WorldWideScience

Sample records for quantitative risk assessment

  1. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  2. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  3. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  4. Quantitative risk assessment of CO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koornneef, J.; Spruijt, M.; Molag, M.; Ramírez, A.; Turkenburg, W.; Faaij, A.

    2010-01-01

    A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO2 pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperat

  5. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  6. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  7. A toolbox for rockfall Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agliardi, F.; Mavrouli, O.; Schubert, M.; Corominas, J.; Crosta, G. B.; Faber, M. H.; Frattini, P.; Narasimhan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Rockfall Quantitative Risk Analysis for mitigation design and implementation requires evaluating the probability of rockfall events, the probability and intensity of impacts on structures (elements at risk and countermeasures), their vulnerability, and the related expected costs for different scenarios. A sound theoretical framework has been developed during the last years both for spatially-distributed and local (i.e. single element at risk) analyses. Nevertheless, the practical application of existing methodologies remains challenging, due to difficulties in the collection of required data and to the lack of simple, dedicated analysis tools. In order to fill this gap, specific tools have been developed in the form of Excel spreadsheets, in the framework of Safeland EU project. These tools can be used by stakeholders, practitioners and other interested parties for the quantitative calculation of rock fall risk through its key components (probabilities, vulnerability, loss), using combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Three tools have been developed, namely: QuRAR (by UNIMIB), VulBlock (by UPC), and RiskNow-Falling Rocks (by ETH Zurich). QuRAR implements a spatially distributed, quantitative assessment methodology of rockfall risk for individual buildings or structures in a multi-building context (urban area). Risk is calculated in terms of expected annual cost, through the evaluation of rockfall event probability, propagation and impact probability (by 3D numerical modelling of rockfall trajectories), and empirical vulnerability for different risk protection scenarios. Vulblock allows a detailed, analytical calculation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame buildings to rockfalls and related fragility curves, both as functions of block velocity and the size. The calculated vulnerability can be integrated in other methodologies/procedures based on the risk equation, by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock

  8. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David;

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... on three fragrance ingredients in order to provide a practical assessment of the predictive value of the QRA approach. It is important to have data to assess that the methodology provides a robust approach for primary prevention of contact sensitization induction for fragrance ingredients identified...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  9. Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under consideration by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.

  10. The use of quantitative risk assessment in HACCP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoornstra, E.; Northolt, M.D.; Notermans, S.; Barendsz, A.W.

    2001-01-01

    During the hazard analysis as part of the development of a HACCP-system, first the hazards (contaminants) have to be identified and then the risks have to be assessed. Often, this assessment is restricted to a qualitative analysis. By using elements of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) the hazard a

  11. A comparison of risk assessment techniques from qualitative to quantitative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Altenbach, T.J.

    1995-02-13

    Risk assessment techniques vary from purely qualitative approaches, through a regime of semi-qualitative to the more traditional quantitative. Constraints such as time, money, manpower, skills, management perceptions, risk result communication to the public, and political pressures all affect the manner in which risk assessments are carried out. This paper surveys some risk matrix techniques, examining the uses and applicability for each. Limitations and problems for each technique are presented and compared to the others. Risk matrix approaches vary from purely qualitative axis descriptions of accident frequency vs consequences, to fully quantitative axis definitions using multi-attribute utility theory to equate different types of risk from the same operation.

  12. Contract farming risks: A quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arkins M Kabungo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to identify the key risks facing each of the stakeholders in the export-focused paprika value chain in Zambia. Although a deterministic cost-benefit analysis indicated that this outgrower scheme would have a very satisfactory net present value (NPV, a Monte Carlo analysis using an integrated financial–economic–stakeholder model identifies a number of risk variables that could make this system unsustainable. The major risks include the variability of the real exchange rate in Zambia; the international price of paprika; and the farm yield rates. This analysis points out that irrigation systems are very important for both stabilising and increasing yields. The analysis also shows the limitations of loan financing for such outgrower arrangements when at the sector level it is difficult or even impossible to mitigate the risks from real exchange rate movements and changes in international commodity prices. This micro-level analysis shows how critical real exchange rate management policies are in achieving sustainability of such export-oriented value chains.

  13. Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Q L; Barker, G C; Gorris, L G M; Tian, M S; Song, X Y; Malakar, P K

    2015-03-01

    Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, effectiveness of microbial risk assessment utility for risk management decision making, and application of QMRA to establish appropriate Food Safety Objectives.

  14. Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Q. L.; Barker, G. C.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Tian, M.S.; Song, X. Y.; Malakar, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, eff...

  15. Integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in a health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adám, Balázs; Molnár, Agnes; Gulis, Gabriel;

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in an ...... a practical example of applying quantification in an HIA, thereby promoting its incorporation into political decision making.......BACKGROUND: Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal...

  16. Modeling Logistic Performance in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijgersberg, H.; Tromp, S.O.; Jacxsens, L.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage ti

  17. Students perceiving risk: a quantitative assessment on three South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Students perceiving risk: a quantitative assessment on three South African ... The project originated in qualitative research conducted over two years (2008- 2009) ... Cet article documente le risque perçu par les étudiants dans trois universités ...

  18. Quantitative risk assessment methods for cancer and noncancer effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Ronald E

    2012-01-01

    Human health risk assessments have evolved from the more qualitative approaches to more quantitative approaches in the past decade. This has been facilitated by the improvement in computer hardware and software capability and novel computational approaches being slowly recognized by regulatory agencies. These events have helped reduce the reliance on experimental animals as well as better utilization of published animal toxicology data in deriving quantitative toxicity indices that may be useful for risk management purposes. This chapter briefly describes some of the approaches as described in the guidance documents from several of the regulatory agencies as it pertains to hazard identification and dose-response assessment of a chemical. These approaches are contrasted with more novel computational approaches that provide a better grasp of the uncertainty often associated with chemical risk assessments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. [Quantitative method of representative contaminants in groundwater pollution risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun-Jie; He, Jiang-Tao; Lu, Yan; Liu, Li-Ya; Zhang, Xiao-Liang

    2012-03-01

    In the light of the problem that stress vulnerability assessment in groundwater pollution risk assessment is lack of an effective quantitative system, a new system was proposed based on representative contaminants and corresponding emission quantities through the analysis of groundwater pollution sources. And quantitative method of the representative contaminants in this system was established by analyzing the three properties of representative contaminants and determining the research emphasis using analytic hierarchy process. The method had been applied to the assessment of Beijing groundwater pollution risk. The results demonstrated that the representative contaminants hazards greatly depended on different research emphasizes. There were also differences between the sequence of three representative contaminants hazards and their corresponding properties. It suggested that subjective tendency of the research emphasis had a decisive impact on calculation results. In addition, by the means of sequence to normalize the three properties and to unify the quantified properties results would zoom in or out of the relative properties characteristic of different representative contaminants.

  20. New developments in quantitative risk assessment of campylobacteriosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havelaar, Arie; Nauta, Maarten

    the formulation of quantitative criteria for broilers and other meats. New modelling methods (e.g. Bayesian approaches) are being proposed, but are currently less detailed than conventional Monte Carlo simulation models. There is considerable uncertainty in dose-response relationships and in particular, current......Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is now broadly accepted as an important decision support tool in food safety risk management. It has been used to support decision making at the global level (Codex Alimentarius, FAO and WHO), at the European level (European Food Safety Authority...... go undetected after on-farm monitoring. Processing models indicate that defeathering and evisceration are key processes leading to carcass contamination, but there is still considerable uncertainty of the quantitative effects of these processes. In the kitchen, cross-contamination from contaminated...

  1. Quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitization: Success or failure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimber, Ian; Gerberick, G Frank; Basketter, David A

    2017-02-01

    Skin sensitization is unique in the world of toxicology. There is a combination of reliable, validated predictive test methods for identification of skin sensitizing chemicals, a clearly documented and transparent approach to risk assessment, and effective feedback from dermatology clinics around the world delivering evidence of the success or failure of the hazard identification/risk assessment/management process. Recent epidemics of contact allergy, particularly to preservatives, have raised questions of whether the safety/risk assessment process is working in an optimal manner (or indeed is working at all!). This review has as its focus skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The core toxicological principles of QRA are reviewed, and evidence of use and misuse examined. What becomes clear is that skin sensitization QRA will only function adequately if two essential criteria are met. The first is that QRA is applied rigourously, and the second is that potential exposure to the sensitizing substance is assessed adequately. This conclusion will come as no surprise to any toxicologist who appreciates the basic premise that "risk = hazard x exposure". Accordingly, use of skin sensitization QRA is encouraged, not least because the essential feedback from dermatology clinics can be used as a tool to refine QRA in situations where this risk assessment tool has not been properly used.

  2. Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

    2012-04-01

    Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central

  3. New developments in quantitative risk assessment of campylobacteriosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havelaar, Arie; Nauta, Maarten

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is now broadly accepted as an important decision support tool in food safety risk management. It has been used to support decision making at the global level (Codex Alimentarius, FAO and WHO), at the European level (European Food Safety Authority...... go undetected after on-farm monitoring. Processing models indicate that defeathering and evisceration are key processes leading to carcass contamination, but there is still considerable uncertainty of the quantitative effects of these processes. In the kitchen, cross-contamination from contaminated...... meat to ready-to-eat foods is the main pathway of consumer exposure. Undercooking appears to be of minor importance. However, this conclusion may need to be reconsidered in the light of increasing consumption of minced meat preparations. Five QMRA models have been compared in detail, and detailed...

  4. Quantitative Security Risk Assessment and Management for Railway Transportation Infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flammini, Francesco; Gaglione, Andrea; Mazzocca, Nicola; Pragliola, Concetta

    Scientists have been long investigating procedures, models and tools for the risk analysis in several domains, from economics to computer networks. This paper presents a quantitative method and a tool for the security risk assessment and management specifically tailored to the context of railway transportation systems, which are exposed to threats ranging from vandalism to terrorism. The method is based on a reference mathematical model and it is supported by a specifically developed tool. The tool allows for the management of data, including attributes of attack scenarios and effectiveness of protection mechanisms, and the computation of results, including risk and cost/benefit indices. The main focus is on the design of physical protection systems, but the analysis can be extended to logical threats as well. The cost/benefit analysis allows for the evaluation of the return on investment, which is a nowadays important issue to be addressed by risk analysts.

  5. Quantitative risk assessment modeling for nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Qu, Xiaobo; Wang, Xinchang; Yuanita, Vivi; Wong, Siew Chee

    2011-03-01

    Urban road tunnels provide an increasingly cost-effective engineering solution, especially in compact cities like Singapore. For some urban road tunnels, tunnel characteristics such as tunnel configurations, geometries, provisions of tunnel electrical and mechanical systems, traffic volumes, etc. may vary from one section to another. These urban road tunnels that have characterized nonuniform parameters are referred to as nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels. In this study, a novel quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model is proposed for nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels because the existing QRA models for road tunnels are inapplicable to assess the risks in these road tunnels. This model uses a tunnel segmentation principle whereby a nonhomogeneous urban road tunnel is divided into various homogenous sections. Individual risk for road tunnel sections as well as the integrated risk indices for the entire road tunnel is defined. The article then proceeds to develop a new QRA model for each of the homogeneous sections. Compared to the existing QRA models for road tunnels, this section-based model incorporates one additional top event-toxic gases due to traffic congestion-and employs the Poisson regression method to estimate the vehicle accident frequencies of tunnel sections. This article further illustrates an aggregated QRA model for nonhomogeneous urban tunnels by integrating the section-based QRA models. Finally, a case study in Singapore is carried out.

  6. Modeling logistic performance in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijgersberg, Hajo; Tromp, Seth; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage times, temperatures, gas conditions, and their distributions) are determined. However, the logistic chain with its queues (storages, shelves) and mechanisms for ordering products is usually not taken into account. As a consequence, storage times-mutually dependent in successive steps in the chain-cannot be described adequately. This may have a great impact on the tails of risk distributions. Because food safety risks are generally very small, it is crucial to model the tails of (underlying) distributions as accurately as possible. Logistic performance can be modeled by describing the underlying planning and scheduling mechanisms in discrete-event modeling. This is common practice in operations research, specifically in supply chain management. In this article, we present the application of discrete-event modeling in the context of a QMRA for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh-cut iceberg lettuce. We show the potential value of discrete-event modeling in QMRA by calculating logistic interventions (modifications in the logistic chain) and determining their significance with respect to food safety.

  7. Quantitative risk assessment for a glass fiber insulation product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayerweather, W E; Bender, J R; Hadley, J G; Eastes, W

    1997-04-01

    California Proposition 65 (Prop65) provides a mechanism by which the manufacturer may perform a quantitative risk assessment to be used in determining the need for cancer warning labels. This paper presents a risk assessment under this regulation for professional and do-it-yourself insulation installers. It determines the level of insulation glass fiber exposure (specifically Owens Corning's R-25 PinkPlus with Miraflex) that, assuming a working lifetime exposure, poses no significant cancer risk under Prop65's regulations. "No significant risk" is defined under Prop65 as a lifetime risk of no more than one additional cancer case per 100,000 exposed persons, and nonsignificant exposure is defined as a working lifetime exposure associated with "no significant risk." This determination can be carried out despite the fact that the relevant underlying studies (i.e., chronic inhalation bioassays) of comparable glass wool fibers do not show tumorigenic activity. Nonsignificant exposures are estimated from (1) the most recent RCC chronic inhalation bioassay of nondurable fiberglass in rats; (2) intraperitoneal fiberglass injection studies in rats; (3) a distributional, decision analysis approach applied to four chronic inhalation rat bioassays of conventional fiberglass; (4) an extrapolation from the RCC chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable refractory ceramic fibers; and (5) an extrapolation from the IOM chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable E glass microfibers. When the EPA linear nonthreshold model is used, central estimates of nonsignificant exposure range from 0.36 fibers/cc (for the RCC chronic inhalation bioassay of fiberglass) through 21 fibers/cc (for the i.p. fiberglass injection studies). Lower 95% confidence bounds on these estimates vary from 0.17 fibers/cc through 13 fibers/cc. Estimates derived from the distributional approach or from applying the EPA linear nonthreshold model to chronic bioassays of durable fibers such as refractory ceramic fiber

  8. Is there a place for quantitative risk assessment?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, Eric J [Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY (United States)

    2009-06-01

    The use of ionising radiations is so well established, especially in the practice of medicine, that it is impossible to imagine contemporary life without them. At the same time, ionising radiations are a known and proven human carcinogen. Exposure to radiation in some contexts elicits fear and alarm (nuclear power for example) while in other situations, until recently at least, it was accepted with alacrity (diagnostic x-rays for example). This non-uniform reaction to the potential hazards of radiation highlights the importance of quantitative risk estimates, which are necessary to help put things into perspective. Three areas will be discussed where quantitative risk estimates are needed and where uncertainties and limitations are a problem. First, the question of diagnostic x-rays. CT usage over the past quarter of a century has increased about 12 fold in the UK and more than 20 fold in the US. In both countries, more than 90% of the collective population dose from diagnostic x-rays comes from the few high dose procedures, such as interventional radiology, CT scans, lumbar spine x-rays and barium enemas. These all involve doses close to the lower limit at which there are credible epidemiological data for an excess cancer incidence. This is a critical question; what is the lowest dose at which there is good evidence of an elevated cancer incidence? Without low dose risk estimates the risk-benefit ratio of diagnostic procedures cannot be assessed. Second, the use of new techniques in radiation oncology. IMRT is widely used to obtain a more conformal dose distribution, particularly in children. It results in a larger total body dose, due to an increased number of monitor units and to the application of more radiation fields. The Linacs used today were not designed for IMRT and are based on leakage standards that were decided decades ago. It will be difficult and costly to reduce leakage from treatment machines, and a necessary first step is to refine the available

  9. Dermal sensitization quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Api, Anne Marie; Basketter, David A; Cadby, Peter A; Cano, Marie-France; Ellis, Graham; Gerberick, G Frank; Griem, Peter; McNamee, Pauline M; Ryan, Cindy A; Safford, Robert

    2008-10-01

    Based on chemical, cellular, and molecular understanding of dermal sensitization, an exposure-based quantitative risk assessment (QRA) can be conducted to determine safe use levels of fragrance ingredients in different consumer product types. The key steps are: (1) determination of benchmarks (no expected sensitization induction level (NESIL)); (2) application of sensitization assessment factors (SAF); and (3) consumer exposure (CEL) calculation through product use. Using these parameters, an acceptable exposure level (AEL) can be calculated and compared with the CEL. The ratio of AEL to CEL must be favorable to support safe use of the potential skin sensitizer. This ratio must be calculated for the fragrance ingredient in each product type. Based on the Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Inc. (RIFM) Expert Panel's recommendation, RIFM and the International Fragrance Association (IFRA) have adopted the dermal sensitization QRA approach described in this review for fragrance ingredients identified as potential dermal sensitizers. This now forms the fragrance industry's core strategy for primary prevention of dermal sensitization to these materials in consumer products. This methodology is used to determine global fragrance industry product management practices (IFRA Standards) for fragrance ingredients that are potential dermal sensitizers. This paper describes the principles of the recommended approach, provides detailed review of all the information used in the dermal sensitization QRA approach for fragrance ingredients and presents key conclusions for its use now and refinement in the future.

  10. Stepwise quantitative risk assessment as a tool for characterization of microbiological food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerwen, van S.J.C.; Giffel, te M.C.; Riet, van 't K.; Beumer, R.R.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes a system for the microbiological quantitative risk assessment for food products and their production processes. The system applies a stepwise risk assessment, allowing the main problems to be addressed before focusing on less important problems. First, risks are assessed broadly

  11. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph......D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes...... of variations in the data. Essential limiting factors of urban flooding QMRAs were identified as uncertainty regarding ingestion volumes, the limited use of dose-response models and low numbers of microbial parameters measurements and absent validation of the risk assessments. Because improving knowledge...

  12. The Application of the Semi-quantitative Risk Assessment Method to Urban Natural Gas Pipelines

    OpenAIRE

    Bai, Yongqiang; LiangHai LV; Wang, Tong

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides a method of semi-quantitative risk assessment for urban gas pipelines, by modifying Kent analysis method. The influence factors of fault frequency and consequence for urban gas pipelines are analyzed, and the grade rules are studied on. The grade rules of fault frequency and consequence for urban natural gas pipelines are provided. Using semi-quantitative risk matrix, the risk grade of the urban gas pipelines is obtained, and the risk primary sort for gas pipel...

  13. Quantitative breast MRI radiomics for cancer risk assessment and the monitoring of high-risk populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendel, Kayla R.; Li, Hui; Giger, Maryellen L.

    2016-03-01

    Breast density is routinely assessed qualitatively in screening mammography. However, it is challenging to quantitatively determine a 3D density from a 2D image such as a mammogram. Furthermore, dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) is used more frequently in the screening of high-risk populations. The purpose of our study is to segment parenchyma and to quantitatively determine volumetric breast density on pre-contrast axial DCE-MRI images (i.e., non-contrast) using a semi-automated quantitative approach. In this study, we retroactively examined 3D DCE-MRI images taken for breast cancer screening of a high-risk population. We analyzed 66 cases with ages between 28 and 76 (mean 48.8, standard deviation 10.8). DCE-MRIs were obtained on a Philips 3.0 T scanner. Our semi-automated DCE-MRI algorithm includes: (a) segmentation of breast tissue from non-breast tissue using fuzzy cmeans clustering (b) separation of dense and fatty tissues using Otsu's method, and (c) calculation of volumetric density as the ratio of dense voxels to total breast voxels. We examined the relationship between pre-contrast DCE-MRI density and clinical BI-RADS density obtained from radiology reports, and obtained a statistically significant correlation [Spearman ρ-value of 0.66 (p < 0.0001)]. Our method within precision medicine may be useful for monitoring high-risk populations.

  14. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and human health effect...

  15. Stepwise quantitative risk assessment as a tool for characterization of microbiological food safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gerwen, S J; te Giffel, M C; van't Riet, K; Beumer, R R; Zwietering, M H

    2000-06-01

    This paper describes a system for the microbiological quantitative risk assessment for food products and their production processes. The system applies a stepwise risk assessment, allowing the main problems to be addressed before focusing on less important problems. First, risks are assessed broadly, using order of magnitude estimates. Characteristic numbers are used to quantitatively characterize microbial behaviour during the production process. These numbers help to highlight the major risk-determining phenomena, and to find negligible aspects. Second, the risk-determining phenomena are studied in more detail. Both general and/or specific models can be used for this and varying situations can be simulated to quantitatively describe the risk-determining phenomena. Third, even more detailed studies can be performed where necessary, for instance by using stochastic variables. The system for quantitative risk assessment has been implemented as a decision supporting expert system called SIEFE: Stepwise and Interactive Evaluation of Food safety by an Expert System. SIEFE performs bacterial risk assessments in a structured manner, using various information sources. Because all steps are transparent, every step can easily be scrutinized. In the current study the effectiveness of SIEFE is shown for a cheese spread. With this product, quantitative data concerning the major risk-determining factors were not completely available to carry out a full detailed assessment. However, this did not necessarily hamper adequate risk estimation. Using ranges of values instead helped identifying the quantitatively most important parameters and the magnitude of their impact. This example shows that SIEFE provides quantitative insights into production processes and their risk-determining factors to both risk assessors and decision makers, and highlights critical gaps in knowledge.

  16. An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

  17. A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Snary, Emma L.; Swart, Arno N.; Simons, Robin R. L.

    2016-01-01

    A farm‐to‐consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter‐pig prevalence and the imp......A farm‐to‐consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter‐pig prevalence...

  18. A comprehensive quantitative assessment of bird extinction risk in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathália Machado

    Full Text Available In an effort to avoid species loss, scientists have focused their efforts on the mechanisms making some species more prone to extinction than others. However, species show different responses to threats given their evolutionary history, behavior, and intrinsic biological features. We used bird biological features and external threats to (1 understand the multiple pathways driving Brazilian bird species to extinction, (2 to investigate if and how extinction risk is geographically structured, and (3 to quantify how much diversity is currently represented inside protected areas. We modeled the extinction risk of 1557 birds using classification trees and evaluated the relative contribution of each biological feature and external threat in predicting extinction risk. We also quantified the proportion of species and their geographic range currently protected by the network of Brazilian protected areas. The optimal classification tree showed different pathways to bird extinction. Habitat conversion was the most important predictor driving extinction risk though other variables, such as geographic range size, type of habitat, hunting or trapping and trophic guild, were also relevant in our models. Species under higher extinction risk were concentrated mainly in the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot and were not quite represented inside protected areas, neither in richness nor range. Predictive models could assist conservation actions, and this study could contribute by highlighting the importance of natural history and ecology in these actions.

  19. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  20. A quantitative risk assessment for bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Japan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kadohira, M.; Stevenson, M.A.; Hogasen, H.R.; Koeijer, de A.A.

    2012-01-01

    A predictive case-cohort model was applied to Japanese data to analyze the interaction between challenge and stability factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) for the period 1985–2020. BSE risk in cattle was estimated as the expected number of detectable cases per year. The model was comp

  1. A Comprehensive Quantitative Assessment of Bird Extinction Risk in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Nathália Machado; Rafael Dias Loyola

    2013-01-01

    In an effort to avoid species loss, scientists have focused their efforts on the mechanisms making some species more prone to extinction than others. However, species show different responses to threats given their evolutionary history, behavior, and intrinsic biological features. We used bird biological features and external threats to (1) understand the multiple pathways driving Brazilian bird species to extinction, (2) to investigate if and how extinction risk is geographically structured,...

