WorldWideScience

Sample records for quantitative risk assessmetn

  1. Quantitative Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-24

    program risk evaluation frameworks and criteria set out, in formal documentation, for proposal and contact execution evaluation as determined by the PMO ...phase until late December 2015. During this time there was turnover in the PMO . We decided that we needed to reaffirm the collaboration agreement...pertinent to developing RLI. We reviewed prior analyses of root causes of adverse program outcome. We identified Program Management Office ( PMO ) risk

  2. Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helms, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-02-10

    The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investments or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.

  3. Quantitative Risk - Phases 1 & 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-12

    quantitative risk characterization”, " Risk characterization of microbiological hazards in food ", Chapter 4, 2009 314...State University, July 9, 2013 213. Albert I, Grenier E, Denis JB, Rousseau J., “ Quantitative Risk Assessment from Farm to Fork and Beyond: a...MELHEM, G., “Conduct Effective Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Studies”, ioMosaic Corporation, 2006 233. Anderson, J., Brown, R., “ Risk

  4. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  5. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  6. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  7. Quantitative Risk - Phase 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-03

    Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for...OF PAGES 88 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT unclassified b. ABSTRACT unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev...Gerencia de Proyectos , 24-25 October 2003 261. Mehdizadeh, R., “Dynamic and multi-perspective risk management of construction projects using tailor

  8. Quantitative risk assessment of CO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koornneef, J.; Spruijt, M.; Molag, M.; Ramírez, A.; Turkenburg, W.; Faaij, A.

    2010-01-01

    A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO2 pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperat

  9. Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

    CERN Document Server

    Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling...

  10. Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Lynne P.

    2011-01-01

    Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

  11. Submarine Pipeline Routing Risk Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐慧; 于莉; 胡云昌; 王金英

    2004-01-01

    A new method for submarine pipeline routing risk quantitative analysis was provided, and the study was developed from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis.The characteristics of the potential risk of the submarine pipeline system were considered, and grey-mode identification theory was used. The study process was composed of three parts: establishing the indexes system of routing risk quantitative analysis, establishing the model of grey-mode identification for routing risk quantitative analysis, and establishing the standard of mode identification result. It is shown that this model can directly and concisely reflect the hazard degree of the routing through computing example, and prepares the routing selection for the future.

  12. A Note on Quantitative Definition of Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李力; 赵联文; 杨宁

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis has become more and more important in practical application, but there has not been a widely accepted frame work and model for the research. Motivated by factor analysis method and Kaplan-Garrick's quantitative definition of risk, a general risk model was established based on analyzing risk situations and employing information system and evidence theory, and Kaplan-Garrick's result was improved to introduce a frame word for analyzing and managing risk.

  13. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  14. A toolbox for rockfall Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agliardi, F.; Mavrouli, O.; Schubert, M.; Corominas, J.; Crosta, G. B.; Faber, M. H.; Frattini, P.; Narasimhan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Rockfall Quantitative Risk Analysis for mitigation design and implementation requires evaluating the probability of rockfall events, the probability and intensity of impacts on structures (elements at risk and countermeasures), their vulnerability, and the related expected costs for different scenarios. A sound theoretical framework has been developed during the last years both for spatially-distributed and local (i.e. single element at risk) analyses. Nevertheless, the practical application of existing methodologies remains challenging, due to difficulties in the collection of required data and to the lack of simple, dedicated analysis tools. In order to fill this gap, specific tools have been developed in the form of Excel spreadsheets, in the framework of Safeland EU project. These tools can be used by stakeholders, practitioners and other interested parties for the quantitative calculation of rock fall risk through its key components (probabilities, vulnerability, loss), using combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Three tools have been developed, namely: QuRAR (by UNIMIB), VulBlock (by UPC), and RiskNow-Falling Rocks (by ETH Zurich). QuRAR implements a spatially distributed, quantitative assessment methodology of rockfall risk for individual buildings or structures in a multi-building context (urban area). Risk is calculated in terms of expected annual cost, through the evaluation of rockfall event probability, propagation and impact probability (by 3D numerical modelling of rockfall trajectories), and empirical vulnerability for different risk protection scenarios. Vulblock allows a detailed, analytical calculation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame buildings to rockfalls and related fragility curves, both as functions of block velocity and the size. The calculated vulnerability can be integrated in other methodologies/procedures based on the risk equation, by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock

  15. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  16. Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under consideration by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.

  17. Quantitative risks analysis of maritime terminal petrochemical

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferreira, Leandro Silveira; Leal, Cesar A. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica (PROMEC)]. E-mail: leandro19889900@yahoo.com.br

    2008-07-01

    This work consists of the application of a computer program (RISKAN) developed for studies of quantification of industrial risks and also a revision of the models used in the program. As part the evaluation made, a test was performed with the application of the computer program to estimate the risks for a marine terminal for storage of petrochemical products, in the city of Rio Grande, Brazil. Thus, as part of the work, it was performed a Quantitative Risk Analysis associated to the terminal, both for the workers and for the population nearby, with a verification of acceptability using the tolerability limits established by the State Licensing Agency (FEPAM-RS). In the risk analysis methodology used internationally, the most used way of presenting results of social risks is in the graphical form with the use of the FN curves and for the individual risk it is common the use of the iso-risk curves traced on the map of the area where is the plant. In the beginning of the study, both a historical analysis of accidents and use of the technique of Preliminary Analysis of Risks were made in order to aid in the process of identification of the possible scenarios of accidents related to the activities in the terminal. After identifying the initiating events, their frequencies or probabilities of occurrence were estimated and followed by the calculations of the physical effects and deaths, with the use, inside the computer program, of published models of Prins Mauritz Laboratory and of American Institute of Chemical Engineers. The average social risk obtained for the external populations was of 8.7x10{sup -7} fatality.year{sup -1} and for the internal population (people working inside the terminal), 3.2x10{sup -4} fatality.year-1. The accident scenario that most contributed to the social risk was death due to exposure to the thermal radiation caused by pool fire, with 84.3% of the total estimated for external populations and 82.9% for the people inside the terminal. The

  18. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  19. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  20. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David;

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... on three fragrance ingredients in order to provide a practical assessment of the predictive value of the QRA approach. It is important to have data to assess that the methodology provides a robust approach for primary prevention of contact sensitization induction for fragrance ingredients identified...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  1. Quantitative risk analysis of urban flooding in lowland areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.

    2010-01-01

    Urban flood risk analyses suffer from a lack of quantitative historical data on flooding incidents. Data collection takes place on an ad hoc basis and is usually restricted to severe events. The resulting data deficiency renders quantitative assessment of urban flood risks uncertain. The study repor

  2. A comparison of risk assessment techniques from qualitative to quantitative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Altenbach, T.J.

    1995-02-13

    Risk assessment techniques vary from purely qualitative approaches, through a regime of semi-qualitative to the more traditional quantitative. Constraints such as time, money, manpower, skills, management perceptions, risk result communication to the public, and political pressures all affect the manner in which risk assessments are carried out. This paper surveys some risk matrix techniques, examining the uses and applicability for each. Limitations and problems for each technique are presented and compared to the others. Risk matrix approaches vary from purely qualitative axis descriptions of accident frequency vs consequences, to fully quantitative axis definitions using multi-attribute utility theory to equate different types of risk from the same operation.

  3. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  4. Contract farming risks: A quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arkins M Kabungo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to identify the key risks facing each of the stakeholders in the export-focused paprika value chain in Zambia. Although a deterministic cost-benefit analysis indicated that this outgrower scheme would have a very satisfactory net present value (NPV, a Monte Carlo analysis using an integrated financial–economic–stakeholder model identifies a number of risk variables that could make this system unsustainable. The major risks include the variability of the real exchange rate in Zambia; the international price of paprika; and the farm yield rates. This analysis points out that irrigation systems are very important for both stabilising and increasing yields. The analysis also shows the limitations of loan financing for such outgrower arrangements when at the sector level it is difficult or even impossible to mitigate the risks from real exchange rate movements and changes in international commodity prices. This micro-level analysis shows how critical real exchange rate management policies are in achieving sustainability of such export-oriented value chains.

  5. The use of quantitative risk assessment in HACCP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoornstra, E.; Northolt, M.D.; Notermans, S.; Barendsz, A.W.

    2001-01-01

    During the hazard analysis as part of the development of a HACCP-system, first the hazards (contaminants) have to be identified and then the risks have to be assessed. Often, this assessment is restricted to a qualitative analysis. By using elements of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) the hazard a

  6. Integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in a health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adám, Balázs; Molnár, Agnes; Gulis, Gabriel;

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in an ...... a practical example of applying quantification in an HIA, thereby promoting its incorporation into political decision making.......BACKGROUND: Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal...

  7. Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Q L; Barker, G C; Gorris, L G M; Tian, M S; Song, X Y; Malakar, P K

    2015-03-01

    Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, effectiveness of microbial risk assessment utility for risk management decision making, and application of QMRA to establish appropriate Food Safety Objectives.

  8. Country Risk Analysis: A Survey of the Quantitative Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Hiranya K Nath

    2008-01-01

    With globalization and financial integration, there has been rapid growth of international lending and foreign direct investment (FDI). In view of this emerging trend, country risk analysis has become extremely important for the international creditors and investors. This paper briefly discusses the concepts and definitions, and presents a survey of the quantitative methods that are used to address various issues related to country risk. It also gives a summary review of selected empirical st...

  9. Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Q. L.; Barker, G. C.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Tian, M.S.; Song, X. Y.; Malakar, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, eff...

  10. New developments in quantitative risk assessment of campylobacteriosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havelaar, Arie; Nauta, Maarten

    the formulation of quantitative criteria for broilers and other meats. New modelling methods (e.g. Bayesian approaches) are being proposed, but are currently less detailed than conventional Monte Carlo simulation models. There is considerable uncertainty in dose-response relationships and in particular, current......Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is now broadly accepted as an important decision support tool in food safety risk management. It has been used to support decision making at the global level (Codex Alimentarius, FAO and WHO), at the European level (European Food Safety Authority...... go undetected after on-farm monitoring. Processing models indicate that defeathering and evisceration are key processes leading to carcass contamination, but there is still considerable uncertainty of the quantitative effects of these processes. In the kitchen, cross-contamination from contaminated...

  11. Modeling Logistic Performance in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijgersberg, H.; Tromp, S.O.; Jacxsens, L.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage ti

  12. Students perceiving risk: a quantitative assessment on three South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Students perceiving risk: a quantitative assessment on three South African ... The project originated in qualitative research conducted over two years (2008- 2009) ... Cet article documente le risque perçu par les étudiants dans trois universités ...

  13. A Team Mental Model Perspective of Pre-Quantitative Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Lynne P.

    2011-01-01

    This study was conducted to better understand how teams conceptualize risk before it can be quantified, and the processes by which a team forms a shared mental model of this pre-quantitative risk. Using an extreme case, this study analyzes seven months of team meeting transcripts, covering the entire lifetime of the team. Through an analysis of team discussions, a rich and varied structural model of risk emerges that goes significantly beyond classical representations of risk as the product of a negative consequence and a probability. In addition to those two fundamental components, the team conceptualization includes the ability to influence outcomes and probabilities, networks of goals, interaction effects, and qualitative judgments about the acceptability of risk, all affected by associated uncertainties. In moving from individual to team mental models, team members employ a number of strategies to gain group recognition of risks and to resolve or accept differences.

  14. Quantitative risk assessment methods for cancer and noncancer effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Ronald E

    2012-01-01

    Human health risk assessments have evolved from the more qualitative approaches to more quantitative approaches in the past decade. This has been facilitated by the improvement in computer hardware and software capability and novel computational approaches being slowly recognized by regulatory agencies. These events have helped reduce the reliance on experimental animals as well as better utilization of published animal toxicology data in deriving quantitative toxicity indices that may be useful for risk management purposes. This chapter briefly describes some of the approaches as described in the guidance documents from several of the regulatory agencies as it pertains to hazard identification and dose-response assessment of a chemical. These approaches are contrasted with more novel computational approaches that provide a better grasp of the uncertainty often associated with chemical risk assessments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Quantitative basin evaluation, a tool for reducing exploration risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    Over the last decade, the evaluation of the petroleum potential of sedimentary basins has shifted from a qualitative to a quantitative approach. This new perspective has led to the elaboration of basin simulators and a new discipline emerged: the basin modeling which is nowadays massively used by the oil industry. This methodology is an integration platform including geology, geochemistry and physics. Combined with uncertainty assessments, it is a powerful tool for reducing exploration risks. In this respect, IFP dedicates one of its IFP Sessions to 'Quantitative Basin Evaluation, a Tool for Reducing Exploration Risks'. This session was held on 18 June, 2001. The purpose of this workshop is to review the most modern advances used by professionals in the oil industry to improve the rate of hydrocarbon discovery and to lower exploration costs in frontier areas. IFP Sessions are conferences held for decision-makers and technical leaders to promote exchanges among involved parties: oil and gas companies, petroleum services and supply industries, engineering firms and research centers. Program: quantitative basin evaluation: the Berkine basin and its results; application of 2-D and 3-D basin modelling in the Gulf of Mexico; 2-D modelling in Brazilian sedimentary basins: lessons from recent case histories; quantitative modelling in the North Sea: towards a more confident assessment of the critical risks (*); uncertainties evaluation in petroleum system modelling (*); prediction of hydrocarbon type in the deep-water, Gulf of Mexico (*); constraining source and charge risk in deep-water areas - the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Angola (*); an overview of basin modelling and geochemistry activities in PDO; quantitative basin evaluation: how does it affect decision in exploration (*); panel discussion: evolution of the modelling tools. Abstracts are available only for 5 presentations (marked with (*)). (J.S.)

  16. Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

    2005-08-31

    Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

  17. Issues in qualitative and quantitative risk analysis for developmental toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmel, C A; Gaylor, D W

    1988-03-01

    The qualitative and quantitative evaluation of risk in developmental toxicology has been discussed in several recent publications. A number of issues still are to be resolved in this area. The qualitative evaluation and interpretation of end points in developmental toxicology depends on an understanding of the biological events leading to the end points observed, the relationships among end points, and their relationship to dose and to maternal toxicity. The interpretation of these end points is also affected by the statistical power of the experiments used for detecting the various end points observed. The quantitative risk assessment attempts to estimate human risk for developmental toxicity as a function of dose. The current approach is to apply safety (uncertainty) factors to the no observed effect level (NOEL). An alternative presented and discussed here is to model the experimental data and apply a safety factor to an estimated risk level to achieve an "acceptable" level of risk. In cases where the dose-response curves upward, this approach provides a conservative estimate of risk. This procedure does not preclude the existence of a threshold dose. More research is needed to develop appropriate dose-response models that can provide better estimates for low-dose extrapolation of developmental effects.

  18. Quantitative finance and risk management a physicist's approach

    CERN Document Server

    Dash, Jan W

    2004-01-01

    Written by a physicist with over 15 years of experience as a quant on Wall Street, this book treats a wide variety of topics. Presenting the theory and practice of quantitative finance and risk, it delves into the "how to" and "what it's like" aspects not covered in textbooks or research papers. Both standard and new results are presented. A "Technical Index" indicates the mathematical level; from zero to PhD mathematical background; for each section. The finance aspect in each section is self-contained. Real-life comments on "life as a quant" are included. This book is designed for scientists and engineers desiring to learn quantitative finance, and for quantitative analysts and finance graduate students. Parts will be of interest to research academics.

  19. [Quantitative method of representative contaminants in groundwater pollution risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun-Jie; He, Jiang-Tao; Lu, Yan; Liu, Li-Ya; Zhang, Xiao-Liang

    2012-03-01

    In the light of the problem that stress vulnerability assessment in groundwater pollution risk assessment is lack of an effective quantitative system, a new system was proposed based on representative contaminants and corresponding emission quantities through the analysis of groundwater pollution sources. And quantitative method of the representative contaminants in this system was established by analyzing the three properties of representative contaminants and determining the research emphasis using analytic hierarchy process. The method had been applied to the assessment of Beijing groundwater pollution risk. The results demonstrated that the representative contaminants hazards greatly depended on different research emphasizes. There were also differences between the sequence of three representative contaminants hazards and their corresponding properties. It suggested that subjective tendency of the research emphasis had a decisive impact on calculation results. In addition, by the means of sequence to normalize the three properties and to unify the quantified properties results would zoom in or out of the relative properties characteristic of different representative contaminants.

  20. New developments in quantitative risk assessment of campylobacteriosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havelaar, Arie; Nauta, Maarten

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is now broadly accepted as an important decision support tool in food safety risk management. It has been used to support decision making at the global level (Codex Alimentarius, FAO and WHO), at the European level (European Food Safety Authority...... go undetected after on-farm monitoring. Processing models indicate that defeathering and evisceration are key processes leading to carcass contamination, but there is still considerable uncertainty of the quantitative effects of these processes. In the kitchen, cross-contamination from contaminated...... meat to ready-to-eat foods is the main pathway of consumer exposure. Undercooking appears to be of minor importance. However, this conclusion may need to be reconsidered in the light of increasing consumption of minced meat preparations. Five QMRA models have been compared in detail, and detailed...

  1. Quantitative Security Risk Assessment and Management for Railway Transportation Infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flammini, Francesco; Gaglione, Andrea; Mazzocca, Nicola; Pragliola, Concetta

    Scientists have been long investigating procedures, models and tools for the risk analysis in several domains, from economics to computer networks. This paper presents a quantitative method and a tool for the security risk assessment and management specifically tailored to the context of railway transportation systems, which are exposed to threats ranging from vandalism to terrorism. The method is based on a reference mathematical model and it is supported by a specifically developed tool. The tool allows for the management of data, including attributes of attack scenarios and effectiveness of protection mechanisms, and the computation of results, including risk and cost/benefit indices. The main focus is on the design of physical protection systems, but the analysis can be extended to logical threats as well. The cost/benefit analysis allows for the evaluation of the return on investment, which is a nowadays important issue to be addressed by risk analysts.

  2. Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin E Conners

    Full Text Available Increasingly, 'place', including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC, whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1 Participatory mapping; 2 Quantitative interviews; 3 Sex work venue field observation; 4 Time-location-activity diaries; 5 In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions.

  3. Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conners, Erin E.; West, Brooke S.; Roth, Alexis M.; Meckel-Parker, Kristen G.; Kwan, Mei-Po; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Staines-Orozco, Hugo; Clapp, John D.; Brouwer, Kimberly C.

    2016-01-01

    Increasingly, ‘place’, including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC), whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs) in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1) Participatory mapping; 2) Quantitative interviews; 3) Sex work venue field observation; 4) Time-location-activity diaries; 5) In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions. PMID:27191846

  4. QUANTITATIVE RISK MAPPING OF URBAN GAS PIPELINE NETWORKS USING GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Azari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Natural gas is considered an important source of energy in the world. By increasing growth of urbanization, urban gas pipelines which transmit natural gas from transmission pipelines to consumers, will become a dense network. The increase in the density of urban pipelines will influence probability of occurring bad accidents in urban areas. These accidents have a catastrophic effect on people and their property. Within the next few years, risk mapping will become an important component in urban planning and management of large cities in order to decrease the probability of accident and to control them. Therefore, it is important to assess risk values and determine their location on urban map using an appropriate method. In the history of risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks, the pipelines has always been considered one by one and their density in urban area has not been considered. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of several pipelines on the risk value of a specific grid point. This paper outlines a quantitative risk assessment method for analysing the risk of urban natural gas pipeline networks. It consists of two main parts: failure rate calculation where the EGIG historical data are used and fatal length calculation that involves calculation of gas release and fatality rate of consequences. We consider jet fire, fireball and explosion for investigating the consequences of gas pipeline failure. The outcome of this method is an individual risk and is shown as a risk map.

  5. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  6. Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

    2012-04-01

    Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central

  7. A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bos, Peter M.J.; Boon, Polly E.; van der Voet, Hilko

    2009-01-01

    Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model...... provides quantitative information on these three parameters. A semi-quantitative tool is presented that combines information on these parameters into easy-readable charts that will facilitate risk evaluations of exposure situations and decisions on risk reduction measures. This tool is based on a concept...... of health impact categorization that has been successfully in force for several years within several emergency planning programs. Four health impact categories are distinguished: No-Health Impact, Low-Health Impact, Moderate-Health Impact and Severe-Health Impact. Two different charts are presented...

  8. Quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitization: Success or failure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimber, Ian; Gerberick, G Frank; Basketter, David A

    2017-02-01

    Skin sensitization is unique in the world of toxicology. There is a combination of reliable, validated predictive test methods for identification of skin sensitizing chemicals, a clearly documented and transparent approach to risk assessment, and effective feedback from dermatology clinics around the world delivering evidence of the success or failure of the hazard identification/risk assessment/management process. Recent epidemics of contact allergy, particularly to preservatives, have raised questions of whether the safety/risk assessment process is working in an optimal manner (or indeed is working at all!). This review has as its focus skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The core toxicological principles of QRA are reviewed, and evidence of use and misuse examined. What becomes clear is that skin sensitization QRA will only function adequately if two essential criteria are met. The first is that QRA is applied rigourously, and the second is that potential exposure to the sensitizing substance is assessed adequately. This conclusion will come as no surprise to any toxicologist who appreciates the basic premise that "risk = hazard x exposure". Accordingly, use of skin sensitization QRA is encouraged, not least because the essential feedback from dermatology clinics can be used as a tool to refine QRA in situations where this risk assessment tool has not been properly used.

  9. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  10. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  11. Quantitative risk assessment modeling for nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Qu, Xiaobo; Wang, Xinchang; Yuanita, Vivi; Wong, Siew Chee

    2011-03-01

    Urban road tunnels provide an increasingly cost-effective engineering solution, especially in compact cities like Singapore. For some urban road tunnels, tunnel characteristics such as tunnel configurations, geometries, provisions of tunnel electrical and mechanical systems, traffic volumes, etc. may vary from one section to another. These urban road tunnels that have characterized nonuniform parameters are referred to as nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels. In this study, a novel quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model is proposed for nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels because the existing QRA models for road tunnels are inapplicable to assess the risks in these road tunnels. This model uses a tunnel segmentation principle whereby a nonhomogeneous urban road tunnel is divided into various homogenous sections. Individual risk for road tunnel sections as well as the integrated risk indices for the entire road tunnel is defined. The article then proceeds to develop a new QRA model for each of the homogeneous sections. Compared to the existing QRA models for road tunnels, this section-based model incorporates one additional top event-toxic gases due to traffic congestion-and employs the Poisson regression method to estimate the vehicle accident frequencies of tunnel sections. This article further illustrates an aggregated QRA model for nonhomogeneous urban tunnels by integrating the section-based QRA models. Finally, a case study in Singapore is carried out.

  12. Is there a place for quantitative risk assessment?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, Eric J [Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY (United States)

    2009-06-01

    The use of ionising radiations is so well established, especially in the practice of medicine, that it is impossible to imagine contemporary life without them. At the same time, ionising radiations are a known and proven human carcinogen. Exposure to radiation in some contexts elicits fear and alarm (nuclear power for example) while in other situations, until recently at least, it was accepted with alacrity (diagnostic x-rays for example). This non-uniform reaction to the potential hazards of radiation highlights the importance of quantitative risk estimates, which are necessary to help put things into perspective. Three areas will be discussed where quantitative risk estimates are needed and where uncertainties and limitations are a problem. First, the question of diagnostic x-rays. CT usage over the past quarter of a century has increased about 12 fold in the UK and more than 20 fold in the US. In both countries, more than 90% of the collective population dose from diagnostic x-rays comes from the few high dose procedures, such as interventional radiology, CT scans, lumbar spine x-rays and barium enemas. These all involve doses close to the lower limit at which there are credible epidemiological data for an excess cancer incidence. This is a critical question; what is the lowest dose at which there is good evidence of an elevated cancer incidence? Without low dose risk estimates the risk-benefit ratio of diagnostic procedures cannot be assessed. Second, the use of new techniques in radiation oncology. IMRT is widely used to obtain a more conformal dose distribution, particularly in children. It results in a larger total body dose, due to an increased number of monitor units and to the application of more radiation fields. The Linacs used today were not designed for IMRT and are based on leakage standards that were decided decades ago. It will be difficult and costly to reduce leakage from treatment machines, and a necessary first step is to refine the available

  13. Quantitative risk stratification of oral leukoplakia with exfoliative cytology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Liu

    Full Text Available Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC. Test outcome is reported as "negative", "atypical" (defined as abnormal epithelial changes of uncertain diagnostic significance, and "positive" (defined as definitive cellular evidence of epithelial dysplasia or carcinoma. The major challenge is how to properly manage the "atypical" patients in order to diagnose OSCC early and prevent OSCC. In this study, we collected exfoliative cytology data, histopathology data, and clinical data of normal subjects (n=102, oral leukoplakia (OLK patients (n=82, and OSCC patients (n=93, and developed a data analysis procedure for quantitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This procedure involving a step called expert-guided data transformation and reconstruction (EdTAR which allows automatic data processing and reconstruction and reveals informative signals for subsequent risk stratification. Modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Among the several models tested using resampling methods for parameter pruning and performance evaluation, Support Vector Machine (SVM was found to be optimal with a high sensitivity (median>0.98 and specificity (median>0.99. With the SVM model, we constructed an oral cancer risk index (OCRI which may potentially guide clinical follow-up of OLK patients. One OLK patient with an initial OCRI of 0.88 developed OSCC after 40 months of follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed a statistical method for qualitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This method may potentially improve cost-effectiveness of clinical follow-up of OLK patients, and help design clinical chemoprevention trial for high-risk populations.

  14. Quantitative risk stratification of oral leukoplakia with exfoliative cytology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yao; Li, Jianying; Liu, Xiaoyong; Liu, Xudong; Khawar, Waqaar; Zhang, Xinyan; Wang, Fan; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Test outcome is reported as "negative", "atypical" (defined as abnormal epithelial changes of uncertain diagnostic significance), and "positive" (defined as definitive cellular evidence of epithelial dysplasia or carcinoma). The major challenge is how to properly manage the "atypical" patients in order to diagnose OSCC early and prevent OSCC. In this study, we collected exfoliative cytology data, histopathology data, and clinical data of normal subjects (n=102), oral leukoplakia (OLK) patients (n=82), and OSCC patients (n=93), and developed a data analysis procedure for quantitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This procedure involving a step called expert-guided data transformation and reconstruction (EdTAR) which allows automatic data processing and reconstruction and reveals informative signals for subsequent risk stratification. Modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Among the several models tested using resampling methods for parameter pruning and performance evaluation, Support Vector Machine (SVM) was found to be optimal with a high sensitivity (median>0.98) and specificity (median>0.99). With the SVM model, we constructed an oral cancer risk index (OCRI) which may potentially guide clinical follow-up of OLK patients. One OLK patient with an initial OCRI of 0.88 developed OSCC after 40 months of follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed a statistical method for qualitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This method may potentially improve cost-effectiveness of clinical follow-up of OLK patients, and help design clinical chemoprevention trial for high-risk populations.

  15. Quantitative risk analysis offshore-Human and organizational factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espen Skogdalen, Jon, E-mail: jon.espen.skogdalen@gmail.co [Department of Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning, University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway); Vinnem, Jan Erik, E-mail: jev@preventor.n [Department of Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning, University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)

    2011-04-15

    Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) are one of the main tools for risk management within the Norwegian and UK oil and gas industry. Much criticism has been given to the limitations related to the QRA-models and that the QRAs do not include human and organizational factors (HOF-factors). Norway and UK offshore legislation and guidelines require that the HOF-factors are included in the QRAs. A study of 15 QRAs shows that the factors are to some extent included, and there are large differences between the QRAs. The QRAs are categorized into four levels according to the findings. Level 1 QRAs do not describe or comment on the HOF-factors at all. Relevant research projects have been conducted to fulfill the requirements of Level 3 analyses. At this level, there is a systematic collection of data related to HOF. The methods are systematic and documented, and the QRAs are adjusted. None of the QRAs fulfill the Level 4 requirements. Level 4 QRAs include the model and describe the HOF-factors as well as explain how the results should be followed up in the overall risk management. Safety audits by regulatory authorities are probably necessary to point out the direction for QRA and speed up the development.

  16. Modeling logistic performance in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijgersberg, Hajo; Tromp, Seth; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage times, temperatures, gas conditions, and their distributions) are determined. However, the logistic chain with its queues (storages, shelves) and mechanisms for ordering products is usually not taken into account. As a consequence, storage times-mutually dependent in successive steps in the chain-cannot be described adequately. This may have a great impact on the tails of risk distributions. Because food safety risks are generally very small, it is crucial to model the tails of (underlying) distributions as accurately as possible. Logistic performance can be modeled by describing the underlying planning and scheduling mechanisms in discrete-event modeling. This is common practice in operations research, specifically in supply chain management. In this article, we present the application of discrete-event modeling in the context of a QMRA for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh-cut iceberg lettuce. We show the potential value of discrete-event modeling in QMRA by calculating logistic interventions (modifications in the logistic chain) and determining their significance with respect to food safety.

  17. Quantitative risk assessment for a glass fiber insulation product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayerweather, W E; Bender, J R; Hadley, J G; Eastes, W

    1997-04-01

    California Proposition 65 (Prop65) provides a mechanism by which the manufacturer may perform a quantitative risk assessment to be used in determining the need for cancer warning labels. This paper presents a risk assessment under this regulation for professional and do-it-yourself insulation installers. It determines the level of insulation glass fiber exposure (specifically Owens Corning's R-25 PinkPlus with Miraflex) that, assuming a working lifetime exposure, poses no significant cancer risk under Prop65's regulations. "No significant risk" is defined under Prop65 as a lifetime risk of no more than one additional cancer case per 100,000 exposed persons, and nonsignificant exposure is defined as a working lifetime exposure associated with "no significant risk." This determination can be carried out despite the fact that the relevant underlying studies (i.e., chronic inhalation bioassays) of comparable glass wool fibers do not show tumorigenic activity. Nonsignificant exposures are estimated from (1) the most recent RCC chronic inhalation bioassay of nondurable fiberglass in rats; (2) intraperitoneal fiberglass injection studies in rats; (3) a distributional, decision analysis approach applied to four chronic inhalation rat bioassays of conventional fiberglass; (4) an extrapolation from the RCC chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable refractory ceramic fibers; and (5) an extrapolation from the IOM chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable E glass microfibers. When the EPA linear nonthreshold model is used, central estimates of nonsignificant exposure range from 0.36 fibers/cc (for the RCC chronic inhalation bioassay of fiberglass) through 21 fibers/cc (for the i.p. fiberglass injection studies). Lower 95% confidence bounds on these estimates vary from 0.17 fibers/cc through 13 fibers/cc. Estimates derived from the distributional approach or from applying the EPA linear nonthreshold model to chronic bioassays of durable fibers such as refractory ceramic fiber

  18. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph......D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes...... of variations in the data. Essential limiting factors of urban flooding QMRAs were identified as uncertainty regarding ingestion volumes, the limited use of dose-response models and low numbers of microbial parameters measurements and absent validation of the risk assessments. Because improving knowledge...

  19. Quantitative breast MRI radiomics for cancer risk assessment and the monitoring of high-risk populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendel, Kayla R.; Li, Hui; Giger, Maryellen L.

    2016-03-01

    Breast density is routinely assessed qualitatively in screening mammography. However, it is challenging to quantitatively determine a 3D density from a 2D image such as a mammogram. Furthermore, dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) is used more frequently in the screening of high-risk populations. The purpose of our study is to segment parenchyma and to quantitatively determine volumetric breast density on pre-contrast axial DCE-MRI images (i.e., non-contrast) using a semi-automated quantitative approach. In this study, we retroactively examined 3D DCE-MRI images taken for breast cancer screening of a high-risk population. We analyzed 66 cases with ages between 28 and 76 (mean 48.8, standard deviation 10.8). DCE-MRIs were obtained on a Philips 3.0 T scanner. Our semi-automated DCE-MRI algorithm includes: (a) segmentation of breast tissue from non-breast tissue using fuzzy cmeans clustering (b) separation of dense and fatty tissues using Otsu's method, and (c) calculation of volumetric density as the ratio of dense voxels to total breast voxels. We examined the relationship between pre-contrast DCE-MRI density and clinical BI-RADS density obtained from radiology reports, and obtained a statistically significant correlation [Spearman ρ-value of 0.66 (p < 0.0001)]. Our method within precision medicine may be useful for monitoring high-risk populations.

  20. Dermal sensitization quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Api, Anne Marie; Basketter, David A; Cadby, Peter A; Cano, Marie-France; Ellis, Graham; Gerberick, G Frank; Griem, Peter; McNamee, Pauline M; Ryan, Cindy A; Safford, Robert

    2008-10-01

    Based on chemical, cellular, and molecular understanding of dermal sensitization, an exposure-based quantitative risk assessment (QRA) can be conducted to determine safe use levels of fragrance ingredients in different consumer product types. The key steps are: (1) determination of benchmarks (no expected sensitization induction level (NESIL)); (2) application of sensitization assessment factors (SAF); and (3) consumer exposure (CEL) calculation through product use. Using these parameters, an acceptable exposure level (AEL) can be calculated and compared with the CEL. The ratio of AEL to CEL must be favorable to support safe use of the potential skin sensitizer. This ratio must be calculated for the fragrance ingredient in each product type. Based on the Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Inc. (RIFM) Expert Panel's recommendation, RIFM and the International Fragrance Association (IFRA) have adopted the dermal sensitization QRA approach described in this review for fragrance ingredients identified as potential dermal sensitizers. This now forms the fragrance industry's core strategy for primary prevention of dermal sensitization to these materials in consumer products. This methodology is used to determine global fragrance industry product management practices (IFRA Standards) for fragrance ingredients that are potential dermal sensitizers. This paper describes the principles of the recommended approach, provides detailed review of all the information used in the dermal sensitization QRA approach for fragrance ingredients and presents key conclusions for its use now and refinement in the future.

  1. The Application of the Semi-quantitative Risk Assessment Method to Urban Natural Gas Pipelines

    OpenAIRE

    Bai, Yongqiang; LiangHai LV; Wang, Tong

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides a method of semi-quantitative risk assessment for urban gas pipelines, by modifying Kent analysis method. The influence factors of fault frequency and consequence for urban gas pipelines are analyzed, and the grade rules are studied on. The grade rules of fault frequency and consequence for urban natural gas pipelines are provided. Using semi-quantitative risk matrix, the risk grade of the urban gas pipelines is obtained, and the risk primary sort for gas pipel...

  2. Information Risk Management: Qualitative or Quantitative? Cross industry lessons from medical and financial fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upasna Saluja

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises across the world are taking a hard look at their risk management practices. A number of qualitative and quantitative models and approaches are employed by risk practitioners to keep risk under check. As a norm most organizations end up choosing the more flexible, easier to deploy and customize qualitative models of risk assessment. In practice one sees that such models often call upon the practitioners to make qualitative judgments on a relative rating scale which brings in considerable room for errors, biases and subjectivity. On the other hand under the quantitative risk analysis approach, estimation of risk is connected with application of numerical measures of some kind. Medical risk management models lend themselves as ideal candidates for deriving lessons for Information Security Risk Management. We can use this considerably developed understanding of risk management from the medical field especially Survival Analysis towards handling risks that information infrastructures face. Similarly, financial risk management discipline prides itself on perhaps the most quantifiable of models in risk management. Market Risk and Credit Risk Information Security Risk Management can make risk measurement more objective and quantitative by referring to the approach of Credit Risk. During the recent financial crisis many investors and financial institutions lost money or went bankrupt respectively, because they did not apply the basic principles of risk management. Learning from the financial crisis provides some valuable lessons for information risk management.

  3. Information Risk Management: Qualitative or Quantitative? Cross industry lessons from medical and financial fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upasna Saluja

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises across the world are taking a hard look at their risk management practices. A number of qualitative and quantitative models and approaches are employed by risk practitioners to keep risk under check. As a norm most organizations end up choosing the more flexible, easier to deploy and customize qualitative models of risk assessment. In practice one sees that such models often call upon the practitioners to make qualitative judgments on a relative rating scale which brings in considerable room for errors, biases and subjectivity. On the other hand under the quantitative risk analysis approach, estimation of risk is connected with application of numerical measures of some kind. Medical risk management models lend themselves as ideal candidates for deriving lessons for Information Security Risk Management. We can use this considerably developed understanding of risk management from the medical field especially Survival Analysis towards handling risks that information infrastructures face. Similarly, financial risk management discipline prides itself on perhaps the most quantifiable of models in risk management. Market Risk and Credit Risk Information Security Risk Management can make risk measurement more objective and quantitative by referring to the approach of Credit Risk. During the recent financial crisis many investors and financial institutions lost money or went bankrupt respectively, because they did not apply the basic principles of risk management. Learning from the financial crisis provides some valuable lessons for information risk management.

  4. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  5. Stepwise quantitative risk assessment as a tool for characterization of microbiological food safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gerwen, S J; te Giffel, M C; van't Riet, K; Beumer, R R; Zwietering, M H

    2000-06-01

    This paper describes a system for the microbiological quantitative risk assessment for food products and their production processes. The system applies a stepwise risk assessment, allowing the main problems to be addressed before focusing on less important problems. First, risks are assessed broadly, using order of magnitude estimates. Characteristic numbers are used to quantitatively characterize microbial behaviour during the production process. These numbers help to highlight the major risk-determining phenomena, and to find negligible aspects. Second, the risk-determining phenomena are studied in more detail. Both general and/or specific models can be used for this and varying situations can be simulated to quantitatively describe the risk-determining phenomena. Third, even more detailed studies can be performed where necessary, for instance by using stochastic variables. The system for quantitative risk assessment has been implemented as a decision supporting expert system called SIEFE: Stepwise and Interactive Evaluation of Food safety by an Expert System. SIEFE performs bacterial risk assessments in a structured manner, using various information sources. Because all steps are transparent, every step can easily be scrutinized. In the current study the effectiveness of SIEFE is shown for a cheese spread. With this product, quantitative data concerning the major risk-determining factors were not completely available to carry out a full detailed assessment. However, this did not necessarily hamper adequate risk estimation. Using ranges of values instead helped identifying the quantitatively most important parameters and the magnitude of their impact. This example shows that SIEFE provides quantitative insights into production processes and their risk-determining factors to both risk assessors and decision makers, and highlights critical gaps in knowledge.

  6. Stepwise quantitative risk assessment as a tool for characterization of microbiological food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerwen, van S.J.C.; Giffel, te M.C.; Riet, van 't K.; Beumer, R.R.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes a system for the microbiological quantitative risk assessment for food products and their production processes. The system applies a stepwise risk assessment, allowing the main problems to be addressed before focusing on less important problems. First, risks are assessed broadly

  7. The anatomy of risk: a quantitative investigation into injection drug users' taxonomy of risk attitudes and perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsch, Lisa A; Bickel, Warren K; Badger, Gary J; Quesnel, Kimberly J

    2007-04-01

    The authors report on the first study to use the systematic quantitative methods of the psychometric paradigm of risk analysis to examine risk perceptions among substance abusers. Fifty opioid-dependent injection drug users (IDUs) and 50 matched, control individuals completed a series of measures to provide quantitative representations of risk perceptions about 53 risk-laden items (including activities, substances, technologies, and diseases). Results indicated that risk perceptions of IDUs and controls were highly correlated on many items; however, IDUs perceived several items, such as hepatitis, HIV, handguns, and unprotected sex, as markedly more risky. IDUs also perceived both themselves and others as having greater risk of contracting hepatitis and HIV. IDUs wanted significantly reduced regulation of drugs, including prescription drugs, heroin, valium, and barbiturates. Factor analyses conducted to understand how risk ratings related to various characteristics that have been shown to influence risk perception revealed 3 factors that account for approximately 80% of the variability in risk perception across groups: Factor 1, related to the severity of the risk; Factor 2, related to the certainty of the risk; and Factor 3, related to the immediacy of the risk. However, IDUs more strongly associated the extent to which they were personally affected by a risk item and the extent to which the risk affected fewer or more people to Factor 1, whereas control participants more strongly associated these characteristics with Factor 2. Identifying improved methodologies for evaluating the risk perceptions of IDUs may be of considerable utility in understanding their high-risk behavior.

  8. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  9. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and human health effect...

  10. A quantitative framework for estimating risk of collision between marine mammals and boats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Julien; Sabatier, Quentin; Gowan, Timothy A.; Giraud, Christophe; Gurarie, Eliezer; Calleson, Scott; Ortega-Ortiz, Joel G.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Rycyk, Athena; Koslovsky, Stacie M.

    2016-01-01

    Speed regulations of watercraft in protected areas are designed to reduce lethal collisions with wildlife but can have economic consequences. We present a quantitative framework for investigating the risk of deadly collisions between boats and wildlife.

  11. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequen...

  12. A comprehensive quantitative assessment of bird extinction risk in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathália Machado

    Full Text Available In an effort to avoid species loss, scientists have focused their efforts on the mechanisms making some species more prone to extinction than others. However, species show different responses to threats given their evolutionary history, behavior, and intrinsic biological features. We used bird biological features and external threats to (1 understand the multiple pathways driving Brazilian bird species to extinction, (2 to investigate if and how extinction risk is geographically structured, and (3 to quantify how much diversity is currently represented inside protected areas. We modeled the extinction risk of 1557 birds using classification trees and evaluated the relative contribution of each biological feature and external threat in predicting extinction risk. We also quantified the proportion of species and their geographic range currently protected by the network of Brazilian protected areas. The optimal classification tree showed different pathways to bird extinction. Habitat conversion was the most important predictor driving extinction risk though other variables, such as geographic range size, type of habitat, hunting or trapping and trophic guild, were also relevant in our models. Species under higher extinction risk were concentrated mainly in the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot and were not quite represented inside protected areas, neither in richness nor range. Predictive models could assist conservation actions, and this study could contribute by highlighting the importance of natural history and ecology in these actions.

  13. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of antibacterial hand hygiene products on risk of shigellosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffner, Donald W; Bowman, James P; English, Donald J; Fischler, George E; Fuls, Janice L; Krowka, John F; Kruszewski, Francis H

    2014-04-01

    There are conflicting reports on whether antibacterial hand hygiene products are more effective than nonantibacterial products in reducing bacteria on hands and preventing disease. This research used new laboratory data, together with simulation techniques, to compare the ability of nonantibacterial and antibacterial products to reduce shigellosis risk. One hundred sixtythree subjects were used to compare five different hand treatments: two nonantibacterial products and three antibacterial products, i.e., 0.46% triclosan, 4% chlorhexidine gluconate, or 62% ethyl alcohol. Hands were inoculated with 5.5 to 6 log CFU Shigella; the simulated food handlers then washed their hands with one of the five products before handling melon balls. Each simulation scenario represented an event in which 100 people would be exposed to Shigella from melon balls that had been handled by food workers with Shigella on their hands. Analysis of experimental data showed that the two nonantibacterial treatments produced about a 2-log reduction on hands. The three antibacterial treatments showed log reductions greater than 3 but less than 4 on hands. All three antibacterial treatments resulted in statistically significantly lower concentration on the melon balls relative to the nonantibacterial treatments. A simulation that assumed 1 million Shigella bacteria on the hands and the use of a nonantibacterial treatment predicted that 50 to 60 cases of shigellosis would result (of 100 exposed). Each of the antibacterial treatments was predicted to result in an appreciable number of simulations for which the number of illness cases would be 0, with the most common number of illness cases being 5 (of 100 exposed). These effects maintained statistical significance from 10(6) Shigella per hand down to as low as 100 Shigella per hand, with some evidence to support lower levels. This quantitative microbial risk assessment shows that antibacterial hand treatments can significantly reduce Shigella risk.

  14. A quantitative risk assessment for bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Japan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kadohira, M.; Stevenson, M.A.; Hogasen, H.R.; Koeijer, de A.A.

    2012-01-01

    A predictive case-cohort model was applied to Japanese data to analyze the interaction between challenge and stability factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) for the period 1985–2020. BSE risk in cattle was estimated as the expected number of detectable cases per year. The model was comp

  15. An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

  16. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  17. A Comprehensive Quantitative Assessment of Bird Extinction Risk in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Nathália Machado; Rafael Dias Loyola

    2013-01-01

    In an effort to avoid species loss, scientists have focused their efforts on the mechanisms making some species more prone to extinction than others. However, species show different responses to threats given their evolutionary history, behavior, and intrinsic biological features. We used bird biological features and external threats to (1) understand the multiple pathways driving Brazilian bird species to extinction, (2) to investigate if and how extinction risk is geographically structured,...

  18. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  19. Quantitative relations between risk, return and firm size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Petersen, A. M.; Stanley, H. E.

    2009-03-01

    We analyze —for a large set of stocks comprising four financial indices— the annual logarithmic growth rate R and the firm size, quantified by the market capitalization MC. For the Nasdaq Composite and the New York Stock Exchange Composite we find that the probability density functions of growth rates are Laplace ones in the broad central region, where the standard deviation σ(R), as a measure of risk, decreases with the MC as a power law σ(R)~(MC)- β. For both the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500, we find that the average growth rate langRrang decreases faster than σ(R) with MC, implying that the return-to-risk ratio langRrang/σ(R) also decreases with MC. For the S&P 500, langRrang and langRrang/σ(R) also follow power laws. For a 20-year time horizon, for the Nasdaq Composite we find that σ(R) vs. MC exhibits a functional form called a volatility smile, while for the NYSE Composite, we find power law stability between σ(r) and MC.

  20. Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

    2011-05-15

    In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment.

  1. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  2. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  3. Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Pepijn; Tamis, Jacqueline E; Foekema, Edwin M; Klok, Chris; Murk, Albertinka J

    2013-08-30

    The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO2 levels and related considerations of geological CO2 storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO2 levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO2 levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO2 levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A quantitative microbiological risk assessment for Campylobacter in petting zoos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Eric G; Berk, Petra A; Horneman, Mijke L; van Leusden, Frans M; de Jonge, Rob

    2014-09-01

    The significance of petting zoos for transmission of Campylobacter to humans and the effect of interventions were estimated. A stochastic QMRA model simulating a child or adult visiting a Dutch petting zoo was built. The model describes the transmission of Campylobacter in animal feces from the various animal species, fences, and the playground to ingestion by visitors through touching these so-called carriers and subsequently touching their lips. Extensive field and laboratory research was done to fulfill data needs. Fecal contamination on all carriers was measured by swabbing in 10 petting zoos, using Escherichia coli as an indicator. Carrier-hand and hand-lip touching frequencies were estimated by, in total, 13 days of observations of visitors by two observers at two petting zoos. The transmission from carrier to hand and from hand to lip by touching was measured using preapplied cow feces to which E. coli WG5 was added as an indicator. Via a Beta-Poisson dose-response function, the number of Campylobacter cases for the whole of the Netherlands (16 million population) in a year was estimated at 187 and 52 for children and adults, respectively, so 239 in total. This is significantly lower than previous QMRA results on chicken fillet and drinking water consumption. Scenarios of 90% reduction of the contamination (meant to mimic cleaning) of all fences and just goat fences reduces the number of cases by 82% and 75%, respectively. The model can easily be adapted for other fecally transmitted pathogens. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Snary, Emma L.; Swart, Arno N.; Simons, Robin R. L.

    2016-01-01

    A farm‐to‐consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter‐pig prevalence and the imp......A farm‐to‐consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter‐pig prevalence...

  6. Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bell

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative

  7. Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

    Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

  8. Quality-by-Design II: Application of Quantitative Risk Analysis to the Formulation of Ciprofloxacin Tablets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claycamp, H Gregg; Kona, Ravikanth; Fahmy, Raafat; Hoag, Stephen W

    2016-04-01

    Qualitative risk assessment methods are often used as the first step to determining design space boundaries; however, quantitative assessments of risk with respect to the design space, i.e., calculating the probability of failure for a given severity, are needed to fully characterize design space boundaries. Quantitative risk assessment methods in design and operational spaces are a significant aid to evaluating proposed design space boundaries. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a relatively simple strategy for design space definition using a simplified Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. This paper builds on a previous paper that used failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) qualitative risk assessment and Plackett-Burman design of experiments to identity the critical quality attributes. The results show that the sequential use of qualitative and quantitative risk assessments can focus the design of experiments on a reduced set of critical material and process parameters that determine a robust design space under conditions of limited laboratory experimentation. This approach provides a strategy by which the degree of risk associated with each known parameter can be calculated and allocates resources in a manner that manages risk to an acceptable level.

  9. 78 FR 9701 - Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-11

    ... Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Listeriosis From Soft-Ripened Cheese Consumption in the United States... Canada--Sant Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Listeriosis From Soft-Ripened Cheese... overall risk of invasive listeriosis to the consumer in the United States or Canada of soft-...

  10. Preparing for the unprecedented - Towards quantitative oil risk assessment in the Arctic marine areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevalainen, Maisa; Helle, Inari; Vanhatalo, Jarno

    2017-01-15

    The probability of major oil accidents in Arctic seas is increasing alongside with increasing maritime traffic. Hence, there is a growing need to understand the risks posed by oil spills to these unique and sensitive areas. So far these risks have mainly been acknowledged in terms of qualitative descriptions. We introduce a probabilistic framework, based on a general food web approach, to analyze ecological impacts of oil spills. We argue that the food web approach based on key functional groups is more appropriate for providing holistic view of the involved risks than assessments based on single species. We discuss the issues characteristic to the Arctic that need a special attention in risk assessment, and provide examples how to proceed towards quantitative risk estimates. The conceptual model presented in the paper helps to identify the most important risk factors and can be used as a template for more detailed risk assessments. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren E. Joly

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45 of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61 of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability.

  12. Sensitivity analysis of a two-dimensional quantitative microbiological risk assessment: keeping variability and uncertainty separated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busschaert, Pieter; Geeraerd, Annemie H; Uyttendaele, Mieke; Van Impe, Jan F

    2011-08-01

    The aim of quantitative microbiological risk assessment is to estimate the risk of illness caused by the presence of a pathogen in a food type, and to study the impact of interventions. Because of inherent variability and uncertainty, risk assessments are generally conducted stochastically, and if possible it is advised to characterize variability separately from uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis allows to indicate to which of the input variables the outcome of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment is most sensitive. Although a number of methods exist to apply sensitivity analysis to a risk assessment with probabilistic input variables (such as contamination, storage temperature, storage duration, etc.), it is challenging to perform sensitivity analysis in the case where a risk assessment includes a separate characterization of variability and uncertainty of input variables. A procedure is proposed that focuses on the relation between risk estimates obtained by Monte Carlo simulation and the location of pseudo-randomly sampled input variables within the uncertainty and variability distributions. Within this procedure, two methods are used-that is, an ANOVA-like model and Sobol sensitivity indices-to obtain and compare the impact of variability and of uncertainty of all input variables, and of model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. As a case study, this methodology is applied to a risk assessment to estimate the risk of contracting listeriosis due to consumption of deli meats.

  13. Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Petrova, E.

    2006-01-01

    International audience; One of the important tracks leading to natural risk prevention, disaster mitigation or the reduction of losses due to natural hazards is the vulnerability assessment of an "at-risk" region. The majority of researchers propose to assess vulnerability according to an expert evaluation of several qualitative characteristics, scoring each of them usually using three ratings: low, average, and high. Unlike these investigations, we attempted a quantitative vulnerability asse...

  14. The value of quantitative patient preferences in regulatory benefit-risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Egbrink, Mart; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative patient preferences are a method to involve patients in regulatory benefit-risk assessment. Assuming preferences can be elicited, there might be multiple advantages to their use. Legal, methodological and procedural issues do however imply that preferences are currently at most part of

  15. Studying Biology to Understand Risk: Dosimetry Models and Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Confidence in the quantitative prediction of risk is increased when the prediction is based to as great an extent as possible on the relevant biological factors that constitute the pathway from exposure to adverse outcome. With the first examples now over 40 years old, physiologi...

  16. Quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitisation : Consideration of a simplified approach for hair dye ingredients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goebel, C.; Diepgen, T.L.; Krasteva, M.; Schlatter, H.; Nicolas, J.F.; Blomeke, B.; Coenraads, P.J.; Schnuch, A.; Taylor, J.S.; Pungier, J.; Fautz, R.; Fuchs, A.; Schuh, W.; Gerberick, G.F.; Kimber, I.

    2012-01-01

    With the availability of the local lymph node assay, and the ability to evaluate effectively the relative skin sensitizing potency of contact allergens, a model for quantitative-risk-assessment (QRA) has been developed. This QRA process comprises: (a) determination of a no-expected-sensitisation-ind

  17. A probabilistic method for computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injuries compensation claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalle Carbonare, S; Folli, F; Patrini, E; Giudici, P; Bellazzi, R

    2013-01-01

    The increasing demand of health care services and the complexity of health care delivery require Health Care Organizations (HCOs) to approach clinical risk management through proper methods and tools. An important aspect of risk management is to exploit the analysis of medical injuries compensation claims in order to reduce adverse events and, at the same time, to optimize the costs of health insurance policies. This work provides a probabilistic method to estimate the risk level of a HCO by computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injury compensation claims. Our method is based on the estimate of a loss probability distribution from compensation claims data through parametric and non-parametric modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. The loss distribution can be estimated both on the whole dataset and, thanks to the application of a Bayesian hierarchical model, on stratified data. The approach allows to quantitatively assessing the risk structure of the HCO by analyzing the loss distribution and deriving its expected value and percentiles. We applied the proposed method to 206 cases of injuries with compensation requests collected from 1999 to the first semester of 2007 by the HCO of Lodi, in the Northern part of Italy. We computed the risk indexes taking into account the different clinical departments and the different hospitals involved. The approach proved to be useful to understand the HCO risk structure in terms of frequency, severity, expected and unexpected loss related to adverse events.

  18. Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

    2016-05-01

    Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the

  19. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Ramón Porta-Sancho, Juan

    2016-07-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

  20. Quantitative risk assessment for human salmonellosis through the consumption of pork sausage in Porto Alegre, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mürmann, Lisandra; Corbellini, Luis Gustavo; Collor, Alexandre Ávila; Cardoso, Marisa

    2011-04-01

    A quantitative microbiology risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the risk of Salmonella infection to consumers of fresh pork sausages prepared at barbecues in Porto Alegre, Brazil. For the analysis, a prevalence of 24.4% positive pork sausages with a level of contamination between 0.03 and 460 CFU g(-1) was assumed. Data related to frequency and habits of consumption were obtained by a questionnaire survey given to 424 people. A second-order Monte Carlo simulation separating the uncertain parameter of cooking time from the variable parameters was run. Of the people interviewed, 87.5% consumed pork sausage, and 85.4% ate it at barbecues. The average risk of salmonellosis per barbecue at a minimum cooking time of 15.6 min (worst-case scenario) was 6.24 × 10(-4), and the risk assessed per month was 1.61 × 10(-3). Cooking for 19 min would fully inactivate Salmonella in 99.9% of the cases. At this cooking time, the sausage reached a mean internal temperature of 75.7°C. The results of the quantitative microbiology risk assessment revealed that the consumption of fresh pork sausage is safe when cooking time is approximately 19 min, whereas undercooked pork sausage may represent a nonnegligible health risk for consumers.

