Regression analysis using dependent Polya trees.
Schörgendorfer, Angela; Branscum, Adam J
2013-11-30
Many commonly used models for linear regression analysis force overly simplistic shape and scale constraints on the residual structure of data. We propose a semiparametric Bayesian model for regression analysis that produces data-driven inference by using a new type of dependent Polya tree prior to model arbitrary residual distributions that are allowed to evolve across increasing levels of an ordinal covariate (e.g., time, in repeated measurement studies). By modeling residual distributions at consecutive covariate levels or time points using separate, but dependent Polya tree priors, distributional information is pooled while allowing for broad pliability to accommodate many types of changing residual distributions. We can use the proposed dependent residual structure in a wide range of regression settings, including fixed-effects and mixed-effects linear and nonlinear models for cross-sectional, prospective, and repeated measurement data. A simulation study illustrates the flexibility of our novel semiparametric regression model to accurately capture evolving residual distributions. In an application to immune development data on immunoglobulin G antibodies in children, our new model outperforms several contemporary semiparametric regression models based on a predictive model selection criterion. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Classification and regression trees
Breiman, Leo; Olshen, Richard A; Stone, Charles J
1984-01-01
The methodology used to construct tree structured rules is the focus of this monograph. Unlike many other statistical procedures, which moved from pencil and paper to calculators, this text's use of trees was unthinkable before computers. Both the practical and theoretical sides have been developed in the authors' study of tree methods. Classification and Regression Trees reflects these two sides, covering the use of trees as a data analysis method, and in a more mathematical framework, proving some of their fundamental properties.
Sub-pixel estimation of tree cover and bare surface densities using regression tree analysis
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Carlos Augusto Zangrando Toneli
2011-09-01
Full Text Available Sub-pixel analysis is capable of generating continuous fields, which represent the spatial variability of certain thematic classes. The aim of this work was to develop numerical models to represent the variability of tree cover and bare surfaces within the study area. This research was conducted in the riparian buffer within a watershed of the São Francisco River in the North of Minas Gerais, Brazil. IKONOS and Landsat TM imagery were used with the GUIDE algorithm to construct the models. The results were two index images derived with regression trees for the entire study area, one representing tree cover and the other representing bare surface. The use of non-parametric and non-linear regression tree models presented satisfactory results to characterize wetland, deciduous and savanna patterns of forest formation.
Lo, Benjamin W Y; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A H
2016-01-01
Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56-2.45, P tree was generated, which serves as a prediction tool to guide bedside prognostication and clinical treatment decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Janssen, I.; Stebbings, J.H.
1990-01-01
In environmental epidemiology, trace and toxic substance concentrations frequently have very highly skewed distributions ranging over one or more orders of magnitude, and prediction by conventional regression is often poor. Classification and Regression Tree Analysis (CART) is an alternative in such contexts. To compare the techniques, two Pennsylvania data sets and three independent variables are used: house radon progeny (RnD) and gamma levels as predicted by construction characteristics in 1330 houses; and ∼200 house radon (Rn) measurements as predicted by topographic parameters. CART may identify structural variables of interest not identified by conventional regression, and vice versa, but in general the regression models are similar. CART has major advantages in dealing with other common characteristics of environmental data sets, such as missing values, continuous variables requiring transformations, and large sets of potential independent variables. CART is most useful in the identification and screening of independent variables, greatly reducing the need for cross-tabulations and nested breakdown analyses. There is no need to discard cases with missing values for the independent variables because surrogate variables are intrinsic to CART. The tree-structured approach is also independent of the scale on which the independent variables are measured, so that transformations are unnecessary. CART identifies important interactions as well as main effects. The major advantages of CART appear to be in exploring data. Once the important variables are identified, conventional regressions seem to lead to results similar but more interpretable by most audiences. 12 refs., 8 figs., 10 tabs
What Satisfies Students?: Mining Student-Opinion Data with Regression and Decision Tree Analysis
Thomas, Emily H.; Galambos, Nora
2004-01-01
To investigate how students' characteristics and experiences affect satisfaction, this study uses regression and decision tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm to analyze student-opinion data. A data mining approach identifies the specific aspects of students' university experience that most influence three measures of general satisfaction. The…
Regression tree analysis for predicting body weight of Nigerian Muscovy duck (Cairina moschata
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Oguntunji Abel Olusegun
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Morphometric parameters and their indices are central to the understanding of the type and function of livestock. The present study was conducted to predict body weight (BWT of adult Nigerian Muscovy ducks from nine (9 morphometric parameters and seven (7 body indices and also to identify the most important predictor of BWT among them using regression tree analysis (RTA. The experimental birds comprised of 1,020 adult male and female Nigerian Muscovy ducks randomly sampled in Rain Forest (203, Guinea Savanna (298 and Derived Savanna (519 agro-ecological zones. Result of RTA revealed that compactness; body girth and massiveness were the most important independent variables in predicting BWT and were used in constructing RT. The combined effect of the three predictors was very high and explained 91.00% of the observed variation of the target variable (BWT. The optimal regression tree suggested that Muscovy ducks with compactness >5.765 would be fleshy and have highest BWT. The result of the present study could be exploited by animal breeders and breeding companies in selection and improvement of BWT of Muscovy ducks.
Risk Factors of Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: Logistic Regression Tree Analysis
Yamashita, Takashi; Noe, Douglas A.; Bailer, A. John
2012-01-01
Purpose of the Study: A novel logistic regression tree-based method was applied to identify fall risk factors and possible interaction effects of those risk factors. Design and Methods: A nationally representative sample of American older adults aged 65 years and older (N = 9,592) in the Health and Retirement Study 2004 and 2006 modules was used.…
Cohen, Ira L.; Liu, Xudong; Hudson, Melissa; Gillis, Jennifer; Cavalari, Rachel N. S.; Romanczyk, Raymond G.; Karmel, Bernard Z.; Gardner, Judith M.
2016-01-01
In order to improve discrimination accuracy between Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and similar neurodevelopmental disorders, a data mining procedure, Classification and Regression Trees (CART), was used on a large multi-site sample of PDD Behavior Inventory (PDDBI) forms on children with and without ASD. Discrimination accuracy exceeded 80%,…
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Josef Smolle
2001-01-01
Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of the CART (Classification and Regression Tree procedure for the recognition of microscopic structures in tissue counter analysis. Methods: Digital microscopic images of H&E stained slides of normal human skin and of primary malignant melanoma were overlayed with regularly distributed square measuring masks (elements and grey value, texture and colour features within each mask were recorded. In the learning set, elements were interactively labeled as representing either connective tissue of the reticular dermis, other tissue components or background. Subsequently, CART models were based on these data sets. Results: Implementation of the CART classification rules into the image analysis program showed that in an independent test set 94.1% of elements classified as connective tissue of the reticular dermis were correctly labeled. Automated measurements of the total amount of tissue and of the amount of connective tissue within a slide showed high reproducibility (r=0.97 and r=0.94, respectively; p < 0.001. Conclusions: CART procedure in tissue counter analysis yields simple and reproducible classification rules for tissue elements.
Damghi, Nada; Khoudri, Ibtissam; Oualili, Latifa; Abidi, Khalid; Madani, Naoufel; Zeggwagh, Amine Ali; Abouqal, Redouane
2008-07-01
Meeting the needs of patients' family members becomes an essential part of responsibilities of intensive care unit physicians. The aim of this study was to evaluate the satisfaction of patients' family members using the Arabic version of the Society of Critical Care Medicine's Family Needs Assessment questionnaire and to assess the predictors of family satisfaction using the classification and regression tree method. The authors conducted a prospective study. This study was conducted at a 12-bed medical intensive care unit in Morocco. Family representatives (n = 194) of consecutive patients with a length of stay >48 hrs were included in the study. Intervention was the Society of Critical Care Medicine's Family Needs Assessment questionnaire. Demographic data for relatives included age, gender, relationship with patients, education level, and intensive care unit commuting time. Clinical data for patients included age, gender, diagnoses, intensive care unit length of stay, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, MacCabe index, Therapeutic Interventioning Scoring System, and mechanical ventilation. The Arabic version of the Society of Critical Care Medicine's Family Needs Assessment questionnaire was administered between the third and fifth days after admission. Of family representatives, 81% declared being satisfied with information provided by physicians, 27% would like more information about the diagnosis, 30% about prognosis, and 45% about treatment. In univariate analysis, family satisfaction (small Society of Critical Care Medicine's Family Needs Assessment questionnaire score) increased with a lower family education level (p = .005), when the information was given by a senior physician (p = .014), and when the Society of Critical Care Medicine's Family Needs Assessment questionnaire was administered by an investigator (p = .002). Multivariate analysis (classification and regression tree) showed that the education level was the predominant factor
Capacitance Regression Modelling Analysis on Latex from Selected Rubber Tree Clones
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rosli, A D; Baharudin, R; Hashim, H; Khairuzzaman, N A; Mohd Sampian, A F; Abdullah, N E; Kamaru'zzaman, M; Sulaiman, M S
2015-01-01
This paper investigates the capacitance regression modelling performance of latex for various rubber tree clones, namely clone 2002, 2008, 2014 and 3001. Conventionally, the rubber tree clones identification are based on observation towards tree features such as shape of leaf, trunk, branching habit and pattern of seeds texture. The former method requires expert persons and very time-consuming. Currently, there is no sensing device based on electrical properties that can be employed to measure different clones from latex samples. Hence, with a hypothesis that the dielectric constant of each clone varies, this paper discusses the development of a capacitance sensor via Capacitance Comparison Bridge (known as capacitance sensor) to measure an output voltage of different latex samples. The proposed sensor is initially tested with 30ml of latex sample prior to gradually addition of dilution water. The output voltage and capacitance obtained from the test are recorded and analyzed using Simple Linear Regression (SLR) model. This work outcome infers that latex clone of 2002 has produced the highest and reliable linear regression line with determination coefficient of 91.24%. In addition, the study also found that the capacitive elements in latex samples deteriorate if it is diluted with higher volume of water. (paper)
Brabant, Marie-Eve; Hebert, Martine; Chagnon, Francois
2013-01-01
This study explored the clinical profiles of 77 female teenager survivors of sexual abuse and examined the association of abuse-related and personal variables with suicidal ideations. Analyses revealed that 64% of participants experienced suicidal ideations. Findings from classification and regression tree analysis indicated that depression,…
Thomas, Emily H.; Galambos, Nora
To investigate how students' characteristics and experiences affect satisfaction, this study used regression and decision-tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm to analyze student opinion data from a sample of 1,783 college students. A data-mining approach identifies the specific aspects of students' university experience that most influence three…
Tomczyk, Aleksandra; Ewertowski, Marek; White, Piran; Kasprzak, Leszek
2016-04-01
The dual role of many Protected Natural Areas in providing benefits for both conservation and recreation poses challenges for management. Although recreation-based damage to ecosystems can occur very quickly, restoration can take many years. The protection of conservation interests at the same as providing for recreation requires decisions to be made about how to prioritise and direct management actions. Trails are commonly used to divert visitors from the most important areas of a site, but high visitor pressure can lead to increases in trail width and a concomitant increase in soil erosion. Here we use detailed field data on condition of recreational trails in Gorce National Park, Poland, as the basis for a regression tree analysis to determine the factors influencing trail deterioration, and link specific trail impacts with environmental, use related and managerial factors. We distinguished 12 types of trails, characterised by four levels of degradation: (1) trails with an acceptable level of degradation; (2) threatened trails; (3) damaged trails; and (4) heavily damaged trails. Damaged trails were the most vulnerable of all trails and should be prioritised for appropriate conservation and restoration. We also proposed five types of monitoring of recreational trail conditions: (1) rapid inventory of negative impacts; (2) monitoring visitor numbers and variation in type of use; (3) change-oriented monitoring focusing on sections of trail which were subjected to changes in type or level of use or subjected to extreme weather events; (4) monitoring of dynamics of trail conditions; and (5) full assessment of trail conditions, to be carried out every 10-15 years. The application of the proposed framework can enhance the ability of Park managers to prioritise their trail management activities, enhancing trail conditions and visitor safety, while minimising adverse impacts on the conservation value of the ecosystem. A.M.T. was supported by the Polish Ministry of
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Andréa Gazzinelli
Full Text Available Praziquantel (PZQ is an effective chemotherapy for schistosomiasis mansoni and a mainstay for its control and potential elimination. However, it does not prevent against reinfection, which can occur rapidly in areas with active transmission. A guide to ranking the risk factors for Schistosoma mansoni reinfection would greatly contribute to prioritizing resources and focusing prevention and control measures to prevent rapid reinfection. The objective of the current study was to explore the relationship among the socioeconomic, demographic, and epidemiological factors that can influence reinfection by S. mansoni one year after successful treatment with PZQ in school-aged children in Northeastern Minas Gerais state Brazil. Parasitological, socioeconomic, demographic, and water contact information were surveyed in 506 S. mansoni-infected individuals, aged 6 to 15 years, resident in these endemic areas. Eligible individuals were treated with PZQ until they were determined to be negative by the absence of S. mansoni eggs in the feces on two consecutive days of Kato-Katz fecal thick smear. These individuals were surveyed again 12 months from the date of successful treatment with PZQ. A classification and regression tree modeling (CART was then used to explore the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic, and epidemiological variables and their reinfection status. The most important risk factor identified for S. mansoni reinfection was their "heavy" infection at baseline. Additional analyses, excluding heavy infection status, showed that lower socioeconomic status and a lower level of education of the household head were also most important risk factors for S. mansoni reinfection. Our results provide an important contribution toward the control and possible elimination of schistosomiasis by identifying three major risk factors that can be used for targeted treatment and monitoring of reinfection. We suggest that control measures that target
Freund, Rudolf J; Sa, Ping
2006-01-01
The book provides complete coverage of the classical methods of statistical analysis. It is designed to give students an understanding of the purpose of statistical analyses, to allow the student to determine, at least to some degree, the correct type of statistical analyses to be performed in a given situation, and have some appreciation of what constitutes good experimental design
Dynamic travel time estimation using regression trees.
2008-10-01
This report presents a methodology for travel time estimation by using regression trees. The dissemination of travel time information has become crucial for effective traffic management, especially under congested road conditions. In the absence of c...
Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia; Xie, Jing; Keeffe, Jill Elizabeth
2011-04-25
To identify the critical success factors (CSF) associated with coverage of low vision services. Data were collected from a survey distributed to Vision 2020 contacts, government, and non-government organizations (NGOs) in 195 countries. The Classification and Regression Tree Analysis (CART) was used to identify the critical success factors of low vision service coverage. Independent variables were sourced from the survey: policies, epidemiology, provision of services, equipment and infrastructure, barriers to services, human resources, and monitoring and evaluation. Socioeconomic and demographic independent variables: health expenditure, population statistics, development status, and human resources in general, were sourced from the World Health Organization (WHO), World Bank, and the United Nations (UN). The findings identified that having >50% of children obtaining devices when prescribed (χ(2) = 44; P 3 rehabilitation workers per 10 million of population (χ(2) = 4.50; P = 0.034), higher percentage of population urbanized (χ(2) = 14.54; P = 0.002), a level of private investment (χ(2) = 14.55; P = 0.015), and being fully funded by government (χ(2) = 6.02; P = 0.014), are critical success factors associated with coverage of low vision services. This study identified the most important predictors for countries with better low vision coverage. The CART is a useful and suitable methodology in survey research and is a novel way to simplify a complex global public health issue in eye care.
Chen, Wei; Li, Hui; Hou, Enke; Wang, Shengquan; Wang, Guirong; Panahi, Mahdi; Li, Tao; Peng, Tao; Guo, Chen; Niu, Chao; Xiao, Lele; Wang, Jiale; Xie, Xiaoshen; Ahmad, Baharin Bin
2018-09-01
The aim of the current study was to produce groundwater spring potential maps using novel ensemble weights-of-evidence (WoE) with logistic regression (LR) and functional tree (FT) models. First, a total of 66 springs were identified by field surveys, out of which 70% of the spring locations were used for training the models and 30% of the spring locations were employed for the validation process. Second, a total of 14 affecting factors including aspect, altitude, slope, plan curvature, profile curvature, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), sediment transport index (STI), lithology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land use, soil, distance to roads, and distance to streams was used to analyze the spatial relationship between these affecting factors and spring occurrences. Multicollinearity analysis and feature selection of the correlation attribute evaluation (CAE) method were employed to optimize the affecting factors. Subsequently, the novel ensembles of the WoE, LR, and FT models were constructed using the training dataset. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, standard error, confidence interval (CI) at 95%, and significance level P were employed to validate and compare the performance of three models. Overall, all three models performed well for groundwater spring potential evaluation. The prediction capability of the FT model, with the highest AUC values, the smallest standard errors, the narrowest CIs, and the smallest P values for the training and validation datasets, is better compared to those of other models. The groundwater spring potential maps can be adopted for the management of water resources and land use by planners and engineers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Brian A. Johnson
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The advent of very high resolution (VHR satellite imagery and the development of Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA have led to many new opportunities for fine-scale land cover mapping, especially in urban areas. Image segmentation is an important step in the GEOBIA framework, so great time/effort is often spent to ensure that computer-generated image segments closely match real-world objects of interest. In the remote sensing community, segmentation is frequently performed using the multiresolution segmentation (MRS algorithm, which is tuned through three user-defined parameters (the scale, shape/color, and compactness/smoothness parameters. The scale parameter (SP is the most important parameter and governs the average size of generated image segments. Existing automatic methods to determine suitable SPs for segmentation are scene-specific and often computationally intensive, so an approach to estimating appropriate SPs that is generalizable (i.e., not scene-specific could speed up the GEOBIA workflow considerably. In this study, we attempted to identify generalizable SPs for five common urban land cover types (buildings, vegetation, roads, bare soil, and water through meta-analysis and nonlinear regression tree (RT modeling. First, we performed a literature search of recent studies that employed GEOBIA for urban land cover mapping and extracted the MRS parameters used, the image properties (i.e., spatial and radiometric resolutions, and the land cover classes mapped. Using this data extracted from the literature, we constructed RT models for each land cover class to predict suitable SP values based on the: image spatial resolution, image radiometric resolution, shape/color parameter, and compactness/smoothness parameter. Based on a visual and quantitative analysis of results, we found that for all land cover classes except water, relatively accurate SPs could be identified using our RT modeling results. The main advantage of our
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Artur Wnorowski
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Tree saps are nourishing biological media commonly used for beverage and syrup production. Although the nutritional aspect of tree saps is widely acknowledged, the exact relationship between the sap composition, origin, and effect on the metabolic rate of human cells is still elusive. Thus, we collected saps from seven different tree species and conducted composition-activity analysis. Saps from trees of Betulaceae, but not from Salicaceae, Sapindaceae, nor Juglandaceae families, were increasing the metabolic rate of HepG2 cells, as measured using tetrazolium-based assay. Content of glucose, fructose, sucrose, chlorides, nitrates, sulphates, fumarates, malates, and succinates in sap samples varied across different tree species. Grade correspondence analysis clustered trees based on the saps’ chemical footprint indicating its usability in chemotaxonomy. Multiple regression modeling showed that glucose and fumarate present in saps from silver birch (Betula pendula Roth., black alder (Alnus glutinosa Gaertn., and European hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L. are positively affecting the metabolic activity of HepG2 cells.
Regression analysis by example
Chatterjee, Samprit
2012-01-01
Praise for the Fourth Edition: ""This book is . . . an excellent source of examples for regression analysis. It has been and still is readily readable and understandable."" -Journal of the American Statistical Association Regression analysis is a conceptually simple method for investigating relationships among variables. Carrying out a successful application of regression analysis, however, requires a balance of theoretical results, empirical rules, and subjective judgment. Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition has been expanded
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David J. Purpura
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Many children struggle to successfully acquire early mathematics skills. Theoretical and empirical evidence has pointed to deficits in domain-specific skills (e.g., non-symbolic mathematics skills or domain-general skills (e.g., executive functioning and language as underlying low mathematical performance. In the current study, we assessed a sample of 113 three- to five-year old preschool children on a battery of domain-specific and domain-general factors in the fall and spring of their preschool year to identify Time 1 (fall factors associated with low performance in mathematics knowledge at Time 2 (spring. We used the exploratory approach of classification and regression tree analyses, a strategy that uses step-wise partitioning to create subgroups from a larger sample using multiple predictors, to identify the factors that were the strongest classifiers of low performance for younger and older preschool children. Results indicated that the most consistent classifier of low mathematics performance at Time 2 was children’s Time 1 mathematical language skills. Further, other distinct classifiers of low performance emerged for younger and older children. These findings suggest that risk classification for low mathematics performance may differ depending on children’s age.
L.R. Iverson; A.M. Prasad; A. Liaw
2004-01-01
More and better machine learning tools are becoming available for landscape ecologists to aid in understanding species-environment relationships and to map probable species occurrence now and potentially into the future. To thal end, we evaluated three statistical models: Regression Tree Analybib (RTA), Bagging Trees (BT) and Random Forest (RF) for their utility in...
Short-term load forecasting with increment regression tree
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yang, Jingfei; Stenzel, Juergen [Darmstadt University of Techonology, Darmstadt 64283 (Germany)
2006-06-15
This paper presents a new regression tree method for short-term load forecasting. Both increment and non-increment tree are built according to the historical data to provide the data space partition and input variable selection. Support vector machine is employed to the samples of regression tree nodes for further fine regression. Results of different tree nodes are integrated through weighted average method to obtain the comprehensive forecasting result. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through its application to an actual system. (author)
Bayesian logistic regression analysis
Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.
2012-01-01
In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an
Seber, George A F
2012-01-01
Concise, mathematically clear, and comprehensive treatment of the subject.* Expanded coverage of diagnostics and methods of model fitting.* Requires no specialized knowledge beyond a good grasp of matrix algebra and some acquaintance with straight-line regression and simple analysis of variance models.* More than 200 problems throughout the book plus outline solutions for the exercises.* This revision has been extensively class-tested.
Multicollinearity and Regression Analysis
Daoud, Jamal I.
2017-12-01
In regression analysis it is obvious to have a correlation between the response and predictor(s), but having correlation among predictors is something undesired. The number of predictors included in the regression model depends on many factors among which, historical data, experience, etc. At the end selection of most important predictors is something objective due to the researcher. Multicollinearity is a phenomena when two or more predictors are correlated, if this happens, the standard error of the coefficients will increase [8]. Increased standard errors means that the coefficients for some or all independent variables may be found to be significantly different from In other words, by overinflating the standard errors, multicollinearity makes some variables statistically insignificant when they should be significant. In this paper we focus on the multicollinearity, reasons and consequences on the reliability of the regression model.
Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov
2015-01-01
The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules by…
Susanti, Yuliana; Zukhronah, Etik; Pratiwi, Hasih; Respatiwulan; Sri Sulistijowati, H.
2017-11-01
To achieve food resilience in Indonesia, food diversification by exploring potentials of local food is required. Corn is one of alternating staple food of Javanese society. For that reason, corn production needs to be improved by considering the influencing factors. CHAID and CRT are methods of data mining which can be used to classify the influencing variables. The present study seeks to dig up information on the potentials of local food availability of corn in regencies and cities in Java Island. CHAID analysis yields four classifications with accuracy of 78.8%, while CRT analysis yields seven classifications with accuracy of 79.6%.
The process and utility of classification and regression tree methodology in nursing research.
Kuhn, Lisa; Page, Karen; Ward, John; Worrall-Carter, Linda
2014-06-01
This paper presents a discussion of classification and regression tree analysis and its utility in nursing research. Classification and regression tree analysis is an exploratory research method used to illustrate associations between variables not suited to traditional regression analysis. Complex interactions are demonstrated between covariates and variables of interest in inverted tree diagrams. Discussion paper. English language literature was sourced from eBooks, Medline Complete and CINAHL Plus databases, Google and Google Scholar, hard copy research texts and retrieved reference lists for terms including classification and regression tree* and derivatives and recursive partitioning from 1984-2013. Classification and regression tree analysis is an important method used to identify previously unknown patterns amongst data. Whilst there are several reasons to embrace this method as a means of exploratory quantitative research, issues regarding quality of data as well as the usefulness and validity of the findings should be considered. Classification and regression tree analysis is a valuable tool to guide nurses to reduce gaps in the application of evidence to practice. With the ever-expanding availability of data, it is important that nurses understand the utility and limitations of the research method. Classification and regression tree analysis is an easily interpreted method for modelling interactions between health-related variables that would otherwise remain obscured. Knowledge is presented graphically, providing insightful understanding of complex and hierarchical relationships in an accessible and useful way to nursing and other health professions. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Yu, Huibin; Song, Yonghui; Liu, Ruixia; Pan, Hongwei; Xiang, Liancheng; Qian, Feng
2014-10-01
The stabilization of latent tracers of dissolved organic matter (DOM) of wastewater was analyzed by three-dimensional excitation-emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence spectroscopy coupled with self-organizing map and classification and regression tree analysis (CART) in wastewater treatment performance. DOM of water samples collected from primary sedimentation, anaerobic, anoxic, oxic and secondary sedimentation tanks in a large-scale wastewater treatment plant contained four fluorescence components: tryptophan-like (C1), tyrosine-like (C2), microbial humic-like (C3) and fulvic-like (C4) materials extracted by self-organizing map. These components showed good positive linear correlations with dissolved organic carbon of DOM. C1 and C2 were representative components in the wastewater, and they were removed to a higher extent than those of C3 and C4 in the treatment process. C2 was a latent parameter determined by CART to differentiate water samples of oxic and secondary sedimentation tanks from the successive treatment units, indirectly proving that most of tyrosine-like material was degraded by anaerobic microorganisms. C1 was an accurate parameter to comprehensively separate the samples of the five treatment units from each other, indirectly indicating that tryptophan-like material was decomposed by anaerobic and aerobic bacteria. EEM fluorescence spectroscopy in combination with self-organizing map and CART analysis can be a nondestructive effective method for characterizing structural component of DOM fractions and monitoring organic matter removal in wastewater treatment process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José A. Delgado
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Forest structural parameters such as quadratic mean diameter, basal area, and number of trees per unit area are important for the assessment of wood volume and biomass and represent key forest inventory attributes. Forest inventory information is required to support sustainable management, carbon accounting, and policy development activities. Digital image processing of remotely sensed imagery is increasingly utilized to assist traditional, more manual, methods in the estimation of forest structural attributes over extensive areas, also enabling evaluation of change over time. Empirical attribute estimation with remotely sensed data is frequently employed, yet with known limitations, especially over complex environments such as Mediterranean forests. In this study, the capacity of high spatial resolution (HSR imagery and related techniques to model structural parameters at the stand level (n = 490 in Mediterranean pines in Central Spain is tested using data from the commercial satellite QuickBird-2. Spectral and spatial information derived from multispectral and panchromatic imagery (2.4 m and 0.68 m sided pixels, respectively served to model structural parameters. Classification and Regression Tree Analysis (CART was selected for the modeling of attributes. Accurate models were produced of quadratic mean diameter (QMD (R2 = 0.8; RMSE = 0.13 m with an average error of 17% while basal area (BA models produced an average error of 22% (RMSE = 5.79 m2/ha. When the measured number of trees per unit area (N was categorized, as per frequent forest management practices, CART models correctly classified 70% of the stands, with all other stands classified in an adjacent class. The accuracy of the attributes estimated here is expected to be better when canopy cover is more open and attribute values are at the lower end of the range present, as related in the pattern of the residuals found in this study. Our findings indicate that attributes derived from
Understanding logistic regression analysis
Sperandei, Sandro
2014-01-01
Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using ex...
Understanding logistic regression analysis.
Sperandei, Sandro
2014-01-01
Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using examples to make it as simple as possible. After definition of the technique, the basic interpretation of the results is highlighted and then some special issues are discussed.
Multiple linear regression analysis
Edwards, T. R.
1980-01-01
Program rapidly selects best-suited set of coefficients. User supplies only vectors of independent and dependent data and specifies confidence level required. Program uses stepwise statistical procedure for relating minimal set of variables to set of observations; final regression contains only most statistically significant coefficients. Program is written in FORTRAN IV for batch execution and has been implemented on NOVA 1200.
Xiao, Hong; Lin, Xiao-ling; Dai, Xiang-yu; Gao, Li-dong; Chen, Bi-yun; Zhang, Xi-xing; Zhu, Pei-juan; Tian, Huai-yu
2012-05-01
To analyze the periodicity of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha in year 2009 and its correlation with sensitive climatic factors. The information of 5439 cases of influenza A (H1N1) and synchronous meteorological data during the period between May 22th and December 31st in year 2009 (223 days in total) in Changsha city were collected. The classification and regression tree (CART) was employed to screen the sensitive climatic factors on influenza A (H1N1); meanwhile, cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis were applied to assess and compare the periodicity of the pandemic disease and its association with the time-lag phase features of the sensitive climatic factors. The results of CART indicated that the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity were the sensitive climatic factors for the popularity of influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha. The peak of the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) was in the period between October and December (Median (M) = 44.00 cases per day), simultaneously the daily minimum temperature (M = 13°C) and daily absolute humidity (M = 6.69 g/m(3)) were relatively low. The results of wavelet analysis demonstrated that a period of 16 days was found in the epidemic threshold in Changsha, while the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity were the relatively sensitive climatic factors. The number of daily reported patients was statistically relevant to the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity. The frequency domain was mostly in the period of (16 ± 2) days. In the initial stage of the disease (from August 9th and September 8th), a 6-day lag was found between the incidence and the daily minimum temperature. In the peak period of the disease, the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity were negatively relevant to the incidence of the disease. In the pandemic period, the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) showed periodic features; and the sensitive climatic factors did have a "driving
Iron Supplementation and Altitude: Decision Making Using a Regression Tree
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Laura A. Garvican-Lewis, Andrew D. Govus, Peter Peeling, Chris R. Abbiss, Christopher J. Gore
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Altitude exposure increases the body’s need for iron (Gassmann and Muckenthaler, 2015, primarily to support accelerated erythropoiesis, yet clear supplementation guidelines do not exist. Athletes are typically recommended to ingest a daily oral iron supplement to facilitate altitude adaptations, and to help maintain iron balance. However, there is some debate as to whether athletes with otherwise healthy iron stores should be supplemented, due in part to concerns of iron overload. Excess iron in vital organs is associated with an increased risk of a number of conditions including cancer, liver disease and heart failure. Therefore clear guidelines are warranted and athletes should be discouraged from ‘self-prescribing” supplementation without medical advice. In the absence of prospective-controlled studies, decision tree analysis can be used to describe a data set, with the resultant regression tree serving as guide for clinical decision making. Here, we present a regression tree in the context of iron supplementation during altitude exposure, to examine the association between pre-altitude ferritin (Ferritin-Pre and the haemoglobin mass (Hbmass response, based on daily iron supplement dose. De-identified ferritin and Hbmass data from 178 athletes engaged in altitude training were extracted from the Australian Institute of Sport (AIS database. Altitude exposure was predominantly achieved via normobaric Live high: Train low (n = 147 at a simulated altitude of 3000 m for 2 to 4 weeks. The remaining athletes engaged in natural altitude training at venues ranging from 1350 to 2800 m for 3-4 weeks. Thus, the “hypoxic dose” ranged from ~890 km.h to ~1400 km.h. Ethical approval was granted by the AIS Human Ethics Committee, and athletes provided written informed consent. An in depth description and traditional analysis of the complete data set is presented elsewhere (Govus et al., 2015. Iron supplementation was prescribed by a sports physician
Yamashita, Takashi; Kart, Cary S; Noe, Douglas A
2012-12-01
Type 2 diabetes is known to contribute to health disparities in the U.S. and failure to adhere to recommended self-care behaviors is a contributing factor. Intervention programs face difficulties as a result of patient diversity and limited resources. With data from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, this study employs a logistic regression tree algorithm to identify characteristics of sub-populations with type 2 diabetes according to their reported frequency of adherence to four recommended diabetes self-care behaviors including blood glucose monitoring, foot examination, eye examination and HbA1c testing. Using Andersen's health behavior model, need factors appear to dominate the definition of which sub-groups were at greatest risk for low as well as high adherence. Findings demonstrate the utility of easily interpreted tree diagrams to design specific culturally appropriate intervention programs targeting sub-populations of diabetes patients who need to improve their self-care behaviors. Limitations and contributions of the study are discussed.
Regression: The Apple Does Not Fall Far From the Tree.
Vetter, Thomas R; Schober, Patrick
2018-05-15
Researchers and clinicians are frequently interested in either: (1) assessing whether there is a relationship or association between 2 or more variables and quantifying this association; or (2) determining whether 1 or more variables can predict another variable. The strength of such an association is mainly described by the correlation. However, regression analysis and regression models can be used not only to identify whether there is a significant relationship or association between variables but also to generate estimations of such a predictive relationship between variables. This basic statistical tutorial discusses the fundamental concepts and techniques related to the most common types of regression analysis and modeling, including simple linear regression, multiple regression, logistic regression, ordinal regression, and Poisson regression, as well as the common yet often underrecognized phenomenon of regression toward the mean. The various types of regression analysis are powerful statistical techniques, which when appropriately applied, can allow for the valid interpretation of complex, multifactorial data. Regression analysis and models can assess whether there is a relationship or association between 2 or more observed variables and estimate the strength of this association, as well as determine whether 1 or more variables can predict another variable. Regression is thus being applied more commonly in anesthesia, perioperative, critical care, and pain research. However, it is crucial to note that regression can identify plausible risk factors; it does not prove causation (a definitive cause and effect relationship). The results of a regression analysis instead identify independent (predictor) variable(s) associated with the dependent (outcome) variable. As with other statistical methods, applying regression requires that certain assumptions be met, which can be tested with specific diagnostics.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lucinda Pfalzer
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Background/Purpose: Over 1/3 of adults over age 65 experiences at least one fall each year. This pilot report uses a classification regression tree analysis (CART to model the outcomes for balance/risk of falls from the Gentiva® Safe Strides® Program (SSP. Methods/Outcomes: SSP is a home-based balance/fall prevention program designed to treat root causes of a patient
Chen, Guangchao; Li, Xuehua; Chen, Jingwen; Zhang, Ya-Nan; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M
2014-12-01
Biodegradation is the principal environmental dissipation process of chemicals. As such, it is a dominant factor determining the persistence and fate of organic chemicals in the environment, and is therefore of critical importance to chemical management and regulation. In the present study, the authors developed in silico methods assessing biodegradability based on a large heterogeneous set of 825 organic compounds, using the techniques of the C4.5 decision tree, the functional inner regression tree, and logistic regression. External validation was subsequently carried out by 2 independent test sets of 777 and 27 chemicals. As a result, the functional inner regression tree exhibited the best predictability with predictive accuracies of 81.5% and 81.0%, respectively, on the training set (825 chemicals) and test set I (777 chemicals). Performance of the developed models on the 2 test sets was subsequently compared with that of the Estimation Program Interface (EPI) Suite Biowin 5 and Biowin 6 models, which also showed a better predictability of the functional inner regression tree model. The model built in the present study exhibits a reasonable predictability compared with existing models while possessing a transparent algorithm. Interpretation of the mechanisms of biodegradation was also carried out based on the models developed. © 2014 SETAC.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Keeney, R.; Renn, O.; Winterfeldt, D. von; Kotte, U.
1985-01-01
What are the targets and criteria on which national energy policy should be based. What priorities should be set, and how can different social interests be matched. To answer these questions, a new instrument of decision theory is presented which has been applied with good results to controversial political issues in the USA. The new technique is known under the name of value tree analysis. Members of important West German organisations (BDI, VDI, RWE, the Catholic and Protestant Church, Deutscher Naturschutzring, and ecological research institutions) were asked about the goals of their organisations. These goals were then ordered systematically and arranged in a hierarchical tree structure. The value trees of different groups can be combined into a catalogue of social criteria of acceptability and policy assessment. The authors describe the philosophy and methodology of value tree analysis and give an outline of its application in the development of a socially acceptable energy policy. (orig.) [de
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petersen, Mette Bisgaard; Tolver, Anders; Husted, Louise
2016-01-01
-off value of 7 mmol/L had a sensitivity of 0.66 and a specificity of 0.92 in predicting survival. In independent test data, the sensitivity was 0.69 and the specificity was 0.76. At the observed survival rate (38%), the optimal decision tree identified horses as non-survivors when the Lac at admission...... admitted with acute colitis (trees, as well as random...
Polylinear regression analysis in radiochemistry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kopyrin, A.A.; Terent'eva, T.N.; Khramov, N.N.
1995-01-01
A number of radiochemical problems have been formulated in the framework of polylinear regression analysis, which permits the use of conventional mathematical methods for their solution. The authors have considered features of the use of polylinear regression analysis for estimating the contributions of various sources to the atmospheric pollution, for studying irradiated nuclear fuel, for estimating concentrations from spectral data, for measuring neutron fields of a nuclear reactor, for estimating crystal lattice parameters from X-ray diffraction patterns, for interpreting data of X-ray fluorescence analysis, for estimating complex formation constants, and for analyzing results of radiometric measurements. The problem of estimating the target parameters can be incorrect at certain properties of the system under study. The authors showed the possibility of regularization by adding a fictitious set of data open-quotes obtainedclose quotes from the orthogonal design. To estimate only a part of the parameters under consideration, the authors used incomplete rank models. In this case, it is necessary to take into account the possibility of confounding estimates. An algorithm for evaluating the degree of confounding is presented which is realized using standard software or regression analysis
Polynomial regression analysis and significance test of the regression function
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gao Zhengming; Zhao Juan; He Shengping
2012-01-01
In order to analyze the decay heating power of a certain radioactive isotope per kilogram with polynomial regression method, the paper firstly demonstrated the broad usage of polynomial function and deduced its parameters with ordinary least squares estimate. Then significance test method of polynomial regression function is derived considering the similarity between the polynomial regression model and the multivariable linear regression model. Finally, polynomial regression analysis and significance test of the polynomial function are done to the decay heating power of the iso tope per kilogram in accord with the authors' real work. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1981-09-01
Suggestion are made concerning the method of the fault tree analysis, the use of certain symbols in the examination of system failures. This purpose of the fault free analysis is to find logical connections of component or subsystem failures leading to undesirable occurrances. The results of these examinations are part of the system assessment concerning operation and safety. The objectives of the analysis are: systematical identification of all possible failure combinations (causes) leading to a specific undesirable occurrance, finding of reliability parameters such as frequency of failure combinations, frequency of the undesirable occurrance or non-availability of the system when required. The fault tree analysis provides a near and reconstructable documentation of the examination. (orig./HP) [de
Guo, Huey-Ming; Shyu, Yea-Ing Lotus; Chang, Her-Kun
2006-01-01
In this article, the authors provide an overview of a research method to predict quality of care in home health nursing data set. The results of this study can be visualized through classification an regression tree (CART) graphs. The analysis was more effective, and the results were more informative since the home health nursing dataset was analyzed with a combination of the logistic regression and CART, these two techniques complete each other. And the results more informative that more patients' characters were related to quality of care in home care. The results contributed to home health nurse predict patient outcome in case management. Improved prediction is needed for interventions to be appropriately targeted for improved patient outcome and quality of care.
Introduction to fault tree analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barlow, R.E.; Lambert, H.E.
1975-01-01
An elementary, engineering oriented introduction to fault tree analysis is presented. The basic concepts, techniques and applications of fault tree analysis, FTA, are described. The two major steps of FTA are identified as (1) the construction of the fault tree and (2) its evaluation. The evaluation of the fault tree can be qualitative or quantitative depending upon the scope, extensiveness and use of the analysis. The advantages, limitations and usefulness of FTA are discussed
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Spreadsheets are included here to support the manuscript "Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations and Biological Condition". This...
[Hyperspectral Estimation of Apple Tree Canopy LAI Based on SVM and RF Regression].
Han, Zhao-ying; Zhu, Xi-cun; Fang, Xian-yi; Wang, Zhuo-yuan; Wang, Ling; Zhao, Geng-Xing; Jiang, Yuan-mao
2016-03-01
Leaf area index (LAI) is the dynamic index of crop population size. Hyperspectral technology can be used to estimate apple canopy LAI rapidly and nondestructively. It can be provide a reference for monitoring the tree growing and yield estimation. The Red Fuji apple trees of full bearing fruit are the researching objects. Ninety apple trees canopies spectral reflectance and LAI values were measured by the ASD Fieldspec3 spectrometer and LAI-2200 in thirty orchards in constant two years in Qixia research area of Shandong Province. The optimal vegetation indices were selected by the method of correlation analysis of the original spectral reflectance and vegetation indices. The models of predicting the LAI were built with the multivariate regression analysis method of support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The new vegetation indices, GNDVI527, ND-VI676, RVI682, FD-NVI656 and GRVI517 and the previous two main vegetation indices, NDVI670 and NDVI705, are in accordance with LAI. In the RF regression model, the calibration set decision coefficient C-R2 of 0.920 and validation set decision coefficient V-R2 of 0.889 are higher than the SVM regression model by 0.045 and 0.033 respectively. The root mean square error of calibration set C-RMSE of 0.249, the root mean square error validation set V-RMSE of 0.236 are lower than that of the SVM regression model by 0.054 and 0.058 respectively. Relative analysis of calibrating error C-RPD and relative analysis of validation set V-RPD reached 3.363 and 2.520, 0.598 and 0.262, respectively, which were higher than the SVM regression model. The measured and predicted the scatterplot trend line slope of the calibration set and validation set C-S and V-S are close to 1. The estimation result of RF regression model is better than that of the SVM. RF regression model can be used to estimate the LAI of red Fuji apple trees in full fruit period.
Susan L. King
2003-01-01
The performance of two classifiers, logistic regression and neural networks, are compared for modeling noncatastrophic individual tree mortality for 21 species of trees in West Virginia. The output of the classifier is usually a continuous number between 0 and 1. A threshold is selected between 0 and 1 and all of the trees below the threshold are classified as...
Regression analysis with categorized regression calibrated exposure: some interesting findings
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hjartåker Anette
2006-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Regression calibration as a method for handling measurement error is becoming increasingly well-known and used in epidemiologic research. However, the standard version of the method is not appropriate for exposure analyzed on a categorical (e.g. quintile scale, an approach commonly used in epidemiologic studies. A tempting solution could then be to use the predicted continuous exposure obtained through the regression calibration method and treat it as an approximation to the true exposure, that is, include the categorized calibrated exposure in the main regression analysis. Methods We use semi-analytical calculations and simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach compared to the naive approach of not correcting for measurement error, in situations where analyses are performed on quintile scale and when incorporating the original scale into the categorical variables, respectively. We also present analyses of real data, containing measures of folate intake and depression, from the Norwegian Women and Cancer study (NOWAC. Results In cases where extra information is available through replicated measurements and not validation data, regression calibration does not maintain important qualities of the true exposure distribution, thus estimates of variance and percentiles can be severely biased. We show that the outlined approach maintains much, in some cases all, of the misclassification found in the observed exposure. For that reason, regression analysis with the corrected variable included on a categorical scale is still biased. In some cases the corrected estimates are analytically equal to those obtained by the naive approach. Regression calibration is however vastly superior to the naive method when applying the medians of each category in the analysis. Conclusion Regression calibration in its most well-known form is not appropriate for measurement error correction when the exposure is analyzed on a
Regression Nodes: Extending attack trees with data from social sciences
Bullee, Jan-Willem; Montoya, L.; Pieters, Wolter; Junger, Marianne; Hartel, Pieter H.
In the field of security, attack trees are often used to assess security vulnerabilities probabilistically in relation to multi-step attacks. The nodes are usually connected via AND-gates, where all children must be executed, or via OR-gates, where only one action is necessary for the attack step to
Jovanovic, Milos; Radovanovic, Sandro; Vukicevic, Milan; Van Poucke, Sven; Delibasic, Boris
2016-09-01
Quantification and early identification of unplanned readmission risk have the potential to improve the quality of care during hospitalization and after discharge. However, high dimensionality, sparsity, and class imbalance of electronic health data and the complexity of risk quantification, challenge the development of accurate predictive models. Predictive models require a certain level of interpretability in order to be applicable in real settings and create actionable insights. This paper aims to develop accurate and interpretable predictive models for readmission in a general pediatric patient population, by integrating a data-driven model (sparse logistic regression) and domain knowledge based on the international classification of diseases 9th-revision clinical modification (ICD-9-CM) hierarchy of diseases. Additionally, we propose a way to quantify the interpretability of a model and inspect the stability of alternative solutions. The analysis was conducted on >66,000 pediatric hospital discharge records from California, State Inpatient Databases, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project between 2009 and 2011. We incorporated domain knowledge based on the ICD-9-CM hierarchy in a data driven, Tree-Lasso regularized logistic regression model, providing the framework for model interpretation. This approach was compared with traditional Lasso logistic regression resulting in models that are easier to interpret by fewer high-level diagnoses, with comparable prediction accuracy. The results revealed that the use of a Tree-Lasso model was as competitive in terms of accuracy (measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve-AUC) as the traditional Lasso logistic regression, but integration with the ICD-9-CM hierarchy of diseases provided more interpretable models in terms of high-level diagnoses. Additionally, interpretations of models are in accordance with existing medical understanding of pediatric readmission. Best performing models have
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Santana Isabel
2011-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Dementia and cognitive impairment associated with aging are a major medical and social concern. Neuropsychological testing is a key element in the diagnostic procedures of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI, but has presently a limited value in the prediction of progression to dementia. We advance the hypothesis that newer statistical classification methods derived from data mining and machine learning methods like Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines and Random Forests can improve accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of predictions obtained from neuropsychological testing. Seven non parametric classifiers derived from data mining methods (Multilayer Perceptrons Neural Networks, Radial Basis Function Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, CART, CHAID and QUEST Classification Trees and Random Forests were compared to three traditional classifiers (Linear Discriminant Analysis, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression in terms of overall classification accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, Area under the ROC curve and Press'Q. Model predictors were 10 neuropsychological tests currently used in the diagnosis of dementia. Statistical distributions of classification parameters obtained from a 5-fold cross-validation were compared using the Friedman's nonparametric test. Results Press' Q test showed that all classifiers performed better than chance alone (p Conclusions When taking into account sensitivity, specificity and overall classification accuracy Random Forests and Linear Discriminant analysis rank first among all the classifiers tested in prediction of dementia using several neuropsychological tests. These methods may be used to improve accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of Dementia predictions from neuropsychological testing.
Principal component regression analysis with SPSS.
Liu, R X; Kuang, J; Gong, Q; Hou, X L
2003-06-01
The paper introduces all indices of multicollinearity diagnoses, the basic principle of principal component regression and determination of 'best' equation method. The paper uses an example to describe how to do principal component regression analysis with SPSS 10.0: including all calculating processes of the principal component regression and all operations of linear regression, factor analysis, descriptives, compute variable and bivariate correlations procedures in SPSS 10.0. The principal component regression analysis can be used to overcome disturbance of the multicollinearity. The simplified, speeded up and accurate statistical effect is reached through the principal component regression analysis with SPSS.
Regression Analysis by Example. 5th Edition
Chatterjee, Samprit; Hadi, Ali S.
2012-01-01
Regression analysis is a conceptually simple method for investigating relationships among variables. Carrying out a successful application of regression analysis, however, requires a balance of theoretical results, empirical rules, and subjective judgment. "Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition" has been expanded and thoroughly…
Perceived Organizational Support for Enhancing Welfare at Work: A Regression Tree Model
Giorgi, Gabriele; Dubin, David; Perez, Javier Fiz
2016-01-01
When trying to examine outcomes such as welfare and well-being, research tends to focus on main effects and take into account limited numbers of variables at a time. There are a number of techniques that may help address this problem. For example, many statistical packages available in R provide easy-to-use methods of modeling complicated analysis such as classification and tree regression (i.e., recursive partitioning). The present research illustrates the value of recursive partitioning in the prediction of perceived organizational support in a sample of more than 6000 Italian bankers. Utilizing the tree function party package in R, we estimated a regression tree model predicting perceived organizational support from a multitude of job characteristics including job demand, lack of job control, lack of supervisor support, training, etc. The resulting model appears particularly helpful in pointing out several interactions in the prediction of perceived organizational support. In particular, training is the dominant factor. Another dimension that seems to influence organizational support is reporting (perceived communication about safety and stress concerns). Results are discussed from a theoretical and methodological point of view. PMID:28082924
Survival analysis II: Cox regression
Stel, Vianda S.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Tripepi, Giovanni; Zoccali, Carmine; Jager, Kitty J.
2011-01-01
In contrast to the Kaplan-Meier method, Cox proportional hazards regression can provide an effect estimate by quantifying the difference in survival between patient groups and can adjust for confounding effects of other variables. The purpose of this article is to explain the basic concepts of the
Gaussian process regression analysis for functional data
Shi, Jian Qing
2011-01-01
Gaussian Process Regression Analysis for Functional Data presents nonparametric statistical methods for functional regression analysis, specifically the methods based on a Gaussian process prior in a functional space. The authors focus on problems involving functional response variables and mixed covariates of functional and scalar variables.Covering the basics of Gaussian process regression, the first several chapters discuss functional data analysis, theoretical aspects based on the asymptotic properties of Gaussian process regression models, and new methodological developments for high dime
Multivariate Regression Analysis and Slaughter Livestock,
AGRICULTURE, *ECONOMICS), (*MEAT, PRODUCTION), MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS , ANIMALS, WEIGHT, COSTS, PREDICTIONS, STABILITY, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, STORAGE, BEEF, PORK, FOOD, STATISTICAL DATA, ACCURACY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stefanie M. Herrmann
2013-10-01
Full Text Available Field trees are an integral part of the farmed parkland landscape in West Africa and provide multiple benefits to the local environment and livelihoods. While field trees have received increasing interest in the context of strengthening resilience to climate variability and change, the actual extent of farmed parkland and spatial patterns of tree cover are largely unknown. We used the rule-based predictive modeling tool Cubist® to estimate field tree cover in the west-central agricultural region of Senegal. A collection of rules and associated multiple linear regression models was constructed from (1 a reference dataset of percent tree cover derived from very high spatial resolution data (2 m Orbview as the dependent variable, and (2 ten years of 10-day 250 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI composites and derived phenological metrics as independent variables. Correlation coefficients between modeled and reference percent tree cover of 0.88 and 0.77 were achieved for training and validation data respectively, with absolute mean errors of 1.07 and 1.03 percent tree cover. The resulting map shows a west-east gradient from high tree cover in the peri-urban areas of horticulture and arboriculture to low tree cover in the more sparsely populated eastern part of the study area. A comparison of current (2000s tree cover along this gradient with historic cover as seen on Corona images reveals dynamics of change but also areas of remarkable stability of field tree cover since 1968. The proposed modeling approach can help to identify locations of high and low tree cover in dryland environments and guide ground studies and management interventions aimed at promoting the integration of field trees in agricultural systems.
Bianca N.I. Eskelson; Hailemariam Temesgen; Tara M. Barrett
2009-01-01
Cavity tree and snag abundance data are highly variable and contain many zero observations. We predict cavity tree and snag abundance from variables that are readily available from forest cover maps or remotely sensed data using negative binomial (NB), zero-inflated NB, and zero-altered NB (ZANB) regression models as well as nearest neighbor (NN) imputation methods....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Suduan Chen
2014-01-01
Full Text Available As the fraudulent financial statement of an enterprise is increasingly serious with each passing day, establishing a valid forecasting fraudulent financial statement model of an enterprise has become an important question for academic research and financial practice. After screening the important variables using the stepwise regression, the study also matches the logistic regression, support vector machine, and decision tree to construct the classification models to make a comparison. The study adopts financial and nonfinancial variables to assist in establishment of the forecasting fraudulent financial statement model. Research objects are the companies to which the fraudulent and nonfraudulent financial statement happened between years 1998 to 2012. The findings are that financial and nonfinancial information are effectively used to distinguish the fraudulent financial statement, and decision tree C5.0 has the best classification effect 85.71%.