  2. Quantitative Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-24

    program risk evaluation frameworks and criteria set out, in formal documentation, for proposal and contact execution evaluation as determined by the PMO ...phase until late December 2015. During this time there was turnover in the PMO . We decided that we needed to reaffirm the collaboration agreement...pertinent to developing RLI. We reviewed prior analyses of root causes of adverse program outcome. We identified Program Management Office ( PMO ) risk

  3. Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Pepijn; Tamis, Jacqueline E; Foekema, Edwin M; Klok, Chris; Murk, Albertinka J

    2013-08-30

    The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO2 levels and related considerations of geological CO2 storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO2 levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO2 levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO2 levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Sensitivity analysis of a two-dimensional quantitative microbiological risk assessment: keeping variability and uncertainty separated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busschaert, Pieter; Geeraerd, Annemie H; Uyttendaele, Mieke; Van Impe, Jan F

    2011-08-01

    The aim of quantitative microbiological risk assessment is to estimate the risk of illness caused by the presence of a pathogen in a food type, and to study the impact of interventions. Because of inherent variability and uncertainty, risk assessments are generally conducted stochastically, and if possible it is advised to characterize variability separately from uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis allows to indicate to which of the input variables the outcome of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment is most sensitive. Although a number of methods exist to apply sensitivity analysis to a risk assessment with probabilistic input variables (such as contamination, storage temperature, storage duration, etc.), it is challenging to perform sensitivity analysis in the case where a risk assessment includes a separate characterization of variability and uncertainty of input variables. A procedure is proposed that focuses on the relation between risk estimates obtained by Monte Carlo simulation and the location of pseudo-randomly sampled input variables within the uncertainty and variability distributions. Within this procedure, two methods are used-that is, an ANOVA-like model and Sobol sensitivity indices-to obtain and compare the impact of variability and of uncertainty of all input variables, and of model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. As a case study, this methodology is applied to a risk assessment to estimate the risk of contracting listeriosis due to consumption of deli meats.

  5. Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Petrova, E.

    2006-01-01

    International audience; One of the important tracks leading to natural risk prevention, disaster mitigation or the reduction of losses due to natural hazards is the vulnerability assessment of an "at-risk" region. The majority of researchers propose to assess vulnerability according to an expert evaluation of several qualitative characteristics, scoring each of them usually using three ratings: low, average, and high. Unlike these investigations, we attempted a quantitative vulnerability asse...

  6. Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

    2011-05-15

    In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment.

  7. A quantitative microbiological risk assessment for Campylobacter in petting zoos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Eric G; Berk, Petra A; Horneman, Mijke L; van Leusden, Frans M; de Jonge, Rob

    2014-09-01

    The significance of petting zoos for transmission of Campylobacter to humans and the effect of interventions were estimated. A stochastic QMRA model simulating a child or adult visiting a Dutch petting zoo was built. The model describes the transmission of Campylobacter in animal feces from the various animal species, fences, and the playground to ingestion by visitors through touching these so-called carriers and subsequently touching their lips. Extensive field and laboratory research was done to fulfill data needs. Fecal contamination on all carriers was measured by swabbing in 10 petting zoos, using Escherichia coli as an indicator. Carrier-hand and hand-lip touching frequencies were estimated by, in total, 13 days of observations of visitors by two observers at two petting zoos. The transmission from carrier to hand and from hand to lip by touching was measured using preapplied cow feces to which E. coli WG5 was added as an indicator. Via a Beta-Poisson dose-response function, the number of Campylobacter cases for the whole of the Netherlands (16 million population) in a year was estimated at 187 and 52 for children and adults, respectively, so 239 in total. This is significantly lower than previous QMRA results on chicken fillet and drinking water consumption. Scenarios of 90% reduction of the contamination (meant to mimic cleaning) of all fences and just goat fences reduces the number of cases by 82% and 75%, respectively. The model can easily be adapted for other fecally transmitted pathogens. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Preparing for the unprecedented - Towards quantitative oil risk assessment in the Arctic marine areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevalainen, Maisa; Helle, Inari; Vanhatalo, Jarno

    2017-01-15

    The probability of major oil accidents in Arctic seas is increasing alongside with increasing maritime traffic. Hence, there is a growing need to understand the risks posed by oil spills to these unique and sensitive areas. So far these risks have mainly been acknowledged in terms of qualitative descriptions. We introduce a probabilistic framework, based on a general food web approach, to analyze ecological impacts of oil spills. We argue that the food web approach based on key functional groups is more appropriate for providing holistic view of the involved risks than assessments based on single species. We discuss the issues characteristic to the Arctic that need a special attention in risk assessment, and provide examples how to proceed towards quantitative risk estimates. The conceptual model presented in the paper helps to identify the most important risk factors and can be used as a template for more detailed risk assessments. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Quantitative Risk - Phases 1 & 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-12

    quantitative risk characterization”, " Risk characterization of microbiological hazards in food ", Chapter 4, 2009 314...State University, July 9, 2013 213. Albert I, Grenier E, Denis JB, Rousseau J., “ Quantitative Risk Assessment from Farm to Fork and Beyond: a...MELHEM, G., “Conduct Effective Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Studies”, ioMosaic Corporation, 2006 233. Anderson, J., Brown, R., “ Risk

  10. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of antibacterial hand hygiene products on risk of shigellosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffner, Donald W; Bowman, James P; English, Donald J; Fischler, George E; Fuls, Janice L; Krowka, John F; Kruszewski, Francis H

    2014-04-01

    There are conflicting reports on whether antibacterial hand hygiene products are more effective than nonantibacterial products in reducing bacteria on hands and preventing disease. This research used new laboratory data, together with simulation techniques, to compare the ability of nonantibacterial and antibacterial products to reduce shigellosis risk. One hundred sixtythree subjects were used to compare five different hand treatments: two nonantibacterial products and three antibacterial products, i.e., 0.46% triclosan, 4% chlorhexidine gluconate, or 62% ethyl alcohol. Hands were inoculated with 5.5 to 6 log CFU Shigella; the simulated food handlers then washed their hands with one of the five products before handling melon balls. Each simulation scenario represented an event in which 100 people would be exposed to Shigella from melon balls that had been handled by food workers with Shigella on their hands. Analysis of experimental data showed that the two nonantibacterial treatments produced about a 2-log reduction on hands. The three antibacterial treatments showed log reductions greater than 3 but less than 4 on hands. All three antibacterial treatments resulted in statistically significantly lower concentration on the melon balls relative to the nonantibacterial treatments. A simulation that assumed 1 million Shigella bacteria on the hands and the use of a nonantibacterial treatment predicted that 50 to 60 cases of shigellosis would result (of 100 exposed). Each of the antibacterial treatments was predicted to result in an appreciable number of simulations for which the number of illness cases would be 0, with the most common number of illness cases being 5 (of 100 exposed). These effects maintained statistical significance from 10(6) Shigella per hand down to as low as 100 Shigella per hand, with some evidence to support lower levels. This quantitative microbial risk assessment shows that antibacterial hand treatments can significantly reduce Shigella risk.

  11. Quantitative approaches for health risk assessment of environmental pollutants : estimation of differences in sensitivity, relative potencies, and margins of exposure

    OpenAIRE

    Kalantari, Fereshteh

    2012-01-01

    Historically, quantitative health risk assessment of chemical substances is based on deterministic approaches. For a more realistic and informative health risk assessment, however, the variability and uncertainty inherent in measurements should be taken into consideration. The variability and uncertainty may be assessed by applying probabilistic methods when performing dose-response assessment, exposure assessment and risk characterization. The benchmark dose (BMD) method has b...

  12. 78 FR 9701 - Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-11

    ... Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Listeriosis From Soft-Ripened Cheese Consumption in the United States... Canada--Sant Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Listeriosis From Soft-Ripened Cheese... overall risk of invasive listeriosis to the consumer in the United States or Canada of soft-...

  13. The value of quantitative patient preferences in regulatory benefit-risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Egbrink, Mart; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative patient preferences are a method to involve patients in regulatory benefit-risk assessment. Assuming preferences can be elicited, there might be multiple advantages to their use. Legal, methodological and procedural issues do however imply that preferences are currently at most part of

  14. Quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitisation : Consideration of a simplified approach for hair dye ingredients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goebel, C.; Diepgen, T.L.; Krasteva, M.; Schlatter, H.; Nicolas, J.F.; Blomeke, B.; Coenraads, P.J.; Schnuch, A.; Taylor, J.S.; Pungier, J.; Fautz, R.; Fuchs, A.; Schuh, W.; Gerberick, G.F.; Kimber, I.

    2012-01-01

    With the availability of the local lymph node assay, and the ability to evaluate effectively the relative skin sensitizing potency of contact allergens, a model for quantitative-risk-assessment (QRA) has been developed. This QRA process comprises: (a) determination of a no-expected-sensitisation-ind

  15. Sugar concentration in nectar: a quantitative metric of crop attractiveness for refined pollinator risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knopper, Loren D; Dan, Tereza; Reisig, Dominic D; Johnson, Josephine D; Bowers, Lisa M

    2016-10-01

    Those involved with pollinator risk assessment know that agricultural crops vary in attractiveness to bees. Intuitively, this means that exposure to agricultural pesticides is likely greatest for attractive plants and lowest for unattractive plants. While crop attractiveness in the risk assessment process has been qualitatively remarked on by some authorities, absent is direction on how to refine the process with quantitative metrics of attractiveness. At a high level, attractiveness of crops to bees appears to depend on several key variables, including but not limited to: floral, olfactory, visual and tactile cues; seasonal availability; physical and behavioral characteristics of the bee; plant and nectar rewards. Notwithstanding the complexities and interactions among these variables, sugar content in nectar stands out as a suitable quantitative metric by which to refine pollinator risk assessments for attractiveness. Provided herein is a proposed way to use sugar nectar concentration to adjust the exposure parameter (with what is called a crop attractiveness factor) in the calculation of risk quotients in order to derive crop-specific tier I assessments. This Perspective is meant to invite discussion on incorporating such changes in the risk assessment process. © 2016 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

  16. Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

    2016-05-01

    Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the

  17. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2016-11-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  18. Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenquist, Hanne; Nielsen, N. L.; Sommer, Helle Mølgaard

    2003-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment comprising the elements hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization has been prepared to assess the effect of different mitigation strategies on the number of human cases in Denmark associated with thermophilic...... covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules...... Campylobacter spp. in chickens. To estimate the human exposure to Campylobacter from a chicken meal and the number of human cases associated with this exposure, a mathematical risk model was developed. The model details the spread and transfer of Campylobacter in chickens from slaughter to consumption...

  19. Quantitative risk assessment for human salmonellosis through the consumption of pork sausage in Porto Alegre, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mürmann, Lisandra; Corbellini, Luis Gustavo; Collor, Alexandre Ávila; Cardoso, Marisa

    2011-04-01

    A quantitative microbiology risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the risk of Salmonella infection to consumers of fresh pork sausages prepared at barbecues in Porto Alegre, Brazil. For the analysis, a prevalence of 24.4% positive pork sausages with a level of contamination between 0.03 and 460 CFU g(-1) was assumed. Data related to frequency and habits of consumption were obtained by a questionnaire survey given to 424 people. A second-order Monte Carlo simulation separating the uncertain parameter of cooking time from the variable parameters was run. Of the people interviewed, 87.5% consumed pork sausage, and 85.4% ate it at barbecues. The average risk of salmonellosis per barbecue at a minimum cooking time of 15.6 min (worst-case scenario) was 6.24 × 10(-4), and the risk assessed per month was 1.61 × 10(-3). Cooking for 19 min would fully inactivate Salmonella in 99.9% of the cases. At this cooking time, the sausage reached a mean internal temperature of 75.7°C. The results of the quantitative microbiology risk assessment revealed that the consumption of fresh pork sausage is safe when cooking time is approximately 19 min, whereas undercooked pork sausage may represent a nonnegligible health risk for consumers.

  20. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Staphylococcus aureus in natural and processed cheese in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Heeyoung; Kim, Kyunga; Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Yoon, Yohan

    2015-09-01

    This study quantitatively assessed the microbial risk of Staphylococcus aureus in cheese in Korea. The quantitative microbial risk assessment was carried out for natural and processed cheese from factory to consumption. Hazards for S. aureus in cheese were identified through the literature. For exposure assessment, the levels of S. aureus contamination in cheeses were evaluated, and the growth of S. aureus was predicted by predictive models at the surveyed temperatures, and at the time of cheese processing and distribution. For hazard characterization, a dose-response model for S. aureus was found, and the model was used to estimate the risk of illness. With these data, simulation models were prepared with @RISK (Palisade Corp., Ithaca, NY) to estimate the risk of illness per person per day in risk characterization. Staphylococcus aureus cell counts on cheese samples from factories and markets were below detection limits (0.30-0.45 log cfu/g), and pert distribution showed that the mean temperature at markets was 6.63°C. Exponential model [P=1 - exp(7.64×10(-8) × N), where N=dose] for dose-response was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Mean temperature of home storage was 4.02°C (log-logistic distribution). The results of risk characterization for S. aureus in natural and processed cheese showed that the mean values for the probability of illness per person per day were higher in processed cheese (mean: 2.24×10(-9); maximum: 7.97×10(-6)) than in natural cheese (mean: 7.84×10(-10); maximum: 2.32×10(-6)). These results indicate that the risk of S. aureus-related foodborne illness due to cheese consumption can be considered low under the present conditions in Korea. In addition, the developed stochastic risk assessment model in this study can be useful in establishing microbial criteria for S. aureus in cheese.

  1. Quantitative assessment of the risk of introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus in Danish dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foddai, Alessandro; Boklund, Anette; Stockmarr, Anders

    2014-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment was carried out to estimate the likelihood of introduc-ing bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in Danish dairy herds per year and per trimester,respectively. The present study gives important information on the impact of risk mitiga-tion measures and sources of uncer......A quantitative risk assessment was carried out to estimate the likelihood of introduc-ing bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in Danish dairy herds per year and per trimester,respectively. The present study gives important information on the impact of risk mitiga-tion measures and sources...... of uncertainty due to lack of data. As suggested in the Agreementon the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement), the OIE Ter-restrial Animal Health Code was followed for a transparent science-based risk assessment.Data from 2010 on imports of live cattle, semen, and embryos, exports...... of live cattle, aswell as use of vaccines were analyzed. Information regarding the application of biosecuritymeasures, by veterinarians and hoof trimmers practicing in Denmark and in other countries,was obtained by contacting several stakeholders, public institutions and experts. Stochas-tic scenario...

  2. Evaluating variability and uncertainty separately in microbial quantitative risk assessment using two R packages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Delignette-Muller, Marie Laure

    2010-09-01

    Quantitative risk assessment has emerged as a valuable tool to enhance the scientific basis of regulatory decisions in the food safety domain. This article introduces the use of two new computing resources (R packages) specifically developed to help risk assessors in their projects. The first package, "fitdistrplus", gathers tools for choosing and fitting a parametric univariate distribution to a given dataset. The data may be continuous or discrete. Continuous data may be right-, left- or interval-censored as is frequently obtained with analytical methods, with the possibility of various censoring thresholds within the dataset. Bootstrap procedures then allow the assessor to evaluate and model the uncertainty around the parameters and to transfer this information into a quantitative risk assessment model. The second package, "mc2d", helps to build and study two dimensional (or second-order) Monte-Carlo simulations in which the estimation of variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is separated. This package easily allows the transfer of separated variability and uncertainty along a chain of conditional mathematical and probabilistic models. The usefulness of these packages is illustrated through a risk assessment of hemolytic and uremic syndrome in children linked to the presence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. These R packages are freely available at the Comprehensive R Archive Network (cran.r-project.org).

  3. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  4. Integration of quantitative risk assessment in the health impact assessment of the recently amended Hungarian anti-smoking policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Gulis, Gabriel

    2011-01-01

    . In the frame of the Risk Assessment from Policy to Impact Dimension EU project, quantitative assessment of several health outcomes has been integrated in the HIA of the recently prepared anti-smoking policy of Hungary, which had the primary goal of protecting non-smokers from environmental tobacco smoke...... experiences, while outcome assessment calculated measures of disease burden, like attributable death and disability adjusted life years, for a baseline and a predicted situation after the proposed changes take place. The major impact of the proposal was identified to decreases prevalence of active and passive...... population of Hungary. As demonstrated by the results, providing smoke-free public places has an unambiguous positive impact on the health of the public that has been confirmed by the quantified health gain. The demonstrated methodology offers a practicable example for applying quantitative risk assessment...

  5. Quantitative assessment of risk reduction from hand washing with antibacterial soaps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, L L; Rose, J B; Haas, C N; Gerba, C P; Rusin, P A

    2002-01-01

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have estimated that there are 3,713,000 cases of infectious disease associated with day care facilities each year. The objective of this study was to examine the risk reduction achieved from using different soap formulations after diaper changing using a microbial quantitative risk assessment approach. To achieve this, a probability of infection model and an exposure assessment based on micro-organism transfer were used to evaluate the efficacy of different soap formulations in reducing the probability of disease following hand contact with an enteric pathogen. Based on this model, it was determined that the probability of infection ranged from 24/100 to 91/100 for those changing diapers of babies with symptomatic shigellosis who used a control product (soap without an antibacterial ingredient), 22/100 to 91/100 for those who used an antibacterial soap (chlorohexadine 4%), and 15/100 to 90/100 for those who used a triclosan (1.5%) antibacterial soap. Those with asymptomatic shigellosis who used a non-antibacterial control soap had a risk between 49/100,000 and 53/100, those who used the 4% chlorohexadine-containing soap had a risk between 43/100,000 and 51/100, and for those who used a 1.5% triclosan soap had a risk between 21/100,000 and 43/100. The adequate washing of hands after diapering reduces risk and can be further reduced by a factor of 20% by the use of an antibacterial soap. Quantitative risk assessment is a valuable tool in the evaluation of household sanitizing agents and low risk outcomes.

  6. Quantitative assessment of the risk of lung cancer associated with occupational exposure to refractory ceramic fibers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moolgavkar, S H; Luebeck, E G; Turim, J; Hanna, L

    1999-08-01

    We present the results of a quantitative assessment of the lung cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to refractory ceramic fibers (RCF). The primary sources of data for our risk assessment were two long-term oncogenicity studies in male Fischer rats conducted to assess the potential pathogenic effects associated with prolonged inhalation of RCF. An interesting feature of the data was the availability of the temporal profile of fiber burden in the lungs of experimental animals. Because of this information, we were able to conduct both exposure-response and dose-response analyses. Our risk assessment was conducted within the framework of a biologically based model for carcinogenesis, the two-stage clonal expansion model, which allows for the explicit incorporation of the concepts of initiation and promotion in the analyses. We found that a model positing that RCF was an initiator had the highest likelihood. We proposed an approach based on biological considerations for the extrapolation of risk to humans. This approach requires estimation of human lung burdens for specific exposure scenarios, which we did by using an extension of a model due to Yu. Our approach acknowledges that the risk associated with exposure to RCF depends on exposure to other lung carcinogens. We present estimates of risk in two populations: (1) a population of nonsmokers and (2) an occupational cohort of steelworkers not exposed to coke oven emissions, a mixed population that includes both smokers and nonsmokers.

  7. Food Consumption and Handling Survey for Quantitative Microbiological Consumer Phase Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chardon, Jurgen; Swart, Arno

    2016-07-01

    In the consumer phase of a typical quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), mathematical equations identify data gaps. To acquire useful data we designed a food consumption and food handling survey (2,226 respondents) for QMRA applications that is especially aimed at obtaining quantitative data. For a broad spectrum of food products, the survey covered the following topics: processing status at retail, consumer storage, preparation, and consumption. Questions were designed to facilitate distribution fitting. In the statistical analysis, special attention was given to the selection of the most adequate distribution to describe the data. Bootstrap procedures were used to describe uncertainty. The final result was a coherent quantitative consumer phase food survey and parameter estimates for food handling and consumption practices in The Netherlands, including variation over individuals and uncertainty estimates.

  8. Benchmark dose profiles for joint-action continuous data in quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Roland C; Piegorsch, Walter W

    2013-09-01

    Benchmark analysis is a widely used tool in biomedical and environmental risk assessment. Therein, estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a prespecified benchmark response (BMR) is well understood for the case of an adverse response to a single stimulus. For cases where two agents are studied in tandem, however, the benchmark approach is far less developed. This paper demonstrates how the benchmark modeling paradigm can be expanded from the single-agent setting to joint-action, two-agent studies. Focus is on continuous response outcomes. Extending the single-exposure setting, representations of risk are based on a joint-action dose-response model involving both agents. Based on such a model, the concept of a benchmark profile-a two-dimensional analog of the single-dose BMD at which both agents achieve the specified BMR-is defined for use in quantitative risk characterization and assessment.

  9. Local scale multiple quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation in a densely urbanised area (Brescia, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Lari

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study of the interactions between natural and anthropogenic risks is necessary for quantitative risk assessment in areas affected by active natural processes, high population density and strong economic activities.

    We present a multiple quantitative risk assessment on a 420 km2 high risk area (Brescia and surroundings, Lombardy, Northern Italy, for flood, seismic and industrial accident scenarios. Expected economic annual losses are quantified for each scenario and annual exceedance probability-loss curves are calculated. Uncertainty on the input variables is propagated by means of three different methodologies: Monte-Carlo-Simulation, First Order Second Moment, and point estimate.

    Expected losses calculated by means of the three approaches show similar values for the whole study area, about 64 000 000 € for earthquakes, about 10 000 000 € for floods, and about 3000 € for industrial accidents. Locally, expected losses assume quite different values if calculated with the three different approaches, with differences up to 19%.

    The uncertainties on the expected losses and their propagation, performed with the three methods, are compared and discussed in the paper. In some cases, uncertainty reaches significant values (up to almost 50% of the expected loss. This underlines the necessity of including uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment, especially when it is used as a support for territorial planning and decision making. The method is developed thinking at a possible application at a regional-national scale, on the basis of data available in Italy over the national territory.

  10. Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Geologic Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepinski, James

    2013-09-30

    A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO{sub 2} capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and the potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments

  11. Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, E.

    2006-01-01

    One of the important tracks leading to natural risk prevention, disaster mitigation or the reduction of losses due to natural hazards is the vulnerability assessment of an "at-risk" region. The majority of researchers propose to assess vulnerability according to an expert evaluation of several qualitative characteristics, scoring each of them usually using three ratings: low, average, and high. Unlike these investigations, we attempted a quantitative vulnerability assessment using multidimensional statistical methods. Cluster analysis for all 89 Russian regions revealed five different types of region, which are characterized with a single (rarely two) prevailing factor causing increase of vulnerability. These factors are: the sensitivity of the technosphere to unfavorable influences; a "human factor"; a high volume of stored toxic waste that increases possibility of NDs with serious consequences; the low per capita GRP, which determine reduced prevention and protection costs; the heightened liability of regions to natural disasters that can be complicated due to unfavorable social processes. The proposed methods permitted us to find differences in prevailing risk factor (vulnerability factor) for the region types that helps to show in which direction risk management should focus on.

  12. Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Petrova

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the important tracks leading to natural risk prevention, disaster mitigation or the reduction of losses due to natural hazards is the vulnerability assessment of an 'at-risk' region. The majority of researchers propose to assess vulnerability according to an expert evaluation of several qualitative characteristics, scoring each of them usually using three ratings: low, average, and high. Unlike these investigations, we attempted a quantitative vulnerability assessment using multidimensional statistical methods. Cluster analysis for all 89 Russian regions revealed five different types of region, which are characterized with a single (rarely two prevailing factor causing increase of vulnerability. These factors are: the sensitivity of the technosphere to unfavorable influences; a 'human factor'; a high volume of stored toxic waste that increases possibility of NDs with serious consequences; the low per capita GRP, which determine reduced prevention and protection costs; the heightened liability of regions to natural disasters that can be complicated due to unfavorable social processes. The proposed methods permitted us to find differences in prevailing risk factor (vulnerability factor for the region types that helps to show in which direction risk management should focus on.

  13. Bioaerosol Deposition to Food Crops near Manure Application: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahne, Michael A; Rogers, Shane W; Holsen, Thomas M; Grimberg, Stefan J; Ramler, Ivan P; Kim, Seungo

    2016-03-01

    Production of both livestock and food crops are central priorities of agriculture; however, food safety concerns arise where these practices intersect. In this study, we investigated the public health risks associated with potential bioaerosol deposition to crops grown in the vicinity of manure application sites. A field sampling campaign at dairy manure application sites supported the emission, transport, and deposition modeling of bioaerosols emitted from these lands following application activities. Results were coupled with a quantitative microbial risk assessment model to estimate the infection risk due to consumption of leafy green vegetable crops grown at various distances downwind from the application area. Inactivation of pathogens ( spp., spp., and O157:H7) on both the manure-amended field and on crops was considered to determine the maximum loading of pathogens to plants with time following application. Overall median one-time infection risks at the time of maximum loading decreased from 1:1300 at 0 m directly downwind from the field to 1:6700 at 100 m and 1:92,000 at 1000 m; peak risks (95th percentiles) were considerably greater (1:18, 1:89, and 1:1200, respectively). Median risk was below 1:10,000 at >160 m downwind. As such, it is recommended that a 160-m setback distance is provided between manure application and nearby leafy green crop production. Additional distance or delay before harvest will provide further protection of public health.

