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Sample records for reaching epidemic proportions

  1. CRISIS UNDER THE RADAR: ILLICIT AMPHETAMINE USE IS REACHING EPIDEMIC PROPORTIONS AND CONTRIBUTING TO RESOURCE OVER-UTILIZATION AT A LEVEL 1 TRAUMA CENTER.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gemma, Vincent A; Chapple, Kristina A; Goslar, Pamela W; Israr, Sharjeel; Petersen, Scott R; Weinberg, Jordan A

    2018-05-21

    Trauma centers reported illicit amphetamine use in approximately 10% of trauma admissions in the previous decade. From experience at a trauma center located in a southwestern metropolis, our perception is that illicit amphetamine use is on the rise, and that these patients utilize in-hospital resources beyond what would be expected for their injuries. The purpose of this study was to document the incidence of illicit amphetamine use among our trauma patients and to evaluate its impact on resource utilization. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using 7 consecutive years of data (starting July 2010) from our institution's trauma registry. Toxicology screenings were used to categorize patients into one of three groups: illicit amphetamine, other drugs, or drug free. Adjusted linear and logistic regression models were used to predict hospital cost, length of stay, ICU admission and ventilation between drug groups. Models were conducted with combined injury severity (ISS) and then repeated for ISS <9, ISS 9-15 and ISS 16 and above. 8,589 patients were categorized into the following three toxicology groups: 1255 (14.6%) illicit amphetamine, 2214 (25.8%) other drugs, and 5120 (59.6%) drug free. Illicit amphetamine use increased threefold over the course of the study (from 7.85% to 25.0% of annual trauma admissions). Adjusted linear models demonstrated that illicit amphetamine among patients with ISS<9 was associated with 4.6% increase in hospital cost (P=.019) and 7.4% increase in LOS (P=.043). Logistic models revealed significantly increased odds of ventilation across all ISS groups and increased odds of ICU admission when all ISS groups were combined (P=.001) and within the ISS<9 group (P=.002). Hospital resource utilization of amphetamine patients with minor injuries is significant. Trauma centers with similar epidemic growth in proportion of amphetamine patients face a potentially significant resource strain relative to other centers. Prognostic and

  2. A solution to the online guidance problem for targeted reaches: proportional rate control using relative disparity tau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Joe; Bingham, Geoffrey P

    2010-09-01

    We provide a solution to a major problem in visually guided reaching. Research has shown that binocular vision plays an important role in the online visual guidance of reaching, but the visual information and strategy used to guide a reach remains unknown. We propose a new theory of visual guidance of reaching including a new information variable, tau(alpha) (relative disparity tau), and a novel control strategy that allows actors to guide their reach trajectories visually by maintaining a constant proportion between tau(alpha) and its rate of change. The dynamical model couples the information to the reaching movement to generate trajectories characteristic of human reaching. We tested the theory in two experiments in which participants reached under conditions of darkness to guide a visible point either on a sliding apparatus or on their finger to a point-light target in depth. Slider apparatus controlled for a simple mapping from visual to proprioceptive space. When reaching with their finger, participants were forced, by perturbation of visual information used for feedforward control, to use online control with only binocular disparity-based information for guidance. Statistical analyses of trajectories strongly supported the theory. Simulations of the model were compared statistically to actual reaching trajectories. The results supported the theory, showing that tau(alpha) provides a source of information for the control of visually guided reaching and that participants use this information in a proportional rate control strategy.

  3. High proportion of intestinal colonization with successful epidemic clones of ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae in a neonatal intensive care unit in Ecuador.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viveka Nordberg

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Neonatal infections caused by Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL-producing bacteria are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. No data are available on neonatal colonization with ESBL-producing bacteria in Ecuador. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of intestinal colonization with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae, their resistance pattern and risk factors of colonization in a neonatal intensive care unit in Ecuador. METHODS: During a three month period, stool specimens were collected every two weeks from hospitalized neonates. Species identification and susceptibility testing were performed with Vitek2, epidemiologic typing with automated repetitive PCR. Associations between groups were analyzed using the Pearson X (2 test and Fisher exact test. A forward step logistic regression model identified significant predictors for colonization. RESULTS: Fifty-six percent of the neonates were colonized with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae. Length of stay longer than 20 days and enteral feeding with a combination of breastfeeding and formula feeding were significantly associated with ESBL-colonization. The strains found were E. coli (EC, 89% and K. pneumoniae (KP, 11% and epidemiological typing divided these isolates in two major clusters. All EC and KP had bla CTX-M group 1 except for a unique EC isolate that had bla CTX-M group 9. Multi-locus sequence typing performed on the K. pneumoniae strains showed that the strains belonged to ST855 and ST897. The two detected STs belong to two different epidemic clonal complexes (CC, CC11 and CC14, which previously have been associated with dissemination of carbapenemases. None of the E. coli strains belonged to the epidemic ST 131 clone. CONCLUSIONS: More than half of the neonates were colonized with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae where the main risk factor for colonization was length of hospital stay. Two of the isolated clones were epidemic and known

  4. Proportion of long-term injection drug users as an indicator to characterize the state and prognosis of HIV-epidemic within a certain territory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreeva, Tatiana

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Epidemics of drug use and thus the spread of HIV have different duration in different regions, and, therefore, the prognosis of these epidemics may differ. We aimed to assess indicators measuring the peculiarities of injection drug use epidemics by region, informative for prevention activities among vulnerable to HIV groups. METHODS: Data from cross-sectional survey of 4026 injection drug users (IDUs conducted in 2007 in Ukraine were analyzed. The outcome measure was a binary variable depicting whether a respondent injects drugs for 20 years and over. Binary Logistic Regression in SPSS software was used to test associations with socio-demographic characteristics. RESULTS: More respondents from Odessa, Mykolayiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkassy, Poltava, and Crimea regions inject over 20 years. Older respondents were more likely to belong to the group of long-term users. Men were more likely to inject over 20 years than women. Those respondents who were married, but did not live with their spouse or other sexual partner were more likely to inject longer than 20 years compared to those single or in a stable marriage. Those respondents who use opiates or combine them with stimulants were more likely to inject over 20 years and those who use only stimulants were more likely to inject less than 20 years. CONCLUSION: Injection drug use in Ukraine started earlier among men, on certain territories and was associated with opiate use. Percentage of IDUs who inject for more than 20 years was found to be a good indicator to distinguish territories with long-lasting epidemics.

  5. Proportionality lost - proportionality regained?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werlauff, Erik

    2010-01-01

    In recent years, the European Court of Justice (the ECJ) seems to have accepted restrictions on the freedom of establishment and other basic freedoms, despite the fact that a more thorough proportionality test would have revealed that the restriction in question did not pass the 'rule of reason' ...

  6. A method for calculating the gas volume proportions and inhalation temperature of inert gas mixtures allowing reaching normothermic or hypothermic target body temperature in the awake rat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques H Abraini

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The noble gases xenon (Xe and helium (He are known to possess neuroprotective properties. Xe is considered the golden standard neuroprotective gas. However, Xe has a higher molecular weight and lower thermal conductivity and specific heat than those of nitrogen, the main diluent of oxygen (O2 in air, conditions that could impair or at least reduce the intrinsic neuroprotective properties of Xe by increasing the critical care patient's respiratory workload and body temperature. In contrast, He has a lower molecular weight and higher thermal conductivity and specific heat than those of nitrogen, but is unfortunately far less potent than Xe at providing neuroprotection. Therefore, combining Xe with He could allow obtaining, depending on the gas inhalation temperature and composition, gas mixtures with neutral or hypothermic properties, the latter being advantageous in term of neuroprotection. However, calculating the thermal properties of a mixture, whatever the substances – gases, metals, rubbers, etc. – is not trivial. To answer this question, we provide a graphical method to assess the volume proportions of Xe, He and O2 that a gas mixture should contain, and the inhalation temperature to which it should be administered to allow a clinician to maintain the patient at a target body temperature.

  7. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  8. Proportional reasoning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dole, Shelley; Hilton, Annette; Hilton, Geoff

    2015-01-01

    Proportional reasoning is widely acknowledged as a key to success in school mathematics, yet students’ continual difficulties with proportion-related tasks are well documented. This paper draws on a large research study that aimed to support 4th to 9th grade teachers to design and implement tasks...

  9. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  10. Multiwire proportional chamber development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doolittle, R. F.; Pollvogt, U.; Eskovitz, A. J.

    1973-01-01

    The development of large area multiwire proportional chambers, to be used as high resolution spatial detectors in cosmic ray experiments is described. A readout system was developed which uses a directly coupled, lumped element delay-line whose characteristics are independent of the MWPC design. A complete analysis of the delay-line and the readout electronic system shows that a spatial resolution of about 0.1 mm can be reached with the MWPC operating in the strictly proportional region. This was confirmed by measurements with a small MWPC and Fe-55 X-rays. A simplified analysis was carried out to estimate the theoretical limit of spatial resolution due to delta-rays, spread of the discharge along the anode wire, and inclined trajectories. To calculate the gas gain of MWPC's of different geometrical configurations a method was developed which is based on the knowledge of the first Townsend coefficient of the chamber gas.

  11. Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christakos, G.; Olea, R.A.; Yu, H.-L.

    2007-01-01

    Indian epidemic, the disease disappeared and reappeared several times at most locations; in Western Europe, once the disease entered a place, it lasted a time proportional to the population and then disappeared for several years (this on-and-off situation lasted more than three centuries); and (6) on average, Black Death moved much faster than bubonic plague to reach virgin territories, despite the fact that India is only slightly larger in area than Western Europe and had a railroad network almost instantly moving infected rats, fleas, and people from one end of the subcontinent to the other. Conclusions: These findings throw new light on the spatiotemporal characteristics of the epidemics and need to be taken into consideration in the scientific discussion concerning the two devastating diseases and the lessons learned from them. ?? 2007 The Royal Institute of Public Health.

  12. Is thermogenesis a significant causal factor in preventing the "globesity" epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Jens Carl; Gilman, Andrew P; Odland, Jon Øyvind

    2010-08-01

    During the last four decades the world has experienced an epidemic of overweight individuals in affluent as well as developing countries. The WHO has predicted a "globesity epidemic" with more than 1 billion adults being overweight and at least 300 million of these being clinically obese. Obesity among children and adolescents is of great significance. From a global population perspective, this epidemic in weight gain and its sequelae are the largest public health problems identified to date and have very significant adverse implications for population health, and have by now almost reached the proportion of a pandemic. While genetic changes have been discussed as a cause of the epidemic, there has been too little time since its start to enable enough genetic adaptation to take place for this to provide a valid explanation. Traditionally positive energy balance and sedentary life style have been regarded as the primary causal factors; however, these factors have so far failed to provide explanations for the entire problem. For these reasons it seems warranted to investigate other possible co-factors contributing to the "globesity epidemic" and to find efficient strategies to counteract further increases in the size and nature of the epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a potential preventive co-factor, thermogenesis. Special attention has been paid to the influence of ambient temperature as a grossly neglected factor in the debate. As most people today live and work at ambient temperatures close to their body temperature (the thermal neutral point), we hypothesise that this is an important causal co-factor in the "globesity" epidemic. The hypothesis: The null hypothesis that adaptive thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue in adult humans is not significant for weight loss is rejected. We propose the hypothesis that homoeothermic living conditions close to the thermogenic neutral level is an important causal co-factor in the "Globesity" Epidemic

  13. Proportionality for Military Leaders

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Brown, Gary D

    2000-01-01

    .... Especially lacking is a realization that there are four distinct types of proportionality. In determining whether a particular resort to war is just, national leaders must consider the proportionality of the conflict (i.e...

  14. Reaching the hard to reach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhiwandi, P; Campbell, M; Potts, M

    1994-01-01

    The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development proposed increasing contraceptive couple protection from 550 million in 1995 to 880 million in 2015. The task for family planning (FP) programs is to provide access to services for, sometimes, inaccessible rural populations. FP need based on desire for no more children has ranged from under 20% in Senegal to almost 80% in Peru. Socioeconomic development was found not to be a prerequisite for fertility change. Gender inequalities in education and social autonomy must be changed. FP access is very important among women with a disadvantaged background or among women unsure about FP. Bangladesh is a good example of a country with increased contraceptive prevalence despite low income. The rule of thumb is that contraception increases of 15% contribute to a drop in family size of about one child. Program effectiveness is related to a variety of factors: contraceptive availability at many locations, acceptable price of contraception, delivery of the oral contraceptives without prescriptions, and other strategies. FP is a service not a medical treatment. A range of methods must be promoted and available from a range of facilities. Contraceptive use is dependent on the woman's stage in her lifecycle and is dependent on informed choice. Community-based distribution systems are effective, whereas free distribution by poorly-trained field workers is not always very effective because patient payment of all or part of the cost assures quality and freedom of choice. Effective programs for underprivileged groups involve aggressive, easy to manage programs that can be replicated rapidly. FP serves a useful function in depressing maternal mortality among the poor in Africa, who have no access to quality health services. Social marketing is an effective strategy for reaching remote areas. Political will and robust management are necessary commodities.

  15. The Principle of Proportionality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennedsen, Morten; Meisner Nielsen, Kasper

    2005-01-01

    Recent policy initiatives within the harmonization of European company laws have promoted a so-called "principle of proportionality" through proposals that regulate mechanisms opposing a proportional distribution of ownership and control. We scrutinize the foundation for these initiatives...... in relationship to the process of harmonization of the European capital markets.JEL classifications: G30, G32, G34 and G38Keywords: Ownership Structure, Dual Class Shares, Pyramids, EU companylaws....

  16. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  17. Cause and effect in childhood obesity: solutions for a national epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieting, J Michael

    2008-10-01

    Childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions in the United States. As a result, children are at increased risk for myriad preventable acute and chronic medical problems--many of which are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. In addition, childhood obesity has serious psychosocial consequences, such as low self-esteem, lower quality of life, and depression. The multifaceted causes and solutions to this pervasive health issue are discussed in the present review, as are pertinent health policy issues. Osteopathic physicians and other healthcare providers can play an important role in patient and family education, direct care, and advocacy.

  18. ObesiTV: how television is influencing the obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulos, Rebecca; Vikre, Emily Kuross; Oppenheimer, Sophie; Chang, Hannah; Kanarek, Robin B

    2012-08-20

    Obesity is a major public health concern in the United States. Over the last several decades, the prevalence of obesity among both adults and children has grown at an alarming rate and is now reaching epidemic proportions. The increase in obesity has been associated with rises in a host of other chronic conditions including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and some cancers. While the causes of obesity are multifaceted, there is growing evidence that television viewing is a major contributor. Results of numerous studies indicate a direct association between time spent watching television and body weight. Possible explanations for this relationship include: 1) watching television acts as a sedentary replacement for physical activity; 2) food advertisements for nutrient-poor, high-calorie foods stimulate food intake; and 3) television viewing is associated with "mindless" eating. In addition to decreasing physical activity and increasing the consumption of highly palatable foods, television viewing can also promote weight gain in indirect ways, such as through the use of targeted product placements in television shows; by influencing social perceptions of body image; and airing programs that portray cooking, eating and losing weight as entertainment. This paper will provide an interdisciplinary review of the direct and indirect ways in which television influences the obesity epidemic, and conclude with ways in which the negative impact of television on obesity could be reduced. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Restrictions and Proportionality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werlauff, Erik

    2009-01-01

    The article discusses three central aspects of the freedoms under European Community law, namely 1) the prohibition against restrictions as an important extension of the prohibition against discrimination, 2) a prohibition against exit restrictions which is just as important as the prohibition...... against host country restrictions, but which is often not recognised to the same extent by national law, and 3) the importance of also identifying and recognising an exit restriction, so that it is possible to achieve the required test of appropriateness and proportionality in relation to the rule...

  20. The divine proportion

    CERN Document Server

    Huntley, H E

    1970-01-01

    Using simple mathematical formulas, most as basic as Pythagoras's theorem and requiring only a very limited knowledge of mathematics, Professor Huntley explores the fascinating relationship between geometry and aesthetics. Poetry, patterns like Pascal's triangle, philosophy, psychology, music, and dozens of simple mathematical figures are enlisted to show that the ""divine proportion"" or ""golden ratio"" is a feature of geometry and analysis which awakes answering echoes in the human psyche. When we judge a work of art aesthetically satisfying, according to his formulation, we are making it c

  1. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  2. A nuclear proportional counter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1973-01-01

    The invention relates to a nuclear proportional counter comprising in a bulb filled with a low-pressure gas, a wire forming an anode and a cathode, characterized in that said cathode is constituted by two plane plates parallel to each other and to the anode wire, and in that two branches of a circuit are connected to the anode wire end-portions, each branch comprising a pre-amplifier, a measuring circuit consisting of a differentiator-integrator-differentiator amplifier and a zero detector, one of the branches comprising an adjustable delay circuit, both branches jointly attacking a conversion circuit for converting the pulse duration into amplitudes said conversion circuit being followed by a multi-channel analyzer, contingently provided with a recorder [fr

  3. Load proportional safety brake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacciola, M. J.

    1979-01-01

    This brake is a self-energizing mechanical friction brake and is intended for use in a rotary drive system. It incorporates a torque sensor which cuts power to the power unit on any overload condition. The brake is capable of driving against an opposing load or driving, paying-out, an aiding load in either direction of rotation. The brake also acts as a no-back device when torque is applied to the output shaft. The advantages of using this type of device are: (1) low frictional drag when driving; (2) smooth paying-out of an aiding load with no runaway danger; (3) energy absorption proportional to load; (4) no-back activates within a few degrees of output shaft rotation and resets automatically; and (5) built-in overload protection.

  4. Macroeconomic Proportions and Corellations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Anghelache

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available The work is focusing on the main proportions and correlations which are being set up between the major macroeconomic indicators. This is the general frame for the analysis of the relations between the Gross Domestic Product growth rate and the unemployment rate; the interaction between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate; the connection between the GDP growth rate and the inflation rate. Within the analysis being performed, a particular attention is paid to �the basic relationship of the economic growth� by emphasizing the possibilities as to a factorial analysis of the macroeconomic development, mainly as far as the Gross Domestic Product is concerned. At this point, the authors are introducing the mathematical relations, which are used for modeling the macroeconomic correlations, hence the strictness of the analysis being performed.

  5. Macroeconomic Proportions and Corellations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Mitrut

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The work is focusing on the main proportions and correlations which are being set up between the major macroeconomic indicators. This is the general frame for the analysis of the relations between the Gross Domestic Product growth rate and the unemployment rate; the interaction between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate; the connection between the GDP growth rate and the inflation rate. Within the analysis being performed, a particular attention is paid to “the basic relationship of the economic growth” by emphasizing the possibilities as to a factorial analysis of the macroeconomic development, mainly as far as the Gross Domestic Product is concerned. At this point, the authors are introducing the mathematical relations, which are used for modeling the macroeconomic correlations, hence the strictness of the analysis being performed.

  6. The Diabetes Epidemic in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junghyun Noh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is one of the foremost public health issues worldwide that can lead to complications in many organ systems, and has become a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Korea. According to data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS, about 2.7 million Koreans (8.0% aged 30 years or older had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in 2013. The prevalence of T2DM increased with age and rose from 5.6% in 2006 to 8.0% in 2013. Using data based on The Health Screening Service of the NHIS, 25% of Korean adults were reported to have prediabetes in 2013. The prevalence of an impaired fasting glucose tended to increase over time from 21.5% in 2006 to 25.0% in 2013. Even though nationwide health screening has been regularly conducted as a public service, the proportion of undiagnosed cases of diabetes was still reported to be on the higher side in the latest study. Based on the results of these epidemic studies, further actions will be needed to effectively implement lifestyle changes on a social level and increase measures for the early detection of diabetes to stem the tide of the epidemic.

  7. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

  8. Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Xiaoling; Wu Xiao; Zhang Duanming; Li Zhihao; Liang Fang; Wang Xiaoyu

    2008-01-01

    We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible-Infect-Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4

  9. Know your epidemic, know your response: targeting HIV in Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lazarus, Jeff; Curth, Nadja; Bridge, Jamie

    2010-01-01

    This article provides an overview of the HIV epidemic in Asia, the context within which the epidemic is evolving, and the key actions to address the challenges faced by countries and risk groups. HIV epidemics across Asia are predominantly concentrated among most-at-risk populations. Although...... prevention and treatment services. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV by 2015 and to achieve universal access to HIV treatment, these barriers must be overcome across Asia. High-impact programs must be targeted at those in need, with continuous...

  10. Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

  11. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

  12. epidemic teach us?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

  13. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  14. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  15. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

  16. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  17. Reach Address Database (RAD)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Reach Address Database (RAD) stores the reach address of each Water Program feature that has been linked to the underlying surface water features (streams,...

  18. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  19. Reaching the hard-to-reach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdes, C

    1992-01-01

    Guatemala's family planning (FP) programs are innovative but contraceptive use is only 23%. Total fertility is 5.3 children/woman, and the 9.5 million population will double in 23 years. The problem is poverty and illiteracy among rural residents removed from health services. 80% live in poverty and 80% are illiterate. Government effort is devoted to combating diseases such as diarrhea so there are few funds for implementing a comprehensive population policy. There is support within the national government but FP lacks priority status. APROFAM's goals are to use innovative marketing methods to inform the rural population who lack access to and knowledge about FP. Service delivery is constrained by the difficulty in reaching remote areas where 4 out of 10 indigenous Guatemalans live. Infant mortality can reach as high as 200/1000 live births. Population growth has slowed, and APROFAM plans to reach 16,000 more in the future. Promotions are conducted in several languages and aired on radio, television, and in the print media. It has been found that market research is the most effective strategy in reaching indigenous families. APROFAM has also been effective in upgrading service facilities through training, client surveys, and setting improved clinic standards. Breastfeeding, training, and voluntary sterilization programs contribute to the primary care effort. The example is given of Paulina Lebron from a very poor area who has learned how to space her children and thus improve the standard of living for her family. Eventually, she convinced herself and her family that sterilization was necessary, and now the couple enjoy the bliss of newlyweds without fear of pregnancy.

  20. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  1. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  2. Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

    2009-03-01

    We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

  3. Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of global data. ... Backward multiple linear regression analysis identified the proportion of Muslims, physicians density, and adolescent fertility rate are as the three most prominent factors linked with the national HIV epidemic. Conclusions: The findings support ...

  4. Guaranteed performance in reaching mode of sliding mode ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    addresses the design of constant plus proportional rate reaching law-based SMC for second-order ... Reaching mode; sliding mode controlled systems; output tracking ... The uncertainty in the input distribution function g is expressed as.

  5. Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

    2018-05-01

    The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

  6. Proportioning of light weight concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palmus, Lars

    1996-01-01

    Development of a method to determine the proportions of the raw materials in light weight concrete made with leight expanded clay aggregate. The method is based on composite theory......Development of a method to determine the proportions of the raw materials in light weight concrete made with leight expanded clay aggregate. The method is based on composite theory...

  7. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  9. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  10. Proportional Symbol Mapping in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susumu Tanimura

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Visualization of spatial data on a map aids not only in data exploration but also in communication to impart spatial conception or ideas to others. Although recent carto-graphic functions in R are rapidly becoming richer, proportional symbol mapping, which is one of the common mapping approaches, has not been packaged thus far. Based on the theories of proportional symbol mapping developed in cartography, the authors developed some functions for proportional symbol mapping using R, including mathematical and perceptual scaling. An example of these functions demonstrated the new expressive power and options available in R, particularly for the visualization of conceptual point data.

  11. Optical fusions and proportional syntheses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert-Vanel, Michel

    2002-06-01

    A tragic error is being made in the literature concerning matters of color when dealing with optical fusions. They are still considered to be of additive nature, whereas experience shows us somewhat different results. The goal of this presentation is to show that fusions are, in fact, of 'proportional' nature, tending to be additive or subtractive, depending on each individual case. Using the pointillist paintings done in the manner of Seurat, or the spinning discs experiment could highlight this intermediate sector of the proportional. So, let us try to examine more closely what occurs in fact, by reviewing additive, subtractive and proportional syntheses.

  12. Teratology testing under REACH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Steve

    2013-01-01

    REACH guidelines may require teratology testing for new and existing chemicals. This chapter discusses procedures to assess the need for teratology testing and the conduct and interpretation of teratology tests where required.

  13. Global reach and engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Popular culture reflects both the interests of and the issues affecting the general public. As concerns regarding climate change and its impacts grow, is it permeating into popular culture and reaching that global audience?

  14. Proportional counter end effects eliminator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meekins, J.F.

    1976-01-01

    An improved gas-filled proportional counter which includes a resistor network connected between the anode and cathode at the ends of the counter in order to eliminate ''end effects'' is described. 3 Claims, 2 Drawing Figures

  15. Electronics for proportional drift tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fremont, G.; Friend, B.; Mess, K.H.; Schmidt-Parzefall, W.; Tarle, J.C.; Verweij, H.; CERN-Hamburg-Amsterdam-Rome-Moscow Collaboration); Geske, K.; Riege, H.; Schuett, J.; CERN-Hamburg-Amsterdam-Rome-Moscow Collaboration); Semenov, Y.; CERN-Hamburg-Amsterdam-Rome-Moscow Collaboration)

    1980-01-01

    An electronic system for the read-out of a large number of proportional drift tubes (16,000) has been designed. This system measures deposited charge and drift-time of the charge of a particle traversing a proportional drift tube. A second event can be accepted during the read-out of the system. Up to 40 typical events can be collected and buffered before a data transfer to a computer is necessary. (orig.)

  16. Analogical proportions: another logical view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prade, Henri; Richard, Gilles

    This paper investigates the logical formalization of a restricted form of analogical reasoning based on analogical proportions, i.e. statements of the form a is to b as c is to d. Starting from a naive set theoretic interpretation, we highlight the existence of two noticeable companion proportions: one states that a is to b the converse of what c is to d (reverse analogy), while the other called paralogical proportion expresses that what a and b have in common, c and d have it also. We identify the characteristic postulates of the three types of proportions and examine their consequences from an abstract viewpoint. We further study the properties of the set theoretic interpretation and of the Boolean logic interpretation, and we provide another light on the understanding of the role of permutations in the modeling of the three types of proportions. Finally, we address the use of these proportions as a basis for inference in a propositional setting, and relate it to more general schemes of analogical reasoning. The differences between analogy, reverse-analogy, and paralogy is still emphasized in a three-valued setting, which is also briefly presented.

  17. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  18. Epidemics after Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayer, Michelle; Connolly, Maire A.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings. PMID:17370508

  19. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  20. Development of multiwire proportional chambers

    CERN Multimedia

    Charpak, G

    1969-01-01

    It has happened quite often in the history of science that theoreticians, confronted with some major difficulty, have successfully gone back thirty years to look at ideas that had then been thrown overboard. But it is rare that experimentalists go back thirty years to look again at equipment which had become out-dated. This is what Charpak and his colleagues did to emerge with the 'multiwire proportional chamber' which has several new features making it a very useful addition to the armoury of particle detectors. In the 1930s, ion-chambers, Geiger- Muller counters and proportional counters, were vital pieces of equipment in nuclear physics research. Other types of detectors have since largely replaced them but now the proportional counter, in new array, is making a comeback.

  1. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  2. Saving Money Using Proportional Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Cruz, Jessica A.; Garney, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    It is beneficial for students to discover intuitive strategies, as opposed to the teacher presenting strategies to them. Certain proportional reasoning tasks are more likely to elicit intuitive strategies than other tasks. The strategies that students are apt to use when approaching a task, as well as the likelihood of a student's success or…

  3. Disease proportions attributable to environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vineis Paolo

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Population disease proportions attributable to various causal agents are popular as they present a simplified view of the contribution of each agent to the disease load. However they are only summary figures that may be easily misinterpreted or over-interpreted even when the causal link between an exposure and an effect is well established. This commentary discusses several issues surrounding the estimation of attributable proportions, particularly with reference to environmental causes of cancers, and critically examines two recently published papers. These issues encompass potential biases as well as the very definition of environment and of environmental agent. The latter aspect is not just a semantic question but carries implications for the focus of preventive actions, whether centred on the material and social environment or on single individuals.

  4. PEP quark search proportional chambers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parker, S I; Harris, F; Karliner, I; Yount, D [Hawaii Univ., Honolulu (USA); Ely, R; Hamilton, R; Pun, T [California Univ., Berkeley (USA). Lawrence Berkeley Lab.; Guryn, W; Miller, D; Fries, R [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (USA)

    1981-04-01

    Proportional chambers are used in the PEP Free Quark Search to identify and remove possible background sources such as particles traversing the edges of counters, to permit geometric corrections to the dE/dx and TOF information from the scintillator and Cerenkov counters, and to look for possible high cross section quarks. The present beam pipe has a thickness of 0.007 interaction lengths (lambdasub(i)) and is followed in both arms each with 45/sup 0/ <= theta <= 135/sup 0/, ..delta..phi=90/sup 0/ by 5 proportional chambers, each 0.0008 lambdasub(i) thick with 32 channels of pulse height readout, and by 3 thin scintillator planes, each 0.003 lambdasub(i) thick. Following this thin front end, each arm of the detector has 8 layers of scintillator (one with scintillating light pipes) interspersed with 4 proportional chambers and a layer of lucite Cerenkov counters. Both the calculated ion statistics and measurements using He-CH/sub 4/ gas in a test chamber indicate that the chamber efficiencies should be >98% for q=1/3. The Landau spread measured in the test was equal to that observed for normal q=1 traversals. One scintillator plane and thin chamber in each arm will have an extra set of ADC's with a wide gate bracketing the normal one so timing errors and tails of earlier pulses should not produce fake quarks.

  5. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  6. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  7. Reaching the unreached.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariyaratne, A T

    1989-01-01

    Embodied in the child survival revolution are ideological, methodological, and organizational innovations aimed at radical change in the condition of the world's children as rapidly as possible. In countries such as Sri Lanka, child survival and health for all by the year 2000 often seem to be impossible goals, given the tumultuous socioeconomic and political conditions. In Sri Lanka, the quality of life has been eroded, not enhanced, by the importation of Western technology and managerial capitalism and the destruction of indigenous processes. The chaos and violence that have been brought into the country have made it difficult to reach the poor children, women, and refugees in rural areas with primary health care interventions. Sri Lanka's unreachable--the decision making elites--have blocked access to the unreached--the urban and rural poor. If governments are to reach the unreached, they must remove the obstacles to a people-centered, community development process. It is the people themselves, and the institutions of their creation, that can reach the children amidst them in greatest need. To achieve this task, local communities must be provided with basic human rights, the power to make decisions that affect their lives, necessary resources, and appropriate technologies. Nongovernmental organizations can play a crucial role as bridges between the unreached and the unreachable by promoting community empowerment, aiding in the formation of networks of community organizations, and establishing linkages with government programs. If the ruling elites in developing countries can be persuaded to accommodate the needs and aspirations of those who, to date, have been excluded from the development process, the child survival revolution can be a nonviolent one.

  8. Solar Hydrogen Reaching Maturity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongé Jan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Increasingly vast research efforts are devoted to the development of materials and processes for solar hydrogen production by light-driven dissociation of water into oxygen and hydrogen. Storage of solar energy in chemical bonds resolves the issues associated with the intermittent nature of sunlight, by decoupling energy generation and consumption. This paper investigates recent advances and prospects in solar hydrogen processes that are reaching market readiness. Future energy scenarios involving solar hydrogen are proposed and a case is made for systems producing hydrogen from water vapor present in air, supported by advanced modeling.

  9. The paralytic poliomyelitis epidemic of 1978 in Jordan: epidemiological implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khuri-Bulos, Najwa; Melnick, Joseph L.; Hatch, Milford H.; Dawod, Saleh T.

    1984-01-01

    Poliomyelitis is endemic in Jordan, but until 1978 there were no epidemics. In that year, 66 children were admitted to the Jordan University Hospital with a paralytic illness, compared with 13 in 1979 and 11 in 1980. The epidemic reached a peak in the summer and fall of 1978. While 54% of the patients had not received any vaccine, 19% had received 3 doses of oral poliovaccine; 82% of the cases were in children less than 2 years of age, and all belonged to the lower socioeconomic group. There were 28 deaths with complications of the disease. Poliovirus was isolated from 10 out of 14 rectal swab samples examined (9 with poliovirus 1, 1 with poliovirus 2), and from 4 out of 13 throat specimens from the same patients. It is concluded that as a result of improving living standards in Jordan and neighbouring countries, more epidemics may occur unless immunization efforts against poliomyelitis are intensified. PMID:6609022

  10. A geographic information system for the study of past epidemics: The 1705 epidemic in Martigues (Bouches-du-Rhône, France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéfan Tzortzis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available At the beginning of the 18th century, the Provence region was hit by several severe epidemics whose causes are still not clearly understood.To draw up epidemic profiles and to identify the pathogenic agents concerned, we constituted a large onomastic database and built ageographic information system for Martigues, a medium-sized community in the south of France. The cross-linking of epidemiological,spatial and demographical data allows us to propose a new diagnosis for the epidemic which reached Martigues in the autumn of 1705.