Chen, Suduan; Goo, Yeong-Jia James; Shen, Zone-De
2014-01-01
As the fraudulent financial statement of an enterprise is increasingly serious with each passing day, establishing a valid forecasting fraudulent financial statement model of an enterprise has become an important question for academic research and financial practice. After screening the important variables using the stepwise regression, the study also matches the logistic regression, support vector machine, and decision tree to construct the classification models to make a comparison. The study adopts financial and nonfinancial variables to assist in establishment of the forecasting fraudulent financial statement model. Research objects are the companies to which the fraudulent and nonfraudulent financial statement happened between years 1998 to 2012. The findings are that financial and nonfinancial information are effectively used to distinguish the fraudulent financial statement, and decision tree C5.0 has the best classification effect 85.71%.
Applied regression analysis a research tool
Pantula, Sastry; Dickey, David
1998-01-01
Least squares estimation, when used appropriately, is a powerful research tool. A deeper understanding of the regression concepts is essential for achieving optimal benefits from a least squares analysis. This book builds on the fundamentals of statistical methods and provides appropriate concepts that will allow a scientist to use least squares as an effective research tool. Applied Regression Analysis is aimed at the scientist who wishes to gain a working knowledge of regression analysis. The basic purpose of this book is to develop an understanding of least squares and related statistical methods without becoming excessively mathematical. It is the outgrowth of more than 30 years of consulting experience with scientists and many years of teaching an applied regression course to graduate students. Applied Regression Analysis serves as an excellent text for a service course on regression for non-statisticians and as a reference for researchers. It also provides a bridge between a two-semester introduction to...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ziping WANG
2011-09-01
Full Text Available Background and objective It has been proven that gefitinib produces only 10%-20% tumor regression in heavily pretreated, unselected non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC patients as the second- and third-line setting. Asian, female, nonsmokers and adenocarcinoma are favorable factors; however, it is difficult to find a patient satisfying all the above clinical characteristics. The aim of this study is to identify novel predicting factors, and to explore the interactions between clinical variables and their impact on the survival of Chinese patients with advanced NSCLC who were heavily treated with gefitinib in the second- or third-line setting. Methods The clinical and follow-up data of 127 advanced NSCLC patients referred to the Cancer Hospital & Institute, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from March 2005 to March 2010 were analyzed. Multivariate analysis of progression-free survival (PFS was performed using recursive partitioning, which is referred to as the classification and regression tree (CART analysis. Results The median PFS of 127 eligible consecutive advanced NSCLC patients was 8.0 months (95%CI: 5.8-10.2. CART was performed with an initial split on first-line chemotherapy outcomes and a second split on patients’ age. Three terminal subgroups were formed. The median PFS of the three subsets ranged from 1.0 month (95%CI: 0.8-1.2 for those with progressive disease outcome after the first-line chemotherapy subgroup, 10 months (95%CI: 7.0-13.0 in patients with a partial response or stable disease in first-line chemotherapy and age <70, and 22.0 months for patients obtaining a partial response or stable disease in first-line chemotherapy at age 70-81 (95%CI: 3.8-40.1. Conclusion Partial response, stable disease in first-line chemotherapy and age ≥ 70 are closely correlated with long-term survival treated by gefitinib as a second- or third-line setting in advanced NSCLC. CART can be used to identify previously unappreciated patient
RAWS II: A MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS PROGRAM,
This memorandum gives instructions for the use and operation of a revised version of RAWS, a multiple regression analysis program. The program...of preprocessed data, the directed retention of variable, listing of the matrix of the normal equations and its inverse, and the bypassing of the regression analysis to provide the input variable statistics only. (Author)
Hierarchical regression analysis in structural Equation Modeling
de Jong, P.F.
1999-01-01
In a hierarchical or fixed-order regression analysis, the independent variables are entered into the regression equation in a prespecified order. Such an analysis is often performed when the extra amount of variance accounted for in a dependent variable by a specific independent variable is the main
Regression Analysis and the Sociological Imagination
De Maio, Fernando
2014-01-01
Regression analysis is an important aspect of most introductory statistics courses in sociology but is often presented in contexts divorced from the central concerns that bring students into the discipline. Consequently, we present five lesson ideas that emerge from a regression analysis of income inequality and mortality in the USA and Canada.
Huang, C.; Townshend, J.R.G.
2003-01-01
A stepwise regression tree (SRT) algorithm was developed for approximating complex nonlinear relationships. Based on the regression tree of Breiman et al . (BRT) and a stepwise linear regression (SLR) method, this algorithm represents an improvement over SLR in that it can approximate nonlinear relationships and over BRT in that it gives more realistic predictions. The applicability of this method to estimating subpixel forest was demonstrated using three test data sets, on all of which it gave more accurate predictions than SLR and BRT. SRT also generated more compact trees and performed better than or at least as well as BRT at all 10 equal forest proportion interval ranging from 0 to 100%. This method is appealing to estimating subpixel land cover over large areas.
Suchetana, Bihu; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Silverstein, JoAnn
2017-11-15
A regression tree-based diagnostic approach is developed to evaluate factors affecting US wastewater treatment plant compliance with ammonia discharge permit limits using Discharge Monthly Report (DMR) data from a sample of 106 municipal treatment plants for the period of 2004-2008. Predictor variables used to fit the regression tree are selected using random forests, and consist of the previous month's effluent ammonia, influent flow rates and plant capacity utilization. The tree models are first used to evaluate compliance with existing ammonia discharge standards at each facility and then applied assuming more stringent discharge limits, under consideration in many states. The model predicts that the ability to meet both current and future limits depends primarily on the previous month's treatment performance. With more stringent discharge limits predicted ammonia concentration relative to the discharge limit, increases. In-sample validation shows that the regression trees can provide a median classification accuracy of >70%. The regression tree model is validated using ammonia discharge data from an operating wastewater treatment plant and is able to accurately predict the observed ammonia discharge category approximately 80% of the time, indicating that the regression tree model can be applied to predict compliance for individual treatment plants providing practical guidance for utilities and regulators with an interest in controlling ammonia discharges. The proposed methodology is also used to demonstrate how to delineate reliable sources of demand and supply in a point source-to-point source nutrient credit trading scheme, as well as how planners and decision makers can set reasonable discharge limits in future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Incomplete meteorological data has been a problem in environmental modeling studies. The objective of this work was to develop a technique to reconstruct missing daily precipitation data in the central part of Chesapeake Bay Watershed using regression trees (RT) and artificial neural networks (ANN)....
Two Paradoxes in Linear Regression Analysis
FENG, Ge; PENG, Jing; TU, Dongke; ZHENG, Julia Z.; FENG, Changyong
2016-01-01
Summary Regression is one of the favorite tools in applied statistics. However, misuse and misinterpretation of results from regression analysis are common in biomedical research. In this paper we use statistical theory and simulation studies to clarify some paradoxes around this popular statistical method. In particular, we show that a widely used model selection procedure employed in many publications in top medical journals is wrong. Formal procedures based on solid statistical theory should be used in model selection. PMID:28638214
Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen; Schillo, Sonja
2017-01-01
Risk equalization formulas have been refined since their introduction about two decades ago. Because of the complexity and the abundance of possible interactions between the variables used, hardly any interactions are considered. A regression tree is used to systematically search for interactions, a methodologically new approach in risk equalization. Analyses are based on a data set of nearly 2.9 million individuals from a major German social health insurer. A two-step approach is applied: In the first step a regression tree is built on the basis of the learning data set. Terminal nodes characterized by more than one morbidity-group-split represent interaction effects of different morbidity groups. In the second step the 'traditional' weighted least squares regression equation is expanded by adding interaction terms for all interactions detected by the tree, and regression coefficients are recalculated. The resulting risk adjustment formula shows an improvement in the adjusted R 2 from 25.43% to 25.81% on the evaluation data set. Predictive ratios are calculated for subgroups affected by the interactions. The R 2 improvement detected is only marginal. According to the sample level performance measures used, not involving a considerable number of morbidity interactions forms no relevant loss in accuracy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Method for nonlinear exponential regression analysis
Junkin, B. G.
1972-01-01
Two computer programs developed according to two general types of exponential models for conducting nonlinear exponential regression analysis are described. Least squares procedure is used in which the nonlinear problem is linearized by expanding in a Taylor series. Program is written in FORTRAN 5 for the Univac 1108 computer.
Travis Woolley; David C. Shaw; Lisa M. Ganio; Stephen. Fitzgerald
2012-01-01
Logistic regression models used to predict tree mortality are critical to post-fire management, planning prescribed bums and understanding disturbance ecology. We review literature concerning post-fire mortality prediction using logistic regression models for coniferous tree species in the western USA. We include synthesis and review of: methods to develop, evaluate...
Prediction of tissue-specific cis-regulatory modules using Bayesian networks and regression trees
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chen Xiaoyu
2007-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background In vertebrates, a large part of gene transcriptional regulation is operated by cis-regulatory modules. These modules are believed to be regulating much of the tissue-specificity of gene expression. Results We develop a Bayesian network approach for identifying cis-regulatory modules likely to regulate tissue-specific expression. The network integrates predicted transcription factor binding site information, transcription factor expression data, and target gene expression data. At its core is a regression tree modeling the effect of combinations of transcription factors bound to a module. A new unsupervised EM-like algorithm is developed to learn the parameters of the network, including the regression tree structure. Conclusion Our approach is shown to accurately identify known human liver and erythroid-specific modules. When applied to the prediction of tissue-specific modules in 10 different tissues, the network predicts a number of important transcription factor combinations whose concerted binding is associated to specific expression.
Groundwater level prediction of landslide based on classification and regression tree
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yannan Zhao
2016-09-01
Full Text Available According to groundwater level monitoring data of Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, based on the response relationship between influential factors such as rainfall and reservoir level and the change of groundwater level, the influential factors of groundwater level were selected. Then the classification and regression tree (CART model was constructed by the subset and used to predict the groundwater level. Through the verification, the predictive results of the test sample were consistent with the actually measured values, and the mean absolute error and relative error is 0.28 m and 1.15% respectively. To compare the support vector machine (SVM model constructed using the same set of factors, the mean absolute error and relative error of predicted results is 1.53 m and 6.11% respectively. It is indicated that CART model has not only better fitting and generalization ability, but also strong advantages in the analysis of landslide groundwater dynamic characteristics and the screening of important variables. It is an effective method for prediction of ground water level in landslides.
Regression trees modeling and forecasting of PM10 air pollution in urban areas
Stoimenova, M.; Voynikova, D.; Ivanov, A.; Gocheva-Ilieva, S.; Iliev, I.
2017-10-01
Fine particulate matter (PM10) air pollution is a serious problem affecting the health of the population in many Bulgarian cities. As an example, the object of this study is the pollution with PM10 of the town of Pleven, Northern Bulgaria. The measured concentrations of this air pollutant for this city consistently exceeded the permissible limits set by European and national legislation. Based on data for the last 6 years (2011-2016), the analysis shows that this applies both to the daily limit of 50 micrograms per cubic meter and the allowable number of daily concentration exceedances to 35 per year. Also, the average annual concentration of PM10 exceeded the prescribed norm of no more than 40 micrograms per cubic meter. The aim of this work is to build high performance mathematical models for effective prediction and forecasting the level of PM10 pollution. The study was conducted with the powerful flexible data mining technique Classification and Regression Trees (CART). The values of PM10 were fitted with respect to meteorological data such as maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction and others, as well as with time and autoregressive variables. As a result the obtained CART models demonstrate high predictive ability and fit the actual data with up to 80%. The best models were applied for forecasting the level pollution for 3 to 7 days ahead. An interpretation of the modeling results is presented.
On logistic regression analysis of dichotomized responses.
Lu, Kaifeng
2017-01-01
We study the properties of treatment effect estimate in terms of odds ratio at the study end point from logistic regression model adjusting for the baseline value when the underlying continuous repeated measurements follow a multivariate normal distribution. Compared with the analysis that does not adjust for the baseline value, the adjusted analysis produces a larger treatment effect as well as a larger standard error. However, the increase in standard error is more than offset by the increase in treatment effect so that the adjusted analysis is more powerful than the unadjusted analysis for detecting the treatment effect. On the other hand, the true adjusted odds ratio implied by the normal distribution of the underlying continuous variable is a function of the baseline value and hence is unlikely to be able to be adequately represented by a single value of adjusted odds ratio from the logistic regression model. In contrast, the risk difference function derived from the logistic regression model provides a reasonable approximation to the true risk difference function implied by the normal distribution of the underlying continuous variable over the range of the baseline distribution. We show that different metrics of treatment effect have similar statistical power when evaluated at the baseline mean. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Robust Mediation Analysis Based on Median Regression
Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.
2014-01-01
Mediation analysis has many applications in psychology and the social sciences. The most prevalent methods typically assume that the error distribution is normal and homoscedastic. However, this assumption may rarely be met in practice, which can affect the validity of the mediation analysis. To address this problem, we propose robust mediation analysis based on median regression. Our approach is robust to various departures from the assumption of homoscedasticity and normality, including heavy-tailed, skewed, contaminated, and heteroscedastic distributions. Simulation studies show that under these circumstances, the proposed method is more efficient and powerful than standard mediation analysis. We further extend the proposed robust method to multilevel mediation analysis, and demonstrate through simulation studies that the new approach outperforms the standard multilevel mediation analysis. We illustrate the proposed method using data from a program designed to increase reemployment and enhance mental health of job seekers. PMID:24079925
Functional data analysis of generalized regression quantiles
Guo, Mengmeng
2013-11-05
Generalized regression quantiles, including the conditional quantiles and expectiles as special cases, are useful alternatives to the conditional means for characterizing a conditional distribution, especially when the interest lies in the tails. We develop a functional data analysis approach to jointly estimate a family of generalized regression quantiles. Our approach assumes that the generalized regression quantiles share some common features that can be summarized by a small number of principal component functions. The principal component functions are modeled as splines and are estimated by minimizing a penalized asymmetric loss measure. An iterative least asymmetrically weighted squares algorithm is developed for computation. While separate estimation of individual generalized regression quantiles usually suffers from large variability due to lack of sufficient data, by borrowing strength across data sets, our joint estimation approach significantly improves the estimation efficiency, which is demonstrated in a simulation study. The proposed method is applied to data from 159 weather stations in China to obtain the generalized quantile curves of the volatility of the temperature at these stations. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.
Functional data analysis of generalized regression quantiles
Guo, Mengmeng; Zhou, Lan; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Hä rdle, Wolfgang Karl
2013-01-01
Generalized regression quantiles, including the conditional quantiles and expectiles as special cases, are useful alternatives to the conditional means for characterizing a conditional distribution, especially when the interest lies in the tails. We develop a functional data analysis approach to jointly estimate a family of generalized regression quantiles. Our approach assumes that the generalized regression quantiles share some common features that can be summarized by a small number of principal component functions. The principal component functions are modeled as splines and are estimated by minimizing a penalized asymmetric loss measure. An iterative least asymmetrically weighted squares algorithm is developed for computation. While separate estimation of individual generalized regression quantiles usually suffers from large variability due to lack of sufficient data, by borrowing strength across data sets, our joint estimation approach significantly improves the estimation efficiency, which is demonstrated in a simulation study. The proposed method is applied to data from 159 weather stations in China to obtain the generalized quantile curves of the volatility of the temperature at these stations. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.
Ebell, Mark H; Afonso, Anna M; Geocadin, Romergryko G
2013-12-01
To predict the likelihood that an inpatient who experiences cardiopulmonary arrest and undergoes cardiopulmonary resuscitation survives to discharge with good neurologic function or with mild deficits (Cerebral Performance Category score = 1). Classification and Regression Trees were used to develop branching algorithms that optimize the ability of a series of tests to correctly classify patients into two or more groups. Data from 2007 to 2008 (n = 38,092) were used to develop candidate Classification and Regression Trees models to predict the outcome of inpatient cardiopulmonary resuscitation episodes and data from 2009 (n = 14,435) to evaluate the accuracy of the models and judge the degree of over fitting. Both supervised and unsupervised approaches to model development were used. 366 hospitals participating in the Get With the Guidelines-Resuscitation registry. Adult inpatients experiencing an index episode of cardiopulmonary arrest and undergoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the hospital. The five candidate models had between 8 and 21 nodes and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.718 to 0.766 in the derivation group and from 0.683 to 0.746 in the validation group. One of the supervised models had 14 nodes and classified 27.9% of patients as very unlikely to survive neurologically intact or with mild deficits (Tree models that predict survival to discharge with good neurologic function or with mild deficits following in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest. Models like this can assist physicians and patients who are considering do-not-resuscitate orders.
Human action analysis with randomized trees
Yu, Gang; Liu, Zicheng
2014-01-01
This book will provide a comprehensive overview on human action analysis with randomized trees. It will cover both the supervised random trees and the unsupervised random trees. When there are sufficient amount of labeled data available, supervised random trees provides a fast method for space-time interest point matching. When labeled data is minimal as in the case of example-based action search, unsupervised random trees is used to leverage the unlabelled data. We describe how the randomized trees can be used for action classification, action detection, action search, and action prediction.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shokouh Taghipour Zahir
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Purpose. We sought to investigate the utility of classification and regression trees (CART classifier to differentiate benign from malignant nodules in patients referred for thyroid surgery. Methods. Clinical and demographic data of 271 patients referred to the Sadoughi Hospital during 2006–2011 were collected. In a two-step approach, a CART classifier was employed to differentiate patients with a high versus low risk of thyroid malignancy. The first step served as the screening procedure and was tailored to produce as few false negatives as possible. The second step identified those with the lowest risk of malignancy, chosen from a high risk population. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV of the optimal tree were calculated. Results. In the first step, age, sex, and nodule size contributed to the optimal tree. Ultrasonographic features were employed in the second step with hypoechogenicity and/or microcalcifications yielding the highest discriminatory ability. The combined tree produced a sensitivity and specificity of 80.0% (95% CI: 29.9–98.9 and 94.1% (95% CI: 78.9–99.0, respectively. NPV and PPV were 66.7% (41.1–85.6 and 97.0% (82.5–99.8, respectively. Conclusion. CART classifier reliably identifies patients with a low risk of malignancy who can avoid unnecessary surgery.
Astuti, Yuniar Andi
2011-01-01
This study examines techniques Support Vector Regression and Decision Tree C4.5 has been used in studies in various fields, in order to know the advantages and disadvantages of both techniques that appear in Data Mining. From the ten studies that use both techniques, the results of the analysis showed that the accuracy of the SVR technique for 59,64% and C4.5 for 76,97% So in this study obtained a statement that C4.5 is better than SVR 097038020
A method for nonlinear exponential regression analysis
Junkin, B. G.
1971-01-01
A computer-oriented technique is presented for performing a nonlinear exponential regression analysis on decay-type experimental data. The technique involves the least squares procedure wherein the nonlinear problem is linearized by expansion in a Taylor series. A linear curve fitting procedure for determining the initial nominal estimates for the unknown exponential model parameters is included as an integral part of the technique. A correction matrix was derived and then applied to the nominal estimate to produce an improved set of model parameters. The solution cycle is repeated until some predetermined criterion is satisfied.
Regression analysis for the social sciences
Gordon, Rachel A
2010-01-01
The book provides graduate students in the social sciences with the basic skills that they need to estimate, interpret, present, and publish basic regression models using contemporary standards. Key features of the book include: interweaving the teaching of statistical concepts with examples developed for the course from publicly-available social science data or drawn from the literature. thorough integration of teaching statistical theory with teaching data processing and analysis. teaching of both SAS and Stata "side-by-side" and use of chapter exercises in which students practice programming and interpretation on the same data set and course exercises in which students can choose their own research questions and data set.
Rovlias, Aristedis; Theodoropoulos, Spyridon; Papoutsakis, Dimitrios
2015-01-01
Background: Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) is one of the most common clinical entities in daily neurosurgical practice which carries a most favorable prognosis. However, because of the advanced age and medical problems of patients, surgical therapy is frequently associated with various complications. This study evaluated the clinical features, radiological findings, and neurological outcome in a large series of patients with CSDH. Methods: A classification and regression tree (CART) technique was employed in the analysis of data from 986 patients who were operated at Asclepeion General Hospital of Athens from January 1986 to December 2011. Burr holes evacuation with closed system drainage has been the operative technique of first choice at our institution for 29 consecutive years. A total of 27 prognostic factors were examined to predict the outcome at 3-month postoperatively. Results: Our results indicated that neurological status on admission was the best predictor of outcome. With regard to the other data, age, brain atrophy, thickness and density of hematoma, subdural accumulation of air, and antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy were found to correlate significantly with prognosis. The overall cross-validated predictive accuracy of CART model was 85.34%, with a cross-validated relative error of 0.326. Conclusions: Methodologically, CART technique is quite different from the more commonly used methods, with the primary benefit of illustrating the important prognostic variables as related to outcome. Since, the ideal therapy for the treatment of CSDH is still under debate, this technique may prove useful in developing new therapeutic strategies and approaches for patients with CSDH. PMID:26257985
The Roots of Inequality: Estimating Inequality of Opportunity from Regression Trees
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brunori, Paolo; Hufe, Paul; Mahler, Daniel Gerszon
2017-01-01
the risk of arbitrary and ad-hoc model selection. Second, they provide a standardized way of trading off upward and downward biases in inequality of opportunity estimations. Finally, regression trees can be graphically represented; their structure is immediate to read and easy to understand. This will make...... the measurement of inequality of opportunity more easily comprehensible to a large audience. These advantages are illustrated by an empirical application based on the 2011 wave of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions....
Credit Scoring Problem Based on Regression Analysis
Khassawneh, Bashar Suhil Jad Allah
2014-01-01
ABSTRACT: This thesis provides an explanatory introduction to the regression models of data mining and contains basic definitions of key terms in the linear, multiple and logistic regression models. Meanwhile, the aim of this study is to illustrate fitting models for the credit scoring problem using simple linear, multiple linear and logistic regression models and also to analyze the found model functions by statistical tools. Keywords: Data mining, linear regression, logistic regression....
Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Tu, Jack V
2012-01-01
In biomedical research, the logistic regression model is the most commonly used method for predicting the probability of a binary outcome. While many clinical researchers have expressed an enthusiasm for regression trees, this method may have limited accuracy for predicting health outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the improvement that is achieved by using ensemble-based methods, including bootstrap aggregation (bagging) of regression trees, random forests, and boosted regression trees. We analyzed 30-day mortality in two large cohorts of patients hospitalized with either acute myocardial infarction (N = 16,230) or congestive heart failure (N = 15,848) in two distinct eras (1999–2001 and 2004–2005). We found that both the in-sample and out-of-sample prediction of ensemble methods offered substantial improvement in predicting cardiovascular mortality compared to conventional regression trees. However, conventional logistic regression models that incorporated restricted cubic smoothing splines had even better performance. We conclude that ensemble methods from the data mining and machine learning literature increase the predictive performance of regression trees, but may not lead to clear advantages over conventional logistic regression models for predicting short-term mortality in population-based samples of subjects with cardiovascular disease. PMID:22777999
van Veen, S H C M; van Kleef, R C; van de Ven, W P M M; van Vliet, R C J A
2018-02-01
This study explores the predictive power of interaction terms between the risk adjusters in the Dutch risk equalization (RE) model of 2014. Due to the sophistication of this RE-model and the complexity of the associations in the dataset (N = ~16.7 million), there are theoretically more than a million interaction terms. We used regression tree modelling, which has been applied rarely within the field of RE, to identify interaction terms that statistically significantly explain variation in observed expenses that is not already explained by the risk adjusters in this RE-model. The interaction terms identified were used as additional risk adjusters in the RE-model. We found evidence that interaction terms can improve the prediction of expenses overall and for specific groups in the population. However, the prediction of expenses for some other selective groups may deteriorate. Thus, interactions can reduce financial incentives for risk selection for some groups but may increase them for others. Furthermore, because regression trees are not robust, additional criteria are needed to decide which interaction terms should be used in practice. These criteria could be the right incentive structure for risk selection and efficiency or the opinion of medical experts. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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M. Saki
2013-03-01
Full Text Available The relationship between plant species and environmental factors has always been a central issue in plant ecology. With rising power of statistical techniques, geo-statistics and geographic information systems (GIS, the development of predictive habitat distribution models of organisms has rapidly increased in ecology. This study aimed to evaluate the ability of Logistic Regression Tree model to create potential habitat map of Astragalus verus. This species produces Tragacanth and has economic value. A stratified- random sampling was applied to 100 sites (50 presence- 50 absence of given species, and produced environmental and edaphic factors maps by using Kriging and Inverse Distance Weighting methods in the ArcGIS software for the whole study area. Relationships between species occurrence and environmental factors were determined by Logistic Regression Tree model and extended to the whole study area. The results indicated species occurrence has strong correlation with environmental factors such as mean daily temperature and clay, EC and organic carbon content of the soil. Species occurrence showed direct relationship with mean daily temperature and clay and organic carbon, and inverse relationship with EC. Model accuracy was evaluated both by Cohen’s kappa statistics (κ and by area under Receiver Operating Characteristics curve based on independent test data set. Their values (kappa=0.9, Auc of ROC=0.96 indicated the high power of LRT to create potential habitat map on local scales. This model, therefore, can be applied to recognize potential sites for rangeland reclamation projects.
Regression analysis for the social sciences
Gordon, Rachel A
2015-01-01
Provides graduate students in the social sciences with the basic skills they need to estimate, interpret, present, and publish basic regression models using contemporary standards. Key features of the book include: interweaving the teaching of statistical concepts with examples developed for the course from publicly-available social science data or drawn from the literature. thorough integration of teaching statistical theory with teaching data processing and analysis. teaching of Stata and use of chapter exercises in which students practice programming and interpretation on the same data set. A separate set of exercises allows students to select a data set to apply the concepts learned in each chapter to a research question of interest to them, all updated for this edition.
Park, Seonyoung; Im, Jungho; Park, Sumin; Rhee, Jinyoung
2017-04-01
Soil moisture is one of the most important keys for understanding regional and global climate systems. Soil moisture is directly related to agricultural processes as well as hydrological processes because soil moisture highly influences vegetation growth and determines water supply in the agroecosystem. Accurate monitoring of the spatiotemporal pattern of soil moisture is important. Soil moisture has been generally provided through in situ measurements at stations. Although field survey from in situ measurements provides accurate soil moisture with high temporal resolution, it requires high cost and does not provide the spatial distribution of soil moisture over large areas. Microwave satellite (e.g., advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on the Earth Observing System (AMSR2), the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP)) -based approaches and numerical models such as Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and Modern- Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) provide spatial-temporalspatiotemporally continuous soil moisture products at global scale. However, since those global soil moisture products have coarse spatial resolution ( 25-40 km), their applications for agriculture and water resources at local and regional scales are very limited. Thus, soil moisture downscaling is needed to overcome the limitation of the spatial resolution of soil moisture products. In this study, GLDAS soil moisture data were downscaled up to 1 km spatial resolution through the integration of AMSR2 and ASCAT soil moisture data, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data—Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and Land cover—using modified regression trees over East Asia from 2013 to 2015. Modified regression trees were implemented using Cubist, a commercial software tool based on machine learning. An
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kropat, Georg; Bochud, Francois; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Laedermann, Jean-Pascal; Murith, Christophe; Palacios, Martha; Baechler, Sébastien
2015-01-01
Purpose: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. Method: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Results: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. Conclusion: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables
A rotor optimization using regression analysis
Giansante, N.
1984-01-01
The design and development of helicopter rotors is subject to the many design variables and their interactions that effect rotor operation. Until recently, selection of rotor design variables to achieve specified rotor operational qualities has been a costly, time consuming, repetitive task. For the past several years, Kaman Aerospace Corporation has successfully applied multiple linear regression analysis, coupled with optimization and sensitivity procedures, in the analytical design of rotor systems. It is concluded that approximating equations can be developed rapidly for a multiplicity of objective and constraint functions and optimizations can be performed in a rapid and cost effective manner; the number and/or range of design variables can be increased by expanding the data base and developing approximating functions to reflect the expanded design space; the order of the approximating equations can be expanded easily to improve correlation between analyzer results and the approximating equations; gradients of the approximating equations can be calculated easily and these gradients are smooth functions reducing the risk of numerical problems in the optimization; the use of approximating functions allows the problem to be started easily and rapidly from various initial designs to enhance the probability of finding a global optimum; and the approximating equations are independent of the analysis or optimization codes used.
Pham, Binh Thai; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu
2018-02-01
A hybrid machine learning approach of Random Subspace (RSS) and Classification And Regression Trees (CART) is proposed to develop a model named RSSCART for spatial prediction of landslides. This model is a combination of the RSS method which is known as an efficient ensemble technique and the CART which is a state of the art classifier. The Luc Yen district of Yen Bai province, a prominent landslide prone area of Viet Nam, was selected for the model development. Performance of the RSSCART model was evaluated through the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, statistical analysis methods, and the Chi Square test. Results were compared with other benchmark landslide models namely Support Vector Machines (SVM), single CART, Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Logistic Regression (LR). In the development of model, ten important landslide affecting factors related with geomorphology, geology and geo-environment were considered namely slope angles, elevation, slope aspect, curvature, lithology, distance to faults, distance to rivers, distance to roads, and rainfall. Performance of the RSSCART model (AUC = 0.841) is the best compared with other popular landslide models namely SVM (0.835), single CART (0.822), NBT (0.821), and LR (0.723). These results indicate that performance of the RSSCART is a promising method for spatial landslide prediction.
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Kritski Afrânio
2006-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yoonseok Shin
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.
Repeated Results Analysis for Middleware Regression Benchmarking
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Bulej, Lubomír; Kalibera, T.; Tůma, P.
2005-01-01
Roč. 60, - (2005), s. 345-358 ISSN 0166-5316 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/03/0672 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : middleware benchmarking * regression benchmarking * regression testing Subject RIV: JD - Computer Applications, Robotics Impact factor: 0.756, year: 2005
Prediction of cannabis and cocaine use in adolescence using decision trees and logistic regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alfonso L. Palmer
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Spain is one of the European countries with the highest prevalence of cannabis and cocaine use among young people. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors related to the consumption of cocaine and cannabis among adolescents. A questionnaire was administered to 9,284 students between 14 and 18 years of age in Palma de Mallorca (47.1% boys and 52.9% girls whose mean age was 15.59 years. Logistic regression and decision trees were carried out in order to model the consumption of cannabis and cocaine. The results show the use of legal substances and committing fraudulence or theft are the main variables that raise the odds of consuming cannabis. In boys, cannabis consumption and a family history of drug use increase the odds of consuming cocaine, whereas in girls the use of alcohol, behaviours of fraudulence or theft and difficulty in some personal skills influence their odds of consuming cocaine. Finally, ease of access to the substance greatly raises the odds of consuming cocaine and cannabis in both genders. Decision trees highlight the role of consuming other substances and committing fraudulence or theft. The results of this study gain importance when it comes to putting into practice effective prevention programmes.
Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Linear regression analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rakesh Aggarwal
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In a previous article in this series, we explained correlation analysis which describes the strength of relationship between two continuous variables. In this article, we deal with linear regression analysis which predicts the value of one continuous variable from another. We also discuss the assumptions and pitfalls associated with this analysis.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hemmateenejad, Bahram, E-mail: hemmatb@sums.ac.ir [Department of Chemistry, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Medicinal and Natural Products Chemistry Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Shamsipur, Mojtaba [Department of Chemistry, Razi University, Kermanshah (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Zare-Shahabadi, Vali [Young Researchers Club, Mahshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mahshahr (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Akhond, Morteza [Department of Chemistry, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
2011-10-17
Highlights: {yields} Ant colony systems help to build optimum classification and regression trees. {yields} Using of genetic algorithm operators in ant colony systems resulted in more appropriate models. {yields} Variable selection in each terminal node of the tree gives promising results. {yields} CART-ACS-GA could model the melting point of organic materials with prediction errors lower than previous models. - Abstract: The classification and regression trees (CART) possess the advantage of being able to handle large data sets and yield readily interpretable models. A conventional method of building a regression tree is recursive partitioning, which results in a good but not optimal tree. Ant colony system (ACS), which is a meta-heuristic algorithm and derived from the observation of real ants, can be used to overcome this problem. The purpose of this study was to explore the use of CART and its combination with ACS for modeling of melting points of a large variety of chemical compounds. Genetic algorithm (GA) operators (e.g., cross averring and mutation operators) were combined with ACS algorithm to select the best solution model. In addition, at each terminal node of the resulted tree, variable selection was done by ACS-GA algorithm to build an appropriate partial least squares (PLS) model. To test the ability of the resulted tree, a set of approximately 4173 structures and their melting points were used (3000 compounds as training set and 1173 as validation set). Further, an external test set containing of 277 drugs was used to validate the prediction ability of the tree. Comparison of the results obtained from both trees showed that the tree constructed by ACS-GA algorithm performs better than that produced by recursive partitioning procedure.
Integrating classification trees with local logistic regression in Intensive Care prognosis.
Abu-Hanna, Ameen; de Keizer, Nicolette
2003-01-01
Health care effectiveness and efficiency are under constant scrutiny especially when treatment is quite costly as in the Intensive Care (IC). Currently there are various international quality of care programs for the evaluation of IC. At the heart of such quality of care programs lie prognostic models whose prediction of patient mortality can be used as a norm to which actual mortality is compared. The current generation of prognostic models in IC are statistical parametric models based on logistic regression. Given a description of a patient at admission, these models predict the probability of his or her survival. Typically, this patient description relies on an aggregate variable, called a score, that quantifies the severity of illness of the patient. The use of a parametric model and an aggregate score form adequate means to develop models when data is relatively scarce but it introduces the risk of bias. This paper motivates and suggests a method for studying and improving the performance behavior of current state-of-the-art IC prognostic models. Our method is based on machine learning and statistical ideas and relies on exploiting information that underlies a score variable. In particular, this underlying information is used to construct a classification tree whose nodes denote patient sub-populations. For these sub-populations, local models, most notably logistic regression ones, are developed using only the total score variable. We compare the performance of this hybrid model to that of a traditional global logistic regression model. We show that the hybrid model not only provides more insight into the data but also has a better performance. We pay special attention to the precision aspect of model performance and argue why precision is more important than discrimination ability.
Modular representation and analysis of fault trees
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Olmos, J; Wolf, L [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge (USA). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering
1978-08-01
An analytical method to describe fault tree diagrams in terms of their modular compositions is developed. Fault tree structures are characterized by recursively relating the top tree event to all its basic component inputs through a set of equations defining each of the modulus for the fault tree. It is shown that such a modular description is an extremely valuable tool for making a quantitative analysis of fault trees. The modularization methodology has been implemented into the PL-MOD computer code, written in PL/1 language, which is capable of modularizing fault trees containing replicated components and replicated modular gates. PL-MOD in addition can handle mutually exclusive inputs and explicit higher order symmetric (k-out-of-n) gates. The step-by-step modularization of fault trees performed by PL-MOD is demonstrated and it is shown how this procedure is only made possible through an extensive use of the list processing tools available in PL/1. A number of nuclear reactor safety system fault trees were analyzed. PL-MOD performed the modularization and evaluation of the modular occurrence probabilities and Vesely-Fussell importance measures for these systems very efficiently. In particular its execution time for the modularization of a PWR High Pressure Injection System reduced fault tree was 25 times faster than that necessary to generate its equivalent minimal cut-set description using MOCUS, a code considered to be fast by present standards.
Discrete Discriminant analysis based on tree-structured graphical models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Perez de la Cruz, Gonzalo; Eslava, Guillermina
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the potential use of discriminant analysis based on tree{structured graphical models for discrete variables. This is done by comparing its empirical performance using estimated error rates for real and simulated data. The results show that discriminant a...... analysis based on tree{structured graphical models is a simple nonlinear method competitive with, and sometimes superior to, other well{known linear methods like those assuming mutual independence between variables and linear logistic regression.......The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the potential use of discriminant analysis based on tree{structured graphical models for discrete variables. This is done by comparing its empirical performance using estimated error rates for real and simulated data. The results show that discriminant...
Human reliability analysis using event trees
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heslinga, G.
1983-01-01
The shut-down procedure of a technologically complex installation as a nuclear power plant consists of a lot of human actions, some of which have to be performed several times. The procedure is regarded as a chain of modules of specific actions, some of which are analyzed separately. The analysis is carried out by making a Human Reliability Analysis event tree (HRA event tree) of each action, breaking down each action into small elementary steps. The application of event trees in human reliability analysis implies more difficulties than in the case of technical systems where event trees were mainly used until now. The most important reason is that the operator is able to recover a wrong performance; memory influences play a significant role. In this study these difficulties are dealt with theoretically. The following conclusions can be drawn: (1) in principle event trees may be used in human reliability analysis; (2) although in practice the operator will recover his fault partly, theoretically this can be described as starting the whole event tree again; (3) compact formulas have been derived, by which the probability of reaching a specific failure consequence on passing through the HRA event tree after several times of recovery is to be calculated. (orig.)
Fault tree analysis for vital area identification
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Varnado, G.B.; Ortiz, N.R.
1978-01-01
This paper discusses the use of fault tree analysis to identify those areas of nuclear fuel cycle facilities which must be protected to prevent acts of sabotage that could lead to sifnificant release of radioactive material. By proper manipulation of the fault trees for a plant, an analyst can identify vital areas in a manner consistent with regulatory definitions. This paper discusses the general procedures used in the analysis of any nuclear facility. In addition, a structured, generic approach to the development of the fault trees for nuclear power reactors is presented along with selected results of the application of the generic approach to several plants
Koestel, John; Bechtold, Michel; Jorda, Helena; Jarvis, Nicholas
2015-04-01
The saturated and near-saturated hydraulic conductivity of soil is of key importance for modelling water and solute fluxes in the vadose zone. Hydraulic conductivity measurements are cumbersome at the Darcy scale and practically impossible at larger scales where water and solute transport models are mostly applied. Hydraulic conductivity must therefore be estimated from proxy variables. Such pedotransfer functions are known to work decently well for e.g. water retention curves but rather poorly for near-saturated and saturated hydraulic conductivities. Recently, Weynants et al. (2009, Revisiting Vereecken pedotransfer functions: Introducing a closed-form hydraulic model. Vadose Zone Journal, 8, 86-95) reported a coefficients of determination of 0.25 (validation with an independent data set) for the saturated hydraulic conductivity from lab-measurements of Belgian soil samples. In our study, we trained boosted regression trees on a global meta-database containing tension-disk infiltrometer data (see Jarvis et al. 2013. Influence of soil, land use and climatic factors on the hydraulic conductivity of soil. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences, 17, 5185-5195) to predict the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and the conductivity at a tension of 10 cm (K10). We found coefficients of determination of 0.39 and 0.62 under a simple 10-fold cross-validation for Ks and K10. When carrying out the validation folded over the data-sources, i.e. the source publications, we found that the corresponding coefficients of determination reduced to 0.15 and 0.36, respectively. We conclude that the stricter source-wise cross-validation should be applied in future pedotransfer studies to prevent overly optimistic validation results. The boosted regression trees also allowed for an investigation of relevant predictors for estimating the near-saturated hydraulic conductivity. We found that land use and bulk density were most important to predict Ks. We also observed that Ks is large in fine
Freitas, Alex A; Limbu, Kriti; Ghafourian, Taravat
2015-01-01
Volume of distribution is an important pharmacokinetic property that indicates the extent of a drug's distribution in the body tissues. This paper addresses the problem of how to estimate the apparent volume of distribution at steady state (Vss) of chemical compounds in the human body using decision tree-based regression methods from the area of data mining (or machine learning). Hence, the pros and cons of several different types of decision tree-based regression methods have been discussed. The regression methods predict Vss using, as predictive features, both the compounds' molecular descriptors and the compounds' tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kt:p) - often used in physiologically-based pharmacokinetics. Therefore, this work has assessed whether the data mining-based prediction of Vss can be made more accurate by using as input not only the compounds' molecular descriptors but also (a subset of) their predicted Kt:p values. Comparison of the models that used only molecular descriptors, in particular, the Bagging decision tree (mean fold error of 2.33), with those employing predicted Kt:p values in addition to the molecular descriptors, such as the Bagging decision tree using adipose Kt:p (mean fold error of 2.29), indicated that the use of predicted Kt:p values as descriptors may be beneficial for accurate prediction of Vss using decision trees if prior feature selection is applied. Decision tree based models presented in this work have an accuracy that is reasonable and similar to the accuracy of reported Vss inter-species extrapolations in the literature. The estimation of Vss for new compounds in drug discovery will benefit from methods that are able to integrate large and varied sources of data and flexible non-linear data mining methods such as decision trees, which can produce interpretable models. Graphical AbstractDecision trees for the prediction of tissue partition coefficient and volume of distribution of drugs.
Using Dominance Analysis to Determine Predictor Importance in Logistic Regression
Azen, Razia; Traxel, Nicole
2009-01-01
This article proposes an extension of dominance analysis that allows researchers to determine the relative importance of predictors in logistic regression models. Criteria for choosing logistic regression R[superscript 2] analogues were determined and measures were selected that can be used to perform dominance analysis in logistic regression. A…
Posbist fault tree analysis of coherent systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huang, H.-Z.; Tong Xin; Zuo, Ming J.
2004-01-01
When the failure probability of a system is extremely small or necessary statistical data from the system is scarce, it is very difficult or impossible to evaluate its reliability and safety with conventional fault tree analysis (FTA) techniques. New techniques are needed to predict and diagnose such a system's failures and evaluate its reliability and safety. In this paper, we first provide a concise overview of FTA. Then, based on the posbist reliability theory, event failure behavior is characterized in the context of possibility measures and the structure function of the posbist fault tree of a coherent system is defined. In addition, we define the AND operator and the OR operator based on the minimal cut of a posbist fault tree. Finally, a model of posbist fault tree analysis (posbist FTA) of coherent systems is presented. The use of the model for quantitative analysis is demonstrated with a real-life safety system
Fault tree analysis of a research reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hall, J.A.; O'Dacre, D.F.; Chenier, R.J.; Arbique, G.M.
1986-08-01
Fault Tree Analysis Techniques have been used to assess the safety system of the ZED-2 Research Reactor at the Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories. This turned out to be a strong test of the techniques involved. The resulting fault tree was large and because of inter-links in the system structure the tree was not modularized. In addition, comprehensive documentation was required. After a brief overview of the reactor and the analysis, this paper concentrates on the computer tools that made the job work. Two types of tools were needed; text editing and forms management capability for large volumes of component and system data, and the fault tree codes themselves. The solutions (and failures) are discussed along with the tools we are already developing for the next analysis
Mazenq, Julie; Dubus, Jean-Christophe; Gaudart, Jean; Charpin, Denis; Viudes, Gilles; Noel, Guilhem
2017-11-01
Particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone are recognized as the three pollutants that most significantly affect human health. Asthma is a multifactorial disease. However, the place of residence has rarely been investigated. We compared the impact of air pollution, measured near patients' homes, on emergency department (ED) visits for asthma or trauma (controls) within the Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur region. Variables were selected using classification and regression trees on asthmatic and control population, 3-99 years, visiting ED from January 1 to December 31, 2013. Then in a nested case control study, randomization was based on the day of ED visit and on defined age groups. Pollution, meteorological, pollens and viral data measured that day were linked to the patient's ZIP code. A total of 794,884 visits were reported including 6250 for asthma and 278,192 for trauma. Factors associated with an excess risk of emergency visit for asthma included short-term exposure to NO 2 , female gender, high viral load and a combination of low temperature and high humidity. Short-term exposures to high NO 2 concentrations, as assessed close to the homes of the patients, were significantly associated with asthma-related ED visits in children and adults. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Differential Diagnosis of Erythmato-Squamous Diseases Using Classification and Regression Tree.
Maghooli, Keivan; Langarizadeh, Mostafa; Shahmoradi, Leila; Habibi-Koolaee, Mahdi; Jebraeily, Mohamad; Bouraghi, Hamid
2016-10-01
Differential diagnosis of Erythmato-Squamous Diseases (ESD) is a major challenge in the field of dermatology. The ESD diseases are placed into six different classes. Data mining is the process for detection of hidden patterns. In the case of ESD, data mining help us to predict the diseases. Different algorithms were developed for this purpose. we aimed to use the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) to predict differential diagnosis of ESD. we used the Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) methodology. For this purpose, the dermatology data set from machine learning repository, UCI was obtained. The Clementine 12.0 software from IBM Company was used for modelling. In order to evaluation of the model we calculate the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the model. The proposed model had an accuracy of 94.84% (. 24.42) in order to correct prediction of the ESD disease. Results indicated that using of this classifier could be useful. But, it would be strongly recommended that the combination of machine learning methods could be more useful in terms of prediction of ESD.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I GEDE AGUS JIWADIANA
2015-11-01
Full Text Available The aim of this research is to determine the classification characteristics of traffic accidents in Denpasar city in January-July 2014 by using Classification And Regression Trees (CART. Then, for determine the explanatory variables into the main classifier of CART. The result showed that optimum CART generate three terminal node. First terminal node, there are 12 people were classified as heavy traffic accident characteritics with single accident, and second terminal nodes, there are 68 people were classified as minor traffic accident characteristics by type of traffic accident front-rear, front-front, front-side, pedestrians, side-side and location of traffic accident in district road and sub-district road. For third terminal node, there are 291 people were classified as medium traffic accident characteristics by type of traffic accident front-rear, front-front, front-side, pedestrians, side-side and location of traffic accident in municipality road and explanatory variables into the main splitter to make of CART is type of traffic accident with maximum homogeneity measure of 0.03252.
Estimating carbon and showing impacts of drought using satellite data in regression-tree models
Boyte, Stephen; Wylie, Bruce K.; Howard, Danny; Dahal, Devendra; Gilmanov, Tagir G.
2018-01-01
Integrating spatially explicit biogeophysical and remotely sensed data into regression-tree models enables the spatial extrapolation of training data over large geographic spaces, allowing a better understanding of broad-scale ecosystem processes. The current study presents annual gross primary production (GPP) and annual ecosystem respiration (RE) for 2000–2013 in several short-statured vegetation types using carbon flux data from towers that are located strategically across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We calculate carbon fluxes (annual net ecosystem production [NEP]) for each year in our study period, which includes 2012 when drought and higher-than-normal temperatures influence vegetation productivity in large parts of the study area. We present and analyse carbon flux dynamics in the CONUS to better understand how drought affects GPP, RE, and NEP. Model accuracy metrics show strong correlation coefficients (r) (r ≥ 94%) between training and estimated data for both GPP and RE. Overall, average annual GPP, RE, and NEP are relatively constant throughout the study period except during 2012 when almost 60% less carbon is sequestered than normal. These results allow us to conclude that this modelling method effectively estimates carbon dynamics through time and allows the exploration of impacts of meteorological anomalies and vegetation types on carbon dynamics.
Xie, Yang; Schreier, Günter; Chang, David C W; Neubauer, Sandra; Redmond, Stephen J; Lovell, Nigel H
2014-01-01
Healthcare administrators worldwide are striving to both lower the cost of care whilst improving the quality of care given. Therefore, better clinical and administrative decision making is needed to improve these issues. Anticipating outcomes such as number of hospitalization days could contribute to addressing this problem. In this paper, a method was developed, using large-scale health insurance claims data, to predict the number of hospitalization days in a population. We utilized a regression decision tree algorithm, along with insurance claim data from 300,000 individuals over three years, to provide predictions of number of days in hospital in the third year, based on medical admissions and claims data from the first two years. Our method performs well in the general population. For the population aged 65 years and over, the predictive model significantly improves predictions over a baseline method (predicting a constant number of days for each patient), and achieved a specificity of 70.20% and sensitivity of 75.69% in classifying these subjects into two categories of 'no hospitalization' and 'at least one day in hospital'.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jafri, Y.Z.; Kamal, L.
2007-01-01
Various statistical techniques was used on five-year data from 1998-2002 of average humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The relationships to regression analysis time series (RATS) were developed for determining the overall trend of these climate parameters on the basis of which forecast models can be corrected and modified. We computed the coefficient of determination as a measure of goodness of fit, to our polynomial regression analysis time series (PRATS). The correlation to multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression analysis time series (MLRATS) were also developed for deciphering the interdependence of weather parameters. Spearman's rand correlation and Goldfeld-Quandt test were used to check the uniformity or non-uniformity of variances in our fit to polynomial regression (PR). The Breusch-Pagan test was applied to MLR and MLRATS, respectively which yielded homoscedasticity. We also employed Bartlett's test for homogeneity of variances on a five-year data of rainfall and humidity, respectively which showed that the variances in rainfall data were not homogenous while in case of humidity, were homogenous. Our results on regression and regression analysis time series show the best fit to prediction modeling on climatic data of Quetta, Pakistan. (author)
Cafts: computer aided fault tree analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Poucet, A.
1985-01-01
The fault tree technique has become a standard tool for the analysis of safety and reliability of complex system. In spite of the costs, which may be high for a complete and detailed analysis of a complex plant, the fault tree technique is popular and its benefits are fully recognized. Due to this applications of these codes have mostly been restricted to simple academic examples and rarely concern complex, real world systems. In this paper an interactive approach to fault tree construction is presented. The aim is not to replace the analyst, but to offer him an intelligent tool which can assist him in modeling complex systems. Using the CAFTS-method, the analyst interactively constructs a fault tree in two phases: (1) In a first phase he generates an overall failure logic structure of the system; the macrofault tree. In this phase, CAFTS features an expert system approach to assist the analyst. It makes use of a knowledge base containing generic rules on the behavior of subsystems and components; (2) In a second phase the macrofault tree is further refined and transformed in a fully detailed and quantified fault tree. In this phase a library of plant-specific component failure models is used
Distance Based Root Cause Analysis and Change Impact Analysis of Performance Regressions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Junzan Zhou
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Performance regression testing is applied to uncover both performance and functional problems of software releases. A performance problem revealed by performance testing can be high response time, low throughput, or even being out of service. Mature performance testing process helps systematically detect software performance problems. However, it is difficult to identify the root cause and evaluate the potential change impact. In this paper, we present an approach leveraging server side logs for identifying root causes of performance problems. Firstly, server side logs are used to recover call tree of each business transaction. We define a novel distance based metric computed from call trees for root cause analysis and apply inverted index from methods to business transactions for change impact analysis. Empirical studies show that our approach can effectively and efficiently help developers diagnose root cause of performance problems.
Kadiyala, Akhil; Kaur, Devinder; Kumar, Ashok
2013-02-01
The present study developed a novel approach to modeling indoor air quality (IAQ) of a public transportation bus by the development of hybrid genetic-algorithm-based neural networks (also known as evolutionary neural networks) with input variables optimized from using the regression trees, referred as the GART approach. This study validated the applicability of the GART modeling approach in solving complex nonlinear systems by accurately predicting the monitored contaminants of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), 0.3-0.4 microm sized particle numbers, 0.4-0.5 microm sized particle numbers, particulate matter (PM) concentrations less than 1.0 microm (PM10), and PM concentrations less than 2.5 microm (PM2.5) inside a public transportation bus operating on 20% grade biodiesel in Toledo, OH. First, the important variables affecting each monitored in-bus contaminant were determined using regression trees. Second, the analysis of variance was used as a complimentary sensitivity analysis to the regression tree results to determine a subset of statistically significant variables affecting each monitored in-bus contaminant. Finally, the identified subsets of statistically significant variables were used as inputs to develop three artificial neural network (ANN) models. The models developed were regression tree-based back-propagation network (BPN-RT), regression tree-based radial basis function network (RBFN-RT), and GART models. Performance measures were used to validate the predictive capacity of the developed IAQ models. The results from this approach were compared with the results obtained from using a theoretical approach and a generalized practicable approach to modeling IAQ that included the consideration of additional independent variables when developing the aforementioned ANN models. The hybrid GART models were able to capture majority of the variance in the monitored in-bus contaminants. The genetic
Andrew T. Hudak; Nicholas L. Crookston; Jeffrey S. Evans; Michael K. Falkowski; Alistair M. S. Smith; Paul E. Gessler; Penelope Morgan
2006-01-01
We compared the utility of discrete-return light detection and ranging (lidar) data and multispectral satellite imagery, and their integration, for modeling and mapping basal area and tree density across two diverse coniferous forest landscapes in north-central Idaho. We applied multiple linear regression models subset from a suite of 26 predictor variables derived...
