WorldWideScience

Sample records for regression model analysis

  1. Hierarchical regression analysis in structural Equation Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, P.F.

    1999-01-01

    In a hierarchical or fixed-order regression analysis, the independent variables are entered into the regression equation in a prespecified order. Such an analysis is often performed when the extra amount of variance accounted for in a dependent variable by a specific independent variable is the main

  2. Corporate prediction models, ratios or regression analysis?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijnen, E.J.; Wijn, M.F.C.M.

    1994-01-01

    The models developed in the literature with respect to the prediction of a company s failure are based on ratios. It has been shown before that these models should be rejected on theoretical grounds. Our study of industrial companies in the Netherlands shows that the ratios which are used in

  3. Multiattribute shopping models and ridge regression analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmermans, H.J.P.

    1981-01-01

    Policy decisions regarding retailing facilities essentially involve multiple attributes of shopping centres. If mathematical shopping models are to contribute to these decision processes, their structure should reflect the multiattribute character of retailing planning. Examination of existing

  4. Moderation analysis using a two-level regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ke-Hai; Cheng, Ying; Maxwell, Scott

    2014-10-01

    Moderation analysis is widely used in social and behavioral research. The most commonly used model for moderation analysis is moderated multiple regression (MMR) in which the explanatory variables of the regression model include product terms, and the model is typically estimated by least squares (LS). This paper argues for a two-level regression model in which the regression coefficients of a criterion variable on predictors are further regressed on moderator variables. An algorithm for estimating the parameters of the two-level model by normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) is developed. Formulas for the standard errors (SEs) of the parameter estimates are provided and studied. Results indicate that, when heteroscedasticity exists, NML with the two-level model gives more efficient and more accurate parameter estimates than the LS analysis of the MMR model. When error variances are homoscedastic, NML with the two-level model leads to essentially the same results as LS with the MMR model. Most importantly, the two-level regression model permits estimating the percentage of variance of each regression coefficient that is due to moderator variables. When applied to data from General Social Surveys 1991, NML with the two-level model identified a significant moderation effect of race on the regression of job prestige on years of education while LS with the MMR model did not. An R package is also developed and documented to facilitate the application of the two-level model.

  5. Regression and regression analysis time series prediction modeling on climate data of quetta, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafri, Y.Z.; Kamal, L.

    2007-01-01

    Various statistical techniques was used on five-year data from 1998-2002 of average humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The relationships to regression analysis time series (RATS) were developed for determining the overall trend of these climate parameters on the basis of which forecast models can be corrected and modified. We computed the coefficient of determination as a measure of goodness of fit, to our polynomial regression analysis time series (PRATS). The correlation to multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression analysis time series (MLRATS) were also developed for deciphering the interdependence of weather parameters. Spearman's rand correlation and Goldfeld-Quandt test were used to check the uniformity or non-uniformity of variances in our fit to polynomial regression (PR). The Breusch-Pagan test was applied to MLR and MLRATS, respectively which yielded homoscedasticity. We also employed Bartlett's test for homogeneity of variances on a five-year data of rainfall and humidity, respectively which showed that the variances in rainfall data were not homogenous while in case of humidity, were homogenous. Our results on regression and regression analysis time series show the best fit to prediction modeling on climatic data of Quetta, Pakistan. (author)

  6. Model performance analysis and model validation in logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Arboretti Giancristofaro

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a new model validation procedure for a logistic regression model is presented. At first, we illustrate a brief review of different techniques of model validation. Next, we define a number of properties required for a model to be considered "good", and a number of quantitative performance measures. Lastly, we describe a methodology for the assessment of the performance of a given model by using an example taken from a management study.

  7. Regression analysis of a chemical reaction fouling model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasak, F.; Epstein, N.

    1996-01-01

    A previously reported mathematical model for the initial chemical reaction fouling of a heated tube is critically examined in the light of the experimental data for which it was developed. A regression analysis of the model with respect to that data shows that the reference point upon which the two adjustable parameters of the model were originally based was well chosen, albeit fortuitously. (author). 3 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs

  8. Application of multilinear regression analysis in modeling of soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The application of Multi-Linear Regression Analysis (MLRA) model for predicting soil properties in Calabar South offers a technical guide and solution in foundation designs problems in the area. Forty-five soil samples were collected from fifteen different boreholes at a different depth and 270 tests were carried out for CBR, ...

  9. Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus

    2017-06-01

    Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.

  10. Regression modeling strategies with applications to linear models, logistic and ordinal regression, and survival analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Harrell , Jr , Frank E

    2015-01-01

    This highly anticipated second edition features new chapters and sections, 225 new references, and comprehensive R software. In keeping with the previous edition, this book is about the art and science of data analysis and predictive modeling, which entails choosing and using multiple tools. Instead of presenting isolated techniques, this text emphasizes problem solving strategies that address the many issues arising when developing multivariable models using real data and not standard textbook examples. It includes imputation methods for dealing with missing data effectively, methods for fitting nonlinear relationships and for making the estimation of transformations a formal part of the modeling process, methods for dealing with "too many variables to analyze and not enough observations," and powerful model validation techniques based on the bootstrap.  The reader will gain a keen understanding of predictive accuracy, and the harm of categorizing continuous predictors or outcomes.  This text realistically...

  11. application of multilinear regression analysis in modeling of soil

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Windows User

    Accordingly [1, 3] in their work, they applied linear regression ... (MLRA) is a statistical technique that uses several explanatory ... order to check this, they adopted bivariate correlation analysis .... groups, namely A-1 through A-7, based on their relative expected ..... Multivariate Regression in Gorgan Province North of Iran” ...

  12. Regression Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Freund, Rudolf J; Sa, Ping

    2006-01-01

    The book provides complete coverage of the classical methods of statistical analysis. It is designed to give students an understanding of the purpose of statistical analyses, to allow the student to determine, at least to some degree, the correct type of statistical analyses to be performed in a given situation, and have some appreciation of what constitutes good experimental design

  13. Modeling Information Content Via Dirichlet-Multinomial Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Alberto

    2017-01-01

    Shannon entropy is being increasingly used in biomedical research as an index of complexity and information content in sequences of symbols, e.g. languages, amino acid sequences, DNA methylation patterns and animal vocalizations. Yet, distributional properties of information entropy as a random variable have seldom been the object of study, leading to researchers mainly using linear models or simulation-based analytical approach to assess differences in information content, when entropy is measured repeatedly in different experimental conditions. Here a method to perform inference on entropy in such conditions is proposed. Building on results coming from studies in the field of Bayesian entropy estimation, a symmetric Dirichlet-multinomial regression model, able to deal efficiently with the issue of mean entropy estimation, is formulated. Through a simulation study the model is shown to outperform linear modeling in a vast range of scenarios and to have promising statistical properties. As a practical example, the method is applied to a data set coming from a real experiment on animal communication.

  14. Sensitivity analysis and optimization of system dynamics models : Regression analysis and statistical design of experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    1995-01-01

    This tutorial discusses what-if analysis and optimization of System Dynamics models. These problems are solved, using the statistical techniques of regression analysis and design of experiments (DOE). These issues are illustrated by applying the statistical techniques to a System Dynamics model for

  15. Linear Regression Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Seber, George A F

    2012-01-01

    Concise, mathematically clear, and comprehensive treatment of the subject.* Expanded coverage of diagnostics and methods of model fitting.* Requires no specialized knowledge beyond a good grasp of matrix algebra and some acquaintance with straight-line regression and simple analysis of variance models.* More than 200 problems throughout the book plus outline solutions for the exercises.* This revision has been extensively class-tested.

  16. Methods of Detecting Outliers in A Regression Analysis Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    2013-06-01

    Jun 1, 2013 ... especially true in observational studies .... Simple linear regression and multiple ... The simple linear ..... Grubbs,F.E (1950): Sample Criteria for Testing Outlying observations: Annals of ... In experimental design, the Relative.

  17. 231 Using Multiple Regression Analysis in Modelling the Role of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    of Internal Revenue, Tourism Bureau and hotel records. The multiple regression .... additional guest facilities such as restaurant, a swimming pool or child care and social function ... and provide good quality service to the public. Conclusion.

  18. Multicollinearity and Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daoud, Jamal I.

    2017-12-01

    In regression analysis it is obvious to have a correlation between the response and predictor(s), but having correlation among predictors is something undesired. The number of predictors included in the regression model depends on many factors among which, historical data, experience, etc. At the end selection of most important predictors is something objective due to the researcher. Multicollinearity is a phenomena when two or more predictors are correlated, if this happens, the standard error of the coefficients will increase [8]. Increased standard errors means that the coefficients for some or all independent variables may be found to be significantly different from In other words, by overinflating the standard errors, multicollinearity makes some variables statistically insignificant when they should be significant. In this paper we focus on the multicollinearity, reasons and consequences on the reliability of the regression model.

  19. Additive Intensity Regression Models in Corporate Default Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, David; Medhat, Mamdouh; Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

    2013-01-01

    We consider additive intensity (Aalen) models as an alternative to the multiplicative intensity (Cox) models for analyzing the default risk of a sample of rated, nonfinancial U.S. firms. The setting allows for estimating and testing the significance of time-varying effects. We use a variety of mo...

  20. Regression analysis by example

    CERN Document Server

    Chatterjee, Samprit

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Fourth Edition: ""This book is . . . an excellent source of examples for regression analysis. It has been and still is readily readable and understandable."" -Journal of the American Statistical Association Regression analysis is a conceptually simple method for investigating relationships among variables. Carrying out a successful application of regression analysis, however, requires a balance of theoretical results, empirical rules, and subjective judgment. Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition has been expanded

  1. Methods of Detecting Outliers in A Regression Analysis Model. | Ogu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A Boilers data with dependent variable Y (man-Hour) and four independent variables X1 (Boiler Capacity), X2 (Design Pressure), X3 (Boiler Type), X4 (Drum Type) were used. The analysis of the Boilers data reviewed an unexpected group of Outliers. The results from the findings showed that an observation can be outlying ...

  2. PATH ANALYSIS WITH LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS : EFFECT ANALYSIS OF FULLY RECURSIVE CAUSAL SYSTEMS OF CATEGORICAL VARIABLES

    OpenAIRE

    Nobuoki, Eshima; Minoru, Tabata; Geng, Zhi; Department of Medical Information Analysis, Faculty of Medicine, Oita Medical University; Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Engineering, Kobe University; Department of Probability and Statistics, Peking University

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses path analysis of categorical variables with logistic regression models. The total, direct and indirect effects in fully recursive causal systems are considered by using model parameters. These effects can be explained in terms of log odds ratios, uncertainty differences, and an inner product of explanatory variables and a response variable. A study on food choice of alligators as a numerical exampleis reanalysed to illustrate the present approach.

  3. Data analysis and approximate models model choice, location-scale, analysis of variance, nonparametric regression and image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, Patrick Laurie

    2014-01-01

    Introduction IntroductionApproximate Models Notation Two Modes of Statistical AnalysisTowards One Mode of Analysis Approximation, Randomness, Chaos, Determinism ApproximationA Concept of Approximation Approximation Approximating a Data Set by a Model Approximation Regions Functionals and EquivarianceRegularization and Optimality Metrics and DiscrepanciesStrong and Weak Topologies On Being (almost) Honest Simulations and Tables Degree of Approximation and p-values ScalesStability of Analysis The Choice of En(α, P) Independence Procedures, Approximation and VaguenessDiscrete Models The Empirical Density Metrics and Discrepancies The Total Variation Metric The Kullback-Leibler and Chi-Squared Discrepancies The Po(λ) ModelThe b(k, p) and nb(k, p) Models The Flying Bomb Data The Student Study Times Data OutliersOutliers, Data Analysis and Models Breakdown Points and Equivariance Identifying Outliers and Breakdown Outliers in Multivariate Data Outliers in Linear Regression Outliers in Structured Data The Location...

  4. Development of an empirical model of turbine efficiency using the Taylor expansion and regression analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Xiande; Xu, Yu

    2011-01-01

    The empirical model of turbine efficiency is necessary for the control- and/or diagnosis-oriented simulation and useful for the simulation and analysis of dynamic performances of the turbine equipment and systems, such as air cycle refrigeration systems, power plants, turbine engines, and turbochargers. Existing empirical models of turbine efficiency are insufficient because there is no suitable form available for air cycle refrigeration turbines. This work performs a critical review of empirical models (called mean value models in some literature) of turbine efficiency and develops an empirical model in the desired form for air cycle refrigeration, the dominant cooling approach in aircraft environmental control systems. The Taylor series and regression analysis are used to build the model, with the Taylor series being used to expand functions with the polytropic exponent and the regression analysis to finalize the model. The measured data of a turbocharger turbine and two air cycle refrigeration turbines are used for the regression analysis. The proposed model is compact and able to present the turbine efficiency map. Its predictions agree with the measured data very well, with the corrected coefficient of determination R c 2 ≥ 0.96 and the mean absolute percentage deviation = 1.19% for the three turbines. -- Highlights: → Performed a critical review of empirical models of turbine efficiency. → Developed an empirical model in the desired form for air cycle refrigeration, using the Taylor expansion and regression analysis. → Verified the method for developing the empirical model. → Verified the model.

  5. A primer for biomedical scientists on how to execute model II linear regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludbrook, John

    2012-04-01

    1. There are two very different ways of executing linear regression analysis. One is Model I, when the x-values are fixed by the experimenter. The other is Model II, in which the x-values are free to vary and are subject to error. 2. I have received numerous complaints from biomedical scientists that they have great difficulty in executing Model II linear regression analysis. This may explain the results of a Google Scholar search, which showed that the authors of articles in journals of physiology, pharmacology and biochemistry rarely use Model II regression analysis. 3. I repeat my previous arguments in favour of using least products linear regression analysis for Model II regressions. I review three methods for executing ordinary least products (OLP) and weighted least products (WLP) regression analysis: (i) scientific calculator and/or computer spreadsheet; (ii) specific purpose computer programs; and (iii) general purpose computer programs. 4. Using a scientific calculator and/or computer spreadsheet, it is easy to obtain correct values for OLP slope and intercept, but the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) are inaccurate. 5. Using specific purpose computer programs, the freeware computer program smatr gives the correct OLP regression coefficients and obtains 95% CI by bootstrapping. In addition, smatr can be used to compare the slopes of OLP lines. 6. When using general purpose computer programs, I recommend the commercial programs systat and Statistica for those who regularly undertake linear regression analysis and I give step-by-step instructions in the Supplementary Information as to how to use loss functions. © 2011 The Author. Clinical and Experimental Pharmacology and Physiology. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  6. Computational Tools for Probing Interactions in Multiple Linear Regression, Multilevel Modeling, and Latent Curve Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preacher, Kristopher J.; Curran, Patrick J.; Bauer, Daniel J.

    2006-01-01

    Simple slopes, regions of significance, and confidence bands are commonly used to evaluate interactions in multiple linear regression (MLR) models, and the use of these techniques has recently been extended to multilevel or hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) and latent curve analysis (LCA). However, conducting these tests and plotting the…

  7. Regression analysis of informative current status data with the additive hazards model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shishun; Hu, Tao; Ma, Ling; Wang, Peijie; Sun, Jianguo

    2015-04-01

    This paper discusses regression analysis of current status failure time data arising from the additive hazards model in the presence of informative censoring. Many methods have been developed for regression analysis of current status data under various regression models if the censoring is noninformative, and also there exists a large literature on parametric analysis of informative current status data in the context of tumorgenicity experiments. In this paper, a semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation procedure is presented and in the method, the copula model is employed to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring time. Furthermore, I-splines are used to approximate the nonparametric functions involved and the asymptotic consistency and normality of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study is conducted and indicates that the proposed approach works well for practical situations. An illustrative example is also provided.

  8. Sparse multivariate factor analysis regression models and its applications to integrative genomics analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yan; Wang, Pei; Wang, Xianlong; Zhu, Ji; Song, Peter X-K

    2017-01-01

    The multivariate regression model is a useful tool to explore complex associations between two kinds of molecular markers, which enables the understanding of the biological pathways underlying disease etiology. For a set of correlated response variables, accounting for such dependency can increase statistical power. Motivated by integrative genomic data analyses, we propose a new methodology-sparse multivariate factor analysis regression model (smFARM), in which correlations of response variables are assumed to follow a factor analysis model with latent factors. This proposed method not only allows us to address the challenge that the number of association parameters is larger than the sample size, but also to adjust for unobserved genetic and/or nongenetic factors that potentially conceal the underlying response-predictor associations. The proposed smFARM is implemented by the EM algorithm and the blockwise coordinate descent algorithm. The proposed methodology is evaluated and compared to the existing methods through extensive simulation studies. Our results show that accounting for latent factors through the proposed smFARM can improve sensitivity of signal detection and accuracy of sparse association map estimation. We illustrate smFARM by two integrative genomics analysis examples, a breast cancer dataset, and an ovarian cancer dataset, to assess the relationship between DNA copy numbers and gene expression arrays to understand genetic regulatory patterns relevant to the disease. We identify two trans-hub regions: one in cytoband 17q12 whose amplification influences the RNA expression levels of important breast cancer genes, and the other in cytoband 9q21.32-33, which is associated with chemoresistance in ovarian cancer. © 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  9. Regression analysis understanding and building business and economic models using Excel

    CERN Document Server

    Wilson, J Holton

    2012-01-01

    The technique of regression analysis is used so often in business and economics today that an understanding of its use is necessary for almost everyone engaged in the field. This book will teach you the essential elements of building and understanding regression models in a business/economic context in an intuitive manner. The authors take a non-theoretical treatment that is accessible even if you have a limited statistical background. It is specifically designed to teach the correct use of regression, while advising you of its limitations and teaching about common pitfalls. This book describe

  10. Exploratory regression analysis: a tool for selecting models and determining predictor importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Michael T; Oswald, Frederick L

    2011-06-01

    Linear regression analysis is one of the most important tools in a researcher's toolbox for creating and testing predictive models. Although linear regression analysis indicates how strongly a set of predictor variables, taken together, will predict a relevant criterion (i.e., the multiple R), the analysis cannot indicate which predictors are the most important. Although there is no definitive or unambiguous method for establishing predictor variable importance, there are several accepted methods. This article reviews those methods for establishing predictor importance and provides a program (in Excel) for implementing them (available for direct download at http://dl.dropbox.com/u/2480715/ERA.xlsm?dl=1) . The program investigates all 2(p) - 1 submodels and produces several indices of predictor importance. This exploratory approach to linear regression, similar to other exploratory data analysis techniques, has the potential to yield both theoretical and practical benefits.

  11. Analysis of the Influence of Quantile Regression Model on Mainland Tourists' Service Satisfaction Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen-Cheng; Cho, Wen-Chien; Chen, Yin-Jen

    2014-01-01

    It is estimated that mainland Chinese tourists travelling to Taiwan can bring annual revenues of 400 billion NTD to the Taiwan economy. Thus, how the Taiwanese Government formulates relevant measures to satisfy both sides is the focus of most concern. Taiwan must improve the facilities and service quality of its tourism industry so as to attract more mainland tourists. This paper conducted a questionnaire survey of mainland tourists and used grey relational analysis in grey mathematics to analyze the satisfaction performance of all satisfaction question items. The first eight satisfaction items were used as independent variables, and the overall satisfaction performance was used as a dependent variable for quantile regression model analysis to discuss the relationship between the dependent variable under different quantiles and independent variables. Finally, this study further discussed the predictive accuracy of the least mean regression model and each quantile regression model, as a reference for research personnel. The analysis results showed that other variables could also affect the overall satisfaction performance of mainland tourists, in addition to occupation and age. The overall predictive accuracy of quantile regression model Q0.25 was higher than that of the other three models. PMID:24574916

  12. Analysis of the influence of quantile regression model on mainland tourists' service satisfaction performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen-Cheng; Cho, Wen-Chien; Chen, Yin-Jen

    2014-01-01

    It is estimated that mainland Chinese tourists travelling to Taiwan can bring annual revenues of 400 billion NTD to the Taiwan economy. Thus, how the Taiwanese Government formulates relevant measures to satisfy both sides is the focus of most concern. Taiwan must improve the facilities and service quality of its tourism industry so as to attract more mainland tourists. This paper conducted a questionnaire survey of mainland tourists and used grey relational analysis in grey mathematics to analyze the satisfaction performance of all satisfaction question items. The first eight satisfaction items were used as independent variables, and the overall satisfaction performance was used as a dependent variable for quantile regression model analysis to discuss the relationship between the dependent variable under different quantiles and independent variables. Finally, this study further discussed the predictive accuracy of the least mean regression model and each quantile regression model, as a reference for research personnel. The analysis results showed that other variables could also affect the overall satisfaction performance of mainland tourists, in addition to occupation and age. The overall predictive accuracy of quantile regression model Q0.25 was higher than that of the other three models.

  13. Analysis of the Influence of Quantile Regression Model on Mainland Tourists’ Service Satisfaction Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Cheng Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is estimated that mainland Chinese tourists travelling to Taiwan can bring annual revenues of 400 billion NTD to the Taiwan economy. Thus, how the Taiwanese Government formulates relevant measures to satisfy both sides is the focus of most concern. Taiwan must improve the facilities and service quality of its tourism industry so as to attract more mainland tourists. This paper conducted a questionnaire survey of mainland tourists and used grey relational analysis in grey mathematics to analyze the satisfaction performance of all satisfaction question items. The first eight satisfaction items were used as independent variables, and the overall satisfaction performance was used as a dependent variable for quantile regression model analysis to discuss the relationship between the dependent variable under different quantiles and independent variables. Finally, this study further discussed the predictive accuracy of the least mean regression model and each quantile regression model, as a reference for research personnel. The analysis results showed that other variables could also affect the overall satisfaction performance of mainland tourists, in addition to occupation and age. The overall predictive accuracy of quantile regression model Q0.25 was higher than that of the other three models.

  14. Bayesian logistic regression analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

  15. Replica analysis of overfitting in regression models for time-to-event data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coolen, A. C. C.; Barrett, J. E.; Paga, P.; Perez-Vicente, C. J.

    2017-09-01

    Overfitting, which happens when the number of parameters in a model is too large compared to the number of data points available for determining these parameters, is a serious and growing problem in survival analysis. While modern medicine presents us with data of unprecedented dimensionality, these data cannot yet be used effectively for clinical outcome prediction. Standard error measures in maximum likelihood regression, such as p-values and z-scores, are blind to overfitting, and even for Cox’s proportional hazards model (the main tool of medical statisticians), one finds in literature only rules of thumb on the number of samples required to avoid overfitting. In this paper we present a mathematical theory of overfitting in regression models for time-to-event data, which aims to increase our quantitative understanding of the problem and provide practical tools with which to correct regression outcomes for the impact of overfitting. It is based on the replica method, a statistical mechanical technique for the analysis of heterogeneous many-variable systems that has been used successfully for several decades in physics, biology, and computer science, but not yet in medical statistics. We develop the theory initially for arbitrary regression models for time-to-event data, and verify its predictions in detail for the popular Cox model.

  16. Forecasting Model for IPTV Service in Korea Using Bootstrap Ridge Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Byoung Chul; Kee, Seho; Kim, Jae Bum; Kim, Yun Bae

    The telecom firms in Korea are taking new step to prepare for the next generation of convergence services, IPTV. In this paper we described our analysis on the effective method for demand forecasting about IPTV broadcasting. We have tried according to 3 types of scenarios based on some aspects of IPTV potential market and made a comparison among the results. The forecasting method used in this paper is the multi generation substitution model with bootstrap ridge regression analysis.

  17. Predictive model of Amorphophallus muelleri growth in some agroforestry in East Java by multiple regression analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BUDIMAN

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Budiman, Arisoesilaningsih E. 2012. Predictive model of Amorphophallus muelleri growth in some agroforestry in East Java by multiple regression analysis. Biodiversitas 13: 18-22. The aims of this research was to determine the multiple regression models of vegetative and corm growth of Amorphophallus muelleri Blume in some age variations and habitat conditions of agroforestry in East Java. Descriptive exploratory research method was conducted by systematic random sampling at five agroforestries on four plantations in East Java: Saradan, Bojonegoro, Nganjuk and Blitar. In each agroforestry, we observed A. muelleri vegetative and corm growth on four growing age (1, 2, 3 and 4 years old respectively as well as environmental variables such as altitude, vegetation, climate and soil conditions. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics to compare A. muelleri habitat in five agroforestries. Meanwhile, the influence and contribution of each environmental variable to the growth of A. muelleri vegetative and corm were determined using multiple regression analysis of SPSS 17.0. The multiple regression models of A. muelleri vegetative and corm growth were generated based on some characteristics of agroforestries and age showed high validity with R2 = 88-99%. Regression model showed that age, monthly temperatures, percentage of radiation and soil calcium (Ca content either simultaneously or partially determined the growth of A. muelleri vegetative and corm. Based on these models, the A. muelleri corm reached the optimal growth after four years of cultivation and they will be ready to be harvested. Additionally, the soil Ca content should reach 25.3 me.hg-1 as Sugihwaras agroforestry, with the maximal radiation of 60%.

  18. Mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties and damage cost through regression analysis using matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urrutia, J D; Bautista, L A; Baccay, E B

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties such as death, number of injured persons, affected families and total cost of damage. To quantify the direct damages from earthquakes to human beings and properties given the magnitude, intensity, depth of focus, location of epicentre and time duration, the regression models were made. The researchers formulated models through regression analysis using matrices and used α = 0.01. The study considered thirty destructive earthquakes that hit the Philippines from the inclusive years 1968 to 2012. Relevant data about these said earthquakes were obtained from Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. Data on damages and casualties were gathered from the records of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. This study will be of great value in emergency planning, initiating and updating programs for earthquake hazard reduction in the Philippines, which is an earthquake-prone country.

  19. Estimating leaf photosynthetic pigments information by stepwise multiple linear regression analysis and a leaf optical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pudong; Shi, Runhe; Wang, Hong; Bai, Kaixu; Gao, Wei

    2014-10-01

    Leaf pigments are key elements for plant photosynthesis and growth. Traditional manual sampling of these pigments is labor-intensive and costly, which also has the difficulty in capturing their temporal and spatial characteristics. The aim of this work is to estimate photosynthetic pigments at large scale by remote sensing. For this purpose, inverse model were proposed with the aid of stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) analysis. Furthermore, a leaf radiative transfer model (i.e. PROSPECT model) was employed to simulate the leaf reflectance where wavelength varies from 400 to 780 nm at 1 nm interval, and then these values were treated as the data from remote sensing observations. Meanwhile, simulated chlorophyll concentration (Cab), carotenoid concentration (Car) and their ratio (Cab/Car) were taken as target to build the regression model respectively. In this study, a total of 4000 samples were simulated via PROSPECT with different Cab, Car and leaf mesophyll structures as 70% of these samples were applied for training while the last 30% for model validation. Reflectance (r) and its mathematic transformations (1/r and log (1/r)) were all employed to build regression model respectively. Results showed fair agreements between pigments and simulated reflectance with all adjusted coefficients of determination (R2) larger than 0.8 as 6 wavebands were selected to build the SMLR model. The largest value of R2 for Cab, Car and Cab/Car are 0.8845, 0.876 and 0.8765, respectively. Meanwhile, mathematic transformations of reflectance showed little influence on regression accuracy. We concluded that it was feasible to estimate the chlorophyll and carotenoids and their ratio based on statistical model with leaf reflectance data.

  20. Weighted functional linear regression models for gene-based association analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belonogova, Nadezhda M; Svishcheva, Gulnara R; Wilson, James F; Campbell, Harry; Axenovich, Tatiana I

    2018-01-01

    Functional linear regression models are effectively used in gene-based association analysis of complex traits. These models combine information about individual genetic variants, taking into account their positions and reducing the influence of noise and/or observation errors. To increase the power of methods, where several differently informative components are combined, weights are introduced to give the advantage to more informative components. Allele-specific weights have been introduced to collapsing and kernel-based approaches to gene-based association analysis. Here we have for the first time introduced weights to functional linear regression models adapted for both independent and family samples. Using data simulated on the basis of GAW17 genotypes and weights defined by allele frequencies via the beta distribution, we demonstrated that type I errors correspond to declared values and that increasing the weights of causal variants allows the power of functional linear models to be increased. We applied the new method to real data on blood pressure from the ORCADES sample. Five of the six known genes with P models. Moreover, we found an association between diastolic blood pressure and the VMP1 gene (P = 8.18×10-6), when we used a weighted functional model. For this gene, the unweighted functional and weighted kernel-based models had P = 0.004 and 0.006, respectively. The new method has been implemented in the program package FREGAT, which is freely available at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/FREGAT/index.html.

  1. Polynomial regression analysis and significance test of the regression function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Zhengming; Zhao Juan; He Shengping

    2012-01-01

    In order to analyze the decay heating power of a certain radioactive isotope per kilogram with polynomial regression method, the paper firstly demonstrated the broad usage of polynomial function and deduced its parameters with ordinary least squares estimate. Then significance test method of polynomial regression function is derived considering the similarity between the polynomial regression model and the multivariable linear regression model. Finally, polynomial regression analysis and significance test of the polynomial function are done to the decay heating power of the iso tope per kilogram in accord with the authors' real work. (authors)

  2. Nonparametric Mixture of Regression Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Mian; Li, Runze; Wang, Shaoli

    2013-07-01

    Motivated by an analysis of US house price index data, we propose nonparametric finite mixture of regression models. We study the identifiability issue of the proposed models, and develop an estimation procedure by employing kernel regression. We further systematically study the sampling properties of the proposed estimators, and establish their asymptotic normality. A modified EM algorithm is proposed to carry out the estimation procedure. We show that our algorithm preserves the ascent property of the EM algorithm in an asymptotic sense. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure. An empirical analysis of the US house price index data is illustrated for the proposed methodology.

  3. Financial analysis and forecasting of the results of small businesses performance based on regression model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana O. Musienko

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective to develop the economicmathematical model of the dependence of revenue on other balance sheet items taking into account the sectoral affiliation of the companies. Methods using comparative analysis the article studies the existing approaches to the construction of the company management models. Applying the regression analysis and the least squares method which is widely used for financial management of enterprises in Russia and abroad the author builds a model of the dependence of revenue on other balance sheet items taking into account the sectoral affiliation of the companies which can be used in the financial analysis and prediction of small enterprisesrsquo performance. Results the article states the need to identify factors affecting the financial management efficiency. The author analyzed scientific research and revealed the lack of comprehensive studies on the methodology for assessing the small enterprisesrsquo management while the methods used for large companies are not always suitable for the task. The systematized approaches of various authors to the formation of regression models describe the influence of certain factors on the company activity. It is revealed that the resulting indicators in the studies were revenue profit or the company relative profitability. The main drawback of most models is the mathematical not economic approach to the definition of the dependent and independent variables. Basing on the analysis it was determined that the most correct is the model of dependence between revenues and total assets of the company using the decimal logarithm. The model was built using data on the activities of the 507 small businesses operating in three spheres of economic activity. Using the presented model it was proved that there is direct dependence between the sales proceeds and the main items of the asset balance as well as differences in the degree of this effect depending on the economic activity of small

  4. Oil and gas pipeline construction cost analysis and developing regression models for cost estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaduri, Ravi Kiran

    In this study, cost data for 180 pipelines and 136 compressor stations have been analyzed. On the basis of the distribution analysis, regression models have been developed. Material, Labor, ROW and miscellaneous costs make up the total cost of a pipeline construction. The pipelines are analyzed based on different pipeline lengths, diameter, location, pipeline volume and year of completion. In a pipeline construction, labor costs dominate the total costs with a share of about 40%. Multiple non-linear regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of pipelines for various cross-sectional areas, lengths and locations. The Compressor stations are analyzed based on the capacity, year of completion and location. Unlike the pipeline costs, material costs dominate the total costs in the construction of compressor station, with an average share of about 50.6%. Land costs have very little influence on the total costs. Similar regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of compressor station for various capacities and locations.

  5. A classical regression framework for mediation analysis: fitting one model to estimate mediation effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, Christina T; Blume, Jeffrey D

    2017-10-26

    Mediation analysis explores the degree to which an exposure's effect on an outcome is diverted through a mediating variable. We describe a classical regression framework for conducting mediation analyses in which estimates of causal mediation effects and their variance are obtained from the fit of a single regression model. The vector of changes in exposure pathway coefficients, which we named the essential mediation components (EMCs), is used to estimate standard causal mediation effects. Because these effects are often simple functions of the EMCs, an analytical expression for their model-based variance follows directly. Given this formula, it is instructive to revisit the performance of routinely used variance approximations (e.g., delta method and resampling methods). Requiring the fit of only one model reduces the computation time required for complex mediation analyses and permits the use of a rich suite of regression tools that are not easily implemented on a system of three equations, as would be required in the Baron-Kenny framework. Using data from the BRAIN-ICU study, we provide examples to illustrate the advantages of this framework and compare it with the existing approaches. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  6. Understanding logistic regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Sperandei, Sandro

    2014-01-01

    Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using ex...

  7. Regression Models for Repairable Systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novák, Petr

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 4 (2015), s. 963-972 ISSN 1387-5841 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Reliability analysis * Repair models * Regression Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.782, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/SI/novak-0450902.pdf

  8. Comparison of Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Autonomic Dysfunction Using Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Fangfang; Li, Zhongtao; Yu, Xiaoling; Zhou, Linuo

    2013-01-01

    Background This study aimed to develop the artificial neural network (ANN) and multivariable logistic regression (LR) analyses for prediction modeling of cardiovascular autonomic (CA) dysfunction in the general population, and compare the prediction models using the two approaches. Methods and Materials We analyzed a previous dataset based on a Chinese population sample consisting of 2,092 individuals aged 30–80 years. The prediction models were derived from an exploratory set using ANN and LR analysis, and were tested in the validation set. Performances of these prediction models were then compared. Results Univariate analysis indicated that 14 risk factors showed statistically significant association with the prevalence of CA dysfunction (P<0.05). The mean area under the receiver-operating curve was 0.758 (95% CI 0.724–0.793) for LR and 0.762 (95% CI 0.732–0.793) for ANN analysis, but noninferiority result was found (P<0.001). The similar results were found in comparisons of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values in the prediction models between the LR and ANN analyses. Conclusion The prediction models for CA dysfunction were developed using ANN and LR. ANN and LR are two effective tools for developing prediction models based on our dataset. PMID:23940593

  9. Using the classical linear regression model in analysis of the dependences of conveyor belt life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam Andrejiová

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the classical linear regression model of the dependence of conveyor belt life on some selected parameters: thickness of paint layer, width and length of the belt, conveyor speed and quantity of transported material. The first part of the article is about regression model design, point and interval estimation of parameters, verification of statistical significance of the model, and about the parameters of the proposed regression model. The second part of the article deals with identification of influential and extreme values that can have an impact on estimation of regression model parameters. The third part focuses on assumptions of the classical regression model, i.e. on verification of independence assumptions, normality and homoscedasticity of residuals.

  10. Modelling and analysis of turbulent datasets using Auto Regressive Moving Average processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faranda, Davide; Dubrulle, Bérengère; Daviaud, François; Pons, Flavio Maria Emanuele; Saint-Michel, Brice; Herbert, Éric; Cortet, Pierre-Philippe

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a novel way to extract information from turbulent datasets by applying an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) statistical analysis. Such analysis goes well beyond the analysis of the mean flow and of the fluctuations and links the behavior of the recorded time series to a discrete version of a stochastic differential equation which is able to describe the correlation structure in the dataset. We introduce a new index Υ that measures the difference between the resulting analysis and the Obukhov model of turbulence, the simplest stochastic model reproducing both Richardson law and the Kolmogorov spectrum. We test the method on datasets measured in a von Kármán swirling flow experiment. We found that the ARMA analysis is well correlated with spatial structures of the flow, and can discriminate between two different flows with comparable mean velocities, obtained by changing the forcing. Moreover, we show that the Υ is highest in regions where shear layer vortices are present, thereby establishing a link between deviations from the Kolmogorov model and coherent structures. These deviations are consistent with the ones observed by computing the Hurst exponents for the same time series. We show that some salient features of the analysis are preserved when considering global instead of local observables. Finally, we analyze flow configurations with multistability features where the ARMA technique is efficient in discriminating different stability branches of the system

  11. Regression analysis of mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data with additive rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Liang; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L

    2015-03-01

    Event-history studies of recurrent events are often conducted in fields such as demography, epidemiology, medicine, and social sciences (Cook and Lawless, 2007, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events. New York: Springer-Verlag; Zhao et al., 2011, Test 20, 1-42). For such analysis, two types of data have been extensively investigated: recurrent-event data and panel-count data. However, in practice, one may face a third type of data, mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data or mixed event-history data. Such data occur if some study subjects are monitored or observed continuously and thus provide recurrent-event data, while the others are observed only at discrete times and hence give only panel-count data. A more general situation is that each subject is observed continuously over certain time periods but only at discrete times over other time periods. There exists little literature on the analysis of such mixed data except that published by Zhu et al. (2013, Statistics in Medicine 32, 1954-1963). In this article, we consider the regression analysis of mixed data using the additive rate model and develop some estimating equation-based approaches to estimate the regression parameters of interest. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established, and the numerical studies suggest that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations. The approach is applied to a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study that motivated this study. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  12. Genetic analysis of partial egg production records in Japanese quail using random regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou Khadiga, G; Mahmoud, B Y F; Farahat, G S; Emam, A M; El-Full, E A

    2017-08-01

    The main objectives of this study were to detect the most appropriate random regression model (RRM) to fit the data of monthly egg production in 2 lines (selected and control) of Japanese quail and to test the consistency of different criteria of model choice. Data from 1,200 female Japanese quails for the first 5 months of egg production from 4 consecutive generations of an egg line selected for egg production in the first month (EP1) was analyzed. Eight RRMs with different orders of Legendre polynomials were compared to determine the proper model for analysis. All criteria of model choice suggested that the adequate model included the second-order Legendre polynomials for fixed effects, and the third-order for additive genetic effects and permanent environmental effects. Predictive ability of the best model was the highest among all models (ρ = 0.987). According to the best model fitted to the data, estimates of heritability were relatively low to moderate (0.10 to 0.17) showed a descending pattern from the first to the fifth month of production. A similar pattern was observed for permanent environmental effects with greater estimates in the first (0.36) and second (0.23) months of production than heritability estimates. Genetic correlations between separate production periods were higher (0.18 to 0.93) than their phenotypic counterparts (0.15 to 0.87). The superiority of the selected line over the control was observed through significant (P egg production in earlier ages (first and second months) than later ones. A methodology based on random regression animal models can be recommended for genetic evaluation of egg production in Japanese quail. © 2017 Poultry Science Association Inc.

  13. Understanding logistic regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperandei, Sandro

    2014-01-01

    Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using examples to make it as simple as possible. After definition of the technique, the basic interpretation of the results is highlighted and then some special issues are discussed.

  14. Spatial Bayesian latent factor regression modeling of coordinate-based meta-analysis data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Johnson, Timothy D; Nichols, Thomas E

    2018-03-01

    Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the article are available for Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to (i) identify areas of consistent activation; and (ii) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously address these aims, we propose a Bayesian point process hierarchical model for CBMA. We model the foci from each study as a doubly stochastic Poisson process, where the study-specific log intensity function is characterized as a linear combination of a high-dimensional basis set. A sparse representation of the intensities is guaranteed through latent factor modeling of the basis coefficients. Within our framework, it is also possible to account for the effect of study-level covariates (meta-regression), significantly expanding the capabilities of the current neuroimaging meta-analysis methods available. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and neuroimaging meta-analysis datasets. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  15. Spatial Bayesian Latent Factor Regression Modeling of Coordinate-based Meta-analysis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Johnson, Timothy D.; Nichols, Thomas E.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the paper are available for Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to 1) identify areas of consistent activation; and 2) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously address these aims, we propose a Bayesian point process hierarchical model for CBMA. We model the foci from each study as a doubly stochastic Poisson process, where the study-specific log intensity function is characterised as a linear combination of a high-dimensional basis set. A sparse representation of the intensities is guaranteed through latent factor modeling of the basis coefficients. Within our framework, it is also possible to account for the effect of study-level covariates (meta-regression), significantly expanding the capabilities of the current neuroimaging meta-analysis methods available. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and neuroimaging meta-analysis datasets. PMID:28498564

  16. Analysis of dental caries using generalized linear and count regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javali M. Phil

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Generalized linear models (GLM are generalization of linear regression models, which allow fitting regression models to response data in all the sciences especially medical and dental sciences that follow a general exponential family. These are flexible and widely used class of such models that can accommodate response variables. Count data are frequently characterized by overdispersion and excess zeros. Zero-inflated count models provide a parsimonious yet powerful way to model this type of situation. Such models assume that the data are a mixture of two separate data generation processes: one generates only zeros, and the other is either a Poisson or a negative binomial data-generating process. Zero inflated count regression models such as the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP, zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB regression models have been used to handle dental caries count data with many zeros. We present an evaluation framework to the suitability of applying the GLM, Poisson, NB, ZIP and ZINB to dental caries data set where the count data may exhibit evidence of many zeros and over-dispersion. Estimation of the model parameters using the method of maximum likelihood is provided. Based on the Vuong test statistic and the goodness of fit measure for dental caries data, the NB and ZINB regression models perform better than other count regression models.

  17. Exergy Analysis of a Subcritical Reheat Steam Power Plant with Regression Modeling and Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MUHIB ALI RAJPER

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, exergy analysis of a 210 MW SPP (Steam Power Plant is performed. Firstly, the plant is modeled and validated, followed by a parametric study to show the effects of various operating parameters on the performance parameters. The net power output, energy efficiency, and exergy efficiency are taken as the performance parameters, while the condenser pressure, main steam pressure, bled steam pressures, main steam temperature, and reheat steam temperature isnominated as the operating parameters. Moreover, multiple polynomial regression models are developed to correlate each performance parameter with the operating parameters. The performance is then optimizedby using Direct-searchmethod. According to the results, the net power output, energy efficiency, and exergy efficiency are calculated as 186.5 MW, 31.37 and 30.41%, respectively under normal operating conditions as a base case. The condenser is a major contributor towards the energy loss, followed by the boiler, whereas the highest irreversibilities occur in the boiler and turbine. According to the parametric study, variation in the operating parameters greatly influences the performance parameters. The regression models have appeared to be a good estimator of the performance parameters. The optimum net power output, energy efficiency and exergy efficiency are obtained as 227.6 MW, 37.4 and 36.4, respectively, which have been calculated along with optimal values of selected operating parameters.

  18. A New Global Regression Analysis Method for the Prediction of Wind Tunnel Model Weight Corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred; Bridge, Thomas M.; Amaya, Max A.

    2014-01-01

    A new global regression analysis method is discussed that predicts wind tunnel model weight corrections for strain-gage balance loads during a wind tunnel test. The method determines corrections by combining "wind-on" model attitude measurements with least squares estimates of the model weight and center of gravity coordinates that are obtained from "wind-off" data points. The method treats the least squares fit of the model weight separate from the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Therefore, it performs two fits of "wind- off" data points and uses the least squares estimator of the model weight as an input for the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Explicit equations for the least squares estimators of the weight and center of gravity coordinates are derived that simplify the implementation of the method in the data system software of a wind tunnel. In addition, recommendations for sets of "wind-off" data points are made that take typical model support system constraints into account. Explicit equations of the confidence intervals on the model weight and center of gravity coordinates and two different error analyses of the model weight prediction are also discussed in the appendices of the paper.

  19. Multivariate Regression Analysis and Slaughter Livestock,

    Science.gov (United States)

    AGRICULTURE, *ECONOMICS), (*MEAT, PRODUCTION), MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS , ANIMALS, WEIGHT, COSTS, PREDICTIONS, STABILITY, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, STORAGE, BEEF, PORK, FOOD, STATISTICAL DATA, ACCURACY

  20. ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES OF THE FIRM, BY USING THE MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Anghelache

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The information achieved through the use of simple linear regression are not always enough to characterize the evolution of an economic phenomenon and, furthermore, to identify its possible future evolution. To remedy these drawbacks, the special literature includes multiple regression models, in which the evolution of the dependant variable is defined depending on two or more factorial variables.

  1. Standardizing effect size from linear regression models with log-transformed variables for meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Barranco, Miguel; Tobías, Aurelio; Redondo, Daniel; Molina-Portillo, Elena; Sánchez, María José

    2017-03-17

    Meta-analysis is very useful to summarize the effect of a treatment or a risk factor for a given disease. Often studies report results based on log-transformed variables in order to achieve the principal assumptions of a linear regression model. If this is the case for some, but not all studies, the effects need to be homogenized. We derived a set of formulae to transform absolute changes into relative ones, and vice versa, to allow including all results in a meta-analysis. We applied our procedure to all possible combinations of log-transformed independent or dependent variables. We also evaluated it in a simulation based on two variables either normally or asymmetrically distributed. In all the scenarios, and based on different change criteria, the effect size estimated by the derived set of formulae was equivalent to the real effect size. To avoid biased estimates of the effect, this procedure should be used with caution in the case of independent variables with asymmetric distributions that significantly differ from the normal distribution. We illustrate an application of this procedure by an application to a meta-analysis on the potential effects on neurodevelopment in children exposed to arsenic and manganese. The procedure proposed has been shown to be valid and capable of expressing the effect size of a linear regression model based on different change criteria in the variables. Homogenizing the results from different studies beforehand allows them to be combined in a meta-analysis, independently of whether the transformations had been performed on the dependent and/or independent variables.

  2. Thermodynamic Analysis of Simple Gas Turbine Cycle with Multiple Regression Modelling and Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Ghafoor Memon

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, thermodynamic and statistical analyses were performed on a gas turbine system, to assess the impact of some important operating parameters like CIT (Compressor Inlet Temperature, PR (Pressure Ratio and TIT (Turbine Inlet Temperature on its performance characteristics such as net power output, energy efficiency, exergy efficiency and fuel consumption. Each performance characteristic was enunciated as a function of operating parameters, followed by a parametric study and optimization. The results showed that the performance characteristics increase with an increase in the TIT and a decrease in the CIT, except fuel consumption which behaves oppositely. The net power output and efficiencies increase with the PR up to certain initial values and then start to decrease, whereas the fuel consumption always decreases with an increase in the PR. The results of exergy analysis showed the combustion chamber as a major contributor to the exergy destruction, followed by stack gas. Subsequently, multiple regression models were developed to correlate each of the response variables (performance characteristic with the predictor variables (operating parameters. The regression model equations showed a significant statistical relationship between the predictor and response variables.

  3. Multiple linear regression analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, T. R.

    1980-01-01

    Program rapidly selects best-suited set of coefficients. User supplies only vectors of independent and dependent data and specifies confidence level required. Program uses stepwise statistical procedure for relating minimal set of variables to set of observations; final regression contains only most statistically significant coefficients. Program is written in FORTRAN IV for batch execution and has been implemented on NOVA 1200.

  4. [Bibliometrics and visualization analysis of land use regression models in ambient air pollution research].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y J; Zhou, D H; Bai, Z P; Xue, F X

    2018-02-10

    Objective: To quantitatively analyze the current status and development trends regarding the land use regression (LUR) models on ambient air pollution studies. Methods: Relevant literature from the PubMed database before June 30, 2017 was analyzed, using the Bibliographic Items Co-occurrence Matrix Builder (BICOMB 2.0). Keywords co-occurrence networks, cluster mapping and timeline mapping were generated, using the CiteSpace 5.1.R5 software. Relevant literature identified in three Chinese databases was also reviewed. Results: Four hundred sixty four relevant papers were retrieved from the PubMed database. The number of papers published showed an annual increase, in line with the growing trend of the index. Most papers were published in the journal of Environmental Health Perspectives . Results from the Co-word cluster analysis identified five clusters: cluster#0 consisted of birth cohort studies related to the health effects of prenatal exposure to air pollution; cluster#1 referred to land use regression modeling and exposure assessment; cluster#2 was related to the epidemiology on traffic exposure; cluster#3 dealt with the exposure to ultrafine particles and related health effects; cluster#4 described the exposure to black carbon and related health effects. Data from Timeline mapping indicated that cluster#0 and#1 were the main research areas while cluster#3 and#4 were the up-coming hot areas of research. Ninety four relevant papers were retrieved from the Chinese databases with most of them related to studies on modeling. Conclusion: In order to better assess the health-related risks of ambient air pollution, and to best inform preventative public health intervention policies, application of LUR models to environmental epidemiology studies in China should be encouraged.

  5. Performance Prediction Modelling for Flexible Pavement on Low Volume Roads Using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Makendran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction models for low volume village roads in India are developed to evaluate the progression of different types of distress such as roughness, cracking, and potholes. Even though the Government of India is investing huge quantum of money on road construction every year, poor control over the quality of road construction and its subsequent maintenance is leading to the faster road deterioration. In this regard, it is essential that scientific maintenance procedures are to be evolved on the basis of performance of low volume flexible pavements. Considering the above, an attempt has been made in this research endeavor to develop prediction models to understand the progression of roughness, cracking, and potholes in flexible pavements exposed to least or nil routine maintenance. Distress data were collected from the low volume rural roads covering about 173 stretches spread across Tamil Nadu state in India. Based on the above collected data, distress prediction models have been developed using multiple linear regression analysis. Further, the models have been validated using independent field data. It can be concluded that the models developed in this study can serve as useful tools for the practicing engineers maintaining flexible pavements on low volume roads.

  6. Logistic regression models

    CERN Document Server

    Hilbe, Joseph M

    2009-01-01

    This book really does cover everything you ever wanted to know about logistic regression … with updates available on the author's website. Hilbe, a former national athletics champion, philosopher, and expert in astronomy, is a master at explaining statistical concepts and methods. Readers familiar with his other expository work will know what to expect-great clarity.The book provides considerable detail about all facets of logistic regression. No step of an argument is omitted so that the book will meet the needs of the reader who likes to see everything spelt out, while a person familiar with some of the topics has the option to skip "obvious" sections. The material has been thoroughly road-tested through classroom and web-based teaching. … The focus is on helping the reader to learn and understand logistic regression. The audience is not just students meeting the topic for the first time, but also experienced users. I believe the book really does meet the author's goal … .-Annette J. Dobson, Biometric...

  7. A Seemingly Unrelated Poisson Regression Model

    OpenAIRE

    King, Gary

    1989-01-01

    This article introduces a new estimator for the analysis of two contemporaneously correlated endogenous event count variables. This seemingly unrelated Poisson regression model (SUPREME) estimator combines the efficiencies created by single equation Poisson regression model estimators and insights from "seemingly unrelated" linear regression models.

  8. Robust Methods for Moderation Analysis with a Two-Level Regression Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Miao; Yuan, Ke-Hai

    2016-01-01

    Moderation analysis has many applications in social sciences. Most widely used estimation methods for moderation analysis assume that errors are normally distributed and homoscedastic. When these assumptions are not met, the results from a classical moderation analysis can be misleading. For more reliable moderation analysis, this article proposes two robust methods with a two-level regression model when the predictors do not contain measurement error. One method is based on maximum likelihood with Student's t distribution and the other is based on M-estimators with Huber-type weights. An algorithm for obtaining the robust estimators is developed. Consistent estimates of standard errors of the robust estimators are provided. The robust approaches are compared against normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) with respect to power and accuracy of parameter estimates through a simulation study. Results show that the robust approaches outperform NML under various distributional conditions. Application of the robust methods is illustrated through a real data example. An R program is developed and documented to facilitate the application of the robust methods.