  11. The worldwide obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, P T; Leach, R; Kalamara, E; Shayeghi, M

    2001-11-01

    The recent World Health Organization (WHO) agreement on the standardized classification of overweight and obese, based on body mass index (BMI), allows a comparable analysis of prevalence rates worldwide for the first time. In Asia, however, there is a demand for a more limited range for normal BMIs (i.e., 18.5 to 22.9 kg/m(2) rather than 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m(2)) because of the high prevalence of comorbidities, particularly diabetes and hypertension. In children, the International Obesity Task-Force age-, sex-, and BMI-specific cutoff points are increasingly being used. We are currently evaluating BMI data globally as part of a new millennium analysis of the Global Burden of Disease. WHO is analyzing data in terms of 20 or more principal risk factors contributing to the primary causes of disability and lost lives in the 191 countries within the WHO. The prevalence rates for overweight and obese people are different in each region, with the Middle East, Central and Eastern Europe, and North America having higher prevalence rates. In most countries, women show a greater BMI distribution with higher obesity rates than do men. Obesity is usually now associated with poverty, even in developing countries. Relatively new data suggest that abdominal obesity in adults, with its associated enhanced morbidity, occurs particularly in those who had lower birth weights and early childhood stunting. Waist measurements in nationally representative studies are scarce but will now be needed to estimate the full impact of the worldwide obesity epidemic.

  12. Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Mariana A; Leite, Iuri C; Renton, Adrian; Torres, Tania Guillén de; Gracie, Renata; Bastos, Francisco I

    2006-04-01

    The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs) in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000) were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates). In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

  13. Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana A. Hacker

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000 were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates. In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

  14. BROOKHAVEN: Proton goal reached

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    On March 30 the 35-year old Alternating Gradient Synchrotron (AGS) exceeded its updated design goal of 6 x 10 13 protons per pulse (ppp), by accelerating 6.3 x 10 13 ppp, a world record intensity. This goal was set 11 years ago and achieving it called for the construction of a new booster and the reconstruction of much of the AGS. The booster was completed in 1991, and reached its design intensity of 1.5 x 10 13 ppp in 1993. The AGS reconstruction was finished in 1994, and by July of that year the AGS claimed a new US record intensity for a proton synchrotron of 4 x 10 13 ppp, using four booster pulses. Reaching the design intensity was scheduled for 1995. In 1994, the AGS had seemed to be solidly limited to 4 x 10 13 ppp, but in 1995 the operations crew, working on their own in the quiet of the owl shift, steadily improved the intensity, regularly setting new records, much to the bemusement of the machine physicists. The physicists, however, did contribute. A second harmonic radiofrequency cavity in the booster increased the radiofrequency bucket area for capture, raising the booster intensity from 1.7 to 2.1 x 10 13 ppp. In the AGS, new radiofrequency power supplies raised the available voltage from 8 to 13 kV, greatly enhancing the beam loading capabilities of the system. A powerful new transverse damping system successfully controlled instabilities that otherwise would have destroyed the beam in less than a millisecond. Also in the AGS, 35th harmonic octupole resonances were found

  15. BROOKHAVEN: Proton goal reached

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1995-09-15

    On March 30 the 35-year old Alternating Gradient Synchrotron (AGS) exceeded its updated design goal of 6 x 10{sup 13} protons per pulse (ppp), by accelerating 6.3 x 10{sup 13} ppp, a world record intensity. This goal was set 11 years ago and achieving it called for the construction of a new booster and the reconstruction of much of the AGS. The booster was completed in 1991, and reached its design intensity of 1.5 x 10{sup 13} ppp in 1993. The AGS reconstruction was finished in 1994, and by July of that year the AGS claimed a new US record intensity for a proton synchrotron of 4 x 10{sup 13} ppp, using four booster pulses. Reaching the design intensity was scheduled for 1995. In 1994, the AGS had seemed to be solidly limited to 4 x 10{sup 13} ppp, but in 1995 the operations crew, working on their own in the quiet of the owl shift, steadily improved the intensity, regularly setting new records, much to the bemusement of the machine physicists. The physicists, however, did contribute. A second harmonic radiofrequency cavity in the booster increased the radiofrequency bucket area for capture, raising the booster intensity from 1.7 to 2.1 x 10{sup 13} ppp. In the AGS, new radiofrequency power supplies raised the available voltage from 8 to 13 kV, greatly enhancing the beam loading capabilities of the system. A powerful new transverse damping system successfully controlled instabilities that otherwise would have destroyed the beam in less than a millisecond. Also in the AGS, 35th harmonic octupole resonances were found.

  16. Incisors’ proportions in smile esthetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsulaimani, Fahad F; Batwa, Waeil

    2013-01-01

    Aims: To determine whether alteration of the maxillary central and lateral incisors’ length and width, respectively, would affect perceived smile esthetics and to validate the most esthetic length and width, respectively, for the central and lateral incisors. Materials and Methods: Photographic manipulation was undertaken to produce two sets of photographs, each set of four photographs showing the altered width of the lateral incisor and length of the central length. The eight produced photographs were assessed by laypeople, dentists and orthodontists. Results: Alteration in the incisors’ proportion affected the relative smile attractiveness for laypeople (n=124), dentists (n=115) and orthodontists (n=68); dentists and orthodontists did not accept lateral width reduction of more than 0.5 mm (P<0.01), which suggests that the lateral to central incisor width ratio ranges from 54% to 62%. However, laypeople did not accept lateral width reduction of more than 1 mm (P<0.01), widening the range to be from 48% to 62%. All groups had zero tolerance for changes in central crown length (P<0.01). Conclusion: All participants recognized that the central incisors’ length changes. For lateral incisors, laypeople were more tolerant than dentists and orthodontists. This suggests that changing incisors’ proportions affects the relative smile attractiveness. PMID:24987650

  17. Stability and bifurcation of an SIS epidemic model with treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xuezhi; Li Wensheng; Ghosh, Mini

    2009-01-01

    An SIS epidemic model with a limited resource for treatment is introduced and analyzed. It is assumed that treatment rate is proportional to the number of infectives below the capacity and is a constant when the number of infectives is greater than the capacity. It is found that a backward bifurcation occurs if the capacity is small. It is also found that there exist bistable endemic equilibria if the capacity is low.

  18. Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dicksion, Mark; Lagorio, Cecilia; Vazquez, F.; Braunstein, L.; Macri, P. A.; Migueles, M. V.; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2011-03-01

    We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w, and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold wc separating a phase (w =wc) where the disease does not spread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation, and that wc increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that wc is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes.

  19. Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cont, Rama; Jessen, Cathrine

    2012-01-01

    be made arbitrarily small—and thus the credit rating arbitrarily high—by increasing leverage, but the ratings obtained strongly depend on assumptions on the credit environment (high spread or low spread). More importantly, CPDO loss distributions are found to exhibit a wide range of tail risk measures......Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs) are structured credit derivatives that generate high coupon payments by dynamically leveraging a position in an underlying portfolio of investment-grade index default swaps. CPDO coupons and principal notes received high initial credit ratings from...... the major rating agencies, based on complex models for the joint transition of ratings and spreads for all names in the underlying portfolio. We propose a parsimonious model for analysing the performance of CPDO strategies using a top-down approach that captures the essential risk factors of the CPDO. Our...

  20. Reaching Beyond The Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Mariah; Rosenthal, L.; Gaughan, A.; Hopkins, E.

    2014-01-01

    Strawbridge Observatory at Haverford College is home to a undergraduate-led public observing program. Our program holds ~once monthly public events throughout the academic year that take advantage of eyepiece observing on our 16-inch and 12-inch telescopes as well as of the classroom, library, and projection system. These resources allow us to organize a variety of astronomy related activities that are engaging for individuals of all ages: accessible student talks, current film screenings and even arts and crafts for the families who attend with young children. These events aim to spark curiosity in others about scientific discovery and about the remarkable nature of the world in which we live. In addition to exciting local families about astronomy, this program has excited Haverford students from a range of disciplines about both science and education. Being entirely student led means that we are able to take the initiative in planning, coordinating and running all events, fostering an atmosphere of collaboration, experimentation and commitment amongst our volunteers. Additionally, this program is one of the few at Haverford that regularly reaches beyond the campus walls to promote and build relationships with the outside community. In light of this, our program presents a distinctive and enlightening opportunity for student volunteers: we get to use our scientific backgrounds to educate a general audience, while also learning from them about how to communicate and inspire in others the excitement we feel about the subject of astronomy. The work on this project has been supported by NSF AST-1151462.

  1. GAP-REACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis-Fernández, Roberto; Raggio, Greer A.; Gorritz, Magdaliz; Duan, Naihua; Marcus, Sue; Cabassa, Leopoldo J.; Humensky, Jennifer; Becker, Anne E.; Alarcón, Renato D.; Oquendo, María A.; Hansen, Helena; Like, Robert C.; Weiss, Mitchell; Desai, Prakash N.; Jacobsen, Frederick M.; Foulks, Edward F.; Primm, Annelle; Lu, Francis; Kopelowicz, Alex; Hinton, Ladson; Hinton, Devon E.

    2015-01-01

    Growing awareness of health and health care disparities highlights the importance of including information about race, ethnicity, and culture (REC) in health research. Reporting of REC factors in research publications, however, is notoriously imprecise and unsystematic. This article describes the development of a checklist to assess the comprehensiveness and the applicability of REC factor reporting in psychiatric research publications. The 16-itemGAP-REACH© checklist was developed through a rigorous process of expert consensus, empirical content analysis in a sample of publications (N = 1205), and interrater reliability (IRR) assessment (N = 30). The items assess each section in the conventional structure of a health research article. Data from the assessment may be considered on an item-by-item basis or as a total score ranging from 0% to 100%. The final checklist has excellent IRR (κ = 0.91). The GAP-REACH may be used by multiple research stakeholders to assess the scope of REC reporting in a research article. PMID:24080673

  2. UX-15 Reaches LEP

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    The creation of the world's largest sandstone cavern, not a small feat! At the bottom, cave-in preventing steel mesh can be seen clinging to the top of the tunnel. The digging of UX-15, the cavern that will house ATLAS, reached the upper ceiling of LEP on October 10th. The breakthrough which took place nearly 100 metres underground occurred precisely on schedule and exactly as planned. But much caution was taken beforehand to make the LEP breakthrough clean and safe. To prevent the possibility of cave-ins in the side tunnels that will eventually be attached to the completed UX-15 cavern, reinforcing steel mesh was fixed into the walls with bolts. Obviously no people were allowed in the LEP tunnels below UX-15 as the breakthrough occurred. The area was completely evacuated and fences were put into place to keep all personnel out. However, while personnel were being kept out of the tunnels below, this has been anything but the case for the work taking place up above. With the creation of the world's largest...

  3. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  4. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  5. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  6. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-09-13

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

  7. Vaccines as Epidemic Insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauly, Mark V

    2017-10-27

    This paper explores the relationship between the research for and development of vaccines against global pandemics and insurance. It shows that development in advance of pandemics of a portfolio of effective and government-approved vaccines does have some insurance properties: it requires incurring costs that are certain (the costs of discovering, developing, and testing vaccines) in return for protection against large losses (if a pandemic treatable with one of the vaccines occurs) but also with the possibility of no benefit (from a vaccine against a disease that never reaches the pandemic stage). It then argues that insurance against the latter event might usefully be offered to organizations developing vaccines, and explores the benefits of insurance payments to or on behalf of countries who suffer from unpredictable pandemics. These ideas are then related to recent government, industry, and philanthropic efforts to develop better policies to make vaccines against pandemics available on a timely basis.

  8. Vaccines as Epidemic Insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark V. Pauly

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the relationship between the research for and development of vaccines against global pandemics and insurance. It shows that development in advance of pandemics of a portfolio of effective and government-approved vaccines does have some insurance properties: it requires incurring costs that are certain (the costs of discovering, developing, and testing vaccines in return for protection against large losses (if a pandemic treatable with one of the vaccines occurs but also with the possibility of no benefit (from a vaccine against a disease that never reaches the pandemic stage. It then argues that insurance against the latter event might usefully be offered to organizations developing vaccines, and explores the benefits of insurance payments to or on behalf of countries who suffer from unpredictable pandemics. These ideas are then related to recent government, industry, and philanthropic efforts to develop better policies to make vaccines against pandemics available on a timely basis.

  9. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  10. Position-sensitive proportional counter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopp, M.K.

    1980-01-01

    A position-sensitive proportional counter circuit uses a conventional (low-resistance, metal-wire anode) counter for spatial resolution of an ionizing event along the anode, which functions as an RC line. A pair of preamplifiers at the anode ends act as stabilized active-capacitance loads, each comprising a series-feedback, low-noise amplifier and a unity-gain, shunt-feedback amplifier whose output is connected through a feedback capacitor to the series-feedback amplifier input. The stabilized capacitance loading of the anode allows distributed RC-line position encoding and subsequent time difference decoding by sensing the difference in rise times of pulses at the anode ends where the difference is primarily in response to the distributed capacitance along the anode. This allows the use of lower resistance wire anodes for spatial radiation detection which simplifies the counter construction of handling of the anodes, and stabilizes the anode resistivity at high count rates (>10 6 counts/sec). (author)

  11. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  12. [Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbatani, Sergio

    2003-03-01

    When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

  13. Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shobugawa, Yugo; Wiafe, Seth A; Saito, Reiko; Suzuki, Tsubasa; Inaida, Shinako; Taniguchi, Kiyosu; Suzuki, Hiroshi

    2012-06-19

    Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was -0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak, WSD value changed to be a

  14. Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shobugawa Yugo

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012 and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045, but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant. It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an

  15. Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak

  16. The protection against infection and epidemics as a point of the disaster-related medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stickl, H.

    1981-01-01

    If the hygienic infrastructure is maintained, epidemics cannot reach the extent of a catastrophe. During the course of a catastrophe, however, epidemics can develop; they may accompany and influence the outcome of a catastrophe. This can take place if the hygienic infrastructure is disturbed or destroyed, or if the resistance of the affected population is impaired (intoxication, hunger, irradiation, etc.). Proven an possible remedies and methods to prevent the infections consequences of catastrophes are described. (orig.) [de

  17. Sudden transitions in coupled opinion and epidemic dynamics with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, Marcelo A.; Oestereich, André L.; Crokidakis, Nuno

    2018-05-01

    This work consists of an epidemic model with vaccination coupled with an opinion dynamics. Our objective was to study how disease risk perception can influence opinions about vaccination and therefore the spreading of the disease. Differently from previous works we have considered continuous opinions. The epidemic spreading is governed by an SIS-like model with an extra vaccinated state. In our model individuals vaccinate with a probability proportional to their opinions. The opinions change due to peer influence in pairwise interactions. The epidemic feedback to the opinion dynamics acts as an external field increasing the vaccination probability. We performed Monte Carlo simulations in fully-connected populations. Interestingly we observed the emergence of a first-order phase transition, besides the usual active-absorbing phase transition presented in the SIS model. Our simulations also show that with a certain combination of parameters, an increment in the initial fraction of the population that is pro-vaccine has a twofold effect: it can lead to smaller epidemic outbreaks in the short term, but it also contributes to the survival of the chain of infections in the long term. Our results also suggest that it is possible that more effective vaccines can decrease the long-term vaccine coverage. This is a counterintuitive outcome, but it is in line with empirical observations that vaccines can become a victim of their own success.

  18. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  19. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  20. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  1. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  2. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

  3. The Characteristics of TB Epidemic and TB/HIV Co-Infection Epidemic: A 2007-2013 Retrospective Study in Urumqi, Xinjiang Province, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Wei

    Full Text Available This study was aimed to find out epidemiologic characteristic of tuberculosis (TB cases, and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV positive cases among TB patients (TB/HIV co-infection through demographic, temporal, and spatial study in Urumqi.Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression were applied to identify the epidemiologic characteristics and risk factors of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic. All addresses of each TB case, TB/HIV co-infection case, and administrative street were transformed into geographical coordinate. Subsequently, the geocoded address for 82 streets was transformed into a dot map used as the basis of spatial datasets. In addition, the paper also used quantile map and the spatial scan statistic in order to identify the spatial distribution and spatial clusters of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic.There was a declining trend of the notification rates of TB epidemic from 2007 to 2009, as well as a rising trend from 2010 to 2013. However, the notification rates of TB/HIV co-infection epidemic showed a rising trend from 2007 to 2010, and a declining trend from 2011 to 2013. Moreover, a significant share of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic happened between the age of 15 to 45 years old, indicating an increase in risk of TB and TB/HIV infection. It is worth noting that the risk of HIV infection for male TB patients was 2.947 times (95% CI [2.178, 3.988] than that of female patients. Han ethnicity and Uygur ethnicity in urban region accounted for a large proportion of total TB and TB/HIV co-infection cases. Most of the TB cases of minorities in Urumqi showed a statistically significant increase in risk of HIV infection than Han ethnicity in Urumqi. In addition, the spatial distribution of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic was highly skewed. Most of the local clusters were located in urban area and rural-urban continuum where showed an increase in risk of TB and TB

  4. Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

    2010-03-01

    Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

  5. Prevalence and trends of the diabetes epidemic in South Asia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayawardena Ranil

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diabetes mellitus has reached epidemic proportions worldwide. South Asians are known to have an increased predisposition for diabetes which has become an important health concern in the region. We discuss the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes in South Asia and explore the differential risk factors reported. Methods Prevalence data were obtained by searching the Medline® database with; ‘prediabetes’ and ‘diabetes mellitus’ (MeSH major topic and ‘Epidemology/EP’ (MeSH subheading. Search limits were articles in English, between 01/01/1980–31/12/2011, on human adults (≥19 years. The conjunction of the above results was narrowed down with country names. Results The most recent reported prevalence of pre-diabetes:diabetes in regional countries were; Bangladesh–4.7%:8.5% (2004–2005;Rural, India–4.6%:12.5% (2007;Rural; Maldives–3.0%:3.7% (2004;National, Nepal–19.5%:9.5% (2007;Urban, Pakistan–3.0%:7.2% (2002;Rural, Sri Lanka–11.5%:10.3% (2005–2006;National. Urban populations demonstrated a higher prevalence of diabetes. An increasing trend in prevalence of diabetes was observed in urban/rural India and rural Sri Lanka. The diabetes epidemicity index decreased with the increasing prevalence of diabetes in respective countries. A high epidemicity index was seen in Sri Lanka (2005/2006–52.8%, while for other countries, the epidemicity index was comparatively low (rural India 2007–26.9%; urban India 2002/2005–31.3%, and urban Bangladesh–33.1%. Family history, urban residency, age, higher BMI, sedentary lifestyle, hypertension and waist-hip ratio were associated with an increased risks of diabetes. Conclusion A significant epidemic of diabetes is present in the South Asian region with a rapid increase in prevalence over the last two decades. Hence there is a need for urgent preventive and curative strategies .

  6. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  7. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  8. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  9. Adaptive evolution of the spike gene of SARS coronavirus: changes in positively selected sites in different epidemic groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    He Shao-Heng

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is believed that animal-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS coronavirus (CoV is the cause of the SARS outbreak worldwide. The spike (S protein is one of the best characterized proteins of SARS-CoV, which plays a key role in SARS-CoV overcoming species barrier and accomplishing interspecies transmission from animals to humans, suggesting that it may be the major target of selective pressure. However, the process of adaptive evolution of S protein and the exact positively selected sites associated with this process remain unknown. Results By investigating the adaptive evolution of S protein, we identified twelve amino acid sites (75, 239, 244, 311, 479, 609, 613, 743, 765, 778, 1148, and 1163 in the S protein under positive selective pressure. Based on phylogenetic tree and epidemiological investigation, SARS outbreak was divided into three epidemic groups: 02–04 interspecies, 03-early-mid, and 03-late epidemic groups in the present study. Positive selection was detected in the first two groups, which represent the course of SARS-CoV interspecies transmission and of viral adaptation to human host, respectively. In contrast, purifying selection was detected in 03-late group. These indicate that S protein experiences variable positive selective pressures before reaching stabilization. A total of 25 sites in 02–04 interspecies epidemic group and 16 sites in 03-early-mid epidemic group were identified under positive selection. The identified sites were different between these two groups except for site 239, which suggests that positively selected sites are changeable between groups. Moreover, it was showed that a larger proportion (24% of positively selected sites was located in receptor-binding domain (RBD than in heptad repeat (HR1-HR2 region in 02–04 interspecies epidemic group (p = 0.0208, and a greater percentage (25% of these sites occurred in HR1–HR2 region than in RBD in 03-early

  10. Rubella epidemic caused by genotype 1E rubella viruses in Beijing, China, in 2007-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Meng; Zhu, Zhen; Liu, Donglei; Huang, Guohong; Huang, Fang; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Tiegang; Xu, Wenbo; Pang, Xinghuo

    2013-04-18

    A series of different rubella vaccination strategies were implemented to control rubella and prevent congenital rubella virus infection in Beijing, China. The rubella vaccine was available in 1995 in Beijing, and was introduced into the Beijing immunization program (vaccine recipients at their own expense vaccination) in 2000, and was introduced into the National Expanded Program on Immunization (vaccine recipients free vaccination) in 2006. Rubella virological surveillance started in Beijing in 2007. The reported rubella incidence rate has decreased dramatically due to the introduction of the vaccine in Beijing since 1995. However, rubella epidemics occurred regardless in 2001 and 2007. The incidence rate among the floating population has gradually increased since 2002, reaching 2 or more times that in the permanent resident population. The peak age of rubella cases gradually changed from tree was constructed based on the World Health Organization standard sequence window for rubella virus isolates. All Beijing rubella virus isolates belong to genotype 1E/cluster1 and were clustered interspersed with viruses from other provinces in China. The effective number of infections indicated by a Bayesian skyline plot remained constant from 2007 to 2011. The proportion of rubella cases among the floating population has increased significantly in Beijing since 2002, and the disease burden gradually shifted to the older age group (15- to 39-year olds), which has become a major group with rubella infection since 2006. Genotype 1E rubella virus continuously caused a rubella epidemic in Beijing in 2007-2011 and was the predominant virus, and all Beijing genotype 1E viruses belong to cluster 1, which is also widely circulated throughout the country.

  11. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  12. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  13. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The t...

  14. Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of drought hazard economic loss as proportions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per...

  15. Impossibility Theorem in Proportional Representation Problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karpov, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    The study examines general axiomatics of Balinski and Young and analyzes existed proportional representation methods using this approach. The second part of the paper provides new axiomatics based on rational choice models. New system of axioms is applied to study known proportional representation systems. It is shown that there is no proportional representation method satisfying a minimal set of the axioms (monotonicity and neutrality).

  16. Cognitive and Metacognitive Aspects of Proportional Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modestou, Modestina; Gagatsis, Athanasios

    2010-01-01

    In this study we attempt to propose a new model of proportional reasoning based both on bibliographical and research data. This is impelled with the help of three written tests involving analogical, proportional, and non-proportional situations that were administered to pupils from grade 7 to 9. The results suggest the existence of a…

  17. Evaluating Middle Years Students' Proportional Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilton, Annette; Dole, Shelley; Hilton, Geoff; Goos, Merrilyn; O'Brien, Mia

    2012-01-01

    Proportional reasoning is a key aspect of numeracy that is not always developed naturally by students. Understanding the types of proportional reasoning that students apply to different problem types is a useful first step to identifying ways to support teachers and students to develop proportional reasoning in the classroom. This paper describes…

  18. The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhidong; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2018-05-01

    Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the time-dependent influence of a node is usually strongly coupled to the dynamic process and the underlying network. With increasing effective infection rate, we illustrate that the fastest spreader changes from the node with the largest degree to the node with the shortest flooding time. (The flooding time is the minimum time needed to reach all other nodes if the process is reduced to a flooding process.) Furthermore, by taking the local topology around the spreader and the average flooding time into account, we propose the spreading efficiency as a metric to quantify the efficiency of a spreader and identify the fastest spreader, which is adaptive to different infection rates in general networks.

  19. Has the HIV epidemic in rural Mwanza, Tanzania reached a plateau?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    migration of HIV positive people out of the communities or when ... rural Mwanza may be responsible for changes in risky sexual behaviour and have successfully impeded the spread ... 20 clusters and cluster sampling was used to select 7-9.

  20. Proportioning of U3O8 powder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cermak, V.; Markvart, M.; Novy, P.; Vanka, M.

    1989-01-01

    The tests are briefly described or proportioning U 3 O 8 powder of a granulometric grain size range of 0-160 μm using a vertical screw, a horizontal dual screw and a vibration dispenser with a view to proportioning very fine U 3 O 8 powder fractions produced in the oxidation of UO 2 fuel pellets. In the tests, the evenness of proportioning was assessed by the percentage value of the proportioning rate spread measured at one-minute intervals at a proportioning rate of 1-3 kg/h. In feeding the U 3 O 3 in a flame fluorator, it is advantageous to monitor the continuity of the powder column being proportioned and to assess it radiometrically by the value of the proportioning rate spread at very short intervals (0.1 s). (author). 10 figs., 1 tab., 12 refs

  1. Multilingual event extraction for epidemic detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejeune, Gaël; Brixtel, Romain; Doucet, Antoine; Lucas, Nadine

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents a multilingual news surveillance system applied to tele-epidemiology. It has been shown that multilingual approaches improve timeliness in detection of epidemic events across the globe, eliminating the wait for local news to be translated into major languages. We present here a system to extract epidemic events in potentially any language, provided a Wikipedia seed for common disease names exists. The Daniel system presented herein relies on properties that are common to news writing (the journalistic genre), the most useful being repetition and saliency. Wikipedia is used to screen common disease names to be matched with repeated characters strings. Language variations, such as declensions, are handled by processing text at the character-level, rather than at the word level. This additionally makes it possible to handle various writing systems in a similar fashion. As no multilingual ground truth existed to evaluate the Daniel system, we built a multilingual corpus from the Web, and collected annotations from native speakers of Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian, with no connection or interest in the Daniel system. This data set is available online freely, and can be used for the evaluation of other event extraction systems. Experiments for 5 languages out of 17 tested are detailed in this paper: Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian. The Daniel system achieves an average F-measure of 82% in these 5 languages. It reaches 87% on BEcorpus, the state-of-the-art corpus in English, slightly below top-performing systems, which are tailored with numerous language-specific resources. The consistent performance of Daniel on multiple languages is an important contribution to the reactivity and the coverage of epidemiological event detection systems. Most event extraction systems rely on extensive resources that are language-specific. While their sophistication induces excellent results (over 90% precision and recall), it restricts their

  2. WHEAT LEAF RUST SEVERITY AS AFFECTED BY PLANT DENSITY AND SPECIES PROPORTION IN SIMPLE COMMUNITIES OF WHEAT AND WILD OATS

    Science.gov (United States)

    While it is generally accepted that dense stands of plants exacerbate epidemics caused by foliar pathogens, there is little experimental evidence to support this view. We grew model plant communities consisting of wheat and wild oats at different densities and proportions and exp...

  3. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  4. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  5. Why do card issuers charge proportional fees?

    OpenAIRE

    Oz Shy; Zhu Wang

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains why payment card companies charge consumers and merchants fees which are proportional to the transaction values instead of charging a fixed per-transaction fee. Our theory shows that, even in the absence of any cost considerations, card companies earn much higher profit when they charge proportional fees. It is also shown that competition among merchants reduces card companies' gains from using proportional fees relative to a fixed per-transaction fee. Merchants are found ...

  6. Relating arithmetical techniques of proportion to geometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wijayanti, Dyana

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate how textbooks introduce and treat the theme of proportion in geometry (similarity) and arithmetic (ratio and proportion), and how these themes are linked to each other in the books. To pursue this aim, we use the anthropological theory of the didactic....... Considering 6 common Indonesian textbooks in use, we describe how proportion is explained and appears in examples and exercises, using an explicit reference model of the mathematical organizations of both themes. We also identify how the proportion themes of the geometry and arithmetic domains are linked. Our...

  7. Reaching ignition in the tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furth, H.P.

    1985-06-01

    This review covers the following areas: (1) the physics of burning plasmas, (2) plasma physics requirements for reaching ignition, (3) design studies for ignition devices, and (4) prospects for an ignition project

  8. Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Da Silva, Renato Aparecido Pimentel; Viana, Matheus Palhares; Da Fontoura Costa, Luciano

    2012-01-01

    Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdös–Rényi (ER), Barabási–Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered. (paper)

  9. Proportional Reasoning and the Visually Impaired

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilton, Geoff; Hilton, Annette; Dole, Shelley L.; Goos, Merrilyn; O'Brien, Mia

    2012-01-01

    Proportional reasoning is an important aspect of formal thinking that is acquired during the developmental years that approximate the middle years of schooling. Students who fail to acquire sound proportional reasoning often experience difficulties in subjects that require quantitative thinking, such as science, technology, engineering, and…

  10. Adaptive bayesian analysis for binomial proportions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Das, Sonali

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available of testing the proportion of some trait. For example, say, we are interested to infer about the effectiveness of a certain intervention teaching strategy, by comparing proportion of ‘proficient’ teachers, before and after an intervention. The number...

  11. Mix Proportion Design of Asphalt Concrete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xianhu; Gao, Lingling; Du, Shoujun

    2017-12-01

    Based on the gradation of AC and SMA, this paper designs a new type of anti slide mixture with two types of advantages. Chapter introduces the material selection, ratio of ore mixture ratio design calculation, and determine the optimal asphalt content test and proportioning design of asphalt concrete mix. This paper introduces the new technology of mix proportion.

  12. Proportional gas scintillation detectors and their applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petr, I.

    1978-01-01

    The principle is described of a gas proportional scintillation detector and its function. Dependence of Si(Li) and xenon proportional detectors energy resolution on the input window size is given. A typical design is shown of a xenon detector used for X-ray spetrometry at an energy of 277 eV to 5.898 keV and at a gas pressure of 98 to 270 kPa. Gas proportional scintillation detectors show considerable better energy resolution than common proportional counters and even better resolution than semiconductor Si(Li) detectors for low X radiation energies. For detection areas smaller than 25 mm 2 Si(Li) detectors show better resolution, especially for higher X radiation energies. For window areas 25 to 190 mm 2 both types of detectors are equal, for a window area exceeding 190 mm 2 the proportional scintillation detector has higher energy resolution. (B.S.)

  13. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  14. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

    2005-02-01

    Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

  16. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

  17. Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

  18. Heightened vulnerability to MDR-TB epidemics after controlling drug-susceptible TB.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason D Bishai

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Prior infection with one strain TB has been linked with diminished likelihood of re-infection by a new strain. This paper attempts to determine the role of declining prevalence of drug-susceptible TB in enabling future epidemics of MDR-TB.A computer simulation of MDR-TB epidemics was developed using an agent-based model platform programmed in NetLogo (See http://mdr.tbtools.org/. Eighty-one scenarios were created, varying levels of treatment quality, diagnostic accuracy, microbial fitness cost, and the degree of immunogenicity elicited by drug-susceptible TB. Outcome measures were the number of independent MDR-TB cases per trial and the proportion of trials resulting in MDR-TB epidemics for a 500 year period after drug therapy for TB is introduced.MDR-TB epidemics propagated more extensively after TB prevalence had fallen. At a case detection rate of 75%, improving therapeutic compliance from 50% to 75% can reduce the probability of an epidemic from 45% to 15%. Paradoxically, improving the case-detection rate from 50% to 75% when compliance with DOT is constant at 75% increases the probability of MDR-TB epidemics from 3% to 45%.The ability of MDR-TB to spread depends on the prevalence of drug-susceptible TB. Immunologic protection conferred by exposure to drug-susceptible TB can be a crucial factor that prevents MDR-TB epidemics when TB treatment is poor. Any single population that successfully reduces its burden of drug-susceptible TB will have reduced herd immunity to externally or internally introduced strains of MDR-TB and can experience heightened vulnerability to an epidemic. Since countries with good TB control may be more vulnerable, their self interest dictates greater promotion of case detection and DOTS implementation in countries with poor control to control their risk of MDR-TB.

  19. [A large-scale epidemic of diphtheria in Moscow in recent years: patterns of development].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chistiakova, G G; Filatov, N N; Korzhenkova, M P; Solodovnikov, Iu P; Lytkina, I N; Maksimova, N M; Markina, S S

    2001-01-01

    Data on the dynamics of diphtheria morbidity in Moscow in 1958-1999 are presented. The last epidemic which started at the end of the 1980s and reached its peak in 1994, giving a 59-fold rise in morbidity in comparison with the pre-epidemic period, is characterized in detail. During the epidemic 12,267 persons fell ill, 454 of them died (mortality rate was 4%). Having started in Moscow, the epidemic gradually spread not only over the territory of Russia, but also over some other republics of the former Soviet Union (Ukraine, Belarus, etc.). Possible causes of this epidemic emergency are considered. The ever increasing share of adult population among persons affected by the epidemic (75%) is noted. The infection adults is characterized by severity of clinical manifestations and increased morbidity among adults, is shown. Under complicated social and economic conditions (crisis situation) the increase of groups of high risk which included unemployed adults of working age, retirees as well as socially non-adapted persons, was registered. Mainly these groups determined tense epidemiological situation in diphtheria in Moscow.

  20. Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

  1. Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel E Leventhal

    Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

  2. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  3. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  4. Cooperative epidemics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azimi-Tafreshi, N.

    2016-04-01

    The spread of one disease, in some cases, can stimulate the spreading of another infectious disease. Here, we treat analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network. We allow layer overlapping, but we assume that each layer is random and locally loopless. Infection with one of the diseases increases the probability of getting infected with the other. Using the generating function method, we calculate exactly the fraction of individuals infected with both diseases (so-called coinfected clusters) in the stationary state, as well as the epidemic spreading thresholds and the phase diagram of the model. With increasing cooperation, we observe a tricritical point and the type of transition changes from continuous to hybrid. Finally, we compare the coinfected clusters in the case of cooperating diseases with the so-called "viable" clusters in networks with dependencies.