Jakubowski, J.; Stypulkowski, J. B.; Bernardeau, F. G.
2017-12-01
The first phase of the Abu Hamour drainage and storm tunnel was completed in early 2017. The 9.5 km long, 3.7 m diameter tunnel was excavated with two Earth Pressure Balance (EPB) Tunnel Boring Machines from Herrenknecht. TBM operation processes were monitored and recorded by Data Acquisition and Evaluation System. The authors coupled collected TBM drive data with available information on rock mass properties, cleansed, completed with secondary variables and aggregated by weeks and shifts. Correlations and descriptive statistics charts were examined. Multivariate Linear Regression and CART regression tree models linking TBM penetration rate (PR), penetration per revolution (PPR) and field penetration index (FPI) with TBM operational and geotechnical characteristics were performed for the conditions of the weak/soft rock of Doha. Both regression methods are interpretable and the data were screened with different computational approaches allowing enriched insight. The primary goal of the analysis was to investigate empirical relations between multiple explanatory and responding variables, to search for best subsets of explanatory variables and to evaluate the strength of linear and non-linear relations. For each of the penetration indices, a predictive model coupling both regression methods was built and validated. The resultant models appeared to be stronger than constituent ones and indicated an opportunity for more accurate and robust TBM performance predictions.
Amini, Payam; Maroufizadeh, Saman; Samani, Reza Omani; Hamidi, Omid; Sepidarkish, Mahdi
2017-06-01
Preterm birth (PTB) is a leading cause of neonatal death and the second biggest cause of death in children under five years of age. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of PTB and its associated factors using logistic regression and decision tree classification methods. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 4,415 pregnant women in Tehran, Iran, from July 6-21, 2015. Data were collected by a researcher-developed questionnaire through interviews with mothers and review of their medical records. To evaluate the accuracy of the logistic regression and decision tree methods, several indices such as sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the curve were used. The PTB rate was 5.5% in this study. The logistic regression outperformed the decision tree for the classification of PTB based on risk factors. Logistic regression showed that multiple pregnancies, mothers with preeclampsia, and those who conceived with assisted reproductive technology had an increased risk for PTB ( p logistic regression model for the classification of risk groups for PTB.
Regression analysis of sparse asynchronous longitudinal data.
Cao, Hongyuan; Zeng, Donglin; Fine, Jason P
2015-09-01
We consider estimation of regression models for sparse asynchronous longitudinal observations, where time-dependent responses and covariates are observed intermittently within subjects. Unlike with synchronous data, where the response and covariates are observed at the same time point, with asynchronous data, the observation times are mismatched. Simple kernel-weighted estimating equations are proposed for generalized linear models with either time invariant or time-dependent coefficients under smoothness assumptions for the covariate processes which are similar to those for synchronous data. For models with either time invariant or time-dependent coefficients, the estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal but converge at slower rates than those achieved with synchronous data. Simulation studies evidence that the methods perform well with realistic sample sizes and may be superior to a naive application of methods for synchronous data based on an ad hoc last value carried forward approach. The practical utility of the methods is illustrated on data from a study on human immunodeficiency virus.
Kaskhedikar, Apoorva Prakash
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, commercial buildings represent about 40% of the United State's energy consumption of which office buildings consume a major portion. Gauging the extent to which an individual building consumes energy in excess of its peers is the first step in initiating energy efficiency improvement. Energy Benchmarking offers initial building energy performance assessment without rigorous evaluation. Energy benchmarking tools based on the Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) database are investigated in this thesis. This study proposes a new benchmarking methodology based on decision trees, where a relationship between the energy use intensities (EUI) and building parameters (continuous and categorical) is developed for different building types. This methodology was applied to medium office and school building types contained in the CBECS database. The Random Forest technique was used to find the most influential parameters that impact building energy use intensities. Subsequently, correlations which were significant were identified between EUIs and CBECS variables. Other than floor area, some of the important variables were number of workers, location, number of PCs and main cooling equipment. The coefficient of variation was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the new model. The customization technique proposed in this thesis was compared with another benchmarking model that is widely used by building owners and designers namely, the ENERGY STAR's Portfolio Manager. This tool relies on the standard Linear Regression methods which is only able to handle continuous variables. The model proposed uses data mining technique and was found to perform slightly better than the Portfolio Manager. The broader impacts of the new benchmarking methodology proposed is that it allows for identifying important categorical variables, and then incorporating them in a local, as against a global, model framework for EUI
Aguiar, Fabio S; Almeida, Luciana L; Ruffino-Netto, Antonio; Kritski, Afranio Lineu; Mello, Fernanda Cq; Werneck, Guilherme L
2012-08-07
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health issue worldwide. The lack of specific clinical symptoms to diagnose TB makes the correct decision to admit patients to respiratory isolation a difficult task for the clinician. Isolation of patients without the disease is common and increases health costs. Decision models for the diagnosis of TB in patients attending hospitals can increase the quality of care and decrease costs, without the risk of hospital transmission. We present a predictive model for predicting pulmonary TB in hospitalized patients in a high prevalence area in order to contribute to a more rational use of isolation rooms without increasing the risk of transmission. Cross sectional study of patients admitted to CFFH from March 2003 to December 2004. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was generated and validated. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were used to evaluate the performance of model. Validation of the model was performed with a different sample of patients admitted to the same hospital from January to December 2005. We studied 290 patients admitted with clinical suspicion of TB. Diagnosis was confirmed in 26.5% of them. Pulmonary TB was present in 83.7% of the patients with TB (62.3% with positive sputum smear) and HIV/AIDS was present in 56.9% of patients. The validated CART model showed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 60.00%, 76.16%, 33.33%, and 90.55%, respectively. The AUC was 79.70%. The CART model developed for these hospitalized patients with clinical suspicion of TB had fair to good predictive performance for pulmonary TB. The most important variable for prediction of TB diagnosis was chest radiograph results. Prospective validation is still necessary, but our model offer an alternative for decision making in whether to isolate patients with clinical suspicion of TB in tertiary health facilities in
Fault tree analysis: concepts and techniques
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fussell, J.B.
1976-01-01
Concepts and techniques of fault tree analysis have been developed over the past decade and now predictions from this type analysis are important considerations in the design of many systems such as aircraft, ships and their electronic systems, missiles, and nuclear reactor systems. Routine, hardware-oriented fault tree construction can be automated; however, considerable effort is needed in this area to get the methodology into production status. When this status is achieved, the entire analysis of hardware systems will be automated except for the system definition step. Automated analysis is not undesirable; to the contrary, when verified on adequately complex systems, automated analysis could well become a routine analysis. It could also provide an excellent start for a more in-depth fault tree analysis that includes environmental effects, common mode failure, and human errors. The automated analysis is extremely fast and frees the analyst from the routine hardware-oriented fault tree construction, as well as eliminates logic errors and errors of oversight in this part of the analysis. Automated analysis then affords the analyst a powerful tool to allow his prime efforts to be devoted to unearthing more subtle aspects of the modes of failure of the system
Commercial application of fault tree analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crosetti, P.A.; Bruce, R.A.
1970-01-01
The potential for general application of Fault Tree Analysis to commercial products appears attractive based not only on the successful extension from the aerospace safety technology to the nuclear reactor reliability and availability technology, but also because combinatorial hazards are common to commercial operations and therefore lend themselves readily to evaluation by Fault Tree Analysis. It appears reasonable to conclude that the technique has application within the commercial industrial community where the occurrence of a specified consequence or final event would be of sufficient concern to management to justify such a rigorous analysis as an aid to decision making. (U.S.)
Comprehensive database of diameter-based biomass regressions for North American tree species
Jennifer C. Jenkins; David C. Chojnacky; Linda S. Heath; Richard A. Birdsey
2004-01-01
A database consisting of 2,640 equations compiled from the literature for predicting the biomass of trees and tree components from diameter measurements of species found in North America. Bibliographic information, geographic locations, diameter limits, diameter and biomass units, equation forms, statistical errors, and coefficients are provided for each equation,...
Deconinck, E; Zhang, M H; Petitet, F; Dubus, E; Ijjaali, I; Coomans, D; Vander Heyden, Y
2008-02-18
The use of some unconventional non-linear modeling techniques, i.e. classification and regression trees and multivariate adaptive regression splines-based methods, was explored to model the blood-brain barrier (BBB) passage of drugs and drug-like molecules. The data set contains BBB passage values for 299 structural and pharmacological diverse drugs, originating from a structured knowledge-based database. Models were built using boosted regression trees (BRT) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), as well as their respective combinations with stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR) and partial least squares (PLS) regression in two-step approaches. The best models were obtained using combinations of MARS with either stepwise MLR or PLS. It could be concluded that the use of combinations of a linear with a non-linear modeling technique results in some improved properties compared to the individual linear and non-linear models and that, when the use of such a combination is appropriate, combinations using MARS as non-linear technique should be preferred over those with BRT, due to some serious drawbacks of the BRT approaches.
Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong
2004-07-01
This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard.
Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong
2004-07-01
This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard
Ebrahimzadeh, Farzad; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Vahabi, Nasim; Almasian, Mohammad; Bakhteyar, Katayoon
2015-01-01
Unwanted pregnancy not intended by at least one of the parents has undesirable consequences for the family and the society. In the present study, three classification models were used and compared to predict unwanted pregnancies in an urban population. In this cross-sectional study, 887 pregnant mothers referring to health centers in Khorramabad, Iran, in 2012 were selected by the stratified and cluster sampling; relevant variables were measured and for prediction of unwanted pregnancy, logistic regression, discriminant analysis, and probit regression models and SPSS software version 21 were used. To compare these models, indicators such as sensitivity, specificity, the area under the ROC curve, and the percentage of correct predictions were used. The prevalence of unwanted pregnancies was 25.3%. The logistic and probit regression models indicated that parity and pregnancy spacing, contraceptive methods, household income and number of living male children were related to unwanted pregnancy. The performance of the models based on the area under the ROC curve was 0.735, 0.733, and 0.680 for logistic regression, probit regression, and linear discriminant analysis, respectively. Given the relatively high prevalence of unwanted pregnancies in Khorramabad, it seems necessary to revise family planning programs. Despite the similar accuracy of the models, if the researcher is interested in the interpretability of the results, the use of the logistic regression model is recommended.
Takagi, Daisuke; Ikeda, Ken'ichi; Kawachi, Ichiro
2012-11-01
Crime is an important determinant of public health outcomes, including quality of life, mental well-being, and health behavior. A body of research has documented the association between community social capital and crime victimization. The association between social capital and crime victimization has been examined at multiple levels of spatial aggregation, ranging from entire countries, to states, metropolitan areas, counties, and neighborhoods. In multilevel analysis, the spatial boundaries at level 2 are most often drawn from administrative boundaries (e.g., Census tracts in the U.S.). One problem with adopting administrative definitions of neighborhoods is that it ignores spatial spillover. We conducted a study of social capital and crime victimization in one ward of Tokyo city, using a spatial Durbin model with an inverse-distance weighting matrix that assigned each respondent a unique level of "exposure" to social capital based on all other residents' perceptions. The study is based on a postal questionnaire sent to 20-69 years old residents of Arakawa Ward, Tokyo. The response rate was 43.7%. We examined the contextual influence of generalized trust, perceptions of reciprocity, two types of social network variables, as well as two principal components of social capital (constructed from the above four variables). Our outcome measure was self-reported crime victimization in the last five years. In the spatial Durbin model, we found that neighborhood generalized trust, reciprocity, supportive networks and two principal components of social capital were each inversely associated with crime victimization. By contrast, a multilevel regression performed with the same data (using administrative neighborhood boundaries) found generally null associations between neighborhood social capital and crime. Spatial regression methods may be more appropriate for investigating the contextual influence of social capital in homogeneous cultural settings such as Japan. Copyright
Preliminary hazard analysis using sequence tree method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huang Huiwen; Shih Chunkuan; Hung Hungchih; Chen Minghuei; Yih Swu; Lin Jiinming
2007-01-01
A system level PHA using sequence tree method was developed to perform Safety Related digital I and C system SSA. The conventional PHA is a brainstorming session among experts on various portions of the system to identify hazards through discussions. However, this conventional PHA is not a systematic technique, the analysis results strongly depend on the experts' subjective opinions. The analysis quality cannot be appropriately controlled. Thereby, this research developed a system level sequence tree based PHA, which can clarify the relationship among the major digital I and C systems. Two major phases are included in this sequence tree based technique. The first phase uses a table to analyze each event in SAR Chapter 15 for a specific safety related I and C system, such as RPS. The second phase uses sequence tree to recognize what I and C systems are involved in the event, how the safety related systems work, and how the backup systems can be activated to mitigate the consequence if the primary safety systems fail. In the sequence tree, the defense-in-depth echelons, including Control echelon, Reactor trip echelon, ESFAS echelon, and Indication and display echelon, are arranged to construct the sequence tree structure. All the related I and C systems, include digital system and the analog back-up systems are allocated in their specific echelon. By this system centric sequence tree based analysis, not only preliminary hazard can be identified systematically, the vulnerability of the nuclear power plant can also be recognized. Therefore, an effective simplified D3 evaluation can be performed as well. (author)
Preface to Berk's "Regression Analysis: A Constructive Critique"
de Leeuw, Jan
2003-01-01
It is pleasure to write a preface for the book ”Regression Analysis” of my fellow series editor Dick Berk. And it is a pleasure in particular because the book is about regression analysis, the most popular and the most fundamental technique in applied statistics. And because it is critical of the way regression analysis is used in the sciences, in particular in the social and behavioral sciences. Although the book can be read as an introduction to regression analysis, it can also be read as a...
Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Solhjouy-fard, Samaneh
2017-08-01
The aim of this study was to have a comparative investigation and evaluation of the capabilities of correlative and mechanistic modeling processes, applied to the projection of future distributions of date palm in novel environments and to establish a method of minimizing uncertainty in the projections of differing techniques. The location of this study on a global scale is in Middle Eastern Countries. We compared the mechanistic model CLIMEX (CL) with the correlative models MaxEnt (MX), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and Random Forests (RF) to project current and future distributions of date palm ( Phoenix dactylifera L.). The Global Climate Model (GCM), the CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) using the A2 emissions scenario, was selected for making projections. Both indigenous and alien distribution data of the species were utilized in the modeling process. The common areas predicted by MX, BRT, RF, and CL from the CS GCM were extracted and compared to ascertain projection uncertainty levels of each individual technique. The common areas identified by all four modeling techniques were used to produce a map indicating suitable and unsuitable areas for date palm cultivation for Middle Eastern countries, for the present and the year 2100. The four different modeling approaches predict fairly different distributions. Projections from CL were more conservative than from MX. The BRT and RF were the most conservative methods in terms of projections for the current time. The combination of the final CL and MX projections for the present and 2100 provide higher certainty concerning those areas that will become highly suitable for future date palm cultivation. According to the four models, cold, hot, and wet stress, with differences on a regional basis, appears to be the major restrictions on future date palm distribution. The results demonstrate variances in the projections, resulting from different techniques. The assessment and interpretation of model projections requires reservations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aguiar Fabio S
2012-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB remains a public health issue worldwide. The lack of specific clinical symptoms to diagnose TB makes the correct decision to admit patients to respiratory isolation a difficult task for the clinician. Isolation of patients without the disease is common and increases health costs. Decision models for the diagnosis of TB in patients attending hospitals can increase the quality of care and decrease costs, without the risk of hospital transmission. We present a predictive model for predicting pulmonary TB in hospitalized patients in a high prevalence area in order to contribute to a more rational use of isolation rooms without increasing the risk of transmission. Methods Cross sectional study of patients admitted to CFFH from March 2003 to December 2004. A classification and regression tree (CART model was generated and validated. The area under the ROC curve (AUC, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were used to evaluate the performance of model. Validation of the model was performed with a different sample of patients admitted to the same hospital from January to December 2005. Results We studied 290 patients admitted with clinical suspicion of TB. Diagnosis was confirmed in 26.5% of them. Pulmonary TB was present in 83.7% of the patients with TB (62.3% with positive sputum smear and HIV/AIDS was present in 56.9% of patients. The validated CART model showed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 60.00%, 76.16%, 33.33%, and 90.55%, respectively. The AUC was 79.70%. Conclusions The CART model developed for these hospitalized patients with clinical suspicion of TB had fair to good predictive performance for pulmonary TB. The most important variable for prediction of TB diagnosis was chest radiograph results. Prospective validation is still necessary, but our model offer an alternative for decision making in whether to isolate patients with
Multiple Additive Regression Trees a Methodology for Predictive Data Mining for Fraud Detection
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
da
2002-01-01
...) is using new and innovative techniques for fraud detection. Their primary techniques for fraud detection are the data mining tools of classification trees and neural networks as well as methods for pooling the results of multiple model fits...
Hecht, Jeffrey B.
The analysis of regression residuals and detection of outliers are discussed, with emphasis on determining how deviant an individual data point must be to be considered an outlier and the impact that multiple suspected outlier data points have on the process of outlier determination and treatment. Only bivariate (one dependent and one independent)…
Simulation Experiments in Practice: Statistical Design and Regression Analysis
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2007-01-01
In practice, simulation analysts often change only one factor at a time, and use graphical analysis of the resulting Input/Output (I/O) data. The goal of this article is to change these traditional, naïve methods of design and analysis, because statistical theory proves that more information is obtained when applying Design Of Experiments (DOE) and linear regression analysis. Unfortunately, classic DOE and regression analysis assume a single simulation response that is normally and independen...
Liu, Yang; Lü, Yi-he; Zheng, Hai-feng; Chen, Li-ding
2010-05-01
Based on the 10-day SPOT VEGETATION NDVI data and the daily meteorological data from 1998 to 2007 in Yan' an City, the main meteorological variables affecting the annual and interannual variations of NDVI were determined by using regression tree. It was found that the effects of test meteorological variables on the variability of NDVI differed with seasons and time lags. Temperature and precipitation were the most important meteorological variables affecting the annual variation of NDVI, and the average highest temperature was the most important meteorological variable affecting the inter-annual variation of NDVI. Regression tree was very powerful in determining the key meteorological variables affecting NDVI variation, but could not build quantitative relations between NDVI and meteorological variables, which limited its further and wider application.
Fault tree analysis for vital area identification
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Varnado, G.B.; Ortiz, N.R.
1978-01-01
The use of fault tree analysis techniques to systematically identify (1) the sabotage events which can lead to release of significant quantities of radioactive materials, (2) the areas of the nuclear power plant in which the sabotage events can be accomplished, and (3) the areas of the plant which must be protected to assure that release does not occur are discussed
Fault tree analysis for urban flooding
Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Clemens, F.H.L.R.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.
2008-01-01
Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to
Event tree analysis using artificial intelligence techniques
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dixon, B.W.; Hinton, M.F.
1985-01-01
Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques used in Expert Systems and Object Oriented Programming are discussed as they apply to Event Tree Analysis. A SeQUence IMPortance calculator, SQUIMP, is presented to demonstrate the implementation of these techniques. Benefits of using AI methods include ease of programming, efficiency of execution, and flexibility of application. The importance of an appropriate user interface is stressed. 5 figs
Computer-aided Fault Tree Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Willie, R.R.
1978-08-01
A computer-oriented methodology for deriving minimal cut and path set families associated with arbitrary fault trees is discussed first. Then the use of the Fault Tree Analysis Program (FTAP), an extensive FORTRAN computer package that implements the methodology is described. An input fault tree to FTAP may specify the system state as any logical function of subsystem or component state variables or complements of these variables. When fault tree logical relations involve complements of state variables, the analyst may instruct FTAP to produce a family of prime implicants, a generalization of the minimal cut set concept. FTAP can also identify certain subsystems associated with the tree as system modules and provide a collection of minimal cut set families that essentially expresses the state of the system as a function of these module state variables. Another FTAP feature allows a subfamily to be obtained when the family of minimal cut sets or prime implicants is too large to be found in its entirety; this subfamily consists only of sets that are interesting to the analyst in a special sense
General Nature of Multicollinearity in Multiple Regression Analysis.
Liu, Richard
1981-01-01
Discusses multiple regression, a very popular statistical technique in the field of education. One of the basic assumptions in regression analysis requires that independent variables in the equation should not be highly correlated. The problem of multicollinearity and some of the solutions to it are discussed. (Author)
application of multilinear regression analysis in modeling of soil
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Windows User
Accordingly [1, 3] in their work, they applied linear regression ... (MLRA) is a statistical technique that uses several explanatory ... order to check this, they adopted bivariate correlation analysis .... groups, namely A-1 through A-7, based on their relative expected ..... Multivariate Regression in Gorgan Province North of Iran” ...
Failure diagnosis and fault tree analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weber, G.
1982-07-01
In this report a methodology of failure diagnosis for complex systems is presented. Systems which can be represented by fault trees are considered. This methodology is based on switching algebra, failure diagnosis of digital circuits and fault tree analysis. Relations between these disciplines are shown. These relations are due to Boolean algebra and Boolean functions used throughout. It will be shown on this basis that techniques of failure diagnosis and fault tree analysis are useful to solve the following problems: 1. describe an efficient search of all failed components if the system is failed. 2. Describe an efficient search of all states which are close to a system failure if the system is still operating. The first technique will improve the availability, the second the reliability and safety. For these problems, the relation to methods of failure diagnosis for combinational circuits is required. Moreover, the techniques are demonstrated for a number of systems which can be represented by fault trees. (orig./RW) [de
Moderation analysis using a two-level regression model.
Yuan, Ke-Hai; Cheng, Ying; Maxwell, Scott
2014-10-01
Moderation analysis is widely used in social and behavioral research. The most commonly used model for moderation analysis is moderated multiple regression (MMR) in which the explanatory variables of the regression model include product terms, and the model is typically estimated by least squares (LS). This paper argues for a two-level regression model in which the regression coefficients of a criterion variable on predictors are further regressed on moderator variables. An algorithm for estimating the parameters of the two-level model by normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) is developed. Formulas for the standard errors (SEs) of the parameter estimates are provided and studied. Results indicate that, when heteroscedasticity exists, NML with the two-level model gives more efficient and more accurate parameter estimates than the LS analysis of the MMR model. When error variances are homoscedastic, NML with the two-level model leads to essentially the same results as LS with the MMR model. Most importantly, the two-level regression model permits estimating the percentage of variance of each regression coefficient that is due to moderator variables. When applied to data from General Social Surveys 1991, NML with the two-level model identified a significant moderation effect of race on the regression of job prestige on years of education while LS with the MMR model did not. An R package is also developed and documented to facilitate the application of the two-level model.
A comparative study of multiple regression analysis and back ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Abhijit Sarkar
artificial neural network (ANN) models to predict weld bead geometry and HAZ width in submerged arc welding ... Keywords. Submerged arc welding (SAW); multi-regression analysis (MRA); artificial neural network ..... Degree of freedom.
The evolution of GDP in USA using cyclic regression analysis
Catalin Angelo IOAN; Gina IOAN
2013-01-01
Based on the four major types of economic cycles (Kondratieff, Juglar, Kitchin, Kuznet), the paper aims to determine their actual length (for the U.S. economy) using cyclic regressions based on Fourier analysis.
On two flexible methods of 2-dimensional regression analysis
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Volf, Petr
2012-01-01
Roč. 18, č. 4 (2012), s. 154-164 ISSN 1803-9782 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/10/2045 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : regression analysis * Gordon surface * prediction error * projection pursuit Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/SI/volf-on two flexible methods of 2-dimensional regression analysis.pdf
Least Squares Adjustment: Linear and Nonlinear Weighted Regression Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg
2007-01-01
This note primarily describes the mathematics of least squares regression analysis as it is often used in geodesy including land surveying and satellite positioning applications. In these fields regression is often termed adjustment. The note also contains a couple of typical land surveying...... and satellite positioning application examples. In these application areas we are typically interested in the parameters in the model typically 2- or 3-D positions and not in predictive modelling which is often the main concern in other regression analysis applications. Adjustment is often used to obtain...... the clock error) and to obtain estimates of the uncertainty with which the position is determined. Regression analysis is used in many other fields of application both in the natural, the technical and the social sciences. Examples may be curve fitting, calibration, establishing relationships between...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bou Kheir, Rania; Shomar, B.; Greve, Mogens Humlekrog
2014-01-01
Soil heavy metal pollution has been and continues to be a worldwide phenomenon that has attracted a great deal of attention from governments and regulatory bodies. In this context, our study used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and regression-tree modeling (196 trees) to precisely quantify...... the relationships between four toxic heavy metals (Ni, Cr, Cd and As) and sixteen environmental parameters (e.g., parent material, slope gradient, proximity to roads, etc.) in the soils of northern Lebanon (as a case study of Mediterranean landscapes), and to detect the most important parameters that can be used...... between 68% and 100%), surroundings of waste areas (48 – 92%), proximity to roads (45 – 82%) and parent materials (57 – 73%) considerably influenced all investigated heavy metals, which is not the case of hydromorphological and soil properties. For instance, hydraulic conductivity (18 – 41%) and pH (23...
Dyer, Betsey D.; Kahn, Michael J.; LeBlanc, Mark D.
2008-01-01
Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was applied to genome-wide tetranucleotide frequencies (genomic signatures) of 195 archaea and bacteria. Although genomic signatures have typically been used to classify evolutionary divergence, in this study, convergent evolution was the focus. Temperature optima for most of the organisms examined could be distinguished by CART analyses of tetranucleotide frequencies. This suggests that pervasive (nonlinear) qualities of genomes may reflect certain environmental conditions (such as temperature) in which those genomes evolved. The predominant use of GAGA and AGGA as the discriminating tetramers in CART models suggests that purine-loading and codon biases of thermophiles may explain some of the results. PMID:19054742
Homer, Collin G.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Schell, Spencer J.
2012-01-01
agebrush ecosystems in North America have experienced extensive degradation since European settlement. Further degradation continues from exotic invasive plants, altered fire frequency, intensive grazing practices, oil and gas development, and climate change – adding urgency to the need for ecosystem-wide understanding. Remote sensing is often identified as a key information source to facilitate ecosystem-wide characterization, monitoring, and analysis; however, approaches that characterize sagebrush with sufficient and accurate local detail across large enough areas to support this paradigm are unavailable. We describe the development of a new remote sensing sagebrush characterization approach for the state of Wyoming, U.S.A. This approach integrates 2.4 m QuickBird, 30 m Landsat TM, and 56 m AWiFS imagery into the characterization of four primary continuous field components including percent bare ground, percent herbaceous cover, percent litter, and percent shrub, and four secondary components including percent sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), percent big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), percent Wyoming sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Wyomingensis), and shrub height using a regression tree. According to an independent accuracy assessment, primary component root mean square error (RMSE) values ranged from 4.90 to 10.16 for 2.4 m QuickBird, 6.01 to 15.54 for 30 m Landsat, and 6.97 to 16.14 for 56 m AWiFS. Shrub and herbaceous components outperformed the current data standard called LANDFIRE, with a shrub RMSE value of 6.04 versus 12.64 and a herbaceous component RMSE value of 12.89 versus 14.63. This approach offers new advancements in sagebrush characterization from remote sensing and provides a foundation to quantitatively monitor these components into the future.
Research and analyze of physical health using multiple regression analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. S. Kyi
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper represents the research which is trying to create a mathematical model of the "healthy people" using the method of regression analysis. The factors are the physical parameters of the person (such as heart rate, lung capacity, blood pressure, breath holding, weight height coefficient, flexibility of the spine, muscles of the shoulder belt, abdominal muscles, squatting, etc.., and the response variable is an indicator of physical working capacity. After performing multiple regression analysis, obtained useful multiple regression models that can predict the physical performance of boys the aged of fourteen to seventeen years. This paper represents the development of regression model for the sixteen year old boys and analyzed results.
Linear regression and sensitivity analysis in nuclear reactor design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kumar, Akansha; Tsvetkov, Pavel V.; McClarren, Ryan G.
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Presented a benchmark for the applicability of linear regression to complex systems. • Applied linear regression to a nuclear reactor power system. • Performed neutronics, thermal–hydraulics, and energy conversion using Brayton’s cycle for the design of a GCFBR. • Performed detailed sensitivity analysis to a set of parameters in a nuclear reactor power system. • Modeled and developed reactor design using MCNP, regression using R, and thermal–hydraulics in Java. - Abstract: The paper presents a general strategy applicable for sensitivity analysis (SA), and uncertainity quantification analysis (UA) of parameters related to a nuclear reactor design. This work also validates the use of linear regression (LR) for predictive analysis in a nuclear reactor design. The analysis helps to determine the parameters on which a LR model can be fit for predictive analysis. For those parameters, a regression surface is created based on trial data and predictions are made using this surface. A general strategy of SA to determine and identify the influential parameters those affect the operation of the reactor is mentioned. Identification of design parameters and validation of linearity assumption for the application of LR of reactor design based on a set of tests is performed. The testing methods used to determine the behavior of the parameters can be used as a general strategy for UA, and SA of nuclear reactor models, and thermal hydraulics calculations. A design of a gas cooled fast breeder reactor (GCFBR), with thermal–hydraulics, and energy transfer has been used for the demonstration of this method. MCNP6 is used to simulate the GCFBR design, and perform the necessary criticality calculations. Java is used to build and run input samples, and to extract data from the output files of MCNP6, and R is used to perform regression analysis and other multivariate variance, and analysis of the collinearity of data
Optimal choice of basis functions in the linear regression analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khotinskij, A.M.
1988-01-01
Problem of optimal choice of basis functions in the linear regression analysis is investigated. Step algorithm with estimation of its efficiency, which holds true at finite number of measurements, is suggested. Conditions, providing the probability of correct choice close to 1 are formulated. Application of the step algorithm to analysis of decay curves is substantiated. 8 refs
Predicting Dropouts of University Freshmen: A Logit Regression Analysis.
Lam, Y. L. Jack
1984-01-01
Stepwise discriminant analysis coupled with logit regression analysis of freshmen data from Brandon University (Manitoba) indicated that six tested variables drawn from research on university dropouts were useful in predicting attrition: student status, residence, financial sources, distance from home town, goal fulfillment, and satisfaction with…
Simulation Experiments in Practice : Statistical Design and Regression Analysis
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2007-01-01
In practice, simulation analysts often change only one factor at a time, and use graphical analysis of the resulting Input/Output (I/O) data. Statistical theory proves that more information is obtained when applying Design Of Experiments (DOE) and linear regression analysis. Unfortunately, classic
Schumacher, Phyllis; Olinsky, Alan; Quinn, John; Smith, Richard
2010-01-01
The authors extended previous research by 2 of the authors who conducted a study designed to predict the successful completion of students enrolled in an actuarial program. They used logistic regression to determine the probability of an actuarial student graduating in the major or dropping out. They compared the results of this study with those…
Background stratified Poisson regression analysis of cohort data.
Richardson, David B; Langholz, Bryan
2012-03-01
Background stratified Poisson regression is an approach that has been used in the analysis of data derived from a variety of epidemiologically important studies of radiation-exposed populations, including uranium miners, nuclear industry workers, and atomic bomb survivors. We describe a novel approach to fit Poisson regression models that adjust for a set of covariates through background stratification while directly estimating the radiation-disease association of primary interest. The approach makes use of an expression for the Poisson likelihood that treats the coefficients for stratum-specific indicator variables as 'nuisance' variables and avoids the need to explicitly estimate the coefficients for these stratum-specific parameters. Log-linear models, as well as other general relative rate models, are accommodated. This approach is illustrated using data from the Life Span Study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors and data from a study of underground uranium miners. The point estimate and confidence interval obtained from this 'conditional' regression approach are identical to the values obtained using unconditional Poisson regression with model terms for each background stratum. Moreover, it is shown that the proposed approach allows estimation of background stratified Poisson regression models of non-standard form, such as models that parameterize latency effects, as well as regression models in which the number of strata is large, thereby overcoming the limitations of previously available statistical software for fitting background stratified Poisson regression models.
Background stratified Poisson regression analysis of cohort data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richardson, David B.; Langholz, Bryan
2012-01-01
Background stratified Poisson regression is an approach that has been used in the analysis of data derived from a variety of epidemiologically important studies of radiation-exposed populations, including uranium miners, nuclear industry workers, and atomic bomb survivors. We describe a novel approach to fit Poisson regression models that adjust for a set of covariates through background stratification while directly estimating the radiation-disease association of primary interest. The approach makes use of an expression for the Poisson likelihood that treats the coefficients for stratum-specific indicator variables as 'nuisance' variables and avoids the need to explicitly estimate the coefficients for these stratum-specific parameters. Log-linear models, as well as other general relative rate models, are accommodated. This approach is illustrated using data from the Life Span Study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors and data from a study of underground uranium miners. The point estimate and confidence interval obtained from this 'conditional' regression approach are identical to the values obtained using unconditional Poisson regression with model terms for each background stratum. Moreover, it is shown that the proposed approach allows estimation of background stratified Poisson regression models of non-standard form, such as models that parameterize latency effects, as well as regression models in which the number of strata is large, thereby overcoming the limitations of previously available statistical software for fitting background stratified Poisson regression models. (orig.)
BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Drummond Alexei J
2007-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models suitable for both within- and between-species sequence data are implemented. Results BEAST version 1.4.6 consists of 81000 lines of Java source code, 779 classes and 81 packages. It provides models for DNA and protein sequence evolution, highly parametric coalescent analysis, relaxed clock phylogenetics, non-contemporaneous sequence data, statistical alignment and a wide range of options for prior distributions. BEAST source code is object-oriented, modular in design and freely available at http://beast-mcmc.googlecode.com/ under the GNU LGPL license. Conclusion BEAST is a powerful and flexible evolutionary analysis package for molecular sequence variation. It also provides a resource for the further development of new models and statistical methods of evolutionary analysis.
Fault tree analysis of KNICS RPS software
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Gee Yong; Kwon, Kee Choon; Koh, Kwang Yong; Jee, Eun Kyoung; Seong, Poong Hyun; Lee, Dae Hyung
2008-01-01
This paper describes the application of a software Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as one of the analysis techniques for a Software Safety Analysis (SSA) at the design phase and its analysis results for the safety-critical software of a digital reactor protection system, which is called the KNICS RPS, being developed in the KNICS (Korea Nuclear Instrumentation and Control Systems) project. The software modules in the design description were represented by Function Blocks (FBs), and the software FTA was performed based on the well-defined fault tree templates for the FBs. The SSA, which is part of the verification and validation (V and V) activities, was activated at each phase of the software lifecycle for the KNICS RPS. At the design phase, the software HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) and the software FTA were employed in the SSA in such a way that the software HAZOP was performed first and then the software FTA was applied. The software FTA was applied to some critical modules selected from the software HAZOP analysis
Fuzzy Uncertainty Evaluation for Fault Tree Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Ki Beom; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
2015-05-15
This traditional probabilistic approach can calculate relatively accurate results. However it requires a long time because of repetitive computation due to the MC method. In addition, when informative data for statistical analysis are not sufficient or some events are mainly caused by human error, the probabilistic approach may not be possible because uncertainties of these events are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions. In order to reduce the computation time and quantify uncertainties of top events when basic events whose uncertainties are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions exist, the fuzzy uncertainty propagation based on fuzzy set theory can be applied. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy uncertainty propagation code and apply the fault tree of the core damage accident after the large loss of coolant accident (LLOCA). The fuzzy uncertainty propagation code is implemented and tested for the fault tree of the radiation release accident. We apply this code to the fault tree of the core damage accident after the LLOCA in three cases and compare the results with those computed by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation using the MC method. The results obtained by the fuzzy uncertainty propagation can be calculated in relatively short time, covering the results obtained by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation.
Automated fault tree analysis: the GRAFTER system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sancaktar, S.; Sharp, D.R.
1985-01-01
An inherent part of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is the construction and analysis of detailed fault trees. For this purpose, a fault tree computer graphics code named GRAFTER has been developed. The code system centers around the GRAFTER code. This code is used interactively to construct, store, update and print fault trees of small or large sizes. The SIMON code is used to provide data for the basic event probabilities. ENCODE is used to process the GRAFTER files to prepare input for the WAMCUT code. WAMCUT is used to quantify the top event probability and to identify the cutsets. This code system has been extensively used in various PRA projects. It has resulted in reduced manpower costs, increased QA capability, ease of documentation and it has simplified sensitivity analyses. Because of its automated nature, it is also suitable for LIVING PRA Studies which require updating and modifications during the lifetime of the plant. Brief descriptions and capabilities of the GRAFTER, SIMON and ENCODE codes are provided; an application of the GRAFTER system is outlined; and conclusions and comments on the code system are given
Dynamic Event Tree Analysis Through RAVEN
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. A. Kinoshita; A. Naviglio
2013-09-01
Conventional Event-Tree (ET) based methodologies are extensively used as tools to perform reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. One of the disadvantages of these methods is that timing/sequencing of events and system dynamics is not explicitly accounted for in the analysis. In order to overcome these limitations several techniques, also know as Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (D-PRA), have been developed. Monte-Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) are two of the most widely used D-PRA methodologies to perform safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In the past two years, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed its own tool to perform Dynamic PRA: RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment). RAVEN has been designed in a high modular and pluggable way in order to enable easy integration of different programming languages (i.e., C++, Python) and coupling with other application including the ones based on the MOOSE framework, developed by INL as well. RAVEN performs two main tasks: 1) control logic driver for the new Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 and 2) post-processing tool. In the first task, RAVEN acts as a deterministic controller in which the set of control logic laws (user defined) monitors the RELAP-7 simulation and controls the activation of specific systems. Moreover, RAVEN also models stochastic events, such as components failures, and performs uncertainty quantification. Such stochastic modeling is employed by using both MC and DET algorithms. In the second task, RAVEN processes the large amount of data generated by RELAP-7 using data-mining based algorithms. This paper focuses on the first task and shows how it is possible to perform the analysis of dynamic stochastic systems using the newly developed RAVEN DET capability. As an example, the Dynamic PRA analysis, using Dynamic Event Tree, of a simplified pressurized water reactor for a Station Black-Out scenario is presented.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
MILAD TAZIK
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Identifying cases in which road crashes result in fatality or injury of drivers may help improve their safety. In this study, datasets of crashes happened in TehranQom freeway, Iran, were examined by three models (multiple logistic regression, Bayesian logistic and classification tree to analyse the contribution of several variables to fatal accidents. For multiple logistic regression and Bayesian logistic models, the odds ratio was calculated for each variable. The model which best suited the identification of accident severity was determined based on AIC and DIC criteria. Based on the results of these two models, rollover crashes (OR = 14.58, %95 CI: 6.8-28.6, not using of seat belt (OR = 5.79, %95 CI: 3.1-9.9, exceeding speed limits (OR = 4.02, %95 CI: 1.8-7.9 and being female (OR = 2.91, %95 CI: 1.1-6.1 were the most important factors in fatalities of drivers. In addition, the results of the classification tree model have verified the findings of the other models.
Power system reliability analysis using fault trees
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Volkanovski, A.; Cepin, M.; Mavko, B.
2006-01-01
The power system reliability analysis method is developed from the aspect of reliable delivery of electrical energy to customers. The method is developed based on the fault tree analysis, which is widely applied in the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The method is adapted for the power system reliability analysis. The method is developed in a way that only the basic reliability parameters of the analysed power system are necessary as an input for the calculation of reliability indices of the system. The modeling and analysis was performed on an example power system consisting of eight substations. The results include the level of reliability of current power system configuration, the combinations of component failures resulting in a failed power delivery to loads, and the importance factors for components and subsystems. (author)
Sparse Regression by Projection and Sparse Discriminant Analysis
Qi, Xin
2015-04-03
© 2015, © American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Interface Foundation of North America. Recent years have seen active developments of various penalized regression methods, such as LASSO and elastic net, to analyze high-dimensional data. In these approaches, the direction and length of the regression coefficients are determined simultaneously. Due to the introduction of penalties, the length of the estimates can be far from being optimal for accurate predictions. We introduce a new framework, regression by projection, and its sparse version to analyze high-dimensional data. The unique nature of this framework is that the directions of the regression coefficients are inferred first, and the lengths and the tuning parameters are determined by a cross-validation procedure to achieve the largest prediction accuracy. We provide a theoretical result for simultaneous model selection consistency and parameter estimation consistency of our method in high dimension. This new framework is then generalized such that it can be applied to principal components analysis, partial least squares, and canonical correlation analysis. We also adapt this framework for discriminant analysis. Compared with the existing methods, where there is relatively little control of the dependency among the sparse components, our method can control the relationships among the components. We present efficient algorithms and related theory for solving the sparse regression by projection problem. Based on extensive simulations and real data analysis, we demonstrate that our method achieves good predictive performance and variable selection in the regression setting, and the ability to control relationships between the sparse components leads to more accurate classification. In supplementary materials available online, the details of the algorithms and theoretical proofs, and R codes for all simulation studies are provided.
Fault tree analysis for reactor systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crosetti, P.A.
1971-01-01
Reliability analysis is playing an increasingly important role in quantitative assessment of system performance for assuring nuclear safety, improving plant performance and plant life, and reducing plant operating costs. The complexity of today's nuclear plants warrant the use of techniques which will provide a comprehensive evaluation of systems in their total context. In particular, fault tree analysis with probability evaluation can play a key role in assuring nuclear safety, in improving plant performance and plant life, and in reducing plant operating costs. The technique provides an all inclusive, versatile mathematical tool for analyzing complex systems. Its application can include a complete plant as well as any of the systems and subsystems. Fault tree analysis provides an objective basis for analyzing system design, performing trade-off studies, analyzing common mode failures, demonstrating compliance with AEC requirements, and justifying system changes or additions. The logic of the approach makes it readily understandable and, therefore, it serves as an effective visibility tool for both engineering and management. (U.S.)
An Original Stepwise Multilevel Logistic Regression Analysis of Discriminatory Accuracy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Merlo, Juan; Wagner, Philippe; Ghith, Nermin
2016-01-01
BACKGROUND AND AIM: Many multilevel logistic regression analyses of "neighbourhood and health" focus on interpreting measures of associations (e.g., odds ratio, OR). In contrast, multilevel analysis of variance is rarely considered. We propose an original stepwise analytical approach that disting...
MULGRES: a computer program for stepwise multiple regression analysis
A. Jeff Martin
1971-01-01
MULGRES is a computer program source deck that is designed for multiple regression analysis employing the technique of stepwise deletion in the search for most significant variables. The features of the program, along with inputs and outputs, are briefly described, with a note on machine compatibility.
Application of multilinear regression analysis in modeling of soil ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The application of Multi-Linear Regression Analysis (MLRA) model for predicting soil properties in Calabar South offers a technical guide and solution in foundation designs problems in the area. Forty-five soil samples were collected from fifteen different boreholes at a different depth and 270 tests were carried out for CBR, ...
Regression Analysis: Instructional Resource for Cost/Managerial Accounting
Stout, David E.
2015-01-01
This paper describes a classroom-tested instructional resource, grounded in principles of active learning and a constructivism, that embraces two primary objectives: "demystify" for accounting students technical material from statistics regarding ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression analysis--material that students may find obscure or…
Real-time regression analysis with deep convolutional neural networks
Huerta, E. A.; George, Daniel; Zhao, Zhizhen; Allen, Gabrielle
2018-01-01
We discuss the development of novel deep learning algorithms to enable real-time regression analysis for time series data. We showcase the application of this new method with a timely case study, and then discuss the applicability of this approach to tackle similar challenges across science domains.
Management of Industrial Performance Indicators: Regression Analysis and Simulation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Walter Roberto Hernandez Vergara
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Stochastic methods can be used in problem solving and explanation of natural phenomena through the application of statistical procedures. The article aims to associate the regression analysis and systems simulation, in order to facilitate the practical understanding of data analysis. The algorithms were developed in Microsoft Office Excel software, using statistical techniques such as regression theory, ANOVA and Cholesky Factorization, which made it possible to create models of single and multiple systems with up to five independent variables. For the analysis of these models, the Monte Carlo simulation and analysis of industrial performance indicators were used, resulting in numerical indices that aim to improve the goals’ management for compliance indicators, by identifying systems’ instability, correlation and anomalies. The analytical models presented in the survey indicated satisfactory results with numerous possibilities for industrial and academic applications, as well as the potential for deployment in new analytical techniques.
Analysis of Logic Programs Using Regular Tree Languages
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gallagher, John Patrick
2012-01-01
The eld of nite tree automata provides fundamental notations and tools for reasoning about set of terms called regular or recognizable tree languages. We consider two kinds of analysis using regular tree languages, applied to logic programs. The rst approach is to try to discover automatically...... a tree automaton from a logic program, approximating its minimal Herbrand model. In this case the input for the analysis is a program, and the output is a tree automaton. The second approach is to expose or check properties of the program that can be expressed by a given tree automaton. The input...... to the analysis is a program and a tree automaton, and the output is an abstract model of the program. These two contrasting abstract interpretations can be used in a wide range of analysis and verication problems....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Regis Wendpouire Oubida
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Local adaptation to climate in temperate forest trees involves the integration of multiple physiological, morphological, and phenological traits. Latitudinal clines are frequently observed for these traits, but environmental constraints also track longitude and altitude. We combined extensive phenotyping of 12 candidate adaptive traits, multivariate regression trees, quantitative genetics, and a genome-wide panel of SNP markers to better understand the interplay among geography, climate, and adaptation to abiotic factors in Populus trichocarpa. Heritabilities were low to moderate (0.13 to 0.32 and population differentiation for many traits exceeded the 99th percentile of the genome-wide distribution of FST, suggesting local adaptation. When climate variables were taken as predictors and the 12 traits as response variables in a multivariate regression tree analysis, evapotranspiration (Eref explained the most variation, with subsequent splits related to mean temperature of the warmest month, frost-free period (FFP, and mean annual precipitation (MAP. These grouping matched relatively well the splits using geographic variables as predictors: the northernmost groups (short FFP and low Eref had the lowest growth, and lowest cold injury index; the southern British Columbia group (low Eref and intermediate temperatures had average growth and cold injury index; the group from the coast of California and Oregon (high Eref and FFP had the highest growth performance and the highest cold injury index; and the southernmost, high-altitude group (with high Eref and low FFP performed poorly, had high cold injury index, and lower water use efficiency. Taken together, these results suggest variation in both temperature and water availability across the range shape multivariate adaptive traits in poplar.
Fault tree analysis with multistate components
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Caldarola, L.
1979-02-01
A general analytical theory has been developed which allows one to calculate the occurence probability of the top event of a fault tree with multistate (more than states) components. It is shown that, in order to correctly describe a system with multistate components, a special type of Boolean algebra is required. This is called 'Boolean algebra with restrictions on varibales' and its basic rules are the same as those of the traditional Boolean algebra with some additional restrictions on the variables. These restrictions are extensively discussed in the paper. Important features of the method are the identification of the complete base and of the smallest irredundant base of a Boolean function which does not necessarily need to be coherent. It is shown that the identification of the complete base of a Boolean function requires the application of some algorithms which are not used in today's computer programmes for fault tree analysis. The problem of statistical dependence among primary components is discussed. The paper includes a small demonstrative example to illustrate the method. The example includes also statistical dependent components. (orig.) [de
Bersinger, T; Bareille, G; Pigot, T; Bru, N; Le Hécho, I
2018-06-01
A good knowledge of the dynamic of pollutant concentration and flux in a combined sewer network is necessary when considering solutions to limit the pollutants discharged by combined sewer overflow (CSO) into receiving water during wet weather. Identification of the parameters that influence pollutant concentration and flux is important. Nevertheless, few studies have obtained satisfactory results for the identification of these parameters using statistical tools. Thus, this work uses a large database of rain events (116 over one year) obtained via continuous measurement of rainfall, discharge flow and chemical oxygen demand (COD) estimated using online turbidity for the identification of these parameters. We carried out a statistical study of the parameters influencing the maximum COD concentration, the discharge flow and the discharge COD flux. In this study a new test was used that has never been used in this field: the conditional regression tree test. We have demonstrated that the antecedent dry weather period, the rain event average intensity and the flow before the event are the three main factors influencing the maximum COD concentration during a rainfall event. Regarding the discharge flow, it is mainly influenced by the overall rainfall height but not by the maximum rainfall intensity. Finally, COD discharge flux is influenced by the discharge volume and the maximum COD concentration. Regression trees seem much more appropriate than common tests like PCA and PLS for this type of study as they take into account the thresholds and cumulative effects of various parameters as a function of the target variable. These results could help to improve sewer and CSO management in order to decrease the discharge of pollutants into receiving waters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Regression Analysis of Individual Financial Performance: Evidence from Croatia
Bahovec, Vlasta; Barbić, Dajana; Palić, Irena
2017-01-01
Background: A large body of empirical literature indicates that gender and financial literacy are significant determinants of individual financial performance. Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to recognize the impact of the variable financial literacy and the variable gender on the variation of the financial performance using the regression analysis. Methods/Approach: The survey was conducted using the systematically chosen random sample of Croatian financial consumers. The cross sect...
Regression analysis of a chemical reaction fouling model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vasak, F.; Epstein, N.
1996-01-01
A previously reported mathematical model for the initial chemical reaction fouling of a heated tube is critically examined in the light of the experimental data for which it was developed. A regression analysis of the model with respect to that data shows that the reference point upon which the two adjustable parameters of the model were originally based was well chosen, albeit fortuitously. (author). 3 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs
Poisson Regression Analysis of Illness and Injury Surveillance Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Frome E.L., Watkins J.P., Ellis E.D.
2012-12-12
The Department of Energy (DOE) uses illness and injury surveillance to monitor morbidity and assess the overall health of the work force. Data collected from each participating site include health events and a roster file with demographic information. The source data files are maintained in a relational data base, and are used to obtain stratified tables of health event counts and person time at risk that serve as the starting point for Poisson regression analysis. The explanatory variables that define these tables are age, gender, occupational group, and time. Typical response variables of interest are the number of absences due to illness or injury, i.e., the response variable is a count. Poisson regression methods are used to describe the effect of the explanatory variables on the health event rates using a log-linear main effects model. Results of fitting the main effects model are summarized in a tabular and graphical form and interpretation of model parameters is provided. An analysis of deviance table is used to evaluate the importance of each of the explanatory variables on the event rate of interest and to determine if interaction terms should be considered in the analysis. Although Poisson regression methods are widely used in the analysis of count data, there are situations in which over-dispersion occurs. This could be due to lack-of-fit of the regression model, extra-Poisson variation, or both. A score test statistic and regression diagnostics are used to identify over-dispersion. A quasi-likelihood method of moments procedure is used to evaluate and adjust for extra-Poisson variation when necessary. Two examples are presented using respiratory disease absence rates at two DOE sites to illustrate the methods and interpretation of the results. In the first example the Poisson main effects model is adequate. In the second example the score test indicates considerable over-dispersion and a more detailed analysis attributes the over-dispersion to extra
Ozge, C; Toros, F; Bayramkaya, E; Camdeviren, H; Sasmaz, T
2006-08-01
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the most important sociodemographic factors on smoking status of high school students using a broad randomised epidemiological survey. Using in-class, self administered questionnaire about their sociodemographic variables and smoking behaviour, a representative sample of total 3304 students of preparatory, 9th, 10th, and 11th grades, from 22 randomly selected schools of Mersin, were evaluated and discriminative factors have been determined using appropriate statistics. In addition to binary logistic regression analysis, the study evaluated combined effects of these factors using classification and regression tree methodology, as a new statistical method. The data showed that 38% of the students reported lifetime smoking and 16.9% of them reported current smoking with a male predominancy and increasing prevalence by age. Second hand smoking was reported at a 74.3% frequency with father predominance (56.6%). The significantly important factors that affect current smoking in these age groups were increased by household size, late birth rank, certain school types, low academic performance, increased second hand smoking, and stress (especially reported as separation from a close friend or because of violence at home). Classification and regression tree methodology showed the importance of some neglected sociodemographic factors with a good classification capacity. It was concluded that, as closely related with sociocultural factors, smoking was a common problem in this young population, generating important academic and social burden in youth life and with increasing data about this behaviour and using new statistical methods, effective coping strategies could be composed.