  1. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  2. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Staphylococcus aureus in natural and processed cheese in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Heeyoung; Kim, Kyunga; Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Yoon, Yohan

    2015-09-01

    This study quantitatively assessed the microbial risk of Staphylococcus aureus in cheese in Korea. The quantitative microbial risk assessment was carried out for natural and processed cheese from factory to consumption. Hazards for S. aureus in cheese were identified through the literature. For exposure assessment, the levels of S. aureus contamination in cheeses were evaluated, and the growth of S. aureus was predicted by predictive models at the surveyed temperatures, and at the time of cheese processing and distribution. For hazard characterization, a dose-response model for S. aureus was found, and the model was used to estimate the risk of illness. With these data, simulation models were prepared with @RISK (Palisade Corp., Ithaca, NY) to estimate the risk of illness per person per day in risk characterization. Staphylococcus aureus cell counts on cheese samples from factories and markets were below detection limits (0.30-0.45 log cfu/g), and pert distribution showed that the mean temperature at markets was 6.63°C. Exponential model [P=1 - exp(7.64×10(-8) × N), where N=dose] for dose-response was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Mean temperature of home storage was 4.02°C (log-logistic distribution). The results of risk characterization for S. aureus in natural and processed cheese showed that the mean values for the probability of illness per person per day were higher in processed cheese (mean: 2.24×10(-9); maximum: 7.97×10(-6)) than in natural cheese (mean: 7.84×10(-10); maximum: 2.32×10(-6)). These results indicate that the risk of S. aureus-related foodborne illness due to cheese consumption can be considered low under the present conditions in Korea. In addition, the developed stochastic risk assessment model in this study can be useful in establishing microbial criteria for S. aureus in cheese.

  3. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2016-11-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  4. Food Consumption and Handling Survey for Quantitative Microbiological Consumer Phase Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chardon, Jurgen; Swart, Arno

    2016-07-01

    In the consumer phase of a typical quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), mathematical equations identify data gaps. To acquire useful data we designed a food consumption and food handling survey (2,226 respondents) for QMRA applications that is especially aimed at obtaining quantitative data. For a broad spectrum of food products, the survey covered the following topics: processing status at retail, consumer storage, preparation, and consumption. Questions were designed to facilitate distribution fitting. In the statistical analysis, special attention was given to the selection of the most adequate distribution to describe the data. Bootstrap procedures were used to describe uncertainty. The final result was a coherent quantitative consumer phase food survey and parameter estimates for food handling and consumption practices in The Netherlands, including variation over individuals and uncertainty estimates.

  5. Linkage of DNA Methylation Quantitative Trait Loci to Human Cancer Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Heyn

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Epigenetic regulation and, in particular, DNA methylation have been linked to the underlying genetic sequence. DNA methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTL have been identified through significant associations between the genetic and epigenetic codes in physiological and pathological contexts. We propose that interrogating the interplay between polymorphic alleles and DNA methylation is a powerful method for improving our interpretation of risk alleles identified in genome-wide association studies that otherwise lack mechanistic explanation. We integrated patient cancer risk genotype data and genome-scale DNA methylation profiles of 3,649 primary human tumors, representing 13 solid cancer types. We provide a comprehensive meQTL catalog containing DNA methylation associations for 21% of interrogated cancer risk polymorphisms. Differentially methylated loci harbor previously reported and as-yet-unidentified cancer genes. We suggest that such regulation at the DNA level can provide a considerable amount of new information about the biology of cancer-risk alleles.

  6. Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Geologic Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepinski, James

    2013-09-30

    A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO{sub 2} capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and the potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments

  7. Quantitative assessment of the risk of introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus in Danish dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foddai, Alessandro; Boklund, Anette; Stockmarr, Anders

    2014-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment was carried out to estimate the likelihood of introduc-ing bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in Danish dairy herds per year and per trimester,respectively. The present study gives important information on the impact of risk mitiga-tion measures and sources of uncer......A quantitative risk assessment was carried out to estimate the likelihood of introduc-ing bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in Danish dairy herds per year and per trimester,respectively. The present study gives important information on the impact of risk mitiga-tion measures and sources...... of uncertainty due to lack of data. As suggested in the Agreementon the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement), the OIE Ter-restrial Animal Health Code was followed for a transparent science-based risk assessment.Data from 2010 on imports of live cattle, semen, and embryos, exports...... of live cattle, aswell as use of vaccines were analyzed. Information regarding the application of biosecuritymeasures, by veterinarians and hoof trimmers practicing in Denmark and in other countries,was obtained by contacting several stakeholders, public institutions and experts. Stochas-tic scenario...

  8. Sugar concentration in nectar: a quantitative metric of crop attractiveness for refined pollinator risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knopper, Loren D; Dan, Tereza; Reisig, Dominic D; Johnson, Josephine D; Bowers, Lisa M

    2016-10-01

    Those involved with pollinator risk assessment know that agricultural crops vary in attractiveness to bees. Intuitively, this means that exposure to agricultural pesticides is likely greatest for attractive plants and lowest for unattractive plants. While crop attractiveness in the risk assessment process has been qualitatively remarked on by some authorities, absent is direction on how to refine the process with quantitative metrics of attractiveness. At a high level, attractiveness of crops to bees appears to depend on several key variables, including but not limited to: floral, olfactory, visual and tactile cues; seasonal availability; physical and behavioral characteristics of the bee; plant and nectar rewards. Notwithstanding the complexities and interactions among these variables, sugar content in nectar stands out as a suitable quantitative metric by which to refine pollinator risk assessments for attractiveness. Provided herein is a proposed way to use sugar nectar concentration to adjust the exposure parameter (with what is called a crop attractiveness factor) in the calculation of risk quotients in order to derive crop-specific tier I assessments. This Perspective is meant to invite discussion on incorporating such changes in the risk assessment process. © 2016 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

  9. Evaluating variability and uncertainty separately in microbial quantitative risk assessment using two R packages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Delignette-Muller, Marie Laure

    2010-09-01

    Quantitative risk assessment has emerged as a valuable tool to enhance the scientific basis of regulatory decisions in the food safety domain. This article introduces the use of two new computing resources (R packages) specifically developed to help risk assessors in their projects. The first package, "fitdistrplus", gathers tools for choosing and fitting a parametric univariate distribution to a given dataset. The data may be continuous or discrete. Continuous data may be right-, left- or interval-censored as is frequently obtained with analytical methods, with the possibility of various censoring thresholds within the dataset. Bootstrap procedures then allow the assessor to evaluate and model the uncertainty around the parameters and to transfer this information into a quantitative risk assessment model. The second package, "mc2d", helps to build and study two dimensional (or second-order) Monte-Carlo simulations in which the estimation of variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is separated. This package easily allows the transfer of separated variability and uncertainty along a chain of conditional mathematical and probabilistic models. The usefulness of these packages is illustrated through a risk assessment of hemolytic and uremic syndrome in children linked to the presence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. These R packages are freely available at the Comprehensive R Archive Network (cran.r-project.org).

  10. Quantitative assessment of risk reduction from hand washing with antibacterial soaps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, L L; Rose, J B; Haas, C N; Gerba, C P; Rusin, P A

    2002-01-01

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have estimated that there are 3,713,000 cases of infectious disease associated with day care facilities each year. The objective of this study was to examine the risk reduction achieved from using different soap formulations after diaper changing using a microbial quantitative risk assessment approach. To achieve this, a probability of infection model and an exposure assessment based on micro-organism transfer were used to evaluate the efficacy of different soap formulations in reducing the probability of disease following hand contact with an enteric pathogen. Based on this model, it was determined that the probability of infection ranged from 24/100 to 91/100 for those changing diapers of babies with symptomatic shigellosis who used a control product (soap without an antibacterial ingredient), 22/100 to 91/100 for those who used an antibacterial soap (chlorohexadine 4%), and 15/100 to 90/100 for those who used a triclosan (1.5%) antibacterial soap. Those with asymptomatic shigellosis who used a non-antibacterial control soap had a risk between 49/100,000 and 53/100, those who used the 4% chlorohexadine-containing soap had a risk between 43/100,000 and 51/100, and for those who used a 1.5% triclosan soap had a risk between 21/100,000 and 43/100. The adequate washing of hands after diapering reduces risk and can be further reduced by a factor of 20% by the use of an antibacterial soap. Quantitative risk assessment is a valuable tool in the evaluation of household sanitizing agents and low risk outcomes.

  11. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

  12. Local scale multiple quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation in a densely urbanised area (Brescia, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Lari

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study of the interactions between natural and anthropogenic risks is necessary for quantitative risk assessment in areas affected by active natural processes, high population density and strong economic activities.

    We present a multiple quantitative risk assessment on a 420 km2 high risk area (Brescia and surroundings, Lombardy, Northern Italy, for flood, seismic and industrial accident scenarios. Expected economic annual losses are quantified for each scenario and annual exceedance probability-loss curves are calculated. Uncertainty on the input variables is propagated by means of three different methodologies: Monte-Carlo-Simulation, First Order Second Moment, and point estimate.

    Expected losses calculated by means of the three approaches show similar values for the whole study area, about 64 000 000 € for earthquakes, about 10 000 000 € for floods, and about 3000 € for industrial accidents. Locally, expected losses assume quite different values if calculated with the three different approaches, with differences up to 19%.

    The uncertainties on the expected losses and their propagation, performed with the three methods, are compared and discussed in the paper. In some cases, uncertainty reaches significant values (up to almost 50% of the expected loss. This underlines the necessity of including uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment, especially when it is used as a support for territorial planning and decision making. The method is developed thinking at a possible application at a regional-national scale, on the basis of data available in Italy over the national territory.

  13. A quantitative approach for integrating multiple lines of evidence for the evaluation of environmental health risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerome J. Schleier III

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision analysis often considers multiple lines of evidence during the decision making process. Researchers and government agencies have advocated for quantitative weight-of-evidence approaches in which multiple lines of evidence can be considered when estimating risk. Therefore, we utilized Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to integrate several human-health risk assessment, biomonitoring, and epidemiology studies that have been conducted for two common insecticides (malathion and permethrin used for adult mosquito management to generate an overall estimate of risk quotient (RQ. The utility of the Bayesian inference for risk management is that the estimated risk represents a probability distribution from which the probability of exceeding a threshold can be estimated. The mean RQs after all studies were incorporated were 0.4386, with a variance of 0.0163 for malathion and 0.3281 with a variance of 0.0083 for permethrin. After taking into account all of the evidence available on the risks of ULV insecticides, the probability that malathion or permethrin would exceed a level of concern was less than 0.0001. Bayesian estimates can substantially improve decisions by allowing decision makers to estimate the probability that a risk will exceed a level of concern by considering seemingly disparate lines of evidence.

  14. Quantitative microbial risk assessment combined with hydrodynamic modelling to estimate the public health risk associated with bathing after rainfall events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eregno, Fasil Ejigu; Tryland, Ingun; Tjomsland, Torulv; Myrmel, Mette; Robertson, Lucy; Heistad, Arve

    2016-04-01

    This study investigated the public health risk from exposure to infectious microorganisms at Sandvika recreational beaches, Norway and dose-response relationships by combining hydrodynamic modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). Meteorological and hydrological data were collected to produce a calibrated hydrodynamic model using Escherichia coli as an indicator of faecal contamination. Based on average concentrations of reference pathogens (norovirus, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Giardia and Cryptosporidium) relative to E. coli in Norwegian sewage from previous studies, the hydrodynamic model was used for simulating the concentrations of pathogens at the local beaches during and after a heavy rainfall event, using three different decay rates. The simulated concentrations were used as input for QMRA and the public health risk was estimated as probability of infection from a single exposure of bathers during the three consecutive days after the rainfall event. The level of risk on the first day after the rainfall event was acceptable for the bacterial and parasitic reference pathogens, but high for the viral reference pathogen at all beaches, and severe at Kalvøya-small and Kalvøya-big beaches, supporting the advice of avoiding swimming in the day(s) after heavy rainfall. The study demonstrates the potential of combining discharge-based hydrodynamic modelling with QMRA in the context of bathing water as a tool to evaluate public health risk and support beach management decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenquist, Hanne; Nielsen, N. L.; Sommer, Helle Mølgaard

    2003-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment comprising the elements hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization has been prepared to assess the effect of different mitigation strategies on the number of human cases in Denmark associated with thermophilic...... covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules...... Campylobacter spp. in chickens. To estimate the human exposure to Campylobacter from a chicken meal and the number of human cases associated with this exposure, a mathematical risk model was developed. The model details the spread and transfer of Campylobacter in chickens from slaughter to consumption...

  16. Benchmark dose profiles for joint-action continuous data in quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Roland C; Piegorsch, Walter W

    2013-09-01

    Benchmark analysis is a widely used tool in biomedical and environmental risk assessment. Therein, estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a prespecified benchmark response (BMR) is well understood for the case of an adverse response to a single stimulus. For cases where two agents are studied in tandem, however, the benchmark approach is far less developed. This paper demonstrates how the benchmark modeling paradigm can be expanded from the single-agent setting to joint-action, two-agent studies. Focus is on continuous response outcomes. Extending the single-exposure setting, representations of risk are based on a joint-action dose-response model involving both agents. Based on such a model, the concept of a benchmark profile-a two-dimensional analog of the single-dose BMD at which both agents achieve the specified BMR-is defined for use in quantitative risk characterization and assessment.

  17. Quantitative approaches for health risk assessment of environmental pollutants : estimation of differences in sensitivity, relative potencies, and margins of exposure

    OpenAIRE

    Kalantari, Fereshteh

    2012-01-01

    Historically, quantitative health risk assessment of chemical substances is based on deterministic approaches. For a more realistic and informative health risk assessment, however, the variability and uncertainty inherent in measurements should be taken into consideration. The variability and uncertainty may be assessed by applying probabilistic methods when performing dose-response assessment, exposure assessment and risk characterization. The benchmark dose (BMD) method has b...

  18. Revisiting support optimization at the Driskos tunnel using a quantitative risk approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Connor Langford

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available With the scale and cost of geotechnical engineering projects increasing rapidly over the past few decades, there is a clear need for the careful consideration of calculated risks in design. While risk is typically dealt with subjectively through the use of conservative design parameters, with the advent of reliability-based methods, this no longer needs to be the case. Instead, a quantitative risk approach can be considered that incorporates uncertainty in ground conditions directly into the design process to determine the variable ground response and support loads. This allows for the optimization of support on the basis of both worker safety and economic risk. This paper presents the application of such an approach to review the design of the initial lining system along a section of the Driskos twin tunnels as part of the Egnatia Odos highway in northern Greece. Along this section of tunnel, weak rock masses were encountered as well as high in situ stress conditions, which led to excessive deformations and failure of the as built temporary support. Monitoring data were used to validate the rock mass parameters selected in this area and a risk approach was used to determine, in hindsight, the most appropriate support category with respect to the cost of installation and expected cost of failure. Different construction sequences were also considered in the context of both convenience and risk cost.

  19. A quantitative test of the cultural theory of risk perceptions: comparison with the psychometric paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marris, C; Langford, I H; O'Riordan, T

    1998-10-01

    This paper seeks to compare two frameworks which have been proposed to explain risk perceptions, namely, cultural theory and the psychometric paradigm. A structured questionnaire which incorporated elements from both approaches was administered to 129 residents of Norwich, England. The qualitative risk characteristics generated by the psychometric paradigm explained a far greater proportion of the variance in risk perceptions than cultural biases, though it should be borne in mind that the qualitative characteristics refer directly to risks whereas cultural biases are much more distant variables. Correlations between cultural biases and risk perceptions were very low, but the key point was that each cultural bias was associated with concern about distinct types of risks and that the pattern of responses was compatible with that predicted by cultural theory. The cultural approach also provided indicators for underlying beliefs regarding trust and the environment; beliefs which were consistent within each world view but divergent between them. An important drawback, however, was that the psychometric questionnaire could only allocate 32% of the respondents unequivocally to one of the four cultural types. The rest of the sample expressed several cultural biases simultaneously, or none at all. Cultural biases are therefore probably best interpreted as four extreme world views, and a mixture of qualitative and quantitative research methodologies would generate better insights into who might defend these views in what circumstances, whether there are only four mutually exclusive world views or not, and how these views are related to patterns of social solidarity, and judgments on institutional trust.

  20. Quantitative assessment of the risk of lung cancer associated with occupational exposure to refractory ceramic fibers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moolgavkar, S H; Luebeck, E G; Turim, J; Hanna, L

    1999-08-01

    We present the results of a quantitative assessment of the lung cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to refractory ceramic fibers (RCF). The primary sources of data for our risk assessment were two long-term oncogenicity studies in male Fischer rats conducted to assess the potential pathogenic effects associated with prolonged inhalation of RCF. An interesting feature of the data was the availability of the temporal profile of fiber burden in the lungs of experimental animals. Because of this information, we were able to conduct both exposure-response and dose-response analyses. Our risk assessment was conducted within the framework of a biologically based model for carcinogenesis, the two-stage clonal expansion model, which allows for the explicit incorporation of the concepts of initiation and promotion in the analyses. We found that a model positing that RCF was an initiator had the highest likelihood. We proposed an approach based on biological considerations for the extrapolation of risk to humans. This approach requires estimation of human lung burdens for specific exposure scenarios, which we did by using an extension of a model due to Yu. Our approach acknowledges that the risk associated with exposure to RCF depends on exposure to other lung carcinogens. We present estimates of risk in two populations: (1) a population of nonsmokers and (2) an occupational cohort of steelworkers not exposed to coke oven emissions, a mixed population that includes both smokers and nonsmokers.

  1. Spatial stochastic simulation offers potential as a quantitative method for pest risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafoss, Trond

    2003-08-01

    Pest risk analysis represents an emerging field of risk analysis that evaluates the potential risks of the introduction and establishment of plant pests into a new geographic location and then assesses the management options to reduce those potential risks. Development of new and adapted methodology is required to answer questions concerning pest risk analysis of exotic plant pests. This research describes a new method for predicting the potential establishment and spread of a plant pest into new areas using a case study, Ralstonia solanacearum, a bacterial disease of potato. This method combines current quantitative methodologies, stochastic simulation, and geographic information systems with knowledge of pest biology and environmental data to derive new information about pest establishment potential in a geographical region where a pest had not been introduced. This proposed method extends an existing methodology for matching pest characteristics with environmental conditions by modeling and simulating dissemination behavior of a pest organism. Issues related to integrating spatial variables into risk analysis models are further discussed in this article.

  2. Bioaerosol Deposition to Food Crops near Manure Application: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahne, Michael A; Rogers, Shane W; Holsen, Thomas M; Grimberg, Stefan J; Ramler, Ivan P; Kim, Seungo

    2016-03-01

    Production of both livestock and food crops are central priorities of agriculture; however, food safety concerns arise where these practices intersect. In this study, we investigated the public health risks associated with potential bioaerosol deposition to crops grown in the vicinity of manure application sites. A field sampling campaign at dairy manure application sites supported the emission, transport, and deposition modeling of bioaerosols emitted from these lands following application activities. Results were coupled with a quantitative microbial risk assessment model to estimate the infection risk due to consumption of leafy green vegetable crops grown at various distances downwind from the application area. Inactivation of pathogens ( spp., spp., and O157:H7) on both the manure-amended field and on crops was considered to determine the maximum loading of pathogens to plants with time following application. Overall median one-time infection risks at the time of maximum loading decreased from 1:1300 at 0 m directly downwind from the field to 1:6700 at 100 m and 1:92,000 at 1000 m; peak risks (95th percentiles) were considerably greater (1:18, 1:89, and 1:1200, respectively). Median risk was below 1:10,000 at >160 m downwind. As such, it is recommended that a 160-m setback distance is provided between manure application and nearby leafy green crop production. Additional distance or delay before harvest will provide further protection of public health.

  3. Quantitative autistic trait measurements index background genetic risk for ASD in Hispanic families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Joshua; Constantino, John Nicholas; Zambrana, Katherine; Martin, Eden; Tunc, Ilker; Zhang, Yi; Abbacchi, Anna; Messinger, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have indicated that quantitative autistic traits (QATs) of parents reflect inherited liabilities that may index background genetic risk for clinical autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in their offspring. Moreover, preferential mating for QATs has been observed as a potential factor in concentrating autistic liabilities in some families across generations. Heretofore, intergenerational studies of QATs have focused almost exclusively on Caucasian populations-the present study explored these phenomena in a well-characterized Hispanic population. The present study examined QAT scores in siblings and parents of 83 Hispanic probands meeting research diagnostic criteria for ASD, and 64 non-ASD controls, using the Social Responsiveness Scale-2 (SRS-2). Ancestry of the probands was characterized by genotype, using information from 541,929 single nucleotide polymorphic markers. In families of Hispanic children with an ASD diagnosis, the pattern of quantitative trait correlations observed between ASD-affected children and their first-degree relatives (ICCs on the order of 0.20), between unaffected first-degree relatives in ASD-affected families (sibling/mother ICC = 0.36; sibling/father ICC = 0.53), and between spouses (mother/father ICC = 0.48) were in keeping with the influence of transmitted background genetic risk and strong preferential mating for variation in quantitative autistic trait burden. Results from analysis of ancestry-informative genetic markers among probands in this sample were consistent with that from other Hispanic populations. Quantitative autistic traits represent measurable indices of inherited liability to ASD in Hispanic families. The accumulation of autistic traits occurs within generations, between spouses, and across generations, among Hispanic families affected by ASD. The occurrence of preferential mating for QATs-the magnitude of which may vary across cultures-constitutes a mechanism by which background genetic liability

  4. Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

    2015-02-01

    When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise.

  5. Quantitative Deficits of Preschool Children at Risk for Mathematical Learning Disability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felicia W. Chu

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The study tested the hypothesis that acuity of the potentially inherent approximate number system (ANS contributes to risk of mathematical learning disability (MLD. Sixty-eight (35 boys preschoolers at risk for school failure were assessed on a battery of quantitative tasks, and on intelligence, executive control, preliteracy skills, and parental education. Mathematics achievement scores at the end of one year of preschool indicated that 34 of these children were at high risk for MLD. Relative to the 34 typically achieving children, the at risk children were less accurate on the ANS task, and a one standard deviation deficit on this task resulted in a 2.4 fold increase in the odds of MLD status. The at risk children also had a poor understanding of ordinal relations, and had slower learning of Arabic numerals, number words, and their cardinal values. Poor performance on these tasks resulted in 3.6 to 4.5 fold increases in the odds of MLD status. The results provide some support for the ANS hypothesis but also suggest these deficits are not the primary source of poor mathematics learning.

  6. Quantitative deficits of preschool children at risk for mathematical learning disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Felicia W; Vanmarle, Kristy; Geary, David C

    2013-01-01

    The study tested the hypothesis that acuity of the potentially inherent approximate number system (ANS) contributes to risk of mathematical learning disability (MLD). Sixty-eight (35 boys) preschoolers at risk for school failure were assessed on a battery of quantitative tasks, and on intelligence, executive control, preliteracy skills, and parental education. Mathematics achievement scores at the end of 1 year of preschool indicated that 34 of these children were at high risk for MLD. Relative to the 34 typically achieving children, the at risk children were less accurate on the ANS task, and a one standard deviation deficit on this task resulted in a 2.4-fold increase in the odds of MLD status. The at risk children also had a poor understanding of ordinal relations, and had slower learning of Arabic numerals, number words, and their cardinal values. Poor performance on these tasks resulted in 3.6- to 4.5-fold increases in the odds of MLD status. The results provide some support for the ANS hypothesis but also suggest these deficits are not the primary source of poor mathematics learning.

  7. Hotspot Identification for Shanghai Expressways Using the Quantitative Risk Assessment Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Can; Li, Tienan; Sun, Jian; Chen, Feng

    2016-01-01

    Hotspot identification (HSID) is the first and key step of the expressway safety management process. This study presents a new HSID method using the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) technique. Crashes that are likely to happen for a specific site are treated as the risk. The aggregation of the crash occurrence probability for all exposure vehicles is estimated based on the empirical Bayesian method. As for the consequences of crashes, crashes may not only cause direct losses (e.g., occupant injuries and property damages) but also result in indirect losses. The indirect losses are expressed by the extra delays calculated using the deterministic queuing diagram method. The direct losses and indirect losses are uniformly monetized to be considered as the consequences of this risk. The potential costs of crashes, as a criterion to rank high-risk sites, can be explicitly expressed as the sum of the crash probability for all passing vehicles and the corresponding consequences of crashes. A case study on the urban expressways of Shanghai is presented. The results show that the new QRA method for HSID enables the identification of a set of high-risk sites that truly reveal the potential crash costs to society.

  8. A semi-quantitative approach to GMO risk-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, E Jane

    2011-10-01

    In many countries there are increasing calls for the benefits of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to be considered as well as the risks, and for a risk-benefit analysis to form an integral part of GMO regulatory frameworks. This trend represents a shift away from the strict emphasis on risks, which is encapsulated in the Precautionary Principle that forms the basis for the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and which is reflected in the national legislation of many countries. The introduction of risk-benefit analysis of GMOs would be facilitated if clear methodologies were available to support the analysis. Up to now, methodologies for risk-benefit analysis that would be applicable to the introduction of GMOs have not been well defined. This paper describes a relatively simple semi-quantitative methodology that could be easily applied as a decision support tool, giving particular consideration to the needs of regulators in developing countries where there are limited resources and experience. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the release of an insect resistant maize variety in South Africa as a case study. The applicability of the method in the South African regulatory system is also discussed, as an example of what might be involved in introducing changes into an existing regulatory process.

  9. Quantitative Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation Methodology for a Small Scada Control System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new methodology for obtaining a quick quantitative measurement of the risk reduction achieved when a control system is modified with the intent to improve cyber security defense against external attackers. The proposed methodology employs a directed graph called a compromise graph, where the nodes represent stages of a potential attack and the edges represent the expected time-to-compromise for differing attacker skill levels. Time-to-compromise is modeled as a function of known vulnerabilities and attacker skill level. The methodology was used to calculate risk reduction estimates for a specific SCADA system and for a specific set of control system security remedial actions. Despite an 86% reduction in the total number of vulnerabilities, the estimated time-to-compromise was increased only by about 3 to 30% depending on target and attacker skill level.

  10. Quantitative and Public Perception of Landslide Risk in Badulla, Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunasekera, R.; Bandara, R. M. S.; Mallawatantri, A.; Saito, K.

    2009-04-01

    Landslides are often triggered by intense precipitation and are exacerbated by increased urbanisation and human activity. There is a significant risk of large scale landslides in Sri Lanka and when they do occur, they have the potential to cause devastation to property, lives and livelihoods. There are several high landslide risk areas in seven districts (Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale and Kalutara) in Sri Lanka. These are also some of the poorest areas in the country and consequently the recovery process after catastrophic landslides become more problematic. Therefore landslide risk management is an important concern in poverty reduction strategies. We focused on the district of Badulla, Sri Lanka to evaluate the a) quantitative scientific analysis of landslide risk and b) qualitative public perception of landslides in the area. Combining high resolution, hazard and susceptibility data we quantified the risk of landslides in the area. We also evaluated the public perception of landslides in the area using participatory GIS techniques. The evaluation of public perception of landslide risk has been complemented by use of Landscan data. The framework of the methodology for Landscan data is based on using the second order administrative population data from census, each 30 arc-second cell within the administrative units receives a probability coefficient based on slope, proximity to roads and land cover. Provision of this information from these complementary methods to the regional planners help to strengthen the disaster risk reduction options and improving sustainable land use practices through enhanced public participation in the decision making and governance processes.

  11. Evaluation of skeletal status by quantitative ultrasonometry in postmenopausal women without known risk factors for osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandato, Vincenzo Dario; Sammartino, Annalidia; Di Carlo, Costantino; Tommaselli, Giovanni A; Tauchmanovà, Libuse; D'Elia, Antonio; Nappi, Carmine

    2005-09-01

    The objective of our study was to evaluate bone density in Italian postmenopausal women without clinical risk factors for osteoporosis resident in the Naples area using quantitative ultrasonometry of bone (QUS). Subjects were 1149 Italian postmenopausal women (age: 54.9 +/- 5.0 years (mean +/- standard deviation); range: 45-74 years) resident in the Naples area. Clinical risk factors for osteoporosis resulting in exclusion from the study were family history of osteoporosis, dietary, smoking and alcohol habits, personal history of fractures and/or metabolic diseases. The following QUS parameters were calculated: amplitude-dependent speed of sound (AD-SoS), T-score and Z-score. We found significant inverse correlations between AD-SoS and age (r = - 0.23), time since menopause (r = - 0.25) and body mass index (BMI) (r = - 0.16). The same was observed for T-score. In contrast, Z-score showed a significant positive correlation with age and time since menopause, and a negative correlation with BMI. A T-score suggestive of high risk for osteoporosis (less than -3.2) was found in 1.6% of subjects, while a T-score suggestive of moderate risk for osteoporosis (between -3.2 and -2) was found in 19.3% of patients. In this group of women without clinical risk factors for osteoporosis we found a very low prevalence of QUS results suggesting a high risk for osteoporosis. However, a condition of 'moderate' risk for osteoporosis was present in a remarkable percentage of these women.

  12. Risk Perception as the Quantitative Parameter of Ethics and Responsibility in Disaster Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyuchenko, Yuriy; Movchan, Dmytro

    2014-05-01

    Intensity of impacts of natural disasters is increasing with climate and ecological changes spread. Frequency of disasters is increasing, and recurrence of catastrophes characterizing by essential spatial heterogeneity. Distribution of losses is fundamentally non-linear and reflects complex interrelation of natural, social and environmental factor in the changing world on multi scale range. We faced with new types of risks, which require a comprehensive security concept. Modern understanding of complex security, and complex risk management require analysis of all natural and social phenomena, involvement of all available data, constructing of advanced analytical tools, and transformation of our perception of risk and security issues. Traditional deterministic models used for risk analysis are difficult applicable for analysis of social issues, as well as for analysis of multi scale multi-physics phenomena quantification. Also parametric methods are not absolutely effective because the system analyzed is essentially non-ergodic. The stochastic models of risk analysis are applicable for quantitative analysis of human behavior and risk perception. In framework of risk analysis models the risk perception issues were described. Risk is presented as the superposition of distribution (f(x,y)) and damage functions (p(x,y)): P →δΣ x,yf(x,y)p(x,y). As it was shown risk perception essentially influents to the damage function. Basing on the prospect theory and decision making under uncertainty on cognitive bias and handling of risk, modification of damage function is proposed: p(x,y|α(t)). Modified damage function includes an awareness function α(t), which is the system of risk perception function (rp) and function of education and log-term experience (c) as: α(t) → (c - rp). Education function c(t) describes the trend of education and experience. Risk perception function rp reflects security concept of human behavior, is the basis for prediction of socio-economic and

  13. Modelling bacterial growth in quantitative microbiological risk assessment: is it possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauta, Maarten J

    2002-03-01

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), predictive modelling and HACCP may be used as tools to increase food safety and can be integrated fruitfully for many purposes. However, when QMRA is applied for public health issues like the evaluation of the status of public health, existing predictive models may not be suited to model bacterial growth. In this context, precise quantification of risks is more important than in the context of food manufacturing alone. In this paper, the modular process risk model (MPRM) is briefly introduced as a QMRA modelling framework. This framework can be used to model the transmission of pathogens through any food pathway, by assigning one of six basic processes (modules) to each of the processing steps. Bacterial growth is one of these basic processes. For QMRA, models of bacterial growth need to be expressed in terms of probability, for example to predict the probability that a critical concentration is reached within a certain amount of time. In contrast, available predictive models are developed and validated to produce point estimates of population sizes and therefore do not fit with this requirement. Recent experience from a European risk assessment project is discussed to illustrate some of the problems that may arise when predictive growth models are used in QMRA. It is suggested that a new type of predictive models needs to be developed that incorporates modelling of variability and uncertainty in growth.

  14. Benchmark dose profiles for joint-action quantal data in quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Roland C; Piegorsch, Walter W

    2012-12-01

    Benchmark analysis is a widely used tool in public health risk analysis. Therein, estimation of minimum exposure levels, called Benchmark Doses (BMDs), that induce a prespecified Benchmark Response (BMR) is well understood for the case of an adverse response to a single stimulus. For cases where two agents are studied in tandem, however, the benchmark approach is far less developed. This article demonstrates how the benchmark modeling paradigm can be expanded from the single-dose setting to joint-action, two-agent studies. Focus is on response outcomes expressed as proportions. Extending the single-exposure setting, representations of risk are based on a joint-action dose-response model involving both agents. Based on such a model, the concept of a benchmark profile (BMP) - a two-dimensional analog of the single-dose BMD at which both agents achieve the specified BMR - is defined for use in quantitative risk characterization and assessment. The resulting, joint, low-dose guidelines can improve public health planning and risk regulation when dealing with low-level exposures to combinations of hazardous agents.

  15. Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, E.

    2006-01-01

    One of the important tracks leading to natural risk prevention, disaster mitigation or the reduction of losses due to natural hazards is the vulnerability assessment of an "at-risk" region. The majority of researchers propose to assess vulnerability according to an expert evaluation of several qualitative characteristics, scoring each of them usually using three ratings: low, average, and high. Unlike these investigations, we attempted a quantitative vulnerability assessment using multidimensional statistical methods. Cluster analysis for all 89 Russian regions revealed five different types of region, which are characterized with a single (rarely two) prevailing factor causing increase of vulnerability. These factors are: the sensitivity of the technosphere to unfavorable influences; a "human factor"; a high volume of stored toxic waste that increases possibility of NDs with serious consequences; the low per capita GRP, which determine reduced prevention and protection costs; the heightened liability of regions to natural disasters that can be complicated due to unfavorable social processes. The proposed methods permitted us to find differences in prevailing risk factor (vulnerability factor) for the region types that helps to show in which direction risk management should focus on.

  16. Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Petrova

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the important tracks leading to natural risk prevention, disaster mitigation or the reduction of losses due to natural hazards is the vulnerability assessment of an 'at-risk' region. The majority of researchers propose to assess vulnerability according to an expert evaluation of several qualitative characteristics, scoring each of them usually using three ratings: low, average, and high. Unlike these investigations, we attempted a quantitative vulnerability assessment using multidimensional statistical methods. Cluster analysis for all 89 Russian regions revealed five different types of region, which are characterized with a single (rarely two prevailing factor causing increase of vulnerability. These factors are: the sensitivity of the technosphere to unfavorable influences; a 'human factor'; a high volume of stored toxic waste that increases possibility of NDs with serious consequences; the low per capita GRP, which determine reduced prevention and protection costs; the heightened liability of regions to natural disasters that can be complicated due to unfavorable social processes. The proposed methods permitted us to find differences in prevailing risk factor (vulnerability factor for the region types that helps to show in which direction risk management should focus on.

  17. A Quantitative Risk-Benefit Analysis of Prophylactic Surgery Prior to Extended-Duration Spaceflight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Danielle; Reyes, David; Kerstman, Eric; Walton, Marlei; Antonsen, Erik

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Among otherwise healthy astronauts undertaking deep space missions, the risks for acute appendicitis (AA) and cholecystitis (AC) are not zero. If these conditions were to occur during spaceflight they may require surgery for definitive care. The proposed study quantifies and compares the risks of developing de novo AA and AC in-flight to the surgical risks of prophylactic laparoscopic appendectomy (LA) and cholecystectomy (LC) using NASA's Integrated Medical Model (IMM). METHODS: The IMM is a Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts medical events during spaceflight missions and estimates the impact of these medical events on crew health. In this study, four Design Reference Missions (DRMs) were created to assess the probability of an astronaut developing in-flight small-bowel obstruction (SBO) following prophylactic 1) LA, 2) LC, 3) LA and LC, or 4) neither surgery (SR# S-20160407-351). Model inputs were drawn from a large, population-based 2011 Swedish study that examined the incidence and risks of post-operative SBO over a 5-year follow-up period. The study group included 1,152 patients who underwent LA, and 16,371 who underwent LC. RESULTS: Preliminary results indicate that prophylactic LA may yield higher mission risks than the control DRM. Complete analyses are pending and will be subsequently available. DISCUSSION: The risk versus benefits of prophylactic surgery in astronauts to decrease the probability of acute surgical events during spaceflight has only been qualitatively examined in prior studies. Within the assumptions and limitations of the IMM, this work provides the first quantitative guidance that has previously been lacking to this important question for future deep space exploration missions.

  18. Use of mechanistic simulations as a quantitative risk-ranking tool within the quality by design framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Elena; Toschkoff, Gregor; Sacher, Stephan; Khinast, Johannes G

    2014-11-20

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the use of computer simulations for generating quantitative knowledge as a basis for risk ranking and mechanistic process understanding, as required by ICH Q9 on quality risk management systems. In this specific publication, the main focus is the demonstration of a risk assessment workflow, including a computer simulation for the generation of mechanistic understanding of active tablet coating in a pan coater. Process parameter screening studies are statistically planned under consideration of impacts on a potentially critical quality attribute, i.e., coating mass uniformity. Based on computer simulation data the process failure mode and effects analysis of the risk factors is performed. This results in a quantitative criticality assessment of process parameters and the risk priority evaluation of failure modes. The factor for a quantitative reassessment of the criticality and risk priority is the coefficient of variation, which represents the coating mass uniformity. The major conclusion drawn from this work is a successful demonstration of the integration of computer simulation in the risk management workflow leading to an objective and quantitative risk assessment.

  19. Fatalities in high altitude mountaineering: a review of quantitative risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinbruch, Stephan; Nordby, Karl-Christian

    2013-12-01

    Quantitative estimates for mortality in high altitude mountaineering are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on the heterogeneity of the risk estimates and on confounding. Crude estimates for mortality are on the order of 1/1000 to 40/1000 persons above base camp, for both expedition members and high altitude porters. High altitude porters have mostly a lower risk than expedition members (risk ratio for all Nepalese peaks requiring an expedition permit: 0.73; 95 % confidence interval 0.59-0.89). The summit bid is generally the most dangerous part of an expedition for members, whereas most high altitude porters die during route preparation. On 8000 m peaks, the mortality during descent from summit varies between 4/1000 and 134/1000 summiteers (members plus porters). The risk estimates are confounded by human and environmental factors. Information on confounding by gender and age is contradictory and requires further work. There are indications for safety segregation of men and women, with women being more risk averse than men. Citizenship appears to be a significant confounder. Prior high altitude mountaineering experience in Nepal has no protective effect. Commercial expeditions in the Nepalese Himalayas have a lower mortality than traditional expeditions, though after controlling for confounding, the difference is not statistically significant. The overall mortality is increasing with increasing peak altitude for expedition members but not for high altitude porters. In the Nepalese Himalayas and in Alaska, a significant decrease of mortality with calendar year was observed. A few suggestions for further work are made at the end of the article.

  20. An educationally inspired illustration of two-dimensional Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez, G A; Busschaert, P; Haberbeck, L U; Uyttendaele, M; Geeraerd, A H

    2014-11-03

    Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a structured methodology used to assess the risk involved by ingestion of a pathogen. It applies mathematical models combined with an accurate exploitation of data sets, represented by distributions and - in the case of two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations - their hyperparameters. This research aims to highlight background information, assumptions and truncations of a two-dimensional QMRA and advanced sensitivity analysis. We believe that such a detailed listing is not always clearly presented in actual risk assessment studies, while it is essential to ensure reliable and realistic simulations and interpretations. As a case-study, we are considering the occurrence of listeriosis in smoked fish products in Belgium during the period 2008-2009, using two-dimensional Monte Carlo and two sensitivity analysis methods (Spearman correlation and Sobol sensitivity indices) to estimate the most relevant factors of the final risk estimate. A risk estimate of 0.018% per consumption of contaminated smoked fish by an immunocompromised person was obtained. The final estimate of listeriosis cases (23) is within the actual reported result obtained for the same period and for the same population. Variability on the final risk estimate is determined by the variability regarding (i) consumer refrigerator temperatures, (ii) the reference growth rate of L. monocytogenes, (iii) the minimum growth temperature of L. monocytogenes and (iv) consumer portion size. Variability regarding the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes tends to appear as a determinant of risk variability only when the minimum growth temperature is not included in the sensitivity analysis; when it is included the impact regarding the variability on the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes is disappearing. Uncertainty determinants of the final risk indicated the need of gathering more information on the reference growth rate and the minimum

  1. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment in Occupational Settings Applied to the Airborne Human Adenovirus Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carducci, Annalaura; Donzelli, Gabriele; Cioni, Lorenzo; Verani, Marco

    2016-07-20

    Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) methodology, which has already been applied to drinking water and food safety, may also be applied to risk assessment and management at the workplace. The present study developed a preliminary QMRA model to assess microbial risk that is associated with inhaling bioaerosols that are contaminated with human adenovirus (HAdV). This model has been applied to air contamination data from different occupational settings, including wastewater systems, solid waste landfills, and toilets in healthcare settings and offices, with different exposure times. Virological monitoring showed the presence of HAdVs in all the evaluated settings, thus confirming that HAdV is widespread, but with different average concentrations of the virus. The QMRA results, based on these concentrations, showed that toilets had the highest probability of viral infection, followed by wastewater treatment plants and municipal solid waste landfills. Our QMRA approach in occupational settings is novel, and certain caveats should be considered. Nonetheless, we believe it is worthy of further discussions and investigations.

  2. A probabilistic approach to quantitatively assess the inhalation risk for airborne endotoxin in cotton textile workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan, E-mail: vivianliao@ntu.edu.tw [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, 1 Roosevelt Road, Sec. 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Chou, Wei-Chun; Chio, Chia-Pin; Ju, Yun-Ru; Liao, Chung-Min [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, 1 Roosevelt Road, Sec. 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China)

    2010-05-15

    Endotoxin, a component of gram-negative bacterial cell walls, is a proinflammatory agent that induces local and systemic inflammatory responses in normal subjects which can contribute to the risk of developing asthma and chronic obstructive lung diseases. A probabilistic approach linking models of exposure, internal dosimetry, and health effects were carried out to quantitatively assess the potential inhalation risk of airborne endotoxin for workers in cotton textile plants. Combining empirical data and modeling results, we show that the half-maximum effects of the endotoxin dose (ED50) were estimated to be 3.3 x 10{sup 5} (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-14.7 x 10{sup 5}) endotoxin units (EU) for the blood C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration, 1.1 x 10{sup 5} (95% CI: 0.6-1.7 x 10{sup 5}) EU for the blood polymorphonuclear neutrophil (PMN) count, and 1.5 x 10{sup 5} (95% CI: 0.4-2.5 x 10{sup 5}) EU for the sputum PMN count. Our study offers a risk-management framework for discussing future establishment of limits for respiratory exposure to airborne endotoxin for workers in cotton textile plants.

  3. Applying quantitative benefit-risk analysis to aid regulatory decision making in diagnostic imaging: methods, challenges, and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P

    2014-09-01

    Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  4. Legionellae in engineered systems and use of quantitative microbial risk assessment to predict exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buse, Helen Y; Schoen, Mary E; Ashbolt, Nicholas J

    2012-03-15

    While it is well-established that Legionella are able to colonize engineered water systems, the number of interacting factors contributing to their occurrence, proliferation, and persistence are unclear. This review summarizes current methods used to detect and quantify legionellae as well as the current knowledge of engineered water system characteristics that both favour and promote legionellae growth. Furthermore, the use of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models to predict potentially critical human exposures to legionellae are also discussed. Understanding the conditions favouring Legionella occurrence in engineered systems and their overall ecology (growth in these systems/biofilms, biotic interactions and release) will aid in developing new treatment technologies and/or systems that minimize or eliminate human exposure to potentially pathogenic legionellae.

  5. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research...... however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  6. Hydraulic fracturing in unconventional reservoirs - Identification of hazards and strategies for a quantitative risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmig, R.; Kissinger, A.; Class, H.; Ebigbo, A.

    2012-12-01

    fractured reservoir, fracture propagation, fault zones and their role in regard to fluid migration into shallow aquifers). A quantitative risk assessment which should be the main aim of future work in this field has much higher demands, especially on site specific data, as the estimation of statistical parameter uncertainty requires site specific parameter distributions. There is already ongoing research on risk assessment in related fields like CO2 sequestration. We therefore propose these methodologies to be transferred to risk estimation relating to the use of the hydraulic fracking method, be it for unconventional gas or enhanced geothermal energy production. The overall aim should be to set common and transparent standards for different uses of the subsurface and their involved risks and communicate those to policy makers and stake holders.

  7. Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, P.; van Westen, C. J.; Jetten, V.

    2010-06-01

    A quantitative approach for landslide risk assessment along transportation lines is presented and applied to a road and a railway alignment in the Nilgiri hills in southern India. The method allows estimating direct risk affecting the alignments, vehicles and people, and indirect risk resulting from the disruption of economic activities. The data required for the risk estimation were obtained from historical records. A total of 901 landslides were catalogued initiating from cut slopes along the railway and road alignment. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, run-out distance, etc and their probability of occurrence was obtained using frequency-volume distribution. Hazard, for a given return period, expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometre of cut slopes, was obtained using Gumbel distribution and probability of landslide magnitude. In total 18 specific hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The assessment of the vulnerability of the road and railway line was based on damage records whereas the vulnerability of different types of vehicles and people was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific loss for the alignments (railway line and road), vehicles (train, bus, lorry, car and motorbike) was expressed in monetary value (US), and direct specific loss of life of commuters was expressed in annual probability of death. Indirect specific loss (US) derived from the traffic interruption was evaluated considering alternative driving routes, and includes losses resulting from additional fuel consumption, additional travel cost, loss of income to the local business, and loss of revenue to the railway department. The results indicate that the total loss, including both direct and indirect loss, from 1 to 50 years return period, varies from US 90 840 to US

  8. Quantitative risk assessment of entry of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia through live cattle imported from northwestern Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woube, Yilkal Asfaw; Dibaba, Asseged Bogale; Tameru, Berhanu; Fite, Richard; Nganwa, David; Robnett, Vinaida; Demisse, Amsalu; Habtemariam, Tsegaye

    2015-11-01

    Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a highly contagious bacterial disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies mycoides small colony (SC) bovine biotype (MmmSC). It has been eradicated from many countries; however, the disease persists in many parts of Africa and Asia. CBPP is one of the major trade-restricting diseases of cattle in Ethiopia. In this quantitative risk assessment the OIE concept of zoning was adopted to assess the entry of CBPP into an importing country when up to 280,000 live cattle are exported every year from the northwestern proposed disease free zone (DFZ) of Ethiopia. To estimate the level of risk, a six-tiered risk pathway (scenario tree) was developed, evidences collected and equations generated. The probability of occurrence of the hazard at each node was modelled as a probability distribution using Monte Carlo simulation (@RISK software) at 10,000 iterations to account for uncertainty and variability. The uncertainty and variability of data points surrounding the risk estimate were further quantified by sensitivity analysis. In this study a single animal destined for export from the northwestern DFZ of Ethiopia has a CBPP infection probability of 4.76×10(-6) (95% CI=7.25×10(-8) 1.92×10(-5)). The probability that at least one infected animal enters an importing country in one year is 0.53 (90% CI=0.042-0.97). The expected number of CBPP infected animals exported any given year is 1.28 (95% CI=0.021-5.42). According to the risk estimate, an average of 2.73×10(6) animals (90% CI=10,674-5.9×10(6)) must be exported to get the first infected case. By this account it would, on average, take 10.15 years (90% CI=0.24-23.18) for the first infected animal to be included in the consignment. Sensitivity analysis revealed that prevalence and vaccination had the highest impact on the uncertainty and variability of the overall risk.

  9. Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jaiswal

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A quantitative approach for landslide risk assessment along transportation lines is presented and applied to a road and a railway alignment in the Nilgiri hills in southern India. The method allows estimating direct risk affecting the alignments, vehicles and people, and indirect risk resulting from the disruption of economic activities. The data required for the risk estimation were obtained from historical records. A total of 901 landslides were catalogued initiating from cut slopes along the railway and road alignment. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, run-out distance, etc and their probability of occurrence was obtained using frequency-volume distribution. Hazard, for a given return period, expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometre of cut slopes, was obtained using Gumbel distribution and probability of landslide magnitude. In total 18 specific hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years. The assessment of the vulnerability of the road and railway line was based on damage records whereas the vulnerability of different types of vehicles and people was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific loss for the alignments (railway line and road, vehicles (train, bus, lorry, car and motorbike was expressed in monetary value (US$, and direct specific loss of life of commuters was expressed in annual probability of death. Indirect specific loss (US$ derived from the traffic interruption was evaluated considering alternative driving routes, and includes losses resulting from additional fuel consumption, additional travel cost, loss of income to the local business, and loss of revenue to the railway department. The results indicate that the total loss, including both direct and indirect loss, from 1 to 50 years return period, varies from

  10. Application of Bayesian networks in quantitative risk assessment of subsea blowout preventer operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Baoping; Liu, Yonghong; Liu, Zengkai; Tian, Xiaojie; Zhang, Yanzhen; Ji, Renjie

    2013-07-01

    This article proposes a methodology for the application of Bayesian networks in conducting quantitative risk assessment of operations in offshore oil and gas industry. The method involves translating a flow chart of operations into the Bayesian network directly. The proposed methodology consists of five steps. First, the flow chart is translated into a Bayesian network. Second, the influencing factors of the network nodes are classified. Third, the Bayesian network for each factor is established. Fourth, the entire Bayesian network model is established. Lastly, the Bayesian network model is analyzed. Subsequently, five categories of influencing factors, namely, human, hardware, software, mechanical, and hydraulic, are modeled and then added to the main Bayesian network. The methodology is demonstrated through the evaluation of a case study that shows the probability of failure on demand in closing subsea ram blowout preventer operations. The results show that mechanical and hydraulic factors have the most important effects on operation safety. Software and hardware factors have almost no influence, whereas human factors are in between. The results of the sensitivity analysis agree with the findings of the quantitative analysis. The three-axiom-based analysis partially validates the correctness and rationality of the proposed Bayesian network model.

  11. Fully automated quantitative analysis of breast cancer risk in DCE-MR images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Luan; Hu, Xiaoxin; Gu, Yajia; Li, Qiang

    2015-03-01

    Amount of fibroglandular tissue (FGT) and background parenchymal enhancement (BPE) in dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance (DCE-MR) images are two important indices for breast cancer risk assessment in the clinical practice. The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a fully automated scheme for quantitative analysis of FGT and BPE in DCE-MR images. Our fully automated method consists of three steps, i.e., segmentation of whole breast, fibroglandular tissues, and enhanced fibroglandular tissues. Based on the volume of interest extracted automatically, dynamic programming method was applied in each 2-D slice of a 3-D MR scan to delineate the chest wall and breast skin line for segmenting the whole breast. This step took advantages of the continuity of chest wall and breast skin line across adjacent slices. We then further used fuzzy c-means clustering method with automatic selection of cluster number for segmenting the fibroglandular tissues within the segmented whole breast area. Finally, a statistical method was used to set a threshold based on the estimated noise level for segmenting the enhanced fibroglandular tissues in the subtraction images of pre- and post-contrast MR scans. Based on the segmented whole breast, fibroglandular tissues, and enhanced fibroglandular tissues, FGT and BPE were automatically computed. Preliminary results of technical evaluation and clinical validation showed that our fully automated scheme could obtain good segmentation of the whole breast, fibroglandular tissues, and enhanced fibroglandular tissues to achieve accurate assessment of FGT and BPE for quantitative analysis of breast cancer risk.

  12. Characterizing trabecular bone structure for assessing vertebral fracture risk on volumetric quantitative computed tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagarajan, Mahesh B.; Checefsky, Walter A.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Tsai, Halley; Wang, Xixi; Hobbs, Susan K.; Bauer, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas; Wismüller, Axel

    2015-03-01

    While the proximal femur is preferred for measuring bone mineral density (BMD) in fracture risk estimation, the introduction of volumetric quantitative computed tomography has revealed stronger associations between BMD and spinal fracture status. In this study, we propose to capture properties of trabecular bone structure in spinal vertebrae with advanced second-order statistical features for purposes of fracture risk assessment. For this purpose, axial multi-detector CT (MDCT) images were acquired from 28 spinal vertebrae specimens using a whole-body 256-row CT scanner with a dedicated calibration phantom. A semi-automated method was used to annotate the trabecular compartment in the central vertebral slice with a circular region of interest (ROI) to exclude cortical bone; pixels within were converted to values indicative of BMD. Six second-order statistical features derived from gray-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) and the mean BMD within the ROI were then extracted and used in conjunction with a generalized radial basis functions (GRBF) neural network to predict the failure load of the specimens; true failure load was measured through biomechanical testing. Prediction performance was evaluated with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) metric. The best prediction performance was observed with GLCM feature `correlation' (RMSE = 1.02 ± 0.18), which significantly outperformed all other GLCM features (p GLCM feature correlation also significantly outperformed MDCTmeasured mean BMD (RMSE = 1.11 ± 0.17) (pGLCM-derived texture features.

  13. Safety evaluation of disposable baby diapers using principles of quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Prashant; Lee, Byung-Mu; Liu, Tsung-Yun; Yuhui, Qin; Krause, Edburga; Marsman, Daniel S; Felter, Susan

    2009-01-01

    Baby diapers are complex products consisting of multiple layers of materials, most of which are not in direct contact with the skin. The safety profile of a diaper is determined by the biological properties of individual components and the extent to which the baby is exposed to each component during use. Rigorous evaluation of the toxicological profile and realistic exposure conditions of each material is important to ensure the overall safety of the diaper under normal and foreseeable use conditions. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles may be applied to the safety assessment of diapers and similar products. Exposure to component materials is determined by (1) considering the conditions of product use, (2) the degree to which individual layers of the product are in contact with the skin during use, and (3) the extent to which some components may be extracted by urine and delivered to skin. This assessment of potential exposure is then combined with data from standard safety assessments of components to determine the margin of safety (MOS). This study examined the application of QRA to the safety evaluation of baby diapers, including risk assessments for some diaper ingredient chemicals for which establishment of acceptable and safe exposure levels were demonstrated.

  14. Utilization of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) in risk assessment: Alkylphenols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beck, B.D.; Toole, A.P.; Callahan, B.G.; Siddhanti, S.K. (Gradient Corporation, Cambridge, MA (United States))

    1991-12-01

    Alkylphenols are a class of environmentally pervasive compounds, found both in natural (e.g., crude oils) and in anthropogenic (e.g., wood tar, coal gasification waste) materials. Despite the frequent environmental occurrence of these chemicals, there is a limited toxicity database on alkylphenols. The authors have therefore developed a 'toxicity equivalence approach' for alkylphenols which is based on their ability to inhibit, in a specific manner, the enzyme cyclooxygenase. Enzyme-inhibiting ability for individual alkylphenols can be estimated based on the quantitative structure-activity relationship developed by Dewhirst (1980) and is a function of the free hydroxyl group, electron-donating ring substituents, and hydrophobic aromatic ring substituents. The authors evaluated the toxicological significance of cyclooxygenase inhibition by comparison of the inhibitory capacity of alkylphenols with the inhibitory capacity of acetylsalicylic acid, or aspirin, a compound whose low-level effects are due to cyclooxygenase inhibition. Since nearly complete absorption for alkylphenols and aspirin is predicted, based on estimates of hydrophobicity and fraction of charged molecules at gastrointestinal pHs, risks from alkylphenols can be expressed directly in terms of 'milligram aspirin equivalence,' without correction for absorption differences. They recommend this method for assessing risks of mixtures of alkylphenols, especially for those compounds with no chronic toxicity data.38 references.