  14. Safety evaluation of disposable baby diapers using principles of quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Prashant; Lee, Byung-Mu; Liu, Tsung-Yun; Yuhui, Qin; Krause, Edburga; Marsman, Daniel S; Felter, Susan

    2009-01-01

    Baby diapers are complex products consisting of multiple layers of materials, most of which are not in direct contact with the skin. The safety profile of a diaper is determined by the biological properties of individual components and the extent to which the baby is exposed to each component during use. Rigorous evaluation of the toxicological profile and realistic exposure conditions of each material is important to ensure the overall safety of the diaper under normal and foreseeable use conditions. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles may be applied to the safety assessment of diapers and similar products. Exposure to component materials is determined by (1) considering the conditions of product use, (2) the degree to which individual layers of the product are in contact with the skin during use, and (3) the extent to which some components may be extracted by urine and delivered to skin. This assessment of potential exposure is then combined with data from standard safety assessments of components to determine the margin of safety (MOS). This study examined the application of QRA to the safety evaluation of baby diapers, including risk assessments for some diaper ingredient chemicals for which establishment of acceptable and safe exposure levels were demonstrated.

  15. Modelling bacterial growth in quantitative microbiological risk assessment: is it possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauta, Maarten J

    2002-03-01

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), predictive modelling and HACCP may be used as tools to increase food safety and can be integrated fruitfully for many purposes. However, when QMRA is applied for public health issues like the evaluation of the status of public health, existing predictive models may not be suited to model bacterial growth. In this context, precise quantification of risks is more important than in the context of food manufacturing alone. In this paper, the modular process risk model (MPRM) is briefly introduced as a QMRA modelling framework. This framework can be used to model the transmission of pathogens through any food pathway, by assigning one of six basic processes (modules) to each of the processing steps. Bacterial growth is one of these basic processes. For QMRA, models of bacterial growth need to be expressed in terms of probability, for example to predict the probability that a critical concentration is reached within a certain amount of time. In contrast, available predictive models are developed and validated to produce point estimates of population sizes and therefore do not fit with this requirement. Recent experience from a European risk assessment project is discussed to illustrate some of the problems that may arise when predictive growth models are used in QMRA. It is suggested that a new type of predictive models needs to be developed that incorporates modelling of variability and uncertainty in growth.

  16. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment in Occupational Settings Applied to the Airborne Human Adenovirus Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carducci, Annalaura; Donzelli, Gabriele; Cioni, Lorenzo; Verani, Marco

    2016-07-20

    Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) methodology, which has already been applied to drinking water and food safety, may also be applied to risk assessment and management at the workplace. The present study developed a preliminary QMRA model to assess microbial risk that is associated with inhaling bioaerosols that are contaminated with human adenovirus (HAdV). This model has been applied to air contamination data from different occupational settings, including wastewater systems, solid waste landfills, and toilets in healthcare settings and offices, with different exposure times. Virological monitoring showed the presence of HAdVs in all the evaluated settings, thus confirming that HAdV is widespread, but with different average concentrations of the virus. The QMRA results, based on these concentrations, showed that toilets had the highest probability of viral infection, followed by wastewater treatment plants and municipal solid waste landfills. Our QMRA approach in occupational settings is novel, and certain caveats should be considered. Nonetheless, we believe it is worthy of further discussions and investigations.

  17. Hotspot Identification for Shanghai Expressways Using the Quantitative Risk Assessment Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Can; Li, Tienan; Sun, Jian; Chen, Feng

    2016-01-01

    Hotspot identification (HSID) is the first and key step of the expressway safety management process. This study presents a new HSID method using the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) technique. Crashes that are likely to happen for a specific site are treated as the risk. The aggregation of the crash occurrence probability for all exposure vehicles is estimated based on the empirical Bayesian method. As for the consequences of crashes, crashes may not only cause direct losses (e.g., occupant injuries and property damages) but also result in indirect losses. The indirect losses are expressed by the extra delays calculated using the deterministic queuing diagram method. The direct losses and indirect losses are uniformly monetized to be considered as the consequences of this risk. The potential costs of crashes, as a criterion to rank high-risk sites, can be explicitly expressed as the sum of the crash probability for all passing vehicles and the corresponding consequences of crashes. A case study on the urban expressways of Shanghai is presented. The results show that the new QRA method for HSID enables the identification of a set of high-risk sites that truly reveal the potential crash costs to society.

  18. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

  19. An educationally inspired illustration of two-dimensional Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez, G A; Busschaert, P; Haberbeck, L U; Uyttendaele, M; Geeraerd, A H

    2014-11-03

    Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a structured methodology used to assess the risk involved by ingestion of a pathogen. It applies mathematical models combined with an accurate exploitation of data sets, represented by distributions and - in the case of two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations - their hyperparameters. This research aims to highlight background information, assumptions and truncations of a two-dimensional QMRA and advanced sensitivity analysis. We believe that such a detailed listing is not always clearly presented in actual risk assessment studies, while it is essential to ensure reliable and realistic simulations and interpretations. As a case-study, we are considering the occurrence of listeriosis in smoked fish products in Belgium during the period 2008-2009, using two-dimensional Monte Carlo and two sensitivity analysis methods (Spearman correlation and Sobol sensitivity indices) to estimate the most relevant factors of the final risk estimate. A risk estimate of 0.018% per consumption of contaminated smoked fish by an immunocompromised person was obtained. The final estimate of listeriosis cases (23) is within the actual reported result obtained for the same period and for the same population. Variability on the final risk estimate is determined by the variability regarding (i) consumer refrigerator temperatures, (ii) the reference growth rate of L. monocytogenes, (iii) the minimum growth temperature of L. monocytogenes and (iv) consumer portion size. Variability regarding the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes tends to appear as a determinant of risk variability only when the minimum growth temperature is not included in the sensitivity analysis; when it is included the impact regarding the variability on the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes is disappearing. Uncertainty determinants of the final risk indicated the need of gathering more information on the reference growth rate and the minimum

  20. Benchmark dose profiles for joint-action quantal data in quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Roland C; Piegorsch, Walter W

    2012-12-01

    Benchmark analysis is a widely used tool in public health risk analysis. Therein, estimation of minimum exposure levels, called Benchmark Doses (BMDs), that induce a prespecified Benchmark Response (BMR) is well understood for the case of an adverse response to a single stimulus. For cases where two agents are studied in tandem, however, the benchmark approach is far less developed. This article demonstrates how the benchmark modeling paradigm can be expanded from the single-dose setting to joint-action, two-agent studies. Focus is on response outcomes expressed as proportions. Extending the single-exposure setting, representations of risk are based on a joint-action dose-response model involving both agents. Based on such a model, the concept of a benchmark profile (BMP) - a two-dimensional analog of the single-dose BMD at which both agents achieve the specified BMR - is defined for use in quantitative risk characterization and assessment. The resulting, joint, low-dose guidelines can improve public health planning and risk regulation when dealing with low-level exposures to combinations of hazardous agents.

  1. Hydraulic fracturing in unconventional reservoirs - Identification of hazards and strategies for a quantitative risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmig, R.; Kissinger, A.; Class, H.; Ebigbo, A.

    2012-12-01

    fractured reservoir, fracture propagation, fault zones and their role in regard to fluid migration into shallow aquifers). A quantitative risk assessment which should be the main aim of future work in this field has much higher demands, especially on site specific data, as the estimation of statistical parameter uncertainty requires site specific parameter distributions. There is already ongoing research on risk assessment in related fields like CO2 sequestration. We therefore propose these methodologies to be transferred to risk estimation relating to the use of the hydraulic fracking method, be it for unconventional gas or enhanced geothermal energy production. The overall aim should be to set common and transparent standards for different uses of the subsurface and their involved risks and communicate those to policy makers and stake holders.

  2. Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, P.; van Westen, C. J.; Jetten, V.

    2010-06-01

    A quantitative approach for landslide risk assessment along transportation lines is presented and applied to a road and a railway alignment in the Nilgiri hills in southern India. The method allows estimating direct risk affecting the alignments, vehicles and people, and indirect risk resulting from the disruption of economic activities. The data required for the risk estimation were obtained from historical records. A total of 901 landslides were catalogued initiating from cut slopes along the railway and road alignment. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, run-out distance, etc and their probability of occurrence was obtained using frequency-volume distribution. Hazard, for a given return period, expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometre of cut slopes, was obtained using Gumbel distribution and probability of landslide magnitude. In total 18 specific hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The assessment of the vulnerability of the road and railway line was based on damage records whereas the vulnerability of different types of vehicles and people was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific loss for the alignments (railway line and road), vehicles (train, bus, lorry, car and motorbike) was expressed in monetary value (US), and direct specific loss of life of commuters was expressed in annual probability of death. Indirect specific loss (US) derived from the traffic interruption was evaluated considering alternative driving routes, and includes losses resulting from additional fuel consumption, additional travel cost, loss of income to the local business, and loss of revenue to the railway department. The results indicate that the total loss, including both direct and indirect loss, from 1 to 50 years return period, varies from US 90 840 to US

  3. Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jaiswal

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A quantitative approach for landslide risk assessment along transportation lines is presented and applied to a road and a railway alignment in the Nilgiri hills in southern India. The method allows estimating direct risk affecting the alignments, vehicles and people, and indirect risk resulting from the disruption of economic activities. The data required for the risk estimation were obtained from historical records. A total of 901 landslides were catalogued initiating from cut slopes along the railway and road alignment. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, run-out distance, etc and their probability of occurrence was obtained using frequency-volume distribution. Hazard, for a given return period, expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometre of cut slopes, was obtained using Gumbel distribution and probability of landslide magnitude. In total 18 specific hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years. The assessment of the vulnerability of the road and railway line was based on damage records whereas the vulnerability of different types of vehicles and people was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific loss for the alignments (railway line and road, vehicles (train, bus, lorry, car and motorbike was expressed in monetary value (US$, and direct specific loss of life of commuters was expressed in annual probability of death. Indirect specific loss (US$ derived from the traffic interruption was evaluated considering alternative driving routes, and includes losses resulting from additional fuel consumption, additional travel cost, loss of income to the local business, and loss of revenue to the railway department. The results indicate that the total loss, including both direct and indirect loss, from 1 to 50 years return period, varies from

  4. Legionellae in engineered systems and use of quantitative microbial risk assessment to predict exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buse, Helen Y; Schoen, Mary E; Ashbolt, Nicholas J

    2012-03-15

    While it is well-established that Legionella are able to colonize engineered water systems, the number of interacting factors contributing to their occurrence, proliferation, and persistence are unclear. This review summarizes current methods used to detect and quantify legionellae as well as the current knowledge of engineered water system characteristics that both favour and promote legionellae growth. Furthermore, the use of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models to predict potentially critical human exposures to legionellae are also discussed. Understanding the conditions favouring Legionella occurrence in engineered systems and their overall ecology (growth in these systems/biofilms, biotic interactions and release) will aid in developing new treatment technologies and/or systems that minimize or eliminate human exposure to potentially pathogenic legionellae.

  5. Quantitative NDI integration with probabilistic fracture mechanics for the assessment of fracture risk in pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurz, Jochen H.; Cioclov, Dragos; Dobmann, Gerd; Boiler, Christian [Fraunhofer Inst. fuer Zerstoerungsfreie Pruefverfahren (IZFP), Saarbruecken (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    In the context of probabilistic paradigm of fracture risk assessment in structural components a computer simulation rationale is presented which has at the base the integration of Quantitative Non-destructive Inspection and Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics. In this study the static failure under static loading is assessed in the format known as Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD). The key concept in the analysis is the stress intensity factor (SIF) which accounts on the geometry of the component and the size of a pre-existent defect of a crack nature. FAD assessments can be made in deterministic sense, which yields the end result in dual terms of fail/not-fail. The fracture risk is evaluated in probabilistic terms. The superposed probabilistic pattern over the deterministic one (in mean sense) is implemented via Monte-Carlo sampling. The probabilistic fracture simulation yields a more informative analysis in terms of probability of failure. An important feature of the PVrisk software is the ability to simulate the influence of the quality and reliability of non-destructive inspection (NDI). It is achieved by integrating, algorithmically. probabilistic FAD analysis and the Probability of Detection (POD). The POD information can only be applied in a probabilistic analysis and leads to a refinement of the assessment. By this means, it can be ascertained the decrease of probability of failure (increase of reliability) when POD-characterized NDI is applied. Therefore, this procedure can be used as a tool for inspection based life time conceptions. In this paper results of sensitivity analyses of the fracture toughness are presented with the aim to outline, in terms of non-failure probabilities, the benefits of applying NDI, in various qualities, in comparison with the situation when NDI is lacking. (orig.)

  6. A probabilistic approach to quantitatively assess the inhalation risk for airborne endotoxin in cotton textile workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan, E-mail: vivianliao@ntu.edu.tw [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, 1 Roosevelt Road, Sec. 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Chou, Wei-Chun; Chio, Chia-Pin; Ju, Yun-Ru; Liao, Chung-Min [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, 1 Roosevelt Road, Sec. 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China)

    2010-05-15

    Endotoxin, a component of gram-negative bacterial cell walls, is a proinflammatory agent that induces local and systemic inflammatory responses in normal subjects which can contribute to the risk of developing asthma and chronic obstructive lung diseases. A probabilistic approach linking models of exposure, internal dosimetry, and health effects were carried out to quantitatively assess the potential inhalation risk of airborne endotoxin for workers in cotton textile plants. Combining empirical data and modeling results, we show that the half-maximum effects of the endotoxin dose (ED50) were estimated to be 3.3 x 10{sup 5} (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-14.7 x 10{sup 5}) endotoxin units (EU) for the blood C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration, 1.1 x 10{sup 5} (95% CI: 0.6-1.7 x 10{sup 5}) EU for the blood polymorphonuclear neutrophil (PMN) count, and 1.5 x 10{sup 5} (95% CI: 0.4-2.5 x 10{sup 5}) EU for the sputum PMN count. Our study offers a risk-management framework for discussing future establishment of limits for respiratory exposure to airborne endotoxin for workers in cotton textile plants.

  7. Quantitative microbial risk assessment combined with hydrodynamic modelling to estimate the public health risk associated with bathing after rainfall events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eregno, Fasil Ejigu; Tryland, Ingun; Tjomsland, Torulv; Myrmel, Mette; Robertson, Lucy; Heistad, Arve

    2016-04-01

    This study investigated the public health risk from exposure to infectious microorganisms at Sandvika recreational beaches, Norway and dose-response relationships by combining hydrodynamic modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). Meteorological and hydrological data were collected to produce a calibrated hydrodynamic model using Escherichia coli as an indicator of faecal contamination. Based on average concentrations of reference pathogens (norovirus, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Giardia and Cryptosporidium) relative to E. coli in Norwegian sewage from previous studies, the hydrodynamic model was used for simulating the concentrations of pathogens at the local beaches during and after a heavy rainfall event, using three different decay rates. The simulated concentrations were used as input for QMRA and the public health risk was estimated as probability of infection from a single exposure of bathers during the three consecutive days after the rainfall event. The level of risk on the first day after the rainfall event was acceptable for the bacterial and parasitic reference pathogens, but high for the viral reference pathogen at all beaches, and severe at Kalvøya-small and Kalvøya-big beaches, supporting the advice of avoiding swimming in the day(s) after heavy rainfall. The study demonstrates the potential of combining discharge-based hydrodynamic modelling with QMRA in the context of bathing water as a tool to evaluate public health risk and support beach management decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Quantitative risk assessment of entry of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia through live cattle imported from northwestern Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woube, Yilkal Asfaw; Dibaba, Asseged Bogale; Tameru, Berhanu; Fite, Richard; Nganwa, David; Robnett, Vinaida; Demisse, Amsalu; Habtemariam, Tsegaye

    2015-11-01

    Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a highly contagious bacterial disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies mycoides small colony (SC) bovine biotype (MmmSC). It has been eradicated from many countries; however, the disease persists in many parts of Africa and Asia. CBPP is one of the major trade-restricting diseases of cattle in Ethiopia. In this quantitative risk assessment the OIE concept of zoning was adopted to assess the entry of CBPP into an importing country when up to 280,000 live cattle are exported every year from the northwestern proposed disease free zone (DFZ) of Ethiopia. To estimate the level of risk, a six-tiered risk pathway (scenario tree) was developed, evidences collected and equations generated. The probability of occurrence of the hazard at each node was modelled as a probability distribution using Monte Carlo simulation (@RISK software) at 10,000 iterations to account for uncertainty and variability. The uncertainty and variability of data points surrounding the risk estimate were further quantified by sensitivity analysis. In this study a single animal destined for export from the northwestern DFZ of Ethiopia has a CBPP infection probability of 4.76×10(-6) (95% CI=7.25×10(-8) 1.92×10(-5)). The probability that at least one infected animal enters an importing country in one year is 0.53 (90% CI=0.042-0.97). The expected number of CBPP infected animals exported any given year is 1.28 (95% CI=0.021-5.42). According to the risk estimate, an average of 2.73×10(6) animals (90% CI=10,674-5.9×10(6)) must be exported to get the first infected case. By this account it would, on average, take 10.15 years (90% CI=0.24-23.18) for the first infected animal to be included in the consignment. Sensitivity analysis revealed that prevalence and vaccination had the highest impact on the uncertainty and variability of the overall risk.

  9. Application of Bayesian networks in quantitative risk assessment of subsea blowout preventer operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Baoping; Liu, Yonghong; Liu, Zengkai; Tian, Xiaojie; Zhang, Yanzhen; Ji, Renjie

    2013-07-01

    This article proposes a methodology for the application of Bayesian networks in conducting quantitative risk assessment of operations in offshore oil and gas industry. The method involves translating a flow chart of operations into the Bayesian network directly. The proposed methodology consists of five steps. First, the flow chart is translated into a Bayesian network. Second, the influencing factors of the network nodes are classified. Third, the Bayesian network for each factor is established. Fourth, the entire Bayesian network model is established. Lastly, the Bayesian network model is analyzed. Subsequently, five categories of influencing factors, namely, human, hardware, software, mechanical, and hydraulic, are modeled and then added to the main Bayesian network. The methodology is demonstrated through the evaluation of a case study that shows the probability of failure on demand in closing subsea ram blowout preventer operations. The results show that mechanical and hydraulic factors have the most important effects on operation safety. Software and hardware factors have almost no influence, whereas human factors are in between. The results of the sensitivity analysis agree with the findings of the quantitative analysis. The three-axiom-based analysis partially validates the correctness and rationality of the proposed Bayesian network model.

  10. A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snary, Emma L; Swart, Arno N; Simons, Robin R L; Domingues, Ana Rita Calado; Vigre, Hakan; Evers, Eric G; Hald, Tine; Hill, Andrew A

    2016-03-01

    A farm-to-consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter-pig prevalence and the impact of control measures on the risk of human Salmonella infection. A key consideration during the QMRA development was the characterization of variability between E.U. Member States (MSs), and therefore a generic MS model was developed that accounts for differences in pig production, slaughterhouse practices, and consumption patterns. To demonstrate the parameterization of the model, four case study MSs were selected that illustrate the variability in production of pork meat and products across MSs. For the case study MSs the average probability of illness was estimated to be between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10 million servings given consumption of one of the three product types considered (pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready-to-eat sausages). Further analyses of the farm-to-consumption QMRA suggest that the vast majority of human risk derives from infected pigs with a high concentration of Salmonella in their feces (≥10(4) CFU/g). Therefore, it is concluded that interventions should be focused on either decreasing the level of Salmonella in the feces of infected pigs, the introduction of a control step at the abattoir to reduce the transfer of feces to the exterior of the pig, or a control step to reduce the level of Salmonella on the carcass post-evisceration.

  11. Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

    2015-02-01

    When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise.

  12. Characterizing trabecular bone structure for assessing vertebral fracture risk on volumetric quantitative computed tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagarajan, Mahesh B.; Checefsky, Walter A.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Tsai, Halley; Wang, Xixi; Hobbs, Susan K.; Bauer, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas; Wismüller, Axel

    2015-03-01

    While the proximal femur is preferred for measuring bone mineral density (BMD) in fracture risk estimation, the introduction of volumetric quantitative computed tomography has revealed stronger associations between BMD and spinal fracture status. In this study, we propose to capture properties of trabecular bone structure in spinal vertebrae with advanced second-order statistical features for purposes of fracture risk assessment. For this purpose, axial multi-detector CT (MDCT) images were acquired from 28 spinal vertebrae specimens using a whole-body 256-row CT scanner with a dedicated calibration phantom. A semi-automated method was used to annotate the trabecular compartment in the central vertebral slice with a circular region of interest (ROI) to exclude cortical bone; pixels within were converted to values indicative of BMD. Six second-order statistical features derived from gray-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) and the mean BMD within the ROI were then extracted and used in conjunction with a generalized radial basis functions (GRBF) neural network to predict the failure load of the specimens; true failure load was measured through biomechanical testing. Prediction performance was evaluated with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) metric. The best prediction performance was observed with GLCM feature `correlation' (RMSE = 1.02 ± 0.18), which significantly outperformed all other GLCM features (p GLCM feature correlation also significantly outperformed MDCTmeasured mean BMD (RMSE = 1.11 ± 0.17) (pGLCM-derived texture features.

  13. Utilization of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) in risk assessment: Alkylphenols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beck, B.D.; Toole, A.P.; Callahan, B.G.; Siddhanti, S.K. (Gradient Corporation, Cambridge, MA (United States))

    1991-12-01

    Alkylphenols are a class of environmentally pervasive compounds, found both in natural (e.g., crude oils) and in anthropogenic (e.g., wood tar, coal gasification waste) materials. Despite the frequent environmental occurrence of these chemicals, there is a limited toxicity database on alkylphenols. The authors have therefore developed a 'toxicity equivalence approach' for alkylphenols which is based on their ability to inhibit, in a specific manner, the enzyme cyclooxygenase. Enzyme-inhibiting ability for individual alkylphenols can be estimated based on the quantitative structure-activity relationship developed by Dewhirst (1980) and is a function of the free hydroxyl group, electron-donating ring substituents, and hydrophobic aromatic ring substituents. The authors evaluated the toxicological significance of cyclooxygenase inhibition by comparison of the inhibitory capacity of alkylphenols with the inhibitory capacity of acetylsalicylic acid, or aspirin, a compound whose low-level effects are due to cyclooxygenase inhibition. Since nearly complete absorption for alkylphenols and aspirin is predicted, based on estimates of hydrophobicity and fraction of charged molecules at gastrointestinal pHs, risks from alkylphenols can be expressed directly in terms of 'milligram aspirin equivalence,' without correction for absorption differences. They recommend this method for assessing risks of mixtures of alkylphenols, especially for those compounds with no chronic toxicity data.38 references.

  14. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Lung Cancer from Exposure to Metal Ore Dust

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FUHUA; JINGXIPENG; 等

    1992-01-01

    To quantitatively assess risk for lung cancer of metal miners,a historical cohort study was conducted.The cohort consisted of 1113 miners who were employed to underground work for at least 12 months between January 1,1960and December,12,1974,According to the records or dust concentration,a cumulative dust dose of each miner in the cohort was estimated.There wer 162 deaths in total and 45 deaths from lung cancer with a SMR of 2184,The SMR for lung cancer increased from 1019 for those with cumulative dust of less than 500mg-year to 2469 for those with the dose of greater than 4500mg-year.Furthermore,the risk in the highest category of combined cumulative dust dose and cigarette smoking was 46-fold greater than the lowest category of dust dose and smoking.This study showed that there was an exposure-response relationship between metal ore dust and lung cancer,and an interaction of lung cancer between smoking and metal ore dust exposure.

