ARC-VM: An architecture real options complexity-based valuation methodology for military systems-of-systems acquisitions

Science.gov (United States)

Domercant, Jean Charles

The combination of today's national security environment and mandated acquisition policies makes it necessary for military systems to interoperate with each other to greater degrees. This growing interdependency results in complex Systems-of-Systems (SoS) that only continue to grow in complexity to meet evolving capability needs. Thus, timely and affordable acquisition becomes more difficult, especially in the face of mounting budgetary pressures. To counter this, architecting principles must be applied to SoS design. The research objective is to develop an Architecture Real Options Complexity-Based Valuation Methodology (ARC-VM) suitable for acquisition-level decision making, where there is a stated desire for more informed tradeoffs between cost, schedule, and performance during the early phases of design. First, a framework is introduced to measure architecture complexity as it directly relates to military SoS. Development of the framework draws upon a diverse set of disciplines, including Complexity Science, software architecting, measurement theory, and utility theory. Next, a Real Options based valuation strategy is developed using techniques established for financial stock options that have recently been adapted for use in business and engineering decisions. The derived complexity measure provides architects with an objective measure of complexity that focuses on relevant complex system attributes. These attributes are related to the organization and distribution of SoS functionality and the sharing and processing of resources. The use of Real Options provides the necessary conceptual and visual framework to quantifiably and traceably combine measured architecture complexity, time-valued performance levels, as well as programmatic risks and uncertainties. An example suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) capability demonstrates the development and usefulness of the resulting architecture complexity & Real Options based valuation methodology. Different

A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Hyounkyu; Park, Taeil; Kim, Byungil; Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2013-01-01

The clean development mechanism (CDM) provides a way of assisting sustainable development in developing countries for developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite its intended benefits, the primary CDM market decreased from US$5.8 billion in 2006 to US$1.5 billion in 2010. One of the primary reasons for the reduction of market size is that developed countries as investors have a high level of risks caused by the volatility of the market price for certified emission reductions (CERs). Another issue to be resolved is that developing countries as host countries cannot claim any right to the CERs produced on their own land. This paper presents a real option-based model for both parties (developed and developing countries) to have their fair share of profits and risks by controlling the uncertainty associated with the future value of CERs. A case study illustrated that the proposed model can effectively attract investors to CDM projects leading to mitigation of climate change. - Highlights: ► This study focused on the risks associated with the uncertainty of future CER value in CDM projects. ► A real option-based model was developed for both parties in CDM to have fair share of profit and risk. ► Key variables and boundary conditions were identified for application of real option to CDM. ► The model allowed both parties to own options, which have an identical value. ► Hydropower plant projects in Indonesia were used to illustrate the implementation of the model

Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicoleta Vintila

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Traditional discounted cash-flows method for assessing projects assumes that investment decision is an irreversible one, which is not correct. Managers can and must reconsider their initial decision as the new information arises during the project life. This is managerial flexibility and it creates strategic value for a project, only if management takes advantage of the opportunities associated with an analyzed project. Real options represent a new approach in capital budgeting, using the theory of pricing financial options for investments in real assets. In this paper, we emphasize the characteristics and valuation methodologies of real options. The objective in the last section is pricing the option to delay and the option to abandon a project in construction materials field.

The RealGas and RealGasH2O Options of the TOUGH+ Code for the Simulation of Coupled Fluid and Heat Flow in Tight/Shale Gas Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moridis, George; Freeman, Craig

2013-09-30

We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas . The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and shale gas) reservoirs. The gas mixture is treated as either a single-pseudo-component having a fixed composition, or as a multicomponent system composed of up to 9 individual real gases. The RealGas option has the same general capabilities, but does not include water, thus describing a single-phase, dry-gas system. In addition to the standard capabilities of all members of the TOUGH+ family of codes (fully-implicit, compositional simulators using both structured and unstructured grids), the capabilities of the two codes include: coupled flow and thermal effects in porous and/or fractured media, real gas behavior, inertial (Klinkenberg) effects, full micro-flow treatment, Darcy and non-Darcy flow through the matrix and fractures of fractured media, single- and multi-component gas sorption onto the grains of the porous media following several isotherm options, discrete and fracture representation, complex matrix-fracture relationships, and porosity-permeability dependence on pressure changes. The two options allow the study of flow and transport of fluids and heat over a wide range of time frames and spatial scales not only in gas reservoirs, but also in problems of geologic storage of greenhouse gas mixtures, and of geothermal reservoirs with multi-component condensable (H2O and CH4) and non-condensable gas mixtures. The codes are verified against available analytical and semi-analytical solutions. Their capabilities are demonstrated in a series of problems of increasing complexity, ranging from isothermal flow in simpler 1D and 2D conventional gas reservoirs, to non-isothermal gas flow in 3D fractured shale gas reservoirs involving 4 types of fractures, micro-flow, non-Darcy flow and gas

Franchise ownership redirection: real options perspective

OpenAIRE

Nugroho, Lukito Adi

2016-01-01

Background: For over 40 years, the franchise ownership redirection hypothesis has attracted the attention of many scholars. This study, differing from previous ones, proposes an alternative approach for this hypothesis using a real options framework with the extension of agency theory. Method: The real options model is built using the least square Monte Carlo method, where the franchisor's decision to franchise is perceived as a deferred investment while maintaining the right of future acquis...

Real Options Analysis of Electricity Investments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heggedal, Ane Marte

2012-07-01

This thesis utilizes real options analysis for evaluating investment opportunities in the electricity sector. It also formally tests how investors in hydropower plants have included uncertainty when considering their investment opportunities. The real options method applies financial options theory to quantify the value of management flexibility and is chosen due to three important characteristics of investments in the electricity sector. First; the investment is completely or partially irreversible, second; the investor can choose when to invest in the facility, and third; there is uncertainty in several factors affecting the cash flows of the investments. Factors of uncertainty include the development of electricity prices, policies, technological advances, and macroeconomics measures.Four papers are included in this thesis. Paper 1, Upgrading hydropower plants with storage: Timing and capacity choice, presents a valuation framework for deciding when to upgrade an existing hydropower plant and which capacity to choose. The second paper, Transmission capacity between Norway and Germany: A real options analysis, sheds light on when two electricity markets, in this case Norway and Germany, should be connected through a sub sea cable. The investor can choose when to invest and the capacity of the cable, and may also choose to invest sequentially. Paper 3, Optimal timing and capacity choice for pumped hydropower storage, investigates when investment in a pumped hydropower plant with storage should be undertaken and what the capacity of the facility should be. Whereas the three first papers investigate investment opportunities, Paper 4, Uncertain climate policy decisions and investment timing: Evidence from small hydropower plants, studies when investors in small hydropower plants chose to invest. The analyses disclose whether the net present value approach or the real options method best describe the investment decisions made by the investors. Viewing investment

Valuing real options: frequently made errors

OpenAIRE

Fernández, Pablo

2002-01-01

In this paper we analyze frequently made errors when valuing real options. The best way of doing it is through examples. We start by analyzing Damodaran's proposal to value the option to expand the business of Home Depot. Some of the errors and problems of this and other approaches are: - Assuming that the option is replicable and using Black and Scholes' formula. - The estimation of the option's volatility is arbitrary and has a decisive effect on the option's value. - As there is no riskles...

INVESTMENT IN ANTIVIRAL DRUGS : A REAL OPTIONS APPROACH

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Attema, Arthur E.; Lugner, Anna K.; Feenstra, Talitha L.

2010-01-01

Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations

Real-time simulation of a Doubly-Fed Induction Generator based wind power system on eMEGASimRTM Real-Time Digital Simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Boakye-Boateng, Nasir Abdulai

The growing demand for wind power integration into the generation mix prompts the need to subject these systems to stringent performance requirements. This study sought to identify the required tools and procedures needed to perform real-time simulation studies of Doubly-Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) based wind generation systems as basis for performing more practical tests of reliability and performance for both grid-connected and islanded wind generation systems. The author focused on developing a platform for wind generation studies and in addition, the author tested the performance of two DFIG models on the platform real-time simulation model; an average SimpowerSystemsRTM DFIG wind turbine, and a detailed DFIG based wind turbine using ARTEMiSRTM components. The platform model implemented here consists of a high voltage transmission system with four integrated wind farm models consisting in total of 65 DFIG based wind turbines and it was developed and tested on OPAL-RT's eMEGASimRTM Real-Time Digital Simulator.

Implementation of SoC Based Real-Time Electromagnetic Transient Simulator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Herrera-Leandro

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Real-time electromagnetic transient simulators are important tools in the design stage of new control and protection systems for power systems. Real-time simulators are used to test and stress new devices under similar conditions that the device will deal with in a real network with the purpose of finding errors and bugs in the design. The computation of an electromagnetic transient is complex and computationally demanding, due to features such as the speed of the phenomenon, the size of the network, and the presence of time variant and nonlinear elements in the network. In this work, the development of a SoC based real-time and also offline electromagnetic transient simulator is presented. In the design, the required performance is met from two sides, (a using a technique to split the power system into smaller subsystems, which allows parallelizing the algorithm, and (b with specialized and parallel hardware designed to boost the solution flow. The results of this work have shown that for the proposed case studies, based on a balanced distribution of the node of subsystems, the proposed approach has decreased the total simulation time by up to 99 times compared with the classical approach running on a single high performance 32-bit embedded processor ARM-Cortex A9.

Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, Ching-Tsung; Lo, Shang-Lien; Lin, Tyrone T.

2011-01-01

The energy industry, accounts for the largest portion of CO 2 emissions, is facing the issue of compliance with the national clean energy policy. The methodology for evaluating the energy mix policy is crucial because of the characteristics of lead time embedded with the power generation facilities investment and the uncertainty of future electricity demand. In this paper, a modified binomial model based on sequential compound options, which may account for the lead time and uncertainty as a whole is established, and a numerical example on evaluating the optional strategies and the strategic value of the cleaner energy policy is also presented. It is found that the optimal decision at some nodes in the binomial tree is path dependent, which is different from the standard sequential compound option model with lead time or time lag concept. The proposed modified binomial sequential compound real options model can be generalized and extensively applied to solve the general decision problems that deal with the long lead time of many government policies as well as capital intensive investments. - Highlights: → Introducing a flexible strategic management approach for government policy making. → Developing a modified binomial real options model based on sequential compound options. → Proposing an innovative model for managing the long term policy with lead time. → Applying to evaluate the options of various scenarios of cleaner energy strategies.

Towards phronetic knowledge for strategic planning in corporate real estate management: A real options approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

2014-01-01

Purpose – The objective of this paper is to provide insights about the potential of real option thinking for corporate real estate management (CREM) from the owner-user perspective. A promising approach to classifying and evaluating flexibility in real estate is the real options approach. Most

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

Real option analysis in a replicating portfolio perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Heeswijk, W.J.A.; Joosten, Reinoud A.M.G.; Huisman, Kuno; Bos, Christian

2013-01-01

In the last decades, a vast body of literature has arisen on real option analysis (ROA). The use of di¤erent approaches and the often implicit adoption of major assumptions may cause confusion on what ROA precisely entails, or in which situations it may be applied. We assess the �eld of real option

Operational characteristic analysis of conduction cooling HTS SMES for Real Time Digital Simulator based power quality enhancement simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, A.R.; Kim, G.H.; Kim, K.M.; Kim, D.W.; Park, M.; Yu, I.K.; Kim, S.H.; Sim, K.; Sohn, M.H.; Seong, K.C.

2010-01-01

This paper analyzes the operational characteristics of conduction cooling Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES) through a real hardware based simulation. To analyze the operational characteristics, the authors manufactured a small-scale toroidal-type SMES and implemented a Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) based power quality enhancement simulation. The method can consider not only electrical characteristics such as inductance and current but also temperature characteristic by using the real SMES system. In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method, a voltage sag compensation simulation has been implemented using the RTDS connected with the High Temperature Superconducting (HTS) model coil and DC/DC converter system, and the simulation results are discussed in detail.

Hard real-time multibody simulations using ARM-based embedded systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pastorino, Roland, E-mail: roland.pastorino@kuleuven.be, E-mail: rpastorino@udc.es; Cosco, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.cosco@kuleuven.be; Naets, Frank, E-mail: frank.naets@kuleuven.be; Desmet, Wim, E-mail: wim.desmet@kuleuven.be [KU Leuven, PMA division, Department of Mechanical Engineering (Belgium); Cuadrado, Javier, E-mail: javicuad@cdf.udc.es [Universidad de La Coruña, Laboratorio de Ingeniería Mecánica (Spain)

2016-05-15

The real-time simulation of multibody models on embedded systems is of particular interest for controllers and observers such as model predictive controllers and state observers, which rely on a dynamic model of the process and are customarily executed in electronic control units. This work first identifies the software techniques and tools required to easily write efficient code for multibody models to be simulated on ARM-based embedded systems. Automatic Programming and Source Code Translation are the two techniques that were chosen to generate source code for multibody models in different programming languages. Automatic Programming is used to generate procedural code in an intermediate representation from an object-oriented library and Source Code Translation is used to translate the intermediate representation automatically to an interpreted language or to a compiled language for efficiency purposes. An implementation of these techniques is proposed. It is based on a Python template engine and AST tree walkers for Source Code Generation and on a model-driven translator for the Source Code Translation. The code is translated from a metalanguage to any of the following four programming languages: Python-Numpy, Matlab, C++-Armadillo, C++-Eigen. Two examples of multibody models were simulated: a four-bar linkage with multiple loops and a 3D vehicle steering system. The code for these examples has been generated and executed on two ARM-based single-board computers. Using compiled languages, both models could be simulated faster than real-time despite the low resources and performance of these embedded systems. Finally, the real-time performance of both models was evaluated when executed in hard real-time on Xenomai for both embedded systems. This work shows through measurements that Automatic Programming and Source Code Translation are valuable techniques to develop real-time multibody models to be used in embedded observers and controllers.

Hard real-time multibody simulations using ARM-based embedded systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pastorino, Roland; Cosco, Francesco; Naets, Frank; Desmet, Wim; Cuadrado, Javier

2016-01-01

The real-time simulation of multibody models on embedded systems is of particular interest for controllers and observers such as model predictive controllers and state observers, which rely on a dynamic model of the process and are customarily executed in electronic control units. This work first identifies the software techniques and tools required to easily write efficient code for multibody models to be simulated on ARM-based embedded systems. Automatic Programming and Source Code Translation are the two techniques that were chosen to generate source code for multibody models in different programming languages. Automatic Programming is used to generate procedural code in an intermediate representation from an object-oriented library and Source Code Translation is used to translate the intermediate representation automatically to an interpreted language or to a compiled language for efficiency purposes. An implementation of these techniques is proposed. It is based on a Python template engine and AST tree walkers for Source Code Generation and on a model-driven translator for the Source Code Translation. The code is translated from a metalanguage to any of the following four programming languages: Python-Numpy, Matlab, C++-Armadillo, C++-Eigen. Two examples of multibody models were simulated: a four-bar linkage with multiple loops and a 3D vehicle steering system. The code for these examples has been generated and executed on two ARM-based single-board computers. Using compiled languages, both models could be simulated faster than real-time despite the low resources and performance of these embedded systems. Finally, the real-time performance of both models was evaluated when executed in hard real-time on Xenomai for both embedded systems. This work shows through measurements that Automatic Programming and Source Code Translation are valuable techniques to develop real-time multibody models to be used in embedded observers and controllers.

REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS – ASSESSMENT METHOD OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN GREEN ENERGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MAFTEI DANIEL

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This article highlights the importance of real options as a evaluation method of investment in green energy. Article consider several theoretical and practical approaches, the analysis based on real options by many authors who have theorized and used this method. Each approach provides a operationalisation through a steps series of specific evaluation. This paper highlights the different views: academics, financiers, managers and facilitates the access to an accurate evaluation decisions of projects.

Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos

2007-01-01

-adopters (UK, Sweden, and Denmark) to exercise various forms of real options such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch suppliers, and to generally expand in the Euro-area. The study furthermore shows that small, profitable and financially constrained firms...... are particularly likely to exercise such real options triggered by the introduction of the Euro. The results go beyond the immediate trade effects, which empirical studies have shown to be weak and without trade diversion as to the three non-adopters, and provide important insights about the potential long...

Valuing of research project in energy field with real options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Blasio, N.; Marzo, G.; Turatto, R.

2008-01-01

This article presents an application of real options theory for valuing a research project in the field of stranded gas valorisation. After a presentation of the theory, the analysis addresses the use of real options evaluation for generating alternative pathways in order to add new value to the R D projects. It also shows how real option approach may be important for selecting among competitive projects, but also for providing a system for valorisation of decision-maker flexibility [it

Evaluation of Cloud Computing Hidden Benefits by Using Real Options Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavel Náplava

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Cloud computing technologies have brought new attributes to the IT world. One of them is a flexibility of IT resources. It enables effectively both to downsize and upsize the capacity of IT resources in real time. Requirements for IT size change defines business strategy and actual market state. IT costs are not stable but dynamic in this case. Standard investment valuation methods (both static and dynamic are not able to include the flexibility attribute to the evaluation of IT projects. This article describes the application of the Real Options Analysis method for the valuation of the cloud computing flexibility. The method compares costs of the on-premise and cloud computing solutions by combining put and call option valuation. Cloud computing providers can use the method as an advanced tool that explains hidden benefits of cloud computing. Unexperienced cloud computing customers can simulate the market behavior and better plan necessary IT investments.

Retrospective insights from real options in R&D

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lint, L.J.O.

2000-01-01

Absent empirical validation of real option pricing in R&D, we discuss the evolution of three cases in R&D option valuation. The first case concerns an option on conversion of an existing production process. The other two cases concern R&D to develop new product technology in the consumer electronics

Influence of Transaction costs and real options on firms' own-or-rent ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Based on secondary data on 79 companies in Mekelle, Ethiopia, this paper investigates the influence of transaction cost and real option factors on firms' own or rent decision for building resources. Empirical results suggest that both transaction cost and option factors have significant influence on firms' own or rent decision.

Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pu; Dai, Jun

2017-08-01

Real estate derivatives as new financial instruments are not merely risk management tools but also provide a novel way to gain exposure to real estate assets without buying or selling the physical assets. Although real estate derivatives market has exhibited a rapid development in recent years, the valuation challenge of real estate derivatives remains a great obstacle for further development in this market. In this paper, we derive a partial differential equation contingent on a real estate index in a stochastic interest rate environment and propose a modified finite difference method that adopts the non-uniform grids to solve this problem. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of the method and indicate that constant interest rate models lead to the mispricing of options and the effects of stochastic interest rates on option prices depend on whether the term structure of interest rates is rising or falling. Finally, we have investigated and compared the different effects of stochastic interest rates on European and American option prices.

Cost-effective design of ringwall storage hybrid power plants: A real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weibel, Sebastian; Madlener, Reinhard

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Economic viability, optimal size, and siting of a hybrid ringwall hydro power plant. • Real options analysis for optimal investment timing and stochastic storage volumes. • Stochastic PV and solar power production affects optimal size of the storage device. • Monte Carlo simulation is used for wind/solar power, el. price, and investment cost. • Numerical computations for two different hybrid ringwall storage plant scenarios. - Abstract: We study the economic viability and optimal sizing and siting of a hybrid plant that combines a ringwall hydro storage system with wind and solar power plants (ringwall storage hybrid power plant, RSHPP). A real options model is introduced to analyze the economics of an onshore RSHPP, and in particular of the varying storage volume in light of the stochastic character of wind and solar power, as well as the optimal investment timing under uncertainty. In fact, many uncertainties arise in such a project. Energy production is determined by the stochastic character of wind and solar power, and affects the optimal size of the storage device. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to analyze the following sources of uncertainty: (i) wind intensity and solar irradiation; (ii) future electricity price; and (iii) investment costs. The results yield the optimal size of the storage device; the energy market on which the operator should sell the electricity generated; numerical examples for two different RSHPP scenarios; and a real options model for analyzing the opportunity to defer the project investment and thus to exploit the value of waiting

Cost-effective and low-technology options for simulation and training in neonatology.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruno, Christie J; Glass, Kristen M

2016-11-01

The purpose of this review is to explore low-cost options for simulation and training in neonatology. Numerous cost-effective options exist for simulation and training in neonatology. Lower cost options are available for teaching clinical skills and procedural training in neonatal intubation, chest tube insertion, and pericardiocentesis, among others. Cost-effective, low-cost options for simulation-based education can be developed and shared in order to optimize the neonatal simulation training experience. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multinationality as real option facilitator – Illusion or reality?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos; Park, Jung Chul

2016-01-01

Previous literature provides multiple conflicting arguments on why and when multinationality should enhance or impede the value-relevance of firms’ real options. We address this issue by examining whether the relationship between stock returns and changes in return volatility varies with multinat......Previous literature provides multiple conflicting arguments on why and when multinationality should enhance or impede the value-relevance of firms’ real options. We address this issue by examining whether the relationship between stock returns and changes in return volatility varies...... with multinationality. Our results indicate that multinationality does indeed act as a real option facilitator. Furthermore, we show that, consistent with the notion that there are limits to the operating flexibility associated with multinationality this benefit only accrues fully if the firm is not financially...

STRATEGIC EXERCISE OF REAL OPTIONS:INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Kevin ZHU; John WEYANT

2003-01-01

Viewing investment projects in new technologies as real options, this paper studies the effects of endogenous competition and asymmetric information on the strategic exercise of real options. We first develop a multi-period, game-theoretic model and show how competition leads to early exercise and aggressive investment behaviors and how competition erodes option values. We then relax the typical full-information assumption found in the literature and allow information asymmetry to exist across firms. Our model shows, in contrast to the literature that payoff is independent of the ordering of exercise, that the sequential exercise of real options may generate both informational and payoff externalities. We also find some surprising but interesting results such as having more information is not necessarily better.

Online Synchrophasor-Based Dynamic State Estimation using Real-Time Digital Simulator

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khazraj, Hesam; Adewole, Adeyemi Charles; Udaya, Annakkage

2018-01-01

Dynamic state estimation is a very important control center application used in the dynamic monitoring of state variables. This paper presents and validates a time-synchronized phasor measurement unit (PMU)-based for dynamic state estimation by unscented Kalman filter (UKF) method using the real-...... using the RTDS (real-time digital simulator). The dynamic state variables of multi-machine systems are monitored and measured for the study on the transient behavior of power systems.......Dynamic state estimation is a very important control center application used in the dynamic monitoring of state variables. This paper presents and validates a time-synchronized phasor measurement unit (PMU)-based for dynamic state estimation by unscented Kalman filter (UKF) method using the real......-time digital simulator (RTDS). The dynamic state variables of the system are the rotor angle and speed of the generators. The performance of the UKF method is tested with PMU measurements as inputs using the IEEE 14-bus test system. This test system was modeled in the RSCAD software and tested in real time...

Application of Real Options Valuation to R&D Investments in Pharmaceutical Companies

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Huan Ran

2006-01-01

This paper provides an insight into the application of real option valuation method to R&D projects in pharmaceutical companies. As one of the most important corporate finance decision-making methods, real option valuation method has been introduced in the last two decades. By applying option valuation methods, real option valuation is a useful tool to company managers. R&D investments in pharmaceutical companies are subject to considerable uncertainty, which may involve possibilities (i...

Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model. The case of Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Shun-Chung; Shih, Li-Hsing

2010-01-01

This study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy (RE) in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and RE policy-related factors. The economic intuition underlying the policy-making process is elucidated, while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in Taiwan for wind power. In addition to revealing the benefits that RE development provides when considering real options, analytical results indicate that ROA is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences RE development. In addition to assessing the policy value of current RE development policy, this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed-in tariff (FIT). Simulation results demonstrate that the RE development policy with internalized CO 2 emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view. Furthermore, relationship between varying FIT and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate FIT level could be determined accordingly. (author)

DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN NEW ZEALAND: A REAL OPTIONS PERSPECTIVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tran, Van

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Real Options (RO has been a universally accepted concept in a number of major industries. However, its use in the construction supply chain management (CSCM sector has been limited. Some rare supply chain management RO studies have shown a number of limitations. First, there is a lack of a rigorous theoretical RO framework pertaining specifically to CSCM. All such supply chain management RO studies are based off RO theories or models developed for other sectors (engineering, infrastructure, natural resources. And second, attempts to extend real option to wider uses in CSCM seem premature at the present. This paper reviews all recent literature pertaining to real options and real options applied specifically to the construction supply chain management area. The study proposes a research programme pertaining to CSCM in New Zealand in order to enhance the current understanding of RO in this area and in the process develop a comprehensive theory for the RO application in New Zealand CSCM.

FPGA-based real-time simulation of power converters of renewable energy sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kokenyesi, Tamas; Varjasi, Istvan [Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Department of Automation and Applied Informatics (Hungary)], e-mail: kokenyesi.tamas@gmail.com, email: varjasi@aut.bme.hu

2011-07-01

This paper presents a hardware-in-the-loop testing (HIL) approach based on a field programmable gate array (FPGA) real-time simulation with real measured signals designed to reduce the cost and time for testing the main circuit of a power converter significantly. This method allows the control unit to measure its outputs on the same signal level in a completely transparent way, unlike other computer based simulation methods. As an example, a simulator for a three-phase inverter used for DC/AC conversion or frequency control is described and the simulated network illustrated. The calculation procedure and relative equations are also detailed, with simulation parameters and some measurement results being presented. It was found that the main advantage of this method is speed, which was only limited by the actual capabilities of the FPGA used. This method can be applied to a wide variety of analog circuits, reducing time to market. More complex circuits and higher frequencies could be simulated in the future with the evolution of FPGAs.

Development of real options model for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kenji

2004-01-01

As the Japanese electricity market is deregulated, it becomes more important for electric utilities to recognize their financial risks and to adopt strategic and scientific decision making methodology. We have developed two models for valuation of Japanese nuclear power plants to support utilities' decision making. One is a net present value (NPV) model using discounted cash flow analysis method. Another is a real options model. This model is based on strict financial technology theory and can calculate value of early retirement, life extension and new unit addition options of nuclear units under electricity price uncertainty. This can also derive an optimal period for retirement, life extension and new unit addition. (author)

Applications of Real Options in the Real Estate Market Focusing the City of Rio de Janeiro

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Priscilla Yung Medeiros

2003-06-01

Full Text Available An investment opportunity in the real state market can be compared with an option and, because of this analogy, we can make use of the real options theory to determinate not only the best timing to begin a new property development, but also to determine the optimal density to develop in a specific property. To investigate these two main decisions, we are going to base our research on the model developed by Williams (1991 and extend it in a way to include taxes and a discount in the net cash inflow caused by the times spent in the construction process. An empirical analysis of the of the residential real estate market in the city of Rio de Janeiro is going to be developed in a way to verify the compatibility of the theoretical model developed here according to the reality of this market. We found that the extensions proposed to the basic model of Williams (1991 had significant effects in the theoretical model. We could also confirm empirically that the theoretical results are compatible to the reality of this market.

Interactive real-time nuclear plant simulations on a UNIX based supercomputer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behling, S.R.

1990-01-01

Interactive real-time nuclear plant simulations are critically important to train nuclear power plant engineers and operators. In addition, real-time simulations can be used to test the validity and timing of plant technical specifications and operational procedures. To accurately and confidently simulate a nuclear power plant transient in real-time, sufficient computer resources must be available. Since some important transients cannot be simulated using preprogrammed responses or non-physical models, commonly used simulation techniques may not be adequate. However, the power of a supercomputer allows one to accurately calculate the behavior of nuclear power plants even during very complex transients. Many of these transients can be calculated in real-time or quicker on the fastest supercomputers. The concept of running interactive real-time nuclear power plant transients on a supercomputer has been tested. This paper describes the architecture of the simulation program, the techniques used to establish real-time synchronization, and other issues related to the use of supercomputers in a new and potentially very important area. (author)

Fuzzy-based simulation of real color blindness.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jinmi; dos Santos, Wellington P

2010-01-01

About 8% of men are affected by color blindness. That population is at a disadvantage since they cannot perceive a substantial amount of the visual information. This work presents two computational tools developed to assist color blind people. The first one tests color blindness and assess its severity. The second tool is based on Fuzzy Logic, and implements a method proposed to simulate real red and green color blindness in order to generate synthetic cases of color vision disturbance in a statistically significant amount. Our purpose is to develop correction tools and obtain a deeper understanding of the accessibility problems faced by people with chromatic visual impairment.

A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying

2011-01-01

Highlights: → This paper establishes a carbon captures and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model. → The model is based on real options theory and solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. → China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment. → The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. -- Abstract: This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO 2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making.

The value of product flexibility in nuclear hydrogen technologies: A real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botterud, Audun; Yildiz, Bilge; Conzelmann, Guenter; Petri, Mark C.

2009-01-01

Previous economic studies of nuclear hydrogen technologies focused on levelized costs without accounting for risks and uncertainties faced by potential investors. To address some of these risks and uncertainties, we used real options theory to assess the profitability of three nuclear hydrogen production technologies in evolving electricity and hydrogen markets. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to represent the uncertainty in hydrogen and electricity prices. The model computes both the expected value and the distribution of discounted profits from the production plant. It also quantifies the value of the option to switch between hydrogen and electricity production. Under these assumptions, we conclude that investors will find significant value in the capability to switch plant output between electricity and hydrogen. (author)

The RealGas and RealGasH2O options of the TOUGH+ code for the simulation of coupled fluid and heat flow in tight/shale gas systems

Science.gov (United States)

We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas. The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and sh...

A real option analysis of investments in hydropower-The case of Norway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kjaerland, Frode

2007-01-01

This paper presents a valuation study of hydropower investment opportunities in the Norwegian context. According to NVE (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, the regulator), there is a potential of 39 TWh not yet developed (generation in a normal year is approximately 120 TWh). By using the conceptual real option framework of Dixit and Pindyck [1994. Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ] one can estimate the value of investment opportunities to NOK 11 million/GWh (EUR 1.4 million/GWh). Furthermore, the optimal trigger price for initiating an investment based on electricity forward prices is calculated to NOK 0.32/kWh (EUR 0.04/kWh). The analysis shows consistency between real option theory and aggregate investment behaviour in Norwegian hydropower

The Implications of Real Options on ERP-Enabled Adoption

Science.gov (United States)

Nwankpa, Joseph K.

2012-01-01

Current research on Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems and real options focuses on valuation and justification issues that manager's face prior to project approval with existing literature attempting to demonstrate that ERP systems as technology positioning investments have option-like characteristics thus making such ERP systems…

Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A.

2008-01-01

The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

Real-Time Human in the Loop MBS Simulation in the Fraunhofer Robot-Based Driving Simulator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kleer Michael

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The paper encompasses the overview of hardware architecture and the systems characteristics of the Fraunhofer driving simulator. First, the requirements of the real-time model and the real-time calculation hardware are defined and discussed in detail. Aspects like transport delay and the parallel computation of complex real-time models are presented. In addition, the interfacing of the models with the simulator system is shown. Two simulator driving tests, including a fully interactive rough terrain driving with a wheeled excavator and a test drive with a passenger car, are set to demonstrate system characteristics. Furthermore, the simulator characteristics of practical significance, such as simulator response time delay, simulator acceleration signal bandwidth obtained from artificial excitation and from the simulator driving test, will be presented and discussed.

Acquisitions and Real Options : The Greenfield Alternative

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouthers, Keith D.; Dikova, Desislava

P>Although acquisitions are a popular way to enter new markets, empirical evidence tends to indicate few benefits accrue to acquiring firms. This might be the case because firms use acquisitions when they should be employing an alternative mode of expansion. Applying real options theory to this

Real-time simulation of large-scale floods

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Q.; Qin, Y.; Li, G. D.; Liu, Z.; Cheng, D. J.; Zhao, Y. H.

2016-08-01

According to the complex real-time water situation, the real-time simulation of large-scale floods is very important for flood prevention practice. Model robustness and running efficiency are two critical factors in successful real-time flood simulation. This paper proposed a robust, two-dimensional, shallow water model based on the unstructured Godunov- type finite volume method. A robust wet/dry front method is used to enhance the numerical stability. An adaptive method is proposed to improve the running efficiency. The proposed model is used for large-scale flood simulation on real topography. Results compared to those of MIKE21 show the strong performance of the proposed model.

Real-time cavity simulator-based low-level radio-frequency test bench and applications for accelerators

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Feng; Michizono, Shinichiro; Miura, Takako; Matsumoto, Toshihiro; Liu, Na; Wibowo, Sigit Basuki

2018-03-01

A Low-level radio-frequency (LLRF) control systems is required to regulate the rf field in the rf cavity used for beam acceleration. As the LLRF system is usually complex, testing of the basic functions or control algorithms of this system in real time and in advance of beam commissioning is strongly recommended. However, the equipment necessary to test the LLRF system, such as superconducting cavities and high-power rf sources, is very expensive; therefore, we have developed a field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based cavity simulator as a substitute for real rf cavities. Digital models of the cavity and other rf systems are implemented in the FPGA. The main components include cavity baseband models for the fundamental and parasitic modes, a mechanical model of the Lorentz force detuning, and a model of the beam current. Furthermore, in our simulator, the disturbance model used to simulate the power-supply ripples and microphonics is also carefully considered. Based on the presented cavity simulator, we have established an LLRF system test bench that can be applied to different cavity operational conditions. The simulator performance has been verified by comparison with real cavities in KEK accelerators. In this paper, the development and implementation of this cavity simulator is presented first, and the LLRF test bench based on the presented simulator is constructed. The results are then compared with those for KEK accelerators. Finally, several LLRF applications of the cavity simulator are illustrated.

Real-time cavity simulator-based low-level radio-frequency test bench and applications for accelerators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feng Qiu

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A Low-level radio-frequency (LLRF control systems is required to regulate the rf field in the rf cavity used for beam acceleration. As the LLRF system is usually complex, testing of the basic functions or control algorithms of this system in real time and in advance of beam commissioning is strongly recommended. However, the equipment necessary to test the LLRF system, such as superconducting cavities and high-power rf sources, is very expensive; therefore, we have developed a field-programmable gate array (FPGA-based cavity simulator as a substitute for real rf cavities. Digital models of the cavity and other rf systems are implemented in the FPGA. The main components include cavity baseband models for the fundamental and parasitic modes, a mechanical model of the Lorentz force detuning, and a model of the beam current. Furthermore, in our simulator, the disturbance model used to simulate the power-supply ripples and microphonics is also carefully considered. Based on the presented cavity simulator, we have established an LLRF system test bench that can be applied to different cavity operational conditions. The simulator performance has been verified by comparison with real cavities in KEK accelerators. In this paper, the development and implementation of this cavity simulator is presented first, and the LLRF test bench based on the presented simulator is constructed. The results are then compared with those for KEK accelerators. Finally, several LLRF applications of the cavity simulator are illustrated.

Corporate investment under uncertainty and competition : A real options approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pawlina, G.

2003-01-01

Corporate investment opportunities can be represented as a set of (real) options to acquire productive assets. Identification of the optimal exercise strategies for these options plays a crucial role in improving the quality of capital budgeting decisions and, as a consequence, in maximizing

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom

2001-01-01

Real options like the ability to reallocate production resources can lead to an asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using a stock market approach in which the exchange rate exposure is derived from the information content in the stock prices this study examines the extra-market exchange rate...... exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...... exchange rate exposures are identified successfully but the asymmetries can only to a limited extent be explained by the existence of real options. Financial options and pricing to market are competing explanations. Omitted variable bias further blurs the picture. These problems and the concept of path...

A real option-based model to valuate CDM projects under uncertain energy policies for emission trading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Taeil; Kim, Changyoon; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A real option-based model for the valuation of CDM projects is proposed. • This study investigates the impact of energy policies on the value of CDM projects. • Level of target emission and its schedule should be carefully designed. • Government subsidy facilitates the implementation of CDM projects. • Period for free emission allowance prevents promoting CDM projects. - Abstract: Emission trading has been considered a primary policy tool for emission reduction. Governments establish national targets for emission reduction and assign emission reduction goals to private entities to accomplish the targets. To attain the goal, private entities should perform offset projects that can produce emission credits or buy emission credits from the market. However, it is not easy for private entities to decide to implement the projects because energy policies associated with emission trading keep changing; thus, the future benefits of the offset projects are quite uncertain. This study presents a real option-based model to investigate how uncertain energy policies affect the financial viability of an offset project. A case study showed that the establishment of a target emission was attractive to the government because it could make the CDM project financially viable with a small amount of government subsidy. In addition, the level of the government subsidy could determine the investment timing for the CDM project. In this context, governments should be cautious in designing energy policies, because even the same energy policies could have different impacts on private entities. Overall, this study is expected to assist private entities in establishing proper investment strategies for CDM projects under uncertain energy policies

Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

KUSDHIANTO SETIAWAN

Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of construction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for application of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the disaster-prone country.

Digital video timing analyzer for the evaluation of PC-based real-time simulation systems

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Shawn R.; Crosby, Jay L.; Terry, John E., Jr.

2009-05-01

Due to the rapid acceleration in technology and the drop in costs, the use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) PC-based hardware and software components for digital and hardware-in-the-loop (HWIL) simulations has increased. However, the increase in PC-based components creates new challenges for HWIL test facilities such as cost-effective hardware and software selection, system configuration and integration, performance testing, and simulation verification/validation. This paper will discuss how the Digital Video Timing Analyzer (DiViTA) installed in the Aviation and Missile Research, Development and Engineering Center (AMRDEC) provides quantitative characterization data for PC-based real-time scene generation systems. An overview of the DiViTA is provided followed by details on measurement techniques, applications, and real-world examples of system benefits.

Real options approach to inter-sectoral migration of U.S.farm labor

Science.gov (United States)

Gulcan Onel; Barry K. Goodwin

2014-01-01

The core of the literature on inter-sectoral labor migration is based on net present value models of investment in which individuals are assumed to migrate to take advantage of positive wage differentials. In this article, we argue that a real options approach, taken together with the adjustment costs associated with sectoral relocation, may provide a basis for...

Event Based Simulator for Parallel Computing over the Wide Area Network for Real Time Visualization

Science.gov (United States)

Sundararajan, Elankovan; Harwood, Aaron; Kotagiri, Ramamohanarao; Satria Prabuwono, Anton

As the computational requirement of applications in computational science continues to grow tremendously, the use of computational resources distributed across the Wide Area Network (WAN) becomes advantageous. However, not all applications can be executed over the WAN due to communication overhead that can drastically slowdown the computation. In this paper, we introduce an event based simulator to investigate the performance of parallel algorithms executed over the WAN. The event based simulator known as SIMPAR (SIMulator for PARallel computation), simulates the actual computations and communications involved in parallel computation over the WAN using time stamps. Visualization of real time applications require steady stream of processed data flow for visualization purposes. Hence, SIMPAR may prove to be a valuable tool to investigate types of applications and computing resource requirements to provide uninterrupted flow of processed data for real time visualization purposes. The results obtained from the simulation show concurrence with the expected performance using the L-BSP model.

Real Option--A New Approach in the Evaluation of Telecom Investment Projects

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WU Hong

2005-01-01

This paper gives a new method into the evaluating system of telecom investment projects, I.e. Real Option. This may overcome the defects resulted from employing Net Present Value (NPV), which is now used in the evaluation of telecom projects. A theoretical analysis of Real Option is provided, followed by an example of telecom investment project to illustrate the differences between the two methods.

A Real Options Approach to Nuclear Waste Disposal in Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soederkvist, Jonas; Joensson, Kristian

2004-04-01

This report is concerned with an investigation of how the real options approach can be useful for managerial decisions regarding the phase-out of nuclear power generation in Sweden. The problem of interest is the optimal time-schedule for phase-out activities, where the optimal time-schedule is defined in purely economical terms. The approach taken is actual construction and application of three real options models, which capture different aspects of managerial decisions. The first model concerns when investments in deep disposal facilities should optimally be made. Although the model is a rough simplification of reality, the result is clear. It is economically advantageous to postpone deep disposal forever. The second model focuses on how the uncertainty of future costs relates to managerial investment decisions. Construction of this model required some creativity, as the nuclear phase-out turns out to be quite a special project. The result from the second model is that there can be a value associated with deferral of investments due to the uncertainty of future costs, but the result is less clear-cut compared to the first model. In the third model, we extend an approach suggested by Louberge, Villeneuve and Chesney. The risk of a nuclear accident is introduced through this model and we develop its application to investigate the Swedish phase-out in particular, which implies that waste continuously disposed. In the third model, focus is shifted from investment timing to implementation timing. The results from the third model are merely qualitative, as it is considered beyond the scope of this work to quantitatively determine all relevant inputs. It is concluded that the phase-out of nuclear power generation in Sweden is not just another area of application for standard real options techniques. A main reason is that although there are a lot of uncertain issues regarding the phase-out, those uncertainties do not leave a lot of room for managerial flexibility if

“Let’s Wait and See!” The Real Option to Switch as a Value Component of Customer Relationships

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Henseler, J.; Roemer, E.