  15. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Lung Cancer from Exposure to Metal Ore Dust

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FUHUA; JINGXIPENG; 等

    1992-01-01

    To quantitatively assess risk for lung cancer of metal miners,a historical cohort study was conducted.The cohort consisted of 1113 miners who were employed to underground work for at least 12 months between January 1,1960and December,12,1974,According to the records or dust concentration,a cumulative dust dose of each miner in the cohort was estimated.There wer 162 deaths in total and 45 deaths from lung cancer with a SMR of 2184,The SMR for lung cancer increased from 1019 for those with cumulative dust of less than 500mg-year to 2469 for those with the dose of greater than 4500mg-year.Furthermore,the risk in the highest category of combined cumulative dust dose and cigarette smoking was 46-fold greater than the lowest category of dust dose and smoking.This study showed that there was an exposure-response relationship between metal ore dust and lung cancer,and an interaction of lung cancer between smoking and metal ore dust exposure.

  16. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  17. A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snary, Emma L; Swart, Arno N; Simons, Robin R L; Domingues, Ana Rita Calado; Vigre, Hakan; Evers, Eric G; Hald, Tine; Hill, Andrew A

    2016-03-01

    A farm-to-consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter-pig prevalence and the impact of control measures on the risk of human Salmonella infection. A key consideration during the QMRA development was the characterization of variability between E.U. Member States (MSs), and therefore a generic MS model was developed that accounts for differences in pig production, slaughterhouse practices, and consumption patterns. To demonstrate the parameterization of the model, four case study MSs were selected that illustrate the variability in production of pork meat and products across MSs. For the case study MSs the average probability of illness was estimated to be between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10 million servings given consumption of one of the three product types considered (pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready-to-eat sausages). Further analyses of the farm-to-consumption QMRA suggest that the vast majority of human risk derives from infected pigs with a high concentration of Salmonella in their feces (≥10(4) CFU/g). Therefore, it is concluded that interventions should be focused on either decreasing the level of Salmonella in the feces of infected pigs, the introduction of a control step at the abattoir to reduce the transfer of feces to the exterior of the pig, or a control step to reduce the level of Salmonella on the carcass post-evisceration.

  18. A simplified method for quantitative assessment of the relative health and safety risk of environmental management activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eide, S.A.; Smith, T.H.; Peatross, R.G.; Stepan, I.E.

    1996-09-01

    This report presents a simplified method to assess the health and safety risk of Environmental Management activities of the US Department of Energy (DOE). The method applies to all types of Environmental Management activities including waste management, environmental restoration, and decontamination and decommissioning. The method is particularly useful for planning or tradeoff studies involving multiple conceptual options because it combines rapid evaluation with a quantitative approach. The method is also potentially applicable to risk assessments of activities other than DOE Environmental Management activities if rapid quantitative results are desired.

  19. Stability and reproducibility of semi-quantitative risk assessment methods within the occupational health and safety scope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, F; Melo, R B

    2015-01-01

    In many enterprises the semi-quantitative approach turns out to be the available and most suitable technique to perform a risk assessment. Despite its advantages, we cannot disregard the existing gap in terms of validation of this type of applications. This paper reports a study about risk assessments' reliability, namely both inter-coder (reproducibility) and intra-coder (stability) reliability of the semi-quantitative approach. This study comprised 4 fundamental stages. Data collection relied on free and systematized observations and made use of video recording, documental research, analysis grids and questionnaires specifically developed for this purpose. A set of different analysts were asked to use four semi-quantitative risk assessment methods (in two different moments) to estimate and assess six risks identified in two tasks accomplished to produce Airbags. The Krippendorff's Alpha Coefficient (α K) was the agreement measure selected to evaluate both inter-coder and intra-coder consensus. The preliminary results revealed a general low concordance (α K risk assessment results obtained by individuals with different levels of experience or expertise. This study revealed that the use of the semi-quantitative approach should be done with caution.

  20. Quantitative Metrics and Risk Assessment: The Three Tenets Model of Cybersecurity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Hughes

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Progress in operational cybersecurity has been difficult to demonstrate. In spite of the considerable research and development investments made for more than 30 years, many government, industrial, financial, and consumer information systems continue to be successfully attacked and exploited on a routine basis. One of the main reasons that progress has been so meagre is that most technical cybersecurity solutions that have been proposed to-date have been point solutions that fail to address operational tradeoffs, implementation costs, and consequent adversary adaptations across the full spectrum of vulnerabilities. Furthermore, sound prescriptive security principles previously established, such as the Orange Book, have been difficult to apply given current system complexity and acquisition approaches. To address these issues, the authors have developed threat-based descriptive methodologies to more completely identify system vulnerabilities, to quantify the effectiveness of possible protections against those vulnerabilities, and to evaluate operational consequences and tradeoffs of possible protections. This article begins with a discussion of the tradeoffs among seemingly different system security properties such as confidentiality, integrity, and availability. We develop a quantitative framework for understanding these tradeoffs and the issues that arise when those security properties are all in play within an organization. Once security goals and candidate protections are identified, risk/benefit assessments can be performed using a novel multidisciplinary approach, called “QuERIES.” The article ends with a threat-driven quantitative methodology, called “The Three Tenets”, for identifying vulnerabilities and countermeasures in networked cyber-physical systems. The goal of this article is to offer operational guidance, based on the techniques presented here, for informed decision making about cyber-physical system security.

  1. Estimating distributions out of qualitative and (semi)quantitative microbiological contamination data for use in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busschaert, P; Geeraerd, A H; Uyttendaele, M; Van Impe, J F

    2010-04-15

    A framework using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is used to fit a probability distribution to a set of qualitative (e.g., absence in 25 g), semi-quantitative (e.g., presence in 25 g and absence in 1g) and/or quantitative test results (e.g., 10 CFU/g). Uncertainty about the parameters of the variability distribution is characterized through a non-parametric bootstrapping method. The resulting distribution function can be used as an input for a second order Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative risk assessment. As an illustration, the method is applied to two sets of in silico generated data. It is demonstrated that correct interpretation of data results in an accurate representation of the contamination level distribution. Subsequently, two case studies are analyzed, namely (i) quantitative analyses of Campylobacter spp. in food samples with nondetects, and (ii) combined quantitative, qualitative, semiquantitative analyses and nondetects of Listeria monocytogenes in smoked fish samples. The first of these case studies is also used to illustrate what the influence is of the limit of quantification, measurement error, and the number of samples included in the data set. Application of these techniques offers a way for meta-analysis of the many relevant yet diverse data sets that are available in literature and (inter)national reports of surveillance or baseline surveys, therefore increases the information input of a risk assessment and, by consequence, the correctness of the outcome of the risk assessment.

  2. Quantitative NDI integration with probabilistic fracture mechanics for the assessment of fracture risk in pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurz, Jochen H.; Cioclov, Dragos; Dobmann, Gerd; Boiler, Christian [Fraunhofer Inst. fuer Zerstoerungsfreie Pruefverfahren (IZFP), Saarbruecken (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    In the context of probabilistic paradigm of fracture risk assessment in structural components a computer simulation rationale is presented which has at the base the integration of Quantitative Non-destructive Inspection and Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics. In this study the static failure under static loading is assessed in the format known as Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD). The key concept in the analysis is the stress intensity factor (SIF) which accounts on the geometry of the component and the size of a pre-existent defect of a crack nature. FAD assessments can be made in deterministic sense, which yields the end result in dual terms of fail/not-fail. The fracture risk is evaluated in probabilistic terms. The superposed probabilistic pattern over the deterministic one (in mean sense) is implemented via Monte-Carlo sampling. The probabilistic fracture simulation yields a more informative analysis in terms of probability of failure. An important feature of the PVrisk software is the ability to simulate the influence of the quality and reliability of non-destructive inspection (NDI). It is achieved by integrating, algorithmically. probabilistic FAD analysis and the Probability of Detection (POD). The POD information can only be applied in a probabilistic analysis and leads to a refinement of the assessment. By this means, it can be ascertained the decrease of probability of failure (increase of reliability) when POD-characterized NDI is applied. Therefore, this procedure can be used as a tool for inspection based life time conceptions. In this paper results of sensitivity analyses of the fracture toughness are presented with the aim to outline, in terms of non-failure probabilities, the benefits of applying NDI, in various qualities, in comparison with the situation when NDI is lacking. (orig.)

  3. A quantitative risk assessment tool for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voort, M.M. van der; Klein, A.J.J.; Maaijer, M. de; Berg, A.C. van den; Deursen, J.R. van; Versloot, N.H.A.

    2007-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tool has been developed by TNO for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard. As a first step an industrial plant is divided into groups of modules, defined by their size, shape, and constructional properties. Then the relevant explosi

  4. Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of drought on extreme temperature in eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Ouyang, Wei

    2017-09-01

    Hot extremes may lead to disastrous impacts on human health and agricultural production. Previous studies have revealed the feedback between drought and hot extremes in large regions of eastern China, while quantifying the impact of antecedent drought on hot extremes has been limited. This study aims at quantitatively assessing the risk of extreme temperature conditioned on the antecedent drought condition represented by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) during summer time in eastern China. A copula-based model is proposed to construct the joint probability distribution of extreme temperature and drought based on 6 month SPI (SPI6). Accordingly, the conditional probability distribution is employed to quantify impacts of antecedent dry (and wet) conditions on the exceedance probability of extreme temperature. Results show that the likelihood of extreme temperature exceeding high quantiles is higher given antecedent dry conditions than that given antecedent wet conditions in large regions from southwestern to northeastern China. Specifically, the conditional probability difference of temperature exceeding 80th percentile given SPI6 lower than or equal to -0.5 and SPI6 higher than 0.5 is around 0.2-0.3. The case study of the 2006 summer hot extremes and drought in Sichuan and Chongqing region shows that the conditional return period of extreme temperature conditioned on antecedent drought is around 5-50 years shorter than univariate return period. These results quantify the impact of antecedent drought on subsequent extreme temperature and highlight the important role of antecedent drought in intensifying hot extremes in these regions.

  5. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers - specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mataragas, M.; Zwietering, M.H.; Skandamis, P.N.; Drosinos, E.H.

    2010-01-01

    The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required),

  6. Enhancing understanding and recall of quantitative information about medical risks: a cross-cultural comparison between Germany and Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Galesic, Mirta; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2011-05-01

    In two experiments, we analyzed cross-cultural differences in understanding and recalling information about medical risks in two countries--Germany and Spain--whose students differ substantially in their quantitative literacy according to the 2003 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA; OECD, 2003, 2010). We further investigated whether risk understanding can be enhanced by using visual aids (Experiment 1), and whether different ways of describing risks affect recall (Experiment 2). Results showed that Spanish students are more vulnerable to misunderstanding and forgetting the risk information than their German counterparts. Spanish students, however, benefit more than German students from representing the risk information using ecologically rational formats--which exploit the way information is represented in the human mind. We concluded that our results can have important implications for clinical practice.

  7. Prediction of emergent heart failure death by semi-quantitative triage risk stratification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriette G C Van Spall

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Generic triage risk assessments are widely used in the emergency department (ED, but have not been validated for prediction of short-term risk among patients with acute heart failure (HF. Our objective was to evaluate the Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS for prediction of early death among HF patients. METHODS: We included patients presenting with HF to an ED in Ontario from Apr 2003 to Mar 2007. We used the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and vital statistics databases to examine care and outcomes. RESULTS: Among 68,380 patients (76±12 years, 49.4% men, early mortality was stratified with death rates of 9.9%, 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.5% at 1-day, and 17.2%, 5.9%, 3.8%, and 2.5% at 7-days, for CTAS 1, 2, 3, and 4-5, respectively. Compared to lower acuity (CTAS 4-5 patients, adjusted odds ratios (aOR for 1-day death were 1.32 (95%CI; 0.93-1.88; p = 0.12 for CTAS 3, 2.41 (95%CI; 1.71-3.40; p24 breaths/minute (aOR 1.96, 95%CI; 1.05-3.67; p = 0.034, and arrival by paramedic (aOR 3.52, 95%CI; 1.70-8.02; p = 0.001. While age/sex-adjusted CTAS score provided good discrimination for ED (c-statistic = 0.817 and 1-day (c-statistic = 0.724 death, mortality prediction was improved further after accounting for cardiac and non-cardiac co-morbidities (c-statistics 0.882 and 0.810, respectively; both p<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: A semi-quantitative triage acuity scale assigned at ED presentation and based largely on respiratory factors predicted emergent death among HF patients.

  8. Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship and Risk Analysis of Some Pesticides in the Goat milk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faqir Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The detection and quantification of different pesticides in the goat milk samples collected from different localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan was performed by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The analysis showed that about 50% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean+/-SEM levels (ppm of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.34+/-0.007, 0.063+/-0.002, 0.034+/-0.002 and 0.092+/-0.002, respectively; whereas, methyl parathion was not detected in any of the analyzed samples. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR models were suggested to predict the residues of unknown pesticides in the goat milk using their known physicochemical characteristics including molecular weight (MW, melting point (MP, and log octanol to water partition coefficient (Ko/w in relation to the characteristics such as pH, % fat, specific gravity and refractive index of goat milk. The analysis revealed good correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.985 for goat QSAR model. The coefficients for Ko/w and refractive index for the studied pesticides were higher in goat milk. This suggests that these are better determinants for pesticide residue prediction in the milk of these animals. Based upon the determined pesticide residues and their provisional tolerable daily intakes, risk analysis was also conducted which showed that daily intake levels of pesticide residues including cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin in present study are 2.68, 5.19 and 2.71 times higher, respectively in the goat milk. This intake of pesticide contaminated milk might pose health hazards to humans in this locality.

  9. Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

    2012-09-01

    Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to

  10. Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

    2016-08-01

    Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well.

  11. Integration of quantitative risk assessment in the health impact assessment of the recently amended Hungarian anti-smoking policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Gulis, Gabriel

    2011-01-01

    . In the frame of the Risk Assessment from Policy to Impact Dimension EU project, quantitative assessment of several health outcomes has been integrated in the HIA of the recently prepared anti-smoking policy of Hungary, which had the primary goal of protecting non-smokers from environmental tobacco smoke...... experiences, while outcome assessment calculated measures of disease burden, like attributable death and disability adjusted life years, for a baseline and a predicted situation after the proposed changes take place. The major impact of the proposal was identified to decreases prevalence of active and passive...... population of Hungary. As demonstrated by the results, providing smoke-free public places has an unambiguous positive impact on the health of the public that has been confirmed by the quantified health gain. The demonstrated methodology offers a practicable example for applying quantitative risk assessment...

  12. Quantitative risk assessment integrated with process simulator for a new technology of methanol production plant using recycled CO₂.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Domenico, Julia; Vaz, Carlos André; de Souza, Maurício Bezerra

    2014-06-15

    The use of process simulators can contribute with quantitative risk assessment (QRA) by minimizing expert time and large volume of data, being mandatory in the case of a future plant. This work illustrates the advantages of this association by integrating UNISIM DESIGN simulation and QRA to investigate the acceptability of a new technology of a Methanol Production Plant in a region. The simulated process was based on the hydrogenation of chemically sequestered carbon dioxide, demanding stringent operational conditions (high pressures and temperatures) and involving the production of hazardous materials. The estimation of the consequences was performed using the PHAST software, version 6.51. QRA results were expressed in terms of individual and social risks. Compared to existing tolerance levels, the risks were considered tolerable in nominal conditions of operation of the plant. The use of the simulator in association with the QRA also allowed testing the risk in new operating conditions in order to delimit safe regions for the plant.

  13. [Identification of risk factors for work-related stress in a hospital: a qualitative and quantitative approach].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortese, C G; Gerbaudo, Laura; Manconi, Maria Paola; Violante, B

    2013-01-01

    Italian legislation establishes the obligation for the employer to assess any risks to the safety and health of workers, including those relating to work-related stress (WRS). Several studies have proved the existence of a link between WRS and both individual diseases and organizational results. The research aimed at detecting WRS risk factors in a hospital consisting of 53 departments employing 2334 workers. A qualitative and quantitative approach was adopted divided into six steps: 1) analysis of the hospital indicators; 2) semistructured interviews of the 53 department heads; 3) preparation of a checklist including 42 WRS risk indicators; 4) observation by shadowing of the 53 departments; 5) setting up of 53 focus groups with staff from each department; 6) distribution of the check-list to a representative sample of 747 employees. Data analysis showed a "low" level of WRS risk regarding the hospital as a whole, a "medium" level regarding six transversal indicators and eight departments. Three indicators considered particularly significant were examined in detail: "workplace and ergonomic conditions", "shift work", "interruptions in work flow". The results helped to identifj a series of best practices aimed at reducing WRS risk that are applicable to other health care settings. The qualitative and quantitative approach produced a keen involvement of the employees of the hospital which will positively encourage the real efficacy of the measures taken.

  14. Quantitative data analysis of chemical contamination in the Venice lagoon. A risk management perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miniero, R.; Domenico, A. di [Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Rome (Italy). Dept. Environment and Primary Prevention

    2004-09-15

    A comprehensive risk management for the contaminants present in bottom sediments of the Venice lagoon appears to be complicated by three issues: the past, present, and future influence of human pressure; the obvious sensitivity of a wetland like the lagoon; its extension. The actual situation can be viewed as typical of stressors at regional scale. The relationships between a coastal city and its environment are one of the central question addressed in Chapter 17 of Agenda 21, adopted at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED). In this chapter, the importance of coasts in a life-supporting system and the positive opportunity for sustainable development that coastal areas represent are stressed. However, in industrialized countries a practicable co-existence of environment and development will require mostly regulatory measures to regulate their relationships. The Venice lagoon is one of the leading shellfish production areas in Italy, harvesting several metric tons per year of the clam Tapes philippinarum and the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. A number of studies in recent years have characterized the chemical contamination of matrices like biota and sediment. The chemicals analyzed belong to different families including organic contaminants (such as polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs)), chlorinated pesticides, heavy metals, organometals, etc. The primary contamination sources have been clearly identified with Porto Marghera industrial settlement and the city of Venice with its canals, motorboats, and dense anthropogenic activity. The impacts of all these activities appear to be concentrated in the central basin although the industrial area be situated at the southern boundaries of the northern basin. From the studies on sediments, the following four impact types were identified in the lagoon: industrial, urban, ''not classifiable'', and lagoon background. In this paper, the PCDD

  15. A quantitative microbial risk assessment for meatborne Toxoplasma gondii infection in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opsteegh, Marieke; Prickaerts, Saskia; Frankena, Klaas; Evers, Eric G

    2011-11-01

    Toxoplasma gondii is an important foodborne pathogen, and the cause of a high disease burden due to congenital toxoplasmosis in The Netherlands. The aim of this study was to quantify the relative contribution of sheep, beef and pork products to human T. gondii infections by Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). Bradyzoite concentration and portion size data were used to estimate the bradyzoite number in infected unprocessed portions for human consumption. The reduction factors for salting, freezing and heating as estimated based on published experiments in mice, were subsequently used to estimate the bradyzoite number in processed portions. A dose-response relation for T. gondii infection in mice was used to estimate the human probability of infection due to consumption of these originally infected processed portions. By multiplying these probabilities with the prevalence of T. gondii per livestock species and the number of portions consumed per year, the number of infections per year was calculated for the susceptible Dutch population and the subpopulation of susceptible pregnant women. QMRA results predict high numbers of infections per year with beef as the most important source. Although many uncertainties were present in the data and the number of congenital infections predicted by the model was almost twenty times higher than the number estimated based on the incidence in newborns, the usefulness of the advice to thoroughly heat meat is confirmed by our results. Forty percent of all predicted infections is due to the consumption of unheated meat products, and sensitivity analysis indicates that heating temperature has the strongest influence on the predicted number of infections. The results also demonstrate that, even with a low prevalence of infection in cattle, consumption of beef remains an important source of infection. Developing this QMRA model has helped identify important gaps of knowledge and resulted in the following recommendations for

  16. Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO2 Sequestration in a commerical-scale EOR Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, F.; McPherson, B. J. O. L.; Dai, Z.; Jia, W.; Lee, S. Y.; Ampomah, W.; Viswanathan, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Enhanced Oil Recovery with CO2 (CO2-EOR) is perhaps the most feasible option for geologic CO2 sequestration (GCS), if only due to existing infrastructure and economic opportunities of associated oil production. Probably the most significant source of uncertainty of CO2 storage forecasts is heterogeneity of reservoir properties. Quantification of storage forecast uncertainty is critical for accurate assessment of risks associated with GCS in EOR fields. This study employs a response surface methodology (RSM) to quantify uncertainties of CO2 storage associated with oil production in an active CO2-EOR field. Specifically, the Morrow formation, a clastic reservoir within the Farnsworth EOR Unit (FWU) in Texas, was selected as a case study. Four uncertain parameters (i.e., independent variables) are reservoir permeability, anisotropy ratio of permeability, water-alternating-gas (WAG) time ratio, and initial oil saturation. Cumulative oil production and net CO2 injection are the output dependent variables. A 3-D FWU reservoir model, including a representative 5-spot well pattern, was constructed for CO2-oil-water multiphase flow analysis. A total of 25 permutations of 3-D reservoir simulations were executed using Eclipse simulator. After performing stepwise regression analysis, a series of response surface models of the output variables at each step were constructed and verified using appropriate goodness-of-fit measures. The R2 values are larger than 0.9 and NRMSE values are less than 5% between the simulated and predicted oil production and net CO2 injection, suggesting that the response surface (or proxy) models are sufficient for predicting CO2-EOR system behavior for FWU case. Given the range of uncertainties in the independent variables, the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of dependent variables were estimated using the proxy models. The predicted cumulative oil production and net CO2 injection at 95th percentile after 5 years are about 3.65 times, and 1

  17. Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

    2016-03-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical

  18. A Quantitative Ecological Risk Assessment of the Toxicological Risks from Exxon Valdez Subsurface Oil Residues to Sea Otters at Northern Knight Island, Prince William Sound, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell, Mark A.; Gentile, John H.; Johnson, Charles B.; Garshelis, David L.; Parker, Keith R.

    2010-01-01

    A comprehensive, quantitative risk assessment is presented of the toxicological risks from buried Exxon Valdez subsurface oil residues (SSOR) to a subpopulation of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) at Northern Knight Island (NKI) in Prince William Sound, Alaska, as it has been asserted that this subpopulation of sea otters may be experiencing adverse effects from the SSOR. The central questions in this study are: could the risk to NKI sea otters from exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in SSOR, as characterized in 2001–2003, result in individual health effects, and, if so, could that exposure cause subpopulation-level effects? We follow the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) risk paradigm by: (a) identifying potential routes of exposure to PAHs from SSOR; (b) developing a quantitative simulation model of exposures using the best available scientific information; (c) developing scenarios based on calculated probabilities of sea otter exposures to SSOR; (d) simulating exposures for 500,000 modeled sea otters and extracting the 99.9% quantile most highly exposed individuals; and (e) comparing projected exposures to chronic toxicity reference values. Results indicate that, even under conservative assumptions in the model, maximum-exposed sea otters would not receive a dose of PAHs sufficient to cause any health effects; consequently, no plausible toxicological risk exists from SSOR to the sea otter subpopulation at NKI. PMID:20862194

  19. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers--specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mataragas, M; Zwietering, M H; Skandamis, P N; Drosinos, E H

    2010-07-31

    The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required), support growth of pathogens (high initial pH=6.2-6.4 and water activity=0.98-0.99) and has a relatively long period of storage at chilled temperatures with a shelf life equal to 60 days based on manufacturer's instructions. Therefore, in case of post-process contamination, even with low number of cells, the microorganism is able to reach unacceptable levels at the time of consumption. The aim of this study was to conduct a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) on the risk of L. monocytogenes presence in RTE meat products. This may help risk managers to make decisions and apply control measures with ultimate objective the food safety assurance. Examples are given to illustrate the development of practical risk management strategies based on the results obtained from the QMRA model specifically developed for this pathogen/food product combination.

  20. Spatially quantitative models for vulnerability analyses and resilience measures in flood risk management: Case study Rafina, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Chiari, Michael; Hübl, Johannes; Maris, Fotis; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

    2013-04-01

    We will address spatially quantitative models for vulnerability analyses in flood risk management in the catchment of Rafina, 25 km east of Athens, Greece; and potential measures to reduce damage costs. The evaluation of flood damage losses is relatively advanced. Nevertheless, major problems arise since there are no market prices for the evaluation process available. Moreover, there is particular gap in quantifying the damages and necessary expenditures for the implementation of mitigation measures with respect to flash floods. The key issue is to develop prototypes for assessing flood losses and the impact of mitigation measures on flood resilience by adjusting a vulnerability model and to further develop the method in a Mediterranean region influenced by both, mountain and coastal characteristics of land development. The objective of this study is to create a spatial and temporal analysis of the vulnerability factors based on a method combining spatially explicit loss data, data on the value of exposed elements at risk, and data on flood intensities. In this contribution, a methodology for the development of a flood damage assessment as a function of the process intensity and the degree of loss is presented. It is shown that (1) such relationships for defined object categories are dependent on site-specific and process-specific characteristics, but there is a correlation between process types that have similar characteristics; (2) existing semi-quantitative approaches of vulnerability assessment for elements at risk can be improved based on the proposed quantitative method; and (3) the concept of risk can be enhanced with respect to a standardised and comprehensive implementation by applying the vulnerability functions to be developed within the proposed research. Therefore, loss data were collected from responsible administrative bodies and analysed on an object level. The used model is based on a basin scale approach as well as data on elements at risk exposed

  1. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for spray irrigation of dairy manure based on an empirical fate and transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burch, Tucker R; Spencer, Susan K.; Stokdyk, Joel; Kieke, Burney A; Larson, Rebecca A; Firnstahl, Aaron; Rule, Ana M; Borchardt, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. METHODS: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irri- gation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. RESULTS: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk.

  2. Designing SQCRA as a Software to Semi-quantitative Chemical Risk Assessment in Workplace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Karimi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives : The aim of chemical risk assessment is to identify and evaluate risks originated from chemicals usages. This study aims to design a practical tool for facilitating chemical risk assessment. Methods: The proposed software was derived from chemical risk assessment method which was recommended by Ministry of Human Resources of Malaysia. All of the processes in question are designed in operating system software. Based on some revisions, this software was developed using Visual Basic (VB titled as SQCRA. The developed software was used for chemical risk assessment in Narges Vegetale Oil Company in Shiraz (center of Iran. Result: The output of software showed that the level of risk derived from sulfuric acid, phosphoric acid, aluminum sulphate, nickel catalyst, acetic acid used as a raw material were 2.4, 2.84, 2.3, 3.5 and 2.66, respectively. Moreover, risk rank and proposed control methods for each of these materials were determined. Conclusions : The developed software calculates the health risk level based on the degree of hazard and exposure in shorttime and without using risk matrix and chemical formula. After determining the risk rank, the software proposes the control procedures to reduce occupational exposure.

  3. Meta-analysis for quantitative microbiological risk assessments and benchmarking data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den H.M.W.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2012-01-01

    Meta-analysis studies are increasingly being conducted in the food microbiology area to quantitatively integrate the findings of many individual studies on specific questions or kinetic parameters of interest. Meta-analyses provide global estimates of parameters and quantify their variabilities, and

  4. A quantitative microbial risk assessment for meatborne Toxoplasma gondii infection in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Opsteegh, M.; Prickaerts, S.; Frankena, K.; Evers, E.G.

    2011-01-01

    Toxoplasma gondii is an important foodborne pathogen, and the cause of a high disease burden due to congenital toxoplasmosis in The Netherlands. The aim of this study was to quantify the relative contribution of sheep, beef and pork products to human T. gondii infections by Quantitative Microbial Ri

  5. Behaviour of individual spores of non proteolytic Clostridium botulinum as an element in quantitative risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smelt, J.P.; Stringer, S.C.; Brul, S.

    2013-01-01

    Botulism is a true food poisoning hazard. It is caused by a deadly neurotoxin produced in food by the spore forming organism Clostridium botulinum, which is found in soil all over the world. The frequency of botulism cases is rare, but each year a number of them occur. Ideally a quantitative microbi

  6. Quantitative coronary plaque analysis predicts high-risk plaque morphology on coronary computed tomography angiography: results from the ROMICAT II trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Puchner, Stefan B; Lu, Michael T; Ghemigian, Khristine; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Broersen, Alexander; Pursnani, Amit; Hoffmann, Udo; Ferencik, Maros

    2017-08-12

    Semi-automated software can provide quantitative assessment of atherosclerotic plaques on coronary CT angiography (CTA). The relationship between established qualitative high-risk plaque features and quantitative plaque measurements has not been studied. We analyzed the association between quantitative plaque measurements and qualitative high-risk plaque features on coronary CTA. We included 260 patients with plaque who underwent coronary CTA in the Rule Out Myocardial Infarction/Ischemia Using Computer Assisted Tomography (ROMICAT) II trial. Quantitative plaque assessment and qualitative plaque characterization were performed on a per coronary segment basis. Quantitative coronary plaque measurements included plaque volume, plaque burden, remodeling index, and diameter stenosis. In qualitative analysis, high-risk plaque was present if positive remodeling, low CT attenuation plaque, napkin-ring sign or spotty calcium were detected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between quantitative and qualitative high-risk plaque assessment. Among 888 segments with coronary plaque, high-risk plaque was present in 391 (44.0%) segments by qualitative analysis. In quantitative analysis, segments with high-risk plaque had higher total plaque volume, low CT attenuation plaque volume, plaque burden and remodeling index. Quantitatively assessed low CT attenuation plaque volume (odds ratio 1.12 per 1 mm(3), 95% CI 1.04-1.21), positive remodeling (odds ratio 1.25 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.10-1.41) and plaque burden (odds ratio 1.53 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with high-risk plaque. Quantitative coronary plaque characteristics (low CT attenuation plaque volume, positive remodeling and plaque burden) measured by semi-automated software correlated with qualitative assessment of high-risk plaque features.

  7. Improved cancer risk stratification and diagnosis via quantitative phase microscopy (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Uttam, Shikhar; Pham, Hoa V.; Hartman, Douglas J.

    2017-02-01

    Pathology remains the gold standard for cancer diagnosis and in some cases prognosis, in which trained pathologists examine abnormality in tissue architecture and cell morphology characteristic of cancer cells with a bright-field microscope. The limited resolution of conventional microscope can result in intra-observer variation, missed early-stage cancers, and indeterminate cases that often result in unnecessary invasive procedures in the absence of cancer. Assessment of nanoscale structural characteristics via quantitative phase represents a promising strategy for identifying pre-cancerous or cancerous cells, due to its nanoscale sensitivity to optical path length, simple sample preparation (i.e., label-free) and low cost. I will present the development of quantitative phase microscopy system in transmission and reflection configuration to detect the structural changes in nuclear architecture, not be easily identifiable by conventional pathology. Specifically, we will present the use of transmission-mode quantitative phase imaging to improve diagnostic accuracy of urine cytology and the nuclear dry mass is progressively correlate with negative, atypical, suspicious and positive cytological diagnosis. In a second application, we will present the use of reflection-mode quantitative phase microscopy for depth-resolved nanoscale nuclear architecture mapping (nanoNAM) of clinically prepared formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue sections. We demonstrated that the quantitative phase microscopy system detects a gradual increase in the density alteration of nuclear architecture during malignant transformation in animal models of colon carcinogenesis and in human patients with ulcerative colitis, even in tissue that appears histologically normal according to pathologists. We evaluated the ability of nanoNAM to predict "future" cancer progression in patients with ulcerative colitis.

  8. The EFSA quantitative approach to pest risk assessment – methodological aspects and case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gilioli, G.; Schrader, G.; Grégoire, J.C.; MacLeod, A.; Mosbach-Schulz, O.; Rafoss, T.; Rossi, V.; Urek, G.; Werf, van der W.

    2017-01-01

    A new method for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of risk-reducing options is currently under development by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Plant Health Panel. The draft method has been tested on pests of concern to the European Union (EU). The method is adapt

  9. Quantitative risk assessment of Listeriosis due to consumption of raw milk

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objectives of this study were to estimate the risk of illnesses for raw milk consumers due to L. monocytogenes contamination in raw milk sold by permitted raw milk dealers, and the risk of listeriosis for people on farms who consume raw milk. Three scenarios were evaluated for raw milk sold by ...

  10. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Kriticos, D.J.; Baker, R.H.A.; Battisti, A.; Brunel, S.; Dupin, M.; Eyre, D.; Faccoli, M.; Ilieva, Z.; Kenis, M.; Knight, J.; Reynaud, P.; Yart, A.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no sui

  11. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Salmonella in dry fermented sausage (salami) in Southern Brazil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corbellini, Luis Gustavo; Costa, Eduardo de Freitas; Cardoso, Marisa

    2017-01-01

    Dry fermented sausage (salami) is a very popular ready-to-eat product in Southern Brazil, of which the raw materials can be contaminated with pathogens such as Salmonella. This product can put consumers at risk if a failure occurs during the manufacturing process. To investigate this risk...... model (MPRM) approach. A total of 405 scenarios were tested combining five scenarios for sausage fermentation, three maturation times (12, 15, and 24 days), nine scenarios for prevalence and concentrations of Salmonella on pork carcasses, and three scenarios for clustering of cells (homogeneous...... a decreased risk) was observed when 24 days of maturation is applied and or with good fermentation process. If a realistic heterogeneous distribution of bacteria over the sausages is assumed instead of homogeneous distribution, the estimated risk is larger. Although in general the mean risks found here were...

  12. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE METHODS IN RISK-BASED RELIABILITY ASSESSING UNDER EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Khalaj

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The overall objective of the reliability allocation is to increase the profitability of the operation and optimise the total life cycle cost without losses from failure issues. The methodology, called risk-based reliability (RBR, is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum cost and acceptable risk. This assessment integrates reliability with the smaller losses from failures issues, and so can be used as a tool for decision-making. The approach to maximising reliability should be replaced with the risk-based reliability assessment approach, in which reliability planning, based on risk analysis, minimises the probability of system failure and its consequences. This paper proposes a new methodology for risk-based reliability under epistemic uncertainty, using possibility theory and probability theory. This methodology is used for a case study in order to determine the reliability and risk of production systems when the available data are insufficient, and to help make decisions.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die hoofdoelwit van betroubaarheidstoedeling is die verhoging van winsgewendheid van sisteemgebruik teen die agtergrond van optimum totale leeftydsikluskoste. Die metodologie genaamd “risikogebaseerde betroubaarheid” behels die bepaling van ’n risikoskatting om optimum koste te behaal vir ’n aanvaarbare risiko. Die navorsing stel vervolgens ’n nuwe ontledingsmetode voor vir epistemiese onsekerheid gebaseer op moontlikheids- en waarskynlikheidsleer. ’n Bypassende gevallestudie word aangebied.

  13. Quantitative modeling of operational risk in finance and banking using possibility theory

    CERN Document Server

    Chaudhuri, Arindam

    2016-01-01

    This book offers a comprehensive guide to the modelling of operational risk using possibility theory. It provides a set of methods for measuring operational risks under a certain degree of vagueness and impreciseness, as encountered in real-life data. It shows how possibility theory and indeterminate uncertainty-encompassing degrees of belief can be applied in analysing the risk function, and describes the parametric g-and-h distribution associated with extreme value theory as an interesting candidate in this regard. The book offers a complete assessment of fuzzy methods for determining both value at risk (VaR) and subjective value at risk (SVaR), together with a stability estimation of VaR and SVaR. Based on the simulation studies and case studies reported on here, the possibilistic quantification of risk performs consistently better than the probabilistic model. Risk is evaluated by integrating two fuzzy techniques: the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy extension of techniques for order prefere...

  14. Quantitative Risk Assessment for African Horse Sickness in Live Horses Exported from South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergeant, Evan S; Grewar, John D; Weyer, Camilla T; Guthrie, Alan J

    2016-01-01

    African horse sickness (AHS) is a severe, often fatal, arbovirus infection of horses, transmitted by Culicoides spp. midges. AHS occurs in most of sub-Saharan Africa and is a significant impediment to export of live horses from infected countries, such as South Africa. A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the probability of exporting an undetected AHS-infected horse through a vector protected pre-export quarantine facility, in accordance with OIE recommendations for trade from an infected country. The model also allows for additional risk management measures, including multiple PCR tests prior to and during pre-export quarantine and optionally during post-arrival quarantine, as well as for comparison of risk associated with exports from a demonstrated low-risk area for AHS and an area where AHS is endemic. If 1 million horses were exported from the low-risk area with no post-arrival quarantine we estimate the median number of infected horses to be 5.4 (95% prediction interval 0.5 to 41). This equates to an annual probability of 0.0016 (95% PI: 0.00015 to 0.012) assuming 300 horses exported per year. An additional PCR test while in vector-protected post-arrival quarantine reduced these probabilities by approximately 12-fold. Probabilities for horses exported from an area where AHS is endemic were approximately 15 to 17 times higher than for horses exported from the low-risk area under comparable scenarios. The probability of undetected AHS infection in horses exported from an infected country can be minimised by appropriate risk management measures. The final choice of risk management measures depends on the level of risk acceptable to the importing country.

  15. Using structural neuroimaging to make quantitative predictions of symptom progression in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania eTognin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Neuroimaging holds the promise that it may one day aid the clinical assessment of individual psychiatric patients. However, the vast majority of studies published so far have been based on average differences between groups, which do not permit accurate inferences at the level of the individual. We examined the potential of structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI data for making accurate quantitative predictions about symptoms progression in individuals at ultra-high risk for developing psychosis. Forty people at ultra-high risk for psychosis were scanned using structural MRI at first clinical presentation and assessed over a period of two years using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS. Using a multivariate machine learning method known as relevance vector regression (RVR, we examined the relationship between brain structure at first clinical presentation, characterized in terms of gray matter volume and cortical thickness, and symptom progression at 2 year follow-up. The application of RVR to whole-brain cortical thickness MRI data allowed quantitative prediction of clinical scores with statistically significant accuracy (correlation = 0.34, p = 0.026; Mean Squared-Error = 249.63, p =0.024. This prediction was informed by regions traditionally associated with schizophrenia, namely the right lateral and medial temporal cortex and the left insular cortex. In contrast, the application of RVR to gray matter volume did not allow prediction of symptom progression with statistically significant accuracy. These results provide proof-of-concept that it could be possible to use structural MRI to inform quantitative prediction of symptom progression in individuals at ultra-high risk of developing psychosis. This would enable clinicians to target those individuals at greatest need of preventative interventions thereby resulting in a more efficient use of health care resources.

  16. Using Quantitative Data Analysis Techniques for Bankruptcy Risk Estimation for Corporations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ştefan Daniel ARMEANU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Diversification of methods and techniques for quantification and management of risk has led to the development of many mathematical models, a large part of which focused on measuring bankruptcy risk for businesses. In financial analysis there are many indicators which can be used to assess the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises but to make an assessment it is needed to reduce the number of indicators and this can be achieved through principal component, cluster and discriminant analyses techniques. In this context, the article aims to build a scoring function used to identify bankrupt companies, using a sample of companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange.

  17. Presentation of a method for consequence modeling and quantitative risk assessment of fire and explosion in process industry (Case study: Hydrogen Production Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M J Jafari

    2013-05-01

     .Conclusion: Since the proposed method is applicable in all phases of process or system design, and estimates the risk of fire and explosion by a quantitative, comprehensive and mathematical-based equations approach. It can be used as an alternative method instead of qualitative and semi quantitative methods.

  18. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in well water from a native community of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balderrama-Carmona, Ana Paola; Gortáres-Moroyoqui, Pablo; Álvarez-Valencia, Luis Humberto; Castro-Espinoza, Luciano; Balderas-Cortés, José de Jesús; Mondaca-Fernández, Iram; Chaidez-Quiroz, Cristóbal; Meza-Montenegro, María Mercedes

    2015-01-01

    Cryptosporidium and Giardia are gastrointestinal disease-causing organisms transmitted by the fecal-oral route, zoonotic and prevalent in all socioeconomic segments with greater emphasis in rural communities. The goal of this study was to assess the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis of Potam dwellers consuming drinking water from communal well water. To achieve the goal, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was carried out as follows: (a) identification of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts in well water samples by information collection rule method, (b) assessment of exposure to healthy Potam residents, (c) dose-response modelling, and (d) risk characterization using an exponential model. All well water samples tested were positive for Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The QMRA results indicate a mean of annual risks of 99:100 (0.99) for cryptosporidiosis and 1:1 (1.0) for giardiasis. The outcome of the present study may drive decision-makers to establish an educational and treatment program to reduce the incidence of parasite-borne intestinal infection in the Potam community, and to conduct risk analysis programs in other similar rural communities in Mexico.

  19. Environmental Risks to Public Health in the United Arab Emirates: A Quantitative Assessment and Strategic Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farah, Zeinab S.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Environmental risks to health in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have shifted rapidly from infectious to noninfectious diseases as the nation has developed at an unprecedented rate. In response to public concerns over newly emerging environmental risks, the Environment Agency–Abu Dhabi commissioned a multidisciplinary environmental health strategic planning project. Objectives: In order to develop the environmental health strategic plan, we sought to quantify the illnesses and premature deaths in the UAE attributable to 14 environmental pollutant categories, prioritize these 14 risk factors, and identify interventions. Methods: We estimated the disease burden imposed by each risk factor using an attributable fraction approach, and we prioritized the risks using an empirically tested stakeholder engagement process. We then engaged government personnel, scientists, and other stakeholders to identify interventions. Results: The UAE’s environmental disease burden is low by global standards. Ambient air pollution is the leading contributor to premature mortality [~ 650 annual deaths; 95% confidence interval (CI): 140, 1,400]. Risk factors leading to > 10,000 annual health care facility visits included occupational exposures, indoor air pollution, drinking water contamination, seafood contamination, and ambient air pollution. Among the 14 risks considered, on average, outdoor air pollution was ranked by the stakeholders as the highest priority (mean rank, 1.4; interquartile range, 1–2) and indoor air pollution as the second-highest priority (mean rank 3.3; interquartile range, 2–4). The resulting strategic plan identified 216 potential interventions for reducing environmental risks to health. Conclusions: The strategic planning exercise described here provides a framework for systematically deciding how to invest public funds to maximize expected returns in environmental health, where returns are measured in terms of reductions in a population

  20. Quantitative Assessment of the Association between Genetic Variants in MicroRNAs and Colorectal Cancer Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Xu Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The associations between polymorphisms in microRNAs and the susceptibility of colorectal cancer (CRC were inconsistent in previous studies. This study aims to quantify the strength of the correlation between the four common polymorphisms among microRNAs (hsa-mir-146a rs2910164, hsa-mir-149 rs2292832, hsa-mir-196a2 rs11614913, and hsa-mir-499 rs3746444 and CRC risk. Methods. We searched PubMed, Web of Knowledge, and CNKI to find relevant studies. The combined odds ratio (OR with 95% confidence interval (95% CI was used to estimate the strength of the association in a fixed or random effect model. Results. 15 studies involving 5,486 CRC patients and 7,184 controls were included. Meta-analyses showed that rs3746444 had association with CRC risk in Caucasians (OR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.34–0.95. In the subgroup analysis, we found significant associations between rs2910164 and CRC in hospital based studies (OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.03–1.49. rs2292832 may be a high risk factor of CRC in population based studied (OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.08–1.38. Conclusion. This meta-analysis showed that rs2910164 and rs2292832 may increase the risk of CRC. However, rs11614913 polymorphism may reduce the risk of CRC. rs3746444 may have a decreased risk to CRC in Caucasians.

  1. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers - specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products

    OpenAIRE

    Mataragas, M.; Zwietering, M. H.; Skandamis, P. N.; Drosinos, E. H.

    2010-01-01

    The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required), support growth of pathogens (high initial pH = 6.2–6.4 and water activity = 0.98–0.99) and has a relatively long period of storage at chilled temperatures with a shelf life equal to 60 days based o...

  2. Quantitative risk assessment of human salmonellosis and listeriosis related to the consumption of raw milk in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, Federica; Bonilauri, Paolo; Albonetti, Sabrina; Amatiste, Simonetta; Arrigoni, Norma; Bianchi, Manila; Bertasi, Barbara; Bilei, Stefano; Bolzoni, Giuseppe; Cascone, Giuseppe; Comin, Damiano; Daminelli, Paolo; Decastelli, Lucia; Merialdi, Giuseppe; Mioni, Renzo; Peli, Angelo; Petruzzelli, Annalisa; Tonucci, Franco; Bonerba, Elisabetta; Serraino, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Two quantitative risk assessment (RA) models were developed to describe the risk of salmonellosis and listeriosis linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. Exposure assessment considered the official microbiological records monitoring raw milk samples from vending machines performed by the regional veterinary authorities from 2008 to 2011, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, and consumption preference. Two separate RA models were developed: one for the consumption of boiled milk and the other for the consumption of raw milk. The RA models predicted no human listeriosis cases per year either in the best or worst storage conditions and with or without boiling raw milk, whereas the annual estimated cases of salmonellosis depend on the dose-response relationships used in the model, the milk storage conditions, and consumer behavior in relation to boiling raw milk or not. For example, the estimated salmonellosis cases ranged from no expected cases, assuming that the entire population boiled milk before consumption, to a maximum of 980,128 cases, assuming that the entire population drank raw milk without boiling, in the worst milk storage conditions, and with the lowest dose-response model. The findings of this study clearly show how consumer behavior could affect the probability and number of salmonellosis cases and in general, the risk of illness. Hence, the proposed RA models emphasize yet again that boiling milk before drinking is a simple yet effective tool to protect consumers against the risk of illness inherent in the consumption of raw milk. The models may also offer risk managers a useful tool to identify or implement appropriate measures to control the risk of acquiring foodborne pathogens. Quantification of the risks associated with raw milk consumption is necessary from a public health perspective.

  3. Quantitative health risk assessment of Cryptosporidium in rivers of southern China based on continuous monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Wei; Zhang, Dongqing; Xiao, Shumin; Yu, Jianwei; Yang, Min

    2011-06-01

    The concentrations of Cryptosporidium in the source water of several cities of Zhejiang Province, China were determined to be in the range of 0-17 oocysts/10 L in the rainy season in 2008, with a mean value of 7 oocysts/10 L. Based on the investigation data, comprehensive risk assessment of Cryptosporidium infection was performed by considering different water intake routes as well as water consumption. Intakes of unboiled tapwater (including drinking and tooth-brushing and food and dish washing) and source water (through swimming in rivers) were estimated to be 2.59-25.9 and 0.32-0.74 L/year-person, respectively. The mortality due to Cryptosporidium infection for people in this region, excluding HIV-infected patients, was calculated as 0-0.0146 per 10(5) persons using a conditional probability formula. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used to quantify the risk of Cryptosporidium infection, for which uncertainty was analyzed. For people who consumed conventionally treated water, the DALYs due to Cryptosporidium infection were 6.51 per 10(5) (95% CI: 2.16 × 10(-5)-22.35 × 10(-5)) persons, which were higher than a risk judged acceptable by some (1.97 × 10(-5) DALYs per year), and the risk for those consuming ozone-treated water became 0.0689 × 10(-5) DALYs per year. The major risk of infection resulted from swimming in the river. This study provides a method to establish the risk of Cryptosporidium infection and optimize the scheme for reducing the risk effectively, which is useful for the modification of water quality standards based on cost utility analysis given use of DALYs.

  4. Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jaiswal

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms.

    An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides, while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures.

    For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1 landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2 the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3 landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4 distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve. The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents.

    Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in

  5. Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, P.; van Westen, C. J.; Jetten, V.

    2011-06-01

    A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms. An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides), while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures. For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1) landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2) the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3) landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4) distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve). The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in each magnitude class and the

  6. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A., E-mail: chiu.weihsueh@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States); Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes.

  7. Quantitative Estimation of Risks for Production Unit Based on OSHMS and Process Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyambayar, D.; Koshijima, I.; Eguchi, H.

    2017-06-01

    Three principal elements in the production field of chemical/petrochemical industry are (i) Production Units, (ii) Production Plant Personnel and (iii) Production Support System (computer system introduced for improving productivity). Each principal element has production process resilience, i.e. a capability to restrain disruptive signals occurred in and out of the production field. In each principal element, risk assessment is indispensable for the production field. In a production facility, the occupational safety and health management system (Hereafter, referred to as OSHMS) has been introduced to reduce a risk of accidents and troubles that may occur during production. In OSHMS, a risk assessment is specified to reduce a potential risk in the production facility such as a factory, and PDCA activities are required for a continual improvement of safety production environments. However, there is no clear statement to adopt the OSHMS standard into the production field. This study introduces a metric to estimate the resilience of the production field by using the resilience generated by the production plant personnel and the result of the risk assessment in the production field. A method for evaluating how OSHMS functions are systematically installed in the production field is also discussed based on the resilience of the three principal elements.

  8. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Campylobacter Foodborne Illness in Raw Beef Offal Consumption in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Jiyeon; Lee, Jeeyeon; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Ha, Jimyeong; Yoon, Ki-Sun; Yoon, Yohan

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluated the risk of Campylobacter foodborne illness caused by the intake of raw beef offal in South Korea. The prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in raw beef offal (liver and tripe) was investigated by plating samples on modified charcoal-cefoperazone-deoxycholate agar with Preston enrichment broth. Data were collected about storage temperature and length of storage of raw beef offal, and probabilistic distributions for the data were determined, using @RISK software. Predictive models were developed to describe the fate of Campylobacter in raw beef offal, and the amount and frequency of consumption and dose-response model were surveyed. Subsequently, these data were used to estimate the risk of Campylobacter foodborne illness caused by the intake of raw beef offal. Of 80 beef offal samples, 1 (1.25%) was contaminated with Campylobacter jejuni . Predictive models were used for exposure assessment. An exponential distribution was selected to represent beef offal consumption by people who eat this occasionally, with a mean of 60.2 g and 3.6% monthly consumption frequency. Simulations using @RISK predicted that the probability of Campylobacter foodborne illness per person per month is 1.56 × 10(-5) for home consumption and 1.74 × 10(-5) for restaurant consumption in South Korea, which indicates the risk of Campylobacter foodborne illness by intake of raw beef offal in South Korea.

  9. A quantitative risk assessment model for Vibrio parahaemolyticus in raw oysters in Sao Paulo State, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobrinho, Paulo de S Costa; Destro, Maria T; Franco, Bernadette D G M; Landgraf, Mariza

    2014-06-16

    A risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus associated with raw oysters produced and consumed in São Paulo State was developed. The model was built according to the United States Food and Drug Administration framework for risk assessment. The outcome of the exposure assessment estimated the prevalence and density of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in raw oysters from harvest to consumption. The result of the exposure step was combined with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to estimate the probability of illness. The model predicted that the average risks per serving of raw oysters were 4.7×10(-4), 6.0×10(-4), 4.7×10(-4) and 3.1×10(-4) for spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the most influential variables on the risk of illness were the total density of V. parahaemolyticus at harvest, transport temperature, relative prevalence of pathogenic strains and storage time at retail. Only storage time under refrigeration at retail showed negative correlation with the risk of illness.

  10. Quantitative Analysis of Uncertainty in Financial Risk Assessment of Road Transportation of Wood in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danilo Simões

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainty in road transportation of wood is inherent to its operational costs, to the amount of transported wood, to the traveled distance, to its revenue, and more. Although it is not possible to measure this uncertainty fully, it can be quantified by the investment risk, which is the probability and degree of financial loss. The objective of this study is to quantify the financial risk of the investment in wood transportation through Monte Carlo simulation, which uses realistic situations to estimate the operational cost of vehicles used for road transportation of wood. We quantify these uncertainties by assessing financial risk and building pseudorandom scenarios with the Monte Carlo simulation method, in addition to the Net Present Value techniques, the Modified Internal Rate of Return, and the Profitability Index, all commonly used in financial investment projects. The results show that the estimated operational costs are equivalent to the actual ones, along with the evidence that the cost of fuel, the driver’s manpower, and tires are components that mainly increase the degree of financial risk for an investment project in road transportation of wood. In contrast, optimizing the amount of transported wood and maximizing wood transportation cost have a significant and positive correlation with the volume of transported wood and the average price of wood transportation, leading to a reduction in the degree of financial risk.

  11. Quantitative seismic interpretation: Applying rock physics tools to reduce interpretation risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Chen

    2007-01-01

    @@ Seismic data analysis is one of the key technologies for characterizing reservoirs and monitoring subsurface pore fluids. While there have been great advances in 3D seismic data processing, the quantitative interpretation of the seismic data for rock properties still poses many challenges. This book demonstrates how rock physics can be applied to predict reservoir parameters, such as lithologies and pore fluids, from seismically derived attributes, as well as how the multidisciplinary combination of rock physics models with seismic data, sedimentological information, and stochastic techniques can lead to more powerful results than can be obtained from a single technique.

  12. Presenting quantitative information about decision outcomes: a risk communication primer for patient decision aid developers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trevena, Lyndal J; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Edwards, Adrian; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Galesic, Mirta; Han, Paul K J; King, John; Lawson, Margaret L; Linder, Suzanne K; Lipkus, Isaac; Ozanne, Elissa; Peters, Ellen; Timmermans, Danielle; Woloshin, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients' risk perception and leads to better informed decision making. This paper summarises current "best practices" in communication of evidence-based numeric outcomes for developers of patient decision aids (PtDAs) and other health communication tools. An expert consensus group of fourteen researchers from North America, Europe, and Australasia identified eleven main issues in risk communication. Two experts for each issue wrote a "state of the art" summary of best evidence, drawing on the PtDA, health, psychological, and broader scientific literature. In addition, commonly used terms were defined and a set of guiding principles and key messages derived from the results. The eleven key components of risk communication were: 1) Presenting the chance an event will occur; 2) Presenting changes in numeric outcomes; 3) Outcome estimates for test and screening decisions; 4) Numeric estimates in context and with evaluative labels; 5) Conveying uncertainty; 6) Visual formats; 7) Tailoring estimates; 8) Formats for understanding outcomes over time; 9) Narrative methods for conveying the chance of an event; 10) Important skills for understanding numerical estimates; and 11) Interactive web-based formats. Guiding principles from the evidence summaries advise that risk communication formats should reflect the task required of the user, should always define a relevant reference class (i.e., denominator) over time, should aim to use a consistent format throughout documents, should avoid "1 in x" formats and variable denominators, consider the magnitude of numbers used and the possibility of format bias, and should take into account the numeracy and graph literacy of the audience. A substantial and rapidly expanding evidence base exists for risk

  13. The age-specific quantitative effects of metabolic risk factors on cardiovascular diseases and diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Gitanjali M; Danaei, Goodarz; Farzadfar, Farshad;

    2013-01-01

    The effects of systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum total cholesterol (TC), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been established in epidemiological studies, but consistent estimates of effect sizes by age and sex are not availa......The effects of systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum total cholesterol (TC), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been established in epidemiological studies, but consistent estimates of effect sizes by age and sex...

