WorldWideScience

Sample records for quantitative risk assessmetn

  1. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  2. Are risks quantitatively determinable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buetzer, P.

    1985-01-01

    ''Chemical risks'' can only be determined with accurate figures in a few extraordinary cases. The difficulties lie, as has been shown by the example of the Flixborough catastrophe, mostly in the determination of the probabilities of occurrence. With a rough semiquantitative estimate of the potential hazards and the corresponding probabilities we can predict the risks with astonishing accuracy. Statistical data from incidents in the chemical industry are very useful, and they also show that ''chemical catastrophes'' are only to a very small extent initiated by uncontrolled chemical reactions. (orig.) [de

  3. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  4. Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

    CERN Document Server

    Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling...

  5. Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Lynne P.

    2011-01-01

    Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

  6. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  7. Quantitative Identification of Construction Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kasprowicz T.

    2017-01-01

    Risks pertaining to construction work relate to situations in which various events may randomly change the duration and cost of the project or worsen its quality. Because of possible significant changes of random events, favorable, moderate, and difficult conditions of construction work are considered. It is the first stage of the construction risk analysis. The probabilistic parameters of construction are identified and described by using the design characteristics model of the structure and...

  8. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  9. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  10. Development of a quantitative risk standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Temme, M.I.

    1982-01-01

    IEEE Working Group SC-5.4 is developing a quantitative risk standard for LWR plant design and operation. The paper describes the Working Group's conclusions on significant issues, including the scope of the standard, the need to define the process (i.e., PRA calculation) for meeting risk criteria, the need for PRA quality requirements and the importance of distinguishing standards from goals. The paper also describes the Working Group's approach to writing this standard

  11. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  12. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  13. Quantitative risk in radiation protection standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, V.P.

    1978-01-01

    The bases for developing quantitative assessment of exposure risks in the human being, and the several problems that accompany the assessment and introduction of the risk of exposure to high and low LET radiation into radiation protection, will be evaluated. The extension of the pioneering radiation protection philosophies to the control of other hazardous agents that cannot be eliminated from the environment will be discussed, as will the serious misunderstandings and misuse of concepts and facts that have inevitably surrounded the application to one agent alone, of the protection philosophy that must in time be applied to a broad spectrum of potentially hazardous agents. (orig.) [de

  14. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  15. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  16. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  17. Quantitative risk in radiation protection standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, V.P.

    1979-01-01

    Although the overall aim of radiobiology is to understand the biological effects of radiation, it also has the implied practical purpose of developing rational measures for the control of radiation exposure in man. The emphasis in this presentation is to show that the enormous effort expended over the years to develop quantitative dose-effect relationships in biochemical and cellular systems, animals, and human beings now seems to be paying off. The pieces appear to be falling into place, and a framework is evolving to utilize these data. Specifically, quantitative risk assessments will be discussed in terms of the cellular, animal, and human data on which they are based; their use in the development of radiation protection standards; and their present and potential impact and meaning in relation to the quantity dose equivalent and its special unit, the rem

  18. Quantitative risk assessment of drinking water contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cothern, C.R.; Coniglio, W.A.; Marcus, W.L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of criteria and standards for the regulation of drinking water contaminants involves a variety of processes, one of which is risk estimation. This estimation process, called quantitative risk assessment, involves combining data on the occurrence of the contaminant in drinking water and its toxicity. The human exposure to a contaminant can be estimated from occurrence data. Usually the toxicity or number of health effects per concentration level is estimated from animal bioassay studies using the multistage model. For comparison, other models will be used including the Weibull, probit, logit and quadratic ones. Because exposure and toxicity data are generally incomplete, assumptions need to be made and this generally results in a wide range of certainty in the estimates. This range can be as wide as four to six orders of magnitude in the case of the volatile organic compounds in drinking water and a factor of four to five for estimation of risk due to radionuclides in drinking water. As examples of the differences encountered in risk assessment of drinking water contaminants, discussions are presented on benzene, lead, radon and alachlor. The lifetime population risk estimates for these contaminants are, respectively, in the ranges of: <1 - 3000, <1 - 8000, 2000-40,000 and <1 - 80. 11 references, 1 figure, 1 table

  19. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  20. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  1. Quantitative risk analysis of urban flooding in lowland areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.

    2010-01-01

    Urban flood risk analyses suffer from a lack of quantitative historical data on flooding incidents. Data collection takes place on an ad hoc basis and is usually restricted to severe events. The resulting data deficiency renders quantitative assessment of urban flood risks uncertain. The study

  2. Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khorsandi, Jahon; Aven, Terje

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of complex engineering systems are based on numerous assumptions and expert judgments, as there is limited information available for supporting the analysis. In addition to sensitivity analyses, the concept of assumption deviation risk has been suggested as a means for explicitly considering the risk related to inaccuracies and deviations in the assumptions, which can significantly impact the results of the QRAs. However, challenges remain for its practical implementation, considering the number of assumptions and magnitude of deviations to be considered. This paper presents an approach for integrating an assumption deviation risk analysis as part of QRAs. The approach begins with identifying the safety objectives for which the QRA aims to support, and then identifies critical assumptions with respect to ensuring the objectives are met. Key issues addressed include the deviations required to violate the safety objectives, the uncertainties related to the occurrence of such events, and the strength of knowledge supporting the assessments. Three levels of assumptions are considered, which include assumptions related to the system's structural and operational characteristics, the effectiveness of the established barriers, as well as the consequence analysis process. The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation. - Highlights: • An approach for assessing the risk of deviations in QRA assumptions is presented. • Critical deviations and uncertainties related to their occurrence are addressed. • The analysis promotes critical thinking about the foundation and results of QRAs. • The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation.

  3. Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manen, Sipke E. van; Brinkhuis, Martine

    2005-01-01

    In the Netherlands, the design of dikes and other water retaining structures is based on an acceptable probability (frequency) of overtopping. In 1993 a new safety concept was introduced based on total flood risk. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequences. In recent years advanced tools have become available to calculate the actual flood risk of a polder. This paper describes the application of these tools to an existing lowland river area. The complete chain of calculations necessary to estimate the risk of flooding of a polder (or dike ring) is presented. The difficulties in applying the present day tools and the largest uncertainties in the calculations are shown

  4. Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manen, Sipke E. van [Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Bouwdienst Rijkswaterstaat, Griffioenlaan 2, Utrecht 3526 (Netherlands)]. E-mail: s.e.vmanen@bwd.rws.minvenw.nl; Brinkhuis, Martine [Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Delft (Netherlands)

    2005-12-01

    In the Netherlands, the design of dikes and other water retaining structures is based on an acceptable probability (frequency) of overtopping. In 1993 a new safety concept was introduced based on total flood risk. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequences. In recent years advanced tools have become available to calculate the actual flood risk of a polder. This paper describes the application of these tools to an existing lowland river area. The complete chain of calculations necessary to estimate the risk of flooding of a polder (or dike ring) is presented. The difficulties in applying the present day tools and the largest uncertainties in the calculations are shown.

  5. Quantitative occupational risk model: Single hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papazoglou, I.A.; Aneziris, O.N.; Bellamy, L.J.; Ale, B.J.M.; Oh, J.

    2017-01-01

    A model for the quantification of occupational risk of a worker exposed to a single hazard is presented. The model connects the working conditions and worker behaviour to the probability of an accident resulting into one of three types of consequence: recoverable injury, permanent injury and death. Working conditions and safety barriers in place to reduce the likelihood of an accident are included. Logical connections are modelled through an influence diagram. Quantification of the model is based on two sources of information: a) number of accidents observed over a period of time and b) assessment of exposure data of activities and working conditions over the same period of time and the same working population. Effectiveness of risk reducing measures affecting the working conditions, worker behaviour and/or safety barriers can be quantified through the effect of these measures on occupational risk. - Highlights: • Quantification of occupational risk from a single hazard. • Influence diagram connects working conditions, worker behaviour and safety barriers. • Necessary data include the number of accidents and the total exposure of worker • Effectiveness of risk reducing measures is quantified through the impact on the risk • An example illustrates the methodology.

  6. On the quantitative definition of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.; Garrick, B.J.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide some suggestions and contributions toward a uniform conceptual/linguistic framework for quantifying and making precise the notion of risk. The concepts and definitions the authors present in this connection have shown themselves to be sturdy and serviceable in practical application to a wide variety of risk situations. They have demonstrated in the courtroom and elsewhere the ability to improve communication and greatly diminish the confusion and controversy that often swirls around public decision making involving risk. They hope therefore with this paper to widen the understanding and adoption of this framework, and to that end adopt a leisurely and tutorial place. In particular, they carefully draw a distinction between ''probability'' and ''frequency.'' Then, using this distinction, they return to the idea of risk, and give a ''second-level'' definition (of risk which generalizes the first-level definition) and is large enough and flexible enough to include at least all the aspects and subtleties of risk that have been encountered in the authors' experience

  7. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  8. Contract farming risks: A quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arkins M Kabungo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to identify the key risks facing each of the stakeholders in the export-focused paprika value chain in Zambia. Although a deterministic cost-benefit analysis indicated that this outgrower scheme would have a very satisfactory net present value (NPV, a Monte Carlo analysis using an integrated financial–economic–stakeholder model identifies a number of risk variables that could make this system unsustainable. The major risks include the variability of the real exchange rate in Zambia; the international price of paprika; and the farm yield rates. This analysis points out that irrigation systems are very important for both stabilising and increasing yields. The analysis also shows the limitations of loan financing for such outgrower arrangements when at the sector level it is difficult or even impossible to mitigate the risks from real exchange rate movements and changes in international commodity prices. This micro-level analysis shows how critical real exchange rate management policies are in achieving sustainability of such export-oriented value chains.

  9. Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

  10. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  11. The use of quantitative risk assessment in HACCP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoornstra, E.; Northolt, M.D.; Notermans, S.; Barendsz, A.W.

    2001-01-01

    During the hazard analysis as part of the development of a HACCP-system, first the hazards (contaminants) have to be identified and then the risks have to be assessed. Often, this assessment is restricted to a qualitative analysis. By using elements of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) the hazard

  12. Quantitative influence of risk factors on blood glucose level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Songjing; Luo, Senlin; Pan, Limin; Zhang, Tiemei; Han, Longfei; Zhao, Haixiu

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to quantitatively analyze the influence of risk factors on the blood glucose level, and to provide theory basis for understanding the characteristics of blood glucose change and confirming the intervention index for type 2 diabetes. The quantitative method is proposed to analyze the influence of risk factors on blood glucose using back propagation (BP) neural network. Ten risk factors are screened first. Then the cohort is divided into nine groups by gender and age. According to the minimum error principle, nine BP models are trained respectively. The quantitative values of the influence of different risk factors on the blood glucose change can be obtained by sensitivity calculation. The experiment results indicate that weight is the leading cause of blood glucose change (0.2449). The second factors are cholesterol, age and triglyceride. The total ratio of these four factors reaches to 77% of the nine screened risk factors. And the sensitivity sequences can provide judgment method for individual intervention. This method can be applied to risk factors quantitative analysis of other diseases and potentially used for clinical practitioners to identify high risk populations for type 2 diabetes as well as other disease.

  13. The profile of quantitative risk indicators in Krsko NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vrbanic, I.; Basic, I.; Bilic-Zabric, T.; Spiler, J.

    2004-01-01

    During the past decade strong initiative was observed which was aimed at incorporating information on risk into various aspects of operation of nuclear power plants. The initiative was observable in activities carried out by regulators as well as utilities and industry. It resulted in establishing the process, or procedure, which is often referred to as integrated decision making or risk informed decision making. In this process, engineering analyses and evaluations that are usually termed traditional and that rely on considerations of safety margins and defense in depth are supplemented by quantitative indicators of risk. Throughout the process, the plant risk was most commonly expressed in terms of likelihood of events involving damage to the reactor core and events with radiological releases to the environment. These became two commonly used quantitative indicators or metrics of plant risk (or, reciprocally, plant safety). They were evaluated for their magnitude (e.g. the expected number of events per specified time interval), as well as their profile (e.g. the types of contributing events). The information for quantitative risk indicators (to be used in risk informing process) is obtained from plant's probabilistic safety analyses or analyses of hazards. It is dependable on issues such as availability of input data or quality of model or analysis. Nuclear power plant Krsko has recently performed Periodic Safety Review, which was a good opportunity to evaluate and integrate the plant specific information on quantitative plant risk indicators and their profile. The paper discusses some aspects of quantitative plant risk profile and its perception.(author)

  14. Quantitative risk stratification in Markov chains with limiting conditional distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, David C; Pollett, Philip K; Weinstein, Milton C

    2009-01-01

    Many clinical decisions require patient risk stratification. The authors introduce the concept of limiting conditional distributions, which describe the equilibrium proportion of surviving patients occupying each disease state in a Markov chain with death. Such distributions can quantitatively describe risk stratification. The authors first establish conditions for the existence of a positive limiting conditional distribution in a general Markov chain and describe a framework for risk stratification using the limiting conditional distribution. They then apply their framework to a clinical example of a treatment indicated for high-risk patients, first to infer the risk of patients selected for treatment in clinical trials and then to predict the outcomes of expanding treatment to other populations of risk. For the general chain, a positive limiting conditional distribution exists only if patients in the earliest state have the lowest combined risk of progression or death. The authors show that in their general framework, outcomes and population risk are interchangeable. For the clinical example, they estimate that previous clinical trials have selected the upper quintile of patient risk for this treatment, but they also show that expanded treatment would weakly dominate this degree of targeted treatment, and universal treatment may be cost-effective. Limiting conditional distributions exist in most Markov models of progressive diseases and are well suited to represent risk stratification quantitatively. This framework can characterize patient risk in clinical trials and predict outcomes for other populations of risk.

  15. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  16. Quantitative Security Risk Assessment of Android Permissions and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Wang , Yang; Zheng , Jun; Sun , Chen; Mukkamala , Srinivas

    2013-01-01

    Part 6: Mobile Computing; International audience; The booming of the Android platform in recent years has attracted the attention of malware developers. However, the permissions-based model used in Android system to prevent the spread of malware, has shown to be ineffective. In this paper, we propose DroidRisk, a framework for quantitative security risk assessment of both Android permissions and applications (apps) based on permission request patterns from benign apps and malware, which aims ...

  17. Modeling Logistic Performance in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijgersberg, H.; Tromp, S.O.; Jacxsens, L.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage

  18. Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, M.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

  19. Quantitative evaluation of risks for individuals in diagnostic radiology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iinuma, T A; Tateno, Y; Hashizume, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)

    1980-05-01

    A method to estimate quantitatively risks of individual patients due to exposure to diagnostic radiation (carcinogenetic and genetic effects of radiation) was proposed on the basis of ICRP-26. Carcinogenetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for each organ per each radiological examination by shortening of average life-expectancy which was calculated from incidence of fetal carcinoma of each organ, latent period of carcinoma, and incidence period of carcinoma. Genetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for gonad per each radiological examination by incidence of genetically severe radiation damages due to parent's exposure and child expectancy rate. Three examples were shown on calculations of risks in the photofluorographic examinations of the stomach and chest, and mammography. The same method of calculation could be applied to the in-vivo nuclear medicine examinations. Further investigation was required to calculate the risks quantitatively for various types of diagnostic procedures using radiation.

  20. Breach Risk Magnitude: A Quantitative Measure of Database Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasnoff, William A

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative methodology is described that provides objective evaluation of the potential for health record system breaches. It assumes that breach risk increases with the number of potential records that could be exposed, while it decreases when more authentication steps are required for access. The breach risk magnitude (BRM) is the maximum value for any system user of the common logarithm of the number of accessible database records divided by the number of authentication steps needed to achieve such access. For a one million record relational database, the BRM varies from 5.52 to 6 depending on authentication protocols. For an alternative data architecture designed specifically to increase security by separately storing and encrypting each patient record, the BRM ranges from 1.3 to 2.6. While the BRM only provides a limited quantitative assessment of breach risk, it may be useful to objectively evaluate the security implications of alternative database organization approaches.

  1. Quantitative evaluation of risks for individuals in diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iinuma, T.A.; Tateno, Yukio; Hashizume, Tadashi

    1980-01-01

    A method to estimate quantitatively risks of individual patients due to exposure to diagnostic radiation (carcinogenetic and genetic effects of radiation) was proposed on the basis of ICRP-26. Carcinogenetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for each organ per each radiological examination by shortening of average life-expectancy which was calculated from incidence of fetal carcinoma of each organ, latent period of carcinoma, and incidence period of carcinoma. Genetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for gonad per each radiological examination by incidence of genetically severe radiation damages due to parent's exposure and child expectancy rate. Three examples were shown on calculations of risks in the photofluorographic examinations of the stomach and chest, and mammography. The same method of calculation could be applied to the in-vivo nuclear medicine examinations. Further investigation was required to calculate the risks quantitatively for various types of diagnostic procedures using radiation. (Tsunoda, M.)

  2. Risk prediction, safety analysis and quantitative probability methods - a caveat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Critchley, O.H.

    1976-01-01

    Views are expressed on the use of quantitative techniques for the determination of value judgements in nuclear safety assessments, hazard evaluation, and risk prediction. Caution is urged when attempts are made to quantify value judgements in the field of nuclear safety. Criteria are given the meaningful application of reliability methods but doubts are expressed about their application to safety analysis, risk prediction and design guidances for experimental or prototype plant. Doubts are also expressed about some concomitant methods of population dose evaluation. The complexities of new designs of nuclear power plants make the problem of safety assessment more difficult but some possible approaches are suggested as alternatives to the quantitative techniques criticized. (U.K.)

  3. New developments in quantitative risk assessment of campylobacteriosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havelaar, Arie; Nauta, Maarten

    meat to ready-to-eat foods is the main pathway of consumer exposure. Undercooking appears to be of minor importance. However, this conclusion may need to be reconsidered in the light of increasing consumption of minced meat preparations. Five QMRA models have been compared in detail, and detailed......Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is now broadly accepted as an important decision support tool in food safety risk management. It has been used to support decision making at the global level (Codex Alimentarius, FAO and WHO), at the European level (European Food Safety Authority...

  4. N reactor individual risk comparison to quantitative nuclear safety goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, O.S.; Rainey, T.E.; Zentner, M.D.

    1990-01-01

    A full-scope level III probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been completed for N reactor, a US Department of Energy (DOE) production reactor located on the Hanford Reservation in the state of Washington. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) provided the technical leadership for this work, using the state-of-the-art NUREG-1150 methodology developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The main objectives of this effort were to assess the risks to the public and to the on-site workers posed by the operation of N reactor, to identify changes to the plant that could reduce the overall risk, and to compare those risks to the proposed NRC and DOE quantitative safety goals. This paper presents the methodology adopted by Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) and SNL for individual health risk evaluation, its results, and a comparison to the NRC safety objectives and the DOE nuclear safety guidelines. The N reactor results, are also compared with the five NUREG-1150 nuclear plants. Only internal events are compared here because external events are not yet reported in the current draft NUREG-1150. This is the first full-scope level III PRA study with a detailed quantitative safety goal comparison performed for DOE production reactors

  5. Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin E Conners

    Full Text Available Increasingly, 'place', including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC, whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1 Participatory mapping; 2 Quantitative interviews; 3 Sex work venue field observation; 4 Time-location-activity diaries; 5 In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions.

  6. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  7. Supply chain risk management of newspaper industry: A quantitative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartika, Viny; Hisjam, Muh.; Sutopo, Wahyudi

    2018-02-01

    The newspaper industry has several distinctive features that make it stands out from other industries. The strict delivery deadline and zero inventory led to a very short time frame for production and distribution. On the other hand, there is pressure from the newsroom to encourage the start of production as slowly as possible in order to enter the news, while there is pressure from production and distribution to start production as early as possible. Supply chain risk management is needed in determining the best strategy for dealing with possible risks in the newspaper industry. In a case study of a newspaper in Surakarta, quantitative approaches are made to the newspaper supply chain risk management by calculating the expected cost of risk based on the magnitude of the impact and the probability of a risk event. From the calculation results obtained that the five risks with the highest value are newspaper delays to the end customer, broken plate, miss print, down machine, and delayed delivery of newspaper content. Then analyzed appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with such risk events.

  8. Quantitative risk analysis of the pipeline GASDUC III - solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Edmilson P.; Bettoni, Izabel Cristina [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this work the quantitative risks analysis to the external public of the Pipeline Cabiunas - REDUC (GASDUC III), with 180 km, linking the municipalities of Macae and Duque de Caxias - RJ was performed by the Companies PETROBRAS and ITSEMAP do Brasil. In addition to the large diameter of the pipeline 38 inches and high operation pressure 100 kgf/cm{sup 2} operating with natural gas through several densely populated areas. Initially, the individual risk contours were calculated without considering mitigating measures, obtaining as result the individual risk contour with frequencies of 1x10{sup -06} per year involving sensitive occupations and therefore considered unacceptable when compared with the INEA criterion. The societal risk was calculated for eight densely populated areas and their respective FN-curves situated below the advised limit established by INEA, except for two areas that required the proposal of additional mitigating measures to the reduction of societal risk. Regarding to societal risk, the FN-curve should be below the advised limit presented in the Technical Instruction of INEA. The individual and societal risk were reassessed incorporating some mitigating measures and the results situated below the advised limits established by INEA and PETROBRAS has obtained the license for installation of the pipeline. (author)

  9. A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bos, Peter M.J.; Boon, Polly E.; van der Voet, Hilko

    2009-01-01

    Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model...... provides quantitative information on these three parameters. A semi-quantitative tool is presented that combines information on these parameters into easy-readable charts that will facilitate risk evaluations of exposure situations and decisions on risk reduction measures. This tool is based on a concept...... detailed information on the estimated health impact in a given exposure situation. These graphs will facilitate the discussions on appropriate risk reduction measures to be taken....

  10. Supplementing quantitative risk assessments with a stage addressing the risk understanding of the decision maker

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative probabilistic risk assessment produces a conditional risk description given the knowledge of the analysts (formulated to a large extent through assumptions). However, important aspects of the risk may be concealed in the background knowledge of the analyst and the assumptions. This paper discusses this issue, the main purpose being to present a two-stage risk assessment approach where the second stage addresses the risk understanding of the decision maker. This second-stage is to a large extent qualitative. The approach is novel with its separation between the analysts' conditional risk descriptions using probability judgments, and the decision maker's risk understanding. The approach aims at improving the use of risk assessment in practical decision making by ensuring that the results of the risk assessments are properly interpreted and the key aspects of risk, uncertainty and knowledge are brought to attention for the decision makers. Examples are used to illustrate the approach. - Highlights: • A quantitative risk assessment produces a conditional risk description. • The decision maker (DM) needs to address risk beyond this description. • The paper presents a related two-stage process, covering analyst and DM judgments. • The second stage relates to the DM's risk understanding. • Strength of knowledge judgments are included in both stages.

  11. Approaches to quantitative risk assessment with applications to PP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, G.; Schaefer, A.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Experience with accidents such as Goiania in Brazil and indications of a considerable number of orphan sources suggest that improved protection would be desirable for some types of radioactive material of wide-spread use such as radiation sources for civil purposes. Regarding large potential health and economic consequences (in particular, if terrorists attacks cannot be excluded), significant costs of preventive actions, and large uncertainties about both the likelihood of occurrence and the potential consequences of PP safety and security incidents, an optimum relationship between preventive and mitigative efforts is likely to be a key issue for successful risk management in this field. Thus, possible violations of physical protection combined with threats of misuse of nuclear materials, including terrorist attack, pose considerable challenges to global security from various perspectives. In view of these challenges, recent advance in applied risk and decision analysis suggests methodological and procedural improvements in quantitative risk assessment, the demarcation of acceptable risk, and risk management. Advance is based on a recently developed model of optimal risky choice suitable for assessing and comparing the cumulative probability distribution functions attached to safety and security risks. Besides quantification of risk (e. g., in economic terms), the standardization of various risk assessment models frequently used in operations research can be approached on this basis. The paper explores possible applications of these improved methods to the safety and security management of nuclear materials, cost efficiency of risk management measures, and the establishment international safety and security standards of PP. Examples will be presented that are based on selected scenarios of misuse involving typical radioactive sources. (author)

  12. The Pesticide Risk Beliefs Inventory: A Quantitative Instrument for the Assessment of Beliefs about Pesticide Risks

    OpenAIRE

    LePrevost, Catherine E.; Blanchard, Margaret R.; Cope, W. Gregory

    2011-01-01

    Recent media attention has focused on the risks that agricultural pesticides pose to the environment and human health; thus, these topics provide focal areas for scientists and science educators to enhance public understanding of basic toxicology concepts. This study details the development of a quantitative inventory to gauge pesticide risk beliefs. The goal of the inventory was to characterize misconceptions and knowledge gaps, as well as expert-like beliefs, concerning pesticide risk. This...

  13. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  14. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  15. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  16. Is there a place for quantitative risk assessment?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, Eric J [Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY (United States)

    2009-06-01

    The use of ionising radiations is so well established, especially in the practice of medicine, that it is impossible to imagine contemporary life without them. At the same time, ionising radiations are a known and proven human carcinogen. Exposure to radiation in some contexts elicits fear and alarm (nuclear power for example) while in other situations, until recently at least, it was accepted with alacrity (diagnostic x-rays for example). This non-uniform reaction to the potential hazards of radiation highlights the importance of quantitative risk estimates, which are necessary to help put things into perspective. Three areas will be discussed where quantitative risk estimates are needed and where uncertainties and limitations are a problem. First, the question of diagnostic x-rays. CT usage over the past quarter of a century has increased about 12 fold in the UK and more than 20 fold in the US. In both countries, more than 90% of the collective population dose from diagnostic x-rays comes from the few high dose procedures, such as interventional radiology, CT scans, lumbar spine x-rays and barium enemas. These all involve doses close to the lower limit at which there are credible epidemiological data for an excess cancer incidence. This is a critical question; what is the lowest dose at which there is good evidence of an elevated cancer incidence? Without low dose risk estimates the risk-benefit ratio of diagnostic procedures cannot be assessed. Second, the use of new techniques in radiation oncology. IMRT is widely used to obtain a more conformal dose distribution, particularly in children. It results in a larger total body dose, due to an increased number of monitor units and to the application of more radiation fields. The Linacs used today were not designed for IMRT and are based on leakage standards that were decided decades ago. It will be difficult and costly to reduce leakage from treatment machines, and a necessary first step is to refine the available

  17. Is there a place for quantitative risk assessment?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Eric J

    2009-01-01

    The use of ionising radiations is so well established, especially in the practice of medicine, that it is impossible to imagine contemporary life without them. At the same time, ionising radiations are a known and proven human carcinogen. Exposure to radiation in some contexts elicits fear and alarm (nuclear power for example) while in other situations, until recently at least, it was accepted with alacrity (diagnostic x-rays for example). This non-uniform reaction to the potential hazards of radiation highlights the importance of quantitative risk estimates, which are necessary to help put things into perspective. Three areas will be discussed where quantitative risk estimates are needed and where uncertainties and limitations are a problem. First, the question of diagnostic x-rays. CT usage over the past quarter of a century has increased about 12 fold in the UK and more than 20 fold in the US. In both countries, more than 90% of the collective population dose from diagnostic x-rays comes from the few high dose procedures, such as interventional radiology, CT scans, lumbar spine x-rays and barium enemas. These all involve doses close to the lower limit at which there are credible epidemiological data for an excess cancer incidence. This is a critical question; what is the lowest dose at which there is good evidence of an elevated cancer incidence? Without low dose risk estimates the risk-benefit ratio of diagnostic procedures cannot be assessed. Second, the use of new techniques in radiation oncology. IMRT is widely used to obtain a more conformal dose distribution, particularly in children. It results in a larger total body dose, due to an increased number of monitor units and to the application of more radiation fields. The Linacs used today were not designed for IMRT and are based on leakage standards that were decided decades ago. It will be difficult and costly to reduce leakage from treatment machines, and a necessary first step is to refine the available

  18. Quantitative risk analysis offshore-Human and organizational factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espen Skogdalen, Jon; Vinnem, Jan Erik

    2011-01-01

    Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) are one of the main tools for risk management within the Norwegian and UK oil and gas industry. Much criticism has been given to the limitations related to the QRA-models and that the QRAs do not include human and organizational factors (HOF-factors). Norway and UK offshore legislation and guidelines require that the HOF-factors are included in the QRAs. A study of 15 QRAs shows that the factors are to some extent included, and there are large differences between the QRAs. The QRAs are categorized into four levels according to the findings. Level 1 QRAs do not describe or comment on the HOF-factors at all. Relevant research projects have been conducted to fulfill the requirements of Level 3 analyses. At this level, there is a systematic collection of data related to HOF. The methods are systematic and documented, and the QRAs are adjusted. None of the QRAs fulfill the Level 4 requirements. Level 4 QRAs include the model and describe the HOF-factors as well as explain how the results should be followed up in the overall risk management. Safety audits by regulatory authorities are probably necessary to point out the direction for QRA and speed up the development.

  19. Quantitative risk assessment of foods containing peanut advisory labeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C; Baumert, Joseph L; Marx, David B; Taylor, Steve L

    2013-12-01

    Foods with advisory labeling (i.e. "may contain") continue to be prevalent and the warning may be increasingly ignored by allergic consumers. We sought to determine the residual levels of peanut in various packaged foods bearing advisory labeling, compare similar data from 2005 and 2009, and determine any potential risk for peanut-allergic consumers. Of food products bearing advisory statements regarding peanut or products that had peanut listed as a minor ingredient, 8.6% and 37.5% contained detectable levels of peanut (>2.5 ppm whole peanut), respectively. Peanut-allergic individuals should be advised to avoid such products regardless of the wording of the advisory statement. Peanut was detected at similar rates and levels in products tested in both 2005 and 2009. Advisory labeled nutrition bars contained the highest levels of peanut and an additional market survey of 399 products was conducted. Probabilistic risk assessment showed the risk of a reaction to peanut-allergic consumers from advisory labeled nutrition bars was significant but brand-dependent. Peanut advisory labeling may be overused on some nutrition bars but prudently used on others. The probabilistic approach could provide the food industry with a quantitative method to assist with determining when advisory labeling is most appropriate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Modeling logistic performance in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijgersberg, Hajo; Tromp, Seth; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage times, temperatures, gas conditions, and their distributions) are determined. However, the logistic chain with its queues (storages, shelves) and mechanisms for ordering products is usually not taken into account. As a consequence, storage times-mutually dependent in successive steps in the chain-cannot be described adequately. This may have a great impact on the tails of risk distributions. Because food safety risks are generally very small, it is crucial to model the tails of (underlying) distributions as accurately as possible. Logistic performance can be modeled by describing the underlying planning and scheduling mechanisms in discrete-event modeling. This is common practice in operations research, specifically in supply chain management. In this article, we present the application of discrete-event modeling in the context of a QMRA for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh-cut iceberg lettuce. We show the potential value of discrete-event modeling in QMRA by calculating logistic interventions (modifications in the logistic chain) and determining their significance with respect to food safety.

  1. Integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in a health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adám, Balázs; Molnár, Agnes; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal...... in an HIA performed for the recently adopted Hungarian anti-smoking policy which introduced a smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles, and is one of the most effective measures to decrease smoking-related ill health. METHODS: A comprehensive, prospective HIA...... to decrease the prevalence of active and passive smoking and result in a considerably positive effect on several diseases, among which lung cancer, chronic pulmonary diseases, coronary heart diseases and stroke have the greatest importance. The health gain calculated for the quantifiable health outcomes...

  2. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  3. Characterizing health risks associated with recreational swimming at Taiwanese beaches by using quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Ching-Ping

    2018-01-01

    Taiwan is surrounded by oceans, and therefore numerous pleasure beaches attract millions of tourists annually to participate in recreational swimming activities. However, impaired water quality because of fecal pollution poses a potential threat to the tourists' health. This study probabilistically characterized the health risks associated with recreational swimming engendered by waterborne enterococci at 13 Taiwanese beaches by using quantitative microbial risk assessment. First, data on enterococci concentrations at coastal beaches monitored by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration were reproduced using nonparametric Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The ingestion volumes of recreational swimming based on uniform and gamma distributions were subsequently determined using MCS. Finally, after the distribution combination of the two parameters, the beta-Poisson dose-response function was employed to quantitatively estimate health risks to recreational swimmers. Moreover, various levels of risk to recreational swimmers were classified and spatially mapped to explore feasible recreational and environmental management strategies at the beaches. The study results revealed that although the health risks associated with recreational swimming did not exceed an acceptable benchmark of 0.019 illnesses daily at all beaches, they approached to this benchmark at certain beaches. Beaches with relatively high risks are located in Northwestern Taiwan owing to the current movements.

  4. Asset backed securities : risks, ratings and quantitative modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jönsson, B.H.B.; Schoutens, W.

    2009-01-01

    Asset backed securities (ABSs) are structured finance products backed by pools of assets and are created through a securitisation process. The risks in asset backed securities, such as, credit risk, prepayment risk, market risks, operational risk, and legal risks, are directly connected with the

  5. Use of quantitative uncertainty analysis for human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, F.L.W.; Gordon, J.W.; Kelly, M.

    1994-01-01

    Current human health risk assessment method for environmental risks typically use point estimates of risk accompanied by qualitative discussions of uncertainty. Alternatively, Monte Carlo simulations may be used with distributions for input parameters to estimate the resulting risk distribution and descriptive risk percentiles. These two techniques are applied for the ingestion of 1,1=dichloroethene in ground water. The results indicate that Monte Carlo simulations provide significantly more information for risk assessment and risk management than do point estimates

  6. Information Risk Management: Qualitative or Quantitative? Cross industry lessons from medical and financial fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upasna Saluja

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises across the world are taking a hard look at their risk management practices. A number of qualitative and quantitative models and approaches are employed by risk practitioners to keep risk under check. As a norm most organizations end up choosing the more flexible, easier to deploy and customize qualitative models of risk assessment. In practice one sees that such models often call upon the practitioners to make qualitative judgments on a relative rating scale which brings in considerable room for errors, biases and subjectivity. On the other hand under the quantitative risk analysis approach, estimation of risk is connected with application of numerical measures of some kind. Medical risk management models lend themselves as ideal candidates for deriving lessons for Information Security Risk Management. We can use this considerably developed understanding of risk management from the medical field especially Survival Analysis towards handling risks that information infrastructures face. Similarly, financial risk management discipline prides itself on perhaps the most quantifiable of models in risk management. Market Risk and Credit Risk Information Security Risk Management can make risk measurement more objective and quantitative by referring to the approach of Credit Risk. During the recent financial crisis many investors and financial institutions lost money or went bankrupt respectively, because they did not apply the basic principles of risk management. Learning from the financial crisis provides some valuable lessons for information risk management.

  7. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  8. Quantitative risk assessment: an emerging tool for emerging foodborne pathogens.

    OpenAIRE

    Lammerding, A. M.; Paoli, G. M.

    1997-01-01

    New challenges to the safety of the food supply require new strategies for evaluating and managing food safety risks. Changes in pathogens, food preparation, distribution, and consumption, and population immunity have the potential to adversely affect human health. Risk assessment offers a framework for predicting the impact of changes and trends on the provision of safe food. Risk assessment models facilitate the evaluation of active or passive changes in how foods are produced, processed, d...

  9. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  10. Quantitative relationships between aging failure data and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Vora, J.P.

    1988-01-01

    As part of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Nuclear Plant Aging Research program, a project is being carried out to quantify the risk effects of aging. The project is called the Risk Evaluation of Aging Phenomena (REAP) Project. With the REAP Project, a procedure has been developed to quantify nuclear power plant risks from aging failure data. The procedure utilizes the linear aging model and its extensions in order to relate component aging failure rates to aging mechanism parameters which are estimable from failure and maintenance data. The aging failure rates can then be used to quantify the age dependent plant risks, such as system unavailabilities, core melt frequency and public health risks. The REAP procedure is different from standard time dependent approaches in that the failure rates are phenomenologically based, allowing engineering information to be utilized. Furthermore, gross data and incomplete data can be utilized. A software package has been developed which systematically analyzes data for aging effects and interfaces with a time dependent risk analysis module to determine the risk implications of the aging effects. (author). 10 refs, 10 figs

  11. 76 FR 77543 - Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-13

    ... psychology'' (section 3507(b), Pub. L. 111-148, 124 Stat. 530), and to consult manufacturers and consumers... communication of quantitative benefit and risk information. FDA is making available the literature review report...

  12. A quantitative risk-based model for reasoning over critical system properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, M. S.

    2002-01-01

    This position paper suggests the use of a quantitative risk-based model to help support reeasoning and decision making that spans many of the critical properties such as security, safety, survivability, fault tolerance, and real-time.

  13. A quantitative framework for estimating risk of collision between marine mammals and boats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Julien; Sabatier, Quentin; Gowan, Timothy A.; Giraud, Christophe; Gurarie, Eliezer; Calleson, Scott; Ortega-Ortiz, Joel G.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Rycyk, Athena; Koslovsky, Stacie M.

    2016-01-01

    Speed regulations of watercraft in protected areas are designed to reduce lethal collisions with wildlife but can have economic consequences. We present a quantitative framework for investigating the risk of deadly collisions between boats and wildlife.

  14. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

  15. Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

  16. Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

    1999-01-01

    The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

  17. 77 FR 41985 - Use of Influenza Disease Models To Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-17

    ... models to generate quantitative estimates of the benefits and risks of influenza vaccination. The public...] Use of Influenza Disease Models To Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A... Influenza Disease Models to Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A Technical Workshop...

  18. EFFICIENT QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF JUMP PROCESSES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SAFETY

    OpenAIRE

    Nganje, William E.

    1999-01-01

    This paper develops a dynamic framework for efficient quantitative risk assessment from the simplest general risk, combining three parameters (contamination, exposure, and dose response) in a Kataoka safety-first model and a Poisson probability representing the uncertainty effect or jump processes associated with food safety. Analysis indicates that incorporating jump processes in food safety risk assessment provides more efficient cost/risk tradeoffs. Nevertheless, increased margin of safety...

  19. Information Risk Management: Qualitative or Quantitative? Cross industry lessons from medical and financial fields

    OpenAIRE

    Upasna Saluja; Norbik Bashah Idris

    2012-01-01

    Enterprises across the world are taking a hard look at their risk management practices. A number of qualitative and quantitative models and approaches are employed by risk practitioners to keep risk under check. As a norm most organizations end up choosing the more flexible, easier to deploy and customize qualitative models of risk assessment. In practice one sees that such models often call upon the practitioners to make qualitative judgments on a relative rating scale which brings in consid...

  20. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for in Natural and Processed Cheeses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heeyoung Lee

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model (r = 1.82×10−11 was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were 12.40±19.43 g and 19.46±14.39 g, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (α1 = 1, α2 = 91; α1 = 1, α2 = 309×uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8 to be −2.35 and −2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were 9.57×10−14 and 3.58×10−14, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens

  1. A Quantitative Risk Analysis of Deficient Contractor Business System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-30

    Mathematically , Jorion’s concept of VaR looks like this: ( > ) ≤ 1 − (2) where, = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=éêçÖê~ãW= `êÉ~íáåÖ=póåÉêÖó=Ñçê=fåÑçêãÉÇ=ÅÜ...presents three models for calculating VaR. The local-valuation method determines the value of a portfolio once and uses mathematical derivatives...management. In the insurance industry, actuarial data is applied to model risk and risk capital reserves are “held” to cover the expected values for

  2. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  3. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  4. Comparison of Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Results for Shutdown Operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Hae Cheol; Kim, Myung Ki; Chung, Bag Soon; Seo, Mi Ro; Hong, Sung Yull

    2006-01-01

    The Defense-In-Depth philosophy is a fundamental concept of nuclear safety. The objective of Defense-In- Depth (DID) evaluation is to assess the level of Defense- In-Depth maintained during the various plant maintenance activities. Especially for shutdown and outage operations, the Defense-In-Depth might be challenged due to the reduction in redundancy and diversity resulting from the maintenance. The qualitative defense-in-depth evaluation using deterministic trees such as SFAT (Safety Function Assessment Tree), can provide 'Safety' related information on the levels of defense-in-depth according to the plant configuration including the levels of redundancy and diversity. For the more reasonable color decision of SFAT, it is necessary to identify the risk impact of degradation of redundancy and diversity of mitigation systems. The probabilistic safety analysis for the shutdown status can provide risk information related on the degradation of redundancy and diversity level for the safety functions during outage. Insights from the both methods for the plant status can be the same or different. The results of DID approach and PSA for the shutdown state are compared in this paper

  5. Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

    2011-05-15

    In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Web Applications Vulnerability Management using a Quantitative Stochastic Risk Modeling Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergiu SECHEL

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to propose a quantitative risk modeling method that reduces the guess work and uncertainty from the vulnerability and risk assessment activities of web based applications while providing users the flexibility to assess risk according to their risk appetite and tolerance with a high degree of assurance. The research method is based on the research done by the OWASP Foundation on this subject but their risk rating methodology needed de-bugging and updates in different in key areas that are presented in this paper. The modified risk modeling method uses Monte Carlo simulations to model risk characteristics that can’t be determined without guess work and it was tested in vulnerability assessment activities on real production systems and in theory by assigning discrete uniform assumptions to all risk charac-teristics (risk attributes and evaluate the results after 1.5 million rounds of Monte Carlo simu-lations.

  7. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  8. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  9. Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

    Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

  10. Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bell

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative

  11. Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joly, Lauren E.; Connolly, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45) of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61) of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability. PMID:26840336

  12. Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren E. Joly

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45 of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61 of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability.

  13. Quantitative assessment of exposure and risk for three carcinogenics in long-standing pollution sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wichmann, H.E.; Wuppertal Univ.; Ihme, W.; Mekel, O.C.L.; Wuppertal Univ.

    1993-01-01

    The project attempts a quantitative assessment of risks for three carcinogenics that are common in sites of long-standing pollution. Benzo(a)pyrene stands for the group of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, cadmium for heavy metals, and benzene for volatile aromatic compounds. The report discusses the general fundamentals of exposure and risk assessment. The exposure model is described in detail and applied to the three test substances. (orig./MG) [de

  14. Quantitative Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-24

    design failure modes and effects analysis (DFMEA), (b) Fault Tree Analysis ( FTA ) for all essential functions listed in the Failure Definition and...subsystem reliability date from Accomplishment 3, completed (a) updated DFMEA, (b) updated FTA , (c) updated reliability and maintainability estimates, (d...www.gao.gov/assets/660/658615.pdf [4] Karen Richey. Update to GAO’s Cost Estimating Assessment Guide and Scheduling Guide (draft). GAO. Mar 2013

  15. A method of quantitative risk assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Young-Do; Ahn, Bum Jong

    2005-01-01

    Regulatory authorities in many countries are moving away from prescriptive approaches for keeping natural gas pipelines safe. As an alternative, risk management based on a quantitative assessment is being considered to improve the level of safety. This paper focuses on the development of a simplified method for the quantitative risk assessment for natural gas pipelines and introduces parameters of fatal length and cumulative fatal length. The fatal length is defined as the integrated fatality along the pipeline associated with hypothetical accidents. The cumulative fatal length is defined as the section of pipeline in which an accident leads to N or more fatalities. These parameters can be estimated easily by using the information of pipeline geometry and population density of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To demonstrate the proposed method, individual and societal risks for a sample pipeline have been estimated from the historical data of European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group and BG Transco. With currently acceptable criteria taken into account for individual risk, the minimum proximity of the pipeline to occupied buildings is approximately proportional to the square root of the operating pressure of the pipeline. The proposed method of quantitative risk assessment may be useful for risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, and modification of a buried pipeline

  16. Quantitative risk assessment for environmental and occupational health. The practical solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallenbeck, W.H.; Cunningham, K.M.

    1986-01-01

    These following topics are covered in this book: concepts, methods, and limitations; exposure characterization; qualitative evaluation of human and animal studies; quantitative evaluation of human and animal studies; risk analysis; acceptable concentrations; environmental and occupational exposure to a hypothetical toxicant; and environmental exposure to a natural toxicant radon-222 and its daughters

  17. Quantitative prediction of oral cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yao; Li, Yicheng; Fu, Yue; Liu, Tong; Liu, Xiaoyong; Zhang, Xinyan; Fu, Jie; Guan, Xiaobing; Chen, Tong; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

    2017-07-11

    Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma. We have developed an oral cancer risk index using DNA index value to quantitatively assess cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia, but with limited success. In order to improve the performance of the risk index, we collected exfoliative cytology, histopathology, and clinical follow-up data from two independent cohorts of normal, leukoplakia and cancer subjects (training set and validation set). Peaks were defined on the basis of first derivatives with positives, and modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Random forest was found to be the best model with high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (99.2%). Using the Peaks-Random Forest model, we constructed an index (OCRI2) as a quantitative measurement of cancer risk. Among 11 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 over 0.5, 4 (36.4%) developed cancer during follow-up (23 ± 20 months), whereas 3 (5.3%) of 57 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 less than 0.5 developed cancer (32 ± 31 months). OCRI2 is better than other methods in predicting oral squamous cell carcinoma during follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed an exfoliative cytology-based method for quantitative prediction of cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

  18. Simplified quantitative treatment of uncertainty and interindividual variability in health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K.T.

    1993-01-01

    A distinction between uncertainty (or the extent of lack of knowledge) and interindividual variability (or the extent of person-to-person heterogeneity) regarding the values of input variates must be maintained if a quantitative characterization of uncertainty in population risk or in individual risk is sought. Here, some practical methods are presented that should facilitate implementation of the analytic framework for uncertainty and variability proposed by Bogen and Spear. (1,2) Two types of methodology are discussed: one that facilitates the distinction between uncertainty and variability per se, and another that may be used to simplify quantitative analysis of distributed inputs representing either uncertainty or variability. A simple and a complex form for modeled increased risk are presented and then used to illustrate methods facilitating the distinction between uncertainty and variability in reference to characterization of both population and individual risk. Finally, a simple form of discrete probability calculus is proposed as an easily implemented, practical altemative to Monte-Carlo based procedures to quantitative integration of uncertainty and variability in risk assessment

  19. Quantitative risk assessment of continuous liquid spill fires based on spread and burning behaviours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Jinlong; Huang, Hong; Li, Yuntao

    2017-01-01

    Spill fires usually occur during the storage and transportation of hazardous materials, posing a threat to the people and environment in their immediate proximity. In this paper, a classical Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) method is used to assess the risk of spill fires. In this method......, the maximum spread area and the steady burning area are introduced as parameters to clearly assess the range of influence of the spill fire. In the calculations, a modified spread model that takes into consideration the burning rate variation is established to calculate the maximum spread area. Furthermore......, large-scale experiments of spill fires on water and a glass sheet were conducted to verify the accuracy and application of the model. The results show that the procedure we developed can be used to quantitatively calculate the risk associated with a continuous spill fire....

  20. Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

    2016-05-01

    Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the

  1. A probabilistic method for computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injuries compensation claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalle Carbonare, S; Folli, F; Patrini, E; Giudici, P; Bellazzi, R

    2013-01-01

    The increasing demand of health care services and the complexity of health care delivery require Health Care Organizations (HCOs) to approach clinical risk management through proper methods and tools. An important aspect of risk management is to exploit the analysis of medical injuries compensation claims in order to reduce adverse events and, at the same time, to optimize the costs of health insurance policies. This work provides a probabilistic method to estimate the risk level of a HCO by computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injury compensation claims. Our method is based on the estimate of a loss probability distribution from compensation claims data through parametric and non-parametric modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. The loss distribution can be estimated both on the whole dataset and, thanks to the application of a Bayesian hierarchical model, on stratified data. The approach allows to quantitatively assessing the risk structure of the HCO by analyzing the loss distribution and deriving its expected value and percentiles. We applied the proposed method to 206 cases of injuries with compensation requests collected from 1999 to the first semester of 2007 by the HCO of Lodi, in the Northern part of Italy. We computed the risk indexes taking into account the different clinical departments and the different hospitals involved. The approach proved to be useful to understand the HCO risk structure in terms of frequency, severity, expected and unexpected loss related to adverse events.

  2. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Ramón Porta-Sancho, Juan

    2016-07-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

  3. Fixing the cracks in the crystal ball: A maturity model for quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rae, Andrew; Alexander, Rob; McDermid, John

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is widely practiced in system safety, but there is insufficient evidence that QRA in general is fit for purpose. Defenders of QRA draw a distinction between poor or misused QRA and correct, appropriately used QRA, but this distinction is only useful if we have robust ways to identify the flaws in an individual QRA. In this paper we present a comprehensive maturity model for QRA which covers all the potential flaws discussed in the risk assessment literature and in a collection of risk assessment peer reviews. We provide initial validation of the completeness and realism of the model. Our risk assessment maturity model provides a way to prioritise both process development within an organisation and empirical research within the QRA community. - Highlights: • Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is widely practiced, but there is insufficient evidence that it is fit for purpose. • A given QRA may be good, or it may not – we need systematic ways to distinguish this. • We have created a maturity model for QRA which covers all the potential flaws discussed in the risk assessment literature. • We have provided initial validation of the completeness and realism of the model. • The maturity model can also be used to prioritise QRA research discipline-wide

  4. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  5. Predicted cancer risks induced by computed tomography examinations during childhood, by a quantitative risk assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journy, Neige; Ancelet, Sophie; Rehel, Jean-Luc; Mezzarobba, Myriam; Aubert, Bernard; Laurier, Dominique; Bernier, Marie-Odile

    2014-03-01

    The potential adverse effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from computed tomography (CT) in pediatrics must be characterized in relation to their expected clinical benefits. Additional epidemiological data are, however, still awaited for providing a lifelong overview of potential cancer risks. This paper gives predictions of potential lifetime risks of cancer incidence that would be induced by CT examinations during childhood in French routine practices in pediatrics. Organ doses were estimated from standard radiological protocols in 15 hospitals. Excess risks of leukemia, brain/central nervous system, breast and thyroid cancers were predicted from dose-response models estimated in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors' dataset and studies of medical exposures. Uncertainty in predictions was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach predicts that 100,000 skull/brain scans in 5-year-old children would result in eight (90 % uncertainty interval (UI) 1-55) brain/CNS cancers and four (90 % UI 1-14) cases of leukemia and that 100,000 chest scans would lead to 31 (90 % UI 9-101) thyroid cancers, 55 (90 % UI 20-158) breast cancers, and one (90 % UI risks without exposure). Compared to background risks, radiation-induced risks would be low for individuals throughout life, but relative risks would be highest in the first decades of life. Heterogeneity in the radiological protocols across the hospitals implies that 5-10 % of CT examinations would be related to risks 1.4-3.6 times higher than those for the median doses. Overall excess relative risks in exposed populations would be 1-10 % depending on the site of cancer and the duration of follow-up. The results emphasize the potential risks of cancer specifically from standard CT examinations in pediatrics and underline the necessity of optimization of radiological protocols.