  5. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

  6. Icon arrays help younger children's proportional reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggeri, Azzurra; Vagharchakian, Laurianne; Xu, Fei

    2018-06-01

    We investigated the effects of two context variables, presentation format (icon arrays or numerical frequencies) and time limitation (limited or unlimited time), on the proportional reasoning abilities of children aged 7 and 10 years, as well as adults. Participants had to select, between two sets of tokens, the one that offered the highest likelihood of drawing a gold token, that is, the set of elements with the greater proportion of gold tokens. Results show that participants performed better in the unlimited time condition. Moreover, besides a general developmental improvement in accuracy, our results show that younger children performed better when proportions were presented as icon arrays, whereas older children and adults were similarly accurate in the two presentation format conditions. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? There is a developmental improvement in proportional reasoning accuracy. Icon arrays facilitate reasoning in adults with low numeracy. What does this study add? Participants were more accurate when they were given more time to make the proportional judgement. Younger children's proportional reasoning was more accurate when they were presented with icon arrays. Proportional reasoning abilities correlate with working memory, approximate number system, and subitizing skills. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

  7. Count rate effect in proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bednarek, B.

    1980-01-01

    A critical evaluaton is presented of the actual state of investigations and explanations of the resolution and pulse height changes resulted in proportional counters from radiation intensity variations. (author)

  8. A multiwire proportional counter for very high counting rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbosa, A.F.; Guedes, G.P.; Tamura, E.; Pepe, I.M.; Oliveira, N.B.

    1997-12-01

    Preliminary measurements in a proportional counter with two independently counting wires showed that counting rates up to 10 6 counts/s per wire can be reached without critical loss in the true versus measured linearity relation. Results obtained with a detector containing 30 active wires (2 mm pitch) are presented. To each wire is associated a fast pre-amplifier and a discriminator channel. Global counting rates in excess to 10 7 events/s are reported. Data acquisition systems are described for 1D (real time) and 2D (off-line) position sensitive detection systems. (author)

  9. A multiwire proportional counter for very high counting rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbosa, A F; Guedes, G P [Centro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Fisicas (CBPF), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Tamura, E [Laboratorio Nacional de Luz Sincrotron (LNLS), Campinas, SP (Brazil); Pepe, I M; Oliveira, N B [Bahia Univ., Salvador, BA (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica

    1997-12-01

    Preliminary measurements in a proportional counter with two independently counting wires showed that counting rates up to 10{sup 6} counts/s per wire can be reached without critical loss in the true versus measured linearity relation. Results obtained with a detector containing 30 active wires (2 mm pitch) are presented. To each wire is associated a fast pre-amplifier and a discriminator channel. Global counting rates in excess to 10{sup 7} events/s are reported. Data acquisition systems are described for 1D (real time) and 2D (off-line) position sensitive detection systems. (author) 13 refs., 6 figs.

  10. Seeking an optimal renal replacement therapy for the chronic kidney disease epidemic: the case for on-line hemodiafiltration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatti, Emanuele; Ronco, Claudio

    2011-01-01

    The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) can be expected to increase dramatically in the foreseeable future, with suggestions that it has already reached epidemic proportions. The inadequate supply of donor organs, aggravated by an aging patient population, necessitates provision of sustainable dialysis treatment modalities. These treatment modalities must not only be of established clinical efficacy and effectiveness, but must simultaneously circumvent any potential treatment disparities due to geographical, social or other concurring factors. Home therapies might represent a partial solution to the complex issue of seeking optimal strategies to cope with the CKD epidemic. However, self-care renal replacement therapy (RRT), such as peritoneal dialysis (PD) and home therapies, can only be applied to a limited portion of the CKD population. Consequently, in preparation for coping with this CKD epidemic, specific large-scale plans need to be made that involve optimization of treatments already in use for the majority of the population requiring RRT, e.g. hemodialysis (HD). Extracorporeal chronic HD relies heavily on technology for its clinical success. Like the choice of the treatment modality and the complete medical approach to CKD patient care, the particular selection of the various components of the extracorporeal circuit has a significant impact on the well-being and survival of the patients. We present a medical-technological assessment of how best to treat vast numbers of dialysis patients under the financial restraints that are predicted to become even more severe as CKD entrenches itself as a more 'permanent epidemic'. A treatment modality is proposed that optimally addresses--and resolves--the debilitating effects of uremia, as well as of key clinical conditions closely linked to it. This treatment modality successfully tackles the issues of patient well-being, efficacy, effectiveness, safety and patient-nursing staff convenience--all in relation to

  11. Reach Out Churches: A Community-Based Participatory Research Pilot Trial to Assess the Feasibility of a Mobile Health Technology Intervention to Reduce Blood Pressure Among African Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skolarus, Lesli E; Cowdery, Joan; Dome, Mackenzie; Bailey, Sarah; Baek, Jonggyu; Byrd, James Brian; Hartley, Sarah E; Valley, Staci C; Saberi, Sima; Wheeler, Natalie C; McDermott, Mollie; Hughes, Rebecca; Shanmugasundaram, Krithika; Morgenstern, Lewis B; Brown, Devin L

    2017-06-01

    Innovative strategies are needed to reduce the hypertension epidemic among African Americans. Reach Out was a faith-collaborative, mobile health, randomized, pilot intervention trial of four mobile health components to reduce high blood pressure (BP) compared to usual care. It was designed and tested within a community-based participatory research framework among African Americans recruited and randomized from churches in Flint, Michigan. The purpose of this pilot study was to assess the feasibility of the Reach Out processes. Feasibility was assessed by willingness to consent (acceptance of randomization), proportion of weeks participants texted their BP readings (intervention use), number lost to follow-up (retention), and responses to postintervention surveys and focus groups (acceptance of intervention). Of the 425 church members who underwent BP screening, 94 enrolled in the study and 73 (78%) completed the 6-month outcome assessment. Median age was 58 years, and 79% were women. Participants responded with their BPs on an average of 13.7 (SD = 10.7) weeks out of 26 weeks that the BP prompts were sent. All participants reported satisfaction with the intervention. Reach Out, a faith-collaborative, mobile health intervention was feasible. Further study of the efficacy of the intervention and additional mobile health strategies should be considered.

  12. Evidence from epidemic appraisals in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idoteyin O. Ezirim

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Although HIV prevalence has increased in most-at-risk populations (MARPs across Nigeria, effective programming was difficult because Nigeria lacked information for prevention programmes to target interventions that maximise coverage and cost effectiveness. Epidemic appraisals (EA were conducted in eight states to provide evidence for the planning, implementation and co-ordination of prevention interventions. Component 1: Mapping determined the size, typology and locations of MARPs. Component 2: Venue profiling identified and profiled venues where general populations engaged in high-risk behaviours. Component 3: Rural appraisals provided insights into risk behaviours and sexual networking in villages. States used mapping results to prioritise areas with a MARP coverage of 70% – 80% and then scale up interventions for non-brothel-based female sex workers (FSWs instead of focusing on brothel-based FSWs. The eight states prioritisedf unding for the high-coverage areas to ensure a minimum coverage level of 70% – 80% of MARPs was reached. The refocused resources led to cost efficiencies. Applying venue profiling results, six states implemented interventions at bars and night clubs – previously not covered. States also maximised intervention coverage for high-risk general populations; this led to the use of resources for general population interventions in a focused way rather than across an entire state. States focused on condom programmes in rural areas. EA results provided the evidence for focusing interventions for high MARP coverage as well as forhigh-risk general populations. The states applied the results and rapidly refocused their interventions, increasing the likelihood of having an impact on HIV transmission in those states. Nigeria is now implementing EAs in the remaining 29 states to effect national-level impact.

  13. Proportion congruency effects: Instructions may be enough

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga eEntel

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Learning takes time, namely, one needs to be exposed to contingency relations between stimulus dimensions in order to learn, whereas intentional control can be recruited through task demands. Therefore showing that control can be recruited as a function of experimental instructions alone, that is, adapting the processing according to the instructions before the exposure to the task, can be taken as evidence for existence of control recruitment in the absence of learning. This was done by manipulating the information given at the outset of the experiment. In the first experiment, we manipulated list-level congruency proportion. Half of the participants were informed that most of the stimuli would be congruent, whereas the other half were informed that most of the stimuli would be incongruent. This held true for the stimuli in the second part of each experiment. In the first part, however, the proportion of the two stimulus types was equal. A proportion congruent effect was found in both parts of the experiment, but it was larger in the second part. In our second experiment, we manipulated the proportion of the stimuli within participants by applying an item-specific design. This was done by presenting some color words most often in their congruent color, and other color words in incongruent colors. Participants were informed about the exact word-color pairings in advance. Similar to Experiment 1, this held true only for the second experimental part. In contrast to our first experiment, informing participants in advance did not result in an item-specific proportion effect, which was observed only in the second part. Thus our results support the hypothesis that instructions may be enough to trigger list-level control, yet learning does contribute to the proportion congruent effect under such conditions. The item-level proportion effect is apparently caused by learning or at least it is moderated by it.

  14. Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joel C.

    2009-08-01

    The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

  15. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  16. RECORDS REACHING RECORDING DATA TECHNOLOGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. W. L. Gresik

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The goal of RECORDS (Reaching Recording Data Technologies is the digital capturing of buildings and cultural heritage objects in hard-to-reach areas and the combination of data. It is achieved by using a modified crane from film industry, which is able to carry different measuring systems. The low-vibration measurement should be guaranteed by a gyroscopic controlled advice that has been , developed for the project. The data were achieved by using digital photography, UV-fluorescence photography, infrared reflectography, infrared thermography and shearography. Also a terrestrial 3D laser scanner and a light stripe topography scanner have been used The combination of the recorded data should ensure a complementary analysis of monuments and buildings.

  17. Records Reaching Recording Data Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gresik, G. W. L.; Siebe, S.; Drewello, R.

    2013-07-01

    The goal of RECORDS (Reaching Recording Data Technologies) is the digital capturing of buildings and cultural heritage objects in hard-to-reach areas and the combination of data. It is achieved by using a modified crane from film industry, which is able to carry different measuring systems. The low-vibration measurement should be guaranteed by a gyroscopic controlled advice that has been , developed for the project. The data were achieved by using digital photography, UV-fluorescence photography, infrared reflectography, infrared thermography and shearography. Also a terrestrial 3D laser scanner and a light stripe topography scanner have been used The combination of the recorded data should ensure a complementary analysis of monuments and buildings.

  18. Proportional hazards models of infrastructure system recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, Kash; Baroud, Hiba

    2014-01-01

    As emphasis is being placed on a system's ability to withstand and to recover from a disruptive event, collectively referred to as dynamic resilience, there exists a need to quantify a system's ability to bounce back after a disruptive event. This work applies a statistical technique from biostatistics, the proportional hazards model, to describe (i) the instantaneous rate of recovery of an infrastructure system and (ii) the likelihood that recovery occurs prior to a given point in time. A major benefit of the proportional hazards model is its ability to describe a recovery event as a function of time as well as covariates describing the infrastructure system or disruptive event, among others, which can also vary with time. The proportional hazards approach is illustrated with a publicly available electric power outage data set

  19. The Origins of Scintillator Non-Proportionality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, W. W.; Bizarri, G. A.; Williams, R. T.; Payne, S. A.; Vasil'ev, A. N.; Singh, J.; Li, Q.; Grim, J. Q.; Choong, W.-S.

    2012-10-01

    Recent years have seen significant advances in both theoretically understanding and mathematically modeling the underlying causes of scintillator non-proportionality. The core cause is that the interaction of radiation with matter invariably leads to a non-uniform ionization density in the scintillator, coupled with the fact that the light yield depends on the ionization density. The mechanisms that lead to the luminescence dependence on ionization density are incompletely understood, but several important features have been identified, notably Auger-like processes (where two carriers of excitation interact with each other, causing one to de-excite non-radiatively), the inability of excitation carriers to recombine (caused either by trapping or physical separation), and the carrier mobility. This paper reviews the present understanding of the fundamental origins of scintillator non-proportionality, specifically the various theories that have been used to explain non-proportionality.

  20. Sensitivity analysis of an individual-based model for simulation of influenza epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine O Nsoesie

    Full Text Available Individual-based epidemiology models are increasingly used in the study of influenza epidemics. Several studies on influenza dynamics and evaluation of intervention measures have used the same incubation and infectious period distribution parameters based on the natural history of influenza. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the influence of slight changes to these parameters (in addition to the transmissibility would be useful for future studies and real-time modeling during an influenza pandemic.In this study, we examined individual and joint effects of parameters and ranked parameters based on their influence on the dynamics of simulated epidemics. We also compared the sensitivity of the model across synthetic social networks for Montgomery County in Virginia and New York City (and surrounding metropolitan regions with demographic and rural-urban differences. In addition, we studied the effects of changing the mean infectious period on age-specific epidemics. The research was performed from a public health standpoint using three relevant measures: time to peak, peak infected proportion and total attack rate. We also used statistical methods in the design and analysis of the experiments. The results showed that: (i minute changes in the transmissibility and mean infectious period significantly influenced the attack rate; (ii the mean of the incubation period distribution appeared to be sufficient for determining its effects on the dynamics of epidemics; (iii the infectious period distribution had the strongest influence on the structure of the epidemic curves; (iv the sensitivity of the individual-based model was consistent across social networks investigated in this study and (v age-specific epidemics were sensitive to changes in the mean infectious period irrespective of the susceptibility of the other age groups. These findings suggest that small changes in some of the disease model parameters can significantly influence the uncertainty

  1. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  2. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  3. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  4. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  5. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  6. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  7. Large-Scale Analysis of Art Proportions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karl Kristoffer

    2014-01-01

    While literature often tries to impute mathematical constants into art, this large-scale study (11 databases of paintings and photos, around 200.000 items) shows a different truth. The analysis, consisting of the width/height proportions, shows a value of rarely if ever one (square) and with majo......While literature often tries to impute mathematical constants into art, this large-scale study (11 databases of paintings and photos, around 200.000 items) shows a different truth. The analysis, consisting of the width/height proportions, shows a value of rarely if ever one (square...

  8. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  9. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  10. Investigation of a multiwire proportional chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konijn, J.

    1976-01-01

    The article discusses some aspects of a prototype multiwire proportional chamber for electron detection located at IKO in Amsterdam, i.e. voltage, counting rates, noise and gas mixture (argon, ethylene bromide). The efficiency and performance of the chamber have been investigated and an error analysis is given

  11. Author: IM Rautenbach PROPORTIONALITY AND THE LIMITATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    10332324

    public law, it is not clear to me that there are any differences at this more abstract ... Bills of Rights entrench "basic principles of rationality and proportionality – of ..... Sweet Europe of Rights 10-11; Van Dijk and Van Hoof Theory and Practice.

  12. Obtaining a Proportional Allocation by Deleting Items

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dorn, B.; de Haan, R.; Schlotter, I.; Röthe, J.

    2017-01-01

    We consider the following control problem on fair allocation of indivisible goods. Given a set I of items and a set of agents, each having strict linear preference over the items, we ask for a minimum subset of the items whose deletion guarantees the existence of a proportional allocation in the

  13. Proportional green time scheduling for traffic lights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Kovacs; Le, T. (Tung); R. Núñez Queija (Rudesindo); Vu, H. (Hai); N. Walton

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe consider the decentralized scheduling of a large number of urban traffic lights. We investigate factors determining system performance, in particular, the length of the traffic light cycle and the proportion of green time allocated to each junction. We study the effect of the length

  14. Triangular tube proportional wire chamber system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badtke, D H; Bakken, J A; Barnett, B A; Blumenfeld, B J; Chien, C Y; Madansky, L; Matthews, J A.J.; Pevsner, A; Spangler, W J [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (USA); Lee, K L [California Univ., Berkeley (USA). Lawrence Berkeley Lab.

    1981-10-15

    We report on the characteristics of the proportional tube chamber system which has been constructed for muon identification in the PEP-4 experiment at SLAC. The mechanical and electrical properties of the extruded aluminum triangular tubes allow these detectors to be used as crude drift chambers.

  15. Commanding to 'Nudge' via the Proportionality Principle?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.P. Purnhagen (Kai); E. van Kleef (Ellen)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThis piece assesses whether nudging techniques can be argued to be a less restrictive but equally effective way to regulate diets in EU law. It has been argued that nudging techniques, due to their freedom-preserving nature, might influence the proportionality test in such a way that

  16. Proportionality in enterprise development of South African towns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maitland T. Seaman

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We investigated proportionalities in the enterprise structures of 125 South African towns through examining four hypotheses, (1 the magnitude of enterprise development in a town is a function of the population size of the town; (2 the size of an enterprise assemblage of a town is a function of the town’s age; (3 there are statistically significant relationships, and hence proportionalities, between the total number of enterprises in towns and some, if not all, of the enterprise numbers of different business sectors in towns; and (4 the implications of proportionalities have far-reaching implications for rural development and job creation. All hypotheses were accepted on the basis of statistically significant (p < 0.05 correlations, except for the second hypothesis – the age of a town does not determine the size of its enterprise assemblage. Analysis for the fourth hypothesis suggested that there are two broad entrepreneurial types in South African towns: ‘run-of-the-mill’ entrepreneurs and ‘special’ entrepreneurs, which give rise to different enterprise development dynamics. ‘Run-of-the-mill’ enterprises are dependent on, and limited by, local demand and if there is only a small demand, the entrepreneurial space is small. By comparison, ‘special’ enterprises have much larger markets because their products and/or services are exportable. We propose that the fostering of ‘special’ entrepreneurs is an imperative for local economic development in South African towns.

  17. REACH and nanomaterials: current status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alessandrelli, Maria; Di Prospero Fanghella, Paola; Polci, Maria Letizia; Castelli, Stefano; Pettirossi, Flavio

    2015-01-01

    New challenges for regulators are emerging about a specific assessment and appropriate management of the potential risks of nanomaterials. In the framework of European legislation on chemicals, Regulation (EC) No. 1907/2006 REACH aims to ensure the safety of human health and the environment through the collection of information on the physico-chemical characteristics of the substances and on their profile (eco) toxicological and the identification of appropriate risk management linked to 'exposure to these substances without impeding scientific progress and the competitiveness of industry. In order to cover the current shortage of information on the safety of nanomaterials and tackle the acknowledged legal vacuum, are being a rich activities, carried out both by regulators both by stake holders, and discussions on the proposals for adapting the European regulatory framework for chemicals . The European Commission is geared to strengthen the REACH Regulation by means of updates of its annexes. The importance of responding to the regulatory requirements has highlighted the need for cooperation between European organizations, scientists and industries to promote and ensure the safe use of nanomaterials. [it

  18. Measles epidemic in Brazil in the post-elimination period: Coordinated response and containment strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemos, Daniele Rocha Queiroz; Franco, Aidée Ramirez; de Sá Roriz, Maria Lúcia Feitosa; Carneiro, Ana Karine Borges; de Oliveira Garcia, Márcio Henrique; de Souza, Fábia Lidiana; Duron Andino, Regina; de Góes Cavalcanti, Luciano Pamplona

    2017-03-23

    The measles virus circulation was halted in Brazil in 2001 and the country has a routine vaccination coverage against measles, mumps and rubella higher than 95%. In Ceará, the last confirmed case was in 1999. This article describes the strategies adopted and the effectiveness of surveillance and control measures implemented during a measles epidemic in the post-elimination period. The epidemic started in December 2013 and lasted 20 months, reaching 38 cities and 1,052 confirmed cases. The D8 genotype was identified. More than 50,000 samples were tested for measles and 86.4% of the confirmed cases had a laboratory diagnosis. The beginning of an campaign vaccination was delayed in part by the availability of vaccine. The classic control measures were not enough to control the epidemic. The creation of a committee of experts, the agreement signed between managers of the three spheres of government, the conducting of an institutional active search of suspected cases, vaccination door to door at alternative times, the use of micro planning, a broad advertising campaign at local media and technical operative support contributed to containing the epidemic. It is important to recognize the possibility of epidemics at this stage of post-elimination and prepare a sensitive surveillance system for timely response. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Optimal allocation of resources for suppressing epidemic spreading on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hanshuang; Li, Guofeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Hou, Zhonghuai

    2017-07-01

    Efficient allocation of limited medical resources is crucial for controlling epidemic spreading on networks. Based on the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we solve the optimization problem of how best to allocate the limited resources so as to minimize prevalence, providing that the curing rate of each node is positively correlated to its medical resource. By quenched mean-field theory and heterogeneous mean-field (HMF) theory, we prove that an epidemic outbreak will be suppressed to the greatest extent if the curing rate of each node is directly proportional to its degree, under which the effective infection rate λ has a maximal threshold λcopt=1 / , where is the average degree of the underlying network. For a weak infection region (λ ≳λcopt ), we combine perturbation theory with the Lagrange multiplier method (LMM) to derive the analytical expression of optimal allocation of the curing rates and the corresponding minimized prevalence. For a general infection region (λ >λcopt ), the high-dimensional optimization problem is converted into numerically solving low-dimensional nonlinear equations by the HMF theory and LMM. Counterintuitively, in the strong infection region the low-degree nodes should be allocated more medical resources than the high-degree nodes to minimize prevalence. Finally, we use simulated annealing to validate the theoretical results.

  20. Women and AIDS in Zimbabwe: the making of an epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, M T; Mhloyi, M

    1991-01-01

    As the AIDS epidemic in Africa assumes major proportions, the need to understand the social context in which heterosexual transmission occurs takes on urgent importance. In this article we explore how the intersection of traditional culture with the colonial legacy and present-day political economy has influenced family structure and sexual relations, and particularly the social position of women. Drawing on Zimbabwe's historical experience, we show how land expropriation, rural impoverishment, and the forcible introduction of male migrant labor fostered new patterns of sexual relations, characterized by multiple partners. Traditional patriarchal values reinterpreted in European law resulted in further subjugation of women as even limited rights to ownership were withdrawn. For many women, sexual relations with men, either within marriage (for the majority) or outside, become inextricably linked to economic and social survival. In this setting, all sexually transmitted diseases became rampant, including genital ulcer, which facilitates transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Intervention programs to halt the spread of AIDS need to take into the account the epidemic's historical roots and social nature. For example, efforts to reduce risk of HIV transmission should seek to expand women's limited options, both technically (e.g., by providing alternatives to condoms) and socially (e.g., by promoting employment).

  1. Rat-bites of an epidemic proportion in Peshawar vale; a GIS based approach in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatima, Syeda Hira; Zaidi, Farrah; Adnan, Muhammad; Ali, Asad; Jamal, Qaiser; Khisroon, Muhammad

    2018-03-19

    Contemporary studies demonstrate that rodent bites do not occur frequently. However, a huge number of cases were reported from Peshawar vale, Pakistan during 2016. Two species, the local black rat Rattus rattus (Linnaeus, 1758) and the invasive brown rat Rattus norvegicus (Berkenhout, 1769) might be the suspected cause. Several studies indicated the invasion of brown rats into Pakistan presumably via port city of Karachi. In this study, we modeled geospatial distribution of rodent bites for risk assessment in the region. Bite cases reported to tertiary care lady reading hospital were monitored from January 1 to August 31, 2016. Among 1747 cases, statistically informative data (n = 1295) was used for analyses. MaxEnt algorithm was employed for geospatial modeling, taking into account various environmental variables (temperature, precipitation, humidity, and elevation) and anthropogenic factors (human population density, distance from roads, distance from water channels, and land use/land cover). MaxEnt results revealed that urban slums (84.5%) are at highest risk followed by croplands (10.9%) and shrublands (2.7%). Anthropogenic factors affecting incidence of rodent bites included host density (contribution: 34.7), distance from water channels (3.2), land use/land cover (2.8), and distance from roads (2). Most of the cases occurred within a radius of 0.3 km from roads and 5 km from water channels. Rodent bite incidence is currently at its peak in Peshawar vale. Factors significantly affecting rodents' bite activity and their distribution and dispersal include urbanization, distance from roads, and water channels. Further studies are needed to determine the impact of invasion by brown rat on bite incidence.

  2. Quarantine-generated phase transition in epidemic spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, C.; Dickison, M.; Vazquez, F.; Braunstein, L. A.; Macri, P. A.; Migueles, M. V.; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2011-02-01

    We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold wc separating a phase (wspread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation and that wc increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that wc is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes.

  3. Quarantine-generated phase transition in epidemic spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, C; Dickison, M; Vazquez, F; Braunstein, L A; Macri, P A; Migueles, M V; Havlin, S; Stanley, H E

    2011-02-01

    We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold w(c) separating a phase (wspread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation and that w(c) increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that w(c) is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes. ©2011 American Physical Society

  4. A graph theoretical perspective of a drug abuse epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyabadza, F.; Mukwembi, S.; Rodrigues, B. G.

    2011-05-01

    A drug use epidemic can be represented by a finite number of states and transition rules that govern the dynamics of drug use in each discrete time step. This paper investigates the spread of drug use in a community where some users are in treatment and others are not in treatment, citing South Africa as an example. In our analysis, we consider the neighbourhood prevalence of each individual, i.e., the proportion of the individual’s drug user contacts who are not in treatment amongst all of his or her contacts. We introduce parameters α∗, β∗ and γ∗, depending on the neighbourhood prevalence, which govern the spread of drug use. We examine how changes in α∗, β∗ and γ∗ affect the system dynamics. Simulations presented support the theoretical results.

  5. Multistate cohort models with proportional transfer rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoen, Robert; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

    2006-01-01

    of transfer rates. The two living state case and hierarchical multistate models with any number of living states are analyzed in detail. Applying our approach to 1997 U.S. fertility data, we find that observed rates of parity progression are roughly proportional over age. Our proportional transfer rate...... approach provides trajectories by parity state and facilitates analyses of the implications of changes in parity rate levels and patterns. More women complete childbearing at parity 2 than at any other parity, and parity 2 would be the modal parity in models with total fertility rates (TFRs) of 1.40 to 2......We present a new, broadly applicable approach to summarizing the behavior of a cohort as it moves through a variety of statuses (or states). The approach is based on the assumption that all rates of transfer maintain a constant ratio to one another over age. We present closed-form expressions...

  6. Pulse triggering mechanism of air proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoyama, T.; Mori, T.; Watanabe, T.

    1983-01-01

    This paper describes the pulse triggering mechanism of a cylindrical proportional counter filled with air at atmospheric pressure for the incidence of β-rays. Experimental results indicate that primary electrons created distantly from the anode wire by a β-ray are transformed into negative ions, which then detach electrons close to the anode wire and generate electron avalanches thus triggering pulses, while electrons created near the anode wire by a β-ray directly trigger a pulse. Since a negative ion pulse is triggered by a single electron detached from a negative ion, multiple pulses are generated by a large number of ions produced by the incidence of a single β-ray. It is therefore necessary not to count pulses triggered by negative ions but to count those by primary electrons alone when use is made of air proportional counters for the detection of β-rays. (orig.)

  7. Very large area multiwire spectroscopic proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ubertini, P.; Bazzano, A.; Boccaccini, L.; Mastropietro, M.; La Padula, C.D.; Patriarca, R.; Polcaro, V.F.

    1981-01-01

    As a result of a five year development program, a final prototype of a Very Large Area Spectroscopic Proportional Counter (VLASPC), to be employed in space borne payloads, was produced at the Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale, Frascati. The instrument is the last version of a new generation of Multiwire Spectroscopic Proportional Counters (MWSPC) succesfully employed in many balloon borne flights, devoted to hard X-ray astronomy. The sensitive area of this standard unit is 2700 cm 2 with an efficiency higher than 10% in the range 15-180 keV (80% at 60 keV). The low cost and weight make this new type of VLASPC competitive with Nal arrays, phoswich and GSPC detectors in terms of achievable scientific results. (orig.)

  8. Very large area multiwire spectroscopic proportional counters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ubertini, P.; Bazzano, A.; Boccaccini, L.; Mastropietro, M.; La Padula, C.D.; Patriarca, R.; Polcaro, V.F. (Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale, Frascati (Italy))

    1981-07-01

    As a result of a five year development program, a final prototype of a Very Large Area Spectroscopic Proportional Counter (VLASPC), to be employed in space borne payloads, was produced at the Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale, Frascati. The instrument is the last version of a new generation of Multiwire Spectroscopic Proportional Counters (MWSPC) successfully employed in many balloon borne flights, devoted to hard X-ray astronomy. The sensitive area of this standard unit is 2700 cm/sup 2/ with an efficiency higher than 10% in the range 15-180 keV (80% at 60 keV). The low cost and weight make this new type of VLASPC competitive with Nal arrays, phoswich and GSPC detectors in terms of achievable scientific results.

  9. Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

  10. Cylindrical geometry for proportional and drift chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadoulet, B.

    1975-06-01

    For experiments performed around storage rings such as e + e - rings or the ISR pp rings, cylindrical wire chambers are very attractive. They surround the beam pipe completely without any dead region in the azimuth, and fit well with the geometry of events where particles are more or less spherically produced. Unfortunately, cylindrical proportional or drift chambers are difficult to make. Problems are discussed and two approaches to fabricating the cathodes are discussed. (WHK)

  11. 2 π gaseous flux proportional detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guevara, E.A.; Costello, E.D.; Di Carlo, R.O.

    1986-01-01

    A counting system has been developed in order to measure carbon-14 samples obtained in the course of a study of a plasmapheresis treatment for diabetic children. The system is based on the use of a 2π gaseous flux proportional detector especially designed for the stated purpose. The detector is described and experiment results are given, determining the characteristic parameters which set up the working conditions. (Author) [es

  12. General methods for analyzing bounded proportion data

    OpenAIRE

    Hossain, Abu

    2017-01-01

    This thesis introduces two general classes of models for analyzing proportion response variable when the response variable Y can take values between zero and one, inclusive of zero and/or one. The models are inflated GAMLSS model and generalized Tobit GAMLSS model. The inflated GAMLSS model extends the flexibility of beta inflated models by allowing the distribution on (0,1) of the continuous component of the dependent variable to come from any explicit or transformed (i.e. logit or truncated...

  13. Commanding to 'Nudge' via the Proportionality Principle?

    OpenAIRE

    Purnhagen, Kai; van Kleef, Ellen

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThis piece assesses whether nudging techniques can be argued to be a less restrictive but equally effective way to regulate diets in EU law. It has been argued that nudging techniques, due to their freedom-preserving nature, might influence the proportionality test in such a way that authorities need to give preference to nudging techniques over content-related or information regulation. We will illustrate on the example of EU food law how behavioural sciences have first altered t...

  14. Contingency proportion systematically influences contingency learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forrin, Noah D; MacLeod, Colin M

    2018-01-01

    In the color-word contingency learning paradigm, each word appears more often in one color (high contingency) than in the other colors (low contingency). Shortly after beginning the task, color identification responses become faster on the high-contingency trials than on the low-contingency trials-the contingency learning effect. Across five groups, we varied the high-contingency proportion in 10% steps, from 80% to 40%. The size of the contingency learning effect was positively related to high-contingency proportion, with the effect disappearing when high contingency was reduced to 40%. At the two highest contingency proportions, the magnitude of the effect increased over trials, the pattern suggesting that there was an increasing cost for the low-contingency trials rather than an increasing benefit for the high-contingency trials. Overall, the results fit a modified version of Schmidt's (2013, Acta Psychologica, 142, 119-126) parallel episodic processing account in which prior trial instances are routinely retrieved from memory and influence current trial performance.

  15. RABBIT POX : II. PATHOLOGY OF THE EPIDEMIC DISEASE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, H S

    1934-09-30

    The lesions found in animals with epidemic rabbit pox have been described in this paper. The most distinctive gross lesion in all organs and tissues was the small nodule or papule which was found to consist of mononuclear infiltration and necrosis. Diffuse lesions were also found in which the infiltration was widespread and accompanied by edema, hemorrhage and extensive necrosis of affected tissues and organs. The possibility of the diffuse lesions being due to the action of secondary invaders was considered, but available evidence indicated that the different types, including pneumonia, represented reactions to a single causative agent. Moreover, an intimate relationship was observed to exist between lesions and small blood vessels in which primary endothelial damage was usually apparent. The degree of vascular damage generally corresponded to the extent of the lesion and it is probable that this in turn corresponded to the dose of the causative agent. The close analogy between the clinical manifestations and pathological processes of this disease in the rabbit and small pox in man led to the conclusion that the disease in the rabbit is essentially the same as small pox, and that it is probably produced by a virus closely related to the virus of small pox. Available evidence indicated that the infection originated in the Institute and that it spread in atypical form or masked by some other disease until it reached the breeding colony as a clearly defined epidemic infection.

  16. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  17. On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

    2015-12-01

    The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

  18. Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

    2010-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

  19. Diabetes epidemic in the Asia Pacific region: has hemoglobin A1C finally earned its place as a diagnostic tool?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Bagley

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Two-third of the world's population lives in the Asia Pacific region where prevalence of diabetes has reached epidemic proportion. With China and India being the most populous nations on the globe, it is believed that over 150 million diabetes reside in the region with more than 95% being of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Furthermore, other Pacific islands in the region have high rates of T2DM including Tonga, Fiji, French Polynesia, and Nauru. The latter has the highest prevalence of T2DM per population in the world. Over the past two decades, in Australia and New Zealand, the prevalence of T2DM has more than doubled, mainly amongst the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and Maori peoples respectively. With the increasing prevalence of diabetes in the Asia Pacific region coupled with the limited number of resources, use of a reliable and effective mode of diagnosis for T2DM is warranted. Yet to date, only New Zealand has adopted the American Diabetes Association recommendation of using hemoglobin A1C in the diagnosis of the disease. The aim of this review is to discuss the clinical usefulness of hemoglobin A1C and highlight its diagnostic role in the Asia Pacific region where T2DM is increasingly encountered.