  9. An Econometric Analysis of Modulated Realised Covariance, Regression and Correlation in Noisy Diffusion Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kinnebrock, Silja; Podolskij, Mark

    This paper introduces a new estimator to measure the ex-post covariation between high-frequency financial time series under market microstructure noise. We provide an asymptotic limit theory (including feasible central limit theorems) for standard methods such as regression, correlation analysis...... process can be relaxed and how our method can be applied to non-synchronous observations. We also present an empirical study of how high-frequency correlations, regressions and covariances change through time....

  10. Demand analysis of flood insurance by using logistic regression model and genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidi, P.; Mamat, M. B.; Sukono; Supian, S.; Putra, A. S.

    2018-03-01

    Citarum River floods in the area of South Bandung Indonesia, often resulting damage to some buildings belonging to the people living in the vicinity. One effort to alleviate the risk of building damage is to have flood insurance. The main obstacle is not all people in the Citarum basin decide to buy flood insurance. In this paper, we intend to analyse the decision to buy flood insurance. It is assumed that there are eight variables that influence the decision of purchasing flood assurance, include: income level, education level, house distance with river, building election with road, flood frequency experience, flood prediction, perception on insurance company, and perception towards government effort in handling flood. The analysis was done by using logistic regression model, and to estimate model parameters, it is done with genetic algorithm. The results of the analysis shows that eight variables analysed significantly influence the demand of flood insurance. These results are expected to be considered for insurance companies, to influence the decision of the community to be willing to buy flood insurance.

  11. Polylinear regression analysis in radiochemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopyrin, A.A.; Terent'eva, T.N.; Khramov, N.N.

    1995-01-01

    A number of radiochemical problems have been formulated in the framework of polylinear regression analysis, which permits the use of conventional mathematical methods for their solution. The authors have considered features of the use of polylinear regression analysis for estimating the contributions of various sources to the atmospheric pollution, for studying irradiated nuclear fuel, for estimating concentrations from spectral data, for measuring neutron fields of a nuclear reactor, for estimating crystal lattice parameters from X-ray diffraction patterns, for interpreting data of X-ray fluorescence analysis, for estimating complex formation constants, and for analyzing results of radiometric measurements. The problem of estimating the target parameters can be incorrect at certain properties of the system under study. The authors showed the possibility of regularization by adding a fictitious set of data open-quotes obtainedclose quotes from the orthogonal design. To estimate only a part of the parameters under consideration, the authors used incomplete rank models. In this case, it is necessary to take into account the possibility of confounding estimates. An algorithm for evaluating the degree of confounding is presented which is realized using standard software or regression analysis

  12. On pseudo-values for regression analysis in competing risks models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graw, F; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Schumacher, M

    2009-01-01

    For regression on state and transition probabilities in multi-state models Andersen et al. (Biometrika 90:15-27, 2003) propose a technique based on jackknife pseudo-values. In this article we analyze the pseudo-values suggested for competing risks models and prove some conjectures regarding their...

  13. Model selection for marginal regression analysis of longitudinal data with missing observations and covariate measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chung-Wei; Chen, Yi-Hau

    2015-10-01

    Missing observations and covariate measurement error commonly arise in longitudinal data. However, existing methods for model selection in marginal regression analysis of longitudinal data fail to address the potential bias resulting from these issues. To tackle this problem, we propose a new model selection criterion, the Generalized Longitudinal Information Criterion, which is based on an approximately unbiased estimator for the expected quadratic error of a considered marginal model accounting for both data missingness and covariate measurement error. The simulation results reveal that the proposed method performs quite well in the presence of missing data and covariate measurement error. On the contrary, the naive procedures without taking care of such complexity in data may perform quite poorly. The proposed method is applied to data from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging to assess the relationship of depression with health and social status in the elderly, accommodating measurement error in the covariate as well as missing observations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabatsos, George

    2017-02-01

    Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected

  15. Gaussian process regression analysis for functional data

    CERN Document Server

    Shi, Jian Qing

    2011-01-01

    Gaussian Process Regression Analysis for Functional Data presents nonparametric statistical methods for functional regression analysis, specifically the methods based on a Gaussian process prior in a functional space. The authors focus on problems involving functional response variables and mixed covariates of functional and scalar variables.Covering the basics of Gaussian process regression, the first several chapters discuss functional data analysis, theoretical aspects based on the asymptotic properties of Gaussian process regression models, and new methodological developments for high dime

  16. (Non) linear regression modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cizek, P.; Gentle, J.E.; Hardle, W.K.; Mori, Y.

    2012-01-01

    We will study causal relationships of a known form between random variables. Given a model, we distinguish one or more dependent (endogenous) variables Y = (Y1,…,Yl), l ∈ N, which are explained by a model, and independent (exogenous, explanatory) variables X = (X1,…,Xp),p ∈ N, which explain or

  17. Analysis of Multivariate Experimental Data Using A Simplified Regression Model Search Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred

    2013-01-01

    A new regression model search algorithm was developed in 2011 that may be used to analyze both general multivariate experimental data sets and wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The new algorithm is a simplified version of a more complex search algorithm that was originally developed at the NASA Ames Balance Calibration Laboratory. The new algorithm has the advantage that it needs only about one tenth of the original algorithm's CPU time for the completion of a search. In addition, extensive testing showed that the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the simplified algorithm is similar to the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the original algorithm. The simplified algorithm, however, cannot guarantee that search constraints related to a set of statistical quality requirements are always satisfied in the optimized regression models. Therefore, the simplified search algorithm is not intended to replace the original search algorithm. Instead, it may be used to generate an alternate optimized regression model of experimental data whenever the application of the original search algorithm either fails or requires too much CPU time. Data from a machine calibration of NASA's MK40 force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new regression model search algorithm.

  18. Multiple regression analysis in modelling of carbon dioxide emissions by energy consumption use in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keat, Sim Chong; Chun, Beh Boon; San, Lim Hwee; Jafri, Mohd Zubir Mat

    2015-04-01

    Climate change due to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is one of the most complex challenges threatening our planet. This issue considered as a great and international concern that primary attributed from different fossil fuels. In this paper, regression model is used for analyzing the causal relationship among CO2 emissions based on the energy consumption in Malaysia using time series data for the period of 1980-2010. The equations were developed using regression model based on the eight major sources that contribute to the CO2 emissions such as non energy, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), diesel, kerosene, refinery gas, Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) and Aviation Gasoline (AV Gas), fuel oil and motor petrol. The related data partly used for predict the regression model (1980-2000) and partly used for validate the regression model (2001-2010). The results of the prediction model with the measured data showed a high correlation coefficient (R2=0.9544), indicating the model's accuracy and efficiency. These results are accurate and can be used in early warning of the population to comply with air quality standards.

  19. A random regression model in analysis of litter size in pigs | Lukovi& ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dispersion parameters for number of piglets born alive (NBA) were estimated using a random regression model (RRM). Two data sets of litter records from the Nemščak farm in Slovenia were used for analyses. The first dataset (DS1) included records from the first to the sixth parity. The second dataset (DS2) was extended ...

  20. Temporal Synchronization Analysis for Improving Regression Modeling of Fecal Indicator Bacteria Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Multiple linear regression models are often used to predict levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in recreational swimming waters based on independent variables (IVs) such as meteorologic, hydrodynamic, and water-quality measures. The IVs used for these analyses are traditiona...

  1. Regression-based model of skin diffuse reflectance for skin color analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsumura, Norimichi; Kawazoe, Daisuke; Nakaguchi, Toshiya; Ojima, Nobutoshi; Miyake, Yoichi

    2008-11-01

    A simple regression-based model of skin diffuse reflectance is developed based on reflectance samples calculated by Monte Carlo simulation of light transport in a two-layered skin model. This reflectance model includes the values of spectral reflectance in the visible spectra for Japanese women. The modified Lambert Beer law holds in the proposed model with a modified mean free path length in non-linear density space. The averaged RMS and maximum errors of the proposed model were 1.1 and 3.1%, respectively, in the above range.

  2. Evaluating Non-Linear Regression Models in Analysis of Persian Walnut Fruit Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Karamatlou

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Persian walnut (Juglans regia L. is a large, wind-pollinated, monoecious, dichogamous, long lived, perennial tree cultivated for its high quality wood and nuts throughout the temperate regions of the world. Growth model methodology has been widely used in the modeling of plant growth. Mathematical models are important tools to study the plant growth and agricultural systems. These models can be applied for decision-making anddesigning management procedures in horticulture. Through growth analysis, planning for planting systems, fertilization, pruning operations, harvest time as well as obtaining economical yield can be more accessible.Non-linear models are more difficult to specify and estimate than linear models. This research was aimed to studynon-linear regression models based on data obtained from fruit weight, length and width. Selecting the best models which explain that fruit inherent growth pattern of Persian walnut was a further goal of this study. Materials and Methods: The experimental material comprising 14 Persian walnut genotypes propagated by seed collected from a walnut orchard in Golestan province, Minoudasht region, Iran, at latitude 37◦04’N; longitude 55◦32’E; altitude 1060 m, in a silt loam soil type. These genotypes were selected as a representative sampling of the many walnut genotypes available throughout the Northeastern Iran. The age range of walnut trees was 30 to 50 years. The annual mean temperature at the location is16.3◦C, with annual mean rainfall of 690 mm.The data used here is the average of walnut fresh fruit and measured withgram/millimeter/day in2011.According to the data distribution pattern, several equations have been proposed to describesigmoidal growth patterns. Here, we used double-sigmoid and logistic–monomolecular models to evaluate fruit growth based on fruit weight and4different regression models in cluding Richards, Gompertz, Logistic and Exponential growth for evaluation

  3. Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    González, Andrés; Terasvirta, Timo; Dijk, Dick van

    We introduce the panel smooth transition regression model. This new model is intended for characterizing heterogeneous panels, allowing the regression coefficients to vary both across individuals and over time. Specifically, heterogeneity is allowed for by assuming that these coefficients are bou...

  4. Detection of Cutting Tool Wear using Statistical Analysis and Regression Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghani, Jaharah A.; Rizal, Muhammad; Nuawi, Mohd Zaki; Haron, Che Hassan Che; Ramli, Rizauddin

    2010-10-01

    This study presents a new method for detecting the cutting tool wear based on the measured cutting force signals. A statistical-based method called Integrated Kurtosis-based Algorithm for Z-Filter technique, called I-kaz was used for developing a regression model and 3D graphic presentation of I-kaz 3D coefficient during machining process. The machining tests were carried out using a CNC turning machine Colchester Master Tornado T4 in dry cutting condition. A Kistler 9255B dynamometer was used to measure the cutting force signals, which were transmitted, analyzed, and displayed in the DasyLab software. Various force signals from machining operation were analyzed, and each has its own I-kaz 3D coefficient. This coefficient was examined and its relationship with flank wear lands (VB) was determined. A regression model was developed due to this relationship, and results of the regression model shows that the I-kaz 3D coefficient value decreases as tool wear increases. The result then is used for real time tool wear monitoring.

  5. Regression analysis with categorized regression calibrated exposure: some interesting findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hjartåker Anette

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Regression calibration as a method for handling measurement error is becoming increasingly well-known and used in epidemiologic research. However, the standard version of the method is not appropriate for exposure analyzed on a categorical (e.g. quintile scale, an approach commonly used in epidemiologic studies. A tempting solution could then be to use the predicted continuous exposure obtained through the regression calibration method and treat it as an approximation to the true exposure, that is, include the categorized calibrated exposure in the main regression analysis. Methods We use semi-analytical calculations and simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach compared to the naive approach of not correcting for measurement error, in situations where analyses are performed on quintile scale and when incorporating the original scale into the categorical variables, respectively. We also present analyses of real data, containing measures of folate intake and depression, from the Norwegian Women and Cancer study (NOWAC. Results In cases where extra information is available through replicated measurements and not validation data, regression calibration does not maintain important qualities of the true exposure distribution, thus estimates of variance and percentiles can be severely biased. We show that the outlined approach maintains much, in some cases all, of the misclassification found in the observed exposure. For that reason, regression analysis with the corrected variable included on a categorical scale is still biased. In some cases the corrected estimates are analytically equal to those obtained by the naive approach. Regression calibration is however vastly superior to the naive method when applying the medians of each category in the analysis. Conclusion Regression calibration in its most well-known form is not appropriate for measurement error correction when the exposure is analyzed on a

  6. A novel simple QSAR model for the prediction of anti-HIV activity using multiple linear regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afantitis, Antreas; Melagraki, Georgia; Sarimveis, Haralambos; Koutentis, Panayiotis A; Markopoulos, John; Igglessi-Markopoulou, Olga

    2006-08-01

    A quantitative-structure activity relationship was obtained by applying Multiple Linear Regression Analysis to a series of 80 1-[2-hydroxyethoxy-methyl]-6-(phenylthio) thymine (HEPT) derivatives with significant anti-HIV activity. For the selection of the best among 37 different descriptors, the Elimination Selection Stepwise Regression Method (ES-SWR) was utilized. The resulting QSAR model (R (2) (CV) = 0.8160; S (PRESS) = 0.5680) proved to be very accurate both in training and predictive stages.

  7. Capacitance Regression Modelling Analysis on Latex from Selected Rubber Tree Clones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosli, A D; Baharudin, R; Hashim, H; Khairuzzaman, N A; Mohd Sampian, A F; Abdullah, N E; Kamaru'zzaman, M; Sulaiman, M S

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the capacitance regression modelling performance of latex for various rubber tree clones, namely clone 2002, 2008, 2014 and 3001. Conventionally, the rubber tree clones identification are based on observation towards tree features such as shape of leaf, trunk, branching habit and pattern of seeds texture. The former method requires expert persons and very time-consuming. Currently, there is no sensing device based on electrical properties that can be employed to measure different clones from latex samples. Hence, with a hypothesis that the dielectric constant of each clone varies, this paper discusses the development of a capacitance sensor via Capacitance Comparison Bridge (known as capacitance sensor) to measure an output voltage of different latex samples. The proposed sensor is initially tested with 30ml of latex sample prior to gradually addition of dilution water. The output voltage and capacitance obtained from the test are recorded and analyzed using Simple Linear Regression (SLR) model. This work outcome infers that latex clone of 2002 has produced the highest and reliable linear regression line with determination coefficient of 91.24%. In addition, the study also found that the capacitive elements in latex samples deteriorate if it is diluted with higher volume of water. (paper)

  8. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  9. Use of generalized regression models for the analysis of stress-rupture data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booker, M.K.

    1978-01-01

    The design of components for operation in an elevated-temperature environment often requires a detailed consideration of the creep and creep-rupture properties of the construction materials involved. Techniques for the analysis and extrapolation of creep data have been widely discussed. The paper presents a generalized regression approach to the analysis of such data. This approach has been applied to multiple heat data sets for types 304 and 316 austenitic stainless steel, ferritic 2 1 / 4 Cr-1 Mo steel, and the high-nickel austenitic alloy 800H. Analyses of data for single heats of several materials are also presented. All results appear good. The techniques presented represent a simple yet flexible and powerful means for the analysis and extrapolation of creep and creep-rupture data

  10. Modified Regression Correlation Coefficient for Poisson Regression Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaengthong, Nattacha; Domthong, Uthumporn

    2017-09-01

    This study gives attention to indicators in predictive power of the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) which are widely used; however, often having some restrictions. We are interested in regression correlation coefficient for a Poisson regression model. This is a measure of predictive power, and defined by the relationship between the dependent variable (Y) and the expected value of the dependent variable given the independent variables [E(Y|X)] for the Poisson regression model. The dependent variable is distributed as Poisson. The purpose of this research was modifying regression correlation coefficient for Poisson regression model. We also compare the proposed modified regression correlation coefficient with the traditional regression correlation coefficient in the case of two or more independent variables, and having multicollinearity in independent variables. The result shows that the proposed regression correlation coefficient is better than the traditional regression correlation coefficient based on Bias and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).

  11. Regression models of reactor diagnostic signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vavrin, J.

    1989-01-01

    The application is described of an autoregression model as the simplest regression model of diagnostic signals in experimental analysis of diagnostic systems, in in-service monitoring of normal and anomalous conditions and their diagnostics. The method of diagnostics is described using a regression type diagnostic data base and regression spectral diagnostics. The diagnostics is described of neutron noise signals from anomalous modes in the experimental fuel assembly of a reactor. (author)

  12. Implementation and evaluation of nonparametric regression procedures for sensitivity analysis of computationally demanding models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storlie, Curtis B.; Swiler, Laura P.; Helton, Jon C.; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

    2009-01-01

    The analysis of many physical and engineering problems involves running complex computational models (simulation models, computer codes). With problems of this type, it is important to understand the relationships between the input variables (whose values are often imprecisely known) and the output. The goal of sensitivity analysis (SA) is to study this relationship and identify the most significant factors or variables affecting the results of the model. In this presentation, an improvement on existing methods for SA of complex computer models is described for use when the model is too computationally expensive for a standard Monte-Carlo analysis. In these situations, a meta-model or surrogate model can be used to estimate the necessary sensitivity index for each input. A sensitivity index is a measure of the variance in the response that is due to the uncertainty in an input. Most existing approaches to this problem either do not work well with a large number of input variables and/or they ignore the error involved in estimating a sensitivity index. Here, a new approach to sensitivity index estimation using meta-models and bootstrap confidence intervals is described that provides solutions to these drawbacks. Further, an efficient yet effective approach to incorporate this methodology into an actual SA is presented. Several simulated and real examples illustrate the utility of this approach. This framework can be extended to uncertainty analysis as well.

  13. Multivariate Regression Analysis and Statistical Modeling for Summer Extreme Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Gao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme precipitation is likely to be one of the most severe meteorological disasters in China; however, studies on the physical factors affecting precipitation extremes and corresponding prediction models are not accurately available. From a new point of view, the sensible heat flux (SHF and latent heat flux (LHF, which have significant impacts on summer extreme rainfall in Yangtze River basin (YRB, have been quantified and then selections of the impact factors are conducted. Firstly, a regional extreme precipitation index was applied to determine Regions of Significant Correlation (RSC by analyzing spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between this index and SHF, LHF, and sea surface temperature (SST on global ocean scale; then the time series of SHF, LHF, and SST in RSCs during 1967–2010 were selected. Furthermore, other factors that significantly affect variations in precipitation extremes over YRB were also selected. The methods of multiple stepwise regression and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV were utilized to analyze and test influencing factors and statistical prediction model. The correlation coefficient between observed regional extreme index and model simulation result is 0.85, with significant level at 99%. This suggested that the forecast skill was acceptable although many aspects of the prediction model should be improved.

  14. Evaluation of logistic regression models and effect of covariates for case-control study in RNA-Seq analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Seung Hoan; Labadorf, Adam T; Myers, Richard H; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Dupuis, Josée; DeStefano, Anita L

    2017-02-06

    Next generation sequencing provides a count of RNA molecules in the form of short reads, yielding discrete, often highly non-normally distributed gene expression measurements. Although Negative Binomial (NB) regression has been generally accepted in the analysis of RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data, its appropriateness has not been exhaustively evaluated. We explore logistic regression as an alternative method for RNA-Seq studies designed to compare cases and controls, where disease status is modeled as a function of RNA-Seq reads using simulated and Huntington disease data. We evaluate the effect of adjusting for covariates that have an unknown relationship with gene expression. Finally, we incorporate the data adaptive method in order to compare false positive rates. When the sample size is small or the expression levels of a gene are highly dispersed, the NB regression shows inflated Type-I error rates but the Classical logistic and Bayes logistic (BL) regressions are conservative. Firth's logistic (FL) regression performs well or is slightly conservative. Large sample size and low dispersion generally make Type-I error rates of all methods close to nominal alpha levels of 0.05 and 0.01. However, Type-I error rates are controlled after applying the data adaptive method. The NB, BL, and FL regressions gain increased power with large sample size, large log2 fold-change, and low dispersion. The FL regression has comparable power to NB regression. We conclude that implementing the data adaptive method appropriately controls Type-I error rates in RNA-Seq analysis. Firth's logistic regression provides a concise statistical inference process and reduces spurious associations from inaccurately estimated dispersion parameters in the negative binomial framework.

  15. Testing a model of research intention among U.K. clinical psychologists: a logistic regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eke, Gemma; Holttum, Sue; Hayward, Mark

    2012-03-01

    Previous research highlights barriers to clinical psychologists conducting research, but has rarely examined U.K. clinical psychologists. The study investigated U.K. clinical psychologists' self-reported research output and tested part of a theoretical model of factors influencing their intention to conduct research. Questionnaires were mailed to 1,300 U.K. clinical psychologists. Three hundred and seventy-four questionnaires were returned (29% response-rate). This study replicated in a U.K. sample the finding that the modal number of publications was zero, highlighted in a number of U.K. and U.S. studies. Research intention was bimodally distributed, and logistic regression classified 78% of cases successfully. Outcome expectations, perceived behavioral control and normative beliefs mediated between research training environment and intention. Further research should explore how research is negotiated in clinical roles, and this issue should be incorporated into prequalification training. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Linear regression models and k-means clustering for statistical analysis of fNIRS data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonomini, Viola; Zucchelli, Lucia; Re, Rebecca; Ieva, Francesca; Spinelli, Lorenzo; Contini, Davide; Paganoni, Anna; Torricelli, Alessandro

    2015-02-01

    We propose a new algorithm, based on a linear regression model, to statistically estimate the hemodynamic activations in fNIRS data sets. The main concern guiding the algorithm development was the minimization of assumptions and approximations made on the data set for the application of statistical tests. Further, we propose a K-means method to cluster fNIRS data (i.e. channels) as activated or not activated. The methods were validated both on simulated and in vivo fNIRS data. A time domain (TD) fNIRS technique was preferred because of its high performances in discriminating cortical activation and superficial physiological changes. However, the proposed method is also applicable to continuous wave or frequency domain fNIRS data sets.

  17. Gaussian Process Regression Model in Spatial Logistic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofro, A.; Oktaviarina, A.

    2018-01-01

    Spatial analysis has developed very quickly in the last decade. One of the favorite approaches is based on the neighbourhood of the region. Unfortunately, there are some limitations such as difficulty in prediction. Therefore, we offer Gaussian process regression (GPR) to accommodate the issue. In this paper, we will focus on spatial modeling with GPR for binomial data with logit link function. The performance of the model will be investigated. We will discuss the inference of how to estimate the parameters and hyper-parameters and to predict as well. Furthermore, simulation studies will be explained in the last section.

  18. Laser-induced Breakdown spectroscopy quantitative analysis method via adaptive analytical line selection and relevance vector machine regression model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jianhong; Yi, Cancan; Xu, Jinwu; Ma, Xianghong

    2015-01-01

    A new LIBS quantitative analysis method based on analytical line adaptive selection and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) regression model is proposed. First, a scheme of adaptively selecting analytical line is put forward in order to overcome the drawback of high dependency on a priori knowledge. The candidate analytical lines are automatically selected based on the built-in characteristics of spectral lines, such as spectral intensity, wavelength and width at half height. The analytical lines which will be used as input variables of regression model are determined adaptively according to the samples for both training and testing. Second, an LIBS quantitative analysis method based on RVM is presented. The intensities of analytical lines and the elemental concentrations of certified standard samples are used to train the RVM regression model. The predicted elemental concentration analysis results will be given with a form of confidence interval of probabilistic distribution, which is helpful for evaluating the uncertainness contained in the measured spectra. Chromium concentration analysis experiments of 23 certified standard high-alloy steel samples have been carried out. The multiple correlation coefficient of the prediction was up to 98.85%, and the average relative error of the prediction was 4.01%. The experiment results showed that the proposed LIBS quantitative analysis method achieved better prediction accuracy and better modeling robustness compared with the methods based on partial least squares regression, artificial neural network and standard support vector machine. - Highlights: • Both training and testing samples are considered for analytical lines selection. • The analytical lines are auto-selected based on the built-in characteristics of spectral lines. • The new method can achieve better prediction accuracy and modeling robustness. • Model predictions are given with confidence interval of probabilistic distribution

  19. Multivariate regression models for the simultaneous quantitative analysis of calcium and magnesium carbonates and magnesium oxide through drifts data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marder Luciano

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present work multivariate regression models were developed for the quantitative analysis of ternary systems using Diffuse Reflectance Infrared Fourier Transform Spectroscopy (DRIFTS to determine the concentration in weight of calcium carbonate, magnesium carbonate and magnesium oxide. Nineteen spectra of standard samples previously defined in ternary diagram by mixture design were prepared and mid-infrared diffuse reflectance spectra were recorded. The partial least squares (PLS regression method was applied to the model. The spectra set was preprocessed by either mean-centered and variance-scaled (model 2 or mean-centered only (model 1. The results based on the prediction performance of the external validation set expressed by RMSEP (root mean square error of prediction demonstrated that it is possible to develop good models to simultaneously determine calcium carbonate, magnesium carbonate and magnesium oxide content in powdered samples that can be used in the study of the thermal decomposition of dolomite rocks.

  20. Simple estimation procedures for regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data under the proportional hazards model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jianguo; Feng, Yanqin; Zhao, Hui

    2015-01-01

    Interval-censored failure time data occur in many fields including epidemiological and medical studies as well as financial and sociological studies, and many authors have investigated their analysis (Sun, The statistical analysis of interval-censored failure time data, 2006; Zhang, Stat Modeling 9:321-343, 2009). In particular, a number of procedures have been developed for regression analysis of interval-censored data arising from the proportional hazards model (Finkelstein, Biometrics 42:845-854, 1986; Huang, Ann Stat 24:540-568, 1996; Pan, Biometrics 56:199-203, 2000). For most of these procedures, however, one drawback is that they involve estimation of both regression parameters and baseline cumulative hazard function. In this paper, we propose two simple estimation approaches that do not need estimation of the baseline cumulative hazard function. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimates are given, and an extensive simulation study is conducted and indicates that they work well for practical situations.

  1. Analysis of radiocardiographic first pass activity versus time data using models of the central circulation and nonlinear regression analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felix, A.C.

    1988-01-01

    In this study mathematical models of the central circulation, containing as undetermined parameters both chamber volumes and crosstalk coefficients, relating region-of-interest count rates to activity no only in the corresponding chamber but also overlapping and contiguous anatomical chambers, were used to identify contaminating crosstalk contributions to the various time-activity curves of interest. The identification of these crosstalks was essential for the creation of decontaminated region-of-interest time-activity curves which could be used for further model analysis. The decontaminated curves represent what the region-of-interest time-activity curves would look like in the absence of crosstalks. An optimal sampling route in was added to the nonlinear regression least squares fit program so that the region-of-interest time-activity curves could be analyzed to determine which data points contributed most toward decreasing the standard error or each parameter. A biplane model was investigated for use in analyzing radionuclide angiocardiographic first pass data

  2. An Additive-Multiplicative Cox-Aalen Regression Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2002-01-01

    Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; Cox regression; survival analysis; time-varying effects......Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; Cox regression; survival analysis; time-varying effects...

  3. Regression modeling of ground-water flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooley, R.L.; Naff, R.L.

    1985-01-01

    Nonlinear multiple regression methods are developed to model and analyze groundwater flow systems. Complete descriptions of regression methodology as applied to groundwater flow models allow scientists and engineers engaged in flow modeling to apply the methods to a wide range of problems. Organization of the text proceeds from an introduction that discusses the general topic of groundwater flow modeling, to a review of basic statistics necessary to properly apply regression techniques, and then to the main topic: exposition and use of linear and nonlinear regression to model groundwater flow. Statistical procedures are given to analyze and use the regression models. A number of exercises and answers are included to exercise the student on nearly all the methods that are presented for modeling and statistical analysis. Three computer programs implement the more complex methods. These three are a general two-dimensional, steady-state regression model for flow in an anisotropic, heterogeneous porous medium, a program to calculate a measure of model nonlinearity with respect to the regression parameters, and a program to analyze model errors in computed dependent variables such as hydraulic head. (USGS)

  4. Schistosoma mansoni reinfection: Analysis of risk factors by classification and regression tree (CART modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andréa Gazzinelli

    Full Text Available Praziquantel (PZQ is an effective chemotherapy for schistosomiasis mansoni and a mainstay for its control and potential elimination. However, it does not prevent against reinfection, which can occur rapidly in areas with active transmission. A guide to ranking the risk factors for Schistosoma mansoni reinfection would greatly contribute to prioritizing resources and focusing prevention and control measures to prevent rapid reinfection. The objective of the current study was to explore the relationship among the socioeconomic, demographic, and epidemiological factors that can influence reinfection by S. mansoni one year after successful treatment with PZQ in school-aged children in Northeastern Minas Gerais state Brazil. Parasitological, socioeconomic, demographic, and water contact information were surveyed in 506 S. mansoni-infected individuals, aged 6 to 15 years, resident in these endemic areas. Eligible individuals were treated with PZQ until they were determined to be negative by the absence of S. mansoni eggs in the feces on two consecutive days of Kato-Katz fecal thick smear. These individuals were surveyed again 12 months from the date of successful treatment with PZQ. A classification and regression tree modeling (CART was then used to explore the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic, and epidemiological variables and their reinfection status. The most important risk factor identified for S. mansoni reinfection was their "heavy" infection at baseline. Additional analyses, excluding heavy infection status, showed that lower socioeconomic status and a lower level of education of the household head were also most important risk factors for S. mansoni reinfection. Our results provide an important contribution toward the control and possible elimination of schistosomiasis by identifying three major risk factors that can be used for targeted treatment and monitoring of reinfection. We suggest that control measures that target

  5. Two Paradoxes in Linear Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    FENG, Ge; PENG, Jing; TU, Dongke; ZHENG, Julia Z.; FENG, Changyong

    2016-01-01

    Summary Regression is one of the favorite tools in applied statistics. However, misuse and misinterpretation of results from regression analysis are common in biomedical research. In this paper we use statistical theory and simulation studies to clarify some paradoxes around this popular statistical method. In particular, we show that a widely used model selection procedure employed in many publications in top medical journals is wrong. Formal procedures based on solid statistical theory should be used in model selection. PMID:28638214

  6. Regression analysis using dependent Polya trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schörgendorfer, Angela; Branscum, Adam J

    2013-11-30

    Many commonly used models for linear regression analysis force overly simplistic shape and scale constraints on the residual structure of data. We propose a semiparametric Bayesian model for regression analysis that produces data-driven inference by using a new type of dependent Polya tree prior to model arbitrary residual distributions that are allowed to evolve across increasing levels of an ordinal covariate (e.g., time, in repeated measurement studies). By modeling residual distributions at consecutive covariate levels or time points using separate, but dependent Polya tree priors, distributional information is pooled while allowing for broad pliability to accommodate many types of changing residual distributions. We can use the proposed dependent residual structure in a wide range of regression settings, including fixed-effects and mixed-effects linear and nonlinear models for cross-sectional, prospective, and repeated measurement data. A simulation study illustrates the flexibility of our novel semiparametric regression model to accurately capture evolving residual distributions. In an application to immune development data on immunoglobulin G antibodies in children, our new model outperforms several contemporary semiparametric regression models based on a predictive model selection criterion. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Multiplex analysis of cytokines involved in tumour growth and spontaneous regression in a rat sarcoma model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Strnádel, Ján; Kverka, Miloslav; Horák, Vratislav; Vannucci, Luca; Usvald, Dušan; Hlučilová, Jana; Plánská, Daniela; Váňa, Petr; Reisnerová, H.; Jílek, F.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 53, - (2007), s. 216-219 ISSN 0015-5500 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA524/04/0102; GA ČR GD310/03/H147; GA ČR GD523/03/H076; GA AV ČR IAA600450601; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA500200510; GA MŠk 2B06130 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50450515; CEZ:AV0Z50200510 Keywords : cytokines * sarcoma cells * spontaneous regression Subject RIV: FD - Oncology ; Hematology Impact factor: 0.596, year: 2007

  8. Animal models of maternal high fat diet exposure and effects on metabolism in offspring: a meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribaroff, G A; Wastnedge, E; Drake, A J; Sharpe, R M; Chambers, T J G

    2017-06-01

    Animal models of maternal high fat diet (HFD) demonstrate perturbed offspring metabolism although the effects differ markedly between models. We assessed studies investigating metabolic parameters in the offspring of HFD fed mothers to identify factors explaining these inter-study differences. A total of 171 papers were identified, which provided data from 6047 offspring. Data were extracted regarding body weight, adiposity, glucose homeostasis and lipidaemia. Information regarding the macronutrient content of diet, species, time point of exposure and gestational weight gain were collected and utilized in meta-regression models to explore predictive factors. Publication bias was assessed using Egger's regression test. Maternal HFD exposure did not affect offspring birthweight but increased weaning weight, final bodyweight, adiposity, triglyceridaemia, cholesterolaemia and insulinaemia in both female and male offspring. Hyperglycaemia was found in female offspring only. Meta-regression analysis identified lactational HFD exposure as a key moderator. The fat content of the diet did not correlate with any outcomes. There was evidence of significant publication bias for all outcomes except birthweight. Maternal HFD exposure was associated with perturbed metabolism in offspring but between studies was not accounted for by dietary constituents, species, strain or maternal gestational weight gain. Specific weaknesses in experimental design predispose many of the results to bias. © 2017 The Authors. Obesity Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of World Obesity Federation.

  9. Applied Regression Modeling A Business Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Pardoe, Iain

    2012-01-01

    An applied and concise treatment of statistical regression techniques for business students and professionals who have little or no background in calculusRegression analysis is an invaluable statistical methodology in business settings and is vital to model the relationship between a response variable and one or more predictor variables, as well as the prediction of a response value given values of the predictors. In view of the inherent uncertainty of business processes, such as the volatility of consumer spending and the presence of market uncertainty, business professionals use regression a

  10. Modelling lecturer performance index of private university in Tulungagung by using survival analysis with multivariate adaptive regression spline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasyim, M.; Prastyo, D. D.

    2018-03-01

    Survival analysis performs relationship between independent variables and survival time as dependent variable. In fact, not all survival data can be recorded completely by any reasons. In such situation, the data is called censored data. Moreover, several model for survival analysis requires assumptions. One of the approaches in survival analysis is nonparametric that gives more relax assumption. In this research, the nonparametric approach that is employed is Multivariate Regression Adaptive Spline (MARS). This study is aimed to measure the performance of private university’s lecturer. The survival time in this study is duration needed by lecturer to obtain their professional certificate. The results show that research activities is a significant factor along with developing courses material, good publication in international or national journal, and activities in research collaboration.

  11. Interpretation of commonly used statistical regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasza, Jessica; Wolfe, Rory

    2014-01-01

    A review of some regression models commonly used in respiratory health applications is provided in this article. Simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression are considered. The focus of this article is on the interpretation of the regression coefficients of each model, which are illustrated through the application of these models to a respiratory health research study. © 2013 The Authors. Respirology © 2013 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

  12. Credit Scoring Problem Based on Regression Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Khassawneh, Bashar Suhil Jad Allah

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: This thesis provides an explanatory introduction to the regression models of data mining and contains basic definitions of key terms in the linear, multiple and logistic regression models. Meanwhile, the aim of this study is to illustrate fitting models for the credit scoring problem using simple linear, multiple linear and logistic regression models and also to analyze the found model functions by statistical tools. Keywords: Data mining, linear regression, logistic regression....

  13. Method for nonlinear exponential regression analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junkin, B. G.

    1972-01-01

    Two computer programs developed according to two general types of exponential models for conducting nonlinear exponential regression analysis are described. Least squares procedure is used in which the nonlinear problem is linearized by expanding in a Taylor series. Program is written in FORTRAN 5 for the Univac 1108 computer.

  14. Modeling and Predicting AD Progression by Regression Analysis of Sequential Clinical Data

    KAUST Repository

    Xie, Qing

    2016-02-23

    Alzheimer\\'s Disease (AD) is currently attracting much attention in elders\\' care. As the increasing availability of massive clinical diagnosis data, especially the medical images of brain scan, it is highly significant to precisely identify and predict the potential AD\\'s progression based on the knowledge in the diagnosis data. In this paper, we follow a novel sequential learning framework to model the disease progression for AD patients\\' care. Different from the conventional approaches using only initial or static diagnosis data to model the disease progression for different durations, we design a score-involved approach and make use of the sequential diagnosis information in different disease stages to jointly simulate the disease progression. The actual clinical scores are utilized in progress to make the prediction more pertinent and reliable. We examined our approach by extensive experiments on the clinical data provided by the Alzheimer\\'s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The results indicate that the proposed approach is more effective to simulate and predict the disease progression compared with the existing methods.

  15. Modeling and Predicting AD Progression by Regression Analysis of Sequential Clinical Data

    KAUST Repository

    Xie, Qing; Wang, Su; Zhu, Jia; Zhang, Xiangliang

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is currently attracting much attention in elders' care. As the increasing availability of massive clinical diagnosis data, especially the medical images of brain scan, it is highly significant to precisely identify and predict the potential AD's progression based on the knowledge in the diagnosis data. In this paper, we follow a novel sequential learning framework to model the disease progression for AD patients' care. Different from the conventional approaches using only initial or static diagnosis data to model the disease progression for different durations, we design a score-involved approach and make use of the sequential diagnosis information in different disease stages to jointly simulate the disease progression. The actual clinical scores are utilized in progress to make the prediction more pertinent and reliable. We examined our approach by extensive experiments on the clinical data provided by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The results indicate that the proposed approach is more effective to simulate and predict the disease progression compared with the existing methods.

  16. Modeling the energy content of combustible ship-scrapping waste at Alang-Sosiya, India, using multiple regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, M Srinivasa; Basha, Shaik; Joshi, H V; Sravan Kumar, V G; Jha, B; Ghosh, P K

    2005-01-01

    Alang-Sosiya is the largest ship-scrapping yard in the world, established in 1982. Every year an average of 171 ships having a mean weight of 2.10 x 10(6)(+/-7.82 x 10(5)) of light dead weight tonnage (LDT) being scrapped. Apart from scrapped metals, this yard generates a massive amount of combustible solid waste in the form of waste wood, plastic, insulation material, paper, glass wool, thermocol pieces (polyurethane foam material), sponge, oiled rope, cotton waste, rubber, etc. In this study multiple regression analysis was used to develop predictive models for energy content of combustible ship-scrapping solid wastes. The scope of work comprised qualitative and quantitative estimation of solid waste samples and performing a sequential selection procedure for isolating variables. Three regression models were developed to correlate the energy content (net calorific values (LHV)) with variables derived from material composition, proximate and ultimate analyses. The performance of these models for this particular waste complies well with the equations developed by other researchers (Dulong, Steuer, Scheurer-Kestner and Bento's) for estimating energy content of municipal solid waste.

  17. Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal Component Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

    2014-01-01

    Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series. PMID:24895666

  18. Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ani Shabri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI, has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series.

  19. Crude oil price forecasting based on hybridizing wavelet multiple linear regression model, particle swarm optimization techniques, and principal component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

    2014-01-01

    Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series.

  20. AIRLINE ACTIVITY FORECASTING BY REGRESSION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Н. Білак

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Proposed linear and nonlinear regression models, which take into account the equation of trend and seasonality indices for the analysis and restore the volume of passenger traffic over the past period of time and its prediction for future years, as well as the algorithm of formation of these models based on statistical analysis over the years. The desired model is the first step for the synthesis of more complex models, which will enable forecasting of passenger (income level airline with the highest accuracy and time urgency.

  1. Logistic Regression Modeling of Diminishing Manufacturing Sources for Integrated Circuits

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gravier, Michael

    1999-01-01

    .... The research identified logistic regression as a powerful tool for analysis of DMSMS and further developed twenty models attempting to identify the "best" way to model and predict DMSMS using logistic regression...

  2. Influence diagnostics in meta-regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Lei; Zuo, ShanShan; Yu, Dalei; Zhou, Xiaohua

    2017-09-01

    This paper studies the influence diagnostics in meta-regression model including case deletion diagnostic and local influence analysis. We derive the subset deletion formulae for the estimation of regression coefficient and heterogeneity variance and obtain the corresponding influence measures. The DerSimonian and Laird estimation and maximum likelihood estimation methods in meta-regression are considered, respectively, to derive the results. Internal and external residual and leverage measure are defined. The local influence analysis based on case-weights perturbation scheme, responses perturbation scheme, covariate perturbation scheme, and within-variance perturbation scheme are explored. We introduce a method by simultaneous perturbing responses, covariate, and within-variance to obtain the local influence measure, which has an advantage of capable to compare the influence magnitude of influential studies from different perturbations. An example is used to illustrate the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Research on refugees and immigrants social integration in Yunnan Border Area: An empirical analysis on the multivariable linear regression model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Nai

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A great number of immigration populations resident permanently in Yunnan Border Area of China. To some extent, these people belong to refugees or immigrants in accordance with International Rules, which significantly features the social diversity of this area. However, this kind of social diversity always impairs the social order. Therefore, there will be a positive influence to the local society governance by a research on local immigration integration. This essay hereby attempts to acquire the data of the living situation of these border area immigration and refugees. The analysis of the social integration of refugees and immigration in Yunnan border area in China will be deployed through the modeling of multivariable linear regression based on these data in order to propose some more achievable resolutions.

  4. A Skew-t space-varying regression model for the spectral analysis of resting state brain activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Salimah; Sun, Wenqi; Nathoo, Farouk S; Babul, Arif; Moiseev, Alexader; Beg, Mirza Faisal; Virji-Babul, Naznin

    2013-08-01

    It is known that in many neurological disorders such as Down syndrome, main brain rhythms shift their frequencies slightly, and characterizing the spatial distribution of these shifts is of interest. This article reports on the development of a Skew-t mixed model for the spatial analysis of resting state brain activity in healthy controls and individuals with Down syndrome. Time series of oscillatory brain activity are recorded using magnetoencephalography, and spectral summaries are examined at multiple sensor locations across the scalp. We focus on the mean frequency of the power spectral density, and use space-varying regression to examine associations with age, gender and Down syndrome across several scalp regions. Spatial smoothing priors are incorporated based on a multivariate Markov random field, and the markedly non-Gaussian nature of the spectral response variable is accommodated by the use of a Skew-t distribution. A range of models representing different assumptions on the association structure and response distribution are examined, and we conduct model selection using the deviance information criterion. (1) Our analysis suggests region-specific differences between healthy controls and individuals with Down syndrome, particularly in the left and right temporal regions, and produces smoothed maps indicating the scalp topography of the estimated differences.

  5. Principal component regression analysis with SPSS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, R X; Kuang, J; Gong, Q; Hou, X L

    2003-06-01

    The paper introduces all indices of multicollinearity diagnoses, the basic principle of principal component regression and determination of 'best' equation method. The paper uses an example to describe how to do principal component regression analysis with SPSS 10.0: including all calculating processes of the principal component regression and all operations of linear regression, factor analysis, descriptives, compute variable and bivariate correlations procedures in SPSS 10.0. The principal component regression analysis can be used to overcome disturbance of the multicollinearity. The simplified, speeded up and accurate statistical effect is reached through the principal component regression analysis with SPSS.

  6. Regression Analysis by Example. 5th Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samprit; Hadi, Ali S.

    2012-01-01

    Regression analysis is a conceptually simple method for investigating relationships among variables. Carrying out a successful application of regression analysis, however, requires a balance of theoretical results, empirical rules, and subjective judgment. "Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition" has been expanded and thoroughly…

  7. Survival analysis II: Cox regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stel, Vianda S.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Tripepi, Giovanni; Zoccali, Carmine; Jager, Kitty J.

    2011-01-01

    In contrast to the Kaplan-Meier method, Cox proportional hazards regression can provide an effect estimate by quantifying the difference in survival between patient groups and can adjust for confounding effects of other variables. The purpose of this article is to explain the basic concepts of the

  8. On logistic regression analysis of dichotomized responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Kaifeng

    2017-01-01

    We study the properties of treatment effect estimate in terms of odds ratio at the study end point from logistic regression model adjusting for the baseline value when the underlying continuous repeated measurements follow a multivariate normal distribution. Compared with the analysis that does not adjust for the baseline value, the adjusted analysis produces a larger treatment effect as well as a larger standard error. However, the increase in standard error is more than offset by the increase in treatment effect so that the adjusted analysis is more powerful than the unadjusted analysis for detecting the treatment effect. On the other hand, the true adjusted odds ratio implied by the normal distribution of the underlying continuous variable is a function of the baseline value and hence is unlikely to be able to be adequately represented by a single value of adjusted odds ratio from the logistic regression model. In contrast, the risk difference function derived from the logistic regression model provides a reasonable approximation to the true risk difference function implied by the normal distribution of the underlying continuous variable over the range of the baseline distribution. We show that different metrics of treatment effect have similar statistical power when evaluated at the baseline mean. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. GIS-based groundwater potential analysis using novel ensemble weights-of-evidence with logistic regression and functional tree models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei; Li, Hui; Hou, Enke; Wang, Shengquan; Wang, Guirong; Panahi, Mahdi; Li, Tao; Peng, Tao; Guo, Chen; Niu, Chao; Xiao, Lele; Wang, Jiale; Xie, Xiaoshen; Ahmad, Baharin Bin

    2018-09-01

    The aim of the current study was to produce groundwater spring potential maps using novel ensemble weights-of-evidence (WoE) with logistic regression (LR) and functional tree (FT) models. First, a total of 66 springs were identified by field surveys, out of which 70% of the spring locations were used for training the models and 30% of the spring locations were employed for the validation process. Second, a total of 14 affecting factors including aspect, altitude, slope, plan curvature, profile curvature, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), sediment transport index (STI), lithology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land use, soil, distance to roads, and distance to streams was used to analyze the spatial relationship between these affecting factors and spring occurrences. Multicollinearity analysis and feature selection of the correlation attribute evaluation (CAE) method were employed to optimize the affecting factors. Subsequently, the novel ensembles of the WoE, LR, and FT models were constructed using the training dataset. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, standard error, confidence interval (CI) at 95%, and significance level P were employed to validate and compare the performance of three models. Overall, all three models performed well for groundwater spring potential evaluation. The prediction capability of the FT model, with the highest AUC values, the smallest standard errors, the narrowest CIs, and the smallest P values for the training and validation datasets, is better compared to those of other models. The groundwater spring potential maps can be adopted for the management of water resources and land use by planners and engineers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mufudza, Chipo; Erol, Hamza

    2016-01-01

    Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model.

  11. Introduction to the use of regression models in epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Ralf

    2009-01-01

    Regression modeling is one of the most important statistical techniques used in analytical epidemiology. By means of regression models the effect of one or several explanatory variables (e.g., exposures, subject characteristics, risk factors) on a response variable such as mortality or cancer can be investigated. From multiple regression models, adjusted effect estimates can be obtained that take the effect of potential confounders into account. Regression methods can be applied in all epidemiologic study designs so that they represent a universal tool for data analysis in epidemiology. Different kinds of regression models have been developed in dependence on the measurement scale of the response variable and the study design. The most important methods are linear regression for continuous outcomes, logistic regression for binary outcomes, Cox regression for time-to-event data, and Poisson regression for frequencies and rates. This chapter provides a nontechnical introduction to these regression models with illustrating examples from cancer research.

  12. River flow prediction using hybrid models of support vector regression with the wavelet transform, singular spectrum analysis and chaotic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baydaroğlu, Özlem; Koçak, Kasım; Duran, Kemal

    2018-06-01

    Prediction of water amount that will enter the reservoirs in the following month is of vital importance especially for semi-arid countries like Turkey. Climate projections emphasize that water scarcity will be one of the serious problems in the future. This study presents a methodology for predicting river flow for the subsequent month based on the time series of observed monthly river flow with hybrid models of support vector regression (SVR). Monthly river flow over the period 1940-2012 observed for the Kızılırmak River in Turkey has been used for training the method, which then has been applied for predictions over a period of 3 years. SVR is a specific implementation of support vector machines (SVMs), which transforms the observed input data time series into a high-dimensional feature space (input matrix) by way of a kernel function and performs a linear regression in this space. SVR requires a special input matrix. The input matrix was produced by wavelet transforms (WT), singular spectrum analysis (SSA), and a chaotic approach (CA) applied to the input time series. WT convolutes the original time series into a series of wavelets, and SSA decomposes the time series into a trend, an oscillatory and a noise component by singular value decomposition. CA uses a phase space formed by trajectories, which represent the dynamics producing the time series. These three methods for producing the input matrix for the SVR proved successful, while the SVR-WT combination resulted in the highest coefficient of determination and the lowest mean absolute error.

  13. Adaptive regression for modeling nonlinear relationships

    CERN Document Server

    Knafl, George J

    2016-01-01

    This book presents methods for investigating whether relationships are linear or nonlinear and for adaptively fitting appropriate models when they are nonlinear. Data analysts will learn how to incorporate nonlinearity in one or more predictor variables into regression models for different types of outcome variables. Such nonlinear dependence is often not considered in applied research, yet nonlinear relationships are common and so need to be addressed. A standard linear analysis can produce misleading conclusions, while a nonlinear analysis can provide novel insights into data, not otherwise possible. A variety of examples of the benefits of modeling nonlinear relationships are presented throughout the book. Methods are covered using what are called fractional polynomials based on real-valued power transformations of primary predictor variables combined with model selection based on likelihood cross-validation. The book covers how to formulate and conduct such adaptive fractional polynomial modeling in the s...

  14. Methods for significance testing of categorical covariates in logistic regression models after multiple imputation: power and applicability analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eekhout, I.; Wiel, M.A. van de; Heymans, M.W.

    2017-01-01

    Background. Multiple imputation is a recommended method to handle missing data. For significance testing after multiple imputation, Rubin’s Rules (RR) are easily applied to pool parameter estimates. In a logistic regression model, to consider whether a categorical covariate with more than two levels

  15. A method for nonlinear exponential regression analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junkin, B. G.

    1971-01-01

    A computer-oriented technique is presented for performing a nonlinear exponential regression analysis on decay-type experimental data. The technique involves the least squares procedure wherein the nonlinear problem is linearized by expansion in a Taylor series. A linear curve fitting procedure for determining the initial nominal estimates for the unknown exponential model parameters is included as an integral part of the technique. A correction matrix was derived and then applied to the nominal estimate to produce an improved set of model parameters. The solution cycle is repeated until some predetermined criterion is satisfied.