  6. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  7. A probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for the long-term work zone crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian; Qu, Xiaobo

    2010-11-01

    Work zones especially long-term work zones increase traffic conflicts and cause safety problems. Proper casualty risk assessment for a work zone is of importance for both traffic safety engineers and travelers. This paper develops a novel probabilistic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the casualty risk combining frequency and consequence of all accident scenarios triggered by long-term work zone crashes. The casualty risk is measured by the individual risk and societal risk. The individual risk can be interpreted as the frequency of a driver/passenger being killed or injured, and the societal risk describes the relation between frequency and the number of casualties. The proposed probabilistic QRA model consists of the estimation of work zone crash frequency, an event tree and consequence estimation models. There are seven intermediate events--age (A), crash unit (CU), vehicle type (VT), alcohol (AL), light condition (LC), crash type (CT) and severity (S)--in the event tree. Since the estimated value of probability for some intermediate event may have large uncertainty, the uncertainty can thus be characterized by a random variable. The consequence estimation model takes into account the combination effects of speed and emergency medical service response time (ERT) on the consequence of work zone crash. Finally, a numerical example based on the Southeast Michigan work zone crash data is carried out. The numerical results show that there will be a 62% decrease of individual fatality risk and 44% reduction of individual injury risk if the mean travel speed is slowed down by 20%. In addition, there will be a 5% reduction of individual fatality risk and 0.05% reduction of individual injury risk if ERT is reduced by 20%. In other words, slowing down speed is more effective than reducing ERT in the casualty risk mitigation. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. An approach to quantitative assessment of relative proliferation risks from nuclear fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silvennoinen, P.; Vira, J.

    1981-01-01

    Feasibility of quantitative assessments of the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation is discussed in this paper. The proliferation risk is defined as a combined utility of the different fuel cycle processes or materials for the proscribed acquisition of a nuclear weapon. Based on a set of selected weighted criteria, the process utilities are calculated employing utility functions or fuzzy expectation values. The methods are compared to each other. The scheme appears feasible in relative comparisons while certain leeway must still be retained for political judgement. (author)

  9. A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Snary, Emma L.; Swart, Arno N.; Simons, Robin R. L.

    2016-01-01

    ,000 and 1 in 10 million servings given consumption of one of the three product types considered (pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready‐to‐eat sausages). Further analyses of the farm‐to‐consumption QMRA suggest that the vast majority of human risk derives from infected pigs with a high concentration......A farm‐to‐consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter‐pig prevalence...

  10. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  11. Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Geologic Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepinski, James

    2013-09-30

    A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO{sub 2} capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and the potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments

  12. Linkage of DNA Methylation Quantitative Trait Loci to Human Cancer Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Heyn

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Epigenetic regulation and, in particular, DNA methylation have been linked to the underlying genetic sequence. DNA methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTL have been identified through significant associations between the genetic and epigenetic codes in physiological and pathological contexts. We propose that interrogating the interplay between polymorphic alleles and DNA methylation is a powerful method for improving our interpretation of risk alleles identified in genome-wide association studies that otherwise lack mechanistic explanation. We integrated patient cancer risk genotype data and genome-scale DNA methylation profiles of 3,649 primary human tumors, representing 13 solid cancer types. We provide a comprehensive meQTL catalog containing DNA methylation associations for 21% of interrogated cancer risk polymorphisms. Differentially methylated loci harbor previously reported and as-yet-unidentified cancer genes. We suggest that such regulation at the DNA level can provide a considerable amount of new information about the biology of cancer-risk alleles.

  13. Sugar concentration in nectar: a quantitative metric of crop attractiveness for refined pollinator risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knopper, Loren D; Dan, Tereza; Reisig, Dominic D; Johnson, Josephine D; Bowers, Lisa M

    2016-10-01

    Those involved with pollinator risk assessment know that agricultural crops vary in attractiveness to bees. Intuitively, this means that exposure to agricultural pesticides is likely greatest for attractive plants and lowest for unattractive plants. While crop attractiveness in the risk assessment process has been qualitatively remarked on by some authorities, absent is direction on how to refine the process with quantitative metrics of attractiveness. At a high level, attractiveness of crops to bees appears to depend on several key variables, including but not limited to: floral, olfactory, visual and tactile cues; seasonal availability; physical and behavioral characteristics of the bee; plant and nectar rewards. Notwithstanding the complexities and interactions among these variables, sugar content in nectar stands out as a suitable quantitative metric by which to refine pollinator risk assessments for attractiveness. Provided herein is a proposed way to use sugar nectar concentration to adjust the exposure parameter (with what is called a crop attractiveness factor) in the calculation of risk quotients in order to derive crop-specific tier I assessments. This Perspective is meant to invite discussion on incorporating such changes in the risk assessment process. © 2016 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

  14. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Trichinellosis Caused by Consumption of Pork Meat Sausages in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sequeira, G J; Zbrun, M V; Soto, L P; Astesana, D M; Blajman, J E; Rosmini, M R; Frizzo, L S; Signorini, M L

    2016-03-01

    In Argentina, there are three known species of genus Trichinella; however, Trichinella spiralis is most commonly associated with domestic pigs and it is recognized as the main cause of human trichinellosis by the consumption of products made with raw or insufficiently cooked pork meat. In some areas of Argentina, this disease is endemic and it is thus necessary to develop a more effective programme of prevention and control. Here, we developed a quantitative risk assessment of human trichinellosis following pork meat sausage consumption, which may be used to identify the stages with greater impact on the probability of acquiring the disease. The quantitative model was designed to describe the conditions in which the meat is produced, processed, transported, stored, sold and consumed in Argentina. The model predicted a risk of human trichinellosis of 4.88 × 10(-6) and an estimated annual number of trichinellosis cases of 109. The risk of human trichinellosis was sensitive to the number of Trichinella larvae that effectively survived the storage period (r = 0.89), the average probability of infection (PPinf ) (r = 0.44) and the storage time (Storage) (r = 0.08). This model allowed assessing the impact of different factors influencing the risk of acquiring trichinellosis. The model may thus help to select possible strategies to reduce the risk in the chain of by-products of pork production. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  15. Using a quantitative risk register to promote learning from a patient safety reporting system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, James G; Caplan, Robert A; Campos, John S; Dreis, David F; Furman, Cathie

    2015-02-01

    Patient safety reporting systems are now used in most health care delivery organizations. These systems, such as the one in use at Virginia Mason (Seattle) since 2002, can provide valuable reports of risk and harm from the front lines of patient care. In response to the challenge of how to quantify and prioritize safety opportunities, a risk register system was developed and implemented. Basic risk register concepts were refined to provide a systematic way to understand risks reported by staff. The risk register uses a comprehensive taxonomy of patient risk and algorithmically assigns each patient safety report to 1 of 27 risk categories in three major domains (Evaluation, Treatment, and Critical Interactions). For each category, a composite score was calculated on the basis of event rate, harm, and cost. The composite scores were used to identify the "top five" risk categories, and patient safety reports in these categories were analyzed in greater depth to find recurrent patterns of risk and associated opportunities for improvement. The top five categories of risk were easy to identify and had distinctive "profiles" of rate, harm, and cost. The ability to categorize and rank risks across multiple dimensions yielded insights not previously available. These results were shared with leadership and served as input for planning quality and safety initiatives. This approach provided actionable input for the strategic planning process, while at the same time strengthening the Virginia Mason culture of safety. The quantitative patient safety risk register serves as one solution to the challenge of extracting valuable safety lessons from large numbers of incident reports and could profitably be adopted by other organizations.

  16. Local scale multiple quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation in a densely urbanised area (Brescia, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Lari

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study of the interactions between natural and anthropogenic risks is necessary for quantitative risk assessment in areas affected by active natural processes, high population density and strong economic activities.

    We present a multiple quantitative risk assessment on a 420 km2 high risk area (Brescia and surroundings, Lombardy, Northern Italy, for flood, seismic and industrial accident scenarios. Expected economic annual losses are quantified for each scenario and annual exceedance probability-loss curves are calculated. Uncertainty on the input variables is propagated by means of three different methodologies: Monte-Carlo-Simulation, First Order Second Moment, and point estimate.

    Expected losses calculated by means of the three approaches show similar values for the whole study area, about 64 000 000 € for earthquakes, about 10 000 000 € for floods, and about 3000 € for industrial accidents. Locally, expected losses assume quite different values if calculated with the three different approaches, with differences up to 19%.

    The uncertainties on the expected losses and their propagation, performed with the three methods, are compared and discussed in the paper. In some cases, uncertainty reaches significant values (up to almost 50% of the expected loss. This underlines the necessity of including uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment, especially when it is used as a support for territorial planning and decision making. The method is developed thinking at a possible application at a regional-national scale, on the basis of data available in Italy over the national territory.

  17. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

  18. [A quantitative risk assessment model of salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Chen, Yuzhen; Hu, Chunguang; Zhang, Huaning; Bi, Zhenwang; Bi, Zhenqiang

    2015-05-01

    To construct a quantitative risk assessment model of salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse and to find out effective interventions to reduce salmonella contamination. We constructed a modular process risk model (MPRM) from evisceration to chilling in Excel Sheet using the data of the process parameters in poultry and the Salmomella concentration surveillance of Jinan in 2012. The MPRM was simulated by @ risk software. The concentration of salmonella on carcass after chilling was 1.96MPN/g which was calculated by model. The sensitive analysis indicated that the correlation coefficient of the concentration of salmonella after defeathering and in chilling pool were 0.84 and 0.34,which were the primary factors to the concentration of salmonella on carcass after chilling. The study provided a quantitative assessment model structure for salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse. The risk manager could control the contamination of salmonella on carcass after chilling by reducing the concentration of salmonella after defeathering and in chilling pool.

  19. Epidemiology and quantitation of environmental risk in humans from radiation and other agents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castellani, Amleto

    1985-01-01

    The identification and quantitation of environmental risk in humans is one of the main problems to be solved in order to improve the protection of individuals and of human populations against physical and chemical pollutants. Epidemiology plays a central role in the evaluation of health risk directly in human populations. In this volume are collected 33 lectures presented at the AS! course on ''Epidemiology and quantitation of environmental risk in humans from radiation and other agents: potential and limitations'', sponsored by NATO and Italian Association of Radiobiology and organized by ENEA. The course has been devoted to a number of aspects of environmental risk analysis and evaluation based on epidemiological investigation. Basic epidemiological concepts and methods have been reviewed. Fundamentals of dosimetry and microdosimetry were presented in relation to the contribution of epidemiology in defining the dose effect relationships for radiation carcinogenesis and its relation with age, sex and ethnicity. The mechanisms of carcinogenesis as a multi-stage process were illustrated. One of the main topics was 'cancer epidemiology' and its correlation with: - occupational and non-occupational exposure to radiation - diagnostic and therapeutic irradiation - cancer proneness - hereditary and familiar diseases - abnormal response to carcinogens - environmental pollution in air and water - exposure to radon in mines and in building material - atomic bomb explosion - chemotherapy - dioxin and related compounds

  20. A quantitative approach for integrating multiple lines of evidence for the evaluation of environmental health risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerome J. Schleier III

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision analysis often considers multiple lines of evidence during the decision making process. Researchers and government agencies have advocated for quantitative weight-of-evidence approaches in which multiple lines of evidence can be considered when estimating risk. Therefore, we utilized Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to integrate several human-health risk assessment, biomonitoring, and epidemiology studies that have been conducted for two common insecticides (malathion and permethrin used for adult mosquito management to generate an overall estimate of risk quotient (RQ. The utility of the Bayesian inference for risk management is that the estimated risk represents a probability distribution from which the probability of exceeding a threshold can be estimated. The mean RQs after all studies were incorporated were 0.4386, with a variance of 0.0163 for malathion and 0.3281 with a variance of 0.0083 for permethrin. After taking into account all of the evidence available on the risks of ULV insecticides, the probability that malathion or permethrin would exceed a level of concern was less than 0.0001. Bayesian estimates can substantially improve decisions by allowing decision makers to estimate the probability that a risk will exceed a level of concern by considering seemingly disparate lines of evidence.

  1. Quantitative risk assessment of the New York State operated West Valley Radioactive Waste Disposal Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrick, B John; Stetkar, John W; Bembia, Paul J

    2010-08-01

    This article is based on a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that was performed on a radioactive waste disposal area within the Western New York Nuclear Service Center in western New York State. The QRA results were instrumental in the decision by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to support a strategy of in-place management of the disposal area for another decade. The QRA methodology adopted for this first of a kind application was a scenario-based approach in the framework of the triplet definition of risk (scenarios, likelihoods, consequences). The measure of risk is the frequency of occurrence of different levels of radiation dose to humans at prescribed locations. The risk from each scenario is determined by (1) the frequency of disruptive events or natural processes that cause a release of radioactive materials from the disposal area; (2) the physical form, quantity, and radionuclide content of the material that is released during each scenario; (3) distribution, dilution, and deposition of the released materials throughout the environment surrounding the disposal area; and (4) public exposure to the distributed material and the accumulated radiation dose from that exposure. The risks of the individual scenarios are assembled into a representation of the risk from the disposal area. In addition to quantifying the total risk to the public, the analysis ranks the importance of each contributing scenario, which facilitates taking corrective actions and implementing effective risk management. Perhaps most importantly, quantification of the uncertainties is an intrinsic part of the risk results. This approach to safety analysis has demonstrated many advantages of applying QRA principles to assessing the risk of facilities involving hazardous materials.

  2. A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chenarani

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.

  3. Quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate the health risk from exposure to noroviruses in polluted surface water in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Abel, Nicole; Mans, Janet; Taylor, Maureen B

    2017-10-01

    This study assessed the risks posed by noroviruses (NoVs) in surface water used for drinking, domestic, and recreational purposes in South Africa (SA), using a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) methodology that took a probabilistic approach coupling an exposure assessment with four dose-response models to account for uncertainty. Water samples from three rivers were found to be contaminated with NoV GI (80-1,900 gc/L) and GII (420-9,760 gc/L) leading to risk estimates that were lower for GI than GII. The volume of water consumed and the probabilities of infection were lower for domestic (2.91 × 10 -8 to 5.19 × 10 -1 ) than drinking water exposures (1.04 × 10 -5 to 7.24 × 10 -1 ). The annual probabilities of illness varied depending on the type of recreational water exposure with boating (3.91 × 10 -6 to 5.43 × 10 -1 ) and swimming (6.20 × 10 -6 to 6.42 × 10 -1 ) being slightly greater than playing next to/in the river (5.30 × 10 -7 to 5.48 × 10 -1 ). The QMRA was sensitive to the choice of dose-response model. The risk of NoV infection or illness from contaminated surface water is extremely high in SA, especially for lower socioeconomic individuals, but is similar to reported risks from limited international studies.

  4. Revisiting support optimization at the Driskos tunnel using a quantitative risk approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Connor Langford

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available With the scale and cost of geotechnical engineering projects increasing rapidly over the past few decades, there is a clear need for the careful consideration of calculated risks in design. While risk is typically dealt with subjectively through the use of conservative design parameters, with the advent of reliability-based methods, this no longer needs to be the case. Instead, a quantitative risk approach can be considered that incorporates uncertainty in ground conditions directly into the design process to determine the variable ground response and support loads. This allows for the optimization of support on the basis of both worker safety and economic risk. This paper presents the application of such an approach to review the design of the initial lining system along a section of the Driskos twin tunnels as part of the Egnatia Odos highway in northern Greece. Along this section of tunnel, weak rock masses were encountered as well as high in situ stress conditions, which led to excessive deformations and failure of the as built temporary support. Monitoring data were used to validate the rock mass parameters selected in this area and a risk approach was used to determine, in hindsight, the most appropriate support category with respect to the cost of installation and expected cost of failure. Different construction sequences were also considered in the context of both convenience and risk cost.

  5. A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

    2009-01-01

    Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan’s current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 × 10−8 (95th percentile: 3.20 × 10−7). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures. PMID:19822125

  6. Risk of vertebral insufficiency fractures in relation to compressive strength predicted by quantitative computed tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biggemann, M.; Hilweg, D.; Seidel, S.; Horst, M.; Brinckmann, P.

    1991-01-01

    Vertebral insufficiency fractures may result from excessive loading of normal and routine loading of osteoporotic spines. Fractures occur when the mechanical load exceeds the vertebral compressive strength, i.e., the maximum load a vertebra can tolerate. Vertebral compressive strength is determined by trabecular bone density and the size of end-plate area. Both parameters can be measured non-invasively by quanti-tative computed tomography (QCT). In 75 patients compressive strength (i.e., trabecular bone density and endplate area) of the vertebra L3 was determined using QCT. In addition, conventional radiographs of the spines were analysed for the prevalence of insufficiency fractures in each case. By relating fracture prevalence to strength, 3 fracture risk groups were found: a high-risk group with strength values of L3 5 kN and a fracture risk near 0 percent. Biomechanical measurements and model calculations indicate that spinal loads of 3 to 4 kN at L3/4 will be common in everyday activities. These data and the results described above suggest that spines with strength values of L3<3 kN are at an extremely high risk of insufficiency fractures in daily life. Advantages of fracture risk assessment by strength determination over risk estimation based on clinically used trabecular bone density measurements are discussed. (author). 18 refs.; 4 figs

  7. Quantitative autistic trait measurements index background genetic risk for ASD in Hispanic families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Joshua; Constantino, John Nicholas; Zambrana, Katherine; Martin, Eden; Tunc, Ilker; Zhang, Yi; Abbacchi, Anna; Messinger, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have indicated that quantitative autistic traits (QATs) of parents reflect inherited liabilities that may index background genetic risk for clinical autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in their offspring. Moreover, preferential mating for QATs has been observed as a potential factor in concentrating autistic liabilities in some families across generations. Heretofore, intergenerational studies of QATs have focused almost exclusively on Caucasian populations-the present study explored these phenomena in a well-characterized Hispanic population. The present study examined QAT scores in siblings and parents of 83 Hispanic probands meeting research diagnostic criteria for ASD, and 64 non-ASD controls, using the Social Responsiveness Scale-2 (SRS-2). Ancestry of the probands was characterized by genotype, using information from 541,929 single nucleotide polymorphic markers. In families of Hispanic children with an ASD diagnosis, the pattern of quantitative trait correlations observed between ASD-affected children and their first-degree relatives (ICCs on the order of 0.20), between unaffected first-degree relatives in ASD-affected families (sibling/mother ICC = 0.36; sibling/father ICC = 0.53), and between spouses (mother/father ICC = 0.48) were in keeping with the influence of transmitted background genetic risk and strong preferential mating for variation in quantitative autistic trait burden. Results from analysis of ancestry-informative genetic markers among probands in this sample were consistent with that from other Hispanic populations. Quantitative autistic traits represent measurable indices of inherited liability to ASD in Hispanic families. The accumulation of autistic traits occurs within generations, between spouses, and across generations, among Hispanic families affected by ASD. The occurrence of preferential mating for QATs-the magnitude of which may vary across cultures-constitutes a mechanism by which background genetic liability

  8. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  9. Affordable, automatic quantitative fall risk assessment based on clinical balance scales and Kinect data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colagiorgio, P; Romano, F; Sardi, F; Moraschini, M; Sozzi, A; Bejor, M; Ricevuti, G; Buizza, A; Ramat, S

    2014-01-01

    The problem of a correct fall risk assessment is becoming more and more critical with the ageing of the population. In spite of the available approaches allowing a quantitative analysis of the human movement control system's performance, the clinical assessment and diagnostic approach to fall risk assessment still relies mostly on non-quantitative exams, such as clinical scales. This work documents our current effort to develop a novel method to assess balance control abilities through a system implementing an automatic evaluation of exercises drawn from balance assessment scales. Our aim is to overcome the classical limits characterizing these scales i.e. limited granularity and inter-/intra-examiner reliability, to obtain objective scores and more detailed information allowing to predict fall risk. We used Microsoft Kinect to record subjects' movements while performing challenging exercises drawn from clinical balance scales. We then computed a set of parameters quantifying the execution of the exercises and fed them to a supervised classifier to perform a classification based on the clinical score. We obtained a good accuracy (~82%) and especially a high sensitivity (~83%).

  10. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  11. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial Installation of Software for Watershed Modeling in Support of QMRA - Updated 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    This tutorial provides instructions for accessing, retrieving, and downloading the following software to install on a host computer in support of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) modeling: • QMRA Installation • SDMProjectBuilder (which includes the Microbial ...

  12. Quantitative meta-analytic approaches for the analysis of animal toxicology and epidemiologic data in human health risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Often, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification to integrate evidence across multiple studies to conclude whether particular hazards exist. However, quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application o...

  13. Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

    2015-02-01

    When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Communicating quantitative risks and benefits in promotional prescription drug labeling or print advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Suzanne L; Squiers, Linda B; McCormack, Lauren; Southwell, Brian G; Brouwer, Emily S; Ashok, Mahima; Lux, Linda; Boudewyns, Vanessa; O'Donoghue, Amie; Sullivan, Helen W

    2013-05-01

    Under the Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, all promotional materials for prescription drugs must strike a fair balance in presentation of risks and benefits. How to best present this information is not clear. We sought to determine if the presentation of quantitative risk and benefit information in drug advertising and labeling influences consumers', patients', and clinicians' information processing, knowledge, and behavior by assessing available empirical evidence. We used PubMed for a literature search, limiting to articles published in English from 1990 forward. Two reviewers independently reviewed the titles and abstracts for inclusion, after which we reviewed the full texts to determine if they communicated risk/benefit information either: (i) numerically (e.g., percent) versus non-numerically (e.g., using text such as "increased risk") or (ii) numerically using different formats (e.g., "25% of patients", "one in four patients", or use of pictographs). We abstracted information from included articles into standardized evidence tables. The research team identified a total of 674 relevant publications, of which 52 met our inclusion criteria. Of these, 37 focused on drugs. Presenting numeric information appears to improve understanding of risks and benefits relative to non-numeric presentation; presenting both numeric and non-numeric information when possible may be best practice. No single specific format or graphical approach emerged as consistently superior. Numeracy and health literacy also deserve more empirical attention as moderators. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Quantitative Deficits of Preschool Children at Risk for Mathematical Learning Disability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felicia W. Chu

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The study tested the hypothesis that acuity of the potentially inherent approximate number system (ANS contributes to risk of mathematical learning disability (MLD. Sixty-eight (35 boys preschoolers at risk for school failure were assessed on a battery of quantitative tasks, and on intelligence, executive control, preliteracy skills, and parental education. Mathematics achievement scores at the end of one year of preschool indicated that 34 of these children were at high risk for MLD. Relative to the 34 typically achieving children, the at risk children were less accurate on the ANS task, and a one standard deviation deficit on this task resulted in a 2.4 fold increase in the odds of MLD status. The at risk children also had a poor understanding of ordinal relations, and had slower learning of Arabic numerals, number words, and their cardinal values. Poor performance on these tasks resulted in 3.6 to 4.5 fold increases in the odds of MLD status. The results provide some support for the ANS hypothesis but also suggest these deficits are not the primary source of poor mathematics learning.

  16. Quantitative risk assessment of human salmonellosis in the smallholder pig value chains in urban of Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang-Xuan, Sinh; Nguyen-Viet, Hung; Unger, Fred; Pham-Duc, Phuc; Grace, Delia; Tran-Thi, Ngan; Barot, Max; Pham-Thi, Ngoc; Makita, Kohei

    2017-02-01

    To quantify salmonellosis risk in humans through consumption of boiled pork in urban Hung Yen Province, Vietnam, using a quantitative microbial risk assessment. We collected 302 samples along the pork value chain in Hung Yen between April 2014 and February 2015. We developed a model in @Risk, based on microbiological, market, and household surveys on cooking, cross-contamination and consumption, and conducted sensitivity analysis. Salmonella prevalence of pen floor swabs, slaughterhouse carcasses and cut pork were 33.3, 41.7 and 44.4%, respectively. The annual incidence rate of salmonellosis in humans was estimated to be 17.7% (90% CI 0.89-45.96). Parameters with the greatest influence risk were household pork handling practice followed by prevalence in pork sold in the central market. Wide confidence interval in the incidence estimate was mainly due to the variability in the degree of reduction in bacteria concentration by cooking, and pork consumption pattern. The risk of salmonellosis in humans due to boiled pork consumption appears to be high. Control measures may include improving the safety of retailed pork and improving household hygiene.

  17. A Quantitative Approach to Credit Risk Management in the Underwriting Process for the Retail Portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Costea

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The core of this paper encloses a mathematical approach of credit risk management, based on a scorecard model used in the bank’s underwriting process. The main purpose of this paper is to present how to develop, validate and apply a rating model in practice. Using 21568 loan applications provided by one of the largest banks from Romania, a scorecard is built for the underwriting purposes. The customer data used in the modeling is based on socio-demographic characteristics. The model is developed according to a set of statistical methods for parameter estimation. A real-life example of how to use such a model in the strategic decisions of a bank is presented. The cut-off score for the acceptance of the applications is calibrated to a potential risk appetite of the main four banks in Romania. From an evaluative perspective, this paper is compatible with an exploratory approach to quantitative research methodology.

  18. Quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, G. M.; Luco, N.; Collins, B. D.; Harp, E.; Reichenbach, P.; Frankel, K. L.

    2011-12-01

    Rock falls are a considerable hazard in Yosemite Valley, California with more than 835 rock falls and other slope movements documented since 1857. Thus, rock falls pose potentially significant risk to the nearly four million annual visitors to Yosemite National Park. Building on earlier hazard assessment work by the U.S. Geological Survey, we performed a quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley. This work was aided by several new data sets, including precise Geographic Information System (GIS) maps of rock-fall deposits, airborne and terrestrial LiDAR-based point cloud data and digital elevation models, and numerical ages of talus deposits. Using Global Position Systems (GPS), we mapped the positions of over 500 boulders on the valley floor and measured their distance relative to the mapped base of talus. Statistical analyses of these data yielded an initial hazard zone that is based on the 90th percentile distance of rock-fall boulders beyond the talus edge. This distance was subsequently scaled (either inward or outward from the 90th percentile line) based on rock-fall frequency information derived from a combination of cosmogenic beryllium-10 exposure dating of boulders beyond the edge of the talus, and computer model simulations of rock-fall runout. The scaled distances provide the basis for a new hazard zone on the floor of Yosemite Valley. Once this zone was delineated, we assembled visitor, employee, and resident use data for each structure within the hazard zone to quantitatively assess risk exposure. Our results identify areas within the new hazard zone that may warrant more detailed study, for example rock-fall susceptibility, which can be assessed through examination of high-resolution photographs, structural measurements on the cliffs, and empirical calculations derived from LiDAR point cloud data. This hazard and risk information is used to inform placement of existing and potential future infrastructure in Yosemite Valley.

  19. Quantitative assessments of indoor air pollution and the risk of childhood acute leukemia in Shanghai

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Yu; Zhang, Yan; Kamijima, Michihiro; Sakai, Kiyoshi; Khalequzzaman, Md; Nakajima, Tamie; Shi, Rong; Wang, Xiaojin; Chen, Didi; Ji, Xiaofan; Han, Kaiyi; Tian, Ying

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the association between indoor air pollutants and childhood acute leukemia (AL). A total of 105 newly diagnosed cases and 105 1:1 gender-, age-, and hospital-matched controls were included. Measurements of indoor pollutants (including nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and 17 types of volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) were taken with diffusive samplers for 64 pairs of cases and controls. Higher concentrations of NO 2 and almost half of VOCs were observed in the cases than in the controls and were associated with the increased risk of childhood AL. The use of synthetic materials for wall decoration and furniture in bedroom was related to the risk of childhood AL. Renovating the house in the last 5 years, changing furniture in the last 5 years, closing the doors and windows overnight in the winter and/or summer, paternal smoking history and outdoor pollutants affected VOC concentrations. Our results support the association between childhood AL and indoor air pollution. - Highlights: • We firstly assessed the effects of indoor air pollution on childhood AL in China. • Indoor air pollutants were assessed by questionnaire and quantitative measurements. • NO 2 and 17 types of VOCs were measured in bedrooms of both cases and controls. • Higher concentrations of indoor air pollutants increased the risk of childhood AL. • Indoor behavioral factors and outdoor pollution might affect indoor air pollution. - Higher concentrations of indoor air pollutants were related to an elevated risk of childhood AL

  20. Risk Perception as the Quantitative Parameter of Ethics and Responsibility in Disaster Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyuchenko, Yuriy; Movchan, Dmytro

    2014-05-01

    Intensity of impacts of natural disasters is increasing with climate and ecological changes spread. Frequency of disasters is increasing, and recurrence of catastrophes characterizing by essential spatial heterogeneity. Distribution of losses is fundamentally non-linear and reflects complex interrelation of natural, social and environmental factor in the changing world on multi scale range. We faced with new types of risks, which require a comprehensive security concept. Modern understanding of complex security, and complex risk management require analysis of all natural and social phenomena, involvement of all available data, constructing of advanced analytical tools, and transformation of our perception of risk and security issues. Traditional deterministic models used for risk analysis are difficult applicable for analysis of social issues, as well as for analysis of multi scale multi-physics phenomena quantification. Also parametric methods are not absolutely effective because the system analyzed is essentially non-ergodic. The stochastic models of risk analysis are applicable for quantitative analysis of human behavior and risk perception. In framework of risk analysis models the risk perception issues were described. Risk is presented as the superposition of distribution (f(x,y)) and damage functions (p(x,y)): P →δΣ x,yf(x,y)p(x,y). As it was shown risk perception essentially influents to the damage function. Basing on the prospect theory and decision making under uncertainty on cognitive bias and handling of risk, modification of damage function is proposed: p(x,y|α(t)). Modified damage function includes an awareness function α(t), which is the system of risk perception function (rp) and function of education and log-term experience (c) as: α(t) → (c - rp). Education function c(t) describes the trend of education and experience. Risk perception function rp reflects security concept of human behavior, is the basis for prediction of socio-economic and

  1. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Fresh-Cut Lettuce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Hao; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Buchanan, Robert L; Schaffner, Donald W; Pradhan, Abani K

    2017-02-01

    Leafy green vegetables, including lettuce, are recognized as potential vehicles for foodborne pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7. Fresh-cut lettuce is potentially at high risk of causing foodborne illnesses, as it is generally consumed without cooking. Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) are gaining more attention as an effective tool to assess and control potential risks associated with foodborne pathogens. This study developed a QMRA model for E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce and evaluated the effects of different potential intervention strategies on the reduction of public health risks. The fresh-cut lettuce production and supply chain was modeled from field production, with both irrigation water and soil as initial contamination sources, to consumption at home. The baseline model (with no interventions) predicted a mean probability of 1 illness per 10 million servings and a mean of 2,160 illness cases per year in the United States. All intervention strategies evaluated (chlorine, ultrasound and organic acid, irradiation, bacteriophage, and consumer washing) significantly reduced the estimated mean number of illness cases when compared with the baseline model prediction (from 11.4- to 17.9-fold reduction). Sensitivity analyses indicated that retail and home storage temperature were the most important factors affecting the predicted number of illness cases. The developed QMRA model provided a framework for estimating risk associated with consumption of E. coli O157:H7-contaminated fresh-cut lettuce and can guide the evaluation and development of intervention strategies aimed at reducing such risk.

  2. Use of mechanistic simulations as a quantitative risk-ranking tool within the quality by design framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Elena; Toschkoff, Gregor; Sacher, Stephan; Khinast, Johannes G

    2014-11-20

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the use of computer simulations for generating quantitative knowledge as a basis for risk ranking and mechanistic process understanding, as required by ICH Q9 on quality risk management systems. In this specific publication, the main focus is the demonstration of a risk assessment workflow, including a computer simulation for the generation of mechanistic understanding of active tablet coating in a pan coater. Process parameter screening studies are statistically planned under consideration of impacts on a potentially critical quality attribute, i.e., coating mass uniformity. Based on computer simulation data the process failure mode and effects analysis of the risk factors is performed. This results in a quantitative criticality assessment of process parameters and the risk priority evaluation of failure modes. The factor for a quantitative reassessment of the criticality and risk priority is the coefficient of variation, which represents the coating mass uniformity. The major conclusion drawn from this work is a successful demonstration of the integration of computer simulation in the risk management workflow leading to an objective and quantitative risk assessment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Skin sensitisation quantitative risk assessment (QRA) based on aggregate dermal exposure to methylisothiazolinone in personal care and household cleaning products.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ezendam, J; Bokkers, B G H; Bil, W; Delmaar, J E

    2017-01-01

    Contact allergy to preservatives is an important public health problem. Ideally, new substances should be evaluated for the risk on skin sensitization before market entry, for example by using a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as developed for fragrances. As a proof-of-concept, this QRA was

  4. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment in food industry: Theory and practical application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Boué, Géraldine

    2018-04-01

    The objective of this article is to bring scientific background as well as practical hints and tips to guide risk assessors and modelers who want to develop a quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) in an industrial context. MRA aims at determining the public health risk associated with biological hazards in a food. Its implementation in industry enables to compare the efficiency of different risk reduction measures, and more precisely different operational settings, by predicting their effect on the final model output. The first stage in MRA is to clearly define the purpose and scope with stakeholders, risk assessors and modelers. Then, a probabilistic model is developed; this includes schematically three important phases. Firstly, the model structure has to be defined, i.e. the connections between different operational processing steps. An important step in food industry is the thermal processing leading to microbial inactivation. Growth of heat-treated surviving microorganisms and/or post-process contamination during storage phase is also important to take into account. Secondly, mathematical equations are determined to estimate the change of microbial load after each processing step. This phase includes the construction of model inputs by collecting data or eliciting experts. Finally, the model outputs are obtained by simulation procedures, they have to be interpreted and communicated to targeted stakeholders. In this latter phase, tools such as what-if scenarios provide an essential added value. These different MRA phases are illustrated through two examples covering important issues in industry. The first one covers process optimization in a food safety context, the second one covers shelf-life determination in a food quality context. Although both contexts required the same methodology, they do not have the same endpoint: up to the human health in the foie gras case-study illustrating here a safety application, up to the food portion in the

  5. Fatalities in high altitude mountaineering: a review of quantitative risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinbruch, Stephan; Nordby, Karl-Christian

    2013-12-01

    Quantitative estimates for mortality in high altitude mountaineering are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on the heterogeneity of the risk estimates and on confounding. Crude estimates for mortality are on the order of 1/1000 to 40/1000 persons above base camp, for both expedition members and high altitude porters. High altitude porters have mostly a lower risk than expedition members (risk ratio for all Nepalese peaks requiring an expedition permit: 0.73; 95 % confidence interval 0.59-0.89). The summit bid is generally the most dangerous part of an expedition for members, whereas most high altitude porters die during route preparation. On 8000 m peaks, the mortality during descent from summit varies between 4/1000 and 134/1000 summiteers (members plus porters). The risk estimates are confounded by human and environmental factors. Information on confounding by gender and age is contradictory and requires further work. There are indications for safety segregation of men and women, with women being more risk averse than men. Citizenship appears to be a significant confounder. Prior high altitude mountaineering experience in Nepal has no protective effect. Commercial expeditions in the Nepalese Himalayas have a lower mortality than traditional expeditions, though after controlling for confounding, the difference is not statistically significant. The overall mortality is increasing with increasing peak altitude for expedition members but not for high altitude porters. In the Nepalese Himalayas and in Alaska, a significant decrease of mortality with calendar year was observed. A few suggestions for further work are made at the end of the article.

  6. Quantitative evaluation of the impact of human reliability in risk assessment for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.

    1981-01-01

    The role of human beings in the safe operation of a nuclear power plant has been a matter of concern. This study describes methods for the quantitative description of that role and its impact on the risk from nuclear power plants. The impact of human errors was calculated by observing the changes in risk parameters, such as core melt probability, release category probabilities, accident sequence probabilities and system unavailabilities due to changes in the contribution to unavailablity of human errors, within the framework of risk assessment methodology. It was found that for operational pressurized water reactors the opportunity for reduction in core melt probability by reducing the human error rates without simultaneous reduction of hardware failures is limited, but that core melt probability would significantly increase as human error rates increased. More importantly, most of the dominant accident sequences showed a significant increase in their probabilities with an increase in human error rates. Release categories resulting in high consequences showed a much larger sensitivity to human errors than categories resulting in low consequences. A combination of structural importance and reliability importance measure was used to describe the importance of individual errors

  7. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment in Occupational Settings Applied to the Airborne Human Adenovirus Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalaura Carducci

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA methodology, which has already been applied to drinking water and food safety, may also be applied to risk assessment and management at the workplace. The present study developed a preliminary QMRA model to assess microbial risk that is associated with inhaling bioaerosols that are contaminated with human adenovirus (HAdV. This model has been applied to air contamination data from different occupational settings, including wastewater systems, solid waste landfills, and toilets in healthcare settings and offices, with different exposure times. Virological monitoring showed the presence of HAdVs in all the evaluated settings, thus confirming that HAdV is widespread, but with different average concentrations of the virus. The QMRA results, based on these concentrations, showed that toilets had the highest probability of viral infection, followed by wastewater treatment plants and municipal solid waste landfills. Our QMRA approach in occupational settings is novel, and certain caveats should be considered. Nonetheless, we believe it is worthy of further discussions and investigations.

  8. Skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment for occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dye ingredients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goebel, Carsten; Diepgen, Thomas L; Blömeke, Brunhilde; Gaspari, Anthony A; Schnuch, Axel; Fuchs, Anne; Schlotmann, Kordula; Krasteva, Maya; Kimber, Ian

    2018-06-01

    Occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dyes has been associated with the development of allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) involving the hands. p-Phenylenediamine (PPD) and toluene-2,5-diamine (PTD) have been implicated as important occupational contact allergens. To conduct a quantitative risk assessment for the induction of contact sensitization to hair dyes in hairdressers, available data from hand rinsing studies following typical occupational exposure conditions to PPD, PTD and resorcinol were assessed. By accounting for wet work, uneven exposure and inter-individual variability for professionals, daily hand exposure concentrations were derived. Secondly, daily hand exposure was compared with the sensitization induction potency of the individual hair dye defined as the No Expected Sensitization Induction Levels (NESIL). For PPD and PTD hairdresser hand exposure levels were 2.7 and 5.9 fold below the individual NESIL. In contrast, hand exposure to resorcinol was 50 fold below the NESIL. Correspondingly, the risk assessment for PPD and PTD indicates that contact sensitization may occur, when skin protection and skin care are not rigorously applied. We conclude that awareness of health risks associated with occupational exposure to hair dyes, and of the importance of adequate protective measures, should be emphasized more fully during hairdresser education and training. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. An educationally inspired illustration of two-dimensional Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez, G A; Busschaert, P; Haberbeck, L U; Uyttendaele, M; Geeraerd, A H

    2014-11-03

    Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a structured methodology used to assess the risk involved by ingestion of a pathogen. It applies mathematical models combined with an accurate exploitation of data sets, represented by distributions and - in the case of two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations - their hyperparameters. This research aims to highlight background information, assumptions and truncations of a two-dimensional QMRA and advanced sensitivity analysis. We believe that such a detailed listing is not always clearly presented in actual risk assessment studies, while it is essential to ensure reliable and realistic simulations and interpretations. As a case-study, we are considering the occurrence of listeriosis in smoked fish products in Belgium during the period 2008-2009, using two-dimensional Monte Carlo and two sensitivity analysis methods (Spearman correlation and Sobol sensitivity indices) to estimate the most relevant factors of the final risk estimate. A risk estimate of 0.018% per consumption of contaminated smoked fish by an immunocompromised person was obtained. The final estimate of listeriosis cases (23) is within the actual reported result obtained for the same period and for the same population. Variability on the final risk estimate is determined by the variability regarding (i) consumer refrigerator temperatures, (ii) the reference growth rate of L. monocytogenes, (iii) the minimum growth temperature of L. monocytogenes and (iv) consumer portion size. Variability regarding the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes tends to appear as a determinant of risk variability only when the minimum growth temperature is not included in the sensitivity analysis; when it is included the impact regarding the variability on the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes is disappearing. Uncertainty determinants of the final risk indicated the need of gathering more information on the reference growth rate and the minimum

  10. Applying quantitative benefit-risk analysis to aid regulatory decision making in diagnostic imaging: methods, challenges, and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P

    2014-09-01

    Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  11. Quantitative comparison of genotoxic (mutagenic and carcinogenic) risks and the choice of energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latarjet, R.

    1983-01-01

    For 25 years, pollution for radiation has been governed by restrictive rules enacted and periodically revised by an international commission, and adopted by all countries. Nothing similar exists for mutagenic and carcinogenic chemicals. Since these substances affect the genetic material in the cells with reactions often similar to those caused by radiation, quantitative comparisons are possible, in particular for some of those compounds produced by the combustion of coal, oil and gaz. This paper describes the main results obtained at the Institut Curie, since 1975, with ethylene, ethylene oxide and vinyl chloride monomer. The consequences are discussed for: a) the establishement of control rules for the main genotoxic chemical pollutions; b) the assessment of long term risks in the cases of nuclear energy and of the energies obtained by combustion [fr

  12. A quantitative microbial risk assessment model for Listeria monocytogenes in RTE sandwiches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tirloni, E.; Stella, S.; de Knegt, Leonardo

    2018-01-01

    within each serving. Then, two dose-response models were alternatively applied: the first used a fixed r value for each of the three population groups, while the second considered a variable r value (lognormal distribution), taking into account the variability in strain virulence and different host...... subpopulations susceptibility. The stochastic model predicted zero cases for total population for both the substrates by using the fixed r approach, while 3 cases were expected when a higher variability (in virulence and susceptibility) was considered in the model; the number of cases increased to 45......A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) was performed to estimate the expected number of listeriosis cases due to the consumption, on the last day of shelf life, of 20 000 servings of multi-ingredient sandwiches produced by a medium scale food producer in Italy, by different population...

  13. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) shows increased public health risk associated with exposure to river water under conditions of riverbed sediment resuspension

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Abia

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available of The Total Environment, 556-557, pp 1143-1151 Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) shows increased public health risk associated with exposure to river water under conditions of riverbed sediment resuspension Akebe Luther King Abia a...

  14. Quantitative Experimental Determination of Primer-Dimer Formation Risk by Free-Solution Conjugate Electrophoresis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desmarais, Samantha M.; Leitner, Thomas; Barron, Annelise E.

    2012-01-01

    DNA barcodes are short, unique ssDNA primers that “mark” individual biomolecules. To gain better understanding of biophysical parameters constraining primer-dimer formation between primers that incorporate barcode sequences, we have developed a capillary electrophoresis method that utilizes drag-tag-DNA conjugates to quantify dimerization risk between primer-barcode pairs. Results obtained with this unique free-solution conjugate electrophoresis (FSCE) approach are useful as quantitatively precise input data to parameterize computation models of dimerization risk. A set of fluorescently labeled, model primer-barcode conjugates were designed with complementary regions of differing lengths to quantify heterodimerization as a function of temperature. Primer-dimer cases comprised two 30-mer primers, one of which was covalently conjugated to a lab-made, chemically synthesized poly-N-methoxyethylglycine drag-tag, which reduced electrophoretic mobility of ssDNA to distinguish it from ds primer-dimers. The drag-tags also provided a shift in mobility for the dsDNA species, which allowed us to quantitate primer-dimer formation. In the experimental studies, pairs of oligonucleotide primer-barcodes with fully or partially complementary sequences were annealed, and then separated by free-solution conjugate CE at different temperatures, to assess effects on primer-dimer formation. When less than 30 out of 30 basepairs were bonded, dimerization was inversely correlated to temperature. Dimerization occurred when more than 15 consecutive basepairs formed, yet non-consecutive basepairs did not create stable dimers even when 20 out of 30 possible basepairs bonded. The use of free-solution electrophoresis in combination with a peptoid drag-tag and different fluorophores enabled precise separation of short DNA fragments to establish a new mobility shift assay for detection of primer-dimer formation. PMID:22331820

  15. Quantitative background parenchymal uptake on molecular breast imaging and breast cancer risk: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hruska, Carrie B; Geske, Jennifer R; Swanson, Tiffinee N; Mammel, Alyssa N; Lake, David S; Manduca, Armando; Conners, Amy Lynn; Whaley, Dana H; Scott, Christopher G; Carter, Rickey E; Rhodes, Deborah J; O'Connor, Michael K; Vachon, Celine M

    2018-06-05

    Background parenchymal uptake (BPU), which refers to the level of Tc-99m sestamibi uptake within normal fibroglandular tissue on molecular breast imaging (MBI), has been identified as a breast cancer risk factor, independent of mammographic density. Prior analyses have used subjective categories to describe BPU. We evaluate a new quantitative method for assessing BPU by testing its reproducibility, comparing quantitative results with previously established subjective BPU categories, and determining the association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer risk. Two nonradiologist operators independently performed region-of-interest analysis on MBI images viewed in conjunction with corresponding digital mammograms. Quantitative BPU was defined as a unitless ratio of the average pixel intensity (counts/pixel) within the fibroglandular tissue versus the average pixel intensity in fat. Operator agreement and the correlation of quantitative BPU measures with subjective BPU categories assessed by expert radiologists were determined. Percent density on mammograms was estimated using Cumulus. The association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer (per one unit BPU) was examined within an established case-control study of 62 incident breast cancer cases and 177 matched controls. Quantitative BPU ranged from 0.4 to 3.2 across all subjects and was on average higher in cases compared to controls (1.4 versus 1.2, p Quantitative BPU was strongly correlated with subjective BPU categories (Spearman's r = 0.59 to 0.69, p quantitative BPU measure, assessed by intraclass correlation, was 0.92 and 0.98, respectively. Quantitative BPU measures showed either no correlation or weak negative correlation with mammographic percent density. In a model adjusted for body mass index and percent density, higher quantitative BPU was associated with increased risk of breast cancer for both operators (OR = 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-10.1, and 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.7). Quantitative

  16. Databases applicable to quantitative hazard/risk assessment-Towards a predictive systems toxicology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waters, Michael; Jackson, Marcus

    2008-01-01

    The Workshop on The Power of Aggregated Toxicity Data addressed the requirement for distributed databases to support quantitative hazard and risk assessment. The authors have conceived and constructed with federal support several databases that have been used in hazard identification and risk assessment. The first of these databases, the EPA Gene-Tox Database was developed for the EPA Office of Toxic Substances by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and is currently hosted by the National Library of Medicine. This public resource is based on the collaborative evaluation, by government, academia, and industry, of short-term tests for the detection of mutagens and presumptive carcinogens. The two-phased evaluation process resulted in more than 50 peer-reviewed publications on test system performance and a qualitative database on thousands of chemicals. Subsequently, the graphic and quantitative EPA/IARC Genetic Activity Profile (GAP) Database was developed in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). A chemical database driven by consideration of the lowest effective dose, GAP has served IARC for many years in support of hazard classification of potential human carcinogens. The Toxicological Activity Profile (TAP) prototype database was patterned after GAP and utilized acute, subchronic, and chronic data from the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. TAP demonstrated the flexibility of the GAP format for air toxics, water pollutants and other environmental agents. The GAP format was also applied to developmental toxicants and was modified to represent quantitative results from the rodent carcinogen bioassay. More recently, the authors have constructed: 1) the NIEHS Genetic Alterations in Cancer (GAC) Database which quantifies specific mutations found in cancers induced by environmental agents, and 2) the NIEHS Chemical Effects in Biological Systems (CEBS) Knowledgebase that integrates genomic and other biological data including

  17. Quantitative risk-based approach for improving water quality management in mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenying; Moran, Chris J; Vink, Sue

    2011-09-01

    The potential environmental threats posed by freshwater withdrawal and mine water discharge are some of the main drivers for the mining industry to improve water management. The use of multiple sources of water supply and introducing water reuse into the mine site water system have been part of the operating philosophies employed by the mining industry to realize these improvements. However, a barrier to implementation of such good water management practices is concomitant water quality variation and the resulting impacts on the efficiency of mineral separation processes, and an increased environmental consequence of noncompliant discharge events. There is an increasing appreciation that conservative water management practices, production efficiency, and environmental consequences are intimately linked through the site water system. It is therefore essential to consider water management decisions and their impacts as an integrated system as opposed to dealing with each impact separately. This paper proposes an approach that could assist mine sites to manage water quality issues in a systematic manner at the system level. This approach can quantitatively forecast the risk related with water quality and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies in mitigating the risk by quantifying implications for production and hence economic viability.

  18. Characterizing trabecular bone structure for assessing vertebral fracture risk on volumetric quantitative computed tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagarajan, Mahesh B.; Checefsky, Walter A.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Tsai, Halley; Wang, Xixi; Hobbs, Susan K.; Bauer, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas; Wismüller, Axel

    2015-03-01

    While the proximal femur is preferred for measuring bone mineral density (BMD) in fracture risk estimation, the introduction of volumetric quantitative computed tomography has revealed stronger associations between BMD and spinal fracture status. In this study, we propose to capture properties of trabecular bone structure in spinal vertebrae with advanced second-order statistical features for purposes of fracture risk assessment. For this purpose, axial multi-detector CT (MDCT) images were acquired from 28 spinal vertebrae specimens using a whole-body 256-row CT scanner with a dedicated calibration phantom. A semi-automated method was used to annotate the trabecular compartment in the central vertebral slice with a circular region of interest (ROI) to exclude cortical bone; pixels within were converted to values indicative of BMD. Six second-order statistical features derived from gray-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) and the mean BMD within the ROI were then extracted and used in conjunction with a generalized radial basis functions (GRBF) neural network to predict the failure load of the specimens; true failure load was measured through biomechanical testing. Prediction performance was evaluated with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) metric. The best prediction performance was observed with GLCM feature `correlation' (RMSE = 1.02 ± 0.18), which significantly outperformed all other GLCM features (p biomechanical strength prediction in spinal vertebrae can be significantly improved through characterization of trabecular bone structure with GLCM-derived texture features.

  19. Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Pervaporation Process for Concentrating Hydrogen Peroxide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Ho Jin; Yoon, Ik Keun [Korea Gas Corporation, Ansan (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Soo Hyoung [Chonbuk National University, Jeonju (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    Quantitative risk analysis has been performed for a pervaporation process for production of high test peroxide. Potential main accidents are explosion and fire caused by a decomposition reaction. As the target process has a laboratory scale, the consequence is considered to belong to Category 3. An event tree has been developed as a model for occurrence of a decomposition reaction in the target process. The probability functions of the accident causes have been established based on the frequency data of similar events. Using the constructed model, the failure rate has been calculated. The result indicates that additional safety devices are required in order to achieve an acceptable risk level, i.e. an accident frequency less than 10{sup -4}/yr. Therefore, a layer of protection analysis has been applied. As a result, it is suggested to introduce inherently safer design to avoid catalytic reaction, a safety instrumented function to prevent overheating, and a relief system that prevents explosion even if a decomposition reaction occurs. The proposed method is expected to contribute to developing safety management systems for various chemical processes including concentration of hydrogen peroxide.

  20. A combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods in the worksites: Application on an electric power provider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marhavilas, P.K.; Koulouriotis, D.E.