  20. Reaching for the red planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, L

    1996-05-01

    The distant shores of Mars were reached by numerous U.S. and Russian spacecraft throughout the 1960s to mid 1970s. Nearly 20 years have passed since those successful missions which orbited and landed on the Martian surface. Two Soviet probes headed for the planet in July, 1988, but later failed. In August 1993, the U.S. Mars Observer suddenly went silent just three days before it was to enter orbit around the planet and was never heard from again. In late 1996, there will be renewed activity on the launch pads with three probes departing for the red planet: 1) The U.S. Mars Global Surveyor will be launched in November on a Delta II rocket and will orbit the planet for global mapping purposes; 2) Russia's Mars '96 mission, scheduled to fly in November on a Proton launcher, consists of an orbiter, two small stations which will land on the Martian surface, and two penetrators that will plow into the terrain; and finally, 3) a U.S. Discovery-class spacecraft, the Mars Pathfinder, has a December launch date atop a Delta II booster. The mission features a lander and a microrover that will travel short distances over Martian territory. These missions usher in a new phase of Mars exploration, setting the stage for an unprecedented volley of spacecraft that will orbit around, land on, drive across, and perhaps fly at low altitudes over the planet.

  1. Metasurface holograms reaching 80% efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Guoxing; Mühlenbernd, Holger; Kenney, Mitchell; Li, Guixin; Zentgraf, Thomas; Zhang, Shuang

    2015-04-01

    Surfaces covered by ultrathin plasmonic structures--so-called metasurfaces--have recently been shown to be capable of completely controlling the phase of light, representing a new paradigm for the design of innovative optical elements such as ultrathin flat lenses, directional couplers for surface plasmon polaritons and wave plate vortex beam generation. Among the various types of metasurfaces, geometric metasurfaces, which consist of an array of plasmonic nanorods with spatially varying orientations, have shown superior phase control due to the geometric nature of their phase profile. Metasurfaces have recently been used to make computer-generated holograms, but the hologram efficiency remained too low at visible wavelengths for practical purposes. Here, we report the design and realization of a geometric metasurface hologram reaching diffraction efficiencies of 80% at 825 nm and a broad bandwidth between 630 nm and 1,050 nm. The 16-level-phase computer-generated hologram demonstrated here combines the advantages of a geometric metasurface for the superior control of the phase profile and of reflectarrays for achieving high polarization conversion efficiency. Specifically, the design of the hologram integrates a ground metal plane with a geometric metasurface that enhances the conversion efficiency between the two circular polarization states, leading to high diffraction efficiency without complicating the fabrication process. Because of these advantages, our strategy could be viable for various practical holographic applications.

  2. Using Facebook to Reach People Who Experience Auditory Hallucinations

    OpenAIRE

    Crosier, Benjamin Sage; Brian, Rachel Marie; Ben-Zeev, Dror

    2016-01-01

    Background Auditory hallucinations (eg, hearing voices) are relatively common and underreported false sensory experiences that may produce distress and impairment. A large proportion of those who experience auditory hallucinations go unidentified and untreated. Traditional engagement methods oftentimes fall short in reaching the diverse population of people who experience auditory hallucinations. Objective The objective of this proof-of-concept study was to examine the viability of leveraging...

  3. The spreading time in SIS epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhidong; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2018-03-01

    In a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) process, we investigate the spreading time Tm, which is the time when the number of infected nodes in the metastable state is first reached, starting from the outbreak of the epidemics. We observe that the spreading time Tm resembles a lognormal-like distribution, though with different deep tails, both for the Markovian and the non-Markovian infection process, which implies that the spreading time can be very long with a relatively high probability. In addition, we show that a stronger virus, with a higher effective infection rate τ or an earlier timing of the infection attempts, does not always lead to a shorter average spreading time E [Tm ] . We numerically demonstrate that the average spreading time E [Tm ] in the complete graph and the star graph scales logarithmically as a function of the network size N for a fixed fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state.

  4. Temporal percolation of the susceptible network in an epidemic spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Macri, Pablo Alejandro; Braunstein, Lidia Adriana

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental approach and percolation tools, we find that a time-dependent quantity ΦS(t), namely, the probability that a given neighbor of a node is susceptible at time t, is the control parameter of a node void percolation process involving those nodes on the network not-reached by the disease. We show that there exists a critical time t(c) above which the giant susceptible component is destroyed. As a consequence, in order to preserve a macroscopic connected fraction of the network composed by healthy individuals which guarantee its functionality, any mitigation strategy should be implemented before this critical time t(c). Our theoretical results are confirmed by extensive simulations of the SIR process.

  5. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

  6. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  7. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  8. Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

  9. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-06-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  10. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  11. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-01-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

  12. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  13. Designing an optimally proportional inorganic scintillator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Jai, E-mail: jai.singh@cdu.edu.au [School of Engineering and IT, B-Purple-12, Faculty of EHSE, Charles Darwin University, NT 0909 (Australia); Koblov, Alexander [School of Engineering and IT, B-Purple-12, Faculty of EHSE, Charles Darwin University, NT 0909 (Australia)

    2012-09-01

    The nonproportionality observed in the light yield of inorganic scintillators is studied theoretically as a function of the rates of bimolecular and Auger quenching processes occurring within the electron track initiated by a gamma- or X-ray photon incident on a scintillator. Assuming a cylindrical track, the influence of the track radius and concentration of excitations created within the track on the scintillator light yield is also studied. Analysing the calculated light yield a guideline for inventing an optimally proportional scintillator with optimal energy resolution is presented.

  14. Designing an optimally proportional inorganic scintillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Jai; Koblov, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The nonproportionality observed in the light yield of inorganic scintillators is studied theoretically as a function of the rates of bimolecular and Auger quenching processes occurring within the electron track initiated by a gamma- or X-ray photon incident on a scintillator. Assuming a cylindrical track, the influence of the track radius and concentration of excitations created within the track on the scintillator light yield is also studied. Analysing the calculated light yield a guideline for inventing an optimally proportional scintillator with optimal energy resolution is presented.

  15. Rate dependent image distortions in proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trow, M.W.; Bento, A.C.; Smith, A.

    1994-01-01

    The positional linearity of imaging proportional counters is affected by the intensity distribution of the incident radiation. A mechanism for this effect is described, in which drifting positive ions in the gas produce a distorting electric field which perturbs the trajectories of the primary electrons. In certain cases, the phenomenon causes an apparent improvement of the position resolution. We demonstrate the effect in a detector filled with a xenon-argon-CO 2 mixture. The images obtained are compared with the results of a simulation. If quantitative predictions for a particular detector are required, accurate values of the absolute detector gain, ion mobility and electron drift velocity are needed. ((orig.))

  16. Hydrogen high pressure proportional drift detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arefiev, A.; Balaev, A.

    1983-01-01

    The design and operation performances of a proportional drift detector PDD are described. High sensitivity of the applied PAD makes it possible to detect the neutron-proton elastic scattering in the energy range of recoil protons as low as 1 keV. The PDD is filled with hydrogen up to the pressure at 40 bars. High purity of the gas is maintained by a continuously operating purification system. The detector has been operating for several years in a neutron beam at the North Area of the CERN SPS

  17. Viking-Age Sails: Form and Proportion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischoff, Vibeke

    2017-04-01

    Archaeological ship-finds have shed much light on the design and construction of vessels from the Viking Age. However, the exact proportions of their sails remain unknown due to the lack of fully preserved sails, or other definite indicators of their proportions. Key Viking-Age ship-finds from Scandinavia—the Oseberg Ship, the Gokstad Ship and Skuldelev 3—have all revealed traces of rigging. In all three finds, the keelson—with the mast position—is preserved, together with fastenings for the sheets and the tack, indicating the breadth of the sail. The sail area can then be estimated based on practical experience of how large a sail the specific ship can carry, in conjunction with hull form and displacement. This article presents reconstructions of the form and dimensions of rigging and sail based on the archaeological finds, evidence from iconographic and written sources, and ethnographic parallels with traditional Nordic boats. When these sources are analysed, not only do the similarities become apparent, but so too does the relative disparity between the archaeological record and the other sources. Preferential selection in terms of which source is given the greatest merit is therefore required, as it is not possible to afford them all equal value.

  18. Amplifier Design for Proportional Ionization Chambers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, W. H.

    1950-08-24

    This paper presents the requirements of a nuclear amplifier of short resolving time, designed to accept pulses of widely varying amplitudes. Data are given which show that a proportional ionization chamber loaded with a 1,000-ohm resistor develops pulses of 0.5 microsecond duration and several volts amplitude. Results indicate that seven basic requirements are imposed on the amplifier when counting soft beta and gamma radiation in the presence of alpha particles, without absorbers. It should, (1) have a fast recovery time, (2) have a relatively good low frequency response, (3) accept pulses of widely varying heights without developing spurious pulsed, (4) have a limiting output stage, (5) preserve the inherently short rise time of the chamber, (6) minimize pulse integration, and (7) have sufficient gain to detect the weak pulses well below the chamber voltage at which continuous discharge takes place. The results obtained with an amplifier which meets these requirements is described. A formula is derived which indicates that redesign of the proportional ionization chamber might eliminate the need for an amplifier. This may be possible if the radioactive particles are collimated parallel to the collecting electrode.

  19. Divine proportions in attractive and nonattractive faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancherz, Hans; Knapp, Verena; Erbe, Christina; Heiss, Anja Melina

    2010-01-01

    To test Ricketts' 1982 hypothesis that facial beauty is measurable by comparing attractive and nonattractive faces of females and males with respect to the presence of the divine proportions. The analysis of frontal view facial photos of 90 cover models (50 females, 40 males) from famous fashion magazines and of 34 attractive (29 females, five males) and 34 nonattractive (13 females, 21 males) persons selected from a group of former orthodontic patients was carried out in this study. Based on Ricketts' method, five transverse and seven vertical facial reference distances were measured and compared with the corresponding calculated divine distances expressed in phi-relationships (f=1.618). Furthermore, transverse and vertical facial disproportion indices were created. For both the models and patients, all the reference distances varied largely from respective divine values. The average deviations ranged from 0.3% to 7.8% in the female groups of models and attractive patients with no difference between them. In the male groups of models and attractive patients, the average deviations ranged from 0.2% to 11.2%. When comparing attractive and nonattractive female, as well as male, patients, deviations from the divine values for all variables were larger in the nonattractive sample. Attractive individuals have facial proportions closer to the divine values than nonattractive ones. In accordance with the hypothesis of Ricketts, facial beauty is measurable to some degree. COPYRIGHT © 2009 BY QUINTESSENCE PUBLISHING CO, INC.

  20. Kalman-predictive-proportional-integral-derivative (KPPID)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fluerasu, A.; Sutton, M.

    2004-01-01

    With third generation synchrotron X-ray sources, it is possible to acquire detailed structural information about the system under study with time resolution orders of magnitude faster than was possible a few years ago. These advances have generated many new challenges for changing and controlling the state of the system on very short time scales, in a uniform and controlled manner. For our particular X-ray experiments on crystallization or order-disorder phase transitions in metallic alloys, we need to change the sample temperature by hundreds of degrees as fast as possible while avoiding over or under shooting. To achieve this, we designed and implemented a computer-controlled temperature tracking system which combines standard Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) feedback, thermal modeling and finite difference thermal calculations (feedforward), and Kalman filtering of the temperature readings in order to reduce the noise. The resulting Kalman-Predictive-Proportional-Integral-Derivative (KPPID) algorithm allows us to obtain accurate control, to minimize the response time and to avoid over/under shooting, even in systems with inherently noisy temperature readings and time delays. The KPPID temperature controller was successfully implemented at the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratories and was used to perform coherent and time-resolved X-ray diffraction experiments.

  1. Proportional-Integral-Resonant AC Current Controller

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    STOJIC, D.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper an improved stationary-frame AC current controller based on the proportional-integral-resonant control action (PIR is proposed. Namely, the novel two-parameter PIR controller is applied in the stationary-frame AC current control, accompanied by the corresponding parameter-tuning procedure. In this way, the proportional-resonant (PR controller, common in the stationary-frame AC current control, is extended by the integral (I action in order to enable the AC current DC component tracking, and, also, to enable the DC disturbance compensation, caused by the voltage source inverter (VSI nonidealities and by nonlinear loads. The proposed controller parameter-tuning procedure is based on the three-phase back-EMF-type load, which corresponds to a wide range of AC power converter applications, such as AC motor drives, uninterruptible power supplies, and active filters. While the PIR controllers commonly have three parameters, the novel controller has two. Also, the provided parameter-tuning procedure needs only one parameter to be tuned in relation to the load and power converter model parameters, since the second controller parameter is directly derived from the required controller bandwidth value. The dynamic performance of the proposed controller is verified by means of simulation and experimental runs.

  2. Genome-wide study of the defective sucrose fermenter strain of Vibrio cholerae from the Latin American cholera epidemic.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garza, D.R.; Thompson, C.C.; Loureiro, E.C.; Dutilh, B.E.; Inada, D.T.; Junior, E.C.; Cardoso, J.F.; Nunes, M.R.; Lima, C.P. de; Silvestre, R.V.; Nunes, K.N.; Santos, E.C.; Edwards, R.A.; Vicente, A.C.; Sa Morais, L.L. de

    2012-01-01

    The 7th cholera pandemic reached Latin America in 1991, spreading from Peru to virtually all Latin American countries. During the late epidemic period, a strain that failed to ferment sucrose dominated cholera outbreaks in the Northern Brazilian Amazon region. In order to understand the genomic

  3. Impact of the HIV epidemic on population and household structure: the dynamics and evidence to date.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heuveline, Patrick

    2004-06-01

    HIV is contracted most frequently at birth and during early adulthood. The epidemic may thus impact the demographic structure and the household structure of affected populations. This paper reviews earlier evidence of such an impact, uses demographic theory to anticipate its changes over time, and reviews the most recent evidence for indications of these changes. Modest increases in the male : female ratio are beginning to show within certain age groups only (approximately 15% among 25-34 year olds). Similarly sized increases in the proportion of 15-29 year olds relative to 30-54 year olds are observed in some age pyramids. These 'youth bulges' are expected to fade out, whereas an aging effect phases in with the fertility impact of the epidemic. In the longer run, the size of all age groups will be reduced, but relatively less so for middle-aged adults. Proportions of orphans and widows have increased in the most affected countries. Fewer remarriage probabilities for widows were observed. Resulting increases in the proportion of female-headed households should only be temporary, as female mortality is catching up with male mortality. The number of double orphans is beginning to increase, but overall, orphans continue to live predominantly with a family member, most often the grandparents if not with the surviving parent. To date, the epidemic's impact on the population and household structure has been limited by demographic (aging) and social (adaptive movements of kin across households) processes that contribute to diffuse the epidemic throughout the entire population and all households.

  4. Improving risk models for avian influenza: the role of intensive poultry farming and flooded land during the 2004 Thailand epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Robinson, Timothy; Biradar, Chandrashekhar M; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

    2012-01-01

    Since 1996 when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N1 first emerged in southern China, numerous studies sought risk factors and produced risk maps based on environmental and anthropogenic predictors. However little attention has been paid to the link between the level of intensification of poultry production and the risk of outbreak. This study revised H5N1 risk mapping in Central and Western Thailand during the second wave of the 2004 epidemic. Production structure was quantified using a disaggregation methodology based on the number of poultry per holding. Population densities of extensively- and intensively-raised ducks and chickens were derived both at the sub-district and at the village levels. LandSat images were used to derive another previously neglected potential predictor of HPAI H5N1 risk: the proportion of water in the landscape resulting from floods. We used Monte Carlo simulation of Boosted Regression Trees models of predictor variables to characterize the risk of HPAI H5N1. Maps of mean risk and uncertainty were derived both at the sub-district and the village levels. The overall accuracy of Boosted Regression Trees models was comparable to that of logistic regression approaches. The proportion of area flooded made the highest contribution to predicting the risk of outbreak, followed by the densities of intensively-raised ducks, extensively-raised ducks and human population. Our results showed that as little as 15% of flooded land in villages is sufficient to reach the maximum level of risk associated with this variable. The spatial pattern of predicted risk is similar to previous work: areas at risk are mainly located along the flood plain of the Chao Phraya river and to the south-east of Bangkok. Using high-resolution village-level poultry census data, rather than sub-district data, the spatial accuracy of predictions was enhanced to highlight local variations in risk. Such maps provide useful information to guide intervention.

  5. Improving risk models for avian influenza: the role of intensive poultry farming and flooded land during the 2004 Thailand epidemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas P Van Boeckel

    Full Text Available Since 1996 when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N1 first emerged in southern China, numerous studies sought risk factors and produced risk maps based on environmental and anthropogenic predictors. However little attention has been paid to the link between the level of intensification of poultry production and the risk of outbreak. This study revised H5N1 risk mapping in Central and Western Thailand during the second wave of the 2004 epidemic. Production structure was quantified using a disaggregation methodology based on the number of poultry per holding. Population densities of extensively- and intensively-raised ducks and chickens were derived both at the sub-district and at the village levels. LandSat images were used to derive another previously neglected potential predictor of HPAI H5N1 risk: the proportion of water in the landscape resulting from floods. We used Monte Carlo simulation of Boosted Regression Trees models of predictor variables to characterize the risk of HPAI H5N1. Maps of mean risk and uncertainty were derived both at the sub-district and the village levels. The overall accuracy of Boosted Regression Trees models was comparable to that of logistic regression approaches. The proportion of area flooded made the highest contribution to predicting the risk of outbreak, followed by the densities of intensively-raised ducks, extensively-raised ducks and human population. Our results showed that as little as 15% of flooded land in villages is sufficient to reach the maximum level of risk associated with this variable. The spatial pattern of predicted risk is similar to previous work: areas at risk are mainly located along the flood plain of the Chao Phraya river and to the south-east of Bangkok. Using high-resolution village-level poultry census data, rather than sub-district data, the spatial accuracy of predictions was enhanced to highlight local variations in risk. Such maps provide useful information to guide

  6. BCE selector valves and flow proportional sampler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rippy, G.L.

    1994-01-01

    This Acceptance Test Procedure (ATP) has been prepared to demonstrate that the Electrical/Instrumentation systems for the B-Plant Process Condensate Treatment Facility (BCE) function as required by project criteria. Tests will be run to: Verify the operation of the solenoid valve and associated limit switches installed for the BCE portion of W-007H; Operate the solenoid valve and verify the proper operation of the associated limit switches based on the position of the solenoid valve;and, Demonstrate the integrity of the Sample Failure Alarm Relay XFA-211BA-BCE-1, and Power Failure ALarm Relay JFA-211BA-BCE-1 located inside the Flow Proportional Sampler in Building 211 BA

  7. Absolute calibration of TFTR helium proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strachan, J.D.; Diesso, M.; Jassby, D.; Johnson, L.; McCauley, S.; Munsat, T.; Roquemore, A.L.; Loughlin, M.

    1995-06-01

    The TFTR helium proportional counters are located in the central five (5) channels of the TFTR multichannel neutron collimator. These detectors were absolutely calibrated using a 14 MeV neutron generator positioned at the horizontal midplane of the TFTR vacuum vessel. The neutron generator position was scanned in centimeter steps to determine the collimator aperture width to 14 MeV neutrons and the absolute sensitivity of each channel. Neutron profiles were measured for TFTR plasmas with time resolution between 5 msec and 50 msec depending upon count rates. The He detectors were used to measure the burnup of 1 MeV tritons in deuterium plasmas, the transport of tritium in trace tritium experiments, and the residual tritium levels in plasmas following 50:50 DT experiments

  8. CWRU multiwire proportional counter readout system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bevington, P.R.; Leskovec, R.A.

    1977-01-01

    An electronic system is described which translates pulses from individual wires of multiwire proportional counters into binary addresses indicating the location of the wires in the chambers. The system combines a fast (<100 ns) serial scan of an event buffer with parallel encoding to provide fast transfer of addresses (250 ns per hit). The buffer has provision for disabling the input less than 40 ns after detection of an event to suppress recording of multiple hits caused by individual events. The encoder can digitize the address of every hit encountered or just the first addresses of contiguous hits. The system includes a coincidence trigger for determining whether timing criteria have been satisfied between chambers and with external devices. Events which do not meet the coincidence criteria are typically reset within 400 ns. The addresses are transferred to a computer interface through CAMAC modules. Multiple buffering permits further data acquisition during CAMAC transfer cycles. (Auth.)

  9. Fabrication of preamplifier for proportional counter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lotfi, Y.; Yazdanpanah, M.; Talebi, B.; Mohammadi, A.; Etaati, Gh.

    2002-01-01

    We have tried to describe techniques of preamplifier fabrication for proportional counter. At first electronic circuit of preamplifier has been analyzed by means of Or cad 9.1. Then we assembled the circuit. Thereafter essential and standard parameters of preamplifier has been measured and compared with foreign made one, according to IEEE standard method. (IEEE Std 301-1988) Specification for our preamplifier is: 1. Rise time of output plus: 25 nsec. 2. Fall time of output pulse: 50μ sec. 3. Charge sensitive: 46.3 mV/pc. 4. Average noise: 500 ion pair (rms) 5. Count R ate L imit: 9.14*10 10 Count/sec. 6. Resolution: %1.3 7. Spectrum of Bf3 detector to 300μ Ci Am-Be source for this preamplifier is the same as foreign one. On the Whole comparison of this preamplifier with the foreign one shows that their parameters similarity is about %95

  10. Tables of Confidence Limits for Proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-09-01

    0.972 180 49 0.319 0.332 0,357 175 165 0.964 0.969 0.976 ISO 50 0.325 0.338 0.363 175 166 0.969 0.973 0.980 180 51 0.331 0.344 0.368 175 167 0.973 0.977...0.528 180 18 0.135 0 145 0.164 180 19 0.141 0.151 0.171 ISO 80 0.495 0,508 0.534 347 UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMIT FOR PROPORTIONS CONFIDENCE LEVEL...500 409 0.8401 0.8459 0.8565 500 355 0.7364 0.7434 0.7564 500 356 0.7383 0.7453 0.7582 500 410 0.8420 0.8478 0 8583 500 357 0.7402 0.7472 0.7602 500

  11. Proportional chamber with data analog output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popov, V.E.; Prokof'ev, A.N.

    1977-01-01

    A proportional multiwier chamber is described. The chamber makes it possible to determine angles at wich a pion strikes a polarized target. A delay line, made of 60-core flat cable is used for removing signals from the chamber. From the delay line, signals are amplified and successively injected into shapers and a time-to-amplitude converter. An amplitude of the time-to amplitude converter output signal unambiguously determines the coordinate of a point at which a particle strikes the chamber plane. There are also given circuits of amplifiers, which consist of a preamplifier with gain 30 and a main amplifier with adjustable gain. Data on testing the chamber with the 450 MeV pion beam is demonstrated. The chamber features an efficiency of about 98 per cent under load of 2x10 5 s -1

  12. Proportional representation apportionment methods and their applications

    CERN Document Server

    Pukelsheim, Friedrich

    2017-01-01

    The book offers an in-depth study of the translation of vote counts into seat numbers in proportional representation systems  – an approach guided by practical needs. It also provides plenty of empirical instances illustrating the results. It analyzes in detail the 2014 elections to the European Parliament in the 28 member states, as well as the 2009 and 2013 elections to the German Bundestag. This second edition is a complete revision and expanded version of the first edition published in 2014, and many empirical election results that serve as examples have been updated. Further, a final chapter has been added assembling biographical sketches and authoritative quotes from individuals who pioneered the development of apportionment methodology. The mathematical exposition and the interrelations with political science and constitutional jurisprudence make this an apt resource for interdisciplinary courses and seminars on electoral systems and apportionment methods.

  13. Quality measurement by proportional counter with B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onizuka, Yoshihiko; Endo, Satoru; Tanaka, Kenichi

    2005-01-01

    The dosimetry of air and the tissue-equivalent phantom made of acryl are carried out by the tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) and TEPC with wall contained B, and both results were compared. The changes of quality with distance from the beam center are determined by the frequency mean renewal energy y F (y)and the dose mean renewal energy y D (y) as indicators of quality. Both y F (y)and y D (y) of tissue-equivalent phantom are larger than air, but very large change was not observed in all distance. The dose rate is determined by y D (y), the number of events and measurement time. Change of dose rate was larger than the change of quality. The maximum value of dose rate depended on γray and neutron beam showed at the point 2 cm away from the center. (S.Y.)

  14. Proportional counter system for radiation measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sugimoto, M; Okudera, S

    1970-11-21

    A gas such as Xe or Kr employed in counter tubes is charged into the counter tube of a gas-flow type proportional counter for radiation measurement and into a vessel having a volume larger than that of the counter tube. The vessel communicates with the counter tube to circulate the gas via a pump through both the vessel and tube during measurement. An organic film such as a polyester synthetic resin film is used for the window of the counter tube to measure X-rays in the long wavelength range. Accordingly, a wide range of X-rays can be measured including both long and short wavelengths ranges by utilizing only one counter tube, thus permitting the gases employed to be effectively used.

  15. Count rate effect in proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bednarek, B.

    1980-01-01

    A new concept is presented explaining changes in spectrometric parameters of proportional counters which occur due to varying count rate. The basic feature of this concept is that the gas gain of the counter remains constant in a wide range of count rate and that the decrease in the pulse amplitude and the detorioration of the energy resolution observed are the results of changes in the shape of original current pulses generated in the active volume of the counter. In order to confirm the validity of this statement, measurements of the gas amplification factor have been made in a wide count rate range. It is shown that above a certain critical value the gas gain depends on both the operating voltage and the count rate. (author)

  16. Social and economic influences on human behavioural response in an emerging epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phang, P.; Wiwatanapataphee, B.; Wu, Y. H.

    2017-10-01

    The human behavioural changes have been recognized as an important key in shaping the disease spreading and determining the success of control measures in the course of epidemic outbreaks. However, apart from cost-benefit considerations, in reality, people are heterogeneous in their preferences towards adopting certain protective actions to reduce their risk of infection, and social norms have a function in individuals’ decision making. Here, we studied the interplay between the epidemic dynamics, imitation dynamics and the heterogeneity of individual protective behavioural response under the considerations of both economic and social factors, with a simple mathematical compartmental model and multi-population game dynamical replicator equations. We assume that susceptibles in different subpopulations have different preferences in adopting either normal or altered behaviour. By incorporating both intra- and inter-group social pressure, the outcome of the strategy distribution depends on the initial proportion of susceptible with normal and altered strategies in both subpopulations. The increase of additional cost to susceptible with altered behaviour will discourage people to take up protective actions and hence results in higher epidemic final size. For a specific cost of altered behaviour, the social group pressure could be a “double edge sword”, though. We conclude that the interplays between individual protective behaviour adoption, imitation and epidemic dynamics are necessarily complex if both economic and social factors act on populations with existing preferences.

  17. Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains potentially involved in the TB epidemic in Sweden a century ago.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona Groenheit

    Full Text Available UNLABELLED: A hundred years ago the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB in Sweden was one of the highest in the world. In this study we conducted a population-based search for distinct strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolated from patients born in Sweden before 1945. Many of these isolates represent the M. tuberculosis complex population that fueled the TB epidemic in Sweden during the first half of the 20(th century. METHODS: Genetic relationships between strains that caused the epidemic and present day strains were studied by spoligotyping and restriction fragment length polymorphism. RESULTS: The majority of the isolates from the elderly population were evolutionary recent Principal Genetic Group (PGG2/3 strains (363/409 or 88.8%, and only a low proportion were ancient PGG1 strains (24/409 or 5.9%. Twenty-two were undefined. The isolates demonstrated a population where the Euro-American superlineage dominated; in particular with Haarlem (41.1% and T (37.7% spoligotypes and only 21.2% belonged to other spoligotype families. Isolates from the elderly population clustered much less frequently than did isolates from a young control group population. CONCLUSIONS: A closely knit pool of PGG2/3 strains restricted to Sweden and its immediate neighbours appears to have played a role in the epidemic, while PGG1 strains are usually linked to migrants in todaýs Sweden. Further studies of these outbreak strains may give indications of why the epidemic waned.

  18. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

  19. the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

  20. Phylogenetics of the Danish HIV epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, Anne Margrethe; Cowan, Susan A; Obel, Niels

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND:: In Denmark 300 new individuals are diagnosed with HIV every year, despite decades of public health campaigns aimed to raise awareness of potential risk behaviour for HIV transmission. It is important to identify the driving forces of the epidemic, to enable more targeted campaigns...

  1. CDC Vital Signs: Today's Heroin Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the MMWR Science Clips Today’s Heroin Epidemic More people at risk, multiple drugs abused Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This Page Overview Problem Infographics What Can Be Done Issue Details Overview Heroin use has increased across the US among men and ...

  2. [A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

    1994-01-01

    A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

  3. The Prescription Opioid Pain Medication Overdose Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-04-19

    Overdose related to prescription opioids has become an epidemic. This podcast discusses the risks of this type of drug sometimes used to treat pain, and how to protect yourself. .  Created: 4/19/2016 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 4/19/2016.

  4. Alternative risk financing instruments for swine epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2003-01-01

    Swine epidemics can have very large devastating financial consequences. Governments generally bear the direct losses, such as the value of destroyed animals. Consequential losses, such as the losses resulting from empty buildings and movement standstills, are completely borne by the farmers (and

  5. A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

    2011-12-01

    A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

  6. Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2012-01-01

    We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

  7. [Notes about other epidemics in Colonial Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laval, Enrique

    2015-10-01

    In chronicles or in the historiography of the Colony in Chile there are few references about epidemics different to smallpox; like typhus, typhoid fever, dysentery, etc. Almost all, fast spreading in the country and some with high lethality, which led to overflowing the capacity of hospitals in the Chilean colonial period.

  8. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  9. Cholera Epidemic Control | Zachariah | Malawi Medical Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malawi Medical Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 13, No 1 (2001) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Cholera Epidemic Control. R Zachariah. Full Text: EMAIL FREE ...

  10. Social epidemics in the aftermath of disasters.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJzermans, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    Issue/problem: After disasters, terrorist attacks and wars social epidemics of medically unexplained physical symptoms/syndromes (ups) are often seen. In modern times people feel more vulnerable and especially under pressure of those incidents, everyday symptoms are interpreted as disease and

  11. ALMA Telescope Reaches New Heights

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-01

    ball at a distance of nine miles, and to keep their smooth reflecting surfaces accurate to less than the thickness of a human hair. Once the transporter reached the high plateau it carried the antenna to a concrete pad -- a docking station with connections for power and fiber optics -- and positioned it with an accuracy of a small fraction of an inch. The transporter is guided by a laser steering system and, just like some cars, also has ultrasonic collision detectors. These sensors ensure the safety of the state-of-the-art antennas as the transporter drives them across what will soon be a rather crowded plateau. Ultimately, ALMA will have at least 66 antennas distributed over about 200 pads, spread over distances of up to 11.5 miles and operating as a single, giant telescope. Even when ALMA is fully operational, the transporters will be used to move the antennas between pads to reconfigure the telescope for different kinds of observations. This first ALMA antenna at the high site will soon be joined by others, and the ALMA team looks forward to making their first observations from the Chajnantor plateau. They plan to link three antennas by early 2010, and to make the first scientific observations with ALMA in the second half of 2011. ALMA will help astronomers answer important questions about our cosmic origins. The telescope will observe the Universe using light with millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths, between infrared light and radio waves in the electromagnetic spectrum. Light at these wavelengths comes from some of the coldest, and from some of the most distant objects in the cosmos. These include cold clouds of gas and dust where new stars are being born, or remote galaxies towards the edge of the observable universe. The Universe is relatively unexplored at submillimeter wavelengths, as the telescopes need extremely dry atmospheric conditions, such as those at Chajnantor, and advanced detector technology. The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array

  12. A phenomenological SMA model for combined axial–torsional proportional/non-proportional loading conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodaghi, M.; Damanpack, A.R.; Aghdam, M.M.; Shakeri, M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a simple and robust phenomenological model for shape memory alloys (SMAs) is proposed to simulate main features of SMAs under uniaxial as well as biaxial combined axial–torsional proportional/non-proportional loadings. The constitutive model for polycrystalline SMAs is developed within the framework of continuum thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The model nominates the volume fractions of self-accommodated and oriented martensite as scalar internal variables and the preferred direction of oriented martensitic variants as directional internal variable. An algorithm is introduced to develop explicit relationships for the thermo-mechanical behavior of SMAs under uniaxial and biaxial combined axial–torsional proportional/non-proportional loading conditions and also thermal loading. It is shown that the model is able to simulate main aspects of SMAs including self-accommodation, martensitic transformation, orientation and reorientation of martensite, shape memory effect, ferro-elasticity and pseudo-elasticity. A description of the time-discrete counterpart of the proposed SMA model is presented. Experimental results of uniaxial tension and biaxial combined tension–torsion non-proportional tests are simulated and a good qualitative correlation between numerical and experimental responses is achieved. Due to simplicity and accuracy, the model is expected to be used in the future studies dealing with the analysis of SMA devices in which two stress components including one normal and one shear stress are dominant

  13. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  14. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  15. The multi-stage proportional chamber in the detection of Cherenkov rings for particle recognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauli, F.