  15. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  16. Stability and reproducibility of semi-quantitative risk assessment methods within the occupational health and safety scope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, F; Melo, R B

    2015-01-01

    In many enterprises the semi-quantitative approach turns out to be the available and most suitable technique to perform a risk assessment. Despite its advantages, we cannot disregard the existing gap in terms of validation of this type of applications. This paper reports a study about risk assessments' reliability, namely both inter-coder (reproducibility) and intra-coder (stability) reliability of the semi-quantitative approach. This study comprised 4 fundamental stages. Data collection relied on free and systematized observations and made use of video recording, documental research, analysis grids and questionnaires specifically developed for this purpose. A set of different analysts were asked to use four semi-quantitative risk assessment methods (in two different moments) to estimate and assess six risks identified in two tasks accomplished to produce Airbags. The Krippendorff's Alpha Coefficient (α K) was the agreement measure selected to evaluate both inter-coder and intra-coder consensus. The preliminary results revealed a general low concordance (α K risk assessment results obtained by individuals with different levels of experience or expertise. This study revealed that the use of the semi-quantitative approach should be done with caution.

  17. A simplified method for quantitative assessment of the relative health and safety risk of environmental management activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eide, S.A.; Smith, T.H.; Peatross, R.G.; Stepan, I.E.

    1996-09-01

    This report presents a simplified method to assess the health and safety risk of Environmental Management activities of the US Department of Energy (DOE). The method applies to all types of Environmental Management activities including waste management, environmental restoration, and decontamination and decommissioning. The method is particularly useful for planning or tradeoff studies involving multiple conceptual options because it combines rapid evaluation with a quantitative approach. The method is also potentially applicable to risk assessments of activities other than DOE Environmental Management activities if rapid quantitative results are desired.

  18. Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

    2016-03-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical

  19. Quantitative Metrics and Risk Assessment: The Three Tenets Model of Cybersecurity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Hughes

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Progress in operational cybersecurity has been difficult to demonstrate. In spite of the considerable research and development investments made for more than 30 years, many government, industrial, financial, and consumer information systems continue to be successfully attacked and exploited on a routine basis. One of the main reasons that progress has been so meagre is that most technical cybersecurity solutions that have been proposed to-date have been point solutions that fail to address operational tradeoffs, implementation costs, and consequent adversary adaptations across the full spectrum of vulnerabilities. Furthermore, sound prescriptive security principles previously established, such as the Orange Book, have been difficult to apply given current system complexity and acquisition approaches. To address these issues, the authors have developed threat-based descriptive methodologies to more completely identify system vulnerabilities, to quantify the effectiveness of possible protections against those vulnerabilities, and to evaluate operational consequences and tradeoffs of possible protections. This article begins with a discussion of the tradeoffs among seemingly different system security properties such as confidentiality, integrity, and availability. We develop a quantitative framework for understanding these tradeoffs and the issues that arise when those security properties are all in play within an organization. Once security goals and candidate protections are identified, risk/benefit assessments can be performed using a novel multidisciplinary approach, called “QuERIES.” The article ends with a threat-driven quantitative methodology, called “The Three Tenets”, for identifying vulnerabilities and countermeasures in networked cyber-physical systems. The goal of this article is to offer operational guidance, based on the techniques presented here, for informed decision making about cyber-physical system security.

  20. Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of drought on extreme temperature in eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Ouyang, Wei

    2017-09-01

    Hot extremes may lead to disastrous impacts on human health and agricultural production. Previous studies have revealed the feedback between drought and hot extremes in large regions of eastern China, while quantifying the impact of antecedent drought on hot extremes has been limited. This study aims at quantitatively assessing the risk of extreme temperature conditioned on the antecedent drought condition represented by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) during summer time in eastern China. A copula-based model is proposed to construct the joint probability distribution of extreme temperature and drought based on 6 month SPI (SPI6). Accordingly, the conditional probability distribution is employed to quantify impacts of antecedent dry (and wet) conditions on the exceedance probability of extreme temperature. Results show that the likelihood of extreme temperature exceeding high quantiles is higher given antecedent dry conditions than that given antecedent wet conditions in large regions from southwestern to northeastern China. Specifically, the conditional probability difference of temperature exceeding 80th percentile given SPI6 lower than or equal to -0.5 and SPI6 higher than 0.5 is around 0.2-0.3. The case study of the 2006 summer hot extremes and drought in Sichuan and Chongqing region shows that the conditional return period of extreme temperature conditioned on antecedent drought is around 5-50 years shorter than univariate return period. These results quantify the impact of antecedent drought on subsequent extreme temperature and highlight the important role of antecedent drought in intensifying hot extremes in these regions.

  1. A quantitative risk assessment tool for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voort, M.M. van der; Klein, A.J.J.; Maaijer, M. de; Berg, A.C. van den; Deursen, J.R. van; Versloot, N.H.A.

    2007-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tool has been developed by TNO for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard. As a first step an industrial plant is divided into groups of modules, defined by their size, shape, and constructional properties. Then the relevant explosi

  2. Designing SQCRA as a Software to Semi-quantitative Chemical Risk Assessment in Workplace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Karimi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives : The aim of chemical risk assessment is to identify and evaluate risks originated from chemicals usages. This study aims to design a practical tool for facilitating chemical risk assessment. Methods: The proposed software was derived from chemical risk assessment method which was recommended by Ministry of Human Resources of Malaysia. All of the processes in question are designed in operating system software. Based on some revisions, this software was developed using Visual Basic (VB titled as SQCRA. The developed software was used for chemical risk assessment in Narges Vegetale Oil Company in Shiraz (center of Iran. Result: The output of software showed that the level of risk derived from sulfuric acid, phosphoric acid, aluminum sulphate, nickel catalyst, acetic acid used as a raw material were 2.4, 2.84, 2.3, 3.5 and 2.66, respectively. Moreover, risk rank and proposed control methods for each of these materials were determined. Conclusions : The developed software calculates the health risk level based on the degree of hazard and exposure in shorttime and without using risk matrix and chemical formula. After determining the risk rank, the software proposes the control procedures to reduce occupational exposure.

  3. Estimating distributions out of qualitative and (semi)quantitative microbiological contamination data for use in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busschaert, P; Geeraerd, A H; Uyttendaele, M; Van Impe, J F

    2010-04-15

    A framework using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is used to fit a probability distribution to a set of qualitative (e.g., absence in 25 g), semi-quantitative (e.g., presence in 25 g and absence in 1g) and/or quantitative test results (e.g., 10 CFU/g). Uncertainty about the parameters of the variability distribution is characterized through a non-parametric bootstrapping method. The resulting distribution function can be used as an input for a second order Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative risk assessment. As an illustration, the method is applied to two sets of in silico generated data. It is demonstrated that correct interpretation of data results in an accurate representation of the contamination level distribution. Subsequently, two case studies are analyzed, namely (i) quantitative analyses of Campylobacter spp. in food samples with nondetects, and (ii) combined quantitative, qualitative, semiquantitative analyses and nondetects of Listeria monocytogenes in smoked fish samples. The first of these case studies is also used to illustrate what the influence is of the limit of quantification, measurement error, and the number of samples included in the data set. Application of these techniques offers a way for meta-analysis of the many relevant yet diverse data sets that are available in literature and (inter)national reports of surveillance or baseline surveys, therefore increases the information input of a risk assessment and, by consequence, the correctness of the outcome of the risk assessment.

  4. Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

    2016-08-01

    Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well.

  5. The EFSA quantitative approach to pest risk assessment – methodological aspects and case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gilioli, G.; Schrader, G.; Grégoire, J.C.; MacLeod, A.; Mosbach-Schulz, O.; Rafoss, T.; Rossi, V.; Urek, G.; Werf, van der W.

    2017-01-01

    A new method for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of risk-reducing options is currently under development by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Plant Health Panel. The draft method has been tested on pests of concern to the European Union (EU). The method is adapt

  6. Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helms, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-02-10

    The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investments or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.

  7. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  8. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE METHODS IN RISK-BASED RELIABILITY ASSESSING UNDER EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Khalaj

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The overall objective of the reliability allocation is to increase the profitability of the operation and optimise the total life cycle cost without losses from failure issues. The methodology, called risk-based reliability (RBR, is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum cost and acceptable risk. This assessment integrates reliability with the smaller losses from failures issues, and so can be used as a tool for decision-making. The approach to maximising reliability should be replaced with the risk-based reliability assessment approach, in which reliability planning, based on risk analysis, minimises the probability of system failure and its consequences. This paper proposes a new methodology for risk-based reliability under epistemic uncertainty, using possibility theory and probability theory. This methodology is used for a case study in order to determine the reliability and risk of production systems when the available data are insufficient, and to help make decisions.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die hoofdoelwit van betroubaarheidstoedeling is die verhoging van winsgewendheid van sisteemgebruik teen die agtergrond van optimum totale leeftydsikluskoste. Die metodologie genaamd “risikogebaseerde betroubaarheid” behels die bepaling van ’n risikoskatting om optimum koste te behaal vir ’n aanvaarbare risiko. Die navorsing stel vervolgens ’n nuwe ontledingsmetode voor vir epistemiese onsekerheid gebaseer op moontlikheids- en waarskynlikheidsleer. ’n Bypassende gevallestudie word aangebied.

  9. A quantitative microbial risk assessment for meatborne Toxoplasma gondii infection in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opsteegh, Marieke; Prickaerts, Saskia; Frankena, Klaas; Evers, Eric G

    2011-11-01

    Toxoplasma gondii is an important foodborne pathogen, and the cause of a high disease burden due to congenital toxoplasmosis in The Netherlands. The aim of this study was to quantify the relative contribution of sheep, beef and pork products to human T. gondii infections by Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). Bradyzoite concentration and portion size data were used to estimate the bradyzoite number in infected unprocessed portions for human consumption. The reduction factors for salting, freezing and heating as estimated based on published experiments in mice, were subsequently used to estimate the bradyzoite number in processed portions. A dose-response relation for T. gondii infection in mice was used to estimate the human probability of infection due to consumption of these originally infected processed portions. By multiplying these probabilities with the prevalence of T. gondii per livestock species and the number of portions consumed per year, the number of infections per year was calculated for the susceptible Dutch population and the subpopulation of susceptible pregnant women. QMRA results predict high numbers of infections per year with beef as the most important source. Although many uncertainties were present in the data and the number of congenital infections predicted by the model was almost twenty times higher than the number estimated based on the incidence in newborns, the usefulness of the advice to thoroughly heat meat is confirmed by our results. Forty percent of all predicted infections is due to the consumption of unheated meat products, and sensitivity analysis indicates that heating temperature has the strongest influence on the predicted number of infections. The results also demonstrate that, even with a low prevalence of infection in cattle, consumption of beef remains an important source of infection. Developing this QMRA model has helped identify important gaps of knowledge and resulted in the following recommendations for

  10. Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO2 Sequestration in a commerical-scale EOR Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, F.; McPherson, B. J. O. L.; Dai, Z.; Jia, W.; Lee, S. Y.; Ampomah, W.; Viswanathan, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Enhanced Oil Recovery with CO2 (CO2-EOR) is perhaps the most feasible option for geologic CO2 sequestration (GCS), if only due to existing infrastructure and economic opportunities of associated oil production. Probably the most significant source of uncertainty of CO2 storage forecasts is heterogeneity of reservoir properties. Quantification of storage forecast uncertainty is critical for accurate assessment of risks associated with GCS in EOR fields. This study employs a response surface methodology (RSM) to quantify uncertainties of CO2 storage associated with oil production in an active CO2-EOR field. Specifically, the Morrow formation, a clastic reservoir within the Farnsworth EOR Unit (FWU) in Texas, was selected as a case study. Four uncertain parameters (i.e., independent variables) are reservoir permeability, anisotropy ratio of permeability, water-alternating-gas (WAG) time ratio, and initial oil saturation. Cumulative oil production and net CO2 injection are the output dependent variables. A 3-D FWU reservoir model, including a representative 5-spot well pattern, was constructed for CO2-oil-water multiphase flow analysis. A total of 25 permutations of 3-D reservoir simulations were executed using Eclipse simulator. After performing stepwise regression analysis, a series of response surface models of the output variables at each step were constructed and verified using appropriate goodness-of-fit measures. The R2 values are larger than 0.9 and NRMSE values are less than 5% between the simulated and predicted oil production and net CO2 injection, suggesting that the response surface (or proxy) models are sufficient for predicting CO2-EOR system behavior for FWU case. Given the range of uncertainties in the independent variables, the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of dependent variables were estimated using the proxy models. The predicted cumulative oil production and net CO2 injection at 95th percentile after 5 years are about 3.65 times, and 1

  11. A quantitative risk assessment model for Vibrio parahaemolyticus in raw oysters in Sao Paulo State, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobrinho, Paulo de S Costa; Destro, Maria T; Franco, Bernadette D G M; Landgraf, Mariza

    2014-06-16

    A risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus associated with raw oysters produced and consumed in São Paulo State was developed. The model was built according to the United States Food and Drug Administration framework for risk assessment. The outcome of the exposure assessment estimated the prevalence and density of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in raw oysters from harvest to consumption. The result of the exposure step was combined with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to estimate the probability of illness. The model predicted that the average risks per serving of raw oysters were 4.7×10(-4), 6.0×10(-4), 4.7×10(-4) and 3.1×10(-4) for spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the most influential variables on the risk of illness were the total density of V. parahaemolyticus at harvest, transport temperature, relative prevalence of pathogenic strains and storage time at retail. Only storage time under refrigeration at retail showed negative correlation with the risk of illness.

  12. Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

    2012-09-01

    Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to

  13. Leukemia from dermal exposure to cyclophosphamide among nurses in the Netherlands: Quantitative assessment of the risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fransman, W.; Kager, H.; Meijster, T.; Heederik, D.; Kromhout, H.; Portengen, L.; Blaauboer, B.J.

    2014-01-01

    Several studies showed that oncology nurses are exposed to antineoplastic drugs via the skin during daily activities. Several antineoplastic drugs (including cyclophosphamide) have been classified as carcinogenic to humans. This study aims to assess the leukemia risk of occupational exposure to

  14. Leukemia from dermal exposure to cyclophosphamide among nurses in the Netherlands : Quantitative assessment of the risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fransman, Wouter; Kager, Hans; Meijster, Tim; Heederik, Dick; Kromhout, Hans; Portengen, Lützen; Blaauboer, Bas J.

    2014-01-01

    Several studies showed that oncology nurses are exposed to antineoplastic drugs via the skin during daily activities. Several antineoplastic drugs (including cyclophosphamide) have been classified as carcinogenic to humans. This study aims to assess the leukemia risk of occupational exposure to

  15. Impact of acquired immunity and dose-dependent probability of illness on quantitative microbial risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Havelaar, A. H.; Swart, A. N.

    2014-01-01

    Dose-response models in microbial risk assessment consider two steps in the process ultimately leading to illness: from exposure to (asymptomatic) infection, and from infection to (symptomatic) illness. Most data and theoretical approaches are available for the exposure-infection step; the infection

  16. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers - specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mataragas, M.; Zwietering, M.H.; Skandamis, P.N.; Drosinos, E.H.

    2010-01-01

    The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required),

  17. Uncertainty assessment in quantitative risk analyses. Literature review; Usikkerhedsbeskrivelse i kvantitative risikoanalyser. Litteraturgennemgang

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-06-01

    Literature on uncertainty assessment for risk-analytical purposes has been compiled. Databases Inspec, Compendex, Energy Science and Technology, Chemical Abstracts, Chemical Safety Newsbase, HSEline and MathSci were searched. Roughly 80 references have been selected from these databases and divided according to the following uncertainty classes: 1. Statistical uncertainty; 2. Data uncertainty; 3. Presumption uncertainty; 4. Uncertainty of consequence models; 5. Cognitive uncertainty. (EG)

  18. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research...... however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  19. Quantitative risk assessment integrated with process simulator for a new technology of methanol production plant using recycled CO₂.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Domenico, Julia; Vaz, Carlos André; de Souza, Maurício Bezerra

    2014-06-15

    The use of process simulators can contribute with quantitative risk assessment (QRA) by minimizing expert time and large volume of data, being mandatory in the case of a future plant. This work illustrates the advantages of this association by integrating UNISIM DESIGN simulation and QRA to investigate the acceptability of a new technology of a Methanol Production Plant in a region. The simulated process was based on the hydrogenation of chemically sequestered carbon dioxide, demanding stringent operational conditions (high pressures and temperatures) and involving the production of hazardous materials. The estimation of the consequences was performed using the PHAST software, version 6.51. QRA results were expressed in terms of individual and social risks. Compared to existing tolerance levels, the risks were considered tolerable in nominal conditions of operation of the plant. The use of the simulator in association with the QRA also allowed testing the risk in new operating conditions in order to delimit safe regions for the plant.

  20. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Campylobacter Foodborne Illness in Raw Beef Offal Consumption in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Jiyeon; Lee, Jeeyeon; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Ha, Jimyeong; Yoon, Ki-Sun; Yoon, Yohan

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluated the risk of Campylobacter foodborne illness caused by the intake of raw beef offal in South Korea. The prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in raw beef offal (liver and tripe) was investigated by plating samples on modified charcoal-cefoperazone-deoxycholate agar with Preston enrichment broth. Data were collected about storage temperature and length of storage of raw beef offal, and probabilistic distributions for the data were determined, using @RISK software. Predictive models were developed to describe the fate of Campylobacter in raw beef offal, and the amount and frequency of consumption and dose-response model were surveyed. Subsequently, these data were used to estimate the risk of Campylobacter foodborne illness caused by the intake of raw beef offal. Of 80 beef offal samples, 1 (1.25%) was contaminated with Campylobacter jejuni . Predictive models were used for exposure assessment. An exponential distribution was selected to represent beef offal consumption by people who eat this occasionally, with a mean of 60.2 g and 3.6% monthly consumption frequency. Simulations using @RISK predicted that the probability of Campylobacter foodborne illness per person per month is 1.56 × 10(-5) for home consumption and 1.74 × 10(-5) for restaurant consumption in South Korea, which indicates the risk of Campylobacter foodborne illness by intake of raw beef offal in South Korea.

  1. Quantitative Analysis of Uncertainty in Financial Risk Assessment of Road Transportation of Wood in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danilo Simões

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainty in road transportation of wood is inherent to its operational costs, to the amount of transported wood, to the traveled distance, to its revenue, and more. Although it is not possible to measure this uncertainty fully, it can be quantified by the investment risk, which is the probability and degree of financial loss. The objective of this study is to quantify the financial risk of the investment in wood transportation through Monte Carlo simulation, which uses realistic situations to estimate the operational cost of vehicles used for road transportation of wood. We quantify these uncertainties by assessing financial risk and building pseudorandom scenarios with the Monte Carlo simulation method, in addition to the Net Present Value techniques, the Modified Internal Rate of Return, and the Profitability Index, all commonly used in financial investment projects. The results show that the estimated operational costs are equivalent to the actual ones, along with the evidence that the cost of fuel, the driver’s manpower, and tires are components that mainly increase the degree of financial risk for an investment project in road transportation of wood. In contrast, optimizing the amount of transported wood and maximizing wood transportation cost have a significant and positive correlation with the volume of transported wood and the average price of wood transportation, leading to a reduction in the degree of financial risk.

  2. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Natural and Processed Cheeses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Lee, Jeeyeon; Ha, Jimyeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-08-01

    This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model (r = 1.82×10(-11)) was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were 12.40±19.43 g and 19.46±14.39 g, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g) and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g) were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (α 1 = 1, α 2 = 91; α 1 = 1, α 2 = 309)×uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8) to be -2.35 and -2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were 9.57×10(-14) and 3.58×10(-14), respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness

  3. Quantitative health risk assessment of Cryptosporidium in rivers of southern China based on continuous monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Wei; Zhang, Dongqing; Xiao, Shumin; Yu, Jianwei; Yang, Min

    2011-06-01

    The concentrations of Cryptosporidium in the source water of several cities of Zhejiang Province, China were determined to be in the range of 0-17 oocysts/10 L in the rainy season in 2008, with a mean value of 7 oocysts/10 L. Based on the investigation data, comprehensive risk assessment of Cryptosporidium infection was performed by considering different water intake routes as well as water consumption. Intakes of unboiled tapwater (including drinking and tooth-brushing and food and dish washing) and source water (through swimming in rivers) were estimated to be 2.59-25.9 and 0.32-0.74 L/year-person, respectively. The mortality due to Cryptosporidium infection for people in this region, excluding HIV-infected patients, was calculated as 0-0.0146 per 10(5) persons using a conditional probability formula. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used to quantify the risk of Cryptosporidium infection, for which uncertainty was analyzed. For people who consumed conventionally treated water, the DALYs due to Cryptosporidium infection were 6.51 per 10(5) (95% CI: 2.16 × 10(-5)-22.35 × 10(-5)) persons, which were higher than a risk judged acceptable by some (1.97 × 10(-5) DALYs per year), and the risk for those consuming ozone-treated water became 0.0689 × 10(-5) DALYs per year. The major risk of infection resulted from swimming in the river. This study provides a method to establish the risk of Cryptosporidium infection and optimize the scheme for reducing the risk effectively, which is useful for the modification of water quality standards based on cost utility analysis given use of DALYs.

  4. Quantitative modeling for risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams in southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Akio; Iwahori, Jun'ichiro; Vuddhakul, Varaporn; Charernjiratragul, Wilawan; Vose, David; Osaka, Ken; Shigematsu, Mika; Toyofuku, Hajime; Yamamoto, Shigeki; Nishibuchi, Mitsuaki; Kasuga, Fumiko

    2008-05-10

    A risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams (Anadara granosa) consumed in southern Thailand was conducted. This study estimated the prevalence and concentration of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in bloody clams at harvest and retail stages; and during this process, methods to detect the total and pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus were investigated. Consumption of bloody clams and cooking efficiency were studied using interviews and on-site observation of consumers. A beta-Poisson dose-response model was used to estimate probability of illness applying estimation methods for the most likely parameter values presented by USFDA. Microbial and behavioral data were analyzed by developing a stochastic model and the simulation gave a mean number of times a person would get ill with V. parahaemolyticus by consuming bloody clams at 5.6 x 10(-4)/person/year. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the fraction of people who did not boil the clams properly was the primary factor in increasing risk. This study serves as an example of how a microbiological risk assessment with limited data collection and international cooperation leads to valuable local insight.

  5. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in well water from a native community of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balderrama-Carmona, Ana Paola; Gortáres-Moroyoqui, Pablo; Álvarez-Valencia, Luis Humberto; Castro-Espinoza, Luciano; Balderas-Cortés, José de Jesús; Mondaca-Fernández, Iram; Chaidez-Quiroz, Cristóbal; Meza-Montenegro, María Mercedes

    2015-01-01

    Cryptosporidium and Giardia are gastrointestinal disease-causing organisms transmitted by the fecal-oral route, zoonotic and prevalent in all socioeconomic segments with greater emphasis in rural communities. The goal of this study was to assess the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis of Potam dwellers consuming drinking water from communal well water. To achieve the goal, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was carried out as follows: (a) identification of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts in well water samples by information collection rule method, (b) assessment of exposure to healthy Potam residents, (c) dose-response modelling, and (d) risk characterization using an exponential model. All well water samples tested were positive for Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The QMRA results indicate a mean of annual risks of 99:100 (0.99) for cryptosporidiosis and 1:1 (1.0) for giardiasis. The outcome of the present study may drive decision-makers to establish an educational and treatment program to reduce the incidence of parasite-borne intestinal infection in the Potam community, and to conduct risk analysis programs in other similar rural communities in Mexico.

  6. Caramel color in soft drinks and exposure to 4-methylimidazole: a quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Tyler J S; Wolfson, Julia A; Jiao, Ding; Crupain, Michael J; Rangan, Urvashi; Sapkota, Amir; Bleich, Sara N; Nachman, Keeve E

    2015-01-01

    Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI), a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California's Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day) carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York) in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions) and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L), lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day), lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4) and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years); Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases). 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing exposure to

  7. Caramel Color in Soft Drinks and Exposure to 4-Methylimidazole: A Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Tyler J. S.; Wolfson, Julia A.; Jiao, Ding; Crupain, Michael J.; Rangan, Urvashi; Sapkota, Amir; Bleich, Sara N.; Nachman, Keeve E.

