ratio is a linear function of parameters. In the current paper, we model the log relative risk as an inverse polynomial, which is particularly suitable for modeling bounded and asymmetric functions. The parameters estimated by maximizing the partial likelihood are consistent and asymptotically normal. The advantages of the inverse polynomial model over the ordinary polynomial model and the fractional polynomial model for fitting various asymmetric log relative risk functions are shown by simulation. The utility of the method is further supported by analyzing two real data sets, addressing the specific question of the location of the minimum risk threshold.

  3. Earthquake induced liquefaction hazard, probability and risk assessment in the city of Kolkata, India: its historical perspective and deterministic scenario

    Nath, Sankar Kumar; Srivastava, Nishtha; Ghatak, Chitralekha; Adhikari, Manik Das; Ghosh, Ambarish; Sinha Ray, S. P.


    Liquefaction-induced ground failure is one amongst the leading causes of infrastructure damage due to the impact of large earthquakes in unconsolidated, non-cohesive, water saturated alluvial terrains. The city of Kolkata is located on the potentially liquefiable alluvial fan deposits of Ganga-Bramhaputra-Meghna Delta system with subsurface litho-stratigraphic sequence comprising of varying percentages of clay, cohesionless silt, sand, and gravel interbedded with decomposed wood and peat. Additionally, the region has moderately shallow groundwater condition especially in the post-monsoon seasons. In view of burgeoning population, there had been unplanned expansion of settlements in the hazardous geological, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions exposing the city to severe liquefaction hazard. The 1897 Shillong and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes both of M w 8.1 reportedly induced Modified Mercalli Intensity of IV-V and VI-VII respectively in the city reportedly triggering widespread to sporadic liquefaction condition with surface manifestation of sand boils, lateral spreading, ground subsidence, etc., thus posing a strong case for liquefaction potential analysis in the terrain. With the motivation of assessing seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk of the city of Kolkata through a consorted federal funding stipulated for all the metros and upstart urban centers in India located in BIS seismic zones III, IV, and V with population more than one million, an attempt has been made here to understand the liquefaction susceptibility condition of Kolkata under the impact of earthquake loading employing modern multivariate techniques and also to predict deterministic liquefaction scenario of the city in the event of a probabilistic seismic hazard condition with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and a return period of 475 years. We conducted in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations in the city encompassing 435 km2 area. The stochastically

  4. Electromagnetic Abnormity Observed at Sujiatun Seismic Station and Its Relation to Earthquake

    Li Mei; Cheng Wenhai; Hou Wankai; Yin Shipeng


    The Sujiatun seismic station is a local professional seismic observation station in the city of Shenyang, Liaoning province. Electromagnetic radiations observation apparatus, of the type EMAOS-L, are used there. In this paper, four years observation data and observed earthquakes with Ms ≥ 4.0 were collected in the Sujiatun observation station. The characteristics of electromagnetic radiation abnormities and earthquakes are analyzed from such aspects as capabilities of the apparatus used, tectonic structure, origins of electromagnetic radiations and so on. By analysis, precursor abnormities observed at this observation station are remarkable. The electric and magnetic abnormities are with good synchronism and the abnormities can respond better to the earthquakes with the epicenter distance being less than 20km and taking place in the upper crust. At the same time, for earthquakes with large magnitudes, the variation of precursor abnormities shows a periodic diurnal variation.

  5. Earthquake Risk Management of Underground Lifelines in the Urban Area of Catania

    Grasso, S.; Maugeri, M.


    Lifelines typically include the following five utility networks: potable water, sewage natural gas, electric power, telecommunication and transportation system. The response of lifeline systems, like gas and water networks, during a strong earthquake, can be conveniently evaluated with the estimated average number of ruptures per km of pipe. These ruptures may be caused either by fault ruptures crossing, or by permanent deformations of the soil mass (landslides, liquefaction), or by transient soil deformations caused by seismic wave propagation. The possible consequences of damaging earthquakes on transportation systems may be the reduction or the interruption of traffic flow, as well as the impact on the emergency response and on the recovery assistance. A critical element in the emergency management is the closure of roads due to fallen obstacles and debris of collapsed buildings. The earthquake-induced damage to buried pipes is expressed in terms of repair rate (RR), defined as the number of repairs divided by the pipe length (km) exposed to a particular level of seismic demand; this number is a function of the pipe material (and joint type), of the pipe diameter and of the ground shaking level, measured in terms of peak horizontal ground velocity (PGV) or permanent ground displacement (PGD). The development of damage algorithms for buried pipelines is primarily based on empirical evidence, tempered with engineering judgment and sometimes by analytical formulations. For the city of Catania, in the present work use has been made of the correlation between RR and peak horizontal ground velocity by American Lifelines Alliance (ALA, 2001), for the verifications of main buried pipelines. The performance of the main buried distribution networks has been evaluated for the Level I earthquake scenario (January 11, 1693 event I = XI, M 7.3) and for the Level II earthquake scenario (February 20, 1818 event I = IX, M 6.2). Seismic damage scenario of main gas pipelines and

  6. Multi-Sensor Observations of Earthquake Related Atmospheric Signals over Major Geohazard Validation Sites

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Davindenko, D.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.


    We are conducting a scientific validation study involving multi-sensor observations in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several atmospheric and environmental parameters, which we found, are associated with the earthquakes, namely: thermal infrared radiation, outgoing long-wavelength radiation, ionospheric electron density, and atmospheric temperature and humidity. For first time we applied this approach to selected GEOSS sites prone to earthquakes or volcanoes. This provides a new opportunity to cross validate our results with the dense networks of in-situ and space measurements. We investigated two different seismic aspects, first the sites with recent large earthquakes, viz.- Tohoku-oki (M9, 2011, Japan) and Emilia region (M5.9, 2012,N. Italy). Our retrospective analysis of satellite data has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Second, we did a retrospective analysis to check the re-occurrence of similar anomalous behavior in atmosphere/ionosphere over three regions with distinct geological settings and high seismicity: Taiwan, Japan and Kamchatka, which include 40 major earthquakes (M>5.9) for the period of 2005-2009. We found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives; false positives were less then 10%. Our initial results suggest that multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area that could be explained by a coupling between the observed physical parameters and earthquake preparation processes.

  7. Ionospheric anomalies related to the (M = 7.3), August 27, 2012, Puerto earthquake, (M = 6.8), August 30, 2012 Jan Mayen Island earthquake, and (M = 7.6), August 31, 2012, Philippines earthquake: two-dimensional principal component analysis.

    Lin, Jyh-Woei


    Two-dimensional principal component analysis (2DPCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) are used to examine the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) data during the time period from 00:00 on August 21 to 12: 45 on August 31 (UT), which are 10 days before the M = 7.6 Philippines earthquake at 12:47:34 on August 31, 2012 (UT) with the depth at 34.9 km. From the results by using 2DPCA, a TEC precursor of Philippines earthquake is found during the time period from 4:25 to 4:40 on August 28, 2012 (UT) with the duration time of at least 15 minutes. Another earthquake-related TEC anomaly is detectable for the time period from 04:35 to 04:40 on August 27, 2012 (UT) with the duration time of at least 5 minutes during the Puerto earthquake at 04: 37:20 on August 27, 2012 (UT) (M(w) = 7.3) with the depth at 20.3 km. The precursor of the Puerto earthquake is not detectable. TEC anomaly is not to be found related to the Jan Mayen Island earthquake (M w = 6.8) at 13:43:24 on August 30, 2012 (UT). These earthquake-related TEC anomalies are detectable by using 2DPCA rather than PCA. They are localized nearby the epicenters of the Philippines and Puerto earthquakes.

  8. Impact on Risk of Data-Constrained Inferences of the Variability of the Recurrence of Ground-Rupturing Earthquakes

    Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.


    The concept of the time-dependence of the occurrence of large events on a given geologic structure emerged from the elastic rebound theory of Reid (1910). Models were developed or chosen to account for it. For the most part, those models need the long-term recurrence time, a measure of the allowed short-term variability of the recurrence time (e.g., the coefficient of variation CoV), and are applied in conjunction with the time since the last event whenever possible. Geologic estimates of the long-term have been used for a long time. CoV values, on the other hand, were first assigned usually through a logic-tree approach featuring a preferred value and one or two alternative values. Later-on a generic CoV value was determined on a global dataset (Elssworth et al 1999). It is only recently that earthquake timing data at a site have become numerous and high resolution enough to warrant data-constrained estimates of CoV. Whereas a logic-tree approach, meant to formulate epistemic uncertainties, leads to different (weighted) estimates of risk metrics, an approach in which the model parameters (such as CoV) are constrained by earthquake data presents a different view of risk uncertainty. Indeed, when the data are not informative, the resulting hazard rate curve vs. time since last event is flat. As information becomes integrated in the model, if the fault indeed exhibits a time-dependent behavior, the hazard rate curve shows variability with elapsed time. In terms of risk, a flat hazard rate translates into a time-independent view of risk whereas a time-varying hazard rate results in short-term variations in risk estimates. In this view, the hazard rate at a given time does not have an uncertainty associated to it (in the same way that a probability density function does not have an uncertainty associated to it). Its value integrates all the uncertainties coming from model and data. This approach allows a seamless update of risk metrics as new earthquake data becomes

  9. Risk Assessment and Treatment Countermeasures for the Barrier Lakes of Wenchuan Earthquake on May 12th, 2008

    ZHANG Fawang; ZHANG Zhaoji; HAN Zhantao; SUN Jianping; XIAO Guoqiang


    This paper introduced the first hand investigation results of the risk and treatment measures for the barrier lakes triggered by the earthquake of Wenchuan. Characteristics of 10 barrier lakes were investigated and analyzed; procedure and methods for barrier lake treatment were brought forward. The dams of the barrier lakes can be classified as two classes: block rock in the south and loose deposit in the north. All the barrier dams were stable at the time of investigation, but water drainage channel needed to be constructed and to be protected from blockage or collapse. After the rain season of 2008, some dams needed to be consolidated, and change the barrier lakes to reservoirs.

  10. Researchers start complying with the requests of city administrators on earthquake risk issues: a recent case for Catania, Italy

    Finazzi, D.; Frassine, L.; Pessina, V.


    Earthquake risk assessments and scenario studies carried out within national or European projects, not only have resonance in the research community, but they are becoming of increasing of interest for local administrators because of the detailed level of analysis and the nature of the results, that could be readily used. Notwithstanding their interest, the local administrators seem to have difficulties in transferring easily this kind of information into urban emergency plans. To overcome such difficulties, some damage prediction studies could be usefully re-focused on objectives that meet more directly the practical needs of city officials, such as identifying the streets that could be obstructed by the debris caused by the failure of damaged buildings in case of strong earthquakes. For Catania, a city in the Mediterranean with high exposure to earthquake risk, local operators have indicated a densely inhabited section with a critical ratio between the buildings elevation and the width of the roads. In this section, a damage scenario has been evaluated for residential buildings, considering also the strategic facilities such as schools, hospitals, city offices, together with the lifeline networks and the emergency shelter areas. The vulnerability assessment of the buildings involved is facilitated by the data gathered in a detailed recent survey (LSU survey), being now revisited and re-evaluated in the ongoing EC project RISK-UE. The ground shaking hazard has been estimated according to a deterministic scenario for an M7.2 earthquake occurring on a fault at some 12 km shortest distance from Catania. For the structures that are likely to collapse (and for those with predicted damage close to collapse), the volume of building debris has been estimated in order to quantify the fraction of it obstructing adjacent roads. Consequently, it is possible to identify the preferential escape routes to the emergency shelter areas. Different emergency levels could be

  11. Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...

  12. Reduction of earthquake disasters

    陈顒; 陈祺福; 黄静; 徐文立


    The article summarizes the researches on mitigating earthquake disasters of the past four years in China. The studyof earthquake disasters′ quantification shows that the losses increase remarkably when population concentrates inurban area and social wealth increase. The article also summarizes some new trends of studying earthquake disas-ters′ mitigation, which are from seismic hazard to seismic risk, from engineering disaster to social disaster andintroduces the community-centered approach.

  13. Cancer risks related to electricity production.

    Boffetta, P; Cardis, E; Vainio, H; Coleman, M P; Kogevinas, M; Nordberg, G; Parkin, D M; Partensky, C; Shuker, D; Tomatis, L


    The International Agency for Research on Cancer has previously evaluated the cancer risks associated with fossil fuel-based industrial processes such as coal gastification and coke production, substances and mixtures such as coal tars, coal tar pitch and mineral oils, and a number of substances emitted from fossil-fuelled plants such as benzo[a]pyrene and other polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, chromium, nickel, lead and formaldehyde. Based on these evaluations and other evidence from the literature, the carcinogenic risks to the general population and occupational groups from the fossil fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle and renewable cycles are reviewed. Cancer risks from waste disposal, accidents and misuses, and electricity distribution are also considered. No cycle appears to be totally free from cancer risk, but the quantification of the effects of such exposures (in particular of those involving potential exposure to large amounts of carcinogens, such as coal, oil and nuclear) requires the application of methods which are subject to considerable margins of error. Uncertainties due to inadequate data and unconfirmed assumptions are discussed. Cancer risks related to the operation of renewable energy sources are negligible, although there may be some risks from construction of such installations. The elements of knowledge at our disposal do not encourage any attempt toward a quantitative comparative risk assessment. However, even in the absence of an accurate quantification of risk, qualitative indication of carcinogenic hazards should lead to preventive measures.

  14. Quantitative risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall based on direct costs of urban buildings

    Vega, Johnny Alexander; Hidalgo, Cesar Augusto


    This paper outlines a framework for risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall in urban buildings in the city of Medellín - Colombia, applying a model that uses a geographic information system (GIS). We applied a computer model that includes topographic, geological, geotechnical and hydrological features of the study area to assess landslide hazards using the Newmark's pseudo-static method, together with a probabilistic approach based on the first order and second moment method (FOSM). The physical vulnerability assessment of buildings was conducted using structural fragility indexes, as well as the definition of damage level of buildings via decision trees and using Medellin's cadastral inventory data. The probability of occurrence of a landslide was calculated assuming that an earthquake produces horizontal ground acceleration (Ah) and considering the uncertainty of the geotechnical parameters and the soil saturation conditions of the ground. The probability of occurrence was multiplied by the structural fragility index values and by the replacement value of structures. The model implemented aims to quantify the risk caused by this kind of disaster in an area of the city of Medellín based on different values of Ah and an analysis of the damage costs of this disaster to buildings under different scenarios and structural conditions. Currently, 62% of "Valle de Aburra" where the study area is located is under very low condition of landslide hazard and 38% is under low condition. If all buildings in the study area fulfilled the requirements of the Colombian building code, the costs of a landslide would be reduced 63% compared with the current condition. An earthquake with a return period of 475 years was used in this analysis according to the seismic microzonation study in 2002.

  15. Role of the Internet in Anticipating and Mitigating Earthquake Catastrophes, and the Emergence of Personal Risk Management (Invited)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.


    Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make “official” forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe (“cat”) bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by and For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the world’s population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the “long tail” of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally

  16. Scaling Relations of Local Magnitude versus Moment Magnitude for Sequences of Similar Earthquakes in Switzerland

    Bethmann, F.


    Theoretical considerations and empirical regressions show that, in the magnitude range between 3 and 5, local magnitude, ML, and moment magnitude, Mw, scale 1:1. Previous studies suggest that for smaller magnitudes this 1:1 scaling breaks down. However, the scatter between ML and Mw at small magnitudes is usually large and the resulting scaling relations are therefore uncertain. In an attempt to reduce these uncertainties, we first analyze the ML versus Mw relation based on 195 events, induced by the stimulation of a geothermal reservoir below the city of Basel, Switzerland. Values of ML range from 0.7 to 3.4. From these data we derive a scaling of ML ~ 1:5Mw over the given magnitude range. We then compare peak Wood-Anderson amplitudes to the low-frequency plateau of the displacement spectra for six sequences of similar earthquakes in Switzerland in the range of 0:5 ≤ ML ≤ 4:1. Because effects due to the radiation pattern and to the propagation path between source and receiver are nearly identical at a particular station for all events in a given sequence, the scatter in the data is substantially reduced. Again we obtain a scaling equivalent to ML ~ 1:5Mw. Based on simulations using synthetic source time functions for different magnitudes and Q values estimated from spectral ratios between downhole and surface recordings, we conclude that the observed scaling can be explained by attenuation and scattering along the path. Other effects that could explain the observed magnitude scaling, such as a possible systematic increase of stress drop or rupture velocity with moment magnitude, are masked by attenuation along the path.

  17. Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

    Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz


    This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented.

  18. The Migration Characteristics of Strong Earthquakes on the North-South Seismic Belt and Its Relation with the South Asia Seismic Belt

    Wang Yipeng; Ma Jin; Li Chuanyou


    Migration of strong earthquakes (M≥7.0) along the North-South Seismic Belt of China since 1500 AD shows three patterns: Approximately equal time and distance interval migration from N to S, varied patterns of migration from S to N and grouped strong earthquake activity in a certain period over the entire seismic belt. Analysis of strong earthquakes in the past hundred years shows that the seismicity on the North-South Seismic Belt is also associated with strong earthquake activities on the South Asia Seismic Belt which extends from Myanmar to Sumatra, Indonesia. Strong earthquakes on the former belt often lag several months or years behind the quakes occurring on the later belt. So, after the occurrence of the December 26, 2004 M8.7 great earthquake off the western coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, the possibility of occurrence of strong earthquakes on the North-South Seismic Belt of China cannot be ignored. The above-mentioned migration characteristics of strong earthquakes are related to the northeastward collision and subduction of the India Plate as well as the interaction between the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and the stable and hard Ordos and Alashan Massifs at its northeastern margin.

  19. Risk Assessment of Malaria Prevalence in Ludian, Yongshan, and Jinggu Counties, Yunnan Province, After 2014 Earthquake Disaster.

    Feng, Jun; Xia, Zhigui; Zhang, Li; Cheng, Siyuan; Wang, Rubo


    The objective of this study was to investigate malaria prevalence after the 2014 earthquakes in Ludian, Yongshan, and Jinggu counties, Yunnan Province, China. We collected and analyzed epidemiological data and made a risk assessment of transmission probability. From January 2005 to July 2015, 87 malaria cases were reported in the three counties, most of which (81.6%) occurred between 2005 and 2009, with five cases reported in Jinggu County between January 2014 and July 2015, of which one case was reported after the earthquake. In addition, no local transmission occurred in the three counties from 2010, and 95.5% of imported malaria occurred in patients who had returned from Myanmar. The townships of Lehong, Qingsheng, and Weiyuan were the main endemic areas in the three counties. The probability of malaria transmission in the three counties was low, but Jinggu County had a higher risk due to the existence of infected patients and an appropriate vector. With sporadic cases reported annually, close monitoring should continue to enhance early detection of a possible malaria outbreak.

  20. Preface to the special issue on seismoelectromagnetics: Earthquake-related phenomena, laboratory evidences and their mechanism

    Jiadong Qian


    The earthquake prediction is commonly recognized as one of the most difficult problems in natural science with globalization of the world and also one of the most important social issues concerning the human survival and social securities due to the possible paroxysmal and huge disasters from strong earthquakes.Its difficulties in science,have caused long term of disputations in the world,about whether or not it is worth making the researches on it in the present stage;and its importance in society development,however,has made the governments in many countries to adopt the countermeasures not only for mitigating,in maximum possibilities,the losses in peoples live and properties,but also for,supporting scientific researches on earthquake prediction.

  1. Earthquake Risk - EARTHQUAKE_LIQUEFACTION_POTENTIAL_MM81_IN: Liquefaction Potential of Surficial Materials in Indiana (Indiana Geological Survey, 1:500,000, Polygon Shapefile)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — EARTHQUAKE_LIQUEFACTION_POTENTIAL_MM81_IN is a polygon shapefile that shows highly generalized categories (low, moderate, and high) of liquefaction potential, based...

  2. Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

    Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.


    We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

  3. [The hazards of reconstruction: anthropology of dwelling and social health risk in the L'Aquila (Central Italy) post-earthquake].

    Ciccozzi, Antonello


    Even starting from the purpose of restoring the damage caused by a natural disaster, the post-earthquake reconstructions imply the risk of triggering a set of social disasters that may affect the public health sphere. In the case of the L'Aquila earthquake this risk seems to emerge within the urban planning on two levels of dwelling: at a landscape level, where there has been a change in the shape of the city towards a sprawling-sprinkling process; at an architectural level, on the problematic relationship between the politics and the poetics of cultural heritage protection and the goal to get restoration works capable to ensure the citizens seismic safety.

  4. Testing the critical exponent in the relation between stress drop of earthquake and lead time of seismic electric signal

    E. Dologlou


    Full Text Available The application of new data in the power law relation between the stress drop of the earthquake and the lead time of the precursory seismic electric signal led to an exponent which falls in the range of the values of critical exponents for fracture and it is in excellent agreement with a previous one found by (Dologlou, 2012. In addition, this exponent is very close to the one reported by Varotsos and Alexopoulos (1984a, which interconnects the amplitude of the precursory seismic electric signals (SES and the magnitude of the impending earthquake. Hence, the hypothesis that underlying dynamic processes evolving to criticality prevail in the pre-focal area when the SES is emitted is significantly supported.

  5. Earthquake-related soft-sediment deformation structures in Palaeogene on the continental shelf of the East China Sea


    Earthquake,as disastrous events in geological history,can be recorded as soft-sediment deformation.In the Palaeogene of the East China Sea shelf,the soft-sediment deformation related to earthquake event is recognized as seismic micro-fractures,micro-corrugated laminations,liquefied veins,'vibrated liquefied layers',deformed cross laminations and convolute laminations,load structures,flame structures,brecciation,slump structures and seismodisconformity.There exists a lateral continuum,the wide spatial distribution and the local vertical continuous sequences of seismites including slump,liquefaction and brecciation.In the Palaeogene of East China Sea shelf,where typical soft-sediment deformation structures were developed,clastic deposits of tidal-flat,delta and river facies are the main background deposits of Middle-Upper Eocene Pinghu Formation and Oligocene Huagang Formation.This succession also records diagnostic marks of event deposits and basinal tectonic activities in the form of seismites.

  6. Study of the Relation Between the Features of Fault Deformation Tendency Anomaly and Earthquake Activity in the West of China

    Chen Bing; Jiang Zaisen; Zhao Zhencai


    Using the tendentious accumulation rate of crustal deformation, Dc, the spatial distributionfeatures of deformation across fault in the West of China was studied; the regional patterns ofdeformation accumulation induced by fault activity was established and its seismogenicmeaning was discussed. The types of fault deformation evolution in the time domain and thefeatures of change of large extent anomaly in fault deformation which occurred in 1995 ~ 1996was analyzed comprehensively. It was indicated definitely that 1995~ 1996 is the turningpoint of fault network activity in the West of China since the 1990s; it is closely related to thechange of main seismic active regions in the West of China, i.e., the alternation of strong/weak stages and the change of action range of tectonic stress field in the Qinghai-Tibet blockand its environs; and hence it is of medium- and short-term precursor meaning for the changeof the overall pattern of earthquake activity in the West of China in the year 1996. On such abasis, a preliminary investigation of the mechanical mechanism and block movementbackground was made. We hold that the formation of NE-trending band of Ms6.0earthquakes in 1988~1996 and NW-trending band of Ms5.0 earthquakes in 1997~1999 canprove in mechanics that the West of China is now in a state that the N-S stress weakensrelatively but E-W stress strengthens relatively and predominates.

  7. Environmental risk evaluation to minimize impacts within the area affected by the Wenchuan earthquake.

    Du, Pengfei; Chen, Jining; Chen, Chao; Liu, Yi; Liu, Jianguo; Wang, Hongtao; Zhang, Xiaojian


    Earthquakes can be devastating to built infrastructure and the natural environment, as evidenced by the March 2011, M=9.0 earthquake, and subsequent tsunami, in Japan. As seen in the Japanese event, environmental damage caused by secondary disasters (tsunami, leakage from a nuclear reactor) can equal or exceed the impacts of the primary event. In order to develop an environmental assessment system to examine secondary disasters, a comprehensive environmental impact evaluation was conducted after the Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on 12 May 2008 in the Sichuan Province, China. This evaluation focused on several key environmental elements such as wastewater, drinking water, soil, solid waste, radiation, and ecosystem-level effects. As part of this assessment, an analysis of root causes and potential solutions was conducted for key issues such as population relocation and resettlement in temporary dwellings, recovery of environmental protection functions, industrial development strategies and production recovery. Methods for post-quake environmental assessment were developed, utilizing GIS-based techniques for spatial evaluation of primary and secondary disaster patterns. The goal of this exercise was the development of effective assessment methods that can be rapidly applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce and mitigate damage caused by secondary disasters, and facilitate the recovery of impaired environmental management structure and function.




    Full Text Available Over the recent decades, many public buildings located in a region of highseismic hazard have been subjected to simultaneous effect of abnormal loads against which they were not specifically designed. Hence, it is necessary to investigate the critical events occurring on the structure during its lifetime in order to investigate the structure’s performance based on a multi-hazard approach. The current study proposes a probabilistic framework for multihazard risk associated with collapse limit state of RC moment frame with shear wall structure, which is subjected to blast threats in the presence of seismic risk. The annual risk of structural collapse is calculated taking into account both the collapse caused by an earthquake event and the blast-induced progressive collapse. The blast fragility is calculated using a simulation procedure of Monte Carlo for generating blast scenarios. As a case study, the blast and seismic fragilities of a generic eight-story RC moment frame with shear wall building located in high seismic zone and subjected to the effect of blast load are calculated and implemented in the framework of a multi-hazard risk. The findings of the current research show a considerable risk; finally, the importance of taking the blast measure into account when designing strategic structures in areas of high seismic risk is highlighted.

  9. Comprehensive observation and modeling of earthquake and temperature-related seismic velocity changes in northern Chile with passive image interferometry

    Richter, Tom; Sens-Schönfelder, Christoph; Kind, Rainer; Asch, Günter


    We report on earthquake and temperature-related velocity changes in high-frequency autocorrelations of ambient noise data from seismic stations of the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile project in northern Chile. Daily autocorrelation functions are analyzed over a period of 5 years with passive image interferometry. A short-term velocity drop recovering after several days to weeks is observed for the Mw 7.7 Tocopilla earthquake at most stations. At the two stations PB05 and PATCX, we observe a long-term velocity decrease recovering over the course of around 2 years. While station PB05 is located in the rupture area of the Tocopilla earthquake, this is not the case for station PATCX. Station PATCX is situated in an area influenced by salt sediment in the vicinity of Salar Grande and presents a superior sensitivity to ground acceleration and periodic surface-induced changes. Due to this high sensitivity, we observe a velocity response of several regional earthquakes at PATCX, and we can show for the first time a linear relationship between the amplitude of velocity drops and peak ground acceleration for data from a single station. This relationship does not hold true when comparing different stations due to the different sensitivity of the station environments. Furthermore, we observe periodic annual velocity changes at PATCX. Analyzing data at a temporal resolution below 1 day, we are able to identify changes with a period of 24 h, too. The characteristics of the seismic velocity with annual and daily periods indicate an atmospheric origin of the velocity changes that we confirm with a model based on thermally induced stress. This comprehensive model explains the lag time dependence of the temperature-related seismic velocity changes involving the distribution of temperature fluctuations, the relationship between temperature, stress and velocity change, plus autocorrelation sensitivity kernels.

  10. Defeating Earthquakes

    Stein, R. S.


    The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

  11. Brief Report: Reducing Earthquake-Related Fears in Victim and Nonvictim Children

    Karairmak, Ozlem; Aydin, GuL


    In this study, the authors investigated the fears of earthquake victim and nonvictim elementary school students and the effectiveness of an activity-based cognitive fear reduction (ABCF) procedure developed by the authors. To measure fear, the authors collected data from 266 participants using a modified version of the Fear Survey Schedule for…

  12. Brief Report: Reducing Earthquake-Related Fears in Victim and Nonvictim Children

    Karairmak, Ozlem; Aydin, GuL


    In this study, the authors investigated the fears of earthquake victim and nonvictim elementary school students and the effectiveness of an activity-based cognitive fear reduction (ABCF) procedure developed by the authors. To measure fear, the authors collected data from 266 participants using a modified version of the Fear Survey Schedule for…

  13. Simplified design and evaluation of liquid storage tanks relative to earthquake loading

    Poole, A.B.


    A summary of earthquake-induced damage in liquid storage tanks is provided. The general analysis steps for dynamic response of fluid-filled tanks subject to horizontal ground excitation are discussed. This work will provide major attention to the understanding of observed tank-failure modes. These modes are quite diverse in nature, but many of the commonly appearing patterns are believed to be shell buckling. A generalized and simple-to-apply shell loading will be developed using Fluegge shell theory. The input to this simplified analysis will be horizontal ground acceleration and tank shell form parameters. A dimensionless parameter will be developed and used in predictions of buckling resulting from earthquake-imposed loads. This prediction method will be applied to various tank designs that have failed during major earthquakes and during shaker table tests. Tanks that have not failed will also be reviewed. A simplified approach will be discussed for early design and evaluation of tank shell parameters and materials to provide a high confidence of low probability of failure during earthquakes.

  14. Strong Earthquake Motion Estimates for the UCSB Campus, and Related Response of the Engineering 1 Building

    Archuleta, R.; Bonilla, F.; Doroudian, M.; Elgamal, A.; Hueze, F.


    This is the second report on the UC/CLC Campus Earthquake Program (CEP), concerning the estimation of exposure of the U.C. Santa Barbara campus to strong earthquake motions (Phase 2 study). The main results of Phase 1 are summarized in the current report. This document describes the studies which resulted in site-specific strong motion estimates for the Engineering I site, and discusses the potential impact of these motions on the building. The main elements of Phase 2 are: (1) determining that a M 6.8 earthquake on the North Channel-Pitas Point (NCPP) fault is the largest threat to the campus. Its recurrence interval is estimated at 350 to 525 years; (2) recording earthquakes from that fault on March 23, 1998 (M 3.2) and May 14, 1999 (M 3.2) at the new UCSB seismic station; (3) using these recordings as empirical Green's functions (EGF) in scenario earthquake simulations which provided strong motion estimates (seismic syntheses) at a depth of 74 m under the Engineering I site; 240 such simulations were performed, each with the same seismic moment, but giving a broad range of motions that were analyzed for their mean and standard deviation; (4) laboratory testing, at U.C. Berkeley and U.C. Los Angeles, of soil samples obtained from drilling at the UCSB station site, to determine their response to earthquake-type loading; (5) performing nonlinear soil dynamic calculations, using the soil properties determined in-situ and in the laboratory, to calculate the surface strong motions resulting from the seismic syntheses at depth; (6) comparing these CEP-generated strong motion estimates to acceleration spectra based on the application of state-of-practice methods - the IBC 2000 code, UBC 97 code and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), this comparison will be used to formulate design-basis spectra for future buildings and retrofits at UCSB; and (7) comparing the response of the Engineering I building to the CEP ground motion estimates and to the design

  15. Visualizing seismic risk and uncertainty: a review of related research.

    Bostrom, Ann; Anselin, Luc; Farris, Jeremy


    Government agencies and other authorities often communicate earthquake risks using maps derived from geographic information systems. Yet, little is known about the effects of these maps on risk perceptions. While mental models research and other approaches are available to inform risk communication text design, similar empirically derived guidance is lacking for visual risk communications, such as maps, which are likely to trump text in their impact and appeal. This paper reviews the empirical research that might inform such guidance. Research on graphs, spatial and visual perception, and map design suggests that graphics increase risk avoidance over numerical risk representations, and countable visuals, like dots, can increase the accuracy of perceived risks, but not always. Cartographic design features, such as color, animation, interactivity, and depth cues, are all candidates to represent risk and uncertainty and to influence risk perception. While there are robust known effects of color (e.g., red = danger), with some cultural variability, animation can increase the salience of otherwise obscure features but is not uniformly effective. Depth cues, dimensionality, and the extent to which a representation depicts versus symbolizes a scene will influence the viewer's perspective and perception, depending on the viewer's familiarity with the scene; their effects on risk perception remain unclear. The translation and representation of technical information about risk and uncertainty is critical to risk communication effectiveness. Our review suggests a handful of candidate criteria for evaluating the effects of risk visualizations, short of changes in behavior: accuracy, accessibility, retention, and perceived risk and usefulness.

  16. Multi-scale earthquake hazard and risk in the Chinese mainland and countermeasures for the preparedness, mitigation, and management: an overview

    Wu, Z.; Jiang, C.; Ma, T.


    Earthquake hazard and risk in the Chinese mainland exhibit multi-scale characteristics. Temporal scales from centuries to months, spatial scales from the whole mainland to specific engineering structures, and energy scales from great disastrous earthquakes to small earthquakes causing social disturbance and economic loss, feature the complexity of earthquake disasters. Coping with such complex challenge, several research and application projects have been undertaken since recent years. Lessons and experiences of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake contributed much to the launching and conducting of these projects. Understandings of the scientific problems and technical approaches taken in the mainstream studies in the Chinese mainland have no significant difference from those in the international scientific communities, albeit using of some of the terminologies have "cultural differences" - for instance, in the China Earthquake Administration (CEA), the terminology "earthquake forecast/prediction (study)" is generally used in a much broader sense, mainly indicating time-dependent seismic hazard at different spatio-temporal scales. Several scientific products have been produced serving the society in different forms. These scientific products have unique academic merits due to the long-term persistence feature and the forward forecast nature, which are all essential for the evaluation of the technical performance and the falsification of the scientific ideas. On the other hand, using the language of the "actor network theory (ANT)" in science studies (or the sociology of science), at present, the hierarchical "actors' network", making the science transformed to the actions of the public and government for the preparedness, mitigation, and management of multi-scale earthquake disasters, is still in need of careful construction and improvement.