  14. Quantitative risk assessment of Campylobacter spp. in poultry based meat preparations as one of the factors to support the development of risk-based microbiological criteria in Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uyttendaele, M; Baert, K; Ghafir, Y; Daube, G; De Zutter, L; Herman, L; Dierick, K; Pierard, D; Dubois, J J; Horion, B; Debevere, J

    2006-09-01

    The objective of this study was to do an exercise in risk assessment on Campylobacter spp. for poultry based meat preparations in Belgium. This risk assessment was undertaken on the demand of the competent national authorities as one of the supportive factors to define risk-based microbiological criteria. The quantitative risk assessment model follows a retail to table approach and is divided in different modules. The contamination of raw chicken meat products (CMPs) was represented by a normal distribution of the natural logarithm of the concentration of Campylobacter spp. (ln[Camp]) in raw CMPs based on data from surveillance programs in Belgium. To analyse the relative impact of reducing the risk of campylobacteriosis associated with a decrease in the Campylobacter contamination level in these types of food products, the model was run for different means and standard deviations of the normal distribution of the ln[Camp] in raw CMPs. The limitation in data for the local situation in Belgium and on this particular product and more precisely the semi-quantitative nature of concentration of Campylobacter spp. due to presence/absence testing, was identified as an important information gap. Also the knowledge on the dose-response relationship of Campylobacter spp. was limited, and therefore three different approaches of dose-response modelling were compared. Two approaches (1 and 2), derived from the same study, showed that the reduction of the mean of the distribution representing the ln[Camp] in raw CMPs is the best approach to reduce the risk of Campylobacter spp. in CMPs. However, for the simulated exposure and approach 3 it was observed that the reduction of the standard deviation is the most appropriate technique to lower the risk of campylobacteriosis. Since the dose-response models used in approach 1 and 2 are based on limited data and the reduction of the mean corresponds with a complete shift of the contamination level of raw CMPs, demanding high efforts

  15. Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods: the FAO/WHO approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocourt, J; BenEmbarek, P; Toyofuku, H; Schlundt, J

    2003-04-01

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a very new and unique scientific approach able to link, for the first time, data from food (in the farm-to-fork continuum) and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of the impact of contaminated food on human public health. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have recently launched risk assessment studies of a number of pathogen-food commodity combinations (Salmonella in eggs and in broiler chickens, Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods, Campylobacter in broiler chickens, Vibrio in seafood) to be used to lower the risk associated with these food-borne diseases and ensure fair practices in the international trade of food. The FAO/WHO Listeria risk assessment was undertaken in part to determine how previously developed risk assessments done at the national level could be adapted or expanded to address concerns related to L. monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods at an international level. In addition, after initiation of the risk assessment, the risk assessors were asked by the Codex Committee on Food to consider three specific questions related to ready-to-eat foods in general, which are: (1). estimate the risk for consumers in different susceptible populations groups (elderly, infants, pregnant women and immunocompromised patients) relative to the general population; (2). estimate the risk for L. monocytogenes in foods that support growth and foods that do not support growth under specific storage and shelf-life conditions; (3). estimate the risk from L. monocytogenes in food when the number of organisms ranges from absence in 25 g to 1000 colonies forming units per gram or milliliter, or does not exceed specified levels at the point of consumption. To achieve these goals, new dose-response relationships and exposure assessments for ready-to-eat foods were developed. Preliminary data indicate that eliminating the

  16. Quantitative risk-benefit analysis of fish consumption for women of child-bearing age in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M Y Y; Wong, W W K; Chung, S W C; Tran, C H; Chan, B T P; Ho, Y Y; Xiao, Y

    2014-01-01

    Maternal fish consumption is associated with both risks from methylmercury (MeHg) and beneficial effects from omega-3 fatty acids to the developing foetal brain. This paper assessed the dietary exposure to MeHg of women of child-bearing age (20-49 years) in Hong Kong, and conducted risk-benefit analysis in terms of the effects in children's intelligent quotient (IQ) based on local data and the quantitative method derived by the expert consultation of FAO/WHO. Results showed that average and high consumers consume 450 and 1500 g of fish (including seafood) per week, respectively. About 11% of women of child-bearing age had a dietary exposure to MeHg exceeding the PTWI of 1.6 µg kg(-1) bw. In pregnant women MeHg intake may pose health risks to the developing foetuses. For average consumers, eating any of the 19 types of the most commonly consumed fish and seafood during pregnancy would result in 0.79-5.7 IQ points gain by their children. For high consumers, if they only ate tuna during pregnancy, it would cause 2.3 IQ points reduction in their children. The results indicated that for pregnant women the benefit outweighed the risk associated with eating fish if they consume different varieties of fish in moderation.

  17. Quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in edible vegetable oils marketed in Shandong of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Dafeng; Xin, Chenglong; Li, Wei; Chen, Jindong; Li, Fenghua; Chu, Zunhua; Xiao, Peirui; Shao, Lijun

    2015-09-01

    This work studies on the quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in edible vegetable oils in Shandong, China. The concentrations of 15 PAHs in 242 samples were determined by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection. The results indicated that the mean concentration of 15 PAHs in oil samples was 54.37 μg kg(-1). Low molecular weight PAH compounds were the predominant contamination. Especially, the carcinogenic benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) was detected at a mean concentration of 1.28 μg kg(-1), which was lower than the limit of European Union and China. A preliminary evaluation of human health risk assessment for PAHs was accomplished using BaP toxic equivalency factors and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR). The ILCR values for children, adolescents, adults, and seniors were all larger than 1 × 10(-6), indicating a high potential carcinogenic risk on the dietary exposed populations.

  18. Groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk assessment of porous aquifers to nitrate: Modifying the DRASTIC method using quantitative parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazakis, Nerantzis; Voudouris, Konstantinos S.

    2015-06-01

    In the present study the DRASTIC method was modified to estimate vulnerability and pollution risk of porous aquifers to nitrate. The qualitative parameters of aquifer type, soil and impact of the vadose zone were replaced with the quantitative parameters of aquifer thickness, nitrogen losses from soil and hydraulic resistance. Nitrogen losses from soil were estimated based on climatic, soil and topographic data using indices produced by the GLEAMS model. Additionally, the class range of each parameter and the final index were modified using nitrate concentration correlation with four grading methods (natural breaks, equal interval, quantile and geometrical intervals). For this reason, seventy-seven (77) groundwater samples were collected and analyzed for nitrate. Land uses were added to estimate the pollution risk to nitrates. The two new methods, DRASTIC-PA and DRASTIC-PAN, were then applied in the porous aquifer of Anthemountas basin together with the initial versions of DRASTIC and the LOSN-PN index. The two modified methods displayed the highest correlations with nitrate concentrations. The two new methods provided higher discretisation of the vulnerability and pollution risk, whereas the high variance of the (ANOVA) F statistic confirmed the increase of the average concentrations of NO3-, increasing from low to high between the vulnerability and pollution risk classes. The importance of the parameters of hydraulic resistance of the vadose zone, aquifer thickness and land use was confirmed by single-parameter sensitivity analysis.

  19. Leukemia from dermal exposure to cyclophosphamide among nurses in the Netherlands: Quantitative assessment of the risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fransman, W.; Kager, H.; Meijster, T.; Heederik, D.; Kromhout, H.; Portengen, L.; Blaauboer, B.J.

    2014-01-01

    Several studies showed that oncology nurses are exposed to antineoplastic drugs via the skin during daily activities. Several antineoplastic drugs (including cyclophosphamide) have been classified as carcinogenic to humans. This study aims to assess the leukemia risk of occupational exposure to

  20. Leukemia from dermal exposure to cyclophosphamide among nurses in the Netherlands : Quantitative assessment of the risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fransman, Wouter; Kager, Hans; Meijster, Tim; Heederik, Dick; Kromhout, Hans; Portengen, Lützen; Blaauboer, Bas J.

    2014-01-01

    Several studies showed that oncology nurses are exposed to antineoplastic drugs via the skin during daily activities. Several antineoplastic drugs (including cyclophosphamide) have been classified as carcinogenic to humans. This study aims to assess the leukemia risk of occupational exposure to

  1. Quantitative cancer risk assessment for ethylene oxide inhalation in occupational settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez-Flores, Ciriaco; Sielken, Robert L; Teta, M Jane

    2011-10-01

    The estimated occupational ethylene oxide (EO) exposure concentrations corresponding to specified extra risks are calculated for lymphoid mortality as the most appropriate endpoint, despite the lack of a statistically significant exposure-response relationship. These estimated concentrations are for occupational exposures--40 years of occupational inhalation exposure to EO from age 20 to age 60 years. The estimated occupational inhalation exposure concentrations (ppm) corresponding to specified extra risks of lymphoid mortality to age 70 years in a population of male and female EO workers are based on Cox proportional hazards models of the most recent updated epidemiology cohort mortality studies of EO workers and a standard life-table calculation. An occupational exposure at an inhalation concentration of 2.77 ppm EO is estimated to result in an extra risk of lymphoid mortality of 4 in 10,000 (0.0004) in the combined worker population of men and women from the two studies. The corresponding estimated concentration decreases slightly to 2.27 ppm when based on only the men in the updated cohorts combined. The difference in these estimates reflects the difference between combining all of the available data or focusing on only the men and excluding the women who did not show an increase in lymphoid mortality with EO inhalation exposure. The results of sensitivity analyses using other mortality endpoints (all lymphohematopoietic tissue cancers, leukemia) support the choice of lymphoid tumor mortality for estimation of extra risk.

  2. Quantitative risk analysis of gas explosions in tunnels; probability, effects, and consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerheijm, J.; Voort, M.M. van der; Verreault, J.; Berg, A.C. van den

    2015-01-01

    Tunnel accidents with transports of combustible liquefied gases may lead to explosions. Depending on the substance involved this can be a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE), a Gas Expansion Explosion (GEE) or a gas explosion. Quantification of the risk of these scenarios is important

  3. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen...

  4. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  5. Quantitative risk analysis of gas explosions in tunnels; probability, effects, and consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerheijm, J.; Voort, M.M. van der; Verreault, J.; Berg, A.C. van den

    2015-01-01

    Tunnel accidents with transports of combustible liquefied gases may lead to explosions. Depending on the substance involved this can be a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE), a Gas Expansion Explosion (GEE) or a gas explosion. Quantification of the risk of these scenarios is important

  6. Impact of acquired immunity and dose-dependent probability of illness on quantitative microbial risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Havelaar, A. H.; Swart, A. N.

    2014-01-01

    Dose-response models in microbial risk assessment consider two steps in the process ultimately leading to illness: from exposure to (asymptomatic) infection, and from infection to (symptomatic) illness. Most data and theoretical approaches are available for the exposure-infection step; the infection

  7. Rat Mcs5a is a compound quantitative trait locus with orthologous human loci that associate with breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuelson, David J.; Hesselson, Stephanie E.; Aperavich, Beth A.; Zan, Yunhong; Haag, Jill D.; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Hampton, John M.; Mau, Bob; Chen, Kai-Shun; Baynes, Caroline; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Luben, Robert; Perkins, Barbara; Shah, Mitul; Pharoah, Paul D.; Dunning, Alison M.; Easton, Doug F.; Ponder, Bruce A.; Gould, Michael N.

    2007-01-01

    Breast cancer risk is a polygenic trait. To identify breast cancer modifier alleles that have a high population frequency and low penetrance we used a comparative genomics approach. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) were initially identified by linkage analysis in a rat mammary carcinogenesis model followed by verification in congenic rats carrying the specific QTL allele under study. The Mcs5a locus was identified by fine-mapping Mcs5 in a congenic model. Here we characterize the Mcs5a locus, which when homozygous for the Wky allele, reduces mammary cancer risk by 50%. The Mcs5a locus is a compound QTL with at least two noncoding interacting elements: Mcs5a1 and Mcs5a2. The resistance phenotype is only observed in rats carrying at least one copy of the Wky allele of each element on the same chromosome. Mcs5a1 is located within the ubiquitin ligase Fbxo10, whereas Mcs5a2 includes the 5′ portion of Frmpd1. Resistant congenic rats show a down-regulation of Fbxo10 in the thymus and an up-regulation of Frmpd1 in the spleen. The association of the Mcs5a1 and Mcs5a2 human orthologs with breast cancer was tested in two population-based breast cancer case-control studies (≈12,000 women). The minor alleles of rs6476643 (MCS5A1) and rs2182317 (MCS5A2) were independently associated with breast cancer risk. The minor allele of rs6476643 increases risk, whereas the rs2182317 minor allele decreases risk. Both alleles have a high population frequency and a low penetrance toward breast cancer risk. PMID:17404222

  8. Assumptions in quantitative analyses of health risks of overhead power lines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Jong, A.; Wardekker, J.A.; Van der Sluijs, J.P. [Department of Science, Technology and Society, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 6, 3584 CD Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2012-02-15

    One of the major issues hampering the formulation of uncontested policy decisions on contemporary risks is the presence of uncertainties in various stages of the policy cycle. In literature, different lines are suggested to address the problem of provisional and uncertain evidence. Reflective approaches such as pedigree analysis can be used to explore the quality of evidence when quantification of uncertainties is at stake. One of the issues where the quality of evidence impedes policy making, is the case of electromagnetic fields. In this case, a (statistical) association was suggested with an increased risk on childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of overhead power lines. A biophysical mechanism that could support this association was not found till date however. The Dutch government bases its policy concerning overhead power lines on the precautionary principle. For The Netherlands, previous studies have assessed the potential number of extra cases of childhood leukaemia due to the presence over overhead power lines. However, such a quantification of the health risk of EMF entails a (large) number of assumptions, both prior to and in the calculation chain. In this study, these assumptions were prioritized and critically appraised in an expert elicitation workshop, using a pedigree matrix for characterization of assumptions in assessments. It appeared that assumptions that were regarded to be important in quantifying the health risks show a high value-ladenness. The results show that, given the present state of knowledge, quantification of the health risks of EMF is premature. We consider the current implementation of the precautionary principle by the Dutch government to be adequate.

  9. Development of a software for quantitative evaluation radiotherapy target and organ-at-risk segmentation comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalpathy-Cramer, Jayashree; Awan, Musaddiq; Bedrick, Steven; Rasch, Coen R N; Rosenthal, David I; Fuller, Clifton D

    2014-02-01

    Modern radiotherapy requires accurate region of interest (ROI) inputs for plan optimization and delivery. Target delineation, however, remains operator-dependent and potentially serves as a major source of treatment delivery error. In order to optimize this critical, yet observer-driven process, a flexible web-based platform for individual and cooperative target delineation analysis and instruction was developed in order to meet the following unmet needs: (1) an open-source/open-access platform for automated/semiautomated quantitative interobserver and intraobserver ROI analysis and comparison, (2) a real-time interface for radiation oncology trainee online self-education in ROI definition, and (3) a source for pilot data to develop and validate quality metrics for institutional and cooperative group quality assurance efforts. The resultant software, Target Contour Testing/Instructional Computer Software (TaCTICS), developed using Ruby on Rails, has since been implemented and proven flexible, feasible, and useful in several distinct analytical and research applications.

  10. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Natural and Processed Cheeses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Lee, Jeeyeon; Ha, Jimyeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-08-01

    This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model (r = 1.82×10(-11)) was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were 12.40±19.43 g and 19.46±14.39 g, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g) and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g) were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (α 1 = 1, α 2 = 91; α 1 = 1, α 2 = 309)×uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8) to be -2.35 and -2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were 9.57×10(-14) and 3.58×10(-14), respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness

  11. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinet, Christelle; Kehlenbeck, Hella; Kriticos, Darren J; Baker, Richard H A; Battisti, Andrea; Brunel, Sarah; Dupin, Maxime; Eyre, Dominic; Faccoli, Massimo; Ilieva, Zhenya; Kenis, Marc; Knight, Jon; Reynaud, Philippe; Yart, Annie; van der Werf, Wopke

    2012-01-01

    Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens). Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  12. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christelle Robinet

    Full Text Available Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens. Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  13. Deposit insurance, discipline market, moral hazard and risk in Banking: A quantitative approach

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Jialun

    2009-01-01

    The cross-country evidences from two empirical approaches presented in this paper show that explicit deposit insurance scheme reduces market discipline by decreasing capital ratio and required interest rate, while it increases bank’s risk by increasing loan loss reserve and decreasing liquidity ratio. I also use a dataset of deposit insurance design features to examine how different design features e.g. coverage, management affect deposit interest rates and market discipline. Keywords: Dep...

  14. A quantitative risk assessment for metals in surface water following the application of biosolids to grassland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Rachel; Peyton, Dara; Healy, Mark G; Fenton, Owen; Cummins, Enda

    2016-10-01

    During episodic rainfall events, land application of treated municipal sludge ('biosolids') may give rise to surface runoff of metals, which may be potentially harmful to human health if not fully treated in a water treatment plant (WTP). This study used surface runoff water quality data generated from a field-scale study in which three types of biosolids (anaerobically digested (AD), lime stabilised (LS), and thermally dried (TD)) were spread on micro-plots of land and subjected to three rainfall events at time intervals of 24, 48 and 360h following application. Making the assumption that this water directly entered abstraction waters for a WTP without any grassed buffer zone being present, accounting for stream dilution, and modelling various performance scenarios within the WTP, the aim of this research was to conduct a human health risk assessment of metals (Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, Cd and Cr), which may still be present in drinking water after the WTP. Different dose-response relationships were characterised for the different metals with reference to the lifetime average daily dose (LADD) and the Hazard Quotient (HQ). The results for the LADD show that child exposure concentrations were highest for Cu when the measured surface runoff concentrations from the LS biosolids treatment were used as input into the model. The results for the HQ showed that of all the scenarios considered, Cu had the highest HQ for children. However, values were below the threshold value of risk (HQ<0.01 - no existing risk). Under the conditions monitored, metal concentrations in the biosolids applied to grassland were not considered to result in a risk to human health in surface water systems.

  15. Quantitative assessment of common genetic variants on FOXE1 and differentiated thyroid cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongling Zhu

    Full Text Available Forkhead box E1 encodes the transcription factor FOXE1 (or TTF-2, which together with Homeobox protein NKX2-1, PAX8 and HHEX, are pivotal proteins required for thyroid gland formation, differentiation and function. Recently, genome-wide association studies have identified FOXE1 as a thyroid cancer (TC susceptibility gene in populations of European descent. After that, a number of studies reported that the rs965513, rs1867277, and rs71369530 polymorphism in FOXE1 has been implicated in TC risk. However, the causal variants remain unknown. To derive a more precise estimation of the relationship, a meta-analysis of 9,828 TC cases and 109,995 controls from 14 case-control studies was performed. Overall, significant results were observed for rs965513 (OR=1.71, 95% CI: 1.59-1.85, P<10(-5, rs1867277 (OR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.51-1.78, P<10(-5 and rs71369530 (OR=2.01, 95% CI: 1.66-2.44, P<10(-5 polymorphism. In the subgroup analysis by ethnicity, we found that rs965513 polymorphism confer high risk for Caucasians with per-allele OR of 1.80 (95% CI: 1.69-1.92, P<10(-5 compared to East Asians of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.09-1.67, P=0.006. There was strong evidence of heterogeneity, which largely disappeared after stratification by ethnicity. In the subgroup analysis by sample size, and study design, significantly increased risks were found for the polymorphism. In conclusion, this meta-analysis demonstrated that common variations of FOXE1 are a risk factor associated with increased TC susceptibility.

  16. Uncertainty assessment in quantitative risk analyses. Literature review; Usikkerhedsbeskrivelse i kvantitative risikoanalyser. Litteraturgennemgang

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-06-01

    Literature on uncertainty assessment for risk-analytical purposes has been compiled. Databases Inspec, Compendex, Energy Science and Technology, Chemical Abstracts, Chemical Safety Newsbase, HSEline and MathSci were searched. Roughly 80 references have been selected from these databases and divided according to the following uncertainty classes: 1. Statistical uncertainty; 2. Data uncertainty; 3. Presumption uncertainty; 4. Uncertainty of consequence models; 5. Cognitive uncertainty. (EG)

  17. Hormone Replacement Therapy and Risk of Breast Cancer in Korean Women: A Quantitative Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Jong-Myon; Kim, Eun Hee

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: The epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer incidence by age group in Korean women are unique. This systematic review aimed to investigate the association between hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and breast cancer risk in Korean women. Methods: We searched electronic databases such as KoreaMed, KMbase, KISS, and RISS4U as well as PubMed for publications on Korean breast cancer patients. We also conducted manual searching based on references and citations in potential papers. All of the analytically epidemiologic studies that obtained individual data on HRT exposure and breast cancer occurrence in Korean women were selected. We restricted the inclusion of case-control studies to those that included age-matched controls. Estimates of summary odds ratio (SOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random effect models. Results: One cohort and five case-control studies were finally selected. Based on the heterogeneity that existed among the six studies (I-squared=70.2%), a random effect model was applied. The summary effect size of HRT history from the six articles indicated no statistical significance in breast cancer risk (SOR, 0.983; 95% CI, 0.620 to 1.556). Conclusions: These facts support no significant effect of HRT history in the risk of breast cancer in Korean women. It is necessary to conduct a pooled analysis. PMID:26429288

  18. Quantitative modeling for risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams in southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Akio; Iwahori, Jun'ichiro; Vuddhakul, Varaporn; Charernjiratragul, Wilawan; Vose, David; Osaka, Ken; Shigematsu, Mika; Toyofuku, Hajime; Yamamoto, Shigeki; Nishibuchi, Mitsuaki; Kasuga, Fumiko

    2008-05-10

    A risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams (Anadara granosa) consumed in southern Thailand was conducted. This study estimated the prevalence and concentration of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in bloody clams at harvest and retail stages; and during this process, methods to detect the total and pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus were investigated. Consumption of bloody clams and cooking efficiency were studied using interviews and on-site observation of consumers. A beta-Poisson dose-response model was used to estimate probability of illness applying estimation methods for the most likely parameter values presented by USFDA. Microbial and behavioral data were analyzed by developing a stochastic model and the simulation gave a mean number of times a person would get ill with V. parahaemolyticus by consuming bloody clams at 5.6 x 10(-4)/person/year. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the fraction of people who did not boil the clams properly was the primary factor in increasing risk. This study serves as an example of how a microbiological risk assessment with limited data collection and international cooperation leads to valuable local insight.

  19. Quantitative cancer risk assessment for occupational exposures to asphalt fumes during built-up roofing asphalt (BURA) operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhomberg, Lorenz R; Mayfield, David B; Goodman, Julie E; Butler, Eric L; Nascarella, Marc A; Williams, Daniel R

    2015-01-01

    The International Agency for Research on Cancer qualitatively characterized occupational exposure to oxidized bitumen emissions during roofing as probably carcinogenic to humans (Group 2A). We examine chemistry, exposure, epidemiology and animal toxicity data to explore quantitative risks for roofing workers applying built-up roofing asphalt (BURA). Epidemiology studies do not consistently report elevated risks, and generally do not have sufficient exposure information or adequately control for confounders, precluding their use for dose-response analysis. Dermal carcinogenicity bioassays using mice report increased tumor incidence with single high doses. In order to quantify potential cancer risks, we develop time-to-tumor model methods [consistent with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) dose-response analysis and mixtures guidelines] using the dose-time-response shape of concurrent exposures to benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) as concurrent controls (which had several exposure levels) to infer presumed parallel dose-time-response curves for BURA-fume condensate. We compare EPA relative potency factor approaches, based on observed relative potency of BURA to B[a]P in similar experiments, and direct observation of the inferred BURA dose-time-response (scaled to humans) as means for characterizing a dermal unit risk factor. We apply similar approaches to limited data on asphalt-fume inhalation and respiratory cancers in rats. We also develop a method for adjusting potency estimates for asphalts that vary in composition using measured fluorescence. Overall, the various methods indicate that cancer risks to roofers from both dermal and inhalation exposure to BURA are within a range typically deemed acceptable within regulatory frameworks. The approaches developed may be useful in assessing carcinogenic potency of other complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic compounds.

  20. Epidemiological survey of quantitative ultrasound in risk assessment of falls in middle-aged and elderly people.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling-Chun Ou

    Full Text Available The risk assessment of falls is important, but still unsatisfactory and time-consuming. Our objective was to assess quantitative ultrasound (QUS in the risk assessment of falls. Our study was designed as epidemiological cross-sectional study occurring from March 2009 to February 2010 by community survey at a medical center. The participants were collected from systemic sample of 1,200 community-dwelling people (Male/Female = 524/676 40 years old and over in Yunlin County, Mid-Taiwan. Structural questionnaires including socioeconomic status, living status, smoking and drinking habits, exercise and medical history were completed. Quantitative ultrasound (QUS at the non-dominant distal radial area (QUS-R and the left calcaneal area (QUS-C were measured. The overall prevalence of falls was 19.8%. In men, the independently associated factors for falls were age (OR: 1.04; 95%CI: 1.01~1.06, fracture history (OR: 1.89; 95%CI: 1.12~3.19, osteoarthritis history (OR: 3.66; 95%CI: 1.15~11.64 and speed of sound (OR: 0.99; 95%CI: 0.99~1.00; p<0.05 by QUS-R. In women, the independently associated factors for falls were current drinking (OR: 3.54; 95%CI: 1.35∼9.31 and broadband ultrasound attenuation (OR: 0.98; 95%CI: 0.97~0.99; p<0.01 by QUS-C. The cutoffs at -2.5< T-score<-1 derived using QUS-R (OR: 2.85; 95%CI: 1.64~4.96; p<0.01 in men or T-score ≦-2.5 derived using QUS-C (OR: 2.72; 95%CI: 1.42~5.21; p<0.01 in women showed an independent association with falls. The lowest T-score derived using either QUS-R or QUS-C was also revealed as an independent factor for falls in both men (OR: 2.13; 95%CI: 1.03~4.43; p<0.05 and women (OR: 2.36; 95%CI: 1.13~4.91; p<0.05.Quantitative ultrasounds, measured either at the radial or calcaneal area, are convenient tools by which to assess the risk of falls in middle-aged and elderly people.

  1. Quantitative Assessment of Current Risks to Harlequin Ducks in Prince William Sound, Alaska, from the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell, Mark A.; Gentile, John H.; Parker, Keith R.; Murphy, Stephen M.; Day, Robert H.; Bence, A. Edward; Neff, Jerry M.; Wiens, John A.

    2012-01-01

    Harlequin Ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) were adversely affected by the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, and some have suggested effects continue two decades later. We present an ecological risk assessment evaluating quantitatively whether PWS seaducks continue to be at-risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in residual Exxon Valdez oil. Potential pathways for PAH exposures are identified for initially oiled and never-oiled reference sites. Some potential pathways are implausible (e.g., a seaduck excavating subsurface oil residues), whereas other pathways warrant quantification. We used data on PAH concentrations in PWS prey species, sediments, and seawater collected during 2001–2008 to develop a stochastic individual-based model projecting assimilated doses to seaducks. We simulated exposures to 500,000 individuals in each of eight age/gender classes, capturing the variability within a population of seaducks living in PWS. Doses to the maximum-exposed individuals are ∼400–4,000 times lower than chronic toxicity reference values established using USEPA protocols for seaducks. These exposures are so low that no individual-level effects are plausible, even within a simulated population that is orders-of-magnitude larger than exists in PWS. We conclude that toxicological risks to PWS seaducks from residual Exxon Valdez oil two decades later are essentially non-existent. PMID:23723680

  2. Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction to Assess Response to Treatment of Bacterial Vaginosis and Risk of Preterm Birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramovici, Adi; Lobashevsky, Elena; Cliver, Suzanne P; Edwards, Rodney K; Hauth, John C; Biggio, Joseph R

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) bacterial load measurement is a valid method to assess response to treatment of bacterial vaginosis and risk of preterm birth in pregnant women. Secondary analysis by utilizing stored vaginal samples obtained during a previous randomized controlled trial studying the effect of antibiotics on preterm birth (PTB). All women had risk factors for PTB: (1) positive fetal fibronectin (n=146), (2) bacterial vaginosis (BV) and a prior PTB (n=43), or (3) BV and a prepregnancy weightbacterial loads were correlated with Nugent score and each of its specific bacterial components (all pbacterial load did not differ by treatment group (p=0.87). Posttreatment total bacterial load was significantly lower in the antibiotics group than the placebo group (pbacterial load decreased significantly posttreatment in the antibiotics group (pbacterial loads were not statistically significant. qPCR correlates with Nugent score and demonstrates decreased bacterial load after antibiotic treatment. Therefore, it is a valid method of vaginal flora assessment in pregnant women who are at high risk for PTB. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  3. Caramel color in soft drinks and exposure to 4-methylimidazole: a quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Tyler J S; Wolfson, Julia A; Jiao, Ding; Crupain, Michael J; Rangan, Urvashi; Sapkota, Amir; Bleich, Sara N; Nachman, Keeve E

    2015-01-01

    Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI), a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California's Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day) carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York) in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions) and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L), lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day), lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4) and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years); Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases). 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing exposure to

  4. Caramel Color in Soft Drinks and Exposure to 4-Methylimidazole: A Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Tyler J. S.; Wolfson, Julia A.; Jiao, Ding; Crupain, Michael J.; Rangan, Urvashi; Sapkota, Amir; Bleich, Sara N.; Nachman, Keeve E.

    2015-01-01

    Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI), a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California’s Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day) carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York) in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions) and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L), lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day), lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4) and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years); Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases). 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing exposure

  5. Caramel color in soft drinks and exposure to 4-methylimidazole: a quantitative risk assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler J S Smith

    Full Text Available Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI, a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California's Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L, lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day, lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4 and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years; Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases. 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing

  6. Adenovirus-associated health risks for recreational activities in a multi-use coastal watershed based on site-specific quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Arti; McBride, Graham; Wuertz, Stefan

    2013-10-15

    We used site-specific quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to assess the probability of adenovirus illness for three groups of swimmers: adults with primary contact, children with primary contact, and secondary contact regardless of age. Human enteroviruses and adenoviruses were monitored by qPCR in a multi-use watershed and Adenovirus type 40/41 was detected in 11% of 73 samples, ranging from 147 to 4117 genomes per liter. Enterovirus was detected only once (32 genomes per liter). Seven of eight virus detections occurred when E. coli concentrations were below the single sample maximum water quality criterion for contact recreation, and five of eight virus detections occurred when fecal coliforms were below the corresponding criterion. We employed dose-harmonization to convert viral genome measurements to TCID50 values needed for dose-response curves. The three scenarios considered different amounts of water ingestion and Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for the variability associated with the doses. The mean illness risk in children based on adenovirus measurements obtained over 11 months was estimated to be 3.5%, which is below the 3.6% risk considered tolerable by the current United States EPA recreational criteria for gastrointestinal illnesses (GI). The mean risks of GI illness for adults and secondary contact were 1.9% and 1.0%, respectively. These risks changed appreciably when different distributions were fitted to the data as determined by Monte Carlo simulations. In general, risk was at a maximum for the log-logistic distribution and lowest for the hockey stick distribution in all three selected scenarios. Also, under default assumptions, the risk was lowered considerably when assuming that only a small proportion of Adenovirus 40/41 (3%) was as infectious as Adenovirus type 4, compared to the assumption that all genomes were Adenovirus 4. In conclusion, site-specific QMRA on water-borne adenoviruses in this watershed provided a similar

  7. Quantitative assessment of the influence of paraoxonase 1 activity and coronary heart disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mingsong; Lang, Xilong; Cui, Shitao; Zou, Liangjian; Cao, Jia; Wang, Sheng; Wu, Xintian

    2012-06-01

    Human paraoxonase 1 (PON1) is a calcium-dependent high-density lipoprotein associated ester hydrolase that has attracted considerable attention as a candidate factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) based on its function as a key factor in lipoprotein catabolism pathways. This meta-analysis aimed to clarify the inconsistency of published studies and to establish a comprehensive picture of the relationship between PON1 activity and CHD susceptibility. A systematic search was performed from PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and CNKI databases. Ratio of means (RoM) between case and control and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model. The source of heterogeneity was explored by subgroup analysis and meta-regression. We identified 47 eligible studies including a total of 9853 CHD cases and 11,408 controls. The pooled analysis showed that CHD patients had a 19% lower PON1 activity than did the controls (RoM=0.81; 95% CI: 0.74-0.89, pPON1 activity associated with CHD risk was observed in almost all subgroup analysis according to ethnicity, sample size, study design, mean age of cases, source, and type of control. Decreased PON1 activity may act as a risk factor for the development of CHD. Progressive decrease in serum PON1 activity may exist for an individual with severe disease. However, larger studies using a prospective approach are needed to confirm our results.

  8. Enrichment followed by quantitative PCR both for rapid detection and as a tool for quantitative risk assessment of food-borne thermotolerant campylobacters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josefsen, M H; Jacobsen, N R; Hoorfar, J

    2004-06-01

    As part of a large international project for standardization of PCR (Food-PCR; www.pcr.dk), a multiplex, multiplatform, ready-to-go enrichment followed by a real-time PCR method, including an internal amplification control, was developed for detection of food-borne thermotolerant campylobacters in chickens. Chicken rinse samples were enriched in Bolton broth for 20 h, a simple and rapid (1-h) resin-based DNA extraction was performed, and DNA samples were then tested with two instrument platforms: ABI-PRISM 7700 and RotorGene 3000. The method was validated against an International Standard Organization (ISO)-based culture method by testing low, medium, and high levels of 12 spiked and 66 unspiked, presumably naturally contaminated, chicken rinse samples. In the RotorGene, a positive PCR response was detected in 40 samples of the 66. This was in complete agreement with the enriched ISO culture. The ABI-PRISM 7700 missed one culture-positive sample. Positive samples contained 10(2) to 10(7) CFU/ml after enrichment in Bolton broth. In the enriched samples a detection probability of 95% was obtained at levels of 1 x 10(3) and 2 x 10(3) CFU/ml in the RotorGene and ABI-PRISM, respectively. The amplification efficiency in both platforms was 90%, although the linear range of amplification of purified genomic DNA was 1.5 x 10(1) to 1 x 10(7) (R(2) = 1.00) for the RotorGene and 10(3) to 10(7) (R(2) = 0.99) for the ABI-PRISM. In RotorGene and ABI-PRISM the levels of precision of detection as determined by standard deviation (coefficients of variation) of 6-carboxyfluorescein (FAM) threshold cycle (Ct) values were 0.184 to 0.417 (0.65 to 2.57%) and 0.119 to 0.421 (0.59 to 1.82%), respectively. The results showed a correlation (R(2)) of 0.94 between the target FAM Ct values and CFU per milliliter of enriched naturally contaminated chicken samples, which indicates PCR's additional potential as a tool for quantitative risk assessment. Signal from the internal amplification control

  9. Detection of Legionella by quantitative-polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) for monitoring and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krøjgaard, Louise H.; Krogfelt, Karen A.; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jorgen

    2011-01-01

    Background: Culture and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays for the detection of Legionella were compared on samples from a residential area before and after two interventions. A total of 84 samples were collected from shower hoses and taps as first flush samples and at constant...... temperature. Samples were grouped according to the origin of the sample, a) circulation water b) water from empty apartments c) water from shower hoses. The aims were to investigate the usefulness of qPCR compared to culture for monitoring remedial actions for elimination of Legionella bacteria and as a tool...... for risk assessment. Results: In water collected from the apartments Legionella spp were detected by qPCR in the concentration range from LOQ to 9.6* 10(5)GU/L while L. pneumophila were detected in a range from LOQ to 6.8*10(5) GU/L. By culturing, the legionellae were detected in the range from below...

  10. Specialist antenatal clinics for women at high risk of preterm birth: a systematic review of qualitative and quantitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malouf, Reem; Redshaw, Maggie

    2017-02-02

    Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Women with previous prenatal loss are at higher risk of preterm birth. A specialist antenatal clinic is considered as one approach to improve maternity and pregnancy outcomes. A systematic review of quantitative, qualitative and mixed method studies conducted on women at high risk of preterm birth (PTB). The review primary outcomes were to report on the specialist antenatal clinics effect in preventing or reducing preterm birth, perinatal mortality and morbidity and women's perceptions and experiences of a specialist clinic whether compared or not compared with standard antenatal care. Other secondary maternal, infant and economic outcomes were also determined. A comprehensive search strategy was carried out in English within electronic databases as far back as 1980. The reviewers selected studies, assessed the quality, and extracted data independently. Results were summarized and tabulated. Eleven studies fully met the review inclusion criteria, ten were quantitative design studies and only one was a qualitative design study. No mixed method design study was included in the review. All were published after 1989, seven were conducted in the USA and four in the UK. Results from five good to low quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs), all conducted before 1990, did not illustrate the efficacy of the clinic in reducing preterm birth. Whereas results from more recent low quality cohort studies showed some positive neonatal outcomes. Themes from one good quality qualitative study reflected on the emotional and psychological need to reduce anxiety and stress of women referred to such a clinic. Women expressed their negative emotional responses at being labelled as high risk and positive responses to being assessed and treated in the clinic. Women also reported that their partners were struggling to cope emotionally. Findings from this review were mixed. Evidence from cohort studies

  11. Host cell proteins in biologics development: Identification, quantitation and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xing; Hunter, Alan K; Mozier, Ned M

    2009-06-15

    Host cell proteins (HCPs) are those produced or encoded by the organisms and unrelated to the intended recombinant product. Some are necessary for growth, survival, and normal cellular processing whereas others may be non-essential, simply carried along as baggage. Like the recombinant product, HCPs may also be modified by the host with a number of post-translational modifications. Regardless of the utility, or lack thereof, HCPs are undesirable in the final drug substance. Though commonly present in small quantities (parts per million expressed as nanograms per milligrams of the intended recombinant protein) much effort and cost is expended by industry to remove them. The purpose of this review is to summarize what is of relevance in regards to the biology, the impact of genomics and proteomics on HCP evaluation, the regulatory expectations, analytical approaches, and various methodologies to remove HCPs with bioprocessing. Historical data, bioinformatics approaches and industrial case study examples are provided. Finally, a proposal for a risk assessment tool is provided which brings these facets together and proposes a means for manufacturers to classify and organize a control strategy leading to meaningful product specifications. 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Quantitative ecological risk assessment of inhabitants exposed to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in terrestrial soils of King George Island, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongpiachan, S.; Hattayanone, M.; Pinyakong, O.; Viyakarn, V.; Chavanich, S. A.; Bo, C.; Khumsup, C.; Kittikoon, I.; Hirunyatrakul, P.

    2017-03-01

    This study aims to conduct a quantitative ecological risk assessment of human exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in terrestrial soils of King George Island, Antarctica. Generally, the average PAH concentrations detected in King George Terrestrial Soils (KGS) were appreciably lower than those of World Marine Sediments (WMS) and World Terrestrial Soils (WTS), highlighting the fact that Antarctica is one of the most pristine continents in the world. The total concentrations of twelve probably carcinogenic PAHs (ΣPAHs: a sum of Phe, An, Fluo, Pyr, B[a]A, Chry, B[b]F, B[k]F, B[a]P, Ind, D[a,h]A and B[g,h,i]P) were 3.21 ± 1.62 ng g-1, 5749 ± 4576 ng g-1, and 257,496 ± 291,268 ng g-1, for KGS, WMS and WTS, respectively. In spite of the fact that KGS has extremely low ΣPAHs in comparison with others, the percentage contribution of Phe is exceedingly high with the value of 50%. By assuming that incidental ingestion and dermal contact are two major exposure pathways responsible for the adverse human health effects, the cancer and non-cancer risks from environmental exposure to PAHs were carefully evaluated based on the ;Role of the Baseline Risk Assessment in Superfund Remedy Selection Decisions; memorandum provided by US-EPA. The logarithms of cancer risk levels of PAH contents in KGS varied from -11.1 to -7.18 with an average of -7.96 ± 7.73, which is 1790 times and 80,176 times lower than that of WMS and WTS, respectively. All cancer risk levels of PAH concentrations observed in KGS are significantly (p < 0.001) lower than those of WMS and WTS. Despite the Comandante Ferraz Antarctic Station fire occurred in February 25th, 2012, both the cancer and non-cancer risks of environmental exposure to PAHs were found in ;acceptable level;.

  13. Retrospective analysis of a listeria monocytogenes contamination episode in raw milk goat cheese using quantitative microbial risk assessment tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delhalle, L; Ellouze, M; Yde, M; Clinquart, A; Daube, G; Korsak, N

    2012-12-01

    In 2005, the Belgian authorities reported a Listeria monocytogenes contamination episode in cheese made from raw goat's milk. The presence of an asymptomatic shedder goat in the herd caused this contamination. On the basis of data collected at the time of the episode, a retrospective study was performed using an exposure assessment model covering the production chain from the milking of goats up to delivery of cheese to the market. Predictive microbiology models were used to simulate the growth of L. monocytogenes during the cheese process in relation with temperature, pH, and water activity. The model showed significant growth of L. monocytogenes during chilling and storage of the milk collected the day before the cheese production (median increase of 2.2 log CFU/ml) and during the addition of starter and rennet to milk (median increase of 1.2 log CFU/ml). The L. monocytogenes concentration in the fresh unripened cheese was estimated to be 3.8 log CFU/g (median). This result is consistent with the number of L. monocytogenes in the fresh cheese (3.6 log CFU/g) reported during the cheese contamination episode. A variance-based method sensitivity analysis identified the most important factors impacting the cheese contamination, and a scenario analysis then evaluated several options for risk mitigation. Thus, by using quantitative microbial risk assessment tools, this study provides reliable information to identify and control critical steps in a local production chain of cheese made from raw goat's milk.

  14. Risks to birds traded for African traditional medicine: a quantitative assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivienne L Williams

    Full Text Available Few regional or continent-wide assessments of bird use for traditional medicine have been attempted anywhere in the world. Africa has the highest known diversity of bird species used for this purpose. This study assesses the vulnerability of 354 bird species used for traditional medicine in 25 African countries, from 205 genera, 70 families, and 25 orders. The orders most represented were Passeriformes (107 species, Falconiformes (45 species, and Coraciiformes (24 species, and the families Accipitridae (37 species, Ardeidae (15 species, and Bucerotidae (12 species. The Barn owl (Tyto alba was the most widely sold species (seven countries. The similarity of avifaunal orders traded is high (analogous to "morphospecies", and using Sørensen's index, which suggests opportunities for a common understanding of cultural factors driving demand. The highest similarity was between bird orders sold in markets of Benin vs. Burkina Faso (90%, but even bird orders sold in two geographically separated countries (Benin vs. South Africa and Nigeria vs. South Africa were 87% and 81% similar, respectively. Rabinowitz's "7 forms of rarity" model, used to group species according to commonness or rarity, indicated that 24% of traded bird species are very common, locally abundant in several habitats, and occur over a large geographical area, but 10% are rare, occur in low numbers in specific habitats, and over a small geographical area. The order with the highest proportion of rare species was the Musophagiformes. An analysis of species mass (as a proxy for size indicated that large and/or conspicuous species tend to be targeted by harvesters for the traditional medicine trade. Furthermore, based on cluster analyses for species groups of similar risk, vultures, hornbills, and other large avifauna, such as bustards, are most threatened by selective harvesting and should be prioritised for conservation action.

  15. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) shows increased public health risk associated with exposure to river water under conditions of riverbed sediment resuspension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abia, Akebe Luther King; Ubomba-Jaswa, Eunice; Genthe, Bettina; Momba, Maggy Ndombo Benteke

    2016-10-01

    Although higher microbial concentrations have been reported in sediments than in the overlying water column, most quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) studies have not clearly indicated the contribution of sediment-borne pathogens to estimated risks. Thus, the present study aimed at determining the public health risk associated with exposure to pathogenic bacteria in polluted river water under undisturbed conditions and conditions of sediment resuspension in the Apies River, Gauteng, South Africa. Microbial pathogens were isolated and identified using culture and molecular methods. The beta-Poisson dose-response model was used to estimate the probability of infection (Pi) with the various pathogens, following accidental/intentional ingestion of 1mL or 100mL (or 50mL) of untreated river water. Mean wet season Escherichia coli counts ranged between 5.8E+01 and 8.8E+04MPN/100mL (water column) and between 2.40E+03 and 1.28E+05MPN/100mL (sediments). Mean dry season E. coli counts ranged between 5.11E+00 and 3.40E+03MPN/100mL (water column) and between 5.09E+00 and 6.30E+03MPN/100mL (sediments). Overall (water and sediments) Vibrio cholerae was the most detected pathogen (58.8%) followed by Salmonella spp. (23.9%) and Shigella (10.1%). Ingestion of 1mL of river water could lead to 0%-4% and 1%-74% Pi with E. coli during the dry and wet season, respectively. During the dry season, the Pi with V. cholerae, Salmonella spp. and Shigella spp. were 0%-1.39%, 0%-4.11% and 0%-0.16% respectively, depending on volume of water ingested. The risks of infections with all microorganisms increased during the wet season. A 2-log increase in water E. coli count following sediments disturbance led to approximately 10 times higher Pi with E. coli than when sediments were undisturbed. Therefore, the use of the untreated water from the Apies River for drinking, household purposes or recreational activities poses a potential health risk to the users of the river.

  16. [Quantitative risk assessment of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons dietary exposure from edible fats and oils in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Mengsi; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Lishi; Yan, Weixing

    2016-02-01

    To assess the quantitative risk of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) dietary exposure from edible fats and oils in China. One hundred samples of edible fats and oils were collected from the supermarkets and the farmers markets in 11 provinces of China from December in 2013 to May in 2014. Then they were tested for EU15+1 PAHs (16 PAHs were controlled in priority by European Food Safety Authority) by two test methods which were QuECHERS-GC-MS-MS and GPC-HPLC-FLD. Data of PAHs concentration and edible fats and oils consumption which were from Chinese National Nutrition and Health Survey in 2002 were combined to evaluate carcinogenic risk of PAHs in edible fats and oils by the method of margin of exposure (MOE). In this process, we divided the population into 6 groups, namely male adults (older than 18 years old), female adults (older than 18), male youths (13-17), female youths (13-17), school-agers (6-12) and preschoolers (2-5), and thought carcinogenicity as the critical toxicity end point of PAHs. Two quantitative risk assessment methods, i.e. point assessment and probability assessment, were used to evaluate the dietary exposure and MOEs. EU15+1 PAHs in one of 100 samples were not detected, other samples were polluted in different degrees; the detection rates were 3%-98% and the average contents were 0.26-3.26 μg/kg. The results of PAHs dietary exposure from both of point assessment and probability assessment were the same. The average exposures of PAH8 were as the following: male adults were 10.03 and (9.34 ± 12.61) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1)(The former was from point assessment and the latter from probability assessment, the same below), female adults were 9.95 and (9.60 ± 15.04) ng · kg(-1)·d (-1), male youths were 11.09 and (10.84 ± 16.54) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1), female youths were 10.06 and (9.58 ± 12.87) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1),school-agers were 15.29 and (15.62 ± 25.54) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1), preschoolers were 19.27 and (19.22 ± 28.91) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1). MOEs

  17. Potential application of quantitative microbiological risk assessment techniques to an aseptic-UHT process in the food industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2013-04-01

    Aseptic ultra-high-temperature (UHT)-type processed food products (e.g., milk or soup) are ready to eat products which are consumed extensively globally due to a combination of their comparative high quality and long shelf life, with no cold chain or other preservation requirements. Due to the inherent microbial vulnerability of aseptic-UHT product formulations, the safety and stability-related performance objectives (POs) required at the end of the manufacturing process are the most demanding found in the food industry. The key determinants to achieving sterility, and which also differentiates aseptic-UHT from in-pack sterilised products, are the challenges associated with the processes of aseptic filling and sealing. This is a complex process that has traditionally been run using deterministic or empirical process settings. Quantifying the risk of microbial contamination and recontamination along the aseptic-UHT process, using the scientifically based process quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), offers the possibility to improve on the currently tolerable sterility failure rate (i.e., 1 defect per 10,000 units). In addition, benefits of applying QMRA are (i) to implement process settings in a transparent and scientific manner; (ii) to develop a uniform common structure whatever the production line, leading to a harmonisation of these process settings, and; (iii) to bring elements of a cost-benefit analysis of the management measures. The objective of this article is to explore how QMRA techniques and risk management metrics may be applied to aseptic-UHT-type processed food products. In particular, the aseptic-UHT process should benefit from a number of novel mathematical and statistical concepts that have been developed in the field of QMRA. Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian inference and sensitivity analysis, should help in assessing the compliance with safety and stability-related POs set at the end of the manufacturing

  18. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157 : H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franz, E.; Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.

    2010-01-01

    Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green

  19. Effects of a 20 year rain event: a quantitative microbial risk assessment of a case of contaminated bathing water in Copenhagen, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja; Erichsen, A. C.; Mark, O.

    2013-01-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) often lack data on water quality leading to great uncertainty in the QMRA because of the many assumptions. The quantity of waste water contamination was estimated and included in a QMRA on an extreme rain event leading to combined sewer overflow (CS...

  20. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157 : H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franz, E.; Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.

    2010-01-01

    Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green

  1. IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment I. Methods and metrics for defining exposure-response relationships and points of departure (PoDs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report summarizes the discussion, conclusions, and points of consensus of the IWGT Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (QWG) based on a meeting in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil October 31–November 2, 2013. Topics addressed incl...

  2. Use of quantitative hazard analysis to evaluate risk associated with US Department of Energy Nuclear Explosive Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischer, S.R.; O`Brien, D.A.; Martinez, J.; LeDoux, M.

    1996-03-01

    Quantitative hazard assessments (QHAs) are being used to support the US Department of Energy (DOE) Integrated Safety Process (SS-21), Nuclear Explosive Safety Studies (NESS), and Environmental Safety and Health (ES&H) initiatives. The QHAs are used to identify hazards associated with DOE nuclear explosive operations. In 1994, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratory, and the Pantex Plant participated in a joint effort to demonstrate the utility of performing hazard assessments (HAs) concurrently with process design and development efforts. Early identification of high risk operations allow for process modifications before final process design is completed. This demonstration effort, which used an integrated design process (SS-21), resulted in the redesign of the dismantlement process for the B61 center case. The SS-21 program integrates environment, safety, and health (ES&H) and nuclear explosive safety requirements. QHAs are used to identify accidents that have the potential for worker injury or public health or environmental impact. The HA is to evaluate the likelihood of accident sequences that have the potential for worker or public injury or environmental damage; identify safety critical tooling and procedural steps; identify operational safety controls; identify safety-class/significant systems, structures and components; identify dominant accident sequences; demonstrate that the facility Safety Analysis Report (SAR) design-basis accident envelops process-specific accidents; and support future change control activities.

  3. Progress and perspectives of quantitative structure-activity relationships used for ecological risk assessment of toxic organic compounds

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN JingWen; LI XueHua; YU HaiYing; WANG YaNan; QIAO XianLiang

    2008-01-01

    Structure-activity relationship (SAR) and quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR), collec-tively referred to as (Q)SARs, play an important role in ecological risk assessment (ERA) of organic chemicals. (Q)SARs can fill the data gap for physical-chemical, environmental behavioral and ecotoxicological parameters of organic compounds; they can decrease experimental expenses and reduce the extent of experimental testing (especially animal testing); they can also be used to assess the uncertainty of the experimental data. With the development for several decades, (Q)SARs in envi-ronmental sciences show three features: application orientation, multidisciplinary integration, and in-telligence. Progress of (Q)SAR technology for ERA of toxic organic compounds, including endpoint selection and mathematic methods for establishing simple, transparent, easily interpretable and portable (Q)SAR models, is reviewed. The recent development on defining application domains and diagnosing outliers is summarized. Model characterization with respect to goodness-of-fit, stability and predictive power is specially presented. The purpose of the review is to promote the development of (Q)SARs orientated to ERA of organic chemicals.

  4. Progress and perspectives of quantitative structure-activity relationships used for ecological risk assessment of toxic organic compounds

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Structure-activity relationship (SAR) and quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR), collec- tively referred to as (Q)SARs, play an important role in ecological risk assessment (ERA) of organic chemicals. (Q)SARs can fill the data gap for physical-chemical, environmental behavioral and ecotoxicological parameters of organic compounds; they can decrease experimental expenses and reduce the extent of experimental testing (especially animal testing); they can also be used to assess the uncertainty of the experimental data. With the development for several decades, (Q)SARs in envi- ronmental sciences show three features: application orientation, multidisciplinary integration, and in- telligence. Progress of (Q)SAR technology for ERA of toxic organic compounds, including endpoint selection and mathematic methods for establishing simple, transparent, easily interpretable and portable (Q)SAR models, is reviewed. The recent development on defining application domains and diagnosing outliers is summarized. Model characterization with respect to goodness-of-fit, stability and predictive power is specially presented. The purpose of the review is to promote the development of (Q)SARs orientated to ERA of organic chemicals.

  5. A Generic Quantitative Risk Assessment Framework for the Entry of Bat-Borne Zoonotic Viruses into the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horigan, Verity; Gale, Paul; Kosmider, Rowena D.; Breed, Andrew C.; Snary, Emma L.

    2016-01-01

    Bat-borne viruses have been linked to a number of zoonotic diseases; in 2014 there have been human cases of Nipah virus (NiV) in Bangladesh and Ebola virus in West and Central Africa. Here we describe a model designed to provide initial quantitative predictions of the risk of entry of such viruses to European Union (EU) Member States (MSs) through four routes: human travel, legal trade (e.g. fruit and animal products), live animal movements and illegal importation of bushmeat. The model utilises available datasets to assess the movement via these routes between individual countries of the world and EU MSs. These data are combined with virus specific data to assess the relative risk of entry between EU MSs. As a case study, the model was parameterised for NiV. Scenario analyses showed that the selection of exporting countries with NiV and potentially contaminated trade products were essential to the accuracy of all model outputs. Uncertainty analyses of other model parameters identified that the model expected number of years to an introduction event within the EU was highly susceptible to the prevalence of NiV in bats. The relative rankings of the MSs and routes, however, were more robust. The UK, the Netherlands and Germany were consistently the most likely points of entry and the ranking of most MSs varied by no more than three places (maximum variation five places). Legal trade was consistently the most likely route of entry, only falling below human travel when the estimate of the prevalence of NiV in bats was particularly low. Any model-based calculation is dependent on the data available to feed into the model and there are distinct gaps in our knowledge, particularly in regard to various pathogen/virus as well as host/bat characteristics. However, the strengths of this model lie in the provision of relative comparisons of risk among routes and MSs. The potential for expansion of the model to include other routes and viruses and the possibility of rapid

  6. Studying the effects of POs and MCs on the Salmonella ALOP with a quantitative risk assessment model for beef production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuominen, Pirkko; Ranta, Jukka; Maijala, Riitta

    2007-08-15

    The Finnish Salmonella Control Programme and the special guarantees (SG) of import concerning Salmonella in the beef production chain were examined within the risk analysis framework. The appropriate level of protection (ALOP de facto since not referred to as ALOP in regulation), performance objectives (PO), and microbiological criteria (MC) were identified along the beef production chain. A quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) model using the Bayesian probabilistic method was developed for the beef chain to evaluate the capability of different POs to contribute to the ALOP. The influence of SGs was studied as an intervention protecting Finnish consumers. The QMRA made it possible to translate an ALOP without a stated food safety objective (FSO) to POs when implemented for both ready-to-eat (RTE) and non-RTE products. According to the results, the Finnish ALOP de facto for beef, beef preparations and products (10 human Salmonella cases/100,000) was reached in all of the years 1996-2004. However, if the prevalence at the slaughter, domestic cut beef, and retail levels would increase to the level of POs set (maximum 1%), the ALOP de facto would be exceeded by a factor of roughly two. On the other hand, the zero tolerance applied to MCs would keep the true Salmonella prevalence at production steps with POs clearly below 1%, and the ALOP would then be achievable. The influence of SGs on the total exposure was so small (average 0.1% added to the total prevalence of beef-derived foods at retail) that their relevance may be doubted with the current amount and Salmonella prevalence in beef-derived imports. On the other hand, a change in import profile could increase the protective effect of the SGs. Although practical follow-up has to be carried out as apparent prevalences, the objectives and criteria should be estimated as true prevalences and incidences with quantified uncertainties in order to achieve a sound, transparent scientific-based understanding of

  7. In search of the 'at risk' population: A review of quantitative social vulnerability techniques in the River Parrett catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, Iain; Fitton, James

    2015-04-01

    In the field of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), disparate research agendas have led to an increasing divergence in the quantitative approaches used to define community social vulnerability in hazardous places. Though the output of such research methods have been aligned in their aim of producing a universal risk classification or Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI), the conceptual and statistical approaches have often varied greatly. Methodologies have differed in their use of multivariate statistics to classify small area census data, often making use of techniques such as Pareto ranking, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) or more recently, cluster analysis, to derive geodemographic-based assessments. In this research, two alternative paradigms were applied and contrasted to review community social vulnerability to flooding within the River Parrett catchment area, Somerset, UK. The UK experienced unprecedented rainfall during the winter of 2013/14 resulting in the flooding of 65 km2 of the River Parrett catchment area, Somerset. Approximately 600 properties were flooded and a number of towns cut off due to high floodwaters. It has been estimated that 3,300 properties are potentially exposed to a 1% annual probability flood event within the catchment, with this thought to rise to over 6,600 in the future, due to the impacts of climate change. Since the recent flooding, an action plan has been developed by Somerset County Council. However, the focus is predominantly on the physical aspects of the flooding hazard, with very little consideration for the social vulnerability of the communities affected. Within the catchment there are a range of socioeconomic profiles, including highly urbanised areas such as Yeovil, Taunton and Bridgewater, as well as numerous villages and hamlets. Therefore, the catchment provided an ideal case study area to model two divergent approaches for assessing social vulnerability to flooding. UK Census output information (2011) was used as the

  8. A Finding Method of Business Risk Factors Using Characteristics of Probability Distributions of Effect Ratios on Qualitative and Quantitative Hybrid Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samejima, Masaki; Negoro, Keisuke; Mitsukuni, Koshichiro; Akiyoshi, Masanori

    We propose a finding method of business risk factors on qualitative and quantitative hybrid simulation in time series. Effect ratios of qualitative arcs in the hybrid simulation vary output values of the simulation, so we define effect ratios causing risk as business risk factors. Finding business risk factors in entire ranges of effect ratios is time-consuming. It is considered that probability distributions of effect ratios in present time step and ones in previous time step are similar, the probability distributions in present time step can be estimated. Our method finds business risk factors in only estimated ranges effectively. Experimental results show that a precision rate and a recall rate are 86%, and search time is decreased 20% at least.