On macroeconomic values investigation using fuzzy linear regression analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Richard Pospíšil
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The theoretical background for abstract formalization of the vague phenomenon of complex systems is the fuzzy set theory. In the paper, vague data is defined as specialized fuzzy sets - fuzzy numbers and there is described a fuzzy linear regression model as a fuzzy function with fuzzy numbers as vague parameters. To identify the fuzzy coefficients of the model, the genetic algorithm is used. The linear approximation of the vague function together with its possibility area is analytically and graphically expressed. A suitable application is performed in the tasks of the time series fuzzy regression analysis. The time-trend and seasonal cycles including their possibility areas are calculated and expressed. The examples are presented from the economy field, namely the time-development of unemployment, agricultural production and construction respectively between 2009 and 2011 in the Czech Republic. The results are shown in the form of the fuzzy regression models of variables of time series. For the period 2009-2011, the analysis assumptions about seasonal behaviour of variables and the relationship between them were confirmed; in 2010, the system behaved fuzzier and the relationships between the variables were vaguer, that has a lot of causes, from the different elasticity of demand, through state interventions to globalization and transnational impacts.
Regression analysis of radiological parameters in nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bhargava, Pradeep; Verma, R.K.; Joshi, M.L.
2003-01-01
Indian Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) have now attained maturity in their operations. Indian PHWR operation started in the year 1972. At present there are 12 operating PHWRs collectively producing nearly 2400 MWe. Sufficient radiological data are available for analysis to draw inferences which may be utilised for better understanding of radiological parameters influencing the collective internal dose. Tritium is the main contributor to the occupational internal dose originating in PHWRs. An attempt has been made to establish the relationship between radiological parameters, which may be useful to draw inferences about the internal dose. Regression analysis have been done to find out the relationship, if it exist, among the following variables: A. Specific tritium activity of heavy water (Moderator and PHT) and tritium concentration in air at various work locations. B. Internal collective occupational dose and tritium release to environment through air route. C. Specific tritium activity of heavy water (Moderator and PHT) and collective internal occupational dose. For this purpose multivariate regression analysis has been carried out. D. Tritium concentration in air at various work location and tritium release to environment through air route. For this purpose multivariate regression analysis has been carried out. This analysis reveals that collective internal dose has got very good correlation with the tritium activity release to the environment through air route. Whereas no correlation has been found between specific tritium activity in the heavy water systems and collective internal occupational dose. The good correlation has been found in case D and F test reveals that it is not by chance. (author)
Forecasting urban water demand: A meta-regression analysis.
Sebri, Maamar
2016-12-01
Water managers and planners require accurate water demand forecasts over the short-, medium- and long-term for many purposes. These range from assessing water supply needs over spatial and temporal patterns to optimizing future investments and planning future allocations across competing sectors. This study surveys the empirical literature on the urban water demand forecasting using the meta-analytical approach. Specifically, using more than 600 estimates, a meta-regression analysis is conducted to identify explanations of cross-studies variation in accuracy of urban water demand forecasting. Our study finds that accuracy depends significantly on study characteristics, including demand periodicity, modeling method, forecasting horizon, model specification and sample size. The meta-regression results remain robust to different estimators employed as well as to a series of sensitivity checks performed. The importance of these findings lies in the conclusions and implications drawn out for regulators and policymakers and for academics alike. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Park, Myonghwa; Choi, Sora; Shin, A Mi; Koo, Chul Hoi
2013-02-01
The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for the characteristics of older adults with depression using the decision tree method. A large dataset from the 2008 Korean Elderly Survey was used and data of 14,970 elderly people were analyzed. Target variable was depression and 53 input variables were general characteristics, family & social relationship, economic status, health status, health behavior, functional status, leisure & social activity, quality of life, and living environment. Data were analyzed by decision tree analysis, a data mining technique using SPSS Window 19.0 and Clementine 12.0 programs. The decision trees were classified into five different rules to define the characteristics of older adults with depression. Classification & Regression Tree (C&RT) showed the best prediction with an accuracy of 80.81% among data mining models. Factors in the rules were life satisfaction, nutritional status, daily activity difficulty due to pain, functional limitation for basic or instrumental daily activities, number of chronic diseases and daily activity difficulty due to disease. The different rules classified by the decision tree model in this study should contribute as baseline data for discovering informative knowledge and developing interventions tailored to these individual characteristics.
Methods of fault tree analysis and their limits
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weber, G.G.
1984-12-01
Some recent methodological developments of fault tree analysis are discussed and limits of fault tree analysis and a criterion for admissibility of structure functions are given. It is shown that there are interesting relations to switching theory and to stochastic processes. (orig./HP) [de
Smoothed analysis of binary search trees
Manthey, Bodo; Reischuk, Rüdiger
2007-01-01
Binary search trees are one of the most fundamental data structures. While the height of such a tree may be linear in the worst case, the average height with respect to the uniform distribution is only logarithmic. The exact value is one of the best studied problems in average-case complexity. We
Finding determinants of audit delay by pooled OLS regression analysis
Vuko, Tina; Čular, Marko
2014-01-01
The aim of this paper is to investigate determinants of audit delay. Audit delay is measured as the length of time (i.e. the number of calendar days) from the fiscal year-end to the audit report date. It is important to understand factors that influence audit delay since it directly affects the timeliness of financial reporting. The research is conducted on a sample of Croatian listed companies, covering the period of four years (from 2008 to 2011). We use pooled OLS regression analysis, mode...
Bayesian Analysis for Penalized Spline Regression Using WinBUGS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ciprian M. Crainiceanu
2005-09-01
Full Text Available Penalized splines can be viewed as BLUPs in a mixed model framework, which allows the use of mixed model software for smoothing. Thus, software originally developed for Bayesian analysis of mixed models can be used for penalized spline regression. Bayesian inference for nonparametric models enjoys the flexibility of nonparametric models and the exact inference provided by the Bayesian inferential machinery. This paper provides a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of nonparametric Bayesian analysis in WinBUGS. Good mixing properties of the MCMC chains are obtained by using low-rank thin-plate splines, while simulation times per iteration are reduced employing WinBUGS specific computational tricks.
Smith, R.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Balaji, R.
2017-12-01
In light of deeply uncertain factors like future climate change and population shifts, responsible resource management will require new types of information and strategies. For water utilities, this entails potential expansion and efficient management of water supply infrastructure systems for changes in overall supply; changes in frequency and severity of climate extremes such as droughts and floods; and variable demands, all while accounting for conflicting long and short term performance objectives. Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) are emerging decision support tools that have been used by researchers and, more recently, water utilities to efficiently generate and evaluate thousands of planning portfolios. The tradeoffs between conflicting objectives are explored in an automated way to produce (often large) suites of portfolios that strike different balances of performance. Once generated, the sets of optimized portfolios are used to support relatively subjective assertions of priorities and human reasoning, leading to adoption of a plan. These large tradeoff sets contain information about complex relationships between decisions and between groups of decisions and performance that, until now, has not been quantitatively described. We present a novel use of Multivariate Regression Trees (MRTs) to analyze tradeoff sets to reveal these relationships and critical decisions. Additionally, when MRTs are applied to tradeoff sets developed for different realizations of an uncertain future, they can identify decisions that are robust across a wide range of conditions and produce fundamental insights about the system being optimized.
Heddam, Salim; Kisi, Ozgur
2018-04-01
In the present study, three types of artificial intelligence techniques, least square support vector machine (LSSVM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5T) are applied for modeling daily dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration using several water quality variables as inputs. The DO concentration and water quality variables data from three stations operated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) were used for developing the three models. The water quality data selected consisted of daily measured of water temperature (TE, °C), pH (std. unit), specific conductance (SC, μS/cm) and discharge (DI cfs), are used as inputs to the LSSVM, MARS and M5T models. The three models were applied for each station separately and compared to each other. According to the results obtained, it was found that: (i) the DO concentration could be successfully estimated using the three models and (ii) the best model among all others differs from one station to another.
Using decision trees and their ensembles for analysis of NIR spectroscopic data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kucheryavskiy, Sergey V.
and interpretation of the models. In this presentation, we are going to discuss an applicability of decision trees based methods (including gradient boosting) for solving classification and regression tasks with NIR spectra as predictors. We will cover such aspects as evaluation, optimization and validation......Advanced machine learning methods, like convolutional neural networks and decision trees, became extremely popular in the last decade. This, first of all, is directly related to the current boom in Big data analysis, where traditional statistical methods are not efficient. According to the kaggle.......com — the most popular online resource for Big data problems and solutions — methods based on decision trees and their ensembles are most widely used for solving the problems. It can be noted that the decision trees and convolutional neural networks are not very popular in Chemometrics. One of the reasons...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yingxin Gu
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Regression tree models have been widely used for remote sensing-based ecosystem mapping. Improper use of the sample data (model training and testing data may cause overfitting and underfitting effects in the model. The goal of this study is to develop an optimal sampling data usage strategy for any dataset and identify an appropriate number of rules in the regression tree model that will improve its accuracy and robustness. Landsat 8 data and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-scaled Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI were used to develop regression tree models. A Python procedure was designed to generate random replications of model parameter options across a range of model development data sizes and rule number constraints. The mean absolute difference (MAD between the predicted and actual NDVI (scaled NDVI, value from 0–200 and its variability across the different randomized replications were calculated to assess the accuracy and stability of the models. In our case study, a six-rule regression tree model developed from 80% of the sample data had the lowest MAD (MADtraining = 2.5 and MADtesting = 2.4, which was suggested as the optimal model. This study demonstrates how the training data and rule number selections impact model accuracy and provides important guidance for future remote-sensing-based ecosystem modeling.
Sparse Regression by Projection and Sparse Discriminant Analysis
Qi, Xin; Luo, Ruiyan; Carroll, Raymond J.; Zhao, Hongyu
2015-01-01
predictions. We introduce a new framework, regression by projection, and its sparse version to analyze high-dimensional data. The unique nature of this framework is that the directions of the regression coefficients are inferred first, and the lengths
Generalized fault tree analysis combined with state analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Caldarola, L.
1980-02-01
An analytical theory has been developed which allows one to calculate the occurrence probability of the top event of a fault tree with multistate (two or more than two states) components. It is shown that, in order to correctly describe a system with multistate components, a special type of boolean algebra is required. This is called 'boolean algebra with restrictions on variables' and its basic rules are the same as those of the traditional boolean algebra with some additional restrictions on the variables. These restrictions are extensively discussed in the paper. It is also shown that the boolean algebra with restrictions on variables facilitates the task of formally combining fault tree analysis with state analysis. The computer program MUSTAFA 1 based on the above theory has been developed. It can analyse fault trees of system containing statistically independent as well as dependent components with two or more than two states. MUSTAFA 1 can handle coherent as well as non coherent boolean functions. (orig.) 891 HP/orig. 892 MB [de
Finding determinants of audit delay by pooled OLS regression analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tina Vuko
2014-03-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate determinants of audit delay. Audit delay is measured as the length of time (i.e. the number of calendar days from the fiscal year-end to the audit report date. It is important to understand factors that influence audit delay since it directly affects the timeliness of financial reporting. The research is conducted on a sample of Croatian listed companies, covering the period of four years (from 2008 to 2011. We use pooled OLS regression analysis, modelling audit delay as a function of the following explanatory variables: audit firm type, audit opinion, profitability, leverage, inventory and receivables to total assets, absolute value of total accruals, company size and audit committee existence. Our results indicate that audit committee existence, profitability and leverage are statistically significant determinants of audit delay in Croatia.
A Visual Analytics Approach for Correlation, Classification, and Regression Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Steed, Chad A [ORNL; SwanII, J. Edward [Mississippi State University (MSU); Fitzpatrick, Patrick J. [Mississippi State University (MSU); Jankun-Kelly, T.J. [Mississippi State University (MSU)
2012-02-01
New approaches that combine the strengths of humans and machines are necessary to equip analysts with the proper tools for exploring today's increasing complex, multivariate data sets. In this paper, a novel visual data mining framework, called the Multidimensional Data eXplorer (MDX), is described that addresses the challenges of today's data by combining automated statistical analytics with a highly interactive parallel coordinates based canvas. In addition to several intuitive interaction capabilities, this framework offers a rich set of graphical statistical indicators, interactive regression analysis, visual correlation mining, automated axis arrangements and filtering, and data classification techniques. The current work provides a detailed description of the system as well as a discussion of key design aspects and critical feedback from domain experts.
Inferring gene expression dynamics via functional regression analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Leng Xiaoyan
2008-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Temporal gene expression profiles characterize the time-dynamics of expression of specific genes and are increasingly collected in current gene expression experiments. In the analysis of experiments where gene expression is obtained over the life cycle, it is of interest to relate temporal patterns of gene expression associated with different developmental stages to each other to study patterns of long-term developmental gene regulation. We use tools from functional data analysis to study dynamic changes by relating temporal gene expression profiles of different developmental stages to each other. Results We demonstrate that functional regression methodology can pinpoint relationships that exist between temporary gene expression profiles for different life cycle phases and incorporates dimension reduction as needed for these high-dimensional data. By applying these tools, gene expression profiles for pupa and adult phases are found to be strongly related to the profiles of the same genes obtained during the embryo phase. Moreover, one can distinguish between gene groups that exhibit relationships with positive and others with negative associations between later life and embryonal expression profiles. Specifically, we find a positive relationship in expression for muscle development related genes, and a negative relationship for strictly maternal genes for Drosophila, using temporal gene expression profiles. Conclusion Our findings point to specific reactivation patterns of gene expression during the Drosophila life cycle which differ in characteristic ways between various gene groups. Functional regression emerges as a useful tool for relating gene expression patterns from different developmental stages, and avoids the problems with large numbers of parameters and multiple testing that affect alternative approaches.
Weibull and lognormal Taguchi analysis using multiple linear regression
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Piña-Monarrez, Manuel R.; Ortiz-Yañez, Jesús F.
2015-01-01
The paper provides to reliability practitioners with a method (1) to estimate the robust Weibull family when the Taguchi method (TM) is applied, (2) to estimate the normal operational Weibull family in an accelerated life testing (ALT) analysis to give confidence to the extrapolation and (3) to perform the ANOVA analysis to both the robust and the normal operational Weibull family. On the other hand, because the Weibull distribution neither has the normal additive property nor has a direct relationship with the normal parameters (µ, σ), in this paper, the issues of estimating a Weibull family by using a design of experiment (DOE) are first addressed by using an L_9 (3"4) orthogonal array (OA) in both the TM and in the Weibull proportional hazard model approach (WPHM). Then, by using the Weibull/Gumbel and the lognormal/normal relationships and multiple linear regression, the direct relationships between the Weibull and the lifetime parameters are derived and used to formulate the proposed method. Moreover, since the derived direct relationships always hold, the method is generalized to the lognormal and ALT analysis. Finally, the method’s efficiency is shown through its application to the used OA and to a set of ALT data. - Highlights: • It gives the statistical relations and steps to use the Taguchi Method (TM) to analyze Weibull data. • It gives the steps to determine the unknown Weibull family to both the robust TM setting and the normal ALT level. • It gives a method to determine the expected lifetimes and to perform its ANOVA analysis in TM and ALT analysis. • It gives a method to give confidence to the extrapolation in an ALT analysis by using the Weibull family of the normal level.
Al-Khaja, Nawal
2007-01-01
This is a thematic lesson plan for young learners about palm trees and the importance of taking care of them. The two part lesson teaches listening, reading and speaking skills. The lesson includes parts of a tree; the modal auxiliary, can; dialogues and a role play activity.
Determinants of orphan drugs prices in France: a regression analysis.
Korchagina, Daria; Millier, Aurelie; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Aballea, Samuel; Falissard, Bruno; Toumi, Mondher
2017-04-21
The introduction of the orphan drug legislation led to the increase in the number of available orphan drugs, but the access to them is often limited due to the high price. Social preferences regarding funding orphan drugs as well as the criteria taken into consideration while setting the price remain unclear. The study aimed at identifying the determinant of orphan drug prices in France using a regression analysis. All drugs with a valid orphan designation at the moment of launch for which the price was available in France were included in the analysis. The selection of covariates was based on a literature review and included drug characteristics (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) class, treatment line, age of target population), diseases characteristics (severity, prevalence, availability of alternative therapeutic options), health technology assessment (HTA) details (actual benefit (AB) and improvement in actual benefit (IAB) scores, delay between the HTA and commercialisation), and study characteristics (type of study, comparator, type of endpoint). The main data sources were European public assessment reports, HTA reports, summaries of opinion on orphan designation of the European Medicines Agency, and the French insurance database of drugs and tariffs. A generalized regression model was developed to test the association between the annual treatment cost and selected covariates. A total of 68 drugs were included. The mean annual treatment cost was €96,518. In the univariate analysis, the ATC class (p = 0.01), availability of alternative treatment options (p = 0.02) and the prevalence (p = 0.02) showed a significant correlation with the annual cost. The multivariate analysis demonstrated significant association between the annual cost and availability of alternative treatment options, ATC class, IAB score, type of comparator in the pivotal clinical trial, as well as commercialisation date and delay between the HTA and commercialisation. The
Elliptic Fourier analysis of crown shapes in Quercus petraea trees
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ovidiu Hâruţa
2011-02-01
Full Text Available Shape is a fundamental morphological descriptor, significant in taxonomic research as well as in ecomorphology, one method of estimation being from digitally processed images. In the present study, were analysed shapes of Q. petraea crowns, pertaining to five different stem diameter classes, from three similar stands. Based on measurements on terrestrial digital vertical photos, crown size analysis was performed and correlations between crown and stem variables were tested. Linear regression equations between crown volumes and dbh, and crown volumes and stem volumes were derived, explaining more than half of data variability. Employment of elliptic Fourier analysis (EFA, a powerful analysis tool, permitted the extraction of the mean shape from crowns, characterized by high morphological variability. The extracted, most important, coefficients were used to reconstruct the average shape of the crowns, using Inverse Fourier Transform. A mean shape of the crown, corresponding to stand conditions in which competition is added as influential shaping factor, aside genetic program of the species, is described for each stem diameter class. Crown regions with highest shape variability, from the perspective of stage developmentof the trees, were determined. Accordingly, the main crown shape characteristics are: crown elongation, mass center, asymmetry with regard to the main axis, lateral regions symmetrical and asymmetrical variations.
Elliptic Fourier analysis of crown shapes in Quercus petraea trees
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ovidiu Hâruţa
2011-06-01
Full Text Available Shape is a fundamental morphological descriptor, significant in taxonomic research as well as in ecomorphology, one method of estimation being from digitally processed images. In the present study, were analysed shapes of Q. petraea crowns, pertaining to five different stem diameter classes, from three similar stands. Based on measurements on terrestrial digital vertical photos, crown size analysis was performed and correlations between crown and stem variables were tested. Linear regression equations between crown volumes and dbh, and crown volumes and stem volumes were derived, explaining more than half of data variability. Employment of elliptic Fourier analysis (EFA, a powerful analysis tool, permitted the extraction of the mean shape from crowns, characterized by high morphological variability. The extracted, most important, coefficients were used to reconstruct the average shape of the crowns, using Inverse Fourier Transform. A mean shape of the crown, corresponding to stand conditions in which competition is added as influential shaping factor, aside genetic program of the species, is described for each stem diameter class. Crown regions with highest shape variability, from the perspective of stage development of the trees, were determined. Accordingly, the main crown shape characteristics are: crown elongation, centroid position, asymmetry with regard to the main axis, lateral regions symmetrical and asymmetrical variations.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Althuwaynee, Omar F; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Ahmad, Noordin
2014-01-01
This article uses methodology based on chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID), as a multivariate method that has an automatic classification capacity to analyse large numbers of landslide conditioning factors. This new algorithm was developed to overcome the subjectivity of the manual categorization of scale data of landslide conditioning factors, and to predict rainfall-induced susceptibility map in Kuala Lumpur city and surrounding areas using geographic information system (GIS). The main objective of this article is to use CHi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) method to perform the best classification fit for each conditioning factor, then, combining it with logistic regression (LR). LR model was used to find the corresponding coefficients of best fitting function that assess the optimal terminal nodes. A cluster pattern of landslide locations was extracted in previous study using nearest neighbor index (NNI), which were then used to identify the clustered landslide locations range. Clustered locations were used as model training data with 14 landslide conditioning factors such as; topographic derived parameters, lithology, NDVI, land use and land cover maps. Pearson chi-squared value was used to find the best classification fit between the dependent variable and conditioning factors. Finally the relationship between conditioning factors were assessed and the landslide susceptibility map (LSM) was produced. An area under the curve (AUC) was used to test the model reliability and prediction capability with the training and validation landslide locations respectively. This study proved the efficiency and reliability of decision tree (DT) model in landslide susceptibility mapping. Also it provided a valuable scientific basis for spatial decision making in planning and urban management studies
Althuwaynee, Omar F.; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Ahmad, Noordin
2014-06-01
This article uses methodology based on chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID), as a multivariate method that has an automatic classification capacity to analyse large numbers of landslide conditioning factors. This new algorithm was developed to overcome the subjectivity of the manual categorization of scale data of landslide conditioning factors, and to predict rainfall-induced susceptibility map in Kuala Lumpur city and surrounding areas using geographic information system (GIS). The main objective of this article is to use CHi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) method to perform the best classification fit for each conditioning factor, then, combining it with logistic regression (LR). LR model was used to find the corresponding coefficients of best fitting function that assess the optimal terminal nodes. A cluster pattern of landslide locations was extracted in previous study using nearest neighbor index (NNI), which were then used to identify the clustered landslide locations range. Clustered locations were used as model training data with 14 landslide conditioning factors such as; topographic derived parameters, lithology, NDVI, land use and land cover maps. Pearson chi-squared value was used to find the best classification fit between the dependent variable and conditioning factors. Finally the relationship between conditioning factors were assessed and the landslide susceptibility map (LSM) was produced. An area under the curve (AUC) was used to test the model reliability and prediction capability with the training and validation landslide locations respectively. This study proved the efficiency and reliability of decision tree (DT) model in landslide susceptibility mapping. Also it provided a valuable scientific basis for spatial decision making in planning and urban management studies.
SCHEME ANALYSIS TREE DIMENSIONS AND TOLERANCES PROCESSING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Constanta RADULESCU
2011-07-01
Full Text Available This paper presents one of the steps that help us to determine the optimal tolerances depending on thetechnological capability of processing equipment. To determine the tolerances in this way is necessary to takethe study and to represent schematically the operations are used in technological process of making a piece.Also in this phase will make the tree diagram of the dimensions and machining tolerances, dimensions andtolerances shown that the design execution. Determination processes, and operations of the dimensions andtolerances tree scheme will make for a machined piece is both indoor and outdoor.
An analysis of Monte Carlo tree search
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
James, S
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Tree Search Steven James∗, George Konidaris† & Benjamin Rosman∗‡ ∗University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa †Brown University, Providence RI 02912, USA ‡Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa steven....james@students.wits.ac.za, gdk@cs.brown.edu, brosman@csir.co.za Abstract Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a family of directed search algorithms that has gained widespread attention in re- cent years. Despite the vast amount of research into MCTS, the effect of modifications...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Coleman, D.J.; Lizzi, F.L.; Silverman, R.H.; Ellsworth, R.M.; Haik, B.G.; Abramson, D.H.; Smith, M.E.; Rondeau, M.J.
1985-01-01
Parameters derived from computer analysis of digital radio-frequency (rf) ultrasound scan data of untreated uveal malignant melanomas were examined for correlations with tumor regression following cobalt-60 plaque. Parameters included tumor height, normalized power spectrum and acoustic tissue type (ATT). Acoustic tissue type was based upon discriminant analysis of tumor power spectra, with spectra of tumors of known pathology serving as a model. Results showed ATT to be correlated with tumor regression during the first 18 months following treatment. Tumors with ATT associated with spindle cell malignant melanoma showed over twice the percentage reduction in height as those with ATT associated with mixed/epithelioid melanomas. Pre-treatment height was only weakly correlated with regression. Additionally, significant spectral changes were observed following treatment. Ultrasonic spectrum analysis thus provides a noninvasive tool for classification, prediction and monitoring of tumor response to cobalt-60 plaque
Mixed kernel function support vector regression for global sensitivity analysis
Cheng, Kai; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Yuhao; Shi, Yan; Zhou, Yicheng
2017-11-01
Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays an important role in exploring the respective effects of input variables on an assigned output response. Amongst the wide sensitivity analyses in literature, the Sobol indices have attracted much attention since they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a mixed kernel function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model is employed to evaluate the Sobol indices at low computational cost. By the proposed derivation, the estimation of the Sobol indices can be obtained by post-processing the coefficients of the SVR meta-model. The MKF is constituted by the orthogonal polynomials kernel function and Gaussian radial basis kernel function, thus the MKF possesses both the global characteristic advantage of the polynomials kernel function and the local characteristic advantage of the Gaussian radial basis kernel function. The proposed approach is suitable for high-dimensional and non-linear problems. Performance of the proposed approach is validated by various analytical functions and compared with the popular polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). Results demonstrate that the proposed approach is an efficient method for global sensitivity analysis.
Framing an Nuclear Emergency Plan using Qualitative Regression Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Amy Hamijah Abdul Hamid; Ibrahim, M.Z.A.; Deris, S.R.
2014-01-01
Since the arising on safety maintenance issues due to post-Fukushima disaster, as well as, lack of literatures on disaster scenario investigation and theory development. This study is dealing with the initiation difficulty on the research purpose which is related to content and problem setting of the phenomenon. Therefore, the research design of this study refers to inductive approach which is interpreted and codified qualitatively according to primary findings and written reports. These data need to be classified inductively into thematic analysis as to develop conceptual framework related to several theoretical lenses. Moreover, the framing of the expected framework of the respective emergency plan as the improvised business process models are abundant of unstructured data abstraction and simplification. The structural methods of Qualitative Regression Analysis (QRA) and Work System snapshot applied to form the data into the proposed model conceptualization using rigorous analyses. These methods were helpful in organising and summarizing the snapshot into an ' as-is ' work system that being recommended as ' to-be' w ork system towards business process modelling. We conclude that these methods are useful to develop comprehensive and structured research framework for future enhancement in business process simulation. (author)
Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses
Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus
2017-06-01
Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.
Hostettler, Isabel Charlotte; Muroi, Carl; Richter, Johannes Konstantin; Schmid, Josef; Neidert, Marian Christoph; Seule, Martin; Boss, Oliver; Pangalu, Athina; Germans, Menno Robbert; Keller, Emanuela
2018-01-19
OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS The database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7. RESULTS The overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for prognostication.
Utilization of fault tree analysis techniques in fire protection work
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crass, E.R.
1986-01-01
This paper describes the development of a fault tree model for a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR), and the subsequent use of this model to perform a safe shutdown analysis and determine conformance with Section IIIG of 10 CFR 50, Appendix R. The paper describes the rationale for choosing this analytical tool, the development of the fault tree model, the analysis of the model using the PREP code, disposition of the results, and finally, application of the results to determine the need for plant modifications. It concludes with a review of the strengths and weaknesses of the use of Fault Tree Methodology for this application
Lazaridis, D.C.; Verbesselt, J.; Robinson, A.P.
2011-01-01
Constructing models can be complicated when the available fitting data are highly correlated and of high dimension. However, the complications depend on whether the goal is prediction instead of estimation. We focus on predicting tree mortality (measured as the number of dead trees) from change
Robust Regression and its Application in Financial Data Analysis
Mansoor Momeni; Mahmoud Dehghan Nayeri; Ali Faal Ghayoumi; Hoda Ghorbani
2010-01-01
This research is aimed to describe the application of robust regression and its advantages over the least square regression method in analyzing financial data. To do this, relationship between earning per share, book value of equity per share and share price as price model and earning per share, annual change of earning per share and return of stock as return model is discussed using both robust and least square regressions, and finally the outcomes are compared. Comparing the results from th...
Analysis of large fault trees based on functional decomposition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Contini, Sergio; Matuzas, Vaidas
2011-01-01
With the advent of the Binary Decision Diagrams (BDD) approach in fault tree analysis, a significant enhancement has been achieved with respect to previous approaches, both in terms of efficiency and accuracy of the overall outcome of the analysis. However, the exponential increase of the number of nodes with the complexity of the fault tree may prevent the construction of the BDD. In these cases, the only way to complete the analysis is to reduce the complexity of the BDD by applying the truncation technique, which nevertheless implies the problem of estimating the truncation error or upper and lower bounds of the top-event unavailability. This paper describes a new method to analyze large coherent fault trees which can be advantageously applied when the working memory is not sufficient to construct the BDD. It is based on the decomposition of the fault tree into simpler disjoint fault trees containing a lower number of variables. The analysis of each simple fault tree is performed by using all the computational resources. The results from the analysis of all simpler fault trees are re-combined to obtain the results for the original fault tree. Two decomposition methods are herewith described: the first aims at determining the minimal cut sets (MCS) and the upper and lower bounds of the top-event unavailability; the second can be applied to determine the exact value of the top-event unavailability. Potentialities, limitations and possible variations of these methods will be discussed with reference to the results of their application to some complex fault trees.
Analysis of large fault trees based on functional decomposition
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Contini, Sergio, E-mail: sergio.contini@jrc.i [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, 21020 Ispra (Italy); Matuzas, Vaidas [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, 21020 Ispra (Italy)
2011-03-15
With the advent of the Binary Decision Diagrams (BDD) approach in fault tree analysis, a significant enhancement has been achieved with respect to previous approaches, both in terms of efficiency and accuracy of the overall outcome of the analysis. However, the exponential increase of the number of nodes with the complexity of the fault tree may prevent the construction of the BDD. In these cases, the only way to complete the analysis is to reduce the complexity of the BDD by applying the truncation technique, which nevertheless implies the problem of estimating the truncation error or upper and lower bounds of the top-event unavailability. This paper describes a new method to analyze large coherent fault trees which can be advantageously applied when the working memory is not sufficient to construct the BDD. It is based on the decomposition of the fault tree into simpler disjoint fault trees containing a lower number of variables. The analysis of each simple fault tree is performed by using all the computational resources. The results from the analysis of all simpler fault trees are re-combined to obtain the results for the original fault tree. Two decomposition methods are herewith described: the first aims at determining the minimal cut sets (MCS) and the upper and lower bounds of the top-event unavailability; the second can be applied to determine the exact value of the top-event unavailability. Potentialities, limitations and possible variations of these methods will be discussed with reference to the results of their application to some complex fault trees.
Analysis of electrical tree propagation in XLPE power cable insulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bao Minghui; Yin Xiaogen; He Junjia
2011-01-01
Electrical treeing is one of the major breakdown mechanisms for solid dielectrics subjected to high electrical stress. In this paper, the characteristics of electrical tree growth in XLPE samples have been investigated. XLPE samples are obtained from a commercial XLPE power cable, in which electrical trees have been grown from pin to plane in the frequency range of 4000-10,000 Hz, voltage range of 4-10 kV, and the distances between electrodes of 1 and 2 mm. Images of trees and their growing processes were taken by a CCD camera. The fractal dimensions of electric trees were obtained by using a simple box-counting technique. The results show that the tree growth rate and fractal dimension was bigger when the frequency or voltage was higher, or the distance between electrodes was smaller. Contrary to our expectation, it has been found that when the distance between electrodes changed from 1 to 2 mm, the required voltage of the similar electrical trees decreased only 1or 2 kV. In order to evaluate the difficulties of electrical tree propagation in different conditions, a simple energy threshold analysis method has been proposed. The threshold energy, which presents the minimum energy that a charge carrier in the well at the top of the tree should have to make the tree grow, has been computed considering the length of electrical tree, the fractal dimension, and the growth time. The computed results indicate that when one of the three parameters of voltage, frequency, and local electric field increase, the trends of energy threshold can be split into 3 regions.
Statistical analysis of sediment toxicity by additive monotone regression splines
Boer, de W.J.; Besten, den P.J.; Braak, ter C.J.F.
2002-01-01
Modeling nonlinearity and thresholds in dose-effect relations is a major challenge, particularly in noisy data sets. Here we show the utility of nonlinear regression with additive monotone regression splines. These splines lead almost automatically to the estimation of thresholds. We applied this
Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.
Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R
2017-12-01
Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francesco Cerasoli
Full Text Available Boosted Regression Trees (BRT is one of the modelling techniques most recently applied to biodiversity conservation and it can be implemented with presence-only data through the generation of artificial absences (pseudo-absences. In this paper, three pseudo-absences generation techniques are compared, namely the generation of pseudo-absences within target-group background (TGB, testing both the weighted (WTGB and unweighted (UTGB scheme, and the generation at random (RDM, evaluating their performance and applicability in distribution modelling and species conservation. The choice of the target group fell on amphibians, because of their rapid decline worldwide and the frequent lack of guidelines for conservation strategies and regional-scale planning, which instead could be provided through an appropriate implementation of SDMs. Bufo bufo, Salamandrina perspicillata and Triturus carnifex were considered as target species, in order to perform our analysis with species having different ecological and distributional characteristics. The study area is the "Gran Sasso-Monti della Laga" National Park, which hosts 15 Natura 2000 sites and represents one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Our results show that the model calibration ameliorates when using the target-group based pseudo-absences compared to the random ones, especially when applying the WTGB. Contrarily, model discrimination did not significantly vary in a consistent way among the three approaches with respect to the tree target species. Both WTGB and RDM clearly isolate the highly contributing variables, supplying many relevant indications for species conservation actions. Moreover, the assessment of pairwise variable interactions and their three-dimensional visualization further increase the amount of useful information for protected areas' managers. Finally, we suggest the use of RDM as an admissible alternative when it is not possible to individuate a suitable set of
A Novel Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm Based on Regression Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhiming Song
2015-01-01
Full Text Available As is known, the Pareto set of a continuous multiobjective optimization problem with m objective functions is a piecewise continuous (m-1-dimensional manifold in the decision space under some mild conditions. However, how to utilize the regularity to design multiobjective optimization algorithms has become the research focus. In this paper, based on this regularity, a model-based multiobjective evolutionary algorithm with regression analysis (MMEA-RA is put forward to solve continuous multiobjective optimization problems with variable linkages. In the algorithm, the optimization problem is modelled as a promising area in the decision space by a probability distribution, and the centroid of the probability distribution is (m-1-dimensional piecewise continuous manifold. The least squares method is used to construct such a model. A selection strategy based on the nondominated sorting is used to choose the individuals to the next generation. The new algorithm is tested and compared with NSGA-II and RM-MEDA. The result shows that MMEA-RA outperforms RM-MEDA and NSGA-II on the test instances with variable linkages. At the same time, MMEA-RA has higher efficiency than the other two algorithms. A few shortcomings of MMEA-RA have also been identified and discussed in this paper.
Regression and kriging analysis for grid power factor estimation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rajesh Guntaka
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The measurement of power factor (PF in electrical utility grids is a mainstay of load balancing and is also a critical element of transmission and distribution efficiency. The measurement of PF dates back to the earliest periods of electrical power distribution to public grids. In the wide-area distribution grid, measurement of current waveforms is trivial and may be accomplished at any point in the grid using a current tap transformer. However, voltage measurement requires reference to ground and so is more problematic and measurements are normally constrained to points that have ready and easy access to a ground source. We present two mathematical analysis methods based on kriging and linear least square estimation (LLSE (regression to derive PF at nodes with unknown voltages that are within a perimeter of sample nodes with ground reference across a selected power grid. Our results indicate an error average of 1.884% that is within acceptable tolerances for PF measurements that are used in load balancing tasks.
A simplified procedure of linear regression in a preliminary analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Silvia Facchinetti
2013-05-01
Full Text Available The analysis of a statistical large data-set can be led by the study of a particularly interesting variable Y – regressed – and an explicative variable X, chosen among the remained variables, conjointly observed. The study gives a simplified procedure to obtain the functional link of the variables y=y(x by a partition of the data-set into m subsets, in which the observations are synthesized by location indices (mean or median of X and Y. Polynomial models for y(x of order r are considered to verify the characteristics of the given procedure, in particular we assume r= 1 and 2. The distributions of the parameter estimators are obtained by simulation, when the fitting is done for m= r + 1. Comparisons of the results, in terms of distribution and efficiency, are made with the results obtained by the ordinary least square methods. The study also gives some considerations on the consistency of the estimated parameters obtained by the given procedure.
[The Application of the Fault Tree Analysis Method in Medical Equipment Maintenance].
Liu, Hongbin
2015-11-01
In this paper, the traditional fault tree analysis method is presented, detailed instructions for its application characteristics in medical instrument maintenance is made. It is made significant changes when the traditional fault tree analysis method is introduced into the medical instrument maintenance: gave up the logic symbolic, logic analysis and calculation, gave up its complicated programs, and only keep its image and practical fault tree diagram, and the fault tree diagram there are also differences: the fault tree is no longer a logical tree but the thinking tree in troubleshooting, the definition of the fault tree's nodes is different, the composition of the fault tree's branches is also different.
SCHEME ANALYSIS TREE DIMENSIONS AND TOLERANCES PROCESSING
Constanta RADULESCU; Liviu Marius CÎRŢÎNĂ; Constantin MILITARU
2011-01-01
This paper presents one of the steps that help us to determine the optimal tolerances depending on thetechnological capability of processing equipment. To determine the tolerances in this way is necessary to takethe study and to represent schematically the operations are used in technological process of making a piece.Also in this phase will make the tree diagram of the dimensions and machining tolerances, dimensions andtolerances shown that the design execution. Determination processes, and ...
A compendium of computer codes in fault tree analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lydell, B.
1981-03-01
In the past ten years principles and methods for a unified system reliability and safety analysis have been developed. Fault tree techniques serve as a central feature of unified system analysis, and there exists a specific discipline within system reliability concerned with the theoretical aspects of fault tree evaluation. Ever since the fault tree concept was established, computer codes have been developed for qualitative and quantitative analyses. In particular the presentation of the kinetic tree theory and the PREP-KITT code package has influenced the present use of fault trees and the development of new computer codes. This report is a compilation of some of the better known fault tree codes in use in system reliability. Numerous codes are available and new codes are continuously being developed. The report is designed to address the specific characteristics of each code listed. A review of the theoretical aspects of fault tree evaluation is presented in an introductory chapter, the purpose of which is to give a framework for the validity of the different codes. (Auth.)
Harrell , Jr , Frank E
2015-01-01
This highly anticipated second edition features new chapters and sections, 225 new references, and comprehensive R software. In keeping with the previous edition, this book is about the art and science of data analysis and predictive modeling, which entails choosing and using multiple tools. Instead of presenting isolated techniques, this text emphasizes problem solving strategies that address the many issues arising when developing multivariable models using real data and not standard textbook examples. It includes imputation methods for dealing with missing data effectively, methods for fitting nonlinear relationships and for making the estimation of transformations a formal part of the modeling process, methods for dealing with "too many variables to analyze and not enough observations," and powerful model validation techniques based on the bootstrap. The reader will gain a keen understanding of predictive accuracy, and the harm of categorizing continuous predictors or outcomes. This text realistically...
An Analysis of Bank Service Satisfaction Based on Quantile Regression and Grey Relational Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wen-Tsao Pan
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Bank service satisfaction is vital to the success of a bank. In this paper, we propose to use the grey relational analysis to gauge the levels of service satisfaction of the banks. With the grey relational analysis, we compared the effects of different variables on service satisfaction. We gave ranks to the banks according to their levels of service satisfaction. We further used the quantile regression model to find the variables that affected the satisfaction of a customer at a specific quantile of satisfaction level. The result of the quantile regression analysis provided a bank manager with information to formulate policies to further promote satisfaction of the customers at different quantiles of satisfaction level. We also compared the prediction accuracies of the regression models at different quantiles. The experiment result showed that, among the seven quantile regression models, the median regression model has the best performance in terms of RMSE, RTIC, and CE performance measures.
Methods of Detecting Outliers in A Regression Analysis Model ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU
2013-06-01
Jun 1, 2013 ... especially true in observational studies .... Simple linear regression and multiple ... The simple linear ..... Grubbs,F.E (1950): Sample Criteria for Testing Outlying observations: Annals of ... In experimental design, the Relative.
231 Using Multiple Regression Analysis in Modelling the Role of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
User
of Internal Revenue, Tourism Bureau and hotel records. The multiple regression .... additional guest facilities such as restaurant, a swimming pool or child care and social function ... and provide good quality service to the public. Conclusion.
Analysis of quantile regression as alternative to ordinary least squares
Ibrahim Abdullahi; Abubakar Yahaya
2015-01-01
In this article, an alternative to ordinary least squares (OLS) regression based on analytical solution in the Statgraphics software is considered, and this alternative is no other than quantile regression (QR) model. We also present goodness of fit statistic as well as approximate distributions of the associated test statistics for the parameters. Furthermore, we suggest a goodness of fit statistic called the least absolute deviation (LAD) coefficient of determination. The procedure is well ...
Neutron activation analysis of absolutely-dated tree rings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Uenlue, K.; Hauck, D.K.; Kuniholm, P.I.; Chiment, J.J.
2005-01-01
Gold concentration was determined for dendrochronologically-dated wood samples using neutron activation analysis (NAA) and correlation sought with known environmental changes, e.g., volcanic activities, during historic periods. Uptake of gold is sensitive to soil pH for many plants. Data presented are from a single, cross-dated tree that grew in Greece. Using NAA, gold was measured with parts-per-billion sensitivity in individual tree rings from 1411 to 1988 AD. (author)
Künne, A.; Fink, M.; Kipka, H.; Krause, P.; Flügel, W.-A.
2012-06-01
In this paper, a method is presented to estimate excess nitrogen on large scales considering single field processes. The approach was implemented by using the physically based model J2000-S to simulate the nitrogen balance as well as the hydrological dynamics within meso-scale test catchments. The model input data, the parameterization, the results and a detailed system understanding were used to generate the regression tree models with GUIDE (Loh, 2002). For each landscape type in the federal state of Thuringia a regression tree was calibrated and validated using the model data and results of excess nitrogen from the test catchments. Hydrological parameters such as precipitation and evapotranspiration were also used to predict excess nitrogen by the regression tree model. Hence they had to be calculated and regionalized as well for the state of Thuringia. Here the model J2000g was used to simulate the water balance on the macro scale. With the regression trees the excess nitrogen was regionalized for each landscape type of Thuringia. The approach allows calculating the potential nitrogen input into the streams of the drainage area. The results show that the applied methodology was able to transfer the detailed model results of the meso-scale catchments to the entire state of Thuringia by low computing time without losing the detailed knowledge from the nitrogen transport modeling. This was validated with modeling results from Fink (2004) in a catchment lying in the regionalization area. The regionalized and modeled excess nitrogen correspond with 94%. The study was conducted within the framework of a project in collaboration with the Thuringian Environmental Ministry, whose overall aim was to assess the effect of agro-environmental measures regarding load reduction in the water bodies of Thuringia to fulfill the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (Bäse et al., 2007; Fink, 2006; Fink et al., 2007).
A fault tree analysis strategy using binary decision diagrams
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reay, Karen A.; Andrews, John D.
2002-01-01
The use of binary decision diagrams (BDDs) in fault tree analysis provides both an accurate and efficient means of analysing a system. There is a problem, however, with the conversion process of the fault tree to the BDD. The variable ordering scheme chosen for the construction of the BDD has a crucial effect on its resulting size and previous research has failed to identify any scheme that is capable of producing BDDs for all fault trees. This paper proposes an analysis strategy aimed at increasing the likelihood of obtaining a BDD for any given fault tree, by ensuring the associated calculations are as efficient as possible. The method implements simplification techniques, which are applied to the fault tree to obtain a set of 'minimal' subtrees, equivalent to the original fault tree structure. BDDs are constructed for each, using ordering schemes most suited to their particular characteristics. Quantitative analysis is performed simultaneously on the set of BDDs to obtain the top event probability, the system unconditional failure intensity and the criticality of the basic events
Analysis of protection spanning-tree protocol
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Б.Я. Корнієнко
2007-01-01
Full Text Available Extraordinary sweeping of IT – development causes vulnerabilities and, thereafter, attacks that use these vulnerabilities. That is why one must post factum or even in advance speed up invention of new information security systems as well as develop the old ones. The matter of article concerns Spanning-Tree Protocol – the vivid example of the case, when the cure of the vulnerability creates dozen of new "weak spots".
Hutton, Eileen K; Simioni, Julia C; Thabane, Lehana
2017-08-01
Among women with a fetus with a non-cephalic presentation, external cephalic version (ECV) has been shown to reduce the rate of breech presentation at birth and cesarean birth. Compared with ECV at term, beginning ECV prior to 37 weeks' gestation decreases the number of infants in a non-cephalic presentation at birth. The purpose of this secondary analysis was to investigate factors associated with a successful ECV procedure and to present this in a clinically useful format. Data were collected as part of the Early ECV Pilot and Early ECV2 Trials, which randomized 1776 women with a fetus in breech presentation to either early ECV (34-36 weeks' gestation) or delayed ECV (at or after 37 weeks). The outcome of interest was successful ECV, defined as the fetus being in a cephalic presentation immediately following the procedure, as well as at the time of birth. The importance of several factors in predicting successful ECV was investigated using two statistical methods: logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analyses. Among nulliparas, non-engagement of the presenting part and an easily palpable fetal head were independently associated with success. Among multiparas, non-engagement of the presenting part, gestation less than 37 weeks and an easily palpable fetal head were found to be independent predictors of success. These findings were consistent with results of the CART analyses. Regardless of parity, descent of the presenting part was the most discriminating factor in predicting successful ECV and cephalic presentation at birth. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.
Multiple regression for physiological data analysis: the problem of multicollinearity.
Slinker, B K; Glantz, S A
1985-07-01
Multiple linear regression, in which several predictor variables are related to a response variable, is a powerful statistical tool for gaining quantitative insight into complex in vivo physiological systems. For these insights to be correct, all predictor variables must be uncorrelated. However, in many physiological experiments the predictor variables cannot be precisely controlled and thus change in parallel (i.e., they are highly correlated). There is a redundancy of information about the response, a situation called multicollinearity, that leads to numerical problems in estimating the parameters in regression equations; the parameters are often of incorrect magnitude or sign or have large standard errors. Although multicollinearity can be avoided with good experimental design, not all interesting physiological questions can be studied without encountering multicollinearity. In these cases various ad hoc procedures have been proposed to mitigate multicollinearity. Although many of these procedures are controversial, they can be helpful in applying multiple linear regression to some physiological problems.
Analysis of some methods for reduced rank Gaussian process regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Quinonero-Candela, J.; Rasmussen, Carl Edward
2005-01-01
While there is strong motivation for using Gaussian Processes (GPs) due to their excellent performance in regression and classification problems, their computational complexity makes them impractical when the size of the training set exceeds a few thousand cases. This has motivated the recent...... proliferation of a number of cost-effective approximations to GPs, both for classification and for regression. In this paper we analyze one popular approximation to GPs for regression: the reduced rank approximation. While generally GPs are equivalent to infinite linear models, we show that Reduced Rank...... Gaussian Processes (RRGPs) are equivalent to finite sparse linear models. We also introduce the concept of degenerate GPs and show that they correspond to inappropriate priors. We show how to modify the RRGP to prevent it from being degenerate at test time. Training RRGPs consists both in learning...
Intermediate and advanced topics in multilevel logistic regression analysis.
Austin, Peter C; Merlo, Juan
2017-09-10
Multilevel data occur frequently in health services, population and public health, and epidemiologic research. In such research, binary outcomes are common. Multilevel logistic regression models allow one to account for the clustering of subjects within clusters of higher-level units when estimating the effect of subject and cluster characteristics on subject outcomes. A search of the PubMed database demonstrated that the use of multilevel or hierarchical regression models is increasing rapidly. However, our impression is that many analysts simply use multilevel regression models to account for the nuisance of within-cluster homogeneity that is induced by clustering. In this article, we describe a suite of analyses that can complement the fitting of multilevel logistic regression models. These ancillary analyses permit analysts to estimate the marginal or population-average effect of covariates measured at the subject and cluster level, in contrast to the within-cluster or cluster-specific effects arising from the original multilevel logistic regression model. We describe the interval odds ratio and the proportion of opposed odds ratios, which are summary measures of effect for cluster-level covariates. We describe the variance partition coefficient and the median odds ratio which are measures of components of variance and heterogeneity in outcomes. These measures allow one to quantify the magnitude of the general contextual effect. We describe an R 2 measure that allows analysts to quantify the proportion of variation explained by different multilevel logistic regression models. We illustrate the application and interpretation of these measures by analyzing mortality in patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Grades, Gender, and Encouragement: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis
Owen, Ann L.
2010-01-01
The author employs a regression discontinuity design to provide direct evidence on the effects of grades earned in economics principles classes on the decision to major in economics and finds a differential effect for male and female students. Specifically, for female students, receiving an A for a final grade in the first economics class is…
Design and analysis of experiments classical and regression approaches with SAS
Onyiah, Leonard C
2008-01-01
Introductory Statistical Inference and Regression Analysis Elementary Statistical Inference Regression Analysis Experiments, the Completely Randomized Design (CRD)-Classical and Regression Approaches Experiments Experiments to Compare Treatments Some Basic Ideas Requirements of a Good Experiment One-Way Experimental Layout or the CRD: Design and Analysis Analysis of Experimental Data (Fixed Effects Model) Expected Values for the Sums of Squares The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Table Follow-Up Analysis to Check fo
Fault tree technique: advances in probabilistic and logical analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clarotti, C.A.; Amendola, A.; Contini, S.; Squellati, G.
1982-01-01
Fault tree reliability analysis is used for assessing the risk associated to systems of increasing complexity (phased mission systems, systems with multistate components, systems with non-monotonic structure functions). Much care must be taken to make sure that fault tree technique is not used beyond its correct validity range. To this end a critical review of mathematical foundations of reliability fault tree analysis is carried out. Limitations are enlightened and potential solutions to open problems are suggested. Moreover an overview is given on the most recent developments in the implementation of an integrated software (SALP-MP, SALP-NOT, SALP-CAFT Codes) for the analysis of a wide class of systems
REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURE PATTERNS FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN.
SEA WATER, *SURFACE TEMPERATURE, *OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA, PACIFIC OCEAN, REGRESSION ANALYSIS , STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, UNDERWATER EQUIPMENT, DETECTION, UNDERWATER COMMUNICATIONS, DISTRIBUTION, THERMAL PROPERTIES, COMPUTERS.
Instrumental neutron activation analysis of tree rings for dendrochemical studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schaumloffel, J.C.; Filby, R.H.
1996-01-01
Instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) was employed to determine zinc, cadmium and potassium concentrations in the growth rings of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) trees growing along the shores of Lake Roosevelt in Washington State, U.S.A. where mineral processing activities have resulted in high burdens of zinc and cadmium in the lake sediments. The tree growing along the contaminated waterway display elevated concentrations of zinc in its growth rings relative to a tree growing along an uncontaminated tributary of Lake Roosevelt. Cadmium concentrations in the growth rings from both sites are similar from 1988 to 1993. Water quality data indicate an increased concentration of cadmium in the lake from 1984 to 1988. The increased concentrations of cadmium in the lake water were reflected in apparent increases in concentrations of cadmium in individual rings of the tree sampled at the contaminated site. This suggests that translocation of cadmium in the sapwood of heartwood-forming species does not occur in the short term, and thus may not be a limiting factor in using trees as environmental monitors for cadmium. In addition, five-year tree ring segments were analyzed and subsequently reanalyzed as individual single-year ring segments. The analytical data obtained for the pooled individual rings are essentially the same as for the five-year segments, demonstrating the utility of NAA for dendrochemical studies. (author). 24 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs
Marginal regression analysis of recurrent events with coarsened censoring times.
