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Sample records for regional flood frequency

  1. Uncertainty Measures of Regional Flood Frequency Estimators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosbjerg, Dan; Madsen, Henrik

    1995-01-01

    Regional flood frequency models have different assumptions regarding homogeneity and inter-site independence. Thus, uncertainty measures of T-year event estimators are not directly comparable. However, having chosen a particular method, the reliability of the estimate should always be stated, e...

  2. Assessment of homogeneity of regions for regional flood frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jeong Eun; Kim, Nam Won

    2016-04-01

    This paper analyzed the effect of rainfall on hydrological similarity, which is an important step for regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA). For the RFFA, storage function method (SFM) using spatial extension technique was applied for the 22 sub-catchments that are partitioned from Chungju dam watershed in Republic of Korea. We used the SFM to generate the annual maximum floods for 22 sub-catchments using annual maximum storm events (1986~2010) as input data. Then the quantiles of rainfall and flood were estimated using the annual maximum series for the 22 sub-catchments. Finally, spatial variations in terms of two quantiles were analyzed. As a result, there were significant correlation between spatial variations of the two quantiles. This result demonstrates that spatial variation of rainfall is an important factor to explain the homogeneity of regions when applying RFFA. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  3. Regional flood frequency analysis in the KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa, using the index-flood method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Thomas Rødding; Smithers, J.C.; Schulze, R.E.

    2002-01-01

    A regional frequency analysis of annual maximum series (AMS) of flood flows from relatively unregulated rivers in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa has been conducted, including identification of homogeneous regions and suitable regional frequency distributions for the regions. The study...

  4. Nonlinear Filtering Effects of Reservoirs on Flood Frequency Curves at the Regional Scale: RESERVOIRS FILTER FLOOD FREQUENCY CURVES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Wei; Li, Hong-Yi; Leung, Lai-Yung; Yigzaw, Wondmagegn Y.; Zhao, Jianshi; Lu, Hui; Deng, Zhiqun; Demissie, Yonas; Bloschl, Gunter

    2017-10-01

    Anthropogenic activities, e.g., reservoir operation, may alter the characteristics of Flood Frequency Curve (FFC) and challenge the basic assumption of stationarity used in flood frequency analysis. This paper presents a combined data-modeling analysis of the nonlinear filtering effects of reservoirs on the FFCs over the contiguous United States. A dimensionless Reservoir Impact Index (RII), defined as the total upstream reservoir storage capacity normalized by the annual streamflow volume, is used to quantify reservoir regulation effects. Analyses are performed for 388 river stations with an average record length of 50 years. The first two moments of the FFC, mean annual maximum flood (MAF) and coefficient of variations (CV), are calculated for the pre- and post-dam periods and compared to elucidate the reservoir regulation effects as a function of RII. It is found that MAF generally decreases with increasing RII but stabilizes when RII exceeds a threshold value, and CV increases with RII until a threshold value beyond which CV decreases with RII. The processes underlying the nonlinear threshold behavior of MAF and CV are investigated using three reservoir models with different levels of complexity. All models capture the non-linear relationships of MAF and CV with RII, suggesting that the basic flood control function of reservoirs is key to the non-linear relationships. The relative roles of reservoir storage capacity, operation objectives, available storage prior to a flood event, and reservoir inflow pattern are systematically investigated. Our findings may help improve flood-risk assessment and mitigation in regulated river systems at the regional scale.

  5. Do regional methods really help reduce uncertainties in flood frequency analyses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong Nguyen, Chi; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric

    2013-04-01

    Flood frequency analyses are often based on continuous measured series at gauge sites. However, the length of the available data sets is usually too short to provide reliable estimates of extreme design floods. To reduce the estimation uncertainties, the analyzed data sets have to be extended either in time, making use of historical and paleoflood data, or in space, merging data sets considered as statistically homogeneous to build large regional data samples. Nevertheless, the advantage of the regional analyses, the important increase of the size of the studied data sets, may be counterbalanced by the possible heterogeneities of the merged sets. The application and comparison of four different flood frequency analysis methods to two regions affected by flash floods in the south of France (Ardèche and Var) illustrates how this balance between the number of records and possible heterogeneities plays in real-world applications. The four tested methods are: (1) a local statistical analysis based on the existing series of measured discharges, (2) a local analysis valuating the existing information on historical floods, (3) a standard regional flood frequency analysis based on existing measured series at gauged sites and (4) a modified regional analysis including estimated extreme peak discharges at ungauged sites. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to simulate a large number of discharge series with characteristics similar to the observed ones (type of statistical distributions, number of sites and records) to evaluate to which extent the results obtained on these case studies can be generalized. These two case studies indicate that even small statistical heterogeneities, which are not detected by the standard homogeneity tests implemented in regional flood frequency studies, may drastically limit the usefulness of such approaches. On the other hand, these result show that the valuation of information on extreme events, either historical flood events at gauged

  6. Performance of regional flood frequency analysis methods in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-04-03

    Apr 3, 2015 ... Available on website http://www.wrc.org.za. ISSN 1816-7950 ... Estimates of design floods are required for the design of hydraulic structures and to quantify the risk of failure of the ... performance when compared to design floods estimated from the annual maximum series extracted from the observed data.

  7. Revisiting regional flood frequency analysis in Slovakia: the region-of-influence method vs. traditional regional approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaál, Ladislav; Kohnová, Silvia; Szolgay, Ján.

    2010-05-01

    During the last 10-15 years, the Slovak hydrologists and water resources managers have been devoting considerable efforts to develop statistical tools for modelling probabilities of flood occurrence in a regional context. Initially, these models followed concepts to regional flood frequency analysis that were based on fixed regions, later the Hosking and Wallis's (HW; 1997) theory was adopted and modified. Nevertheless, it turned out to be that delineating homogeneous regions using these approaches is not a straightforward task, mostly due to the complex orography of the country. In this poster we aim at revisiting flood frequency analyses so far accomplished for Slovakia by adopting one of the pooling approaches, i.e. the region-of-influence (ROI) approach (Burn, 1990). In the ROI approach, unique pooling groups of similar sites are defined for each site under study. The similarity of sites is defined through Euclidean distance in the space of site attributes that had also proved applicability in former cluster analyses: catchment area, afforested area, hydrogeological catchment index and the mean annual precipitation. The homogeneity of the proposed pooling groups is evaluated by the built-in homogeneity test by Lu and Stedinger (1992). Two alternatives of the ROI approach are examined: in the first one the target size of the pooling groups is adjusted to the target return period T of the estimated flood quantiles, while in the other one, the target size is fixed, regardless of the target T. The statistical models of the ROI approach are inter-compared by the conventional regionalization approach based on the HW methodology where the parameters of flood frequency distributions were derived by means of L-moment statistics and a regional formula for the estimation of the index flood was derived by multiple regression methods using physiographic and climatic catchment characteristics. The inter-comparison of different frequency models is evaluated by means of the

  8. A comparison of regional flood frequency analysis approaches in a simulation framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganora, D.; Laio, F.

    2016-07-01

    Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve at ungauged (or scarcely gauged) sites. Different RFA approaches exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest, but it is not clear in the literature if a specific method systematically outperforms the others. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison by building up a virtual environment based on synthetically generated data. The considered regional approaches include: (i) a unique regional curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model where homogeneous subregions are determined through cluster analysis; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially smooth estimation procedure where the parameters of the regional model vary continuously along the space. Virtual environments are generated considering different patterns of heterogeneity, including step change and smooth variations. If the region is heterogeneous, with the parent distribution changing continuously within the region, the spatially smooth regional approach outperforms the others, with overall errors 10-50% lower than the other methods. In the case of a step-change, the spatially smooth and clustering procedures perform similarly if the heterogeneity is moderate, while clustering procedures work better when the step-change is severe. To extend our findings, an extensive sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the effect of sample length, number of virtual stations, return period of the predicted quantile, variability of the scale parameter of the parent distribution, number of predictor variables and different parent distribution. Overall, the spatially smooth approach appears as the most robust approach as its performances are more stable across different patterns of heterogeneity, especially when short records are

  9. A systematic intercomparison of regional flood frequency analysis models in a simulation framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganora, Daniele; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

    2015-04-01

    Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve (or other discharge-related variables), based on the fundamental concept of substituting temporal information at a site (no data or short time series) by exploiting observations at other sites (spatial information). Different RFA paradigms exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest. Despite the wide use of such methodology, a systematic comparison between these paradigms has not been performed. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison: we thus synthetically generate data through Monte Carlo simulations for a number of (virtual) stations, following a GEV parent distribution; different scenarios can be created to represent different spatial heterogeneity patterns by manipulating the parameters of the parent distribution at each station (e.g. with a linear variation in space of the shape parameter of the GEV). A special case is the homogeneous scenario where each station record is sampled from the same parent distribution. For each scenario and each simulation, different regional models are applied to evaluate the 200-year growth factor at each station. Results are than compared to the exact growth factor of each station, which is known in our virtual world. Considered regional approaches include: (i) a single growth curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model based on cluster analysis which search for an adequate number of homogeneous subregions; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially-smooth estimation procedure based on linear regressions.. A further benchmark model is the at-site estimate based on the analysis of the local record. A comprehensive analysis of the results of the simulations shows that, if the scenario is homogeneous (no spatial variability), all the regional approaches

  10. The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

    2017-04-01

    Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

  11. Flood Risk Regional Flood Defences : Technical report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, M.; Jonkman, S.N.; Lendering, K.T.

    2015-01-01

    Historically the Netherlands have always had to deal with the threat of flooding, both from the rivers and the sea as well as from heavy rainfall. The country consists of a large amount of polders, which are low lying areas of land protected from flooding by embankments. These polders require an

  12. Flood-frequency characteristics of Wisconsin streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, John F.; Peppler, Marie C.; Danz, Mari E.; Hubbard, Laura E.

    2017-05-22

    Flood-frequency characteristics for 360 gaged sites on unregulated rural streams in Wisconsin are presented for percent annual exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.2 to 50 using a statewide skewness map developed for this report. Equations of the relations between flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics were developed by multiple-regression analyses. Flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites on unregulated, rural streams can be estimated by use of the equations presented in this report. The State was divided into eight areas of similar physiographic characteristics. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, main-channel slope, and several land-use variables. The standard error of prediction for the equation for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood ranges from 56 to 70 percent for Wisconsin Streams; these values are larger than results presented in previous reports. The increase in the standard error of prediction is likely due to increased variability of the annual-peak discharges, resulting in increased variability in the magnitude of flood peaks at higher frequencies. For each of the unregulated rural streamflow-gaging stations, a weighted estimate based on the at-site log Pearson type III analysis and the multiple regression results was determined. The weighted estimate generally has a lower uncertainty than either the Log Pearson type III or multiple regression estimates. For regulated streams, a graphical method for estimating flood-frequency characteristics was developed from the relations of discharge and drainage area for selected annual exceedance probabilities. Graphs for the major regulated streams in Wisconsin are presented in the report.

  13. Evaluating Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series for Estimating Frequency of Small Magnitude Floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fazlul Karim

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the nature of frequent floods is important for characterising channel morphology, riparian and aquatic habitat, and informing river restoration efforts. This paper presents results from an analysis on frequency estimates of low magnitude floods using the annual maximum and partial series data compared to actual flood series. Five frequency distribution models were fitted to data from 24 gauging stations in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR lagoon catchments in north-eastern Australia. Based on the goodness of fit test, Generalised Extreme Value, Generalised Pareto and Log Pearson Type 3 models were used to estimate flood frequencies across the study region. Results suggest frequency estimates based on a partial series are better, compared to an annual series, for small to medium floods, while both methods produce similar results for large floods. Although both methods converge at a higher recurrence interval, the convergence recurrence interval varies between catchments. Results also suggest frequency estimates vary slightly between two or more partial series, depending on flood threshold, and the differences are large for the catchments that experience less frequent floods. While a partial series produces better frequency estimates, it can underestimate or overestimate the frequency if the flood threshold differs largely compared to bankfull discharge. These results have significant implications in calculating the dependency of floodplain ecosystems on the frequency of flooding and their subsequent management.

  14. SHYREG, a national database of flood frequency estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available SHYREG method is a regionalized method for rainfall and flood frequency analysis (FFA. It is based on processes simulation. It couples an hourly rainfall generator with a rainfall-runoff model, simplified enough to be regionalized. The method has been calibrated using all hydro meteorological data available at the national level. In France, that represents about 2800 raingauges of the French Weather Service network and about 1800 stations of the hydrometric National Bank network. Then, the method has been regionalized to provide a rainfall and flow quantiles database. An evaluation of the method was carried out during different thesis works and more recently during the ANR project Extraflo, with the aim of comparing different FFA approaches. The accuracy of the method in estimating rainfall and flow quantiles has been proved, as well as its stability due to a parameterization based on average values. The link with rainfall seems preferable to extrapolation based solely on the flow. Thus, another interest of the method is to take into account extreme flood behaviour with help of rainfall frequency estimation. In addition, the approach is implicitly multi-durational, and only one regionalization meets all the needs in terms hydrological hazards characterisation. For engineering needs and to avoid repeating the method implementation, this method has been applied throughout a 50 meters resolution mesh to provide a complete flood quantiles database over the French territory providing regional information on hydrological hazards. However, it is subject to restrictions related to the nature of the method: the SHYREG flows are “natural”, and do not take into account specific cases like the basins highly influenced by presence of hydraulic works, flood expansion areas, high snowmelt or karsts. Information about these restrictions and uncertainty estimation is provided with this database, which can be consulted via web access.

  15. A Bayesian Analysis of the Flood Frequency Hydrology Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    ERDC/CHL CHETN-X-1 February 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A Bayesian Analysis of the Flood Frequency Hydrology ...flood frequency hydrology concept as a formal probabilistic-based means by which to coherently combine and also evaluate the worth of different types...and development. INTRODUCTION: Merz and Blöschl (2008a,b) proposed the concept of flood frequency hydrology , which emphasizes the importance of

  16. Climate, orography and scale controls on flood frequency in Triveneto (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Persiano

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review previously proposed reference procedures for design-flood estimation, such as national flood frequency models. Our study focuses on Triveneto, a broad geographical region in North-eastern Italy. A reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto is available from the Italian NCR research project "VA.PI.", which considered Triveneto as a single homogeneous region and developed a regional model using annual maximum series (AMS of peak discharges that were collected up to the 1980s by the former Italian Hydrometeorological Service. We consider a very detailed AMS database that we recently compiled for 76 catchments located in Triveneto. All 76 study catchments are characterized in terms of several geomorphologic and climatic descriptors. The objective of our study is threefold: (1 to inspect climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime; (2 to verify the possible presence of changes in flood frequency regime by looking at changes in time of regional L-moments of annual maximum floods; (3 to develop an updated reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto by using a focused-pooling approach (i.e. Region of Influence, RoI. Our study leads to the following conclusions: (1 climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime in Triveneto are similar to the controls that were recently found in Europe; (2 a single year characterized by extreme floods can have a remarkable influence on regional flood frequency models and analyses for detecting possible changes in flood frequency regime; (3 no significant change was detected in the flood frequency regime, yet an update of the existing reference procedure for design flood estimation is highly recommended and we propose the RoI approach for properly representing climate and scale controls on flood frequency in Triveneto, which cannot be regarded

  17. Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Arizona, developed with unregulated and rural peak-flow data through water year 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paretti, Nicholas V.; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Turney, Lovina A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

    2014-01-01

    Flooding is among the worst natural disasters responsible for loss of life and property in Arizona, underscoring the importance of accurate estimation of flood magnitude for proper structural design and floodplain mapping. Twenty-four years of additional peak-flow data have been recorded since the last comprehensive regional flood frequency analysis conducted in Arizona. Periodically, flood frequency estimates and regional regression equations must be revised to maintain the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude.

  18. Evaluating relationships between natural resource management, land use changes, and flooding in the Appalachian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas P. Zegre; Samuel J. Lamont

    2013-01-01

    Th e Appalachian Region has a long history of natural resource management and recurrent history of frequent and large-scale floods. Land use activities such as urbanization, mining, forest harvesting, and agriculture can have a noticeable effect on the volume, magnitude, timing, and frequency of floods. Determining the effects of land use on flooding is difficult for...

  19. Influences on flood frequency distributions in Irish river catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ahilan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This study explores influences on flood frequency distributions in Irish rivers. A Generalised Extreme Value (GEV type I distribution is recommended in Ireland for estimating flood quantiles in a single site flood frequency analysis. This paper presents the findings of an investigation that identified the GEV statistical distributions that best fit the annual maximum (AM data series extracted from 172 gauging stations of 126 rivers in Ireland. Analysis of these data was undertaken to explore hydraulic and hydro-geological factors that influence flood frequency distributions. A hierarchical approach of increasing statistical power that used probability plots, moment and L-moment diagrams, the Hosking goodness of fit algorithm and a modified Anderson-Darling (A-D statistical test was followed to determine whether a type I, type II or type III distribution was valid. Results of the Hosking et al. method indicated that of the 143 stations with flow records exceeding 25 yr, data for 95 (67% was best represented by GEV type I distributions and a further 9 (6% and 39 (27% stations followed type II and type III distributions respectively. Type I, type II and type III distributions were determined for 83 (58%, 16 (11% and 34 (24% stations respectively using the modified A-D method (data from 10 stations was not represented by GEV family distributions. The influence of karst terrain on these flood frequency distributions was assessed by incorporating results on an Arc-GIS platform showing karst features and using Monte Carlo simulations to assess the significance of the number and clustering of the observed distributions. Floodplain effects were identified by using two-sample t-tests to identify statistical correlations between the distributions and catchment properties that are indicative of strong floodplain activity. The data reveals that type I distributions are spatially well represented throughout the country. While also well represented throughout

  20. Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, Maya K.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E.

    2017-06-01

    The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estimates of flood return periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report characterized the multiplication factor by which the frequency of flooding of a given height increases (referred to here as an amplification factor; AF). However, this characterization neither rigorously considered uncertainty in SLR nor distinguished between the amplification of different flooding levels (such as the 10% versus 0.2% annual chance floods); therefore, it may be seriously misleading. Because both historical flood frequency and projected SLR are uncertain, we combine joint probability distributions of the two to calculate AFs and their uncertainties over time. Under probabilistic relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1- to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100-year floods for tide-gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050. While some places can expect disproportionate amplification of higher frequency events and thus primarily a greater number of historically precedented floods, others face amplification of lower frequency events and thus a particularly fast growing risk of historically unprecedented flooding. For example, with 50 cm of SLR, the 10%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods are expected respectively to recur 108, 335, and 814 times as often in Seattle, but 148, 16, and 4 times as often in Charleston, SC.

  1. Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, M. J.; Botero, B. A.; López, J.; Francés, F.; Díez-Herrero, A.; Benito, G.

    2015-06-01

    Historical records are an important source of information on extreme and rare floods and fundamental to establish a reliable flood return frequency. The use of long historical records for flood frequency analysis brings in the question of flood stationarity, since climatic and land-use conditions can affect the relevance of past flooding as a predictor of future flooding. In this paper, a detailed 400 yr flood record from the Tagus River in Aranjuez (central Spain) was analysed under stationary and non-stationary flood frequency approaches, to assess their contribution within hazard studies. Historical flood records in Aranjuez were obtained from documents (Proceedings of the City Council, diaries, chronicles, memoirs, etc.), epigraphic marks, and indirect historical sources and reports. The water levels associated with different floods (derived from descriptions or epigraphic marks) were computed into discharge values using a one-dimensional hydraulic model. Secular variations in flood magnitude and frequency, found to respond to climate and environmental drivers, showed a good correlation between high values of historical flood discharges and a negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Over the systematic gauge record (1913-2008), an abrupt change on flood magnitude was produced in 1957 due to constructions of three major reservoirs in the Tagus headwaters (Bolarque, Entrepeñas and Buendia) controlling 80% of the watershed surface draining to Aranjuez. Two different models were used for the flood frequency analysis: (a) a stationary model estimating statistical distributions incorporating imprecise and categorical data based on maximum likelihood estimators, and (b) a time-varying model based on "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS) modelling, which incorporates external covariates related to climate variability (NAO index) and catchment hydrology factors (in this paper a reservoir index; RI). Flood frequency

  2. FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL FOR FLOOD CONTROL IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Niger Delta Region of Nigeria is within the mangrove forest region and is crisscrossed by series of streams and creeks. As a result of the high rainfall volume within this region there is a tendency for severe flooding to occur. These flood events have severe consequences on lives and properties. It is therefore necessary ...

  3. Frequency and seasonality of flash floods in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trobec Tajan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to assess and analyse the dynamics of flash flooding events in Slovenia. The paper examines in particular the frequency of flash floods and their seasonal distribution. The methodology is based on the analysis of historical records and modern flood data. The results of a long-term frequency analysis of 138 flash floods that occurred between 1550 and 2015 are presented. Because of the lack of adequate historical flood data prior to 1950 the main analysis is based on data for the periodbetween1951 and2015, while the analysis of data for the period between1550 and1950 is added as a supplement to the main analysis. Analysis of data for the period after 1950 shows that on average 1.3 flash floods occur each year in Slovenia. The linear trend for the number of flash floods is increasing but is not statistically significant. Despite the fact that the majority of Slovenian rivers have one of the peaks in spring and one of the lows in summer, 90% of flash floods actually occur during meteorological summer or autumn - i.e. between June and November, which shows that discharge regimes and flood regimes are not necessarily related. Because of the lack of flood records from the more distant past as well as the large variability of flash flood events in the last several decades, we cannot provide a definitive answer to the question about possible changes in their frequency and seasonality by relying solely on the detected trends. Nevertheless, considering the results of analysis and future climate change scenarios the frequency of flash floods in Slovenia could increase while the period of flash flood occurrence could be extended.

  4. Estimation of Internal Flooding Frequency for Screening Analysis of Flooding PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Jun Eon

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the internal frequency for the quantitative screening analysis of the flooding PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) with the appropriate data and estimation method. In the case of the existing flood PSA for domestic NPPs (Nuclear Power Plant), the screening analysis was performed firstly and then detailed analysis was performed for the area not screened out. For the quantitative screening analysis, the plant area based flood frequency by MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) method was used, while the component based flood frequency is used for the detailed analysis. The existing quantitative screening analysis for domestic NPPs have used data from all LWRs (Light Water Reactor), namely PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) and BWR (Boiling Water Reactor) for the internal flood frequency of the auxiliary building and turbine building. However, in the case of the primary auxiliary building, the applicability of the data from all LWRs needs to be examined carefully because of the significant difference in equipments between the PWR and BWR structure. NUREG/CR-5750 suggested the Bayesian update method with Jeffrey's noninformative prior to estimate the initiating event frequency for the flood. It, however, did not describe any procedure of the flood PSA. Recently, Fleming and Lydell suggested the internal flooding frequency in the unit of the plant operation year-pipe length (in meter) by pipe size of each specific system which is susceptible to the flooding such as the service water system and the circulating water system. They used the failure rate, the rupture conditional probability given the failure to estimate the internal flooding frequency, and the Bayesian update to reduce uncertainties. To perform the quantitative screening analysis with the method, it requires pipe length by each pipe size of the specific system per each divided area to change the concept of the component based frequency to the concept of the plant area

  5. Conditional flood frequency and catchment state: a simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brettschneider, Marco; Bourgin, François; Merz, Bruno; Andreassian, Vazken; Blaquiere, Simon

    2017-04-01

    Catchments have memory and the conditional flood frequency distribution for a time period ahead can be seen as non-stationary: it varies with the catchment state and climatic factors. From a risk management perspective, understanding the link of conditional flood frequency to catchment state is a key to anticipate potential periods of higher flood risk. Here, we adopt a simulation approach to explore the link between flood frequency obtained by continuous rainfall-runoff simulation and the initial state of the catchment. The simulation chain is based on i) a three state rainfall generator applied at the catchment scale, whose parameters are estimated for each month, and ii) the GR4J lumped rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters are calibrated with all available data. For each month, a large number of stochastic realizations of the continuous rainfall generator for the next 12 months are used as inputs for the GR4J model in order to obtain a large number of stochastic realizations for the next 12 months. This process is then repeated for 50 different initial states of the soil moisture reservoir of the GR4J model and for all the catchments. Thus, 50 different conditional flood frequency curves are obtained for the 50 different initial catchment states. We will present an analysis of the link between the catchment states, the period of the year and the strength of the conditioning of the flood frequency compared to the unconditional flood frequency. A large sample of diverse catchments in France will be used.

  6. Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

    2007-12-01

    Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

  7. Forest cover, socioeconomics, and reported flood frequency in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Susana; Ghimire, Ramesh

    2012-08-01

    In this paper, we analyze the determinants of the number of large floods reported since 1990. Using the same sample of countries as Bradshaw et al. (2007), and, like them, omitting socioeconomic characteristics from the analysis, we found that a reduction in natural forest cover is associated with an increase in the reported count of large floods. This result does not hold in any of three new analyses we perform. First, we expand the sample to include all the developing countries and all countries for which data were available but were omitted in their study. Second, and more importantly, since forest management is just one possible channel through which humans can influence reported flood frequency, we account for other important human-flood interactions. People are typically responsible for deforestation, but they are also responsible for other land use changes (e.g., urbanization), for floodplain and flood emergency management, and for reporting the floods. Thus, in our analysis we account for population, urban population growth, income, and corruption. Third, we exploit the panel nature of the data to control for unobserved country and time heterogeneity. We conclude that not only is the link between forest cover and reported flood frequency at the country level not robust, it also seems to be driven by sample selection and omitted variable bias. The human impact on the reported frequency of large floods at the country level is not through deforestation.

  8. New mechanism under International Flood Initiative toward robustness for flood management in the Asia Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murase, M.; Yoshitani, J.; Takeuchi, K.; Koike, T.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is likely to result in increases in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events. It is imperative that a good understanding is developed of how climate change affects the events that are reflected in hydrological extremes such as floods and how practitioners in water resources management deal with them. Since there is still major uncertainty as to how the impact of climate change affect actual water resources management, it is important to build robustness into management schemes and communities. Flood management under such variety of uncertainty favors the flexible and adaptive implementation both in top-down and bottom-up approaches. The former uses projections of global or spatially downscaled models to drive resource models and project resource impacts. The latter utilizes policy or planning tools to identify what changes in climate would be most threatening to their long-range operations. Especially for the bottom-up approaches, it is essential to identify the gap between what should be done and what has not been achieved for disaster risks. Indicators or index are appropriate tools to measure such gaps, but they are still in progress to cover the whole world. The International Flood Initiative (IFI), initiated in January 2005 by UNESCO and WMO in close cooperation with UNU and ISDR, IAHS and IAHR, has promoted an integrated approach to flood management to take advantage of floods and use of flood plains while reducing the social, environmental and economic risks. Its secretariat is located in ICHARM. The initiative objective is to support national platforms to practice evidence-based disaster risk reduction through mobilizing scientific and research networks at national, regional and international levels. The initiative is now preparing for a new mechanism to facilitate the integrated approach for flood management on the ground regionally in the Asia Pacific (IFI-AP) through monitoring, assessment and capacity building.

  9. Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

  10. Extent and frequency of floods on Delaware River in vicinity of Belvidere, New Jersey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farlekas, George M.

    1966-01-01

    A stream overflowing its banks is a natural phenomenon. This natural phenomenon of flooding has occurred on the Delaware River in the past and will occur in the future. T' o resulting inundation of large areas can cause property damage, business losses and possible loss of life, and may result in emergency costs for protection, rescue, and salvage work. For optimum development of the river valley consistent with the flood risk, an evaluation of flood conditions is necessary. Basic data and the interpretation of the data on the regimen of the streams, particularly the magnitude of floods to be expected, the frequency of their occurrence, and the areas inundated, are essential for planning and development of flood-prone areas.This report presents information relative to the extent, depth, and frequency of floods on the Delaware River and its tributaries in the vicinity of Belvidere, N.J. Flooding on the tributaries detailed in the report pertains only to the effect of backwater from the Delaware River. Data are presented for several past floods with emphasis given to the floods of August 19, 1955 and May 24, 1942. In addition, information is given for a hypothetical flood based on the flood of August 19, 1955 modified by completed (since 1955) and planned flood-control works.By use of relations presented in this report the extent, depth, and frequency of flooding can be estimated for any site along the reach of the Delaware River under study. Flood data and the evaluation of the data are presented so that local and regional agencies, organizations, and individuals may have a technical basis for making decisions on the use of flood-prone areas. The Delaware River Basin Commission and the U.S. Geological Survey regard this program of flood-plain inundation studies as a positive step toward flood-damage prevention. Flood-plain inundation studies, when followed by appropriate land-use regulations, are a valuable and economical supplement to physical works for flood

  11. Floods on small streams in North Carolina, probable magnitude and frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinson, Herbert G.

    1965-01-01

    The magnitude and frequency of floods are defined regionally for small streams (drainage area, 1 to 150 sq mi) in North Carolina. Composite frequency curves for each of two regions relate the magnitude of the annual flood, in ratio to the mean annual flood, to recurrence intervals of 1.1 to 50 years. In North Carolina, the mean annual flood (Q2.33) is related to drainage area (A) by the following equation: Q2. 33 = GA0.66, where G, the geographic factor, is the product of a statewide coefficient (US) times a correction which reflects differences in basin characteristics. Isograms of the G factor covering the State are presented.

  12. Effect of catchment properties and flood generation regime on copula selection for bivariate flood frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipova, Valeriya; Lawrence, Deborah; Klempe, Harald

    2018-02-01

    Applying copula-based bivariate flood frequency analysis is advantageous because the results provide information on both the flood peak and volume. More data are, however, required for such an analysis, and it is often the case that only data series with a limited record length are available. To overcome this issue of limited record length, data regarding climatic and geomorphological properties can be used to complement statistical methods. In this paper, we present a study of 27 catchments located throughout Norway, in which we assess whether catchment properties, flood generation processes and flood regime have an effect on the correlation between flood peak and volume and, in turn, on the selection of copulas. To achieve this, the annual maximum flood events were first classified into events generated primarily by rainfall, snowmelt or a combination of these. The catchments were then classified into flood regime, depending on the predominant flood generation process producing the annual maximum flood events. A contingency table and Fisher's exact test were used to determine the factors that affect the selection of copulas in the study area. The results show that the two-parameter copulas BB1 and BB7 are more commonly selected in catchments with high steepness, high mean annual runoff and rainfall flood regime. These findings suggest that in these types of catchments, the dependence structure between flood peak and volume is more complex and cannot be modeled effectively using a one-parameter copula. The results illustrate that by relating copula types to flood regime and catchment properties, additional information can be supplied for selecting copulas in catchments with limited data.

  13. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  14. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L; Fletcher, Charles H; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D

    2017-05-18

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  15. Identification of Flood Reactivity Regions via the Functional Clustering of Hydrographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunner, Manuela I.; Viviroli, Daniel; Furrer, Reinhard; Seibert, Jan; Favre, Anne-Catherine

    2018-03-01

    Flood hydrograph shapes contain valuable information on the flood-generation mechanisms of a catchment. To make good use of this information, we express flood hydrograph shapes as continuous functions using a functional data approach. We propose a clustering approach based on functional data for flood hydrograph shapes to identify a set of representative hydrograph shapes on a catchment scale and use these catchment-specific sets of representative hydrographs to establish regions of catchments with similar flood reactivity on a regional scale. We applied this approach to flood samples of 163 medium-size Swiss catchments. The results indicate that three representative hydrograph shapes sufficiently describe the hydrograph shape variability within a catchment and therefore can be used as a proxy for the flood behavior of a catchment. These catchment-specific sets of three hydrographs were used to group the catchments into three reactivity regions of similar flood behavior. These regions were not only characterized by similar hydrograph shapes and reactivity but also by event magnitudes and triggering event conditions. We envision these regions to be useful in regionalization studies, regional flood frequency analyses, and to allow for the construction of synthetic design hydrographs in ungauged catchments. The clustering approach based on functional data which establish these regions is very flexible and has the potential to be extended to other geographical regions or toward the use in climate impact studies.

  16. Revision of regional maximum flood (RMF) estimation in Namibia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Extreme flood hydrology in Namibia for the past 30 years has largely been based on the South African Department of Water Affairs Technical Report 137 (TR 137) of 1988. This report proposes an empirically established upper limit of flood peaks for regions called the regional maximum flood (RMF), which could be ...

  17. Large-scale derived flood frequency analysis based on continuous simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dung Nguyen, Viet; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    There is an increasing need for spatially consistent flood risk assessments at the regional scale (several 100.000 km2), in particular in the insurance industry and for national risk reduction strategies. However, most large-scale flood risk assessments are composed of smaller-scale assessments and show spatial inconsistencies. To overcome this deficit, a large-scale flood model composed of a weather generator and catchments models was developed reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The weather generator is a multisite and multivariate stochastic model capable of generating synthetic meteorological fields (precipitation, temperature, etc.) at daily resolution for the regional scale. These fields respect the observed autocorrelation, spatial correlation and co-variance between the variables. They are used as input into catchment models. A long-term simulation of this combined system enables to derive very long discharge series at many catchment locations serving as a basic for spatially consistent flood risk estimates at the regional scale. This combined model was set up and validated for major river catchments in Germany. The weather generator was trained by 53-year observation data at 528 stations covering not only the complete Germany but also parts of France, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Australia with the aggregated spatial scale of 443,931 km2. 10.000 years of daily meteorological fields for the study area were generated. Likewise, rainfall-runoff simulations with SWIM were performed for the entire Elbe, Rhine, Weser, Donau and Ems catchments. The validation results illustrate a good performance of the combined system, as the simulated flood magnitudes and frequencies agree well with the observed flood data. Based on continuous simulation this model chain is then used to estimate flood quantiles for the whole Germany including upstream headwater catchments in neighbouring countries. This continuous large scale approach overcomes the several

  18. More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in the Pearl River basin, China, since 1951 and over the past 1000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Sun, Peng

    2018-05-01

    Flood risks across the Pearl River basin, China, were evaluated using a peak flood flow dataset covering a period of 1951-2014 from 78 stations and historical flood records of the past 1000 years. The generalized extreme value (GEV) model and the kernel estimation method were used to evaluate frequencies and risks of hazardous flood events. Results indicated that (1) no abrupt changes or significant trends could be detected in peak flood flow series at most of the stations, and only 16 out of 78 stations exhibited significant peak flood flow changes with change points around 1990. Peak flood flow in the West River basin increased and significant increasing trends were identified during 1981-2010; decreasing peak flood flow was found in coastal regions and significant trends were observed during 1951-2014 and 1966-2014. (2) The largest three flood events were found to cluster in both space and time. Generally, basin-scale flood hazards can be expected in the West and North River basins. (3) The occurrence rate of floods increased in the middle Pearl River basin but decreased in the lower Pearl River basin. However, hazardous flood events were observed in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, and this is particularly true for the past 100 years. However, precipitation extremes were subject to moderate variations and human activities, such as building of levees, channelization of river systems, and rapid urbanization; these were the factors behind the amplification of floods in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, posing serious challenges for developing measures of mitigation of flood hazards in the lower Pearl River basin, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region.

  19. Quantification of Uncertainty in the Flood Frequency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasiapillai Sudalaimuthu, K.; He, J.; Swami, D.

    2017-12-01

    Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is usually carried out for planning and designing of water resources and hydraulic structures. Owing to the existence of variability in sample representation, selection of distribution and estimation of distribution parameters, the estimation of flood quantile has been always uncertain. Hence, suitable approaches must be developed to quantify the uncertainty in the form of prediction interval as an alternate to deterministic approach. The developed framework in the present study to include uncertainty in the FFA discusses a multi-objective optimization approach to construct the prediction interval using ensemble of flood quantile. Through this approach, an optimal variability of distribution parameters is identified to carry out FFA. To demonstrate the proposed approach, annual maximum flow data from two gauge stations (Bow river at Calgary and Banff, Canada) are used. The major focus of the present study was to evaluate the changes in magnitude of flood quantiles due to the recent extreme flood event occurred during the year 2013. In addition, the efficacy of the proposed method was further verified using standard bootstrap based sampling approaches and found that the proposed method is reliable in modeling extreme floods as compared to the bootstrap methods.

  20. A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate

  1. Floods in the United States: Magnitude and frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, Clarence S.; ,

    1936-01-01

    From time immemorial floods have transformed beneficent river waters into a menace to humanity. Man's progress toward economic stability has been repeatedly halted or even thrown backward by the interruption of his efforts to make effective use of rivers and of valley lands. This handicap is not imposed by the destructiveness of large rivers alone, or of rivers in widely separated areas, for there are few if any streams, brooks, or rivulets that are not subject to flows beyond their channel capacities. Yet, though man for ages has suffered seriously from recurring floods, he has not been deterred from continuing to extend his activities in areas that are virtually foredoomed to flood damage.Today in the United States serious floods may occur in any section in any year, and even, in some regions, several times a year. Many of these floods leave behind them the tragedy of death and disease and of property irreparably damaged. The aggregate direct property damage caused by floods in this country has been estimated roughly to average $35,000,000 a year. In addition there are serious indirect and intangible losses of great but not precisely calculable magnitude.

  2. Estimation of Flood-Frequency Discharges for Rural, Unregulated Streams in West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Atkins, John T.

    2010-01-01

    Flood-frequency discharges were determined for 290 streamgage stations having a minimum of 9 years of record in West Virginia and surrounding states through the 2006 or 2007 water year. No trend was determined in the annual peaks used to calculate the flood-frequency discharges. Multiple and simple least-squares regression equations for the 100-year (1-percent annual-occurrence probability) flood discharge with independent variables that describe the basin characteristics were developed for 290 streamgage stations in West Virginia and adjacent states. The regression residuals for the models were evaluated and used to define three regions of the State, designated as Eastern Panhandle, Central Mountains, and Western Plateaus. Exploratory data analysis procedures identified 44 streamgage stations that were excluded from the development of regression equations representative of rural, unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations for the 1.1-, 1.5-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year flood discharges were determined by generalized least-squares regression using data from the remaining 246 streamgage stations. Drainage area was the only significant independent variable determined for all equations in all regions. Procedures developed to estimate flood-frequency discharges on ungaged streams were based on (1) regional equations and (2) drainage-area ratios between gaged and ungaged locations on the same stream. The procedures are applicable only to rural, unregulated streams within the boundaries of West Virginia that have drainage areas within the limits of the stations used to develop the regional equations (from 0.21 to 1,461 square miles in the Eastern Panhandle, from 0.10 to 1,619 square miles in the Central Mountains, and from 0.13 to 1,516 square miles in the Western Plateaus). The accuracy of the equations is quantified by measuring the average prediction error (from 21.7 to 56.3 percent) and equivalent years of record (from 2.0 to 70

  3. Looking for the best flash floods indicators in Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Turco, Marco

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods are a recurrent hazard in Mediterranean Region. From a global point of view, a distinction between two kinds of floods can be made (Llasat, 2009): a) Short-lived and strongly convective events (cases recorded between 2005 and 2006. This sample has been increased with some selected cases of the European project HYDRATE. Information from all the flash-floods recorded in Catalonia (Spain) since 1982, completed with data about population density and so on, has also been considered.

  4. Optimal depth-based regional frequency analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wazneh

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Classical methods of regional frequency analysis (RFA of hydrological variables face two drawbacks: (1 the restriction to a particular region which can lead to a loss of some information and (2 the definition of a region that generates a border effect. To reduce the impact of these drawbacks on regional modeling performance, an iterative method was proposed recently, based on the statistical notion of the depth function and a weight function φ. This depth-based RFA (DBRFA approach was shown to be superior to traditional approaches in terms of flexibility, generality and performance. The main difficulty of the DBRFA approach is the optimal choice of the weight function ϕ (e.g., φ minimizing estimation errors. In order to avoid a subjective choice and naïve selection procedures of φ, the aim of the present paper is to propose an algorithm-based procedure to optimize the DBRFA and automate the choice of ϕ according to objective performance criteria. This procedure is applied to estimate flood quantiles in three different regions in North America. One of the findings from the application is that the optimal weight function depends on the considered region and can also quantify the region's homogeneity. By comparing the DBRFA to the canonical correlation analysis (CCA method, results show that the DBRFA approach leads to better performances both in terms of relative bias and mean square error.

  5. Optimal depth-based regional frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wazneh, H.; Chebana, F.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

    2013-06-01

    Classical methods of regional frequency analysis (RFA) of hydrological variables face two drawbacks: (1) the restriction to a particular region which can lead to a loss of some information and (2) the definition of a region that generates a border effect. To reduce the impact of these drawbacks on regional modeling performance, an iterative method was proposed recently, based on the statistical notion of the depth function and a weight function φ. This depth-based RFA (DBRFA) approach was shown to be superior to traditional approaches in terms of flexibility, generality and performance. The main difficulty of the DBRFA approach is the optimal choice of the weight function ϕ (e.g., φ minimizing estimation errors). In order to avoid a subjective choice and naïve selection procedures of φ, the aim of the present paper is to propose an algorithm-based procedure to optimize the DBRFA and automate the choice of ϕ according to objective performance criteria. This procedure is applied to estimate flood quantiles in three different regions in North America. One of the findings from the application is that the optimal weight function depends on the considered region and can also quantify the region's homogeneity. By comparing the DBRFA to the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) method, results show that the DBRFA approach leads to better performances both in terms of relative bias and mean square error.

  6. Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.

    2017-12-01

    Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

  7. Framework for probabilistic flood risk assessment in an Alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneeberger, Klaus; Huttenlau, Matthias; Steinberger, Thomas; Achleitner, Stefan; Stötter, Johann

    2014-05-01

    historic and synthetic flood events have to be spatially interpolated from point scale (i.e. river gauges) to the river network. Therefore, topological kriging (Top-kriging) proposed by Skøien et al. (2006) is applied. Top-kriging considers the nested structure of river networks and is therefore suitable to regionalise flood characteristics. Thus, the characteristics of a large number of possible flood events can be transferred to arbitrary locations (e.g. community level) at the river network within a study region. This framework has been used to generate a set of spatial correlated river flood events in the Austrian Federal Province of Vorarlberg. In addition, loss-probability-curves for each community has been calculated based on official inundation maps of public authorities, elements at risks and their vulnerability. One location along the river network within each community refers as interface between the set of flood events and the individual loss-probability relationships for the individual communities. Consequently, every flood event from the historic and synthetic generated dataset can be monetary evaluated. Thus, a time series comprising a large number of flood events and their corresponding monetary losses serves as basis for a probabilistic flood risk assessment. This includes expected annual losses and estimates of extreme event losses, which occur over the course of a certain time period. The gained results are essential decision-support for primary insurers, reinsurance companies and public authorities in order to setup a scale adequate risk management.

  8. Historical floods in flood frequency analysis: Is this game worth the candle?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strupczewski, Witold G.; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Bogdanowicz, Ewa

    2017-11-01

    In flood frequency analysis (FFA) the profit from inclusion of historical information on the largest historical pre-instrumental floods depends primarily on reliability of the information, i.e. the accuracy of magnitude and return period of floods. This study is focused on possible theoretical maximum gain in accuracy of estimates of upper quantiles, that can be obtained by incorporating the largest historical floods of known return periods into the FFA. We assumed a simple case: N years of systematic records of annual maximum flows and either one largest (XM1) or two largest (XM1 and XM2) flood peak flows in a historical M-year long period. The problem is explored by Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Both correct and false distributional assumptions are considered. In the first case the two-parameter extreme value models (Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Weibull) with various coefficients of variation serve as parent distributions. In the case of unknown parent distribution, the Weibull distribution was assumed as estimating model and the truncated Gumbel as parent distribution. The return periods of XM1 and XM2 are determined from the parent distribution. The results are then compared with the case, when return periods of XM1 and XM2 are defined by their plotting positions. The results are presented in terms of bias, root mean square error and the probability of overestimation of the quantile with 100-year return period. The results of the research indicate that the maximal profit of inclusion of pre-instrumental foods in the FFA may prove smaller than the cost of reconstruction of historical hydrological information.

  9. Flood frequency approach in a Mediterranean Flash Flood basin. A case study in the Besòs catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, D.; Zanon, F.; Corral, C.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the Mediterranean areas. In particular, the region of Catalonia (North-East Spain) is one of the most affected by flash floods in the Iberian Peninsula. The high rainfall intensities generating these events, the specific terrain characteristics giving rise to very fast hydrological responses and the high variability in space and time of both rain and land surface, are the main features of FF and also the main cause of their extreme complexity. Distributed hydrological models have been developed to increase the flow forecast resolution in order to implement effective operational warning systems. Some studies have shown how the distributed-models accuracy is highly sensitive to reduced computational grid scale, so, hydrological model uncertainties must be studied. In these conditions, an estimation of the modeling uncertainty (whatever the accuracy is) becomes highly valuable information to enhance our ability to predict the occurrence of flash flooding. The statistical-distributed modeling approach (Reed, 2004) is proposed in the present study to simulate floods on a small basin and account for hydrologic modeling uncertainty. The Besòs catchment (1020 km2), near Barcelona, has been selected in this study to apply the proposed flood frequency methodology. Hydrometeorological data is available for 11 rain-gauges and 6 streamflow gauges in the last 12 years, and a total of 9 flood events have been identified and analyzed in this study. The DiCHiTop hydrological model (Corral, 2004) was developed to fit operational requirements in the Besòs catchment: distributed, robust and easy to implement. It is a grid-based model that works at a given resolution (here at 1 × 1 km2, the hydrological cell), defining a simplified drainage system at this scale. A loss function is applied at the hydrological cell resolution, provided by a coupled storage model between the SCS model (Mockus, 1957) in urban areas and

  10. Flash Floods Simulation using a Physical-Based Hydrological Model at Different Hydroclimatic Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saber, Mohamed; Kamil Yilmaz, Koray

    2016-04-01

    Currently, flash floods are seriously increasing and affecting many regions over the world. Therefore, this study will focus on two case studies; Wadi Abu Subeira, Egypt as arid environment, and Karpuz basin, Turkey as Mediterranean environment. The main objective of this work is to simulate flash floods at both catchments considering the hydrometeorological differences between them which in turn effect their flash flood behaviors. An integrated methodology incorporating Hydrological River Basin Environmental Assessment Model (Hydro-BEAM) and remote sensing observations was devised. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP) were compared with the rain gauge network at the target basins to estimate the bias in an effort to further use it effectively in simulation of flash floods. Based on the preliminary results of flash floods simulation on both basins, we found that runoff behaviors of flash floods are different due to the impacts of climatology, hydrological and topographical conditions. Also, the simulated surface runoff hydrographs are reasonably coincide with the simulated ones. Consequently, some mitigation strategies relying on this study could be introduced to help in reducing the flash floods disasters at different climate regions. This comparison of different climatic basins would be a reasonable implication for the potential impact of climate change on the flash floods frequencies and occurrences.

  11. Flood frequency analysis and generation of flood hazard indicator maps in a semi-arid environment, case of Ourika watershed (western High Atlas, Morocco)

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Alaoui El Fels, Abdelhafid; Alaa, Noureddine; Bachnou, Ali; Rachidi, Said

    2018-05-01

    The development of the statistical models and flood risk modeling approaches have seen remarkable improvements in their productivities. Their application in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in developing countries, can be extremely useful for better assessment and planning of flood risk in order to reduce the catastrophic impacts of this phenomenon. This study focuses on the Setti Fadma region (Ourika basin, Morocco) which is potentially threatened by floods and is subject to climatic and anthropogenic forcing. The study is based on two main axes: (i) the extreme flow frequency analysis, using 12 probability laws adjusted by Maximum Likelihood method and (ii) the generation of the flood risk indicator maps are based on the solution proposed by the Nays2DFlood solver of the Hydrodynamic model of two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. The study is used as a spatial high-resolution digital model (Lidar) in order to get the nearest hydrological simulation of the reality. The results showed that the GEV is the most appropriate law of the extreme flows estimation for different return periods. Taking into consideration the mapping of 100-year flood area, the study revealed that the fluvial overflows extent towards the banks of Ourika and consequently, affects some living areas, cultivated fields and the roads that connects the valley to the city of Marrakech. The aim of this study is to propose new technics of the flood risk management allowing a better planning of the flooded areas.

  12. Estimation of design floods in ungauged catchments using a regional index flood method. A case study of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobert, Joel; Mugo, Margaret; Gadain, Hussein

    Reliable estimation of flood magnitudes corresponding to required return periods, vital for structural design purposes, is impacted by lack of hydrological data in the study area of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya. Use of regional information, derived from data at gauged sites and regionalized for use at any location within a homogenous region, would improve the reliability of the design flood estimation. Therefore, the regional index flood method has been applied. Based on data from 14 gauged sites, a delineation of the basin into two homogenous regions was achieved using elevation variation (90-m DEM), spatial annual rainfall pattern and Principal Component Analysis of seasonal rainfall patterns (from 94 rainfall stations). At site annual maximum series were modelled using the Log normal (LN) (3P), Log Logistic Distribution (LLG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distributions. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments. Goodness of fit tests were applied and the GEV was identified as the most appropriate model for each site. Based on the GEV model, flood quantiles were estimated and regional frequency curves derived from the averaged at site growth curves. Using the least squares regression method, relationships were developed between the index flood, which is defined as the Mean Annual Flood (MAF) and catchment characteristics. The relationships indicated area, mean annual rainfall and altitude were the three significant variables that greatly influence the index flood. Thereafter, estimates of flood magnitudes in ungauged catchments within a homogenous region were estimated from the derived equations for index flood and quantiles from the regional curves. These estimates will improve flood risk estimation and to support water management and engineering decisions and actions.

  13. Methodology for Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency for New Jersey Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Kara M.; Schopp, Robert D.

    2009-01-01

    Methodologies were developed for estimating flood magnitudes at the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals for unregulated or slightly regulated streams in New Jersey. Regression equations that incorporate basin characteristics were developed to estimate flood magnitude and frequency for streams throughout the State by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. Relations between flood-frequency estimates based on streamflow-gaging-station discharge and basin characteristics were determined by multiple regression analysis, and weighted by effective years of record. The State was divided into five hydrologically similar regions to refine the regression equations. The regression analysis indicated that flood discharge, as determined by the streamflow-gaging-station annual peak flows, is related to the drainage area, main channel slope, percentage of lake and wetland areas in the basin, population density, and the flood-frequency region, at the 95-percent confidence level. The standard errors of estimate for the various recurrence-interval floods ranged from 48.1 to 62.7 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2007 and basin characteristics determined using geographic information system techniques for 254 streamflow-gaging stations were used for the regression analysis. Drainage areas of the streamflow-gaging stations range from 0.18 to 779 mi2. Peak-flow data and basin characteristics for 191 streamflow-gaging stations located in New Jersey were used, along with peak-flow data for stations located in adjoining States, including 25 stations in Pennsylvania, 17 stations in New York, 16 stations in Delaware, and 5 stations in Maryland. Streamflow records for selected stations outside of New Jersey were included in the present study because hydrologic, physiographic, and geologic boundaries commonly extend beyond political boundaries. The StreamStats web application was developed

  14. Regional flood reconstruction in Kullu District (Himachal Pradesh, India): implication for Disaster Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Stoffel, Markus; Trappmann, Daniel; Shekhar, Mayank; Bhattacharyya, Amalava

    2016-04-01

    Floods are a common natural hazard in the Western Indian Himalayas. They usually occur when humid monsoon airs are lifted along the Himalayan relief, thereby creating intense orographic rainfall and runoff, a process which is often enhanced by simultaneous snowmelt. Monsoon floods are considered a major threat in the region and frequently affect inhabited valleys, disturbing the status quo of communities, stressing the future welfare and condition of their economic development. Given the assumption that ongoing and future climatic changes may impact on monsoon patterns and extreme precipitation, the implementation of adaptation policies in this region is critically needed in order to improve local resilience of Himalayan communities. However, its success implementation is highly dependent on system knowledge and hence reliable baseline data of past disasters. In this communication, we demonstrate how newly gained knowledge on past flood incidents may improve flood hazard and risk assessments. Based on growth-ring analysis of trees growing in the floodplains and other, more classical paleo-hydrology techniques, we reconstruct the regional flood activity for the last decades. This information is then included as non-systematic data into the regional flood frequency by using Bayesian Markov Monte Carlo Chain algorithms, so as to analyse the impact of the additional data on flood hazard assessments. Moreover, through a detailed analysis of three flood risk hotspots, we demonstrate how the newly gained knowledge on past flood disasters derived from indirect proxies can explain failures in the implementation of disaster risk management (DRM). Our methodology allowed identification of thirty-four unrecorded flood events at the study sites located in the upper reaches since the early 20th century, and thus completion of the existing flood history in the region based on flow measurements in the lower part of the catchment. We observe that 56% of the floods occurred

  15. Towards a systematic approach to comparing distributions used in flood frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobée, B.; Cavadias, G.; Ashkar, F.; Bernier, J.; Rasmussen, P.

    1993-02-01

    The estimation of flood quantiles from available streamflow records has been a topic of extensive research in this century. However, the large number of distributions and estimation methods proposed in the scientific literature has led to a state of confusion, and a gap prevails between theory and practice. This concerns both at-site and regional flood frequency estimation. To facilitate the work of "hydrologists, designers of hydraulic structures, irrigation engineers and planners of water resources", the World Meteorological Organization recently published a report which surveys and compares current methodologies, and recommends a number of statistical distributions and estimation procedures. This report is an important step towards the clarification of this difficult topic, but we think that it does not effectively satisfy the needs of practitioners as intended, because it contains some statements which are not statistically justified and which require further discussion. In the present paper we review commonly used procedures for flood frequency estimation, point out some of the reasons for the present state of confusion concerning the advantages and disadvantages of the various methods, and propose the broad lines of a possible comparison strategy. We recommend that the results of such comparisons be discussed in an international forum of experts, with the purpose of attaining a more coherent and broadly accepted strategy for estimating floods.

  16. Measuring flood footprint of a regional economy - A case study for the UK flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, D.