    1979-01-01

    The multi-stage proportional chamber enables very high gains of 10 6 or more to be reached in gaseous mixtures offering a very good quantum efficiency in the far ultra-violet range. This makes it an ideal instrument for detecting and locating the photons emitted by Cerenkov effect in appropriate radiators [fr

  16. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  17. Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-06-01

    The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

  18. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  19. Evolution of scaling emergence in large-scale spatial epidemic spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Li, Xiang; Zhang, Yi-Qing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Kan

    2011-01-01

    Zipf's law and Heaps' law are two representatives of the scaling concepts, which play a significant role in the study of complexity science. The coexistence of the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law motivates different understandings on the dependence between these two scalings, which has still hardly been clarified. In this article, we observe an evolution process of the scalings: the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law are naturally shaped to coexist at the initial time, while the crossover comes with the emergence of their inconsistency at the larger time before reaching a stable state, where the Heaps' law still exists with the disappearance of strict Zipf's law. Such findings are illustrated with a scenario of large-scale spatial epidemic spreading, and the empirical results of pandemic disease support a universal analysis of the relation between the two laws regardless of the biological details of disease. Employing the United States domestic air transportation and demographic data to construct a metapopulation model for simulating the pandemic spread at the U.S. country level, we uncover that the broad heterogeneity of the infrastructure plays a key role in the evolution of scaling emergence. The analyses of large-scale spatial epidemic spreading help understand the temporal evolution of scalings, indicating the coexistence of the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law depends on the collective dynamics of epidemic processes, and the heterogeneity of epidemic spread indicates the significance of performing targeted containment strategies at the early time of a pandemic disease.

  20. Multiple effects of self-protection on the spreading of epidemics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Zhigang; Zhang, Haifeng; Wang, Zhen

    2014-01-01

    Aside from the commonly considered strategies: vaccination or risk, in this work another basic policy self-protection strategy is incorporated into research of epidemics spreading. Then within the network-theoretical framework, we mainly explore the impact of self-protection strategy on the epidemic size and the eradication of infection. Interestingly, we find that the self-protection influence is multiple: given that the effectiveness of the self-protective strategy is negligible, nobody is willing to take up this act, both vaccination and risk traits dominate the whole system; On the contrary, when the effectiveness of self-protective policy is elevated, it becomes a popular strategy and the size of epidemic can be controlled at a relatively low level. However, one worse situation is present as well: when the effectiveness of self-protection is moderate, the infection probability and epidemic size can reach the maximal level. This is because that, under such a case, the emergence of the self-protective strategy neither inspires the enthusiasm of vaccination nor provides ideal effect

  1. Calibration of proportional counters in microdosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varma, M.N.

    1982-01-01

    Many microdosimetric spectra for low LET as well as high LET radiations are measured using commercially available (similar to EG and G) Rossi proportional counters. This paper discusses the corrections to be applied to data when calibration of the counter is made using one type of radiation, and then the counter is used in a different radiation field. The principal correction factor is due to differences in W-value of the radiation used for calibration and the radiation for which microdosimetric measurements are made. Both propane and methane base tissue-equivalent (TE) gases are used in these counters. When calibrating the detectors, it is important to use the correct stopping power value for that gas. Deviations in y-bar/sub F/ and y-bar/sub D/ are calculated for 60 Co using different extrapolation procedures from 0.15 keV/μm to zero event size. These deviations can be as large as 30%. Advantages of reporting microdosimetric parameters such as y-bar/sub F/ and y-bar/sub D/ above a certain minimum cut-off are discussed

  2. Environmental drivers of sapwood and heartwood proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Recent advances combining information on stem volume from remote sensing with allometric relationships derived from forest inventory databases have led to spatially continuous estimates of stem, branch, root and foliage biomass in northern boreal and temperate forests. However, a separation of stem biomass into sapwood and heartwood mass has remained unsolved, despite their important differences in biogeochemical function, for instance concerning their contribution to tree respiratory costs. Although relationships between sapwood cross-sectional area and supported leaf area are well established, less is known about relations between sapwood or heartwood mass and other traits (e.g. stem mass), since these biomass compartments are more difficult to measure in practice. Here we investigate the variability in sapwood and heartwood proportions and determining environmental factors. For this task we explore an available biomass and allometry database (BAAD) and study relative sapwood and heartwood area, volume, mass and density in dependence of tree species, age and climate. First, a theoretical framework on how to estimate sap- and heartwood mass from stem mass is developed. Subsequently, the underlying assumptions and relationships are explored with the help of the BAAD. The established relationships can be used to derive spatially continuous sapwood and heartwood mass estimates by applying them to remote sensing based stem volume products. This would be a fundamental step forward to a data-driven estimate of autotrophic respiration.

  3. Operational Reach: Is Current Army Doctrine Adequate?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Heintzelman, Scott

    2003-01-01

    The term operational reach, an element of operational design, is new to U.S. Army doctrine. Operational reach is not found in the previous edition of the Army's basic operational doctrine, Field Manual...

  4. Stream Habitat Reach Summary - NCWAP [ds158

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The Stream Habitat - NCWAP - Reach Summary [ds158] shapefile contains in-stream habitat survey data summarized to the stream reach level. It is a derivative of the...

  5. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-06-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

  6. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  7. Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

    We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

  8. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  9. REACH: impact on the US cosmetics industry?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Anne; Polla, Barbara; Polla, Ada

    2009-03-01

    The Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and restriction of Chemicals (REACH) is a recent European regulation on chemical substances meant to protect human health and the environment. REACH imposes the "precautionary principle" where additional data and definitive action are required when uncertainty is identified. The cosmetics industry is only partially concerned by REACH: while the stages of registration and evaluation apply to cosmetics, those of authorization and restriction most likely will not, as cosmetic ingredients are already subject to regulation by various agencies and directives. REACH has potential benefits to the industry including the possibility of reassuring consumers and improving their image of chemicals and cosmetics. However, REACH also has potential disadvantages, mainly with regard to impeding innovation. The American cosmetics industry will be affected by REACH, because all US manufacturers who export substances to Europe will have to fully comply with REACH.

  10. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  11. Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2017-05-01

    We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

  12. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  13. Ciguatera fish poisoning. A southern California epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, E D; Tanner, P; Turchen, S G; Tunget, C L; Manoguerra, A; Clark, R F

    1995-01-01

    Ciguatera fish poisoning results from the bioconcentration of a variety of toxins produced by marine dinoflagellates. Signs and symptoms vary widely, but it usually presents as gastrointestinal and neurologic complaints beginning shortly after the ingestion of fish containing the toxins. Symptoms may persist for months and sometimes even years. Although cases have been reported throughout the United States, epidemics are most common along tropical and subtropical coasts and usually involve the ingestion of large carnivorous fish. We review the literature and report the first epidemic of 25 cases of ciguatera fish poisoning presenting to area hospitals in Southern California that were successfully tracked by the Department of Health Services and isolated to fish caught off the coast of Baja California, Mexico. Images Figure 1. PMID:7667980

  14. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  15. Eight challenges for network epidemic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pellis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

  16. Computational algebraic geometry of epidemic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Vega, Martín.

    2014-06-01

    Computational Algebraic Geometry is applied to the analysis of various epidemic models for Schistosomiasis and Dengue, both, for the case without control measures and for the case where control measures are applied. The models were analyzed using the mathematical software Maple. Explicitly the analysis is performed using Groebner basis, Hilbert dimension and Hilbert polynomials. These computational tools are included automatically in Maple. Each of these models is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, and for each model the basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated. The effects of the control measures are observed by the changes in the algebraic structure of R0, the changes in Groebner basis, the changes in Hilbert dimension, and the changes in Hilbert polynomials. It is hoped that the results obtained in this paper become of importance for designing control measures against the epidemic diseases described. For future researches it is proposed the use of algebraic epidemiology to analyze models for airborne and waterborne diseases.

  17. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petter Holme

    Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  18. Emergence of epidemics in rapidly varying networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohar, Vivek; Sinha, Sudeshna

    2013-01-01

    We describe a simple model mimicking disease spreading on a network with dynamically varying connections, and investigate the dynamical consequences of switching links in the network. Our central observation is that the disease cycles get more synchronized, indicating the onset of epidemics, as the underlying network changes more rapidly. This behavior is found for periodically switched links, as well as links that switch randomly in time. We find that the influence of changing links is more pronounced in networks where the nodes have lower degree, and the disease cycle has a longer infective stage. Further, when the switching of links is periodic we observe finer dynamical features, such as beating patterns in the emergent oscillations and resonant enhancement of synchronization, arising from the interplay between the time-scales of the connectivity changes and that of the epidemic outbreaks

  19. [The depression epidemic does not exist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2009-01-01

    There has been much discussion in the media about the question of the existence of a depression epidemic. This leads on to the questions of whether the social and economic approaches are adequate, and what the alternatives are. The concept of the disease 'depression' can be defined using a medical model, or from a patient's or a societal perspective. From a medical perspective, indeed a depression epidemic has ensued from the increased prosperity and the associated decompression of the mortality rate. Society responded with preventative measures and policies aimed at improving functioning in the workplace. However, patients with a major depressive disorder (MDD) who are eligible for treatment are often not motivated to take it up, or are undertreated. Research is necessary in order to explore what patients think about the identification and treatment of depression. The confusion regarding the concept of depression found in the media, needs to be cleared.

  20. New Approaches to the Methamphetamine Epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Zusman, Mara B.

    2004-01-01

    Methamphetamine abuse has become an epidemic in the United States. As methamphetamine becomes increasingly available, more and more people are trying – and becoming addicted to – this potent drug. But although methamphetamine is made using over-the-counter (OTC) drugs containing pseudoephedrine, shifting OTC drugs containing pseudoephedrine to prescription status is not the solution to the methamphetamine crisis. Rather, society must adopt a comprehensive...

  1. The 1982 epidemic--roller skating injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunker, T. D.

    1983-01-01

    A series of 100 roller skating injuries is presented. Roller skating injuries have been occurring at a higher rate than the previously reported skateboarding epidemic of 1977. The severity of injury has been lower, 32% fractures and dislocations occurring whilst roller skating, compared to 60% whilst skateboarding. In particular a striking reduction is seen in ankle fractures. Fifty questionnaires detailing method of injury were analysed. Images p205-a Fig. 1 Fig. 2 PMID:6652406

  2. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  3. Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Bruno

    2016-10-01

    Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

    2018-12-01

    Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

  5. Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Shannon, Kerry L; Zelaya, Carla E; Azman, Andrew S; Lessler, Justin

    2014-02-21

    Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

  6. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  7. Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

    2016-12-01

    The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  8. [Fight against epidemics: Austrian prisoners in Troyes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzel, Géraldine

    2014-01-01

    The victories near Ulm and Elchingen, where the Napoleonic army took 60000 prisoners between 15th and 20th of October 1805, lead to the arrival at Troyes (county "Aube") of nearly 2000 Austrian soldiers to be held inside former monasteries among whose, mainly the Jacobinians casern where more than half of them stayed. At the beginning of 1806, the government sent the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Desgenettes on an inspection tour to control the state of health of the populations of places where foreign prisoners were held, which lead him through several counties of the North-eastern part of France, where he surveyed several diseases ranging from all kinds offevers up to dysentery, scabies or gangrenes. With the means of acid fumigations invented by the chemist Guyton Morveau from Dijon, the authorities took care of combating and preventing the epidemics in the caserns. As soon as October 1805, the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Pigeotte from Troyes wrote to the county governor his observations recommending a better diet, airing of the rooms and also calls to take some exercise. All these precepts showed an astonishing modernity.

  9. Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-07-07

    Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Kuperman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

  11. Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Buono

    Full Text Available Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction [Formula: see text] of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted [Formula: see text]. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction [Formula: see text] of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of [Formula: see text] the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.

  12. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  13. Epidemics in the news: Health and hygiene in the press in periods of crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida, Maria Antónia Pires

    2013-10-01

    How did scientific knowledge reach the public? Using the press and keeping in mind the population's limited access to written material, this paper establishes how the latest scientific news was divulged to unspecialised audiences. In times of sanitary crisis in Oporto, such as the cholera morbus epidemic of 1854-1856, the bubonic plague in 1899 and the 1918 influenza pandemic, newspapers were important sources to access the information and advice given to the public. A database of 6700 articles, medical reports and advertisements published in daily newspapers reveals the state of the art of medical science. It also reveals the importance given by health authorities and journalists to the publication of recent discoveries and adequate hygiene procedures to prevent the spread of the epidemics. This is a subject that contributes to the debates on the dissemination of science and on the place that Portugal occupied in the international scientific community.

  14. Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

    1994-05-01

    To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

  15. Data and methods to characterize the role of sex work and to inform sex work programs in generalized HIV epidemics: evidence to challenge assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Sharmistha; Boily, Marie-Claude; Schwartz, Sheree; Beyrer, Chris; Blanchard, James F; Moses, Stephen; Castor, Delivette; Phaswana-Mafuya, Nancy; Vickerman, Peter; Drame, Fatou; Alary, Michel; Baral, Stefan D

    2016-08-01

    In the context of generalized human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemics, there has been limited recent investment in HIV surveillance and prevention programming for key populations including female sex workers. Often implicit in the decision to limit investment in these epidemic settings are assumptions including that commercial sex is not significant to the sustained transmission of HIV, and HIV interventions designed to reach "all segments of society" will reach female sex workers and clients. Emerging empiric and model-based evidence is challenging these assumptions. This article highlights the frameworks and estimates used to characterize the role of sex work in HIV epidemics as well as the relevant empiric data landscape on sex work in generalized HIV epidemics and their strengths and limitations. Traditional approaches to estimate the contribution of sex work to HIV epidemics do not capture the potential for upstream and downstream sexual and vertical HIV transmission. Emerging approaches such as the transmission population attributable fraction from dynamic mathematical models can address this gap. To move forward, the HIV scientific community must begin by replacing assumptions about the epidemiology of generalized HIV epidemics with data and more appropriate methods of estimating the contribution of unprotected sex in the context of sex work. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Substantial proportion of global streamflow less than three months old

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasechko, Scott; Kirchner, James W.; Welker, Jeffrey M.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

    2016-02-01

    Biogeochemical cycles, contaminant transport and chemical weathering are regulated by the speed at which precipitation travels through landscapes and reaches streams. Streamflow is a mixture of young and old precipitation, but the global proportions of these young and old components are not known. Here we analyse seasonal cycles of oxygen isotope ratios in rain, snow and streamflow compiled from 254 watersheds around the world, and calculate the fraction of streamflow that is derived from precipitation that fell within the past two or three months. This young streamflow accounts for about a third of global river discharge, and comprises at least 5% of discharge in about 90% of the catchments we investigated. We conclude that, although typical catchments have mean transit times of years or even decades, they nonetheless can rapidly transmit substantial fractions of soluble contaminant inputs to streams. Young streamflow is less prevalent in steeper landscapes, which suggests they are characterized by deeper vertical infiltration. Because young streamflow is derived from less than 0.1% of global groundwater storage, we conclude that this thin veneer of aquifer storage will have a disproportionate influence on stream water quality.

  17. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKelvie William R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  19. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2012-03-23

    A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  20. Women with HIV in Indonesia: are they bridging a concentrated epidemic to the wider community?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmalia, Annisa; Wisaksana, Rudi; Meijerink, Hinta; Indrati, Agnes R; Alisjahbana, Bachti; Roeleveld, Nel; van der Ven, Andre J A M; Laga, Marie; van Crevel, Reinout

    2015-12-09

    Male injecting drug users drove the onset of the HIV epidemic in Indonesia but over time more women have been diagnosed. We examined the relative proportion of female patients in an HIV cohort and characterized their probable transmission route and reproductive profile. Prospective cohort study in a referral hospital in West Java. Interviews with standardized questionnaires, physical and laboratory examinations were done for 2622 individuals enrolled in HIV care between 2007 and 2012. The proportion of women in this cohort was compared with national estimates. The general characteristics of HIV-infected women and men as well as the sexual and reproductive health of HIV-infected women were described. The proportion of female patients enrolled in HIV care increased from 22.2 % in 2007 to 38.3 % in 2012, in line with national estimates. Women were younger than men, fewer reported a history of IDU (16.1 vs. 73.8 %, p women were in their reproductive age, had children, and were not using contraceptives at the time of enrolment. HIV-infected women in Indonesia have specific characteristics that differ them from women in the general population. Further research to elucidate the characteristics of women exposed to HIV, their access to testing and care and sexual and reproductive needs can help reduce transmission to women and children in the context of concentrated HIV epidemic in Indonesia.

  1. Patterns of arm muscle activation involved in octopus reaching movements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutfreund, Y; Flash, T; Fiorito, G; Hochner, B

    1998-08-01

    The extreme flexibility of the octopus arm allows it to perform many different movements, yet octopuses reach toward a target in a stereotyped manner using a basic invariant motor structure: a bend traveling from the base of the arm toward the tip (Gutfreund et al., 1996a). To study the neuronal control of these movements, arm muscle activation [electromyogram (EMG)] was measured together with the kinematics of reaching movements. The traveling bend is associated with a propagating wave of muscle activation, with maximal muscle activation slightly preceding the traveling bend. Tonic activation was occasionally maintained afterward. Correlation of the EMG signals with the kinematic variables (velocities and accelerations) reveals that a significant part of the kinematic variability can be explained by the level of muscle activation. Furthermore, the EMG level measured during the initial stages of movement predicts the peak velocity attained toward the end of the reaching movement. These results suggest that feed-forward motor commands play an important role in the control of movement velocity and that simple adjustment of the excitation levels at the initial stages of the movement can set the velocity profile of the whole movement. A simple model of octopus arm extension is proposed in which the driving force is set initially and is then decreased in proportion to arm diameter at the bend. The model qualitatively reproduces the typical velocity profiles of octopus reaching movements, suggesting a simple control mechanism for bend propagation in the octopus arm.

  2. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  3. REACH: Evaluation Report and Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibieta, Luke

    2016-01-01

    REACH is a targeted reading support programme designed to improve reading accuracy and comprehension in pupils with reading difficulties in Years 7 and 8. It is based on research by the Centre for Reading and Language at York and is delivered by specially trained teaching assistants (TAs). This evaluation tested two REACH interventions, one based…

  4. Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  5. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-20

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  6. Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiao-Pu

    2007-01-01

    Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

  7. The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet L Mills

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city; population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods. Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

  8. Epidemics on adaptive networks with geometric constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Schwartz, Ira

    2008-03-01

    When a population is faced with an epidemic outbreak, individuals may modify their social behavior to avoid exposure to the disease. Recent work has considered models in which the contact network is rewired dynamically so that susceptibles avoid contact with infectives. We consider extensions in which the rewiring is subject to constraints that preserve key properties of the social network structure. Constraining to a fixed degree distribution destroys previously observed bistable behavior. The most effective rewiring strategy is found to depend on the spreading rate.

  9. Generalized epidemic process on modular networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Kihong; Baek, Yongjoo; Kim, Daniel; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2014-05-01

    Social reinforcement and modular structure are two salient features observed in the spreading of behavior through social contacts. In order to investigate the interplay between these two features, we study the generalized epidemic process on modular networks with equal-sized finite communities and adjustable modularity. Using the analytical approach originally applied to clique-based random networks, we show that the system exhibits a bond-percolation type continuous phase transition for weak social reinforcement, whereas a discontinuous phase transition occurs for sufficiently strong social reinforcement. Our findings are numerically verified using the finite-size scaling analysis and the crossings of the bimodality coefficient.

  10. CHEMICAL VERSUS SERUM TREATMENT OF EPIDEMIC MENINGITIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flexner, S; Amoss, H L

    1916-05-01

    Claims of efficiency have been made at two widely separated periods for the chemical treatment of epidemic meningitis, in the first instance for lysol and in the second for protargol. The use of lysol was long since abandoned; the recommendation for protargol is based on a single series of cases, small in number. Because of the variable severity of epidemics of meningitis, small reliance can be placed on results of treatment limited in extent to small numbers of cases and to one locality. A more uniform and accurate measure of the value of a method of treatment is provided by animals infected experimentally with pathogenic cultures of meningococci. Young guinea pigs respond in a definite manner to intraperitoneal inoculation of virulent meningococci. Neither protargol nor lysol proved to have any curative action on the experimental infection thus produced in these animals. Monkeys respond in a characteristic manner to the inoculation of virulent cultures into the subarachnoid space. Protargol displayed no curative action on the experimental infection thus produced in these animals. On the contrary, both lysol and protargol exert antileukotactic and antiphagocytic effects, and are also potent protoplasmic poisons, and the leukocytes with which they come in contact are injured and made to degenerate. According to the extent to which these harmful properties are exerted, the chemicals promote the advance rather than restrain the progress of meningococcic infection. Recovery from meningococcic infection in man and animals is accomplished chiefly through the process of phagocytosis. The specific antiserum acts curatively by increasing the emigration of leukocytes, by promoting phagocytosis directly, and by agglutinating the meningococci, and also by neutralizing endotoxin. Any means which interfere with and reduce these essential processes retard or prevent recovery. Both lysol and protargol interfere with and diminish the emigration of leukocytes and the phagocytosis

  11. Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champredon, David; Li, Michael; Bolker, Benjamin M; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2018-03-01

    We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

  13. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  14. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

  15. Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

    2017-01-01

    Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

  16. Religious and cultural traits in HIV/AIDS epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velayati, Ali-Akbar; Bakayev, Valerii; Bahadori, Moslem; Tabatabaei, Seyed-Javad; Alaei, Arash; Farahbood, Amir; Masjedi, Mohammad-Reza

    2007-10-01

    The pandemic of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa and the rise of epidemics in Asia to the previously unforeseen level are likely to have global social, economic, and political impacts. In this emergency, it is vital to reappraise the weight of powerful religious and cultural factors in spreading the disease. The role of Islam in shaping values, norms, and public policies in North African states is to be appreciated for the lowest HIV prevalence in their populations. Yet, the place of religion in prevention of the disease diffusion is not fully understood nor worldwide acknowledged by the primary decision makers. Another topic, which has received little attention to date, despite the abundance of literature concerning the unfortunate Africa's anti-AIDS campaign, is an issue of colonial past. To better comprehend the share of both traits in diverse spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, we studied the correlation between Muslim and Christian proportions in the state's population and HIV rate. By this method, Muslim percentage came out as a potential predictor of HIV prevalence in a given state. In another approach, most subcontinental countries were clustered by colocalization and similarity in their leading religion, colonial past, and HIV seroprevalence starting from barely noticeable (0.6 - 1.2%, for Mauritania, Senegal, Somalia, and Niger) and low levels (1.9 - 4.8%, for Mali, Eritrea, Djibouti, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Burkina-Faso, and Chad) for Muslim populated past possessions of France and Italy, in the northern part of the subcontinent. Former territories of France, Belgium, Portugal, and the UK formed two other groups of the countries nearing the equator with Catholic prevailing (Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Gabon, and Burundi) or mixed populations comprising Christian, Muslim, and indigenous believers (Benin, Ghana, Uganda, Togo, Angola, Nigeria, Liberia, Kenya, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, and Sierra-Leone), which covered the HIV

  17. Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

    2014-11-13

    Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

  18. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

  19. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  20. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  1. The database for reaching experiments and models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Walker

    Full Text Available Reaching is one of the central experimental paradigms in the field of motor control, and many computational models of reaching have been published. While most of these models try to explain subject data (such as movement kinematics, reaching performance, forces, etc. from only a single experiment, distinct experiments often share experimental conditions and record similar kinematics. This suggests that reaching models could be applied to (and falsified by multiple experiments. However, using multiple datasets is difficult because experimental data formats vary widely. Standardizing data formats promises to enable scientists to test model predictions against many experiments and to compare experimental results across labs. Here we report on the development of a new resource available to scientists: a database of reaching called the Database for Reaching Experiments And Models (DREAM. DREAM collects both experimental datasets and models and facilitates their comparison by standardizing formats. The DREAM project promises to be useful for experimentalists who want to understand how their data relates to models, for modelers who want to test their theories, and for educators who want to help students better understand reaching experiments, models, and data analysis.

  2. Going up or coming down? The changing phases of the lung cancer epidemic from 1967 to 1999 in the 15 European Union countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, F; Tyczynski, J E; Parkin, D M

    2004-01-01

    Lung cancer, the most common cause of cancer death in the European Union (EU), continues to have an enormous impact on the health experience of the men and women living in the constituent countries. Information on the course of the lung cancer epidemic is essential in order to formulate an effective cancer control policy. This paper examines recent trends in lung cancer mortality rates in men and women in each of the 15 countries, comparing cross-sectional rates of death in younger (aged 30-64 years) and older populations (aged 65 years or over), and the age, period of death, and birth cohort influences in the younger age group. The latter analysis establishes the importance of year of birth, related to modifications in the tobacco habit among recently born generations. The stage of evolution of the lung cancer epidemic varies markedly by sex and country in terms of the direction, magnitude, and phase of development of national trends. In males, there is some consistency in the direction of the trends between EU countries, declines are apparent in most countries, at least in younger men, with rates in older men either reaching a plateau, or also falling. In younger persons, a decreasing risk of lung cancer death reflects changes in successive birth cohorts, due to modifications in the smoking habit from generation to generation, although these developments are in very different phases across countries. Portugal is the exception to the male trends; there are increases in mortality in both age groups, with little sign of a slowing down by birth cohort. In women, there are unambiguous upsurges in rates seen in younger and older women in almost all EU countries in recent decades, and little sign that the epidemic has or will soon reach a peak. The exceptions are the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland, where lung cancer death rates are now declining in younger women and stabilising in older women, reflecting a declining risk in women born since about 1950. It is too early

  3. Measles epidemic in Switzerland and other parts of Europe

    CERN Multimedia

    TIS Commission

    2008-01-01

    There has been a measles epidemic in Switzerland since November 2006. By April 2008 the number of cases had reached almost 2500, with over 1300 since the beginning of the year alone. All cantons are affected but to varying degrees, the largest number of cases occurring in the north and east of the country. In all cases, the low vaccination coverage is responsible for the spread of this highly contagious disease. The contagious period starts 4 days before the rash appears and lasts until 4 days afterwards. In the event of infection, children must be kept away from school and measures must be taken to protect those who come into contact with them, which may include vaccination if the infection is less than 72 hours old. The Swiss and international health authorities recommend the following measures to prevent the spread of the disease: those who have already contracted the disease, received 2 doses of the vaccine (often in the form of the combined MMR - measles, mumps, rubella...

  4. Epidemic spreading on heterogeneous networks with identical infectivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Rui; Wang, Bing-Hong; Ren, Jie; Bai, Wen-Jie; Shi, Zhi-Wen; Wang, Wen-Xu; Zhou, Tao

    2007-01-01

    In this Letter, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, A, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on scale-free networks, the density of the recovered individuals in the present model shows a threshold behavior. We obtain the analytical results using the mean-field theory and find that the threshold value equals 1/A, indicating that the threshold value is independent of the topology of the underlying network. The simulations agree well with the analytic results. Furthermore, we study the time behavior of the epidemic propagation and find a hierarchical dynamics with three plateaus. Once the highly connected hubs are reached, the infection pervades almost the whole network in a progressive cascade across smaller degree classes. Then, after the previously infected hubs are recovered, the disease can only propagate to the class of smallest degree till the infected individuals are all recovered. The present results could be of practical importance in the setup of dynamic control strategies

  5. Phenotypic and Genotypic Comparison of Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from Individuals with Cystic Fibrosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Duong

    Full Text Available Epidemic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa have been found worldwide among the cystic fibrosis (CF patient population. Using pulse-field gel electrophoresis, the Prairie Epidemic Strain (PES has recently been found in one-third of patients attending the Calgary Adult CF Clinic in Canada. Using multi-locus sequence typing, PES isolates from unrelated patients were found to consistently have ST192. Though most patients acquired PES prior to enrolling in the clinic, some patients were observed to experience strain replacement upon transitioning to the clinic whereby local non-epidemic P. aeruginosa isolates were displaced by PES. Here we genotypically and phenotypically compared PES to other P. aeruginosa epidemic strains (OES found around the world as well as local non-epidemic CF P. aeruginosa isolates in order to characterize PES. Since some epidemic strains are associated with worse clinical outcomes, we assessed the pathogenic potential of PES to determine if these isolates are virulent, shared properties with OES, and if its phenotypic properties may offer a competitive advantage in displacing local non-epidemic isolates during strain replacement. As such, we conducted a comparative analysis using fourteen phenotypic traits, including virulence factor production, biofilm formation, planktonic growth, mucoidy, and antibiotic susceptibility to characterize PES, OES, and local non-epidemic isolates. We observed that PES and OES could be differentiated from local non-epidemic isolates based on biofilm growth with PES isolates being more mucoid. Pairwise comparisons indicated that PES produced significantly higher levels of proteases and formed better biofilms than OES but were more susceptible to antibiotic treatment. Amongst five patients experiencing strain replacement, we found that super-infecting PES produced lower levels of proteases and elastases but were more resistant to antibiotics compared to the displaced non-epidemic isolates. This

  6. The opioid overdose epidemic: opportunities for pharmacists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu LT

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Li-Tzy Wu,1–4 Udi E Ghitza,5 Anne L Burns,6 Paolo Mannelli,1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, 2Department of Medicine, 3Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, 4Center for Child and Family Policy, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, 5Center for Clinical Trials Network, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Bethesda, MD, 6American Pharmacists Association, Washington, DC, USA The USA is experiencing an opioid overdose epidemic. It has been driven largely by prescription opioids and intensified by a surge of illicit opioids (e.g., heroin and fentanyl.1,2 Drug-involved overdose, mainly opioids (e.g., prescription opioids and heroin, is a leading cause of accidental death in the USA. The opioid overdose epidemic has been escalating consistently for over a decade.2 Every day, an estimated 91 Americans die from opioid-related overdose.3 Opioid overdose appears to have disproportionally affected men, adults aged 25–64 years, and non-Hispanic whites.2

  7. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2011-01-01

    Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection) while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment). For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  8. [The cholera epidemic in Latin America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsvik, O

    1992-05-30

    An outbreak of cholera started in Peru in January 1991 and spread through most Latin American countries within a year. This was the first known epidemic of cholera in America for more than a century. In 1991, 321,334 persons were reported to have cholera in Peru, 119,063 were hospitalized, and 2,906 died. Other countries like Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, Chile, El Salvador, Venezuela and Honduras were also affected, but these countries combined accounted for only 20% of the cases registered in Peru. In April 1992, all Latin American countries except Uruguay, Paraguay and French Guyana have reported cholera. The mortality rate for the epidemic in Latin America was only 1%, mainly owing to good oral rehydration treatment provided by Local health services and the Pan American Health Organization. The causative organism was Vibrio cholerae, serogroup O1, serotype Inaba (and Ogawa) of the El Tor biotype. Genetic characterization shows this strain to be unique, and the designation is reserved for the Latin American strain, distinguishing it from the other El Tor isolates from the 7th pandemic.

  9. Devastating epidemics in recent ages Greek populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsiou, Antonia; Michalaki, Vasiliki; Anagnostopoulou, Helen N

    2017-12-01

    In the recent Greek ages the most devastating epidemics were plague, smallpox, leprosy and cholera. In 1816 plague struck the Ionian and Aegean Islands, mainland Greece, Constantinople and Smyrna. The Venetians ruling the Ionian Islands effectively combated plague in contrast to the Ottomans ruling all other regions. In 1922, plague appeared in Patras refugees who were expelled by the Turks from Smyrna and Asia Minor. Inoculation against smallpox was first performed in Thessaly by the Greek women, and the Greek doctors Emmanouel Timonis (1713, Oxford) and Jakovos Pylarinos (1715, Venice) made relevant scientific publications. The first leper colony opened in Chios Island. In Crete, Spinalonga was transformed into a leper island, which following the Independence War against Turkish occupation and the unification of Crete with Greece in 1913, was classified as an International Leper Hospital. Cholera struck Greece in 1853-1854 brought by the French troops during the Crimean War, and again during the Balkan Wars (1912-13) when the Bulgarian troops brought cholera to northern Greece. Due to successive wars, medical assistance was not always available, so desperate people turned many times to religion through processions in honor of local saints, for their salvation in epidemics.

  10. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martial L Ndeffo Mbah

    Full Text Available Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment. For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  11. America's Opioid Epidemic: Supply and Demand Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J; Schumacher, Mark A

    2017-11-01

    America is in the midst of an opioid epidemic characterized by aggressive prescribing practices, highly prevalent opioid misuse, and rising rates of prescription and illicit opioid overdose-related deaths. Medical and lay public sentiment have become more cautious with respect to prescription opioid use in the past few years, but a comprehensive strategy to reduce our reliance on prescription opioids is lacking. Addressing this epidemic through reductions in unnecessary access to these drugs while implementing measures to reduce demand will be important components of any comprehensive solution. Key supply-side measures include avoiding overprescribing, reducing diversion, and discouraging misuse through changes in drug formulations. Important demand-side measures center around educating patients and clinicians regarding the pitfalls of opioid overuse and methods to avoid unnecessary exposure to these drugs. Anesthesiologists, by virtue of their expertise in the use of these drugs and their position in guiding opioid use around the time of surgery, have important roles to play in reducing patient exposure to opioids and providing education about appropriate use. Aside from the many immediate steps that can be taken, clinical and basic research directed at understanding the interaction between pain and opioid misuse is critical to identifying the optimal use of these powerful pain relievers in clinical practice.