  9. A semi-quantitative risk assessment method for analyzing the level of risk associated with parameters in design of thermal heavy oil Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrokhzad, M.A. [IMV Projects Inc., Alberta (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    how to prevent and control them. In this paper we look at the involved parameters in design of the SAGD pipelines and provide a semi-quantitative risk assessment method and the level of risk involved for each of these parameters. (author)

  10. Quantitative approach for the risk assessment of African swine fever and Classical swine fever introduction into the United States through legal imports of pigs and swine products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera-Ibatá, Diana María; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Quijada, Darla; Burton, Kenneth

    2017-01-01

    The US livestock safety strongly depends on its capacity to prevent the introduction of Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs). Therefore, accurate and updated information on the location and origin of those potential TADs risks is essential, so preventive measures as market restrictions can be put on place. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the current risk of African swine fever (ASF) and Classical swine fever (CSF) introduction into the US through the legal importations of live pigs and swine products using a quantitative approach that could be later applied to other risks. Four quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were developed to estimate the monthly probabilities of ASF and CSF release into the US, and the exposure of susceptible populations (domestic and feral swine) to these introductions at state level. The results suggest a low annual probability of either ASF or CSF introduction into the US, by any of the analyzed pathways (5.5*10−3). Being the probability of introduction through legal imports of live pigs (1.8*10−3 for ASF, and 2.5*10−3 for CSF) higher than the risk of legally imported swine products (8.90*10−4 for ASF, and 1.56*10−3 for CSF). This could be caused due to the low probability of exposure associated with this type of commodity (products). The risk of feral pigs accessing to swine products discarded in landfills was slightly higher than the potential exposure of domestic pigs through swill feeding. The identification of the months at highest risk, the origin of the higher risk imports, and the location of the US states most vulnerable to those introductions (Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin for live swine and California, Florida and Texas for swine products), is valuable information that would help to design prevention, risk-mitigation and early-detection strategies that would help to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASF/CSF introductions into the US. PMID:28797058

  11. Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of norovirus from wastewater irrigated vegetables in Ghana using genome copies and fecal indicator ratio conversion for estimating exposure dose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Sampson, Angelina; Amponsah, Samuel K.

    2017-01-01

    The need to replace the commonly applied fecal indicator conversions ratio (an assumption of 1:10− 5 virus to fecal indicator organism) in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) with models based on quantitative data on the virus of interest has gained prominence due to the different...... physical and environmental factors that might influence the reliability of using indicator organisms in microbial risk assessment. The challenges facing analytical studies on virus enumeration (genome copies or particles) have contributed to the already existing lack of data in QMRA modelling. This study...... to estimate the norovirus count. In all scenarios of using different water sources, the application of the fecal indicator conversion ratio underestimated the norovirus disease burden, measured by the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), when compared to results using the genome copies norovirus data...

  12. Quantitative risk analysis applied to innocuity and potency tests on the oil-adjuvanted vaccine against foot and mouth disease in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cané, B G; Rodríguez Toledo, J; Falczuk, A; Leanes, L F; Manetti, J C; Maradei, E; Verde, P

    1995-12-01

    The authors describe the method used in Argentina for quantification of risk in controls of the potency and innocuity of foot and mouth disease vaccine. Quantitative risk analysis is a relatively new tool in the animal health field, and is in line with the principles of transparency and equivalency of the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement of the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT: now World Trade Organisation [WTO]). The risk assessment is presented through a description of the steps involved in manufacturing the vaccine, and the controls performed by the manufacturer and by the National Health Animal Service (Servicio Nacional de Sanidad Animal: SENASA). The adverse situation is considered as the lack of potency or innocuity of the vaccine, and the risk is estimated using a combination of the Monte Carlo simulation and the application of a Bayesian model.

  13. Long-term risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse according to high-risk human papillomavirus genotype and semi-quantitative viral load among 33,288 women with normal cervical cytology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Louise T; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian;

    2014-01-01

    In this prospective cohort study, we estimated the long-term risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3+) by high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) genotype and semi-quantitative viral load at baseline among 33,288 women aged 14-90 years with normal baseline cytology. During...... 2002-2005, residual liquid-based cervical cytology samples were collected from women screened for cervical cancer in Copenhagen, Denmark. Samples were HPV-tested with Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and genotyped with INNO-LiPA. Semi-quantitative viral load was measured by HC2 relative light units in women......HPV genotyping during cervical cancer screening may help identify women at highest risk of CIN3+....

  14. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) shows increased public health risk associated with exposure to river water under conditions of riverbed sediment resuspension

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Abia, ALK

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available to estimated risks. Thus, the present study aimed at determining the public health risk associated with exposure to pathogenic bacteria in polluted river water under undisturbed conditions and conditions of sediment resuspension in the Apies River, Gauteng...

  15. Return to Sport for Skeletally Immature Athletes After ACL Reconstruction: Preventing a Second Injury Using a Quality of Movement Assessment and Quantitative Measures to Address Modifiable Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graziano, Jessica; Chiaia, Theresa; de Mille, Polly; Nawabi, Danyal H; Green, Daniel W; Cordasco, Frank A

    2017-04-01

    Reinjury rates after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) are highest among young athletes, who consequently suffer from low rates of return to play. Historically, quantitative measures have been used to determine readiness to return to sport; however, they do not assess modifiable risk factors related to the quality of movement. To determine the effectiveness of a criteria-based rehabilitation progression and return-to-sport criteria on efficient return to activity and prevention of second injury in young athletes post-ACLR. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Between December 2010 and 2013, 42 skeletally immature athletes (mean chronologic age, 12 years; range, 10-15 years) who underwent ACLR using ipsilateral hamstring tendon autograft were prospectively evaluated. All athletes progressed through a criteria-based rehabilitation progression; were assessed at specific time frames for strength, biomechanical, and neuromuscular risk factors predictive of injury; and were provided targeted interventions. The final return to sport phase consisted of quantitative testing as well as a quality of movement assessment of several functional movements with progressive difficulty and sports-specific loading. Clearance for unrestricted activity was determined by achieving satisfactory results on both qualitative and quantitative assessments with consideration for the demands of each sport. The mean time for return to unrestricted competitive activity was 12 months. All but 3 (7%) athletes returned to their primary sport. Thirty-five athletes (83%) returned to unrestricted activity. Of the 6 (14%) who sustained a second injury, 3 (50%) were injured in sports they were not cleared for. All ACL reinjuries occurred in a cutting sport. Half of reinjuries occurred within 1 year of surgery, while the remaining occurred between 1 and 2 years. Eighty-three percent of reinjuries involved highly competitive cutting athletes. In our cohort, the combination of qualitative and

  16. Semi-Quantitative Assessment of the Health Risk of Occupational Exposure to Chemicals and Evaluation of Spirometry Indices on the Staff of Petrochemical Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajar Dazi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study: Petrochemical industry is an important industry in the economic development of the country that causes employees have exposure with several kinds of contamination. The aim of this study was Semi-quantitative assessment of the health risk of occupational exposure to chemical materials and investigation of spirometry indices between employees of petrochemical industry. Material & Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in one of the petrochemical industry complex in a special area of Assaluyeh in Iran in 2016. Health risk assessment of exposure to harmful chemical agents was performed in all of units and during three stages (identification of harmful material, determination of hazard rate of the chemical material, exposure rate and estimate of risk rate. Spirometry indices were measured using spirometry. Results: The results of chemical materials risk assessment showed that Raffinate in Butadiene unit has identified the highest amount of risk rank among 27 chemical materials in investigated units. In comparison with spirometry indices in Olefine unit between age with FVC parameter and history work with FVC and FEV1 parameters has observed a significant and negative correlation (P<0.05. Conclusion: The results of risk assessment in all of the petrochemical units showed that 48.14% of materials were at low risk level, 29.62% medium risk, 18.51% high risk and 3.7% had very high risk level. The variables affecting on spirometry employees such as age and work experience play an important role in reducing the pulmonary function tests in exposed subjects.

  17. Exploring probabilistic tools for the development of a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of hydro-meteorological hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumpano, V.; Hussin, H. Y.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    Mass-movements and floods are hydro-meteorological hazards that can have catastrophic effects on communities living in mountainous areas prone to these disastrous events. Environmental, climate and socio-economic changes are expected to affect the tempo-spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe. These changes and their effects on the occurrence of future hazards need to be analyzed and modeled using probabilistic hazard and risk assessment methods in order to assist stakeholders in disaster management strategies and policy making. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) using probabilistic methods can further calculate damage and losses to multi-hazards and determine the uncertainties related to all the probabilistic components of the hazard and the vulnerability of the elements at risk. Therefore, in order to develop an effective platform that can quantitatively calculate the risk of mass-movements and floods in several European test sites, an extensive inventory and analysis has been carried out of the available tools and software related to the probabilistic risk assessment of single and multi-hazards. The tools have been reviewed based on whether they are open source and freely available, their required input data, the availability and type of hazard and vulnerability modules, transparency of methods used, their validation and calibration techniques, the inclusion of uncertainties and their state of the art. The analysis also specially focused on the applicability of the tools to European study areas. The findings showed that assumptions and simplifications are made when assessing and quantifying the hazards. The interaction between multiple hazards, like cascading effects are not assessed in most tools and some consider the hazard and vulnerability as qualitative components, rather than quantitative ones. This analysis of hazard and risk assessment tools and software will give future developers and experts a better overview of

  18. 软件项目进度风险的定量分析方法%Quantitative Risk Analysis of Software Project Schedule Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何剑虹; 白晓颖; 胡林平

    2011-01-01

    Project delay is still a common phenomenon in software development,which may affect seriously in software quality and cost, even result in project failure Risk control is thus essential for project schedule management. The paper analyzed the quantitative approaches for schedule risk analysis and management. It surveyed and compared the three typical models of software project management, including PERT/CPM, Critical Chain/Buffer Management, Event Chain Methodology. Among them,the Event Chain is a newly proposed model and risk analysis method from 2004. It introduces the event model into traditional models of activities, which captures the basic characteristics of risk occurrence and propagation. It represents a new viewpoint with a separated and dedicated risk model, and promotes a innovative approach for quantitative risk analysis.%软件项目超期仍然是业界的一个普遍现象,进度延期可能直接导致项目质量下降、费用超支甚至失败,因此项目执行过程中对于进度的风险控制至关重要.从定量分析的角度探讨项目进度管理的风险管理方法,并对3种主要的进度管理方法和模型--PERT/CPM方法、关键链方法、事件链方法--进行了调研和对比.其中,事件链是近年来新提出的一种针对风险事件进行建模和分析的方法,为进一步研究有效的进度风险管理控制方法和技术提供了新的思路和视角.

  19. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V

    2017-03-21

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider's server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs' users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs' risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs' risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing.

  20. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V.

    2017-01-01

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider’s server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs’ users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs’ risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs’ risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing. PMID:28335569

  1. Potential usefulness of a topic model-based categorization of lung cancers as quantitative CT biomarkers for predicting the recurrence risk after curative resection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawata, Y.; Niki, N.; Ohmatsu, H.; Satake, M.; Kusumoto, M.; Tsuchida, T.; Aokage, K.; Eguchi, K.; Kaneko, M.; Moriyama, N.

    2014-03-01

    In this work, we investigate a potential usefulness of a topic model-based categorization of lung cancers as quantitative CT biomarkers for predicting the recurrence risk after curative resection. The elucidation of the subcategorization of a pulmonary nodule type in CT images is an important preliminary step towards developing the nodule managements that are specific to each patient. We categorize lung cancers by analyzing volumetric distributions of CT values within lung cancers via a topic model such as latent Dirichlet allocation. Through applying our scheme to 3D CT images of nonsmall- cell lung cancer (maximum lesion size of 3 cm) , we demonstrate the potential usefulness of the topic model-based categorization of lung cancers as quantitative CT biomarkers.

  2. Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

    2016-01-01

    Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

  3. High yellow color intensity by angioscopy with quantitative colorimetry to identify high-risk features in culprit lesions of patients with acute coronary syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishibashi, Fumiyuki; Mizuno, Kyoichi; Kawamura, Akio; Singh, Premranjan P; Nesto, Richard W; Waxman, Sergio

    2007-10-15

    High yellow color intensity (HYCI) regions of atherosclerotic plaque, determined by angioscopy with quantitative colorimetry, are associated with lipid cores underneath thin fibrous caps in ex vivo tissue samples. To determine whether HYCI regions of coronary plaque are associated with disruption or thrombus in living patients, quantitative colorimetry was applied to angioscopy, and the color of culprit lesions was measured in patients with acute coronary syndromes. In 46 patients with acute coronary syndromes (acute myocardial infarction, n = 14; unstable angina pectoris [UAP] with culprit thrombus, n = 16; and UAP without culprit thrombus, n = 16), the recorded angioscopic images of culprit lesions were analyzed using a quantitative colorimetric method based on the L*a*b* color space applied to angioscopy (positive b* = yellow color intensity). HYCI was defined as b* value >23. Plaque disruption was significantly more prevalent in 19 of 24 HYCI regions (79%) than in 9 of 22 non-HYCI regions (41%) (p = 0.007). Culprit HYCI regions were prevalent in patients with myocardial infarction (11 of 14 [79%]), followed by those with UAP with thrombus (9 of 16 [56%]) and UAP without thrombus (4 of 16 [25%]) (p = 0.01 for trend), and were significantly more prevalent in 66% of patients with myocardial infarction and UAP with thrombus compared with 25% of those with UAP without thrombus (p = 0.007). In conclusion, HYCI regions of coronary plaque may be indicative of high-risk lesions vulnerable to thrombosis. Coronary angioscopy with quantitative colorimetry could be used to study the association between high-risk coronary lesions and future cardiovascular events.

  4. Risk quantitative technology of oil and gas drilling engineering%石油天然气钻井工程风险量化技术

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张洪梅; 李俊荣; 尹立华; 张涛; 宁立伟; 张庆华

    2012-01-01

    Based on the concept of risk, a quantitative approach of risk in drilling engineering-risk, assessment index system, was presented by analyzing the design of the oil and gas drilling engineering, equipment, construction management, complex situation and accidents. Combining with scientific computing and expertise, this approach determined quantitative criteria and three indicators-inherent risk indicators, accident-prone indicators and consequences severity index, and it divided drilling engineering risk into 4 levels, eventually the risk assessment system was established which was made up of index system, scoring system, and risk classification standard. This approach can be used for risk assessment of the professional institutions and also for the inspection of the safety management departments to take appropriate measures to reduce the risk of the project.%基于风险的概念,在对石油天然气钻井工程设计、工艺设备、施工管理、复杂情况和事故等总体分析的基础上,提出钻井工程风险量化方法——风险评估指数系统.此方法结合科学计算和专家经验,确定了固有风险指标、事故易发性指标和后果严重度指标等三个指标及量化标准,并将钻井工程风险划分为4个等级,最终建立了由指数体系、评分体系、风险分级标准组成的风险评估系统.本方法可用于专业机构的风险评估,也可用于安全管理部门的检查,以指导采取相应措施降低工程的危险性.

  5. Quantitative exposure assessment for the combustion of meat and bone meal derived from specified risk material in the context of BSE in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, E J; Grace, P M; Fry, D J; McDonnell, K P; Colgan, S F; Ward, S M

    2002-11-01

    The probability and severity of an adverse event can be analyzed by quantitative exposure assessment (QEA). This methodology was applied to model the human health risks associated with the combustion of specified risk material (SRM) derived meat and bone meal (MBM) in a combustion facility. The identification of MBM and SRM as significant factors in the spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has resulted in restrictions on their use and movement, and this has led to a requirement for alternative end-uses for these products. A stochastic (Latin Hypercube sampling) simulation model was developed to assess the exposure and hence the risks associated with the use of SRM-derived MBM in a combustion facility. The model simulates the potential infectivity pathways that SRM-derived MBM follows, including its production from animals potentially infected with sub-clinical BSE and subsequent processing of the material with segregation and heat treatments. A failure probability was included to take account of sub-optimal operating conditions. Two scenarios, reflecting the infectivity risk in different animal tissues as defined by the European Commission's scientific steering committee (SSC), were performed with 100,000 iterations of the model. Model results showed that the societal exposure to humans resulting from the combustion of SRM-derived MBM is extremely small (mean values ranging from 7.57 x 10(-6) ID50/year to 8.38 x 10(-5) ID50/year). The resulting societal risks are significantly less than the background societal risk of approximately 2.5 cases of sporadic CJD in Ireland each year. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the species barrier had a large impact on exposure calculations and hence should be the focus of further scientific investigation to reduce our uncertainty about this parameter. The model predicts that material spillage into untreated effluent represents the biggest risk to humans, indicating that efforts for risk mitigation should be focused

  6. Quantitative risk assessment relating to adventitious presence of allergens in food: a probabilistic model applied to peanut in chocolate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimbaud, Loup; Heraud, Fanny; La Vieille, Sébastien; Leblanc, Jean-Charles; Crepet, Amélie

    2010-01-01

    Peanut allergy is a public health concern, owing to the high prevalence in France and the severity of the reactions. Despite peanut-containing product avoidance diets, a risk may exist due to the adventitious presence of peanut allergens in a wide range of food products. Peanut is not mentioned in their ingredients list, but precautionary labeling is often present. A method of quantifying the risk of allergic reactions following the consumption of such products is developed, taking the example of peanut in chocolate tablets. The occurrence of adventitious peanut proteins in chocolate and the dose-response relationship are estimated with a Bayesian approach using available published data. The consumption pattern is described by the French individual consumption survey INCA2. Risk simulations are performed using second-order Monte Carlo simulations, which separately propagates variability and uncertainty of the model input variables. Peanut allergens occur in approximately 36% of the chocolates, leading to a mean exposure level of 0.2 mg of peanut proteins per eating occasion. The estimated risk of reaction averages 0.57% per eating occasion for peanut-allergic adults. The 95% values of the risk stand between 0 and 3.61%, which illustrates the risk variability. The uncertainty, represented by the 95% credible intervals, is concentrated around these risk estimates. Children have similar results. The conclusion is that adventitious peanut allergens induce a risk of reaction for a part of the French peanut-allergic population. The method developed can be generalized to assess the risk due to the consumption of every foodstuff potentially contaminated by allergens.

  7. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars, Based on Modeling Supply Chain Logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Franz, E.

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference betwee

  8. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars, Based on Modeling Supply Chain Logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Franz, E.

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference

  9. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Natural Gas Well with Hydrogen Sulfide%含硫气井定量风险分析方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴庆善; 钱新明; 郭再富; 黄平

    2009-01-01

    随中国经济对石油天然气能源依赖程度的加深,大力开发含硫化氢气田成为重要任务,而定量评价含硫气井的风险显得更加必要和迫切.提出了含硫气井井喷事故硫化氢泄漏扩散过程中个人风险定量计算方法,根据相关统计资料,提出了井喷事故概率的参考值,将该方法应用于川渝地区某含硫气井,获取了该井周边区域个人风险等值线,并与可接受风险水平进行对比分析.结果表明,由于地形条件的影响,在气井周边不同方向的个人风险水平差异很大,可接受风险水平上限值等值线距井口的距离在不同方位上相差可达1000 m,在对气井进行定量风险分析时必须充分加以考虑.该方法可为油气田开发企业、安全监管部门对含硫气井开发过程实施定量风险评价和管理提供有效技术手段,并为应急计划区的划分及边界确定提供参考.%With the heavy dependence of domestic economy on oil and gas,the exploitation of natural gas fields with hydrogen sulfide is an urgent project in China.The quantitative risk assessment for natural gas wells with hydrogen sulfide is a necessary and impending requirement.A quantitative calculation method for an individual risk for leakage and dispersion process of hydrogen sulfide in blowout of gas wells is proposed in this paper.Based on the statistical analysis of data in literature,the probability of blowout incident is brought forward for reference.The method is applied to a typical gas well in Sichuan and Chongqing district as a practical example.The contour curves of individual risks in the area around the well are obtained,and compared with the acceptable level of the individual risks.The results show that the topographic conditions of the gas well greatly influence the calculation results of the individual risks,the distance between the upper limit isoline of acceptable risk and the well in different directions can reach 1000 m.So it must

  10. Prevalence of low bone health using quantitative ultrasound in Indian women aged 41-60 years: Its association with nutrition and other related risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenoy, Shweta; Chawla, Jasmine Kaur; Gupta, Swati; Sandhu, Jaspal Singh

    2017-02-02

    The purpose of this study was to find the prevalence of low bone health conditions and assess associated nutritional and other risk factors in Indian women aged 41-60 years. A total of 1,911 women participated in this cross-sectional study. Bone health was assessed using an Omnisense multisite quantitative ultrasound bone densitometer on two sites (radius and tibia). Crude prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis was found to be 30.09% and 19.89%, respectively. The Indian women were deficient in a majority of nutrients. Postmenopause, hysterectomy, hyperthyroid, hypothyroid, hypertension, low physical activity, low sun exposure, high stress levels, and low calcium levels were found to be independent risk factors of low bone health.

  11. Developing a Semi-Quantitative Occupational Risk Prediction Model for Chemical Exposures and Its Application to a National Chemical Exposure Databank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiu-Ying Chen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a semi-quantitative occupational chemical exposure risk prediction model, based on the calculation of exposure hazard indexes, was proposed, corrected, and applied to a national chemical exposure databank. The model comprises one factor used to describe toxicity (i.e., the toxicity index, and two factors used to reflect the exposure potential (i.e., the exposure index and protection deficiency index of workers exposed to chemicals. An expert system was used to correct the above proposed model. By applying the corrected model to data obtained from a national occupational chemical hazard survey program, chemical exposure risks of various manufacturing industries were determined and a national control strategy for the abatement of occupational chemical exposures was proposed. The results of the present study would provide useful information for governmental agencies to allocate their limited resources effectively for reducing chemical exposures of workers.

  12. Failure data specialization in quantitative risk assessments of process plants; Especializacao de dados de falha em analise quantitativa de riscos de plantas de processo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribeiro, Antonio C.O. [Bayer S.A., Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Melo, P.F. Frutuoso e [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia

    2005-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to show the Bayesian inference in reliability studies, which are used to failures rates updating in safety analyses. It is developed the impact of its using in quantitative risks assessments for industrial process plants. With this approach we find a structured and auditable way of showing the difference between an industrial installation with a good project and maintenance structure from another one that shows a low level of quality in these areas. In general the evidence from failures rates and as follow the frequency of occurrence from scenarios, which the risks taken in account in ERA, are taken from generics data banks, instead of, the installation in analysis. When using the plant data we need special effort to develop a data bank, that is, a maintenance managing system, which allows the data insertion as for example the SAP{sup R} and its PM module. (author)

  13. Evaluating the spatial distribution of quantitative risk and hazard level of arsenic exposure in groundwater, case study of Qorveh County, Kurdistan Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasrabadi, Touraj; Bidabadi, Niloufar Shirani

    2013-01-01

    Regional distribution of quantitative risk and hazard levels due to arsenic poisoning in some parts of Iran's Kurdistan province is considered. To investigate the potential risk and hazard level regarding arsenic-contaminated drinking water and further carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects on villagers, thirteen wells in rural areas of Qorveh County were considered for evaluation of arsenic concentration in water. Sampling campaign was performed in August 2010 and arsenic concentration was measured via the Silver Diethyldithiocarbamate method. The highest and lowest arsenic concentration are reported in Guilaklu and Qezeljakand villages with 420 and 67 μg/L, respectively. None of thirteen water samples met the maximum contaminant level issued by USEPA and Institute of Standards and Industrial Research of Iran (10 ppb). The highest arsenic concentration and consequently risk and hazard levels belong to villages situated alongside the eastern frontiers of the county. Existence of volcanic activities within the upper Miocene and Pleistocene in this part of the study area may be addressed as the main geopogenic source of arsenic pollution. Quantitative risk values are varying from 1.49E-03 in Qezeljakand to 8.92E-03 in Guilaklu and may be interpreted as very high when compared by similar studies in Iran. Regarding non-carcinogenic effects, all thirteen water samples are considered hazardous while all calculated chronic daily intakes are greater than arsenic reference dose. Such drinking water source has the potential to impose adverse carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects on villagers. Accordingly, an urgent decision must be made to substitute the current drinking water source with a safer one.

  14. Evaluating the Spatial Distribution of Quantitative Risk and Hazard Level of Arsenic Exposure in Groundwater, case Study of Qorveh County, Kurdistan Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Touraj Nasrabadi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Regional distribution of quantitative risk and hazard levels due to arsenic poisoning in some parts of Iran’s Kurdistan province is considered. To investigate the potential risk and hazard level regarding arsenic-contaminated drinking water and further carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects on villagers, thirteen wells in rural areas of Qorveh County were considered for evaluation of arsenic concentration in water. Sampling campaign was performed in August 2010 and arsenic concentration was measured via the Silver Diethyldithiocarbamate method. The highest and lowest arsenic concentration are reported in Guilaklu and Qezeljakand villages with 420 and 67 μg/L, respectively. None of thirteen water samples met the maximum contaminant level issued by USEPA and Institute of Standards and Industrial Research of Iran (10 ppb. The highest arsenic concentration and consequently risk and hazard levels belong to villages situated alongside the eastern frontiers of the county. Existence of volcanic activities within the upper Miocene and Pleistocene in this part of the study area may be addressed as the main geopogenic source of arsenic pollution. Quantitative risk values are varying from 1.49E-03 in Qezeljakand to 8.92E-03 in Guilaklu and may be interpreted as very high when compared by similar studies in Iran. Regarding non-carcinogenic effects, all thirteen water samples are considered hazardous while all calculated chronic daily intakes are greater than arsenic reference dose. Such drinking water source has the potential to impose adverse carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects on villagers. Accordingly, an urgent decision must be made to substitute the current drinking water source with a safer one.

  15. A quantitative assessment of the risk of transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy by tallow-based calf milk-replacer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paisley, Larry G; Hostrup-Pedersen, Julie

    2004-04-30

    A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to assess the risk of BSE transmission to calves by calf milk-replacer (CMR). We assumed that any BSE infectivity in the CMR would be associated with the allowable levels of impurities in tallow used to manufacture the milk-replacer. Simulations used three different levels of impurities, six different distributions of the BSE infectivity titers of CNS tissues and with and without inclusion of specified risk material (SRM). Our results suggest that tallow-based CMR could have been responsible for some BSE infections in nearly all simulations. The reduction in the allowable impurities in tallow and the exclusion of SRM have greatly reduced--but have not eliminated--the risk of BSE transmission by CMR The results of the simulations are associated with much uncertainty.

  16. A quantitative assessment of the risk of transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy by tallow-based calf milk-replacer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry; Hostrup-Pedersen, J.

    2004-01-01

    A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to assess the risk of BSE transmission to calves by calf milk-replacer (CMR). We assumed that any BSE infectivity in the CMR would be associated with the allowable levels of impurities in tallow used to manufacture the milk-replacer. Simulations used...... three different levels of impurities, six different distributions of the BSE infectivity titers of CNS tissues and with and without inclusion of specified risk material (SRM). Our results suggest that tallow-based CMR could have been responsible for some BSE infections in nearly all simulations....... The reduction in the allowable impurities in tallow and the exclusion of SRM have greatly reduced-but have not eliminated-the risk of BSE transmission by CMR The results of the simulations are associated with much uncertainty....

  17. Comparative measurement and quantitative risk assessment of alcohol consumption through wastewater-based epidemiology: An international study in 20 cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryu, Yeonsuk; Barceló, Damià; Barron, Leon P.

    2016-01-01

    consumption biomarker, ethyl sulfate (EtS) was determined by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. The EtS concentrations were used for estimation of per capita alcohol consumption in each city, which was further compared with international reports and applied for risk assessment by MOE......), and reports the application of these data for the risk assessment of alcohol on a population scale using the margin of exposure (MOE) approach. Raw 24-h composite wastewater samples were collected over a one-week period from 20 cities following a common protocol. For each sample a specific and stable alcohol...... revealed geographical differences in the level and pattern of actual alcohol consumption at an inter-city level. All the sampled cities were in the "high risk" category (MOE....

  18. Quantitative flood risk assessment in historic cities: sensitivity to hydraulic modeling and open socio-economic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Castelli, Fabio; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Mazzanti, Bernardo

    2014-05-01

    The assessment of flood risk in urban areas is considered nowadays a crucial issue to be addressed by technicians and public authorities and requires the estimation of hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Each step of the risk assessment brings its uncertainties to the final result, thus the analysis of the sensitivity to the different contributors is required. Since the damages are generally evaluated through stage-damage functions one of the most important contribution is the estimated value of the water depth. Water depth is the outcome of hydraulic models that can be implemented with different modeling approaches and levels of spatial detail, thus providing flood depth maps that may differ in the extension of the inundated area and in the flood depth value. It is generally argued that 2D models are the most suitable to describe flood behavior in the urban environment although most of applications are carried out in small and sparse urban areas. In the historic cities a 2D model provides reliable results if the grid size is small enough to describe the street/building pattern, implying long simulation runs. Another contribution is given by monetary values assigned to the damage categories that may come from different proxy variables and may oscillate according to the real estate quotations. The risk assessment here presented is made possible thanks to a methodology based on the open data, both socio-economic and territorial, that are available in the web. In this work the risk assessment procedure and the sensitivity analysis are applied to the main cities located along the Arno river, Pisa and Florence (Italy) that are usually considered of broad interest for the importance of urban and cultural heritage. The risk is estimated accounting for structures, household contents, commercial and tertiary sectors which are the most representative of the studied areas. The evaluation and mapping of micro-scale flood risk is carried out in a GIS environment using open data

  19. Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of farmer exposure to Cryptosporidium spp. in irrigation water within Kumasi Metropolis-Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sampson, Angelina; Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Mills-Robertson, Felix C.

    2017-01-01

    Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite which can be transmitted via food and water. Some studies have shown irrigation water to be routes of transmission for Cryptosporidium into the food chain, however, little information is known about Cryptosporidium levels in wastewater used for irrigation...... causing gastroenteritis. The results indicate high positive levels of Cryptosporidium in the irrigation water, however, the levels of Cryptosporidium decreases during the rainfall seasons, risk assessment results show that, farmers face a higher risk of being infected by Cryptosporidium due to frequent...

  20. 2006 American College of Toxicology Distinguished Service Award Lecture: Has quantitative risk assessment been of benefit to the science of toxicology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodricks, Joseph V

    2007-01-01

    Quantitative approaches to evaluating the risks of chemical toxicity entered the lives of toxicologists in the mid-1970s, and the continuing interaction of toxicology and risk assessment has been of benefit to both disciplines. I will summarize the origins of the interaction, the reasons for it, and the difficult course it has followed. In doing so, I will set the stage for a discussion of how the type of thinking that informs risk-based decision-making provides important benefits to the continuing development of the science of toxicology. There will continue to be societal pressure for the development of reliable knowledge about the public health importance of the enormous variety of chemical exposures we all incur, from conception to death. Risk assessment is the framework used to organize and convey that knowledge. Toxicology is the principle discipline used to give scientific substance to that framework. Social acceptance of every manifestation of the modern chemical age requires high assurance that the public health is not threatened, and that assurance depends upon continued improvements in these two mutually dependent disciplines.

  1. Rapid quantification of viable Campylobacter bacteria on chicken carcasses, using real-time PCR and propidium monoazide treatment, as a tool for quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josefsen, M H; Löfström, C; Hansen, T B; Christensen, L S; Olsen, J E; Hoorfar, J

    2010-08-01

    A number of intervention strategies against Campylobacter-contaminated poultry focus on postslaughter reduction of the number of cells, emphasizing the need for rapid and reliable quantitative detection of only viable Campylobacter bacteria. We present a new and rapid quantitative approach to the enumeration of food-borne Campylobacter bacteria that combines real-time quantitative PCR (Q-PCR) with simple propidium monoazide (PMA) sample treatment. In less than 3 h, this method generates a signal from only viable and viable but nonculturable (VBNC) Campylobacter bacteria with an intact membrane. The method's performance was evaluated by assessing the contributions to variability by individual chicken carcass rinse matrices, species of Campylobacter, and differences in efficiency of DNA extraction with differing cell inputs. The method was compared with culture-based enumeration on 50 naturally infected chickens. The cell contents correlated with cycle threshold (C(T)) values (R(2) = 0.993), with a quantification range of 1 x 10(2) to 1 x 10(7) CFU/ml. The correlation between the Campylobacter counts obtained by PMA-PCR and culture on naturally contaminated chickens was high (R(2) = 0.844). The amplification efficiency of the Q-PCR method was not affected by the chicken rinse matrix or by the species of Campylobacter. No Q-PCR signals were obtained from artificially inoculated chicken rinse when PMA sample treatment was applied. In conclusion, this study presents a rapid tool for producing reliable quantitative data on viable Campylobacter bacteria in chicken carcass rinse. The proposed method does not detect DNA from dead Campylobacter bacteria but recognizes the infectious potential of the VBNC state and is thereby able to assess the effect of control strategies and provide trustworthy data for risk assessment.

  2. 76 FR 19311 - Update of the 2003 Interagency Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Risk to Public Health From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-07

    ... ingesting L. monocytogenes, humans can develop listeriosis, a severe foodborne disease with a high case-fatality rate. Listeriosis occurs predominantly in high-risk population subgroups, including pregnant women... listeriosis, the ``Healthy People 2010'' goals for national disease prevention and health promotion...

  3. Quantitative risk assessment for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in low or zero prevalence countries: the example of Norway

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogasen, H.R.; Koeijer, de A.A.

    2007-01-01

    A predictive case-cohort model is applied to Norwegian data to analyze the interaction between challenge and stability factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during the period 1980¿2010. For each year, the BSE risk in cattle is estimated as the expected number of cases. The age distribut

  4. Measuring and Managing Army Supply Chain Risk: A Quantitative Approach by Item Number and Commercial Entity Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Transition “ costs ” for new suppliers Distribution risks/disruptions: inbound or outbound Infrastructure Unavailability Roads Rails Ports Air...Sourcing and Supplier Relationship Management initiative, to help the Army reduce supply chain costs by identifying strategic suppliers and working closely...Relationship Management (SRM) initiative. This initiative seeks to leverage industry best practices to help the Army reduce supply chain costs

  5. A quantitative assessment of the risk of transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy by tallow-based calf milk-replacer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry; Hostrup-Pedersen, J.

    2004-01-01

    A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to assess the risk of BSE transmission to calves by calf milk-replacer (CMR). We assumed that any BSE infectivity in the CMR would be associated with the allowable levels of impurities in tallow used to manufacture the milk-replacer. Simulations used...

  6. Quantitative risk assessment of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 and Campylobacter jejuni related to consumption of raw milk in a province in Northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, F; Serraino, A; Bonilauri, P; Ostanello, F; Daminelli, P; Finazzi, G; Losio, M N; Marchetti, G; Liuzzo, G; Zanoni, R G; Rosmini, R

    2012-11-01

    A quantitative risk assessment was developed to describe the risk of campylobacteriosis and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Northern Italy. Exposure assessment considered the microbiological status of dairy farms, expected milk contamination, storage conditions from bulk tank to home storage, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, age of consumers, serving size, and consumption preference. The differential risk between milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst field handling conditions was considered. The probability of Campylobacter jejuni infection was modeled with a single-hit dose-response beta-Poisson model, whereas for HUS an exponential dose-response model was chosen and two probabilities were used to model the higher susceptibility of children younger than 5 years old. For every 10,000 to 20,000 consumers each year, the models predicted for the best and worst storage conditions, respectively, 2.12 and 1.14 campylobacteriosis cases and 0.02 and 0.09 HUS cases in the 0- to 5-year age group and 0.1 and 0.5 HUS cases in the >5-year age group. The expected pediatric HUS cases do not differ considerably from those reported in Italy by the Minister of Health. The model developed may be a useful tool for extending the assessment of the risk of campylobacteriosis and HUS due to raw milk consumption at the national level in Italy. Considering the epidemiological implications of this study, the risk of illness linked to raw milk consumption should not be ignored and could be reduced by the use of simple measures. Boiling milk before consumption and strict control of temperatures by farmers during raw milk distribution have significant effects on campylobacteriosis and HUS and are essential measures for risk management.

  7. Quantitative assessment of the influence of CYP1B1 polymorphisms and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Ming; Hu, Yuan-Yuan; Hu, Yu-Kun; Xie, Long-Chuan; Xu, Xiao-Ming; Wu, Ming-Yue; Niu, Yu-Ming

    2014-04-01

    The associations between CYP1B1 polymorphisms and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) risk have been conflicting. We therefore performed a meta-analysis to derive a more precise relationship. Six published case-control studies were collected; odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to assess the association between CYP1B1 Leu432Val, Asn453Ser polymorphisms, and HNSCC risk. The Sensitivity analysis and publication bias also were performed to guarantee the statistical power. Overall, the pooled OR with 95% CIs indicated that CYP1B1 Leu432Val polymorphism was significantly related with HNSCC risk (for Val vs. Leu: OR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.03-1.25, P = 0.014, P(heterogeneity) = 0.141; for Val/Val vs. Leu/Leu: OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.06-1.60, P = 0.013, P heterogeneity = 0.253; for Val/Val vs. Leu/Leu + Leu/Val: OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.05-1.46, P = 0.013, P(heterogeneity) = 0.456). The similar results were also been found in succeeding analysis of HWE and stratified analysis of Caucasian population. Furthermore, no significant association between CYP1B1 Asn453Ser polymorphism and HNSCC risk was found in this meta-analysis. In conclusion, our meta-analysis demonstrates that CYP1B1 Leu432Val polymorphism may be a risk factor for developing HNSCC.

  8. Assessing interventions by quantitative risk assessment tools to reduce the risk of human salmonellosis from fresh minced pork meat in Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delhalle, L; Saegerman, C; Messens, W; Farnir, F; Korsak, N; Van der Stede, Y; Daube, G

    2009-11-01

    The risk of human salmonellosis through the consumption of minced pork meat in Belgium was assessed via a modular risk model covering pork meat production from lairage to human consumption. The main goal of the model was to give concrete options to reduce effectively the risk of human salmonellosis through the consumption of minced pork meat. These options (scenarios) were elaborated with reference to the international situation and the literature to give concrete and realistic possibilities for improving the microbiological quality of pork meat and to reduce the number of human salmonellosis cases per year in Belgium. The model estimates 15,376 cases of human salmonellosis per year in Belgium due to the consumption of minced pork meat. The results of the scenarios showed that the risk of human salmonellosis could be significantly reduced by efforts all along the pork meat production chain but also by efforts made by consumers. The responsibility of food business operators for the pork meat production chain is high in relation to the microbiological quality of meat delivery, especially at the slaughterhouse. Consumers also need to be aware of good hygiene practices during preparation of the meat at home. Cross-contamination with raw food can be avoided by changing the habits and the behavior of the household cook. The results of these scenarios would be useful for the food business operators involved in the pork meat chain and for public health authorities.

  9. 食品中微生物危害定量风险评估综述%Review on Quantitative Risk Assessment of Microbiological Hazards in Foods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高永超; 刘丽梅; 杨作明; 王玎

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, the frequent acts of quality dishonesty resulted in losses to consumers and disrupted the national economic. In China, food safety issues caused by microbiological hazards are of a large proportion in the whole account. Quantitative risk assessment of microbiological hazards can help the government and enterprises to enhance risk management capabilities, prevention and control of microbiological hazards, thereby improving overall food safety level. In this paper, the status of domestic and foreign research on quantitative risk assessment techniques of microbiological hazards in food is reviewed. Existing problems of these assessment techniques and future trends are analyzed.%近年来食品安全事件频发,给消费者带来了健康风险,也扰乱了国家经济秩序.在我国,由于食品中微生物危害导致的食品安全问题在总数中占很大比重.微生物危害的定量风险评估,能够帮助政府和企业增强风险管理能力,预防和控制微生物危害,从而提高整体食品安全水平.本文对当前国内外食品中微生物危害的定量风险评估技术的研究现状进行了综述,对现存的问题及未来的发展趋势进行了分析.

  10. A quantitative screening-level approach to incorporate chemical exposure and risk/safety into alternative assessment evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Scott M; Greggs, Bill; Goyak, Katy O; Landenberger, Bryce D; Mason, Ann M; Howard, Brett; Zaleski, Rosemary; Howard, Brett; Zaleski, Rosemary T

    2017-03-10

    As the general public and retailers ask for disclosure of chemical ingredients in the marketplace, a number of hazard screening tools were developed to evaluate the so called "greenness" of individual chemical ingredients and/or formulations. The majority of these tools focus only on hazard, often using chemical lists, ignoring the other part of the risk equation: exposure. Using a hazard-only focus can result in regrettable substitutions, changing one chemical ingredient for another that turns out to be more hazardous or shifts the toxicity burden to others. To minimize the incidents of regrettable substitutions, BizNGO describes 'Common Principles' to frame a process for informed substitution. Two of the six principles state reduce hazard and minimize exposure. A number of frameworks have emerged to evaluate and assess alternatives. One framework developed by leading experts under the auspices of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences recommended that hazard and exposure be specifically addressed in the same step when assessing candidate alternatives. For the alternative assessment community, this paper serves as an informational resource for considering exposure in an alternatives assessment using elements of problem formulation; product identity, use, and composition; hazard analysis; exposure analysis; and risk characterization. These conceptual elements build upon practices from government, academia, and industry and are exemplified through two hypothetical case studies demonstrating the questions asked and decisions faced in new product development. These two case studies - inhalation exposure to a generic paint product and environmental exposure to a shampoo rinsed down the drain - demonstrate the criteria, considerations, and methods required to combine exposure models addressing human health and environmental impacts to provide a screening level hazard/exposure (risk) analysis. This paper informs practices for these elements within a comparative risk

  11. A Risk Assessment Model for Reduced Aircraft Separation: A Quantitative Method to Evaluate the Safety of Free Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassell, Rick; Smith, Alex; Connors, Mary; Wojciech, Jack; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    As new technologies and procedures are introduced into the National Airspace System, whether they are intended to improve efficiency, capacity, or safety level, the quantification of potential changes in safety levels is of vital concern. Applications of technology can improve safety levels and allow the reduction of separation standards. An excellent example is the Precision Runway Monitor (PRM). By taking advantage of the surveillance and display advances of PRM, airports can run instrument parallel approaches to runways separated by 3400 feet with the same level of safety as parallel approaches to runways separated by 4300 feet using the standard technology. Despite a wealth of information from flight operations and testing programs, there is no readily quantifiable relationship between numerical safety levels and the separation standards that apply to aircraft on final approach. This paper presents a modeling approach to quantify the risk associated with reducing separation on final approach. Reducing aircraft separation, both laterally and longitudinally, has been the goal of several aviation R&D programs over the past several years. Many of these programs have focused on technological solutions to improve navigation accuracy, surveillance accuracy, aircraft situational awareness, controller situational awareness, and other technical and operational factors that are vital to maintaining flight safety. The risk assessment model relates different types of potential aircraft accidents and incidents and their contribution to overall accident risk. The framework links accident risks to a hierarchy of failsafe mechanisms characterized by procedures and interventions. The model will be used to assess the overall level of safety associated with reducing separation standards and the introduction of new technology and procedures, as envisaged under the Free Flight concept. The model framework can be applied to various aircraft scenarios, including parallel and in

  12. Quantitative cancer risk assessment based on NIOSH and UCC epidemiological data for workers exposed to ethylene oxide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez-Flores, Ciriaco; Sielken, Robert L; Teta, M Jane

    2010-04-01

    The most recent epidemiological data on individual workers in the NIOSH and updated UCC occupational studies have been used to characterize the potential excess cancer risks of environmental exposure to ethylene oxide (EO). In addition to refined analyses of the separate cohorts, power has been increased by analyzing the combined cohorts. In previous SMR analyses of the separate studies and the present analyses of the updated and pooled studies of over 19,000 workers, none of the SMRs for any combination of the 12 cancer endpoints and six sub-cohorts analyzed were statistically significantly greater than one including the ones of greatest previous interest: leukemia, lymphohematopoietic tissue, lymphoid tumors, NHL, and breast cancer. In our study, no evidence of a positive cumulative exposure-response relationship was found. Fitted Cox proportional hazards models with cumulative EO exposure do not have statistically significant positive slopes. The lack of increasing trends was corroborated by categorical analyses. Cox model estimates of the concentrations corresponding to a 1-in-a-million extra environmental cancer risk are all greater than approximately 1ppb and are more than 1500-fold greater than the 0.4ppt estimate in the 2006 EPA draft IRIS risk assessment. The reasons for this difference are identified and discussed. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Bone strength measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography and the risk of nonvertebral fractures: the osteoporotic fractures in men (MrOS) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheu, Yahtyng; Zmuda, Joseph M; Boudreau, Robert M; Petit, Moira A; Ensrud, Kristine E; Bauer, Douglas C; Gordon, Christopher L; Orwoll, Eric S; Cauley, Jane A

    2011-01-01

    Many fractures occur in individuals without osteoporosis defined by areal bone mineral density (aBMD). Inclusion of other aspects of skeletal strength may be useful in identifying at-risk subjects. We used surrogate measures of bone strength at the radius and tibia measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) to evaluate their relationships with nonvertebral fracture risk. Femoral neck (FN) aBMD, measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), also was included. The study population consisted of 1143 white men aged 69+ years with pQCT measures at the radius and tibia from the Minneapolis and Pittsburgh centers of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study. Principal-components analysis and Cox proportional-hazards modeling were used to identify 21 of 58 pQCT variables with a major contribution to nonvertebral incident fractures. After a mean 2.9 years of follow-up, 39 fractures occurred. Men without incident fractures had significantly greater bone mineral content, cross-sectional area, and indices of bone strength than those with fractures by pQCT. Every SD decrease in the 18 of 21 pQCT parameters was significantly associated with increased fracture risk (hazard ration ranged from 1.4 to 2.2) independent of age, study site, body mass index (BMI), and FN aBMD. Using area under the receiver operation characteristics curve (AUC), the combination of FN aBMD and three radius strength parameters individually increased fracture prediction over FN aBMD alone (AUC increased from 0.73 to 0.80). Peripheral bone strength measures are associated with fracture risk and may improve our ability to identify older men at high risk of fracture.

  14. Circulating YKL-40 Level, but not CHI3L1 Gene Variants, Is Associated with Atherosclerosis-Related Quantitative Traits and the Risk of Peripheral Artery Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Semon Wu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available YKL-40, a pleotropic cytokine, is emerging as a risk factor and a prognostic predictor of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We attempted to elucidate the genetic, clinical and biochemical correlates of circulating YKL-40 level and, by combining it with CHI3L1 gene variants, with the risk and long-term mortality of peripheral artery disease (PAD. Plasma YKL-40 concentrations were measured in 612 Taiwanese individuals who had no clinically overt systemic disease. Clinical parameters, CHI3L1 gene promoter variants and 18 biomarker levels were analyzed. Eighty-six PAD patients were further enrolled for analysis. Significant associations were found between CHI3L1 genotypes/haplotypes and YKL-40 levels for the health examination subjects (smallest p = 8.36 × 10−7 for rs4950928 and smallest p = 1.72 × 10−10 for haplotype TGG and also for PAD patients. For the health examination subjects, circulating YKL-40 level, but not CHI3L1 gene variants, were positively associated with age, smoking, and circulating levels of triglyceride, lipocalin 2 and multiple inflammatory biomarkers and negatively associated with low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Circulating YKL-40 level is also significantly associated with the risk of PAD (p = 3.3 × 10−23. Circulating YKL40 level, but not CHI3L1 gene promoter variants, is associated with the risk of PAD in Taiwanese. The association of YKL-40 levels with multiple quantitative traits relating to the risk of PAD may provide a molecular basis linking YKL-40 to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

  15. Determination of quantitative food consumption levels for use in microbial risk assessments: cheddar cheese as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahk, Gyung-Jin; Todd, Ewen C D

    2007-01-01

    Microbial risk assessment (MRA) is becoming increasingly used in the management of food safety because it can be used to quantify risks and help rank intervention strategies. The exposure assessment components of the assessments have become complex with many aspects of the contamination, survival, and growth of a pathogen in a food being taken into consideration. Insufficient consumption data constitutes an important data gap and consequently one of many sources of uncertainty in MRA even though the effects of uncertainty are smaller than those affecting bacterial concentration in foods. Therefore, food consumption data also play an important role in exposure assessment of MRA. In the United States, there are large-scale, nationwide sets of consumption data available for use in MRA, i.e., the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Newly released dietary interview data in the NHANES 2001 to 2002 survey show that it has been redesigned and that the data were sufficiently updated from previous versions to have more value for MRAs. We propose a model that can effectively use the new data sets and be incorporated into MRAs, using as an example consumption of Cheddar cheese/American-type cheese. This model included the prevalence of food eaten as well as the amount and frequency. We determined the amount of Cheddar/American cheese consumed per day with probability distribution (e.g., lognormal distribution). These could be further determined by gender, age, pregnancy, and combination food type, which we plan to do in the future. The frequency of the range of serving numbers for Cheddar/American cheese consumed per person per day and prevalence as the proportion of a population (e.g., survey respondents) eating a certain food in a day are also presented. Unlike traditional published mean values, the results of this model provide probability distribution intakes that can be compared with mean and median intakes. This allows values in the upper

  16. Quantitative analysis of risk factors associated with brucellosis in livestock in the Katavi-Rukwa ecosystem, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assenga, Justine A; Matemba, Lucas E; Malakalinga, Joseph J; Muller, Shabani K; Kazwala, Rudovick R

    2016-02-01

    Brucellosis is a neglected contagious bacterial disease of public health and economic importance. Nevertheless, its spread is not well known to many livestock farmers. Unmatched case control study was carried out to identify risk factors associated with brucellosis in cattle and goats at the herd level in Mpanda, Mlele and Nsimbo districts of Katavi region, in Tanzania between September 2012 and July 2013. A total of 138 adult respondents were selected randomly for the interview using a structured questionnaire. The criterion for inclusion was to have at least one Brucella-positive animal in the herd while the control was chosen from among the herds which these animals tested negative. The presence of seropositive herds were statistically linked (P brucellosis between animals and humans and the implementation of disease prevention and control programmes.

  17. Quantitative risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall based on direct costs of urban buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, Johnny Alexander; Hidalgo, Cesar Augusto

    2016-11-01

    This paper outlines a framework for risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall in urban buildings in the city of Medellín - Colombia, applying a model that uses a geographic information system (GIS). We applied a computer model that includes topographic, geological, geotechnical and hydrological features of the study area to assess landslide hazards using the Newmark's pseudo-static method, together with a probabilistic approach based on the first order and second moment method (FOSM). The physical vulnerability assessment of buildings was conducted using structural fragility indexes, as well as the definition of damage level of buildings via decision trees and using Medellin's cadastral inventory data. The probability of occurrence of a landslide was calculated assuming that an earthquake produces horizontal ground acceleration (Ah) and considering the uncertainty of the geotechnical parameters and the soil saturation conditions of the ground. The probability of occurrence was multiplied by the structural fragility index values and by the replacement value of structures. The model implemented aims to quantify the risk caused by this kind of disaster in an area of the city of Medellín based on different values of Ah and an analysis of the damage costs of this disaster to buildings under different scenarios and structural conditions. Currently, 62% of "Valle de Aburra" where the study area is located is under very low condition of landslide hazard and 38% is under low condition. If all buildings in the study area fulfilled the requirements of the Colombian building code, the costs of a landslide would be reduced 63% compared with the current condition. An earthquake with a return period of 475 years was used in this analysis according to the seismic microzonation study in 2002.

  18. quantitative assessment of the influence of cytochrome P450 1A2 gene polymorphism and colorectal cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Zhao

    Full Text Available Cytochrome P450 1A2 (CYP1A2 encodes a member of the cytochrome P450 superfamily of enzymes, which play a central role in activating and detoxifying many carcinogens and endogenous compounds thought to be involved in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC. The CYP1A2*C (rs2069514 and CYP1A2*F (rs762551 polymorphism are two of the most commonly studied polymorphisms of the gene for their association with risk of CRC, but the results are conflicting. To derive a more precise estimation of the relationship between CYP1A2 and genetic risk of CRC, we performed a comprehensive meta-analysis which included 7088 cases and 7568 controls from 12 published case-control studies. In a combined analysis, the summary per-allele odds ratio for CRC was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.83-1.00, P = 0.04, and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.68-1.22, P = 0.53, for CYP1A2 *F and *C allele, respectively. In the subgroup analysis by ethnicity, significant associations were found in Asians for CYP1A2*F and CYP1A2*C, while no significant associations were detected among Caucasian populations. Similar results were also observed using dominant genetic model. Potential sources of heterogeneity were explored by subgroup analysis and meta-regression. No significant heterogeneity was detected in most of comparisons. This meta-analysis suggests that the CYP1A2 *F and *C polymorphism is a protective factor against CRC among Asians.