  17. Risk Perception Related to Critical Infrastructure

    Badea Dorel


    Full Text Available Through this article it is brought to attention the essential aspects related to the perceived risks for critical infrastructure, both theoretically and practically, considering perception as an important input in the risk management process. For the practical part, the added value component in the field consists from the results of research based on survey, conducted in a wider framework of determining the level of awareness of the critical infrastructure issue by a pilot sample, consisting of persons with managerial and operational attributions in this sector.

  18. Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART in earthquake risk assessment: a case study of Delhi region, India

    Nishant Sinha


    Full Text Available This article is aimed at earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART, which is based on Saaty's multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique. The three specific study sites of Delhi were chosen for research as it corresponds to a typical patch of the urban environs, completely engrossed with residential, commercial and industrial units. The earthquake hazard affecting components are established in the form of geographic information system data-set layers including seismic zone, peak ground acceleration (PGA, soil characteristics, liquefaction potential, geological characteristics, land use, proximity to fault and epicentre. The physical vulnerability layers comprising building information, namely number of stories, year-built range, area, occupancy and construction type, derived from remote sensing imagery, were only considered for the current research. SMART was developed for earthquake risk assessment, and weights were derived both at component and its element level. Based on weighted overlay techniques, the earthquake hazard and vulnerability layers were created from which the risk maps were derived through multiplicative analysis. The developed risk maps may prove useful in decision-making process and formulating risk mitigation measures.

  19. 安宁河、则木河构造区近期强震危险性的概率估计%Probabilistic Estimate of Strong Earthquake Risk in the Anninghe-Zemuhe Tectonic Zone

    路鹏; 袁一凡; 袁洪克; 刘学领; 于晓辉; 段玉石


    After the 2008 Wenchuan magnitude 8. 0 earthquake, Anninghe-Zemuhe fracture region, which has been a frequent strong earthquake zone in history, located in the middle south of the South-North Seismic Zone, has received extensive attention. Based on analyzing the unique characters of strong earthquake activity in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone, this paper calculated the cumulative probability and conditional probability of strong earthquake above magnitude 6. 5 in the next decade in this area, by using the Weibull probability seismic risk estimation method. Moreover, by integrating previous studies on the Coulomb stress changes in peripheral faults and the potential focal zone caused by the Wenchuan earthquake rupture, we proposed a comprehensive judgment on the strong earthquake risk in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone. The results show that the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake would inevitably lead to middle and strong earthquakes above magnitude 5. 0 earthquake activates gradually in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone. According to the Weibull probability model, the probability of occurring strong earthquake above magnitude 6. 5 before 2021 in this area is as high as 0. 93, and the conditional probability is 0. 32. Therefore, in this tectonic zone, especially in the Mianning-Xichang region within this zone, the possibility of strong earthquake in the next decade is relatively high.%2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震发生后,作为历史强震多发地段——南北地震带中南段的安宁河、则木河构造区强地震危险性受到广泛关注.本文在分析安宁河、则木河构造区强震活动特点的基础上,利用地震危险性韦布尔概率估计方法,对该区未来10年内发生6.5级以上强震的累计概率和条件概率进行了计算,并结合前人针对汶川地震破裂对周边断层产生的库仑应力变化及潜在震源区判定等研究结果,对该区强地震危险性进行了综合判断.结果表明,汶川8.0级地震发生后,安

  20. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    Connell, Paul P


    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715\\/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  1. Radon, carbon dioxide and fault displacements in central Europe related to the Tōhoku Earthquake.

    Briestenský, M; Thinová, L; Praksová, R; Stemberk, J; Rowberry, M D; Knejflová, Z


    Tectonic instability may be measured directly using extensometers installed across active faults or it may be indicated by anomalous natural gas concentrations in the vicinity of active faults. This paper presents the results of fault displacement monitoring at two sites in the Bohemian Massif and Western Carpathians. These data have been supplemented by radon monitoring in the Mladeč Caves and by carbon dioxide monitoring in the Zbrašov Aragonite Caves. A significant period of tectonic instability is indicated by changes in the fault displacement trends and by anomalous radon and carbon dioxide concentrations. This was recorded around the time of the catastrophic MW=9.0 Tōhoku Earthquake, which hit eastern Japan on 11 March 2011. It is tentatively suggested that the Tōhoku Earthquake in the Pacific Ocean and the unusual geodynamic activity recorded in the Bohemian Massif and Western Carpathians both reflect contemporaneous global tectonic changes.

  2. Earthquakes, March-April 1989

    Person, W.J.


    The first major earthquake (7.0-7.9) of the year hit Mexico on April 25, killing three people and causing some damage. Earthquake-related deaths were also reported from Malawi, China, and New Britain. 

  3. Malnutrition and inflammation in acute kidney injury due to earthquake-related crush syndrome


    Abstract Background Malnutrition and inflammation are common and serious complications in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). However, the profile of these complications in patients with AKI caused by crush syndrome (CS) remains unclear. This study describes the clinical characteristics of malnutrition and inflammation in patients with AKI and CS due to the Wenchuan earthquake. Methods One thousand and twelve victims and eighteen healthy adults were recruited to the study. They were divi...

  4. A nonlinear strategy to reveal seismic precursory signatures in earthquake-related self-potential signals

    Telesca, Luciano; Lovallo, Michele; Ramirez-Rojas, Alejandro; Angulo-Brown, Fernando


    The time fluctuations of self-potential data, recorded at the monitoring station Acapulco (Mexico) during 1994-1996 in the seismic area of Guerrero-Oaxaca, are analyzed by means of the Fisher Information Measure (FIM), a nonlinear powerful method to investigate complex dynamics in time series. The time evolution of the FIM shows a clear correlation with the largest earthquakes that occurred in the monitored area during the observation period. Seismic precursory patterns in the FIM evolution are also revealed.

  5. "Routine" versus earthquake-related behavior in Na-K-Mg geothermometry records of Vrancea area (Romania)

    Mitrofan, H.; Chitea, F.; Marin, C.; Zugravescu, D.; Besutiu, L.; Tudorache, A.


    A several-years long geochemical monitoring operation has been initiated in April 2003, addressing a deep-origin groundwater discharge at Slanic Moldova, close to Vrancea seismic area. In order to interpret the evolution of the major cations concentrations, the Na-K-Mg geothermometer diagnosis method has been used. Similarly to results previously obtained worldwide (California; southwest Egypt), an anomalous fluctuation of the so-called "Na-K temperature" (a parameter which is assumed to approximate temperatures existing in a deep origin groundwater reservoir) has been detected on occurrence of a major earthquake (27 October 2004, Mw=5.8-6.0). The earthquake epicenter was positioned at 50 km away from the geochemical sampling site, the focal depth being approximately 95 km. Generally, Na-K temperature fluctuations may also occur "routinely", as a result of the admixture of various amounts of shallow, meteorically-derived waters, or due to variable degrees of chemical re-equilibration at shallower depths / lower temperatures. It was therefore important to investigate if the variations observed in the data values could be plausibly related to a seismogeneis process. In this respect, an appropriate diagnosis should be provided by a so-called "maturity index": that parameter estimates - by additionally considering the fast-readjusting K/Mg solute ratio - the hydrothermal solution departure from the chemical equilibrium state mirrored by the "Na-K temperature". By plotting the maturity index versus the Na-K temperature values for the Slanic Moldova spring, two distinct regimes became noticeable: one consisting of highly correlated data-points, occurring as a dense "cluster", and the other one including a series of more poorly correlated data-points, which appeared to "drift away" from the main "cluster". The "cluster" regime persisted during the entire period (in excess of 3 years) that followed the strongest Vrancea earthquake (27 October 2004, Mw=5.8-6.0) recorded

  6. Soft-sediment Deformation Structures Related to Earthquake from the Devonian of the Eastern North Qilian Mts. and Its Tectonic Significance

    DU Yuansheng; XU Yajun; YANG Jianghai


    Devonian in the North Qilian orogenic belt and Hexi Corridor developed terrestrial molasse of later stage of foreland basin caused by collision between the North China plate and Qaidam microplate. The foreland basin triggered a intense earthquake, and formed seismites and earthquake- related soft-sediment deformation. The soft-sediment deformation structures of Devonian in the eastern North Qilian Mts. consist of seismo-cracks, sandstone dykes, syn-depositional faults, microfolds (micro-corrugated lamination), fluidized veins, load casts, flame structures, pillow structures and brecciation. The seismo-cracks, syn-depositional faults and microfolds are cracks, faults and folds formed directly by oscillation of earthquake. The seismic dykes formed by sediment instilling into seismic cracks. Fluidized veins were made by instilling into the seismo-fissures of the fluidized sands. The load casts, flame structures and pillow structures were formed by sinking and instilling caused from oscillation of earthquake along the face between sandy and muddy beds. The brecciation resulted from the oscillation of earthquake and cracking of sedimentary layers. The seismites and soft-sediment deformations in Devonian triggered the earthquake related to tectonic activities during the orogeny and uplift of North Qilian Mts.

  7. Predictable earthquakes?

    Martini, D.


    acceleration) and global number of earthquake for this period from published literature which give us a great picture about the dynamical geophysical phenomena. Methodology: The computing of linear correlation coefficients gives us a chance to quantitatively characterise the relation among the data series, if we suppose a linear dependence in the first step. The correlation coefficients among the Earth's rotational acceleration and Z-orbit acceleration (perpendicular to the ecliptic plane) and the global number of the earthquakes were compared. The results clearly demonstrate the common feature of both the Earth's rotation and Earth's Z-acceleration around the Sun and also between the Earth's rotational acceleration and the earthquake number. This fact might means a strong relation among these phenomena. The mentioned rather strong correlation (r = 0.75) and the 29 year period (Saturn's synodic period) was clearly shown in the counted cross correlation function, which gives the dynamical characteristic of correlation, of Earth's orbital- (Z-direction) and rotational acceleration. This basic period (29 year) was also obvious in the earthquake number data sets with clear common features in time. Conclusion: The Core, which involves the secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field, is the only sufficiently mobile part of the Earth with a sufficient mass to modify the rotation which probably effects on the global time distribution of the earthquakes. Therefore it might means that the secular variation of the earthquakes is inseparable from the changes in Earth's magnetic field, i.e. the interior process of the Earth's core belongs to the dynamical state of the solar system. Therefore if the described idea is real the global distribution of the earthquakes in time is predictable.

  8. Studies related to the Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake of 1886; a preliminary report

    Rankin, Douglas W.


    PART A: The seismic history of the southeastern United States is dominated by the 1886 earthquake near Charleston, S.C. An understanding of the specific source and the uniqueness of the neotectonic setting of this large earthquake is essential in order to properly assess seismic hazards in the southeastern United States. Such knowledge will also contribute to the fundamental understanding of intraplate earthquakes and will aid indirectly in deciphering the evolution of Atlantic-type continental margins. The 15 chapters in this volume report on the first stage of an ongoing multidisciplinary study of the Charleston earthquake of 1886. The Modified Mercalli intensity for the 1886 earthquake was X in the meizoseismal area, an elliptical area 35 by 50 km, the center of which was Middleton Place. Seismic activity is continuing today in the Middleton Place-Summerville area at a higher level than prior to 1886. The present seismicity is originating at depths of 1 to 8 km, mostly in the crystalline basement beneath sedimentary rocks of the Coastal Plain. The crystalline basement beneath the Charleston-Summerville area is not simply a seaward extension of crystalline rocks of the Appalachian orogen that are exposed in the Piedmont to the northwest, but has a distinctive magnetic signature that does not reflect Appalachian orogenic trends. The area underlain by this distinctive geophysical basement, the Charleston block, may represent a broad zone of Triassic and (or) Jurassic crustal extension formed during the early stages of the opening of the Atlantic Ocean. The Charleston block is characterized in part by prominent, roughly circular magnetic and gravity highs that are thought to reflect maflc or ultramafic plutons. A continuously cored borehole put down over the shallowest (about 1.5 km deep) of these magnetic anomalies on the edge of the meizoseismal area bottomed at 792 m in amygdaloidal basalt. Although the K-Ar ages of about 100 m.y. for the basalt are consistent

  9. Relation of landslides triggered by the Kiholo Bay earthquake to modeled ground motion

    Harp, Edwin L.; Hartzell, Stephen H.; Jibson, Randall W.; Ramirez-Guzman, L.; Schmitt, Robert G.


    The 2006 Kiholo Bay, Hawaii, earthquake triggered high concentrations of rock falls and slides in the steep canyons of the Kohala Mountains along the north coast of Hawaii. Within these mountains and canyons a complex distribution of landslides was triggered by the earthquake shaking. In parts of the area, landslides were preferentially located on east‐facing slopes, whereas in other parts of the canyons no systematic pattern prevailed with respect to slope aspect or vertical position on the slopes. The geology within the canyons is homogeneous, so we hypothesize that the variable landslide distribution is the result of localized variation in ground shaking; therefore, we used a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution ground‐motion simulation model to see if it could reproduce the landslide‐distribution patterns. We used a 3D finite‐element analysis to model earthquake shaking using a 10 m digital elevation model and slip on a finite‐fault model constructed from teleseismic records of the mainshock. Ground velocity time histories were calculated up to a frequency of 5 Hz. Dynamic shear strain also was calculated and compared with the landslide distribution. Results were mixed for the velocity simulations, with some areas showing correlation of landslide locations with peak modeled ground motions but many other areas showing no such correlation. Results were much improved for the comparison with dynamic shear strain. This suggests that (1) rock falls and slides are possibly triggered by higher frequency ground motions (velocities) than those in our simulations, (2) the ground‐motion velocity model needs more refinement, or (3) dynamic shear strain may be a more fundamental measurement of the decoupling process of slope materials during seismic shaking.

  10. The Global Earthquake Model - Past, Present, Future

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross


    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe are key to assessing risk more effectively. Through consortium driven global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. The year 2013 has seen the completion of ten global data sets or components addressing various aspects of earthquake hazard and risk, as well as two GEM-related, but independently managed regional projects SHARE and EMME. Notably, the International Seismological Centre (ISC) led the development of a new ISC-GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue, which was made publicly available in early 2013. It has set a new standard for global earthquake catalogues and has found widespread acceptance and application in the global earthquake community. By the end of 2014, GEM's OpenQuake computational platform will provide the OpenQuake hazard/risk assessment software and integrate all GEM data and information products. The public release of OpenQuake is planned for the end of this 2014, and will comprise the following datasets and models: • ISC-GEM Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (released January 2013) • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Database and Model • Global Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation Model • Global Exposure Database • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerabilities Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators • Seismic

  11. Quantifying the Earthquake Clustering that Independent Sources with Stationary Rates (as Included in Current Risk Models) Can Produce.

    Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.; Apel, E. V.; Muir-Wood, R.


    The recent Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES) renewed public and academic awareness concerning the clustered nature of seismicity. Multiple event occurrence in short time and space intervals is reminiscent of aftershock sequences, but aftershock is a statistical definition, not a label one can give an earthquake in real-time. Aftershocks are defined collectively as what creates the Omori event rate decay after a large event or are defined as what is taken away as "dependent events" using a declustering method. It is noteworthy that depending on the declustering method used on the Canterbury earthquake sequence, the number of independent events varies a lot. This lack of unambiguous definition of aftershocks leads to the need to investigate the amount of clustering inherent in "declustered" risk models. This is the task we concentrate on in this contribution. We start from a background source model for the Canterbury region, in which 1) centroids of events of given magnitude are distributed using a latin-hypercube lattice, 2) following the range of preferential orientations determined from stress maps and focal mechanism, 3) with length determined using the local scaling relationship and 4) rates from a and b values derived from the declustered pre-2010 catalog. We then proceed to create tens of thousands of realizations of 6 to 20 year periods, and we define criteria to identify which successions of events in the region would be perceived as a sequence. Note that the spatial clustering expected is a lower end compared to a fully uniform distribution of events. Then we perform the same exercise with rates and b-values determined from the catalog including the CES. If the pre-2010 catalog was long (or rich) enough, then the computed "stationary" rates calculated from it would include the CES declustered events (by construction, regardless of the physical meaning of or relationship between those events). In regions of low seismicity rate (e.g., Canterbury before

  12. Considerations related to housing and seismic risk

    Oana Luca


    Full Text Available The paper aims to present the main problems related to the seismic risk and housing in urban settlements in Romania, with special focus on Bucharest, which is the most exposed city. The paper emphasizes the framework related to evolution of technical regulations and seismic safety of residential buildings, highlighting the main dysfunctions in the National Program for Seismic Retrofitting. At the same time, because the collapse of a single residential building may have major negative effects on the surrounding area (buildings, streets, utilities etc., the paper is proposing a methodology for evaluation of damages which may appear in such a case. The article is also suggesting several solutions for improving the design and expertise process and also for the seismic retrofitting of vulnerable buildings, especially housing.

  13. Strategic crisis and risk communication during a prolonged natural hazard event: lessons learned from the Canterbury earthquake sequence

    Wein, A. M.; Potter, S.; Becker, J.; Doyle, E. E.; Jones, J. L.


    While communication products are developed for monitoring and forecasting hazard events, less thought may have been given to crisis and risk communication plans. During larger (and rarer) events responsible science agencies may find themselves facing new and intensified demands for information and unprepared for effectively resourcing communications. In a study of the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-12 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (New Zealand), issues are identified and implications for communication strategy noted. Communication issues during the responses included reliability and timeliness of communication channels for immediate and short decision time frames; access to scientists by those who needed information; unfamiliar emergency management frameworks; information needs of multiple audiences, audience readiness to use the information; and how best to convey empathy during traumatic events and refer to other information sources about what to do and how to cope. Other science communication challenges included meeting an increased demand for earthquake education, getting attention on aftershock forecasts; responding to rumor management; supporting uptake of information by critical infrastructure and government and for the application of scientific information in complex societal decisions; dealing with repetitive information requests; addressing diverse needs of multiple audiences for scientific information; and coordinating communications within and outside the science domain. For a science agency, a communication strategy would consider training scientists in communication, establishing relationships with university scientists and other disaster communication roles, coordinating messages, prioritizing audiences, deliberating forecasts with community leaders, identifying user needs and familiarizing them with the products ahead of time, and practicing the delivery and use of information via scenario planning and exercises.

  14. Ground uplift related to permeability enhancement following the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in the Kanto Plain, Japan

    Ishitsuka, Kazuya; Matsuoka, Toshifumi; Nishimura, Takuya; Tsuji, Takeshi; ElGharbawi, Tamer


    We investigated the post-seismic surface displacement of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake around the Kanto Plain (including the capital area of Japan), which is located approximately 400 km from the epicenter, using a global positioning system network during 2005-2015 and persistent scatterer interferometry of TerraSAR-X data from March 2011 to November 2012. Uniform uplift owing to viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip on the plain has been reported previously. In addition to the general trend, we identified areas where the surface displacement velocity was faster than the surrounding areas, as much as 7 mm/year for 3 years after the earthquake and with a velocity decay over time. Local uplift areas were 30 × 50 km2 and showed a complex spatial distribution with an irregular shape. Based on an observed groundwater level increase, we deduce that the local ground uplift was induced by a permeability enhancement and a pore pressure increase in the aquifer system, which is attributable to mainshock vibration.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  15. Geologic structures related to New Madrid earthquakes near Memphis, Tennessee, based on gravity and magnetic interpretations

    Hildenbrand, T.G.; Stuart, W.D.; Talwani, P.


    New inversions of gravity and magnetic data in the region north of memphis. Tennessee, and south of latitude 36?? define boundaries of regional structures and igneous complexes in the upper crust. Microseismicity patterns near interpreted boundaries suggest that igneous complexes influence the locations of microseismicity. A weak seismicity cluster occurs near one intrusion (Covington pluton), at the intersection of the southwest margin of the Missouri batholith and the southeast margin of the Reelfoot rift. A narrow seismicity trend along the Reelfoot rift axis becomes diffuse near a second intrusion (Osceola intrusive complex) and changes direction to an area along the northwest flank of the intrusion. The axial seismicity trend also contains a tight cluster of earthquakes located just outside the Osceola intrusive complex. The mechanical explanation of the two seismicity patterns is uncertain, but the first cluster may be caused by stress concentration due to the high elastic stiffness and strength of the Covington intrusion. The spatially changing seismicity pattern near the Osceola complex may be caused by the preceding factors plus interaction with faulting along the rift axis. The axial seismicity strand itself is one of several connected and interacting active strands that may produce stress concentrations at strand ends and junctions. The microseismicity clusters at the peripheries of the two intrusions lead us to conclude that these stress concentrations or stressed volumes may be locations of future moderate to large earthquakes near Memphis. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

  16. Supportive and cognitive behavioral group interventions on Bam earthquake related PTSD symptoms in adolescents

    J Mahmoudi-Gharaei


    Full Text Available Background: Psychological debriefing has been widely advocated for routine use following major traumatic events. Cognitive Behavioral Interventions, art supportive therapies, and sport and recreational support activities are other interventions for reducing posttraumatic stress disorder. We assessed the effects of theses methods individually and in combination on reduction posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms in adolescents who had experienced Bam earthquake. Methods: In a field trial, we evaluated the efficacy of psychological debriefing, group cognitive-behavioral therapy, art and sport supportive interventions in 200 adolescents with PTSD symptoms who survived of Bam earthquake and compare it with a control group. Patients were randomly assigned to one of intervention programs including: group cognitive-behavioral therapy; group CBT plus art and sport interventions; art and sport interventions without group CBT; and control group. Results: Thirty one individuals were excluded because of migration. A statistically significant reduction in overall PTSD symptoms as well as in avoidance symptoms was observed after group cognitive-behavioral therapy. There was no significant difference in reduction of overall PTSD and avoidance symptoms between the other groups. Conclusion: Psychological interventions in form of group cognitive behavioral therapy can reduce the symptoms of PTSD symptoms but we couldn't find the art and sport supportive therapy alone or in combination with group CBT to be useful in this regard.

  17. Geochemical variation of groundwater in the Abruzzi region: earthquakes related signals?

    Cardellini, C.; Chiodini, G.; Caliro, S.; Frondini, F.; Avino, R.; Minopoli, C.; Morgantini, N.


    The presence of a deep and inorganic source of CO2 has been recently recognized in Italy on the basis of the deeply derived carbon dissolved in the groundwater. In particular, the regional map of CO2 Earth degassing shows that two large degassing structures affect the Tyrrhenian side of the Italian peninsula. The northern degassing structure (TRDS, Tuscan Roman degassing structure) includes Tuscany, Latium and part of Umbria regions (~30000 km2) and releases > 6.1 Mt/y of deeply derived CO2. The southern degassing structure (CDS, Campanian degassing structure) affects the Campania region (~10000 km2) and releases > 3.1 Mt/y of deeply derived CO2. The total CO2 released by TRDS and CDS (> 9.2 Mt/y) is globally significant, being ~10% of the estimated present-day total CO2 discharge from sub aerial volcanoes of the Earth. The comparison between the map of CO2 Earth degassing and of the location of the Italian earthquakes highlights that the anomalous CO2 flux suddenly disappears in the Apennine in correspondence of a narrow band where most of the seismicity concentrates. A previous conceptual model proposed that in this area, at the eastern borders of TRDS and CDS plumes, the CO2 from the mantle wedge intrudes the crust and accumulate in structural traps generating over-pressurized reservoirs. These CO2 over-pressurized levels can play a major role in triggering the Apennine earthquakes, by reducing fault strength and potentially controlling the nucleation, arrest, and recurrence of both micro and major (M>5) earthquakes. The 2009 Abruzzo earthquakes, like previous seismic crises in the Northern Apennine, occurred at the border of the TRDS, suggesting also in this case a possible role played by deeply derived fluids in the earthquake generation. In order to investigate this process, detailed hydro-geochemical campaigns started immediately after the main shock of the 6th of April 2009. The surveys include the main springs of the area which were previously studied in


    Tarhan, C.; D. Deniz


    Cities in the developing world are facing increased risk of disasters and the potential of economic and human losses from natural hazards is being exacerbated by the rate of unplanned urban expansion and influenced by the quality of urban management. Risk assessment has come to be regarded by many analysts as a critical part of the development of sustainable communities. The risk assessment function has been linked to issues such as environmental stewardship and community planning. T...

  19. The Role of Knowledge in the prevention of natural hazards and related risks.

    Enrico Miccadei


    Full Text Available Human activities, especially over the last two centuries, have had a huge impact on the environment and the landscape. Mankind is able to control and induce landscape changes but is subject to natural processes and hazards due to severe and extreme events (particularly earthquakes but also landslides and flooding and related risks. Risks are the result of hazards, exposed elements and vulnerability and they are consequently not only an expression of the natural environment, but also related to human interaction with nature. Risks need to be addressed regularly by means of a high level of knowledge in order to provide most up­to­date information for any decision which needs to be taken by any party involved. A high level of knowledge concerning natural hazards and related risks stems from the geological and geomorphological history and from the historical records of the natural processes and grows with multi­scale, multi­temporal and multidisciplinary studies and investigations, which include land management, economic and social issues. A strong effort has to be made in this way to improve risk assessment and the enforcement of existing laws and ­ if necessary ­ new laws, really stem from recent disasters. This will help to achieve improved and effective land management, based on an interdisciplinary approach in which expert geologists and land managers will play a role, because of the importance of natural processes in inducing risks.

  20. A toolbox for health risk related decisions

    Easterly, C.E.; Jones, T.D.


    Development efforts since the late 1970s have resulted in a generalized method for ranking health hazards. This method provides the basis for a wide range of applications where decisions are needed for allocating resources on the basis of health risk considerations. It has been used for more than a decade to solve real problems, and it is supported by 23 publications in the open literature. The diversity of this generalized methodology allows us to provide support in a great number of problem areas. we give four examples in this manuscript: the relative toxicities of petroleum mixtures; a method to derive Emergency Response Planning Guides; an estimate of the possible carcinogenic potency of tungsten, an alternative material to depleted uranium for heavy armor penetrators; and an approach to low dose extrapolation. Our experience suggests that many more applications of the original concept and variations on it can be of utility in military situations. Some potentially fruitful areas may be in the: development of a health-risk-ranking system for alternative solutions to manufacturing, waste management, and remediation; provision of a basis for identifying levels of hazardous agents which are below health concerns, or which should be of concern; development of a framework for evaluating chemicals and radioactive materials on the same basis, and in the development of a battery of in vitro bioassays which could take the place of long-term whole animal tests.

  1. Climate Change and Food-Related Risks

    Isidro Juan Mirón Pérez


    Full Text Available There are two principal concepts to take into account relating food and climate change: food security and food safety. Most papers linking climate change to food risks deal with the first one: the security of the food supply.The increase of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, together with the rise of the temperatures on a global level would theorically lead to greater yields of crops grown for human and animal consumption. Howevwe, most of these studies have shown that, in general, crop yields are decreasing as this global change also brings about an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In adition, these weather anomalies would be unevenly spread and affect developing countries, which are less capable of tackling this change, more severely. All these factors would result in greater uncertainty in the supply of food, which consequently would be less predictable and leave it more exposed to market speculation.A rise in average temperatures would be expected to increase the risk of proliferation of foodborne disease-causing microorganisms such as Salmonella or Campylobacter. Nevertheless, a trend of this sort has not been detected yet in developed countries, where information systems allow the temporal evolution of the occurrence of those diseases to be tracked, since means for food preservation and food controls are wide spread.

  2. Minor shallow gravitational component on the Mt. Vettore surface ruptures related to MW 6, 2016 Amatrice earthquake

    Matteo Albano


    Full Text Available On 24th August 2016 a ML 6.0 earthquake occurred near Amatrice (central Italy causing nearly 300 fatalities. The mainshock ruptured a NNW-SSE striking, WSW dipping normal fault. The earthquake produced several coseismic effects at ground, including landslides and ground ruptures. In particular, ground surveys identified a 5.2 km long continuous fracture along the Mt. Vettore flank, both on rock and slope deposits, along one of the active normal fault segments bounding the relief to the west. In this work, we evaluated the contribution of seismically-induced surface instabilities to the observed ground fractures by means of a permanent-displacement approach. The results of a parametric analysis show that the computed seismically-induced gravitational displacements (about 2-10 cm are not enough to explain field observations, testifying to a mean 20-25cm vertical offset. Thus, the observed ground fractures are the result of primary faulting related to tectonics, combined with gravitational phenomena.

  3. Rupture process of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in relation to the thermal structure around Aso volcano

    Yagi, Yuji; Okuwaki, Ryo; Enescu, Bogdan; Kasahara, Amato; Miyakawa, Ayumu; Otsubo, Makoto


    We constructed the rupture process model for the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake from broadband teleseismic body waveforms (P-waves) by using a novel waveform inversion method that takes into account the uncertainty of Green's function. The estimated source parameters are: seismic moment = 5.1 × 1019 Nm (Mw = 7.1), fault length = 40 km, and fault width = 15 km. The mainshock rupture mainly propagated northeastward from the epicenter, for about 30 km, along an active strike-slip fault. The rupture propagation of the mainshock decelerated and terminated near the southwest side of the Aso volcano; the aftershock activity was low around the northeastern edge of the major slip area. Our results suggest that the rupture process of the mainshock and the distribution of aftershocks were influenced by the high-temperature area around the magma chamber of Mt. Aso.

  4. Relation between Gravity Field Feature and Tectonics and Earthquakes in Taiwan and Its Adjacent Seas

    张赤军; 方剑


    Short wave gravity anomaly is correlated to sea floor topography in the gravity field of Taiwan and its adjacent seas. Gravity values of 200 × 10-5ms-2 at Yushang and -160 × 10-5ms-2 at Liuqiu sea trench are respectively the maximum and minimum gravity values in this area.Bouguer gravity anomaly reflects not only Moho interface undulation, but also fault distribution.The inflexion of gradient belt of Bouguer gravity anomaly is a spot liable to earthquakes. Middlelong wave geoid is the best data to invert crustal thickness. We calculate crustal thickness by using geoid data, and the maximum value is 38km; the minimum value is 12km in Taiwan and its adjacent seas.

  5. Is the Shroud of Turin in Relation to the Old Jerusalem Historical Earthquake?

    Carpinteri, Alberto; Borla, Oscar


    Phillips and Hedges suggested, in the scientific magazine Nature (1989), that neutron radiation could be liable of a wrong radiocarbon dating, while proton radiation could be responsible of the Shroud body image formation. On the other hand, no plausible physical reason has been proposed so far to explain the radiation source origin, and its effects on the linen fibres. However, some recent studies, carried out by the first author and his Team at the Laboratory of Fracture Mechanics of the Politecnico di Torino, found that it is possible to generate neutron emissions from very brittle rock specimens in compression through piezonuclear fission reactions. Analogously, neutron flux increments, in correspondence to seismic activity, should be a result of the same reactions. A group of Russian scientists measured a neutron flux exceeding the background level by three orders of magnitude in correspondence to rather appreciable earthquakes (4th degree in Richter Scale). The authors consider the possibility that neut...

  6. A dasymetric data supported earthquake disaster loss quick assessment method for emergency response in China

    J. Xu


    Full Text Available Improving earthquake disaster loss estimation speed and accuracy is one of key factors in effective earthquake response and rescue. The presentation of exposure data by applying a dasymetric map approach has good potential for addressing this issue. With the support of 30'' × 30'' areal exposure data (population and building data in China, this paper presents a new two-phase earthquake disaster loss estimation method for emergency response situations. This method has two phases: a pre-earthquake phase and a co-earthquake phase. In the pre-earthquake phase, we pre-calculate the earthquake loss related to different seismic intensities and store them in a 30'' × 30'' grid format, which has four stages: determining the earthquake loss calculation factor, gridding possible damage matrixes, the building damage calculation and the people loss calculation. The dasymetric map approach makes this possible. Then, in the co-earthquake phase, there are two stages of estimating loss: generating a theoretical isoseismal map to depict the spatial distribution of the seismic intensity field; then, using the seismic intensity field to extract statistics of disaster loss from pre-calculated loss estimation data to obtain the final estimation results. The method is validated by four actual earthquakes that occurred in China. The method not only significant improves the speed and accuracy of loss estimation, but gives spatial distribution for the loss, which will be effective in aiding earthquake emergency response and rescue. Additionally, related pre-calculated earthquake loss estimation data in China could serve to provide disaster risk analysis before earthquakes happen. Currently, the pre-calculated loss estimation data and the two-phase estimation method are used by the China Earthquake Administration.

  7. Accommodation in a refugee shelter as a risk factor for peptic ulcer bleeding after the Great East Japan Earthquake: a case-control study of 329 patients.

    Kanno, Takeshi; Iijima, Kastunori; Koike, Tomoyuki; Abe, Yasuhiko; Shimada, Norihiro; Hoshi, Tatsuya; Sano, Nozomu; Ohyauchi, Motoki; Ito, Hirotaka; Atsumi, Tomoaki; Konishi, Hidetomo; Asonuma, Sho; Shimosegawa, Tooru


    We have reported that the total number of peptic ulcers (PUs) had increased 1.5-fold after the Great East Japan Earthquake compared with those of the previous year, and that hemorrhagic ulcers were more prominently increased by 2.2-fold. The aim of this study is to determine the risk factors for bleeding ulcers after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Clinical data of all peptic ulcer subjects endoscopically detected at the 7 major hospitals in the middle of the stricken area during the 3 months after the earthquake were retrospectively collected. Based on endoscopic and laboratory findings, peptic ulcer cases were divided into 227 bleeding ulcer cases and 102 non-bleeding controls. Other than ordinary risk factors for bleeding ulcers, the refugee shelter was included in the analysis as a unique confounder after the earthquake. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to adjust for potential confounders. Eighty-seven (27%) of 329 PUs emerged from refuge shelters, and the majority (76 of 87) of PUs occurring in such shelters was the bleeding type. Multivariate regression showed that residence in a shelter was a strong risk factor for ulcer bleeding with OR (95% CI): 4.4 (2.1-9.6, p < 0.0001), independent of the progressiveness of ulcer diseases. Accommodation in a refugee shelter can be a strong risk factor for ulcer bleeding after a large-scale disaster. Since acid-suppressive drugs are supposed to decrease the risk for stress-induced ulcer bleeding, our results will encourage effective use of a limited medical resource in such catastrophic events.