2013-01-01

We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

MODERN OPTIONS FOR THE FINANCING OF THE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiriac Silviu-Cornel-Virgil

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The investments represent one of the most important elements in the national economy development strategies, as well as in all the business fields and branches. The notion of investment is extremely complex, perceived with different meanings and significates. In a general, wider meaning the investments represent a capital placement which is made with the purpose of obtaining profit bearing incomes in the future. In a narrower meaning, investments mean the totality of expenses made for obtaining capital assets which are future potential factors in the formation of incomes. Investments represent the most important factor in the development strategies of the national economy as well as in all the business fields and branches. The investment strategy represents an important element in the management of the investments and a component of the general strategy of the entity. The use of investment strategies in the management activity implies the application of scientific techniques and methods. The great number of studies carried out shows that there were no certain answers formed, very often the option for a form of financing or the other is influenced only by the “level of accessibility” of the resources available on the financial market and the financing policy of many companies is guided rather by the constraints of the financial market than a coherent company strategy In order to ensure a constant economic growth it is necessary to prepare investment projects. In practice the predominant one is the investment activity based on real investments performed for the modernising of assets, in order to ensure their physical and moral wear and tear. The analysis of real estate investments can be made using a various range of indicators, from the traditional ones to those based on the updated cash flow, using traditional analysis techniques or complex techniques used by specialists with training in the analysis of real estate investment. The

What do you do when the binomial cannot value real options? The LSM model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Alonso

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The Least-Squares Monte Carlo model (LSM model has emerged as the derivative valuation technique with the greatest impact in current practice. As with other options valuation models, the LSM algorithm was initially posited in the field of financial derivatives and its extension to the realm of real options requires considering certain questions which might hinder understanding of the algorithm and which the present paper seeks to address. The implementation of the LSM model combines Monte Carlo simulation, dynamic programming and statistical regression in a flexible procedure suitable for application to valuing nearly all types of corporate investments. The goal of this paper is to show how the LSM algorithm is applied in the context of a corporate investment, thus contributing to the understanding of the principles of its operation.

Real options methodology in public-private partnership projects valuation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakić Biljana

2014-01-01

Full Text Available PPP offers numerous benefits to both public and private partners in delivery of infrastructure projects. However this partnership also involves great risks which have to be adequately managed and mitigated. Private partners are especially sensitive to revenue risk, since they are mostly interested in the financial viability of the project. Thus they often expect public partners to provide some kind of risk-sharing mechanism in the form of Minimum Revenue Guarantees or abandonment options. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether the real option of abandoning the project increases its value. Therefore the binominal option pricing model and risk-neutral probability approach have been implemented to price the European and American abandonment options for the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT toll road investment. The obtained results suggest that the project value with the American abandonment option is greater than with the European abandonment option, hence implying that American options offer greater flexibility and are more valuable for private partners. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179066 and III 42006

A real-time computer simulation of nuclear simulator software using standard PC hardware and linux environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cha, K. H.; Kweon, K. C.

2001-01-01

A feasibility study, which standard PC hardware and Real-Time Linux are applied to real-time computer simulation of software for a nuclear simulator, is presented in this paper. The feasibility prototype was established with the existing software in the Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS). Throughout the real-time implementation in the feasibility prototype, we has identified that the approach can enable the computer-based predictive simulation to be approached, due to both the remarkable improvement in real-time performance and the less efforts for real-time implementation under standard PC hardware and Real-Time Linux envrionments

Investing in Marine Scrubber under Uncertainty with Real Option Thinking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jiang, Liping; Hansen, Carsten Ørts

works that examine the economic feasibility of scrubber retrofitting through the net present value rule, this paper applies the Real Option Analysis to find the optimal investment strategies. The proposed decision-making framework addresses the uncertainty and the value of deferral option embedded...... in the scrubber investment. The multiple sources of investment uncertainties are explicitly analyzed and integrated in the modeling by using Rainbow option. The results demonstrate that the value of the scrubber investment has significantly increased for several cases by considering the deferral option....... It is thus important for ship owners to consider the available options before proceeding with abandoning or investing strategy. The proposed framework can be widely applied to other ship retrofitting investment evaluations, which include similar investment alternatives and uncertainties....

A Cellular Automata-Based Simulation Tool for Real Fire Accident Prevention

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Jacek M. Czerniak

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Many serious real-life problems could be simulated using cellular automata theory. There were a lot of fires in public places which kill many people. Proposed method, called Cellular Automata Evaluation (CAEva in short, is using cellular automata theory and could be used for checking buildings conditions for fire accident. The tests performed on real accident showed that an appropriately configured program allows obtaining a realistic simulation of human evacuation. The authors analyze some real accidents and proved that CAEva method appears as a very promising solution, especially in the cases of building renovations or temporary unavailability of escape routes.

“Let’s Wait and See!” – The Real Option to Switch as a New Element of Customer Value

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Henseler, Jörg; Roemer, Ellen

2013-01-01

We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

Cerebral methodology based computing to estimate real phenomena from large-scale nuclear simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suzuki, Yoshio

2011-01-01

Our final goal is to estimate real phenomena from large-scale nuclear simulations by using computing processes. Large-scale simulations mean that they include scale variety and physical complexity so that corresponding experiments and/or theories do not exist. In nuclear field, it is indispensable to estimate real phenomena from simulations in order to improve the safety and security of nuclear power plants. Here, the analysis of uncertainty included in simulations is needed to reveal sensitivity of uncertainty due to randomness, to reduce the uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and to lead a degree of certainty by verification and validation (V and V) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) processes. To realize this, we propose 'Cerebral Methodology based Computing (CMC)' as computing processes with deductive and inductive approaches by referring human reasoning processes. Our idea is to execute deductive and inductive simulations contrasted with deductive and inductive approaches. We have established its prototype system and applied it to a thermal displacement analysis of a nuclear power plant. The result shows that our idea is effective to reduce the uncertainty and to get the degree of certainty. (author)

Towards Real Time Simulation of Ship-Ship Interaction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindberg, Ole; Bingham, Harry B.; Engsig-Karup, Allan Peter

2012-01-01

We present recent and preliminary work directed towards the development of a simplified, physics-based model for improved simulation of ship-ship interaction that can be used for both analysis and real-time computing (i.e. with real-time constraints due to visualization). The goal is to implement...... accurate (realistic) and much faster ship-wave and ship-ship simulations than are currently possible. The coupling of simulation with visualization should improve the visual experience such that it can be perceived as more realistic in training. Today the state-of-art in real-time ship-ship interaction...... is for efficiency reasons and time-constraints in visualization based on model experiments in towing tanks and precomputed force tables. We anticipate that the fast, and highly parallel, algorithm described by Engsig-Karup et al. [2011] for execution on affordable modern high-throughput Graphics Processing Units...

A Real Options Perspective On R&D Portfolio Diversification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

2009-01-01

textabstractThis paper shows that the conditionality of investment decisions in R&D has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and implies that traditional diversification strategies should be reevaluated when a portfolio is constructed. Real option theory argues that research projects have

Probabilistic Cash Flow-Based Optimal Investment Timing Using Two-Color Rainbow Options Valuation for Economic Sustainability Appraisement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonggu Kim

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This research determines the optimal investment timing using real options valuation to support decision-making for economic sustainability assessment. This paper illustrates an option pricing model using the Black-Scholes model applied to a case project to understand the model performance. Applicability of the project to the model requires two Monte Carlo simulations to satisfy a Markov process and a Wiener process. The position of project developers is not only the seller of products, but it is also the buyer of raw materials. Real options valuation can be influenced by the volatility of cash outflow, as well as the volatility of cash inflow. This study suggests two-color rainbow options valuation to overcome this issue, which is demonstrated for a steel plant project. The asymmetric results of the case study show that cash outflow (put option influences the value of the steel plant project more than cash inflow (call option does of which the discussion of the results is referred to a sensitivity analysis. The real options valuation method proposed in this study contributes to the literature on applying the new model, taking into consideration that investors maximize project profitability for economic sustainable development.

Innovative tools for real-time simulation of dynamic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palli, Gianluca; Carloni, Raffaella; Melchiorri, Claudio

2008-01-01

In this paper, we present a software architecture, based on RTAI-Linux, for the real-time simulation of dynamic systems and for the rapid prototyping of digital controllers. Our aim is to simplify the testing phase of digital controllers by providing the real-time simulation of the plant with the

Combination of real options and game-theoretic approach in investment analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Arasteh, Abdollah

2016-09-01

Investments in technology create a large amount of capital investments by major companies. Assessing such investment projects is identified as critical to the efficient assignment of resources. Viewing investment projects as real options, this paper expands a method for assessing technology investment decisions in the linkage existence of uncertainty and competition. It combines the game-theoretic models of strategic market interactions with a real options approach. Several key characteristics underlie the model. First, our study shows how investment strategies rely on competitive interactions. Under the force of competition, firms hurry to exercise their options early. The resulting "hurry equilibrium" destroys the option value of waiting and involves violent investment behavior. Second, we get best investment policies and critical investment entrances. This suggests that integrating will be unavoidable in some information product markets. The model creates some new intuitions into the forces that shape market behavior as noticed in the information technology industry. It can be used to specify best investment policies for technology innovations and adoptions, multistage R&D, and investment projects in information technology.

Monte Carlo Simulation of an American Option

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gikiri Thuo

2007-04-01

Full Text Available We implement gradient estimation techniques for sensitivity analysis of option pricing which can be efficiently employed in Monte Carlo simulation. Using these techniques we can simultaneously obtain an estimate of the option value together with the estimates of sensitivities of the option value to various parameters of the model. After deriving the gradient estimates we incorporate them in an iterative stochastic approximation algorithm for pricing an option with early exercise features. We illustrate the procedure using an example of an American call option with a single dividend that is analytically tractable. In particular we incorporate estimates for the gradient with respect to the early exercise threshold level.

Real-Time Incompressible Fluid Simulation on the GPU

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao Nie

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We present a parallel framework for simulating incompressible fluids with predictive-corrective incompressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics (PCISPH on the GPU in real time. To this end, we propose an efficient GPU streaming pipeline to map the entire computational task onto the GPU, fully exploiting the massive computational power of state-of-the-art GPUs. In PCISPH-based simulations, neighbor search is the major performance obstacle because this process is performed several times at each time step. To eliminate this bottleneck, an efficient parallel sorting method for this time-consuming step is introduced. Moreover, we discuss several optimization techniques including using fast on-chip shared memory to avoid global memory bandwidth limitations and thus further improve performance on modern GPU hardware. With our framework, the realism of real-time fluid simulation is significantly improved since our method enforces incompressibility constraint which is typically ignored due to efficiency reason in previous GPU-based SPH methods. The performance results illustrate that our approach can efficiently simulate realistic incompressible fluid in real time and results in a speed-up factor of up to 23 on a high-end NVIDIA GPU in comparison to single-threaded CPU-based implementation.

Costing the EPR Project Using the Real Options Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Epaulard, Anne; Gallon, Stephane

2001-01-01

Real options theory makes it possible to cost investments which offer flexibility but whose returns are uncertain, such as the construction in 2000 of an EPR prototype; this prototype will enable the European pressurised-water reactor (EPR) to be used to renew EDF's nuclear power stations in 2020 (flexibility) but its economic worth will then depend on the cost of the competing gas-fired power plants (uncertain return). Options theory shows that investing in EPR technology in 2000 provides sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered cost-effective, even though use of EPRs is unlikely by that date. The investment made in 2000 to develop EPR technology therefore actually plays the part of an option or, in other words, insurance (against the risk of high gas prices)

VERSE - Virtual Equivalent Real-time Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yang; Martin, Bryan J.; Villaume, Nathaniel

2005-01-01

Distributed real-time simulations provide important timing validation and hardware in the- loop results for the spacecraft flight software development cycle. Occasionally, the need for higher fidelity modeling and more comprehensive debugging capabilities - combined with a limited amount of computational resources - calls for a non real-time simulation environment that mimics the real-time environment. By creating a non real-time environment that accommodates simulations and flight software designed for a multi-CPU real-time system, we can save development time, cut mission costs, and reduce the likelihood of errors. This paper presents such a solution: Virtual Equivalent Real-time Simulation Environment (VERSE). VERSE turns the real-time operating system RTAI (Real-time Application Interface) into an event driven simulator that runs in virtual real time. Designed to keep the original RTAI architecture as intact as possible, and therefore inheriting RTAI's many capabilities, VERSE was implemented with remarkably little change to the RTAI source code. This small footprint together with use of the same API allows users to easily run the same application in both real-time and virtual time environments. VERSE has been used to build a workstation testbed for NASA's Space Interferometry Mission (SIM PlanetQuest) instrument flight software. With its flexible simulation controls and inexpensive setup and replication costs, VERSE will become an invaluable tool in future mission development.

RANA, a real-time multi-agent system simulator

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Søren Vissing; Demazeau, Yves; Hallam, John

2016-01-01

for individualisation and abstraction while retaining efficiency. Events are managed by the C++ simulator core. Full run state can be recorded for post-processed visualisation or analysis. The new tool is demonstrated in three different cases: a mining robot simulation, which is purely action based; an agent......-based setup that is verifies the high precision exhibited by RANAs simulation core; and a state-based firefly-like agent simulation that models real-time responses to fellow agents' signals, in which event propagation and reception affect the result of the simulation....

CUDA-based real time surgery simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Youquan; De, Suvranu

2008-01-01

In this paper we present a general software platform that enables real time surgery simulation on the newly available compute unified device architecture (CUDA)from NVIDIA. CUDA-enabled GPUs harness the power of 128 processors which allow data parallel computations. Compared to the previous GPGPU, it is significantly more flexible with a C language interface. We report implementation of both collision detection and consequent deformation computation algorithms. Our test results indicate that the CUDA enables a twenty times speedup for collision detection and about fifteen times speedup for deformation computation on an Intel Core 2 Quad 2.66 GHz machine with GeForce 8800 GTX.

Real time simulator for material testing reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Takemoto, Noriyuki; Imaizumi, Tomomi; Izumo, Hironobu; Hori, Naohiko; Suzuki, Masahide [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Oarai Research and Development Center, Oarai, Ibaraki (Japan); Ishitsuka, Tatsuo; Tamura, Kazuo [ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

2012-03-15

Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is now developing a real time simulator for a material testing reactor based on Japan Materials Testing Reactor (JMTR). The simulator treats reactor core system, primary and secondary cooling system, electricity system and irradiation facility systems. Possible simulations are normal reactor operation, unusual transient operation and accidental operation. The developed simulator also contains tool to revise/add facility in it for the future development. (author)

Real time simulator for material testing reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takemoto, Noriyuki; Imaizumi, Tomomi; Izumo, Hironobu; Hori, Naohiko; Suzuki, Masahide; Ishitsuka, Tatsuo; Tamura, Kazuo

2012-01-01

Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is now developing a real time simulator for a material testing reactor based on Japan Materials Testing Reactor (JMTR). The simulator treats reactor core system, primary and secondary cooling system, electricity system and irradiation facility systems. Possible simulations are normal reactor operation, unusual transient operation and accidental operation. The developed simulator also contains tool to revise/add facility in it for the future development. (author)

Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jain, Shashi; Roelofs, Ferry; Oosterlee, Cornelis W.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs

Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jain, Shashi, E-mail: s.jain@cwi.nl [TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands); Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Roelofs, Ferry, E-mail: roelofs@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Oosterlee, Cornelis W., E-mail: c.w.oosterlee@cwi.nl [CWI – Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica, Amsterdam (Netherlands); TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands)

2013-12-15

Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs.

SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Locatelli, Giorgio [University of Lincoln - School of Engineering, Lincoln (United Kingdom). Faculty of Science; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni [Politecnico di Milano (Italy). Dept. of Management Economics and Industrial Engineering

2014-03-15

The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locatelli, Giorgio; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni

2014-01-01

The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

A real options approach to biotechnology investment policy-the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry.

Science.gov (United States)

Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

2016-06-01

The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine development in a cost-effective way. The development of a vaccine against Campylobacter jejuni in poultry is applied as a case study. Employing the real options methodology, the net present value of the vaccine R&D project becomes larger than a purely probabilistic expected present value throughout the different stages of the project - and the net present value becomes larger, when more types of real options are taken into consideration. The insight from the real options analysis reveals opportunities for new policies to promote the development of animal vaccines. One such approach might be to develop schemes combining stage-by-stage optimized subsidies in the individual development stages, with proper account taken of investors'/developers' economic incentives to proceed, sell or cancel the project in the respective stages. Another way of using the real options approach to support the development of desirable animal vaccines could be to issue put options for the vaccine candidate, enabling vaccine developers to hedge against the economic risk from market volatility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dezhi Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper uses a real options approach to address optimal timing and size of a logistics park investment with logistics demand volatility. Two important problems are examined: when should an investment be introduced, and what size should it be? A real option model is proposed to explicitly incorporate the effect of government subsidies on logistics park investment. Logistic demand that triggers the threshold for investment in a logistics park project is explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of logistics park investment are also carried out. Our analytical results show that (1 investors will select smaller sized logistics parks and prepone the investment if government subsidies are considered; (2 the real option will postpone the optimal investment timing of logistics parks compared with net present value approach; and (3 logistic demands can significantly affect the optimal investment size and timing of logistics park investment.

In or Out: The Effect of Euro Membership on the Exercise of Real Business Options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos

2011-01-01

This empirical study of manufacturing firms (NAICS 33) in the EU15 countries goes beyond the trade statistics that have indicated only a small to negligible effect from the introduction of the Euro and shows that the introduction of the Euro has made Euro firms (firms based in one of the twelve...... Euro countries) more inclined than non-Euro firms (firms based in one of the three non-Euro countries: UK, Sweden and Denmark) to undertake various forms of real actions (exercise real business options) such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch...

Designing regulatory frameworks for merchant transmission investments by real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

2014-01-01

In deregulated electricity markets, the transmission network is a key infrastructure for enabling competition in the generation sector. A deficient expansion of the transmission grid prevents the realization of the benefits in terms of efficiency associated with market mechanisms. Consequently, it is essential to provide clear investment policies and economic signals to attract timely and efficient transmission investments in order to develop the system at minimum cost meeting the requirements of generators and consumers, while keeping adequate levels of service quality and reliability. This paper proposes a modern tool of economic evaluation based on real options analysis that provides the regulator the ability to assess various incentives that would lead transmission investors to make efficient decisions in highly uncertain environments. Real options properly values partially irreversible investment decisions, such as to defer, modify or abandon an investment project in response to the arrival of new information or as uncertainties are resolved. Decisions are evaluated from the point of view of a transmission investor trying to maximize its own profits in the time period set to recover the capital invested. The results allow the study of the behavior of transmission investors regarding their decision making when they have the possibility to manage the option to defer, under different regulatory schemes that encourage the expansion of the transmission system. - Highlights: • Regulatory frameworks for efficient and timely transmission expansions are designed. • Irreversibility and uncertainty of transmission investment is properly accounted for. • Response of network investors to regulatory incentives is quantitatively established

New perspective of real options theory for policy analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sadowski, B.M.

2007-01-01

In deze Reflectie geeft Sadowski een alternatief, of eigenlijk een aanvulling op de KBA, vanuit de real options theory, zoals die ook in de financiële sector gebruikt wordt. Het idee is dat er in dynamische markten veel ontwikkelingen zijn: technologisch, een markt in beweging of industriële

Simulating Real-Time Aspects of Wireless Sensor Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Nastasi

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs technology has been mainly used in the applications with low-frequency sampling and little computational complexity. Recently, new classes of WSN-based applications with different characteristics are being considered, including process control, industrial automation and visual surveillance. Such new applications usually involve relatively heavy computations and also present real-time requirements as bounded end-to- end delay and guaranteed Quality of Service. It becomes then necessary to employ proper resource management policies, not only for communication resources but also jointly for computing resources, in the design and development of such WSN-based applications. In this context, simulation can play a critical role, together with analytical models, for validating a system design against the parameters of Quality of Service demanded for. In this paper, we present RTNS, a publicly available free simulation tool which includes Operating System aspects in wireless distributed applications. RTNS extends the well-known NS-2 simulator with models of the CPU, the Real-Time Operating System and the application tasks, to take into account delays due to the computation in addition to the communication. We demonstrate the benefits of RTNS by presenting our simulation study for a complex WSN-based multi-view vision system for real-time event detection.

Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants; Identificacion de las opciones reales en un programa de plantas nucleoelectricas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532, Jiutepec, Morelos 62550 (Mexico)]. e-mail: danielkmacho@yahoo.com.mx

2008-07-01

The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

Real-time simulation of ex-core nuclear instrumentation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Qiang; Zhang Zhijian; Cao Xinrong

2005-01-01

Real-time simulation of ex-core nuclear instrumentation system is an indispensable part of nuclear power plant (NPP) full-scope training simulator. The simulation method, which is based upon the theory of measurement, is introduced in the paper. The fitting formula between the measured data and the three-dimensional neutron flux distribution in the core is established. The fitting parameter is adjusted according to the reactor physical calculation or the experiment of power calibration. The simulation result shows that the method can simulate the ex-core neutron instrumentation system accurately in real-time and meets the needs of NPP full-scope training simulator. (authors)

Evaluation of Foreign Investment in Power Plants using Real Options

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

This paper proposes new methods for evaluating foreign investment in power plants under market uncertainty using a real options approach. We suppose a thermal power plant project in a deregulated electricity market. One of our proposed methods is that we calculate the cash flow generated by the project in a reference year using actual market data to incorporate periodic characteristics of energy prices into a yearly cash flow model. We make the stochastic yearly cash flow model with the initial value which is the cash flow in the reference year, and certain trend and volatility. Then we calculate the real options value (ROV) of the project which has abandonment options using the yearly cash flow model. Another our proposed method is that we evaluate foreign currency/domestic currency exchange rate risk by representing ROV in foreign currency as yearly pay off and exchanging it to ROV in domestic currency using a stochastic exchange rate model. We analyze the effect of the heat rate and operation and maintenance costs of the power plant on ROV, and evaluate exchange rate risk through numerical examples. Our proposed method will be useful for the risk management of foreign investment in power plants.

Applying Real Options for Evaluating Investments in ERP Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Nakagane, Jun; Sekozawa, Teruji

This paper intends to verify effectiveness of real options approach for evaluating investments in Enterprise Resource Planning systems (ERP) and proves how important it is to disclose shadow options potentially embedded in ERP investment. The net present value (NPV) method is principally adopted to evaluate the value of ERP. However, the NPV method assumes no uncertainties exist in the object. It doesn't satisfy the current business circumstances which are filled with dynamic issues. Since the 1990s the effectiveness of option pricing models for Information System (IS) investment to solve issues in the NPV method has been discussed in the IS literature. This paper presents 3 business cases to review the practical advantages of such techniques for IS investments, especially ERP investments. The first case is EDI development. We evaluate the project by a new approach with lighting one of shadow options, EDI implementation. In the second case we reveal an ERP investment has an “expanding option” in a case of eliminating redundancy. The third case describes an option to contract which is deliberately slotted in ERP development to prepare transferring a manufacturing facility.

Capacity choice in (strategic) real options models : A survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huberts, Nick; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter; Lavrutich, Maria

2015-01-01

The theory of real options determines the optimal time to invest in a project of given size. As a main result, it is found that in a more uncertain environment, it is optimal for a firm to delay its investment. In other words, uncertainty generates a “value of waiting.” Recently, contributions

Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation II: Real-time Online earthquake Simulation (ROS) of Taiwan earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liu, Qinya; Tromp, Jeroen; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Huang, Bor-Shouh

2014-06-01

We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 min after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). A new island-wide, high resolution SEM mesh model is developed for the whole Taiwan in this study. We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 min for a 70 s ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

[Dynamic road vehicle emission inventory simulation study based on real time traffic information].

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Cheng; Liu, Juan; Chen, Chang-Hong; Zhang, Jian; Liu, Deng-Guo; Zhu, Jing-Yu; Huang, Wei-Ming; Chao, Yuan

2012-11-01

The vehicle activity survey, including traffic flow distribution, driving condition, and vehicle technologies, were conducted in Shanghai. The databases of vehicle flow, VSP distribution and vehicle categories were established according to the surveyed data. Based on this, a dynamic vehicle emission inventory simulation method was designed by using the real time traffic information data, such as traffic flow and average speed. Some roads in Shanghai city were selected to conduct the hourly vehicle emission simulation as a case study. The survey results show that light duty passenger car and taxi are major vehicles on the roads of Shanghai city, accounting for 48% - 72% and 15% - 43% of the total flow in each hour, respectively. VSP distribution has a good relationship with the average speed. The peak of VSP distribution tends to move to high load section and become lower with the increase of average speed. Vehicles achieved Euro 2 and Euro 3 standards are majorities of current vehicle population in Shanghai. Based on the calibration of vehicle travel mileage data, the proportions of Euro 2 and Euro 3 standard vehicles take up 11% - 70% and 17% - 51% in the real-world situation, respectively. The emission simulation results indicate that the ratios of emission peak and valley for the pollutants of CO, VOC, NO(x) and PM are 3.7, 4.6, 9.6 and 19.8, respectively. CO and VOC emissions mainly come from light-duty passenger car and taxi, which has a good relationship with the traffic flow. NO(x) and PM emissions are mainly from heavy-duty bus and public buses and mainly concentrate in the morning and evening peak hours. The established dynamic vehicle emission simulation method can reflect the change of actual road emission and output high emission road sectors and hours in real time. The method can provide an important technical means and decision-making basis for transportation environment management.

Integrating viscoelastic mass spring dampers into position-based dynamics to simulate soft tissue deformation in real time.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Lang; Lu, Yuhua; Liu, Qian

2018-02-01

We propose a novel method to simulate soft tissue deformation for virtual surgery applications. The method considers the mechanical properties of soft tissue, such as its viscoelasticity, nonlinearity and incompressibility; its speed, stability and accuracy also meet the requirements for a surgery simulator. Modifying the traditional equation for mass spring dampers (MSD) introduces nonlinearity and viscoelasticity into the calculation of elastic force. Then, the elastic force is used in the constraint projection step for naturally reducing constraint potential. The node position is enforced by the combined spring force and constraint conservative force through Newton's second law. We conduct a comparison study of conventional MSD and position-based dynamics for our new integrating method. Our approach enables stable, fast and large step simulation by freely controlling visual effects based on nonlinearity, viscoelasticity and incompressibility. We implement a laparoscopic cholecystectomy simulator to demonstrate the practicality of our method, in which liver and gallbladder deformation can be simulated in real time. Our method is an appropriate choice for the development of real-time virtual surgery applications.

Real-time image-based B-mode ultrasound image simulation of needles using tensor-product interpolation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Mengchen; Salcudean, Septimiu E

2011-07-01

In this paper, we propose an interpolation-based method for simulating rigid needles in B-mode ultrasound images in real time. We parameterize the needle B-mode image as a function of needle position and orientation. We collect needle images under various spatial configurations in a water-tank using a needle guidance robot. Then we use multidimensional tensor-product interpolation to simulate images of needles with arbitrary poses and positions using collected images. After further processing, the interpolated needle and seed images are superimposed on top of phantom or tissue image backgrounds. The similarity between the simulated and the real images is measured using a correlation metric. A comparison is also performed with in vivo images obtained during prostate brachytherapy. Our results, carried out for both the convex (transverse plane) and linear (sagittal/para-sagittal plane) arrays of a trans-rectal transducer indicate that our interpolation method produces good results while requiring modest computing resources. The needle simulation method we present can be extended to the simulation of ultrasound images of other wire-like objects. In particular, we have shown that the proposed approach can be used to simulate brachytherapy seeds.

Comparison of HRA methods based on WWER-1000 NPP real and simulated accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petkov, Gueorgui

2010-01-01

Full text: Adequate treatment of human interactions in probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) studies is a key to the understanding of accident sequences and their relative importance in overall risk. Human interactions with machines have long been recognized as important contributors to the safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPP). Human interactions affect the ordering of dominant accident sequences and hence have a significant effect on the risk of NPP. By virtue of the ability to combine the treatment of both human and hardware reliability in real accidents, NPP fullscope, multifunctional and computer-based simulators provide a unique way of developing an understanding of the importance of specific human actions for overall plant safety. Context dependent human reliability assessment (HRA) models, such as the holistic decision tree (HDT) and performance evaluation of teamwork (PET) methods, are the so-called second generation HRA techniques. The HDT model has been used for a number of PSA studies. The PET method reflects promising prospects for dealing with dynamic aspects of human performance. The paper presents a comparison of the two HRA techniques for calculation of post-accident human error probability in the PSA. The real and simulated event training scenario 'turbine's stop after loss of feedwater' based on standard PSA model assumptions is designed for WWER-1000 computer simulator and their detailed boundary conditions are described and analyzed. The error probability of post-accident individual actions will be calculated by means of each investigated technique based on student's computer simulator training archives

Real Silver and Its Investment and Business Options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Novotný Josef

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The article deals with investment and business opportunities offered by silver. Silver is the metal used in industry and for investing at financial markets. The main problem related to this real commodity is the issue of “the undervaluation” of its investment options, if compared to gold. If considering silver as the investment option, its investment potential is significantly enhanced by its industrial usage. The aim of this paper is to highlight business and investment opportunities for both professionals and non professional investors at the commodity markets. The price growth of this investment and industrial metal can generate profits for the investors. And on the other hand, industries which cannot do without silver in their production may efficiently utilize the knowledge of setting up its price at the markets.

Real Option in Capital Budgeting for SMEs: Insight from Steel Company

Science.gov (United States)

Muharam, F. M.; Tarrazon, M. A.

2017-06-01

Complex components of investment projects can only be analysed accurately if flexibility and comprehensive consideration of uncertainty are incorporated into valuation. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis has failed to cope with strategic future alternatives that affect the right value of investment projects. Real option valuation (ROV) proves to be the right tool for this purpose since it enables to calculate the enlarged or strategic Net Present Value (ENPV). This study attempts to provide an insight of the usage of ROV in capital budgeting and investment decision-making processes of SMEs. Exploring into the first stage processing of steel industry, analysis of alternatives to cancel, to expand, to defer or to abandon is performed. Completed with multiple options interaction and a sensitivity analysis, our findings prove that the application of ROV is beneficial for complex investment projects independently from the size of the company and particularly suitable in scenarios with scarce resources. The application of Real Option Valuation (ROV) is plausible and beneficial for SMEs to be incorporated in the strategic decision making process.

How Do Real Options Concepts Fit in Agile Requirements Engineering?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Racheva, Z.; Daneva, Maia

Agile requirements engineering is driven by creating business value for the client and heavily involves the client in decision-making under uncertainty. Real option thinking seems to be suitable in supporting the client’s decision making process at inter-iteration time. This paper investigates the

Real-time inextensible surgical thread simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Lang; Liu, Qian

2018-03-27

This paper discusses a real-time simulation method of inextensible surgical thread based on the Cosserat rod theory using position-based dynamics (PBD). The method realizes stable twining and knotting of surgical thread while including inextensibility, bending, twisting and coupling effects. The Cosserat rod theory is used to model the nonlinear elastic behavior of surgical thread. The surgical thread model is solved with PBD to achieve a real-time, extremely stable simulation. Due to the one-dimensional linear structure of surgical thread, the direct solution of the distance constraint based on tridiagonal matrix algorithm is used to enhance stretching resistance in every constraint projection iteration. In addition, continuous collision detection and collision response guarantee a large time step and high performance. Furthermore, friction is integrated into the constraint projection process to stabilize the twining of multiple threads and complex contact situations. Through comparisons with existing methods, the surgical thread maintains constant length under large deformation after applying the direct distance constraint in our method. The twining and knotting of multiple threads correspond to stable solutions to contact and friction forces. A surgical suture scene is also modeled to demonstrate the practicality and simplicity of our method. Our method achieves stable and fast simulation of inextensible surgical thread. Benefiting from the unified particle framework, the rigid body, elastic rod, and soft body can be simultaneously simulated. The method is appropriate for applications in virtual surgery that require multiple dynamic bodies.

A physics-based algorithm for real-time simulation of electrosurgery procedures in minimally invasive surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Zhonghua; Arikatla, Venkata S; Han, Zhongqing; Allen, Brian F; De, Suvranu

2014-12-01

High-frequency electricity is used in the majority of surgical interventions. However, modern computer-based training and simulation systems rely on physically unrealistic models that fail to capture the interplay of the electrical, mechanical and thermal properties of biological tissue. We present a real-time and physically realistic simulation of electrosurgery by modelling the electrical, thermal and mechanical properties as three iteratively solved finite element models. To provide subfinite-element graphical rendering of vaporized tissue, a dual-mesh dynamic triangulation algorithm based on isotherms is proposed. The block compressed row storage (BCRS) structure is shown to be critical in allowing computationally efficient changes in the tissue topology due to vaporization. We have demonstrated our physics-based electrosurgery cutting algorithm through various examples. Our matrix manipulation algorithms designed for topology changes have shown low computational cost. Our simulator offers substantially greater physical fidelity compared to previous simulators that use simple geometry-based heat characterization. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optimizing the Level of Renewable Electric R&D Expenditures Using Real Options Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davis, G.; Owens, B.

2003-02-01

One of the primary objectives of the United States' federal non-hydro renewable electric R&D program is to promote the development of technologies that have the potential to provide consumers with stable and secure energy supplies. In order to quantify the benefits provided by continued federal renewable electric R&D, this paper uses ''real option'' pricing techniques to estimate the value of renewable electric technologies in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices. Within the real options analysis framework, the current value of expected future supply from renewable electric technologies, net of federal R&D expenditures, is estimated to be $30.6 billion. Of this value, 86% can be attributed to past federal R&D efforts, and 14% can be attributed to future federal R&D efforts, assuming continued federal R&D funding at $300 million/year. In addition, real options analysis shows that the value of renewable electric technologies increases as current and future R&D funding levels increase. This indicates that the current level of federal renewable electric R&D funding is sub-optimal low.

The use of fuzzy real option valuation method to rank Giga ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The use of fuzzy real option valuation method to rank Giga Investment Projects on Iran's natural gas reserves. ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... methodology – discounted cash flow analysis – in valuation of Giga investments.

THE THEORY OF REAL OPTIONS in investment ANALYSIS of agroforestry systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maísa Santos Joaquim

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In this study we compared the values generated by traditional economic analysis (Net Present Value - NPV with Real Options Method. The objective was to apply the method proposed by Copeland & Antikarov for rainbow options, due to three stochastic variables selected with decision of abandonment if the project value with flexibility was less than the value of the underlying stock. It enabled the flexibility value generation in order to entrepreneurs to have more confidence in their decision when they are investing in a project with Agroforestry System, with different scenarios visualization in a single analysis. The results evidenced that the economic viability analysis, using Real Options, provided the best view of the possible scenarios, within a range generated by the prices volatility. The Net Present Value adopted as the underlying stock value was R$ 5,684.32, using the discount rate (WACC of 9.95% and risk-free interest rate of 7.5%. To determine the volatility were calculated: the logarithmic return standard deviation (27.06, the average (0.0883, upward movements values (u (1.3107 with 61.34% of probability and downward movements values (d(0.7628 with 38.66%  of probability. The option value in case of abandonment was R$ 2,059.01/ha positive. The results showed that the NPV overestimated the project return and that it would be viable to abandon it.

A real options approach to biotechnology Investment policy - the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

2016-01-01

The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine developme...

Real-time model for simulating a tracked vehicle on deformable soils

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Meywerk

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Simulation is one possibility to gain insight into the behaviour of tracked vehicles on deformable soils. A lot of publications are known on this topic, but most of the simulations described there cannot be run in real-time. The ability to run a simulation in real-time is necessary for driving simulators. This article describes an approach for real-time simulation of a tracked vehicle on deformable soils. The components of the real-time model are as follows: a conventional wheeled vehicle simulated in the Multi Body System software TRUCKSim, a geometric description of landscape, a track model and an interaction model between track and deformable soils based on Bekker theory and Janosi–Hanamoto, on one hand, and between track and vehicle wheels, on the other hand. Landscape, track model, soil model and the interaction are implemented in MATLAB/Simulink. The details of the real-time model are described in this article, and a detailed description of the Multi Body System part is omitted. Simulations with the real-time model are compared to measurements and to a detailed Multi Body System–finite element method model of a tracked vehicle. An application of the real-time model in a driving simulator is presented, in which 13 drivers assess the comfort of a passive and an active suspension of a tracked vehicle.

Real-time numerical simulation with high efficiency for an experimental reactor system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding Shuling; Li Fu; Li Sifeng; Chu Xinyuan

2006-01-01

The paper presents a systematic and efficient method for numerical real-time simulation of an experimental reactor. The reactor models were built based on the physical characteristics of the experimental reactor, and several real-time simulation approaches were discussed and compared in the paper. How to implement the real-time reactor simulation system in Windows platform for the sake of hardware-in-loop experiment for the reactor power control system was discussed. (authors)

Design base transient analysis using the real-time nuclear reactor simulator model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tien, K.K.; Yakura, S.J.; Morin, J.P.; Gregory, M.V.

1987-01-01

A real-time simulation model has been developed to describe the dynamic response of all major systems in a nuclear process reactor. The model consists of a detailed representation of all hydraulic components in the external coolant circulating loops consisting of piping, valves, pumps and heat exchangers. The reactor core is described by a three-dimensional neutron kinetics model with detailed representation of assembly coolant and moderator thermal hydraulics. The models have been developed to support a real-time training simulator, therefore, they reproduce system parameters characteristic of steady state normal operation with high precision. The system responses for postulated severe transients such as large pipe breaks, loss of pumping power, piping leaks, malfunctions in control rod insertion, and emergency injection of neutron absorber are calculated to be in good agreement with reference safety analyses. Restrictions were imposed by the requirement that the resulting code be able to run in real-time with sufficient spare time to allow interfacing with secondary systems and simulator hardware. Due to hardware set-up and real plant instrumentation, simplifications due to symmetry were not allowed. The resulting code represents a coarse-node engineering model in which the level of detail has been tailored to the available computing power of a present generation super-minicomputer. Results for several significant transients, as calculated by the real-time model, are compared both to actual plant data and to results generated by fine-mesh analysis codes

Design base transient analysis using the real-time nuclear reactor simulator model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tien, K.K.; Yakura, S.J.; Morin, J.P.; Gregory, M.V.

1987-01-01

A real-time simulation model has been developed to describe the dynamic response of all major systems in a nuclear process reactor. The model consists of a detailed representation of all hydraulic components in the external coolant circulating loops consisting of piping, valves, pumps and heat exchangers. The reactor core is described by a three-dimensional neutron kinetics model with detailed representation of assembly coolant and mode-rator thermal hydraulics. The models have been developed to support a real-time training simulator, therefore, they reproduce system parameters characteristic of steady state normal operation with high precision. The system responses for postulated severe transients such as large pipe breaks, loss of pumping power, piping leaks, malfunctions in control rod insertion, and emergency injection of neutron absorber are calculated to be in good agreement with reference safety analyses. Restrictions were imposed by the requirement that the resulting code be able to run in real-time with sufficient spare time to allow interfacing with secondary systems and simulator hardware. Due to hardware set-up and real plant instrumentation, simplifications due to symmetry were not allowed. The resulting code represents a coarse-node engineering model in which the level of detail has been tailored to the available computing power of a present generation super-minicomputer. Results for several significant transients, as calculated by the real-time model, are compared both to actual plant data and to results generated by fine-mesh analysis codes

Valuation of exploration and production assets. An overview of real options models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dias, Marco Antonio Guimaraes

2004-01-01

This paper presents a set of selected real options models to evaluate investments in petroleum exploration and production (E and P) under market and technical uncertainties. First are presented some simple examples to develop the intuition about concepts like option value and optimal option exercise, comparing them with the concepts from the traditional net present value (NPV) criteria. Next, the classical model of Paddock, Siegel and Smith is presented, including a discussion on the practical values for the input parameters. The modeling of oil price uncertainty is presented by comparing some alternative stochastic processes. Other E and P applications discussed here are the selection of mutually exclusive alternatives under uncertainty, the wildcat drilling decision, the appraisal investment decisions, and the analysis of option to expand the production through optional wells

Supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas industry

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mulan Xiaofeng

My dissertation concentrates on several aspects of supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, including gas pipeline transportations, ocean LNG shipping logistics, and downstream storage. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the natural gas and LNG industries, and the topics studied in this thesis. Chapter 2 studies how to value U.S. natural gas pipeline network transport contracts as real options. It is common for natural gas shippers to value and manage contracts by simple adaptations of financial spread option formulas that do not fully account for the implications of the capacity limits and the network structure that distinguish these contracts. In contrast, we show that these operational features can be fully captured and integrated with financial considerations in a fairly easy and managerially significant manner by a model that combines linear programming and simulation. We derive pathwise estimators for the so called deltas and structurally characterize them. We interpret them in a novel fashion as discounted expectations, under a specific weighing distribution, of the amounts of natural gas to be procured/marketed when optimally using pipeline capacity. Based on the actual prices of traded natural gas futures and basis swaps, we show that an enhanced version of the common approach employed in practice can significantly underestimate the true value of natural gas pipeline network capacity. Our model also exhibits promising financial (delta) hedging performance. Thus, this model emerges as an easy to use and useful tool that natural gas shippers can employ to support their valuation and delta hedging decisions concerning natural gas pipeline network transport capacity contracts. Moreover, the insights that follow from our data analysis have broader significance and implications in terms of the management of real options beyond our specific application. Motivated by current developments

The Use of a Real Life Simulated Problem Based Learning Activity in a Corporate Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Laurent, Mark A.