  19. Traditional Methods versus Quantitative Sensory Testing of the Feet at Risk: Results from the Rotterdam Diabetic Foot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinkel, Willem D; Castro Cabezas, Manuel; Setyo, Jonathan H; Van Neck, Johan W; Coert, J Henk

    2017-03-01

    Diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy is one of the greatest risk factors for foot ulceration. The current study investigated the measurement properties of the Pressure-Specified Sensory Device in comparison with traditional threshold screening instruments, in several categories of sensory loss. Knowledge of these values may help to identify diabetics at risk for ulceration more reliably. A partially cross-sectional cohort study was carried out in patients with diabetes. Traditional instruments classified each patient into groups representing severity of diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy. Demographic characteristics, laboratory measures, and Pressure-Specified Sensory Device measurements were compared between groups. The Bland-Altman method was used to characterize reliability of the Pressure-Specified Sensory Device, and construct validity was determined by comparison with Semmes-Weinstein monofilaments. One hundred fifty-five diabetic patients were measured. Fifteen patients had a diabetic ulcer in their medical history, seven patients were insensate to the 10-g monofilament and had diminished vibration sense (group 1), 34 patients had diminished vibration sense but no elevated cutaneous threshold (group 2), and 99 patients acted as controls (no elevated cutaneous threshold or diminished vibration sense, group 3). The Pressure-Specified Sensory Device distinguished these groups with one-point static cutaneous thresholds alone. Semmes-Weinstein monofilament and Pressure-Specified Sensory Device measurements were not interchangeable. Spatial discrimination (two-point static and two-point moving discrimination) by the Pressure-Specified Sensory Device was more reliable compared with one-point static discrimination. Semmes-Weinstein monofilament (force in grams and pressure in grams per square millimeter) correlations with Pressure-Specified Sensory Device measurements differed between groups. The Pressure-Specified Sensory Device is able to distinguish between

  20. The BSE risk of processing meat and bone meal in nonruminant feed: a quantitative assessment for the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vos, Clazien J; Heres, Lourens

    2009-04-01

    The total ban on use of meat and bone meal (MBM) in livestock feed has been very successful in reducing bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) spread, but also implies a waste of high-quality proteins resulting in economic and ecological loss. Now that the BSE epidemic is fading out, a partial lifting of the MBM ban might be considered. The objective of this study was to assess the BSE risk for the Netherlands if MBM derived from animals fit for human consumption, i.e., category 3 MBM, would be used in nonruminant feed. A stochastic simulation model was constructed that calculates (1) the probability that infectivity of undetected BSE-infected cows ends up with calves and (2) the quantity of infectivity (Q(inf)) consumed by calves in case of such an incident. Three pathways were considered via which infectivity can reach cattle: (1) cross-contamination in the feed mill, (2) cross-contamination on the primary farm, and (3) pasture contamination. Model calculations indicate that the overall probability that infectivity ends up with calves is 3.2%. In most such incidents the Q(inf) is extremely small (median = 6.5 x 10(-12) ID(50); mean = 1.8 x 10(-4) ID(50)), corresponding to an average probability of 1.3 x 10(-4) that an incident results in >or=1 new BSE infections. Cross-contamination in the feed mill is the most risky pathway. Combining model results with Dutch BSE prevalence estimates for the coming years, it can be concluded that the BSE risk of using category 3 MBM derived from Dutch cattle in nonruminant feed is very low.

  1. Physics and Engineering Assessmetns of the K-DEMO Magnet Configuration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neilson, George H. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Brown, Thomas [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Increased attention is being given now to studies of next-step fusion facilities with nuclear missions. Among these, South Korea's K DEMO is unique in its focus on a high toroidal magnetic field, large major radius, steady-state tokamak design for the core of a facility to test fusion nuclear components in Phase I and, after upgrades, produce 500 MW of electricity in a Phase II. Innovative features of the K DEMO magnet set include the use of two toroidal field (TF) coil winding packs with conductor grading and a machine configuration designed for vertical maintenance. The magnet arrangement features large TF coils and widely spaced poloidal field (PF) coils to accommodate removal of in-vessel components as large modules. Physics and engineering assessments of the pre-conceptual K-DEMO magnet configuration are reported, including: 1) design point and operating space assessment, 2) conductor assessment, and 3) structural assessment. It is found that a reference design point at 6.8 m major radius and 7.4 T toroidal field provides sufficient operating margins for the 500 MWe Phase II mission. Analyses of candidate cable-in-conduit conductors provide predictions of critical current degradation, both in the initial load cycle and an additionally with cyclic loading. A first-pass global analysis of the magnet system found minimal out-of-plane deformations of the TF coil, but an overstress condition in the inner leg of the TF coil. However an analysis taking into account elastic-plastic behavior, frictional sliding, and displacement shows that the structure can safely carry the load. Although the design evolution is still at an early stage, these assessments support the design point choices to date and the expectation that a feasible solution for the high-field K DEMO magnet system can be found.

  2. Cluster analysis of bone microarchitecture from high resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography demonstrates two separate phenotypes associated with high fracture risk in men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, M H; Robinson, D E; Ward, K A; Javaid, M K; Walker-Bone, K; Cooper, C; Dennison, E M

    2016-07-01

    Osteoporosis is a major healthcare problem which is conventionally assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). New technologies such as high resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT) also predict fracture risk. HRpQCT measures a number of bone characteristics that may inform specific patterns of bone deficits. We used cluster analysis to define different bone phenotypes and their relationships to fracture prevalence and areal bone mineral density (BMD). 177 men and 159 women, in whom fracture history was determined by self-report and vertebral fracture assessment, underwent HRpQCT of the distal radius and femoral neck DXA. Five clusters were derived with two clusters associated with elevated fracture risk. "Cluster 1" contained 26 women (50.0% fractured) and 30 men (50.0% fractured) with a lower mean cortical thickness and cortical volumetric BMD, and in men only, a mean total and trabecular area more than the sex-specific cohort mean. "Cluster 2" contained 20 women (50.0% fractured) and 14 men (35.7% fractured) with a lower mean trabecular density and trabecular number than the sex-specific cohort mean. Logistic regression showed fracture rates in these clusters to be significantly higher than the lowest fracture risk cluster [5] (pcluster 5 in women in cluster 1 and 2 (pcluster 2 (pclusters in both men and women which may differ in etiology and response to treatment. As cluster 1 in men does not have low areal BMD, these men may not be identified as high risk by conventional DXA alone. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy green vegetables consumed at salad bars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, E; Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; van der Fels-Klerx, H J

    2010-02-01

    Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green vegetables in salad from salad bars in The Netherlands. Pathogen growth was modeled in Aladin (Agro Logistics Analysis and Design Instrument) using time-temperature profiles in the chilled supply chain and one particular restaurant with a salad bar. A second-order Monte Carlo risk assessment model was constructed (using @Risk) to estimate the public health effects. The temperature in the studied cold chain was well controlled below 5 degrees C. Growth of E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella was minimal (17 and 15%, respectively). Growth of L. monocytogenes was considerably greater (194%). Based on first-order Monte Carlo simulations, the average number of cases per year in The Netherlands associated the consumption leafy greens in salads from salad bars was 166, 187, and 0.3 for E. coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and L. monocytogenes, respectively. The ranges of the average number of annual cases as estimated by second-order Monte Carlo simulation (with prevalence and number of visitors as uncertain variables) were 42 to 551 for E. coli O157:H7, 81 to 281 for Salmonella, and 0.1 to 0.9 for L. monocytogenes. This study included an integration of modeling pathogen growth in the supply chain of fresh leafy vegetables destined for restaurant salad bars using software designed to model and design logistics and modeling the public health effects using probabilistic risk assessment software.

  4. Role of quantitative myocardial positron emission tomography for risk stratification in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a 2016 reappraisal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castagnoli, Helga; Passeri, Alessandro; Berti, Valentina; Sciagra, Roberto [University of Florence, Department of Experimental and Clinical Biomedical Sciences - Nuclear Medicine Unit, Firenze (Italy); Ferrantini, Cecilia; Coppini, Raffaele; Baldini, Katia; Cecchi, Franco; Olivotto, Iacopo [Careggi University Hospital, Referral Center for Myocardial Diseases and Genetic Diagnostics Unit, Florence (Italy)

    2016-12-15

    Myocardial blood flow <1.1 mL/min/g following dipyridamole (Dip-MBF) assessed by positron emission tomography (PET) was identified in 2003 as an important outcome predictor in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), based on scans performed in the 90s. However, such extreme Dip-MBF impairment is rarely observed in contemporary cohorts. We, therefore, reassessed the Dip-MBF threshold defining high-risk HCM patients. Dip-MBF was measured using {sup 13}N-ammonia in 100 HCM consecutive patients, prospectively enrolled and followed for 4.0 ± 2.2 years. Outcome was assessed based on tertiles of Dip-MBF. The study end-point was a combination of cardiovascular death, progression to severe functional limitation, cardioembolic stroke, life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias. Global Dip-MBF was 1.95 ± 0.85, ranging from 0.7 to 5.9 mL/min/g. Dip-MBF tertile cut-off values were: 0.73 to 1.53 mL/min/g (lowest), 1.54 to 2.13 mL/min/g (middle), and 2.14 to 5.89 mL/min/g (highest). During follow-up, lowest tertile Dip-MBF was associated with sevenfold independent risk of unfavorable outcome compared to the other two tertiles. Dip-MBF 1.35 mL/min/g was identified as the best threshold for outcome prediction. Regional perfusion analysis showed that all cardiac deaths (n = 4) occurred in patients in the lowest tertile of lateral wall Dip-MBF (≤1.72 mL/min/g); septal Dip-MBF was not predictive. Dip-MBF confirms its role as potent predictor of outcome in HCM. However, the threshold for prediction in a contemporary cohort is higher than that reported in earlier studies. Dip-MBF impairment in the lateral wall, possibly reflecting diffuse disease extending to non-hypertrophic regions, is a sensitive predictor of mortality in HCM. (orig.)

  5. Applied quantitative finance

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Cathy; Overbeck, Ludger

    2017-01-01

    This volume provides practical solutions and introduces recent theoretical developments in risk management, pricing of credit derivatives, quantification of volatility and copula modeling. This third edition is devoted to modern risk analysis based on quantitative methods and textual analytics to meet the current challenges in banking and finance. It includes 14 new contributions and presents a comprehensive, state-of-the-art treatment of cutting-edge methods and topics, such as collateralized debt obligations, the high-frequency analysis of market liquidity, and realized volatility. The book is divided into three parts: Part 1 revisits important market risk issues, while Part 2 introduces novel concepts in credit risk and its management along with updated quantitative methods. The third part discusses the dynamics of risk management and includes risk analysis of energy markets and for cryptocurrencies. Digital assets, such as blockchain-based currencies, have become popular b ut are theoretically challenging...

  6. Use of quantitative microbial risk assessment when investigating foodborne illness outbreaks: the example of a monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium 4,5,12:i:- outbreak implicating beef burgers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillier, Laurent; Danan, Corinne; Bergis, Hélène; Delignette-Muller, Marie-Laure; Granier, Sophie; Rudelle, Sylvie; Beaufort, Annie; Brisabois, Anne

    2013-09-16

    A major community outbreak of salmonellosis occurred in France in October 2010. Classical epidemiological investigations led to the identification of beef burgers as the cause of the outbreak and the presence of the emerging monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium 4,5,12:i:-. The objective of this study was to understand the events that led to this large outbreak, that is to say, what are the contributing factors associated with consumer exposure to Salmonella. To this end, intensive microbiological investigations on several beef burgers were conducted and a risk assessment model was built. The microbiological results confirm the presence of Salmonella in all analysed frozen burgers at high levels of contamination above 1000 MPN/g. These results in frozen burgers combined with a model of thermal destruction were used to estimate the dose ingested by the exposed persons. Most people that consumed cooked beef burgers were exposed from 1.6 to 3.1 log₁₀ (MPN). The number of sick people predicted with a dose-response relationship for Salmonella is consistent with the observed number of salmonellosis cases. The very high initial contamination level in frozen beef burgers is the primary cause of this large outbreak rather than bad cooking practices. Intensive investigations, modelling of the initial contamination and quantitative exposure and risk assessments are complementary to epidemiological investigation. They can be valuable elements for the assessment of missing information or the identification of the primary causes of outbreaks.

  7. A quantitative chemical industry area risk assessment model%化工园区区域定量风险评价及其应用研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马月鹏; 李竹霞; 倪凯; 杨柳

    2012-01-01

    讨论了化工园区域定量风险评价的基本程序和评价指标,提出了定量风险计算的个人风险和社会风险计算模型.利用SAFETI软件对碳一分公司进行定量风险计算,得出碳一分公司区域的个人风险等值线图和社会风险曲线图.依据计算结果分析碳一分公司化工园区域的风险现状.%The present paper aims to introduce our work in developing the quantitative chemical industry zone risk assessment model. As is known, with the ever-increasing rate of chemical works accidents, such as fire, explosion and toxic diffusion, it has become more and more urgent to enhance the research on how to analyze such disastrous accidents and prevent them more effectively, particularly, close attention to the study of the hazards taking place in industrial zones. As a matter of fact, most risk evaluation methods concerning the safety distance between the industrial zones and the human residential areas. Such research and evaluation items have been remarkably valuable due to their high subjective factors. On the contrary, industrial area quantitative risk assessment (IAQRA) is generally regarded as an effective method for evaluating the risks of chemical industry parks. It is just for the purpose of such research of the IAQRA, this paper has introduced the procedures of IAQRA and its evaluation criteria along with the calculation model of personal and social insurance risks. To increase the reliability of the evaluation results, we have done investigations over all the accidental scenarios concerning the e-valuation model and accumulate large amounts of related data from the actual process of the realistic disasters. Since the evaluation involves huge amounts of calculation in the IAQRA model, we have accomplished the whole work via computer-aided processing. In addition, we have also adopted SAFETI software developed by DNV for the risk assessment. With the help of SAFETI software, both the standards of the personal

  8. Fatores de risco em cadeia de suprimentos do setor aeroespacial: aspectos qualitativos e quantitativos Risk factors in aerospace supply chain: qualitative and quantitative aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Ayumi Funo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A falta de gerenciamento de risco pode gerar descontinuidade na cadeia de suprimentos e há pouca literatura sobre esse tema para o setor aeroespacial. Este artigo teve como objetivo identificar fatores de risco da cadeia de suprimentos do principal fabricante nacional de aeronaves. Nove fatores de riscos específicos para a empresa foram identificados: Ambiental, natural e político, Cadeia de suprimentos, Estratégia do negócio, Gerenciamento do produto, Indicadores, Organização, Produtividade, Qualidade e Sistema de informação. Esses fatores foram avaliados quantitativamente quanto a sua criticidade utilizando-se o analytic hierarchy process (AHP. Os fatores Qualidade e Produtividade foram considerados os mais relevantes nesta pesquisa, que pode ser classificada como estudo de caso único, sendo as informações necessárias obtidas por meio de entrevistas com profissionais experientes, representando diferentes áreas da empresa que foi objeto do estudo.The lack of risk management can generate disruption in the supply chain, and there is little literature related to the aerospace industry. This article aims at identifying the risk factors for supply chain of the main Brazilian aircraft manufacturer. Nine risk factors specific to aircraft manufacturers were identified: Environmental, Natural and Political, Supply Chain, Business Strategy, Product Management, Indicators, Organization, Productivity, and Quality and Information System. These factors were quantitatively evaluated with respect to their criticality using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. The Quality and Productivity factors were considered the most relevant in this study, which can be classified as a single case study. The necessary data were obtained through interviews with professionals from different areas of the studied enterprise.

  9. Dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance perfusion imaging in high-risk smokers and smoking-related COPD: correlations with pulmonary function tests and quantitative computed tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Yi; Guan, Yu; Fan, Li; Liu, Shi-Yuan; Yu, Hong; Zhao, Li-Ming; Li, Bing

    2014-09-01

    The study aimed to prospectively evaluate correlations between dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MR perfusion imaging, pulmonary function tests (PFT) and volume quantitative CT in smokers with or without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and to determine the value of DCE-MR perfusion imaging and CT volumetric imaging on the assessment of smokers. According to the ATS/ERS guidelines, 51 male smokers were categorized into five groups: At risk for COPD (n = 8), mild COPD (n = 9), moderate COPD (n = 12), severe COPD (n = 10), and very severe COPD (n = 12). Maximum slope of increase (MSI), positive enhancement integral (PEI), etc. were obtained from MR perfusion data. The signal intensity ratio (RSI) of the PDs and normal lung was calculated (RSI = SIPD/SInormal). Total lung volume (TLV), total emphysema volume (TEV) and emphysema index (EI) were obtained from volumetric CT data. For "at risk for COPD," the positive rate of PDs on MR perfusion images was higher than that of abnormal changes on non-enhanced CT images (p < 0.05). Moderate-to-strong positive correlations were found between all the PFT parameters and SIPD, or RSI (r range 0.445∼0.683, p ≤ 0.001). TEV and EI were negatively correlated better with FEV1/FVC than other PFT parameters (r range -0.48 --0.63, p < 0.001). There were significant differences in RSI and SIPD between "at risk for COPD" and "very severe COPD," and between "mild COPD" and "very severe COPD". Thus, MR perfusion imaging may be a good approach to identify early evidence of COPD and may have potential to assist in classification of COPD.

  10. Health-Risk Behaviour in Deprived Neighbourhoods Compared with Non-Deprived Neighbourhoods: A Systematic Literature Review of Quantitative Observational Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Holst Algren

    Full Text Available There has been increasing interest in neighbourhoods' influence on individuals' health-risk behaviours, such as smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and diet. The aim of this review was to systematically review recent studies on health-risk behaviour among adults who live in deprived neighbourhoods compared with those who live in non-deprived neighbourhoods and to summarise what kind of operationalisations of neighbourhood deprivation that were used in the studies.PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews were followed. Systematic searches were performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Sociological Abstracts using relevant search terms, Boolean operators, and truncation, and reference lists were scanned. Quantitative observational studies that examined health-risk behaviour in deprived neighbourhoods compared with non-deprived neighbourhoods were eligible for inclusion.The inclusion criteria were met by 22 studies. The available literature showed a positive association between smoking and physical inactivity and living in deprived neighbourhoods compared with non-deprived neighbourhoods. In regard to low fruit and vegetable consumption and alcohol consumption, the results were ambiguous, and no clear differences were found. Numerous different operationalisations of neighbourhood deprivation were used in the studies.Substantial evidence indicates that future health interventions in deprived neighbourhoods should focus on smoking and physical inactivity. We suggest that alcohol interventions should be population based rather than based on the specific needs of deprived neighbourhoods. More research is needed on fruit and vegetable consumption. In future studies, the lack of a uniform operationalisation of neighbourhood deprivation must be addressed.

  11. Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk in Małopolska (Poland), Supported by an Object-Based Analysis of High-Resolution Satellite Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drzewiecki, Wojciech; Wężyk, Piotr; Pierzchalski, Marcin; Szafrańska, Beata

    2014-06-01

    In 2011 the Marshal Office of Małopolska Voivodeship decided to evaluate the vulnerability of soils to water erosion for the entire region. The quantitative and qualitative assessment of the erosion risk for the soils of the Małopolska region was done based on the USLE approach. The special work-flow of geoinformation technologies was used to fulfil this goal. A high-resolution soil map, together with rainfall data, a detailed digital elevation model and statistical information about areas sown with particular crops created the input information for erosion modelling in GIS environment. The satellite remote sensing technology and the object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach gave valuable support to this study. RapidEye satellite images were used to obtain the essential up-to-date data about land use and vegetation cover for the entire region (15,000 km2). The application of OBIA also led to defining the direction of field cultivation and the mapping of contour tillage areas. As a result, the spatially differentiated values of erosion control practice factor were used. Both, the potential and the actual soil erosion risk were assessed quantificatively and qualitatively. The results of the erosion assessment in the Małopolska Voivodeship reveal the fact that a majority of its agricultural lands is characterized by moderate or low erosion risk levels. However, high-resolution erosion risk maps show its substantial spatial diversity. According to our study, average or higher actual erosion intensity levels occur for 10.6 % of agricultural land, i.e. 3.6 % of the entire voivodeship area. In 20 % of the municipalities there is a very urgent demand for erosion control. In the next 23 % an urgent erosion control is needed. Our study showed that even a slight improvement of P-factor estimation may have an influence on modeling results. In our case, despite a marginal change of erosion assessment figures on a regional scale, the influence on the final prioritization of

  12. Human campylobacteriosis related to the consumption of raw milk sold by vending machines in Italy: Quantitative risk assessment based on official controls over four years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, Federica; Bonilauri, Paolo; Amatiste, Simonetta; Arrigoni, Norma; Bianchi, Manila; Losio, Marina Nadia; Bilei, Stefano; Cascone, Giuseppe; Comin, Damiano; Daminelli, Paolo; Decastelli, Lucia; Merialdi, Giuseppe; Mioni, Renzo; Peli, Angelo; Petruzzelli, Annalisa; Tonucci, Franco; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2015-09-01

    A quantitative risk assessment (RA) model was developed to describe the risk of campylobacteriosis linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. Exposure assessment was based on the official microbiological records of raw milk samples from vending machines monitored by the regional Veterinary Authorities from 2008 to 2011, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, consumption preference and age of consumers. The differential risk considered milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst time-temperature field handling conditions detected. Two separate RA models were developed, one for the consumption of boiled milk and the other for the consumption of raw milk, and two different dose-response (D-R) relationships were considered. The RA model predicted no human campylobacteriosis cases per year either in the best (4°C) storage conditions or in the case of thermal abuse in case of boiling raw milk, whereas in case of raw milk consumption the annual estimated campylobacteriosis cases depend on the dose-response relationships used in the model (D-R I or D-R II), the milk time-temperature storage conditions, consumer behaviour and age of consumers, namely young (with two cut-off values of ≤5 or ≤6 years old for the sensitive population) versus adult consumers. The annual estimated cases for young consumers using D-R II for the sensitive population (≤5 years old) ranged between 1013.7/100,000 population and 8110.3/100,000 population and for adult consumers using D-R I between 79.4/100,000 population and 333.1/100,000 population. Quantification of the risks associated with raw milk consumption is necessary from a public health perspective and the proposed RA model represents a useful and flexible tool to perform future RAs based on local consumer habits to support decision-making on safety policies. Further educational programmes for raw milk

  13. The burden of drinking water-associated cryptosporidiosis in China: the large contribution of the immunodeficient population identified by quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Shumin; An, Wei; Chen, Zhimin; Zhang, Dongqing; Yu, Jianwei; Yang, Min

    2012-09-01

    A comprehensive quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of Cryptosporidium infection, considering pathogen removal efficiency, different exposure pathways and different susceptible subpopulations, was performed based on the result of a survey of source water from 66 waterworks in 33 major cities across China. The Cryptosporidium concentrations in source water were 0-6 oocysts/10 L, with a mean value of 0.7 oocysts/10 L. The annual diarrhea morbidity caused by Cryptosporidium in drinking water was estimated to be 2701 (95% confidence interval (CI): 138-9381) cases per 100,000 immunodeficient persons and 148 (95% CI: 1-603) cases per 100,000 immunocompetent persons, giving an overall rate of 149.0 (95% CI: 1.3-606.4) cases per 100,000 population. The cryptosporidiosis burden associated with drinking water treated with the conventional process was calculated to be 8.31 × 10(-6) (95% CI: 0.34-30.93 × 10(-6)) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per person per year, which was higher than the reference risk level suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO), but lower than that suggested by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Sixty-six percent of the total health burden due to cryptosporidiosis that occurred in the immunodeficient subpopulation, and 90% of the total DALYs was attributed to adults aged 15-59 years. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the great importance of stability of the treatment process and the importance of watershed protection. The results of this study will be useful in better evaluating and reducing the burden of Cryptosporidium infection.

  14. Quantitative Study of Typical Mine Tunnel Fire Risk%某矿井巷道火灾风险定量研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李小菊; 朱杰; 代君雨; 宋云龙

    2016-01-01

    对巷道火灾开展定量研究 ,能更好地制定具有较强针对性的巷道火灾预防及防治措施.以某煤矿矿井为研究对象 ,结合其安全现状对矿井巷道进行分类 ,分析巷道火灾事故的诱发因素 ,在此基础上应用火灾风险指数法对其进行火灾可能性评价 ,最后结合模糊综合评价法对该矿井巷道火灾风险性进行分析 ,提出相应的预防措施及建议 ,为矿井巷道火灾现场扑救及火灾综合防治提供参考.%Quantitative research on tunnel fire can better develop strong sector-specific tunnel fire prevention and control measures .In this paper ,a coal mine in Sichuan as the object of study ,firstly in accordance with its safety condition the mine roadway is classified and tunnel fire accident contributing factors are analyzed;on the basis ,the fire risk index method is used to assess the fire potential;eventually combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method analysis ,the mine fire risk is analyzed and some corresponding preventive measures and recommendations are put forward ,which provides refer-ences for comprehensive control method of mine fire extinguishing .

  15. Neighbourhood risk factors for Common Mental Disorders among young people aged 10-20 years: a structured review of quantitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Sarah; Pain, Rachel; Fuller, Sara; Khatib, Yasmin; Rothon, Catherine; Stansfeld, Stephen A; Daya, Shari

    2013-03-01

    We present a critical review of research concerning the vulnerability of mental health of young people in the 10-20 year age range to neighbourhood factors that are theoretically associated with increased risk of Common Mental Disorders (CMDs). We interpreted 'neighbourhood factors' as attributes and processes in the local social and physical environment that young people inhabit, beyond the immediate household. We conducted an extensive search, and a structured method of assessment of the research papers that met our search criteria. We draw conclusions about the research evidence on this topic and identify issues needing further discussion and investigation. We focus particularly on quantitative research that aims to measure these relationships. We note that parallel to this research, a significant body of qualitative research on the geographical experiences of young people (though not specifically on their mental health) offers a rich source of background information to illuminate the statistical findings. We conclude with some reflections on the future challenges for research in this field.

  16. Increased brain iron deposition is a risk factor for brain atrophy in patients with haemodialysis: a combined study of quantitative susceptibility mapping and whole brain volume analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Chao; Zhang, Mengjie; Long, Miaomiao; Chu, Zhiqiang; Wang, Tong; Wang, Lijun; Guo, Yu; Yan, Shuo; Haacke, E Mark; Shen, Wen; Xia, Shuang

    2015-08-01

    To explore the correlation between increased brain iron deposition and brain atrophy in patients with haemodialysis and their correlation with clinical biomarkers and neuropsychological test. Forty two patients with haemodialysis and forty one age- and gender-matched healthy controls were recruited in this prospective study. 3D whole brain high resolution T1WI and susceptibility weighted imaging were scanned on a 3 T MRI system. The brain volume was analyzed using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) in patients and to compare with that of healthy controls. Quantitative susceptibility mapping was used to measure and compare the susceptibility of different structures between patients and healthy controls. Correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationship between the brain volume, iron deposition and neuropsychological scores. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to explore the effect of clinical biomarkers on the brain volumes in patients. Compared with healthy controls, patients with haemodialysis showed decreased volume of bilateral putamen and left insular lobe (All P putamen, substantia nigra, red nucleus and dentate nucleus were significantly higher (All P putamen (P putamen (P < 0.05). Our study indicated increased brain iron deposition and dialysis duration was risk factors for brain atrophy in patients with haemodialysis. The decreased gray matter volume of the left insular lobe was correlated with neurocognitive impairment.

  17. Risco privado em infra-estrutura pública: uma análise quantitativa de risco como ferramenta de modelagem de contratos Private risk in public infrastructure: a quantitative risk analysis as a contract modeling tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz E. T. Brandão

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Parcerias público-privadas (PPP são arranjos contratuais onde o governo assume compromissos futuros por meio de garantias e opções. São alternativas para aumentar a eficiência do Estado por uma alocação mais eficiente de incentivos e riscos. No entanto, a determinação do nível ótimo de garantias e a própria alocação de riscos são geralmente realizadas de forma subjetiva, podendo levar o governo a ter que assumir passivos significativos. Este artigo propõe um modelo de valoração quantitativa de garantias governamentais em projetos de PPP por meio da metodologia das opções reais, e este modelo é aplicado a um projeto de concessão rodoviária. Os autores analisam o impacto de diversos níveis de garantia de receita sobre o valor e risco do projeto, bem como o valor esperado do desembolso futuro do governo em cada uma das situações, concluindo que é possível ao poder público determinar o nível ótimo de garantia em função do grau de redução de risco desejado, e que o desenho e a modelagem contratual de projetos de PPP podem se beneficiar de ferramentas quantitativas aqui apresentadas.Public private partnerships (PPP are contractual arrangements in which the government assumes future obligations by providing project guarantees. They are considered a way of increasing government efficiency through a more efficient allocation of risks and incentives. On the other hand, the assessment and determination the optimal level of these guarantees is usually subjective, exposing the government to potentially high future liabilities. This article proposes a quantitative model for the evaluation of government guarantees in PPP projects under the real options approach, and applies this model to a toll highway concession with a minimum revenue guarantee. It studies the impact of different guarantee levels on the value and the risk of the project, as well as the expected level of future cash payments to be made by the government in

  18. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Vibrio Parahaemolyticus in Short Necked Clam%杂色蛤中副溶血弧菌的定量风险评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李寿崧; 吴英娇; 宁芊; 吴文忠; 方成俊

    2012-01-01

    基于国际食品法典委员会关于微生物定量风险评估的理论框架,研究了从水产品批发市场到各零售点(主要为超市)杂色蛤中副溶血弧菌的动态变化情况,对因食用杂色蛤感染副溶血弧菌而引发疾病的风险进行预测,预测出每年、每人因消费生杂色蛤而导致由副溶血弧菌引发的食源性疾病的可能平均值被估计为1.65×10-8.同时对杂色蛤的另一种食用模式——烧烤,也进行了分析研究,确定因其所导致的风险十分小,可以不作为评估的对象.最后根据研究的结果提出针对政府监管部门的管理以及商业运营者和消费者的建议,这些风险管理措施、控制程序和安全食用规范的实施,均可大大降低因食用杂色蛤而感染副溶血弧菌并引发疾病的风险.%The dynamic variation of V. parahaemolyticus in short necked clam from the aquatic wholesale market to each point-of-sale (mainly for the supermarket) was studied based on theory framework of in- ternational food Codex Alimentarius Commission (CAC) about quantitative microbial risk assessment, combined with the reality of China and Fujian province. At the same time, the density of V. parahaemo- lyticus was detected by sampling from point-of-sale to compare with the prediction. Based on the Probabil- ity density of V. parahaemolyticus in short necked clam and the estimated number of servings consumed, the risk prediction of getting disease by consuming raw short necked clam is 1.65 ×10-8 per year. Mean- while, it also come to a conclusion that it is not necessary to analyze the risk which was caused by another cooking model barbecue, because of its minimum probability. Finally, some advices were proposed for government management, business operations and consumers. The implementation of these risk man- agement measures, control procedures and safety eating standards, would be helpful to reduce the risk of disease greatly infected by V

  19. sQMRA在微生物定量风险评估中的应用%Application of sQMRA in quantitative microbiological risk assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱江辉; 李凤琴

    2011-01-01

    Objective A swift quantitative microbiological risk assessment (sQMRA) tool was introduced as an example in the risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (VP) gastroenteritis caused by comsuming oysters in Fujian province.Methods The database of Chinese national nutrition and health survey in 2002, paper reviewing and empirical inferring,11 parameters, such as the oyster consumption data and VP contamination level at retail, influence of cross-contamination and preparation on the number of colony forming unit of VP were estimated. Results It was calculated that about 10 221 and 1 022 people infected by VP and had gastroenteritis respectively during September to November in 2008. The estimated probability of VP gastroenteritis was 2. 8 × 10 -5 which was very close to that estimated based on the surveillance study, 3.8 × 10-5. Conclusion The sQMRA is easy and appropriate for quick QMRA estimation.%目的 以福建省人群食用牡蛎引起副溶血性弧茵(VP)胃肠炎的风险为例,介绍一种快速的风险评估工具(sQMRA)在微生物定量风险评估中的应用.方法 利用结果、文献报告和经验推断等方式,对福建省2008年9-11月牡蛎的消费量和零售阶段VP的污染水平、交叉污染和烹制对VP茵落数的影响等共11个参数进行了推算和引用.结果 计算得到福建省2008年9-11月VP的感染人数为10 221人,其中有1 022人罹惠VP胃肠炎,推算得到的VP胃肠炎的发病概率为2.8×10-5,与人群监测推算的VP胃肠炎发病概率3.8×10-5结果较为接近.结论 sQMRA是一种快速简便有效的微生物定量风险评估工具.

  20. Research on quantitative risk assessment in chemical park based on domino effect model%基于多米诺效应的化工园区定量风险评估方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马科伟; 朱建新; 包士毅

    2011-01-01

    In order to quantitatively assess the risk of chemical park, a domino-based model was introduced for modeling the domino-caused risks. The definition, characteristics and mechanism of domino effect were introduced in this model. The probability of damages and human vulnerabilities caused by different primary hazardous events was also proposed and then used for the quantitative assessment of both individual and societal risks created by the chemical park. The individual and societal risks (F N curve), together with associated quantitative methods were also involved. It was found that, by applying the method in real case, the risk caused by domino effect can be dramatically increased. This finding would be beneficial to the safety planning and risk management of chemical parks.%探讨了多米诺效应的定义,特点及其发生机理,对基于多米诺效应的定量风险评估方法进行了研究.针对不同初始事件的物理效应因素给出了目标设备损害几率的计算方法,运用人体损伤模型对事故后果进行定量分析,量化了风险,给出个人风险图和F-N社会风险曲线.实例计算表明:多米诺效应明显扩大了事故风险.通过多米诺效应分析有利于园区的安全规划和管理.

  1. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  2. Quantitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Roger

    2015-04-01

    This article describes the basic tenets of quantitative research. The concepts of dependent and independent variables are addressed and the concept of measurement and its associated issues, such as error, reliability and validity, are explored. Experiments and surveys – the principal research designs in quantitative research – are described and key features explained. The importance of the double-blind randomised controlled trial is emphasised, alongside the importance of longitudinal surveys, as opposed to cross-sectional surveys. Essential features of data storage are covered, with an emphasis on safe, anonymous storage. Finally, the article explores the analysis of quantitative data, considering what may be analysed and the main uses of statistics in analysis.

  3. Applications of Quantitative Area Risk Assessment to the Manufactory of Civil Explosives%区域定量风险评价方法在民用爆炸物品生产企业中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    侯海周; 胡毅亭; 杨家福; 王大寰

    2011-01-01

    Dangerous sources in the manufactory of the civil explosives are the important factors affecting the level of area safety.A Quantitative Area Risk Assessment (QARA) method and its applications to the planning for dangerous sources were briefly introduced.A model of the method on area risk assessment is developed.The individual and social risk indexes, the acceptable risk levels of individual risk and social risk as well as the calculating procedures are briefly proposed based on the existing criteria of individual risk and social risk from other countries.The detailed steps, main work contents, and general methods concerned and noticed in the quantitative risk assessment procedure are given.These are very helpful to the applications of QARA.The QARA is utilized to assess the manufactory of the civil explosives.The individual risk contour and the social risk chart are obtained after the analysis.The method could not only reflect the distribution of regional risks, but also provide a decision support for the planning and layout of the risk sources in the manufactory of civil explosives.%为合理规划民用爆炸物品生产企业的危险源,明确企业对所在区域的影响,总结并完善了区域定量风险评价指标,建立了风险计算模型,给出了个人风险和社会风险的可接受标准,并对某民用爆炸物品生产企业进行了安全评估.通过分析计算,得到了该企业的个人风险等值线图和社会风险图.结果表明,该企业的个人风险和社会风险均未超过推荐标准的可接受风险水平,说明区域定量风险评价方法在民用爆炸物品生产企业的安全评价中具有应用价值,对民用爆炸物品生产企业的规划选址与总图布置具有一定的指导意义.

  4. A qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk perception and treatment options as related to wildfires in the USDA FS Region 3 National Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingrid M. Martin; Wade E. Martin; Carol B. Raish

    2011-01-01

    As the incidence of devastating fires rises, managing the risk posed by these fires has become critical. This report provides important information to examine the ways that different groups or disaster subcultures develop the mentalities or perceived realities that affect their views and responses concerning risk and disaster preparedness. Fire risk beliefs and...

  5. Health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the source water and drinking water of China: Quantitative analysis based on published monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Xu-Xiang; Cheng, Shu-Pei

    2011-12-01

    A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in source water and drinking water of China was conducted using probabilistic techniques from a national perspective. The published monitoring data of PAHs were gathered and converted into BaP equivalent (BaP(eq)) concentrations. Based on the transformed data, comprehensive risk assessment was performed by considering different age groups and exposure pathways. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The risk analysis indicated that, the risk values for children and teens were lower than the accepted value (1.00E-05), indicating no significant carcinogenic risk. The probability of risk values above 1.00E-05 was 5.8% and 6.7% for adults and lifetime groups, respectively. Overall, carcinogenic risks of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China were mostly accepted. However, specific regions, such as Yellow river of Lanzhou reach and Qiantang river should be paid more attention. Notwithstanding the uncertainties inherent in the risk assessment, this study is the first attempt to provide information on carcinogenic risk of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China, and might be useful for potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction.

  6. 镇域生态环境风险定量分析%Quantitative Risk Analysis of Eco- Environment Quality in Towns

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尚玲玲; 林艳新

    2011-01-01

    evaluation of eco - environment quality for town comprehensively and objectively. It is a suitable method for eco - environmental quantitative risk analysis of Chinese towns.

  7. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  8. Evaluation of sanitary impact of environmental pollution and quantitative evaluation of sanitary risks; Estimation de l'impact sanitaire d'une pollution environnementale et evaluation quantitative des risques sanitaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-09-15

    The calculation of a sanitary impact present a great interest at the decision level for the decision-makers and the whole of concerned actors. It constitutes a first step to organize a social debate around the risk acceptance, to analyze the feasibility of an inquiry or an epidemiological surveillance or to proportion an activity leading to pollutants emission in natural medium. Several conclusions are brought out: it is justified to estimate a sanitary impact from a sanitary risk excess, especially coming from animal tissue. It is conceivable to go beyond an estimation of the only individual risk and to calculate a number of cases in excess in the concerned population. The working group underlines that the characteristics of the situation are the determining factor to give the type of response to bring. The effective of the population is an important element and a situation has not to be underestimated because of the size at the pretext that the excess calculation leads to a number of cases inferior to one leading to believe that the impact is minor or negligible while the individual probability is high. The sanitary impact, expressed by the number of cancer cases in excess in an exposed population is quantified from the average value of excess of sanitary risk multiplied by the population effective, and expressed with a confidence interval. The sanitary impact can be expressed under the form of a percentage of the population present in the exposure area and goes past the comparison marks usually pointed up. This practice must be cheered. An analysis of uncertainties must be made as often as possible. (N.C.)

  9. Performance of two quantitative PCR methods for microbial source tracking of human sewage and implications for microbial risk assessment in recreational waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Before new, rapid quantitative PCR (qPCR) methods for recreational water quality assessment and microbial source tracking (MST) can be useful in a regulatory context, an understanding of the ability of the method to detect a DNA target (marker) when the contaminant soure has been...

  10. Simulation Analysis of Quantitative Analysis Model of Personal Credit Risk Assessment in Commercial Banks%商业银行个人信贷风险评估的定量分析模型仿真分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宋强; 刘洋

    2015-01-01

    商业银行个人信贷受到管理不到位、风险信息管理系统滞后等因素的影响,需要进行商业银行个人信贷风险评估的定量分析模型构建,提高商业银行信贷风险管理的能力。提出一种基于多层步进动态评估的商业银行个人信贷风险评估的定量分析模型。首先进行了商业银行个人信贷风险种类分析和影响因素分析,构建商业银行个人信贷的风险评估参量评价体系,根据先期的数据分析,计算得到商业银行个人信贷风险标准中的等级梯度值,进行商业银行个人信贷风险评估的定量分析模型优化设计。仿真结果表明,采用该模型进行商业银行个人信贷风险评估的定量分析,数据分析拟合结果准确,能有效抵御信贷风险,通过多渠道建立有效的损失补偿机制,提高商业银行的信贷风险防控能力。%Personal credit in commercial banks affected by factors such as not in place management and lagged behind risk information management system, it is necessary to build up the quantitative analysis model of personal credit risk as⁃sessment in commercial banks to improve their capacity in credit risk management. Therefore, a kind of quantitative anal⁃ysis model of personal credit risk assessment in commercial banks is proposed based on multilayer step-by-step dynamic assessment. First, the article analyzes the types and influence factors of commercial banks' personal credit risks, then es⁃ tablish the parameters evaluation system of personal credit risk assessment in commercial banks, according to preliminary data analysis, calculates the rank gradient value in the personal credit risk standard of commercial banks, then optimizes the design of quantitative analysis model for commercial banks' personal credit risk assessment. The simulation results show that adopting this model to proceed the quantitative analysis for personal credit risk assessment of commercial

  11. Quantitative risk assessment of haemolytic and uremic syndrome linked to O157:H7 and non-O157:H7 Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli strains in raw milk soft cheeses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrin, Frédérique; Tenenhaus-Aziza, Fanny; Michel, Valérie; Miszczycha, Stéphane; Bel, Nadège; Sanaa, Moez

    2015-01-01

    Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) strains may cause human infections ranging from simple diarrhea to Haemolytic Uremic Syndrome (HUS). The five main pathogenic serotypes of STEC (MPS-STEC) identified thus far in Europe are O157:H7, O26:H11, O103:H2, O111:H8, and O145:H28. Because STEC strains can survive or grow during cheese making, particularly in soft cheeses, a stochastic quantitative microbial risk assessment model was developed to assess the risk of HUS associated with the five MPS-STEC in raw milk soft cheeses. A baseline scenario represents a theoretical worst-case scenario where no intervention was considered throughout the farm-to-fork continuum. The risk level assessed with this baseline scenario is the risk-based level. The impact of seven preharvest scenarios (vaccines, probiotic, milk farm sorting) on the risk-based level was expressed in terms of risk reduction. Impact of the preharvest intervention ranges from 76% to 98% of risk reduction with highest values predicted with scenarios combining a decrease of the number of cow shedding STEC and of the STEC concentration in feces. The impact of postharvest interventions on the risk-based level was also tested by applying five microbiological criteria (MC) at the end of ripening. The five MCs differ in terms of sample size, the number of samples that may yield a value larger than the microbiological limit, and the analysis methods. The risk reduction predicted varies from 25% to 96% by applying MCs without preharvest interventions and from 1% to 96% with combination of pre- and postharvest interventions.

  12. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy green vegetables consumed at salad bars, based on modeling supply chain logistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; Franz, E

    2010-10-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference between simulating supply chain logistics (MOD) and assuming fixed storage times (FIX) in microbial risk estimation for the supply chain of fresh-cut leafy green vegetables destined for working-canteen salad bars. The results of the FIX model were previously published (E. Franz, S. O. Tromp, H. Rijgersberg, and H. J. van der Fels-Klerx, J. Food Prot. 73:274-285, 2010). Pathogen growth was modeled using stochastic discrete-event simulation of the applied logistics concept. The public health effects were assessed by conducting an exposure assessment and risk characterization. The relative growths of Escherichia coli O157 (17%) and Salmonella enterica (15%) were identical in the MOD and FIX models. In contrast, the relative growth of Listeria monocytogenes was considerably higher in the MOD model (1,156%) than in the FIX model (194%). The probability of L. monocytogenes infection in The Netherlands was higher in the MOD model (5.18×10(-8)) than in the FIX model (1.23×10(-8)). The risk of listeriosis-induced fetal mortality in the perinatal population increased from 1.24×10(-4) (FIX) to 1.66×10(-4) (MOD). Modeling the probabilistic nature of supply chain logistics is of additional value for microbial risk assessments regarding psychrotrophic pathogens in food products for which time and temperature are the postharvest preventive measures in guaranteeing food safety.

  13. Quantitative analysis and reduction of the eco-toxicity risk of heavy metals for the fine fraction of automobile shredder residue (ASR) using H2O2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jiwan; Yang, Jae-Kyu; Chang, Yoon-Young

    2016-02-01

    Automobile shredder residue (ASR) fraction (size <0.25mm) can be considered as hazardous due to presence of high concentrations of heavy metals. Hydrogen peroxide combined with nitric acid has been used for the recovery of heavy metals (Zn, Cu, Mn, Fe, Ni, Pb, Cd and Cr) from the fine fraction of ASR. A sequential extraction procedure has also been used to determine the heavy metal speciation in the fine fraction of ASR before and after treatment. A risk analysis of the fine fraction of ASR before and after treatment was conducted to assess the bioavailability and eco-toxicity of heavy metals. These results showed that the recovery of heavy metals from ASR increased with an increase in the hydrogen peroxide concentration. A high concentration of heavy metals was found to be present in Cbio fractions (the sum of the exchangeable and carbonate fractions) in the fine fraction of ASR, indicating high toxicity risk. The Cbio rate of all selected heavy metals was found to range from 8.6% to 33.4% of the total metal content in the fine fraction of ASR. After treatment, Cbio was reduced to 0.3-3.3% of total metal upon a treatment with 2.0% hydrogen peroxide. On the basis of the risk assessment code (RAC), the environmental risk values for heavy metals in the fine fraction of ASR reflect high risk/medium risk. However, after treatment, the heavy metals would be categorized as low risk/no risk. The present study concludes that hydrogen peroxide combined with nitric acid is a promising treatment for the recovery and reduction of the eco-toxicity risk of heavy metals in ASR.

  14. Quantitative assessment of possible human health risk associated with consumption of arsenic contaminated groundwater and wheat grains from Ropar Wetand and its environs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sakshi; Kaur, Jagdeep; Nagpal, Avinash Kaur; Kaur, Inderpreet

    2016-09-01

    Arsenic (As) is a carcinogenic metalloid that enters food chain through food and water and poses health risk to living beings. It is important to assess the As status in the environment and risks associated with it. Hence, a risk assessment study was conducted across Ropar wetland, Punjab, India and its environs in pre-monsoon season of 2013, to estimate the risk posed to adults and children via daily consumption of As contaminated groundwater and wheat grains. Arsenic concentrations determined in groundwater, soil and wheat grain samples using atomic absorption spectrometer ranged from 2.90 to 10.56 μg L(-1), 0.06 to 0.12 mg kg(-1) and 0.03 to 0.21 mg kg(-1), respectively. Arsenic in wheat grains showed significant negative correlation with phosphate content in soil indicating a competitive uptake of arsenate and phosphate ions by plants. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis suggested that both natural and anthropogenic factors contribute to variation in As content and other variables studied in soil and groundwater samples. Total cancer risk and hazard index were higher than the USEPA safety limits of 1.00 × 10(-6) and 1, respectively, for both adults and children indicating a high risk of cancer and other health disorders. Consumption of As contaminated wheat grains was found to pose higher risk of cancer and non-cancer health disorders as compared to intake of As contaminated groundwater by both adults and children. Moreover, children were found to be more prone to cancer and other heath disorders due to As exposure via wheat grains and groundwater as compared to adults.

  15. Quantitative analysis of γ-H2AX and p53 nuclear expression levels in ovarian and fallopian tube epithelium from risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomies in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staff, Synnöve; Tolonen, Teemu; Laasanen, Satu-Leena; Mecklin, Jukka-Pekka; Isola, Jorma; Mäenpää, Johanna

    2014-05-01

    Mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes confer an increased lifetime risk for breast and ovarian cancer. Increased lifetime ovarian cancer risk among BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers can be substantially decreased by risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), which also provides material for molecular research on early pathogenesis of serous ovarian cancer. RRSO studies have suggested fallopian tube as a primary site of serous high-grade ovarian cancer. In this study, the nuclear expression levels of γ-H2AX and p53 using immunohistochemical (IHC) study was quantitatively assessed in ovarian and fallopian tube epithelium derived from RRSOs in 29 BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers and in 1 patient with a strong family history of breast and ovarian cancer but showing an unknown BRCA status. Both p53 and γ-H2AX nuclear staining levels were significantly higher in BRCA1/2 mutation-positive fallopian tube epithelium compared with the control fallopian tube epithelium (Pepithelium and controls. Both γ-H2AX and p53 showed significantly higher nuclear expression levels in BRCA1/2 mutation-positive fallopian tube epithelium compared with BRCA1/2 mutation-positive ovarian epithelium (Pepithelium showed a positive correlation between the γ-H2AX and p53 nuclear expression levels (Pearson r=0.508, P=0.003). Our results of quantitative nuclear p53 and γ-H2AX expression levels in ovarian and fallopian tube epithelium derived from RRSO in high-risk patients support the previously suggested role of fallopian tube epithelium serving as a possible site of initial serous ovarian carcinogenesis.

  16. Quantitative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in selected categories of deli meats: impact of lactate and diacetate on listeriosis cases and deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Abani K; Ivanek, Renata; Gröhn, Yrjö T; Geornaras, Ifigenia; Sofos, John N; Wiedmann, Martin

    2009-05-01

    Foodborne disease associated with consumption of ready-to-eat foods contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes represents a considerable pubic health concern. In a risk assessment published in 2003, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Food Safety and Inspection Service estimated that about 90% of human listeriosis cases in the United States are caused by consumption of contaminated deli meats. In this risk assessment, all deli meats were grouped into one of 23 categories of ready-to-eat foods, and only the postretail growth of L. monocytogenes was considered. To provide an improved risk assessment for L. monocytogenes in deli meats, we developed a revised risk assessment that (i) models risk for three subcategories of deli meats (i.e., ham, turkey, and roast beef) and (ii) models L. monocytogenes contamination and growth from production to consumption while considering subcategory-specific growth kinetics parameters (i.e., lag phase and exponential growth rate). This model also was used to assess how reformulation of the chosen deli meat subcategories with L. monocytogenes growth inhibitors (i.e., lactate and diacetate) would impact the number of human listeriosis cases. Use of product-specific growth parameters demonstrated how certain deli meat categories differ in the relative risk of causing listeriosis; products that support more rapid growth and have reduced lag phases (e.g., turkey) represent a higher risk. Although reformulation of deli meats with growth inhibitors was estimated to reduce by about 2.5- to 7.8-fold the number of human listeriosis cases linked to a given deli meat subcategory and thus would reduce the overall risk of human listeriosis, even with reformulation deli meats would still cause a considerable number of human listeriosis cases. A combination of strategies is thus needed to provide continued reduction of these cases. Risk assessment models such as that described here will be critical for evaluation of different control

  17. Quantitative Study of Operational Risk During the Construction Period of Chemical Plant%化工厂建设期作业风险定量研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王凯全; 刘华月

    2012-01-01

    为了有效地管理和控制化工厂建设期风险,分析了化工厂建设期的风险特征,针对施工作业在时间、空间的不断变化、相互叠加现象,以作业条件危险评价法模型为基础,建立了动态作业风险模型和叠加作业风险模型,运用该模型计算了示例化工厂建设期典型时段各单元前后期静态和动态风险值,确定了风险叠加的区域并计算了该时段各区域叠加风险值,绘制了叠加风险分布图,据此确定了该时段风险管理和控制重点部位,提出了重点风险部位的控制措施.依据该模型设计的基于GIS的风险管理系统,提高了预防各类事故的能力和施工安全管理的水平.%In order to manage and control the risk during the construction period in the chemical plant, the risk characteristics have been analyzed, in view of mutual accumulation of construction operational risk in time and space, establishing a dynamic and accumulative operational risk model based on the LEC model. The model is applied to calculate the static and dynamic risk score of each unit in a chemical plant during the typical construction period, and determine the risk accumulation area and score simultaneously. The accumulative risk distribution map was drawn, which can be an effective tool in view of the risk control and management of main parts. According to the model the risk management system was design on GIS, so that the ability of preventing the accidents and safety management ware get further improved.

  18. Comparative QRA (Quantitative Risk Analysis) of natural gas distribution pipelines in urban areas; Analise comparativa dos riscos da operacao de linhas de gas natural em areas urbanas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Luiz Fernando S. de [Energy Solutions South America (Brazil); Cardoso, Cassia de O.; Storch, Rafael [Det Norske Veritas (DNV) (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The natural gas pipeline network grows around the world, but its operation inherently imposes a risk to the people living next to pipelines. Due to this, it is necessary to conduct a risk analysis during the environmental licensing in Brazil. Despite the risk analysis methodology is well established, some points of its application for the distribution pipelines are still under discussion. This paper presents a methodology that examines the influences of major projects and operating parameters on the risk calculation of a distribution pipeline accident in urban areas as well as the possible accident scenarios assessment complexity. The impact of some scenarios has been evaluated using a Computational Fluid Dynamics tool. The results indicate that, under certain conditions, the risks from the pipeline operation under operating pressures of 20 bar may be acceptable in location class 3 or even in class 4. These results play a very important role if management decisions on the growth of the distribution of natural gas network in densely populated areas as well as in the improvement of laws to control the activity of distribution of natural gas. (author)

  19. 注册会计师审计风险计量模型的研究%Quantitative Model of Auditing Risks of Registered Accountants

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王广亮; 李秀华

    2001-01-01

    CPA must make professional judgment and take a certain of responsibility and risk when he carries on every audit project, therefore, the whole audit activity can be regarded as a course of the audit risk management. The premise of implementing effective risk management is to calculate the audit risk, which decides success or failure of the audit work. The constructed models of calculating audit risk can provide method and basis for CPA to estimate the risk factors so that CPA may reduce the difference between the subjective judgment and the actual level and finally CPA may ensure the audit quality and improve the audit efficiency.%注册会计师(CPA)在进行每一个审计项目时,都要进行专业判断,都要承担一定的责任和风险。因此,整个审计活动都可以看作是一个审计风险的管理过程。对审计风险实施有效管理的前提是风险的计量,它决定着审计工作的成败。通过构造审计风险计量模型,为审计风险要素的计量提供方法和依据,缩小主观判断与实际水平之间的差异,更有效的保证审计质量和提高审计效率。

  20. 鲜肉中小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌的半定量风险评估%Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment of Yersinia enterocolitica in Fresh Meat

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王凯; 王虎虎; 叶可萍; 王光宇; 徐幸莲; 周光宏

    2014-01-01

    目的:分析南京市售鲜肉中小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌的风险程度。方法:将国内外文献报道及市场调查数据的统计分析相结合,运用经典的半定量风险评估软件“Risk Ranger”进行风险分级。结果:南京市售猪肉和牛肉中小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌的风险评分分别为31和24,每人每天因食用污染该菌的鲜肉造成食物中毒的概率分别为3.62×10-9,3.12×10-10,前者为后者风险的11.6倍。通过进一步研究发现,加工后采取有效的控制体系,均使两者的风险均降低到10%。结论:南京市售牛肉中小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌的风险程度较低,而市售猪肉中已接近中等程度,需做好预防措施,加强监管。%To analyze the risk of Yersinia enterocolitica contamination in commercial fresh meat in Nanjing. Methods: Risk rating was based on the classic semi-quantitative risk assessment software Risk Ranger combined with literature reports and market research data. Results:Relative risk from Yersinia enterocolitica in commercial fresh pork and beef in Nanjing was 31 and 24, respectively. The probability of food poisoning per day per consumer of interest was 3.62×10-9 and 3.12×10-10, respectively. Risk from the former showed an 11.6-fold increase over that from the latter. In further study, we found that the risks from the two kinds of commercial fresh meat could be reduced to one tenth of the original value by using control systems after processing. Conclusions:The risk of Yersinia enterocolitica contamination in commercial fresh beef in Nanjing is relatively low, but the risk in commercial fresh pork is near the moderate hazard. Consequently, the supervision and management of commercial fresh meat should be strengthened.