    2015-01-01

    Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI), a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California’s Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day) carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York) in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions) and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L), lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day), lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4) and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years); Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases). 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing exposure

  8. Caramel color in soft drinks and exposure to 4-methylimidazole: a quantitative risk assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler J S Smith

    Full Text Available Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI, a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California's Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L, lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day, lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4 and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years; Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases. 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing

  9. A quantitative risk assessment for metals in surface water following the application of biosolids to grassland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Rachel; Peyton, Dara; Healy, Mark G; Fenton, Owen; Cummins, Enda

    2016-10-01

    During episodic rainfall events, land application of treated municipal sludge ('biosolids') may give rise to surface runoff of metals, which may be potentially harmful to human health if not fully treated in a water treatment plant (WTP). This study used surface runoff water quality data generated from a field-scale study in which three types of biosolids (anaerobically digested (AD), lime stabilised (LS), and thermally dried (TD)) were spread on micro-plots of land and subjected to three rainfall events at time intervals of 24, 48 and 360h following application. Making the assumption that this water directly entered abstraction waters for a WTP without any grassed buffer zone being present, accounting for stream dilution, and modelling various performance scenarios within the WTP, the aim of this research was to conduct a human health risk assessment of metals (Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, Cd and Cr), which may still be present in drinking water after the WTP. Different dose-response relationships were characterised for the different metals with reference to the lifetime average daily dose (LADD) and the Hazard Quotient (HQ). The results for the LADD show that child exposure concentrations were highest for Cu when the measured surface runoff concentrations from the LS biosolids treatment were used as input into the model. The results for the HQ showed that of all the scenarios considered, Cu had the highest HQ for children. However, values were below the threshold value of risk (HQ<0.01 - no existing risk). Under the conditions monitored, metal concentrations in the biosolids applied to grassland were not considered to result in a risk to human health in surface water systems.

  10. Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods: the FAO/WHO approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocourt, J; BenEmbarek, P; Toyofuku, H; Schlundt, J

    2003-04-01

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a very new and unique scientific approach able to link, for the first time, data from food (in the farm-to-fork continuum) and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of the impact of contaminated food on human public health. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have recently launched risk assessment studies of a number of pathogen-food commodity combinations (Salmonella in eggs and in broiler chickens, Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods, Campylobacter in broiler chickens, Vibrio in seafood) to be used to lower the risk associated with these food-borne diseases and ensure fair practices in the international trade of food. The FAO/WHO Listeria risk assessment was undertaken in part to determine how previously developed risk assessments done at the national level could be adapted or expanded to address concerns related to L. monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods at an international level. In addition, after initiation of the risk assessment, the risk assessors were asked by the Codex Committee on Food to consider three specific questions related to ready-to-eat foods in general, which are: (1). estimate the risk for consumers in different susceptible populations groups (elderly, infants, pregnant women and immunocompromised patients) relative to the general population; (2). estimate the risk for L. monocytogenes in foods that support growth and foods that do not support growth under specific storage and shelf-life conditions; (3). estimate the risk from L. monocytogenes in food when the number of organisms ranges from absence in 25 g to 1000 colonies forming units per gram or milliliter, or does not exceed specified levels at the point of consumption. To achieve these goals, new dose-response relationships and exposure assessments for ready-to-eat foods were developed. Preliminary data indicate that eliminating the

  11. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107......). All patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing a structured professional judgment model: the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scheme. After a follow-up period of 5.6 years, recidivism outcome were obtained from the Danish National Crime...... predictive of violent recidivism compared to static items. In sum, the findings support the use of structured professional judgment models of risk assessment and in particular the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. Findings regarding the importance of the (clinical) structured final risk judgment...

  12. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A., E-mail: chiu.weihsueh@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States); Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes.

  13. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for spray irrigation of dairy manure based on an empirical fate and transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burch, Tucker R; Spencer, Susan K.; Stokdyk, Joel; Kieke, Burney A; Larson, Rebecca A; Firnstahl, Aaron; Rule, Ana M; Borchardt, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. METHODS: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irri- gation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. RESULTS: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk.

  14. Risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1986-03-01

    The article deals with the calculation of risks, as applied to living near to a) a nuclear reactor or b) an industrial complex. The application of risk assessment techniques to the pressurised water reactor (PWR) is discussed with respect to: containment, frequencies of degraded core accidents, release of radioisotopes, consequences and risk to society, and uncertainties. The risk assessment for an industrial complex concerns the work of the Safety and Reliability Directorate for the chemical complex on Canvey Island. (U.K.).

  15. Quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in edible vegetable oils marketed in Shandong of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Dafeng; Xin, Chenglong; Li, Wei; Chen, Jindong; Li, Fenghua; Chu, Zunhua; Xiao, Peirui; Shao, Lijun

    2015-09-01

    This work studies on the quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in edible vegetable oils in Shandong, China. The concentrations of 15 PAHs in 242 samples were determined by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection. The results indicated that the mean concentration of 15 PAHs in oil samples was 54.37 μg kg(-1). Low molecular weight PAH compounds were the predominant contamination. Especially, the carcinogenic benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) was detected at a mean concentration of 1.28 μg kg(-1), which was lower than the limit of European Union and China. A preliminary evaluation of human health risk assessment for PAHs was accomplished using BaP toxic equivalency factors and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR). The ILCR values for children, adolescents, adults, and seniors were all larger than 1 × 10(-6), indicating a high potential carcinogenic risk on the dietary exposed populations.

  16. Quantitative risk assessment of human salmonellosis and listeriosis related to the consumption of raw milk in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, Federica; Bonilauri, Paolo; Albonetti, Sabrina; Amatiste, Simonetta; Arrigoni, Norma; Bianchi, Manila; Bertasi, Barbara; Bilei, Stefano; Bolzoni, Giuseppe; Cascone, Giuseppe; Comin, Damiano; Daminelli, Paolo; Decastelli, Lucia; Merialdi, Giuseppe; Mioni, Renzo; Peli, Angelo; Petruzzelli, Annalisa; Tonucci, Franco; Bonerba, Elisabetta; Serraino, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Two quantitative risk assessment (RA) models were developed to describe the risk of salmonellosis and listeriosis linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. Exposure assessment considered the official microbiological records monitoring raw milk samples from vending machines performed by the regional veterinary authorities from 2008 to 2011, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, and consumption preference. Two separate RA models were developed: one for the consumption of boiled milk and the other for the consumption of raw milk. The RA models predicted no human listeriosis cases per year either in the best or worst storage conditions and with or without boiling raw milk, whereas the annual estimated cases of salmonellosis depend on the dose-response relationships used in the model, the milk storage conditions, and consumer behavior in relation to boiling raw milk or not. For example, the estimated salmonellosis cases ranged from no expected cases, assuming that the entire population boiled milk before consumption, to a maximum of 980,128 cases, assuming that the entire population drank raw milk without boiling, in the worst milk storage conditions, and with the lowest dose-response model. The findings of this study clearly show how consumer behavior could affect the probability and number of salmonellosis cases and in general, the risk of illness. Hence, the proposed RA models emphasize yet again that boiling milk before drinking is a simple yet effective tool to protect consumers against the risk of illness inherent in the consumption of raw milk. The models may also offer risk managers a useful tool to identify or implement appropriate measures to control the risk of acquiring foodborne pathogens. Quantification of the risks associated with raw milk consumption is necessary from a public health perspective.

  17. Risks to birds traded for African traditional medicine: a quantitative assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivienne L Williams

    Full Text Available Few regional or continent-wide assessments of bird use for traditional medicine have been attempted anywhere in the world. Africa has the highest known diversity of bird species used for this purpose. This study assesses the vulnerability of 354 bird species used for traditional medicine in 25 African countries, from 205 genera, 70 families, and 25 orders. The orders most represented were Passeriformes (107 species, Falconiformes (45 species, and Coraciiformes (24 species, and the families Accipitridae (37 species, Ardeidae (15 species, and Bucerotidae (12 species. The Barn owl (Tyto alba was the most widely sold species (seven countries. The similarity of avifaunal orders traded is high (analogous to "morphospecies", and using Sørensen's index, which suggests opportunities for a common understanding of cultural factors driving demand. The highest similarity was between bird orders sold in markets of Benin vs. Burkina Faso (90%, but even bird orders sold in two geographically separated countries (Benin vs. South Africa and Nigeria vs. South Africa were 87% and 81% similar, respectively. Rabinowitz's "7 forms of rarity" model, used to group species according to commonness or rarity, indicated that 24% of traded bird species are very common, locally abundant in several habitats, and occur over a large geographical area, but 10% are rare, occur in low numbers in specific habitats, and over a small geographical area. The order with the highest proportion of rare species was the Musophagiformes. An analysis of species mass (as a proxy for size indicated that large and/or conspicuous species tend to be targeted by harvesters for the traditional medicine trade. Furthermore, based on cluster analyses for species groups of similar risk, vultures, hornbills, and other large avifauna, such as bustards, are most threatened by selective harvesting and should be prioritised for conservation action.

  18. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers--specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mataragas, M; Zwietering, M H; Skandamis, P N; Drosinos, E H

    2010-07-31

    The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required), support growth of pathogens (high initial pH=6.2-6.4 and water activity=0.98-0.99) and has a relatively long period of storage at chilled temperatures with a shelf life equal to 60 days based on manufacturer's instructions. Therefore, in case of post-process contamination, even with low number of cells, the microorganism is able to reach unacceptable levels at the time of consumption. The aim of this study was to conduct a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) on the risk of L. monocytogenes presence in RTE meat products. This may help risk managers to make decisions and apply control measures with ultimate objective the food safety assurance. Examples are given to illustrate the development of practical risk management strategies based on the results obtained from the QMRA model specifically developed for this pathogen/food product combination.

  19. Host cell proteins in biologics development: Identification, quantitation and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xing; Hunter, Alan K; Mozier, Ned M

    2009-06-15

    Host cell proteins (HCPs) are those produced or encoded by the organisms and unrelated to the intended recombinant product. Some are necessary for growth, survival, and normal cellular processing whereas others may be non-essential, simply carried along as baggage. Like the recombinant product, HCPs may also be modified by the host with a number of post-translational modifications. Regardless of the utility, or lack thereof, HCPs are undesirable in the final drug substance. Though commonly present in small quantities (parts per million expressed as nanograms per milligrams of the intended recombinant protein) much effort and cost is expended by industry to remove them. The purpose of this review is to summarize what is of relevance in regards to the biology, the impact of genomics and proteomics on HCP evaluation, the regulatory expectations, analytical approaches, and various methodologies to remove HCPs with bioprocessing. Historical data, bioinformatics approaches and industrial case study examples are provided. Finally, a proposal for a risk assessment tool is provided which brings these facets together and proposes a means for manufacturers to classify and organize a control strategy leading to meaningful product specifications. 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Epidemiological survey of quantitative ultrasound in risk assessment of falls in middle-aged and elderly people.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling-Chun Ou

    Full Text Available The risk assessment of falls is important, but still unsatisfactory and time-consuming. Our objective was to assess quantitative ultrasound (QUS in the risk assessment of falls. Our study was designed as epidemiological cross-sectional study occurring from March 2009 to February 2010 by community survey at a medical center. The participants were collected from systemic sample of 1,200 community-dwelling people (Male/Female = 524/676 40 years old and over in Yunlin County, Mid-Taiwan. Structural questionnaires including socioeconomic status, living status, smoking and drinking habits, exercise and medical history were completed. Quantitative ultrasound (QUS at the non-dominant distal radial area (QUS-R and the left calcaneal area (QUS-C were measured. The overall prevalence of falls was 19.8%. In men, the independently associated factors for falls were age (OR: 1.04; 95%CI: 1.01~1.06, fracture history (OR: 1.89; 95%CI: 1.12~3.19, osteoarthritis history (OR: 3.66; 95%CI: 1.15~11.64 and speed of sound (OR: 0.99; 95%CI: 0.99~1.00; p<0.05 by QUS-R. In women, the independently associated factors for falls were current drinking (OR: 3.54; 95%CI: 1.35∼9.31 and broadband ultrasound attenuation (OR: 0.98; 95%CI: 0.97~0.99; p<0.01 by QUS-C. The cutoffs at -2.5< T-score<-1 derived using QUS-R (OR: 2.85; 95%CI: 1.64~4.96; p<0.01 in men or T-score ≦-2.5 derived using QUS-C (OR: 2.72; 95%CI: 1.42~5.21; p<0.01 in women showed an independent association with falls. The lowest T-score derived using either QUS-R or QUS-C was also revealed as an independent factor for falls in both men (OR: 2.13; 95%CI: 1.03~4.43; p<0.05 and women (OR: 2.36; 95%CI: 1.13~4.91; p<0.05.Quantitative ultrasounds, measured either at the radial or calcaneal area, are convenient tools by which to assess the risk of falls in middle-aged and elderly people.

  1. Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction to Assess Response to Treatment of Bacterial Vaginosis and Risk of Preterm Birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramovici, Adi; Lobashevsky, Elena; Cliver, Suzanne P; Edwards, Rodney K; Hauth, John C; Biggio, Joseph R

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) bacterial load measurement is a valid method to assess response to treatment of bacterial vaginosis and risk of preterm birth in pregnant women. Secondary analysis by utilizing stored vaginal samples obtained during a previous randomized controlled trial studying the effect of antibiotics on preterm birth (PTB). All women had risk factors for PTB: (1) positive fetal fibronectin (n=146), (2) bacterial vaginosis (BV) and a prior PTB (n=43), or (3) BV and a prepregnancy weightbacterial loads were correlated with Nugent score and each of its specific bacterial components (all pbacterial load did not differ by treatment group (p=0.87). Posttreatment total bacterial load was significantly lower in the antibiotics group than the placebo group (pbacterial load decreased significantly posttreatment in the antibiotics group (pbacterial loads were not statistically significant. qPCR correlates with Nugent score and demonstrates decreased bacterial load after antibiotic treatment. Therefore, it is a valid method of vaginal flora assessment in pregnant women who are at high risk for PTB. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  2. Meta-analysis for quantitative microbiological risk assessments and benchmarking data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den H.M.W.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2012-01-01

    Meta-analysis studies are increasingly being conducted in the food microbiology area to quantitatively integrate the findings of many individual studies on specific questions or kinetic parameters of interest. Meta-analyses provide global estimates of parameters and quantify their variabilities, and

  3. A quantitative microbial risk assessment for meatborne Toxoplasma gondii infection in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Opsteegh, M.; Prickaerts, S.; Frankena, K.; Evers, E.G.

    2011-01-01

    Toxoplasma gondii is an important foodborne pathogen, and the cause of a high disease burden due to congenital toxoplasmosis in The Netherlands. The aim of this study was to quantify the relative contribution of sheep, beef and pork products to human T. gondii infections by Quantitative Microbial Ri

  4. Behaviour of individual spores of non proteolytic Clostridium botulinum as an element in quantitative risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smelt, J.P.; Stringer, S.C.; Brul, S.

    2013-01-01

    Botulism is a true food poisoning hazard. It is caused by a deadly neurotoxin produced in food by the spore forming organism Clostridium botulinum, which is found in soil all over the world. The frequency of botulism cases is rare, but each year a number of them occur. Ideally a quantitative microbi

  5. Quantitative risk assessment of Listeriosis due to consumption of raw milk

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objectives of this study were to estimate the risk of illnesses for raw milk consumers due to L. monocytogenes contamination in raw milk sold by permitted raw milk dealers, and the risk of listeriosis for people on farms who consume raw milk. Three scenarios were evaluated for raw milk sold by ...

  6. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Kriticos, D.J.; Baker, R.H.A.; Battisti, A.; Brunel, S.; Dupin, M.; Eyre, D.; Faccoli, M.; Ilieva, Z.; Kenis, M.; Knight, J.; Reynaud, P.; Yart, A.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no sui

  7. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Salmonella in dry fermented sausage (salami) in Southern Brazil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corbellini, Luis Gustavo; Costa, Eduardo de Freitas; Cardoso, Marisa

    2017-01-01

    Dry fermented sausage (salami) is a very popular ready-to-eat product in Southern Brazil, of which the raw materials can be contaminated with pathogens such as Salmonella. This product can put consumers at risk if a failure occurs during the manufacturing process. To investigate this risk...... model (MPRM) approach. A total of 405 scenarios were tested combining five scenarios for sausage fermentation, three maturation times (12, 15, and 24 days), nine scenarios for prevalence and concentrations of Salmonella on pork carcasses, and three scenarios for clustering of cells (homogeneous...... a decreased risk) was observed when 24 days of maturation is applied and or with good fermentation process. If a realistic heterogeneous distribution of bacteria over the sausages is assumed instead of homogeneous distribution, the estimated risk is larger. Although in general the mean risks found here were...

  8. Quantitative Risk Assessment for African Horse Sickness in Live Horses Exported from South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergeant, Evan S; Grewar, John D; Weyer, Camilla T; Guthrie, Alan J

    2016-01-01

    African horse sickness (AHS) is a severe, often fatal, arbovirus infection of horses, transmitted by Culicoides spp. midges. AHS occurs in most of sub-Saharan Africa and is a significant impediment to export of live horses from infected countries, such as South Africa. A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the probability of exporting an undetected AHS-infected horse through a vector protected pre-export quarantine facility, in accordance with OIE recommendations for trade from an infected country. The model also allows for additional risk management measures, including multiple PCR tests prior to and during pre-export quarantine and optionally during post-arrival quarantine, as well as for comparison of risk associated with exports from a demonstrated low-risk area for AHS and an area where AHS is endemic. If 1 million horses were exported from the low-risk area with no post-arrival quarantine we estimate the median number of infected horses to be 5.4 (95% prediction interval 0.5 to 41). This equates to an annual probability of 0.0016 (95% PI: 0.00015 to 0.012) assuming 300 horses exported per year. An additional PCR test while in vector-protected post-arrival quarantine reduced these probabilities by approximately 12-fold. Probabilities for horses exported from an area where AHS is endemic were approximately 15 to 17 times higher than for horses exported from the low-risk area under comparable scenarios. The probability of undetected AHS infection in horses exported from an infected country can be minimised by appropriate risk management measures. The final choice of risk management measures depends on the level of risk acceptable to the importing country.

  9. A Quantitative Ecological Risk Assessment of the Toxicological Risks from Exxon Valdez Subsurface Oil Residues to Sea Otters at Northern Knight Island, Prince William Sound, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell, Mark A.; Gentile, John H.; Johnson, Charles B.; Garshelis, David L.; Parker, Keith R.

    2010-01-01

    A comprehensive, quantitative risk assessment is presented of the toxicological risks from buried Exxon Valdez subsurface oil residues (SSOR) to a subpopulation of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) at Northern Knight Island (NKI) in Prince William Sound, Alaska, as it has been asserted that this subpopulation of sea otters may be experiencing adverse effects from the SSOR. The central questions in this study are: could the risk to NKI sea otters from exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in SSOR, as characterized in 2001–2003, result in individual health effects, and, if so, could that exposure cause subpopulation-level effects? We follow the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) risk paradigm by: (a) identifying potential routes of exposure to PAHs from SSOR; (b) developing a quantitative simulation model of exposures using the best available scientific information; (c) developing scenarios based on calculated probabilities of sea otter exposures to SSOR; (d) simulating exposures for 500,000 modeled sea otters and extracting the 99.9% quantile most highly exposed individuals; and (e) comparing projected exposures to chronic toxicity reference values. Results indicate that, even under conservative assumptions in the model, maximum-exposed sea otters would not receive a dose of PAHs sufficient to cause any health effects; consequently, no plausible toxicological risk exists from SSOR to the sea otter subpopulation at NKI. PMID:20862194

  10. Environmental Risks to Public Health in the United Arab Emirates: A Quantitative Assessment and Strategic Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farah, Zeinab S.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Environmental risks to health in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have shifted rapidly from infectious to noninfectious diseases as the nation has developed at an unprecedented rate. In response to public concerns over newly emerging environmental risks, the Environment Agency–Abu Dhabi commissioned a multidisciplinary environmental health strategic planning project. Objectives: In order to develop the environmental health strategic plan, we sought to quantify the illnesses and premature deaths in the UAE attributable to 14 environmental pollutant categories, prioritize these 14 risk factors, and identify interventions. Methods: We estimated the disease burden imposed by each risk factor using an attributable fraction approach, and we prioritized the risks using an empirically tested stakeholder engagement process. We then engaged government personnel, scientists, and other stakeholders to identify interventions. Results: The UAE’s environmental disease burden is low by global standards. Ambient air pollution is the leading contributor to premature mortality [~ 650 annual deaths; 95% confidence interval (CI): 140, 1,400]. Risk factors leading to > 10,000 annual health care facility visits included occupational exposures, indoor air pollution, drinking water contamination, seafood contamination, and ambient air pollution. Among the 14 risks considered, on average, outdoor air pollution was ranked by the stakeholders as the highest priority (mean rank, 1.4; interquartile range, 1–2) and indoor air pollution as the second-highest priority (mean rank 3.3; interquartile range, 2–4). The resulting strategic plan identified 216 potential interventions for reducing environmental risks to health. Conclusions: The strategic planning exercise described here provides a framework for systematically deciding how to invest public funds to maximize expected returns in environmental health, where returns are measured in terms of reductions in a population

  11. Quantitative Assessment of the Association between Genetic Variants in MicroRNAs and Colorectal Cancer Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Xu Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The associations between polymorphisms in microRNAs and the susceptibility of colorectal cancer (CRC were inconsistent in previous studies. This study aims to quantify the strength of the correlation between the four common polymorphisms among microRNAs (hsa-mir-146a rs2910164, hsa-mir-149 rs2292832, hsa-mir-196a2 rs11614913, and hsa-mir-499 rs3746444 and CRC risk. Methods. We searched PubMed, Web of Knowledge, and CNKI to find relevant studies. The combined odds ratio (OR with 95% confidence interval (95% CI was used to estimate the strength of the association in a fixed or random effect model. Results. 15 studies involving 5,486 CRC patients and 7,184 controls were included. Meta-analyses showed that rs3746444 had association with CRC risk in Caucasians (OR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.34–0.95. In the subgroup analysis, we found significant associations between rs2910164 and CRC in hospital based studies (OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.03–1.49. rs2292832 may be a high risk factor of CRC in population based studied (OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.08–1.38. Conclusion. This meta-analysis showed that rs2910164 and rs2292832 may increase the risk of CRC. However, rs11614913 polymorphism may reduce the risk of CRC. rs3746444 may have a decreased risk to CRC in Caucasians.

  12. [Quantitative risk assessment of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons dietary exposure from edible fats and oils in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Mengsi; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Lishi; Yan, Weixing

    2016-02-01

    To assess the quantitative risk of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) dietary exposure from edible fats and oils in China. One hundred samples of edible fats and oils were collected from the supermarkets and the farmers markets in 11 provinces of China from December in 2013 to May in 2014. Then they were tested for EU15+1 PAHs (16 PAHs were controlled in priority by European Food Safety Authority) by two test methods which were QuECHERS-GC-MS-MS and GPC-HPLC-FLD. Data of PAHs concentration and edible fats and oils consumption which were from Chinese National Nutrition and Health Survey in 2002 were combined to evaluate carcinogenic risk of PAHs in edible fats and oils by the method of margin of exposure (MOE). In this process, we divided the population into 6 groups, namely male adults (older than 18 years old), female adults (older than 18), male youths (13-17), female youths (13-17), school-agers (6-12) and preschoolers (2-5), and thought carcinogenicity as the critical toxicity end point of PAHs. Two quantitative risk assessment methods, i.e. point assessment and probability assessment, were used to evaluate the dietary exposure and MOEs. EU15+1 PAHs in one of 100 samples were not detected, other samples were polluted in different degrees; the detection rates were 3%-98% and the average contents were 0.26-3.26 μg/kg. The results of PAHs dietary exposure from both of point assessment and probability assessment were the same. The average exposures of PAH8 were as the following: male adults were 10.03 and (9.34 ± 12.61) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1)(The former was from point assessment and the latter from probability assessment, the same below), female adults were 9.95 and (9.60 ± 15.04) ng · kg(-1)·d (-1), male youths were 11.09 and (10.84 ± 16.54) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1), female youths were 10.06 and (9.58 ± 12.87) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1),school-agers were 15.29 and (15.62 ± 25.54) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1), preschoolers were 19.27 and (19.22 ± 28.91) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1). MOEs

  13. Detection of Legionella by quantitative-polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) for monitoring and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krøjgaard, Louise H.; Krogfelt, Karen A.; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jorgen

    2011-01-01

    Background: Culture and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays for the detection of Legionella were compared on samples from a residential area before and after two interventions. A total of 84 samples were collected from shower hoses and taps as first flush samples and at constant...... temperature. Samples were grouped according to the origin of the sample, a) circulation water b) water from empty apartments c) water from shower hoses. The aims were to investigate the usefulness of qPCR compared to culture for monitoring remedial actions for elimination of Legionella bacteria and as a tool...... for risk assessment. Results: In water collected from the apartments Legionella spp were detected by qPCR in the concentration range from LOQ to 9.6* 10(5)GU/L while L. pneumophila were detected in a range from LOQ to 6.8*10(5) GU/L. By culturing, the legionellae were detected in the range from below...