    2013-12-01

    Analysis of the urban economy and society is central to understanding the broad impacts of flooding and to identify cost-effective adaptation and mitigation measures. Assessments of the flooding impacts on cities have traditionally focused on the initial impact on people and assets. These initial estimates (so-called ';direct damage') are useful both in understanding the immediate implications of damage, and in marshalling the pools of capital and supplies required for re-building after an event. Since different economies as well as societies are coupled, especially under the current economic crisis, any small-scale damage may be multiplied and cascaded throughout wider economic systems and social networks. The direct and indirect damage is currently not evaluated well and could be captured by quantification of what we call the flood footprint. Flooding in one location can impact the whole UK economy. Neglecting these knock-on costs (i.e. the true footprint of the flood) means we might be ignoring the economic benefits and beneficiaries of flood risk management interventions. In 2007, for example, floods cost the economy about £3.2 bn directly, but the wider effect might actually add another 50% to 250% to that. Flood footprint is a measure of the exclusive total socioeconomic impact that is directly and indirectly caused by a flood event to the flooding region and wider economic systems and social networks. We adopt the UK 2012 flooding. An input-output basic dynamic inequalities (BDI) model is used to assess the impact of the floodings on the level of a Yorkshire economy, accounting for interactions between industries through demand and supply of intermediate consumption goods with a circular flow. After the disaster the economy will be unbalanced. The recovery process finishes when the economy is completely balance, i.e., when labour production capacity equals demands and production and all the variables reach pre-disaster levels. The analysis is carried out

  17. 6-kyr record of flood frequency and intensity in the western Mediterranean Alps - Interplay of solar and temperature forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabatier, Pierre; Wilhelm, Bruno; Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Moiroux, Fanny; Poulenard, Jérôme; Develle, Anne-Lise; Bichet, Adeline; Chen, Wentao; Pignol, Cécile; Reyss, Jean-Louis; Gielly, Ludovic; Bajard, Manon; Perrette, Yves; Malet, Emmanuel; Taberlet, Pierre; Arnaud, Fabien

    2017-08-01

    The high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis of a sediment sequence from Lake Savine (Western Mediterranean Alps, France) led to the identification of 220 event layers for the last 6000 years. 200 were triggered by flood events and 20 by underwater mass movements possibly related to earthquakes that occurred in 5 clusters of increase seismicity. Because human activity could influence the flood chronicle, the presence of pastures was reconstructed through ancient DNA, which suggested that the flood chronicle was mainly driven by hydroclimate variability. Weather reanalysis of historical floods allow to identify that mesoscale precipitation events called "East Return" events were the main triggers of floods recorded in Lake Savine. The first part of this palaeoflood record (6-4 kyr BP) was characterized by increases in flood frequency and intensity in phase with Northern Alpine palaeoflood records. By contrast, the second part of the record (i.e., since 4 kyr BP) was phased with Southern Alpine palaeoflood records. These results suggest a palaeohydrological transition at approximately 4 kyr BP, as has been previously described for the Mediterranean region. This may have resulted in a change of flood-prone hydro-meteorological processes, i.e., in the balance between occurrence and intensity of local convective climatic phenomena and their influence on Mediterranean mesoscale precipitation events in this part of the Alps. At a centennial timescale, increases in flood frequency and intensity corresponded to periods of solar minima, affecting climate through atmospheric changes in the Euro-Atlantic sector.

  18. Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

    2014-01-01

    Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for such things as the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, Flood Insurance Studies, and flood-plain management. The flood-frequency estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. A multistate approach was used to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The multistate approach has the advantage over a single state approach of increasing the number of stations available for analysis, expanding the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across state boundaries, and building on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) in the Southeastern United States. In addition, streamgages from the inner Coastal Plain of New Jersey were included in the analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques were used to generate predictive equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows for urban and small, rural ungaged basins for three hydrologic regions; the Piedmont-Ridge and Valley, Sand Hills, and Coastal Plain. Incorporation of urban streamgages from New Jersey also allowed for the expansion of the applicability of the predictive equations in the Coastal Plain from 2.1 to 53.5 square miles. Explanatory variables in the regression equations included drainage area (DA) and percent of impervious area (IA) for the Piedmont-Ridge and Valley region; DA and percent of developed land for the Sand Hills; and DA, IA, and 24-hour, 50-year maximum precipitation for the Coastal Plain. An application spreadsheet also was developed that can be used to compute the flood-frequency estimates along with the 95-percent prediction

  19. Attenuating reaches and the regional flood response of an urbanizing drainage basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner-Gillespie, Daniel F.; Smith, James A.; Bates, Paul D.

    The Charlotte, North Carolina metropolitan area has experienced extensive urban and suburban growth and sharply increasing trends in the magnitude and frequency of flooding. The hydraulics and hydrology of flood response in the region are examined through a combination of numerical modeling studies and diagnostic analyses of paired discharge observations from upstream-downstream gaging stations. The regional flood response is shown to strongly reflect urbanization effects, which increase flood peaks and decrease response times, and geologically controlled attenuating reaches, which decrease flood peaks and increase lag times. Attenuating reaches are characterized by systematic changes in valley bottom geometry and longitudinal profile. The morphology of the fluvial system is controlled by the bedrock geology, with pronounced changes occurring at or near contacts between intrusive igneous and metamorphic rocks. Analyses of wave celerity and flood peak attenuation over a range of discharge values for an 8.3 km valley bottom section of Little Sugar Creek are consistent with Knight and Shiono's characterization of the variation of flood wave velocity from in-channel conditions to valley bottom full conditions. The cumulative effect of variation in longitudinal profile, expansions and contractions of the valley bottom, floodplain roughness and sub-basin flood response is investigated using a two-dimensional, depth-averaged, finite element hydrodynamic model coupled with a distributed hydrologic model. For a 10.1 km stream reach of Briar Creek, with drainage area ranging from 13 km 2 at the upstream end of the reach to 49 km 2 at the downstream end, it is shown that flood response reflects a complex interplay of hydrologic and hydraulic processes on hillslopes and valley bottoms.

  20. Regional early flood warning system: design and implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, L. C.; Yang, S. N.; Kuo, C. L.; Wang, Y. F.

    2017-12-01

    This study proposes a prototype of the regional early flood inundation warning system in Tainan City, Taiwan. The AI technology is used to forecast multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The computing time is only few seconds that leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting. A database is built to organize data and information for building real-time forecasting models, maintaining the relations of forecasted points, and displaying forecasted results, while real-time data acquisition is another key task where the model requires immediately accessing rain gauge information to provide forecast services. All programs related database are constructed in Microsoft SQL Server by using Visual C# to extracting real-time hydrological data, managing data, storing the forecasted data and providing the information to the visual map-based display. The regional early flood inundation warning system use the up-to-date Web technologies driven by the database and real-time data acquisition to display the on-line forecasting flood inundation depths in the study area. The friendly interface includes on-line sequentially showing inundation area by Google Map, maximum inundation depth and its location, and providing KMZ file download of the results which can be watched on Google Earth. The developed system can provide all the relevant information and on-line forecast results that helps city authorities to make decisions during typhoon events and make actions to mitigate the losses.

  1. Flood Hazard Recurrence Frequencies for the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.F.

    2001-01-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) regulations outline the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this report is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines, as a function of water elevation, the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves provide basis to avoid unnecessary facility upgrades, to establish appropriate design criteria for new facilities, and to develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods. A method based on precipitation, basin runoff and open channel hydraulics was developed to determine probabilistic flood hazard curves for the Savannah River Site. The calculated flood hazard curves show that the probabilities of flooding existing SRS major facilities are significantly less than 1.E-05 per year

  2. Frequency of posttraumatic stress disorder (ptsd) among flood affected individuals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aslam, N.; Kamal, A.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the relationship of exposure to a traumatic event and the subsequent onset of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) in the population exposed to floods in Pakistan. Study Design: Cross sectional study. Place and duration of study: Individuals exposed to the 2010 flood in district Shadadkot, Sindh from April 2012 to September 2012. Methodology: Sample of the study comprised of 101 individuals from the flood affected areas in Pakistan. Age range of the participants was 15 to 50 years (M=27.73, SD = 7.19), with participation of both males and females. PTSD was assessed by using the self report measure, impact of Event Scale (IES) and the subjective and objective experience to flood was assessed through Flood Related Exposure Scale (FRES) devised by the authors. Results: The prevalence rate of PTSD among the flood affected population was 35.5%. Trauma had significant positive relation with objective flood exposure and subjective flood exposure (r=.27 and r =.38) respectively. Inverse relation appeared between age and PTSD (r=-.20). PTSD was higher among females as compared to males. Conclusion: Understanding the prevalence of PTSD helps the mental health professionals in devising intervention strategies. A longitudinal study design is recommended that may be developed for better understanding of trajectories of trauma response across time span. Our findings may help identify populations at risk for treatment research. (author)

  3. Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai

    2018-05-01

    Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

  4. The Sensetivity of Flood Frequency Analysis on Record Length in Continuous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, L.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Anagnostou, E. N.

    2017-12-01

    In flood frequency analysis (FFA), sufficiently long data series are important to get more reliable results. Compared to return periods of interest, at-site FFA usually needs large data sets. Generally, the precision of at site estimators and time-sampling errors are associated with the length of a gauged record. In this work, we quantify the difference with various record lengths. we use generalized extreme value (GEV) and Log Pearson type III (LP3), two traditional methods on annual maximum stream flows to undertake FFA, and propose quantitative ways, relative difference in median and interquartile range (IQR) to compare the flood frequency performances on different record length from selected 350 USGS gauges, which have more than 70 years record length in Continuous United States. Also, we group those gauges into different regions separately based on hydrological unit map and discuss the geometry impacts. The results indicate that long record length can avoid imposing an upper limit on the degree of sophistication. Working with relatively longer record length may lead accurate results than working with shorter record length. Furthermore, the influence of hydrologic unites for the watershed boundary dataset on those gauges also be presented. The California region is the most sensitive to record length, while gauges in the east perform steady.

  5. Evolving flood patterns in a Mediterranean region (1301-2012) and climatic factors - the case of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrera-Escoda, A.; Llasat, M. C.

    2015-01-01

    Data on flood occurrence and flood impacts for the last seven centuries in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula have been analysed in order to characterise long-term trends, anomalous periods and their relationship with different climatic factors such as precipitation, general circulation and solar activity. Catastrophic floods (those that produce complete or partial destruction of infrastructure close to the river, and major damages in the overflowed area, including some zones away from the channels) do not present a statistically significant trend, whereas extraordinary floods (the channel is overflowed and some punctual severe damages can be produced in the infrastructures placed in the rivercourse or near it, but usually damages are slight) have seen a significant rise, especially from 1850 on, and were responsible for the total increase in flooding in the region. This rise can be mainly attributed to small coastal catchments, which have experienced a marked increase in developed land and population, resulting in changes in land use and greater vulnerability. Changes in precipitation alone cannot explain the variation in flood patterns, although a certain increase was shown in late summer-early autumn, when extraordinary floods are most frequently recorded. The relationship between the North Atlantic circulation and floods is not as strong, due to the important role of mesoscale factors in heavy precipitation in the northwest of the Mediterranean region. However, it can explain the variance to some extent, mainly in relation to the catastrophic floods experienced during the autumn. Solar activity has some impact on changes in catastrophic floods, with cycles related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the Gleissberg solar cycle. In addition, anomalous periods of high flood frequency in autumn generally occurred during periods of increased solar activity. The physical influence of the latter in general circulation patterns, the high troposphere and the

  6. Flood susceptibility analysis through remote sensing, GIS and frequency ratio model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanta, Sailesh; Pal, Dilip Kumar; Palsamanta, Babita

    2018-05-01

    Papua New Guinea (PNG) is saddled with frequent natural disasters like earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, drought, flood etc. Flood, as a hydrological disaster to humankind's niche brings about a powerful and often sudden, pernicious change in the surface distribution of water on land, while the benevolence of flood manifests in restoring the health of the thalweg from excessive siltation by redistributing the fertile sediments on the riverine floodplains. In respect to social, economic and environmental perspective, flood is one of the most devastating disasters in PNG. This research was conducted to investigate the usefulness of remote sensing, geographic information system and the frequency ratio (FR) for flood susceptibility mapping. FR model was used to handle different independent variables via weighted-based bivariate probability values to generate a plausible flood susceptibility map. This study was conducted in the Markham riverine precinct under Morobe province in PNG. A historical flood inventory database of PNG resource information system (PNGRIS) was used to generate 143 flood locations based on "create fishnet" analysis. 100 (70%) flood sample locations were selected randomly for model building. Ten independent variables, namely land use/land cover, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, surface runoff, landform, lithology, distance from the main river, soil texture and soil drainage were used into the FR model for flood vulnerability analysis. Finally, the database was developed for areas vulnerable to flood. The result demonstrated a span of FR values ranging from 2.66 (least flood prone) to 19.02 (most flood prone) for the study area. The developed database was reclassified into five (5) flood vulnerability zones segmenting on the FR values, namely very low (less that 5.0), low (5.0-7.5), moderate (7.5-10.0), high (10.0-12.5) and very high susceptibility (more than 12.5). The result indicated that about 19.4% land area as `very high

  7. Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, J.; Francés, F.

    2013-08-01

    Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS). Two approaches to non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation) and a reservoir index that is proposed in this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies. The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time.

  8. Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. López

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS. Two approaches to non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation and a reservoir index that is proposed in this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies. The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time.

  9. Revising time series of the Elbe river discharge for flood frequency determination at gauge Dresden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bartl

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The German research programme RIsk MAnagment of eXtreme flood events has accomplished the improvement of regional hazard assessment for the large rivers in Germany. Here we focused on the Elbe river at its gauge Dresden, which belongs to the oldest gauges in Europe with officially available daily discharge time series beginning on 1 January 1890. The project on the one hand aimed to extend and to revise the existing time series, and on the other hand to examine the variability of the Elbe river discharge conditions on a greater time scale. Therefore one major task were the historical searches and the examination of the retrieved documents and the contained information. After analysing this information the development of the river course and the discharge conditions were discussed. Using the provided knowledge, in an other subproject, a historical hydraulic model was established. Its results then again were used here. A further purpose was the determining of flood frequency based on all pre-processed data. The obtained knowledge about historical changes was also used to get an idea about possible future variations under climate change conditions. Especially variations in the runoff characteristic of the Elbe river over the course of the year were analysed. It succeeded to obtain a much longer discharge time series which contain fewer errors and uncertainties. Hence an optimized regional hazard assessment was realised.

  10. Revising time series of the Elbe river discharge for flood frequency determination at gauge Dresden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartl, S.; Schümberg, S.; Deutsch, M.

    2009-11-01

    The German research programme RIsk MAnagment of eXtreme flood events has accomplished the improvement of regional hazard assessment for the large rivers in Germany. Here we focused on the Elbe river at its gauge Dresden, which belongs to the oldest gauges in Europe with officially available daily discharge time series beginning on 1 January 1890. The project on the one hand aimed to extend and to revise the existing time series, and on the other hand to examine the variability of the Elbe river discharge conditions on a greater time scale. Therefore one major task were the historical searches and the examination of the retrieved documents and the contained information. After analysing this information the development of the river course and the discharge conditions were discussed. Using the provided knowledge, in an other subproject, a historical hydraulic model was established. Its results then again were used here. A further purpose was the determining of flood frequency based on all pre-processed data. The obtained knowledge about historical changes was also used to get an idea about possible future variations under climate change conditions. Especially variations in the runoff characteristic of the Elbe river over the course of the year were analysed. It succeeded to obtain a much longer discharge time series which contain fewer errors and uncertainties. Hence an optimized regional hazard assessment was realised.

  11. Impact of climate change on flood frequency and intensity in the kabul river basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Dahri, Zakir Hussain; Querner, Erik P.; Khan, Asif; Hofstra, Nynke

    2018-01-01

    Devastating floods adversely affect human life and infrastructure. Various regions of the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas receive intense monsoon rainfall, which, together with snow and glacier melt, produce intense floods. The Kabul river basin originates from the Hindukush Mountains and is

  12. Swift delineation of flood-prone areas over large European regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavares da Costa, Ricardo; Castellarin, Attilio; Manfreda, Salvatore; Samela, Caterina; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Mazzoli, Paolo; Luzzi, Valerio; Bagli, Stefano

    2017-04-01

    According to the European Environment Agency (EEA Report No 1/2016), a significant share of the European population is estimated to be living on or near a floodplain, with Italy having the highest population density in flood-prone areas among the countries analysed. This tendency, tied with event frequency and magnitude (e.g.: the 24/11/2016 floods in Italy) and the fact that river floods may occur at large scales and at a transboundary level, where data is often sparse, presents a challenge in flood-risk management. The availability of consistent flood hazard and risk maps during prevention, preparedness, response and recovery phases are a valuable and important step forward in improving the effectiveness, efficiency and robustness of evidence-based decision making. The present work aims at testing and discussing the usefulness of pattern recognition techniques based on geomorphologic indices (Manfreda et al., J. Hydrol. Eng., 2011, Degiorgis et al., J Hydrol., 2012, Samela et al., J. Hydrol. Eng., 2015) for the simplified mapping of river flood-prone areas at large scales. The techniques are applied to 25m Digital Elevation Models (DEM) of the Danube, Po and Severn river watersheds, obtained from the Copernicus data and information funded by the European Union - EU-DEM layers. Results are compared to the Pan-European flood hazard maps derived by Alfieri et al. (Hydrol. Proc., 2013) using a set of distributed hydrological (LISFLOOD, van der Knijff et al., Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 2010, employed within the European Flood Awareness System, www.efas.eu) and hydraulic models (LISFLOOD-FP, Bates and De Roo, J. Hydrol., 2000). Our study presents different calibration and cross-validation exercises of the DEM-based mapping algorithms to assess to which extent, and with which accuracy, they can be reproduced over different regions of Europe. This work is being developed under the System-Risk project (www.system-risk.eu) that received funding from the European Union

  13. Real-time updating of the flood frequency distribution through data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Cristina; Montanari, Alberto; Polo, María-José

    2017-07-01

    We explore the memory properties of catchments for predicting the likelihood of floods based on observations of average flows in pre-flood seasons. Our approach assumes that flood formation is driven by the superimposition of short- and long-term perturbations. The former is given by the short-term meteorological forcing leading to infiltration and/or saturation excess, while the latter is originated by higher-than-usual storage in the catchment. To exploit the above sensitivity to long-term perturbations, a meta-Gaussian model and a data assimilation approach are implemented for updating the flood frequency distribution a season in advance. Accordingly, the peak flow in the flood season is predicted in probabilistic terms by exploiting its dependence on the average flow in the antecedent seasons. We focus on the Po River at Pontelagoscuro and the Danube River at Bratislava. We found that the shape of the flood frequency distribution is noticeably impacted by higher-than-usual flows occurring up to several months earlier. The proposed technique may allow one to reduce the uncertainty associated with the estimation of flood frequency.

  14. Flood Frequency Analysis Under Non-stationarity Conditions: the Case of Southern Brazilian Hydroelectric Power Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartiko, Daniel; Chaffe, Pedro; Bonumá, Nadia

    2017-04-01

    Floods may be strongly affected by climate, land-use, land-cover and water infrastructure changes. However, it is common to model this process as stationary. This approach has been questioned, especially when it involves estimate of the frequency and magnitude of extreme events for designing and maintaining hydraulic structures, as those responsible for flood control and dams safety. Brazil is the third largest producer of hydroelectricity in the world and many of the country's dams are located in the Southern Region. So, it seems appropriate to investigate the presence of non-stationarity in the affluence in these plants. In our study, we used historical flood data from the Brazilian National Grid Operator (ONS) to explore trends in annual maxima in river flow of the 38 main rivers flowing to Southern Brazilian reservoirs (records range from 43 to 84 years). In the analysis, we assumed a two-parameter log-normal distribution a linear regression model was applied in order to allow for the mean to vary with time. We computed recurrence reduction factors to characterize changes in the return period of an initially estimated 100 year-flood by a log-normal stationary model. To evaluate whether or not a particular site exhibits positive trend, we only considered data series with linear regression slope coefficients that exhibit significance levels (p<0,05). The significance level was calculated using the one-sided Student's test. The trend model residuals were analyzed using the Anderson-Darling normality test, the Durbin-Watson test for the independence and the Breusch-Pagan test for heteroscedasticity. Our results showed that 22 of the 38 data series analyzed have a significant positive trend. The trends were mainly in three large basins: Iguazu, Uruguay and Paranapanema, which suffered changes in land use and flow regularization in the last years. The calculated return period for the series that presented positive trend varied from 50 to 77 years for a 100 year-flood

  15. Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronica, G. T.; Candela, A.

    2007-12-01

    SummaryIn this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribution whose parameters have been estimated at regional scale for Sicily. The catchment response has been modelled by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, in a semi-distributed form, for the transformation of total rainfall to effective rainfall and simple form of IUH for the flood routing. Here, SCS-CN method is implemented in probabilistic form with respect to prior-to-storm conditions, allowing to relax the classical iso-frequency assumption between rainfall and peak flow. The procedure is tested on six practical case studies where synthetic FFC (flood frequency curve) were obtained starting from model variables distributions by simulating 5000 flood events combining 5000 values of total rainfall depth for the storm duration and AMC (antecedent moisture conditions) conditions. The application of this procedure showed how Monte Carlo simulation technique can reproduce the observed flood frequency curves with reasonable accuracy over a wide range of return periods using a simple and parsimonious approach, limited data input and without any calibration of the rainfall-runoff model.

  16. Flood frequency matters: Why climate change degrades deep-water quality of peri-alpine lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Gabriel; Wessels, Martin; Wüest, Alfred

    2016-09-01

    Sediment-laden riverine floods transport large quantities of dissolved oxygen into the receiving deep layers of lakes. Hence, the water quality of deep lakes is strongly influenced by the frequency of riverine floods. Although flood frequency reflects climate conditions, the effects of climate variability on the water quality of deep lakes is largely unknown. We quantified the effects of climate variability on the potential shifts in the flood regime of the Alpine Rhine, the main catchment of Lake Constance, and determined the intrusion depths of riverine density-driven underflows and the subsequent effects on water exchange rates in the lake. A simplified hydrodynamic underflow model was developed and validated with observed river inflow and underflow events. The model was implemented to estimate underflow statistics for different river inflow scenarios. Using this approach, we integrated present and possible future flood frequencies to underflow occurrences and intrusion depths in Lake Constance. The results indicate that more floods will increase the number of underflows and the intensity of deep-water renewal - and consequently will cause higher deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Vice versa, fewer floods weaken deep-water renewal and lead to lower deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Meanwhile, a change from glacial nival regime (present) to a nival pluvial regime (future) is expected to decrease deep-water renewal. While flood frequencies are not expected to change noticeably for the next decades, it is most likely that increased winter discharge and decreased summer discharge will reduce the number of deep density-driven underflows by 10% and favour shallower riverine interflows in the upper hypolimnion. The renewal in the deepest layers is expected to be reduced by nearly 27%. This study underlines potential consequences of climate change on the occurrence of deep river underflows and water residence times in deep lakes.

  17. CHANGING FLOOD FREQUENCY IN SCOTLAND: IMPLICATIONS FOR CHANNEL GEOMORPHOLOGY, ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Thompson, Fiona Hilary

    2017-01-01

    The effect of climate on the fluvial system has long been investigated due the significant impact it can have on a river’s hydrological regime and fluvial processes. In recent years this interest has increased as global changes in climate are expected to bring more frequent high magnitude flood events globally and to North West Europe in particular. Despite the knowledge that the frequency and magnitude of floods is to increase, less is known about the geomorphological implicat...

  18. Operational flood forecasting system of Umbria Region "Functional Centre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berni, N.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Ponziani, F.; Viterbo, A.

    2009-04-01

    The hydrometeorological alert office (called "Decentrate Functional Centre" - CFD) of Umbria Region, in central Italy, is the office that provides technical tools able to support decisions when significant flood/landslide events occur, furnishing 24h support for the whole duration of the emergency period, according to the national directive DPCM 27 February 2004 concerning the "Operating concepts for functional management of national and regional alert system during flooding and landslide events for civil protection activities purposes" that designs, within the Italian Civil Defence Emergency Management System, a network of 21 regional Functional Centres coordinated by a central office at the National Civil Protection Department in Rome. Due to its "linking" role between Civil Protection "real time" activities and environmental/planning "deferred time" ones, the Centre is in charge to acquire and collect both real time and quasi-static data: quantitative data from monitoring networks (hydrometeorological stations, meteo radar, ...), meteorological forecasting models output, Earth Observation data, hydraulic and hydrological simulation models, cartographic and thematic GIS data (vectorial and raster type), planning studies related to flooding areas mapping, dam managing plans during flood events, non instrumental information from direct control of "territorial presidium". A detailed procedure for the management of critical events was planned, also in order to define the different role of various authorities and institutions involved. Tiber River catchment, of which Umbria region represents the main upper-medium portion, includes also regional trans-boundary issues very important to cope with, especially for what concerns large dam behavior and management during heavy rainfall. The alert system is referred to 6 different warning areas in which the territory has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels according

  19. iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system

  20. Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods are common in the United States. Weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, hurricanes, or tsunamis can ... is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often have a dangerous ...

  1. Improving the flash flood frequency analysis applying dendrogeomorphological evidences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Ballesteros, J. A.; Bodoque, J. M.; Stoffel, M.; Bollschweiler, M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

    2009-09-01

    Flash floods are one of the natural hazards that cause major damages worldwide. Especially in Mediterranean areas they provoke high economic losses every year. In mountain areas with high stream gradients, floods events are characterized by extremely high flow and debris transport rates. Flash flood analysis in mountain areas presents specific scientific challenges. On one hand, there is a lack of information on precipitation and discharge due to a lack of spatially well distributed gauge stations with long records. On the other hand, gauge stations may not record correctly during extreme events when they are damaged or the discharge exceeds the recordable level. In this case, no systematic data allows improvement of the understanding of the spatial and temporal occurrence of the process. Since historic documentation is normally scarce or even completely missing in mountain areas, tree-ring analysis can provide an alternative approach. Flash floods may influence trees in different ways: (1) tilting of the stem through the unilateral pressure of the flowing mass or individual boulders; (2) root exposure through erosion of the banks; (3) injuries and scars caused by boulders and wood transported in the flow; (4) decapitation of the stem and resulting candelabra growth through the severe impact of boulders; (5) stem burial through deposition of material. The trees react to these disturbances with specific growth changes such as abrupt change of the yearly increment and anatomical changes like reaction wood or callus tissue. In this study, we sampled 90 cross sections and 265 increment cores of trees heavily affected by past flash floods in order to date past events and to reconstruct recurrence intervals in two torrent channels located in the Spanish Central System. The first study site is located along the Pelayo River, a torrent in natural conditions. Based on the external disturbances of trees and their geomorphological position, 114 Pinus pinaster (Ait

  2. RainyDay: An Online, Open-Source Tool for Physically-based Rainfall and Flood Frequency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, D.; Yu, G.; Holman, K. D.

    2017-12-01

    Flood frequency analysis in ungaged or changing watersheds typically requires rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves combined with hydrologic models. IDF curves only depict point-scale rainfall depth, while true rainstorms exhibit complex spatial and temporal structures. Floods result from these rainfall structures interacting with watershed features such as land cover, soils, and variable antecedent conditions as well as river channel processes. Thus, IDF curves are traditionally combined with a variety of "design storm" assumptions such as area reduction factors and idealized rainfall space-time distributions to translate rainfall depths into inputs that are suitable for flood hydrologic modeling. The impacts of such assumptions are relatively poorly understood. Meanwhile, modern precipitation estimates from gridded weather radar, grid-interpolated rain gages, satellites, and numerical weather models provide more realistic depictions of rainfall space-time structure. Usage of such datasets for rainfall and flood frequency analysis, however, are hindered by relatively short record lengths. We present RainyDay, an open-source stochastic storm transposition (SST) framework for generating large numbers of realistic rainfall "scenarios." SST "lengthens" the rainfall record by temporal resampling and geospatial transposition of observed storms to extract space-time information from regional gridded rainfall data. Relatively short (10-15 year) records of bias-corrected radar rainfall data are sufficient to estimate rainfall and flood events with much longer recurrence intervals including 100-year and 500-year events. We describe the SST methodology as implemented in RainyDay and compare rainfall IDF results from RainyDay to conventional estimates from NOAA Atlas 14. Then, we demonstrate some of the flood frequency analysis properties that are possible when RainyDay is integrated with a distributed hydrologic model, including robust estimation of flood

  3. The relationship between precipitation and insurance data for floods in a Mediterranean region (northeast Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortès, Maria; Turco, Marco; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Llasat, Maria Carmen

    2018-03-01

    Floods in the Mediterranean region are often surface water floods, in which intense precipitation is usually the main driver. Determining the link between the causes and impacts of floods can make it easier to calculate the level of flood risk. However, up until now, the limitations in quantitative observations for flood-related damages have been a major obstacle when attempting to analyse flood risk in the Mediterranean. Flood-related insurance damage claims for the last 20 years could provide a proxy for flood impact, and this information is now available in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia, in northeast Spain. This means a comprehensive analysis of the links between flood drivers and impacts is now possible. The objective of this paper is to develop and evaluate a methodology to estimate flood damages from heavy precipitation in a Mediterranean region. Results show that our model is able to simulate the probability of a damaging event as a function of precipitation. The relationship between precipitation and damage provides insights into flood risk in the Mediterranean and is also promising for supporting flood management strategies.

  4. A methodology for the assessment of flood hazards at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, the frequency of water-related disasters has increased and recent flood events in Europe (e.g. 2002 in Central Europe, 2007 in UK, 2010 in Italy) caused physical-environmental and socio-economic damages. Specifically, floods are the most threatening water-related disaster that affects humans, their lives and properties. Within the KULTURisk project (FP7) a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology is proposed to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The method is based on the KULTURisk framework and allows the identification and prioritization of targets (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) and areas at risk from floods in the considered region by comparing the baseline scenario (i.e. current state) with alternative scenarios (i.e. where different structural and/or non-structural measures are planned). The RRA methodology is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The final aim of RRA is to help decision-makers in examining the possible environmental risks associated with uncertain future flood hazards and in identifying which prevention scenario could be the most suitable one. The RRA methodology employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA functions) in order to integrate stakeholder preferences and experts judgments into the analysis. Moreover, Geographic Information Systems (GISs) are used to manage, process, analyze, and map data to facilitate the analysis and the information sharing with different experts and stakeholders. In order to characterize flood risks, the proposed methodology integrates the output of hydrodynamic models with the analysis of site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope of the territory, land cover

  5. Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarini, G.; Smith, J.A.; Serinaldi, F.; Bales, J.; Bates, P.D.; Krajewski, W.F.

    2009-01-01

    Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110 km2) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2 to a maximum of 5.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2 ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarini, Gabriele; Smith, James A.; Serinaldi, Francesco; Bales, Jerad; Bates, Paul D.; Krajewski, Witold F.

    2009-08-01

    Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110km) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1mskm to a maximum of 5.1mskm. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2mskm). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2mskm ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades.

  7. Inferring the flood frequency distribution for an ungauged basin using a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Moretti

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the peak river flow for ungauged river sections is a topical issue in applied hydrology. Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff models can be a useful tool to this end, since they are potentially able to simulate the river flow at any location of the watershed drainage network. However, it is not fully clear to what extent these models can provide reliable simulations over a wide range of spatial scales. This issue is investigated here by applying a spatially distributed, continuous simulation rainfall-runoff model to infer the flood frequency distribution of the Riarbero River. This is an ungauged mountain creek located in northern Italy, whose drainage area is 17 km2. The hydrological model is first calibrated by using a 1-year record of hourly meteorological data and river flows observed at the outlet of the 1294 km2 wide Secchia River basin, of which the Riarbero is a tributary. The model is then validated by performing a 100-year long simulation of synthetic river flow data, which allowed us to compare the simulated and observed flood frequency distributions at the Secchia River outlet and the internal cross river section of Cavola Bridge, where the basin area is 337 km2. Finally, another simulation of hourly river flows was performed by referring to the outlet of the Riarbero River, therefore allowing us to estimate the related flood frequency distribution. The results were validated by using estimates of peak river flow obtained by applying hydrological similarity principles and a regional method. The results show that the flood flow estimated through the application of the distributed model is consistent with the estimate provided by the regional procedure as well as the behaviors of the river banks. Conversely, the method based on hydrological similarity delivers an estimate that seems to be not as reliable. The analysis highlights interesting perspectives for the application of

  8. Flood Frequency Analysis of Future Climate Projections in the Cache Creek Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, I.; Trihn, T.; Ishida, K.; Jang, S.; Kavvas, E.; Kavvas, M. L.

    2014-12-01

    Effects of climate change on hydrologic flow regimes, particularly extreme events, necessitate modeling of future flows to best inform water resources management. Future flow projections may be modeled through the joint use of carbon emission scenarios, general circulation models and watershed models. This research effort ran 13 simulations for carbon emission scenarios (taken from the A1, A2 and B1 families) over the 21st century (2001-2100) for the Cache Creek watershed in Northern California. Atmospheric data from general circulation models, CCSM3 and ECHAM5, were dynamically downscaled to a 9 km resolution using MM5, a regional mesoscale model, before being input into the physically based watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model. Ensemble mean and standard deviation of simulated flows describe the expected hydrologic system response. Frequency histograms and cumulative distribution functions characterize the range of hydrologic responses that may occur. The modeled flow results comprise a dataset suitable for time series and frequency analysis allowing for more robust system characterization, including indices such as the 100 year flood return period. These results are significant for water quality management as the Cache Creek watershed is severely impacted by mercury pollution from historic mining activities. Extreme flow events control mercury fate and transport affecting the downstream water bodies of the Sacramento River and Sacramento- San Joaquin Delta which provide drinking water to over 25 million people.

  9. The use of a flood index to characterise flooding in the north-eastern region of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhattacharya B.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding in the Haor region in the north-east of Bangladesh is presented in this paper. A haor is a saucershaped depression, which is used during the dry period (Dec to mid-May for agriculture and as a fishery during the wet period (Jun-Nov. Pre-monsoon flooding till mid-May causes agricultural loss. The area is bordering India, and is fed by some flashy Indian catchments. The area is drained mainly by the Surma-Kushiyara river system. The terrain generally is flat and the flashy characteristics die out within a short distance from the border. Limited studies on the region, particularly with the help of numerical models, have been carried out in the past. Therefore, an objective of the current research was to set up numerical models capable of reasonably emulating the physical system. Such models could, for example, associate different gauges to the spatio-temporal variation of hydrodynamic variables and help in carrying out a systemic study on the flood propagation. A 1D2D model, with one-dimensional model for the rivers (based on MIKE 11 from DHI and a two-dimensional model for the haors (based on MIKE 21 from DHI were developed. In order to characterize flooding in the large area a flood index is proposed, which is computed based on the hydrograph characteristics such as the rising curve gradient, flood magnitude ratio and time to peak. The index was used in characterising flooding in the Haor region. In general, two groups of rivers were identified. The study enabled identifying the hot-spots in the study area with risks from flooding.

  10. Flood-frequency analyses from paleoflood investigations for Spring, Rapid, Boxelder, and Elk Creeks, Black Hills, western South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, Jim E.; Driscoll, Daniel G.; Stamm, John F.

    2011-01-01

    Flood-frequency analyses for the Black Hills area are important because of severe flooding of June 9-10, 1972, that was caused by a large mesoscale convective system and caused at least 238 deaths. Many 1972 peak flows are high outliers (by factors of 10 or more) in observed records that date to the early 1900s. An efficient means of reducing uncertainties for flood recurrence is to augment gaged records by using paleohydrologic techniques to determine ages and magnitudes of prior large floods (paleofloods). This report summarizes results of paleoflood investigations for Spring Creek, Rapid Creek (two reaches), Boxelder Creek (two subreaches), and Elk Creek. Stratigraphic records and resulting long-term flood chronologies, locally extending more than 2,000 years, were combined with observed and adjusted peak-flow values (gaged records) and historical flood information to derive flood-frequency estimates for the six study reaches. Results indicate that (1) floods as large as and even substantially larger than 1972 have affected most of the study reaches, and (2) incorporation of the paleohydrologic information substantially reduced uncertainties in estimating flood recurrence. Canyons within outcrops of Paleozoic rocks along the eastern flanks of the Black Hills provided excellent environments for (1) deposition and preservation of stratigraphic sequences of late-Holocene flood deposits, primarily in protected slack-water settings flanking the streams; and (2) hydraulic analyses for determination of associated flow magnitudes. The bedrock canyons ensure long-term stability of channel and valley geometry, thereby increasing confidence in hydraulic computations of ancient floods from modern channel geometry. Stratigraphic records of flood sequences, in combination with deposit dating by radiocarbon, optically stimulated luminescence, and cesium-137, provided paleoflood chronologies for 29 individual study sites. Flow magnitudes were estimated from elevations of flood

  11. Estimation of initiating event frequency for external flood events by extreme value theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chowdhury, Sourajyoti; Ganguly, Rimpi; Hari, Vibha

    2017-01-01

    External flood is an important common cause initiating event in nuclear power plants (NPPs). It may potentially lead to severe core damage (SCD) by first causing the failure of the systems required for maintaining the heat sinks and then by contributing to failures of engineered systems designed to mitigate such failures. The sample NPP taken here is twin 220 MWe Indian standard pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) situated inland. A comprehensive in-house Level-1 internal event PSA for full power had already been performed. External flood assessment was further conducted in area of external hazard risk assessment in response to post-Fukushima measures taken in nuclear industries. The present paper describes the methodology to calculate initiating event (IE) frequency for external flood events for the sample inland Indian NPP. General extreme value (GEV) theory based on maximum likelihood method (MLM) and order statistics approach (OSA) is used to analyse the rainfall data for the site. Thousand-year return level and necessary return periods for extreme rainfall are evaluated. These results along with plant-specific topographical calculations quantitatively establish that external flooding resulting from upstream dam break, river flooding and heavy rainfall (flash flood) would be unlikely for the sample NPP in consideration.

  12. On the Use of Global Flood Forecasts and Satellite-Derived Inundation Maps for Flood Monitoring in Data-Sparse Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Revilla-Romero

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Early flood warning and real-time monitoring systems play a key role in flood risk reduction and disaster response decisions. Global-scale flood forecasting and satellite-based flood detection systems are currently operating, however their reliability for decision-making applications needs to be assessed. In this study, we performed comparative evaluations of several operational global flood forecasting and flood detection systems, using 10 major flood events recorded over 2012–2014. Specifically, we evaluated the spatial extent and temporal characteristics of flood detections from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS and the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS. Furthermore, we compared the GFDS flood maps with those from NASA’s two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensors. Results reveal that: (1 general agreement was found between the GFDS and MODIS flood detection systems, (2 large differences exist in the spatio-temporal characteristics of the GFDS detections and GloFAS forecasts, and (3 the quantitative validation of global flood disasters in data-sparse regions is highly challenging. Overall, satellite remote sensing provides useful near real-time flood information that can be useful for risk management. We highlight the known limitations of global flood detection and forecasting systems, and propose ways forward to improve the reliability of large-scale flood monitoring tools.

  13. Regional Frequency and Uncertainty Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y.; Li, H. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Increased frequency of extreme precipitations, especially those with multiday durations, are responsible for recent urban floods and associated significant losses of lives and infrastructures in Bangladesh. Reliable and routinely updated estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such extreme precipitation events are thus important for developing up-to-date hydraulic structures and stormwater drainage system that can effectively minimize future risk from similar events. In this study, we have updated the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for Bangladesh using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2010 and quantified associated uncertainties. Regional frequency analysis based on L-moments is applied on 1-day, 2-day and 5-day annual maximum precipitation series due to its advantages over at-site estimation. The regional frequency approach pools the information from climatologically similar sites to make reliable estimates of quantiles given that the pooling group is homogeneous and of reasonable size. We have used Region of influence (ROI) approach along with homogeneity measure based on L-moments to identify the homogenous pooling groups for each site. Five 3-parameter distributions (i.e., Generalized Logistic, Generalized Extreme value, Generalized Normal, Pearson Type Three, and Generalized Pareto) are used for a thorough selection of appropriate models that fit the sample data. Uncertainties related to the selection of the distributions and historical data are quantified using the Bayesian Model Averaging and Balanced Bootstrap approaches respectively. The results from this study can be used to update the current design and management of hydraulic structures as well as in exploring spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation and associated risk.

  14. Peak discharge, flood frequency, and peak stage of floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohn, Michael S.; Stevens, Michael R.; Mommandi, Amanullah; Khan, Aziz R.

    2017-12-14

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Big Cottonwood Creek site”), on August 23, 2016, and on Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Fountain Creek site”), on August 29, 2016. A one-dimensional hydraulic model was used to estimate the peak discharge. To define the flood frequency of each flood, peak-streamflow regional-regression equations or statistical analyses of USGS streamgage records were used to estimate annual exceedance probability of the peak discharge. A survey of the high-water mark profile was used to determine the peak stage, and the limitations and accuracy of each component also are presented in this report. Collection and computation of flood data, such as peak discharge, annual exceedance probability, and peak stage at structures critical to Colorado’s infrastructure are an important addition to the flood data collected annually by the USGS.The peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site was 917 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater). The peak discharge of the August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site was 5,970 ft3/s with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater).The August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.01 (return period greater than the 100-year flood) and had an annual exceedance probability of greater than 0.005 (return period less than the 200-year flood). The August 23, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return

  15. Flood hazard zoning in Yasooj region, Iran, using GIS and multi-criteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omid Rahmati

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Flood is considered to be the most common natural disaster worldwide during the last decades. Flood hazard potential mapping is required for management and mitigation of flood. The present research was aimed to assess the efficiency of analytical hierarchical process (AHP to identify potential flood hazard zones by comparing with the results of a hydraulic model. Initially, four parameters via distance to river, land use, elevation and land slope were used in some part of the Yasooj River, Iran. In order to determine the weight of each effective factor, questionnaires of comparison ratings on the Saaty's scale were prepared and distributed to eight experts. The normalized weights of criteria/parameters were determined based on Saaty's nine-point scale and its importance in specifying flood hazard potential zones using the AHP and eigenvector methods. The set of criteria were integrated by weighted linear combination method using ArcGIS 10.2 software to generate flood hazard prediction map. The inundation simulation (extent and depth of flood was conducted using hydrodynamic program HEC-RAS for 50- and 100-year interval floods. The validation of the flood hazard prediction map was conducted based on flood extent and depth maps. The results showed that the AHP technique is promising of making accurate and reliable prediction for flood extent. Therefore, the AHP and geographic information system (GIS techniques are suggested for assessment of the flood hazard potential, specifically in no-data regions.

  16. Local and regional estimation of floods in the Timis and Bega hydrographic basins: application of converging QDF model concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mic, Rodica; Gaida, Gilles

    2004-01-01

    A flow-duration-frequency regionalisation is carried out on the Timis and Bega rivers sub-catchments in the west of Romania. This regionalisation concerns 28 sub-catchments having about thirty years of stream flow measurements (daily flow, instantaneous flood peaks and hydrographs). This work about the floods regionalisation is realized in the framework of the European project Riverlife. The regional model will allow defining the hydrographs of project necessary for the hydraulic modelling. This hydraulic project is necessary in order to protect Timisoara - city against the floods. The method uses the hypotheses of the converging QdF model and adapts the index flood method for obtaining a regional dimensionless distribution. For long return periods, this approach uses the GRADEX method, which extrapolates discharge distributions according to the rainfall distributions. The dimensionless regional QdF model needs two local descriptors of target site to be denormed: QIXA10 and Δ: the annual maximum instantaneous flow with a 10% probability to be exceeded (the 10-year peak flood) and a characteristic duration, respectively. For these both variables, the relations obtained by regression are presented, involving morphologic and climatic basin characteristics.(Author)

  17. Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

    2014-01-01

    Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. In order to increase the number of streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) available for analysis, expand the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across State boundaries, and build on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural U.S Geological Survey streamgages in the Southeast United States, a multistate approach was used to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The at-site flood-frequency analysis of annual peak-flow data for urban and small, rural streams (through September 30, 2011) included 116 urban streamgages and 32 small, rural streamgages, defined in this report as basins draining less than 1 square mile. The regional regression analysis included annual peak-flow data from an additional 338 rural streamgages previously included in U.S. Geological Survey flood-frequency reports and 2 additional rural streamgages in North Carolina that were not included in the previous Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation for a total of 488 streamgages included in the urban and small, rural regression analysis. The at-site flood-frequency analyses for the urban and small, rural streamgages included the expected moments algorithm, which is a modification of the Bulletin 17B log-Pearson type III method for fitting the statistical distribution to the logarithms of the annual peak flows. Where applicable, the flood-frequency analysis also included low-outlier and historic information. Additionally, the application of a generalized Grubbs-Becks test allowed for the

  18. The pattern of spatial flood disaster region in DKI Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambunan, M. P.

    2017-02-01

    The study of disaster flood area was conducted in DKI Jakarta Province, Indonesia. The aim of this research is: to study the spatial distribution of potential and actual of flood area The flood was studied from the geographic point of view using spatial approach, while the study of the location, the distribution, the depth and the duration of flooding was conducted using geomorphologic approach and emphasize on the detailed landform unit as analysis unit. In this study the landforms in DKI Jakarta have been a diversity, as well as spatial and temporal pattern of the actual and potential flood area. Landform at DKI Jakarta has been largely used as built up area for settlement and it facilities, thus affecting the distribution pattern of flooding area. The collection of the physical condition of landform in DKI Jakarta data prone were conducted through interpretation of the topographic map / RBI map and geological map. The flood data were obtained by survey and secondary data from Kimpraswil (Public Work) of DKI Jakarta Province for 3 years (1996, 2002, and 2007). Data of rainfall were obtained from BMKG and land use data were obtained from BPN DKI Jakarta. The analysis of the causal factors and distribution of flooding was made spatially and temporally using geographic information system. This study used survey method with a pragmatic approach. In this study landform as result from the analytical survey was settlement land use as result the synthetic survey. The primary data consist of landform, and the flood characteristic obtained by survey. The samples were using purposive sampling. Landform map was composed by relief, structure and material stone, and process data Landform map was overlay with flood map the flood prone area in DKI Jakarta Province in scale 1:50,000 to show. Descriptive analysis was used the spatial distribute of the flood prone area. The result of the study show that actual of flood prone area in the north, west and east of Jakarta lowland both

  19. Continuous rainfall simulation for regional flood risk assessment - application in the Austrian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, Jose Luis; Nester, Thomas; Komma, Jürgen; Blöschl, Günter

    2017-04-01

    Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of the observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks. Furthermore, the replication of the observed rainfall spatial and temporal correlations allows to model important other hydrological features like antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events. In this work, we present an application in the Tirol region (Austrian alps) of a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is modeled on a station basis as a mutivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space, and then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space. For the sake of simplicity, the parameters of the Gamma distributions are assumed to vary monthly according to a sinusoidal function, and are calibrated trying to simultaneously reproduce i) mean annual rainfall, ii) mean daily rainfall amounts, iii) standard deviations of daily rainfall amounts, and iv) 24-hours intensity duration frequency curve. The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the intensity-duration-frequency curves aggregated at different spatial and temporal scales reproduce the measured ones. Bardossy, A., and E. J. Plate (1992), Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28(5), 1247-1259, doi:10.1029/91WR02589.

  20. Climate-informed flood frequency analysis based on Bayesian theory and teleconnection for the Three Gorges Dam (TGD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DONG, Q.; Zhang, X.; Lall, U.; Sang, Y. F.; Xie, P.

    2017-12-01

    With the current global climate changing and human activities intensifying, the uncertainties and danger of floods increased significantly. However, the current flood frequency analysis is still based on the stationary assumption. This assumption not only limits the benefits of the water conservancy projects, but also brings hazard because it ignores the risk of flooding under climate change. In this paper, we relax the stationary hypothesis in the flood frequency analysis model based on the teleconnection and use the intrinsic relation of flood elements to improve the annual flood frequency results by Bayesian inference approaches. Daily discharges of the the Three Gorges Dam(TGD) in 1953-2013 years are used as an example. Firstly, according to the linear correlation between the climate indices and the distribution parameters, the prior distributions of peak and volume are established with the selected large scale climate predictors. After that, by using the copula function and predictands, the conditional probability function of peak and volume is obtained. Then, the Bayesian theory links the prior distributions and conditional distributions and get the posterior distributions. We compare the difference under different prior distributions and find the optimal flood frequency distribution model. Finally, we discuss the impact of dynamic flood frequency analysis on the plan and management of hydraulic engineering. The results show that compared with the prior probability, the posterior probability considering the correlation of the flood elements is more accurate and the uncertainty is smaller. And the dynamic flood frequency model has a great impact on the management of the existing hydraulic engineering, which can improve the engineering operation benefit and reducing its flood risk, but it nearly didn't influence the plan of hydraulic engineering. The study of this paper is helpful to the dynamic flood risk management of TGD, and provide reference for the

  1. Continuous hydrologic simulation and flood-frequency, hydraulic, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed, Kane County, Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soong, David T.; Straub, Timothy D.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.

    2006-01-01

    Results of hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains range from approximately 25 acres in the tributary F watershed (a headwater subbasin at the northeastern corner of the watershed) to almost 1,800 acres in Blackberry Creek main stem. Based on 1996 land-cover data, most of the land in the 100-year and 500-year flood plains was cropland, forested and wooded land, and grassland. A relatively small percentage of urban land was in the flood plains. The Blackberry Creek watershed has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. The population and urbanized lands in the watershed are projected to double from the 1990 condition by 2020. Recently, flood-induced damage has occurred more frequently in urbanized areas of the watershed. There are concerns about the effect of urbanization on flood peaks and volumes, future flood-mitigation plans, and potential effects on the water quality and stream habitats. This report describes the procedures used in developing the hydrologic models, estimating the flood-peak discharge magnitudes and recurrence intervals for flood-hazard analysis, developing the hydraulic model, and the results of the analysis in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to perform the simulation of continuous water movements through various patterns of land uses in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and to determine the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using high water marks and observed inundation maps for the July 17-18, 1996, flood event. Digital

  2. Flash Flood Hazard Susceptibility Mapping Using Frequency Ratio and Statistical Index Methods in Coalmine Subsidence Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Cao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on producing flash flood hazard susceptibility maps (FFHSM using frequency ratio (FR and statistical index (SI models in the Xiqu Gully (XQG of Beijing, China. First, a total of 85 flash flood hazard locations (n = 85 were surveyed in the field and plotted using geographic information system (GIS software. Based on the flash flood hazard locations, a flood hazard inventory map was built. Seventy percent (n = 60 of the flooding hazard locations were randomly selected for building the models. The remaining 30% (n = 25 of the flooded hazard locations were used for validation. Considering that the XQG used to be a coal mining area, coalmine caves and subsidence caused by coal mining exist in this catchment, as well as many ground fissures. Thus, this study took the subsidence risk level into consideration for FFHSM. The ten conditioning parameters were elevation, slope, curvature, land use, geology, soil texture, subsidence risk area, stream power index (SPI, topographic wetness index (TWI, and short-term heavy rain. This study also tested different classification schemes for the values for each conditional parameter and checked their impacts on the results. The accuracy of the FFHSM was validated using area under the curve (AUC analysis. Classification accuracies were 86.61%, 83.35%, and 78.52% using frequency ratio (FR-natural breaks, statistical index (SI-natural breaks and FR-manual classification schemes, respectively. Associated prediction accuracies were 83.69%, 81.22%, and 74.23%, respectively. It was found that FR modeling using a natural breaks classification method was more appropriate for generating FFHSM for the Xiqu Gully.

  3. Recent flood lavas in the Elysium region of Mars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plescia, J.B.

    1990-01-01

    A volcanic origin is presently suggested for the Cerberus Formation region of smooth plains in the southeastern Elysium region of Mars, on the basis of its surface morphology, lobate edges, vents, and an embayment relation of the unit with adjacent, older units. The low viscosity lavas that filled a topographic depression in southeastern Elysium subsequently flowed into western Amazonic Planitia via channels formed by an earlier fluvial episode. A young, upper Amazonian dating is indicated by crater frequencies and stratigraphic relations, implying that large-scale eruptions of low-viscosity lava were still possible late in Martian history. 34 refs

  4. Application of HEC-RAS for flood forecasting in perched river-A case study of hilly region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Pingping; Wang, Shuqian; Gan, Hong; Liu, Bin; Jia, Ling

    2017-04-01

    Flooding in small and medium rivers are seriously threatening the safety of human beings’ life and property. The simulation forecasting of the river flood and bank risk in hilly region has gradually become a hotspot. At present, there are few studies on the simulation of hilly perched river, especially in the case of lacking section flow data. And the method of how to determine the position of the levee breach along the river bank is not much enough. Based on the characteristics of the sections in hilly perched river, an attempt is applied in this paper which establishes the correlation between the flow profile computed by HEC-RAS model and the river bank. A hilly perched river in Lingshi County, Shanxi Province of China, is taken as the study object, the levee breach positions along the bank are simulated under four different design storm. The results show that the flood control standard of upper reach is high, which can withstand the design storm of 100 years. The current standard of lower reach is low, which is the flooding channel with high frequency. As the standard of current channel between the 2rd and the 11th section is low, levee along that channel of the river bank is considered to be heighten and reinforced. The study results can provide some technical support for flood proofing in hilly region and some reference for the reinforcement of river bank.

  5. Flood Frequency Analysis For Partial Duration Series In Ganjiang River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    zhangli, Sun; xiufang, Zhu; yaozhong, Pan

    2016-04-01

    Accurate estimation of flood frequency is key to effective, nationwide flood damage abatement programs. The partial duration series (PDS) method is widely used in hydrologic studies because it considers all events above a certain threshold level as compared to the annual maximum series (AMS) method, which considers only the annual maximum value. However, the PDS has a drawback in that it is difficult to define the thresholds and maintain an independent and identical distribution of the partial duration time series; this drawback is discussed in this paper. The Ganjiang River is the seventh largest tributary of the Yangtze River, the longest river in China. The Ganjiang River covers a drainage area of 81,258 km2 at the Wanzhou hydrologic station as the basin outlet. In this work, 56 years of daily flow data (1954-2009) from the Wanzhou station were used to analyze flood frequency, and the Pearson-III model was employed as the hydrologic probability distribution. Generally, three tasks were accomplished: (1) the threshold of PDS by percentile rank of daily runoff was obtained; (2) trend analysis of the flow series was conducted using PDS; and (3) flood frequency analysis was conducted for partial duration flow series. The results showed a slight upward trend of the annual runoff in the Ganjiang River basin. The maximum flow with a 0.01 exceedance probability (corresponding to a 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) was 20,000 m3/s, while that with a 0.1 exceedance probability was 15,000 m3/s. These results will serve as a guide to hydrological engineering planning, design, and management for policymakers and decision makers associated with hydrology.

  6. Techniques for estimating flood-depth frequency relations for streams in West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, J.B.

    1987-01-01

    Multiple regression analyses are applied to data from 119 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow stations to develop equations that estimate baseline depth (depth of 50% flow duration) and 100-yr flood depth on unregulated streams in West Virginia. Drainage basin characteristics determined from the 100-yr flood depth analysis were used to develop 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 500-yr regional flood depth equations. Two regions with distinct baseline depth equations and three regions with distinct flood depth equations are delineated. Drainage area is the most significant independent variable found in the central and northern areas of the state where mean basin elevation also is significant. The equations are applicable to any unregulated site in West Virginia where values of independent variables are within the range evaluated for the region. Examples of inapplicable sites include those in reaches below dams, within and directly upstream from bridge or culvert constrictions, within encroached reaches, in karst areas, and where streams flow through lakes or swamps. (Author 's abstract)

  7. Floods in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

  8. Estimating flood magnitude and frequency at gaged and ungaged sites on streams in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada, based on data through water year 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Janet H.; Barth, Nancy A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Ourso, Robert T.