  16. Identifying Generalizable Image Segmentation Parameters for Urban Land Cover Mapping through Meta-Analysis and Regression Tree Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian A. Johnson

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The advent of very high resolution (VHR satellite imagery and the development of Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA have led to many new opportunities for fine-scale land cover mapping, especially in urban areas. Image segmentation is an important step in the GEOBIA framework, so great time/effort is often spent to ensure that computer-generated image segments closely match real-world objects of interest. In the remote sensing community, segmentation is frequently performed using the multiresolution segmentation (MRS algorithm, which is tuned through three user-defined parameters (the scale, shape/color, and compactness/smoothness parameters. The scale parameter (SP is the most important parameter and governs the average size of generated image segments. Existing automatic methods to determine suitable SPs for segmentation are scene-specific and often computationally intensive, so an approach to estimating appropriate SPs that is generalizable (i.e., not scene-specific could speed up the GEOBIA workflow considerably. In this study, we attempted to identify generalizable SPs for five common urban land cover types (buildings, vegetation, roads, bare soil, and water through meta-analysis and nonlinear regression tree (RT modeling. First, we performed a literature search of recent studies that employed GEOBIA for urban land cover mapping and extracted the MRS parameters used, the image properties (i.e., spatial and radiometric resolutions, and the land cover classes mapped. Using this data extracted from the literature, we constructed RT models for each land cover class to predict suitable SP values based on the: image spatial resolution, image radiometric resolution, shape/color parameter, and compactness/smoothness parameter. Based on a visual and quantitative analysis of results, we found that for all land cover classes except water, relatively accurate SPs could be identified using our RT modeling results. The main advantage of our

  17. Using Dominance Analysis to Determine Predictor Importance in Logistic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azen, Razia; Traxel, Nicole

    2009-01-01

    This article proposes an extension of dominance analysis that allows researchers to determine the relative importance of predictors in logistic regression models. Criteria for choosing logistic regression R[superscript 2] analogues were determined and measures were selected that can be used to perform dominance analysis in logistic regression. A…

  18. Financial performance monitoring of the technical efficiency of critical access hospitals: a data envelopment analysis and logistic regression modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Asa B; Kerr, Bernard J; Bastian, Nathaniel D; Fulton, Lawrence V

    2012-01-01

    From 1980 to 1999, rural designated hospitals closed at a disproportionally high rate. In response to this emergent threat to healthcare access in rural settings, the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 made provisions for the creation of a new rural hospital--the critical access hospital (CAH). The conversion to CAH and the associated cost-based reimbursement scheme significantly slowed the closure rate of rural hospitals. This work investigates which methods can ensure the long-term viability of small hospitals. This article uses a two-step design to focus on a hypothesized relationship between technical efficiency of CAHs and a recently developed set of financial monitors for these entities. The goal is to identify the financial performance measures associated with efficiency. The first step uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to differentiate efficient from inefficient facilities within a data set of 183 CAHs. Determining DEA efficiency is an a priori categorization of hospitals in the data set as efficient or inefficient. In the second step, DEA efficiency is the categorical dependent variable (efficient = 0, inefficient = 1) in the subsequent binary logistic regression (LR) model. A set of six financial monitors selected from the array of 20 measures were the LR independent variables. We use a binary LR to test the null hypothesis that recently developed CAH financial indicators had no predictive value for categorizing a CAH as efficient or inefficient, (i.e., there is no relationship between DEA efficiency and fiscal performance).

  19. Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

    1995-05-01

    The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

  20. Functional data analysis of generalized regression quantiles

    KAUST Repository

    Guo, Mengmeng

    2013-11-05

    Generalized regression quantiles, including the conditional quantiles and expectiles as special cases, are useful alternatives to the conditional means for characterizing a conditional distribution, especially when the interest lies in the tails. We develop a functional data analysis approach to jointly estimate a family of generalized regression quantiles. Our approach assumes that the generalized regression quantiles share some common features that can be summarized by a small number of principal component functions. The principal component functions are modeled as splines and are estimated by minimizing a penalized asymmetric loss measure. An iterative least asymmetrically weighted squares algorithm is developed for computation. While separate estimation of individual generalized regression quantiles usually suffers from large variability due to lack of sufficient data, by borrowing strength across data sets, our joint estimation approach significantly improves the estimation efficiency, which is demonstrated in a simulation study. The proposed method is applied to data from 159 weather stations in China to obtain the generalized quantile curves of the volatility of the temperature at these stations. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

  1. Functional data analysis of generalized regression quantiles

    KAUST Repository

    Guo, Mengmeng; Zhou, Lan; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Hä rdle, Wolfgang Karl

    2013-01-01

    Generalized regression quantiles, including the conditional quantiles and expectiles as special cases, are useful alternatives to the conditional means for characterizing a conditional distribution, especially when the interest lies in the tails. We develop a functional data analysis approach to jointly estimate a family of generalized regression quantiles. Our approach assumes that the generalized regression quantiles share some common features that can be summarized by a small number of principal component functions. The principal component functions are modeled as splines and are estimated by minimizing a penalized asymmetric loss measure. An iterative least asymmetrically weighted squares algorithm is developed for computation. While separate estimation of individual generalized regression quantiles usually suffers from large variability due to lack of sufficient data, by borrowing strength across data sets, our joint estimation approach significantly improves the estimation efficiency, which is demonstrated in a simulation study. The proposed method is applied to data from 159 weather stations in China to obtain the generalized quantile curves of the volatility of the temperature at these stations. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

  2. Applied regression analysis a research tool

    CERN Document Server

    Pantula, Sastry; Dickey, David

    1998-01-01

    Least squares estimation, when used appropriately, is a powerful research tool. A deeper understanding of the regression concepts is essential for achieving optimal benefits from a least squares analysis. This book builds on the fundamentals of statistical methods and provides appropriate concepts that will allow a scientist to use least squares as an effective research tool. Applied Regression Analysis is aimed at the scientist who wishes to gain a working knowledge of regression analysis. The basic purpose of this book is to develop an understanding of least squares and related statistical methods without becoming excessively mathematical. It is the outgrowth of more than 30 years of consulting experience with scientists and many years of teaching an applied regression course to graduate students. Applied Regression Analysis serves as an excellent text for a service course on regression for non-statisticians and as a reference for researchers. It also provides a bridge between a two-semester introduction to...

  3. Trend analysis by a piecewise linear regression model applied to surface air temperatures in Southeastern Spain (1973–2014)

    OpenAIRE

    Campra, Pablo; Morales, Maria

    2016-01-01

    The magnitude of the trends of environmental and climatic changes is mostly derived from the slopes of the linear trends using ordinary least-square fitting. An alternative flexible fitting model, piecewise regression, has been applied here to surface air temperature records in southeastern Spain for the recent warming period (1973–2014) to gain accuracy in the description of the inner structure of change, dividing the time series into linear segments with different slopes. Breakpoint y...

  4. Genetic analysis of body weights of individually fed beef bulls in South Africa using random regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selapa, N W; Nephawe, K A; Maiwashe, A; Norris, D

    2012-02-08

    The aim of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for body weights of individually fed beef bulls measured at centralized testing stations in South Africa using random regression models. Weekly body weights of Bonsmara bulls (N = 2919) tested between 1999 and 2003 were available for the analyses. The model included a fixed regression of the body weights on fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomials of the actual days on test (7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 56, 63, 70, 77, and 84) for starting age and contemporary group effects. Random regressions on fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomials of the actual days on test were included for additive genetic effects and additional uncorrelated random effects of the weaning-herd-year and the permanent environment of the animal. Residual effects were assumed to be independently distributed with heterogeneous variance for each test day. Variance ratios for additive genetic, permanent environment and weaning-herd-year for weekly body weights at different test days ranged from 0.26 to 0.29, 0.37 to 0.44 and 0.26 to 0.34, respectively. The weaning-herd-year was found to have a significant effect on the variation of body weights of bulls despite a 28-day adjustment period. Genetic correlations amongst body weights at different test days were high, ranging from 0.89 to 1.00. Heritability estimates were comparable to literature using multivariate models. Therefore, random regression model could be applied in the genetic evaluation of body weight of individually fed beef bulls in South Africa.

  5. Regression analysis for the social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Gordon, Rachel A

    2010-01-01

    The book provides graduate students in the social sciences with the basic skills that they need to estimate, interpret, present, and publish basic regression models using contemporary standards. Key features of the book include: interweaving the teaching of statistical concepts with examples developed for the course from publicly-available social science data or drawn from the literature. thorough integration of teaching statistical theory with teaching data processing and analysis. teaching of both SAS and Stata "side-by-side" and use of chapter exercises in which students practice programming and interpretation on the same data set and course exercises in which students can choose their own research questions and data set.

  6. RAWS II: A MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS PROGRAM,

    Science.gov (United States)

    This memorandum gives instructions for the use and operation of a revised version of RAWS, a multiple regression analysis program. The program...of preprocessed data, the directed retention of variable, listing of the matrix of the normal equations and its inverse, and the bypassing of the regression analysis to provide the input variable statistics only. (Author)

  7. Regression Analysis and the Sociological Imagination

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Maio, Fernando

    2014-01-01

    Regression analysis is an important aspect of most introductory statistics courses in sociology but is often presented in contexts divorced from the central concerns that bring students into the discipline. Consequently, we present five lesson ideas that emerge from a regression analysis of income inequality and mortality in the USA and Canada.

  8. Predictive Ability of Pender's Health Promotion Model for Physical Activity and Exercise in People with Spinal Cord Injuries: A Hierarchical Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keegan, John P.; Chan, Fong; Ditchman, Nicole; Chiu, Chung-Yi

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to validate Pender's Health Promotion Model (HPM) as a motivational model for exercise/physical activity self-management for people with spinal cord injuries (SCIs). Quantitative descriptive research design using hierarchical regression analysis (HRA) was used. A total of 126 individuals with SCI were recruited…

  9. Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

  10. Genetic analysis of somatic cell score in Danish dairy cattle using ramdom regression test-day model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elsaid, Reda; Sabry, Ayman; Lund, Mogens Sandø

    2011-01-01

    ,233 Danish Holstein cows, were extracted from the national milk recording database. Each data set was analyzed with random regression models using AI-REML. Fixed effects in all models were age at first calving, herd test day, days carrying calf, effects of germ plasm importation (e.g. additive breed effects......) and low between the beginning and the end of lactation. The estimated environmental correlations were lower than the genetic correlations, but the trends were similar. Based on test-day records, the accuracy of genetic evaluations for SCC should be improved when the variation in heritabilities...

  11. Variable importance in latent variable regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kvalheim, O.M.; Arneberg, R.; Bleie, O.; Rajalahti, T.; Smilde, A.K.; Westerhuis, J.A.

    2014-01-01

    The quality and practical usefulness of a regression model are a function of both interpretability and prediction performance. This work presents some new graphical tools for improved interpretation of latent variable regression models that can also assist in improved algorithms for variable

  12. Crime Modeling using Spatial Regression Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh Ahmar, Ansari; Adiatma; Kasim Aidid, M.

    2018-01-01

    Act of criminality in Indonesia increased both variety and quantity every year. As murder, rape, assault, vandalism, theft, fraud, fencing, and other cases that make people feel unsafe. Risk of society exposed to crime is the number of reported cases in the police institution. The higher of the number of reporter to the police institution then the number of crime in the region is increasing. In this research, modeling criminality in South Sulawesi, Indonesia with the dependent variable used is the society exposed to the risk of crime. Modelling done by area approach is the using Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) and Spatial Error Model (SEM) methods. The independent variable used is the population density, the number of poor population, GDP per capita, unemployment and the human development index (HDI). Based on the analysis using spatial regression can be shown that there are no dependencies spatial both lag or errors in South Sulawesi.

  13. [From clinical judgment to linear regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Pérez, Marcela; Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Talavera, Juan O

    2013-01-01

    When we think about mathematical models, such as linear regression model, we think that these terms are only used by those engaged in research, a notion that is far from the truth. Legendre described the first mathematical model in 1805, and Galton introduced the formal term in 1886. Linear regression is one of the most commonly used regression models in clinical practice. It is useful to predict or show the relationship between two or more variables as long as the dependent variable is quantitative and has normal distribution. Stated in another way, the regression is used to predict a measure based on the knowledge of at least one other variable. Linear regression has as it's first objective to determine the slope or inclination of the regression line: Y = a + bx, where "a" is the intercept or regression constant and it is equivalent to "Y" value when "X" equals 0 and "b" (also called slope) indicates the increase or decrease that occurs when the variable "x" increases or decreases in one unit. In the regression line, "b" is called regression coefficient. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) indicates the importance of independent variables in the outcome.

  14. Regression Models for Market-Shares

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birch, Kristina; Olsen, Jørgen Kai; Tjur, Tue

    2005-01-01

    On the background of a data set of weekly sales and prices for three brands of coffee, this paper discusses various regression models and their relation to the multiplicative competitive-interaction model (the MCI model, see Cooper 1988, 1993) for market-shares. Emphasis is put on the interpretat......On the background of a data set of weekly sales and prices for three brands of coffee, this paper discusses various regression models and their relation to the multiplicative competitive-interaction model (the MCI model, see Cooper 1988, 1993) for market-shares. Emphasis is put...... on the interpretation of the parameters in relation to models for the total sales based on discrete choice models.Key words and phrases. MCI model, discrete choice model, market-shares, price elasitcity, regression model....

  15. Categorical regression dose-response modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The goal of this training is to provide participants with training on the use of the U.S. EPA’s Categorical Regression soft¬ware (CatReg) and its application to risk assessment. Categorical regression fits mathematical models to toxicity data that have been assigned ord...

  16. The use of nonlinear regression analysis for integrating pollutant concentration measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling for source term estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, L.L.; Freis, R.P.; Peters, L.G.; Gudiksen, P.H.; Pitovranov, S.E.

    1993-01-01

    The accuracy associated with assessing the environmental consequences of an accidental release of radioactivity is highly dependent on the knowledge of the source term characteristics, which are generally poorly known. The development of an automated numerical technique that integrates the radiological measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling for more accurate source term estimation is reported. Often, this process of parameter estimation is performed by an emergency response assessor, who takes an intelligent first guess at the model parameters, then, comparing the model results with whatever measurements are available, makes an intuitive, informed next guess of the model parameters. This process may be repeated any number of times until the assessor feels that the model results are reasonable in terms of the measured observations. A new approach, based on a nonlinear least-squares regression scheme coupled with the existing Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability three-dimensional atmospheric dispersion models, is to supplement the assessor's intuition with automated mathematical methods that do not significantly increase the response time of the existing predictive models. The viability of the approach is evaluated by estimation of the known SF 6 tracer release rates associated with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Transport Studies tracer experiments conducted at the Savannah River Laboratory during 1983. These 19 experiments resulted in 14 successful, separate tracer releases with sampling of the tracer plumes along the cross-plume arc situated ∼30 km from the release site

  17. Remote sensing and GIS-based landslide hazard analysis and cross-validation using multivariate logistic regression model on three test areas in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2010-05-01

    This paper presents the results of the cross-validation of a multivariate logistic regression model using remote sensing data and GIS for landslide hazard analysis on the Penang, Cameron, and Selangor areas in Malaysia. Landslide locations in the study areas were identified by interpreting aerial photographs and satellite images, supported by field surveys. SPOT 5 and Landsat TM satellite imagery were used to map landcover and vegetation index, respectively. Maps of topography, soil type, lineaments and land cover were constructed from the spatial datasets. Ten factors which influence landslide occurrence, i.e., slope, aspect, curvature, distance from drainage, lithology, distance from lineaments, soil type, landcover, rainfall precipitation, and normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi), were extracted from the spatial database and the logistic regression coefficient of each factor was computed. Then the landslide hazard was analysed using the multivariate logistic regression coefficients derived not only from the data for the respective area but also using the logistic regression coefficients calculated from each of the other two areas (nine hazard maps in all) as a cross-validation of the model. For verification of the model, the results of the analyses were then compared with the field-verified landslide locations. Among the three cases of the application of logistic regression coefficient in the same study area, the case of Selangor based on the Selangor logistic regression coefficients showed the highest accuracy (94%), where as Penang based on the Penang coefficients showed the lowest accuracy (86%). Similarly, among the six cases from the cross application of logistic regression coefficient in other two areas, the case of Selangor based on logistic coefficient of Cameron showed highest (90%) prediction accuracy where as the case of Penang based on the Selangor logistic regression coefficients showed the lowest accuracy (79%). Qualitatively, the cross

  18. Landslide-susceptibility analysis using light detection and ranging-derived digital elevation models and logistic regression models: a case study in Mizunami City, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Liang-Jie; Sawada, Kazuhide; Moriguchi, Shuji

    2013-01-01

    To mitigate the damage caused by landslide disasters, different mathematical models have been applied to predict landslide spatial distribution characteristics. Although some researchers have achieved excellent results around the world, few studies take the spatial resolution of the database into account. Four types of digital elevation model (DEM) ranging from 2 to 20 m derived from light detection and ranging technology to analyze landslide susceptibility in Mizunami City, Gifu Prefecture, Japan, are presented. Fifteen landslide-causative factors are considered using a logistic-regression approach to create models for landslide potential analysis. Pre-existing landslide bodies are used to evaluate the performance of the four models. The results revealed that the 20-m model had the highest classification accuracy (71.9%), whereas the 2-m model had the lowest value (68.7%). In the 2-m model, 89.4% of the landslide bodies fit in the medium to very high categories. For the 20-m model, only 83.3% of the landslide bodies were concentrated in the medium to very high classes. When the cell size decreases from 20 to 2 m, the area under the relative operative characteristic increases from 0.68 to 0.77. Therefore, higher-resolution DEMs would provide better results for landslide-susceptibility mapping.

  19. Prediction of unwanted pregnancies using logistic regression, probit regression and discriminant analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimzadeh, Farzad; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Vahabi, Nasim; Almasian, Mohammad; Bakhteyar, Katayoon

    2015-01-01

    Unwanted pregnancy not intended by at least one of the parents has undesirable consequences for the family and the society. In the present study, three classification models were used and compared to predict unwanted pregnancies in an urban population. In this cross-sectional study, 887 pregnant mothers referring to health centers in Khorramabad, Iran, in 2012 were selected by the stratified and cluster sampling; relevant variables were measured and for prediction of unwanted pregnancy, logistic regression, discriminant analysis, and probit regression models and SPSS software version 21 were used. To compare these models, indicators such as sensitivity, specificity, the area under the ROC curve, and the percentage of correct predictions were used. The prevalence of unwanted pregnancies was 25.3%. The logistic and probit regression models indicated that parity and pregnancy spacing, contraceptive methods, household income and number of living male children were related to unwanted pregnancy. The performance of the models based on the area under the ROC curve was 0.735, 0.733, and 0.680 for logistic regression, probit regression, and linear discriminant analysis, respectively. Given the relatively high prevalence of unwanted pregnancies in Khorramabad, it seems necessary to revise family planning programs. Despite the similar accuracy of the models, if the researcher is interested in the interpretability of the results, the use of the logistic regression model is recommended.

  20. Regression analysis for the social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Gordon, Rachel A

    2015-01-01

    Provides graduate students in the social sciences with the basic skills they need to estimate, interpret, present, and publish basic regression models using contemporary standards. Key features of the book include: interweaving the teaching of statistical concepts with examples developed for the course from publicly-available social science data or drawn from the literature. thorough integration of teaching statistical theory with teaching data processing and analysis. teaching of Stata and use of chapter exercises in which students practice programming and interpretation on the same data set. A separate set of exercises allows students to select a data set to apply the concepts learned in each chapter to a research question of interest to them, all updated for this edition.

  1. Entrepreneurial intention modeling using hierarchical multiple regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Jeger

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study is to identify the contribution of effectuation dimensions to the predictive power of the entrepreneurial intention model over and above that which can be accounted for by other predictors selected and confirmed in previous studies. As is often the case in social and behavioral studies, some variables are likely to be highly correlated with each other. Therefore, the relative amount of variance in the criterion variable explained by each of the predictors depends on several factors such as the order of variable entry and sample specifics. The results show the modest predictive power of two dimensions of effectuation prior to the introduction of the theory of planned behavior elements. The article highlights the main advantages of applying hierarchical regression in social sciences as well as in the specific context of entrepreneurial intention formation, and addresses some of the potential pitfalls that this type of analysis entails.

  2. Genetic Analysis of Milk Yield Using Random Regression Test Day Model in Tehran Province Holstein Dairy Cow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Seyeddokht

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In this research a random regression test day model was used to estimate heritability values and calculation genetic correlations between test day milk records. a total of 140357 monthly test day milk records belonging to 28292 first lactation Holstein cattle(trice time a day milking distributed in 165 herd and calved from 2001 to 2010 belonging to the herds of Tehran province were used. The fixed effects of herd-year-month of calving as contemporary group and age at calving and Holstein gene percentage as covariate were fitted. Orthogonal legendre polynomial with a 4th-order was implemented to take account of genetic and environmental aspects of milk production over the course of lactation. RRM using Legendre polynomials as base functions appears to be the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. The results showed that the average of heritability for the second half of lactation period was higher than that of the first half. The heritability value for the first month was lowest (0.117 and for the eighth month of the lactation was highest (0.230 compared to the other months of lactation. Because of genetic variation was increased gradually, and residual variance was high in the first months of lactation, heritabilities were different over the course of lactation. The RRMs with a higher number of parameters were more useful to describe the genetic variation of test-day milk yield throughout the lactation. In this research estimation of genetic parameters, and calculation genetic correlations were implemented by random regression test day model, therefore using this method is the exact way to take account of parameters rather than the other ways.

  3. Order-Constrained Reference Priors with Implications for Bayesian Isotonic Regression, Analysis of Covariance and Spatial Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Maozhen

    Selecting an appropriate prior distribution is a fundamental issue in Bayesian Statistics. In this dissertation, under the framework provided by Berger and Bernardo, I derive the reference priors for several models which include: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)/Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) models with a categorical variable under common ordering constraints, the conditionally autoregressive (CAR) models and the simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models with a spatial autoregression parameter rho considered. The performances of reference priors for ANOVA/ANCOVA models are evaluated by simulation studies with comparisons to Jeffreys' prior and Least Squares Estimation (LSE). The priors are then illustrated in a Bayesian model of the "Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in New Mexico" data, where the relationship between the type 2 diabetes risk (through Hemoglobin A1c) and different smoking levels is investigated. In both simulation studies and real data set modeling, the reference priors that incorporate internal order information show good performances and can be used as default priors. The reference priors for the CAR and SAR models are also illustrated in the "1999 SAT State Average Verbal Scores" data with a comparison to a Uniform prior distribution. Due to the complexity of the reference priors for both CAR and SAR models, only a portion (12 states in the Midwest) of the original data set is considered. The reference priors can give a different marginal posterior distribution compared to a Uniform prior, which provides an alternative for prior specifications for areal data in Spatial statistics.

  4. Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data.

  5. Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erol, Hamza

    2016-01-01

    Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model. PMID:27999611

  6. Testing homogeneity in Weibull-regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolfarine, Heleno; Valença, Dione M

    2005-10-01

    In survival studies with families or geographical units it may be of interest testing whether such groups are homogeneous for given explanatory variables. In this paper we consider score type tests for group homogeneity based on a mixing model in which the group effect is modelled as a random variable. As opposed to hazard-based frailty models, this model presents survival times that conditioned on the random effect, has an accelerated failure time representation. The test statistics requires only estimation of the conventional regression model without the random effect and does not require specifying the distribution of the random effect. The tests are derived for a Weibull regression model and in the uncensored situation, a closed form is obtained for the test statistic. A simulation study is used for comparing the power of the tests. The proposed tests are applied to real data sets with censored data.

  7. A comparative study of multiple regression analysis and back ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abhijit Sarkar

    artificial neural network (ANN) models to predict weld bead geometry and HAZ width in submerged arc welding ... Keywords. Submerged arc welding (SAW); multi-regression analysis (MRA); artificial neural network ..... Degree of freedom.

  8. Mixed-effects regression models in linguistics

    CERN Document Server

    Heylen, Kris; Geeraerts, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    When data consist of grouped observations or clusters, and there is a risk that measurements within the same group are not independent, group-specific random effects can be added to a regression model in order to account for such within-group associations. Regression models that contain such group-specific random effects are called mixed-effects regression models, or simply mixed models. Mixed models are a versatile tool that can handle both balanced and unbalanced datasets and that can also be applied when several layers of grouping are present in the data; these layers can either be nested or crossed.  In linguistics, as in many other fields, the use of mixed models has gained ground rapidly over the last decade. This methodological evolution enables us to build more sophisticated and arguably more realistic models, but, due to its technical complexity, also introduces new challenges. This volume brings together a number of promising new evolutions in the use of mixed models in linguistics, but also addres...

  9. Development of a predictive model for distribution coefficient (Kd) of 13'7Cs and 60Co in marine sediments using multiple linear regression analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Ajay; Ravi, P.M.; Guneshwar, S.L.; Rout, Sabyasachi; Mishra, Manish K.; Pulhani, Vandana; Tripathi, R.M.

    2018-01-01

    Numerous common methods (batch laboratory, the column laboratory, field-batch method, field modeling and K 0c method) are used frequently for determination of K d values. Recently, multiple regression models are considered as new best estimates for predicting the K d of radionuclides in the environment. It is also well known fact that the K d value is highly influenced by physico-chemical properties of sediment. Due to the significant variability in influencing parameters, the measured K d values can range over several orders of magnitude under different environmental conditions. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model for K d values of 137 Cs and 60 Co based on the sediment properties using multiple linear regression analysis

  10. Regression modeling methods, theory, and computation with SAS

    CERN Document Server

    Panik, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Regression Modeling: Methods, Theory, and Computation with SAS provides an introduction to a diverse assortment of regression techniques using SAS to solve a wide variety of regression problems. The author fully documents the SAS programs and thoroughly explains the output produced by the programs.The text presents the popular ordinary least squares (OLS) approach before introducing many alternative regression methods. It covers nonparametric regression, logistic regression (including Poisson regression), Bayesian regression, robust regression, fuzzy regression, random coefficients regression,

  11. Identification of Influential Points in a Linear Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Grosz

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the detection and identification of influential points in the linear regression model. Three methods of detection of outliers and leverage points are described. These procedures can also be used for one-sample (independentdatasets. This paper briefly describes theoretical aspects of several robust methods as well. Robust statistics is a powerful tool to increase the reliability and accuracy of statistical modelling and data analysis. A simulation model of the simple linear regression is presented.

  12. Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Guangfei; Li, Xianneng; Wang, Jianliang; Lian, Lian; Ma, Tieju

    2015-01-01

    Numerous models have been proposed to forecast the future trends of oil production and almost all of them are based on some predefined assumptions with various uncertainties. In this study, we propose a novel data-driven approach that uses symbolic regression to model oil production. We validate our approach on both synthetic and real data, and the results prove that symbolic regression could effectively identify the true models beneath the oil production data and also make reliable predictions. Symbolic regression indicates that world oil production will peak in 2021, which broadly agrees with other techniques used by researchers. Our results also show that the rate of decline after the peak is almost half the rate of increase before the peak, and it takes nearly 12 years to drop 4% from the peak. These predictions are more optimistic than those in several other reports, and the smoother decline will provide the world, especially the developing countries, with more time to orchestrate mitigation plans. -- Highlights: •A data-driven approach has been shown to be effective at modeling the oil production. •The Hubbert model could be discovered automatically from data. •The peak of world oil production is predicted to appear in 2021. •The decline rate after peak is half of the increase rate before peak. •Oil production projected to decline 4% post-peak

  13. Predicting and Modelling of Survival Data when Cox's Regression Model does not hold

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2002-01-01

    Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; competing risk; Cox regression; flexible modeling; goodness of fit; prediction of survival; survival analysis; time-varying effects......Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; competing risk; Cox regression; flexible modeling; goodness of fit; prediction of survival; survival analysis; time-varying effects...

  14. Geographically weighted regression model on poverty indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slamet, I.; Nugroho, N. F. T. A.; Muslich

    2017-12-01

    In this research, we applied geographically weighted regression (GWR) for analyzing the poverty in Central Java. We consider Gaussian Kernel as weighted function. The GWR uses the diagonal matrix resulted from calculating kernel Gaussian function as a weighted function in the regression model. The kernel weights is used to handle spatial effects on the data so that a model can be obtained for each location. The purpose of this paper is to model of poverty percentage data in Central Java province using GWR with Gaussian kernel weighted function and to determine the influencing factors in each regency/city in Central Java province. Based on the research, we obtained geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel weighted function on poverty percentage data in Central Java province. We found that percentage of population working as farmers, population growth rate, percentage of households with regular sanitation, and BPJS beneficiaries are the variables that affect the percentage of poverty in Central Java province. In this research, we found the determination coefficient R2 are 68.64%. There are two categories of district which are influenced by different of significance factors.

  15. Robust Mediation Analysis Based on Median Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2014-01-01

    Mediation analysis has many applications in psychology and the social sciences. The most prevalent methods typically assume that the error distribution is normal and homoscedastic. However, this assumption may rarely be met in practice, which can affect the validity of the mediation analysis. To address this problem, we propose robust mediation analysis based on median regression. Our approach is robust to various departures from the assumption of homoscedasticity and normality, including heavy-tailed, skewed, contaminated, and heteroscedastic distributions. Simulation studies show that under these circumstances, the proposed method is more efficient and powerful than standard mediation analysis. We further extend the proposed robust method to multilevel mediation analysis, and demonstrate through simulation studies that the new approach outperforms the standard multilevel mediation analysis. We illustrate the proposed method using data from a program designed to increase reemployment and enhance mental health of job seekers. PMID:24079925

  16. Background stratified Poisson regression analysis of cohort data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David B; Langholz, Bryan

    2012-03-01

    Background stratified Poisson regression is an approach that has been used in the analysis of data derived from a variety of epidemiologically important studies of radiation-exposed populations, including uranium miners, nuclear industry workers, and atomic bomb survivors. We describe a novel approach to fit Poisson regression models that adjust for a set of covariates through background stratification while directly estimating the radiation-disease association of primary interest. The approach makes use of an expression for the Poisson likelihood that treats the coefficients for stratum-specific indicator variables as 'nuisance' variables and avoids the need to explicitly estimate the coefficients for these stratum-specific parameters. Log-linear models, as well as other general relative rate models, are accommodated. This approach is illustrated using data from the Life Span Study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors and data from a study of underground uranium miners. The point estimate and confidence interval obtained from this 'conditional' regression approach are identical to the values obtained using unconditional Poisson regression with model terms for each background stratum. Moreover, it is shown that the proposed approach allows estimation of background stratified Poisson regression models of non-standard form, such as models that parameterize latency effects, as well as regression models in which the number of strata is large, thereby overcoming the limitations of previously available statistical software for fitting background stratified Poisson regression models.

  17. Background stratified Poisson regression analysis of cohort data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, David B.; Langholz, Bryan

    2012-01-01

    Background stratified Poisson regression is an approach that has been used in the analysis of data derived from a variety of epidemiologically important studies of radiation-exposed populations, including uranium miners, nuclear industry workers, and atomic bomb survivors. We describe a novel approach to fit Poisson regression models that adjust for a set of covariates through background stratification while directly estimating the radiation-disease association of primary interest. The approach makes use of an expression for the Poisson likelihood that treats the coefficients for stratum-specific indicator variables as 'nuisance' variables and avoids the need to explicitly estimate the coefficients for these stratum-specific parameters. Log-linear models, as well as other general relative rate models, are accommodated. This approach is illustrated using data from the Life Span Study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors and data from a study of underground uranium miners. The point estimate and confidence interval obtained from this 'conditional' regression approach are identical to the values obtained using unconditional Poisson regression with model terms for each background stratum. Moreover, it is shown that the proposed approach allows estimation of background stratified Poisson regression models of non-standard form, such as models that parameterize latency effects, as well as regression models in which the number of strata is large, thereby overcoming the limitations of previously available statistical software for fitting background stratified Poisson regression models. (orig.)

  18. Least Squares Adjustment: Linear and Nonlinear Weighted Regression Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2007-01-01

    This note primarily describes the mathematics of least squares regression analysis as it is often used in geodesy including land surveying and satellite positioning applications. In these fields regression is often termed adjustment. The note also contains a couple of typical land surveying...... and satellite positioning application examples. In these application areas we are typically interested in the parameters in the model typically 2- or 3-D positions and not in predictive modelling which is often the main concern in other regression analysis applications. Adjustment is often used to obtain...... the clock error) and to obtain estimates of the uncertainty with which the position is determined. Regression analysis is used in many other fields of application both in the natural, the technical and the social sciences. Examples may be curve fitting, calibration, establishing relationships between...

  19. Research and analyze of physical health using multiple regression analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Kyi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper represents the research which is trying to create a mathematical model of the "healthy people" using the method of regression analysis. The factors are the physical parameters of the person (such as heart rate, lung capacity, blood pressure, breath holding, weight height coefficient, flexibility of the spine, muscles of the shoulder belt, abdominal muscles, squatting, etc.., and the response variable is an indicator of physical working capacity. After performing multiple regression analysis, obtained useful multiple regression models that can predict the physical performance of boys the aged of fourteen to seventeen years. This paper represents the development of regression model for the sixteen year old boys and analyzed results.

  20. Support vector regression and artificial neural network models for stability indicating analysis of mebeverine hydrochloride and sulpiride mixtures in pharmaceutical preparation: A comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naguib, Ibrahim A.; Darwish, Hany W.

    2012-02-01

    A comparison between support vector regression (SVR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) multivariate regression methods is established showing the underlying algorithm for each and making a comparison between them to indicate the inherent advantages and limitations. In this paper we compare SVR to ANN with and without variable selection procedure (genetic algorithm (GA)). To project the comparison in a sensible way, the methods are used for the stability indicating quantitative analysis of mixtures of mebeverine hydrochloride and sulpiride in binary mixtures as a case study in presence of their reported impurities and degradation products (summing up to 6 components) in raw materials and pharmaceutical dosage form via handling the UV spectral data. For proper analysis, a 6 factor 5 level experimental design was established resulting in a training set of 25 mixtures containing different ratios of the interfering species. An independent test set consisting of 5 mixtures was used to validate the prediction ability of the suggested models. The proposed methods (linear SVR (without GA) and linear GA-ANN) were successfully applied to the analysis of pharmaceutical tablets containing mebeverine hydrochloride and sulpiride mixtures. The results manifest the problem of nonlinearity and how models like the SVR and ANN can handle it. The methods indicate the ability of the mentioned multivariate calibration models to deconvolute the highly overlapped UV spectra of the 6 components' mixtures, yet using cheap and easy to handle instruments like the UV spectrophotometer.

  1. Bayesian Inference of a Multivariate Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marick S. Sinay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We explore Bayesian inference of a multivariate linear regression model with use of a flexible prior for the covariance structure. The commonly adopted Bayesian setup involves the conjugate prior, multivariate normal distribution for the regression coefficients and inverse Wishart specification for the covariance matrix. Here we depart from this approach and propose a novel Bayesian estimator for the covariance. A multivariate normal prior for the unique elements of the matrix logarithm of the covariance matrix is considered. Such structure allows for a richer class of prior distributions for the covariance, with respect to strength of beliefs in prior location hyperparameters, as well as the added ability, to model potential correlation amongst the covariance structure. The posterior moments of all relevant parameters of interest are calculated based upon numerical results via a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. The Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs algorithm is invoked to account for the construction of a proposal density that closely matches the shape of the target posterior distribution. As an application of the proposed technique, we investigate a multiple regression based upon the 1980 High School and Beyond Survey.

  2. General regression and representation model for classification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjun Qian

    Full Text Available Recently, the regularized coding-based classification methods (e.g. SRC and CRC show a great potential for pattern classification. However, most existing coding methods assume that the representation residuals are uncorrelated. In real-world applications, this assumption does not hold. In this paper, we take account of the correlations of the representation residuals and develop a general regression and representation model (GRR for classification. GRR not only has advantages of CRC, but also takes full use of the prior information (e.g. the correlations between representation residuals and representation coefficients and the specific information (weight matrix of image pixels to enhance the classification performance. GRR uses the generalized Tikhonov regularization and K Nearest Neighbors to learn the prior information from the training data. Meanwhile, the specific information is obtained by using an iterative algorithm to update the feature (or image pixel weights of the test sample. With the proposed model as a platform, we design two classifiers: basic general regression and representation classifier (B-GRR and robust general regression and representation classifier (R-GRR. The experimental results demonstrate the performance advantages of proposed methods over state-of-the-art algorithms.

  3. Discriminating between adaptive and carcinogenic liver hypertrophy in rat studies using logistic ridge regression analysis of toxicogenomic data: The mode of action and predictive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shujie; Kawamoto, Taisuke; Morita, Osamu; Yoshinari, Kouichi; Honda, Hiroshi

    2017-03-01

    Chemical exposure often results in liver hypertrophy in animal tests, characterized by increased liver weight, hepatocellular hypertrophy, and/or cell proliferation. While most of these changes are considered adaptive responses, there is concern that they may be associated with carcinogenesis. In this study, we have employed a toxicogenomic approach using a logistic ridge regression model to identify genes responsible for liver hypertrophy and hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis and to develop a predictive model for assessing hypertrophy-inducing compounds. Logistic regression models have previously been used in the quantification of epidemiological risk factors. DNA microarray data from the Toxicogenomics Project-Genomics Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System were used to identify hypertrophy-related genes that are expressed differently in hypertrophy induced by carcinogens and non-carcinogens. Data were collected for 134 chemicals (72 non-hypertrophy-inducing chemicals, 27 hypertrophy-inducing non-carcinogenic chemicals, and 15 hypertrophy-inducing carcinogenic compounds). After applying logistic ridge regression analysis, 35 genes for liver hypertrophy (e.g., Acot1 and Abcc3) and 13 genes for hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis (e.g., Asns and Gpx2) were selected. The predictive models built using these genes were 94.8% and 82.7% accurate, respectively. Pathway analysis of the genes indicates that, aside from a xenobiotic metabolism-related pathway as an adaptive response for liver hypertrophy, amino acid biosynthesis and oxidative responses appear to be involved in hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis. Early detection and toxicogenomic characterization of liver hypertrophy using our models may be useful for predicting carcinogenesis. In addition, the identified genes provide novel insight into discrimination between adverse hypertrophy associated with carcinogenesis and adaptive hypertrophy in risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Multiple regression and beyond an introduction to multiple regression and structural equation modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Keith, Timothy Z

    2014-01-01

    Multiple Regression and Beyond offers a conceptually oriented introduction to multiple regression (MR) analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM), along with analyses that flow naturally from those methods. By focusing on the concepts and purposes of MR and related methods, rather than the derivation and calculation of formulae, this book introduces material to students more clearly, and in a less threatening way. In addition to illuminating content necessary for coursework, the accessibility of this approach means students are more likely to be able to conduct research using MR or SEM--and more likely to use the methods wisely. Covers both MR and SEM, while explaining their relevance to one another Also includes path analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and latent growth modeling Figures and tables throughout provide examples and illustrate key concepts and techniques For additional resources, please visit: http://tzkeith.com/.

  5. Confidence bands for inverse regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo

    2010-01-01

    We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract

  6. Research on Influence and Prediction Model of Urban Traffic Link Tunnel curvature on Fire Temperature Based on Pyrosim--SPSS Multiple Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao Ju; Yao, Kun; Dai, Jun Yu; Song, Yun Long

    2018-05-01

    The underground space, also known as the “fourth dimension” of the city, reflects the efficient use of urban development intensive. Urban traffic link tunnel is a typical underground limited-length space. Due to the geographical location, the special structure of space and the curvature of the tunnel, high-temperature smoke can easily form the phenomenon of “smoke turning” and the fire risk is extremely high. This paper takes an urban traffic link tunnel as an example to focus on the relationship between curvature and the temperature near the fire source, and use the pyrosim built different curvature fire model to analyze the influence of curvature on the temperature of the fire, then using SPSS Multivariate regression analysis simulate curvature of the tunnel and fire temperature data. Finally, a prediction model of urban traffic link tunnel curvature on fire temperature was proposed. The regression model analysis and test show that the curvature is negatively correlated with the tunnel temperature. This model is feasible and can provide a theoretical reference for the urban traffic link tunnel fire protection design and the preparation of the evacuation plan. And also, it provides some reference for other related curved tunnel curvature design and smoke control measures.

  7. Discriminating between adaptive and carcinogenic liver hypertrophy in rat studies using logistic ridge regression analysis of toxicogenomic data: The mode of action and predictive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Shujie; Kawamoto, Taisuke; Morita, Osamu; Yoshinari, Kouichi; Honda, Hiroshi

    2017-01-01

    Chemical exposure often results in liver hypertrophy in animal tests, characterized by increased liver weight, hepatocellular hypertrophy, and/or cell proliferation. While most of these changes are considered adaptive responses, there is concern that they may be associated with carcinogenesis. In this study, we have employed a toxicogenomic approach using a logistic ridge regression model to identify genes responsible for liver hypertrophy and hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis and to develop a predictive model for assessing hypertrophy-inducing compounds. Logistic regression models have previously been used in the quantification of epidemiological risk factors. DNA microarray data from the Toxicogenomics Project-Genomics Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System were used to identify hypertrophy-related genes that are expressed differently in hypertrophy induced by carcinogens and non-carcinogens. Data were collected for 134 chemicals (72 non-hypertrophy-inducing chemicals, 27 hypertrophy-inducing non-carcinogenic chemicals, and 15 hypertrophy-inducing carcinogenic compounds). After applying logistic ridge regression analysis, 35 genes for liver hypertrophy (e.g., Acot1 and Abcc3) and 13 genes for hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis (e.g., Asns and Gpx2) were selected. The predictive models built using these genes were 94.8% and 82.7% accurate, respectively. Pathway analysis of the genes indicates that, aside from a xenobiotic metabolism-related pathway as an adaptive response for liver hypertrophy, amino acid biosynthesis and oxidative responses appear to be involved in hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis. Early detection and toxicogenomic characterization of liver hypertrophy using our models may be useful for predicting carcinogenesis. In addition, the identified genes provide novel insight into discrimination between adverse hypertrophy associated with carcinogenesis and adaptive hypertrophy in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Hypertrophy (H) and hypertrophic

  8. Discriminating between adaptive and carcinogenic liver hypertrophy in rat studies using logistic ridge regression analysis of toxicogenomic data: The mode of action and predictive models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Shujie; Kawamoto, Taisuke; Morita, Osamu [R& D, Safety Science Research, Kao Corporation, Tochigi (Japan); Yoshinari, Kouichi [Department of Molecular Toxicology, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Shizuoka, Shizuoka (Japan); Honda, Hiroshi, E-mail: honda.hiroshi@kao.co.jp [R& D, Safety Science Research, Kao Corporation, Tochigi (Japan)

    2017-03-01

    Chemical exposure often results in liver hypertrophy in animal tests, characterized by increased liver weight, hepatocellular hypertrophy, and/or cell proliferation. While most of these changes are considered adaptive responses, there is concern that they may be associated with carcinogenesis. In this study, we have employed a toxicogenomic approach using a logistic ridge regression model to identify genes responsible for liver hypertrophy and hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis and to develop a predictive model for assessing hypertrophy-inducing compounds. Logistic regression models have previously been used in the quantification of epidemiological risk factors. DNA microarray data from the Toxicogenomics Project-Genomics Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System were used to identify hypertrophy-related genes that are expressed differently in hypertrophy induced by carcinogens and non-carcinogens. Data were collected for 134 chemicals (72 non-hypertrophy-inducing chemicals, 27 hypertrophy-inducing non-carcinogenic chemicals, and 15 hypertrophy-inducing carcinogenic compounds). After applying logistic ridge regression analysis, 35 genes for liver hypertrophy (e.g., Acot1 and Abcc3) and 13 genes for hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis (e.g., Asns and Gpx2) were selected. The predictive models built using these genes were 94.8% and 82.7% accurate, respectively. Pathway analysis of the genes indicates that, aside from a xenobiotic metabolism-related pathway as an adaptive response for liver hypertrophy, amino acid biosynthesis and oxidative responses appear to be involved in hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis. Early detection and toxicogenomic characterization of liver hypertrophy using our models may be useful for predicting carcinogenesis. In addition, the identified genes provide novel insight into discrimination between adverse hypertrophy associated with carcinogenesis and adaptive hypertrophy in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Hypertrophy (H) and hypertrophic

  9. Multitask Quantile Regression under the Transnormal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jianqing; Xue, Lingzhou; Zou, Hui

    2016-01-01

    We consider estimating multi-task quantile regression under the transnormal model, with focus on high-dimensional setting. We derive a surprisingly simple closed-form solution through rank-based covariance regularization. In particular, we propose the rank-based ℓ 1 penalization with positive definite constraints for estimating sparse covariance matrices, and the rank-based banded Cholesky decomposition regularization for estimating banded precision matrices. By taking advantage of alternating direction method of multipliers, nearest correlation matrix projection is introduced that inherits sampling properties of the unprojected one. Our work combines strengths of quantile regression and rank-based covariance regularization to simultaneously deal with nonlinearity and nonnormality for high-dimensional regression. Furthermore, the proposed method strikes a good balance between robustness and efficiency, achieves the "oracle"-like convergence rate, and provides the provable prediction interval under the high-dimensional setting. The finite-sample performance of the proposed method is also examined. The performance of our proposed rank-based method is demonstrated in a real application to analyze the protein mass spectroscopy data.

  10. A Static Model of Abiotic Predictors and Forest Ecosystem Receptor Designed Using Dimensionality Reduction and Regression Analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Samec, P.; Rychtecká, P.; Tuček, P.; Bojko, J.; Zapletal, Miloš; Cudlín, Pavel

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 2 (2016), s. 259-274 ISSN 1392-1355 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : forest state monitoring * EMEP-LRTAP * floodplain * mountain forests * canonical correlation analysis Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.635, year: 2016

  11. [Spatial heterogeneity in body condition of small yellow croaker in Yellow Sea and East China Sea based on mixed-effects model and quantile regression analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zun-Lei; Yuan, Xing-Wei; Yan, Li-Ping; Yang, Lin-Lin; Cheng, Jia-Hua

    2013-09-01

    By using the 2008-2010 investigation data about the body condition of small yellow croaker in the offshore waters of southern Yellow Sea (SYS), open waters of northern East China Sea (NECS), and offshore waters of middle East China Sea (MECS), this paper analyzed the spatial heterogeneity of body length-body mass of juvenile and adult small yellow croakers by the statistical approaches of mean regression model and quantile regression model. The results showed that the residual standard errors from the analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and the linear mixed-effects model were similar, and those from the simple linear regression were the highest. For the juvenile small yellow croakers, their mean body mass in SYS and NECS estimated by the mixed-effects mean regression model was higher than the overall average mass across the three regions, while the mean body mass in MECS was below the overall average. For the adult small yellow croakers, their mean body mass in NECS was higher than the overall average, while the mean body mass in SYS and MECS was below the overall average. The results from quantile regression indicated the substantial differences in the allometric relationships of juvenile small yellow croakers between SYS, NECS, and MECS, with the estimated mean exponent of the allometric relationship in SYS being 2.85, and the interquartile range being from 2.63 to 2.96, which indicated the heterogeneity of body form. The results from ANCOVA showed that the allometric body length-body mass relationships were significantly different between the 25th and 75th percentile exponent values (F=6.38, df=1737, P<0.01) and the 25th percentile and median exponent values (F=2.35, df=1737, P=0.039). The relationship was marginally different between the median and 75th percentile exponent values (F=2.21, df=1737, P=0.051). The estimated body length-body mass exponent of adult small yellow croakers in SYS was 3.01 (10th and 95th percentiles = 2.77 and 3.1, respectively). The

  12. Wavelet regression model in forecasting crude oil price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, Mohd Helmie; Shabri, Ani

    2017-05-01

    This study presents the performance of wavelet multiple linear regression (WMLR) technique in daily crude oil forecasting. WMLR model was developed by integrating the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The original time series was decomposed to sub-time series with different scales by wavelet theory. Correlation analysis was conducted to assist in the selection of optimal decomposed components as inputs for the WMLR model. The daily WTI crude oil price series has been used in this study to test the prediction capability of the proposed model. The forecasting performance of WMLR model were also compared with regular multiple linear regression (MLR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) using root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE). Based on the experimental results, it appears that the WMLR model performs better than the other forecasting technique tested in this study.

  13. Neighborhood social capital and crime victimization: comparison of spatial regression analysis and hierarchical regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagi, Daisuke; Ikeda, Ken'ichi; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2012-11-01

    Crime is an important determinant of public health outcomes, including quality of life, mental well-being, and health behavior. A body of research has documented the association between community social capital and crime victimization. The association between social capital and crime victimization has been examined at multiple levels of spatial aggregation, ranging from entire countries, to states, metropolitan areas, counties, and neighborhoods. In multilevel analysis, the spatial boundaries at level 2 are most often drawn from administrative boundaries (e.g., Census tracts in the U.S.). One problem with adopting administrative definitions of neighborhoods is that it ignores spatial spillover. We conducted a study of social capital and crime victimization in one ward of Tokyo city, using a spatial Durbin model with an inverse-distance weighting matrix that assigned each respondent a unique level of "exposure" to social capital based on all other residents' perceptions. The study is based on a postal questionnaire sent to 20-69 years old residents of Arakawa Ward, Tokyo. The response rate was 43.7%. We examined the contextual influence of generalized trust, perceptions of reciprocity, two types of social network variables, as well as two principal components of social capital (constructed from the above four variables). Our outcome measure was self-reported crime victimization in the last five years. In the spatial Durbin model, we found that neighborhood generalized trust, reciprocity, supportive networks and two principal components of social capital were each inversely associated with crime victimization. By contrast, a multilevel regression performed with the same data (using administrative neighborhood boundaries) found generally null associations between neighborhood social capital and crime. Spatial regression methods may be more appropriate for investigating the contextual influence of social capital in homogeneous cultural settings such as Japan. Copyright

  14. Linear regression and sensitivity analysis in nuclear reactor design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Akansha; Tsvetkov, Pavel V.; McClarren, Ryan G.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Presented a benchmark for the applicability of linear regression to complex systems. • Applied linear regression to a nuclear reactor power system. • Performed neutronics, thermal–hydraulics, and energy conversion using Brayton’s cycle for the design of a GCFBR. • Performed detailed sensitivity analysis to a set of parameters in a nuclear reactor power system. • Modeled and developed reactor design using MCNP, regression using R, and thermal–hydraulics in Java. - Abstract: The paper presents a general strategy applicable for sensitivity analysis (SA), and uncertainity quantification analysis (UA) of parameters related to a nuclear reactor design. This work also validates the use of linear regression (LR) for predictive analysis in a nuclear reactor design. The analysis helps to determine the parameters on which a LR model can be fit for predictive analysis. For those parameters, a regression surface is created based on trial data and predictions are made using this surface. A general strategy of SA to determine and identify the influential parameters those affect the operation of the reactor is mentioned. Identification of design parameters and validation of linearity assumption for the application of LR of reactor design based on a set of tests is performed. The testing methods used to determine the behavior of the parameters can be used as a general strategy for UA, and SA of nuclear reactor models, and thermal hydraulics calculations. A design of a gas cooled fast breeder reactor (GCFBR), with thermal–hydraulics, and energy transfer has been used for the demonstration of this method. MCNP6 is used to simulate the GCFBR design, and perform the necessary criticality calculations. Java is used to build and run input samples, and to extract data from the output files of MCNP6, and R is used to perform regression analysis and other multivariate variance, and analysis of the collinearity of data

  15. A simple and accurate model for the design of public lighting with energy efficiency functions based on regression analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabaza, Ovidio; Gómez-Lorente, Daniel; Pérez-Ocón, Francisco; Peña-García, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    In this study, new relationships between the energy efficiency of street lighting systems, street width, and luminaire height were derived from the analysis of a large sample of outputs, generated with a software application widely used for lighting design. The result was a quadratic polynomial that perfectly fit the relationships obtained and whose coefficients characterize each type of luminaire. This greatly simplifies the design of lighting facilities because it only uses one equation, but at the same time, takes all necessary variables into account. The procedure maximized the energy efficiency of the street lighting systems, as far as conditions allowed, and greatly facilitated the calculation of the parameters of a basic lighting installation, according to CIE (International Commission on Illumination) recommendations. - Highlights: • New parameter relationships for efficient public lighting design were obtained. • A second-order polynomial simplifies the design of the lighting facilities using only one equation. • The procedure guarantees the maximization of energy efficiency of street lighting systems. • The results have been successfully tested with a well-known and reliable free software.