  14. Retrospective analysis of a listeria monocytogenes contamination episode in raw milk goat cheese using quantitative microbial risk assessment tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delhalle, L; Ellouze, M; Yde, M; Clinquart, A; Daube, G; Korsak, N

    2012-12-01

    In 2005, the Belgian authorities reported a Listeria monocytogenes contamination episode in cheese made from raw goat's milk. The presence of an asymptomatic shedder goat in the herd caused this contamination. On the basis of data collected at the time of the episode, a retrospective study was performed using an exposure assessment model covering the production chain from the milking of goats up to delivery of cheese to the market. Predictive microbiology models were used to simulate the growth of L. monocytogenes during the cheese process in relation with temperature, pH, and water activity. The model showed significant growth of L. monocytogenes during chilling and storage of the milk collected the day before the cheese production (median increase of 2.2 log CFU/ml) and during the addition of starter and rennet to milk (median increase of 1.2 log CFU/ml). The L. monocytogenes concentration in the fresh unripened cheese was estimated to be 3.8 log CFU/g (median). This result is consistent with the number of L. monocytogenes in the fresh cheese (3.6 log CFU/g) reported during the cheese contamination episode. A variance-based method sensitivity analysis identified the most important factors impacting the cheese contamination, and a scenario analysis then evaluated several options for risk mitigation. Thus, by using quantitative microbial risk assessment tools, this study provides reliable information to identify and control critical steps in a local production chain of cheese made from raw goat's milk.

  15. Quantitative Assessment of Current Risks to Harlequin Ducks in Prince William Sound, Alaska, from the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell, Mark A.; Gentile, John H.; Parker, Keith R.; Murphy, Stephen M.; Day, Robert H.; Bence, A. Edward; Neff, Jerry M.; Wiens, John A.

    2012-01-01

    Harlequin Ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) were adversely affected by the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, and some have suggested effects continue two decades later. We present an ecological risk assessment evaluating quantitatively whether PWS seaducks continue to be at-risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in residual Exxon Valdez oil. Potential pathways for PAH exposures are identified for initially oiled and never-oiled reference sites. Some potential pathways are implausible (e.g., a seaduck excavating subsurface oil residues), whereas other pathways warrant quantification. We used data on PAH concentrations in PWS prey species, sediments, and seawater collected during 2001–2008 to develop a stochastic individual-based model projecting assimilated doses to seaducks. We simulated exposures to 500,000 individuals in each of eight age/gender classes, capturing the variability within a population of seaducks living in PWS. Doses to the maximum-exposed individuals are ∼400–4,000 times lower than chronic toxicity reference values established using USEPA protocols for seaducks. These exposures are so low that no individual-level effects are plausible, even within a simulated population that is orders-of-magnitude larger than exists in PWS. We conclude that toxicological risks to PWS seaducks from residual Exxon Valdez oil two decades later are essentially non-existent. PMID:23723680

  16. Quantitative cancer risk assessment for ethylene oxide inhalation in occupational settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez-Flores, Ciriaco; Sielken, Robert L; Teta, M Jane

    2011-10-01

    The estimated occupational ethylene oxide (EO) exposure concentrations corresponding to specified extra risks are calculated for lymphoid mortality as the most appropriate endpoint, despite the lack of a statistically significant exposure-response relationship. These estimated concentrations are for occupational exposures--40 years of occupational inhalation exposure to EO from age 20 to age 60 years. The estimated occupational inhalation exposure concentrations (ppm) corresponding to specified extra risks of lymphoid mortality to age 70 years in a population of male and female EO workers are based on Cox proportional hazards models of the most recent updated epidemiology cohort mortality studies of EO workers and a standard life-table calculation. An occupational exposure at an inhalation concentration of 2.77 ppm EO is estimated to result in an extra risk of lymphoid mortality of 4 in 10,000 (0.0004) in the combined worker population of men and women from the two studies. The corresponding estimated concentration decreases slightly to 2.27 ppm when based on only the men in the updated cohorts combined. The difference in these estimates reflects the difference between combining all of the available data or focusing on only the men and excluding the women who did not show an increase in lymphoid mortality with EO inhalation exposure. The results of sensitivity analyses using other mortality endpoints (all lymphohematopoietic tissue cancers, leukemia) support the choice of lymphoid tumor mortality for estimation of extra risk.

  17. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen...

  18. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers - specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products

    OpenAIRE

    Mataragas, M.; Zwietering, M. H.; Skandamis, P. N.; Drosinos, E. H.

    2010-01-01

    The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required), support growth of pathogens (high initial pH = 6.2–6.4 and water activity = 0.98–0.99) and has a relatively long period of storage at chilled temperatures with a shelf life equal to 60 days based o...

  19. Quantitative cancer risk assessment for occupational exposures to asphalt fumes during built-up roofing asphalt (BURA) operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhomberg, Lorenz R; Mayfield, David B; Goodman, Julie E; Butler, Eric L; Nascarella, Marc A; Williams, Daniel R

    2015-01-01

    The International Agency for Research on Cancer qualitatively characterized occupational exposure to oxidized bitumen emissions during roofing as probably carcinogenic to humans (Group 2A). We examine chemistry, exposure, epidemiology and animal toxicity data to explore quantitative risks for roofing workers applying built-up roofing asphalt (BURA). Epidemiology studies do not consistently report elevated risks, and generally do not have sufficient exposure information or adequately control for confounders, precluding their use for dose-response analysis. Dermal carcinogenicity bioassays using mice report increased tumor incidence with single high doses. In order to quantify potential cancer risks, we develop time-to-tumor model methods [consistent with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) dose-response analysis and mixtures guidelines] using the dose-time-response shape of concurrent exposures to benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) as concurrent controls (which had several exposure levels) to infer presumed parallel dose-time-response curves for BURA-fume condensate. We compare EPA relative potency factor approaches, based on observed relative potency of BURA to B[a]P in similar experiments, and direct observation of the inferred BURA dose-time-response (scaled to humans) as means for characterizing a dermal unit risk factor. We apply similar approaches to limited data on asphalt-fume inhalation and respiratory cancers in rats. We also develop a method for adjusting potency estimates for asphalts that vary in composition using measured fluorescence. Overall, the various methods indicate that cancer risks to roofers from both dermal and inhalation exposure to BURA are within a range typically deemed acceptable within regulatory frameworks. The approaches developed may be useful in assessing carcinogenic potency of other complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic compounds.

  20. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinet, Christelle; Kehlenbeck, Hella; Kriticos, Darren J; Baker, Richard H A; Battisti, Andrea; Brunel, Sarah; Dupin, Maxime; Eyre, Dominic; Faccoli, Massimo; Ilieva, Zhenya; Kenis, Marc; Knight, Jon; Reynaud, Philippe; Yart, Annie; van der Werf, Wopke

    2012-01-01

    Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens). Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  1. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christelle Robinet

    Full Text Available Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens. Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  2. Quantitative assessment of common genetic variants on FOXE1 and differentiated thyroid cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongling Zhu

    Full Text Available Forkhead box E1 encodes the transcription factor FOXE1 (or TTF-2, which together with Homeobox protein NKX2-1, PAX8 and HHEX, are pivotal proteins required for thyroid gland formation, differentiation and function. Recently, genome-wide association studies have identified FOXE1 as a thyroid cancer (TC susceptibility gene in populations of European descent. After that, a number of studies reported that the rs965513, rs1867277, and rs71369530 polymorphism in FOXE1 has been implicated in TC risk. However, the causal variants remain unknown. To derive a more precise estimation of the relationship, a meta-analysis of 9,828 TC cases and 109,995 controls from 14 case-control studies was performed. Overall, significant results were observed for rs965513 (OR=1.71, 95% CI: 1.59-1.85, P<10(-5, rs1867277 (OR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.51-1.78, P<10(-5 and rs71369530 (OR=2.01, 95% CI: 1.66-2.44, P<10(-5 polymorphism. In the subgroup analysis by ethnicity, we found that rs965513 polymorphism confer high risk for Caucasians with per-allele OR of 1.80 (95% CI: 1.69-1.92, P<10(-5 compared to East Asians of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.09-1.67, P=0.006. There was strong evidence of heterogeneity, which largely disappeared after stratification by ethnicity. In the subgroup analysis by sample size, and study design, significantly increased risks were found for the polymorphism. In conclusion, this meta-analysis demonstrated that common variations of FOXE1 are a risk factor associated with increased TC susceptibility.

  3. Quantitative assessment of the influence of paraoxonase 1 activity and coronary heart disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mingsong; Lang, Xilong; Cui, Shitao; Zou, Liangjian; Cao, Jia; Wang, Sheng; Wu, Xintian

    2012-06-01

    Human paraoxonase 1 (PON1) is a calcium-dependent high-density lipoprotein associated ester hydrolase that has attracted considerable attention as a candidate factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) based on its function as a key factor in lipoprotein catabolism pathways. This meta-analysis aimed to clarify the inconsistency of published studies and to establish a comprehensive picture of the relationship between PON1 activity and CHD susceptibility. A systematic search was performed from PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and CNKI databases. Ratio of means (RoM) between case and control and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model. The source of heterogeneity was explored by subgroup analysis and meta-regression. We identified 47 eligible studies including a total of 9853 CHD cases and 11,408 controls. The pooled analysis showed that CHD patients had a 19% lower PON1 activity than did the controls (RoM=0.81; 95% CI: 0.74-0.89, pPON1 activity associated with CHD risk was observed in almost all subgroup analysis according to ethnicity, sample size, study design, mean age of cases, source, and type of control. Decreased PON1 activity may act as a risk factor for the development of CHD. Progressive decrease in serum PON1 activity may exist for an individual with severe disease. However, larger studies using a prospective approach are needed to confirm our results.

  4. Quantitative ecological risk assessment of inhabitants exposed to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in terrestrial soils of King George Island, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongpiachan, S.; Hattayanone, M.; Pinyakong, O.; Viyakarn, V.; Chavanich, S. A.; Bo, C.; Khumsup, C.; Kittikoon, I.; Hirunyatrakul, P.

    2017-03-01

    This study aims to conduct a quantitative ecological risk assessment of human exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in terrestrial soils of King George Island, Antarctica. Generally, the average PAH concentrations detected in King George Terrestrial Soils (KGS) were appreciably lower than those of World Marine Sediments (WMS) and World Terrestrial Soils (WTS), highlighting the fact that Antarctica is one of the most pristine continents in the world. The total concentrations of twelve probably carcinogenic PAHs (ΣPAHs: a sum of Phe, An, Fluo, Pyr, B[a]A, Chry, B[b]F, B[k]F, B[a]P, Ind, D[a,h]A and B[g,h,i]P) were 3.21 ± 1.62 ng g-1, 5749 ± 4576 ng g-1, and 257,496 ± 291,268 ng g-1, for KGS, WMS and WTS, respectively. In spite of the fact that KGS has extremely low ΣPAHs in comparison with others, the percentage contribution of Phe is exceedingly high with the value of 50%. By assuming that incidental ingestion and dermal contact are two major exposure pathways responsible for the adverse human health effects, the cancer and non-cancer risks from environmental exposure to PAHs were carefully evaluated based on the ;Role of the Baseline Risk Assessment in Superfund Remedy Selection Decisions; memorandum provided by US-EPA. The logarithms of cancer risk levels of PAH contents in KGS varied from -11.1 to -7.18 with an average of -7.96 ± 7.73, which is 1790 times and 80,176 times lower than that of WMS and WTS, respectively. All cancer risk levels of PAH concentrations observed in KGS are significantly (p < 0.001) lower than those of WMS and WTS. Despite the Comandante Ferraz Antarctic Station fire occurred in February 25th, 2012, both the cancer and non-cancer risks of environmental exposure to PAHs were found in ;acceptable level;.

  5. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  6. Quantitative risk assessment of Campylobacter spp. in poultry based meat preparations as one of the factors to support the development of risk-based microbiological criteria in Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uyttendaele, M; Baert, K; Ghafir, Y; Daube, G; De Zutter, L; Herman, L; Dierick, K; Pierard, D; Dubois, J J; Horion, B; Debevere, J

    2006-09-01

    The objective of this study was to do an exercise in risk assessment on Campylobacter spp. for poultry based meat preparations in Belgium. This risk assessment was undertaken on the demand of the competent national authorities as one of the supportive factors to define risk-based microbiological criteria. The quantitative risk assessment model follows a retail to table approach and is divided in different modules. The contamination of raw chicken meat products (CMPs) was represented by a normal distribution of the natural logarithm of the concentration of Campylobacter spp. (ln[Camp]) in raw CMPs based on data from surveillance programs in Belgium. To analyse the relative impact of reducing the risk of campylobacteriosis associated with a decrease in the Campylobacter contamination level in these types of food products, the model was run for different means and standard deviations of the normal distribution of the ln[Camp] in raw CMPs. The limitation in data for the local situation in Belgium and on this particular product and more precisely the semi-quantitative nature of concentration of Campylobacter spp. due to presence/absence testing, was identified as an important information gap. Also the knowledge on the dose-response relationship of Campylobacter spp. was limited, and therefore three different approaches of dose-response modelling were compared. Two approaches (1 and 2), derived from the same study, showed that the reduction of the mean of the distribution representing the ln[Camp] in raw CMPs is the best approach to reduce the risk of Campylobacter spp. in CMPs. However, for the simulated exposure and approach 3 it was observed that the reduction of the standard deviation is the most appropriate technique to lower the risk of campylobacteriosis. Since the dose-response models used in approach 1 and 2 are based on limited data and the reduction of the mean corresponds with a complete shift of the contamination level of raw CMPs, demanding high efforts

  7. Quantitative Risk - Phase 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-03

    Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for...OF PAGES 88 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT unclassified b. ABSTRACT unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev...Gerencia de Proyectos , 24-25 October 2003 261. Mehdizadeh, R., “Dynamic and multi-perspective risk management of construction projects using tailor

  8. Progress and perspectives of quantitative structure-activity relationships used for ecological risk assessment of toxic organic compounds

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN JingWen; LI XueHua; YU HaiYing; WANG YaNan; QIAO XianLiang

    2008-01-01

    Structure-activity relationship (SAR) and quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR), collec-tively referred to as (Q)SARs, play an important role in ecological risk assessment (ERA) of organic chemicals. (Q)SARs can fill the data gap for physical-chemical, environmental behavioral and ecotoxicological parameters of organic compounds; they can decrease experimental expenses and reduce the extent of experimental testing (especially animal testing); they can also be used to assess the uncertainty of the experimental data. With the development for several decades, (Q)SARs in envi-ronmental sciences show three features: application orientation, multidisciplinary integration, and in-telligence. Progress of (Q)SAR technology for ERA of toxic organic compounds, including endpoint selection and mathematic methods for establishing simple, transparent, easily interpretable and portable (Q)SAR models, is reviewed. The recent development on defining application domains and diagnosing outliers is summarized. Model characterization with respect to goodness-of-fit, stability and predictive power is specially presented. The purpose of the review is to promote the development of (Q)SARs orientated to ERA of organic chemicals.

  9. Progress and perspectives of quantitative structure-activity relationships used for ecological risk assessment of toxic organic compounds

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Structure-activity relationship (SAR) and quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR), collec- tively referred to as (Q)SARs, play an important role in ecological risk assessment (ERA) of organic chemicals. (Q)SARs can fill the data gap for physical-chemical, environmental behavioral and ecotoxicological parameters of organic compounds; they can decrease experimental expenses and reduce the extent of experimental testing (especially animal testing); they can also be used to assess the uncertainty of the experimental data. With the development for several decades, (Q)SARs in envi- ronmental sciences show three features: application orientation, multidisciplinary integration, and in- telligence. Progress of (Q)SAR technology for ERA of toxic organic compounds, including endpoint selection and mathematic methods for establishing simple, transparent, easily interpretable and portable (Q)SAR models, is reviewed. The recent development on defining application domains and diagnosing outliers is summarized. Model characterization with respect to goodness-of-fit, stability and predictive power is specially presented. The purpose of the review is to promote the development of (Q)SARs orientated to ERA of organic chemicals.

  10. Potential application of quantitative microbiological risk assessment techniques to an aseptic-UHT process in the food industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2013-04-01

    Aseptic ultra-high-temperature (UHT)-type processed food products (e.g., milk or soup) are ready to eat products which are consumed extensively globally due to a combination of their comparative high quality and long shelf life, with no cold chain or other preservation requirements. Due to the inherent microbial vulnerability of aseptic-UHT product formulations, the safety and stability-related performance objectives (POs) required at the end of the manufacturing process are the most demanding found in the food industry. The key determinants to achieving sterility, and which also differentiates aseptic-UHT from in-pack sterilised products, are the challenges associated with the processes of aseptic filling and sealing. This is a complex process that has traditionally been run using deterministic or empirical process settings. Quantifying the risk of microbial contamination and recontamination along the aseptic-UHT process, using the scientifically based process quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), offers the possibility to improve on the currently tolerable sterility failure rate (i.e., 1 defect per 10,000 units). In addition, benefits of applying QMRA are (i) to implement process settings in a transparent and scientific manner; (ii) to develop a uniform common structure whatever the production line, leading to a harmonisation of these process settings, and; (iii) to bring elements of a cost-benefit analysis of the management measures. The objective of this article is to explore how QMRA techniques and risk management metrics may be applied to aseptic-UHT-type processed food products. In particular, the aseptic-UHT process should benefit from a number of novel mathematical and statistical concepts that have been developed in the field of QMRA. Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian inference and sensitivity analysis, should help in assessing the compliance with safety and stability-related POs set at the end of the manufacturing

  11. A Generic Quantitative Risk Assessment Framework for the Entry of Bat-Borne Zoonotic Viruses into the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horigan, Verity; Gale, Paul; Kosmider, Rowena D.; Breed, Andrew C.; Snary, Emma L.

    2016-01-01

    Bat-borne viruses have been linked to a number of zoonotic diseases; in 2014 there have been human cases of Nipah virus (NiV) in Bangladesh and Ebola virus in West and Central Africa. Here we describe a model designed to provide initial quantitative predictions of the risk of entry of such viruses to European Union (EU) Member States (MSs) through four routes: human travel, legal trade (e.g. fruit and animal products), live animal movements and illegal importation of bushmeat. The model utilises available datasets to assess the movement via these routes between individual countries of the world and EU MSs. These data are combined with virus specific data to assess the relative risk of entry between EU MSs. As a case study, the model was parameterised for NiV. Scenario analyses showed that the selection of exporting countries with NiV and potentially contaminated trade products were essential to the accuracy of all model outputs. Uncertainty analyses of other model parameters identified that the model expected number of years to an introduction event within the EU was highly susceptible to the prevalence of NiV in bats. The relative rankings of the MSs and routes, however, were more robust. The UK, the Netherlands and Germany were consistently the most likely points of entry and the ranking of most MSs varied by no more than three places (maximum variation five places). Legal trade was consistently the most likely route of entry, only falling below human travel when the estimate of the prevalence of NiV in bats was particularly low. Any model-based calculation is dependent on the data available to feed into the model and there are distinct gaps in our knowledge, particularly in regard to various pathogen/virus as well as host/bat characteristics. However, the strengths of this model lie in the provision of relative comparisons of risk among routes and MSs. The potential for expansion of the model to include other routes and viruses and the possibility of rapid

  12. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157 : H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franz, E.; Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.

    2010-01-01

    Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green

  13. Effects of a 20 year rain event: a quantitative microbial risk assessment of a case of contaminated bathing water in Copenhagen, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja; Erichsen, A. C.; Mark, O.

    2013-01-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) often lack data on water quality leading to great uncertainty in the QMRA because of the many assumptions. The quantity of waste water contamination was estimated and included in a QMRA on an extreme rain event leading to combined sewer overflow (CS...

  14. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157 : H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franz, E.; Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.

    2010-01-01

    Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green

  15. IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment I. Methods and metrics for defining exposure-response relationships and points of departure (PoDs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report summarizes the discussion, conclusions, and points of consensus of the IWGT Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (QWG) based on a meeting in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil October 31–November 2, 2013. Topics addressed incl...

  16. Adenovirus-associated health risks for recreational activities in a multi-use coastal watershed based on site-specific quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Arti; McBride, Graham; Wuertz, Stefan

    2013-10-15

    We used site-specific quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to assess the probability of adenovirus illness for three groups of swimmers: adults with primary contact, children with primary contact, and secondary contact regardless of age. Human enteroviruses and adenoviruses were monitored by qPCR in a multi-use watershed and Adenovirus type 40/41 was detected in 11% of 73 samples, ranging from 147 to 4117 genomes per liter. Enterovirus was detected only once (32 genomes per liter). Seven of eight virus detections occurred when E. coli concentrations were below the single sample maximum water quality criterion for contact recreation, and five of eight virus detections occurred when fecal coliforms were below the corresponding criterion. We employed dose-harmonization to convert viral genome measurements to TCID50 values needed for dose-response curves. The three scenarios considered different amounts of water ingestion and Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for the variability associated with the doses. The mean illness risk in children based on adenovirus measurements obtained over 11 months was estimated to be 3.5%, which is below the 3.6% risk considered tolerable by the current United States EPA recreational criteria for gastrointestinal illnesses (GI). The mean risks of GI illness for adults and secondary contact were 1.9% and 1.0%, respectively. These risks changed appreciably when different distributions were fitted to the data as determined by Monte Carlo simulations. In general, risk was at a maximum for the log-logistic distribution and lowest for the hockey stick distribution in all three selected scenarios. Also, under default assumptions, the risk was lowered considerably when assuming that only a small proportion of Adenovirus 40/41 (3%) was as infectious as Adenovirus type 4, compared to the assumption that all genomes were Adenovirus 4. In conclusion, site-specific QMRA on water-borne adenoviruses in this watershed provided a similar

  17. Assessing interventions by quantitative risk assessment tools to reduce the risk of human salmonellosis from fresh minced pork meat in Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delhalle, L; Saegerman, C; Messens, W; Farnir, F; Korsak, N; Van der Stede, Y; Daube, G

    2009-11-01

    The risk of human salmonellosis through the consumption of minced pork meat in Belgium was assessed via a modular risk model covering pork meat production from lairage to human consumption. The main goal of the model was to give concrete options to reduce effectively the risk of human salmonellosis through the consumption of minced pork meat. These options (scenarios) were elaborated with reference to the international situation and the literature to give concrete and realistic possibilities for improving the microbiological quality of pork meat and to reduce the number of human salmonellosis cases per year in Belgium. The model estimates 15,376 cases of human salmonellosis per year in Belgium due to the consumption of minced pork meat. The results of the scenarios showed that the risk of human salmonellosis could be significantly reduced by efforts all along the pork meat production chain but also by efforts made by consumers. The responsibility of food business operators for the pork meat production chain is high in relation to the microbiological quality of meat delivery, especially at the slaughterhouse. Consumers also need to be aware of good hygiene practices during preparation of the meat at home. Cross-contamination with raw food can be avoided by changing the habits and the behavior of the household cook. The results of these scenarios would be useful for the food business operators involved in the pork meat chain and for public health authorities.

  18. Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

    CERN Document Server

    Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling...