2013-01-01

This narrative study examines using a real life simulated problem base learning activity during education of clinical staff, which is expected to design and develop clinically correct electronic charting systems. Expertise in healthcare does not readily transcend to the realm of manipulating software to collect patient data that is pertinent to…

The impact of delaying an investment decision on R&D projects in real option game

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Shuhua; Li, Yue; Gao, Fanglu

2016-01-01

In a research and development (R&D) investment, the cost and the project value of such an investment are usually uncertain, which thus increases its complexity. Correspondingly, the NPV (Net Present Value) rule fails to evaluate the value of this project exactly, because this method does not take into account the market uncertainty, irreversibility of investment and ability of delay entry. In this paper, we employ the real option theory to evaluate the project value of a R&D investment. Since the cost of a R&D investment is very high and the flow of the information is crowded, an investor cannot make an immediate decision every time. So, the proposed real option model is an exchange option. At the same time, combining the real option and the game theory, we can find the Nash equilibrium which is the optimal strategy. Moreover, we also study how the delayed time influences the price of the project investment and how the different delayed times effect the choice of the optimal strategies.

When to Wait for More Evidence? Real Options Analysis in Proton Therapy

Science.gov (United States)

Abrams, Keith R.; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Pijls-Johannesma, Madelon; Peters, Hans J.M.; Beutner, Eric; Lambin, Philippe; Joore, Manuela A.

2011-01-01

Purpose. Trends suggest that cancer spending growth will accelerate. One method for controlling costs is to examine whether the benefits of new technologies are worth the extra costs. However, especially new and emerging technologies are often more costly, while limited clinical evidence of superiority is available. In that situation it is often unclear whether to adopt the new technology now, with the risk of investing in a suboptimal therapy, or to wait for more evidence, with the risk of withholding patients their optimal treatment. This trade-off is especially difficult when it is costly to reverse the decision to adopt a technology, as is the case for proton therapy. Real options analysis, a technique originating from financial economics, assists in making this trade-off. Methods. We examined whether to adopt proton therapy, as compared to stereotactic body radiotherapy, in the treatment of inoperable stage I non-small cell lung cancer. Three options are available: adopt without further research; adopt and undertake a trial; or delay adoption and undertake a trial. The decision depends on the expected net gain of each option, calculated by subtracting its total costs from its expected benefits. Results. In The Netherlands, adopt and trial was found to be the preferred option, with an optimal sample size of 200 patients. Increase of treatment costs abroad and costs of reversal altered the preferred option. Conclusion. We have shown that real options analysis provides a transparent method of weighing the costs and benefits of adopting and/or further researching new and expensive technologies. PMID:22147003

Stochastic control and real options valuation of thermal storage-enabled demand response from flexible district energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitapbayev, Yerkin; Moriarty, John; Mancarella, Pierluigi

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We calculate the real option value of flexibility from CHP-thermal storage. • Stochastic optimal feedback control problem is solved under uncertain market prices. • Efficient real-time numerical solutions combine simulation, regression and recursion. • Clear, interpretable feedback control maps are produced for each hour of the day. • We give a realistic UK case study using projected market gas and electricity prices. - Abstract: In district energy systems powered by Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants, thermal storage can significantly increase CHP flexibility to respond to real time market signals and therefore improve the business case of such demand response schemes in a Smart Grid environment. However, main challenges remain as to what is the optimal way to control inter-temporal storage operation in the presence of uncertain market prices, and then how to value the investment into storage as flexibility enabler. In this outlook, the aim of this paper is to propose a model for optimal and dynamic control and long term valuation of CHP-thermal storage in the presence of uncertain market prices. The proposed model is formulated as a stochastic control problem and numerically solved through Least Squares Monte Carlo regression analysis, with integrated investment and operational timescale analysis equivalent to real options valuation models encountered in finance. Outputs are represented by clear and interpretable feedback control strategy maps for each hour of the day, thus suitable for real time demand response under uncertainty. Numerical applications to a realistic UK case study with projected market gas and electricity prices exemplify the proposed approach and quantify the robustness of the selected storage solutions

Model-based framework for multi-axial real-time hybrid simulation testing

Science.gov (United States)

Fermandois, Gaston A.; Spencer, Billie F.

2017-10-01

Real-time hybrid simulation is an efficient and cost-effective dynamic testing technique for performance evaluation of structural systems subjected to earthquake loading with rate-dependent behavior. A loading assembly with multiple actuators is required to impose realistic boundary conditions on physical specimens. However, such a testing system is expected to exhibit significant dynamic coupling of the actuators and suffer from time lags that are associated with the dynamics of the servo-hydraulic system, as well as control-structure interaction (CSI). One approach to reducing experimental errors considers a multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) controller design, yielding accurate reference tracking and noise rejection. In this paper, a framework for multi-axial real-time hybrid simulation (maRTHS) testing is presented. The methodology employs a real-time feedback-feedforward controller for multiple actuators commanded in Cartesian coordinates. Kinematic transformations between actuator space and Cartesian space are derived for all six-degrees-offreedom of the moving platform. Then, a frequency domain identification technique is used to develop an accurate MIMO transfer function of the system. Further, a Cartesian-domain model-based feedforward-feedback controller is implemented for time lag compensation and to increase the robustness of the reference tracking for given model uncertainty. The framework is implemented using the 1/5th-scale Load and Boundary Condition Box (LBCB) located at the University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology, a single-story frame subjected to earthquake loading is tested. One of the columns in the frame is represented physically in the laboratory as a cantilevered steel column. For realtime execution, the numerical substructure, kinematic transformations, and controllers are implemented on a digital signal processor. Results show excellent performance of the maRTHS framework when six

Virtual reality cerebral aneurysm clipping simulation with real-time haptic feedback.

Science.gov (United States)

Alaraj, Ali; Luciano, Cristian J; Bailey, Daniel P; Elsenousi, Abdussalam; Roitberg, Ben Z; Bernardo, Antonio; Banerjee, P Pat; Charbel, Fady T

2015-03-01

With the decrease in the number of cerebral aneurysms treated surgically and the increase of complexity of those treated surgically, there is a need for simulation-based tools to teach future neurosurgeons the operative techniques of aneurysm clipping. To develop and evaluate the usefulness of a new haptic-based virtual reality simulator in the training of neurosurgical residents. A real-time sensory haptic feedback virtual reality aneurysm clipping simulator was developed using the ImmersiveTouch platform. A prototype middle cerebral artery aneurysm simulation was created from a computed tomographic angiogram. Aneurysm and vessel volume deformation and haptic feedback are provided in a 3-dimensional immersive virtual reality environment. Intraoperative aneurysm rupture was also simulated. Seventeen neurosurgery residents from 3 residency programs tested the simulator and provided feedback on its usefulness and resemblance to real aneurysm clipping surgery. Residents thought that the simulation would be useful in preparing for real-life surgery. About two-thirds of the residents thought that the 3-dimensional immersive anatomic details provided a close resemblance to real operative anatomy and accurate guidance for deciding surgical approaches. They thought the simulation was useful for preoperative surgical rehearsal and neurosurgical training. A third of the residents thought that the technology in its current form provided realistic haptic feedback for aneurysm surgery. Neurosurgical residents thought that the novel immersive VR simulator is helpful in their training, especially because they do not get a chance to perform aneurysm clippings until late in their residency programs.

Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boomsma, Trine Krogh; Meade, Nigel; Fleten, Stein-Erik

2012-01-01

-in tariff encourages earlier investment. Nevertheless, as investment has been undertaken, renewable energy certificate trading creates incentives for larger projects. In our baseline scenario and taking the fixed feed-in tariff as a base, the revenue required to trigger investments is 61% higher......This paper adopts a real options approach to analyze investment timing and capacity choice for renewable energy projects under different support schemes. The main purpose is to examine investment behavior under the most extensively employed support schemes, namely, feed-in tariffs and renewable...... energy certificate trading. We consider both multiple sources of uncertainty under each support scheme and uncertainty with respect to any change of support scheme, and we obtain both analytical (when possible) and numerical solutions. In a Nordic case study based on wind power, we find that the feed...

An Economic Evaluation on Replacement Plan for Aged Thermal Power Plants through a Real Option Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

This paper presents a novel method to evaluate replacement plan for aged thermal power plants under uncertain circumstances through a real option approach. The most economical plan is selected among the three options: an option to operate an existing oil-fired thermal plant, an option to mothball it, and an option to abandon it and to construct an advanced gas combined cycle power plant (ACC) at the same time. Basic ideas of our model are: we use quadranomial approach in order to evaluate an option value consisted by two different uncertain assets; we consider cash flow with a dividend in order to reflect conditions of an aged oil-fired thermal plant and use the sequential compound option approach; we evaluate replacement time using quadranomial decision tree taking into account the options. We also analyze value and time of replacement using numerical examples. Our proposed method will be practically used for generation planning. For example it is possible to make priority quantitatively in replacements of aged thermal power plants by real option values. The target year of replacement may be set as a year when cumulative probability of replacement becomes over certain level.

Exploring policy options for a transition to sustainable heating system diffusion using an agent-based simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maya Sopha, Bertha; Kloeckner, Christian A.; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2011-01-01

Change in home heating to more efficient and renewable systems is important for a sound climate policy. The present paper aims to identify potential interventions for the uptake of wood-pellet heating in Norway using an agent-based model (ABM). The theoretically based, empirically founded, agent-based simulation demonstrates that financial support, i.e., a stable wood-pellet price, and technical development, i.e., functional reliability improvement, have to be established all at the same time for a successful wood-pellet market to start. Furthermore, a soft intervention through persuading households to use environmentally beneficial heating system is not a promising driver for wood-pellet diffusion. Limitations and suggestions for future work are also discussed. - Research highlights: → The theoretically based, empirically founded, agent-based simulation is applied to investigate potential policy options toward diffusion of wood-pellet heating in Norway. → Relative advantages are necessary for wood-pellet heating to be adopted, consistent with Diffusion of Innovation theory (). → Simultaneous development is also required for further uptake of wood-pellet heating, supporting the existing empirical hypothesis by . → Persuading households to use environmentally friendly heating system is not a promising driver, in line with empirical finding of , who investigated psychological factors underlying the adoption of wood-pellet heating.

Exploring policy options for a transition to sustainable heating system diffusion using an agent-based simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maya Sopha, Bertha, E-mail: bertha.sopha@ntnu.n [Industrial Ecology Programme and Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim (Norway); Kloeckner, Christian A. [Department of Psychology, Section for Risk Psychology, Environment and Safety (RIPENSA), Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim (Norway); Hertwich, Edgar G. [Industrial Ecology Programme and Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim (Norway)

2011-05-15

Change in home heating to more efficient and renewable systems is important for a sound climate policy. The present paper aims to identify potential interventions for the uptake of wood-pellet heating in Norway using an agent-based model (ABM). The theoretically based, empirically founded, agent-based simulation demonstrates that financial support, i.e., a stable wood-pellet price, and technical development, i.e., functional reliability improvement, have to be established all at the same time for a successful wood-pellet market to start. Furthermore, a soft intervention through persuading households to use environmentally beneficial heating system is not a promising driver for wood-pellet diffusion. Limitations and suggestions for future work are also discussed. - Research highlights: {yields} The theoretically based, empirically founded, agent-based simulation is applied to investigate potential policy options toward diffusion of wood-pellet heating in Norway. {yields} Relative advantages are necessary for wood-pellet heating to be adopted, consistent with Diffusion of Innovation theory (). {yields} Simultaneous development is also required for further uptake of wood-pellet heating, supporting the existing empirical hypothesis by . {yields} Persuading households to use environmentally friendly heating system is not a promising driver, in line with empirical finding of , who investigated psychological factors underlying the adoption of wood-pellet heating.

Realistic 3D Terrain Roaming and Real-Time Flight Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Que, Xiang; Liu, Gang; He, Zhenwen; Qi, Guang

2014-12-01

This paper presents an integrate method, which can provide access to current status and the dynamic visible scanning topography, to enhance the interactive during the terrain roaming and real-time flight simulation. A digital elevation model and digital ortho-photo map data integrated algorithm is proposed as the base algorithm for our approach to build a realistic 3D terrain scene. A new technique with help of render to texture and head of display for generating the navigation pane is used. In the flight simulating, in order to eliminate flying "jump", we employs the multidimensional linear interpolation method to adjust the camera parameters dynamically and steadily. Meanwhile, based on the principle of scanning laser imaging, we draw pseudo color figures by scanning topography in different directions according to the real-time flying status. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is prospective for applications and the method can improve the effect and enhance dynamic interaction during the real-time flight.

Feasibility analysis of the development of an oil field: a real options approach in a production sharing agreement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcelo Nunes Fonseca

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The aim of this research is to analyze the feasibility of developing a real oil field in Africa under a production sharing agreement, through the application of the real options theory. Design/methodology/approach – The research was conducted according to the principles of modeling and simulation, based on a structure that consists of three phases, in order to facilitate project feasibility analysis. Findings – Initially, according to the traditional method, we suggest that the decision-maker does not invest in the development of the field. However, by incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process, other results were obtained. Although reduced, we attested that there is a likelihood of feasibility. Next, by using the binomial model to represent the process of oil barrel price diffusion, the asset value is calculated considering the flexibility of delaying the development of the field. Originality/value – The results show that, if a manager has the right to invest in the future and wait for better oil prices, postponing the development of an oil field adds value to his assets. The proposed method is a contribution that offers subsidies to improve decisionmaking processes to evaluate investments.

A multi-GPU real-time dose simulation software framework for lung radiotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Santhanam, A P; Min, Y; Neelakkantan, H; Papp, N; Meeks, S L; Kupelian, P A

2012-09-01

Medical simulation frameworks facilitate both the preoperative and postoperative analysis of the patient's pathophysical condition. Of particular importance is the simulation of radiation dose delivery for real-time radiotherapy monitoring and retrospective analyses of the patient's treatment. In this paper, a software framework tailored for the development of simulation-based real-time radiation dose monitoring medical applications is discussed. A multi-GPU-based computational framework coupled with inter-process communication methods is introduced for simulating the radiation dose delivery on a deformable 3D volumetric lung model and its real-time visualization. The model deformation and the corresponding dose calculation are allocated among the GPUs in a task-specific manner and is performed in a pipelined manner. Radiation dose calculations are computed on two different GPU hardware architectures. The integration of this computational framework with a front-end software layer and back-end patient database repository is also discussed. Real-time simulation of the dose delivered is achieved at once every 120 ms using the proposed framework. With a linear increase in the number of GPU cores, the computational time of the simulation was linearly decreased. The inter-process communication time also improved with an increase in the hardware memory. Variations in the delivered dose and computational speedup for variations in the data dimensions are investigated using D70 and D90 as well as gEUD as metrics for a set of 14 patients. Computational speed-up increased with an increase in the beam dimensions when compared with a CPU-based commercial software while the error in the dose calculation was lung model-based radiotherapy is an effective tool for performing both real-time and retrospective analyses.

Seismic performance evaluation of an MR elastomer-based smart base isolation system using real-time hybrid simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eem, S H; Jung, H J; Koo, J H

2013-01-01

Recently, magneto-rheological (MR) elastomer-based base isolation systems have been actively studied as alternative smart base isolation systems because MR elastomers are capable of adjusting their modulus or stiffness depending on the magnitude of the applied magnetic field. By taking advantage of the MR elastomers’ stiffness-tuning ability, MR elastomer-based smart base isolation systems strive to alleviate limitations of existing smart base isolation systems as well as passive-type base isolators. Until now, research on MR elastomer-based base isolation systems primarily focused on characterization, design, and numerical evaluations of MR elastomer-based isolators, as well as experimental tests with simple structure models. However, their applicability to large civil structures has not been properly studied yet because it is quite challenging to numerically emulate the complex behavior of MR elastomer-based isolators and to conduct experiments with large-size structures. To address these difficulties, this study employs the real-time hybrid simulation technique, which combines physical testing and computational modeling. The primary goal of the current hybrid simulation study is to evaluate seismic performances of an MR elastomer-based smart base isolation system, particularly its adaptability to distinctly different seismic excitations. In the hybrid simulation, a single-story building structure (non-physical, computational model) is coupled with a physical testing setup for a smart base isolation system with associated components (such as laminated MR elastomers and electromagnets) installed on a shaking table. A series of hybrid simulations is carried out under two seismic excitations having different dominant frequencies. The results show that the proposed smart base isolation system outperforms the passive base isolation system in reducing the responses of the structure for the excitations considered in this study. (paper)

Virtual Reality Cerebral Aneurysm Clipping Simulation With Real-time Haptic Feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Alaraj, Ali; Luciano, Cristian J.; Bailey, Daniel P.; Elsenousi, Abdussalam; Roitberg, Ben Z.; Bernardo, Antonio; Banerjee, P. Pat; Charbel, Fady T.

2014-01-01

Background With the decrease in the number of cerebral aneurysms treated surgically and the increase of complexity of those treated surgically, there is a need for simulation-based tools to teach future neurosurgeons the operative techniques of aneurysm clipping. Objective To develop and evaluate the usefulness of a new haptic-based virtual reality (VR) simulator in the training of neurosurgical residents. Methods A real-time sensory haptic feedback virtual reality aneurysm clipping simulator was developed using the Immersive Touch platform. A prototype middle cerebral artery aneurysm simulation was created from a computed tomography angiogram. Aneurysm and vessel volume deformation and haptic feedback are provided in a 3-D immersive VR environment. Intraoperative aneurysm rupture was also simulated. Seventeen neurosurgery residents from three residency programs tested the simulator and provided feedback on its usefulness and resemblance to real aneurysm clipping surgery. Results Residents felt that the simulation would be useful in preparing for real-life surgery. About two thirds of the residents felt that the 3-D immersive anatomical details provided a very close resemblance to real operative anatomy and accurate guidance for deciding surgical approaches. They believed the simulation is useful for preoperative surgical rehearsal and neurosurgical training. One third of the residents felt that the technology in its current form provided very realistic haptic feedback for aneurysm surgery. Conclusion Neurosurgical residents felt that the novel immersive VR simulator is helpful in their training especially since they do not get a chance to perform aneurysm clippings until very late in their residency programs. PMID:25599200

Real time simulation techniques in Taiwan - Maanshan compact simulator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liang, K.-S.; Chuang, Y.-M.; Ko, H.-T.

2004-01-01

Recognizing the demand and potential market of simulators in various industries, a special project for real time simulation technology transfer was initiated in Taiwan in 1991. In this technology transfer program, the most advanced real-time dynamic modules for nuclear power simulation were introduced. Those modules can be divided into two categories; one is modeling related to catch dynamic response of each system, and the other is computer related to provide special real time computing environment and man-machine interface. The modeling related modules consist of the thermodynamic module, the three-dimensional core neutronics module and the advanced balance of plant module. As planned in the project, the technology transfer team should build a compact simulator for the Maanshan power plant before the end of the project to demonstrate the success of the technology transfer program. The compact simulator was designed to support the training from the regular full scope simulator which was already equipped in the Maanshan plant. The feature of this compact simulator focused on providing know-why training by the enhanced graphic display. The potential users were identified as senior operators, instructors and nuclear engineers. Total about 13 important systems were covered in the scope of the compact simulator, and multi-graphic displays from three color monitors mounted on the 10 feet compact panel were facilitated to help the user visualize detailed phenomena under scenarios of interest. (author)

Real options and asset valuation in competitive energy markets

Science.gov (United States)

Oduntan, Adekunle Richard

The focus of this work is to develop a robust valuation framework for physical power assets operating in competitive markets such as peaking or mid-merit thermal power plants and baseload power plants. The goal is to develop a modeling framework that can be adapted to different energy assets with different types of operating flexibilities and technical constraints and which can be employed for various purposes such as capital budgeting, business planning, risk management and strategic bidding planning among others. The valuation framework must also be able to capture the reality of power market rules and opportunities, as well as technical constraints of different assets. The modeling framework developed conceptualizes operating flexibilities of power assets as "switching options' whereby the asset operator decides at every decision point whether to switch from one operating mode to another mutually exclusive mode, within the limits of the equipment constraints of the asset. As a current decision to switch operating modes may affect future operating flexibilities of the asset and hence cash flows, a dynamic optimization framework is employed. The developed framework accounts for the uncertain nature of key value drivers by representing them with appropriate stochastic processes. Specifically, the framework developed conceptualizes the operation of a power asset as a multi-stage decision making problem where the operator has to make a decision at every stage to alter operating mode given currently available information about key value drivers. The problem is then solved dynamically by decomposing it into a series of two-stage sub-problems according to Bellman's optimality principle. The solution algorithm employed is the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. The developed valuation framework was adapted for a gas-fired thermal power plant, a peaking hydroelectric power plant and a baseload power plant. This work built on previously published real options valuation

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis M. Abadie

2014-05-01

Full Text Available We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC, and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

Operating system for a real-time multiprocessor propulsion system simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, G. L.

1984-01-01

The success of the Real Time Multiprocessor Operating System (RTMPOS) in the development and evaluation of experimental hardware and software systems for real time interactive simulation of air breathing propulsion systems was evaluated. The Real Time Multiprocessor Operating System (RTMPOS) provides the user with a versatile, interactive means for loading, running, debugging and obtaining results from a multiprocessor based simulator. A front end processor (FEP) serves as the simulator controller and interface between the user and the simulator. These functions are facilitated by the RTMPOS which resides on the FEP. The RTMPOS acts in conjunction with the FEP's manufacturer supplied disk operating system that provides typical utilities like an assembler, linkage editor, text editor, file handling services, etc. Once a simulation is formulated, the RTMPOS provides for engineering level, run time operations such as loading, modifying and specifying computation flow of programs, simulator mode control, data handling and run time monitoring. Run time monitoring is a powerful feature of RTMPOS that allows the user to record all actions taken during a simulation session and to receive advisories from the simulator via the FEP. The RTMPOS is programmed mainly in PASCAL along with some assembly language routines. The RTMPOS software is easily modified to be applicable to hardware from different manufacturers.

UAV Flight Control Based on RTX System Simulation Platform

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaojun Duan

2014-03-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes RTX and Matlab UAV flight control system simulation platform based on the advantages and disadvantages of Windows and real-time system RTX. In the simulation platform, we set the RTW toolbox configuration and modify grt_main.c in order to make simulation platform endowed with online parameter adjustment, fault injection. Meanwhile, we develop the interface of the system simulation platform by CVI, thus it makes effective and has good prospects in application. In order to improve the real-time performance of simulation system, the current computer of real-time simulation mostly use real-time operating system to solve simulation model, as well as dual- framework containing in Host and target machine. The system is complex, high cost, and generally used for the control and half of practical system simulation. For the control system designers, they expect to design control law at a computer with Windows-based environment and conduct real-time simulation. This paper proposes simulation platform for UAV flight control system based on RTX and Matlab for this demand.

A Real Options Analysis of Coffee Planting in Vietnam

OpenAIRE

Luong, Quoc; Tauer, Loren W.

2004-01-01

Vietnam grew from an insignificant to the world’s second largest coffee producer during the 1990s. To understand this growth, this paper examines Vietnamese coffee growers’ investment decisions using real options theory. The study finds that producers, with variable costs of 19 cents/lb and total cost of 29.3 cents/lb, would enter coffee production at a coffee price of 47 cents/lb and exit at a coffee price of 14 cents/lb. Most Vietnamese growers appear to be sufficiently efficient to continu...

Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cecilia Maya Ochoa

2004-12-01

Full Text Available There exists an abysm between market prices and traditional valuation approaches such as Discounted Cash Flows (DCF, a fact that neither academics nor practitioners could continue ignoring. Recently, a complementary approach has taken a foothold into the valuation world. Building on the DCF approach yet going further in the sense of incorporating flexibility in management investment decisions, and taking advantage of the advances in option pricing theory, the real options approach (ROA has become the alternative to capital budgeting and, lately, to corporate valuation. Empirical evidence shows that ROA explains actual prices better than DCF approaches and nowadays there is no question that from a theoretical point of view, ROA is a much more appealing concept than passive NPV. However, its acceptance by practitioners has been very slow due to the complexity of real options pricing.Existe un abismo entre precios de Mercado y la valoración estimada por métodos tradicionales tales como Flujos de Caja Descontados, un hecho que ni académicos ni practicantes pueden continuar ignorando. Recientemente, una metodología complementaria ha tomado gran fuerza. Partiendo de los Flujos de Caja Descontados, pero incorporando flexibilidad en las decisiones de inversión y aprovechando los avances en la teoría de valoración de opciones, el enfoque de opciones reales (ROA se ha convertido en la alternativa para presupuestación de capital y valoración de empresas. La evidencia empírica muestra que ROA explica los precios de mercado mejor que los enfoques basados en flujos de caja descontados y, hoy en día, no hay discusión de que es más atractivo desde un punto de vista teórico; sin embargo, su utilización en la práctica ha sido muy limitada debido a las dificultades que presenta la valoración de las opciones reales.

Visual acuity with simulated and real astigmatic defocus.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohlendorf, Arne; Tabernero, Juan; Schaeffel, Frank

2011-05-01

To compare the effects of "simulated" and "real" spherical and astigmatic defocus on visual acuity (VA). VA was determined with letter charts that were blurred by calculated spherical or astigmatic defocus (simulated defocus) or were seen through spherical or astigmatic trial lenses (real defocus). Defocus was simulated using ZEMAX and the Liou-Brennan eye model. Nine subjects participated [mean age, 27.2 ± 1.8 years; logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR), -0.1]. Three different experiments were conducted in which VA was reduced by 20% (logMAR 0.0), 50% (logMAR 0.2), or 75% (logMAR 0.5) by either (1) imposing positive spherical defocus, (2) imposing positive and negative astigmatic defocus in three axes (0, 45, and 90°), and (3) imposing cross-cylinder defocus in the same three axes as in (2). Experiment (1): there were only minor differences in VA with simulated and real positive spherical defocus. Experiment (2): simulated astigmatic defocus reduced VA twice as much as real astigmatic defocus in all tested axes (p < 0.01 in all cases). Experiment (3): simulated cross-cylinder defocus reduced VA much more than real cross-cylinder defocus (p < 0.01 in all cases), similarly for all three tested axes. The visual system appears more tolerant against "real" spherical, astigmatic, and cross-cylinder defocus than against "simulated" blur. Possible reasons could be (1) limitations in the modeling procedures to simulate defocus, (2) higher ocular aberrations, and (3) fluctuations of accommodation. However, the two optical explanations (2) and (3) cannot account for the magnitude of the effect, and (1) was carefully analyzed. It is proposed that something may be special about the visual processing of real astigmatic and cross-cylinder defocus-because they have less effect on VA than simulations predict.

Real-time dynamic simulator for the Topaz II reactor power system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwok, K.S.

1994-01-01

A dynamic simulator of the TOPAZ II reactor system has been developed for the Nuclear Electric Propulsion Space Test Program. The simulator is a self-contained IBM-PC compatible based system that executes at a speed faster than real-time. The simulator combines first-principle modeling and empirical correlations in its algorithm to attain the modeling accuracy and computational through-put that are required for real-time execution. The overall execution time of the simulator for each time step is 15 ms when no data is written to the disk, and 18 ms when nine double precision data points are written to the disk once in every time step. The simulation program has been tested and it is able to handle a step decrease of $8 worth of reactivity. It also provides simulation of fuel, emitter, collector, stainless steel, and ZrH moderator failures. Presented in this paper are the models used in the calculations, a sample simulation session, and a discussion of the performance and limitations of the simulator. The simulator has been found to provide realistic real-time dynamic response of the TOPAZ II reactor system under both normal and causality conditions

Sequencing Infrastructure Investments under Deep Uncertainty Using Real Options Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nishtha Manocha

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The adaptation tipping point and adaptation pathway approach developed to make decisions under deep uncertainty do not shed light on which among the multiple available pathways should be chosen as the preferred pathway. This creates the need to extend these approaches by means of suitable tools that can help sequence actions and subsequently enable the outlining of relevant policies. This paper presents two sequencing approaches, namely, the “Build to Target” and “Build Up” approach, to aid in sub-selecting a set of preferred pathways. Both approaches differ in the levels of flexibility they offer. They are exemplified by means of two case studies wherein the Net Present Valuation and the Real Options Analysis are employed as selection criterions. The results demonstrate the benefit of these two approaches when used in conjunction with the adaptation pathways and show how the pathways selected by means of a Build to Target approach generally have a value greater than, or at least the same as, the pathways selected by the Build Up approach. Further, this paper also demonstrates the capacity of Real Options to quantify and capture the economic value of flexibility, which cannot be done by traditional valuation approaches such as Net Present Valuation.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF DRAGREDUCING SURFACE OF A REAL SHARK SKIN*

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG De-yuan; LUO Yue-hao; LI Xiang; CHEN Hua-wei

2011-01-01

It is well known that shark skin surface can effectively inhabit the occurrence of turbulence and reduce the wall friction,but in order to understand the mechanism of drag reduction, one has to solve the problem of the turbulent flow on grooved-scale surface, and in that respect, the direct numerical simulation is an important tool.In this article, based on the real biological shark skin,the model of real shark skin is built through high-accurate scanning and data processing.The turbulent flow on a real shark skin is comprehensively simulated, and based on the simulation, the drag reduction mechanism is discussed.In addition, in order to validate the drag-reducing effect of shark skin surface, actual experiments were carried out in water tunnel, and the experimental results are approximately consistent with the numerical simulation.

A novel method to value real options in health care: the case of a multicohort human papillomavirus vaccination strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Favato, Giampiero; Baio, Gianluca; Capone, Alessandro; Marcellusi, Andrea; Saverio Mennini, Francesco

2013-07-01

A large number of economic evaluations have already confirmed the cost-effectiveness of different human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Standard analyses might not capture the full economic value of novel vaccination programs because the cost-effectiveness paradigm fails to take into account the value of active management. Management decisions can be seen as real options, a term used to refer to the application of option pricing theory to the valuation of investments in nonfinancial assets in which much of the value is attributable to flexibility and learning over time. The aim of this article was to discuss the potential advantages shown by using the payoff method in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing HPV immunization programs. This was the first study, to the best of our knowledge, to use the payoff method to determine the real option values of 4 different HPV vaccination strategies targeting female subjects aged 12, 15, 18, and 25 years. The payoff method derives the real option value from the triangular payoff distribution of the project's net present value, which is treated as a triangular fuzzy number. To inform the real option model, cost-effectiveness data were derived from an empirically calibrated Bayesian model designed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a multicohort HPV vaccination strategy in the context of the current cervical cancer screening program in Italy. A net health benefit approach was used to calculate the expected fuzzy net present value for each of the 4 vaccination strategies evaluated. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained seemed to be related to the number of cohorts targeted: a single cohort of girls aged 12 years (€10,955 [95% CI, -1,021 to 28,212]) revealed the lowest cost among the 4 alternative strategies evaluated. The real option valuation challenged the cost-effectiveness dominance of a single cohort of 12-year-old girls. The simultaneous vaccination of 2 cohorts of girls aged 12 and 15

A heterogeneous system based on GPU and multi-core CPU for real-time fluid and rigid body simulation

Science.gov (United States)

da Silva Junior, José Ricardo; Gonzalez Clua, Esteban W.; Montenegro, Anselmo; Lage, Marcos; Dreux, Marcelo de Andrade; Joselli, Mark; Pagliosa, Paulo A.; Kuryla, Christine Lucille

2012-03-01

Computational fluid dynamics in simulation has become an important field not only for physics and engineering areas but also for simulation, computer graphics, virtual reality and even video game development. Many efficient models have been developed over the years, but when many contact interactions must be processed, most models present difficulties or cannot achieve real-time results when executed. The advent of parallel computing has enabled the development of many strategies for accelerating the simulations. Our work proposes a new system which uses some successful algorithms already proposed, as well as a data structure organisation based on a heterogeneous architecture using CPUs and GPUs, in order to process the simulation of the interaction of fluids and rigid bodies. This successfully results in a two-way interaction between them and their surrounding objects. As far as we know, this is the first work that presents a computational collaborative environment which makes use of two different paradigms of hardware architecture for this specific kind of problem. Since our method achieves real-time results, it is suitable for virtual reality, simulation and video game fluid simulation problems.

Modeling and real time simulation of an HVDC inverter feeding a weak AC system based on commutation failure study.

Science.gov (United States)

Mankour, Mohamed; Khiat, Mounir; Ghomri, Leila; Chaker, Abdelkader; Bessalah, Mourad

2018-06-01

This paper presents modeling and study of 12-pulse HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) based on real time simulation where the HVDC inverter is connected to a weak AC system. In goal to study the dynamic performance of the HVDC link, two serious kind of disturbance are applied at HVDC converters where the first one is the single phase to ground AC fault and the second one is the DC link to ground fault. The study is based on two different mode of analysis, which the first is to test the performance of the DC control and the second is focalized to study the effect of the protection function on the system behavior. This real time simulation considers the strength of the AC system to witch is connected and his relativity with the capacity of the DC link. The results obtained are validated by means of RT-lab platform using digital Real time simulator Hypersim (OP-5600), the results carried out show the effect of the DC control and the influence of the protection function to reduce the probability of commutation failures and also for helping inverter to take out from commutation failure even while the DC control fails to eliminate them. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real Options in an Aymmetric Duopoly : Who Benefits from your Competitive Disadvantage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pawlina, G.; Kort, P.M.

2001-01-01

This paper considers the impact of investment cost asymmetry on the value and optimal real option exercise strategies of firms under imperfect competition.Both firms have an opportunity to invest in a project enhancing (ceteris paribus) the profit now.We show that three types of equilibria exist and

Real - time Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Groundwater in Typical Arid Area Based on SPASS Improvement

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiao-ming

2018-03-01

The establishment of traditional groundwater numerical simulation model, parameter identification and inspection process, especially the water level fitting and the actual observation of the value obtained compared to a large error. Based on the SPASS software, a large number of statistical analysis of the numerical simulation results show that the complexity of the terrain in the study area, the distribution of lithology and the influence of the parameters on the groundwater level in the study area have great influence on the groundwater level. Through the multi-factor analysis and adjustment, the simulated groundwater flow and the actual observation are similar. Then, the final result is taken as the standard value, and the groundwater in the study area is simulated and predicted in real time. The simulation results provide technical support for the further development and utilization of the local water resources.

Development of an MMS/PC based real time simulation of the B and W NSS plant for advanced control system design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartells, P.S.; Brownell, R.B.

1990-01-01

The development of this personal-computer-based simulation of the Babcock and Wilcox nuclear steam system (NSS) was prompted in part by the need for a real-time analysis tool to be used in evaluating advanced control concepts for the NSS. NSS control is currently accomplished via conventional analog systems that are becoming increasingly obsolete. With the widespread use of digital micro-processor-based control systems for fossil power and other applications, the B and W Owners Group Advanced Control System Task Force is developing a next-generation control system for upgrading existing B and W power plants. To take advantage of the digital control technology, it is desirable to have a flexible, cost-effective, and portable control analysis tool available that can simulate various postulated control strategies and algorithms and couple these with simulated plant responses in real time to determine overall effectiveness. To develop the desired capability, B and W has incorporated the simulation methodology of the Modular Modeling System (MMS) and the knowledge gained during development of a similar Department of Energy-funded project. The MMS-based NSS model was developed and then modified to increase execution speed, ported to an IBM Personal System 2 (Model 80) and interfaced with user-friendly graphics. The user can develop alternative control strategies and readily interface them with the NSS model for real-time display and evaluation. The paper addresses the key considerations and programming techniques used to accomplish the resulting simulation

Progress on RTSS simulation-based analysis for real-time systems development at two laboratories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shu, Y.; Jia, M.; Fei, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Liu, G.; Yang, S.; Chen, Y.

1996-01-01

A new object-oriented Real Time System Simulator (RTSS) with the capability for simulation graphics and animation, has been developed and used for modeling the distributed data acquisition and processing systems at JET and ASIPP. Simulation allows estimates of response time, throughput and resource utilization for a variety of configurations to be investigated. Performance measurements, simulation and analysis are used together to calibrate and validate each other

Real-time tumor ablation simulation based on the dynamic mode decomposition method

KAUST Repository

Bourantas, George C.; Ghommem, Mehdi; Kagadis, George C.; Katsanos, Konstantinos H.; Loukopoulos, Vassilios C.; Burganos, Vasilis N.; Nikiforidis, George C.

2014-01-01

Purpose: The dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) method is used to provide a reliable forecasting of tumor ablation treatment simulation in real time, which is quite needed in medical practice. To achieve this, an extended Pennes bioheat model must

EL MÉTODO DE DIFERENCIAS FINITAS EN EVALUACIÓN DE OPCIONES REALES THE FINITE DIFFERENCE METHOD IN REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sebastián Otero G

2008-06-01

representa su capacidad de incorporar en el análisis el valor de la flexibilidad operativa del proyecto.In the past few years, real options, an extension of financial derivatives, have arisen as an alternative to traditional valuation methods, such as net present value (NPV. The key attribute of real options is that they take into consideration the uncertainty and flexibility involved in investment valuation. This article provides an overview of the finite difference method, by presenting an application to the real options valuation. The empirical section of the article, which makes use of the implicit finite difference method (IFD, analyzes the options of waiting, abandoning, contracting, expanding and switching, by valuing all the options involved and their possible combinations. The results are compared with those of the NPV method and the binomial tree with a logarithmic transformation (BTLT. Both methods (IFD and BTLT yield similar results, being both greater than those provided by the NPV. This difference comes to no surprise as it represents the value of the flexibility associated to an investment opportunity.