  8. Retrospection on the Conclusions of Earthquake Tendency Forecast before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 Earthquake

    Liu Jie; Guo Tieshuan; Yang Liming; Su Youjin; Li Gang


    The reason for the failure to forecast the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake is under study, based on the systematically collection of the seismicity anomalies and their analysis results from annual earthquake tendency forecasts between the 2001 Western Kuulun Mountains Pass Ms8.1 earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The results show that the earthquake tendency estimation of Chinese Mainland is for strong earthquakes to occur in the active stage, and that there is still potential for the occurrence of a Ms8.0 large earthquake in Chinese Mainland after the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass earthquake. However the phenomena that many large earthquakes occurred around Chinese Mainland, and the 6-year long quietude of Ms7.0 earthquake and an obvious quietude of Ms5.0 and Ms6.0 earthquakes during 2002 ~2007 led to the distinctly lower forecast estimation of earthquake tendency in Chinese Mainland after 2006. The middle part in the north-south seismic belt has been designated a seismic risk area of strong earthquake in recent years, but, the estimation of the risk degree in Southwestern China is insufficient after the Ning'er Ms6.4 earthquake in Yunnan in 2007. There are no records of earthquakes with Ms≥7.0 in the Longmenshan fault, which is one of reasons that this fault was not considered a seismic risk area of strong earthquakes in recent years.

  9. Nowcasting Earthquakes

    Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Turcotte, D. L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gail, G.


    Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(nearthquakes in the region. From the count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, we determine the value of EPS = P(nearthquake cycle in the defined region at the current time.

  10. Earthquake Facts

    Jump to Navigation Earthquake Facts The largest recorded earthquake in the United States was a magnitude 9.2 that struck Prince William Sound, ... we know, there is no such thing as "earthquake weather" . Statistically, there is an equal distribution of ...

  11. Nowcasting earthquakes

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gong, G.


    Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(n < n(t)) for the current count n(t) for the small earthquakes in the region. From the count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, we determine the value of EPS = P(n < n(t)). EPS is therefore the current level of hazard and assigns a number between 0% and 100% to every region so defined, thus providing a unique measure. Physically, the EPS corresponds to an estimate of the level of progress through the earthquake cycle in the defined region at the current time.

  12. Modeling crustal deformation and rupture processes related to upwelling of deep CO2-rich fluids during the 1965-1967 Matsushiro Earthquake Swarm in Japan

    Cappa, F.; Rutqvist, J.; Yamamoto, K.


    In Matsushiro, central Japan, a series of more than 700,000 earthquakes occurred over a 2-year period (1965-1967) associated with a strike-slip faulting sequence. This swarm of earthquakes resulted in ground surface deformations, cracking of the topsoil, and enhanced spring-outflows with changes in chemical compositions as well as carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) degassing. Previous investigations of the Matsushiro earthquake swarm have suggested that migration of underground water and/or magma may have had a strong influence on the swarm activity. In this study, employing coupled multiphase flow and geomechanical modelling, we show that observed crustal deformations and seismicity can have been driven by upwelling of deep CO{sub 2}-rich fluids around the intersection of two fault zones - the regional East Nagano earthquake fault and the conjugate Matsushiro fault. We show that the observed spatial evolution of seismicity along the two faults and magnitudes surface uplift, are convincingly explained by a few MPa of pressurization from the upwelling fluid within the critically stressed crust - a crust under a strike-slip stress regime near the frictional strength limit. Our analysis indicates that the most important cause for triggering of seismicity during the Matsushiro swarm was the fluid pressurization with the associated reduction in effective stress and strength in fault segments that were initially near critically stressed for shear failure. Moreover, our analysis indicates that a two order of magnitude permeability enhancement in ruptured fault segments may be necessary to match the observed time evolution of surface uplift. We conclude that our hydromechanical modelling study of the Matsushiro earthquake swarm shows a clear connection between earthquake rupture, deformation, stress, and permeability changes, as well as large-scale fluid flow related to degassing of CO{sub 2} in the shallow seismogenic crust. Thus, our study provides further evidence of the

  13. Role of Young Scientists in the Emergency Response and Scientific Investigation Related to the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake: Performance Evaluation and Discussion on the Implications to Seismological Education and Training

    Qiao, S.; Zhang, D.; Chen, Y.; Xiao, C.; Feng, C.


    The Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake is one of the largest inland earthquakes in continental China in the last 30 years. Over twenty thousand aftershocks were detected and aftershocks are still occurring along the Longmenshan thrust fault. Facing challenge of such large earthquakes, it is a new problem for our education, training and human resource management about how to respond quickly and arrange effectively to reduce the earthquake disasters and carry out relative researches. For such an earthquake, the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration (IGPCEA) organized a series of investigation immediately after the quake. The researches include application in seismology, geomagnetism, seismotectonics, engineering seismology, earthquake engineering and socio-seismology. In the third day after the earthquake, many young scientists involved in the deployment of mobile seismic stations to record aftershock sequence. Up to now, 79 experts of our institute have been arranged to go to the meizoseismal region for monitoring and investigation. Among them, over 40 young scientists are no more than 40 years old, including many graduates. Less than 36 hours after the Wenchuan earthquake, 17 quick reports have been sent to China Earthquake Administration for the consultation of the emergency response. These researches dealt with a wide-band of topics from earthquake location, focal mechanism, rupture processes to suggestion on the rescue actions. According to experiences and lessons of the field works in the Wenchuan earthquake, it is deserved for us to think how to arrange theoretical courses and practical training more practical for young graduates and scientists to meet the demands of the reduction of earthquake disasters. Key words: Wenchuan earthquake; Longmenshan fault; young scientists; education and training

  14. Increase in disaster-related deaths: risks and social impacts of evacuation.

    Hayakawa, M


    In Fukushima Prefecture, disaster-related death is a social problem for individuals who were forced to leave their hometowns as a result of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Disaster-related death is caused by stress, exhaustion, and worsening of pre-existing illnesses due to evacuation. The number of disaster-related deaths has reached almost 2000, and continues to rise. Prolonged uncertainty and deteriorating living conditions suggest no end to such deaths, although response measures have been taken to improve the situation. It is said that insufficient response measures were taken, in particular, during the transitional period between the emergency phase and the reconstruction phase. There is a need to apply the lessons learned in planning for evacuation after a nuclear hazard, considering radiological protection as well as risks associated with evacuation.

  15. Improved neural network algorithm for classification of UAV imagery related to Wenchuan earthquake

    Lin, Na; Yang, Wunian; Wang, Bin


    When Wenchuan earthquake struck, the terrain of the region changed violently. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) remote sensing is effective in extracting first hand information. The high resolution images are of great importance in disaster management and relief operations. Back propagation (BP) neural network is an artificial neural network which combines multi-layer feed-forward network and error back-propagation algorithm. It has a strong input-output mapping capability, and does not require the object to be identified obeying certain distribution law. It has strong non-linear features and error-tolerant capabilities. Remotely-sensed image classification can achieve high accuracy and satisfactory error-tolerant capabilities. But it also has drawbacks such as slow convergence speed and can probably be trapped by local minimum points. In order to solve these problems, we have improved this algorithm through setting up self-adaptive training rate and adding momentum factor. UAV high-resolution aerial image in Taoguan District of Wenchuan County is used as data source. First, we preprocess UAV aerial images and rectify geometric distortion in images. Training samples were selected and purified. The image is then classified using the improved BP neural network algorithm. Finally, we compare such classification result with the maximum likelihood classification (MLC) result. Numerical comparison shows that the overall accuracy of maximum likelihood classification is 83.8%, while the improved BP neural network classification is 89.7%. The testing results indicate that the latter is better.

  16. Historical reconstruction of oil and gas spills during moderate and strong earthquakes and related geochemical surveys in Southern Apennines

    Sciarra, Alessandra; Cantucci, Barbara; Ferrari, Graziano; Pizzino, Luca; Quattrocchi, Fedora


    The aim of this study is to contribute to the assessment of natural hazards in a seismically active area of southern Italy through the joint analysis of historical sources and fluid geochemistry. In particular, our studies have been focalized in the Val d'Agri basin, in the Apennines extensional belt, since it hosts the largest oilfield in onshore Europe and normal-fault systems with high seismogenic potential (up to M7). The work was organized into three main themes: 1) literature search aimed at identifying fluid emissions during previous moderate-strong earthquakes; 2) consultation of local and national archives to identify historic local place names correlated to natural fluids emissions; 3) geochemical sampling of groundwater and gas issuing at surface, identified on the basis of the bibliographic sources. A reasoned reading of written documents and available historical data was performed. Moreover, we reworked information reported in historical catalogues, referred to liquid and gas hydrocarbon leakages occurred during seismic events of the past (in a range of magnitude from 5 to 7) in the Southern Apennines (with a particular focus on the Val d'Agri). Special attention was given to the phenomena of geochemical emissions related to major historical earthquakes that took place in the area, most notably that of 16 December 1857 (M = 7). A careful analysis of the Robert Mallet's report, a complete work aimed at describing the social impact and the effects on the environment produced by this earthquake through illustrated maps and diagrams, included several hundred monoscopic and stereoscopic photographs, was done. From archival sources (at national and/or local administrations), "sensitive" sites to the onset of leakage of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons in the past were identified. A soil-gas survey (22 gas concentrations and flux measurements) and 35 groundwater samplings were carried out in specific sites recognized through the above studies. From a

  17. The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.


    The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

  18. Earthquake risk communication as dialogue - insights from a workshop in Istanbul's urban renewal neighbourhoods

    Ickert, Johanna; Stewart, Iain S.


    An important paradox of hazard communication is that the more effectively a potential physical threat is made public by the scientist, the more readily the scientific message becomes normalized into the daily discourses of ordinary life. As a result, a heightened risk awareness does not necessarily motivate personal or collective preparedness. If geoscientists are to help at-risk communities adopt meaningful measures to protect themselves, new strategies are needed for public communication and community engagement. This paper outlines an attempt to develop a novel approach to train geoscientists, using doctoral and post-doctoral researchers in an EU integrated training network studying tectonic processes and geohazards in Turkey. An urban field visit to seismically vulnerable neighbourhoods in Istanbul allowed the researchers to meet with local residents facing the seismic threat. Those meetings exposed the complex social, political and cultural concerns among Istanbul's at-risk urban communities. These concerns were used to provoke subsequent focus group discussions among the group of geoscientists about roles, responsibilities and methods of communicating hazard information to the public. Through the direct testimony of local residents and geoscientists, we explore the form that new strategies for public communication and community engagement might take.

  19. Managing IT-related operational risks

    Savić Ana


    Full Text Available Not so long ago, information technology (IT risk occupied a small corner of operational risk - the opportunity loss from a missed IT development deadline. Today, the success of an entire financial institution may lay on managing a broad landscape of IT risks. IT risk is a potential damage to an organization's value, resulting from inadequate managing of processes and technologies. IT risk includes the failure to respond to security and privacy requirements, as well as many other issues such as: human error, internal fraud through software manipulation, external fraud by intruders, obsolesce in applications and machines, reliability issues or mismanagement. The World Economic Forum provides best information about this problem. They rank a breakdown of critical information infrastructure among the most likely core global risks, with 10-20 % likelihood over the next 10 years and potential worldwide impact of $250 billion. Sustained investment in IT - almost $1.2 trillion or 29% of 2006 private-sector capital investment in the U.S. alone fuels growing exposure to IT risk. Greg Hughes, chief strategy officer in Symantec Corp. recently claimed "IT risk management is more than using technology to solve security problems. With proper planning and broad support, it can give an organization the confidence to innovate, using IT to outdistance competitors".

  20. Dynamical Stress Analysis of Tectonic Earthquakes in Nusa Tenggara and its possible relations to the Activity of Mt. Rinjani, Indonesia

    Bakti Sukrisna


    Full Text Available Some strong earthquakes are associated with increasing of volcanic activity in near and also in far field. This research is to investigate the effect of the tectonic earthquakes in Nusa Tenggara Island area towards the October 25th,2015 eruption of Mt. Rinjani, Indonesia. Three earthquakes occurred before the eruptions; Mw 5 Sumba earthquake on June 10th 2015, Mw 5.8 South of Java earthaquake July 26th, 2016 and Mw 5 South of Bali on August 6th, 2015. In theory, dynamical stress transfer can be calculated by analyzing synthetic seismogram as a waveform simulation at the volcano and the change of dynamical stress can be calculated with the finitedifference numerical method. Our result indicates that the dynamic stress value is still below the threshold value that can trigger eruptions. Simulation of three earthquakes by varying the magnitude of each earthquake shows that dynamic stress changes will surpass the threshold at Mw  7.5. As all the earthquake that used in this study have magnitude smaller then the threshold, it can be concluded that the eruption of Mount Rinjani was triggered by internal factors, and very unlikely triggered by tyhe earthquake we investigated in this study.

  1. Discussion on Earthquake Forecasting and Early Warning

    Zhang Xiaodong; Jiang Haikun; Li Mingxiao


    Through analysis of natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting,the relationship between the natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting (early warning) has been discussed.Regarding the natural attributes of earthquake forecasting,it only attempts to forecast the magnitude,location and occurrence time of future earthquake based on the aualysis of observational data and relevant theories and taking into consideration the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake generation.It need not consider the consequences an earthquake forecast involves,and its purpose is to check out the level of scientific understanding of earthquakes.In respect of the social aspect of earthquake forecasting,people also focus on the consequence that the forecasting involves,in addition to its natural aspect,such as the uncertainty of earthquake prediction itself,the impact of earthquake prediction,and the earthquake resistant capability of structures (buildings),lifeline works,etc.In a word,it highlights the risk of earthquake forecasting and tries to mitigate the earthquake hazard as much as possible.In this paper,the authors also discuss the scientific and social challenges faced in earthquake prediction and analyze preliminarily the meanings and content of earthquake early warning.

  2. The role of heterogeneities as a tuning parameter of earthquake dynamics in relation to criticality

    Zoeller, G.; Holschneider, M.; Ben-Zion, Y.


    We investigate the influence of spatial heterogeneities on various aspects of seismicity in a single-fault model. The model dynamics is governed by realistic boundary conditions consisting of constant velocity motion of regions around the fault, static/kinetic friction laws, creep with depth-dependent coefficients as in Ben-Zion (JGR 101, 1996), and 3D elastic stress transfer based on the solution of Chinnery (1963). The dynamic rupture is approximated on a continuous time scale using a finite stress propagation velocity (``quasi-dynamic model''). The model produces a ``brittle-ductile'' transition at a depth of about 12.5 km, realistic hypocenter distributions, and other features of seismicity compatible with observations. Ben-Zion et al. (JGR 108, 2003) suggested that the range of size scales in the distribution of strength-stress heterogeneities acts as a tuning parameter of dynamics, and that the evolution of this parameter in large earthquake cycles produces intermittent criticality. Here we test this hypothesis by performing a systematic parameter-space study with different forms of heterogeneities. In particular, we analyse spatial heterogeneities that can be tuned by a single parameter in two distributions: (1) a set of circular asperities with a different stress drop and variable range of radii and (2) spatial heterogeneities with fractal properties and variable fractal dimension. We analyze the influence of the tuning parameter of the heterogeneities on different measures of seismicity and discuss the results in terms of the phase diagram approach of Dahmen et al. (Phys. Rev. E 58, 1998).

  3. Episodic tremor triggers small earthquakes

    Balcerak, Ernie


    It has been suggested that episodic tremor and slip (ETS), the weak shaking not associated with measurable earthquakes, could trigger nearby earthquakes. However, this had not been confirmed until recently. Vidale et al. monitored seismicity in the 4-month period around a 16-day episode of episodic tremor and slip in March 2010 in the Cascadia region. They observed five small earthquakes within the subducting slab during the ETS episode. They found that the timing and locations of earthquakes near the tremor suggest that the tremor and earthquakes are related. Furthermore, they observed that the rate of earthquakes across the area was several times higher within 2 days of tremor activity than at other times, adding to evidence of a connection between tremor and earthquakes. (Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, doi:10.1029/2011GC003559, 2011)

  4. A Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research

    Ogata, Yosihiko


    Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective prediction, complex conditions and uncertain elements must be considered, which necessitates stochastic prediction. In particular, a large amount of uncertainty lies in identifying whether abnormal phenomena are precursors to large earthquakes, as well as in assigning urgency to the earthquake. Any discovery of potentially useful information for earthquake prediction is incomplete unless quantitative modeling of risk is considered. Therefore, this manuscript describes the prospect of earthquake predictability research to realize practical operational forecasting in the near future.

  5. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone


    criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk......A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  6. Short-term probabilistic earthquake risk assessment considering time-dependent b values

    Gulia, Laura; Tormann, Thessa; Wiemer, Stefan; Herrmann, Marcus; Seif, Stefanie


    Laboratory experiments highlight a systematic b value decrease during the stress increase period before failure, and some large natural events are known to show a precursory decrease in the b value. However, short-term forecast models currently consider only the generic probability that an event can trigger subsequent seismicity in the near field. While the probability increase over a stationary Poissonian background is substantial, selected case studies have shown through cost-benefit analysis that the absolute main shock probability remains too low to warrant significant mitigation actions. We analyze the probabilities considering both changes in the seismicity rates and temporal changes in the b value. The precursory b value decrease in the 2009 L'Aquila case results in an additional fiftyfold probability increase for a M6.3 event. Translated into time-varying hazard and risk, these changes surpass the cost-benefit threshold for short-term evacuation.

  7. Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

    Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph


    The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of

  8. Corresponding Relation Between the Space-time Evolution of Seismic Apparent Strain and the Region of Strong Earthquakes in Yunnan


    On the basis of our predecessors' research, we study the distribution and the space-time evolution characteristics of the seismic apparent strain field in Yunnan since the 1970's using the seismic data of Yunnan and its surrounding areas. The result shows that there is arather strong corresponding relationship between the anomaly region of seismic apparent strain and strong earthquakes. In the nine earthquakes studied, anomaly areas of seismic apparent strain had appeared before eight earthquakes, including five occurring in the anomaly region and three on the edge. Finally, the investigative result is demonstrated primarily.

  9. Engineering and Design: Lifeline Report No. 1, Systems at Risk From Earthquakes, Hydroelectric Power Plant Facilities


    Mobile Georgia Chattahoochee 73,375 Whittney 0 Southwestern Ft. Worth Texas Brazos 30,000 Wolf Creek 1 Ohio River Nashville Kentucky Cumberland...the primary support, it also has a tendency to develop leaks (Figure B-29). ( p ) Coolers which are individually connected to the transformer by their...trans- former body is also restrained by a small angle iron brace ( q ) It is relatively easy to add lateral and vertical braces; however, it is

  10. Statistical analysis of aftershock sequences related with two major Nepal earthquakes: April 25, 2015, MW 7.8, and May 12, 2015, MW 7.2

    Prasanta Chingtham


    Full Text Available Present study describes the statistical properties of aftershock sequences related with two major Nepal earthquakes (April 25, 2015, MW 7.8, and May 12, 2015, MW 7.2 and their correlations with the tectonics of Nepal Himalaya. The established empirical scaling laws such as the Gutenberg–Richter (GR relation, the modified Omori law, and the fractal dimension for both the aftershock sequences of Nepal earthquakes have been investigated to assess the spatio-temporal characteristics of these sequences. For this purpose, the homogenized earthquake catalog in moment magnitude, MW is compiled from International Seismological Center (ISC and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT databases during the period from April 25 to October 31, 2015. The magnitude of completeness, MC, a and b-values of Gutenberg–Richter relationship for the first aftershock sequence are found to be 3.0, 4.74, 0.75 (±0.03 respectively whereas the MC, a and b-values of the same relationship for the second aftershock sequence are calculated to be 3.3, 5.46, 0.90 (±0.04 respectively. The observed low b-values for both the sequences, as compared to the global mean of 1.0 indicate the presence of high differential stress accumulations within the fractured rock mass of Nepal Himalaya. The calculated p-values of 1.01 ± 0.05 and 0.95 ± 0.04 respectively for both the aftershock sequences also imply that the aftershock sequence of first main-shock exhibits relatively faster temporal decay pattern than the aftershock sequence of second main-shock. The fractal dimensions, DC values of 1.84 ± 0.05 and 1.91 ± 0.05 respectively for both the aftershock sequences of Nepal earthquakes also reveal the clustering pattern of earthquakes and signifies that the aftershocks are scattered all around the two dimensional space of fractured fault systems of the Nepal region. The low b-value and low DC observed in the temporal variations of b-value and DC before the investigated earthquake (MW 7

  11. Acute stress-related psychological impact in children following devastating natural disaster, the Sikkim earthquake (2011), India

    Rakesh Mondal; Sumantra Sarkar; Indira Banerjee; Avijit Hazra; Debabrata Majumder; Tapas Sabui; Sudip Dutta; Abhisek Saren; Partha Pan


    Background: Psychological stress following natural disaster is common. Despite several earthquakes in India, data on evaluation of acute stress among the child victims in the early postdisaster period is scarce...

  12. Acute stress-related psychological impact in children following devastating natural disaster, the Sikkim earthquake (2011), India

    Mondal, Rakesh; Sarkar, Sumantra; Banerjee, Indira; Hazra, Avijit; Majumder, Debabrata; Sabui, Tapas; Dutta, Sudip; Saren, Abhisek; Pan, Partha


    Psychological stress following natural disaster is common. Despite several earthquakes in India, data on evaluation of acute stress among the child victims in the early postdisaster period is scarce...

  13. Rupture processes of the 2015 Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake and its Mw 7.3 aftershock and their implications on the seismic risk

    Liu, Chengli; Zheng, Yong; Wang, Rongjiang; Shan, Bin; Xie, Zujun; Xiong, Xiong; Ge, Can


    The rupture processes of the 2015 April 25 Gorkha earthquake and its strongest aftershock occurred on May 12 in Nepal are investigated by joint inversion of seismological and geodetic data. Synthetic test shows that the sedimentary layers in the source region play an important role in the rupture process inversion. Our optimized model of the mainshock shows that the rupture has a unilateral propagation pattern. The dominant mechanism is pure thrust with maximum slip of 5.8 m, the rupture scale extends ~ 60 km along dip and ~ 150 km along strike, and the largest static stress change is ~ 7.6 MPa. The total seismic moment is 7.87 × 1020 N m, equivalent to Mw 7.9. Most seismic moment was released within 80 s and the majority seismic moment was released at the first 40 s. The rupture propagated in main slip asperity with a velocity of ~ 3.0 km/s. The strong aftershock magnitude is about Mw 7.3, and the peak slip is about 5.0 m, close to the peak slip of the mainshock. Moreover, the slips of the mainshock and the aftershocks are in good complementary, suggesting a triggering relationship between them. Considering the strain accumulation, the Gorkha earthquake ruptured only part of the seismic gap alone, thus still poses high earthquake risk, especially in the west side of the mainshock rupture zone.

  14. Power spectra analysis for world-wide and North Africa historical earthquakes data in relation to sunspots periodicities

    Shaltout, M.A.M.; Mesiha, S.L. [National Research Inst. of Astronomy and Geophysics, Helwan (Egypt); Tadros, M.T.Y. [Mansoura Univ., Physics Dept., Mansoura (Egypt)


    In the last three decades, the influence of solar activity on earth seismicity is one of the most important subjects in the field of long-term prediction of earthquakes. In the present work, the autocorrelation and power spectra analysis were applied for the sequences of sunspots and earthquakes activity. The used data are the worldwide earthquakes of M {>=} 5, and the sunspots number R{sub 2}, for the period 1903-1985. Both are available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. Also, we restrict our attention to earthquakes in North Africa with two stations, one at Cairo (Egypt), and the other at Alger (Algeria) of M {>=} 4 for the period (1900-1986). The results indicated the presence of the eleven year cycles of the sunspots into the time of the earthquakes of the North Africa. Also, for the worldwide and North Africa earthquakes data a periodicities ranged between 1.01 and 5.5 years are revealed, which may be linked to a solar activity cycle. (Author)

  15. Examining Communities at Risk: Physical and Socioeconomic Impacts of an Earthquake Scenario on the Hayward Fault (The HayWired Scenario)

    Dinitz, L.; Wein, A. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Jones, J. L.


    This research led by the U.S. Geological Survey aims to inform and stimulate the development of plans and policies in disaster management and hazard mitigation that will help improve the capacity of residents, businesses and communities to rebound from disasters. As was evidenced in the 1994 Northridge earthquake, "ghost towns" emerged in neighborhoods with high concentrations of damaged rental housing. Also, rental properties that served predominantly lower income households had more difficulty financing repairs which led to blight and other long-term community recovery challenges. Our approach is to develop a framework for identifying and spatially analyzing communities at risk of long-term displacement and recovery challenges for an earthquake scenario. The HayWired scenario postulates a M7.05 earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area with surface fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides, and fires, as well as subsequent aftershocks. The analytical framework relies on the literature and prior disaster experience to identify and systematically combine physical and socioeconomic impacts of the earthquake sequence with pre-existing socioeconomic conditions to identify areas where housing and building damage, lifeline service disruption, and socioeconomic challenges intersect and can potentially lead to long-term displacements of people, businesses, and jobs. Hazus analyses estimate $46 billion in building damage from the HayWired main shock, which increases by 10-25% due to aftershocks. Heavy damage to large apartment buildings exceeds many other housing types, and preliminary analyses identify neighborhoods where these damage concentrations also intersect with concentrations of low income households. Also, in some counties, the estimated population displaced from severely damaged housing far exceeds the number of vacant housing units, which means residents may be forced to move well away from former neighborhoods and even outside the region

  16. Lichenometry dating of rock collapse related to the great Lisbon Earthquake (1755) at the SE part of Spain

    Perez-Lopez, Raul; Rodriguez-Pascua, Miguel Angel; Silva, Pablo G.; Bischoff, James L.; Owen, Lewis A.; Giner-Robles, Jorge L.; Díez-Herrero, Andres


    "De una montaña, se desprendió una parte" (A large part of a mountain has fallen down). This sentence was extracted from an ancient text written at the end of the 18th Century, in relation with the great Earthquake of Lisbon in 1755 (Martínez-Solares, 2001), and describing the rock collapse recorded near the small town of Agramón, 50 km southeastward of Albacete city (SE of Spain). Up to now, archaeologists have suggested this rock collapse to the archaeological site of "El Tolmo de Minateda", a small butte (420 m long) of calcarenitic sandstone bedrock with a flat top and scarped cliffs (20m high) bordering the butte. This ancient city was habited by several civilizations from Bronze Ages to modern times (i.e. Iberians, Roman, Visigoths, Muslims, Medieval ages, etc.). The landscape of this area is characterized by a flat terrain with isolated relict structural buttes consisting of Late Neogene marine sandstones created by differential erosion. The site exhibits three different stages of massive rock collapse. The oldest is located at the north of the site while the younger is located at the south part of the site and affecting Visigothic stone carved tombs. Archaeologists have postulated that the youngest of these was triggered by the Lisbon earthquake of 1755. We have carried out a lichenometric analysis over the free-faces of the rock blocks, with the aim of testing the postulate. For our purpose, we have calculated the calibrated growth curve for Aspicilia Radiosa (Hoff.), which yields a linear growth of 0.2425 mm per yr (R2 = 0.97, N=20). This growth rate was determined for the time interval from 800 BP yrs to the present by two different approaches: (1) rates obtained from cemetery measurements (200 yrs BP) and (2) rates determined from well-dated archaeological monuments (200-800 yrs BP). Our analysis revealed that the age of the rock-falling was in the year 1754 AD ±4. Thus, our results confirm that this collapse of ca. 5000 m3 of volume was triggered

  17. Analog earthquakes

    Hofmann, R.B. [Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses, San Antonio, TX (United States)


    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository.

  18. Prediction of slope failure due to earthquake

    CHEN XiaoLi; KATO Nobuaki; TSUNAKI Ryosuke; MUKAI Keiji


    The earthquake-triggered landslides and slope failures are common phenomena during strong earthquakes and have drawn more attention from the world because of severe hazards they induced.These hazards usually cannot be prevented by current mitigating measures,thus,it becomes more and more important to develop a precise technique for the risk assessment of earthquake-induced failures in the mountainous area.The application of discrimination analysis method is proved to be successful and effective in the prediction of earthquake-triggered landslides and slope failures in the region of Imokawa Basin in Japan.Diacriminant score can be used to assess the relative risk of slope failures,as the score increases,the possibility of slope failures occurrence increases accordingly.At the same time,the variables in the judgement formula,such as slope gradient,slope curvature and seismic peak ground acceleration,are easy to obtain.This advantage makes this method more practical and manipulable than others at present.In order to apply this method more effectively,there are still several problems to resolve.

  19. Time Dependence of Shear Wavespeeds in Northern Chile Related to the 2014 Mw8.3 Pisagua Earthquake

    Comte, D.; Arriaza, R. C.; Roecker, S. W.


    The 2014 Mw8.3 Pisagua earthquake in northern Chile ruptured an area of about 160 x 70 km on the boundary between the Nazca and South American plates. Taking advantage of the availability of continuously recorded broadband data from the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC) network in northern Chile from three years before to two years after this event, we determined empirical Greens functions (EGFs) from ambient noise to investigate the time dependence of shear wavespeeds throughout the crust in the upper (South American) plate. Daily EGFs are phase-weight stacked over the entire five-year period using an S-transform technique based on that described by Baig et al. (2009). These pilot stacks are then interferometrically compared to similarly stacked subsets over shorter time windows varying from one month to five days. Instead of analyzing the slope of the phase spectrum within moving windows as is usually done, we determine differences in phase velocity using the vertical component of fundamental mode Rayleigh waves by comparing the phase of the spectra of the EGFs within the time window expected for the wave train. Preliminary results show that such an approach can detect variations in phase velocity on the order of 0.1%. These variations can then be used in an inversion scheme to map the corresponding location and change in the shear wavespeeds within the crust of northern Chile relative to a background model.

  20. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel


    their relationship. The experiences accumulated during the preparation of several case studies in a large scale international project (RAPID) are used for argumentation and formulation of recommendations on how risk assessment can be systematically integrated into the HIA process. Risk assessment uses well...... than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... in the risk appraisal phase to describe effects of various factors on different health outcomes. Consequently, HIA is typically led by a large, preferably intersectoral steering group with representatives of communities at risk. Risk assessment, in contrary, is mainly a licensed scientific process completed...

  1. Aftereffects of Subduction-Zone Earthquakes: Potential Tsunami Hazards along the Japan Sea Coast.

    Minoura, Koji; Sugawara, Daisuke; Yamanoi, Tohru; Yamada, Tsutomu


    The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake is a typical subduction-zone earthquake and is the 4th largest earthquake after the beginning of instrumental observation of earthquakes in the 19th century. In fact, the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake displaced the northeast Japan island arc horizontally and vertically. The displacement largely changed the tectonic situation of the arc from compressive to tensile. The 9th century in Japan was a period of natural hazards caused by frequent large-scale earthquakes. The aseismic tsunamis that inflicted damage on the Japan Sea coast in the 11th century were related to the occurrence of massive earthquakes that represented the final stage of a period of high seismic activity. Anti-compressive tectonics triggered by the subduction-zone earthquakes induced gravitational instability, which resulted in the generation of tsunamis caused by slope failing at the arc-back-arc boundary. The crustal displacement after the 2011 earthquake infers an increased risk of unexpected local tsunami flooding in the Japan Sea coastal areas.

  2. Disturbed social recognition and impaired risk judgement in older residents with mild cognitive impairment after the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011: the Tome Project.

    Akanuma, Kyoko; Nakamura, Kei; Meguro, Kenichi; Chiba, Masanori; Gutiérrez Ubeda, Sergio Ramón; Kumai, Keiichi; Kato, Yuka; Oonuma, Jiro; Kasai, Mari; Nakatsuka, Masahiro; Seki, Takashi; Tomita, Hiroaki


    After the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, we investigated the safety of residents in the affected communities. Most of the people requiring help were elderly and had previously been assessed as Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) 0.5 (i.e. as having mild cognitive impairment (MCI)). We examined how well they understood the television news and whether they could make appropriate decisions. This community-based study of dementia and difficulties following a disaster started in Tome, northern Japan. The subjects were 188 randomly selected older residents who underwent CDR, blood tests, magnetic resonance imaging, and cognitive tests, including an original visual risk cognition task. They were shown NHK news broadcasts from the day of the earthquake to determine whether they could understand the content. Neither the CDR 0 (healthy) nor the CDR 0.5 (MCI) subjects fully understood the television news. Some subjects did not recognize the danger of aftershocks and engaged in risky behaviour. CDR 0.5 subjects who exhibited such behaviour scored lower on the visual risk cognition task. It is noteworthy that television news is difficult to understand, even for healthy older adults. We found that MCI subjects had particular difficulties due to the disaster and suggest that risk cognition could be evaluated using visually presented materials. © 2016 The Authors. Psychogeriatrics © 2016 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

  3. Temporal variation of gravity field prior to the Ludian Ms6.5 and Kangding Ms6.3 earthquakes

    Hongtao Hao


    Full Text Available Using mobile gravity data from the central area of Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, the relationship between gravity variation and earthquakes was studied based on the Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake that occurred on August 3rd, 2014, and the Kangding Ms6.3 earthquake that occurred on November 22nd, 2014; the mechanism of gravity variation was also explored. The results are as follows: (1 Prior to both earthquakes, gravity variation exhibited similar characteristics as those observed before both the Tangshan and Wenchuan earthquakes, in which typical precursor anomalies were positive gravity variation near the epicenter and the occurrence of a high-gravity-gradient zone across the epicenter prior to the earthquake. (2 A relatively accurate prediction of the occurrence locations of the two earthquakes was made by the Gravity Network Center of China (GNCC based on these precursor anomalies. In the gravity study report on the 2014 earthquake trends submitted at the end of 2013, the Daofu-Shimian section at the junction of the Xianshuihe and Longmenshan fault zones was noted as an earthquake-risk region with a predicted magnitude of 6.5, which covered the epicenter of the Kangding Ms6.3 earthquake. In another report on earthquake trends in southwestern China submitted in mid-2014, the Lianfeng, Zhaotong fault zone was also classified as an earthquake-risk region with a magnitude of 6.0, and the central area of this region basically overlapped with the epicenter of the Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake. (3 The gravity variation characteristics are reasonably consistent with crustal movements, and deep material migration is likely the primary cause of gravity variation.