  1. The quantitative Morse theorem

    OpenAIRE

    Loi, Ta Le; Phien, Phan

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we give a proof of the quantitative Morse theorem stated by {Y. Yomdin} in \\cite{Y1}. The proof is based on the quantitative Sard theorem, the quantitative inverse function theorem and the quantitative Morse lemma.

  2. Quantitative farm-to-fork risk assessment model for norovirus and hepatitis A virus in European leafy green vegetable and berry fruit supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwknegt, Martijn; Verhaelen, Katharina; Rzeżutka, Artur; Kozyra, Iwona; Maunula, Leena; von Bonsdorff, Carl-Henrik; Vantarakis, Apostolos; Kokkinos, Petros; Petrovic, Tamas; Lazic, Sava; Pavlik, Ivo; Vasickova, Petra; Willems, Kris A; Havelaar, Arie H; Rutjes, Saskia A; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

    2015-04-02

    Fresh produce that is contaminated with viruses may lead to infection and viral gastroenteritis or hepatitis when consumed raw. It is thus important to reduce virus numbers on these foods. Prevention of virus contamination in fresh produce production and processing may be more effective than treatment, as sufficient virus removal or inactivation by post-harvest treatment requires high doses that may adversely affect food quality. To date knowledge of the contribution of various potential contamination routes is lacking. A risk assessment model was developed for human norovirus, hepatitis A virus and human adenovirus in raspberry and salad vegetable supply chains to quantify contributions of potential contamination sources to the contamination of produce at retail. These models were used to estimate public health risks. Model parameterization was based on monitoring data from European supply chains and literature data. No human pathogenic viruses were found in the soft fruit supply chains; human adenovirus (hAdV) was detected, which was additionally monitored as an indicator of fecal pollution to assess the contribution of potential contamination points. Estimated risks per serving of lettuce based on the models were 3×10(-4) (6×10(-6)-5×10(-3)) for NoV infection and 3×10(-8) (7×10(-10)-3×10(-6)) for hepatitis A jaundice. The contribution to virus contamination of hand-contact was larger as compared with the contribution of irrigation, the conveyor belt or the water used for produce rinsing. In conclusion, viral contamination in the lettuce and soft fruit supply chains occurred and estimated health risks were generally low. Nevertheless, the 97.5% upper limit for the estimated NoV contamination of lettuce suggested that infection risks up to 50% per serving might occur. Our study suggests that attention to full compliance for hand hygiene will improve fresh produce safety related to virus risks most as compared to the other examined sources, given the

  3. Rapid Quantification of Viable Campylobacter Bacteria on Chicken Carcasses, Using Real-Time PCR and Propidium Monoazide Treatment, as a Tool for Quantitative Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Mathilde Hartmann; Löfström, Charlotta; Hansen, Tina Beck

    2010-01-01

    by assessing the contribution to variability from individual chicken carcass rinse matrices, species of Campylobacter, and the efficiency of DNA extraction with differing cell inputs. The method was compared with culture-based enumeration on 50 naturally infected chickens. The cell contents correlated with Ct...... method does not detect DNA from dead Campylobacter, but recognises the infectious potential of the VBNC state, and is thereby able to assess the effect of control strategies, and provide trustworthy data for risk assessment....

  4. Quantitative risk assessment of listeriosis-associated deaths due to Listeria monocytogenes contamination of deli meats originating from manufacture and retail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Abani K; Ivanek, Renata; Gröhn, Yrjö T; Bukowski, Robert; Geornaras, Ifigenia; Sofos, John N; Wiedmann, Martin

    2010-04-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the relative risk of listeriosis-associated deaths attributable to Listeria monocytogenes contamination in ham and turkey formulated without and with growth inhibitors (GIs). Two contamination scenarios were investigated: (i) prepackaged deli meats with contamination originating solely from manufacture at a frequency of 0.4% (based on reported data) and (ii) retail-sliced deli meats with contamination originating solely from retail at a frequency of 2.3% (based on reported data). Using a manufacture-to-consumption risk assessment with product-specific growth kinetic parameters (i.e., lag phase and exponential growth rate), reformulation with GIs was estimated to reduce human listeriosis deaths linked to ham and turkey by 2.8- and 9-fold, respectively, when contamination originated at manufacture and by 1.9- and 2.8-fold, respectively, for products contaminated at retail. Contamination originating at retail was estimated to account for 76 and 63% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated without GIs and for 83 and 84% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated with GIs. Sensitivity analyses indicated that storage temperature was the most important factor affecting the estimation of per annum relative risk. Scenario analyses suggested that reducing storage temperature in home refrigerators to consistently below 7 degrees C would greatly reduce the risk of human listeriosis deaths, whereas reducing storage time appeared to be less effective. Overall, our data indicate a critical need for further development and implementation of effective control strategies to reduce L. monocytogenes contamination at the retail level.

  5. Quantitative Prediction and M anagement of Freew ay Systematic Risk%交通项目系统风险定量预测及管理

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李健; 曹传荣

    2014-01-01

    The huge scale of capital investment and diversification of the investors are the two most sig-nificant characters in nowadays freeway construction in China .So economic and benefit risk assess-ment and prediction of freeway project research has attracted more and more attentions from bank , government ,researchers ,engineers ,and private investors .Economic and benefit risk assessment and prediction of freeway project is directly relate to the problem of how to balance the supply of transpor-tation to ensure the need of society and economy ,and ensure the invest profit of the project at the same time .According to management system engineering method ,the related indexes accounting to e-conomic and benefit evaluation and financial result are selected ,and with the help of elementary catas-trophe theory and the method of risk list method ,trains of conclusions and explanation on risk venture prediction are given in this paper .%巨大的投资规模和多样化的经营模式是我国现阶段交通项目建设的2大特征,对于其中存在的经济和效益风险进行定量预测是进行风险防范与规避的前提和基础。文中以高速公路建设项目为对象,建立了相应的风险预测指标体系,采用突变理论与方法对包括运营风险、还贷风险与效益风险在内的高速公路建设项目系统风险进行了定量预测,并利用风险列表方法进行了分析。

  6. Quantitative risk assessment for hazards that arise from non-proteolytic Clostridium botulinum in minimally processed chilled dairy-based foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malakar, P K; Barker, G C; Peck, M W

    2011-04-01

    A modular process risk model has been constructed that describes the manufacture of dairy dessert products and hazards that arise from non-proteolytic Clostridium botulinum. The model describes batch manufacture and consumer storage of a family size generic dairy dessert but includes a realistic quantification that could apply to a specific food product. The dairy dessert sector is an expanding part of the UK market. The model includes modules that describe spore loads in raw materials, spore inactivation during thermal processing, volume partition and the population kinetics for non-proteolytic C. botulinum during sequential isothermal storage regimes. Where possible elements of uncertainty and variability are identified explicitly. The model is constructed as a belief network from published data and expert opinions. The model provides marginal probabilities, and associated sensitivities, for a range of endpoint measures centred on the toxicity of a single retail unit after an extended period of storage. The decimal reduction time for non-proteolytic C. botulinum spore populations at the highest (hold) temperature of the primary thermal process and the highest temperature experienced during poorly controlled (consumer) storage are dominant factors determining risks. Priorities for additional information to support risk assessments have been identified.

  7. Quantitative estimation of genetic risk for atypical scrapie in French sheep and potential consequences of the current breeding programme for resistance to scrapie on the risk of atypical scrapie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Pascal

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since 2002, active surveillance programmes have detected numerous atypical scrapie (AS and classical scrapie cases (CS in French sheep with almost all the PrP genotypes. The aim of this study was 1 to quantify the genetic risk of AS in French sheep and to compare it with the risk of CS, 2 to quantify the risk of AS associated with the increase of the ARR allele frequency as a result of the current genetic breeding programme against CS. Methods We obtained genotypes at codons 136, 141, 154 and 171 of the PRNP gene for representative samples of 248 AS and 245 CS cases. We used a random sample of 3,317 scrapie negative animals genotyped at codons 136, 154 and 171 and we made inferences on the position 141 by multiple imputations, using external data. To estimate the risk associated with PrP genotypes, we fitted multivariate logistic regression models and we estimated the prevalence of AS for the different genotypes. Then, we used the risk of AS estimated for the ALRR-ALRR genotype to analyse the risk of detecting an AS case in a flock homogenous for this genotype. Results Genotypes most at risk for AS were those including an AFRQ or ALHQ allele while genotypes including a VLRQ allele were less commonly associated with AS. Compared to ALRQ-ALRQ, the ALRR-ALRR genotype was significantly at risk for AS and was very significantly protective for CS. The prevalence of AS among ALRR-ALRR animals was 0.6‰ and was not different from the prevalence in the general population. Conclusion In conclusion, further selection of ALRR-ALRR animals will not result in an overall increase of AS prevalence in the French sheep population although this genotype is clearly susceptible to AS. However the probability of detecting AS cases in flocks participating in genetic breeding programme against CS should be considered.

  8. Optimized immunohistochemistry in combination with image analysis: a reliable alternative to quantitative ELISA determination of uPA and PAI-1 for routine risk group discrimination in breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, D S; Heilenkötter, U; Schumm, W; Behrens, O; Simon, R; Vollmer, E; Goldmann, T

    2013-10-01

    The determination of the invasion markers urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA) and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) has further improved the possibilities for individualized therapy of breast cancer. To date, quantitative measurement by ELISA, that needs large amounts of fresh, frozen material, is the only standardized procedure for diagnostic purposes. Therefore, the aim of this study was the establishment of a reliable alternative method based on immunohistochemistry (IHC) and image analysis requiring only small amounts of fixed tumor tissue. Protein expression of uPA and PAI-1 was analyzed in HOPE-fixed tumor samples using tissue microarrays (TMAs) and semiquantitative image analysis. The results of both methods were significantly correlated and risk assessment showed an overall concordance of 78% (83/107; high- and low-risk) and of 94% (74/79) regarding only high-risk patients. The data demonstrate that optimized IHC in combination with image analysis can provide adequate clinical significance compared to ELISA-derived determination of uPA and PAI-1.

  9. 高含硫气田集气站设备定量风险评价%A Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Equipments of High-sulfur Gas Field Gathering Station

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭清磊; 陈国明; 付建民

    2012-01-01

    In order to prevent accidents and to a develop inspection strategy, a quantitative risk assessment for equipments of high-sulfur gas field gathering station is performed. Firstly, generic failure frequencies of key equipments in gas gathering station are got by DNVs Leak frequency database, then failure frequencies of key equipments are got by using API581 to modify generic failure frequency. Fire, explosion and toxic effect regions for four typical release hole sizes in equipments are calculated by applying PHAST software to determine the risk of fire, explosion and toxicity. The results show that equipment risks can be made by this method.%为预防高含硫天然气泄漏事故和制定设备检测策略,对集气站设备进行定量风险评价.利用DNV Leak数据库得到集气站关键设备的同类失效频率,利用API 581标准对同类失效频率修正得到失效频率.用PHAST软件计算4种典型泄漏孔尺寸的燃烧爆炸和毒性的影响区域范围,确定设备的燃烧爆炸风险和毒性风险.结果表明,利用该方法能够确定设备风险大小顺序.

  10. Quantitative Model of High Technology Risk Investment Based on Psychological Expectations%基于心理预期的高新技术风险投资收益定量分析模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵平

    2009-01-01

    In cognizance of income changes in the risk investment, the article put forward two concepts creatively from the influencing factors concerned. One is the Achieved-multiples of the factors which affect the investment income. The other is the Achieved-multiples of investment income. According to the new concepts, it mooted the method about how to describe the changes of factors influencing the risk investment income. What's more, it gave the procedures and methods of the assessment on the risk investment earning and the quantitative models based on the psychological expectations.%针对风险投资收益变化问题,从影响投资收益的因素出发,提出了影响风险投资收益因素的实现倍数和风险投资收益实现倍数的概念,并借用此概念提出了对影响风险投资收益因素变化情况进行描述的方法,给出了评估风险投资收益实现倍数的方法程序和基于心理预期的定量模型.

  11. Quantitative assessment of the influence of TP63 gene polymorphisms and lung cancer risk: evidence based on 93,751 subjects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several genome-wide association studies on lung cancer (LC have reported similar findings of a new susceptibility locus, 3q28. After that, a number of studies reported that the rs10937405, and rs4488809 polymorphism in chromosome 3q28 has been implicated in LC risk. However, the studies have yielded contradictory results. METHODS: PubMed, ISI web of science, EMBASE and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases were systematically searched to identify relevant studies. Data were abstracted independently by two reviewers. A meta-analysis was performed to examine the association between rs10937405, rs4488809 polymorphism at 3q28 and susceptibility to LC. Odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs were calculated. Heterogeneity and publication bias were also tested. RESULTS: A total of 9 studies including 35,961 LC cases and 57,790 controls were involved in this meta-analysis. An overall random-effects per-allele OR of1.19 (95% CI: 1.14-1.25; P<10(-5 and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.13-1.25; P<10(-5 was found for the rs10937405 and rs4488809 polymorphism respectively. Similar results were also observed using dominant or recessive genetic model. After stratified by ethnicity, significant associations were found among East Asians (per-allele OR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.17-1.27; P<10(-5; whereas no significant associations were found among Caucasians for rs10937405. In the sub-group analysis by sample size, significantly increased risks were found for these polymorphisms in all genetic models. When analyzed according to histological type, the effects of rs10937405, and rs4488809 at 3q28 on the risk of lung cancer were significant mostly for lung adenocarcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrated that rs10937405-G allele and rs4488809-G allele might be risk-conferring factors for the development of lung cancer, especially for East Asian populations.

  12. 易燃液体库火灾风险定量分析与防火%On fire risk quantitative analysis for flammable liquid storeroom

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王以革; 任常兴; 吕东; 王婕; 郝爱玲; 李晋

    2011-01-01

    以甲类易燃液体库为例,探讨易燃液体泄漏的典型事故场景及火灾爆炸事故发生的可能性,采用多能法定量评估“最坏事故场景”对人员和建构筑物的伤害和破坏范围,分析事故通风换气对可燃气云爆炸浓度范围的影响作用,并提出防火防爆的安全对策措施.%Taking a class-A flammable liquid storeroom as an example, the typical accident scenarios of flammable liquid leakiness, and the probability of fire and explosion accident were discussed. The best worst accident scenario was quantitative evaluated by TNO method, and the damage and incidence zone to people and building were determined. Moreover, accident draught of storeroom works on explosive concentration scope, influence process of which were depicted. Finally, some countermeasures for preventing and controlling accidents were put forward.

  13. Campylobacter detection along the food chain--towards improved quantitative risk analysis by live/dead discriminatory culture-independent methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stingl, Kerstin; Buhler, Christiane; Krüger, Nora-Johanna

    2015-01-01

    Death, although absolute in its consequence, is not measurable by an absolute parameter in bacteria. Viability assays address different aspects of life, e. g. the capability to form a colony on an agar plate (CFU), metabolic properties or mem- brane integrity. For food safety, presence of infectious potential is the relevant criterion for risk assessment, currently only partly reflected by the quantification of CFU. It will be necessary for future improved risk assessment, in particular when fastidious bacterial pathogens are implicated, to enhance the informative value of CFU. This might be feasible by quantification of the number of intact and potentially infectious Campylobacter, impermeable to the DNA intercalating dye propidium monoazide (PMA). The latter are quantifiable by the combination of PMA with real-time PCR, although thorough controls have to be developed for standardization and the circumvention of pitfalls. Under consideration of differ- ent physiological states of the food-borne pathogen, we provide an overview of current and future suitable detection/quantification targets along the food chain, including putative limitations of detection.

  14. Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of rabies into Japan through the illegal landing of dogs from Russian fishing boats in the ports of Hokkaido, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwan, Nigel C L; Ogawa, Hidehito; Yamada, Akio; Sugiura, Katsuaki

    2016-06-01

    Japan has been free from rabies since 1958 and various preventive measures are in place protecting the country from the introduction of the disease. Historical reviews indicate that the illegal landing of dogs from Russian fishing boats in the ports of Hokkaido occurred frequently especially in the early 2000s and this could potentially be a source of introduction of rabies into Japan. The method of scenario tree modelling was used and the following entry and exposure pathway was considered the most likely route of rabies entry: a rabies-infected dog arriving on a Russian fishing boat lands in a port of Hokkaido in Japan, it becomes infectious, contacts and infects a susceptible domestic animal (companion dog, stray dog or wildlife). Input parameter values were based on surveys of Russian fishermen, expert opinion and scientific data from the literature. At present (2006-2015), the probability of the introduction of rabies as a result of one Russian fishing boat arriving at a port of Hokkaido is 8.33×10(-10) (90% Prediction Interval (PI): 7.15×10(-11)-5.34×10(-9)), while this probability would have been 7.70×10(-9) (90% PI: 6.40×10(-10)-4.81×10(-8)) in the past (1998-2005). Under the current situation (average annual number of boat arrivals is 1106), rabies would enter Japan every 1,084,849 (90% PI: 169,215-20,188,348) years, while the disease would have been introduced every 18,309 (90% PI: 2929-220,048) years in the past (average annual number of boat arrivals is 7092). The risk of rabies introduction has decreased 59 fold due to both the effective control of the issue of illegal landing of dogs and the decline in the number of Russian boat arrivals. Control efforts include education of Russian fishermen, establishment of warning signs, daily patrols and regular port surveillance of potential dog landing activity. Furthermore, scenario analysis revealed that the policy of mandatory domestic dog vaccination does not contribute effectively to Japan's rabies

  15. Semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings for the landslide risk analysis. A case study in the Loures municipality, Lisbon district, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillard-Gonçalves, Clémence; Zêzere, José Luis; Pereira, Susana; Garcia, Ricardo

    2016-04-01

    The physical vulnerability of the buildings of Loures (a Portuguese municipality) to landslides was assessed, and the landslide risk was computed as the product of the landslide hazard by the vulnerability and the market economic value of the buildings. First, the hazard was assessed by combining the spatio-temporal probability and the frequency-magnitude relationship of the landslides, which was established by plotting the probability of a landslide area. The susceptibility of deep-seated and shallow landslides was assessed by a bi-variate statistical method and was mapped. The annual and multiannual spatio-temporal probabilities were estimated, providing a landslide hazard model. Then, an assessment of buildings vulnerability to landslides, based on an inquiry of a pool of landslide European experts, was developed and applied to the study area. The inquiry was based on nine magnitude scenarios and four structural building types. A sub-pool of the landslide experts who know the study area was extracted from the pool, and the variability of the answers coming from the pool and the sub-pool was assessed with standard deviation. Moreover, the average vulnerability of the basic geographic entities was compared by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site (included in the study area), the inventory of which was listed on the field. Next, the market economic value of the buildings was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services approach. Finally, the annual and multiannual landslide risk was computed for the nine landslide magnitude scenarios and different spatio-temporal probabilities by multiplying the potential loss (Vulnerability × Economic Value) by the hazard probability. As a rule, the vulnerability values given by the sub-pool of experts who know the study area are higher than those given by the European experts, namely for the high magnitude landslides. The obtained vulnerabilities vary from 0

  16. Semi-quantitative risk assessment for Staphylococcus aureus in raw milk%生乳中金黄色葡萄球菌污染半定量风险评估研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘弘; 顾其芳; 吴春峰; 袁微嘉; 秦璐昕; 邢之慧

    2011-01-01

    目的 探索上海市生乳中金黄色葡萄球菌污染的风险.方法 按微生物风险评估的程序,应用半定量风险评估软件(risk ranger)结合流行病学调查和微生物检测等.结果 上海市金黄色葡萄球菌肠毒素性食物中毒列报告的细菌性食物中毒暴发事件第3位;金黄色葡萄球菌肠毒索性食物中毒的严重性中等、全人群易感;4-6月上海市生乳中金黄色葡萄球菌污染率为72.0%,乳及乳制品日均消费量达86.60g/人;假设生乳在加工前金黄色葡萄球菌超过105CFU/g的概率为1/1 000,则每人每天因食用污染金黄色葡萄球菌污染乳及乳制品引起食物中毒的概率为2.5×10-1,每年因金黄色葡萄球菌污染乳及乳制品食物中毒病例数862人,风险等级49.结论 上海市生乳中金黄色葡萄球菌污染的风险程度属于中等,需加强监管.%Objective To evaluate the risk of Staphylococcus aureus in raw milk in Shanghai by semi-quantitative risk assessment. Methods Based on the basic procedure of microbial risk assessment, a semi-quantitative risk assessment software (risk ranger) combining with epidemiological survey and microbial tests was applied. Results The reported outbreaks of foodborn poisoning caused by staphylococcal intoxication were the third of important bacterial food poisoning accidents in Shanghai. Staphylococcal intoxication is moderate hazard and susceptible for all populations. The contamination rate of Staphylococcus aureus in raw milk was 72.0% in Shanghai. The average consumption of milk and milk products was 86. 60 grams per person per day. If the probability of contamination was one thousandth, the CFU of Staphylococcus aureus in raw milk would be more than 105 per gram of raw milk before processing, the probability of food poisoning per day per consumer of interest would be 2.5 × 10 -7, the total predicted food poisoning per annum in population of interest would be 862 and the risk ranking was 49

  17. Acute Care of At-Risk Newborns (ACoRN): quantitative and qualitative educational evaluation of the program in a region of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singhal, Nalini; Lockyer, Jocelyn; Fidler, Herta; Aziz, Khalid; McMillan, Douglas; Qiu, Xiangming; Ma, Xiaolu; Du, Lizhong; Lee, Shoo K

    2012-06-20

    The Acute Care of at-Risk Newborns (ACoRN) program was developed in Canada for trained health care providers for the identification and management of newborns who are at-risk and/or become unwell in the first few hours or days after birth. The ACoRN process follows an 8-step framework that enables the evaluation and management of babies irrespective of the experience or expertise of the caregiving individual or team. This study assesses the applicability of the program to Chinese pediatric practitioners. Course content and educational materials were translated from English into Chinese by bilingual neonatal practitioners. Confidence and knowledge questionnaires were developed and reviewed for face and content validity by a team of ACoRN instructors. Bilingual Chinese instructors were trained at the tertiary perinatal centre in Hangzhou Zhejiang to deliver the course at 15 level II county hospitals. Participants completed pre- and post-course confidence and knowledge questionnaires and provided feedback through post-course focus groups. 216 physicians and nurses were trained. Confidence and knowledge relating to neonatal stabilization improved significantly following the courses. Participants rated course utility and function between 4.2 and 4.6/5 on all items. Pre/post measures of confidence were significantly correlated with post course knowledge. Focus group data supported the perceived value of the program and recommended course adjustments to include pre-course reading, and increased content related to simulation, communication skills, and management of respiratory illness and jaundice. ACoRN, a Canadian educational program, appears to be well received by Chinese health care providers and results in improved knowledge and confidence. International program adaptation for use by health care professionals requires structured and systematic evaluation to ensure that the program meets the needs of learners, reflects their learning styles, and can be applied in their

  18. Benefits and risks of fish consumption Part I. A quantitative analysis of the intake of omega-3 fatty acids and chemical contaminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domingo, José L; Bocio, Ana; Falcó, Gemma; Llobet, Juan M

    2007-02-12

    In recent years, and based on the importance of fish as a part of a healthy diet, there has been a notable promotion of fish consumption. However, the balance between health benefits and risks, due to the intake of chemical contaminants, is not well characterized. In the present study, edible samples of 14 marine species were analyzed for the concentrations of omega-3 fatty acids, as well as a number of metals and organic pollutants. Daily intakes were specifically determined for a standard adult of 70kg, and compared with the tolerable/admissible intakes of the pollutants, if available. Salmon, mackerel, and red mullet were the species showing the highest content of omega-3 fatty acids. The daily intakes of cadmium, lead, and mercury through fish consumption were 1.1, 2.0, and 9.9microg, respectively. Dioxins and furans plus dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) intake was 38.0pg WHO-TEQ/day, whereas those of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polychlorinated diphenyl ethers (PCDEs), polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) were 20.8, 39.4, 1.53, and 1.50ng/day, respectively. In turn, the total intake of 16 analyzed polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was 268ng/day. The monthly fish consumption limits for human health endpoints based on the intake of these chemical contaminants were calculated for a 70 years exposure. In general terms, most marine species here analyzed should not mean adverse health effects for the consumers. However, the type of fish, the frequency of consumption, and the meal size are essential issues for the balance of the health benefits and risks of regular fish consumption.

  19. A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS METHOD FOR SECURITY RISK AGAINST DPA ATTACK ON PASSWORD CHIP%一种针对密码芯片 DPA 攻击的安全风险量化分析方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李廷顺; 谭文; 程志华; 张宗华

    2016-01-01

    针对密码芯片遭受差分功耗分析 DPA(Differential Power Analysis)策略攻击时风险如何量化精确评估的问题,提出一种量化应用模拟分析方法。该方法对正常运行中的密码芯片功率消耗大小的概率分布密度值实行核函数机制理论推导,并引入密钥在获取时攻击分析结构模型与功率消耗大小之间的互通信熵值。实验结果表明,该量化分析方法不仅能精确地验算出与互通信熵值类似的相关度参数,而且能有效地提高密钥芯片风险全方位分析能力。%Aiming at how to estimate the risk of the password chips being attacked with differential power analysis (DPA)in quantified and precise way,this paper proposes a quantitative analysis method for applied simulation.The method makes the theoretical derivation with kernel function mechanism on the probability distribution density value of the power consumption of password chip in normal working process, and introduces the mutual communication entropy between the analysis structure model of the attack during key acquisition and the energy consumption.Experimental results indicate that the quantitative analysis can not only check the relevance parameter similar to mutual communication entropy,but can also effectively improve the full-range analysis capability in regard to key chip risks.

  20. Paediatric HUS Cases Related to the Consumption of Raw Milk Sold by Vending Machines in Italy: Quantitative Risk Assessment Based on Escherichia coli O157 Official Controls over 7 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, F; Bonilauri, P; Piva, S; Scavia, G; Amatiste, S; Bianchi, D M; Losio, M N; Bilei, S; Cascone, G; Comin, D; Daminelli, P; Decastelli, L; Merialdi, G; Mioni, R; Peli, A; Petruzzelli, A; Tonucci, F; Liuzzo, G; Serraino, A

    2016-12-19

    A quantitative risk assessment (RA) was developed to estimate haemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) cases in paediatric population associated with the consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. The historical national evolution of raw milk consumption phenomenon since 2008, when consumer interest started to grow, and after 7 years of marketing adjustment, is outlined. Exposure assessment was based on the official Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC) microbiological records of raw milk samples from vending machines monitored by the regional Veterinary Authorities from 2008 to 2014, microbial growth during storage, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, consumption preference and age of consumers. The differential risk considered milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst time-temperature field handling conditions detected. In case of boiling milk before consumption, we assumed that the risk of HUS is fixed at zero. The model estimates clearly show that the public health significance of HUS cases due to raw milk STEC contamination depends on the current variability surrounding the risk profile of the food and the consumer behaviour has more impact than milk storage scenario. The estimated HUS cases predicted by our model are roughly in line with the effective STEC O157-associated HUS cases notified in Italy only when the proportion of consumers not boiling milk before consumption is assumed to be 1%. Raw milk consumption remains a source of E. coli O157:H7 for humans, but its overall relevance is likely to have subsided and significant caution should be exerted for temporal, geographical and consumers behaviour analysis. Health education programmes and regulatory actions are required to educate people, primarily children, on other STEC sources.

  1. Quantitative assessment of the risk of microbial spoilage in foods. Prediction of non-stability at 55 °C caused by Geobacillus stearothermophilus in canned green beans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigaux, Clémence; André, Stéphane; Albert, Isabelle; Carlin, Frédéric

    2014-02-03

    Microbial spoilage of canned foods by thermophilic and highly heat-resistant spore-forming bacteria, such as Geobacillus stearothermophilus, is a persistent problem in the food industry. An incubation test at 55 °C for 7 days, then validation of biological stability, is used as an indicator of compliance with good manufacturing practices. We propose a microbial risk assessment model predicting the percentage of non-stability due to G. stearothermophilus in canned green beans manufactured by a French company. The model accounts for initial microbial contaminations of fresh unprocessed green beans with G. stearothermophilus, cross-contaminations in the processing chain, inactivation processes and probability of survival and growth. The sterilization process is modeled by an equivalent heating time depending on sterilization value F₀ and on G. stearothermophilus resistance parameter z(T). Following the recommendations of international organizations, second order Monte-Carlo simulations are used, separately propagating uncertainty and variability on parameters. As a result of the model, the mean predicted non-stability rate is of 0.5%, with a 95% uncertainty interval of [0.1%; 1.2%], which is highly similar to data communicated by the French industry. A sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices and some scenario tests underline the importance of cross-contamination at the blanching step, in addition to inactivation due to the sterilization process.

  2. Quantitative Ultrasound Measurements at the Heel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daugschies, M.; Brixen, K.; Hermann, P.

    2015-01-01

    Calcaneal quantitative ultrasound can be used to predict osteoporotic fracture risk, but its ability to monitor therapy is unclear possibly because of its limited precision. We developed a quantitative ultrasound device (foot ultrasound scanner) that measures the speed of sound at the heel...... with the foot ultrasound scanner reduced precision errors by half (p quantitative ultrasound measurements is feasible. (E-mail: m.daugschies@rad.uni-kiel.de) (C) 2015 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology....

  3. Bovine tuberculosis infection in wild mammals in the South-West region of England: a survey of prevalence and a semi-quantitative assessment of the relative risks to cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delahay, R J; Smith, G C; Barlow, A M; Walker, N; Harris, A; Clifton-Hadley, R S; Cheeseman, C L

    2007-03-01

    In the United Kingdom, badgers are implicated in the transmission of Mycobacterium bovis to cattle, but little information is available on the potential role of other wild mammals. This paper presents the results of the largest systematic UK survey of M. bovis infection in other wild mammals. Mammal carcasses (4715) from throughout the South-West region of England were subjected to a systematic post mortem examination, microbiological culture of tissues and spoligotyping of isolates. Infection was confirmed in fox, stoat, polecat, common shrew, yellow-necked mouse, wood mouse, field vole, grey squirrel, roe deer, red deer, fallow deer and muntjac. Prevalence in deer may have been underestimated because the majority were incomplete carcasses, which reduced the likelihood of detecting infection. Infected cases were found in Wiltshire, Somerset, Devon and Cornwall, Gloucestershire and Herefordshire. Lesions were found in a high proportion of spoligotype-positive fallow, red and roe deer, and a single fox, stoat and muntjac. M. bovis spoligotypes occurred in a similar frequency of occurrence to that in cattle and badgers. Data on prevalence, pathology, abundance and ecology of wild mammals was integrated in a semi-quantitative risk assessment of the likelihood of transmission to cattle relative to badgers. Although most species presented a relatively low risk, higher values and uncertainty associated with muntjac, roe, red and in particular fallow deer, suggest they require further investigation. The results suggest that deer should be considered as potential, although probably localised, sources of infection for cattle.

  4. Estimation of prevalence of Salmonella on pig carcasses and pork joints, using a quantitative risk assessment model aided by meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Ursula Gonzales; Soumpasis, Ilias; Butler, Francis; Prendergast, Deirdre; Duggan, Sharon; Duffy, Geraldine

    2009-02-01

    This risk assessment study aimed to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella on pig carcasses and pork joints produced in slaughterhouses, on the basis that within groups of slaughter there is a strong association between the proportion of Salmonella-positive animals entering the slaughter lines (x) and the resulting proportion of contaminated eviscerated pig carcasses (y). To this effect, the results of a number of published studies reporting estimates of x and y were assembled in order to model a stochastic weighted regression considering the sensitivities of the diverse Salmonella culture methods. Meta-analysis was used to assign weights to the regression and to estimate the overall effect of chilling on Salmonella incidence on pig carcasses. The model's ability to produce accurate estimates and the intrinsic effectiveness of the modeling capabilities of meta-analysis were appraised using Irish data for the input parameter of prevalence of Salmonella carrier slaughter pigs. The model approximated a Salmonella prevalence in pork joints from Irish boning halls of 4.0% (95% confidence interval, 0.3 to 12.0%) and was validated by the results of a large survey (n = 720) of Salmonella in pork joints (mean, 3.3%; 95% confidence interval, 2.0 to 4.6%) carried out in four commercial pork abattoirs as part of this research project. Sensitivity analysis reinforced the importance of final rinsing (r = -0.382) and chilling (r = -0.221) as stages that contribute to reducing considerably the occurrence of Salmonella on the final product, while hygiene practices during jointing seemed to moderate only marginally the amount of contaminated pork joints. Finally, the adequacy of meta-analysis for integrating different findings and producing distributions for use in stochastic modeling was demonstrated.

  5. Quantitative proteomics analysis using 2D-PAGE to investigate the effects of cigarette smoke and aerosol of a prototypic modified risk tobacco product on the lung proteome in C57BL/6 mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elamin, Ashraf; Titz, Bjoern; Dijon, Sophie; Merg, Celine; Geertz, Marcel; Schneider, Thomas; Martin, Florian; Schlage, Walter K; Frentzel, Stefan; Talamo, Fabio; Phillips, Blaine; Veljkovic, Emilija; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Vanscheeuwijck, Patrick; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

    2016-08-11

    Smoking is associated with several serious diseases, such as lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Within our systems toxicology framework, we are assessing whether potential modified risk tobacco products (MRTP) can reduce smoking-related health risks compared to conventional cigarettes. In this article, we evaluated to what extent 2D-PAGE/MALDI MS/MS (2D-PAGE) can complement the iTRAQ LC-MS/MS results from a previously reported mouse inhalation study, in which we assessed a prototypic MRTP (pMRTP). Selected differentially expressed proteins identified by both LC-MS/MS and 2D-PAGE approaches were further verified using reverse-phase protein microarrays. LC-MS/MS captured the effects of cigarette smoke (CS) on the lung proteome more comprehensively than 2D-PAGE. However, an integrated analysis of both proteomics data sets showed that 2D-PAGE data complement the LC-MS/MS results by supporting the overall trend of lower effects of pMRTP aerosol than CS on the lung proteome. Biological effects of CS exposure supported by both methods included increases in immune-related, surfactant metabolism, proteasome, and actin cytoskeleton protein clusters. Overall, while 2D-PAGE has its value, especially as a complementary method for the analysis of effects on intact proteins, LC-MS/MS approaches will likely be the method of choice for proteome analysis in systems toxicology investigations. Quantitative proteomics is anticipated to play a growing role within systems toxicology assessment frameworks in the future. To further understand how different proteomics technologies can contribute to toxicity assessment, we conducted a quantitative proteomics analysis using 2D-PAGE and isobaric tag-based LC-MS/MS approaches and compared the results produced from the 2 approaches. Using a prototypic modified risk tobacco product (pMRTP) as our test item, we show compared with cigarette smoke, how 2D-PAGE results can complement and support LC-MS/MS data, demonstrating

  6. Study on dietary exposure quantitative risk evaluation of Vibrio parahaemolyticus from sea food in Yantai%烟台海域海产品中副溶血弧菌的膳食暴露风险定量评价

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宫春波; 王朝霞; 伍海燕; 董峰光; 孙月琳

    2015-01-01

    Objective To know the dietary exposure risk of Vibrio parahemolyticus contaminated in sea foods in Yantai, and quantitatively describe the dietary exposure risk to the residents of Yantai. Methods The Beta-poison model was used to describe dose-response effect for Vibrio parahemolyticus of sea foods. The probability distribution and quantitative risk values of Vibrio parahemolyticus from sea foods were simulated by @Risk software. Results The total exposure risk mean value of single portion sea foods was 3.824×10-5 and annual morbidity was 0.00502 for 15~64 years old residents of Yantai. The shellfishes has the highest exposure risk value (1.027×10-4) and annual morbidity (2.14×10-3) followed by others, seaweeds, cephalopodas, crustaceas and fishes. The exposure risk (9.673±6.631×10-5) and annual morbidity (0.00633±0.00434 per person every quarter) of VP in sea foods from July to September was higher than that from Apirl to June and in October and Novermber. Conclusion The sea foods of Yantai generally have higher pathogenic risk caused by VP. A higher exposure risk value was found among the shellfishes and during the period from July to September. Vibrio parahemolyticus contaminated sea foods in Yantai was the main pathogenic bacteria that could cause food-borne disease. The best way to reduce exposure risk is controlling the contamination level for, particularly during the period from July to September.%目的:获得烟台海域海产品中副溶血弧菌的(Vibrio parahemolyticus, VP)致病风险值,量化描述海产品中 VP 的膳食暴露风险。方法以贝塔-泊松模型(Beta-poison)作为剂量-反应模型,运用@Risk 软件拟合海产品中 VP 的概率分布以及计算基于蒙特卡罗模拟的量化风险值。结果烟台15~64岁居民摄食单份(可食部,100 g/份)海产品的VP发病总体风险均值为3.824×10-5,年均发病率为0.00502次/人·年。贝类致病风险均值和年均发病率最高,分别为1.027×10-4、2

  7. 即食食品中单增李斯特菌的半定量风险评估%Semi-quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in RTE food

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    董庆利; 郑丽敏; 党维鑫; 顾晓颋

    2012-01-01

    开展某市即食食品中单增李斯特菌的半定量风险评估,参照微生物风险评估程序,对单增李斯特菌开展了危害识别、危害特征描述、暴露评估和风险特征描述。通过剂量反应关系推测易感人群和非易感人群由于摄入即食食品导致单增李斯特菌病的每年发病概率分别为3.71×10-7和3.39×10-9。基于2008-2011年监测各类生食蔬菜、生食水产品、菜肴(沙拉)等即食食品942组数据,构建了即食食品中单增李斯特菌的风险矩阵,由风险可能性和风险损失度计算得到易感人群通过摄入即食食品感染单增李斯特菌的风险等级属于五级风险等级中较小的一级,表明当地居民通过摄入即食食品感染单增李斯特菌病的风险较小。本文可为构建完整单增李斯特菌风险评估体系提供理论参考。%An semi-quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes was conducted for Ready-To-Eat (RTE) food in one city of China. Four steps,hazard identification,hazard characterization,exposure assessment and risk characterization,were applied for L. monocytogenes in RTE food. The result of dose-response relationship indicated that the probability of becoming ill each year from ingesting L. monocytogenes in RTE food was 3.71 ×10-7 and 3.39×10-9, respectively for susceptible populations and normal populations. Moreover, the 2-dimensional risk matrix based on risk probability and risk loss was established for L. monocytogenes in RTE food,according to 942 data of RTE food which included fresh fruits and vegetables,aquatic products, salad,et al. It showed that risk level of L. monocytogenes in RTE food reached the lowest one of five levels. Local people might get listeriosis with lower risk from eating RTE food. The results could be referenced for complete estabishment of L. monocytogenes risk assessment.

  8. Risks of advanced technology - Nuclear: risk comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latarjet, R. (Institut du Radium, Orsay (France))

    The author presents a general definition of the concept of risk and makes a distinction between the various types of risk - the absolute and the relative; the risk for oneself and for others. The quantitative comparison of risks presupposes their ''interchangeability''. In the case of major risks in the long term - or genotoxic risks - there is a certain degree of interchangeability which makes this quantitative comparison possible. It is expressed by the concept of rad-equivalence which the author defines and explains giving as a concrete example the work conducted on ethylene and ethylene oxide.

  9. Quantitative Proteome Mapping of Nitrotyrosines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Diana J.; Qian, Weijun

    2008-02-10

    An essential first step in the understanding disease and environmental perturbations is the early and quantitative detection of the increased levels of the inflammatory marker nitrotyrosine, as compared with its endogenous levels within the tissue or cellular proteome. Thus, methods that successfully address a proteome-wide quantitation of nitrotyrosine and related oxidative modifications can provide early biomarkers of risk and progression of disease as well as effective strategies for therapy. Multidimensional separations LC coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) has, in recent years, significantly expanded our knowledge of human (and mammalian model system) proteomes including some nascent work in identification of post-translational modifications. In the following review, we discuss the application of LC-MS/MS for quantitation and identification of nitrotyrosine-modified proteins within the context of complex protein mixtures presented in mammalian proteomes.

  10. Quantitative Decision Support Requires Quantitative User Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2009-12-01

    for a given problem is presented. Based on climate science, meteorology, and the details of the question in hand, this approach identifies necessary (never sufficient) conditions required for the rational use of climate model output in quantitative decision support tools. Inasmuch as climate forecasting is a problem of extrapolation, there will always be harsh limits on our ability to establish where a model is fit for purpose, this does not, however, limit us from identifying model noise as such, and thereby avoiding some cases of the misapplication and over interpretation of model output. It is suggested that failure to clearly communicate the limits of today’s climate model in providing quantitative decision relevant climate information to today’s users of climate information, would risk the credibility of tomorrow’s climate science and science based policy more generally.

  11. Quantitative genetic studies of antisocial behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viding, Essi; Larsson, Henrik; Jones, Alice P

    2008-08-12

    This paper will broadly review the currently available twin and adoption data on antisocial behaviour (AB). It is argued that quantitative genetic research can make a significant contribution to further the understanding of how AB develops. Genetically informative study designs are particularly useful for investigating several important questions such as whether: the heritability estimates vary as a function of assessment method or gender; the relative importance of genetic and environmental influences varies for different types of AB; the environmental risk factors are truly environmental; and genetic vulnerability influences susceptibility to environmental risk. While the current data are not yet directly translatable for prevention and treatment programmes, quantitative genetic research has concrete translational potential. Quantitative genetic research can supplement neuroscience research in informing about different subtypes of AB, such as AB coupled with callous-unemotional traits. Quantitative genetic research is also important in advancing the understanding of the mechanisms by which environmental risk operates.

  12. Quantitative Information on Oncology Prescription Drug Websites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Helen W; Aikin, Kathryn J; Squiers, Linda B

    2016-09-02

    Our objective was to determine whether and how quantitative information about drug benefits and risks is presented to consumers and healthcare professionals on cancer-related prescription drug websites. We analyzed the content of 65 active cancer-related prescription drug websites. We assessed the inclusion and presentation of quantitative information for two audiences (consumers and healthcare professionals) and two types of information (drug benefits and risks). Websites were equally likely to present quantitative information for benefits (96.9 %) and risks (95.4 %). However, the amount of the information differed significantly: Both consumer-directed and healthcare-professional-directed webpages were more likely to have quantitative information for every benefit (consumer 38.5 %; healthcare professional 86.1 %) compared with every risk (consumer 3.1 %; healthcare professional 6.2 %). The numeric and graphic presentations also differed by audience and information type. Consumers have access to quantitative information about oncology drugs and, in particular, about the benefits of these drugs. Research has shown that using quantitative information to communicate treatment benefits and risks can increase patients' and physicians' understanding and can aid in treatment decision-making, although some numeric and graphic formats are more useful than others.

  13. Quantitative imaging methods in osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oei, Ling; Koromani, Fjorda; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Zillikens, M Carola; Oei, Edwin H G

    2016-12-01

    Osteoporosis is characterized by a decreased bone mass and quality resulting in an increased fracture risk. Quantitative imaging methods are critical in the diagnosis and follow-up of treatment effects in osteoporosis. Prior radiographic vertebral fractures and bone mineral density (BMD) as a quantitative parameter derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) are among the strongest known predictors of future osteoporotic fractures. Therefore, current clinical decision making relies heavily on accurate assessment of these imaging features. Further, novel quantitative techniques are being developed to appraise additional characteristics of osteoporosis including three-dimensional bone architecture with quantitative computed tomography (QCT). Dedicated high-resolution (HR) CT equipment is available to enhance image quality. At the other end of the spectrum, by utilizing post-processing techniques such as the trabecular bone score (TBS) information on three-dimensional architecture can be derived from DXA images. Further developments in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) seem promising to not only capture bone micro-architecture but also characterize processes at the molecular level. This review provides an overview of various quantitative imaging techniques based on different radiological modalities utilized in clinical osteoporosis care and research.

  14. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsui, Toshiyuki; Kasuga, Fumiko

    Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a progressive neurological disease of cattle affecting the central nervous system and was first diagnosed in the United Kingdom (UK) in 1986 (Wells et al., 1987). This disease is one of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) which includes Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans and scrapie in sheep. The causative agent of TSE is considered to be an abnormal form of prion protein. However, the details of its pathogenic mechanism have not been fully identified. Scrapie, which causes neurological symptoms in sheep and goats, has existed in the UK for 200 years (Hoinville, 1996) and spread across the rest of the world in the 1900s (Detwiler & Baylis, 2003). There has been no report so far that scrapie can be transmitted to humans. Initially, BSE was also considered as a disease affecting only animals. However, a variant type of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) was first reported in the UK, and exposure to a BSE agent was suspected (Collinge, Sidle, Meads, Ironside, & Hill, 1996). vCJD is clinically and pathologically different from the sporadic type of CJD, and age at clinical onset of vCJD is younger than sporadic type (Will et al., 1996). Since the UK government announced the possible association between BSE and vCJD in 1996, BSE has become a huge public health concern all over the world. Of particular concern about vCJD, the fatal disease in younger age, distorted consumer confidence in beef safety, and as a result reduced beef consumption has been seen in many BSE-affected countries.

  15. The interpretation of quantitative microbial data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ribeiro Duarte, Ana Sofia

    . Hence, these models need to be validated with independent data for conditions of real food before use in QMRA. The overall goal of the work presented in this thesis is to study different factors related to quantitative microbial data that may have an impact on the outcome ofQMRA, in order to find...... prevalence and high concentration). Also, a zeroinflation tends to improve the accuracy of the risk estimates. In manuscript III (“Variability and uncertainty in the evaluation of predictive models with literature data – consequences to quantitative microbiological risk assessment”) it is assessed how......Foodborne diseases carry important social, health, political and economic consequences. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is a science based tool used to estimate the risk that foodborne pathogens pose to human health, i.e. it estimates the number of cases of human foodborne...

  16. Risk Quantitative Analysis of En-route Controllers′Cognitive Process%区域管制员认知过程风险分析方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王洁宁; 李培; 周沅

    2015-01-01

    Air traffic management system is the result of complex interactions and joint cognitive among human operators, procedures and technical systems.Based on the summary of the en-route controllers′daily work in which there are message flows and cooperation modes, the logical relations between the activities of the cognitive processes was made with the use of UML.And, take advantage of the specification of BPMN, a cognitive model of confir-ming/updating MP process was built.Then, in order to realize the risk analysis quantitatively, the BPMN model was extended by combining with event tree analysis.The results show that this method can find out the safety weak-ness in process by analysis the risk value, which provides support for risk identification and analysis of ATM.%空中交通管理系统是一个典型的高交互、高分布式和具备联合认知特性的复杂系统。在总结区域管制员日常工作任务基础上,考虑流程中的消息和协作模式,采用UML活动图刻画认知过程中各个活动之间的逻辑关系,提出利用BPMN语言的规范性,建立区域管制员“确定/更新MP”任务模型,结合事件树分析方法拓展BPMN模型,实现风险定量分析。结果表明,此方法通过对管制员认知过程的跟踪和训练,根据计算得出的风险值可以确定流程中影响安全的薄弱环节,为空管风险识别与分析提供支持。

  17. Quantitative lithofacies palaeogeography

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zeng-Zhao; Feng; Xiu-Juan; Zheng; Zhi-Dong; Bao; Zhen-Kui; Jin; Sheng-He; Wu; You-Bin; He; Yong-Min; Peng; Yu-Qing; Yang; Jia-Qiang; Zhang; Yong-Sheng; Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative lithofacies palaeogeography is an important discipline of palaeogeography.It is developed on the foundation of traditional lithofacies palaeogeography and palaeogeography,the core of which is the quantitative lithofacies palaeogeographic map.Quantity means that in the palaeogeographic map,the division and identification of each palaeogeographic unit are supported by quantitative data and quantitative fundamental maps.Our lithofacies palaeogeographic maps are quantitative or mainly quantitative.A great number of quantitative lithofacies palaeogeographic maps have been published,and articles and monographs of quantitative lithofacies palaeogeography have been published successively,thus the quantitative lithofacies palaeogeography was formed and established.It is an important development in lithofacies palaeogeography.In composing quantitative lithofacies palaeogeographic maps,the key measure is the single factor analysis and multifactor comprehensive mapping method—methodology of quantitative lithofacies palaeogeography.In this paper,the authors utilize two case studies,one from the Early Ordovician of South China and the other from the Early Ordovician of Ordos,North China,to explain how to use this methodology to compose the quantitative lithofacies palaeogeographic maps,and to discuss the palaeogeographic units in these maps.Finally,three characteristics,i.e.,quantification,multiple orders and multiple types,of quantitative lithofacies palaeogeographic maps are conclusively discussed.

  18. 散装熟肉制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的定量风险评估%Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    田静; 樊永祥; 刘秀梅

    2011-01-01

    目的 对我国散装熟肉制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌(简称单增李斯特菌)的风险进行定量评估.方法 单增李斯特菌污染熟肉制品资料来源于2009年全国食源性疾病监测网,共涉及841份样品,对所有的841份样品进行了定性检验,另对其中的97份样品进行了定量检测;熟肉制品摄入量资料来源于2002年中国居民营养与健康调查的结果;收集国家统计局2008年监测点地区人口资料,估算不同年龄人口构成,作为评估不同人群疾病概率的基数.采用@Risk软件,按照危害识别、危害特征描述、暴露评估、风险特征描述等4个步骤定量评估0-4、5~64及65岁以上人群消费散装熟肉制品患李斯特菌病的风险,同时进行敏感性分析.结果 96.08%(808/841)的样品中单增李斯特菌的量<3 MPN/g(0.5 1g MPN/g),散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌浓度平均为-0.61 1g CFU/g,其90%可信区间为-1.22~0.46 1g CFU/g;推算我国0~4、5~64和65岁以上人群消费熟肉制品的份数分别为5.52×109、8.99×1010、1.01×1010;0~4、5~64及65岁以上人群消费散装熟肉制品每年引起每百万人患病的病例数的中位数分别为5.53×10-3、1.72×10-4、7.57×10-3.敏感性分析结果显示,零售时散装熟肉制品的污染情况、消费量、家庭贮存温度、家庭贮存时间及5℃的指数生长率与患病风险的关系均是正相关(r值分别为0.607、0.408、0.339、0.259、0.183,P值均<0.05).结论 我国散装熟肉制品具有引起单增李斯特菌病的风险;零售时散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌的污染情况对风险的影响最大.%Objective To conduct a quantitative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products in China.Methods The data on the contamination level of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked meat products was from national foodborne disease surveillance network.involving a total of 841samples.All the samples were

  19. Quantitative risk assessment of the contamination of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in aquatic products%市售水产品中副溶血性弧菌污染的定量风险评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王李伟; 张昭寰; 赵勇; 彭少杰

    2016-01-01

    Objective To estimate the health risk due to the consumption of aquatic products contaminated by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai , and provide the basis for control of foodborne diseases associated with this pathogen . Methods According to the guidelines provided by Codex Alimentarius Commission ( CAC) , we performed a quantitative microbial risk assessment model with four steps :hazard identification , hazard characterization , exposure assessment and risk characterization .The surveillance data of Vibrio parahaemolyticus concentration in aquatic products from Shanghai during 2011 and 2013 and Shanghai residents ’ aquatic products consumption data were added in the model .And the parameters were set in this model based on the FAO/WHO scientific literature .A Monte Carlo simulation method was employed to analyze the increase of Vibrio parahaemolyticus concentration in aquatic products from market to table, and quantify the exposure and health risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus by consuming aquatic products in Shanghai . Results The mean value of probability of infectious illness caused by aquatic products contaminated by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai was 1.2 ×10 -6 .That indicated the number of infectious illnesses associated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai might reach 10 746 cases every year based on the population data from Shanghai Statistical Yearbook in 2014 . Conclusion There is the certain health risk of suffering from the disease due to the consumption of aquatic products contaminated by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai .Decreasing the occurrence of eating raw aquatic products and controlling the temperature and time of aquatic products processing and storage were determined as the critical factors for suppressing foodborne diseases caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus.%目的:评估上海市居民通过水产品暴露副溶血性弧菌的健康风险,为防控副溶血性弧菌引起的食物中毒提供参考。方法以2011—2013

  20. Quantitative investment analysis

    CERN Document Server

    DeFusco, Richard

    2007-01-01

    In the "Second Edition" of "Quantitative Investment Analysis," financial experts Richard DeFusco, Dennis McLeavey, Jerald Pinto, and David Runkle outline the tools and techniques needed to understand and apply quantitative methods to today's investment process.

  1. Rigour in quantitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claydon, Leica Sarah

    2015-07-22

    This article which forms part of the research series addresses scientific rigour in quantitative research. It explores the basis and use of quantitative research and the nature of scientific rigour. It examines how the reader may determine whether quantitative research results are accurate, the questions that should be asked to determine accuracy and the checklists that may be used in this process. Quantitative research has advantages in nursing, since it can provide numerical data to help answer questions encountered in everyday practice.

  2. Quantitative Method of Representative Contaminants in Groundwater Pollution Risk Assessment%地下水污染风险评价中特征污染物量化方法探讨

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王俊杰; 何江涛; 陆燕; 刘丽雅; 张小亮

    2012-01-01

    In the light of the problem that stress vulnerability assessment in groundwater pollution risk assessment is lack of an effective quantitative system,a new system was proposed based on representative contaminants and corresponding emission quantities through the analysis of groundwater pollution sources.And quantitative method of the representative contaminants in this system was established by analyzing the three properties of representative contaminants and determining the research emphasis using analytic hierarchy process.The method had been applied to the assessment of Beijing groundwater pollution risk.The results demonstrated that the representative contaminants hazards greatly depended on different research emphasizes.There were also differences between the sequence of three representative contaminants hazards and their corresponding properties.It suggested that subjective tendency of the research emphasis had a decisive impact on calculation results.In addition,by the means of sequence to normalize the three properties and to unify the quantified properties results would zoom in or out of the relative properties characteristic of different representative contaminants.%针对地下水污染风险评价中的外界胁迫脆弱性评价缺乏有效量化体系这一问题,通过地下水污染源解析,提出了基于特征污染物及其对应排放量的量化体系;通过特征污染物属性解析及利用层次分析法确定研究侧重点,构建了该体系中的特征污染物量化方法.将该量化方法应用于北京市地下水污染风险评价,结果表明,依据不同研究侧重点得出的3种特征污染物危害性计算结果具有明显差异,并且3种危害性排序与对应的3种属性排序亦存在差异.由此表明,确定研究侧重点的主观倾向对特征污染物危害性计算结果有决定性影响.此外,在计算过程中,以序列值的方式解决3种属性的归一化及不同类别特征污染物属性量化结果

  3. 我国食品微生物定量风险评估的研究进展%Review of Progress in Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    董庆利; 王海梅; Pradeep K MALAKAR; 刘箐; 宋筱瑜; 田明胜; 陆冉冉

    2015-01-01

    近10余年来,我国政府重视食品安全并逐渐加强风险分析体系的构建和实施.根据历年来国家卫生与计生委的统计数据,表明由致病微生物导致的食物中毒发病率一直高于其他危害.食源性致病菌引起的食品安全风险是全球性问题,发展中国家面临的情况更为严峻,因此加强我国微生物定量风险评估以减少与发达国家的差距,从国家层面上势在必行.特别是2009年我国颁布实施《食品安全法》和2011年成立国家食品安全风险评估中心(China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment,CFSA)以来,已有不少针对国内具体食品致病菌情况开展的食品微生物定量风险评估(quantitative microbial risk assessment,QMRA)研究.本文对2000年至今我国已开展的QMRA研究,包括涉及的食品、致病菌、微生物预测模型、剂量-效应模型等进行详细综述.同时指出我国开展QMRA面临的技术性难题及解决方法,并对采用QMRA结果用于构建危害分析与关键控制点(Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point,HACCP)和食品安全目标(food safety objective,FSO)以及执行目标(performance objective,PO)的应用前景进行探讨.建议加强风险评估与风险管理的互动交流、进一步完善风险监测、微生物限量制定和国际合作,在完善实施指南的基础上针对我国具体国情开展更多具有科学性和系统性的QMRA研究.