  16. AN APPLICATION OF FUNCTIONAL MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION MODEL TO MULTICLASS CLASSIFICATION

    OpenAIRE

    Krzyśko, Mirosław; Smaga, Łukasz

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, the scale response functional multivariate regression model is considered. By using the basis functions representation of functional predictors and regression coefficients, this model is rewritten as a multivariate regression model. This representation of the functional multivariate regression model is used for multiclass classification for multivariate functional data. Computational experiments performed on real labelled data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed ...

  17. Regression analysis of sparse asynchronous longitudinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Hongyuan; Zeng, Donglin; Fine, Jason P

    2015-09-01

    We consider estimation of regression models for sparse asynchronous longitudinal observations, where time-dependent responses and covariates are observed intermittently within subjects. Unlike with synchronous data, where the response and covariates are observed at the same time point, with asynchronous data, the observation times are mismatched. Simple kernel-weighted estimating equations are proposed for generalized linear models with either time invariant or time-dependent coefficients under smoothness assumptions for the covariate processes which are similar to those for synchronous data. For models with either time invariant or time-dependent coefficients, the estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal but converge at slower rates than those achieved with synchronous data. Simulation studies evidence that the methods perform well with realistic sample sizes and may be superior to a naive application of methods for synchronous data based on an ad hoc last value carried forward approach. The practical utility of the methods is illustrated on data from a study on human immunodeficiency virus.

  18. Robust mislabel logistic regression without modeling mislabel probabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung; Jou, Zhi-Yu; Huang, Su-Yun

    2018-03-01

    Logistic regression is among the most widely used statistical methods for linear discriminant analysis. In many applications, we only observe possibly mislabeled responses. Fitting a conventional logistic regression can then lead to biased estimation. One common resolution is to fit a mislabel logistic regression model, which takes into consideration of mislabeled responses. Another common method is to adopt a robust M-estimation by down-weighting suspected instances. In this work, we propose a new robust mislabel logistic regression based on γ-divergence. Our proposal possesses two advantageous features: (1) It does not need to model the mislabel probabilities. (2) The minimum γ-divergence estimation leads to a weighted estimating equation without the need to include any bias correction term, that is, it is automatically bias-corrected. These features make the proposed γ-logistic regression more robust in model fitting and more intuitive for model interpretation through a simple weighting scheme. Our method is also easy to implement, and two types of algorithms are included. Simulation studies and the Pima data application are presented to demonstrate the performance of γ-logistic regression. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  19. [The trial of business data analysis at the Department of Radiology by constructing the auto-regressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tani, Yuji; Ogasawara, Katsuhiko

    2012-01-01

    This study aimed to contribute to the management of a healthcare organization by providing management information using time-series analysis of business data accumulated in the hospital information system, which has not been utilized thus far. In this study, we examined the performance of the prediction method using the auto-regressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model, using the business data obtained at the Radiology Department. We made the model using the data used for analysis, which was the number of radiological examinations in the past 9 years, and we predicted the number of radiological examinations in the last 1 year. Then, we compared the actual value with the forecast value. We were able to establish that the performance prediction method was simple and cost-effective by using free software. In addition, we were able to build the simple model by pre-processing the removal of trend components using the data. The difference between predicted values and actual values was 10%; however, it was more important to understand the chronological change rather than the individual time-series values. Furthermore, our method was highly versatile and adaptable compared to the general time-series data. Therefore, different healthcare organizations can use our method for the analysis and forecasting of their business data.

  20. Detection of epistatic effects with logic regression and a classical linear regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malina, Magdalena; Ickstadt, Katja; Schwender, Holger; Posch, Martin; Bogdan, Małgorzata

    2014-02-01

    To locate multiple interacting quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing a trait of interest within experimental populations, usually methods as the Cockerham's model are applied. Within this framework, interactions are understood as the part of the joined effect of several genes which cannot be explained as the sum of their additive effects. However, if a change in the phenotype (as disease) is caused by Boolean combinations of genotypes of several QTLs, this Cockerham's approach is often not capable to identify them properly. To detect such interactions more efficiently, we propose a logic regression framework. Even though with the logic regression approach a larger number of models has to be considered (requiring more stringent multiple testing correction) the efficient representation of higher order logic interactions in logic regression models leads to a significant increase of power to detect such interactions as compared to a Cockerham's approach. The increase in power is demonstrated analytically for a simple two-way interaction model and illustrated in more complex settings with simulation study and real data analysis.

  1. Management of Industrial Performance Indicators: Regression Analysis and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Roberto Hernandez Vergara

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Stochastic methods can be used in problem solving and explanation of natural phenomena through the application of statistical procedures. The article aims to associate the regression analysis and systems simulation, in order to facilitate the practical understanding of data analysis. The algorithms were developed in Microsoft Office Excel software, using statistical techniques such as regression theory, ANOVA and Cholesky Factorization, which made it possible to create models of single and multiple systems with up to five independent variables. For the analysis of these models, the Monte Carlo simulation and analysis of industrial performance indicators were used, resulting in numerical indices that aim to improve the goals’ management for compliance indicators, by identifying systems’ instability, correlation and anomalies. The analytical models presented in the survey indicated satisfactory results with numerous possibilities for industrial and academic applications, as well as the potential for deployment in new analytical techniques.

  2. A rotor optimization using regression analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giansante, N.

    1984-01-01

    The design and development of helicopter rotors is subject to the many design variables and their interactions that effect rotor operation. Until recently, selection of rotor design variables to achieve specified rotor operational qualities has been a costly, time consuming, repetitive task. For the past several years, Kaman Aerospace Corporation has successfully applied multiple linear regression analysis, coupled with optimization and sensitivity procedures, in the analytical design of rotor systems. It is concluded that approximating equations can be developed rapidly for a multiplicity of objective and constraint functions and optimizations can be performed in a rapid and cost effective manner; the number and/or range of design variables can be increased by expanding the data base and developing approximating functions to reflect the expanded design space; the order of the approximating equations can be expanded easily to improve correlation between analyzer results and the approximating equations; gradients of the approximating equations can be calculated easily and these gradients are smooth functions reducing the risk of numerical problems in the optimization; the use of approximating functions allows the problem to be started easily and rapidly from various initial designs to enhance the probability of finding a global optimum; and the approximating equations are independent of the analysis or optimization codes used.

  3. Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard

    2009-06-01

    Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.

  4. A generalized multivariate regression model for modelling ocean wave heights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X. L.; Feng, Y.; Swail, V. R.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, a generalized multivariate linear regression model is developed to represent the relationship between 6-hourly ocean significant wave heights (Hs) and the corresponding 6-hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields. The model is calibrated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and MSLP fields for 1981-2000, and is validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 2001-2010 and ERA40 reanalysis of Hs and MSLP for 1958-2001. The performance of the fitted model is evaluated in terms of Pierce skill score, frequency bias index, and correlation skill score. Being not normally distributed, wave heights are subjected to a data adaptive Box-Cox transformation before being used in the model fitting. Also, since 6-hourly data are being modelled, lag-1 autocorrelation must be and is accounted for. The models with and without Box-Cox transformation, and with and without accounting for autocorrelation, are inter-compared in terms of their prediction skills. The fitted MSLP-Hs relationship is then used to reconstruct historical wave height climate from the 6-hourly MSLP fields taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al. 2011), and to project possible future wave height climates using CMIP5 model simulations of MSLP fields. The reconstructed and projected wave heights, both seasonal means and maxima, are subject to a trend analysis that allows for non-linear (polynomial) trends.

  5. A generalized partially linear mean-covariance regression model for longitudinal proportional data, with applications to the analysis of quality of life data from cancer clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xueying; Qin, Guoyou; Tu, Dongsheng

    2017-05-30

    Motivated by the analysis of quality of life data from a clinical trial on early breast cancer, we propose in this paper a generalized partially linear mean-covariance regression model for longitudinal proportional data, which are bounded in a closed interval. Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix for within-subject responses and generalized estimation equations are used to estimate unknown parameters and the nonlinear function in the model. Simulation studies are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimation procedures. Our new model is also applied to analyze the data from the cancer clinical trial that motivated this research. In comparison with available models in the literature, the proposed model does not require specific parametric assumptions on the density function of the longitudinal responses and the probability function of the boundary values and can capture dynamic changes of time or other interested variables on both mean and covariance of the correlated proportional responses. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Quantifying the dose-response relationship between circulating folate concentrations and colorectal cancer in cohort studies: a meta-analysis based on a flexible meta-regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Shu-Chun; Rota, Matteo; Gunter, Marc J; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Eussen, Simone J P M; Vollset, Stein Emil; Ueland, Per Magne; Norat, Teresa; Ziegler, Regina G; Vineis, Paolo

    2013-10-01

    Most epidemiologic studies on folate intake suggest that folate may be protective against colorectal cancer, but the results on circulating (plasma or serum) folate are mostly inconclusive. We conducted a meta-analysis of case-control studies nested within prospective studies on circulating folate and colorectal cancer risk by using flexible meta-regression models to test the linear and nonlinear dose-response relationships. A total of 8 publications (10 cohorts, representing 3,477 cases and 7,039 controls) were included in the meta-analysis. The linear and nonlinear models corresponded to relative risks of 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.91, 1.02) and 0.99 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.02), respectively, per 10 nmol/L of circulating folate in contrast to the reference value. The pooled relative risks when comparing the highest with the lowest category were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.99) for radioimmunoassay and 1.03 (95% CI: 0.83, 1.22) for microbiological assay. Overall, our analyses suggest a null association between circulating folate and colorectal cancer risk. The stronger association for the radioimmunoassay-based studies could reflect differences in cohorts and study designs rather than assay performance. Further investigations need to integrate more accurate measurements and flexible modeling to explore the effects of folate in the presence of genetic, lifestyle, dietary, and hormone-related factors.

  7. Repeated Results Analysis for Middleware Regression Benchmarking

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bulej, Lubomír; Kalibera, T.; Tůma, P.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 60, - (2005), s. 345-358 ISSN 0166-5316 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/03/0672 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : middleware benchmarking * regression benchmarking * regression testing Subject RIV: JD - Computer Applications, Robotics Impact factor: 0.756, year: 2005

  8. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Linear regression analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Aggarwal

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In a previous article in this series, we explained correlation analysis which describes the strength of relationship between two continuous variables. In this article, we deal with linear regression analysis which predicts the value of one continuous variable from another. We also discuss the assumptions and pitfalls associated with this analysis.

  9. Logistic regression for risk factor modelling in stuttering research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Phil; Wu, Yaqionq

    2013-06-01

    To outline the uses of logistic regression and other statistical methods for risk factor analysis in the context of research on stuttering. The principles underlying the application of a logistic regression are illustrated, and the types of questions to which such a technique has been applied in the stuttering field are outlined. The assumptions and limitations of the technique are discussed with respect to existing stuttering research, and with respect to formulating appropriate research strategies to accommodate these considerations. Finally, some alternatives to the approach are briefly discussed. The way the statistical procedures are employed are demonstrated with some hypothetical data. Research into several practical issues concerning stuttering could benefit if risk factor modelling were used. Important examples are early diagnosis, prognosis (whether a child will recover or persist) and assessment of treatment outcome. After reading this article you will: (a) Summarize the situations in which logistic regression can be applied to a range of issues about stuttering; (b) Follow the steps in performing a logistic regression analysis; (c) Describe the assumptions of the logistic regression technique and the precautions that need to be checked when it is employed; (d) Be able to summarize its advantages over other techniques like estimation of group differences and simple regression. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The microcomputer scientific software series 2: general linear model--regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harold M. Rauscher

    1983-01-01

    The general linear model regression (GLMR) program provides the microcomputer user with a sophisticated regression analysis capability. The output provides a regression ANOVA table, estimators of the regression model coefficients, their confidence intervals, confidence intervals around the predicted Y-values, residuals for plotting, a check for multicollinearity, a...

  11. Variable Selection for Regression Models of Percentile Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouad, G.

    2017-12-01

    Percentile flows describe the flow magnitude equaled or exceeded for a given percent of time, and are widely used in water resource management. However, these statistics are normally unavailable since most basins are ungauged. Percentile flows of ungauged basins are often predicted using regression models based on readily observable basin characteristics, such as mean elevation. The number of these independent variables is too large to evaluate all possible models. A subset of models is typically evaluated using automatic procedures, like stepwise regression. This ignores a large variety of methods from the field of feature (variable) selection and physical understanding of percentile flows. A study of 918 basins in the United States was conducted to compare an automatic regression procedure to the following variable selection methods: (1) principal component analysis, (2) correlation analysis, (3) random forests, (4) genetic programming, (5) Bayesian networks, and (6) physical understanding. The automatic regression procedure only performed better than principal component analysis. Poor performance of the regression procedure was due to a commonly used filter for multicollinearity, which rejected the strongest models because they had cross-correlated independent variables. Multicollinearity did not decrease model performance in validation because of a representative set of calibration basins. Variable selection methods based strictly on predictive power (numbers 2-5 from above) performed similarly, likely indicating a limit to the predictive power of the variables. Similar performance was also reached using variables selected based on physical understanding, a finding that substantiates recent calls to emphasize physical understanding in modeling for predictions in ungauged basins. The strongest variables highlighted the importance of geology and land cover, whereas widely used topographic variables were the weakest predictors. Variables suffered from a high

  12. Modeling maximum daily temperature using a varying coefficient regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han Li; Xinwei Deng; Dong-Yum Kim; Eric P. Smith

    2014-01-01

    Relationships between stream water and air temperatures are often modeled using linear or nonlinear regression methods. Despite a strong relationship between water and air temperatures and a variety of models that are effective for data summarized on a weekly basis, such models did not yield consistently good predictions for summaries such as daily maximum temperature...

  13. Detection of Outliers in Regression Model for Medical Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Raj S

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In regression analysis, an outlier is an observation for which the residual is large in magnitude compared to other observations in the data set. The detection of outliers and influential points is an important step of the regression analysis. Outlier detection methods have been used to detect and remove anomalous values from data. In this paper, we detect the presence of outliers in simple linear regression models for medical data set. Chatterjee and Hadi mentioned that the ordinary residuals are not appropriate for diagnostic purposes; a transformed version of them is preferable. First, we investigate the presence of outliers based on existing procedures of residuals and standardized residuals. Next, we have used the new approach of standardized scores for detecting outliers without the use of predicted values. The performance of the new approach was verified with the real-life data.

  14. Bayesian approach to errors-in-variables in regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozliman, Nur Aainaa; Ibrahim, Adriana Irawati Nur; Yunus, Rossita Mohammad

    2017-05-01

    In many applications and experiments, data sets are often contaminated with error or mismeasured covariates. When at least one of the covariates in a model is measured with error, Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model can be used. Measurement error, when not corrected, would cause misleading statistical inferences and analysis. Therefore, our goal is to examine the relationship of the outcome variable and the unobserved exposure variable given the observed mismeasured surrogate by applying the Bayesian formulation to the EIV model. We shall extend the flexible parametric method proposed by Hossain and Gustafson (2009) to another nonlinear regression model which is the Poisson regression model. We shall then illustrate the application of this approach via a simulation study using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods.

  15. Metabolic activity of tree saps of different origin towards cultured human cells in the light of grade correspondence analysis and multiple regression modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur Wnorowski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Tree saps are nourishing biological media commonly used for beverage and syrup production. Although the nutritional aspect of tree saps is widely acknowledged, the exact relationship between the sap composition, origin, and effect on the metabolic rate of human cells is still elusive. Thus, we collected saps from seven different tree species and conducted composition-activity analysis. Saps from trees of Betulaceae, but not from Salicaceae, Sapindaceae, nor Juglandaceae families, were increasing the metabolic rate of HepG2 cells, as measured using tetrazolium-based assay. Content of glucose, fructose, sucrose, chlorides, nitrates, sulphates, fumarates, malates, and succinates in sap samples varied across different tree species. Grade correspondence analysis clustered trees based on the saps’ chemical footprint indicating its usability in chemotaxonomy. Multiple regression modeling showed that glucose and fumarate present in saps from silver birch (Betula pendula Roth., black alder (Alnus glutinosa Gaertn., and European hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L. are positively affecting the metabolic activity of HepG2 cells.

  16. Development of a predictive model for lead, cadmium and fluorine soil-water partition coefficients using sparse multiple linear regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Kengo; Yasutaka, Tetsuo; Kuwatani, Tatsu; Komai, Takeshi

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we applied sparse multiple linear regression (SMLR) analysis to clarify the relationships between soil properties and adsorption characteristics for a range of soils across Japan and identify easily-obtained physical and chemical soil properties that could be used to predict K and n values of cadmium, lead and fluorine. A model was first constructed that can easily predict the K and n values from nine soil parameters (pH, cation exchange capacity, specific surface area, total carbon, soil organic matter from loss on ignition and water holding capacity, the ratio of sand, silt and clay). The K and n values of cadmium, lead and fluorine of 17 soil samples were used to verify the SMLR models by the root mean square error values obtained from 512 combinations of soil parameters. The SMLR analysis indicated that fluorine adsorption to soil may be associated with organic matter, whereas cadmium or lead adsorption to soil is more likely to be influenced by soil pH, IL. We found that an accurate K value can be predicted from more than three soil parameters for most soils. Approximately 65% of the predicted values were between 33 and 300% of their measured values for the K value; 76% of the predicted values were within ±30% of their measured values for the n value. Our findings suggest that adsorption properties of lead, cadmium and fluorine to soil can be predicted from the soil physical and chemical properties using the presented models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Sparse Regression by Projection and Sparse Discriminant Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Qi, Xin

    2015-04-03

    © 2015, © American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Interface Foundation of North America. Recent years have seen active developments of various penalized regression methods, such as LASSO and elastic net, to analyze high-dimensional data. In these approaches, the direction and length of the regression coefficients are determined simultaneously. Due to the introduction of penalties, the length of the estimates can be far from being optimal for accurate predictions. We introduce a new framework, regression by projection, and its sparse version to analyze high-dimensional data. The unique nature of this framework is that the directions of the regression coefficients are inferred first, and the lengths and the tuning parameters are determined by a cross-validation procedure to achieve the largest prediction accuracy. We provide a theoretical result for simultaneous model selection consistency and parameter estimation consistency of our method in high dimension. This new framework is then generalized such that it can be applied to principal components analysis, partial least squares, and canonical correlation analysis. We also adapt this framework for discriminant analysis. Compared with the existing methods, where there is relatively little control of the dependency among the sparse components, our method can control the relationships among the components. We present efficient algorithms and related theory for solving the sparse regression by projection problem. Based on extensive simulations and real data analysis, we demonstrate that our method achieves good predictive performance and variable selection in the regression setting, and the ability to control relationships between the sparse components leads to more accurate classification. In supplementary materials available online, the details of the algorithms and theoretical proofs, and R codes for all simulation studies are provided.

  18. A simple approach to power and sample size calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaeth, Michael; Skovlund, Eva

    2004-06-15

    For a given regression problem it is possible to identify a suitably defined equivalent two-sample problem such that the power or sample size obtained for the two-sample problem also applies to the regression problem. For a standard linear regression model the equivalent two-sample problem is easily identified, but for generalized linear models and for Cox regression models the situation is more complicated. An approximately equivalent two-sample problem may, however, also be identified here. In particular, we show that for logistic regression and Cox regression models the equivalent two-sample problem is obtained by selecting two equally sized samples for which the parameters differ by a value equal to the slope times twice the standard deviation of the independent variable and further requiring that the overall expected number of events is unchanged. In a simulation study we examine the validity of this approach to power calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models. Several different covariate distributions are considered for selected values of the overall response probability and a range of alternatives. For the Cox regression model we consider both constant and non-constant hazard rates. The results show that in general the approach is remarkably accurate even in relatively small samples. Some discrepancies are, however, found in small samples with few events and a highly skewed covariate distribution. Comparison with results based on alternative methods for logistic regression models with a single continuous covariate indicates that the proposed method is at least as good as its competitors. The method is easy to implement and therefore provides a simple way to extend the range of problems that can be covered by the usual formulas for power and sample size determination. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, Chisato; Armstrong, Ben; Chalabi, Zaid; Mangtani, Punam; Hashizume, Masahiro

    2015-10-01

    Time series regression has been developed and long used to evaluate the short-term associations of air pollution and weather with mortality or morbidity of non-infectious diseases. The application of the regression approaches from this tradition to infectious diseases, however, is less well explored and raises some new issues. We discuss and present potential solutions for five issues often arising in such analyses: changes in immune population, strong autocorrelations, a wide range of plausible lag structures and association patterns, seasonality adjustments, and large overdispersion. The potential approaches are illustrated with datasets of cholera cases and rainfall from Bangladesh and influenza and temperature in Tokyo. Though this article focuses on the application of the traditional time series regression to infectious diseases and weather factors, we also briefly introduce alternative approaches, including mathematical modeling, wavelet analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Modifications proposed to standard time series regression practice include using sums of past cases as proxies for the immune population, and using the logarithm of lagged disease counts to control autocorrelation due to true contagion, both of which are motivated from "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR) models. The complexity of lag structures and association patterns can often be informed by biological mechanisms and explored by using distributed lag non-linear models. For overdispersed models, alternative distribution models such as quasi-Poisson and negative binomial should be considered. Time series regression can be used to investigate dependence of infectious diseases on weather, but may need modifying to allow for features specific to this context. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models

    OpenAIRE

    Ghysels, Eric; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Valkanov, Rossen

    2004-01-01

    We introduce Mixed Data Sampling (henceforth MIDAS) regression models. The regressions involve time series data sampled at different frequencies. Technically speaking MIDAS models specify conditional expectations as a distributed lag of regressors recorded at some higher sampling frequencies. We examine the asymptotic properties of MIDAS regression estimation and compare it with traditional distributed lag models. MIDAS regressions have wide applicability in macroeconomics and �nance.

  1. Model selection in kernel ridge regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exterkate, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Kernel ridge regression is a technique to perform ridge regression with a potentially infinite number of nonlinear transformations of the independent variables as regressors. This method is gaining popularity as a data-rich nonlinear forecasting tool, which is applicable in many different contexts....... The influence of the choice of kernel and the setting of tuning parameters on forecast accuracy is investigated. Several popular kernels are reviewed, including polynomial kernels, the Gaussian kernel, and the Sinc kernel. The latter two kernels are interpreted in terms of their smoothing properties......, and the tuning parameters associated to all these kernels are related to smoothness measures of the prediction function and to the signal-to-noise ratio. Based on these interpretations, guidelines are provided for selecting the tuning parameters from small grids using cross-validation. A Monte Carlo study...

  2. Regression Model to Predict Global Solar Irradiance in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hairuniza Ahmed Kutty

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel regression model is developed to estimate the monthly global solar irradiance in Malaysia. The model is developed based on different available meteorological parameters, including temperature, cloud cover, rain precipitate, relative humidity, wind speed, pressure, and gust speed, by implementing regression analysis. This paper reports on the details of the analysis of the effect of each prediction parameter to identify the parameters that are relevant to estimating global solar irradiance. In addition, the proposed model is compared in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE, mean bias error (MBE, and the coefficient of determination (R2 with other models available from literature studies. Seven models based on single parameters (PM1 to PM7 and five multiple-parameter models (PM7 to PM12 are proposed. The new models perform well, with RMSE ranging from 0.429% to 1.774%, R2 ranging from 0.942 to 0.992, and MBE ranging from −0.1571% to 0.6025%. In general, cloud cover significantly affects the estimation of global solar irradiance. However, cloud cover in Malaysia lacks sufficient influence when included into multiple-parameter models although it performs fairly well in single-parameter prediction models.

  3. Poisson Regression Analysis of Illness and Injury Surveillance Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frome E.L., Watkins J.P., Ellis E.D.

    2012-12-12

    The Department of Energy (DOE) uses illness and injury surveillance to monitor morbidity and assess the overall health of the work force. Data collected from each participating site include health events and a roster file with demographic information. The source data files are maintained in a relational data base, and are used to obtain stratified tables of health event counts and person time at risk that serve as the starting point for Poisson regression analysis. The explanatory variables that define these tables are age, gender, occupational group, and time. Typical response variables of interest are the number of absences due to illness or injury, i.e., the response variable is a count. Poisson regression methods are used to describe the effect of the explanatory variables on the health event rates using a log-linear main effects model. Results of fitting the main effects model are summarized in a tabular and graphical form and interpretation of model parameters is provided. An analysis of deviance table is used to evaluate the importance of each of the explanatory variables on the event rate of interest and to determine if interaction terms should be considered in the analysis. Although Poisson regression methods are widely used in the analysis of count data, there are situations in which over-dispersion occurs. This could be due to lack-of-fit of the regression model, extra-Poisson variation, or both. A score test statistic and regression diagnostics are used to identify over-dispersion. A quasi-likelihood method of moments procedure is used to evaluate and adjust for extra-Poisson variation when necessary. Two examples are presented using respiratory disease absence rates at two DOE sites to illustrate the methods and interpretation of the results. In the first example the Poisson main effects model is adequate. In the second example the score test indicates considerable over-dispersion and a more detailed analysis attributes the over-dispersion to extra

  4. An Analysis of Bank Service Satisfaction Based on Quantile Regression and Grey Relational Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Tsao Pan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Bank service satisfaction is vital to the success of a bank. In this paper, we propose to use the grey relational analysis to gauge the levels of service satisfaction of the banks. With the grey relational analysis, we compared the effects of different variables on service satisfaction. We gave ranks to the banks according to their levels of service satisfaction. We further used the quantile regression model to find the variables that affected the satisfaction of a customer at a specific quantile of satisfaction level. The result of the quantile regression analysis provided a bank manager with information to formulate policies to further promote satisfaction of the customers at different quantiles of satisfaction level. We also compared the prediction accuracies of the regression models at different quantiles. The experiment result showed that, among the seven quantile regression models, the median regression model has the best performance in terms of RMSE, RTIC, and CE performance measures.

  5. Mixture of Regression Models with Single-Index

    OpenAIRE

    Xiang, Sijia; Yao, Weixin

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we propose a class of semiparametric mixture regression models with single-index. We argue that many recently proposed semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models can be considered special cases of the proposed model. However, unlike existing semiparametric mixture regression models, the new pro- posed model can easily incorporate multivariate predictors into the nonparametric components. Backfitting estimates and the corresponding algorithms have been proposed for...

  6. Modeling Forest Structural Parameters in the Mediterranean Pines of Central Spain using QuickBird-2 Imagery and Classification and Regression Tree Analysis (CART

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José A. Delgado

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest structural parameters such as quadratic mean diameter, basal area, and number of trees per unit area are important for the assessment of wood volume and biomass and represent key forest inventory attributes. Forest inventory information is required to support sustainable management, carbon accounting, and policy development activities. Digital image processing of remotely sensed imagery is increasingly utilized to assist traditional, more manual, methods in the estimation of forest structural attributes over extensive areas, also enabling evaluation of change over time. Empirical attribute estimation with remotely sensed data is frequently employed, yet with known limitations, especially over complex environments such as Mediterranean forests. In this study, the capacity of high spatial resolution (HSR imagery and related techniques to model structural parameters at the stand level (n = 490 in Mediterranean pines in Central Spain is tested using data from the commercial satellite QuickBird-2. Spectral and spatial information derived from multispectral and panchromatic imagery (2.4 m and 0.68 m sided pixels, respectively served to model structural parameters. Classification and Regression Tree Analysis (CART was selected for the modeling of attributes. Accurate models were produced of quadratic mean diameter (QMD (R2 = 0.8; RMSE = 0.13 m with an average error of 17% while basal area (BA models produced an average error of 22% (RMSE = 5.79 m2/ha. When the measured number of trees per unit area (N was categorized, as per frequent forest management practices, CART models correctly classified 70% of the stands, with all other stands classified in an adjacent class. The accuracy of the attributes estimated here is expected to be better when canopy cover is more open and attribute values are at the lower end of the range present, as related in the pattern of the residuals found in this study. Our findings indicate that attributes derived from

  7. Bayesian Analysis for Penalized Spline Regression Using WinBUGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Penalized splines can be viewed as BLUPs in a mixed model framework, which allows the use of mixed model software for smoothing. Thus, software originally developed for Bayesian analysis of mixed models can be used for penalized spline regression. Bayesian inference for nonparametric models enjoys the flexibility of nonparametric models and the exact inference provided by the Bayesian inferential machinery. This paper provides a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of nonparametric Bayesian analysis in WinBUGS. Good mixing properties of the MCMC chains are obtained by using low-rank thin-plate splines, while simulation times per iteration are reduced employing WinBUGS specific computational tricks.

  8. Linear regression crash prediction models : issues and proposed solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-01

    The paper develops a linear regression model approach that can be applied to : crash data to predict vehicle crashes. The proposed approach involves novice data aggregation : to satisfy linear regression assumptions; namely error structure normality ...

  9. Model-based Quantile Regression for Discrete Data

    KAUST Repository

    Padellini, Tullia; Rue, Haavard

    2018-01-01

    Quantile regression is a class of methods voted to the modelling of conditional quantiles. In a Bayesian framework quantile regression has typically been carried out exploiting the Asymmetric Laplace Distribution as a working likelihood. Despite

  10. Two-step variable selection in quantile regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FAN Yali

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We propose a two-step variable selection procedure for high dimensional quantile regressions, in which the dimension of the covariates, pn is much larger than the sample size n. In the first step, we perform ℓ1 penalty, and we demonstrate that the first step penalized estimator with the LASSO penalty can reduce the model from an ultra-high dimensional to a model whose size has the same order as that of the true model, and the selected model can cover the true model. The second step excludes the remained irrelevant covariates by applying the adaptive LASSO penalty to the reduced model obtained from the first step. Under some regularity conditions, we show that our procedure enjoys the model selection consistency. We conduct a simulation study and a real data analysis to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed approach.

  11. On macroeconomic values investigation using fuzzy linear regression analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Pospíšil

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The theoretical background for abstract formalization of the vague phenomenon of complex systems is the fuzzy set theory. In the paper, vague data is defined as specialized fuzzy sets - fuzzy numbers and there is described a fuzzy linear regression model as a fuzzy function with fuzzy numbers as vague parameters. To identify the fuzzy coefficients of the model, the genetic algorithm is used. The linear approximation of the vague function together with its possibility area is analytically and graphically expressed. A suitable application is performed in the tasks of the time series fuzzy regression analysis. The time-trend and seasonal cycles including their possibility areas are calculated and expressed. The examples are presented from the economy field, namely the time-development of unemployment, agricultural production and construction respectively between 2009 and 2011 in the Czech Republic. The results are shown in the form of the fuzzy regression models of variables of time series. For the period 2009-2011, the analysis assumptions about seasonal behaviour of variables and the relationship between them were confirmed; in 2010, the system behaved fuzzier and the relationships between the variables were vaguer, that has a lot of causes, from the different elasticity of demand, through state interventions to globalization and transnational impacts.

  12. Forecasting Ebola with a regression transmission model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Asher

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and final size of the outbreak. The underlying discrete-time compartmental model used a time-varying reproductive rate modeled as a multiplicative random walk driven by the number of infectious individuals. This structure generalizes traditional Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR disease modeling approaches and allows for the flexible consideration of outbreaks with complex trajectories of disease dynamics. Keywords: Ebola, Forecasting, Mathematical modeling, Bayesian inference

  13. Forecasting urban water demand: A meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebri, Maamar

    2016-12-01

    Water managers and planners require accurate water demand forecasts over the short-, medium- and long-term for many purposes. These range from assessing water supply needs over spatial and temporal patterns to optimizing future investments and planning future allocations across competing sectors. This study surveys the empirical literature on the urban water demand forecasting using the meta-analytical approach. Specifically, using more than 600 estimates, a meta-regression analysis is conducted to identify explanations of cross-studies variation in accuracy of urban water demand forecasting. Our study finds that accuracy depends significantly on study characteristics, including demand periodicity, modeling method, forecasting horizon, model specification and sample size. The meta-regression results remain robust to different estimators employed as well as to a series of sensitivity checks performed. The importance of these findings lies in the conclusions and implications drawn out for regulators and policymakers and for academics alike. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Forecasting Ebola with a regression transmission model

    OpenAIRE

    Asher, Jason

    2017-01-01

    We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and final size of the outbreak. The underlying discrete-time compartmental model used a time-varying reproductive rate modeled as a multiplicative random walk driven by the number of infectious individuals. This structure generalizes ...

  15. New robust statistical procedures for the polytomous logistic regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilla, Elena; Ghosh, Abhik; Martin, Nirian; Pardo, Leandro

    2018-05-17

    This article derives a new family of estimators, namely the minimum density power divergence estimators, as a robust generalization of the maximum likelihood estimator for the polytomous logistic regression model. Based on these estimators, a family of Wald-type test statistics for linear hypotheses is introduced. Robustness properties of both the proposed estimators and the test statistics are theoretically studied through the classical influence function analysis. Appropriate real life examples are presented to justify the requirement of suitable robust statistical procedures in place of the likelihood based inference for the polytomous logistic regression model. The validity of the theoretical results established in the article are further confirmed empirically through suitable simulation studies. Finally, an approach for the data-driven selection of the robustness tuning parameter is proposed with empirical justifications. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Model Selection in Kernel Ridge Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exterkate, Peter

    Kernel ridge regression is gaining popularity as a data-rich nonlinear forecasting tool, which is applicable in many different contexts. This paper investigates the influence of the choice of kernel and the setting of tuning parameters on forecast accuracy. We review several popular kernels......, including polynomial kernels, the Gaussian kernel, and the Sinc kernel. We interpret the latter two kernels in terms of their smoothing properties, and we relate the tuning parameters associated to all these kernels to smoothness measures of the prediction function and to the signal-to-noise ratio. Based...... on these interpretations, we provide guidelines for selecting the tuning parameters from small grids using cross-validation. A Monte Carlo study confirms the practical usefulness of these rules of thumb. Finally, the flexible and smooth functional forms provided by the Gaussian and Sinc kernels makes them widely...

  17. Design and analysis of experiments classical and regression approaches with SAS

    CERN Document Server

    Onyiah, Leonard C

    2008-01-01

    Introductory Statistical Inference and Regression Analysis Elementary Statistical Inference Regression Analysis Experiments, the Completely Randomized Design (CRD)-Classical and Regression Approaches Experiments Experiments to Compare Treatments Some Basic Ideas Requirements of a Good Experiment One-Way Experimental Layout or the CRD: Design and Analysis Analysis of Experimental Data (Fixed Effects Model) Expected Values for the Sums of Squares The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Table Follow-Up Analysis to Check fo

  18. Extended cox regression model: The choice of timefunction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isik, Hatice; Tutkun, Nihal Ata; Karasoy, Durdu

    2017-07-01

    Cox regression model (CRM), which takes into account the effect of censored observations, is one the most applicative and usedmodels in survival analysis to evaluate the effects of covariates. Proportional hazard (PH), requires a constant hazard ratio over time, is the assumptionofCRM. Using extended CRM provides the test of including a time dependent covariate to assess the PH assumption or an alternative model in case of nonproportional hazards. In this study, the different types of real data sets are used to choose the time function and the differences between time functions are analyzed and discussed.

  19. Nonlinear regression analysis for evaluating tracer binding parameters using the programmable K1003 desk computer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarrach, D.; Strohner, P.

    1986-01-01

    The Gauss-Newton algorithm has been used to evaluate tracer binding parameters of RIA by nonlinear regression analysis. The calculations were carried out on the K1003 desk computer. Equations for simple binding models and its derivatives are presented. The advantages of nonlinear regression analysis over linear regression are demonstrated

  20. STREAMFLOW AND WATER QUALITY REGRESSION MODELING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... downstream Obigbo station show: consistent time-trends in degree of contamination; linear and non-linear relationships for water quality models against total dissolved solids (TDS), total suspended sediment (TSS), chloride, pH and sulphate; and non-linear relationship for streamflow and water quality transport models.

  1. Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

  2. Linear Regression Models for Estimating True Subsurface ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    47

    The objective is to minimize the processing time and computer memory required. 10 to carry out inversion .... to the mainland by two long bridges. .... term. In this approach, the model converges when the squared sum of the differences. 143.

  3. Direct modeling of regression effects for transition probabilities in the progressive illness-death model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Azarang, Leyla; Scheike, Thomas; de Uña-Álvarez, Jacobo

    2017-01-01

    In this work, we present direct regression analysis for the transition probabilities in the possibly non-Markov progressive illness–death model. The method is based on binomial regression, where the response is the indicator of the occupancy for the given state along time. Randomly weighted score...

  4. Alternative regression models to assess increase in childhood BMI

    OpenAIRE

    Beyerlein, Andreas; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Mansmann, Ulrich; Toschke, André M

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Background Body mass index (BMI) data usually have skewed distributions, for which common statistical modeling approaches such as simple linear or logistic regression have limitations. Methods Different regression approaches to predict childhood BMI by goodness-of-fit measures and means of interpretation were compared including generalized linear models (GLMs), quantile regression and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). We analyzed data of 4967 childre...

  5. Support Vector Regression Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Auto Regression for Electric Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Juan Li

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Electric load forecasting is an important issue for a power utility, associated with the management of daily operations such as energy transfer scheduling, unit commitment, and load dispatch. Inspired by strong non-linear learning capability of support vector regression (SVR, this paper presents a SVR model hybridized with the empirical mode decomposition (EMD method and auto regression (AR for electric load forecasting. The electric load data of the New South Wales (Australia market are employed for comparing the forecasting performances of different forecasting models. The results confirm the validity of the idea that the proposed model can simultaneously provide forecasting with good accuracy and interpretability.

  6. Modeling the number of car theft using Poisson regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkifli, Malina; Ling, Agnes Beh Yen; Kasim, Maznah Mat; Ismail, Noriszura

    2016-10-01

    Regression analysis is the most popular statistical methods used to express the relationship between the variables of response with the covariates. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the factors that influence the number of car theft using Poisson regression model. This paper will focus on the number of car thefts that occurred in districts in Peninsular Malaysia. There are two groups of factor that have been considered, namely district descriptive factors and socio and demographic factors. The result of the study showed that Bumiputera composition, Chinese composition, Other ethnic composition, foreign migration, number of residence with the age between 25 to 64, number of employed person and number of unemployed person are the most influence factors that affect the car theft cases. These information are very useful for the law enforcement department, insurance company and car owners in order to reduce and limiting the car theft cases in Peninsular Malaysia.

  7. Reconstruction of missing daily streamflow data using dynamic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tencaliec, Patricia; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Prieur, Clémentine; Mathevet, Thibault

    2015-12-01

    River discharge is one of the most important quantities in hydrology. It provides fundamental records for water resources management and climate change monitoring. Even very short data-gaps in this information can cause extremely different analysis outputs. Therefore, reconstructing missing data of incomplete data sets is an important step regarding the performance of the environmental models, engineering, and research applications, thus it presents a great challenge. The objective of this paper is to introduce an effective technique for reconstructing missing daily discharge data when one has access to only daily streamflow data. The proposed procedure uses a combination of regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) called dynamic regression model. This model uses the linear relationship between neighbor and correlated stations and then adjusts the residual term by fitting an ARIMA structure. Application of the model to eight daily streamflow data for the Durance river watershed showed that the model yields reliable estimates for the missing data in the time series. Simulation studies were also conducted to evaluate the performance of the procedure.

  8. Preface to Berk's "Regression Analysis: A Constructive Critique"

    OpenAIRE

    de Leeuw, Jan

    2003-01-01

    It is pleasure to write a preface for the book ”Regression Analysis” of my fellow series editor Dick Berk. And it is a pleasure in particular because the book is about regression analysis, the most popular and the most fundamental technique in applied statistics. And because it is critical of the way regression analysis is used in the sciences, in particular in the social and behavioral sciences. Although the book can be read as an introduction to regression analysis, it can also be read as a...

  9. External Tank Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) Prepress Regression Analysis Independent Review Technical Consultation Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Vickie s.

    2009-01-01

    The request to conduct an independent review of regression models, developed for determining the expected Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) External Tank (ET)-04 cycle count for the Space Shuttle ET tanking process, was submitted to the NASA Engineering and Safety Center NESC on September 20, 2005. The NESC team performed an independent review of regression models documented in Prepress Regression Analysis, Tom Clark and Angela Krenn, 10/27/05. This consultation consisted of a peer review by statistical experts of the proposed regression models provided in the Prepress Regression Analysis. This document is the consultation's final report.

  10. Estudi d'optimització per a regression wavelet analysis a través de models de regressió combinats

    OpenAIRE

    Martín Somé, Ángel

    2016-01-01

    Basant-nos en el treball realitzat a l'article "Regression wavelet analysis for lossless coding of remote-sensing data", es presenta un aprofundiment en la matèria intentant trobar punts de millora pel que fa a rendiment de compressió o el cost computacional de la transformació. RWA utilitza implementacions de la transformada wavelet discreta, concretament en aquest projecte només la implementada amb el filtre Haar, per dividir les dades en components d'aproximació i components de detall. Les...

  11. Dynamic Regression Intervention Modeling for the Malaysian Daily Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fadhilah Abdrazak

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays.  These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than other factors.  If these effects can be estimated and removed, the behavior of the series could be better viewed.  Thus, the aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting errors by using a dynamic regression model with intervention analysis.   Based on the linear transfer function method, a daily load model consists of either peak or average is developed.  The developed model outperformed the seasonal ARIMA model in estimating the fixed and moving holidays’ effects and achieved a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE in load forecast.

  12. Robust Regression and its Application in Financial Data Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mansoor Momeni; Mahmoud Dehghan Nayeri; Ali Faal Ghayoumi; Hoda Ghorbani

    2010-01-01

    This research is aimed to describe the application of robust regression and its advantages over the least square regression method in analyzing financial data. To do this, relationship between earning per share, book value of equity per share and share price as price model and earning per share, annual change of earning per share and return of stock as return model is discussed using both robust and least square regressions, and finally the outcomes are compared. Comparing the results from th...

  13. Applying Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator and Akaike Information Criterion Analysis to Find the Best Multiple Linear Regression Models between Climate Indices and Components of Cow's Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marami Milani, Mohammad Reza; Hense, Andreas; Rahmani, Elham; Ploeger, Angelika

    2016-07-23

    This study focuses on multiple linear regression models relating six climate indices (temperature humidity THI, environmental stress ESI, equivalent temperature index ETI, heat load HLI, modified HLI (HLI new ), and respiratory rate predictor RRP) with three main components of cow's milk (yield, fat, and protein) for cows in Iran. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Uncertainty estimation is employed by applying bootstrapping through resampling. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Climatic parameters are calculated from the NASA-MERRA global atmospheric reanalysis. Milk data for the months from April to September, 2002 to 2010 are used. The best linear regression models are found in spring between milk yield as the predictand and THI, ESI, ETI, HLI, and RRP as predictors with p -value < 0.001 and R ² (0.50, 0.49) respectively. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI, and ESI show the highest relation ( p -value < 0.001) with R ² (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. This method is suggested for the impact studies of climate variability/change on agriculture and food science fields when short-time series or data with large uncertainty are available.

  14. Predicting Performance on MOOC Assessments using Multi-Regression Models

    OpenAIRE

    Ren, Zhiyun; Rangwala, Huzefa; Johri, Aditya

    2016-01-01

    The past few years has seen the rapid growth of data min- ing approaches for the analysis of data obtained from Mas- sive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). The objectives of this study are to develop approaches to predict the scores a stu- dent may achieve on a given grade-related assessment based on information, considered as prior performance or prior ac- tivity in the course. We develop a personalized linear mul- tiple regression (PLMR) model to predict the grade for a student, prior to attempt...

  15. A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

  16. Mixed Frequency Data Sampling Regression Models: The R Package midasr

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Ghysels

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available When modeling economic relationships it is increasingly common to encounter data sampled at different frequencies. We introduce the R package midasr which enables estimating regression models with variables sampled at different frequencies within a MIDAS regression framework put forward in work by Ghysels, Santa-Clara, and Valkanov (2002. In this article we define a general autoregressive MIDAS regression model with multiple variables of different frequencies and show how it can be specified using the familiar R formula interface and estimated using various optimization methods chosen by the researcher. We discuss how to check the validity of the estimated model both in terms of numerical convergence and statistical adequacy of a chosen regression specification, how to perform model selection based on a information criterion, how to assess forecasting accuracy of the MIDAS regression model and how to obtain a forecast aggregation of different MIDAS regression models. We illustrate the capabilities of the package with a simulated MIDAS regression model and give two empirical examples of application of MIDAS regression.

  17. Analysis and Modeling for China’s Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Hybrid Method Based on Multiple Regression and Extreme Learning Machine: A View from Carbon Emission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Liang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The power industry is the main battlefield of CO2 emission reduction, which plays an important role in the implementation and development of the low carbon economy. The forecasting of electricity demand can provide a scientific basis for the country to formulate a power industry development strategy and further promote the sustained, healthy and rapid development of the national economy. Under the goal of low-carbon economy, medium and long term electricity demand forecasting will have very important practical significance. In this paper, a new hybrid electricity demand model framework is characterized as follows: firstly, integration of grey relation degree (GRD with induced ordered weighted harmonic averaging operator (IOWHA to propose a new weight determination method of hybrid forecasting model on basis of forecasting accuracy as induced variables is presented; secondly, utilization of the proposed weight determination method to construct the optimal hybrid forecasting model based on extreme learning machine (ELM forecasting model and multiple regression (MR model; thirdly, three scenarios in line with the level of realization of various carbon emission targets and dynamic simulation of effect of low-carbon economy on future electricity demand are discussed. The resulting findings show that, the proposed model outperformed and concentrated some monomial forecasting models, especially in boosting the overall instability dramatically. In addition, the development of a low-carbon economy will increase the demand for electricity, and have an impact on the adjustment of the electricity demand structure.

  18. Impact of multicollinearity on small sample hydrologic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, Charles N.; Song, Peter

    2013-06-01

    Often hydrologic regression models are developed with ordinary least squares (OLS) procedures. The use of OLS with highly correlated explanatory variables produces multicollinearity, which creates highly sensitive parameter estimators with inflated variances and improper model selection. It is not clear how to best address multicollinearity in hydrologic regression models. Here a Monte Carlo simulation is developed to compare four techniques to address multicollinearity: OLS, OLS with variance inflation factor screening (VIF), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares regression (PLS). The performance of these four techniques was observed for varying sample sizes, correlation coefficients between the explanatory variables, and model error variances consistent with hydrologic regional regression models. The negative effects of multicollinearity are magnified at smaller sample sizes, higher correlations between the variables, and larger model error variances (smaller R2). The Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the true model is known, multicollinearity is present, and the estimation and statistical testing of regression parameters are of interest, then PCR or PLS should be employed. If the model is unknown, or if the interest is solely on model predictions, is it recommended that OLS be employed since using more complicated techniques did not produce any improvement in model performance. A leave-one-out cross-validation case study was also performed using low-streamflow data sets from the eastern United States. Results indicate that OLS with stepwise selection generally produces models across study regions with varying levels of multicollinearity that are as good as biased regression techniques such as PCR and PLS.

  19. MODELING SNAKE MICROHABITAT FROM RADIOTELEMETRY STUDIES USING POLYTOMOUS LOGISTIC REGRESSION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Multivariate analysis of snake microhabitat has historically used techniques that were derived under assumptions of normality and common covariance structure (e.g., discriminant function analysis, MANOVA). In this study, polytomous logistic regression (PLR which does not require ...

  20. Least-Squares Linear Regression and Schrodinger's Cat: Perspectives on the Analysis of Regression Residuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Jeffrey B.

    The analysis of regression residuals and detection of outliers are discussed, with emphasis on determining how deviant an individual data point must be to be considered an outlier and the impact that multiple suspected outlier data points have on the process of outlier determination and treatment. Only bivariate (one dependent and one independent)…

  1. Simulation Experiments in Practice: Statistical Design and Regression Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2007-01-01

    In practice, simulation analysts often change only one factor at a time, and use graphical analysis of the resulting Input/Output (I/O) data. The goal of this article is to change these traditional, naïve methods of design and analysis, because statistical theory proves that more information is obtained when applying Design Of Experiments (DOE) and linear regression analysis. Unfortunately, classic DOE and regression analysis assume a single simulation response that is normally and independen...

  2. Regression of uveal malignant melanomas following cobalt-60 plaque. Correlates between acoustic spectrum analysis and tumor regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, D.J.; Lizzi, F.L.; Silverman, R.H.; Ellsworth, R.M.; Haik, B.G.; Abramson, D.H.; Smith, M.E.; Rondeau, M.J.

    1985-01-01

    Parameters derived from computer analysis of digital radio-frequency (rf) ultrasound scan data of untreated uveal malignant melanomas were examined for correlations with tumor regression following cobalt-60 plaque. Parameters included tumor height, normalized power spectrum and acoustic tissue type (ATT). Acoustic tissue type was based upon discriminant analysis of tumor power spectra, with spectra of tumors of known pathology serving as a model. Results showed ATT to be correlated with tumor regression during the first 18 months following treatment. Tumors with ATT associated with spindle cell malignant melanoma showed over twice the percentage reduction in height as those with ATT associated with mixed/epithelioid melanomas. Pre-treatment height was only weakly correlated with regression. Additionally, significant spectral changes were observed following treatment. Ultrasonic spectrum analysis thus provides a noninvasive tool for classification, prediction and monitoring of tumor response to cobalt-60 plaque

  3. Analytical and regression models of glass rod drawing process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alekseeva, L. B.

    2018-03-01

    The process of drawing glass rods (light guides) is being studied. The parameters of the process affecting the quality of the light guide have been determined. To solve the problem, mathematical models based on general equations of continuum mechanics are used. The conditions for the stable flow of the drawing process have been found, which are determined by the stability of the motion of the glass mass in the formation zone to small uncontrolled perturbations. The sensitivity of the formation zone to perturbations of the drawing speed and viscosity is estimated. Experimental models of the drawing process, based on the regression analysis methods, have been obtained. These models make it possible to customize a specific production process to obtain light guides of the required quality. They allow one to find the optimum combination of process parameters in the chosen area and to determine the required accuracy of maintaining them at a specified level.

  4. Use of non-linear mixed-effects modelling and regression analysis to predict the number of somatic coliphages by plaque enumeration after 3 hours of incubation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendez, Javier; Monleon-Getino, Antonio; Jofre, Juan; Lucena, Francisco

    2017-10-01

    The present study aimed to establish the kinetics of the appearance of coliphage plaques using the double agar layer titration technique to evaluate the feasibility of using traditional coliphage plaque forming unit (PFU) enumeration as a rapid quantification method. Repeated measurements of the appearance of plaques of coliphages titrated according to ISO 10705-2 at different times were analysed using non-linear mixed-effects regression to determine the most suitable model of their appearance kinetics. Although this model is adequate, to simplify its applicability two linear models were developed to predict the numbers of coliphages reliably, using the PFU counts as determined by the ISO after only 3 hours of incubation. One linear model, when the number of plaques detected was between 4 and 26 PFU after 3 hours, had a linear fit of: (1.48 × Counts 3 h + 1.97); and the other, values >26 PFU, had a fit of (1.18 × Counts 3 h + 2.95). If the number of plaques detected was PFU after 3 hours, we recommend incubation for (18 ± 3) hours. The study indicates that the traditional coliphage plating technique has a reasonable potential to provide results in a single working day without the need to invest in additional laboratory equipment.