    2012-01-01

    An individual method cannot build either a realistic forecasting model or a risk assessment process in the worksites, and future perspectives should focus on the combined forecasting/estimation approach. The main purpose of this paper is to gain insight into a risk prediction and estimation methodological framework, using the combination of three different methods, including the proportional quantitative-risk-assessment technique (PRAT), the time-series stochastic process (TSP), and the method of estimating the societal-risk (SRE) by F–N curves. In order to prove the usefulness of the combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods, an application on an electric power provider industry is presented to, using empirical data.

  1. A simplified method for quantitative assessment of the relative health and safety risk of environmental management activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Smith, T.H.; Peatross, R.G.; Stepan, I.E.

    1996-09-01

    This report presents a simplified method to assess the health and safety risk of Environmental Management activities of the US Department of Energy (DOE). The method applies to all types of Environmental Management activities including waste management, environmental restoration, and decontamination and decommissioning. The method is particularly useful for planning or tradeoff studies involving multiple conceptual options because it combines rapid evaluation with a quantitative approach. The method is also potentially applicable to risk assessments of activities other than DOE Environmental Management activities if rapid quantitative results are desired

  2. Quantitative Metrics and Risk Assessment: The Three Tenets Model of Cybersecurity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Hughes

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Progress in operational cybersecurity has been difficult to demonstrate. In spite of the considerable research and development investments made for more than 30 years, many government, industrial, financial, and consumer information systems continue to be successfully attacked and exploited on a routine basis. One of the main reasons that progress has been so meagre is that most technical cybersecurity solutions that have been proposed to-date have been point solutions that fail to address operational tradeoffs, implementation costs, and consequent adversary adaptations across the full spectrum of vulnerabilities. Furthermore, sound prescriptive security principles previously established, such as the Orange Book, have been difficult to apply given current system complexity and acquisition approaches. To address these issues, the authors have developed threat-based descriptive methodologies to more completely identify system vulnerabilities, to quantify the effectiveness of possible protections against those vulnerabilities, and to evaluate operational consequences and tradeoffs of possible protections. This article begins with a discussion of the tradeoffs among seemingly different system security properties such as confidentiality, integrity, and availability. We develop a quantitative framework for understanding these tradeoffs and the issues that arise when those security properties are all in play within an organization. Once security goals and candidate protections are identified, risk/benefit assessments can be performed using a novel multidisciplinary approach, called “QuERIES.” The article ends with a threat-driven quantitative methodology, called “The Three Tenets”, for identifying vulnerabilities and countermeasures in networked cyber-physical systems. The goal of this article is to offer operational guidance, based on the techniques presented here, for informed decision making about cyber-physical system security.

  3. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  4. Quantitative falls risk estimation through multi-sensor assessment of standing balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Barry R; McGrath, Denise; Walsh, Lorcan; Doheny, Emer P; McKeown, David; Garattini, Chiara; Cunningham, Clodagh; Crosby, Lisa; Caulfield, Brian; Kenny, Rose A

    2012-12-01

    Falls are the most common cause of injury and hospitalization and one of the principal causes of death and disability in older adults worldwide. Measures of postural stability have been associated with the incidence of falls in older adults. The aim of this study was to develop a model that accurately classifies fallers and non-fallers using novel multi-sensor quantitative balance metrics that can be easily deployed into a home or clinic setting. We compared the classification accuracy of our model with an established method for falls risk assessment, the Berg balance scale. Data were acquired using two sensor modalities--a pressure sensitive platform sensor and a body-worn inertial sensor, mounted on the lower back--from 120 community dwelling older adults (65 with a history of falls, 55 without, mean age 73.7 ± 5.8 years, 63 female) while performing a number of standing balance tasks in a geriatric research clinic. Results obtained using a support vector machine yielded a mean classification accuracy of 71.52% (95% CI: 68.82-74.28) in classifying falls history, obtained using one model classifying all data points. Considering male and female participant data separately yielded classification accuracies of 72.80% (95% CI: 68.85-77.17) and 73.33% (95% CI: 69.88-76.81) respectively, leading to a mean classification accuracy of 73.07% in identifying participants with a history of falls. Results compare favourably to those obtained using the Berg balance scale (mean classification accuracy: 59.42% (95% CI: 56.96-61.88)). Results from the present study could lead to a robust method for assessing falls risk in both supervised and unsupervised environments.

  5. Quantitative falls risk estimation through multi-sensor assessment of standing balance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, Barry R; McGrath, Denise; Walsh, Lorcan; Doheny, Emer P; McKeown, David; Garattini, Chiara; Cunningham, Clodagh; Crosby, Lisa; Caulfield, Brian; Kenny, Rose A

    2012-01-01

    Falls are the most common cause of injury and hospitalization and one of the principal causes of death and disability in older adults worldwide. Measures of postural stability have been associated with the incidence of falls in older adults. The aim of this study was to develop a model that accurately classifies fallers and non-fallers using novel multi-sensor quantitative balance metrics that can be easily deployed into a home or clinic setting. We compared the classification accuracy of our model with an established method for falls risk assessment, the Berg balance scale. Data were acquired using two sensor modalities—a pressure sensitive platform sensor and a body-worn inertial sensor, mounted on the lower back—from 120 community dwelling older adults (65 with a history of falls, 55 without, mean age 73.7 ± 5.8 years, 63 female) while performing a number of standing balance tasks in a geriatric research clinic. Results obtained using a support vector machine yielded a mean classification accuracy of 71.52% (95% CI: 68.82–74.28) in classifying falls history, obtained using one model classifying all data points. Considering male and female participant data separately yielded classification accuracies of 72.80% (95% CI: 68.85–77.17) and 73.33% (95% CI: 69.88–76.81) respectively, leading to a mean classification accuracy of 73.07% in identifying participants with a history of falls. Results compare favourably to those obtained using the Berg balance scale (mean classification accuracy: 59.42% (95% CI: 56.96–61.88)). Results from the present study could lead to a robust method for assessing falls risk in both supervised and unsupervised environments. (paper)

  6. Quantitative Structure activity relationship and risk analysis of some pesticides in the cattle milk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faqir Muhammad*, Ijaz Javed, Masood Akhtar1, Zia-ur-Rahman, Mian Muhammad Awais1, Muhammad Kashif Saleemi2 and Muhammad Irfan Anwar3

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Milk of cattle was collected from various localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan. Pesticides concentration was determined by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The residue analysis revealed that about 40% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean±SE levels (ppm of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.38±0.02, 0.26±0.02, 0.072±0.01 and 0.085±0.02, respectively. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR models were used to predict the residues of unknown pesticides in the milk of cattle using their known physicochemical properties such as molecular weight (MW, melting point (MP, and log octanol to water partition coefficient (Ko/w as well as the milk characteristics such as pH, % fat, and specific gravity (SG in this species. The analysis revealed good correlation coefficients (R2 = 0.91 for cattle QSAR model. The coefficient for Ko/w for the studied pesticides was higher in cattle milk. Risk analysis was conducted based upon the determined pesticide residues and their provisional tolerable daily intakes. The daily intake levels of pesticide residues including cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin in present study were 3, 11, 2.5 times higher, respectively in cattle milk. This intake of pesticide contaminated milk might pose health hazards to humans in this locality.

  7. Assessing vertebral fracture risk on volumetric quantitative computed tomography by geometric characterization of trabecular bone structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checefsky, Walter A.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Nagarajan, Mahesh B.; Bauer, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas; Wismüller, Axel

    2016-03-01

    The current clinical standard for measuring Bone Mineral Density (BMD) is dual X-ray absorptiometry, however more recently BMD derived from volumetric quantitative computed tomography has been shown to demonstrate a high association with spinal fracture susceptibility. In this study, we propose a method of fracture risk assessment using structural properties of trabecular bone in spinal vertebrae. Experimental data was acquired via axial multi-detector CT (MDCT) from 12 spinal vertebrae specimens using a whole-body 256-row CT scanner with a dedicated calibration phantom. Common image processing methods were used to annotate the trabecular compartment in the vertebral slices creating a circular region of interest (ROI) that excluded cortical bone for each slice. The pixels inside the ROI were converted to values indicative of BMD. High dimensional geometrical features were derived using the scaling index method (SIM) at different radii and scaling factors (SF). The mean BMD values within the ROI were then extracted and used in conjunction with a support vector machine to predict the failure load of the specimens. Prediction performance was measured using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) metric and determined that SIM combined with mean BMD features (RMSE = 0.82 +/- 0.37) outperformed MDCT-measured mean BMD (RMSE = 1.11 +/- 0.33) (p biomechanical strength prediction in vertebrae can be significantly improved through the use of SIM-derived texture features from trabecular bone.

  8. Combination of qualitative and quantitative sources of knowledge for risk assessment in the framework of possibility theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oussalah, M.; Newby, M.J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper focuses on a representation of system reliability in the framework of possibility theory. Particularly, given a (probabilistic) quantitative knowledge pertaining to the time to failure of a system (risk function) and some qualitative knowledge about the degree of pessimism and optimism of

  9. 78 FR 9701 - Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-11

    ... on the sources of L. monocytogenes contamination, the effects of individual manufacturing and/or... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration [Docket No. FDA-2012-N-1182] Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

  10. EFSA Panel on Biological Hazards; Scientific Opinion on a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment of Salmonella in slaughter and breeder pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine

    This Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) represents a major step forward in terms of modelling Salmonella in pigs from farm to consumption as it takes into account the variability between and within EU Member States (MSs). Around 10-20% of human Salmonella infections in EU may...

  11. Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda, northern Italy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quan Luna, B.; Blahůt, Jan; Camera, C.; Van Westen, C.; Apuani, T.; Jetten, V.; Sterlacchini, S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 72, č. 3 (2014), s. 645-661 ISSN 1866-6280 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : debris flow * FLO-2D * run-out * quantitative hazard and risk assessment * vulnerability * numerical modelling Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 1.765, year: 2014

  12. Comparison of recreational health risks associated with surfing and swimming in dry weather and post-storm conditions at Southern California beaches using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Linda Y; Jiang, Sunny C

    2012-05-01

    Southern California is an increasingly urbanized hotspot for surfing, thus it is of great interest to assess the human illness risks associated with this popular ocean recreational water sport from exposure to fecal bacteria contaminated coastal waters. Quantitative microbial risk assessments were applied to eight popular Southern California beaches using readily available enterococcus and fecal coliform data and dose-response models to compare health risks associated with surfing during dry weather and storm conditions. The results showed that the level of gastrointestinal illness risks from surfing post-storm events was elevated, with the probability of exceeding the US EPA health risk guideline up to 28% of the time. The surfing risk was also elevated in comparison with swimming at the same beach due to ingestion of greater volume of water. The study suggests that refinement of dose-response model, improving monitoring practice and better surfer behavior surveillance will improve the risk estimation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Mammographic features and subsequent risk of breast cancer: a comparison of qualitative and quantitative evaluations in the Guernsey prospective studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Mejía, Gabriela; De Stavola, Bianca; Allen, Diane S; Pérez-Gavilán, Juan J; Ferreira, Jorge M; Fentiman, Ian S; Dos Santos Silva, Isabel

    2005-05-01

    Mammographic features are known to be associated with breast cancer but the magnitude of the effect differs markedly from study to study. Methods to assess mammographic features range from subjective qualitative classifications to computer-automated quantitative measures. We used data from the UK Guernsey prospective studies to examine the relative value of these methods in predicting breast cancer risk. In all, 3,211 women ages > or =35 years who had a mammogram taken in 1986 to 1989 were followed-up to the end of October 2003, with 111 developing breast cancer during this period. Mammograms were classified using the subjective qualitative Wolfe classification and several quantitative mammographic features measured using computer-based techniques. Breast cancer risk was positively associated with high-grade Wolfe classification, percent breast density and area of dense tissue, and negatively associated with area of lucent tissue, fractal dimension, and lacunarity. Inclusion of the quantitative measures in the same model identified area of dense tissue and lacunarity as the best predictors of breast cancer, with risk increasing by 59% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 29-94%] per SD increase in total area of dense tissue but declining by 39% (95% CI, 53-22%) per SD increase in lacunarity, after adjusting for each other and for other confounders. Comparison of models that included both the qualitative Wolfe classification and these two quantitative measures to models that included either the qualitative or the two quantitative variables showed that they all made significant contributions to prediction of breast cancer risk. These findings indicate that breast cancer risk is affected not only by the amount of mammographic density but also by the degree of heterogeneity of the parenchymal pattern and, presumably, by other features captured by the Wolfe classification.

  14. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers - specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mataragas, M.; Zwietering, M.H.; Skandamis, P.N.; Drosinos, E.H.

    2010-01-01

    The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required),

  15. Quantitative structure activity relationship and risk analysis of some pesticides in the goat milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhammad, Faqir; Awais, Mian Muhammad; Akhtar, Masood; Anwar, Muhammad Irfan

    2013-01-04

    The detection and quantification of different pesticides in the goat milk samples collected from different localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan was performed by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The analysis showed that about 50% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean±SEM levels (ppm) of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.34±0.007, 0.063±0.002, 0.034±0.002 and 0.092±0.002, respectively; whereas, methyl parathion was not detected in any of the analyzed samples. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) models were suggested to predict the residues of unknown pesticides in the goat milk using their known physicochemical characteristics including molecular weight (MW), melting point (MP), and log octanol to water partition coefficient (Ko/w) in relation to the characteristics such as pH, % fat, specific gravity and refractive index of goat milk. The analysis revealed good correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.985) for goat QSAR model. The coefficients for Ko/w and refractive index for the studied pesticides were higher in goat milk. This suggests that these are better determinants for pesticide residue prediction in the milk of these animals. Based upon the determined pesticide residues and their provisional tolerable daily intakes, risk analysis was also conducted which showed that daily intake levels of pesticide residues including cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin in present study are 2.68, 5.19 and 2.71 times higher, respectively in the goat milk. This intake of pesticide contaminated milk might pose health hazards to humans in this locality.

  16. Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship and Risk Analysis of Some Pesticides in the Goat milk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faqir Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The detection and quantification of different pesticides in the goat milk samples collected from different localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan was performed by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The analysis showed that about 50% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean+/-SEM levels (ppm of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.34+/-0.007, 0.063+/-0.002, 0.034+/-0.002 and 0.092+/-0.002, respectively; whereas, methyl parathion was not detected in any of the analyzed samples. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR models were suggested to predict the residues of unknown pesticides in the goat milk using their known physicochemical characteristics including molecular weight (MW, melting point (MP, and log octanol to water partition coefficient (Ko/w in relation to the characteristics such as pH, % fat, specific gravity and refractive index of goat milk. The analysis revealed good correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.985 for goat QSAR model. The coefficients for Ko/w and refractive index for the studied pesticides were higher in goat milk. This suggests that these are better determinants for pesticide residue prediction in the milk of these animals. Based upon the determined pesticide residues and their provisional tolerable daily intakes, risk analysis was also conducted which showed that daily intake levels of pesticide residues including cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin in present study are 2.68, 5.19 and 2.71 times higher, respectively in the goat milk. This intake of pesticide contaminated milk might pose health hazards to humans in this locality.

  17. Linking quantitative microbial risk assessment and epidemiological data: informing safe drinking water trials in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enger, Kyle S; Nelson, Kara L; Clasen, Thomas; Rose, Joan B; Eisenberg, Joseph N S

    2012-05-01

    Intervention trials are used extensively to assess household water treatment (HWT) device efficacy against diarrheal disease in developing countries. Using these data for policy, however, requires addressing issues of generalizability (relevance of one trial in other contexts) and systematic bias associated with design and conduct of a study. To illustrate how quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) can address water safety and health issues, we analyzed a published randomized controlled trial (RCT) of the LifeStraw Family Filter in the Congo. The model accounted for bias due to (1) incomplete compliance with filtration, (2) unexpected antimicrobial activity by the placebo device, and (3) incomplete recall of diarrheal disease. Effectiveness was measured using the longitudinal prevalence ratio (LPR) of reported diarrhea. The Congo RCT observed an LPR of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.14). Our model predicted LPRs, assuming a perfect placebo, ranging from 0.50 (2.5-97.5 percentile: 0.33, 0.77) to 0.86 (2.5-97.5 percentile: 0.68, 1.09) for high (but not perfect) and low (but not zero) compliance, respectively. The calibration step provided estimates of the concentrations of three pathogen types (modeled as diarrheagenic E. coli, Giardia, and rotavirus) in drinking water, consistent with the longitudinal prevalence of reported diarrhea measured in the trial, and constrained by epidemiological data from the trial. Use of a QMRA model demonstrated the importance of compliance in HWT efficacy, the need for pathogen data from source waters, the effect of quantifying biases associated with epidemiological data, and the usefulness of generalizing the effectiveness of HWT trials to other contexts. © 2012 American Chemical Society

  18. Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng; Wang, Xue

    2017-01-01

    As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor. (paper)

  19. Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

    2016-03-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical

  20. A quantitative approach for risk-informed safety significance categorization in option-2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Jun Su; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2004-01-01

    OPTION-2 recommends that Structures, Systems, or Components (SSCs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) should be categorized into four groups according to their safety significance as well as whether they are safety-related or not. With changes to the scope of SSCs covered by 10 CFR 50, safety-related components which categorized into low safety significant SSC (RISC-3 SSC) can be exempted from the existing conservative burden (or requirements). As OPTION-2 paradigm is applied, a lot of SSCs may be categorized into RISC-3 SSCs. Changes in treatment of the RISC-3 SSCs will be recommended and then finally the recommended changes shall be evaluated. Consequently, before recommending the changes in treatment, probable candidate SSCs for the changes in treatment need to be identified for efficient risk-informed regulation and application (RIRA). Hence, in this work, a validation focused on the RISC-3 SSCs is proposed to identify probable candidate SSCs. Burden to Importance Ratio (BIR) is utilized as a quantitative measure for the validation. BIR is a measure representing the extent of resources or requirements imposed on a SSC with respect to the value of the importance measure of the SSC. Therefore SSCs having high BIR can be considered as probable candidate SSCs for the changes in treatment. In addition, the final decision whether RISC-3 SSCs can be considered as probable candidate SSCs or not should be made by an expert panel. For the effective decision making, a structured mathematical decision-making process is constructed based on Belief Networks (BBN) to overcome demerits of conventional group meeting based on unstructured discussion for decision-making. To demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach, the approach is applied to 22 components selected from 512 In-Service Test (IST) components of Ulchin unit 3. The results of the application show that the proposed approach can identify probable candidate SSCs for changes in treatment. The identification of the

  1. Process Review for Development of Quantitative Risk Analyses for Transboundary Animal Disease to Pathogen-Free Territories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Miller

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of transboundary animal diseases (TADs have the potential to cause significant detriment to animal, human, and environmental health; severe economic implications; and national security. Challenges concerning data sharing, model development, decision support, and disease emergence science have recently been promoted. These challenges and recommendations have been recognized and advocated in the disciplines intersecting with outbreak prediction and forecast modeling regarding infectious diseases. To advance the effective application of computation and risk communication, analytical products ought to follow a collaboratively agreed common plan for implementation. Research articles should seek to inform and assist prioritization of national and international strategies in developing established criteria to identify and follow best practice standards to assess risk model attributes and performance. A well-defined framework to help eliminate gaps in policy, process, and planning knowledge areas would help alleviate the intense need for the formation of a comprehensive strategy for countering TAD outbreak risks. A quantitative assessment that accurately captures the risk of introduction of a TAD through various pathways can be a powerful tool in guiding where government, academic, and industry resources ought to be allocated, whether implementation of additional risk management solutions is merited, and where research efforts should be directed to minimize risk. This review outlines a part of a process for the development of quantitative risk analysis to collect, analyze, and communicate this knowledge. A more comprehensive and unabridged manual was also developed. The framework used in supporting the application of aligning computational tools for readiness continues our approach to apply a preparedness mindset to challenges concerning threats to global biosecurity, secure food systems, and risk-mitigated agricultural economies.

  2. Synthesis strategy: building a culturally sensitive mid-range theory of risk perception using literary, quantitative, and qualitative methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siaki, Leilani A; Loescher, Lois J; Trego, Lori L

    2013-03-01

    This article presents a discussion of development of a mid-range theory of risk perception. Unhealthy behaviours contribute to the development of health inequalities worldwide. The link between perceived risk and successful health behaviour change is inconclusive, particularly in vulnerable populations. This may be attributed to inattention to culture. The synthesis strategy of theory building guided the process using three methods: (1) a systematic review of literature published between 2000-2011 targeting perceived risk in vulnerable populations; (2) qualitative and (3) quantitative data from a study of Samoan Pacific Islanders at high risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Main concepts of this theory include risk attention, appraisal processes, cognition, and affect. Overarching these concepts is health-world view: cultural ways of knowing, beliefs, values, images, and ideas. This theory proposes the following: (1) risk attention varies based on knowledge of the health risk in the context of health-world views; (2) risk appraisals are influenced by affect, health-world views, cultural customs, and protocols that intersect with the health risk; (3) strength of cultural beliefs, values, and images (cultural identity) mediate risk attention and risk appraisal influencing the likelihood that persons will engage in health-promoting behaviours that may contradict cultural customs/protocols. Interventions guided by a culturally sensitive mid-range theory may improve behaviour-related health inequalities in vulnerable populations. The synthesis strategy is an intensive process for developing a culturally sensitive mid-range theory. Testing of the theory will ascertain its usefulness for reducing health inequalities in vulnerable groups. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Meta-analysis for quantitative microbiological risk assessments and benchmarking data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den H.M.W.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2012-01-01

    Meta-analysis studies are increasingly being conducted in the food microbiology area to quantitatively integrate the findings of many individual studies on specific questions or kinetic parameters of interest. Meta-analyses provide global estimates of parameters and quantify their variabilities, and

  4. A quantitative microbial risk assessment for meatborne Toxoplasma gondii infection in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Opsteegh, M.; Prickaerts, S.; Frankena, K.; Evers, E.G.

    2011-01-01

    Toxoplasma gondii is an important foodborne pathogen, and the cause of a high disease burden due to congenital toxoplasmosis in The Netherlands. The aim of this study was to quantify the relative contribution of sheep, beef and pork products to human T. gondii infections by Quantitative Microbial

  5. Quantitative genetic tools for insecticide resistance risk assessment: estimating the heritability of resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael J. Firko; Jane Leslie Hayes

    1990-01-01

    Quantitative genetic studies of resistance can provide estimates of genetic parameters not available with other types of genetic analyses. Three methods are discussed for estimating the amount of additive genetic variation in resistance to individual insecticides and subsequent estimation of heritability (h2) of resistance. Sibling analysis and...

  6. Designing SQCRA as a Software to Semi-quantitative Chemical Risk Assessment in Workplace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Karimi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives : The aim of chemical risk assessment is to identify and evaluate risks originated from chemicals usages. This study aims to design a practical tool for facilitating chemical risk assessment. Methods: The proposed software was derived from chemical risk assessment method which was recommended by Ministry of Human Resources of Malaysia. All of the processes in question are designed in operating system software. Based on some revisions, this software was developed using Visual Basic (VB titled as SQCRA. The developed software was used for chemical risk assessment in Narges Vegetale Oil Company in Shiraz (center of Iran. Result: The output of software showed that the level of risk derived from sulfuric acid, phosphoric acid, aluminum sulphate, nickel catalyst, acetic acid used as a raw material were 2.4, 2.84, 2.3, 3.5 and 2.66, respectively. Moreover, risk rank and proposed control methods for each of these materials were determined. Conclusions : The developed software calculates the health risk level based on the degree of hazard and exposure in shorttime and without using risk matrix and chemical formula. After determining the risk rank, the software proposes the control procedures to reduce occupational exposure.

  7. Decisions on the tolerability of risk: The use of quantitative risk assessment and the relevance of other factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, A V [Health and Safety Executive, Baynards House, London (United Kingdom)

    1989-07-01

    A recent Discussion Document of the UK Health and Safety Executive proposes guidelines on the tolerable levels of individual and societal risks from nuclear power stations. At the various proposed levels a risk would be just tolerable and must be reduced further 'as low as reasonably practicable' (i.e. taking account of costs and benefits). These levels are induced from contemporary experience. No uniform upper level is proposed for tolerability for all societal risks. A stricter level is explicitly suggested for nuclear plant. A further study currently under way shows that FN curves suggest that (predictions for the very low probability of very high consequences apart) nuclear reactors rank favourably compared to many important non nuclear installations; in contrast to views held by some. Other factors are evidently involved in these views; there are some aspects of risk which cannot readily be presented on an FN curve, and there are 'dread' associations for some of the nuclear risks. The study is therefore also examining some decisions that have been taken in the UK about nuclear and non nuclear risks, based in part on estimates of societal risk. Comparison suggests that different levels of tolerability seem to be applied, according to the specific circumstances. Factors other than those shown in an FN curve evidently apply to these actual decisions as well. A preliminary identification of some of these factors is made. (author)

  8. Improved cancer risk stratification and diagnosis via quantitative phase microscopy (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Uttam, Shikhar; Pham, Hoa V.; Hartman, Douglas J.

    2017-02-01

    Pathology remains the gold standard for cancer diagnosis and in some cases prognosis, in which trained pathologists examine abnormality in tissue architecture and cell morphology characteristic of cancer cells with a bright-field microscope. The limited resolution of conventional microscope can result in intra-observer variation, missed early-stage cancers, and indeterminate cases that often result in unnecessary invasive procedures in the absence of cancer. Assessment of nanoscale structural characteristics via quantitative phase represents a promising strategy for identifying pre-cancerous or cancerous cells, due to its nanoscale sensitivity to optical path length, simple sample preparation (i.e., label-free) and low cost. I will present the development of quantitative phase microscopy system in transmission and reflection configuration to detect the structural changes in nuclear architecture, not be easily identifiable by conventional pathology. Specifically, we will present the use of transmission-mode quantitative phase imaging to improve diagnostic accuracy of urine cytology and the nuclear dry mass is progressively correlate with negative, atypical, suspicious and positive cytological diagnosis. In a second application, we will present the use of reflection-mode quantitative phase microscopy for depth-resolved nanoscale nuclear architecture mapping (nanoNAM) of clinically prepared formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue sections. We demonstrated that the quantitative phase microscopy system detects a gradual increase in the density alteration of nuclear architecture during malignant transformation in animal models of colon carcinogenesis and in human patients with ulcerative colitis, even in tissue that appears histologically normal according to pathologists. We evaluated the ability of nanoNAM to predict "future" cancer progression in patients with ulcerative colitis.

  9. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for spray irrigation of dairy manure based on an empirical fate and transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burch, Tucker R; Spencer, Susan K.; Stokdyk, Joel; Kieke, Burney A; Larson, Rebecca A; Firnstahl, Aaron; Rule, Ana M; Borchardt, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. METHODS: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irri- gation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. RESULTS: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk.

  10. Quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Greg M.; Luco, Nicolas; Collins, Brian D.; Harp, Edwin L.; Reichenbach, Paola; Frankel, Kurt L.

    2014-01-01

    Rock falls are common in Yosemite Valley, California, posing substantial hazard and risk to the approximately four million annual visitors to Yosemite National Park. Rock falls in Yosemite Valley over the past few decades have damaged structures and caused injuries within developed regions located on or adjacent to talus slopes highlighting the need for additional investigations into rock-fall hazard and risk. This assessment builds upon previous investigations of rock-fall hazard and risk in Yosemite Valley and focuses on hazard and risk to structures posed by relatively frequent fragmental-type rock falls as large as approximately 100,000 (cubic meters) in volume.

  11. Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

    2016-08-01

    Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013.

  12. A quantitative and comparative evaluation of the risks from nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vignes, S.; Bertin, M.; Nenot, J.C.

    1980-01-01

    All the significant data for the assessment of risks from the operation of nuclear power plants was collected and these risks were compared with all the risks of modern life. The scientific bases for the evaluation of individual risks and detriment were defined by UNSCEAR (1977) and by ICRP 26 (1978). In different industries, the risk of death from long term occupational illness is about 130 to 14,000 per million workers. For accidental deaths, the risk is estimated at about 16 to 1,600. The risk for the nuclear industry is lower than 100 per million workers. Comparisons are made with different causes of lethality: deaths from atmospheric pollution (sulfur compounds and dusts) related to fossile fuel combustion; iatrogenic accidents attributed to some drugs used in medicine or to other kind of treatment; calculated mortality for workers exposed to asestosis. The nuclear industr of the safest. The only risk to be considered is the major accident, the probability of which is very low. (H.K.)

  13. QUANTITATION OF MOLECULAR ENDPOINTS FOR THE DOSE-RESPONSE COMPONENT OF CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancer risk assessment involves the steps of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment and risk characterization. The rapid advances in the use of molecular biology approaches has had an impact on all four components, but the greatest overall current...

  14. Quantitative coronary plaque analysis predicts high-risk plaque morphology on coronary computed tomography angiography: results from the ROMICAT II trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Puchner, Stefan B; Lu, Michael T; Ghemigian, Khristine; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Broersen, Alexander; Pursnani, Amit; Hoffmann, Udo; Ferencik, Maros

    2018-02-01

    Semi-automated software can provide quantitative assessment of atherosclerotic plaques on coronary CT angiography (CTA). The relationship between established qualitative high-risk plaque features and quantitative plaque measurements has not been studied. We analyzed the association between quantitative plaque measurements and qualitative high-risk plaque features on coronary CTA. We included 260 patients with plaque who underwent coronary CTA in the Rule Out Myocardial Infarction/Ischemia Using Computer Assisted Tomography (ROMICAT) II trial. Quantitative plaque assessment and qualitative plaque characterization were performed on a per coronary segment basis. Quantitative coronary plaque measurements included plaque volume, plaque burden, remodeling index, and diameter stenosis. In qualitative analysis, high-risk plaque was present if positive remodeling, low CT attenuation plaque, napkin-ring sign or spotty calcium were detected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between quantitative and qualitative high-risk plaque assessment. Among 888 segments with coronary plaque, high-risk plaque was present in 391 (44.0%) segments by qualitative analysis. In quantitative analysis, segments with high-risk plaque had higher total plaque volume, low CT attenuation plaque volume, plaque burden and remodeling index. Quantitatively assessed low CT attenuation plaque volume (odds ratio 1.12 per 1 mm 3 , 95% CI 1.04-1.21), positive remodeling (odds ratio 1.25 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.10-1.41) and plaque burden (odds ratio 1.53 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with high-risk plaque. Quantitative coronary plaque characteristics (low CT attenuation plaque volume, positive remodeling and plaque burden) measured by semi-automated software correlated with qualitative assessment of high-risk plaque features.

  15. Combining quantitative and qualitative breast density measures to assess breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlikowske, Karla; Ma, Lin; Scott, Christopher G; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir P; Jensen, Matthew R; Sprague, Brian L; Henderson, Louise M; Pankratz, V Shane; Cummings, Steven R; Miglioretti, Diana L; Vachon, Celine M; Shepherd, John A

    2017-08-22

    Accurately identifying women with dense breasts (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System [BI-RADS] heterogeneously or extremely dense) who are at high breast cancer risk will facilitate discussions of supplemental imaging and primary prevention. We examined the independent contribution of dense breast volume and BI-RADS breast density to predict invasive breast cancer and whether dense breast volume combined with Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model factors (age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, and BI-RADS breast density) improves identifying women with dense breasts at high breast cancer risk. We conducted a case-control study of 1720 women with invasive cancer and 3686 control subjects. We calculated ORs and 95% CIs for the effect of BI-RADS breast density and Volpara™ automated dense breast volume on invasive cancer risk, adjusting for other BCSC risk model factors plus body mass index (BMI), and we compared C-statistics between models. We calculated BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk, incorporating the adjusted ORs associated with dense breast volume. Compared with women with BI-RADS scattered fibroglandular densities and second-quartile dense breast volume, women with BI-RADS extremely dense breasts and third- or fourth-quartile dense breast volume (75% of women with extremely dense breasts) had high breast cancer risk (OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.84-4.47, and OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.87-3.52, respectively), whereas women with extremely dense breasts and first- or second-quartile dense breast volume were not at significantly increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.53, 95% CI 0.75-3.09, and OR 1.50, 95% CI 0.82-2.73, respectively). Adding continuous dense breast volume to a model with BCSC risk model factors and BMI increased discriminatory accuracy compared with a model with only BCSC risk model factors (C-statistic 0.639, 95% CI 0.623-0.654, vs. C-statistic 0.614, 95% CI 0.598-0.630, respectively; P breasts and fourth

  16. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Salmonella in dry fermented sausage (salami) in Southern Brazil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corbellini, Luis Gustavo; Costa, Eduardo de Freitas; Cardoso, Marisa

    2017-01-01

    Dry fermented sausage (salami) is a very popular ready-to-eat product in Southern Brazil, of which the raw materials can be contaminated with pathogens such as Salmonella. This product can put consumers at risk if a failure occurs during the manufacturing process. To investigate this risk...... and heterogeneous). In general, it was observed that the mean exposure to Salmonella due to ingestion of a portion of contaminated salami was very low; "zero risks" (with no cases of salmonellosis among 100,000 consumed portions of salami) were found in 65% of the scenarios (265/405) assessed and low risks were...... low, selling dry fermented sausage before complete maturation of the product and failure in fermentation can pose a risk to the consumers from the studied region. It was found that a maturation period of 24 days can be considered safe, even in a situation with high initial levels of contamination....

  17. Quantitative modeling of operational risk in finance and banking using possibility theory

    CERN Document Server

    Chaudhuri, Arindam

    2016-01-01

    This book offers a comprehensive guide to the modelling of operational risk using possibility theory. It provides a set of methods for measuring operational risks under a certain degree of vagueness and impreciseness, as encountered in real-life data. It shows how possibility theory and indeterminate uncertainty-encompassing degrees of belief can be applied in analysing the risk function, and describes the parametric g-and-h distribution associated with extreme value theory as an interesting candidate in this regard. The book offers a complete assessment of fuzzy methods for determining both value at risk (VaR) and subjective value at risk (SVaR), together with a stability estimation of VaR and SVaR. Based on the simulation studies and case studies reported on here, the possibilistic quantification of risk performs consistently better than the probabilistic model. Risk is evaluated by integrating two fuzzy techniques: the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy extension of techniques for order prefere...

  18. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2017-12-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  19. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2018-06-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  20. Using Quantitative Data Analysis Techniques for Bankruptcy Risk Estimation for Corporations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ştefan Daniel ARMEANU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Diversification of methods and techniques for quantification and management of risk has led to the development of many mathematical models, a large part of which focused on measuring bankruptcy risk for businesses. In financial analysis there are many indicators which can be used to assess the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises but to make an assessment it is needed to reduce the number of indicators and this can be achieved through principal component, cluster and discriminant analyses techniques. In this context, the article aims to build a scoring function used to identify bankrupt companies, using a sample of companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange.

  1. Presentation of a method for consequence modeling and quantitative risk assessment of fire and explosion in process industry (Case study: Hydrogen Production Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M J Jafari

    2013-05-01

     .Conclusion: Since the proposed method is applicable in all phases of process or system design, and estimates the risk of fire and explosion by a quantitative, comprehensive and mathematical-based equations approach. It can be used as an alternative method instead of qualitative and semi quantitative methods.

  2. Risk Quantitative Determination of Fire and Explosion in a Process Unit By Dow’s Fire and Explosion Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Varmazyar

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims   Fire and explosion hazards are the first and second of major hazards in process industries, respectively. This study has been done to determine fire and explosion risk severity,radius of exposure and estimating of most probable loss.   Methods   In this quantitative study process unit has been selected with affecting parameters on  fire and explosion risk. Then, it was analyzed by DOW's fire and explosion index (F&EI. Technical data were obtained from process documents and reports, fire and explosion guideline.After calculating of DOW's index, radius of exposure determined and finally most  probable loss was estimated.   Results   The results showed an F&EI value of 226 for this process unit.The F&EI was extremely  high and unacceptable.Risk severity was categorized in sever class.Radius of exposure and damage factor were calculated 57 meters and 83%,respectively. As well as most probable loss was  estimated about 6.7 million dollars.   Conclusion   F&EI is a proper technique for risk assessment and loss estimation of fire and  explosion in process industries.Also,It is an important index for detecting high risk and low risk   areas in an industry. At this technique, all of factors affecting on fire and explosion risk was  showed as index that is a base for judgement risk class. Finally, estimated losses could be used as  a base of fire and explosion insurance.

  3. Potential impacts of radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays on childhood leukemia in France: a quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laurent, Olivier [French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Radiobiology and Epidemiology Department, IRSN, PRP-HOM, SRBE, LEPID, Fontenay aux Roses (France); University of California, Irvine, Department of Population Health and Disease Prevention, Irvine, CA (United States); Ancelet, Sophie; Laurier, Dominique [French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Radiobiology and Epidemiology Department, IRSN, PRP-HOM, SRBE, LEPID, Fontenay aux Roses (France); Richardson, David B. [University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Hemon, Denis; Demoury, Claire; Clavel, Jacqueline [Inserm, CESP Center for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health, U1018, Environmental Epidemiology of Cancer Team, Villejuif (France); Paris-Sud University, UMRS 1018, Villejuif (France); Ielsch, Geraldine [French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Assessment Unit for Risks Related to Natural Radioactivity, IRSN, PRP-DGE, SEDRAN, BRN, Fontenay aux Roses (France)

    2013-05-15

    Previous epidemiological studies and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) have suggested that natural background radiation may be a cause of childhood leukemia. The present work uses a QRA approach to predict the excess risk of childhood leukemia in France related to three components of natural radiation: radon, cosmic rays and terrestrial gamma rays, using excess relative and absolute risk models proposed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Both models were developed from the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Previous risk assessments were extended by considering uncertainties in radiation-related leukemia risk model parameters as part of this process, within a Bayesian framework. Estimated red bone marrow doses cumulated during childhood by the average French child due to radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays are 4.4, 7.5 and 4.3 mSv, respectively. The excess fractions of cases (expressed as percentages) associated with these sources of natural radiation are 20 % [95 % credible interval (CI) 0-68 %] and 4 % (95 % CI 0-11 %) under the excess relative and excess absolute risk models, respectively. The large CIs, as well as the different point estimates obtained under these two models, highlight the uncertainties in predictions of radiation-related childhood leukemia risks. These results are only valid provided that models developed from the LSS can be transferred to the population of French children and to chronic natural radiation exposures, and must be considered in view of the currently limited knowledge concerning other potential risk factors for childhood leukemia. Last, they emphasize the need for further epidemiological investigations of the effects of natural radiation on childhood leukemia to reduce uncertainties and help refine radiation protection standards. (orig.)

  4. Potential impacts of radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays on childhood leukemia in France: a quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurent, Olivier; Ancelet, Sophie; Laurier, Dominique; Richardson, David B.; Hemon, Denis; Demoury, Claire; Clavel, Jacqueline; Ielsch, Geraldine

    2013-01-01

    Previous epidemiological studies and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) have suggested that natural background radiation may be a cause of childhood leukemia. The present work uses a QRA approach to predict the excess risk of childhood leukemia in France related to three components of natural radiation: radon, cosmic rays and terrestrial gamma rays, using excess relative and absolute risk models proposed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Both models were developed from the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Previous risk assessments were extended by considering uncertainties in radiation-related leukemia risk model parameters as part of this process, within a Bayesian framework. Estimated red bone marrow doses cumulated during childhood by the average French child due to radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays are 4.4, 7.5 and 4.3 mSv, respectively. The excess fractions of cases (expressed as percentages) associated with these sources of natural radiation are 20 % [95 % credible interval (CI) 0-68 %] and 4 % (95 % CI 0-11 %) under the excess relative and excess absolute risk models, respectively. The large CIs, as well as the different point estimates obtained under these two models, highlight the uncertainties in predictions of radiation-related childhood leukemia risks. These results are only valid provided that models developed from the LSS can be transferred to the population of French children and to chronic natural radiation exposures, and must be considered in view of the currently limited knowledge concerning other potential risk factors for childhood leukemia. Last, they emphasize the need for further epidemiological investigations of the effects of natural radiation on childhood leukemia to reduce uncertainties and help refine radiation protection standards. (orig.)

  5. A risk assessment-driven quantitative comparison of gene expression profiles in PBMCs and white adipose tissue of humans and rats after isoflavone supplementation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velpen, van der V.; Veer, van 't P.; Islam, M.A.; Braak, ter C.J.F.; Leeuwen, F.X.R.; Afman, L.A.; Hollman, P.C.H.; Schouten, A.; Geelen, M.M.E.E.

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative insight into species differences in risk assessment is expected to reduce uncertainty and variability related to extrapolation from animals to humans. This paper explores quantification and comparison of gene expression data between tissues and species from intervention studies with

  6. Logic and Risk as Qualitative and Quantitative Dimensions of Decision-Making Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Galanc

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Key problems in the field of decision-making have been considered. The authors' aim was to indicate the extremely important for management role of logic and risk in relation to decisions taken under conditions of uncertainty. In the course of the research, the following hypothesis was tested: the complexity of risk is determined by the diversity of reality. The result of this is that in science there is no current study developing a uniform methodology for the assessment of risk. It might even be doubtful whether it can be created. In a certain sense, this is indicated in the article by the discussion about the dimensions of logic and risk apparent in any decisions taken by a man. The paper presents the complexity and diversity of risk assessment on the basis of selected, but essential to the discussed issue, fields of knowledge. This is valid when the numerical or qualitative level of risk is substantial in the context of the analyzed problem. (original abstract

  7. EIF onshore discharges : a quantitative environmental risk assessment tool for onshore facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagemann, R.; Smit, M.G.D.; Frost, T.K. [Statoil ASA, Stavenger (Norway); Firth, S.K. [Firth Consultants, Bristol (United Kingdom); Stone, K. [WorleyParsons, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    The proper management of environmental risk is a key requirement of StatoilHydro's governing documents and is a key consideration in all phases of StatoilHydro's activities. In order to help manage risks in an effective and sustainable manner, StatoilHydro has led the development of the environmental impact factor (EIF) risk assessment tool. The EIF is utilized by all operators on the Norwegian Continental Shelf for reporting continuous improvements in produced water management to the authorities. The EIF concept has also been applied to evaluate environmental risk from air emissions, offshore oil spills and drilling discharges, discharges from onshore facilities to sea and discharges and spills from onshore installations. In order to identify the remaining hypothetical risk from a new facility, optimized with respect to environmental protection, this paper presented a case study, where the tool was applied to an oil sands steam assisted gravity drainage facility in Alberta. The paper discussed the EIF model and results of the case study. It was concluded that as a result of the use of generic principles for environmental risk assessment, combined with databases with parameter information for common soil and aquifer types, the EIF tool could be applied to any site ranging from wetlands to deserts. 5 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  8. A quantitative assessment of risks of heavy metal residues in laundered shop towels and their use by workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Kevin; Magee, Brian

    2014-10-01

    This paper presents a risk assessment of exposure to metal residues in laundered shop towels by workers. The concentrations of 27 metals measured in a synthetic sweat leachate were used to estimate the releasable quantity of metals which could be transferred to workers' skin. Worker exposure was evaluated quantitatively with an exposure model that focused on towel-to-hand transfer and subsequent hand-to-food or -mouth transfers. The exposure model was based on conservative, but reasonable assumptions regarding towel use and default exposure factor values from the published literature or regulatory guidance. Transfer coefficients were derived from studies representative of the exposures to towel users. Contact frequencies were based on assumed high-end use of shop towels, but constrained by a theoretical maximum dermal loading. The risk estimates for workers developed for all metals were below applicable regulatory risk benchmarks. The risk assessment for lead utilized the Adult Lead Model and concluded that predicted lead intakes do not constitute a significant health hazard based on potential worker exposures. Uncertainties are discussed in relation to the overall confidence in the exposure estimates developed for each exposure pathway and the likelihood that the exposure model is under- or overestimating worker exposures and risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Skin sensitisation quantitative risk assessment (QRA) based on aggregate dermal exposure to methylisothiazolinone in personal care and household cleaning products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezendam, J; Bokkers, B G H; Bil, W; Delmaar, J E

    2018-02-01

    Contact allergy to preservatives is an important public health problem. Ideally, new substances should be evaluated for the risk on skin sensitisation before market entry, for example by using a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as developed for fragrances. As a proof-of-concept, this QRA was applied to the preservative methylisothiazolinone (MI), a common cause of contact allergy. MI is used in different consumer products, including personal care products (PCPs) and household cleaning products (HCPs). Aggregate exposure to MI in PCPs and HCPs was therefore assessed with the Probabilistic Aggregated Consumer Exposure Model (PACEM). Two exposure scenarios were evaluated: scenario 1 calculated aggregate exposure on actual MI product concentrations before the restricted use in PCPs and scenario 2 calculated aggregate exposure using the restrictions for MI in PCPs. The QRA for MI showed that in scenarios 1 and 2, the proportion of the population at risk for skin sensitisation is 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The restricted use of MI in PCPs does not seem very effective in lowering the risk on skin sensitization. To conclude, it is important to consider aggregate exposure from the most important consumer products into consideration in the risk assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in well water from a native community of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balderrama-Carmona, Ana Paola; Gortáres-Moroyoqui, Pablo; Álvarez-Valencia, Luis Humberto; Castro-Espinoza, Luciano; Balderas-Cortés, José de Jesús; Mondaca-Fernández, Iram; Chaidez-Quiroz, Cristóbal; Meza-Montenegro, María Mercedes

    2015-01-01

    Cryptosporidium and Giardia are gastrointestinal disease-causing organisms transmitted by the fecal-oral route, zoonotic and prevalent in all socioeconomic segments with greater emphasis in rural communities. The goal of this study was to assess the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis of Potam dwellers consuming drinking water from communal well water. To achieve the goal, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was carried out as follows: (a) identification of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts in well water samples by information collection rule method, (b) assessment of exposure to healthy Potam residents, (c) dose-response modelling, and (d) risk characterization using an exponential model. All well water samples tested were positive for Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The QMRA results indicate a mean of annual risks of 99:100 (0.99) for cryptosporidiosis and 1:1 (1.0) for giardiasis. The outcome of the present study may drive decision-makers to establish an educational and treatment program to reduce the incidence of parasite-borne intestinal infection in the Potam community, and to conduct risk analysis programs in other similar rural communities in Mexico.

  11. Quantitative Structure activity relationship and risk analysis of some pesticides in the cattle milk

    OpenAIRE

    Faqir Muhammad*, Ijaz Javed, Masood Akhtar1, Zia-ur-Rahman, Mian Muhammad Awais1, Muhammad Kashif Saleemi2 and Muhammad Irfan Anwar3

    2012-01-01

    Milk of cattle was collected from various localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan. Pesticides concentration was determined by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The residue analysis revealed that about 40% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean±SE levels (ppm) of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.38±0.02, 0.26±0.02, 0.072±0.01 and 0.085±0.02, respectively. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) models were used to predict the residues...

  12. Development of a Quantitative Framework for Regulatory Risk Assessments: Probabilistic Approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2003-11-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point and have been based on deterministic calculations. Recently introduced Swedish regulations have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. A recent review of the overall structure of risk assessments in safety cases concluded that there are a number of decisions and assumptions in the development of a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. Regulatory understanding of these issues, potentially supported by independent calculations, is important in preparing for review of a proponent's risk assessment. One approach to evaluating risk in performance assessments is to use the concept of probability to express uncertainties, and to propagate these probabilities through the analysis. This report describes the various approaches available for undertaking such probabilistic analyses, both as a means of accounting for uncertainty in the determination of risk and more generally as a means of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The report discusses the overall nature of probabilistic analyses and how they are applied to both the calculation of risk and sensitivity analyses. Several approaches are available, including differential analysis, response surface methods and simulation. Simulation is the approach most commonly used, both in assessments for radioactive waste disposal and in other subject areas, and the report describes the key stages of this approach in detail. Decisions relating to the development of input PDFs, sampling methods (including approaches to the treatment

  13. Risk Factors for Chronic Subdural Hematoma Recurrence Identified Using Quantitative Computed Tomography Analysis of Hematoma Volume and Density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrinou, Pantelis; Katsigiannis, Sotirios; Lee, Jong Hun; Hamisch, Christina; Krischek, Boris; Mpotsaris, Anastasios; Timmer, Marco; Goldbrunner, Roland

    2017-03-01

    Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH), a common condition in elderly patients, presents a therapeutic challenge with recurrence rates of 33%. We aimed to identify specific prognostic factors for recurrence using quantitative analysis of hematoma volume and density. We retrospectively reviewed radiographic and clinical data of 227 CSDHs in 195 consecutive patients who underwent evacuation of the hematoma through a single burr hole, 2 burr holes, or a mini-craniotomy. To examine the relationship between hematoma recurrence and various clinical, radiologic, and surgical factors, we used quantitative image-based analysis to measure the hematoma and trapped air volumes and the hematoma densities. Recurrence of CSDH occurred in 35 patients (17.9%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density were independent risk factors for recurrence. All 3 evacuation methods were equally effective in draining the hematoma (71.7% vs. 73.7% vs. 71.9%) without observable differences in postoperative air volume captured in the subdural space. Quantitative image analysis provided evidence that percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density are independent prognostic factors for subdural hematoma recurrence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanea, D.M.; Jagtman, H.M.; Alphen, L.L.M.M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Expert judgment procedure is a method very often used in the area of risk assessments of complex systems or processes to fill in quantitative data. Although it has been proved to be a very reliable source of information when no other data are available, the choice of experts is always questioned. When the available data are limited, the seed questions cover only partially the domains of expertise, which may cause problems. Expertise is assessed not covering the full object of study but only those topics for which seed questions can be formulated. The commonly used quantitative analysis of an expert judgment exercise is combined with a qualitative analysis. The latter adds more insights to the relation between the assessor's field and statistical knowledge and their performance in an expert judgment. In addition the qualitative analysis identifies different types of seed questions. Three groups of assessors with different levels of statistical and domain knowledge are studied. The quantitative analysis shows no differences between field experts and non-experts and no differences between having advanced statistical knowledge or not. The qualitative analysis supports these findings. In addition it is found that especially technical questions are answered with larger intervals. Precaution is required when using seed questions for which the real value can be calculated, which was the case for one of the seed questions.

  15. Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Off-Shore Wind Energy Project’s Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The benefits of wind power can solve the issue of growing power consumption with insufficient distribution facilities. Based on an extensive research on more than 20 studies, this study explores the risks associated with off-shore wind energy in Persian Gulf in Iran. This paper tries to identify the risks in related off-shore wind energy project, in order to specify which variables have the most impact on project by qualitative analysis through application of the impact and the possibility of every risk. A survey was conducted in order to determine the relative importance of variables and risks. Certain key components in completion of the project should be taken into account such as technology, research team, expert teams (personnel that have a good knowledge of this industry, and choosing the right spot where the wind farms will be located. The objective of this paper is to present the variables encountered in wind power project and to highlight the risks that must be controlled by the project developers, project team, supply chain actors, manufacturers, and all the stockholders involved in successful completion of a project.

  16. Quantitative Estimation of Risks for Production Unit Based on OSHMS and Process Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyambayar, D.; Koshijima, I.; Eguchi, H.