A MATLAB based Distributed Real-time Simulation of Lander-Orbiter-Earth Communication for Lunar Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Choudhury, Diptyajit; Angeloski, Aleksandar; Ziah, Haseeb; Buchholz, Hilmar; Landsman, Andre; Gupta, Amitava; Mitra, Tiyasa

Lunar explorations often involve use of a lunar lander , a rover [1],[2] and an orbiter which rotates around the moon with a fixed radius. The orbiters are usually lunar satellites orbiting along a polar orbit to ensure visibility with respect to the rover and the Earth Station although with varying latency. Communication in such deep space missions is usually done using a specialized protocol like Proximity-1[3]. MATLAB simulation of Proximity-1 have been attempted by some contemporary researchers[4] to simulate all features like transmission control, delay etc. In this paper it is attempted to simulate, in real time, the communication between a tracking station on earth (earth station), a lunar orbiter and a lunar rover using concepts of Distributed Real-time Simulation(DRTS).The objective of the simulation is to simulate, in real-time, the time varying communication delays associated with the communicating elements with a facility to integrate specific simulation modules to study different aspects e.g. response due to a specific control command from the earth station to be executed by the rover. The hardware platform comprises four single board computers operating as stand-alone real time systems (developed by MATLAB xPC target and inter-networked using UDP-IP protocol). A time triggered DRTS approach is adopted. The earth station, the orbiter and the rover are programmed as three standalone real-time processes representing the communicating elements in the system. Communication from one communicating element to another constitutes an event which passes a state message from one element to another, augmenting the state of the latter. These events are handled by an event scheduler which is the fourth real-time process. The event scheduler simulates the delay in space communication taking into consideration the distance between the communicating elements. A unique time synchronization algorithm is developed which takes into account the large latencies in space

Real-time digital simulation of power electronics systems with Neutral Point Piloted multilevel inverter using FPGA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rakotozafy, Mamianja [Groupe de Recherches en Electrotechnique et Electronique de Nancy (GREEN), Faculte des Sciences et Techniques, BP 70239, 54506 Vandoeuvre Cedex (France); CONVERTEAM SAS, Parc d' activites Techn' hom, 24 avenue du Marechal Juin, BP 40437, 90008 Belfort Cedex (France); Poure, Philippe [Laboratoire d' Instrumentation Electronique de Nancy (LIEN), Faculte des Sciences et Techniques, BP 70239, 54506 Vandoeuvre Cedex (France); Saadate, Shahrokh [Groupe de Recherches en Electrotechnique et Electronique de Nancy (GREEN), Faculte des Sciences et Techniques, BP 70239, 54506 Vandoeuvre Cedex (France); Bordas, Cedric; Leclere, Loic [CONVERTEAM SAS, Parc d' activites Techn' hom, 24 avenue du Marechal Juin, BP 40437, 90008 Belfort Cedex (France)

2011-02-15

Most of actual real time simulation platforms have practically about ten microseconds as minimum calculation time step, mainly due to computation limits such as processing speed, architecture adequacy and modeling complexities. Therefore, simulation of fast switching converters' instantaneous models requires smaller computing time step. The approach presented in this paper proposes an answer to such limited modeling accuracies and computational bandwidth of the currently available digital simulators.As an example, the authors present a low cost, flexible and high performance FPGA-based real-time digital simulator for a complete complex power system with Neutral Point Piloted (NPP) three-level inverter. The proposed real-time simulator can model accurately and efficiently the complete power system, reducing costs, physical space and avoiding any damage to the actual equipment in the case of any dysfunction of the digital controller prototype. The converter model is computed at a small fixed time step as low as 100 ns. Such a computation time step allows high precision account of the gating signals and thus avoids averaging methods and event compensations. Moreover, a novel high performance model of the NPP three-level inverter has also been proposed for FPGA implementation. The proposed FPGA-based simulator models the environment of the NPP converter: the dc link, the RLE load and the digital controller and gating signals. FPGA-based real time simulation results are presented and compared with offline results obtained using PLECS software. They validate the efficiency and accuracy of the modeling for the proposed high performance FPGA-based real-time simulation approach. This paper also introduces new potential FPGA-based applications such as low cost real time simulator for power systems by developing a library of flexible and portable models for power converters, electrical machines and drives. (author)

When Do Firms Invest in Corporate Social Responsibility? : A Real Option Framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cassimon, D.; Engelen, P.J.; Liedekerke, L.

2014-01-01

In this paper, the process for firms to decide whether or not to invest in corporate social responsibility is treated from a real option perspective. We extend the Husted (2005) framework with an important extra parameter that allows us to understand the timing of CSR investment and explain why some

Testing power system controllers by real-time simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Venne, Philippe; Guillaud, Xavier; Sirois, Frédéric

2007-01-01

In this paper, we present a number of state-of-the art methods for testing power system controllers based on the use of a real-time power system simulator. After introducing Hypersim, we list and discuss the different means of connection between the controller under tests and the power system...

Real-Time-Simulation of IEEE-5-Bus Network on OPAL-RT-OP4510 Simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Atul Bhandakkar, Anjali; Mathew, Lini, Dr.

2018-03-01

The Real-Time Simulator tools have high computing technologies, improved performance. They are widely used for design and improvement of electrical systems. The advancement of the software tools like MATLAB/SIMULINK with its Real-Time Workshop (RTW) and Real-Time Windows Target (RTWT), real-time simulators are used extensively in many engineering fields, such as industry, education, and research institutions. OPAL-RT-OP4510 is a Real-Time Simulator which is used in both industry and academia. In this paper, the real-time simulation of IEEE-5-Bus network is carried out by means of OPAL-RT-OP4510 with CRO and other hardware. The performance of the network is observed with the introduction of fault at various locations. The waveforms of voltage, current, active and reactive power are observed in the MATLAB simulation environment and on the CRO. Also, Load Flow Analysis (LFA) of IEEE-5-Bus network is computed using MATLAB/Simulink power-gui load flow tool.

What is the (Real Option) Value of a College Degree?

OpenAIRE

Jeffrey R. Stokes

2013-01-01

The value of a college degree is often quantified as the difference in earnings between those with and without a degree. The research presented here operationalizes this idea in two important ways. First, since future income and tuition are uncertain, a contingent claims model is developed and the appropriate discount rate for valuing future earnings is, therefore, endogenized given an economy that does not permit arbitrage. Second, the model is sensitive to the valuation of the real option t...

Towards real-time communication between in vivo neurophysiological data sources and simulator-based brain biomimetic models.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Giljae; Matsunaga, Andréa; Dura-Bernal, Salvador; Zhang, Wenjie; Lytton, William W; Francis, Joseph T; Fortes, José Ab

2014-11-01

Development of more sophisticated implantable brain-machine interface (BMI) will require both interpretation of the neurophysiological data being measured and subsequent determination of signals to be delivered back to the brain. Computational models are the heart of the machine of BMI and therefore an essential tool in both of these processes. One approach is to utilize brain biomimetic models (BMMs) to develop and instantiate these algorithms. These then must be connected as hybrid systems in order to interface the BMM with in vivo data acquisition devices and prosthetic devices. The combined system then provides a test bed for neuroprosthetic rehabilitative solutions and medical devices for the repair and enhancement of damaged brain. We propose here a computer network-based design for this purpose, detailing its internal modules and data flows. We describe a prototype implementation of the design, enabling interaction between the Plexon Multichannel Acquisition Processor (MAP) server, a commercial tool to collect signals from microelectrodes implanted in a live subject and a BMM, a NEURON-based model of sensorimotor cortex capable of controlling a virtual arm. The prototype implementation supports an online mode for real-time simulations, as well as an offline mode for data analysis and simulations without real-time constraints, and provides binning operations to discretize continuous input to the BMM and filtering operations for dealing with noise. Evaluation demonstrated that the implementation successfully delivered monkey spiking activity to the BMM through LAN environments, respecting real-time constraints.

Option pricing: a flexible tool to disseminate shared savings contracts.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedberg, Mark W; Buendia, Anthony M; Lauderdale, Katherine E; Hussey, Peter S

2013-08-01

Due to volatility in healthcare costs, shared savings contracts can create systematic financial losses for payers, especially when contracting with smaller providers. To improve the business case for shared savings, we calculated the prices of financial options that payers can "sell" to providers to offset these losses. Using 2009 to 2010 member-level total cost of care data from a large commercial health plan, we calculated option prices by applying a bootstrap simulation procedure. We repeated these simulations for providers of sizes ranging from 500 to 60,000 patients and for shared savings contracts with and without key design features (minimum savings thresholds,bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk) and under assumptions of zero, 1%, and 2% real cost reductions due to the shared savings contracts. Assuming no real cost reduction and a 50% shared savings rate, per patient option prices ranged from $225 (3.1% of overall costs) for 500-patient providers to $23 (0.3%) for 60,000-patient providers. Introducing minimum savings thresholds, bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk reduced these option prices. Option prices were highly sensitive to the magnitude of real cost reductions. If shared savings contracts cause 2% reductions in total costs, option prices fall to zero for all but the smallest providers. Calculating the prices of financial options that protect payers and providers from downside risk can inject flexibility into shared savings contracts, extend such contracts to smaller providers, and clarify the tradeoffs between different contract designs, potentially speeding the dissemination of shared savings.

Operating system for a real-time multiprocessor propulsion system simulator. User's manual

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, G. L.

1985-01-01

The NASA Lewis Research Center is developing and evaluating experimental hardware and software systems to help meet future needs for real-time, high-fidelity simulations of air-breathing propulsion systems. Specifically, the real-time multiprocessor simulator project focuses on the use of multiple microprocessors to achieve the required computing speed and accuracy at relatively low cost. Operating systems for such hardware configurations are generally not available. A real time multiprocessor operating system (RTMPOS) that supports a variety of multiprocessor configurations was developed at Lewis. With some modification, RTMPOS can also support various microprocessors. RTMPOS, by means of menus and prompts, provides the user with a versatile, user-friendly environment for interactively loading, running, and obtaining results from a multiprocessor-based simulator. The menu functions are described and an example simulation session is included to demonstrate the steps required to go from the simulation loading phase to the execution phase.

Parallel Motion Simulation of Large-Scale Real-Time Crowd in a Hierarchical Environmental Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Wang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a parallel real-time crowd simulation method based on a hierarchical environmental model. A dynamical model of the complex environment should be constructed to simulate the state transition and propagation of individual motions. By modeling of a virtual environment where virtual crowds reside, we employ different parallel methods on a topological layer, a path layer and a perceptual layer. We propose a parallel motion path matching method based on the path layer and a parallel crowd simulation method based on the perceptual layer. The large-scale real-time crowd simulation becomes possible with these methods. Numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the methods and results.

High performance real-time flight simulation at NASA Langley

Science.gov (United States)

Cleveland, Jeff I., II

1994-01-01

In order to meet the stringent time-critical requirements for real-time man-in-the-loop flight simulation, computer processing operations must be deterministic and be completed in as short a time as possible. This includes simulation mathematical model computational and data input/output to the simulators. In 1986, in response to increased demands for flight simulation performance, personnel at NASA's Langley Research Center (LaRC), working with the contractor, developed extensions to a standard input/output system to provide for high bandwidth, low latency data acquisition and distribution. The Computer Automated Measurement and Control technology (IEEE standard 595) was extended to meet the performance requirements for real-time simulation. This technology extension increased the effective bandwidth by a factor of ten and increased the performance of modules necessary for simulator communications. This technology is being used by more than 80 leading technological developers in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Included among the commercial applications of this technology are nuclear process control, power grid analysis, process monitoring, real-time simulation, and radar data acquisition. Personnel at LaRC have completed the development of the use of supercomputers for simulation mathematical model computational to support real-time flight simulation. This includes the development of a real-time operating system and the development of specialized software and hardware for the CAMAC simulator network. This work, coupled with the use of an open systems software architecture, has advanced the state of the art in real time flight simulation. The data acquisition technology innovation and experience with recent developments in this technology are described.

Accurate Simulation of 802.11 Indoor Links: A "Bursty" Channel Model Based on Real Measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agüero Ramón

2010-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a novel channel model to be used for simulating indoor wireless propagation environments. An extensive measurement campaign was carried out to assess the performance of different transport protocols over 802.11 links. This enabled us to better adjust our approach, which is based on an autoregressive filter. One of the main advantages of this proposal lies in its ability to reflect the "bursty" behavior which characterizes indoor wireless scenarios, having a great impact on the behavior of upper layer protocols. We compare this channel model, integrated within the Network Simulator (ns-2 platform, with other traditional approaches, showing that it is able to better reflect the real behavior which was empirically assessed.

Modelling Pasture-based Automatic Milking System Herds: Grazeable Forage Options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. R. Islam

2015-05-01

Full Text Available One of the challenges to increase milk production in a large pasture-based herd with an automatic milking system (AMS is to grow forages within a 1-km radius, as increases in walking distance increases milking interval and reduces yield. The main objective of this study was to explore sustainable forage option technologies that can supply high amount of grazeable forages for AMS herds using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM model. Three different basic simulation scenarios (with irrigation were carried out using forage crops (namely maize, soybean and sorghum for the spring-summer period. Subsequent crops in the three scenarios were forage rape over-sown with ryegrass. Each individual simulation was run using actual climatic records for the period from 1900 to 2010. Simulated highest forage yields in maize, soybean and sorghum- (each followed by forage rape-ryegrass based rotations were 28.2, 22.9, and 19.3 t dry matter/ha, respectively. The simulations suggested that the irrigation requirement could increase by up to 18%, 16%, and 17% respectively in those rotations in El-Niño years compared to neutral years. On the other hand, irrigation requirement could increase by up to 25%, 23%, and 32% in maize, soybean and sorghum based rotations in El-Nino years compared to La-Nina years. However, irrigation requirement could decrease by up to 8%, 7%, and 13% in maize, soybean and sorghum based rotations in La-Nina years compared to neutral years. The major implication of this study is that APSIM models have potentials in devising preferred forage options to maximise grazeable forage yield which may create the opportunity to grow more forage in small areas around the AMS which in turn will minimise walking distance and milking interval and thus increase milk production. Our analyses also suggest that simulation analysis may provide decision support during climatic uncertainty.

Modelling Pasture-based Automatic Milking System Herds: Grazeable Forage Options.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, M R; Garcia, S C; Clark, C E F; Kerrisk, K L

2015-05-01

One of the challenges to increase milk production in a large pasture-based herd with an automatic milking system (AMS) is to grow forages within a 1-km radius, as increases in walking distance increases milking interval and reduces yield. The main objective of this study was to explore sustainable forage option technologies that can supply high amount of grazeable forages for AMS herds using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. Three different basic simulation scenarios (with irrigation) were carried out using forage crops (namely maize, soybean and sorghum) for the spring-summer period. Subsequent crops in the three scenarios were forage rape over-sown with ryegrass. Each individual simulation was run using actual climatic records for the period from 1900 to 2010. Simulated highest forage yields in maize, soybean and sorghum- (each followed by forage rape-ryegrass) based rotations were 28.2, 22.9, and 19.3 t dry matter/ha, respectively. The simulations suggested that the irrigation requirement could increase by up to 18%, 16%, and 17% respectively in those rotations in El-Niño years compared to neutral years. On the other hand, irrigation requirement could increase by up to 25%, 23%, and 32% in maize, soybean and sorghum based rotations in El-Nino years compared to La-Nina years. However, irrigation requirement could decrease by up to 8%, 7%, and 13% in maize, soybean and sorghum based rotations in La-Nina years compared to neutral years. The major implication of this study is that APSIM models have potentials in devising preferred forage options to maximise grazeable forage yield which may create the opportunity to grow more forage in small areas around the AMS which in turn will minimise walking distance and milking interval and thus increase milk production. Our analyses also suggest that simulation analysis may provide decision support during climatic uncertainty.

DFSIM with economics: A financial analysis option for the DFSIM Douglas-fir simulator.

Science.gov (United States)

Roger O. Fight; Judith M. Chittester; Gary W. Clendenen

1984-01-01

A modified version of the DFSIM Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. menziesii) growth and yield simulator, DFSIM WITH ECONOMICS, now has an economics option that allows the user to estimate present net worth at the same time a silvicultural regime is simulated. If desired, the economics option will apply a...

Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation of Taiwan earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S.; Liu, Q.; Tromp, J.; Komatitsch, D.; Liang, W.; Huang, B.

2013-12-01

We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 minutes after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 minutes for a 70 sec ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

Real-time hybrid simulation using the convolution integral method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung Jig; Christenson, Richard E; Wojtkiewicz, Steven F; Johnson, Erik A

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a real-time hybrid simulation method that will allow complex systems to be tested within the hybrid test framework by employing the convolution integral (CI) method. The proposed CI method is potentially transformative for real-time hybrid simulation. The CI method can allow real-time hybrid simulation to be conducted regardless of the size and complexity of the numerical model and for numerical stability to be ensured in the presence of high frequency responses in the simulation. This paper presents the general theory behind the proposed CI method and provides experimental verification of the proposed method by comparing the CI method to the current integration time-stepping (ITS) method. Real-time hybrid simulation is conducted in the Advanced Hazard Mitigation Laboratory at the University of Connecticut. A seismically excited two-story shear frame building with a magneto-rheological (MR) fluid damper is selected as the test structure to experimentally validate the proposed method. The building structure is numerically modeled and simulated, while the MR damper is physically tested. Real-time hybrid simulation using the proposed CI method is shown to provide accurate results

InfiniBand-based real-time simulation of HVDC, STATCOM and SVC devices with commercial-off-the-shelf PCs and FPGAs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dufour, C.; Abourida, S.; Belanger, J.; Lapointe, V. [OPAL-RT Technologies Inc., Montreal, PQ (Canada)

2006-07-01

Details of a real-time simulator for large power networks using commercial-off-the-shelf products and an RT-LAB platform were presented. The simulator was designed to realistically simulate bipolar high voltage DC (HVDC) networks transmission systems and to meet large grid simulation challenges. The system was also designed to cope with complex power grid design and validation tests as well as to interface with modern power electronic controllers and protection systems. The platform used Pentium, Xeon or Opteron based PCs and InfiniBand communication fabric for fast inter-PC communications. The real-time PC ran under well-known operating systems while the main control interface used Simulink software. Grid circuits were designed using an SPS interface using an ARTEMIS plug-in. Various model performances were reported. The results of several simulations suggested that InfiniBand communication was slower than shared-memory communication, while STATCOM timing was difficult to compare with the Opteron benchmarks. Results also suggested that XEON CPUs were slower than Opteron counterparts. Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing was also performed with a prototype controller and with a real production controller. It was concluded that a communication time of 5 microseconds was obtained across the 2 PCs. The paper also discussed recent advances in HIL simulation and programming devices. 10 refs., 15 figs.

Real-time maritime scene simulation for ladar sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Christie, Chad L.; Gouthas, Efthimios; Swierkowski, Leszek; Williams, Owen M.

2011-06-01

Continuing interest exists in the development of cost-effective synthetic environments for testing Laser Detection and Ranging (ladar) sensors. In this paper we describe a PC-based system for real-time ladar scene simulation of ships and small boats in a dynamic maritime environment. In particular, we describe the techniques employed to generate range imagery accompanied by passive radiance imagery. Our ladar scene generation system is an evolutionary extension of the VIRSuite infrared scene simulation program and includes all previous features such as ocean wave simulation, the physically-realistic representation of boat and ship dynamics, wake generation and simulation of whitecaps, spray, wake trails and foam. A terrain simulation extension is also under development. In this paper we outline the development, capabilities and limitations of the VIRSuite extensions.

Hydrogen storage for wind parks: A real options evaluation for an optimal investment in more flexibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroniger, Daniel; Madlener, Reinhard

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Economic analysis of investing in H 2 storage for excess wind power production. • Use of real options analysis to account for uncertainty and managerial flexibility. • Hourly profits are simulated for profit-maximizing operation of the storage device. • Revenues by load factor increase, offering minute reserve, temporal arbitrage, H 2 sale. • Power-to-power is unprofitable under current techno-political conditions in Germany. - Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the economic viability of hydrogen storage for excess electricity produced in wind power plants. For the analysis, we define two scenarios (50 MW system with and without re-electrification unit) and apply Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis (ROA) to compute hourly profits under uncertainty regarding wind speed, spot market electricity prices, and call of minute reserve capacity. Hydrogen as a storage medium helps to either (1) increase capacity utilization of the wind park in case of grid disconnection; (2) to offer minute reserve; or (3) to exploit temporal price arbitrage at the electricity spot market; additionally, hydrogen can also be directly sold as a commodity. We find that power-to-power operation is highly uneconomical under current framework conditions in Germany, irrespective of potential energy efficiency gains. Interestingly, due to counterbalancing effects, offshore wind parks are found to have only a modest economic advantage compared to onshore ones. The power-to-fuel plant can be operated profitably (at hydrogen prices of more than 0.36 € m −3 and a 100% utilization of the electrolyzer) if hydrogen is directly marketed instead of used to store and re-generate electrical energy. The ROA recommends investment in a storage device without re-electrification unit beyond an expected project value that is about twice the investment cost of the storage device, a figure which is reduced markedly as conversion efficiency rises, assuming technical change

Control-Oriented Models for Real-Time Simulation of Automotive Transmission Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cavina N.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A control-oriented model of a Dual Clutch Transmission (DCT was developed for real-time Hardware In the Loop (HIL applications, to support model-based development of the DCT controller and to systematically test its performance. The model is an innovative attempt to reproduce the fast dynamics of the actuation system while maintaining a simulation step size large enough for real-time applications. The model comprehends a detailed physical description of hydraulic circuit, clutches, synchronizers and gears, and simplified vehicle and internal combustion engine sub-models. As the oil circulating in the system has a large bulk modulus, the pressure dynamics are very fast, possibly causing instability in a real-time simulation; the same challenge involves the servo valves dynamics, due to the very small masses of the moving elements. Therefore, the hydraulic circuit model has been modified and simplified without losing physical validity, in order to adapt it to the real-time simulation requirements. The results of offline simulations have been compared to on-board measurements to verify the validity of the developed model, which was then implemented in a HIL system and connected to the Transmission Control Unit (TCU. Several tests have been performed on the HIL simulator, to verify the TCU performance: electrical failure tests on sensors and actuators, hydraulic and mechanical failure tests on hydraulic valves, clutches and synchronizers, and application tests comprehending all the main features of the control actions performed by the TCU. Being based on physical laws, in every condition the model simulates a plausible reaction of the system. A test automation procedure has finally been developed to permit the execution of a pattern of tests without the interaction of the user; perfectly repeatable tests can be performed for non-regression verification, allowing the testing of new software releases in fully automatic mode.

Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lin, Tyrone T. [Department of International Business, National Dong Hwa University, 1, Sec. 2, Da Hsueh Road, Shou-Feng, Hualien 974, Taiwan (China)]. E-mail: tjlin@mail.ndhu.edu.tw; Ko, C.-C. [Department of International Trade, Jin Wen Institute of Technology, Taiwan (China); Yeh, H.-N. [Graduate School of Management, Ming Chuan University, Taiwan (China)

2007-04-15

This study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty, and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy. Unlike traditional cost benefit analysis, this work extends the model of [Pindyck, R.S., 2002. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26(9-10), 1677-1697], and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions.

Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Tyrone T.; Ko, C.-C.; Yeh, H.-N.

2007-01-01

This study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty, and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy. Unlike traditional cost benefit analysis, this work extends the model of [Pindyck, R.S., 2002. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26(9-10), 1677-1697], and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions

Use of real options in nuclear power plant valuation in the presence of uncertainty with CO2 emission credit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiriyama, Eriko; Suzuki, Atsuyuki

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study is to analyze the value of an investment in power generation assets that do not emit CO 2 , by using a real option model. This study evaluates the effects of future uncertainty on investment decision-making, by focusing on the uncertainty of CO 2 emission credits [yen/t-CO 2 ] in the fairly near future in Japan. Electric utilities are required to keep plans to prepare for various future uncertainties such as the price of CO 2 emission credits. The real option approach can evaluate the option value of decision-making under uncertainty. This study examined the option value of a power plant [yen/KW] to evaluate the effects of an externality under uncertainty. The results showed that nuclear power would have the most value under the forthcoming CO 2 emission limitations. In order to secure the effectiveness of measures against global warming, we should reconsider the roles of nuclear power plants in Japan. Finally, the real option model is shown to be an effective candidate for a decision-making support tool to deal with problems in energy environmental policy. (author)

Real-time Executive for a basic principle simulator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buerger, L.; Szegi, Zs.; Vegh, E.

1987-09-01

A basic principle simulator for WWER-440 type nuclear power plants is under development in the Central Research Institute for Physics, Budapest. So far the technological models of both to primary and secondary circuits are ready and this paper presents the Real-time Executive and the on-line operating environment which controls the simulator. This executive system contains eight programs and the detailed structure of the data base is presented. The control of the execution of the model programs, their timing and the error recoveries are also discussed. (author) 5 refs

Real-time simulation of MHD/steam power plants by digital parallel processors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, R.M.; Rudberg, D.A.

1981-01-01

Attention is given to a large FORTRAN coded program which simulates the dynamic response of the MHD/steam plant on either a SEL 32/55 or VAX 11/780 computer. The code realizes a detailed first-principle model of the plant. Quite recently, in addition to the VAX 11/780, an AD-10 has been installed for usage as a real-time simulation facility. The parallel processor AD-10 is capable of simulating the MHD/steam plant at several times real-time rates. This is desirable in order to develop rapidly a large data base of varied plant operating conditions. The combined-cycle MHD/steam plant model is discussed, taking into account a number of disadvantages. The disadvantages can be overcome with the aid of an array processor used as an adjunct to the unit processor. The conversion of some computations for real-time simulation is considered

Real gas CFD simulations of hydrogen/oxygen supercritical combustion

Science.gov (United States)

Pohl, S.; Jarczyk, M.; Pfitzner, M.; Rogg, B.

2013-03-01

A comprehensive numerical framework has been established to simulate reacting flows under conditions typically encountered in rocket combustion chambers. The model implemented into the commercial CFD Code ANSYS CFX includes appropriate real gas relations based on the volume-corrected Peng-Robinson (PR) equation of state (EOS) for the flow field and a real gas extension of the laminar flamelet combustion model. The results indicate that the real gas relations have a considerably larger impact on the flow field than on the detailed flame structure. Generally, a realistic flame shape could be achieved for the real gas approach compared to experimental data from the Mascotte test rig V03 operated at ONERA when the differential diffusion processes were only considered within the flame zone.

Boat, wake, and wave real-time simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Świerkowski, Leszek; Gouthas, Efthimios; Christie, Chad L.; Williams, Owen M.

2009-05-01

We describe the extension of our real-time scene generation software VIRSuite to include the dynamic simulation of small boats and their wakes within an ocean environment. Extensive use has been made of the programmabilty available in the current generation of GPUs. We have demonstrated that real-time simulation is feasible, even including such complexities as dynamical calculation of the boat motion, wake generation and calculation of an FFTgenerated sea state.

Efficient option valuation of single and double barrier options

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Milev, Mariyan; Koleva-Petkova, Dessislava; Vladev, Veselin

2017-12-01

In this paper we present an implementation of pricing algorithm for single and double barrier options using Mellin transformation with Maximum Entropy Inversion and its suitability for real-world applications. A detailed analysis of the applied algorithm is accompanied by implementation in C++ that is then compared to existing solutions in terms of efficiency and computational power. We then compare the applied method with existing closed-form solutions and well known methods of pricing barrier options that are based on finite differences.

The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salvador Cruz Rambaud

Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitzing, Lena; Juul, Nina; Drud, Michael; Boomsma, Trine Krogh

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Real options model for wind projects considering investment timing and sizing. • Introducing a capacity constraint in the optimisation. • Addressing several uncertainty factors while still providing analytical solution. • Comparative policy analysis of investment incentives from different support schemes. • Improved quantification of trade-off between fast deployment and large projects. - Abstract: A real options model is developed to evaluate wind energy investments in a realistic and easily applicable way. Considering optimal investment timing and sizing (capacity choice), the model introduces a capacity constraint as part of the optimisation. Several correlated uncertainty factors are combined into a single stochastic process, which allows for analytical (closed-form) solutions. The approach is well suited for quantitative policy analysis, such as the comparison of different support schemes. A case study for offshore wind in the Baltic Sea quantifies differences in investment incentives under feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums and tradable green certificates. Investors can under certificate schemes require up to 3% higher profit margins than under tariffs due to higher variance in profits. Feed-in tariffs may lead to 15% smaller project sizes. This trade-off between faster deployment of smaller projects and slower deployment of larger projects is neglected using traditional net present value approaches. In the analysis of such trade-off, previous real options studies did not consider a capacity constraint, which is here shown to decrease the significance of the effect. The impact on investment incentives also depends on correlations between the underlying stochastic factors. The results may help investors to make informed investment decisions and policy makers to strategically design renewable support and develop tailor-made incentive schemes.

Real-time modelling and simulation of an active power filter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beaulieu, S.; Ouhrouche, M. [Quebec Univ., Chicoutimi, PQ (Canada); Dufour, C.; Allaire, P.F. [Opal RT Technologies Inc., Montreal, PQ (Canada)

2007-07-01

Power electronics converters generate harmonics and cause electromagnetic compatibility problems. Active power filter (APF) technology has advanced to the point that it can compensate for harmonics in electrical networks and provide reactive power and neutral current in AC networks. This paper presented a contribution in the design of a shunt APF for harmonics compensation in real-time simulation using the RT-LAB software package running on a simple personal computer. Real-time simulations were performed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Several high-tech industries have adopted this tool for rapid control prototyping and for Hardware-in-the-Loop applications. The switching signals of the APF are determined by the hysteresis band current controller. The suitable current reference signals were determined by the algorithm based on synchronous reference frame. Real-time simulation runs showed good performance in harmonics compensation, thus satisfying the requirements of IEEE Standard 519-1992. The rate of total harmonic distortion for the source current decreased from 30 to 5 per cent. 12 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs.

Pricing and simulation for real estate index options: Radial basis point interpolation

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pu; Zou, Dong; Wang, Jiayue

2018-06-01

This study employs the meshfree radial basis point interpolation (RBPI) for pricing real estate derivatives contingent on real estate index. This method combines radial and polynomial basis functions, which can guarantee the interpolation scheme with Kronecker property and effectively improve accuracy. An exponential change of variables, a mesh refinement algorithm and the Richardson extrapolation are employed in this study to implement the RBPI. Numerical results are presented to examine the computational efficiency and accuracy of our method.

Real-Time Simulation Technique of a Microgrid Model for DER Penetration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Konstantina Mentesidi

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Comprehensive analysis of Distributed Energy Resources (DER integration requires tools that provide computational power and flexibility. In this context, throughout this paper PHIL simulations are performed to emulate the energy management system of a real microgrid including a diesel synchronous machine and inverter-based sources. Moreover, conventional frequency and voltage droops were incorporated into the respective inverters. The results were verified at the real microgrid installation in the Centre for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES premises. This research work is divided into two steps: A Real time in RSCAD/RTDS and Power Hardware-in-the-Loop (PHIL simulations where the diesel generator´s active power droop control is evaluated, the battery inverter´s droop curves are simulated and the load sharing for parallel operation of the system´s generation units is examined. B microgrid experiments during which various tests were executed concerning the diesel generator and the battery inverters in order to examine their dynamic operation within the LV islanded power system.

Accounting for large deformations in real-time simulations of soft tissues based on reduced-order models.

Science.gov (United States)

Niroomandi, S; Alfaro, I; Cueto, E; Chinesta, F

2012-01-01

Model reduction techniques have shown to constitute a valuable tool for real-time simulation in surgical environments and other fields. However, some limitations, imposed by real-time constraints, have not yet been overcome. One of such limitations is the severe limitation in time (established in 500Hz of frequency for the resolution) that precludes the employ of Newton-like schemes for solving non-linear models as the ones usually employed for modeling biological tissues. In this work we present a technique able to deal with geometrically non-linear models, based on the employ of model reduction techniques, together with an efficient non-linear solver. Examples of the performance of the technique over some examples will be given. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real option valuation of free destination in long-term liquefied natural gas supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yepes Rodriguez, Ramon

2008-01-01

This paper presents a real option model for the valuation of destination flexibility in long-term LNG supplies. Stochastic price dynamics in the different markets is modelled through geometric Brownian motion processes. Mean reversion is considered as well as correlation between markets, but instead of the usual correlation in return shocks, a price convergence term is introduced representing the arbitrage streams between markets. Model parameters are estimated from market data on LNG prices by maximum log-likelihood. The goodness of the fit for the proposed model is tested as well as for two alternative models. Confidence intervals for the parameters are given. Results for the model are calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. Frequency distributions for the main results are plotted. The effect of the main parameters of the model is studied (i.e. price volatilities, price convergence, initial prices in the markets, mean reversion, extra transportation costs, number of alternative markets). The value of destination flexibility is found to be an important share of the value of LNG

Real-time simulation of contact and cutting of heterogeneous soft-tissues.

Science.gov (United States)

Courtecuisse, Hadrien; Allard, Jérémie; Kerfriden, Pierre; Bordas, Stéphane P A; Cotin, Stéphane; Duriez, Christian

2014-02-01

This paper presents a numerical method for interactive (real-time) simulations, which considerably improves the accuracy of the response of heterogeneous soft-tissue models undergoing contact, cutting and other topological changes. We provide an integrated methodology able to deal both with the ill-conditioning issues associated with material heterogeneities, contact boundary conditions which are one of the main sources of inaccuracies, and cutting which is one of the most challenging issues in interactive simulations. Our approach is based on an implicit time integration of a non-linear finite element model. To enable real-time computations, we propose a new preconditioning technique, based on an asynchronous update at low frequency. The preconditioner is not only used to improve the computation of the deformation of the tissues, but also to simulate the contact response of homogeneous and heterogeneous bodies with the same accuracy. We also address the problem of cutting the heterogeneous structures and propose a method to update the preconditioner according to the topological modifications. Finally, we apply our approach to three challenging demonstrators: (i) a simulation of cataract surgery (ii) a simulation of laparoscopic hepatectomy (iii) a brain tumor surgery. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

TRSM-a thermal-hydraulic real-time simulation model for PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou Weichang

1997-01-01

TRSM (a Thermal-hydraulic Real-time Simulation Model) has been developed for PWR real-time simulation and best-estimate prediction of normal operating and abnormal accident conditions. It is a non-equilibrium two phase flow thermal-hydraulic model based on five basic conservation equations. A drift flux model is used to account for the unequal velocities of liquid and gaseous mixture, with or without the presence of the noncondensibles. Critical flow models are applied for break flow and valve flow calculations. A 5-regime two phase heat convection model is applied for clad-to-coolant as well as fluid-to-tubing heat transfer. A rigorous reactor coolant pump model is used to calculate the pressure drop and rise for the suction and discharge ends with complete pump characteristics curves included. The TRSM model has been adapted in the full-scale training simulator of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant 300 MW unit to simulate the thermal-hydraulic performance of the NSSS. The simulation results of a cold leg LOCA and a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident are presented

Implementation of real-time energy management strategy based on reinforcement learning for hybrid electric vehicles and simulation validation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Zehui; Zou, Yuan; Liu, Teng

2017-01-01

To further improve the fuel economy of series hybrid electric tracked vehicles, a reinforcement learning (RL)-based real-time energy management strategy is developed in this paper. In order to utilize the statistical characteristics of online driving schedule effectively, a recursive algorithm for the transition probability matrix (TPM) of power-request is derived. The reinforcement learning (RL) is applied to calculate and update the control policy at regular time, adapting to the varying driving conditions. A facing-forward powertrain model is built in detail, including the engine-generator model, battery model and vehicle dynamical model. The robustness and adaptability of real-time energy management strategy are validated through the comparison with the stationary control strategy based on initial transition probability matrix (TPM) generated from a long naturalistic driving cycle in the simulation. Results indicate that proposed method has better fuel economy than stationary one and is more effective in real-time control.

Implementation of real-time energy management strategy based on reinforcement learning for hybrid electric vehicles and simulation validation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zehui Kong

Full Text Available To further improve the fuel economy of series hybrid electric tracked vehicles, a reinforcement learning (RL-based real-time energy management strategy is developed in this paper. In order to utilize the statistical characteristics of online driving schedule effectively, a recursive algorithm for the transition probability matrix (TPM of power-request is derived. The reinforcement learning (RL is applied to calculate and update the control policy at regular time, adapting to the varying driving conditions. A facing-forward powertrain model is built in detail, including the engine-generator model, battery model and vehicle dynamical model. The robustness and adaptability of real-time energy management strategy are validated through the comparison with the stationary control strategy based on initial transition probability matrix (TPM generated from a long naturalistic driving cycle in the simulation. Results indicate that proposed method has better fuel economy than stationary one and is more effective in real-time control.

A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumbaroglu, Guerkan; Madlener, Reinhard; Demirel, Mustafa

2008-01-01

This study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis. The model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year-by-year basis, thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies. Price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices. Demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price-sensitive, as the electricity market deregulation proceeds, reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes (such as time-of-use pricing, unbundled electricity services, and choice of supplier). The empirical analysis is based on data for the Turkish electricity supply industry. Apart from general implications for policy-making, it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

ATLAS Simulation using Real Data: Embedding and Overlay

Science.gov (United States)

Haas, Andrew; ATLAS Collaboration

2017-10-01

For some physics processes studied with the ATLAS detector, a more accurate simulation in some respects can be achieved by including real data into simulated events, with substantial potential improvements in the CPU, disk space, and memory usage of the standard simulation configuration, at the cost of significant database and networking challenges. Real proton-proton background events can be overlaid (at the detector digitization output stage) on a simulated hard-scatter process, to account for pileup background (from nearby bunch crossings), cavern background, and detector noise. A similar method is used to account for the large underlying event from heavy ion collisions, rather than directly simulating the full collision. Embedding replaces the muons found in Z→μμ decays in data with simulated taus at the same 4-momenta, thus preserving the underlying event and pileup from the original data event. In all these cases, care must be taken to exactly match detector conditions (beamspot, magnetic fields, alignments, dead sensors, etc.) between the real data event and the simulation. We will discuss the status of these overlay and embedding techniques within ATLAS software and computing.

An Example-Based Brain MRI Simulation Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Qing; Roy, Snehashis; Jog, Amod; Pham, Dzung L

2015-02-21

The simulation of magnetic resonance (MR) images plays an important role in the validation of image analysis algorithms such as image segmentation, due to lack of sufficient ground truth in real MR images. Previous work on MRI simulation has focused on explicitly modeling the MR image formation process. However, because of the overwhelming complexity of MR acquisition these simulations must involve simplifications and approximations that can result in visually unrealistic simulated images. In this work, we describe an example-based simulation framework, which uses an "atlas" consisting of an MR image and its anatomical models derived from the hard segmentation. The relationships between the MR image intensities and its anatomical models are learned using a patch-based regression that implicitly models the physics of the MR image formation. Given the anatomical models of a new brain, a new MR image can be simulated using the learned regression. This approach has been extended to also simulate intensity inhomogeneity artifacts based on the statistical model of training data. Results show that the example based MRI simulation method is capable of simulating different image contrasts and is robust to different choices of atlas. The simulated images resemble real MR images more than simulations produced by a physics-based model.

45 CFR 1306.33 - Home-based program option.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Home-based program option. 1306.33 Section 1306.33... PROGRAM HEAD START STAFFING REQUIREMENTS AND PROGRAM OPTIONS Head Start Program Options § 1306.33 Home-based program option. (a) Grantees implementing a home-based program option must: (1) Provide one home...

Numerical simulation of a cabin ventilation subsystem in a space station oriented real-time system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zezheng QIU

2017-12-01

Full Text Available An environment control and life support system (ECLSS is an important system in a space station. The ECLSS is a typical complex system, and the real-time simulation technology can help to accelerate its research process by using distributed hardware in a loop simulation system. An implicit fixed time step numerical integration method is recommended for a real-time simulation system with time-varying parameters. However, its computational efficiency is too low to satisfy the real-time data interaction, especially for the complex ECLSS system running on a PC cluster. The instability problem of an explicit method strongly limits its application in the ECLSS real-time simulation although it has a high computational efficiency. This paper proposes an improved numerical simulation method to overcome the instability problem based on the explicit Euler method. A temperature and humidity control subsystem (THCS is firstly established, and its numerical stability is analyzed by using the eigenvalue estimation theory. Furthermore, an adaptive operator is proposed to avoid the potential instability problem. The stability and accuracy of the proposed method are investigated carefully. Simulation results show that this proposed method can provide a good way for some complex time-variant systems to run their real-time simulation on a PC cluster. Keywords: Numerical integration method, Real-time simulation, Stability, THCS, Time-variant system

Numerical simulation of real-world flows

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hayase, Toshiyuki, E-mail: hayase@ifs.tohoku.ac.jp [Institute of Fluid Science, Tohoku University, 2-1-1 Katahira, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-8577 (Japan)

2015-10-15

Obtaining real flow information is important in various fields, but is a difficult issue because measurement data are usually limited in time and space, and computational results usually do not represent the exact state of real flows. Problems inherent in the realization of numerical simulation of real-world flows include the difficulty in representing exact initial and boundary conditions and the difficulty in representing unstable flow characteristics. This article reviews studies dealing with these problems. First, an overview of basic flow measurement methodologies and measurement data interpolation/approximation techniques is presented. Then, studies on methods of integrating numerical simulation and measurement, namely, four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var), Kalman filters (KFs), state observers, etc are discussed. The first problem is properly solved by these integration methodologies. The second problem can be partially solved with 4D-Var in which only initial and boundary conditions are control parameters. If an appropriate control parameter capable of modifying the dynamical structure of the model is included in the formulation of 4D-Var, unstable modes are properly suppressed and the second problem is solved. The state observer and KFs also solve the second problem by modifying mathematical models to stabilize the unstable modes of the original dynamical system by applying feedback signals. These integration methodologies are now applied in simulation of real-world flows in a wide variety of research fields. Examples are presented for basic fluid dynamics and applications in meteorology, aerospace, medicine, etc. (topical review)

3D printed simulation models based on real patient situations for hands-on practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Kröger, E; Dekiff, M; Dirksen, D

2017-11-01

During the last few years, the curriculum of many dentistry schools in Germany has been reorganised. Two key aspects of the applied changes are the integration of up-to-date teaching methods and the promotion of interdisciplinarity. To support these efforts, an approach to fabricating individualised simulation models for hands-on courses employing 3D printing is presented. The models are based on real patients, thus providing students a more realistic preparation for real clinical situations. As a wide variety of dental procedures can be implemented, the simulation models can also contribute to a more interdisciplinary dental education. The data used for the construction of the models were acquired by 3D surface scanning. The data were further processed with 3D modelling software. Afterwards, the models were fabricated by 3D printing with the PolyJet technique. Three models serve as examples: a prosthodontic model for training veneer preparation, a conservative model for practicing dental bonding and an interdisciplinary model featuring carious teeth and an insufficient crown. The third model was evaluated in a hands-on course with 22 fourth-year dental students. The students answered a questionnaire and gave their personal opinion. Whilst the concept of the model received very positive feedback, some aspects of the implementation were criticised. We discuss these observations and suggest ways for further improvement. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Psychophysiological Assessment in Pilots Performing Challenging Simulated and Real Flight Maneuvers.