    Mihaela-Daciana BOLOS; Bradut-Vasile BOLOS


    We explore issues related to trademarks, from accounting recognition perspective. The research is a conceptual exploration emphasizing some issues on intellectual property interferences with accounting and some aspects that should be considered in auditpractice

  5. Altered lipid peroxidation markers are related to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and not trauma itself in earthquake survivors.

    Atli, Abdullah; Bulut, Mahmut; Bez, Yasin; Kaplan, İbrahim; Özdemir, Pınar Güzel; Uysal, Cem; Selçuk, Hilal; Sir, Aytekin


    The traumatic life events, including earthquakes, war, and interpersonal conflicts, cause a cascade of psychological and biological changes known as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Malondialdehyde (MDA) is a reliable marker of lipid peroxidation, and paraoxonase is a known antioxidant enzyme. The aims of this study were to investigate the relationship between earthquake trauma, PTSD effects on oxidative stress and the levels of serum paraoxonase 1 (PON1) enzyme activity, and levels of serum MDA. The study was carried out on three groups called: the PTSD group, the traumatized with earthquake exercise group, and healthy control group, which contained 32, 31, and 38 individuals, respectively. Serum MDA levels and PON1 enzyme activities from all participants were measured, and the results were compared across all groups. There were no significant differences between the PTSD patients and non-PTSD earthquake survivors in terms of the study variables. The mean PON1 enzyme activity from PTSD patients was significantly lower, while the mean MDA level was significantly higher than that of the healthy control group (p earthquake survivors who did not develop PTSD showed higher MDA levels and lower PON1 activity when compared to healthy controls. However, the differences between these groups did not reach a statistically significant level. Increased MDA level and decreased PON1 activity measured in PTSD patients after earthquake and may suggest increased oxidative stress in these patients. The nonsignificant trends that are observed in lipid peroxidation markers of earthquake survivors may indicate higher impact of PTSD development on these markers than trauma itself. For example, PTSD diagnosis seems to add to the effect of trauma on serum MDA levels and PON1 enzyme activity. Thus, serum MDA levels and PON1 enzyme activity may serve as biochemical markers of PTSD diagnosis.

  6. Patient trends in orthopedic traumas and related disorders after tsunami caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake: An experience in the primary referral medical center.

    Matsuzawa, Gaku; Sano, Hirotaka; Ohnuma, Hideji; Tomiya, Akihito; Kuwahara, Yoshiyuki; Hashimoto, Chihiro; Imamura, Itaru; Ishibashi, Satoru; Kobayashi, Michio; Kobayashi, Masakazu; Ishii, Tadashi; Kaneda, Iwao; Itoi, Eiji


    In the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Japanese Red Cross Ishinomaki Hospital played an important role as a principal referral center within the Ishinomaki region, one of the most severely affected areas in eastern Japan. The present study describes the patient population, clinical characteristics, and time courses of the medical problems observed at this hospital. A retrospective survey of medical logs and records was conducted on the first 2 weeks after the earthquake to characterize orthopedic traumas and related disorders treated during this catastrophe. Patient number, severity of injuries, number of patients secondarily transported to the referral medical centers in the inland area, and the number of surgeries performed during the study period were investigated. Totally, 7686 patients visited the hospital. Of which, 1807 patients suffered from exogenous diseases, such as trauma, burns, crush syndrome, deep venous thrombosis, and infectious diseases. Patients who suffered from hypothermia were the most frequently seen within the first 2 weeks after the earthquake. Interestingly, most patients' conditions were not severe and required only simple treatments. Four patients (0.2% of patients with exogenous diseases) were secondarily transported to the referral medical centers in the inland area and only four patients were surgically treated because of a lack of available implants, surgical devices, and electric power supply. The Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent tsunami, which occurred during an early spring afternoon, resulted in a unique orthopedic patient population, which included few severely injured patients compared with numerous deaths. We believe that each coastal region hospital should develop its own emergency medical care system to address future tsunami events while considering their surrounding environment. The information described in the present study should be important for preparation toward future events involving massive earthquakes

  7. Pre-seismic anomalous geomagnetic signature related to M8.3 earthquake occurred in Chile on September 16-th, 2015

    Armand Stanica, Dragos, ,, Dr.; Stanica, Dumitru, ,, Dr.; Vladimirescu, Nicoleta


    In this paper, we retrospectively analyzed the geomagnetic data collected, via internet (, on the interval 01 July-30 September 2015 at the observatories Easter Island (IMP) and Pilar (PIL), placed in Chile and Argentina, respectively, to emphasize a possible relationship between the pre-seismic anomalous behavior of the normalized function Bzn and M8.3 earthquake, that occurred in Offshore Coquimbo (Chile) on September 16-th, 2015. The daily mean distributions of the normalized function Bzn=Bz/Bperp (where Bz is vertical component of the geomagnetic field; Bperp is geomagnetic component perpendicular to the geoelectrical strike) and its standard deviation (STDEV) are performed in the ULF frequency range 0.001Hz to 0.0083Hz by using the FFT band-pass filter analysis. It was demonstrated that in pre-seismic conditions the Bzn has a significant enhancement due to the crustal electrical conductivity changes, possibly associated with the earthquake-induced rupture-processes and high-pressure fluid flow through the faulting system developed inside the foci and its neighboring area. After analyzing the anomalous values of the normalized function Bzn obtained at Easter Island and Pilar observatories, the second one taken as reference, we used a statistical analysis, based on a standardized random variable equation, to identify on 1-2 September 2015 a pre-seismic signature related to the M8.3 earthquake. The lead time was 14 days before the M8.3 earthquake occurrence. The final conclusion is that the proposed geomagnetic methodology might be used to provide suitable information for the extreme earthquake hazard assessment.

  8. Brain tumour risk in relation to mobile telephone use

    Johansen, Christoffer


    The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology.......The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology....

  9. Surveying American and Turkish middle school students' existing knowledge of earthquakes by using a systemic network

    Oguz, Ayse

    Global environmental events are becoming increasingly important, because most of them enter our daily lives and somehow shape our everyday activities. Earthquakes are one of the most important environmental events affecting our life. Despite extensive media coverage, the public's scientific knowledge of earthquakes is limited. The purpose of this study was to design a questionnaire by using a new approach "Systemic Networks" to investigate students' existing knowledge of earthquakes. Systemic networks categorize features systematically in terms of events and their related actions. In the study, systemic networks were constructed around four possible features of earthquakes: (a) what are earthquakes? (b) how do earthquakes happen? (c) how can earthquakes affect other things such as objects or living things? and (d) what can be done to protect from earthquakes? The questionnaire was administered to 823 students in 5th through 8th grades. Participants included in the sample were chosen from two different locations: Aydin, Turkey, which is in a high-risk Earthquake zone; and Columbus/OH, which is in a low risk Earthquake zone. In addition, the majority of students in the United States have received formal instruction about earthquakes whereas the majority of students in Turkey have not. Comprehensive Exploratory Factor Analysis (CEFA version 1.03 for MS Windows) was used to examine students' patterns of thinking. Ten factors were found based on the students' common pattern of thinking and all ten factors represented separate themes framed around the features of systemic networks. The research showed similarities as well as differences between the responses in two countries. The US students' scientific knowledge about earthquakes was significantly higher than Turkish students and they held fewer naive beliefs than Turkish students about the definition of earthquakes and about how earthquakes happen. Over half of the students in both countries do not know about

  10. Earthquake engineering for nuclear facilities

    Kuno, Michiya


    This book is a comprehensive compilation of earthquake- and tsunami-related technologies and knowledge for the design and construction of nuclear facilities. As such, it covers a wide range of fields including civil engineering, architecture, geotechnical engineering, mechanical engineering, and nuclear engineering, for the development of new technologies providing greater resistance against earthquakes and tsunamis. It is crucial both for students of nuclear energy courses and for young engineers in nuclear power generation industries to understand the basics and principles of earthquake- and tsunami-resistant design of nuclear facilities. In Part I, "Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plants", the design of nuclear power plants to withstand earthquakes and tsunamis is explained, focusing on buildings, equipment's, and civil engineering structures. In Part II, "Basics of Earthquake Engineering", fundamental knowledge of earthquakes and tsunamis as well as the dynamic response of structures and foundation ground...

  11. Tsunamigenic Ratio of the Pacific Ocean earthquakes and a proposal for a Tsunami Index

    A. Suppasri


    Full Text Available The Pacific Ocean is the location where two-thirds of tsunamis have occurred, resulting in a great number of casualties. Once information on an earthquake has been issued, it is important to understand if there is a tsunami generation risk in relation with a specific earthquake magnitude or focal depth. This study proposes a Tsunamigenic Ratio (TR that is defined as the ratio between the number of earthquake-generated tsunamis and the total number of earthquakes. Earthquake and tsunami data used in this study were selected from a database containing tsunamigenic earthquakes from prior 1900 to 2011. The TR is calculated from earthquake events with a magnitude greater than 5.0, a focal depth shallower than 200 km and a sea depth less than 7 km. The results suggest that a great earthquake magnitude and a shallow focal depth have a high potential to generate tsunamis with a large tsunami height. The average TR in the Pacific Ocean is 0.4, whereas the TR for specific regions of the Pacific Ocean varies from 0.3 to 0.7. The TR calculated for each region shows the relationship between three influential parameters: earthquake magnitude, focal depth and sea depth. The three parameters were combined and proposed as a dimensionless parameter called the Tsunami Index (TI. TI can express better relationship with the TR and with maximum tsunami height, while the three parameters mentioned above cannot. The results show that recent submarine earthquakes had a higher potential to generate a tsunami with a larger tsunami height than during the last century. A tsunami is definitely generated if the TI is larger than 7.0. The proposed TR and TI will help ascertain the tsunami generation risk of each earthquake event based on a statistical analysis of the historical data and could be an important decision support tool during the early tsunami warning stage.

  12. The 2001 Mw7.7 Bhuj, India Earthquake and Eastern North American Ground-Motion Attenuation Relations: Seismic Hazard Implications

    Cramer, C. H.; Bhattacharya, S. N.; Kumar, A.


    It has been suggested that the Mw7.7 2001 Bhuj, India earthquake occurred in a stable continental region with ground-motion attenuation properties similar to eastern North America (ENA). No strong motion recordings for M7 or greater earthquakes have been recorded in ENA, so, if the two regions share similar properties, then observations from the Bhuj earthquake provide important information for hazard assessments in ENA as well as India. This thesis can be tested using seismic data for the Bhuj mainshock. The Indian Meteorological Department recorded accelerograph and broadband seismograph data at distances of 500 to 1800 km. Accelerograph and engineering seismoscope data were recorded at distances of 40 to 1100 km by the Department of Earthquake Engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee. We have processed the accelerograph and broadband data for response spectral accelerations and corrected them to a common NEHRP site class using Joyner and Boore (2000) site factors. The geologic conditions at each recording site were determined using the geologic map of India and categorized as Quaternary sediments, Tertiary sediments, or hard rock. Comparisons were then made to available ENA ground-motion attenuation relations. For peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 1.0 s spectral acceleration (Sa), the geologically-corrected Bhuj data generally fall among the ENA ground-motion attenuation relations. The Bhuj mainshock ground-motion data agree with the collective predictions of the ENA relations given the random uncertainty in ground-motion measurements of a factor of two or more plus the ground-motion attenuation relation modeling uncertainty. From an engineering perspective, this comparison supports the thesis that seismic-wave attenuation in stable continental India is similar to eastern North America.

  13. Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

    Alina Gagarina


    Full Text Available Abstract The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2x2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambient scent type (vanilla vs. peppermint and intensiveness (8 (1mg vs. 16 sprays (2mg of scent concentrate in the same room were manipulated as between subject variables. Risk aversion, effect of anchoring heuristic on bidding, and affect (risk and benefit heuristics were tracked as dependent variables. Scientific aim: To identify whether ambient scent type and intensiveness have effect on risk related behaviour. Findings: Evidence suggests that there are effects of ambient scent on risk related behaviour, thus fulfilling the missing gap to relate ambient environment to decision making heuristics when risks are involved. However, not all heuristics were affected by experimental conditions. Subjects were bidding significantly higher amounts under low anchor conditions, when peppermint scent was around (if compared to vanilla group. Affect risk was perceived as lower in peppermint ambient scent conditions, if compared to the control group. Intensity of ambient scent also had influence on affect risk: subjects perceived less risk under high scent intensity conditions. Conclusions: By manipulating ambient scent, marketers may reduce or increase consumers risk perception and behaviour and as a consequence influence their purchase decisions. Marketers could use peppermint scent in high intensiveness in the situations where they want consumers to undertake higher risks (expensive purchases, gambling, insurance, since stakes were higher under peppermint ambient scent

  14. Aftershock Activity Triggered By the 2014 Earthquake (Mw=6.5), and Its Implications for the Future Seismic Risk in the Marmara Sea, Turkey

    Polat, O.; Kilic, T.; Turkoglu, M.; Kaplan, M.; Kilicarslan, O.; Özer, Ç.; Gok, E.


    Sea. The 2014 GI, 1999 Izmit (Mw=7.6) and 1912 earthquakes have partially broken NAF. It continues to break along the seismic gap in the Marmara Sea implying with a high seismic risk for Istanbul and its vicinity. It is not certain whether this seismic gap will break as a whole or as smaller segments.

  15. A Toolbox for Health Risk Related Decisions


    context of this paradiagm in order to estimate "toxic equivalency factors" for the class of materials known as dioxins . The many dioxin congeners are...the toxic equivalent factor (our relative potency) concept as promulgated by the EPA for congeners of PCBs, dioxins and furans represents a...these ideas. In the conceptual approach, the biomarkers in the table are used to "translate" the data fiom higher dose animal and human data to the

  16. Earthquake Related Variation of Total Electron Content in Ionosphere over Chinese Mainland Derived from Observations of a Nationwide GNSS Network

    Gan, Weijun


    Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) is a key national scientific infrastructure project carried out during 1997-2012 with 2 phases. The network is composed of 260 continuously observed GNSS stations (CORS) and 2081 campaign mode GNSS stations, with the main purpose to monitor the crustal movement, perceptible water vapor (PWV), total electron content (TEC), and many other tectonic and environmental elements around mainland China, by mainly using the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technology. Here, based on the GNSS data of 260 CORS of COMNOC for about 5 years, we investigated the characteristics of TEC in ionosphere over Chinese Mainland and discussed if there was any abnormal change of TEC before and after a big earthquake. our preliminary results show that it is hard to see any convincing precursor of TEC before a big earthquake. However, the huge energy released by a big earthquake can obviously disturb the TEC over meizoseismal area.

  17. EsLorca: An initiative for earthquake education and awareness on seismic risk; EsLorca: una iniciativa para la educacion y concienciacion sobre el riesgo sismico

    Martinez Moreno, F.; Salazar Ortuno, A.; Martinez Diaz, J.; Lopez Martin, J. A.; Terrer Miras, R.; Hernandez Sapena, A.


    The experience of a multidisciplinary group of professionals during the emergency following the damaging Lorca 2011 earthquake shows that a more thorough preparation of the population prior to the event would have reduced the effects on the population in general and even possibly reduced the number of victims. Our aim here is to present a realistic and applicable educational project (EsLorca) based on the knowledge and experience obtained in Lorca in order to fill this educational gap. EsLorca is designed as a training project to help students/citizens to achieve the minimum skills necessary to react appropriately during and after a destructive earthquake on the basis of their understanding of earthquake phenomena, from its geological origins to its effects on buildings. In addition to state education, the project intends in its objectives to reach adult and senior citizens. The educational plan consists of a series of activities designed to last 50 minutes, which can be taken part in during academic tutoring sessions and are easy to organise in neighbourhood associations, senior citizens centres, and the work place and so on. Planning for adults and older citizens would be adapted to the specific conditions and needs of each centre or association. The structure of the plan is sequential. Its initial content is related directly to the emergency before passing on to a suitable knowledge and understanding of the geological phenomenon and its consequences. (Author) 13 refs.

  18. Evaluation of energy related risk acceptance (APHA energy task force)

    Hull, A.P.


    Living in a technological society with large energy requirements involves a number of related actities with attendant health risks, both to the working and to the general public. Therefore, the formulation of some general principles for risk acceptance is necessary. In addition to maximizing benefits and minimizing risk, relevant considerations must be made about the perception of risk as voluntary or involuntary, the number of persons collectively at risk at any one occasion, and the extent to which a risk is a familiar one. With regard to a given benefit, such as a given amount of energy, comparisons of the risks of alternate modes of production may be utilized. However, cost-benefit consideration is essential to the amelioration of current or prospective risks. This is unusual, since it is based on some estimate of the monetary value per premature death averted. It is proposed that increased longevity would be a more satisfactory measure. On a societal basis, large expenditures for additional energy-related pollution control do not appear justifiable since much larger, nonenergy-related health risks are relatively underaddressed. Knowledgeable health professionals could benefit the public by imparting authoritative information in this area.

  19. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M


    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  20. Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

    Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M. [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology


    This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event.

  1. Profile and procedures for fractures among 1323 fracture patients from the 2010 Yushu earthquake, China.

    Kang, Peng; Tang, Bihan; Liu, Yuan; Liu, Xu; Shen, Yan; Liu, Zhipeng; Yang, Hongyang; Zhang, Lulu


    The injuries caused by earthquakes are often complex and of various patterns. Our study included all fracture inpatients from the Yushu earthquake (1323 in total), to learn more about the incidence and distribution of fractures during earthquakes. A retrospective study of the clinical characteristics of hospitalized fracture patients after the 2010 Yushu earthquake was conducted from December 20 to 25, 2010.We reviewed medical records of hospitalized patients who had been evacuated from the Yushu earthquake area between April 14 and June 15, 2010, from 57 hospitals, and also reviewed more than 100 documents assembled from daily medical rescue and disease prevention reports submitted by the frontline rescue organizations. In total, 78.0% of fracture patients were admitted to the hospital within 3 days after the earthquake. There were 1323 patients who presented with 1539 fractures. The most common fracture occurred in the lower limbs, followed by spinal, pelvic, and shoulder-upper limb fractures. The end of the thoracic vertebra and the lumbar vertebra were the high-risk sites for vertebral fractures. A total of 38 patients became paraplegic. A 2-level spatial clustering was detected among the 193 patients presenting with 2 fractures. Analysis profiles of the injuries and clinical features of patients with earthquake-related fractures will positively impact rescue efforts and the treatment of fracture injuries caused by possible future natural disasters. We should assemble orthopedic-related medications and surgical equipment, and allocate them promptly after a major earthquake. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Charles Darwin's earthquake reports

    Galiev, Shamil


    problems which began to discuss only during the last time. Earthquakes often precede volcanic eruptions. According to Darwin, the earthquake-induced shock may be a common mechanism of the simultaneous eruptions of the volcanoes separated by long distances. In particular, Darwin wrote that ‘… the elevation of many hundred square miles of territory near Concepcion is part of the same phenomenon, with that splashing up, if I may so call it, of volcanic matter through the orifices in the Cordillera at the moment of the shock;…'. According to Darwin the crust is a system where fractured zones, and zones of seismic and volcanic activities interact. Darwin formulated the task of considering together the processes studied now as seismology and volcanology. However the difficulties are such that the study of interactions between earthquakes and volcanoes began only recently and his works on this had relatively little impact on the development of geosciences. In this report, we discuss how the latest data on seismic and volcanic events support the Darwin's observations and ideas about the 1835 Chilean earthquake. The material from researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474 is used. We show how modern mechanical tests from impact engineering and simple experiments with weakly-cohesive materials also support his observations and ideas. On the other hand, we developed the mathematical theory of the earthquake-induced catastrophic wave phenomena. This theory allow to explain the most important aspects the Darwin's earthquake reports. This is achieved through the simplification of fundamental governing equations of considering problems to strongly-nonlinear wave equations. Solutions of these equations are constructed with the help of analytic and numerical techniques. The solutions can model different strongly-nonlinear wave phenomena which generate in a variety of physical context. A comparison with relevant experimental observations is also presented.

  3. The earthquakes on 12 April 1998 and 12 July 2004 in Krn Mountains (NW Slovenia – time distribution of aftershocks and magnitude-frequency relation

    Andrej Gosar


    Full Text Available Earthquakes on 12 April 1998 (ML=5.6 and 12. July 2004 (ML=4.9 in Krn Mountains were followed by extensive after shock sequences with several thousand of shocks which lasted for more than one year. In 400 days the first earthquake was followed by 104 and the second one by 89 aftershocks with ML≥2,0. Both strongest aftershocks had magnitudes smaller for 1.4 and 1.3 with respect to the mainshocks, which is slightly more than published values (1.2. Analysis of time distribution of aftershocks with maximum likelihood estimate has shown that the parameters of modified Omori’s law,which describes the hyperbolic decay of aftershock activity with time,arevery similar. This corresponds to the fact that both earthquakes occurred in the same hypocentral area. The value of p parameter is around 1.02. Aftershocks in 1998 clearly show secondary aftershock sequence which started with strongest aftershock on 6 May 1998 (ML=4.2, but there was no secondary sequence in 2004. Analysis of magnitude-frequency (Gutenberg-Richter’s relation with least squares and maximum likelihood estimate has given the value of b parameter for 1998 aftershock sequence between 0.77 and 0.83 and for 2004 sequence between 0.97 and 0.98. This means that the first earthquake was followed by more stronger after shocks.Obtained parameters of modified Omori’s law and Gutenberg-Richter’s relation are in good agreement with values published for similar aftershock sequences.

  4. A Preliminary Study of the Types of Volcanic Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity at the Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano

    Ming Yuehong; Su Wei; Fang Lihua


    Since 2002, a significant increase in seismicity, obvious ground deformation and geochemical anomalies have been observed in the Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic area. A series felt earthquakes occur near the caldera, causing great influence to society. In this paper, the types of volcanic earthquakes recorded by the temporal seismic network since 2002 have been classified by analyzing the spectrum, time-frequency characteristics and seismic waveforms at different stations. The risk of volcano eruptions was also estimated. Our results show that almost all earthquakes occurring in Tianchi volcano are volcanic-tectonic earthquakes. The low frequency seismic waveforms observed at a few stations may be caused by local mediums, and have no relation with long-period events. Although the level of seismicity increased obviously and earthquake swarms occurred more frequently than before, we considered that the magma activity is still in its early stage and the eruption risk of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano is still iow in the near future.

  5. Development of the teaching materials of the elementary school science related to a Volcano, an Earthquake, and a Life.

    Sasaki, R.; Matsumoto, I.; Norimoto, S.; Kanagi, E.; Fujimoto, E.


    Importance of the learning about Volcano, Earthquake and Life is increasing since the disaster by the Tohoku-Earthquake and Tsunami at the 11th March 2011, in Japan. This research aims at the teaching-materials development of the science education of elementary school about natural disaster, disaster prevention, and life respect. We are carrying this research using the following three Methods. 1) We summarize the present student's knowledge and understanding about volcano, Earthquake and Life. 2) We summarize the state of the science teaching materials as disaster prevention, disaster reduction and life education. 3) We discuss about how depending on which the human beings to a natural disaster, and the state of the teaching materials which student study about the importance of a life. In this presentation we made preliminary report about developed teaching materials of Volcanoes of Mt. Sambe and Mt. Dai and the past earthquakes. According to above teaching materials, it found out It is important how a student is accompanied by realistic feelings.

  6. Personality, risk cognitions and motivation related to demand of risk mitigation in transport among Norwegians

    Nordfjærn, Trond; Rundmo, Torbjørn


    There is insufficient knowledge regarding the role of personality traits, transport-related risk cognitions and safety motivation for demand for transport risk mitigation. The aim of this study is to test a model aimed to predict public demand for transport risk mitigation by these psychological risk constructs. A mailed self-completion questionnaire survey was conducted in a random sample of the Norwegian population aged 18–65 years obtained from the Norwegian population registry (n...

  7. Adapting an evidence-based intervention for HIV to avail access to testing and risk-reduction counseling for female victims of sexual violence in post-earthquake Haiti.

    Rahill, Guitele J; Joshi, Manisha; Hernandez, Anthony


    Haiti has the highest prevalence of HIV/AIDS in the Caribbean. Before the 2010 earthquake, Haitian women bore a disproportionate burden of HIV/AIDS, had lower HIV knowledge, less capacity to negotiate for safer sex, and limited access to HIV testing and risk-reduction (RR) counseling. Since 2010, there has been an increase in sexual violence against women, characterized by deliberate vaginal injuries by non-intimate partners, increasing victims' risk of sexually transmitted infections including HIV/AIDS. Needed is an adaptation of evidence-based interventions for HIV that include HIV testing and counseling for this stigmatized population. We reviewed several features of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's 103 evidence-based interventions for HIV (e.g., measures used, participant risk characteristics, theoretical framework, outcome variables, and evidence tier) in an attempt to seek a feasibly adaptable evidence-based intervention for HIV that could be used for victims of sexual violence (VOSV). RESPECT, one of the reviewed evidence-based HIV interventions, comprises of one-on-one, client-focused HIV prevention/RR counseling, and RAPID HIV testing. Adapting RESPECT can enhance access to testing for Haitian VOSV and can influence their perceptions of HIV risk, and establishment of RR goals for future consensual intimate relations. Adapting and implementing RESPECT can increase uptake of evidence-based HIV interventions among Haitians and positively affect a region with high HIV prevalence and increased rates of sexual violence.

  8. Earthquake Hazards Program: Earthquake Scenarios

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A scenario represents one realization of a potential future earthquake by assuming a particular magnitude, location, and fault-rupture geometry and estimating...

  9. Risk Perception Analysis Related To Existing Dams In Italy

    Solimene, Pellegrino


    earthfill dam is illustrated by defining the risk analysis during its construction and operation. A qualitative "Event Tree Analysis" makes clear with an example the probability of occurrence of the events triggered by an earthquake, and leads to a classification of the damage level. Finally, a System Dynamics (SD) approach is presented to investigate possibilities of a preventive planning in relationship to the risk, so that it's possible to establish shared procedures to achieve the correct management in any crisis phase. As a qualitative result of a SD application, figure 1 presents a flow-chart about a case study on the same dam so to illustrate the emergency planning in a step by step procedure according to the Regulations.

  10. Risk of bleeding related to antithrombotic treatment in cardiovascular disease

    Sørensen, Rikke; Olesen, Jonas B; Charlot, Mette;


    Antithrombotic therapy is a cornerstone of treatment in patients with cardiovascular disease with bleeding being the most feared complication. This review describes the risk of bleeding related to different combinations of antithrombotic drugs used for cardiovascular disease: acute coronary...

  11. CKD Increases the Risk of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    Liew, Gerald; Mitchell, Paul; Wong, Tien Yin; Iyengar, Sudha K; Wang, Jie Jin


    Age-related macular degeneration is the leading cause of irreversible blindness in the United States and often coexists with chronic kidney disease. Both conditions share common genetic and environmental risk factors. A total of 1183 participants aged 54+ were examined in the population-based, prospective cohort Blue Mountains Eye Study (Australia) to determine if chronic kidney disease increases the risk of age-related macular degeneration. Moderate chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerul...

  12. Earthquake Safety Tips in the Classroom

    Melo, M. O.; Maciel, B. A. P. C.; Neto, R. P.; Hartmann, R. P.; Marques, G.; Gonçalves, M.; Rocha, F. L.; Silveira, G. M.


    The catastrophes induced by earthquakes are among the most devastating ones, causing an elevated number of human losses and economic damages. But, we have to keep in mind that earthquakes don't kill people, buildings do. Earthquakes can't be predicted and the only way of dealing with their effects is to teach the society how to be prepared for them, and how to deal with their consequences. In spite of being exposed to moderate and large earthquakes, most of the Portuguese are little aware of seismic risk, mainly due to the long recurrence intervals between strong events. The acquisition of safe and correct attitudes before, during and after an earthquake is relevant for human security. Children play a determinant role in the establishment of a real and long-lasting "culture of prevention", both through action and new attitudes. On the other hand, when children assume correct behaviors, their relatives often change their incorrect behaviors to mimic the correct behaviors of their kids. In the framework of a Parents-in-Science initiative, we started with bi-monthly sessions for children aged 5 - 6 years old and 9 - 10 years old. These sessions, in which parents, teachers and high-school students participate, became part of the school's permanent activities. We start by a short introduction to the Earth and to earthquakes by story telling and by using simple science activities to trigger children curiosity. With safety purposes, we focus on how crucial it is to know basic information about themselves and to define, with their families, an emergency communications plan, in case family members are separated. Using a shaking table we teach them how to protect themselves during an earthquake. We then finish with the preparation on an individual emergency kit. This presentation will highlight the importance of encouraging preventive actions in order to reduce the impact of earthquakes on society. This project is developed by science high-school students and teachers, in

  13. Distribution and migration of aftershocks of the 2010 Mw 7.4 Ogasawara Islands intraplate normal-faulting earthquake related to a fracture zone in the Pacific plate

    Obana, Koichiro; Takahashi, Tsutomu; No, Tetsuo; Kaiho, Yuka; Kodaira, Shuichi; Yamashita, Mikiya; Sato, Takeshi; Nakamura, Takeshi


    describe the aftershocks of a Mw 7.4 intraplate normal-faulting earthquake that occurred 150 km east Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands, Japan, on 21 December 2010. It occurred beneath the outer trench slope of the Izu-Ogasawara trench, where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the Philippine Sea plate. Aftershock observations using ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) began soon after the earthquake and multichannel seismic reflection surveys were conducted across the aftershock area. Aftershocks were distributed in a NW-SE belt 140 km long, oblique to the N-S trench axis. They formed three subparallel lineations along a fracture zone in the Pacific plate. The OBS observations combined with data from stations on Chichi-jima and Haha-jima Islands revealed a migration of the aftershock activity. The first hour, which likely outlines the main shock rupture, was limited to an 80 km long area in the central part of the subsequent aftershock area. The first hour activity occurred mainly around, and appears to have been influenced by, nearby large seamounts and oceanic plateau, such as the Ogasawara Plateau and the Uyeda Ridge. Over the following days, the aftershocks expanded beyond or into these seamounts and plateau. The aftershock distribution and migration suggest that crustal heterogeneities related to a fracture zone and large seamounts and oceanic plateau in the incoming Pacific plate affected the rupture of the main shock. Such preexisting structures may influence intraplate normal-faulting earthquakes in other regions of plate flexure prior to subduction.

  14. Soft-sediment deformation structures related to volcanic earthquakes of the Lower Cretaceous Qingshan Group in Lingshan Island, Shandong Province, East China

    Yao-Qi Zhou


    The SSDS types in the Qingshan Group includes load and flame structure, ball and pillow structure, water-escape structure, hydroplastic deformation structure, plastic sandstone breccia structure, volcanic drop stone and V-shaped ground fissure mainly caused by volcanic earthquakes of three types: (1 seismic waves, (2 gravity and inertia effect of pyroclastic flows, (3 instant differential air pressure; which is different from slumping and tectonic earthquakes occurred in the Laiyang Group. In addition, with the lithofacies association analysis between pyroclastic flow and SSDS beds, a distribution model of SSDS related to volcanic earthquakes can be established: SSDS types changed gradually with their distance further away from the volcanic activity core. Brittle deformation which was common in the proximal zone disappeared gradually; liquefied and plastic SSDS continued to dominate in the medial zone; and slightly liquefied SSDS were developed in the distal zone. Meanwhile, the scale and size of SSDS is negatively correlated with the distance of SSDS depositional locations from the volcanic vent.

  15. Risk communication related to animal products derived from biotechnology.

    McCrea, D


    Previous chapters of this review have dealt with the key considerations related to the application of biotechnology in veterinary science and animal production. This article explores the theory and practice of risk communication and sets out the basic principles for good risk communication when dealing with new technologies, uncertainty, and cautious and sceptical consumers. After failure to communicate with consumers and stakeholders about the risk to human health from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the 1990s, Government Agencies in the United Kingdom have made significant improvements in risk communication. The official inquiry that followed the BSE crisis concluded that a policy of openness was the correct approach, and this article emphasises the importance of consultation, consistency and transparency. There are, however, many different factors that affect public perception of risk (religious, political, social, cultural, etc.) and developing effective risk communication strategies must take all of these complex issues into consideration.