    2017-06-01

    Three principal elements in the production field of chemical/petrochemical industry are (i) Production Units, (ii) Production Plant Personnel and (iii) Production Support System (computer system introduced for improving productivity). Each principal element has production process resilience, i.e. a capability to restrain disruptive signals occurred in and out of the production field. In each principal element, risk assessment is indispensable for the production field. In a production facility, the occupational safety and health management system (Hereafter, referred to as OSHMS) has been introduced to reduce a risk of accidents and troubles that may occur during production. In OSHMS, a risk assessment is specified to reduce a potential risk in the production facility such as a factory, and PDCA activities are required for a continual improvement of safety production environments. However, there is no clear statement to adopt the OSHMS standard into the production field. This study introduces a metric to estimate the resilience of the production field by using the resilience generated by the production plant personnel and the result of the risk assessment in the production field. A method for evaluating how OSHMS functions are systematically installed in the production field is also discussed based on the resilience of the three principal elements.

  17. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A; Euling, Susan Y; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA)--i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on "augmentation" of weight of evidence--using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards "integration" of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for "expansion" of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual "reorientation" of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A., E-mail: chiu.weihsueh@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States); Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes.

  19. A quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sex among HIV-seropositive men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerbi, Gemechu B; Habtemariam, Tsegaye; Tameru, Berhanu; Nganwa, David; Robnett, Vinaida

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sexual practices among HIV-seropositive men. A knowledgebase was developed by reviewing different published sources. The data were collected from different sources including Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, selected journals, and reports. The risk pathway scenario tree was developed based on a comprehensive review of published literature. The variables are organized into nine major parameter categories. Monte Carlo simulations for the quantitative risk assessment of HIV/AIDS transmission was executed with the software @Risk 4.0 (Palisade Corporation). Results show that the value for the likelihood of unprotected sex due to having less knowledge about HIV/AIDS and negative attitude toward condom use and safer sex ranged from 1.24 × 10(-5) to 8.47 × 10(-4) with the mean and standard deviation of 1.83 × 10(-4) and 8.63 × 10(-5), respectively. The likelihood of unprotected sex due to having greater anger-hostility, anxiety, less satisfied with aspects of life, and greater depressive symptoms ranged from 2.76 × 10(-9) to 5.34 × 10(-7) with the mean and standard deviation of 5.23 × 10(-8) and 3.58 × 10(-8), respectively. The findings suggest that HIV/AIDS research and intervention programs must be focused on behavior, and the broader setting within which individual risky behaviors occur.

  20. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P.

    2013-01-01

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes

  1. Evaluation of Basel III revision of quantitative standards for implementation of internal models for market risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meera Sharma

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies revisions under Basel III for market risk which allow conservative combination of short and long period Value-at-Risks (VaRs. This is the first study that examines this issue. The performance of the combination method is evaluated through regulatory back tests, unconditional and conditional coverage tests. The combination improves performance in regulatory back tests and tests of unconditional coverage. A common trend is the superior performance of long (1000/750 day in combination with short (190/125 days VaR methods. The combination does not enhance conditional coverage performance. This is the first study on this topic.

  2. Assumptions in quantitative analyses of health risks of overhead power lines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, A.; Wardekker, J.A.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    One of the major issues hampering the formulation of uncontested policy decisions on contemporary risks is the presence of uncertainties in various stages of the policy cycle. In literature, different lines are suggested to address the problem of provisional and uncertain evidence. Reflective

  3. The Age-Specific Quantitative Effects of Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Gitanjali M; Danaei, Goodarz; Farzadfar, Farshad

    2013-01-01

    The effects of systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum total cholesterol (TC), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been established in epidemiological studies, but consistent estimates of effect sizes by age and sex...

  4. Quantitative risk analysis of gas explosions in tunnels; probability, effects, and consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerheijm, J.; Voort, M.M. van der; Verreault, J.; Berg, A.C. van den

    2015-01-01

    Tunnel accidents with transports of combustible liquefied gases may lead to explosions. Depending on the substance involved this can be a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE), a Gas Expansion Explosion (GEE) or a gas explosion. Quantification of the risk of these scenarios is important

  5. Presenting quantitative information about decision outcomes: a risk communication primer for patient decision aid developers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trevena, L.J.; Zikmund-Fisher, B.J.; Edwards, A.; Gaissmaier, W.; Galesic, M.; Han, P.K.J.; King, J.; Lawson, M.L.; Linder, S.K.; Lipkus, I.; Ozanne, E.; Peters, E.; Timmermans, D.R.M.; Woloshin, S.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients' risk perception and leads to better informed decision

  6. Quantitative risk management in gas injection project: a case study from Oman oil and gas industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadem, Mohammad Miftaur Rahman Khan; Piya, Sujan; Shamsuzzoha, Ahm

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this research was to study the recognition, application and quantification of the risks associated in managing projects. In this research, the management of risks in an oil and gas project is studied and implemented within a case company in Oman. In this study, at first, the qualitative data related to risks in the project were identified through field visits and extensive interviews. These data were then translated into numerical values based on the expert's opinion. Further, the numerical data were used as an input to Monte Carlo simulation. RiskyProject Professional™ software was used to simulate the system based on the identified risks. The simulation result predicted a delay of about 2 years as a worse case with no chance of meeting the project's on stream date. Also, it has predicted 8% chance of exceeding the total estimated budget. The result of numerical analysis from the proposed model is validated by comparing it with the result of qualitative analysis, which was obtained through discussion with various project managers of company.

  7. Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways and their Utility to Ecological Risk Assessments of Endangered Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological risk assessments of endangered species are often hampered by a lack of knowledge about the sensitivity of endangered species to chemicals of concern. However, traditional in vivo toxicity testing of endangered species is often not possible for practical and ethical rea...

  8. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  9. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Patient Manual Handling in Wards of One of the Hospitals of Tehran using MAPO Method, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajad Ataei

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Manual handling of disabled patients is one of the important and effective factors in acute low back pain among exposed nurses. The present study was conducted with the objective of quantitative risk assessment of patient manual handling among nurses in wards of one of the hospitals in Tehran using MAPO method. Methods: The present study was conducted as an analytical-cross-sectional study in 26 wards of one of the hospitals in Tehran city. Samples were selected by census method from nurses and paramedics of different wards of hospital. Data collection was performed using demographic information and MAPO checklist. Results: The highest score of MAPO were, respectively, related to wards of DI clinic (score, 14.7, men orthopedic (score, 6.3, and general operating room (score, 57. 53.8% of hospital wards were at the level 2 corrective action, which indicated that the risk of musculoskeletal disorder is 2.4 times higher than level 1 corrective action. Conclusion: Given that the proportion of disabled patient in cooperation and/or partial cooperation, lifting tools, auxiliary, wheelchair, and training have the most role among risk factors for above-mentioned wards, increasing the number of human resources and wheelchair, use of lifting and auxiliary tools and training reduce MAPO score and consequently the risk of musculoskeletal disorders.

  10. Predictive value of quantitative dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy in assessing cardiovascular risk after vascular surgery in diabetes mellitus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lane, S.E.; Lewis, S.M.; Pippin, J.J.; Kosinski, E.J.; Campbell, D.; Nesto, R.W.; Hill, T.

    1989-01-01

    Cardiac complications represent a major risk to patients undergoing vascular surgery. Diabetic patients may be particularly prone to such complications due to the high incidence of concomitant coronary artery disease, the severity of which may be clinically unrecognized. Attempts to stratify groups by clinical criteria have been useful but lack the predictive value of currently used noninvasive techniques such as dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy. One hundred one diabetic patients were evaluated with dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy before undergoing vascular surgery. The incidence of thallium abnormalities was high (80%) and did not correlate with clinical markers of coronary disease. Even in a subgroup of patients with no overt clinical evidence of underlying heart disease, thallium abnormalities were present in 59%. Cardiovascular complications, however, occurred in only 11% of all patients. Statistically significant prediction of risk was not achieved with simple assessment of thallium results as normal or abnormal. Quantification of total number of reversible defects, as well as assessment of ischemia in the distribution of the left anterior descending coronary artery was required for optimum predictive accuracy. The prevalence of dipyridamole-thallium abnormalities in a diabetic population is much higher than that reported in nondiabetic patients and cannot be predicted by usual clinical indicators of heart disease. In addition, cardiovascular risk of vascular surgery can be optimally assessed by quantitative analysis of dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy and identification of high- and low-risk subgroups

  11. Quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in edible vegetable oils marketed in Shandong of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Dafeng; Xin, Chenglong; Li, Wei; Chen, Jindong; Li, Fenghua; Chu, Zunhua; Xiao, Peirui; Shao, Lijun

    2015-09-01

    This work studies on the quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in edible vegetable oils in Shandong, China. The concentrations of 15 PAHs in 242 samples were determined by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection. The results indicated that the mean concentration of 15 PAHs in oil samples was 54.37 μg kg(-1). Low molecular weight PAH compounds were the predominant contamination. Especially, the carcinogenic benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) was detected at a mean concentration of 1.28 μg kg(-1), which was lower than the limit of European Union and China. A preliminary evaluation of human health risk assessment for PAHs was accomplished using BaP toxic equivalency factors and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR). The ILCR values for children, adolescents, adults, and seniors were all larger than 1 × 10(-6), indicating a high potential carcinogenic risk on the dietary exposed populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Presenting quantitative information about decision outcomes: a risk communication primer for patient decision aid developers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients’ risk perception and leads to better informed decision making. This paper summarises current “best practices” in communication of evidence-based numeric outcomes for developers of patient decision aids (PtDAs) and other health communication tools. Method An expert consensus group of fourteen researchers from North America, Europe, and Australasia identified eleven main issues in risk communication. Two experts for each issue wrote a “state of the art” summary of best evidence, drawing on the PtDA, health, psychological, and broader scientific literature. In addition, commonly used terms were defined and a set of guiding principles and key messages derived from the results. Results The eleven key components of risk communication were: 1) Presenting the chance an event will occur; 2) Presenting changes in numeric outcomes; 3) Outcome estimates for test and screening decisions; 4) Numeric estimates in context and with evaluative labels; 5) Conveying uncertainty; 6) Visual formats; 7) Tailoring estimates; 8) Formats for understanding outcomes over time; 9) Narrative methods for conveying the chance of an event; 10) Important skills for understanding numerical estimates; and 11) Interactive web-based formats. Guiding principles from the evidence summaries advise that risk communication formats should reflect the task required of the user, should always define a relevant reference class (i.e., denominator) over time, should aim to use a consistent format throughout documents, should avoid “1 in x” formats and variable denominators, consider the magnitude of numbers used and the possibility of format bias, and should take into account the numeracy and graph literacy of the audience. Conclusion A substantial and

  13. Screening techniques, sustainability and risk adjusted returns. : - A quantitative study on the Swedish equity funds market

    OpenAIRE

    Ögren, Tobias; Forslund, Petter

    2017-01-01

    Previous studies have primarily compared the performance of sustainable equity funds and non-sustainable equity funds. A meta-analysis over 85 different studies in the field concludes that there is no statistically significant difference in risk-adjusted returns when comparing sustainable funds and non-sustainable funds. This study is thus an extension on previous studies where the authors have chosen to test the two most common sustainability screening techniques to test if there is a differ...

  14. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinet, Christelle; Kehlenbeck, Hella; Kriticos, Darren J; Baker, Richard H A; Battisti, Andrea; Brunel, Sarah; Dupin, Maxime; Eyre, Dominic; Faccoli, Massimo; Ilieva, Zhenya; Kenis, Marc; Knight, Jon; Reynaud, Philippe; Yart, Annie; van der Werf, Wopke

    2012-01-01

    Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens). Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  15. Hormone Replacement Therapy and Risk of Breast Cancer in Korean Women: A Quantitative Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Myon Bae

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer incidence by age group in Korean women are unique. This systematic review aimed to investigate the association between hormone replacement therapy (HRT and breast cancer risk in Korean women. Methods: We searched electronic databases such as KoreaMed, KMbase, KISS, and RISS4U as well as PubMed for publications on Korean breast cancer patients. We also conducted manual searching based on references and citations in potential papers. All of the analytically epidemiologic studies that obtained individual data on HRT exposure and breast cancer occurrence in Korean women were selected. We restricted the inclusion of case-control studies to those that included age-matched controls. Estimates of summary odds ratio (SOR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated using random effect models. Results: One cohort and five case-control studies were finally selected. Based on the heterogeneity that existed among the six studies (I-squared=70.2%, a random effect model was applied. The summary effect size of HRT history from the six articles indicated no statistical significance in breast cancer risk (SOR, 0.983; 95% CI, 0.620 to 1.556. Conclusions: These facts support no significant effect of HRT history in the risk of breast cancer in Korean women. It is necessary to conduct a pooled analysis.

  16. A quantitative approach to the risk perception associated with nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Black, S.

    2015-01-01

    Subjective risk perception associated with nuclear safety is hard-wired into the general public psyche; but as real as this 'feels', and as much as it requires to be respected in a democracy, misguided risk perception on nuclear safety can create its own perils for humans. The objective of this paper is to create a better understanding of the phenomena of risk perception associated with nuclear safety presented by journalistic media. It will attempt to quantify the manifestation of risk perception associated with nuclear safety by providing comparison between the media coverage of nuclear and industrial accidents of similar magnitude. It will utilise the Fog Index, a mathematical formula that defines the readability of an article, allowing for an unbiased numerical comparison on 'readability' to be derived. Fog Index is expressed as: Fog Index = 0.4(N/S + 100*L/N), where N is the number of words in the article, S is the number of sentences and L is the number of words with 3 syllables or more. To provide consistency, the medium chosen to compare industrial accidents are reports extracted from 'The Times' newspaper, written at the time of the accidents and concerning Chernobyl and Bhopal disasters. 'The Times' is respected newspaper, written for a knowledgeable audience who have an in-depth interest in the news from the UK and abroad; subsequently this causes it to have a relatively high Fog index, compared to its tabloid counterparts. The higher the Fog Index, the more education the reader requires to fully understand the article, a Fog Index of 12 is the limit for the majority of the general public. Research found that reporting of nuclear safety accidents has a Fog Index of approximately 14 while it was only of 10 for Bhopal accident. These values go someway in demonstrating that the complexity of media information on nuclear safety transferred via journalistic media is beyond what can reasonably be expected to be

  17. Application of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to analyze the public health risk from poor drinking water quality in a low income area in Accra, Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machdar, E; van der Steen, N P; Raschid-Sally, L; Lens, P N L

    2013-04-01

    In Accra, Ghana, a majority of inhabitants lives in over-crowded areas with limited access to piped water supply, which is often also intermittent. This study assessed in a densely populated area the risk from microbial contamination of various sources of drinking water, by conducting a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk to human health from microorganism exposure and dose-response relationships. Furthermore the cost-effectiveness in reducing the disease burden through targeted interventions was evaluated. Five risk pathways for drinking water were identified through a survey (110 families), namely household storage, private yard taps, communal taps, communal wells and water sachets. Samples from each source were analyzed for Escherichia coli and Ascaris contamination. Published ratios between E. coli and other pathogens were used for the QMRA and disease burden calculations. The major part of the burden of disease originated from E. coli O157:H7 (78%) and the least important contributor was Cryptosporidium (0.01%). Other pathogens contributed 16% (Campylobacter), 5% (Rotavirus) and 0.3% (Ascaris). The sum of the disease burden of these pathogens was 0.5 DALYs per person per year, which is much higher than the WHO reference level. The major contamination pathway was found to be household storage. Disinfection of water at household level was the most cost-effective intervention (Water supply network improvements were significantly less cost-effective. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Quantitative muscle hardness as a noninvasive means for detecting patients at risk of compartment syndromes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinberg, Bruce; Riel, Ryan; Armitage, Marshal; Berrey, Hudson

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to study the efficacy of quantitative muscle hardness (QH) curve analysis for noninvasive measurement of muscle compartment interstitial pressure (IMP), and to eliminate the need for a comparison normal QH measurement to determine a pathologic reading. Elevation of IMP may lead to limb compartment syndrome, which may result in irreversible dysfunction, chronic pain and contracture. Two studies were performed by two separate independent examiners on male volunteers, where IMP measurements and QH curves were obtained. QH curves were divided into three parts comparing the third part to the second part using the coefficient of determination (R 2 ). In 205 limb compartments, there were 1432 comparison readings of the IMP versus R 2 . Using receiver operator characteristic curve analysis for all data from both studies, an R 2 cutoff of 0.974 best corresponded to a pathologic IMP of 50 mmHg. For both sets of data and for each compartment tested, the mean IMP values were statistically different (t-test: P < 0.0001) for the group with R 2 values less than 0.974 compared to the group of R 2 values greater than or equal to 0.974. In addition, a pressure prediction model was formulated with a strong overall correlation coefficient of 0.78. The data of this study support that QH analysis is potentially useful for the monitoring of IMP elevation in compartment syndrome

  19. Currency risk and prices of oil and petroleum products: a simulation with a quantitative model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aniasi, L.; Ottavi, D.; Rubino, E.; Saracino, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between the exchange rates of the US Dollar against the four major European currencies and the prices of oil and its main products in those countries. In fact, the sensitivity of the prices to the exchange rate movements is of fundamental importance for the refining and distribution industries of importing countries. The result of the analysis shows that in neither free market conditions, as those present in Great Britain, France and Germany, nor in regulated markets, i.e. the italian one, do the variations of petroleum product prices fully absorb the variation of the exchange rates. In order to assess the above relationship, we first tested the order of co-integration of the time series of exchange rates of EMS currencies with those of international prices of oil and its derivative products; then we used a transfer-function model to reproduce the quantitative relationships between those variables. Using these results, we then reproduced domestic price functions with partial adjustment mechanisms. Finally, we used the above model to run a simulation of the deviation from the steady-state pattern caused by exchange-rate exogenous shocks. 21 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  20. Quantitative risk assessment via uncertainty analysis in combination with error propagation for the determination of the dynamic Design Space of the primary drying step during freeze-drying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Bockstal, Pieter Jan; Mortier, Séverine Thérèse F.C.; Corver, Jos

    2017-01-01

    of a freeze-drying process, allowing to quantitatively estimate and control the risk of cake collapse (i.e., the Risk of Failure (RoF)). The propagation of the error on the estimation of the thickness of the dried layer Ldried as function of primary drying time was included in the uncertainty analysis...

  1. Human-Associated Fecal Quantitative Polymerase Chain ReactionMeasurements and Simulated Risk of Gastrointestinal Illness in Recreational Waters Contaminated with Raw Sewage

    Science.gov (United States)

    We used quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness associated with swimming in recreational waters containing different concentrations of human-associated fecal qPCR markers from raw sewage– HF183 and HumM2. The volume/volu...

  2. Caramel color in soft drinks and exposure to 4-methylimidazole: a quantitative risk assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler J S Smith

    Full Text Available Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI, a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California's Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L, lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day, lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4 and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years; Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases. 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing

  3. Quantitative assessment of the risk of introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus in Danish dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foddai, Alessandro; Boklund, Anette; Stockmarr, Anders

    2014-01-01

    trees were made to evaluate the importance of the various BVDV introductionroutes. With the current surveillance system, the risk of BVDV introduction was estimatedto one or more introductions within a median of nine years (3–59). However, if all importedanimals were tested and hoof trimmers always...... disinfected the tools used abroad, the riskcould be reduced to one or more introductions within 33 years (8–200). Results of thisstudy can be used to improve measures of BVD surveillance and prophylaxis in Danishdairy herds....

  4. A quantitative screening-level approach to incorporate chemical exposure and risk into alternative assessment evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Scott M; Greggs, Bill; Goyak, Katy O; Landenberger, Bryce D; Mason, Ann M; Howard, Brett; Zaleski, Rosemary T

    2017-11-01

    As the general public and retailers ask for disclosure of chemical ingredients in the marketplace, a number of hazard screening tools were developed to evaluate the so-called "greenness" of individual chemical ingredients and/or formulations. The majority of these tools focus only on hazard, often using chemical lists, ignoring the other part of the risk equation: exposure. Using a hazard-only focus can result in regrettable substitutions, changing 1 chemical ingredient for another that turns out to be more hazardous or shifts the toxicity burden to others. To minimize the incidents of regrettable substitutions, BizNGO describes "Common Principles" to frame a process for informed substitution. Two of these 6 principles are: "reduce hazard" and "minimize exposure." A number of frameworks have emerged to evaluate and assess alternatives. One framework developed by leading experts under the auspices of the US National Academy of Sciences recommended that hazard and exposure be specifically addressed in the same step when assessing candidate alternatives. For the alternative assessment community, this article serves as an informational resource for considering exposure in an alternatives assessment using elements of problem formulation; product identity, use, and composition; hazard analysis; exposure analysis; and risk characterization. These conceptual elements build on practices from government, academia, and industry and are exemplified through 2 hypothetical case studies demonstrating the questions asked and decisions faced in new product development. These 2 case studies-inhalation exposure to a generic paint product and environmental exposure to a shampoo rinsed down the drain-demonstrate the criteria, considerations, and methods required to combine exposure models addressing human health and environmental impacts to provide a screening level hazard and exposure (risk) analysis. This article informs practices for these elements within a comparative risk context

  5. Caramel color in soft drinks and exposure to 4-methylimidazole: a quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Tyler J S; Wolfson, Julia A; Jiao, Ding; Crupain, Michael J; Rangan, Urvashi; Sapkota, Amir; Bleich, Sara N; Nachman, Keeve E

    2015-01-01

    Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI), a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California's Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day) carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York) in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions) and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L), lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day), lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4) and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years); Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases). 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing exposure to

  6. Caramel Color in Soft Drinks and Exposure to 4-Methylimidazole: A Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Tyler J. S.; Wolfson, Julia A.; Jiao, Ding; Crupain, Michael J.; Rangan, Urvashi; Sapkota, Amir; Bleich, Sara N.; Nachman, Keeve E.

    2015-01-01

    Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI), a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California’s Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day) carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York) in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions) and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L), lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day), lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4) and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years); Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases). 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing exposure

  7. Farm to Fork Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes Contamination in Raw and Pasteurized Milk Cheese in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Uma; Cummins, Enda; Valero, Antonio; Walsh, Des; Dalmasso, Marion; Jordan, Kieran; Duffy, Geraldine

    2015-06-01

    The objective of this study was to model and quantify the level of Listeria monocytogenes in raw milk cheese (RMc) and pasteurized milk cheese (PMc) from farm to fork using a Bayesian inference approach combined with a quantitative risk assessment. The modeling approach included a prediction of contamination arising from the farm environment as well from cross-contamination within the cheese-processing facility through storage and subsequent human exposure. The model predicted a high concentration of L. monocytogenes in contaminated RMc (mean 2.19 log10 CFU/g) compared to PMc (mean -1.73 log10 CFU/g). The mean probability of illness (P1 for low-risk population, LR) and (P2 for high-risk population, HR, e.g., immunocompromised) adult Irish consumers following exposure to contaminated cheese was 7 × 10(-8) (P1 ) and 9 × 10(-4) (P2 ) for RMc and 7 × 10(-10) (P1 ) and 8 × 10(-6) (P2 ) for PMc, respectively. In addition, the model was used to evaluate performance objectives at various stages, namely, the cheese making and ripening stages, and to set a food safety objective at the time of consumption. A scenario analysis predicted various probabilities of L. monocytogenes contamination along the cheese-processing chain for both RMc and PMc. The sensitivity analysis showed the critical factors for both cheeses were the serving size of the cheese, storage time, and temperature at the distribution stage. The developed model will allow food processors and policymakers to identify the possible routes of contamination along the cheese-processing chain and to reduce the risk posed to human health. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Quantitative risk assessment of E. coli in street-vended cassava-based delicacies in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesias, I. C. P.

    2018-01-01

    In the Philippines, rootcrop-based food products are gaining popularity in street food trade. However, a number of street-vended food products in the country are reported to be contaminated with E. coli posing possible risk among consumers. In this study, information on quantitative risk assessment of E. coli in street-vended cassava-based delicacies was generated. The assessment started with the prevalence and concentration of E. coli at post production in packages of the cassava-based delicacies. Combase growth predictor was used to trace the microbial population of E. coli in each step of the food chain. The @Risk software package, version 6 (Palisade USA) was used to run the simulations. Scenarios in the post-production to consumption pathway were simulated. The effect was then assessed in relation to exposure to the defined infective dose. In the worst case scenario, a minimum and most likely concentration of 6.3 and 7.8 log CFU of E. coli per serving respectively were observed. The simulation revealed that lowering the temperature in the chain considerably decreased the E. coli concentration prior to consumption and subsequently decreased the percentage of exposure to the infective dose. Exposure to infective dose however was increased with longer lag time from postproduction to consumption.

  9. A Statistical-Probabilistic Pattern for Determination of Tunnel Advance Step by Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    sasan ghorbani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the main challenges faced in design and construction phases of tunneling projects is the determination of maximum allowable advance step to maximize excavation rate and reduce project delivery time. Considering the complexity of determining this factor and unexpected risks associated with inappropriate determination of that, it is necessary to employ a method which is capable of accounting for interactions among uncertain geotechnical parameters and advance step. The main objective in the present research is to undertake optimization and risk management of advance step length in water diversion tunnel at Shahriar Dam based on uncertainty of geotechnical parameters following a statistic-probabilistic approach. In the present research, in order to determine optimum advance step for excavation operation, two hybrid methods were used: strength reduction method-discrete element method- Monte Carlo simulation (SRM/DEM/MCS and strength reduction method- discrete element method- point estimate method (SRM/DEM/PEM. Moreover, Taguchi analysis was used to investigate the sensitivity of advance step to changes in statistical distribution function of input parameters under three tunneling scenarios at sections of poor to good qualities (as per RMR classification system. Final results implied the optimality of the advance step defined in scenario 2 where 2 m advance per excavation round was proposed, according to shear strain criterion and SRM/DEM/MCS, with minimum failure probability and risk of 8.05% and 75281.56 $, respectively, at 95% confidence level. Moreover, in either of normal, lognormal, and gamma distributions, as the advance step increased from Scenario 1 to 2, failure probability was observed to increase at lower rate than that observed when advance step in scenario 2 was increased to that In Scenario 3. In addition, Taguchi tests were subjected to signal-to-noise analysis and the results indicated that, considering the three statistical

  10. Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenquist, Hanne; Nielsen, N. L.; Sommer, Helle Mølgaard

    2003-01-01

    covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules...... was integrated with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to provide a risk estimate. Simulations designed to predict the effect of different mitigation strategies showed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of chicken meals could be reduced 30 times by introducing a 2 log reduction...... of the number of Campylobacter on the chicken carcasses. To obtain a similar reduction of the incidence, the flock prevalence should be reduced approximately 30 times or the kitchen hygiene improved approximately 30 times. Cross-contamination from positive to negative flocks during slaughter had almost...

  11. Benefits of quantitative gated SPECT in evaluation of perioperative cardiac risk in noncardiac surgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Koji; Ohsumi, Yukio; Abe, Hirohiko; Hattori, Masahito; Minatoguchi, Shinya; Fujiwara, Hisayoshi

    2007-01-01

    Gated single-photon emission computed tomography (G-SPECT) was used to evaluate cardiac risk associated with noncardiac surgery and determine the benefits and indications of this technique for this type of surgery. Patients scheduled to undergo noncardiac surgery under the supervision of anesthesiologists and subjected to preoperative cardiac evaluation using G-SPECT during the 26-month period between June 2000 and August 2002 were followed for the presence/absence of cardiac events (id est (i.e.), cardiac death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, congestive heart failure, or fatal arrhythmia) during surgery and the postoperative period until discharged. Relationships between the occurrence of cardiac events and preoperative G-SPECT findings were evaluated. A total of 39 patients underwent G-SPECT; 6 of the 39 exhibited abnormal ejection fraction (left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)≤50%) and end-systolic volume (end-systolic volume (ESV)≥50 ml). Surgery was suspended for three of these six patients and cardiac events developed in the remaining three patients. Both abnormal perfusion images (PI) and abnormal wall thickening (WT) were observed in all six patients. All six patients exhibited abnormal LVEF and/or ESV. Three patients had either abnormal PI or WT, and a cardiac event occurred in one of them. Of the five patients who experienced cardiac events during or after surgery, two exhibited a short run of ventricular tachycardia requiring a continuous administering of antiarrhythmic drugs, whereas the remaining three patients exhibited cardiac failure requiring inotropic support following surgery. The results of this study indicate that the occurrence of perioperative cardiac events can be predicted by considering the severity of expected surgical stress and preoperative G-SPECT findings for LVEF, PI, and WT. We conclude that G-SPECT is quite useful for cardiac risk assessment in patients undergoing noncardiac

  12. Comparative measurement and quantitative risk assessment of alcohol consumption through wastewater-based epidemiology: An international study in 20 cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryu, Yeonsuk; Barceló, Damià; Barron, Leon P.

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative measurement of drug consumption biomarkers in wastewater can provide objective information on community drug use patterns and trends. This study presents the measurement of alcohol consumption in 20 cities across 11 countries through the use of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE...... consumption biomarker, ethyl sulfate (EtS) was determined by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. The EtS concentrations were used for estimation of per capita alcohol consumption in each city, which was further compared with international reports and applied for risk assessment by MOE....... The average per capita consumption in 20 cities ranged between 6.4 and 44.3. L/day/1000 inhabitants. An increase in alcohol consumption during the weekend occurred in all cities, however the level of this increase was found to differ. In contrast to conventional data (sales statistics and interviews), WBE...

  13. Quantitative structure-activity relationships for predicting potential ecological hazard of organic chemicals for use in regulatory risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comber, Mike H I; Walker, John D; Watts, Chris; Hermens, Joop

    2003-08-01

    The use of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) for deriving the predicted no-effect concentration of discrete organic chemicals for the purposes of conducting a regulatory risk assessment in Europe and the United States is described. In the United States, under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the TSCA Interagency Testing Committee and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) use SARs to estimate the hazards of existing and new chemicals. Within the Existing Substances Regulation in Europe, QSARs may be used for data evaluation, test strategy indications, and the identification and filling of data gaps. To illustrate where and when QSARs may be useful and when their use is more problematic, an example, methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), is given and the predicted and experimental data are compared. Improvements needed for new QSARs and tools for developing and using QSARs are discussed.

  14. Specialist antenatal clinics for women at high risk of preterm birth: a systematic review of qualitative and quantitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malouf, Reem; Redshaw, Maggie

    2017-02-02

    Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Women with previous prenatal loss are at higher risk of preterm birth. A specialist antenatal clinic is considered as one approach to improve maternity and pregnancy outcomes. A systematic review of quantitative, qualitative and mixed method studies conducted on women at high risk of preterm birth (PTB). The review primary outcomes were to report on the specialist antenatal clinics effect in preventing or reducing preterm birth, perinatal mortality and morbidity and women's perceptions and experiences of a specialist clinic whether compared or not compared with standard antenatal care. Other secondary maternal, infant and economic outcomes were also determined. A comprehensive search strategy was carried out in English within electronic databases as far back as 1980. The reviewers selected studies, assessed the quality, and extracted data independently. Results were summarized and tabulated. Eleven studies fully met the review inclusion criteria, ten were quantitative design studies and only one was a qualitative design study. No mixed method design study was included in the review. All were published after 1989, seven were conducted in the USA and four in the UK. Results from five good to low quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs), all conducted before 1990, did not illustrate the efficacy of the clinic in reducing preterm birth. Whereas results from more recent low quality cohort studies showed some positive neonatal outcomes. Themes from one good quality qualitative study reflected on the emotional and psychological need to reduce anxiety and stress of women referred to such a clinic. Women expressed their negative emotional responses at being labelled as high risk and positive responses to being assessed and treated in the clinic. Women also reported that their partners were struggling to cope emotionally. Findings from this review were mixed. Evidence from cohort studies

  15. Use of static Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to determine pathogen risks in an unconfined carbonate aquifer used for Managed Aquifer Recharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toze, Simon; Bekele, Elise; Page, Declan; Sidhu, Jatinder; Shackleton, Mark

    2010-02-01

    Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is becoming a mechanism used for recycling treated wastewater and captured urban stormwater and is being used as a treatment barrier to remove contaminants such as pathogens from the recharged water. There is still a need, however, to demonstrate the effectiveness of MAR to reduce any residual risk of pathogens in the recovered water. A MAR research site recharging secondary treated wastewater in an unconfined carbonate aquifer was used in conjunction with a static Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to assess the microbial pathogen risk in the recovered water following infiltration and aquifer passage. The research involved undertaking a detailed hydrogeological assessment of the aquifer at the MAR site and determining the decay rates of reference pathogens from an in-situ decay study. These variables along with literature data were then used in the static QMRA which demonstrated that the recovered water at this site did not meet the Australian Guidelines for recycled water when used for differing private green space irrigation scenarios. The results also confirmed the importance of obtaining local hydrogeological data as local heterogeneity can influence of residence time in the aquifer which, in turn, influences the outcomes. The research demonstrated that a static QMRA can be used to determine the residual risk from pathogens in recovered water and showed that it can be a valuable tool in the preliminary design and operation of MAR systems and the incorporation of complementary engineered treatment processes to ensure that there is acceptable health risk from the recovered water. Crown Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A quantitative measure of diabetes risk in community practice impacts clinical decisions: the PREVAIL initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, B R; Cox, M; Inzucchi, S E; Foody, J M; Zimmer, L O; Jorge, C B; Ratner, R E; Barringer, T A; McGuire, D K; Peterson, E D

    2014-04-01

    While predictive tools are being developed to identify those at highest risk for developing diabetes, little is known whether these assays affect clinical care. Thirty sites who used the PreDx(®) (Tethys BioScience, Emeryville, CA) abstracted clinical information from baseline clinic visits prior to a PreDx test and from the most recent visit at time of abstraction. All visits occurred between May 2008-April 2011 (median follow-up 198 days, IQR 124-334). The primary analysis was the influence of the PreDx test (5-year diabetes prediction) on subsequent care; descriptive statistics were used to summarize baseline and follow-up variables. Overall 913 patients with 2 abstracted visits were included. Relative to baseline, median SBP decreased 1.5 mmHg (p = 0.039), DBP decreased 2 mmHg (p < 0.001), LDL-C decreased 4 mg/dL (p = 0.009), and HDL-C increased 2 mg/dL (p < 0.001) at follow-up. Behavioral or lifestyle counseling was not significantly different from baseline to follow-up (71.2% vs. 68.1% (p = 0.077), but BMI was lower by 0.2 kg/m(2) at follow up (p = 0.013). At follow-up, more patients were prescribed metformin (13.7% vs. 9.7%, p < 0.001). A higher PreDx score was significantly associated with metformin prescription (p = 0.0003), lifestyle counseling (p = 0.0099), and a lower BMI at follow-up (p = 0.007). The use of a prognostic test in patients perceived to be high risk for diabetes was associated with a modest but significant increase in the prescription of metformin and lifestyle interventions and a reduction in BMI. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Host cell proteins in biologics development: Identification, quantitation and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xing; Hunter, Alan K; Mozier, Ned M

    2009-06-15

    Host cell proteins (HCPs) are those produced or encoded by the organisms and unrelated to the intended recombinant product. Some are necessary for growth, survival, and normal cellular processing whereas others may be non-essential, simply carried along as baggage. Like the recombinant product, HCPs may also be modified by the host with a number of post-translational modifications. Regardless of the utility, or lack thereof, HCPs are undesirable in the final drug substance. Though commonly present in small quantities (parts per million expressed as nanograms per milligrams of the intended recombinant protein) much effort and cost is expended by industry to remove them. The purpose of this review is to summarize what is of relevance in regards to the biology, the impact of genomics and proteomics on HCP evaluation, the regulatory expectations, analytical approaches, and various methodologies to remove HCPs with bioprocessing. Historical data, bioinformatics approaches and industrial case study examples are provided. Finally, a proposal for a risk assessment tool is provided which brings these facets together and proposes a means for manufacturers to classify and organize a control strategy leading to meaningful product specifications. 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Quantitation of the critically ischemic zone at risk during acute coronary occlusion using PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merhige, M.; Garza, D.; Sease, D.; Rowe, R.W.; Tewson, T.; Emran, A.; Bolomey, L.; Gould, K.L.

    1991-01-01

    Critical myocardial ischemia has been defined experimentally during acute coronary occlusion as flow reduction of 50% or more since cellular ATP depletion begins to occur beyond this flow reduction threshold, placing tissue at risk of cellular injury. To test the hypothesis that critically ischemic fractional left ventricular mass can be measured noninvasively with PET, nine dogs were imaged in a multi-slice positron camera using the perfusion tracer 13N-ammonia, while radiolabeled microspheres were injected into the left atrium during acute coronary occlusion. Images were processed using a 50% threshold and the size of the resulting perfusion defect was expressed as a fraction of total left ventricular image volume. The critically ischemic left ventricular fraction determined in vitro from the microsphere perfusion data, ranged from 5% to 30% of the total left ventricular weight and correlated closely with that determined noninvasively by PET with r = 0.94 (y = 1.05X - 2.0%). The authors conclude that the fraction of left ventricular myocardium rendered critically ischemic during acute coronary occlusion can be measured accurately and noninvasively in vivo using perfusion imaging with positron emission tomography

  19. Rapid Quantification of Viable Campylobacter Bacteria on Chicken Carcasses, Using Real-Time PCR and Propidium Monoazide Treatment, as a Tool for Quantitative Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Mathilde Hartmann; Löfström, Charlotta; Hansen, Tina Beck

    2010-01-01

    A number of intervention strategies against Campylobacter contaminated poultry focus on post-slaughter reduction of the number of cells, emphasizing the need for rapid and reliable quantitative detection of only viable Campylobacter. We present a new and rapid quantitative approach for enumeration...... method does not detect DNA from dead Campylobacter, but recognises the infectious potential of the VBNC state, and is thereby able to assess the effect of control strategies, and provide trustworthy data for risk assessment....

  20. Risks to Birds Traded for African Traditional Medicine: A Quantitative Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Vivienne L.; Cunningham, Anthony B.; Kemp, Alan C.; Bruyns, Robin K.

    2014-01-01

    Few regional or continent-wide assessments of bird use for traditional medicine have been attempted anywhere in the world. Africa has the highest known diversity of bird species used for this purpose. This study assesses the vulnerability of 354 bird species used for traditional medicine in 25 African countries, from 205 genera, 70 families, and 25 orders. The orders most represented were Passeriformes (107 species), Falconiformes (45 species), and Coraciiformes (24 species), and the families Accipitridae (37 species), Ardeidae (15 species), and Bucerotidae (12 species). The Barn owl (Tyto alba) was the most widely sold species (seven countries). The similarity of avifaunal orders traded is high (analogous to “morphospecies”, and using Sørensen's index), which suggests opportunities for a common understanding of cultural factors driving demand. The highest similarity was between bird orders sold in markets of Benin vs. Burkina Faso (90%), but even bird orders sold in two geographically separated countries (Benin vs. South Africa and Nigeria vs. South Africa) were 87% and 81% similar, respectively. Rabinowitz's “7 forms of rarity” model, used to group species according to commonness or rarity, indicated that 24% of traded bird species are very common, locally abundant in several habitats, and occur over a large geographical area, but 10% are rare, occur in low numbers in specific habitats, and over a small geographical area. The order with the highest proportion of rare species was the Musophagiformes. An analysis of species mass (as a proxy for size) indicated that large and/or conspicuous species tend to be targeted by harvesters for the traditional medicine trade. Furthermore, based on cluster analyses for species groups of similar risk, vultures, hornbills, and other large avifauna, such as bustards, are most threatened by selective harvesting and should be prioritised for conservation action. PMID:25162700

  1. Risks to birds traded for African traditional medicine: a quantitative assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivienne L Williams

    Full Text Available Few regional or continent-wide assessments of bird use for traditional medicine have been attempted anywhere in the world. Africa has the highest known diversity of bird species used for this purpose. This study assesses the vulnerability of 354 bird species used for traditional medicine in 25 African countries, from 205 genera, 70 families, and 25 orders. The orders most represented were Passeriformes (107 species, Falconiformes (45 species, and Coraciiformes (24 species, and the families Accipitridae (37 species, Ardeidae (15 species, and Bucerotidae (12 species. The Barn owl (Tyto alba was the most widely sold species (seven countries. The similarity of avifaunal orders traded is high (analogous to "morphospecies", and using Sørensen's index, which suggests opportunities for a common understanding of cultural factors driving demand. The highest similarity was between bird orders sold in markets of Benin vs. Burkina Faso (90%, but even bird orders sold in two geographically separated countries (Benin vs. South Africa and Nigeria vs. South Africa were 87% and 81% similar, respectively. Rabinowitz's "7 forms of rarity" model, used to group species according to commonness or rarity, indicated that 24% of traded bird species are very common, locally abundant in several habitats, and occur over a large geographical area, but 10% are rare, occur in low numbers in specific habitats, and over a small geographical area. The order with the highest proportion of rare species was the Musophagiformes. An analysis of species mass (as a proxy for size indicated that large and/or conspicuous species tend to be targeted by harvesters for the traditional medicine trade. Furthermore, based on cluster analyses for species groups of similar risk, vultures, hornbills, and other large avifauna, such as bustards, are most threatened by selective harvesting and should be prioritised for conservation action.

  2. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for an Underground Blowout Scenario in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) Well

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyagi, M.; Zulqarnain, M.

    2017-12-01

    Offshore oil and gas exploration and production operations, involve the use of some of the cutting edge and challenging technologies of the modern time. These technological complex operations involves the risk of major accidents as well, which have been demonstrated by disasters such as the explosion and fire on the UK production platform piper alpha, the Canadian semi-submersible drilling rig Ocean Ranger and the explosion and capsizing of Deepwater horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico. By conducting Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), safety of various operations as well as their associated risks and significance during the entire life phase of an offshore project can be quantitatively estimated. In an underground blowout, the uncontrolled formation fluids from higher pressure formation may charge up shallower overlying low pressure formations or may migrate to sea floor. Consequences of such underground blowouts range from no visible damage at the surface to the complete loss of well, loss of drilling rig, seafloor subsidence or hydrocarbons discharged to the environment. These blowouts might go unnoticed until the over pressured sands, which are the result of charging from higher pressure reservoir due to an underground blowout. Further, engineering formulas used to estimate the fault permeability and thickness are very simple in nature and may add to uncertainty in the estimated parameters. In this study the potential of a deepwater underground blowout are assessed during drilling life phase of a well in Popeye-Genesis field reservoir in the Gulf of Mexico to estimate the time taken to charge a shallower zone to its leak-off test (LOT) value. Parametric simulation results for selected field case show that for relatively high permeability (k = 40mD) fault connecting a deep over-pressured zone to a shallower low-pressure zone of similar reservoir volumes, the time to recharge the shallower zone up to its threshold LOT value is about 135 years. If the ratio of the

  3. Quantitative weight of evidence assessment of higher tier studies on the toxicity and risks of neonicotinoids in honeybees. 3. Clothianidin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Keith R; Stephenson, Gladys L

    2017-01-01

    A quantitative weight of evidence (QWoE) methodology was used to assess higher tier studies on the effects of clothianidin (CTD) on honeybees. Assessment endpoints were population size and viability of commercially managed bees and quantity of hive products. A colony-level no-observed-adverse effect concentration (NOAEC) of 25 µg CTD/kg syrup, equivalent to an oral no-observed-adverse effect-dose (NOAED) of 7.3 ng/bee/d for all responses measured. Based on a NOAEC of 19.7 µg/kg pollen, the NOAED for honeybee larvae was 2.4 ng/bee larva/d. For exposures via dust, a no-observed-adverse effect rate of 4 g CTD/ha was used to assess relevance of exposures via deposition of dust. The overall weight of evidence suggested that there is minimal risk to honeybees from exposure to CTD from its use as a seed treatment. For exposures via dust, dust/seed and dust/foliar applications, there were no exposures greater than the NOAED for CTD in nectar and pollen, indicating a de minimis risk to honeybees when the route of exposure was via uptake in plants. Analysis of effect studies in the field indicated a consistent lack of relevant effects, regardless of the way CTD was applied. For exposures via dust, there were no adverse effects because of these applications and there were no exposures greater than the NOAED for CTD in nectar and pollen. The overall weight of evidence based on many studies indicated no adverse effects on colony viability or survival of the colony. Thus, the overall conclusion is that clothianidin, as currently used in good agricultural practices, does not present a significant risk to honeybees at the level of the colony.

  4. Quantitative risk assessment of WSSV transmission through partial harvesting and transport practices for shrimp aquaculture in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Zazueta, Edgar; Martínez-Cordero, Francisco Javier; Chávez-Sánchez, María Cristina; Montoya-Rodríguez, Leobardo

    2017-10-01

    This quantitative risk assessment provided an analytical framework to estimate white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) transmission risks in the following different scenarios: (1) partial harvest from rearing ponds and (2) post-harvest transportation, assuming that the introduction of contaminated water with viral particles into shrimp culture ponds is the main source of viral transmission risk. Probabilities of infecting shrimp with waterborne WSSV were obtained by approaching the functional form that best fits (likelihood ratio test) published data on the dose-response relationship for WSSV orally inoculated through water into shrimp. Expert opinion defined the ranges for the following uncertain factors: (1) the concentrations of WSSV in the water spilled from the vehicles transporting the infected shrimp, (2) the total volume of these spills, and (3) the dilution into culture ponds. Multiple scenarios were analysed, starting with a viral load (VL) of 1×10 2 mL -1 in the contaminated water spilled that reached the culture pond, whose probability of infection of an individual shrimp (P i ) was negligible (1.7×10 -7 ). Increasing the VL to 1×10 4.5 mL -1 and 1×10 7 mL -1 yielded results into very low (P i =5.3×10 -5 ) and high risk (P i =1.6×10 -2 ) categories, respectively. Furthermore, different pond stocking density (SD) scenarios (20 and 30 post-larvae [PL]/m 2 ) were evaluated, and the probability of infection of at least one out of the total number of shrimp exposed (P N ) was derived; for the scenarios with a low VL (1×10 2 mL -1 ), the P N remained at a negligible risk level (P N , 2.4×10 -7 to 1.8×10 -6 ). For most of the scenarios with the moderate VL (1×10 4.5 mL -1 ), the P N scaled up to a low risk category (P N , 1.1×10 -4 to 5.6×10 -4 ), whereas for the scenarios with a high VL (1×10 7 mL -1 ), the risk levels were high (P N , 2.3×10 -2 to 3.5×10 -2 ) or very high (P N , 1.1×10 -1 to 1.6×10 -1 ) depending on the volume of contaminated water

  5. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) shows increased public health risk associated with exposure to river water under conditions of riverbed sediment resuspension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abia, Akebe Luther King; Ubomba-Jaswa, Eunice; Genthe, Bettina; Momba, Maggy Ndombo Benteke

    2016-10-01

    Although higher microbial concentrations have been reported in sediments than in the overlying water column, most quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) studies have not clearly indicated the contribution of sediment-borne pathogens to estimated risks. Thus, the present study aimed at determining the public health risk associated with exposure to pathogenic bacteria in polluted river water under undisturbed conditions and conditions of sediment resuspension in the Apies River, Gauteng, South Africa. Microbial pathogens were isolated and identified using culture and molecular methods. The beta-Poisson dose-response model was used to estimate the probability of infection (Pi) with the various pathogens, following accidental/intentional ingestion of 1mL or 100mL (or 50mL) of untreated river water. Mean wet season Escherichia coli counts ranged between 5.8E+01 and 8.8E+04MPN/100mL (water column) and between 2.40E+03 and 1.28E+05MPN/100mL (sediments). Mean dry season E. coli counts ranged between 5.11E+00 and 3.40E+03MPN/100mL (water column) and between 5.09E+00 and 6.30E+03MPN/100mL (sediments). Overall (water and sediments) Vibrio cholerae was the most detected pathogen (58.8%) followed by Salmonella spp. (23.9%) and Shigella (10.1%). Ingestion of 1mL of river water could lead to 0%-4% and 1%-74% Pi with E. coli during the dry and wet season, respectively. During the dry season, the Pi with V. cholerae, Salmonella spp. and Shigella spp. were 0%-1.39%, 0%-4.11% and 0%-0.16% respectively, depending on volume of water ingested. The risks of infections with all microorganisms increased during the wet season. A 2-log increase in water E. coli count following sediments disturbance led to approximately 10 times higher Pi with E. coli than when sediments were undisturbed. Therefore, the use of the untreated water from the Apies River for drinking, household purposes or recreational activities poses a potential health risk to the users of the river. Copyright © 2016

  6. Potential application of quantitative microbiological risk assessment techniques to an aseptic-UHT process in the food industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2013-04-01

    Aseptic ultra-high-temperature (UHT)-type processed food products (e.g., milk or soup) are ready to eat products which are consumed extensively globally due to a combination of their comparative high quality and long shelf life, with no cold chain or other preservation requirements. Due to the inherent microbial vulnerability of aseptic-UHT product formulations, the safety and stability-related performance objectives (POs) required at the end of the manufacturing process are the most demanding found in the food industry. The key determinants to achieving sterility, and which also differentiates aseptic-UHT from in-pack sterilised products, are the challenges associated with the processes of aseptic filling and sealing. This is a complex process that has traditionally been run using deterministic or empirical process settings. Quantifying the risk of microbial contamination and recontamination along the aseptic-UHT process, using the scientifically based process quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), offers the possibility to improve on the currently tolerable sterility failure rate (i.e., 1 defect per 10,000 units). In addition, benefits of applying QMRA are (i) to implement process settings in a transparent and scientific manner; (ii) to develop a uniform common structure whatever the production line, leading to a harmonisation of these process settings, and; (iii) to bring elements of a cost-benefit analysis of the management measures. The objective of this article is to explore how QMRA techniques and risk management metrics may be applied to aseptic-UHT-type processed food products. In particular, the aseptic-UHT process should benefit from a number of novel mathematical and statistical concepts that have been developed in the field of QMRA. Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian inference and sensitivity analysis, should help in assessing the compliance with safety and stability-related POs set at the end of the manufacturing

  7. Quantitative rockfall hazard and risk analysis in selected municipalities of the České Švýcarsko National Park, northwestern Czechia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blahůt, Jan; Klimeš, Jan; Vařilová, Z.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 118, č. 3 (2013), s. 205-220 ISSN 1212-0014 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP205/09/P383 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : rockfall hazard and risk * quantitative risk * Cretaceous sandstones * CONEFALL Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 0.400, year: 2013 http://geography.cz/sbornik/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2013/10/g13-3-s205-220-blahút.pdf

  8. Quantitative risk trends deriving from PSA-based event analyses. Analysis of results from U.S.NRC's accident sequence precursor program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Norio

    2004-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.NRC) has been carrying out the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program to identify and categorize precursors to potential severe core damage accident sequences using the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technique. The ASP Program has identified a lot of risk significant events as precursors that occurred at U.S. nuclear power plants. Although the results from the ASP Program include valuable information that could be useful for obtaining and characterizing risk significant insights and for monitoring risk trends in nuclear power industry, there are only a few attempts to determine and develop the trends using the ASP results. The present study examines and discusses quantitative risk trends for the industry level, using two indicators, that is, the occurrence frequency of precursors and the annual core damage probability, deriving from the results of the ASP analysis. It is shown that the core damage risk at U.S. nuclear power plants has been lowered and the likelihood of risk significant events has been remarkably decreasing. As well, the present study demonstrates that two risk indicators used here can provide quantitative information useful for examining and monitoring the risk trends and/or risk characteristics in nuclear power industry. (author)

  9. Quantitative risk assessment: is more complex always better? Simple is not stupid and complex is not always more correct.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwietering, Marcel H

    2009-08-31

    In quantitative risk assessments a large variety of complexities can be found, from simple and deterministic to very extensive and stochastic. This publication advocates that both simple and complex approaches have their value and should be done in parallel. The simple analysis gives much insight and can help to detect main factors and potential errors in the complex analysis. Extensive analysis with increased complexity suggests better precision but might not increase the accuracy, due to the uncertainty in the additional parameters. However, complex analysis supplies more confidence in certain phenomena and might also increase insight. This is shown with two examples. The first is the effectiveness of sampling plans for powdered infant formula, for factories operating at various levels of contamination. The results of a simple determination, an analysis including a within batch variability and an analysis including both within batch and between batch variability will be compared. The last approach has as advantage that apart from determining the probability of rejection of a batch, it can determine also the reduction of the health risk in the population following a certain sampling plan; it is more complex but it also does bring additional information. However the conclusions still contain large uncertainty, due to the difficulty of obtaining realistic values of the within batch and between batch variability. The second example is dose-response relations comparing the exponential model (one parameter), the beta-Poisson model (two parameters) and the Weibull-gamma model (three parameters). The conclusion is not that simple is best, but that simple is not stupid, and provides valuable information. Complex, on the other hand, is not always by definition more correct, but also does have its merits.