Science.gov (United States)

Johannes, Bernd; Rothe, Stefanie; Gens, André; Westphal, Soeren; Birkenfeld, Katja; Mulder, Edwin; Rittweger, Jörn; Ledderhos, Carla

2017-09-01

The objective assessment of psychophysiological arousal during challenging flight maneuvers is of great interest to aerospace medicine, but remains a challenging task. In the study presented here, a vector-methodological approach was used which integrates different psychophysiological variables, yielding an integral arousal index called the Psychophysiological Arousal Value (PAV). The arousal levels of 15 male pilots were assessed during predetermined, well-defined flight maneuvers performed under simulated and real flight conditions. The physiological data, as expected, revealed inter- and intra-individual differences for the various measurement conditions. As indicated by the PAV, air-to-air refueling (AAR) turned out to be the most challenging task. In general, arousal levels were comparable between simulator and real flight conditions. However, a distinct difference was observed when the pilots were divided by instructors into two groups based on their proficiency in AAR with AWACS (AAR-Novices vs. AAR-Professionals). AAR-Novices had on average more than 2000 flight hours on other aircrafts. They showed higher arousal reactions to AAR in real flight (contact: PAV score 8.4 ± 0.37) than under simulator conditions (7.1 ± 0.30), whereas AAR-Professionals did not (8.5 ± 0.46 vs. 8.8 ± 0.80). The psychophysiological arousal value assessment was tested in field measurements, yielding quantifiable arousal differences between proficiency groups of pilots during simulated and real flight conditions. The method used in this study allows an evaluation of the psychophysiological cost during a certain flying performance and thus is possibly a valuable tool for objectively evaluating the actual skill status of pilots.Johannes B, Rothe S, Gens A, Westphal S, Birkenfeld K, Mulder E, Rittweger J, Ledderhos C. Psychophysiological assessment in pilots performing challenging simulated and real flight maneuvers. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(9):834-840.

A real-options analysis of wine grape farming in north west Victoria

OpenAIRE

Seyoum, Emayenesh; Chan, Chris

2012-01-01

This paper reports a use of a real-options valuation methodology to analyse wine grape farm investment under price and yield uncertainty. Revenue levels to incentivise entry and exit were calculated for three different sizes of wine grape farms in North West Victoria. The modelling identified lower exit and higher entry triggers than indicated by conventional net present value calculation. The wide gap of estimated indeterminacy in farm investment highlights the intertwined influence of numer...

A comprehensive cloud-based real-time simulation framework for oblivious power routing in clusters of DC microgrids

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amini, M. Hadi; Boroojeni, Kianoosh G.; Dragicevic, Tomislav

2017-01-01

of microgrids. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm has been verified in MATLAB simulation. Furthermore, we propose a comprehensive simulation platform for further implementation of the proposed strategy on OPAL-RT real-time simulator system (RTDS). In our proposed platform, the communication path...

Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Real Options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Havlíček

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The first part of this paper describes the nuclear fuel cycle. It is divided into three parts. The first part, called Front-End, covers all activities connected with fuel procurement and fabrication. The middle part of the cycle includes fuel reload design activities and the operation of the fuel in the reactor. Back-End comprises all activities ensuring safe separation of spent fuel and radioactive waste from the environment. The individual stages of the fuel cycle are strongly interrelated. Overall economic optimization is very difficult. Generally, NPV is used for an economic evaluation in the nuclear fuel cycle. However the high volatility of uranium prices in the Front-End, and the large uncertainty of both economic and technical parameters in the Back-End, make the use of NPV difficult. The real option method is able to evaluate the value added by flexibility of decision making by a company under conditions of uncertainty. The possibility of applying this method to the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation is studied. 

Real-Time Model and Simulation Architecture for Half- and Full-Bridge Modular Multilevel Converters

Science.gov (United States)

Ashourloo, Mojtaba

This work presents an equivalent model and simulation architecture for real-time electromagnetic transient analysis of either half-bridge or full-bridge modular multilevel converter (MMC) with 400 sub-modules (SMs) per arm. The proposed CPU/FPGA-based architecture is optimized for the parallel implementation of the presented MMC model on the FPGA and is beneficiary of a high-throughput floating-point computational engine. The developed real-time simulation architecture is capable of simulating MMCs with 400 SMs per arm at 825 nanoseconds. To address the difficulties of the sorting process implementation, a modified Odd-Even Bubble sorting is presented in this work. The comparison of the results under various test scenarios reveals that the proposed real-time simulator is representing the system responses in the same way of its corresponding off-line counterpart obtained from the PSCAD/EMTDC program.

Real Time Animation of Trees Based on BBSC in Computer Games

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuefeng Ao

2009-01-01

Full Text Available That researchers in the field of computer games usually find it is difficult to simulate the motion of actual 3D model trees lies in the fact that the tree model itself has very complicated structure, and many sophisticated factors need to be considered during the simulation. Though there are some works on simulating 3D tree and its motion, few of them are used in computer games due to the high demand for real-time in computer games. In this paper, an approach of animating trees in computer games based on a novel tree model representation—Ball B-Spline Curves (BBSCs are proposed. By taking advantage of the good features of the BBSC-based model, physical simulation of the motion of leafless trees with wind blowing becomes easier and more efficient. The method can generate realistic 3D tree animation in real-time, which meets the high requirement for real time in computer games.

Agent-based Simulation of the Maritime Domain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Vaněk

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent based simulation platform is introduced that focuses on legitimate and illegitimate aspects of maritime traffic, mainly on intercontinental transport through piracy afflicted areas. The extensible architecture presented here comprises several modules controlling the simulation and the life-cycle of the agents, analyzing the simulation output and visualizing the entire simulated domain. The simulation control module is initialized by various configuration scenarios to simulate various real-world situations, such as a pirate ambush, coordinated transit through a transport corridor, or coastal fishing and local traffic. The environmental model provides a rich set of inputs for agents that use the geo-spatial data and the vessel operational characteristics for their reasoning. The agent behavior model based on finite state machines together with planning algorithms allows complex expression of agent behavior, so the resulting simulation output can serve as a substitution for real world data from the maritime domain.

Simulation-based medical teaching and learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdulmohsen H Al-Elq

2010-01-01

Full Text Available One of the most important steps in curriculum development is the introduction of simulation- based medical teaching and learning. Simulation is a generic term that refers to an artificial representation of a real world process to achieve educational goals through experiential learning. Simulation based medical education is defined as any educational activity that utilizes simulation aides to replicate clinical scenarios. Although medical simulation is relatively new, simulation has been used for a long time in other high risk professions such as aviation. Medical simulation allows the acquisition of clinical skills through deliberate practice rather than an apprentice style of learning. Simulation tools serve as an alternative to real patients. A trainee can make mistakes and learn from them without the fear of harming the patient. There are different types and classification of simulators and their cost vary according to the degree of their resemblance to the reality, or ′fidelity′. Simulation- based learning is expensive. However, it is cost-effective if utilized properly. Medical simulation has been found to enhance clinical competence at the undergraduate and postgraduate levels. It has also been found to have many advantages that can improve patient safety and reduce health care costs through the improvement of the medical provider′s competencies. The objective of this narrative review article is to highlight the importance of simulation as a new teaching method in undergraduate and postgraduate education.

Understanding the advantages of open innovation practices in corporate venturing in terms of real options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vanhaverbeke, W.P.M.; Vrande, van de V.J.A.; Chesbrough, H.

2008-01-01

Part of the advantages of using open innovation (compared to closed innovation) in corporate venturing can be explained by applying the real options approach. Open innovation in risk-laden activities such as corporate venturing has the following advantages: (i) benefits from early involvement in new

Implementation of the frequency dependent line model in a real-time power system simulator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reynaldo Iracheta-Cortez

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper is described the implementation of the frequency-dependent line model (FD-Line in a real-time digital power system simulator. The main goal with such development is to describe a general procedure to incorporate new realistic models of power system components in modern real-time simulators based on the Electromagnetic Transients Program (EMTP. In this procedure are described, firstly, the steps to obtain the time domain solution of the differential equations that models the electromagnetic behavior in multi-phase transmission lines with frequency dependent parameters. After, the algorithmic solution of the FD-Line model is implemented in Simulink environment, through an S-function programmed in C language, for running off-line simulations of electromagnetic transients. This implementation allows the free assembling of the FD Line model with any element of the Power System Blockset library and also, it can be used to build any network topology. The main advantage of having a power network built in Simulink is that can be executed in real-time by means of the commercial eMEGAsim simulator. Finally, several simulation cases are presented to validate the accuracy and the real-time performance of the FD-Line model.

32 CFR 644.168 - Exercise of options.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Exercise of options. 644.168 Section 644.168... ESTATE HANDBOOK Acquisition Procurement of Options Prior to Real Estate Directives (military) § 644.168 Exercise of options. Upon issuance of a real estate directive for acquisition of the optioned real property...

Parametric Room Acoustic workflows with real-time acoustic simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Parigi, Dario

2017-01-01

The paper investigates and assesses the opportunities that real-time acoustic simulation offer to engage in parametric acoustics workflow and to influence architectural designs from early design stages......The paper investigates and assesses the opportunities that real-time acoustic simulation offer to engage in parametric acoustics workflow and to influence architectural designs from early design stages...

Energy Recovery from the Organic Fraction of Municipal Solid Waste: A Real Options-Based Facility Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luigi Ranieri

2018-01-01

Full Text Available During the last years, due to the strict regulations on waste landfilling, anaerobic digestion (AD of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW is increasingly considered a sustainable alternative for waste stabilization and energy recovery. AD can reduce the volume of OFMSW going to landfill and produce, at the same time, biogas and compost, all at a profit. The uncertainty about the collected quantity of organic fraction, however, may undermine the economic-financial sustainability of such plants. While the flexibility characterizing some AD technologies may prove very valuable in uncertain contexts since it allows adapting plant capacity to changing environments, the investment required for building flexible systems is generally higher than the investment for dedicated equipment. Hence, an adequate justification of investments in these flexible systems is needed. This paper presents the results of a study aimed at investigating how different technologies may perform from technical, economic and financial standpoints, in presence of an uncertain organic fraction quantity to be treated. Focusing on two AD treatment plant configurations characterized by a technological process with different degree of flexibility, a real options-based model is developed and then applied to the case of the urban waste management system of the Metropolitan Area of Bari (Italy. Results show the importance of pricing the flexibility of treatment plants, which becomes a critical factor in presence of an uncertain organic fraction. Hence, it has to be taken into consideration in the design phase of these plants.

Simulation model for transcervical laryngeal injection providing real-time feedback.

Science.gov (United States)

Ainsworth, Tiffiny A; Kobler, James B; Loan, Gregory J; Burns, James A

2014-12-01

This study aimed to develop and evaluate a model for teaching transcervical laryngeal injections. A 3-dimensional printer was used to create a laryngotracheal framework based on de-identified computed tomography images of a human larynx. The arytenoid cartilages and intrinsic laryngeal musculature were created in silicone from clay casts and thermoplastic molds. The thyroarytenoid (TA) muscle was created with electrically conductive silicone using metallic filaments embedded in silicone. Wires connected TA muscles to an electrical circuit incorporating a cell phone and speaker. A needle electrode completed the circuit when inserted in the TA during simulated injection, providing real-time feedback of successful needle placement by producing an audible sound. Face validation by the senior author confirmed appropriate tactile feedback and anatomical realism. Otolaryngologists pilot tested the model and completed presimulation and postsimulation questionnaires. The high-fidelity simulation model provided tactile and audio feedback during needle placement, simulating transcervical vocal fold injections. Otolaryngology residents demonstrated higher comfort levels with transcervical thyroarytenoid injection on postsimulation questionnaires. This is the first study to describe a simulator for developing transcervical vocal fold injection skills. The model provides real-time tactile and auditory feedback that aids in skill acquisition. Otolaryngologists reported increased confidence with transcervical injection after using the simulator. © The Author(s) 2014.

High correlation between performance on a virtual-reality simulator and real-life cataract surgery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Ann Sofia Skou; Smith, Phillip; Subhi, Yousif

2017-01-01

-tracking software of cataract surgical videos with a Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.70 (p = 0.017). CONCLUSION: Performance on the EyeSi simulator is significantly and highly correlated to real-life surgical performance. However, it is recommended that performance assessments are made using multiple data......PURPOSE: To investigate the correlation in performance of cataract surgery between a virtual-reality simulator and real-life surgery using two objective assessment tools with evidence of validity. METHODS: Cataract surgeons with varying levels of experience were included in the study. All...... antitremor training, forceps training, bimanual training, capsulorhexis and phaco divide and conquer. RESULTS: Eleven surgeons were enrolled. After a designated warm-up period, the proficiency-based test on the EyeSi simulator was strongly correlated to real-life performance measured by motion...

Development and operation of a real-time simulation at the NASA Ames Vertical Motion Simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Sweeney, Christopher; Sheppard, Shirin; Chetelat, Monique

1993-01-01

The Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) facility at the NASA Ames Research Center combines the largest vertical motion capability in the world with a flexible real-time operating system allowing research to be conducted quickly and effectively. Due to the diverse nature of the aircraft simulated and the large number of simulations conducted annually, the challenge for the simulation engineer is to develop an accurate real-time simulation in a timely, efficient manner. The SimLab facility and the software tools necessary for an operating simulation will be discussed. Subsequent sections will describe the development process through operation of the simulation; this includes acceptance of the model, validation, integration and production phases.

Implementation of a Real-Time Microgrid Simulation Platform Based on Centralized and Distributed Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omid Abrishambaf

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Demand response and distributed generation are key components of power systems. Several challenges are raised at both technical and business model levels for integration of those resources in smart grids and microgrids. The implementation of a distribution network as a test bed can be difficult and not cost-effective; using computational modeling is not sufficient for producing realistic results. Real-time simulation allows us to validate the business model’s impact at the technical level. This paper comprises a platform supporting the real-time simulation of a microgrid connected to a larger distribution network. The implemented platform allows us to use both centralized and distributed energy resource management. Using an optimization model for the energy resource operation, a virtual power player manages all the available resources. Then, the simulation platform allows us to technically validate the actual implementation of the requested demand reduction in the scope of demand response programs. The case study has 33 buses, 220 consumers, and 68 distributed generators. It demonstrates the impact of demand response events, also performing resource management in the presence of an energy shortage.

Real-Time and Real-Fast Performance of General-Purpose and Real-Time Operating Systems in Multithreaded Physical Simulation of Complex Mechanical Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Garre

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Physical simulation is a valuable tool in many fields of engineering for the tasks of design, prototyping, and testing. General-purpose operating systems (GPOS are designed for real-fast tasks, such as offline simulation of complex physical models that should finish as soon as possible. Interfacing hardware at a given rate (as in a hardware-in-the-loop test requires instead maximizing time determinism, for which real-time operating systems (RTOS are designed. In this paper, real-fast and real-time performance of RTOS and GPOS are compared when simulating models of high complexity with large time steps. This type of applications is usually present in the automotive industry and requires a good trade-off between real-fast and real-time performance. The performance of an RTOS and a GPOS is compared by running a tire model scalable on the number of degrees-of-freedom and parallel threads. The benchmark shows that the GPOS present better performance in real-fast runs but worse in real-time due to nonexplicit task switches and to the latency associated with interprocess communication (IPC and task switch.

ATLAS Simulation using Real Data: Embedding and Overlay

CERN Document Server

Haas, Andy; The ATLAS collaboration

2016-01-01

For some physics processes studied with the ATLAS detector, a more accurate simulation in some respects can be achieved by including real data into simulated events, with substantial potential improvements in the CPU, disk space, and memory usage of the standard simulation configuration, at the cost of significant database and networking challenges. Real proton-proton background events can be overlaid (at the detector digitization output stage) on a simulated hard-scatter process, to account for pileup background (from nearby bunch crossings), cavern background, and detector noise. A similar method is used to account for the large underlying event from heavy ion collisions, rather than directly simulating the full collision. Embedding replaces the muons found in Z->mumu decays in data with simulated taus at the same 4-momenta, thus preserving the underlying event and pileup from the original data event. In all these cases, care must be taken to exactly match detector conditions (beamspot, magnetic fields, ali...

ATLAS simulation using real data: Embedding and overlay

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00053405; The ATLAS collaboration

2017-01-01

For some physics processes studied with the ATLAS detector, a more accurate simulation in some respects can be achieved by including real data into simulated events, with substantial potential improvements in the CPU, disk space, and memory usage of the standard simulation configuration, at the cost of significant database and networking challenges. Real proton-proton background events can be overlaid (at the detector digitization output stage) on a simulated hard-scatter process, to account for pileup background (from nearby bunch crossings), cavern background, and detector noise. A similar method is used to account for the large underlying event from heavy ion collisions, rather than directly simulating the full collision. Embedding replaces the muons found in Z→μμ decays in data with simulated taus at the same 4-momenta, thus preserving the underlying event and pileup from the original data event. In all these cases, care must be taken to exactly match detector conditions (beamspot, magnetic fields, al...

Decentralized real-time simulation of forest machines

Science.gov (United States)

Freund, Eckhard; Adam, Frank; Hoffmann, Katharina; Rossmann, Juergen; Kraemer, Michael; Schluse, Michael

2000-10-01

To develop realistic forest machine simulators is a demanding task. A useful simulator has to provide a close- to-reality simulation of the forest environment as well as the simulation of the physics of the vehicle. Customers demand a highly realistic three dimensional forestry landscape and the realistic simulation of the complex motion of the vehicle even in rough terrain in order to be able to use the simulator for operator training under close-to- reality conditions. The realistic simulation of the vehicle, especially with the driver's seat mounted on a motion platform, greatly improves the effect of immersion into the virtual reality of a simulated forest and the achievable level of education of the driver. Thus, the connection of the real control devices of forest machines to the simulation system has to be supported, i.e. the real control devices like the joysticks or the board computer system to control the crane, the aggregate etc. Beyond, the fusion of the board computer system and the simulation system is realized by means of sensors, i.e. digital and analog signals. The decentralized system structure allows several virtual reality systems to evaluate and visualize the information of the control devices and the sensors. So, while the driver is practicing, the instructor can immerse into the same virtual forest to monitor the session from his own viewpoint. In this paper, we are describing the realized structure as well as the necessary software and hardware components and application experiences.

What is the best way to enter Florida's real estate market in today's economy? : This may serve as a simple guide which offers options for a startup real estate company to enter any real estate market

OpenAIRE

Bryan, Paul

2011-01-01

P&I International real estate (PIIRE for short) is a real estate company which left the Florida real estate market in 2006. PIIRE is now seeking the best method to re-enter the Florida’s real estate market within the near future. The owners are seeking the best method to re-establish their real estate business in Florida. At this point the location in Florida has not yet been determined. The determining factors include financing options, business type entry mode, and governmental issues. ...

45 CFR 1306.32 - Center-based program option.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Center-based program option. 1306.32 Section 1306... START PROGRAM HEAD START STAFFING REQUIREMENTS AND PROGRAM OPTIONS Head Start Program Options § 1306.32 Center-based program option. (a) Class size. (1) Head Start classes must be staffed by a teacher and an...

Stress in student teachers during real and simulated, standardized lectures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Houtman, I.L.D.; Bakker, F.C.

1987-01-01

This study describes and compares the intensity of stress responses, both psychologically and physiologically, to a real and a simulated stressor. The real stressor involved lecturing to a class of students in a post-secondary institution during a practice teaching course. The simulated stressor was

Towards Online Visualization and Interactive Monitoring of Real-Time CFD Simulations on Commodity Hardware

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nils Koliha

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Real-time rendering in the realm of computational fluid dynamics (CFD in particular and scientific high performance computing (HPC in general is a comparably young field of research, as the complexity of most problems with practical relevance is too high for a real-time numerical simulation. However, recent advances in HPC and the development of very efficient numerical techniques allow running first optimized numerical simulations in or near real-time, which in return requires integrated and optimized visualization techniques that do not affect performance. In this contribution, we present concepts, implementation details and several application examples of a minimally-invasive, efficient visualization tool for the interactive monitoring of 2D and 3D turbulent flow simulations on commodity hardware. The numerical simulations are conducted with ELBE, an efficient lattice Boltzmann environment based on NVIDIA CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture, which provides optimized numerical kernels for 2D and 3D computational fluid dynamics with fluid-structure interactions and turbulence.

Real-Time ECG Simulation for Hybrid Mock Circulatory Loops.

Science.gov (United States)

Korn, Leonie; Rüschen, Daniel; Zander, Niklas; Leonhardt, Steffen; Walter, Marian

2018-02-01

Classically, mock circulatory loops only simulate mechanical properties of the circulation. To connect the hydraulic world with electrophysiology, we present a real-time electrical activity model of the heart and show how to integrate this model into a real-time mock loop simulation. The model incorporates a predefined conduction pathway and a simplified volume conductor to solve the bidomain equations and the forward problem of electrocardiography, resulting in a physiological simulation of the electrocardiogram (ECG) at arbitrary electrode positions. A complete physiological simulation of the heart's excitation would be too CPU intensive. Thus, in our model, complexity was reduced to allow real-time simulation of ECG-triggered medical systems in vitro; this decreases time and cost in the development process. Conversely, the presented model can still be adapted to various pathologies by locally changing the properties of the heart's conduction pathway. To simulate the ECG, the heart is divided into suitable areas, which are innervated by the hierarchically structured conduction system. To distinguish different cardiac regions, a segmentation of the heart was performed. In these regions, Prim's algorithm was applied to identify the directed minimal spanning trees for conduction orientation. Each node of the tree was assigned to a cardiac action potential generated by its hybrid automaton to represent the heart's conduction system by the spatial distribution of action potentials. To generate the ECG output, the bidomain equations were implemented and a simple model of the volume conductor of the body was used to solve the forward problem of electrocardiography. As a result, the model simulates potentials at arbitrary electrode positions in real-time. To verify the developed real-time ECG model, measurements were made within a hybrid mock circulatory loop, including a simple ECG-triggered ventricular assist device control. The model's potential value is to simulate

Innovative real CSF leak simulation model for rhinology training: human cadaveric design.

Science.gov (United States)

AlQahtani, Abdulaziz A; Albathi, Abeer A; Alhammad, Othman M; Alrabie, Abdulkarim S

2018-04-01

To study the feasibility of designing a human cadaveric simulation model of real CSF leak for rhinology training. The laboratory investigation took place at the surgical academic center of Prince Sultan Military Medical City between 2016 and 2017. Five heads of human cadaveric specimens were cannulated into the intradural space through two frontal bone holes. Fluorescein-dyed fluid was injected intracranialy, then endoscopic endonasal iatrogenic skull base defect was created with observation of fluid leak, followed by skull base reconstruction. The outcome measures included subjective assessment of integrity of the design, the ability of creating real CSF leak in multiple site of skull base and the possibility of watertight closure by various surgical techniques. The fluid filled the intradural space in all specimens without spontaneous leak from skull base or extra sinus areas. Successfully, we demonstrated fluid leak from all areas after iatrogenic defect in the cribriform plate, fovea ethmoidalis, planum sphenoidale sellar and clival regions. Watertight closure was achieved in all defects using different reconstruction techniques (overly, underlay and gasket seal closure). The design is simulating the real patient with CSF leak. It has potential in the learning process of acquiring and maintaining the surgical skills of skull base reconstruction before direct involvement of the patient. This model needs further evaluation and competence measurement as training tools in rhinology training.

REAL AND SIMULATED WAVEFORM RECORDING LIDAR DATA IN BOREAL JUVENILE FOREST VEGETATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Hovi

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Airborne small-footprint LiDAR is replacing field measurements in regional-level forest inventories, but auxiliary field work is still required for the optimal management of young stands. Waveform (WF recording sensors can provide a more detailed description of the vegetation compared to discrete return (DR systems. Furthermore, knowing the shape of the signal facilitates comparisons between real data and those obtained with simulation tools. We performed a quantitative validation of a Monte Carlo ray tracing (MCRT -based LiDAR simulator against real data and used simulations and empirical data to study the WF recording LiDAR for the classification of boreal juvenile forest vegetation. Geometric-optical models of three common species were used as input for the MCRT model. Simulated radiometric and geometric WF features were in good agreement with the real data, and interspecies differences were preserved. We used the simulator to study the effects of sensor parameters on species classification performance. An increase in footprint size improved the classification accuracy up to a certain footprint size, while the emitted pulse width and the WF sampling rate had minor effects. Analyses on empirical data showed small improvement in performance compared to existing studies, when classifying seedling stand vegetation to four operational classes. The results on simulator validation serve as a basis for the future use of simulation models e.g. in LiDAR survey planning or in the simulation of synthetic training data, while the empirical findings clarify the potential of WF LiDAR data in the inventory chain for the operational forest management planning in Finland.

Investment analysis in hydraulic energy generation by using the real options theory; Analise de investimentos em geracao hidraulica utilizando a teoria de opcoes reais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noronha, J.C. Caminha; Lima, J.W. Marangon [Universidade Federal de Itajuba (UNIFEI), MG (Brazil)]. E-mails: juliaccn@unifei.edu.br; marangon@unifei.edu.br; Ferreira, T.G. Leite [Associacao Brasileira dos Investidores em Autoproducao de Energia Eletrica (ABIAPE), Brasilia, DF (Brazil)]. E-mail: tiago@abiape.com.br

2006-07-01

This paper presents a methodology of investment analysis in power plants using the Real Option Theory. Particularly, the investment opportunity of a hydro plant is valued based on the energy that will be traded at the new energy auction using the Brazilian Development Bank - BNDES financing program for the Generation of electric energy (new energy). Since this kind of project involves a multistage investment consisting of design, construction and operation phases, it can be treated as a sequential compound option. A binomial approach was elaborated to model this investment opportunity analysis. This approach models the uncertainties in setting up the cash flow for the investments and incorporates some possible managerial flexibility associated with the decision taken along the investment forecast. The proposed methodology will be described in parallel with an example of a real hydro-plant in which we incorporated the flexibilities regarding the decision to invest in each step of the project and an build phase abandon option, representing the transfer of concession rights after the auction. (author)

Nonlinear Schrödinger approach to European option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Wróblewski, Marcin

2017-05-01

This paper deals with numerical option pricing methods based on a Schrödinger model rather than the Black-Scholes model. Nonlinear Schrödinger boundary value problems seem to be alternatives to linear models which better reflect the complexity and behavior of real markets. Therefore, based on the nonlinear Schrödinger option pricing model proposed in the literature, in this paper a model augmented by external atomic potentials is proposed and numerically tested. In terms of statistical physics the developed model describes the option in analogy to a pair of two identical quantum particles occupying the same state. The proposed model is used to price European call options on a stock index. the model is calibrated using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm based on market data. A Runge-Kutta method is used to solve the discretized boundary value problem numerically. Numerical results are provided and discussed. It seems that our proposal more accurately models phenomena observed in the real market than do linear models.

Fuzzy logic based power-efficient real-time multi-core system

CERN Document Server

Ahmed, Jameel; Najam, Shaheryar; Najam, Zohaib

2017-01-01

This book focuses on identifying the performance challenges involved in computer architectures, optimal configuration settings and analysing their impact on the performance of multi-core architectures. Proposing a power and throughput-aware fuzzy-logic-based reconfiguration for Multi-Processor Systems on Chip (MPSoCs) in both simulation and real-time environments, it is divided into two major parts. The first part deals with the simulation-based power and throughput-aware fuzzy logic reconfiguration for multi-core architectures, presenting the results of a detailed analysis on the factors impacting the power consumption and performance of MPSoCs. In turn, the second part highlights the real-time implementation of fuzzy-logic-based power-efficient reconfigurable multi-core architectures for Intel and Leone3 processors. .

Real-Time Climate Simulations in the Interactive 3D Game Universe Sandbox ²

Science.gov (United States)

Goldenson, N. L.

2014-12-01

Exploration in an open-ended computer game is an engaging way to explore climate and climate change. Everyone can explore physical models with real-time visualization in the educational simulator Universe Sandbox ² (universesandbox.com/2), which includes basic climate simulations on planets. I have implemented a time-dependent, one-dimensional meridional heat transport energy balance model to run and be adjustable in real time in the midst of a larger simulated system. Universe Sandbox ² is based on the original game - at its core a gravity simulator - with other new physically-based content for stellar evolution, and handling collisions between bodies. Existing users are mostly science enthusiasts in informal settings. We believe that this is the first climate simulation to be implemented in a professionally developed computer game with modern 3D graphical output in real time. The type of simple climate model we've adopted helps us depict the seasonal cycle and the more drastic changes that come from changing the orbit or other external forcings. Users can alter the climate as the simulation is running by altering the star(s) in the simulation, dragging to change orbits and obliquity, adjusting the climate simulation parameters directly or changing other properties like CO2 concentration that affect the model parameters in representative ways. Ongoing visuals of the expansion and contraction of sea ice and snow-cover respond to the temperature calculations, and make it accessible to explore a variety of scenarios and intuitive to understand the output. Variables like temperature can also be graphed in real time. We balance computational constraints with the ability to capture the physical phenomena we wish to visualize, giving everyone access to a simple open-ended meridional energy balance climate simulation to explore and experiment with. The software lends itself to labs at a variety of levels about climate concepts including seasons, the Greenhouse effect

Collecting real-time data with a behavioral simulation: A new methodological trait

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jespersen, Kristina Risom

interactive methods of collecting data [1, 2]. To collect real-time data as opposed to retrospective data, new methodological traits are needed. The paper proposes that a behavioral simulation supported by Web technology is a valid new research strategy to handle the collection of real-time data. Adapting...... the knowledge on agent-based modeling [3, 4], a behavioral simulation synergizes the benefits of self-administered questionnaires and the experimental design, and furthermore, introduces role-playing [5, 6] and scenario [7-11] strategies as very effective methods to ensure high interaction with the respondents....... The Web technology is the key to make a simulation for data collection objectives 'light'. Additionally, Web technology can be a solution to some of the challenges facing the traditional research methodologies such as time, ease, flexibility and cost, but perhaps more interesting, a possible solution...

An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

Science.gov (United States)

Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

2016-01-01

A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.

Issues in visual support to real-time space system simulation solved in the Systems Engineering Simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Yuen, Vincent K.

1989-01-01

The Systems Engineering Simulator has addressed the major issues in providing visual data to its real-time man-in-the-loop simulations. Out-the-window views and CCTV views are provided by three scene systems to give the astronauts their real-world views. To expand the window coverage for the Space Station Freedom workstation a rotating optics system is used to provide the widest field of view possible. To provide video signals to as many viewpoints as possible, windows and CCTVs, with a limited amount of hardware, a video distribution system has been developed to time-share the video channels among viewpoints at the selection of the simulation users. These solutions have provided the visual simulation facility for real-time man-in-the-loop simulations for the NASA space program.

Real-time well condition monitoring in extended reach wells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kucs, R.; Spoerker, H.F. [OMV Austria Exploration and Production GmbH, Gaenserndorf (Austria); Thonhauser, G. [Montanuniversitaet Leoben (Austria)

2008-10-23

Ever rising daily operating cost for offshore operations make the risk of running into drilling problems due to torque and drag developments in extended reach applications a growing concern. One option to reduce cost related to torque and drag problems can be to monitor torque and drag trends in real time without additional workload on the platform drilling team. To evaluate observed torque or drag trends it is necessary to automatically recognize operations and to have a 'standard value' to compare the measurements to. The presented systematic approach features both options - fully automated operations recognition and real time analysis. Trends can be discussed between rig- and shore-based teams, and decisions can be based on up to date information. Since the system is focused on visualization of real-time torque and drag trends, instead of highly complex and repeated simulations, calculation time is reduced by comparing the real-time rig data against predictions imported from a commercial drilling engineering application. The system allows reacting to emerging stuck pipe situations or developing cuttings beds long before the situations become severe enough to result in substantial lost time. The ability to compare real-time data with historical data from the same or other wells makes the system a valuable tool in supporting a learning organization. The system has been developed in a joint research initiative for field application on the development of an offshore heavy oil field in New Zealand. (orig.)

Long expansion planning of electrical power availability in Brazil under the real options theoretical approach; Planejamento de longo prazo da expansao da oferta de energia eletrica no Brasil sob uma perspectiva da teoria das opcoes reais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marreco, Juliana de Moraes

2007-05-15

This thesis considers uncertainty on the long term generation expansion planning in the Brazilian Electric System, under a Real Options Approach . First, Real Options Theory is used to demonstrate the importance of thermo power plants insertion in Brazil, through a flexibility valuation on hydrothermal system. This is the first objective of this thesis. In the second part a Real Options Model is proposed to support long term expansion studies, based in a levelized costs analysis. The adequacy of proposed models to real problem is illustrated by a case study of the Brazilian Power System. The results show the importance of the energetic matrix diversification on the Long Term Planning. In the expansion model proposed, results are in favor of higher participation of biomass, nuclear power and coal in Brazilian electricity generation matrix. (author)

Interactive physically-based sound simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Raghuvanshi, Nikunj

The realization of interactive, immersive virtual worlds requires the ability to present a realistic audio experience that convincingly compliments their visual rendering. Physical simulation is a natural way to achieve such realism, enabling deeply immersive virtual worlds. However, physically-based sound simulation is very computationally expensive owing to the high-frequency, transient oscillations underlying audible sounds. The increasing computational power of desktop computers has served to reduce the gap between required and available computation, and it has become possible to bridge this gap further by using a combination of algorithmic improvements that exploit the physical, as well as perceptual properties of audible sounds. My thesis is a step in this direction. My dissertation concentrates on developing real-time techniques for both sub-problems of sound simulation: synthesis and propagation. Sound synthesis is concerned with generating the sounds produced by objects due to elastic surface vibrations upon interaction with the environment, such as collisions. I present novel techniques that exploit human auditory perception to simulate scenes with hundreds of sounding objects undergoing impact and rolling in real time. Sound propagation is the complementary problem of modeling the high-order scattering and diffraction of sound in an environment as it travels from source to listener. I discuss my work on a novel numerical acoustic simulator (ARD) that is hundred times faster and consumes ten times less memory than a high-accuracy finite-difference technique, allowing acoustic simulations on previously-intractable spaces, such as a cathedral, on a desktop computer. Lastly, I present my work on interactive sound propagation that leverages my ARD simulator to render the acoustics of arbitrary static scenes for multiple moving sources and listener in real time, while accounting for scene-dependent effects such as low-pass filtering and smooth attenuation

Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Rios, Jr., Cesar G; Housel, Thomas; Mun, Johnathan

2006-01-01

...) on individual projects, programs, and processes within a portfolio of IT investments. Using KVA historical data as a platform, the authors evaluate potential strategic investments with real options analysis...

Image based SAR product simulation for analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Domik, G.; Leberl, F.

1987-01-01

SAR product simulation serves to predict SAR image gray values for various flight paths. Input typically consists of a digital elevation model and backscatter curves. A new method is described of product simulation that employs also a real SAR input image for image simulation. This can be denoted as 'image-based simulation'. Different methods to perform this SAR prediction are presented and advantages and disadvantages discussed. Ascending and descending orbit images from NASA's SIR-B experiment were used for verification of the concept: input images from ascending orbits were converted into images from a descending orbit; the results are compared to the available real imagery to verify that the prediction technique produces meaningful image data.

Fuzzy Optimization of Option Pricing Model and Its Application in Land Expropriation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aimin Heng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Option pricing is irreversible, fuzzy, and flexible. The fuzzy measure which is used for real option pricing is a useful supplement to the traditional real option pricing method. Based on the review of the concepts of the mean and variance of trapezoidal fuzzy number and the combination with the Carlsson-Fuller model, the trapezoidal fuzzy variable can be used to represent the current price of land expropriation and the sale price of land on the option day. Fuzzy Black-Scholes option pricing model can be constructed under fuzzy environment and problems also can be solved and discussed through numerical examples.

Economic Evaluation for Energy Business Using Real Options Pricing Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, W.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

2001-11-01

Recently, facing the new era of restructuring, privatization, and liberalization the energy industry in the world is changing rapidly, and thus the uncertain factors tend to increase. This would imply that energy-related business is now confronted with new market risks as well as the simple price risks. The traditional investment valuation method using the concept of net present value (NPV) or internal rate of revenue (IRR) might not incorporate the managerial alternatives which enable managers to respond flexibly to the changes in business environment. This study pointed out the problems of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method when evaluating a certain capital investment in energy industry. As an alternative, the real option pricing method (ROPM) was proposed, which is widely adopted in the field of profit projection for the venture business. In addition, when applying to energy sector the feasibility of ROPM was discussed, and the frameworks and major results of previous related studies were described. For those using the ROPM in real business, I explained the detailed procedures and solutions of ROPM, and introduced the log-transformed binomial model which provides a more efficient solution. In order to verify the usefulness of the ROPM, this study performed an empirical analysis for a virtual construction and operation project of power plant. And, the results from the ROPM was compared to those from the traditional DCF method. Based on the empirical results, the values of various investment opportunities were shown to be high. Therefore, the project not justified in terms of traditional DCF would turn into the project with a positive gross project value, properly reflecting managerial flexibilities inherent in the original project. (author). 58 refs., 32 figs., 33 tabs.

Real-time tumor ablation simulation based on the dynamic mode decomposition method

KAUST Repository

Bourantas, George C.

2014-05-01

Purpose: The dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) method is used to provide a reliable forecasting of tumor ablation treatment simulation in real time, which is quite needed in medical practice. To achieve this, an extended Pennes bioheat model must be employed, taking into account both the water evaporation phenomenon and the tissue damage during tumor ablation. Methods: A meshless point collocation solver is used for the numerical solution of the governing equations. The results obtained are used by the DMD method for forecasting the numerical solution faster than the meshless solver. The procedure is first validated against analytical and numerical predictions for simple problems. The DMD method is then applied to three-dimensional simulations that involve modeling of tumor ablation and account for metabolic heat generation, blood perfusion, and heat ablation using realistic values for the various parameters. Results: The present method offers very fast numerical solution to bioheat transfer, which is of clinical significance in medical practice. It also sidesteps the mathematical treatment of boundaries between tumor and healthy tissue, which is usually a tedious procedure with some inevitable degree of approximation. The DMD method provides excellent predictions of the temperature profile in tumors and in the healthy parts of the tissue, for linear and nonlinear thermal properties of the tissue. Conclusions: The low computational cost renders the use of DMD suitable forin situ real time tumor ablation simulations without sacrificing accuracy. In such a way, the tumor ablation treatment planning is feasible using just a personal computer thanks to the simplicity of the numerical procedure used. The geometrical data can be provided directly by medical image modalities used in everyday practice. © 2014 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Real options as an alternative methodology to assess investment projects Las opciones reales como metodología alternativa en la evaluación de proyectos de inversión

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raúl Enrique Aristizábal Velásquez

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to broaden the applicability of the assessment methodology of investment projects through real options as a key element for investment decision making. Traditional project valuation methodologies are described and their gaps, which special characteristic is uncertainty, are presented. A parallel between financial and real options that could be used for valuation is made, using the binomial tree method. Finally, a case study in the construction sector shows a project valuation using expand and waiting options.Este trabajo busca ampliar la aplicabilidad de la metodología de valoración de proyectos de inversión por medio de opciones reales como un elemento fundamental al momento de tomar una decisión de si se debe invertir o no. Se hace un recorrido por las técnicas tradicionales para valorar un proyecto de inversión y se plantean los vacíos que estos dejan, con respecto a proyectos en los que su principal característica es la incertidumbre. Se realiza un paralelo entre las opciones financieras y las opciones reales que per- mita valorar, utilizando la metodología de los árboles binomiales. Por último, se elabora un caso del que se plantea valorar una opción de espera y una opción de expandir de manera conjunta en el sector de la construcción.