  16. Hazus® estimated annualized earthquake losses for the United States

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, Doug; Rozelle, Jesse; Holub, John; McGowan, Sean


    Large earthquakes can cause social and economic disruption that can be unprecedented to any given community, and the full recovery from these impacts may or may not always be achievable. In the United States (U.S.), the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake in California remains the third costliest disaster in U.S. history; and it was one of the most expensive disasters for the federal government. Internationally, earthquakes in the last decade alone have claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic impact throughout the globe (~90 billion U.S. dollars (USD) from 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan China, ~20 billion USD from 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, ~220 billion USD from 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake, ~25 billion USD from 2011 M6.3 Christchurch New Zealand, and ~22 billion USD from 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto Japan). Recent earthquakes show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses that are primarily due to three key factors: (1) significant growth in earthquake-prone urban areas, (2) vulnerability of the older building stock, including poorly engineered non-ductile concrete buildings, and (3) an increased interdependency in terms of supply and demand for the businesses that operate among different parts of the world. In the United States, earthquake risk continues to grow with increased exposure of population and development even though the earthquake hazard has remained relatively stable except for the regions of induced seismic activity. Understanding the seismic hazard requires studying earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur, while understanding the risk requires an assessment of the potential damage from earthquake shaking to the built environment and to the welfare of people—especially in high-risk areas. Estimating the varying degree of earthquake risk throughout the United States is critical for informed decision-making on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies, and funding levels in the

  17. Discussion of the Geo-Hazard Model in US Earthquake Risk Assessment%美国地震风险评估中灾害模型的探讨

    吴凡; 汪明; 刘宁


    The paper introduced the models of risk assessment for earthquake hazard, based on US earthquake hazard assessment model, in the field of insurance and civil engineering. It briefly reviews the modeling history and development background of the models, which could be found that the model for insurance industry was built with historical client claimed data in early years, and the model for civil engineering was based more on the building structural analysis in recent years, with the needs of better accurate assessment of buildings and the fast development of computational mechanics. The paper mainly focuses on the discussion of two modules that consist of the part of geological hazard of the model, the hazard factors, and hazard environments. It details the key components in these modules, such as earthquake sources, magnitude, attenuation equations, local soil conditions, and the earthquake recurrence rate, etc. It lists the updated attenuation formulas that are commonly used in US earthquake modeling. It analyzes the procedure of establishing the key hazard components with standard response spectrum and modified response spectrum, by considering local soil types, liquefaction, and landslides. It provides the information of how to obtain the related exposure data and databases from guidelines and resources. It further discusses the approaches of quantifying the hazard risk factors.%介绍了以美国地震灾害模型为例的地震风险评估在金融保险业和土木工程两大领域的应用,回顾了地震灾害风险评估发展的历史背景,其中,金融保险业的模型更测重于对历史理赔数据的分析,土木工程业的模型则注重于对工程结构的分析.着重探讨了评估模型中地震灾害部分的建立,其中包括致灾因子模块及孕灾环境模块.针对建模中致灾因子、孕灾环境等的关键要素,如地震源及震级、地震衰减方式、场地土壤土质条件、地震复发率等,作了分析及归纳

  18. A coccidioidomycosis outbreak following the Northridge, Calif, earthquake

    Schneider, E.; Hajjeh, R.A.; Spiegel, R.A.; Jibson, R.W.; Harp, E.L.; Marshall, G.A.; Gunn, R.A.; McNeil, M.M.; Pinner, R.W.; Baron, R.C.; Burger, R.C.; Hutwagner, L.C.; Crump, C.; Kaufman, L.; Reef, S.E.; Feldman, G.M.; Pappagianis, D.; Werner, S.B.


    Objective. - To describe a coccidioidomycosis outbreak in Ventura County following the January 1994 earthquake, centered in Northridge, Calif, and to identify factors that increased the risk for acquiring acute coccidioidomycosis infection. Design. - Epidemic investigation, population- based skin test survey, and case-control study. Setting. - Ventura County, California. Results. - In Ventura County, between January 24 and March 15, 1994, 203 outbreak-associated coccidioidomycosis cases, including 3 fatalities, were identified (attack rate [AR], 30 cases per 100 000 population). The majority of cases (56%) and the highest AR (114 per 100 000 population) occurred in the town of Simi Valley, a community located at the base of a mountain range that experienced numerous landslides associated with the earthquake. Disease onset for cases peaked 2 weeks after the earthquake. The AR was 2.8 times greater for persons 40 years of age and older than for younger persons (relative risk, 2.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1-3.7; Pcoccidioidomycosis. Conclusions. - Both the location and timing of cases strongly suggest that the coccidioidomycosis outbreak in Ventura County was caused when arthrospores were spread in dust clouds generated by the earthquake. This is the first report of a coccidioidomycosis outbreak following an earthquake. Public and physician awareness, especially in endemic areas following similar dust cloud- generating events, may result in prevention and early recognition of acute coccidioidomycosis.

  19. 3D Faulting Numerical Model Related To 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake Based On DInSAR Observations

    Castaldo, Raffaele; Tizzani, Pietro; Solaro, Giuseppe; Pepe, Susi; Lanari, Riccardo


    We investigate the surface displacements in the area affected by the April 6, 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Central Italy) through an advanced 3D numerical modeling approach, by exploiting DInSAR deformation velocity maps based on ENVISAT (Ascending and Descending orbits) and COSMO-SkyMed data (Ascending orbit). We benefited from the available geological and geophysical information to investigate the impact of known buried structures on the modulation of the observed ground deformation field; in this context we implemented the a priori information in a Finite Element (FE) Environment considering a structural mechanical physical approach. The performed analysis demonstrate that the displacement pattern associated with the Mw 6.3 main-shock event is consistent with the activation of several fault segments of the Paganica fault. In particular, we analyzed the seismic events in a structural mechanical context under the plane stress mode approximation to solve for the retrieved displacements. We defined the sub-domain setting of the 3D FEM model using the information derived from the CROOP M-15 seismic line. We assumed stationarity and linear elasticity of the involved materials by considering a solution of classical equilibrium mechanical equations. We evolved our model through two stages: the model compacted under the weight of the rock successions (gravity loading) until it reached a stable equilibrium. At the second stage (co-seismic), where the stresses were released through a slip along the faults, by using an optimization procedure we retrieved: (i) the active seismogenic structures responsible for the observed ground deformation, (ii) the effects of the different mechanical constraints on the ground deformation pattern and (iii) the spatial distribution of the retrieved stress field. We evaluated the boundary setting best fit configuration responsible for the observed ground deformation. To this aim, we first generated several forward structural mechanical models

  20. Hydrochemistry of the hot springs in western Sichuan province related to the Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake.

    Chen, Zhi; Du, Jianguo; Zhou, Xiaocheng; Yi, Li; Liu, Lei; Xie, Chao; Cui, Yueju; Li, Ying


    Hydrogeochemistry of 32 hot springs in the western Sichuan Province after the Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake was investigated by analyzing the concentrations of cation and anion and the isotopic compositions of hydrogen and oxygen. The water samples of the hot springs were collected four times from June 2008 to April 2010. Hydrogeochemical data indicated the water samples can be classified into 9 chemical types. Values of δ D and δ(18)O indicated that the spring waters were mainly derived from meteoric precipitation and affected by water-rock interaction and mixture of deep fluids. Concentrations of K(+)and SO4(-) of the samples from the Kangding district exhibited evident increases before the Wenchuan earthquake, indicating more supplement of deep fluids under the increase of tectonic stress. The chemical and isotopic variations of the water samples from the area closer to the epicenter area can be attributed to variation of regional stress field when the aftershock activities became weak.

  1. Spatial variations in fault friction related to lithology from rupture and afterslip of the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake

    Michael Floyd,; Richard Walters,; John Elliot,; Gareth Funning,; Svarc, Jerry L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Andy Hooper,; Yngvar Larsen,; Petar Marinkovic,; Roland Burgmann,; Johanson, Ingrid; Tim Wright,


    Following earthquakes, faults are often observed to continue slipping aseismically. It has been proposed that this afterslip occurs on parts of the fault with rate-strengthening friction that are stressed by the mainshock, but our understanding has been limited by a lack of immediate, high-resolution observations. Here we show that the behavior of afterslip following the 2014 South Napa earthquake varied over distances of only a few kilometers. This variability cannot be explained by coseismic stress changes alone. We present daily positions from continuous and survey GPS sites that we re-measured within 12 hours of the mainshock, and surface displacements from the new Sentinel-1 radar mission. This unique geodetic data set constrains the distribution and evolution of coseismic and postseismic fault slip with exceptional resolution in space and time. We suggest that the observed heterogeneity in behavior is caused by lithological controls on the frictional properties of the fault plane.

  2. Serum glucose and fructosamine in relation to risk of cancer.

    Wahyu Wulaningsih

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Impaired glucose metabolism has been linked with increased cancer risk, but the association between serum glucose and cancer risk remains unclear. We used repeated measurements of glucose and fructosamine to get more insight into the association between the glucose metabolism and risk of cancer. METHODS: We selected 11,998 persons (>20 years old with four prospectively collected serum glucose and fructosamine measurements from the Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk (AMORIS study. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess standardized log of overall mean glucose and fructosamine in relation to cancer risk. Similar analyses were performed for tertiles of glucose and fructosamine and for different types of cancer. RESULTS: A positive trend was observed between standardized log overall mean glucose and overall cancer risk (HR= 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14. Including standardized log fructosamine in the model resulted in a stronger association between glucose and cancer risk and aninverse association between fructosamine and cancer risk (HR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.08-1.26 and HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.82-0.96, respectively. Cancer risks were highest among those in the highest tertile of glucose and lowest tertile of fructosamine. Similar findings were observed for prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer while none observed for breast cancer. CONCLUSION: The contrasting effect between glucose, fructosamine, and cancer risk suggests the existence of distinct groups among those with impaired glucose metabolism, resulting in different cancer risks based on individual metabolic profiles. Further studies are needed to clarify whether glucose is a proxy of other lifestyle-related or metabolic factors.

  3. Serum glucose and fructosamine in relation to risk of cancer.

    Wulaningsih, Wahyu; Holmberg, Lars; Garmo, Hans; Zethelius, Björn; Wigertz, Annette; Carroll, Paul; Lambe, Mats; Hammar, Niklas; Walldius, Göran; Jungner, Ingmar; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke


    Impaired glucose metabolism has been linked with increased cancer risk, but the association between serum glucose and cancer risk remains unclear. We used repeated measurements of glucose and fructosamine to get more insight into the association between the glucose metabolism and risk of cancer. We selected 11,998 persons (>20 years old) with four prospectively collected serum glucose and fructosamine measurements from the Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk (AMORIS) study. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess standardized log of overall mean glucose and fructosamine in relation to cancer risk. Similar analyses were performed for tertiles of glucose and fructosamine and for different types of cancer. A positive trend was observed between standardized log overall mean glucose and overall cancer risk (HR= 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14). Including standardized log fructosamine in the model resulted in a stronger association between glucose and cancer risk and aninverse association between fructosamine and cancer risk (HR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.08-1.26 and HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.82-0.96, respectively). Cancer risks were highest among those in the highest tertile of glucose and lowest tertile of fructosamine. Similar findings were observed for prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer while none observed for breast cancer. The contrasting effect between glucose, fructosamine, and cancer risk suggests the existence of distinct groups among those with impaired glucose metabolism, resulting in different cancer risks based on individual metabolic profiles. Further studies are needed to clarify whether glucose is a proxy of other lifestyle-related or metabolic factors.

  4. Earthquake impact scale

    Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.


    With the advent of the USGS prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response (PAGER) system, which rapidly assesses earthquake impacts, U.S. and international earthquake responders are reconsidering their automatic alert and activation levels and response procedures. To help facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake response, an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) is proposed on the basis of two complementary criteria. On the basis of the estimated cost of damage, one is most suitable for domestic events; the other, on the basis of estimated ranges of fatalities, is generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in developing countries. Simple thresholds, derived from the systematic analysis of past earthquake impact and associated response levels, are quite effective in communicating predicted impact and response needed after an event through alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1,000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered by estimated losses reaching $1M, $100M, and $1B, respectively. The rationale for a dual approach to earthquake alerting stems from the recognition that relatively high fatalities, injuries, and homelessness predominate in countries in which local building practices typically lend themselves to high collapse and casualty rates, and these impacts lend to prioritization for international response. In contrast, financial and overall societal impacts often trigger the level of response in regions or countries in which prevalent earthquake resistant construction practices greatly reduce building collapse and resulting fatalities. Any newly devised alert, whether economic- or casualty-based, should be intuitive and consistent with established lexicons and procedures. Useful alerts should

  5. Foreshock and aftershock sequences of the Cremasta earthquake and their relation to the waterloading of the Cremasta artificial lake



    Full Text Available Investigation of the time and magnitude distribution
    of the fore- and aftershocks of the Cremasta lake earthquake which occurred
    on February 5, 1966 is made. The deformation characteristics and
    spatial distribution of these shocks is also studied. Strong evidence is presented
    that the foreshocks and the main shock have been triggered by the
    waterloading of the Cremasta artificial lake.

  6. The survey and mapping of sand-boil landforms related to the Emilia 2012 earthquakes: preliminary results

    Andrea Ninfo


    Full Text Available Sand boils, which are also known as sand blows or sand volcanoes, are among the most common superficial effects induced by high-magnitude earthquakes. These generally occur in or close to alluvial plains when a strong earthquake (M >5 strikes on a lens of saturated and unconsolidated sand deposits that are constrained between silt-clay layers [Ambraseys 1988, Carter and Seed 1988, Galli 2000, Tuttle 2001, Obermeier et al. 2005], where the sediments are converted into a fluid suspension. The liquefaction phenomena requires the presence of saturated and uncompacted sand, and a groundwater table near the ground surface. This geological–geomorphological setting is common and widespread for the Po Plain (Italy [Castiglioni et al. 1997]. The Po Plain (ca. 46,000 km2 represents 15% of the Italian territory. It hosts a population of about 20 million people (mean density of 450 people/km2 and many infrastructures. Thus, the Po Plain is an area of high vulnerability when considering the liquefaction potential in the case of a strong earthquake. Despite the potential, such phenomena are rarely observed in northern Italy [Cavallin et al. 1977, Galli 2000], because strong earthquakes are not frequent in this region; e.g., historical data report soil liquefaction near Ferrara in 1570 (M 5.3 and in Argenta 1624 (M 5.5 [Prestininzi and Romeo 2000, Galli 2000]. In the Emilia quakes of May 20 and 29, 2012, the most widespread coseismic effects were soil liquefaction and ground cracks, which occurred over wide areas in the Provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Bologna, Reggio Emilia and Mantova (Figure 1. […

  7. Investigating Seismic Precursory Signatures in Earthquake-related Self-potential Signals by using Fisher Information Measure Analysis

    Telesca, L.; Lovallo, M.; Ramirez-Rojas, A.; Angulo-Brown, F.


    The time fluctuations of self-potential data, recorded at the monitoring station Acapulco (Mexico) during 1994-1996 in the seismic area of Guerrero-Oaxaca, are analyzed by means of the Fisher Information Measure (FIM), a nonlinear powerful method to investigate complex dynamics in time series. The time evolution of the FIM shows a clear correlation with the largest earthquakes occurred in the monitored area during the observation period. Seismic precursory patterns in the FIM evolution are also revealed

  8. The 2015 Gorkha Nepal Earthquake: Insights from Earthquake Damage Survey

    Katsuichiro eGoda


    Full Text Available The 2015 Gorkha Nepal earthquake caused tremendous damage and loss. To gain valuable lessons from this tragic event, an earthquake damage investigation team was dispatched to Nepal from 1 May 2015 to 7 May 2015. A unique aspect of the earthquake damage investigation is that first-hand earthquake damage data were obtained 6 to 11 days after the mainshock. To gain deeper understanding of the observed earthquake damage in Nepal, the paper reviews the seismotectonic setting and regional seismicity in Nepal and analyzes available aftershock data and ground motion data. The earthquake damage observations indicate that the majority of the damaged buildings were stone/brick masonry structures with no seismic detailing, whereas the most of RC buildings were undamaged. This indicates that adequate structural design is the key to reduce the earthquake risk in Nepal. To share the gathered damage data widely, the collected damage data (geo-tagged photos and observation comments are organized using Google Earth and the kmz file is made publicly available.

  9. Effect of near-fault earthquake on bridges: lessons learned from Chi-Chi earthquake


    The objective of this paper is to describe the lessons learned and actions that have been taken related to the seismicdesign of bridge structures after the Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. Much variable near-fault ground motion data was collected fromthe rupture of Chelungpu fault during the Chi-Chi earthquake, allowing the seismic response of bridge structures subjected to thesenear-fault ground motions to be carefully examined. To study the near-fault ground motion effect on bridge seismic design codes, atwo-level seismic design of bridge structures was developed and implemented. This design code reflects the near-fault factors in theseismic design forces. Finally, a risk assessment methodology, based on bridge vulnerability, is also developed to assist in decisionsfor reducing seismic risk due to failure of bridges.

  10. ALMA measures Calama earthquake

    Brito, R.; Shillue, B.


    On 4 March 2010, the ALMA system response to an extraordinarily large disturbance was measured when a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck near Calama, Chile, relatively close to the ALMA site. Figures 1 through 4 demonstrate the remarkable performance of the ALMA system to a huge disturbance that was more than 100 times the specification for correction accuracy.

  11. Correlation between Earthquakes and AE Monitoring of Historical Buildings in Seismic Areas

    Giuseppe Lacidogna


    Full Text Available In this contribution a new method for evaluating seismic risk in regional areas based on the acoustic emission (AE technique is proposed. Most earthquakes have precursors, i.e., phenomena of changes in the Earth’s physical-chemical properties that take place prior to an earthquake. Acoustic emissions in materials and earthquakes in the Earth’s crust, despite the fact that they take place on very different scales, are very similar phenomena; both are caused by a release of elastic energy from a source located in a medium. For the AE monitoring, two important constructions of Italian cultural heritage are considered: the chapel of the “Sacred Mountain of Varallo” and the “Asinelli Tower” of Bologna. They were monitored during earthquake sequences in their relative areas. By using the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm, a statistical method of analysis was developed that detects AEs as earthquake precursors or aftershocks. Under certain conditions it was observed that AEs precede earthquakes. These considerations reinforce the idea that the AE monitoring can be considered an effective tool for earthquake risk evaluation.

  12. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Strategy in Indonesia

    Karnawati, D.; Anderson, R.; Pramumijoyo, S.


    Because of the active tectonic setting of the region, the risks of geological hazards inevitably increase in Indonesian Archipelagoes and other ASIAN countries. Encouraging community living in the vulnerable area to adapt with the nature of geology will be the most appropriate strategy for earthquake risk reduction. Updating the Earthquake Hazard Maps, enhancement ofthe existing landuse management , establishment of public education strategy and method, strengthening linkages among stake holders of disaster mitigation institutions as well as establishement of continues public consultation are the main strategic programs for community resilience in earthquake vulnerable areas. This paper highlights some important achievements of Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Programs in Indonesia, together with the difficulties in implementing such programs. Case examples of Yogyakarta and Bengkulu Earthquake Mitigation efforts will also be discussed as the lesson learned. The new approach for developing earthquake hazard map which is innitiating by mapping the psychological aspect of the people living in vulnerable area will be addressed as well.

  13. [Science, technique, and culture: relations between risk and health practices].

    Czeresnia, Dina


    This article discusses the cultural consequences of discourses and practices aimed at training subjects for a rational, informed choice in relation to risks, calculated on the basis of scientific knowledge. The epidemiological risk concept is a central element in this process, especially in the context of health practices. The article begins by briefly characterizing the epidemiological risk concept, emphasizing that as an abstract model, it reduces the complexity of the phenomena it studies. Grasping reality through this abstraction generates values and meanings. Canguilhem's reflection on the relations between science, technique, and life is further discussed from the perspective of deepening an understanding of the cultural consequences of this process, contributing to the transformation of classical concepts of individuality, autonomy, and sociability. Such vital themes as individuality, alterity, and the relationship with death are present (albeit disguised) in issues that involve the central nature of risk in the contemporary world.

  14. Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

    Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J


    A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

  15. Human casualties in earthquakes: modelling and mitigation

    Spence, R.J.S.; So, E.K.M.


    Earthquake risk modelling is needed for the planning of post-event emergency operations, for the development of insurance schemes, for the planning of mitigation measures in the existing building stock, and for the development of appropriate building regulations; in all of these applications estimates of casualty numbers are essential. But there are many questions about casualty estimation which are still poorly understood. These questions relate to the causes and nature of the injuries and deaths, and the extent to which they can be quantified. This paper looks at the evidence on these questions from recent studies. It then reviews casualty estimation models available, and finally compares the performance of some casualty models in making rapid post-event casualty estimates in recent earthquakes.

  16. The Role of Citizen Science in Risk Mitigation and Disaster Response: A Case Study of 2015 Nepalese Earthquake Using OpenStreetMap

    Rieger, C.; Byrne, J. M.


    Citizen science includes networks of ordinary people acting as sensors, observing and recording information for science. OpenStreetMap is one such sensor network which empowers citizens to collaboratively produce a global picture from free geographic information. The success of this open source software is extended by the development of freely used open databases for the user community. Participating citizens do not require a high level of skill. Final results are processed by professionals following quality assurance protocols before map information is released. OpenStreetMap is not only the cheapest source of timely maps in many cases but also often the only source. This is particularly true in developing countries. Emergency responses to the recent earthquake in Nepal illustrates the value for rapidly updated geographical information. This includes emergency management, damage assessment, post-disaster response, and future risk mitigation. Local disaster conditions (landslides, road closings, bridge failures, etc.) were documented for local aid workers by citizen scientists working remotely. Satellites and drones provide digital imagery of the disaster zone and OpenStreetMap participants shared the data from locations around the globe. For the Nepal earthquake, OpenStreetMap provided a team of volunteers on the ground through their Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) which contribute data to the disaster response through smartphones and laptops. This, combined with global citizen science efforts, provided immediate geographically useful maps to assist aid workers, including the Red Cross and Canadian DART Team, and the Nepalese government. As of August 2014, almost 1.7 million users provided over 2.5 billion edits to the OpenStreetMap map database. Due to the increased usage of smartphones, GPS-enabled devices, and the growing participation in citizen science projects, data gathering is proving an effective way to contribute as a global citizen. This paper

  17. Potential earthquake faults offshore Southern California, from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point

    Fisher, M.A.; Sorlien, C.C.; Sliter, R.W.


    Urban areas in Southern California are at risk from major earthquakes, not only quakes generated by long-recognized onshore faults but also ones that occur along poorly understood offshore faults. We summarize recent research findings concerning these lesser known faults. Research by the U.S. Geological Survey during the past five years indicates that these faults from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point pose a potential earthquake threat. Historical seismicity in this area indicates that, in general, offshore faults can unleash earthquakes having at least moderate (M 5-6) magnitude. Estimating the earthquake hazard in Southern California is complicated by strain partitioning and by inheritance of structures from early tectonic episodes. The three main episodes are Mesozoic through early Miocene subduction, early Miocene crustal extension coeval with rotation of the Western Transverse Ranges, and Pliocene and younger transpression related to plate-boundary motion along the San Andreas Fault. Additional complication in the analysis of earthquake hazards derives from the partitioning of tectonic strain into strike-slip and thrust components along separate but kinematically related faults. The eastern Santa Barbara Basin is deformed by large active reverse and thrust faults, and this area appears to be underlain regionally by the north-dipping Channel Islands thrust fault. These faults could produce moderate to strong earthquakes and destructive tsunamis. On the Malibu coast, earthquakes along offshore faults could have left-lateral-oblique focal mechanisms, and the Santa Monica Mountains thrust fault, which underlies the oblique faults, could give rise to large (M ??7) earthquakes. Offshore faults near Santa Monica Bay and the San Pedro shelf are likely to produce both strike-slip and thrust earthquakes along northwest-striking faults. In all areas, transverse structures, such as lateral ramps and tear faults, which crosscut the main faults, could

  18. Near real-time model to monitor SST anomalies related to undersea earthquakes and SW monsoon phenomena from TRMM-AQUA satellite data

    Chakravarty, Subhas

    impending under-sea earthquakes sometimes leading to tsunamis. The results of the analysis for the ENSO-Monsoon rainfall relation show that the time series of SST distribution within the Nino 4 or Nino-BP regions with larger number of pixels with SSTs between 27-28° C is generally a favourable condition for normal rainfall condi-tion. While both Nino 4 and Nino-BP provide similar results, Nino-BP region is found to be a more sensitive region for such assessment of monitoring the trend of SW monsoon rainfall over India. This result has the potential to be used in the prognosis of overall rainfall pattern of the monsoon season at weekly intervals which may serve as vital information for Indian agricul-tural production. While simple geophysical models are able to explain the above correlations, more detailed modelling of the plate tectonics and heat fluxes (for undersea earthquakes) and ocean-cloud interaction/dynamics (for ENSO and Monsoon rainfall pattern) would need to be undertaken.

  19. Earthquake engineering research: 1982

    The Committee on Earthquake Engineering Research addressed two questions: What progress has research produced in earthquake engineering and which elements of the problem should future earthquake engineering pursue. It examined and reported in separate chapters of the report: Applications of Past Research, Assessment of Earthquake Hazard, Earthquake Ground Motion, Soil Mechanics and Earth Structures, Analytical and Experimental Structural Dynamics, Earthquake Design of Structures, Seismic Interaction of Structures and Fluids, Social and Economic Aspects, Earthquake Engineering Education, Research in Japan.

  20. Earthquake Hazard Assessment: Basics of Evaluation

    Kossobokov, Vladimir


    Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. Earthquakes follow the Unified Scaling Law that generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship by taking into account naturally fractal distribution of their sources. Moreover, earthquakes, including the great and mega events, are clustered in time and their sequences have irregular recurrence intervals. Furthermore, earthquake related observations are limited to the recent most decades (or centuries in just a few rare cases). Evidently, all this complicates reliable assessment of seismic hazard and associated risks. Making SHA claims, either termless or time dependent (so-called t-DASH), quantitatively probabilistic in the frames of the most popular objectivists' viewpoint on probability requires a long series of "yes/no" trials, which cannot be obtained without an extended rigorous testing of the method predictions against real observations. Therefore, we reiterate the necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing supplies us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified in brief with a few examples, which analyses in more detail are given in a poster of

  1. Time perspective and perceived risk as related to mammography screening.

    Griva, Fay; Anagnostopoulos, Fotios; Potamianos, Gregory


    The present study explored the relation of time perspective to perceived risk for breast cancer and mammography screening. Women free from breast cancer (N = 194), eligible for mammography screening in terms of age, completed the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (Zimbardo & Boyd, 1999) and measures of perceived risk, attitude toward performing mammography screening, intention to get a mammogram, and mammography screening behavior. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed that perceived risk of breast cancer (β= .18, p < .01) and intention to be screened (β = .35, p < .01) were significantly associated with mammography screening, after controlling for the effects of sociodemographic (e.g., age, education, and economic level) and health-related variables (e.g., family history of breast cancer and previous benign breast disease). Path analyses including the main psychological variables indicated that perceived risk was indirectly related to intention via attitude (β = .17, p < .01), and to mammography screening through attitude and intention (β = .06, p < .01). Attitude was indirectly related to mammography screening via intention (β = .20, p < .01). Also, a significant indirect association was observed between future orientation and mammography screening, via perceived risk (β = .10, p < .01). Theoretical implications of study findings and suggestions for future research on use of mammography are presented.

  2. Determination of the fault plane and rupture size of the 2013 Santa Cruz earthquake, Bolivia, 5.2 Mw, by relative location of the aftershocks

    Rivadeneyra-Vera, C.; Assumpção, M.; Minaya, E.; Aliaga, P.; Avila, G.


    The Central Andes of southern Bolivia is a highly seismic region with many active faults, that could generate earthquakes up to 8.9 Mw. In 2013, an earthquake of 5.2 Mw occurred in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, in the sub-Andean belt, close to the Mandeyapecua fault, one of the most important reverse faults in Bolivia. Five larger aftershocks were reported by the International Seismological Centre (ISC) and 33 smaller aftershocks were recorded by the San Calixto Observatory (OSC) in the two months after the mainshock. Distances between epicenters of the events were up to 36 km, which is larger than expected for an earthquake of this magnitude. Using data from South American regional stations and the relative location technique with Rayleigh waves, the epicenters of the five larger aftershocks of the Santa Cruz series were determined in relation to the mainshock. This method enabled to achieve epicentral locations with uncertainties smaller than 1 km. Additionally, using data of three Bolivian stations (MOC, SIV and LPAZ) eight smaller aftershocks, recorded by the OSC, were relocated through correlation of P and S waves. The results show a NNW-SSE trend of epicenters and suggest an E dipping plane. The maximum distance between the aftershocks is 14 km, which is not consistent with the expected subsurface rupture length, in accordance with the magnitude of the mainshock. The events are located away from the Mandeyapecua fault and show an opposite dip, demonstrating that these events were generated by another fault in the area, that had not been well studied yet.

  3. Are all risks equal? Early experiences of poverty-related risk and children's functioning.

    Roy, Amanda L; Raver, C Cybele


    Using cumulative risk and latent class analysis (LCA) models, we examined how exposure to deep poverty (income-to-needs ratio poverty-related risks (i.e., single-parent household, residential crowding, caregiver depression, and multiple life stressors) in preschool is related to children's future difficulty in school in a longitudinal sample of 602 Head Start-enrolled, low-income families. Results from the LCA revealed 4 risk profiles: low risk, deep poverty and single, single and stressed, and deep poverty and crowded household. Tests of measurement invariance across racial/ethnic groups established that, although patterns of risk are similar across groups (i.e., risks covary in the same way), the prevalence of risk profiles differs. African American families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and single" profile while Latino and White families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and crowded" profile. Finally, children's third grade functioning in 3 domains (i.e., academic performance, behavior problems, and self-regulatory skills) was predicted using a cumulative risk index and LCA-identified risk profiles. Both approaches demonstrated that children who experienced higher levels of risk in preschool had worse school performance than children with low levels of risk. However, LCA also revealed that children who experienced "single and stressed" family settings had more behavior problems than low-risk children while children who experienced "deep poverty and crowded" family settings had worse academic performance. The results indicate that all risks are not equal for children's development and highlight the utility of LCA for tailoring intervention efforts to best meet the needs of target populations.

  4. GPS deformation related to the Mw 7.3, 2014, Papanoa earthquake (Mexico) reveals the aseismic behavior of the Guerrero seismic gap

    Gualandi, A.; Perfettini, H.; Radiguet, M.; Cotte, N.; Kostoglodov, V.


    We present the study of 21 continuous GPS (cGPS) stations in Mexico during the time interval that goes from 1 October 2013 to 31 December 2014. The area under investigation produced a slow slip event (SSE) that started in February 2014 and lasted at least until December 2014. Superimposed on this transient signal, the Mw7.3 Papanoa earthquake struck the region on 18 April 2014 and affected multiple stations. Thanks to an independent component analysis (ICA) technique we are able to separate the postseismic deformation associated with this earthquake from the deformation related to the ongoing SSE. We infer the slip distributions associated with the three tectonically related processes: the coseismic and postseismic slip and the SSE. The inferred postseismic slip distribution reduces the amount of slip related to the SSE in the updip portion of the slab. The moment released by the postseismic processes (afterslip and aftershocks) is estimated to be [8.06 ± 0.24] × 1019 Nm, equivalent to [71 ± 4]% of the moment associated with the main shock. More than 88% of the postseismic moment is released aseismically and the afterslip spatially correlates with the Guerrero seismic gap, suggesting that the region is controlled by stable sliding behavior and rate-strengthening frictional properties.

  5. Earthquake damage to underground facilities

    Pratt, H.R.; Hustrulid, W.A. Stephenson, D.E.


    The potential seismic risk for an underground nuclear waste repository will be one of the considerations in evaluating its ultimate location. However, the risk to subsurface facilities cannot be judged by applying intensity ratings derived from the surface effects of an earthquake. A literature review and analysis were performed to document the damage and non-damage due to earthquakes to underground facilities. Damage from earthquakes to tunnels, s, and wells and damage (rock bursts) from mining operations were investigated. Damage from documented nuclear events was also included in the study where applicable. There are very few data on damage in the subsurface due to earthquakes. This fact itself attests to the lessened effect of earthquakes in the subsurface because mines exist in areas where strong earthquakes have done extensive surface damage. More damage is reported in shallow tunnels near the surface than in deep mines. In mines and tunnels, large displacements occur primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures or at the surface entrance to these facilities.Data indicate vertical structures such as wells and shafts are less susceptible to damage than surface facilities. More analysis is required before seismic criteria can be formulated for the siting of a nuclear waste repository.

  6. Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

    Takarada, S.