  10. The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; Van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2018-01-01

    To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format.

  11. Quantitative Risk - Phase 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-03

    November 2002 29. Ward, D., “The Comic Guide To Improving Defense Acquisitions”, Department of Defense, 2012 30. Nilsson, P.,Ohlsson, E...Professional Education Program, 2002 UNCLASSIFIED Contract Number: H98230-08-D-0171 TO 0030, RT 040 Report No. SERC-2013-TR-040-2 Revised

  12. PERFORMANCE OF QUANTITATIVE ULTRASOUND AND SIX OSTEOPOROSIS RISK INDEXES IN MENOPAUSAL WOMEN: VALIDATION AND COMPARATIVE EVALUATION STUDY.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imad GHOZLANI

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: A number of questionnaire-based systems and the use of portable quantitative ultrasound scanners (QUS have been devised in an attempt to produce a cost-effective method of screening for osteoporosis.Objective: to assess the sensitivity and specificity of different techniques and their ability to act as screening tools in relation to dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA.Methods: 295 white postmenopausal women aged over 60 were enrolled. Each subject completed a standardized questionnaire which permits the measure of six osteoporosis indexes and had bone mineral density (BMD measured using QUS and DXA. Sensitivity and specificity of the different techniques in relation to DXA were plotted as receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curves at DXA T-score total hip ≤ -2.5 (osteoporosis.Results: BUA sensitivity and specificity values were respectively 76.8% and 51.2% at the total hip. The optimal cut-off T-score for QUS was -2 at the total hip. The osteoporosis self-assessment tool (OST provided consistently the highest AUC (0.80 among the clinical tools and had the best sensitivity and specificity balance (90.2%-44.5%. OST negative likelihood ratio was 0.22.Conclusion: OST (based only on the weight and the age performed slightly better than QUS and other risk questionnaires in predicting low BMD at the total hip

  13. Quantitative risk analysis using vulnerability indicators to assess food insecurity in the Niayes agricultural region of West Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mateugue Diack

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need to develop indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to determine the robustness of response strategies over time and better understand the underlying processes. This study aimed to determine levels of risk of food insecurity using defined vulnerability indicators. For the purpose of this study, factors influencing food insecurity and different vulnerable indicators were examined using quantitative and qualitative research methods. Observations made on the physical environment (using tools for spatial analysis and socio-economic surveys conducted with local populations have quantified vulnerability indicators in the Niayes agricultural region. Application of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART model has enabled us to quantify the level of vulnerability of the zone. The results show that the decrease in agricultural surface areas is the most discriminant one in this study. The speed of reduction of the agricultural areas has specially increased between 2009 and 2014, with a loss of 65% of these areas. Therefore, a decision-making system, centred on the need for reinforcing the resilience of local populations, by preserving the agricultural vocation of the Niayes region and even in the Sahelian regions requires support and extension services for the farmers in order to promote sustainable agricultural practices.

  14. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157 : H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franz, E.; Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.

    2010-01-01

    Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green

  15. Effects of a 20 year rain event: a quantitative microbial risk assessment of a case of contaminated bathing water in Copenhagen, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja; Erichsen, A. C.; Mark, O.

    2013-01-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) often lack data on water quality leading to great uncertainty in the QMRA because of the many assumptions. The quantity of waste water contamination was estimated and included in a QMRA on an extreme rain event leading to combined sewer overflow (CS...

  16. Development of a Model for Quantitative Assessment of Risks and Identification of Threats in Anti-Crisis Management of a Machine-Building Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozyk Vasyl V.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to develop a model for quantitative assessment of risks in anti-crisis management of a machine-building enterprise. The quantitative assessment will allow to identify among the risks the threats that can be considered as catastrophic risks. To assess the integral risk of anti-crisis management of the enterprise, there used a process approach distinguishing the process of anti-crisis management activity and the process of implementation of the anti-crisis program. Within the framework of the process the types of activity are singled out, for each of them risks are identified with revealing their reasons. There built a fuzzy hierarchical model comprising the following elements: terminal nodes — indicators (factors of risks; non-terminal nodes — separate risks that are characteristic for the processes and risks of each process as a whole; root of the tree — the integral risk of anti-crisis management. The expediency of building a hierarchical fuzzy model, within which conclusions are formed for intermediate variables, is substantiated. Based on the own research and taking into account the opinion of experts, the parameters of the trapezoidal membership functions for assessing indicators and risks are determined. Fuzzy bases of knowledge about the correlation are formed using the Mamdani algorithm. The adequacy of the model is estimated on the basis of the learning sample. The built fuzzy model makes it possible to obtain risk assessment based on the set values of the indicators, thus providing an analysis of the sensitivity of risks to various factors. It is easily adjusted to other conditions and types of economic activity of the enterprise.

  17. Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of norovirus from wastewater irrigated vegetables in Ghana using genome copies and fecal indicator ratio conversion for estimating exposure dose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Sampson, Angelina; Amponsah, Samuel K.

    2017-01-01

    physical and environmental factors that might influence the reliability of using indicator organisms in microbial risk assessment. The challenges facing analytical studies on virus enumeration (genome copies or particles) have contributed to the already existing lack of data in QMRA modelling. This study......The need to replace the commonly applied fecal indicator conversions ratio (an assumption of 1:10− 5 virus to fecal indicator organism) in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) with models based on quantitative data on the virus of interest has gained prominence due to the different...... attempts to fit a QMRA model to genome copies of norovirus data. The model estimates the risk of norovirus infection from the intake of vegetables irrigated with wastewater from different sources. The results were compared to the results of a corresponding model using the fecal indicator conversion ratio...

  18. [Quantitative determination of fetal fibronectin in cervical smears: a new marker for evaluating the risk of premature labor].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hampl, M; Friese, K; Hofmann, I; Melchert, F

    1994-12-01

    There is a well-known correlation between ascending infection and preterm labour. Nevertheless, up to now an exact method to identify patients which are at high risk for preterm labour does not exist. Fetal fibronectin is an extracellular matrix protein, which is produced by fetal membranes. High concentrations are present in amniotic fluid, but not in cervical secretions in uncomplicated pregnancies (only in 3-4%). If there is an inflammatory mediated damage to fetal membranes (amnion/chorion) or a mechanical disruption caused by preterm contractions, fetal fibronectin should be released into the cervix and vagina. A prospective clinical study measuring quantitatively the content of fFN in cervicovaginal secretions in patients with preterm labour (n = 43), preterm rupture of membranes (n = 15) and 20 controls was undertaken. In 16 patients frequent specimen could be obtained over a period of several weeks. 14 of the 34 patients with preterm labour, which could be observed until delivery, delivered before term ( 75 ng/ml (sensitivity: 92.4%). 13 patients were negative for fFN and only one of these patients delivered before term (92% chance of term delivery in absence of fFN in cervicovaginal fluids). In 8 patients with beta-adrenergic treatment fFN was present. All patients delivered before term. The 15 patients with PROM had very high concentrations of fFN with a medium concentration of 967.3 ng/ml. 18 of the 20 control patients were negative for fFN (< 75 ng/ml), 2 had a slightly elevated concentration of 84 and 85 ng/ml.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  19. Exploring neural dysfunction in 'clinical high risk' for psychosis: a quantitative review of fMRI studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutt, Anirban; Tseng, Huai-Hsuan; Fonville, Leon; Drakesmith, Mark; Su, Liang; Evans, John; Zammit, Stanley; Jones, Derek; Lewis, Glyn; David, Anthony S

    2015-02-01

    Individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) of developing psychosis present with widespread functional abnormalities in the brain. Cognitive deficits, including working memory (WM) problems, as commonly elicited by n-back tasks, are observed in CHR individuals. However, functional MRI (fMRI) studies, comprising a heterogeneous cluster of general and social cognition paradigms, have not necessarily demonstrated consistent and conclusive results in this population. Hence, a comprehensive review of fMRI studies, spanning almost one decade, was carried out to observe for general trends with respect to brain regions and cognitive systems most likely to be dysfunctional in CHR individuals. 32 studies were included for this review, out of which 22 met the criteria for quantitative analysis using activation likelihood estimation (ALE). Task related contrast activations were firstly analysed by comparing CHR and healthy control participants in the total pooled sample, followed by a comparison of general cognitive function studies (excluding social cognition paradigms), and finally by only looking at n-back working memory task based studies. Findings from the ALE implicated four key dysfunctional and distinct neural regions in the CHR group, namely the right inferior parietal lobule (rIPL), the left medial frontal gyrus (lmFG), the left superior temporal gyrus (lSTG) and the right fronto-polar cortex (rFPC) of the superior frontal gyrus (SFG). Narrowing down to relatively few significant dysfunctional neural regions is a step forward in reducing the apparent ambiguity of overall findings, which would help to target specific neural regions and pathways of interest for future research in CHR populations. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patriarca, Riccardo, E-mail: riccardo.patriarca@uniroma1.it; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco; Tronci, Massimo

    2017-03-15

    Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order to define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.

  1. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patriarca, Riccardo; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco; Tronci, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order to define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.

  2. A semi-quantitative risk assessment method for analyzing the level of risk associated with parameters in design of thermal heavy oil Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrokhzad, M.A. [IMV Projects Inc., Alberta (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    how to prevent and control them. In this paper we look at the involved parameters in design of the SAGD pipelines and provide a semi-quantitative risk assessment method and the level of risk involved for each of these parameters. (author)

  3. The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2018-03-11

    To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format. For aim 1, a 2 (infographics versus text) x 2 (risk number versus no risk number) between-subjects design was used. For aim 2, three pieces of information were tested within-subjects. Aim 3 used a simple comparison group. Participants (45-65 yrs old) were recruited through an online access panel; low educated people were oversampled. They received hypothetical risk information (20%/61yrs). Primary outcomes: recall, risk appraisals, subjective/objective risk comprehension. behavioral intentions, information evaluations. Infographics of qualitative risk dimensions negatively affected recall, subjective risk comprehension and information evaluations. No effect of type of risk dimension was found on risk perception. Heart age influenced recall, comprehension, evaluations and affective risk appraisals. Infographics of hypothetical CVD risk information had detrimental effects on measures related to risk perception/comprehension, but effects were mainly seen in undereducated participants. Heart age influenced perceptions/comprehension of hypothetical risk in a way that seemed to support understanding. Heart age seems a fruitful risk communication approach in disease risk calculators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Quantitative approach for the risk assessment of African swine fever and Classical swine fever introduction into the United States through legal imports of pigs and swine products.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana María Herrera-Ibatá

    Full Text Available The US livestock safety strongly depends on its capacity to prevent the introduction of Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs. Therefore, accurate and updated information on the location and origin of those potential TADs risks is essential, so preventive measures as market restrictions can be put on place. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the current risk of African swine fever (ASF and Classical swine fever (CSF introduction into the US through the legal importations of live pigs and swine products using a quantitative approach that could be later applied to other risks. Four quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were developed to estimate the monthly probabilities of ASF and CSF release into the US, and the exposure of susceptible populations (domestic and feral swine to these introductions at state level. The results suggest a low annual probability of either ASF or CSF introduction into the US, by any of the analyzed pathways (5.5*10-3. Being the probability of introduction through legal imports of live pigs (1.8*10-3 for ASF, and 2.5*10-3 for CSF higher than the risk of legally imported swine products (8.90*10-4 for ASF, and 1.56*10-3 for CSF. This could be caused due to the low probability of exposure associated with this type of commodity (products. The risk of feral pigs accessing to swine products discarded in landfills was slightly higher than the potential exposure of domestic pigs through swill feeding. The identification of the months at highest risk, the origin of the higher risk imports, and the location of the US states most vulnerable to those introductions (Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin for live swine and California, Florida and Texas for swine products, is valuable information that would help to design prevention, risk-mitigation and early-detection strategies that would help to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASF/CSF introductions into the US.

  5. Assessment of the health impact of an environmental pollution and quantitative assessment of health risks; Estimation de l'impact sanitaire d'une pollution environnementale et evaluation quantitative des risques sanitaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-09-15

    The report made by a working group is written for experts in health risk assessment or for professionals involved in risk management. It proposes a methodological and conceptual framework which could build a unified approach to a quantitative assessment of health risks. In the first part, under the form of questions and answers, it defines the health impact, describes how to assess the excess of individual risk and the related hypothesis, how to pass from the excess of individual risk to the health impact, how to express the results of an health impact calculation, how to take the lack of knowledge into account at the different steps of this calculation, what is the significance of the result of such a calculation, and how useful an health impact assessment can be. The second part proposes a more detailed presentation of the scientific background for the health impact calculation with its indicators, its uncertainties, its practice in other countries, its relevance, and its fields of application. Then, after a comment of the dose-response relationship, it reports the scientific validity of the assessment of a number of cases.

  6. An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

    2018-09-01

    Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Effect of smoking cessation on quantitative computed tomography in smokers at risk in a lung cancer screening population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jobst, Bertram J.; Eichinger, Monika; Wielpuetz, Mark O. [University Hospital Heidelberg, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Heidelberg (Germany); Translational Lung Research Centre Heidelberg (TLRC), Member of the German Lung Research Centre (DZL), Heidelberg (Germany); Thoraxklinik at the University of Heidelberg, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology with Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Department of Radiology, Heidelberg (Germany); Weinheimer, Oliver; Trauth, Mila; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich [University Hospital Heidelberg, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Heidelberg (Germany); Translational Lung Research Centre Heidelberg (TLRC), Member of the German Lung Research Centre (DZL), Heidelberg (Germany); Thoraxklinik at the University of Heidelberg, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology with Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); Becker, Nikolaus; Motsch, Erna; Gross, Marie-Luise; Eigentopf, Anke [German Cancer Research Centre (DKFZ Heidelberg), Division of Cancer Epidemiology, Heidelberg (Germany); Tremper, Jan; Delorme, Stefan [German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Department of Radiology, Heidelberg (Germany)

    2018-02-15

    To longitudinally evaluate effects of smoking cessation on quantitative CT in a lung cancer screening cohort of heavy smokers over 4 years. After 4 years, low-dose chest CT was available for 314 long-term ex-smokers (ES), 404 continuous smokers (CS) and 39 recent quitters (RQ) who quitted smoking within 2 years after baseline CT. CT acquired at baseline and after 3 and 4 years was subjected to well-evaluated densitometry software, computing mean lung density (MLD) and 15th percentile of the lung density histogram (15TH). At baseline, active smokers showed significantly higher MLD and 15TH (-822±35 and -936±25 HU, respectively) compared to ES (-831±31 and -947±22 HU, p<0.01-0.001). After 3 years, CS again had significantly higher MLD and 15TH (-801±29 and -896±23 HU) than ES (-808±27 and -906±20 HU, p<0.01-0.001) but also RQ (-813±20 and -909±15 HU, p<0.05-0.001). Quantitative CT parameters did not change significantly after 4 years. Importantly, smoking status independently predicted MLD at baseline and year 3 (p<0.001) in multivariate analysis. On quantitative CT, lung density is higher in active smokers than ex-smokers, and sustainably decreases after smoking cessation, reflecting smoking-induced inflammation. Interpretations of quantitative CT data within clinical trials should consider smoking status. (orig.)

  8. High quantitative job demands and low coworker support as risk factors for neck pain: Results of a prospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ariëns, G.A.M.; Bongers, P.M.; Hoogendoorn, W.E.; Houtman, I.L.D.; Wal, G. van der; Mechelen, W. van

    2001-01-01

    Study Design. A 3-year prospective cohort study among 1334 workers was conducted. Objective. To determine whether the work-related psychosocial factors of quantitative job demands, conflicting job demands, skill discretion, decision authority, supervisor support, coworker support, and job security

  9. Effect of smoking cessation on quantitative computed tomography in smokers at risk in a lung cancer screening population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jobst, Bertram J.; Eichinger, Monika; Wielpuetz, Mark O.; Weinheimer, Oliver; Trauth, Mila; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Becker, Nikolaus; Motsch, Erna; Gross, Marie-Luise; Eigentopf, Anke; Tremper, Jan; Delorme, Stefan

    2018-01-01

    To longitudinally evaluate effects of smoking cessation on quantitative CT in a lung cancer screening cohort of heavy smokers over 4 years. After 4 years, low-dose chest CT was available for 314 long-term ex-smokers (ES), 404 continuous smokers (CS) and 39 recent quitters (RQ) who quitted smoking within 2 years after baseline CT. CT acquired at baseline and after 3 and 4 years was subjected to well-evaluated densitometry software, computing mean lung density (MLD) and 15th percentile of the lung density histogram (15TH). At baseline, active smokers showed significantly higher MLD and 15TH (-822±35 and -936±25 HU, respectively) compared to ES (-831±31 and -947±22 HU, p<0.01-0.001). After 3 years, CS again had significantly higher MLD and 15TH (-801±29 and -896±23 HU) than ES (-808±27 and -906±20 HU, p<0.01-0.001) but also RQ (-813±20 and -909±15 HU, p<0.05-0.001). Quantitative CT parameters did not change significantly after 4 years. Importantly, smoking status independently predicted MLD at baseline and year 3 (p<0.001) in multivariate analysis. On quantitative CT, lung density is higher in active smokers than ex-smokers, and sustainably decreases after smoking cessation, reflecting smoking-induced inflammation. Interpretations of quantitative CT data within clinical trials should consider smoking status. (orig.)

  10. Exploring probabilistic tools for the development of a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of hydro-meteorological hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumpano, V.; Hussin, H. Y.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    Mass-movements and floods are hydro-meteorological hazards that can have catastrophic effects on communities living in mountainous areas prone to these disastrous events. Environmental, climate and socio-economic changes are expected to affect the tempo-spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe. These changes and their effects on the occurrence of future hazards need to be analyzed and modeled using probabilistic hazard and risk assessment methods in order to assist stakeholders in disaster management strategies and policy making. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) using probabilistic methods can further calculate damage and losses to multi-hazards and determine the uncertainties related to all the probabilistic components of the hazard and the vulnerability of the elements at risk. Therefore, in order to develop an effective platform that can quantitatively calculate the risk of mass-movements and floods in several European test sites, an extensive inventory and analysis has been carried out of the available tools and software related to the probabilistic risk assessment of single and multi-hazards. The tools have been reviewed based on whether they are open source and freely available, their required input data, the availability and type of hazard and vulnerability modules, transparency of methods used, their validation and calibration techniques, the inclusion of uncertainties and their state of the art. The analysis also specially focused on the applicability of the tools to European study areas. The findings showed that assumptions and simplifications are made when assessing and quantifying the hazards. The interaction between multiple hazards, like cascading effects are not assessed in most tools and some consider the hazard and vulnerability as qualitative components, rather than quantitative ones. This analysis of hazard and risk assessment tools and software will give future developers and experts a better overview of

  11. Semi-Quantitative Assessment of the Health Risk of Occupational Exposure to Chemicals and Evaluation of Spirometry Indices on the Staff of Petrochemical Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajar Dazi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study: Petrochemical industry is an important industry in the economic development of the country that causes employees have exposure with several kinds of contamination. The aim of this study was Semi-quantitative assessment of the health risk of occupational exposure to chemical materials and investigation of spirometry indices between employees of petrochemical industry. Material & Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in one of the petrochemical industry complex in a special area of Assaluyeh in Iran in 2016. Health risk assessment of exposure to harmful chemical agents was performed in all of units and during three stages (identification of harmful material, determination of hazard rate of the chemical material, exposure rate and estimate of risk rate. Spirometry indices were measured using spirometry. Results: The results of chemical materials risk assessment showed that Raffinate in Butadiene unit has identified the highest amount of risk rank among 27 chemical materials in investigated units. In comparison with spirometry indices in Olefine unit between age with FVC parameter and history work with FVC and FEV1 parameters has observed a significant and negative correlation (P<0.05. Conclusion: The results of risk assessment in all of the petrochemical units showed that 48.14% of materials were at low risk level, 29.62% medium risk, 18.51% high risk and 3.7% had very high risk level. The variables affecting on spirometry employees such as age and work experience play an important role in reducing the pulmonary function tests in exposed subjects.

  12. Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

    2016-01-01

    Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

  13. Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of farmer exposure to Cryptosporidium spp. in irrigation water within Kumasi Metropolis-Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sampson, Angelina; Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Mills-Robertson, Felix C.

    2017-01-01

    causing gastroenteritis. The results indicate high positive levels of Cryptosporidium in the irrigation water, however, the levels of Cryptosporidium decreases during the rainfall seasons, risk assessment results show that, farmers face a higher risk of being infected by Cryptosporidium due to frequent...

  14. A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, P.

    2013-12-01

    Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

  15. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V.

    2017-01-01

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider’s server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs’ users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs’ risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs’ risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing. PMID:28335569

  16. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V

    2017-03-21

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider's server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs' users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs' risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs' risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing.

  17. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157 on lettuce, based on survival data from controlled studies in a climate chamber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ottoson, Jakob R; Nyberg, Karin; Lindqvist, Roland; Albihn, Ann

    2011-12-01

    The aims of the study were to determine the survival of Escherichia coli O157 on lettuce as a function of temperature and light intensity, and to use that information in a screening-level quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) in order to evaluate risk-reducing strategies including irrigation water quality guidelines, rinsing, and holding time between last irrigation and harvest. Iceberg lettuce was grown in a climate chamber and inoculated with E. coli O157. Bacterial numbers were determined with the standard plate count method after inoculation and 1, 2, 4, and 7 day(s) postinoculation. The experiments were carried out at 11, 18, and 25°C in light intensities of 0, 400, and 600 mmol (m(2))(-1) s(-1). There was a significant effect of temperature and light intensity on survival, with less bacteria isolated from lettuce incubated at 25 and 18°C compared with 11°C (P < 0.0001), and in light intensities of 400 and 600 mmol (m(2))(-1) s(-1) compared with 0 mmol (m(2))(-1) s(-1) (P < 0.001). The average log reductions after 1, 2, 4, and 7 day(s) were 1.14, 1.71, 2.04, and 3.0, respectively. The QMRA compared the relative risk with lettuce consumption from 20 scenarios. A stricter water quality guideline gave a mean fivefold risk reduction. Holding times of 1, 2, 4, and 7 day(s) reduced the risk 3, 8, 8, and 18 times, respectively, compared with harvest the same day as the last irrigation. Finally, rinsing lettuce for 15 s in cold tap water prior to consumption gave a sixfold risk reduction compared with eating unrinsed lettuce. Sensitivity analyses indicated that variation in bacterial inactivation had the most significant effect on the risk outcome. A QMRA determining the relative risks between scenarios reduces uncertainty and can provide risk managers with decision support.

  18. Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of norovirus from wastewater irrigated vegetables in Ghana using genome copies and fecal indicator ratio conversion for estimating exposure dose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Sampson, Angelina; Amponsah, Samuel K; Abaidoo, Robert C; Dalsgaard, Anders; Hald, Tine

    2017-12-01

    The need to replace the commonly applied fecal indicator conversions ratio (an assumption of 1:10 -5 virus to fecal indicator organism) in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) with models based on quantitative data on the virus of interest has gained prominence due to the different physical and environmental factors that might influence the reliability of using indicator organisms in microbial risk assessment. The challenges facing analytical studies on virus enumeration (genome copies or particles) have contributed to the already existing lack of data in QMRA modelling. This study attempts to fit a QMRA model to genome copies of norovirus data. The model estimates the risk of norovirus infection from the intake of vegetables irrigated with wastewater from different sources. The results were compared to the results of a corresponding model using the fecal indicator conversion ratio to estimate the norovirus count. In all scenarios of using different water sources, the application of the fecal indicator conversion ratio underestimated the norovirus disease burden, measured by the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), when compared to results using the genome copies norovirus data. In some cases the difference was >2 orders of magnitude. All scenarios using genome copies met the 10 -4 DALY per person per year for consumption of vegetables irrigated with wastewater, although these results are considered to be highly conservative risk estimates. The fecal indicator conversion ratio model of stream-water and drain-water sources of wastewater achieved the 10 -6 DALY per person per year threshold, which tends to indicate an underestimation of health risk when compared to using genome copies for estimating the dose. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars, Based on Modeling Supply Chain Logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Franz, E.

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference

  20. Current developments in the assessment of petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites: Analysis, interpretation, and use of the TPH parameter for quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Surette, M.; Maynard, P.; Lamie, P.O.; Kaslick, C.

    1995-01-01

    In 1994, the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MDEP) estimated that petroleum-only cases comprised approximately one-half of the state's hazardous waste sites currently under investigation and/or remediation. Because of this significant percentage, it became clear that assessing petroleum sites more efficiently in terms of risk and cleanup alternatives was necessary. One of these key MDEP policies describes an alternative risk assessment approach enabling the quantitative characterization of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH)-related health risks. The approach relies on the use of an analytical technique by which the mass of petroleum hydrocarbons within specified carbon ranges is quantified. MDEP's TPH risk assessment approach was successfully employed at a residential site contaminated with No. 2 fuel oil. The combined use of MDEP's suggested analytical methods, alternative reference compounds and toxicity values, as well as chromatograms, standard dose equations, and an EPA-approved box model, facilitated the performance of a more realistic and cost-effective assessment of risk. Such assessment provided key management information to regulatory agencies, and project managers, as well as property owners concerned with potential property value loss

  1. QMRA (quantitative microbial risk assessment) and HACCP (hazard analysis and critical control points) for management of pathogens in wastewater and sewage sludge treatment and reuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westrell, T; Schönning, C; Stenström, T A; Ashbolt, N J

    2004-01-01

    Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) was applied for identifying and controlling exposure to pathogenic microorganisms encountered during normal sludge and wastewater handling at a 12,500 m3/d treatment plant utilising tertiary wastewater treatment and mesophilic sludge digestion. The hazardous scenarios considered were human exposure during treatment, handling, soil application and crop consumption, and exposure via water at the wetland-area and recreational swimming. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), including rotavirus, adenovirus, haemorrhagic E. coli, Salmonella, Giardia and Cryptosporidium, was performed in order to prioritise pathogen hazards for control purposes. Human exposures were treated as individual risks but also related to the endemic situation in the general population. The highest individual health risk from a single exposure was via aerosols for workers at the belt press for sludge dewatering (virus infection risk = 1). The largest impact on the community would arise if children ingested sludge at the unprotected storage site, although in the worst-case situation the largest number of infections would arise through vegetables fertilised with sludge and eaten raw (not allowed in Sweden). Acceptable risk for various hazardous scenarios, treatment and/or reuse strategies could be tested in the model.

  2. Detection of Legionella by quantitative-polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) for monitoring and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krøjgaard, Louise H.; Krogfelt, Karen A.; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jorgen

    2011-01-01

    Background: Culture and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays for the detection of Legionella were compared on samples from a residential area before and after two interventions. A total of 84 samples were collected from shower hoses and taps as first flush samples and at constant...... temperature. Samples were grouped according to the origin of the sample, a) circulation water b) water from empty apartments c) water from shower hoses. The aims were to investigate the usefulness of qPCR compared to culture for monitoring remedial actions for elimination of Legionella bacteria and as a tool...

  3. A quantitative risk assessment approach for mosquito-borne diseases: malaria re-emergence in southern France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luty Adrian JF

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Camargue region is a former malaria endemic area, where potential Anopheles vectors are still abundant. Considering the importation of Plasmodium due to the high number of imported malaria cases in France, the aim of this article was to make some predictions regarding the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue. Methods Receptivity (vectorial capacity and infectivity (vector susceptibility were inferred using an innovative probabilistic approach and considering both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Each parameter of receptivity (human biting rate, anthropophily, length of trophogonic cycle, survival rate, length of sporogonic cycle and infectivity were estimated based on field survey, bibliographic data and expert knowledge and fitted with probability distributions taking into account the variability and the uncertainty of the estimation. Spatial and temporal variations of the parameters were determined using environmental factors derived from satellite imagery, meteorological data and entomological field data. The entomological risk (receptivity/infectivity was calculated using 10,000 different randomly selected sets of values extracted from the probability distributions. The result was mapped in the Camargue area. Finally, vulnerability (number of malaria imported cases was inferred using data collected in regional hospitals. Results The entomological risk presented large spatial, temporal and Plasmodium species-dependent variations. The sensitivity analysis showed that susceptibility, survival rate and human biting rate were the three most influential parameters for entomological risk. Assessment of vulnerability showed that among the imported cases in the region, only very few were imported in at-risk areas. Conclusion The current risk of malaria re-emergence seems negligible due to the very low number of imported Plasmodium. This model demonstrated its efficiency for mosquito-borne diseases risk

  4. Prevalence of low bone health using quantitative ultrasound in Indian women aged 41-60 years: Its association with nutrition and other related risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenoy, Shweta; Chawla, Jasmine Kaur; Gupta, Swati; Sandhu, Jaspal Singh

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to find the prevalence of low bone health conditions and assess associated nutritional and other risk factors in Indian women aged 41-60 years. A total of 1,911 women participated in this cross-sectional study. Bone health was assessed using an Omnisense multisite quantitative ultrasound bone densitometer on two sites (radius and tibia). Crude prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis was found to be 30.09% and 19.89%, respectively. The Indian women were deficient in a majority of nutrients. Postmenopause, hysterectomy, hyperthyroid, hypothyroid, hypertension, low physical activity, low sun exposure, high stress levels, and low calcium levels were found to be independent risk factors of low bone health.

  5. Failure data specialization in quantitative risk assessments of process plants; Especializacao de dados de falha em analise quantitativa de riscos de plantas de processo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribeiro, Antonio C.O. [Bayer S.A., Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Melo, P.F. Frutuoso e [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia

    2005-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to show the Bayesian inference in reliability studies, which are used to failures rates updating in safety analyses. It is developed the impact of its using in quantitative risks assessments for industrial process plants. With this approach we find a structured and auditable way of showing the difference between an industrial installation with a good project and maintenance structure from another one that shows a low level of quality in these areas. In general the evidence from failures rates and as follow the frequency of occurrence from scenarios, which the risks taken in account in ERA, are taken from generics data banks, instead of, the installation in analysis. When using the plant data we need special effort to develop a data bank, that is, a maintenance managing system, which allows the data insertion as for example the SAP{sup R} and its PM module. (author)

  6. A quantitative risk-analysis for introduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus in the Netherlands through cattle imports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santman-Berends, I M G A; Mars, M H; Van Duijn, L; Van den Broek, K W H; Van Schaik, G

    2017-10-01

    Many countries have implemented control programmes aiming to eradicate Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus (BVDV). After obtaining the free status, a risk of re-introduction of the virus through import may remain. Therefore the risk of introduction of BVDV through cattle imports in the Netherlands was quantified and the effectiveness of subsequent intervention measures was assessed. Data, literature and expert opinion were used to estimate values for input parameters to feed a stochastic simulation model. The probability that BVDV was imported was differentiated into persistently infected (PI) cattle, trojan cows that transmitted the virus vertically resulting in a PI foetus (TR) and transient infected cattle (TI). The import risk was stratified to beef, dairy, small scale, suckler, trade, veal and young stock herds. The intervention scenarios that were evaluated consisted of virus testing, a combination of virus testing and antibody testing in pregnant cows, abolishment of imports from high risk countries (i.e. countries with a BVDV prevalence >15%) and a combination of import restrictions and testing prior to import. Each year, 334 (5th and 95th percentile: 65-902) Dutch cattle herds were estimated to be infected with BVDV through import. Veal herds account for most infections associated with import (87%), whereas in the other herd types, only 9 beef, 6 dairy, 2 small scale, 16 suckler, 10 trade and 2 young stock herds are infected through imports per year. Import of PI cattle is the most important risk for introduction in veal herds, while import of TR cows is the main source of BVDV introduction in dairy, small scale and suckler herds. With the intervention scenarios, the number of BVDV infected herds in the Netherlands could be reduced to 81 and 58 herds per year when respectively virus testing or a combination of virus and antibody testing was applied or to 108 herds when import from high risk countries was abolished. With the scenario in which both import from high

  7. The Age-Specific Quantitative Effects of Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes: A Pooled Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farzadfar, Farshad; Stevens, Gretchen A.; Woodward, Mark; Wormser, David; Kaptoge, Stephen; Whitlock, Gary; Qiao, Qing; Lewington, Sarah; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; vander Hoorn, Stephen; Lawes, Carlene M. M.; Ali, Mohammed K.; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Ezzati, Majid

    2013-01-01

    Background The effects of systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum total cholesterol (TC), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been established in epidemiological studies, but consistent estimates of effect sizes by age and sex are not available. Methods We reviewed large cohort pooling projects, evaluating effects of baseline or usual exposure to metabolic risks on ischemic heart disease (IHD), hypertensive heart disease (HHD), stroke, diabetes, and, as relevant selected other CVDs, after adjusting for important confounders. We pooled all data to estimate relative risks (RRs) for each risk factor and examined effect modification by age or other factors, using random effects models. Results Across all risk factors, an average of 123 cohorts provided data on 1.4 million individuals and 52,000 CVD events. Each metabolic risk factor was robustly related to CVD. At the baseline age of 55–64 years, the RR for 10 mmHg higher SBP was largest for HHD (2.16; 95% CI 2.09–2.24), followed by effects on both stroke subtypes (1.66; 1.39–1.98 for hemorrhagic stroke and 1.63; 1.57–1.69 for ischemic stroke). In the same age group, RRs for 1 mmol/L higher TC were 1.44 (1.29–1.61) for IHD and 1.20 (1.15–1.25) for ischemic stroke. The RRs for 5 kg/m2 higher BMI for ages 55–64 ranged from 2.32 (2.04–2.63) for diabetes, to 1.44 (1.40–1.48) for IHD. For 1 mmol/L higher FPG, RRs in this age group were 1.18 (1.08–1.29) for IHD and 1.14 (1.01–1.29) for total stroke. For all risk factors, proportional effects declined with age, were generally consistent by sex, and differed by region in only a few age groups for certain risk factor-disease pairs. Conclusion Our results provide robust, comparable and precise estimates of the effects of major metabolic risk factors on CVD and diabetes by age group. PMID:23935815

  8. A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

  9. Evaluating the Spatial Distribution of Quantitative Risk and Hazard Level of Arsenic Exposure in Groundwater, case Study of Qorveh County, Kurdistan Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Touraj Nasrabadi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Regional distribution of quantitative risk and hazard levels due to arsenic poisoning in some parts of Iran’s Kurdistan province is considered. To investigate the potential risk and hazard level regarding arsenic-contaminated drinking water and further carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects on villagers, thirteen wells in rural areas of Qorveh County were considered for evaluation of arsenic concentration in water. Sampling campaign was performed in August 2010 and arsenic concentration was measured via the Silver Diethyldithiocarbamate method. The highest and lowest arsenic concentration are reported in Guilaklu and Qezeljakand villages with 420 and 67 μg/L, respectively. None of thirteen water samples met the maximum contaminant level issued by USEPA and Institute of Standards and Industrial Research of Iran (10 ppb. The highest arsenic concentration and consequently risk and hazard levels belong to villages situated alongside the eastern frontiers of the county. Existence of volcanic activities within the upper Miocene and Pleistocene in this part of the study area may be addressed as the main geopogenic source of arsenic pollution. Quantitative risk values are varying from 1.49E-03 in Qezeljakand to 8.92E-03 in Guilaklu and may be interpreted as very high when compared by similar studies in Iran. Regarding non-carcinogenic effects, all thirteen water samples are considered hazardous while all calculated chronic daily intakes are greater than arsenic reference dose. Such drinking water source has the potential to impose adverse carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects on villagers. Accordingly, an urgent decision must be made to substitute the current drinking water source with a safer one.

  10. SNP rs16906252C>T is an expression and methylation quantitative trait locus associated with an increased risk of developing MGMT-methylated colorectal cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroiwa-Trzmielina, Joice; Wang, Fan; Rapkins, Robert W.; Ward, Robyn L.; Buchanan, Daniel D.; Win, Aung Ko; Clendenning, Mark; Rosty, Christophe; Southey, Melissa C.; Winship, Ingrid M.; Hopper, John L.; Jenkins, Mark A.; Olivier, Jake; Hawkins, Nicholas J.; Hitchins, Megan P.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Methylation of the MGMT promoter is the major cause of O6-methylguanine methyltransferase deficiency in cancer and has been associated with the T variant of the promoter-enhancer SNP rs16906252C>T. We sought evidence for an association between the rs16906252C>T genotype and increased risk of developing a subtype of colorectal cancer (CRC) featuring MGMT methylation, mediated by genotype-dependent epigenetic silencing within normal tissues. Experimental design By applying a molecular pathological epidemiology case-control study design, associations between rs16906252C>T and risk for CRC overall, and CRC stratified by MGMT methylation status, were estimated using multinomial logistic regression in two independent retrospective series of CRC cases and controls. The test sample comprised 1054 CRC cases and 451 controls from Sydney, Australia. The validation sample comprised 612 CRC cases and 245 controls from the Australasian Colon Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR). To determine if rs16906252C>T was linked to a constitutively altered epigenetic state, quantitative allelic expression and methylation analyses were performed in normal tissues. Results An association between rs16906252C>T and increased risk of developing MGMT-methylated CRC in the Sydney sample was observed (OR 3.3; 95%CI=2.0–5.3; PT represents an expression and methylation quantitative trait locus. Conclusions We provide evidence that rs16906252C>T is associated with elevated risk for MGMT-methylated CRC, likely mediated by constitutive epigenetic repression of the T allele. PMID:27267851

  11. Validation study of a quantitative multigene reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay for assessment of recurrence risk in patients with stage II colon cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Richard G; Quirke, Philip; Handley, Kelly; Lopatin, Margarita; Magill, Laura; Baehner, Frederick L; Beaumont, Claire; Clark-Langone, Kim M; Yoshizawa, Carl N; Lee, Mark; Watson, Drew; Shak, Steven; Kerr, David J

    2011-12-10

    We developed quantitative gene expression assays to assess recurrence risk and benefits from chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer. We sought validation by using RNA extracted from fixed paraffin-embedded primary colon tumor blocks from 1,436 patients with stage II colon cancer in the QUASAR (Quick and Simple and Reliable) study of adjuvant fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy versus surgery alone. A recurrence score (RS) and a treatment score (TS) were calculated from gene expression levels of 13 cancer-related genes (n = 7 recurrence genes and n = 6 treatment benefit genes) and from five reference genes with prespecified algorithms. Cox proportional hazards regression models and log-rank methods were used to analyze the relationship between the RS and risk of recurrence in patients treated with surgery alone and between TS and benefits of chemotherapy. Risk of recurrence was significantly associated with RS (hazard ratio [HR] per interquartile range, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.74; P = .004). Recurrence risks at 3 years were 12%, 18%, and 22% for predefined low, intermediate, and high recurrence risk groups, respectively. T stage (HR, 1.94; P < .001) and mismatch repair (MMR) status (HR, 0.31; P < .001) were the strongest histopathologic prognostic factors. The continuous RS was associated with risk of recurrence (P = .006) beyond these and other covariates. There was no trend for increased benefit from chemotherapy at higher TS (P = .95). The continuous 12-gene RS has been validated in a prospective study for assessment of recurrence risk in patients with stage II colon cancer after surgery and provides prognostic value that complements T stage and MMR. The TS was not predictive of chemotherapy benefit.

  12. Long-term risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse according to high-risk human papillomavirus genotype and semi-quantitative viral load among 33,288 women with normal cervical cytology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Louise T; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian

    2015-01-01

    with single hrHPV infections. The cohort was followed in a nationwide pathology register for up to 11.5 years. In women aged ≥30 years at baseline, the 8-year absolute risk for CIN3+ following baseline detection of HPV16 was 21.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 18.0-25.6%). The corresponding risks for HPV18......In this prospective cohort study, we estimated the long-term risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3+) by high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) genotype and semi-quantitative viral load at baseline among 33,288 women aged 14-90 years with normal baseline cytology. During...... 2002-2005, residual liquid-based cervical cytology samples were collected from women screened for cervical cancer in Copenhagen, Denmark. Samples were HPV-tested with Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and genotyped with INNO-LiPA. Semi-quantitative viral load was measured by HC2 relative light units in women...

  13. Correlation between quantitative HER-2 protein expression and risk for brain metastases in HER-2+ advanced breast cancer patients receiving trastuzumab-containing therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchnowska, Renata; Biernat, Wojciech; Szostakiewicz, Barbara; Sperinde, Jeff; Piette, Fanny; Haddad, Mojgan; Paquet, Agnes; Lie, Yolanda; Czartoryska-Arłukowicz, Bogumiła; Wysocki, Piotr; Jankowski, Tomasz; Radecka, Barbara; Foszczynska-Kłoda, Małgorzata; Litwiniuk, Maria; Debska, Sylwia; Weidler, Jodi; Huang, Weidong; Buyse, Marc; Bates, Michael; Jassem, Jacek

    2012-01-01

    Patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER)-2+ breast cancer are at particularly high risk for brain metastases; however, the biological basis is not fully understood. Using a novel HER-2 assay, we investigated the correlation between quantitative HER-2 expression in primary breast cancers and the time to brain metastasis (TTBM) in HER-2+ advanced breast cancer patients treated with trastuzumab. The study group included 142 consecutive patients who were administered trastuzumab-based therapy for HER-2+ metastatic breast cancer. HER-2/neu gene copy number was quantified as the HER-2/centromeric probe for chromosome 17 (CEP17) ratio by central laboratory fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). HER-2 protein was quantified as total HER-2 protein expression (H2T) by the HERmark® assay (Monogram Biosciences, Inc., South San Francisco, CA) in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor samples. HER-2 variables were correlated with clinical features and TTBM was measured from the initiation of trastuzumab-containing therapy. A higher H2T level (continuous variable) was correlated with shorter TTBM, whereas HER-2 amplification by FISH and a continuous HER-2/CEP17 ratio were not predictive (p = .013, .28, and .25, respectively). In the subset of patients that was centrally determined by FISH to be HER-2+, an above-the-median H2T level was significantly associated with a shorter TTBM (hazard ratio, [HR], 2.4; p = .005), whereas this was not true for the median HER-2/CEP17 ratio by FISH (p = .4). Correlation between a continuous H2T level and TTBM was confirmed on multivariate analysis (HR, 3.3; p = .024). These data reveal a strong relationship between the quantitative HER-2 protein expression level and the risk for brain relapse in HER-2+ advanced breast cancer patients. Consequently, quantitative assessment of HER-2 protein expression may inform and facilitate refinements in therapeutic treatment strategies for selected subpopulations of patients in this

  14. 76 FR 19311 - Update of the 2003 Interagency Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Risk to Public Health From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-07

    ... of RTE foods that were considered in the 2003 risk assessment: 1. L. monocytogenes contamination in... manufacturing different RTE foods with substances that inhibit the growth of L. monocytogenes and the types and... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Food Safety and Inspection Service [Docket No. FSIS-2010-0035...

  15. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for an indoor swimming pool with chlorination compared to a UV-based treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, M.C.F.M.; Keuten, M.G.A.; de Kreuk, M.K.; Vrouwenvelder, J.S.; Rietveld, L.C.; Medema, G.

    2017-01-01

    Aims Most swimming pools use residual disinfectants like chlorine for disinfection. The use of chlorine has several drawbacks: some waterborne-pathogens are chlorine resistant and disinfection by-products (DBPs) may be formed which are associated with various health risks. Therefore, an alternative

  16. A quantitative assessment of the risk of transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy by tallow-based calf milk-replacer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry; Hostrup-Pedersen, J.

    2004-01-01

    three different levels of impurities, six different distributions of the BSE infectivity titers of CNS tissues and with and without inclusion of specified risk material (SRM). Our results suggest that tallow-based CMR could have been responsible for some BSE infections in nearly all simulations...

  17. Integration of quantitative risk assessment in the health impact assessment of the recently amended Hungarian anti-smoking policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Gulis, Gabriel

    2011-01-01

    Health impact assessments (HIA) dominantly apply only qualitative evaluation, although a comprehensive HIA ideally integrates both qualitative and quantitative evidence and methods, since quantification has several advantages when using assessment results in the decision making process......-smokers to introduce smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles. Full chain approach was used to identify basic rules for prioritizing the major impact pathways with special attention to the feasibility of quantifying exposure and outcome. Exposure assessment relied on international...... experiences, while outcome assessment calculated measures of disease burden, like attributable death and disability adjusted life years, for a baseline and a predicted situation after the proposed changes take place. The major impact of the proposal was identified to decreases prevalence of active and passive...

  18. A quantitative analysis of a risk impact due to a starting time extension of the emergency diesel generator in optimized power reactor-1000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Ho-Gon; Yang, Joon-Eon; Hwang, Mee-Jeong

    2007-01-01

    An emergency diesel generator (EDG) is the ultimate electric power supply source for the operation of emergency engineered safety features when a nuclear power plant experiences a loss of off-site power (LOOP). If a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) with a simultaneous LOOP occurs, the EDG should be in the state of a full power within 10 s, which is a prescribed regulatory requirement in the technical specifications (TS) of the Optimized Power Reactor-1000 (OPR-1000). Recently, the US nuclear regulatory commission (NRC) has been preparing a new risk-informed emergency core cooling system (ECCS) rule called 10 CFR 50.46. The new rule redefines the size for the design basis LOCA and it relaxes some of the requirements such as the single failure criteria, simultaneous LOOP, and the methods of analysis. The revision of the ECCS rule will provide flexibility for plant changes if the plant risks are checked and balanced with the specified criteria. The present study performed a quantitative analysis of the plant risk impact due to the EDG starting time extension given that the new rule will be applied to OPR-1000. The thermal-hydraulic analysis and OPR-1000 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model were combined to estimate the whole plant risk impact. Also, sensitivity analyses were implemented for the important uncertainty parameters

  19. Including pathogen risk in life cycle assessment of wastewater management. 2. Quantitative comparison of pathogen risk to other impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimersson, Sara; Harder, Robin; Peters, Gregory M; Svanström, Magdalena

    2014-08-19

    Resource recovery from sewage sludge has the potential to save natural resources, but the potential risks connected to human exposure to heavy metals, organic micropollutants, and pathogenic microorganisms attract stakeholder concern. The purpose of the presented study was to include pathogen risks to human health in life cycle assessment (LCA) of wastewater and sludge management systems, as this is commonly omitted from LCAs due to methodological limitations. Part 1 of this article series estimated the overall pathogen risk for such a system with agricultural use of the sludge, in a way that enables the results to be integrated in LCA. This article (part 2) presents a full LCA for two model systems (with agricultural utilization or incineration of sludge) to reveal the relative importance of pathogen risk in relation to other potential impacts on human health. The study showed that, for both model systems, pathogen risk can constitute an important part (in this study up to 20%) of the total life cycle impacts on human health (expressed in disability adjusted life years) which include other important impacts such as human toxicity potential, global warming potential, and photochemical oxidant formation potential.

  20. Model-based approach for quantitative estimates of skin, heart, and lung toxicity risk for left-side photon and proton irradiation after breast-conserving surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tommasino, Francesco; Durante, Marco; D'Avino, Vittoria; Liuzzi, Raffaele; Conson, Manuel; Farace, Paolo; Palma, Giuseppe; Schwarz, Marco; Cella, Laura; Pacelli, Roberto

    2017-05-01

    Proton beam therapy represents a promising modality for left-side breast cancer (BC) treatment, but concerns have been raised about skin toxicity and poor cosmesis. The aim of this study is to apply skin normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) optimization in left-side BC. Ten left-side BC patients undergoing photon irradiation after breast-conserving surgery were randomly selected from our clinical database. Intensity modulated photon (IMRT) and IMPT plans were calculated with iso-tumor-coverage criteria and according to RTOG 1005 guidelines. Proton plans were computed with and without skin optimization. Published NTCP models were employed to estimate the risk of different toxicity endpoints for skin, lung, heart and its substructures. Acute skin NTCP evaluation suggests a lower toxicity level with IMPT compared to IMRT when the skin is included in proton optimization strategy (0.1% versus 1.7%, p < 0.001). Dosimetric results show that, with the same level of tumor coverage, IMPT attains significant heart and lung dose sparing compared with IMRT. By NTCP model-based analysis, an overall reduction in the cardiopulmonary toxicity risk prediction can be observed for all IMPT compared to IMRT plans: the relative risk reduction from protons varies between 0.1 and 0.7 depending on the considered toxicity endpoint. Our analysis suggests that IMPT might be safely applied without increasing the risk of severe acute radiation induced skin toxicity. The quantitative risk estimates also support the potential clinical benefits of IMPT for left-side BC irradiation due to lower risk of cardiac and pulmonary morbidity. The applied approach might be relevant on the long term for the setup of cost-effectiveness evaluation strategies based on NTCP predictions.

  1. Perception versus reality: Bridging the gap between quantitative and qualitative information relating to the risks of uranium mining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Needham, S.