Hu, X Joan; Rosychuk, Rhonda J
2016-12-01
Motivated by an ongoing pediatric mental health care (PMHC) study, this article presents weakly structured methods for analyzing doubly censored recurrent event data where only coarsened information on censoring is available. The study extracted administrative records of emergency department visits from provincial health administrative databases. The available information of each individual subject is limited to a subject-specific time window determined up to concealed data. To evaluate time-dependent effect of exposures, we adapt the local linear estimation with right censored survival times under the Cox regression model with time-varying coefficients (cf. Cai and Sun, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 2003, 30, 93-111). We establish the pointwise consistency and asymptotic normality of the regression parameter estimator, and examine its performance by simulation. The PMHC study illustrates the proposed approach throughout the article. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.
Regression analysis of censored data using pseudo-observations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Parner, Erik T.; Andersen, Per Kragh
2010-01-01
We draw upon a series of articles in which a method based on pseu- dovalues is proposed for direct regression modeling of the survival function, the restricted mean, and the cumulative incidence function in competing risks with right-censored data. The models, once the pseudovalues have been...... computed, can be fit using standard generalized estimating equation software. Here we present Stata procedures for computing these pseudo-observations. An example from a bone marrow transplantation study is used to illustrate the method....
Application of regression analysis to creep of space shuttle materials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rummler, D.R.
1975-01-01
Metallic heat shields for Space Shuttle thermal protection systems must operate for many flight cycles at high temperatures in low-pressure air and use thin-gage (less than or equal to 0.65 mm) sheet. Available creep data for thin sheet under those conditions are inadequate. To assess the effects of oxygen partial pressure and sheet thickness on creep behavior and to develop constitutive creep equations for small sets of data, regression techniques are applied and discussed
Model performance analysis and model validation in logistic regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rosa Arboretti Giancristofaro
2007-10-01
Full Text Available In this paper a new model validation procedure for a logistic regression model is presented. At first, we illustrate a brief review of different techniques of model validation. Next, we define a number of properties required for a model to be considered "good", and a number of quantitative performance measures. Lastly, we describe a methodology for the assessment of the performance of a given model by using an example taken from a management study.
BRGLM, Interactive Linear Regression Analysis by Least Square Fit
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ringland, J.T.; Bohrer, R.E.; Sherman, M.E.
1985-01-01
1 - Description of program or function: BRGLM is an interactive program written to fit general linear regression models by least squares and to provide a variety of statistical diagnostic information about the fit. Stepwise and all-subsets regression can be carried out also. There are facilities for interactive data management (e.g. setting missing value flags, data transformations) and tools for constructing design matrices for the more commonly-used models such as factorials, cubic Splines, and auto-regressions. 2 - Method of solution: The least squares computations are based on the orthogonal (QR) decomposition of the design matrix obtained using the modified Gram-Schmidt algorithm. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The current release of BRGLM allows maxima of 1000 observations, 99 variables, and 3000 words of main memory workspace. For a problem with N observations and P variables, the number of words of main memory storage required is MAX(N*(P+6), N*P+P*P+3*N, and 3*P*P+6*N). Any linear model may be fit although the in-memory workspace will have to be increased for larger problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sarrach, D.; Strohner, P.
1986-01-01
The Gauss-Newton algorithm has been used to evaluate tracer binding parameters of RIA by nonlinear regression analysis. The calculations were carried out on the K1003 desk computer. Equations for simple binding models and its derivatives are presented. The advantages of nonlinear regression analysis over linear regression are demonstrated
SETS, Boolean Manipulation for Network Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Worrell, R.B.
1985-01-01
Description of problem or function - SETS is used for symbolic manipulation of set (or Boolean) equations, particularly the reduction of set equations by the application of set identities. It is a flexible and efficient tool for performing probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), vital area analysis, and common cause analysis. The equation manipulation capabilities of SETS can also be used to analyze non-coherent fault trees and determine prime implicants of Boolean functions, to verify circuit design implementation, to determine minimum cost fire protection requirements for nuclear reactor plants, to obtain solutions to combinatorial optimization problems with Boolean constraints, and to determine the susceptibility of a facility to unauthorized access through nullification of sensors in its protection system. 4. Method of solution - The SETS program is used to read, interpret, and execute the statements of a SETS user program which is an algorithm that specifies the particular manipulations to be performed and the order in which they are to occur. 5. Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Any properly formed set equation involving the set operations of union, intersection, and complement is acceptable for processing by the SETS program. Restrictions on the size of a set equation that can be processed are not absolute but rather are related to the number of terms in the disjunctive normal form of the equation, the number of literals in the equation, etc. Nevertheless, set equations involving thousands and even hundreds of thousands of terms can be processed successfully
Prediction of strontium bromide laser efficiency using cluster and decision tree analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Iliev Iliycho
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Subject of investigation is a new high-powered strontium bromide (SrBr2 vapor laser emitting in multiline region of wavelengths. The laser is an alternative to the atom strontium lasers and electron free lasers, especially at the line 6.45 μm which line is used in surgery for medical processing of biological tissues and bones with minimal damage. In this paper the experimental data from measurements of operational and output characteristics of the laser are statistically processed by means of cluster analysis and tree-based regression techniques. The aim is to extract the more important relationships and dependences from the available data which influence the increase of the overall laser efficiency. There are constructed and analyzed a set of cluster models. It is shown by using different cluster methods that the seven investigated operational characteristics (laser tube diameter, length, supplied electrical power, and others and laser efficiency are combined in 2 clusters. By the built regression tree models using Classification and Regression Trees (CART technique there are obtained dependences to predict the values of efficiency, and especially the maximum efficiency with over 95% accuracy.
Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees.
Simon, Svenja; Guthke, Reinhard; Kamradt, Thomas; Frey, Oliver
2012-01-01
Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called "induction of decision trees" in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees' quality, we used stratified fivefold cross validation and chose the "best" tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.
Fault tree analysis. Implementation of the WAM-codes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bento, J.P.; Poern, K.
1979-07-01
The report describes work going on at Studsvik at the implementation of the WAM code package for fault tree analysis. These codes originally developed under EPRI contract by Sciences Applications Inc, allow, in contrast with other fault tree codes, all Boolean operations, thus allowing modeling of ''NOT'' conditions and dependent components. To concretize the implementation of these codes, the auxiliary feed-water system of the Swedish BWR Oskarshamn 2 was chosen for the reliability analysis. For this system, both the mean unavailability and the probability density function of the top event - undesired event - of the system fault tree were calculated, the latter using a Monte-Carlo simulation technique. The present study is the first part of a work performed under contract with the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate. (author)
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
1995-01-01
This tutorial discusses what-if analysis and optimization of System Dynamics models. These problems are solved, using the statistical techniques of regression analysis and design of experiments (DOE). These issues are illustrated by applying the statistical techniques to a System Dynamics model for
Semiparametric regression analysis of interval-censored competing risks data.
Mao, Lu; Lin, Dan-Yu; Zeng, Donglin
2017-09-01
Interval-censored competing risks data arise when each study subject may experience an event or failure from one of several causes and the failure time is not observed directly but rather is known to lie in an interval between two examinations. We formulate the effects of possibly time-varying (external) covariates on the cumulative incidence or sub-distribution function of competing risks (i.e., the marginal probability of failure from a specific cause) through a broad class of semiparametric regression models that captures both proportional and non-proportional hazards structures for the sub-distribution. We allow each subject to have an arbitrary number of examinations and accommodate missing information on the cause of failure. We consider nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation and devise a fast and stable EM-type algorithm for its computation. We then establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and semiparametric efficiency of the resulting estimators for the regression parameters by appealing to modern empirical process theory. In addition, we show through extensive simulation studies that the proposed methods perform well in realistic situations. Finally, we provide an application to a study on HIV-1 infection with different viral subtypes. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.
ADTool: Security Analysis with Attack-Defense Trees
Kordy, Barbara; Kordy, P.T.; Mauw, Sjouke; Schweitzer, Patrick; Joshi, Kaustubh; Siegle, Markus; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; d' Argenio, P.R.
ADTool is free, open source software assisting graphical modeling and quantitative analysis of security, using attack–defense trees. The main features of ADTool are easy creation, efficient editing, and automated bottom-up evaluation of security-relevant measures. The tool also supports the usage of
Vulnerability Analysis of Urban Drainage Systems: Tree vs. Loop Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chi Zhang
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Vulnerability analysis of urban drainage networks plays an important role in urban flood management. This study analyzes and compares the vulnerability of tree and loop systems under various rainfall events to structural failure represented by pipe blockage. Different pipe blockage scenarios, in which one of the pipes in an urban drainage network is assumed to be blocked individually, are constructed and their impacts on the network are simulated under different storm events. Furthermore, a vulnerability index is defined to measure the vulnerability of the drainage systems before and after the implementation of adaptation measures. The results obtained indicate that the tree systems have a relatively larger proportion of critical hydraulic pipes than the loop systems, thus the vulnerability of tree systems is substantially greater than that of the loop systems. Furthermore, the vulnerability index of tree systems is reduced after they are converted into a loop system with the implementation of adaptation measures. This paper provides an insight into the differences in the vulnerability of tree and loop systems, and provides more evidence for development of adaptation measures (e.g., tanks to reduce urban flooding.
Simulation Experiments in Practice : Statistical Design and Regression Analysis
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2007-01-01
In practice, simulation analysts often change only one factor at a time, and use graphical analysis of the resulting Input/Output (I/O) data. The goal of this article is to change these traditional, naïve methods of design and analysis, because statistical theory proves that more information is
A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.
Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław
2018-01-01
In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.
Selective principal component regression analysis (SPCR) uses a subset of the original image bands for principal component transformation and regression. For optimal band selection before the transformation, this paper used genetic algorithms (GA). In this case, the GA process used the regression co...
Shedding light on tree growth : ring analysis of juvenile tropical trees
Soliz Gamboa, C.C.
2010-01-01
In the understory of tropical forests light is believed to be the main limiting growth factor for the newly established trees. Trees growing in shade of the understory may experience periods of slow radial growth. It is expected that gaps created by tree or branch fall will provoke tree growth
Tree-space statistics and approximations for large-scale analysis of anatomical trees
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Feragen, Aasa; Owen, Megan; Petersen, Jens
2013-01-01
parametrize the relevant parts of tree-space well. Using the developed approximate statistics, we illustrate how the structure and geometry of airway trees vary across a population and show that airway trees with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease come from a different distribution in tree-space than...
Analysis of Relationship Between Personality and Favorite Places with Poisson Regression Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yoon Song Ha
2018-01-01
Full Text Available A relationship between human personality and preferred locations have been a long conjecture for human mobility research. In this paper, we analyzed the relationship between personality and visiting place with Poisson Regression. Poisson Regression can analyze correlation between countable dependent variable and independent variable. For this analysis, 33 volunteers provided their personality data and 49 location categories data are used. Raw location data is preprocessed to be normalized into rates of visit and outlier data is prunned. For the regression analysis, independent variables are personality data and dependent variables are preprocessed location data. Several meaningful results are found. For example, persons with high tendency of frequent visiting to university laboratory has personality with high conscientiousness and low openness. As well, other meaningful location categories are presented in this paper.
Modeling Information Content Via Dirichlet-Multinomial Regression Analysis.
Ferrari, Alberto
2017-01-01
Shannon entropy is being increasingly used in biomedical research as an index of complexity and information content in sequences of symbols, e.g. languages, amino acid sequences, DNA methylation patterns and animal vocalizations. Yet, distributional properties of information entropy as a random variable have seldom been the object of study, leading to researchers mainly using linear models or simulation-based analytical approach to assess differences in information content, when entropy is measured repeatedly in different experimental conditions. Here a method to perform inference on entropy in such conditions is proposed. Building on results coming from studies in the field of Bayesian entropy estimation, a symmetric Dirichlet-multinomial regression model, able to deal efficiently with the issue of mean entropy estimation, is formulated. Through a simulation study the model is shown to outperform linear modeling in a vast range of scenarios and to have promising statistical properties. As a practical example, the method is applied to a data set coming from a real experiment on animal communication.
Quantile regression analysis of body mass and wages.
Johar, Meliyanni; Katayama, Hajime
2012-05-01
Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, we explore the relationship between body mass and wages. We use quantile regression to provide a broad description of the relationship across the wage distribution. We also allow the relationship to vary by the degree of social skills involved in different jobs. Our results find that for female workers body mass and wages are negatively correlated at all points in their wage distribution. The strength of the relationship is larger at higher-wage levels. For male workers, the relationship is relatively constant across wage distribution but heterogeneous across ethnic groups. When controlling for the endogeneity of body mass, we find that additional body mass has a negative causal impact on the wages of white females earning more than the median wages and of white males around the median wages. Among these workers, the wage penalties are larger for those employed in jobs that require extensive social skills. These findings may suggest that labor markets reward white workers for good physical shape differently, depending on the level of wages and the type of job a worker has. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Strobl, Carolin; Malley, James; Tutz, Gerhard
2009-01-01
Recursive partitioning methods have become popular and widely used tools for nonparametric regression and classification in many scientific fields. Especially random forests, which can deal with large numbers of predictor variables even in the presence of complex interactions, have been applied successfully in genetics, clinical medicine, and…
Parsons, Vickie s.
2009-01-01
The request to conduct an independent review of regression models, developed for determining the expected Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) External Tank (ET)-04 cycle count for the Space Shuttle ET tanking process, was submitted to the NASA Engineering and Safety Center NESC on September 20, 2005. The NESC team performed an independent review of regression models documented in Prepress Regression Analysis, Tom Clark and Angela Krenn, 10/27/05. This consultation consisted of a peer review by statistical experts of the proposed regression models provided in the Prepress Regression Analysis. This document is the consultation's final report.
System optimization by fault tree analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krieger, G.
1985-01-01
Reliability evaluation are performed during design phasis as well as during erection phasis. Sensitivity analysis are performed to evaluate the balance of system. A suitable representation allows cost and related effect to be directly determined. Thus there is an advantage for decision making where as qualitative evaluations do not give so much insight. (orig.) [de
CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: PECBO Appendix - R Scripts for Non-Parametric Regressions
Script for computing nonparametric regression analysis. Overview of using scripts to infer environmental conditions from biological observations, statistically estimating species-environment relationships, statistical scripts.
Statistical 21-cm Signal Separation via Gaussian Process Regression Analysis
Mertens, F. G.; Ghosh, A.; Koopmans, L. V. E.
2018-05-01
Detecting and characterizing the Epoch of Reionization and Cosmic Dawn via the redshifted 21-cm hyperfine line of neutral hydrogen will revolutionize the study of the formation of the first stars, galaxies, black holes and intergalactic gas in the infant Universe. The wealth of information encoded in this signal is, however, buried under foregrounds that are many orders of magnitude brighter. These must be removed accurately and precisely in order to reveal the feeble 21-cm signal. This requires not only the modeling of the Galactic and extra-galactic emission, but also of the often stochastic residuals due to imperfect calibration of the data caused by ionospheric and instrumental distortions. To stochastically model these effects, we introduce a new method based on `Gaussian Process Regression' (GPR) which is able to statistically separate the 21-cm signal from most of the foregrounds and other contaminants. Using simulated LOFAR-EoR data that include strong instrumental mode-mixing, we show that this method is capable of recovering the 21-cm signal power spectrum across the entire range k = 0.07 - 0.3 {h cMpc^{-1}}. The GPR method is most optimal, having minimal and controllable impact on the 21-cm signal, when the foregrounds are correlated on frequency scales ≳ 3 MHz and the rms of the signal has σ21cm ≳ 0.1 σnoise. This signal separation improves the 21-cm power-spectrum sensitivity by a factor ≳ 3 compared to foreground avoidance strategies and enables the sensitivity of current and future 21-cm instruments such as the Square Kilometre Array to be fully exploited.
Tanaka, Tomohiro; Voigt, Michael D
2018-03-01
Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common de novo malignancy in liver transplant (LT) recipients; it behaves more aggressively and it increases mortality. We used decision tree analysis to develop a tool to stratify and quantify risk of NMSC in LT recipients. We performed Cox regression analysis to identify which predictive variables to enter into the decision tree analysis. Data were from the Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) STAR files of September 2016 (n = 102984). NMSC developed in 4556 of the 105984 recipients, a mean of 5.6 years after transplant. The 5/10/20-year rates of NMSC were 2.9/6.3/13.5%, respectively. Cox regression identified male gender, Caucasian race, age, body mass index (BMI) at LT, and sirolimus use as key predictive or protective factors for NMSC. These factors were entered into a decision tree analysis. The final tree stratified non-Caucasians as low risk (0.8%), and Caucasian males > 47 years, BMI decision tree model accurately stratifies the risk of developing NMSC in the long-term after LT.
The Use of Nonparametric Kernel Regression Methods in Econometric Production Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard
and nonparametric estimations of production functions in order to evaluate the optimal firm size. The second paper discusses the use of parametric and nonparametric regression methods to estimate panel data regression models. The third paper analyses production risk, price uncertainty, and farmers' risk preferences...... within a nonparametric panel data regression framework. The fourth paper analyses the technical efficiency of dairy farms with environmental output using nonparametric kernel regression in a semiparametric stochastic frontier analysis. The results provided in this PhD thesis show that nonparametric......This PhD thesis addresses one of the fundamental problems in applied econometric analysis, namely the econometric estimation of regression functions. The conventional approach to regression analysis is the parametric approach, which requires the researcher to specify the form of the regression...
Laurens, L M L; Wolfrum, E J
2013-12-18
One of the challenges associated with microalgal biomass characterization and the comparison of microalgal strains and conversion processes is the rapid determination of the composition of algae. We have developed and applied a high-throughput screening technology based on near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for the rapid and accurate determination of algal biomass composition. We show that NIR spectroscopy can accurately predict the full composition using multivariate linear regression analysis of varying lipid, protein, and carbohydrate content of algal biomass samples from three strains. We also demonstrate a high quality of predictions of an independent validation set. A high-throughput 96-well configuration for spectroscopy gives equally good prediction relative to a ring-cup configuration, and thus, spectra can be obtained from as little as 10-20 mg of material. We found that lipids exhibit a dominant, distinct, and unique fingerprint in the NIR spectrum that allows for the use of single and multiple linear regression of respective wavelengths for the prediction of the biomass lipid content. This is not the case for carbohydrate and protein content, and thus, the use of multivariate statistical modeling approaches remains necessary.
LOSP-initiated event tree analysis for BWR
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Watanabe, Norio; Kondo, Masaaki; Uno, Kiyotaka; Chigusa, Takeshi; Harami, Taikan
1989-03-01
As a preliminary study of 'Japanese Model Plant PSA', a LOSP (loss of off-site power)-initiated Event Tree Analysis for a Japanese typical BWR was carried out solely based on the open documents such as 'Safety Analysis Report'. The objectives of this analysis are as follows; - to delineate core-melt accident sequences initiated by LOSP, - to evaluate the importance of core-melt accident sequences in terms of occurrence frequency, and - to develop a foundation of plant information and analytical procedures for efficiently performing further 'Japanese Model Plant PSA'. This report describes the procedure and results of the LOSP-initiated Event Tree Analysis. In this analysis, two types of event trees, Functional Event Tree and Systemic Event Tree, were developed to delineate core-melt accident sequences and to quantify their frequencies. Front-line System Event Tree was prepared as well to provide core-melt sequence delineation for accident progression analysis of Level 2 PSA which will be followed in a future. Applying U.S. operational experience data such as component failure rates and a LOSP frequency, we obtained the following results; - The total frequency of core-melt accident sequences initiated by LOSP is estimated at 5 x 10 -4 per reactor-year. - The dominant sequences are 'Loss of Decay Heat Removal' and 'Loss of Emergency Electric Power Supply', which account for more than 90% of the total core-melt frequency. In this analysis, a higher value of 0.13/R·Y was used for the LOSP frequency than experiences in Japan and any recovery action was not considered. In fact, however, there has been no experience of LOSP event in Japanese nuclear power plants so far and it is also expected that offsite power and/or PCS would be recovered before core melt. Considering Japanese operating experience and recovery factors will reduce the total core-melt frequency to less than 10 -6 per reactor-year. (J.P.N.)
Methods of Detecting Outliers in A Regression Analysis Model. | Ogu ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A Boilers data with dependent variable Y (man-Hour) and four independent variables X1 (Boiler Capacity), X2 (Design Pressure), X3 (Boiler Type), X4 (Drum Type) were used. The analysis of the Boilers data reviewed an unexpected group of Outliers. The results from the findings showed that an observation can be outlying ...
Quantitative electron microscope autoradiography: application of multiple linear regression analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Markov, D.V.
1986-01-01
A new method for the analysis of high resolution EM autoradiographs is described. It identifies labelled cell organelle profiles in sections on a strictly statistical basis and provides accurate estimates for their radioactivity without the need to make any assumptions about their size, shape and spatial arrangement. (author)
Microhabitat analysis using radiotelemetry locations and polytomous logistic regression
Malcolm P. North; Joel H. Reynolds
1996-01-01
Microhabitat analyses often use discriminant function analysis (DFA) to compare vegetation structures or environmental conditions between sites classified by a study animal's presence or absence. These presence/absence studies make questionable assumptions about the habitat value of the comparison sites and the microhabitat data often violate the DFA's...
Singular spectrum analysis, Harmonic regression and El-Nino effect ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
42
Keywords: Total ozone; Singular Spectrum Analysis; Spatial interpolation; Multivariate ENSO .... needed for a whole gamut of activities that contribute to the ultimate synthesis ..... −0.0009 3 + 0.0581 2 − 1.0123 + 7.3246, 2 = 0.53…
Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lambert, H.E.
1975-01-01
The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)
Analysis of cost regression and post-accident absence
Wojciech, Drozd
2017-07-01
The article presents issues related with costs of work safety. It proves the thesis that economic aspects cannot be overlooked in effective management of occupational health and safety and that adequate expenditures on safety can bring tangible benefits to the company. Reliable analysis of this problem is essential for the description the problem of safety the work. In the article attempts to carry it out using the procedures of mathematical statistics [1, 2, 3].
Quantifying the Severity of Phytophthora Root Rot Disease in Avocado Trees Using Image Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arachchige Surantha Ashan Salgadoe
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Phytophthora root rot (PRR infects the roots of avocado trees, resulting in reduced uptake of water and nutrients, canopy decline, defoliation, and, eventually, tree mortality. Typically, the severity of PRR disease (proportion of canopy decline is assessed by visually comparing the canopy health of infected trees to a standardised set of photographs and a corresponding disease rating. Although this visual method provides some indication of the spatial variability of PRR disease across orchards, the accuracy and repeatability of the ranking is influenced by the experience of the assessor, the visibility of tree canopies, and the timing of the assessment. This study evaluates two image analysis methods that may serve as surrogates to the visual assessment of canopy decline in large avocado orchards. A smartphone camera was used to collect red, green, and blue (RGB colour images of individual trees with varying degrees of canopy decline, with the digital photographs then analysed to derive a canopy porosity percentage using a combination of ‘Canny edge detection’ and ‘Otsu’s’ methods. Coinciding with the on-ground measure of canopy porosity, the canopy reflectance characteristics of the sampled trees measured by high resolution Worldview-3 (WV-3 satellite imagery was also correlated against the observed disease severity rankings. Canopy porosity values (ranging from 20–70% derived from RGB images were found to be significantly different for most disease rankings (p < 0.05 and correlated well (R2 = 0.89 with the differentiation of three disease severity levels identified to be optimal. From the WV-3 imagery, a multivariate stepwise regression of 18 structural and pigment-based vegetation indices found the simplified ratio vegetation index (SRVI to be strongly correlated (R2 = 0.96 with the disease rankings of PRR disease severity, with the differentiation of four levels of severity found to be optimal.
Application Research of Fault Tree Analysis in Grid Communication System Corrective Maintenance
Wang, Jian; Yang, Zhenwei; Kang, Mei
2018-01-01
This paper attempts to apply the fault tree analysis method to the corrective maintenance field of grid communication system. Through the establishment of the fault tree model of typical system and the engineering experience, the fault tree analysis theory is used to analyze the fault tree model, which contains the field of structural function, probability importance and so on. The results show that the fault tree analysis can realize fast positioning and well repairing of the system. Meanwhile, it finds that the analysis method of fault tree has some guiding significance to the reliability researching and upgrading f the system.
Brienen, Roel J W; Zuidema, Pieter A
2005-11-01
Many tropical regions show one distinct dry season. Often, this seasonality induces cambial dormancy of trees, particularly if these belong to deciduous species. This will often lead to the formation of annual rings. The aim of this study was to determine whether tree species in the Bolivian Amazon region form annual rings and to study the influence of the total amount and seasonal distribution of rainfall on diameter growth. Ring widths were measured on stem discs of a total of 154 trees belonging to six rain forest species. By correlating ring width and monthly rainfall data we proved the annual character of the tree rings for four of our study species. For two other species the annual character was proved by counting rings on trees of known age and by radiocarbon dating. The results of the climate-growth analysis show a positive relationship between tree growth and rainfall in certain periods of the year, indicating that rainfall plays a major role in tree growth. Three species showed a strong relationship with rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season, while one species is most sensitive to the rainfall at the end of the previous growing season. These results clearly demonstrate that tree ring analysis can be successfully applied in the tropics and that it is a promising method for various research disciplines.
A Quality Assessment Tool for Non-Specialist Users of Regression Analysis
Argyrous, George
2015-01-01
This paper illustrates the use of a quality assessment tool for regression analysis. It is designed for non-specialist "consumers" of evidence, such as policy makers. The tool provides a series of questions such consumers of evidence can ask to interrogate regression analysis, and is illustrated with reference to a recent study published…
HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.
1990-01-01
In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chadoeuf, J.; Joannes, H.; Nandris, D.; Pierrat, J.C.
1988-12-01
The spread of root diseases in rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) due to Rigidoporus lignosus and Phellinus noxius was investigated epidemiologically using data collected every 6 month during a 6-year survey in a plantation. The aim of the present study is to see what factors could predict whether a given tree would be infested at the following inspection. Using a qualitative regression method we expressed the probability of pathogenic attack on a tree in terms of three factors: the state of health of the surrounding trees, the method used to clear the forest prior to planting, and evolution with time. The effects of each factor were ranked, and the roles of the various classes of neighbors were established and quantified. Variability between successive inspections was small, and the method of forest clearing was important only while primary inocula in the soil were still infectious. The state of health of the immediate neighbors was most significant; more distant neighbors in the same row had some effect; interrow spread was extremely rare. This investigation dealt only with trees as individuals, and further study of the interrelationships of groups of trees is needed.
Lombardo, L.; Cama, M.; Maerker, M.; Parisi, L.; Rotigliano, E.
2014-12-01
This study aims at comparing the performances of Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) methods in assessing landslide susceptibility for multiple-occurrence regional landslide events within the Mediterranean region. A test area was selected in the north-eastern sector of Sicily (southern Italy), corresponding to the catchments of the Briga and the Giampilieri streams both stretching for few kilometres from the Peloritan ridge (eastern Sicily, Italy) to the Ionian sea. This area was struck on the 1st October 2009 by an extreme climatic event resulting in thousands of rapid shallow landslides, mainly of debris flows and debris avalanches types involving the weathered layer of a low to high grade metamorphic bedrock. Exploiting the same set of predictors and the 2009 landslide archive, BLR- and BRT-based susceptibility models were obtained for the two catchments separately, adopting a random partition (RP) technique for validation; besides, the models trained in one of the two catchments (Briga) were tested in predicting the landslide distribution in the other (Giampilieri), adopting a spatial partition (SP) based validation procedure. All the validation procedures were based on multi-folds tests so to evaluate and compare the reliability of the fitting, the prediction skill, the coherence in the predictor selection and the precision of the susceptibility estimates. All the obtained models for the two methods produced very high predictive performances, with a general congruence between BLR and BRT in the predictor importance. In particular, the research highlighted that BRT-models reached a higher prediction performance with respect to BLR-models, for RP based modelling, whilst for the SP-based models the difference in predictive skills between the two methods dropped drastically, converging to an analogous excellent performance. However, when looking at the precision of the probability estimates, BLR demonstrated to produce more robust
An improved multiple linear regression and data analysis computer program package
Sidik, S. M.
1972-01-01
NEWRAP, an improved version of a previous multiple linear regression program called RAPIER, CREDUC, and CRSPLT, allows for a complete regression analysis including cross plots of the independent and dependent variables, correlation coefficients, regression coefficients, analysis of variance tables, t-statistics and their probability levels, rejection of independent variables, plots of residuals against the independent and dependent variables, and a canonical reduction of quadratic response functions useful in optimum seeking experimentation. A major improvement over RAPIER is that all regression calculations are done in double precision arithmetic.
Nobuoki, Eshima; Minoru, Tabata; Geng, Zhi; Department of Medical Information Analysis, Faculty of Medicine, Oita Medical University; Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Engineering, Kobe University; Department of Probability and Statistics, Peking University
2001-01-01
This paper discusses path analysis of categorical variables with logistic regression models. The total, direct and indirect effects in fully recursive causal systems are considered by using model parameters. These effects can be explained in terms of log odds ratios, uncertainty differences, and an inner product of explanatory variables and a response variable. A study on food choice of alligators as a numerical exampleis reanalysed to illustrate the present approach.
Multi-level tree analysis of pulmonary artery/vein trees in non-contrast CT images
Gao, Zhiyun; Grout, Randall W.; Hoffman, Eric A.; Saha, Punam K.
2012-02-01
Diseases like pulmonary embolism and pulmonary hypertension are associated with vascular dystrophy. Identifying such pulmonary artery/vein (A/V) tree dystrophy in terms of quantitative measures via CT imaging significantly facilitates early detection of disease or a treatment monitoring process. A tree structure, consisting of nodes and connected arcs, linked to the volumetric representation allows multi-level geometric and volumetric analysis of A/V trees. Here, a new theory and method is presented to generate multi-level A/V tree representation of volumetric data and to compute quantitative measures of A/V tree geometry and topology at various tree hierarchies. The new method is primarily designed on arc skeleton computation followed by a tree construction based topologic and geometric analysis of the skeleton. The method starts with a volumetric A/V representation as input and generates its topologic and multi-level volumetric tree representations long with different multi-level morphometric measures. A new recursive merging and pruning algorithms are introduced to detect bad junctions and noisy branches often associated with digital geometric and topologic analysis. Also, a new notion of shortest axial path is introduced to improve the skeletal arc joining two junctions. The accuracy of the multi-level tree analysis algorithm has been evaluated using computer generated phantoms and pulmonary CT images of a pig vessel cast phantom while the reproducibility of method is evaluated using multi-user A/V separation of in vivo contrast-enhanced CT images of a pig lung at different respiratory volumes.
[A SAS marco program for batch processing of univariate Cox regression analysis for great database].
Yang, Rendong; Xiong, Jie; Peng, Yangqin; Peng, Xiaoning; Zeng, Xiaomin
2015-02-01
To realize batch processing of univariate Cox regression analysis for great database by SAS marco program. We wrote a SAS macro program, which can filter, integrate, and export P values to Excel by SAS9.2. The program was used for screening survival correlated RNA molecules of ovarian cancer. A SAS marco program could finish the batch processing of univariate Cox regression analysis, the selection and export of the results. The SAS macro program has potential applications in reducing the workload of statistical analysis and providing a basis for batch processing of univariate Cox regression analysis.
Hydrochemical analysis of groundwater using a tree-based model
Litaor, M. Iggy; Brielmann, H.; Reichmann, O.; Shenker, M.
2010-06-01
SummaryHydrochemical indices are commonly used to ascertain aquifer characteristics, salinity problems, anthropogenic inputs and resource management, among others. This study was conducted to test the applicability of a binary decision tree model to aquifer evaluation using hydrochemical indices as input. The main advantage of the tree-based model compared to other commonly used statistical procedures such as cluster and factor analyses is the ability to classify groundwater samples with assigned probability and the reduction of a large data set into a few significant variables without creating new factors. We tested the model using data sets collected from headwater springs of the Jordan River, Israel. The model evaluation consisted of several levels of complexity, from simple separation between the calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate water type of karstic aquifers to the more challenging separation of calcium-sodium-bicarbonate water type flowing through perched and regional basaltic aquifers. In all cases, the model assigned measures for goodness of fit in the form of misclassification errors and singled out the most significant variable in the analysis. The model proceeded through a sequence of partitions providing insight into different possible pathways and changing lithology. The model results were extremely useful in constraining the interpretation of geological heterogeneity and constructing a conceptual flow model for a given aquifer. The tree model clearly identified the hydrochemical indices that were excluded from the analysis, thus providing information that can lead to a decrease in the number of routinely analyzed variables and a significant reduction in laboratory cost.
Modular techniques for dynamic fault-tree analysis
Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Dugan, Joanne B.
1992-01-01
It is noted that current approaches used to assess the dependability of complex systems such as Space Station Freedom and the Air Traffic Control System are incapable of handling the size and complexity of these highly integrated designs. A novel technique for modeling such systems which is built upon current techniques in Markov theory and combinatorial analysis is described. It enables the development of a hierarchical representation of system behavior which is more flexible than either technique alone. A solution strategy which is based on an object-oriented approach to model representation and evaluation is discussed. The technique is virtually transparent to the user since the fault tree models can be built graphically and the objects defined automatically. The tree modularization procedure allows the two model types, Markov and combinatoric, to coexist and does not require that the entire fault tree be translated to a Markov chain for evaluation. This effectively reduces the size of the Markov chain required and enables solutions with less truncation, making analysis of longer mission times possible. Using the fault-tolerant parallel processor as an example, a model is built and solved for a specific mission scenario and the solution approach is illustrated in detail.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Greve, Mogens Humlekrog; Bou Kheir, Rania; Greve, Mette Balslev
2012-01-01
Soil texture is an important soil characteristic that drives crop production and field management, and is the basis for environmental monitoring (including soil quality and sustainability, hydrological and ecological processes, and climate change simulations). The combination of coarse sand, fine...... sand, silt, and clay in soil determines its textural classification. This study used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and regression-tree modeling to precisely quantify the relationships between the soil texture fractions and different environmental parameters on a national scale, and to detect...... precipitation, seasonal precipitation to statistically explain soil texture fractions field/laboratory measurements (45,224 sampling sites) in the area of interest (Denmark). The developed strongest relationships were associated with clay and silt, variance being equal to 60%, followed by coarse sand (54...
TH-EF-BRC-03: Fault Tree Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thomadsen, B. [University of Wisconsin (United States)
2016-06-15
This Hands-on Workshop will be focused on providing participants with experience with the principal tools of TG 100 and hence start to build both competence and confidence in the use of risk-based quality management techniques. The three principal tools forming the basis of TG 100’s risk analysis: Process mapping, Failure-Modes and Effects Analysis and fault-tree analysis will be introduced with a 5 minute refresher presentation and each presentation will be followed by a 30 minute small group exercise. An exercise on developing QM from the risk analysis follows. During the exercise periods, participants will apply the principles in 2 different clinical scenarios. At the conclusion of each exercise there will be ample time for participants to discuss with each other and the faculty their experience and any challenges encountered. Learning Objectives: To review the principles of Process Mapping, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis. To gain familiarity with these three techniques in a small group setting. To share and discuss experiences with the three techniques with faculty and participants. Director, TreatSafely, LLC. Director, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences. Occasional Consultant to the IAEA and Varian.
TH-EF-BRC-03: Fault Tree Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thomadsen, B.
2016-01-01
This Hands-on Workshop will be focused on providing participants with experience with the principal tools of TG 100 and hence start to build both competence and confidence in the use of risk-based quality management techniques. The three principal tools forming the basis of TG 100’s risk analysis: Process mapping, Failure-Modes and Effects Analysis and fault-tree analysis will be introduced with a 5 minute refresher presentation and each presentation will be followed by a 30 minute small group exercise. An exercise on developing QM from the risk analysis follows. During the exercise periods, participants will apply the principles in 2 different clinical scenarios. At the conclusion of each exercise there will be ample time for participants to discuss with each other and the faculty their experience and any challenges encountered. Learning Objectives: To review the principles of Process Mapping, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis. To gain familiarity with these three techniques in a small group setting. To share and discuss experiences with the three techniques with faculty and participants. Director, TreatSafely, LLC. Director, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences. Occasional Consultant to the IAEA and Varian.
Kabeshova, A; Annweiler, C; Fantino, B; Philip, T; Gromov, V A; Launay, C P; Beauchet, O
2014-06-01
Regression tree (RT) analyses are particularly adapted to explore the risk of recurrent falling according to various combinations of fall risk factors compared to logistic regression models. The aims of this study were (1) to determine which combinations of fall risk factors were associated with the occurrence of recurrent falls in older community-dwellers, and (2) to compare the efficacy of RT and multiple logistic regression model for the identification of recurrent falls. A total of 1,760 community-dwelling volunteers (mean age ± standard deviation, 71.0 ± 5.1 years; 49.4 % female) were recruited prospectively in this cross-sectional study. Age, gender, polypharmacy, use of psychoactive drugs, fear of falling (FOF), cognitive disorders and sad mood were recorded. In addition, the history of falls within the past year was recorded using a standardized questionnaire. Among 1,760 participants, 19.7 % (n = 346) were recurrent fallers. The RT identified 14 nodes groups and 8 end nodes with FOF as the first major split. Among participants with FOF, those who had sad mood and polypharmacy formed the end node with the greatest OR for recurrent falls (OR = 6.06 with p falls (OR = 0.25 with p factors for recurrent falls, the combination most associated with recurrent falls involving FOF, sad mood and polypharmacy. The FOF emerged as the risk factor strongly associated with recurrent falls. In addition, RT and multiple logistic regression were not sensitive enough to identify the majority of recurrent fallers but appeared efficient in detecting individuals not at risk of recurrent falls.
Development of a User Interface for a Regression Analysis Software Tool
Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred; Volden, Thomas R.
2010-01-01
An easy-to -use user interface was implemented in a highly automated regression analysis tool. The user interface was developed from the start to run on computers that use the Windows, Macintosh, Linux, or UNIX operating system. Many user interface features were specifically designed such that a novice or inexperienced user can apply the regression analysis tool with confidence. Therefore, the user interface s design minimizes interactive input from the user. In addition, reasonable default combinations are assigned to those analysis settings that influence the outcome of the regression analysis. These default combinations will lead to a successful regression analysis result for most experimental data sets. The user interface comes in two versions. The text user interface version is used for the ongoing development of the regression analysis tool. The official release of the regression analysis tool, on the other hand, has a graphical user interface that is more efficient to use. This graphical user interface displays all input file names, output file names, and analysis settings for a specific software application mode on a single screen which makes it easier to generate reliable analysis results and to perform input parameter studies. An object-oriented approach was used for the development of the graphical user interface. This choice keeps future software maintenance costs to a reasonable limit. Examples of both the text user interface and graphical user interface are discussed in order to illustrate the user interface s overall design approach.
Robust analysis of trends in noisy tokamak confinement data using geodesic least squares regression
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Verdoolaege, G., E-mail: geert.verdoolaege@ugent.be [Department of Applied Physics, Ghent University, B-9000 Ghent (Belgium); Laboratory for Plasma Physics, Royal Military Academy, B-1000 Brussels (Belgium); Shabbir, A. [Department of Applied Physics, Ghent University, B-9000 Ghent (Belgium); Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, Boltzmannstr. 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); Hornung, G. [Department of Applied Physics, Ghent University, B-9000 Ghent (Belgium)
2016-11-15
Regression analysis is a very common activity in fusion science for unveiling trends and parametric dependencies, but it can be a difficult matter. We have recently developed the method of geodesic least squares (GLS) regression that is able to handle errors in all variables, is robust against data outliers and uncertainty in the regression model, and can be used with arbitrary distribution models and regression functions. We here report on first results of application of GLS to estimation of the multi-machine scaling law for the energy confinement time in tokamaks, demonstrating improved consistency of the GLS results compared to standard least squares.
Understanding Boswellia papyrifera tree secondary metabolites through bark spectral analysis
Girma, A.; Skidmore, A.K.; Bie, de C.A.J.M.; Bongers, F.
2015-01-01
Decision makers are concerned whether to tap or rest Boswellia Papyrifera trees. Tapping for the production of frankincense is known to deplete carbon reserves from the tree leading to production of less viable seeds, tree carbon starvation and ultimately tree mortality. Decision makers use
Retrospective evaluation of tritium fallout by tree-ring analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kozak, K.; Biro, T.; Golder, F.; Rank, D.; Rajner, V.; Staudner, F.
1993-01-01
Tritium analyses of tree-ring cellulose were made to test its suitability for retrospective evaluation of a local tritium fallout. Several spruce trees were taken from an Austrian alpine area where tritium contamination of May 1974 precipitation had been detected. Wood from the annual growth rings of 1973, 1974 and 1975 was separated and the cellulose extracted. After isotopic equilibration with dead water, cellulose was combusted to yield water, whose tritium concentration was measured by liquid scintillation counting. Rigorous statistical treatment proved the significance of the increased tritium concentration caused by the tritium anomaly, which occurred during the growing season. The long-term trends of local atmospheric tritium, including the 1974 peak, were also well reflected by analysis of a 24-year ring sequence from a single tree in the contaminated area. The tritium data gained by the given method can be used at present qualitatively and a better understanding of the possible sources of contamination is required in order that the quantitative criteria be satisfied. (Author)
Quality of life in breast cancer patients--a quantile regression analysis.
Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin; Safaee, Azadeh; Moghimi-Dehkordi, Bijan; Zeighami, Bahram; Faghihzadeh, Soghrat; Tabatabaee, Hamid Reza; Pourhoseingholi, Asma
2008-01-01
Quality of life study has an important role in health care especially in chronic diseases, in clinical judgment and in medical resources supplying. Statistical tools like linear regression are widely used to assess the predictors of quality of life. But when the response is not normal the results are misleading. The aim of this study is to determine the predictors of quality of life in breast cancer patients, using quantile regression model and compare to linear regression. A cross-sectional study conducted on 119 breast cancer patients that admitted and treated in chemotherapy ward of Namazi hospital in Shiraz. We used QLQ-C30 questionnaire to assessment quality of life in these patients. A quantile regression was employed to assess the assocciated factors and the results were compared to linear regression. All analysis carried out using SAS. The mean score for the global health status for breast cancer patients was 64.92+/-11.42. Linear regression showed that only grade of tumor, occupational status, menopausal status, financial difficulties and dyspnea were statistically significant. In spite of linear regression, financial difficulties were not significant in quantile regression analysis and dyspnea was only significant for first quartile. Also emotion functioning and duration of disease statistically predicted the QOL score in the third quartile. The results have demonstrated that using quantile regression leads to better interpretation and richer inference about predictors of the breast cancer patient quality of life.
Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Purba, Julwan Hendry; Sony Tjahyani, D.T.; Ekariansyah, Andi Sofrany; Tjahjono, Hendro
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis is to evaluate epistemic uncertainty in fuzzy fault tree analysis. • Fuzzy probabilities represent likelihood occurrences of all events in a fault tree. • A fuzzy multiplication rule quantifies epistemic uncertainty of minimal cut sets. • A fuzzy complement rule estimate epistemic uncertainty of the top event. • The proposed FPFTA has successfully evaluated the U.S. Combustion Engineering RPS. - Abstract: A number of fuzzy fault tree analysis approaches, which integrate fuzzy concepts into the quantitative phase of conventional fault tree analysis, have been proposed to study reliabilities of engineering systems. Those new approaches apply expert judgments to overcome the limitation of the conventional fault tree analysis when basic events do not have probability distributions. Since expert judgments might come with epistemic uncertainty, it is important to quantify the overall uncertainties of the fuzzy fault tree analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used to quantify the overall uncertainties of conventional fault tree analysis. However, since Monte Carlo simulation is based on probability distribution, this technique is not appropriate for fuzzy fault tree analysis, which is based on fuzzy probabilities. The objective of this study is to develop a fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to overcome the limitation of fuzzy fault tree analysis. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, a case study is performed and its results are then compared to the results analyzed by a conventional fault tree analysis. The results confirm that the proposed fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis is feasible to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainties in fault tree analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shalev, Dan M.; Tiran, Joseph
2007-01-01
Condition-based maintenance methods have changed systems reliability in general and individual systems in particular. Yet, this change does not affect system reliability analysis. System fault tree analysis (FTA) is performed during the design phase. It uses components failure rates derived from available sources as handbooks, etc. Condition-based fault tree analysis (CBFTA) starts with the known FTA. Condition monitoring (CM) methods applied to systems (e.g. vibration analysis, oil analysis, electric current analysis, bearing CM, electric motor CM, and so forth) are used to determine updated failure rate values of sensitive components. The CBFTA method accepts updated failure rates and applies them to the FTA. The CBFTA recalculates periodically the top event (TE) failure rate (λ TE ) thus determining the probability of system failure and the probability of successful system operation-i.e. the system's reliability. FTA is a tool for enhancing system reliability during the design stages. But, it has disadvantages, mainly it does not relate to a specific system undergoing maintenance. CBFTA is tool for updating reliability values of a specific system and for calculating the residual life according to the system's monitored conditions. Using CBFTA, the original FTA is ameliorated to a practical tool for use during the system's field life phase, not just during system design phase. This paper describes the CBFTA method and its advantages are demonstrated by an example
Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging: the impact of regression analysis.
Yeh, Chia-Jung; Tseng, Yu-Sheng; Lin, Yi-Ru; Tsai, Shang-Yueh; Huang, Teng-Yi
2015-01-01
To investigate the impact of regression methods on resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI). During rsfMRI preprocessing, regression analysis is considered effective for reducing the interference of physiological noise on the signal time course. However, it is unclear whether the regression method benefits rsfMRI analysis. Twenty volunteers (10 men and 10 women; aged 23.4 ± 1.5 years) participated in the experiments. We used node analysis and functional connectivity mapping to assess the brain default mode network by using five combinations of regression methods. The results show that regressing the global mean plays a major role in the preprocessing steps. When a global regression method is applied, the values of functional connectivity are significantly lower (P ≤ .01) than those calculated without a global regression. This step increases inter-subject variation and produces anticorrelated brain areas. rsfMRI data processed using regression should be interpreted carefully. The significance of the anticorrelated brain areas produced by global signal removal is unclear. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society of Neuroimaging.
Nishidate, Izumi; Wiswadarma, Aditya; Hase, Yota; Tanaka, Noriyuki; Maeda, Takaaki; Niizeki, Kyuichi; Aizu, Yoshihisa
2011-08-01
In order to visualize melanin and blood concentrations and oxygen saturation in human skin tissue, a simple imaging technique based on multispectral diffuse reflectance images acquired at six wavelengths (500, 520, 540, 560, 580 and 600nm) was developed. The technique utilizes multiple regression analysis aided by Monte Carlo simulation for diffuse reflectance spectra. Using the absorbance spectrum as a response variable and the extinction coefficients of melanin, oxygenated hemoglobin, and deoxygenated hemoglobin as predictor variables, multiple regression analysis provides regression coefficients. Concentrations of melanin and total blood are then determined from the regression coefficients using conversion vectors that are deduced numerically in advance, while oxygen saturation is obtained directly from the regression coefficients. Experiments with a tissue-like agar gel phantom validated the method. In vivo experiments with human skin of the human hand during upper limb occlusion and of the inner forearm exposed to UV irradiation demonstrated the ability of the method to evaluate physiological reactions of human skin tissue.
DIF Trees: Using Classification Trees to Detect Differential Item Functioning
Vaughn, Brandon K.; Wang, Qiu
2010-01-01
A nonparametric tree classification procedure is used to detect differential item functioning for items that are dichotomously scored. Classification trees are shown to be an alternative procedure to detect differential item functioning other than the use of traditional Mantel-Haenszel and logistic regression analysis. A nonparametric…
Zarb, Francis; McEntee, Mark F; Rainford, Louise
2015-06-01
To evaluate visual grading characteristics (VGC) and ordinal regression analysis during head CT optimisation as a potential alternative to visual grading assessment (VGA), traditionally employed to score anatomical visualisation. Patient images (n = 66) were obtained using current and optimised imaging protocols from two CT suites: a 16-slice scanner at the national Maltese centre for trauma and a 64-slice scanner in a private centre. Local resident radiologists (n = 6) performed VGA followed by VGC and ordinal regression analysis. VGC alone indicated that optimised protocols had similar image quality as current protocols. Ordinal logistic regression analysis provided an in-depth evaluation, criterion by criterion allowing the selective implementation of the protocols. The local radiology review panel supported the implementation of optimised protocols for brain CT examinations (including trauma) in one centre, achieving radiation dose reductions ranging from 24 % to 36 %. In the second centre a 29 % reduction in radiation dose was achieved for follow-up cases. The combined use of VGC and ordinal logistic regression analysis led to clinical decisions being taken on the implementation of the optimised protocols. This improved method of image quality analysis provided the evidence to support imaging protocol optimisation, resulting in significant radiation dose savings. • There is need for scientifically based image quality evaluation during CT optimisation. • VGC and ordinal regression analysis in combination led to better informed clinical decisions. • VGC and ordinal regression analysis led to dose reductions without compromising diagnostic efficacy.
Hartmann, Frank G.H.; Moers, Frank
1999-01-01
In the contingency literature on the behavioral and organizational effects of budgeting, use of the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) technique is prevalent. This technique is used to test contingency hypotheses that predict interaction effects between budgetary and contextual variables. This
Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen; Neil Shephard
2002-01-01
This paper analyses multivariate high frequency financial data using realised covariation. We provide a new asymptotic distribution theory for standard methods such as regression, correlation analysis and covariance. It will be based on a fixed interval of time (e.g. a day or week), allowing the number of high frequency returns during this period to go to infinity. Our analysis allows us to study how high frequency correlations, regressions and covariances change through time. In particular w...
The effect of contaminated groundwater on tree growth: A tree-ring analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
LeBlanc, D.C.; Loehle, C.
1990-10-01
A study was conducted on the effect of contaminated groundwater seepage on tree growth downslope from F- and H-Area seepage basins of the Savannah River Site. Trees in wetlands along Four Mile Creek began to show localized stress and mortality in the late 1970s. Extreme winter temperatures and high rainfall were ruled out as potential causal factors of tree stress. Drought was shown to affect trees in both contaminated and uncontaminated zones, but trees in uncontaminated areas exhibit better recovery after drought than trees in contaminated areas. Pollution-mediated alteration of soil acidity and aluminum, sodium, and heavy metal concentrations likely acted to predispose trees to decline, with severe drought acting as the trigger for decline initiation and tree death. Thus, a moderate pollution loading, not sufficient to cause visible damage of itself, may create conditions in which sudden, severe decline could result from natural stresses. This mechanism of forest decline is common, and should be considered in evaluations of the impact of pollution on wetland forest systems. 28 refs., 4 figs., 6 tabs
RELOSS, Reliability of Safety System by Fault Tree Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Allan, R.N.; Rondiris, I.L.; Adraktas, A.