    The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website ( was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

  7. Three-dimensional attenuation imaging of the Irpinia fault zone (Southern Italy): inferences on the fluid storage and earthquake related processes

    Amoroso, Ortensia; De Landro, Grazia; Russo, Guido; Zollo, Aldo; Garambois, Stephane; Mazzoli, Stefano; Parente, Mariano; Virieux, Jean


    The seismic imaging of crustal wave velocity and attenuation provide useful insights into the possible presence and role of fluids in the volume embedding earthquake causative faults. In particular, they allow constraining the range of rock properties such as porosity, consolidation parameter, type of fluid mixing and relative saturation percentage. Our study is focused on the southern Apennines area that experienced moderate to large earthquakes in the past century, the largest one, the Irpinia MS 6.9 earthquake, occurred on November 23th, 1980. In this study we propose to integrate velocity and attenuation tomographic images for a comprehensive seismic interpretation of the 1980 Irpinia earthquake fault zone that uses well established rock physical laws to retrieve information about porosity and the type of permeating fluids from seismic attributes. We performed an attenuation tomographic inversion, which provided 3-D images of the anelastic attenuation properties in terms of body wave quality factors (Qp and Qs). We analyzed a data set of 4801 t*P and 1833 t*S relative to 670 earthquakes with local magnitude 0.1 ≤ ML ≤ 3.2. We inverted the t* data for Q following a multiscale strategy, progressively increasing the density of grid points describing the attenuation model. The Qp model shows a slight increase of the values with depth, reaching a value of about 1000 in the central part of the model, at depths between 8 and 12 km. The Qs model shows strong lateral variations along a SW-NE section with a major transition occurring in correspondence with the Ms 6.9, 1980 earthquake rupture. Moreover the Qs model well delineates the transition between the Apulian Carbonate platform and the basement at about 7 km depth with an increase of values from 400 to 1000. In order to recover the properties of the host rock volume characterized by a set of micro-parameters (porosity, consolidation parameter, permeating fluid type and percentage of fluid saturation), we

  8. 地震后常见的儿童营养问题及其预防%Prevalence and prevention of common nutritional risks in children after earthquake



    儿童是灾难中营养脆弱的人群.热量—蛋白质营养不良、缺铁性贫血及微量元素缺乏是灾后儿童最常出现的营养问题.在灾后紧急救助和恢复阶段,应结合灾区儿童的营养状况,采取有效的营养干预措施,防止这些常见营养性疾病的发生.对于已发生的营养不良性疾病,应给予及时诊断和治疗.%Children have been identified as the most.nutritionally vulnerable group when disaster happens.The most common nutritional risks include protein-energy malnutrition,iron-deficiency anemia,and trace element deficiency in children after earthquake.During the disaster relief,effective nutritional interventions should be performed according to the nutritional conditions of children in the affected area,so as to prevent the common nutritional risks.Timely diagnosis and treatment should be provided for children at a high risk of malnutrition.

  9. Acute stress-related psychological impact in children following devastating natural disaster, the Sikkim earthquake (2011, India

    Rakesh Mondal


    Full Text Available Background: Psychological stress following natural disaster is common. Despite several earthquakes in India, data on evaluation of acute stress among the child victims in the early postdisaster period is scarce. Immediately following a devastating earthquake (6.9 Richter at Sikkim on September, 18 2011, many children attended North Bengal Medical College, the nearest government tertiary care institution, with unusual stress symptoms. Objective: Evaluation of acute stress symptoms in children in the immediate postearthquake period. Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional study done over 4 weeks and includes all the children from 1 to 12 years presenting with unusual physical or behavioral symptoms. Those with major injuries requiring admission were excluded. They were divided into two age groups. For older children (8-12 years the 8-item Children Impact of Event Scale (CIES was used for screening of stress. Unusual symptoms were recorded in younger children (1-8 years as CIES is not validated < 8 years. Result: A total of 84 children (2.66% out of 3154 had stress symptoms. Maximum attendance was noted in first 3 days (65.47% and declined gradually. In children ≥ 8 years, 48.78% had psychological stress, which was statistically significant on CIES scores without any gender predilection. Static posturing (41.86%, sleeplessness (32.55%, anorexia (9.30%, recurrent vomiting (13.95%, excessive crying (13.95%, or night-awakenings (4.65% were found in younger children ( n = 43 and three required admission. Conclusion: This study represent the first Indian data showing statistically significant psychological impact in older children (8-12 years and various forms of physical stress symptoms in young children (1-8 years following earthquake.

  10. Risk Factors for SARS-Related Deaths in 2003, Beijing



    Objective To study the potential risk factors for severe acute respiratory syndromes (SARS)-related deaths in Beijing. Methods Epidemiological data were collected among the confirmed SARS patients officially reported by Beijing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (BCDC), and information was also supplemented by a follow-up case survey. Chi-square test and multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis were performed. Results Old age (over 60 years) was found to be significantly associated with SARS-related deaths in the univariate analysis. Also, history of contacting SARS patients within 2 weeks prior to the onset of illness, health occupation, and inferior hospital ranking as well as longer interval of clinic consulting (longer than 1 day) were the risk factors for SARS-related deaths. Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis found four risk factors for SARS-related deaths. Conclusion Old age (over 60 years) is the major risk factor for SARS-related deaths.Moreover, hospital health workers, the designated hospitals for SARS clinical services and the interval of consulting doctors (less than 1 day) are protective factors for surviving from SARS.

  11. Analysis of self-potential earthquake-related signals recorded in Mexico by using the Fisher Information Measure

    Telesca, L.; Lovallo, M.; Ramirez-Rojas, A.; Angulo-Brown, F.


    The time fluctuations of self-potential data, recorded at the monitoring station Acapulco (Mexico) during 1994-1996 in the seismic area of Guerrero-Oaxaca, are analyzed by means of the Fisher Information Measure (FIM), a nonlinear powerful method to investigate complex dynamics in time series. The time evolution of the FIM shows a clear correlation with the largest earthquakes occurred in the monitored area during the observation period. Seismic precursory patterns in the FIM evolution are also revealed. This work has been performed in the frame of the scientific bilateral agreement CNR/CONACYT.

  12. The earthquakes of 29 July 2003, 12 February 2007, and 17 December 2009 in the region of Cape Saint Vincent (SW Iberia) and their relation with the 1755 Lisbon earthquake

    Pro, C.; Buforn, E.; Bezzeghoud, M.; Udías, A.


    The Cape Saint Vincent region is of major seismological interest for its tectonic complexity and for the occurrence of the great 1755 Lisbon earthquake. No structure capable of generating such a large earthquake has yet been convincingly identified, but all authors agree that there is a possibility of a similar earthquake occurring offshore of the Cape sometime in the future. To shed some light on the region's dynamics, we here examine the mechanism of the three largest earthquakes to have occurred in the last 40 years west of the Cape - 29 July 2003 (Mw = 5.3), 12 February 2007 (Mw = 6.1), and 17 December 2009 (Mw = 5.5). By inversion of the body waves and the kinematic slip distribution, we estimated the three earthquakes to have had similar characteristics (dimensions, maximum slip, stress drop, source time function, focal depth, and rupture velocity), although there were differences in the geometry of the rupture that reflect the great seismotectonic complexity of the zone. The focal mechanisms of the 2003 and 2007 earthquakes were similar, corresponding to thrusting motion, but the 2009 earthquake had a dip-slip motion in a vertical plane. As deduced from the slip distributions, the three shocks show NE-SW rupture planes, with the energy released propagating to the NE, compatible with the regional NW-SE horizontal compression produced by the convergence of the Eurasian and African plates. Applied to the generation of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake, this direction of faulting would correspond to a complex rupture along NE-SW trending thrust faults at the Gorringe Bank, the Horseshoe Scarp, and the Marquis de Pombal Fault, with the rupture propagating to the NE towards the Portuguese coast. Such a model could explain that unusually large and tsunami-generating earthquake.

  13. Elite Athletes experiences with risk related to Cardiac Screening

    Christensen, Jonas Schmidt; Thing, Lone Friis

    Elite Athletes experiences with risks related to Cardiac Screening Jonas Schmidt Christensen1, Lone Friis Thing1 1University of Copenhagen - Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports (NEXS), Cardiac screening of elite athletes are recommended by both the American Heart Association & the European...... is dominated by studies with a clinical medical focus and studies of athlete’s perspectives on cardiac screening are consequently an absence. By using an interpretive sociological perspective (Denzin 2001) and qualitative research done with elite athletes of both gender this paper seeks to explore how elite...... athletes experience risks associated with cardiac screening. To make possible an analysis of how elite athletes come to an understanding of and position themselves in relation to the risk discourse (Lupton 2013) they are met by, the focus is on Foucault’s technologies of the self and a subjectivity...

  14. Fractal Models of Earthquake Dynamics

    Bhattacharya, Pathikrit; Kamal,; Samanta, Debashis


    Our understanding of earthquakes is based on the theory of plate tectonics. Earthquake dynamics is the study of the interactions of plates (solid disjoint parts of the lithosphere) which produce seismic activity. Over the last about fifty years many models have come up which try to simulate seismic activity by mimicking plate plate interactions. The validity of a given model is subject to the compliance of the synthetic seismic activity it produces to the well known empirical laws which describe the statistical features of observed seismic activity. Here we present a review of two such models of earthquake dynamics with main focus on a relatively new model namely The Two Fractal Overlap Model.

  15. Financial Constraints and the Risk-Return Relation

    Tao Wang


    Stock return volatilities are related to firms' financial status. Financially constrained firms are more volatile. Their stock return volatilities react more negatively to lagged return changes than financially unconstrained firms. This strong negative relation between volatilities and lagged returns for financially constrained firms are not affected by industry differences or firm leverage. Moreover, the debt-equity ratio is not as important as financial constraints for the firm-level risk-r...

  16. CKD increases the risk of age-related macular degeneration.

    Liew, Gerald; Mitchell, Paul; Wong, Tien Yin; Iyengar, Sudha K; Wang, Jie Jin


    Age-related macular degeneration is the leading cause of irreversible blindness in the United States and often coexists with chronic kidney disease. Both conditions share common genetic and environmental risk factors. A total of 1183 participants aged 54+ were examined in the population-based, prospective cohort Blue Mountains Eye Study (Australia) to determine if chronic kidney disease increases the risk of age-related macular degeneration. Moderate chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate macular degeneration was 3.9% in participants with no/mild chronic kidney disease (35 of 897) and 17.5% in those with moderate chronic kidney disease (50 of 286). After adjusting for age, sex, cigarette smoking, hypertension, complement factor H polymorphism, and other risk factors, persons with moderate chronic kidney disease were 3 times more likely to develop early age-related macular degeneration than persons with no/mild chronic kidney disease (odds ratio = 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.8 to 5.7, P macular degeneration (odds ratio = 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 2.8, P chronic kidney disease have a higher risk of early age-related macular degeneration, suggesting the possibility of shared pathophysiologic mechanisms between the two conditions.

  17. Hydrochemistry of the Hot Springs in Western Sichuan Province Related to the Wenchuan M S 8.0 Earthquake

    Chen, Zhi; Zhou, Xiaocheng; Yi, Li; Liu, Lei; Xie, Chao; Cui, Yueju; Li, Ying


    Hydrogeochemistry of 32 hot springs in the western Sichuan Province after the Wenchuan M S 8.0 earthquake was investigated by analyzing the concentrations of cation and anion and the isotopic compositions of hydrogen and oxygen. The water samples of the hot springs were collected four times from June 2008 to April 2010. Hydrogeochemical data indicated the water samples can be classified into 9 chemical types. Values of δD and δ 18O indicated that the spring waters were mainly derived from meteoric precipitation and affected by water-rock interaction and mixture of deep fluids. Concentrations of K+and SO4 − of the samples from the Kangding district exhibited evident increases before the Wenchuan earthquake, indicating more supplement of deep fluids under the increase of tectonic stress. The chemical and isotopic variations of the water samples from the area closer to the epicenter area can be attributed to variation of regional stress field when the aftershock activities became weak. PMID:24892106

  18. Holocene activities of the Taigu fault zone,Shanxi Province, and their relations with the 1303 Hongdong M=8 earthquake

    谢新生; 江娃利; 王焕贞; 冯西英


    The Taigu fault zone is one of the major 12 active boundary faults of the Shanxi fault-depression system, locatedon the eastern boundary of the Jinzhong basin. As the latest investigation indicated, the fault zone had dislocatedgully terrace of the f1rst order, forming fault-scarp in front of the loess mesa. It has been discovered in many placesin ground surface and trenches that Holocene deposits were dislocated. The latest activity was the 1303 Hongdongearthquake M=8, the fault appeared as right-lateral strike-slip with normal faulting. During that earthquake, theTaigu fault together with the Mianshan western-side fault on the Lingshi upheaval and the Huoshan pediment faulton the eastern boundary of the Linfen basin was being active, forming a surface rupture belt of 160 km in length.Moreover, the Taigu fault were active in the mid-stage of Holocene and near 7 700 aB.P. From these we learnt that,in Shanxi fault-depression system, the run-through activity of two boundary faults of depression-basins mightgenerate great earthquake with M=8.


    ChengWanzheng; YangYongling


    Deformation measurements such as short-range leveling, short-baseline, continuous cross-fault strain measurement are carried out at different intervals from 1982 to 2001. All these measurement sites are built across the boundary tectonic belts of Yunnan-Sichuan block. On the basis of these deformation data, the annual deformation rates at all sites are calculated and their change curves with time are plotted respectively. With these calculated results, we analyze the vertical and horizontal movements of tectonic belts of Yunnan-Sichuan block, and the relationship to grouped strong earthquakes occurred in the block are discussed as well. These results show that the tectonic activities in the western and southeastern Yunnan are intensive. Along some eastern boundary belts: from Qujiang, Xiaojiang fault belts in the south of Yunnan to Xianshuihe fault belts in northwestern Sichuan, present annual rate of horizontal deformation decreases. Along Xianshuihe, Xiaojiang and Longmenshan fault belts the rates of vertical deformation change are small, but the vertical deformation change rates along Anninghe and Zemuhe faul tbelts are comparatively large. The comprehensive analysis shows that grouped strong earthquakes will occur probably when the deformation rate changes sharply. Thus we think that sharp changes of deformation rates may be one of the seismic precursors.


    Cheng Wanzheng; Yang Yongling


    Deformation measurements such as short-range leveling, short-baseline, continuous cross-fault strain measurement are carried out at different intervals from 1982 to 2001. All these measurement sites are built across the boundary tectonic belts of Yunnan-Sichuan block. On the basis of these deformation data, the annual deformation rates at all sites are calculated and their change curves with time are plotted respectively. With these calculated results, we analyze the vertical and horizontal movements of tectonic belts of Yunnan-Sichuan block, and the relationship to grouped strong earthquakes occurred in the block are discussed as well. These results show that the tectonic activities in the western and southeastern Yunnan are intensive. Along some eastern boundary belts: from Qujiang, Xiaojiang fault belts in the south of Yunnan to Xianshuihe fault belts in northwestern Sichuan, present annual rate of horizontal deformation decreases. Along Xianshuihe, Xiaojiang and Longmenshan fault belts the rates of vertical deformation change are small, but the vertical deformation change rates along Anninghe and Zemuhe fault belts are comparatively large. The comprehensive analysis shows that grouped strong earthquakes will occur probably when the deformation rate changes sharply. Thus we think that sharp changes of deformation rates may be one of the seismic precursors.

  1. The Effects of a Short-term Cognitive Behavioral Group Intervention on Bam Earthquake Related PTSD Symptoms in Adolescents

    Fatemeh Naderi


    Full Text Available "n "n "nObjective :Post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD may be the first reaction after disasters. Many studies have shown the efficacy of cognitive- behavioral therapy in treatment of post traumatic stress disorder. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of group CBT in adolescent survivors of a large scale disaster (Bam earthquake. "n "nMethods: In a controlled trial, we evaluated the efficacy of a short term method of group cognitive-behavioral therapy in adolescent survivors of Bam earthquake who had PTSD symptoms and compared it with a control group. The adolescents who had severe PTSD or other psychiatric disorders that needed pharmacological interventions were excluded. We evaluated PTSD symptoms using Post traumatic Stress Scale (PSS pre and post intervention and compared them with a control group. "n "nResults: 100 adolescents were included in the study and 15 were excluded during the intervention. The mean age of the participants was 14.6±2.1 years. The mean score of total PTSD symptoms and the symptoms of avoidance was reduced after interventions, and was statistically significant. The mean change of re-experience and hyper arousal symptoms of PTSD were not significant. "n "nConclusion: Psychological debriefing and group cognitive behavioral therapy may be effective in reducing some of the PTSD symptoms.

  2. Distance to retail stores and risk of being homebound among older adults in a city severely affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake.

    Hirai, Hiroshi; Kondo, Naoki; Sasaki, Ryohei; Iwamuro, Shinya; Masuno, Kanako; Ohtsuka, Rika; Miura, Hisayuki; Sakata, Kiyomi


    after the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, inactivity and the homebound status of older victims in affected areas have been a serious public health concern owing to the victims' prolonged existence as evacuees in mountainous areas. to evaluate the association between distances to retail stores and risks of being homebound. secondary analysis of cross-sectional interview survey data with a geographical information analysis. Rikuzentakata, Iwate, a municipality seriously damaged by the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. all Rikuzentakata residents aged 65 or older except for those living in temporary housing (n = 2,327). we calculated road distances between each residential address and retail stores, hawker sites and shopping bus stops, accounting for the extra load caused by walking on slopes. The prevalence ratio of being homebound adjusted for age, source of income and morbidity by road distance was estimated using Poisson regression with a generalised estimating equation. those living at distances of 1,200 m or more were 1.78 (95% confidence intervals, 1.03-3.08) times more likely to be homebound (going out only every 4 or more days a week) among men and 1.85 (1.13-3.02) among women, compared with those residing in places shopping bus stops. The distances were reduced by new hawker and shopping bus services, but the improvements varied greatly across the districts. access to daily needs is essential to prevent homebound status. Post-disaster community diagnosis in terms of the built environment is important for strategic community restoration. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society.

  3. Long-term impact of earthquakes on sleep quality.

    Daniela Tempesta

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: We investigated the impact of the 6.3 magnitude 2009 L'Aquila (Italy earthquake on standardized self-report measures of sleep quality (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, PSQI and frequency of disruptive nocturnal behaviours (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index-Addendum, PSQI-A two years after the natural disaster. METHODS: Self-reported sleep quality was assessed in 665 L'Aquila citizens exposed to the earthquake compared with a different sample (n = 754 of L'Aquila citizens tested 24 months before the earthquake. In addition, sleep quality and disruptive nocturnal behaviours (DNB of people exposed to the traumatic experience were compared with people that in the same period lived in different areas ranging between 40 and 115 km from the earthquake epicenter (n = 3574. RESULTS: The comparison between L'Aquila citizens before and after the earthquake showed a significant deterioration of sleep quality after the exposure to the trauma. In addition, two years after the earthquake L'Aquila citizens showed the highest PSQI scores and the highest incidence of DNB compared to subjects living in the surroundings. Interestingly, above-the-threshold PSQI scores were found in the participants living within 70 km from the epicenter, while trauma-related DNBs were found in people living in a range of 40 km. Multiple regressions confirmed that proximity to the epicenter is predictive of sleep disturbances and DNB, also suggesting a possible mediating effect of depression on PSQI scores. CONCLUSIONS: The psychological effects of an earthquake may be much more pervasive and long-lasting of its building destruction, lasting for years and involving a much larger population. A reduced sleep quality and an increased frequency of DNB after two years may be a risk factor for the development of depression and posttraumatic stress disorder.

  4. Mental health problems among the survivors in the hard-hit areas of the Yushu earthquake.

    Zhen Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: On April 14, 2010, an earthquake registering 7.1 on the Richter scale shook Qinghai Province in southwest China. The earthquake caused numerous casualties and much damage. The epicenter, Yushu County, suffered the most severe damage. As a part of the psychological relief work, the present study evaluated the mental health statuses of the people affected and identified the mental disorder risk factors related to earthquakes. METHODS: Five hundred and five earthquake survivors living in Yushu County were investigated 3-4 months after the earthquake. Participant demographic data including gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, educational level, and religious beliefs were collected. The Earthquake-Specific Trauma Exposure Indicators assessed the intensity of exposure to trauma during the earthquake. The PTSD Checklist-Civilian version (PCL-C and the Hopkins Symptoms Checklist-25 (HSCL-25 assessed the symptoms and prevalence rates of probable Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD as well as anxiety and depression, respectively. The Perceived Social Support Scale (PSSS evaluated subjective social support. RESULTS: The prevalence rates of probable PTSD, anxiety, and depression were 33.7%, 43.8% and 38.6%, respectively. Approximately one fifth of participants suffered from all three conditions. Individuals who were female, felt initial fear during the earthquake, and had less social support were the most likely to have poor mental health. CONCLUSIONS: The present study revealed that there are serious mental problems among the hard-hit survivors of the Yushu earthquake. Survivors at high risk for mental disorders should be specifically considered. The present study provides useful information for rebuilding and relief work.

  5. Geoethics and decision science issues in Japan's disaster management system: case study in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami

    Sugimoto, Megumi


    The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its tsunami killed 18,508 people, including the missing (National Police Agency report as of April 2014) and raise the Level 7 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station in Japan. The problems revealed can be viewed as due to a combination of risk-management, risk-communication, and geoethics issues. Japan's preparations for earthquakes and tsunamis are based on the magnitude of the anticipated earthquake for each region. The government organization coordinating the estimation of anticipated earthquakes is the "Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion" (HERP), which is under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). Japan's disaster mitigation system is depicted schematically as consisting of three layers: seismology, civil engineering, and disaster mitigation planning. This research explains students in geoscience should study geoethics as part of their education related Tohoku earthquake and the Level 7 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station. Only when they become practicing professionals, they will be faced with real geoethical dilemmas. A crisis such as the 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident, will force many geoscientists to suddenly confront previously unanticipated geoethics and risk-communication issues. One hopes that previous training will help them to make appropriate decisions under stress. We name it "decision science".

  6. Explanatory risk factors in the relations between schizotypy and indicators of suicide risk.

    Jahn, Danielle R; DeVylder, Jordan E; Hilimire, Matthew R


    Schizotypy has been linked to suicide risk, but it is not known whether established suicide-related risk factors mediate this relation. The aim of this study was to assess the mediating effects of depressive symptoms, social anxiety, self-esteem, and intimate disclosure in peer relationships in the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. This aim was tested in 590 young adults using a nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. After inclusion of the mediators, interpersonal schizotypy was no longer directly associated with either suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. Depression and self-esteem mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation. No variables mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and lifetime suicide attempts, and there were no significant direct relations when mediators were included. Schizotypy appears to be a distal risk factor for suicidal behavior; assessing depressive symptoms and self-esteem may provide more proximal information about suicide risk, and may be targets for mitigating suicide risk in individuals with schizotypy.

  7. Tectonic controls on earthquake size distribution and seismicity rate: slab buoyancy and slab bending

    Nishikawa, T.; Ide, S.


    There are clear variations in maximum earthquake magnitude among Earth's subduction zones. These variations have been studied extensively and attributed to differences in tectonic properties in subduction zones, such as relative plate velocity and subducting plate age [Ruff and Kanamori, 1980]. In addition to maximum earthquake magnitude, the seismicity of medium to large earthquakes also differs among subduction zones, such as the b-value (i.e., the slope of the earthquake size distribution) and the frequency of seismic events. However, the casual relationship between the seismicity of medium to large earthquakes and subduction zone tectonics has been unclear. Here we divide Earth's subduction zones into over 100 study regions following Ide [2013] and estimate b-values and the background seismicity rate—the frequency of seismic events excluding aftershocks—for subduction zones worldwide using the maximum likelihood method [Utsu, 1965; Aki, 1965] and the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model [Ogata, 1988]. We demonstrate that the b-value varies as a function of subducting plate age and trench depth, and that the background seismicity rate is related to the degree of slab bending at the trench. Large earthquakes tend to occur relatively frequently (lower b-values) in shallower subduction zones with younger slabs, and more earthquakes occur in subduction zones with deeper trench and steeper dip angle. These results suggest that slab buoyancy, which depends on subducting plate age, controls the earthquake size distribution, and that intra-slab faults due to slab bending, which increase with the steepness of the slab dip angle, have influence on the frequency of seismic events, because they produce heterogeneity in plate coupling and efficiently inject fluid to elevate pore fluid pressure on the plate interface. This study reveals tectonic factors that control earthquake size distribution and seismicity rate, and these relationships between seismicity and

  8. Practical approaches to the assessment of work-related risks.

    Kogi, K


    The control of work-related risks calls for practical improvements in job content and the working environment. For assessment of risks, it is essential to resort to the most practical methods in the local context. Important common methods are examination of the process, equipment and organisation of work, walk-through surveys, evaluation of risk factors in the working environment, inquiries and questionnaires as well as monitoring of various health indicators. Biological tests and other health indicators can thus only be regarded as components of overall occupational health-risk assessment strategy, with their advantages, disadvantages and limitations. Important are the validity of biological tests and the ethical aspects related to their use, such as confidentiality of data and the individual worker's informed consent, preference being given to noninvasive-methods. Occupational health services should thus play a positive role by providing practical advice, training and information for participatory risk assessment keeping in view such an overall strategy that facilitates immediate preventive action. Biological monitoring should be applied when the additional guidance it provides on preventive action is essential. Proposals to use biological monitoring must emphasise this justification aspect.

  9. Spontaneous ipsilateral subconjunctival hemorrhage and the related risk factors

    Nikolas Ziakas


    Full Text Available The aim of the report is to assess the risk factors among patients with spontaneous ipsilateral subconjunctival hemorrhage (SCH who presented to the outpatients’ department in General Hospital of Veria, Veria, Greece. Thirty-five patients with SCH participated in the study. A thorough case history was taken and a full ophthalmic examination was performed to identify the risk factors related to the clinical finding. The common hematological parameters associated with the coagulation profile of each patient were evaluated. With the exception of SCH, the ophthalmic examination was normal in all patients. Identified risk factors include history of systemic hypertension (21 patients [60%], mean systolic value: 170 mmHg±15 mmHg, strenuous exercise [19 patients (54%] and minor ocular trauma [5 patients (14%]. Other risk factors [each in 2 patients (6%] included: diabetes mellitus, smoking, severe cough, straining at stool, and weight lifting. Seven patients (20% were under medication related to bleeding diathesis. The values of the blood coagulation parameters were within the normal limits in all patients. Twenty-nine patients (83% had elevated blood pressure during the ophthalmological examination. Our study provides documentation regarding the potential risk factors associated with SCH. It is interesting to observe the high incidence of hypertension among the patients with SCH. Therefore, it is highly recommended that the blood pressure be checked in all patients with SCH and that the patients be referred to a general practitioner for further management if indicated.

  10. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro


    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes.

  11. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro


    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes.

  12. Pregnancy-related characteristics and breast cancer risk.

    Brasky, Theodore M; Li, Yanli; Jaworowicz, David J; Potischman, Nancy; Ambrosone, Christine B; Hutson, Alan D; Nie, Jing; Shields, Peter G; Trevisan, Maurizio; Rudra, Carole B; Edge, Stephen B; Freudenheim, Jo L


    Breast tissues undergo extensive physiologic changes during pregnancy, which may affect breast carcinogenesis. Gestational hypertension, preeclampsia/eclampsia, gestational diabetes, pregnancy weight gain, and nausea and vomiting (N&V) during pregnancy may be indicative of altered hormonal and metabolic profiles and could impact breast cancer risk. Here, we examined associations between these characteristics of a woman's pregnancy and her subsequent breast cancer risk. Participants were parous women that were recruited to a population-based case-control study (Western New York Exposures and Breast Cancer Study). Cases (n = 960), aged 35-79 years, had incident, primary, histologically confirmed breast cancer. Controls (n = 1,852) were randomly selected from motor vehicle records (pregnancy experiences. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). N&V during pregnancy was inversely associated with breast cancer risk. Relative to those who never experienced N&V, ever experiencing N&V was associated with decreased risk (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.84) as were increased N&V severity (p trend pregnancies (p trend pregnancies. Associations were stronger for more recent pregnancies (breast cancer subtype including estrogen receptor and HER2 expression status. Other pregnancy characteristics examined were not associated with risk. We observed strong inverse associations between pregnancy N&V and breast cancer risk. Replication of these findings and exploration of underlying mechanisms could provide important insight into breast cancer etiology and prevention.

  13. Risk Factors Associated with Peritoneal-Dialysis-Related Peritonitis

    Julia Kerschbaum


    Full Text Available Background. Peritonitis represents a major complication of peritoneal dialysis (PD. The aim of this paper was to systematically collect data on patient-related risk factors for PD-associated peritonitis, to analyze the methodological quality of these studies, and to summarize published evidence on the particular risk factors. Methods. Studies were identified by searches of Pubmed (1990–2012 and assessed for methodological quality by using a modified form of the STROBE criteria. Results. Thirty-five methodologically acceptable studies were identified. The following nonmodifiable risk factors were considered valid and were associated with an increased risk of peritonitis: ethnicity, female gender, chronic lung disease, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, antihepatitis C virus antibody positivity, diabetes mellitus, lupus nephritis or glomerulonephritis as underlying renal disease, and no residual renal function. We also identified the following modifiable, valid risk factors for peritonitis: malnutrition, overweight, smoking, immunosuppression, no use of oral active vitamin D, psychosocial factors, low socioeconomic status, PD against patient’s choice, and haemodialysis as former modality. Discussion. Modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors analyzed in this paper might serve as a basis to improve patient care in peritoneal dialysis.

  14. Road Damage Following Earthquake


    Ground shaking triggered liquefaction in a subsurface layer of water-saturated sand, producing differential lateral and vertical movement in a overlying carapace of unliquified sand and slit, which moved from right to left towards the Pajaro River. This mode of ground failure, termed lateral spreading, is a principal cause of liquefaction-related earthquake damage caused by the Oct. 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake. Sand and soil grains have faces that can cause friction as they roll and slide against each other, or even cause sticking and form small voids between grains. This complex behavior can cause soil to behave like a liquid under certain conditions such as earthquakes or when powders are handled in industrial processes. Mechanics of Granular Materials (MGM) experiments aboard the Space Shuttle use the microgravity of space to simulate this behavior under conditons that carnot be achieved in laboratory tests on Earth. MGM is shedding light on the behavior of fine-grain materials under low effective stresses. Applications include earthquake engineering, granular flow technologies (such as powder feed systems for pharmaceuticals and fertilizers), and terrestrial and planetary geology. Nine MGM specimens have flown on two Space Shuttle flights. Another three are scheduled to fly on STS-107. The principal investigator is Stein Sture of the University of Colorado at Boulder. Credit: S.D. Ellen, U.S. Geological Survey

  15. Turning the rumor of the May 11, 2011, earthquake prediction in Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    Concetta Nostro


    Full Text Available A devastating earthquake was predicted to hit Rome on May 11, 2011. This prediction was never officially released, but it grew on the internet and was amplified by the media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions and related them to earthquakes. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, there was a planetary alignment, and this fed the credibility of the earthquake prediction. During the months preceding May 2011, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV was overwhelmed with requests for information about this prediction, by the inhabitants of Rome and by tourists. Given the echo of this earthquake prediction, on May 11, 2011, the INGV decided to organize an Open Day at its headquarters in Rome, to inform the public about Italian seismicity and earthquake physics. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, to talk with journalists about this prediction, and to present the Open Day. During this ‘Day’, 13 new videos were also posted on our YouTube/INGVterremoti channel to explain earthquake processes and hazards, and to provide periodic updates on seismicity in Italy from the seismicity monitoring room. On May 11, 2011, the INGV headquarters was peacefully invaded by over 3,000 visitors, from 10:00 am to 9:00 pm: families, students with and without teachers, civil protection groups, and many journalists. This initiative that was built up in a few weeks has had very large feedback, and was a great opportunity to talk with journalists and people about earthquake prediction, and more in general about the seismic risk in Italy.

  16. Relative risks of low birthweight in Scotland 1980-2.

    Pickering, R.M.


    Routinely collected data for 187,000 Scottish singleton livebirths in 1980-2 were used to relate the risk of birthweight below 2500 g, 2000 g, 1500 g, and 1000 g to sex of infant and nine maternal factors. Maternal height was a major predictor of birthweight below 2500g but was less important in predicting birthweight in the lower intervals. A history of prenatal death and spontaneous abortion was important for all four intervals and was associated with most extreme risks for birthweight belo...

  17. From a physical approach to earthquake prediction, towards long and short term warnings ahead of large earthquakes

    Stefansson, R.; Bonafede, M.


    For 20 years the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) was a test site for multinational earthquake prediction research, partly bridging the gap between laboratory tests samples, and the huge transform zones of the Earth. The approach was to explore the physics of processes leading up to large earthquakes. The book Advances in Earthquake Prediction, Research and Risk Mitigation, by R. Stefansson (2011), published by Springer/PRAXIS, and an article in the August issue of the BSSA by Stefansson, M. Bonafede and G. Gudmundsson (2011) contain a good overview of the findings, and more references, as well as examples of partially successful long and short term warnings based on such an approach. Significant findings are: Earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago left scars in the crust, expressed in volumes of heterogeneity that demonstrate the size of their faults. Rheology and stress heterogeneity within these volumes are significantly variable in time and space. Crustal processes in and near such faults may be observed by microearthquake information decades before the sudden onset of a new large earthquake. High pressure fluids of mantle origin may in response to strain, especially near plate boundaries, migrate upward into the brittle/elastic crust to play a significant role in modifying crustal conditions on a long and short term. Preparatory processes of various earthquakes can not be expected to be the same. We learn about an impending earthquake by observing long term preparatory processes at the fault, finding a constitutive relationship that governs the processes, and then extrapolating that relationship into near space and future. This is a deterministic approach in earthquake prediction research. Such extrapolations contain many uncertainties. However the long time pattern of observations of the pre-earthquake fault process will help us to put probability constraints on our extrapolations and our warnings. The approach described is different from the usual

  18. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete


    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools. PMID:28257103

  19. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide-An Overview.

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete


    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  20. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    Trine Madsen


    Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.


    Jaime Valenzuela Márquez


    Full Text Available Se transcriben dos informes sobre el terremoto que devastó Chile central y otras regiones cercanas en 1730. Se trata de documentos originales, relativos a las ciudades de Santiago y Concepción, y el puerto de Valparaíso. Fueron redactados por testigos presenciales del evento, jesuitas locales que escriben a su superior en Roma para dar cuenta del suceso y de sus consecuencias catastróficas. El acento de la información está puesto sobre los antecedentes divinos que rodearon el evento, las características que tuvieron el sismo y el maremoto que, en el caso de Concepción, remecieron cuerpos, casas y conciencias, así como las condiciones materiales en que quedaron estas ciudades.Two reports have been transcribed on the earthquake that devastated central Chile and other nearby regions in 1730. These original documents relating to the cities of Santiago and Concepcion, and the port of Valparaiso, were written by eyewitnesses of the event, local Jesuits who wrote to their superior in Rome to give an account of the event and its catastrophic consequences. The focus of the information is placed on the divine history surrounding the event, the characteristics that had the earthquake and tsunami that, in the case of Concepción, rocked bodies, houses and conscientes; as well as the material conditions in which these cities were.