    2002-01-01

    Environmental impact of uranium mining in Australia is frequently raised as an issue of public concern. However, the level of concern both in terms of public agitation and political response has diminished over the last decade, largely as a consequence of many years of demonstrated high levels of environmental protection achieved at Australian uranium mines. Another reason is because of improved information now accessible to the public on mine environmental management systems, monitoring results, and audit outcomes. This paper describes some communication methods developed for the uranium mines of the Alligator Rivers Region of the Northern Territory. These methods have improved the effectiveness of dialogue between stakeholders, and better inform the public about the levels of environmental protection achieved and the level of risk to the environment and the community. A simple approach is described which has been developed to help build a mutual understanding between technocrats and the lay person on perceptions of risk and actual environmental impact. (author)

  2. A Risk Assessment Model for Reduced Aircraft Separation: A Quantitative Method to Evaluate the Safety of Free Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassell, Rick; Smith, Alex; Connors, Mary; Wojciech, Jack; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    As new technologies and procedures are introduced into the National Airspace System, whether they are intended to improve efficiency, capacity, or safety level, the quantification of potential changes in safety levels is of vital concern. Applications of technology can improve safety levels and allow the reduction of separation standards. An excellent example is the Precision Runway Monitor (PRM). By taking advantage of the surveillance and display advances of PRM, airports can run instrument parallel approaches to runways separated by 3400 feet with the same level of safety as parallel approaches to runways separated by 4300 feet using the standard technology. Despite a wealth of information from flight operations and testing programs, there is no readily quantifiable relationship between numerical safety levels and the separation standards that apply to aircraft on final approach. This paper presents a modeling approach to quantify the risk associated with reducing separation on final approach. Reducing aircraft separation, both laterally and longitudinally, has been the goal of several aviation R&D programs over the past several years. Many of these programs have focused on technological solutions to improve navigation accuracy, surveillance accuracy, aircraft situational awareness, controller situational awareness, and other technical and operational factors that are vital to maintaining flight safety. The risk assessment model relates different types of potential aircraft accidents and incidents and their contribution to overall accident risk. The framework links accident risks to a hierarchy of failsafe mechanisms characterized by procedures and interventions. The model will be used to assess the overall level of safety associated with reducing separation standards and the introduction of new technology and procedures, as envisaged under the Free Flight concept. The model framework can be applied to various aircraft scenarios, including parallel and in

  3. A quantitative risk assessment of exposure to adventitious agents in a cell culture-derived subunit influenza vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregersen, Jens-Peter

    2008-06-19

    A risk-assessment model has demonstrated the ability of a new cell culture-based vaccine manufacturing process to reduce the level of any adventitious agent to a million-fold below infectious levels. The cell culture-derived subunit influenza vaccine (OPTAFLU), Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics) is produced using Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells to propagate seasonal viral strains, as an alternative to embryonated chicken-eggs. As only a limited range of mammalian viruses can grow in MDCK cells, similar to embryonated eggs, MDCK cells can act as an effective filter for a wide range of adventitious agents that might be introduced during vaccine production. However, the introduction of an alternative cell substrate (for example, MDCK cells) into a vaccine manufacturing process requires thorough investigations to assess the potential for adventitious agent risk in the final product, in the unlikely event that contamination should occur. The risk assessment takes into account the entire manufacturing process, from initial influenza virus isolation, through to blending of the trivalent subunit vaccine and worst-case residual titres for the final vaccine formulation have been calculated for >20 viruses or virus families. Maximum residual titres for all viruses tested were in the range of 10(-6) to 10(-16) infectious units per vaccine dose. Thus, the new cell culture-based vaccine manufacturing process can reduce any adventitious agent to a level that is unable to cause infection.

  4. Dose response models and a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework for the Mycobacterium avium complex that account for recent developments in molecular biology, taxonomy, and epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Kerry A; Weir, Mark H; Haas, Charles N

    2017-02-01

    Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) is a group of environmentally-transmitted pathogens of great public health importance. This group is known to be harbored, amplified, and selected for more human-virulent characteristics by amoeba species in aquatic biofilms. However, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has not been performed due to the lack of dose response models resulting from significant heterogeneity within even a single species or subspecies of MAC, as well as the range of human susceptibilities to mycobacterial disease. The primary human-relevant species and subspecies responsible for the majority of the human disease burden and present in drinking water, biofilms, and soil are M. avium subsp. hominissuis, M. intracellulare, and M. chimaera. A critical review of the published literature identified important health endpoints, exposure routes, and susceptible populations for MAC risk assessment. In addition, data sets for quantitative dose-response functions were extracted from published in vivo animal dosing experiments. As a result, seven new exponential dose response models for human-relevant species of MAC with endpoints of lung lesions, death, disseminated infection, liver infection, and lymph node lesions are proposed. Although current physical and biochemical tests used in clinical settings do not differentiate between M. avium and M. intracellulare, differentiating between environmental species and subspecies of the MAC can aid in the assessment of health risks and control of MAC sources. A framework is proposed for incorporating the proposed dose response models into susceptible population- and exposure route-specific QMRA models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Effect of human movement on airborne disease transmission in an airplane cabin: study using numerical modeling and quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Zhuyang; To, Gin Nam Sze; Fu, Sau Chung; Chao, Christopher Yu-Hang; Weng, Wenguo; Huang, Quanyi

    2014-08-06

    Airborne transmission of respiratory infectious disease in indoor environment (e.g. airplane cabin, conference room, hospital, isolated room and inpatient ward) may cause outbreaks of infectious diseases, which may lead to many infection cases and significantly influences on the public health. This issue has received more and more attentions from academics. This work investigates the influence of human movement on the airborne transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in an airplane cabin by using an accurate human model in numerical simulation and comparing the influences of different human movement behaviors on disease transmission. The Eulerian-Lagrangian approach is adopted to simulate the dispersion and deposition of the expiratory aerosols. The dose-response model is used to assess the infection risks of the occupants. The likelihood analysis is performed as a hypothesis test on the input parameters and different human movement pattern assumptions. An in-flight SARS outbreak case is used for investigation. A moving person with different moving speeds is simulated to represent the movement behaviors. A digital human model was used to represent the detailed profile of the occupants, which was obtained by scanning a real thermal manikin using the 3D laser scanning system. The analysis results indicate that human movement can strengthen the downward transport of the aerosols, significantly reduce the overall deposition and removal rate of the suspended aerosols and increase the average infection risk in the cabin. The likelihood estimation result shows that the risk assessment results better fit the outcome of the outbreak case when the movements of the seated passengers are considered. The intake fraction of the moving person is significantly higher than most of the seated passengers. The infection risk distribution in the airplane cabin highly depends on the movement behaviors of the passengers and the index patient. The walking activities of the crew

  6. Quantitative risk assessment of salmon louse-induced mortality of seaward-migrating post-smolt Atlantic salmon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Bråthen Kristoffersen

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The Norwegian government recently implemented a new management system to regulate salmon farming in Norway, aiming to promote environmentally sustainable growth in the aquaculture industry. The Norwegian coast has been divided into 13 production zones and the volume of salmonid production in the zones will be regulated based on salmon lice effects on wild salmonids. Here we present a model for assessing salmon louse-induced mortality of seaward-migrating post-smolts of Atlantic salmon. The model quantifies expected salmon lice infestations and louse-induced mortality of migrating post-smolt salmon from 401 salmon rivers draining into Norwegian coastal waters. It is assumed that migrating post-smolts follow the shortest path from river outlets to the high seas, at constant progression rates. During this migration, fish are infested by salmon lice of farm origin according to an empirical infestation model. Furthermore, louse-induced mortality is estimated from the estimated louse infestations. Rivers draining into production zones on the West Coast of Norway were at the highest risk of adverse lice effects. In comparison, rivers draining into northerly production zones, along with the southernmost production zone, were at lower risk. After adjusting for standing stock biomass, estimates of louse-egg output varied by factors of up to 8 between production zones. Correlation between biomass adjusted output of louse infestation and densities of farmed salmon in the production zones suggests that a large-scale density-dependent host-parasite effect is a major driver of louse infestation rates and parasite-induced mortality. The estimates are sensitive to many of the processes in the chain of events in the model. Nevertheless, we argue that the model is suited to assess spatial and temporal risks associated with farm-origin salmon lice. Keywords: Density dependent, Sea lice, Transmission, Farmed salmon, Migration pathway, Migration time

  7. Quantitative assessment of the influence of tumor necrosis factor alpha polymorphism with gastritis and gastric cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming; Wang, Yinping; Gu, Yahong

    2014-02-01

    Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFA) is an important molecule in inflammatory, infectious, and tumoral processes. Inflammation is one of the early phases in the development of gastric cancer (GC). Therefore, several studies have examined the association of polymorphism in TNFA with gastritis and GC risk. A functional polymorphism, -308G>A (rs1800629), which is located in the promoter of TNFA gene, has been suggested to alter the production of TNF-α and influence cancer risk. To date, a number of studies have been carried out to investigate the relationship between the polymorphism and gastritis or GC susceptibility, but the results were conflicting. To investigate this inconsistency, we performed a meta-analysis of 36 studies for TNFA -308G>A polymorphism to evaluate the effect of TNFA on genetic susceptibility for gastritis and GC. An overall random-effects per-allele odds ratio of 1.16 (95 % confidence interval 1.04-1.29, P = 0.008) was found for the polymorphism. Significant results were also observed using dominant or recessive genetic models. In the subgroup analyses by ethnicity, significant results were found in Caucasians, whereas no significant associations were found among East Asians and other ethnic populations. No associations between the polymorphism and gastritis were observed. In addition, our data indicate that TNFA is involved in GC susceptibility and confers its effect primarily in diffuse type of tumors. Besides, -308G>A polymorphism was found to be significantly associated with both cardiac and noncardiac tumors. This meta-analysis demonstrated that the TNFA -308G>A polymorphism is a risk factor for developing GC, but the associations vary in different ethnic populations.

  8. Quantitative Relationship Between Cumulative Risk Alleles Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoru Kodama

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Many epidemiological studies have assessed the genetic risk of having undiagnosed or of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM using several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs based on findings of genome-wide association studies (GWAS. However, the quantitative association of cumulative risk alleles (RAs of such SNPs with T2DM risk has been unclear. The aim of this meta-analysis is to review the strength of the association between cumulative RAs and T2DM risk. Systematic literature searches were conducted for cross-sectional or longitudinal studies that examined odds ratios (ORs for T2DM in relation to genetic profiles. Logarithm of the estimated OR (log OR of T2DM for 1 increment in RAs carried (1-ΔRA in each study was pooled using a random-effects model. There were 46 eligible studies that included 74,880 cases among 249,365 participants. In 32 studies with a cross-sectional design, the pooled OR for T2DM morbidity for 1-ΔRA was 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13–1.19. In 15 studies that had a longitudinal design, the OR for incident T2DM was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08–1.13. There was large heterogeneity in the magnitude of log OR (P < 0.001 for both cross-sectional studies and longitudinal studies. The top 10 commonly used genes significantly explained the variance in the log OR (P = 0.04 for cross-sectional studies; P = 0.006 for longitudinal studies. The current meta-analysis indicated that carrying 1-ΔRA in T2DM-associated SNPs was associated with a modest risk of prevalent or incident T2DM, although the heterogeneity in the used genes among studies requires us to interpret the results with caution.

  9. IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment II. Use of point-of-departure (PoD) metrics in defining acceptable exposure limits and assessing human risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor, James T; Frötschl, Roland; White, Paul A; Crump, Kenny S; Eastmond, David A; Fukushima, Shoji; Guérard, Melanie; Hayashi, Makoto; Soeteman-Hernández, Lya G; Johnson, George E; Kasamatsu, Toshio; Levy, Dan D; Morita, Takeshi; Müller, Lutz; Schoeny, Rita; Schuler, Maik J; Thybaud, Véronique

    2015-05-01

    This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the need for quantitative dose-response analysis of genetic toxicology data, the existence and appropriate evaluation of threshold responses, and methods to analyze exposure-response relationships and derive points of departure (PoDs) from which acceptable exposure levels could be determined. This report summarizes the QWG discussions and recommendations regarding appropriate approaches to evaluate exposure-related risks of genotoxic damage, including extrapolation below identified PoDs and across test systems and species. Recommendations include the selection of appropriate genetic endpoints and target tissues, uncertainty factors and extrapolation methods to be considered, the importance and use of information on mode of action, toxicokinetics, metabolism, and exposure biomarkers when using quantitative exposure-response data to determine acceptable exposure levels in human populations or to assess the risk associated with known or anticipated exposures. The empirical relationship between genetic damage (mutation and chromosomal aberration) and cancer in animal models was also examined. It was concluded that there is a general correlation between cancer induction and mutagenic and/or clastogenic damage for agents thought to act via a genotoxic mechanism, but that the correlation is limited due to an inadequate number of cases in which mutation and cancer can be compared at a sufficient number of doses in the same target tissues of the same species and strain exposed under directly comparable routes and experimental protocols. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Overall and domain-specific life satisfaction when living with familial Alzheimer's disease risk: A quantitative approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergman, Mette; Graff, Caroline; Eriksdotter, Maria; Schuster, Marja; Fugl-Meyer, Kerstin S

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we explored life satisfaction and sense of coherence in relation to biopsychosocial variables in individuals at risk for the development of familial Alzheimer's disease. Forty nine individuals (response rate: 96%) were interviewed. Life satisfaction was found to be high for the majority of participants. Those who were older than the expected age of onset of disease, those satisfaction with life as a whole, psychological health, vocation, and economy. Women seem to be more vulnerable than men, and attention should be given to those who have not passed the age of expected symptom onset. Early and recurrent counseling and psychosocial support were found to be essential. Issues related to vocation and economy are areas of concern, and are closely associated with sense of coherence, life satisfaction, and psychological health. This study emphasizes the importance of professional teams working together with the patient and their families. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  11. A quantitative look at fluorosis, fluoride exposure, and intake in children using a health risk assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdal, Serap; Buchanan, Susan N

    2005-01-01

    The prevalence of dental fluorosis in the United States has increased during the last 30 years. In this study, we used a mathematical model commonly employed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to estimate average daily intake of fluoride via all applicable exposure pathways contributing to fluorosis risk for infants and children living in hypothetical fluoridated and nonfluoridated communities. We also estimated hazard quotients for each exposure pathway and hazard indices for exposure conditions representative of central tendency exposure (CTE) and reasonable maximum exposure (RME) conditions. The exposure pathways considered were uptake of fluoride via fluoridated drinking water, beverages, cow's milk, foods, and fluoride supplements for both age groups. Additionally, consumption of infant formula for infants and inadvertent swallowing of toothpaste while brushing and incidental ingestion of soil for children were also considered. The cumulative daily fluoride intake in fluoridated areas was estimated as 0.20 and 0.11 mg/kg-day for RME and CTE scenarios, respectively, for infants. On the other hand, the RME and CTE estimates for children were 0.23 and 0.06 mg/kg-day, respectively. In areas where municipal water is not fluoridated, our RME and CTE estimates for cumulative daily average intake were, respectively, 0.11 and 0.08 mg/kg-day for infants and 0.21 and 0.06 mg/kg-day for children. Our theoretical estimates are in good agreement with measurement-based estimates reported in the literature. Although CTE estimates were within the optimum range for dental caries prevention, the RME estimates were above the upper tolerable intake limit. This suggests that some children may be at risk for fluorosis.

  12. The BSE risk of processing meat and bone meal in nonruminant feed: a quantitative assessment for the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vos, Clazien J; Heres, Lourens

    2009-04-01

    The total ban on use of meat and bone meal (MBM) in livestock feed has been very successful in reducing bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) spread, but also implies a waste of high-quality proteins resulting in economic and ecological loss. Now that the BSE epidemic is fading out, a partial lifting of the MBM ban might be considered. The objective of this study was to assess the BSE risk for the Netherlands if MBM derived from animals fit for human consumption, i.e., category 3 MBM, would be used in nonruminant feed. A stochastic simulation model was constructed that calculates (1) the probability that infectivity of undetected BSE-infected cows ends up with calves and (2) the quantity of infectivity (Q(inf)) consumed by calves in case of such an incident. Three pathways were considered via which infectivity can reach cattle: (1) cross-contamination in the feed mill, (2) cross-contamination on the primary farm, and (3) pasture contamination. Model calculations indicate that the overall probability that infectivity ends up with calves is 3.2%. In most such incidents the Q(inf) is extremely small (median = 6.5 x 10(-12) ID(50); mean = 1.8 x 10(-4) ID(50)), corresponding to an average probability of 1.3 x 10(-4) that an incident results in >or=1 new BSE infections. Cross-contamination in the feed mill is the most risky pathway. Combining model results with Dutch BSE prevalence estimates for the coming years, it can be concluded that the BSE risk of using category 3 MBM derived from Dutch cattle in nonruminant feed is very low.

  13. Quantitative weight of evidence assessment of risk to honeybee colonies from use of imidacloprid, clothianidin, and thiamethoxam as seed treatments: a postscript.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Keith R; Stephenson, Gladys L

    2017-01-01

    This paper is a postscript to the four companion papers in this issue of the Journal (Solomon and Stephenson 2017a , 2017b ; Stephenson and Solomon 2017a , 2017b ). The first paper in the series described the conceptual model and the methods of the QWoE process. The other three papers described the application of the QWoE process to studies on imidacloprid (IMI), clothianidin (CTD), and thiamethoxam (TMX). This postscript was written to summarize the utility of the methods used in the quantitative weight of evidence (QWoE), the overall relevance of the results, and the environmental implications of the findings. Hopefully, this will be helpful to others who wish to conduct QWoEs and use these methods in assessment of risks.

  14. Applied quantitative finance

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Cathy; Overbeck, Ludger

    2017-01-01

    This volume provides practical solutions and introduces recent theoretical developments in risk management, pricing of credit derivatives, quantification of volatility and copula modeling. This third edition is devoted to modern risk analysis based on quantitative methods and textual analytics to meet the current challenges in banking and finance. It includes 14 new contributions and presents a comprehensive, state-of-the-art treatment of cutting-edge methods and topics, such as collateralized debt obligations, the high-frequency analysis of market liquidity, and realized volatility. The book is divided into three parts: Part 1 revisits important market risk issues, while Part 2 introduces novel concepts in credit risk and its management along with updated quantitative methods. The third part discusses the dynamics of risk management and includes risk analysis of energy markets and for cryptocurrencies. Digital assets, such as blockchain-based currencies, have become popular b ut are theoretically challenging...

  15. Cost-effectiveness of quantitative hepatitis B virus surface antigen testing in pregnancy in predicting vertical transmission risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadi Kochaksaraei, Golasa; Congly, Stephen E; Matwiy, Trudy; Castillo, Eliana; Martin, Steven R; Charlton, Carmen L; Coffin, Carla S

    2016-11-01

    Vertical transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) can occur despite immunoprophylaxis in mothers with high HBV DNA levels (>5-7 log 10 IU/ml). Quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen (qHBsAg) testing could be used as a surrogate marker to identify high viral load carriers, but there is limited data in pregnancy. We conducted a prospective observational study to determine the cost-effectiveness and utility of qHBsAg as a valid surrogate marker of HBV DNA. Pregnant patients with chronic hepatitis B were recruited from a tertiary referral centre. HBV DNA levels and qHBsAg were assessed in the second to third trimester. Statistical analysis was performed by Spearman's rank correlation and student's t-test. The cost-effectiveness of qHBsAg as compared to HBV DNA testing was calculated. Ninety nine women with 103 pregnancies, median age 32 years, 65% Asian, 23% African and 12% other [Hispanic, Caucasian] were enrolled. Overall, 23% (23/99) were HBV e Ag (HBeAg)-positive. A significant correlation between qHBsAg and HBV DNA levels was noted in HBeAg-positive patients (r = 0.79, P < 0.05) but not in HBeAg-negative patients (r = 0.17, P = 0.06). In receiver operating characteristic analysis, the optimal qHBsAg cut-off values for predicting maternal viraemia associated with immunoprophylaxis failure (i.e., HBV DNA ≥7 log 10 IU/ml) was 4.3 log 10 IU/ml (accuracy 98.7%, sensitivity 94.7%, specificity 94.4%) (95% CI, 97-100%, P < 0.05). Use of HBV DNA as compared to qHBsAg costs approximately $20 000 more per infection prevented. In resource poor regions, qHBsAg could be used as a more cost-effective marker for high maternal viraemia, and indicate when anti-HBV nucleos/tide analogue therapy should be used to prevent HBV immunoprophylaxis failure. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Testing decision rules for categorizing species' extinction risk to help develop quantitative listing criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Tracey J; Taylor, Barbara L; Thompson, Grant G; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Ralls, Katherine; Runge, Michael C; Merrick, Richard

    2013-08-01

    Lack of guidance for interpreting the definitions of endangered and threatened in the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has resulted in case-by-case decision making leaving the process vulnerable to being considered arbitrary or capricious. Adopting quantitative decision rules would remedy this but requires the agency to specify the relative urgency concerning extinction events over time, cutoff risk values corresponding to different levels of protection, and the importance given to different types of listing errors. We tested the performance of 3 sets of decision rules that use alternative functions for weighting the relative urgency of future extinction events: a threshold rule set, which uses a decision rule of x% probability of extinction over y years; a concave rule set, where the relative importance of future extinction events declines exponentially over time; and a shoulder rule set that uses a sigmoid shape function, where relative importance declines slowly at first and then more rapidly. We obtained decision cutoffs by interviewing several biologists and then emulated the listing process with simulations that covered a range of extinction risks typical of ESA listing decisions. We evaluated performance of the decision rules under different data quantities and qualities on the basis of the relative importance of misclassification errors. Although there was little difference between the performance of alternative decision rules for correct listings, the distribution of misclassifications differed depending on the function used. Misclassifications for the threshold and concave listing criteria resulted in more overprotection errors, particularly as uncertainty increased, whereas errors for the shoulder listing criteria were more symmetrical. We developed and tested the framework for quantitative decision rules for listing species under the U.S. ESA. If policy values can be agreed on, use of this framework would improve the implementation of the ESA by

  17. Genetic and environmental determinants of violence risk in psychotic disorders: a multivariate quantitative genetic study of 1.8 million Swedish twins and siblings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sariaslan, A; Larsson, H; Fazel, S

    2016-09-01

    Patients diagnosed with psychotic disorders (for example, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder) have elevated risks of committing violent acts, particularly if they are comorbid with substance misuse. Despite recent insights from quantitative and molecular genetic studies demonstrating considerable pleiotropy in the genetic architecture of these phenotypes, there is currently a lack of large-scale studies that have specifically examined the aetiological links between psychotic disorders and violence. Using a sample of all Swedish individuals born between 1958 and 1989 (n=3 332 101), we identified a total of 923 259 twin-sibling pairs. Patients were identified using the National Patient Register using validated algorithms based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 8-10. Univariate quantitative genetic models revealed that all phenotypes (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, substance misuse, and violent crime) were highly heritable (h(2)=53-71%). Multivariate models further revealed that schizophrenia was a stronger predictor of violence (r=0.32; 95% confidence interval: 0.30-0.33) than bipolar disorder (r=0.23; 0.21-0.25), and large proportions (51-67%) of these phenotypic correlations were explained by genetic factors shared between each disorder, substance misuse, and violence. Importantly, we found that genetic influences that were unrelated to substance misuse explained approximately a fifth (21%; 20-22%) of the correlation with violent criminality in bipolar disorder but none of the same correlation in schizophrenia (Pbipolar disordergenetically similar phenotypes as the latter sources may include aetiologically important clues. Clinically, these findings underline the importance of assessing risk of different phenotypes together and integrating interventions for psychiatric disorders, substance misuse, and violence.

  18. Role of quantitative myocardial positron emission tomography for risk stratification in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a 2016 reappraisal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castagnoli, Helga; Passeri, Alessandro; Berti, Valentina; Sciagra, Roberto [University of Florence, Department of Experimental and Clinical Biomedical Sciences - Nuclear Medicine Unit, Firenze (Italy); Ferrantini, Cecilia; Coppini, Raffaele; Baldini, Katia; Cecchi, Franco; Olivotto, Iacopo [Careggi University Hospital, Referral Center for Myocardial Diseases and Genetic Diagnostics Unit, Florence (Italy)

    2016-12-15

    Myocardial blood flow <1.1 mL/min/g following dipyridamole (Dip-MBF) assessed by positron emission tomography (PET) was identified in 2003 as an important outcome predictor in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), based on scans performed in the 90s. However, such extreme Dip-MBF impairment is rarely observed in contemporary cohorts. We, therefore, reassessed the Dip-MBF threshold defining high-risk HCM patients. Dip-MBF was measured using {sup 13}N-ammonia in 100 HCM consecutive patients, prospectively enrolled and followed for 4.0 ± 2.2 years. Outcome was assessed based on tertiles of Dip-MBF. The study end-point was a combination of cardiovascular death, progression to severe functional limitation, cardioembolic stroke, life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias. Global Dip-MBF was 1.95 ± 0.85, ranging from 0.7 to 5.9 mL/min/g. Dip-MBF tertile cut-off values were: 0.73 to 1.53 mL/min/g (lowest), 1.54 to 2.13 mL/min/g (middle), and 2.14 to 5.89 mL/min/g (highest). During follow-up, lowest tertile Dip-MBF was associated with sevenfold independent risk of unfavorable outcome compared to the other two tertiles. Dip-MBF 1.35 mL/min/g was identified as the best threshold for outcome prediction. Regional perfusion analysis showed that all cardiac deaths (n = 4) occurred in patients in the lowest tertile of lateral wall Dip-MBF (≤1.72 mL/min/g); septal Dip-MBF was not predictive. Dip-MBF confirms its role as potent predictor of outcome in HCM. However, the threshold for prediction in a contemporary cohort is higher than that reported in earlier studies. Dip-MBF impairment in the lateral wall, possibly reflecting diffuse disease extending to non-hypertrophic regions, is a sensitive predictor of mortality in HCM. (orig.)

  19. Role of quantitative myocardial positron emission tomography for risk stratification in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a 2016 reappraisal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castagnoli, Helga; Passeri, Alessandro; Berti, Valentina; Sciagra, Roberto; Ferrantini, Cecilia; Coppini, Raffaele; Baldini, Katia; Cecchi, Franco; Olivotto, Iacopo

    2016-01-01

    Myocardial blood flow <1.1 mL/min/g following dipyridamole (Dip-MBF) assessed by positron emission tomography (PET) was identified in 2003 as an important outcome predictor in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), based on scans performed in the 90s. However, such extreme Dip-MBF impairment is rarely observed in contemporary cohorts. We, therefore, reassessed the Dip-MBF threshold defining high-risk HCM patients. Dip-MBF was measured using "1"3N-ammonia in 100 HCM consecutive patients, prospectively enrolled and followed for 4.0 ± 2.2 years. Outcome was assessed based on tertiles of Dip-MBF. The study end-point was a combination of cardiovascular death, progression to severe functional limitation, cardioembolic stroke, life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias. Global Dip-MBF was 1.95 ± 0.85, ranging from 0.7 to 5.9 mL/min/g. Dip-MBF tertile cut-off values were: 0.73 to 1.53 mL/min/g (lowest), 1.54 to 2.13 mL/min/g (middle), and 2.14 to 5.89 mL/min/g (highest). During follow-up, lowest tertile Dip-MBF was associated with sevenfold independent risk of unfavorable outcome compared to the other two tertiles. Dip-MBF 1.35 mL/min/g was identified as the best threshold for outcome prediction. Regional perfusion analysis showed that all cardiac deaths (n = 4) occurred in patients in the lowest tertile of lateral wall Dip-MBF (≤1.72 mL/min/g); septal Dip-MBF was not predictive. Dip-MBF confirms its role as potent predictor of outcome in HCM. However, the threshold for prediction in a contemporary cohort is higher than that reported in earlier studies. Dip-MBF impairment in the lateral wall, possibly reflecting diffuse disease extending to non-hypertrophic regions, is a sensitive predictor of mortality in HCM. (orig.)

  20. Distribution of bacterial contamination in non-sterile pharmaceutical materials and assessment of its risk to the health of the final consumers quantitatively

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Essam Eissa

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Bacterial contamination control in pharmaceutical products is a critical aspect in the field of drug manufacturing industry due to the encountered risk to the patients' health and possibly their life. The application of commercial bacterial identification system is crucial to identify the type of contamination and its source to anticipate the impact of bioburden on the products and setting corrective and preventive actions. During the period of one year, random samples from raw materials and final products were tested according to United States Pharmacopeia, and those that showed suspect results for specified microorganisms and/or out-of-specification limits or showed out-of-trend results were subjected to further identification by using miniaturized biochemical identification system after performing Gram stain. From the total bacterial isolates of the investigated products, more than 60% were primarily belonging to Micrococcaceae 16.98% (empty hard gelatin capsules, Enterobacteriaceae 18.86% (vaginal cream applicator, plastic caps for bottles, Sorbitol solution, finished hard gelatin capsule product, topical cream and oral suspension and Bacillaceae 24.53% (Talc powder, liquid oral preparation and finished hard gelatin capsule product. Gram Positive and Negative samples were 56.60% and 41.51% respectively from the total investigated sample products and materials. Finished pharmaceutical products constituted 53.33% and 68.18% from Gram-positive and Gram-negative microorganisms respectively. An approach to quantitative risk assessment for pharmaceutical products was conducted on selected medicinal items and showed that Enterobacteriaceae followed by Burkholderiaceae contributed by more than 80% to the major hazard that could be delivered to patients through drugs. The applied risk can be used as a milestone for setting goals by pharmaceutical companies to improve the safety of medicinal products microbiologically and to identify the major sources

  1. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy green vegetables consumed at salad bars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, E; Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; van der Fels-Klerx, H J

    2010-02-01

    Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green vegetables in salad from salad bars in The Netherlands. Pathogen growth was modeled in Aladin (Agro Logistics Analysis and Design Instrument) using time-temperature profiles in the chilled supply chain and one particular restaurant with a salad bar. A second-order Monte Carlo risk assessment model was constructed (using @Risk) to estimate the public health effects. The temperature in the studied cold chain was well controlled below 5 degrees C. Growth of E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella was minimal (17 and 15%, respectively). Growth of L. monocytogenes was considerably greater (194%). Based on first-order Monte Carlo simulations, the average number of cases per year in The Netherlands associated the consumption leafy greens in salads from salad bars was 166, 187, and 0.3 for E. coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and L. monocytogenes, respectively. The ranges of the average number of annual cases as estimated by second-order Monte Carlo simulation (with prevalence and number of visitors as uncertain variables) were 42 to 551 for E. coli O157:H7, 81 to 281 for Salmonella, and 0.1 to 0.9 for L. monocytogenes. This study included an integration of modeling pathogen growth in the supply chain of fresh leafy vegetables destined for restaurant salad bars using software designed to model and design logistics and modeling the public health effects using probabilistic risk assessment software.

  2. Quantitative risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in frozen ground beef patties consumed by young children in French households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delignette-Muller, M L; Cornu, M

    2008-11-30

    A quantitative risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in frozen ground beef patties consumed by children under 10 years of age in French households was conducted by a national study group describing an outbreak which occurred in France in 2005. Our exposure assessment model incorporates results from French surveys on consumption frequency of ground beef patties, serving size and consumption preference, microbial destruction experiments and microbial counts on patties sampled from the industrial batch which were responsible for the outbreak. Two different exposure models were proposed, respectively for children under the age of 5 and for children between 5 and 10 years. For each of these two age groups, a single-hit dose-response model was proposed to describe the probability of hemolytic and uremic syndrome (HUS) as a function of the ingested dose. For each group, the single parameter of this model was estimated by Bayesian inference, using the results of the exposure assessment and the epidemiological data collected during the outbreak. Results show that children under 5 years of age are roughly 5 times more susceptible to the pathogen than children over 5 years. Exposure and dose-response models were used in a scenario analysis in order to validate the use of the model and to propose appropriate guidelines in order to prevent new outbreaks. The impact of the cooking preference was evaluated, showing that only a well-done cooking notably reduces the HUS risk, without annulling it. For each age group, a relation between the mean individual HUS risk per serving and the contamination level in a ground beef batch was proposed, as a tool to help French risk managers.

  3. Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment of Pulmonary Emphysema with T2-Weighted PROPELLER MRI in a High-Risk Population Compared to Low-Dose CT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier-Schroers, Michael; Sprinkart, Alois Martin; Becker, Manuel; Homsi, Rami; Thomas, Daniel

    2018-03-07

     To determine the suitability of T2-weighted PROPELLER MRI for the assessment of pulmonary emphysema.  60 participants in a lung cancer screening program (30 subjects with pulmonary emphysema, and 30 control subjects without emphysema) were included for this retrospective study. All subjects were examined with low-dose CT (LDCT) and MRI within the screening program. The use of a T2-weighted PROPELLER sequence for the assessment of emphysema was analyzed and correlated with the results of LDCT. The presence and the extent of pulmonary emphysema were first assessed qualitatively using a three-point score, and then quantitatively with a semi-automated software program to obtain emphysema indices.  All 30 cases with pulmonary emphysema were accurately detected by MRI. There were 3 cases with emphysema according to MRI without emphysematous changes on LDCT (false-positive results). The qualitative scores as well as the emphysema indices were significantly higher in the emphysema group compared to the control group for MRI and LDCT (p emphysema group and r = 0.668/p emphysema index: r = 0.960/p emphysema group and r = 0.746/p pulmonary emphysema may be assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by T2-weighted PROPELLER MRI with very good correlation to LDCT.   · T2-weighted PROPELLER MRI may be suitable for the assessment of pulmonary emphysema.. · There was significant correlation between MRI and LDCT regarding qualitative scores and quantitative emphysema indices in our study with correlation coefficients for different subgroups ranging from r = 0.668 to r = 0.960.. · T2-weighted PROPELLER MRI may have the potential to be used for follow-up examinations in patients with severe emphysema to avoid radiation exposure of repeated CTs.. · Meier-Schroers M, Sprinkart AM, Becker M et al. Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment of Pulmonary Emphysema with T2-Weighted PROPELLER MRI in a High-Risk Population Compared to Low-Dose CT

  4. Quantitative risk analysis for potentially resistant E. coli in surface waters caused by antibiotic use in agricultural systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limayem, Alya; Martin, Elizabeth M

    2014-01-01

    Antibiotics are frequently used in agricultural systems to promote livestock health and to control bacterial contaminants. Given the upsurge of the resistant fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in the surface waters, a novel statistical method namely, microbial risk assessment (MRA) was performed, to evaluate the probability of infection by resistant FIB on populations exposed to recreational waters. Diarrheagenic Escherichia coli, except E. coli O157:H7, were selected for their prevalence in aquatic ecosystem. A comparative study between a typical E. coli pathway and a case scenario aggravated by antibiotic use has been performed via Crystal Ball® software in an effort to analyze a set of available inputs provided by the US institutions including E. coli concentrations in US Great Lakes through using random sampling and probability distributions. Results from forecasting a possible worst-case scenario dose-response, accounted for an approximate 50% chance for 20% of the exposed human populations to be infected by recreational water in the U.S. However, in a typical scenario, there is a 50% chance of infection for only 1% of the exposed human populations. The uncertain variable, E. coli concentration accounted for approximately 92.1% in a typical scenario as the major contributing factor of the dose-response model. Resistant FIB in recreational waters that are exacerbated by a low dose of antibiotic pollutants would increase the adverse health effects in exposed human populations by 10 fold.

  5. Human campylobacteriosis related to the consumption of raw milk sold by vending machines in Italy: Quantitative risk assessment based on official controls over four years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, Federica; Bonilauri, Paolo; Amatiste, Simonetta; Arrigoni, Norma; Bianchi, Manila; Losio, Marina Nadia; Bilei, Stefano; Cascone, Giuseppe; Comin, Damiano; Daminelli, Paolo; Decastelli, Lucia; Merialdi, Giuseppe; Mioni, Renzo; Peli, Angelo; Petruzzelli, Annalisa; Tonucci, Franco; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2015-09-01

    A quantitative risk assessment (RA) model was developed to describe the risk of campylobacteriosis linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. Exposure assessment was based on the official microbiological records of raw milk samples from vending machines monitored by the regional Veterinary Authorities from 2008 to 2011, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, consumption preference and age of consumers. The differential risk considered milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst time-temperature field handling conditions detected. Two separate RA models were developed, one for the consumption of boiled milk and the other for the consumption of raw milk, and two different dose-response (D-R) relationships were considered. The RA model predicted no human campylobacteriosis cases per year either in the best (4°C) storage conditions or in the case of thermal abuse in case of boiling raw milk, whereas in case of raw milk consumption the annual estimated campylobacteriosis cases depend on the dose-response relationships used in the model (D-R I or D-R II), the milk time-temperature storage conditions, consumer behaviour and age of consumers, namely young (with two cut-off values of ≤5 or ≤6 years old for the sensitive population) versus adult consumers. The annual estimated cases for young consumers using D-R II for the sensitive population (≤5 years old) ranged between 1013.7/100,000 population and 8110.3/100,000 population and for adult consumers using D-R I between 79.4/100,000 population and 333.1/100,000 population. Quantification of the risks associated with raw milk consumption is necessary from a public health perspective and the proposed RA model represents a useful and flexible tool to perform future RAs based on local consumer habits to support decision-making on safety policies. Further educational programmes for raw milk

  6. Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk in Małopolska (Poland), Supported by an Object-Based Analysis of High-Resolution Satellite Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drzewiecki, Wojciech; Wężyk, Piotr; Pierzchalski, Marcin; Szafrańska, Beata

    2014-06-01

    In 2011 the Marshal Office of Małopolska Voivodeship decided to evaluate the vulnerability of soils to water erosion for the entire region. The quantitative and qualitative assessment of the erosion risk for the soils of the Małopolska region was done based on the USLE approach. The special work-flow of geoinformation technologies was used to fulfil this goal. A high-resolution soil map, together with rainfall data, a detailed digital elevation model and statistical information about areas sown with particular crops created the input information for erosion modelling in GIS environment. The satellite remote sensing technology and the object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach gave valuable support to this study. RapidEye satellite images were used to obtain the essential up-to-date data about land use and vegetation cover for the entire region (15,000 km2). The application of OBIA also led to defining the direction of field cultivation and the mapping of contour tillage areas. As a result, the spatially differentiated values of erosion control practice factor were used. Both, the potential and the actual soil erosion risk were assessed quantificatively and qualitatively. The results of the erosion assessment in the Małopolska Voivodeship reveal the fact that a majority of its agricultural lands is characterized by moderate or low erosion risk levels. However, high-resolution erosion risk maps show its substantial spatial diversity. According to our study, average or higher actual erosion intensity levels occur for 10.6 % of agricultural land, i.e. 3.6 % of the entire voivodeship area. In 20 % of the municipalities there is a very urgent demand for erosion control. In the next 23 % an urgent erosion control is needed. Our study showed that even a slight improvement of P-factor estimation may have an influence on modeling results. In our case, despite a marginal change of erosion assessment figures on a regional scale, the influence on the final prioritization of

  7. Her-2/neu expression in node-negative breast cancer: direct tissue quantitation by computerized image analysis and association of overexpression with increased risk of recurrent disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Press, M F; Pike, M C; Chazin, V R; Hung, G; Udove, J A; Markowicz, M; Danyluk, J; Godolphin, W; Sliwkowski, M; Akita, R

    1993-10-15

    The HER-2/neu proto-oncogene (also known as c-erb B-2) is homologous with, but distinct from, the epidermal growth factor receptor. Amplification of this gene in node-positive breast cancers has been shown to correlate with both earlier relapse and shorter overall survival. In node-negative breast cancer patients, the subgroup for which accurate prognostic data could make a significant contribution to treatment decisions, the prognostic utility of HER-2/neu amplification and/or overexpression has been controversial. The purpose of this report is to address the issues surrounding this controversy and to evaluate the prognostic utility of overexpression in a carefully followed group of patients using appropriately characterized reagents and methods. In this report we present data from a study of HER-2/neu expression designed specifically to test whether or not overexpression is associated with an increased risk of recurrence in node-negative breast cancers. From a cohort of 704 women with node-negative breast cancer who experienced recurrent disease (relapsed cases) 105 were matched with 105 women with no recurrence (disease-free controls) after the equivalent follow-up period. Immunohistochemistry was used to assess HER-2/neu expression in archival tissue blocks from both relapsed cases and their matched disease-free controls. Importantly, a series of molecularly characterized breast cancer specimens were used to confirm that the antibody used was of sufficient sensitivity and specificity to identify those cancers overexpressing the HER-2/neu protein in this formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue cohort. In addition, a quantitative approach was developed to more accurately assess the amount of HER-2/neu protein identified by immunostaining tumor tissue. This was done using a purified HER-2/neu protein synthesized in a bacterial expression vector and protein lysates derived from a series of cell lines, engineered to express a defined range of HER-2/neu oncoprotein

  8. Quantitative Risk - Phases 1 & 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-12

    No. 4, November 2002 29. Ward, D., “The Comic Guide To Improving Defense Acquisitions”, Department of Defense, 2012 30. Nilsson, P.,Ohlsson, E...Conference Professional Education Program, 2002 Contract Number: H98230-08-D-0171 TO 0030, RT 040 Report No. SERC-2013-TR-040-3 Volume I November

  9. Increased brain iron deposition is a risk factor for brain atrophy in patients with haemodialysis: a combined study of quantitative susceptibility mapping and whole brain volume analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Chao; Zhang, Mengjie; Long, Miaomiao; Chu, Zhiqiang; Wang, Tong; Wang, Lijun; Guo, Yu; Yan, Shuo; Haacke, E Mark; Shen, Wen; Xia, Shuang

    2015-08-01

    To explore the correlation between increased brain iron deposition and brain atrophy in patients with haemodialysis and their correlation with clinical biomarkers and neuropsychological test. Forty two patients with haemodialysis and forty one age- and gender-matched healthy controls were recruited in this prospective study. 3D whole brain high resolution T1WI and susceptibility weighted imaging were scanned on a 3 T MRI system. The brain volume was analyzed using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) in patients and to compare with that of healthy controls. Quantitative susceptibility mapping was used to measure and compare the susceptibility of different structures between patients and healthy controls. Correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationship between the brain volume, iron deposition and neuropsychological scores. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to explore the effect of clinical biomarkers on the brain volumes in patients. Compared with healthy controls, patients with haemodialysis showed decreased volume of bilateral putamen and left insular lobe (All P brain iron deposition is negatively correlated with the decreased volume of bilateral putamen (P brain iron deposition and dialysis duration was risk factors for brain atrophy in patients with haemodialysis. The decreased gray matter volume of the left insular lobe was correlated with neurocognitive impairment.

  10. Effects of a 20 year rain event: a quantitative microbial risk assessment of a case of contaminated bathing water in Copenhagen, Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, S T; Erichsen, A C; Mark, O; Albrechtsen, H-J

    2013-12-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) often lack data on water quality leading to great uncertainty in the QMRA because of the many assumptions. The quantity of waste water contamination was estimated and included in a QMRA on an extreme rain event leading to combined sewer overflow (CSO) to bathing water where an ironman competition later took place. Two dynamic models, (1) a drainage model and (2) a 3D hydrodynamic model, estimated the dilution of waste water from source to recipient. The drainage model estimated that 2.6% of waste water was left in the system before CSO and the hydrodynamic model estimated that 4.8% of the recipient bathing water came from the CSO, so on average there was 0.13% of waste water in the bathing water during the ironman competition. The total estimated incidence rate from a conservative estimate of the pathogenic load of five reference pathogens was 42%, comparable to 55% in an epidemiological study of the case. The combination of applying dynamic models and exposure data led to an improved QMRA that included an estimate of the dilution factor. This approach has not been described previously.

  11. Coronary risk factors and myocardial blood flow in patients evaluated for coronary artery disease: a quantitative [15O]H2O PET/CT study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danad, Ibrahim; Appelman, Yolande E.; Haan, Stefan de; Allaart, Cornelis P.; Rossum, Albert C. van; Knaapen, Paul; Raijmakers, Pieter G.; Harms, Hendrik J.; Hoekstra, Otto S.; Lammertsma, Adriaan A.; Lubberink, Mark; Oever, Mijntje L.P. van den; Kuijk, Cornelis van

    2012-01-01

    There has been increasing interest in quantitative myocardial blood flow (MBF) imaging over the last years and it is expected to become a routinely used technique in clinical practice. Positron emission tomography (PET) using [ 15 O]H 2 O is the established gold standard for quantification of MBF in vivo. A fundamental issue when performing quantitative MBF imaging is to define the limits of MBF in a clinically suitable population. The aims of the present study were to determine the limits of MBF and to determine the relationship among coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors, gender and MBF in a predominantly symptomatic patient cohort without significant CAD. A total of 128 patients (mean age 54 ± 10 years, 50 men) with a low to intermediate pretest likelihood of CAD were referred for noninvasive evaluation of CAD using a hybrid PET/computed tomography (PET/CT) scanner. MBF was quantified with [ 15 O]H 2 O at rest and during adenosine-induced hyperaemia. Obstructive CAD was excluded in these patients by means of invasive or CT-based coronary angiography. Global average baseline MBF values were 0.91 ± 0.34 and 1.09 ± 0.30 ml.min -1 .g -1 (range 0.54-2.35 and 0.59-2.75 ml.min -1 .g -1 ) in men and women, respectively (p -1 .g -1 in men and women, respectively; p = 0.08). Global average hyperaemic MBF values were 3.44 ± 1.20 ml.min -1 .g -1 in the whole study population, and 2.90 ± 0.85 and 3.78 ± 1.27 ml.min -1 .g -1 (range 1.52-5.22 and 1.72-8.15 ml.min -1 .g -1 ) in men and women, respectively (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified male gender, age and body mass index as having an independently negative impact on hyperaemic MBF. Gender, age and body mass index substantially influence reference values and should be corrected for when interpreting hyperaemic MBF values. (orig.)

  12. Risco privado em infra-estrutura pública: uma análise quantitativa de risco como ferramenta de modelagem de contratos Private risk in public infrastructure: a quantitative risk analysis as a contract modeling tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz E. T. Brandão

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Parcerias público-privadas (PPP são arranjos contratuais onde o governo assume compromissos futuros por meio de garantias e opções. São alternativas para aumentar a eficiência do Estado por uma alocação mais eficiente de incentivos e riscos. No entanto, a determinação do nível ótimo de garantias e a própria alocação de riscos são geralmente realizadas de forma subjetiva, podendo levar o governo a ter que assumir passivos significativos. Este artigo propõe um modelo de valoração quantitativa de garantias governamentais em projetos de PPP por meio da metodologia das opções reais, e este modelo é aplicado a um projeto de concessão rodoviária. Os autores analisam o impacto de diversos níveis de garantia de receita sobre o valor e risco do projeto, bem como o valor esperado do desembolso futuro do governo em cada uma das situações, concluindo que é possível ao poder público determinar o nível ótimo de garantia em função do grau de redução de risco desejado, e que o desenho e a modelagem contratual de projetos de PPP podem se beneficiar de ferramentas quantitativas aqui apresentadas.Public private partnerships (PPP are contractual arrangements in which the government assumes future obligations by providing project guarantees. They are considered a way of increasing government efficiency through a more efficient allocation of risks and incentives. On the other hand, the assessment and determination the optimal level of these guarantees is usually subjective, exposing the government to potentially high future liabilities. This article proposes a quantitative model for the evaluation of government guarantees in PPP projects under the real options approach, and applies this model to a toll highway concession with a minimum revenue guarantee. It studies the impact of different guarantee levels on the value and the risk of the project, as well as the expected level of future cash payments to be made by the government in

  13. Quantitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Roger

    2015-04-01

    This article describes the basic tenets of quantitative research. The concepts of dependent and independent variables are addressed and the concept of measurement and its associated issues, such as error, reliability and validity, are explored. Experiments and surveys – the principal research designs in quantitative research – are described and key features explained. The importance of the double-blind randomised controlled trial is emphasised, alongside the importance of longitudinal surveys, as opposed to cross-sectional surveys. Essential features of data storage are covered, with an emphasis on safe, anonymous storage. Finally, the article explores the analysis of quantitative data, considering what may be analysed and the main uses of statistics in analysis.

  14. Quantitative habitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shock, Everett L; Holland, Melanie E

    2007-12-01

    A framework is proposed for a quantitative approach to studying habitability. Considerations of environmental supply and organismal demand of energy lead to the conclusions that power units are most appropriate and that the units for habitability become watts per organism. Extreme and plush environments are revealed to be on a habitability continuum, and extreme environments can be quantified as those where power supply only barely exceeds demand. Strategies for laboratory and field experiments are outlined that would quantify power supplies, power demands, and habitability. An example involving a comparison of various metabolisms pursued by halophiles is shown to be well on the way to a quantitative habitability analysis.

  15. [QUANTITATIVE DNA EVALUATION OF THE HIGH CARCINOGENIC RISK OF HUMAN PAPILLOMA VIRUSES AND HUMAN HERPES VIRUSES IN MALES WITH FERTILITY DISORDERS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evdokimov, V V; Naumenko, V A; Tulenev, Yu A; Kurilo, L F; Kovalyk, V P; Sorokina, T M; Lebedeva, A L; Gomberg, M A; Kushch, A A

    2016-01-01

    Infertility is an actual medical and social problem. In 50% of couples it is associated with the male factor and in more than 50% of cases the etiology of the infertility remains insufficiently understood. The goal of this work was to study the prevalence and to perform quantitative analysis of the human herpes viruses (HHV) and high carcinogenic risk papilloma viruses (HR HPV) in males with infertility, as well as to assess the impact of these infections on sperm parameters. Ejaculate samples obtained from 196 males fall into 3 groups. Group 1 included men with the infertility of unknown etiology (n = 112); group 2, patients who had female partners with the history of spontaneous abortion (n = 63); group 3 (control), healthy men (n = 21). HHV and HR HPV DNA in the ejaculates were detected in a total of 42/196 (21.4%) males: in 31 and 11 patients in groups 1 and 2, respectively (p > 0.05) and in none of healthy males. HHV were detected in 24/42; HR HPV, in 18/42 males (p > 0.05) without significant difference between the groups. Among HR HPV genotypes of the clade A9 in ejaculate were more frequent (14/18, p = 0.04). Comparative analysis of the sperm parameters showed that in the ejaculates of the infected patients sperm motility as well as the number of morphologically normal cells were significantly reduced compared with the healthy men. The quantification of the viral DNA revealed that in 31% of the male ejaculates the viral load was high: > 3 Ig10/100000 cells. Conclusion. The detection of HHV and HR HPV in the ejaculate is associated with male infertility. Quantification of the viral DNA in the ejaculate is a useful indicator for monitoring viral infections in infertility and for decision to start therapy.