  19. Studying the effects of POs and MCs on the Salmonella ALOP with a quantitative risk assessment model for beef production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuominen, Pirkko; Ranta, Jukka; Maijala, Riitta

    2007-08-15

    The Finnish Salmonella Control Programme and the special guarantees (SG) of import concerning Salmonella in the beef production chain were examined within the risk analysis framework. The appropriate level of protection (ALOP de facto since not referred to as ALOP in regulation), performance objectives (PO), and microbiological criteria (MC) were identified along the beef production chain. A quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) model using the Bayesian probabilistic method was developed for the beef chain to evaluate the capability of different POs to contribute to the ALOP. The influence of SGs was studied as an intervention protecting Finnish consumers. The QMRA made it possible to translate an ALOP without a stated food safety objective (FSO) to POs when implemented for both ready-to-eat (RTE) and non-RTE products. According to the results, the Finnish ALOP de facto for beef, beef preparations and products (10 human Salmonella cases/100,000) was reached in all of the years 1996-2004. However, if the prevalence at the slaughter, domestic cut beef, and retail levels would increase to the level of POs set (maximum 1%), the ALOP de facto would be exceeded by a factor of roughly two. On the other hand, the zero tolerance applied to MCs would keep the true Salmonella prevalence at production steps with POs clearly below 1%, and the ALOP would then be achievable. The influence of SGs on the total exposure was so small (average 0.1% added to the total prevalence of beef-derived foods at retail) that their relevance may be doubted with the current amount and Salmonella prevalence in beef-derived imports. On the other hand, a change in import profile could increase the protective effect of the SGs. Although practical follow-up has to be carried out as apparent prevalences, the objectives and criteria should be estimated as true prevalences and incidences with quantified uncertainties in order to achieve a sound, transparent scientific-based understanding of

  20. Enrichment followed by quantitative PCR both for rapid detection and as a tool for quantitative risk assessment of food-borne thermotolerant campylobacters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josefsen, M H; Jacobsen, N R; Hoorfar, J

    2004-06-01

    As part of a large international project for standardization of PCR (Food-PCR; www.pcr.dk), a multiplex, multiplatform, ready-to-go enrichment followed by a real-time PCR method, including an internal amplification control, was developed for detection of food-borne thermotolerant campylobacters in chickens. Chicken rinse samples were enriched in Bolton broth for 20 h, a simple and rapid (1-h) resin-based DNA extraction was performed, and DNA samples were then tested with two instrument platforms: ABI-PRISM 7700 and RotorGene 3000. The method was validated against an International Standard Organization (ISO)-based culture method by testing low, medium, and high levels of 12 spiked and 66 unspiked, presumably naturally contaminated, chicken rinse samples. In the RotorGene, a positive PCR response was detected in 40 samples of the 66. This was in complete agreement with the enriched ISO culture. The ABI-PRISM 7700 missed one culture-positive sample. Positive samples contained 10(2) to 10(7) CFU/ml after enrichment in Bolton broth. In the enriched samples a detection probability of 95% was obtained at levels of 1 x 10(3) and 2 x 10(3) CFU/ml in the RotorGene and ABI-PRISM, respectively. The amplification efficiency in both platforms was 90%, although the linear range of amplification of purified genomic DNA was 1.5 x 10(1) to 1 x 10(7) (R(2) = 1.00) for the RotorGene and 10(3) to 10(7) (R(2) = 0.99) for the ABI-PRISM. In RotorGene and ABI-PRISM the levels of precision of detection as determined by standard deviation (coefficients of variation) of 6-carboxyfluorescein (FAM) threshold cycle (Ct) values were 0.184 to 0.417 (0.65 to 2.57%) and 0.119 to 0.421 (0.59 to 1.82%), respectively. The results showed a correlation (R(2)) of 0.94 between the target FAM Ct values and CFU per milliliter of enriched naturally contaminated chicken samples, which indicates PCR's additional potential as a tool for quantitative risk assessment. Signal from the internal amplification control

  1. Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of norovirus from wastewater irrigated vegetables in Ghana using genome copies and fecal indicator ratio conversion for estimating exposure dose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Sampson, Angelina; Amponsah, Samuel K.

    2017-01-01

    The need to replace the commonly applied fecal indicator conversions ratio (an assumption of 1:10− 5 virus to fecal indicator organism) in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) with models based on quantitative data on the virus of interest has gained prominence due to the different...... physical and environmental factors that might influence the reliability of using indicator organisms in microbial risk assessment. The challenges facing analytical studies on virus enumeration (genome copies or particles) have contributed to the already existing lack of data in QMRA modelling. This study...... to estimate the norovirus count. In all scenarios of using different water sources, the application of the fecal indicator conversion ratio underestimated the norovirus disease burden, measured by the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), when compared to results using the genome copies norovirus data...

  2. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) shows increased public health risk associated with exposure to river water under conditions of riverbed sediment resuspension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abia, Akebe Luther King; Ubomba-Jaswa, Eunice; Genthe, Bettina; Momba, Maggy Ndombo Benteke

    2016-10-01

    Although higher microbial concentrations have been reported in sediments than in the overlying water column, most quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) studies have not clearly indicated the contribution of sediment-borne pathogens to estimated risks. Thus, the present study aimed at determining the public health risk associated with exposure to pathogenic bacteria in polluted river water under undisturbed conditions and conditions of sediment resuspension in the Apies River, Gauteng, South Africa. Microbial pathogens were isolated and identified using culture and molecular methods. The beta-Poisson dose-response model was used to estimate the probability of infection (Pi) with the various pathogens, following accidental/intentional ingestion of 1mL or 100mL (or 50mL) of untreated river water. Mean wet season Escherichia coli counts ranged between 5.8E+01 and 8.8E+04MPN/100mL (water column) and between 2.40E+03 and 1.28E+05MPN/100mL (sediments). Mean dry season E. coli counts ranged between 5.11E+00 and 3.40E+03MPN/100mL (water column) and between 5.09E+00 and 6.30E+03MPN/100mL (sediments). Overall (water and sediments) Vibrio cholerae was the most detected pathogen (58.8%) followed by Salmonella spp. (23.9%) and Shigella (10.1%). Ingestion of 1mL of river water could lead to 0%-4% and 1%-74% Pi with E. coli during the dry and wet season, respectively. During the dry season, the Pi with V. cholerae, Salmonella spp. and Shigella spp. were 0%-1.39%, 0%-4.11% and 0%-0.16% respectively, depending on volume of water ingested. The risks of infections with all microorganisms increased during the wet season. A 2-log increase in water E. coli count following sediments disturbance led to approximately 10 times higher Pi with E. coli than when sediments were undisturbed. Therefore, the use of the untreated water from the Apies River for drinking, household purposes or recreational activities poses a potential health risk to the users of the river.

  3. A quantitative assessment of the risk of transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy by tallow-based calf milk-replacer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry; Hostrup-Pedersen, J.

    2004-01-01

    A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to assess the risk of BSE transmission to calves by calf milk-replacer (CMR). We assumed that any BSE infectivity in the CMR would be associated with the allowable levels of impurities in tallow used to manufacture the milk-replacer. Simulations used...

  4. Comparative measurement and quantitative risk assessment of alcohol consumption through wastewater-based epidemiology: An international study in 20 cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryu, Yeonsuk; Barceló, Damià; Barron, Leon P.

    2016-01-01

    consumption biomarker, ethyl sulfate (EtS) was determined by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. The EtS concentrations were used for estimation of per capita alcohol consumption in each city, which was further compared with international reports and applied for risk assessment by MOE......), and reports the application of these data for the risk assessment of alcohol on a population scale using the margin of exposure (MOE) approach. Raw 24-h composite wastewater samples were collected over a one-week period from 20 cities following a common protocol. For each sample a specific and stable alcohol...... revealed geographical differences in the level and pattern of actual alcohol consumption at an inter-city level. All the sampled cities were in the "high risk" category (MOE....

  5. Groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk assessment of porous aquifers to nitrate: Modifying the DRASTIC method using quantitative parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazakis, Nerantzis; Voudouris, Konstantinos S.

    2015-06-01

    In the present study the DRASTIC method was modified to estimate vulnerability and pollution risk of porous aquifers to nitrate. The qualitative parameters of aquifer type, soil and impact of the vadose zone were replaced with the quantitative parameters of aquifer thickness, nitrogen losses from soil and hydraulic resistance. Nitrogen losses from soil were estimated based on climatic, soil and topographic data using indices produced by the GLEAMS model. Additionally, the class range of each parameter and the final index were modified using nitrate concentration correlation with four grading methods (natural breaks, equal interval, quantile and geometrical intervals). For this reason, seventy-seven (77) groundwater samples were collected and analyzed for nitrate. Land uses were added to estimate the pollution risk to nitrates. The two new methods, DRASTIC-PA and DRASTIC-PAN, were then applied in the porous aquifer of Anthemountas basin together with the initial versions of DRASTIC and the LOSN-PN index. The two modified methods displayed the highest correlations with nitrate concentrations. The two new methods provided higher discretisation of the vulnerability and pollution risk, whereas the high variance of the (ANOVA) F statistic confirmed the increase of the average concentrations of NO3-, increasing from low to high between the vulnerability and pollution risk classes. The importance of the parameters of hydraulic resistance of the vadose zone, aquifer thickness and land use was confirmed by single-parameter sensitivity analysis.

  6. Exploring probabilistic tools for the development of a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of hydro-meteorological hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumpano, V.; Hussin, H. Y.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    Mass-movements and floods are hydro-meteorological hazards that can have catastrophic effects on communities living in mountainous areas prone to these disastrous events. Environmental, climate and socio-economic changes are expected to affect the tempo-spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe. These changes and their effects on the occurrence of future hazards need to be analyzed and modeled using probabilistic hazard and risk assessment methods in order to assist stakeholders in disaster management strategies and policy making. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) using probabilistic methods can further calculate damage and losses to multi-hazards and determine the uncertainties related to all the probabilistic components of the hazard and the vulnerability of the elements at risk. Therefore, in order to develop an effective platform that can quantitatively calculate the risk of mass-movements and floods in several European test sites, an extensive inventory and analysis has been carried out of the available tools and software related to the probabilistic risk assessment of single and multi-hazards. The tools have been reviewed based on whether they are open source and freely available, their required input data, the availability and type of hazard and vulnerability modules, transparency of methods used, their validation and calibration techniques, the inclusion of uncertainties and their state of the art. The analysis also specially focused on the applicability of the tools to European study areas. The findings showed that assumptions and simplifications are made when assessing and quantifying the hazards. The interaction between multiple hazards, like cascading effects are not assessed in most tools and some consider the hazard and vulnerability as qualitative components, rather than quantitative ones. This analysis of hazard and risk assessment tools and software will give future developers and experts a better overview of

  7. Can we quantitatively assess security?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haverkort, Boudewijn R.

    2006-01-01

    This short note describes a number of methods for assessing security in a quantitative way. Next to describing a five existing approaches (where no completeness is claimed), a new assessment technique is proposed, that finds its roots in methods known from performability evaluation and stochastic mo

  8. Quantitative risk assessment relating to adventitious presence of allergens in food: a probabilistic model applied to peanut in chocolate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimbaud, Loup; Heraud, Fanny; La Vieille, Sébastien; Leblanc, Jean-Charles; Crepet, Amélie

    2010-01-01

    Peanut allergy is a public health concern, owing to the high prevalence in France and the severity of the reactions. Despite peanut-containing product avoidance diets, a risk may exist due to the adventitious presence of peanut allergens in a wide range of food products. Peanut is not mentioned in their ingredients list, but precautionary labeling is often present. A method of quantifying the risk of allergic reactions following the consumption of such products is developed, taking the example of peanut in chocolate tablets. The occurrence of adventitious peanut proteins in chocolate and the dose-response relationship are estimated with a Bayesian approach using available published data. The consumption pattern is described by the French individual consumption survey INCA2. Risk simulations are performed using second-order Monte Carlo simulations, which separately propagates variability and uncertainty of the model input variables. Peanut allergens occur in approximately 36% of the chocolates, leading to a mean exposure level of 0.2 mg of peanut proteins per eating occasion. The estimated risk of reaction averages 0.57% per eating occasion for peanut-allergic adults. The 95% values of the risk stand between 0 and 3.61%, which illustrates the risk variability. The uncertainty, represented by the 95% credible intervals, is concentrated around these risk estimates. Children have similar results. The conclusion is that adventitious peanut allergens induce a risk of reaction for a part of the French peanut-allergic population. The method developed can be generalized to assess the risk due to the consumption of every foodstuff potentially contaminated by allergens.

  9. Tools for microbiological risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bassett, J; Nauta, M; Lindqvist, R.; Zwietering, M. H.

    2012-01-01

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute ...

  10. Quantitative flood risk assessment in historic cities: sensitivity to hydraulic modeling and open socio-economic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Castelli, Fabio; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Mazzanti, Bernardo

    2014-05-01

    The assessment of flood risk in urban areas is considered nowadays a crucial issue to be addressed by technicians and public authorities and requires the estimation of hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Each step of the risk assessment brings its uncertainties to the final result, thus the analysis of the sensitivity to the different contributors is required. Since the damages are generally evaluated through stage-damage functions one of the most important contribution is the estimated value of the water depth. Water depth is the outcome of hydraulic models that can be implemented with different modeling approaches and levels of spatial detail, thus providing flood depth maps that may differ in the extension of the inundated area and in the flood depth value. It is generally argued that 2D models are the most suitable to describe flood behavior in the urban environment although most of applications are carried out in small and sparse urban areas. In the historic cities a 2D model provides reliable results if the grid size is small enough to describe the street/building pattern, implying long simulation runs. Another contribution is given by monetary values assigned to the damage categories that may come from different proxy variables and may oscillate according to the real estate quotations. The risk assessment here presented is made possible thanks to a methodology based on the open data, both socio-economic and territorial, that are available in the web. In this work the risk assessment procedure and the sensitivity analysis are applied to the main cities located along the Arno river, Pisa and Florence (Italy) that are usually considered of broad interest for the importance of urban and cultural heritage. The risk is estimated accounting for structures, household contents, commercial and tertiary sectors which are the most representative of the studied areas. The evaluation and mapping of micro-scale flood risk is carried out in a GIS environment using open data

  11. Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of farmer exposure to Cryptosporidium spp. in irrigation water within Kumasi Metropolis-Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sampson, Angelina; Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Mills-Robertson, Felix C.

    2017-01-01

    Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite which can be transmitted via food and water. Some studies have shown irrigation water to be routes of transmission for Cryptosporidium into the food chain, however, little information is known about Cryptosporidium levels in wastewater used for irrigation...... causing gastroenteritis. The results indicate high positive levels of Cryptosporidium in the irrigation water, however, the levels of Cryptosporidium decreases during the rainfall seasons, risk assessment results show that, farmers face a higher risk of being infected by Cryptosporidium due to frequent...

  12. A quantitative screening-level approach to incorporate chemical exposure and risk/safety into alternative assessment evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Scott M; Greggs, Bill; Goyak, Katy O; Landenberger, Bryce D; Mason, Ann M; Howard, Brett; Zaleski, Rosemary; Howard, Brett; Zaleski, Rosemary T

    2017-03-10

    As the general public and retailers ask for disclosure of chemical ingredients in the marketplace, a number of hazard screening tools were developed to evaluate the so called "greenness" of individual chemical ingredients and/or formulations. The majority of these tools focus only on hazard, often using chemical lists, ignoring the other part of the risk equation: exposure. Using a hazard-only focus can result in regrettable substitutions, changing one chemical ingredient for another that turns out to be more hazardous or shifts the toxicity burden to others. To minimize the incidents of regrettable substitutions, BizNGO describes 'Common Principles' to frame a process for informed substitution. Two of the six principles state reduce hazard and minimize exposure. A number of frameworks have emerged to evaluate and assess alternatives. One framework developed by leading experts under the auspices of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences recommended that hazard and exposure be specifically addressed in the same step when assessing candidate alternatives. For the alternative assessment community, this paper serves as an informational resource for considering exposure in an alternatives assessment using elements of problem formulation; product identity, use, and composition; hazard analysis; exposure analysis; and risk characterization. These conceptual elements build upon practices from government, academia, and industry and are exemplified through two hypothetical case studies demonstrating the questions asked and decisions faced in new product development. These two case studies - inhalation exposure to a generic paint product and environmental exposure to a shampoo rinsed down the drain - demonstrate the criteria, considerations, and methods required to combine exposure models addressing human health and environmental impacts to provide a screening level hazard/exposure (risk) analysis. This paper informs practices for these elements within a comparative risk

  13. Return to Sport for Skeletally Immature Athletes After ACL Reconstruction: Preventing a Second Injury Using a Quality of Movement Assessment and Quantitative Measures to Address Modifiable Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graziano, Jessica; Chiaia, Theresa; de Mille, Polly; Nawabi, Danyal H; Green, Daniel W; Cordasco, Frank A

    2017-04-01

    Reinjury rates after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) are highest among young athletes, who consequently suffer from low rates of return to play. Historically, quantitative measures have been used to determine readiness to return to sport; however, they do not assess modifiable risk factors related to the quality of movement. To determine the effectiveness of a criteria-based rehabilitation progression and return-to-sport criteria on efficient return to activity and prevention of second injury in young athletes post-ACLR. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Between December 2010 and 2013, 42 skeletally immature athletes (mean chronologic age, 12 years; range, 10-15 years) who underwent ACLR using ipsilateral hamstring tendon autograft were prospectively evaluated. All athletes progressed through a criteria-based rehabilitation progression; were assessed at specific time frames for strength, biomechanical, and neuromuscular risk factors predictive of injury; and were provided targeted interventions. The final return to sport phase consisted of quantitative testing as well as a quality of movement assessment of several functional movements with progressive difficulty and sports-specific loading. Clearance for unrestricted activity was determined by achieving satisfactory results on both qualitative and quantitative assessments with consideration for the demands of each sport. The mean time for return to unrestricted competitive activity was 12 months. All but 3 (7%) athletes returned to their primary sport. Thirty-five athletes (83%) returned to unrestricted activity. Of the 6 (14%) who sustained a second injury, 3 (50%) were injured in sports they were not cleared for. All ACL reinjuries occurred in a cutting sport. Half of reinjuries occurred within 1 year of surgery, while the remaining occurred between 1 and 2 years. Eighty-three percent of reinjuries involved highly competitive cutting athletes. In our cohort, the combination of qualitative and

  14. Semi-Quantitative Assessment of the Health Risk of Occupational Exposure to Chemicals and Evaluation of Spirometry Indices on the Staff of Petrochemical Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajar Dazi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study: Petrochemical industry is an important industry in the economic development of the country that causes employees have exposure with several kinds of contamination. The aim of this study was Semi-quantitative assessment of the health risk of occupational exposure to chemical materials and investigation of spirometry indices between employees of petrochemical industry. Material & Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in one of the petrochemical industry complex in a special area of Assaluyeh in Iran in 2016. Health risk assessment of exposure to harmful chemical agents was performed in all of units and during three stages (identification of harmful material, determination of hazard rate of the chemical material, exposure rate and estimate of risk rate. Spirometry indices were measured using spirometry. Results: The results of chemical materials risk assessment showed that Raffinate in Butadiene unit has identified the highest amount of risk rank among 27 chemical materials in investigated units. In comparison with spirometry indices in Olefine unit between age with FVC parameter and history work with FVC and FEV1 parameters has observed a significant and negative correlation (P<0.05. Conclusion: The results of risk assessment in all of the petrochemical units showed that 48.14% of materials were at low risk level, 29.62% medium risk, 18.51% high risk and 3.7% had very high risk level. The variables affecting on spirometry employees such as age and work experience play an important role in reducing the pulmonary function tests in exposed subjects.

  15. A quantitative assessment of the risk of transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy by tallow-based calf milk-replacer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paisley, Larry G; Hostrup-Pedersen, Julie

    2004-04-30

    A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to assess the risk of BSE transmission to calves by calf milk-replacer (CMR). We assumed that any BSE infectivity in the CMR would be associated with the allowable levels of impurities in tallow used to manufacture the milk-replacer. Simulations used three different levels of impurities, six different distributions of the BSE infectivity titers of CNS tissues and with and without inclusion of specified risk material (SRM). Our results suggest that tallow-based CMR could have been responsible for some BSE infections in nearly all simulations. The reduction in the allowable impurities in tallow and the exclusion of SRM have greatly reduced--but have not eliminated--the risk of BSE transmission by CMR The results of the simulations are associated with much uncertainty.

  16. A quantitative assessment of the risk of transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy by tallow-based calf milk-replacer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry; Hostrup-Pedersen, J.

    2004-01-01

    A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to assess the risk of BSE transmission to calves by calf milk-replacer (CMR). We assumed that any BSE infectivity in the CMR would be associated with the allowable levels of impurities in tallow used to manufacture the milk-replacer. Simulations used...... three different levels of impurities, six different distributions of the BSE infectivity titers of CNS tissues and with and without inclusion of specified risk material (SRM). Our results suggest that tallow-based CMR could have been responsible for some BSE infections in nearly all simulations....... The reduction in the allowable impurities in tallow and the exclusion of SRM have greatly reduced-but have not eliminated-the risk of BSE transmission by CMR The results of the simulations are associated with much uncertainty....

  17. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V

    2017-03-21

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider's server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs' users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs' risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs' risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing.

  18. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V.

    2017-01-01

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider’s server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs’ users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs’ risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs’ risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing. PMID:28335569

  19. Quantitative approach for the risk assessment of African swine fever and Classical swine fever introduction into the United States through legal imports of pigs and swine products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera-Ibatá, Diana María; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Quijada, Darla; Burton, Kenneth

    2017-01-01

    The US livestock safety strongly depends on its capacity to prevent the introduction of Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs). Therefore, accurate and updated information on the location and origin of those potential TADs risks is essential, so preventive measures as market restrictions can be put on place. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the current risk of African swine fever (ASF) and Classical swine fever (CSF) introduction into the US through the legal importations of live pigs and swine products using a quantitative approach that could be later applied to other risks. Four quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were developed to estimate the monthly probabilities of ASF and CSF release into the US, and the exposure of susceptible populations (domestic and feral swine) to these introductions at state level. The results suggest a low annual probability of either ASF or CSF introduction into the US, by any of the analyzed pathways (5.5*10−3). Being the probability of introduction through legal imports of live pigs (1.8*10−3 for ASF, and 2.5*10−3 for CSF) higher than the risk of legally imported swine products (8.90*10−4 for ASF, and 1.56*10−3 for CSF). This could be caused due to the low probability of exposure associated with this type of commodity (products). The risk of feral pigs accessing to swine products discarded in landfills was slightly higher than the potential exposure of domestic pigs through swill feeding. The identification of the months at highest risk, the origin of the higher risk imports, and the location of the US states most vulnerable to those introductions (Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin for live swine and California, Florida and Texas for swine products), is valuable information that would help to design prevention, risk-mitigation and early-detection strategies that would help to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASF/CSF introductions into the US. PMID:28797058

  20. A semi-quantitative risk assessment method for analyzing the level of risk associated with parameters in design of thermal heavy oil Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrokhzad, M.A. [IMV Projects Inc., Alberta (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    how to prevent and control them. In this paper we look at the involved parameters in design of the SAGD pipelines and provide a semi-quantitative risk assessment method and the level of risk involved for each of these parameters. (author)

  1. A Risk Assessment Model for Reduced Aircraft Separation: A Quantitative Method to Evaluate the Safety of Free Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassell, Rick; Smith, Alex; Connors, Mary; Wojciech, Jack; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    As new technologies and procedures are introduced into the National Airspace System, whether they are intended to improve efficiency, capacity, or safety level, the quantification of potential changes in safety levels is of vital concern. Applications of technology can improve safety levels and allow the reduction of separation standards. An excellent example is the Precision Runway Monitor (PRM). By taking advantage of the surveillance and display advances of PRM, airports can run instrument parallel approaches to runways separated by 3400 feet with the same level of safety as parallel approaches to runways separated by 4300 feet using the standard technology. Despite a wealth of information from flight operations and testing programs, there is no readily quantifiable relationship between numerical safety levels and the separation standards that apply to aircraft on final approach. This paper presents a modeling approach to quantify the risk associated with reducing separation on final approach. Reducing aircraft separation, both laterally and longitudinally, has been the goal of several aviation R&D programs over the past several years. Many of these programs have focused on technological solutions to improve navigation accuracy, surveillance accuracy, aircraft situational awareness, controller situational awareness, and other technical and operational factors that are vital to maintaining flight safety. The risk assessment model relates different types of potential aircraft accidents and incidents and their contribution to overall accident risk. The framework links accident risks to a hierarchy of failsafe mechanisms characterized by procedures and interventions. The model will be used to assess the overall level of safety associated with reducing separation standards and the introduction of new technology and procedures, as envisaged under the Free Flight concept. The model framework can be applied to various aircraft scenarios, including parallel and in

  2. Quantitative risk analysis of urban flooding in lowland areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.

    2010-01-01

    Urban flood risk analyses suffer from a lack of quantitative historical data on flooding incidents. Data collection takes place on an ad hoc basis and is usually restricted to severe events. The resulting data deficiency renders quantitative assessment of urban flood risks uncertain. The study repor

  3. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars, Based on Modeling Supply Chain Logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Franz, E.