The Interaction between Real Options and Financial Hedging: An Empirical Study of Danish Non-Financial Companies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom

The interaction between real options and financial hedging is analyzed empirically. A majority of Danish non-financial companies either (1) chooses at times not to hedge an exchange rate operating exposure financially due to the possibility of the company to react to changes in exchange rates...

Real options and a large producer: the case of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keppo, J.

2003-01-01

In this paper we extend the real option theory to consider the situation of a large producer and we employ the model to electricity markets. This is important because many producers in these markets affect the market supply and, therefore, also the electricity price. This production price effect influences not only on the assets that the energy company owns but also on its investment opportunities. We show that this production's price effect has to be considered in the investment analysis if the company is not able to hedge the price effect in the financial markets and if there is no competition on the investment opportunity. (author)

Real-time surgical simulation for deformable soft-tissue objects with a tumour using Boundary Element techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, P.; Becker, A. A.; Jones, I. A.; Glover, A. T.; Benford, S. D.; Vloeberghs, M.

2009-08-01

A virtual-reality real-time simulation of surgical operations that incorporates the inclusion of a hard tumour is presented. The software is based on Boundary Element (BE) technique. A review of the BE formulation for real-time analysis of two-domain deformable objects, using the pre-solution technique, is presented. The two-domain BE software is incorporated into a surgical simulation system called VIRS to simulate the initiation of a cut on the surface of the soft tissue and extending the cut deeper until the tumour is reached.

Real-time surgical simulation for deformable soft-tissue objects with a tumour using Boundary Element techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, P; Becker, A A; Jones, I A; Glover, A T; Benford, S D; Vloeberghs, M

2009-01-01

A virtual-reality real-time simulation of surgical operations that incorporates the inclusion of a hard tumour is presented. The software is based on Boundary Element (BE) technique. A review of the BE formulation for real-time analysis of two-domain deformable objects, using the pre-solution technique, is presented. The two-domain BE software is incorporated into a surgical simulation system called VIRS to simulate the initiation of a cut on the surface of the soft tissue and extending the cut deeper until the tumour is reached.

In Patients With Cirrhosis, Driving Simulator Performance Is Associated With Real-life Driving.

Science.gov (United States)

Lauridsen, Mette M; Thacker, Leroy R; White, Melanie B; Unser, Ariel; Sterling, Richard K; Stravitz, Richard T; Matherly, Scott; Puri, Puneet; Sanyal, Arun J; Gavis, Edith A; Luketic, Velimir; Siddiqui, Muhammad S; Heuman, Douglas M; Fuchs, Michael; Bajaj, Jasmohan S

2016-05-01

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) has been linked to higher real-life rates of automobile crashes and poor performance in driving simulation studies, but the link between driving simulator performance and real-life automobile crashes has not been clearly established. Furthermore, not all patients with MHE are unsafe drivers, but it is unclear how to distinguish them from unsafe drivers. We investigated the link between performance on driving simulators and real-life automobile accidents and traffic violations. We also aimed to identify features of unsafe drivers with cirrhosis and evaluated changes in simulated driving skills and MHE status after 1 year. We performed a study of outpatients with cirrhosis (n = 205; median 55 years old; median model for end-stage liver disease score, 9.5; none with overt hepatic encephalopathy or alcohol or illicit drug use within previous 6 months) seen at the Virginia Commonwealth University and McGuire Veterans Administration Medical Center, from November 2008 through April 2014. All participants were given paper-pencil tests to diagnose MHE (98 had MHE; 48%), and 163 patients completed a standardized driving simulation. Data were collected on traffic violations and automobile accidents from the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles and from participants' self-assessments when they entered the study, and from 73 participants 1 year later. Participants also completed a questionnaire about alcohol use and cessation patterns. The driving simulator measured crashes, run-time, road center and edge excursions, and illegal turns during navigation; before and after each driving simulation session, patients were asked to rate their overall driving skills. Drivers were classified as safe or unsafe based on crashes and violations reported on official driving records; simulation results were compared with real-life driving records. Multivariable regression analyses of real-life crashes and violations was performed using data on

Hard- and software of real time simulation tools of Electric Power System for adequate modeling power semiconductors in voltage source convertor based HVDC and FACTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ufa Ruslan A.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The motivation of the presented research is based on the needs for development of new methods and tools for adequate simulation of Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System (FACTS devices and High Voltage Direct Current Transmission (HVDC system as part of real electric power systems (EPS. For that, a hybrid approach for advanced simulation of the FACTS and HVDC based on Voltage Source is proposed. The presented simulation results of the developed hybrid model of VSC confirm the achievement of the desired properties of the model and the effectiveness of the proposed solutions.

Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Bosch-Badia, Maria-Teresa; Montllor-Serrats, Joan; Tarrazon-Rodon, Maria-Antonia

2015-01-01

In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying those CSR projects

Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria-Teresa Bosch-Badia

Full Text Available In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR.The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying

The Application of the Real Options Method for the Evaluation of High-Rise Construction Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Izotov, Aleksandr; Rostova, Olga; Dubgorn, Alissa

2018-03-01

The paper is devoted to the problem of evaluation of high-rise construction projects in a rapidly changing environment. The authors proposed an algorithm for constructing and embedding real options in high-rise construction projects, which makes it possible to increase the flexibility of managing multi-stage projects that have the ability to adapt to changing conditions of implementation.

Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile

Science.gov (United States)

Jeuland, Marc; Whittington, Dale

2014-03-01

This article presents a methodology for planning new water resources infrastructure investments and operating strategies in a world of climate change uncertainty. It combines a real options (e.g., options to defer, expand, contract, abandon, switch use, or otherwise alter a capital investment) approach with principles drawn from robust decision-making (RDM). RDM comprises a class of methods that are used to identify investment strategies that perform relatively well, compared to the alternatives, across a wide range of plausible future scenarios. Our proposed framework relies on a simulation model that includes linkages between climate change and system hydrology, combined with sensitivity analyses that explore how economic outcomes of investments in new dams vary with forecasts of changing runoff and other uncertainties. To demonstrate the framework, we consider the case of new multipurpose dams along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. We model flexibility in design and operating decisions—the selection, sizing, and sequencing of new dams, and reservoir operating rules. Results show that there is no single investment plan that performs best across a range of plausible future runoff conditions. The decision-analytic framework is then used to identify dam configurations that are both robust to poor outcomes and sufficiently flexible to capture high upside benefits if favorable future climate and hydrological conditions should arise. The approach could be extended to explore design and operating features of development and adaptation projects other than dams.

Study on Real-Time Simulation Analysis and Inverse Analysis System for Temperature and Stress of Concrete Dam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In the concrete dam construction, it is very necessary to strengthen the real-time monitoring and scientific management of concrete temperature control. This paper constructs the analysis and inverse analysis system of temperature stress simulation, which is based on various useful data collected in real time in the process of concrete construction. The system can produce automatically data file of temperature and stress calculation and then achieve the remote real-time simulation calculation of temperature stress by using high performance computing techniques, so the inverse analysis can be carried out based on a basis of monitoring data in the database; it fulfills the automatic feedback calculation according to the error requirement and generates the corresponding curve and chart after the automatic processing and analysis of corresponding results. The system realizes the automation and intellectualization of complex data analysis and preparation work in simulation process and complex data adjustment in the inverse analysis process, which can facilitate the real-time tracking simulation and feedback analysis of concrete temperature stress in construction process and enable you to discover problems timely, take measures timely, and adjust construction scheme and can well instruct you how to ensure project quality.

Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris; Wiser, Ryan H.

2007-01-01

Benefits analysis of US Federal government research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD 3 ) programmes for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and non-renewable fuels. The benefits estimate for the programme derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD 3 programme in place. Three deficiencies of this approach are that it ignores: (1) uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE); (2) the possibility of adjustment to the RD 3 effort commensurate with the evolving state of the world; and (3) the underlying technical risk associated with RD 3 . In this paper, an intuitive approach to determining the option value of RE RD 3 is developed. This approach seeks to tackle the first two deficiencies noted above by providing an estimate via a compound real option of an RE RD 3 programme in a future with uncertain NRE costs. A binomial lattice reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process, while a numerical example illustrates the option components embedded in a simplified representation of current US Federal RE RD 3

From market games to real-world markets

Science.gov (United States)

Jefferies, P.; Hart, M. L.; Hui, P. M.; Johnson, N. F.

2001-04-01

This paper uses the development of multi-agent market models to present a unified approach to the joint questions of how financial market movements may be simulated, predicted, and hedged against. We first present the results of agent-based market simulations in which traders equipped with simple buy/sell strategies and limited information compete in speculatory trading. We examine the effect of different market clearing mechanisms and show that implementation of a simple Walrasian auction leads to unstable market dynamics. We then show that a more realistic out-of-equilibrium clearing process leads to dynamics that closely resemble real financial movements, with fat-tailed price increments, clustered volatility and high volume autocorrelation. We then show that replacing the `synthetic' price history used by these simulations with data taken from real financial time-series leads to the remarkable result that the agents can collectively learn to identify moments in the market where profit is attainable. Hence on real financial data, the system as a whole can perform better than random. We then employ the formalism of Bouchaud in conjunction with agent based models to show that in general risk cannot be eliminated from trading with these models. We also show that, in the presence of transaction costs, the risk of option writing is greatly increased. This risk, and the costs, can however be reduced through the use of a delta-hedging strategy with modified, time-dependent volatility structure.

Enfoque de opciones reales para la valoración financiera de marcas Real Options Approach to Financial Valuation of Brands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yessica González Londoño

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Los activos intangibles, especialmente las marcas, son parte fundamental del valor de mercado de las compañías, pues representan su ventaja competitiva; sin embargo, la Contabilidad y las Finanzas se enfrentan ante un reto difícil al momento de valorarlos. Los métodos de medición de intangibles en la literatura revisada se caracterizan por ser limitados y subjetivos, e incluso presentan algunos errores conceptuales, encontrándose su utilidad principal en el campo de la gestión. Este artículo propone una metodología para la valoración financiera de marcas a partir de una extensión de la aplicación de opciones reales compuestas de las patentes, aprovechando las similitudes en su construcción. Su aplicación se ilustra mediante la valoración de la marca de una compañía aseguradora.Intangible assets are an important component of the market value of a company, particularly in brands which represent the competitive advantage of the company; however, both Accounting and Finance face a great challenge when trying to value them. The methods which have been proposed by the literature appear to be subjective, limited, and based on some theoretical errors. Their use is mainly circumscribed to the management of intangibles. This paper proposes a methodology for the financial valuation of brands based on the application of a compound real option model to a patent valuation, acknowledging the similarities in their construction. Later, an application to an insurance company is presented.

Keeping it real: revisiting a real-space approach to running ensembles of cosmological N-body simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orban, Chris

2013-01-01

In setting up initial conditions for ensembles of cosmological N-body simulations there are, fundamentally, two choices: either maximizing the correspondence of the initial density field to the assumed fourier-space clustering or, instead, matching to real-space statistics and allowing the DC mode (i.e. overdensity) to vary from box to box as it would in the real universe. As a stringent test of both approaches, I perform ensembles of simulations using power law and a ''powerlaw times a bump'' model inspired by baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), exploiting the self-similarity of these initial conditions to quantify the accuracy of the matter-matter two-point correlation results. The real-space method, which was originally proposed by Pen 1997 [1] and implemented by Sirko 2005 [2], performed well in producing the expected self-similar behavior and corroborated the non-linear evolution of the BAO feature observed in conventional simulations, even in the strongly-clustered regime (σ 8 ∼>1). In revisiting the real-space method championed by [2], it was also noticed that this earlier study overlooked an important integral constraint correction to the correlation function in results from the conventional approach that can be important in ΛCDM simulations with L box ∼ −1 Gpc and on scales r∼>L box /10. Rectifying this issue shows that the fourier space and real space methods are about equally accurate and efficient for modeling the evolution and growth of the correlation function, contrary to previous claims. An appendix provides a useful independent-of-epoch analytic formula for estimating the importance of the integral constraint bias on correlation function measurements in ΛCDM simulations

A Lyapunov Function Based Remedial Action Screening Tool Using Real-Time Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mitra, Joydeep [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States); Ben-Idris, Mohammed [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United States); Faruque, Omar [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States); Backhaus, Scott [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Deb, Sidart [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States)

2016-03-30

This report summarizes the outcome of a research project that comprised the development of a Lyapunov function based remedial action screening tool using real-time data (L-RAS). The L-RAS is an advanced computational tool that is intended to assist system operators in making real-time redispatch decisions to preserve power grid stability. The tool relies on screening contingencies using a homotopy method based on Lyapunov functions to avoid, to the extent possible, the use of time domain simulations. This enables transient stability evaluation at real-time speed without the use of massively parallel computational resources. The project combined the following components. 1. Development of a methodology for contingency screening using a homotopy method based on Lyapunov functions and real-time data. 2. Development of a methodology for recommending remedial actions based on the screening results. 3. Development of a visualization and operator interaction interface. 4. Testing of screening tool, validation of control actions, and demonstration of project outcomes on a representative real system simulated on a Real-Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) cluster. The project was led by Michigan State University (MSU), where the theoretical models including homotopy-based screening, trajectory correction using real-time data, and remedial action were developed and implemented in the form of research-grade software. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) contributed to the development of energy margin sensitivity dynamics, which constituted a part of the remedial action portfolio. Florida State University (FSU) and Southern California Edison (SCE) developed a model of the SCE system that was implemented on FSU's RTDS cluster to simulate real-time data that was streamed over the internet to MSU where the L-RAS tool was executed and remedial actions were communicated back to FSU to execute stabilizing controls on the simulated system. LCG Consulting developed the visualization

 Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger: An Empirical Study of EU15 Manufacturing Firms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom

) to exercise real options such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch suppliers, and to generally expand in the Euro-area. The results are robust after controlling for the size of the firms and their sales in the Euro-area. The results go beyond what...

Real options valuation and optimization of energy assets

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Matthew

In this thesis we present algorithms for the valuation and optimal operation of natural gas storage facilities, hydro-electric power plants and thermal power generators in competitive markets. Real options theory is used to derive nonlinear partial-integro-differential equations (PIDEs) for the valuation and optimal operating strategies of all types of facilities. The equations are designed to incorporate a wide class of spot price models that can exhibit the same time-dependent, mean-reverting dynamics and price spikes as those observed in most energy markets. Particular attention is paid to the operational characteristics of real energy assets. For natural gas storage facilities these characteristics include: working gas capacities, variable deliverability and injection rates and cycling limitations. For thermal power plants relevant operational characteristics include variable start-up times and costs, control response time lags, minimum generating levels, nonlinear output functions, structural limitations on ramp rates, and minimum up/down time restrictions. For hydro-electric units, head effects and environmental constraints are addressed. We illustrate the models with numerical examples of a gas storage facility, a hydro-electric pump storage facility and a thermal power plant. This PIDE framework is the first in the literature to achieve second order accuracy in characterizing the operating states of hydro-electric and hydro-thermal power plants. The continuous state space representation derived in this thesis can therefore achieve far greater realism in terms of operating state specification than any other method in the literature to date. This thesis is also the first and only to allow for any continuous time jump diffusion processes in order to account for price spikes.

IGBT Switching Characteristic Curve Embedded Half-Bridge MMC Modelling and Real Time Simulation Realization

Science.gov (United States)

Zhengang, Lu; Hongyang, Yu; Xi, Yang

2017-05-01

The Modular Multilevel Converter (MMC) is one of the most attractive topologies in recent years for medium or high voltage industrial applications, such as high voltage dc transmission (HVDC) and medium voltage varying speed motor drive. The wide adoption of MMCs in industry is mainly due to its flexible expandability, transformer-less configuration, common dc bus, high reliability from redundancy, and so on. But, when the sub module number of MMC is more, the test of MMC controller will cost more time and effort. Hardware in the loop test based on real time simulator will save a lot of time and money caused by the MMC test. And due to the flexible of HIL, it becomes more and more popular in the industry area. The MMC modelling method remains an important issue for the MMC HIL test. Specifically, the VSC model should realistically reflect the nonlinear device switching characteristics, switching and conduction losses, tailing current, and diode reverse recovery behaviour of a realistic converter. In this paper, an IGBT switching characteristic curve embedded half-bridge MMC modelling method is proposed. This method is based on the switching curve referring and sample circuit calculation, and it is sample for implementation. Based on the proposed method, a FPGA real time simulation is carried out with 200ns sample time. The real time simulation results show the proposed method is correct.

Evaluating State Options for Reducing Medicaid Churning

Science.gov (United States)

Swartz, Katherine; Short, Pamela Farley; Graefe, Deborah R.; Uberoi, Namrata

2015-01-01

Medicaid churning - the constant exit and re-entry of beneficiaries as their eligibility changes - has long been a problem for both Medicaid administrators and recipients. Churning will continue under the Affordable Care Act, because despite new federal rules, Medicaid eligibility will continue to be based on current monthly income. We developed a longitudinal simulation model to evaluate four policy options for modifying or extending Medicaid eligibility to reduce churning. The simulations suggest that two options, extending Medicaid eligibility either to the end of a calendar year or for twelve months after enrollment, would be far more effective in reducing churning than the other options of a three-month extension or eligibility based on projected annual income. States should consider implementation of the option that best balances costs, including both administration and services, with improved health of Medicaid enrollees. PMID:26153313

A new ChainMail approach for real-time soft tissue simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jinao; Zhong, Yongmin; Smith, Julian; Gu, Chengfan

2016-07-03

This paper presents a new ChainMail method for real-time soft tissue simulation. This method enables the use of different material properties for chain elements to accommodate various materials. Based on the ChainMail bounding region, a new time-saving scheme is developed to improve computational efficiency for isotropic materials. The proposed method also conserves volume and strain energy. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed ChainMail method can not only accommodate isotropic, anisotropic and heterogeneous materials but also model incompressibility and relaxation behaviors of soft tissues. Further, the proposed method can achieve real-time computational performance.

Design of simulation-based medical education and advantages and disadvantages of in situ simulation versus off-site simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Sørensen, Jette Led; Østergaard, Doris; LeBlanc, Vicki; Ottesen, Bent; Konge, Lars; Dieckmann, Peter; Van der Vleuten, Cees

2017-01-21

Simulation-based medical education (SBME) has traditionally been conducted as off-site simulation in simulation centres. Some hospital departments also provide off-site simulation using in-house training room(s) set up for simulation away from the clinical setting, and these activities are called in-house training. In-house training facilities can be part of hospital departments and resemble to some extent simulation centres but often have less technical equipment. In situ simulation, introduced over the past decade, mainly comprises of team-based activities and occurs in patient care units with healthcare professionals in their own working environment. Thus, this intentional blend of simulation and real working environments means that in situ simulation brings simulation to the real working environment and provides training where people work. In situ simulation can be either announced or unannounced, the latter also known as a drill. This article presents and discusses the design of SBME and the advantage and disadvantage of the different simulation settings, such as training in simulation-centres, in-house simulations in hospital departments, announced or unannounced in situ simulations. Non-randomised studies argue that in situ simulation is more effective for educational purposes than other types of simulation settings. Conversely, the few comparison studies that exist, either randomised or retrospective, show that choice of setting does not seem to influence individual or team learning. However, hospital department-based simulations, such as in-house simulation and in situ simulation, lead to a gain in organisational learning. To our knowledge no studies have compared announced and unannounced in situ simulation. The literature suggests some improved organisational learning from unannounced in situ simulation; however, unannounced in situ simulation was also found to be challenging to plan and conduct, and more stressful among participants. The importance of

Comparison between lighting performance of a virtual natural lighting solutions prototype and a real window based on computer simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R.A. Mangkuto

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the measurement and simulation of a first generation prototype of Virtual Natural Lighting Solutions (VNLS, which are systems that can artificially provide natural lighting as well as a realistic outside view, with properties comparable to those of real windows and skylights. Examples of employing Radiance as a simulation tool to predict the lighting performance of such solutions are shown, for a particular case study of a VNLS prototype displaying variations of a simplified view of overcast, clear, and partly cloudy skies. Measurement and simulation were conducted to evaluate the illuminance distribution on workplane level. The key point of this study is to show that simulations can be used to compare an actual VNLS prototype with a hypothetical real window under the same sky scenes, which was physically not possible, since the test room was not located at the building׳s façade. It is found that the investigated prototype yields a less rapidly drop illuminance distribution and a larger average illuminance than the corresponding real window, under the overcast (52 lx compared to 28 lx and partly cloudy (102 lx compared to 80 lx sky scenes. Under the clear sky scene, the real window yields a larger average illuminance (97 lx compared to the prototype (71 lx, due to the influence of direct sunlight.

Building the evidence on simulation validity: comparison of anesthesiologists' communication patterns in real and simulated cases.

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, Jennifer; Henderson, Robert; Webster, Craig S; Shulruf, Boaz; Torrie, Jane; Davies, Elaine; Henderson, Kaylene; Frampton, Chris; Merry, Alan F

2014-01-01

Effective teamwork is important for patient safety, and verbal communication underpins many dimensions of teamwork. The validity of the simulated environment would be supported if it elicited similar verbal communications to the real setting. The authors hypothesized that anesthesiologists would exhibit similar verbal communication patterns in routine operating room (OR) cases and routine simulated cases. The authors further hypothesized that anesthesiologists would exhibit different communication patterns in routine cases (real or simulated) and simulated cases involving a crisis. Key communications relevant to teamwork were coded from video recordings of anesthesiologists in the OR, routine simulation and crisis simulation and percentages were compared. The authors recorded comparable videos of 20 anesthesiologists in the two simulations, and 17 of these anesthesiologists in the OR, generating 400 coded events in the OR, 683 in the routine simulation, and 1,419 in the crisis simulation. The authors found no significant differences in communication patterns in the OR and the routine simulations. The authors did find significant differences in communication patterns between the crisis simulation and both the OR and the routine simulations. Participants rated team communication as realistic and considered their communications occurred with a similar frequency in the simulations as in comparable cases in the OR. The similarity of teamwork-related communications elicited from anesthesiologists in simulated cases and the real setting lends support for the ecological validity of the simulation environment and its value in teamwork training. Different communication patterns and frequencies under the challenge of a crisis support the use of simulation to assess crisis management skills.

Validation and Assessment of Multi-GNSS Real-Time Precise Point Positioning in Simulated Kinematic Mode Using IGS Real-Time Service

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang Wang

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Precise Point Positioning (PPP is a popular technology for precise applications based on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS. Multi-GNSS combined PPP has become a hot topic in recent years with the development of multiple GNSSs. Meanwhile, with the operation of the real-time service (RTS of the International GNSS Service (IGS agency that provides satellite orbit and clock corrections to broadcast ephemeris, it is possible to obtain the real-time precise products of satellite orbits and clocks and to conduct real-time PPP. In this contribution, the real-time multi-GNSS orbit and clock corrections of the CLK93 product are applied for real-time multi-GNSS PPP processing, and its orbit and clock qualities are investigated, first with a seven-day experiment by comparing them with the final multi-GNSS precise product ‘GBM’ from GFZ. Then, an experiment involving real-time PPP processing for three stations in the Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX network with a testing period of two weeks is conducted in order to evaluate the convergence performance of real-time PPP in a simulated kinematic mode. The experimental result shows that real-time PPP can achieve a convergence performance of less than 15 min for an accuracy level of 20 cm. Finally, the real-time data streams from 12 globally distributed IGS/MGEX stations for one month are used to assess and validate the positioning accuracy of real-time multi-GNSS PPP. The results show that the simulated kinematic positioning accuracy achieved by real-time PPP on different stations is about 3.0 to 4.0 cm for the horizontal direction and 5.0 to 7.0 cm for the three-dimensional (3D direction.

Analyzing the Risks Embedded in Option Prices with rndfittool

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barletta, Andrea; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

2018-01-01

This paper introduces a new computational tool for the analysis of the risks embedded in a set of prices of European-style options. The software enables the estimation of the risk-neutral density (RND) from the observed option prices by means of orthogonal polynomial expansions. Orthogonal...... polynomials offer a viable alternative to more standard techniques based on interpolation and estimation of the second-order derivatives of option prices. The app rndfittool is available on GitHub and its usage is illustrated with examples based on real data....

The Cost of Your Shirt. A Simulation Exercise for Secondary Students and Adults, Based on the Real-Life Drama of Guatemalan Textile Workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Swenson, Mary, Comp.; Austin, Jane, Comp.

This simulation exercise requires participants to practice critical thinking, problem solving, and negotiating skills as they role play real-life conflicts concerning working conditions in a factory in Guatemala City, Guatemala. Participants also learn about Guatemala's history, its social, economic, and political status as of April 1994. Based on…

Improved Real-time Denoising Method Based on Lifting Wavelet Transform

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liu Zhaohua

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Signal denoising can not only enhance the signal to noise ratio (SNR but also reduce the effect of noise. In order to satisfy the requirements of real-time signal denoising, an improved semisoft shrinkage real-time denoising method based on lifting wavelet transform was proposed. The moving data window technology realizes the real-time wavelet denoising, which employs wavelet transform based on lifting scheme to reduce computational complexity. Also hyperbolic threshold function and recursive threshold computing can ensure the dynamic characteristics of the system, in addition, it can improve the real-time calculating efficiency as well. The simulation results show that the semisoft shrinkage real-time denoising method has quite a good performance in comparison to the traditional methods, namely soft-thresholding and hard-thresholding. Therefore, this method can solve more practical engineering problems.

Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salvador Cruz Rambaud

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingming Zhang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a real options model for evaluating the biomass power generation investment in China. The uncertainties in the market price of electricity, CO2 price and straw price are considered. Meanwhile the dynamic relationship between installed capacity and fuel cost, as well as the long-term reduction of subsidy are described. Two scenarios, i.e., with the carbon emission trading scheme existent and non-existent, respectively, is built to empirically analyze the investment of a 25-MW straw-based power generation project. The results show that investors should undertake the investment in 2030 under two scenarios. Investment values are 14,869,254.8 and 37,608,727 Chinese Yuan (RMB, respectively. The implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme theoretically helps improve investment value and advance the most likely optimal investment time. However, the current CO2 price is not sufficient to advance the most likely optimal investment time. The impacts of several factors, including subsidy policy, CO2 price, straw price, installed capacity, correlation structure and the validity period of investment, on the optimal investment strategy are also examined. It is suggested that governments take some measures, including increasing subsidy, setting the growth pattern of subsidy and establishing and perfecting a nationwide carbon trading market, to improve the investment environment and attract more investments.

Use of high performance networks and supercomputers for real-time flight simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Cleveland, Jeff I., II

1993-01-01

In order to meet the stringent time-critical requirements for real-time man-in-the-loop flight simulation, computer processing operations must be consistent in processing time and be completed in as short a time as possible. These operations include simulation mathematical model computation and data input/output to the simulators. In 1986, in response to increased demands for flight simulation performance, NASA's Langley Research Center (LaRC), working with the contractor, developed extensions to the Computer Automated Measurement and Control (CAMAC) technology which resulted in a factor of ten increase in the effective bandwidth and reduced latency of modules necessary for simulator communication. This technology extension is being used by more than 80 leading technological developers in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Included among the commercial applications are nuclear process control, power grid analysis, process monitoring, real-time simulation, and radar data acquisition. Personnel at LaRC are completing the development of the use of supercomputers for mathematical model computation to support real-time flight simulation. This includes the development of a real-time operating system and development of specialized software and hardware for the simulator network. This paper describes the data acquisition technology and the development of supercomputing for flight simulation.

Variable slip wind generator modeling for real-time simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gagnon, R.; Brochu, J.; Turmel, G. [Hydro-Quebec, Varennes, PQ (Canada). IREQ

2006-07-01

A model of a wind turbine using a variable slip wound-rotor induction machine was presented. The model was created as part of a library of generic wind generator models intended for wind integration studies. The stator winding of the wind generator was connected directly to the grid and the rotor was driven by the turbine through a drive train. The variable resistors was synthesized by an external resistor in parallel with a diode rectifier. A forced-commutated power electronic device (IGBT) was connected to the wound rotor by slip rings and brushes. Simulations were conducted in a Matlab/Simulink environment using SimPowerSystems blocks to model power systems elements and Simulink blocks to model the turbine, control system and drive train. Detailed descriptions of the turbine, the drive train and the control system were provided. The model's implementation in the simulator was also described. A case study demonstrating the real-time simulation of a wind generator connected at the distribution level of a power system was presented. Results of the case study were then compared with results obtained from the SimPowerSystems off-line simulation. Results showed good agreement between the waveforms, demonstrating the conformity of the real-time and the off-line simulations. The capability of Hypersim for real-time simulation of wind turbines with power electronic converters in a distribution network was demonstrated. It was concluded that hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation of wind turbine controllers for wind integration studies in power systems is now feasible. 5 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

Fully predictive simulation of real-scale cable tray fire based on small-scale laboratory experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beji, Tarek; Merci, Bart [Ghent Univ. (Belgium). Dept. of Flow, Heat and Combustion Mechanics; Bonte, Frederick [Bel V, Brussels (Belgium)

2015-12-15

This paper presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based modelling strategy for real-scale cable tray fires. The challenge was to perform fully predictive simulations (that could be called 'blind' simulations) using solely information from laboratory-scale experiments, in addition to the geometrical arrangement of the cables. The results of the latter experiments were used (1) to construct the fuel molecule and the chemical reaction for combustion, and (2) to estimate the overall pyrolysis and burning behaviour. More particularly, the strategy regarding the second point consists of adopting a surface-based pyrolysis model. Since the burning behaviour of each cable could not be tracked individually (due to computational constraints), 'groups' of cables were modelled with an overall cable surface area equal to the actual value. The results obtained for one large-scale test (a stack of five horizontal trays) are quite encouraging, especially for the peak Heat Release Rate (HRR) that was predicted with a relative deviation of 3 %. The time to reach the peak is however overestimated by 4.7 min (i.e. 94 %). Also, the fire duration is overestimated by 5 min (i.e. 24 %). These discrepancies are mainly attributed to differences in the HRRPUA (heat release rate per unit area) profiles between the small-scale and large-scale. The latter was calculated by estimating the burning area of cables using video fire analysis (VFA).

Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonicas

2011-01-01

of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well...... obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark...

Simulated non-contact atomic force microscopy for GaAs surfaces based on real-space pseudopotentials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Minjung; Chelikowsky, James R.

2014-01-01

We simulate non-contact atomic force microscopy (AFM) with a GaAs(1 1 0) surface using a real-space ab initio pseudopotential method. While most ab initio simulations include an explicit model for the AFM tip, our method does not introduce the tip modeling step. This approach results in a considerable reduction of computational work, and also provides complete AFM images, which can be directly compared to experiment. By analyzing tip-surface interaction forces in both our results and previous ab initio simulations, we find that our method provides very similar force profile to the pure Si tip results. We conclude that our method works well for systems in which the tip is not chemically active.

Computer-Based Simulation Games in Public Administration Education

OpenAIRE

Kutergina Evgeniia

2017-01-01

Computer simulation, an active learning technique, is now one of the advanced pedagogical technologies. Th e use of simulation games in the educational process allows students to gain a firsthand understanding of the processes of real life. Public- administration, public-policy and political-science courses increasingly adopt simulation games in universities worldwide. Besides person-to-person simulation games, there are computer-based simulations in public-administration education. Currently...

Virtual reality myringotomy simulation with real-time deformation: development and validity testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Andrew K; Alsaffar, Hussain; Doyle, Philip C; Ladak, Hanif M; Agrawal, Sumit K

2012-08-01

Surgical simulation is becoming an increasingly common training tool in residency programs. The first objective was to implement real-time soft-tissue deformation and cutting into a virtual reality myringotomy simulator. The second objective was to test the various implemented incision algorithms to determine which most accurately represents the tympanic membrane during myringotomy. Descriptive and face-validity testing. A deformable tympanic membrane was developed, and three soft-tissue cutting algorithms were successfully implemented into the virtual reality myringotomy simulator. The algorithms included element removal, direction prediction, and Delaunay cutting. The simulator was stable and capable of running in real time on inexpensive hardware. A face-validity study was then carried out using a validated questionnaire given to eight otolaryngologists and four senior otolaryngology residents. Each participant was given an adaptation period on the simulator, was blinded to the algorithm being used, and was presented the three algorithms in a randomized order. A virtual reality myringotomy simulator with real-time soft-tissue deformation and cutting was successfully developed. The simulator was stable, ran in real time on inexpensive hardware, and incorporated haptic feedback and stereoscopic vision. The Delaunay cutting algorithm was found to be the most realistic algorithm representing the incision during myringotomy (P virtual reality myringotomy simulator is being developed and now integrates a real-time deformable tympanic membrane that appears to have face validity. Further development and validation studies are necessary before the simulator can be studied with respect to training efficacy and clinical impact. Copyright © 2012 The American Laryngological, Rhinological, and Otological Society, Inc.

Conversion and Validation of Distribution System Model from a QSTS-Based Tool to a Real-Time Dynamic Phasor Simulator

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chamana, Manohar; Prabakar, Kumaraguru; Palmintier, Bryan; Baggu, Murali M.

2017-05-11

A software process is developed to convert distribution network models from a quasi-static time-series tool (OpenDSS) to a real-time dynamic phasor simulator (ePHASORSIM). The description of this process in this paper would be helpful for researchers who intend to perform similar conversions. The converter could be utilized directly by users of real-time simulators who intend to perform software-in-the-loop or hardware-in-the-loop tests on large distribution test feeders for a range of use cases, including testing functions of advanced distribution management systems against a simulated distribution system. In the future, the developers intend to release the conversion tool as open source to enable use by others.

A real time knowledge-based alarm system EXTRA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ancelin, J.; Gaussot, J.P.; Legaud, P.

1987-01-01

EXTRA is an experimental expert system for industrial process control. The main objectives are the diagnosis and operation aids. From a methodological point of view, EXTRA is based on a deep knowledge of the plant operation and on qualitative simulation principles. The application concerns all the electric power and the Chemical and Volume Control System of a P.W.R. nuclear plant. The tests conducted on a full-scope simulator representative of the real plant yielded excellent results and taught the authors a number of lessons. The main lesson concerns the efficiency and flexibility provided by the combination of a knowledge-based system and of an advanced mini-computer

Passive hybrid force-position control for tele-operation based on real-time simulation of a virtual mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joly, L.; Andriot, C.

1995-01-01

Hybrid force-position control aims at controlling position and force in separate directions. It is particularly useful to perform certain robotic tasks. In tele-operation context, passivity is important because it ensures stability when the system interacts with any passive environment. In this paper, we propose an original approach to hybrid force-position control of a force reflecting tele-robot system. It is based on real-time simulation of a virtual mechanism corresponding to the task. the resulting control law is passive. Experiments on a 6 degrees of freedom tele-operation system consisting in following a bent pipe under several control modes validate the approach. (authors). 12 refs., 6 figs

Design and Realization of Avionics Integration Simulation System Based on RTX

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Liang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Aircraft avionics system becoming more and more complicated, it is too hard to test and verify real avionics systems. A design and realization method of avionics integration simulation system based on RTX was brought forward to resolve the problem. In this simulation system, computer software and hardware resources were utilized entirely. All kinds of aircraft avionics system HIL (hardware-in-loop simulations can be implemented in this platform. The simulation method provided the technical foundation of testing and verifying real avionics system. The research has recorded valuable data using the newly-developed method. The experiment results prove that the avionics integration simulation system was used well in some helicopter avionics HIL simulation experiment. The simulation experiment results provided the necessary judgment foundation for the helicopter real avionics system verification.

Real time simulation method for fast breeder reactors dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miki, Tetsushi; Mineo, Yoshiyuki; Ogino, Takamichi; Kishida, Koji; Furuichi, Kenji.

1985-01-01

The development of multi-purpose real time simulator models with suitable plant dynamics was made; these models can be used not only in training operators but also in designing control systems, operation sequences and many other items which must be studied for the development of new type reactors. The prototype fast breeder reactor ''Monju'' is taken as an example. Analysis is made on various factors affecting the accuracy and computer load of its dynamic simulation. A method is presented which determines the optimum number of nodes in distributed systems and time steps. The oscillations due to the numerical instability are observed in the dynamic simulation of evaporators with a small number of nodes, and a method to cancel these oscillations is proposed. It has been verified through the development of plant dynamics simulation codes that these methods can provide efficient real time dynamics models of fast breeder reactors. (author)

Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments

OpenAIRE

Collan, Mikael

2004-01-01

In this doctoral dissertation characteristics of very large industrial real investments (VLIRI) are investigated and a special group of VLIRI is defined as giga-investments. The investment decision-making regarding to giga-investments is discussed from the points of view of discounted cash-flow based methods and real option valuation. Based on the bacground of establishing giga-investments, state-of-the-art in capital budgeting (including real options) and by applying fuzzy numbers a novel me...

Key technology research of HILS based on real-time operating system

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Fankai; Lu, Huiming; Liu, Che

2018-03-01

In order to solve the problems that the long development cycle of traditional simulation and digital simulation doesn't have the characteristics of real time, this paper designed a HILS(Hardware In the Loop Simulation) system based on the real-time operating platform xPC. This system solved the communication problems between HMI and Simulink models through the MATLAB engine interface, and realized the functions of system setting, offline simulation, model compiling and downloading, etc. Using xPC application interface and integrating the TeeChart ActiveX chart component to realize the monitoring function of real-time target application; Each functional block in the system is encapsulated in the form of DLL, and the data interaction between modules was realized by MySQL database technology. When the HILS system runs, search the address of the online xPC target by means of the Ping command, to establish the Tcp/IP communication between the two machines. The technical effectiveness of the developed system is verified through the typical power station control system.

Contribution to the economic impact assessment of policy options to regulate animal cloning for food production with an economic simulation model

OpenAIRE

Koen Dillen; Emanuele Ferrari; Pascal Tillie; George Philippidis; Sophie Helaine

2013-01-01

The EU is currently evaluating different policy options towards the use of cloning or products derived from cloned animals in the food chain. This study presents a first attempt to quantify the likely effects of different policy scenarios on international trade and EU domestic production. In the context of the Impact Asessment process the JRC was requested to simulate via a modelling study the economic impact of selected policy options. Based on a literature review and the specific constra...

Real-time modelling of a ventilation system for a power plant simulator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kocher, P.; Welfonder, E.

1992-01-01

This paper describes how to simulate in real-time the ventilation system of a nuclear power plant. The simulation is made under difficult computing time conditions. The ventilation system program is part of a simulator which simulates the whole nuclear power plant process in realtime. Therefore the ventilation system is split up into several smaller units. For each of these process units a real-time module has been developed, being as simple as possible but nevertheless coming close enough to the real dynamic behaviour. After that the simple real-time modules are linked together to form the total dynamic model ''ventilation system''. The continuous dynamic model developed is numerically integrated by the Euler method. The stability of this explicit method is maintained by special modelling measures such as the increasing of too low flow resistances or the limitation of too high gain factors. At the end of the paper some curves, recorded at the simulator, illustrate the behaviour of the ventilation system in the case of an accident. (author)

Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool, Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Ruiz, F.; Solana, P. [Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Dep. de Ingenieria de Organizacion, Administracion de Empresas y Estadistica, C/ Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006-Madrid (Spain)

2012-07-01

According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.; Ruiz, F.; Solana, P.

2012-01-01

According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

Flexibility in using Diesel or biodiesel: an approach via real options; Flexibilidade na utilizacao de Diesel ou biodiesel: uma abordagem via opcoes reais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goncalves, Edson Daniel Lopes [Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: edson@fgvmail.br; Ferreira, Leonardo Leandro [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: leonardo.ferreira@petrobras.com.br

2008-09-15

This work will approach the bio diesel development as renewable source fuel in the Brazilian energetic matrix. Essentially, the utilization flexibility will be considered between the traditional petroleum origin Diesel and the vegetable origin Biodiesel. So, our target is the evaluation of the flexibility existent between those two fuels. A consideration will be made via real options, where the fuel choice for supplying is modelled as a an european options sequence. Those switch input real options attributes a value to the project and minimizes the risks associated to the energy offer shortage which is another recurrent problem inside our reality. At least, some comments will be made on the potential gain on the aggregate value for the Brazil, as a consequence of Diesel dependent road transportation.