1981-01-01
1 - Description of problem or function: Program RELOSS is used in the reliability/safety assessment of any complex system with predetermined operational logic in qualitative and (if required) quantitative terms. The program calculates the possible system outcomes following an abnormal operating condition and the probability of occurrence, if required. Furthermore, the program deduces the minimal cut or tie sets of the system outcomes and identifies the potential common mode failures. 4. Method of solution: The reliability analysis performed by the program is based on the event tree methodology. Using this methodology, the program develops the event tree of a system or a module of that system and relates each path of this tree to its qualitative and/or quantitative impact on specified system or module outcomes. If the system being analysed is subdivided into modules the program assesses each module in turn as described previously and then combines the module information to obtain results for the overall system. Having developed the event tree of a module or a system, the program identifies which paths lead or do not lead to various outcomes depending on whether the cut or the tie sets of the outcomes are required and deduces the corresponding sets. Furthermore the program identifies for a specific system outcome, the potential common mode failures and the cut or tie sets containing potential dependent failures of some components. 5. Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The present dimensions of the program are as follows. They can however be easily modified: Maximum number of modules (equivalent components): 25; Maximum number of components in a module: 15; Maximum number of levels of parentheses in a logical statement: 10 Maximum number of system outcomes: 3; Maximum number of module outcomes: 2; Maximum number of points in time for which quantitative analysis is required: 5; Maximum order of any cut or tie set: 10; Maximum order of a cut or tie of any
Quantitative analysis of a fault tree with priority AND gates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yuge, T.; Yanagi, S.
2008-01-01
A method for calculating the exact top event probability of a fault tree with priority AND gates and repeated basic events is proposed when the minimal cut sets are given. A priority AND gate is an AND gate where the input events must occur in a prescribed order for the occurrence of the output event. It is known that the top event probability of such a dynamic fault tree is obtained by converting the tree into an equivalent Markov model. However, this method is not realistic for a complex system model because the number of states which should be considered in the Markov analysis increases explosively as the number of basic events increases. To overcome the shortcomings of the Markov model, we propose an alternative method to obtain the top event probability in this paper. We assume that the basic events occur independently, exponentially distributed, and the component whose failure corresponds to the occurrence of the basic event is non-repairable. First, we obtain the probability of occurrence of the output event of a single priority AND gate by Markov analysis. Then, the top event probability is given by a cut set approach and the inclusion-exclusion formula. An efficient procedure to obtain the probabilities corresponding to logical products in the inclusion-exclusion formula is proposed. The logical product which is composed of two or more priority AND gates having at least one common basic event as their inputs is transformed into the sum of disjoint events which are equivalent to a priority AND gate in the procedure. Numerical examples show that our method works well for complex systems
Hossain, Md Golam; Saw, Aik; Alam, Rashidul; Ohtsuki, Fumio; Kamarul, Tunku
2013-09-01
Cephalic index (CI), the ratio of head breadth to head length, is widely used to categorise human populations. The aim of this study was to access the impact of anthropometric measurements on the CI of male Japanese university students. This study included 1,215 male university students from Tokyo and Kyoto, selected using convenient sampling. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine the effect of anthropometric measurements on CI. The variance inflation factor (VIF) showed no evidence of a multicollinearity problem among independent variables. The coefficients of the regression line demonstrated a significant positive relationship between CI and minimum frontal breadth (p regression analysis showed a greater likelihood for minimum frontal breadth (p regression analysis revealed bizygomatic breadth, head circumference, minimum frontal breadth, head height and morphological facial height to be the best predictor craniofacial measurements with respect to CI. The results suggest that most of the variables considered in this study appear to influence the CI of adult male Japanese students.
Fault tree analysis on BWR core spray system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Watanabe, Norio
1982-06-01
Fault Trees which describe the failure modes for the Core Spray System function in the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant (BWR 1065MWe) were developed qualitatively and quantitatively. The unavailability for the Core Spray System was estimated to be 1.2 x 10 - 3 /demand. It was found that the miscalibration of four reactor pressure sensors or the failure to open of the two inboard valves (FCV 75-25 and 75-53) could reduce system reliability significantly. It was recommended that the pressure sensors would be calibrated independently. The introduction of the redundant inboard valves could improve the system reliability. Thus this analysis method was verified useful for system analysis. The detailed test and maintenance manual and the informations on the control logic circuits of each active component are necessary for further analysis. (author)
Enterprise architecture availability analysis using fault trees and stakeholder interviews
Närman, Per; Franke, Ulrik; König, Johan; Buschle, Markus; Ekstedt, Mathias
2014-01-01
The availability of enterprise information systems is a key concern for many organisations. This article describes a method for availability analysis based on Fault Tree Analysis and constructs from the ArchiMate enterprise architecture (EA) language. To test the quality of the method, several case-studies within the banking and electrical utility industries were performed. Input data were collected through stakeholder interviews. The results from the case studies were compared with availability of log data to determine the accuracy of the method's predictions. In the five cases where accurate log data were available, the yearly downtime estimates were within eight hours from the actual downtimes. The cost of performing the analysis was low; no case study required more than 20 man-hours of work, making the method ideal for practitioners with an interest in obtaining rapid availability estimates of their enterprise information systems.
Krishan, Kewal; Kanchan, Tanuj; Sharma, Abhilasha
2012-05-01
Estimation of stature is an important parameter in identification of human remains in forensic examinations. The present study is aimed to compare the reliability and accuracy of stature estimation and to demonstrate the variability in estimated stature and actual stature using multiplication factor and regression analysis methods. The study is based on a sample of 246 subjects (123 males and 123 females) from North India aged between 17 and 20 years. Four anthropometric measurements; hand length, hand breadth, foot length and foot breadth taken on the left side in each subject were included in the study. Stature was measured using standard anthropometric techniques. Multiplication factors were calculated and linear regression models were derived for estimation of stature from hand and foot dimensions. Derived multiplication factors and regression formula were applied to the hand and foot measurements in the study sample. The estimated stature from the multiplication factors and regression analysis was compared with the actual stature to find the error in estimated stature. The results indicate that the range of error in estimation of stature from regression analysis method is less than that of multiplication factor method thus, confirming that the regression analysis method is better than multiplication factor analysis in stature estimation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haasl, D.; Young, J.
1985-08-01
This course will employ a combination of lecture material and practical problem solving in order to develop competence and understanding of th principles and techniques of event tree and fault tree analysis. The role of these techniques in the overall context of PRA will be described. The emphasis of this course will be on the basic, traditional methods of event tree and fault tree analysis
A primer for biomedical scientists on how to execute model II linear regression analysis.
Ludbrook, John
2012-04-01
1. There are two very different ways of executing linear regression analysis. One is Model I, when the x-values are fixed by the experimenter. The other is Model II, in which the x-values are free to vary and are subject to error. 2. I have received numerous complaints from biomedical scientists that they have great difficulty in executing Model II linear regression analysis. This may explain the results of a Google Scholar search, which showed that the authors of articles in journals of physiology, pharmacology and biochemistry rarely use Model II regression analysis. 3. I repeat my previous arguments in favour of using least products linear regression analysis for Model II regressions. I review three methods for executing ordinary least products (OLP) and weighted least products (WLP) regression analysis: (i) scientific calculator and/or computer spreadsheet; (ii) specific purpose computer programs; and (iii) general purpose computer programs. 4. Using a scientific calculator and/or computer spreadsheet, it is easy to obtain correct values for OLP slope and intercept, but the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) are inaccurate. 5. Using specific purpose computer programs, the freeware computer program smatr gives the correct OLP regression coefficients and obtains 95% CI by bootstrapping. In addition, smatr can be used to compare the slopes of OLP lines. 6. When using general purpose computer programs, I recommend the commercial programs systat and Statistica for those who regularly undertake linear regression analysis and I give step-by-step instructions in the Supplementary Information as to how to use loss functions. © 2011 The Author. Clinical and Experimental Pharmacology and Physiology. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.
Detecting overdispersion in count data: A zero-inflated Poisson regression analysis
Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti; Asrul Affendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Nor, Maria Elena; Mohamed, Maryati; Ismail, Norradihah
2017-09-01
This study focusing on analysing count data of butterflies communities in Jasin, Melaka. In analysing count dependent variable, the Poisson regression model has been known as a benchmark model for regression analysis. Continuing from the previous literature that used Poisson regression analysis, this study comprising the used of zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression analysis to gain acute precision on analysing the count data of butterfly communities in Jasin, Melaka. On the other hands, Poisson regression should be abandoned in the favour of count data models, which are capable of taking into account the extra zeros explicitly. By far, one of the most popular models include ZIP regression model. The data of butterfly communities which had been called as the number of subjects in this study had been taken in Jasin, Melaka and consisted of 131 number of subjects visits Jasin, Melaka. Since the researchers are considering the number of subjects, this data set consists of five families of butterfly and represent the five variables involve in the analysis which are the types of subjects. Besides, the analysis of ZIP used the SAS procedure of overdispersion in analysing zeros value and the main purpose of continuing the previous study is to compare which models would be better than when exists zero values for the observation of the count data. The analysis used AIC, BIC and Voung test of 5% level significance in order to achieve the objectives. The finding indicates that there is a presence of over-dispersion in analysing zero value. The ZIP regression model is better than Poisson regression model when zero values exist.
Analysis of γ spectra in airborne radioactivity measurements using multiple linear regressions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bao Min; Shi Quanlin; Zhang Jiamei
2004-01-01
This paper describes the net peak counts calculating of nuclide 137 Cs at 662 keV of γ spectra in airborne radioactivity measurements using multiple linear regressions. Mathematic model is founded by analyzing every factor that has contribution to Cs peak counts in spectra, and multiple linear regression function is established. Calculating process adopts stepwise regression, and the indistinctive factors are eliminated by F check. The regression results and its uncertainty are calculated using Least Square Estimation, then the Cs peak net counts and its uncertainty can be gotten. The analysis results for experimental spectrum are displayed. The influence of energy shift and energy resolution on the analyzing result is discussed. In comparison with the stripping spectra method, multiple linear regression method needn't stripping radios, and the calculating result has relation with the counts in Cs peak only, and the calculating uncertainty is reduced. (authors)
Application of subset simulation methods to dynamic fault tree analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu Mengyun; Liu Jingquan; She Ding
2015-01-01
Although fault tree analysis has been implemented in the nuclear safety field over the past few decades, it was recently criticized for the inability to model the time-dependent behaviors. Several methods are proposed to overcome this disadvantage, and dynamic fault tree (DFT) has become one of the research highlights. By introducing additional dynamic gates, DFT is able to describe the dynamic behaviors like the replacement of spare components or the priority of failure events. Using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach to solve DFT has obtained rising attention, because it can model the authentic behaviors of systems and avoid the limitations in the analytical method. In this paper, it provides an overview and MCS information for DFT analysis, including the sampling of basic events and the propagation rule for logic gates. When calculating rare-event probability, large amount of simulations in standard MCS are required. To improve the weakness, subset simulation (SS) approach is applied. Using the concept of conditional probability and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique, the SS method is able to accelerate the efficiency of exploring the failure region. Two cases are tested to illustrate the performance of SS approach, and the numerical results suggest that it gives high efficiency when calculating complicated systems with small failure probabilities. (author)
TU-AB-BRD-03: Fault Tree Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dunscombe, P.
2015-01-01
Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to
TU-AB-BRD-03: Fault Tree Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dunscombe, P. [University of Calgary (Canada)
2015-06-15
Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to
Evaluating Non-Linear Regression Models in Analysis of Persian Walnut Fruit Growth
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I. Karamatlou
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Persian walnut (Juglans regia L. is a large, wind-pollinated, monoecious, dichogamous, long lived, perennial tree cultivated for its high quality wood and nuts throughout the temperate regions of the world. Growth model methodology has been widely used in the modeling of plant growth. Mathematical models are important tools to study the plant growth and agricultural systems. These models can be applied for decision-making anddesigning management procedures in horticulture. Through growth analysis, planning for planting systems, fertilization, pruning operations, harvest time as well as obtaining economical yield can be more accessible.Non-linear models are more difficult to specify and estimate than linear models. This research was aimed to studynon-linear regression models based on data obtained from fruit weight, length and width. Selecting the best models which explain that fruit inherent growth pattern of Persian walnut was a further goal of this study. Materials and Methods: The experimental material comprising 14 Persian walnut genotypes propagated by seed collected from a walnut orchard in Golestan province, Minoudasht region, Iran, at latitude 37◦04’N; longitude 55◦32’E; altitude 1060 m, in a silt loam soil type. These genotypes were selected as a representative sampling of the many walnut genotypes available throughout the Northeastern Iran. The age range of walnut trees was 30 to 50 years. The annual mean temperature at the location is16.3◦C, with annual mean rainfall of 690 mm.The data used here is the average of walnut fresh fruit and measured withgram/millimeter/day in2011.According to the data distribution pattern, several equations have been proposed to describesigmoidal growth patterns. Here, we used double-sigmoid and logistic–monomolecular models to evaluate fruit growth based on fruit weight and4different regression models in cluding Richards, Gompertz, Logistic and Exponential growth for evaluation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Deng, Yangyang; Parajuli, Prem B.
2011-08-10
Evaluation of economic feasibility of a bio-gasification facility needs understanding of its unit cost under different production capacities. The objective of this study was to evaluate the unit cost of syngas production at capacities from 60 through 1800Nm 3/h using an economic model with three regression analysis techniques (simple regression, reciprocal regression, and log-log regression). The preliminary result of this study showed that reciprocal regression analysis technique had the best fit curve between per unit cost and production capacity, with sum of error squares (SES) lower than 0.001 and coefficient of determination of (R 2) 0.996. The regression analysis techniques determined the minimum unit cost of syngas production for micro-scale bio-gasification facilities of $0.052/Nm 3, under the capacity of 2,880 Nm 3/h. The results of this study suggest that to reduce cost, facilities should run at a high production capacity. In addition, the contribution of this technique could be the new categorical criterion to evaluate micro-scale bio-gasification facility from the perspective of economic analysis.
Zhou, Yan; Wang, Pei; Wang, Xianlong; Zhu, Ji; Song, Peter X-K
2017-01-01
The multivariate regression model is a useful tool to explore complex associations between two kinds of molecular markers, which enables the understanding of the biological pathways underlying disease etiology. For a set of correlated response variables, accounting for such dependency can increase statistical power. Motivated by integrative genomic data analyses, we propose a new methodology-sparse multivariate factor analysis regression model (smFARM), in which correlations of response variables are assumed to follow a factor analysis model with latent factors. This proposed method not only allows us to address the challenge that the number of association parameters is larger than the sample size, but also to adjust for unobserved genetic and/or nongenetic factors that potentially conceal the underlying response-predictor associations. The proposed smFARM is implemented by the EM algorithm and the blockwise coordinate descent algorithm. The proposed methodology is evaluated and compared to the existing methods through extensive simulation studies. Our results show that accounting for latent factors through the proposed smFARM can improve sensitivity of signal detection and accuracy of sparse association map estimation. We illustrate smFARM by two integrative genomics analysis examples, a breast cancer dataset, and an ovarian cancer dataset, to assess the relationship between DNA copy numbers and gene expression arrays to understand genetic regulatory patterns relevant to the disease. We identify two trans-hub regions: one in cytoband 17q12 whose amplification influences the RNA expression levels of important breast cancer genes, and the other in cytoband 9q21.32-33, which is associated with chemoresistance in ovarian cancer. © 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.
City of Berkeley, California Municipal Tree Resource Analysis
S.E. Maco; E.G. McPherson; J.R. Simpson; P.J. Peper; Q. Xiao
2005-01-01
Vibrant, renowned for its livability and cultural wealth, the city of Berkeley maintains trees as an integral component of the urban infrastructure. Research indicates that healthy trees can mitigate impacts associated with the built environment by reducing stormwater runoff, energy consumption, and air pollutants. Put simply, trees improve urban life, making Berkeley...
Toward a theory of statistical tree-shape analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Feragen, Aasa; Lo, Pechin Chien Pau; de Bruijne, Marleen
2013-01-01
In order to develop statistical methods for shapes with a tree-structure, we construct a shape space framework for tree-shapes and study metrics on the shape space. This shape space has singularities, which correspond to topological transitions in the represented trees. We study two closely relat...
Covariate Imbalance and Adjustment for Logistic Regression Analysis of Clinical Trial Data
Ciolino, Jody D.; Martin, Reneé H.; Zhao, Wenle; Jauch, Edward C.; Hill, Michael D.; Palesch, Yuko Y.
2014-01-01
In logistic regression analysis for binary clinical trial data, adjusted treatment effect estimates are often not equivalent to unadjusted estimates in the presence of influential covariates. This paper uses simulation to quantify the benefit of covariate adjustment in logistic regression. However, International Conference on Harmonization guidelines suggest that covariate adjustment be pre-specified. Unplanned adjusted analyses should be considered secondary. Results suggest that that if adjustment is not possible or unplanned in a logistic setting, balance in continuous covariates can alleviate some (but never all) of the shortcomings of unadjusted analyses. The case of log binomial regression is also explored. PMID:24138438
Regression analysis understanding and building business and economic models using Excel
Wilson, J Holton
2012-01-01
The technique of regression analysis is used so often in business and economics today that an understanding of its use is necessary for almost everyone engaged in the field. This book will teach you the essential elements of building and understanding regression models in a business/economic context in an intuitive manner. The authors take a non-theoretical treatment that is accessible even if you have a limited statistical background. It is specifically designed to teach the correct use of regression, while advising you of its limitations and teaching about common pitfalls. This book describe
PL-MOD: a computer code for modular fault tree analysis and evaluation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Olmos, J.; Wolf, L.
1978-01-01
The computer code PL-MOD has been developed to implement the modular methodology to fault tree analysis. In the modular approach, fault tree structures are characterized by recursively relating the top tree event to all basic event inputs through a set of equations, each defining an independent modular event for the tree. The advantages of tree modularization lie in that it is a more compact representation than the minimal cut-set description and in that it is well suited for fault tree quantification because of its recursive form. In its present version, PL-MOD modularizes fault trees and evaluates top and intermediate event failure probabilities, as well as basic component and modular event importance measures, in a very efficient way. Thus, its execution time for the modularization and quantification of a PWR High Pressure Injection System reduced fault tree was 25 times faster than that necessary to generate its equivalent minimal cut-set description using the computer code MOCUS
Bayesian Analysis for Dynamic Generalized Linear Latent Model with Application to Tree Survival Rate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yu-sheng Cheng
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Logistic regression model is the most popular regression technique, available for modeling categorical data especially for dichotomous variables. Classic logistic regression model is typically used to interpret relationship between response variables and explanatory variables. However, in real applications, most data sets are collected in follow-up, which leads to the temporal correlation among the data. In order to characterize the different variables correlations, a new method about the latent variables is introduced in this study. At the same time, the latent variables about AR (1 model are used to depict time dependence. In the framework of Bayesian analysis, parameters estimates and statistical inferences are carried out via Gibbs sampler with Metropolis-Hastings (MH algorithm. Model comparison, based on the Bayes factor, and forecasting/smoothing of the survival rate of the tree are established. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method and a pika data set is analyzed to illustrate the real application. Since Bayes factor approaches vary significantly, efficiency tests have been performed in order to decide which solution provides a better tool for the analysis of real relational data sets.
A multiple regression analysis for accurate background subtraction in 99Tcm-DTPA renography
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Middleton, G.W.; Thomson, W.H.; Davies, I.H.; Morgan, A.
1989-01-01
A technique for accurate background subtraction in 99 Tc m -DTPA renography is described. The technique is based on a multiple regression analysis of the renal curves and separate heart and soft tissue curves which together represent background activity. It is compared, in over 100 renograms, with a previously described linear regression technique. Results show that the method provides accurate background subtraction, even in very poorly functioning kidneys, thus enabling relative renal filtration and excretion to be accurately estimated. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hulsteijn, Leonie T. van; Corssmit, Eleonora P.M.; Coremans, Ida E.M.; Smit, Johannes W.A.; Jansen, Jeroen C.; Dekkers, Olaf M.
2013-01-01
The primary treatment goal of radiotherapy for paragangliomas of the head and neck region (HNPGLs) is local control of the tumor, i.e. stabilization of tumor volume. Interestingly, regression of tumor volume has also been reported. Up to the present, no meta-analysis has been performed giving an overview of regression rates after radiotherapy in HNPGLs. The main objective was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess regression of tumor volume in HNPGL-patients after radiotherapy. A second outcome was local tumor control. Design of the study is systematic review and meta-analysis. PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, COCHRANE and Academic Search Premier and references of key articles were searched in March 2012 to identify potentially relevant studies. Considering the indolent course of HNPGLs, only studies with ⩾12 months follow-up were eligible. Main outcomes were the pooled proportions of regression and local control after radiotherapy as initial, combined (i.e. directly post-operatively or post-embolization) or salvage treatment (i.e. after initial treatment has failed) for HNPGLs. A meta-analysis was performed with an exact likelihood approach using a logistic regression with a random effect at the study level. Pooled proportions with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported. Fifteen studies were included, concerning a total of 283 jugulotympanic HNPGLs in 276 patients. Pooled regression proportions for initial, combined and salvage treatment were respectively 21%, 33% and 52% in radiosurgery studies and 4%, 0% and 64% in external beam radiotherapy studies. Pooled local control proportions for radiotherapy as initial, combined and salvage treatment ranged from 79% to 100%. Radiotherapy for jugulotympanic paragangliomas results in excellent local tumor control and therefore is a valuable treatment for these types of tumors. The effects of radiotherapy on regression of tumor volume remain ambiguous, although the data suggest that regression can
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kinnebrock, Silja; Podolskij, Mark
This paper introduces a new estimator to measure the ex-post covariation between high-frequency financial time series under market microstructure noise. We provide an asymptotic limit theory (including feasible central limit theorems) for standard methods such as regression, correlation analysis...... process can be relaxed and how our method can be applied to non-synchronous observations. We also present an empirical study of how high-frequency correlations, regressions and covariances change through time....
Exploratory regression analysis: a tool for selecting models and determining predictor importance.
Braun, Michael T; Oswald, Frederick L
2011-06-01
Linear regression analysis is one of the most important tools in a researcher's toolbox for creating and testing predictive models. Although linear regression analysis indicates how strongly a set of predictor variables, taken together, will predict a relevant criterion (i.e., the multiple R), the analysis cannot indicate which predictors are the most important. Although there is no definitive or unambiguous method for establishing predictor variable importance, there are several accepted methods. This article reviews those methods for establishing predictor importance and provides a program (in Excel) for implementing them (available for direct download at http://dl.dropbox.com/u/2480715/ERA.xlsm?dl=1) . The program investigates all 2(p) - 1 submodels and produces several indices of predictor importance. This exploratory approach to linear regression, similar to other exploratory data analysis techniques, has the potential to yield both theoretical and practical benefits.
Ibanez, C. A. G.; Carcellar, B. G., III; Paringit, E. C.; Argamosa, R. J. L.; Faelga, R. A. G.; Posilero, M. A. V.; Zaragosa, G. P.; Dimayacyac, N. A.
2016-06-01
Diameter-at-Breast-Height Estimation is a prerequisite in various allometric equations estimating important forestry indices like stem volume, basal area, biomass and carbon stock. LiDAR Technology has a means of directly obtaining different forest parameters, except DBH, from the behavior and characteristics of point cloud unique in different forest classes. Extensive tree inventory was done on a two-hectare established sample plot in Mt. Makiling, Laguna for a natural growth forest. Coordinates, height, and canopy cover were measured and types of species were identified to compare to LiDAR derivatives. Multiple linear regression was used to get LiDAR-derived DBH by integrating field-derived DBH and 27 LiDAR-derived parameters at 20m, 10m, and 5m grid resolutions. To know the best combination of parameters in DBH Estimation, all possible combinations of parameters were generated and automated using python scripts and additional regression related libraries such as Numpy, Scipy, and Scikit learn were used. The combination that yields the highest r-squared or coefficient of determination and lowest AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion) and BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) was determined to be the best equation. The equation is at its best using 11 parameters at 10mgrid size and at of 0.604 r-squared, 154.04 AIC and 175.08 BIC. Combination of parameters may differ among forest classes for further studies. Additional statistical tests can be supplemented to help determine the correlation among parameters such as Kaiser- Meyer-Olkin (KMO) Coefficient and the Barlett's Test for Spherecity (BTS).
Sayegh, Arwa; Tate, James E.; Ropkins, Karl
2016-02-01
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) is a major component of photochemical smog and its constituents are considered principal traffic-related pollutants affecting human health. This study investigates the influence of background concentrations of NOx, traffic density, and prevailing meteorological conditions on roadside concentrations of NOx at UK urban, open motorway, and motorway tunnel sites using the statistical approach Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). BRT models have been fitted using hourly concentration, traffic, and meteorological data for each site. The models predict, rank, and visualise the relationship between model variables and roadside NOx concentrations. A strong relationship between roadside NOx and monitored local background concentrations is demonstrated. Relationships between roadside NOx and other model variables have been shown to be strongly influenced by the quality and resolution of background concentrations of NOx, i.e. if it were based on monitored data or modelled prediction. The paper proposes a direct method of using site-specific fundamental diagrams for splitting traffic data into four traffic states: free-flow, busy-flow, congested, and severely congested. Using BRT models, the density of traffic (vehicles per kilometre) was observed to have a proportional influence on the concentrations of roadside NOx, with different fitted regression line slopes for the different traffic states. When other influences are conditioned out, the relationship between roadside concentrations and ambient air temperature suggests NOx concentrations reach a minimum at around 22 °C with high concentrations at low ambient air temperatures which could be associated to restricted atmospheric dispersion and/or to changes in road traffic exhaust emission characteristics at low ambient air temperatures. This paper uses BRT models to study how different critical factors, and their relative importance, influence the variation of roadside NOx concentrations. The paper
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Han, Bing; Jing, Hongyuan; Liu, Jianping; Wu, Zhangzhong [PetroChina Pipeline RandD Center, Langfang, Hebei (China); Hao, Jianbin [School of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan (China)
2010-07-01
Landslides have a serious impact on the integrity of oil and gas pipelines in the tough terrain of Western China. This paper introduces a solving method of axial stress, which uses numerical simulation and regression analysis for the pipelines subjected to landslides. Numerical simulation is performed to analyze the change regularity of pipe stresses for the five vulnerability assessment indexes, which are: the distance between pipeline and landslide tail; the thickness of landslide; the inclination angle of landslide; the pipeline length passing through landslide; and the buried depth of pipeline. A pipeline passing through a certain landslide in southwest China was selected as an example to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of this method. This method has practical applicability, but it would need large numbers of examples to better verify its reliability and should be modified accordingly. Also, it only considers the case where the direction of the pipeline is perpendicular to the primary slip direction of the landslide.
Many units in public housing or other low-income urban dwellings may have elevated pesticide residues, given recurring infestation, but it would be logistically and economically infeasible to sample a large number of units to identify highly exposed households to design interven...
Decision Tree of Occupational Lung Cancer Using Classification and Regression Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tae-Woo Kim
2010-12-01
Conclusion: We found that exposure to lung carcinogens, latency and smoking history were predictive factors of approval for occupational lung cancer. Further studies for work-relatedness of occupational disease are needed.
Elliptic Fourier analysis of crown shapes in Quercus petraea trees
Ovidiu Hâruţa
2011-01-01
Shape is a fundamental morphological descriptor, significant in taxonomic research as well as in ecomorphology, one method of estimation being from digitally processed images. In the present study, were analysed shapes of Q. petraea crowns, pertaining to five different stem diameter classes, from three similar stands. Based on measurements on terrestrial digital vertical photos, crown size analysis was performed and correlations between crown and stem variables were tested. Linear regression ...
Linear regression analysis: part 14 of a series on evaluation of scientific publications.
Schneider, Astrid; Hommel, Gerhard; Blettner, Maria
2010-11-01
Regression analysis is an important statistical method for the analysis of medical data. It enables the identification and characterization of relationships among multiple factors. It also enables the identification of prognostically relevant risk factors and the calculation of risk scores for individual prognostication. This article is based on selected textbooks of statistics, a selective review of the literature, and our own experience. After a brief introduction of the uni- and multivariable regression models, illustrative examples are given to explain what the important considerations are before a regression analysis is performed, and how the results should be interpreted. The reader should then be able to judge whether the method has been used correctly and interpret the results appropriately. The performance and interpretation of linear regression analysis are subject to a variety of pitfalls, which are discussed here in detail. The reader is made aware of common errors of interpretation through practical examples. Both the opportunities for applying linear regression analysis and its limitations are presented.
Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality and Incidence in Panama, Using Joinpoint Regression Analysis.
Politis, Michael; Higuera, Gladys; Chang, Lissette Raquel; Gomez, Beatriz; Bares, Juan; Motta, Jorge
2015-06-01
Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and its incidence is expected to increase in the future. In Panama, cancer is also one of the leading causes of death. In 1964, a nationwide cancer registry was started and it was restructured and improved in 2012. The aim of this study is to utilize Joinpoint regression analysis to study the trends of the incidence and mortality of cancer in Panama in the last decade. Cancer mortality was estimated from the Panamanian National Institute of Census and Statistics Registry for the period 2001 to 2011. Cancer incidence was estimated from the Panamanian National Cancer Registry for the period 2000 to 2009. The Joinpoint Regression Analysis program, version 4.0.4, was used to calculate trends by age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for selected cancers. Overall, the trend of age-adjusted cancer mortality in Panama has declined over the last 10 years (-1.12% per year). The cancers for which there was a significant increase in the trend of mortality were female breast cancer and ovarian cancer; while the highest increases in incidence were shown for breast cancer, liver cancer, and prostate cancer. Significant decrease in the trend of mortality was evidenced for the following: prostate cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, and cervical cancer; with respect to incidence, only oral and pharynx cancer in both sexes had a significant decrease. Some cancers showed no significant trends in incidence or mortality. This study reveals contrasting trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Panama in the last decade. Although Panama is considered an upper middle income nation, this study demonstrates that some cancer mortality trends, like the ones seen in cervical and lung cancer, behave similarly to the ones seen in high income countries. In contrast, other types, like breast cancer, follow a pattern seen in countries undergoing a transition to a developed economy with its associated lifestyle, nutrition, and body weight
Regression analysis of growth responses to water depth in three wetland plant species
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sorrell, Brian K; Tanner, Chris C; Brix, Hans
2012-01-01
depths from 0 – 0.5 m. Morphological and growth responses to depth were followed for 54 days before harvest, and then analysed by repeated measures analysis of covariance, and non-linear and quantile regression analysis (QRA), to compare flooding tolerances. Principal results Growth responses to depth...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
César Lavorenti
1990-01-01
Full Text Available O presente trabalho foi realizado com o objetivo de determinar a existência e as magnitudes de correlações e regressões lineares simples em plântulas jovens de seringueira (Hevea spp., para melhor condução de seleção nos futuros trabalhos de melhoramento. Foram utilizadas médias de produção de borracha seca por plântulas por corte, através do teste Hamaker-Morris-Mann (P; circunferência do caule (CC; espessura de casca (EC; número de anéis (NA; diâmetro dos vasos (DV; densidade dos vasos laticíleros (D e distância média entre anéis de vasos consecutivos (DMEAVC em um viveiro de cruzamento com três anos e meio de idade. Os resultados mostraram, entre outros fatores, que as correlações lineares simples de P com CC, EC, NA, D, DV e DMEAVC foram, respectivamente, r =t 0,61, 0,34, 0,28, 0,29, 0,43 e -0,13. As correlações de CC com EC, NA, D, DV e DMEAVC foram: 0,65, 0,22, 0,37, 0,33 e 0,096 respectivamente. Estudos de regressão linear simples de P com CC, EC, NA, DV, D e DMEAVC sugerem que CC foi o caráter independente mais significativo, contribuindo com 36% da variação em P. Em relação ao vigor, a regressão de CC com os respectivos caracteres sugere que EC foi o único caráter que contribuiu significativamente para a variação de CC com 42%. As altas correlações observadas da produção com circunferência do caule e com espessura de casca evidenciam a possibilidade de obter genótipos jovens de boa capacidade produtiva e grande vigor, através de seleção precoce dessas variáveis.This study was undertaken aiming to determine the existence of linear correlations, based on simple regression studies for a better improvement of young rubber tree (Hevea spp. breeding and selection. The characters studied were: yield of dry rubber per tapping by Hamaker-Morris-Mann test tapping (P, mean gurth (CC, bark thickness (EC, number of latex vessel rings (NA, diameter of latex vesseis (DV, density of latex vesseis per 5mm
Multiple regression analysis of Jominy hardenability data for boron treated steels
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Komenda, J.; Sandstroem, R.; Tukiainen, M.
1997-01-01
The relations between chemical composition and their hardenability of boron treated steels have been investigated using a multiple regression analysis method. A linear model of regression was chosen. The free boron content that is effective for the hardenability was calculated using a model proposed by Jansson. The regression analysis for 1261 steel heats provided equations that were statistically significant at the 95% level. All heats met the specification according to the nordic countries producers classification. The variation in chemical composition explained typically 80 to 90% of the variation in the hardenability. In the regression analysis elements which did not significantly contribute to the calculated hardness according to the F test were eliminated. Carbon, silicon, manganese, phosphorus and chromium were of importance at all Jominy distances, nickel, vanadium, boron and nitrogen at distances above 6 mm. After the regression analysis it was demonstrated that very few outliers were present in the data set, i.e. data points outside four times the standard deviation. The model has successfully been used in industrial practice replacing some of the necessary Jominy tests. (orig.)
Plotting and analysis of fault trees in safety evaluation of nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wild, A.
1979-12-01
Fault tree analysis is a useful tool in determining the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants. The main strength of the fault tree method, its ability to detect cross-links between systems, can be used only if fault trees are constructed for complete nuclear generating stations. Such trees are large and have to be handled by computers. A system is described for handling fault trees using small computers such as the HP-1000 with disc drive, graphics terminal and x-y plotter
Treating experimental data of inverse kinetic method by unitary linear regression analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhao Yusen; Chen Xiaoliang
2009-01-01
The theory of treating experimental data of inverse kinetic method by unitary linear regression analysis was described. Not only the reactivity, but also the effective neutron source intensity could be calculated by this method. Computer code was compiled base on the inverse kinetic method and unitary linear regression analysis. The data of zero power facility BFS-1 in Russia were processed and the results were compared. The results show that the reactivity and the effective neutron source intensity can be obtained correctly by treating experimental data of inverse kinetic method using unitary linear regression analysis and the precision of reactivity measurement is improved. The central element efficiency can be calculated by using the reactivity. The result also shows that the effect to reactivity measurement caused by external neutron source should be considered when the reactor power is low and the intensity of external neutron source is strong. (authors)
Regression analysis of informative current status data with the additive hazards model.
Zhao, Shishun; Hu, Tao; Ma, Ling; Wang, Peijie; Sun, Jianguo
2015-04-01
This paper discusses regression analysis of current status failure time data arising from the additive hazards model in the presence of informative censoring. Many methods have been developed for regression analysis of current status data under various regression models if the censoring is noninformative, and also there exists a large literature on parametric analysis of informative current status data in the context of tumorgenicity experiments. In this paper, a semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation procedure is presented and in the method, the copula model is employed to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring time. Furthermore, I-splines are used to approximate the nonparametric functions involved and the asymptotic consistency and normality of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study is conducted and indicates that the proposed approach works well for practical situations. An illustrative example is also provided.
Suzuki, Hideaki; Tabata, Takahisa; Koizumi, Hiroki; Hohchi, Nobusuke; Takeuchi, Shoko; Kitamura, Takuro; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Ohbuchi, Toyoaki
2014-12-01
This study aimed to create a multiple regression model for predicting hearing outcomes of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSNHL). The participants were 205 consecutive patients (205 ears) with ISSNHL (hearing level ≥ 40 dB, interval between onset and treatment ≤ 30 days). They received systemic steroid administration combined with intratympanic steroid injection. Data were examined by simple and multiple regression analyses. Three hearing indices (percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and posttreatment hearing level [HLpost]) and 7 prognostic factors (age, days from onset to treatment, initial hearing level, initial hearing level at low frequencies, initial hearing level at high frequencies, presence of vertigo, and contralateral hearing level) were included in the multiple regression analysis as dependent and explanatory variables, respectively. In the simple regression analysis, the percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and HLpost showed significant correlation with 2, 5, and 6 of the 7 prognostic factors, respectively. The multiple correlation coefficients were 0.396, 0.503, and 0.714 for the percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and HLpost, respectively. Predicted values of HLpost calculated by the multiple regression equation were reliable with 70% probability with a 40-dB-width prediction interval. Prediction of HLpost by the multiple regression model may be useful to estimate the hearing prognosis of ISSNHL. © The Author(s) 2014.
Anderson, Carl A; McRae, Allan F; Visscher, Peter M
2006-07-01
Standard quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping techniques commonly assume that the trait is both fully observed and normally distributed. When considering survival or age-at-onset traits these assumptions are often incorrect. Methods have been developed to map QTL for survival traits; however, they are both computationally intensive and not available in standard genome analysis software packages. We propose a grouped linear regression method for the analysis of continuous survival data. Using simulation we compare this method to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models and a standard linear regression method that ignores censoring. The grouped linear regression method is of equivalent power to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards methods and is significantly better than the standard linear regression method when censored observations are present. The method is also robust to the proportion of censored individuals and the underlying distribution of the trait. On the basis of linear regression methodology, the grouped linear regression model is computationally simple and fast and can be implemented readily in freely available statistical software.
Application of fault tree analysis to fuel cell diagnosis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yousfi Steiner, N.; Mocoteguy, P. [European Institute for Energy Research (EIFER), Karlsruhe (Germany); Hissel, D. [FEMTO-ST/ENISYS/FC LAB, UMR CNRS 6174, University of Franche-Comte, Belfort (France); Candusso, D. [IFSTTAR/FC LAB, Institute of Science and Technology for Transport, Development and Networks, Belfort (France); Marra, D.; Pianese, C.; Sorrentino, M. [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Salerno, Fisciano (Italy)
2012-04-15
Reliability and lifetime are common issues for the development and commercialization of fuel cells technologies'. As a consequence, their improvement is a major challenge and the last decade has experienced a growing interest in activities that aims at understanding the degradation mechanisms and at developing fuel cell systems diagnosis tools. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is one of the deductive tools that allow ''linking'' an undesired state to a combination of lower-level events via a ''top-down'' approach which is mainly used in safety and reliability engineering. The objective of this paper is to give an overview of the use and the contribution of FTA to both SOFC and PEFC diagnosis. (Copyright copyright 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)
Genome-wide comparative analysis of phylogenetic trees: the prokaryotic forest of life.
Puigbò, Pere; Wolf, Yuri I; Koonin, Eugene V
2012-01-01
Genome-wide comparison of phylogenetic trees is becoming an increasingly common approach in evolutionary genomics, and a variety of approaches for such comparison have been developed. In this article, we present several methods for comparative analysis of large numbers of phylogenetic trees. To compare phylogenetic trees taking into account the bootstrap support for each internal branch, the Boot-Split Distance (BSD) method is introduced as an extension of the previously developed Split Distance method for tree comparison. The BSD method implements the straightforward idea that comparison of phylogenetic trees can be made more robust by treating tree splits differentially depending on the bootstrap support. Approaches are also introduced for detecting tree-like and net-like evolutionary trends in the phylogenetic Forest of Life (FOL), i.e., the entirety of the phylogenetic trees for conserved genes of prokaryotes. The principal method employed for this purpose includes mapping quartets of species onto trees to calculate the support of each quartet topology and so to quantify the tree and net contributions to the distances between species. We describe the application of these methods to analyze the FOL and the results obtained with these methods. These results support the concept of the Tree of Life (TOL) as a central evolutionary trend in the FOL as opposed to the traditional view of the TOL as a "species tree."
Analysis of Functional Data with Focus on Multinomial Regression and Multilevel Data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mousavi, Seyed Nourollah
Functional data analysis (FDA) is a fast growing area in statistical research with increasingly diverse range of application from economics, medicine, agriculture, chemometrics, etc. Functional regression is an area of FDA which has received the most attention both in aspects of application...... and methodological development. Our main Functional data analysis (FDA) is a fast growing area in statistical research with increasingly diverse range of application from economics, medicine, agriculture, chemometrics, etc. Functional regression is an area of FDA which has received the most attention both in aspects...
The use of cognitive ability measures as explanatory variables in regression analysis.
Junker, Brian; Schofield, Lynne Steuerle; Taylor, Lowell J
2012-12-01
Cognitive ability measures are often taken as explanatory variables in regression analysis, e.g., as a factor affecting a market outcome such as an individual's wage, or a decision such as an individual's education acquisition. Cognitive ability is a latent construct; its true value is unobserved. Nonetheless, researchers often assume that a test score , constructed via standard psychometric practice from individuals' responses to test items, can be safely used in regression analysis. We examine problems that can arise, and suggest that an alternative approach, a "mixed effects structural equations" (MESE) model, may be more appropriate in many circumstances.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Shephard, N.
2004-01-01
This paper analyses multivariate high frequency financial data using realized covariation. We provide a new asymptotic distribution theory for standard methods such as regression, correlation analysis, and covariance. It will be based on a fixed interval of time (e.g., a day or week), allowing...... the number of high frequency returns during this period to go to infinity. Our analysis allows us to study how high frequency correlations, regressions, and covariances change through time. In particular we provide confidence intervals for each of these quantities....
Bayesian nonparametric meta-analysis using Polya tree mixture models.
Branscum, Adam J; Hanson, Timothy E
2008-09-01
Summary. A common goal in meta-analysis is estimation of a single effect measure using data from several studies that are each designed to address the same scientific inquiry. Because studies are typically conducted in geographically disperse locations, recent developments in the statistical analysis of meta-analytic data involve the use of random effects models that account for study-to-study variability attributable to differences in environments, demographics, genetics, and other sources that lead to heterogeneity in populations. Stemming from asymptotic theory, study-specific summary statistics are modeled according to normal distributions with means representing latent true effect measures. A parametric approach subsequently models these latent measures using a normal distribution, which is strictly a convenient modeling assumption absent of theoretical justification. To eliminate the influence of overly restrictive parametric models on inferences, we consider a broader class of random effects distributions. We develop a novel hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric Polya tree mixture (PTM) model. We present methodology for testing the PTM versus a normal random effects model. These methods provide researchers a straightforward approach for conducting a sensitivity analysis of the normality assumption for random effects. An application involving meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies designed to characterize the association between alcohol consumption and breast cancer is presented, which together with results from simulated data highlight the performance of PTMs in the presence of nonnormality of effect measures in the source population.
BACFIRE, Minimal Cut Sets Common Cause Failure Fault Tree Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fussell, J.B.
1983-01-01
1 - Description of problem or function: BACFIRE, designed to aid in common cause failure analysis, searches among the basic events of a minimal cut set of the system logic model for common potential causes of failure. The potential cause of failure is called a qualitative failure characteristics. The algorithm searches qualitative failure characteristics (that are part of the program input) of the basic events contained in a set to find those characteristics common to all basic events. This search is repeated for all cut sets input to the program. Common cause failure analysis is thereby performed without inclusion of secondary failure in the system logic model. By using BACFIRE, a common cause failure analysis can be added to an existing system safety and reliability analysis. 2 - Method of solution: BACFIRE searches the qualitative failure characteristics of the basic events contained in the fault tree minimal cut set to find those characteristics common to all basic events by either of two criteria. The first criterion can be met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are associated by a condition which alone may increase the probability of multiple component malfunction. The second criterion is met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are susceptible to the same secondary failure cause and are located in the same domain for that cause of secondary failure. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 1001 secondary failure maps, 101 basic events, 10 cut sets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fang, Xiande; Xu, Yu
2011-01-01
The empirical model of turbine efficiency is necessary for the control- and/or diagnosis-oriented simulation and useful for the simulation and analysis of dynamic performances of the turbine equipment and systems, such as air cycle refrigeration systems, power plants, turbine engines, and turbochargers. Existing empirical models of turbine efficiency are insufficient because there is no suitable form available for air cycle refrigeration turbines. This work performs a critical review of empirical models (called mean value models in some literature) of turbine efficiency and develops an empirical model in the desired form for air cycle refrigeration, the dominant cooling approach in aircraft environmental control systems. The Taylor series and regression analysis are used to build the model, with the Taylor series being used to expand functions with the polytropic exponent and the regression analysis to finalize the model. The measured data of a turbocharger turbine and two air cycle refrigeration turbines are used for the regression analysis. The proposed model is compact and able to present the turbine efficiency map. Its predictions agree with the measured data very well, with the corrected coefficient of determination R c 2 ≥ 0.96 and the mean absolute percentage deviation = 1.19% for the three turbines. -- Highlights: → Performed a critical review of empirical models of turbine efficiency. → Developed an empirical model in the desired form for air cycle refrigeration, using the Taylor expansion and regression analysis. → Verified the method for developing the empirical model. → Verified the model.
Khalil, Mohamed H; Shebl, Mostafa K; Kosba, Mohamed A; El-Sabrout, Karim; Zaki, Nesma
2016-08-01
This research was conducted to determine the most affecting parameters on hatchability of indigenous and improved local chickens' eggs. Five parameters were studied (fertility, early and late embryonic mortalities, shape index, egg weight, and egg weight loss) on four strains, namely Fayoumi, Alexandria, Matrouh, and Montazah. Multiple linear regression was performed on the studied parameters to determine the most influencing one on hatchability. The results showed significant differences in commercial and scientific hatchability among strains. Alexandria strain has the highest significant commercial hatchability (80.70%). Regarding the studied strains, highly significant differences in hatching chick weight among strains were observed. Using multiple linear regression analysis, fertility made the greatest percent contribution (71.31%) to hatchability, and the lowest percent contributions were made by shape index and egg weight loss. A prediction of hatchability using multiple regression analysis could be a good tool to improve hatchability percentage in chickens.
Learning from examples - Generation and evaluation of decision trees for software resource analysis
Selby, Richard W.; Porter, Adam A.
1988-01-01
A general solution method for the automatic generation of decision (or classification) trees is investigated. The approach is to provide insights through in-depth empirical characterization and evaluation of decision trees for software resource data analysis. The trees identify classes of objects (software modules) that had high development effort. Sixteen software systems ranging from 3,000 to 112,000 source lines were selected for analysis from a NASA production environment. The collection and analysis of 74 attributes (or metrics), for over 4,700 objects, captured information about the development effort, faults, changes, design style, and implementation style. A total of 9,600 decision trees were automatically generated and evaluated. The trees correctly identified 79.3 percent of the software modules that had high development effort or faults, and the trees generated from the best parameter combinations correctly identified 88.4 percent of the modules on the average.
Brims, Fraser J H; Meniawy, Tarek M; Duffus, Ian; de Fonseka, Duneesha; Segal, Amanda; Creaney, Jenette; Maskell, Nicholas; Lake, Richard A; de Klerk, Nick; Nowak, Anna K
2016-04-01
Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare cancer with a heterogeneous prognosis. Prognostic models are not widely utilized clinically. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis examines the interaction of multiple variables with a given outcome. Between 2005 and 2014, all cases with pathologically confirmed MPM had routinely available histological, clinical, and laboratory characteristics recorded. Classification and regression tree analysis was performed using 29 variables with 18-month survival as the dependent variable. Risk groups were refined according to survival and clinical characteristics. The model was then tested on an external international cohort. A total of 482 cases were included in the derivation cohort; the median survival was 12.6 months, and the median age was 69 years. The model defined four risk groups with clear survival differences (p loss. The group with the best survival at 18 months (86.7% alive, median survival 34.0 months, termed risk group 1) had no weight loss, a hemoglobin level greater than 153 g/L, and a serum albumin level greater than 43 g/L. The group with the worst survival (0% alive, median survival 7.5 months, termed risk group 4d) had weight loss, a performance score of 0 or 1, and sarcomatoid histological characteristics. The C-statistic for the model was 0.761, and the sensitivity was 94.5%. Validation on 174 external cases confirmed the model's ability to discriminate between risk groups in an alternative data set with fair performance (C-statistic 0.68). We have developed and validated a simple, clinically relevant model to reliably discriminate patients at high and lower risk of death using routinely available variables from the time of diagnosis in unselected populations of patients with MPM. Copyright © 2016 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Feldens, Carlos Alberto; Kramer, Paulo Floriani; Ferreira, Simone Helena; Spiguel, Mônica Hermann; Marquezan, Marcela
2010-04-01
This cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the factors associated with dental trauma in preschool children using Poisson regression analysis with robust variance. The study population comprised 888 children aged 3- to 5-year-old attending public nurseries in Canoas, southern Brazil. Questionnaires assessing information related to the independent variables (age, gender, race, mother's educational level and family income) were completed by the parents. Clinical examinations were carried out by five trained examiners in order to assess traumatic dental injuries (TDI) according to Andreasen's classification. One of the five examiners was calibrated to assess orthodontic characteristics (open bite and overjet). Multivariable Poisson regression analysis with robust variance was used to determine the factors associated with dental trauma as well as the strengths of association. Traditional logistic regression was also performed in order to compare the estimates obtained by both methods of statistical analysis. 36.4% (323/888) of the children suffered dental trauma and there was no difference in prevalence rates from 3 to 5 years of age. Poisson regression analysis showed that the probability of the outcome was almost 30% higher for children whose mothers had more than 8 years of education (Prevalence Ratio = 1.28; 95% CI = 1.03-1.60) and 63% higher for children with an overjet greater than 2 mm (Prevalence Ratio = 1.63; 95% CI = 1.31-2.03). Odds ratios clearly overestimated the size of the effect when compared with prevalence ratios. These findings indicate the need for preventive orientation regarding TDI, in order to educate parents and caregivers about supervising infants, particularly those with increased overjet and whose mothers have a higher level of education. Poisson regression with robust variance represents a better alternative than logistic regression to estimate the risk of dental trauma in preschool children.
Analysis of powered two-wheeler crashes in Italy by classification trees and rules discovery.
Montella, Alfonso; Aria, Massimo; D'Ambrosio, Antonio; Mauriello, Filomena
2012-11-01
Aim of the study was the analysis of powered two-wheeler (PTW) crashes in Italy in order to detect interdependence as well as dissimilarities among crash characteristics and provide insights for the development of safety improvement strategies focused on PTWs. At this aim, data mining techniques were used to analyze the data relative to the 254,575 crashes involving PTWs occurred in Italy in the period 2006-2008. Classification trees analysis and rules discovery were performed. Tree-based methods are non-linear and non-parametric data mining tools for supervised classification and regression problems. They do not require a priori probabilistic knowledge about the phenomena under studying and consider conditional interactions among input data. Rules discovery is the identification of sets of items (i.e., crash patterns) that occur together in a given event (i.e., a crash in our study) more often than they would if they were independent of each other. Thus, the method can detect interdependence among crash characteristics. Due to the large number of patterns considered, both methods suffer from an extreme risk of finding patterns that appear due to chance alone. To overcome this problem, in our study we randomly split the sample data in two data sets and used well-established statistical practices to evaluate the statistical significance of the results. Both the classification trees and the rules discovery were effective in providing meaningful insights about PTW crash characteristics and their interdependencies. Even though in several cases different crash characteristics were highlighted, the results of the two the analysis methods were never contradictory. Furthermore, most of the findings of this study were consistent with the results of previous studies which used different analytical techniques, such as probabilistic models of crash injury severity. Basing on the analysis results, engineering countermeasures and policy initiatives to reduce PTW injuries and
Ye, Fang; Chen, Zhi-Hua; Chen, Jie; Liu, Fang; Zhang, Yong; Fan, Qin-Ying; Wang, Lin
2016-05-20
In the past decades, studies on infant anemia have mainly focused on rural areas of China. With the increasing heterogeneity of population in recent years, available information on infant anemia is inconclusive in large cities of China, especially with comparison between native residents and floating population. This population-based cross-sectional study was implemented to determine the anemic status of infants as well as the risk factors in a representative downtown area of Beijing. As useful methods to build a predictive model, Chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree analysis and logistic regression analysis were introduced to explore risk factors of infant anemia. A total of 1091 infants aged 6-12 months together with their parents/caregivers living at Heping Avenue Subdistrict of Beijing were surveyed from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014. The prevalence of anemia was 12.60% with a range of 3.47%-40.00% in different subgroup characteristics. The CHAID decision tree model has demonstrated multilevel interaction among risk factors through stepwise pathways to detect anemia. Besides the three predictors identified by logistic regression model including maternal anemia during pregnancy, exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months, and floating population, CHAID decision tree analysis also identified the fourth risk factor, the maternal educational level, with higher overall classification accuracy and larger area below the receiver operating characteristic curve. The infant anemic status in metropolis is complex and should be carefully considered by the basic health care practitioners. CHAID decision tree analysis has demonstrated a better performance in hierarchical analysis of population with great heterogeneity. Risk factors identified by this study might be meaningful in the early detection and prompt treatment of infant anemia in large cities.