    2016-03-16

    Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are needed across Alaska for engineering design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, flood-plain management, and other water-resource purposes. This report updates methods for estimating flood magnitude and frequency in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2012 were compiled from 387 streamgages on unregulated streams with at least 10 years of record. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for each streamgage using the Expected Moments Algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak flows. A multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to identify potentially influential low floods in the time series of peak flows for censoring in the flood frequency analysis.For two new regional skew areas, flood-frequency estimates using station skew were computed for stations with at least 25 years of record for use in a Bayesian least-squares regression analysis to determine a regional skew value. The consideration of basin characteristics as explanatory variables for regional skew resulted in improvements in precision too small to warrant the additional model complexity, and a constant model was adopted. Regional Skew Area 1 in eastern-central Alaska had a regional skew of 0.54 and an average variance of prediction of 0.45, corresponding to an effective record length of 22 years. Regional Skew Area 2, encompassing coastal areas bordering the Gulf of Alaska, had a regional skew of 0.18 and an average variance of prediction of 0.12, corresponding to an effective record length of 59 years. Station flood-frequency estimates for study sites in regional skew areas were then recomputed using a weighted skew incorporating the station skew and regional skew. In a new regional skew exclusion area outside the regional skew areas, the density of long-record streamgages was too sparse for regional analysis and station skew was used

  9. Flood frequency estimation by national-scale continuous hydrological simulations: an application in Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria; Reynard, Nick

    2017-04-01

    Estimation of peak discharge for an assigned return period is a crucial issue in engineering hydrology. It is required for designing and managing hydraulic infrastructure such as dams, reservoirs and bridges. In the UK, the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) recommends the use of the index flood method to estimate the design flood as the product of a local scale factor (the index flood, IF) and a dimensionless regional growth factor (GF). For gauged catchments the IF is usually estimated as the median annual maximum flood (QMED), while for ungauged catchments it is computed through multiple linear regression models based on a set of morpho-climatic indices of the basin. The GF is estimated by fitting the annual maxima with the generalised logistic distribution (GL) using two methods depending on the record length and the target return period: single-site or pooled analysis. The single site-analysis estimates the GF from the annual maxima of the subject site alone; the pooled analysis uses data from a set of catchments hydrologically similar to the subject site. In this work estimates of floods up to 100-year return period obtained from the FEH approach are compared to those obtained using Grid-to-Grid, a continuous physically-based hydrological model. The model converts rainfall and potential evapotranspiration into river flows by modelling surface/sub-surface runoff, lateral water movements, and snow-pack. It is configured on a 1km2 grid resolution and it uses spatial datasets of topography, soil, and land cover. It was set up in Great Britain and has been evaluated for the period 1960-2014 in forward-mode (i.e. without parameter calibration) using daily meteorological forcing data. The modelled floods with a given return period (5,10, 30, 50, and 100 years) were computed from the modelled discharge annual maxima and compared to the FEH estimates for 100 catchments in Great Britain. Preliminary results suggest that there is a good agreement between modelled and

  10. Modelling and assessment of urban flood hazards based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves reformation

    OpenAIRE

    Ghazavi, Reza; Moafi Rabori, Ali; Ahadnejad Reveshty, Mohsen

    2016-01-01

    Estimate design storm based on rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves is an important parameter for hydrologic planning of urban areas. The main aim of this study was to estimate rainfall intensities of Zanjan city watershed based on overall relationship of rainfall IDF curves and appropriate model of hourly rainfall estimation (Sherman method, Ghahreman and Abkhezr method). Hydrologic and hydraulic impacts of rainfall IDF curves change in flood properties was evaluated via Stormw...

  11. A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Haberlandt

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series.

    First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in

  12. Revision of regional maximum flood (RMF) estimation in Namibia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-11-26

    Nov 26, 2013 ... sediment deposits, also known as slackwater flood deposits, are stage indicators of ..... of these stations has been operational for 33 years. This cor- responds to ..... Management, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel. GRODEK T ...

  13. A review of the regional maximum flood and rational formula using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Flood estimation methods in South Africa are based on three general approaches: empirical, deterministic and probabilistic. The \\"quick\\" methods often used as checks are the regional maximum flood (RMF) and the rational formula (RF), which form part of the empirical and deterministic methods respectively. A database of ...

  14. Three-ring stable oxygen isotope ratios indicating cooler and wetter climate conditions and high flood frequency periods in the Red River Basin, Manitoba, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buhay, W.M.; Harms, P.; Marcino, D.; Mayer, B.; St. George, S.; Nielsen, E.

    2002-01-01

    In the Red River region of southern Manitoba, Canada, the frequency of flood events tends to increase during cooler and wetter climate conditions. Predictably, recorded Red River flood stages are primarily a result of meteorological conditions which produce an increase runoff due to excess snowmelt and heavy spring precipitation. Winter skewed precipitation periods corresponding to cooler and wetter conditions in the Red River Basin may provide traceable oxygen isotope signals in hydrologically sensitive trees occupying the basin. To test this hypothesis, three overlapping oak tree-ring chronologies (KPO1: 1990 to 1795; STVO1: 1985 to 1797; STVO2: 1990 to 1845) were annually sampled and processed for their cellulose

  15. The framework of a UAS-aided flash flood modeling system for coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H.; Xu, H.

    2016-02-01

    Flash floods cause severe economic damage and are one of the leading causes of fatalities connected with natural disasters in the Gulf Coast region. Current flash flood modeling systems rely on empirical hydrological models driven by precipitation estimates only. Although precipitation is the driving factor for flash floods, soil moisture, urban drainage system and impervious surface have been recognized to have significant impacts on the development of flash floods. We propose a new flash flooding modeling system that integrates 3-D hydrological simulation with satellite and multi-UAS observations. It will have three advantages over existing modeling systems. First, it will incorporate 1-km soil moisture data through integrating satellite images from European SMOS mission and NASA's SMAP mission. The utilization of high-resolution satellite images will provide essential information to determine antecedent soil moisture condition, which is an essential control on flood generation. Second, this system is able to adjust flood forecasting based on real-time inundation information collected by multi-UAS. A group of UAS will be deployed during storm events to capture the changing extent of flooded areas and water depth at multiple critical locations simultaneously. Such information will be transmitted to a hydrological model to validate and improve flood simulation. Third, the backbone of this system is a state-of-the-art 3-D hydrological model that assimilates the hydrological information from satellites and multi-UAS. The model is able to address surface water-groundwater interactions and reflect the effects of various infrastructures. Using Web-GIS technologies, the modeling results will be available online as interactive flood maps accessible to the public. To support the development and verification of this modeling system, surface and subsurface hydrological observations will be conducted in a number of small watersheds in the Coastal Bend region. We envision this

  16. Analysis of flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

    2007-01-01

    The Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania experienced severe flooding as a result of intense rainfall during June 2006. The height of the flood waters on the rivers and tributaries approached or exceeded the peak of record at many locations. Updated flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations on tributaries in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins were analyzed using data through the 2006 water year to determine if there were any major differences in the flood-discharge data. Flood frequencies for return intervals of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500 years (Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, Q100, and Q500) were determined from annual maximum series (AMS) data from continuous-record gaging stations (stations) and were compared to flood discharges obtained from previously published Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) and to flood frequencies using partial-duration series (PDS) data. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to determine any statistically significant differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS. Percentage differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS also were determined for the 10, 50, 100, and 500 return intervals. A Mann-Kendall trend test was performed to determine statistically significant trends in the updated AMS peak-flow data for the period of record at the 41 stations. In addition to AMS station data, PDS data were used to determine flood-frequency discharges. The AMS and PDS flood-frequency data were compared to determine any differences between the two data sets. An analysis also was performed on AMS-derived flood frequencies for four stations to evaluate the possible effects of flood-control reservoirs on peak flows. Additionally, flood frequencies for three stations were evaluated to determine possible effects of urbanization on peak flows. The results of the Wilcoxon signed

  17. Impact of climatic and environmental changes on flood-duration-frequencies in the Fengle Rriver (YangTze Basin, China)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salles, Christian; Chu, Yin; Tournoud, Marie-George; Ou, Mengli; Perrin, Jean-Louis; Cres, François-Noël; Ma, Youhua

    2016-04-01

    Future water management challenges such as flood risk are highly relevant to climate and land use changes. Climate change is expected to lead to an ongoing intensification of effects on changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration which could exacerbate flooding issues. Land use changes, modifications of agricultural practices and urbanization alter the apportionment of the different hydrological processes at the basin scale and could significantly affect the seasonality of streamflow. At the local scale, the consequences of climate and land use changes on flood occurrence and magnitude are a major issue for the economic development and management policy of basin area. This study apply a methodology for investigating the potential consequences of land use ,as well as precipitation and temperature changes on flood occurrence, duration and magnitude, accounting for uncertainties in scenario data and hydrological model parameters. The discharge time series predicted for the future were simulated from a calibrated and validated distributed hydrological model. The model was run from inputs which are -predicted rainfall time series based on scenarios of changes identified from a literature review, -future evapotranspiration rates assessed from temperature changes identified from a literature review -and scenarios of land-use changes The study area, the Fengle River basin (1500 km2), is located in the northeast part of Yangtze basin. The river is one of the main tributaries of the Chao Lake, the fifth largest natural lake of China. The lake catchment is 9130 km2 in area, including the city of Hefei and a large extent of agricultural and rural areas. Many changes are expected in land use and agricultural practices in the future, due to the touristic appeal of the Chao Lake shore and the growth of the city of Hefei. Climate changes are also expected in this region, with a high impact on rainfall regime. In the current period heavy storms and floods occur predominantly

  18. Flood disaster and protection measures in Turkey Case Study: May 1998 flood disaster at North Western Black Sea Region of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gurer, Ibrahim; Ozguier, Hamza

    2004-01-01

    Due to geographical location, geology, and topography, Turkey undergoes three main types of natural disasters related to gravity flows; floods, landslides, and snow avalanches. Flooding is second important natural hazard after earthquakes with 18 floods and 23 deaths per year, on average. During 20-21 May 1998, the rainfall which was equal to about four times of long-term mean annual rainfall total of north western Black Sea geographical region of Turkey affected 35.000 m 2 , damaged 1300 km highway, 600 km roads to the villages, and 60 km railway. After the recession of the flood waters, the field survey done proved that 12 highway bridges, 91 small bridges on village roads and 6900 highway culverts, 13.800 m retaining wall and about 500 houses were severely damaged. During the last five years, with the loans and credits provided by World Bank, a series of flood protection structures were designed and built for the rehabilitation of the region. Mostly concentrating on non-structural flood protection studies, a work programme has been drafted in this framework to develop flood management and to reduce or eliminate long-term risk and damage to people and their property from natural hazards and their effects. In this case study, the factors causing the flood disaster are given, and the flood event is analyzed from hydrologic and morphologic points of view. Also the different types of the flood protection measures are exemplified and the experience gained in controlling the flood damages is presented.(Author)

  19. Probabilistic Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for the October 2015 Flooding in South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, R.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M.

    2017-12-01

    The potential for the intensity of extreme rainfall to increase with climate change nonstationarity has emerged as a prevailing issue for the design of engineering infrastructure, underscoring the need to better characterize the statistical assumptions underlying hydrological frequency analysis. The focus of this study is on developing probabilistic rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for the major catchments in South Carolina (SC) where the October 02-05, 2015 floods caused infrastructure damages and several lives to be lost. Continuous to discrete probability distributions including Weibull, the generalized extreme value (GEV), the Generalized Pareto (GP), the Gumbel, the Fréchet, the normal, and the log-normal functions were fitted to the short duration (i.e., 24-hr) intense rainfall. Analysis suggests that the GEV probability distribution provided the most adequate fit to rainfall records. Rainfall frequency analysis indicated return periods above 500 years for urban drainage systems with a maximum return level of approximately 2,744 years, whereas rainfall magnitude was much lower in rural catchments. Further, the return levels (i.e., 2, 20, 50,100, 500, and 1000 years) computed by Monte Carlo method were consistently higher than the NOAA design IDF curves. Given the potential increase in the magnitude of intense rainfall, current IDF curves can substantially underestimate the frequency of extremes, indicating the susceptibility of the storm drainage and flood control structures in SC that were designed under assumptions of a stationary climate.

  20. Regional Sediment Management (RSM) Principles in Flood Recovery: Incorporating RSM after the 2011 Missouri River Flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    project also included adding seepage blankets in mul- tiple areas along the landward side of the lev- ee. At the Upper Hamburg Chute site, less than...that served as the downstream shore of the spillway pond. The pond is part of a recreation area and serves as a wa- ter intake for the Garrison fish ...Corps of Engineers (USACE) Re- gional Sediment Management (RSM) principles into a wide variety of projects as part of flood recov- ery and

  1. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Liang Qi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China. The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  2. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

    2015-10-29

    Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  3. Investigating flood susceptible areas in inaccessible regions using remote sensing and geographic information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Joongbin; Lee, Kyoo-Seock

    2017-03-01

    Every summer, North Korea (NK) suffers from floods, resulting in decreased agricultural production and huge economic loss. Besides meteorological reasons, several factors can accelerate flood damage. Environmental studies about NK are difficult because NK is inaccessible due to the division of Korea. Remote sensing (RS) can be used to delineate flood inundated areas in inaccessible regions such as NK. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial characteristics of flood susceptible areas (FSAs) using multi-temporal RS data and digital elevation model data. Such study will provide basic information to restore FSAs after reunification. Defining FSAs at the study site revealed that rice paddies with low elevation and low slope were the most susceptible areas to flood in NK. Numerous sediments from upper streams, especially streams through crop field areas on steeply sloped hills, might have been transported and deposited into stream channels, thus disturbing water flow. In conclusion, NK floods may have occurred not only due to meteorological factors but also due to inappropriate land use for flood management. In order to mitigate NK flood damage, reforestation is needed for terraced crop fields. In addition, drainage capacity for middle stream channel near rice paddies should be improved.

  4. The influence of flood frequency, riparian vegetation and threshold on long-term river transport capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croissant, Thomas; Lague, Dimitri; Davy, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Climate fluctuations at geological timescales control the capacity of rivers to transport sediment with consequences on geochemical cycles, sedimentary basins dynamics and sedimentation/tectonics interactions. While the impact of differential friction generated by riparian vegetation has been studied for individual flood events, its impact on the long-term sediment transport capacity of rivers, modulated by the frequency of floods remains unknown. Here, we investigate this effect on a simplified river-floodplain configuration obeying observed hydraulic scaling laws. We numerically integrate the full-frequency magnitude distribution of discharge events and its impact on the transport capacity of bedload and suspended material for various level of vegetation-linked differential friction. We demonstrate that riparian vegetation by acting as a virtual confinement of the flow i) increases significantly the instantaneous transport capacity of the river independently of the transport mode and ii) increases the long term bedload transport rates as a function of discharge variability. Our results expose the dominance of flood frequency rather than riparian vegetation on the long term sediment transport capacity. Therefore, flood frequency has to be considered when evaluating long-term bedload transport capacity while floodplain vegetation is important only in high discharge variability regimes. By comparing the transport capacity of unconfined alluvial rivers and confined bedrock gorges, we demonstrate that the latter always presents the highest long term transport capacity at equivalent width and slope. The loss of confinement at the transition between bedrock and alluvial river must be compensated by a widening or a steepening of the alluvial channel to avoid infinite storage. Because steepening is never observed in natural system, we compute the alluvial widening factor value that varies between 3 to 11 times the width of the bedrock channel depending on riparian

  5. Regional flood hazard assessment of the Paducah and Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, R.O.; Wang, J.C.; Lee, D.W.

    1991-01-01

    Regional flood-hazard assessments performed for the Paducah and Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plants are reviewed, compared, and contrasted to determine the relationship of probable maximum flood methodology with respect to US Department of Energy design and evaluation guidelines. The Paducah assessment was carried out using probable minimum flood methodology, while the Portsmouth assessment utilized probabilistic techniques. Results indicated that regional flooding along nearby rivers would not inundate either plant, and that the guidelines were satisfied. A comparison of results indicated that the probable minimum flood recurrence interval associated with the Paducah assessment exceeded the 10,000-year requirement of the guidelines, while recurrence intervals obtained in the Portsmouth assessment could be above or below 10,000 years depending on the choice of the probabilistic model used to perform the assessment. It was concluded, based on an analysis of two data points, that smaller watersheds driven by single event storms could be assessed using probabilistic techniques, while probable maximum flood methodology could be applied to larger drainage basins flooded by storm sequences

  6. Analysis and Comparison on the Flood Simulation in Typical Hilly & Semi-mountainous Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luan, Qinghua; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Xiang; Liu, Jiahong; Fu, Xiaoran; Zhang, Kun; Ma, Jun

    2017-12-01

    Water-logging and flood are both serious in hilly and semi-mountainous cities of China, but the related research is rare. Lincheng Economic Development Zone (EDZ) in Hebei Province as the typical city was selected and storm water management model (SWMM) was applied for flood simulation in this study. The regional model was constructed through calibrating and verifying the runoff coefficient of different flood processes. Different designed runoff processes in five-year, ten-year and twenty-year return periods in basic scenario and in the low impact development (LID) scenario, respectively, were simulated and compared. The result shows that: LID measures have effect on peak reduction in the study area, but the effectiveness is not significant; the effectiveness of lagging peak time is poor. These simulation results provide decision support for the rational construction of LID in the study area, and provide the references for regional rain flood management.

  7. Floods of the Lower Tisza from the late 17th century onwards: frequency, magnitude, seasonality and great flood events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    The present paper is based on a recently developed database including contemporary original, administrative, legal and private source materials (published and archival) as well as media reports related to the floods occurred on the lower sections of the Tisza river in Hungary, with special emphasis on the area of Szeged town. The study area is well-represented by contemporary source evidence from the late 17th century onwards, when the town and its broader area was reoccupied from the Ottoman Turkish Empire. Concerning the applied source materials, the main bases of investigation are the administrative (archival) sources such as town council protocols of Szeged and county meeting protocols of Csanád and Csongrád Counties. In these (legal-)administrative documents damaging events (natural/environmental hazards) were systematically recorded. Moreover, other source types such as taxation-related damage accounts as well as private and official reports, letters and correspondence (published, unpublished) were also included. Concerning published evidence, a most important source is flood reports in contemporary newspapers as well as town chronicles and other contemporary narratives. In the presentation the main focus is on the analysis of flood-rich flood-poor periods of the last ca. 330 years; moreover, the seasonality distribution as well as the magnitude of Tisza flood events are also discussed. Another important aim of the poster is to provide a short overview, in the form of case studies, on the greatest flood events (e.g. duration, magnitude, damages, multi-annual consequences), and their further impacts on the urban and countryside development as well as on (changes in) flood defence strategies. In this respect, especially two flood events, the great (1815-)1816 and the catastrophic 1879 flood (shortly with causes and consequences) - that practically erased Szeged town from the ground - are presented in more detail.

  8. Impacts of the 2013 Extreme Flood in Northeast China on Regional Groundwater Depth and Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xihua Wang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Flooding’s impact on shallow groundwater is not well investigated. In this study, we analyzed changes in the depth and quality of a regional shallow aquifer in the 10.9 × 104 km2 Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China, following a large flood in the summer of 2013. Pre- (2008–2012 and post-flood records on groundwater table depth and groundwater chemistry were gathered from 20 wells across the region. Spatial variability of groundwater recharge after the flood was assessed and the changes in groundwater quality in the post-flood period were determined. The study found a considerable increase in the groundwater table after the 2013 summer flood across the region, with the largest (3.20 m and fastest (0.80 m·s−1 rising height occurring in western Sanjiang Plain. The rising height and velocity gradually declined from the west to the east of the plain. For the entire region, we estimated an average recharge height of 1.24 m for the four flood months (June to September of 2013. Furthermore, we found that the extreme flood reduced nitrate (NO3− and chloride (Cl− concentrations and electrical conductivity (EC in shallow groundwater in the areas that were close to rivers, but increased NO3− and Cl− concentrations and EC in the areas that were under intensive agricultural practices. As the region’s groundwater storage and quality have been declining due to the rapidly increasing rice cultivation, this study shows that floods should be managed as water resources to ease the local water shortage as well as shallow groundwater pollution.

  9. Model parameters conditioning on regional hydrologic signatures for process-based design flood estimation in ungauged basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Daniela; De Luca, Davide Luciano

    2015-04-01

    The use of rainfall-runoff models represents an alternative to statistical approaches (such as at-site or regional flood frequency analysis) for design flood estimation, and constitutes an answer to the increasing need for synthetic design hydrographs (SDHs) associated to a specific return period. However, the lack of streamflow observations and the consequent high uncertainty associated with parameter estimation, usually pose serious limitations to the use of process-based approaches in ungauged catchments, which in contrast represent the majority in practical applications. This work presents the application of a Bayesian procedure that, for a predefined rainfall-runoff model, allows for the assessment of posterior parameters distribution, using the limited and uncertain information available for the response of an ungauged catchment (Bulygina et al. 2009; 2011). The use of regional estimates of river flow statistics, interpreted as hydrological signatures that measure theoretically relevant system process behaviours (Gupta et al. 2008), within this framework represents a valuable option and has shown significant developments in recent literature to constrain the plausible model response and to reduce the uncertainty in ungauged basins. In this study we rely on the first three L-moments of annual streamflow maxima, for which regressions are available from previous studies (Biondi et al. 2012; Laio et al. 2011). The methodology was carried out for a catchment located in southern Italy, and used within a Monte Carlo scheme (MCs) considering both event-based and continuous simulation approaches for design flood estimation. The applied procedure offers promising perspectives to perform model calibration and uncertainty analysis in ungauged basins; moreover, in the context of design flood estimation, process-based methods coupled with MCs approach have the advantage of providing simulated floods uncertainty analysis that represents an asset in risk-based decision

  10. Preliminary flood-duration frequency estimates using naturalized streamflow records for the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Greg D.; Stonewall, Adam J.

    2018-02-13

    In this study, “naturalized” daily streamflow records, created by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation, were used to compute 1-, 3-, 7-, 10-, 15-, 30-, and 60-day annual maximum streamflow durations, which are running averages of daily streamflow for the number of days in each duration. Once the annual maximum durations were computed, the floodduration frequencies could be estimated. The estimated flood-duration frequencies correspond to the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent probabilities of their occurring or being exceeded each year. For this report, the focus was on the Willamette River Basin in Oregon, which is a subbasin of the Columbia River Basin. This study is part of a larger one encompassing the entire Columbia Basin.

  11. A comparison of three approaches to non-stationary flood frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debele, S. E.; Strupczewski, W. G.; Bogdanowicz, E.

    2017-08-01

    Non-stationary flood frequency analysis (FFA) is applied to statistical analysis of seasonal flow maxima from Polish and Norwegian catchments. Three non-stationary estimation methods, namely, maximum likelihood (ML), two stage (WLS/TS) and GAMLSS (generalized additive model for location, scale and shape parameters), are compared in the context of capturing the effect of non-stationarity on the estimation of time-dependent moments and design quantiles. The use of a multimodel approach is recommended, to reduce the errors due to the model misspecification in the magnitude of quantiles. The results of calculations based on observed seasonal daily flow maxima and computer simulation experiments showed that GAMLSS gave the best results with respect to the relative bias and root mean square error in the estimates of trend in the standard deviation and the constant shape parameter, while WLS/TS provided better accuracy in the estimates of trend in the mean value. Within three compared methods the WLS/TS method is recommended to deal with non-stationarity in short time series. Some practical aspects of the GAMLSS package application are also presented. The detailed discussion of general issues related to consequences of climate change in the FFA is presented in the second part of the article entitled "Around and about an application of the GAMLSS package in non-stationary flood frequency analysis".

  12. Magnitude and frequency of flooding on small urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area, west-central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, M.A.; Woodham, W.M.

    1983-01-01

    Hydrologic data collected on nine small urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area of west-central Florida and a method for estimating peak discharges in the study area are described. The watersheds have mixed land use and range in size from 0.34 to 3.45 square miles. Watershed soils, land use, and storm-drainage system data are described. Urban development ranged from a sparsely populated area with open-ditch storm sewers and 19% impervious area to a completely sewered watershed with 61% impervious cover. The U.S. Geological Survey natural-basin and urban-watershed models were calibrated for the nine watersheds using 5-minute interval rainfall data from the Tampa, Florida, National Weather Service rain gage to simulate annual peak discharge for the period 1906-52. A log-Pearson Type III frequency analysis of the simulated annual maximum discharge was used to determine the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood discharges for each watershed. Flood discharges were related in a multiple-linear regression to drainage area, channel slope, detention storage area, and an urban-development factor determined by the extent of curb and gutter street drainage and storm-sewer system. The average standard error for the regional relations ranged from + or - 32 to + or - 42%. (USGS)

  13. The influence of hydroclimatic variability on flood frequency in the Lower Rhine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toonen, W.H.J.; Middelkoop, H.; Konijnendijk, T.Y.M.; Macklin, M.G.; Cohen, K.M.

    Climate change is expected to significantly affect flooding regimes of river systems in the future. For Western Europe, flood risk assessments generally assume an increase in extreme events and flood risk, and as a result major investments are planned to reduce their impacts. However, flood risk

  14. Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaud, Patrick; Cantet, Philippe; Odry, Jean

    2017-11-01

    Flood frequency analyses (FFAs) are needed for flood risk management. Many methods exist ranging from classical purely statistical approaches to more complex approaches based on process simulation. The results of these methods are associated with uncertainties that are sometimes difficult to estimate due to the complexity of the approaches or the number of parameters, especially for process simulation. This is the case of the simulation-based FFA approach called SHYREG presented in this paper, in which a rainfall generator is coupled with a simple rainfall-runoff model in an attempt to estimate the uncertainties due to the estimation of the seven parameters needed to estimate flood frequencies. The six parameters of the rainfall generator are mean values, so their theoretical distribution is known and can be used to estimate the generator uncertainties. In contrast, the theoretical distribution of the single hydrological model parameter is unknown; consequently, a bootstrap method is applied to estimate the calibration uncertainties. The propagation of uncertainty from the rainfall generator to the hydrological model is also taken into account. This method is applied to 1112 basins throughout France. Uncertainties coming from the SHYREG method and from purely statistical approaches are compared, and the results are discussed according to the length of the recorded observations, basin size and basin location. Uncertainties of the SHYREG method decrease as the basin size increases or as the length of the recorded flow increases. Moreover, the results show that the confidence intervals of the SHYREG method are relatively small despite the complexity of the method and the number of parameters (seven). This is due to the stability of the parameters and takes into account the dependence of uncertainties due to the rainfall model and the hydrological calibration. Indeed, the uncertainties on the flow quantiles are on the same order of magnitude as those associated with

  15. Prehistoric floods on the Tennessee River—Assessing the use of stratigraphic records of past floods for improved flood-frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, Jim E.

    2017-06-14

    Stratigraphic analysis, coupled with geochronologic techniques, indicates that a rich history of large Tennessee River floods is preserved in the Tennessee River Gorge area. Deposits of flood sediment from the 1867 peak discharge of record (460,000 cubic feet per second at Chattanooga, Tennessee) are preserved at many locations throughout the study area at sites with flood-sediment accumulation. Small exposures at two boulder overhangs reveal evidence of three to four other floods similar in size, or larger, than the 1867 flood in the last 3,000 years—one possibly as much or more than 50 percent larger. Records of floods also are preserved in stratigraphic sections at the mouth of the gorge at Williams Island and near Eaves Ferry, about 70 river miles upstream of the gorge. These stratigraphic records may extend as far back as about 9,000 years ago, giving a long history of Tennessee River floods. Although more evidence is needed to confirm these findings, a more in-depth comprehensive paleoflood study is feasible for the Tennessee River.

  16. A radar-based hydrological model for flash flood prediction in the dry regions of Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronen, Alon; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

    2014-05-01

    Flash floods are floods which follow shortly after rainfall events, and are among the most destructive natural disasters that strike people and infrastructures in humid and arid regions alike. Using a hydrological model for the prediction of flash floods in gauged and ungauged basins can help mitigate the risk and damage they cause. The sparsity of rain gauges in arid regions requires the use of radar measurements in order to get reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE). While many hydrological models use radar data, only a handful do so in dry climate. This research presents a robust radar-based hydro-meteorological model built specifically for dry climate. Using this model we examine the governing factors of flash floods in the arid and semi-arid regions of Israel in particular and in dry regions in general. The hydrological model built is a semi-distributed, physically-based model, which represents the main hydrological processes in the area, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. Three infiltration functions were examined - Initial & Constant, SCS-CN and Green&Ampt. The parameters for each function were found by calibration based on 53 flood events in three catchments, and validation was performed using 55 flood events in six catchments. QPE were obtained from a C-band weather radar and adjusted using a weighted multiple regression method based on a rain gauge network. Antecedent moisture conditions were calculated using a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM). We found that the SCS-CN infiltration function performed better than the other two, with reasonable agreement between calculated and measured peak discharge. Effects of storm characteristics were studied using synthetic storms from a high resolution weather generator (HiReS-WG), and showed a strong correlation between storm speed, storm direction and rain depth over desert soils to flood volume and peak discharge.

  17. Comparison of Flood Frequency Analysis Methods for Ungauged Catchments in France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Odry

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of flood frequency analysis (FFA is to associate flood intensity with a probability of exceedance. Many methods are currently employed for this, ranging from statistical distribution fitting to simulation approaches. In many cases the site of interest is actually ungauged, and a regionalisation scheme has to be associated with the FFA method, leading to a multiplication of the number of possible methods available. This paper presents the results of a wide-range comparison of FFA methods from statistical and simulation families associated with different regionalisation schemes based on regression, or spatial or physical proximity. The methods are applied to a set of 1535 French catchments, and a k-fold cross-validation procedure is used to consider the ungauged configuration. The results suggest that FFA from the statistical family largely relies on the regionalisation step, whereas the simulation-based method is more stable regarding regionalisation. This conclusion emphasises the difficulty of the regionalisation process. The results are also contrasted depending on the type of climate: the Mediterranean catchments tend to aggravate the differences between the methods.

  18. The partial duration series method in regional index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    A regional index-flood method based on the partial duration series model is introduced. The model comprises the assumptions of a Poisson-distributed number of threshold exceedances and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes. The regional T-year event estimator is based on a regional...... estimator is superior to the at-site estimator even in extremely heterogenous regions, the performance of the regional estimator being relatively better in regions with a negative shape parameter. When the record length increases, the relative performance of the regional estimator decreases, but it is still...

  19. Changing frequency of flooding in Bangladesh: Is the wettest place on Earth getting wetter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, K.; Uhe, P.; Rimi, R.; Islam, A. S.; Otto, F. E. L.

    2017-12-01

    Human influence on the Asian monsoon is exerted by two counteracting forces, (1) anthropogenic warming due to the influence of increasing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and (2) radiative cooling due to increased amounts of anthropogenic aerosols. GHG emissions tend to intensify the water cycle and increase monsoon precipitation, whereas aerosols are considered to have the opposite effect. On larger scales, aerosols may be responsible for meridional circulation anomalies as well as direct cooling effects, with an associated tendency for drier monsoon seasons that compensate a change towards wetter conditions in a purely GHG-driven scenario. On regional scales, aerosols weaken the thermal contrast between land and ocean which acts to inhibit the monsoon too. As a result, neither observations nor model simulations that consider all human influences suggest clear changes in extreme precipitation at present. In actual reality we are essentially committed to more rainfall extremes already as aerosol pollution will eventually be reduced regardless of future GHG emissions. Thus we argue that it is crucial to assess the risk related to removing anthropogenic aerosols from the current world as opposed to standard experiments that use projected climate scenarios. We present results from on analysis of extreme precipitation that led to the Bangladesh floods in summer 2016. Since the Meghalaya Hills are the major contributor to flood waters in Bangladesh, we focus on this region, despite slightly higher rainfall anomalies further west. More specifically, we primarily analyze the grid point representing Cherrapunji, also known to be the wettest place on Earth (situated on the southern flank of Meghalaya Hills). We use the weather@home HadAM3P model at 50km spatial resolution. Our model results generally support the notion that rainfall extremes in Cherrapunji might have become more likely already. Mean rainfall is slightly lowered, but 21-day maximum rainfall under current

  20. Regional flood impact assessment for Kiel and Eckernförde, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shustikova, Iuliia; Viavattene, Christophe; Seiß, Guntram

    2017-04-01

    It is well-observed that extreme flood events bring considerable destruction to coastal communities. The estimates of damage increases when direct and indirect losses are both considered in the assessment. This study applied the INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model which is designed to estimate and compare not only tangible but also intangible losses such as risk to life, recovery mechanisms and household displacement. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was performed in order to compare hotspots of high flood risk on the regional scale and detect which impact indicators influence results the most. INDRA allowed assessing the following impact indicators: direct damages to buildings and roads, transport disruption, risk to life and financial recovery mechanisms of private households and businesses. The focus was on two hotspots of flood risk, where direct and indirect impacts from 200 years flood were assessed and analyzed in terms of relative importance to the region. The region here was defined as municipalities located on the Baltic Sea coast within the Schleswig-Holstein state, Germany. The hotspots are the towns of Kiel and Eckernförde. They are urban areas with a high concentration of people and assets, which previously experienced extreme flood events. From the performed investigation it was found out that modeled flood differently impacts Kiel and Eckernförde. The results produced by MCA show that the scores of direct and indirect damage are slightly higher in Eckernförde than in Kiel. Transport disruption is a compelling element in the performed regional impact assessment and demonstrated immense weight. Extreme events may pose significant direct and indirect impacts on the coastal roads, obstructing not only the access to important landmarks such as hospitals, train stations, harbors, etc. but also to contiguous municipalities. Yet, the analysis showed that other impact indicators are rather of local importance and would not cause vast damage on a

  1. Flood moderation by large reservoirs in the humid tropics of Western ghat region of Kerala, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abe, George [Centre for Water Resources Development and Management, Sub Centre, Kottayam South P.O, Kottayam-686 039, Kerala (India); James, E.J. [Water Institute and Dean (Research), Karunya University, Coimbatore-641 114, Tamil Nadu (India)

    2013-07-01

    Kerala State located in the humid tropics receives an average rainfall of 2810 mm. On an average 85% of this rainfall is received during the two monsoons spread from June to November. Midland and lowland regions of several of the river basins of Kerala experience severe flood events during the monsoons. Idamalayar hydro-electric project (1987) in Periyar River basin envisages flood control apart from power generation. This paper analyzes the flood moderation by Idamalayar reservoir considering the storage regime (inflow and outflow) which is subjected to a strong inter annual variability. The role of Idamalayar reservoir in controlling the monsoon floods is analyzed using daily data (1987-2010). The results of analysis show that the flood moderation by the reservoir is 92% when water storage is less than 50%. The reduction is 87% when reservoir storage is between 50 to 90% and moderation reduces to 62% when the reservoir storage is above 90%. Non-parametric trend analysis of fifty years of hydrologic data shows a reducing trend in inflow and storage during south-west monsoon which reduced spill and subsequent flood events during north-east monsoon.

  2. Higher moments method for generalized Pareto distribution in flood frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, C. R.; Chen, Y. F.; Huang, Q.; Gu, S. H.

    2017-08-01

    The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) has proven to be the ideal distribution in fitting with the peak over threshold series in flood frequency analysis. Several moments-based estimators are applied to estimating the parameters of GPD. Higher linear moments (LH moments) and higher probability weighted moments (HPWM) are the linear combinations of Probability Weighted Moments (PWM). In this study, the relationship between them will be explored. A series of statistical experiments and a case study are used to compare their performances. The results show that if the same PWM are used in LH moments and HPWM methods, the parameter estimated by these two methods is unbiased. Particularly, when the same PWM are used, the PWM method (or the HPWM method when the order equals 0) shows identical results in parameter estimation with the linear Moments (L-Moments) method. Additionally, this phenomenon is significant when r ≥ 1 that the same order PWM are used in HPWM and LH moments method.

  3. Comparison of regional index flood estimation procedures based on the extreme value type I distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Thomas Rodding; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2002-01-01

    the prediction uncertainty and that the presence of intersite correlation tends to increase the uncertainty. A simulation study revealed that in regional index-flood estimation the method of probability weighted moments is preferable to method of moment estimation with regard to bias and RMSE.......A comparison of different methods for estimating T-year events is presented, all based on the Extreme Value Type I distribution. Series of annual maximum flood from ten gauging stations at the New Zealand South island have been used. Different methods of predicting the 100-year event...... and the connected uncertainty have been applied: At-site estimation and regional index-flood estimation with and without accounting for intersite correlation using either the method of moments or the method of probability weighted moments for parameter estimation. Furthermore, estimation at ungauged sites were...

  4. Identification of homogeneous regions for rainfall regional frequency analysis considering typhoon event in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heo, J. H.; Ahn, H.; Kjeldsen, T. R.

    2017-12-01

    South Korea is prone to large, and often disastrous, rainfall events caused by a mixture of monsoon and typhoon rainfall phenomena. However, traditionally, regional frequency analysis models did not consider this mixture of phenomena when fitting probability distributions, potentially underestimating the risk posed by the more extreme typhoon events. Using long-term observed records of extreme rainfall from 56 sites combined with detailed information on the timing and spatial impact of past typhoons from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), this study developed and tested a new mixture model for frequency analysis of two different phenomena; events occurring regularly every year (monsoon) and events only occurring in some years (typhoon). The available annual maximum 24 hour rainfall data were divided into two sub-samples corresponding to years where the annual maximum is from either (1) a typhoon event, or (2) a non-typhoon event. Then, three-parameter GEV distribution was fitted to each sub-sample along with a weighting parameter characterizing the proportion of historical events associated with typhoon events. Spatial patterns of model parameters were analyzed and showed that typhoon events are less commonly associated with annual maximum rainfall in the North-West part of the country (Seoul area), and more prevalent in the southern and eastern parts of the country, leading to the formation of two distinct typhoon regions: (1) North-West; and (2) Southern and Eastern. Using a leave-one-out procedure, a new regional frequency model was tested and compared to a more traditional index flood method. The results showed that the impact of typhoon on design events might previously have been underestimated in the Seoul area. This suggests that the use of the mixture model should be preferred where the typhoon phenomena is less frequent, and thus can have a significant effect on the rainfall-frequency curve. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MPSS31

  5. Development of a customised design flood estimation tool to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The estimation of design flood events, i.e., floods characterised by a specific magnitude-frequency relationship, at a particular site in a specific region is necessary for the planning, design and operation of hydraulic structures. Both the occurrence and frequency of flood events, along with the uncertainty involved in the ...

  6. Improving techniques to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on urban streams in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia, 2011 (ver. 1.1, March 2014) : U.S. Geological Survey scientific investigations report 2014-5030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency : of floods are essential for the design of transportation and : water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and : flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly : important in dens...

  7. Flood frequency analysis at ungauged sites in the KwaZulu-Natal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Use of the index-flood method at ungauged sites requires methods for estimation of the index-flood parameter at these sites. This study attempts to relate the mean annual flood to site characteristics of catchments in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The ordinary, weighted and generalised least square methods for estimating ...

  8. Flood frequency analysis at ungauged sites in the KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Thomas Rodding; Smithers, J.C.; Schulze, R.E.

    2001-01-01

    Use of the index-flood method at ungauged sites requires methods for estimation of the index-flood parameter at these sites. This study attempts to relate the mean annual flood to site characteristics of catchments in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The ordinary, weighted and generalised least square...

  9. A Study on Regional Frequency Analysis using Artificial Neural Network - the Sumjin River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, C.; Ahn, J.; Ahn, H.; Heo, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Regional frequency analysis means to make up for shortcomings in the at-site frequency analysis which is about a lack of sample size through the regional concept. Regional rainfall quantile depends on the identification of hydrologically homogeneous regions, hence the regional classification based on hydrological homogeneous assumption is very important. For regional clustering about rainfall, multidimensional variables and factors related geographical features and meteorological figure are considered such as mean annual precipitation, number of days with precipitation in a year and average maximum daily precipitation in a month. Self-Organizing Feature Map method which is one of the artificial neural network algorithm in the unsupervised learning techniques solves N-dimensional and nonlinear problems and be shown results simply as a data visualization technique. In this study, for the Sumjin river basin in South Korea, cluster analysis was performed based on SOM method using high-dimensional geographical features and meteorological factor as input data. then, for the results, in order to evaluate the homogeneity of regions, the L-moment based discordancy and heterogeneity measures were used. Rainfall quantiles were estimated as the index flood method which is one of regional rainfall frequency analysis. Clustering analysis using SOM method and the consequential variation in rainfall quantile were analyzed. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MPSS31-001) from Supporting Technology Development Program for Disaster Management funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security(MPSS) of the Korean government.

  10. Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria Carmen; Marcos, Raul; Turco, Marco; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential relationship between flash flood events and convective precipitation in Catalonia, as well as any related trends. The paper starts with an overview of flash floods and their trends in the Mediterranean region, along with their associated factors, followed by the definition of, identification of, and trends in convective precipitation. After this introduction the paper focuses on the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula, for which there is a long-term precipitation series (since 1928) of 1-min precipitation from the Fabra Observatory, as well as a shorter (1996-2011) but more extensive precipitation series (43 rain gauges) of 5-min precipitation. Both series have been used to characterise the degree of convective contribution to rainfall, introducing the β parameter as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period. Information about flood events was obtained from the INUNGAMA database (a flood database created by the GAMA team), with the aim of finding any potential links to convective precipitation. These flood data were gathered using information on damage where flood is treated as a multifactorial risk, and where any trend or anomaly might have been caused by one or more factors affecting hazard, vulnerability or exposure. Trend analysis has shown an increase in flash flood events. The fact that no trends were detected in terms of extreme values of precipitation on a daily scale, nor on the associated ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) extreme index, could point to an increase in vulnerability, an increase in exposure, or changes in land use. However, the summer increase in convective precipitation was concentrated in less torrential events, which could partially explain this positive trend in flash flood events. The β parameter has been also used to characterise the type of flood event according to the features of the precipitation. The highest values

  11. Spatio-temporal characteristics of the extreme precipitation by L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun; Sun, Shanlei

    2016-05-01

    The regionalization methods, which "trade space for time" by pooling information from different locations in the frequency analysis, are efficient tools to enhance the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. This paper aims at improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation by using regionalization methods, and providing scientific background and practical assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. To achieve the main goals, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the most popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation with special attention paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which has not been considered by most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence, and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, generalized extreme-value (GEV) and generalized normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best fitted distributions for most of the sub-regions, and estimated quantiles for each region were obtained. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90 % error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those without inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with a return period of 100 years were finally obtained which indicated that there are two regions with highest precipitation

  12. Two-dimensional Model of Ciliwung River Flood in DKI Jakarta for Development of the Regional Flood Index Map

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Formánek

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to present a sophisticated method of developing supporting material for flood control implementation in DKI Jakarta. High flow rates in the Ciliwung River flowing through Jakarta regularly causes extensive flooding in the rainy season. The affected area comprises highly densely populated villages. For developing an efficient early warning system in view of decreasing the vulnerability of the locations a flood index map has to be available. This study analyses the development of a flood risk map of the inundation area based on a two-dimensional modeling using FESWMS. The reference event used for the model was the most recent significant flood in 2007. The resulting solution represents flood characteristics such as inundation area, inundation depth and flow velocity. Model verification was performed by confrontation of the results with survey data. The model solution was overlaid with a street map of Jakarta. Finally, alternatives for flood mitigation measures are discussed.

  13. Increased risk of flooding on the coast of Alicante (Region of Valencia, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Olcina Cantos

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In the past two decades, episodes of flooding on the coast of Alicante (Spain have led to substantial losses in human life in economic terms. With increased exposure to these phenomena comes also increased vulnerability. Given the various effects of flooding in areas of similar exposure, differences in vulnerability across regions at risk need to be analysed also in terms of the socioeconomic factors of the groups of society that may be affected, and of their perception of risk. This paper studies the increased risk of flooding in three locations on the Alicante coast as a result of urban occupation of areas subject to this hazard. The consequences of the most recent episodes in this area are analysed and a risk assessment, using survey-based research in the affected areas, is performed.

  14. Viability of Green Roofs as a Flood Mitigation Element in the Central Region of Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mora-Melià

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Population increase and urban development over the last 20 years in Chile have outgrown most rainwater drainage and evacuation systems. Many cities located in the central region suffer from frequent floods in some of their sectors during winter rainfall events. In addition, the lack of green spaces in these cities leads to biodiversity loss, increasing temperatures, greater energy demands, etc. Green roofs offer a solution that can mitigate climate change by reducing the runoff in cities with extensive, highly impermeable areas. This work analyses the installation of green roofs as a potential solution to the sectorial floods suffered by many cities in central Chile. The methodology includes the identification of conflictive sectors in the city of Curicó, hydrological modelling with the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM software, the consideration of different distributions and types of green roof surfaces, and computational simulations to determine the feasibility of green roofs for preventing floods. The results show that, for moderate rainfall events, all studied sectors could avoid flooding if at least 50% of the surrounding area had green roofs (irrespective of the type of green roof. In contrast, in the presence of strong rainfall events, only some semi-extensive and extensive green roofs covering 60% to 95% of the surrounding area, respectively, could prevent flooding.

  15. Regional models for distributed flash-flood nowcasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Bihan Guillaume

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods monitoring systems developed up to now generally enable a real-time assessment of the potential flash-floods magnitudes based on highly distributed hydrological models and weather radar records. The approach presented here aims to go one step ahead by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of flash floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the considered area in order (1 to evaluate based on a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2 to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk based on geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build a simplified impact model (discharge-impact curve for each river reach, which can be used to directly estimate the importance of potentially affected assets based on the outputs of a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This article presents a first case study conducted in the Gard region (south eastern France. The first validation results are presented in terms of (1 accuracy of the delineation of the flooded areas estimated based on the Cartino method and using a high resolution DTM, and (2 relevance and usefulness of the impact model obtained. The impacts estimated at the event scale will now be evaluated in a near future based on insurance claim data provided by CCR (Caisse Centrale de Réassurrance.

  16. Mapping the vulnerability hotspots over Hindu-Kush Himalaya region to flooding disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shada Elalem

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A disproportionate share of the global economic and human losses caused by environmental shocks is borne by people in the developing nations. The mountain region of Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH in South Asia is threatened by numerous flooding events annually. An efficient disaster risk reduction often needs to rest upon location-based synoptic view of vulnerability. Resolving this deficit improves the ability to take risk reduction measures in a cost-effective way, and in doing so, strengthens the resilience of societies to flooding disasters. The central aim of this research is to identify the vulnerable locations across HKH boundary from the perspective of reported history of economic and human impacts due to occurrence of flooding disasters. A detailed analysis indicates a very high spatial heterogeneity in flooding disaster occurrence in the past 6 decades. The most recent decade reported highest number of disasters and greater spatial coverage as compared to the earlier decades. The data indicates that, in general, economic impacts of flooding disasters were notably higher in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nepal. On the other hand, vulnerability scenarios with respect to human impacts were diverse for different countries. In terms of morbidity and mortality, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Bhutan and India were detected to be most susceptible to human impacts. Although Bhutan had seen lesser number of flooding disasters, higher population living within disaster prone region make them vulnerable. In summary, complex interactions between natural and socio-economic conditions play a dominant role to define and characterize the type and magnitude of vulnerability of HKH countries to disaster occurrence and their economic and human impacts.

  17. Climatic and basin factors affecting the flood frequency curve: PART I – A simple sensitivity analysis based on the continuous simulation approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Hashemi

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Regionalized and at-site flood frequency curves exhibit considerable variability in their shapes, but the factors controlling the variability (other than sampling effects are not well understood. An application of the Monte Carlo simulation-based derived distribution approach is presented in this two-part paper to explore the influence of climate, described by simulated rainfall and evapotranspiration time series, and basin factors on the flood frequency curve (ffc. The sensitivity analysis conducted in the paper should not be interpreted as reflecting possible climate changes, but the results can provide an indication of the changes to which the flood frequency curve might be sensitive. A single site Neyman Scott point process model of rainfall, with convective and stratiform cells (Cowpertwait, 1994; 1995, has been employed to generate synthetic rainfall inputs to a rainfall runoff model. The time series of the potential evapotranspiration (ETp demand has been represented through an AR(n model with seasonal component, while a simplified version of the ARNO rainfall-runoff model (Todini, 1996 has been employed to simulate the continuous discharge time series. All these models have been parameterised in a realistic manner using observed data and results from previous applications, to obtain ‘reference’ parameter sets for a synthetic case study. Subsequently, perturbations to the model parameters have been made one-at-a-time and the sensitivities of the generated annual maximum rainfall and flood frequency curves (unstandardised, and standardised by the mean have been assessed. Overall, the sensitivity analysis described in this paper suggests that the soil moisture regime, and, in particular, the probability distribution of soil moisture content at the storm arrival time, can be considered as a unifying link between the perturbations to the several parameters and their effects on the standardised and unstandardised ffcs, thus revealing the

  18. Investigation of the SCS-CN initial abstraction ratio using a Monte Carlo simulation for the derived flood frequency curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporali, E.; Chiarello, V.; Galeati, G.

    2014-12-01

    Peak discharges estimates for a given return period are of primary importance in engineering practice for risk assessment and hydraulic structure design. Different statistical methods are chosen here for the assessment of flood frequency curve: one indirect technique based on the extreme rainfall event analysis, the Peak Over Threshold (POT) model and the Annual Maxima approach as direct techniques using river discharge data. In the framework of the indirect method, a Monte Carlo simulation approach is adopted to determine a derived frequency distribution of peak runoff using a probabilistic formulation of the SCS-CN method as stochastic rainfall-runoff model. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate a sample of different runoff events from different stochastic combination of rainfall depth, storm duration, and initial loss inputs. The distribution of the rainfall storm events is assumed to follow the GP law whose parameters are estimated through GEV's parameters of annual maximum data. The evaluation of the initial abstraction ratio is investigated since it is one of the most questionable assumption in the SCS-CN model and plays a key role in river basin characterized by high-permeability soils, mainly governed by infiltration excess mechanism. In order to take into account the uncertainty of the model parameters, this modified approach, that is able to revise and re-evaluate the original value of the initial abstraction ratio, is implemented. In the POT model the choice of the threshold has been an essential issue, mainly based on a compromise between bias and variance. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution fitted to the annual maxima discharges is therefore compared with the Pareto distributed peaks to check the suitability of the frequency of occurrence representation. The methodology is applied to a large dam in the Serchio river basin, located in the Tuscany Region. The application has shown as Monte Carlo simulation technique can be a useful

  19. Influences of Regional Development on Land Use of Nagara Basin and Flood Risk Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banba Michiko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Land developments, and construction of factories or logistic centers should be implemented with the wellconsidered land use plans by taking account of disaster risks to improve the resilience of region to mitigate damages. In this paper, the relationship between regional development and land use from the perspective of flood risk control. Nagara basin in Gifu prefecture (Gifu, Mino, and Seki City, where transportation network has been developed to raise the potential for more development, is selected as a case study site. First, changes of industrial structures of the region and its influences on land use were analyzed. Then, possible flood control measures were summarized, and issues from the land use perspective are analysed

  20. The geomorphic effectiveness of a large flood on the Rio Grande in the Big Bend region: insights on geomorphic controls and post-flood geomorphic response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, David J.; Schmidt, John C.

    2013-01-01

    Since the 1940s, the Rio Grande in the Big Bend region has undergone long periods of channel narrowing, which have been occasionally interrupted by rare, large floods that widen the channel (termed a channel reset). The most recent channel reset occurred in 2008 following a 17-year period of extremely low stream flow and rapid channel narrowing. Flooding was caused by precipitation associated with the remnants of tropical depression Lowell in the Rio Conchos watershed, the largest tributary to the Rio Grande. Floodwaters approached 1500 m3/s (between a 13 and 15 year recurrence interval) and breached levees, inundated communities, and flooded the alluvial valley of the Rio Grande; the wetted width exceeding 2.5 km in some locations. The 2008 flood had the 7th largest magnitude of record, however, conveyed the largest volume of water than any other flood. Because of the narrow pre-flood channel conditions, record flood stages occurred. We used pre- and post-flood aerial photographs, channel and floodplain surveys, and 1-dimensional hydraulic models to quantify the magnitude of channel change, investigate the controls of flood-induced geomorphic changes, and measure the post-flood response of the widened channel. These analyses show that geomorphic changes included channel widening, meander migration, avulsions, extensive bar formation, and vertical floodplain accretion. Reach-averaged channel widening between 26 and 52% occurred, but in some localities exceeded 500%. The degree and style of channel response was related, but not limited to, three factors: 1) bed-load supply and transport, 2) pre-flood channel plan form, and 3) rapid declines in specific stream power downstream of constrictions and areas of high channel bed slope. The post-flood channel response has consisted of channel contraction through the aggradation of the channel bed and the formation of fine-grained benches inset within the widened channel margins. The most significant post-flood geomorphic

  1. Risk of flooding: Activities, parameters and regional peculiarities, Case study: Varbitsa watershed basin, Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lubenov Todor

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available An overview of the activities overtaken during risk of flooding situations, in one of the more often flooding region - the watershed of Varbitsa river (Southeastern part of Bulgaria - has been performed. The main cognitive parameters for risk perception and risk definition, depending on regional, social and historical factors have been examined. The existing information and instructions for mass media communication in relation to the process of interaction in a disaster situation have been discussed. In connection to determination of the risky segments in the basin and plans for announcement, the prevention communication measures have been outlined. On the basis of the Bulgarian normative legislation, the activities concerning organization of communications in a risk-of-disaster situation and mutual aid between authorities, which are part of the Integrated Help System have been indicated. It has been accented on the necessity of a more effective realization of the action plans during natural disasters and especially flooding, in order to improve the partnership between authorities and participants in the communication process during risk-of-flooding situations.

  2. Historical changes in annual peak flows in Maine and implications for flood-frequency analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.

    2010-01-01

    Flood-frequency analyses use statistical methods to compute peak streamflows for selected recurrence intervals— the average number of years between peak flows that are equal to or greater than a specified peak flow. Analyses are based on annual peak flows at a stream. It has long been assumed that the annual peak streamflows used in these computations were stationary (non-changing) over very long periods of time, except in river basins subject to direct effects of human activities, such as urbanization and regulation. Because of the potential effects of global warming on peak flows, the assumption of peak-flow stationarity has recently been questioned. Maine has many streamgages with 50 to 105 years of recorded annual peak streamflows. In this study, this long-term record has been tested for historical flood-frequency stationarity, to provide some insight into future flood frequency. Changes over time in annual instantaneous peak streamflows at 28 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages with long-term data (50 or more years) and relatively complete records were investigated by examining linear trends for each streamgage’s period of record. None of the 28 streamgages had more than 5 years of missing data. Eight streamgages have substantial streamflow regulation. Because previous studies have suggested that changes over time may have occurred as a step change around 1970, step changes between each streamgage’s older record (start year to 1970) and newer record (1971 to 2006) also were computed. The median change over time for all 28 streamgages is an increase of 15.9 percent based on a linear change and an increase of 12.4 percent based on a step change. The median change for the 20 unregulated streamgages is slightly higher than for all 28 streamgages; it is 18.4 percent based on a linear change and 15.0 percent based on a step change. Peak flows with 100- and 5-year recurrence intervals were computed for the 28 streamgages using the full annual peak-flow record

  3. Science and Technology in Regional Flood Disaster Pilots: A GEOSS Capacity Building Imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frye, S. W.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Mandl, D.