A Simulation-Based Evaluation of Premovement Active Surveillance Protocol Options for the Managed Movement of Turkeys to Slaughter During an Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Todd Weaver, J; Malladi, Sasidhar; Bonney, Peter J; Patyk, Kelly A; Bergeron, Justin G; Middleton, Jamie L; Alexander, Catherine Y; Goldsmith, Timothy J; Halvorson, David A

2016-05-01

Risk management decisions associated with live poultry movement during a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak should be carefully considered. Live turkey movements may pose a risk for disease spread. On the other hand, interruptions in scheduled movements can disrupt business continuity. The Secure Turkey Supply (STS) Plan was developed through an industry-government-academic collaboration to address business continuity concerns that might arise during a HPAI outbreak. STS stakeholders proposed outbreak response measure options that were evaluated through risk assessment. The developed approach relies on 1) diagnostic testing of two pooled samples of swabs taken from dead turkeys immediately before movement via the influenza A matrix gene real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) test; 2) enhanced biosecurity measures in combination with a premovement isolation period (PMIP), restricting movement onto the premises for a few days before movement to slaughter; and 3) incorporation of a distance factor from known infected flocks such that exposure via local area spread is unlikely. Daily exposure likelihood estimates from spatial kernels from past HPAI outbreaks were coupled with simulation models of disease spread and active surveillance to evaluate active surveillance protocol options that differ with respect to the number of swabs per pooled sample and the timing of the tests in relation to movement. Simulation model results indicate that active surveillance testing, in combination with strict biosecurity, substantially increased HPAI virus detection probability. When distance from a known infected flock was considered, the overall combined likelihood of moving an infected, undetected turkey flock to slaughter was predicted to be lower at 3 and 5 km. The analysis of different active surveillance protocol options is designed to incorporate flexibility into HPAI emergency response plans.

Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Bao-Jun; Zhou, Hui-Ling; Chen, Hao; Wang, Kai; Cao, Hong

2017-01-01

China's overseas oil investments uphold national energy security. Located in the complex international economic and political environment, the benefits of overseas oil projects are affected by various uncertainties. Oil companies call for a set of evaluation method dealing with these uncertainties, especially when encountering low-oil-price conditions. It is much more crucial to answer when to optimally invest rather than whether to invest. This paper analyzes the investment opportunity of an oil project in the development and production phase considering uncertainty, irreversibility and management flexibility. The decision-making process combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method and the trinomial tree model of Real Option Approach (ROA). For practical purposes, tools of hurdle price, cumulative probability and decision tree are adopted. In addition, results of the case project show the economic feasibility at present and optimal start-up timing at the end of 2016. Besides, the lower cost parameters generally make it easier to meet the opportunity. The scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contributes to an earlier start-up. Furthermore, the issues of method applicability, investment signals and decision-lag effects are discussed. - Highlights: • Volatility is combined with fluctuations in oil price, exchange rate and political situation. • Hurdle price is adopted as a critical price to measure investment opportunity. • Scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contribute to earlier investment timing.

A Matlab based framework for the real-time environment at FTU

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vitale, V.; Iannone, F.; Centioli, C.; Pangione, L.; Zaccarian, L.

2006-01-01

The Feedback Control System running at FTU has been recently ported from a commercial platform (O.S. LynxOS) to an open-source GNU/Linux-RTAI platform, obtaining significant performance and cost improvements. Thanks to the new platform, more user friendly tools can be developed in order to help the designer with new control laws. A relevant goal within this new framework is to provide a high level environment where new control algorithms can be created then simulated and finally released without minding the code implementation issues. The ideal situation would be to have a dedicated framework which provides all the necessary phases from the design to the commissioning of the new software. This framework should simulate the real-time context and make transparent to the user on the one hand all the issues related to the simulation (e.g. experimental data retrieving) and on the other hand all the aspects (platform, operating system, programming language, network, hardware...) related to the actual environment where the new algorithm will be run. In this paper we report on recent developments, based on The MathWorks' Simulink and Real Time Workshop (RTW) packages, aimed at obtaining the above mentioned environment where a new control law can be easily modelled, simulated with the real time constraints and then translated in the appropriate executable format. Using this tool, the control designer only needs to specify the control law in the Simulink graphical environment. The arising model is then automatically translated in C code, integrated with control system code and simulated in real-time using the data from the FTU data base archive. All the necessary steps to adapt the RTW scripts and the control system code to the new simulation/validation environment will be illustrated in this paper. Moreover we will report on some experimental tests where the actual experiment is compared with the simulations provided by the proposed environment. (author)

Simulation of off-grid generation options for remote villages in Cameroon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nfah, E.M.; Ngundam, J.M.; Vandenbergh, M.; Schmid, J.

2008-01-01

Off-grid generation options have been simulated for remote villages in Cameroon using a load of 110 kWh/day and 12 kWp. The energy costs of proposed options were simulated using HOMER, a typical village load profile, the solar resource of Garoua and the flow of river Mungo. For a 40% increase in the cost of imported power system components, the cost of energy was found to be 0.296 EUR/kWh for a micro-hydro hybrid system comprising a 14 kW micro-hydro generator, a 15 kW LPG generator and 36 kWh of battery storage. The cost of energy for photovoltaic (PV) hybrid systems made up of an 18 kWp PV generator, a 15 kW LPG generator and 72 kWh of battery storage was also found to be 0.576 EUR/kWh for remote petrol price of 1 EUR/l and LPG price of 0.70 EUR/m 3 . The micro-hydro hybrid system proved to be the cheapest option for villages located in the southern parts of Cameroon with a flow rate of at least 200l/s, while the PV hybrid system was the cheapest option for villages in the northern parts of Cameroon with an insolation level of at least 5.55 kWh/m 2 /day. For a single-wire grid extension cost of 5000 EUR/km, operation and maintenance costs of 125 EUR/yr/km and a local grid power price of 0.1 EUR/kWh, the breakeven grid extension distances were found to be 15.4 km for micro-hydro/LPG generator systems and 37.4 km for PV/LPG generator systems respectively. These results could be used in Cameroon's National Energy Action Plan for the provision of energy services in the key sectors involved in the fight against poverty. (author)

MASADA: A MODELING AND SIMULATION AUTOMATED DATA ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK FOR CONTINUOUS DATA-INTENSIVE VALIDATION OF SIMULATION MODELS

CERN Document Server

Foguelman, Daniel Jacob; The ATLAS collaboration

2016-01-01

Complex networked computer systems are usually subjected to upgrades and enhancements on a continuous basis. Modeling and simulation of such systems helps with guiding their engineering processes, in particular when testing candi- date design alternatives directly on the real system is not an option. Models are built and simulation exercises are run guided by specific research and/or design questions. A vast amount of operational conditions for the real system need to be assumed in order to focus on the relevant questions at hand. A typical boundary condition for computer systems is the exogenously imposed workload. Meanwhile, in typical projects huge amounts of monitoring information are logged and stored with the purpose of studying the system’s performance in search for improvements. Also research questions change as systems’ operational conditions vary throughout its lifetime. This context poses many challenges to determine the validity of simulation models. As the behavioral empirical base of the sys...

MASADA: A Modeling and Simulation Automated Data Analysis framework for continuous data-intensive validation of simulation models

CERN Document Server

Foguelman, Daniel Jacob; The ATLAS collaboration

2016-01-01

Complex networked computer systems are usually subjected to upgrades and enhancements on a continuous basis. Modeling and simulation of such systems helps with guiding their engineering processes, in particular when testing candi- date design alternatives directly on the real system is not an option. Models are built and simulation exercises are run guided by specific research and/or design questions. A vast amount of operational conditions for the real system need to be assumed in order to focus on the relevant questions at hand. A typical boundary condition for computer systems is the exogenously imposed workload. Meanwhile, in typical projects huge amounts of monitoring information are logged and stored with the purpose of studying the system’s performance in search for improvements. Also research questions change as systems’ operational conditions vary throughout its lifetime. This context poses many challenges to determine the validity of simulation models. As the behavioral empirical base of the sys...

Driver headway choice : A comparison between driving simulator and real-road driving

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Risto, M.; Martens, M.H.

2014-01-01

Driving simulators have become an established tool in driver behaviour research by offering a controllable, safe and cost-effective alternative to real world driving. A challenge for using driving simulators as a research tool has been to elicit driving behaviour that equals real world driving. With

Driver headway choice: a comparison between driving simulator and real-road driving

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Risto, Malte; Martens, Marieke Hendrikje

2014-01-01

Driving simulators have become an established tool in driver behaviour research by offering a controllable, safe and cost-effective alternative to real world driving. A challenge for using driving simulators as a research tool has been to elicit driving behaviour that equals real world driving. With

Real-time modeling and simulation of distribution feeder and distributed resources

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Pawan

The analysis of the electrical system dates back to the days when analog network analyzers were used. With the advent of digital computers, many programs were written for power-flow and short circuit analysis for the improvement of the electrical system. Real-time computer simulations can answer many what-if scenarios in the existing or the proposed power system. In this thesis, the standard IEEE 13-Node distribution feeder is developed and validated on a real-time platform OPAL-RT. The concept and the challenges of the real-time simulation are studied and addressed. Distributed energy resources include some of the commonly used distributed generation and storage devices like diesel engine, solar photovoltaic array, and battery storage system are modeled and simulated on a real-time platform. A microgrid encompasses a portion of an electric power distribution which is located downstream of the distribution substation. Normally, the microgrid operates in paralleled mode with the grid; however, scheduled or forced isolation can take place. In such conditions, the microgrid must have the ability to operate stably and autonomously. The microgrid can operate in grid connected and islanded mode, both the operating modes are studied in the last chapter. Towards the end, a simple microgrid controller modeled and simulated on the real-time platform is developed for energy management and protection for the microgrid.

Simulation-Based Internal Models for Safer Robots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Blum

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we explore the potential of mobile robots with simulation-based internal models for safety in highly dynamic environments. We propose a robot with a simulation of itself, other dynamic actors and its environment, inside itself. Operating in real time, this simulation-based internal model is able to look ahead and predict the consequences of both the robot’s own actions and those of the other dynamic actors in its vicinity. Hence, the robot continuously modifies its own actions in order to actively maintain its own safety while also achieving its goal. Inspired by the problem of how mobile robots could move quickly and safely through crowds of moving humans, we present experimental results which compare the performance of our internal simulation-based controller with a purely reactive approach as a proof-of-concept study for the practical use of simulation-based internal models.

Real-time simulator for designing electron dual scattering foil systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Carver, Robert L; Hogstrom, Kenneth R; Price, Michael J; LeBlanc, Justin D; Pitcher, Garrett M

2014-11-08

The purpose of this work was to develop a user friendly, accurate, real-time com- puter simulator to facilitate the design of dual foil scattering systems for electron beams on radiotherapy accelerators. The simulator allows for a relatively quick, initial design that can be refined and verified with subsequent Monte Carlo (MC) calculations and measurements. The simulator also is a powerful educational tool. The simulator consists of an analytical algorithm for calculating electron fluence and X-ray dose and a graphical user interface (GUI) C++ program. The algorithm predicts electron fluence using Fermi-Eyges multiple Coulomb scattering theory with the reduced Gaussian formalism for scattering powers. The simulator also estimates central-axis and off-axis X-ray dose arising from the dual foil system. Once the geometry of the accelerator is specified, the simulator allows the user to continuously vary primary scattering foil material and thickness, secondary scat- tering foil material and Gaussian shape (thickness and sigma), and beam energy. The off-axis electron relative fluence or total dose profile and central-axis X-ray dose contamination are computed and displayed in real time. The simulator was validated by comparison of off-axis electron relative fluence and X-ray percent dose profiles with those calculated using EGSnrc MC. Over the energy range 7-20 MeV, using present foils on an Elekta radiotherapy accelerator, the simulator was able to reproduce MC profiles to within 2% out to 20 cm from the central axis. The central-axis X-ray percent dose predictions matched measured data to within 0.5%. The calculation time was approximately 100 ms using a single Intel 2.93 GHz processor, which allows for real-time variation of foil geometrical parameters using slider bars. This work demonstrates how the user-friendly GUI and real-time nature of the simulator make it an effective educational tool for gaining a better understanding of the effects that various system

Options for rural electrification in Arua District, Uganda

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onzia, Joseph; Núñez Bosch, Osvaldo Manuel

2015-01-01

This study proposed a power generation system suitable for rural area application. The electrification options were proposed for secondary schools, health centres, households and trading centre loads using solar PV system, diesel fired generators, biogas co-fired diesel generators and grid extension. The study is based on simulation, modeling and optimization of renewable energy system. Designs for the options considered were based on the electricity demand and environmental conditions of Arua district. From the designs, capital costs for each option were determined. This was used in carrying out simulations in HOMER computer program to come up with the most cost effective options. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the effects of variation in costs such as diesel price and capital cost of solar PV system.Based on simulation results, it has been found that the trading centre, with 500 kW of electrical demand, must be electrified using the grid extension. The breakeven grid distance is 75.1 km. Grid extension become cost effective compared to diesel generators and solar PV system within this distance. The load at household level ranges from as low as 16 W to 5 kW. For 103 W peak load, the most cost effective option was solar PV system. The second best option was biogas co-fired diesel generator. For schools and health centres with load of up to 15 kW, biogas co-fired generator is the best compared to the total cost of 18 kW diesel fired generator which is higher. Therefore, where biogas cannot be generated, diesel generators should be used. Based on the amount of pollutants produced, a biogas co-fired diesel generator is the best option. (full text)

Immersive Simulation in Constructivist-Based Classroom E-Learning

Science.gov (United States)

McHaney, Roger; Reiter, Lauren; Reychav, Iris

2018-01-01

This article describes the development of a simulation-based online course combining sound pedagogy, educational technology, and real world expertise to provide university students with an immersive experience in storage management systems. The course developed in this example does more than use a simulation, the entire course is delivered using a…

REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT SCENARIOS IN THE PHILIPPINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Casper Agaton

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract - With the continuously rising energy demand and much dependence on imported fossil fuels, the Philippines is developing more sustainable sources of energy. Renewable energy seems to be a better alternative solution to meet the country’s energy supply and security concerns. Despite its huge potential, investment in renewable energy sources is challenged with competitive prices of fossil fuels, high start-up cost and lower feed-in tariff rates for renewables. To address these problems, this study aims to analyze energy investment scenarios in the Philippines using real options approach. This compares the attractiveness of investing in renewable energy over continuing to use coal for electricity generation under uncertainties in coal prices, investments cost, electricity prices, growth of investment in renewables, and imposing carbon tax for using fossil fuels.

Real-time simulation of aeroelastic rotor loads for horizontal axis wind turbines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marnett, M; Wellenberg, S; Schröder, W

2014-01-01

Wind turbine drivetrain research and test facilities with hardware-in-the-loop capabilities require a robust and accurate aeroelastic real-time rotor simulation environment. Recent simulation environments do not guarantee a computational response at real-time. Which is why a novel simulation tool has been developed. It resolves the physical time domain of the turbulent wind spectra and the operational response of the turbine at real-time conditions. Therefore, there is a trade-off between accuracy of the physical models and the computational costs. However, the study shows the possibility to preserve the necessary computational accuracy while simultaneously granting dynamic interaction with the aeroelastic rotor simulation environment. The achieved computational costs allow a complete aeroelastic rotor simulation at a resolution frequency of 100 Hz on standard computer platforms. Results obtained for the 5-MW reference wind turbine by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are discussed and compared to NREL's fatigue, aerodynamics, structures, and turbulence (FAST)- Code. The rotor loads show a convincing match. The novel simulation tool is applied to the wind turbine drivetrain test facility at the Center for Wind Power Drives (CWD), RWTH Aachen University to show the real-time hardware-in-the-loop capabilities

A prototype percutaneous transhepatic cholangiography training simulator with real-time breathing motion.

Science.gov (United States)

Villard, P F; Vidal, F P; Hunt, C; Bello, F; John, N W; Johnson, S; Gould, D A

2009-11-01

We present here a simulator for interventional radiology focusing on percutaneous transhepatic cholangiography (PTC). This procedure consists of inserting a needle into the biliary tree using fluoroscopy for guidance. The requirements of the simulator have been driven by a task analysis. The three main components have been identified: the respiration, the real-time X-ray display (fluoroscopy) and the haptic rendering (sense of touch). The framework for modelling the respiratory motion is based on kinematics laws and on the Chainmail algorithm. The fluoroscopic simulation is performed on the graphic card and makes use of the Beer-Lambert law to compute the X-ray attenuation. Finally, the haptic rendering is integrated to the virtual environment and takes into account the soft-tissue reaction force feedback and maintenance of the initial direction of the needle during the insertion. Five training scenarios have been created using patient-specific data. Each of these provides the user with variable breathing behaviour, fluoroscopic display tuneable to any device parameters and needle force feedback. A detailed task analysis has been used to design and build the PTC simulator described in this paper. The simulator includes real-time respiratory motion with two independent parameters (rib kinematics and diaphragm action), on-line fluoroscopy implemented on the Graphics Processing Unit and haptic feedback to feel the soft-tissue behaviour of the organs during the needle insertion.

Conversion and Validation of Distribution System Model from a QSTS-Based Tool to a Real-Time Dynamic Phasor Simulator: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chamana, Manohar; Prabakar, Kumaraguru; Palmintier, Bryan; Baggu, Murali M.

2017-04-11

A software process is developed to convert distribution network models from a quasi-static time-series tool (OpenDSS) to a real-time dynamic phasor simulator (ePHASORSIM). The description of this process in this paper would be helpful for researchers who intend to perform similar conversions. The converter could be utilized directly by users of real-time simulators who intend to perform software-in-the-loop or hardware-in-the-loop tests on large distribution test feeders for a range of use cases, including testing functions of advanced distribution management systems against a simulated distribution system. In the future, the developers intend to release the conversion tool as open source to enable use by others.

DualSPHysics: A numerical tool to simulate real breakwaters

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Feng; Crespo, Alejandro; Altomare, Corrado; Domínguez, José; Marzeddu, Andrea; Shang, Shao-ping; Gómez-Gesteira, Moncho

2018-02-01

The open-source code DualSPHysics is used in this work to compute the wave run-up in an existing dike in the Chinese coast using realistic dimensions, bathymetry and wave conditions. The GPU computing power of the DualSPHysics allows simulating real-engineering problems that involve complex geometries with a high resolution in a reasonable computational time. The code is first validated by comparing the numerical free-surface elevation, the wave orbital velocities and the time series of the run-up with physical data in a wave flume. Those experiments include a smooth dike and an armored dike with two layers of cubic blocks. After validation, the code is applied to a real case to obtain the wave run-up under different incident wave conditions. In order to simulate the real open sea, the spurious reflections from the wavemaker are removed by using an active wave absorption technique.

Real time hardware-in-loop simulation of ESMO satellite attitude control system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rune Finnset

2006-04-01

Full Text Available This paper studies attitude control of the ESMO satellite using six reaction thrusters. Bang-bang control with dead-zone and Pulse-Width Modulation (PWM for the modulation of the on-time of the thrusters are treated. Closed loop hardware-in-loop simulations, using themicrocontroller unit (MCU Microchip PIC18F452 for implementation of attitude control and MatLab in a standard PC for simulating satellite dynamics, are carried out. Results for real time simulation are compared with autonomous simulations. The controller gives a satisfactory performance in the real time environment.

a Real-Time GIS Platform for High Sour Gas Leakage Simulation, Evaluation and Visualization

Science.gov (United States)

Li, M.; Liu, H.; Yang, C.

2015-07-01

The development of high-sulfur gas fields, also known as sour gas field, is faced with a series of safety control and emergency management problems. The GIS-based emergency response system is placed high expectations under the consideration of high pressure, high content, complex terrain and highly density population in Sichuan Basin, southwest China. The most researches on high hydrogen sulphide gas dispersion simulation and evaluation are used for environmental impact assessment (EIA) or emergency preparedness planning. This paper introduces a real-time GIS platform for high-sulfur gas emergency response. Combining with real-time data from the leak detection systems and the meteorological monitoring stations, GIS platform provides the functions of simulating, evaluating and displaying of the different spatial-temporal toxic gas distribution patterns and evaluation results. This paper firstly proposes the architecture of Emergency Response/Management System, secondly explains EPA's Gaussian dispersion model CALPUFF simulation workflow under high complex terrain and real-time data, thirdly explains the emergency workflow and spatial analysis functions of computing the accident influencing areas, population and the optimal evacuation routes. Finally, a well blow scenarios is used for verify the system. The study shows that GIS platform which integrates the real-time data and CALPUFF models will be one of the essential operational platforms for high-sulfur gas fields emergency management.

A MARTe based simulator for the JET Vertical Stabilization system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bellizio, Teresa, E-mail: teresa.bellizio@unina.it [Associazione EURATOM-ENEA-CREATE, University di Napoli Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Napoli (Italy); De Tommasi, Gianmaria; Risoli, Nicola; Albanese, Raffaele [Associazione EURATOM-ENEA-CREATE, University di Napoli Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Napoli (Italy); Neto, Andre [Associacao EURATOM/IST, Inst. de Plasmas e Fusao Nuclear - Laboratorio Associado, Instituto Superior, Tecnico, P-1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)

2011-10-15

Validation by means of simulation is a crucial step when developing real-time control systems. Modeling and simulation are an essential tool since the early design phase, when the control algorithms are designed and tested. This phase is commonly carried out in off-line environments such as Matlab and Simulink. A MARTe-based simulator has been recently developed to validate the new JET Vertical Stabilization (VS) system. MARTe is the multi-thread framework used at JET to deploy hard real-time control systems. This paper presents the software architecture of the MARTe-based simulator and it shows how this tool has been effectively used to evaluate the effects of Edge Localized Modes (ELMs) on the VS system. By using the simulator it is possible to analyze different plasma configurations, extrapolating the limit of the new vertical amplifier in terms of the energy of the largest rejectable ELM.

Real-time numerical simulation of the Carnot cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hurkala, J; Gall, M; Kutner, R; Maciejczyk, M

2005-01-01

We developed a highly interactive, multi-windows Java applet which made it possible to simulate and visualize within any platform and internet the Carnot cycle (or engine) in a real-time computer experiment. We extended our previous model and algorithm (Galant et al 2003 Heat Transfer, Newton's Law of Cooling and the Law of Entropy Increase Simulated by the Real-Time Computer Experiments in Java (Lecture Notes in Computer Science vol 2657) pp 45-53, Gall and Kutner 2005 Molecular mechanisms of heat transfer: Debye relaxation versus power-law Physica A 352 347-78) to simulate not only the heat flow but also the macroscopic movement of the piston. Since in reality it is impossible to construct a reversible Carnot engine, the question arises whether it is possible to simulate it at least in a numerical experiment? The positive answer to this question which we found is related to our model and algorithm which make it possible to omit the many-body problem arising when many gas particles simultaneously interact with the mobile piston. As usual, the considerations of phenomenological thermodynamics began with a study of the basic properties of heat engines, hence our approach, besides intrinsic physical significance, is also important from the educational, technological and even environmental points of view

Real-time simulation of the nonlinear visco-elastic deformations of soft tissues.

Science.gov (United States)

Basafa, Ehsan; Farahmand, Farzam

2011-05-01

Mass-spring-damper (MSD) models are often used for real-time surgery simulation due to their fast response and fairly realistic deformation replication. An improved real time simulation model of soft tissue deformation due to a laparoscopic surgical indenter was developed and tested. The mechanical realization of conventional MSD models was improved using nonlinear springs and nodal dampers, while their high computational efficiency was maintained using an adapted implicit integration algorithm. New practical algorithms for model parameter tuning, collision detection, and simulation were incorporated. The model was able to replicate complex biological soft tissue mechanical properties under large deformations, i.e., the nonlinear and viscoelastic behaviors. The simulated response of the model after tuning of its parameters to the experimental data of a deer liver sample, closely tracked the reference data with high correlation and maximum relative differences of less than 5 and 10%, for the tuning and testing data sets respectively. Finally, implementation of the proposed model and algorithms in a graphical environment resulted in a real-time simulation with update rates of 150 Hz for interactive deformation and haptic manipulation, and 30 Hz for visual rendering. The proposed real time simulation model of soft tissue deformation due to a laparoscopic surgical indenter was efficient, realistic, and accurate in ex vivo testing. This model is a suitable candidate for testing in vivo during laparoscopic surgery.

A system for EPID-based real-time treatment delivery verification during dynamic IMRT treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuangrod, Todsaporn; Woodruff, Henry C; van Uytven, Eric; McCurdy, Boyd M C; Kuncic, Zdenka; O'Connor, Daryl J; Greer, Peter B

2013-09-01

To design and develop a real-time electronic portal imaging device (EPID)-based delivery verification system for dynamic intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) which enables detection of gross treatment delivery errors before delivery of substantial radiation to the patient. The system utilizes a comprehensive physics-based model to generate a series of predicted transit EPID image frames as a reference dataset and compares these to measured EPID frames acquired during treatment. The two datasets are using MLC aperture comparison and cumulative signal checking techniques. The system operation in real-time was simulated offline using previously acquired images for 19 IMRT patient deliveries with both frame-by-frame comparison and cumulative frame comparison. Simulated error case studies were used to demonstrate the system sensitivity and performance. The accuracy of the synchronization method was shown to agree within two control points which corresponds to approximately ∼1% of the total MU to be delivered for dynamic IMRT. The system achieved mean real-time gamma results for frame-by-frame analysis of 86.6% and 89.0% for 3%, 3 mm and 4%, 4 mm criteria, respectively, and 97.9% and 98.6% for cumulative gamma analysis. The system can detect a 10% MU error using 3%, 3 mm criteria within approximately 10 s. The EPID-based real-time delivery verification system successfully detected simulated gross errors introduced into patient plan deliveries in near real-time (within 0.1 s). A real-time radiation delivery verification system for dynamic IMRT has been demonstrated that is designed to prevent major mistreatments in modern radiation therapy.

Vision-based overlay of a virtual object into real scene for designing room interior

Science.gov (United States)

Harasaki, Shunsuke; Saito, Hideo

2001-10-01

In this paper, we introduce a geometric registration method for augmented reality (AR) and an application system, interior simulator, in which a virtual (CG) object can be overlaid into a real world space. Interior simulator is developed as an example of an AR application of the proposed method. Using interior simulator, users can visually simulate the location of virtual furniture and articles in the living room so that they can easily design the living room interior without placing real furniture and articles, by viewing from many different locations and orientations in real-time. In our system, two base images of a real world space are captured from two different views for defining a projective coordinate of object 3D space. Then each projective view of a virtual object in the base images are registered interactively. After such coordinate determination, an image sequence of a real world space is captured by hand-held camera with tracking non-metric measured feature points for overlaying a virtual object. Virtual objects can be overlaid onto the image sequence by taking each relationship between the images. With the proposed system, 3D position tracking device, such as magnetic trackers, are not required for the overlay of virtual objects. Experimental results demonstrate that 3D virtual furniture can be overlaid into an image sequence of the scene of a living room nearly at video rate (20 frames per second).

What makes and what does not make a real option? A study of equity shares in international joint ventures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cuypers, I.R.P.; Martin, Xavier

2010-01-01

This paper examines the boundaries of real options logic, with an application to joint ventures (JVs). We distinguish between forms of uncertainty that are resolved endogenously and those that are resolved exogenously, and theorize that only exogenous uncertainty will have the impact predicted by

Simulating Photon Mapping for Real-time Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Bent Dalgaard; Christensen, Niels Jørgen

2004-01-01

This paper introduces a novel method for simulating photon mapping for real-time applications. First we introduce a new method for selectively redistributing photons. Then we describe a method for selectively updating the indirect illumination. The indirect illumination is calculated using a new...... GPU accelerated final gathering method and the illumination is then stored in light maps. Caustic photons are traced on the CPU and then drawn using points in the framebuffer, and finally filtered using the GPU. Both diffuse and non-diffuse surfaces can be handled by calculating the direct...... illumination on the GPU and the photon tracing on the CPU. We achieve real-time frame rates for dynamic scenes....

Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose

2010-01-01

The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

Reducing uncertainty in load forecasts and using real options for improving capacity dispatch management through the utilization of weather and hydrologic forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, T.

2004-01-01

The effect of weather on electricity markets was discussed with particular focus on reducing weather uncertainty by improving short term weather forecasts. The implications of weather for hydroelectric power dispatch and use were also discussed. Although some errors in weather forecasting can result in economic benefits, most errors are associated with more costs than benefits. This presentation described how a real options analysis can make weather a favorable option. Four case studies were presented for exploratory data analysis of regional weather phenomena. These included: (1) the 2001 California electricity crisis, (2) the delta breeze effects on the California ISO, (3) the summer 2002 weather forecast error for ISO New England, and (4) the hydro plant asset valuation using weather uncertainty. It was concluded that there is a need for more economic methodological studies on the effect of weather on energy markets and costs. It was suggested that the real options theory should be applied to weather planning and utility applications. tabs., figs

High Fidelity, “Faster than Real-Time” Simulator for Predicting Power System Dynamic Behavior - Final Technical Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flueck, Alex [Illinois Inst. of Technology, Chicago, IL (United States)

2017-07-14

The “High Fidelity, Faster than Real­Time Simulator for Predicting Power System Dynamic Behavior” was designed and developed by Illinois Institute of Technology with critical contributions from Electrocon International, Argonne National Laboratory, Alstom Grid and McCoy Energy. Also essential to the project were our two utility partners: Commonwealth Edison and AltaLink. The project was a success due to several major breakthroughs in the area of large­scale power system dynamics simulation, including (1) a validated faster than real­ time simulation of both stable and unstable transient dynamics in a large­scale positive sequence transmission grid model, (2) a three­phase unbalanced simulation platform for modeling new grid devices, such as independently controlled single­phase static var compensators (SVCs), (3) the world’s first high fidelity three­phase unbalanced dynamics and protection simulator based on Electrocon’s CAPE program, and (4) a first­of­its­ kind implementation of a single­phase induction motor model with stall capability. The simulator results will aid power grid operators in their true time of need, when there is a significant risk of cascading outages. The simulator will accelerate performance and enhance accuracy of dynamics simulations, enabling operators to maintain reliability and steer clear of blackouts. In the long­term, the simulator will form the backbone of the newly conceived hybrid real­time protection and control architecture that will coordinate local controls, wide­area measurements, wide­area controls and advanced real­time prediction capabilities. The nation’s citizens will benefit in several ways, including (1) less down time from power outages due to the faster­than­real­time simulator’s predictive capability, (2) higher levels of reliability due to the detailed dynamics plus protection simulation capability, and (3) more resiliency due to the three­ phase unbalanced simulator’s ability to

Towards real-time regional earthquake simulation I: real-time moment tensor monitoring (RMT) for regional events in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Cheng, Hui-Wen; Tu, Feng-Shan; Ma, Kuo-Fong; Tsuruoka, Hiroshi; Kawakatsu, Hitoshi; Huang, Bor-Shouh; Liu, Chun-Chi

2014-01-01

We have developed a real-time moment tensor monitoring system (RMT) which takes advantage of a grid-based moment tensor inversion technique and real-time broad-band seismic recordings to automatically monitor earthquake activities in the vicinity of Taiwan. The centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion technique and a grid search scheme are applied to obtain the information of earthquake source parameters, including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism. All of these source parameters can be determined simultaneously within 117 s after the occurrence of an earthquake. The monitoring area involves the entire Taiwan Island and the offshore region, which covers the area of 119.3°E to 123.0°E and 21.0°N to 26.0°N, with a depth from 6 to 136 km. A 3-D grid system is implemented in the monitoring area with a uniform horizontal interval of 0.1° and a vertical interval of 10 km. The inversion procedure is based on a 1-D Green's function database calculated by the frequency-wavenumber (fk) method. We compare our results with the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) catalogue data for earthquakes occurred between 2010 and 2012. The average differences between event origin time and hypocentral location are less than 2 s and 10 km, respectively. The focal mechanisms determined by RMT are also comparable with the Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology (BATS) CMT solutions. These results indicate that the RMT system is realizable and efficient to monitor local seismic activities. In addition, the time needed to obtain all the point source parameters is reduced substantially compared to routine earthquake reports. By connecting RMT with a real-time online earthquake simulation (ROS) system, all the source parameters will be forwarded to the ROS to make the real-time earthquake simulation feasible. The RMT has operated offline (2010-2011) and online (since January 2012 to present) at the Institute of Earth Sciences (IES), Academia Sinica

Physiological Based Simulator Fidelity Design Guidance

Science.gov (United States)

Schnell, Thomas; Hamel, Nancy; Postnikov, Alex; Hoke, Jaclyn; McLean, Angus L. M. Thom, III

2012-01-01

The evolution of the role of flight simulation has reinforced assumptions in aviation that the degree of realism in a simulation system directly correlates to the training benefit, i.e., more fidelity is always better. The construct of fidelity has several dimensions, including physical fidelity, functional fidelity, and cognitive fidelity. Interaction of different fidelity dimensions has an impact on trainee immersion, presence, and transfer of training. This paper discusses research results of a recent study that investigated if physiological-based methods could be used to determine the required level of simulator fidelity. Pilots performed a relatively complex flight task consisting of mission task elements of various levels of difficulty in a fixed base flight simulator and a real fighter jet trainer aircraft. Flight runs were performed using one forward visual channel of 40 deg. field of view for the lowest level of fidelity, 120 deg. field of view for the middle level of fidelity, and unrestricted field of view and full dynamic acceleration in the real airplane. Neuro-cognitive and physiological measures were collected under these conditions using the Cognitive Avionics Tool Set (CATS) and nonlinear closed form models for workload prediction were generated based on these data for the various mission task elements. One finding of the work described herein is that simple heart rate is a relatively good predictor of cognitive workload, even for short tasks with dynamic changes in cognitive loading. Additionally, we found that models that used a wide range of physiological and neuro-cognitive measures can further boost the accuracy of the workload prediction.

An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, S.-L.

2010-01-01

This paper presents an improved decision model based on the real options approach presented by for the firms that have not yet established energy-saving equipment under the entry and exit strategies. Furthermore, the proposed model takes account of the inevitable equipment renewal and the occurrence of unexpected events under the Poisson jump process. The timing for terminating an investment when continuous operations of that business are unprofitable is also explored to realize the optimal timing of implementing the energy-saving strategy. The future discounted benefit B follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. A numerical analysis is followed by a sensitivity study of various parameters to better realize their impacts on the entry and exit thresholds. The results show that for the jump case, the higher probability of occurrence of unfavorable events will result in a higher entry threshold and lower exit threshold. Investors are forced to request higher benefit thresholds to cover the higher probability of losses brought by unfavorable events.

Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

2017-05-01

The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield

Stock and option portfolio using fuzzy logic approach

Science.gov (United States)

Sumarti, Novriana; Wahyudi, Nanang

2014-03-01

Fuzzy Logic in decision-making process has been widely implemented in various problems in industries. It is the theory of imprecision and uncertainty that was not based on probability theory. Fuzzy Logic adds values of degree between absolute true and absolute false. It starts with and builds on a set of human language rules supplied by the user. The fuzzy systems convert these rules to their mathematical equivalents. This could simplify the job of the system designer and the computer, and results in much more accurate representations of the way systems behave in the real world. In this paper we examine the decision making process of stock and option trading by the usage of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) technical analysis and Option Pricing with Fuzzy Logic approach. MACD technical analysis is for the prediction of the trends of underlying stock prices, such as bearish (going downward), bullish (going upward), and sideways. By using Fuzzy C-Means technique and Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System, we define the decision output where the value of MACD is high then decision is "Strong Sell", and the value of MACD is Low then the decision is "Strong Buy". We also implement the fuzzification of the Black-Scholes option-pricing formula. The stock and options methods are implemented on a portfolio of one stock and its options. Even though the values of input data, such as interest rates, stock price and its volatility, cannot be obtain accurately, these fuzzy methods can give a belief degree of the calculated the Black-Scholes formula so we can make the decision on option trading. The results show the good capability of the methods in the prediction of stock price trends. The performance of the simulated portfolio for a particular period of time also shows good return.

THE VALUATION OF INITIAL SHARE PRICE USING THE FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM METHOD AND THE REAL OPTION METHOD IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adhy Listya Paramitha

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The purposes of this study were to determine fair share value, to analyze the factors that influence undervalue and overvalue, and to determine the best valuation method. This study made valuation using real options method and free cash flow to firm method. The results of partial logistic regression on Free Cash Flow to Firm showed that tenor variable and equity variable had positive and significant effects, while dummy variable had a negative and significant effect. In the real option model, tenor variable and implied volatility variable had positive and significant effects, while sheets of share variable had a negative and significant effect

Draft Forecasts from Real-Time Runs of Physics-Based Models - A Road to the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Hesse, Michael; Rastatter, Lutz; MacNeice, Peter; Kuznetsova, Masha

2008-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second focus of CCMC activities is on validation and verification of space weather models, and on the transition of appropriate models to space weather forecast centers. As part of the latter activity, the CCMC develops real-time simulation systems that stress models through routine execution. A by-product of these real-time calculations is the ability to derive model products, which may be useful for space weather operators. After consultations with NOAA/SEC and with AFWA, CCMC has developed a set of tools as a first step to make real-time model output useful to forecast centers. In this presentation, we will discuss the motivation for this activity, the actions taken so far, and options for future tools from model output.

A system for EPID-based real-time treatment delivery verification during dynamic IMRT treatment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fuangrod, Todsaporn [Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, the University of Newcastle, NSW 2308 (Australia); Woodruff, Henry C.; O’Connor, Daryl J. [Faculty of Science and IT, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, the University of Newcastle, NSW 2308 (Australia); Uytven, Eric van; McCurdy, Boyd M. C. [Division of Medical Physics, CancerCare Manitoba, 675 McDermot Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3E 0V9 (Canada); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2N2 (Canada); Department of Radiology, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2N2 (Canada); Kuncic, Zdenka [School of Physics, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Greer, Peter B. [Faculty of Science and IT, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, the University of Newcastle, NSW 2308, Australia and Department of Radiation Oncology, Calvary Mater Newcastle Hospital, Locked Bag 7, Hunter region Mail Centre, Newcastle, NSW 2310 (Australia)

2013-09-15

Purpose: To design and develop a real-time electronic portal imaging device (EPID)-based delivery verification system for dynamic intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) which enables detection of gross treatment delivery errors before delivery of substantial radiation to the patient.Methods: The system utilizes a comprehensive physics-based model to generate a series of predicted transit EPID image frames as a reference dataset and compares these to measured EPID frames acquired during treatment. The two datasets are using MLC aperture comparison and cumulative signal checking techniques. The system operation in real-time was simulated offline using previously acquired images for 19 IMRT patient deliveries with both frame-by-frame comparison and cumulative frame comparison. Simulated error case studies were used to demonstrate the system sensitivity and performance.Results: The accuracy of the synchronization method was shown to agree within two control points which corresponds to approximately ∼1% of the total MU to be delivered for dynamic IMRT. The system achieved mean real-time gamma results for frame-by-frame analysis of 86.6% and 89.0% for 3%, 3 mm and 4%, 4 mm criteria, respectively, and 97.9% and 98.6% for cumulative gamma analysis. The system can detect a 10% MU error using 3%, 3 mm criteria within approximately 10 s. The EPID-based real-time delivery verification system successfully detected simulated gross errors introduced into patient plan deliveries in near real-time (within 0.1 s).Conclusions: A real-time radiation delivery verification system for dynamic IMRT has been demonstrated that is designed to prevent major mistreatments in modern radiation therapy.

A system for EPID-based real-time treatment delivery verification during dynamic IMRT treatment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuangrod, Todsaporn; Woodruff, Henry C.; O’Connor, Daryl J.; Uytven, Eric van; McCurdy, Boyd M. C.; Kuncic, Zdenka; Greer, Peter B.

2013-01-01

Purpose: To design and develop a real-time electronic portal imaging device (EPID)-based delivery verification system for dynamic intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) which enables detection of gross treatment delivery errors before delivery of substantial radiation to the patient.Methods: The system utilizes a comprehensive physics-based model to generate a series of predicted transit EPID image frames as a reference dataset and compares these to measured EPID frames acquired during treatment. The two datasets are using MLC aperture comparison and cumulative signal checking techniques. The system operation in real-time was simulated offline using previously acquired images for 19 IMRT patient deliveries with both frame-by-frame comparison and cumulative frame comparison. Simulated error case studies were used to demonstrate the system sensitivity and performance.Results: The accuracy of the synchronization method was shown to agree within two control points which corresponds to approximately ∼1% of the total MU to be delivered for dynamic IMRT. The system achieved mean real-time gamma results for frame-by-frame analysis of 86.6% and 89.0% for 3%, 3 mm and 4%, 4 mm criteria, respectively, and 97.9% and 98.6% for cumulative gamma analysis. The system can detect a 10% MU error using 3%, 3 mm criteria within approximately 10 s. The EPID-based real-time delivery verification system successfully detected simulated gross errors introduced into patient plan deliveries in near real-time (within 0.1 s).Conclusions: A real-time radiation delivery verification system for dynamic IMRT has been demonstrated that is designed to prevent major mistreatments in modern radiation therapy

Real-space grids and the Octopus code as tools for the development of new simulation approaches for electronic systems

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, Xavier; Strubbe, David; De Giovannini, Umberto; Larsen, Ask Hjorth; Oliveira, Micael J. T.; Alberdi-Rodriguez, Joseba; Varas, Alejandro; Theophilou, Iris; Helbig, Nicole; Verstraete, Matthieu J.; Stella, Lorenzo; Nogueira, Fernando; Aspuru-Guzik, Alán; Castro, Alberto; Marques, Miguel A. L.; Rubio, Angel

Real-space grids are a powerful alternative for the simulation of electronic systems. One of the main advantages of the approach is the flexibility and simplicity of working directly in real space where the different fields are discretized on a grid, combined with competitive numerical performance and great potential for parallelization. These properties constitute a great advantage at the time of implementing and testing new physical models. Based on our experience with the Octopus code, in this article we discuss how the real-space approach has allowed for the recent development of new ideas for the simulation of electronic systems. Among these applications are approaches to calculate response properties, modeling of photoemission, optimal control of quantum systems, simulation of plasmonic systems, and the exact solution of the Schr\\"odinger equation for low-dimensionality systems.