  4. Molecular sensitivity threshold of wet mount and an immunochromatographic assay evaluated by quantitative real-time PCR for diagnosis of Trichomonas vaginalis infection in a low-risk population of childbearing women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leli, Christian; Castronari, Roberto; Levorato, Lucia; Luciano, Eugenio; Pistoni, Eleonora; Perito, Stefano; Bozza, Silvia; Mencacci, Antonella

    2016-06-01

    Vaginal trichomoniasis is a sexually transmitted infection caused by Trichomonas vaginalis, a flagellated protozoan. Diagnosis of T. vaginalis infection is mainly performed by wet mount microscopy, with a sensitivity ranging from 38% to 82%, compared to culture, still considered the gold standard. Commercial immunochromatographic tests for monoclonal-antibody-based detection have been introduced as alternative methods for diagnosis of T. vaginalis infection and have been reported in some studies to be more sensitive than wet mount. Real-time PCR methods have been recently developed, with optimal sensitivity and specificity. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether there is a molecular sensitivity threshold for both wet mount and imunochromatographic assays. To this aim, a total of 1487 low-risk childbearing women (median age 32 years, interquartile range 27-37) were included in the study, and underwent vaginal swab for T. vaginalis detection by means of a quantitative real-time PCR assay, wet mount and an immunochromatographic test. Upon comparing the results, prevalence values observed were 1.3% for real-time PCR, 0.5% for microscopic examination, and 0.8% for the immunochromatographic test. Compared to real-time PCR, wet mount sensitivity was 40% (95% confidence interval 19.1% to 63.9%) and specificity was 100% (95% CI 99.7% to 100%). The sensitivity and specificity of the immunochromatographic assay were 57.9% (95% CI 33.5% to 79.8%) and 99.9% (95% CI 99.6% to 100%), respectively. Evaluation of the wet mount results and those of immunochromatographic assay detection in relation to the number of T. vaginalis DNA copies detected in vaginal samples showed that the lower identification threshold for both wet mount (chi-square 6.1; P = 0.016) and the immunochromatographic assay (chi-square 10.7; P = 0.002) was ≥100 copies of T. vaginalis DNA/5 mcl of eluted DNA.

  5. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative inf

  6. Perception of risk of HIV infection in marital and cohabiting ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... women define risk and to identify the factors that influence risk perceptions in a setting with ... A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods was used during a ... The qualitative and quantitative data show that perception of risk of HIV ...

  7. Multi-parameter coupling quantitative risk calculation method for raw oil booster pump%原料油增压泵多参数耦合定量风险计算方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    保强; 王峰; 金旭; 杨欧; 赵艳坤

    2015-01-01

    渣油加氢装置中原料油增压泵输送的介质具有高温、高压和易燃的特点,泄漏后会直接导致着火事故。本文应用危险与可操作性分析(hazard and operability analysis,HAZOP)方法对原料油增压泵自身故障及故障后对整个装置造成的影响进行了定性风险分析得出,泄漏事故发生频率高且后果严重。为了定量计算原料油增压泵泄漏的风险,本文提出了原料油增压泵多参数耦合定量风险计算方法:辨识原料油增压泵所在节点内部因素间的耦合关系,建立贝叶斯网络,对多因素导致机械密封失效、填料密封失效、壳体破裂等事件的可能性概率进行定量计算;调研当地全年平均风速和太阳辐射等级统计结果,针对常见和极端的大气稳定度、风速条件影响,利用过程危害分析软件工具(process hazard analysis software tool,PHAST)模拟定量计算了不同泄漏孔直径情况下,高温原料油泄漏导致的喷射火后果严重程度;基于可能性概率和后果严重度计算结果,制定可能性和严重度等级判定标准,构建风险矩阵,针对不同原因导致的泄漏事故进行了风险评级。分析得到原因事件风险等级,用于确定风险预防措施和建立应急计划。%Raw oil delivered by booster pumps in a residue hydrogenation unit is often under high-temperature and high-pressure,resulting in fire hazard when leaking. Hazard and Operability Analysis(HAZOP),a multi-parameter coupling quantitative risk calculation was applied to qualitatively analyze the failures of the booster pump and the failure impacts on the entire process. It was concluded that the leakage accidents could happen frequently resulting in serious consequence. This method identified the coupling relationship among the internal factors of the process node that contains the booster pump,established a Bayesian network model for the whole process

  8. Quantitative Autonomic Testing

    OpenAIRE

    Novak, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Disorders associated with dysfunction of autonomic nervous system are quite common yet frequently unrecognized. Quantitative autonomic testing can be invaluable tool for evaluation of these disorders, both in clinic and research. There are number of autonomic tests, however, only few were validated clinically or are quantitative. Here, fully quantitative and clinically validated protocol for testing of autonomic functions is presented. As a bare minimum the clinical autonomic laboratory shoul...

  9. Quantitative Algebraic Reasoning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mardare, Radu Iulian; Panangaden, Prakash; Plotkin, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    We develop a quantitative analogue of equational reasoning which we call quantitative algebra. We define an equality relation indexed by rationals: a =ε b which we think of as saying that “a is approximately equal to b up to an error of ε”. We have 4 interesting examples where we have a quantitative...... equational theory whose free algebras correspond to well known structures. In each case we have finitary and continuous versions. The four cases are: Hausdorff metrics from quantitive semilattices; pWasserstein metrics (hence also the Kantorovich metric) from barycentric algebras and also from pointed...

  10. 中国居民膳食油脂多环芳烃暴露的定量风险评估%Quantitative risk assessment of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons dietary exposure from edible fats and oils in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曹梦思; 王君; 张立实; 严卫星

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the quantitative risk of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) dietary exposure from edible fats and oils in China. Methods One hundred samples of edible fats and oils were collected from the supermarkets and the farmers markets in 11 provinces of China from December in 2013 to May in 2014. Then they were tested for EU15+1 PAHs (16 PAHs were controlled in priority by European Food Safety Authority) by two test methods which were QuECHERS-GC-MS-MS and GPC-HPLC-FLD. Data of PAHs concentration and edible fats and oils consumption which were from Chinese National Nutrition and Health Survey in 2002 were combined to evaluate carcinogenic risk of PAHs in edible fats and oils by the method of margin of exposure (MOE). In this process, we divided the population into 6 groups, namely male adults (older than 18 years old), female adults (older than 18), male youths (13-17), female youths (13-17), school-agers (6-12) and preschoolers (2-5), and thought carcinogenicity as the critical toxicity end point of PAHs. Two quantitative risk assessment methods, i.e. point assessment and probability assessment, were used to evaluate the dietary exposure and MOEs. Results EU15+1 PAHs in one of 100 samples were not detected, other samples were polluted in different degrees;the detection rates were 3%-98%and the average contents were 0.26-3.26μg/kg. The results of PAHs dietary exposure from both of point assessment and probability assessment were the same. The average exposures of PAH8 were as the following:male adults were 10.03 and (9.34±12.61) ng·kg-1·d-1(The former was from point assessment and the latter from probability assessment, the same below), female adults were 9.95 and (9.60 ± 15.04) ng · kg-1·d-1, male youths were 11.09 and (10.84 ± 16.54) ng·kg-1·d-1, female youths were 10.06 and (9.58 ± 12.87) ng·kg-1·d-1,school-agers were 15.29 and (15.62±25.54) ng·kg-1·d-1, preschoolers were 19.27 and (19.22± 28.91) ng·kg-1·d-1. MOEs of mean

  11. Credit Institutions Management Evaluation using Quantitative Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Dardac

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Credit institutions supervising mission by state authorities is mostly assimilated with systemic risk prevention. In present, the mission is orientated on analyzing the risk profile of the credit institutions, the mechanism and existing systems as management tools providing to bank rules the proper instruments to avoid and control specific bank risks. Rating systems are sophisticated measurement instruments which are capable to assure the above objectives, such as success in banking risk management. The management quality is one of the most important elements from the set of variables used in the quoting process in credit operations. Evaluation of this quality is – generally speaking – fundamented on quantitative appreciations which can induce subjectivism and heterogeneity in quotation. The problem can be solved by using, complementary, quantitative technics such us DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis.

  12. 常见餐饮食品原料中沙门菌的定量风险评估%Quantitative microbiological risk assessment of Salmonella spp. in common catering foods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    樊永祥; 刘秀梅

    2008-01-01

    Objective To study the relationship between foodborne diseases (FBD) and contamination of Salmonella spp. in catering foods, quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) of Salmonella spp. was used to evaluate the food material or the ready to eat food. Methods The contamination data of Salmonella spp. in 10 896 food samples of 9 categories of food which were collected by National Food Contamination and Food Borne Disease Surveillance Net, combining with diet consumption data from National Food Nutrition Survey in 2002, were analyzed by the microbiological risk assessment model developed by WHO/FAO or FDA/FSIS of US to predict probability of FBD. Results The results of MRA showed that the probability of salmonellosis by consuming ready to eat meat in summer and autumn was 0. 20, much higher than the other foods. Although the contamination level in raw poultry was higher than meat, the probability of salmonellosis by raw poultry (9. 11 × 10 -6 ) was lower than meat (3. 14 × 10 -5 )because of the low consumption volume. Conclusion Probability of FBD was significantly correlated with the volume of food consumption, the status of economy and bacteria contamination level. The level of FBD in summer season was higher than in winter and spring because of ambient temperature.%目的 为了控制餐饮食品食源性疾病的发生,对餐饮食品原料中沙门菌进行了定量风险评估.方法 采用国家食源性疾病监测网2004年获得的常见9类共10 896份食品中沙门菌污染数据,参考国际食品法典委员和美国农业部建立的即食肉制品中沙门菌致病的剂量-反应关系模型,根据我国居民营养调查数据获得的被评估食品的每日摄入量,对食品污染沙门菌后,人群发生疾病的致病概率进行了评估和预测.结果 评估结果表明,夏秋季节熟肉制品导致沙门菌中毒的致病概率约为0.20,远远高于生肉制品;尽管禽肉的污染水平高于畜肉,但是由于消费量和

  13. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  14. Quantitative penetration testing with item response theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, Florian; Pieters, Wolter; Stoelinga, Mariëlle

    2014-01-01

    Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Thus, penetration testing has so far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management, including

  15. Quantitative penetration testing with item response theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieters, W.; Arnold, F.; Stoelinga, M.I.A.

    2013-01-01

    Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Therefore, penetration testing has thus far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management, in

  16. Quantitative penetration testing with item response theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, Florian; Pieters, Wolter; Stoelinga, Mariëlle

    2013-01-01

    Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Thus, penetration testing has so far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management, including

  17. Quantitative film radiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devine, G.; Dobie, D.; Fugina, J.; Hernandez, J.; Logan, C.; Mohr, P.; Moss, R.; Schumacher, B.; Updike, E.; Weirup, D.

    1991-02-26

    We have developed a system of quantitative radiography in order to produce quantitative images displaying homogeneity of parts. The materials that we characterize are synthetic composites and may contain important subtle density variations not discernible by examining a raw film x-radiograph. In order to quantitatively interpret film radiographs, it is necessary to digitize, interpret, and display the images. Our integrated system of quantitative radiography displays accurate, high-resolution pseudo-color images in units of density. We characterize approximately 10,000 parts per year in hundreds of different configurations and compositions with this system. This report discusses: the method; film processor monitoring and control; verifying film and processor performance; and correction of scatter effects.

  18. On Quantitative Rorschach Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haggard, Ernest A.

    1978-01-01

    Two types of quantitative Rorschach scales are discussed: first, those based on the response categories of content, location, and the determinants, and second, global scales based on the subject's responses to all ten stimulus cards. (Author/JKS)

  19. Multivariate Quantitative Chemical Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinchen, David G.; Capezza, Mary

    1995-01-01

    Technique of multivariate quantitative chemical analysis devised for use in determining relative proportions of two components mixed and sprayed together onto object to form thermally insulating foam. Potentially adaptable to other materials, especially in process-monitoring applications in which necessary to know and control critical properties of products via quantitative chemical analyses of products. In addition to chemical composition, also used to determine such physical properties as densities and strengths.

  20. Multivariate Quantitative Chemical Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinchen, David G.; Capezza, Mary

    1995-01-01

    Technique of multivariate quantitative chemical analysis devised for use in determining relative proportions of two components mixed and sprayed together onto object to form thermally insulating foam. Potentially adaptable to other materials, especially in process-monitoring applications in which necessary to know and control critical properties of products via quantitative chemical analyses of products. In addition to chemical composition, also used to determine such physical properties as densities and strengths.

  1. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... basic components of sound market risk management. For example, the current market risk capital rule requires an independent risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and an internal risk measurement model that is integrated into the daily management process. The quantitative criteria include the...

  2. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction detection of minimal residual disease by standardized WT1 assay to enhance risk stratification in acute myeloid leukemia: a European LeukemiaNet study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cilloni, D.; Renneville, A.; Hermitte, F.; Hills, R.K.; Daly, S.; Jovanovic, J.V.; Gottardi, E.; Fava, M.; Schnittger, S.; Weiss, T.; Izzo, B.; Nomdedeu, J.; Heijden, A. van der; Reijden, B.A. van der; Jansen, J.H.; Velden, V.H. van der; Ommen, H.; Preudhomme, C.; Saglio, G.; Grimwade, D.

    2009-01-01

    PURPOSE: Risk stratification in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is currently based on pretreatment characteristics. It remains to be established whether relapse risk can be better predicted through assessment of minimal residual disease (MRD). One proposed marker is the Wilms tumor gene WT1, which is o

  3. Potential health gains and health losses in eleven EU countries attainable through feasible prevalences of the life-style related risk factors alcohol, BMI, and smoking : a quantitative health impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lhachimi, Stefan K; Nusselder, Wilma J; Smit, Henriette A; Baili, Paolo; Bennett, Kathleen; Fernández, Esteve; Kulik, Margarete C; Lobstein, Tim; Pomerleau, Joceline; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Influencing the life-style risk-factors alcohol, body mass index (BMI), and smoking is an European Union (EU) wide objective of public health policy. The population-level health effects of these risk-factors depend on population specific characteristics and are difficult to quantify

  4. Potential health gains and health losses in eleven EU countries attainable through feasible prevalences of the life-style related risk factors alcohol, BMI, and smoking : a quantitative health impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lhachimi, Stefan K; Nusselder, Wilma J; Smit, Henriette A; Baili, Paolo; Bennett, Kathleen; Fernández, Esteve; Kulik, Margarete C; Lobstein, Tim; Pomerleau, Joceline; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Influencing the life-style risk-factors alcohol, body mass index (BMI), and smoking is an European Union (EU) wide objective of public health policy. The population-level health effects of these risk-factors depend on population specific characteristics and are difficult to quantify with

  5. Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jusun; Lee, Kyunglee; Walsh, Daniel P.; Kim, SangWha; Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Lee, Hang

    2017-01-01

    Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts’ opinions. To examine the experts’ perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and

  6. Quantitative autonomic testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novak, Peter

    2011-07-19

    Disorders associated with dysfunction of autonomic nervous system are quite common yet frequently unrecognized. Quantitative autonomic testing can be invaluable tool for evaluation of these disorders, both in clinic and research. There are number of autonomic tests, however, only few were validated clinically or are quantitative. Here, fully quantitative and clinically validated protocol for testing of autonomic functions is presented. As a bare minimum the clinical autonomic laboratory should have a tilt table, ECG monitor, continuous noninvasive blood pressure monitor, respiratory monitor and a mean for evaluation of sudomotor domain. The software for recording and evaluation of autonomic tests is critical for correct evaluation of data. The presented protocol evaluates 3 major autonomic domains: cardiovagal, adrenergic and sudomotor. The tests include deep breathing, Valsalva maneuver, head-up tilt, and quantitative sudomotor axon test (QSART). The severity and distribution of dysautonomia is quantitated using Composite Autonomic Severity Scores (CASS). Detailed protocol is provided highlighting essential aspects of testing with emphasis on proper data acquisition, obtaining the relevant parameters and unbiased evaluation of autonomic signals. The normative data and CASS algorithm for interpretation of results are provided as well.

  7. Quantitative genetics of disease traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray, N R; Visscher, P M

    2015-04-01

    John James authored two key papers on the theory of risk to relatives for binary disease traits and the relationship between parameters on the observed binary scale and an unobserved scale of liability (James Annals of Human Genetics, 1971; 35: 47; Reich, James and Morris Annals of Human Genetics, 1972; 36: 163). These two papers are John James' most cited papers (198 and 328 citations, November 2014). They have been influential in human genetics and have recently gained renewed popularity because of their relevance to the estimation of quantitative genetics parameters for disease traits using SNP data. In this review, we summarize the two early papers and put them into context. We show recent extensions of the theory for ascertained case-control data and review recent applications in human genetics.

  8. 基于条件价值评估法的中国巨灾风险保险模式定量设计——基于网络问卷调查的实证研究%The Quantitative Design of China Catastrophe Risk Insurance Mode Based on Contingent Valuation Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张旭升; 刘冬姣

    2012-01-01

    The paucity of empirical data of catastrophe risk loss makes the insurer to difficultly design the reasonable catastrophe risk insurance pattern. Based on the quasi-public goods properties of catastrophe risk insurance and the network questionnaire, this theory firstly quantitatively designs some main items of China catastrophe risk insurance mode according to consumer wish, which can overcomes the defects of general methods of non-life insurance premium rate making and also has positive significance to correct the market failure of catastrophe risk insurance.%巨灾风险损失经验数据的缺乏使得保险人设计合理的巨灾风险保险模式存在较大困难.基于巨灾风险保险的准公共物品性质,通过网络问卷调查,运用条件价值评估法,从消费者意愿角度对中国巨灾风险保险模式的主要项目进行定量设计,可以克服非寿险常规费率厘定方法的缺陷,对纠正巨灾风险保险市场失灵亦有积极意义.

  9. Quantitative Hydrocarbon Surface Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Vonnie M.

    2000-01-01

    The elimination of ozone depleting substances, such as carbon tetrachloride, has resulted in the use of new analytical techniques for cleanliness verification and contamination sampling. The last remaining application at Rocketdyne which required a replacement technique was the quantitative analysis of hydrocarbons by infrared spectrometry. This application, which previously utilized carbon tetrachloride, was successfully modified using the SOC-400, a compact portable FTIR manufactured by Surface Optics Corporation. This instrument can quantitatively measure and identify hydrocarbons from solvent flush of hardware as well as directly analyze the surface of metallic components without the use of ozone depleting chemicals. Several sampling accessories are utilized to perform analysis for various applications.

  10. Cancer detection by quantitative fluorescence image analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, W L; Hemstreet, G P

    1988-02-01

    Quantitative fluorescence image analysis is a rapidly evolving biophysical cytochemical technology with the potential for multiple clinical and basic research applications. We report the application of this technique for bladder cancer detection and discuss its potential usefulness as an adjunct to methods used currently by urologists for the diagnosis and management of bladder cancer. Quantitative fluorescence image analysis is a cytological method that incorporates 2 diagnostic techniques, quantitation of nuclear deoxyribonucleic acid and morphometric analysis, in a single semiautomated system to facilitate the identification of rare events, that is individual cancer cells. When compared to routine cytopathology for detection of bladder cancer in symptomatic patients, quantitative fluorescence image analysis demonstrated greater sensitivity (76 versus 33 per cent) for the detection of low grade transitional cell carcinoma. The specificity of quantitative fluorescence image analysis in a small control group was 94 per cent and with the manual method for quantitation of absolute nuclear fluorescence intensity in the screening of high risk asymptomatic subjects the specificity was 96.7 per cent. The more familiar flow cytometry is another fluorescence technique for measurement of nuclear deoxyribonucleic acid. However, rather than identifying individual cancer cells, flow cytometry identifies cellular pattern distributions, that is the ratio of normal to abnormal cells. Numerous studies by others have shown that flow cytometry is a sensitive method to monitor patients with diagnosed urological disease. Based upon results in separate quantitative fluorescence image analysis and flow cytometry studies, it appears that these 2 fluorescence techniques may be complementary tools for urological screening, diagnosis and management, and that they also may be useful separately or in combination to elucidate the oncogenic process, determine the biological potential of tumors

  11. Quantitative Analysis of the Operating Risks of Private Bank:A Study Based on AHP Analysis%基于层次分析法的民营银行经营风险实证分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴少新; 李敏芳

    2015-01-01

    The main sources of the business risk of private bank are risk of residents’ trust, risk of related party transac-tions and risk of insufficient funds.There are six suggestions to prevent the business risk of private bank. Firstly, private bank can innovate the financial allocation system to improve residents’ trust; Secondly, private bank could establish a regulatory technology of related party transactions to prevent the risk of related party transactions; Thirdly, we should build a deposit in-surance system as soon as possible to attract deposits; Fourthly, private bank can limit the number of shareholders ’ credit loans to avoid the risk of internal control; Fifthly, private bank may service remote areas to improve competitiveness in the industry; Finally, we need to build a good credit environment to prevent the risk of breaking a contract.%影响民营银行经营风险的主要因素有居民信任风险、关联交易风险和存款不足风险等。防范民营银行经营风险可从以下六个方面着手:一是进行财务分配制度创新,提高居民信任度;二是建立关联交易的监管技术,防范关联交易风险;三是尽快建立存款保险制度,吸纳存款;四是限制股东信用贷款数量,避免内部人控制风险;五是服务县域经济,提高在行业中的竞争力;六是构建良好的信用环境,防范违约风险。

  12. 基于主成分分析法土地储备风险的定量评估%Quantitative Land Reserve Risk Assessment Based on Principal Component Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱家明; 程倩倩; 朱海龙

    2015-01-01

    Aiming at the risk assessment for land reserve programs, the authors used Excel land reserve programs to screen and process related data, then employed the principal component analysis, fuzzy C-means clustering analysis and normality test methods to establish a land reserve program risk and other related evaluation model.Finally, Matlab programming was used to get total risk primarily through the establishment of risk assessment index to measure land reserve programs, and to establish appropriate risk assessment standard,at last, an effective approach for land reserve risk assessment was attained.%针对土地储备方案的风险评估,使用Excel对所给土地储备方案的相关数据筛选和处理,其次采取主成分分析、模糊C均值聚类分析和正态性检验等方法,建立了土地储备方案风险等相关的评价模型。运用Matlab编程,得到了主要通过建立风险评价指标来衡量土地储备方案的总风险,并确立相应的风险评价标准,得到了对土地储备风险进行有效评估的方法。

  13. Quantitative Intracerebral Hemorrhage Localization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muschelli, John; Ullman, Natalie L.; Sweeney, Elizabeth M.; Eloyan, Ani; Martin, Neil; Vespa, Paul; Hanley, Daniel F.; Crainiceanu, Ciprian M.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose The location of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is currently described in a qualitative way; we provide a quantitative framework for estimating ICH engagement and its relevance to stroke outcomes. Methods We analyzed 111 patients with ICH from the MISTIE II clinical trial. We estimated ICH engagement at a population level using image registration of CT scans to a template and a previously labeled atlas. Predictive regions of NIHSS and GCS stroke severity scores, collected at enrollment, were estimated. Results The percent coverage of the ICH by these regions strongly outperformed the reader-labeled locations. The adjusted R2 almost doubled from 0.129 (reader-labeled model) to 0.254 (quantitative-location model) for NIHSS and more than tripled from 0.069 (reader-labeled model) to 0.214 (quantitative-location model). A permutation test confirmed that the new predictive regions are more predictive than chance: p<.001 for NIHSS and p<.01 for GCS. Conclusions Objective measures of ICH location and engagement using advanced CT imaging processing provide finer, objective, and more quantitative anatomic information than that provided by human readers. PMID:26451031

  14. Critical Quantitative Inquiry in Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stage, Frances K.; Wells, Ryan S.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter briefly traces the development of the concept of critical quantitative inquiry, provides an expanded conceptualization of the tasks of critical quantitative research, offers theoretical explanation and justification for critical research using quantitative methods, and previews the work of quantitative criticalists presented in this…

  15. Critical Quantitative Inquiry in Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stage, Frances K.; Wells, Ryan S.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter briefly traces the development of the concept of critical quantitative inquiry, provides an expanded conceptualization of the tasks of critical quantitative research, offers theoretical explanation and justification for critical research using quantitative methods, and previews the work of quantitative criticalists presented in this…

  16. Potential health gains and health losses in eleven EU countries attainable through feasible prevalences of the life-style related risk factors alcohol, BMI, and smoking: a quantitative health impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lhachimi, Stefan K; Nusselder, Wilma J; Smit, Henriette A; Baili, Paolo; Bennett, Kathleen; Fernández, Esteve; Kulik, Margarete C; Lobstein, Tim; Pomerleau, Joceline; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    2016-08-05

    Influencing the life-style risk-factors alcohol, body mass index (BMI), and smoking is an European Union (EU) wide objective of public health policy. The population-level health effects of these risk-factors depend on population specific characteristics and are difficult to quantify without dynamic population health models. For eleven countries-approx. 80 % of the EU-27 population-we used evidence from the publicly available DYNAMO-HIA data-set. For each country the age- and sex-specific risk-factor prevalence and the incidence, prevalence, and excess mortality of nine chronic diseases are utilized; including the corresponding relative risks linking risk-factor exposure causally to disease incidence and all-cause mortality. Applying the DYNAMO-HIA tool, we dynamically project the country-wise potential health gains and losses using feasible, i.e. observed elsewhere, risk-factor prevalence rates as benchmarks. The effects of the "worst practice", "best practice", and the currently observed risk-factor prevalence on population health are quantified and expected changes in life expectancy, morbidity-free life years, disease cases, and cumulative mortality are reported. Applying the best practice smoking prevalence yields the largest gains in life expectancy with 0.4 years for males and 0.3 year for females (approx. 332,950 and 274,200 deaths postponed, respectively) while the worst practice smoking prevalence also leads to the largest losses with 0.7 years for males and 0.9 year for females (approx. 609,400 and 710,550 lives lost, respectively). Comparing morbidity-free life years, the best practice smoking prevalence shows the highest gains for males with 0.4 years (342,800 less disease cases), whereas for females the best practice BMI prevalence yields the largest gains with 0.7 years (1,075,200 less disease cases). Smoking is still the risk-factor with the largest potential health gains. BMI, however, has comparatively large effects on morbidity. Future

  17. Towards the production of reliable quantitative microbiological data for risk assessment: Direct quantification of Campylobacter in naturally infected chicken fecal samples using selective culture and real-time PCR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia Clavero, Ana Belén; Vigre, Håkan; Josefsen, Mathilde Hasseldam

    2015-01-01

    Poultry has been identified as a significant source for human campylobacteriosis which constitutes an important zoonosis and public health problem in many areas of the world. Rapid, direct and accurate quantification of Campylobacter in poultry is essential for the assessment of public health risks...

  18. A quantitative assessment of the BSE risk associated with fly ash and slag from the incineration of meat-and-bone meal in a gas-fired power plant in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry; Hostrup-Pedersen, J.

    2005-01-01

    in controlied landfills and the feasibility of use of the ash by the phosphate and fertilizer industries. We assumed that all specified risk material (SRM) and MBM produced in Denmark would be incinerated in this gas-fired power plant. Based on observations in 2001, we assumed that, on average, six (range: 0...

  19. Energy & Climate: Getting Quantitative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfson, Richard

    2011-11-01

    A noted environmentalist claims that buying an SUV instead of a regular car is energetically equivalent to leaving your refrigerator door open for seven years. A fossil-fuel apologist argues that solar energy is a pie-in-the-sky dream promulgated by na"ive environmentalists, because there's nowhere near enough solar energy to meet humankind's energy demand. A group advocating shutdown of the Vermont Yankee nuclear plant claims that 70% of its electrical energy is lost in transmission lines. Around the world, thousands agitate for climate action, under the numerical banner ``350.'' Neither the environmentalist, the fossil-fuel apologist, the antinuclear activists, nor most of those marching under the ``350'' banner can back up their assertions with quantitative arguments. Yet questions about energy and its environmental impacts almost always require quantitative answers. Physics can help! This poster gives some cogent examples, based on the newly published 2^nd edition of the author's textbook Energy, Environment, and Climate.

  20. Quantitation of signal transduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, S; Brand, M D

    2000-12-01

    Conventional qualitative approaches to signal transduction provide powerful ways to explore the architecture and function of signaling pathways. However, at the level of the complete system, they do not fully depict the interactions between signaling and metabolic pathways and fail to give a manageable overview of the complexity that is often a feature of cellular signal transduction. Here, we introduce a quantitative experimental approach to signal transduction that helps to overcome these difficulties. We present a quantitative analysis of signal transduction during early mitogen stimulation of lymphocytes, with steady-state respiration rate as a convenient marker of metabolic stimulation. First, by inhibiting various key signaling pathways, we measure their relative importance in regulating respiration. About 80% of the input signal is conveyed via identifiable routes: 50% through pathways sensitive to inhibitors of protein kinase C and MAP kinase and 30% through pathways sensitive to an inhibitor of calcineurin. Second, we quantify how each of these pathways differentially stimulates functional units of reactions that produce and consume a key intermediate in respiration: the mitochondrial membrane potential. Both the PKC and calcineurin routes stimulate consumption more strongly than production, whereas the unidentified signaling routes stimulate production more than consumption, leading to no change in membrane potential despite increased respiration rate. The approach allows a quantitative description of the relative importance of signal transduction pathways and the routes by which they activate a specific cellular process. It should be widely applicable.

  1. Quantitative traits and diversification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    FitzJohn, Richard G

    2010-12-01

    Quantitative traits have long been hypothesized to affect speciation and extinction rates. For example, smaller body size or increased specialization may be associated with increased rates of diversification. Here, I present a phylogenetic likelihood-based method (quantitative state speciation and extinction [QuaSSE]) that can be used to test such hypotheses using extant character distributions. This approach assumes that diversification follows a birth-death process where speciation and extinction rates may vary with one or more traits that evolve under a diffusion model. Speciation and extinction rates may be arbitrary functions of the character state, allowing much flexibility in testing models of trait-dependent diversification. I test the approach using simulated phylogenies and show that a known relationship between speciation and a quantitative character could be recovered in up to 80% of the cases on large trees (500 species). Consistent with other approaches, detecting shifts in diversification due to differences in extinction rates was harder than when due to differences in speciation rates. Finally, I demonstrate the application of QuaSSE to investigate the correlation between body size and diversification in primates, concluding that clade-specific differences in diversification may be more important than size-dependent diversification in shaping the patterns of diversity within this group.

  2. Approaches to acceptable risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whipple, C.

    1997-04-30

    Several alternative approaches to address the question {open_quotes}How safe is safe enough?{close_quotes} are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made.

  3. Tools for microbiological risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bassett, J; Nauta, M; Lindqvist, R.; Zwietering, M. H.

    2012-01-01

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute ...

  4. Quantitative analysis of privatization

    CERN Document Server

    Vahabi, M

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, the economic policy of privatization, which is defined as the transfer of property or responsibility from public sector to private sector, is one of the global phenomenon that increases use of markets to allocate resources. One important motivation for privatization is to help develop factor and product markets, as well as security markets. Progress in privatization is correlated with improvements in perceived political and investment risk. Many emerging countries have gradually reduced their political risks during the course of sustained privatization. In fact, most risk resolution seems to take place as privatization proceeds to its later stage. Alternative benefits of privatization are improved risk sharing and increased liquidity and activity of the market. One of the main methods to develop privatization is entering a new stock to the markets for arising competition. However, attention to the capability of the markets to accept a new stock is substantial. Without considering the above st...

  5. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  6. 海南居民对高温天气健康风险的感知%A quantitative survey on perceptions of hot temperature health risks among residents in Hainan Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李旭东; 陈平; 王长科; 么鸿雁

    2013-01-01

    Objective To investigate the residents' perceptions of high temperatures risks to health,and explore the related factors.Methods Questionnaires were used to investigate adult residents in Haikou City,Sanya City,Ding'an County and Changjiang.County,1316 valid questionnaires were collected.Results The mean score of the risk perception in related to high temperatures among the resident was (2.95 + 0.95),the percentage of the participants who thought high temperatures was not dangerous at all,somewhat dangerous,dangerous,more dangerous,and very dangerous to the health of oneself was 7.15%,22.41%,42.86%,23.63% and 3.95%,respectively.Higher risk perception in the residents living in high temperatures-prone areas (OR =1.95,95% CI:1.33-2.86),the knowledge able about high temperatures (OR =1.91,95 % CI:1.23-2.95),poor health (OR =1.84,95 % CI:1.00-3.37),who aggravated of pre-existing illness in hot weather (OR =3.95,95 % CI:2.99-5.22) and low income (OR =2.99,95 % CI:1.52-5.87).Condusion There is a lack of risk perception to high temperature risks to health among the residents in Hainan Province.We should establish an effective heat health warning system in the future,and improve the perception of the public health risk of high temperatures through effective risk communication methods.%目的 了解海南省居民对高温天气健康风险的感知情况.方法 以海南省18周岁以上居民为研究对象,采用自填式问卷在海南省沿海地区的海口市、三亚市、定安县、昌江县进行调查,共回收有效问卷1316份.结果 调查对象高温天气健康风险感知度平均得分为(2.95±0.95)分,认为高温天气对自己健康危害几乎没有、较小、一般、较大和很大者分别占7.15%、22.41%、42.86%、23.63%和3.95%.多因素Logistic回归分析显示,居住在高温天气频发地区、相关知识了解程度高、健康状况较差、在高温天气中原有疾病加重者、家庭收入低

  7. Directional and quantitative phosphorylation networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Claus; Linding, Rune

    2008-01-01

    for unravelling phosphorylation-mediated cellular interaction networks. In particular, we will discuss how the combination of new quantitative mass-spectrometric technologies and computational algorithms together are enhancing mapping of these largely uncharted dynamic networks. By combining quantitative...

  8. Risk monitor in Balakovo. Watcher Risk; Monitor de riesgo en Balakovo. Risk Watcher

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osorio de Rebellon, F.; Lopez, C.; Sanchez, A.

    2011-07-01

    The ultimate goal of the project was the implementation of technology risk monitor VVER-1000, and the transfer of knowledge. The primary outcome was the risk monitor installation Risk Watcher in Balakovo, is currently fully operational to provide quantitative and qualitative information to monitor the safety of the plant.

  9. F# for quantitative finance

    CERN Document Server

    Astborg, Johan

    2013-01-01

    To develop your confidence in F#, this tutorial will first introduce you to simpler tasks such as curve fitting. You will then advance to more complex tasks such as implementing algorithms for trading semi-automation in a practical scenario-based format.If you are a data analyst or a practitioner in quantitative finance, economics, or mathematics and wish to learn how to use F# as a functional programming language, this book is for you. You should have a basic conceptual understanding of financial concepts and models. Elementary knowledge of the .NET framework would also be helpful.

  10. Designing quantitative telemedicine research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Victoria; Barnett, Adrian G; Martin-Khan, Melinda; Russell, Trevor

    2016-10-27

    When designing quantitative trials and evaluation of telehealth interventions, researchers should think ahead to the intended way that the intervention could be implemented in routine care and consider how trial participants with similar characteristics to the target population can be included. The telehealth intervention and the context in which it is placed should be clearly described, and consideration given to conducting pragmatic trials in order to show the effect of telehealth in complex environments with rapidly changing technology. Types of research designs, comparators and outcome measures are discussed and common statistical issues are introduced. © The Author(s) 2016.

  11. Quantitative immunoglobulins in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crisp, Howard C; Quinn, James M

    2009-01-01

    Although age-related changes in serum immunoglobulins are well described in childhood, alterations in immunoglobulins in the elderly are less well described and published. This study was designed to better define expected immunoglobulin ranges and differences in adults of differing decades of life. Sera from 404 patients, aged 20-89 years old were analyzed for quantitative immunoglobulin G (IgG), immunoglobulin M (IgM), and immunoglobulin A (IgA). The patients with diagnoses or medications known to affect immunoglobulin levels were identified while blinded to their immunoglobulin levels. A two-factor ANOVA was performed using decade of life and gender on both the entire sample population as well as the subset without any disease or medication expected to alter immunoglobulin levels. A literature review was also performed on all English language articles evaluating quantitative immunoglobulin levels in adults >60 years old. For the entire population, IgM was found to be higher in women when compared with men (p immunoglobulin levels, the differences in IgM with gender and age were maintained (p immunoglobulin levels have higher serum IgA levels and lower serum IgM levels. Women have higher IgM levels than men throughout life. IgG levels are not significantly altered in an older population.

  12. Is quantitative electromyography reliable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecere, F; Ruf, S; Pancherz, H

    1996-01-01

    The reliability of quantitative electromyography (EMG) of the masticatory muscles was investigated in 14 subjects without any signs or symptoms of temporomandibular disorders. Integrated EMG activity from the anterior temporalis and masseter muscles was recorded bilaterally by means of bipolar surface electrodes during chewing and biting activities. In the first experiment, the influence of electrode relocation was investigated. No influence of electrode relocation on the recorded EMG signal could be detected. In a second experiment, three sessions of EMG recordings during five different chewing and biting activities were performed in the morning (I); 1 hour later without intermediate removal of the electrodes (II); and in the afternoon, using new electrodes (III). The method errors for different time intervals (I-II and I-III errors) for each muscle and each function were calculated. Depending on the time interval between the EMG recordings, the muscles considered, and the function performed, the individual errors ranged from 5% to 63%. The method error increased significantly (P masseter (mean 27.2%) was higher than for the temporalis (mean 20.0%). The largest function error was found during maximal biting in intercuspal position (mean 23.1%). Based on the findings, quantitative electromyography of the masticatory muscles seems to have a limited value in diagnostics and in the evaluation of individual treatment results.

  13. Fuzzy Evaluation of the Risk of Investment in Securities in the Portfolio Optimization Problem

    OpenAIRE

    Siniavskaya, O. A.; Zhelezko, B. A.

    2007-01-01

    Investment in securities always associates with the risk, but in practice it is enough difficult to evaluate the risk quantitatively. There is no united opinion about quantitative evaluation of the risk in the theory of finance. Two models of the risk evaluation are the most popularized: Value-at-Risk (VaR) model and risk interpretation as standard deviation of the security return.

  14. A Study on Internal Risk Identification and Quantitative Measurement of Industrial Cluster Based on Fuzzy AHP Model%基于模糊AHP模型的产业集群内部风险识别及其定量测度研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈又星

    2011-01-01

    The article does internal risk identification and quantitative measurement of industrial cluster based on the problem of fuzzy uncertainty. Then the article takes a particular industry cluster as an example to illustrate the model's validity,reliability and practicality. It has a more important theoretical and practical value because the research provides a new thinking for business and government to do decision - making of industry.%基于问题的模糊不确定性,运用模糊AHP模型时产业集群内部风险进行识别和定量测度,并以某一具体产业集群为例,以说明该模型的有效性、可靠性和实用性为企业和政府进行产业决策提供一种新思路和新方法.

  15. Overestimation of the Legionella spp. load in environmental samples by quantitative real-time PCR: pretreatment with propidium monoazide as a tool for the assessment of an association between Legionella concentration and sanitary risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditommaso, Savina; Ricciardi, Elisa; Giacomuzzi, Monica; Arauco Rivera, Susan R; Ceccarelli, Adriano; Zotti, Carla M

    2014-12-01

    Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) offers rapid, sensitive, and specific detection of Legionella in environmental water samples. In this study, qPCR and qPCR combined with propidium monoazide (PMA-qPCR) were both applied to hot-water system samples and compared to traditional culture techniques. In addition, we evaluated the ability of PMA-qPCR to monitor the efficacy of different disinfection strategies. Comparison between the quantification obtained by culture and by qPCR or PMA-qPCR on environmental water samples confirms that the concentration of Legionella estimated by GU/L is generally higher than that estimated in CFU/L. Our results on 57 hot-water-system samples collected from 3 different sites show that: i) qPCR results were on average 178-fold higher than the culture results (Δ log10=2.25), ii) PMA-qPCR results were on average 27-fold higher than the culture results (Δ log10=1.43), iii) propidium monoazide-induced signal reduction in qPCR were nearly 10-fold (Δ log10=0.95), and that iv) different degrees of correlations between the 3 methods might be explained by different matrix properties, but also by different disinfection methods affecting cultivability of Legionella. In our study, we calculated the logarithmic differences between the results obtained by PMA-qPCR and those obtained by culture, and we suggested an algorithm for the interpretation of PMA-qPCR results for the routine monitoring of healthcare water systems using a commercial qPCR system (iQ-check real-time PCR kit; Bio-Rad, Marnes-la-Coquette, France).

  16. Quantitative velocity modulation spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodges, James N.; McCall, Benjamin J.

    2016-05-01

    Velocity Modulation Spectroscopy (VMS) is arguably the most important development in the 20th century for spectroscopic study of molecular ions. For decades, interpretation of VMS lineshapes has presented challenges due to the intrinsic covariance of fit parameters including velocity modulation amplitude, linewidth, and intensity. This limitation has stifled the growth of this technique into the quantitative realm. In this work, we show that subtle changes in the lineshape can be used to help address this complexity. This allows for determination of the linewidth, intensity relative to other transitions, velocity modulation amplitude, and electric field strength in the positive column of a glow discharge. Additionally, we explain the large homogeneous component of the linewidth that has been previously described. Using this component, the ion mobility can be determined.

  17. Quantitative metamaterial property extraction

    CERN Document Server

    Schurig, David

    2015-01-01

    We examine an extraction model for metamaterials, not previously reported, that gives precise, quantitative and causal representation of S parameter data over a broad frequency range, up to frequencies where the free space wavelength is only a modest factor larger than the unit cell dimension. The model is comprised of superposed, slab shaped response regions of finite thickness, one for each observed resonance. The resonance dispersion is Lorentzian and thus strictly causal. This new model is compared with previous models for correctness likelihood, including an appropriate Occam's factor for each fit parameter. We find that this new model is by far the most likely to be correct in a Bayesian analysis of model fits to S parameter simulation data for several classic metamaterial unit cells.

  18. Quantitative Hyperspectral Reflectance Imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ted A.G. Steemers

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Hyperspectral imaging is a non-destructive optical analysis technique that can for instance be used to obtain information from cultural heritage objects unavailable with conventional colour or multi-spectral photography. This technique can be used to distinguish and recognize materials, to enhance the visibility of faint or obscured features, to detect signs of degradation and study the effect of environmental conditions on the object. We describe the basic concept, working principles, construction and performance of a laboratory instrument specifically developed for the analysis of historical documents. The instrument measures calibrated spectral reflectance images at 70 wavelengths ranging from 365 to 1100 nm (near-ultraviolet, visible and near-infrared. By using a wavelength tunable narrow-bandwidth light-source, the light energy used to illuminate the measured object is minimal, so that any light-induced degradation can be excluded. Basic analysis of the hyperspectral data includes a qualitative comparison of the spectral images and the extraction of quantitative data such as mean spectral reflectance curves and statistical information from user-defined regions-of-interest. More sophisticated mathematical feature extraction and classification techniques can be used to map areas on the document, where different types of ink had been applied or where one ink shows various degrees of degradation. The developed quantitative hyperspectral imager is currently in use by the Nationaal Archief (National Archives of The Netherlands to study degradation effects of artificial samples and original documents, exposed in their permanent exhibition area or stored in their deposit rooms.

  19. Risk Control of Offshore Installations. A Framework for the Establishment of Risk Indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oeien, Knut

    2001-07-01

    Currently quantitative risk assessments are carried out to analyze the risk level of offshore installations and to evaluate whether or not the risk level is acceptable. By way of the quantitative risk analysis the risk status of a given installation is obtained. However, the risk status is obtained so infrequently that it is inadequate for risk control. It can be compared to economic control having the economic status presented about each fifth year, which is obviously inadequate. It is important to know the risk status because this may provide an early warning about the need for remedial actions. Without frequent information about the risk status, control of risk cannot be claimed. The main objective of this thesis has been the development of a framework for the establishment of risk indicators. These risk indicators provide a status of the risk level through measuring of changes in technical, operational and organizational factors important to risk, and is thus a means to control risk during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The framework consists of a technical methodology using the quantitative risk assessment as a basis, an organizational model, and an organizational quantification methodology. Technical risk indicators are established from the technical methodology covering the risk factors explicitly included in the quantitative risk assessment. Organizational risk indicators measure changes in the organizational risk factors included in the organizational model, but not included in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational model is an extension to the risk model in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational quantification methodology calculates the effect of the changes measured by the organizational risk indicators. The organizational model may also be applied as a qualitative tool for root cause analysis of incidents (process leaks). Other results are an intermediate-level expert judgment procedure applicable for

  20. Risk analysis and emergency management of ammonia installations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ham, J.M.; Gansevoort, J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Quantitative Risk Assessment has been increasing for evaluating the risk of handling hazardous materials and land-use planning. This article reports on several studies carried out on the risk of handling, storage and transport of ammonia.

  1. Risk analysis and emergency management of ammonia installations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ham, J.M.; Gansevoort, J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Quantitative Risk Assessment has been increasing for evaluating the risk of handling hazardous materials and land-use planning. This article reports on several studies carried out on the risk of handling, storage and transport of ammonia.

  2. 岩体滑坡冲击能计算及受灾体易损性定量评估%IMPACT ENERGY CALCULATION FOR ROCK SLOPE AND QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY FOR ELEMENT AT RISK

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴越; 刘东升; 李明军

    2011-01-01

    In the processes of landslide mass sliding and impacting on element at risk, the internal collapse of landslide mass will dissipate part of kinetic energy. But in practice, this part of energy is not taken usually into account. The discrete element method(DEM) is adopted to get impact force-time curves; and the impact energy conversion equation is also deduced based on impulse law and energy conservation law. With the analysis of the energy dissipation principle in the sliding and impacting processes of a practical rock slope, a comparison is made between the calculation method which takes both internal and external energy dissipations into account and the method which only takes external energy dissipation into account. The result shows that there is a significant difference between the two methods; and the internal energy dissipation can not be ignored. Moreover, the influence factors of impact energy and vulnerability for element at risk are both analyzed. The analysis result shows that impact energy is most sensitive to internal friction angle of landslide debris; second sensitive to distance between element at risk and landslide mass, gap length between joint segments, density of landslide mass and width of impact surface; last sensitive to the cohesion of landslide mass. In addition, the impact direction of landslide debris can simulataneously effect both impact energy and anti-impact energy.%滑体下滑及对受灾体冲击过程中,由于滑体内部的崩解碰撞将会耗散部分动能,而工程中通常采用简化的方法计算滑体冲击能,没有考虑内部耗能的影响.采用离散元法模拟得到滑体对受灾体的冲击力-时间曲线,根据冲量定律和能量守恒定律换算得到滑体冲击能.以实际工程为例,详细分析滑体下滑过程与冲击受灾体过程中的能耗规律.结果表明:同时考虑下滑和冲击过程中滑体内外部耗能的计算方法与只考虑滑体外部摩擦耗能的计算方法相比,

  3. A quantitative assessment of the BSE risk associated with fly ash and slag from the incineration of meat-and-bone meal in a gas-fired power plant in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paisley, Larry G; Hostrup-Pedersen, Julie

    2005-05-10

    It has been recommended that meat-and-bone meal (MBM) be incinerated at 850 degrees C for at least 2s and the ashes and slag disposed of in controlled landfills, to dispose of animal-derived proteins. Most commonly, the MBM is incinerated in cement works or coal-fired power plants and the ashes and slag are incorporated into the cement or concrete. Our goal was to assess with a Monte Carlo simulation model the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) risk to cattle and humans posed by the ash and slag. The results will be used by decision makers to evaluate the need for disposal of the fly ash in controlled landfills and the feasibility of use of the ash by the phosphate and fertilizer industries. We assumed that all specified risk material (SRM) and MBM produced in Denmark would be incinerated in this gas-fired power plant. Based on observations in 2001, we assumed that, on average, six (range: 0-15) clinical BSE cases each year were rendered into MBM and incinerated. In addition, SRM or carcasses from 0 to 31 (median=10) BSE-infected-but-undetected animals/BSE case were also incinerated. The simulations were run on a 1-week basis. Our results suggest that if the slag is collected and re-incinerated the median BSE infectivity remaining in the fly ash per week would be 3.1E-11 cattle ID(50). A cattle ID50 is the amount of infectivity that will cause infection in 50% of cattle exposed to it. During the weeks when BSE was infected in the SRM-MBM, the median infectivity in the fly ash was estimated as 8.7E-10 cattle ID50 and 2.9E-12 human ID50. The 95th percentiles were 2.1E-08 cattle ID50 and 5.8E-10 human ID50, respectively. One ton of fly ash would contain

  4. Quantitative Techniques in Volumetric Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, John; Jacobsen, Jerrold J.

    1996-12-01

    Quantitative Techniques in Volumetric Analysis is a visual library of techniques used in making volumetric measurements. This 40-minute VHS videotape is designed as a resource for introducing students to proper volumetric methods and procedures. The entire tape, or relevant segments of the tape, can also be used to review procedures used in subsequent experiments that rely on the traditional art of quantitative analysis laboratory practice. The techniques included are: Quantitative transfer of a solid with a weighing spoon Quantitative transfer of a solid with a finger held weighing bottle Quantitative transfer of a solid with a paper strap held bottle Quantitative transfer of a solid with a spatula Examples of common quantitative weighing errors Quantitative transfer of a solid from dish to beaker to volumetric flask Quantitative transfer of a solid from dish to volumetric flask Volumetric transfer pipet A complete acid-base titration Hand technique variations The conventional view of contemporary quantitative chemical measurement tends to focus on instrumental systems, computers, and robotics. In this view, the analyst is relegated to placing standards and samples on a tray. A robotic arm delivers a sample to the analysis center, while a computer controls the analysis conditions and records the results. In spite of this, it is rare to find an analysis process that does not rely on some aspect of more traditional quantitative analysis techniques, such as careful dilution to the mark of a volumetric flask. Figure 2. Transfer of a solid with a spatula. Clearly, errors in a classical step will affect the quality of the final analysis. Because of this, it is still important for students to master the key elements of the traditional art of quantitative chemical analysis laboratory practice. Some aspects of chemical analysis, like careful rinsing to insure quantitative transfer, are often an automated part of an instrumental process that must be understood by the

  5. Quantitative goals for monetary policy

    OpenAIRE

    Fatás, Antonio; Mihov, Ilian; ROSE, Andrew K.

    2006-01-01

    We study empirically the macroeconomic effects of an explicit de jure quantitative goal for monetary policy. Quantitative goals take three forms: exchange rates, money growth rates, and inflation targets. We analyze the effects on inflation of both having a quantitative target, and of hitting a declared target; we also consider effects on output volatility. Our empirical work uses an annual data set covering 42 countries between 1960 and 2000, and takes account of other determinants of inflat...

  6. Quantitative Electron Nanodiffraction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spence, John [Arizona State Univ., Mesa, AZ (United States)

    2015-01-30

    This Final report summarizes progress under this award for the final reporting period 2002 - 2013 in our development of quantitive electron nanodiffraction to materials problems, especially devoted to atomistic processes in semiconductors and electronic oxides such as the new artificial oxide multilayers, where our microdiffraction is complemented with energy-loss spectroscopy (ELNES) and aberration-corrected STEM imaging (9). The method has also been used to map out the chemical bonds in the important GaN semiconductor (1) used for solid state lighting, and to understand the effects of stacking sequence variations and interfaces in digital oxide superlattices (8). Other projects include the development of a laser-beam Zernike phase plate for cryo-electron microscopy (5) (based on the Kapitza-Dirac effect), work on reconstruction of molecular images using the scattering from many identical molecules lying in random orientations (4), a review article on space-group determination for the International Tables on Crystallography (10), the observation of energy-loss spectra with millivolt energy resolution and sub-nanometer spatial resolution from individual point defects in an alkali halide, a review article for the Centenary of X-ray Diffration (17) and the development of a new method of electron-beam lithography (12). We briefly summarize here the work on GaN, on oxide superlattice ELNES, and on lithography by STEM.

  7. Programmable Quantitative DNA Nanothermometers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gareau, David; Desrosiers, Arnaud; Vallée-Bélisle, Alexis

    2016-07-13

    Developing molecules, switches, probes or nanomaterials that are able to respond to specific temperature changes should prove of utility for several applications in nanotechnology. Here, we describe bioinspired strategies to design DNA thermoswitches with programmable linear response ranges that can provide either a precise ultrasensitive response over a desired, small temperature interval (±0.05 °C) or an extended linear response over a wide temperature range (e.g., from 25 to 90 °C). Using structural modifications or inexpensive DNA stabilizers, we show that we can tune the transition midpoints of DNA thermometers from 30 to 85 °C. Using multimeric switch architectures, we are able to create ultrasensitive thermometers that display large quantitative fluorescence gains within small temperature variation (e.g., > 700% over 10 °C). Using a combination of thermoswitches of different stabilities or a mix of stabilizers of various strengths, we can create extended thermometers that respond linearly up to 50 °C in temperature range. Here, we demonstrate the reversibility, robustness, and efficiency of these programmable DNA thermometers by monitoring temperature change inside individual wells during polymerase chain reactions. We discuss the potential applications of these programmable DNA thermoswitches in various nanotechnology fields including cell imaging, nanofluidics, nanomedecine, nanoelectronics, nanomaterial, and synthetic biology.

  8. Quantitive DNA Fiber Mapping

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Chun-Mei; Wang, Mei; Greulich-Bode, Karin M.; Weier, Jingly F.; Weier, Heinz-Ulli G.

    2008-01-28

    Several hybridization-based methods used to delineate single copy or repeated DNA sequences in larger genomic intervals take advantage of the increased resolution and sensitivity of free chromatin, i.e., chromatin released from interphase cell nuclei. Quantitative DNA fiber mapping (QDFM) differs from the majority of these methods in that it applies FISH to purified, clonal DNA molecules which have been bound with at least one end to a solid substrate. The DNA molecules are then stretched by the action of a receding meniscus at the water-air interface resulting in DNA molecules stretched homogeneously to about 2.3 kb/{micro}m. When non-isotopically, multicolor-labeled probes are hybridized to these stretched DNA fibers, their respective binding sites are visualized in the fluorescence microscope, their relative distance can be measured and converted into kilobase pairs (kb). The QDFM technique has found useful applications ranging from the detection and delineation of deletions or overlap between linked clones to the construction of high-resolution physical maps to studies of stalled DNA replication and transcription.

  9. Quantitative Assessment of the IT Agile Transformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orłowski Cezary

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present the quantitative perspective of the agile transformation processes in IT organisations. The phenomenon of agile transformation becomes a