  12. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katayoun Farrahi

    Full Text Available Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  13. Modelling the dynamics of nonendemic epidemics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramani, A.; Grammaticos, B.; Satsuma, J.

    2009-01-01

    We present two models for an epidemic where the individuals are infective over a fixed period of time and which never becomes endemic i.e., no infective individuals remain after the epidemic has run its course. The first model is based on a delay-difference scheme. We show that, as a function of the delay (which corresponds to the period of infectiveness) the percentage of non-infected population varies over a wide range. We present also a variant of our model where the recovery rate follows a Poisson law and obtain a discrete version of the SIR model. We estimate the percentage of non-infected population in the two models, show that they lead to almost the same values and present an explanation of this fact. The second model is based on the assumption that the infection is spread by carriers. Under the hypothesis that the carriers are relatively long-lived, and that the number of the infected ones is a relatively small fraction of the total population of potential carriers, we show that the model reduces to the same version of the discrete SIR obtained by our first model.

  14. Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

    2016-04-01

    We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

  15. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrahi, Katayoun; Emonet, Rémi; Cebrian, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  16. Colliding Epidemics and the Rise of Cryptococcosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina C. Chang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Discovered more than 100 years ago as a human pathogen, the Cryptococcus neoformans–Cryptococcus gattii (C. neoformans–C. gattii complex has seen a large global resurgence in its association with clinical disease in the last 30 years. First isolated in fermenting peach juice, and identified as a human pathogen in 1894 in a patient with bone lesions, this environmental pathogen has now found niches in soil, trees, birds, and domestic pets. Cryptococcosis is well recognized as an opportunistic infection and was first noted to be associated with reticuloendothelial cancers in the 1950s. Since then, advances in transplant immunology, medical science and surgical techniques have led to increasing numbers of solid organ transplantations (SOT and hematological stem cell transplantations being performed, and the use of biological immunotherapeutics in increasingly high-risk and older individuals, have contributed to the further rise in cryptococcosis. Globally, however, the major driver for revivification of cryptococcosis is undoubtedly the HIV epidemic, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa where access to care and antiretroviral therapy remains limited and advanced immunodeficiency, poverty and malnutrition remains the norm. As a zoonotic disease, environmental outbreaks of both human and animal cryptococcosis have been reported, possibly driven by climate change. This is best exemplified by the resurgence of C. gattii infection in Vancouver Island, Canada, and the Pacific Northwest of the United States since 1999. Here we describe how the colliding epidemics of HIV, transplantation and immunologics, climate change and migration have contributed to the rise of cryptococcosis.

  17. Analysis of Impact of Geographical Environment and Socio-economic Factors on the Spatial Distribution of Kaohsiung Dengue Fever Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Wei-Yin; Wen, Tzai-Hung; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2013-04-01

    Taiwan is located in subtropical and tropical regions with high temperature and high humidity in the summer. This kind of climatic condition is the hotbed for the propagation and spread of the dengue vector mosquito. Kaohsiung City has been the worst dengue fever epidemic city in Taiwan. During the study period, from January 1998 to December 2011, Taiwan CDC recorded 7071 locally dengue epidemic cases in Kaohsiung City, and the number of imported case is 118. Our research uses Quantile Regression, a spatial infection disease distribution, to analyze the correlation between dengue epidemic and geographic environmental factors and human society factors in Kaohsiung. According to our experiment statistics, agriculture and natural forest have a positive relation to dengue fever(5.5~34.39 and 3.91~15.52). The epidemic will rise when the ratio for agriculture and natural forest increases. Residential ratio has a negative relation for quantile 0.1 to 0.4(-0.005~-0.78), and a positive relation for quantile 0.5 to0.9(0.01~18.0) . The mean income is also a significant factor in social economy field, and it has a negative relation to dengue fever(-0.01~-0.04). Conclusion from our research is that the main factor affecting the degree of dengue fever in predilection area is the residential proportion and the ratio of agriculture and natural forest plays an important role affecting the degree of dengue fever in non predilection area. Moreover, the serious epidemic area located by regression model is the same as the actual condition in Kaohsiung. This model can be used to predict the serious epidemic area of dengue fever and provide some references for the Health Agencies

  18. Enhancing US Operational Reach in Southeast Asia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hitchcock, David

    2003-01-01

    .... While this treat continues to exist, the US Pacific Command (PACOM) must also pursue a neat term methodology to expand its operational reach and ability to respond to contingencies throughout the East Asian littoral, especially within Southeast Asia...

  19. Reaching the Overlooked Student in Physical Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esslinger, Keri; Esslinger, Travis; Bagshaw, Jarad

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the use of live action role-playing, or "LARPing," as a non-traditional activity that has the potential to reach students who are not interested in traditional physical education.

  20. Compact muon solenoid magnet reaches full field

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    Scientist of the U.S. Department of Energy in Fermilab and collaborators of the US/CMS project announced that the world's largest superconducting solenoid magnet has reached full field in tests at CERN. (1 apge)

  1. An individual-based approach to SIR epidemics in contact networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youssef, Mina; Scoglio, Caterina

    2011-08-21

    Many approaches have recently been proposed to model the spread of epidemics on networks. For instance, the Susceptible/Infected/Recovered (SIR) compartmental model has successfully been applied to different types of diseases that spread out among humans and animals. When this model is applied on a contact network, the centrality characteristics of the network plays an important role in the spreading process. However, current approaches only consider an aggregate representation of the network structure, which can result in inaccurate analysis. In this paper, we propose a new individual-based SIR approach, which considers the whole description of the network structure. The individual-based approach is built on a continuous time Markov chain, and it is capable of evaluating the state probability for every individual in the network. Through mathematical analysis, we rigorously confirm the existence of an epidemic threshold below which an epidemic does not propagate in the network. We also show that the epidemic threshold is inversely proportional to the maximum eigenvalue of the network. Additionally, we study the role of the whole spectrum of the network, and determine the relationship between the maximum number of infected individuals and the set of eigenvalues and eigenvectors. To validate our approach, we analytically study the deviation with respect to the continuous time Markov chain model, and we show that the new approach is accurate for a large range of infection strength. Furthermore, we compare the new approach with the well-known heterogeneous mean field approach in the literature. Ultimately, we support our theoretical results through extensive numerical evaluations and Monte Carlo simulations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. PROPORTIONS AND HUMAN SCALE IN DAMASCENE COURTYARD HOUSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Salim Ferwati

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Interior designers, architects, landscape architects, and even urban designers, agree that environment, as a form of non-verbal communication means, has a symbolic dimension to it. As for its aesthetic dimension, it seems that beauty is related to a certain proportion, partially and as a whole. Suitable proportion leaves a good impression upon the beholders, especially when it matches human proportion. That in fact was the underlining belief of LeCorbusier, according to which he developed his Modular concept. The study searches for a modular, or proportion, system that governs the design of Damascene traditional house. By geometrical and mathematical examinations of 28 traditional houses, it was found that a certain proportional relationship existed; however, these proportional relationships were not fixed ones. The study relied on analyzing the Iwan elevation as well as the inner courtyard proportion in relation to the building area. Charts, diagrams and tables were produced to summarize the results.

  3. HIV-1 epidemic in Warao Amerindians from Venezuela: spatial phylodynamics and epidemiological patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalba, Julian A; Bello, Gonzalo; Maes, Mailis; Sulbaran, Yoneira F; Garzaro, Domingo; Loureiro, Carmen L; Rangel, Hector R; de Waard, Jacobus H; Pujol, Flor H

    2013-07-17

    We previously reported HIV-1 infection in Warao Amerindians from Venezuela. The aim of this study was to evaluate the extent and the dynamic of HIV-1 dissemination in eight Warao communities. HIV-1 infection was evaluated in 576 Warao Amerindians from the Orinoco Delta. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were analyzed to reconstruct the spatiotemporal and demographic dynamics of the epidemic. HIV-1 antibodies were present in 9.55% of Warao Amerindians, ranging from 0 to 22%. A significantly higher prevalence was found in men (15.6%) compared with women (2.6%), reaching up to 35% in men from one community. All but one isolates were classified as subtype B. Warao's HIV-1 subtype-B epidemic resulted from a single viral introduction at around the early 2000s. After an initial phase of slow growth, the subtype B started to spread at a fast rate (0.8/year) following two major routes of migration within the communities. A dramatic high prevalence was documented in almost all the communities of Warao Amerindians from the Orinoco Delta tested for HIV-1 infection. This epidemic resulted from the dissemination of a single HIV-1 subtype B founder strain introduced about 10 years ago and its size is probably doubling every year, creating a situation that can be devastating for this vulnerable Amerindian group.

  4. The origin and emergence of an HIV-1 epidemic:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne; Audelin, Anne M.; Helleberg, Marie

    2014-01-01

    To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic.......To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic....

  5. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  6. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

  7. [The cholera epidemic of 1833 and mortality in Mexico City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, M D

    1992-01-01

    The author examines the impact of the 1833 cholera epidemic in Mexico City, Mexico, on social, economic, and political aspects of life in that city. She finds that some five percent of the population died during the epidemic, and enumerates them by age and sex.

  8. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  9. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

  10. On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

  11. The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

    2018-01-01

    Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

  12. Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

    2015-12-01

    Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

  13. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.-C. Cao (Wu-Chun); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large

  14. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  15. Disease load at conception predicts survival in later epidemics in a historical French-Canadian cohort, suggesting functional trans-generational effects in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Willführ

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Functional trans-generational and parental effects are potentially important determinants of health in several mammals. For humans, the existing evidence is weak. We investigate whether disease exposure triggers functional trans-generational response effects among humans by analyzing siblings who were conceived under different disease loads, and comparing their mortality in later epidemics. Under functional trans-generational response mechanisms, we expect that those who were conceived under high pathogenic stress load will have relatively low mortality during a later epidemic. METHODS: We use data from the Registre de la Population du Québec Ancien, which covers the historical population living in St. Lawrence Valley, Québec, Canada. Children born in 1705-1724 were grouped according to their exposure during conception to the measles 1714-15 epidemic. The 1714-15 epidemic was followed by two mortality crises in 1729-1734. The cause of the first crises in 1729 is not exactly known. The second crisis in 1732 was caused by a smallpox epidemic. Using proportional hazard Cox regression models with multivariate adjustment and with fixed-effects approach that compare siblings, we analyze whether mortality in 1729-1734 is affected by exposure to the 1714-15 epidemic. RESULTS: Children who were conceived during the peak of the measles epidemic of 1714-15 exhibited significantly lower mortality during the 1729-1734 crisis than those who were born before the 1714-15 epidemic (mortality hazard ratio 0.106, p<.05 in multivariate adjusted models; 0.142 p<.1 in sibling comparison models. CONCLUSIONS: The results are consistent with a trans-generational mechanism that functionally responds to pathogen stress and suggest that early disease exposure may be protective later in life. Alternative explanations for the mortality patterns are discussed and shown to be problematic.

  16. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-08

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  17. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-01

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  18. Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne T A Enanoria

    Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

  19. Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

    2018-04-01

    Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

  20. The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eames, K T D

    2014-09-01

    The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

  1. Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

    2017-10-01

    The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

  2. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

    2016-01-01

    The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

  3. Epidemics and dimensionality in hierarchical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Da-Fang; Hui, P. M.; Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Bo

    2005-07-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed hierarchical network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveal that for H>1, global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily of the individuals forming a social circle. For H=1, a transition from global to local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses).

  4. Social networks and spreading of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

    2004-05-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

  5. Epidemic Dynamics in Open Quantum Spin Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Espigares, Carlos; Marcuzzi, Matteo; Gutiérrez, Ricardo; Lesanovsky, Igor

    2017-10-01

    We explore the nonequilibrium evolution and stationary states of an open many-body system that displays epidemic spreading dynamics in a classical and a quantum regime. Our study is motivated by recent experiments conducted in strongly interacting gases of highly excited Rydberg atoms where the facilitated excitation of Rydberg states competes with radiative decay. These systems approximately implement open quantum versions of models for population dynamics or disease spreading where species can be in a healthy, infected or immune state. We show that in a two-dimensional lattice, depending on the dominance of either classical or quantum effects, the system may display a different kind of nonequilibrium phase transition. We moreover discuss the observability of our findings in laser driven Rydberg gases with particular focus on the role of long-range interactions.

  6. Genealogical evidence for epidemics of selfish genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingvarsson, Par K; Taylor, Douglas R

    2002-08-20

    Some genetic elements spread infectiously in populations by increasing their rate of genetic transmission at the expense of other genes in the genome. These so-called selfish genetic elements comprise a substantial portion of eukaryotic genomes and have long been viewed as a potent evolutionary force. Despite this view, little is known about the evolutionary history of selfish genetic elements in natural populations, or their genetic effects on other portions of the genome. Here we use nuclear and chloroplast gene genealogies in two species of Silene to show the historical pattern of selection on a well known selfish genetic element, cytoplasmic male sterility. We provide evidence that evolution of cytoplasmic male sterility has been characterized by frequent turnovers of mutations in natural populations, thus supporting an epidemic model for the evolution of selfish genes, where new mutations repeatedly arise and rapidly sweep through populations.

  7. Open data mining for Taiwan's dengue epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, ChienHsing; Kao, Shu-Chen; Shih, Chia-Hung; Kan, Meng-Hsuan

    2018-07-01

    By using a quantitative approach, this study examines the applicability of data mining technique to discover knowledge from open data related to Taiwan's dengue epidemic. We compare results when Google trend data are included or excluded. Data sources are government open data, climate data, and Google trend data. Research findings from analysis of 70,914 cases are obtained. Location and time (month) in open data show the highest classification power followed by climate variables (temperature and humidity), whereas gender and age show the lowest values. Both prediction accuracy and simplicity decrease when Google trends are considered (respectively 0.94 and 0.37, compared to 0.96 and 0.46). The article demonstrates the value of open data mining in the context of public health care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Chernobyl: Symptom of a worrying psychological epidemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pretre, S.

    1991-01-01

    The Chernobyl psychological epidemic was already latent well prior to 1986 fully broke out after the accident, and continues to spread. It must be halted. But how can we counter a belief which has taken on the appearance of reality. It is the unknown, linked to alarming symbols, which sustains fear. To get beyond this state, radioactivity, ionizing radiation and nuclear energy have to become as ordinary as air travel and electronic calculators. In a climate of confidence and openness, it should be possible to successfully communicate several solid scientific reference points by first targeting teachers, doctors, and journalists. Thirty years ago, nuclear energy was presented as a universal panacea (clean, safe, and renewable). Now things have swung to the other extreme, and it is presented as diabolical. We have shifted from a symbolically white level to a symbolically black level, and both are misleading. It is high time to rejoin the world of facts, a world full of shades of gray

  9. A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s disease-free absorbing set for the stochastic epidemic model, which implies that disease dies out with probability one; while if R0s > 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.

  10. Fractional virus epidemic model on financial networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balci Mehmet Ali

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we present an epidemic model that characterizes the behavior of a financial network of globally operating stock markets. Since the long time series have a global memory effect, we represent our model by using the fractional calculus. This model operates on a network, where vertices are the stock markets and edges are constructed by the correlation distances. Thereafter, we find an analytical solution to commensurate system and use the well-known differential transform method to obtain the solution of incommensurate system of fractional differential equations. Our findings are confirmed and complemented by the data set of the relevant stock markets between 2006 and 2016. Rather than the hypothetical values, we use the Hurst Exponent of each time series to approximate the fraction size and graph theoretical concepts to obtain the variables.

  11. Do working environment interventions reach shift workers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Garde, Anne Helene; Clausen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Shift workers are exposed to more physical and psychosocial stressors in the working environment as compared to day workers. Despite the need for targeted prevention, it is likely that workplace interventions less frequently reach shift workers. The aim was therefore to investigate whether the reach of workplace interventions varied between shift workers and day workers and whether such differences could be explained by the quality of leadership exhibited at different times of the day. We used questionnaire data from 5361 female care workers in the Danish eldercare sector. The questions concerned usual working hours, quality of leadership, and self-reported implementation of workplace activities aimed at stress reduction, reorganization of the working hours, and participation in improvements of working procedures or qualifications. Compared with day workers, shift workers were less likely to be reached by workplace interventions. For example, night workers less frequently reported that they had got more flexibility (OR 0.5; 95 % CI 0.3-0.7) or that they had participated in improvements of the working procedures (OR 0.6; 95 % CI 0.5-0.8). Quality of leadership to some extent explained the lack of reach of interventions especially among fixed evening workers. In the light of the evidence of shift workers' stressful working conditions, we suggest that future studies focus on the generalizability of results of the present study and on how to reach this group and meet their needs when designing and implementing workplace interventions.

  12. Pressure control valve using proportional electro-magnetic solenoid actuator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, So Nam; Ham, Young Bog; Park, Pyoung Won

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an experimental characteristics of electro-hydraulic proportional pressure control valve. In this study, poppet and valve body which are assembled into the proportional solenoid were designed and manufactured. The constant force characteristics of proportional solenoid actuator in the control region should be independent of the plunger position in order to be used to control the valve position in the fluid flow control system. The stroke-force characteristics of the proportional solenoid actuator is determined by the shape (or parameters) of the control cone. In this paper, steady state and transient characteristics of the solenoid actuator for electro-hydraulic proportional valve are analyzed using finite element method and it is confirmed that the proportional solenoid actuator has a constant attraction force in the control region independently on the stroke position. The effects of the parameters such as control cone length, thickness and taper length are also discussed

  13. Information content of household-stratified epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. Kinyanjui

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs.

  14. Information content of household-stratified epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinyanjui, T M; Pellis, L; House, T

    2016-09-01

    Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Heroin epidemics, treatment and ODE modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Emma; Comiskey, Catherine

    2007-07-01

    The UN [United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC): World Drug Report, 2005, vol. 1: Analysis. UNODC, 2005.], EU [European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA): Annual Report, 2005.http://annualreport.emcdda.eu.int/en/home-en.html.] and WHO [World Health Organisation (WHO): Biregional Strategy for Harm Reduction, 2005-2009. HIV and Injecting Drug Use. WHO, 2005.] have consistently highlighted in recent years the ongoing and persistent nature of opiate and particularly heroin use on a global scale. While this is a global phenomenon, authors have emphasised the significant impact such an epidemic has on individual lives and on society. National prevalence studies have indicated the scale of the problem, but the drug-using career, typically consisting of initiation, habitual use, a treatment-relapse cycle and eventual recovery, is not well understood. This paper presents one of the first ODE models of opiate addiction, based on the principles of mathematical epidemiology. The aim of this model is to identify parameters of interest for further study, with a view to informing and assisting policy-makers in targeting prevention and treatment resources for maximum effectiveness. An epidemic threshold value, R(0), is proposed for the drug-using career. Sensitivity analysis is performed on R(0) and it is then used to examine the stability of the system. A condition under which a backward bifurcation may exist is found, as are conditions that permit the existence of one or more endemic equilibria. A key result arising from this model is that prevention is indeed better than cure.

  16. Development of extruded resistive plastic tubes for proportional chamber cathodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondo, K.

    1982-01-01

    Carbon mixed plastic tubes with resistivity of 10 3 approx. 10 4 Ωcm have been molded with an extrusion method and used for the d.c. cathode of a proportional counter and a multi-wire proportional chamber. The signal by gas multiplication was picked up from a strip r.f. cathode set outside the tube. The characteristics of the counter in the proportional and limited streamer modes have been studied

  17. Contact structures in the poultry industry in Great Britain: Exploring transmission routes for a potential avian influenza virus epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyder Kieran

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The commercial poultry industry in United Kingdom (UK is worth an estimated £3.4 billion at retail value, producing over 174 million birds for consumption per year. An epidemic of any poultry disease with high mortality or which is zoonotic, such as avian influenza virus (AIV, would result in the culling of significant numbers of birds, as seen in the Netherlands in 2003 and Italy in 2000. Such an epidemic would cost the UK government millions of pounds in compensation costs, with further economic losses through reduction of international and UK consumption of British poultry. In order to better inform policy advisers and makers on the potential for a large epidemic in GB, we investigate the role that interactions amongst premises within the British commercial poultry industry could play in promoting an AIV epidemic, given an introduction of the virus in a specific part of poultry industry in Great Britain (GB. Results Poultry premises using multiple slaughterhouses lead to a large number of premises being potentially connected, with the resultant potential for large and sometimes widespread epidemics. Catching companies can also potentially link a large proportion of the poultry population. Critical to this is the maximum distance traveled by catching companies between premises and whether or not between-species transmission could occur within individual premises. Premises closely linked by proximity may result in connections being formed between different species and or sectors within the industry. Conclusion Even quite well-contained epidemics have the potential for geographically widespread dissemination, potentially resulting in severe logistical problems for epidemic control, and with economic impact on a large part of the country. Premises sending birds to multiple slaughterhouses or housing multiple species may act as a bridge between otherwise separate sectors of the industry, resulting in the potential for large

  18. Multiwire proportional chamber for Moessbauer spectroscopy: development and results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, M.S. da.

    1985-12-01

    A new Multiwere proportional Chamber designed for Moessbauer Spectroscopy is presented. This detector allows transmission backscattering experiments using either photons or electrons. The Moessbauer data acquisition system, partially developed for this work is described. A simple method for determining the frontier between true proportional and semi-proportional regions of operation in gaseous detectors is proposed. The study of the tertiary gas mixture He-Ar-CH 4 leads to a straight forward way of energy calibration of the electron spectra. Moessbauer spectra using Fe-57 source are presented. In particular those obtained with backsattered electrons show the feasibility of depth selective analysis with gaseous proportional counters. (author) [pt

  19. Guiding Warfare to Reach Sustainable Peace

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestenskov, David; Drewes, Line

    The conference report Guiding Warfare to Reach Sustainable Peace constitutes the primary outcome of the conference It is based on excerpts from the conference presenters and workshop discussions. Furthermore, the report contains policy recommendations and key findings, with the ambition of develo......The conference report Guiding Warfare to Reach Sustainable Peace constitutes the primary outcome of the conference It is based on excerpts from the conference presenters and workshop discussions. Furthermore, the report contains policy recommendations and key findings, with the ambition...... of developing best practices in the education and implementation of IHL in capacity building of security forces....

  20. Do working environment interventions reach shift workers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Garde, Anne Helene

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Shift workers are exposed to more physical and psychosocial stressors in the working environment as compared to day workers. Despite the need for targeted prevention, it is likely that workplace interventions less frequently reach shift workers. The aim was therefore to investigate whether...... the reach of workplace interventions varied between shift workers and day workers and whether such differences could be explained by the quality of leadership exhibited at different times of the day. METHODS: We used questionnaire data from 5361 female care workers in the Danish eldercare sector...

  1. Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Carrión, E; Ivorra, B; Martínez-López, B; Ramos, A M; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

    2016-04-01

    Be-FAST is a computer program based on a time-spatial stochastic spread mathematical model for studying the transmission of infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. The present work describes a new module integrated into Be-FAST to model the economic consequences of the spreading of classical swine fever (CSF) and other infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. CSF is financially one of the most damaging diseases in the swine industry worldwide. Specifically in Spain, the economic costs in the two last CSF epidemics (1997 and 2001) reached jointly more than 108 million euros. The present analysis suggests that severe CSF epidemics are associated with significant economic costs, approximately 80% of which are related to animal culling. Direct costs associated with control measures are strongly associated with the number of infected farms, while indirect costs are more strongly associated with epidemic duration. The economic model has been validated with economic information around the last outbreaks in Spain. These results suggest that our economic module may be useful for analysing and predicting economic consequences of livestock disease epidemics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Genome-wide study of the defective sucrose fermenter strain of Vibrio cholerae from the Latin American cholera epidemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Rios Garza

    Full Text Available The 7th cholera pandemic reached Latin America in 1991, spreading from Peru to virtually all Latin American countries. During the late epidemic period, a strain that failed to ferment sucrose dominated cholera outbreaks in the Northern Brazilian Amazon region. In order to understand the genomic characteristics and the determinants of this altered sucrose fermenting phenotype, the genome of the strain IEC224 was sequenced. This paper reports a broad genomic study of this strain, showing its correlation with the major epidemic lineage. The potentially mobile genomic regions are shown to possess GC content deviation, and harbor the main V. cholera virulence genes. A novel bioinformatic approach was applied in order to identify the putative functions of hypothetical proteins, and was compared with the automatic annotation by RAST. The genome of a large bacteriophage was found to be integrated to the IEC224's alanine aminopeptidase gene. The presence of this phage is shown to be a common characteristic of the El Tor strains from the Latin American epidemic, as well as its putative ancestor from Angola. The defective sucrose fermenting phenotype is shown to be due to a single nucleotide insertion in the V. cholerae sucrose-specific transportation gene. This frame-shift mutation truncated a membrane protein, altering its structural pore-like conformation. Further, the identification of a common bacteriophage reinforces both the monophyletic and African-Origin hypotheses for the main causative agent of the 1991 Latin America cholera epidemics.

  3. Reaching Reluctant Students: Insights from Torey Hayden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlowe, Mike

    1999-01-01

    Illustrates principles of reaching students who fight or avoid adults by using examples drawn from the writings of Torey Hayden. Presents ten concepts that can serve as guidelines for building relationships with resistant children, and gives excerpts from Hayden's works to illustrate each concept. Demonstrates how books provide teachers with…

  4. ATLAS Barrel Toroid magnet reached nominal field

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

     On 9 November the barrel toroid magnet reached its nominal field of 4 teslas, with an electrical current of 21 000 amperes (21 kA) passing through the eight superconducting coils as shown on this graph

  5. Aplikasi Kontrol PI (Proportional Integral pada Katup Ekspansi Mesin Pendingin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayu Rudiyanto

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan proses perancangan dan pembuatan kontrol katup ekspansi otomatis dengan menggunakan sistem kontrol PI, untuk melakukan proses pengontrolan temperatur ruang evaporator agar didapatkan hasil pembekuan yang lebih optimal. Sensor temperatur LM35 digunakan dalam penelitian ini untuk melakukan pembacaan temperatur pada ruang evaporator, yang mana dari hasil pembacaan sensor tersebut digunakan sebagai sinyal masukan untuk sistem kontrol PI. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian sensor LM35 mempunyai sensitivitas pembacaan sebesar 0,009335 V/oC.  Unjuk kerja sistem kontrol PI pada penelitian ini didapatkan respon yang baik pada nilai Kp = 20 dan Ki = 10, dimana dengan nilai berikut untuk mencapai temperatur set point waktu yang dibutuhkan selama 251 detik dengan nilai maximum overshoot lebih rendah yaitu -2,4 oC. Hasil pendinginan yang didapatkan pada penelitian ini dengan menggunakan sistem kontrol katup ekspansi otomatis didapat proses pendinginan yang lebih cepat dan energi yang dibutuhkan jauh lebih hemat yaitu sebesar 0,265 kWh.   The Application of A Control PI (Proportional Integral on Expansion Valves Refrigeration Machine  Abstract. This research aim to do design process and making control valve expansion automatic by using control system PI, which then applied on refrigerator plates touch to perform the process of control freezing temperatures. Censor temperature LM35 used in this research to do reading the temperature at evaporator room, of results reading sensors is used as input signal to control system PI. Based on the test result of testing censor LM35 have the sensitivity reading of almost accordance with the datav sheet is as much as 0,009335 V/oC. Were control sistem works PI the research this obtained response good to value center Kp = 20 and Ki =10. In which value, to reach set temperature point , the time it takes 251 seconds by value maximum overshoot point lower then -2.4°C. The result

  6. X-ray proportional counter for the Viking Lander

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glesius, F.L.; Kroon, J.C.; Castro, A.J.; Clark, B.C.

    1978-01-01

    A set of four sealed proportional counters with optimized energy response is employed in the X-ray fluorescence spectrometer units aboard the two Viking Landers. The instruments have provided quantitative elemental analyses of soil samples taken from the Martian surface. This paper discusses the design and development of these miniature proportional counters, and describes their performance on Mars

  7. Putative golden proportions as predictors of facial esthetics in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiekens, Rosemie M A; Kuijpers-Jagtman, Anne Marie; van 't Hof, Martin A; van 't Hof, Bep E; Maltha, Jaap C

    2008-10-01

    In orthodontics, facial esthetics is assumed to be related to golden proportions apparent in the ideal human face. The aim of the study was to analyze the putative relationship between facial esthetics and golden proportions in white adolescents. Seventy-six adult laypeople evaluated sets of photographs of 64 adolescents on a visual analog scale (VAS) from 0 to 100. The facial esthetic value of each subject was calculated as a mean VAS score. Three observers recorded the position of 13 facial landmarks included in 19 putative golden proportions, based on the golden proportions as defined by Ricketts. The proportions and each proportion's deviation from the golden target (1.618) were calculated. This deviation was then related to the VAS scores. Only 4 of the 19 proportions had a significant negative correlation with the VAS scores, indicating that beautiful faces showed less deviation from the golden standard than less beautiful faces. Together, these variables explained only 16% of the variance. Few golden proportions have a significant relationship with facial esthetics in adolescents. The explained variance of these variables is too small to be of clinical importance.

  8. Putative golden proportions as predictors of facial esthetics in adolescents.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiekens, R.M.A.; Kuijpers-Jagtman, A.M.; Hof, M.A. van 't; Hof, B.E. van 't; Maltha, J.C.

    2008-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In orthodontics, facial esthetics is assumed to be related to golden proportions apparent in the ideal human face. The aim of the study was to analyze the putative relationship between facial esthetics and golden proportions in white adolescents. METHODS: Seventy-six adult laypeople

  9. The principle of proportionality and European contract law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cauffman, C.; Rutgers, J.; Sirena, P.

    2015-01-01

    The paper investigates the role of the principle of proportionality within contract law, in balancing the rights and obligations of the contracting parties. It illustrates that the principle of proportionality is one of the general principles which govern contractual relations, and as such it is an

  10. The Improved Estimation of Ratio of Two Population Proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solanki, Ramkrishna S.; Singh, Housila P.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, first we obtained the correct mean square error expression of Gupta and Shabbir's linear weighted estimator of the ratio of two population proportions. Later we suggested the general class of ratio estimators of two population proportions. The usual ratio estimator, Wynn-type estimator, Singh, Singh, and Kaur difference-type…

  11. Attention Modulation by Proportion Congruency: The Asymmetrical List Shifting Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahamse, Elger L.; Duthoo, Wout; Notebaert, Wim; Risko, Evan F.

    2013-01-01

    Proportion congruency effects represent hallmark phenomena in current theorizing about cognitive control. This is based on the notion that proportion congruency determines the relative levels of attention to relevant and irrelevant information in conflict tasks. However, little empirical evidence exists that uniquely supports such an attention…

  12. 16 CFR 240.9 - Proportionally equal terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Proportionally equal terms. 240.9 Section 240.9 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION GUIDES AND TRADE PRACTICE RULES GUIDES FOR ADVERTISING ALLOWANCES AND OTHER MERCHANDISING PAYMENTS AND SERVICES § 240.9 Proportionally equal terms. (a...

  13. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  14. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  15. Inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading with entropy-based infected clusters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen-Jie, Zhou; Xing-Yuan, Wang

    2013-12-01

    Considering the difference in the sizes of the infected clusters in the dynamic complex networks, the normalized entropy based on infected clusters (δ*) is proposed to characterize the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading. δ* gives information on the variability of the infected clusters in the system. We investigate the variation in the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the epidemic with the absolute velocity v of moving agent, the infection density ρ, and the interaction radius r. By comparing δ* in the dynamic networks with δH* in homogeneous mode, the simulation experiments show that the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading becomes smaller with the increase of v, ρ, r.

  16. The psychiatric epidemic in the American workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodsky, C M

    1988-01-01

    make renouncement tantamount to betrayal. The mass psychogenic illness or psychiatric epidemic that occurs in the workplace offers an opportunity not only to study the elements of a biopsychosocial system, but also offers opportunities for medical anthropological studies that relate the causes and courses of specific episodes of MPI to the cultures of the individuals who develop symptoms and the cultures of the area in which the epidemic occurs.

  17. Adaptation to delayed force perturbations in reaching movements.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noa Levy

    Full Text Available Adaptation to deterministic force perturbations during reaching movements was extensively studied in the last few decades. Here, we use this methodology to explore the ability of the brain to adapt to a delayed velocity-dependent force field. Two groups of subjects preformed a standard reaching experiment under a velocity dependent force field. The force was either immediately proportional to the current velocity (Control or lagged it by 50 ms (Test. The results demonstrate clear adaptation to the delayed force perturbations. Deviations from a straight line during catch trials were shifted in time compared to post-adaptation to a non-delayed velocity dependent field (Control, indicating expectation to the delayed force field. Adaptation to force fields is considered to be a process in which the motor system predicts the forces to be expected based on the state that a limb will assume in response to motor commands. This study demonstrates for the first time that the temporal window of this prediction needs not to be fixed. This is relevant to the ability of the adaptive mechanisms to compensate for variability in the transmission of information across the sensory-motor system.