  2. Self-esteem and hope mediate the relations between social support and post-traumatic stress disorder and growth in adolescents following the Ya'an earthquake.

    Zhou, Xiao; Wu, Xinchun; Zhen, Rui


    Although posttraumatic stress disorders (PTSD) and posttraumatic growth (PTG) can co-exist, and several theories suggest that social support, self-esteem, and hope can predict both PTSD and PTG, no study to date has examined the combined role of social support, self-esteem, and hope in PTSD and PTG. The present study aimed to simultaneously examine the mediating roles of self-esteem and hope in the relations between social support and PTSD, and between social support and PTG. This study included 397 adolescents living in Lushan County, China, who were affected by the Ya'an earthquake. The participants completed the self-report questionnaires at two and a half years after the earthquake. Structural equation models were built to examine the roles of social support, self-esteem, and hope in PTSD and PTG. Social support directly and negatively predicted PTSD and positively predicted PTG. Moreover, social support negatively predicted PTSD via self-esteem, and positively predicted PTG via hope. In addition, social support positively predicted PTG through multiple mediating paths from self-esteem to hope. PTSD and PTG had different predictive paths. Specifically, social support reduced PTSD through enhanced self-esteem and promoted PTG through hope, or through the path from self-esteem to hope.

  3. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel


    as a powerful tool for the evaluation of potential health consequences of planned measures. It is often discussed whether HIA is not just another term or form of risk assessment and what is their relation. Our aim is to discuss similarities and differences between the two methods so as to clarify......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...... standardised scientific methods to characterise the probability and magnitude of harm caused by a hazard, preferably in a quantitative manner. In turn, HIA is a process to assess future impacts of recent proposals and is dominated by qualitative evaluation. It makes a projection for a future scenario rather...

  4. Båth's law and its relation to the tectonic environment: A case study for earthquakes in Mexico

    Rodríguez-Pérez, Q.; Zúñiga, F. R.


    We studied 66 mainshocks and their largest aftershocks in the Mexican subduction zone and in the Gulf of California with magnitudes in the range of 5.2 energy ratios and energy partitioning of the mainshock-largest aftershock sequences, we analyze the physics of the mainshock-largest aftershock relationship (Båth's law). The partitioning of energy during a mainshock-aftershock sequence shows that about 96-97% of the energy dissipated in a sequence is associated with the mainshock and the rest is due to aftershocks. Our results for radiated seismic energy and energy-to-moment ratio are partially in agreement with worldwide studies supporting the observation of mechanism dependence of radiated seismic energy. The statistical tests indicate that the only significant difference is for shallow thrust and strike-slip events for these parameters. The statistical comparison of stress drop of shallow thrust versus that of inslab events shows a strongly significant difference with a confidence better than 99%. The comparison of stress drop of shallow thrust events with that of strike-slip events, also indicates a strongly significant difference. We see no dependence of stress drop with magnitude, which is strong evidence of earthquake self-similarity. We do not observe a systematic depth dependence of stress drop. The results also reveal differences in the earthquake rupture among the events. The magnitude difference between the mainshock and the largest aftershock for inslab events is larger than interplate and strike-slip events suggesting focal mechanism dependence of Båth's law. For the case of this parameter, only that for inslab and strike-slip events present a significant difference with 95% confidence.

  5. Relative relocation of earthquakes without a predefined velocity model: an example from a peculiar seismic cluster on Katla volcano's south-flank (Iceland)

    Sgattoni, Giulia; Einarsson, Páll; Lucchi, Federico


    Relative relocation methods are commonly used to precisely relocate earthquake clusters consisting of similar waveforms. Repeating waveforms are often recorded at volcanoes, where, however, the crust structure is expected to contain strong heterogeneities and therefore the 1D velocity model assumption that is made in most location strategies is not likely to describe reality. A peculiar cluster of repeating low-frequency seismic events was recorded on the south flank of Katla volcano (Iceland) from 2011. As the hypocentres are located at the rim of the glacier, the seismicity may be due to volcanic or glacial processes. Information on the size and shape of the cluster may help constraining the source process. The extreme similarity of waveforms points to a very small spatial distribution of hypocentres. In order to extract meaningful information about size and shape of the cluster, we minimize uncertainty by optimizing the cross-correlation measurements and relative-relocation process. With a synthetic test w...

  6. Post-traumatic stress disorder and depression prevalence and associated risk factors among local disaster relief and reconstruction workers fourteen months after the Great East Japan Earthquake: a cross-sectional study.

    Sakuma, Atsushi; Takahashi, Yoko; Ueda, Ikki; Sato, Hirotoshi; Katsura, Masahiro; Abe, Mikika; Nagao, Ayami; Suzuki, Yuriko; Kakizaki, Masako; Tsuji, Ichiro; Matsuoka, Hiroo; Matsumoto, Kazunori


    Many local workers have been involved in rescue and reconstruction duties since the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) on March 11, 2011. These workers continuously confront diverse stressors as both survivors and relief and reconstruction workers. However, little is known about the psychological sequelae among these workers. Thus, we assessed the prevalence of and personal/workplace risk factors for probable post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), probable depression, and high general psychological distress in this population. Participants (N = 1294; overall response rate, 82.9%) were workers (firefighters, n = 327; local municipality workers, n = 610; hospital medical workers, n = 357) in coastal areas of Miyagi prefecture. The study was cross-sectional and conducted 14 months after the GEJE using a self-administered questionnaire which included the PTSD Checklist-Specific Version, the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, and the K6 scale. Significant risk factors from bivariate analysis, such as displacement, dead or missing family member(s), near-death experience, disaster related work, lack of communication, and lack of rest were considered potential factors in probable PTSD, probable depression, and high general psychological distress, and were entered into the multivariable logistic regression model. The prevalence of probable PTSD, probable depression, and high general psychological distress was higher among municipality (6.6%, 15.9%, and 14.9%, respectively) and medical (6.6%, 14.3%, and 14.5%, respectively) workers than among firefighters (1.6%, 3.8%, and 2.6%, respectively). Lack of rest was associated with increased risk of PTSD and depression in municipality and medical workers; lack of communication was linked to increased PTSD risk in medical workers and depression in municipality and medical workers; and involvement in disaster-related work was associated with increased PTSD and depression risk in municipality workers. The present results

  7. Relative Risk Appraisal, the September 11 Attacks, and Terrorism-Related Fears

    Marshall, Randall D.; Bryant, Richard A.; Amsel, Lawrence; Suh, Eun Jung; Cook, Joan M.; Neria, Yuval


    There are now replicated findings that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms related to the September 11, 2001, attacks occurred in large numbers of persons who did not fit the traditional definition of exposure to a traumatic event. These data are not explained by traditional epidemiologic “bull’s eye” disaster models, which assume the psychological effects are narrowly, geographically circumscribed, or by existing models of PTSD onset. In this article, the authors develop a researchable model to explain these and other terrorism-related phenomena by synthesizing research and concepts from the cognitive science, risk appraisal, traumatic stress, and anxiety disorders literatures. They propose the new term relative risk appraisal to capture the psychological function that is the missing link between the event and subjective response in these and other terrorism-related studies to date. Relative risk appraisal highlights the core notion from cognitive science that human perception is an active, multidimensional process, such that for unpredictable societal threats, proximity to the event is only one of several factors that influence behavioral responses. Addressing distortions in relative risk appraisal effectively could reduce individual and societal vulnerability to a wide range of adverse economic and ethnopolitical consequences to terrorist attacks. The authors present ways in which these concepts and related techniques can be helpful in treating persons with September 11– or terrorism-related distress or psychopathology. PMID:17516775

  8. Risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina

    María Eugenia Nano


    Full Text Available PURPOSES: To assess the risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina using a case-control study. METHODS: Surveys were used for subjects' antioxidant intake, age/gender, race, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes (and type of treatment, smoking, sunlight exposure, red meat consumption, fish consumption, presence of age-related macular degeneration and family history of age-related macular degeneration. Main effects models for logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used to analyze the results. RESULTS: There were 175 cases and 175 controls with a mean age of 75.4 years and 75.5 years, respectively, of whom 236 (67.4% were female. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration, 159 (45.4% had age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 154 (44.0% in their right eyes, and 138 (39.4% in both eyes. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 47.8% had the dry type, 40.3% had the wet type, and the type was unknown for 11.9%. The comparable figures for right eyes were: 51.9%, 34.4%, and 13.7%, respectively. The main effects model was dominated by higher sunlight exposure (OR [odds ratio]: 3.3 and a family history of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 4.3. Other factors included hypertension (OR: 2.1, smoking (OR: 2.2, and being of the Mestizo race, which lowered the risk of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 0.40. Red meat/fish consumption, body mass index, and iris color did not have an effect. Higher age was associated with progression to more severe age-related macular degeneration. CONCLUSION: Sunlight exposure, family history of age-related macular degeneration, and an older age were the significant risk factors. There may be other variables, as the risk was not explained very well by the existing factors. A larger sample may produce different and better results.

  9. Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

    Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.


    We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings.

  10. Analysis of related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

    Qi-Song Yu; He-Chao Huang; Feng Ding; Xin-Bo Wang


    Objective:To explore the related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy to provide a theoretical evidence for effectively preventing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula.Methods:A total of 100 patients who were admitted in our hospital from January, 2012 to January, 2015 and had performed pancreaticoduodenectomy were included in the study. The related risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula were collected for single factor and Logistic multi-factor analysis.Results:Among the included patients, 16 had pancreatic fistula, and the total occurrence rate was 16% (16/100). The single-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, preoperative bilirubin, pancreatic texture, pancreatic duct diameter, intraoperative amount of bleeding, postoperative hemoglobin, and application of somatostatin after operation were the risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (P<0.05). The multi-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin were the dependent risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (OR=4.162, 6.104, 5.613, 4.034,P<0.05).Conclusions:The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely associated with the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin; therefore, effective measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence of pancreatic fistula according to the patients’own conditions.

  11. Workplace strategies for the control of work-related risks.

    Kogi, K


    The prevention of work-related diseases and disorders, including those of neuropsychobehavioral nature, calls for integrated action to improve both job content and the working environment. Recent international labor standards have highlighted the importance of a good safety and health management system that ensures the assessment of risks and the appropriate control of these risks. Internationally, programs to cope with work-related risks place an increasing emphasis on participatory management of preventive measures, practical methods of risk assessment, and immediate improvements with the support of action-oriented training and information. Psychosocial factors, work performance, and job content need special attention. Workplace strategies must be developed by active participation of employers and workers, with their informed consent. These strategies and linked training activities should build on local practice and achievements rather than administrative models and be geared to the real local needs. In coping with the neurobehavioral effects, international sharing of positive experiences is useful especially with respect to: (i) providing information on potential neurobehavioral effects including labeling, safety datasheets, and precautions; (ii) providing practical advice about locally achieved improvements; (iii) providing action-oriented training; and (iv) creating opportunities for participatory workplace improvements.

  12. Relative deprivation and risk factors for obesity in Canadian adolescents.

    Elgar, Frank J; Xie, Annie; Pförtner, Timo-Kolja; White, James; Pickett, Kate E


    Research on socioeconomic differences in overweight and obesity and on the ecological association between income inequality and obesity prevalence suggests that relative deprivation may contribute to lifestyle risk factors for obesity independently of absolute affluence. We tested this hypothesis using data on 25,980 adolescents (11-15 years) in the 2010 Canadian Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study. The Yitzhaki index of relative deprivation was applied to the HBSC Family Affluence Scale, an index of common material assets, with more affluent schoolmates representing the comparative reference group. Regression analysis tested the associations between relative deprivation and four obesity risk factors (skipping breakfasts, physical activity, and healthful and unhealthful food choices) plus dietary restraint. Relative deprivation uniquely related to skipping breakfasts, less physical activity, fewer healthful food choices (e.g., fruits, vegetables, whole grain breads), and a lower likelihood of dieting to lose weight. Consistent with Runciman's (1966) theory of relative deprivation and with psychosocial interpretations of the health consequences of income inequality, the results indicate that having mostly better off schoolmates can contribute to poorer health behaviours independently of school-level affluence and subjective social status. We discuss the implications of these findings for understanding the social origins of obesity and targeting health interventions. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Increased relative risk of myelodysplastic syndrome in atomic bomb survivors

    Oda, Kenji [Hiroshima City Hospital (Japan); Kimura, Akiro; Matsuo, Tatsuki; Tomonaga, Masao; Kodama, Kazunori; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko


    It was investigated what blood disorders except leukemia increased the relative risk with dose dependency in atomic bomb survivors. Subjects were 217 patients of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, who had blood disorders except leukemia and died between 1950 and 1990. Their medical records were analyzed and their diagnoses were reevaluated. Sixteen cases were diagnosed as the aplastic anemia and 12 as the myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). In the aplastic anemia, there was no correlation between the exposure dose and the mortality. In MDS, the excess relative risk (ERR)/bone marrow exposure dose of 1 Sv was very high (13.0). These results supports the hypothesis that MDS would be broken out by the clonal abnormality of the hematopoietic stem cell and radiation exposure could cause the appearance of the abnormal stem cell clone. (K.H.)

  14. Update on procedure-related risks for prenatal diagnosis techniques

    Tabor, Ann; Alfirevic, Zarko


    Introduction: As a consequence of the introduction of effective screening methods, the number of invasive prenatal diagnostic procedures is steadily declining. The aim of this review is to summarize the risks related to these procedures. Material and Methods: Review of the literature. Results: Data...... from randomised controlled trials as well as from systematic reviews and a large national registry study are consistent with a procedure-related miscarriage rate of 0.5-1.0% for amniocentesis as well as for chorionic villus sampling (CVS). In single-center studies performance may be remarkably good due...... not be performed before 15 + 0 weeks' gestation. CVS on the other hand should not be performed before 10 weeks' gestation due to a possible increase in risk of limb reduction defects. Discussion: Experienced operators have a higher success rate and a lower complication rate. The decreasing number of prenatal...

  15. Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province, China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, May 12, 2008): Risk assessment, mitigation strategy, and lessons learned

    Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.


    Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2. 04 ?? 10 7 m 3 of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3. 15 ?? 10 8 m 3, potentially inundating 8. 92 km 2 of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1. 3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3. 35, 3. 84, 4. 22, and 4. 65 km 2 of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4. 6, 5. 1, 5. 7, and 6. 2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although

  16. Comparison of two large earthquakes: the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake and the 2011 East Japan Earthquake.

    Otani, Yuki; Ando, Takayuki; Atobe, Kaori; Haiden, Akina; Kao, Sheng-Yuan; Saito, Kohei; Shimanuki, Marie; Yoshimoto, Norifumi; Fukunaga, Koichi


    Between August 15th and 19th, 2011, eight 5th-year medical students from the Keio University School of Medicine had the opportunity to visit the Peking University School of Medicine and hold a discussion session titled "What is the most effective way to educate people for survival in an acute disaster situation (before the mental health care stage)?" During the session, we discussed the following six points: basic information regarding the Sichuan Earthquake and the East Japan Earthquake, differences in preparedness for earthquakes, government actions, acceptance of medical rescue teams, earthquake-induced secondary effects, and media restrictions. Although comparison of the two earthquakes was not simple, we concluded that three major points should be emphasized to facilitate the most effective course of disaster planning and action. First, all relevant agencies should formulate emergency plans and should supply information regarding the emergency to the general public and health professionals on a normal basis. Second, each citizen should be educated and trained in how to minimize the risks from earthquake-induced secondary effects. Finally, the central government should establish a single headquarters responsible for command, control, and coordination during a natural disaster emergency and should centralize all powers in this single authority. We hope this discussion may be of some use in future natural disasters in China, Japan, and worldwide.

  17. Association between earthquake events and cholera outbreaks: a cross-country 15-year longitudinal analysis.

    Sumner, Steven A; Turner, Elizabeth L; Thielman, Nathan M


    Large earthquakes can cause population displacement, critical sanitation infrastructure damage, and increased threats to water resources, potentially predisposing populations to waterborne disease epidemics such as cholera. Problem The risk of cholera outbreaks after earthquake disasters remains uncertain. A cross-country analysis of World Health Organization (WHO) cholera data that would contribute to this discussion has yet to be published. A cross-country longitudinal analysis was conducted among 63 low- and middle-income countries from 1995-2009. The association between earthquake disasters of various effect sizes and a relative spike in cholera rates for a given country was assessed utilizing fixed-effects logistic regression and adjusting for gross domestic product per capita, water and sanitation level, flooding events, percent urbanization, and under-five child mortality. Also, the association between large earthquakes and cholera rate increases of various degrees was assessed. Forty-eight of the 63 countries had at least one year with reported cholera infections during the 15-year study period. Thirty-six of these 48 countries had at least one earthquake disaster. In adjusted analyses, country-years with ≥10,000 persons affected by an earthquake had 2.26 times increased odds (95 CI, 0.89-5.72, P = .08) of having a greater than average cholera rate that year compared to country-years having cholera infections appeared to weaken as higher levels of cholera rate increases were tested. A trend of increased risk of greater than average cholera rates when more people were affected by an earthquake in a country-year was noted. However these findings did not reach statistical significance at traditional levels and may be due to chance. Frequent large-scale cholera outbreaks after earthquake disasters appeared to be relatively uncommon.

  18. Medical complications associated with earthquakes.

    Bartels, Susan A; VanRooyen, Michael J


    Major earthquakes are some of the most devastating natural disasters. The epidemiology of earthquake-related injuries and mortality is unique for these disasters. Because earthquakes frequently affect populous urban areas with poor structural standards, they often result in high death rates and mass casualties with many traumatic injuries. These injuries are highly mechanical and often multisystem, requiring intensive curative medical and surgical care at a time when the local and regional medical response capacities have been at least partly disrupted. Many patients surviving blunt and penetrating trauma and crush injuries have subsequent complications that lead to additional morbidity and mortality. Here, we review and summarise earthquake-induced injuries and medical complications affecting major organ systems.

  19. Estimating relative risks for common outcome using PROC NLP.

    Yu, Binbing; Wang, Zhuoqiao


    In cross-sectional or cohort studies with binary outcomes, it is biologically interpretable and of interest to estimate the relative risk or prevalence ratio, especially when the response rates are not rare. Several methods have been used to estimate the relative risk, among which the log-binomial models yield the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the parameters. Because of restrictions on the parameter space, the log-binomial models often run into convergence problems. Some remedies, e.g., the Poisson and Cox regressions, have been proposed. However, these methods may give out-of-bound predicted response probabilities. In this paper, a new computation method using the SAS Nonlinear Programming (NLP) procedure is proposed to find the MLEs. The proposed NLP method was compared to the COPY method, a modified method to fit the log-binomial model. Issues in the implementation are discussed. For illustration, both methods were applied to data on the prevalence of microalbuminuria (micro-protein leakage into urine) for kidney disease patients from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial. The sample SAS macro for calculating relative risk is provided in the appendix.

  20. Tien Shan Geohazards Database: Earthquakes and landslides

    Havenith, H. B.; Strom, A.; Torgoev, I.; Torgoev, A.; Lamair, L.; Ischuk, A.; Abdrakhmatov, K.


    - and even totally unknown for most giant landslides: the time information. Thus, dating rockslides and any large mass movement is a crucial factor in order to better constrain related hazards. Second, we highlight the role of coupled hazards in the Tien Shan - inside the mountain range the largest disasters were caused by earthquake-triggered landslides and massive earth flows. Therefore, it is of prime importance for these mountain regions to complement single hazard assessment by coupled hazard scenarios. On the basis of these scenarios, risk evaluations may then be completed considering direct impacts on artificial dams, hydropower schemes, mining and road infrastructure as well as remote effects from possible dam breaches and mobilisation of mining and nuclear waste storages. Basic hazard and risk components are partly analysed in this paper and partly in a companion paper 'Tien Shan geohazards database: Landslide susceptibility and impacts'.

  1. Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

    Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo


    that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample...... of the Danish population (1.89 million people) including information on all permanent addresses linked with geographical information on all roads and house numbers in Denmark. Schizophrenia in cohort members (10,755 people) was identified by linkage with the Danish Psychiatric Central Register. RESULTS...

  2. Modelling the genetic risk in age-related macular degeneration.

    Felix Grassmann

    Full Text Available Late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD is a common sight-threatening disease of the central retina affecting approximately 1 in 30 Caucasians. Besides age and smoking, genetic variants from several gene loci have reproducibly been associated with this condition and likely explain a large proportion of disease. Here, we developed a genetic risk score (GRS for AMD based on 13 risk variants from eight gene loci. The model exhibited good discriminative accuracy, area-under-curve (AUC of the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.820, which was confirmed in a cross-validation approach. Noteworthy, younger AMD patients aged below 75 had a significantly higher mean GRS (1.87, 95% CI: 1.69-2.05 than patients aged 75 and above (1.45, 95% CI: 1.36-1.54. Based on five equally sized GRS intervals, we present a risk classification with a relative AMD risk of 64.0 (95% CI: 14.11-1131.96 for individuals in the highest category (GRS 3.44-5.18, 0.5% of the general population compared to subjects with the most common genetic background (GRS -0.05-1.70, 40.2% of general population. The highest GRS category identifies AMD patients with a sensitivity of 7.9% and a specificity of 99.9% when compared to the four lower categories. Modeling a general population around 85 years of age, 87.4% of individuals in the highest GRS category would be expected to develop AMD by that age. In contrast, only 2.2% of individuals in the two lowest GRS categories which represent almost 50% of the general population are expected to manifest AMD. Our findings underscore the large proportion of AMD cases explained by genetics particularly for younger AMD patients. The five-category risk classification could be useful for therapeutic stratification or for diagnostic testing purposes once preventive treatment is available.

  3. Relation of anthropometric variables to coronary artery disease risk factors

    Virendra C Patil


    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Anthropometric variables and their relation to conventional coronary artery disease (CAD risk factors in railway employees have been inadequately studied in India. This cross-sectional survey was carried out in the Solapur division of the Central railway in the year 2004, to assess the anthropometric variables in railway employees and their relation to conventional CAD risk factors. Materials and Methods: A total of 995 railway employees, with 872 males and 123 females participated in this cross-sectional study. All subjects underwent anthropometric measurements, fasting lipid profile, and blood sugar level. Various anthropometric indices were calculated for body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR, and abdominal volume index (AVI. Statistical analysis was done by EPI Info 6 statistical software. Results: Compared to all other obesity indices, WHtR was most prevalent in both genders. High WHtR was present in 699 (80.16% males and 103 (83.73% females. Age ≥45 years, high systolic BP, high diastolic BP, low HDL, high triglyceride, and diabetes mellitus were positively correlated with high BMI, high WC, high WHR, high WHtR, and high AVI. High BMI, high WC, high WHR, high WHtR, and high AVI were negatively associated with physical inactivity. Conclusions: Over all, anthropometric variables in both genders were significantly deranged in subjects with coronary risk factors. Compared to all other anthropometric variables, WHtR was statistically significantly associated with a majority of coronary artery risk factors. Hence we recommend inclusion of WHtR as a parameter of obesity to predict coronary artery disease risk factor along with WC, WHR, and BMI in epidemiologic studies.

  4. A rapid method for post-earthquake fire risk assessment in urban planning on earthquake resistance and disaster prevention%城市抗震防灾规划中次生火灾风险快速评估方法

    陈志芬; 蔺昊; 邹亮; 朱思诚


    地震次生火灾风险评估是城市抗震防灾规划的重要内容之一.由于引起地震次生火灾的因素较多,因此,需要综合多因素进行地震次生火灾风险评估.从致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性、环境因素三个方面研究地震次生火灾风险的评估方法,引入分类地块的概念,建立了致灾因子危险性评估的模型,以火灾荷载和人口密度作为财产损失和人员伤亡的衡量指标,评估承灾体易损性,并借助GIS的分析手段,发展了一套在抗震防灾规划中快速评估地震次生火灾风险的方法.案例研究的结果表明,该方法的评估结果能更全面地反映城市地震次生火灾风险的分布特征.%Post-earthquake secondary fire risk assessment is one of the important content in urban planning on earthquake resistance and disaster prevention. Integrated method is required to assess the post-earthquake fire risk for the reason that fire risks are affected by many factors, which can be classified into hazard, hazard-affected bodies and environment. In this paper, a rapid method was built to assess the post-earthquake fire risk based on GIS analysis. The method includes the statistics method for hazard risk assessment, matrix method for calculating the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies and the correction of environmental influence. The provided case study show good performance of this method for the urban planning on earthquake resistance and disaster prevention for a wide range of cities.

  5. The 2012 MW5.6 earthquake in the vicinity of the city of Sofia

    Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Aleksandrova, Irena; Dimitrova, Liliya; Popova, Iliana; Raykova, Plamena


    The territory of Bulgaria represents a typical example of high seismic risk area in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula. The neotectonic movements on the Balkan Peninsula were controlled by extensional collapse of the Late Alpin orogen, and were influenced by extension behind the Aegean arc and by the complicated vertical and horizontal movements in the Pannonian region. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia seismic zone that is the most populated (more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. Seismicity in the zone is related mainly to the marginal neotectonic faults of Sofia graben. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=IX-X MSK64. The 1858 earthquake caused heavy destruction in the town of Sofia and the appearance of thermal springs in the western part of the town. After a quiescence of about 50 years a strong event with M=6.5 occurred in 1905 near the western marginal part of the Sofia zone. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK64). The earthquake caused a lot of damages in the town and changed the capacity of the thermal mineral springs in Sofia and the surrounding villages. The earthquake was felt in an area of 50000 km2 and followed by aftershocks, which lasted more than one year. Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 hit Sofia seismic zone, on May 22nd, 2012, at 25 km south west of the city of Sofia. This shallow earthquake was largely felt in the region and up to Greece, FYROM, Serbia and Romania. No severe injuries have been reported so far, though

  6. Nanotechnology, risk, and oversight: learning lessons from related emerging technologies.

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Priest, Susanna


    Emerging technologies are defined by their novelty and thus are accompanied by significant uncertainty in determining appropriate ways to manage risks associated with them. Yet, there is a body of prior knowledge about risk management and oversight policy for other technologies that have already permeated society. Here, we describe two ways in which prospective oversight policy analysis for emerging technologies can draw upon these past experiences. One involves comparing specific products that have already been marketed to similar products of the emerging technology (cognate-product approach). The other treats the emerging technology as a body of products and methods and relates it to another technological field that has already emerged and penetrated markets (whole-technology approach). In this article, we describe our work using these approaches to inform risk and oversight policy for nanotechnology and its products. We draw parallels between biotechnology and nanotechnology as whole fields of development and also between genetically engineered organisms in the food supply and agricultural products of nanotechnology. Through these comparisons, we find that both approaches to historical learning have value and present lessons that could be applied to nanotechnology. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia.

    Ismail, B; Teng, I L; Muhammad Samudi, Y


    In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board, Malaysia, and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y(-1) permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77×10(-3) risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19×10(-3) risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

  8. The impact of ocular trauma during the Nepal earthquake in 2015.

    Pradhan, E; Limbu, B; Thakali, S; Jain, N S; Gurung, R; Ruit, S


    Nepal was struck by a massive earthquake on the 25th April 2015 and major aftershock on the 12th of May 2015, resulting in widespread devastation with a death toll in the thousands. The burden of ocular trauma resulting from the recent earthquakes in Nepal has not been described thus far. The aim of this study was to determine the types of ocular injuries sustained in the earthquake in Nepal and its management in Tilganga Institute of Ophthalmology (TIO) in Gaushala, Kathmandu. This is a hospital-based retrospective study of patients presenting to TIO following repeated earthquake. Variables that were recorded included patients' presenting symptoms and time to presentation, visual acuities at presentation and at follow-up, diagnosis of ocular injury and surgery performed. There were 59 cases of earthquake victims visiting TIO, Gaushala, Kathmandu from April 2015 to July 2015, with 64 affected eyes due to 5 cases of bilateral involvement. The majority of patients were from the district Sindhupalchowk (14 cases, 23.7%), which was the epicenter of the main earthquake. The average duration between the earthquake and presentation was 13 · 9 days (range 1-120 days). Closed globe injury was most frequent (23 cases), followed by open globe injuries (8 cases). While 24 patients (38%) initially presented with a visual acuity earthquake-related ocular trauma will facilitate planning for service provision in the event of a future earthquake in Nepal, or in countries, which are similarly at risk of having natural disasters.

  9. Evaluation of Risk Factors Related to Recidivism Among Sentenced Males

    Sinem Yıldız


    Full Text Available Risk assessment is taking the place of dangerousness in recent criminal research. Detection of static and dynamic risk factors related and/or interacting to recidivism in accordance with personality characteristics and crime types may help crime prevention strategies to improve. Out of all participants 35% (n=41 are sentenced for manslaughter/physical injury, 35% (n=41 sexual crime and 30% (n=35 theft. The mean age of the participants is 33.81 (sd=9-12 years. During the interview, a questionnaire which is prepared by the researcher by reviewing the literature, Symptom Checklist Short Form, aggression inventory was used. Interviews are conducted face to face by the researcher at the relevant correctional facilities with the permissions of Ministry of Justice and ethical committee. Recidivism is found related to having a period far away from nuclear family before age 18, criminal and drag-alcohol abusing friends, anti-social behaviors; abusing illegal drags, displaying disciplinary problems in prison and during military service. Discussion: Results are evaluated under demographics, relationships in family and close friends, childhood abuse by leaning on current literature. Key words: prevention and control, crime, risk assessment

  10. An approach to estimating radiological risk of offsite release from a design basis earthquake for the Process Experimental Pilot Plant (PREPP)

    Lucero, V.; Meale, B.M.; Reny, D.A.; Brown, A.N.


    In compliance with Department of Energy (DOE) Order 6430.1A, a seismic analysis was performed on DOE's Process Experimental Pilot Plant (PREPP), a facility for processing low-level and transuranic (TRU) waste. Because no hazard curves were available for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), DOE guidelines were used to estimate the frequency for the specified design-basis earthquake (DBE). A dynamic structural analysis of the building was performed, using the DBE parameters, followed by a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For the PRA, a functional organization of the facility equipment was effected so that top events for a representative event tree model could be determined. Building response spectra (calculated from the structural analysis), in conjunction with generic fragility data, were used to generate fragility curves for the PREPP equipment. Using these curves, failure probabilities for each top event were calculated. These probabilities were integrated into the event tree model, and accident sequences and respective probabilities were calculated through quantification. By combining the sequences failure probabilities with a transport analysis of the estimated airborne source term from a DBE, onsite and offsite consequences were calculated. The results of the comprehensive analysis substantiated the ability of the PREPP facility to withstand a DBE with negligible consequence (i.e., estimated release was within personnel and environmental dose guidelines). 57 refs., 19 figs., 20 tabs.

  11. Aerobic exercise reduces biomarkers related to cardiovascular risk among cleaners

    Korshøj, Mette; Ravn, Marie Højbjerg; Holtermann, Andreas;


    PURPOSE: Blue-collar workers have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, elevated levels of biomarkers related to risk of cardiovascular disease, such as high-sensitive C-reactive protein, have been observed among blue-collar workers. The objective was to examine whether....... The reference group (n = 59) received lectures, and the aerobic exercise group (n = 57) performed worksite aerobic exercise (30 min twice a week). Levels of biomarkers (high-sensitive C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, cholesterol, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglyceride) were collected...... at baseline and after 4 months. A repeated-measure, multi-adjusted, mixed-model intention-to-treat analysis was applied to compare between-group differences. The study was registered as ISRCTN86682076. RESULTS: Significant (p high...

  12. Solar activity and earthquake

    Yuan, J.


    Prolonged astronomical observations have discovered that the Sun, which is the nearest star to the Earth, is not calm and serene. On the solar surface, there are often windstorms, electrical lights, and sometimes large flame eruptions; and there are regularly black spots in patches which are also active. The Sun not only disperses light and heat, but also throws out large quantities of currents of charged particles to be scattered in space and to reach the Earth, sometimes, which are called by some solar winds. These activities in the Sun can induce many physical phenomena on earth, including magnetic storms, polar light, sudden disruption or attenuation of medium- and short-wave radio, and many atmospheric changes. Some scientists believe they are perhaps also related to the occurrence of earthquakes. This paper explains these solar activities and their possible relationship to earthquakes.

  13. Hurricane Sandy and earthquakes



    Submit for consideration the connection between formation of a hurricane Sandy and earthquakes. As a rule, weather anomalies precede and accompany earthquakes. The hurricane Sandy emerged 2 days prior to strong earthquakes that occurred in the area. And the trajectory of the hurricane Sandy matched the epicenter of the earthquakes. Possibility of early prediction of natural disasters will minimize the moral and material damage.