SU-D-BRF-06: A Brachytherapy Simulator with Realistic Haptic Force Feedback and Real-Time Ultrasounds Image Simulation for Training and Teaching

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beaulieu, L; Carette, A; Comtois, S; Lavigueur, M; Cardou, P; Laurendeau, D

2014-01-01

Purpose: Surgical procedures require dexterity, expertise and repetition to reach optimal patient outcomes. However, efficient training opportunities are usually limited. This work presents a simulator system with realistic haptic force-feedback and full, real-time ultrasounds image simulation. Methods: The simulator is composed of a custom-made Linear-DELTA force-feedback robotic platform. The needle tip is mounted on a force gauge at the end effector of the robot, which responds to needle insertion by providing reaction forces. 3D geometry of the tissue is using a tetrahedral finite element mesh (FEM) mimicking tissue properties. As the needle is inserted/retracted, tissue deformation is computed using a mass-tensor nonlinear visco-elastic FEM. The real-time deformation is fed to the L-DELTA to take into account the force imparted to the needle, providing feedback to the end-user when crossing tissue boundaries or needle bending. Real-time 2D US image is also generated synchronously showing anatomy, needle insertion and tissue deformation. The simulator is running on an Intel I7 6- core CPU at 3.26 MHz. 3D tissue rendering and ultrasound display are performed on a Windows 7 computer; the FEM computation and L-DELTA control are executed on a similar PC using the Neutrino real-time OS. Both machines communicate through an Ethernet link. Results: The system runs at 500 Hz for a 8333-tetrahedron tissue mesh and a 100-node angular spring needle model. This frame rate ensures a relatively smooth displacement of the needle when pushed or retracted (±20 N in all directions at speeds of up to 2 m/s). Unlike commercially-available haptic platforms, the oblong workspace of the L-DELTA robot complies with that required for brachytherapy needle displacements of 0.1m by 0.1m by 0.25m. Conclusion: We have demonstrated a real-life, realistic brachytherapy simulator developed for prostate implants (LDR/HDR). The platform could be adapted to other sites or training for other

Semi-physical Simulation of the Airborne InSAR based on Rigorous Geometric Model and Real Navigation Data

Science.gov (United States)

Changyong, Dou; Huadong, Guo; Chunming, Han; yuquan, Liu; Xijuan, Yue; Yinghui, Zhao

2014-03-01

Raw signal simulation is a useful tool for the system design, mission planning, processing algorithm testing, and inversion algorithm design of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Due to the wide and high frequent variation of aircraft's trajectory and attitude, and the low accuracy of the Position and Orientation System (POS)'s recording data, it's difficult to quantitatively study the sensitivity of the key parameters, i.e., the baseline length and inclination, absolute phase and the orientation of the antennas etc., of the airborne Interferometric SAR (InSAR) system, resulting in challenges for its applications. Furthermore, the imprecise estimation of the installation offset between the Global Positioning System (GPS), Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) and the InSAR antennas compounds the issue. An airborne interferometric SAR (InSAR) simulation based on the rigorous geometric model and real navigation data is proposed in this paper, providing a way for quantitatively studying the key parameters and for evaluating the effect from the parameters on the applications of airborne InSAR, as photogrammetric mapping, high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) generation, and surface deformation by Differential InSAR technology, etc. The simulation can also provide reference for the optimal design of the InSAR system and the improvement of InSAR data processing technologies such as motion compensation, imaging, image co-registration, and application parameter retrieval, etc.

Semi-physical Simulation of the Airborne InSAR based on Rigorous Geometric Model and Real Navigation Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Changyong, Dou; Huadong, Guo; Chunming, Han; Yuquan, Liu; Xijuan, Yue; Yinghui, Zhao

2014-01-01

Raw signal simulation is a useful tool for the system design, mission planning, processing algorithm testing, and inversion algorithm design of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Due to the wide and high frequent variation of aircraft's trajectory and attitude, and the low accuracy of the Position and Orientation System (POS)'s recording data, it's difficult to quantitatively study the sensitivity of the key parameters, i.e., the baseline length and inclination, absolute phase and the orientation of the antennas etc., of the airborne Interferometric SAR (InSAR) system, resulting in challenges for its applications. Furthermore, the imprecise estimation of the installation offset between the Global Positioning System (GPS), Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) and the InSAR antennas compounds the issue. An airborne interferometric SAR (InSAR) simulation based on the rigorous geometric model and real navigation data is proposed in this paper, providing a way for quantitatively studying the key parameters and for evaluating the effect from the parameters on the applications of airborne InSAR, as photogrammetric mapping, high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) generation, and surface deformation by Differential InSAR technology, etc. The simulation can also provide reference for the optimal design of the InSAR system and the improvement of InSAR data processing technologies such as motion compensation, imaging, image co-registration, and application parameter retrieval, etc

A java based simulator with user interface to simulate ventilated patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stehle P.

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Mechanical ventilation is a life-saving intervention, which despite its use on a routine basis, poses the risk of inflicting further damage to the lung tissue if ventilator settings are chosen inappropriately. Medical decision support systems may help to prevent such injuries while providing the optimal settings to reach a defined clinical goal. In order to develop and verify decision support algorithms, a test bench simulating a patient’s behaviour is needed. We propose a Java based system that allows simulation of respiratory mechanics, gas exchange and cardiovascular dynamics of a mechanically ventilated patient. The implemented models are allowed to interact and are interchangeable enabling the simulation of various clinical scenarios. Model simulations are running in real-time and show physiologically plausible results.

An Application of the Real Options Method to the Valuation of a License to Operate 3G Mobile Phone Service in Brazil.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Stille

2010-10-01

Full Text Available We analyze the contributions of the real option method to the decision making process in the telecommunications industry. We study the case of a public auction purchase of the license to operate a 3G mobile phone system in Brazil. The results indicate that the embedded flexibilities increase the value of the project by 64% in relative to the discounted cash flow method, which could justify the high premiums paid by the winning firms, which are incompatible with the value obtained from traditional methods of analysis. This suggests that the real options approach used, which can be easily replicated and is fairly intuitive, can be a useful tool to support the decision making process of these firms.

Dynamic Beam Solutions for Real-Time Simulation and Control Development of Flexible Rockets

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Weihua; King, Cecilia K.; Clark, Scott R.; Griffin, Edwin D.; Suhey, Jeffrey D.; Wolf, Michael G.

2016-01-01

In this study, flexible rockets are structurally represented by linear beams. Both direct and indirect solutions of beam dynamic equations are sought to facilitate real-time simulation and control development for flexible rockets. The direct solution is completed by numerically integrate the beam structural dynamic equation using an explicit Newmark-based scheme, which allows for stable and fast transient solutions to the dynamics of flexile rockets. Furthermore, in the real-time operation, the bending strain of the beam is measured by fiber optical sensors (FOS) at intermittent locations along the span, while both angular velocity and translational acceleration are measured at a single point by the inertial measurement unit (IMU). Another study in this paper is to find the analytical and numerical solutions of the beam dynamics based on the limited measurement data to facilitate the real-time control development. Numerical studies demonstrate the accuracy of these real-time solutions to the beam dynamics. Such analytical and numerical solutions, when integrated with data processing and control algorithms and mechanisms, have the potential to increase launch availability by processing flight data into the flexible launch vehicle's control system.

Comparison of calculation and simulation of evacuation in real buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Szénay, Martin; Lopušniak, Martin

2018-03-01

Each building must meet requirements for safe evacuation in order to prevent casualties. Therefore methods for evaluation of evacuation are used when designing buildings. In the paper, calculation methods were tested on three real buildings. The testing used methods of evacuation time calculation pursuant to Slovak standards and evacuation time calculation using the buildingExodus simulation software. If calculation methods have been suitably selected taking into account the nature of evacuation and at the same time if correct values of parameters were entered, we will be able to obtain almost identical times of evacuation in comparison with real results obtained from simulation. The difference can range from 1% to 27%.

Method to Calculate the Electricity Generated by a Photovoltaic Cell, Based on Its Mathematical Model Simulations in MATLAB

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Morcillo-Herrera

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a practical method for calculating the electrical energy generated by a PV panel (kWhr through MATLAB simulations based on the mathematical model of the cell, which obtains the “Mean Maximum Power Point” (MMPP in the characteristic V-P curve, in response to evaluating historical climate data at specific location. This five-step method calculates through MMPP per day, per month, or per year, the power yield by unit area, then electrical energy generated by PV panel, and its real conversion efficiency. To validate the method, it was applied to Sewage Treatment Plant for a Group of Drinking Water and Sewerage of Yucatan (JAPAY, México, testing 250 Wp photovoltaic panels of five different manufacturers. As a result, the performance, the real conversion efficiency, and the electricity generated by five different PV panels in evaluation were obtained and show the best technical-economic option to develop the PV generation project.

Real-Time Agent-Based Modeling Simulation with in-situ Visualization of Complex Biological Systems: A Case Study on Vocal Fold Inflammation and Healing.

Science.gov (United States)

Seekhao, Nuttiiya; Shung, Caroline; JaJa, Joseph; Mongeau, Luc; Li-Jessen, Nicole Y K

2016-05-01

We present an efficient and scalable scheme for implementing agent-based modeling (ABM) simulation with In Situ visualization of large complex systems on heterogeneous computing platforms. The scheme is designed to make optimal use of the resources available on a heterogeneous platform consisting of a multicore CPU and a GPU, resulting in minimal to no resource idle time. Furthermore, the scheme was implemented under a client-server paradigm that enables remote users to visualize and analyze simulation data as it is being generated at each time step of the model. Performance of a simulation case study of vocal fold inflammation and wound healing with 3.8 million agents shows 35× and 7× speedup in execution time over single-core and multi-core CPU respectively. Each iteration of the model took less than 200 ms to simulate, visualize and send the results to the client. This enables users to monitor the simulation in real-time and modify its course as needed.

Power in the loop real time simulation platform for renewable energy generation

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yang; Shi, Wenhui; Zhang, Xing; He, Guoqing

2018-02-01

Nowadays, a large scale of renewable energy sources has been connecting to power system and the real time simulation platform is widely used to carry out research on integration control algorithm, power system stability etc. Compared to traditional pure digital simulation and hardware in the loop simulation, power in the loop simulation has higher accuracy and degree of reliability. In this paper, a power in the loop analog digital hybrid simulation platform has been built and it can be used not only for the single generation unit connecting to grid, but also for multiple new energy generation units connecting to grid. A wind generator inertia control experiment was carried out on the platform. The structure of the inertia control platform was researched and the results verify that the platform is up to need for renewable power in the loop real time simulation.

Toward transient finite element simulation of thermal deformation of machine tools in real-time

Science.gov (United States)

Naumann, Andreas; Ruprecht, Daniel; Wensch, Joerg

2018-01-01

Finite element models without simplifying assumptions can accurately describe the spatial and temporal distribution of heat in machine tools as well as the resulting deformation. In principle, this allows to correct for displacements of the Tool Centre Point and enables high precision manufacturing. However, the computational cost of FE models and restriction to generic algorithms in commercial tools like ANSYS prevents their operational use since simulations have to run faster than real-time. For the case where heat diffusion is slow compared to machine movement, we introduce a tailored implicit-explicit multi-rate time stepping method of higher order based on spectral deferred corrections. Using the open-source FEM library DUNE, we show that fully coupled simulations of the temperature field are possible in real-time for a machine consisting of a stock sliding up and down on rails attached to a stand.

A Real-Time Simulation Platform for Power System Operation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cha, Seung-Tae; Østergaard, Jacob; Wu, Qiuwei

2010-01-01

This paper describes the real-time digital simulation platform that can be used for power system operation, analysis, and power system modeling. This particular platform gives grid operators, planners and researchers the opportunity to observe how a power system behaves and can be used...... in real time. Various phenomena commonly encountered when dealing with the two-area system is studied. Despite its small size, it mimics very closely the behavior of typical systems in actual operation. The electromagnetic transient type of simulation made in RSCAD enables the study of fast and detailed...... phenomena like single-phase faults in the two-area network and to observe their effects on a larger time scale. Also, the case study of 11 bus system with 5 generators has been also used and the results are presented....

In Patients with Cirrhosis, Driving Simulator Performance is Associated With Real-life Driving

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauridsen, Mette Enok Munk; Thacker, Leroy R; White, Melanie B

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) has been linked to higher real-life rates of automobile crashes and poor performance in driving simulation studies, but the link between driving simulator performance and real-life automobile crashes has not been clearly established. Further......, not all patients with MHE are unsafe drivers, but it is unclear how to distinguish them from unsafe drivers. We investigated the link between performance on driving simulators and real-life automobile accidents and traffic violations. We also aimed to identify features of unsafe drivers with cirrhosis...... and evaluated changes in simulated driving skills and MHE status after 1 year. METHODS: We performed a study of outpatients with cirrhosis (n=205; median 55 years old; median model for end-stage liver disease score, 9.5; none with overt hepatic encephalopathy or alcohol or illicit drug use within previous 6...

COEL: A Cloud-based Reaction Network Simulator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter eBanda

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Chemical Reaction Networks (CRNs are a formalism to describe the macroscopic behavior of chemical systems. We introduce COEL, a web- and cloud-based CRN simulation framework that does not require a local installation, runs simulations on a large computational grid, provides reliable database storage, and offers a visually pleasing and intuitive user interface. We present an overview of the underlying software, the technologies, and the main architectural approaches employed. Some of COEL's key features include ODE-based simulations of CRNs and multicompartment reaction networks with rich interaction options, a built-in plotting engine, automatic DNA-strand displacement transformation and visualization, SBML/Octave/Matlab export, and a built-in genetic-algorithm-based optimization toolbox for rate constants.COEL is an open-source project hosted on GitHub (http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.46544, which allows interested research groups to deploy it on their own sever. Regular users can simply use the web instance at no cost at http://coel-sim.org. The framework is ideally suited for a collaborative use in both research and education.

Real-time simulation requirements for study and optimization of power system controls

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakra, Harbans; McCallum, David; Gagnon, Charles [Institut de Recherche d` Hydro-Quebec, Quebec, PQ (Canada); Venne, Andre; Gagnon, Julien [Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

1994-12-31

At the time of ordering for the multi-terminal dc system linking Hydro-Quebec with New England, Hydro-Quebec also ordered functionally duplicate controls of all the converters and installed these in its real time simulation laboratory. The Hydro-Quebec ac system was also simulated in detail and the testing of the controls as thus made possible in a realistic environment. Many field tests were duplicated and many additional tests were done for correction and optimization. This paper describes some of the features of the real-time simulation carried out for this purpose. (author) 3 figs.

Architecture for an integrated real-time air combat and sensor network simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Criswell, Evans A.; Rushing, John; Lin, Hong; Graves, Sara

2007-04-01

An architecture for an integrated air combat and sensor network simulation is presented. The architecture integrates two components: a parallel real-time sensor fusion and target tracking simulation, and an air combat simulation. By integrating these two simulations, it becomes possible to experiment with scenarios in which one or both sides in a battle have very large numbers of primitive passive sensors, and to assess the likely effects of those sensors on the outcome of the battle. Modern Air Power is a real-time theater-level air combat simulation that is currently being used as a part of the USAF Air and Space Basic Course (ASBC). The simulation includes a variety of scenarios from the Vietnam war to the present day, and also includes several hypothetical future scenarios. Modern Air Power includes a scenario editor, an order of battle editor, and full AI customization features that make it possible to quickly construct scenarios for any conflict of interest. The scenario editor makes it possible to place a wide variety of sensors including both high fidelity sensors such as radars, and primitive passive sensors that provide only very limited information. The parallel real-time sensor network simulation is capable of handling very large numbers of sensors on a computing cluster of modest size. It can fuse information provided by disparate sensors to detect and track targets, and produce target tracks.

The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cecilia Maya Ochoa

2006-12-01

Full Text Available The value of investments in high growth start-up firms is difficult to assess because payments are far in the future and their arrival is uncertain. Some of these firms may seem overvalued according to traditional methods, such as the Net Present Value, which fails to account for three drivers of value for highly innovative industries: intellectual capital as the engine of innovation, market power as the expectation of monopolistic power when innovating, and a growth option which may be exercised in the case of success.This paper presents a case study on a biotechnology start-up and applies the Creative Destruction – Real Options approach (CD-ROA (Maya, 2004 which takes into account all three drivers of value and is able to explain the high prices investors pay for shares of a company in this industry. It proves that such prices are not cases of overpricing but of recognition of the large growth potential of firms which are part of highly innovative industries.La valoración de la inversión en compañías nacientes de alto crecimiento no estarea fácil, pues los ingresos esperados se generan en un futuro lejano y bajo granincertidumbre. De acuerdo con métodos tradicionales de valoración como el ValorPresente Neto, el mercado parece sobrevalorar algunas de estas compañías. Ello sedebe a que estos métodos tradicionales no tienen en cuenta tres elementos esencialesque determinan el valor en estos casos: el capital intelectual como el motor de lainnovación, el poder de mercado por la expectativa de ingresos monopolísticos sise da la innovación y una opción real de crecimiento que puede ser ejercida en casode éxito.Este artículo aplica a una empresa de biotecnología el enfoque de opciones realesy destrucción creativa (Maya, 2004, el cual incluye estos tres determinantes delvalor y logra explicar el alto precio que los inversionistas pagan por una acción deeste tipo de empresas. Se demuestra que éste no es un caso de

Video-based real-time on-street parking occupancy detection system

Science.gov (United States)

Bulan, Orhan; Loce, Robert P.; Wu, Wencheng; Wang, YaoRong; Bernal, Edgar A.; Fan, Zhigang

2013-10-01

Urban parking management is receiving significant attention due to its potential to reduce traffic congestion, fuel consumption, and emissions. Real-time parking occupancy detection is a critical component of on-street parking management systems, where occupancy information is relayed to drivers via smart phone apps, radio, Internet, on-road signs, or global positioning system auxiliary signals. Video-based parking occupancy detection systems can provide a cost-effective solution to the sensing task while providing additional functionality for traffic law enforcement and surveillance. We present a video-based on-street parking occupancy detection system that can operate in real time. Our system accounts for the inherent challenges that exist in on-street parking settings, including illumination changes, rain, shadows, occlusions, and camera motion. Our method utilizes several components from video processing and computer vision for motion detection, background subtraction, and vehicle detection. We also present three traffic law enforcement applications: parking angle violation detection, parking boundary violation detection, and exclusion zone violation detection, which can be integrated into the parking occupancy cameras as a value-added option. Our experimental results show that the proposed parking occupancy detection method performs in real-time at 5 frames/s and achieves better than 90% detection accuracy across several days of videos captured in a busy street block under various weather conditions such as sunny, cloudy, and rainy, among others.

Monte Carlo simulation of grating-based neutron phase contrast imaging at CPHS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Ran; Chen Zhiqiang; Huang Zhifeng; Xiao Yongshun; Wang Xuewu; Wie Jie; Loong, C.-K.

2011-01-01

Since the launching of the Compact Pulsed Hadron Source (CPHS) project of Tsinghua University in 2009, works have begun on the design and engineering of an imaging/radiography instrument for the neutron source provided by CPHS. The instrument will perform basic tasks such as transmission imaging and computerized tomography. Additionally, we include in the design the utilization of coded-aperture and grating-based phase contrast methodology, as well as the options of prompt gamma-ray analysis and neutron-energy selective imaging. Previously, we had implemented the hardware and data-analysis software for grating-based X-ray phase contrast imaging. Here, we investigate Geant4-based Monte Carlo simulations of neutron refraction phenomena and then model the grating-based neutron phase contrast imaging system according to the classic-optics-based method. The simulated experimental results of the retrieving phase shift gradient information by five-step phase-stepping approach indicate the feasibility of grating-based neutron phase contrast imaging as an option for the cold neutron imaging instrument at the CPHS.

Obesity trend in the United States and economic intervention options to change it: A simulation study linking ecological epidemiology and system dynamics modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, H-J; Xue, H; Liu, S; Huang, T T K; Wang, Y C; Wang, Y

2018-05-29

To study the country-level dynamics and influences between population weight status and socio-economic distribution (employment status and family income) in the US and to project the potential impacts of socio-economic-based intervention options on obesity prevalence. Ecological study and simulation. Using the longitudinal data from the 2001-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (N = 88,453 adults), we built and calibrated a system dynamics model (SDM) capturing the feedback loops between body weight status and socio-economic status distribution and simulated the effects of employment- and income-based intervention options. The SDM-based simulation projected rising overweight/obesity prevalence in the US in the future. Improving people's income from lower to middle-income group would help control the rising prevalence, while only creating jobs for the unemployed did not show such effect. Improving people from low- to middle-income levels may be effective, instead of solely improving reemployment rate, in curbing the rising obesity trend in the US adult population. This study indicates the value of the SDM as a virtual laboratory to evaluate complex distributive phenomena of the interplay between population health and economy. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Feasibility study of teleoperational maintenance using real-time simulator for experimental fusion reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamada, Tomoyuki; Tanaka, Keiji; Oka, Kiyoshi; Shibanuma, Kiyoshi

2004-01-01

The maintenance manipulator for the experimental fusion reactor has long vertical and horizontal telescopic booms to access the neutral beam injector of the fusion reactor. Due to this boom structure, the vibration and deflection of the manipulator are the critical issues for the accurate operation. A real-time simulation system was constructed to evaluate the maneuverability of the manipulator under these vibration and deflection. In this simulation system, the dynamic behavior of the flexible manipulator is calculated synchronized with the real-time control input of the human operator. A vibration and position compensation method was adapted to improve the maneuverability. Through the evaluation using the real-time simulation system, it was verified that the manipulator is maneuverable by using vibration and position compensation. (author)

An Agent-Based Approach for Evaluating Basic Design Options of Management Accounting Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Friederike Wall

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the effectiveness of reducing errors in management accounting systems with respect to organizational performance. In particular, different basic design options of management accounting systems of how to improve the information base by measurements of actual values are analyzed in different organizational contexts. The paper applies an agent-based simulation based on the idea of NK fitness landscapes. The results provide broad, but no universal support for conventional wisdom that lower inaccuracies of accounting information lead to more effective adaptation processes. Furthermore, results indicate that the effectiveness of improving the management accounting system subtly interferes with the complexity of the interactions within the organization and the coordination mode applied

EFFECT OF REVENUE INSURANCE ON ENTRY AND EXIT DECISIONS IN TABLE GRAPE PRODUCTION: A REAL OPTION APPROACH

OpenAIRE

Seo, Sangtaek; Salin, Victoria; Mitchell, Paul D.; Leatham, David J.

2004-01-01

This study determines the entry and exit thresholds of table grape farming with irreversible investment under uncertainty. Real option approach is adopted to consider the investment and management flexibility. Also revenue insurance is introduced to consider the effect of the risk management programs on the entry and exit thresholds. Results show that revenue insurance increases the entry and exit thresholds by 1% and 4%, respectively, thus discouraging new investment and current farming, as ...

Agent-Based Modeling of Taxi Behavior Simulation with Probe Vehicle Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saurav Ranjit

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Taxi behavior is a spatial–temporal dynamic process involving discrete time dependent events, such as customer pick-up, customer drop-off, cruising, and parking. Simulation models, which are a simplification of a real-world system, can help understand the effects of change of such dynamic behavior. In this paper, agent-based modeling and simulation is proposed, that describes the dynamic action of an agent, i.e., taxi, governed by behavior rules and properties, which emulate the taxi behavior. Taxi behavior simulations are fundamentally done for optimizing the service level for both taxi drivers as well as passengers. Moreover, simulation techniques, as such, could be applied to another field of application as well, where obtaining real raw data are somewhat difficult due to privacy issues, such as human mobility data or call detail record data. This paper describes the development of an agent-based simulation model which is based on multiple input parameters (taxi stay point cluster; trip information (origin and destination; taxi demand information; free taxi movement; and network travel time that were derived from taxi probe GPS data. As such, agent’s parameters were mapped into grid network, and the road network, for which the grid network was used as a base for query/search/retrieval of taxi agent’s parameters, while the actual movement of taxi agents was on the road network with routing and interpolation. The results obtained from the simulated taxi agent data and real taxi data showed a significant level of similarity of different taxi behavior, such as trip generation; trip time; trip distance as well as trip occupancy, based on its distribution. As for efficient data handling, a distributed computing platform for large-scale data was used for extracting taxi agent parameter from the probe data by utilizing both spatial and non-spatial indexing technique.

Virtual rounds: simulation-based education in procedural medicine

Science.gov (United States)

Shaffer, David W.; Meglan, Dwight A.; Ferrell, Margaret; Dawson, Steven L.

1999-07-01

Computer-based simulation is a goal for training physicians in specialties where traditional training puts patients at risk. Intuitively, interactive simulation of anatomy, pathology, and therapeutic actions should lead to shortening of the learning curve for novice or inexperienced physicians. Effective transfer of knowledge acquired in simulators must be shown for such devices to be widely accepted in the medical community. We have developed an Interventional Cardiology Training Simulator which incorporates real-time graphic interactivity coupled with haptic response, and an embedded curriculum permitting rehearsal, hypertext links, personal archiving and instructor review and testing capabilities. This linking of purely technical simulation with educational content creates a more robust educational purpose for procedural simulators.

Simulation-Based Early Prediction of Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar Trajectories and Real-Time Optimization for Counter-RAM Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arash Ramezani

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The threat imposed by terrorist attacks is a major hazard for military installations, for example, in Iraq and Afghanistan. The large amounts of rockets, artillery projectiles, and mortar grenades (RAM that are available pose serious threats to military forces. An important task for international research and development is to protect military installations and implement an accurate early warning system against RAM threats on conventional computer systems in out-of-area field camps. This work presents a method for determining the trajectory, caliber, and type of a projectile based on the estimation of the ballistic coefficient. A simulation-based optimization process is presented that enables iterative adjustment of predicted trajectories in real time. Analytical and numerical methods are used to reduce computing time for out-of-area missions and low-end computer systems. A GUI is programmed to present the results. It allows for comparison between predicted and actual trajectories. Finally, different aspects and restrictions for measuring the quality of the results are discussed.

Real-time surgery simulation of intracranial aneurysm clipping with patient-specific geometries and haptic feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Fenz, Wolfgang; Dirnberger, Johannes

2015-03-01

Providing suitable training for aspiring neurosurgeons is becoming more and more problematic. The increasing popularity of the endovascular treatment of intracranial aneurysms leads to a lack of simple surgical situations for clipping operations, leaving mainly the complex cases, which present even experienced surgeons with a challenge. To alleviate this situation, we have developed a training simulator with haptic interaction allowing trainees to practice virtual clipping surgeries on real patient-specific vessel geometries. By using specialized finite element (FEM) algorithms (fast finite element method, matrix condensation) combined with GPU acceleration, we can achieve the necessary frame rate for smooth real-time interaction with the detailed models needed for a realistic simulation of the vessel wall deformation caused by the clamping with surgical clips. Vessel wall geometries for typical training scenarios were obtained from 3D-reconstructed medical image data, while for the instruments (clipping forceps, various types of clips, suction tubes) we use models provided by manufacturer Aesculap AG. Collisions between vessel and instruments have to be continuously detected and transformed into corresponding boundary conditions and feedback forces, calculated using a contact plane method. After a training, the achieved result can be assessed based on various criteria, including a simulation of the residual blood flow into the aneurysm. Rigid models of the surgical access and surrounding brain tissue, plus coupling a real forceps to the haptic input device further increase the realism of the simulation.

Real-time target tracking of soft tissues in 3D ultrasound images based on robust visual information and mechanical simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Royer, Lucas; Krupa, Alexandre; Dardenne, Guillaume; Le Bras, Anthony; Marchand, Eric; Marchal, Maud

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present a real-time approach that allows tracking deformable structures in 3D ultrasound sequences. Our method consists in obtaining the target displacements by combining robust dense motion estimation and mechanical model simulation. We perform evaluation of our method through simulated data, phantom data, and real-data. Results demonstrate that this novel approach has the advantage of providing correct motion estimation regarding different ultrasound shortcomings including speckle noise, large shadows and ultrasound gain variation. Furthermore, we show the good performance of our method with respect to state-of-the-art techniques by testing on the 3D databases provided by MICCAI CLUST'14 and CLUST'15 challenges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fast Dynamic Simulation-Based Small Signal Stability Assessment and Control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acharya, Naresh [General Electric Company, Fairfield, CT (United States); Baone, Chaitanya [General Electric Company, Fairfield, CT (United States); Veda, Santosh [General Electric Company, Fairfield, CT (United States); Dai, Jing [General Electric Company, Fairfield, CT (United States); Chaudhuri, Nilanjan [General Electric Company, Fairfield, CT (United States); Leonardi, Bruno [General Electric Company, Fairfield, CT (United States); Sanches-Gasca, Juan [General Electric Company, Fairfield, CT (United States); Diao, Ruisheng [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wu, Di [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Huang, Zhenyu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Yu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jin, Shuangshuang [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zheng, Bin [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Chen, Yousu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-12-31

Power grid planning and operation decisions are made based on simulation of the dynamic behavior of the system. Enabling substantial energy savings while increasing the reliability of the aging North American power grid through improved utilization of existing transmission assets hinges on the adoption of wide-area measurement systems (WAMS) for power system stabilization. However, adoption of WAMS alone will not suffice if the power system is to reach its full entitlement in stability and reliability. It is necessary to enhance predictability with "faster than real-time" dynamic simulations that will enable the dynamic stability margins, proactive real-time control, and improve grid resiliency to fast time-scale phenomena such as cascading network failures. Present-day dynamic simulations are performed only during offline planning studies, considering only worst case conditions such as summer peak, winter peak days, etc. With widespread deployment of renewable generation, controllable loads, energy storage devices and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles expected in the near future and greater integration of cyber infrastructure (communications, computation and control), monitoring and controlling the dynamic performance of the grid in real-time would become increasingly important. The state-of-the-art dynamic simulation tools have limited computational speed and are not suitable for real-time applications, given the large set of contingency conditions to be evaluated. These tools are optimized for best performance of single-processor computers, but the simulation is still several times slower than real-time due to its computational complexity. With recent significant advances in numerical methods and computational hardware, the expectations have been rising towards more efficient and faster techniques to be implemented in power system simulators. This is a natural expectation, given that the core solution algorithms of most commercial simulators were developed

Real Time Photovoltaic Array Simulator for Testing Grid-Connected PV Inverters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sera, Dezso; Valentini, Massimo; Raducu, Alin

2008-01-01

In this paper a real time flexible PV array simulator is presented. It is a system that can simulate different PV panel arrays in specific environmental conditions. To evaluate performance of the Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) of grid-connected Photovoltaic (PV) inverters only measurements...... undertaken with an appropriate PV array simulator provide accurate and reproducible results. Thus the PV array simulator has been developed and implemented. MPPT efficiency tests on a commercial grid-connected PV inverter have been performed to validate the PV array simulator....

Simulation-based optimization parametric optimization techniques and reinforcement learning

CERN Document Server

Gosavi, Abhijit

2003-01-01

Simulation-Based Optimization: Parametric Optimization Techniques and Reinforcement Learning introduces the evolving area of simulation-based optimization. The book's objective is two-fold: (1) It examines the mathematical governing principles of simulation-based optimization, thereby providing the reader with the ability to model relevant real-life problems using these techniques. (2) It outlines the computational technology underlying these methods. Taken together these two aspects demonstrate that the mathematical and computational methods discussed in this book do work. Broadly speaking, the book has two parts: (1) parametric (static) optimization and (2) control (dynamic) optimization. Some of the book's special features are: *An accessible introduction to reinforcement learning and parametric-optimization techniques. *A step-by-step description of several algorithms of simulation-based optimization. *A clear and simple introduction to the methodology of neural networks. *A gentle introduction to converg...

Real-time simulation of biological soft tissues: a PGD approach.

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Niroomandi, S; González, D; Alfaro, I; Bordeu, F; Leygue, A; Cueto, E; Chinesta, F

2013-05-01

We introduce here a novel approach for the numerical simulation of nonlinear, hyperelastic soft tissues at kilohertz feedback rates necessary for haptic rendering. This approach is based upon the use of proper generalized decomposition techniques, a generalization of PODs. Proper generalized decomposition techniques can be considered as a means of a priori model order reduction and provides a physics-based meta-model without the need for prior computer experiments. The suggested strategy is thus composed of an offline phase, in which a general meta-model is computed, and an online evaluation phase in which the results are obtained at real time. Results are provided that show the potential of the proposed technique, together with some benchmark test that shows the accuracy of the method. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reduction Methods for Real-time Simulations in Hybrid Testing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Hybrid testing constitutes a cost-effective experimental full scale testing method. The method was introduced in the 1960's by Japanese researchers, as an alternative to conventional full scale testing and small scale material testing, such as shake table tests. The principle of the method...... is performed on a glass fibre reinforced polymer composite box girder. The test serves as a pilot test for prospective real-time tests on a wind turbine blade. The Taylor basis is implemented in the test, used to perform the numerical simulations. Despite of a number of introduced errors in the real...... is to divide a structure into a physical substructure and a numerical substructure, and couple these in a test. If the test is conducted in real-time it is referred to as real time hybrid testing. The hybrid testing concept has developed significantly since its introduction in the 1960', both with respect...

BEM-based simulation of lung respiratory deformation for CT-guided biopsy.

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Chen, Dong; Chen, Weisheng; Huang, Lipeng; Feng, Xuegang; Peters, Terry; Gu, Lixu

2017-09-01

Accurate and real-time prediction of the lung and lung tumor deformation during respiration are important considerations when performing a peripheral biopsy procedure. However, most existing work focused on offline whole lung simulation using 4D image data, which is not applicable in real-time image-guided biopsy with limited image resources. In this paper, we propose a patient-specific biomechanical model based on the boundary element method (BEM) computed from CT images to estimate the respiration motion of local target lesion region, vessel tree and lung surface for the real-time biopsy guidance. This approach applies pre-computation of various BEM parameters to facilitate the requirement for real-time lung motion simulation. The resulting boundary condition at end inspiratory phase is obtained using a nonparametric discrete registration with convex optimization, and the simulation of the internal tissue is achieved by applying a tetrahedron-based interpolation method depend on expert-determined feature points on the vessel tree model. A reference needle is tracked to update the simulated lung motion during biopsy guidance. We evaluate the model by applying it for respiratory motion estimations of ten patients. The average symmetric surface distance (ASSD) and the mean target registration error (TRE) are employed to evaluate the proposed model. Results reveal that it is possible to predict the lung motion with ASSD of [Formula: see text] mm and a mean TRE of [Formula: see text] mm at largest over the entire respiratory cycle. In the CT-/electromagnetic-guided biopsy experiment, the whole process was assisted by our BEM model and final puncture errors in two studies were 3.1 and 2.0 mm, respectively. The experiment results reveal that both the accuracy of simulation and real-time performance meet the demands of clinical biopsy guidance.

Comparing Expert Driving Behavior in Real World and Simulator Contexts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiran B. Ekanayake

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Computer games are increasingly used for purposes beyond mere entertainment, and current hi-tech simulators can provide quite, naturalistic contexts for purposes such as traffic education. One of the critical concerns in this area is the validity or transferability of acquired skills from a simulator to the real world context. In this paper, we present our work in which we compared driving in the real world with that in the simulator at two levels, that is, by using performance measures alone, and by combining psychophysiological measures with performance measures. For our study, we gathered data using questionnaires as well as by logging vehicle dynamics, environmental conditions, video data, and users' psychophysiological measurements. For the analysis, we used several novel approaches such as scatter plots to visualize driving tasks of different contexts and to obtain vigilance estimators from electroencephalographic (EEG data in order to obtain important results about the differences between the driving in the two contexts. Our belief is that both experimental procedures and findings of our experiment are very important to the field of serious games concerning how to evaluate the fitness of driving simulators and measure driving performance.

Selecting lineup foils in eyewitness identification experiments: experimental control and real-world simulation.

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Clark, S E; Tunnicliff, J L

2001-06-01

Experimental research on eyewitness identification follows a standard principle of experimental design. Perpetrator-present and perpetrator-absent lineups are constructed with the same foils, so that the two conditions are identical except for the presence or absence ofthe trueperpetrator ofthe crime. However, this aspect of the design simulates conditions that do not correspond to those of real criminal investigations. Specifically, these conditions can create perp-absent lineups in which the foils are selected based on their similarity to an unknown person--the real perpetrator. Analysis of the similarity relations predicts that when foils for perp-absent lineups are selected based on their match to the perpetrator the false identification rate will be lower than if the foils are selected based on their match to the innocent suspect. This prediction was confirmed in an experiment that compared these two perp-absent lineup conditions. These results suggest that false identification rates in previous experiments would have been higher if the foils had been selected based on their match to the innocent suspect, rather than the absent perpetrator.

Real-Time Simulation of Ship Impact for Crew Training

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonsen, Bo Cerup

2003-01-01

Real-time simulation of marine accidents and representation in a realistic, virtual environment may be an efficient way to train emergency procedures for ship?s crews and thus improve safety at sea. However, although various fast, simplified methods have been presented over the past decades...

Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

Science.gov (United States)

2006-09-30

14 IV. Proof-of-Concept: USS Readiness Case Study 16 A. Background 17 B. Applying KVA Methodology 19 C. KVA Results 20 D. Real Options Analysis 23...technology assets. • Quantifying intangible human capital assets (i.e., training, skills, knowledge). The average large company spends the equivalent of...Portfolios/Motorola, Unilever • IT Infrastructure/Credit Suisse • Electricity/Peaker-Plants • Acquisitions/Seagate • Contracts/Syngenta, GM Although

A hardware-in-the-loop simulation program for ground-based radar

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Eric P.; Black, Dennis W.; Ebisu, Jason S.; Magallon, Julianna

2011-06-01

A radar system created using an embedded computer system needs testing. The way to test an embedded computer system is different from the debugging approaches used on desktop computers. One way to test a radar system is to feed it artificial inputs and analyze the outputs of the radar. More often, not all of the building blocks of the radar system are available to test. This will require the engineer to test parts of the radar system using a "black box" approach. A common way to test software code on a desktop simulation is to use breakpoints so that is pauses after each cycle through its calculations. The outputs are compared against the values that are expected. This requires the engineer to use valid test scenarios. We will present a hardware-in-the-loop simulator that allows the embedded system to think it is operating with real-world inputs and outputs. From the embedded system's point of view, it is operating in real-time. The hardware in the loop simulation is based on our Desktop PC Simulation (PCS) testbed. In the past, PCS was used for ground-based radars. This embedded simulation, called Embedded PCS, allows a rapid simulated evaluation of ground-based radar performance in a laboratory environment.

Dual-EKF-Based Real-Time Celestial Navigation for Lunar Rover

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Xie

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A key requirement of lunar rover autonomous navigation is to acquire state information accurately in real-time during its motion and set up a gradual parameter-based nonlinear kinematics model for the rover. In this paper, we propose a dual-extended-Kalman-filter- (dual-EKF- based real-time celestial navigation (RCN method. The proposed method considers the rover position and velocity on the lunar surface as the system parameters and establishes a constant velocity (CV model. In addition, the attitude quaternion is considered as the system state, and the quaternion differential equation is established as the state equation, which incorporates the output of angular rate gyroscope. Therefore, the measurement equation can be established with sun direction vector from the sun sensor and speed observation from the speedometer. The gyro continuous output ensures the algorithm real-time operation. Finally, we use the dual-EKF method to solve the system equations. Simulation results show that the proposed method can acquire the rover position and heading information in real time and greatly improve the navigation accuracy. Our method overcomes the disadvantage of the cumulative error in inertial navigation.