  16. Development of a semi-quantitative risk assessment model for evaluating environmental threat posed by the three first EU watch-list pharmaceuticals to urban wastewater treatment plants: An Irish case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahar, Alexandre; Tiedeken, Erin Jo; Clifford, Eoghan; Cummins, Enda; Rowan, Neil

    2017-12-15

    Contamination of receiving waters with pharmaceutical compounds is of pressing concern. This constitutes the first study to report on the development of a semi-quantitative risk assessment (RA) model for evaluating the environmental threat posed by three EU watch list pharmaceutical compounds namely, diclofenac, 17-beta-estradiol and 17-alpha-ethinylestradiol, to aquatic ecosystems using Irish data as a case study. This RA model adopts the Irish Environmental Protection Agency Source-Pathway-Receptor concept to define relevant parameters for calculating low, medium or high risk score for each agglomeration of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), which include catchment, treatments, operational and management factors. This RA model may potentially be used on a national scale to (i) identify WWTPs that pose a particular risk as regards releasing disproportionally high levels of these pharmaceutical compounds, and (ii) help identify priority locations for introducing or upgrading control measures (e.g. tertiary treatment, source reduction). To assess risks for these substances of emerging concern, the model was applied to 16 urban WWTPs located in different regions in Ireland that were scored for the three different compounds and ranked as low, medium or high risk. As a validation proxy, this case study used limited monitoring data recorded at some these plants receiving waters. It is envisaged that this semi-quantitative RA approach may aid other EU countries investigate and screen for potential risks where limited measured or predicted environmental pollutant concentrations and/or hydrological data are available. This model is semi-quantitative, as other factors such as influence of climate change and drug usage or prescription data will need to be considered in a future point for estimating and predicting risks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Quantitative Finance

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative finance is a field that has risen to prominence over the last few decades. It encompasses the complex models and calculations that value financial contracts, particularly those which reference events in the future, and apply probabilities to these events. While adding greatly to the flexibility of the market available to corporations and investors, it has also been blamed for worsening the impact of financial crises. But what exactly does quantitative finance encompass, and where did these ideas and models originate? We show that the mathematics behind finance and behind games of chance have tracked each other closely over the centuries and that many well-known physicists and mathematicians have contributed to the field.

  18. A qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk perception and treatment options as related to wildfires in the USDA FS Region 3 National Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingrid M. Martin; Wade E. Martin; Carol B. Raish

    2011-01-01

    As the incidence of devastating fires rises, managing the risk posed by these fires has become critical. This report provides important information to examine the ways that different groups or disaster subcultures develop the mentalities or perceived realities that affect their views and responses concerning risk and disaster preparedness. Fire risk beliefs and...

  19. Health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the source water and drinking water of China: Quantitative analysis based on published monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Xu-Xiang; Cheng, Shu-Pei

    2011-12-01

    A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in source water and drinking water of China was conducted using probabilistic techniques from a national perspective. The published monitoring data of PAHs were gathered and converted into BaP equivalent (BaP(eq)) concentrations. Based on the transformed data, comprehensive risk assessment was performed by considering different age groups and exposure pathways. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The risk analysis indicated that, the risk values for children and teens were lower than the accepted value (1.00E-05), indicating no significant carcinogenic risk. The probability of risk values above 1.00E-05 was 5.8% and 6.7% for adults and lifetime groups, respectively. Overall, carcinogenic risks of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China were mostly accepted. However, specific regions, such as Yellow river of Lanzhou reach and Qiantang river should be paid more attention. Notwithstanding the uncertainties inherent in the risk assessment, this study is the first attempt to provide information on carcinogenic risk of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China, and might be useful for potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Evaluation of sanitary impact of environmental pollution and quantitative evaluation of sanitary risks; Estimation de l'impact sanitaire d'une pollution environnementale et evaluation quantitative des risques sanitaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-09-15

    The calculation of a sanitary impact present a great interest at the decision level for the decision-makers and the whole of concerned actors. It constitutes a first step to organize a social debate around the risk acceptance, to analyze the feasibility of an inquiry or an epidemiological surveillance or to proportion an activity leading to pollutants emission in natural medium. Several conclusions are brought out: it is justified to estimate a sanitary impact from a sanitary risk excess, especially coming from animal tissue. It is conceivable to go beyond an estimation of the only individual risk and to calculate a number of cases in excess in the concerned population. The working group underlines that the characteristics of the situation are the determining factor to give the type of response to bring. The effective of the population is an important element and a situation has not to be underestimated because of the size at the pretext that the excess calculation leads to a number of cases inferior to one leading to believe that the impact is minor or negligible while the individual probability is high. The sanitary impact, expressed by the number of cancer cases in excess in an exposed population is quantified from the average value of excess of sanitary risk multiplied by the population effective, and expressed with a confidence interval. The sanitary impact can be expressed under the form of a percentage of the population present in the exposure area and goes past the comparison marks usually pointed up. This practice must be cheered. An analysis of uncertainties must be made as often as possible. (N.C.)

  1. Quantitative radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brase, J.M.; Martz, H.E.; Waltjen, K.E.; Hurd, R.L.; Wieting, M.G.

    1986-01-01

    Radiographic techniques have been used in nondestructive evaluation primarily to develop qualitative information (i.e., defect detection). This project applies and extends the techniques developed in medical x-ray imaging, particularly computed tomography (CT), to develop quantitative information (both spatial dimensions and material quantities) on the three-dimensional (3D) structure of solids. Accomplishments in FY 86 include (1) improvements in experimental equipment - an improved microfocus system that will give 20-μm resolution and has potential for increased imaging speed, and (2) development of a simple new technique for displaying 3D images so as to clearly show the structure of the object. Image reconstruction and data analysis for a series of synchrotron CT experiments conducted by LLNL's Chemistry Department has begun

  2. Quantitative lymphography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mostbeck, A.; Lofferer, O.; Kahn, P.; Partsch, H.; Koehn, H.; Bialonczyk, Ch.; Koenig, B.

    1984-01-01

    Labelled colloids and macromolecules are removed lymphatically. The uptake of tracer in the regional lymphnodes is a parameter of lymphatic flow. Due to great variations in patient shape - obesity, cachexia - and accompanying variations in counting efficiencies quantitative measurements with reasonable accuracy have not been reported to date. A new approach to regional absorption correction is based on the combination of transmission and emission scans for each patient. The transmission scan is used for calculation of an absorption correction matrix. Accurate superposition of the correction matrix and the emission scan is achieved by computing the centers of gravity of point sources and - in the case of aligning opposite views - by cross correlation of binary images. In phantom studies the recovery was high (98.3%) and the coefficient of variation of repeated measurement below 1%. In patient studies a standardized stress is a prerequisite for reliable and comparable results. Discrimination between normals (14.3 +- 4.2D%) and patients with lymphedema (2.05 +- 2.5D%) was highly significant using praefascial lymphography and sc injection. Clearence curve analysis of the activities at the injection site, however, gave no reliable data for this purpose. In normals, the uptake in lymphnodes after im injection is by one order of magnitude lower then the uptake after sc injection. The discrimination between normals and patients with postthromboic syndrome was significant. Lymphography after ic injection was in the normal range in 2/3 of the patients with lymphedema and is therefore of no diagnostic value. The difference in uptake after ic and sc injection demonstrated for the first time by our quantitative method provides new insights into the pathophysiology of lymphedema and needs further investigation. (Author)

  3. Performance of two quantitative PCR methods for microbial source tracking of human sewage and implications for microbial risk assessment in recreational waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Before new, rapid quantitative PCR (qPCR) methods for recreational water quality assessment and microbial source tracking (MST) can be useful in a regulatory context, an understanding of the ability of the method to detect a DNA target (marker) when the contaminant soure has been...

  4. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  5. Quantitative Thermochronology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Jean; van der Beek, Peter; Batt, Geoffrey

    2006-05-01

    Thermochronology, the study of the thermal history of rocks, enables us to quantify the nature and timing of tectonic processes. Quantitative Thermochronology is a robust review of isotopic ages, and presents a range of numerical modeling techniques to allow the physical implications of isotopic age data to be explored. The authors provide analytical, semi-analytical, and numerical solutions to the heat transfer equation in a range of tectonic settings and under varying boundary conditions. They then illustrate their modeling approach built around a large number of case studies. The benefits of different thermochronological techniques are also described. Computer programs on an accompanying website at www.cambridge.org/9780521830577 are introduced through the text and provide a means of solving the heat transport equation in the deforming Earth to predict the ages of rocks and compare them directly to geological and geochronological data. Several short tutorials, with hints and solutions, are also included. Numerous case studies help geologists to interpret age data and relate it to Earth processes Essential background material to aid understanding and using thermochronological data Provides a thorough treatise on numerical modeling of heat transport in the Earth's crust Supported by a website hosting relevant computer programs and colour slides of figures from the book for use in teaching

  6. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  7. The quantitative Morse theorem

    OpenAIRE

    Loi, Ta Le; Phien, Phan

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we give a proof of the quantitative Morse theorem stated by {Y. Yomdin} in \\cite{Y1}. The proof is based on the quantitative Sard theorem, the quantitative inverse function theorem and the quantitative Morse lemma.

  8. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy green vegetables consumed at salad bars, based on modeling supply chain logistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; Franz, E

    2010-10-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference between simulating supply chain logistics (MOD) and assuming fixed storage times (FIX) in microbial risk estimation for the supply chain of fresh-cut leafy green vegetables destined for working-canteen salad bars. The results of the FIX model were previously published (E. Franz, S. O. Tromp, H. Rijgersberg, and H. J. van der Fels-Klerx, J. Food Prot. 73:274-285, 2010). Pathogen growth was modeled using stochastic discrete-event simulation of the applied logistics concept. The public health effects were assessed by conducting an exposure assessment and risk characterization. The relative growths of Escherichia coli O157 (17%) and Salmonella enterica (15%) were identical in the MOD and FIX models. In contrast, the relative growth of Listeria monocytogenes was considerably higher in the MOD model (1,156%) than in the FIX model (194%). The probability of L. monocytogenes infection in The Netherlands was higher in the MOD model (5.18×10(-8)) than in the FIX model (1.23×10(-8)). The risk of listeriosis-induced fetal mortality in the perinatal population increased from 1.24×10(-4) (FIX) to 1.66×10(-4) (MOD). Modeling the probabilistic nature of supply chain logistics is of additional value for microbial risk assessments regarding psychrotrophic pathogens in food products for which time and temperature are the postharvest preventive measures in guaranteeing food safety.

  9. Beware of feedback effects among trust, risk and public opinion: Quantitative estimates of rational versus emotional influences on attitudes toward genetic modification

    OpenAIRE

    Kelley, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    Support for genetic modification in agriculture mainly stems from approval of food and agricultural goals. It is facilitated by trust in the judgment of scientific authorities and undermined by anxiety about the risks involved. But there are symptoms of danger: Any public opinion data that show significant correlations between perceptions of fact (risk, trust etc.) and background characteristics (age, sex, religion, politics) or goals (environmental, medical, economic) typically reflect emoti...

  10. Quantitative assessment of possible human health risk associated with consumption of arsenic contaminated groundwater and wheat grains from Ropar Wetand and its environs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sakshi; Kaur, Jagdeep; Nagpal, Avinash Kaur; Kaur, Inderpreet

    2016-09-01

    Arsenic (As) is a carcinogenic metalloid that enters food chain through food and water and poses health risk to living beings. It is important to assess the As status in the environment and risks associated with it. Hence, a risk assessment study was conducted across Ropar wetland, Punjab, India and its environs in pre-monsoon season of 2013, to estimate the risk posed to adults and children via daily consumption of As contaminated groundwater and wheat grains. Arsenic concentrations determined in groundwater, soil and wheat grain samples using atomic absorption spectrometer ranged from 2.90 to 10.56 μg L(-1), 0.06 to 0.12 mg kg(-1) and 0.03 to 0.21 mg kg(-1), respectively. Arsenic in wheat grains showed significant negative correlation with phosphate content in soil indicating a competitive uptake of arsenate and phosphate ions by plants. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis suggested that both natural and anthropogenic factors contribute to variation in As content and other variables studied in soil and groundwater samples. Total cancer risk and hazard index were higher than the USEPA safety limits of 1.00 × 10(-6) and 1, respectively, for both adults and children indicating a high risk of cancer and other health disorders. Consumption of As contaminated wheat grains was found to pose higher risk of cancer and non-cancer health disorders as compared to intake of As contaminated groundwater by both adults and children. Moreover, children were found to be more prone to cancer and other heath disorders due to As exposure via wheat grains and groundwater as compared to adults.

  11. Quantitative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in selected categories of deli meats: impact of lactate and diacetate on listeriosis cases and deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Abani K; Ivanek, Renata; Gröhn, Yrjö T; Geornaras, Ifigenia; Sofos, John N; Wiedmann, Martin

    2009-05-01

    Foodborne disease associated with consumption of ready-to-eat foods contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes represents a considerable pubic health concern. In a risk assessment published in 2003, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Food Safety and Inspection Service estimated that about 90% of human listeriosis cases in the United States are caused by consumption of contaminated deli meats. In this risk assessment, all deli meats were grouped into one of 23 categories of ready-to-eat foods, and only the postretail growth of L. monocytogenes was considered. To provide an improved risk assessment for L. monocytogenes in deli meats, we developed a revised risk assessment that (i) models risk for three subcategories of deli meats (i.e., ham, turkey, and roast beef) and (ii) models L. monocytogenes contamination and growth from production to consumption while considering subcategory-specific growth kinetics parameters (i.e., lag phase and exponential growth rate). This model also was used to assess how reformulation of the chosen deli meat subcategories with L. monocytogenes growth inhibitors (i.e., lactate and diacetate) would impact the number of human listeriosis cases. Use of product-specific growth parameters demonstrated how certain deli meat categories differ in the relative risk of causing listeriosis; products that support more rapid growth and have reduced lag phases (e.g., turkey) represent a higher risk. Although reformulation of deli meats with growth inhibitors was estimated to reduce by about 2.5- to 7.8-fold the number of human listeriosis cases linked to a given deli meat subcategory and thus would reduce the overall risk of human listeriosis, even with reformulation deli meats would still cause a considerable number of human listeriosis cases. A combination of strategies is thus needed to provide continued reduction of these cases. Risk assessment models such as that described here will be critical for evaluation of different control

  12. Contribution to the unified formalization of functional and organizational knowledge of an industrial system for a quantitative risks assessment and an estimation of barrier impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leger, A.

    2009-01-01

    Since the industrial revolution, human being develops industrial systems to meet his production needs. But the operation of such facilities involves risks for the users. As a result the risk analysis has expanded during these last decades. Indeed, if in the Seventies, the studies were focused on the technological failures, several major accidents have underlined the importance of human and organisational factors in their occurrence, and have changed this initial way of thinking. So that in the Eighties, different methods allowing an identification of these factors have emerged. These studies, implying different fields of expertise, were so far independently built and applied. This fact leads to sector-based analyses and prevents from having an overall view of the studied situation. But, recently, some methodologies propose to (partially) integrate these different methods to study risks in a global approach. This lack of integration constitutes nowadays a scientific and industrial issue for the owners of critical systems. Thus, our contribution concerns the development of a methodology enabling the risk analyses of socio-technical systems in operation. This kind of analysis aims to probabilistically estimate risks for helping the decision-making. In that way, we propose an approach that enables to formalise, integrate, characterise and represent the different knowledge of the system. Our model allows an identification of the whole of the causes that lead to the occurrence of a critical event, by considering the technical data of the system and the data related to human operators and organisational features. (author)

  13. Comparative QRA (Quantitative Risk Analysis) of natural gas distribution pipelines in urban areas; Analise comparativa dos riscos da operacao de linhas de gas natural em areas urbanas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Luiz Fernando S. de [Energy Solutions South America (Brazil); Cardoso, Cassia de O.; Storch, Rafael [Det Norske Veritas (DNV) (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The natural gas pipeline network grows around the world, but its operation inherently imposes a risk to the people living next to pipelines. Due to this, it is necessary to conduct a risk analysis during the environmental licensing in Brazil. Despite the risk analysis methodology is well established, some points of its application for the distribution pipelines are still under discussion. This paper presents a methodology that examines the influences of major projects and operating parameters on the risk calculation of a distribution pipeline accident in urban areas as well as the possible accident scenarios assessment complexity. The impact of some scenarios has been evaluated using a Computational Fluid Dynamics tool. The results indicate that, under certain conditions, the risks from the pipeline operation under operating pressures of 20 bar may be acceptable in location class 3 or even in class 4. These results play a very important role if management decisions on the growth of the distribution of natural gas network in densely populated areas as well as in the improvement of laws to control the activity of distribution of natural gas. (author)

  14. A quantitative benefit-risk assessment approach to improve decision making in drug development: Application of a multicriteria decision analysis model in the development of combination therapy for overactive bladder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Greef-van der Sandt, I; Newgreen, D; Schaddelee, M; Dorrepaal, C; Martina, R; Ridder, A; van Maanen, R

    2016-04-01

    A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was developed and used to estimate the benefit-risk of solifenacin and mirabegron and their combination in the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB). The objectives were 1) to develop an MCDA tool to compare drug effects in OAB quantitatively, 2) to establish transparency in the evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of various dose combinations, and 3) to quantify the added value of combination use compared to monotherapies. The MCDA model was developed using efficacy, safety, and tolerability attributes and the results of a phase II factorial design combination study were evaluated. Combinations of solifenacin 5 mg and mirabegron 25 mg and mirabegron 50 (5+25 and 5+50) scored the highest clinical utility and supported combination therapy development of solifenacin and mirabegron for phase III clinical development at these dose regimens. This case study underlines the benefit of using a quantitative approach in clinical drug development programs. © 2015 The American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  15. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  16. Quantitative risk assessment for the introduction of African swine fever virus into the European Union by legal import of live pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mur, L; Martínez-López, B; Martínez-Avilés, M; Costard, S; Wieland, B; Pfeiffer, D U; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

    2012-04-01

    The recent incursion and spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in the Russian Federation and Caucasus region, close to European Union (EU) borders, have increased the concerns regarding the probability of ASFV introduction into the EU. There are many potential routes of ASFV entry into EU, but here we specifically aimed to assess the probability of ASFV introduction by legal trade of pigs, which historically has been one of the most important ways of exotic diseases introduction into the EU. A stochastic model was used to estimate the monthly probability of ASFV introduction for each country of the EU. Results of this model suggest an annual probability for ASFV introduction in the whole EU by this way of 5.22*10(-3) , which approximately corresponds with one outbreak in 192years. The risk of ASFV introduction via live pigs was highest in Poland (69%), particularly during the months of November and December. As expected, Russian Federation is the country that most contributes to this risk, representing 68% of the overall annual risk. Methods and results presented here may be useful for informing risk-based surveillance and control programmes and, ultimately, for prevention and control of potential ASFV incursions into the EU. © 2011 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  17. Using the negative exponential distribution to quantitatively review the evidence on how rapidly the excess risk of ischaemic heart disease declines following quitting smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Peter N; Fry, John S; Hamling, Jan S

    2012-10-01

    No previous review has formally modelled the decline in IHD risk following quitting smoking. From PubMed searches and other sources we identified 15 prospective and eight case-control studies that compared IHD risk in current smokers, never smokers, and quitters by time period of quit, some studies providing separate blocks of results by sex, age or amount smoked. For each of 41 independent blocks, we estimated, using the negative exponential model, the time, H, when the excess risk reduced to half that caused by smoking. Goodness-of-fit to the model was adequate for 35 blocks, others showing a non-monotonic pattern of decline following quitting, with a variable pattern of misfit. After omitting one block with a current smoker RR 1.0, the combined H estimate was 4.40 (95% CI 3.26-5.95) years. There was considerable heterogeneity, H being 10years for 12. H increased (p<0.001) with mean age at study start, but not clearly with other factors. Sensitivity analyses allowing for reverse causation, or varying assumed midpoint times for the final open-ended quitting period little affected goodness-of-fit of the combined estimate. The US Surgeon-General's view that excess risk approximately halves after a year's abstinence seems over-optimistic. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. How rapidly does the excess risk of lung cancer decline following quitting smoking? A quantitative review using the negative exponential model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fry, John S; Lee, Peter N; Forey, Barbara A; Coombs, Katharine J

    2013-10-01

    The excess lung cancer risk from smoking declines with time quit, but the shape of the decline has never been precisely modelled, or meta-analyzed. From a database of studies of at least 100 cases, we extracted 106 blocks of RRs (from 85 studies) comparing current smokers, former smokers (by time quit) and never smokers. Corresponding pseudo-numbers of cases and controls (or at-risk) formed the data for fitting the negative exponential model. We estimated the half-life (H, time in years when the excess risk becomes half that for a continuing smoker) for each block, investigated model fit, and studied heterogeneity in H. We also conducted sensitivity analyses allowing for reverse causation, either ignoring short-term quitters (S1) or considering them smokers (S2). Model fit was poor ignoring reverse causation, but much improved for both sensitivity analyses. Estimates of H were similar for all three analyses. For the best-fitting analysis (S1), H was 9.93 (95% CI 9.31-10.60), but varied by sex (females 7.92, males 10.71), and age (<50years 6.98, 70+years 12.99). Given that reverse causation is taken account of, the model adequately describes the decline in excess risk. However, estimates of H may be biased by factors including misclassification of smoking status. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Quantitative farm-to-fork risk assessment model for norovirus and hepatitis A virus in European leafy green vegetable and berry fruit supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwknegt, Martijn; Verhaelen, Katharina; Rzeżutka, Artur; Kozyra, Iwona; Maunula, Leena; von Bonsdorff, Carl-Henrik; Vantarakis, Apostolos; Kokkinos, Petros; Petrovic, Tamas; Lazic, Sava; Pavlik, Ivo; Vasickova, Petra; Willems, Kris A; Havelaar, Arie H; Rutjes, Saskia A; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

    2015-04-02

    Fresh produce that is contaminated with viruses may lead to infection and viral gastroenteritis or hepatitis when consumed raw. It is thus important to reduce virus numbers on these foods. Prevention of virus contamination in fresh produce production and processing may be more effective than treatment, as sufficient virus removal or inactivation by post-harvest treatment requires high doses that may adversely affect food quality. To date knowledge of the contribution of various potential contamination routes is lacking. A risk assessment model was developed for human norovirus, hepatitis A virus and human adenovirus in raspberry and salad vegetable supply chains to quantify contributions of potential contamination sources to the contamination of produce at retail. These models were used to estimate public health risks. Model parameterization was based on monitoring data from European supply chains and literature data. No human pathogenic viruses were found in the soft fruit supply chains; human adenovirus (hAdV) was detected, which was additionally monitored as an indicator of fecal pollution to assess the contribution of potential contamination points. Estimated risks per serving of lettuce based on the models were 3×10(-4) (6×10(-6)-5×10(-3)) for NoV infection and 3×10(-8) (7×10(-10)-3×10(-6)) for hepatitis A jaundice. The contribution to virus contamination of hand-contact was larger as compared with the contribution of irrigation, the conveyor belt or the water used for produce rinsing. In conclusion, viral contamination in the lettuce and soft fruit supply chains occurred and estimated health risks were generally low. Nevertheless, the 97.5% upper limit for the estimated NoV contamination of lettuce suggested that infection risks up to 50% per serving might occur. Our study suggests that attention to full compliance for hand hygiene will improve fresh produce safety related to virus risks most as compared to the other examined sources, given the

  20. Quantitative risk assessment of listeriosis-associated deaths due to Listeria monocytogenes contamination of deli meats originating from manufacture and retail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Abani K; Ivanek, Renata; Gröhn, Yrjö T; Bukowski, Robert; Geornaras, Ifigenia; Sofos, John N; Wiedmann, Martin

    2010-04-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the relative risk of listeriosis-associated deaths attributable to Listeria monocytogenes contamination in ham and turkey formulated without and with growth inhibitors (GIs). Two contamination scenarios were investigated: (i) prepackaged deli meats with contamination originating solely from manufacture at a frequency of 0.4% (based on reported data) and (ii) retail-sliced deli meats with contamination originating solely from retail at a frequency of 2.3% (based on reported data). Using a manufacture-to-consumption risk assessment with product-specific growth kinetic parameters (i.e., lag phase and exponential growth rate), reformulation with GIs was estimated to reduce human listeriosis deaths linked to ham and turkey by 2.8- and 9-fold, respectively, when contamination originated at manufacture and by 1.9- and 2.8-fold, respectively, for products contaminated at retail. Contamination originating at retail was estimated to account for 76 and 63% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated without GIs and for 83 and 84% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated with GIs. Sensitivity analyses indicated that storage temperature was the most important factor affecting the estimation of per annum relative risk. Scenario analyses suggested that reducing storage temperature in home refrigerators to consistently below 7 degrees C would greatly reduce the risk of human listeriosis deaths, whereas reducing storage time appeared to be less effective. Overall, our data indicate a critical need for further development and implementation of effective control strategies to reduce L. monocytogenes contamination at the retail level.

  1. A Quantitative Risk Assessment of the Skin Sensitization Induction Potential of the Kathon CG Preservative in Rinse-off and Leave-on Personal Care and Cosmetic Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towle, Kevin M; Drechsel, Derek A; Warshaw, Erin M; Fung, Ernest S; Novick, Rachel M; Paustenbach, Dennis J; Monnot, Andrew D

    2018-03-22

    Kathon CG is a commonly used cosmetic-grade preservative that contains active ingredients methylchloroisothiazolinone (MCI) and methylisothiazolinone (MI). The aim of the study was to perform a skin sensitization induction risk assessment of daily exposure to Kathon CG after use of various personal care and cosmetic products. We calculated an estimated daily consumer exposure level for rinse-off and leave-on products using the amount of product applied per application, number of applications per day, a retention factor, the MCI/MI concentration, and body surface area values. We assumed that the products contained the maximum recommended safe concentration of MCI/MI: 15 ppm in rinse-off products and 7.5 ppm in leave-on products. We compared estimated consumer exposure levels with the no expected sensitization induction level for MCI/MI and applied sensitization assessment factors to calculate product-specific margins of safety (MOSs). The MOSs for rinse-off products ranged from 5 to 63, whereas the MOSs for leave-on products ranged from 0.03 to 1.49. Overall, our results provide evidence that some leave-on products containing the maximum recommended safe concentration of Kathon CG may increase the risk of sensitization induction due to exposure to MCI/MI. In contrast, rinse-off products were not associated with a potential increased risk of skin sensitization induction.

  2. Quantitative assessment of the association between the angiotensin-converting enzyme gene insertion/deletion polymorphism and digestive system cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J; Yang, S; Guo, F H; Mao, X; Zhou, H; Dong, Y Q; Wang, Z M; Luo, F

    2015-11-13

    The angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) gene insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism has been reported to be associated with digestive system cancer; however, the results from previous studies have been conflicting. The present study aimed to investigate the association between the ACE I/D polymorphism and the risk of digestive system cancer using a meta-analysis of previously published studies. Databases were systematically searched to identify relevant studies published prior to December 2014. We estimated the pooled OR with its 95%CI to assess the association. The meta-analysis consisted of thirteen case-control studies that included 2557 patients and 4356 healthy controls. Meta-analysis results based on all the studies showed no significant association between the ACE I/D polymorphism and the risk of digestive system cancer (DD vs II: OR = 0.85, 95%CI = 0.59-1.24; DI vs II: OR = 0.94, 95%CI = 0.78-1.15; dominant model: OR = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.81- 1.15; recessive model: OR = 1.06, 95%CI = 0.76-1.48). Subgroup analyses by race and cancer type did not detect an association between the ACE I/D polymorphism and digestive system cancer risk. However, when the analyses were restricted to smaller studies (N digestive system cancer. Further large and well-designed studies are needed to confirm these conclusions.

  3. [Quantitative assessment of fungal risk in the case of construction works in healthcare establishments: Proposed indicators for the determination of the impact of management precautions on the risk of fungal infection].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangneux, J-P; Adjidé, C-C; Bernard, L; Botterel, F; Carel, A; Castel, O; Derouin, F; Hoarau, G; Labussière, H; Lafaurie, M; Millon, L; Pottecher, B; Thiebaut, A; Turco, M; Baron, R

    2012-03-01

    Construction works in healthcare establishments produce airborne fungal spores and considerably increase the risk of exposure of immunosuppressed patients. It is necessary to reinforce protective measures, or even to implement specific precautions, during this critical phase. The aim of these precautions is to protect both those areas, which are susceptible to dust, and patients at risk of a fungal infection particularly invasive aspergillosis. When construction works are planned in healthcare establishments, the first step consists in the characterisation of the environmental fungal risk and the second one in proposing risk management methods. It is then essential to establish impact indicators in order to evaluate the risk management precautions applied. The working group promoted by the French societies of medical mycology and hospital hygiene (SFMM & SF2H) details here both environmental and epidemiological impact indicators that can be used. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier SAS.

  4. Quantitative assessment of the influence of TP63 gene polymorphisms and lung cancer risk: evidence based on 93,751 subjects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several genome-wide association studies on lung cancer (LC have reported similar findings of a new susceptibility locus, 3q28. After that, a number of studies reported that the rs10937405, and rs4488809 polymorphism in chromosome 3q28 has been implicated in LC risk. However, the studies have yielded contradictory results. METHODS: PubMed, ISI web of science, EMBASE and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases were systematically searched to identify relevant studies. Data were abstracted independently by two reviewers. A meta-analysis was performed to examine the association between rs10937405, rs4488809 polymorphism at 3q28 and susceptibility to LC. Odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs were calculated. Heterogeneity and publication bias were also tested. RESULTS: A total of 9 studies including 35,961 LC cases and 57,790 controls were involved in this meta-analysis. An overall random-effects per-allele OR of1.19 (95% CI: 1.14-1.25; P<10(-5 and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.13-1.25; P<10(-5 was found for the rs10937405 and rs4488809 polymorphism respectively. Similar results were also observed using dominant or recessive genetic model. After stratified by ethnicity, significant associations were found among East Asians (per-allele OR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.17-1.27; P<10(-5; whereas no significant associations were found among Caucasians for rs10937405. In the sub-group analysis by sample size, significantly increased risks were found for these polymorphisms in all genetic models. When analyzed according to histological type, the effects of rs10937405, and rs4488809 at 3q28 on the risk of lung cancer were significant mostly for lung adenocarcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrated that rs10937405-G allele and rs4488809-G allele might be risk-conferring factors for the development of lung cancer, especially for East Asian populations.

  5. Quantitative Ultrasound Measurements at the Heel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daugschies, M.; Brixen, K.; Hermann, P.

    2015-01-01

    Calcaneal quantitative ultrasound can be used to predict osteoporotic fracture risk, but its ability to monitor therapy is unclear possibly because of its limited precision. We developed a quantitative ultrasound device (foot ultrasound scanner) that measures the speed of sound at the heel...... with the foot ultrasound scanner reduced precision errors by half (p quantitative ultrasound measurements is feasible. (E-mail: m.daugschies@rad.uni-kiel.de) (C) 2015 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology....

  6. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of information processing in first psychosis: latent class analyses in patients, at-risk subjects, and controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tricht, Mirjam J; Bour, Lo J; Koelman, Johannes H T M; Derks, Eske M; Braff, David L; de Wilde, Odette M; Boerée, Thijs; Linszen, Don H; de Haan, Lieuwe; Nieman, Dorien H

    2015-04-01

    We aimed to determine profiles of information processing deficits in the pathway to first psychosis. Sixty-one subjects at ultrahigh risk (UHR) for psychosis were assessed, of whom 18 converted to a first episode of psychosis (FEP) within the follow-up period. Additionally, 47 FEP and 30 control subjects were included. Using 10 neurophysiological parameters associated with information processing, latent class analyses yielded three classes at baseline. Class membership was related to group status. Within the UHR sample, two classes were found. Transition to psychosis was nominally associated with class membership. Neurophysiological profiles were unstable over time, but associations between specific neurophysiological components at baseline and follow-up were found. We conclude that certain constellations of neurophysiological variables aid in the differentiation between controls and patients in the prodrome and after first psychosis. Copyright © 2014 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  7. Acute Care of At-Risk Newborns (ACoRN: quantitative and qualitative educational evaluation of the program in a region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singhal Nalini

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Acute Care of at-Risk Newborns (ACoRN program was developed in Canada for trained health care providers for the identification and management of newborns who are at-risk and/or become unwell in the first few hours or days after birth. The ACoRN process follows an 8-step framework that enables the evaluation and management of babies irrespective of the experience or expertise of the caregiving individual or team. This study assesses the applicability of the program to Chinese pediatric practitioners. Methods Course content and educational materials were translated from English into Chinese by bilingual neonatal practitioners. Confidence and knowledge questionnaires were developed and reviewed for face and content validity by a team of ACoRN instructors. Bilingual Chinese instructors were trained at the tertiary perinatal centre in Hangzhou Zhejiang to deliver the course at 15 level II county hospitals. Participants completed pre- and post-course confidence and knowledge questionnaires and provided feedback through post-course focus groups. Results 216 physicians and nurses were trained. Confidence and knowledge relating to neonatal stabilization improved significantly following the courses. Participants rated course utility and function between 4.2 and 4.6/5 on all items. Pre/post measures of confidence were significantly correlated with post course knowledge. Focus group data supported the perceived value of the program and recommended course adjustments to include pre-course reading, and increased content related to simulation, communication skills, and management of respiratory illness and jaundice. Conclusions ACoRN, a Canadian educational program, appears to be well received by Chinese health care providers and results in improved knowledge and confidence. International program adaptation for use by health care professionals requires structured and systematic evaluation to ensure that the program meets the needs of

  8. Paediatric HUS Cases Related to the Consumption of Raw Milk Sold by Vending Machines in Italy: Quantitative Risk Assessment Based on Escherichia coli O157 Official Controls over 7 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, F; Bonilauri, P; Piva, S; Scavia, G; Amatiste, S; Bianchi, D M; Losio, M N; Bilei, S; Cascone, G; Comin, D; Daminelli, P; Decastelli, L; Merialdi, G; Mioni, R; Peli, A; Petruzzelli, A; Tonucci, F; Liuzzo, G; Serraino, A

    2017-11-01

    A quantitative risk assessment (RA) was developed to estimate haemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) cases in paediatric population associated with the consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. The historical national evolution of raw milk consumption phenomenon since 2008, when consumer interest started to grow, and after 7 years of marketing adjustment, is outlined. Exposure assessment was based on the official Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC) microbiological records of raw milk samples from vending machines monitored by the regional Veterinary Authorities from 2008 to 2014, microbial growth during storage, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, consumption preference and age of consumers. The differential risk considered milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst time-temperature field handling conditions detected. In case of boiling milk before consumption, we assumed that the risk of HUS is fixed at zero. The model estimates clearly show that the public health significance of HUS cases due to raw milk STEC contamination depends on the current variability surrounding the risk profile of the food and the consumer behaviour has more impact than milk storage scenario. The estimated HUS cases predicted by our model are roughly in line with the effective STEC O157-associated HUS cases notified in Italy only when the proportion of consumers not boiling milk before consumption is assumed to be 1%. Raw milk consumption remains a source of E. coli O157:H7 for humans, but its overall relevance is likely to have subsided and significant caution should be exerted for temporal, geographical and consumers behaviour analysis. Health education programmes and regulatory actions are required to educate people, primarily children, on other STEC sources. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  9. Quantitative assessment of the risk of microbial spoilage in foods. Prediction of non-stability at 55 °C caused by Geobacillus stearothermophilus in canned green beans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigaux, Clémence; André, Stéphane; Albert, Isabelle; Carlin, Frédéric

    2014-02-03

    Microbial spoilage of canned foods by thermophilic and highly heat-resistant spore-forming bacteria, such as Geobacillus stearothermophilus, is a persistent problem in the food industry. An incubation test at 55 °C for 7 days, then validation of biological stability, is used as an indicator of compliance with good manufacturing practices. We propose a microbial risk assessment model predicting the percentage of non-stability due to G. stearothermophilus in canned green beans manufactured by a French company. The model accounts for initial microbial contaminations of fresh unprocessed green beans with G. stearothermophilus, cross-contaminations in the processing chain, inactivation processes and probability of survival and growth. The sterilization process is modeled by an equivalent heating time depending on sterilization value F₀ and on G. stearothermophilus resistance parameter z(T). Following the recommendations of international organizations, second order Monte-Carlo simulations are used, separately propagating uncertainty and variability on parameters. As a result of the model, the mean predicted non-stability rate is of 0.5%, with a 95% uncertainty interval of [0.1%; 1.2%], which is highly similar to data communicated by the French industry. A sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices and some scenario tests underline the importance of cross-contamination at the blanching step, in addition to inactivation due to the sterilization process. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Quantitative Decision Support Requires Quantitative User Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2009-12-01

    for a given problem is presented. Based on climate science, meteorology, and the details of the question in hand, this approach identifies necessary (never sufficient) conditions required for the rational use of climate model output in quantitative decision support tools. Inasmuch as climate forecasting is a problem of extrapolation, there will always be harsh limits on our ability to establish where a model is fit for purpose, this does not, however, limit us from identifying model noise as such, and thereby avoiding some cases of the misapplication and over interpretation of model output. It is suggested that failure to clearly communicate the limits of today’s climate model in providing quantitative decision relevant climate information to today’s users of climate information, would risk the credibility of tomorrow’s climate science and science based policy more generally.

  11. Quantitative proteomics analysis using 2D-PAGE to investigate the effects of cigarette smoke and aerosol of a prototypic modified risk tobacco product on the lung proteome in C57BL/6 mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elamin, Ashraf; Titz, Bjoern; Dijon, Sophie; Merg, Celine; Geertz, Marcel; Schneider, Thomas; Martin, Florian; Schlage, Walter K; Frentzel, Stefan; Talamo, Fabio; Phillips, Blaine; Veljkovic, Emilija; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Vanscheeuwijck, Patrick; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

    2016-08-11

    Smoking is associated with several serious diseases, such as lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Within our systems toxicology framework, we are assessing whether potential modified risk tobacco products (MRTP) can reduce smoking-related health risks compared to conventional cigarettes. In this article, we evaluated to what extent 2D-PAGE/MALDI MS/MS (2D-PAGE) can complement the iTRAQ LC-MS/MS results from a previously reported mouse inhalation study, in which we assessed a prototypic MRTP (pMRTP). Selected differentially expressed proteins identified by both LC-MS/MS and 2D-PAGE approaches were further verified using reverse-phase protein microarrays. LC-MS/MS captured the effects of cigarette smoke (CS) on the lung proteome more comprehensively than 2D-PAGE. However, an integrated analysis of both proteomics data sets showed that 2D-PAGE data complement the LC-MS/MS results by supporting the overall trend of lower effects of pMRTP aerosol than CS on the lung proteome. Biological effects of CS exposure supported by both methods included increases in immune-related, surfactant metabolism, proteasome, and actin cytoskeleton protein clusters. Overall, while 2D-PAGE has its value, especially as a complementary method for the analysis of effects on intact proteins, LC-MS/MS approaches will likely be the method of choice for proteome analysis in systems toxicology investigations. Quantitative proteomics is anticipated to play a growing role within systems toxicology assessment frameworks in the future. To further understand how different proteomics technologies can contribute to toxicity assessment, we conducted a quantitative proteomics analysis using 2D-PAGE and isobaric tag-based LC-MS/MS approaches and compared the results produced from the 2 approaches. Using a prototypic modified risk tobacco product (pMRTP) as our test item, we show compared with cigarette smoke, how 2D-PAGE results can complement and support LC-MS/MS data, demonstrating

  12. Quantitative imaging methods in osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oei, Ling; Koromani, Fjorda; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Zillikens, M Carola; Oei, Edwin H G

    2016-12-01

    Osteoporosis is characterized by a decreased bone mass and quality resulting in an increased fracture risk. Quantitative imaging methods are critical in the diagnosis and follow-up of treatment effects in osteoporosis. Prior radiographic vertebral fractures and bone mineral density (BMD) as a quantitative parameter derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) are among the strongest known predictors of future osteoporotic fractures. Therefore, current clinical decision making relies heavily on accurate assessment of these imaging features. Further, novel quantitative techniques are being developed to appraise additional characteristics of osteoporosis including three-dimensional bone architecture with quantitative computed tomography (QCT). Dedicated high-resolution (HR) CT equipment is available to enhance image quality. At the other end of the spectrum, by utilizing post-processing techniques such as the trabecular bone score (TBS) information on three-dimensional architecture can be derived from DXA images. Further developments in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) seem promising to not only capture bone micro-architecture but also characterize processes at the molecular level. This review provides an overview of various quantitative imaging techniques based on different radiological modalities utilized in clinical osteoporosis care and research.

  13. Quantitative investment analysis

    CERN Document Server

    DeFusco, Richard

    2007-01-01

    In the "Second Edition" of "Quantitative Investment Analysis," financial experts Richard DeFusco, Dennis McLeavey, Jerald Pinto, and David Runkle outline the tools and techniques needed to understand and apply quantitative methods to today's investment process.

  14. Rigour in quantitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claydon, Leica Sarah

    2015-07-22

    This article which forms part of the research series addresses scientific rigour in quantitative research. It explores the basis and use of quantitative research and the nature of scientific rigour. It examines how the reader may determine whether quantitative research results are accurate, the questions that should be asked to determine accuracy and the checklists that may be used in this process. Quantitative research has advantages in nursing, since it can provide numerical data to help answer questions encountered in everyday practice.

  15. Quantitation: clinical applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Britton, K.E.

    1982-01-01

    Single photon emission tomography may be used quantitatively if its limitations are recognized and quantitation is made in relation to some reference area on the image. Relative quantitation is discussed in outline in relation to the liver, brain and pituitary, thyroid, adrenals, and heart. (U.K.)

  16. Industrial risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1981-01-01

    A brief look is taken at the status of progress, or the lack of it, towards a quantitative approach to the estimation and assessment of risk for several technologies in the United States. The increase of interest in the consideration of comparative risks in decision-making is also discussed. Finally, a recently proposed trial approach to quantitative safety goals for light-water nuclear power reactors is summarized. The approach is divided into two major tasks: the predominantly social and political task of setting safety criteria, and the technical task of estimating the risks and deciding whether the safety criteria have been met. The safety criteria include the following: limits on hazard states within the reactor; limits on risk to the individual; limits on societal risk; a cost-effectiveness criterion as low as reasonably achievable; a small element of risk aversion. (author)

  17. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsui, Toshiyuki; Kasuga, Fumiko

    Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a progressive neurological disease of cattle affecting the central nervous system and was first diagnosed in the United Kingdom (UK) in 1986 (Wells et al., 1987). This disease is one of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) which includes Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans and scrapie in sheep. The causative agent of TSE is considered to be an abnormal form of prion protein. However, the details of its pathogenic mechanism have not been fully identified. Scrapie, which causes neurological symptoms in sheep and goats, has existed in the UK for 200 years (Hoinville, 1996) and spread across the rest of the world in the 1900s (Detwiler & Baylis, 2003). There has been no report so far that scrapie can be transmitted to humans. Initially, BSE was also considered as a disease affecting only animals. However, a variant type of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) was first reported in the UK, and exposure to a BSE agent was suspected (Collinge, Sidle, Meads, Ironside, & Hill, 1996). vCJD is clinically and pathologically different from the sporadic type of CJD, and age at clinical onset of vCJD is younger than sporadic type (Will et al., 1996). Since the UK government announced the possible association between BSE and vCJD in 1996, BSE has become a huge public health concern all over the world. Of particular concern about vCJD, the fatal disease in younger age, distorted consumer confidence in beef safety, and as a result reduced beef consumption has been seen in many BSE-affected countries.

  18. Quantitative analysis chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Wansuk; Lee, Choongyoung; Jun, Kwangsik; Hwang, Taeksung

    1995-02-01

    This book is about quantitative analysis chemistry. It is divided into ten chapters, which deal with the basic conception of material with the meaning of analysis chemistry and SI units, chemical equilibrium, basic preparation for quantitative analysis, introduction of volumetric analysis, acid-base titration of outline and experiment examples, chelate titration, oxidation-reduction titration with introduction, titration curve, and diazotization titration, precipitation titration, electrometric titration and quantitative analysis.

  19. Quantitative Algebraic Reasoning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mardare, Radu Iulian; Panangaden, Prakash; Plotkin, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    We develop a quantitative analogue of equational reasoning which we call quantitative algebra. We define an equality relation indexed by rationals: a =ε b which we think of as saying that “a is approximately equal to b up to an error of ε”. We have 4 interesting examples where we have a quantitative...... equational theory whose free algebras correspond to well known structures. In each case we have finitary and continuous versions. The four cases are: Hausdorff metrics from quantitive semilattices; pWasserstein metrics (hence also the Kantorovich metric) from barycentric algebras and also from pointed...

  20. Quantitative autoradiography of neurochemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rainbow, T.C.; Biegon, A.; Bleisch, W.V.

    1982-01-01

    Several new methods have been developed that apply quantitative autoradiography to neurochemistry. These methods are derived from the 2-deoxyglucose (2DG) technique of Sokoloff (1), which uses quantitative autoradiography to measure the rate of glucose utilization in brain structures. The new methods allow the measurement of the rate of cerbral protein synthesis and the levels of particular neurotransmitter receptors by quantitative autoradiography. As with the 2DG method, the new techniques can measure molecular levels in micron-sized brain structures; and can be used in conjunction with computerized systems of image processing. It is possible that many neurochemical measurements could be made by computerized analysis of quantitative autoradiograms

  1. Molecular sensitivity threshold of wet mount and an immunochromatographic assay evaluated by quantitative real-time PCR for diagnosis of Trichomonas vaginalis infection in a low-risk population of childbearing women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leli, Christian; Castronari, Roberto; Levorato, Lucia; Luciano, Eugenio; Pistoni, Eleonora; Perito, Stefano; Bozza, Silvia; Mencacci, Antonella

    2016-06-01

    Vaginal trichomoniasis is a sexually transmitted infection caused by Trichomonas vaginalis, a flagellated protozoan. Diagnosis of T. vaginalis infection is mainly performed by wet mount microscopy, with a sensitivity ranging from 38% to 82%, compared to culture, still considered the gold standard. Commercial immunochromatographic tests for monoclonal-antibody-based detection have been introduced as alternative methods for diagnosis of T. vaginalis infection and have been reported in some studies to be more sensitive than wet mount. Real-time PCR methods have been recently developed, with optimal sensitivity and specificity. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether there is a molecular sensitivity threshold for both wet mount and imunochromatographic assays. To this aim, a total of 1487 low-risk childbearing women (median age 32 years, interquartile range 27-37) were included in the study, and underwent vaginal swab for T. vaginalis detection by means of a quantitative real-time PCR assay, wet mount and an immunochromatographic test. Upon comparing the results, prevalence values observed were 1.3% for real-time PCR, 0.5% for microscopic examination, and 0.8% for the immunochromatographic test. Compared to real-time PCR, wet mount sensitivity was 40% (95% confidence interval 19.1% to 63.9%) and specificity was 100% (95% CI 99.7% to 100%). The sensitivity and specificity of the immunochromatographic assay were 57.9% (95% CI 33.5% to 79.8%) and 99.9% (95% CI 99.6% to 100%), respectively. Evaluation of the wet mount results and those of immunochromatographic assay detection in relation to the number of T. vaginalis DNA copies detected in vaginal samples showed that the lower identification threshold for both wet mount (chi-square 6.1; P = 0.016) and the immunochromatographic assay (chi-square 10.7; P = 0.002) was ≥100 copies of T. vaginalis DNA/5 mcl of eluted DNA.

  2. Credit Institutions Management Evaluation using Quantitative Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Dardac

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Credit institutions supervising mission by state authorities is mostly assimilated with systemic risk prevention. In present, the mission is orientated on analyzing the risk profile of the credit institutions, the mechanism and existing systems as management tools providing to bank rules the proper instruments to avoid and control specific bank risks. Rating systems are sophisticated measurement instruments which are capable to assure the above objectives, such as success in banking risk management. The management quality is one of the most important elements from the set of variables used in the quoting process in credit operations. Evaluation of this quality is – generally speaking – fundamented on quantitative appreciations which can induce subjectivism and heterogeneity in quotation. The problem can be solved by using, complementary, quantitative technics such us DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis.

  3. Quantitative film radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devine, G.; Dobie, D.; Fugina, J.; Hernandez, J.; Logan, C.; Mohr, P.; Moss, R.; Schumacher, B.; Updike, E.; Weirup, D.

    1991-01-01

    We have developed a system of quantitative radiography in order to produce quantitative images displaying homogeneity of parts. The materials that we characterize are synthetic composites and may contain important subtle density variations not discernible by examining a raw film x-radiograph. In order to quantitatively interpret film radiographs, it is necessary to digitize, interpret, and display the images. Our integrated system of quantitative radiography displays accurate, high-resolution pseudo-color images in units of density. We characterize approximately 10,000 parts per year in hundreds of different configurations and compositions with this system. This report discusses: the method; film processor monitoring and control; verifying film and processor performance; and correction of scatter effects

  4. Critical Race Quantitative Intersections: A "testimonio" Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covarrubias, Alejandro; Nava, Pedro E.; Lara, Argelia; Burciaga, Rebeca; Vélez, Verónica N.; Solorzano, Daniel G.

    2018-01-01

    The educational pipeline has become a commonly referenced depiction of educational outcomes for racialized groups across the country. While visually impactful, an overreliance on decontextualized quantitative data often leads to majoritarian interpretations. Without sociohistorical contexts, these interpretations run the risk of perpetuating…

  5. Quantitative penetration testing with item response theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieters, W.; Arnold, F.; Stoelinga, M.I.A.

    2013-01-01

    Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Therefore, penetration testing has thus far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management,

  6. Quantitative Penetration Testing with Item Response Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, Florian; Pieters, Wolter; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2014-01-01

    Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Thus, penetration testing has so far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management, including

  7. Quantitative penetration testing with item response theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, Florian; Pieters, Wolter; Stoelinga, Mariëlle

    2013-01-01

    Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Thus, penetration testing has so far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management, including

  8. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  9. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  10. Quantitative secondary electron detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Jyoti; Joy, David C.; Nayak, Subuhadarshi

    2018-05-08

    Quantitative Secondary Electron Detection (QSED) using the array of solid state devices (SSD) based electron-counters enable critical dimension metrology measurements in materials such as semiconductors, nanomaterials, and biological samples (FIG. 3). Methods and devices effect a quantitative detection of secondary electrons with the array of solid state detectors comprising a number of solid state detectors. An array senses the number of secondary electrons with a plurality of solid state detectors, counting the number of secondary electrons with a time to digital converter circuit in counter mode.

  11. [Methods of quantitative proteomics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopylov, A T; Zgoda, V G

    2007-01-01

    In modern science proteomic analysis is inseparable from other fields of systemic biology. Possessing huge resources quantitative proteomics operates colossal information on molecular mechanisms of life. Advances in proteomics help researchers to solve complex problems of cell signaling, posttranslational modification, structure and functional homology of proteins, molecular diagnostics etc. More than 40 various methods have been developed in proteomics for quantitative analysis of proteins. Although each method is unique and has certain advantages and disadvantages all these use various isotope labels (tags). In this review we will consider the most popular and effective methods employing both chemical modifications of proteins and also metabolic and enzymatic methods of isotope labeling.

  12. Quantitative genetics of disease traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray, N R; Visscher, P M

    2015-04-01

    John James authored two key papers on the theory of risk to relatives for binary disease traits and the relationship between parameters on the observed binary scale and an unobserved scale of liability (James Annals of Human Genetics, 1971; 35: 47; Reich, James and Morris Annals of Human Genetics, 1972; 36: 163). These two papers are John James' most cited papers (198 and 328 citations, November 2014). They have been influential in human genetics and have recently gained renewed popularity because of their relevance to the estimation of quantitative genetics parameters for disease traits using SNP data. In this review, we summarize the two early papers and put them into context. We show recent extensions of the theory for ascertained case-control data and review recent applications in human genetics. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  13. Extending Quantitative Easing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallett, Andrew Hughes; Fiedler, Salomon; Kooths, Stefan

    The notes in this compilation address the pros and cons associated with the extension of ECB quantitative easing programme of asset purchases. The notes have been requested by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs as an input for the February 2017 session of the Monetary Dialogue....