    2009-12-01

    This paper describes activities and results of melding basic scientific research in remote sensing with applied science and technology development and infusion to implement regional flood pilot programs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean Region. These regional flood pilots support local and national agency involvement in emergency response and humanitarian assistance activities using orbital, sub-orbital, and in-situ sensors combined with predictive models and socio-economic data to form a cohesive, interoperable set of systems that cover the full cycle of disaster mitigation, warning, response, and recovery for societal benefit. Global satellite coverage is coordinated through the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) in conjunction with the United Nations Space Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER). Other international non-government organizations plus regional and local agencies all play individual roles in exploring the science results, applying the observations and model outputs to form geo-referenced maps that provide improved situational awareness and environmental intelligence for disaster management. The improvements to flood forecast and nowcast outputs include higher resolution drainage and hydrology mapping, improved retrievals for microwave data for soil moisture, plus improved validation from regional ground truth databases. Flow gauge and river depth archive data from local assets provide improved validation of flood model results. Incorporation of atmospheric correction using ground truth data from calibration and validation sites enables better detection and classification of plant species identification and plant stress. Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards for Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) are implemented to provide internet access to satellite tasking, data processing, and distribution/notification in addition to model outputs and other local and regional data sets

  4. Towards flash flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, E.; Jacoby, Y.; Navon, S.; Bet-Halachmi, E.

    2009-04-01

    Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model utilizing radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on five years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent five-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire ten year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood-warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

  5. Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Efrat; Jacoby, Yael; Navon, Shilo; Bet-Halachmi, Erez

    2009-07-01

    Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model which utilizes radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on the 5 years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent 5-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire 10-year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

  6. Effects of the floods on dysentery in north central region of Henan Province, China from 2004 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Wei; Ding, Guoyong; Li, Yifei; Li, Hongkai; Liu, Qiyong; Jiang, Baofa

    2014-11-01

    Zhengzhou, Kaifeng and Xinxiang, the cities in the north central region of Henan Province, suffered from many times floods from 2004 to 2009. We focused on dysentery disease consequences of floods and examined the association between floods and the morbidity of dysentery, based on a longitudinal data. A generalized additive mixed model was conducted to examine the relationship between the monthly morbidity of dysentery and floods from 2004 to 2009 in the study areas. The relative risks (RRs) of the floods risk on the morbidity of dysentery were estimated in each city and the whole region. The RRs on dysentery were 11.47 (95% CI: 8.67-15.33), 1.35 (95% CI: 1.23-3.90) and 2.75 (95% CI: 1.36-4.85) in Kaifeng, Xinxiang and Zhengzhou, respectively. The RR on dysentery in the whole region was 1.66 (95% CI: 1.52-1.82). Our study confirms that flooding has significantly increased the risk of dysentery in the study areas. Additionally, we observed that a sudden and severe flooding can contribute more risk to the morbidity of dysentery than a persistent and moderate flooding. Our findings have significant implications for developing strategies to prevent and reduce health impact of floods. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

    2017-12-01

    Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

  8. Around and about an application of the GAMLSS package to non-stationary flood frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debele, S. E.; Bogdanowicz, E.; Strupczewski, W. G.

    2017-08-01

    The non-stationarity of hydrologic processes due to climate change or human activities is challenging for the researchers and practitioners. However, the practical requirements for taking into account non-stationarity as a support in decision-making procedures exceed the up-to-date development of the theory and the of software. Currently, the most popular and freely available software package that allows for non-stationary statistical analysis is the GAMLSS (generalized additive models for location, scale and shape) package. GAMLSS has been used in a variety of fields. There are also several papers recommending GAMLSS in hydrological problems; however, there are still important issues which have not previously been discussed concerning mainly GAMLSS applicability not only for research and academic purposes, but also in a design practice. In this paper, we present a summary of our experiences in the implementation of GAMLSS to non-stationary flood frequency analysis, highlighting its advantages and pointing out weaknesses with regard to methodological and practical topics.

  9. Spatio-temporal analysis of the extreme precipitation by the L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chongyu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun

    2014-05-01

    The regionalization methods which 'trade space for time' by including several at-site data records in the frequency analysis are an efficient tool to improve the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. With the main aims of improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation and providing scientific and practical background and assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, in this paper, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation; attention was paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which hasn't been considered for most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, Generalized extreme-value (GEV) and Generalized Normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best-fit distributions for most of the sub regions. Estimated quantiles for each region were further obtained. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90% error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those with no inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with return period of 100 years were obtained which indicated that there are two regions with the highest precipitation extremes (southeastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province and the

  10. Flash Flood Risk Perception in an Italian Alpine Region. From Research into Adaptive Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scolobig, A.; de Marchi, B.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are characterised by short lead times and high levels of uncertainty. Adaptive strategies to face them need to take into account not only the physical characteristics of the hydro-geological phenomena, but also peoples' risk perceptions, attitudes and behaviours in case of an emergency. It is quite obvious that a precondition for an effective adaptation, e.g. in the case of a warning, is the awareness of being endangered. At the same time the perceptions of those at risk and their likely actions inform hazard warning strategies and recovery programmes following such events. Usually low risk awareness or "wrong perceptions" of the residents are considered among the causes of an inadequate preparedness or response to flash floods as well as a symptom of a scarce self-protection culture. In this paper we will focus on flood risk perception and on how research on this topic may contribute to design adaptive strategies and give inputs to flood policy decisions. We will report on a flood risk perception study of the population residing in four villages in an Italian Alpine Region (Trentino Alto-Adige), carried out between October 2005 and January 2006. A total of 400 standardised questionnaires were submitted to local residents by face to face interviews. The surveys were preceded by focus groups with officers from agencies in charge of flood risk management and semi-structured and in-depth interviews with policy, scientific and technical experts. Survey results indicated that people are not so worried about hydro-geological phenomena, and think that their community is more endangered than themselves. The knowledge of the territory and danger sources, the unpredictability of flash floods and the feeling of safety induced by structural devices are the main elements which make the difference in shaping residents' perceptions. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of adoption of preparatory measures among residents, together with a general low

  11. Magnitude, frequency, and trends of floods at gaged and ungaged sites in Washington, based on data through water year 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastin, Mark C.; Konrad, Christopher P.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Tecca, Alison E.

    2016-09-20

    An investigation into the magnitude and frequency of floods in Washington State computed the annual exceedance probability (AEP) statistics for 648 U.S. Geological Survey unregulated streamgages in and near the borders of Washington using the recorded annual peak flows through water year 2014. This is an updated report from a previous report published in 1998 that used annual peak flows through the water year 1996. New in this report, a regional skew coefficient was developed for the Pacific Northwest region that includes areas in Oregon, Washington, Idaho and western Montana within the Columbia River drainage basin south of the United States-Canada border, the coastal areas of Oregon and western Washington, and watersheds draining into Puget Sound, Washington. The skew coefficient is an important term in the Log Pearson Type III equation used to define the distribution of the log-transformed annual peaks. The Expected Moments Algorithm was used to fit historical and censored peak-flow data to the log Pearson Type III distribution. A Multiple Grubb-Beck test was employed to censor low outliers of annual peak flows to improve on the frequency distribution. This investigation also includes a section on observed trends in annual peak flows that showed significant trends (p-value Multivariate regression analysis with measured basin characteristics and the AEP statistics at long-term, unregulated, and un-urbanized (defined as drainage basins with less than 5 percent impervious land cover for this investigation) streamgages within Washington and some in Idaho and Oregon that are near the Washington border was used to develop equations to estimate AEP statistics at ungaged basins. Washington was divided into four regions to improve the accuracy of the regression equations; a set of equations for eight selected AEPs and for each region were constructed. Selected AEP statistics included the annual peak flows that equaled or exceeded 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5 and 0.2 percent

  12. Generalized least squares and empirical Bayes estimation in regional partial duration series index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    parameters is inferred from regional data using generalized least squares (GLS) regression. Two different Bayesian T-year event estimators are introduced: a linear estimator that requires only some moments of the prior distributions to be specified and a parametric estimator that is based on specified......A regional estimation procedure that combines the index-flood concept with an empirical Bayes method for inferring regional information is introduced. The model is based on the partial duration series approach with generalized Pareto (GP) distributed exceedances. The prior information of the model...

  13. Derived flood frequency analysis using different model calibration strategies based on various types of rainfall-runoff data - a comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberlandt, U.; Radtke, I.

    2013-08-01

    Derived flood frequency analysis allows to estimate design floods with hydrological modelling for poorly observed basins considering change and taking into account flood protection measures. There are several possible choices about precipitation input, discharge output and consequently regarding the calibration of the model. The objective of this study is to compare different calibration strategies for a hydrological model considering various types of rainfall input and runoff output data sets. Event based and continuous observed hourly rainfall data as well as disaggregated daily rainfall and stochastically generated hourly rainfall data are used as input for the model. As output short hourly and longer daily continuous flow time series as well as probability distributions of annual maximum peak flow series are employed. The performance of the strategies is evaluated using the obtained different model parameter sets for continuous simulation of discharge in an independent validation period and by comparing the model derived flood frequency distributions with the observed one. The investigations are carried out for three mesoscale catchments in Northern Germany with the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show that: (i) the same type of precipitation input data should be used for calibration and application of the hydrological model, (ii) a model calibrated using a small sample of extreme values works quite well for the simulation of continuous time series with moderate length but not vice versa, (iii) the best performance with small uncertainty is obtained when stochastic precipitation data and the observed probability distribution of peak flows are used for model calibration. This outcome suggests to calibrate a hydrological model directly on probability distributions of observed peak flows using stochastic rainfall as input if its purpose is the application for derived flood frequency analysis.

  14. Hydrological model calibration for derived flood frequency analysis using stochastic rainfall and probability distributions of peak flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberlandt, U.; Radtke, I.

    2014-01-01

    Derived flood frequency analysis allows the estimation of design floods with hydrological modeling for poorly observed basins considering change and taking into account flood protection measures. There are several possible choices regarding precipitation input, discharge output and consequently the calibration of the model. The objective of this study is to compare different calibration strategies for a hydrological model considering various types of rainfall input and runoff output data sets and to propose the most suitable approach. Event based and continuous, observed hourly rainfall data as well as disaggregated daily rainfall and stochastically generated hourly rainfall data are used as input for the model. As output, short hourly and longer daily continuous flow time series as well as probability distributions of annual maximum peak flow series are employed. The performance of the strategies is evaluated using the obtained different model parameter sets for continuous simulation of discharge in an independent validation period and by comparing the model derived flood frequency distributions with the observed one. The investigations are carried out for three mesoscale catchments in northern Germany with the hydrological model HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System). The results show that (I) the same type of precipitation input data should be used for calibration and application of the hydrological model, (II) a model calibrated using a small sample of extreme values works quite well for the simulation of continuous time series with moderate length but not vice versa, and (III) the best performance with small uncertainty is obtained when stochastic precipitation data and the observed probability distribution of peak flows are used for model calibration. This outcome suggests to calibrate a hydrological model directly on probability distributions of observed peak flows using stochastic rainfall as input if its purpose is the

  15. Flood Hazard Recurrence Frequencies for C-, F-, E-, S-, H-, Y-, and Z-Areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.F.

    1999-01-01

    A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for Savannah River Site facilities. This report presents the method used to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for C-, F-, E-, H-, S-, Y-, and Z-Areas due to runoff from the Upper Three Runs and Fourmile Branch basins

  16. Internal flood analysis at Fermi 2 using a component-based frequency calculation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, J.C.; Hou, Y.M.; Ramirez, J.V.; Page, E.M.

    2004-01-01

    An analysis to identify potential accident sequences involving internal floods at Fermi Unit 2 was completed to fulfill the individual plant examination requirements. Floods can be significant core damage scenarios if they cause an initiating event and a common mode failure of critical systems. (author)

  17. The notions of resilience in spatial planning for drought - flood coexistence (DFC) at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trong Hoa, Nguyen; Vinh, Nguyen Quoc

    2018-04-01

    The notions of urban resilience and resilient city has been developed in the 2000s [1], four decades since the first concept of ecological resilience was originally introduced in the 1970s by ecologist C.S. Holling [2]. However, they have attracted great attentions and interests, in both academia and urban governance, then in planning practice over recent years. The first two sections of this paper examine the term resilience in ecological systems, urban systems, in spatial planning and in urban design. Specific attention of the paper, introduced in the third part, is to investigate resilience in the context of drought-flood coexistence (DFC), revolving two key objects and their interactions: DFC and urban at regional scale. Flood and drought events, in their turns intertwine in natural correlation, which is also reviewed. These relationships are literally investigated, to prove that they interplay mutually with each other, and that once a city develops in relation with water cycle at a regional context, in arid zone, not only hydrological drought could be regionally decreased, but human-induced floods could be ecologically regulated. The study concludes in the fourth, together with lessons from relevant case studies in America, China, with some principles on spatial planning, resilient/adaptive to DFC, which could be ecologically managed in correlation with urban development on a sustainable pathway.

  18. Flash Flood Prediction by Coupling KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS Models for Tropical Regions of Northern Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Quang Nguyen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Northern Vietnam is a region prone to heavy flash flooding events. These often have devastating effects on the environment, cause economic damage and, in the worst case scenario, cost human lives. As their frequency and severity are likely to increase in the future, procedures have to be established to cope with this threat. As the prediction of potential flash floods represents one crucial element in this circumstance, we will present an approach that combines the two models KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS in order to accurately predict their occurrence. We used a documented event on 23 June 2011 in the Nam Khat and the larger adjacent Nam Kim watershed to calibrate the coupled model approach. Afterward, we evaluated the performance of the coupled models in predicting flow velocity (FV, water levels (WL, discharge (Q and streamflow power (P during the 3–5 days following the event, using two different precipitation datasets from the global spectral model (GSM and the high resolution model (HRM. Our results show that the estimated Q and WL closely matched observed data with a Nash–Sutcliffe simulation efficiency coefficient (NSE of around 0.93 and a coefficient of determination (R2 at above 0.96. The resulting analyses reveal strong relationships between river geometry and FV, WL and P. Although there were some minor errors in forecast results, the model-predicted Q and WL corresponded well to the gauged data.

  19. Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    The central purpose of this report is to present methods : for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on : urban and small, rural streams in the Southeast United States : with particular focus on Georgia, South Carolina, and North : Carolin...

  20. Understanding Flash Flood Generation in the Arid Region of the Dead Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, R.; Hennig, H.; Rödiger, T.; Laronne, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    The arid region of the Dead Sea is prone by flash floods. Such flash floods in (semi-) arid regions are impressive. Generated within minutes, the peak unit discharge can be as high as 25 m³/s km². Floods are the main mechanism supplying water to alluvial aquifers, forming fluvial landscapes including canyons and often causing damage to humans, infrastructure, industry and tourism. Existing hydrological models in this region focus on peak discharges. However, these models are often based on simplified concepts and/or on concepts which were developed for humid regions. To more closely relate such models to local conditions, processes within catchments where floods occur require consideration. Therefore, a measurement network of rain gauges and level loggers to monitor runoff was installed in the beginning of the 2015/16 hydrological season in the tributaries of Wadi Arugot. The Arugot catchment is one of the largest ephemeral Wadis draining to the western shoreline of the Dead Sea at 450 m bsl. Due to the high gradient in elevation, the climate within the basin ranges from semiarid in the Judean Mountains, to hyper-arid near the Dead Sea with respective mean annual rainfall of 650 and 50 mm. The installed rain gauge network in the mountains is more dense compared to the Dead Sea area. Arid to semiarid catchments have different runoff generation processes compared to humid regions due local storm rainfall, low density of vegetation cover as well as patchy and shallow soil. These characteristics limit the contribution of groundwater flow, saturated overland flow and shallow subsurface flow, and therefore Hortonian overland flow is the most important contributor to overland flow. First analyses of the runoff data have shown that the storage capacity in the mountain area is lower compared to the more arid region. This is an evidence of high transmission losses in the coarse gravel wadi bed, therefore having a high permeability. The rain event duration and the amount of

  1. Evaluation of the expected moments algorithm and a multiple low-outlier test for flood frequency analysis at streamgaging stations in Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paretti, Nicholas V.; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Cohn, Timothy A.

    2014-01-01

    Flooding is among the costliest natural disasters in terms of loss of life and property in Arizona, which is why the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is crucial for proper structural design and accurate floodplain mapping. Current guidelines for flood frequency analysis in the United States are described in Bulletin 17B (B17B), yet since B17B’s publication in 1982 (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), several improvements have been proposed as updates for future guidelines. Two proposed updates are the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) to accommodate historical and censored data, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck (MGB) low-outlier test. The current guidelines use a standard Grubbs-Beck (GB) method to identify low outliers, changing the determination of the moment estimators because B17B uses a conditional probability adjustment to handle low outliers while EMA censors the low outliers. B17B and EMA estimates are identical if no historical information or censored or low outliers are present in the peak-flow data. EMA with MGB (EMA-MGB) test was compared to the standard B17B (B17B-GB) method for flood frequency analysis at 328 streamgaging stations in Arizona. The methods were compared using the relative percent difference (RPD) between annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), goodness-of-fit assessments, random resampling procedures, and Monte Carlo simulations. The AEPs were calculated and compared using both station skew and weighted skew. Streamgaging stations were classified by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) qualification codes, used to denote historical and censored peak-flow data, to better understand the effect that nonstandard flood information has on the flood frequency analysis for each method. Streamgaging stations were also grouped according to geographic flood regions and analyzed separately to better understand regional differences caused by physiography and climate. The B

  2. Geometric and frequency EMI sounding of estuarine earthen flood defence embankments in Ireland using 1D inversion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viganotti, Matteo; Jackson, Ruth; Krahn, Hartmut; Dyer, Mark

    2013-05-01

    Earthen flood defence embankments are linear structures, raised above the flood plain, that are commonly used as flood defences in rural settings; these are often relatively old structures constructed using locally garnered material and of which little is known in terms of design and construction. Alarmingly, it is generally reported that a number of urban developments have expanded to previously rural areas; hence, acquiring knowledge about the flood defences protecting these areas has risen significantly in the agendas of basin and asset managers. This paper focusses, by reporting two case studies, on electromagnetic induction (EMI) methods that would efficiently complement routine visual inspections and would represent a first step to more detailed investigations. Evaluation of the results is presented by comparison with ERT profiles and intrusive investigation data. The EM data, acquired using a GEM-2 apparatus for frequency sounding and an EM-31 apparatus for geometrical sounding, has been handled using the prototype eGMS software tool, being developed by the eGMS international research consortium; the depth sounding data interpretation was assisted by 1D inversions obtained with the EM1DFM software developed by the University of British Columbia. Although both sounding methods showed some limitations, the models obtained were consistent with ERT models and the techniques were useful screening methods for the identification of areas of interest, such as material interfaces or potential seepage areas, within the embankment structure: 1D modelling improved the rapid assessment of earthen flood defence embankments in an estuarine environment; evidence that EMI sounding could play an important role as a monitoring tool or as a first step towards more detailed investigations.

  3. Landsliding and flooding event triggered by heavy rains in the Rize region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yalcin, Ali; Kavurmaci, M. Murat

    2013-04-01

    Rize province has been significantly damaged by frequent landslides and floods which are caused by severe rainfalls and result in many casualties. The area is prone to landslides because of the climate conditions, geologic, and land cover characteristics of the region. The most recent landslide occurred on August 26, 2010 in Gundogdu town. The landslides have caused large numbers of casualties and huge economic losses in the region. Thirteen people died, twenty houses collapsed, more than a hundred houses damaged, and one hundred fifty vehicles were damaged in the Gundogdu landslide. Flood event is often seen in the region of Rize, due to continuous rainfall. Floods cause huge loss of life and property in this region. Rainfall is the most frequent landslide-triggering factor in East Black Sea region, Turkey, especially Rize region. Rize is the rainiest city of Turkey. Total annual precipitation is over 2300 mm, and precipitation is equally distributed in each month. However, in August 26, 166.5 mm precipitation rained within 24 hours in the region and this rainstorm caused great damage. The intensity rainfall periods were become as an indicator of landslide activity. It is very important that the presence of suitable lithologic units for occurring landslides. There are appropriate materials to contributed constitution of landslides in the study area; completely weathered dacite. In addition, intensity land cover types as tea plantations have been blocked surface flows and rainfall is able to quickly penetrate into the soil through open tension cracks that appear in the landslide head and in stretching zones. According to the results of the analysis, the study area has been overlaid tea garden 70 % percentage approximately. Furthermore, the landslide risks have increased by devastation of land cover in this region. In this region, over-steepened slopes, slope saturation in areas of heavy rainfall, and removal of slope vegetation can also increase landslide potential

  4. The impact of flooding on people living with HIV: a case study from the Ohangwena Region, Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Anthonj

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Floods are a disaster situation for all affected populations and especially for vulnerable groups within communities such as children, orphans, women, and people with chronic diseases such as HIV and AIDS. They need functioning health care, sanitation and hygiene, safe water, and healthy food supply, and are critically dependent on their social care and support networks. A study carried out in the Ohangwena region, Namibia, where HIV prevalence is high and extensive flooding frequently occurs, aims to provide a deeper understanding of the impact that flooding has on people living with HIV (PLWHIV as well as on HIV service providers in the region. Design: The qualitative research applying grounded theory included semi-structured interviews with PLWHIV, focus group discussions with HIV service providers, and a national feedback meeting. The findings were interpreted using the sustainable livelihoods framework, the natural hazard research approach, and health behaviour theories. Results: The study reveals that flooding poses major problems to PLWHIV in terms of their everyday lives, affecting livelihoods, work, income, and living conditions. The factors threatening them under normal conditions – poverty, malnutrition, unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene, limited access to health facilities, a weak health status, and stigma – are intensified by flood-related breakdown of infrastructure, insecurity, malnutrition, and diseases evolving over the course of a flood. A potential dual risk exists for their health: the increased risk both of infection and disease due to the inaccessibility of health services and antiretroviral treatment. A HIV and Flooding Framework was developed to display the results. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that vulnerabilities and health risks of PLWHIV will increase in a disaster situation like flooding if access to HIV prevention, treatment, care and support are not addressed and ensured. The findings and

  5. The impact of flooding on people living with HIV: a case study from the Ohangwena Region, Namibia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthonj, Carmen; Nkongolo, Odon T; Schmitz, Peter; Hango, Johannes N; Kistemann, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Floods are a disaster situation for all affected populations and especially for vulnerable groups within communities such as children, orphans, women, and people with chronic diseases such as HIV and AIDS. They need functioning health care, sanitation and hygiene, safe water, and healthy food supply, and are critically dependent on their social care and support networks. A study carried out in the Ohangwena region, Namibia, where HIV prevalence is high and extensive flooding frequently occurs, aims to provide a deeper understanding of the impact that flooding has on people living with HIV (PLWHIV) as well as on HIV service providers in the region. The qualitative research applying grounded theory included semi-structured interviews with PLWHIV, focus group discussions with HIV service providers, and a national feedback meeting. The findings were interpreted using the sustainable livelihoods framework, the natural hazard research approach, and health behaviour theories. The study reveals that flooding poses major problems to PLWHIV in terms of their everyday lives, affecting livelihoods, work, income, and living conditions. The factors threatening them under normal conditions - poverty, malnutrition, unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene, limited access to health facilities, a weak health status, and stigma - are intensified by flood-related breakdown of infrastructure, insecurity, malnutrition, and diseases evolving over the course of a flood. A potential dual risk exists for their health: the increased risk both of infection and disease due to the inaccessibility of health services and antiretroviral treatment. A HIV and Flooding Framework was developed to display the results. This study demonstrates that vulnerabilities and health risks of PLWHIV will increase in a disaster situation like flooding if access to HIV prevention, treatment, care and support are not addressed and ensured. The findings and the HIV and Flooding Framework are not specific to Ohangwena and

  6. Robust detection of discordant sites in regional frequency analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neykov, N.M.; Neytchev, P.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Todorov, V.K.

    2007-01-01

    The discordancy measure in terms of the sample L?moment ratios (L?CV, L?skewness, L?kurtosis) of the at?site data is widely recommended in the screening process of atypical sites in the regional frequency analysis (RFA). The sample mean and the covariance matrix of the L?moments ratios, on which the

  7. Duration of Parana magmatism and implications for the evolution and source regions of continental flood basalts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mantovani, M.S.M.; Stewart, K.; Turner, S.; Hawkesworth, C.J.

    1995-01-01

    Duration of Continental Floods Basalts magmatism has generally been considered to be extremely short. Ar-Ar data for different magma type, over a broad region within Parana, demonstrate a duration of 10 Ma, an order of magnitude greater than the usually accepted duration of magmatism. The dating method included rigorous geochemical selection tests, to discard altered samples, combined with the analysis of laser spot technique using the isochron approach. This methodology allows discrimination between rocks which yield precise ages and those which are too altered or heterogeneous. The agreement between the determined age and the relative stratigraphic position of samples supports the above statement. 4 figs

  8. Duration of Parana magmatism and implications for the evolution and source regions of continental flood basalts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mantovani, M.S.M. [Sao Paulo Univ., SP (Brazil). Inst. Astronomico e Geofisico; Stewart, K.; Turner, S.; Hawkesworth, C.J. [Open Univ., Milton Keynes (United Kingdom). Dept. of Earth Sciences

    1995-12-31

    Duration of Continental Floods Basalts magmatism has generally been considered to be extremely short. Ar-Ar data for different magma type, over a broad region within Parana, demonstrate a duration of 10 Ma, an order of magnitude greater than the usually accepted duration of magmatism. The dating method included rigorous geochemical selection tests, to discard altered samples, combined with the analysis of laser spot technique using the isochron approach. This methodology allows discrimination between rocks which yield precise ages and those which are too altered or heterogeneous. The agreement between the determined age and the relative stratigraphic position of samples supports the above statement. 4 figs.

  9. Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

  10. The weighted function method: A handy tool for flood frequency analysis or just a curiosity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Strupczewski, Witold G.

    2018-04-01

    The idea of the Weighted Function (WF) method for estimation of Pearson type 3 (Pe3) distribution introduced by Ma in 1984 has been revised and successfully applied for shifted inverse Gaussian (IGa3) distribution. Also the conditions of WF applicability to a shifted distribution have been formulated. The accuracy of WF flood quantiles for both Pe3 and IGa3 distributions was assessed by Monte Caro simulations under the true and false distribution assumption versus the maximum likelihood (MLM), moment (MOM) and L-moments (LMM) methods. Three datasets of annual peak flows of Polish catchments serve the case studies to compare the results of the WF, MOM, MLM and LMM performance for the real flood data. For the hundred-year flood the WF method revealed the explicit superiority only over the MLM surpassing the MOM and especially LMM both for the true and false distributional assumption with respect to relative bias and relative mean root square error values. Generally, the WF method performs well and for hydrological sample size and constitutes good alternative for the estimation of the flood upper quantiles.

  11. August, 2002 - floods events, affected areas revitalisation and prevention for the future in the central Bohemian region, Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bina, L.; Vacha, F.; Vodova, J.

    2003-04-01

    Central Bohemian Region is located in a shape of a ring surrounding the capitol of Prague. Its total territorial area is 11.014 sq.km and population of 1 130.000 inhabitants. According to EU nomenclature of regional statistical units, the Central Bohemian Region is classified as an independent NUTS II. Bohemia's biggest rivers, Vltava and Labe form the region's backbone dividing it along a north-south line, besides that there are Sazava and Berounka, the two big headwaters of Vltava, which flow through the region and there also are some cascade man made lakes and 2 important big dams - Orlik and Slapy on the Vltava River in the area of the region. Overflowing of these rivers and their feeders including cracking of high-water dams during the floods in August 2002 caused total or partial destruction or damage of more than 200 towns and villages and total losses to the extend of 450 mil. EUR. The worst impact was on damaged or destroyed human dwellings, social infrastructure (schools, kindergartens, humanitarian facilities) and technical infrastructure (roads, waterworks, power distribution). Also businesses were considerably damaged including transport terminals in the area of river ports. Flowage of Spolana Neratovice chemical works caused critical environmental havoc. Regional crisis staff with regional Governor in the lead worked continuously during the floods and a regional integrated rescue system was subordinated to it. Due to the huge extent of the floods the crisis staff coordinated its work with central bodies of state including the Government and single "power" resorts (army, interior, transport). Immediately after floods a regional - controlled management was set up including an executive body for regional revitalisation which is connected to state coordinating resort - Ministry for Local Development, EU sources and humanitarian aid. In addition to a program of regional revitalisation additional preventive flood control programs are being developed

  12. Frequency of central nervous system tumors in delta region, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled R Zalata

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and Aim of Work: Central nervous system (CNS tumors represent a major public health problem, and their epidemiological data in Egypt have been rather incomplete except for some regional reports. There are no available frequency-based data on CNS tumors in our locality. The objective of this study was to estimate the frequency of CNS tumors in east delta region, Egypt. Materials and Methods: The data were collected during the 8-year period from January 1999 to December 2007 from Pathology Department, Mansoura University, and other referred pathology labs. Examination of HandE stained sections from retrieved paraffin blocks were done in all cases for histopathologic categorization of C.N.S. tumors. Immunohistochemical studies were applied to confirm final histopathologic diagnosis in problematic cases. Results: Intracranial tumors represented 86.7% of cases in comparison to only 13.3% for spinal tumors. Gliomas were the CNS tumors of the highest frequency (35.2%, followed by meningioma (25.6%, pituitary adenoma (11.6% and nerve sheath tumors (6.6%. 10.25% of tumors were of children <15 years. Conclusion: This study provides the largest series of the relative frequency of CNS tumors in Delta region in Egypt till now and may help to give insight into the epidemiology of CNS tumors in our locality.

  13. A regional distributed hydrological modelling approach for flash-flood understanding and experimental design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braud, Isabelle; Anquetin, Sandrine; Roux, Hélène; Vannier, Olivier; Maubourguet, Marie-Madeleine; Viallet, Pierre; Boudevillain, Brice; Dartus, Denis; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods represent the most destructive natural hazard in the Mediterranean region, causing around one billion Euros worth of damage in France over the last two decades. Flash floods are associated with extreme and rare rainfall events and usually occur in ungauged river basins. Amongst them, small-ungauged catchments are recognized as the most vulnerable to storm driven flash floods. In order to limit the damages to the population, there is a need to improve our understanding and the simulation tools for these events. In order to provide information over a whole region, hydrological models applicable at this scale, and able to take into account the spatial variability of rainfall and catchment characteristics, must be proposed. This paper presents such a regional distributed approach applied to the 8-9 September 2002 extreme event which affected the Gard region in the south-east of France. In order to identify the variables and catchment characteristics which require improved knowledge, two distributed hydrological models were set up on a set of catchments, with sizes ranging from 2.5 to 99 km2. The models differ in terms of spatial discretization and process representation. They were forced using radar data with a 1 km2 spatial resolution and 5 min time step. The model parameters were specified using the available information, namely a digital terrain model and a soil data base. The latter provides information about soil texture, soil porosity and soil depths. Soil hydraulic properties were defined using pedo-transfer functions. Data from a post-flood field survey of maximum peak discharge were used to assess the quality of the simulations. A reasonable agreement between modeled and observed values was obtained. Sensitivity studies were then performed to asses the respective impact of rainfall estimation and soil variability on the simulated discharge. The analysis shows that rainfall remains the first controlling factor of flash flood dynamics and that high

  14. A relative vulnerability estimation of flood disaster using data envelopment analysis in the Dongting Lake region of Hunan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-H. Li

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The vulnerability to flood disaster is addressed by a number of studies. It is of great importance to analyze the vulnerability of different regions and various periods to enable the government to make policies for distributing relief funds and help the regions to improve their capabilities against disasters, yet a recognized paradigm for such studies seems missing. Vulnerability is defined and evaluated through either physical or economic–ecological perspectives depending on the field of the researcher concerned. The vulnerability, however, is the core of both systems as it entails systematic descriptions of flood severities or disaster management units. The research mentioned often has a development perspective, and in this article we decompose the overall flood system into several factors: disaster driver, disaster environment, disaster bearer, and disaster intensity, and take the interaction mechanism among all factors as an indispensable function. The conditions of flood disaster components are demonstrated with disaster driver risk level, disaster environment stability level and disaster bearer sensitivity, respectively. The flood system vulnerability is expressed as vulnerability = f(risk, stability, sensitivity. Based on the theory, data envelopment analysis method (DEA is used to detail the relative vulnerability's spatiotemporal variation of a flood disaster system and its components in the Dongting Lake region. The study finds that although a flood disaster system's relative vulnerability is closely associated with its components' conditions, the flood system and its components have a different vulnerability level. The overall vulnerability is not the aggregation of its components' vulnerability. On a spatial scale, zones central and adjacent to Dongting Lake and/or river zones are characterized with very high vulnerability. Zones with low and very low vulnerability are mainly distributed in the periphery of the Dongting Lake region

  15. A relative vulnerability estimation of flood disaster using data envelopment analysis in the Dongting Lake region of Hunan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, C.-H.; Li, N.; Wu, L.-C.; Hu, A.-J.

    2013-07-01

    The vulnerability to flood disaster is addressed by a number of studies. It is of great importance to analyze the vulnerability of different regions and various periods to enable the government to make policies for distributing relief funds and help the regions to improve their capabilities against disasters, yet a recognized paradigm for such studies seems missing. Vulnerability is defined and evaluated through either physical or economic-ecological perspectives depending on the field of the researcher concerned. The vulnerability, however, is the core of both systems as it entails systematic descriptions of flood severities or disaster management units. The research mentioned often has a development perspective, and in this article we decompose the overall flood system into several factors: disaster driver, disaster environment, disaster bearer, and disaster intensity, and take the interaction mechanism among all factors as an indispensable function. The conditions of flood disaster components are demonstrated with disaster driver risk level, disaster environment stability level and disaster bearer sensitivity, respectively. The flood system vulnerability is expressed as vulnerability = f(risk, stability, sensitivity). Based on the theory, data envelopment analysis method (DEA) is used to detail the relative vulnerability's spatiotemporal variation of a flood disaster system and its components in the Dongting Lake region. The study finds that although a flood disaster system's relative vulnerability is closely associated with its components' conditions, the flood system and its components have a different vulnerability level. The overall vulnerability is not the aggregation of its components' vulnerability. On a spatial scale, zones central and adjacent to Dongting Lake and/or river zones are characterized with very high vulnerability. Zones with low and very low vulnerability are mainly distributed in the periphery of the Dongting Lake region. On a temporal

  16. Hydrologic Modeling and Flood Frequency Analysis for Ordinary High Water Mark Delineation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    variable ); X, Y, and Z are watershed or climatic characteristics used as independent varia - bles; and a, b, c, and d are regression coefficients. The number...use to characterize the variability of streamflow, and recur- rence intervals provide context for understanding the OHWM. This docu- ment tests...1.01-year to 32-year recurrence-interval floods. The variability in bankfull discharge recurrence intervals highlights the highly variable

  17. Frequency of Flooding Along U.S. Coasts, 2010-2015 Versus 1950-1959

    Science.gov (United States)

    This map shows the average number of days per year in which coastal waters rose above the local threshold for minor flooding at 27 sites along the U.S. coast. Each small bar graph compares the first decade of widespread measurements (the 1950s in orange) with the most recent decade (the 2010s in purple). For more information: www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators

  18. Regional Interdependence in Adaptation to Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacey, M. T.; Lubell, M.; Hummel, M.; Wang, R. Q.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Herdman, L.; Pozdnukhov, A.; Sheehan, M.

    2017-12-01

    Projections of sea level rise may differ in the pace of change, but there is clear consensus that coastal communities will be facing more frequent and severe flooding events in the coming century. As communities adapt to future conditions, infrastructure systems will be developed, modified and abandoned, with important consequences for services and resilience. Whether action or inaction is pursued, the decisions made by an individual community regarding a single infrastructure system have implications that extend spatially and temporally due to geographic and infrastructure system interactions. At the same time, there are a number of barriers to collective or coordinated action that inhibit regional solutions. This interplay between local actions and regional responses is one of the great challenges facing decision-makers grappling with both local and regional climate-change adaptation. In this talk, I present case studies of the San Francisco Bay Area that examine how shoreline infrastructure, transporation sytems and decision-making networks interact to define the regional response to local actions and the local response to regional actions. I will characterize the barriers that exist to regional solutions, and characterize three types of interdependence that may motivate decision-makers to overcome those barriers. Using these examples, I will discuss the importance of interdisciplinary analyses that integrate the natural sciences, engineering and the social science to climate change adaptation more generally.

  19. Deciphering flood frequency curves from a coupled human-nature system perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, H. Y.; Abeshu, G. W.; Wang, W.; Ye, S.; Guo, J.; Bloeschl, G.; Leung, L. R.

    2017-12-01

    Most previous studies and applications in deriving or applying FFC are underpinned by the stationarity assumption. To examine the theoretical robustness of this basic assumption, we analyzed the observed FFCs at hundreds of catchments in the contiguous United States along the gradients of climate conditions and human influences. The shape of FFCs is described using three similarity indices: mean annual floods (MAF), coefficient of variance (CV), and a seasonality index defined using circular statistics. The characteristics of catchments are quantified with a small number of dimensionless indices, including particularly: 1) the climatic aridity index, AI, which is a measure of the competition between energy and water availability; 2) reservoir impact index, defined as the total upstream reservoir storage capacity normalized by the annual streamflow volume. The linkages between these two sets of indices are then explored based on a combination of mathematical derivations of the Budyko formula, simple but physically based reservoir operation models, and other auxiliary data. It is found that the shape of FFCs shifts from arid to humid climate, and from periods with weak human influences to periods with strong influences. The seasonality of floods is found to be largely controlled by the synchronization between the seasonal cycles of precipitation and solar radiation in pristine catchments, but also by the reservoir regulation capacity in managed catchments. Our findings may help improve flood-risk assessment and mitigation in both natural and regulated river systems across various climate gradients.

  20. Assessment of parameter regionalization methods for modeling flash floods in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, Silvan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Haijing

    2017-04-01

    Rainstorm flash floods are a common and serious phenomenon during the summer months in many hilly and mountainous regions of China. For this study, we develop a modeling strategy for simulating flood events in small river basins of four Chinese provinces (Shanxi, Henan, Beijing, Fujian). The presented research is part of preliminary investigations for the development of a national operational model for predicting and forecasting hydrological extremes in basins of size 10 - 2000 km2, whereas most of these basins are ungauged or poorly gauged. The project is supported by the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research within the framework of the national initiative for flood prediction and early warning system for mountainous regions in China (research project SHZH-IWHR-73). We use the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as implemented in the Java modeling framework Object Modeling System (OMS). PRMS can operate at both daily and storm timescales, switching between the two using a precipitation threshold. This functionality allows the model to perform continuous simulations over several years and to switch to the storm mode to simulate storm response in greater detail. The model was set up for fifteen watersheds for which hourly precipitation and runoff data were available. First, automatic calibration based on the Shuffled Complex Evolution method was applied to different hydrological response unit (HRU) configurations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was used as assessment criteria, whereas only runoff data from storm events were considered. HRU configurations reflect the drainage-basin characteristics and depend on assumptions regarding drainage density and minimum HRU size. We then assessed the sensitivity of optimal parameters to different HRU configurations. Finally, the transferability to other watersheds of optimal model parameters that were not sensitive to HRU configurations was evaluated. Model calibration for the 15

  1. Flood Hazard Assessment along the Western Regions of Saudi Arabia using GIS-based Morphometry and Remote Sensing Techniques

    KAUST Repository

    Shi, Qianwen

    2014-12-01

    Flash flooding, as a result of excessive rainfall in a short period, is considered as one of the worst environmental hazards in arid regions. Areas located in the western provinces of Saudi Arabia have experienced catastrophic floods. Geomorphologic evaluation of hydrographic basins provides necessary information to define basins with flood hazard potential in arid regions, especially where long-term field observations are scarce and limited. Six large basins (from North to South: Yanbu, Rabigh, Khulais, El-Qunfza, Baish and Jizan) were selected for this study because they have large surface areas and they encompass high capacity dams at their downstream areas. Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques were applied to conduct detailed morphometric analysis of these basins. The six basins were further divided into 203 sub-basins based on their drainage density. The morphometric parameters of the six basins and their associated 203 sub-basins were calculated to estimate the degree of flood hazard by combining normalized values of these parameters. Thus, potential flood hazard maps were produced from the estimated hazard degree. Furthermore, peak runoff discharge of the six basins and sub-basins were estimated using the Snyder Unit Hydrograph and three empirical models (Nouh’s model, Farquharson’s model and Al-Subai’s model) developed for Saudi Arabia. Additionally, recommendations for flood mitigation plans and water management schemes along these basins were further discussed.

  2. Optimal supplementary frequency controller design using the wind farm frequency model and controller parameters stability region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toulabi, Mohammadreza; Bahrami, Shahab; Ranjbar, Ali Mohammad

    2018-03-01

    In most of the existing studies, the frequency response in the variable speed wind turbines (VSWTs) is simply realized by changing the torque set-point via appropriate inputs such as frequency deviations signal. However, effective dynamics and systematic process design have not been comprehensively discussed yet. Accordingly, this paper proposes a proportional-derivative frequency controller and investigates its performance in a wind farm consisting of several VSWTs. A band-pass filter is deployed before the proposed controller to avoid responding to either steady state frequency deviations or high rate of change of frequency. To design the controller, the frequency model of the wind farm is first characterized. The proposed controller is then designed based on the obtained open loop system. The stability region associated with the controller parameters is analytically determined by decomposing the closed-loop system's characteristic polynomial into the odd and even parts. The performance of the proposed controller is evaluated through extensive simulations in MATLAB/Simulink environment in a power system comprising a high penetration of VSWTs equipped with the proposed controller. Finally, based on the obtained feasible area and appropriate objective function, the optimal values associated with the controller parameters are determined using the genetic algorithm (GA). Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt flood events in middle and high latitudes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, C.; Huang, Q.; Chen, T.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    In the context of global warming, the snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area of the middle and high latitudes are increasingly frequent and create severe casualties and property damages. Carrying out the prediction and risk assessment of the snowmelt flood is of great importance in the water resources management, the flood warning and prevention. Based on the remote sensing and GIS techniques, the relationships of the variables influencing the snowmelt flood such as the snow area, the snow depth, the air temperature, the precipitation, the land topography and land covers are analyzed and a prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt floods is developed. This model analyzes and predicts the flood submerging area, flood depth, flood grade, and the damages of different underlying surfaces in the study area in a given time period based on the estimation of snowmelt amount, the snowmelt runoff, the direction and velocity of the flood. Then it was used to predict a snowmelt flood event in the Ertis River Basin in northern Xinjiang, China, during March and June, 2005 and to assess its damages including the damages of roads, transmission lines, settlements caused by the floods and the possible landslides using the hydrological and meteorological data, snow parameter data, DEM data and land use data. A comparison was made between the prediction results from this model and observation data including the flood measurement and its disaster loss data, which suggests that this model performs well in predicting the strength and impact area of snowmelt flood and its damage assessment. This model will be helpful for the prediction and damage assessment of snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area in the middle and high latitudes in spring, which has great social and economic significance because it provides a relatively reliable method for snowmelt flood prediction and reduces the possible damages caused by snowmelt floods.

  4. Surface Mining and Reclamation Effects on Flood Response of Watersheds in the Central Appalachian Plateau Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, J. R.; Lookingbill, T. R.; McCormick, B.; Townsend, P. A.; Eshleman, K. N.

    2009-01-01

    Surface mining of coal and subsequent reclamation represent the dominant land use change in the central Appalachian Plateau (CAP) region of the United States. Hydrologic impacts of surface mining have been studied at the plot scale, but effects at broader scales have not been explored adequately. Broad-scale classification of reclaimed sites is difficult because standing vegetation makes them nearly indistinguishable from alternate land uses. We used a land cover data set that accurately maps surface mines for a 187-km2 watershed within the CAP. These land cover data, as well as plot-level data from within the watershed, are used with HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran) to estimate changes in flood response as a function of increased mining. Results show that the rate at which flood magnitude increases due to increased mining is linear, with greater rates observed for less frequent return intervals. These findings indicate that mine reclamation leaves the landscape in a condition more similar to urban areas rather than does simple deforestation, and call into question the effectiveness of reclamation in terms of returning mined areas to the hydrological state that existed before mining.

  5. Predicting nonstationary flood frequencies: Evidence supports an updated stationarity thesis in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke, Adam; Vrugt, Jasper A.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Matthew, Richard; Sanders, Brett F.

    2017-07-01

    Nonstationary extreme value analysis (NEVA) can improve the statistical representation of observed flood peak distributions compared to stationary (ST) analysis, but management of flood risk relies on predictions of out-of-sample distributions for which NEVA has not been comprehensively evaluated. In this study, we apply split-sample testing to 1250 annual maximum discharge records in the United States and compare the predictive capabilities of NEVA relative to ST extreme value analysis using a log-Pearson Type III (LPIII) distribution. The parameters of the LPIII distribution in the ST and nonstationary (NS) models are estimated from the first half of each record using Bayesian inference. The second half of each record is reserved to evaluate the predictions under the ST and NS models. The NS model is applied for prediction by (1) extrapolating the trend of the NS model parameters throughout the evaluation period and (2) using the NS model parameter values at the end of the fitting period to predict with an updated ST model (uST). Our analysis shows that the ST predictions are preferred, overall. NS model parameter extrapolation is rarely preferred. However, if fitting period discharges are influenced by physical changes in the watershed, for example from anthropogenic activity, the uST model is strongly preferred relative to ST and NS predictions. The uST model is therefore recommended for evaluation of current flood risk in watersheds that have undergone physical changes. Supporting information includes a MATLAB® program that estimates the (ST/NS/uST) LPIII parameters from annual peak discharge data through Bayesian inference.

  6. Causality between regional stock markets: A frequency domain approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gradojević Nikola

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a data set from five regional stock exchanges (Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary and Germany, this paper presents a frequency domain analysis of a causal relationship between the returns on the CROBEX, SBITOP, CETOP and DAX indices, and the return on the major Serbian stock exchange index, BELEX 15. We find evidence of a somewhat dominant effect of the CROBEX and CETOP stock indices on the BELEX 15 stock index across a range of frequencies. The results also indicate that the BELEX 15 index and the SBITOP index interact in a bi-directional causal fashion. Finally, the DAX index movements consistently drive the BELEX 15 index returns for cycle lengths between 3 and 11 days without any feedback effect.

  7. Flood evolution assessment and monitoring using hydrological modelling techniques: analysis of the inundation areas at a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podhoranyi, M.; Kuchar, S.; Portero, A.

    2016-08-01

    The primary objective of this study is to present techniques that cover usage of a hydrodynamic model as the main tool for monitoring and assessment of flood events while focusing on modelling of inundation areas. We analyzed the 2010 flood event (14th May - 20th May) that occurred in the Moravian-Silesian region (Czech Republic). Under investigation were four main catchments: Opava, Odra, Olše and Ostravice. Four hydrodynamic models were created and implemented into the Floreon+ platform in order to map inundation areas that arose during the flood event. In order to study the dynamics of the water, we applied an unsteady flow simulation for the entire area (HEC-RAS 4.1). The inundation areas were monitored, evaluated and recorded semi-automatically by means of the Floreon+ platform. We focused on information about the extent and presence of the flood areas. The modeled flooded areas were verified by comparing them with real data from different sources (official reports, aerial photos and hydrological networks). The study confirmed that hydrodynamic modeling is a very useful tool for mapping and monitoring of inundation areas. Overall, our models detected 48 inundation areas during the 2010 flood event.

  8. The December 2004-January 2005 floods in the Garden Route region of the Southern Cape, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan Tempelhoff

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The December 2004-January 2005 floods in the Garden Route region of the Southern Cape in South Africa have had a significant impact on local development and economic activities, tourism products andlocal institutions. This article aims to capture the dynamism between a number of related fields within the context of transdisciplinary research. Qualitative research methods were used to target a representative sample of the affected population. This article considers the history of the flooding events of December 2004/January 2005 along the Garden Route, as well as the manner in which emergency/disaster management personnel responded to the crisis. The effect of the floods on the tourism sector along the Garden Route was researched in general and the effects of the floods on tourists, local residents, and particularly communities in disadvantaged areas were specifically determined. The research reflects on the disaster risk management strategies that were in place at the time of the floods to determine what local authorities could have done to cope with the potential conditions of crisis. The research found that although some tourism products were severely affected, the 2004/2005 floods did not have a significant impact on the number of tourists frequenting the area. In terms of disaster risk management, concerns remain regarding the lack of the following factors: capacity, adequate early warning systems, proper infrastructure maintenance, local institutions, and an in-depth understanding of the disaster risk profile of the area.

  9. An exhaustive approach for identification of flood risk hotspots in data poor regions enforcing combined geomorphic and socio-economic indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, M. P.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2017-12-01

    Many countries across the Globe are victims of floods. To monitor them, various sophisticated algorithms and flood models are used by the scientific community. However, there still lies a gap to efficiently mapping flood risk. The limitations being: (i) scarcity of extensive data inputs required for precise flood modeling, (ii) fizzling performance of models in large and complex terrains (iii) high computational cost and time, and (iv) inexpertise in handling model simulations by civic bodies. These factors trigger the necessity of incorporating uncomplicated and inexpensive, yet precise approaches to identify areas at different levels of flood risk. The present study addresses this issue by utilizing various easily available, low cost data in a GIS environment for a large flood prone and data poor region. A set of geomorphic indicators of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) are analysed through linear binary classification, and are used to identify the flood hazard. The performance of these indicators is then investigated using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, whereas the calibration and validation of the derived flood maps are accomplished through a comparison with dynamically coupled 1-D 2-D flood model outputs. A high degree of similarity on flood inundation proves the reliability of the proposed approach in identifying flood hazard. On the other hand, an extensive list of socio-economic indicators is selected to represent the flood vulnerability at a very finer forward sortation level using multivariate Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). A set of bivariate flood risk maps is derived combining the flood hazard and socio-economic vulnerability maps. Given the acute problem of floods in developing countries, the proposed methodology which may be characterized by low computational cost, lesser data requirement and limited flood modeling complexity may facilitate local authorities and planners for deriving effective flood management strategies.

  10. Low-frequency electrostatic waves in the ionospheric E region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krane, B [NDRE, Box 25, N-2027 Kjeller (Norway); Pecseli, H L; Sato, H [Physics Department, University of Oslo, PO Box 1048 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo (Norway); Trulsen, J [Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Oslo, PO Box 1029 Blindern, N-0315 Oslo (Norway); Wernik, A W, E-mail: hans.pecseli@fys.uio.n [Space Research Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Bartycka 18a, 00-716 Warsaw (Poland)

    2010-06-15

    Low-frequency electrostatic waves in the ionospheric E region are studied by analyzing data obtained by instrumented rockets. We identify the origin of the enhanced fluctuation level to be the Farley-Buneman instability. The basic information on instability, such as altitude varying spectra and speed of propagation are obtained. Comparison of power spectra for the fluctuations in plasma density and electrostatic potential, respectively, provides information on the electron dynamics. A bispectral analysis gives indications of phase-coherent couplings within the wave spectrum, while higher order structure functions indicate some intermittent features of the turbulence.

  11. Landslide and flood hazard assessment in urban areas of Levoča region (Eastern Slovakia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magulova, Barbora; Caporali, Enrica; Bednarik, Martin

    2010-05-01

    The case study presents the use of statistical methods and analysis tools, for hazard assessment of "urbanization units", implemented in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. As a case study, the Levoča region (Slovakia) is selected. The region, with a total area of about 351 km2, is widely affected by landslides and floods. The problem, for small urbanization areas, is nowadays particularly significant from the socio-economic point of view. It is considered, presently, also an increasing problem, mainly because of climate change and more frequent extreme rainfall events. The geo-hazards are evaluated using a multivariate analysis. The landslide hazard assessment is based on the comparison and subsequent statistical elaboration of territorial dependence among different input factors influencing the instability of the slopes. Particularly, five factors influencing slope stability are evaluated, i.e. lithology, slope aspect, slope angle, hypsographic level and present land use. As a result a new landslide susceptibility map is compiled and different zones of stable, dormant and non-stable areas are defined. For flood hazard map a detailed digital elevation model is created. A compose index of flood hazard is derived from topography, land cover and pedology related data. To estimate flood discharge, time series of stream flow and precipitation measurements are used. The assessment results are prognostic maps of landslide hazard and flood hazard, which presents the optimal base for urbanization planning.

  12. Floods and Flash Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods and flash flooding Now is the time to determine your area’s flood risk. If you are not sure whether you ... If you are in a floodplain, consider buying flood insurance. Do not drive around barricades. If your ...

  13. Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Kristina A; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

    2017-01-01

    Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001-2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

  14. Distillation Column Flooding Predictor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George E. Dzyacky

    2010-11-23

    The Flooding Predictor™ is a patented advanced control technology proven in research at the Separations Research Program, University of Texas at Austin, to increase distillation column throughput by over 6%, while also increasing energy efficiency by 10%. The research was conducted under a U. S. Department of Energy Cooperative Agreement awarded to George Dzyacky of 2ndpoint, LLC. The Flooding Predictor™ works by detecting the incipient flood point and controlling the column closer to its actual hydraulic limit than historical practices have allowed. Further, the technology uses existing column instrumentation, meaning no additional refining infrastructure is required. Refiners often push distillation columns to maximize throughput, improve separation, or simply to achieve day-to-day optimization. Attempting to achieve such operating objectives is a tricky undertaking that can result in flooding. Operators and advanced control strategies alike rely on the conventional use of delta-pressure instrumentation to approximate the column’s approach to flood. But column delta-pressure is more an inference of the column’s approach to flood than it is an actual measurement of it. As a consequence, delta pressure limits are established conservatively in order to operate in a regime where the column is never expected to flood. As a result, there is much “left on the table” when operating in such a regime, i.e. the capacity difference between controlling the column to an upper delta-pressure limit and controlling it to the actual hydraulic limit. The Flooding Predictor™, an innovative pattern recognition technology, controls columns at their actual hydraulic limit, which research shows leads to a throughput increase of over 6%. Controlling closer to the hydraulic limit also permits operation in a sweet spot of increased energy-efficiency. In this region of increased column loading, the Flooding Predictor is able to exploit the benefits of higher liquid

  15. Influence of a Storm Surge Barrier’s Operation on the Flood Frequency in the Rhine Delta Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Zhong

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The Rhine River Delta is crucial to the Dutch economy. The Maeslant barrier was built in 1997 to protect the Rhine estuary, with the city and port of Rotterdam, from storm surges. This research takes a simple approach to quantify the influence of the Maeslant storm surge barrier on design water levels behind the barrier. The dikes in the area are supposed to be able to withstand these levels. Equal Level Curves approach is used to calculate the Rotterdam water levels by using Rhine discharges and sea water levels as input. Their joint probability function generates the occurrence frequency of a certain combination that will lead to a certain high water level in Rotterdam. The results show that the flood frequency in Rotterdam is reduced effectively with the controlled barrier in current and in future scenarios influenced by climate change. In addition, an investigation of the sensitivity of the operational parameters suggests that there is a negligible influence on the high water level frequency when the decision closing water level for the barrier is set higher due to the benefits of navigation (but not exceeding the design safety level 4 m MSL.