  5. General Nature of Multicollinearity in Multiple Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Richard

    1981-01-01

    Discusses multiple regression, a very popular statistical technique in the field of education. One of the basic assumptions in regression analysis requires that independent variables in the equation should not be highly correlated. The problem of multicollinearity and some of the solutions to it are discussed. (Author)

  6. Short-term electricity prices forecasting based on support vector regression and Auto-regressive integrated moving average modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Che Jinxing; Wang Jianzhou

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present the use of different mathematical models to forecast electricity price under deregulated power. A successful prediction tool of electricity price can help both power producers and consumers plan their bidding strategies. Inspired by that the support vector regression (SVR) model, with the ε-insensitive loss function, admits of the residual within the boundary values of ε-tube, we propose a hybrid model that combines both SVR and Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to take advantage of the unique strength of SVR and ARIMA models in nonlinear and linear modeling, which is called SVRARIMA. A nonlinear analysis of the time-series indicates the convenience of nonlinear modeling, the SVR is applied to capture the nonlinear patterns. ARIMA models have been successfully applied in solving the residuals regression estimation problems. The experimental results demonstrate that the model proposed outperforms the existing neural-network approaches, the traditional ARIMA models and other hybrid models based on the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error.

  7. Statistical analysis of sediment toxicity by additive monotone regression splines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, de W.J.; Besten, den P.J.; Braak, ter C.J.F.

    2002-01-01

    Modeling nonlinearity and thresholds in dose-effect relations is a major challenge, particularly in noisy data sets. Here we show the utility of nonlinear regression with additive monotone regression splines. These splines lead almost automatically to the estimation of thresholds. We applied this

  8. Extending the linear model with R generalized linear, mixed effects and nonparametric regression models

    CERN Document Server

    Faraway, Julian J

    2005-01-01

    Linear models are central to the practice of statistics and form the foundation of a vast range of statistical methodologies. Julian J. Faraway''s critically acclaimed Linear Models with R examined regression and analysis of variance, demonstrated the different methods available, and showed in which situations each one applies. Following in those footsteps, Extending the Linear Model with R surveys the techniques that grow from the regression model, presenting three extensions to that framework: generalized linear models (GLMs), mixed effect models, and nonparametric regression models. The author''s treatment is thoroughly modern and covers topics that include GLM diagnostics, generalized linear mixed models, trees, and even the use of neural networks in statistics. To demonstrate the interplay of theory and practice, throughout the book the author weaves the use of the R software environment to analyze the data of real examples, providing all of the R commands necessary to reproduce the analyses. All of the ...

  9. Drought Patterns Forecasting using an Auto-Regressive Logistic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Jesus, M.; Sheffield, J.; Méndez Incera, F. J.; Losada, I. J.; Espejo, A.

    2014-12-01

    Drought is characterized by a water deficit that may manifest across a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Drought may create important socio-economic consequences, many times of catastrophic dimensions. A quantifiable definition of drought is elusive because depending on its impacts, consequences and generation mechanism, different water deficit periods may be identified as a drought by virtue of some definitions but not by others. Droughts are linked to the water cycle and, although a climate change signal may not have emerged yet, they are also intimately linked to climate.In this work we develop an auto-regressive logistic model for drought prediction at different temporal scales that makes use of a spatially explicit framework. Our model allows to include covariates, continuous or categorical, to improve the performance of the auto-regressive component.Our approach makes use of dimensionality reduction (principal component analysis) and classification techniques (K-Means and maximum dissimilarity) to simplify the representation of complex climatic patterns, such as sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP), while including information on their spatial structure, i.e. considering their spatial patterns. This procedure allows us to include in the analysis multivariate representation of complex climatic phenomena, as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We also explore the impact of other climate-related variables such as sun spots. The model allows to quantify the uncertainty of the forecasts and can be easily adapted to make predictions under future climatic scenarios. The framework herein presented may be extended to other applications such as flash flood analysis, or risk assessment of natural hazards.

  10. Random regression models for detection of gene by environment interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meuwissen Theo HE

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Two random regression models, where the effect of a putative QTL was regressed on an environmental gradient, are described. The first model estimates the correlation between intercept and slope of the random regression, while the other model restricts this correlation to 1 or -1, which is expected under a bi-allelic QTL model. The random regression models were compared to a model assuming no gene by environment interactions. The comparison was done with regards to the models ability to detect QTL, to position them accurately and to detect possible QTL by environment interactions. A simulation study based on a granddaughter design was conducted, and QTL were assumed, either by assigning an effect independent of the environment or as a linear function of a simulated environmental gradient. It was concluded that the random regression models were suitable for detection of QTL effects, in the presence and absence of interactions with environmental gradients. Fixing the correlation between intercept and slope of the random regression had a positive effect on power when the QTL effects re-ranked between environments.

  11. The evolution of GDP in USA using cyclic regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Catalin Angelo IOAN; Gina IOAN

    2013-01-01

    Based on the four major types of economic cycles (Kondratieff, Juglar, Kitchin, Kuznet), the paper aims to determine their actual length (for the U.S. economy) using cyclic regressions based on Fourier analysis.

  12. Logistic regression modelling: procedures and pitfalls in developing and interpreting prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Šarlija

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study sheds light on the most common issues related to applying logistic regression in prediction models for company growth. The purpose of the paper is 1 to provide a detailed demonstration of the steps in developing a growth prediction model based on logistic regression analysis, 2 to discuss common pitfalls and methodological errors in developing a model, and 3 to provide solutions and possible ways of overcoming these issues. Special attention is devoted to the question of satisfying logistic regression assumptions, selecting and defining dependent and independent variables, using classification tables and ROC curves, for reporting model strength, interpreting odds ratios as effect measures and evaluating performance of the prediction model. Development of a logistic regression model in this paper focuses on a prediction model of company growth. The analysis is based on predominantly financial data from a sample of 1471 small and medium-sized Croatian companies active between 2009 and 2014. The financial data is presented in the form of financial ratios divided into nine main groups depicting following areas of business: liquidity, leverage, activity, profitability, research and development, investing and export. The growth prediction model indicates aspects of a business critical for achieving high growth. In that respect, the contribution of this paper is twofold. First, methodological, in terms of pointing out pitfalls and potential solutions in logistic regression modelling, and secondly, theoretical, in terms of identifying factors responsible for high growth of small and medium-sized companies.

  13. Regression Models for Predicting Force Coefficients of Aerofoils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed ABDUL AKBAR

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Renewable sources of energy are attractive and advantageous in a lot of different ways. Among the renewable energy sources, wind energy is the fastest growing type. Among wind energy converters, Vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs have received renewed interest in the past decade due to some of the advantages they possess over their horizontal axis counterparts. VAWTs have evolved into complex 3-D shapes. A key component in predicting the output of VAWTs through analytical studies is obtaining the values of lift and drag coefficients which is a function of shape of the aerofoil, ‘angle of attack’ of wind and Reynolds’s number of flow. Sandia National Laboratories have carried out extensive experiments on aerofoils for the Reynolds number in the range of those experienced by VAWTs. The volume of experimental data thus obtained is huge. The current paper discusses three Regression analysis models developed wherein lift and drag coefficients can be found out using simple formula without having to deal with the bulk of the data. Drag coefficients and Lift coefficients were being successfully estimated by regression models with R2 values as high as 0.98.

  14. On two flexible methods of 2-dimensional regression analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Volf, Petr

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 4 (2012), s. 154-164 ISSN 1803-9782 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/10/2045 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : regression analysis * Gordon surface * prediction error * projection pursuit Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/SI/volf-on two flexible methods of 2-dimensional regression analysis.pdf

  15. Tutorial on Using Regression Models with Count Outcomes Using R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Alexander Beaujean

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Education researchers often study count variables, such as times a student reached a goal, discipline referrals, and absences. Most researchers that study these variables use typical regression methods (i.e., ordinary least-squares either with or without transforming the count variables. In either case, using typical regression for count data can produce parameter estimates that are biased, thus diminishing any inferences made from such data. As count-variable regression models are seldom taught in training programs, we present a tutorial to help educational researchers use such methods in their own research. We demonstrate analyzing and interpreting count data using Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The count regression methods are introduced through an example using the number of times students skipped class. The data for this example are freely available and the R syntax used run the example analyses are included in the Appendix.

  16. Supply and demand analysis for flood insurance by using logistic regression model: case study at Citarum watershed in South Bandung, West Java, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidi, P.; Mamat, M.; Sukono; Supian, S.

    2017-01-01

    Floods have always occurred in the Citarum river basin. The adverse effects caused by floods can cover all their property, including the destruction of houses. The impact due to damage to residential buildings is usually not small. Indeed, each of flooding, the government and several social organizations providing funds to repair the building. But the donations are given very limited, so it cannot cover the entire cost of repair was necessary. The presence of insurance products for property damage caused by the floods is considered very important. However, if its presence is also considered necessary by the public or not? In this paper, the factors that affect the supply and demand of insurance product for damaged building due to floods are analyzed. The method used in this analysis is the ordinal logistic regression. Based on the analysis that the factors that affect the supply and demand of insurance product for damaged building due to floods, it is included: age, economic circumstances, family situations, insurance motivations, and lifestyle. Simultaneously that the factors affecting supply and demand of insurance product for damaged building due to floods mounted to 65.7%.

  17. Regularized multivariate regression models with skew-t error distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Lianfu; Pourahmadi, Mohsen; Maadooliat, Mehdi

    2014-01-01

    We consider regularization of the parameters in multivariate linear regression models with the errors having a multivariate skew-t distribution. An iterative penalized likelihood procedure is proposed for constructing sparse estimators of both

  18. Correlation-regression model for physico-chemical quality of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abusaad

    areas, suggesting that groundwater quality in urban areas is closely related with land use ... the ground water, with correlation and regression model is also presented. ...... WHO (World Health Organization) (1985). Health hazards from nitrates.

  19. Variable selection in Logistic regression model with genetic algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng; Trevino, Victor; Hoseini, Sayed Shahabuddin; Belciug, Smaranda; Boopathi, Arumugam Manivanna; Zhang, Ping; Gorunescu, Florin; Subha, Velappan; Dai, Songshi

    2018-02-01

    Variable or feature selection is one of the most important steps in model specification. Especially in the case of medical-decision making, the direct use of a medical database, without a previous analysis and preprocessing step, is often counterproductive. In this way, the variable selection represents the method of choosing the most relevant attributes from the database in order to build a robust learning models and, thus, to improve the performance of the models used in the decision process. In biomedical research, the purpose of variable selection is to select clinically important and statistically significant variables, while excluding unrelated or noise variables. A variety of methods exist for variable selection, but none of them is without limitations. For example, the stepwise approach, which is highly used, adds the best variable in each cycle generally producing an acceptable set of variables. Nevertheless, it is limited by the fact that it commonly trapped in local optima. The best subset approach can systematically search the entire covariate pattern space, but the solution pool can be extremely large with tens to hundreds of variables, which is the case in nowadays clinical data. Genetic algorithms (GA) are heuristic optimization approaches and can be used for variable selection in multivariable regression models. This tutorial paper aims to provide a step-by-step approach to the use of GA in variable selection. The R code provided in the text can be extended and adapted to other data analysis needs.

  20. Finding determinants of audit delay by pooled OLS regression analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Vuko

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate determinants of audit delay. Audit delay is measured as the length of time (i.e. the number of calendar days from the fiscal year-end to the audit report date. It is important to understand factors that influence audit delay since it directly affects the timeliness of financial reporting. The research is conducted on a sample of Croatian listed companies, covering the period of four years (from 2008 to 2011. We use pooled OLS regression analysis, modelling audit delay as a function of the following explanatory variables: audit firm type, audit opinion, profitability, leverage, inventory and receivables to total assets, absolute value of total accruals, company size and audit committee existence. Our results indicate that audit committee existence, profitability and leverage are statistically significant determinants of audit delay in Croatia.

  1. Conditional Monte Carlo randomization tests for regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parhat, Parwen; Rosenberger, William F; Diao, Guoqing

    2014-08-15

    We discuss the computation of randomization tests for clinical trials of two treatments when the primary outcome is based on a regression model. We begin by revisiting the seminal paper of Gail, Tan, and Piantadosi (1988), and then describe a method based on Monte Carlo generation of randomization sequences. The tests based on this Monte Carlo procedure are design based, in that they incorporate the particular randomization procedure used. We discuss permuted block designs, complete randomization, and biased coin designs. We also use a new technique by Plamadeala and Rosenberger (2012) for simple computation of conditional randomization tests. Like Gail, Tan, and Piantadosi, we focus on residuals from generalized linear models and martingale residuals from survival models. Such techniques do not apply to longitudinal data analysis, and we introduce a method for computation of randomization tests based on the predicted rate of change from a generalized linear mixed model when outcomes are longitudinal. We show, by simulation, that these randomization tests preserve the size and power well under model misspecification. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Mixed kernel function support vector regression for global sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Kai; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Yuhao; Shi, Yan; Zhou, Yicheng

    2017-11-01

    Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays an important role in exploring the respective effects of input variables on an assigned output response. Amongst the wide sensitivity analyses in literature, the Sobol indices have attracted much attention since they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a mixed kernel function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model is employed to evaluate the Sobol indices at low computational cost. By the proposed derivation, the estimation of the Sobol indices can be obtained by post-processing the coefficients of the SVR meta-model. The MKF is constituted by the orthogonal polynomials kernel function and Gaussian radial basis kernel function, thus the MKF possesses both the global characteristic advantage of the polynomials kernel function and the local characteristic advantage of the Gaussian radial basis kernel function. The proposed approach is suitable for high-dimensional and non-linear problems. Performance of the proposed approach is validated by various analytical functions and compared with the popular polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). Results demonstrate that the proposed approach is an efficient method for global sensitivity analysis.

  3. Framing an Nuclear Emergency Plan using Qualitative Regression Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amy Hamijah Abdul Hamid; Ibrahim, M.Z.A.; Deris, S.R.

    2014-01-01

    Since the arising on safety maintenance issues due to post-Fukushima disaster, as well as, lack of literatures on disaster scenario investigation and theory development. This study is dealing with the initiation difficulty on the research purpose which is related to content and problem setting of the phenomenon. Therefore, the research design of this study refers to inductive approach which is interpreted and codified qualitatively according to primary findings and written reports. These data need to be classified inductively into thematic analysis as to develop conceptual framework related to several theoretical lenses. Moreover, the framing of the expected framework of the respective emergency plan as the improvised business process models are abundant of unstructured data abstraction and simplification. The structural methods of Qualitative Regression Analysis (QRA) and Work System snapshot applied to form the data into the proposed model conceptualization using rigorous analyses. These methods were helpful in organising and summarizing the snapshot into an ' as-is ' work system that being recommended as ' to-be' w ork system towards business process modelling. We conclude that these methods are useful to develop comprehensive and structured research framework for future enhancement in business process simulation. (author)

  4. Real estate value prediction using multivariate regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manjula, R.; Jain, Shubham; Srivastava, Sharad; Rajiv Kher, Pranav

    2017-11-01

    The real estate market is one of the most competitive in terms of pricing and the same tends to vary significantly based on a lot of factors, hence it becomes one of the prime fields to apply the concepts of machine learning to optimize and predict the prices with high accuracy. Therefore in this paper, we present various important features to use while predicting housing prices with good accuracy. We have described regression models, using various features to have lower Residual Sum of Squares error. While using features in a regression model some feature engineering is required for better prediction. Often a set of features (multiple regressions) or polynomial regression (applying a various set of powers in the features) is used for making better model fit. For these models are expected to be susceptible towards over fitting ridge regression is used to reduce it. This paper thus directs to the best application of regression models in addition to other techniques to optimize the result.

  5. Application of random regression models to the genetic evaluation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model included fixed regression on AM (range from 30 to 138 mo) and the effect of herd-measurement date concatenation. Random parts of the model were RRM coefficients for additive and permanent environmental effects, while residual effects were modelled to account for heterogeneity of variance by AY. Estimates ...

  6. The APT model as reduced-rank regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekker, P.A.; Dobbelstein, P.; Wansbeek, T.J.

    Integrating the two steps of an arbitrage pricing theory (APT) model leads to a reduced-rank regression (RRR) model. So the results on RRR can be used to estimate APT models, making estimation very simple. We give a succinct derivation of estimation of RRR, derive the asymptotic variance of RRR

  7. Predictors of Traditional Medical Practices in Illness Behavior in Northwestern Ethiopia: An Integrated Model of Behavioral Prediction Based Logistic Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abenezer Yared

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at investigating traditional medical beliefs and practices in illness behavior as well as predictors of the practices in Gondar city, northwestern Ethiopia, by using the integrated model of behavioral prediction. A cross-sectional quantitative survey was conducted to collect data through interviewer administered structured questionnaires from 496 individuals selected by probability proportional to size sampling technique. Unadjusted bivariate and adjusted multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed, and the results indicated that sociocultural predictors of normative response and attitude as well as psychosocial individual difference variables of traditional understanding of illness causation and perceived efficacy had statistically significant associations with traditional medical practices. Due to the influence of these factors, majority of the study population (85% thus relied on both herbal and spiritual varieties of traditional medicine to respond to their perceived illnesses, supporting the conclusion that characterized the illness behavior of the people as mainly involving traditional medical practices. The results implied two-way medicine needs to be developed with ongoing research, and health educations must take the traditional customs into consideration, for integrating interventions in the health care system in ways that the general public accepts yielding a better health outcome.

  8. Alternative regression models to assess increase in childhood BMI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansmann Ulrich

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Body mass index (BMI data usually have skewed distributions, for which common statistical modeling approaches such as simple linear or logistic regression have limitations. Methods Different regression approaches to predict childhood BMI by goodness-of-fit measures and means of interpretation were compared including generalized linear models (GLMs, quantile regression and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS. We analyzed data of 4967 children participating in the school entry health examination in Bavaria, Germany, from 2001 to 2002. TV watching, meal frequency, breastfeeding, smoking in pregnancy, maternal obesity, parental social class and weight gain in the first 2 years of life were considered as risk factors for obesity. Results GAMLSS showed a much better fit regarding the estimation of risk factors effects on transformed and untransformed BMI data than common GLMs with respect to the generalized Akaike information criterion. In comparison with GAMLSS, quantile regression allowed for additional interpretation of prespecified distribution quantiles, such as quantiles referring to overweight or obesity. The variables TV watching, maternal BMI and weight gain in the first 2 years were directly, and meal frequency was inversely significantly associated with body composition in any model type examined. In contrast, smoking in pregnancy was not directly, and breastfeeding and parental social class were not inversely significantly associated with body composition in GLM models, but in GAMLSS and partly in quantile regression models. Risk factor specific BMI percentile curves could be estimated from GAMLSS and quantile regression models. Conclusion GAMLSS and quantile regression seem to be more appropriate than common GLMs for risk factor modeling of BMI data.

  9. Alternative regression models to assess increase in childhood BMI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyerlein, Andreas; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Mansmann, Ulrich; Toschke, André M

    2008-09-08

    Body mass index (BMI) data usually have skewed distributions, for which common statistical modeling approaches such as simple linear or logistic regression have limitations. Different regression approaches to predict childhood BMI by goodness-of-fit measures and means of interpretation were compared including generalized linear models (GLMs), quantile regression and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). We analyzed data of 4967 children participating in the school entry health examination in Bavaria, Germany, from 2001 to 2002. TV watching, meal frequency, breastfeeding, smoking in pregnancy, maternal obesity, parental social class and weight gain in the first 2 years of life were considered as risk factors for obesity. GAMLSS showed a much better fit regarding the estimation of risk factors effects on transformed and untransformed BMI data than common GLMs with respect to the generalized Akaike information criterion. In comparison with GAMLSS, quantile regression allowed for additional interpretation of prespecified distribution quantiles, such as quantiles referring to overweight or obesity. The variables TV watching, maternal BMI and weight gain in the first 2 years were directly, and meal frequency was inversely significantly associated with body composition in any model type examined. In contrast, smoking in pregnancy was not directly, and breastfeeding and parental social class were not inversely significantly associated with body composition in GLM models, but in GAMLSS and partly in quantile regression models. Risk factor specific BMI percentile curves could be estimated from GAMLSS and quantile regression models. GAMLSS and quantile regression seem to be more appropriate than common GLMs for risk factor modeling of BMI data.

  10. The Use of Nonparametric Kernel Regression Methods in Econometric Production Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard

    and nonparametric estimations of production functions in order to evaluate the optimal firm size. The second paper discusses the use of parametric and nonparametric regression methods to estimate panel data regression models. The third paper analyses production risk, price uncertainty, and farmers' risk preferences...... within a nonparametric panel data regression framework. The fourth paper analyses the technical efficiency of dairy farms with environmental output using nonparametric kernel regression in a semiparametric stochastic frontier analysis. The results provided in this PhD thesis show that nonparametric......This PhD thesis addresses one of the fundamental problems in applied econometric analysis, namely the econometric estimation of regression functions. The conventional approach to regression analysis is the parametric approach, which requires the researcher to specify the form of the regression...

  11. Collision prediction models using multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Basyouny, Karim; Sayed, Tarek

    2009-07-01

    This paper advocates the use of multivariate Poisson-lognormal (MVPLN) regression to develop models for collision count data. The MVPLN approach presents an opportunity to incorporate the correlations across collision severity levels and their influence on safety analyses. The paper introduces a new multivariate hazardous location identification technique, which generalizes the univariate posterior probability of excess that has been commonly proposed and applied in the literature. In addition, the paper presents an alternative approach for quantifying the effect of the multivariate structure on the precision of expected collision frequency. The MVPLN approach is compared with the independent (separate) univariate Poisson-lognormal (PLN) models with respect to model inference, goodness-of-fit, identification of hot spots and precision of expected collision frequency. The MVPLN is modeled using the WinBUGS platform which facilitates computation of posterior distributions as well as providing a goodness-of-fit measure for model comparisons. The results indicate that the estimates of the extra Poisson variation parameters were considerably smaller under MVPLN leading to higher precision. The improvement in precision is due mainly to the fact that MVPLN accounts for the correlation between the latent variables representing property damage only (PDO) and injuries plus fatalities (I+F). This correlation was estimated at 0.758, which is highly significant, suggesting that higher PDO rates are associated with higher I+F rates, as the collision likelihood for both types is likely to rise due to similar deficiencies in roadway design and/or other unobserved factors. In terms of goodness-of-fit, the MVPLN model provided a superior fit than the independent univariate models. The multivariate hazardous location identification results demonstrated that some hazardous locations could be overlooked if the analysis was restricted to the univariate models.

  12. Multivariate Linear Regression and CART Regression Analysis of TBM Performance at Abu Hamour Phase-I Tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakubowski, J.; Stypulkowski, J. B.; Bernardeau, F. G.

    2017-12-01

    The first phase of the Abu Hamour drainage and storm tunnel was completed in early 2017. The 9.5 km long, 3.7 m diameter tunnel was excavated with two Earth Pressure Balance (EPB) Tunnel Boring Machines from Herrenknecht. TBM operation processes were monitored and recorded by Data Acquisition and Evaluation System. The authors coupled collected TBM drive data with available information on rock mass properties, cleansed, completed with secondary variables and aggregated by weeks and shifts. Correlations and descriptive statistics charts were examined. Multivariate Linear Regression and CART regression tree models linking TBM penetration rate (PR), penetration per revolution (PPR) and field penetration index (FPI) with TBM operational and geotechnical characteristics were performed for the conditions of the weak/soft rock of Doha. Both regression methods are interpretable and the data were screened with different computational approaches allowing enriched insight. The primary goal of the analysis was to investigate empirical relations between multiple explanatory and responding variables, to search for best subsets of explanatory variables and to evaluate the strength of linear and non-linear relations. For each of the penetration indices, a predictive model coupling both regression methods was built and validated. The resultant models appeared to be stronger than constituent ones and indicated an opportunity for more accurate and robust TBM performance predictions.

  13. Analysis of quantile regression as alternative to ordinary least squares

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrahim Abdullahi; Abubakar Yahaya

    2015-01-01

    In this article, an alternative to ordinary least squares (OLS) regression based on analytical solution in the Statgraphics software is considered, and this alternative is no other than quantile regression (QR) model. We also present goodness of fit statistic as well as approximate distributions of the associated test statistics for the parameters. Furthermore, we suggest a goodness of fit statistic called the least absolute deviation (LAD) coefficient of determination. The procedure is well ...

  14. Optimal choice of basis functions in the linear regression analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khotinskij, A.M.

    1988-01-01

    Problem of optimal choice of basis functions in the linear regression analysis is investigated. Step algorithm with estimation of its efficiency, which holds true at finite number of measurements, is suggested. Conditions, providing the probability of correct choice close to 1 are formulated. Application of the step algorithm to analysis of decay curves is substantiated. 8 refs

  15. Predicting Dropouts of University Freshmen: A Logit Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Y. L. Jack

    1984-01-01

    Stepwise discriminant analysis coupled with logit regression analysis of freshmen data from Brandon University (Manitoba) indicated that six tested variables drawn from research on university dropouts were useful in predicting attrition: student status, residence, financial sources, distance from home town, goal fulfillment, and satisfaction with…

  16. Simulation Experiments in Practice : Statistical Design and Regression Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2007-01-01

    In practice, simulation analysts often change only one factor at a time, and use graphical analysis of the resulting Input/Output (I/O) data. Statistical theory proves that more information is obtained when applying Design Of Experiments (DOE) and linear regression analysis. Unfortunately, classic

  17. Prediction of radiation levels in residences: A methodological comparison of CART [Classification and Regression Tree Analysis] and conventional regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janssen, I.; Stebbings, J.H.

    1990-01-01

    In environmental epidemiology, trace and toxic substance concentrations frequently have very highly skewed distributions ranging over one or more orders of magnitude, and prediction by conventional regression is often poor. Classification and Regression Tree Analysis (CART) is an alternative in such contexts. To compare the techniques, two Pennsylvania data sets and three independent variables are used: house radon progeny (RnD) and gamma levels as predicted by construction characteristics in 1330 houses; and ∼200 house radon (Rn) measurements as predicted by topographic parameters. CART may identify structural variables of interest not identified by conventional regression, and vice versa, but in general the regression models are similar. CART has major advantages in dealing with other common characteristics of environmental data sets, such as missing values, continuous variables requiring transformations, and large sets of potential independent variables. CART is most useful in the identification and screening of independent variables, greatly reducing the need for cross-tabulations and nested breakdown analyses. There is no need to discard cases with missing values for the independent variables because surrogate variables are intrinsic to CART. The tree-structured approach is also independent of the scale on which the independent variables are measured, so that transformations are unnecessary. CART identifies important interactions as well as main effects. The major advantages of CART appear to be in exploring data. Once the important variables are identified, conventional regressions seem to lead to results similar but more interpretable by most audiences. 12 refs., 8 figs., 10 tabs

  18. Weibull and lognormal Taguchi analysis using multiple linear regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piña-Monarrez, Manuel R.; Ortiz-Yañez, Jesús F.

    2015-01-01

    The paper provides to reliability practitioners with a method (1) to estimate the robust Weibull family when the Taguchi method (TM) is applied, (2) to estimate the normal operational Weibull family in an accelerated life testing (ALT) analysis to give confidence to the extrapolation and (3) to perform the ANOVA analysis to both the robust and the normal operational Weibull family. On the other hand, because the Weibull distribution neither has the normal additive property nor has a direct relationship with the normal parameters (µ, σ), in this paper, the issues of estimating a Weibull family by using a design of experiment (DOE) are first addressed by using an L_9 (3"4) orthogonal array (OA) in both the TM and in the Weibull proportional hazard model approach (WPHM). Then, by using the Weibull/Gumbel and the lognormal/normal relationships and multiple linear regression, the direct relationships between the Weibull and the lifetime parameters are derived and used to formulate the proposed method. Moreover, since the derived direct relationships always hold, the method is generalized to the lognormal and ALT analysis. Finally, the method’s efficiency is shown through its application to the used OA and to a set of ALT data. - Highlights: • It gives the statistical relations and steps to use the Taguchi Method (TM) to analyze Weibull data. • It gives the steps to determine the unknown Weibull family to both the robust TM setting and the normal ALT level. • It gives a method to determine the expected lifetimes and to perform its ANOVA analysis in TM and ALT analysis. • It gives a method to give confidence to the extrapolation in an ALT analysis by using the Weibull family of the normal level.

  19. A Novel Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm Based on Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiming Song

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As is known, the Pareto set of a continuous multiobjective optimization problem with m objective functions is a piecewise continuous (m-1-dimensional manifold in the decision space under some mild conditions. However, how to utilize the regularity to design multiobjective optimization algorithms has become the research focus. In this paper, based on this regularity, a model-based multiobjective evolutionary algorithm with regression analysis (MMEA-RA is put forward to solve continuous multiobjective optimization problems with variable linkages. In the algorithm, the optimization problem is modelled as a promising area in the decision space by a probability distribution, and the centroid of the probability distribution is (m-1-dimensional piecewise continuous manifold. The least squares method is used to construct such a model. A selection strategy based on the nondominated sorting is used to choose the individuals to the next generation. The new algorithm is tested and compared with NSGA-II and RM-MEDA. The result shows that MMEA-RA outperforms RM-MEDA and NSGA-II on the test instances with variable linkages. At the same time, MMEA-RA has higher efficiency than the other two algorithms. A few shortcomings of MMEA-RA have also been identified and discussed in this paper.

  20. Linear regression models for quantitative assessment of left ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changes in left ventricular structures and function have been reported in cardiomyopathies. No prediction models have been established in this environment. This study established regression models for prediction of left ventricular structures in normal subjects. A sample of normal subjects was drawn from a large urban ...

  1. Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Applied to Credit Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque

    Full Text Available Abstract This study used real data from a Brazilian financial institution on transactions involving Consumer Direct Credit (CDC, granted to clients residing in the Distrito Federal (DF, to construct credit scoring models via Logistic Regression and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR techniques. The aims were: to verify whether the factors that influence credit risk differ according to the borrower’s geographic location; to compare the set of models estimated via GWLR with the global model estimated via Logistic Regression, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution; and to verify the viability of using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models. The metrics used to compare the models developed via the two techniques were the AICc informational criterion, the accuracy of the models, the percentage of false positives, the sum of the value of false positive debt, and the expected monetary value of portfolio default compared with the monetary value of defaults observed. The models estimated for each region in the DF were distinct in their variables and coefficients (parameters, with it being concluded that credit risk was influenced differently in each region in the study. The Logistic Regression and GWLR methodologies presented very close results, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution, and the study demonstrated viability in using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models for the target population in the study.

  2. Oil Palm Counting and Age Estimation from WorldView-3 Imagery and LiDAR Data Using an Integrated OBIA Height Model and Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Mojaddadi Rizeei

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The current study proposes a new method for oil palm age estimation and counting. A support vector machine algorithm (SVM of object-based image analysis (OBIA was implemented for oil palm counting. It was integrated with height model and multiregression methods to accurately estimate the age of trees based on their heights in five different plantation blocks. Multiregression and multi-kernel size models were examined over five different oil palm plantation blocks to achieve the most optimized model for age estimation. The sensitivity analysis was conducted on four SVM kernel types (sigmoid (SIG, linear (LN, radial basis function (RBF, and polynomial (PL with associated parameters (threshold values, gamma γ, and penalty factor (c to obtain the optimal OBIA classification approaches for each plantation block. Very high-resolution imageries of WorldView-3 (WV-3 and light detection and range (LiDAR were used for oil palm detection and age assessment. The results of oil palm detection had an overall accuracy of 98.27%, 99.48%, 99.28%, 99.49%, and 97.49% for blocks A, B, C, D, and E, respectively. Moreover, the accuracy of age estimation analysis showed 90.1% for 3-year-old, 87.9% for 4-year-old, 88.0% for 6-year-old, 87.6% for 8-year-old, 79.1% for 9-year-old, and 76.8% for 22-year-old trees. Overall, the study revealed that remote sensing techniques can be useful to monitor and detect oil palm plantation for sustainable agricultural management.

  3. Ultracentrifuge separative power modeling with multivariate regression using covariance matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Migliavacca, Elder

    2004-01-01

    In this work, the least-squares methodology with covariance matrix is applied to determine a data curve fitting to obtain a performance function for the separative power δU of a ultracentrifuge as a function of variables that are experimentally controlled. The experimental data refer to 460 experiments on the ultracentrifugation process for uranium isotope separation. The experimental uncertainties related with these independent variables are considered in the calculation of the experimental separative power values, determining an experimental data input covariance matrix. The process variables, which significantly influence the δU values are chosen in order to give information on the ultracentrifuge behaviour when submitted to several levels of feed flow rate F, cut θ and product line pressure P p . After the model goodness-of-fit validation, a residual analysis is carried out to verify the assumed basis concerning its randomness and independence and mainly the existence of residual heteroscedasticity with any explained regression model variable. The surface curves are made relating the separative power with the control variables F, θ and P p to compare the fitted model with the experimental data and finally to calculate their optimized values. (author)

  4. Physics constrained nonlinear regression models for time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majda, Andrew J; Harlim, John

    2013-01-01

    A central issue in contemporary science is the development of data driven statistical nonlinear dynamical models for time series of partial observations of nature or a complex physical model. It has been established recently that ad hoc quadratic multi-level regression (MLR) models can have finite-time blow up of statistical solutions and/or pathological behaviour of their invariant measure. Here a new class of physics constrained multi-level quadratic regression models are introduced, analysed and applied to build reduced stochastic models from data of nonlinear systems. These models have the advantages of incorporating memory effects in time as well as the nonlinear noise from energy conserving nonlinear interactions. The mathematical guidelines for the performance and behaviour of these physics constrained MLR models as well as filtering algorithms for their implementation are developed here. Data driven applications of these new multi-level nonlinear regression models are developed for test models involving a nonlinear oscillator with memory effects and the difficult test case of the truncated Burgers–Hopf model. These new physics constrained quadratic MLR models are proposed here as process models for Bayesian estimation through Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms of low frequency behaviour in complex physical data. (paper)

  5. Model-based Quantile Regression for Discrete Data

    KAUST Repository

    Padellini, Tullia

    2018-04-10

    Quantile regression is a class of methods voted to the modelling of conditional quantiles. In a Bayesian framework quantile regression has typically been carried out exploiting the Asymmetric Laplace Distribution as a working likelihood. Despite the fact that this leads to a proper posterior for the regression coefficients, the resulting posterior variance is however affected by an unidentifiable parameter, hence any inferential procedure beside point estimation is unreliable. We propose a model-based approach for quantile regression that considers quantiles of the generating distribution directly, and thus allows for a proper uncertainty quantification. We then create a link between quantile regression and generalised linear models by mapping the quantiles to the parameter of the response variable, and we exploit it to fit the model with R-INLA. We extend it also in the case of discrete responses, where there is no 1-to-1 relationship between quantiles and distribution\\'s parameter, by introducing continuous generalisations of the most common discrete variables (Poisson, Binomial and Negative Binomial) to be exploited in the fitting.

  6. Intermediate and advanced topics in multilevel logistic regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Merlo, Juan

    2017-09-10

    Multilevel data occur frequently in health services, population and public health, and epidemiologic research. In such research, binary outcomes are common. Multilevel logistic regression models allow one to account for the clustering of subjects within clusters of higher-level units when estimating the effect of subject and cluster characteristics on subject outcomes. A search of the PubMed database demonstrated that the use of multilevel or hierarchical regression models is increasing rapidly. However, our impression is that many analysts simply use multilevel regression models to account for the nuisance of within-cluster homogeneity that is induced by clustering. In this article, we describe a suite of analyses that can complement the fitting of multilevel logistic regression models. These ancillary analyses permit analysts to estimate the marginal or population-average effect of covariates measured at the subject and cluster level, in contrast to the within-cluster or cluster-specific effects arising from the original multilevel logistic regression model. We describe the interval odds ratio and the proportion of opposed odds ratios, which are summary measures of effect for cluster-level covariates. We describe the variance partition coefficient and the median odds ratio which are measures of components of variance and heterogeneity in outcomes. These measures allow one to quantify the magnitude of the general contextual effect. We describe an R 2 measure that allows analysts to quantify the proportion of variation explained by different multilevel logistic regression models. We illustrate the application and interpretation of these measures by analyzing mortality in patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Maximum Entropy Discrimination Poisson Regression for Software Reliability Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzis, Sotirios P; Andreou, Andreas S

    2015-11-01

    Reliably predicting software defects is one of the most significant tasks in software engineering. Two of the major components of modern software reliability modeling approaches are: 1) extraction of salient features for software system representation, based on appropriately designed software metrics and 2) development of intricate regression models for count data, to allow effective software reliability data modeling and prediction. Surprisingly, research in the latter frontier of count data regression modeling has been rather limited. More specifically, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made the Bayesian approaches appear unattractive, and thus underdeveloped in the context of software reliability modeling. In this paper, we try to address these issues by introducing a novel Bayesian regression model for count data, based on the concept of max-margin data modeling, effected in the context of a fully Bayesian model treatment with simple and efficient posterior distribution updates. Our novel approach yields a more discriminative learning technique, making more effective use of our training data during model inference. In addition, it allows of better handling uncertainty in the modeled data, which can be a significant problem when the training data are limited. We derive elegant inference algorithms for our model under the mean-field paradigm and exhibit its effectiveness using the publicly available benchmark data sets.

  8. Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

    2018-04-01

    The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

  9. Multiple Response Regression for Gaussian Mixture Models with Known Labels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Wonyul; Du, Ying; Sun, Wei; Hayes, D Neil; Liu, Yufeng

    2012-12-01

    Multiple response regression is a useful regression technique to model multiple response variables using the same set of predictor variables. Most existing methods for multiple response regression are designed for modeling homogeneous data. In many applications, however, one may have heterogeneous data where the samples are divided into multiple groups. Our motivating example is a cancer dataset where the samples belong to multiple cancer subtypes. In this paper, we consider modeling the data coming from a mixture of several Gaussian distributions with known group labels. A naive approach is to split the data into several groups according to the labels and model each group separately. Although it is simple, this approach ignores potential common structures across different groups. We propose new penalized methods to model all groups jointly in which the common and unique structures can be identified. The proposed methods estimate the regression coefficient matrix, as well as the conditional inverse covariance matrix of response variables. Asymptotic properties of the proposed methods are explored. Through numerical examples, we demonstrate that both estimation and prediction can be improved by modeling all groups jointly using the proposed methods. An application to a glioblastoma cancer dataset reveals some interesting common and unique gene relationships across different cancer subtypes.

  10. Thermal Efficiency Degradation Diagnosis Method Using Regression Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jee, Chang Hyun; Heo, Gyun Young; Jang, Seok Won; Lee, In Cheol

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes an idea for thermal efficiency degradation diagnosis in turbine cycles, which is based on turbine cycle simulation under abnormal conditions and a linear regression model. The correlation between the inputs for representing degradation conditions (normally unmeasured but intrinsic states) and the simulation outputs (normally measured but superficial states) was analyzed with the linear regression model. The regression models can inversely response an associated intrinsic state for a superficial state observed from a power plant. The diagnosis method proposed herein is classified into three processes, 1) simulations for degradation conditions to get measured states (referred as what-if method), 2) development of the linear model correlating intrinsic and superficial states, and 3) determination of an intrinsic state using the superficial states of current plant and the linear regression model (referred as inverse what-if method). The what-if method is to generate the outputs for the inputs including various root causes and/or boundary conditions whereas the inverse what-if method is the process of calculating the inverse matrix with the given superficial states, that is, component degradation modes. The method suggested in this paper was validated using the turbine cycle model for an operating power plant

  11. Evaluation of Logistic Regression and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Models for Groundwater Potential Mapping Using R and GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soyoung Park

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study mapped and analyzed groundwater potential using two different models, logistic regression (LR and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, and compared the results. A spatial database was constructed for groundwater well data and groundwater influence factors. Groundwater well data with a high potential yield of ≥70 m3/d were extracted, and 859 locations (70% were used for model training, whereas the other 365 locations (30% were used for model validation. We analyzed 16 groundwater influence factors including altitude, slope degree, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index, stream power index, sediment transport index, distance from drainage, drainage density, lithology, distance from fault, fault density, distance from lineament, lineament density, and land cover. Groundwater potential maps (GPMs were constructed using LR and MARS models and tested using a receiver operating characteristics curve. Based on this analysis, the area under the curve (AUC for the success rate curve of GPMs created using the MARS and LR models was 0.867 and 0.838, and the AUC for the prediction rate curve was 0.836 and 0.801, respectively. This implies that the MARS model is useful and effective for groundwater potential analysis in the study area.

  12. Determinants of orphan drugs prices in France: a regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korchagina, Daria; Millier, Aurelie; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Aballea, Samuel; Falissard, Bruno; Toumi, Mondher

    2017-04-21

    The introduction of the orphan drug legislation led to the increase in the number of available orphan drugs, but the access to them is often limited due to the high price. Social preferences regarding funding orphan drugs as well as the criteria taken into consideration while setting the price remain unclear. The study aimed at identifying the determinant of orphan drug prices in France using a regression analysis. All drugs with a valid orphan designation at the moment of launch for which the price was available in France were included in the analysis. The selection of covariates was based on a literature review and included drug characteristics (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) class, treatment line, age of target population), diseases characteristics (severity, prevalence, availability of alternative therapeutic options), health technology assessment (HTA) details (actual benefit (AB) and improvement in actual benefit (IAB) scores, delay between the HTA and commercialisation), and study characteristics (type of study, comparator, type of endpoint). The main data sources were European public assessment reports, HTA reports, summaries of opinion on orphan designation of the European Medicines Agency, and the French insurance database of drugs and tariffs. A generalized regression model was developed to test the association between the annual treatment cost and selected covariates. A total of 68 drugs were included. The mean annual treatment cost was €96,518. In the univariate analysis, the ATC class (p = 0.01), availability of alternative treatment options (p = 0.02) and the prevalence (p = 0.02) showed a significant correlation with the annual cost. The multivariate analysis demonstrated significant association between the annual cost and availability of alternative treatment options, ATC class, IAB score, type of comparator in the pivotal clinical trial, as well as commercialisation date and delay between the HTA and commercialisation. The

  13. Flexible competing risks regression modeling and goodness-of-fit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we consider different approaches for estimation and assessment of covariate effects for the cumulative incidence curve in the competing risks model. The classic approach is to model all cause-specific hazards and then estimate the cumulative incidence curve based on these cause...... models that is easy to fit and contains the Fine-Gray model as a special case. One advantage of this approach is that our regression modeling allows for non-proportional hazards. This leads to a new simple goodness-of-fit procedure for the proportional subdistribution hazards assumption that is very easy...... of the flexible regression models to analyze competing risks data when non-proportionality is present in the data....

  14. The art of regression modeling in road safety

    CERN Document Server

    Hauer, Ezra

    2015-01-01

    This unique book explains how to fashion useful regression models from commonly available data to erect models essential for evidence-based road safety management and research. Composed from techniques and best practices presented over many years of lectures and workshops, The Art of Regression Modeling in Road Safety illustrates that fruitful modeling cannot be done without substantive knowledge about the modeled phenomenon. Class-tested in courses and workshops across North America, the book is ideal for professionals, researchers, university professors, and graduate students with an interest in, or responsibilities related to, road safety. This book also: · Presents for the first time a powerful analytical tool for road safety researchers and practitioners · Includes problems and solutions in each chapter as well as data and spreadsheets for running models and PowerPoint presentation slides · Features pedagogy well-suited for graduate courses and workshops including problems, solutions, and PowerPoint p...

  15. Model building strategy for logistic regression: purposeful selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng

    2016-03-01

    Logistic regression is one of the most commonly used models to account for confounders in medical literature. The article introduces how to perform purposeful selection model building strategy with R. I stress on the use of likelihood ratio test to see whether deleting a variable will have significant impact on model fit. A deleted variable should also be checked for whether it is an important adjustment of remaining covariates. Interaction should be checked to disentangle complex relationship between covariates and their synergistic effect on response variable. Model should be checked for the goodness-of-fit (GOF). In other words, how the fitted model reflects the real data. Hosmer-Lemeshow GOF test is the most widely used for logistic regression model.

  16. Wheat flour dough Alveograph characteristics predicted by Mixolab regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codină, Georgiana Gabriela; Mironeasa, Silvia; Mironeasa, Costel; Popa, Ciprian N; Tamba-Berehoiu, Radiana

    2012-02-01

    In Romania, the Alveograph is the most used device to evaluate the rheological properties of wheat flour dough, but lately the Mixolab device has begun to play an important role in the breadmaking industry. These two instruments are based on different principles but there are some correlations that can be found between the parameters determined by the Mixolab and the rheological properties of wheat dough measured with the Alveograph. Statistical analysis on 80 wheat flour samples using the backward stepwise multiple regression method showed that Mixolab values using the ‘Chopin S’ protocol (40 samples) and ‘Chopin + ’ protocol (40 samples) can be used to elaborate predictive models for estimating the value of the rheological properties of wheat dough: baking strength (W), dough tenacity (P) and extensibility (L). The correlation analysis confirmed significant findings (P 0.70 for P, R²(adjusted) > 0.70 for W and R²(adjusted) > 0.38 for L, at a 95% confidence interval. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

  17. Robust analysis of trends in noisy tokamak confinement data using geodesic least squares regression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verdoolaege, G., E-mail: geert.verdoolaege@ugent.be [Department of Applied Physics, Ghent University, B-9000 Ghent (Belgium); Laboratory for Plasma Physics, Royal Military Academy, B-1000 Brussels (Belgium); Shabbir, A. [Department of Applied Physics, Ghent University, B-9000 Ghent (Belgium); Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, Boltzmannstr. 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); Hornung, G. [Department of Applied Physics, Ghent University, B-9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2016-11-15

    Regression analysis is a very common activity in fusion science for unveiling trends and parametric dependencies, but it can be a difficult matter. We have recently developed the method of geodesic least squares (GLS) regression that is able to handle errors in all variables, is robust against data outliers and uncertainty in the regression model, and can be used with arbitrary distribution models and regression functions. We here report on first results of application of GLS to estimation of the multi-machine scaling law for the energy confinement time in tokamaks, demonstrating improved consistency of the GLS results compared to standard least squares.

  18. Analysis of some methods for reduced rank Gaussian process regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quinonero-Candela, J.; Rasmussen, Carl Edward

    2005-01-01

    While there is strong motivation for using Gaussian Processes (GPs) due to their excellent performance in regression and classification problems, their computational complexity makes them impractical when the size of the training set exceeds a few thousand cases. This has motivated the recent...... proliferation of a number of cost-effective approximations to GPs, both for classification and for regression. In this paper we analyze one popular approximation to GPs for regression: the reduced rank approximation. While generally GPs are equivalent to infinite linear models, we show that Reduced Rank...... Gaussian Processes (RRGPs) are equivalent to finite sparse linear models. We also introduce the concept of degenerate GPs and show that they correspond to inappropriate priors. We show how to modify the RRGP to prevent it from being degenerate at test time. Training RRGPs consists both in learning...

  19. Spatial stochastic regression modelling of urban land use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arshad, S H M; Jaafar, J; Abiden, M Z Z; Latif, Z A; Rasam, A R A

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is very closely linked to industrialization, commercialization or overall economic growth and development. This results in innumerable benefits of the quantity and quality of the urban environment and lifestyle but on the other hand contributes to unbounded development, urban sprawl, overcrowding and decreasing standard of living. Regulation and observation of urban development activities is crucial. The understanding of urban systems that promotes urban growth are also essential for the purpose of policy making, formulating development strategies as well as development plan preparation. This study aims to compare two different stochastic regression modeling techniques for spatial structure models of urban growth in the same specific study area. Both techniques will utilize the same datasets and their results will be analyzed. The work starts by producing an urban growth model by using stochastic regression modeling techniques namely the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The two techniques are compared to and it is found that, GWR seems to be a more significant stochastic regression model compared to OLS, it gives a smaller AICc (Akaike's Information Corrected Criterion) value and its output is more spatially explainable

  20. Direction of Effects in Multiple Linear Regression Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedermann, Wolfgang; von Eye, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies analyzed asymmetric properties of the Pearson correlation coefficient using higher than second order moments. These asymmetric properties can be used to determine the direction of dependence in a linear regression setting (i.e., establish which of two variables is more likely to be on the outcome side) within the framework of cross-sectional observational data. Extant approaches are restricted to the bivariate regression case. The present contribution extends the direction of dependence methodology to a multiple linear regression setting by analyzing distributional properties of residuals of competing multiple regression models. It is shown that, under certain conditions, the third central moments of estimated regression residuals can be used to decide upon direction of effects. In addition, three different approaches for statistical inference are discussed: a combined D'Agostino normality test, a skewness difference test, and a bootstrap difference test. Type I error and power of the procedures are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations, and an empirical example is provided for illustrative purposes. In the discussion, issues concerning the quality of psychological data, possible extensions of the proposed methods to the fourth central moment of regression residuals, and potential applications are addressed.

  1. An Original Stepwise Multilevel Logistic Regression Analysis of Discriminatory Accuracy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merlo, Juan; Wagner, Philippe; Ghith, Nermin

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIM: Many multilevel logistic regression analyses of "neighbourhood and health" focus on interpreting measures of associations (e.g., odds ratio, OR). In contrast, multilevel analysis of variance is rarely considered. We propose an original stepwise analytical approach that disting...

  2. MULGRES: a computer program for stepwise multiple regression analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Jeff Martin

    1971-01-01

    MULGRES is a computer program source deck that is designed for multiple regression analysis employing the technique of stepwise deletion in the search for most significant variables. The features of the program, along with inputs and outputs, are briefly described, with a note on machine compatibility.

  3. Regression Analysis: Instructional Resource for Cost/Managerial Accounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stout, David E.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a classroom-tested instructional resource, grounded in principles of active learning and a constructivism, that embraces two primary objectives: "demystify" for accounting students technical material from statistics regarding ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression analysis--material that students may find obscure or…

  4. Real-time regression analysis with deep convolutional neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Huerta, E. A.; George, Daniel; Zhao, Zhizhen; Allen, Gabrielle

    2018-01-01

    We discuss the development of novel deep learning algorithms to enable real-time regression analysis for time series data. We showcase the application of this new method with a timely case study, and then discuss the applicability of this approach to tackle similar challenges across science domains.

  5. Modeling and prediction of flotation performance using support vector regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Despotović Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Continuous efforts have been made in recent year to improve the process of paper recycling, as it is of critical importance for saving the wood, water and energy resources. Flotation deinking is considered to be one of the key methods for separation of ink particles from the cellulose fibres. Attempts to model the flotation deinking process have often resulted in complex models that are difficult to implement and use. In this paper a model for prediction of flotation performance based on Support Vector Regression (SVR, is presented. Representative data samples were created in laboratory, under a variety of practical control variables for the flotation deinking process, including different reagents, pH values and flotation residence time. Predictive model was created that was trained on these data samples, and the flotation performance was assessed showing that Support Vector Regression is a promising method even when dataset used for training the model is limited.