  18. Inactivation of Parietal Reach Region Affects Reaching But Not Saccade Choices in Internally Guided Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopoulos, Vassilios N; Bonaiuto, James; Kagan, Igor; Andersen, Richard A

    2015-08-19

    The posterior parietal cortex (PPC) has traditionally been considered important for awareness, spatial perception, and attention. However, recent findings provide evidence that the PPC also encodes information important for making decisions. These findings have initiated a running argument of whether the PPC is critically involved in decision making. To examine this issue, we reversibly inactivated the parietal reach region (PRR), the area of the PPC that is specialized for reaching movements, while two monkeys performed a memory-guided reaching or saccade task. The task included choices between two equally rewarded targets presented simultaneously in opposite visual fields. Free-choice trials were interleaved with instructed trials, in which a single cue presented in the peripheral visual field defined the reach and saccade target unequivocally. We found that PRR inactivation led to a strong reduction of contralesional choices, but only for reaches. On the other hand, saccade choices were not affected by PRR inactivation. Importantly, reaching and saccade movements to single instructed targets remained largely intact. These results cannot be explained as an effector-nonspecific deficit in spatial attention or awareness, since the temporary "lesion" had an impact only on reach choices. Hence, the PPR is a part of a network for reach decisions and not just reach planning. There has been an ongoing debate on whether the posterior parietal cortex (PPC) represents only spatial awareness, perception, and attention or whether it is also involved in decision making for actions. In this study we explore whether the parietal reach region (PRR), the region of the PPC that is specialized for reaches, is involved in the decision process. We inactivated the PRR while two monkeys performed reach and saccade choices between two targets presented simultaneously in both hemifields. We found that inactivation affected only the reach choices, while leaving saccade choices intact

  19. Which Mixed-Member Proportional Electoral Formula Fits You Best? Assessing the Proportionality Principle of Positive Vote Transfer Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bochsler, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Mixed-member proportional systems (MMP) are a family of electoral systems which combine district-based elections with a proportional seat allocation. Positive vote transfer systems belong to this family. This article explains why they might be better than their siblings, and examines under which ...

  20. Improving exposure scenario definitions within REACH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Jihyun; Pizzol, Massimo; Thomsen, Marianne

    In recent years, the paradigm of chemical management system has changed from being toxicity oriented and media based to being risk oriented and receptor based. This trend is evident not only regarding environmental quality standards, but also for industrial chemical regulations. Political...... instruments to support a precautionary chemicals management system and to protect receptor’s health have also been increasing. Since 2007, the European Union adopted REACH (the Regulation on Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals): REACH makes industry responsible for assessing...... and managing the risks posed by industrial chemicals and providing appropriate safety information to their users (EC, 2007). However, to ensure a high level of protection of human health and the environment, there is a need to consider ‘aggregate exposure’ including background exposures from environment which...

  1. Does workplace health promotion reach shift workers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Garde, Anne Helene; Clausen, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: One reason for health disparities between shift and day workers may be that workplace health promotion does not reach shift workers to the same extent as it reaches day workers. This study aimed to investigate the association between shift work and the availability of and participation...... in workplace health promotion. METHODS: We used cross-sectional questionnaire data from a large representative sample of all employed people in Denmark. We obtained information on the availability of and participation in six types of workplace health promotion. We also obtained information on working hours, ie......). RESULTS: In the general working population, fixed evening and fixed night workers, and employees working variable shifts including night work reported a higher availability of health promotion, while employees working variable shifts without night work reported a lower availability of health promotion...

  2. [HIV/AIDS in South Africa and Haiti: the failure of epidemic governance and achievement of the MDGs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelot, Fils-Lien Ely

    2009-01-01

    Since their adoption in 2000 by the United Nations, the Millennium Development Goals set for 2015 appear to have become a part of the policy agenda of all of the member states. Three of these eight objectives deal with health issues. "Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases": this is the formulation of the sixth MDG. Observing that in many countries strongly affected by poverty and inequalities, the epidemic continues to spread, without really reversing at all, and that access to antiretrovirals is possible for only a small proportion of the patient who need them, we consider the problems of global governance in the field of health. Our intention is to explain that the failure to deal with the HIV/AIDS epidemic may constitute an obstacle to the achievement of the MDGs by 2015. Proposing a comprehensive sociology of HIV/AIDS, this article pays special attention to the dimension of the meaning of the disease, simultaneously as a policy issue, a social construction, and an object of study in the social sciences. Looking at the two countries most affected by the epidemic in Africa and in the Caribbean, we examine the different aspects that have determined the failure of governance and the effects of this failure on the populations concerned. The excessive conflictuality in South Africa and the biopolitics of "let them die" and the fragmentation of the networks involved in the combat in Haiti are considered to have contributed to a crisis in the epidemic's governance. In both cases, the consequences have been expressed by a reduced life expectancy, insufficient access to antiretroviral drugs, reinforcement of the socioeconomic inequalities of health, the production of new pockets of poverty, more fragile household and national economies, an increase in maternal and child mortality ... The failure of the governance of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in countries such as Haiti and South Africa appears to foretell the impossibility of achieving the MDGs by 2015.

  3. Olefins and chemical regulation in Europe: REACH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penman, Mike; Banton, Marcy; Erler, Steffen; Moore, Nigel; Semmler, Klaus

    2015-11-05

    REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals) is the European Union's chemical regulation for the management of risk to human health and the environment (European Chemicals Agency, 2006). This regulation entered into force in June 2007 and required manufacturers and importers to register substances produced in annual quantities of 1000 tonnes or more by December 2010, with further deadlines for lower tonnages in 2013 and 2018. Depending on the type of registration, required information included the substance's identification, the hazards of the substance, the potential exposure arising from the manufacture or import, the identified uses of the substance, and the operational conditions and risk management measures applied or recommended to downstream users. Among the content developed to support this information were Derived No-Effect Levels or Derived Minimal Effect Levels (DNELs/DMELs) for human health hazard assessment, Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNECs) for environmental hazard assessment, and exposure scenarios for exposure and risk assessment. Once registered, substances may undergo evaluation by the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) or Member State authorities and be subject to requests for additional information or testing as well as additional risk reduction measures. To manage the REACH registration and related activities for the European olefins and aromatics industry, the Lower Olefins and Aromatics REACH Consortium was formed in 2008 with administrative and technical support provided by Penman Consulting. A total of 135 substances are managed by this group including 26 individual chemical registrations (e.g. benzene, 1,3-butadiene) and 13 categories consisting of 5-26 substances. This presentation will describe the content of selected registrations prepared for 2010 in addition to the significant post-2010 activities. Beyond REACH, content of the registrations may also be relevant to other European activities, for

  4. Performance reach in the LHC for 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arduini, G.

    2012-01-01

    Based on the 2011 experience and Machine Development study results, the performance reach of the LHC with 25 and 50 ns beams will be addressed for operation at 3.5 and 4 TeV. The possible scrubbing scenarios and potential intensity limitations resulting from vacuum, heating will be taken into account wherever possible. The paper mainly covers the performance of the two high luminosity regions in IR1 and IR5. (author)

  5. Ebola Virus Disease 2013-2014 Outbreak in West Africa: An Analysis of the Epidemic Spread and Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando Cenciarelli

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Ebola virus epidemic burst in West Africa in late 2013, started in Guinea, reached in a few months an alarming diffusion, actually involving several countries (Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal, and Mali. Guinea and Liberia, the first nations affected by the outbreak, have put in place measures to contain the spread, supported by international organizations; then they were followed by the other nations affected. In the present EVD outbreak, the geographical spread of the virus has followed a new route: the achievement of large urban areas at an early stage of the epidemic has led to an unprecedented diffusion, featuring the largest outbreak of EVD of all time. This has caused significant concerns all over the world: the potential reaching of far countries from endemic areas, mainly through fast transports, induced several countries to issue information documents and health supervision for individuals going to or coming from the areas at risk. In this paper the geographical spread of the epidemic was analyzed, assessing the sequential appearance of cases by geographic area, considering the increase in cases and mortality according to affected nations. The measures implemented by each government and international organizations to contain the outbreak, and their effectiveness, were also evaluated.

  6. Current Zika virus epidemiology and recent epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioos, S; Mallet, H-P; Leparc Goffart, I; Gauthier, V; Cardoso, T; Herida, M

    2014-07-01

    The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus (Aedes), similar to other arboviruses, first identified in Uganda in 1947. Few human cases were reported until 2007, when a Zika outbreak occurred in Yap, Micronesia, even though ZIKV activity had been reported in Africa and in Asia through virological surveillance and entomological studies. French Polynesia has recorded a large outbreak since October 2013. A great number of cases and some with neurological and autoimmune complications have been reported in a context of concurrent circulation of dengue viruses. The clinical presentation is a "dengue-like syndrome". Until the epidemic in French Polynesia, no severe ZIKV disease had been described so far. The diagnosis is confirmed by viral genome detection by genomic amplification (RT- PCR) and viral isolation. These two large outbreaks occurred in a previously unaffected area in less than a decade. They should raise awareness as to the potential for ZIKV to spread especially since this emergent disease is not well known and that some questions remain on potential reservoirs and transmission modes as well as on clinical presentations and complications. ZIKV has the potential to spread to new areas where the Aedes mosquito vector is present and could be a risk for Southern Europe. Strategies for the prevention and control of ZIKV disease should include the use of insect repellent and mosquito vector eradication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  7. Diffusive epidemic process: theory and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maia, Daniel Souza; Dickman, Ronald

    2007-01-01

    We study the continuous absorbing-state phase transition in the one-dimensional diffusive epidemic process via mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulation. In this model, particles of two species (A and B) hop on a lattice and undergo reactions B → A and A+B → 2B; the total particle number is conserved. We formulate the model as a continuous-time Markov process described by a master equation. A phase transition between the (absorbing) B-free state and an active state is observed as the parameters (reaction and diffusion rates, and total particle density) are varied. Mean-field theory reveals a surprising, nonmonotonic dependence of the critical recovery rate on the diffusion rate of B particles. A computational realization of the process that is faithful to the transition rates defining the model is devised, allowing for direct comparison with theory. Using the quasi-stationary simulation method we determine the order parameter and the survival time in systems of up to 4000 sites. Due to strong finite-size effects, the results converge only for large system sizes. We find no evidence for a discontinuous transition. Our results are consistent with the existence of three distinct universality classes, depending on whether A particles diffusive more rapidly, less rapidly or at the same rate as B particles. We also perform quasi-stationary simulations of the triplet creation model, which yield results consistent with a discontinuous transition at high diffusion rates

  8. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  9. Human enterovirus 71 epidemics: what's next?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Cyril C. Y.; Lau, Susanna K. P.; Woo, Patrick C. Y.; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

    2013-01-01

    Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) epidemics have affected various countries in the past 40 years. EV71 commonly causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children, but can result in neurological and cardiorespiratory complications in severe cases. Genotypic changes of EV71 have been observed in different places over time, with the emergence of novel genotypes or subgenotypes giving rise to serious outbreaks. Since the late 1990s, intra- and inter-typic recombination events in EV71 have been increasingly reported in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, ‘double-recombinant’ EV71 strains belonging to a novel genotype D have been predominant in mainland China and Hong Kong over the last decade, though co-circulating with a minority of other EV71 subgenotypes and coxsackie A viruses. Continuous surveillance and genome studies are important to detect potential novel mutants or recombinants in the near future. Rapid and sensitive molecular detection of EV71 is of paramount importance in anticipating and combating EV71 outbreaks. PMID:24119538

  10. The proportionate value of proportionality in palliative sedation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Jeffrey T

    2014-01-01

    Proportionality, as it pertains to palliative sedation, is the notion that sedation should be induced at the lowest degree effective for symptom control, so that the patient's consciousness may be preserved. The pursuit of proportionality in palliative sedation is a widely accepted imperative advocated in position statements and guidelines on this treatment. The priority assigned to the pursuit of proportionality, and the extent to which it is relevant for patients who qualify for palliative sedation, have been overstated. Copyright 2014 The Journal of Clinical Ethics. All rights reserved.

  11. An integrated photosensor readout for gas proportional scintillation counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopes, J.A.M.; Santos, J.M.F. dos; Conde, C.A.N.

    1996-01-01

    A xenon gas proportional scintillation counter has been instrumented with a novel photosensor that replaces the photomultiplier tube normally used to detect the VUV secondary scintillation light. In this implementation, the collection grid of a planar gas proportional scintillation counter also functions as a multiwire proportional chamber to amplify and detect the photoelectrons emitted by a reflective CsI photocathode in direct contact with the xenon gas. This integrated concept combines greater simplicity, compactness, and ruggedness (no optical window is used) with low power consumption. An energy resolution of 12% was obtained for 59.6 keV x-rays

  12. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  13. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  14. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  15. The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent's awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire

  16. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  17. Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

  18. [Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frøland, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

  19. 2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Granel, Estelle

    2006-01-01

    The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

  20. History of the HIV epidemic and response in Swaziland

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    that self-stigma, multiple concurrent partnerships and short-term relationships, decision on condom use and ... This prevents MSM from seeking health services. To .... 90-90-90: An ambitious treatment target to help end the AIDS epidemic.

  1. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  2. Epidemic spread over networks with agent awareness and social distancing

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2016-01-01

    with their neighbors (social distancing) when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent or resume normal interactions when they believe there is low risk of becoming infected. The information is a weighted combination of three sources: 1) the average states

  3. Context analysis for epidemic control in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizer, Y.L.; Kraaij-Dirkzwager, M.M.; Timen, A.; Schuitmaker-Warnaar, T.J.; van Steenbergen, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    When epidemics occur, experts advise the Ministries on effective control measures. There is uncertainty in the translation of epidemiological evidence into effective outbreak management interventions, due to contradicatory problem perspectives, diverse interests and time pressure. Several models

  4. INTRODUCTION The global HIV epidemic continues to expand with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    maybe potentially dangerous in low resource settings.6. Women infected with ... The HIV epidemic in children parallels that among women on account of perinatal ... unknown.14, 15 Immune suppression resulting from general anaesthetics ...

  5. Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

    2017-02-10

    The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

  6. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yun; Ding, Li; Huang, Yun-Han; Guan, Zhi-Hong

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. Project supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61403284, 61272114, 61673303, and 61672112) and the Marine Renewable Energy Special Fund Project of the State Oceanic Administration of China (Grant No. GHME2013JS01).

  7. Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities and social pressures ... It frames risk in the context of the dynamics governing sexuality, underlined ... MSM risk and practice, in these contexts, are consequently shaped by ...

  8. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changwang Zhang

    Full Text Available Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

  9. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M

    2015-01-01

    Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

  10. Epidemic transmission on random mobile network with diverse infection periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kezan; Yu, Hong; Zeng, Zhaorong; Ding, Yong; Ma, Zhongjun

    2015-05-01

    The heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity and time-varying topological structure are two realistic factors when we study epidemics on complex networks. Current research results have shown that the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can increase the epidemic threshold in a random mobile dynamical network with the same infection period. In this paper, we will focus on random mobile dynamical networks with diverse infection periods due to people's different constitutions and external circumstances. Theoretical results indicate that the epidemic threshold of the random mobile network with diverse infection periods is larger than the counterpart with the same infection period. Moreover, the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can play a significant impact on disease transmission. In particular, the homogeneity of individuals will avail to the spreading of epidemics. Numerical examples verify further our theoretical results very well.

  11. Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

  12. Underrecognition of Dengue during 2013 Epidemic in Luanda, Angola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Tyler M; Moreira, Rosa; Soares, Maria José; Miguel da Costa, Lúis; Mann, Jennifer; DeLorey, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Colón, Candimar; Margolis, Harold S; de Caravalho, Adelaide; Tomashek, Kay M

    2015-08-01

    During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test-positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

  13. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  14. Large-proportional shrunken bio-replication of shark skin based on UV-curing shrinkage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Huawei; Che, Da; Zhang, Xin; Yue, Yue; Zhang, Deyuan

    2015-01-01

    The shark skin effect has attracted worldwide attention because of its superior drag reduction. As the product of natural selection, the maximum drag reduction of shark skin is found in its normal living environment. Large-proportional shrinkage of shark skin morphology is greatly anticipated for its adaptation to faster fluid flow. One novel approach, large-proportional shrunken bio-replication, is proposed as a method to adjust the optimal drag reduction region of shark skin based on the shrinkage of UV-cured material. The shark skin is taken as a replica template to allow large-proportional shrinking in the drag reduction morphology by taking advantage of the shrinkage of UV-curable material. The accuracy of the large-proportional shrunken bio-replication approach is verified by a comparison between original and shrunken bio-replicated shark skin, which shows that the shrinking ratio can reach 23% and the bio-replication accuracy is higher than 95%. In addition, the translation of the optimum drag reduction peak of natural surface function to various applications and environments is proved by drag reduction experiments. (technical note)

  15. Balancing equity and efficiency in the Dutch basic benefits package using the principle of proportional shortfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Wetering, E J; Stolk, E A; van Exel, N J A; Brouwer, W B F

    2013-02-01

    Economic evaluations are increasingly used to inform decisions regarding the allocation of scarce health care resources. To systematically incorporate societal preferences into these evaluations, quality-adjusted life year gains could be weighted according to some equity principle, the most suitable of which is a matter of frequent debate. While many countries still struggle with equity concerns for priority setting in health care, the Netherlands has reached a broad consensus to use the concept of proportional shortfall. Our study evaluates the concept and its support in the Dutch health care context. We discuss arguments in the Netherlands for using proportional shortfall and difficulties in transitioning from principle to practice. In doing so, we address universal issues leading to a systematic consideration of equity concerns for priority setting in health care. The article thus has relevance to all countries struggling with the formalization of equity concerns for priority setting.

  16. Bayesian inference in an extended SEIR model with nonparametric disease transmission rate: an application to the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasso, Gianluca; Lambert, Philippe

    2016-10-01

    SummaryThe 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone is analyzed using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) epidemic compartmental model. The discrete time-stochastic model for the epidemic evolution is coupled to a set of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of the expected proportions of subjects in each epidemic state. The unknown parameters are estimated in a Bayesian framework by combining data on the number of new (laboratory confirmed) Ebola cases reported by the Ministry of Health and prior distributions for the transition rates elicited using information collected by the WHO during the follow-up of specific Ebola cases. The time-varying disease transmission rate is modeled in a flexible way using penalized B-splines. Our framework represents a valuable stochastic tool for the study of an epidemic dynamic even when only irregularly observed and possibly aggregated data are available. Simulations and the analysis of the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola data highlight the merits of the proposed methodology. In particular, the flexible modeling of the disease transmission rate makes the estimation of the effective reproduction number robust to the misspecification of the initial epidemic states and to underreporting of the infectious cases. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks

    OpenAIRE

    Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended anal...

  18. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explo...

  19. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Granell, Clara; Gomez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemics, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusiv...

  20. Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Valeri

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

  1. A reduced feedback proportional fair multiuser scheduling scheme

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad; Alnuweiri, Hussein M.; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2011-01-01

    . A slight reduction in the prospected multiuser diversity gains is an acceptable trade-off for great savings in terms of required channel-state-information feedback messages. In this work, we propose a novel proportional fair multiuser switched

  2. DC motor proportional control system for orthotic devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaise, H. T.; Allen, J. R.

    1972-01-01

    Multi-channel proportional control system for operation of dc motors for use with externally-powered orthotic arm braces is described. Components of circuitry and principles of operation are described. Schematic diagram of control circuit is provided.

  3. Proportional feedback control of laminar flow over a hemisphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jung Il [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Ajou University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Son, Dong Gun [Severe Accident and PHWR Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-08-15

    In the present study, we perform a proportional feedback control of laminar flow over a hemisphere at Re = 300 to reduce its lift fluctuations by attenuating the strength of the vortex shedding. As a control input, blowing/suction is distributed on the surface of hemisphere before the separation, and its strength is linearly proportional to the transverse velocity at a sensing location in the centerline of the wake. The sensing location is determined based on a correlation function between the lift force and the time derivative of sensing velocity. The optimal proportional gains for the proportional control are obtained for the sensing locations considered. The present control successfully attenuates the velocity fluctuations at the sensing location and three dimensional vertical structures in the wake, resulting in the reduction of lift fluctuations of hemisphere.

  4. Operability test report for 211BA flow proportional sampler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weissenfels, R.D.

    1995-01-01

    This operability report will verify that the 211-BA flow proportional sampler functions as intended by design. The sampler was installed by Project W-007H and is part of BAT/AKART for the BCE liquid effluent stream

  5. A parsimonious model for the proportional control valve

    OpenAIRE

    Elmer, KF; Gentle, CR

    2001-01-01

    A generic non-linear dynamic model of a direct-acting electrohydraulic proportional solenoid valve is presented. The valve consists of two subsystems-s-a spool assembly and one or two unidirectional proportional solenoids. These two subsystems are modelled separately. The solenoid is modelled as a non-linear resistor-inductor combination, with inductance parameters that change with current. An innovative modelling method has been used to represent these components. The spool assembly is model...

  6. Reduction of degraded events in miniaturized proportional counters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plaga, R.; Kirsten, T. (Max Planck Inst. fuer Kernphysik, Heidelberg (Germany))

    1991-11-15

    A method to reduce the number of degraded events in miniaturized proportional counters is described. A shaping of the outer cathode leads to a more uniform gas gain along the counter axis. The method is useful in situations in which the total number of decay events is very low. The effects leading to degraded events are studied theoretically and experimentally. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated by using it for the proportional counter of the GALLEX solar neutrino experiment. (orig.).

  7. Modelling and analysis of piezoelectric cantilever energy harvester for different proof mass and material proportion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shashank, R.; Harisha, S. K., Dr; Abhishek, M. C.

    2018-02-01

    Energy harvesting using ambient energy sources is one of the fast growing trends in the world, research and development in the area of energy harvesting is moving progressively to get maximum power output from the existing resources. The ambient sources of energy available in the nature are solar energy, wind energy, thermal energy, vibrational energy etc. out of these methods energy harvesting by vibrational energy sources gain more importance due to its nature of not getting influenced by any environmental parameters and its free availability at anytime and anywhere. The project mainly deals with validating the values of voltage and electrical power output of experimentally conducted energy harvester, varying the parameters of the energy harvester and analyse the effect of the parameters on the performance of the energy harvester and compare the results. The cantilever beam was designed, analysed and simulated using COMSOL multi-physics software. The energy harvester gives an electrical output voltage of the 2.75 volts at a natural frequency of 37.2 Hz and an electrical power of 29μW. Decreasing the percentage of the piezoelectric material and simultaneously increasing the percentage of polymer material (so that total percentage of proportion remains same) increases the electrical voltage and decreases the natural frequency of the beam linearly upto 3.9V and 28.847 Hz till the percentage proportion of the beam was 24% piezoelectric beam and 76% polymer beam when the percentage proportion increased to 26% and 74% natural frequency goes on decreases further but voltage suddenly drops to 2.8V. The voltage generated by energy harvester increases proportionally and reaches 3.7V until weight of the proof mass reaches 4 grams and further increase in the weight of the proof mass decreases the voltage generated by energy harvester. Thus the investigation conveys that the weight of the proof mass and the length of the cantilever beam should be optimised to obtain maximum

  8. Engaging 'communities': anthropological insights from the West African Ebola epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, A; Parker, M; Martineau, F; Leach, M

    2017-05-26

    The recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa highlights how engaging with the sociocultural dimensions of epidemics is critical to mounting an effective outbreak response. Community engagement was pivotal to ending the epidemic and will be to post-Ebola recovery, health system strengthening and future epidemic preparedness and response. Extensive literatures in the social sciences have emphasized how simple notions of community, which project solidarity onto complex hierarchies and politics, can lead to ineffective policies and unintended consequences at the local level, including doing harm to vulnerable populations. This article reflects on the nature of community engagement during the Ebola epidemic and demonstrates a disjuncture between local realities and what is being imagined in post-Ebola reports about the lessons that need to be learned for the future. We argue that to achieve stated aims of building trust and strengthening outbreak response and health systems, public health institutions need to reorientate their conceptualization of 'the community' and develop ways of working which take complex social and political relationships into account.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

  9. A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brauer Fred

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

  10. Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Mirelle B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Joanne

    2011-01-01

    Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

  11. Emerging epidemic of type 2 diabetes in youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbloom, A L; Joe, J R; Young, R S; Winter, W E

    1999-02-01

    type 2 diabetes in adulthood. The thrifty phenotype hypothesis states that poor nutrition in fetal and infant life is detrimental to the development and function of the beta-cells and insulin sensitive tissues, leading to insulin resistance under the stress of obesity. The thrifty genotype hypothesis proposes that defective insulin action in utero results in decreased fetal growth as a conservation mechanism, but at the cost of obesity-induced diabetes in later childhood or adulthood. The vast majority of type 2 diabetes in adults is polygenic and associated with obesity. Monogenic forms (MODY, maternally transmitted mitochondrial mutations) are rare, but are more likely to appear in childhood. Linkage studies of the common polygenic type 2 diabetes have emphasized the heterogeneity of the disorder. The prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes in children and youth is a daunting challenge because of the enormous behavioral influence, difficulty in reversing obesity, and typical nonadherence in this age-group. The emerging epidemic of type 2 diabetes in the pediatric population, especially among minorities whose proportion in the U.S. population is increasing, presents a serious public health problem. The full effect of this epidemic will be felt as these children become adults and develop the long-term complications of diabetes.

  12. Riparian Vegetation Mapping Along the Hanford Reach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    FOGWELL, T.W.

    2003-01-01

    During the biological survey and inventory of the Hanford Site conducted in the mid-1990s (1995 and 1996), preliminary surveys of the riparian vegetation were conducted along the Hanford Reach. These preliminary data were reported to The Nature Conservancy (TNC), but were not included in any TNC reports to DOE or stakeholders. During the latter part of FY2001, PNNL contracted with SEE Botanical, the parties that performed the original surveys in the mid 1990s, to complete the data summaries and mapping associated with the earlier survey data. Those data sets were delivered to PNNL and the riparian mapping by vegetation type for the Hanford Reach is being digitized during the first quarter of FY2002. These mapping efforts provide the information necessary to create subsequent spatial data layers to describe the riparian zone according to plant functional types (trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, forbs). Quantification of the riparian zone by vegetation types is important to a number of DOE'S priority issues including modeling contaminant transport and uptake in the near-riverine environment and the determination of ecological risk. This work included the identification of vegetative zones along the Reach by changes in dominant plant species covering the shoreline from just to the north of the 300 Area to China Bar near Vernita. Dominant and indicator species included Agropyron dasytachyudA. smithii, Apocynum cannabinum, Aristida longiseta, Artemisia campestris ssp. borealis var scouleriana, Artemisa dracunculus, Artemisia lindleyana, Artemisia tridentata, Bromus tectorum, Chrysothamnus nauseosus, Coreopsis atkinsoniana. Eleocharis palustris, Elymus cinereus, Equisetum hyemale, Eriogonum compositum, Juniperus trichocarpa, Phalaris arundinacea, Poa compressa. Salk exigua, Scirpus acutus, Solidago occidentalis, Sporobolus asper,and Sporobolus cryptandrus. This letter report documents the data received, the processing by PNNL staff, and additional data gathered in FY2002

  13. Long-reach manipulators for decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, D.A.; Challinor, S.F.

    1993-01-01

    A survey of redundant facilities at Sellafield has identified that in many cases the conventional means of deploying remote handling equipment are not appropriate and that novel means must be employed. However, decommissioning is not a value adding activity and so expensive one off designs must be avoided. The paper will describe BNFL's approach to the synthesis from proprietary parts of a manipulator which can lift 3 te at a horizontal reach of over 5 metres and yet can still perform the dextrous manipulation necessary to remove small items. It will also cover the development of the manipulator control systems and the adaption of commercial handtools to be manipulator friendly. (author)

  14. Luminosity performance reach after LS1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herr, W.

    2012-01-01

    Based on past experience (2010/2011), in particular expected limitations from beam-beam effects, and taking into account the expected beam quality from the LHC injectors, the peak and integrated luminosity at top energy is discussed for different scenarios (e.g. bunch spacing, beta*). In particular it will be shown which are the key parameters to reach the nominal luminosity and it is also shown that peak luminosities two times larger than nominal (or higher) are possible. Possible test in 2012 are discussed

  15. City Reach Code Technical Support Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Chen, Yan [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Jian [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Bing [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Frankel, Mark [New Buildings Inst., Portland, OR (United States); Lyles, Mark [New Buildings Inst., Portland, OR (United States)

    2017-10-31

    This report describes and analyzes a set of energy efficiency measures that will save 20% energy over ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013. The measures will be used to formulate a Reach Code for cities aiming to go beyond national model energy codes. A coalition of U.S. cities together with other stakeholders wanted to facilitate the development of voluntary guidelines and standards that can be implemented in stages at the city level to improve building energy efficiency. The coalition's efforts are being supported by the U.S. Department of Energy via Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and in collaboration with the New Buildings Institute.

  16. Russia is on brink of AIDS epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingram, M

    1996-08-03

    Russia, and in particular Moscow, is on the brink of an AIDS epidemic, the president of the Russian Medical Academy told doctors gathered in Moscow for a national AIDS seminar. Although Russia has officially registered only 1269 cases of HIV infection, a quarter of them in Moscow, and 193 deaths since the first case appeared in Russia in 1987, health officials are alarmed by the recent rise in the rate of infection. In 1995, 200 new cases were registered, but 205 cases had already been registered in the first 6 months of 1996. The rapid spread of intravenous drug use is the main factor contributing to the rise in HIV infection. According to the head of the Russian AIDS Center, the real number of people infected with HIV in Russia is 3-4 times higher than official numbers, while AIDS activists believe that the real figure is 10-20 times higher. Russia has traditionally blamed its AIDS problem on foreigners and introduced an obligatory HIV test as a visa requirement for long-term visitors. Now neighboring Ukraine and Belarus are being blamed for the latest crisis. Of 1000 known intravenous drug users tested in Svetlogorsk, Belarus, 158 are HIV positive, with 20 results still outstanding. Previously, only 130 people in Belarus were known to be infected with HIV. In the Ukraine, where HIV testing has shown that over 5000 people are HIV positive and where a further 20,000 are estimated to be infected, a special subtype of HIV-1 has been discovered. In 1995 there were 1021 new cases of HIV infection, but in the first 4 months of this year there were 1805 new cases. Although the chief AIDS specialist at Russia's health ministry agrees that health education is more important than scare tactics against foreigners, in 1995 the health ministry received only 49% of the funds allocated for national AIDS education.

  17. Building partnerships to address the HIV epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, A C; Leo, Y S; Lee, C C

    2008-05-01

    Batam is one of the islands comprising the Riau Province in Indonesia, and is closest to Singapore. It is a popular destination of many Singaporeans. Surveillance reports among commercial sex workers conducted in Batam showed the prevalence rate of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is 16.2 percent. At the end of 2006, the total number of HIV-infected Singaporeans was 3,060, the majority being infected via heterosexual transmission. The aim of the Indonesian government is to rapidly scale up HIV treatment to those needing it. One of the factors critical to the rapid scale-up is healthcare worker training. An intersectoral collaboration addressing the issue of HIV care and treatment with a hospital in Batam was created. The first activity of the collaboration was a two-day HIV training course conducted in February 2007. The aim of the course was to provide a basic understanding of HIV, as well as knowledge on common opportunistic infections that may present to a general hospital or clinical setting. 34 doctors from 23 institutions in Batam and three doctors from two hospitals in the Riau Islands attended the two-day HIV training course. The participants found the training very useful and highly relevant. This first HIV training provided a foundation to build on further HIV education. It is our belief that through the HIV training programme, there will be more awareness of HIV among the various medical institutions in Batam. As the HIV epidemic knows no borders, working with neighbouring countries is one strategy that deserves attention.

  18. Ongoing dengue epidemic - Angola, June 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-21

    On April 1, 2013, the Public Health Directorate of Angola announced that six cases of dengue had been reported to the Ministry of Health of Angola (MHA). As of May 31, a total of 517 suspected dengue cases had been reported and tested for dengue with a rapid diagnostic test (RDT). A total of 313 (60.5%) specimens tested positive for dengue, including one from a patient who died. All suspected cases were reported from Luanda Province, except for two from Malanje Province. Confirmatory diagnostic testing of 49 specimens (43 RDT-positive and six RDT-negative) at the CDC Dengue Branch confirmed dengue virus (DENV) infection in 100% of the RDT-positive specimens and 50% of the RDT-negative specimens. Only DENV-1 was detected by molecular diagnostic testing. Phylogenetic analysis indicated this virus has been circulating in the region since at least 1968, strongly suggesting that dengue is endemic in Angola. Health-care professionals throughout Angola should be aware of the ongoing epidemic, the recommended practices for clinical management of dengue patients, and the need to report cases to MHA. Persons in Angola should seek medical care for acute febrile illness to reduce the risk for developing complications. Laboratory-confirmed dengue also has been reported from seven countries on four continents among persons who had recently traveled to Luanda, including 79 persons from Portugal. Angola is the third of four African countries to report a dengue outbreak in 2013. Persons returning from Africa with acute febrile illness should seek medical care, including testing for DENV infection, and suspected cases should be reported to public health authorities.