  16. Capturing flood-to-drought transitions in regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anders, Ivonne; Haslinger, Klaus; Hofstätter, Michael; Salzmann, Manuela; Resch, Gernot

    2017-04-01

    In previous studies atmospheric cyclones have been investigated in terms of related precipitation extremes in Central Europe. Mediterranean (Vb-like) cyclones are of special relevance as they are frequently related to high atmospheric moisture fluxes leading to floods and landslides in the Alpine region. Another focus in this area is on droughts, affecting soil moisture and surface and sub-surface runoff as well. Such events develop differently depending on available pre-saturation of water in the soil. In a first step we investigated two time periods which encompass a flood event and a subsequent drought on very different time scales, one long lasting transition (2002/2003) and a rather short one between May and August 2013. In a second step we extended the investigation to the long time period 1950-2016. We focused on high spatial and temporal scales and assessed the currently achievable accuracy in the simulation of the Vb-events on one hand and following drought events on the other hand. The state-of-the-art regional climate model CCLM is applied in hindcast-mode simulating the single events described above, but also the time from 1948 to 2016 to evaluate the results from the short runs to be valid for the long time period. Besides the conventional forcing of the regional climate model at its lateral boundaries, a spectral nudging technique is applied. The simulations covering the European domain have been varied systematically different model parameters. The resulting precipitation amounts have been compared to E-OBS gridded European precipitation data set and a recent high spatially resolved precipitation data set for Austria (GPARD-6). For the drought events the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), soil moisture and runoff has been investigated. Varying the spectral nudging setup helps us to understand the 3D-processes during these events, but also to identify model deficiencies. To improve the simulation of such events in the past

  17. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  18. Evaluation of Optimized WRF Precipitation Forecast over a Complex Topography Region during Flood Season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF model has been utilized to generate quantitative precipitation forecasts with higher spatial and temporal resolutions. However, factors including horizontal resolution, domain size, and the physical parameterization scheme have a strong impact on the dynamic downscaling ability of the WRF model. In this study, the influence of these factors has been analyzed in precipitation forecasting for the Xijiang Basin, southern China—a region with complex topography. The results indicate that higher horizontal resolutions always result in higher Critical Success Indexes (CSI, but higher biases as well. Meanwhile, the precipitation forecast skills are also influenced by the combination of microphysics parameterization scheme and cumulus convective parameterization scheme. On the basis of these results, an optimized configuration of the WRF model is built in which the horizontal resolution is 10 km, the microphysics parameterization is the Lin scheme, and the cumulus convective parameterization is the Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme. This configuration is then evaluated by simulating the daily weather during the 2013–2014 flood season. The high Critical Success Index scores and low biases at various thresholds and lead times confirm the high accuracy of the optimized WRF model configuration for Xijiang Basin. However, the performance of the WRF model varies from different sub-basins due to the complexity of the mesoscale convective system (MCS over this region.

  19. Flash-flood potential assessment and mapping by integrating the weights-of-evidence and frequency ratio statistical methods in GIS environment - case study: Bâsca Chiojdului River catchment (Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costache, Romulus; Zaharia, Liliana

    2017-06-01

    Given the significant worldwide human and economic losses caused due to floods annually, reducing the negative consequences of these hazards is a major concern in development strategies at different spatial scales. A basic step in flood risk management is identifying areas susceptible to flood occurrences. This paper proposes a methodology allowing the identification of areas with high potential of accelerated surface run-off and consequently, of flash-flood occurrences. The methodology involves assessment and mapping in GIS environment of flash flood potential index (FFPI), by integrating two statistical methods: frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence. The methodology was applied for Bâsca Chiojdului River catchment (340 km2), located in the Carpathians Curvature region (Romania). Firstly, the areas with torrential phenomena were identified and the main factors controlling the surface run-off were selected (in this study nine geographical factors were considered). Based on the features of the considered factors, many classes were set for each of them. In the next step, the weights of each class/category of the considered factors were determined, by identifying their spatial relationships with the presence or absence of torrential phenomena. Finally, the weights for each class/category of geographical factors were summarized in GIS, resulting the FFPI values for each of the two statistical methods. These values were divided into five classes of intensity and were mapped. The final results were used to estimate the flash-flood potential and also to identify the most susceptible areas to this phenomenon. Thus, the high and very high values of FFPI characterize more than one-third of the study catchment. The result validation was performed by (i) quantifying the rate of the number of pixels corresponding to the torrential phenomena considered for the study (training area) and for the results' testing (validating area) and (ii) plotting the ROC (receiver operating

  20. Changes in the timing and magnitude of floods in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunderlik, J.M.; Ouarda, T.B.M.J.

    2008-01-01

    It is expected that the global climate change will have significant impacts on the regime of hydrologic extremes. An increase in both the frequency and magnitude of hydrologic extremes is anticipated in the near future. As a consequence, the design and operation of water resource systems will have to adapt to the changing regime of hydrologic extremes. This study explores trends in the timing and magnitude of floods in natural streamflow gauging stations in Canada. The seasonality of floods is analyzed and the selected streamflow stations grouped into five flood seasonality regions. A common 30-year long observation period from 1974 to 2003 is used in the analysis to eliminate the effect of hydro-climatic variability in the timing and magnitude of floods resulting from different observation periods. The timing of floods is described in terms of directional statistics. A method is developed for analyzing trends in directional dates of flood occurrence that is not affected by the choice of zero direction. The magnitude of floods is analyzed by the annual maximum and peak-over-threshold methods. Trends in the timing and magnitude of floods are identified in each flood seasonality region using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, with a modification for auto-correlated data. The results show a good correspondence between the identified flood seasonality regions and the main terrestrial zones in Canada. Significant changes in the timing and magnitude of floods are found in the flood seasonality regions. (author)

  1. Flood Hazard Recurrence Frequencies for A-, K- and L-Areas, and Revised Frequencies for C-, F-, E-, S-, H-, Y- and Z-Areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.F.

    2000-01-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) Order 420.1, Facility Safety, outlines the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this report is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines as a function of water elevation the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. Based on facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves and the nature of facility operations (e.g., involving hazardous or radioactive materials), facility managers can design permanent or temporary devices to prevent the propagation of flood on site, and develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods. Methods were developed to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for Savannah River Site (SRS) facilities. This report presents the methods used to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for A-, K-, C-, F-, E-, H-, S-, Y-, Z- and L-Areas

  2. frequency analysis of rainfall for flood control in patani, delta state

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    The Niger Delta Region of Nigeria is within the mangrove forest region and is crisscrossed by ... especially in Forcados, some oil wells have been lost to ... rainfall depths and the assessment of the rarity of .... hydrological data shows that peak rainfall occurs around .... magnitude and as output the observed maximum rainfall.

  3. PARTICULIARITIES OF FLOODS ON RIVERS IN THE TRANSYLVANIAN SUBCARPATHIANS AND THE NEIGHBOURING MOUNTAINOUS REGION BETWEEN TÂRNAVA MARE AND NIRAJ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. RADULY

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In the first part of the paper are presented the general characteristics of the high waters and floods, emphasizing that the difference is mainly related to the flood wave characteristics (duration and form and not the water volume. Then we present the geography of the study area and the main geographic characteristics which influence flood waves. We analyzed the monthly and seasonal frequency of flood waves highlighting the similarities and differences between the mountain and the neighboring areas, regarding the formation and development of floods. In the last part we analyzed statistically how many times did the areas hydrometric stations record values which were higher than the three threshold defense levels (attention, flood, danger.

  4. Continuous Sub-daily Rainfall Simulation for Regional Flood Risk Assessment - Modelling of Spatio-temporal Correlation Structure of Extreme Precipitation in the Austrian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, J. L.; Nester, T.; Komma, J.; Bloeschl, G.

    2017-12-01

    Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, and spatial and temporal correlations is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks, by reproducing antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events, and joint probability of flood waves at confluences. In this work, a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is first modeled on a station basis as a multivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space. The spatial and temporal correlation structures are imposed in the Normal space, allowing for a different temporal autocorrelation parameter for each station, and simultaneously ensuring the positive-definiteness of the correlation matrix of the mAr errors. The Normal rainfall is then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space, with parameters varying monthly according to a sinusoidal function, in order to adapt to the observed rainfall seasonality. One of the main differences with the original model is the simulation time-step, reduced from 24h to 6h. Due to a larger availability of daily rainfall data, as opposite to sub-daily (e.g. hourly), the parameters of the Gamma distributions are calibrated to reproduce simultaneously a series of daily rainfall characteristics (mean daily rainfall, standard deviations of daily rainfall, and 24h intensity-duration-frequency [IDF] curves), as well as other aggregated rainfall measures (mean annual rainfall, and monthly rainfall). The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the catchment-averaged IDF curves aggregated at different temporal scales fit the measured ones. The rainfall model is used to generate 10.000 years of synthetic

  5. Environmental change in a Mediterranean salt marsh wetland: ecological drivers of halophytes diversity along flooding frequency gradients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia María Rodríguez-González

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Coastal wetlands are among most threatened ecosystems, owing to the intense human activity concentrated in shoreline areas together with the expected sea level rise resultant from climate change. Salt marshes are wetlands which are inundated twice daily by the sea, thus tightly dependent on frequency and duration of submergence. Identifying the factors that determine the diversity, distribution and abundance of halophyte species in salt marshes will help retaining their conservation status and adopt anticipate management measures, and this will ultimately contribute to preserve marshland biodiversity and ecological services. Reserva Natural de Castro Marim e Vila Real de Santo António (RNSCMVRSA is a natural reserve located in South Eastern Portugal, comprising the tidal area of Guadiana River mouth. In spite of their great ecological value, salt marsh ecosystems in this region have suffered intense anthropic disturbance, namely hydrologic alterations and vegetation removal to gain soils for agriculture and salt intensive production. The present study aimed at characterizing the halophyte diversity in the RNSCMVRSA salt marshes and determining their major ecological correlates. The end-point is to implement, afterward, a sustainable cultivation of autochthonous halophyte plants, with economic value, in the abandoned saltpans and degraded rangelands. This project will contribute to the conservation of halophyte diversity, promote environmental requalification, and provide an economic alternative for local populations, enabling the reduction of unregulated harvest of halophyte plant populations. Field sampling strategy included a preliminary survey of local vegetation diversity and floristic inventories of halophyte communities in plots established across the existing environmental heterogeneity in order to span the whole variation gradients of the species presence and abundance. The abiotic characterization of halophyte communities included a

  6. Changes in the flood frequency in the Mahanadi basin under observed and projected future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modi, P. A.; Lakshmi, V.; Mishra, V.

    2017-12-01

    The Mahanadi river basin is vulnerable to multiple types of extreme events due to its topography and river networks. These extreme events are not efficiently captured by the current LSMs partly due to lack of spatial hydrological data and uncertainty in the models. This study compares and evaluates the hydrologic simulations of the recently developed community Noah model with multi-parameterization options which is an upgradation of baseline Noah LSM. The model is calibrated and validated for the Mahanadi river basin and is driven by major atmospheric forcing from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), Tropical rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP designed for hydrological modeling) precipitation datasets along with some additional forcing derived from the VIC model at 0.25-degree spatial resolution. The Noah-MP LSM is calibrated using observed daily streamflow data from 1978-1989 (India-WRIS) at the gauge stations with least human interventions with a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency higher than 0.60. Noah MP was calibrated using different schemes for runoff with variation in all parameters sensitive to surface and sub-surface runoff. Streamflow routing was performed using a stand-alone model (VIC model) to route daily model runoff at required gauge station. Surface runoff is mainly affected by the uncertainties in major atmospheric forcing and highly sensitive parameters pertaining to soil properties. Noah MP is validated using observed streamflow from 1975-2010 which indicates the consistency of streamflow with the historical observations (NSE>0.65) thus indicating an increase in probability of future flood events.

  7. Frequency and intensity of high-altitude floods over the last 3.5 ka in northwestern French Alps (Lake Anterne)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giguet-Covex, Charline; Arnaud, Fabien; Enters, Dirk; Poulenard, Jérôme; Millet, Laurent; Francus, Pierre; David, Fernand; Rey, Pierre-Jérôme; Wilhelm, Bruno; Delannoy, Jean-Jacques

    2012-01-01

    In central Western Europe, several studies have shown that colder Holocene periods, such as the Little Ice Age, also correspond to wet periods. However, in mountain areas which are highly sensitive to erosion processes and where precipitation events can be localized, past evolution of hydrological activity might be more complicated. To assess these past hydrological changes, a paleolimnological approach was applied on a 13.4-m-long sediment core taken in alpine Lake Anterne (2063 m asl) and representing the last 3.5 ka. Lake sedimentation is mainly composed of flood deposits triggered by precipitation events. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses show that floods were more frequent during cold periods while high-intensity flood events occurred preferentially during warmer periods. In mild temperature conditions, both flood patterns are present. This underlines the complex relationship between flood hazards and climatic change in mountain areas. During the warmer and/or dryer times of the end of Iron Age and the Roman Period, both the frequency and intensity of floods increased. This is interpreted as an effect of human-induced clearing for grazing activities and reveals that anthropogenic interferences must be taken into account when reconstructing climatic signals from natural archives.

  8. Impacts of Non-Stationarity in Climate on Flood Intensity-Duration-Frequency: Case Studies in Mountainous Areas with Snowmelt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Z.; Ren, H.; Sun, N.; Leung, L. R.; Liu, Y.; Coleman, A. M.; Skaggs, R.; Wigmosta, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic engineering design usually involves intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) analysis for calculating runoff from a design storm of specified precipitation frequency and duration using event-based hydrologic rainfall-runoff models. Traditionally, the procedure assumes climate stationarity and neglects snowmelt-driven runoff contribution to floods. In this study, we used high resolution climate simulations to provide inputs to the physics-based Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to determine the spatially distributed precipitation and snowmelt available for runoff. Climate model outputs were extracted around different mountainous field sites in Colorado and California. IDF curves were generated at each numerical grid of DHSVM based on the simulated precipitation, temperature, and available water for runoff. Quantitative evaluation of trending and stationarity tests were conducted to identify (quasi-)stationary time periods for reliable IDF analysis. The impact of stationarity was evaluated by comparing the derived IDF attributes with respect to time windows of different length and level of stationarity. Spatial mapping of event return-period was performed for various design storms, and spatial mapping of event intensity was performed for given duration and return periods. IDF characteristics were systematically compared (historical vs RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5) using annual maximum series vs partial duration series data with the goal of providing reliable IDF analyses to support hydrologic engineering design.

  9. Coastal Flooding in Florida's Big Bend Region with Application to Sea Level Rise Based on Synthetic Storms Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott C. Hagen Peter Bacopoulos

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is examined by comparing maximum envelopes of water against the 0.2% (= 1-in-500-year return-period flooding surface generated as part of revising the Federal Emergency Management Agency¡¦s flood insurance rate maps for Franklin, Wakulla, and Jefferson counties in Florida¡¦s Big Bend Region. The analysis condenses the number of storms to a small fraction of the original 159 used in production. The analysis is performed by assessing which synthetic storms contributed to inundation extent (the extent of inundation into the floodplain, coverage (the overall surface area of the inundated floodplain and the spatially variable 0.2% flooding surface. The results are interpreted in terms of storm attributes (pressure deficit, radius to maximum winds, translation speed, storm heading, and landfall location and the physical processes occurring within the natural system (storms surge and waves; both are contextualized against existing and new hurricane scales. The approach identifies what types of storms and storm attributes lead to what types of inundation, as measured in terms of extent and coverage, in Florida¡¦s Big Bend Region and provides a basis in the identification of a select subset of synthetic storms for studying the impact of sea level rise. The sea level rise application provides a clear contrast between a dynamic approach versus that of a static approach.

  10. Flooding and Flood Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

  11. VEGETATION BEHAVIOR AND ITS HABITAT REGION AGAINST FLOOD FLOW IN URBAN STREAMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IL-KI CHOI

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydraulic effects on the vegetation behavior and on its habitat region against flood flow in the urban streams were analysed in this paper. Vegetation behavior was classified into stable, recovered, damaged and swept away stages. Criteria between recovered and damaged status were determined by the bending angle of the aquatic plants. Aquatic plants whose bending angle is lower than 30~50 degree is recovered, but they were damaged and cannot be recovered when the bending angle is higher than 30~50 degree. Phragmites japonica was inhabited in the hydraulic condition of high Froude number which shows that it was inhabited in the upstream reaches. Phragmites communis was inhabited in the relatively low Froude number compared with Phragmites japonica. This shows that it was inhabited in the downstream reaches. Persicaria blumei was found in the relatively wide range of flow velocity and flow depth, which shows that it was inhabited in the middle and downstream reaches. Criterion on the vegetation behavior of Persicaria thunbergii was not clear, which implies that it may be affected by the flow turbulence rather than flow velocity and flow depth.

  12. Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Flood is a common natural disaster and also affect the all state in Malaysia. Regarding to Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) in 2007, about 29, 270 km2 or 9 percent of region of the country is prone to flooding. Flood can be such devastating catastrophic which can effected to people, economy and environment. Flood hazard mapping can be used is an important part in flood assessment to define those high risk area prone to flooding. The purposes of this study are to prepare a flood hazard mapping in Perlis and to evaluate flood hazard using frequency ratio, statistical index and Poisson method. The six factors affecting the occurrence of flood including elevation, distance from the drainage network, rainfall, soil texture, geology and erosion were created using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Flood location map in this study has been generated based on flooded area in year 2010 from DID. These parameters and flood location map were analysed to prepare flood hazard mapping in representing the probability of flood area. The results of the analysis were verified using flood location data in year 2013, 2014, 2015. The comparison result showed statistical index method is better in prediction of flood area rather than frequency ratio and Poisson method.

  13. A new framework for estimating return levels using regional frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro; Clegg, Georgina

    2017-04-01

    We propose a new framework for incorporating more spatial and temporal information into the estimation of extreme return levels. Currently, most studies use extreme value models applied to data from a single site; an approach which is inefficient statistically and leads to return level estimates that are less physically realistic. We aim to highlight the benefits that could be obtained by using methodology based upon regional frequency analysis as opposed to classic single site extreme value analysis. This motivates a shift in thinking, which permits the evaluation of local and regional effects and makes use of the wide variety of data that are now available on high temporal and spatial resolutions. The recent winter storms over the UK during the winters of 2013-14 and 2015-16, which have caused wide-ranging disruption and damaged important infrastructure, provide the main motivation for the current work. One of the most impactful natural hazards is flooding, which is often initiated by extreme precipitation. In this presentation, we focus on extreme rainfall, but shall discuss other meteorological variables alongside potentially damaging hazard combinations. To understand the risks posed by extreme precipitation, we need reliable statistical models which can be used to estimate quantities such as the T-year return level, i.e. the level which is expected to be exceeded once every T-years. Extreme value theory provides the main collection of statistical models that can be used to estimate the risks posed by extreme precipitation events. Broadly, at a single site, a statistical model is fitted to exceedances of a high threshold and the model is used to extrapolate to levels beyond the range of the observed data. However, when we have data at many sites over a spatial domain, fitting a separate model for each separate site makes little sense and it would be better if we could incorporate all this information to improve the reliability of return level estimates. Here

  14. Climate change track in river floods in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. W. Kundzewicz

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A holistic perspective on changing river flood risk in Europe is provided. Economic losses from floods have increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. Climate change (i.e. observed increase in precipitation intensity, decrease of snowpack and other observed climate changes might already have had an impact on floods. However, no gauge-based evidence had been found for a climate-driven, widespread change in the magnitude/frequency of floods during the last decades. There are strong regional and sub-regional variations in the trends. Moreover, it has not been generally possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change. Physical reasoning suggests that projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall would contribute to increases in rain-generated local floods, while less snowmelt flooding and earlier spring peak flows in snowmelt-fed rivers are expected. However, there is low confidence in future changes in flood magnitude and frequency resulting from climate change. The impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes. Discussion of projections of flood hazard in Europe is offered. Attention is drawn to a considerable uncertainty - over the last decade or so, projections of flood hazard in Europe have largely changed.

  15. GIS-modelling of the spatial variability of flash flood hazard in Abu Dabbab catchment, Red Sea Region, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islam Abou El-Magd

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In the mountainous area of the Red Sea region in southeastern Egypt, the development of new mining activities or/and domestic infrastructures require reliable and accurate information about natural hazards particularly flash flood. This paper presents the assessment of flash flood hazards in the Abu Dabbab drainage basin. Remotely sensed data were used to delineate the alluvial active channels, which were integrated with morphometric parameters extracted from digital elevation models (DEM into geographical information systems (GIS to construct a hydrological model that provides estimates about the amount of surface runoff as well as the magnitude of flash floods. The peak discharge is randomly varied at different cross-sections along the main channel. Under consistent 10 mm rainfall event, the selected cross-section in middle of the main channel is prone to maximum water depth at 80 cm, which decreases to nearly 30 cm at the outlet due to transmission loss. The estimation of spatial variability of flow parameters within the catchment at different confluences of the constituting sub-catchments can be considered and used in planning for engineering foundations and linear infrastructures with the least flash flood hazard. Such information would, indeed, help decision makers and planning to minimize such hazards.

  16. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internally induced flooding events for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage. Volume 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dandini, V.; Staple, B.; Kirk, H.; Whitehead, D.; Forester, J.

    1994-07-01

    An estimate of the contribution of internal flooding to the mean core damage frequency at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station was calculated for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage. Pursuant to this objective, flood zones and sources were identified and flood volumes were calculated. Equipment necessary for the maintenance of plant safety was identified and its vulnerability to flooding was determined. Event trees and fault trees were modified or developed as required, and PRA quantification was performed using the IRRAS code. The mean core damage frequency estimate for GGNS during POS 5 was found to be 2.3 E-8 per year

  17. Investigation of Flood Risk Assessment in Inaccessible Regions using Multiple Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J.; Lee, K. S.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding is extremely dangerous when a river overflows to inundate an urban area. From 1995 to 2016, North Korea (NK) experienced annual extensive damage to life and property almost each year due to a levee breach resulting from typhoons and heavy rainfall during the summer monsoon season. Recently, Hoeryeong City (2016) experienced heavy rainfall during typhoon Lionrock and the resulting flood killed and injured many people (68,900) and destroyed numerous buildings and settlements (11,600). The NK state media described it as the biggest national disaster since 1945. Thus, almost all annual repeat occurrences of floods in NK have had a serious impact, which makes it necessary to figure out the extent of floods in restoring the damaged environment. In addition, traditional hydrological model is impractical to delineate Flood Damaged Areas (FDAs) in NK due to the inaccessibility. Under such a situation, multiple optical Remote Sensing (RS) and radar RS along with a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial analysis were utilized in this study (1) to develop modelling FDA delineation using multiple RS and GIS methods and (2) to conduct flood risk assessment in NK. Interpreting high-resolution web-based satellite imagery were also implemented to confirm the results of the study. From the study result, it was found that (1) on August 30th, 2016, an area of 117.2 km2 (8.6%) at Hoeryeong City was inundated. Most floods occurred in flat areas with a lower and middle stream order. (2) In the binary logistic regression model applied in this study, the distance from the nearest stream map and landform map variables are important factors to delineate FDAs because these two factors reflect heterogeneous mountainous NK topography. (3) Total annual flood risk of study area is estimated to be ₩454.13 million NKW ($504,417.24 USD, and ₩576.53 million SKW). The risk of the confluence of the Tumen River and Hoeryeong stream appears to be the highest. (4) High resolution

  18. Improving regional climate and hydrological forecasting following the record setting flooding across the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Seglenieks, F.; Bruxer, J.; Fortin, V.; Noel, J.

    2017-12-01

    In the spring of 2017, water levels across Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River exceeded record high levels, leading to widespread flooding, damage to property, and controversy over regional dam operating protocols. Only a few years earlier, water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron (upstream of Lake Ontario) had dropped to record low levels leading to speculation that either anthropogenic controls or climate change were leading to chronic water loss from the Great Lakes. The contrast between low water level conditions across Earth's largest lake system from the late 1990s through 2013, and the rapid rise prior to the flooding in early 2017, underscores the challenges of quantifying and forecasting hydrologic impacts of rising regional air and water temperatures (and associated changes in lake evaporation) and persistent increases in long-term precipitation. Here, we assess the hydrologic conditions leading to the recent record flooding across the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system, with a particular emphasis on understanding the extent to which those conditions were consistent with observed and anticipated changes in historical and future climate, and the extent to which those conditions could have been anticipated through improvements in seasonal climate outlooks and hydrological forecasts.

  19. Leptospira species in floodwater during the 2011 floods in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaipadungpanit, Janjira; Wuthiekanun, Vanaporn; Chantratita, Narisara; Yimsamran, Surapon; Amornchai, Premjit; Boonsilp, Siriphan; Maneeboonyang, Wanchai; Tharnpoophasiam, Prapin; Saiprom, Natnaree; Mahakunkijcharoen, Yuvadee; Day, Nicholas P J; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Peacock, Sharon J; Limmathurotsakul, Direk

    2013-10-01

    Floodwater samples (N = 110) collected during the 2011 Bangkok floods were tested for Leptospira using culture and polymerase chain reaction (PCR); 65 samples were PCR-positive for putatively non-pathogenic Leptospira species, 1 sample contained a putatively pathogenic Leptospira, and 6 samples contained Leptospira clustering phylogenetically with the intermediate group. The low prevalence of pathogenic and intermediate Leptospira in floodwater was consistent with the low number of human leptospirosis cases reported to the Bureau of Epidemiology in Thailand. This study provides baseline information on environmental Leptospira in Bangkok together with a set of laboratory tests that could be readily deployed in the event of future flooding.

  20. Flood Zoning Simulation by HEC-RAS Model (Case Study: Johor River-Kota Tinggi Region)

    OpenAIRE

    ShahiriParsa, Ahmad; Heydari, Mohammad; Sadeghian, Mohammad Sadegh; Moharrampour, Mahdi

    2015-01-01

    Flooding of rivers has caused many human and financial losses. Hence, studies and research on the nature of the river is inevitable.However, the behavior of rivers hasmany complexities and in this respect, computer models are efficient tools in order to study and simulate the behavior of rivers with the least possible cost. In this paper, one-dimensional model HEC-RAS was used to simulate the flood zoning in the Kota Tinggi district in Johor state. Implementation processes of the zoning on ca...

  1. Towards a better knowledge of flash flood forecasting at the Three Gorges Region: Progress over the past decade and challenges ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhe; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Hanbo; Wu, Tianjiao; Xu, Jijun; Gao, Bing; Xu, Tao

    2015-04-01

    The study area, the Three Gorges Region (TGR), plays a critical role in predicting the floods drained into the Three Gorges Reservoir, as reported local floods often exceed 10000m3/s during rainstorm events and trigger fast as well as significant impacts on the Three Gorges Reservoir's regulation. Meanwhile, it is one of typical mountainous areas in China, which is located in the transition zone between two monsoon systems: the East Asian monsoon and the South Asian (Indian) monsoon. This climatic feature, combined with local irregular terrains, has shaped complicated rainfall-runoff regimes in this focal region. However, due to the lack of high-resolution hydrometeorological data and physically-based hydrologic modeling framework, there was little knowledge about rainfall variability and flood pattern in this historically ungauged region, which posed great uncertainties to flash flood forecasting in the past. The present study summarize latest progresses of regional flash floods monitoring and prediction, including installation of a ground-based Hydrometeorological Observation Network (TGR-HMON), application of a regional geomorphology-based hydrological model (TGR-GBHM), development of an integrated forecasting and modeling system (TGR-INFORMS), and evaluation of quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) products in TGR flash flood forecasting. With these continuing efforts to improve the forecasting performance of flash floods in TGR, we have addressed several critical issues: (1) Current observation network is still insufficient to capture localized rainstorms, and weather radar provides valuable information to forecast flash floods induced by localized rainstorms, although current radar QPE products can be improved substantially in future; (2) Long-term evaluation shows that the geomorphology-based distributed hydrologic model (GBHM) is able to simulate flash flooding processes reasonably, while model

  2. Hybrid artificial intelligence approach based on neural fuzzy inference model and metaheuristic optimization for flood susceptibilitgy modeling in a high-frequency tropical cyclone area using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien Bui, Dieu; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Nampak, Haleh; Bui, Quang-Thanh; Tran, Quynh-An; Nguyen, Quoc-Phi

    2016-09-01

    This paper proposes a new artificial intelligence approach based on neural fuzzy inference system and metaheuristic optimization for flood susceptibility modeling, namely MONF. In the new approach, the neural fuzzy inference system was used to create an initial flood susceptibility model and then the model was optimized using two metaheuristic algorithms, Evolutionary Genetic and Particle Swarm Optimization. A high-frequency tropical cyclone area of the Tuong Duong district in Central Vietnam was used as a case study. First, a GIS database for the study area was constructed. The database that includes 76 historical flood inundated areas and ten flood influencing factors was used to develop and validate the proposed model. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the model performance and its prediction capability. Experimental results showed that the proposed model has high performance on both the training (RMSE = 0.306, MAE = 0.094, AUC = 0.962) and validation dataset (RMSE = 0.362, MAE = 0.130, AUC = 0.911). The usability of the proposed model was evaluated by comparing with those obtained from state-of-the art benchmark soft computing techniques such as J48 Decision Tree, Random Forest, Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System. The results show that the proposed MONF model outperforms the above benchmark models; we conclude that the MONF model is a new alternative tool that should be used in flood susceptibility mapping. The result in this study is useful for planners and decision makers for sustainable management of flood-prone areas.

  3. A review of the regional maximum flood and rational formula using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    driniev

    2004-07-03

    Jul 3, 2004 ... The advantage of this method is that the events of large ... The question that arises is “which method is fair to use?” The answer depends ... determined by modelling past floods with an extreme value distri- bution. Even in this ...

  4. Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. Since sub-daily streamflow information is unavailable for most small basins in China, one of the main challenges is finding appropriate parameter values for simulating flash floods in ungauged catchments. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability between different catchments. For this purpose, the physically-based, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model PRMS-OMS is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly data from more than 800 storm runoff events are used to calibrate the model and evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. For each catchment, 58 catchment attributes are extracted from several data sets available for whole China. We then use a data mining technique (decision tree learning) to identify catchment similarities that can be related to good transfer performance. Finally, we use the splitting rules of decision trees for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. We show that decision tree learning allows to optimally utilize the information content of available catchment descriptors and outperforms regionalization based on a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by 15%-20%. Similar performance can be achieved with a regionalization method based on spatial proximity, but decision trees offer flexible rules for selecting suitable donor catchments, not relying on the vicinity of gauged catchments. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged environments. We evaluate the probability to detect flood events exceeding a given return period, considering measured discharge and PRMS-OMS simulated flows with regionalized parameters

  5. Flood-rich and flood-poor periods in Spain in 1942-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

    2016-04-01

    regions across Europe using the longest streamflow records, Journal of Hydrology, 528, 341-360, 2015. Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

  6. Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.; Guo, L.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. One of the main challenges of setting up such a system is finding appropriate model parameter values for ungauged catchments. Previous studies have shown that the transfer of parameter sets from hydrologically similar gauged catchments is one of the best performing regionalization methods. However, a remaining key issue is the identification of suitable descriptors of similarity. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability in the full space of catchment descriptors. For this purpose, a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly runoff data from in total 858 storm events are used to calibrate the model and to evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. We then present a novel technique that uses the splitting rules of classification and regression trees (CART) for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. The ability of the model to detect flood events in assumed ungauged catchments is evaluated in series of leave-one-out tests. We show that CART analysis increases the probability of detection of 10-year flood events in comparison to a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by up to 20%. Decision tree learning can outperform other regionalization approaches because it generates rules that optimally consider spatial proximity and physical similarity. Spatial proximity can be used as a selection criteria but is skipped in the case where no similar gauged catchments are in the vicinity. We conclude that the CART regionalization concept is particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged and topographically complex environments where a proximity

  7. Multi-temporal clustering of continental floods and associated atmospheric circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Yongqiang

    2017-12-01

    Investigating clustering of floods has important social, economic and ecological implications. This study examines the clustering of Australian floods at different temporal scales and its possible physical mechanisms. Flood series with different severities are obtained by peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling in four flood thresholds. At intra-annual scale, Cox regression and monthly frequency methods are used to examine whether and when the flood clustering exists, respectively. At inter-annual scale, dispersion indices with four-time variation windows are applied to investigate the inter-annual flood clustering and its variation. Furthermore, the Kernel occurrence rate estimate and bootstrap resampling methods are used to identify flood-rich/flood-poor periods. Finally, seasonal variation of horizontal wind at 850 hPa and vertical wind velocity at 500 hPa are used to investigate the possible mechanisms causing the temporal flood clustering. Our results show that: (1) flood occurrences exhibit clustering at intra-annual scale, which are regulated by climate indices representing the impacts of the Pacific and Indian Oceans; (2) the flood-rich months occur from January to March over northern Australia, and from July to September over southwestern and southeastern Australia; (3) stronger inter-annual clustering takes place across southern Australia than northern Australia; and (4) Australian floods are characterised by regional flood-rich and flood-poor periods, with 1987-1992 identified as the flood-rich period across southern Australia, but the flood-poor period across northern Australia, and 2001-2006 being the flood-poor period across most regions of Australia. The intra-annual and inter-annual clustering and temporal variation of flood occurrences are in accordance with the variation of atmospheric circulation. These results provide relevant information for flood management under the influence of climate variability, and, therefore, are helpful for developing

  8. Unstructured mesh adaptivity for urban flooding modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, R.; Fang, F.; Salinas, P.; Pain, C. C.

    2018-05-01

    Over the past few decades, urban floods have been gaining more attention due to their increase in frequency. To provide reliable flooding predictions in urban areas, various numerical models have been developed to perform high-resolution flood simulations. However, the use of high-resolution meshes across the whole computational domain causes a high computational burden. In this paper, a 2D control-volume and finite-element flood model using adaptive unstructured mesh technology has been developed. This adaptive unstructured mesh technique enables meshes to be adapted optimally in time and space in response to the evolving flow features, thus providing sufficient mesh resolution where and when it is required. It has the advantage of capturing the details of local flows and wetting and drying front while reducing the computational cost. Complex topographic features are represented accurately during the flooding process. For example, the high-resolution meshes around the buildings and steep regions are placed when the flooding water reaches these regions. In this work a flooding event that happened in 2002 in Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom has been simulated to demonstrate the capability of the adaptive unstructured mesh flooding model. The simulations have been performed using both fixed and adaptive unstructured meshes, and then results have been compared with those published 2D and 3D results. The presented method shows that the 2D adaptive mesh model provides accurate results while having a low computational cost.

  9. Research on frequency control strategy of interconnected region based on fuzzy PID

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Li, Chunlan

    2018-05-01

    In order to improve the frequency control performance of the interconnected power grid, overcome the problems of poor robustness and slow adjustment of traditional regulation, the paper puts forward a frequency control method based on fuzzy PID. The method takes the frequency deviation and tie-line deviation of each area as the control objective, takes the regional frequency deviation and its deviation as input, and uses fuzzy mathematics theory, adjusts PID control parameters online. By establishing the regional frequency control model of water-fire complementary power generation in MATLAB, the regional frequency control strategy is given, and three control modes (TBC-FTC, FTC-FTC, FFC-FTC) are simulated and analyzed. The simulation and experimental results show that, this method has better control performance compared with the traditional regional frequency regulation.

  10. Climate change impacts and uncertainties in flood risk management: Examples from the North Sea Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence, D.; Graham, L.P.; Besten, J. Den; Andreasson, J.; Bergstroem, S.; Engen-Skaugen, T.; Foerland, E.; Groen, R.; Jespersen, M.; Jong, K. de; Olsson, J.

    2012-07-01

    This report presents methods used for estimating the hydrological impacts of climate change and their uncertainties, the expected impacts on extreme flows in Norway, and in Sweden with particular reference to Lake Vaenern, and examples of climate change impacts on river discharge and on agriculture in the Netherlands. Work considering changes in extreme precipitation is also reported, as are methods and strategies for communicating climate change impacts in flood management practice. (eb)

  11. Bryophyte diversity patterns in flooded and tierra firme forests in the Araracuara Region, Colombian Amazonia

    OpenAIRE

    Benavides, Juan C.; Idarraga, Alvaro; Alvarez, Esteban

    2004-01-01

    We investigated patterns of bryophyte species richness and composition in two forest types of Colombian Amazonia, non-flooded tierra firme forest and floodplain forest of the Caquetá River. A total of 109 bryophyte species were recorded from 14 0.2 ha plots. Bryophyte life forms and habitats were analyzed, including the canopy and epiphylls. Bryophyte species did not show significant differences between landscapes but mosses and liverworts were different and with opposite responses balancing ...

  12. Oil flooded compression cycle enhancement for two-stage heat pump in cold climate region: System design and theoretical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Baojun

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • COP of proposed system improves up to 17.2% compared with vapor injection cycle. • Discharge temperature of proposed system is largely decreased. • Proposed system is beneficial for refrigerant with high compression heat. • Proposed system has potential for applications in cold climate heat pump. - Abstract: In order to improve the performance of air source heat pump in cold climate region, a combined oil flooded compression with regenerator and vapor injection cycle system is suggested in this paper, which integrates oil flooded compression with regenerator into a conventional vapor injection cycle. A mathematical model is developed and parametric studies on this cycle are conducted to evaluate the benefits of the novel system. The performances of the novel system using R410A and R32 are compared with those of vapor injection cycle system. The improvement of coefficient of performance (COP) can reach up to nearly 9% based on the same isentropic efficiency, while 17.2% based on assumption that there is a 10% rise in isentropic efficiency brought by oil flooded compression cycle. The heating capacity is reduced by 8–18% based on the same volumetric efficiency, while could be less than 10% in a practical system. The discharge temperature is largely decreased and can be below 100 °C at −40 °C T_e and 50 °C T_c condition for R32. The theoretical results demonstrate this novel heat pump has a high potential for improving the performance of air source heat pump in cold climate region.

  13. Evaluation of design flood estimates with respect to sample size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobierska, Florian; Engeland, Kolbjorn

    2016-04-01

    Estimation of design floods forms the basis for hazard management related to flood risk and is a legal obligation when building infrastructure such as dams, bridges and roads close to water bodies. Flood inundation maps used for land use planning are also produced based on design flood estimates. In Norway, the current guidelines for design flood estimates give recommendations on which data, probability distribution, and method to use dependent on length of the local record. If less than 30 years of local data is available, an index flood approach is recommended where the local observations are used for estimating the index flood and regional data are used for estimating the growth curve. For 30-50 years of data, a 2 parameter distribution is recommended, and for more than 50 years of data, a 3 parameter distribution should be used. Many countries have national guidelines for flood frequency estimation, and recommended distributions include the log Pearson II, generalized logistic and generalized extreme value distributions. For estimating distribution parameters, ordinary and linear moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are used. The aim of this study is to r-evaluate the guidelines for local flood frequency estimation. In particular, we wanted to answer the following questions: (i) Which distribution gives the best fit to the data? (ii) Which estimation method provides the best fit to the data? (iii) Does the answer to (i) and (ii) depend on local data availability? To answer these questions we set up a test bench for local flood frequency analysis using data based cross-validation methods. The criteria were based on indices describing stability and reliability of design flood estimates. Stability is used as a criterion since design flood estimates should not excessively depend on the data sample. The reliability indices describe to which degree design flood predictions can be trusted.

  14. Prioritising watersheds on the basis of regional flood susceptibility and vulnerability in mountainous areas through the use of indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelis, Carolina; Werner, Micha

    2013-04-01

    capability of the watershed to transport debris flows. The combination of the morphometric and land use indicators resulted in a susceptibility indicator that was compared with the available records of past floods in the area. This showed that the use of the land use indicator significantly improves the susceptibility assessment. Vulnerability was assessed in terms of indicators representing physical exposure, fragility of the socio-economic system and lack of resilience to cope and recover. Principal component analysis was subsequently applied to reduce variables and provide a representation of each of their facets by a component. This resulted in a composite indicator of susceptibility and vulnerability for each of the 106 watersheds. The indicator was compared with the history of flash flood damage in the watersheds. Results show that the indicator is useful in applications at regional scales for preliminary assessment to differentiate at spatial level the degree of flood susceptibility and vulnerability. This provides an initial and qualitative risk outlook in the study area and can be used for planning and prioritization of further more detailed studies.

  15. Flood model for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palán, Ladislav; Punčochář, Petr

    2017-04-01

    Looking on the impact of flooding from the World-wide perspective, in last 50 years flooding has caused over 460,000 fatalities and caused serious material damage. Combining economic loss from ten costliest flood events (from the same period) returns a loss (in the present value) exceeding 300bn USD. Locally, in Brazil, flood is the most damaging natural peril with alarming increase of events frequencies as 5 out of the 10 biggest flood losses ever recorded have occurred after 2009. The amount of economic and insured losses particularly caused by various flood types was the key driver of the local probabilistic flood model development. Considering the area of Brazil (being 5th biggest country in the World) and the scattered distribution of insured exposure, a domain covered by the model was limited to the entire state of Sao Paolo and 53 additional regions. The model quantifies losses on approx. 90 % of exposure (for regular property lines) of key insurers. Based on detailed exposure analysis, Impact Forecasting has developed this tool using long term local hydrological data series (Agencia Nacional de Aguas) from riverine gauge stations and digital elevation model (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). To provide most accurate representation of local hydrological behaviour needed for the nature of probabilistic simulation, a hydrological data processing focused on frequency analyses of seasonal peak flows - done by fitting appropriate extreme value statistical distribution and stochastic event set generation consisting of synthetically derived flood events respecting realistic spatial and frequency patterns visible in entire period of hydrological observation. Data were tested for homogeneity, consistency and for any significant breakpoint occurrence in time series so the entire observation or only its subparts were used for further analysis. The realistic spatial patterns of stochastic events are reproduced through the innovative use of d-vine copula

  16. Global and Regional Real-time Systems for Flood and Drought Monitoring and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Xue, X.; Flamig, Z.

    2015-12-01

    A Hydrometeorological Extreme Mapping and Prediction System (HyXtreme-MaP), initially built upon the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) distributed hydrological model, is driven by real-time quasi-global TRMM/GPM satellites and by the US Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar network with dual-polarimetric upgrade to simulate streamflow, actual ET, soil moisture and other hydrologic variables at 1/8th degree resolution quasi-globally (http://eos.ou.edu) and at 250-meter 2.5-mintue resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS: http://flash.ou.edu).­ Multifaceted and collaborative by-design, this end-to-end research framework aims to not only integrate data, models, and applications but also brings people together (i.e., NOAA, NASA, University researchers, and end-users). This presentation will review the progresses, challenges and opportunities of such HyXTREME-MaP System used to monitor global floods and droughts, and also to predict flash floods over the CONUS.

  17. River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States and trends in annual timing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate-associated increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood-generating mechanisms operating in a basin and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and floodplains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood-generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, floodplain infrastructure, and human communities. For example, changes in spring or fall flood timing may negatively or positively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. In this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 climate-sensitive watersheds in New England and the Mid-Atlantic (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Historical trends in flood timing during the year are also investigated. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. The seasonality of flooding in these regions, and any historical changes, are considered in the context of other ongoing or expected phenological changes in the Northeast U.S. environment that affect flood generation—e.g., the timing of leaf-off/leaf-out for deciduous plants. How these factors interact will affect whether and how flood magnitudes and frequencies change in the future and associated impacts.

  18. Including local rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions into a 2-D regional-local flood modelling cascade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bermúdez, María; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Bates, Paul D.; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim E.; Cea, Luis; Puertas, Jerónimo

    2016-04-01

    Flood inundation models require appropriate boundary conditions to be specified at the limits of the domain, which commonly consist of upstream flow rate and downstream water level. These data are usually acquired from gauging stations on the river network where measured water levels are converted to discharge via a rating curve. Derived streamflow estimates are therefore subject to uncertainties in this rating curve, including extrapolating beyond the maximum observed ratings magnitude. In addition, the limited number of gauges in reach-scale studies often requires flow to be routed from the nearest upstream gauge to the boundary of the model domain. This introduces additional uncertainty, derived not only from the flow routing method used, but also from the additional lateral rainfall-runoff contributions downstream of the gauging point. Although generally assumed to have a minor impact on discharge in fluvial flood modeling, this local hydrological input may become important in a sparse gauge network or in events with significant local rainfall. In this study, a method to incorporate rating curve uncertainty and the local rainfall-runoff dynamics into the predictions of a reach-scale flood inundation model is proposed. Discharge uncertainty bounds are generated by applying a non-parametric local weighted regression approach to stage-discharge measurements for two gauging stations, while measured rainfall downstream from these locations is cascaded into a hydrological model to quantify additional inflows along the main channel. A regional simplified-physics hydraulic model is then applied to combine these inputs and generate an ensemble of discharge and water elevation time series at the boundaries of a local-scale high complexity hydraulic model. Finally, the effect of these rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions are evaluated on the local-scale model. Improvements in model performance when incorporating these processes are quantified using observed

  19. Coastal flooding impact evaluation using an INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model for Varna region, Western Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreeva, Nataliya; Eftimova, Petya; Valchev, Nikolay; Prodanov, Bogdan

    2017-04-01

    The study presents evaluation and comparative analysis of storm induced flooding impacts on different coastal receptors at a scale of Varna region using INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model. The model was developed within the FP7 RISC-KIT project, as a part of Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) consisting of two phases. CRAF Phase 1 is a screening process that evaluates coastal risk at a regional scale by means of coastal indices approach, which helps to identify potentially vulnerable coastal sectors: hot spots (HS). CRAF Phase 2 has the objective to assess and rank identified hotspots by detailed risk analysis done by jointly performing a hazard assessment and an impact evaluation on different categories (population, businesses, ecosystems, transport and utilities) using INDRA model at a regional level. Basically, the model assess the shock of events by estimating the impact on directly exposed to flooding hazard receptors of different vulnerability, as well as the potential ripple effects during an event in order to assess the "indirect" impacts, which occur outside the hazard area and/or continue after the event for all considered categories. The potential impacts are expressed in terms of uniform "Impact Indicators", which independently score the indirect impacts of these categories assessing disruption and recovery of the receptors. The ultimate hotspot ranking is obtained through the use of a Multi Criteria analysis (MCA) incorporated in the model, considering preferences of stakeholders. The case study area - Varna regional coast - is located on the western Black Sea, Bulgaria. The coastline, with a length of about 70 km, stretches from cape Ekrene to cape St. Atanas and includes Varna Bay. After application of CRAF Phase 1 three hotspots were selected for further analysis: Kabakum beach (HS1), Varna Central beach plus Port wall (HS2) and Artificial Island (HS3). For first two hotspots beaches and associated infrastructure are the assets

  20. Backscatter Analysis Using Multi-Temporal and Multi-Frequency SAR Data in the Context of Flood Mapping at River Saale, Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandro Martinis

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an analysis of multi-temporal and multi-frequency Synthetic Aperture Radar data is performed to investigate the backscatter behavior of various semantic classes in the context of flood mapping in central Europe. The focus is mainly on partially submerged vegetation such as forests and agricultural fields. The test area is located at River Saale, Saxony-Anhalt, Germany, which is covered by a time series of 39 TerraSAR-X data acquired within the time interval December 2009 to June 2013. The data set is supplemented by ALOS PALSAR L-band and RADARSAT-2 C-band data. The time series covers two inundations in January 2011 and June 2013 which allows evaluating backscatter variations between flood periods and normal water level conditions using different radar wavelengths. According to the results, there is potential in detecting flooding beneath vegetation in all microwave wavelengths, even in X-band for sparse vegetation or leaf-off forests.

  1. Development of a global river-coastal coupling model and its application to flood simulation in Asian mega-delta regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2017-04-01

    The world's mega-delta regions and estuaries are susceptible to various water-related disasters, such as river flooding and storm surge. Moreover, simultaneous occurrence of them would be more devastating than a situation where they occur in isolation. Therefore, it is important to provide information about compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, both their statistical dependency as well as their combined resulting flooding in delta regions. Here we report on a first attempt to address this issue globally by developing a method to couple a global river model (CaMa-Flood) and a global tide and surge reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. A state-of-the-art global river routing model, CaMa-Flood, was modified to represent varying sea levels due to tides and storm surges as downstream boundary condition, and the GTSR dataset was post-processed to serve as inputs to the CaMa-Flood river routing simulation and a long-term simulation was performed to incorporate the temporal dependency between coastal tide and surge on the one hand, and discharge on the other. The coupled model was validated against observations, showing better simulation results of water levels in deltaic regions than simulation without GTSR. For example in the Ganges Delta, correlation coefficients were increased by 0.06, and root mean square errors were reduced by 0.22 m. Global coupling simulations revealed that storm surges affected river water levels in coastal regions worldwide, especially in low-lying flat areas with increases in water level larger than 0.5 m. By employing enhanced storm surge simulation with tropical storm tracks, we also applied the model to examine impacts of past hurricane and cyclone storm events on river flood inundation.

  2. Snow-melt flood frequency analysis by means of copula based 2D probability distributions for the Narew River in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Ozga-Zielinski

    2016-06-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The results indicated that the 2D normal probability distribution model gives a better probabilistic description of snowmelt floods characterized by the 2-dimensional random variable (Qmax,f, Vf compared to the elliptical Gaussian copula and Archimedean 1-parameter Gumbel–Hougaard copula models, in particular from the view point of probability of exceedance as well as complexity and time of computation. Nevertheless, the copula approach offers a new perspective in estimating the 2D probability distribution for multidimensional random variables. Results showed that the 2D model for snowmelt floods built using the Gumbel–Hougaard copula is much better than the model built using the Gaussian copula.

  3. Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency—Bulletin 17C

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, John F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Faber, Beth A.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Thomas, Wilbert O.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Kiang, Julie E.; Mason, Robert R.

    2018-03-29

    Accurate estimates of flood frequency and magnitude are a key component of any effective nationwide flood risk management and flood damage abatement program. In addition to accuracy, methods for estimating flood risk must be uniformly and consistently applied because management of the Nation’s water and related land resources is a collaborative effort involving multiple actors including most levels of government and the private sector.Flood frequency guidelines have been published in the United States since 1967, and have undergone periodic revisions. In 1967, the U.S. Water Resources Council presented a coherent approach to flood frequency with Bulletin 15, “A Uniform Technique for Determining Flood Flow Frequencies.” The method it recommended involved fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution to annual peak flow data by the method of moments.The first extension and update of Bulletin 15 was published in 1976 as Bulletin 17, “Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency” (Guidelines). It extended the Bulletin 15 procedures by introducing methods for dealing with outliers, historical flood information, and regional skew. Bulletin 17A was published the following year to clarify the computation of weighted skew. The next revision of the Bulletin, the Bulletin 17B, provided a host of improvements and new techniques designed to address situations that often arise in practice, including better methods for estimating and using regional skew, weighting station and regional skew, detection of outliers, and use of the conditional probability adjustment.The current version of these Guidelines are presented in this document, denoted Bulletin 17C. It incorporates changes motivated by four of the items listed as “Future Work” in Bulletin 17B and 30 years of post-17B research on flood processes and statistical methods. The updates include: adoption of a generalized representation of flood data that allows for interval and censored data types; a new method

  4. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...

  5. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal floods during mid-loop operations. Volume 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohut, P.

    1994-07-01

    The major objective of the Surry internal flood analysis was to provide an improved understanding of the core damage scenarios arising from internal flood-related events. The mean core damage frequency of the Surry plant due to internal flood events during mid-loop operations is 4.8E-06 per year, and the 5th and 95th percentiles are 2.2E-07 and 1.8E-05 per year, respectively. Some limited sensitivity calculations were performed on three plant improvement options. The most significant result involves modifications of intake-level structure on the canal, which reduced core damage frequency contribution from floods in mid-loop by about 75%

  6. 210Pb and 137Cs as chronometers for salt marsh accretion in the Venice Lagoon - links to flooding frequency and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellucci, L.G.; Frignani, M.; Cochran, J.K.; Albertazzi, S.; Zaggia, L.; Cecconi, G.; Hopkins, H.

    2007-01-01

    Five salt marsh sediment cores from different parts of the Venice Lagoon were studied to determine their depositional history and its relationship with the environmental changes occurred during the past ∼100 years. X-radiographs of the cores show no disturbance related to particle mixing. Accretion rates were calculated using a constant flux model applied to excess 210 Pb distributions in the cores. The record of 137 Cs fluxes to the sites, determined from 137 Cs profiles and the 210 Pb chronologies, shows inputs from the global fallout of 137 Cs in the late 1950s to early 1960s and the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Average accretion rates in the cores are comparable to the long-term average rate of mean sea level rise in the Venice Lagoon (∼0.25 cm y -1 ) except for a core collected in a marsh presumably affected by inputs from the Dese River. Short-term variations in accretion rate are correlated with the cumulative frequency of flooding, as determined by records of Acqua Alta, in four of the five cores, suggesting that variations in the phenomena causing flooding (such as wind patterns, storm frequency and NAO) are short-term driving forces for variations in marsh accretion rate

  7. 210Pb and 137Cs as chronometers for salt marsh accretion in the Venice Lagoon - links to flooding frequency and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellucci, L G; Frignani, M; Cochran, J K; Albertazzi, S; Zaggia, L; Cecconi, G; Hopkins, H

    2007-01-01

    Five salt marsh sediment cores from different parts of the Venice Lagoon were studied to determine their depositional history and its relationship with the environmental changes occurred during the past approximately 100 years. X-radiographs of the cores show no disturbance related to particle mixing. Accretion rates were calculated using a constant flux model applied to excess (210)Pb distributions in the cores. The record of (137)Cs fluxes to the sites, determined from (137)Cs profiles and the (210)Pb chronologies, shows inputs from the global fallout of (137)Cs in the late 1950s to early 1960s and the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Average accretion rates in the cores are comparable to the long-term average rate of mean sea level rise in the Venice Lagoon ( approximately 0.25 cm y(-1)) except for a core collected in a marsh presumably affected by inputs from the Dese River. Short-term variations in accretion rate are correlated with the cumulative frequency of flooding, as determined by records of Acqua Alta, in four of the five cores, suggesting that variations in the phenomena causing flooding (such as wind patterns, storm frequency and NAO) are short-term driving forces for variations in marsh accretion rate.

  8. {sup 210}Pb and {sup 137}Cs as chronometers for salt marsh accretion in the Venice Lagoon - links to flooding frequency and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellucci, L.G. [Istituto di Scienze Marine - Sede di Bologna - Geologia Marina, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Via P. Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna (Italy)], E-mail: luca.bellucci@ismar.cnr.it; Frignani, M. [Istituto di Scienze Marine - Sede di Bologna - Geologia Marina, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Via P. Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna (Italy); Cochran, J.K. [Marine Sciences Research Center, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York 11794-5000, NY (United States); Albertazzi, S. [Istituto di Scienze Marine - Sede di Bologna - Geologia Marina, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Via P. Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna (Italy); Zaggia, L. [Istituto di Scienze Marine, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - S. Polo 1364, 30125 Venezia (Italy); Cecconi, G. [Consorzio Venezia Nuova - S. Croce 505, 30135 Venezia (Italy); Hopkins, H. [Marine Sciences Research Center, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York 11794-5000, NY (United States)

    2007-10-15

    Five salt marsh sediment cores from different parts of the Venice Lagoon were studied to determine their depositional history and its relationship with the environmental changes occurred during the past {approx}100 years. X-radiographs of the cores show no disturbance related to particle mixing. Accretion rates were calculated using a constant flux model applied to excess {sup 210}Pb distributions in the cores. The record of {sup 137}Cs fluxes to the sites, determined from {sup 137}Cs profiles and the {sup 210}Pb chronologies, shows inputs from the global fallout of {sup 137}Cs in the late 1950s to early 1960s and the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Average accretion rates in the cores are comparable to the long-term average rate of mean sea level rise in the Venice Lagoon ({approx}0.25 cm y{sup -1}) except for a core collected in a marsh presumably affected by inputs from the Dese River. Short-term variations in accretion rate are correlated with the cumulative frequency of flooding, as determined by records of Acqua Alta, in four of the five cores, suggesting that variations in the phenomena causing flooding (such as wind patterns, storm frequency and NAO) are short-term driving forces for variations in marsh accretion rate.