Fault tree synthesis for software design analysis of PLC based safety-critical systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koo, S. R.; Cho, C. H.; Seong, P. H.
2006-01-01
As a software verification and validation should be performed for the development of PLC based safety-critical systems, a software safety analysis is also considered in line with entire software life cycle. In this paper, we propose a technique of software safety analysis in the design phase. Among various software hazard analysis techniques, fault tree analysis is most widely used for the safety analysis of nuclear power plant systems. Fault tree analysis also has the most intuitive notation and makes both qualitative and quantitative analyses possible. To analyze the design phase more effectively, we propose a technique of fault tree synthesis, along with a universal fault tree template for the architecture modules of nuclear software. Consequently, we can analyze the safety of software on the basis of fault tree synthesis. (authors)
No rationale for 1 variable per 10 events criterion for binary logistic regression analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maarten van Smeden
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Ten events per variable (EPV is a widely advocated minimal criterion for sample size considerations in logistic regression analysis. Of three previous simulation studies that examined this minimal EPV criterion only one supports the use of a minimum of 10 EPV. In this paper, we examine the reasons for substantial differences between these extensive simulation studies. Methods The current study uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate small sample bias, coverage of confidence intervals and mean square error of logit coefficients. Logistic regression models fitted by maximum likelihood and a modified estimation procedure, known as Firth’s correction, are compared. Results The results show that besides EPV, the problems associated with low EPV depend on other factors such as the total sample size. It is also demonstrated that simulation results can be dominated by even a few simulated data sets for which the prediction of the outcome by the covariates is perfect (‘separation’. We reveal that different approaches for identifying and handling separation leads to substantially different simulation results. We further show that Firth’s correction can be used to improve the accuracy of regression coefficients and alleviate the problems associated with separation. Conclusions The current evidence supporting EPV rules for binary logistic regression is weak. Given our findings, there is an urgent need for new research to provide guidance for supporting sample size considerations for binary logistic regression analysis.
Quantile regression for the statistical analysis of immunological data with many non-detects.
Eilers, Paul H C; Röder, Esther; Savelkoul, Huub F J; van Wijk, Roy Gerth
2012-07-07
Immunological parameters are hard to measure. A well-known problem is the occurrence of values below the detection limit, the non-detects. Non-detects are a nuisance, because classical statistical analyses, like ANOVA and regression, cannot be applied. The more advanced statistical techniques currently available for the analysis of datasets with non-detects can only be used if a small percentage of the data are non-detects. Quantile regression, a generalization of percentiles to regression models, models the median or higher percentiles and tolerates very high numbers of non-detects. We present a non-technical introduction and illustrate it with an implementation to real data from a clinical trial. We show that by using quantile regression, groups can be compared and that meaningful linear trends can be computed, even if more than half of the data consists of non-detects. Quantile regression is a valuable addition to the statistical methods that can be used for the analysis of immunological datasets with non-detects.
Determining Balıkesir’s Energy Potential Using a Regression Analysis Computer Program
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bedri Yüksel
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Solar power and wind energy are used concurrently during specific periods, while at other times only the more efficient is used, and hybrid systems make this possible. When establishing a hybrid system, the extent to which these two energy sources support each other needs to be taken into account. This paper is a study of the effects of wind speed, insolation levels, and the meteorological parameters of temperature and humidity on the energy potential in Balıkesir, in the Marmara region of Turkey. The relationship between the parameters was studied using a multiple linear regression method. Using a designed-for-purpose computer program, two different regression equations were derived, with wind speed being the dependent variable in the first and insolation levels in the second. The regression equations yielded accurate results. The computer program allowed for the rapid calculation of different acceptance rates. The results of the statistical analysis proved the reliability of the equations. An estimate of identified meteorological parameters and unknown parameters could be produced with a specified precision by using the regression analysis method. The regression equations also worked for the evaluation of energy potential.
No rationale for 1 variable per 10 events criterion for binary logistic regression analysis.
van Smeden, Maarten; de Groot, Joris A H; Moons, Karel G M; Collins, Gary S; Altman, Douglas G; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Reitsma, Johannes B
2016-11-24
Ten events per variable (EPV) is a widely advocated minimal criterion for sample size considerations in logistic regression analysis. Of three previous simulation studies that examined this minimal EPV criterion only one supports the use of a minimum of 10 EPV. In this paper, we examine the reasons for substantial differences between these extensive simulation studies. The current study uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate small sample bias, coverage of confidence intervals and mean square error of logit coefficients. Logistic regression models fitted by maximum likelihood and a modified estimation procedure, known as Firth's correction, are compared. The results show that besides EPV, the problems associated with low EPV depend on other factors such as the total sample size. It is also demonstrated that simulation results can be dominated by even a few simulated data sets for which the prediction of the outcome by the covariates is perfect ('separation'). We reveal that different approaches for identifying and handling separation leads to substantially different simulation results. We further show that Firth's correction can be used to improve the accuracy of regression coefficients and alleviate the problems associated with separation. The current evidence supporting EPV rules for binary logistic regression is weak. Given our findings, there is an urgent need for new research to provide guidance for supporting sample size considerations for binary logistic regression analysis.
Sampson, Maureen L; Gounden, Verena; van Deventer, Hendrik E; Remaley, Alan T
2016-02-01
The main drawback of the periodic analysis of quality control (QC) material is that test performance is not monitored in time periods between QC analyses, potentially leading to the reporting of faulty test results. The objective of this study was to develop a patient based QC procedure for the more timely detection of test errors. Results from a Chem-14 panel measured on the Beckman LX20 analyzer were used to develop the model. Each test result was predicted from the other 13 members of the panel by multiple regression, which resulted in correlation coefficients between the predicted and measured result of >0.7 for 8 of the 14 tests. A logistic regression model, which utilized the measured test result, the predicted test result, the day of the week and time of day, was then developed for predicting test errors. The output of the logistic regression was tallied by a daily CUSUM approach and used to predict test errors, with a fixed specificity of 90%. The mean average run length (ARL) before error detection by CUSUM-Logistic Regression (CSLR) was 20 with a mean sensitivity of 97%, which was considerably shorter than the mean ARL of 53 (sensitivity 87.5%) for a simple prediction model that only used the measured result for error detection. A CUSUM-Logistic Regression analysis of patient laboratory data can be an effective approach for the rapid and sensitive detection of clinical laboratory errors. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Suzuki, Taku; Iwamoto, Takuji; Shizu, Kanae; Suzuki, Katsuji; Yamada, Harumoto; Sato, Kazuki
2017-05-01
This retrospective study was designed to investigate prognostic factors for postoperative outcomes for cubital tunnel syndrome (CubTS) using multiple logistic regression analysis with a large number of patients. Eighty-three patients with CubTS who underwent surgeries were enrolled. The following potential prognostic factors for disease severity were selected according to previous reports: sex, age, type of surgery, disease duration, body mass index, cervical lesion, presence of diabetes mellitus, Workers' Compensation status, preoperative severity, and preoperative electrodiagnostic testing. Postoperative severity of disease was assessed 2 years after surgery by Messina's criteria which is an outcome measure specifically for CubTS. Bivariate analysis was performed to select candidate prognostic factors for multiple linear regression analyses. Multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the association between postoperative severity and selected prognostic factors. Both bivariate and multiple linear regression analysis revealed only preoperative severity as an independent risk factor for poor prognosis, while other factors did not show any significant association. Although conflicting results exist regarding prognosis of CubTS, this study supports evidence from previous studies and concludes early surgical intervention portends the most favorable prognosis. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese Orthopaedic Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Meta-regression analysis of commensal and pathogenic Escherichia coli survival in soil and water.
Franz, Eelco; Schijven, Jack; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Blaak, Hetty
2014-06-17
The extent to which pathogenic and commensal E. coli (respectively PEC and CEC) can survive, and which factors predominantly determine the rate of decline, are crucial issues from a public health point of view. The goal of this study was to provide a quantitative summary of the variability in E. coli survival in soil and water over a broad range of individual studies and to identify the most important sources of variability. To that end, a meta-regression analysis on available literature data was conducted. The considerable variation in reported decline rates indicated that the persistence of E. coli is not easily predictable. The meta-analysis demonstrated that for soil and water, the type of experiment (laboratory or field), the matrix subtype (type of water and soil), and temperature were the main factors included in the regression analysis. A higher average decline rate in soil of PEC compared with CEC was observed. The regression models explained at best 57% of the variation in decline rate in soil and 41% of the variation in decline rate in water. This indicates that additional factors, not included in the current meta-regression analysis, are of importance but rarely reported. More complete reporting of experimental conditions may allow future inference on the global effects of these variables on the decline rate of E. coli.
Preacher, Kristopher J.; Curran, Patrick J.; Bauer, Daniel J.
2006-01-01
Simple slopes, regions of significance, and confidence bands are commonly used to evaluate interactions in multiple linear regression (MLR) models, and the use of these techniques has recently been extended to multilevel or hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) and latent curve analysis (LCA). However, conducting these tests and plotting the…
Application of range-test in multiple linear regression analysis in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Application of range-test in multiple linear regression analysis in the presence of outliers is studied in this paper. First, the plot of the explanatory variables (i.e. Administration, Social/Commercial, Economic services and Transfer) on the dependent variable (i.e. GDP) was done to identify the statistical trend over the years.
Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis of Cigarette Use among High School Students
Adwere-Boamah, Joseph
2011-01-01
A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to predict high school students' cigarette smoking behavior from selected predictors from 2009 CDC Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey. The specific target student behavior of interest was frequent cigarette use. Five predictor variables included in the model were: a) race, b) frequency of…
A systematic review and meta-regression analysis of mivacurium for tracheal intubation
Vanlinthout, L.E.H.; Mesfin, S.H.; Hens, N.; Vanacker, B.F.; Robertson, E.N.; Booij, L.H.D.J.
2014-01-01
We systematically reviewed factors associated with intubation conditions in randomised controlled trials of mivacurium, using random-effects meta-regression analysis. We included 29 studies of 1050 healthy participants. Four factors explained 72.9% of the variation in the probability of excellent
Declining Bias and Gender Wage Discrimination? A Meta-Regression Analysis
Jarrell, Stephen B.; Stanley, T. D.
2004-01-01
The meta-regression analysis reveals that there is a strong tendency for discrimination estimates to fall and wage discrimination exist against the woman. The biasing effect of researchers' gender of not correcting for selection bias has weakened and changes in labor market have made it less important.
Groenendijk, Peter; van der Sleen, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Bongers, Frans; Zuidema, Pieter A
2015-10-01
The important role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle makes it imperative to assess changes in their carbon dynamics for accurate projections of future climate-vegetation feedbacks. Forest monitoring studies conducted over the past decades have found evidence for both increasing and decreasing growth rates of tropical forest trees. The limited duration of these studies restrained analyses to decadal scales, and it is still unclear whether growth changes occurred over longer time scales, as would be expected if CO2 -fertilization stimulated tree growth. Furthermore, studies have so far dealt with changes in biomass gain at forest-stand level, but insights into species-specific growth changes - that ultimately determine community-level responses - are lacking. Here, we analyse species-specific growth changes on a centennial scale, using growth data from tree-ring analysis for 13 tree species (~1300 trees), from three sites distributed across the tropics. We used an established (regional curve standardization) and a new (size-class isolation) growth-trend detection method and explicitly assessed the influence of biases on the trend detection. In addition, we assessed whether aggregated trends were present within and across study sites. We found evidence for decreasing growth rates over time for 8-10 species, whereas increases were noted for two species and one showed no trend. Additionally, we found evidence for weak aggregated growth decreases at the site in Thailand and when analysing all sites simultaneously. The observed growth reductions suggest deteriorating growth conditions, perhaps due to warming. However, other causes cannot be excluded, such as recovery from large-scale disturbances or changing forest dynamics. Our findings contrast growth patterns that would be expected if elevated CO2 would stimulate tree growth. These results suggest that commonly assumed growth increases of tropical forests may not occur, which could lead to erroneous
Kovalska, M P; Bürki, E; Schoetzau, A; Orguel, S F; Orguel, S; Grieshaber, M C
2011-04-01
The distinction of real progression from test variability in visual field (VF) series may be based on clinical judgment, on trend analysis based on follow-up of test parameters over time, or on identification of a significant change related to the mean of baseline exams (event analysis). The aim of this study was to compare a new population-based method (Octopus field analysis, OFA) with classic regression analyses and clinical judgment for detecting glaucomatous VF changes. 240 VF series of 240 patients with at least 9 consecutive examinations available were included into this study. They were independently classified by two experienced investigators. The results of such a classification served as a reference for comparison for the following statistical tests: (a) t-test global, (b) r-test global, (c) regression analysis of 10 VF clusters and (d) point-wise linear regression analysis. 32.5 % of the VF series were classified as progressive by the investigators. The sensitivity and specificity were 89.7 % and 92.0 % for r-test, and 73.1 % and 93.8 % for the t-test, respectively. In the point-wise linear regression analysis, the specificity was comparable (89.5 % versus 92 %), but the sensitivity was clearly lower than in the r-test (22.4 % versus 89.7 %) at a significance level of p = 0.01. A regression analysis for the 10 VF clusters showed a markedly higher sensitivity for the r-test (37.7 %) than the t-test (14.1 %) at a similar specificity (88.3 % versus 93.8 %) for a significant trend (p = 0.005). In regard to the cluster distribution, the paracentral clusters and the superior nasal hemifield progressed most frequently. The population-based regression analysis seems to be superior to the trend analysis in detecting VF progression in glaucoma, and may eliminate the drawbacks of the event analysis. Further, it may assist the clinician in the evaluation of VF series and may allow better visualization of the correlation between function and structure owing to VF
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Saeid Mirzaei
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Introduction: The pistachio (Pistacia vera, a member of the cashew family, is a small tree originating from Central Asia and the Middle East. The tree produces seeds that are widely consumed as food. Pistacia vera often is confused with other species in the genus Pistacia that are also known as pistachio. These other species can be distinguished by their geographic distributions and their seeds which are much smaller and have a soft shell. Continual advances in crop improvement through plant breeding are driven by the available genetic diversity. Therefore, the recognition and measurement of such diversity is crucial to breeding programs. In the past 20 years, the major effort in plant breeding has changed from quantitative to molecular genetics with emphasis on quantitative trait loci (QTL identification and marker assisted selection (MAS. The germplasm-regression-combined association studies not only allow mapping of genes/QTLs with higher level of confidence, but also allow detection of genes/QTLs, which will otherwise escape detection in linkage-based QTL studies based on the planned populations. The development of the marker-based technology offers a fast, reliable, and easy way to perform multiple regression analysis and comprise an alternative approach to breeding in diverse species of plants. The availability of many makers and morphological traits can help to regression analysis between these markers and morphological traits. Materials and Methods: In this study, 20 genotypes of Pistachio were studied and yield related traits were measured. Young well-expanded leaves were collected for DNA extraction and total genomic DNA was extracted. Genotyping was performed using 15 RAPD primers and PCR amplification products were visualized by gel electrophoresis. The reproducible RAPD fragments were scored on the basis of present (1 or absent (0 bands and a binary matrix constructed using each molecular marker. Association analysis between
Ulbrich, N.; Volden, T.
2018-01-01
Analysis and use of temperature-dependent wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data are discussed in the paper. First, three different methods are presented and compared that may be used to process temperature-dependent strain-gage balance data. The first method uses an extended set of independent variables in order to process the data and predict balance loads. The second method applies an extended load iteration equation during the analysis of balance calibration data. The third method uses temperature-dependent sensitivities for the data analysis. Physical interpretations of the most important temperature-dependent regression model terms are provided that relate temperature compensation imperfections and the temperature-dependent nature of the gage factor to sets of regression model terms. Finally, balance calibration recommendations are listed so that temperature-dependent calibration data can be obtained and successfully processed using the reviewed analysis methods.
City of Boulder, Colorado Municipal Tree Resource Analysis
E.G. McPherson; J.R. Simpson; P.J. Peper; S.L. Gardner; K.E. Vargas; Q. Xiao
2005-01-01
Boulder is a vibrant city, renowned for its livability and cultural wealth and well known for its Smart Growth policies that protect and restore environmental quality while enhancing economic opportunity. The city maintains trees as an integral component of the urban infrastructure. Research indicates that healthy trees can mitigate impacts associated with the built...
Anderson, Carl A.; McRae, Allan F.; Visscher, Peter M.
2006-01-01
Standard quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping techniques commonly assume that the trait is both fully observed and normally distributed. When considering survival or age-at-onset traits these assumptions are often incorrect. Methods have been developed to map QTL for survival traits; however, they are both computationally intensive and not available in standard genome analysis software packages. We propose a grouped linear regression method for the analysis of continuous survival data. Using...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mamikonyan, S.V.; Berezkin, V.V.; Lyubimova, S.V.; Svetajlo, Yu.N.; Shchekin, K.I.
1978-01-01
A method to derive multiple regression equations for X-ray radiometric analysis is described. Te method is realized in the form of the REGRA program in an algorithmic language. The subprograms included in the program are describe. In analyzing cement for Mg, Al, Si, Ca and Fe contents as an example, the obtainment of working equations in the course of calculations by the program is shown to simpliy the realization of computing devices in instruments for X-ray radiometric analysis
Forecasting Model for IPTV Service in Korea Using Bootstrap Ridge Regression Analysis
Lee, Byoung Chul; Kee, Seho; Kim, Jae Bum; Kim, Yun Bae
The telecom firms in Korea are taking new step to prepare for the next generation of convergence services, IPTV. In this paper we described our analysis on the effective method for demand forecasting about IPTV broadcasting. We have tried according to 3 types of scenarios based on some aspects of IPTV potential market and made a comparison among the results. The forecasting method used in this paper is the multi generation substitution model with bootstrap ridge regression analysis.
Geroukis, Asterios; Brorson, Erik
2014-01-01
In this study, we compare the two statistical techniques logistic regression and discriminant analysis to see how well they classify companies based on clusters – made from the solvency ratio – using principal components as independent variables. The principal components are made with different financial ratios. We use cluster analysis to find groups with low, medium and high solvency ratio of 1200 different companies found on the NASDAQ stock market and use this as an apriori definition of ...
Analysis of designed experiments by stabilised PLS Regression and jack-knifing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Martens, Harald; Høy, M.; Westad, F.
2001-01-01
Pragmatical, visually oriented methods for assessing and optimising bi-linear regression models are described, and applied to PLS Regression (PLSR) analysis of multi-response data from controlled experiments. The paper outlines some ways to stabilise the PLSR method to extend its range...... the reliability of the linear and bi-linear model parameter estimates. The paper illustrates how the obtained PLSR "significance" probabilities are similar to those from conventional factorial ANOVA, but the PLSR is shown to give important additional overview plots of the main relevant structures in the multi....... An Introduction, Wiley, Chichester, UK, 2001]....
Statistical methods in regression and calibration analysis of chromosome aberration data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Merkle, W.
1983-01-01
The method of iteratively reweighted least squares for the regression analysis of Poisson distributed chromosome aberration data is reviewed in the context of other fit procedures used in the cytogenetic literature. As an application of the resulting regression curves methods for calculating confidence intervals on dose from aberration yield are described and compared, and, for the linear quadratic model a confidence interval is given. Emphasis is placed on the rational interpretation and the limitations of various methods from a statistical point of view. (orig./MG)
Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H
2017-05-10
We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P valuelinear regression P value). The statistical power of CAT test decreased, while the result of linear regression analysis remained the same when population size was reduced by 100 times and AMI incidence rate remained unchanged. The two statistical methods have their advantages and disadvantages. It is necessary to choose statistical method according the fitting degree of data, or comprehensively analyze the results of two methods.
Large-coil-test-facility fault-tree analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1982-01-01
An operating-safety study is being conducted for the Large Coil Test Facility (LCTF). The purpose of this study is to provide the facility operators and users with added insight into potential problem areas that could affect the safety of personnel or the availability of equipment. This is a preliminary report, on Phase I of that study. A central feature of the study is the incorporation of engineering judgements (by LCTF personnel) into an outside, overall view of the facility. The LCTF was analyzed in terms of 32 subsystems, each of which are subject to failure from any of 15 generic failure initiators. The study identified approximately 40 primary areas of concern which were subjected to a computer analysis as an aid in understanding the complex subsystem interactions that can occur within the facility. The study did not analyze in detail the internal structure of the subsystems at the individual component level. A companion study using traditional fault tree techniques did analyze approximately 20% of the LCTF at the component level. A comparison between these two analysis techniques is included in Section 7
Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Z. Yaghoubpour
2016-04-01
Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.
Composite marginal quantile regression analysis for longitudinal adolescent body mass index data.
Yang, Chi-Chuan; Chen, Yi-Hau; Chang, Hsing-Yi
2017-09-20
Childhood and adolescenthood overweight or obesity, which may be quantified through the body mass index (BMI), is strongly associated with adult obesity and other health problems. Motivated by the child and adolescent behaviors in long-term evolution (CABLE) study, we are interested in individual, family, and school factors associated with marginal quantiles of longitudinal adolescent BMI values. We propose a new method for composite marginal quantile regression analysis for longitudinal outcome data, which performs marginal quantile regressions at multiple quantile levels simultaneously. The proposed method extends the quantile regression coefficient modeling method introduced by Frumento and Bottai (Biometrics 2016; 72:74-84) to longitudinal data accounting suitably for the correlation structure in longitudinal observations. A goodness-of-fit test for the proposed modeling is also developed. Simulation results show that the proposed method can be much more efficient than the analysis without taking correlation into account and the analysis performing separate quantile regressions at different quantile levels. The application to the longitudinal adolescent BMI data from the CABLE study demonstrates the practical utility of our proposal. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Wang, Wen-Cheng; Cho, Wen-Chien; Chen, Yin-Jen
2014-01-01
It is estimated that mainland Chinese tourists travelling to Taiwan can bring annual revenues of 400 billion NTD to the Taiwan economy. Thus, how the Taiwanese Government formulates relevant measures to satisfy both sides is the focus of most concern. Taiwan must improve the facilities and service quality of its tourism industry so as to attract more mainland tourists. This paper conducted a questionnaire survey of mainland tourists and used grey relational analysis in grey mathematics to analyze the satisfaction performance of all satisfaction question items. The first eight satisfaction items were used as independent variables, and the overall satisfaction performance was used as a dependent variable for quantile regression model analysis to discuss the relationship between the dependent variable under different quantiles and independent variables. Finally, this study further discussed the predictive accuracy of the least mean regression model and each quantile regression model, as a reference for research personnel. The analysis results showed that other variables could also affect the overall satisfaction performance of mainland tourists, in addition to occupation and age. The overall predictive accuracy of quantile regression model Q0.25 was higher than that of the other three models. PMID:24574916
Wang, Wen-Cheng; Cho, Wen-Chien; Chen, Yin-Jen
2014-01-01
It is estimated that mainland Chinese tourists travelling to Taiwan can bring annual revenues of 400 billion NTD to the Taiwan economy. Thus, how the Taiwanese Government formulates relevant measures to satisfy both sides is the focus of most concern. Taiwan must improve the facilities and service quality of its tourism industry so as to attract more mainland tourists. This paper conducted a questionnaire survey of mainland tourists and used grey relational analysis in grey mathematics to analyze the satisfaction performance of all satisfaction question items. The first eight satisfaction items were used as independent variables, and the overall satisfaction performance was used as a dependent variable for quantile regression model analysis to discuss the relationship between the dependent variable under different quantiles and independent variables. Finally, this study further discussed the predictive accuracy of the least mean regression model and each quantile regression model, as a reference for research personnel. The analysis results showed that other variables could also affect the overall satisfaction performance of mainland tourists, in addition to occupation and age. The overall predictive accuracy of quantile regression model Q0.25 was higher than that of the other three models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wen-Cheng Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available It is estimated that mainland Chinese tourists travelling to Taiwan can bring annual revenues of 400 billion NTD to the Taiwan economy. Thus, how the Taiwanese Government formulates relevant measures to satisfy both sides is the focus of most concern. Taiwan must improve the facilities and service quality of its tourism industry so as to attract more mainland tourists. This paper conducted a questionnaire survey of mainland tourists and used grey relational analysis in grey mathematics to analyze the satisfaction performance of all satisfaction question items. The first eight satisfaction items were used as independent variables, and the overall satisfaction performance was used as a dependent variable for quantile regression model analysis to discuss the relationship between the dependent variable under different quantiles and independent variables. Finally, this study further discussed the predictive accuracy of the least mean regression model and each quantile regression model, as a reference for research personnel. The analysis results showed that other variables could also affect the overall satisfaction performance of mainland tourists, in addition to occupation and age. The overall predictive accuracy of quantile regression model Q0.25 was higher than that of the other three models.
Bias due to two-stage residual-outcome regression analysis in genetic association studies.
Demissie, Serkalem; Cupples, L Adrienne
2011-11-01
Association studies of risk factors and complex diseases require careful assessment of potential confounding factors. Two-stage regression analysis, sometimes referred to as residual- or adjusted-outcome analysis, has been increasingly used in association studies of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and quantitative traits. In this analysis, first, a residual-outcome is calculated from a regression of the outcome variable on covariates and then the relationship between the adjusted-outcome and the SNP is evaluated by a simple linear regression of the adjusted-outcome on the SNP. In this article, we examine the performance of this two-stage analysis as compared with multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. Our findings show that when a SNP and a covariate are correlated, the two-stage approach results in biased genotypic effect and loss of power. Bias is always toward the null and increases with the squared-correlation between the SNP and the covariate (). For example, for , 0.1, and 0.5, two-stage analysis results in, respectively, 0, 10, and 50% attenuation in the SNP effect. As expected, MLR was always unbiased. Since individual SNPs often show little or no correlation with covariates, a two-stage analysis is expected to perform as well as MLR in many genetic studies; however, it produces considerably different results from MLR and may lead to incorrect conclusions when independent variables are highly correlated. While a useful alternative to MLR under , the two -stage approach has serious limitations. Its use as a simple substitute for MLR should be avoided. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koh, Kwang Yong; Seong, Poong Hyun
2010-01-01
Fault tree analysis (FTA) has suffered from several drawbacks such that it uses only static gates and hence can not capture dynamic behaviors of the complex system precisely, and it is in lack of rigorous semantics, and reasoning process which is to check whether basic events really cause top events is done manually and hence very labor-intensive and time-consuming for the complex systems while it has been one of the most widely used safety analysis technique in nuclear industry. Although several attempts have been made to overcome this problem, they can not still do absolute or actual time modeling because they adapt relative time concept and can capture only sequential behaviors of the system. In this work, to resolve the problems, FTA and model checking are integrated to provide formal, automated and qualitative assistance to informal and/or quantitative safety analysis. Our approach proposes to build a formal model of the system together with fault trees. We introduce several temporal gates based on timed computational tree logic (TCTL) to capture absolute time behaviors of the system and to give concrete semantics to fault tree gates to reduce errors during the analysis, and use model checking technique to automate the reasoning process of FTA
Performance Analysis of Embedded Zero Tree and Set Partitioning in Hierarchical Tree
Pardeep Singh; Nivedita; Dinesh Gupta; Sugandha Sharma
2012-01-01
Compressing an image is significantly different than compressing raw binary data. For this different compression algorithm are used to compress images. Discrete wavelet transform has been widely used to compress the image. Wavelet transform are very powerful compared to other transform because its ability to describe any type of signals both in time and frequency domain simultaneously. The proposed schemes investigate the performance evaluation of embedded zero tree and wavelet based compress...
Tree-ring analysis of ancient baldcypress trees and subfossil wood
Stahle, David W.; Burnette, Dorian J.; Villanueva, Jose; Cerano, Julian; Fye, Falko K.; Griffin, R. Daniel; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Stahle, Daniel K.; Edmondson, Jesse R.; Wolff, Kathryn P.
2012-02-01
Ancient baldcypress trees found in wetland and riverine environments have been used to develop a network of exactly dated annual ring-width chronologies extending from the southeastern United States, across Mexico, and into western Guatemala. These chronologies are sensitive to growing season precipitation in spite of frequently flooded site conditions, and have been used to reconstruct moisture levels the southeastern United States and Mexico for over 1000 years. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major influence on the climate reconstructions derived from these baldcypress chronologies, especially in Mexico where some of the most extreme reconstructed droughts occurred during El Nino events. In the Southeast, the ENSO influence on climate and tree growth changes sign from spring to summer, and this change in dynamical forcing is recorded by sub-seasonal chronologies of earlywood and latewood width. Most existing baldcypress chronologies have been extended with tree-ring data from "subfossil" wood recovered from surface and submerged deposits. Well-preserved subfossil logs have also been recovered in quantity from buried deposits of great age, and may permit development of long continuously dated Holocene chronologies and discontinuous "floating" Pleistocene chronologies. The extensive subfossil baldcypress swamp discovered 6 m below the streets of Washington D.C. was overrun by a transgression of the Potomac estuary, possibly during the previous super interglacial (marine OIS 5e), and provides direct evidence for one potential impact of unmitigated anthropogenic warming and sea level rise.
Multilayer perceptron for robust nonlinear interval regression analysis using genetic algorithms.
Hu, Yi-Chung
2014-01-01
On the basis of fuzzy regression, computational models in intelligence such as neural networks have the capability to be applied to nonlinear interval regression analysis for dealing with uncertain and imprecise data. When training data are not contaminated by outliers, computational models perform well by including almost all given training data in the data interval. Nevertheless, since training data are often corrupted by outliers, robust learning algorithms employed to resist outliers for interval regression analysis have been an interesting area of research. Several approaches involving computational intelligence are effective for resisting outliers, but the required parameters for these approaches are related to whether the collected data contain outliers or not. Since it seems difficult to prespecify the degree of contamination beforehand, this paper uses multilayer perceptron to construct the robust nonlinear interval regression model using the genetic algorithm. Outliers beyond or beneath the data interval will impose slight effect on the determination of data interval. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method performs well for contaminated datasets.
[Multiple linear regression analysis of X-ray measurement and WOMAC scores of knee osteoarthritis].
Ma, Yu-Feng; Wang, Qing-Fu; Chen, Zhao-Jun; Du, Chun-Lin; Li, Jun-Hai; Huang, Hu; Shi, Zong-Ting; Yin, Yue-Shan; Zhang, Lei; A-Di, Li-Jiang; Dong, Shi-Yu; Wu, Ji
2012-05-01
To perform Multiple Linear Regression analysis of X-ray measurement and WOMAC scores of knee osteoarthritis, and to analyze their relationship with clinical and biomechanical concepts. From March 2011 to July 2011, 140 patients (250 knees) were reviewed, including 132 knees in the left and 118 knees in the right; ranging in age from 40 to 71 years, with an average of 54.68 years. The MB-RULER measurement software was applied to measure femoral angle, tibial angle, femorotibial angle, joint gap angle from antero-posterir and lateral position of X-rays. The WOMAC scores were also collected. Then multiple regression equations was applied for the linear regression analysis of correlation between the X-ray measurement and WOMAC scores. There was statistical significance in the regression equation of AP X-rays value and WOMAC scores (Pregression equation of lateral X-ray value and WOMAC scores (P>0.05). 1) X-ray measurement of knee joint can reflect the WOMAC scores to a certain extent. 2) It is necessary to measure the X-ray mechanical axis of knee, which is important for diagnosis and treatment of osteoarthritis. 3) The correlation between tibial angle,joint gap angle on antero-posterior X-ray and WOMAC scores is significant, which can be used to assess the functional recovery of patients before and after treatment.
Multiple Imputation of a Randomly Censored Covariate Improves Logistic Regression Analysis.
Atem, Folefac D; Qian, Jing; Maye, Jacqueline E; Johnson, Keith A; Betensky, Rebecca A
2016-01-01
Randomly censored covariates arise frequently in epidemiologic studies. The most commonly used methods, including complete case and single imputation or substitution, suffer from inefficiency and bias. They make strong parametric assumptions or they consider limit of detection censoring only. We employ multiple imputation, in conjunction with semi-parametric modeling of the censored covariate, to overcome these shortcomings and to facilitate robust estimation. We develop a multiple imputation approach for randomly censored covariates within the framework of a logistic regression model. We use the non-parametric estimate of the covariate distribution or the semiparametric Cox model estimate in the presence of additional covariates in the model. We evaluate this procedure in simulations, and compare its operating characteristics to those from the complete case analysis and a survival regression approach. We apply the procedures to an Alzheimer's study of the association between amyloid positivity and maternal age of onset of dementia. Multiple imputation achieves lower standard errors and higher power than the complete case approach under heavy and moderate censoring and is comparable under light censoring. The survival regression approach achieves the highest power among all procedures, but does not produce interpretable estimates of association. Multiple imputation offers a favorable alternative to complete case analysis and ad hoc substitution methods in the presence of randomly censored covariates within the framework of logistic regression.
Replica analysis of overfitting in regression models for time-to-event data
Coolen, A. C. C.; Barrett, J. E.; Paga, P.; Perez-Vicente, C. J.
2017-09-01
Overfitting, which happens when the number of parameters in a model is too large compared to the number of data points available for determining these parameters, is a serious and growing problem in survival analysis. While modern medicine presents us with data of unprecedented dimensionality, these data cannot yet be used effectively for clinical outcome prediction. Standard error measures in maximum likelihood regression, such as p-values and z-scores, are blind to overfitting, and even for Cox’s proportional hazards model (the main tool of medical statisticians), one finds in literature only rules of thumb on the number of samples required to avoid overfitting. In this paper we present a mathematical theory of overfitting in regression models for time-to-event data, which aims to increase our quantitative understanding of the problem and provide practical tools with which to correct regression outcomes for the impact of overfitting. It is based on the replica method, a statistical mechanical technique for the analysis of heterogeneous many-variable systems that has been used successfully for several decades in physics, biology, and computer science, but not yet in medical statistics. We develop the theory initially for arbitrary regression models for time-to-event data, and verify its predictions in detail for the popular Cox model.
Van Belle, Vanya; Pelckmans, Kristiaan; Van Huffel, Sabine; Suykens, Johan A K
2011-10-01
To compare and evaluate ranking, regression and combined machine learning approaches for the analysis of survival data. The literature describes two approaches based on support vector machines to deal with censored observations. In the first approach the key idea is to rephrase the task as a ranking problem via the concordance index, a problem which can be solved efficiently in a context of structural risk minimization and convex optimization techniques. In a second approach, one uses a regression approach, dealing with censoring by means of inequality constraints. The goal of this paper is then twofold: (i) introducing a new model combining the ranking and regression strategy, which retains the link with existing survival models such as the proportional hazards model via transformation models; and (ii) comparison of the three techniques on 6 clinical and 3 high-dimensional datasets and discussing the relevance of these techniques over classical approaches fur survival data. We compare svm-based survival models based on ranking constraints, based on regression constraints and models based on both ranking and regression constraints. The performance of the models is compared by means of three different measures: (i) the concordance index, measuring the model's discriminating ability; (ii) the logrank test statistic, indicating whether patients with a prognostic index lower than the median prognostic index have a significant different survival than patients with a prognostic index higher than the median; and (iii) the hazard ratio after normalization to restrict the prognostic index between 0 and 1. Our results indicate a significantly better performance for models including regression constraints above models only based on ranking constraints. This work gives empirical evidence that svm-based models using regression constraints perform significantly better than svm-based models based on ranking constraints. Our experiments show a comparable performance for methods
MulRF: a software package for phylogenetic analysis using multi-copy gene trees.
Chaudhary, Ruchi; Fernández-Baca, David; Burleigh, John Gordon
2015-02-01
MulRF is a platform-independent software package for phylogenetic analysis using multi-copy gene trees. It seeks the species tree that minimizes the Robinson-Foulds (RF) distance to the input trees using a generalization of the RF distance to multi-labeled trees. The underlying generic tree distance measure and fast running time make MulRF useful for inferring phylogenies from large collections of gene trees, in which multiple evolutionary processes as well as phylogenetic error may contribute to gene tree discord. MulRF implements several features for customizing the species tree search and assessing the results, and it provides a user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI) with tree visualization. The species tree search is implemented in C++ and the GUI in Java Swing. MulRF's executable as well as sample datasets and manual are available at http://genome.cs.iastate.edu/CBL/MulRF/, and the source code is available at https://github.com/ruchiherself/MulRFRepo. ruchic@ufl.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Tutorial on Biostatistics: Linear Regression Analysis of Continuous Correlated Eye Data.
Ying, Gui-Shuang; Maguire, Maureen G; Glynn, Robert; Rosner, Bernard
2017-04-01
To describe and demonstrate appropriate linear regression methods for analyzing correlated continuous eye data. We describe several approaches to regression analysis involving both eyes, including mixed effects and marginal models under various covariance structures to account for inter-eye correlation. We demonstrate, with SAS statistical software, applications in a study comparing baseline refractive error between one eye with choroidal neovascularization (CNV) and the unaffected fellow eye, and in a study determining factors associated with visual field in the elderly. When refractive error from both eyes were analyzed with standard linear regression without accounting for inter-eye correlation (adjusting for demographic and ocular covariates), the difference between eyes with CNV and fellow eyes was 0.15 diopters (D; 95% confidence interval, CI -0.03 to 0.32D, p = 0.10). Using a mixed effects model or a marginal model, the estimated difference was the same but with narrower 95% CI (0.01 to 0.28D, p = 0.03). Standard regression for visual field data from both eyes provided biased estimates of standard error (generally underestimated) and smaller p-values, while analysis of the worse eye provided larger p-values than mixed effects models and marginal models. In research involving both eyes, ignoring inter-eye correlation can lead to invalid inferences. Analysis using only right or left eyes is valid, but decreases power. Worse-eye analysis can provide less power and biased estimates of effect. Mixed effects or marginal models using the eye as the unit of analysis should be used to appropriately account for inter-eye correlation and maximize power and precision.
Non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis using B-spline quantile regression
Nasri, B.; Bouezmarni, T.; St-Hilaire, A.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.
2017-11-01
Hydrologic frequency analysis is commonly used by engineers and hydrologists to provide the basic information on planning, design and management of hydraulic and water resources systems under the assumption of stationarity. However, with increasing evidence of climate change, it is possible that the assumption of stationarity, which is prerequisite for traditional frequency analysis and hence, the results of conventional analysis would become questionable. In this study, we consider a framework for frequency analysis of extremes based on B-Spline quantile regression which allows to model data in the presence of non-stationarity and/or dependence on covariates with linear and non-linear dependence. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm was used to estimate quantiles and their posterior distributions. A coefficient of determination and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for quantile regression are used in order to select the best model, i.e. for each quantile, we choose the degree and number of knots of the adequate B-spline quantile regression model. The method is applied to annual maximum and minimum streamflow records in Ontario, Canada. Climate indices are considered to describe the non-stationarity in the variable of interest and to estimate the quantiles in this case. The results show large differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents for an annual maximum and minimum discharge with high annual non-exceedance probabilities.
Comparison of cranial sex determination by discriminant analysis and logistic regression.
Amores-Ampuero, Anabel; Alemán, Inmaculada
2016-04-05
Various methods have been proposed for estimating dimorphism. The objective of this study was to compare sex determination results from cranial measurements using discriminant analysis or logistic regression. The study sample comprised 130 individuals (70 males) of known sex, age, and cause of death from San José cemetery in Granada (Spain). Measurements of 19 neurocranial dimensions and 11 splanchnocranial dimensions were subjected to discriminant analysis and logistic regression, and the percentages of correct classification were compared between the sex functions obtained with each method. The discriminant capacity of the selected variables was evaluated with a cross-validation procedure. The percentage accuracy with discriminant analysis was 78.2% for the neurocranium (82.4% in females and 74.6% in males) and 73.7% for the splanchnocranium (79.6% in females and 68.8% in males). These percentages were higher with logistic regression analysis: 85.7% for the neurocranium (in both sexes) and 94.1% for the splanchnocranium (100% in females and 91.7% in males).
Multiple Regression Analysis of Unconfined Compression Strength of Mine Tailings Matrices
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mahmood Ali A.
2017-01-01
Full Text Available As part of a novel approach of sustainable development of mine tailings, experimental and numerical analysis is carried out on newly formulated tailings matrices. Several physical characteristic tests are carried out including the unconfined compression strength test to ascertain the integrity of these matrices when subjected to loading. The current paper attempts a multiple regression analysis of the unconfined compressive strength test results of these matrices to investigate the most pertinent factors affecting their strength. Results of this analysis showed that the suggested equation is reasonably applicable to the range of binder combinations used.
Davies, Patrick Laurie
2014-01-01
Introduction IntroductionApproximate Models Notation Two Modes of Statistical AnalysisTowards One Mode of Analysis Approximation, Randomness, Chaos, Determinism ApproximationA Concept of Approximation Approximation Approximating a Data Set by a Model Approximation Regions Functionals and EquivarianceRegularization and Optimality Metrics and DiscrepanciesStrong and Weak Topologies On Being (almost) Honest Simulations and Tables Degree of Approximation and p-values ScalesStability of Analysis The Choice of En(α, P) Independence Procedures, Approximation and VaguenessDiscrete Models The Empirical Density Metrics and Discrepancies The Total Variation Metric The Kullback-Leibler and Chi-Squared Discrepancies The Po(λ) ModelThe b(k, p) and nb(k, p) Models The Flying Bomb Data The Student Study Times Data OutliersOutliers, Data Analysis and Models Breakdown Points and Equivariance Identifying Outliers and Breakdown Outliers in Multivariate Data Outliers in Linear Regression Outliers in Structured Data The Location...
iamxt: Max-tree toolbox for image processing and analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Roberto Souza
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The iamxt is an array-based max-tree toolbox implemented in Python using the NumPy library for array processing. It has state of the art methods for building and processing the max-tree, and a large set of visualization tools that allow to view the tree and the contents of its nodes. The array-based programming style and max-tree representation used in the toolbox make it simple to use. The intended audience of this toolbox includes mathematical morphology students and researchers that want to develop research in the field and image processing researchers that need a toolbox simple to use and easy to integrate in their applications.
Charles H. (Hobie) Perry; Kevin J. Horn; R. Quinn Thomas; Linda H. Pardo; Erica A.H. Smithwick; Doug Baldwin; Gregory B. Lawrence; Scott W. Bailey; Sabine Braun; Christopher M. Clark; Mark Fenn; Annika Nordin; Jennifer N. Phelan; Paul G. Schaberg; Sam St. Clair; Richard Warby; Shaun Watmough; Steven S. Perakis
2015-01-01
The abundance of temporally and spatially consistent Forest Inventory and Analysis data facilitates hierarchical/multilevel analysis to investigate factors affecting tree growth, scaling from plot-level to continental scales. Herein we use FIA tree and soil inventories in conjunction with various spatial climate and soils data to estimate species-specific responses of...
Chen, Wei-Hsin; Hsu, Hung-Jen; Kumar, Gopalakrishnan; Budzianowski, Wojciech M; Ong, Hwai Chyuan
2017-12-01
This study focuses on the biochar formation and torrefaction performance of sugarcane bagasse, and they are predicted using the bilinear interpolation (BLI), inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation, and regression analysis. It is found that the biomass torrefied at 275°C for 60min or at 300°C for 30min or longer is appropriate to produce biochar as alternative fuel to coal with low carbon footprint, but the energy yield from the torrefaction at 300°C is too low. From the biochar yield, enhancement factor of HHV, and energy yield, the results suggest that the three methods are all feasible for predicting the performance, especially for the enhancement factor. The power parameter of unity in the IDW method provides the best predictions and the error is below 5%. The second order in regression analysis gives a more reasonable approach than the first order, and is recommended for the predictions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using prognostic tools and regression analysis.
Ghinea, Cristina; Drăgoi, Elena Niculina; Comăniţă, Elena-Diana; Gavrilescu, Marius; Câmpean, Teofil; Curteanu, Silvia; Gavrilescu, Maria
2016-11-01
For an adequate planning of waste management systems the accurate forecast of waste generation is an essential step, since various factors can affect waste trends. The application of predictive and prognosis models are useful tools, as reliable support for decision making processes. In this paper some indicators such as: number of residents, population age, urban life expectancy, total municipal solid waste were used as input variables in prognostic models in order to predict the amount of solid waste fractions. We applied Waste Prognostic Tool, regression analysis and time series analysis to forecast municipal solid waste generation and composition by considering the Iasi Romania case study. Regression equations were determined for six solid waste fractions (paper, plastic, metal, glass, biodegradable and other waste). Accuracy Measures were calculated and the results showed that S-curve trend model is the most suitable for municipal solid waste (MSW) prediction. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Development of Compressive Failure Strength for Composite Laminate Using Regression Analysis Method
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Myoung Keon [Agency for Defense Development, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Jeong Won; Yoon, Dong Hyun; Kim, Jae Hoon [Chungnam Nat’l Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-10-15
This paper provides the compressive failure strength value of composite laminate developed by using regression analysis method. Composite material in this document is a Carbon/Epoxy unidirection(UD) tape prepreg(Cycom G40-800/5276-1) cured at 350°F(177°C). The operating temperature is –60°F~+200°F(-55°C - +95°C). A total of 56 compression tests were conducted on specimens from eight (8) distinct laminates that were laid up by standard angle layers (0°, +45°, –45° and 90°). The ASTM-D-6484 standard was used for test method. The regression analysis was performed with the response variable being the laminate ultimate fracture strength and the regressor variables being two ply orientations (0° and ±45°)
Development of Compressive Failure Strength for Composite Laminate Using Regression Analysis Method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Myoung Keon; Lee, Jeong Won; Yoon, Dong Hyun; Kim, Jae Hoon
2016-01-01
This paper provides the compressive failure strength value of composite laminate developed by using regression analysis method. Composite material in this document is a Carbon/Epoxy unidirection(UD) tape prepreg(Cycom G40-800/5276-1) cured at 350°F(177°C). The operating temperature is –60°F~+200°F(-55°C - +95°C). A total of 56 compression tests were conducted on specimens from eight (8) distinct laminates that were laid up by standard angle layers (0°, +45°, –45° and 90°). The ASTM-D-6484 standard was used for test method. The regression analysis was performed with the response variable being the laminate ultimate fracture strength and the regressor variables being two ply orientations (0° and ±45°)
Study on reliability analysis based on multilevel flow models and fault tree method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen Qiang; Yang Ming
2014-01-01
Multilevel flow models (MFM) and fault tree method describe the system knowledge in different forms, so the two methods express an equivalent logic of the system reliability under the same boundary conditions and assumptions. Based on this and combined with the characteristics of MFM, a method mapping MFM to fault tree was put forward, thus providing a way to establish fault tree rapidly and realizing qualitative reliability analysis based on MFM. Taking the safety injection system of pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant as an example, its MFM was established and its reliability was analyzed qualitatively. The analysis result shows that the logic of mapping MFM to fault tree is correct. The MFM is easily understood, created and modified. Compared with the traditional fault tree analysis, the workload is greatly reduced and the modeling time is saved. (authors)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
BUDIMAN
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Budiman, Arisoesilaningsih E. 2012. Predictive model of Amorphophallus muelleri growth in some agroforestry in East Java by multiple regression analysis. Biodiversitas 13: 18-22. The aims of this research was to determine the multiple regression models of vegetative and corm growth of Amorphophallus muelleri Blume in some age variations and habitat conditions of agroforestry in East Java. Descriptive exploratory research method was conducted by systematic random sampling at five agroforestries on four plantations in East Java: Saradan, Bojonegoro, Nganjuk and Blitar. In each agroforestry, we observed A. muelleri vegetative and corm growth on four growing age (1, 2, 3 and 4 years old respectively as well as environmental variables such as altitude, vegetation, climate and soil conditions. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics to compare A. muelleri habitat in five agroforestries. Meanwhile, the influence and contribution of each environmental variable to the growth of A. muelleri vegetative and corm were determined using multiple regression analysis of SPSS 17.0. The multiple regression models of A. muelleri vegetative and corm growth were generated based on some characteristics of agroforestries and age showed high validity with R2 = 88-99%. Regression model showed that age, monthly temperatures, percentage of radiation and soil calcium (Ca content either simultaneously or partially determined the growth of A. muelleri vegetative and corm. Based on these models, the A. muelleri corm reached the optimal growth after four years of cultivation and they will be ready to be harvested. Additionally, the soil Ca content should reach 25.3 me.hg-1 as Sugihwaras agroforestry, with the maximal radiation of 60%.
Detrended fluctuation analysis as a regression framework: Estimating dependence at different scales
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Krištoufek, Ladislav
2015-01-01
Roč. 91, č. 1 (2015), 022802-1-022802-5 ISSN 1539-3755 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GP14-11402P Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Detrended cross-correlation analysis * Regression * Scales Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.288, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/E/kristoufek-0452315.pdf
MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR PREDICTION OF BOILER LOSSES AND BOILER EFFICIENCY
Chayalakshmi C.L
2018-01-01
MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR PREDICTION OF BOILER LOSSES AND BOILER EFFICIENCY ABSTRACT Calculation of boiler efficiency is essential if its parameters need to be controlled for either maintaining or enhancing its efficiency. But determination of boiler efficiency using conventional method is time consuming and very expensive. Hence, it is not recommended to find boiler efficiency frequently. The work presented in this paper deals with establishing the statistical mo...
Use of generalized ordered logistic regression for the analysis of multidrug resistance data.
Agga, Getahun E; Scott, H Morgan
2015-10-01
Statistical analysis of antimicrobial resistance data largely focuses on individual antimicrobial's binary outcome (susceptible or resistant). However, bacteria are becoming increasingly multidrug resistant (MDR). Statistical analysis of MDR data is mostly descriptive often with tabular or graphical presentations. Here we report the applicability of generalized ordinal logistic regression model for the analysis of MDR data. A total of 1,152 Escherichia coli, isolated from the feces of weaned pigs experimentally supplemented with chlortetracycline (CTC) and copper, were tested for susceptibilities against 15 antimicrobials and were binary classified into resistant or susceptible. The 15 antimicrobial agents tested were grouped into eight different antimicrobial classes. We defined MDR as the number of antimicrobial classes to which E. coli isolates were resistant ranging from 0 to 8. Proportionality of the odds assumption of the ordinal logistic regression model was violated only for the effect of treatment period (pre-treatment, during-treatment and post-treatment); but not for the effect of CTC or copper supplementation. Subsequently, a partially constrained generalized ordinal logistic model was built that allows for the effect of treatment period to vary while constraining the effects of treatment (CTC and copper supplementation) to be constant across the levels of MDR classes. Copper (Proportional Odds Ratio [Prop OR]=1.03; 95% CI=0.73-1.47) and CTC (Prop OR=1.1; 95% CI=0.78-1.56) supplementation were not significantly associated with the level of MDR adjusted for the effect of treatment period. MDR generally declined over the trial period. In conclusion, generalized ordered logistic regression can be used for the analysis of ordinal data such as MDR data when the proportionality assumptions for ordered logistic regression are violated. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Regression analysis: An evaluation of the inuences behindthe pricing of beer
Eriksson, Sara; Häggmark, Jonas
2017-01-01
This bachelor thesis in applied mathematics is an analysis of which factors affect the pricing of beer at the Swedish market. A multiple linear regression model is created with the statistical programming language R through a study of the influences for several explanatory variables. For example these variables include country of origin, beer style, volume sold and a Bayesian weighted mean rating from RateBeer, a popular website for beer enthusiasts. The main goal of the project is to find si...