  6. Parametric vs. Nonparametric Regression Modelling within Clinical Decision Support

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kalina, Jan; Zvárová, Jana

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 1 (2017), s. 21-27 ISSN 1805-8698 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA17-01251S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : decision support systems * decision rules * statistical analysis * nonparametric regression Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability

  7. Linearity and Misspecification Tests for Vector Smooth Transition Regression Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teräsvirta, Timo; Yang, Yukai

    The purpose of the paper is to derive Lagrange multiplier and Lagrange multiplier type specification and misspecification tests for vector smooth transition regression models. We report results from simulation studies in which the size and power properties of the proposed asymptotic tests in small...

  8. Efficient estimation of an additive quantile regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, Y.; de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom, D.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper two kernel-based nonparametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a viable alternative to the method of De Gooijer and Zerom (2003). By

  9. Efficient estimation of an additive quantile regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, Y.; de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom, D.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper two kernel-based nonparametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a viable alternative to the method of De Gooijer and Zerom (2003). By

  10. Efficient estimation of an additive quantile regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, Y.; de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom, D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, two non-parametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a more viable alternative to existing kernel-based approaches. The second estimator

  11. A binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-09-03

    Sep 3, 2017 ... Bi-variable and multi-variable binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design was fitted. .... Data was entered into STATA-12 and analyzed using. SPSS-21. .... lack of access/too far or costs too much. 35. 1.2.

  12. Transpiration of glasshouse rose crops: evaluation of regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baas, R.; Rijssel, van E.

    2006-01-01

    Regression models of transpiration (T) based on global radiation inside the greenhouse (G), with or without energy input from heating pipes (Eh) and/or vapor pressure deficit (VPD) were parameterized. Therefore, data on T, G, temperatures from air, canopy and heating pipes, and VPD from both a

  13. Regression analysis of censored data using pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parner, Erik T.; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2010-01-01

    We draw upon a series of articles in which a method based on pseu- dovalues is proposed for direct regression modeling of the survival function, the restricted mean, and the cumulative incidence function in competing risks with right-censored data. The models, once the pseudovalues have been...... computed, can be fit using standard generalized estimating equation software. Here we present Stata procedures for computing these pseudo-observations. An example from a bone marrow transplantation study is used to illustrate the method....

  14. Approximating prediction uncertainty for random forest regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Christine E. Blinn; Valerie A. Thomas; Randolph H. Wynne

    2016-01-01

    Machine learning approaches such as random forest have increased for the spatial modeling and mapping of continuous variables. Random forest is a non-parametric ensemble approach, and unlike traditional regression approaches there is no direct quantification of prediction error. Understanding prediction uncertainty is important when using model-based continuous maps as...

  15. CICAAR - Convolutive ICA with an Auto-Regressive Inverse Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dyrholm, Mads; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2004-01-01

    We invoke an auto-regressive IIR inverse model for convolutive ICA and derive expressions for the likelihood and its gradient. We argue that optimization will give a stable inverse. When there are more sensors than sources the mixing model parameters are estimated in a second step by least square...... estimation. We demonstrate the method on synthetic data and finally separate speech and music in a real room recording....

  16. A simplified procedure of linear regression in a preliminary analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Facchinetti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of a statistical large data-set can be led by the study of a particularly interesting variable Y – regressed – and an explicative variable X, chosen among the remained variables, conjointly observed. The study gives a simplified procedure to obtain the functional link of the variables y=y(x by a partition of the data-set into m subsets, in which the observations are synthesized by location indices (mean or median of X and Y. Polynomial models for y(x of order r are considered to verify the characteristics of the given procedure, in particular we assume r= 1 and 2. The distributions of the parameter estimators are obtained by simulation, when the fitting is done for m= r + 1. Comparisons of the results, in terms of distribution and efficiency, are made with the results obtained by the ordinary least square methods. The study also gives some considerations on the consistency of the estimated parameters obtained by the given procedure.

  17. On concurvity in nonlinear and nonparametric regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Amodio

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available When data are affected by multicollinearity in the linear regression framework, then concurvity will be present in fitting a generalized additive model (GAM. The term concurvity describes nonlinear dependencies among the predictor variables. As collinearity results in inflated variance of the estimated regression coefficients in the linear regression model, the result of the presence of concurvity leads to instability of the estimated coefficients in GAMs. Even if the backfitting algorithm will always converge to a solution, in case of concurvity the final solution of the backfitting procedure in fitting a GAM is influenced by the starting functions. While exact concurvity is highly unlikely, approximate concurvity, the analogue of multicollinearity, is of practical concern as it can lead to upwardly biased estimates of the parameters and to underestimation of their standard errors, increasing the risk of committing type I error. We compare the existing approaches to detect concurvity, pointing out their advantages and drawbacks, using simulated and real data sets. As a result, this paper will provide a general criterion to detect concurvity in nonlinear and non parametric regression models.

  18. Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minh Vu Trieu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS, Brazilian tensile strength (BTS, rock brittleness index (BI, the distance between planes of weakness (DPW, and the alpha angle (Alpha between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP. Four (4 statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2 of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

  19. Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minh, Vu Trieu; Katushin, Dmitri; Antonov, Maksim; Veinthal, Renno

    2017-03-01

    This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM) based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), rock brittleness index (BI), the distance between planes of weakness (DPW), and the alpha angle (Alpha) between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP). Four (4) statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear) are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2) of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

  20. Application of regression model on stream water quality parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suleman, M.; Maqbool, F.; Malik, A.H.; Bhatti, Z.A.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of solid waste leachate from the open solid waste dumping site of Salhad on the stream water quality. Five sites were selected along the stream. Two sites were selected prior to mixing of leachate with the surface water. One was of leachate and other two sites were affected with leachate. Samples were analyzed for pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO) and total bacterial load (TBL). In this study correlation coefficient r among different water quality parameters of various sites were calculated by using Pearson model and then average of each correlation between two parameters were also calculated, which shows TDS and EC and pH and BOD have significantly increasing r value, while temperature and TDS, temp and EC, DO and BL, DO and COD have decreasing r value. Single factor ANOVA at 5% level of significance was used which shows EC, TDS, TCL and COD were significantly differ among various sites. By the application of these two statistical approaches TDS and EC shows strongly positive correlation because the ions from the dissolved solids in water influence the ability of that water to conduct an electrical current. These two parameters significantly vary among 5 sites which are further confirmed by using linear regression. (author)

  1. Detecting overdispersion in count data: A zero-inflated Poisson regression analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti; Asrul Affendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Nor, Maria Elena; Mohamed, Maryati; Ismail, Norradihah

    2017-09-01

    This study focusing on analysing count data of butterflies communities in Jasin, Melaka. In analysing count dependent variable, the Poisson regression model has been known as a benchmark model for regression analysis. Continuing from the previous literature that used Poisson regression analysis, this study comprising the used of zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression analysis to gain acute precision on analysing the count data of butterfly communities in Jasin, Melaka. On the other hands, Poisson regression should be abandoned in the favour of count data models, which are capable of taking into account the extra zeros explicitly. By far, one of the most popular models include ZIP regression model. The data of butterfly communities which had been called as the number of subjects in this study had been taken in Jasin, Melaka and consisted of 131 number of subjects visits Jasin, Melaka. Since the researchers are considering the number of subjects, this data set consists of five families of butterfly and represent the five variables involve in the analysis which are the types of subjects. Besides, the analysis of ZIP used the SAS procedure of overdispersion in analysing zeros value and the main purpose of continuing the previous study is to compare which models would be better than when exists zero values for the observation of the count data. The analysis used AIC, BIC and Voung test of 5% level significance in order to achieve the objectives. The finding indicates that there is a presence of over-dispersion in analysing zero value. The ZIP regression model is better than Poisson regression model when zero values exist.

  2. On a Robust MaxEnt Process Regression Model with Sample-Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hea-Jung Kim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In a regression analysis, a sample-selection bias arises when a dependent variable is partially observed as a result of the sample selection. This study introduces a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt process regression model that assumes a MaxEnt prior distribution for its nonparametric regression function and finds that the MaxEnt process regression model includes the well-known Gaussian process regression (GPR model as a special case. Then, this special MaxEnt process regression model, i.e., the GPR model, is generalized to obtain a robust sample-selection Gaussian process regression (RSGPR model that deals with non-normal data in the sample selection. Various properties of the RSGPR model are established, including the stochastic representation, distributional hierarchy, and magnitude of the sample-selection bias. These properties are used in the paper to develop a hierarchical Bayesian methodology to estimate the model. This involves a simple and computationally feasible Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that avoids analytical or numerical derivatives of the log-likelihood function of the model. The performance of the RSGPR model in terms of the sample-selection bias correction, robustness to non-normality, and prediction, is demonstrated through results in simulations that attest to its good finite-sample performance.

  3. Hierarchical Neural Regression Models for Customer Churn Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golshan Mohammadi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available As customers are the main assets of each industry, customer churn prediction is becoming a major task for companies to remain in competition with competitors. In the literature, the better applicability and efficiency of hierarchical data mining techniques has been reported. This paper considers three hierarchical models by combining four different data mining techniques for churn prediction, which are backpropagation artificial neural networks (ANN, self-organizing maps (SOM, alpha-cut fuzzy c-means (α-FCM, and Cox proportional hazards regression model. The hierarchical models are ANN + ANN + Cox, SOM + ANN + Cox, and α-FCM + ANN + Cox. In particular, the first component of the models aims to cluster data in two churner and nonchurner groups and also filter out unrepresentative data or outliers. Then, the clustered data as the outputs are used to assign customers to churner and nonchurner groups by the second technique. Finally, the correctly classified data are used to create Cox proportional hazards model. To evaluate the performance of the hierarchical models, an Iranian mobile dataset is considered. The experimental results show that the hierarchical models outperform the single Cox regression baseline model in terms of prediction accuracy, Types I and II errors, RMSE, and MAD metrics. In addition, the α-FCM + ANN + Cox model significantly performs better than the two other hierarchical models.

  4. Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio [DIAM, Seconda Universita degli Studi di Napoli, Via Roma 29, 81031 Aversa (CE) (Italy)

    2009-09-15

    The influence of economic and demographic variables on the annual electricity consumption in Italy has been investigated with the intention to develop a long-term consumption forecasting model. The time period considered for the historical data is from 1970 to 2007. Different regression models were developed, using historical electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) and population. A first part of the paper considers the estimation of GDP, price and GDP per capita elasticities of domestic and non-domestic electricity consumption. The domestic and non-domestic short run price elasticities are found to be both approximately equal to -0.06, while long run elasticities are equal to -0.24 and -0.09, respectively. On the contrary, the elasticities of GDP and GDP per capita present higher values. In the second part of the paper, different regression models, based on co-integrated or stationary data, are presented. Different statistical tests are employed to check the validity of the proposed models. A comparison with national forecasts, based on complex econometric models, such as Markal-Time, was performed, showing that the developed regressions are congruent with the official projections, with deviations of {+-}1% for the best case and {+-}11% for the worst. These deviations are to be considered acceptable in relation to the time span taken into account. (author)

  5. Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio

    2009-01-01

    The influence of economic and demographic variables on the annual electricity consumption in Italy has been investigated with the intention to develop a long-term consumption forecasting model. The time period considered for the historical data is from 1970 to 2007. Different regression models were developed, using historical electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) and population. A first part of the paper considers the estimation of GDP, price and GDP per capita elasticities of domestic and non-domestic electricity consumption. The domestic and non-domestic short run price elasticities are found to be both approximately equal to -0.06, while long run elasticities are equal to -0.24 and -0.09, respectively. On the contrary, the elasticities of GDP and GDP per capita present higher values. In the second part of the paper, different regression models, based on co-integrated or stationary data, are presented. Different statistical tests are employed to check the validity of the proposed models. A comparison with national forecasts, based on complex econometric models, such as Markal-Time, was performed, showing that the developed regressions are congruent with the official projections, with deviations of ±1% for the best case and ±11% for the worst. These deviations are to be considered acceptable in relation to the time span taken into account. (author)

  6. Using the Logistic Regression model in supporting decisions of establishing marketing strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristinel CONSTANTIN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is about an instrumental research regarding the using of Logistic Regression model for data analysis in marketing research. The decision makers inside different organisation need relevant information to support their decisions regarding the marketing strategies. The data provided by marketing research could be computed in various ways but the multivariate data analysis models can enhance the utility of the information. Among these models we can find the Logistic Regression model, which is used for dichotomous variables. Our research is based on explanation the utility of this model and interpretation of the resulted information in order to help practitioners and researchers to use it in their future investigations

  7. The Application of Classical and Neural Regression Models for the Valuation of Residential Real Estate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mach Łukasz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The research process aimed at building regression models, which helps to valuate residential real estate, is presented in the following article. Two widely used computational tools i.e. the classical multiple regression and regression models of artificial neural networks were used in order to build models. An attempt to define the utilitarian usefulness of the above-mentioned tools and comparative analysis of them is the aim of the conducted research. Data used for conducting analyses refers to the secondary transactional residential real estate market.

  8. The Regression Analysis of Individual Financial Performance: Evidence from Croatia

    OpenAIRE

    Bahovec, Vlasta; Barbić, Dajana; Palić, Irena

    2017-01-01

    Background: A large body of empirical literature indicates that gender and financial literacy are significant determinants of individual financial performance. Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to recognize the impact of the variable financial literacy and the variable gender on the variation of the financial performance using the regression analysis. Methods/Approach: The survey was conducted using the systematically chosen random sample of Croatian financial consumers. The cross sect...

  9. THE REGRESSION MODEL OF IRAN LIBRARIES ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE

    OpenAIRE

    Jahani, Mohammad Ali; Yaminfirooz, Mousa; Siamian, Hasan

    2015-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study was to drawing a regression model of organizational climate of central libraries of Iran?s universities. Methods: This study is an applied research. The statistical population of this study consisted of 96 employees of the central libraries of Iran?s public universities selected among the 117 universities affiliated to the Ministry of Health by Stratified Sampling method (510 people). Climate Qual localized questionnaire was used as research tools. For pr...

  10. BRGLM, Interactive Linear Regression Analysis by Least Square Fit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringland, J.T.; Bohrer, R.E.; Sherman, M.E.

    1985-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: BRGLM is an interactive program written to fit general linear regression models by least squares and to provide a variety of statistical diagnostic information about the fit. Stepwise and all-subsets regression can be carried out also. There are facilities for interactive data management (e.g. setting missing value flags, data transformations) and tools for constructing design matrices for the more commonly-used models such as factorials, cubic Splines, and auto-regressions. 2 - Method of solution: The least squares computations are based on the orthogonal (QR) decomposition of the design matrix obtained using the modified Gram-Schmidt algorithm. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The current release of BRGLM allows maxima of 1000 observations, 99 variables, and 3000 words of main memory workspace. For a problem with N observations and P variables, the number of words of main memory storage required is MAX(N*(P+6), N*P+P*P+3*N, and 3*P*P+6*N). Any linear model may be fit although the in-memory workspace will have to be increased for larger problems

  11. Regression models for interval censored survival data: Application to HIV infection in Danish homosexual men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carstensen, Bendix

    1996-01-01

    This paper shows how to fit excess and relative risk regression models to interval censored survival data, and how to implement the models in standard statistical software. The methods developed are used for the analysis of HIV infection rates in a cohort of Danish homosexual men.......This paper shows how to fit excess and relative risk regression models to interval censored survival data, and how to implement the models in standard statistical software. The methods developed are used for the analysis of HIV infection rates in a cohort of Danish homosexual men....

  12. A logistic regression model for Ghana National Health Insurance claims

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Antwi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In August 2003, the Ghanaian Government made history by implementing the first National Health Insurance System (NHIS in Sub-Saharan Africa. Within three years, over half of the country’s population had voluntarily enrolled into the National Health Insurance Scheme. This study had three objectives: 1 To estimate the risk factors that influences the Ghana national health insurance claims. 2 To estimate the magnitude of each of the risk factors in relation to the Ghana national health insurance claims. In this work, data was collected from the policyholders of the Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme with the help of the National Health Insurance database and the patients’ attendance register of the Koforidua Regional Hospital, from 1st January to 31st December 2011. Quantitative analysis was done using the generalized linear regression (GLR models. The results indicate that risk factors such as sex, age, marital status, distance and length of stay at the hospital were important predictors of health insurance claims. However, it was found that the risk factors; health status, billed charges and income level are not good predictors of national health insurance claim. The outcome of the study shows that sex, age, marital status, distance and length of stay at the hospital are statistically significant in the determination of the Ghana National health insurance premiums since they considerably influence claims. We recommended, among other things that, the National Health Insurance Authority should facilitate the institutionalization of the collection of appropriate data on a continuous basis to help in the determination of future premiums.

  13. Regression analysis of radiological parameters in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhargava, Pradeep; Verma, R.K.; Joshi, M.L.

    2003-01-01

    Indian Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) have now attained maturity in their operations. Indian PHWR operation started in the year 1972. At present there are 12 operating PHWRs collectively producing nearly 2400 MWe. Sufficient radiological data are available for analysis to draw inferences which may be utilised for better understanding of radiological parameters influencing the collective internal dose. Tritium is the main contributor to the occupational internal dose originating in PHWRs. An attempt has been made to establish the relationship between radiological parameters, which may be useful to draw inferences about the internal dose. Regression analysis have been done to find out the relationship, if it exist, among the following variables: A. Specific tritium activity of heavy water (Moderator and PHT) and tritium concentration in air at various work locations. B. Internal collective occupational dose and tritium release to environment through air route. C. Specific tritium activity of heavy water (Moderator and PHT) and collective internal occupational dose. For this purpose multivariate regression analysis has been carried out. D. Tritium concentration in air at various work location and tritium release to environment through air route. For this purpose multivariate regression analysis has been carried out. This analysis reveals that collective internal dose has got very good correlation with the tritium activity release to the environment through air route. Whereas no correlation has been found between specific tritium activity in the heavy water systems and collective internal occupational dose. The good correlation has been found in case D and F test reveals that it is not by chance. (author)

  14. A test of inflated zeros for Poisson regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hua; Zhang, Hui; Ye, Peng; Tang, Wan

    2017-01-01

    Excessive zeros are common in practice and may cause overdispersion and invalidate inference when fitting Poisson regression models. There is a large body of literature on zero-inflated Poisson models. However, methods for testing whether there are excessive zeros are less well developed. The Vuong test comparing a Poisson and a zero-inflated Poisson model is commonly applied in practice. However, the type I error of the test often deviates seriously from the nominal level, rendering serious doubts on the validity of the test in such applications. In this paper, we develop a new approach for testing inflated zeros under the Poisson model. Unlike the Vuong test for inflated zeros, our method does not require a zero-inflated Poisson model to perform the test. Simulation studies show that when compared with the Vuong test our approach not only better at controlling type I error rate, but also yield more power.

  15. Marginal regression analysis of recurrent events with coarsened censoring times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, X Joan; Rosychuk, Rhonda J

    2016-12-01

    Motivated by an ongoing pediatric mental health care (PMHC) study, this article presents weakly structured methods for analyzing doubly censored recurrent event data where only coarsened information on censoring is available. The study extracted administrative records of emergency department visits from provincial health administrative databases. The available information of each individual subject is limited to a subject-specific time window determined up to concealed data. To evaluate time-dependent effect of exposures, we adapt the local linear estimation with right censored survival times under the Cox regression model with time-varying coefficients (cf. Cai and Sun, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 2003, 30, 93-111). We establish the pointwise consistency and asymptotic normality of the regression parameter estimator, and examine its performance by simulation. The PMHC study illustrates the proposed approach throughout the article. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  16. A Technique of Fuzzy C-Mean in Multiple Linear Regression Model toward Paddy Yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syazwan Wahab, Nur; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Mohamad, Mahathir; Amira Azmi, Nur; Che Him, Norziha; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Ali, Maselan

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we propose a hybrid model which is a combination of multiple linear regression model and fuzzy c-means method. This research involved a relationship between 20 variates of the top soil that are analyzed prior to planting of paddy yields at standard fertilizer rates. Data used were from the multi-location trials for rice carried out by MARDI at major paddy granary in Peninsular Malaysia during the period from 2009 to 2012. Missing observations were estimated using mean estimation techniques. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression model and a combination of multiple linear regression model and fuzzy c-means method. Analysis of normality and multicollinearity indicate that the data is normally scattered without multicollinearity among independent variables. Analysis of fuzzy c-means cluster the yield of paddy into two clusters before the multiple linear regression model can be used. The comparison between two method indicate that the hybrid of multiple linear regression model and fuzzy c-means method outperform the multiple linear regression model with lower value of mean square error.

  17. Multivariate Frequency-Severity Regression Models in Insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward W. Frees

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In insurance and related industries including healthcare, it is common to have several outcome measures that the analyst wishes to understand using explanatory variables. For example, in automobile insurance, an accident may result in payments for damage to one’s own vehicle, damage to another party’s vehicle, or personal injury. It is also common to be interested in the frequency of accidents in addition to the severity of the claim amounts. This paper synthesizes and extends the literature on multivariate frequency-severity regression modeling with a focus on insurance industry applications. Regression models for understanding the distribution of each outcome continue to be developed yet there now exists a solid body of literature for the marginal outcomes. This paper contributes to this body of literature by focusing on the use of a copula for modeling the dependence among these outcomes; a major advantage of this tool is that it preserves the body of work established for marginal models. We illustrate this approach using data from the Wisconsin Local Government Property Insurance Fund. This fund offers insurance protection for (i property; (ii motor vehicle; and (iii contractors’ equipment claims. In addition to several claim types and frequency-severity components, outcomes can be further categorized by time and space, requiring complex dependency modeling. We find significant dependencies for these data; specifically, we find that dependencies among lines are stronger than the dependencies between the frequency and average severity within each line.

  18. Augmented Beta rectangular regression models: A Bayesian perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jue; Luo, Sheng

    2016-01-01

    Mixed effects Beta regression models based on Beta distributions have been widely used to analyze longitudinal percentage or proportional data ranging between zero and one. However, Beta distributions are not flexible to extreme outliers or excessive events around tail areas, and they do not account for the presence of the boundary values zeros and ones because these values are not in the support of the Beta distributions. To address these issues, we propose a mixed effects model using Beta rectangular distribution and augment it with the probabilities of zero and one. We conduct extensive simulation studies to assess the performance of mixed effects models based on both the Beta and Beta rectangular distributions under various scenarios. The simulation studies suggest that the regression models based on Beta rectangular distributions improve the accuracy of parameter estimates in the presence of outliers and heavy tails. The proposed models are applied to the motivating Neuroprotection Exploratory Trials in Parkinson's Disease (PD) Long-term Study-1 (LS-1 study, n = 1741), developed by The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke Exploratory Trials in Parkinson's Disease (NINDS NET-PD) network. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. Bayesian semiparametric regression models to characterize molecular evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Datta Saheli

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical models and methods that associate changes in the physicochemical properties of amino acids with natural selection at the molecular level typically do not take into account the correlations between such properties. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical regression model with a generalization of the Dirichlet process prior on the distribution of the regression coefficients that describes the relationship between the changes in amino acid distances and natural selection in protein-coding DNA sequence alignments. Results The Bayesian semiparametric approach is illustrated with simulated data and the abalone lysin sperm data. Our method identifies groups of properties which, for this particular dataset, have a similar effect on evolution. The model also provides nonparametric site-specific estimates for the strength of conservation of these properties. Conclusions The model described here is distinguished by its ability to handle a large number of amino acid properties simultaneously, while taking into account that such data can be correlated. The multi-level clustering ability of the model allows for appealing interpretations of the results in terms of properties that are roughly equivalent from the standpoint of molecular evolution.

  20. Regularized multivariate regression models with skew-t error distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Lianfu

    2014-06-01

    We consider regularization of the parameters in multivariate linear regression models with the errors having a multivariate skew-t distribution. An iterative penalized likelihood procedure is proposed for constructing sparse estimators of both the regression coefficient and inverse scale matrices simultaneously. The sparsity is introduced through penalizing the negative log-likelihood by adding L1-penalties on the entries of the two matrices. Taking advantage of the hierarchical representation of skew-t distributions, and using the expectation conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm, we reduce the problem to penalized normal likelihood and develop a procedure to minimize the ensuing objective function. Using a simulation study the performance of the method is assessed, and the methodology is illustrated using a real data set with a 24-dimensional response vector. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

  1. Comparing Methodologies for Developing an Early Warning System: Classification and Regression Tree Model versus Logistic Regression. REL 2015-077

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules by…

  2. Linear regression metamodeling as a tool to summarize and present simulation model results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalal, Hawre; Dowd, Bryan; Sainfort, François; Kuntz, Karen M

    2013-10-01

    Modelers lack a tool to systematically and clearly present complex model results, including those from sensitivity analyses. The objective was to propose linear regression metamodeling as a tool to increase transparency of decision analytic models and better communicate their results. We used a simplified cancer cure model to demonstrate our approach. The model computed the lifetime cost and benefit of 3 treatment options for cancer patients. We simulated 10,000 cohorts in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and regressed the model outcomes on the standardized input parameter values in a set of regression analyses. We used the regression coefficients to describe measures of sensitivity analyses, including threshold and parameter sensitivity analyses. We also compared the results of the PSA to deterministic full-factorial and one-factor-at-a-time designs. The regression intercept represented the estimated base-case outcome, and the other coefficients described the relative parameter uncertainty in the model. We defined simple relationships that compute the average and incremental net benefit of each intervention. Metamodeling produced outputs similar to traditional deterministic 1-way or 2-way sensitivity analyses but was more reliable since it used all parameter values. Linear regression metamodeling is a simple, yet powerful, tool that can assist modelers in communicating model characteristics and sensitivity analyses.

  3. Quality of life in breast cancer patients--a quantile regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin; Safaee, Azadeh; Moghimi-Dehkordi, Bijan; Zeighami, Bahram; Faghihzadeh, Soghrat; Tabatabaee, Hamid Reza; Pourhoseingholi, Asma

    2008-01-01

    Quality of life study has an important role in health care especially in chronic diseases, in clinical judgment and in medical resources supplying. Statistical tools like linear regression are widely used to assess the predictors of quality of life. But when the response is not normal the results are misleading. The aim of this study is to determine the predictors of quality of life in breast cancer patients, using quantile regression model and compare to linear regression. A cross-sectional study conducted on 119 breast cancer patients that admitted and treated in chemotherapy ward of Namazi hospital in Shiraz. We used QLQ-C30 questionnaire to assessment quality of life in these patients. A quantile regression was employed to assess the assocciated factors and the results were compared to linear regression. All analysis carried out using SAS. The mean score for the global health status for breast cancer patients was 64.92+/-11.42. Linear regression showed that only grade of tumor, occupational status, menopausal status, financial difficulties and dyspnea were statistically significant. In spite of linear regression, financial difficulties were not significant in quantile regression analysis and dyspnea was only significant for first quartile. Also emotion functioning and duration of disease statistically predicted the QOL score in the third quartile. The results have demonstrated that using quantile regression leads to better interpretation and richer inference about predictors of the breast cancer patient quality of life.

  4. Learning Supervised Topic Models for Classification and Regression from Crowds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Filipe; Lourenco, Mariana; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco C

    2017-12-01

    The growing need to analyze large collections of documents has led to great developments in topic modeling. Since documents are frequently associated with other related variables, such as labels or ratings, much interest has been placed on supervised topic models. However, the nature of most annotation tasks, prone to ambiguity and noise, often with high volumes of documents, deem learning under a single-annotator assumption unrealistic or unpractical for most real-world applications. In this article, we propose two supervised topic models, one for classification and another for regression problems, which account for the heterogeneity and biases among different annotators that are encountered in practice when learning from crowds. We develop an efficient stochastic variational inference algorithm that is able to scale to very large datasets, and we empirically demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model over state-of-the-art approaches.

  5. Continuous validation of ASTEC containment models and regression testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowack, Holger; Reinke, Nils; Sonnenkalb, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the ASTEC (Accident Source Term Evaluation Code) development at GRS is primarily on the containment module CPA (Containment Part of ASTEC), whose modelling is to a large extent based on the GRS containment code COCOSYS (COntainment COde SYStem). Validation is usually understood as the approval of the modelling capabilities by calculations of appropriate experiments done by external users different from the code developers. During the development process of ASTEC CPA, bugs and unintended side effects may occur, which leads to changes in the results of the initially conducted validation. Due to the involvement of a considerable number of developers in the coding of ASTEC modules, validation of the code alone, even if executed repeatedly, is not sufficient. Therefore, a regression testing procedure has been implemented in order to ensure that the initially obtained validation results are still valid with succeeding code versions. Within the regression testing procedure, calculations of experiments and plant sequences are performed with the same input deck but applying two different code versions. For every test-case the up-to-date code version is compared to the preceding one on the basis of physical parameters deemed to be characteristic for the test-case under consideration. In the case of post-calculations of experiments also a comparison to experimental data is carried out. Three validation cases from the regression testing procedure are presented within this paper. The very good post-calculation of the HDR E11.1 experiment shows the high quality modelling of thermal-hydraulics in ASTEC CPA. Aerosol behaviour is validated on the BMC VANAM M3 experiment, and the results show also a very good agreement with experimental data. Finally, iodine behaviour is checked in the validation test-case of the THAI IOD-11 experiment. Within this test-case, the comparison of the ASTEC versions V2.0r1 and V2.0r2 shows how an error was detected by the regression testing

  6. Modeling of the Monthly Rainfall-Runoff Process Through Regressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Campos-Aranda Daniel Francisco

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available To solve the problems associated with the assessment of water resources of a river, the modeling of the rainfall-runoff process (RRP allows the deduction of runoff missing data and to extend its record, since generally the information available on precipitation is larger. It also enables the estimation of inputs to reservoirs, when their building led to the suppression of the gauging station. The simplest mathematical model that can be set for the RRP is the linear regression or curve on a monthly basis. Such a model is described in detail and is calibrated with the simultaneous record of monthly rainfall and runoff in Ballesmi hydrometric station, which covers 35 years. Since the runoff of this station has an important contribution from the spring discharge, the record is corrected first by removing that contribution. In order to do this a procedure was developed based either on the monthly average regional runoff coefficients or on nearby and similar watershed; in this case the Tancuilín gauging station was used. Both stations belong to the Partial Hydrologic Region No. 26 (Lower Rio Panuco and are located within the state of San Luis Potosi, México. The study performed indicates that the monthly regression model, due to its conceptual approach, faithfully reproduces monthly average runoff volumes and achieves an excellent approximation in relation to the dispersion, proved by calculation of the means and standard deviations.

  7. Genetic evaluation of European quails by random regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flaviana Miranda Gonçalves

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to compare different random regression models, defined from different classes of heterogeneity of variance combined with different Legendre polynomial orders for the estimate of (covariance of quails. The data came from 28,076 observations of 4,507 female meat quails of the LF1 lineage. Quail body weights were determined at birth and 1, 14, 21, 28, 35 and 42 days of age. Six different classes of residual variance were fitted to Legendre polynomial functions (orders ranging from 2 to 6 to determine which model had the best fit to describe the (covariance structures as a function of time. According to the evaluated criteria (AIC, BIC and LRT, the model with six classes of residual variances and of sixth-order Legendre polynomial was the best fit. The estimated additive genetic variance increased from birth to 28 days of age, and dropped slightly from 35 to 42 days. The heritability estimates decreased along the growth curve and changed from 0.51 (1 day to 0.16 (42 days. Animal genetic and permanent environmental correlation estimates between weights and age classes were always high and positive, except for birth weight. The sixth order Legendre polynomial, along with the residual variance divided into six classes was the best fit for the growth rate curve of meat quails; therefore, they should be considered for breeding evaluation processes by random regression models.

  8. OPLS statistical model versus linear regression to assess sonographic predictors of stroke prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vajargah, Kianoush Fathi; Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Mehdizadeh-Esfanjani, Robab; Savadi-Oskouei, Daryoush; Farhoudi, Mehdi

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to assess the comparable applicability of orthogonal projections to latent structures (OPLS) statistical model vs traditional linear regression in order to investigate the role of trans cranial doppler (TCD) sonography in predicting ischemic stroke prognosis. The study was conducted on 116 ischemic stroke patients admitted to a specialty neurology ward. The Unified Neurological Stroke Scale was used once for clinical evaluation on the first week of admission and again six months later. All data was primarily analyzed using simple linear regression and later considered for multivariate analysis using PLS/OPLS models through the SIMCA P+12 statistical software package. The linear regression analysis results used for the identification of TCD predictors of stroke prognosis were confirmed through the OPLS modeling technique. Moreover, in comparison to linear regression, the OPLS model appeared to have higher sensitivity in detecting the predictors of ischemic stroke prognosis and detected several more predictors. Applying the OPLS model made it possible to use both single TCD measures/indicators and arbitrarily dichotomized measures of TCD single vessel involvement as well as the overall TCD result. In conclusion, the authors recommend PLS/OPLS methods as complementary rather than alternative to the available classical regression models such as linear regression.

  9. Interpreting parameters in the logistic regression model with random effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Klaus; Petersen, Jørgen Holm; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2000-01-01

    interpretation, interval odds ratio, logistic regression, median odds ratio, normally distributed random effects......interpretation, interval odds ratio, logistic regression, median odds ratio, normally distributed random effects...

  10. Finding determinants of audit delay by pooled OLS regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Vuko, Tina; Čular, Marko

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to investigate determinants of audit delay. Audit delay is measured as the length of time (i.e. the number of calendar days) from the fiscal year-end to the audit report date. It is important to understand factors that influence audit delay since it directly affects the timeliness of financial reporting. The research is conducted on a sample of Croatian listed companies, covering the period of four years (from 2008 to 2011). We use pooled OLS regression analysis, mode...

  11. Modelling fourier regression for time series data- a case study: modelling inflation in foods sector in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prahutama, Alan; Suparti; Wahyu Utami, Tiani

    2018-03-01

    Regression analysis is an analysis to model the relationship between response variables and predictor variables. The parametric approach to the regression model is very strict with the assumption, but nonparametric regression model isn’t need assumption of model. Time series data is the data of a variable that is observed based on a certain time, so if the time series data wanted to be modeled by regression, then we should determined the response and predictor variables first. Determination of the response variable in time series is variable in t-th (yt), while the predictor variable is a significant lag. In nonparametric regression modeling, one developing approach is to use the Fourier series approach. One of the advantages of nonparametric regression approach using Fourier series is able to overcome data having trigonometric distribution. In modeling using Fourier series needs parameter of K. To determine the number of K can be used Generalized Cross Validation method. In inflation modeling for the transportation sector, communication and financial services using Fourier series yields an optimal K of 120 parameters with R-square 99%. Whereas if it was modeled by multiple linear regression yield R-square 90%.

  12. Learning Supervised Topic Models for Classification and Regression from Crowds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodrigues, Filipe; Lourenco, Mariana; Ribeiro, Bernardete

    2017-01-01

    problems, which account for the heterogeneity and biases among different annotators that are encountered in practice when learning from crowds. We develop an efficient stochastic variational inference algorithm that is able to scale to very large datasets, and we empirically demonstrate the advantages...... annotation tasks, prone to ambiguity and noise, often with high volumes of documents, deem learning under a single-annotator assumption unrealistic or unpractical for most real-world applications. In this article, we propose two supervised topic models, one for classification and another for regression...

  13. Preference learning with evolutionary Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abou-Zleikha, Mohamed; Shaker, Noor; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel approach for pairwise preference learning through combining an evolutionary method with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS). Collecting users' feedback through pairwise preferences is recommended over other ranking approaches as this method is more appealing...... for function approximation as well as being relatively easy to interpret. MARS models are evolved based on their efficiency in learning pairwise data. The method is tested on two datasets that collectively provide pairwise preference data of five cognitive states expressed by users. The method is analysed...

  14. Analysis of the temporal regression of the QRS widening induced by bupivacaine after Intralipid administration. Study in an experimental porcine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaballos, M; Sevilla, R; González, J; Callejo, D; de Diego, C; Almendral, J; Quintela, O; Anadón, M J

    2016-01-01

    The principal mechanism of cardiac toxicity of bupivacaine relates to the blockade of myocardial sodium channels, which leads to an increase in the QRS duration. Recently, experimental studies suggest that lipid emulsion is effective in reversing bupivacaine cardiac toxicity. We aimed to evaluate the temporal evolution of the QRS widening induced by bupivacaine with the administration of Intralipid. Twelve pigs were anesthetized with intravenous sodium thiopental 5mg kg(-1) and sevoflurane 1 MAC (2.6%). Femoral artery and vein were canalized for invasive monitoring, analysis of blood gases and determination of bupivacaine levels. After instrumentation and monitoring, a bupivacaine bolus of 4-6 mg kg(-1) was administered in order to induce a 150% increase in QRS duration (defined as the toxic point). The pigs were randomized into two groups of six individuals. Intralipid group (IL) received 1.5 mL kg(-1)of IL over one minute, followed by an infusion of 0.25 mL kg min(-1). Control group (C) received the same volume of a saline solution. The electrocardiographic parameters were recorded, and blood samples were taken after bupivacaine and 1, 5, 10 and 30 minutes after Intralipid/saline administration. Bupivacaine (4.33±0.81 mg/kg in IL group and 4.66±1.15 mg/kg in C group) induced similar electrocardiographic changes in both groups; mean maximal percent increase in QRS interval was 184±62% in IL group, and 230±56% in control group (NS). Lipid administration reversed the QRS widening previously impaired by bupivacaine. After ten minutes of the administration of IL, the mean QRS interval decreased to 132±56% vs. 15±76% relative to the maximum widening induced by bupivacaine, in IL and C group, respectively. Intralipid reversed the lengthening of QRS interval induced by the injection of bupivacaine. Time to normalization of electrocardiographic parameters can last more than 10 minutes. While the phenomena of cardiac toxicity persist, resuscitation measures and

  15. Estimasi Model Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR dengan Metode Generalized Least Square (GLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ade Widyaningsih

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Regression analysis is a statistical tool that is used to determine the relationship between two or more quantitative variables so that one variable can be predicted from the other variables. A method that can used to obtain a good estimation in the regression analysis is ordinary least squares method. The least squares method is used to estimate the parameters of one or more regression but relationships among the errors in the response of other estimators are not allowed. One way to overcome this problem is Seemingly Unrelated Regression model (SUR in which parameters are estimated using Generalized Least Square (GLS. In this study, the author applies SUR model using GLS method on world gasoline demand data. The author obtains that SUR using GLS is better than OLS because SUR produce smaller errors than the OLS.

  16. Estimasi Model Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR dengan Metode Generalized Least Square (GLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ade Widyaningsih

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Regression analysis is a statistical tool that is used to determine the relationship between two or more quantitative variables so that one variable can be predicted from the other variables. A method that can used to obtain a good estimation in the regression analysis is ordinary least squares method. The least squares method is used to estimate the parameters of one or more regression but relationships among the errors in the response of other estimators are not allowed. One way to overcome this problem is Seemingly Unrelated Regression model (SUR in which parameters are estimated using Generalized Least Square (GLS. In this study, the author applies SUR model using GLS method on world gasoline demand data. The author obtains that SUR using GLS is better than OLS because SUR produce smaller errors than the OLS.

  17. Testing Mediation Using Multiple Regression and Structural Equation Modeling Analyses in Secondary Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Spencer D.

    2011-01-01

    Mediation analysis in child and adolescent development research is possible using large secondary data sets. This article provides an overview of two statistical methods commonly used to test mediated effects in secondary analysis: multiple regression and structural equation modeling (SEM). Two empirical studies are presented to illustrate the…

  18. A brief introduction to regression designs and mixed-effects modelling by a recent convert

    OpenAIRE

    Balling, Laura Winther

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses the advantages of multiple regression designs over the factorial designs traditionally used in many psycholinguistic experiments. It is shown that regression designs are typically more informative, statistically more powerful and better suited to the analysis of naturalistic tasks. The advantages of including both fixed and random effects are demonstrated with reference to linear mixed-effects models, and problems of collinearity, variable distribution and variable sele...

  19. An appraisal of convergence failures in the application of logistic regression model in published manuscripts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusuf, O B; Bamgboye, E A; Afolabi, R F; Shodimu, M A

    2014-09-01

    Logistic regression model is widely used in health research for description and predictive purposes. Unfortunately, most researchers are sometimes not aware that the underlying principles of the techniques have failed when the algorithm for maximum likelihood does not converge. Young researchers particularly postgraduate students may not know why separation problem whether quasi or complete occurs, how to identify it and how to fix it. This study was designed to critically evaluate convergence issues in articles that employed logistic regression analysis published in an African Journal of Medicine and medical sciences between 2004 and 2013. Problems of quasi or complete separation were described and were illustrated with the National Demographic and Health Survey dataset. A critical evaluation of articles that employed logistic regression was conducted. A total of 581 articles was reviewed, of which 40 (6.9%) used binary logistic regression. Twenty-four (60.0%) stated the use of logistic regression model in the methodology while none of the articles assessed model fit. Only 3 (12.5%) properly described the procedures. Of the 40 that used the logistic regression model, the problem of convergence occurred in 6 (15.0%) of the articles. Logistic regression tends to be poorly reported in studies published between 2004 and 2013. Our findings showed that the procedure may not be well understood by researchers since very few described the process in their reports and may be totally unaware of the problem of convergence or how to deal with it.

  20. Analysis of γ spectra in airborne radioactivity measurements using multiple linear regressions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bao Min; Shi Quanlin; Zhang Jiamei

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the net peak counts calculating of nuclide 137 Cs at 662 keV of γ spectra in airborne radioactivity measurements using multiple linear regressions. Mathematic model is founded by analyzing every factor that has contribution to Cs peak counts in spectra, and multiple linear regression function is established. Calculating process adopts stepwise regression, and the indistinctive factors are eliminated by F check. The regression results and its uncertainty are calculated using Least Square Estimation, then the Cs peak net counts and its uncertainty can be gotten. The analysis results for experimental spectrum are displayed. The influence of energy shift and energy resolution on the analyzing result is discussed. In comparison with the stripping spectra method, multiple linear regression method needn't stripping radios, and the calculating result has relation with the counts in Cs peak only, and the calculating uncertainty is reduced. (authors)

  1. Use of empirical likelihood to calibrate auxiliary information in partly linear monotone regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Baojiang; Qin, Jing

    2014-05-10

    In statistical analysis, a regression model is needed if one is interested in finding the relationship between a response variable and covariates. When the response depends on the covariate, then it may also depend on the function of this covariate. If one has no knowledge of this functional form but expect for monotonic increasing or decreasing, then the isotonic regression model is preferable. Estimation of parameters for isotonic regression models is based on the pool-adjacent-violators algorithm (PAVA), where the monotonicity constraints are built in. With missing data, people often employ the augmented estimating method to improve estimation efficiency by incorporating auxiliary information through a working regression model. However, under the framework of the isotonic regression model, the PAVA does not work as the monotonicity constraints are violated. In this paper, we develop an empirical likelihood-based method for isotonic regression model to incorporate the auxiliary information. Because the monotonicity constraints still hold, the PAVA can be used for parameter estimation. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method can yield more efficient estimates, and in some situations, the efficiency improvement is substantial. We apply this method to a dementia study. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Modeling Governance KB with CATPCA to Overcome Multicollinearity in the Logistic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khikmah, L.; Wijayanto, H.; Syafitri, U. D.

    2017-04-01

    The problem often encounters in logistic regression modeling are multicollinearity problems. Data that have multicollinearity between explanatory variables with the result in the estimation of parameters to be bias. Besides, the multicollinearity will result in error in the classification. In general, to overcome multicollinearity in regression used stepwise regression. They are also another method to overcome multicollinearity which involves all variable for prediction. That is Principal Component Analysis (PCA). However, classical PCA in only for numeric data. Its data are categorical, one method to solve the problems is Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CATPCA). Data were used in this research were a part of data Demographic and Population Survey Indonesia (IDHS) 2012. This research focuses on the characteristic of women of using the contraceptive methods. Classification results evaluated using Area Under Curve (AUC) values. The higher the AUC value, the better. Based on AUC values, the classification of the contraceptive method using stepwise method (58.66%) is better than the logistic regression model (57.39%) and CATPCA (57.39%). Evaluation of the results of logistic regression using sensitivity, shows the opposite where CATPCA method (99.79%) is better than logistic regression method (92.43%) and stepwise (92.05%). Therefore in this study focuses on major class classification (using a contraceptive method), then the selected model is CATPCA because it can raise the level of the major class model accuracy.

  3. High-throughput quantitative biochemical characterization of algal biomass by NIR spectroscopy; multiple linear regression and multivariate linear regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurens, L M L; Wolfrum, E J

    2013-12-18

    One of the challenges associated with microalgal biomass characterization and the comparison of microalgal strains and conversion processes is the rapid determination of the composition of algae. We have developed and applied a high-throughput screening technology based on near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for the rapid and accurate determination of algal biomass composition. We show that NIR spectroscopy can accurately predict the full composition using multivariate linear regression analysis of varying lipid, protein, and carbohydrate content of algal biomass samples from three strains. We also demonstrate a high quality of predictions of an independent validation set. A high-throughput 96-well configuration for spectroscopy gives equally good prediction relative to a ring-cup configuration, and thus, spectra can be obtained from as little as 10-20 mg of material. We found that lipids exhibit a dominant, distinct, and unique fingerprint in the NIR spectrum that allows for the use of single and multiple linear regression of respective wavelengths for the prediction of the biomass lipid content. This is not the case for carbohydrate and protein content, and thus, the use of multivariate statistical modeling approaches remains necessary.

  4. Análise de agrupamento na seleção de modelos de regressão não-lineares para curvas de crescimento de ovinos cruzados Cluster analysis applied to nonlinear regression models selection to growth curves of crossed lambs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Gomes da Silveira

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo teve como objetivo utilizar a análise de agrupamento para classificar modelos de regressão não-lineares usados para descrever a curva de crescimento de ovinos cruzados, tendo em vista os resultados de diferentes avaliadores de qualidade de ajuste. Para tanto, utilizaram-se dados de peso-idade dos seguintes cruzamentos entre raças de ovinos de corte: Dorper x Morada Nova, Dorper x Rabo Largo e Dorper x Santa Inês. Após a indicação do melhor modelo, objetivou-se ainda aplicar a técnica de identidade de modelos a fim de identificar o cruzamento mais produtivo. Foram ajustados doze modelos não-lineares, cuja qualidade de ajuste foi medida pelo coeficiente de determinação ajustado, critérios de informação de Akaike e Bayesiano, erro quadrático médio de predição e coeficiente de determinação de predição. A análise de agrupamento indicou o modelo Richards como o mais adequado para descrever as curvas de crescimento dos três grupos genéticos considerados, e os testes de identidade de modelos indicaram o cruzamento Dorper x Santa Inês como sendo o mais indicado para a pecuária local.This study had the objectives to use the cluster analysis in order to classify nonlinear regression models used to describe the growth curve in relation to different quality fit evaluators. Were utilized weight-age data from the following crossbred beef lambs Dorper x Morada Nova, Dorper x Rabo Largo e Dorper x Santa Inês. After the choice of the best model, we aimed also to apply the model identity in order to identify the most efficient crossbred group. Eleven nonlinear models were used, whose fit quality was measured by determination coefficient, Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, mean quadratic error of prediction and predicted determination coefficient. The cluster analysis indicated the Richards as the best model for the three data sets, and the model identity tests revealed that the Dorper x Santa In

  5. Complex Environmental Data Modelling Using Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanevski, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    The research deals with an adaptation and application of Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) to high dimensional environmental data. GRNN [1,2,3] are efficient modelling tools both for spatial and temporal data and are based on nonparametric kernel methods closely related to classical Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Adaptive GRNN, using anisotropic kernels, can be also applied for features selection tasks when working with high dimensional data [1,3]. In the present research Adaptive GRNN are used to study geospatial data predictability and relevant feature selection using both simulated and real data case studies. The original raw data were either three dimensional monthly precipitation data or monthly wind speeds embedded into 13 dimensional space constructed by geographical coordinates and geo-features calculated from digital elevation model. GRNN were applied in two different ways: 1) adaptive GRNN with the resulting list of features ordered according to their relevancy; and 2) adaptive GRNN applied to evaluate all possible models N [in case of wind fields N=(2^13 -1)=8191] and rank them according to the cross-validation error. In both cases training were carried out applying leave-one-out procedure. An important result of the study is that the set of the most relevant features depends on the month (strong seasonal effect) and year. The predictabilities of precipitation and wind field patterns, estimated using the cross-validation and testing errors of raw and shuffled data, were studied in detail. The results of both approaches were qualitatively and quantitatively compared. In conclusion, Adaptive GRNN with their ability to select features and efficient modelling of complex high dimensional data can be widely used in automatic/on-line mapping and as an integrated part of environmental decision support systems. 1. Kanevski M., Pozdnoukhov A., Timonin V. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. Theory, applications and software. EPFL Press

  6. Bias and Uncertainty in Regression-Calibrated Models of Groundwater Flow in Heterogeneous Media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cooley, R.L.; Christensen, Steen

    2006-01-01

    small. Model error is accounted for in the weighted nonlinear regression methodology developed to estimate θ* and assess model uncertainties by incorporating the second-moment matrix of the model errors into the weight matrix. Techniques developed by statisticians to analyze classical nonlinear...... are reduced in magnitude. Biases, correction factors, and confidence and prediction intervals were obtained for a test problem for which model error is large to test robustness of the methodology. Numerical results conform with the theoretical analysis....

  7. Multiplication factor versus regression analysis in stature estimation from hand and foot dimensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishan, Kewal; Kanchan, Tanuj; Sharma, Abhilasha

    2012-05-01

    Estimation of stature is an important parameter in identification of human remains in forensic examinations. The present study is aimed to compare the reliability and accuracy of stature estimation and to demonstrate the variability in estimated stature and actual stature using multiplication factor and regression analysis methods. The study is based on a sample of 246 subjects (123 males and 123 females) from North India aged between 17 and 20 years. Four anthropometric measurements; hand length, hand breadth, foot length and foot breadth taken on the left side in each subject were included in the study. Stature was measured using standard anthropometric techniques. Multiplication factors were calculated and linear regression models were derived for estimation of stature from hand and foot dimensions. Derived multiplication factors and regression formula were applied to the hand and foot measurements in the study sample. The estimated stature from the multiplication factors and regression analysis was compared with the actual stature to find the error in estimated stature. The results indicate that the range of error in estimation of stature from regression analysis method is less than that of multiplication factor method thus, confirming that the regression analysis method is better than multiplication factor analysis in stature estimation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  8. Genomic breeding value estimation using nonparametric additive regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solberg Trygve

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Genomic selection refers to the use of genomewide dense markers for breeding value estimation and subsequently for selection. The main challenge of genomic breeding value estimation is the estimation of many effects from a limited number of observations. Bayesian methods have been proposed to successfully cope with these challenges. As an alternative class of models, non- and semiparametric models were recently introduced. The present study investigated the ability of nonparametric additive regression models to predict genomic breeding values. The genotypes were modelled for each marker or pair of flanking markers (i.e. the predictors separately. The nonparametric functions for the predictors were estimated simultaneously using additive model theory, applying a binomial kernel. The optimal degree of smoothing was determined by bootstrapping. A mutation-drift-balance simulation was carried out. The breeding values of the last generation (genotyped was predicted using data from the next last generation (genotyped and phenotyped. The results show moderate to high accuracies of the predicted breeding values. A determination of predictor specific degree of smoothing increased the accuracy.