  9. Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheriton, Olivia; Storlazzi, Curt; Rosenberger, Kurt

    2016-01-01

    Many low-lying tropical islands are susceptible to sea level rise and often subjected to overwash and flooding during large wave events. To quantify wave dynamics and wave-driven water levels on fringing coral reefs, a 5 month deployment of wave gauges and a current meter was conducted across two shore-normal transects on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These observations captured two large wave events that had waves with maximum heights greater than 6 m with peak periods of 16 s over the fore reef. The larger event coincided with a peak spring tide, leading to energetic, highly skewed infragravity (0.04–0.004 Hz) and very low frequency (0.004–0.001 Hz) waves at the shoreline, which reached heights of 1.0 and 0.7 m, respectively. Water surface elevations, combined with wave runup, reached 3.7 m above the reef bed at the innermost reef flat adjacent to the toe of the beach, resulting in flooding of inland areas. This overwash occurred during a 3 h time window that coincided with high tide and maximum low-frequency reef flat wave heights. The relatively low-relief characteristics of this narrow reef flat may further drive shoreline amplification of low-frequency waves due to resonance modes. These results (1) demonstrate how the coupling of high offshore water levels with low-frequency reef flat wave energetics can lead to large impacts along fringing reef-lined shorelines, such as island overwash, and (2) lend support to the hypothesis that predicted higher sea levels will lead to more frequent occurrences of these extreme events, negatively impacting coastal resources and infrastructure.

  10. Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheriton, Olivia M.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Rosenberger, Kurt J.

    2016-05-01

    Many low-lying tropical islands are susceptible to sea level rise and often subjected to overwash and flooding during large wave events. To quantify wave dynamics and wave-driven water levels on fringing coral reefs, a 5 month deployment of wave gauges and a current meter was conducted across two shore-normal transects on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These observations captured two large wave events that had waves with maximum heights greater than 6 m with peak periods of 16 s over the fore reef. The larger event coincided with a peak spring tide, leading to energetic, highly skewed infragravity (0.04-0.004 Hz) and very low frequency (0.004-0.001 Hz) waves at the shoreline, which reached heights of 1.0 and 0.7 m, respectively. Water surface elevations, combined with wave runup, reached 3.7 m above the reef bed at the innermost reef flat adjacent to the toe of the beach, resulting in flooding of inland areas. This overwash occurred during a 3 h time window that coincided with high tide and maximum low-frequency reef flat wave heights. The relatively low-relief characteristics of this narrow reef flat may further drive shoreline amplification of low-frequency waves due to resonance modes. These results (1) demonstrate how the coupling of high offshore water levels with low-frequency reef flat wave energetics can lead to large impacts along fringing reef-lined shorelines, such as island overwash, and (2) lend support to the hypothesis that predicted higher sea levels will lead to more frequent occurrences of these extreme events, negatively impacting coastal resources and infrastructure.

  11. Phenomena induced by powerful HF pumping towards magnetic zenith with a frequency near the F-region critical frequency and the third electron gyro harmonic frequency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. F. Blagoveshchenskaya

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Multi-instrument observational data from an experiment on 13 October 2006 at the EISCAT/HEATING facility at Tromsø, Norway are analysed. The experiment was carried out in the evening hours when the electron density in the F-region dropped, and the HF pump frequency fH was near and then above the critical frequency of the F2 layer. The distinctive feature of this experiment is that the pump frequency was just below the third electron gyro harmonic frequency, while both the HF pump beam and UHF radar beam were directed towards the magnetic zenith (MZ. The HF pump-induced phenomena were diagnosed with several instruments: the bi-static HF radio scatter on the London-Tromsø-St. Petersburg path, the CUTLASS radar in Hankasalmi (Finland, the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT UHF radar at Tromsø and the Tromsø ionosonde (dynasonde. The results show thermal electron excitation of the HF-induced striations seen simultaneously from HF bi-static scatter and CUTLASS radar observations, accompanied by increases of electron temperature when the heater frequency was near and then above the critical frequency of the F2 layer by up to 0.4 MHz. An increase of the electron density up to 25% accompanied by strong HF-induced electron heating was observed, only when the heater frequency was near the critical frequency and just below the third electron gyro harmonic frequency. It is concluded that the combined effect of upper hybrid resonance and gyro resonance at the same altitude gives rise to strong electron heating, the excitation of striations, HF ray trapping and extension of HF waves to altitudes where they can excite Langmuir turbulence and fluxes of electrons accelerated to energies that produce ionization.

  12. Phenomena induced by powerful HF pumping towards magnetic zenith with a frequency near the F-region critical frequency and the third electron gyro harmonic frequency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. F. Blagoveshchenskaya

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Multi-instrument observational data from an experiment on 13 October 2006 at the EISCAT/HEATING facility at Tromsø, Norway are analysed. The experiment was carried out in the evening hours when the electron density in the F-region dropped, and the HF pump frequency fH was near and then above the critical frequency of the F2 layer. The distinctive feature of this experiment is that the pump frequency was just below the third electron gyro harmonic frequency, while both the HF pump beam and UHF radar beam were directed towards the magnetic zenith (MZ. The HF pump-induced phenomena were diagnosed with several instruments: the bi-static HF radio scatter on the London-Tromsø-St. Petersburg path, the CUTLASS radar in Hankasalmi (Finland, the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT UHF radar at Tromsø and the Tromsø ionosonde (dynasonde. The results show thermal electron excitation of the HF-induced striations seen simultaneously from HF bi-static scatter and CUTLASS radar observations, accompanied by increases of electron temperature when the heater frequency was near and then above the critical frequency of the F2 layer by up to 0.4 MHz. An increase of the electron density up to 25% accompanied by strong HF-induced electron heating was observed, only when the heater frequency was near the critical frequency and just below the third electron gyro harmonic frequency. It is concluded that the combined effect of upper hybrid resonance and gyro resonance at the same altitude gives rise to strong electron heating, the excitation of striations, HF ray trapping and extension of HF waves to altitudes where they can excite Langmuir turbulence and fluxes of electrons accelerated to energies that produce ionization.

  13. Use of historical information in extreme surge frequency estimation: case of the marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

    2014-09-01

    Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g. 1000 year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) had shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea levels data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the Peaks-Over-Threshold method with HI (POTH) and the Block Maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical Historical Maxima (HMax) data, and Over a Threshold Supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where

  14. Use of historical information in extreme-surge frequency estimation: the case of marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

    2015-07-01

    Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear-plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g., 1000-year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) have shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme-surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea level data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the peaks-over-threshold method with HI (POTH) and the block maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical historical maxima (HMax) data, and over-a-threshold supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where

  15. Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

  16. Methods of flood extent mapping using SAR imagery in the Zambezi (Caprivi) Region, Namibia

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kemp, J

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available mapping using SAR imagery in the Zambezi (Caprivi) Region, Namibia Jaco Kemp1, Mariel Bessinger1, Melanie Luck-Vogel2 y o u r k n o w l e d g e p a r t n e r Department of Geography and Environmental Studies 2 Zambezi Region y o... u r k n o w l e d g e p a r t n e r Department of Geography and Environmental Studies 3 Zambezi Region y o u r k n o w l e d g e p a r t n e r Department of Geography and Environmental Studies 4 Zambezi...

  17. The flood in August 1880 – one of the most severe natural disasterts of the 19th century in the Ostrava region (Czech Republic)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Munzar, Jan; Ondráček, Stanislav; Řehánek, T.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 3 (2007), s. 25-33 ISSN 1210-8812 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300860601 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : flood * Odra river * Ostrava region * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

  18. Techniques of remote sensing and GIS as tools for visualizing impact of climate change-induced flood in the southern African region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study employs remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) data to visualize the impact of climate change caused by flooding in the Southern African region in order to assist decision makers’ plans for future occurrences. In pursuit of this objective, this study uses Digital Elevat...

  19. A Cross-cultural Analytical Framework for Territorial Development Policies : The Application to Flood Risk Management Policies in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rongwinriyaphanich, S.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the application of a proposed analytical framework that takes cultural dimensions as main parameters to explain territorial development processes. It is illustrated through the analysis of flood risk management in two case study areas in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region. It aims

  20. An Application of a Stochastic Semi-Continuous Simulation Method for Flood Frequency Analysis: A Case Study in Slovakia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valent, Peter; Paquet, Emmanuel

    2017-09-01

    A reliable estimate of extreme flood characteristics has always been an active topic in hydrological research. Over the decades a large number of approaches and their modifications have been proposed and used, with various methods utilizing continuous simulation of catchment runoff, being the subject of the most intensive research in the last decade. In this paper a new and promising stochastic semi-continuous method is used to estimate extreme discharges in two mountainous Slovak catchments of the rivers Váh and Hron, in which snow-melt processes need to be taken into account. The SCHADEX method used, couples a precipitation probabilistic model with a rainfall-runoff model used to both continuously simulate catchment hydrological conditions and to transform generated synthetic rainfall events into corresponding discharges. The stochastic nature of the method means that a wide range of synthetic rainfall events were simulated on various historical catchment conditions, taking into account not only the saturation of soil, but also the amount of snow accumulated in the catchment. The results showed that the SCHADEX extreme discharge estimates with return periods of up to 100 years were comparable to those estimated by statistical approaches. In addition, two reconstructed historical floods with corresponding return periods of 100 and 1000 years were compared to the SCHADEX estimates. The results confirmed the usability of the method for estimating design discharges with a recurrence interval of more than 100 years and its applicability in Slovak conditions.

  1. Large Scale Processes and Extreme Floods in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro Lima, C. H.; AghaKouchak, A.; Lall, U.

    2016-12-01

    Persistent large scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and ocean state have been associated with heavy rainfall and extreme floods in water basins of different sizes across the world. Such studies have emerged in the last years as a new tool to improve the traditional, stationary based approach in flood frequency analysis and flood prediction. Here we seek to advance previous studies by evaluating the dominance of large scale processes (e.g. atmospheric rivers/moisture transport) over local processes (e.g. local convection) in producing floods. We consider flood-prone regions in Brazil as case studies and the role of large scale climate processes in generating extreme floods in such regions is explored by means of observed streamflow, reanalysis data and machine learning methods. The dynamics of the large scale atmospheric circulation in the days prior to the flood events are evaluated based on the vertically integrated moisture flux and its divergence field, which are interpreted in a low-dimensional space as obtained by machine learning techniques, particularly supervised kernel principal component analysis. In such reduced dimensional space, clusters are obtained in order to better understand the role of regional moisture recycling or teleconnected moisture in producing floods of a given magnitude. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) is also used as a measure of local convection activities. We investigate for individual sites the exceedance probability in which large scale atmospheric fluxes dominate the flood process. Finally, we analyze regional patterns of floods and how the scaling law of floods with drainage area responds to changes in the climate forcing mechanisms (e.g. local vs large scale).

  2. Comparison of automatic procedures in the selection of peaks over threshold in flood frequency analysis: A Canadian case study in the context of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durocher, M.; Mostofi Zadeh, S.; Burn, D. H.; Ashkar, F.

    2017-12-01

    Floods are one of the most costly hazards and frequency analysis of river discharges is an important part of the tools at our disposal to evaluate their inherent risks and to provide an adequate response. In comparison to the common examination of annual streamflow maximums, peaks over threshold (POT) is an interesting alternative that makes better use of the available information by including more than one flood event per year (on average). However, a major challenge is the selection of a satisfactory threshold above which peaks are assumed to respect certain conditions necessary for an adequate estimation of the risk. Additionally, studies have shown that POT is also a valuable approach to investigate the evolution of flood regimes in the context of climate change. Recently, automatic procedures for the selection of the threshold were suggested to guide that important choice, which otherwise rely on graphical tools and expert judgment. Furthermore, having an automatic procedure that is objective allows for quickly repeating the analysis on a large number of samples, which is useful in the context of large databases or for uncertainty analysis based on a resampling approach. This study investigates the impact of considering such procedures in a case study including many sites across Canada. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the bias and predictive power of the automatic procedures in similar conditions as well as investigating the power of derived nonstationarity tests. The results obtained are also evaluated in the light of expert judgments established in a previous study. Ultimately, this study provides a thorough examination of the considerations that need to be addressed when conducting POT analysis using automatic threshold selection.

  3. The Complex Relationship Between Heavy Storms and Floods: Implication on Stormwater Drainage design and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Y.; Mortuza, M. R.; Moges, E.; Yan, E.; Li, H. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Due to the lack of historical and future streamflow data for flood frequency analysis at or near most drainage sites, it is a common practice to directly estimate the design flood (maximum discharge or volume of stream for a given return period) based on storm frequency analysis and the resulted Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. Such analysis assumes a direct relationship between storms and floods with, for example, the 10-year rainfall expected to produce the 10-year flood. However, in reality, a storm is just one factor among the many other hydrological and metrological factors that can affect the peak flow and hydrograph. Consequently, a heavy storm does not necessarily always lead to flooding or a flood events with the same frequency. This is evident by the observed difference in the seasonality of heavy storms and floods in most regions. In order to understand site specific causal-effect relationship between heavy storms and floods and improve the flood analysis for stormwater drainage design and management, we have examined the contributions of various factors that affect floods using statistical and information theory methods. Based on the identified dominant causal-effect relationships, hydrologic and probability analyses were conducted to develop the runoff IDF curves taking into consideration the snowmelt and rain-on-snow effect, the difference in the storm and flood seasonality, soil moisture conditions, and catchment potential for flash and riverine flooding. The approach was demonstrated using data from military installations located in different parts of the United States. The accuracy of the flood frequency analysis and the resulted runoff IDF curves were evaluated based on the runoff IDF curves developed from streamflow measurements.

  4. On identifying relationships between the flood scaling exponent and basin attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medhi, Hemanta; Tripathi, Shivam

    2015-07-01

    Floods are known to exhibit self-similarity and follow scaling laws that form the basis of regional flood frequency analysis. However, the relationship between basin attributes and the scaling behavior of floods is still not fully understood. Identifying these relationships is essential for drawing connections between hydrological processes in a basin and the flood response of the basin. The existing studies mostly rely on simulation models to draw these connections. This paper proposes a new methodology that draws connections between basin attributes and the flood scaling exponents by using observed data. In the proposed methodology, region-of-influence approach is used to delineate homogeneous regions for each gaging station. Ordinary least squares regression is then applied to estimate flood scaling exponents for each homogeneous region, and finally stepwise regression is used to identify basin attributes that affect flood scaling exponents. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is tested by applying it to data from river basins in the United States. The results suggest that flood scaling exponent is small for regions having (i) large abstractions from precipitation in the form of large soil moisture storages and high evapotranspiration losses, and (ii) large fractions of overland flow compared to base flow, i.e., regions having fast-responding basins. Analysis of simple scaling and multiscaling of floods showed evidence of simple scaling for regions in which the snowfall dominates the total precipitation.

  5. Improving Flood Risk Maps as a Capacity Building Activity: Fostering Public Participation and Raising Flood Risk Awareness in the German Mulde Region (project RISK MAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luther, J.; Meyer, V.; Kuhlicke, C.; Scheuer, S.; Unnerstall, H.

    2012-04-01

    The EU Floods Directive requires the establishment of flood risk maps for high risk areas in all EU Member States by 2013. However, if existing at all, the current practice of risk mapping still shows some deficits: Risk maps are often seen as an information tool rather than a communication tool. This means that e.g. important local knowledge is not incorporated and forms a contrast to the understanding of capacity building which calls for engaging individuals in the process of learning and adapting to change and for the establishment of a more interactive public administration that learns equally from its actions and from the feedback it receives. Furthermore, the contents of risk maps often do not match the requirements of the end users, so that risk maps are often designed and visualised in a way which cannot be easily understood by laypersons and/or which is not suitable for the respective needs of public authorities in risk and flood event management. The project RISK MAP aimed at improving flood risk maps as a means to foster public participation and raising flood risk awareness. For achieving this aim, RISK MAP (1) developed rules for appropriate stakeholder participation enabling the incorporation of local knowledge and preferences; (2) improved the content of risk maps by considering different risk criteria through the use of a deliberative multicriteria risk mapping tool; and (3) improved the visualisation of risk maps in order to produce user-friendly risk maps by applying the experimental graphic semiology (EGS) method that uses the eye tracking approach. The research was carried out in five European case studies where the status quo of risk mapping and the legal framework was analysed, several stakeholder interviews and workshops were conducted, the visual perception of risk maps was tested and - based on this empirical work - exemplary improved risk maps were produced. The presentation and paper will outline the main findings of the project which

  6. Understanding the geomorphology of macrochannel systems for flood risk management in Queensland, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Chris; Croke, Jacky

    2016-04-01

    The year 2010-2011 was the wettest on record for the state of Queensland, Australia producing catastrophic floods. A tropical low pressure system in 2013 delivered further extreme flood events across South East Queensland (SEQ) which prompted state and local governments to conduct studies into flood magnitude and frequency in the region and catchment factors contributing to flood hazards. The floods in the region are strongly influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, but also modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) which leads to flood and drought dominated regimes and high hydrological variability. One geomorphic feature in particular exerted a significant control on the transmission speed, the magnitude of flood inundation and resultant landscape resilience. This feature was referred to as a 'macrochannel', a term used to describe a 'large-channel' which has bankfull recurrence intervals generally greater than 10 years. The macrochannels display non-linear downstream hydraulic geometry which leads to zones of flood expansion (when hydraulic geometry decreases) and zones of flood contraction (when hydraulic geometry increases). The pattern of contraction and expansion zones determines flood hazard zones. The floods caused significant wet flow bank mass failures that mobilised over 1,000,000 m3 of sediment in one subcatchment. Results suggest that the wetflow bank mass failures are a stage in a cyclical evolution process which maintains the macrochannel morphology, hence channel resilience to floods. Chronological investigations further show the macrochannels are laterally stable and identify periods of heightened flood activity over the past millennium and upper limits on flood magnitude. This paper elaborates on the results of the geomorphic investigations on Lockyer Creek in SEQ and how the results have alerted managers and policy makers to the different flood responses of these systems and how flood risk management plans can

  7. A Multimethod Approach towards Assessing Urban Flood Patterns and Its Associated Vulnerabilities in Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winston T. L. Chow

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigated flooding patterns in the urbanised city-state of Singapore through a multimethod approach combining station precipitation data with archival newspaper and governmental records; changes in flash floods frequencies or reported impacts of floods towards Singapore society were documented. We subsequently discussed potential flooding impacts in the context of urban vulnerability, based on future urbanisation and forecasted precipitation projections for Singapore. We find that, despite effective flood management, (i significant increases in reported flash flood frequency occurred in contemporary (post-2000 relative to preceding (1984–1999 periods, (ii these flash floods coincide with more localised, “patchy” storm events, (iii storms in recent years are also more intense and frequent, and (iv floods result in low human casualties but have high economic costs via insurance damage claims. We assess that Singapore presently has low vulnerability to floods vis-à-vis other regional cities largely due to holistic flood management via consistent and successful infrastructural development, widespread flood monitoring, and effective advisory platforms. We conclude, however, that future vulnerabilities may increase from stresses arising from physical exposure to climate change and from demographic sensitivity via rapid population growth. Anticipating these changes is potentially useful in maintaining the high resilience of Singapore towards this hydrometeorological hazard.

  8. Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glur, Lukas; Wirth, Stefanie B; Büntgen, Ulf; Gilli, Adrian; Haug, Gerald H; Schär, Christoph; Beer, Jürg; Anselmetti, Flavio S

    2013-09-26

    Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change.

  9. ANALYSIS OF PROJECTED FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY CHANGES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE CARPATHIAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KIS ANNA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation is the major atmospheric source of surface water, thus, in order to build appropriate adaptation strategies for various economic sections related to water resources it is essential to provide projections for precipitation tendencies as exact as possible. Extreme precipitation events are especially important from this point of view since they may result in different environmental, economical, and/or even human health damages. Excessive precipitation for instance may induce floods, flash-floods, landslides, traffic accidents. On the other hand, lack of precipitation is not favorable either: long dry periods affect agricultural production quite negatively, and hence, food safety can be threatened. Several precipitation-related indices (i.e., describing drought or intensity, exceeding different percentile-based or absolute threshold values are analyzed for the Carpathian region for 1961–2100. For this purpose 11 completed regional climate model simulations are used from the ENSEMBLES database. Before the thorough analysis, a percentile-based bias correction method was applied to the raw data, for which the homogenized daily gridded CarpatClim database (1961–2010 served as a reference. Absolute and relative seasonal mean changes of climate indices are calculated for two future time periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100 and for three subregions within the entire Carpathian region, namely, for Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. According to our results, longer dry periods are estimated for the summer season, mainly in the southern parts of the domain, while precipitation intensity is likely to increase. Heavy precipitation days and high percentile values are projected to increase, especially, in winter and autumn.

  10. Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

    2015-04-01

    , Oc-gok Basin in Republic of Korea and the haor region of Bangladesh. Keywords: flood index, flood risk management, flood characteristics

  11. Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

    2013-12-01

    In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

  12. A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of flood management measures based on the concept of "retaining water in the landscape" in different European hydro-climatic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Salazar

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we analyse the effectiveness of flood management measures based on the concept known as "retaining water in the landscape". The investigated measures include afforestation, micro-ponds and small-reservoirs. A comparative and model-based methodological approach has been developed and applied for three meso-scale catchments located in different European hydro-climatological regions: Poyo (184 km2 in the Spanish Mediterranean, Upper Iller (954 km2 in the German Alps and Kamp (621 km2 in Northeast-Austria representing the Continental hydro-climate. This comparative analysis has found general similarities in spite of the particular differences among studied areas. In general terms, the flood reduction through the concept of "retaining water in the landscape" depends on the following factors: the storage capacity increase in the catchment resulting from such measures, the characteristics of the rainfall event, the antecedent soil moisture condition and the spatial distribution of such flood management measures in the catchment. In general, our study has shown that, this concept is effective for small and medium events, but almost negligible for the largest and less frequent floods: this holds true for all different hydro-climatic regions, and with different land-use, soils and morphological settings.

  13. Weather Typing-Based Flood Frequency Analysis Verified for Exceptional Historical Events of Past 500 Years Along the Meuse River

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Niel, J.; Demarée, G.; Willems, P.

    2017-10-01

    Governments, policy makers, and water managers are pushed by recent socioeconomic developments such as population growth and increased urbanization inclusive of occupation of floodplains to impose very stringent regulations on the design of hydrological structures. These structures need to withstand storms with return periods typically ranging between 1,250 and 10,000 years. Such quantification involves extrapolations of systematically measured instrumental data, possibly complemented by quantitative and/or qualitative historical data and paleoflood data. The accuracy of the extrapolations is, however, highly unclear in practice. In order to evaluate extreme river peak flow extrapolation and accuracy, we studied historical and instrumental data of the past 500 years along the Meuse River. We moreover propose an alternative method for the estimation of the extreme value distribution of river peak flows, based on weather types derived by sea level pressure reconstructions. This approach results in a more accurate estimation of the tail of the distribution, where current methods are underestimating the design levels related to extreme high return periods. The design flood for a 1,250 year return period is estimated at 4,800 m3 s-1 for the proposed method, compared with 3,450 and 3,900 m3 s-1 for a traditional method and a previous study.

  14. On the stationarity of Floods in west African rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    NKA, B. N.; Oudin, L.; Karambiri, H.; Ribstein, P.; Paturel, J. E.

    2014-12-01

    West Africa undergoes a big change since the years 1970-1990, characterized by very low precipitation amounts, leading to low stream flows in river basins, except in the Sahelian region where the impact of human activities where pointed out to justify the substantial increase of floods in some catchments. More recently, studies showed an increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events, and according to observations made over the region, increase of flood events is also noticeable during the rainy season. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity on flood events is questionable and the reliability of flood evolution and climatic patterns is justified. In this work, we analyzed the trends of floods events for several catchments in the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of Burkina Faso. We used thirteen tributaries of large river basins (Niger, Nakambe, Mouhoun, Comoé) for which daily rainfall and flow data were collected from national hydrological and meteorological services of the country. We used Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests to detect trends and break points in the annual time series of 8 rainfall indices and the annual maximum discharge records. We compare the trends of precipitation indices and flood size records to analyze the possible causality link between floods size and rainfall pattern. We also analyze the stationary of the frequency of flood exceeding the ten year return period level. The samples were extracted by a Peak over threshold method and the quantification of change in flood frequency was assessed by using a test developed by Lang M. (1995). The results exhibit two principal behaviors. Generally speaking, no trend is detected on catchments annual maximum discharge, but positive break points are pointed out in a group of three right bank tributaries of the Niger river that are located in the sahelian region between 300mm to 650mm. These same catchments show as well an increase of the yearly number of flood greater than the ten year flood since

  15. Mercury net methylation in five tropical flood plain regions of Brazil: high in the root zone of floating macrophyte mats but low in surface sediments and flooded soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães, J R; Meili, M; Hylander, L D; de Castro e Silva, E; Roulet, M; Mauro, J B; de Lemos, R

    2000-10-16

    In aquatic systems, bottom sediments have often been considered as the main methylmercury (MeHg) production site. In tropical floodplain areas, however, floating meadows and flooded forests extend over large areas and can be important Hg methylating sites. We present here a cross-system comparison of the Hg net methylation capacity in surface sediments, flooded soils and roots of floating aquatic macrophytes, assayed by in situ incubation with 203Hg and extraction of formed Me203 Hg by acid leaching and toluene. The presence of mono-MeHg was confirmed by thin layer chromatography and other techniques. Study areas included floodplain lakes in the Amazon basin (Tapajós, Negro and Amazon rivers), the Pantanal floodplain (Paraguay river basin), freshwater coastal lagoons in Rio de Janeiro and oxbow lakes in the Mogi-Guaçú river, São Paulo state. Different Hg levels were added in assays performed in 1994-1998, but great care was taken to standardise all other test parameters, to allow data comparisons. Net MeHg production was one order of magnitude higher (mean 13.8%, range 0.28-35) in the living or decomposing roots of floating or rooted macrophyte mats (Eichhornia azurea, E. crassipes, Paspalum sp., Eleocharis sellowiana, Salvinia sp., S. rotundifolia and Scirpus cubensis) than in the surface layer of underlying lake sediments (mean 0.6%, range 0.022-2.5). Methylation in flooded soils presented a wide range and was in some cases similar to the one found in macrophyte roots but usually much lower. In a Tapajós floodplain lake, natural concentrations of MeHg in soil and sediment cores taken along a lake-forest transect agreed well with data on net methylation potentials in the same samples. E. azurea, E. crassipes and Salvinia presented the highest methylation potentials, up to 113 times higher than in sediments. Methylation in E. azurea from six lakes of the Paraguay and Cuiabá rivers, high Pantanal, was determined in the 1998 dry and wet seasons and ranged from

  16. Region-of-influence approach to a frequency analysis of heavy precipitation in Slovakia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, L.; Kyselý, Jan; Szolgay, J.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 4 (2007), s. 2361-2401 ISSN 1812-2108 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420601 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : regional frequency analysis * region-of-influence approach * pooling groups * extreme precipitation events * L-moments * Slovakia Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/4/2361/2007/

  17. Region-of-influence approach to a frequency analysis of heavy precipitation in Slovakia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, L.; Kyselý, Jan; Szolgay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 3 (2008), s. 825-839 ISSN 1027-5606 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420601 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : regional frequency analysis * region-of-influence approach * pooling groups * extreme precipitation events * L-moments * Slovakia Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.167, year: 2008 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/825/2008/

  18. The regional geography of alcohol consumption in England: Comparing drinking frequency and binge drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Javier Malda; Jivraj, Stephen; Ng Fat, Linda

    2017-01-01

    Alcohol consumption frequency and volume are known to be related to health problems among drinkers. Most of the existing literature that analyses regional variation in drinking behaviour uses measures of consumption that relate only to volume, such as 'binge drinking'. This study compares the regional association of alcohol consumption using measures of drinking frequency (daily drinking) and volume (binge drinking) using a nationally representative sample of residents using the Health Survey for England, 2011-2013. Results suggest the presence of two differentiated drinking patterns with relevant policy implications. We find that people in northern regions are more likely to binge drink, whereas people in southern regions are more likely to drink on most days. Regression analysis shows that regional variation in binge drinking remains strong when taking into account individual and neighbourhood level controls. The findings provide support for regional targeting of interventions that aim to reduce the frequency as well as volume of drinking. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS: a case study for the San Antonio River Basin Summer 2002 storm event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knebl, M R; Yang, Z-L; Hutchison, K; Maidment, D R

    2005-06-01

    This paper develops a framework for regional scale flood modeling that integrates NEXRAD Level III rainfall, GIS, and a hydrological model (HEC-HMS/RAS). The San Antonio River Basin (about 4000 square miles, 10,000 km2) in Central Texas, USA, is the domain of the study because it is a region subject to frequent occurrences of severe flash flooding. A major flood in the summer of 2002 is chosen as a case to examine the modeling framework. The model consists of a rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS) that converts precipitation excess to overland flow and channel runoff, as well as a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) that models unsteady state flow through the river channel network based on the HEC-HMS-derived hydrographs. HEC-HMS is run on a 4 x 4 km grid in the domain, a resolution consistent with the resolution of NEXRAD rainfall taken from the local river authority. Watershed parameters are calibrated manually to produce a good simulation of discharge at 12 subbasins. With the calibrated discharge, HEC-RAS is capable of producing floodplain polygons that are comparable to the satellite imagery. The modeling framework presented in this study incorporates a portion of the recently developed GIS tool named Map to Map that has been created on a local scale and extends it to a regional scale. The results of this research will benefit future modeling efforts by providing a tool for hydrological forecasts of flooding on a regional scale. While designed for the San Antonio River Basin, this regional scale model may be used as a prototype for model applications in other areas of the country.

  20. Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

    2016-12-01

    Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the

  1. Flooded native pastures of the northern region of the Pantanal of Mato Grosso: biomass and primary productivity variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. G. Pozer

    Full Text Available The Pantanal comprises a number of landscape units, submitted to a flood pulse with variable intensity or regularity. One of these units, the flooded plains, is important in cattle raising. This study was carried out in the northern portion of the Pantanal and presents data related to the productive dynamics of the flooded native pastures both protected from and exposed to cattle. The greatest total biomass values were for the protected pasture due to accumulated dead biomass. Net primary production presented smaller values at the flood-season start and increasing gradually beginning in the subsequent rainy season. However, consumption by cattle was also more intense during the months of greater precipitation. The effect of cattle in pastures is of fundamental importance to management since it prevents the dead biomass excess that increases fire risks.

  2. Withholding or withdrawing therapy in Danish regional ICUs: frequency, patient characteristics and decision process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, H I; Ammentorp, J; Ørding, H

    2011-01-01

    New options for intensive therapy have increased the necessity of considering withholding or withdrawing therapy at intensive care units (ICUs), but the practice varies according to regional and cultural differences. The aim of this study was to investigate the frequency of withholding or withdra...

  3. Experimental low-frequency sound equalization in an extended region of an enclosure using adaptive filters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orozco-Santillán, Arturo

    1998-01-01

    An experimental investigation of sound equalization in an extended region inside an enclosure is presented. DSP and the multiple LMS algorithm is used to obtain the optimal solution. Equalization at single frequencies in the stationary state is studied. Also analyzed is the equalization of band...

  4. The use of geostationary satellite based rainfall estimation and rainfall-runoff modelling for regional flash flood assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Suseno, Dwi Prabowo Yuga

    2013-01-01

    The availability of rainfall triggered hazard information such as flash flood is crucial in the flood disaster management and mitigation. However, providing that information is mainly hampered by the shortage of data because of the sparse, uneven or absence the hydrological or meteorological observation. Remote sensing techniques that make frequent observations with continuous spatial coverage provide useful information for detecting the hydrometeorological phenomena such as rainfall and floo...

  5. Application of Flood Nomograph for Flood Forecasting in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eui Hoon Lee

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Imperviousness has increased due to urbanization, as has the frequency of extreme rainfall events by climate change. Various countermeasures, such as structural and nonstructural measures, are required to prepare for these effects. Flood forecasting is a representative nonstructural measure. Flood forecasting techniques have been developed for the prevention of repetitive flood damage in urban areas. It is difficult to apply some flood forecasting techniques using training processes because training needs to be applied at every usage. The other flood forecasting techniques that use rainfall data predicted by radar are not appropriate for small areas, such as single drainage basins. In this study, a new flood forecasting technique is suggested to reduce flood damage in urban areas. The flood nomograph consists of the first flooding nodes in rainfall runoff simulations with synthetic rainfall data at each duration. When selecting the first flooding node, the initial amount of synthetic rainfall is 1 mm, which increases in 1 mm increments until flooding occurs. The advantage of this flood forecasting technique is its simple application using real-time rainfall data. This technique can be used to prepare a preemptive response in the process of urban flood management.

  6. Increased frequency of retinopathy of prematurity over the last decade and significant regional differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmström, Gerd; Tornqvist, Kristina; Al-Hawasi, Abbas; Nilsson, Åsa; Wallin, Agneta; Hellström, Ann

    2018-03-01

    Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) causes childhood blindness globally in prematurely born infants. Although increased levels of oxygen supply lead to increased survival and reduced frequency of cerebral palsy, increased incidence of ROP is reported. With the help of a Swedish register for ROP, SWEDROP, national and regional incidences of ROP and frequencies of treatment were evaluated from 2008 to 2015 (n = 5734), as well as before and after targets of provided oxygen changed from 85-89% to 91-95% in 2014. Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) was found in 31.9% (1829/5734) of all infants with a gestational age (GA) of <31 weeks at birth and 5.7% of the infants (329/5734) had been treated for ROP. Analyses of the national data revealed an increased incidence of ROP during the 8-year study period (p = 0.003), but there was no significant increase in the frequency of treatment. There were significant differences between the seven health regions of Sweden, regarding both incidence of ROP and frequency of treatment (p < 0.001). Comparison of regional data before and after the new oxygen targets revealed a significant increase in treated ROP in one region [OR: 2.24 (CI: 1.11-4.49), p = 0.024] and a borderline increase in one other [OR: 3.08 (CI: 0.99-9.60), p = 0.052]. The Swedish national ROP register revealed an increased incidence of ROP during an 8-year period and significant regional differences regarding the incidence of ROP and frequency of treatment. © 2017 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. The heavy rains and floods on 17 and 18 December 2016 in the Region of Murcia, with particular focus on the Mar Menor Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Espín Sánchez

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The heavy rains on December 17-18, 2016 were one of the most significant events that have occurred in southeastern Spain over the last two decades. In the present study the incidence of these rains in the Region of Murcia, and especially in the Mar Menor watershed, is analyzed, with particular focus on the flooded areas. The synoptic situation and the atmospheric dynamics were studied through monitoring of different METEOSAT´s satellite bands, images from weather radars and data from atmospheric soundings. A map showing the accumulated rainfall during the event and another one concerning the pluviometric anomaly of December 2016 in comparison with the average for this month in the period from 1981 to 2010 were produced using precipitation data of 129 weather stations belonging to different organizations. The maximum precipitation reached in 1 and 12 hours for a total of 64 stations was also analyzed, in relation to the thresholds and alarm levels which are established by AEMET. Finally, two hydrometeorological methods, the SCS Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph -SCS DUH- and the Témez’s Unit Hydrograph Method -TUH-, were used in order to estimate the flood-peak discharges in ephemeral streams flowing to the Mar Menor, which led to flooding in the Alcazares area. In accordance with the more consistent results of SCS DUH, the flood-peak discharges caused in this area by the Albujón and Maraña ramblas were estimated to be around 820 and 258 m3/s respectively.

  8. Flood Mapping and Flood Dynamics of the Mekong Delta: ENVISAT-ASAR-WSM Based Time Series Analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Dech

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Satellite remote sensing is a valuable tool for monitoring flooding. Microwave sensors are especially appropriate instruments, as they allow the differentiation of inundated from non-inundated areas, regardless of levels of solar illumination or frequency of cloud cover in regions experiencing substantial rainy seasons. In the current study we present the longest synthetic aperture radar-based time series of flood and inundation information derived for the Mekong Delta that has been analyzed for this region so far. We employed overall 60 Envisat ASAR Wide Swath Mode data sets at a spatial resolution of 150 meters acquired during the years 2007–2011 to facilitate a thorough understanding of the flood regime in the Mekong Delta. The Mekong Delta in southern Vietnam comprises 13 provinces and is home to 18 million inhabitants. Extreme dry seasons from late December to May and wet seasons from June to December characterize people’s rural life. In this study, we show which areas of the delta are frequently affected by floods and which regions remain dry all year round. Furthermore, we present which areas are flooded at which frequency and elucidate the patterns of flood progression over the course of the rainy season. In this context, we also examine the impact of dykes on floodwater emergence and assess the relationship between retrieved flood occurrence patterns and land use. In addition, the advantages and shortcomings of ENVISAT ASAR-WSM based flood mapping are discussed. The results contribute to a comprehensive understanding of Mekong Delta flood dynamics in an environment where the flow regime is influenced by the Mekong River, overland water-flow, anthropogenic floodwater control, as well as the tides.

  9. Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

    2016-04-01

    Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches

  10. Regional price differences and food consumption frequency among elementary school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturm, R; Datar, A

    2011-03-01

    Food prices may affect diet and weight gain among youth and lead to geographic disparities in obesity. This paper examines the association between regional prices and consumption frequency of fruit/vegetables and snack items among elementary school children in the USA. Observational study using individual-level survey data of fifth-grade children (average age 11 years) and regional food prices based on store visits in 2004. Dependent variables are self-reported consumption frequency in fifth grade; primary explanatory variables are metropolitan area food prices relative to cost of living. Multivariate regression analysis. Price variation across metropolitan areas exists, and lower real prices for vegetables and fruits predict significantly higher intake frequency. Higher dairy prices predict lower frequency of milk consumption, while higher meat prices predict increased milk consumption. Similar price effects were not found for fast food or soft drink consumption. The geographic variation in food prices across the USA is sufficiently large to affect dietary patterns among youth for fruit, vegetables and milk. The price variation is either too small to affect children's consumption frequency of fast food or soft drinks, or the consumption of these foods is less price sensitive. Copyright © 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Comparison between changes in flood hazard and risk in Spain using historical information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Mediero, Luis; Garrote, Luis; Gilabert, Joan

    2015-04-01

    Recently, the COST Action ES0901 "European procedures for flood frequency estimation (FloodFreq)" had as objective "the comparison and evaluation of methods for flood frequency estimation under the various climatologic and geographic conditions found in Europe". It was highlighted the improvement of regional analyses on at-site estimates, in terms of the uncertainty of quantile estimates. In the case of Spain, a regional analysis was carried out at a national scale, which allows identifying the flow threshold corresponding to a given return period from the observed flow series recorded at a gauging station. In addition, Mediero et al. (2014) studied the possible influence of non-stationarity on flood series for the period 1942-2009. In parallel, Barnolas and Llasat (2007), among others, collected documentary information of catastrophic flood events in Spain for the last centuries. Traditionally, the first approach ("top-down") usually identifies a flood as catastrophic, when its exceeds the 500-year return period flood. However, the second one ("bottom-up approach") accounts for flood damages (Llasat et al, 2005). This study presents a comparison between both approaches, discussing the potential factors that can lead to discrepancies between them, as well as accounting for information about major changes experienced in the catchment that could lead to changes in flood hazard and risk.

  12. Exploitation of Documented Historical Floods for Achieving Better Flood Defense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slobodan Kolaković

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Establishing Base Flood Elevation for a stream network corresponding to a big catchment is feasible by interdisciplinary approach, involving stochastic hydrology, river hydraulics, and computer aided simulations. A numerical model calibrated by historical floods has been exploited in this study. The short presentation of the catchment of the Tisza River in this paper is followed by the overview of historical floods which hit the region in the documented period of 130 years. Several well documented historical floods provided opportunity for the calibration of the chosen numerical model. Once established, the model could be used for investigation of different extreme flood scenarios and to establish the Base Flood Elevation. The calibration has shown that the coefficient of friction in case of the Tisza River is dependent both on the actual water level and on the preceding flood events. The effect of flood plain maintenance as well as the activation of six potential detention ponds on flood mitigation has been examined. Furthermore, the expected maximum water levels have also been determined for the case if the ever observed biggest 1888 flood hit the region again. The investigated cases of flood superposition highlighted the impact of tributary Maros on flood mitigation along the Tisza River.

  13. Historical and future drought in Bangladesh using copula-based bivariate regional frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortuza, Md Rubayet; Moges, Edom; Demissie, Yonas; Li, Hong-Yi

    2018-02-01

    The study aims at regional and probabilistic evaluation of bivariate drought characteristics to assess both the past and future drought duration and severity in Bangladesh. The procedures involve applying (1) standardized precipitation index to identify drought duration and severity, (2) regional frequency analysis to determine the appropriate marginal distributions for both duration and severity, (3) copula model to estimate the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and (4) precipitation projections from multiple climate models to assess future drought trends. Since drought duration and severity in Bangladesh are often strongly correlated and do not follow same marginal distributions, the joint and conditional return periods of droughts are characterized using the copula-based joint distribution. The country is divided into three homogeneous regions using Fuzzy clustering and multivariate discordancy and homogeneity measures. For given severity and duration values, the joint return periods for a drought to exceed both values are on average 45% larger, while to exceed either value are 40% less than the return periods from the univariate frequency analysis, which treats drought duration and severity independently. These suggest that compared to the bivariate drought frequency analysis, the standard univariate frequency analysis under/overestimate the frequency and severity of droughts depending on how their duration and severity are related. Overall, more frequent and severe droughts are observed in the west side of the country. Future drought trend based on four climate models and two scenarios showed the possibility of less frequent drought in the future (2020-2100) than in the past (1961-2010).

  14. Flooding PSA with Plant Specific Operating Experiences of Korean PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joon Yull

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to update the flooding PSA with Korean plant specific operating experience data and the appropriate estimation method for the flooding frequency to improve the PSA quality. The existing flooding PSA used the NPE (Nuclear Power Experience) database up to 1985 for the flooding frequency. They are all USA plant operating experiences. So an upgraded flooding frequency with Korean specific plant operation experience is required. We also propose a method of only using the PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) data for the flooding frequency estimation in the case of the flooding area in the primary building even though the existing flooding PSA used both PWR and BWR (Boiled Water Reactor) data for all kinds of plant areas. We evaluate the CDF (Core Damage Frequency) with the modified flooding frequency and compare the results with that of the existing flooding PSA method

  15. Adjustable Robust Strategies for Flood Protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postek, Krzysztof; den Hertog, Dick; Kind, J.; Pustjens, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Flood protection is of major importance to many flood-prone regions and involves substantial investment and maintenance costs. Modern flood risk management requires often to determine a cost-efficient protection strategy, i.e., one with lowest possible long run cost and satisfying flood protection

  16. ON REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINANTS OF SICK LEAVE FREQUENCY FOR CLEANING WORKERS IN TWO REGIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS : A COMPARATIVE STUDY

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beemsterboer, Willibrord; Stewart, Roy; Groothoff, Johan; Nijhuis, Frans

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: To explore regional differences in the effects of the sick leave frequency determinants between two homogeneous groups of workers from two comparable socio-economic regions in the Netherlands, namely Utrecht and South Limburg. Materials and Methods: Data on sick leave frequency for 137

  17. The Impact of Increasing Fire Frequency on Forest Transformations in the Zabaikal Region, Southern Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conard, S. G.; Kukavskaya, E. A.; Buryak, L. V.; Shvetsov, E.; Kalenskaya, O. P.; Zhila, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Zabaikal region of southern Siberia is characterized by some of the highest fire activity in Russia. There has been a significant increase of fire frequency and burned area in the region over the last two decades due to a combination of high anthropogenic pressure, decreased funding to the forestry sector, and increased fire danger, which was associated with higher frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Central and southern parts of the Zabaikal region where population density is higher and road network is relatively more developed are the most disturbed by fires. Larch stands cover the largest proportion of fire-disturbed lands in the region, while the less common pine and birch stands are characterized by higher fire frequency. About 13% (3.9 M ha) of the total forest area in the Zabaikal region was burned more than once in the 20 years from 1996 to 2015, with many sites burned multiple times. Repeat disturbances led to inadequate tree regeneration on all but the moistest sites. Pine stands on dry soils, which are common in the forest-steppe zone, were the most vulnerable. After repeat burns and over large burned sites we observed transformation of the forests to steppe ecosystems. The most likely causes of insufficient forest regeneration are soil overheating, dominance of tall grasses, and lack of nearby seed sources. Extensive tree plantations have potential to mitigate negative fire impacts; however, due to high fire hazard in the recent decade about half of the plantation area has been burned. Changes in the SWVI index were used to assess postfire reforestation based on a combination of satellite and field data. In the southwestern part of the Zabaikal region, we estimated that reforestation had been hampered over 11% of the forest land area. Regional climate models project increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation across Siberia by the end of the 21st century, with changes in the Zabaikal region projected to be more than twice the

  18. Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls using partial L moments method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakaria, Zahrahtul Amani; Shabri, Ani

    2013-07-01

    An approach based on regional frequency analysis using L moments and LH moments are revisited in this study. Subsequently, an alternative regional frequency analysis using the partial L moments (PL moments) method is employed, and a new relationship for homogeneity analysis is developed. The results were then compared with those obtained using the method of L moments and LH moments of order two. The Selangor catchment, consisting of 37 sites and located on the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia, is chosen as a case study. PL moments for the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), and generalized Pareto distributions were derived and used to develop the regional frequency analysis procedure. PL moment ratio diagram and Z test were employed in determining the best-fit distribution. Comparison between the three approaches showed that GLO and GEV distributions were identified as the suitable distributions for representing the statistical properties of extreme rainfall in Selangor. Monte Carlo simulation used for performance evaluation shows that the method of PL moments would outperform L and LH moments methods for estimation of large return period events.

  19. CLIMATIC SIGNALS FROM INTRA-ANNUAL DENSITY FLUCTUATION FREQUENCY IN MEDITERRANEAN PINES AT A REGIONAL SCALE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrica eZalloni

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Tree rings provide information about the climatic conditions during the growing season by recording them in different anatomical features, such as Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs. IADFs are intra-annual changes of wood density appearing as latewood-like cells within earlywood, or earlywood-like cells within latewood. The occurrence of IADFs is dependent on the age and size of the tree, and it is triggered by climatic drivers. The variations of IADF frequency of different species and their dependence on climate across a wide geographical range have still to be explored. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of age, tree-ring width and climate on IADF formation and frequency at a regional scale across the Mediterranean Basin in Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Ait. and Pinus pinea L. The analyzed tree-ring network was composed of P. pinea trees growing at 11 sites (2 in Italy, 4 in Spain and 4 in Portugal, P. pinaster from 19 sites (2 in Italy, 13 in Spain and 4 in Portugal, and P. halepensis from 38 sites in Spain. The correlations between IADF frequency and monthly minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, as well as between IADF frequency and total precipitation, were analyzed. A significant negative relationship between IADF frequency and tree-ring age was found for the three Mediterranean pines. Moreover, IADFs were more frequent in wider rings than in narrower ones, although the widest rings showed a reduced IADF frequency. Wet conditions during late summer/early autumn triggered the formation of IADFs in the three species. Our results suggest the existence of a common climatic driver for the formation of IADFs in Mediterranean pines, highlighting the potential use of IADF frequency as a proxy for climate reconstructions with geographical resolution.

  20. Climatic Signals from Intra-annual Density Fluctuation Frequency in Mediterranean Pines at a Regional Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalloni, Enrica; de Luis, Martin; Campelo, Filipe; Novak, Klemen; De Micco, Veronica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Vieira, Joana; Nabais, Cristina; Rozas, Vicente; Battipaglia, Giovanna

    2016-01-01

    Tree rings provide information about the climatic conditions during the growing season by recording them in different anatomical features, such as intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs). IADFs are intra-annual changes of wood density appearing as latewood-like cells within earlywood, or earlywood-like cells within latewood. The occurrence of IADFs is dependent on the age and size of the tree, and it is triggered by climatic drivers. The variations of IADF frequency of different species and their dependence on climate across a wide geographical range have still to be explored. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of age, tree-ring width and climate on IADF formation and frequency at a regional scale across the Mediterranean Basin in Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Ait., and Pinus pinea L. The analyzed tree-ring network was composed of P. pinea trees growing at 10 sites (2 in Italy, 4 in Spain, and 4 in Portugal), P. pinaster from 19 sites (2 in Italy, 13 in Spain, and 4 in Portugal), and P. halepensis from 38 sites in Spain. The correlations between IADF frequency and monthly minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, as well as between IADF frequency and total precipitation, were analyzed. A significant negative relationship between IADF frequency and tree-ring age was found for the three Mediterranean pines. Moreover, IADFs were more frequent in wider rings than in narrower ones, although the widest rings showed a reduced IADF frequency. Wet conditions during late summer/early autumn triggered the formation of IADFs in the three species. Our results suggest the existence of a common climatic driver for the formation of IADFs in Mediterranean pines, highlighting the potential use of IADF frequency as a proxy for climate reconstructions with geographical resolution. PMID:27200052

  1. What Is Driving the Observed Changes in Flooding in the Turkey River in Iowa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, C.; Yu, G.; Wright, D.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding can have severe societal, economic, and environmental consequences. In the United States-and worldwide-flooding causes fatalities and billions of dollars in economic loss. Recent research has pointed to changing flood risks in the Midwestern United States. However, we have a limited understanding of what natural and human factors are driving these changes. Researchers have proposed several possible explanations. Increasing intensity of short-duration summertime rainfall, reduced snow cover and earlier snow and soil thaw, changes in land surface evapotranspiration, and the effects of urbanization and agricultural management practices may all play roles in the shifts seen in the hydrologic cycle and flooding in Midwest. This study intends to look at the changes in the region on a smaller scale, whereas most previous research has examined at broad regional trends. Our focus will be on the agricultural Turkey River watershed in northeastern Iowa, where the flood hydroclimatology shows an abrupt shift around the year 1990 toward lower mean annual floods and dramatic increases in the magnitude and frequency of the largest floods. Analyses of land use, temperature, rainfall, river flow, and atmospheric properties, as well as simple continuous hydrologic simulations will aid in our understanding of the flood behavior of Turkey River and its drivers. In doing so, we hope to shed light on the causes of the changes in flooding and hydrology more generally that are taking place throughout the region.

  2. Effects of flooding duration, -frequency and -depth on the presence of saplings of six woody species in north-west Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreugdenhil, S.J.; Kramer, K.; Pelsma, T.

    2006-01-01

    Under natural conditions the zonation of woody species in floodplains is to a large extent determined by hydrological conditions. Flood survival varies even among closely related species of the same genus. Most studies that quantify flood survival of seedlings and saplings of European floodplain

  3. A 320-year long series of Danube floods in Central Hungary (Budapest and Pest County): a frequency-magnitude-seasonality overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Andrea; Salinas, Jose; Bloeschl, Guenter

    2015-04-01

    The present paper is based on a recently developed database including contemporary original, administrative, legal and private source materials (published and archival) as well as media reports related to the floods occurred in the town of Budapest (historical towns of Pest, Buda) and Central Hungary (historical Pest-Pilis-Solt County). As for the archival evidence, main bases of investigation are the administrative sources such as town council protocols and county meeting protocols of Budapest and historical Pest-Pilis-Solt County: in these (legal-)administrative documents damaging events (natural/environmental hazards) were systematically recorded. Moreover, other source types such as taxation-related damage accounts as well as private and official reports, letters and correspondence (published, unpublished) were also included. Concerning published evidence, a most important source is flood reports in contemporary newspapers; however, other published sources (e.g. narratives, fund raising circulars etc.; both published and unpublished) also contained useful flood-related information. Beyond providing information on the strength and weaknesses of different sources types and the temporal and spatial distribution of evidence, a general background on the contemporary environmental and hydrological/hydromorphological conditions of the study area (and its changes during and after river regulations) are also provided. However, in the presentation the main focus is on the analysis of flood rich flood poor periods of the last more than 300 years; furthermore, the seasonality distribution as well as the magnitude of Danube flood events - and their spatial differences are discussed. In case of Budapest and Central Hungary, with respect to the greatest flood events, ice jam floods played a rather significant role before river regulation works. Due to this fact the main types of flood events (including their main causes), with special emphasis on ice jam floods, are discussed

  4. Flood rich periods, flood poor periods and the need to look beyond instrumental records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, S. N.

    2009-04-01

    For many, the later 20th Century and early 21st Century has become synonymous with a growing experience of flood risk. Scientists, politicians and the media have ascribed this to changing climate and there are good hypothetical reasons for human-induced climate change to be impacting upon the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events. In this paper, I will interrogate this claim more carefully, using the UK's instrumental records of river flow, most of which begin after 1960, but a smaller number of which extend back into the 19th Century. Those records that extent back to the 19th Century suggest that major flood events tend to cluster into periods that are relatively flood rich and relatively flood poor, most notably in larger drainage basins: i.e. there is a clear scale issue. The timing (inset, duration, termination) of these periods varies systematically by region although there is a marked flood poor period for much of the UK during the late 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. It follows that at least some of the current experience of flooding, including why it has taken so many policy-makers and flood victims by surprise, may reflect a transition from a flood poor to a flood rich period, exacerbated by possible climate change impacts. These results point to the need to rethink how we think through what drives flood risk. First, it points to the need to look at some of the fundamental oscillations in core atmospheric drivers, such as the North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, in explaining what drives flood risk. Consideration of precipitation, as opposed to river flow, is more advanced in this respect, and those of us working in rivers need to engage much more thoughtfully with atmospheric scientists. Second, it points to the severe inadequacies in using records of only a few decades duration. Even where these are pooled across adjacent sub-catchments, there is likely to be a severe bias in the estimation of flood return periods when we look at instrumental

  5. Comparing the index-flood and multiple-regression methods using L-moments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malekinezhad, H.; Nachtnebel, H. P.; Klik, A.