Health care: necessity or luxury good? A meta-regression analysis
Iordache, Ioana Raluca
2014-01-01
When estimating the influence income per capita exerts on health care expenditure, the research in the field offers mixed results. Studies employ different data, estimation techniques and models, which brings about the question whether these differences in research design play any part in explaining the heterogeneity of reported outcomes. By employing meta-regression analysis, the present paper analyzes 220 estimates of health spending income elasticity collected from 54 studies and finds tha...
Regression Analysis for Multivariate Dependent Count Data Using Convolved Gaussian Processes
Sofro, A'yunin; Shi, Jian Qing; Cao, Chunzheng
2017-01-01
Research on Poisson regression analysis for dependent data has been developed rapidly in the last decade. One of difficult problems in a multivariate case is how to construct a cross-correlation structure and at the meantime make sure that the covariance matrix is positive definite. To address the issue, we propose to use convolved Gaussian process (CGP) in this paper. The approach provides a semi-parametric model and offers a natural framework for modeling common mean structure and covarianc...
Sensitivity Analysis for Assessing Effects of Tree Population Dynamics on Soil Bioturbation
Martin, Y. E.; Johnson, E. A.
2012-12-01
demonstrate that wildfire return intervals, recruitment rates and mortality rates are all critical in determining patterns in the number of live trees over time. Further field research is required in a variety of forest settings to better define and understand recruitment and mortality rates as required in tree population dynamics models. Other factors that are important in determining root throw occurrence are topple rates of standing dead trees (consisting of trees that die during competition/thinning or that are killed by the wildfire), and whether or not the standing dead tree snaps at the bole or upheaves a root plate as it topples; once again, additional research is required in different forest settings to better understand this model parameter. When the factors outlined above are integrated together in our tree population dynamics model and sensitivity analysis is conducted, distinct temporal patterns and pulses of root throw and associated soil bioturbation emerge as the model cycles through generations of forest.
Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.
Levine, Hagai; Jørgensen, Niels; Martino-Andrade, Anderson; Mendiola, Jaime; Weksler-Derri, Dan; Mindlis, Irina; Pinotti, Rachel; Swan, Shanna H
2017-11-01
Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. To provide a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of recent trends in sperm counts as measured by sperm concentration (SC) and total sperm count (TSC), and their modification by fertility and geographic group. PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for English language studies of human SC published in 1981-2013. Following a predefined protocol 7518 abstracts were screened and 2510 full articles reporting primary data on SC were reviewed. A total of 244 estimates of SC and TSC from 185 studies of 42 935 men who provided semen samples in 1973-2011 were extracted for meta-regression analysis, as well as information on years of sample collection and covariates [fertility group ('Unselected by fertility' versus 'Fertile'), geographic group ('Western', including North America, Europe Australia and New Zealand versus 'Other', including South America, Asia and Africa), age, ejaculation abstinence time, semen collection method, method of measuring SC and semen volume, exclusion criteria and indicators of completeness of covariate data]. The slopes of SC and TSC were estimated as functions of sample collection year using both simple linear regression and weighted meta-regression models and the latter were adjusted for pre-determined covariates and modification by fertility and geographic group. Assumptions were examined using multiple sensitivity analyses and nonlinear models. SC declined significantly between 1973 and 2011 (slope in unadjusted simple regression models -0.70 million/ml/year; 95% CI: -0.72 to -0.69; P regression analysis reports a significant decline in sperm counts (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, driven by a 50-60% decline among men unselected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because
Regression analysis for LED color detection of visual-MIMO system
Banik, Partha Pratim; Saha, Rappy; Kim, Ki-Doo
2018-04-01
Color detection from a light emitting diode (LED) array using a smartphone camera is very difficult in a visual multiple-input multiple-output (visual-MIMO) system. In this paper, we propose a method to determine the LED color using a smartphone camera by applying regression analysis. We employ a multivariate regression model to identify the LED color. After taking a picture of an LED array, we select the LED array region, and detect the LED using an image processing algorithm. We then apply the k-means clustering algorithm to determine the number of potential colors for feature extraction of each LED. Finally, we apply the multivariate regression model to predict the color of the transmitted LEDs. In this paper, we show our results for three types of environmental light condition: room environmental light, low environmental light (560 lux), and strong environmental light (2450 lux). We compare the results of our proposed algorithm from the analysis of training and test R-Square (%) values, percentage of closeness of transmitted and predicted colors, and we also mention about the number of distorted test data points from the analysis of distortion bar graph in CIE1931 color space.
Robust estimation for homoscedastic regression in the secondary analysis of case-control data
Wei, Jiawei
2012-12-04
Primary analysis of case-control studies focuses on the relationship between disease D and a set of covariates of interest (Y, X). A secondary application of the case-control study, which is often invoked in modern genetic epidemiologic association studies, is to investigate the interrelationship between the covariates themselves. The task is complicated owing to the case-control sampling, where the regression of Y on X is different from what it is in the population. Previous work has assumed a parametric distribution for Y given X and derived semiparametric efficient estimation and inference without any distributional assumptions about X. We take up the issue of estimation of a regression function when Y given X follows a homoscedastic regression model, but otherwise the distribution of Y is unspecified. The semiparametric efficient approaches can be used to construct semiparametric efficient estimates, but they suffer from a lack of robustness to the assumed model for Y given X. We take an entirely different approach. We show how to estimate the regression parameters consistently even if the assumed model for Y given X is incorrect, and thus the estimates are model robust. For this we make the assumption that the disease rate is known or well estimated. The assumption can be dropped when the disease is rare, which is typically so for most case-control studies, and the estimation algorithm simplifies. Simulations and empirical examples are used to illustrate the approach.
Robust estimation for homoscedastic regression in the secondary analysis of case-control data
Wei, Jiawei; Carroll, Raymond J.; Mü ller, Ursula U.; Keilegom, Ingrid Van; Chatterjee, Nilanjan
2012-01-01
Primary analysis of case-control studies focuses on the relationship between disease D and a set of covariates of interest (Y, X). A secondary application of the case-control study, which is often invoked in modern genetic epidemiologic association studies, is to investigate the interrelationship between the covariates themselves. The task is complicated owing to the case-control sampling, where the regression of Y on X is different from what it is in the population. Previous work has assumed a parametric distribution for Y given X and derived semiparametric efficient estimation and inference without any distributional assumptions about X. We take up the issue of estimation of a regression function when Y given X follows a homoscedastic regression model, but otherwise the distribution of Y is unspecified. The semiparametric efficient approaches can be used to construct semiparametric efficient estimates, but they suffer from a lack of robustness to the assumed model for Y given X. We take an entirely different approach. We show how to estimate the regression parameters consistently even if the assumed model for Y given X is incorrect, and thus the estimates are model robust. For this we make the assumption that the disease rate is known or well estimated. The assumption can be dropped when the disease is rare, which is typically so for most case-control studies, and the estimation algorithm simplifies. Simulations and empirical examples are used to illustrate the approach.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Javier Trujillano
2008-02-01
Full Text Available Objetivo: : Realizar una aproximación a la metodología de árboles de decisión tipo CART (Classification and Regression Trees desarrollando un modelo para calcular la probabilidad de muerte hospitalaria en infarto agudo de miocardio (IAM. Método: Se utiliza el conjunto mínimo básico de datos al alta hospitalaria (CMBD de Andalucía, Cataluña, Madrid y País Vasco de los años 2001 y 2002, que incluye los casos con IAM como diagnóstico principal. Los 33.203 pacientes se dividen aleatoriamente (70 y 30 % en grupo de desarrollo (GD = 23.277 y grupo de validación (GV = 9.926. Como CART se utiliza un modelo inductivo basado en el algoritmo de Breiman, con análisis de sensibilidad mediante el índice de Gini y sistema de validación cruzada. Se compara con un modelo de regresión logística (RL y una red neuronal artificial (RNA (multilayer perceptron. Los modelos desarrollados se contrastan en el GV y sus propiedades se comparan con el área bajo la curva ROC (ABC (intervalo de confianza del 95%. Resultados: En el GD el CART con ABC = 0,85 (0,86-0,88, RL 0,87 (0,86-0,88 y RNA 0,85 (0,85-0,86. En el GV el CART con ABC = 0,85 (0,85-0,88, RL 0,86 (0,85-0,88 y RNA 0,84 (0,83-0,86. Conclusiones: Los 3 modelos obtienen resultados similares en su capacidad de discriminación. El modelo CART ofrece como ventaja su simplicidad de uso y de interpretación, ya que las reglas de decisión que generan pueden aplicarse sin necesidad de procesos matemáticos.Objective: To provide an overview of decision trees based on CART (Classification and Regression Trees methodology. As an example, we developed a CART model intended to estimate the probability of intrahospital death from acute myocardial infarction (AMI. Method: We employed the minimum data set (MDS of Andalusia, Catalonia, Madrid and the Basque Country (2001-2002, which included 33,203 patients with a diagnosis of AMI. The 33,203 patients were randomly divided (70% and 30% into the development (DS
Greensmith, David J
2014-01-01
Here I present an Excel based program for the analysis of intracellular Ca transients recorded using fluorescent indicators. The program can perform all the necessary steps which convert recorded raw voltage changes into meaningful physiological information. The program performs two fundamental processes. (1) It can prepare the raw signal by several methods. (2) It can then be used to analyze the prepared data to provide information such as absolute intracellular Ca levels. Also, the rates of change of Ca can be measured using multiple, simultaneous regression analysis. I demonstrate that this program performs equally well as commercially available software, but has numerous advantages, namely creating a simplified, self-contained analysis workflow. Copyright © 2013 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Orthology prediction at scalable resolution by phylogenetic tree analysis
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Huynen Martijn A
2007-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Orthology is one of the cornerstones of gene function prediction. Dividing the phylogenetic relations between genes into either orthologs or paralogs is however an oversimplification. Already in two-species gene-phylogenies, the complicated, non-transitive nature of phylogenetic relations results in inparalogs and outparalogs. For situations with more than two species we lack semantics to specifically describe the phylogenetic relations, let alone to exploit them. Published procedures to extract orthologous groups from phylogenetic trees do not allow identification of orthology at various levels of resolution, nor do they document the relations between the orthologous groups. Results We introduce "levels of orthology" to describe the multi-level nature of gene relations. This is implemented in a program LOFT (Levels of Orthology From Trees that assigns hierarchical orthology numbers to genes based on a phylogenetic tree. To decide upon speciation and gene duplication events in a tree LOFT can be instructed either to perform classical species-tree reconciliation or to use the species overlap between partitions in the tree. The hierarchical orthology numbers assigned by LOFT effectively summarize the phylogenetic relations between genes. The resulting high-resolution orthologous groups are depicted in colour, facilitating visual inspection of (large trees. A benchmark for orthology prediction, that takes into account the varying levels of orthology between genes, shows that the phylogeny-based high-resolution orthology assignments made by LOFT are reliable. Conclusion The "levels of orthology" concept offers high resolution, reliable orthology, while preserving the relations between orthologous groups. A Windows as well as a preliminary Java version of LOFT is available from the LOFT website http://www.cmbi.ru.nl/LOFT.
To, Minh-Son; Prakash, Shivesh; Poonnoose, Santosh I; Bihari, Shailesh
2018-05-01
The study uses meta-regression analysis to quantify the dose-dependent effects of statin pharmacotherapy on vasospasm, delayed ischemic neurologic deficits (DIND), and mortality in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Prospective, retrospective observational studies, and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were retrieved by a systematic database search. Summary estimates were expressed as absolute risk (AR) for a given statin dose or control (placebo). Meta-regression using inverse variance weighting and robust variance estimation was performed to assess the effect of statin dose on transformed AR in a random effects model. Dose-dependence of predicted AR with 95% confidence interval (CI) was recovered by using Miller's Freeman-Tukey inverse. The database search and study selection criteria yielded 18 studies (2594 patients) for analysis. These included 12 RCTs, 4 retrospective observational studies, and 2 prospective observational studies. Twelve studies investigated simvastatin, whereas the remaining studies investigated atorvastatin, pravastatin, or pitavastatin, with simvastatin-equivalent doses ranging from 20 to 80 mg. Meta-regression revealed dose-dependent reductions in Freeman-Tukey-transformed AR of vasospasm (slope coefficient -0.00404, 95% CI -0.00720 to -0.00087; P = 0.0321), DIND (slope coefficient -0.00316, 95% CI -0.00586 to -0.00047; P = 0.0392), and mortality (slope coefficient -0.00345, 95% CI -0.00623 to -0.00067; P = 0.0352). The present meta-regression provides weak evidence for dose-dependent reductions in vasospasm, DIND and mortality associated with acute statin use after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. However, the analysis was limited by substantial heterogeneity among individual studies. Greater dosing strategies are a potential consideration for future RCTs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Hayes, Andrew F; Rockwood, Nicholas J
2017-11-01
There have been numerous treatments in the clinical research literature about various design, analysis, and interpretation considerations when testing hypotheses about mechanisms and contingencies of effects, popularly known as mediation and moderation analysis. In this paper we address the practice of mediation and moderation analysis using linear regression in the pages of Behaviour Research and Therapy and offer some observations and recommendations, debunk some popular myths, describe some new advances, and provide an example of mediation, moderation, and their integration as conditional process analysis using the PROCESS macro for SPSS and SAS. Our goal is to nudge clinical researchers away from historically significant but increasingly old school approaches toward modifications, revisions, and extensions that characterize more modern thinking about the analysis of the mechanisms and contingencies of effects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Signe Marie; Hauger, Hanne; Ritz, Christian
2018-01-01
Mediation analysis is often based on fitting two models, one including and another excluding a potential mediator, and subsequently quantify the mediated effects by combining parameter estimates from these two models. Standard errors of such derived parameters may be approximated using the delta...... method. For a study evaluating a treatment effect on visual acuity, a binary outcome, we demonstrate how mediation analysis may conveniently be carried out by means of marginally fitted logistic regression models in combination with the delta method. Several metrics of mediation are estimated and results...
A regression analysis of the effect of energy use in agriculture
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Karkacier, Osman; Gokalp Goktolga, Z.; Cicek, Adnan
2006-01-01
This study investigates the impacts of energy use on productivity of Turkey's agriculture. It reports the results of a regression analysis of the relationship between energy use and agricultural productivity. The study is based on the analysis of the yearbook data for the period 1971-2003. Agricultural productivity was specified as a function of its energy consumption (TOE) and gross additions of fixed assets during the year. Least square (LS) was employed to estimate equation parameters. The data of this study comes from the State Institute of Statistics (SIS) and The Ministry of Energy of Turkey
Study of Hip Fracture Risk using Tree Structured Survival Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lu Y
2003-01-01
Full Text Available In dieser Studie wird das Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei postmenopausalen Frauen untersucht, indem die Frauen in verschiedene Subgruppen hinsichtlich dieses Risikos klassifiziert werden. Frauen in einer gemeinsamen Subgruppe haben ein ähnliches Risiko, hingegen in verschiedenen Subgruppen ein unterschiedliches Hüftfraktur-Risiko. Die Subgruppen wurden mittels der Tree Structured Survival Analysis (TSSA aus den Daten von 7.665 Frauen der SOF (Study of Osteoporosis Fracture ermittelt. Bei allen Studienteilnehmerinnen wurde die Knochenmineraldichte (BMD von Unterarm, Oberschenkelhals, Hüfte und Wirbelsäule gemessen. Die Zeit von der BMD-Messung bis zur Hüftfraktur wurde als Endpunkt notiert. Eine Stichprobe von 75% der Teilnehmerinnen wurde verwendet, um die prognostischen Subgruppen zu bilden (Trainings-Datensatz, während die anderen 25% als Bestätigung der Ergebnisse diente (Validierungs-Datensatz. Aufgrund des Trainings-Datensatzes konnten mittels TSSA 4 Subgruppen identifiziert werden, deren Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei einem Follow-up von im Mittel 6,5 Jahren bei 19%, 9%, 4% und 1% lag. Die Einteilung in die Subgruppen erfolgte aufgrund der Bewertung der BMD des Ward'schen Dreiecks sowie des Oberschenkelhalses und nach dem Alter. Diese Ergebnisse konnten mittels des Validierungs-Datensatzes reproduziert werden, was die Sinnhaftigkeit der Klassifizierungregeln in einem klinischen Setting bestätigte. Mittels TSSA war eine sinnvolle, aussagekräftige und reproduzierbare Identifikation von prognostischen Subgruppen, die auf dem Alter und den BMD-Werten beruhen, möglich. In this paper we studied the risk of hip fracture for post-menopausal women by classifying women into different subgroups based on their risk of hip fracture. The subgroups were generated such that all the women in a particular subgroup had relatively similar risk while women belonging to two different subgroups had rather different risks of hip fracture. We used the Tree Structured
Economic Cost-Analysis of the Impact of Container Size on Transplanted Tree Value
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Lauren M. Garcia Chance
2017-04-01
Full Text Available The benefits and costs of varying container sizes have yet to be fully evaluated to determine which container size affords the most advantageous opportunity for consumers. To determine value of the tree following transplant, clonal replicates of Vitex agnus-castus L. [Chaste Tree], Acer rubrum L. var. drummondii (Hook. & Arn. ex Nutt. Sarg. [Drummond Red Maple], and Taxodium distichum (L. Rich. [Baldcypress] were grown under common conditions in each of five container sizes 3.5, 11.7, 23.3, 97.8 or 175.0 L, respectively (#1, 3, 7, 25 or 45. In June 2013, six trees of each container size and species were transplanted to a sandy clay loam field in College Station, Texas. To determine the increase in value over a two-year post-transplant period, height and caliper measurements were taken at the end of nursery production and again at the end of the second growing season in the field, October 2014. Utilizing industry standards, initial costs of materials and labor were then compared with the size of trees after two years. Replacement cost analysis after two growing seasons indicated a greater increase in value for 11.7 and 23.3 L trees compared to losses in value for some 175.0 L trees. In comparison with trees from larger containers, trees from smaller size containers experienced shorter establishment times and increased growth rates, thus creating a quicker return on investment for trees transplanted from the smaller container sizes.
Length bias correction in gene ontology enrichment analysis using logistic regression.
Mi, Gu; Di, Yanming; Emerson, Sarah; Cumbie, Jason S; Chang, Jeff H
2012-01-01
When assessing differential gene expression from RNA sequencing data, commonly used statistical tests tend to have greater power to detect differential expression of genes encoding longer transcripts. This phenomenon, called "length bias", will influence subsequent analyses such as Gene Ontology enrichment analysis. In the presence of length bias, Gene Ontology categories that include longer genes are more likely to be identified as enriched. These categories, however, are not necessarily biologically more relevant. We show that one can effectively adjust for length bias in Gene Ontology analysis by including transcript length as a covariate in a logistic regression model. The logistic regression model makes the statistical issue underlying length bias more transparent: transcript length becomes a confounding factor when it correlates with both the Gene Ontology membership and the significance of the differential expression test. The inclusion of the transcript length as a covariate allows one to investigate the direct correlation between the Gene Ontology membership and the significance of testing differential expression, conditional on the transcript length. We present both real and simulated data examples to show that the logistic regression approach is simple, effective, and flexible.
Hassanzadeh, S.; Hosseinibalam, F.; Omidvari, M.
2008-04-01
Data of seven meteorological variables (relative humidity, wet temperature, dry temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, ground temperature and sun radiation time) and ozone values have been used for statistical analysis. Meteorological variables and ozone values were analyzed using both multiple linear regression and principal component methods. Data for the period 1999-2004 are analyzed jointly using both methods. For all periods, temperature dependent variables were highly correlated, but were all negatively correlated with relative humidity. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the meteorological variables using the meteorological variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to obtain subsets of the predictor variables to be included in the linear regression model of the meteorological variables. In 1999, 2001 and 2002 one of the meteorological variables was weakly influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations. However, the model did not predict that the meteorological variables for the year 2000 were not influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations that point to variation in sun radiation. This could be due to other factors that were not explicitly considered in this study.
A comparison between fault tree analysis and reliability graph with general gates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Man Cheol; Seong, Poong Hyun; Jung, Woo Sik
2004-01-01
Currently, level-1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is performed on the basis of event tree analysis and fault tree analysis. Kim and Seong developed a new method for system reliability analysis named reliability graph with general gates (RGGG). The RGGG is an extension of conventional reliability graph, and it utilizes the transformation of system structures to equivalent Bayesian networks for quantitative calculation. The RGGG is considered to be intuitive and easy-to-use while as powerful as fault tree analysis. As an example, Kim and Seong already showed that the Bayesian network model for digital plant protection system (DPPS), which is transformed from the RGGG model for DPPS, can be shown in 1 page, while the fault tree model for DPPS consists of 64 pages of fault trees. Kim and Seong also insisted that Bayesian network model for DPPS is more intuitive because the one-to-one matching between each node in the Bayesian network model and an actual component of DPPS is possible. In this paper, we are going to give a comparison between fault tree analysis and the RGGG method with two example systems. The two example systems are the recirculation of in Korean standard nuclear power plants (KSNP) and the fault tree model developed by Rauzy
Wang, Xuntao; Feng, Jianhu; Wang, Hu; Hong, Shidi; Zheng, Supei
2018-03-01
A three-dimensional finite element box girder bridge and its asphalt concrete deck pavement were established by ANSYS software, and the interlayer bonding condition of asphalt concrete deck pavement was assumed to be contact bonding condition. Orthogonal experimental design is used to arrange the testing plans of material parameters, and an evaluation of the effect of different material parameters in the mechanical response of asphalt concrete surface layer was conducted by multiple linear regression model and using the results from the finite element analysis. Results indicated that stress regression equations can well predict the stress of the asphalt concrete surface layer, and elastic modulus of waterproof layer has a significant influence on stress values of asphalt concrete surface layer.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Urrutia, J D; Bautista, L A; Baccay, E B
2014-01-01
The aim of this study was to develop mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties such as death, number of injured persons, affected families and total cost of damage. To quantify the direct damages from earthquakes to human beings and properties given the magnitude, intensity, depth of focus, location of epicentre and time duration, the regression models were made. The researchers formulated models through regression analysis using matrices and used α = 0.01. The study considered thirty destructive earthquakes that hit the Philippines from the inclusive years 1968 to 2012. Relevant data about these said earthquakes were obtained from Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. Data on damages and casualties were gathered from the records of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. This study will be of great value in emergency planning, initiating and updating programs for earthquake hazard reduction in the Philippines, which is an earthquake-prone country.
Identification of cotton properties to improve yarn count quality by using regression analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Amin, M.; Ullah, M.; Akbar, A.
2014-01-01
Identification of raw material characteristics towards yarn count variation was studied by using statistical techniques. Regression analysis is used to meet the objective. Stepwise regression is used for mode) selection, and coefficient of determination and mean squared error (MSE) criteria are used to identify the contributing factors of cotton properties for yam count. Statistical assumptions of normality, autocorrelation and multicollinearity are evaluated by using probability plot, Durbin Watson test, variance inflation factor (VIF), and then model fitting is carried out. It is found that, invisible (INV), nepness (Nep), grayness (RD), cotton trash (TR) and uniformity index (VI) are the main contributing cotton properties for yarn count variation. The results are also verified by Pareto chart. (author)
COLOR IMAGE RETRIEVAL BASED ON FEATURE FUSION THROUGH MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. Seetharaman
2015-08-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel technique based on feature fusion using multiple linear regression analysis, and the least-square estimation method is employed to estimate the parameters. The given input query image is segmented into various regions according to the structure of the image. The color and texture features are extracted on each region of the query image, and the features are fused together using the multiple linear regression model. The estimated parameters of the model, which is modeled based on the features, are formed as a vector called a feature vector. The Canberra distance measure is adopted to compare the feature vectors of the query and target images. The F-measure is applied to evaluate the performance of the proposed technique. The obtained results expose that the proposed technique is comparable to the other existing techniques.
THE PROGNOSIS OF RUSSIAN DEFENSE INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT IMPLEMENTED THROUGH REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L.M. Kapustina
2007-03-01
Full Text Available The article illustrates the results of investigation the major internal and external factors which influence the development of the defense industry, as well as the results of regression analysis which quantitatively displays the factorial contribution in the growth rate of Russian defense industry. On the basis of calculated regression dependences the authors fulfilled the medium-term prognosis of defense industry. Optimistic and inertial versions of defense product growth rate for the period up to 2009 are based on scenario conditions in Russian economy worked out by the Ministry of economy and development. In conclusion authors point out which factors and conditions have the largest impact on successful and stable operation of Russian defense industry.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gopal Rajendiran
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this research work is to build a multiple linear regression model for the characteristics of multicylinder diesel engine using multicomponent blends (diesel- pungamia methyl ester-ethanol as fuel. Nine blends were tested by varying diesel (100 to 10% by Vol., biodiesel (80 to 10% by vol. and keeping ethanol as 10% constant. The brake thermal efficiency, smoke, oxides of nitrogen, carbon dioxide, maximum cylinder pressure, angle of maximum pressure, angle of 5% and 90% mass burning were predicted based on load, speed, diesel and biodiesel percentage. To validate this regression model another multi component fuel comprising diesel-palm methyl ester-ethanol was used in same engine. Statistical analysis was carried out between predicted and experimental data for both fuel. The performance, emission and combustion characteristics of multi cylinder diesel engine using similar fuel blends can be predicted without any expenses for experimentation.
Improvement of testing and maintenance based on fault tree analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cepin, M.
2000-01-01
Testing and maintenance of safety equipment is an important issue, which significantly contributes to safe and efficient operation of a nuclear power plant. In this paper a method, which extends the classical fault tree with time, is presented. Its mathematical model is represented by a set of equations, which include time requirements defined in the house event matrix. House events matrix is a representation of house events switched on and off through the discrete points of time. It includes house events, which timely switch on and off parts of the fault tree in accordance with the status of the plant configuration. Time dependent top event probability is calculated by the fault tree evaluations. Arrangement of components outages is determined on base of minimization of mean system unavailability. The results show that application of the method may improve the time placement of testing and maintenance activities of safety equipment. (author)
Event tree analysis for the system of hybrid reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang Yongwei; Qiu Lijian
1993-01-01
The application of probabilistic risk assessment for fusion-fission hybrid reactor is introduced. A hybrid reactor system has been analysed using event trees. According to the character of the conceptual design of Hefei Fusion-fission Experimental Hybrid Breeding Reactor, the probabilities of the event tree series induced by 4 typical initiating events were calculated. The results showed that the conceptual design is safe and reasonable. through this paper, the safety character of hybrid reactor system has been understood more deeply. Some suggestions valuable to safety design for hybrid reactor have been proposed
Fault trees based on past accidents. Factorial analysis of events
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vaillant, M.
1977-01-01
The method of the fault tree is already useful in the qualitative step before any reliability calculation. The construction of the tree becomes even simpler when we just want to describe how the events happened. Differently from screenplays that introduce several possibilities by means of the conjunction OR, you only have here the conjunction AND, which will not be written at all. This method is presented by INRS (1) for the study of industrial injuries; it may also be applied to material damages. (orig.) [de
Leite, Fábio R M; Nascimento, Gustavo G; Demarco, Flávio F; Gomes, Brenda P F A; Pucci, Cesar R; Martinho, Frederico C
2015-05-01
This systematic review and meta-regression analysis aimed to calculate a combined prevalence estimate and evaluate the prevalence of different Treponema species in primary and secondary endodontic infections, including symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. The MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, Scielo, Web of Knowledge, and Scopus databases were searched without starting date restriction up to and including March 2014. Only reports in English were included. The selected literature was reviewed by 2 authors and classified as suitable or not to be included in this review. Lists were compared, and, in case of disagreements, decisions were made after a discussion based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. A pooled prevalence of Treponema species in endodontic infections was estimated. Additionally, a meta-regression analysis was performed. Among the 265 articles identified in the initial search, only 51 were included in the final analysis. The studies were classified into 2 different groups according to the type of endodontic infection and whether it was an exclusively primary/secondary study (n = 36) or a primary/secondary comparison (n = 15). The pooled prevalence of Treponema species was 41.5% (95% confidence interval, 35.9-47.0). In the multivariate model of meta-regression analysis, primary endodontic infections (P apical abscess, symptomatic apical periodontitis (P < .001), and concomitant presence of 2 or more species (P = .028) explained the heterogeneity regarding the prevalence rates of Treponema species. Our findings suggest that Treponema species are important pathogens involved in endodontic infections, particularly in cases of primary and acute infections. Copyright © 2015 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Regression analysis of mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data with additive rate models.
Zhu, Liang; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L
2015-03-01
Event-history studies of recurrent events are often conducted in fields such as demography, epidemiology, medicine, and social sciences (Cook and Lawless, 2007, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events. New York: Springer-Verlag; Zhao et al., 2011, Test 20, 1-42). For such analysis, two types of data have been extensively investigated: recurrent-event data and panel-count data. However, in practice, one may face a third type of data, mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data or mixed event-history data. Such data occur if some study subjects are monitored or observed continuously and thus provide recurrent-event data, while the others are observed only at discrete times and hence give only panel-count data. A more general situation is that each subject is observed continuously over certain time periods but only at discrete times over other time periods. There exists little literature on the analysis of such mixed data except that published by Zhu et al. (2013, Statistics in Medicine 32, 1954-1963). In this article, we consider the regression analysis of mixed data using the additive rate model and develop some estimating equation-based approaches to estimate the regression parameters of interest. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established, and the numerical studies suggest that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations. The approach is applied to a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study that motivated this study. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Omokhafe, KO.
2001-01-01
Full Text Available The correlative path analysis between tree dryness and four latex parameters was studied in eleven clones of Hevea brasiliensis. The latex parameters used for evaluation were initial volume, initial flow rate, final volume and plugging index with tree dryness as the dependent factor. Estimates of direct and indirect effects of each of the latex parameters on tree dryness were calculated through linear correlation and path analysis. The correlation coefficient between initial volume and initial flow rate was 1.00 and both characters had the same correlation coefficients with other latex parameters and tree dryness. This implies that initial volume and initial flow rate are alternatives for evaluation of correlation between latex parameters and tree dryness. There was significant correlation between initial volume, initial flow rate and tree dryness at V = -0.52 and high indirect effect of initial volume and initial flow rate through final volume. In addition, despite the low correlation coefficient of V = -0.20 between final volume and tree dryness, the direct effect of final volume on tree dryness was high at 0.812. Final volume is therefore an important factor in the incidence of tree dryness.
Nicolussi, Kurt; Kaufmann, Matthias; Patzelt, Gernot; van der Plicht, Johannes; Thurner, Andrea
2005-01-01
The altitude of the Alpine tree-line has often been used as proxy for the climatic conditions in the Holocene epoch. The usual approach for establishing a record for this proxy is the analysis of pollen and macro remains. We analysed living trees and subfossil logs from the timberline ecotone in the
The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.
Bamber, J H; Evans, S A
2016-08-01
The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Quantitative Attack Tree Analysis via Priced Timed Automata
Kumar, Rajesh; Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Sankaranarayanan, Sriram; Vicario, Enrico
The success of a security attack crucially depends on the resources available to an attacker: time, budget, skill level, and risk appetite. Insight in these dependencies and the most vulnerable system parts is key to providing effective counter measures. This paper considers attack trees, one of the
A formal analysis of a dynamic distributed spanning tree algorithm
Mooij, A.J.; Wesselink, J.W.
2003-01-01
Abstract. We analyze the spanning tree algorithm in the IEEE 1394.1 draft standard, which correctness has not previously been proved. This algorithm is a fully-dynamic distributed graph algorithm, which, in general, is hard to develop. The approach we use is to formally develop an algorithm that is
Fuzzy set theoretic approach to fault tree analysis | Tyagi ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This approach can be widely used to improve the reliability and to reduce the operating cost of a system. The proposed techniques are discussed and illustrated by taking an example of a nuclear power plant. Keywords: Fault tree, Triangular and Trapezoidal fuzzy number, Fuzzy importance, Ranking of fuzzy numbers ...
Quantitative security and safety analysis with attack-fault trees
Kumar, Rajesh; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette
2017-01-01
Cyber physical systems, like power plants, medical devices and data centers have to meet high standards, both in terms of safety (i.e. absence of unintentional failures) and security (i.e. no disruptions due to malicious attacks). This paper presents attack fault trees (AFTs), a formalism that
Acoustic measurements on trees and logs: a review and analysis
Xiping Wang
2013-01-01
Acoustic technologies have been well established as material evaluation tools in the past several decades, and their use has become widely accepted in the forest products industry for online quality control and products grading. Recent research developments on acoustic sensing technology offer further opportunities to evaluate standing trees and logs for general wood...
Oil and gas pipeline construction cost analysis and developing regression models for cost estimation
Thaduri, Ravi Kiran
In this study, cost data for 180 pipelines and 136 compressor stations have been analyzed. On the basis of the distribution analysis, regression models have been developed. Material, Labor, ROW and miscellaneous costs make up the total cost of a pipeline construction. The pipelines are analyzed based on different pipeline lengths, diameter, location, pipeline volume and year of completion. In a pipeline construction, labor costs dominate the total costs with a share of about 40%. Multiple non-linear regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of pipelines for various cross-sectional areas, lengths and locations. The Compressor stations are analyzed based on the capacity, year of completion and location. Unlike the pipeline costs, material costs dominate the total costs in the construction of compressor station, with an average share of about 50.6%. Land costs have very little influence on the total costs. Similar regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of compressor station for various capacities and locations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Filip Kokotovic
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The study of human capital relevance to economic growth is becoming increasingly important taking into account its relevance in many of the Sustainable Development Goals proposed by the UN. This paper conducted a panel regression analysis of selected SE European countries and Scandinavian countries using the Granger causality test and pooled panel regression. In order to test the relevance of human capital on economic growth, several human capital proxy variables were identified. Aside from the human capital proxy variables, other explanatory variables were selected using stepwise regression while the dependant variable was GDP. This paper concludes that there are significant structural differences in the economies of the two observed panels. Of the human capital proxy variables observed, for the panel of SE European countries only life expectancy was statistically significant and it had a negative impact on economic growth, while in the panel of Scandinavian countries total public expenditure on education had a statistically significant positive effect on economic growth. Based upon these results and existing studies, this paper concludes that human capital has a far more significant impact on economic growth in more developed economies.
Ryu, Duchwan
2010-09-28
We consider nonparametric regression analysis in a generalized linear model (GLM) framework for data with covariates that are the subject-specific random effects of longitudinal measurements. The usual assumption that the effects of the longitudinal covariate processes are linear in the GLM may be unrealistic and if this happens it can cast doubt on the inference of observed covariate effects. Allowing the regression functions to be unknown, we propose to apply Bayesian nonparametric methods including cubic smoothing splines or P-splines for the possible nonlinearity and use an additive model in this complex setting. To improve computational efficiency, we propose the use of data-augmentation schemes. The approach allows flexible covariance structures for the random effects and within-subject measurement errors of the longitudinal processes. The posterior model space is explored through a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. The proposed methods are illustrated and compared to other approaches, the "naive" approach and the regression calibration, via simulations and by an application that investigates the relationship between obesity in adulthood and childhood growth curves. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.
Saunders, Christina T; Blume, Jeffrey D
2017-10-26
Mediation analysis explores the degree to which an exposure's effect on an outcome is diverted through a mediating variable. We describe a classical regression framework for conducting mediation analyses in which estimates of causal mediation effects and their variance are obtained from the fit of a single regression model. The vector of changes in exposure pathway coefficients, which we named the essential mediation components (EMCs), is used to estimate standard causal mediation effects. Because these effects are often simple functions of the EMCs, an analytical expression for their model-based variance follows directly. Given this formula, it is instructive to revisit the performance of routinely used variance approximations (e.g., delta method and resampling methods). Requiring the fit of only one model reduces the computation time required for complex mediation analyses and permits the use of a rich suite of regression tools that are not easily implemented on a system of three equations, as would be required in the Baron-Kenny framework. Using data from the BRAIN-ICU study, we provide examples to illustrate the advantages of this framework and compare it with the existing approaches. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.
Robust best linear estimation for regression analysis using surrogate and instrumental variables.
Wang, C Y
2012-04-01
We investigate methods for regression analysis when covariates are measured with errors. In a subset of the whole cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies the classical measurement error model, but it may not have repeated measurements. In addition to the surrogate variables that are available among the subjects in the calibration sample, we assume that there is an instrumental variable (IV) that is available for all study subjects. An IV is correlated with the unobserved true exposure variable and hence can be useful in the estimation of the regression coefficients. We propose a robust best linear estimator that uses all the available data, which is the most efficient among a class of consistent estimators. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal under very weak distributional assumptions. For Poisson or linear regression, the proposed estimator is consistent even if the measurement error from the surrogate or IV is heteroscedastic. Finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator is examined and compared with other estimators via intensive simulation studies. The proposed method and other methods are applied to a bladder cancer case-control study.
Pan-Tropical Analysis of Climate Effects on Seasonal Tree Growth
Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno
2014-01-01
Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent. PMID:24670981
Cheng, Feon W; Gao, Xiang; Bao, Le; Mitchell, Diane C; Wood, Craig; Sliwinski, Martin J; Smiciklas-Wright, Helen; Still, Christopher D; Rolston, David D K; Jensen, Gordon L
2017-07-01
To examine the risk factors of developing functional decline and make probabilistic predictions by using a tree-based method that allows higher order polynomials and interactions of the risk factors. The conditional inference tree analysis, a data mining approach, was used to construct a risk stratification algorithm for developing functional limitation based on BMI and other potential risk factors for disability in 1,951 older adults without functional limitations at baseline (baseline age 73.1 ± 4.2 y). We also analyzed the data with multivariate stepwise logistic regression and compared the two approaches (e.g., cross-validation). Over a mean of 9.2 ± 1.7 years of follow-up, 221 individuals developed functional limitation. Higher BMI, age, and comorbidity were consistently identified as significant risk factors for functional decline using both methods. Based on these factors, individuals were stratified into four risk groups via the conditional inference tree analysis. Compared to the low-risk group, all other groups had a significantly higher risk of developing functional limitation. The odds ratio comparing two extreme categories was 9.09 (95% confidence interval: 4.68, 17.6). Higher BMI, age, and comorbid disease were consistently identified as significant risk factors for functional decline among older individuals across all approaches and analyses. © 2017 The Obesity Society.
Liu, Pudong; Shi, Runhe; Wang, Hong; Bai, Kaixu; Gao, Wei
2014-10-01
Leaf pigments are key elements for plant photosynthesis and growth. Traditional manual sampling of these pigments is labor-intensive and costly, which also has the difficulty in capturing their temporal and spatial characteristics. The aim of this work is to estimate photosynthetic pigments at large scale by remote sensing. For this purpose, inverse model were proposed with the aid of stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) analysis. Furthermore, a leaf radiative transfer model (i.e. PROSPECT model) was employed to simulate the leaf reflectance where wavelength varies from 400 to 780 nm at 1 nm interval, and then these values were treated as the data from remote sensing observations. Meanwhile, simulated chlorophyll concentration (Cab), carotenoid concentration (Car) and their ratio (Cab/Car) were taken as target to build the regression model respectively. In this study, a total of 4000 samples were simulated via PROSPECT with different Cab, Car and leaf mesophyll structures as 70% of these samples were applied for training while the last 30% for model validation. Reflectance (r) and its mathematic transformations (1/r and log (1/r)) were all employed to build regression model respectively. Results showed fair agreements between pigments and simulated reflectance with all adjusted coefficients of determination (R2) larger than 0.8 as 6 wavebands were selected to build the SMLR model. The largest value of R2 for Cab, Car and Cab/Car are 0.8845, 0.876 and 0.8765, respectively. Meanwhile, mathematic transformations of reflectance showed little influence on regression accuracy. We concluded that it was feasible to estimate the chlorophyll and carotenoids and their ratio based on statistical model with leaf reflectance data.
Analysis of sparse data in logistic regression in medical research: A newer approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S Devika
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Background and Objective: In the analysis of dichotomous type response variable, logistic regression is usually used. However, the performance of logistic regression in the presence of sparse data is questionable. In such a situation, a common problem is the presence of high odds ratios (ORs with very wide 95% confidence interval (CI (OR: >999.999, 95% CI: 999.999. In this paper, we addressed this issue by using penalized logistic regression (PLR method. Materials and Methods: Data from case-control study on hyponatremia and hiccups conducted in Christian Medical College, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India was used. The outcome variable was the presence/absence of hiccups and the main exposure variable was the status of hyponatremia. Simulation dataset was created with different sample sizes and with a different number of covariates. Results: A total of 23 cases and 50 controls were used for the analysis of ordinary and PLR methods. The main exposure variable hyponatremia was present in nine (39.13% of the cases and in four (8.0% of the controls. Of the 23 hiccup cases, all were males and among the controls, 46 (92.0% were males. Thus, the complete separation between gender and the disease group led into an infinite OR with 95% CI (OR: >999.999, 95% CI: 999.999 whereas there was a finite and consistent regression coefficient for gender (OR: 5.35; 95% CI: 0.42, 816.48 using PLR. After adjusting for all the confounding variables, hyponatremia entailed 7.9 (95% CI: 2.06, 38.86 times higher risk for the development of hiccups as was found using PLR whereas there was an overestimation of risk OR: 10.76 (95% CI: 2.17, 53.41 using the conventional method. Simulation experiment shows that the estimated coverage probability of this method is near the nominal level of 95% even for small sample sizes and for a large number of covariates. Conclusions: PLR is almost equal to the ordinary logistic regression when the sample size is large and is superior in small cell
Selenium Exposure and Cancer Risk: an Updated Meta-analysis and Meta-regression
Cai, Xianlei; Wang, Chen; Yu, Wanqi; Fan, Wenjie; Wang, Shan; Shen, Ning; Wu, Pengcheng; Li, Xiuyang; Wang, Fudi
2016-01-01
The objective of this study was to investigate the associations between selenium exposure and cancer risk. We identified 69 studies and applied meta-analysis, meta-regression and dose-response analysis to obtain available evidence. The results indicated that high selenium exposure had a protective effect on cancer risk (pooled OR = 0.78; 95%CI: 0.73–0.83). The results of linear and nonlinear dose-response analysis indicated that high serum/plasma selenium and toenail selenium had the efficacy on cancer prevention. However, we did not find a protective efficacy of selenium supplement. High selenium exposure may have different effects on specific types of cancer. It decreased the risk of breast cancer, lung cancer, esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, and prostate cancer, but it was not associated with colorectal cancer, bladder cancer, and skin cancer. PMID:26786590
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kitada, Y.; Makiguchi, M.; Komori, A.; Ichiki, T.
1985-01-01
The records of three earthquakes which had induced significant earthquake response to the piping system were obtained with the earthquake observation system. In the present paper, first, the eigenvalue analysis results for the natural piping system based on the piping support (boundary) conditions are described and second, the frequency and the damping factor evaluation results for each vibrational mode are described. In the present study, the Auto Regressive (AR) analysis method is used in the evaluation of natural frequencies and damping factors. The AR analysis applied here has a capability of direct evaluation of natural frequencies and damping factors from earthquake records observed on a piping system without any information on the input motions to the system. (orig./HP)
Use of generalized regression models for the analysis of stress-rupture data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Booker, M.K.
1978-01-01
The design of components for operation in an elevated-temperature environment often requires a detailed consideration of the creep and creep-rupture properties of the construction materials involved. Techniques for the analysis and extrapolation of creep data have been widely discussed. The paper presents a generalized regression approach to the analysis of such data. This approach has been applied to multiple heat data sets for types 304 and 316 austenitic stainless steel, ferritic 2 1 / 4 Cr-1 Mo steel, and the high-nickel austenitic alloy 800H. Analyses of data for single heats of several materials are also presented. All results appear good. The techniques presented represent a simple yet flexible and powerful means for the analysis and extrapolation of creep and creep-rupture data
Neck-focused panic attacks among Cambodian refugees; a logistic and linear regression analysis.
Hinton, Devon E; Chhean, Dara; Pich, Vuth; Um, Khin; Fama, Jeanne M; Pollack, Mark H
2006-01-01
Consecutive Cambodian refugees attending a psychiatric clinic were assessed for the presence and severity of current--i.e., at least one episode in the last month--neck-focused panic. Among the whole sample (N=130), in a logistic regression analysis, the Anxiety Sensitivity Index (ASI; odds ratio=3.70) and the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS; odds ratio=2.61) significantly predicted the presence of current neck panic (NP). Among the neck panic patients (N=60), in the linear regression analysis, NP severity was significantly predicted by NP-associated flashbacks (beta=.42), NP-associated catastrophic cognitions (beta=.22), and CAPS score (beta=.28). Further analysis revealed the effect of the CAPS score to be significantly mediated (Sobel test [Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 1173-1182]) by both NP-associated flashbacks and catastrophic cognitions. In the care of traumatized Cambodian refugees, NP severity, as well as NP-associated flashbacks and catastrophic cognitions, should be specifically assessed and treated.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yamashita, Y.; Hatanaka, Y.; Torashima, M.; Takahashi, M.; Miyazaki, K.; Okamura, H.
1997-01-01
Purpose: The goal of this study was to maximize the discrimination between benign and malignant masses in patients with sonographically indeterminate ovarian lesions by means of unenhanced and contrast-enhanced MR imaging, and to develop a computer-assisted diagnosis system. Material and Methods: Findings in precontrast and Gd-DTPA contrast-enhanced MR images of 104 patients with 115 sonographically indeterminate ovarian masses were analyzed, and the results were correlated with histopathological findings. Of 115 lesions, 65 were benign (23 cystadenomas, 13 complex cysts, 11 teratomas, 6 fibrothecomas, 12 others) and 50 were malignant (32 ovarian carcinomas, 7 metastatic tumors of the ovary, 4 carcinomas of the fallopian tubes, 7 others). A logistic regression analysis was performed to discriminate between benign and malignant lesions, and a model of a computer-assisted diagnosis was developed. This model was prospectively tested in 75 cases of ovarian tumors found at other institutions. Results: From the univariate analysis, the following parameters were selected as significant for predicting malignancy (p≤0.05): A solid or cystic mass with a large solid component or wall thickness greater than 3 mm; complex internal architecture; ascites; and bilaterality. Based on these parameters, a model of a computer-assisted diagnosis system was developed with the logistic regression analysis. To distinguish benign from malignant lesions, the maximum cut-off point was obtained between 0.47 and 0.51. In a prospective application of this model, 87% of the lesions were accurately identified as benign or malignant. (orig.)
Logistic Regression and Path Analysis Method to Analyze Factors influencing Students’ Achievement
Noeryanti, N.; Suryowati, K.; Setyawan, Y.; Aulia, R. R.
2018-04-01
Students' academic achievement cannot be separated from the influence of two factors namely internal and external factors. The first factors of the student (internal factors) consist of intelligence (X1), health (X2), interest (X3), and motivation of students (X4). The external factors consist of family environment (X5), school environment (X6), and society environment (X7). The objects of this research are eighth grade students of the school year 2016/2017 at SMPN 1 Jiwan Madiun sampled by using simple random sampling. Primary data are obtained by distributing questionnaires. The method used in this study is binary logistic regression analysis that aims to identify internal and external factors that affect student’s achievement and how the trends of them. Path Analysis was used to determine the factors that influence directly, indirectly or totally on student’s achievement. Based on the results of binary logistic regression, variables that affect student’s achievement are interest and motivation. And based on the results obtained by path analysis, factors that have a direct impact on student’s achievement are students’ interest (59%) and students’ motivation (27%). While the factors that have indirect influences on students’ achievement, are family environment (97%) and school environment (37).
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gunay, Ahmet
2007-01-01
The experimental data of ammonium exchange by natural Bigadic clinoptilolite was evaluated using nonlinear regression analysis. Three two-parameters isotherm models (Langmuir, Freundlich and Temkin) and three three-parameters isotherm models (Redlich-Peterson, Sips and Khan) were used to analyse the equilibrium data. Fitting of isotherm models was determined using values of standard normalization error procedure (SNE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ). HYBRID error function provided lowest sum of normalized error and Khan model had better performance for modeling the equilibrium data. Thermodynamic investigation indicated that ammonium removal by clinoptilolite was favorable at lower temperatures and exothermic in nature
A REVIEW ON THE USE OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN STUDIES OF AUDIT QUALITY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Agung Dodit Muliawan
2015-07-01
Full Text Available This study aimed to review how regression analysis has been used in studies of abstract phenomenon, such as audit quality, an importance concept in the auditing practice (Schroeder et al., 1986, yet is not well defined. The articles reviewed were the research articles that include audit quality as research variable, either as dependent or independent variables. The articles were purposefully selected to represent balance combination between audit specific and more general accounting journals and between Anglo Saxon and Anglo American journals. The articles were published between 1983-2011 and from the A/A class journal based on ERA 2010’s classifications. The study found that most of the articles reviewed used multiple regression analysis and treated audit quality as dependent variable and measured it by using a proxy. This study also highlights the size of data sample used and the lack of discussions about the assumptions of the statistical analysis used in most of the articles reviewed. This study concluded that the effectiveness and validity of multiple regressions do not only depends on its application by the researchers but also on how the researchers communicate their findings to the audience. KEYWORDS Audit quality, regression analysis ABSTRAK Kajian ini bertujuan untuk mereviu bagaimana analisa regresi digunakan dalam suatu fenomena abstrak seperti kualitas audit, suatu konsep yang penting dalam praktik audit (Schroeder et al., 1986 namun belum terdefinisi dengan jelas. Artikel yang direviu dalam kajian ini adalah artikel penelitian yang memasukkan kualitas audit sebagai variabel penelitian, baik sebagai variabel independen maupun dependen. Artikel-artikel tersebut dipilih dengan cara purposif sampling untuk mendapatkan keterwakilan yang seimbang antara artikel jurnal khusus audit dan akuntansi secara umum, serta mewakili jurnal Anglo Saxon dan Anglo American. Artikel yang direviu diterbitkan pada periode 1983-2011 oleh jurnal yang
Estimating the causes of traffic accidents using logistic regression and discriminant analysis.
Karacasu, Murat; Ergül, Barış; Altin Yavuz, Arzu
2014-01-01
Factors that affect traffic accidents have been analysed in various ways. In this study, we use the methods of logistic regression and discriminant analysis to determine the damages due to injury and non-injury accidents in the Eskisehir Province. Data were obtained from the accident reports of the General Directorate of Security in Eskisehir; 2552 traffic accidents between January and December 2009 were investigated regarding whether they resulted in injury. According to the results, the effects of traffic accidents were reflected in the variables. These results provide a wealth of information that may aid future measures toward the prevention of undesired results.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buck, J.; Underhill, P.R.; Mokros, S.G.; Morelli, J.; Krause, T.W.; Babbar, V.K.; Lepine, B.
2015-01-01
Nuclear steam generator (SG) support structure degradation and fouling can result in damage to SG tubes and loss of SG efficiency. Conventional eddy current technology is extensively used to detect cracks, frets at supports and other flaws, but has limited capabilities in the presence of multiple degradation modes or fouling. Pulsed eddy current (PEC) combined with principal components analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression models was examined for the inspection of support structure degradation and SG tube off-centering with the goal of extending results to include additional degradation modes. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhigao Zeng
2016-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel algorithm to solve the challenging problem of classifying error-diffused halftone images. We firstly design the class feature matrices, after extracting the image patches according to their statistics characteristics, to classify the error-diffused halftone images. Then, the spectral regression kernel discriminant analysis is used for feature dimension reduction. The error-diffused halftone images are finally classified using an idea similar to the nearest centroids classifier. As demonstrated by the experimental results, our method is fast and can achieve a high classification accuracy rate with an added benefit of robustness in tackling noise.