  9. Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

    2017-06-20

    Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the worldwide distribution of NO 2 exposure and associated impacts on health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO 2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R 2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n = 10,000) demonstrated a robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R 2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R 2 within 11%) where NO 2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO 2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions, but major roads within 100 m and satellite-derived NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO 2 monitoring data or models.

  10. Semiparametric regression analysis of interval-censored competing risks data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Lu; Lin, Dan-Yu; Zeng, Donglin

    2017-09-01

    Interval-censored competing risks data arise when each study subject may experience an event or failure from one of several causes and the failure time is not observed directly but rather is known to lie in an interval between two examinations. We formulate the effects of possibly time-varying (external) covariates on the cumulative incidence or sub-distribution function of competing risks (i.e., the marginal probability of failure from a specific cause) through a broad class of semiparametric regression models that captures both proportional and non-proportional hazards structures for the sub-distribution. We allow each subject to have an arbitrary number of examinations and accommodate missing information on the cause of failure. We consider nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation and devise a fast and stable EM-type algorithm for its computation. We then establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and semiparametric efficiency of the resulting estimators for the regression parameters by appealing to modern empirical process theory. In addition, we show through extensive simulation studies that the proposed methods perform well in realistic situations. Finally, we provide an application to a study on HIV-1 infection with different viral subtypes. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  11. Misspecified poisson regression models for large-scale registry data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grøn, Randi; Gerds, Thomas A.; Andersen, Per K.

    2016-01-01

    working models that are then likely misspecified. To support and improve conclusions drawn from such models, we discuss methods for sensitivity analysis, for estimation of average exposure effects using aggregated data, and a semi-parametric bootstrap method to obtain robust standard errors. The methods...

  12. Sparse Regression by Projection and Sparse Discriminant Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Qi, Xin; Luo, Ruiyan; Carroll, Raymond J.; Zhao, Hongyu

    2015-01-01

    predictions. We introduce a new framework, regression by projection, and its sparse version to analyze high-dimensional data. The unique nature of this framework is that the directions of the regression coefficients are inferred first, and the lengths

  13. A Gompertz regression model for fern spores germination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel y Galán, Jose María

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Germination is one of the most important biological processes for both seed and spore plants, also for fungi. At present, mathematical models of germination have been developed in fungi, bryophytes and several plant species. However, ferns are the only group whose germination has never been modelled. In this work we develop a regression model of the germination of fern spores. We have found that for Blechnum serrulatum, Blechnum yungense, Cheilanthes pilosa, Niphidium macbridei and Polypodium feuillei species the Gompertz growth model describe satisfactorily cumulative germination. An important result is that regression parameters are independent of fern species and the model is not affected by intraspecific variation. Our results show that the Gompertz curve represents a general germination model for all the non-green spore leptosporangiate ferns, including in the paper a discussion about the physiological and ecological meaning of the model.La germinación es uno de los procesos biológicos más relevantes tanto para las plantas con esporas, como para las plantas con semillas y los hongos. Hasta el momento, se han desarrollado modelos de germinación para hongos, briofitos y diversas especies de espermatófitos. Los helechos son el único grupo de plantas cuya germinación nunca ha sido modelizada. En este trabajo se desarrolla un modelo de regresión para explicar la germinación de las esporas de helechos. Observamos que para las especies Blechnum serrulatum, Blechnum yungense, Cheilanthes pilosa, Niphidium macbridei y Polypodium feuillei el modelo de crecimiento de Gompertz describe satisfactoriamente la germinación acumulativa. Un importante resultado es que los parámetros de la regresión son independientes de la especie y que el modelo no está afectado por variación intraespecífica. Por lo tanto, los resultados del trabajo muestran que la curva de Gompertz puede representar un modelo general para todos los helechos leptosporangiados

  14. THE REGRESSION MODEL OF IRAN LIBRARIES ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahani, Mohammad Ali; Yaminfirooz, Mousa; Siamian, Hasan

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to drawing a regression model of organizational climate of central libraries of Iran's universities. This study is an applied research. The statistical population of this study consisted of 96 employees of the central libraries of Iran's public universities selected among the 117 universities affiliated to the Ministry of Health by Stratified Sampling method (510 people). Climate Qual localized questionnaire was used as research tools. For predicting the organizational climate pattern of the libraries is used from the multivariate linear regression and track diagram. of the 9 variables affecting organizational climate, 5 variables of innovation, teamwork, customer service, psychological safety and deep diversity play a major role in prediction of the organizational climate of Iran's libraries. The results also indicate that each of these variables with different coefficient have the power to predict organizational climate but the climate score of psychological safety (0.94) plays a very crucial role in predicting the organizational climate. Track diagram showed that five variables of teamwork, customer service, psychological safety, deep diversity and innovation directly effects on the organizational climate variable that contribution of the team work from this influence is more than any other variables. Of the indicator of the organizational climate of climateQual, the contribution of the team work from this influence is more than any other variables that reinforcement of teamwork in academic libraries can be more effective in improving the organizational climate of this type libraries.

  15. Analisis Faktor – Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Jumlah Kejahatan Pencurian Kendaraan Bermotor (Curanmor) Menggunakan Model Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (Gwpr)

    OpenAIRE

    Haris, Muhammad; Yasin, Hasbi; Hoyyi, Abdul

    2015-01-01

    Theft is an act taking someone else's property, partially or entierely, with intention to have it illegally. Motor vehicle theft is one of the most highlighted crime type and disturbing the communities. Regression analysis is a statistical analysis for modeling the relationships between response variable and predictor variable. If the response variable follows a Poisson distribution or categorized as a count data, so the regression model used is Poisson regression. Geographically Weighted Poi...

  16. Multiple regression analysis of Jominy hardenability data for boron treated steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komenda, J.; Sandstroem, R.; Tukiainen, M.

    1997-01-01

    The relations between chemical composition and their hardenability of boron treated steels have been investigated using a multiple regression analysis method. A linear model of regression was chosen. The free boron content that is effective for the hardenability was calculated using a model proposed by Jansson. The regression analysis for 1261 steel heats provided equations that were statistically significant at the 95% level. All heats met the specification according to the nordic countries producers classification. The variation in chemical composition explained typically 80 to 90% of the variation in the hardenability. In the regression analysis elements which did not significantly contribute to the calculated hardness according to the F test were eliminated. Carbon, silicon, manganese, phosphorus and chromium were of importance at all Jominy distances, nickel, vanadium, boron and nitrogen at distances above 6 mm. After the regression analysis it was demonstrated that very few outliers were present in the data set, i.e. data points outside four times the standard deviation. The model has successfully been used in industrial practice replacing some of the necessary Jominy tests. (orig.)

  17. A Visual Analytics Approach for Correlation, Classification, and Regression Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steed, Chad A [ORNL; SwanII, J. Edward [Mississippi State University (MSU); Fitzpatrick, Patrick J. [Mississippi State University (MSU); Jankun-Kelly, T.J. [Mississippi State University (MSU)

    2012-02-01

    New approaches that combine the strengths of humans and machines are necessary to equip analysts with the proper tools for exploring today's increasing complex, multivariate data sets. In this paper, a novel visual data mining framework, called the Multidimensional Data eXplorer (MDX), is described that addresses the challenges of today's data by combining automated statistical analytics with a highly interactive parallel coordinates based canvas. In addition to several intuitive interaction capabilities, this framework offers a rich set of graphical statistical indicators, interactive regression analysis, visual correlation mining, automated axis arrangements and filtering, and data classification techniques. The current work provides a detailed description of the system as well as a discussion of key design aspects and critical feedback from domain experts.

  18. Inferring gene expression dynamics via functional regression analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leng Xiaoyan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Temporal gene expression profiles characterize the time-dynamics of expression of specific genes and are increasingly collected in current gene expression experiments. In the analysis of experiments where gene expression is obtained over the life cycle, it is of interest to relate temporal patterns of gene expression associated with different developmental stages to each other to study patterns of long-term developmental gene regulation. We use tools from functional data analysis to study dynamic changes by relating temporal gene expression profiles of different developmental stages to each other. Results We demonstrate that functional regression methodology can pinpoint relationships that exist between temporary gene expression profiles for different life cycle phases and incorporates dimension reduction as needed for these high-dimensional data. By applying these tools, gene expression profiles for pupa and adult phases are found to be strongly related to the profiles of the same genes obtained during the embryo phase. Moreover, one can distinguish between gene groups that exhibit relationships with positive and others with negative associations between later life and embryonal expression profiles. Specifically, we find a positive relationship in expression for muscle development related genes, and a negative relationship for strictly maternal genes for Drosophila, using temporal gene expression profiles. Conclusion Our findings point to specific reactivation patterns of gene expression during the Drosophila life cycle which differ in characteristic ways between various gene groups. Functional regression emerges as a useful tool for relating gene expression patterns from different developmental stages, and avoids the problems with large numbers of parameters and multiple testing that affect alternative approaches.

  19. Meta-Modeling by Symbolic Regression and Pareto Simulated Annealing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stinstra, E.; Rennen, G.; Teeuwen, G.J.A.

    2006-01-01

    The subject of this paper is a new approach to Symbolic Regression.Other publications on Symbolic Regression use Genetic Programming.This paper describes an alternative method based on Pareto Simulated Annealing.Our method is based on linear regression for the estimation of constants.Interval

  20. Electricity prices forecasting by automatic dynamic harmonic regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedregal, Diego J.; Trapero, Juan R.

    2007-01-01

    The changes experienced by electricity markets in recent years have created the necessity for more accurate forecast tools of electricity prices, both for producers and consumers. Many methodologies have been applied to this aim, but in the view of the authors, state space models are not yet fully exploited. The present paper proposes a univariate dynamic harmonic regression model set up in a state space framework for forecasting prices in these markets. The advantages of the approach are threefold. Firstly, a fast automatic identification and estimation procedure is proposed based on the frequency domain. Secondly, the recursive algorithms applied offer adaptive predictions that compare favourably with respect to other techniques. Finally, since the method is based on unobserved components models, explicit information about trend, seasonal and irregular behaviours of the series can be extracted. This information is of great value to the electricity companies' managers in order to improve their strategies, i.e. it provides management innovations. The good forecast performance and the rapid adaptability of the model to changes in the data are illustrated with actual prices taken from the PJM interconnection in the US and for the Spanish market for the year 2002. (author)

  1. Characteristics and Properties of a Simple Linear Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kowal Robert

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A simple linear regression model is one of the pillars of classic econometrics. Despite the passage of time, it continues to raise interest both from the theoretical side as well as from the application side. One of the many fundamental questions in the model concerns determining derivative characteristics and studying the properties existing in their scope, referring to the first of these aspects. The literature of the subject provides several classic solutions in that regard. In the paper, a completely new design is proposed, based on the direct application of variance and its properties, resulting from the non-correlation of certain estimators with the mean, within the scope of which some fundamental dependencies of the model characteristics are obtained in a much more compact manner. The apparatus allows for a simple and uniform demonstration of multiple dependencies and fundamental properties in the model, and it does it in an intuitive manner. The results were obtained in a classic, traditional area, where everything, as it might seem, has already been thoroughly studied and discovered.

  2. Bayesian Regression of Thermodynamic Models of Redox Active Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, Katherine [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Finding a suitable functional redox material is a critical challenge to achieving scalable, economically viable technologies for storing concentrated solar energy in the form of a defected oxide. Demonstrating e ectiveness for thermal storage or solar fuel is largely accomplished by using a thermodynamic model derived from experimental data. The purpose of this project is to test the accuracy of our regression model on representative data sets. Determining the accuracy of the model includes parameter tting the model to the data, comparing the model using di erent numbers of param- eters, and analyzing the entropy and enthalpy calculated from the model. Three data sets were considered in this project: two demonstrating materials for solar fuels by wa- ter splitting and the other of a material for thermal storage. Using Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), parameter estimation was preformed on the three data sets. Good results were achieved, except some there was some deviations on the edges of the data input ranges. The evidence values were then calculated in a variety of ways and used to compare models with di erent number of parameters. It was believed that at least one of the parameters was unnecessary and comparing evidence values demonstrated that the parameter was need on one data set and not signi cantly helpful on another. The entropy was calculated by taking the derivative in one variable and integrating over another. and its uncertainty was also calculated by evaluating the entropy over multiple MCMC samples. Afterwards, all the parts were written up as a tutorial for the Uncertainty Quanti cation Toolkit (UQTk).

  3. Support vector methods for survival analysis: a comparison between ranking and regression approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Belle, Vanya; Pelckmans, Kristiaan; Van Huffel, Sabine; Suykens, Johan A K

    2011-10-01

    To compare and evaluate ranking, regression and combined machine learning approaches for the analysis of survival data. The literature describes two approaches based on support vector machines to deal with censored observations. In the first approach the key idea is to rephrase the task as a ranking problem via the concordance index, a problem which can be solved efficiently in a context of structural risk minimization and convex optimization techniques. In a second approach, one uses a regression approach, dealing with censoring by means of inequality constraints. The goal of this paper is then twofold: (i) introducing a new model combining the ranking and regression strategy, which retains the link with existing survival models such as the proportional hazards model via transformation models; and (ii) comparison of the three techniques on 6 clinical and 3 high-dimensional datasets and discussing the relevance of these techniques over classical approaches fur survival data. We compare svm-based survival models based on ranking constraints, based on regression constraints and models based on both ranking and regression constraints. The performance of the models is compared by means of three different measures: (i) the concordance index, measuring the model's discriminating ability; (ii) the logrank test statistic, indicating whether patients with a prognostic index lower than the median prognostic index have a significant different survival than patients with a prognostic index higher than the median; and (iii) the hazard ratio after normalization to restrict the prognostic index between 0 and 1. Our results indicate a significantly better performance for models including regression constraints above models only based on ranking constraints. This work gives empirical evidence that svm-based models using regression constraints perform significantly better than svm-based models based on ranking constraints. Our experiments show a comparable performance for methods

  4. Convergence diagnostics for Eigenvalue problems with linear regression model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi, Bo; Petrovic, Bojan

    2011-01-01

    Although the Monte Carlo method has been extensively used for criticality/Eigenvalue problems, a reliable, robust, and efficient convergence diagnostics method is still desired. Most methods are based on integral parameters (multiplication factor, entropy) and either condense the local distribution information into a single value (e.g., entropy) or even disregard it. We propose to employ the detailed cycle-by-cycle local flux evolution obtained by using mesh tally mechanism to assess the source and flux convergence. By applying a linear regression model to each individual mesh in a mesh tally for convergence diagnostics, a global convergence criterion can be obtained. We exemplify this method on two problems and obtain promising diagnostics results. (author)

  5. The R Package threg to Implement Threshold Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Xiao

    2015-08-01

    This new package includes four functions: threg, and the methods hr, predict and plot for threg objects returned by threg. The threg function is the model-fitting function which is used to calculate regression coefficient estimates, asymptotic standard errors and p values. The hr method for threg objects is the hazard-ratio calculation function which provides the estimates of hazard ratios at selected time points for specified scenarios (based on given categories or value settings of covariates. The predict method for threg objects is used for prediction. And the plot method for threg objects provides plots for curves of estimated hazard functions, survival functions and probability density functions of the first-hitting-time; function curves corresponding to different scenarios can be overlaid in the same plot for comparison to give additional research insights.

  6. Predictive market segmentation model: An application of logistic regression model and CHAID procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soldić-Aleksić Jasna

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Market segmentation presents one of the key concepts of the modern marketing. The main goal of market segmentation is focused on creating groups (segments of customers that have similar characteristics, needs, wishes and/or similar behavior regarding the purchase of concrete product/service. Companies can create specific marketing plan for each of these segments and therefore gain short or long term competitive advantage on the market. Depending on the concrete marketing goal, different segmentation schemes and techniques may be applied. This paper presents a predictive market segmentation model based on the application of logistic regression model and CHAID analysis. The logistic regression model was used for the purpose of variables selection (from the initial pool of eleven variables which are statistically significant for explaining the dependent variable. Selected variables were afterwards included in the CHAID procedure that generated the predictive market segmentation model. The model results are presented on the concrete empirical example in the following form: summary model results, CHAID tree, Gain chart, Index chart, risk and classification tables.

  7. Evaluation of syngas production unit cost of bio-gasification facility using regression analysis techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, Yangyang; Parajuli, Prem B.

    2011-08-10

    Evaluation of economic feasibility of a bio-gasification facility needs understanding of its unit cost under different production capacities. The objective of this study was to evaluate the unit cost of syngas production at capacities from 60 through 1800Nm 3/h using an economic model with three regression analysis techniques (simple regression, reciprocal regression, and log-log regression). The preliminary result of this study showed that reciprocal regression analysis technique had the best fit curve between per unit cost and production capacity, with sum of error squares (SES) lower than 0.001 and coefficient of determination of (R 2) 0.996. The regression analysis techniques determined the minimum unit cost of syngas production for micro-scale bio-gasification facilities of $0.052/Nm 3, under the capacity of 2,880 Nm 3/h. The results of this study suggest that to reduce cost, facilities should run at a high production capacity. In addition, the contribution of this technique could be the new categorical criterion to evaluate micro-scale bio-gasification facility from the perspective of economic analysis.

  8. Multiple linear regression and regression with time series error models in forecasting PM10 concentrations in Peninsular Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Kar Yong; Awang, Norhashidah

    2018-01-06

    Frequent haze occurrences in Malaysia have made the management of PM 10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic less than 10 μm) pollution a critical task. This requires knowledge on factors associating with PM 10 variation and good forecast of PM 10 concentrations. Hence, this paper demonstrates the prediction of 1-day-ahead daily average PM 10 concentrations based on predictor variables including meteorological parameters and gaseous pollutants. Three different models were built. They were multiple linear regression (MLR) model with lagged predictor variables (MLR1), MLR model with lagged predictor variables and PM 10 concentrations (MLR2) and regression with time series error (RTSE) model. The findings revealed that humidity, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, carbon monoxide and ozone were the main factors explaining the PM 10 variation in Peninsular Malaysia. Comparison among the three models showed that MLR2 model was on a same level with RTSE model in terms of forecasting accuracy, while MLR1 model was the worst.

  9. Modeling Pan Evaporation for Kuwait by Multiple Linear Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almedeij, Jaber

    2012-01-01

    Evaporation is an important parameter for many projects related to hydrology and water resources systems. This paper constitutes the first study conducted in Kuwait to obtain empirical relations for the estimation of daily and monthly pan evaporation as functions of available meteorological data of temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The data used here for the modeling are daily measurements of substantial continuity coverage, within a period of 17 years between January 1993 and December 2009, which can be considered representative of the desert climate of the urban zone of the country. Multiple linear regression technique is used with a procedure of variable selection for fitting the best model forms. The correlations of evaporation with temperature and relative humidity are also transformed in order to linearize the existing curvilinear patterns of the data by using power and exponential functions, respectively. The evaporation models suggested with the best variable combinations were shown to produce results that are in a reasonable agreement with observation values. PMID:23226984

  10. truncSP: An R Package for Estimation of Semi-Parametric Truncated Linear Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Karlsson

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Problems with truncated data occur in many areas, complicating estimation and inference. Regarding linear regression models, the ordinary least squares estimator is inconsistent and biased for these types of data and is therefore unsuitable for use. Alternative estimators, designed for the estimation of truncated regression models, have been developed. This paper presents the R package truncSP. The package contains functions for the estimation of semi-parametric truncated linear regression models using three different estimators: the symmetrically trimmed least squares, quadratic mode, and left truncated estimators, all of which have been shown to have good asymptotic and ?nite sample properties. The package also provides functions for the analysis of the estimated models. Data from the environmental sciences are used to illustrate the functions in the package.

  11. Prediction of hearing outcomes by multiple regression analysis in patients with idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Hideaki; Tabata, Takahisa; Koizumi, Hiroki; Hohchi, Nobusuke; Takeuchi, Shoko; Kitamura, Takuro; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Ohbuchi, Toyoaki

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to create a multiple regression model for predicting hearing outcomes of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSNHL). The participants were 205 consecutive patients (205 ears) with ISSNHL (hearing level ≥ 40 dB, interval between onset and treatment ≤ 30 days). They received systemic steroid administration combined with intratympanic steroid injection. Data were examined by simple and multiple regression analyses. Three hearing indices (percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and posttreatment hearing level [HLpost]) and 7 prognostic factors (age, days from onset to treatment, initial hearing level, initial hearing level at low frequencies, initial hearing level at high frequencies, presence of vertigo, and contralateral hearing level) were included in the multiple regression analysis as dependent and explanatory variables, respectively. In the simple regression analysis, the percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and HLpost showed significant correlation with 2, 5, and 6 of the 7 prognostic factors, respectively. The multiple correlation coefficients were 0.396, 0.503, and 0.714 for the percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and HLpost, respectively. Predicted values of HLpost calculated by the multiple regression equation were reliable with 70% probability with a 40-dB-width prediction interval. Prediction of HLpost by the multiple regression model may be useful to estimate the hearing prognosis of ISSNHL. © The Author(s) 2014.

  12. A simple linear regression method for quantitative trait loci linkage analysis with censored observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Carl A; McRae, Allan F; Visscher, Peter M

    2006-07-01

    Standard quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping techniques commonly assume that the trait is both fully observed and normally distributed. When considering survival or age-at-onset traits these assumptions are often incorrect. Methods have been developed to map QTL for survival traits; however, they are both computationally intensive and not available in standard genome analysis software packages. We propose a grouped linear regression method for the analysis of continuous survival data. Using simulation we compare this method to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models and a standard linear regression method that ignores censoring. The grouped linear regression method is of equivalent power to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards methods and is significantly better than the standard linear regression method when censored observations are present. The method is also robust to the proportion of censored individuals and the underlying distribution of the trait. On the basis of linear regression methodology, the grouped linear regression model is computationally simple and fast and can be implemented readily in freely available statistical software.

  13. Modelling of binary logistic regression for obesity among secondary students in a rural area of Kedah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruddin, Ainur Amira; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd.; Baharum, Adam; Ahmad, Wan Muhamad Amir W.

    2014-07-01

    Logistic regression analysis examines the influence of various factors on a dichotomous outcome by estimating the probability of the event's occurrence. Logistic regression, also called a logit model, is a statistical procedure used to model dichotomous outcomes. In the logit model the log odds of the dichotomous outcome is modeled as a linear combination of the predictor variables. The log odds ratio in logistic regression provides a description of the probabilistic relationship of the variables and the outcome. In conducting logistic regression, selection procedures are used in selecting important predictor variables, diagnostics are used to check that assumptions are valid which include independence of errors, linearity in the logit for continuous variables, absence of multicollinearity, and lack of strongly influential outliers and a test statistic is calculated to determine the aptness of the model. This study used the binary logistic regression model to investigate overweight and obesity among rural secondary school students on the basis of their demographics profile, medical history, diet and lifestyle. The results indicate that overweight and obesity of students are influenced by obesity in family and the interaction between a student's ethnicity and routine meals intake. The odds of a student being overweight and obese are higher for a student having a family history of obesity and for a non-Malay student who frequently takes routine meals as compared to a Malay student.

  14. Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis of Cigarette Use among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adwere-Boamah, Joseph

    2011-01-01

    A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to predict high school students' cigarette smoking behavior from selected predictors from 2009 CDC Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey. The specific target student behavior of interest was frequent cigarette use. Five predictor variables included in the model were: a) race, b) frequency of…

  15. Bayesian linear regression : different conjugate models and their (in)sensitivity to prior-data conflict

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walter, G.M.; Augustin, Th.; Kneib, Thomas; Tutz, Gerhard

    2010-01-01

    The paper is concerned with Bayesian analysis under prior-data conflict, i.e. the situation when observed data are rather unexpected under the prior (and the sample size is not large enough to eliminate the influence of the prior). Two approaches for Bayesian linear regression modeling based on

  16. The use of cognitive ability measures as explanatory variables in regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junker, Brian; Schofield, Lynne Steuerle; Taylor, Lowell J

    2012-12-01

    Cognitive ability measures are often taken as explanatory variables in regression analysis, e.g., as a factor affecting a market outcome such as an individual's wage, or a decision such as an individual's education acquisition. Cognitive ability is a latent construct; its true value is unobserved. Nonetheless, researchers often assume that a test score , constructed via standard psychometric practice from individuals' responses to test items, can be safely used in regression analysis. We examine problems that can arise, and suggest that an alternative approach, a "mixed effects structural equations" (MESE) model, may be more appropriate in many circumstances.

  17. Analysis of designed experiments by stabilised PLS Regression and jack-knifing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martens, Harald; Høy, M.; Westad, F.

    2001-01-01

    Pragmatical, visually oriented methods for assessing and optimising bi-linear regression models are described, and applied to PLS Regression (PLSR) analysis of multi-response data from controlled experiments. The paper outlines some ways to stabilise the PLSR method to extend its range...... the reliability of the linear and bi-linear model parameter estimates. The paper illustrates how the obtained PLSR "significance" probabilities are similar to those from conventional factorial ANOVA, but the PLSR is shown to give important additional overview plots of the main relevant structures in the multi....... An Introduction, Wiley, Chichester, UK, 2001]....

  18. A brief introduction to regression designs and mixed-effects modelling by a recent convert

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balling, Laura Winther

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses the advantages of multiple regression designs over the factorial designs traditionally used in many psycholinguistic experiments. It is shown that regression designs are typically more informative, statistically more powerful and better suited to the analysis of naturalistic...... tasks. The advantages of including both fixed and random effects are demonstrated with reference to linear mixed-effects models, and problems of collinearity, variable distribution and variable selection are discussed. The advantages of these techniques are exemplified in an analysis of a word...

  19. An Ordered Regression Model to Predict Transit Passengers’ Behavioural Intentions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oña, J. de; Oña, R. de; Eboli, L.; Forciniti, C.; Mazzulla, G.

    2016-07-01

    Passengers’ behavioural intentions after experiencing transit services can be viewed as signals that show if a customer continues to utilise a company’s service. Users’ behavioural intentions can depend on a series of aspects that are difficult to measure directly. More recently, transit passengers’ behavioural intentions have been just considered together with the concepts of service quality and customer satisfaction. Due to the characteristics of the ways for evaluating passengers’ behavioural intentions, service quality and customer satisfaction, we retain that this kind of issue could be analysed also by applying ordered regression models. This work aims to propose just an ordered probit model for analysing service quality factors that can influence passengers’ behavioural intentions towards the use of transit services. The case study is the LRT of Seville (Spain), where a survey was conducted in order to collect the opinions of the passengers about the existing transit service, and to have a measure of the aspects that can influence the intentions of the users to continue using the transit service in the future. (Author)

  20. Heterogeneous Breast Phantom Development for Microwave Imaging Using Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camerin Hahn

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available As new algorithms for microwave imaging emerge, it is important to have standard accurate benchmarking tests. Currently, most researchers use homogeneous phantoms for testing new algorithms. These simple structures lack the heterogeneity of the dielectric properties of human tissue and are inadequate for testing these algorithms for medical imaging. To adequately test breast microwave imaging algorithms, the phantom has to resemble different breast tissues physically and in terms of dielectric properties. We propose a systematic approach in designing phantoms that not only have dielectric properties close to breast tissues but also can be easily shaped to realistic physical models. The approach is based on regression model to match phantom's dielectric properties with the breast tissue dielectric properties found in Lazebnik et al. (2007. However, the methodology proposed here can be used to create phantoms for any tissue type as long as ex vivo, in vitro, or in vivo tissue dielectric properties are measured and available. Therefore, using this method, accurate benchmarking phantoms for testing emerging microwave imaging algorithms can be developed.

  1. Linear regression analysis: part 14 of a series on evaluation of scientific publications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Astrid; Hommel, Gerhard; Blettner, Maria

    2010-11-01

    Regression analysis is an important statistical method for the analysis of medical data. It enables the identification and characterization of relationships among multiple factors. It also enables the identification of prognostically relevant risk factors and the calculation of risk scores for individual prognostication. This article is based on selected textbooks of statistics, a selective review of the literature, and our own experience. After a brief introduction of the uni- and multivariable regression models, illustrative examples are given to explain what the important considerations are before a regression analysis is performed, and how the results should be interpreted. The reader should then be able to judge whether the method has been used correctly and interpret the results appropriately. The performance and interpretation of linear regression analysis are subject to a variety of pitfalls, which are discussed here in detail. The reader is made aware of common errors of interpretation through practical examples. Both the opportunities for applying linear regression analysis and its limitations are presented.

  2. Cox's regression model for dynamics of grouped unemployment data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Volf, Petr

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 19 (2003), s. 151-162 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/01/0539 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : mathematical statistics * survival analysis * Cox's model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  3. Inflation, Forecast Intervals and Long Memory Regression Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.S. Bos (Charles); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M. Ooms (Marius)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractWe examine recursive out-of-sample forecasting of monthly postwar U.S. core inflation and log price levels. We use the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model with explanatory variables (ARFIMAX). Our analysis suggests a significant explanatory power of leading

  4. Inflation, Forecast Intervals and Long Memory Regression Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooms, M.; Bos, C.S.; Franses, P.H.

    2003-01-01

    We examine recursive out-of-sample forecasting of monthly postwar US core inflation and log price levels. We use the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model with explanatory variables (ARFIMAX). Our analysis suggests a significant explanatory power of leading indicators

  5. Goodness-of-fit tests and model diagnostics for negative binomial regression of RNA sequencing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Gu; Di, Yanming; Schafer, Daniel W

    2015-01-01

    This work is about assessing model adequacy for negative binomial (NB) regression, particularly (1) assessing the adequacy of the NB assumption, and (2) assessing the appropriateness of models for NB dispersion parameters. Tools for the first are appropriate for NB regression generally; those for the second are primarily intended for RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data analysis. The typically small number of biological samples and large number of genes in RNA-Seq analysis motivate us to address the trade-offs between robustness and statistical power using NB regression models. One widely-used power-saving strategy, for example, is to assume some commonalities of NB dispersion parameters across genes via simple models relating them to mean expression rates, and many such models have been proposed. As RNA-Seq analysis is becoming ever more popular, it is appropriate to make more thorough investigations into power and robustness of the resulting methods, and into practical tools for model assessment. In this article, we propose simulation-based statistical tests and diagnostic graphics to address model adequacy. We provide simulated and real data examples to illustrate that our proposed methods are effective for detecting the misspecification of the NB mean-variance relationship as well as judging the adequacy of fit of several NB dispersion models.

  6. CUSUM-Logistic Regression analysis for the rapid detection of errors in clinical laboratory test results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Maureen L; Gounden, Verena; van Deventer, Hendrik E; Remaley, Alan T

    2016-02-01

    The main drawback of the periodic analysis of quality control (QC) material is that test performance is not monitored in time periods between QC analyses, potentially leading to the reporting of faulty test results. The objective of this study was to develop a patient based QC procedure for the more timely detection of test errors. Results from a Chem-14 panel measured on the Beckman LX20 analyzer were used to develop the model. Each test result was predicted from the other 13 members of the panel by multiple regression, which resulted in correlation coefficients between the predicted and measured result of >0.7 for 8 of the 14 tests. A logistic regression model, which utilized the measured test result, the predicted test result, the day of the week and time of day, was then developed for predicting test errors. The output of the logistic regression was tallied by a daily CUSUM approach and used to predict test errors, with a fixed specificity of 90%. The mean average run length (ARL) before error detection by CUSUM-Logistic Regression (CSLR) was 20 with a mean sensitivity of 97%, which was considerably shorter than the mean ARL of 53 (sensitivity 87.5%) for a simple prediction model that only used the measured result for error detection. A CUSUM-Logistic Regression analysis of patient laboratory data can be an effective approach for the rapid and sensitive detection of clinical laboratory errors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. Regression and kriging analysis for grid power factor estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh Guntaka

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The measurement of power factor (PF in electrical utility grids is a mainstay of load balancing and is also a critical element of transmission and distribution efficiency. The measurement of PF dates back to the earliest periods of electrical power distribution to public grids. In the wide-area distribution grid, measurement of current waveforms is trivial and may be accomplished at any point in the grid using a current tap transformer. However, voltage measurement requires reference to ground and so is more problematic and measurements are normally constrained to points that have ready and easy access to a ground source. We present two mathematical analysis methods based on kriging and linear least square estimation (LLSE (regression to derive PF at nodes with unknown voltages that are within a perimeter of sample nodes with ground reference across a selected power grid. Our results indicate an error average of 1.884% that is within acceptable tolerances for PF measurements that are used in load balancing tasks.

  8. Regression Analysis and Calibration Recommendations for the Characterization of Balance Temperature Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, N.; Volden, T.

    2018-01-01

    Analysis and use of temperature-dependent wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data are discussed in the paper. First, three different methods are presented and compared that may be used to process temperature-dependent strain-gage balance data. The first method uses an extended set of independent variables in order to process the data and predict balance loads. The second method applies an extended load iteration equation during the analysis of balance calibration data. The third method uses temperature-dependent sensitivities for the data analysis. Physical interpretations of the most important temperature-dependent regression model terms are provided that relate temperature compensation imperfections and the temperature-dependent nature of the gage factor to sets of regression model terms. Finally, balance calibration recommendations are listed so that temperature-dependent calibration data can be obtained and successfully processed using the reviewed analysis methods.

  9. Statistical 21-cm Signal Separation via Gaussian Process Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, F. G.; Ghosh, A.; Koopmans, L. V. E.

    2018-05-01

    Detecting and characterizing the Epoch of Reionization and Cosmic Dawn via the redshifted 21-cm hyperfine line of neutral hydrogen will revolutionize the study of the formation of the first stars, galaxies, black holes and intergalactic gas in the infant Universe. The wealth of information encoded in this signal is, however, buried under foregrounds that are many orders of magnitude brighter. These must be removed accurately and precisely in order to reveal the feeble 21-cm signal. This requires not only the modeling of the Galactic and extra-galactic emission, but also of the often stochastic residuals due to imperfect calibration of the data caused by ionospheric and instrumental distortions. To stochastically model these effects, we introduce a new method based on `Gaussian Process Regression' (GPR) which is able to statistically separate the 21-cm signal from most of the foregrounds and other contaminants. Using simulated LOFAR-EoR data that include strong instrumental mode-mixing, we show that this method is capable of recovering the 21-cm signal power spectrum across the entire range k = 0.07 - 0.3 {h cMpc^{-1}}. The GPR method is most optimal, having minimal and controllable impact on the 21-cm signal, when the foregrounds are correlated on frequency scales ≳ 3 MHz and the rms of the signal has σ21cm ≳ 0.1 σnoise. This signal separation improves the 21-cm power-spectrum sensitivity by a factor ≳ 3 compared to foreground avoidance strategies and enables the sensitivity of current and future 21-cm instruments such as the Square Kilometre Array to be fully exploited.

  10. Deep ensemble learning of sparse regression models for brain disease diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suk, Heung-Il; Lee, Seong-Whan; Shen, Dinggang

    2017-04-01

    Recent studies on brain imaging analysis witnessed the core roles of machine learning techniques in computer-assisted intervention for brain disease diagnosis. Of various machine-learning techniques, sparse regression models have proved their effectiveness in handling high-dimensional data but with a small number of training samples, especially in medical problems. In the meantime, deep learning methods have been making great successes by outperforming the state-of-the-art performances in various applications. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that combines the two conceptually different methods of sparse regression and deep learning for Alzheimer's disease/mild cognitive impairment diagnosis and prognosis. Specifically, we first train multiple sparse regression models, each of which is trained with different values of a regularization control parameter. Thus, our multiple sparse regression models potentially select different feature subsets from the original feature set; thereby they have different powers to predict the response values, i.e., clinical label and clinical scores in our work. By regarding the response values from our sparse regression models as target-level representations, we then build a deep convolutional neural network for clinical decision making, which thus we call 'Deep Ensemble Sparse Regression Network.' To our best knowledge, this is the first work that combines sparse regression models with deep neural network. In our experiments with the ADNI cohort, we validated the effectiveness of the proposed method by achieving the highest diagnostic accuracies in three classification tasks. We also rigorously analyzed our results and compared with the previous studies on the ADNI cohort in the literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Longitudinal beta regression models for analyzing health-related quality of life scores over time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hunger Matthias

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health-related quality of life (HRQL has become an increasingly important outcome parameter in clinical trials and epidemiological research. HRQL scores are typically bounded at both ends of the scale and often highly skewed. Several regression techniques have been proposed to model such data in cross-sectional studies, however, methods applicable in longitudinal research are less well researched. This study examined the use of beta regression models for analyzing longitudinal HRQL data using two empirical examples with distributional features typically encountered in practice. Methods We used SF-6D utility data from a German older age cohort study and stroke-specific HRQL data from a randomized controlled trial. We described the conceptual differences between mixed and marginal beta regression models and compared both models to the commonly used linear mixed model in terms of overall fit and predictive accuracy. Results At any measurement time, the beta distribution fitted the SF-6D utility data and stroke-specific HRQL data better than the normal distribution. The mixed beta model showed better likelihood-based fit statistics than the linear mixed model and respected the boundedness of the outcome variable. However, it tended to underestimate the true mean at the upper part of the distribution. Adjusted group means from marginal beta model and linear mixed model were nearly identical but differences could be observed with respect to standard errors. Conclusions Understanding the conceptual differences between mixed and marginal beta regression models is important for their proper use in the analysis of longitudinal HRQL data. Beta regression fits the typical distribution of HRQL data better than linear mixed models, however, if focus is on estimating group mean scores rather than making individual predictions, the two methods might not differ substantially.

  12. Multiple regression models for energy use in air-conditioned office buildings in different climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Liu Dalong; Tsang, C.L.

    2010-01-01

    An attempt was made to develop multiple regression models for office buildings in the five major climates in China - severe cold, cold, hot summer and cold winter, mild, and hot summer and warm winter. A total of 12 key building design variables were identified through parametric and sensitivity analysis, and considered as inputs in the regression models. The coefficient of determination R 2 varies from 0.89 in Harbin to 0.97 in Kunming, indicating that 89-97% of the variations in annual building energy use can be explained by the changes in the 12 parameters. A pseudo-random number generator based on three simple multiplicative congruential generators was employed to generate random designs for evaluation of the regression models. The difference between regression-predicted and DOE-simulated annual building energy use are largely within 10%. It is envisaged that the regression models developed can be used to estimate the likely energy savings/penalty during the initial design stage when different building schemes and design concepts are being considered.

  13. Regression Analysis for Multivariate Dependent Count Data Using Convolved Gaussian Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Sofro, A'yunin; Shi, Jian Qing; Cao, Chunzheng

    2017-01-01

    Research on Poisson regression analysis for dependent data has been developed rapidly in the last decade. One of difficult problems in a multivariate case is how to construct a cross-correlation structure and at the meantime make sure that the covariance matrix is positive definite. To address the issue, we propose to use convolved Gaussian process (CGP) in this paper. The approach provides a semi-parametric model and offers a natural framework for modeling common mean structure and covarianc...

  14. Application of nonlinear regression analysis for ammonium exchange by natural (Bigadic) clinoptilolite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunay, Ahmet

    2007-01-01

    The experimental data of ammonium exchange by natural Bigadic clinoptilolite was evaluated using nonlinear regression analysis. Three two-parameters isotherm models (Langmuir, Freundlich and Temkin) and three three-parameters isotherm models (Redlich-Peterson, Sips and Khan) were used to analyse the equilibrium data. Fitting of isotherm models was determined using values of standard normalization error procedure (SNE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ). HYBRID error function provided lowest sum of normalized error and Khan model had better performance for modeling the equilibrium data. Thermodynamic investigation indicated that ammonium removal by clinoptilolite was favorable at lower temperatures and exothermic in nature

  15. Quantile regression for the statistical analysis of immunological data with many non-detects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eilers, Paul H C; Röder, Esther; Savelkoul, Huub F J; van Wijk, Roy Gerth

    2012-07-07

    Immunological parameters are hard to measure. A well-known problem is the occurrence of values below the detection limit, the non-detects. Non-detects are a nuisance, because classical statistical analyses, like ANOVA and regression, cannot be applied. The more advanced statistical techniques currently available for the analysis of datasets with non-detects can only be used if a small percentage of the data are non-detects. Quantile regression, a generalization of percentiles to regression models, models the median or higher percentiles and tolerates very high numbers of non-detects. We present a non-technical introduction and illustrate it with an implementation to real data from a clinical trial. We show that by using quantile regression, groups can be compared and that meaningful linear trends can be computed, even if more than half of the data consists of non-detects. Quantile regression is a valuable addition to the statistical methods that can be used for the analysis of immunological datasets with non-detects.

  16. Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

    2017-04-08

    An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale.

  17. Tutorial on Biostatistics: Linear Regression Analysis of Continuous Correlated Eye Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, Gui-Shuang; Maguire, Maureen G; Glynn, Robert; Rosner, Bernard

    2017-04-01

    To describe and demonstrate appropriate linear regression methods for analyzing correlated continuous eye data. We describe several approaches to regression analysis involving both eyes, including mixed effects and marginal models under various covariance structures to account for inter-eye correlation. We demonstrate, with SAS statistical software, applications in a study comparing baseline refractive error between one eye with choroidal neovascularization (CNV) and the unaffected fellow eye, and in a study determining factors associated with visual field in the elderly. When refractive error from both eyes were analyzed with standard linear regression without accounting for inter-eye correlation (adjusting for demographic and ocular covariates), the difference between eyes with CNV and fellow eyes was 0.15 diopters (D; 95% confidence interval, CI -0.03 to 0.32D, p = 0.10). Using a mixed effects model or a marginal model, the estimated difference was the same but with narrower 95% CI (0.01 to 0.28D, p = 0.03). Standard regression for visual field data from both eyes provided biased estimates of standard error (generally underestimated) and smaller p-values, while analysis of the worse eye provided larger p-values than mixed effects models and marginal models. In research involving both eyes, ignoring inter-eye correlation can lead to invalid inferences. Analysis using only right or left eyes is valid, but decreases power. Worse-eye analysis can provide less power and biased estimates of effect. Mixed effects or marginal models using the eye as the unit of analysis should be used to appropriately account for inter-eye correlation and maximize power and precision.

  18. Multiple Imputation of a Randomly Censored Covariate Improves Logistic Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atem, Folefac D; Qian, Jing; Maye, Jacqueline E; Johnson, Keith A; Betensky, Rebecca A

    2016-01-01

    Randomly censored covariates arise frequently in epidemiologic studies. The most commonly used methods, including complete case and single imputation or substitution, suffer from inefficiency and bias. They make strong parametric assumptions or they consider limit of detection censoring only. We employ multiple imputation, in conjunction with semi-parametric modeling of the censored covariate, to overcome these shortcomings and to facilitate robust estimation. We develop a multiple imputation approach for randomly censored covariates within the framework of a logistic regression model. We use the non-parametric estimate of the covariate distribution or the semiparametric Cox model estimate in the presence of additional covariates in the model. We evaluate this procedure in simulations, and compare its operating characteristics to those from the complete case analysis and a survival regression approach. We apply the procedures to an Alzheimer's study of the association between amyloid positivity and maternal age of onset of dementia. Multiple imputation achieves lower standard errors and higher power than the complete case approach under heavy and moderate censoring and is comparable under light censoring. The survival regression approach achieves the highest power among all procedures, but does not produce interpretable estimates of association. Multiple imputation offers a favorable alternative to complete case analysis and ad hoc substitution methods in the presence of randomly censored covariates within the framework of logistic regression.

  19. Poisson regression approach for modeling fatal injury rates amongst Malaysian workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamarulzaman Ibrahim; Heng Khai Theng

    2005-01-01

    Many safety studies are based on the analysis carried out on injury surveillance data. The injury surveillance data gathered for the analysis include information on number of employees at risk of injury in each of several strata where the strata are defined in terms of a series of important predictor variables. Further insight into the relationship between fatal injury rates and predictor variables may be obtained by the poisson regression approach. Poisson regression is widely used in analyzing count data. In this study, poisson regression is used to model the relationship between fatal injury rates and predictor variables which are year (1995-2002), gender, recording system and industry type. Data for the analysis were obtained from PERKESO and Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia. It is found that the assumption that the data follow poisson distribution has been violated. After correction for the problem of over dispersion, the predictor variables that are found to be significant in the model are gender, system of recording, industry type, two interaction effects (interaction between recording system and industry type and between year and industry type). Introduction Regression analysis is one of the most popular

  20. Mediation analysis for logistic regression with interactions: Application of a surrogate marker in ophthalmology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Signe Marie; Hauger, Hanne; Ritz, Christian

    2018-01-01

    Mediation analysis is often based on fitting two models, one including and another excluding a potential mediator, and subsequently quantify the mediated effects by combining parameter estimates from these two models. Standard errors of such derived parameters may be approximated using the delta...... method. For a study evaluating a treatment effect on visual acuity, a binary outcome, we demonstrate how mediation analysis may conveniently be carried out by means of marginally fitted logistic regression models in combination with the delta method. Several metrics of mediation are estimated and results...

  1. Linear and evolutionary polynomial regression models to forecast coastal dynamics: Comparison and reliability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, Delia Evelina; Barca, Emanuele; Goncalves, Rodrigo Mikosz; de Araujo Queiroz, Heithor Alexandre; Berardi, Luigi; Passarella, Giuseppe

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, the Evolutionary Polynomial Regression data modelling strategy has been applied to study small scale, short-term coastal morphodynamics, given its capability for treating a wide database of known information, non-linearly. Simple linear and multilinear regression models were also applied to achieve a balance between the computational load and reliability of estimations of the three models. In fact, even though it is easy to imagine that the more complex the model, the more the prediction improves, sometimes a "slight" worsening of estimations can be accepted in exchange for the time saved in data organization and computational load. The models' outcomes were validated through a detailed statistical, error analysis, which revealed a slightly better estimation of the polynomial model with respect to the multilinear model, as expected. On the other hand, even though the data organization was identical for the two models, the multilinear one required a simpler simulation setting and a faster run time. Finally, the most reliable evolutionary polynomial regression model was used in order to make some conjecture about the uncertainty increase with the extension of extrapolation time of the estimation. The overlapping rate between the confidence band of the mean of the known coast position and the prediction band of the estimated position can be a good index of the weakness in producing reliable estimations when the extrapolation time increases too much. The proposed models and tests have been applied to a coastal sector located nearby Torre Colimena in the Apulia region, south Italy.

  2. Statistical methods in regression and calibration analysis of chromosome aberration data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkle, W.

    1983-01-01

    The method of iteratively reweighted least squares for the regression analysis of Poisson distributed chromosome aberration data is reviewed in the context of other fit procedures used in the cytogenetic literature. As an application of the resulting regression curves methods for calculating confidence intervals on dose from aberration yield are described and compared, and, for the linear quadratic model a confidence interval is given. Emphasis is placed on the rational interpretation and the limitations of various methods from a statistical point of view. (orig./MG)

  3. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using prognostic tools and regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghinea, Cristina; Drăgoi, Elena Niculina; Comăniţă, Elena-Diana; Gavrilescu, Marius; Câmpean, Teofil; Curteanu, Silvia; Gavrilescu, Maria

    2016-11-01

    For an adequate planning of waste management systems the accurate forecast of waste generation is an essential step, since various factors can affect waste trends. The application of predictive and prognosis models are useful tools, as reliable support for decision making processes. In this paper some indicators such as: number of residents, population age, urban life expectancy, total municipal solid waste were used as input variables in prognostic models in order to predict the amount of solid waste fractions. We applied Waste Prognostic Tool, regression analysis and time series analysis to forecast municipal solid waste generation and composition by considering the Iasi Romania case study. Regression equations were determined for six solid waste fractions (paper, plastic, metal, glass, biodegradable and other waste). Accuracy Measures were calculated and the results showed that S-curve trend model is the most suitable for municipal solid waste (MSW) prediction. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A generalized additive regression model for survival times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2001-01-01

    Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

  5. A method for fitting regression splines with varying polynomial order in the linear mixed model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Lloyd J; Stewart, Paul W; MacDougall, James E; Helms, Ronald W

    2006-02-15

    The linear mixed model has become a widely used tool for longitudinal analysis of continuous variables. The use of regression splines in these models offers the analyst additional flexibility in the formulation of descriptive analyses, exploratory analyses and hypothesis-driven confirmatory analyses. We propose a method for fitting piecewise polynomial regression splines with varying polynomial order in the fixed effects and/or random effects of the linear mixed model. The polynomial segments are explicitly constrained by side conditions for continuity and some smoothness at the points where they join. By using a reparameterization of this explicitly constrained linear mixed model, an implicitly constrained linear mixed model is constructed that simplifies implementation of fixed-knot regression splines. The proposed approach is relatively simple, handles splines in one variable or multiple variables, and can be easily programmed using existing commercial software such as SAS or S-plus. The method is illustrated using two examples: an analysis of longitudinal viral load data from a study of subjects with acute HIV-1 infection and an analysis of 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure profiles.

  6. Multiple regression for physiological data analysis: the problem of multicollinearity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slinker, B K; Glantz, S A

    1985-07-01

    Multiple linear regression, in which several predictor variables are related to a response variable, is a powerful statistical tool for gaining quantitative insight into complex in vivo physiological systems. For these insights to be correct, all predictor variables must be uncorrelated. However, in many physiological experiments the predictor variables cannot be precisely controlled and thus change in parallel (i.e., they are highly correlated). There is a redundancy of information about the response, a situation called multicollinearity, that leads to numerical problems in estimating the parameters in regression equations; the parameters are often of incorrect magnitude or sign or have large standard errors. Although multicollinearity can be avoided with good experimental design, not all interesting physiological questions can be studied without encountering multicollinearity. In these cases various ad hoc procedures have been proposed to mitigate multicollinearity. Although many of these procedures are controversial, they can be helpful in applying multiple linear regression to some physiological problems.

  7. Harmonic regression of Landsat time series for modeling attributes from national forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Barry T.; Knight, Joseph F.; McRoberts, Ronald E.

    2018-03-01

    Imagery from the Landsat Program has been used frequently as a source of auxiliary data for modeling land cover, as well as a variety of attributes associated with tree cover. With ready access to all scenes in the archive since 2008 due to the USGS Landsat Data Policy, new approaches to deriving such auxiliary data from dense Landsat time series are required. Several methods have previously been developed for use with finer temporal resolution imagery (e.g. AVHRR and MODIS), including image compositing and harmonic regression using Fourier series. The manuscript presents a study, using Minnesota, USA during the years 2009-2013 as the study area and timeframe. The study examined the relative predictive power of land cover models, in particular those related to tree cover, using predictor variables based solely on composite imagery versus those using estimated harmonic regression coefficients. The study used two common non-parametric modeling approaches (i.e. k-nearest neighbors and random forests) for fitting classification and regression models of multiple attributes measured on USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis plots using all available Landsat imagery for the study area and timeframe. The estimated Fourier coefficients developed by harmonic regression of tasseled cap transformation time series data were shown to be correlated with land cover, including tree cover. Regression models using estimated Fourier coefficients as predictor variables showed a two- to threefold increase in explained variance for a small set of continuous response variables, relative to comparable models using monthly image composites. Similarly, the overall accuracies of classification models using the estimated Fourier coefficients were approximately 10-20 percentage points higher than the models using the image composites, with corresponding individual class accuracies between six and 45 percentage points higher.