    In arid and semi-arid regions, the length of records is usually too short to ensure reliable quantile estimates. Comparing index-flood and multiple-regression analyses based on L-moments was the main objective of this study. Factor analysis was applied to determine main influencing variables on flood magnitude. Ward’s cluster and L-moments approaches were applied to several sites in the Namak-Lake basin in central Iran to delineate homogeneous regions based on site characteristics. Homogeneity test was done using L-moments-based measures. Several distributions were fitted to the regional flood data and index-flood and multiple-regression methods as two regional flood frequency methods were compared. The results of factor analysis showed that length of main waterway, compactness coefficient, mean annual precipitation, and mean annual temperature were the main variables affecting flood magnitude. The study area was divided into three regions based on the Ward’s method of clustering approach. The homogeneity test based on L-moments showed that all three regions were acceptably homogeneous. Five distributions were fitted to the annual peak flood data of three homogeneous regions. Using the L-moment ratios and the Z-statistic criteria, GEV distribution was identified as the most robust distribution among five candidate distributions for all the proposed sub-regions of the study area, and in general, it was concluded that the generalised extreme value distribution was the best-fit distribution for every three regions. The relative root mean square error (RRMSE) measure was applied for evaluating the performance of the index-flood and multiple-regression methods in comparison with the curve fitting (plotting position) method. In general, index-flood method gives more reliable estimations for various flood magnitudes of different recurrence intervals. Therefore, this method should be adopted as regional flood frequency method for the study area and the Namak-Lake basin

  6. Continuous High Frequency Activity: A peculiar SEEG pattern related to specific brain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melani, Federico; Zelmann, Rina; Mari, Francesco; Gotman, Jean

    2015-01-01

    Objective While visually marking the high frequency oscillations in the stereo-EEG of epileptic patients, we observed a continuous/semicontinuous activity in the ripple band (80–250 Hz), which we defined continuous High Frequency Activity (HFA). We aim to analyze in all brain regions the occurrence and significance of this particular pattern. Methods Twenty patients implanted in mesial temporal and neocortical areas were studied. One minute of slow-wave sleep was reviewed. The background was classified as continuous/semicontinuous, irregular, or sporadic based on the duration of the fast oscillations. Each channel was classified as inside/outside the seizure onset zone (SOZ) or a lesion. Results The continuous/semicontinuous HFA occurred in 54 of the 790 channels analyzed, with a clearly higher prevalence in hippocampus and occipital lobe. No correlation was found with the SOZ or lesions. In the occipital lobe the continuous/semicontinuous HFA was present independently of whether eyes were open or closed. Conclusions We describe what appears to be a new physiological High Frequency Activity, independent of epileptogenicity, present almost exclusively in the hippocampus and occipital cortex but independent of the alpha rhythm. Significance The continuous HFA may be an intrinsic characteristic of specific brain regions, reflecting a particular type of physiological neuronal activity. PMID:23768436

  7. Nuisance Flooding and Relative Sea-Level Rise: the Importance of Present-Day Land Motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karegar, Makan A; Dixon, Timothy H; Malservisi, Rocco; Kusche, Jürgen; Engelhart, Simon E

    2017-09-11

    Sea-level rise is beginning to cause increased inundation of many low-lying coastal areas. While most of Earth's coastal areas are at risk, areas that will be affected first are characterized by several additional factors. These include regional oceanographic and meteorological effects and/or land subsidence that cause relative sea level to rise faster than the global average. For catastrophic coastal flooding, when wind-driven storm surge inundates large areas, the relative contribution of sea-level rise to the frequency of these events is difficult to evaluate. For small scale "nuisance flooding," often associated with high tides, recent increases in frequency are more clearly linked to sea-level rise and global warming. While both types of flooding are likely to increase in the future, only nuisance flooding is an early indicator of areas that will eventually experience increased catastrophic flooding and land loss. Here we assess the frequency and location of nuisance flooding along the eastern seaboard of North America. We show that vertical land motion induced by recent anthropogenic activity and glacial isostatic adjustment are contributing factors for increased nuisance flooding. Our results have implications for flood susceptibility, forecasting and mitigation, including management of groundwater extraction from coastal aquifers.

  8. A system for generating long streamflow records for study of floods of long return period: Phase 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franz, D.D.; Kraeger, B.A.; Linsley, R.K.

    1989-02-01

    Knowledge of the return periods of large floods is required to make risk analyses for nuclear power plants subject to flooding from rivers. The system reported here combined the stochastic simulation of hourly rainfall data and daily pan evaporation data with the deterministic simulation of streamflow by using the synthetic rainfall and evaporation data as input to a calibrated rainfall runoff model. The sequence of annual maximum flood peaks from a synthetic record of 10,000 years or more was then analyzed to obtain estimates of flood frequency. The reasonableness of the flood frequency results must be evaluated on the degree of mimicry of the key characteristics of the observed rainfall data and the ability of the rainfall-runoff model to mimic the observed flood frequency during the calibration period. On this basis, the flood frequency results appeared to be a reasonable extrapolation of the data used in defining the model parameters. There is a need to develop regional parameters for the stochastic models and to conduct research on the relationship between the stochastic structure of rainfall and stochastic structure of flood frequency. The methodology is applicable, assuming a highly skilled analyst, to watersheds similar to those already tested

  9. The use of historical information for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frau, Roberto; Andreewsky, Marc; Bernardara, Pietro

    2018-03-01

    The design of effective coastal protections requires an adequate estimation of the annual occurrence probability of rare events associated with a return period up to 103 years. Regional frequency analysis (RFA) has been proven to be an applicable way to estimate extreme events by sorting regional data into large and spatially distributed datasets. Nowadays, historical data are available to provide new insight on past event estimation. The utilisation of historical information would increase the precision and the reliability of regional extreme's quantile estimation. However, historical data are from significant extreme events that are not recorded by tide gauge. They usually look like isolated data and they are different from continuous data from systematic measurements of tide gauges. This makes the definition of the duration of our observations period complicated. However, the duration of the observation period is crucial for the frequency estimation of extreme occurrences. For this reason, we introduced here the concept of credible duration. The proposed RFA method (hereinafter referenced as FAB, from the name of the authors) allows the use of historical data together with systematic data, which is a result of the use of the credible duration concept.

  10. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2016-04-01

    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  11. The character and causes of flash flood occurrence changes in mountainous small basins of Southern California under projected climatic change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theresa M. Modrick

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: Small watersheds (O[25 km2] in the mountain regions of southern California comprise the study region. Study focus: This paper examines changes in flash flood occurrence in southern California resulting from projected climatic change. The methodology synthesizes elements of meteorological modeling, hydrology and geomorphology into an integrated modeling approach to define flash flood occurrence in a systematic and consistent way on a regional basis with high spatial and temporal resolution appropriate for flash flooding. A single climate model with three-dimensional atmospheric detail was used as input to drive simulations for historical and future periods. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate an increase in flash flood occurrence for the study region. For two distributed hydrologic models employed, the increase in flash flood occurrence frequency is on average between 30% and 40%. Regional flash flood occurrence is characterized by near saturation of the upper soil layer, and wider ranges in lower soil layer saturation and in precipitation. Overall, a decrease in the total number of precipitation events was found, although with increased precipitation intensity, increased event duration, and higher soil saturation conditions for the 21st century. This combination could signify more hazardous conditions, with fewer precipitation events but higher rainfall intensity and over soils with higher initial soil moisture saturation, leading to more frequent occurrence of flash floods. Keywords: Flash flooding, Climate change, Soil moisture, Precipitation, Distributed hydrologic modeling

  12. Climatic and basin factors affecting the flood frequency curve: PART II – A full sensitivity analysis based on the continuous simulation approach combined with a factorial experimental design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Franchini

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity analysis described in Hashemi et al. (2000 is based on one-at-a-time perturbations to the model parameters. This type of analysis cannot highlight the presence of parameter interactions which might indeed affect the characteristics of the flood frequency curve (ffc even more than the individual parameters. For this reason, the effects of the parameters of the rainfall, rainfall runoff models and of the potential evapotranspiration demand on the ffc are investigated here through an analysis of the results obtained from a factorial experimental design, where all the parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously. This latter, more complex, analysis confirms the results obtained in Hashemi et al. (2000 thus making the conclusions drawn there of wider validity and not related strictly to the reference set selected. However, it is shown that two-factor interactions are present not only between different pairs of parameters of an individual model, but also between pairs of parameters of different models, such as rainfall and rainfall-runoff models, thus demonstrating the complex interaction between climate and basin characteristics affecting the ffc and in particular its curvature. Furthermore, the wider range of climatic regime behaviour produced within the factorial experimental design shows that the probability distribution of soil moisture content at the storm arrival time is no longer sufficient to explain the link between the perturbations to the parameters and their effects on the ffc, as was suggested in Hashemi et al. (2000. Other factors have to be considered, such as the probability distribution of the soil moisture capacity, and the rainfall regime, expressed through the annual maximum rainfalls over different durations. Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation; factorial experimental design; analysis of variance (ANOVA

  13. Effects of lateral boundary condition resolution and update frequency on regional climate model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankatz, Klaus; Kerkweg, Astrid

    2015-04-01

    The work presented is part of the joint project "DecReg" ("Regional decadal predictability") which is in turn part of the project "MiKlip" ("Decadal predictions"), an effort funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to improve decadal predictions on a global and regional scale. In MiKlip, one big question is if regional climate modeling shows "added value", i.e. to evaluate, if regional climate models (RCM) produce better results than the driving models. However, the scope of this study is to look more closely at the setup specific details of regional climate modeling. As regional models only simulate a small domain, they have to inherit information about the state of the atmosphere at their lateral boundaries from external data sets. There are many unresolved questions concerning the setup of lateral boundary conditions (LBC). External data sets come from global models or from global reanalysis data-sets. A temporal resolution of six hours is common for this kind of data. This is mainly due to the fact, that storage space is a limiting factor, especially for climate simulations. However, theoretically, the coupling frequency could be as high as the time step of the driving model. Meanwhile, it is unclear if a more frequent update of the LBCs has a significant effect on the climate in the domain of the RCM. The first study examines how the RCM reacts to a higher update frequency. The study is based on a 30 year time slice experiment for three update frequencies of the LBC, namely six hours, one hour and six minutes. The evaluation of means, standard deviations and statistics of the climate in the regional domain shows only small deviations, some statistically significant though, of 2m temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation. The second part of the first study assesses parameters linked to cyclone activity, which is affected by the LBC update frequency. Differences in track density and strength are found when comparing the simulations

  14. Genetic frequencies related to severe or profound sensorineural hearing loss in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongzhi Liu

    Full Text Available Abstract The aim was to study the frequencies of common deafness-related mutations and their contribution to hearing loss in different regions of Inner Mongolia. A total of 738 deaf children were recruited from five different ethnic groups of Inner Mongolia, including Han Chinese (n=486, Mongolian (n=216, Manchurian (n=24, Hui (n=6 and Daur (n=6. Nine common mutations in four genes (GJB2, SLC26A4, GJB3 and mitochondrial MT-RNR1 gene were detected by allele-specific PCR and universal array. At least one mutated allele was detected in 282 patients. Pathogenic mutations were detected in 168 patients: 114 were homozygotes and 54 were compound heterozygotes. The 114 patients were carriers of only one mutated allele. The frequency of GJB2 variants in Han Chinese (21.0% was higher than that in Mongolians (16.7%, but not significantly different. On the other hand, the frequency of SLC26A4 variants in Han Chinese (14.8% was lower than that in Mongolians (19.4%, but also not significantly different. The frequency of patients with pathogenic mutations was different in Ulanqab (21.4%, Xilingol (40.0%, Chifeng (40.0%, Hulunbeier (30.0%, Hohhot (26.3%, and in Baotou (0%. In conclusion, the frequency of mutated alleles in deafness-related genes did not differ between Han Chinese and Mongolians. However, differences in the distribution of common deafness-related mutations were found among the investigated areas of Inner Mongolia.

  15. Assessing the Regional Frequency, Intensity, and Spatial Extent of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosma, C.; Wright, D.; Nguyen, P.

    2017-12-01

    While the strength of a hurricane is generally classified based on its wind speed, the unprecedented rainfall-driven flooding experienced in southeastern Texas during Hurricane Harvey clearly highlights the need for better understanding of the hazards associated with extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. In this study, we seek to develop a framework for describing the joint probabilistic and spatio-temporal properties of extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. Furthermore, we argue that commonly-used terminology - such as the "500-year storm" - fail to convey the true properties of tropical cyclone rainfall occurrences in the United States. To quantify the magnitude and spatial extent of these storms, a database consisting of hundreds of unique rainfall volumetric shapes (or "voxels") was created. Each voxel is a four-dimensional object, created by connecting, in both space and time, gridded rainfall observations from the daily, gauge-based NOAA CPC-Unified precipitation dataset. Individual voxels were then associated with concurrent tropical cyclone tracks from NOAA's HURDAT-2 archive, to create distinct representations of the rainfall associated with every Atlantic tropical system making landfall over (or passing near) the United States since 1948. Using these voxels, a series of threshold-excess extreme value models were created to estimate the recurrence intervals of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall, both nationally and locally, for single and multi-day timescales. This voxel database also allows for the "indexing" of past events, placing recent extremes - such as the 50+ inches of rain observed during Hurricane Harvey - into a national context and emphasizing how rainfall totals that are rare at the point scale may be more frequent from a regional perspective.

  16. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  17. Effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures: Empirical evidence from French flood disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poussin, J.K.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2015-01-01

    Recent destructive flood events and projected increases in flood risks as a result of climate change in many regions around the world demonstrate the importance of improving flood risk management. Flood-proofing of buildings is often advocated as an effective strategy for limiting damage caused by

  18. Typhoon Doksuri Flooding in 2017 - High-Resolution Inundation Mapping and Monitoring from Sentinel Satellite SAR Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, S. V.; Nguyen, D. T.

    2017-12-01

    In 2017, typhoons and hurricanes have inflicted catastrophic flooding across extensive regions in many countries on several continents, including Asia and North America. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requested urgent support for flood mapping and monitoring in an emergency response to the devastating flood situation. An innovative satellite remote sensing method, called the Depolarization Reduction Algorithm for Global Observations of inundatioN (DRAGON), has been developed and implemented for use with Sentinel synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data at a resolution of 10 meters to identify, map, and monitor inundation including pre-existing water bodies and newly flooded areas. Because Sentinel SAR operates at C-band microwave frequency, it can be used for flood mapping regardless of could cover conditions typically associated with storms, and thus can provide immediate results without the need to wait for the clouds to clear out. In Southeast Asia, Typhoon Doksuri caused significant flooding across extensive regions in Vietnam and other countries in September 2017. Figure 1 presents the flood mapping result over a region around Hà Tĩnh (north central coast of Vietnam) showing flood inundated areas (in yellow) on 16 September 2017 together with pre-existing surface water (in blue) on 4 September 2017. This is just one example selected from a larger flood map covering an extensive region of about 250 km x 680 km all along the central coast of Vietnam.

  19. Response identification in the extremely low frequency region of an electret condenser microphone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeng, Yih-Nen; Yang, Tzung-Ming; Lee, Shang-Yin

    2011-01-01

    This study shows that a small electret condenser microphone connected to a notebook or a personal computer (PC) has a prominent response in the extremely low frequency region in a specific environment. It confines most acoustic waves within a tiny air cell as follows. The air cell is constructed by drilling a small hole in a digital versatile disk (DVD) plate. A small speaker and an electret condenser microphone are attached to the two sides of the hole. Thus, the acoustic energy emitted by the speaker and reaching the microphone is strong enough to actuate the diaphragm of the latter. The experiments showed that, once small air leakages are allowed on the margin of the speaker, the microphone captured the signal in the range of 0.5 to 20 Hz. Moreover, by removing the plastic cover of the microphone and attaching the microphone head to the vibration surface, the low frequency signal can be effectively captured too. Two examples are included to show the convenience of applying the microphone to pick up the low frequency vibration information of practical systems.

  20. Response Identification in the Extremely Low Frequency Region of an Electret Condenser Microphone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shang-Yin Lee

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study shows that a small electret condenser microphone connected to a notebook or a personal computer (PC has a prominent response in the extremely low frequency region in a specific environment. It confines most acoustic waves within a tiny air cell as follows. The air cell is constructed by drilling a small hole in a digital versatile disk (DVD plate. A small speaker and an electret condenser microphone are attached to the two sides of the hole. Thus, the acoustic energy emitted by the speaker and reaching the microphone is strong enough to actuate the diaphragm of the latter. The experiments showed that, once small air leakages are allowed on the margin of the speaker, the microphone captured the signal in the range of 0.5 to 20 Hz. Moreover, by removing the plastic cover of the microphone and attaching the microphone head to the vibration surface, the low frequency signal can be effectively captured too. Two examples are included to show the convenience of applying the microphone to pick up the low frequency vibration information of practical systems.

  1. NMDA receptor antagonist-enhanced high frequency oscillations: are they generated broadly or regionally specific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olszewski, Maciej; Dolowa, Wioleta; Matulewicz, Pawel; Kasicki, Stefan; Hunt, Mark J

    2013-12-01

    Systemic administration of NMDA receptor antagonists, used to model schizophrenia, increase the power of high-frequency oscillations (130-180Hz, HFO) in a variety of neuroanatomical and functionally distinct brain regions. However, it is unclear whether HFO are independently and locally generated or instead spread from a distant source. To address this issue, we used local infusion of tetrodotoxin (TTX) to distinct brain areas to determine how accurately HFO recorded after injection of NMDAR antagonists reflect the activity actually generated at the electrode tip. Changes in power were evaluated in local field potentials (LFPs) recorded from the nucleus accumbens (NAc), prefrontal cortex and caudate and in electrocorticograms (ECoGs) from visual and frontal areas. HFO recorded in frontal and visual cortices (ECoGs) or in the prefrontal cortex, caudate (LFPs) co-varied in power and frequency with observed changes in the NAc. TTX infusion to the NAc immediately and profoundly reduced the power of accumbal HFO which correlated with changes in HFO recorded in distant cortical sites. In contrast, TTX infusion to the prefrontal cortex did not change HFO power recorded locally, although gamma power was reduced. A very similar result was found after TTX infusion to the caudate. These findings raise the possibility that the NAc is an important neural generator. Our data also support existing studies challenging the idea that high frequencies recorded in LFPs are necessarily generated at the recording site. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

  2. Segmenting high-frequency intracardiac ultrasound images of myocardium into infarcted, ischemic, and normal regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, X; Bruce, C J; Pislaru, C; Greenleaf, J F

    2001-12-01

    Segmenting abnormal from normal myocardium using high-frequency intracardiac echocardiography (ICE) images presents new challenges for image processing. Gray-level intensity and texture features of ICE images of myocardium with the same structural/perfusion properties differ. This significant limitation conflicts with the fundamental assumption on which existing segmentation techniques are based. This paper describes a new seeded region growing method to overcome the limitations of the existing segmentation techniques. Three criteria are used for region growing control: 1) Each pixel is merged into the globally closest region in the multifeature space. 2) "Geographic similarity" is introduced to overcome the problem that myocardial tissue, despite having the same property (i.e., perfusion status), may be segmented into several different regions using existing segmentation methods. 3) "Equal opportunity competence" criterion is employed making results independent of processing order. This novel segmentation method is applied to in vivo intracardiac ultrasound images using pathology as the reference method for the ground truth. The corresponding results demonstrate that this method is reliable and effective.

  3. Clusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummel, Michelle; Wood, Nathan J.; Schweikert, Amy; Stacey, Mark T.; Jones, Jeanne; Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.

    2018-01-01

    Sea level is projected to rise over the coming decades, further increasing the extent of flooding hazards in coastal communities. Efforts to address potential impacts from climate-driven coastal hazards have called for collaboration among communities to strengthen the application of best practices. However, communities currently lack practical tools for identifying potential partner communities based on similar hazard exposure characteristics. This study uses statistical cluster analysis to identify similarities in community exposure to flooding hazards for a suite of sea level rise and storm scenarios. We demonstrate this approach using 63 jurisdictions in the San Francisco Bay region of California (USA) and compare 21 distinct exposure variables related to residents, employees, and structures for six hazard scenario combinations of sea level rise and storms. Results indicate that cluster analysis can provide an effective mechanism for identifying community groupings. Cluster compositions changed based on the selected societal variables and sea level rise scenarios, suggesting that a community could participate in multiple networks to target specific issues or policy interventions. The proposed clustering approach can serve as a data-driven foundation to help communities identify other communities with similar adaptation challenges and to enhance regional efforts that aim to facilitate adaptation planning and investment prioritization.

  4. Identification of flood-rich and flood-poor periods in flood series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

    2015-04-01

    Recently, a general concern about non-stationarity of flood series has arisen, as changes in catchment response can be driven by several factors, such as climatic and land-use changes. Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Trends are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test. However, the results of this test depend on the starting and ending year of the series, which can lead to different results in terms of the period considered. The results can be conditioned to flood-poor and flood-rich periods located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to a set of long series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in some parts of Spain that could be caused by a flood-rich period observed in 1950-1970, placed at the beginning of the flood series. The results of this study support the findings of Mediero et al. (2014), as a flood-rich period in 1950-1970 was identified in most of the selected sites. References: Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

  5. Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Southeastern Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switanek, Matt; Truhetz, Heimo; Reszler, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Floods in southeastern Austria can cause significant damage to life, property and infrastructure. These flood events are often the result of extreme precipitation from small-scale convective storms. In order to more accurately model the changes to flood magnitude and frequency, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) must be able to simulate small-scale convective storms similar to those that have been observed. Even as computational resources have increased, RCMs are just now achieving the high spatial and temporal scales necessary to physically resolve the processes that govern small-scale convection. With increased resolution, RCMs can rely on their internal physics to model convective precipitation and need not depend on parameterization. This study uses historical and future scenarios of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) run at a spatial scale of 3 km and temporal scale of 1 hr. In order to subsequently force a hydrological flood model, the sub-daily precipitation and temperature data from the RCMs are first bias corrected. A newly proposed bias correction method is presented and compared to the commonly used quantile mapping. The proposed bias correction method performs better in its ability to preserve the model projected climate change signal (measured by changes in mean and variance). Lastly, the changes in the quantity and frequency of projected extreme precipitation, at the watershed level, are analyzed with respect to the historic time period. With these improvements in dynamical modeling and bias correction methods, a clearer picture emerges revealing the more likely impacts climate change will have on floods in southeastern Austria.

  6. Frequency domain design of gain scheduling control for large wind systems in full-load region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burlibaşa, A.; Ceangă, E.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A large wind energy system, operating under full-load regime, is considered. • According to its particularities in frequency domain, control law design is provided. • These particularities are influenced by the interactions of wind–tower–blade ensemble. • Control low, within gain scheduling strategy, is achieved imposing stability reserve. • Supplementary a criterion, aimed at reducing mechanical loads, is imposed. - Abstract: The paper presents the issue of power control law synthesis, in the case of a large wind system that operates under full-load regime, based on dynamic properties details in frequency domain. Solving this problem involves two phases: the establishment of a linearized model as faithfully as possible in various operating points of the full-load region, and synthesis of the power controller, considered with classic structure, taking into account frequency particularities of the obtained linearized model. Obtained linear model of the controlled process is of order 16 and encloses subsystems for tower fore-aft oscillations damping, and for drive-train torsion oscillations damping. The designed controller contains a PI component and a lag compensator for dynamic correction at high frequencies. It is known that the main features of wind system dynamics generated by the interaction of wind–tower–blade ensemble cause a gap in the gain characteristic of the model and complex conjugate zeros, which can move between right and left half-planes, depending on the average wind speed value. Consequently, for control law synthesis an interactive frequency solution is adopted. This is “transparent” in relation to particularities induced by wind–tower–blade interaction. This solution allows evaluation of the extent to which control law is affected by the subsystem for tower oscillations damping. Given the strong dependence between the model and the mean wind speed value, a gain scheduling control law is designed. At

  7. A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

    2017-07-11

    Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

  8. [Frequency of cervical epithelial lesions reported in the Regional Laboratory of Exfoliative Cytology in Jalisco].

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-López, Sergio; Martínez-Silva, María G; Hernández-Hernández, Dulce M; Aguilar-Lemarroy, Adriana; Jave-Suárez, Luis Felipe

    2015-01-01

    The Official Mexican Norm for the prevention, treatment and control of Cervical Cancer (CC) indicates that the Papanicolau (Pap) is the procedure for the detection of this neoplasia; therefore, it is of interest to know the prevalence of suspected cases by this technique in Mexican population. In this study, we show the diagnosed cases in the State of Jalisco, México. A retrospective study was made to the samples that arrived for their analysis to the Laboratorio Regional de Citología Exfoliativa (LARCE), of the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) in Guadalajara, Jalisco. We considered all cases from January 2010 to December 2012. We analyzed 188 095 cases, from which 5.3 % had a diagnosis of low dysplasia, 0.18 % of moderated dysplasia and 0.05 % of high dysplasia. Microinvasive and invasive cancer showed a low frequency (0.03 %). The frequency of abnormal findings identified by vaginal cervical cytology is relatively low. The number of inadequate and limited samples for cytological assessment is high; there is a high proportion of women attending for the first time in life to cytology evaluation in older age groups.

  9. Low-frequency magnetic field fluctuations in Venus' solar wind interaction region: Venus Express observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Guicking

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available We investigate wave properties of low-frequency magnetic field fluctuations in Venus' solar wind interaction region based on the measurements made on board the Venus Express spacecraft. The orbit geometry is very suitable to investigate the fluctuations in Venus' low-altitude magnetosheath and mid-magnetotail and provides an opportunity for a comparative study of low-frequency waves at Venus and Mars. The spatial distributions of the wave properties, in particular in the dayside and nightside magnetosheath as well as in the tail and mantle region, are similar to observations at Mars. As both planets do not have a global magnetic field, the interaction process of the solar wind with both planets is similar and leads to similar instabilities and wave structures. We focus on the spatial distribution of the wave intensity of the fluctuating magnetic field and detect an enhancement of the intensity in the dayside magnetosheath and a strong decrease towards the terminator. For a detailed investigation of the intensity distribution we adopt an analytical streamline model to describe the plasma flow around Venus. This allows displaying the evolution of the intensity along different streamlines. It is assumed that the waves are generated in the vicinity of the bow shock and are convected downstream with the turbulent magnetosheath flow. However, neither the different Mach numbers upstream and downstream of the bow shock, nor the variation of the cross sectional area and the flow velocity along the streamlines play probably an important role in order to explain the observed concentration of wave intensity in the dayside magnetosheath and the decay towards the nightside magnetosheath. But, the concept of freely evolving or decaying turbulence is in good qualitative agreement with the observations, as we observe a power law decay of the intensity along the streamlines. The observations support the assumption of wave convection through the magnetosheath, but

  10. Regional Frequency Analysis of Extreme Dry Spells during Rainy Season in the Wei River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dunxian She

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our research analyzes the regional changes of extreme dry spell, represented by the annual maximum dry spell length (noted as AMDSL during the rainy season in the Wei River Basin (WRB of China for 1960–2014 using the L-moments method. The mean AMDSL values increase from the west to the east of the WRB, suggesting a high dry risk in the east compared to the west in the WRB. To investigate the regional frequency more reasonably, the WRB is clustered into four homogenous subregions via the K-means method and some subjective adjustments. The goodness-of-fit test shows that the GEV, PE3, and GLO distribution can be accepted as the “best-fit” model for subregions 1 and 4, subregion 2, and subregion 3, respectively. The quantiles of AMDSL under various return levels figure out a similar spatial distribution with mean AMDSL. We also find that the dry risk in subregion 2 and subregion 4 might be higher than that in subregion 1. The relationship between ENSO events and extreme dry spell events in the rainy season with cross wavelet analysis method proves that ENSO events play a critical role in triggering extreme dry events during rainy season in the WRB.

  11. Hydrological change: Towards a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne F.

    2018-01-01

    Several studies have found that the frequency, magnitude and spatio-temporal distribution of droughts and floods have significantly increased in many regions of the world. Yet, most of the methods used in detecting trends in hydrological extremes 1) focus on either floods or droughts, and/or 2) base their assessment on characteristics that, even though useful for trend identification, cannot be directly used in decision making, e.g. integrated water resources management and disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we first discuss the need for a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts, and then propose a method based on the theory of runs and threshold levels. Flood and drought changes were assessed in terms of frequency, length and surplus/deficit volumes. This paper also presents an example application using streamflow data from two hydrometric stations along the Po River basin (Italy), Piacenza and Pontelagoscuro, and then discuss opportunities and challenges of the proposed method.

  12. Frequency-dependent changes in the regional amplitude and synchronization of resting-state functional MRI in stroke.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianfang Zhu

    Full Text Available Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (R-fMRI has been intensively used to assess alterations of inter-regional functional connectivity in patients with stroke, but the regional properties of brain activity in stroke have not yet been fully investigated. Additionally, no study has examined a frequency effect on such regional properties in stroke patients, although this effect has been shown to play important roles in both normal brain functioning and functional abnormalities. Here we utilized R-fMRI to measure the amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (ALFF and regional homogeneity (ReHo, two major methods for characterizing the regional properties of R-fMRI, in three different frequency bands (slow-5: 0.01-0.027 Hz; slow-4: 0.027-0.73 Hz; and typical band: 0.01-0.1 Hz in 19 stroke patients and 15 healthy controls. Both the ALFF and ReHo analyses revealed changes in brain activity in a number of brain regions, particularly the parietal cortex, in stroke patients compared with healthy controls. Remarkably, the regions with changed activity as detected by the slow-5 band data were more extensive, and this finding was true for both the ALFF and ReHo analyses. These results not only confirm previous studies showing abnormality in the parietal cortex in patients with stroke, but also suggest that R-fMRI studies of stroke should take frequency effects into account when measuring intrinsic brain activity.

  13. Coupling Radar Rainfall Estimation and Hydrological Modelling For Flash-flood Hazard Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borga, M.; Creutin, J. D.

    Flood risk mitigation is accomplished through managing either or both the hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard may be reduced through structural measures which alter the frequency of flood levels in the area. The vulnerability of a community to flood loss can be mitigated through changing or regulating land use and through flood warning and effective emergency response. When dealing with flash-flood hazard, it is gener- ally accepted that the most effective way (and in many instances the only affordable in a sustainable perspective) to mitigate the risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the involved communities, in particular by implementing flood warning systems and community self-help programs. However, both the inherent characteristics of the at- mospheric and hydrologic processes involved in flash-flooding and the changing soci- etal needs provide a tremendous challenge to traditional flood forecasting and warning concepts. In fact, the targets of these systems are traditionally localised like urbanised sectors or hydraulic structures. Given the small spatial scale that characterises flash floods and the development of dispersed urbanisation, transportation, green tourism and water sports, human lives and property are exposed to flash flood risk in a scat- tered manner. This must be taken into consideration in flash flood warning strategies and the investigated region should be considered as a whole and every section of the drainage network as a potential target for hydrological warnings. Radar technology offers the potential to provide information describing rain intensities almost contin- uously in time and space. Recent research results indicate that coupling radar infor- mation to distributed hydrologic modelling can provide hydrologic forecasts at all potentially flooded points of a region. Nevertheless, very few flood warning services use radar data more than on a qualitative basis. After a short review of current under- standing in this area, two

  14. Flood risk on the Black sea coast of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alekseevsky, Nikolay; Magritsky, Dmitry; Koltermann, Peter; Krylenko, Inna; Umina, Natalya; Aybulatov, Denis; Efremova, Natalya; Lebedeva, Seraphima

    2013-04-01

    The data of unique database "Floods in the coastal zones of Europeans part of Russia", developed by authors, are shown, that frequency of floods and damage in the coastal zones are growing. There is most dangerous situation on the Black sea coast of Russia. Here the main part of settlements, resorts and industry is situated in the river valleys and mouths. All main roads and pipelines cross the river channels. The Black sea rivers have flood regime with high intensity of flood formations and huge destructive flood power. Despite prevalence of floods during the cold period of year the most part of high floods in 100 years of supervision was noted here in the summer-fall (65% in July-October). Usually they were induced by the showers connected with passing of powerful cyclones, atmospheric fronts, and water tornadoes. The insignificant part of floods was connected with snow melting, backwater phenomena, showers in the cities and dam breaks. Thus shower induced floods here are the most widespread and destructive. Usually they arise within two-three watersheds simultaneously. Formation catastrophic heavy rain flood is possible on any site of a river valley of the Black Sea coast. The wave of a high water moves with very high speed, carrying a large number of deposits and garbage. To the mouth the flood can be transformed into debris flow. The water levels during a high water period rise on 3-6 m in the channels, and up to 11-12 m in the river canyons; the maximum depths of flow on the floodplains are 3 m and more. Flooding depths, induced by slope streams, can be to 0,5 m and higher. Flooding proceeds only some hours. After that water rather quickly flows down from a floodplains to the bed of the rivers and into the sea, leaving traces of destructions, a powerful layer of deposits (to 10-20 cm and more) and garbage. In the mouth river deposits quite often form the river mouth bar which is washed away during next storms. The damage from river floods on the Black Sea

  15. Frequency-Dependent Modulation of Regional Synchrony in the Human Brain by Eyes Open and Eyes Closed Resting-States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xiaopeng; Zhou, Shuqin; Zhang, Yi; Liu, Yijun; Zhu, Huaiqiu; Gao, Jia-Hong

    2015-01-01

    The eyes-open (EO) and eyes-closed (EC) states have differential effects on BOLD-fMRI signal dynamics, affecting both the BOLD oscillation frequency of a single voxel and the regional homogeneity (ReHo) of several neighboring voxels. To explore how the two resting-states modulate the local synchrony through different frequency bands, we decomposed the time series of each voxel into several components that fell into distinct frequency bands. The ReHo in each of the bands was calculated and compared between the EO and EC conditions. The cross-voxel correlations between the mean frequency and the overall ReHo of each voxel's original BOLD series in different brain areas were also calculated and compared between the two states. Compared with the EC state, ReHo decreased with EO in a wide frequency band of 0.01-0.25 Hz in the bilateral thalamus, sensorimotor network, and superior temporal gyrus, while ReHo increased significantly in the band of 0-0.01 Hz in the primary visual cortex, and in a higher frequency band of 0.02-0.1 Hz in the higher order visual areas. The cross-voxel correlations between the frequency and overall ReHo were negative in all the brain areas but varied from region to region. These correlations were stronger with EO in the visual network and the default mode network. Our results suggested that different frequency bands of ReHo showed different sensitivity to the modulation of EO-EC states. The better spatial consistency between the frequency and overall ReHo maps indicated that the brain might adopt a stricter frequency-dependent configuration with EO than with EC.

  16. A Development of Nonstationary Regional Frequency Analysis Model with Large-scale Climate Information: Its Application to Korean Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jin-Young; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Hung-Soo

    2015-04-01

    The existing regional frequency analysis has disadvantages in that it is difficult to consider geographical characteristics in estimating areal rainfall. In this regard, this study aims to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model based nonstationary regional frequency analysis in that spatial patterns of the design rainfall with geographical information (e.g. latitude, longitude and altitude) are explicitly incorporated. This study assumes that the parameters of Gumbel (or GEV distribution) are a function of geographical characteristics within a general linear regression framework. Posterior distribution of the regression parameters are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, and the identified functional relationship is used to spatially interpolate the parameters of the distributions by using digital elevation models (DEM) as inputs. The proposed model is applied to derive design rainfalls over the entire Han-river watershed. It was found that the proposed Bayesian regional frequency analysis model showed similar results compared to L-moment based regional frequency analysis. In addition, the model showed an advantage in terms of quantifying uncertainty of the design rainfall and estimating the area rainfall considering geographical information. Finally, comprehensive discussion on design rainfall in the context of nonstationary will be presented. KEYWORDS: Regional frequency analysis, Nonstationary, Spatial information, Bayesian Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  17. Swiss Re Global Flood Hazard Zones: Know your flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinukollu, R. K.; Castaldi, A.; Mehlhorn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Floods, among all natural disasters, have a great damage potential. On a global basis, there is strong evidence of increase in the number of people affected and economic losses due to floods. For example, global insured flood losses have increased by 12% every year since 1970 and this is expected to further increase with growing exposure in the high risk areas close to rivers and coastlines. Recently, the insurance industry has been surprised by the large extent of losses, because most countries lack reliable hazard information. One example has been the 2011 Thailand floods where millions of people were affected and the total economic losses were 30 billion USD. In order to assess the flood risk across different regions and countries, the flood team at Swiss Re based on a Geomorphologic Regression approach, developed in house and patented, produced global maps of flood zones. Input data for the study was obtained from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation data, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) and HydroSHEDS. The underlying assumptions of the approach are that naturally flowing rivers shape their channel and flood plain according to basin inherent forces and characteristics and that the flood water extent strongly depends on the shape of the flood plain. On the basis of the catchment characteristics, the model finally calculates the probability of a location to be flooded or not for a defined return period, which in the current study was set to 100 years. The data is produced at a 90-m resolution for latitudes 60S to 60N. This global product is now used in the insurance industry to inspect, inform and/or insure the flood risk across the world.

  18. Hydrological processes in regional climate model simulations of the central United States flood of June-July 1993

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Christopher J.; Arritt, Raymond W.; Takle, Eugene S.

    2003-01-01

    Thirteen regional climate model (RCM) simulations of June-July 1993 were compared with each other and observations. Water vapor conservation and precipitation characteristics in each RCM were examined for a 10° X 10° subregion of the upper Mississippi River basin, containing the region of maximum...

  19. Interaction between Floods Occurrence and Gender and Age Structure of Population in Belarus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partasenok, Irina; Kvach, Alena

    2017-04-01

    The high spring snow-melting or rainfall flooding is the most important and actual event in hydrological cycle for the territory of Belarus. It caused an inundation that means exceeding of water level in the river above safe line and water floods to the adjacent territories. Inundations led to significant destruction of adjoining territories, huge financial damage and threat for human being. The frequencies of spring flooding in Belarus is defined by intensity of river network, its morphometric characteristics and hydrometeorological conditions during the season before floods. The aim of the present study is to estimate the spatial distribution of flood inundation frequency and gender and age structure of national population which might be suffer under extreme phenomena on the rivers. We analysed dangerous thresholds in the river water levels and the frequency of floods of various severity within different river basins, quantity of men and women and their ratio, the quantity of people in the age upper 70 years old as a most sensitive to the flood risk group of population and ratio of rural houses to the entire housing resources as a most vulnerable infrastructure in the different regions of the country. During floods the dangerous levels which cause the inundation have been recorded in the 4 largest river basins passes the territory of Belarus. The most frequent inundations (every two years) occur in the south of the country in the Prypyat` river basin, and in the Dnepr river basin (every 4-5 years) on the majority of the rivers. The hypothesis of our study is that quantity of women population is higher in the flood risk regions (we defined 30 regions with highly frequent inundations) and their ratio high with the age. The majority of them live in potential flood dangerous regions. The strong connections between size of the river basin, its potential flood risk and quantity of population in the region was established. The ratio of men and women over country varied

  20. Evaluation of internal flooding in a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiu, K.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Sun, Y.H.; Anavim, E.; Ilberg, D.

    1985-01-01

    Flooding inside a nuclear power station is capable of concurrently disabling redundant safety systems. This paper presents the results of a recent review study performed on internally-generated floods inside a boiling water reactor (BWR) reactor building. The study evaluated the flood initiator frequency due to either maintenance or ruptures using Markovian models. A time phased event tree approach was adopted to quantify the core damage frequency based on the flood initiator frequency. It is found in the study that the contribution to the total core damage due to internal flooding events is not insignificant and is comparable to other transient contributors. The findings also indicate that the operator plays an important role in the prevention as well as the mitigation of a flooding event

  1. Towards a Flood Severity Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettner, A.; Chong, A.; Prades, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Muir, S.; Amparore, A.; Slayback, D. A.; Poungprom, R.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide, affecting 21 million people every year. In the immediate moments following a flood event, humanitarian actors like the World Food Program need to make rapid decisions ( 72 hrs) on how to prioritize affected areas impacted by such an event. For other natural disasters like hurricanes/cyclones and earthquakes, there are industry-recognized standards on how the impacted areas are to be classified. Shake maps, quantifying peak ground motion, from for example the US Geological Survey are widely used for assessing earthquakes. Similarly, cyclones are tracked by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) who release storm nodes and tracks (forecasted and actual), with wind buffers and classify the event according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. For floods, the community is usually able to acquire unclassified data of the flood extent as identified from satellite imagery. Most often no water discharge hydrograph is available to classify the event into recurrence intervals simply because there is no gauging station, or the gauging station was unable to record the maximum discharge due to overtopping or flood damage. So, the question remains: How do we methodically turn a flooded area into classified areas of different gradations of impact? Here, we present a first approach towards developing a global applicable flood severity index. The flood severity index is set up such that it considers relatively easily obtainable physical parameters in a short period of time like: flood frequency (relating the current flood to historical events) and magnitude, as well as land cover, slope, and where available pre-event simulated flood depth. The scale includes categories ranging from very minor flooding to catastrophic flooding. We test and evaluate the postulated classification scheme against a set of past flood events. Once a severity category is determined, socio

  2. Radio frequency radiation (RFR) from TV and radio transmitters at a pilot region in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirav, Bahriye; Seyhan, Nesrin

    2009-09-01

    For the last 30 y, the biological effects of non-ionising radiation (NIR: 0-300 GHz) have been a major topic in bioelectromagnetism. Since the number of radiofrequency (RF) systems operating in this frequency range has shown an incredible increase over the last few decades, the dangers of exposure to the fields generated thereby has become an important public health issue. In this study, the aim was to evaluate the level of RF electromagnetic radiation in Yenimahalle Sentepe Dededoruk Hill in Ankara, Turkey that is a multiple-transmitter site hosting 64 different TV and radio towers and one base station for mobile phone communication. The site has been of interest as it is nearby a residential community. Within the technical input data available on 31 of the radio and TV transmitters, the calculated radiation level in this particular region was found to be approximately four times higher than the permitted standards of Turkey, which are the same as the ICNIRP standards. Electromagnetic field measurement is needed in the site.

  3. Radio frequency radiation (RFR) from TV and radio transmitters at a pilot region in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirav, B.; Seyhan, N.

    2009-01-01

    For the last 30 y, the biological effects of non-ionising radiation (NIR: 0-300 GHz) have been a major topic in bio-electromagnetism. Since the number of radiofrequency (RF) systems operating in this frequency range has shown an incredible increase over the last few decades, the dangers of exposure to the fields generated thereby has become an important public health issue. In this study, the aim was to evaluate the level of RF electromagnetic radiation in Yenimahalle Sentepe Dededoruk Hill in Ankara (Turkey) that is a multiple-transmitter site hosting 64 different TV and radio towers and one base station for mobile phone communication. The site has been of interest as it is nearby a residential community. Within the technical input data available on 31 of the radio and TV transmitters, the calculated radiation level in this particular region was found to be approximately four times higher than the permitted standards of Turkey, which are the same as the ICNIRP standards. Electromagnetic field measurement is needed in the site. (authors)

  4. Comparison of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels using Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling versus Regional Frequency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, C. A.; Skahill, B. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Karlovits, G. S.; England, J. F.; Duren, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    We compare gridded extreme precipitation return levels obtained using spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) with their respective counterparts from a traditional regional frequency analysis (RFA) using the same set of extreme precipitation data. Our study area is the 11,478 square mile Willamette River basin (WRB) located in northwestern Oregon, a major tributary of the Columbia River whose 187 miles long main stem, the Willamette River, flows northward between the Coastal and Cascade Ranges. The WRB contains approximately two ­thirds of Oregon's population and 20 of the 25 most populous cities in the state. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Portland District operates thirteen dams and extreme precipitation estimates are required to support risk­ informed hydrologic analyses as part of the USACE Dam Safety Program. Our intent is to profile for the USACE an alternate methodology to an RFA that was developed in 2008 due to the lack of an official NOAA Atlas 14 update for the state of Oregon. We analyze 24-hour annual precipitation maxima data for the WRB utilizing the spatial BHM R package "spatial.gev.bma", which has been shown to be efficient in developing coherent maps of extreme precipitation by return level. Our BHM modeling analysis involved application of leave-one-out cross validation (LOO-CV), which not only supported model selection but also a comprehensive assessment of location specific model performance. The LOO-CV results will provide a basis for the BHM RFA comparison.

  5. High frequency ion sound waves associated with Langmuir waves in type III radio burst source regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Thejappa

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Short wavelength ion sound waves (2-4kHz are detected in association with the Langmuir waves (~15-30kHz in the source regions of several local type III radio bursts. They are most probably not due to any resonant wave-wave interactions such as the electrostatic decay instability because their wavelengths are much shorter than those of Langmuir waves. The Langmuir waves occur as coherent field structures with peak intensities exceeding the Langmuir collapse thresholds. Their scale sizes are of the order of the wavelength of an ion sound wave. These Langmuir wave field characteristics indicate that the observed short wavelength ion sound waves are most probably generated during the thermalization of the burnt-out cavitons left behind by the Langmuir collapse. Moreover, the peak intensities of the observed short wavelength ion sound waves are comparable to the expected intensities of those ion sound waves radiated by the burnt-out cavitons. However, the speeds of the electron beams derived from the frequency drift of type III radio bursts are too slow to satisfy the needed adiabatic ion approximation. Therefore, some non-linear process such as the induced scattering on thermal ions most probably pumps the beam excited Langmuir waves towards the lower wavenumbers, where the adiabatic ion approximation is justified.

  6. Frequency Distribution of Blood Groups ABO, MN and Rh Factor in Philippine Cosmopolitan, Regional and the National Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Ruth Marian S. Guzman; Ricardo Noel R. Gervasio; Ian Kendrich C. Fontanilla; Ernelea P. Cao

    2009-01-01

    Frequency distribution of blood groups is important as it is used in modern medicine, genetic research, anthropology, and tracing ancestral relations of humans. Blood groups include the ABO, Rh and the MN red cell antigens. The frequency distribution of these three blood groups were obtained and assessed for differences from three populations: (1) a regional population from the town of Cabagan located in Isabela province; (2) a cosmopolitan population from the University of the Philippines’ r...

  7. Increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongman, Brenden; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Feyen, Luc; Aerts, Jeroen; Mechler, Reinhard; Botzen, Wouter; Bouwer, Laurens; Pflug, Georg; Rojas, Rodrigo; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Recent major flood disasters have shown that single extreme events can affect multiple countries simultaneously, which puts high pressure on trans-national risk reduction and risk transfer mechanisms. To date, little is known about such flood hazard interdependencies across regions, and the corresponding joint risks at regional to continental scales. Reliable information on correlated loss probabilities is crucial for developing robust insurance schemes and public adaptation funds, and for enhancing our understanding of climate change impacts. Here we show that extreme discharges are strongly correlated across European river basins and that these correlations can, or should, be used in national to continental scale risk assessment. We present probabilistic trends in continental flood risk, and demonstrate that currently observed extreme flood losses could more than double in frequency by 2050 under future climate change and socioeconomic development. The results demonstrate that accounting for tail dependencies leads to higher estimates of extreme losses than estimates based on the traditional assumption of independence between basins. We suggest that risk management for these increasing losses is largely feasible, and we demonstrate that risk can be shared by expanding risk transfer financing, reduced by investing in flood protection, or absorbed by enhanced solidarity between countries. We conclude that these measures have vastly different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications, which need to be taken into account in broader consultation, for which our analysis provides a basis.

  8. Artificial E-region field-aligned plasma irregularities generated at pump frequencies near the second electron gyroharmonic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. Hysell

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available E region ionospheric modification experiments have been performed at HAARP using pump frequencies about 50 kHz above and below the second electron gyroharmonic frequency. Artificial E region field-aligned plasma density irregularities (FAIs were created and observed using the imaging coherent scatter radar near Homer, Alaska. Echoes from FAIs generated with pump frequencies above and below 2Ωe did not appear to differ significantly in experiments conducted on summer afternoons in 2008, and the resonance instability seemed to be at work in either case. We argue that upper hybrid wave trapping and resonance instability at pump frequencies below the second electron gyroharmonic frequency are permitted theoretically when the effects of finite parallel wavenumbers are considered. Echoes from a sporadic E layer were observed to be somewhat weaker when the pump frequency was 50 kHz below the second electron gyroharmonic frequency. This may indicate that finite parallel wavenumbers are inconsistent with wave trapping in thin sporadic E ionization layers.

  9. Artificial E-region field-aligned plasma irregularities generated at pump frequencies near the second electron gyroharmonic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. Hysell

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available E region ionospheric modification experiments have been performed at HAARP using pump frequencies about 50 kHz above and below the second electron gyroharmonic frequency. Artificial E region field-aligned plasma density irregularities (FAIs were created and observed using the imaging coherent scatter radar near Homer, Alaska. Echoes from FAIs generated with pump frequencies above and below 2Ωe did not appear to differ significantly in experiments conducted on summer afternoons in 2008, and the resonance instability seemed to be at work in either case. We argue that upper hybrid wave trapping and resonance instability at pump frequencies below the second electron gyroharmonic frequency are permitted theoretically when the effects of finite parallel wavenumbers are considered. Echoes from a sporadic E layer were observed to be somewhat weaker when the pump frequency was 50 kHz below the second electron gyroharmonic frequency. This may indicate that finite parallel wavenumbers are inconsistent with wave trapping in thin sporadic E ionization layers.

  10. Variations in flood magnitude-effect relations and the implications for flood risk assessment and river management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooke, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    In spite of major physical impacts from large floods, present river management rarely takes into account the possible dynamics and variation in magnitude-impact relations over time in flood risk mapping and assessment nor incorporates feedback effects of changes into modelling. Using examples from the literature and from field measurements over several decades in two contrasting environments, a semi-arid region and a humid-temperate region, temporal variations in channel response to flood events are evaluated. The evidence demonstrates how flood physical impacts can vary at a location over time. The factors influencing that variation on differing timescales are examined. The analysis indicates the importance of morphological changes and trajectory of adjustment in relation to thresholds, and that trends in force or resistance can take place over various timescales, altering those thresholds. Sediment supply can also change with altered connectivity upstream and changes in state of hillslope-channel coupling. It demonstrates that seasonal timing and sequence of events can affect response, particularly deposition through sediment supply. Duration can also have a significant effect and modify the magnitude relation. Lack of response or deposits in some events can mean that flood frequency using such evidence is underestimated. A framework for assessment of both past and possible future changes is provided which emphasises the uncertainty and the inconstancy of the magnitude-impact relation and highlights the dynamic factors and nature of variability that should be considered in sustainable management of river channels.

  11. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Synchronous drought and flooding in southern Chinese Loess Plateau in phase with the variation of global temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, X.; Kang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Drought and flooding, usually occurring in the catchment scale, are the main natural threats to human livelihood due to the extreme variation of precipitation in spatiotemporal scales. Within the context of global warming, the risk of flood and drought tends to increase in different regions. Understanding the mechanism of the regional occurrence of flood and drought is of enormous importance for the predicting studies and taking corresponding measures. However, the instrumental records are too short to conduct a prediction. Here, we present a historical-archive-based high-resolution dataset of drought and flooding back to AD 1646 in the southern Chinese Loess Plateau. This sequence, integrated with the modern meteorological observation data, shows that the frequency of drought and flooding in the study region is synchronous on a decadal scale, and they are in phase with the increase in both global and regional temperature. During the warm period, the ENSO activity was found to be increase, resulting in the anomaly distribution of precipitation in different seasons in southern Chinese Loess Plateau, which is the reason for the temperature dependence of flooding and drought in this region. If global temperature continues to rise in the future, the risk of both drought and flooding in the study area would also increase.

  13. Estimating regional long-term economic consequences of natural hazards - a case study of the 2005 flood event in Tyrol (Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfurtscheller, C.; Lochner, B.; Brucker, A.

    2012-04-01

    The interaction of relief-driven alpine natural processes with the anthropogenic sphere often leads to natural disasters which significantly impact on remote alpine economies. When evaluating the effects of such events for future risk prevention strategies, it is essential to assess indirect losses. While the economic measurement of direct effects - the physical impact on structures and infrastructure - seems fairly manageable, less is known about the dimensions of indirect effects, especially on a local and regional scale within the Alps. The lack of standardized terminology, empirical data and methods to estimate indirect economic effects currently hampers profound decision support. In our study of the 2005 flood event in Tyrol, we surveyed companies from all sectors of the economy to identify the main drivers of indirect effects and interrupted economic flows. In collaboration with the Federal State administration, we extrapolate the total regional economic effects of this catastrophic event. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, we established and analysed a data pool of questionnaire and interview results as well as direct loss data. We mainly focus on the decrease in value creation and the negative impacts on tourism. We observed that disrupted traffic networks can have a highly negative impact, especially for the tourism sector in lateral alpine valleys. Within a month, turnover fell by approximately EUR 3.3 million in the investigated area. In the short run (until August 2006), the shortfall in touristic revenues in the Paznaun valley aggregated to approx. EUR 5.3 million. We observed that overnight stays rebound very quickly so that long-term effects are marginal. In addition, we tried to identify possible economical losers as well as winners of severe hazard impacts. In response to such flood events, high investments are made to improve disaster and risk management. Nearly 70% of the respondents specified the (re)construction sector and similar

  14. Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Goudenhoofdt

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In Belgium, only rain gauge time series have been used so far to study extreme rainfall at a given location. In this paper, the potential of a 12-year quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE from a single weather radar is evaluated. For the period 2005–2016, 1 and 24 h rainfall extremes from automatic rain gauges and collocated radar estimates are compared. The peak intensities are fitted to the exponential distribution using regression in Q-Q plots with a threshold rank which minimises the mean squared error. A basic radar product used as reference exhibits unrealistic high extremes and is not suitable for extreme value analysis. For 24 h rainfall extremes, which occur partly in winter, the radar-based QPE needs a bias correction. A few missing events are caused by the wind drift associated with convective cells and strong radar signal attenuation. Differences between radar and gauge rainfall values are caused by spatial and temporal sampling, gauge underestimations and radar errors. Nonetheless the fit to the QPE data is within the confidence interval of the gauge fit, which remains large due to the short study period. A regional frequency analysis for 1 h duration is performed at the locations of four gauges with 1965–2008 records using the spatially independent QPE data in a circle of 20 km. The confidence interval of the radar fit, which is small due to the sample size, contains the gauge fit for the two closest stations from the radar. In Brussels, the radar extremes are significantly higher than the gauge rainfall extremes, but similar to those observed by an automatic gauge during the same period. The extreme statistics exhibit slight variations related to topography. The radar-based extreme value analysis can be extended to other durations.

  15. Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

    2008-01-01

    Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

  16. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  17. Flood risk governance arrangements in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matczak, P.; Lewandowski, J.; Choryński, A.; Szwed, M.; Kundzewicz, Z. W.

    2015-06-01

    The STAR-FLOOD (Strengthening and Redesigning European Flood Risk Practices Towards Appropriate and Resilient Flood Risk Governance Arrangements) project, funded by the European Commission, investigates strategies for dealing with flood risk in six European countries: Belgium, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden and in 18 vulnerable urban regions in these countries. The project aims to describe, analyse, explain, and evaluate the main similarities and differences between the selected EU Member States in terms of development and performance of flood risk governance arrangements. It also discusses the scientific and societal importance of these similarities and differences. Attention is paid to identification and characterization of shifts in flood risk governance arrangements and in flood risk management strategies and to determination of triggering factors and restraining factors. An assessment of a change of resilience and appropriateness (legitimacy, effectiveness, efficiency) of flood risk governance arrangements in Poland is presented and comparison with other European countries is offered.

  18. Flood risk governance arrangements in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Matczak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The STAR-FLOOD (Strengthening and Redesigning European Flood Risk Practices Towards Appropriate and Resilient Flood Risk Governance Arrangements project, funded by the European Commission, investigates strategies for dealing with flood risk in six European countries: Belgium, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden and in 18 vulnerable urban regions in these countries. The project aims to describe, analyse, explain, and evaluate the main similarities and differences between the selected EU Member States in terms of development and performance of flood risk governance arrangements. It also discusses the scientific and societal importance of these similarities and differences. Attention is paid to identification and characterization of shifts in flood risk governance arrangements and in flood risk management strategies and to determination of triggering factors and restraining factors. An assessment of a change of resilience and appropriateness (legitimacy, effectiveness, efficiency of flood risk governance arrangements in Poland is presented and comparison with other European countries is offered.