  19. Regulation, proportionality and discharges of radioactive wastes: UK perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morley, Bob; Butler, Gregg; Mc Glynn, Grace

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, the UK Government and the Regulators have made a commitment to further improve the operation of the regulatory regime and to its operating within the principles of proportionality, transparency, consistency and accountability which underpin the Government's approach to regulation in general. Particular emphasis was to be placed upon ensuring that there is greater consistency in the treatment of risk and hazard; proportionate and cost effective delivery of public, worker and environmental protection; and an open and transparently applied regulatory system. It is noteworthy that with regard to radiation protection, there are different limits for public doses and workforce doses, with the latter 15 times greater. Allowable doses for medical patients are higher still. This discrepancy raises a question in itself. This presentation focuses on the practical application of the regulatory regime with particular regard to environmental discharges and disposals. Under the Radioactive Substances Act 1993, Operators within the UK nuclear industry are required to employ Best Practicable Means (BPM) to control and minimise radioactive discharges to ensure that doses from discharges are As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA). Scientific assessments to date indicate that there are no expectations of environmental harm from discharges at Sellafield (and hence likewise at other UK nuclear sites where the discharges are lower), even where those discharges have historically been up to two orders of magnitude higher than current levels. Current discharges result in doses which are a small fraction of those received by the UK population due to natural background radiation. In addition, there is no proven environmental harm from foreseeable future discharges from Sellafield or other UK nuclear sites. This is supported by independent work which illustrates that the public collective dose from Sellafield discharges is almost all delivered at risks of less that one in a

  20. Modeling the 2014 Ebola Virus Epidemic - Agent-Based Simulations, Temporal Analysis and Future Predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siettos, Constantinos; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2015-03-09

    We developed an agent-based model to investigate the epidemic dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Liberia and Sierra Leone from May 27 to December 21, 2014. The dynamics of the agent-based simulator evolve on small-world transmission networks of sizes equal to the population of each country, with adjustable densities to account for the effects of public health intervention policies and individual behavioral responses to the evolving epidemic. Based on time series of the official case counts from the World Health Organization (WHO), we provide estimates for key epidemiological variables by employing the so-called Equation-Free approach. The underlying transmission networks were characterized by rather random structures in the two countries with densities decreasing by ~19% from the early (May 27-early August) to the last period (mid October-December 21). Our estimates for the values of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate, are very close to the ones reported by the WHO Ebola response team during the early period of the epidemic (until September 14) that were calculated based on clinical data. Specifically, regarding the effective reproductive number Re, our analysis suggests that until mid October, Re was above 2.3 in both countries; from mid October to December 21, Re dropped well below unity in Liberia, indicating a saturation of the epidemic, while in Sierra Leone it was around 1.9, indicating an ongoing epidemic. Accordingly, a ten-week projection from December 21 estimated that the epidemic will fade out in Liberia in early March; in contrast, our results flashed a note of caution for Sierra Leone since the cumulative number of cases could reach as high as 18,000, and the number of deaths might exceed 5,000, by early March 2015. However, by processing the reported data of the very last period (December 21, 2014-January 18, 2015), we obtained more optimistic estimates indicative of a remission of

  1. Can donated media placements reach intended audiences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Crystale Purvis; Gelb, Cynthia A; Chu, Jennifer; Polonec, Lindsey

    2013-09-01

    Donated media placements for public service announcements (PSAs) can be difficult to secure, and may not always reach intended audiences. Strategies used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Screen for Life: National Colorectal Cancer Action Campaign (SFL) to obtain donated media placements include producing a diverse mix of high-quality PSAs, co-branding with state and tribal health agencies, securing celebrity involvement, monitoring media trends to identify new distribution opportunities, and strategically timing the release of PSAs. To investigate open-ended recall of PSAs promoting colorectal cancer screening, CDC conducted 12 focus groups in three U.S. cities with men and women either nearing age 50 years, when screening is recommended to begin, or aged 50-75 years who were not in compliance with screening guidelines. In most focus groups, multiple participants recalled exposure to PSAs promoting colorectal cancer screening, and most of these individuals reported having seen SFL PSAs on television, in transit stations, or on the sides of public buses. Some participants reported exposure to SFL PSAs without prompting from the moderator, as they explained how they learned about the disease. Several participants reported learning key campaign messages from PSAs, including that colorectal cancer screening should begin at age 50 years and screening can find polyps so they can be removed before becoming cancerous. Donated media placements can reach and educate mass audiences, including millions of U.S. adults who have not been screened appropriately for colorectal cancer.

  2. Efficacy of REACH Forgiveness across cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yin; Worthington, Everett L; Griffin, Brandon J; Greer, Chelsea L; Opare-Henaku, Annabella; Lavelock, Caroline R; Hook, Joshua N; Ho, Man Yee; Muller, Holly

    2014-09-01

    This study investigates the efficacy of the 6-hour REACH Forgiveness intervention among culturally diverse undergraduates. Female undergraduates (N = 102) and foreign extraction (46.2%) and domestic (43.8%) students in the United States were randomly assigned to immediate treatment or waitlist conditions. Treatment efficacy and the effect of culture on treatment response were assessed using measures of emotional and decisional forgiveness across 3 time periods. Students in the treatment condition reported greater improvement in emotional forgiveness, but not decisional forgiveness, relative to those in the waitlist condition. Gains were maintained at a 1-week follow-up. Although culture did not moderate the effect of treatment, a main effect of culture on emotional forgiveness and marginally significant interaction effect of culture on decisional forgiveness were found. The REACH Forgiveness intervention was efficacious for college students from different cultural backgrounds when conducted in the United States. However, some evidence may warrant development of culturally adapted forgiveness interventions. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Against proportional shortfall as a priority-setting principle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altmann, Samuel

    2018-05-01

    As the demand for healthcare rises, so does the need for priority setting in healthcare. In this paper, I consider a prominent priority-setting principle: proportional shortfall. My purpose is to argue that proportional shortfall, as a principle, should not be adopted. My key criticism is that proportional shortfall fails to consider past health.Proportional shortfall is justified as it supposedly balances concern for prospective health while still accounting for lifetime health, even though past health is deemed irrelevant. Accounting for this lifetime perspective means that the principle may indirectly consider past health by accounting for how far an individual is from achieving a complete, healthy life. I argue that proportional shortfall does not account for this lifetime perspective as it fails to incorporate the fair innings argument as originally claimed, undermining its purported justification.I go on to demonstrate that the case for ignoring past health is weak, and argue that past health is at least sometimes relevant for priority-setting decisions. Specifically, when an individual's past health has a direct impact on current or future health, and when one individual has enjoyed significantly more healthy life years than another.Finally, I demonstrate that by ignoring past illnesses, even those entirely unrelated to their current illness, proportional shortfall can lead to instances of double jeopardy, a highly problematic implication. These arguments give us reason to reject proportional shortfall. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  4. The Genetic Diversity and Evolution of HIV-1 Subtype B Epidemic in Puerto Rico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo López

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available HIV-1 epidemics in Caribbean countries, including Puerto Rico, have been reported to be almost exclusively associated with the subtype B virus (HIV-1B. However, while HIV infections associated with other clades have been only sporadically reported, no organized data exist to accurately assess the prevalence of non-subtype B HIV-1 infection. We analyzed the nucleotide sequence data of the HIV pol gene associated with HIV isolates from Puerto Rican patients. The sequences (n = 945 were obtained from our “HIV Genotyping” test file, which has been generated over a period of 14 years (2001–2014. REGA subtyping tool found the following subtypes: B (90%, B-like (3%, B/D recombinant (6%, and D/B recombinant (0.6%. Though there were fewer cases, the following subtypes were also found (in the given proportions: A1B (0.3%, BF1 (0.2%, subtype A (01-AE (0.1%, subtype A (A2 (0.1%, subtype F (12BF (0.1%, CRF-39 BF-like (0.1%, and others (0.1%. Some of the recombinants were identified as early as 2001. Although the HIV epidemic in Puerto Rico is primarily associated with HIV-1B virus, our analysis uncovered the presence of other subtypes. There was no indication of subtype C, which has been predominantly associated with heterosexual transmission in other parts of the world.

  5. The Genetic Diversity and Evolution of HIV-1 Subtype B Epidemic in Puerto Rico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Pablo; Rivera-Amill, Vanessa; Rodríguez, Nayra; Vargas, Freddie; Yamamura, Yasuhiro

    2015-12-23

    HIV-1 epidemics in Caribbean countries, including Puerto Rico, have been reported to be almost exclusively associated with the subtype B virus (HIV-1B). However, while HIV infections associated with other clades have been only sporadically reported, no organized data exist to accurately assess the prevalence of non-subtype B HIV-1 infection. We analyzed the nucleotide sequence data of the HIV pol gene associated with HIV isolates from Puerto Rican patients. The sequences (n = 945) were obtained from our "HIV Genotyping" test file, which has been generated over a period of 14 years (2001-2014). REGA subtyping tool found the following subtypes: B (90%), B-like (3%), B/D recombinant (6%), and D/B recombinant (0.6%). Though there were fewer cases, the following subtypes were also found (in the given proportions): A1B (0.3%), BF1 (0.2%), subtype A (01-AE) (0.1%), subtype A (A2) (0.1%), subtype F (12BF) (0.1%), CRF-39 BF-like (0.1%), and others (0.1%). Some of the recombinants were identified as early as 2001. Although the HIV epidemic in Puerto Rico is primarily associated with HIV-1B virus, our analysis uncovered the presence of other subtypes. There was no indication of subtype C, which has been predominantly associated with heterosexual transmission in other parts of the world.

  6. Epidemiological bridging by injection drug use drives an early HIV epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Volz

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The risk of acquiring sexually transmitted infections (STIs depends on individual behavior and the network of risky partnerships in which an individual participates. STI epidemics often spread rapidly and primarily among individuals central to transmission networks; and thus they often defy the mass-action principle since incidence is not proportional to the infectious fraction of the population. Here, we estimate the contact network structure for an Atlanta, Georgia community with heterogeneous sexual and drug-related risk behaviors and build a detailed transmission model for HIV through this population. We show that accurate estimation of epidemic incidence requires careful measurement and inclusion of diverse factors including concurrency (having multiple partners, the duration of partnerships, serosorting (preference for partners with matching disease state, and heterogeneity in the number and kinds of partners. In the focal population, we find that injection drug users (IDUs do not directly cause many secondary infections; yet they bridge the heterosexual and men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM populations and are thereby indirectly responsible for extensive transmission. Keywords: HIV, Networks, Serosorting, Concurrency

  7. Societal learning in epidemics: intervention effectiveness during the 2003 SARS outbreak in Singapore.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M Drake

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Rapid response to outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases is impeded by uncertain diagnoses and delayed communication. Understanding the effect of inefficient response is a potentially important contribution of epidemic theory. To develop this understanding we studied societal learning during emerging outbreaks wherein patient removal accelerates as information is gathered and disseminated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed an extension of a standard outbreak model, the simple stochastic epidemic, which accounts for societal learning. We obtained expressions for the expected outbreak size and the distribution of epidemic duration. We found that rapid learning noticeably affects the final outbreak size even when learning exhibits diminishing returns (relaxation. As an example, we estimated the learning rate for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS in Singapore. Evidence for relaxation during the first eight weeks of the outbreak was inconclusive. We estimated that if societal learning had occurred at half the actual rate, the expected final size of the outbreak would have reached nearly 800 cases, more than three times the observed number of infections. By contrast, the expected outbreak size for societal learning twice as effective was 116 cases. CONCLUSION: These results show that the rate of societal learning can greatly affect the final size of disease outbreaks, justifying investment in early warning systems and attentiveness to disease outbreak by both government authorities and the public. We submit that the burden of emerging infections, including the risk of a global pandemic, could be efficiently reduced by improving procedures for rapid detection of outbreaks, alerting public health officials, and aggressively educating the public at the start of an outbreak.

  8. Concern about the Expanding Prescription Drug Epidemic: A Survey of Licensed Prescribers and Dispensers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, R Eric; Reed, Nia; Carnes, Neal; Kooreman, Harold E

    2016-01-01

    Prescription drug misuse and abuse has reached epidemic levels in the U.S., and stands as a leading cause of death. As the primary gatekeepers to the medications contributing to this epidemic, it is critical to understand the views of licensed health care professionals. In this study, we examine health care professionals' concern regarding prescription drug abuse in their communities and the impact their concern has had on their prescribing and dispensing practices. An online survey of licensed health care providers. Conducted in Indiana. This study was a state-wide evaluation of Indiana's prescription drug monitoring program. The questionnaire asked respondents how concerned they were about prescription drug abuse in their community. Variation in the level of concern was examined using ordinary least squares regression and information about the respondents' demographic background and clinical experience. In addition, we used logistic regression to examine whether concern was associated with changing prescribing and/or dispensing behavior. The majority of providers indicated they were "moderately" or "extremely concerned" about prescription drug abuse in their communities. The level of concern, however, varied significantly by profession, with pharmacists, physicians, nurse practitioners/physician assistants being more concerned than dentists. Additional analyses indicate that providers with higher levels of concern were those who also reported recently changing their prescribing and/or dispensing behavior. The voluntary nature and geographical focus of the study limits the generalizability of the findings. Concern about prescription drug abuse is generally high across the major health care professions; however, a significant minority of providers, particularly among dentists, expressed little or no concern about the epidemic. Increasing health care providers' general level of concern about prescription drug abuse may be an effective public health tool for

  9. The principle of proportionality revisited: interpretations and applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermerén, Göran

    2012-11-01

    The principle of proportionality is used in many different contexts. Some of these uses and contexts are first briefly indicated. This paper focusses on the use of this principle as a moral principle. I argue that under certain conditions the principle of proportionality is helpful as a guide in decision-making. But it needs to be clarified and to be used with some flexibility as a context-dependent principle. Several interpretations of the principle are distinguished, using three conditions as a starting point: importance of objective, relevance of means, and most favourable option. The principle is then tested against an example, which suggests that a fourth condition, focusing on non-excessiveness, needs to be added. I will distinguish between three main interpretations of the principle, some primarily with uses in research ethics, others with uses in other areas of bioethics, for instance in comparisons of therapeutic means and ends. The relations between the principle of proportionality and the precautionary principle are explored in the following section. It is concluded that the principles are different and may even clash. In the next section the principle of proportionality is applied to some medical examples drawn from research ethics and bioethics. In concluding, the status of the principle of proportionality as a moral principle is discussed. What has been achieved so far and what remains to be done is finally summarized.

  10. Riparian Vegetation Mapping Along the Hanford Reach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    FOGWELL, T.W.

    2003-07-11

    During the biological survey and inventory of the Hanford Site conducted in the mid-1990s (1995 and 1996), preliminary surveys of the riparian vegetation were conducted along the Hanford Reach. These preliminary data were reported to The Nature Conservancy (TNC), but were not included in any TNC reports to DOE or stakeholders. During the latter part of FY2001, PNNL contracted with SEE Botanical, the parties that performed the original surveys in the mid 1990s, to complete the data summaries and mapping associated with the earlier survey data. Those data sets were delivered to PNNL and the riparian mapping by vegetation type for the Hanford Reach is being digitized during the first quarter of FY2002. These mapping efforts provide the information necessary to create subsequent spatial data layers to describe the riparian zone according to plant functional types (trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, forbs). Quantification of the riparian zone by vegetation types is important to a number of DOE'S priority issues including modeling contaminant transport and uptake in the near-riverine environment and the determination of ecological risk. This work included the identification of vegetative zones along the Reach by changes in dominant plant species covering the shoreline from just to the north of the 300 Area to China Bar near Vernita. Dominant and indicator species included Agropyron dasytachyudA. smithii, Apocynum cannabinum, Aristida longiseta, Artemisia campestris ssp. borealis var scouleriana, Artemisa dracunculus, Artemisia lindleyana, Artemisia tridentata, Bromus tectorum, Chrysothamnus nauseosus, Coreopsis atkinsoniana. Eleocharis palustris, Elymus cinereus, Equisetum hyemale, Eriogonum compositum, Juniperus trichocarpa, Phalaris arundinacea, Poa compressa. Salk exigua, Scirpus acutus, Solidago occidentalis, Sporobolus asper,and Sporobolus cryptandrus. This letter report documents the data received, the processing by PNNL staff, and additional data gathered in FY

  11. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel G. Muñoz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015–2016 zika virus (ZIKV epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  12. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  13. Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

  14. Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

    2017-01-01

    Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

  16. The global dynamics for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yiliang; Wen, Buyu; Teng, Zhidong

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation which is as an important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. It is assumed that the stochastic effects manifest themselves mainly as fluctuation in the transmission coefficient, the death rate and the proportional coefficient of the isolation of infective. It is shown that the extinction and persistence in the mean of the model are determined by a threshold value R0S . That is, if R0S 1, then the disease is stochastic persistent in the means with probability one. Furthermore, the existence of a unique stationary distribution is discussed, and the sufficient conditions are established by using the Lyapunov function method. Finally, some numerical examples are carried out to confirm the analytical results.

  17. Reach and get capability in a computing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchard, Ann M [Albuquerque, NM; Osbourn, Gordon C [Albuquerque, NM

    2012-06-05

    A reach and get technique includes invoking a reach command from a reach location within a computing environment. A user can then navigate to an object within the computing environment and invoke a get command on the object. In response to invoking the get command, the computing environment is automatically navigated back to the reach location and the object copied into the reach location.

  18. Impact of measles supplementary immunization activities on reaching children missed by routine programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portnoy, Allison; Jit, Mark; Helleringer, Stéphane; Verguet, Stéphane

    2018-01-02

    Measles supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) are vaccination campaigns that supplement routine vaccination programs with a recommended second dose opportunity to children of different ages regardless of their previous history of measles vaccination. They are conducted every 2-4 years and over a few weeks in many low- and middle-income countries. While SIAs have high vaccination coverage, it is unclear whether they reach the children who miss their routine measles vaccine dose. Determining who is reached by SIAs is vital to understanding their effectiveness, as well as measure progress towards measles control. We examined SIAs in low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2014 using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Conditional on a child's routine measles vaccination status, we examined whether children participated in the most recent measles SIA. The average proportion of zero-dose children (no previous routine measles vaccination defined as no vaccination date before the SIA) reached by SIAs across 14 countries was 66%, ranging from 28% in São Tomé and Príncipe to 91% in Nigeria. However, when also including all children with routine measles vaccination data, this proportion decreased to 12% and to 58% when imputing data for children with vaccination reported by the mother and vaccination marks on the vaccination card across countries. Overall, the proportions of zero-dose children reached by SIAs declined with increasing household wealth. Some countries appeared to reach a higher proportion of zero-dose children using SIAs than others, with proportions reached varying according to the definition of measles vaccination (e.g., vaccination dates on the vaccination card, vaccination marks on the vaccination card, and/or self-reported data). This suggests that some countries could improve their targeting of SIAs to children who miss other measles vaccine opportunities. Across all countries, SIAs played an important role in reaching

  19. Unified communication to reach vulnerable mothers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tezcan, B; Von Rege, I; Henkson, H; Oteng-Ntim, E

    2011-01-01

    The feasibility of using a mobile text to reach vulnerable patient groups was assessed in this study. A total of 121 pregnant or postnatal women were randomly asked to complete a questionnaire. The questionnaire was given to them in the antenatal clinic, postnatal ward, antenatal ward or in the day assessment unit at St Thomas' Hospital, London. The forms were collected and analysed using an Excel database. The results of this survey show that mobile technology is readily available for 97% of the obstetric population. In mothers from vulnerable groups and in mothers from deprived areas, 61% possessed 3rd generation mobile technology. The majority of mothers surveyed wanted their care supplemented by the use of their mobile phones.

  20. Validity of an Interactive Functional Reach Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galen, Sujay S; Pardo, Vicky; Wyatt, Douglas; Diamond, Andrew; Brodith, Victor; Pavlov, Alex

    2015-08-01

    Videogaming platforms such as the Microsoft (Redmond, WA) Kinect(®) are increasingly being used in rehabilitation to improve balance performance and mobility. These gaming platforms do not have built-in clinical measures that offer clinically meaningful data. We have now developed software that will enable the Kinect sensor to assess a patient's balance using an interactive functional reach test (I-FRT). The aim of the study was to test the concurrent validity of the I-FRT and to establish the feasibility of implementing the I-FRT in a clinical setting. The concurrent validity of the I-FRT was tested among 20 healthy adults (mean age, 25.8±3.4 years; 14 women). The Functional Reach Test (FRT) was measured simultaneously by both the Kinect sensor using the I-FRT software and the Optotrak Certus(®) 3D motion-capture system (Northern Digital Inc., Waterloo, ON, Canada). The feasibility of implementing the I-FRT in a clinical setting was assessed by performing the I-FRT in 10 participants with mild balance impairments recruited from the outpatient physical therapy clinic (mean age, 55.8±13.5 years; four women) and obtaining their feedback using a NASA Task Load Index (NASA-TLX) questionnaire. There was moderate to good agreement between FRT measures made by the two measurement systems. The greatest agreement between the two measurement system was found with the Kinect sensor placed at a distance of 2.5 m [intraclass correlation coefficient (2,k)=0.786; PNASA/TLX questionnaire. FRT measures made using the Kinect sensor I-FRT software provides a valid clinical measure that can be used with the gaming platforms.

  1. A reduced feedback proportional fair multiuser scheduling scheme

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad

    2011-12-01

    Multiuser switched-diversity scheduling schemes were recently proposed in order to overcome the heavy feedback requirements of conventional opportunistic scheduling schemes by applying a threshold-based, distributed and ordered scheduling mechanism. A slight reduction in the prospected multiuser diversity gains is an acceptable trade-off for great savings in terms of required channel-state-information feedback messages. In this work, we propose a novel proportional fair multiuser switched-diversity scheduling scheme and we demonstrate that it can be optimized using a practical and distributed method to obtain the per-user feedback thresholds. We demonstrate by numerical examples that our reduced feedback proportional fair scheduler operates within 0.3 bits/sec/Hz from the achievable rates by the conventional full feedback proportional fair scheduler in Rayleigh fading conditions. © 2011 IEEE.

  2. Prospective Teachers Proportional Reasoning and Presumption of Student Work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mujiyem Sapti

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to describe the proportional reasoning of prospective teachers and their predictions about students' answers. Subjects were 4 prospective teacher  7th semester Department of Mathematics Education, Muhammadiyah University of Purworejo. Proportional reasoning task used to obtain research data. Subjects were asked to explain their reasoning and write predictions of student completion. Data was taken on October 15th, 2014. Interviews were conducted after the subjects completed the task and recorded with audio media. The research data were subject written work and interview transcripts. Data were analyzed using qualitative analysis techniques. In solving the proportional reasoning task, subjects using the cross product. However, they understand the meaning of the cross product. Subject also could predict students' reasoning on the matter.

  3. Proton-recoil proportional counter tests at TREAT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fink, C.L.; Eichholz, J.J.; Burrows, D.R.; DeVolpi, A.

    1979-01-01

    A methane filled proton-recoil proportional counter will be used as a fission neutron detector in the fast-neutron hodoscope. To provide meaningful fuel-motion information the proportional counter should have: a linear response over a wide range of reactor powers background ratio (the number of high energy neutrons detected must be maximized relative to low energy neutrons, and gamma ray sensitivity must be kept small); and a detector efficiency for fission neutrons above 1 MeV of approximately 1%. In addition, it is desirable that the detector and the associated amplifier/discriminator be capable of operating at counting rates in excess of 500 kHz. This paper reports on tests that were conducted on several proportional counters at the TREAT reactor

  4. Multiaxial low cycle fatigue life under non-proportional loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, Takamoto; Sakane, Masao; Ohsuga, Kazuki

    2013-01-01

    A simple and clear method of evaluating stress and strain ranges under non-proportional multiaxial loading where principal directions of stress and strain are changed during a cycle is needed for assessing multiaxial fatigue. This paper proposes a simple method of determining the principal stress and strain ranges and the severity of non-proportional loading with defining the rotation angles of the maximum principal stress and strain in a three dimensional stress and strain space. This study also discusses properties of multiaxial low cycle fatigue lives for various materials fatigued under non-proportional loadings and shows an applicability of a parameter proposed by author for multiaxial low cycle fatigue life evaluation

  5. Extending beyond Policy: Reaching UNAIDS’ Three “90”s in Malawi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zengani Chirwa

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Malawi, like other countries with a generalized HIV epidemic, is striving to reach the ambitious targets set by UNAIDS known as the three 90’s for testing, provision of antiretroviral therapy and viral suppression. Assisted by Malawi’s progressive policies on HIV/AIDS, it appears possible that Malawi will attain these targets, but only by employing innovative program approaches to service delivery which help fill policy gaps. This article describes how a dedicated cadre of layperson testers and HIV-positive peers appears to have helped attain increases in HIV and viral load testing and retention in care in four districts in Malawi, and situates these innovations in a policy framework analysis.

  6. Flow proportional sampling of low level liquid effluent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colley, D.; Jenkins, R.

    1989-01-01

    A flow proportional sampler for use on low level radioactive liquid effluent has been developed for installation on all CEGB nuclear power stations. The sampler, operates by drawing effluent continuously from the main effluent pipeline, through a sampler loop and returning it to the pipeline. The effluent in this loop is sampled by taking small, frequent aliquots using a linear acting shuttle valve. The frequency of operation of this valve is controlled by a flowmeter installed in the effluent line; sampling rate being directly proportional to effluent flowrate. (author)

  7. The proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Frank; Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    We suggest an estimator for the proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks data. The key advantage of this model is that the regression parameters have the simple and useful odds ratio interpretation. The model has been considered by many authors, but it is rarely used...... in practice due to the lack of reliable estimation procedures. We suggest such procedures and show that their performance improve considerably on existing methods. We also suggest a goodness-of-fit test for the proportional odds assumption. We derive the large sample properties and provide estimators...

  8. Neutron dosimetry using proportional counters with tissue equivalent walls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerviller, H. de

    1965-01-01

    The author reminds the calculation method of the neutron absorbed dose in a material and deduce of it the conditions what this material have to fill to be equivalent to biological tissues. Various proportional counters are mode with walls in new tissue equivalent material and filled with various gases. The multiplication factor and neutron energy response of these counters are investigated and compared with those obtained with ethylene lined polyethylene counters. The conditions of working of such proportional counters for neutron dosimetry in energy range 10 -2 to 15 MeV are specified. (author) [fr

  9. Gas scintillation proportional counters for x-ray synchrotron applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A.; Bavdaz, M.

    1992-01-01

    Gas scintillation proportional counters (GSPCs) as x-ray detectors provide some advantages and disadvantages compared with proportional counters. In this paper the various configurations of xenon filled GSPC are described including both imaging and nonimaging devices. It is intended that this work be used to configure a GSPC for a particular application and predict its general performance characteristics. The general principles of operation are described and the performance characteristics are then separately considered. A high performance, imaging, driftless GSPC is described in which a single intermediate window is used between the PMT and gas cell

  10. Avalanche localization and its effects in proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, J.; Okuno, H.; Walenta, A.H.

    1977-11-01

    Avalanche development around the anode wire in a gas proportional counter is investigated. In the region of proportional gas amplification, the avalanche is found to be well localized on one side of the anode wire, where the electrons arrive along the field lines from the point of primary ionization. Induced signals on electrodes surrounding the anode wire are used to measure the azimuthal position of the avalanche on the anode wire. Practical applications of the phenomena such as left-right assignment in drift chambers and measurement of the angular direction of the primary ionization electrons drifting towards the anode wire are discussed

  11. A case for critical ethnography: rethinking the early years of the AIDS epidemic in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fassin, Didier

    2013-12-01

    The epidemic of AIDS in South Africa has been characterized not only by its rapid progression but also its impassioned controversies. Retrospectively examining a long-term anthropological project and discussing some reactions it elicited, the paper proposes a defense and illustration of a critical ethnography at three moments of the research. Ethnography is first discussed as fieldworks, proposing an alternative to the horizontal multi-sited approach via a vertical multi-layered method using various scales and locations, and thus connecting the disease endured by patients in townships and former homelands with the heated debates in scientific and political forums: this procedure substitutes a political economy of the disease for its cultural and behavioral interpretations. Ethnography is then discussed as writing, suggesting acknowledgment of the social intelligence of the agents as well as the need for a scientific distance: this principle allows the articulation of the objective historical condition of the individuals and their subjective experience of history, both revealed in the development of the epidemic. Ultimately ethnography is considered from the perspective of its afterlife, that is, the continuous process of its translation by readers and commentators, on the one hand, by the author trying to reach beyond the boundaries of the academic realm, on the other, the work of anthropology appearing as a living object open to public conversation and consequently a resource for knowledge and action. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. [Chronic non-communicable diseases: a global epidemic of the 21st century].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Karl; Gudnason, Vilmundur

    2012-11-01

    Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the cause of 86% of all deaths in the EU and 65% of deaths worldwide. A third of these deaths occur before the age of sixty years. The NCDs affect 40% of the adult population of the EU and two thirds of the population reaching retirement age suffers from two or more NCDs. The NCDs are a global epidemic challenging economic growth in most countries. According to the WHO, NCDs are one of the major threats to worldwide social and economic development in the 21st century. The problem is of great concern to the international community and was discussed at a High level meeting at the UN General Assembly in September 2011. In this paper we review the epidemic of NCDs both from a national and international perspective. We discuss the causes and consequences. In a second review paper we reflect on the political health policy issues raised by the international community in order to respond to the problem. These issues will become a major challenge for social and economic development in most countries of the world in the coming decades.

  13. Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liping; Wang, Li; Zheng, Yanling; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Xueliang; Zheng, Yujian

    2017-03-04

    Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1) model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1)), and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1)), in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)₄ model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1) model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends.

  14. Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Zhang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1 model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1, and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1, in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1(1,1,04 model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1 model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends.

  15. Economic interpretation of environmental flow regime downstream diverted river reaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorla, Lorenzo; Perona, Paolo

    2013-04-01

    Water demand for hydropower production is increasing together with the consciousness of the importance of riparian ecosystems and biodiversity. Some Cantons in Switzerland and other alpine regions in Austria and in Sud Tirol (Italy) started replacing the inadequate concept of Minimum Flow Requirement (MFR) with a dynamic one, by releasing a fix percentage of the total inflow (e.g. 25 %) to the environment. In the same direction Perona et al. (in revision) mathematically formulated a method particularly suitable for small hydropower plants, handling the environment as a non-traditional water use, which competes with exploitators. This model uses the Principle of Equal Marginal Utility (PEMU) as optimal water allocation rule for generating like-natural flow releases while maximizing the aggregate economic benefit of all uses (Gorla and Perona, in revision). In this paper we show how redistribution policies can be interpreted in terms of PEMU, particularly we focus at traditional water repartition rules, such as the MFR, but also to dynamic ones like proportional redistribution. For the first case we show both ecological and economical arguments suggesting its inappropriateness; in the second case we highlight explicit points of strength and weakness, and suggest ways of improvement. For example the flow release allocation rule can be changed from inflow-independent ones (e.g., proportional redistribution), to inflow-dependent ones (e.g., non-proportional). The latters, having fewer constraints, can generally lead to better both ecological and economical performances. A class of simple functions, based on the PEMU, is then proposed as a suitable solution in run-of-river or small hydropower plants. Each water repartition policy underlies an ecosystem monetization. We explicit the value of the ecosystem health underlying each policy by means of the PEMU under a few assumptions, and discuss how the theoretic efficient redistribution law obtained by our approach is

  16. Networks of conforming or nonconforming individuals tend to reach satisfactory decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramazi, Pouria; Riehl, James; Cao, Ming

    2016-11-15

    Binary decisions of agents coupled in networks can often be classified into two types: "coordination," where an agent takes an action if enough neighbors are using that action, as in the spread of social norms, innovations, and viral epidemics, and "anticoordination," where too many neighbors taking a particular action causes an agent to take the opposite action, as in traffic congestion, crowd dispersion, and division of labor. Both of these cases can be modeled using linear-threshold-based dynamics, and a fundamental question is whether the individuals in such networks are likely to reach decisions with which they are satisfied. We show that, in the coordination case, and perhaps more surprisingly, also in the anticoordination case, the agents will indeed always tend to reach satisfactory decisions, that is, the network will almost surely reach an equilibrium state. This holds for every network topology and every distribution of thresholds, for both asynchronous and partially synchronous decision-making updates. These results reveal that irregular network topology, population heterogeneity, and partial synchrony are not sufficient to cause cycles or nonconvergence in linear-threshold dynamics; rather, other factors such as imitation or the coexistence of coordinating and anticoordinating agents must play a role.

  17. Impact of long-term civil disorders and wars on the trajectory of HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gisselquist, David

    2004-08-01

    From the mid-1970s, seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa have experienced civil disorders and wars lasting for at least 10 years. In two-- Sierra Leone during 1991-2002, and Somalia from 1988 and continuing--adult HIV prevalence remained below 1%. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, HIV prevalence appears to have stabilised during post-1991 civil disorder and war. Limited information from Angola (civil war 1975 -2002) and Liberia (civil disorder and war from 1989 and continuing) suggests low HIV prevalence. Mozambique's HIV prevalence was near 1% after its 1975 - 1992 civil war, but increased dramatically in the first post-war decade. Across African countries with long-term wars, HIV seems to have spread more slowly than in most neighbouring countries at peace. This evidence contributes to the ongoing debate about the factors that explain differential epidemic trajectories, a debate which is crucial to the design of HIV prevention programmes. One possible explanation for slow epidemic growth in wartime is that unsterile health care accounts for an important proportion of HIV transmission during peacetime, but much less when wars disrupt health services. However, other explanations are also possible. The roles of sex and blood exposures in HIV epidemics in war and peace await empirical determination.

  18. Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

    2007-10-01

    The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

  19. Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

    2017-02-01

    The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

  20. Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

    2014-11-21

    On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.