  8. Composite marginal quantile regression analysis for longitudinal adolescent body mass index data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chi-Chuan; Chen, Yi-Hau; Chang, Hsing-Yi

    2017-09-20

    Childhood and adolescenthood overweight or obesity, which may be quantified through the body mass index (BMI), is strongly associated with adult obesity and other health problems. Motivated by the child and adolescent behaviors in long-term evolution (CABLE) study, we are interested in individual, family, and school factors associated with marginal quantiles of longitudinal adolescent BMI values. We propose a new method for composite marginal quantile regression analysis for longitudinal outcome data, which performs marginal quantile regressions at multiple quantile levels simultaneously. The proposed method extends the quantile regression coefficient modeling method introduced by Frumento and Bottai (Biometrics 2016; 72:74-84) to longitudinal data accounting suitably for the correlation structure in longitudinal observations. A goodness-of-fit test for the proposed modeling is also developed. Simulation results show that the proposed method can be much more efficient than the analysis without taking correlation into account and the analysis performing separate quantile regressions at different quantile levels. The application to the longitudinal adolescent BMI data from the CABLE study demonstrates the practical utility of our proposal. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Multilayer perceptron for robust nonlinear interval regression analysis using genetic algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yi-Chung

    2014-01-01

    On the basis of fuzzy regression, computational models in intelligence such as neural networks have the capability to be applied to nonlinear interval regression analysis for dealing with uncertain and imprecise data. When training data are not contaminated by outliers, computational models perform well by including almost all given training data in the data interval. Nevertheless, since training data are often corrupted by outliers, robust learning algorithms employed to resist outliers for interval regression analysis have been an interesting area of research. Several approaches involving computational intelligence are effective for resisting outliers, but the required parameters for these approaches are related to whether the collected data contain outliers or not. Since it seems difficult to prespecify the degree of contamination beforehand, this paper uses multilayer perceptron to construct the robust nonlinear interval regression model using the genetic algorithm. Outliers beyond or beneath the data interval will impose slight effect on the determination of data interval. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method performs well for contaminated datasets.

  10. Use of a Regression Model to Study Host-Genomic Determinants of Phage Susceptibility in MRSA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zschach, Henrike; Larsen, Mette V; Hasman, Henrik

    2018-01-01

    strains to 12 (nine monovalent) different therapeutic phage preparations and subsequently employed linear regression models to estimate the influence of individual host gene families on resistance to phages. Specifically, we used a two-step regression model setup with a preselection step based on gene...... family enrichment. We show that our models are robust and capture the data's underlying signal by comparing their performance to that of models build on randomized data. In doing so, we have identified 167 gene families that govern phage resistance in our strain set and performed functional analysis...... on them. This revealed genes of possible prophage or mobile genetic element origin, along with genes involved in restriction-modification and transcription regulators, though the majority were genes of unknown function. This study is a step in the direction of understanding the intricate host...

  11. Building interpretable predictive models for pediatric hospital readmission using Tree-Lasso logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jovanovic, Milos; Radovanovic, Sandro; Vukicevic, Milan; Van Poucke, Sven; Delibasic, Boris

    2016-09-01

    Quantification and early identification of unplanned readmission risk have the potential to improve the quality of care during hospitalization and after discharge. However, high dimensionality, sparsity, and class imbalance of electronic health data and the complexity of risk quantification, challenge the development of accurate predictive models. Predictive models require a certain level of interpretability in order to be applicable in real settings and create actionable insights. This paper aims to develop accurate and interpretable predictive models for readmission in a general pediatric patient population, by integrating a data-driven model (sparse logistic regression) and domain knowledge based on the international classification of diseases 9th-revision clinical modification (ICD-9-CM) hierarchy of diseases. Additionally, we propose a way to quantify the interpretability of a model and inspect the stability of alternative solutions. The analysis was conducted on >66,000 pediatric hospital discharge records from California, State Inpatient Databases, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project between 2009 and 2011. We incorporated domain knowledge based on the ICD-9-CM hierarchy in a data driven, Tree-Lasso regularized logistic regression model, providing the framework for model interpretation. This approach was compared with traditional Lasso logistic regression resulting in models that are easier to interpret by fewer high-level diagnoses, with comparable prediction accuracy. The results revealed that the use of a Tree-Lasso model was as competitive in terms of accuracy (measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve-AUC) as the traditional Lasso logistic regression, but integration with the ICD-9-CM hierarchy of diseases provided more interpretable models in terms of high-level diagnoses. Additionally, interpretations of models are in accordance with existing medical understanding of pediatric readmission. Best performing models have

  12. No rationale for 1 variable per 10 events criterion for binary logistic regression analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maarten van Smeden

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ten events per variable (EPV is a widely advocated minimal criterion for sample size considerations in logistic regression analysis. Of three previous simulation studies that examined this minimal EPV criterion only one supports the use of a minimum of 10 EPV. In this paper, we examine the reasons for substantial differences between these extensive simulation studies. Methods The current study uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate small sample bias, coverage of confidence intervals and mean square error of logit coefficients. Logistic regression models fitted by maximum likelihood and a modified estimation procedure, known as Firth’s correction, are compared. Results The results show that besides EPV, the problems associated with low EPV depend on other factors such as the total sample size. It is also demonstrated that simulation results can be dominated by even a few simulated data sets for which the prediction of the outcome by the covariates is perfect (‘separation’. We reveal that different approaches for identifying and handling separation leads to substantially different simulation results. We further show that Firth’s correction can be used to improve the accuracy of regression coefficients and alleviate the problems associated with separation. Conclusions The current evidence supporting EPV rules for binary logistic regression is weak. Given our findings, there is an urgent need for new research to provide guidance for supporting sample size considerations for binary logistic regression analysis.

  13. No rationale for 1 variable per 10 events criterion for binary logistic regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Smeden, Maarten; de Groot, Joris A H; Moons, Karel G M; Collins, Gary S; Altman, Douglas G; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Reitsma, Johannes B

    2016-11-24

    Ten events per variable (EPV) is a widely advocated minimal criterion for sample size considerations in logistic regression analysis. Of three previous simulation studies that examined this minimal EPV criterion only one supports the use of a minimum of 10 EPV. In this paper, we examine the reasons for substantial differences between these extensive simulation studies. The current study uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate small sample bias, coverage of confidence intervals and mean square error of logit coefficients. Logistic regression models fitted by maximum likelihood and a modified estimation procedure, known as Firth's correction, are compared. The results show that besides EPV, the problems associated with low EPV depend on other factors such as the total sample size. It is also demonstrated that simulation results can be dominated by even a few simulated data sets for which the prediction of the outcome by the covariates is perfect ('separation'). We reveal that different approaches for identifying and handling separation leads to substantially different simulation results. We further show that Firth's correction can be used to improve the accuracy of regression coefficients and alleviate the problems associated with separation. The current evidence supporting EPV rules for binary logistic regression is weak. Given our findings, there is an urgent need for new research to provide guidance for supporting sample size considerations for binary logistic regression analysis.

  14. Grades, Gender, and Encouragement: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Ann L.

    2010-01-01

    The author employs a regression discontinuity design to provide direct evidence on the effects of grades earned in economics principles classes on the decision to major in economics and finds a differential effect for male and female students. Specifically, for female students, receiving an A for a final grade in the first economics class is…

  15. Meta-regression analysis of commensal and pathogenic Escherichia coli survival in soil and water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, Eelco; Schijven, Jack; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Blaak, Hetty

    2014-06-17

    The extent to which pathogenic and commensal E. coli (respectively PEC and CEC) can survive, and which factors predominantly determine the rate of decline, are crucial issues from a public health point of view. The goal of this study was to provide a quantitative summary of the variability in E. coli survival in soil and water over a broad range of individual studies and to identify the most important sources of variability. To that end, a meta-regression analysis on available literature data was conducted. The considerable variation in reported decline rates indicated that the persistence of E. coli is not easily predictable. The meta-analysis demonstrated that for soil and water, the type of experiment (laboratory or field), the matrix subtype (type of water and soil), and temperature were the main factors included in the regression analysis. A higher average decline rate in soil of PEC compared with CEC was observed. The regression models explained at best 57% of the variation in decline rate in soil and 41% of the variation in decline rate in water. This indicates that additional factors, not included in the current meta-regression analysis, are of importance but rarely reported. More complete reporting of experimental conditions may allow future inference on the global effects of these variables on the decline rate of E. coli.

  16. Non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis using B-spline quantile regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasri, B.; Bouezmarni, T.; St-Hilaire, A.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

    2017-11-01

    Hydrologic frequency analysis is commonly used by engineers and hydrologists to provide the basic information on planning, design and management of hydraulic and water resources systems under the assumption of stationarity. However, with increasing evidence of climate change, it is possible that the assumption of stationarity, which is prerequisite for traditional frequency analysis and hence, the results of conventional analysis would become questionable. In this study, we consider a framework for frequency analysis of extremes based on B-Spline quantile regression which allows to model data in the presence of non-stationarity and/or dependence on covariates with linear and non-linear dependence. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm was used to estimate quantiles and their posterior distributions. A coefficient of determination and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for quantile regression are used in order to select the best model, i.e. for each quantile, we choose the degree and number of knots of the adequate B-spline quantile regression model. The method is applied to annual maximum and minimum streamflow records in Ontario, Canada. Climate indices are considered to describe the non-stationarity in the variable of interest and to estimate the quantiles in this case. The results show large differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents for an annual maximum and minimum discharge with high annual non-exceedance probabilities.

  17. A Bayesian Nonparametric Causal Model for Regression Discontinuity Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

    2013-01-01

    The regression discontinuity (RD) design (Thistlewaite & Campbell, 1960; Cook, 2008) provides a framework to identify and estimate causal effects from a non-randomized design. Each subject of a RD design is assigned to the treatment (versus assignment to a non-treatment) whenever her/his observed value of the assignment variable equals or…

  18. Robust estimation for homoscedastic regression in the secondary analysis of case-control data

    KAUST Repository

    Wei, Jiawei

    2012-12-04

    Primary analysis of case-control studies focuses on the relationship between disease D and a set of covariates of interest (Y, X). A secondary application of the case-control study, which is often invoked in modern genetic epidemiologic association studies, is to investigate the interrelationship between the covariates themselves. The task is complicated owing to the case-control sampling, where the regression of Y on X is different from what it is in the population. Previous work has assumed a parametric distribution for Y given X and derived semiparametric efficient estimation and inference without any distributional assumptions about X. We take up the issue of estimation of a regression function when Y given X follows a homoscedastic regression model, but otherwise the distribution of Y is unspecified. The semiparametric efficient approaches can be used to construct semiparametric efficient estimates, but they suffer from a lack of robustness to the assumed model for Y given X. We take an entirely different approach. We show how to estimate the regression parameters consistently even if the assumed model for Y given X is incorrect, and thus the estimates are model robust. For this we make the assumption that the disease rate is known or well estimated. The assumption can be dropped when the disease is rare, which is typically so for most case-control studies, and the estimation algorithm simplifies. Simulations and empirical examples are used to illustrate the approach.

  19. Robust estimation for homoscedastic regression in the secondary analysis of case-control data

    KAUST Repository

    Wei, Jiawei; Carroll, Raymond J.; Mü ller, Ursula U.; Keilegom, Ingrid Van; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

    2012-01-01

    Primary analysis of case-control studies focuses on the relationship between disease D and a set of covariates of interest (Y, X). A secondary application of the case-control study, which is often invoked in modern genetic epidemiologic association studies, is to investigate the interrelationship between the covariates themselves. The task is complicated owing to the case-control sampling, where the regression of Y on X is different from what it is in the population. Previous work has assumed a parametric distribution for Y given X and derived semiparametric efficient estimation and inference without any distributional assumptions about X. We take up the issue of estimation of a regression function when Y given X follows a homoscedastic regression model, but otherwise the distribution of Y is unspecified. The semiparametric efficient approaches can be used to construct semiparametric efficient estimates, but they suffer from a lack of robustness to the assumed model for Y given X. We take an entirely different approach. We show how to estimate the regression parameters consistently even if the assumed model for Y given X is incorrect, and thus the estimates are model robust. For this we make the assumption that the disease rate is known or well estimated. The assumption can be dropped when the disease is rare, which is typically so for most case-control studies, and the estimation algorithm simplifies. Simulations and empirical examples are used to illustrate the approach.

  20. [Prediction model of health workforce and beds in county hospitals of Hunan by multiple linear regression].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Ru; Liu, Jiawang

    2011-12-01

    To construct prediction model for health workforce and hospital beds in county hospitals of Hunan by multiple linear regression. We surveyed 16 counties in Hunan with stratified random sampling according to uniform questionnaires,and multiple linear regression analysis with 20 quotas selected by literature view was done. Independent variables in the multiple linear regression model on medical personnels in county hospitals included the counties' urban residents' income, crude death rate, medical beds, business occupancy, professional equipment value, the number of devices valued above 10 000 yuan, fixed assets, long-term debt, medical income, medical expenses, outpatient and emergency visits, hospital visits, actual available bed days, and utilization rate of hospital beds. Independent variables in the multiple linear regression model on county hospital beds included the the population of aged 65 and above in the counties, disposable income of urban residents, medical personnel of medical institutions in county area, business occupancy, the total value of professional equipment, fixed assets, long-term debt, medical income, medical expenses, outpatient and emergency visits, hospital visits, actual available bed days, utilization rate of hospital beds, and length of hospitalization. The prediction model shows good explanatory and fitting, and may be used for short- and mid-term forecasting.

  1. Application of Spatial Regression Models to Income Poverty Ratios in Middle Delta Contiguous Counties in Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sohair F Higazi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Regression analysis depends on several assumptions that have to be satisfied. A major assumption that is never satisfied when variables are from contiguous observations is the independence of error terms. Spatial analysis treated the violation of that assumption by two derived models that put contiguity of observations into consideration. Data used are from Egypt's 2006 latest census, for 93 counties in middle delta seven adjacent Governorates. The dependent variable used is the percent of individuals classified as poor (those who make less than 1$ daily. Predictors are some demographic indicators. Explanatory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA is performed to examine the existence of spatial clustering and spatial autocorrelation between neighboring counties. The ESDA revealed spatial clusters and spatial correlation between locations. Three statistical models are applied to the data, the Ordinary Least Square regression model (OLS, the Spatial Error Model (SEM and the Spatial Lag Model (SLM.The Likelihood Ratio test and some information criterions are used to compare SLM and SEM to OLS. The SEM model proved to be better than the SLM model. Recommendations are drawn regarding the two spatial models used.

  2. Modelling subject-specific childhood growth using linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grajeda, Laura M; Ivanescu, Andrada; Saito, Mayuko; Crainiceanu, Ciprian; Jaganath, Devan; Gilman, Robert H; Crabtree, Jean E; Kelleher, Dermott; Cabrera, Lilia; Cama, Vitaliano; Checkley, William

    2016-01-01

    Childhood growth is a cornerstone of pediatric research. Statistical models need to consider individual trajectories to adequately describe growth outcomes. Specifically, well-defined longitudinal models are essential to characterize both population and subject-specific growth. Linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines can account for the nonlinearity of growth curves and provide reasonable estimators of population and subject-specific growth, velocity and acceleration. We provide a stepwise approach that builds from simple to complex models, and account for the intrinsic complexity of the data. We start with standard cubic splines regression models and build up to a model that includes subject-specific random intercepts and slopes and residual autocorrelation. We then compared cubic regression splines vis-à-vis linear piecewise splines, and with varying number of knots and positions. Statistical code is provided to ensure reproducibility and improve dissemination of methods. Models are applied to longitudinal height measurements in a cohort of 215 Peruvian children followed from birth until their fourth year of life. Unexplained variability, as measured by the variance of the regression model, was reduced from 7.34 when using ordinary least squares to 0.81 (p linear mixed-effect models with random slopes and a first order continuous autoregressive error term. There was substantial heterogeneity in both the intercept (p modeled with a first order continuous autoregressive error term as evidenced by the variogram of the residuals and by a lack of association among residuals. The final model provides a parametric linear regression equation for both estimation and prediction of population- and individual-level growth in height. We show that cubic regression splines are superior to linear regression splines for the case of a small number of knots in both estimation and prediction with the full linear mixed effect model (AIC 19,352 vs. 19

  3. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURE PATTERNS FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SEA WATER, *SURFACE TEMPERATURE, *OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA, PACIFIC OCEAN, REGRESSION ANALYSIS , STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, UNDERWATER EQUIPMENT, DETECTION, UNDERWATER COMMUNICATIONS, DISTRIBUTION, THERMAL PROPERTIES, COMPUTERS.

  4. Utilização de estratificação e modelo de regressão logística na análise de dados de estudos caso-controle Using of stratification and the logistic regression model in the analysis of data of case-control studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suely Godoy Agostinho Gimeno

    1995-08-01

    Full Text Available Exemplifica-se a aplicação de análise multivariada, por estratificação e com regressão logística, utilizando dados de um estudo caso-controle sobre câncer de esôfago. Oitenta e cinco casos e 292 controles foram classificados segundo sexo, idade e os hábitos de beber e de fumar. As estimativas por ponto dos odds ratios foram semelhantes, sendo as duas técnicas consideradas complementares.Data of a case-control study of esophageal cancer were used as an example of the use of multivariate analysis with stratification and logistic regression. Eighty-five cases and 292 controls were classified according to sex, age and smoking and drinking habits. The point estimates of the odds ratios were similar, and the techniques were considered complementary.

  5. Regression analysis: An evaluation of the inuences behindthe pricing of beer

    OpenAIRE

    Eriksson, Sara; Häggmark, Jonas

    2017-01-01

    This bachelor thesis in applied mathematics is an analysis of which factors affect the pricing of beer at the Swedish market. A multiple linear regression model is created with the statistical programming language R through a study of the influences for several explanatory variables. For example these variables include country of origin, beer style, volume sold and a Bayesian weighted mean rating from RateBeer, a popular website for beer enthusiasts. The main goal of the project is to find si...

  6. Health care: necessity or luxury good? A meta-regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Iordache, Ioana Raluca

    2014-01-01

    When estimating the influence income per capita exerts on health care expenditure, the research in the field offers mixed results. Studies employ different data, estimation techniques and models, which brings about the question whether these differences in research design play any part in explaining the heterogeneity of reported outcomes. By employing meta-regression analysis, the present paper analyzes 220 estimates of health spending income elasticity collected from 54 studies and finds tha...

  7. Application of regression analysis to creep of space shuttle materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rummler, D.R.

    1975-01-01

    Metallic heat shields for Space Shuttle thermal protection systems must operate for many flight cycles at high temperatures in low-pressure air and use thin-gage (less than or equal to 0.65 mm) sheet. Available creep data for thin sheet under those conditions are inadequate. To assess the effects of oxygen partial pressure and sheet thickness on creep behavior and to develop constitutive creep equations for small sets of data, regression techniques are applied and discussed

  8. Semiparametric Mixtures of Regressions with Single-index for Model Based Clustering

    OpenAIRE

    Xiang, Sijia; Yao, Weixin

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we propose two classes of semiparametric mixture regression models with single-index for model based clustering. Unlike many semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models that can only be applied to low dimensional predictors, the new semiparametric models can easily incorporate high dimensional predictors into the nonparametric components. The proposed models are very general, and many of the recently proposed semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models a...

  9. An improved geographically weighted regression model for PM2.5 concentration estimation in large areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Liang; Li, Shuang; Zou, Bin; Sang, Huiyong; Fang, Xin; Xu, Shan

    2018-05-01

    Considering the spatial non-stationary contributions of environment variables to PM2.5 variations, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) modeling method has been using to estimate PM2.5 concentrations widely. However, most of the GWR models in reported studies so far were established based on the screened predictors through pretreatment correlation analysis, and this process might cause the omissions of factors really driving PM2.5 variations. This study therefore developed a best subsets regression (BSR) enhanced principal component analysis-GWR (PCA-GWR) modeling approach to estimate PM2.5 concentration by fully considering all the potential variables' contributions simultaneously. The performance comparison experiment between PCA-GWR and regular GWR was conducted in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region over a one-year-period. Results indicated that the PCA-GWR modeling outperforms the regular GWR modeling with obvious higher model fitting- and cross-validation based adjusted R2 and lower RMSE. Meanwhile, the distribution map of PM2.5 concentration from PCA-GWR modeling also clearly depicts more spatial variation details in contrast to the one from regular GWR modeling. It can be concluded that the BSR enhanced PCA-GWR modeling could be a reliable way for effective air pollution concentration estimation in the coming future by involving all the potential predictor variables' contributions to PM2.5 variations.

  10. Semiparametric nonlinear quantile regression model for financial returns

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Avdulaj, Krenar; Baruník, Jozef

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2017), s. 81-97 ISSN 1081-1826 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : copula quantile regression * realized volatility * value-at-risk Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Applied Economic s, Econometrics Impact factor: 0.649, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/avdulaj-0472346.pdf

  11. Sub-pixel estimation of tree cover and bare surface densities using regression tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Augusto Zangrando Toneli

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Sub-pixel analysis is capable of generating continuous fields, which represent the spatial variability of certain thematic classes. The aim of this work was to develop numerical models to represent the variability of tree cover and bare surfaces within the study area. This research was conducted in the riparian buffer within a watershed of the São Francisco River in the North of Minas Gerais, Brazil. IKONOS and Landsat TM imagery were used with the GUIDE algorithm to construct the models. The results were two index images derived with regression trees for the entire study area, one representing tree cover and the other representing bare surface. The use of non-parametric and non-linear regression tree models presented satisfactory results to characterize wetland, deciduous and savanna patterns of forest formation.

  12. COLOR IMAGE RETRIEVAL BASED ON FEATURE FUSION THROUGH MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Seetharaman

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel technique based on feature fusion using multiple linear regression analysis, and the least-square estimation method is employed to estimate the parameters. The given input query image is segmented into various regions according to the structure of the image. The color and texture features are extracted on each region of the query image, and the features are fused together using the multiple linear regression model. The estimated parameters of the model, which is modeled based on the features, are formed as a vector called a feature vector. The Canberra distance measure is adopted to compare the feature vectors of the query and target images. The F-measure is applied to evaluate the performance of the proposed technique. The obtained results expose that the proposed technique is comparable to the other existing techniques.

  13. Use of multiple linear regression and logistic regression models to investigate changes in birthweight for term singleton infants in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonellie, Sandra R

    2012-10-01

    To illustrate the use of regression and logistic regression models to investigate changes over time in size of babies particularly in relation to social deprivation, age of the mother and smoking. Mean birthweight has been found to be increasing in many countries in recent years, but there are still a group of babies who are born with low birthweights. Population-based retrospective cohort study. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression models are used to analyse data on term 'singleton births' from Scottish hospitals between 1994-2003. Mothers who smoke are shown to give birth to lighter babies on average, a difference of approximately 0.57 Standard deviations lower (95% confidence interval. 0.55-0.58) when adjusted for sex and parity. These mothers are also more likely to have babies that are low birthweight (odds ratio 3.46, 95% confidence interval 3.30-3.63) compared with non-smokers. Low birthweight is 30% more likely where the mother lives in the most deprived areas compared with the least deprived, (odds ratio 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.21-1.40). Smoking during pregnancy is shown to have a detrimental effect on the size of infants at birth. This effect explains some, though not all, of the observed socioeconomic birthweight. It also explains much of the observed birthweight differences by the age of the mother.   Identifying mothers at greater risk of having a low birthweight baby as important implications for the care and advice this group receives. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  14. Use of generalized ordered logistic regression for the analysis of multidrug resistance data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agga, Getahun E; Scott, H Morgan

    2015-10-01

    Statistical analysis of antimicrobial resistance data largely focuses on individual antimicrobial's binary outcome (susceptible or resistant). However, bacteria are becoming increasingly multidrug resistant (MDR). Statistical analysis of MDR data is mostly descriptive often with tabular or graphical presentations. Here we report the applicability of generalized ordinal logistic regression model for the analysis of MDR data. A total of 1,152 Escherichia coli, isolated from the feces of weaned pigs experimentally supplemented with chlortetracycline (CTC) and copper, were tested for susceptibilities against 15 antimicrobials and were binary classified into resistant or susceptible. The 15 antimicrobial agents tested were grouped into eight different antimicrobial classes. We defined MDR as the number of antimicrobial classes to which E. coli isolates were resistant ranging from 0 to 8. Proportionality of the odds assumption of the ordinal logistic regression model was violated only for the effect of treatment period (pre-treatment, during-treatment and post-treatment); but not for the effect of CTC or copper supplementation. Subsequently, a partially constrained generalized ordinal logistic model was built that allows for the effect of treatment period to vary while constraining the effects of treatment (CTC and copper supplementation) to be constant across the levels of MDR classes. Copper (Proportional Odds Ratio [Prop OR]=1.03; 95% CI=0.73-1.47) and CTC (Prop OR=1.1; 95% CI=0.78-1.56) supplementation were not significantly associated with the level of MDR adjusted for the effect of treatment period. MDR generally declined over the trial period. In conclusion, generalized ordered logistic regression can be used for the analysis of ordinal data such as MDR data when the proportionality assumptions for ordered logistic regression are violated. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  15. Beta Regression Finite Mixture Models of Polarization and Priming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smithson, Michael; Merkle, Edgar C.; Verkuilen, Jay

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the application of finite-mixture general linear models based on the beta distribution to modeling response styles, polarization, anchoring, and priming effects in probability judgments. These models, in turn, enhance our capacity for explicitly testing models and theories regarding the aforementioned phenomena. The mixture…

  16. Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Regression Modeling of Ground PM2.5 Concentrations Using Remotely Sensed Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingyi Zhang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a regression model using the Eigenvector Spatial Filtering (ESF method to estimate ground PM2.5 concentrations. Covariates are derived from remotely sensed data including aerosol optical depth, normal differential vegetation index, surface temperature, air pressure, relative humidity, height of planetary boundary layer and digital elevation model. In addition, cultural variables such as factory densities and road densities are also used in the model. With the Yangtze River Delta region as the study area, we constructed ESF-based Regression (ESFR models at different time scales, using data for the period between December 2015 and November 2016. We found that the ESFR models effectively filtered spatial autocorrelation in the OLS residuals and resulted in increases in the goodness-of-fit metrics as well as reductions in residual standard errors and cross-validation errors, compared to the classic OLS models. The annual ESFR model explained 70% of the variability in PM2.5 concentrations, 16.7% more than the non-spatial OLS model. With the ESFR models, we performed detail analyses on the spatial and temporal distributions of PM2.5 concentrations in the study area. The model predictions are lower than ground observations but match the general trend. The experiment shows that ESFR provides a promising approach to PM2.5 analysis and prediction.

  17. Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Regression Modeling of Ground PM2.5 Concentrations Using Remotely Sensed Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jingyi; Li, Bin; Chen, Yumin; Chen, Meijie; Fang, Tao; Liu, Yongfeng

    2018-06-11

    This paper proposes a regression model using the Eigenvector Spatial Filtering (ESF) method to estimate ground PM 2.5 concentrations. Covariates are derived from remotely sensed data including aerosol optical depth, normal differential vegetation index, surface temperature, air pressure, relative humidity, height of planetary boundary layer and digital elevation model. In addition, cultural variables such as factory densities and road densities are also used in the model. With the Yangtze River Delta region as the study area, we constructed ESF-based Regression (ESFR) models at different time scales, using data for the period between December 2015 and November 2016. We found that the ESFR models effectively filtered spatial autocorrelation in the OLS residuals and resulted in increases in the goodness-of-fit metrics as well as reductions in residual standard errors and cross-validation errors, compared to the classic OLS models. The annual ESFR model explained 70% of the variability in PM 2.5 concentrations, 16.7% more than the non-spatial OLS model. With the ESFR models, we performed detail analyses on the spatial and temporal distributions of PM 2.5 concentrations in the study area. The model predictions are lower than ground observations but match the general trend. The experiment shows that ESFR provides a promising approach to PM 2.5 analysis and prediction.

  18. A Linear Regression Model for Global Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surfaces at Warri, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael S. Okundamiya

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The growing anxiety on the negative effects of fossil fuels on the environment and the global emission reduction targets call for a more extensive use of renewable energy alternatives. Efficient solar energy utilization is an essential solution to the high atmospheric pollution caused by fossil fuel combustion. Global solar radiation (GSR data, which are useful for the design and evaluation of solar energy conversion system, are not measured at the forty-five meteorological stations in Nigeria. The dearth of the measured solar radiation data calls for accurate estimation. This study proposed a temperature-based linear regression, for predicting the monthly average daily GSR on horizontal surfaces, at Warri (latitude 5.020N and longitude 7.880E an oil city located in the south-south geopolitical zone, in Nigeria. The proposed model is analyzed based on five statistical indicators (coefficient of correlation, coefficient of determination, mean bias error, root mean square error, and t-statistic, and compared with the existing sunshine-based model for the same study. The results indicate that the proposed temperature-based linear regression model could replace the existing sunshine-based model for generating global solar radiation data. Keywords: air temperature; empirical model; global solar radiation; regression analysis; renewable energy; Warri

  19. Improving the Prediction of Total Surgical Procedure Time Using Linear Regression Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edelman, Eric R; van Kuijk, Sander M J; Hamaekers, Ankie E W; de Korte, Marcel J M; van Merode, Godefridus G; Buhre, Wolfgang F F A

    2017-01-01

    For efficient utilization of operating rooms (ORs), accurate schedules of assigned block time and sequences of patient cases need to be made. The quality of these planning tools is dependent on the accurate prediction of total procedure time (TPT) per case. In this paper, we attempt to improve the accuracy of TPT predictions by using linear regression models based on estimated surgeon-controlled time (eSCT) and other variables relevant to TPT. We extracted data from a Dutch benchmarking database of all surgeries performed in six academic hospitals in The Netherlands from 2012 till 2016. The final dataset consisted of 79,983 records, describing 199,772 h of total OR time. Potential predictors of TPT that were included in the subsequent analysis were eSCT, patient age, type of operation, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, and type of anesthesia used. First, we computed the predicted TPT based on a previously described fixed ratio model for each record, multiplying eSCT by 1.33. This number is based on the research performed by van Veen-Berkx et al., which showed that 33% of SCT is generally a good approximation of anesthesia-controlled time (ACT). We then systematically tested all possible linear regression models to predict TPT using eSCT in combination with the other available independent variables. In addition, all regression models were again tested without eSCT as a predictor to predict ACT separately (which leads to TPT by adding SCT). TPT was most accurately predicted using a linear regression model based on the independent variables eSCT, type of operation, ASA classification, and type of anesthesia. This model performed significantly better than the fixed ratio model and the method of predicting ACT separately. Making use of these more accurate predictions in planning and sequencing algorithms may enable an increase in utilization of ORs, leading to significant financial and productivity related benefits.

  20. Improving the Prediction of Total Surgical Procedure Time Using Linear Regression Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric R. Edelman

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available For efficient utilization of operating rooms (ORs, accurate schedules of assigned block time and sequences of patient cases need to be made. The quality of these planning tools is dependent on the accurate prediction of total procedure time (TPT per case. In this paper, we attempt to improve the accuracy of TPT predictions by using linear regression models based on estimated surgeon-controlled time (eSCT and other variables relevant to TPT. We extracted data from a Dutch benchmarking database of all surgeries performed in six academic hospitals in The Netherlands from 2012 till 2016. The final dataset consisted of 79,983 records, describing 199,772 h of total OR time. Potential predictors of TPT that were included in the subsequent analysis were eSCT, patient age, type of operation, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA physical status classification, and type of anesthesia used. First, we computed the predicted TPT based on a previously described fixed ratio model for each record, multiplying eSCT by 1.33. This number is based on the research performed by van Veen-Berkx et al., which showed that 33% of SCT is generally a good approximation of anesthesia-controlled time (ACT. We then systematically tested all possible linear regression models to predict TPT using eSCT in combination with the other available independent variables. In addition, all regression models were again tested without eSCT as a predictor to predict ACT separately (which leads to TPT by adding SCT. TPT was most accurately predicted using a linear regression model based on the independent variables eSCT, type of operation, ASA classification, and type of anesthesia. This model performed significantly better than the fixed ratio model and the method of predicting ACT separately. Making use of these more accurate predictions in planning and sequencing algorithms may enable an increase in utilization of ORs, leading to significant financial and productivity related

  1. Regression analysis for LED color detection of visual-MIMO system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banik, Partha Pratim; Saha, Rappy; Kim, Ki-Doo

    2018-04-01

    Color detection from a light emitting diode (LED) array using a smartphone camera is very difficult in a visual multiple-input multiple-output (visual-MIMO) system. In this paper, we propose a method to determine the LED color using a smartphone camera by applying regression analysis. We employ a multivariate regression model to identify the LED color. After taking a picture of an LED array, we select the LED array region, and detect the LED using an image processing algorithm. We then apply the k-means clustering algorithm to determine the number of potential colors for feature extraction of each LED. Finally, we apply the multivariate regression model to predict the color of the transmitted LEDs. In this paper, we show our results for three types of environmental light condition: room environmental light, low environmental light (560 lux), and strong environmental light (2450 lux). We compare the results of our proposed algorithm from the analysis of training and test R-Square (%) values, percentage of closeness of transmitted and predicted colors, and we also mention about the number of distorted test data points from the analysis of distortion bar graph in CIE1931 color space.

  2. Generating linear regression model to predict motor functions by use of laser range finder during TUG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Daiki; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Hotta, Takayuki; Tashiro, Yuto; Morino, Saori; Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nozaki, Yuma; Hirata, Hinako; Yamaguchi, Moe; Yorozu, Ayanori; Takahashi, Masaki; Aoyama, Tomoki

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate which spatial and temporal parameters of the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test are associated with motor function in elderly individuals. This study included 99 community-dwelling women aged 72.9 ± 6.3 years. Step length, step width, single support time, variability of the aforementioned parameters, gait velocity, cadence, reaction time from starting signal to first step, and minimum distance between the foot and a marker placed to 3 in front of the chair were measured using our analysis system. The 10-m walk test, five times sit-to-stand (FTSTS) test, and one-leg standing (OLS) test were used to assess motor function. Stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis was used to determine which TUG test parameters were associated with each motor function test. Finally, we calculated a predictive model for each motor function test using each regression coefficient. In stepwise linear regression analysis, step length and cadence were significantly associated with the 10-m walk test, FTSTS and OLS test. Reaction time was associated with the FTSTS test, and step width was associated with the OLS test. Each predictive model showed a strong correlation with the 10-m walk test and OLS test (P motor function test. Moreover, the TUG test time regarded as the lower extremity function and mobility has strong predictive ability in each motor function test. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese Orthopaedic Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Experimental and regression analysis for multi cylinder diesel engine operated with hybrid fuel blends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gopal Rajendiran

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research work is to build a multiple linear regression model for the characteristics of multicylinder diesel engine using multicomponent blends (diesel- pungamia methyl ester-ethanol as fuel. Nine blends were tested by varying diesel (100 to 10% by Vol., biodiesel (80 to 10% by vol. and keeping ethanol as 10% constant. The brake thermal efficiency, smoke, oxides of nitrogen, carbon dioxide, maximum cylinder pressure, angle of maximum pressure, angle of 5% and 90% mass burning were predicted based on load, speed, diesel and biodiesel percentage. To validate this regression model another multi component fuel comprising diesel-palm methyl ester-ethanol was used in same engine. Statistical analysis was carried out between predicted and experimental data for both fuel. The performance, emission and combustion characteristics of multi cylinder diesel engine using similar fuel blends can be predicted without any expenses for experimentation.

  4. Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Hagai; Jørgensen, Niels; Martino-Andrade, Anderson; Mendiola, Jaime; Weksler-Derri, Dan; Mindlis, Irina; Pinotti, Rachel; Swan, Shanna H

    2017-11-01

    Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. To provide a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of recent trends in sperm counts as measured by sperm concentration (SC) and total sperm count (TSC), and their modification by fertility and geographic group. PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for English language studies of human SC published in 1981-2013. Following a predefined protocol 7518 abstracts were screened and 2510 full articles reporting primary data on SC were reviewed. A total of 244 estimates of SC and TSC from 185 studies of 42 935 men who provided semen samples in 1973-2011 were extracted for meta-regression analysis, as well as information on years of sample collection and covariates [fertility group ('Unselected by fertility' versus 'Fertile'), geographic group ('Western', including North America, Europe Australia and New Zealand versus 'Other', including South America, Asia and Africa), age, ejaculation abstinence time, semen collection method, method of measuring SC and semen volume, exclusion criteria and indicators of completeness of covariate data]. The slopes of SC and TSC were estimated as functions of sample collection year using both simple linear regression and weighted meta-regression models and the latter were adjusted for pre-determined covariates and modification by fertility and geographic group. Assumptions were examined using multiple sensitivity analyses and nonlinear models. SC declined significantly between 1973 and 2011 (slope in unadjusted simple regression models -0.70 million/ml/year; 95% CI: -0.72 to -0.69; P regression analysis reports a significant decline in sperm counts (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, driven by a 50-60% decline among men unselected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because

  5. A generalized exponential time series regression model for electricity prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldrup, Niels; Knapik, Oskar; Proietti, Tomasso

    on the estimated model, the best linear predictor is constructed. Our modeling approach provides good fit within sample and outperforms competing benchmark predictors in terms of forecasting accuracy. We also find that building separate models for each hour of the day and averaging the forecasts is a better...

  6. Forecast Model of Urban Stagnant Water Based on Logistic Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Pan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of information technology, the construction of water resource system has been gradually carried out. In the background of big data, the work of water information needs to carry out the process of quantitative to qualitative change. Analyzing the correlation of data and exploring the deep value of data which are the key of water information’s research. On the basis of the research on the water big data and the traditional data warehouse architecture, we try to find out the connection of different data source. According to the temporal and spatial correlation of stagnant water and rainfall, we use spatial interpolation to integrate data of stagnant water and rainfall which are from different data source and different sensors, then use logistic regression to find out the relationship between them.

  7. Parental Vaccine Acceptance: A Logistic Regression Model Using Previsit Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sara; Riley-Behringer, Maureen; Rose, Jeanmarie C; Meropol, Sharon B; Lazebnik, Rina

    2017-07-01

    This study explores how parents' intentions regarding vaccination prior to their children's visit were associated with actual vaccine acceptance. A convenience sample of parents accompanying 6-week-old to 17-year-old children completed a written survey at 2 pediatric practices. Using hierarchical logistic regression, for hospital-based participants (n = 216), vaccine refusal history ( P < .01) and vaccine decision made before the visit ( P < .05) explained 87% of vaccine refusals. In community-based participants (n = 100), vaccine refusal history ( P < .01) explained 81% of refusals. Over 1 in 5 parents changed their minds about vaccination during the visit. Thirty parents who were previous vaccine refusers accepted current vaccines, and 37 who had intended not to vaccinate choose vaccination. Twenty-nine parents without a refusal history declined vaccines, and 32 who did not intend to refuse before the visit declined vaccination. Future research should identify key factors to nudge parent decision making in favor of vaccination.

  8. Machine Learning Algorithms Outperform Conventional Regression Models in Predicting Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singal, Amit G.; Mukherjee, Ashin; Elmunzer, B. Joseph; Higgins, Peter DR; Lok, Anna S.; Zhu, Ji; Marrero, Jorge A; Waljee, Akbar K

    2015-01-01

    Background Predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been limited by modest accuracy and lack of validation. Machine learning algorithms offer a novel methodology, which may improve HCC risk prognostication among patients with cirrhosis. Our study's aim was to develop and compare predictive models for HCC development among cirrhotic patients, using conventional regression analysis and machine learning algorithms. Methods We enrolled 442 patients with Child A or B cirrhosis at the University of Michigan between January 2004 and September 2006 (UM cohort) and prospectively followed them until HCC development, liver transplantation, death, or study termination. Regression analysis and machine learning algorithms were used to construct predictive models for HCC development, which were tested on an independent validation cohort from the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) Trial. Both models were also compared to the previously published HALT-C model. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and diagnostic accuracy was assessed with net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement statistics. Results After a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 41 patients developed HCC. The UM regression model had a c-statistic of 0.61 (95%CI 0.56-0.67), whereas the machine learning algorithm had a c-statistic of 0.64 (95%CI 0.60–0.69) in the validation cohort. The machine learning algorithm had significantly better diagnostic accuracy as assessed by net reclassification improvement (pmachine learning algorithm (p=0.047). Conclusion Machine learning algorithms improve the accuracy of risk stratifying patients with cirrhosis and can be used to accurately identify patients at high-risk for developing HCC. PMID:24169273

  9. Improving sub-pixel imperviousness change prediction by ensembling heterogeneous non-linear regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drzewiecki Wojciech

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work nine non-linear regression models were compared for sub-pixel impervious surface area mapping from Landsat images. The comparison was done in three study areas both for accuracy of imperviousness coverage evaluation in individual points in time and accuracy of imperviousness change assessment. The performance of individual machine learning algorithms (Cubist, Random Forest, stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees, k-nearest neighbors regression, random k-nearest neighbors regression, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, averaged neural networks, and support vector machines with polynomial and radial kernels was also compared with the performance of heterogeneous model ensembles constructed from the best models trained using particular techniques.

  10. SPECIFICS OF THE APPLICATIONS OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL IN THE ANALYSES OF THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko V. Račić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to present the specifics of the application of multiple linear regression model. The economic (financial crisis is analyzed in terms of gross domestic product which is in a function of the foreign trade balance (on one hand and the credit cards, i.e. indebtedness of the population on this basis (on the other hand, in the USA (from 1999. to 2008. We used the extended application model which shows how the analyst should run the whole development process of regression model. This process began with simple statistical features and the application of regression procedures, and ended with residual analysis, intended for the study of compatibility of data and model settings. This paper also analyzes the values of some standard statistics used in the selection of appropriate regression model. Testing of the model is carried out with the use of the Statistics PASW 17 program.

  11. Simulation Experiments in Practice : Statistical Design and Regression Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2007-01-01

    In practice, simulation analysts often change only one factor at a time, and use graphical analysis of the resulting Input/Output (I/O) data. The goal of this article is to change these traditional, naïve methods of design and analysis, because statistical theory proves that more information is

  12. Selective principal component regression analysis of fluorescence hyperspectral image to assess aflatoxin contamination in corn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selective principal component regression analysis (SPCR) uses a subset of the original image bands for principal component transformation and regression. For optimal band selection before the transformation, this paper used genetic algorithms (GA). In this case, the GA process used the regression co...

  13. Generation of Natural Runoff Monthly Series at Ungauged Sites Using a Regional Regressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Pumo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Many hydrologic applications require reliable estimates of runoff in river basins to face the widespread lack of data, both in time and in space. A regional method for the reconstruction of monthly runoff series is here developed and applied to Sicily (Italy. A simple modeling structure is adopted, consisting of a regression-based rainfall–runoff model with four model parameters, calibrated through a two-step procedure. Monthly runoff estimates are based on precipitation, temperature, and exploiting the autocorrelation with runoff at the previous month. Model parameters are assessed by specific regional equations as a function of easily measurable physical and climate basin descriptors. The first calibration step is aimed at the identification of a set of parameters optimizing model performances at the level of single basin. Such “optimal” sets are used at the second step, part of a regional regression analysis, to establish the regional equations for model parameters assessment as a function of basin attributes. All the gauged watersheds across the region have been analyzed, selecting 53 basins for model calibration and using the other six basins exclusively for validation. Performances, quantitatively evaluated by different statistical indexes, demonstrate relevant model ability in reproducing the observed hydrological time-series at both the monthly and coarser time resolutions. The methodology, which is easily transferable to other arid and semi-arid areas, provides a reliable tool for filling/reconstructing runoff time series at any gauged or ungauged basin of a region.

  14. Analysis of Relationship Between Personality and Favorite Places with Poisson Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon Song Ha

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A relationship between human personality and preferred locations have been a long conjecture for human mobility research. In this paper, we analyzed the relationship between personality and visiting place with Poisson Regression. Poisson Regression can analyze correlation between countable dependent variable and independent variable. For this analysis, 33 volunteers provided their personality data and 49 location categories data are used. Raw location data is preprocessed to be normalized into rates of visit and outlier data is prunned. For the regression analysis, independent variables are personality data and dependent variables are preprocessed location data. Several meaningful results are found. For example, persons with high tendency of frequent visiting to university laboratory has personality with high conscientiousness and low openness. As well, other meaningful location categories are presented in this paper.

  15. Comparison of logistic regression and neural models in predicting the outcome of biopsy in breast cancer from MRI findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdolmaleki, P.; Yarmohammadi, M.; Gity, M.

    2004-01-01

    Background: We designed an algorithmic model based on regression analysis and a non-algorithmic model based on the Artificial Neural Network. Materials and methods: The ability of these models was compared together in clinical application to differentiate malignant from benign breast tumors in a study group of 161 patient's records. Each patient's record consisted of 6 subjective features extracted from MRI appearance. These findings were enclosed as features extracted for an Artificial Neural Network as well as a logistic regression model to predict biopsy outcome. After both models had been trained perfectly on samples (n=100), the validation samples (n=61) were presented to the trained network as well as the established logistic regression models. Finally, the diagnostic performance of models were compared to the that of the radiologist in terms of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy, using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: The average out put of the Artificial Neural Network yielded a perfect sensitivity (98%) and high accuracy (90%) similar to that one of an expert radiologist (96% and 92%) while specificity was smaller than that (67%) verses 80%). The output of the logistic regression model using significant features showed improvement in specificity from 60% for the logistic regression model using all features to 93% for the reduced logistic regression model, keeping the accuracy around 90%. Conclusion: Results show that Artificial Neural Network and logistic regression model prove the relationship between extracted morphological features and biopsy results. Using statistically significant variables reduced logistic regression model outperformed of Artificial Neural Network with remarkable specificity while keeping high sensitivity is achieved

  16. Characterization of sonographically indeterminate ovarian tumors with MR imaging. A logistic regression analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Y.; Hatanaka, Y.; Torashima, M.; Takahashi, M.; Miyazaki, K.; Okamura, H.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: The goal of this study was to maximize the discrimination between benign and malignant masses in patients with sonographically indeterminate ovarian lesions by means of unenhanced and contrast-enhanced MR imaging, and to develop a computer-assisted diagnosis system. Material and Methods: Findings in precontrast and Gd-DTPA contrast-enhanced MR images of 104 patients with 115 sonographically indeterminate ovarian masses were analyzed, and the results were correlated with histopathological findings. Of 115 lesions, 65 were benign (23 cystadenomas, 13 complex cysts, 11 teratomas, 6 fibrothecomas, 12 others) and 50 were malignant (32 ovarian carcinomas, 7 metastatic tumors of the ovary, 4 carcinomas of the fallopian tubes, 7 others). A logistic regression analysis was performed to discriminate between benign and malignant lesions, and a model of a computer-assisted diagnosis was developed. This model was prospectively tested in 75 cases of ovarian tumors found at other institutions. Results: From the univariate analysis, the following parameters were selected as significant for predicting malignancy (p≤0.05): A solid or cystic mass with a large solid component or wall thickness greater than 3 mm; complex internal architecture; ascites; and bilaterality. Based on these parameters, a model of a computer-assisted diagnosis system was developed with the logistic regression analysis. To distinguish benign from malignant lesions, the maximum cut-off point was obtained between 0.47 and 0.51. In a prospective application of this model, 87% of the lesions were accurately identified as benign or malignant. (orig.)

  17. Quantile regression analysis of body mass and wages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johar, Meliyanni; Katayama, Hajime

    2012-05-01

    Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, we explore the relationship between body mass and wages. We use quantile regression to provide a broad description of the relationship across the wage distribution. We also allow the relationship to vary by the degree of social skills involved in different jobs. Our results find that for female workers body mass and wages are negatively correlated at all points in their wage distribution. The strength of the relationship is larger at higher-wage levels. For male workers, the relationship is relatively constant across wage distribution but heterogeneous across ethnic groups. When controlling for the endogeneity of body mass, we find that additional body mass has a negative causal impact on the wages of white females earning more than the median wages and of white males around the median wages. Among these workers, the wage penalties are larger for those employed in jobs that require extensive social skills. These findings may suggest that labor markets reward white workers for good physical shape differently, depending on the level of wages and the type of job a worker has. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Length bias correction in gene ontology enrichment analysis using logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Gu; Di, Yanming; Emerson, Sarah; Cumbie, Jason S; Chang, Jeff H

    2012-01-01

    When assessing differential gene expression from RNA sequencing data, commonly used statistical tests tend to have greater power to detect differential expression of genes encoding longer transcripts. This phenomenon, called "length bias", will influence subsequent analyses such as Gene Ontology enrichment analysis. In the presence of length bias, Gene Ontology categories that include longer genes are more likely to be identified as enriched. These categories, however, are not necessarily biologically more relevant. We show that one can effectively adjust for length bias in Gene Ontology analysis by including transcript length as a covariate in a logistic regression model. The logistic regression model makes the statistical issue underlying length bias more transparent: transcript length becomes a confounding factor when it correlates with both the Gene Ontology membership and the significance of the differential expression test. The inclusion of the transcript length as a covariate allows one to investigate the direct correlation between the Gene Ontology membership and the significance of testing differential expression, conditional on the transcript length. We present both real and simulated data examples to show that the logistic regression approach is simple, effective, and flexible.

  19. Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, S.; Hosseinibalam, F.; Omidvari, M.

    2008-04-01

    Data of seven meteorological variables (relative humidity, wet temperature, dry temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, ground temperature and sun radiation time) and ozone values have been used for statistical analysis. Meteorological variables and ozone values were analyzed using both multiple linear regression and principal component methods. Data for the period 1999-2004 are analyzed jointly using both methods. For all periods, temperature dependent variables were highly correlated, but were all negatively correlated with relative humidity. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the meteorological variables using the meteorological variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to obtain subsets of the predictor variables to be included in the linear regression model of the meteorological variables. In 1999, 2001 and 2002 one of the meteorological variables was weakly influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations. However, the model did not predict that the meteorological variables for the year 2000 were not influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations that point to variation in sun radiation. This could be due to other factors that were not explicitly considered in this study.

  20. Logistic regression model for detecting radon prone areas in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elío, J; Crowley, Q; Scanlon, R; Hodgson, J; Long, S

    2017-12-01

    A new high spatial resolution radon risk map of Ireland has been developed, based on a combination of indoor radon measurements (n=31,910) and relevant geological information (i.e. Bedrock Geology, Quaternary Geology, soil permeability and aquifer type). Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of having an indoor radon concentration above the national reference level of 200Bqm -3 in Ireland. The four geological datasets evaluated were found to be statistically significant, and, based on combinations of these four variables, the predicted probabilities ranged from 0.57% to 75.5%. Results show that the Republic of Ireland may be divided in three main radon risk categories: High (HR), Medium (MR) and Low (LR). The probability of having an indoor radon concentration above 200Bqm -3 in each area was found to be 19%, 8% and 3%; respectively. In the Republic of Ireland, the population affected by radon concentrations above 200Bqm -3 is estimated at ca. 460k (about 10% of the total population). Of these, 57% (265k), 35% (160k) and 8% (35k) are in High, Medium and Low Risk Areas, respectively. Our results provide a high spatial resolution utility which permit customised radon-awareness information to be targeted at specific geographic areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.