  19. Comparing flood loss models of different complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Riggelsen, Carsten; Scherbaum, Frank; Merz, Bruno

    2013-04-01

    Any deliberation on flood risk requires the consideration of potential flood losses. In particular, reliable flood loss models are needed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures, to assess vulnerability, for comparative risk analysis and financial appraisal during and after floods. In recent years, considerable improvements have been made both concerning the data basis and the methodological approaches used for the development of flood loss models. Despite of that, flood loss models remain an important source of uncertainty. Likewise the temporal and spatial transferability of flood loss models is still limited. This contribution investigates the predictive capability of different flood loss models in a split sample cross regional validation approach. For this purpose, flood loss models of different complexity, i.e. based on different numbers of explaining variables, are learned from a set of damage records that was obtained from a survey after the Elbe flood in 2002. The validation of model predictions is carried out for different flood events in the Elbe and Danube river basins in 2002, 2005 and 2006 for which damage records are available from surveys after the flood events. The models investigated are a stage-damage model, the rule based model FLEMOps+r as well as novel model approaches which are derived using data mining techniques of regression trees and Bayesian networks. The Bayesian network approach to flood loss modelling provides attractive additional information concerning the probability distribution of both model predictions and explaining variables.

  20. Flood Water Segmentation from Crowdsourced Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, J. K.; Minsker, B. S.

    2017-12-01

    In the United States, 176 people were killed by flooding in 2015. Along with the loss of human lives is the economic cost which is estimated to be $4.5 billion per flood event. Urban flooding has become a recent concern due to the increase in population, urbanization, and global warming. As more and more people are moving into towns and cities with infrastructure incapable of coping with floods, there is a need for more scalable solutions for urban flood management.The proliferation of camera-equipped mobile devices have led to a new source of information for flood research. In-situ photographs captured by people provide information at the local level that remotely sensed images fail to capture. Applications of crowdsourced images to flood research required understanding the content of the image without the need for user input. This paper addresses the problem of how to automatically segment a flooded and non-flooded region in crowdsourced images. Previous works require two images taken at similar angle and perspective of the location when it is flooded and when it is not flooded. We examine three different algorithms from the computer vision literature that are able to perform segmentation using a single flood image without these assumptions. The performance of each algorithm is evaluated on a collection of labeled crowdsourced flood images. We show that it is possible to achieve a segmentation accuracy of 80% using just a single image.

  1. Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cœur, Denis; Lang, Michel

    2008-09-01

    The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.

  2. Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froidevaux, P.; Schwanbeck, J.; Weingartner, R.; Chevalier, C.; Martius, O.

    2015-09-01

    Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered - more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed - allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at

  3. Critical frequency and maximum electron density of F2 region over four stations in the North American sector

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ezquer, R. G.; Cabrera, M. A.; López, J. L.; Albornoz, M. R.; Mosert, M.; Marcó, P.; Burešová, Dalia

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 73, č. 4 (2011), s. 420-429 ISSN 1364-6826 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Ionosphere * F2 region * Critical frequency * Electron density * Model Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.596, year: 2011 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682610002786

  4. The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iceland, Charles

    2015-04-01

    As population growth and economic growth take place, and as climate change accelerates, many regions across the globe are finding themselves increasingly vulnerable to flooding. A recent OECD study of the exposure of the world's large port cities to coastal flooding found that 40 million people were exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event in 2005, and the total value of exposed assets was about US 3,000 billion, or 5% of global GDP. By the 2070s, those numbers were estimated to increase to 150 million people and US 35,000 billion, or roughly 9% of projected global GDP. Impoverished people in developing countries are particularly at risk because they often live in flood-prone areas and lack the resources to respond. WRI and its Dutch partners - Deltares, IVM-VU University Amsterdam, Utrecht University, and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - are in the initial stages of developing a robust set of river flood and coastal storm surge risk measures that show the extent of flooding under a variety of scenarios (both current and future), together with the projected human and economic impacts of these flood scenarios. These flood risk data and information will be accessible via an online, easy-to-use Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer. We will also investigate the viability, benefits, and costs of a wide array of flood risk reduction measures that could be implemented in a variety of geographic and socio-economic settings. Together, the activities we propose have the potential for saving hundreds of thousands of lives and strengthening the resiliency and security of many millions more, especially those who are most vulnerable. Mr. Iceland will present Version 1.0 of the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer and provide a preview of additional elements of the Analyzer to be released in the coming years.

  5. Delivering Integrated Flood Risk Management : Governance for collaboration, learning and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Herk, S.

    2014-01-01

    The frequency and consequences of extreme flood events have increased rapidly worldwide in recent decades and climate change and economic growth are likely to exacerbate this trend. Flood protection measures alone cannot accommodate the future frequencies and impacts of flooding. Integrated flood

  6. Delivering Integrated Flood Risk Management: Governance for collaboration, learning and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Herk, S.

    2014-01-01

    The frequency and consequences of extreme flood events have increased rapidly worldwide in recent decades and climate change and economic growth are likely to exacerbate this trend. Flood protection measures alone cannot accommodate the future frequencies and impacts of flooding. Integrated flood

  7. Effect of Temperature Variation on Modal Frequency of Reinforced Concrete Slab and Beam in Cold Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanbing Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Changes of modal frequencies induced by temperature variation can be more obvious than those caused by structural damage, which will lead to the false damage identification results. Therefore, quantifying the temperature effect on modal frequencies is a critical step to eliminate its interference in damage detection. Due to the nonuniform and time-dependent characteristics of temperature distribution, it is insufficient to obtain the reliable relationships between temperatures and modal frequencies using temperatures in air or at surface. In this paper, correlations between measured temperatures (air temperature, surface temperature, mean temperature, etc. and modal frequencies for the slab and beam are comparatively analyzed. And the quantitative models are constructed considering nonuniform temperature distribution. Firstly, the reinforced concrete slab and beam were constructed and placed outside the laboratory to be monitored. Secondly, the correlation coefficients between modal frequencies and three kinds of temperatures are calculated, respectively. Thirdly, simple linear regression models between mean temperature and modal frequencies are established for the slab and beam. Finally, five temperature variables are selected to construct the multiple linear regression models. Prediction results reveal that the proposed multiple linear regression models possess favorable accuracy to quantify the temperature effect on modal frequencies considering nonuniform temperature distribution.

  8. Probability estimates of heavy precipitation events in a flood-prone central-European region with enhanced influence of Mediterranean cyclones

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kyselý, Jan; Picek, J.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 12, - (2007), s. 43-50 ISSN 1680-7340 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420601 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : extreme precipitation event * region al frequency analysis * Generalized Extreme Value distribution * Generalized Logistic distribution * central Europe * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology www.adv-geosci.net/12/43/2007/

  9. Nonstationarity in the occurrence rate of floods in the Tarim River basin, China, and related impacts of climate indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Chen, Xi; Liu, Lin

    2016-07-01

    Amplification of floods in the Xinjiang, China, has been observed, but reports on their changing properties and underlying mechanisms are not available. In this study, occurrence rates of floods in the Tarim River basin, the largest inland arid river basin in China, were analyzed using the Kernel density estimation technique and bootstrap resampling method. Also analyzed were the occurrence rates of precipitation extremes using the POT (Peak over Threshold)-based sampling method. Both stationary and non-stationary models were developed using GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) to model flood frequency with time, climate index, precipitation and temperature as major predictors. Results indicated: (1) two periods with increasing occurrence of floods, i.e., the late 1960s and the late 1990s with considerable fluctuations around 2-3 flood events during time intervals between the late 1960s and the late 1990s; (2) changes in the occurrence rates of floods were subject to nonstationarity. A persistent increase of flood frequency and magnitude was observed during the 1990s and reached a peak value; (3) AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and AO (Atlantic Oscillation) in winter were the key influencing climate indices impacting the occurrence rates of floods. However, NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and SOI (South Oscillation Index) are two principle factors that influence the occurrence rates of regional floods. The AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) values indicated that compared to the influence of climate indices, occurrence rates of floods seemed to be more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes. Results of this study are important for flood management and development of mitigation measures.

  10. Probabilistic Flood Defence Assessment Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slomp Robert

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The WTI2017 project is responsible for the development of flood defence assessment tools for the 3600 km of Dutch primary flood defences, dikes/levees, dunes and hydraulic structures. These tools are necessary, as per January 1st 2017, the new flood risk management policy for the Netherlands will be implemented. Then, the seven decades old design practice (maximum water level methodology of 1958 and two decades old safety standards (and maximum hydraulic load methodology of 1996 will formally be replaced by a more risked based approach for the national policy in flood risk management. The formal flood defence assessment is an important part of this new policy, especially for flood defence managers, since national and regional funding for reinforcement is based on this assessment. This new flood defence policy is based on a maximum allowable probability of flooding. For this, a maximum acceptable individual risk was determined at 1/100 000 per year, this is the probability of life loss of for every protected area in the Netherlands. Safety standards of flood defences were then determined based on this acceptable individual risk. The results were adjusted based on information from cost -benefit analysis, societal risk and large scale societal disruption due to the failure of critical infrastructure e.g. power stations. The resulting riskbased flood defence safety standards range from a 300 to a 100 000 year return period for failure. Two policy studies, WV21 (Safety from floods in the 21st century and VNK-2 (the National Flood Risk in 2010 provided the essential information to determine the new risk based safety standards for flood defences. The WTI2017 project will provide the safety assessment tools based on these new standards and is thus an essential element for the implementation of this policy change. A major issue to be tackled was the development of user-friendly tools, as the new assessment is to be carried out by personnel of the

  11. Magnitude of flood flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities in Rhode Island through 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarriello, Phillip J.; Ahearn, Elizabeth A.; Levin, Sara B.

    2012-01-01

    in the flood magnitudes from 20- to 0.2-percent AEPs. Estimates of uncertainty of the at-site and regression flood magnitudes are provided and were combined with their respective estimated flood quantiles to improve estimates of flood flows at streamgages. This region has a long history of urban development, which is considered to have an important effect on flood flows. This study includes basins that have an impervious area ranging from 0.5 to 37 percent. Although imperviousness provided some explanatory power in the regression, it was not statistically significant at the 95-percent confidence level for any of the AEPs examined. Influence of urbanization on flood flows indicates a complex interaction with other characteristics that confounds a statistical explanation of its effects. Standard methods for calculating magnitude of floods for given AEP are based on the assumption of stationarity, that is, the annual peak flows exhibit no significant trend over time. A subset of 16 streamgages with 70 or more years of unregulated systematic record indicates all but 4 streamgages have a statistically significant positive trend at the 95-percent confidence level; three of these are statistically significant at about the 90-percent confidence level or above. If the trend continues linearly in time, the estimated magnitude of floods for any AEP, on average, will increase by 6, 13, and 21 percent in 10, 20, and 30 years' time, respectively. In 2010, new peaks of record were set at 18 of the 21 active streamgages in Rhode Island. The updated flood frequency analysis indicates the peaks at these streamgages ranged from 2- to 0.2-percent AEP. Many streamgages in the State peaked at a 0.5- and 0.2-percent AEP, except for streamgages in the Blackstone River Basin, which peaked from a 4- to 2-percent AEP.

  12. Estimation of regional intensity-duration-frequency curves for extreme precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1998-01-01

    of regional homogeneity and identification of a proper regional distribution L-moment analysis is applied. To analyse the regional variability in more detail, a generalised least squares regression analysis is carried out that relates the PDS model parameters to climatic and physiographic characteristics...

  13. Floods in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Follansbee, Robert; Sawyer, Leon R.

    1948-01-01

    The first records of floods in Colorado antedated the settlement of the State by about 30 years. These were records of floods on the Arkansas and Republican Rivers in 1826. Other floods noted by traders, hunters and emigrants, some of whom were on their way to the Far West, occurred in 1844 on the Arkansas River, and by inference on the South Platte River. Other early floods were those on the Purgatoire, the Lower Arkansas, and the San Juan Rivers about 1859. The most serious flood since settlement began was that on the Arkansas River during June 1921, which caused the loss of about 100 lives and an estimated property loss of $19,000,000. Many floods of lesser magnitude have occurred, and some of these have caused loss of life and very considerable property damage. Topography is the chief factor in determining the location of storms and resulting floods. These occur most frequently on the eastern slope of the Front Range. In the mountains farther west precipitation is insufficient to cause floods except during periods of melting snow, in June. In the southwestern part of the State, where precipitation during periods of melting snow is insufficient to cause floods, the severest floods yet experienced resulted from heavy rains in September 1909 and October 1911. In the eastern foothills region, usually below an altitude of about 7,500 feet and extending for a distance of about 50 miles east of the mountains, is a zone subject to rainfalls of great intensity known as cloudbursts. These cloudbursts are of short duration and are confined to very small areas. At times the intensity is so great as to make breathing difficult for those exposed to a storm. The areas of intense rainfall are so small that Weather Bureau precipitation stations have not been located in them. Local residents, being cloudburst conscious, frequently measure the rainfall in receptacles in their yards, and such records constitute the only source of information regarding the intensity. A flood

  14. Flood statistics of simple and multiple scaling; Invarianza di scala del regime di piena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosso, Renzo; Mancini, Marco; Burlando, Paolo; De Michele, Carlo [Milan, Politecnico Univ. (Italy). DIIAR; Brath, Armando [Bologna, Univ. (Italy). DISTART

    1996-09-01

    The variability of flood probabilities throughout the river network is investigated by introducing the concepts of simple and multiple scaling. Flood statistics and quantiles as parametrized by drainage area are considered, and a distributed geomorphoclimatic model is used to analyze in detail their scaling properties for two river basins in Thyrrhenian Liguria (North-Western Italy). Although temporal storm precipitation and spatial runoff production are not scaling, the resulting flood flows do not display substantial deviations from statistical self-similarity or simple scaling. This result has a wide potential in order to assess the concept of hydrological homogeneity, also indicating a new route towards establishing physically-based procedures for flood frequency regionalization.

  15. Landslides, Floods, and Marine Effects of the Storm of January 3-5, 1982, in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellen, Stephen D.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.

    1988-01-01

    A catastrophic rainstorm in central California on January 3-5,1982, dropped as much as half the mean annual precipitation within a period of about 32 hours, triggering landslides and floods throughout 10 counties in the vicinity of the San Francisco Bay. More than 18,000 of the slides induced by the storm transformed into debris flows that swept down hillslopes or drainages with little warning. Debris flows damaged at least 100 homes, killed 14 residents, and carried a 15th victim into a creek. Shortly after rainfall ceased, more than 459,000 m3 of earth and rock slid from a mountainside above the community of Love Creek in Santa Cruz County, burying 10 people in their homes. Throughout the bay region, thousands of people vacated homes in hazardous areas, entire communities were isolated as roads were blocked, public water systems were destroyed, and power and telephone services were disrupted. Altogether, the storm damaged 6,300 homes, 1,500 businesses, and tens of kilometers of roads, bridges, and communication lines. Preliminary rough estimates of total storm damage, compiled for emergency purposes within 2 weeks of the storm, exceeded $280 million. Carefully documented direct costs from landslides exceeded $66 million; total costs from landslides certainly were greater and probably constituted a much larger proportion of the total storm damage than suggested by these disparate figures. Landslides accounted for 25 of the 33 deaths attributed to the storm.

  16. The Enhancement of Regional Disaster Management Agencies (BPBD of Sumbawa Regency’s Capability in Flash Flood Management Through Aid Assistance of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nudia Vebina Ayumahani

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The need for enhancing capability has a very important significance in effective disaster management activities. Regional Disaster Management Agencies (BPBD of Sumbawa Regency established cooperation with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA in enhancing the capability of flash flood management. The purpose of this research was to review and evaluate the JICA’s aid assistance programs toward BPBD of Sumbawa Regency, hereafter analyze the impact of the programs. Evaluation and analysis of this research were measured by three indicators of capability which is resources, leadership and policy implementation. This research used a qualitative descriptive method and proceed through the source and method triangulation. The researcher used purposive sampling technique in choosing seven informants from BPBD of Sumbawa Regency’s staff. The results showed that JICA’s aid assistance programs towards BPBD of Sumbawa Regency had been achieved by the targets and goals that have been determined. This program has impacted on enhancing the capability of resources that leads to the ability in Mapping, Technical Guidelines (JUKNIS and Disaster Management Plan (RPB. Increasing the capability of Human Resources (HR gives the effect of increasing capability in other fields such as financial resource capability, technical resource capability, leadership capability and policy implementation capability. The main factors in the success of the capability enhancement are the discipline factor of BPBD staff, high willingness to improve capability by BPBD staff, capability- enhancing programs, and clear direction from JICA.

  17. Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Luke

    2018-04-01

    pluvial flood hazards and by using concrete reference points to describe flooding scenarios rather than exceedance probabilities or frequencies.

  18. Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke, Adam; Sanders, Brett F.; Goodrich, Kristen A.; Feldman, David L.; Boudreau, Danielle; Eguiarte, Ana; Serrano, Kimberly; Reyes, Abigail; Schubert, Jochen E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard A.

    2018-04-01

    and by using concrete reference points to describe flooding scenarios rather than exceedance probabilities or frequencies.

  19. The views of experts and residents on social vulnerability to flash floods in an Alpine region of Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Marchi, Bruna; Scolobig, Anna

    2012-04-01

    This paper reports on research work performed for Floodsite a European Community-funded project on the social aspects of vulnerability in the Adige/Sarca river basin of the Trentino-Alto Adige region, Italy. It identifies some limitations to the use of a fixed set of indicators, which fail to account for either local peculiarities or the intangible aspects that contribute to the shaping of social vulnerability. The authors employed a number of methods to investigate the opinions of professionals and residents on risk and safety, distinguishing between the individual and the institutional components of social vulnerability. Adopting a systemic perspective, they explored the interactions between these two elements, showing how they may give rise to unexpected phenomena. The 'safety paradox' and the 'efficiency paradox' are discussed, emerging when increased protection provided by structural devices and dedicated institutions translates into a lack of awareness and agency on the part of residents. © 2012 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

  20. The use of taxation records in assessing historical floods in South Moravia, Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brázdil, R.; Chromá, K.; Řezníčková, L.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.; Stachoň, Z.; Soukalová, E.; Dobrovolný, P.

    2014-10-01

    Since the second half of the 17th century, tax relief has been available to farmers and landowners to offset flood damage to property (buildings) and land (fields, meadows, pastures, gardens) in South Moravia, Czech Republic. Historically, the written applications for this were supported by a relatively efficient bureaucratic process that left a clear data trail of documentation, preserved at several levels: in the communities affected, in regional offices, and in the Moravian Land Office, all of which are to be found in estate and family collections in the Moravian Land Archives in the city of Brno, the provincial capital. As well as detailed information about damage done and administrative responses to it, data are often preserved as to the flood event itself, the time of its occurrence and its impacts, sometimes together with causes and stages. The final flood database based on taxation records is used here to describe the temporal and spatial density of both flood events and the records themselves. The information derived is used to help create long-term flood chronologies for the rivers Dyje, Jihlava, Svratka and Morava, combining floods interpreted from taxation records with other documentary data and floods derived from later systematic hydrological measurements (water levels, discharges). Common periods of higher flood frequency appear largely in the periods 1821-1850 and 1921-1950, although this shifts to several other decades for individual rivers. A number of uncertainties are inseparable from flood data taxation records: their spatial and temporal incompleteness; the inevitable limitation to larger-scale damage and restriction to the summer half-year; and the different characters of rivers, including land-use changes and channel modifications. Taxation data have considerable potential for extending our knowledge of past floods for the rest of the Czech Republic, not to mention other European countries in which records have survived.

  1. The assessment and evaluation of low-frequency noise near the region of infrasound

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav Ziaran

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this paper is to present recent knowledge about the assessment and evaluation of low-frequency sounds (noise and infrasound, close to the threshold of hearing, and identify their potential effect on human health and annoyance. Low-frequency noise generated by air flowing over a moving car with an open window was chosen as a typical scenario which can be subjectively assessed by people traveling by automobile. The principle of noise generated within the interior of the car and its effects on the comfort of the driver and passengers are analyzed at different velocities. An open window of a car at high velocity behaves as a source of specifically strong tonal low-frequency noise which is generally perceived as annoying. The interior noise generated by an open window of a passenger car was measured under different conditions: Driving on a highway and driving on a typical roadway. First, an octave-band analysis was used to assess the noise level and its impact on the driver′s comfort. Second, a fast Fourier transform (FFT analysis and one-third octave-band analysis were used for the detection of tonal low-frequency noise. Comparison between two different car makers was also done. Finally, the paper suggests some possibilities for scientifically assessing and evaluating low-frequency sounds in general, and some recommendations are introduced for scientific discussion, since sounds with strong low-frequency content (but not only strong engender greater annoyance than is predicted by an A-weighted sound pressure level.

  2. Spatial Analysis of High-Resolution Radar Rainfall and Citizen-Reported Flash Flood Data in Ultra-Urban New York City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brianne Smith

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available New York City (NYC is an ultra-urban region, with over 50% impervious cover and buried stream channels. Traditional flood studies rely on the presence of stream gages to detect flood stage and discharge, but these methods cannot be used in ultra-urban areas. Here we create a high-resolution radar rainfall dataset for NYC and utilize citizen and expert reports of flooding throughout the city to study flash flooding in NYC. Results indicate that interactions between the urban area and land–sea boundary have an important impact on the spatial variability of both heavy rainfall and flooding, sometimes in contrast to results obtained for other cities. Top days of daily and hourly rainfall exhibit a rainfall maximum over the city center and an extended region of higher rainfall downwind of the city. The mechanism for flooding appears to vary across the city, with high groundwater tables influencing more coastal areas and high rain rates or large rain volumes influencing more inland areas. There is also a strong relationship between sewer type and flood frequency, with fewer floods observed in combined sewer areas. Flooding is driven by maximum one-hour to one-day rainfall, which is often substantially less rain than observed for the city-wide daily maximum.

  3. Low frequency geomagnetic field fluctuations at low latitude during the passage of a higher pressure solar wind region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Villante

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The passage of a higher pressure solar wind region at the Earth's orbit marked the onset of low latitude (L=1.6 fluctuations in the frequency range (0.8–5.5 mHz for both the horizontal geomagnetic field components. Spectral peaks mostly occur at the same frequencies as the spectral enhancements which appeared in the long term analysis of experimental measurements from the same station and were tentatively interpreted in terms of ground signatures of global magnetospheric modes. A comparison with simultaneous observations discussed by previous investigations allows us to conclude that the same set of frequencies is enhanced in a wide portion of the Earth's magnetosphere.

  4. Actionable Science for Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding to Help Avoid Maladaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, M. K.

    2017-12-01

    Rising sea levels increase the frequency of flooding at all levels, from nuisance to extreme, along coastlines across the world. Although recent flooding has increased the saliency of sea level rise (SLR) and the risks it presents to governments and communities, the effect of SLR on coastal hazards is complex and filled with uncertainty that is often uncomfortable for decision-makers. Although it is certain that SLR is occurring and will continue, its rate remains ambiguous. Because extreme flooding is by definition rare, there is also uncertainty in the effect of natural variability on flood frequency. These uncertainties pose methodological obstacles for integrating SLR into flood hazard projections and risk management. A major challenge is how to distill this complexity into information geared towards public sectors to help inform adaptation decision-making. Because policy windows are limited, budgets are tight, and decisions may have long-term consequences, it is especially important that this information accounts for uncertainty to help avoid damage and maladaptation. The U.S. Global Research Program, and others, describe this type of science—data and tools that help decision-makers plan for climate change impacts—as actionable [1]. We produce actionable science to support decision-making for adaptation to coastal impacts, despite uncertainty in projections of SLR and flood frequency. We found that SLR will boost the occurrence of minor rather than severe flooding in some regions of the U.S., while in other regions the reverse is true. For many cities, the current ten-year flood level will become a regular occurrence as the century progresses and by 2100 will occur every few days for some cities. This creates a mismatch with current planning in some cases. For example, a costly storm surge barrier may be built to protect parts of New York City from extreme flood levels but these are not often used because they are expensive to operate and obstructive to

  5. Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forest, Chris E. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology; Barsugli, Joseph J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). CIRES; Li, Wei [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology

    2015-02-20

    The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

  6. Diversity and frequency of Acacia spp. in three regions in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    bismillha

    2012-06-28

    Jun 28, 2012 ... effect of soil texture on the frequency of Acacia spp. ... structure. There were great differences between species in relation to diameter distribution. The study shows the scarcity of large diameter trees and also in some cases ... Key words: Acacia, diversity, soil texture, diameter at breast height (DBH) classes.

  7. Studies of Interfacial Regions by Sum-Frequency Generation with a Free-Electron Laser

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eliel, E. R.; van der Ham, E. W. M.; Vrehen, Q. H. F.; Thooft, G. W.; Barmentlo, M.; Auerhammer, J. M.; van der Meer, A. F. G.; van Amersfoort, P. W.

    1995-01-01

    The use of a Free-Electron Laser (FEL) allows the study of (non)linear optical properties of materials over unsurpassed large spectral intervals. As an example, we report on the use of a FEL as the infrared source in spectroscopic infrared-visible Sum-Frequency Generation (SFG). Employing the

  8. The frequency and distribution of recent landslides in three montane tropical regions of Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew C. Larsen; Angel J. Torres-Sanchez

    1998-01-01

    Landslides are common in steep mountainous areas of Puerto Rico where mean annual rainfall and the frequency of intense storms are high. Each year, landslides cause extensive damage to property and occasionally result in loss of life. Average population density is high, 422 peoplerkm2, and is increasing. This increase in population density is accompanied by growing...

  9. Matrix attachment regions (MARs) enhance transformation frequencies and reduce variance of transgene expression in barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, K.; Leah, R.; Knudsen, S.

    2002-01-01

    -MAR from petunia revealed that only the P1-MAR had specific binding affinity for barley nuclear matrices. The barley transformation frequency with the uidA reporter gene was increased 2-fold when the gene was flanked with either the P1-MAR or TBS-MAR, while the gene copy number was strongly reduced...

  10. Design basis flood for nuclear power plants on coastal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    This Guide discusses the phenomena causing coastal floods (storm surge, seiche, tsunami and wind-wave) and gives a general description of the methods used and the critical factors involved in the evaluation of such floods and of their associated effects. In addition, some treatment is presented of the possible combinations of two or more of these phenomena to produce a DBF. Methods are also provided for evaluating the reference water levels, taking into account the effect of tides, sea level anomalies and changes in lake level and river flow. Sites vulnerable to coastal flooding are located on open coastal regions, semi-enclosed bodies of water and enclosed bodies of water. Open coastal regions are those portions of land directly exposed to and having a shore on a major body of water. Semi-enclosed bodies of water are lagoons, river estuaries, gulfs, fjords and rias. Enclosed bodies of water are lakes and reservoirs. The phenomena of the lowering of the water level at coastal sites caused by offshore winds, low tides, wave effects or of drawdown caused by tsunamis are discussed. The static and dynamic effects of floods resulting from the various combinations (independent and interdependent) of surface waves of varying frequency are also discussed. Consideration is also given to shoreline instabilities and to the effects of erosion. Estimated flood levels and related effects on the nuclear power plant, which will vary according to the method of analysis and the type of flooding considered, shall be compared with available historical data where this is relevant, to check the conservativeness of the evaluated results

  11. Low frequency noise in the unstable contact region of Au-to-Au microcontact for microelectromechanical system switches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Haodong; Wang, Hong; Ke, Feixiang

    2014-06-01

    The noise behavior of Au-to-Au microcontact for microelectromechanical system switches has been experimentally studied in the unstable contact region. The results suggest that the electrical conduction remains nonmetallic at the initial stage during contact formation due to the existence of alien films, and traps in the alien layer located at the contact interface could play an important role in determining the conduction noise. The conduction fluctuation induced by electron trapping-detrapping associated with the hydrocarbon layer is found to be an intrinsic noise source contributing to the low frequency noise in the unstable contact region.

  12. Low frequency noise in the unstable contact region of Au-to-Au microcontact for microelectromechanical system switches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qiu, Haodong; Wang, Hong, E-mail: ewanghong@ntu.edu.sg [NOVITAS, Nanoelectronics Centre of Excellence, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Ke, Feixiang [Temasek Laboratories at Nanyang Technological University, Research Techno Plaza, Singapore 637553 (Singapore)

    2014-06-23

    The noise behavior of Au-to-Au microcontact for microelectromechanical system switches has been experimentally studied in the unstable contact region. The results suggest that the electrical conduction remains nonmetallic at the initial stage during contact formation due to the existence of alien films, and traps in the alien layer located at the contact interface could play an important role in determining the conduction noise. The conduction fluctuation induced by electron trapping-detrapping associated with the hydrocarbon layer is found to be an intrinsic noise source contributing to the low frequency noise in the unstable contact region.

  13. Low frequency noise in the unstable contact region of Au-to-Au microcontact for microelectromechanical system switches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Haodong; Wang, Hong; Ke, Feixiang

    2014-01-01

    The noise behavior of Au-to-Au microcontact for microelectromechanical system switches has been experimentally studied in the unstable contact region. The results suggest that the electrical conduction remains nonmetallic at the initial stage during contact formation due to the existence of alien films, and traps in the alien layer located at the contact interface could play an important role in determining the conduction noise. The conduction fluctuation induced by electron trapping-detrapping associated with the hydrocarbon layer is found to be an intrinsic noise source contributing to the low frequency noise in the unstable contact region.

  14. [Frequency and in vitro susceptibility antiparasitic of Blastocystis hominis from patients admitted to the Hospital Regional Lambayeque, Peru].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-Díaz, Heber; Flores-Esqueche, Lorena; Llatas-Cancino, Dunalia; Guevara Vásquez, Génesis; Silva-García, Teresa

    2016-01-01

    To describe the frequency and antiparasitic in vitro susceptibility of Blastocystis hominis in patients admitted to theHospital Regional Lambayeque, Peru. A cross-sectional study was conducted from January to August 2015 at 313 patients of all ages. B. hominis detection was performed on serial fecal samples by direct microscopic examination and microculture in modified Locke solution. The in vitro susceptibility testing against the drug metronidazole, nitazoxanide, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and erythromycin was performed in 24 strains of B. hominis, which grew up (microculture method) in 10 double concentrations of each antimicrobial (from 256 ug/ml to 0.5 ug/mL) plus a control. 46.3% (145/313) of the sample had B. hominis, also the age between 12 to 17 years and 60 years was associated with higher frequency of parasites (OR: 2.93 and 2.62). The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) 90 of metronidazole and nitazoxanide was 3.19 ug/mL and 11.19 ug/ml, respectively, whereas the MIC 90 of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and erythromycin were above 256 ug/mL. B. hominis occurs in high frequency in patients admitted to the Hospital Regional in Lambayeque, proving to be an important problem of public health in the region. Also B. hominis isolated from these patients were shown to be susceptible in vitro to low concentrations of metronidazole and nitazoxanide so they could be chosen for treatment of this parasite.

  15. Medium frequency radiowave absorption at sunrise and sunset times in the geomagnetic anomaly region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, K.R.; Pardo, P.M.R.

    1988-01-01

    The ionosphere, at lower regions, behaves differently during sunrise and sunset times compared to the others day times. The E layer which is well formed during the day, almost disappears at these times and the effect of solar presence or absence at these altitudes is well evidenced immediately after sunrise or sunset. In the South Atlantic anomaly region, the energetic particle precipitaton complicates the phenomenon comprehension in these times. The carried out studies on presunrise and presunset absorption effects in the period from May to July, 1986, in order to understand the ionization processes in the lower ionospheric regions at these times. (M.C.K.) [pt

  16. Update of regional intensity-duration-frequency curves in Denmark: Tendency towards increased storm intensities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, H.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2009-01-01

    The regional model for estimation of extreme rainfall characteristics in Denmark has been updated with data from the augmented rain database 1 January 1997-1 August 2005, corresponding to almost twice the amount of data used in the previous study (1 January 1979-1 January 1997). In general...... patterns and a sub-regional division of the country in a western and eastern part. Comparison with the previous regional analysis shows a general increase in extreme rainfall characteristics. For the durations (30 min-3 h) and return periods (similar to 10 years) typical for most urban drainage designs...

  17. A framework of integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic models using synthetic rainfall for flash flood hazard mapping of ungauged catchments in tropical zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Lohpaisankrit

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Flash flood hazard maps provide a scientific support to mitigate flash flood risk. The present study develops a practical framework with the help of integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling in order to estimate the potential flash floods. We selected a small pilot catchment which has already suffered from flash floods in the past. This catchment is located in the Nan River basin, northern Thailand. Reliable meteorological and hydrometric data are missing in the catchment. Consequently, the entire upper basin of the main river was modelled with the help of the hydrological modelling system PANTA RHEI. In this basin, three monitoring stations are located along the main river. PANTA RHEI was calibrated and validated with the extreme flood events in June 2011 and July 2008, respectively. The results show a good agreement with the observed discharge data. In order to create potential flash flood scenarios, synthetic rainfall series were derived from temporal rainfall patterns based on the radar-rainfall observation and different rainfall depths from regional rainfall frequency analysis. The temporal rainfall patterns were characterized by catchment-averaged rainfall series selected from 13 rainstorms in 2008 and 2011 within the region. For regional rainfall frequency analysis, the well-known L-moments approach and related criteria were used to examine extremely climatic homogeneity of the region. According to the L-moments approach, Generalized Pareto distribution was recognized as the regional frequency distribution. The synthetic rainfall series were fed into the PANTA RHEI model. The simulated results from PANTA RHEI were provided to a 2-D hydrodynamic model (MEADFLOW, and various simulations were performed. Results from the integrated modelling framework are used in the ongoing study to regionalize and map the spatial distribution of flash flood hazards with four levels of flood severities. As an overall outcome, the presented framework

  18. A Scaling Analysis of Frequency Dependent Energy Partition for Local and Regional Seismic Phases from Explosions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-08-31

    explosions at the former Soviet Semipalatinsk test site (STS). Labeled stations are those for which high resolution digital data are available. 12 8...characteristics of regional phase observations from underground nuclear explosions at the former Soviet Semipalatinsk and Novaya Zemlya test sites , the...various regional phases observed from underground nuclear explosions at the former Soviet Semipalatinsk test site (STS). Labeled stations are those for

  19. Frequency, delay and velocity analysis for intrinsic channel region of carbon nanotube field effect transistors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Geetha

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Gate wrap around field effect transistor is preferred for its good channel control. To study the high frequency behaviour of the device, parameters like cut-off frequency, transit or delay time, velocity are calculated and plotted. Double-walled and array of channels are considered in this work for enhanced output and impedance matching of the device with the measuring equipment terminal respectively. The perfomance of double-walledcarbon nanotube is compared with single-walled carbon nanotube and found that the device with double-wall shows appreciable improvement in its characteristics. Analysis of these parameters are done with various values of source/drain length, gate length, tube diameters and channel densities. The maximum cut-off frequency is found to be 72.3 THz with corresponding velocity as 5x106 m/s for channel density as 3 and gate length as 11nm. The number of channel is varied from 3 to 21 and found that the perfromance of the device containing double-walled carbon nano tube is better for channel number lesser than or equal to 12. The proposed modelling can be used for designing devices to handle high speed applications of future generation.

  20. Population genetical investigation of the level of mutagenesis and teratological events frequency in ecologically different regions of Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kashaganova, Zh.A.; Zhapbasov, R.; Kadyrova, N.Zh.; Karimbaeva, K.S.; Mamyrbaeva, A.N.; Altaeva, N.Z.

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Kazakhstan territory is unique including regions with radioactive pollution of Semipalatinsk nuclear test territory and storage of radioactive waste of uranium mines and metallurgy enterprises, and regions of drying Aral sea. These technogenic factors may cause some types of chromosome aberrations and developmental anomalies in mammals. The level of mutagenesis was estimated basing on chromosome aberrations and genomic mutation frequencies in bone marrow cells of natural rodents populations (Allactaga major Kern, Allactaga saltator Eversman, Cytellus eritrogenus Br.) and domestic animals (sheep, cattle, horse), which inhabit these regions. Sheep populations which are bred in the regions with different climatic conditions were used for teratological investigations. Different generations are met in the populations of mice family rodents caught in the nature. So studying the animals of different ages separately we can estimate the frequency of mutations in the animals of different age inhabiting the same radiation polluted regions. The frequency of chromosome abe rations in mice family rodents from such territories was twice as high as from the clear territories. In some animals chromosome aberration types characteristic for radiation mutagenesis (dicentrics, double acentric fragments) were found. High level of cytogenetical instability in somatic cells of agricultural animals which were bred on the pastures within former nuclear test territories for several generations may be caused by chronic radiation in low doses. The analysis of the spectrum of recorder chromosome aberrations in somatic cells and their dynamics in different animal species inhabiting for several generations these territories being chronically irradiated, allows us to investigate the direction of genetical evolution of mammals genofond structure induced by ecological factors. Comparative analysis of the frequencies of spontaneous abortuses, deadborn and newborn animals with innate

  1. Projections of Flood Risk using Credible Climate Signals in the Ohio River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlef, K.; Robertson, A. W.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    Estimating future hydrologic flood risk under non-stationary climate is a key challenge to the design of long-term water resources infrastructure and flood management strategies. In this work, we demonstrate how projections of large-scale climate patterns can be credibly used to create projections of long-term flood risk. Our study area is the northwest region of the Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest. In the region, three major teleconnections have been previously demonstrated to affect synoptic patterns that influence extreme precipitation and streamflow: the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These teleconnections are strongest during the winter season (January-March), which also experiences the greatest number of peak flow events. For this reason, flood events are defined as the maximum daily streamflow to occur in the winter season. For each gage in the region, the location parameter of a log Pearson type 3 distribution is conditioned on the first principal component of the three teleconnections to create a statistical model of flood events. Future projections of flood risk are created by forcing the statistical model with projections of the teleconnections from general circulation models selected for skill. We compare the results of our method to the results of two other methods: the traditional model chain (i.e., general circulation model projections to downscaling method to hydrologic model to flood frequency analysis) and that of using the historic trend. We also discuss the potential for developing credible projections of flood events for the continental United States.

  2. Flood hazards for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yen, B.C.

    1988-01-01

    Flooding hazards for nuclear power plants may be caused by various external geophysical events. In this paper the hydrologic hazards from flash floods, river floods and heavy rain at the plant site are considered. Depending on the mode of analysis, two types of hazard evaluation are identified: 1) design hazard which is the probability of flooding over an expected service period, and 2) operational hazard which deals with real-time forecasting of the probability of flooding of an incoming event. Hazard evaluation techniques using flood frequency analysis can only be used for type 1) design hazard. Evaluation techniques using rainfall-runoff simulation or multi-station correlation can be used for both types of hazard prediction. (orig.)

  3. Propagation and composition of the flood wave on the upper Mississippi River, 1993

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moody, John A.

    1995-01-01

    During spring and summer 1993, record flooding inundated much of the upper Mississippi River Basin. The magnitude of the damages-in terms of property, disrupted business, and personal trauma was unmatched by any other flood disaster in United States history. Property damage alone is expected to exceed $10 billion. Damaged highways and submerged roads disrupted overland transportation throughout the flooded region. The Mississippi and the Missouri Rivers were closed to navigation before, during, and after the flooding. Millions of acres of productive farmland remained under water for weeks during the growing season. Rills and gullies in many tilled fields are the result of the severe erosion that occurred throughout the Midwestern United States farmbelt. The hydrologic effects of extended rainfall throughout the upper Midwestern United States were severe and widespread. The banks and channels of many rivers were severely eroded, and sediment was deposited over large areas of the basin's flood plain. Record flows submerged many areas that had not been affected by previous floods. Industrial and agricultural areas were inundated, which caused concern about the transport and fate of industrial chemicals, sewage effluent, and agricultural chemicals in the floodwaters. The extent and duration of the flooding caused numerous levees to fail. One failed levee on the Raccoon River in Des Moines, Iowa, led to flooding of the city's water treatment plant. As a result, the city was without drinking water for 19 days.As the Nation's principal water-science agency, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is in a unique position to provide an immediate assessment of some of the hydrological effects of the 1993 flood. The USGS maintains a hydrologic data network and conducts extensive water-resources investigations nationwide. Long-term data from this network and information on local and regional hydrology provide the basis for identifying and documenting the effects of the flooding

  4. Exploring Flood Resilience Thinking in the Retail Sector under Climate Change: A Case Study of an Estuarine Region of Taipei City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chang Chiang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available With predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change that may induce morphological changes of estuaries, increased estuarine flood risk needs to be considered. The aim of this case study was to contemplate sustainability from the perspective of flood resilience that focuses on environmental problems and solutions. The study provided insights into retailers’ resilience thinking regarding the flood-prone Shetzu Peninsula in Taipei City. It is of concern that the retailers strategically identified potential flood risks and have developed adaptive knowledge, skills, and networks. The Location Quotient (LQ analysis was conducted to verify that the retail sector of Shetzu Peninsula was considered a basic industry. Further assessments, an interactive visualization model and a consumption intensity map, were provided as supportive data. Based on the results, semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore 15 key retailers’ resilience thinking on how to adapt to floods in terms of risk communication under climate change. This approach is vital to meet the adaptation challenge in the Shetzu Peninsula. As a result, the study indicated that retailers have strategically identified potential weather-related risks and have implemented adaptation plans for each store functions. The study discussed that, in the face of climate change, maladaptation, interactive visualization models for communicating flood risks, and place attachment are key issues to increase flood resilience under climate change. The introduction of adaptation interventions in terms of urban resilience as a part of a comprehensive strategy helps to manage the impacts of climate change towards urban sustainability.

  5. Assessment of Tangible Direct Flood Damage Using a Spatial Analysis Approach under the Effects of Climate Change: Case Study in an Urban Watershed in Hanoi, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Kefi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of Hydro-Meteorological disasters, such as floods, are increasing. Therefore, the main purpose of this work is to assess tangible future flood damage in the urban watershed of the To Lich River in Hanoi, Vietnam. An approach based on spatial analysis, which requires the integration of several types of data related to flood characteristics that include depth, in particular, land-use classes, property values, and damage rates, is applied for the analysis. To simulate the future scenarios of flooding, the effects of climate change and land-use changes are estimated for 2030. Additionally, two scenarios based on the implementation of flood control measures are analyzed to demonstrate the effect of adaptation strategies. The findings show that climate change combined with the expansion of built-up areas increases the vulnerability of urban areas to flooding and economic damage. The results also reveal that the impacts of climate change will increase the total damage from floods by 26%. However, appropriate flood mitigation will be helpful in reducing the impacts of losses from floods by approximately 8% with the restoration of lakes and by approximately 29% with the implementation of water-sensitive urban design (WSUD. This study will be useful in helping to identify and map flood-prone areas at local and regional scales, which can lead to the detection and prioritization of exposed areas for appropriate countermeasures in a timely manner. In addition, the quantification of flood damage can be an important indicator to enhance the awareness of local decision-makers on improving the efficiency of regional flood risk reduction strategies.

  6. [Effects of therapeutic complexes including balneoradonokinesitherapy, electromyostimulation and low-frequency magnetotherapy on regional blood flow in patients with postrraumatic gonarthritis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raspopova, E A; Udartsev, E Iu

    2006-01-01

    Balneoradonokinesitherapy alone and its combination with electrostimulation and low-frequency magnetotherapy were used for the treatment of regional blood flow disorders in 76 patients with posttraumatic gonarthritis. Balneoradonokinesitherapy in combination with electromyostimulation improved blood circulation. When low-frequency magnetotherapy was added to the latter complex, the regress of regional blood flow disorders of a damaged extremity was most significant.

  7. FORECAST OF THE DYNAMICS FLOODING OF THE CRIMEAN AREA DURING OF FLASH FLOODS IN 2012ON THE BASIS COMPUTER SIMULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. O. Agafonnikova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics features of the surface waters for the territory of the Crimea area of Krasnodar region in flash flood conditions have been studied. The parameters of flooding depending on the precipitation intensity have been defined.

  8. Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archfield, Stacey A.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2016-01-01

    Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large-scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States.

  9. A study of the frequency of methylation of gene promoter regions in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2013-04-02

    Apr 2, 2013 ... colorectal cancer in the Taiwanese population. CHANG-CHIEH WU1 ... hypermethylation of promoter-region CpG islands is an important ... mismatch repair gene MLH1 plays an important role in dele- ..... Asia Pac. J. Clin.

  10. High Frequency Backscatter from the Polar and Auroral E-Region Ionosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, Victoriya V.

    The Earth's ionosphere contains collisional and partially-ionized plasma. The electric field, produced by the interaction between the Earth's magnetosphere and the solar wind, drives the plasma bulk motion, also known as convection, in the F-region of the ionosphere. It can also destabilize the plasma in the E-region, producing irregularities or waves. Intermediate-scale waves with wavelengths of hundreds of meters can cause scintillation and fading of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals, whereas the small-scale waves (lambda Network (SuperDARN). The theoretical part of this work focuses on symmetry properties of the general dispersion relation that describes wave propagation in the collisional plasma in the two-stream and gradient-drift instability regimes. The instability growth rate and phase velocity are examined under the presence of a background parallel electric field, whose influence is demonstrated to break the spatial symmetry of the wave propagation patterns. In the observational part of this thesis, a novel dual radar setup is used to examine E-region irregularities in the magnetic polar cap by probing the E-region along the same line from opposite directions. The phase velocity analysis together with raytracing simulations demonstrated that, in the polar cap, the radar backscatter is primarily controlled by the plasma density conditions. In particular, when the E-region layer is strong and stratified, the radar backscatter properties are controlled by the convection velocity, whereas for a tilted E-layer, the height and aspect angle conditions are more important. Finally, the fundamental dependence of the E-region irregularity phase velocity on the component of the plasma convection is investigated using two new SuperDARN radars at high southern latitudes where plasma convection estimates are accurately deduced from all SuperDARN radars in the southern hemisphere. Statistical analysis is presented showing that the predominance of the

  11. Lessons Learned from Southeast Asian Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osti, R.; Tanaka, S.

    2009-04-01

    At certain scales, flood has always been the lifeline of many people from Southeast Asian countries. People are traditionally accustomed to living with such floods and their livelihood is adjusted accordingly to optimize the benefits from the floods. However, large scale flood occasionally turns into the disaster and causes massive destruction not only in terms of human causalities but also damage to economic, ecological and social harmonies in the region. Although economic growth is prevailing in a relative term, the capacity of people to cope with such extreme events is weakening therefore the flood disaster risk is increasing in time. Recent examples of flood disaster in the region clearly show the increasing severity of disaster impact. This study reveals that there are many factors, which directly or indirectly influence the change. This paper considers the most prominent natural and socio-economic factors and analyzes their trend with respect to flood disasters in each country's context. A regional scale comparative analysis further helps to exchange the know how and to determine what kind of strategy and policy are lacking to manage the floods in a long run. It is also helpful in identifying the critical sectors that should be addressed first to mitigate the potential damage from the floods.

  12. BMFO-PVDF electrospun fiber based tunable metamaterial structures for electromagnetic interference shielding in microwave frequency region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revathi, Venkatachalam; Dinesh Kumar, Sakthivel; Subramanian, Venkatachalam; Chellamuthu, Muthamizhchelvan

    2015-11-01

    Metamaterial structures are artificial structures that are useful in controlling the flow of electromagnetic radiation. In this paper, composite fibers of sub-micron thickness of barium substituted magnesium ferrite (Ba0.2Mg0.8Fe2O4) - polyvinylidene fluoride obtained by electrospinning is used as a substrate to design electromagnetic interference shielding structures. While electrospinning improves the ferroelectric properties of the polyvinylidene fluoride, the presence of barium magnesium ferrite modifies the magnetic property of the composite fiber. The dielectric and magnetic properties at microwave frequency measured using microwave cavity perturbation technique are used to design the reflection as well as absorption based tunable metamaterial structures for electromagnetic interference shielding in microwave frequency region. For one of the structures, the simulation indicates that single negative metamaterial structure becomes a double negative metamaterial under the external magnetic field.

  13. Multiple frequency radar observations of high-latitude E region irregularities in the HF modified ionosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noble, S.T.; Djuth, F.T.; Jost, R.J.

    1987-01-01

    In September 1983, experiments were conducted in Scandinavia using the high-power heating facility near Tromso, Norway. The purpose of the HF ionospheric modification experiments was to investigate the behavior of artificially produced E region irregularities at auroral latitudes. The majority of observations were made with backscatter radars operating at 46.9 and 143.8 MHz, but limited observations were also made at 21.4 and 140.0 MHz. These radars are sensitive to irregularities having scale lengths of between 1 and 7 m across the geomagnetic field lines. The growth and decay of the irregularities are scale length dependent with the shorter lengths growing and dissipating more rapidly than the longer lengths (e-folding growth times = 10 1 --10 2 ms; decay times = 10 2 --10 3 ms). During periods of full power ordinary mode heating, irregularities having peak cross sections of 10 4 m 2 at 46.9 MHz and 10 5 m 2 at 143.8 MHz are observed. However, the cross sections normally measured are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the peak values. The cross sections are nonlinearly dependent on the HF power and begin to saturate at levels greater than 50--75 percent of full power. Past E and F region data from Arecibo are used in conjunction with the Tromso measurements to ascertain the relative roles played by various mechanisms in exciting irregularities. In the E region, the results tend to favor those instability processes which operate at the upper hybrid resonance level (e.g., thermal parametric and resonance instabilities) over those that operate at the reflection level (e.g., parametric decay instability). However, it is likely that anyh of the mechanisms studied could at times contribute to irregularity production in the E regions

  14. Change in Dielectric Properties in the Microwave Frequency Region of Polypyrrole–Coated Textiles during Aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Hakansson

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Complex permittivity of conducting polypyrrole (PPy-coated Nylon-Lycra textiles is measured using a free space transmission measurement technique over the frequency range of 1–18 GHz. The aging of microwave dielectric properties and reflection, transmission and absorption for a period of 18 months is demonstrated. PPy-coated fabrics are shown to be lossy over the full frequency range. The levels of absorption are shown to be higher than reflection in the tested samples. This is attributed to the relatively high resistivity of the PPy-coated fabrics. Both the dopant concentration and polymerisation time affect the total shielding effectiveness and microwave aging behaviour. Distinguishing either of these two factors as being exclusively the dominant mechanism of shielding effectiveness is shown to be difficult. It is observed that the PPy-coated Nylon-Lycra samples with a p-toluene sulfonic acid (pTSA concentration of 0.015 M and polymerisation times of 60 min and 180 min have 37% and 26% decrease in total transmission loss, respectively, upon aging for 72 weeks at room temperature (20 °C, 65% Relative humidity (RH. The concentration of the dopant also influences the microwave aging behaviour of the PPy-coated fabrics. The samples with a higher dopant concentration of 0.027 mol/L pTSA are shown to have a transmission loss of 32.6% and 16.5% for short and long polymerisation times, respectively, when aged for 72 weeks. The microwave properties exhibit better stability with high dopant concentration and/or longer polymerization times. High pTSA dopant concentrations and/or longer polymerisation times result in high microwave insertion loss and are more effective in reducing the transmission and also increasing the longevity of the electrical properties.

  15. Modulation of local field potentials by high-frequency stimulation of afferent axons in the hippocampal CA1 region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Ying; Feng, Zhouyan; Cao, Jiayue; Guo, Zheshan; Wang, Zhaoxiang; Hu, Na; Wei, Xuefeng

    2016-03-01

    Modulation of the rhythmic activity of local field potentials (LFP) in neuronal networks could be a mechanism of deep brain stimulation (DBS). However, exact changes of LFP during the periods of high-frequency stimulation (HFS) of DBS are unclear because of the interference of dense stimulation artifacts with high amplitudes. In the present study, we investigated LFP changes induced by HFS of afferent axons in the hippocampal CA1 region of urethane-anesthetized rats by using a proper algorithm of artifact removal. Afterward, the LFP changes in the frequency bands of [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] rhythms were studied by power spectrum analysis and coherence analysis for the recorded signals collected in the pyramidal layer and in the stratum radiatum of CA1 region before, during and after 1-min long 100 and 200[Formula: see text]Hz HFS. Results showed that the power of LFP rhythms in higher-frequency band ([Formula: see text] rhythm) increased in the pyramidal layer and the power of LFP rhythms in lower-frequency bands ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] rhythms) decreased in the stratum radiatum during HFS. The synchronization of [Formula: see text] rhythm decreased and the synchronization of [Formula: see text] rhythm increased during HFS in the stratum radiatum. These results suggest that axonal HFS could modulate LFP rhythms in the downstream brain areas with a plausible underlying mechanism of partial axonal blockage induced by HFS. The study provides new evidence to support the mechanism of DBS modulating rhythmic activity of neuronal populations.

  16. HFE gene C282Y, H63D and S65C mutations frequency in the Transylvania region, Romania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifa, Adrian P; Popp, Radu A; Militaru, Mariela S; Farcaş, Marius F; Crişan, Tania O; Gana, Ionuţ; Cucuianu, Andrei; Pop, Ioan V

    2012-06-01

    HFE-associated haemochromatosis is one of the most frequent autosomal recessive disorders in the Caucasian population. Although most of the cases are homozygous individuals for the C282Y mutation, another two mutations, H63D and S65C, have been reported to be associated with milder forms of the disease. This study was a first attempt to evaluate the distribution of these HFE gene mutations in the Transylvania region. Two-hundred and twenty-five healthy, unrelated volunteers originating from the Transylvania region, Romania, were screened for the HFE gene C282Y, H63D and S65C mutations, using molecular genetics assays (Polymerase Chain Reaction-Restriction Fragments Length Polymorphism). For the C282Y mutation, 7 heterozygotes (3.1%) were found, but no homozygous individual. In the case of the H63D mutation, 40 heterozygotes (17.8%) and 4 homozygotes (1.75%) for the mutant allele were evidenced. We found a compound heterozygous genotype (C282Y/H63D) in one individual (0.45%). Thus, the allele frequencies of the C282Y and H63D were 1.75% and 10.9%, respectively. Three individuals (1.3%) were found to harbour the S65C mutation in a heterozygous state, but none in a homozygous state: the allele frequency of the mutant allele was 0.75%. The distribution of the HFE gene C282Y, H63D and S65C mutations found in our group matches the tendencies observed in other European countries: a decreasing gradient from Northern to Southern Europe for the C282Y mutation; high frequency for the H63D mutation, and low frequency for the S65C mutation in most of the countries.

  17. Flood-flow analysis for Kabul river at Warsak on the basis of flow-records of Kabul river at Nowshera

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, B.

    2007-01-01

    High flows and stream discharge have long been measured and used by the engineers in the design of hydraulic structures and flood-protection works and in planning for flood-plain use. Probability-analysis is the basis for the engineering design of many projects and advance information about flood-forecasting. High-flow analysis or flood-frequency studies interpret a past record of events, to predict the future probability of occurrence. In many countries, including the author's country, the long term flow data required for design of hydraulic structures and flood-protection works are not available. In such cases, the only tool with hydrologists is to extend the short-term flow data available at some other site in the region. The present study is made to find a reliable estimation of maximum instantaneous flood for higher frequ