  14. Quantitative Moessbauer analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, R.L.

    1978-01-01

    The quantitative analysis of Moessbauer data, as in the measurement of Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ concentration, has not been possible because of the different mean square velocities (x 2 ) of Moessbauer nuclei at chemically different sites. A method is now described which, based on Moessbauer data at several temperatures, permits the comparison of absorption areas at (x 2 )=0. (Auth.)

  15. Critical Quantitative Inquiry in Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stage, Frances K.; Wells, Ryan S.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter briefly traces the development of the concept of critical quantitative inquiry, provides an expanded conceptualization of the tasks of critical quantitative research, offers theoretical explanation and justification for critical research using quantitative methods, and previews the work of quantitative criticalists presented in this…

  16. Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, J; Lee, K; Walsh, D; Kim, S W; Sleeman, J M; Lee, H

    2018-02-01

    Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts' opinions. To examine the experts' perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and climate

  17. Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jusun; Lee, Kyunglee; Walsh, Daniel P.; Kim, SangWha; Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Lee, Hang

    2018-01-01

    Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts’ opinions. To examine the experts’ perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and

  18. Quantitative skeletal scintiscanning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haushofer, R.

    1982-01-01

    330 patients were examined by skeletal scintiscanning with sup(99m)Tc pyrophosphate and sup(99m)methylene diphosphonate in the years between 1977 and 1979. Course control examinations were carried out in 12 patients. The collective of patients presented with primary skeletal tumours, metastases, inflammatory and degenerative skeletal diseases. Bone scintiscanning combined with the ''region of interest'' technique was found to be an objective and reproducible technique for quantitative measurement of skeletal radioactivity concentrations. The validity of nuclear skeletal examinations can thus be enhanced as far as diagnosis, course control, and differential diagnosis are concerned. Quantitative skeletal scintiscanning by means of the ''region of interest'' technique has opened up a new era in skeletal diagnosis by nuclear methods. (orig./MG) [de

  19. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  20. Quantitative FDG in depression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chua, P.; O`Keefe, G.J.; Egan, G.F.; Berlangieri, S.U.; Tochon-Danguy, H.J.; Mckay, W.J.; Morris, P.L.P.; Burrows, G.D. [Austin Hospital, Melbourne, VIC (Australia). Dept of Psychiatry and Centre for PET

    1998-03-01

    Full text: Studies of regional cerebral glucose metabolism (rCMRGlu) using positron emission tomography (PET) in patients with affective disorders have consistently demonstrated reduced metabolism in the frontal regions. Different quantitative and semi-quantitative rCMRGlu regions of interest (ROI) comparisons, e.g. absolute metabolic rates, ratios of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) to ipsilateral hemisphere cortex, have been reported. These studies suffered from the use of a standard brain atlas to define ROls, whereas in this case study, the individual``s magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan was registered with the PET scan to enable accurate neuroanatomical ROI definition for the subject. The patient is a 36-year-old female with a six-week history of major depression (HAM-D = 34, MMSE = 28). A quantitative FDG PET study and an MRI scan were performed. Six MRI-guided ROls (DLPFC, PFC, whole hemisphere) were defined. The average rCMRGlu in the DLPFC (left = 28.8 + 5.8 mol/100g/min; right = 25.6 7.0 mol/100g/min) were slightly reduced compared to the ipsilateral hemispherical rate (left = 30.4 6.8 mol/100g/min; right = 29.5 7.2 mol/100g/min). The ratios of DLPFC to ipsilateral hemispheric rate were close to unity (left = 0.95 0.29; right 0.87 0.32). The right to left DLPFC ratio did not show any significant asymmetry (0.91 0.30). These results do not correlate with earlier published results reporting decreased left DLPFC rates compared to right DLPFC, although our results will need to be replicated with a group of depressed patients. Registration of PET and MRI studies is necessary in ROI-based quantitative FDG PET studies to allow for the normal anatomical variation among individuals, and thus is essential for accurate comparison of rCMRGlu between individuals.

  1. Quantitative FDG in depression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chua, P.; O'Keefe, G.J.; Egan, G.F.; Berlangieri, S.U.; Tochon-Danguy, H.J.; Mckay, W.J.; Morris, P.L.P.; Burrows, G.D.

    1998-01-01

    Full text: Studies of regional cerebral glucose metabolism (rCMRGlu) using positron emission tomography (PET) in patients with affective disorders have consistently demonstrated reduced metabolism in the frontal regions. Different quantitative and semi-quantitative rCMRGlu regions of interest (ROI) comparisons, e.g. absolute metabolic rates, ratios of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) to ipsilateral hemisphere cortex, have been reported. These studies suffered from the use of a standard brain atlas to define ROls, whereas in this case study, the individual''s magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan was registered with the PET scan to enable accurate neuroanatomical ROI definition for the subject. The patient is a 36-year-old female with a six-week history of major depression (HAM-D = 34, MMSE = 28). A quantitative FDG PET study and an MRI scan were performed. Six MRI-guided ROls (DLPFC, PFC, whole hemisphere) were defined. The average rCMRGlu in the DLPFC (left = 28.8 + 5.8 mol/100g/min; right = 25.6 7.0 mol/100g/min) were slightly reduced compared to the ipsilateral hemispherical rate (left = 30.4 6.8 mol/100g/min; right = 29.5 7.2 mol/100g/min). The ratios of DLPFC to ipsilateral hemispheric rate were close to unity (left = 0.95 0.29; right 0.87 0.32). The right to left DLPFC ratio did not show any significant asymmetry (0.91 0.30). These results do not correlate with earlier published results reporting decreased left DLPFC rates compared to right DLPFC, although our results will need to be replicated with a group of depressed patients. Registration of PET and MRI studies is necessary in ROI-based quantitative FDG PET studies to allow for the normal anatomical variation among individuals, and thus is essential for accurate comparison of rCMRGlu between individuals

  2. Quantitative traits and diversification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    FitzJohn, Richard G

    2010-12-01

    Quantitative traits have long been hypothesized to affect speciation and extinction rates. For example, smaller body size or increased specialization may be associated with increased rates of diversification. Here, I present a phylogenetic likelihood-based method (quantitative state speciation and extinction [QuaSSE]) that can be used to test such hypotheses using extant character distributions. This approach assumes that diversification follows a birth-death process where speciation and extinction rates may vary with one or more traits that evolve under a diffusion model. Speciation and extinction rates may be arbitrary functions of the character state, allowing much flexibility in testing models of trait-dependent diversification. I test the approach using simulated phylogenies and show that a known relationship between speciation and a quantitative character could be recovered in up to 80% of the cases on large trees (500 species). Consistent with other approaches, detecting shifts in diversification due to differences in extinction rates was harder than when due to differences in speciation rates. Finally, I demonstrate the application of QuaSSE to investigate the correlation between body size and diversification in primates, concluding that clade-specific differences in diversification may be more important than size-dependent diversification in shaping the patterns of diversity within this group.

  3. Applying adverse outcome pathways and species sensitivity-weighted distribution to predicted-no-effect concentration derivation and quantitative ecological risk assessment for bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol in aquatic environments: A case study on Tianjin City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ying; Na, Guangshui; Zong, Humin; Ma, Xindong; Yang, Xianhai; Mu, Jingli; Wang, Lijun; Lin, Zhongsheng; Zhang, Zhifeng; Wang, Juying; Zhao, Jinsong

    2018-02-01

    Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) are a novel concept that effectively considers the toxic modes of action and guides the ecological risk assessment of chemicals. To better use toxicity data including biochemical or molecular responses and mechanistic data, we further developed a species sensitivity-weighted distribution (SSWD) method for bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol. Their aquatic predicted-no-effect concentrations (PNECs) were derived using the log-normal statistical extrapolation method. We calculated aquatic PNECs of bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol with values of 4.01 and 0.721 µg/L, respectively. The ecological risk of each chemical in different aquatic environments near Tianjin, China, a coastal municipality along the Bohai Sea, was characterized by hazard quotient and probabilistic risk quotient assessment techniques. Hazard quotients of 7.02 and 5.99 at 2 municipal sewage sites using all of the endpoints were observed for 4-nonylphenol, which indicated high ecological risks posed by 4-nonylphenol to aquatic organisms, especially endocrine-disrupting effects. Moreover, a high ecological risk of 4-nonylphenol was indicated based on the probabilistic risk quotient method. The present results show that combining the SSWD method and the AOP concept could better protect aquatic organisms from adverse effects such as endocrine disruption and could decrease uncertainty in ecological risk assessment. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:551-562. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  5. Quantitative tools for addressing hospital readmissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lagoe Ronald J

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Increased interest in health care cost containment is focusing attention on reduction of hospital readmissions. Major payors have already developed financial penalties for providers that generate excess readmissions. This subject has benefitted from the development of resources such as the Potentially Preventable Readmissions software. This process has encouraged hospitals to renew efforts to improve these outcomes. The aim of this study was to describe quantitative tools such as definitions, risk estimation, and tracking of patients for reducing hospital readmissions. Findings This study employed the Potentially Preventable Readmissions software to develop quantitative tools for addressing hospital readmissions. These tools included two definitions of readmissions that support identification and management of patients. They also included analytical approaches for estimation of the risk of readmission for individual patients by age, discharge status of the initial admission, and severity of illness. They also included patient specific spreadsheets for tracking of target populations and for evaluation of the impact of interventions. Conclusions The study demonstrated that quantitative tools including the development of definitions of readmissions, estimation of the risk of readmission, and patient specific spreadsheets could contribute to the improvement of patient outcomes in hospitals.

  6. Quantitative ion implantation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gries, W.H.

    1976-06-01

    This is a report of the study of the implantation of heavy ions at medium keV-energies into electrically conducting mono-elemental solids, at ion doses too small to cause significant loss of the implanted ions by resputtering. The study has been undertaken to investigate the possibility of accurate portioning of matter in submicrogram quantities, with some specific applications in mind. The problem is extensively investigated both on a theoretical level and in practice. A mathematical model is developed for calculating the loss of implanted ions by resputtering as a function of the implanted ion dose and the sputtering yield. Numerical data are produced therefrom which permit a good order-of-magnitude estimate of the loss for any ion/solid combination in which the ions are heavier than the solid atoms, and for any ion energy from 10 to 300 keV. The implanted ion dose is measured by integration of the ion beam current, and equipment and techniques are described which make possible the accurate integration of an ion current in an electromagnetic isotope separator. The methods are applied to two sample cases, one being a stable isotope, the other a radioisotope. In both cases independent methods are used to show that the implantation is indeed quantitative, as predicted. At the same time the sample cases are used to demonstrate two possible applications for quantitative ion implantation, viz. firstly for the manufacture of calibration standards for instrumental micromethods of elemental trace analysis in metals, and secondly for the determination of the half-lives of long-lived radioisotopes by a specific activity method. It is concluded that the present study has advanced quantitative ion implantation to the state where it can be successfully applied to the solution of problems in other fields

  7. Quantitative cardiac computed tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thelen, M.; Dueber, C.; Wolff, P.; Erbel, R.; Hoffmann, T.

    1985-06-01

    The scope and limitations of quantitative cardiac CT have been evaluated in a series of experimental and clinical studies. The left ventricular muscle mass was estimated by computed tomography in 19 dogs (using volumetric methods, measurements in two axes and planes and reference volume). There was good correlation with anatomical findings. The enddiastolic volume of the left ventricle was estimated in 22 patients with cardiomyopathies; using angiography as a reference, CT led to systematic under-estimation. It is also shown that ECG-triggered magnetic resonance tomography results in improved visualisation and may be expected to improve measurements of cardiac morphology.

  8. F# for quantitative finance

    CERN Document Server

    Astborg, Johan

    2013-01-01

    To develop your confidence in F#, this tutorial will first introduce you to simpler tasks such as curve fitting. You will then advance to more complex tasks such as implementing algorithms for trading semi-automation in a practical scenario-based format.If you are a data analyst or a practitioner in quantitative finance, economics, or mathematics and wish to learn how to use F# as a functional programming language, this book is for you. You should have a basic conceptual understanding of financial concepts and models. Elementary knowledge of the .NET framework would also be helpful.

  9. Quantitative performance monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heller, A.S.

    1987-01-01

    In the recently published update of NUREG/CR 3883, it was shown that Japanese plants of size and design similar to those in the US have significantly fewer trips in a given year of operation. One way to reduce such imbalance is the efficient use of available plant data. Since plant data are recorded and monitored continuously for management feedback and timely resolution of problems, this data should be actively used to increase the efficiency of operations and, ultimately, for a reduction of plant trips in power plants. A great deal of information is lost, however, if the analytical tools available for the data evaluation are misapplied or not adopted at all. This paper deals with a program developed to use quantitative techniques to monitor personnel performance in an operating power plant. Visual comparisons of ongoing performance with predetermined quantitative performance goals are made. A continuous feedback is provided to management for early detection of adverse trends and timely resolution of problems. Ultimately, costs are reduced through effective resource management and timely decision making

  10. Quantitative clinical radiobiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentzen, S.M.

    1993-01-01

    Based on a series of recent papers, a status is given of our current ability to quantify the radiobiology of human tumors and normal tissues. Progress has been made in the methods of analysis. This includes the introduction of 'direct' (maximum likelihood) analysis, incorporation of latent-time in the analyses, and statistical approaches to allow for the many factors of importance in predicting tumor-control probability of normal-tissue complications. Quantitative clinical radiobiology of normal tissues is reviewed with emphasis on fractionation sensitivity, repair kinetics, regeneration, latency, and the steepness of dose-response curves. In addition, combined modality treatment, functional endpoints, and the search for a correlation between the occurrence of different endpoints in the same individual are discussed. For tumors, quantitative analyses of fractionation sensitivity, repair kinetics, reoxygenation, and regeneration are reviewed. Other factors influencing local control are: Tumor volume, histopathologic differentiation and hemoglobin concentration. Also, the steepness of the dose-response curve for tumors is discussed. Radiobiological strategies for improving radiotherapy are discussed with emphasis on non-standard fractionation and individualization of treatment schedules. (orig.)

  11. Automatic quantitative metallography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barcelos, E.J.B.V.; Ambrozio Filho, F.; Cunha, R.C.

    1976-01-01

    The quantitative determination of metallographic parameters is analysed through the description of Micro-Videomat automatic image analysis system and volumetric percentage of perlite in nodular cast irons, porosity and average grain size in high-density sintered pellets of UO 2 , and grain size of ferritic steel. Techniques adopted are described and results obtained are compared with the corresponding ones by the direct counting process: counting of systematic points (grid) to measure volume and intersections method, by utilizing a circunference of known radius for the average grain size. The adopted technique for nodular cast iron resulted from the small difference of optical reflectivity of graphite and perlite. Porosity evaluation of sintered UO 2 pellets is also analyzed [pt

  12. QUANTITATIVE INDICATORS OF THE SECURITIZATION OF ASSETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis VOSTRICOV

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Securitization is instrumental in return on capital increment through the withdrawal from the balance oflending activities being accompanied by off-balance incomes flow from fees, which are less capital-intensive. Thepurpose of this paper is to analyze the quantitative indicators characterizing the securitization of assets. For draftingthis article, the method of analysis, synthesis method, logic and dialectic method, normative method, the study ofstatistical sampling and time series of expert evaluations (Standard and Poor’s, personal observations, andmonographic studies have been used. The main difference between the securitization of assets from traditional waysof financing is related to the achievement of a plenty of secondary goals in attracting financial resources, whichcan play a significant role in choosing to favour the securitization of assets or other types of financing. Inparticular, it gives a possibility to write off the assets from the balance sheet along with the relevant obligationsunder the securities, to expand the range of potential investors accompanied by the reducing of credit risk, interestrate and liquidity risk, as well as to improve the management quality of assets, liabilities and risks. All of thesesecondary effects are achieved by the isolation of selected assets from the total credit risk of the enterprise, raisingits funds, which forms the pivotal actuality and significance of asset securitization. The article containsdemonstrations of quantitative and qualitative indicators characterizing the securitization of assets.

  13. Risk Management Practices: The Ghanaian Firms' Perspective ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using a quantitative approach the findings of the study are that Ghanaian firms understand risk and risk management. Additionally, operational, liquidity and credit risk are the most dominant risks experienced while risk identification and selection jointly determine risk management practices in Ghana. Based on the findings ...

  14. Rational quantitative safety goals: a summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unwin, S.D.; Hayns, M.R.

    1984-08-01

    We introduce the notion of a Rational Quantitative Safety Goal. Such a goal reflects the imprecision and vagueness inherent in any reasonable notion of adequate safety and permits such vagueness to be incorporated into the formal regulatory decision-making process. A quantitative goal of the form, the parameter x, characterizing the safety level of the nuclear plant, shall not exceed the value x 0 , for example, is of a non-rational nature in that it invokes a strict binary logic in which the parameter space underlying x is cut sharply into two portions: that containing those values of x that comply with the goal and that containing those that do not. Here, we utilize an alternative form of logic which, in accordance with any intuitively reasonable notion of safety, permits a smooth transition of a safety determining parameter between the adequately safe and inadequately safe domains. Fuzzy set theory provides a suitable mathematical basis for the formulation of rational quantitative safety goals. The decision-making process proposed here is compatible with current risk assessment techniques and produces results in a transparent and useful format. Our methodology is illustrated with reference to the NUS Corporation risk assessment of the Limerick Generating Station

  15. Quantitative assessment of breast density from mammograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamal, N.; Ng, K.H.

    2004-01-01

    Full text: It is known that breast density is increasingly used as a risk factor for breast cancer. This study was undertaken to develop and validate a semi-automated computer technique for the quantitative assessment of breast density from digitised mammograms. A computer technique had been developed using MATLAB (Version 6.1) based GUI applications. This semi-automated image analysis tool consists of gradient correction, segmentation of breast region from background, segmentation of fibroglandular and adipose region within the breast area and calculation of breast density. The density is defined as the percentage of fibroglandular tissue area divided by the total breast area in the mammogram. This technique was clinically validated with 122 normal mammograms; these were subjectively evaluated and classified according to the five parenchyma patterns of the Tabar's scheme (Class I- V) by a consultant radiologist. There was a statistical significant correlation between the computer technique and subjective classification (r 2 = 0.84, p<0.05). 71.3% of subjective classification was correctly classified using the computer technique. We had developed a computer technique for the quantitative assessment of breast density and validated its accuracy for computerized classification based on Tabar's scheme. This quantitative tool is useful for the evaluation of a large dataset of mammograms to predict breast cancer risk based on density. Furthermore it has the potential to provide an early marker for success or failure in chemoprevention studies such as hormonal replacement therapy. Copyright (2004) Australasian College of Physical Scientists and Engineers in Medicine

  16. Quantitative safety goals for the regulatory process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joksimovic, V.; O'Donnell, L.F.

    1981-01-01

    The paper offers a brief summary of the current regulatory background in the USA, emphasizing nuclear, related to the establishment of quantitative safety goals as a way to respond to the key issue of 'how safe is safe enough'. General Atomic has taken a leading role in advocating the use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques in the regulatory process. This has led to understanding of the importance of quantitative safety goals. The approach developed by GA is discussed in the paper. It is centred around definition of quantitative safety regions. The regions were termed: design basis, safety margin or design capability and safety research. The design basis region is bounded by the frequency of 10 -4 /reactor-year and consequences of no identifiable public injury. 10 -4 /reactor-year is associated with the total projected lifetime of a commercial US nuclear power programme. Events which have a 50% chance of happening are included in the design basis region. In the safety margin region, which extends below the design basis region, protection is provided against some events whose probability of not happening during the expected course of the US nuclear power programme is within the range of 50 to 90%. Setting the lower mean frequency to this region of 10 -5 /reactor-year is equivalent to offering 90% assurance that an accident of given severity will not happen. Rare events with a mean frequency below 10 -5 can be predicted to occur. However, accidents predicted to have a probability of less than 10 -6 are 99% certain not to happen at all, and are thus not anticipated to affect public health and safety. The area between 10 -5 and 10 -6 defines the frequency portion of the safety research region. Safety goals associated with individual risk to a maximum-exposed member of public, general societal risk and property risk are proposed in the paper

  17. Is the shape of the decline in risk following quitting smoking similar for squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the lung? A quantitative review using the negative exponential model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fry, John S; Lee, Peter N; Forey, Barbara A; Coombs, Katharine J

    2015-06-01

    One possible contributor to the reported rise in the ratio of adenocarcinoma to squamous cell carcinoma of the lung may be differences in the pattern of decline in risk following quitting for the two lung cancer types. Earlier, using data from 85 studies comparing overall lung cancer risks in current smokers, quitters (by time quit) and never smokers, we fitted the negative exponential model, deriving an estimate of 9.93years for the half-life - the time when the excess risk for quitters compared to never smokers becomes half that for continuing smokers. Here we applied the same techniques to data from 16 studies providing RRs specific for lung cancer type. From the 13 studies where the half-life was estimable for each type, we derived estimates of 11.68 (95% CI 10.22-13.34) for squamous cell carcinoma and 14.45 (11.92-17.52) for adenocarcinoma. The ratio of the half-lives was estimated as 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.46, p<0.001). The slower decline in quitters for adenocarcinoma, evident in subgroups by sex, age and other factors, may be one of the factors contributing to the reported rise in the ratio of adenocarcinoma to squamous cell carcinoma. Others include changes in the diagnosis and classification of lung cancer. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk analysis: assessing uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aven, T. (Terje)

    2008-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 How to describe risk quantitatively . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Description of risk in a financial context . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Description...

  19. Quantitive DNA Fiber Mapping

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Chun-Mei; Wang, Mei; Greulich-Bode, Karin M.; Weier, Jingly F.; Weier, Heinz-Ulli G.

    2008-01-28

    Several hybridization-based methods used to delineate single copy or repeated DNA sequences in larger genomic intervals take advantage of the increased resolution and sensitivity of free chromatin, i.e., chromatin released from interphase cell nuclei. Quantitative DNA fiber mapping (QDFM) differs from the majority of these methods in that it applies FISH to purified, clonal DNA molecules which have been bound with at least one end to a solid substrate. The DNA molecules are then stretched by the action of a receding meniscus at the water-air interface resulting in DNA molecules stretched homogeneously to about 2.3 kb/{micro}m. When non-isotopically, multicolor-labeled probes are hybridized to these stretched DNA fibers, their respective binding sites are visualized in the fluorescence microscope, their relative distance can be measured and converted into kilobase pairs (kb). The QDFM technique has found useful applications ranging from the detection and delineation of deletions or overlap between linked clones to the construction of high-resolution physical maps to studies of stalled DNA replication and transcription.

  20. Credit Risk Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, David

    Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...... and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand...

  1. A quantitative assessment of the BSE risk associated with fly ash and slag from the incineration of meat-and-bone meal in a gas-fired power plant in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry; Hostrup-Pedersen, J.

    2005-01-01

    and slag are incorporated into the cement or concrete. Our goal was to assess with a Monte Carlo simulation model the bovine spongiform, encephalopathy (BSE) risk to cattle and humans posed by the ash and slag. The results will be used by decision makers to evaluate the need for disposal of the fly ash......It has been recommended that meat-and-bone meal (MBM) be incinerated at 850 degrees C for at least 2 s and the ashes and slag disposed of in controlled landfills, to dispose of animal-derived proteins. Most commonly, the MBM is incinerated in cement works or coal-fired power plants and the ashes...

  2. Quantitative sexing (Q-Sexing) and relative quantitative sexing (RQ ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    samer

    Key words: Polymerase chain reaction (PCR), quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), quantitative sexing, Siberian tiger. INTRODUCTION. Animal molecular sexing .... 43:3-12. Ellegren H (1996). First gene on the avian W chromosome (CHD) provides a tag for universal sexing of non-ratite birds. Proc.

  3. Overestimation of the Legionella spp. load in environmental samples by quantitative real-time PCR: pretreatment with propidium monoazide as a tool for the assessment of an association between Legionella concentration and sanitary risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditommaso, Savina; Ricciardi, Elisa; Giacomuzzi, Monica; Arauco Rivera, Susan R; Ceccarelli, Adriano; Zotti, Carla M

    2014-12-01

    Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) offers rapid, sensitive, and specific detection of Legionella in environmental water samples. In this study, qPCR and qPCR combined with propidium monoazide (PMA-qPCR) were both applied to hot-water system samples and compared to traditional culture techniques. In addition, we evaluated the ability of PMA-qPCR to monitor the efficacy of different disinfection strategies. Comparison between the quantification obtained by culture and by qPCR or PMA-qPCR on environmental water samples confirms that the concentration of Legionella estimated by GU/L is generally higher than that estimated in CFU/L. Our results on 57 hot-water-system samples collected from 3 different sites show that: i) qPCR results were on average 178-fold higher than the culture results (Δ log10=2.25), ii) PMA-qPCR results were on average 27-fold higher than the culture results (Δ log10=1.43), iii) propidium monoazide-induced signal reduction in qPCR were nearly 10-fold (Δ log10=0.95), and that iv) different degrees of correlations between the 3 methods might be explained by different matrix properties, but also by different disinfection methods affecting cultivability of Legionella. In our study, we calculated the logarithmic differences between the results obtained by PMA-qPCR and those obtained by culture, and we suggested an algorithm for the interpretation of PMA-qPCR results for the routine monitoring of healthcare water systems using a commercial qPCR system (iQ-check real-time PCR kit; Bio-Rad, Marnes-la-Coquette, France). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Quantitative Assessment of the IT Agile Transformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orłowski Cezary

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present the quantitative perspective of the agile transformation processes in IT organisations. The phenomenon of agile transformation becomes a complex challenge for an IT organisation since it has not been analysed in detail so far. There is no research on the readiness of IT organisations to realise agile transformation processes. Such processes also prove to have uncontrolled character. Therefore, to minimise the risk of failure referring to the realisation of transformation processes, it is necessary to monitor them. It is also necessary to identify and analyse such processes to ensure their continuous character.

  5. Quantitative Nuclear Medicine. Chapter 17

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ouyang, J.; El Fakhri, G. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston (United States)

    2014-12-15

    Planar imaging is still used in clinical practice although tomographic imaging (single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and positron emission tomography (PET)) is becoming more established. In this chapter, quantitative methods for both imaging techniques are presented. Planar imaging is limited to single photon. For both SPECT and PET, the focus is on the quantitative methods that can be applied to reconstructed images.

  6. Mastering R for quantitative finance

    CERN Document Server

    Berlinger, Edina; Badics, Milán; Banai, Ádám; Daróczi, Gergely; Dömötör, Barbara; Gabler, Gergely; Havran, Dániel; Juhász, Péter; Margitai, István; Márkus, Balázs; Medvegyev, Péter; Molnár, Julia; Szucs, Balázs Árpád; Tuza, Ágnes; Vadász, Tamás; Váradi, Kata; Vidovics-Dancs, Ágnes

    2015-01-01

    This book is intended for those who want to learn how to use R's capabilities to build models in quantitative finance at a more advanced level. If you wish to perfectly take up the rhythm of the chapters, you need to be at an intermediate level in quantitative finance and you also need to have a reasonable knowledge of R.

  7. Quantitative analysis of receptor imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu Zhanli; Wang Rongfu

    2004-01-01

    Model-based methods for quantitative analysis of receptor imaging, including kinetic, graphical and equilibrium methods, are introduced in detail. Some technical problem facing quantitative analysis of receptor imaging, such as the correction for in vivo metabolism of the tracer and the radioactivity contribution from blood volume within ROI, and the estimation of the nondisplaceable ligand concentration, is also reviewed briefly

  8. Quantitative Analysis of Renogram

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Keun Chul [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1969-03-15

    value are useful for the differentiation of various renal diseases, however, qualitative analysis of the renogram with one or two parameters is not accurate. 3) In bilateral non-functioning kidney groups, a positive correlation between anemia and nitrogen retention was observed, although the quantitative assessment of the degree of non-functioning was impossible.

  9. Quantitative Analysis of Renogram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Keun Chul

    1969-01-01

    are useful for the differentiation of various renal diseases, however, qualitative analysis of the renogram with one or two parameters is not accurate. 3) In bilateral non-functioning kidney groups, a positive correlation between anemia and nitrogen retention was observed, although the quantitative assessment of the degree of non-functioning was impossible.

  10. 岩体滑坡冲击能计算及受灾体易损性定量评估%IMPACT ENERGY CALCULATION FOR ROCK SLOPE AND QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY FOR ELEMENT AT RISK

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴越; 刘东升; 李明军

    2011-01-01

    In the processes of landslide mass sliding and impacting on element at risk, the internal collapse of landslide mass will dissipate part of kinetic energy. But in practice, this part of energy is not taken usually into account. The discrete element method(DEM) is adopted to get impact force-time curves; and the impact energy conversion equation is also deduced based on impulse law and energy conservation law. With the analysis of the energy dissipation principle in the sliding and impacting processes of a practical rock slope, a comparison is made between the calculation method which takes both internal and external energy dissipations into account and the method which only takes external energy dissipation into account. The result shows that there is a significant difference between the two methods; and the internal energy dissipation can not be ignored. Moreover, the influence factors of impact energy and vulnerability for element at risk are both analyzed. The analysis result shows that impact energy is most sensitive to internal friction angle of landslide debris; second sensitive to distance between element at risk and landslide mass, gap length between joint segments, density of landslide mass and width of impact surface; last sensitive to the cohesion of landslide mass. In addition, the impact direction of landslide debris can simulataneously effect both impact energy and anti-impact energy.%滑体下滑及对受灾体冲击过程中,由于滑体内部的崩解碰撞将会耗散部分动能,而工程中通常采用简化的方法计算滑体冲击能,没有考虑内部耗能的影响.采用离散元法模拟得到滑体对受灾体的冲击力-时间曲线,根据冲量定律和能量守恒定律换算得到滑体冲击能.以实际工程为例,详细分析滑体下滑过程与冲击受灾体过程中的能耗规律.结果表明:同时考虑下滑和冲击过程中滑体内外部耗能的计算方法与只考虑滑体外部摩擦耗能的计算方法相比,

  11. Approaches to acceptable risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whipple, C.

    1997-01-01

    Several alternative approaches to address the question open-quotes How safe is safe enough?close quotes are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made

  12. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  13. Regulatory cost-risk study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1983-04-01

    This study is intended to provide some quantitative perspective by selecting certain examples of criteria for which estimates of risks and costs can be obtained, and the balance of the various risks, (i.e., internal versus external risks), can be put into perspective. 35 refs., 39 tabs. (JDB)

  14. Regulatory cost-risk study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-04-01

    This study is intended to provide some quantitative perspective by selecting certain examples of criteria for which estimates of risks and costs can be obtained, and the balance of the various risks, (i.e., internal versus external risks), can be put into perspective. 35 refs., 39 tabs

  15. Mixing quantitative with qualitative methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morrison, Ann; Viller, Stephen; Heck, Tamara

    2017-01-01

    with or are considering, researching, or working with both quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods (in academia or industry), join us in this workshop. In particular, we look at adding quantitative to qualitative methods to build a whole picture of user experience. We see a need to discuss both quantitative...... and qualitative research because there is often a perceived lack of understanding of the rigor involved in each. The workshop will result in a White Paper on the latest developments in this field, within Australia and comparative with international work. We anticipate sharing submissions and workshop outcomes...

  16. Understanding quantitative research: part 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoe, Juanita; Hoare, Zoë

    This article, which is the first in a two-part series, provides an introduction to understanding quantitative research, basic statistics and terminology used in research articles. Critical appraisal of research articles is essential to ensure that nurses remain up to date with evidence-based practice to provide consistent and high-quality nursing care. This article focuses on developing critical appraisal skills and understanding the use and implications of different quantitative approaches to research. Part two of this article will focus on explaining common statistical terms and the presentation of statistical data in quantitative research.

  17. Quantitative EPR A Practitioners Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Eaton, Gareth R; Barr, David P; Weber, Ralph T

    2010-01-01

    This is the first comprehensive yet practical guide for people who perform quantitative EPR measurements. No existing book provides this level of practical guidance to ensure the successful use of EPR. There is a growing need in both industrial and academic research to provide meaningful and accurate quantitative EPR results. This text discusses the various sample, instrument and software related aspects required for EPR quantitation. Specific topics include: choosing a reference standard, resonator considerations (Q, B1, Bm), power saturation characteristics, sample positioning, and finally, putting all the factors together to obtain an accurate spin concentration of a sample.

  18. Prognostic Impact of the Combination of Recurrence Score and Quantitative Estrogen Receptor Expression (ESR1) on Predicting Late Distant Recurrence Risk in Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer After 5 Years of Tamoxifen: Results From NRG Oncology/National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-28 and B-14.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolmark, Norman; Mamounas, Eleftherios P; Baehner, Frederick L; Butler, Steven M; Tang, Gong; Jamshidian, Farid; Sing, Amy P; Shak, Steven; Paik, Soonmyung

    2016-07-10

    We determined the utility of the 21-Gene Recurrence Score (RS) in predicting late (> 5 years) distant recurrence (LDR) in stage I and II breast cancer within high and low-ESR1-expressing groups. RS was assessed in chemotherapy/tamoxifen-treated, estrogen receptor (ER) -positive, node-positive National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-28 patients and tamoxifen-treated, ER-positive, node-negative B-14 patients. The association of the RS with risk of distant recurrence (DR) 0 to 5 years and those at risk > 5 years was assessed. An ESR1 expression cut point was optimized in B-28 and tested in B-14. Median follow-up was 11.2 years for B-28 and 13.9 years for B-14. Of 1,065 B-28 patients, 36% had low ( 5 to 10 years (log-rank P = .02) regardless of ESR1 expression. An ESR1 expression cut point of 9.1 CT was identified in B-28. It was validated in B-14 patients for whom the RS was associated with DR in years 5 to 15: 6.8% (95% CI, 4.4% to 10.6%) versus 11.2% (95% CI, 6.2% to 19.9%) versus 16.4% (95% CI, 10.2% to 25.7%) for RS < 18, RS 18 to 30, and RS ≥ 31, respectively (log-rank P = .01). For LDR, RS is strongly prognostic in patients with higher quantitative ESR1. Risk of LDR is relatively low for patients with low RS. These results suggest the value of extended tamoxifen therapy merits evaluation in patients with intermediate and high RS with higher ESR1 expression at initial diagnosis. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  19. Prognostic Impact of the Combination of Recurrence Score and Quantitative Estrogen Receptor Expression (ESR1) on Predicting Late Distant Recurrence Risk in Estrogen Receptor–Positive Breast Cancer After 5 Years of Tamoxifen: Results From NRG Oncology/National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-28 and B-14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolmark, Norman; Baehner, Frederick L.; Butler, Steven M.; Tang, Gong; Jamshidian, Farid; Sing, Amy P.; Shak, Steven; Paik, Soonmyung

    2016-01-01

    Purpose We determined the utility of the 21-Gene Recurrence Score (RS) in predicting late (> 5 years) distant recurrence (LDR) in stage I and II breast cancer within high and low-ESR1–expressing groups. Patients and Methods RS was assessed in chemotherapy/tamoxifen-treated, estrogen receptor (ER) –positive, node-positive National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-28 patients and tamoxifen-treated, ER-positive, node-negative B-14 patients. The association of the RS with risk of distant recurrence (DR) 0 to 5 years and those at risk > 5 years was assessed. An ESR1 expression cut point was optimized in B-28 and tested in B-14. Results Median follow-up was 11.2 years for B-28 and 13.9 years for B-14. Of 1,065 B-28 patients, 36% had low ( 5 to 10 years (log-rank P = .02) regardless of ESR1 expression. An ESR1 expression cut point of 9.1 CT was identified in B-28. It was validated in B-14 patients for whom the RS was associated with DR in years 5 to 15: 6.8% (95% CI, 4.4% to 10.6%) versus 11.2% (95% CI, 6.2% to 19.9%) versus 16.4% (95% CI, 10.2% to 25.7%) for RS < 18, RS 18 to 30, and RS ≥ 31, respectively (log-rank P = .01). Conclusion For LDR, RS is strongly prognostic in patients with higher quantitative ESR1. Risk of LDR is relatively low for patients with low RS. These results suggest the value of extended tamoxifen therapy merits evaluation in patients with intermediate and high RS with higher ESR1 expression at initial diagnosis. PMID:27217450

  20. Human fecal source identification with real-time quantitative PCR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waterborne diseases represent a significant public health risk worldwide, and can originate from contact with water contaminated with human fecal material. We describe a real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) method that targets a Bacteroides dori human-associated genetic marker for...

  1. Quantitative penetration testing with item response theory (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, Florian; Pieters, Wolter; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2013-01-01

    Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Therefore, penetration testing has thus far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management,

  2. Appetite For Risk Of The Bank (Ii)

    OpenAIRE

    Manolescu, Gheorghe

    2011-01-01

    Representing the "amount" of risk that a bank is able and willing to accept in pursuit of its objectives, so as to balance the needs of all interested parties the risk appetite (propensity) is expressed in terms of both quantitative and qualitative, and covers all risks and not just financial risk, as understood in recent years. Risk appetite problems include issues such as the context and relationship of the risk appetite to the appetite risk aversion, fair and transparent declaration and co...

  3. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schull, W.J.; Texas Univ., Houston, TX

    1992-01-01

    Estimation of the risk of cancer following exposure to ionizing radiation remains largely empirical, and models used to adduce risk incorporate few, if any, of the advances in molecular biology of a past decade or so. These facts compromise the estimation risk where the epidemiological data are weakest, namely, at low doses and dose rates. Without a better understanding of the molecular and cellular events ionizing radiation initiates or promotes, it seems unlikely that this situation will improve. Nor will the situation improve without further attention to the identification and quantitative estimation of the effects of those host and environmental factors that enhance or attenuate risk. (author)

  4. Risks in our society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1985-01-01

    This chapter summarizes quantitative information on risks from a wide variety of sources and analyzes it in terms of life expectancy reduction (LER). The data indicate that the greatest common risk in terms of LER, next to remaining unmarried, is cigarette smoking. When all of the effects of energy production and use (e.g., burning coal, reactor accidents) are totalled, the resulting LER is only about 25 days. It is pointed out that the risks to the residents of the Harrisburg area from radiation caused by the Three Mile Island accident is hundreds of thousands of times smaller than their risk from being overweight

  5. Risk Control of Offshore Installations. A Framework for the Establishment of Risk Indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oeien, Knut

    2001-07-01

    Currently quantitative risk assessments are carried out to analyze the risk level of offshore installations and to evaluate whether or not the risk level is acceptable. By way of the quantitative risk analysis the risk status of a given installation is obtained. However, the risk status is obtained so infrequently that it is inadequate for risk control. It can be compared to economic control having the economic status presented about each fifth year, which is obviously inadequate. It is important to know the risk status because this may provide an early warning about the need for remedial actions. Without frequent information about the risk status, control of risk cannot be claimed. The main objective of this thesis has been the development of a framework for the establishment of risk indicators. These risk indicators provide a status of the risk level through measuring of changes in technical, operational and organizational factors important to risk, and is thus a means to control risk during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The framework consists of a technical methodology using the quantitative risk assessment as a basis, an organizational model, and an organizational quantification methodology. Technical risk indicators are established from the technical methodology covering the risk factors explicitly included in the quantitative risk assessment. Organizational risk indicators measure changes in the organizational risk factors included in the organizational model, but not included in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational model is an extension to the risk model in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational quantification methodology calculates the effect of the changes measured by the organizational risk indicators. The organizational model may also be applied as a qualitative tool for root cause analysis of incidents (process leaks). Other results are an intermediate-level expert judgment procedure applicable for

  6. Quantitative mass spectrometry: an overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Pawel L.

    2016-10-01

    Mass spectrometry (MS) is a mainstream chemical analysis technique in the twenty-first century. It has contributed to numerous discoveries in chemistry, physics and biochemistry. Hundreds of research laboratories scattered all over the world use MS every day to investigate fundamental phenomena on the molecular level. MS is also widely used by industry-especially in drug discovery, quality control and food safety protocols. In some cases, mass spectrometers are indispensable and irreplaceable by any other metrological tools. The uniqueness of MS is due to the fact that it enables direct identification of molecules based on the mass-to-charge ratios as well as fragmentation patterns. Thus, for several decades now, MS has been used in qualitative chemical analysis. To address the pressing need for quantitative molecular measurements, a number of laboratories focused on technological and methodological improvements that could render MS a fully quantitative metrological platform. In this theme issue, the experts working for some of those laboratories share their knowledge and enthusiasm about quantitative MS. I hope this theme issue will benefit readers, and foster fundamental and applied research based on quantitative MS measurements. This article is part of the themed issue 'Quantitative mass spectrometry'.

  7. Quantitative densitometry of neurotransmitter receptors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rainbow, T.C.; Bleisch, W.V.; Biegon, A.; McEwen, B.S.

    1982-01-01

    An autoradiographic procedure is described that allows the quantitative measurement of neurotransmitter receptors by optical density readings. Frozen brain sections are labeled in vitro with [ 3 H]ligands under conditions that maximize specific binding to neurotransmitter receptors. The labeled sections are then placed against the 3 H-sensitive LKB Ultrofilm to produce the autoradiograms. These autoradiograms resemble those produced by [ 14 C]deoxyglucose autoradiography and are suitable for quantitative analysis with a densitometer. Muscarinic cholinergic receptors in rat and zebra finch brain and 5-HT receptors in rat brain were visualized by this method. When the proper combination of ligand concentration and exposure time are used, the method provides quantitative information about the amount and affinity of neurotransmitter receptors in brain sections. This was established by comparisons of densitometric readings with parallel measurements made by scintillation counting of sections. (Auth.)

  8. Energy Education: The Quantitative Voice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfson, Richard

    2010-02-01

    A serious study of energy use and its consequences has to be quantitative. It makes little sense to push your favorite renewable energy source if it can't provide enough energy to make a dent in humankind's prodigious energy consumption. Conversely, it makes no sense to dismiss alternatives---solar in particular---that supply Earth with energy at some 10,000 times our human energy consumption rate. But being quantitative---especially with nonscience students or the general public---is a delicate business. This talk draws on the speaker's experience presenting energy issues to diverse audiences through single lectures, entire courses, and a textbook. The emphasis is on developing a quick, ``back-of-the-envelope'' approach to quantitative understanding of energy issues. )

  9. Precision of different quantitative ultrasound densitometers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pocock, N.A.; Harris, N.D.; Griffiths, M.R.

    1998-01-01

    Full text: Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) of the calcaneus, which measures Speed of Sound (SOS) and Broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), is predictive of the risk of osteoporotic fracture. However, the utility of QUS for predicting fracture risk or for monitoring treatment efficacy depends on its precision and reliability. Published results and manufacturers data vary significantly due to differences in statistical methodology. We have assessed the precision of the current model of the Lunar Achilles and the McCue Cuba QUS densitometers; the most commonly used QUS machines in Australia. Twenty seven subjects had duplicate QUS measurements performed on the same day on both machines. These data were used to calculate the within pair standard deviation (SD) the co-efficient of variation, CV and the standardised co efficient of variation (sCV) which is corrected for the dynamic range. In addition, the co-efficient of reliability (R) was calculated as an index of reliability which is independent of the population mean value, or the dynamic range of the measurements. R ranges between 0 (for no reliability) to 1(for a perfect reliability). The results indicate that the precision of QUS is dependent on the dynamic range and the instrument. Furthermore, they suggest that while QUS is a useful predictor of fracture risk, at present it has limited clinical value in monitoring short term age-related bone loss of 1-2% per year

  10. Quantitative nature of overexpression experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moriya, Hisao

    2015-01-01

    Overexpression experiments are sometimes considered as qualitative experiments designed to identify novel proteins and study their function. However, in order to draw conclusions regarding protein overexpression through association analyses using large-scale biological data sets, we need to recognize the quantitative nature of overexpression experiments. Here I discuss the quantitative features of two different types of overexpression experiment: absolute and relative. I also introduce the four primary mechanisms involved in growth defects caused by protein overexpression: resource overload, stoichiometric imbalance, promiscuous interactions, and pathway modulation associated with the degree of overexpression. PMID:26543202

  11. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  12. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  13. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  14. Application of probabilistic quantitative ecological risk assessment to radiological dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twining, J.; Ferris, J.; Copplestone, D.; Zinger, I.

    2004-01-01

    Probabilistic ERA is becoming more accepted and applied in evaluations of environmental impacts worldwide. In a previous paper we have shown that the process can be applied in practice to routine effluent releases from a nuclear facility. However, there are practical issues that need to be addressed prior to its regulatory application for criteria setting or for site-specific ERA. Among these issues are a) appropriate data selection for both exposure and dose-response input, because there is a need to carefully characterise and filter the available dose-response data for its ecological relevance, b) A coherent approach is required to the choice of exposure scenarios, and c) there are various questions associated with treatment of exposure to mixed nuclides. In this paper we will evaluate and discuss aspects of these issues, using an illustrative case study approach. (author)

  15. Recontamination in food processing : quantitative modelling for risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aantrekker, den E.

    2002-01-01

    Every year at least 1.5 to 6% of the Dutch population suffers from foodborne illnesses. This may result in symptoms like vomiting or diarrhoea but can in some cases also lead to death. Processes like pasteurisation or sterilisation reduce the number of pathogenic bacteria in food products.

  16. Students perceiving risk: a quantitative assessment on three South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    also a dense network of cultural norms and values linking alcohol, risky ... one institution in a small city, one in a medium sized city, and one in a large city. ..... hope and lack of alternative options, the idea is also relevant to the integration of the.

  17. ‘Omics’ technologies in quantitative microbial risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brul, S.; Basset, J.; Cook, P.; Kathariou, S.; McClure, P.; Jasti, P.R.; Betts, R.

    2012-01-01

    ‘Omics’ tools are being developed at an ever increasing pace. Collectively, genome sequencing, genome-wide transcriptional analysis (transcriptomics), proteomics, metabolomics, flux analysis (‘fluxomics’) and other applications are captured under the term omics. The data generated using these tools

  18. Risk and medical ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.

    1982-01-01

    Quantitative estimates of risk, and their comparison with quantitative estimates of benefit, contribute usefully to decision-making in many fields. In medicine, assessments of the probability of harm, and of the likelihood of benefit, resulting from many procedures are at present very limited. Moreover, the comparison of risk and of benefit is difficult to make in any quantitative way, whether for a procedure in general or, even more so, for its application in any particular patient. Yet it must be ethically insecure to propose or to use a procedure without some assessment, however approximate, of the hazards involved, and without some indication of whether those hazards will be clearly offset by the likelihood of benefit that should result from use of the procedure. (author)

  19. Risk assessment - a research program aimed at health risks from air pollution in the general environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindahl-Kiessling, K.; Ahlborg, U.; Bylin, G.; Ehrenberg, L.; Hemminki, K.; Lindell, B.; Nilsson, Robert; Bostroem, C.E.; Swarn, U.

    1991-01-01

    The paper presents a new research program for assessment of health risks caused by air pollutants. It is important to develop general methods for quantitative risk assessments and to improve the scientific base materials. (KAE)

  20. Risk management guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briscoe, G.J.

    1977-06-01

    Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

  1. 1st International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance

    CERN Document Server

    Garrido, José; Hernández-Hernández, Daniel; ICASQF

    2015-01-01

    Featuring contributions from industry and academia, this volume includes chapters covering a diverse range of theoretical and empirical aspects of actuarial science and quantitative finance, including portfolio management, derivative valuation, risk theory and the economics of insurance. Developed from the First International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance, held at the Universidad Nacional de Colombia in Bogotá in June 2014, this volume highlights different approaches to issues arising from industries in the Andean and Carribean regions. Contributions address topics such as Reverse mortgage schemes and urban dynamics, modeling spot price dynamics in the electricity market, and optimizing calibration and pricing with SABR models.

  2. 2nd International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance

    CERN Document Server

    Garrido, José; Jeanblanc, Monique

    2017-01-01

    Developed from the Second International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance, this volume showcases the latest progress in all theoretical and empirical aspects of actuarial science and quantitative finance. Held at the Universidad de Cartagena in Cartegena, Colombia in June 2016, the conference emphasized relations between industry and academia and provided a platform for practitioners to discuss problems arising from the financial and insurance industries in the Andean and Caribbean regions. Based on invited lectures as well as carefully selected papers, these proceedings address topics such as statistical techniques in finance and actuarial science, portfolio management, risk theory, derivative valuation and economics of insurance.

  3. Methodology for development of risk indicators for offshore platforms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oeien, K.; Sklet, S.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a generic methodology for development of risk indicators for petroleum installations and a specific set of risk indicators established for one offshore platform. The risk indicators should be used to control the risk during operation of platforms. The methodology is purely risk-based and the basis for development of risk indicators is the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). In order to identify high risk contributing factors, platform personnel are asked to assess whether and how much the risk influencing factors will change. A brief comparison of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for nuclear power plants and quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for petroleum platforms is also given. (au)

  4. Time-resolved quantitative phosphoproteomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Verano-Braga, Thiago; Schwämmle, Veit; Sylvester, Marc

    2012-01-01

    proteins involved in the Ang-(1-7) signaling, we performed a mass spectrometry-based time-resolved quantitative phosphoproteome study of human aortic endothelial cells (HAEC) treated with Ang-(1-7). We identified 1288 unique phosphosites on 699 different proteins with 99% certainty of correct peptide...

  5. Quantitative Characterisation of Surface Texture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Chiffre, Leonardo; Lonardo, P.M.; Trumpold, H.

    2000-01-01

    This paper reviews the different methods used to give a quantitative characterisation of surface texture. The paper contains a review of conventional 2D as well as 3D roughness parameters, with particular emphasis on recent international standards and developments. It presents new texture...

  6. GPC and quantitative phase imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palima, Darwin; Banas, Andrew Rafael; Villangca, Mark Jayson

    2016-01-01

    shaper followed by the potential of GPC for biomedical and multispectral applications where we experimentally demonstrate the active light shaping of a supercontinuum laser over most of the visible wavelength range. Finally, we discuss how GPC can be advantageously applied for Quantitative Phase Imaging...

  7. Compositional and Quantitative Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2010-01-01

    This paper gives a survey of a composition model checking methodology and its succesfull instantiation to the model checking of networks of finite-state, timed, hybrid and probabilistic systems with respect; to suitable quantitative versions of the modal mu-calculus [Koz82]. The method is based...

  8. La quantite en islandais modern

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnús Pétursson

    1978-12-01

    Full Text Available La réalisation phonétique de la quantité en syllabe accentuée dans la lecture de deux textes continus. Le problème de la quantité est un des problèmes les plus étudiés dans la phonologie de l'islandais moderne. Du point de vue phonologique il semble qu'on ne peut pas espérer apporter du nouveau, les possibilités théoriques ayant été pratiquement épuisées comme nous 1'avons rappelé dans notre étude récente (Pétursson 1978, pp. 76-78. Le