  14. Fractal analysis of the ULF geomagnetic data obtained at Izu Peninsula, Japan in relation to the nearby earthquake swarm of June–August 2000

    K. Gotoh


    Full Text Available In our recent papers we applied fractal methods to extract the earthquake precursory signatures from scaling characteristics of the ULF geomagnetic data, obtained in a seismic active region of Guam Island during the large earthquake of 8 August 1993. We found specific dynamics of their fractal characteristics (spectral exponents and fractal dimensions before the earthquake: appearance of the flicker-noise signatures and increase of the time series fractal dimension. Here we analyze ULF geomagnetic data obtained in a seismic active region of Izu Peninsula, Japan during a swarm of the strong nearby earthquakes of June–August 2000 and compare the results obtained in both regions. We apply the same methodology of data processing using the FFT procedure, Higuchi method and Burlaga-Klein approach to calculate the spectral exponents and fractal dimensions of the ULF time series. We found the common features and specific peculiarities in the behavior of fractal characteristics of the ULF time series before Izu and Guam earthquakes. As a common feature, we obtained the same increase of the ULF time series fractal dimension before the earthquakes, and as specific peculiarity – this increase appears to be sharp for Izu earthquake in comparison with gradual increase of the ULF time series fractal dimension for Guam earthquake. The results obtained in both regions are discussed on the basis of the SOC (self-organized criticality concept taking into account the differences in the depths of the earthquake focuses. On the basis of the peculiarities revealed, we advance methodology for extraction of the earthquake precursory signatures. As an adjacent step, we suggest the combined analysis of the ULF time series in the parametric space polarization ratio – fractal dimension. We reason also upon the advantage of the multifractal approach with respect to the mono-fractal analysis for study of the earthquake preparation dynamics.

  15. MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L.; Muranen, Taru A.; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Liu, Jianjun; Hall, Per; Irwanto, Astrid; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Czene, Kamila; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Johnson, Nichola; Gibson, Lorna; Aitken, Zoe; Hopper, John L.; Tsimiklis, Helen; Bui, Minh; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Southey, Melissa C.; Apicella, Carmel; Stone, Jennifer; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel A.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Chanock, Stephen J.; Hunter, David J.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Reed, Malcolm W. R.; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Broeks, Annegien; Veer, Laura J. V. a. n't.; Hogervorst, Frans B.; Fasching, Peter A.; Schrauder, Michael G.; Ekici, Arif B.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Bojesen, Stig E.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Nielsen, Sune F.; Flyger, Henrik; Benitez, Javier; Zamora, Pilar M.; Perez, Jose I. A.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Dunning, Alison M.; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Couch, Fergus J.; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E.; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Mulot, Claire; Marme, Frederick; Burwinkel, Barbara; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J.; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A. E. M.; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J.; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E.; Ambrosone, Christine B.; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Barile, Monica; Mariani, Paolo; Hooning, Maartje J.; Martens, John W. M.; Collée, J. Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Giles, Graham G.; McLean, Catriona; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S.; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Mannermaa, Arto; Hamann, Ute; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Easton, Douglas F.; Nevanlinna, Heli


    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94–0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01–1.05) located in the 3′ UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects. PMID:25390939

  16. MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

    Sofia Khan

    Full Text Available Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in microRNAs (miRNA or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS. Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC. Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI: 0.88-0.96, rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99, rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05 located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

  17. MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L; Muranen, Taru A; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K; Liu, Jianjun; Hall, Per; Irwanto, Astrid; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Czene, Kamila; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Johnson, Nichola; Gibson, Lorna; Aitken, Zoe; Hopper, John L; Tsimiklis, Helen; Bui, Minh; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F; Southey, Melissa C; Apicella, Carmel; Stone, Jennifer; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel A; van der Luijt, Rob B; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Chanock, Stephen J; Hunter, David J; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Reed, Malcolm W R; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Broeks, Annegien; Van't Veer, Laura J; Hogervorst, Frans B; Fasching, Peter A; Schrauder, Michael G; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Bojesen, Stig E; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Flyger, Henrik; Benitez, Javier; Zamora, Pilar M; Perez, Jose I A; Haiman, Christopher A; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Pharoah, Paul D P; Dunning, Alison M; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Couch, Fergus J; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Mulot, Claire; Marme, Frederick; Burwinkel, Barbara; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Sawyer, Elinor J; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J; Kristensen, Vessela N; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E; Ambrosone, Christine B; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Barile, Monica; Mariani, Paolo; Hooning, Maartje J; Martens, John W M; Collée, J Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Giles, Graham G; McLean, Catriona; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Mannermaa, Arto; Hamann, Ute; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Easton, Douglas F; Nevanlinna, Heli


    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05) located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

  18. Numerical Simulation of Stress evolution and earthquake sequence of the Tibetan Plateau

    Dong, Peiyu; Hu, Caibo; Shi, Yaolin


    The India-Eurasia's collision produces N-S compression and results in large thrust fault in the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. Differential eastern flow of the lower crust of the plateau leads to large strike-slip faults and normal faults within the plateau. From 1904 to 2014, more than 30 earthquakes of Mw > 6.5 occurred sequentially in this distinctive tectonic environment. How did the stresses evolve during the last 110 years, how did the earthquakes interact with each other? Can this knowledge help us to forecast the future seismic hazards? In this essay, we tried to simulate the evolution of the stress field and the earthquake sequence in the Tibetan plateau within the last 110 years with a 2-D finite element model. Given an initial state of stress, the boundary condition was constrained by the present-day GPS observation, which was assumed as a constant rate during the 110 years. We calculated stress evolution year by year, and earthquake would occur if stress exceed the crustal strength. Stress changes due to each large earthquake in the sequence was calculated and contributed to the stress evolution. A key issue is the choice of initial stress state of the modeling, which is actually unknown. Usually, in the study of earthquake triggering, people assume the initial stress is zero, and only calculate the stress changes by large earthquakes - the Coulomb failure stress changes (Δ CFS). To some extent, this simplified method is a powerful tool because it can reveal which fault or which part of a fault becomes more risky or safer relatively. Nonetheless, it has not utilized all information available to us. The earthquake sequence reveals, though far from complete, some information about the stress state in the region. If the entire region is close to a self-organized critical or subcritical state, earthquake stress drop provides an estimate of lower limit of initial state. For locations no earthquakes occurred during the period, initial stress has to be

  19. Events per variable for risk differences and relative risks using pseudo-observations

    Hansen, Stefan Nygaard; Andersen, Per Kragh; Parner, Erik Thorlund


    been computed, can be fitted using standard generalized estimating equation software. Regression models can however yield problematic results if the number of covariates is large in relation to the number of events observed. Guidelines of events per variable are often used in practice. These rules...... of thumb for the number of events per variable have primarily been established based on simulation studies for the logistic regression model and Cox regression model. In this paper we conduct a simulation study to examine the small sample behavior of the pseudo-observation method to estimate risk...... differences and relative risks for right-censored data. We investigate how coverage probabilities and relative bias of the pseudo-observation estimator interact with sample size, number of variables and average number of events per variable....

  20. Anomalous decrease in relatively large shocks and increase in the p and b values preceding the April 16, 2016, M7.3 earthquake in Kumamoto, Japan

    Nanjo, K. Z.; Yoshida, A.


    The 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes in Kyushu, Japan, started with a magnitude ( M) 6.5 quake on April 14 on the Hinagu fault zone (FZ), followed by active seismicity including an M6.4 quake. Eventually, an M7.3 quake occurred on April 16 on the Futagawa FZ. We investigated if any sign indicative of the M7.3 quake could be found in the space-time changes in seismicity after the M6.5 quake. As a quality control, we determined in advance the threshold magnitude, above which all earthquakes are completely recorded. We then showed that the occurrence rate of relatively large ( M ≥ 3) earthquakes significantly decreased 1 day before the M7.3 quake. Significance of this decrease was evaluated by one standard deviation of sampled changes in the rate of occurrence. We next confirmed that seismicity with M ≥ 3 was well modeled by the Omori-Utsu law with p 1.5 ± 0.3, which indicates that the temporal decay of seismicity was significantly faster than a typical decay with p = 1. The larger p value was obtained when we used data of the longer time period in the analysis. This significance was confirmed by a bootstrapping approach. Our detailed analysis shows that the large p value was caused by the rapid decay of the seismicity in the northern area around the Futagawa FZ. Application of the slope (the b value) of the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution to the spatiotemporal change in the seismicity revealed that the b value in the northern area increased significantly, the increase being Δ b = 0.3-0.5. Significance was verified by a statistical test of Δ b and a test using bootstrapping errors. Based on our findings, combined with the results obtained by a stress inversion analysis performed by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, we suggested that stress near the Futagawa FZ had reduced just prior to the occurrence of the M7.3 quake. We proposed, with some other observations, that a reduction in stress might have been

  1. Large earthquakes and creeping faults

    Harris, Ruth A.


    Faults are ubiquitous throughout the Earth's crust. The majority are silent for decades to centuries, until they suddenly rupture and produce earthquakes. With a focus on shallow continental active-tectonic regions, this paper reviews a subset of faults that have a different behavior. These unusual faults slowly creep for long periods of time and produce many small earthquakes. The presence of fault creep and the related microseismicity helps illuminate faults that might not otherwise be located in fine detail, but there is also the question of how creeping faults contribute to seismic hazard. It appears that well-recorded creeping fault earthquakes of up to magnitude 6.6 that have occurred in shallow continental regions produce similar fault-surface rupture areas and similar peak ground shaking as their locked fault counterparts of the same earthquake magnitude. The behavior of much larger earthquakes on shallow creeping continental faults is less well known, because there is a dearth of comprehensive observations. Computational simulations provide an opportunity to fill the gaps in our understanding, particularly of the dynamic processes that occur during large earthquake rupture and arrest.

  2. ­Dynamic interactions between the October 28th 2012 Haida Gwaii and January 5th 2013 Craig earthquakes and other faults in Southeast Alaska

    Walter, J. I.; Kao, H.; Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Hobbs, T. E.; Dotray, P.; Newman, A. V.; Mulder, T.


    The Mw 7.8 (28 October 2012) Haida Gwaii earthquake and the Mw 7.5 (5 January 2013) Craig, Alaska earthquake occurred just 400 km and 68 days apart from each other. The short duration and distance between the events poses the question of whether these two events are related. We combine existing seismic data from permanent networks in Alaska and Canada, including temporary aftershock deployments (both on land and ocean-bottom sensors) installed in the Haida Gwaii islands, to search for precursory activity prior to each of the events. In order to improve the catalog completeness, we utilize a matched-filter technique to identify potential missing earthquakes before and after each mainshock. This technique utilizes existing cataloged waveforms as templates to identify repeating or nearby earthquakes with high cross-correlations. We examine the seismic activity prior to and following each event and determine whether any dynamic or delayed triggering of earthquakes or tremor occurs regionally due to these earthquakes. We find small earthquakes on the Fairweather Fault, near Glacier Bay, directly triggered in the minutes after the Haida Gwaii event. In addition, preliminary evidence suggests the Haida Gwaii earthquake triggered some seismicity in the rupture region of the Craig earthquake over the ~2 month period of time between the mainshocks. We plan to assess whether the later-occurring Craig earthquake triggered any increase in aftershock activity within the Haida Gwaii rupture region. The static and dynamic transmission of stresses from large earthquakes has important implications for transient fault zone loading in areas adjacent to those initial rupture zones. This study should shed some light on large earthquake interactions at various distance scales and future seismic risks across Alaska and western Canada.

  3. Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size-frequency statistics

    Ide, Satoshi; Yabe, Suguru; Tanaka, Yoshiyuki


    The possibility that tidal stress can trigger earthquakes is long debated. In particular, a clear causal relationship between small earthquakes and the phase of tidal stress is elusive. However, tectonic tremors deep within subduction zones are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with tremor rate increasing at an exponential rate with rising tidal stress. Thus, slow deformation and the possibility of earthquakes at subduction plate boundaries may be enhanced during periods of large tidal stress. Here we calculate the tidal stress history, and specifically the amplitude of tidal stress, on a fault plane in the two weeks before large earthquakes globally, based on data from the global, Japanese, and Californian earthquake catalogues. We find that very large earthquakes, including the 2004 Sumatran, 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, tend to occur near the time of maximum tidal stress amplitude. This tendency is not obvious for small earthquakes. However, we also find that the fraction of large earthquakes increases (the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases) as the amplitude of tidal shear stress increases. The relationship is also reasonable, considering the well-known relationship between stress and the b-value. This suggests that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. We conclude that large earthquakes are more probable during periods of high tidal stress.

  4. EPA's Response to Health Risks from Dioxin and Related ...

    In 2003, EPA produced an external review draft of a multi-year comprehensive reassessment of dioxin exposure and human health effects. This reassessment, Exposure and Human Health Reassessment of 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-Dioxin (TCDD) and Related Compounds, was submitted to the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) for review in October 2004. In 2006, the NAS expert panel published its review titled Health Risks from Dioxin and Related Compounds: Evaluation of the EPA Reassessment. The NAS expert panel’s Key Findings, as listed in the Public Summary of its review, identified “three areas that require substantial improvement to support a scientifically robust health assessment: •Justification of approaches to dose-response modeling for cancer and non-cancer end points. •Transparency and clarity in selection of key data sets for analysis. •Transparency, thoroughness, and clarity in quantitative uncertainty analysis.” The NAS also recommended that “EPA routinely monitor new scientific information related to TCDD…with the understanding that future revisions should provide a risk assessment based on the current state-of-the-science.” The objective of this project is to respond to NAS coments on dose-response modeling conducted in the EPA Reassessment of the health effects associated with dioxin exposure. In order to do this, we will address the Key Findings of the NAS review in a transparent and open manner.

  5. Reward, attention, and HIV-related risk in HIV+ individuals.

    Anderson, Brian A; Kronemer, Sharif I; Rilee, Jessica J; Sacktor, Ned; Marvel, Cherie L


    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is often contracted through engaging in risky reward-motivated behaviors such as needle sharing and unprotected sex. Understanding the factors that make an individual more vulnerable to succumbing to the temptation to engage in these risky behaviors is important to limiting the spread of HIV. One potential source of this vulnerability concerns the degree to which an individual is able to resist paying attention to irrelevant reward information. In the present study, we examine this possible link by characterizing individual differences in value-based attentional bias in a sample of HIV+ individuals with varying histories of risk-taking behavior. Participants learned associations between experimental stimuli and monetary reward outcome. The degree of attentional bias for these reward-associated stimuli, reflected in their ability to capture attention when presented as task-irrelevant distractors, was then assessed both immediately and six months following reward learning. Value-driven attentional capture was related to substance abuse history and non-planning impulsiveness during the time leading up to contraction of HIV as measured via self-report. These findings suggest a link between the ability to ignore reward-associated information and prior HIV-related risk-taking behavior. Additionally, particular aspects of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders were related to attentional bias, including motor deficits commonly associated with HIV-induced damage to the basal ganglia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Earthquakes in Arkansas and vicinity 1699-2010

    Dart, Richard L.; Ausbrooks, Scott M.


    This map summarizes approximately 300 years of earthquake activity in Arkansas. It is one in a series of similar State earthquake history maps. Work on the Arkansas map was done in collaboration with the Arkansas Geological Survey. The earthquake data plotted on the map are from several sources: the Arkansas Geological Survey, the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, and the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality. In addition to earthquake locations, other materials presented include seismic hazard and isoseismal maps and related text. Earthquakes are a legitimate concern in Arkansas and parts of adjacent states. Arkansas has undergone a number of significant felt earthquakes since 1811. At least two of these events caused property damage: a magnitude 4.7 earthquake in 1931, and a magnitude 4.3 earthquake in 1967. The map shows all historical and instrumentally located earthquakes in Arkansas and vicinity between 1811 and 2010. The largest historic earthquake in the vicinity of the State was an intensity XI event, on December 16, 1811; the first earthquake in the New Madrid sequence. This violent event and the earthquakes that followed caused considerable damage to the then sparsely settled region.

  7. Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times

    J. R. Holliday


    Full Text Available It is well known that earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time. Foreshocks, aftershocks, precursory activation, and quiescence are just some of the patterns recognized by seismologists. Using the Pattern Informatics technique along with relative intensity analysis, we create a scoring method based on time dependent relative operating characteristic diagrams and show that the occurrences of large earthquakes in California correlate with time intervals where fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering. Furthermore, we show that the methods used to obtain these results may be applicable to other parts of the world.

  8. Thermal infrared anomalies of several strong earthquakes.

    Wei, Congxin; Zhang, Yuansheng; Guo, Xiao; Hui, Shaoxing; Qin, Manzhong; Zhang, Ying


    In the history of earthquake thermal infrared research, it is undeniable that before and after strong earthquakes there are significant thermal infrared anomalies which have been interpreted as preseismic precursor in earthquake prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we studied the characteristics of thermal radiation observed before and after the 8 great earthquakes with magnitude up to Ms7.0 by using the satellite infrared remote sensing information. We used new types of data and method to extract the useful anomaly information. Based on the analyses of 8 earthquakes, we got the results as follows. (1) There are significant thermal radiation anomalies before and after earthquakes for all cases. The overall performance of anomalies includes two main stages: expanding first and narrowing later. We easily extracted and identified such seismic anomalies by method of "time-frequency relative power spectrum." (2) There exist evident and different characteristic periods and magnitudes of thermal abnormal radiation for each case. (3) Thermal radiation anomalies are closely related to the geological structure. (4) Thermal radiation has obvious characteristics in abnormal duration, range, and morphology. In summary, we should be sure that earthquake thermal infrared anomalies as useful earthquake precursor can be used in earthquake prediction and forecasting.

  9. Study on financial loss and its adjustment in earthquake insurance

    LIU Ru-shan; WANG Zifa; ZHU Min


    In the paper, we briefly introduce the development and present situation of earthquake insurance in China and foreign countries, and the evaluation of earthquake losses on the basis of seismic risk and structural vulnerability analyses. The emphasis is given to the probabilistic density function of earthquake loss adjustment for a single building under the given insurance policy and the overall variance of estimated earthquake losses aggregated from various locations with keen interest in the insurance industries. The correlation coefficient for the damages among single structures in the United States is also introduced to interpret the risk of loss concentration in the earthquake insurance. The paper provides a scientific basis for adjusting earthquake loss and premium rate, and it also provides a useful reference for the application and expansion of earthquake insurance in China.

  10. Risk of Misinforming and Message Customization in Customer Related Management

    Dimitar Grozdanov Christozov


    Full Text Available This paper discusses applications of the measures of the risk of misinforming and the role of the warranty of misinforming in the context of the informing component of Customer Related Management (CRM issues. This study consists of two parts. Firstly, we propose an approach for customers’ grouping based on their attitude toward assessing product's properties and their expertise on the terminology/domain of the seller’s message describing the product. Also we discuss what the most appropriate personal/group warranty is for each of these group/clusters.

  11. Simulating the market coefficient of relative risk aversion

    Samih Antoine Azar


    Full Text Available In this paper, expected utility, defined by a Taylor series expansion around expected wealth, is maximized. The coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA that is commensurate with a 100% investment in the risky asset is simulated. The following parameters are varied: the riskless return, the market standard deviation, the market stock premium, and the skewness and the kurtosis of the risky return. Both the high extremes and the low extremes are considered. With these figures, the upper bound of the market CRRA is 3.021 and the lower bound is 0.466. Log utility, which corresponds to a CRRA of 1, is not excluded.

  12. Update on procedure-related risks for prenatal diagnosis techniques

    Tabor, Ann; Alfirevic, Zarko


    from randomised controlled trials as well as from systematic reviews and a large national registry study are consistent with a procedure-related miscarriage rate of 0.5-1.0% for amniocentesis as well as for chorionic villus sampling (CVS). In single-center studies performance may be remarkably good due...... to very skilled operators, but these figures cannot be used for general counselling. Amniocentesis performed prior to 15 weeks had a significantly higher miscarriage rate than CVS and mid-trimester amniocentesis, and also increased the risk of talipes equinovarus. Amniocentesis should therefore...

  13. [Resilience, social relations, and pedagogic intervention five years after the earthquake occurred in L'Aquila (Central Italy) in 2009: an action-research in the primary schools].

    Vaccarelli, Alessandro; Ciccozzi, Chiara; Fiorenza, Arianna


    the action-research "Outdoor training and citizenship between children from L'Aquila", carried out from 2014 to 2015 in some schools situated in the municipality of L'Aquila, aimed to answer to the needs emerged in reference to the social and psychological problems among children during the period after the L'Aquila earthquake occurred in 2009. In particular, the article provides documentary evidence about the results regarding the parts related to the study of resilience (cognitive objective) and of social relations (objective tied to the educational intervention), five years after the earthquake. the pedagogical research team, in close cooperation with the Cartography Laboratory of the University of L'Aquila and with the Grupo de Innovación Educativa Areté de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, has worked according to the research-action methodology, collecting secondary data and useful data to check the effectiveness of the educational actions put in place in order to promote resilient behaviours and to activate positive group dynamics. the study has been developed in 4 primary schools of the L'Aquila and has involved 83 children from 8 to 12 years. A control group made by 55 subjects, homogeneous for sex and age, has been identified in the primary schools of Borgorose, a little town near Rieti (Central Italy). data about the abilities of resilience and about the response to the stress have been collected in the first phase of the study with the purpose to outline the initial situation and develop an appropriate educational intervention. The comparison with the control group made by 55 subjects who were not from L'Aquila allowed to check that, 5 years after the disaster, the context of life produces a meaningful discrepancy in terms of responses to the stress and to the ability of resilience, and this fact is definitely negative for children from L'Aquila. On the other hand, data related to social relations allowed to verify how the educational intervention

  14. Earthquake Shaking and Damage to Buildings: Recent evidence for severe ground shaking raises questions about the earthquake resistance of structures.

    Page, R A; Joyner, W B; Blume, J A


    Ground shaking close to the causative fault of an earthquake is more intense than it was previously believed to be. This raises the possibility that large numbers of buildings and other structures are not sufficiently resistant for the intense levels of shaking that can occur close to the fault. Many structures were built before earthquake codes were adopted; others were built according to codes formulated when less was known about the intensity of near-fault shaking. Although many building types are more resistant than conventional design analyses imply, the margin of safety is difficult to quantify. Many modern structures, such as freeways, have not been subjected to and tested by near-fault shaking in major earthquakes (magnitude 7 or greater). Damage patterns in recent moderate-sized earthquakes occurring in or adjacent to urbanized areas (17), however, indicate that many structures, including some modern ones designed to meet earthquake code requirements, cannot withstand the severe shaking that can occur close to a fault. It is necessary to review the ground motion assumed and the methods utilized in the design of important existing structures and, if necessary, to strengthen or modify the use of structures that are found to be weak. New structures situated close to active faults should be designed on the basis of ground motion estimates greater than those used in the past. The ultimate balance between risk of earthquake losses and cost for both remedial strengthening and improved earthquake-resistant construction must be decided by the public. Scientists and engineers must inform the public about earthquake shaking and its effect on structures. The exposure to damage from seismic shaking is steadily increasing because of continuing urbanization and the increasing complexity of lifeline systems, such as power, water, transportation, and communication systems. In the near future we should expect additional painful examples of the damage potential of moderate

  15. Thermal regime from bottom simulating reflectors along the north Ecuador-south Colombia margin: Relation to margin segmentation and great subduction earthquakes

    Marcaillou, Boris; Spence, George; Collot, Jean-Yves; Wang, Kelin


    The north Ecuador-south Colombia (NESC) margin has three transverse morphotectonic segments (the Manglares, Tumaco, and Patia segments), each with different tectonic and structural patterns. Following the 1906 subduction earthquake, the NESC margin has been the site of three megathrust events in 1942, 1958, and 1979 for which the rupture zones abut one another. We first investigated variations in heat flow derived from bottom simulating reflectors (BSR) observed along multichannel seismic lines sampling the three morphotectonic segments. Strong along-strike variations of the BSR-derived heat flow, just landward of the deformation front, suggest that each morphotectonic segment has a specific thermal regime. Finite element thermal models show that these variations are mainly produced by changes in the age and the dip of the oceanic plate and local hydrothermal cooling. We then examined the relationship between seismogenesis and thermal structure along the plate boundary. The updip limits of the 1942 and 1979 seismogenic zones, estimated from the aftershock area and rupture zone, reach the trench, where the temperature at the top of the subducting plate appears to be 50°-60°C. Between these events the seismogenic zone of the 1958 earthquake is restricted to a region landward of a prominent outer basement high where the temperature appears to be 100°-120°C. We propose that on the NESC margin the updip limit of the seismogenic zone is primarily controlled by low-temperature processes except for the 1958 event for which the seismogenic updip limit appears to be related to a structural feature in the upper plate.

  16. Earthquake Loss Estimation Uncertainties

    Frolova, Nina; Bonnin, Jean; Larionov, Valery; Ugarov, Aleksander


    The paper addresses the reliability issues of strong earthquakes loss assessment following strong earthquakes with worldwide Systems' application in emergency mode. Timely and correct action just after an event can result in significant benefits in saving lives. In this case the information about possible damage and expected number of casualties is very critical for taking decision about search, rescue operations and offering humanitarian assistance. Such rough information may be provided by, first of all, global systems, in emergency mode. The experience of earthquakes disasters in different earthquake-prone countries shows that the officials who are in charge of emergency response at national and international levels are often lacking prompt and reliable information on the disaster scope. Uncertainties on the parameters used in the estimation process are numerous and large: knowledge about physical phenomena and uncertainties on the parameters used to describe them; global adequacy of modeling techniques to the actual physical phenomena; actual distribution of population at risk at the very time of the shaking (with respect to immediate threat: buildings or the like); knowledge about the source of shaking, etc. Needless to be a sharp specialist to understand, for example, that the way a given building responds to a given shaking obeys mechanical laws which are poorly known (if not out of the reach of engineers for a large portion of the building stock); if a carefully engineered modern building is approximately predictable, this is far not the case for older buildings which make up the bulk of inhabited buildings. The way population, inside the buildings at the time of shaking, is affected by the physical damage caused to the buildings is not precisely known, by far. The paper analyzes the influence of uncertainties in strong event parameters determination by Alert Seismological Surveys, of simulation models used at all stages from, estimating shaking intensity

  17. Transfusion-related acute lung injury risk mitigation: an update.

    Otrock, Z K; Liu, C; Grossman, B J


    Transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) is a life-threatening complication of transfusion. Greater understanding of the pathophysiology of this syndrome has much improved during the last two decades. Plasma-containing components from female donors with leucocyte antibodies were responsible for the majority of TRALI fatalities before mitigation strategies were implemented. Over the past 15 years, measures to mitigate risk for TRALI have been implemented worldwide and they continued to evolve with time. The AABB requires that all plasma containing components and whole blood for transfusion must be collected from men, women who have not been pregnant, or women who have tested negative for human leucocyte antigen antibodies. Although the incidence of TRALI has decreased following the institution of TRALI mitigation strategies, TRALI is still the most common cause of transfusion-associated death in the United States. In this review, we focus on TRALI risk mitigation strategies. We describe the measures taken by blood collection facilities to reduce the risk of TRALI in the United States, Canada and European countries. We also review the literature for the effectiveness of these measures. © 2017 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  18. Substance-related traffic-risk behaviors among college students

    Arria, Amelia M.; Caldeira, Kimberly M.; Vincent, Kathryn B.; Garnier-Dykstra, Laura M.; O’Grady, Kevin E.


    Aims Drunk driving is a major public health concern, but drugged driving has received little attention. This study examines drugged driving and riding with a drugged driver in a college student sample, in terms of prevalence, age-related trends, race/sex differences, overlap with drunk driving, and risk for alcohol and marijuana dependence. Methods Students (N=1194) ages 19 to 22 were interviewed annually for three years about past-year frequency of drugged driving, riding with a drugged/drunk driver, drunk driving, access to a car, and alcohol/drug dependence. Annual follow-up rates were excellent (88% to 91%). Repeated measures analyses were conducted using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Results One in six (17%wt) 19-year-olds with access to a car drove drugged in the past year; prevalence remained stable through age 22. Drugged driving was more prevalent among males (pdrunk (ranges between 47% and 60%). Both drugged and drunk driving were independently associated with increased risk for alcohol dependence, holding constant age, sex, and race. Drunk driving did not add to the risk for marijuana dependence in the context of drugged driving. Conclusions The prevalence of drugged driving is similar to drunk driving among college students. Both are strongly associated with underlying alcohol and drug dependence. Prevention and treatment implications are discussed. PMID:21601379

  19. Abrasive blasting agents: designing studies to evaluate relative risk.

    Hubbs, Ann; Greskevitch, Mark; Kuempel, Eileen; Suarez, Fernando; Toraason, Mark

    Workers exposed to respirable crystalline silica used in abrasive blasting are at increased risk of developing a debilitating and often fatal fibrotic lung disease called silicosis. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) recommends that silica sand be prohibited as abrasive blasting material and that less hazardous materials be used in blasting operations. However, data are needed on the relative risks associated with exposure to abrasive blasting materials other than silica. NIOSH has completed acute studies in rats (Hubbs et al., 2001; Porter et al., 2002). To provide dose-response data applicable to making recommendation for occupational exposure limits, NIOSH has collaborated with the National Toxicology Program (NTP) to design longer term studies with silica substitutes. For risk assessment purposes, selected doses will include concentrations that are relevant to human exposures. Rat lung burdens achieved should be comparable to those estimated in humans with working lifetime exposures, even if this results in "overloading" doses in rats. To quantify both dose and response, retained particle burdens in the lungs and lung-associated lymph nodes will be measured, as well as biochemical and pathological indices of pulmonary response. This design will facilitate assessment of the pulmonary fibrogenic potential of inhaled abrasive blasting agents at occupationally relevant concentrations.

  20. A smartphone application for earthquakes that matter!

    Bossu, Rémy; Etivant, Caroline; Roussel, Fréderic; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Steed, Robert


    Smartphone applications have swiftly become one of the most popular tools for rapid reception of earthquake information for the public, some of them having been downloaded more than 1 million times! The advantages are obvious: wherever someone's own location is, they can be automatically informed when an earthquake has struck. Just by setting a magnitude threshold and an area of interest, there is no longer the need to browse the internet as the information reaches you automatically and instantaneously! One question remains: are the provided earthquake notifications always relevant for the public? What are the earthquakes that really matters to laypeople? One clue may be derived from some newspaper reports that show that a while after damaging earthquakes many eyewitnesses scrap the application they installed just after the mainshock. Why? Because either the magnitude threshold is set too high and many felt earthquakes are missed, or it is set too low and the majority of the notifications are related to unfelt earthquakes thereby only increasing anxiety among the population at each new update. Felt and damaging earthquakes are the ones that matter the most for the public (and authorities). They are the ones of societal importance even when of small magnitude. A smartphone application developed by EMSC (Euro-Med Seismological Centre) with the financial support of the Fondation MAIF aims at providing suitable notifications for earthquakes by collating different information threads covering tsunamigenic, potentially damaging and felt earthquakes. Tsunamigenic earthquakes are considered here to be those ones that are the subject of alert or information messages from the PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre). While potentially damaging earthquakes are identified through an automated system called EQIA (Earthquake Qualitative Impact Assessment) developed and operated at EMSC. This rapidly assesses earthquake impact by comparing the population exposed to each expected

  1. Autoantibodies to IA-2beta improve diabetes risk assessment in high-risk relatives

    Achenbach, P; Bonifacio, E; Williams, A J K;


    . METHODS: Autoantibodies to insulin (IAA), glutamate decarboxylase (GADA) and IA-2 (IA2A) were measured in 549 participants at study entry, and IA2A-positive samples tested for IA2betaA. First-phase insulin response (FPIR) and oral glucose tolerance were determined at baseline. RESULTS: Of 212 ICA/IA2A......-positive participants (median age 12.1 years; 57% male), 113 developed diabetes (5 year cumulative risk 56%), and 148 were also GADA-positive and IAA-positive (4Ab-positive). IA2betaA were detected in 137 (65%) ICA/IA2A-positive participants and were associated with an increased 5 year diabetes risk (IA2beta......A-positive 65 vs 39% in IA2betaA-negative, p=0.0002). The effect was most marked in 4Ab-positive relatives (72% vs 52%, p=0.003). Metabolic testing further refined risk assessment. Among 101 4Ab-positive relatives with IA2betaA, the 5 year risk was 94% in those with a low FPIR (vs 50% in those with a normal...

  2. Parallelization of the Coupled Earthquake Model

    Block, Gary; Li, P. Peggy; Song, Yuhe T.


    This Web-based tsunami simulation system allows users to remotely run a model on JPL s supercomputers for a given undersea earthquake. At the time of this reporting, predicting tsunamis on the Internet has never happened before. This new code directly couples the earthquake model and the ocean model on parallel computers and improves simulation speed. Seismometers can only detect information from earthquakes; they cannot detect whether or not a tsunami may occur as a result of the earthquake. When earthquake-tsunami models are coupled with the improved computational speed of modern, high-performance computers and constrained by remotely sensed data, they are able to provide early warnings for those coastal regions at risk. The software is capable of testing NASA s satellite observations of tsunamis. It has been successfully tested for several historical tsunamis, has passed all alpha and beta testing, and is well documented for users.

  3. Energy drinks and alcohol-related risk among young adults.

    Caviness, Celeste M; Anderson, Bradley J; Stein, Michael D


    Energy drink consumption, with or without concurrent alcohol use, is common among young adults. This study sought to clarify risk for negative alcohol outcomes related to the timing of energy drink use. The authors interviewed a community sample of 481 young adults, aged 18-25, who drank alcohol in the last month. Past-30-day energy drink use was operationalized as no-use, use without concurrent alcohol, and concurrent use of energy drinks with alcohol ("within a couple of hours"). Negative alcohol outcomes included past-30-day binge drinking, past-30-day alcohol use disorder, and drinking-related consequences. Just over half (50.5%) reported no use of energy drinks,18.3% reported using energy drinks without concurrent alcohol use, and 31.2% reported concurrent use of energy drinks and alcohol. Relative to those who reported concurrent use of energy drinks with alcohol, and controlling for background characteristics and frequency of alcohol consumption, those who didn't use energy drinks and those who used without concurrent alcohol use had significantly lower binge drinking, negative consequences, and rates of alcohol use disorder (P energy drink without concurrent alcohol groups on any alcohol-related measure (P > .10 for all outcomes). Concurrent energy