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference betwee

  4. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars, Based on Modeling Supply Chain Logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Franz, E.

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference

  5. Quantitative assessment of the influence of CYP1B1 polymorphisms and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Ming; Hu, Yuan-Yuan; Hu, Yu-Kun; Xie, Long-Chuan; Xu, Xiao-Ming; Wu, Ming-Yue; Niu, Yu-Ming

    2014-04-01

    The associations between CYP1B1 polymorphisms and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) risk have been conflicting. We therefore performed a meta-analysis to derive a more precise relationship. Six published case-control studies were collected; odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to assess the association between CYP1B1 Leu432Val, Asn453Ser polymorphisms, and HNSCC risk. The Sensitivity analysis and publication bias also were performed to guarantee the statistical power. Overall, the pooled OR with 95% CIs indicated that CYP1B1 Leu432Val polymorphism was significantly related with HNSCC risk (for Val vs. Leu: OR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.03-1.25, P = 0.014, P(heterogeneity) = 0.141; for Val/Val vs. Leu/Leu: OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.06-1.60, P = 0.013, P heterogeneity = 0.253; for Val/Val vs. Leu/Leu + Leu/Val: OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.05-1.46, P = 0.013, P(heterogeneity) = 0.456). The similar results were also been found in succeeding analysis of HWE and stratified analysis of Caucasian population. Furthermore, no significant association between CYP1B1 Asn453Ser polymorphism and HNSCC risk was found in this meta-analysis. In conclusion, our meta-analysis demonstrates that CYP1B1 Leu432Val polymorphism may be a risk factor for developing HNSCC.

  6. Quantitative cancer risk assessment based on NIOSH and UCC epidemiological data for workers exposed to ethylene oxide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez-Flores, Ciriaco; Sielken, Robert L; Teta, M Jane

    2010-04-01

    The most recent epidemiological data on individual workers in the NIOSH and updated UCC occupational studies have been used to characterize the potential excess cancer risks of environmental exposure to ethylene oxide (EO). In addition to refined analyses of the separate cohorts, power has been increased by analyzing the combined cohorts. In previous SMR analyses of the separate studies and the present analyses of the updated and pooled studies of over 19,000 workers, none of the SMRs for any combination of the 12 cancer endpoints and six sub-cohorts analyzed were statistically significantly greater than one including the ones of greatest previous interest: leukemia, lymphohematopoietic tissue, lymphoid tumors, NHL, and breast cancer. In our study, no evidence of a positive cumulative exposure-response relationship was found. Fitted Cox proportional hazards models with cumulative EO exposure do not have statistically significant positive slopes. The lack of increasing trends was corroborated by categorical analyses. Cox model estimates of the concentrations corresponding to a 1-in-a-million extra environmental cancer risk are all greater than approximately 1ppb and are more than 1500-fold greater than the 0.4ppt estimate in the 2006 EPA draft IRIS risk assessment. The reasons for this difference are identified and discussed. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Determination of quantitative food consumption levels for use in microbial risk assessments: cheddar cheese as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahk, Gyung-Jin; Todd, Ewen C D

    2007-01-01

    Microbial risk assessment (MRA) is becoming increasingly used in the management of food safety because it can be used to quantify risks and help rank intervention strategies. The exposure assessment components of the assessments have become complex with many aspects of the contamination, survival, and growth of a pathogen in a food being taken into consideration. Insufficient consumption data constitutes an important data gap and consequently one of many sources of uncertainty in MRA even though the effects of uncertainty are smaller than those affecting bacterial concentration in foods. Therefore, food consumption data also play an important role in exposure assessment of MRA. In the United States, there are large-scale, nationwide sets of consumption data available for use in MRA, i.e., the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Newly released dietary interview data in the NHANES 2001 to 2002 survey show that it has been redesigned and that the data were sufficiently updated from previous versions to have more value for MRAs. We propose a model that can effectively use the new data sets and be incorporated into MRAs, using as an example consumption of Cheddar cheese/American-type cheese. This model included the prevalence of food eaten as well as the amount and frequency. We determined the amount of Cheddar/American cheese consumed per day with probability distribution (e.g., lognormal distribution). These could be further determined by gender, age, pregnancy, and combination food type, which we plan to do in the future. The frequency of the range of serving numbers for Cheddar/American cheese consumed per person per day and prevalence as the proportion of a population (e.g., survey respondents) eating a certain food in a day are also presented. Unlike traditional published mean values, the results of this model provide probability distribution intakes that can be compared with mean and median intakes. This allows values in the upper

  8. Quantitative risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall based on direct costs of urban buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, Johnny Alexander; Hidalgo, Cesar Augusto

    2016-11-01

    This paper outlines a framework for risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall in urban buildings in the city of Medellín - Colombia, applying a model that uses a geographic information system (GIS). We applied a computer model that includes topographic, geological, geotechnical and hydrological features of the study area to assess landslide hazards using the Newmark's pseudo-static method, together with a probabilistic approach based on the first order and second moment method (FOSM). The physical vulnerability assessment of buildings was conducted using structural fragility indexes, as well as the definition of damage level of buildings via decision trees and using Medellin's cadastral inventory data. The probability of occurrence of a landslide was calculated assuming that an earthquake produces horizontal ground acceleration (Ah) and considering the uncertainty of the geotechnical parameters and the soil saturation conditions of the ground. The probability of occurrence was multiplied by the structural fragility index values and by the replacement value of structures. The model implemented aims to quantify the risk caused by this kind of disaster in an area of the city of Medellín based on different values of Ah and an analysis of the damage costs of this disaster to buildings under different scenarios and structural conditions. Currently, 62% of "Valle de Aburra" where the study area is located is under very low condition of landslide hazard and 38% is under low condition. If all buildings in the study area fulfilled the requirements of the Colombian building code, the costs of a landslide would be reduced 63% compared with the current condition. An earthquake with a return period of 475 years was used in this analysis according to the seismic microzonation study in 2002.

  9. Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Lynne P.

    2011-01-01

    Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

  10. Submarine Pipeline Routing Risk Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐慧; 于莉; 胡云昌; 王金英

    2004-01-01

    A new method for submarine pipeline routing risk quantitative analysis was provided, and the study was developed from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis.The characteristics of the potential risk of the submarine pipeline system were considered, and grey-mode identification theory was used. The study process was composed of three parts: establishing the indexes system of routing risk quantitative analysis, establishing the model of grey-mode identification for routing risk quantitative analysis, and establishing the standard of mode identification result. It is shown that this model can directly and concisely reflect the hazard degree of the routing through computing example, and prepares the routing selection for the future.

  11. Quantitative exposure assessment for the combustion of meat and bone meal derived from specified risk material in the context of BSE in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, E J; Grace, P M; Fry, D J; McDonnell, K P; Colgan, S F; Ward, S M

    2002-11-01

    The probability and severity of an adverse event can be analyzed by quantitative exposure assessment (QEA). This methodology was applied to model the human health risks associated with the combustion of specified risk material (SRM) derived meat and bone meal (MBM) in a combustion facility. The identification of MBM and SRM as significant factors in the spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has resulted in restrictions on their use and movement, and this has led to a requirement for alternative end-uses for these products. A stochastic (Latin Hypercube sampling) simulation model was developed to assess the exposure and hence the risks associated with the use of SRM-derived MBM in a combustion facility. The model simulates the potential infectivity pathways that SRM-derived MBM follows, including its production from animals potentially infected with sub-clinical BSE and subsequent processing of the material with segregation and heat treatments. A failure probability was included to take account of sub-optimal operating conditions. Two scenarios, reflecting the infectivity risk in different animal tissues as defined by the European Commission's scientific steering committee (SSC), were performed with 100,000 iterations of the model. Model results showed that the societal exposure to humans resulting from the combustion of SRM-derived MBM is extremely small (mean values ranging from 7.57 x 10(-6) ID50/year to 8.38 x 10(-5) ID50/year). The resulting societal risks are significantly less than the background societal risk of approximately 2.5 cases of sporadic CJD in Ireland each year. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the species barrier had a large impact on exposure calculations and hence should be the focus of further scientific investigation to reduce our uncertainty about this parameter. The model predicts that material spillage into untreated effluent represents the biggest risk to humans, indicating that efforts for risk mitigation should be focused

  12. Rapid quantification of viable Campylobacter bacteria on chicken carcasses, using real-time PCR and propidium monoazide treatment, as a tool for quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josefsen, M H; Löfström, C; Hansen, T B; Christensen, L S; Olsen, J E; Hoorfar, J

    2010-08-01

    A number of intervention strategies against Campylobacter-contaminated poultry focus on postslaughter reduction of the number of cells, emphasizing the need for rapid and reliable quantitative detection of only viable Campylobacter bacteria. We present a new and rapid quantitative approach to the enumeration of food-borne Campylobacter bacteria that combines real-time quantitative PCR (Q-PCR) with simple propidium monoazide (PMA) sample treatment. In less than 3 h, this method generates a signal from only viable and viable but nonculturable (VBNC) Campylobacter bacteria with an intact membrane. The method's performance was evaluated by assessing the contributions to variability by individual chicken carcass rinse matrices, species of Campylobacter, and differences in efficiency of DNA extraction with differing cell inputs. The method was compared with culture-based enumeration on 50 naturally infected chickens. The cell contents correlated with cycle threshold (C(T)) values (R(2) = 0.993), with a quantification range of 1 x 10(2) to 1 x 10(7) CFU/ml. The correlation between the Campylobacter counts obtained by PMA-PCR and culture on naturally contaminated chickens was high (R(2) = 0.844). The amplification efficiency of the Q-PCR method was not affected by the chicken rinse matrix or by the species of Campylobacter. No Q-PCR signals were obtained from artificially inoculated chicken rinse when PMA sample treatment was applied. In conclusion, this study presents a rapid tool for producing reliable quantitative data on viable Campylobacter bacteria in chicken carcass rinse. The proposed method does not detect DNA from dead Campylobacter bacteria but recognizes the infectious potential of the VBNC state and is thereby able to assess the effect of control strategies and provide trustworthy data for risk assessment.

  13. Quantitative risk assessment of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 and Campylobacter jejuni related to consumption of raw milk in a province in Northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, F; Serraino, A; Bonilauri, P; Ostanello, F; Daminelli, P; Finazzi, G; Losio, M N; Marchetti, G; Liuzzo, G; Zanoni, R G; Rosmini, R

    2012-11-01

    A quantitative risk assessment was developed to describe the risk of campylobacteriosis and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Northern Italy. Exposure assessment considered the microbiological status of dairy farms, expected milk contamination, storage conditions from bulk tank to home storage, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, age of consumers, serving size, and consumption preference. The differential risk between milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst field handling conditions was considered. The probability of Campylobacter jejuni infection was modeled with a single-hit dose-response beta-Poisson model, whereas for HUS an exponential dose-response model was chosen and two probabilities were used to model the higher susceptibility of children younger than 5 years old. For every 10,000 to 20,000 consumers each year, the models predicted for the best and worst storage conditions, respectively, 2.12 and 1.14 campylobacteriosis cases and 0.02 and 0.09 HUS cases in the 0- to 5-year age group and 0.1 and 0.5 HUS cases in the >5-year age group. The expected pediatric HUS cases do not differ considerably from those reported in Italy by the Minister of Health. The model developed may be a useful tool for extending the assessment of the risk of campylobacteriosis and HUS due to raw milk consumption at the national level in Italy. Considering the epidemiological implications of this study, the risk of illness linked to raw milk consumption should not be ignored and could be reduced by the use of simple measures. Boiling milk before consumption and strict control of temperatures by farmers during raw milk distribution have significant effects on campylobacteriosis and HUS and are essential measures for risk management.

  14. Failure data specialization in quantitative risk assessments of process plants; Especializacao de dados de falha em analise quantitativa de riscos de plantas de processo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribeiro, Antonio C.O. [Bayer S.A., Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Melo, P.F. Frutuoso e [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia

    2005-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to show the Bayesian inference in reliability studies, which are used to failures rates updating in safety analyses. It is developed the impact of its using in quantitative risks assessments for industrial process plants. With this approach we find a structured and auditable way of showing the difference between an industrial installation with a good project and maintenance structure from another one that shows a low level of quality in these areas. In general the evidence from failures rates and as follow the frequency of occurrence from scenarios, which the risks taken in account in ERA, are taken from generics data banks, instead of, the installation in analysis. When using the plant data we need special effort to develop a data bank, that is, a maintenance managing system, which allows the data insertion as for example the SAP{sup R} and its PM module. (author)

  15. The BSE risk of processing meat and bone meal in nonruminant feed: a quantitative assessment for the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vos, Clazien J; Heres, Lourens

    2009-04-01

    The total ban on use of meat and bone meal (MBM) in livestock feed has been very successful in reducing bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) spread, but also implies a waste of high-quality proteins resulting in economic and ecological loss. Now that the BSE epidemic is fading out, a partial lifting of the MBM ban might be considered. The objective of this study was to assess the BSE risk for the Netherlands if MBM derived from animals fit for human consumption, i.e., category 3 MBM, would be used in nonruminant feed. A stochastic simulation model was constructed that calculates (1) the probability that infectivity of undetected BSE-infected cows ends up with calves and (2) the quantity of infectivity (Q(inf)) consumed by calves in case of such an incident. Three pathways were considered via which infectivity can reach cattle: (1) cross-contamination in the feed mill, (2) cross-contamination on the primary farm, and (3) pasture contamination. Model calculations indicate that the overall probability that infectivity ends up with calves is 3.2%. In most such incidents the Q(inf) is extremely small (median = 6.5 x 10(-12) ID(50); mean = 1.8 x 10(-4) ID(50)), corresponding to an average probability of 1.3 x 10(-4) that an incident results in >or=1 new BSE infections. Cross-contamination in the feed mill is the most risky pathway. Combining model results with Dutch BSE prevalence estimates for the coming years, it can be concluded that the BSE risk of using category 3 MBM derived from Dutch cattle in nonruminant feed is very low.

  16. 2006 American College of Toxicology Distinguished Service Award Lecture: Has quantitative risk assessment been of benefit to the science of toxicology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodricks, Joseph V

    2007-01-01

    Quantitative approaches to evaluating the risks of chemical toxicity entered the lives of toxicologists in the mid-1970s, and the continuing interaction of toxicology and risk assessment has been of benefit to both disciplines. I will summarize the origins of the interaction, the reasons for it, and the difficult course it has followed. In doing so, I will set the stage for a discussion of how the type of thinking that informs risk-based decision-making provides important benefits to the continuing development of the science of toxicology. There will continue to be societal pressure for the development of reliable knowledge about the public health importance of the enormous variety of chemical exposures we all incur, from conception to death. Risk assessment is the framework used to organize and convey that knowledge. Toxicology is the principle discipline used to give scientific substance to that framework. Social acceptance of every manifestation of the modern chemical age requires high assurance that the public health is not threatened, and that assurance depends upon continued improvements in these two mutually dependent disciplines.

  17. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Natural Gas Well with Hydrogen Sulfide%含硫气井定量风险分析方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴庆善; 钱新明; 郭再富; 黄平

    2009-01-01

    随中国经济对石油天然气能源依赖程度的加深,大力开发含硫化氢气田成为重要任务,而定量评价含硫气井的风险显得更加必要和迫切.提出了含硫气井井喷事故硫化氢泄漏扩散过程中个人风险定量计算方法,根据相关统计资料,提出了井喷事故概率的参考值,将该方法应用于川渝地区某含硫气井,获取了该井周边区域个人风险等值线,并与可接受风险水平进行对比分析.结果表明,由于地形条件的影响,在气井周边不同方向的个人风险水平差异很大,可接受风险水平上限值等值线距井口的距离在不同方位上相差可达1000 m,在对气井进行定量风险分析时必须充分加以考虑.该方法可为油气田开发企业、安全监管部门对含硫气井开发过程实施定量风险评价和管理提供有效技术手段,并为应急计划区的划分及边界确定提供参考.%With the heavy dependence of domestic economy on oil and gas,the exploitation of natural gas fields with hydrogen sulfide is an urgent project in China.The quantitative risk assessment for natural gas wells with hydrogen sulfide is a necessary and impending requirement.A quantitative calculation method for an individual risk for leakage and dispersion process of hydrogen sulfide in blowout of gas wells is proposed in this paper.Based on the statistical analysis of data in literature,the probability of blowout incident is brought forward for reference.The method is applied to a typical gas well in Sichuan and Chongqing district as a practical example.The contour curves of individual risks in the area around the well are obtained,and compared with the acceptable level of the individual risks.The results show that the topographic conditions of the gas well greatly influence the calculation results of the individual risks,the distance between the upper limit isoline of acceptable risk and the well in different directions can reach 1000 m.So it must

  18. 食品中微生物危害定量风险评估综述%Review on Quantitative Risk Assessment of Microbiological Hazards in Foods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高永超; 刘丽梅; 杨作明; 王玎

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, the frequent acts of quality dishonesty resulted in losses to consumers and disrupted the national economic. In China, food safety issues caused by microbiological hazards are of a large proportion in the whole account. Quantitative risk assessment of microbiological hazards can help the government and enterprises to enhance risk management capabilities, prevention and control of microbiological hazards, thereby improving overall food safety level. In this paper, the status of domestic and foreign research on quantitative risk assessment techniques of microbiological hazards in food is reviewed. Existing problems of these assessment techniques and future trends are analyzed.%近年来食品安全事件频发,给消费者带来了健康风险,也扰乱了国家经济秩序.在我国,由于食品中微生物危害导致的食品安全问题在总数中占很大比重.微生物危害的定量风险评估,能够帮助政府和企业增强风险管理能力,预防和控制微生物危害,从而提高整体食品安全水平.本文对当前国内外食品中微生物危害的定量风险评估技术的研究现状进行了综述,对现存的问题及未来的发展趋势进行了分析.

  19. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  20. Use of quantitative microbial risk assessment when investigating foodborne illness outbreaks: the example of a monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium 4,5,12:i:- outbreak implicating beef burgers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillier, Laurent; Danan, Corinne; Bergis, Hélène; Delignette-Muller, Marie-Laure; Granier, Sophie; Rudelle, Sylvie; Beaufort, Annie; Brisabois, Anne

    2013-09-16

    A major community outbreak of salmonellosis occurred in France in October 2010. Classical epidemiological investigations led to the identification of beef burgers as the cause of the outbreak and the presence of the emerging monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium 4,5,12:i:-. The objective of this study was to understand the events that led to this large outbreak, that is to say, what are the contributing factors associated with consumer exposure to Salmonella. To this end, intensive microbiological investigations on several beef burgers were conducted and a risk assessment model was built. The microbiological results confirm the presence of Salmonella in all analysed frozen burgers at high levels of contamination above 1000 MPN/g. These results in frozen burgers combined with a model of thermal destruction were used to estimate the dose ingested by the exposed persons. Most people that consumed cooked beef burgers were exposed from 1.6 to 3.1 log₁₀ (MPN). The number of sick people predicted with a dose-response relationship for Salmonella is consistent with the observed number of salmonellosis cases. The very high initial contamination level in frozen beef burgers is the primary cause of this large outbreak rather than bad cooking practices. Intensive investigations, modelling of the initial contamination and quantitative exposure and risk assessments are complementary to epidemiological investigation. They can be valuable elements for the assessment of missing information or the identification of the primary causes of outbreaks.

  1. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy green vegetables consumed at salad bars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, E; Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; van der Fels-Klerx, H J

    2010-02-01

    Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green vegetables in salad from salad bars in The Netherlands. Pathogen growth was modeled in Aladin (Agro Logistics Analysis and Design Instrument) using time-temperature profiles in the chilled supply chain and one particular restaurant with a salad bar. A second-order Monte Carlo risk assessment model was constructed (using @Risk) to estimate the public health effects. The temperature in the studied cold chain was well controlled below 5 degrees C. Growth of E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella was minimal (17 and 15%, respectively). Growth of L. monocytogenes was considerably greater (194%). Based on first-order Monte Carlo simulations, the average number of cases per year in The Netherlands associated the consumption leafy greens in salads from salad bars was 166, 187, and 0.3 for E. coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and L. monocytogenes, respectively. The ranges of the average number of annual cases as estimated by second-order Monte Carlo simulation (with prevalence and number of visitors as uncertain variables) were 42 to 551 for E. coli O157:H7, 81 to 281 for Salmonella, and 0.1 to 0.9 for L. monocytogenes. This study included an integration of modeling pathogen growth in the supply chain of fresh leafy vegetables destined for restaurant salad bars using software designed to model and design logistics and modeling the public health effects using probabilistic risk assessment software.

  2. Presentation of a method for consequence modeling and quantitative risk assessment of fire and explosion in process industry (Case study: Hydrogen Production Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M J Jafari

    2013-05-01

     .Conclusion: Since the proposed method is applicable in all phases of process or system design, and estimates the risk of fire and explosion by a quantitative, comprehensive and mathematical-based equations approach. It can be used as an alternative method instead of qualitative and semi quantitative methods.

  3. Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  4. A Note on Quantitative Definition of Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李力; 赵联文; 杨宁

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis has become more and more important in practical application, but there has not been a widely accepted frame work and model for the research. Motivated by factor analysis method and Kaplan-Garrick's quantitative definition of risk, a general risk model was established based on analyzing risk situations and employing information system and evidence theory, and Kaplan-Garrick's result was improved to introduce a frame word for analyzing and managing risk.

  5. Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk in Małopolska (Poland), Supported by an Object-Based Analysis of High-Resolution Satellite Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drzewiecki, Wojciech; Wężyk, Piotr; Pierzchalski, Marcin; Szafrańska, Beata

    2014-06-01

    In 2011 the Marshal Office of Małopolska Voivodeship decided to evaluate the vulnerability of soils to water erosion for the entire region. The quantitative and qualitative assessment of the erosion risk for the soils of the Małopolska region was done based on the USLE approach. The special work-flow of geoinformation technologies was used to fulfil this goal. A high-resolution soil map, together with rainfall data, a detailed digital elevation model and statistical information about areas sown with particular crops created the input information for erosion modelling in GIS environment. The satellite remote sensing technology and the object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach gave valuable support to this study. RapidEye satellite images were used to obtain the essential up-to-date data about land use and vegetation cover for the entire region (15,000 km2). The application of OBIA also led to defining the direction of field cultivation and the mapping of contour tillage areas. As a result, the spatially differentiated values of erosion control practice factor were used. Both, the potential and the actual soil erosion risk were assessed quantificatively and qualitatively. The results of the erosion assessment in the Małopolska Voivodeship reveal the fact that a majority of its agricultural lands is characterized by moderate or low erosion risk levels. However, high-resolution erosion risk maps show its substantial spatial diversity. According to our study, average or higher actual erosion intensity levels occur for 10.6 % of agricultural land, i.e. 3.6 % of the entire voivodeship area. In 20 % of the municipalities there is a very urgent demand for erosion control. In the next 23 % an urgent erosion control is needed. Our study showed that even a slight improvement of P-factor estimation may have an influence on modeling results. In our case, despite a marginal change of erosion assessment figures on a regional scale, the influence on the final prioritization of

  6. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  7. 76 FR 19311 - Update of the 2003 Interagency Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Risk to Public Health From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-07

    ... ingesting L. monocytogenes, humans can develop listeriosis, a severe foodborne disease with a high case-fatality rate. Listeriosis occurs predominantly in high-risk population subgroups, including pregnant women... listeriosis, the ``Healthy People 2010'' goals for national disease prevention and health promotion...

  8. Quantitative risk assessment for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in low or zero prevalence countries: the example of Norway

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogasen, H.R.; Koeijer, de A.A.

    2007-01-01

    A predictive case-cohort model is applied to Norwegian data to analyze the interaction between challenge and stability factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during the period 1980¿2010. For each year, the BSE risk in cattle is estimated as the expected number of cases. The age distribut

  9. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Navigate the SDMPB and Identify an 8-digit HUC of Interest - Updated 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    This tutorial reviews some of the screens, icons, and basic functions of the SDMProjectBuilder (SDMPB) that allow a user to identify an 8-digit HUC (HUC-8) of interest from which a pour point or 12-digit HUC (HUC-12) can be chosen for a microbial assessment. It demonstrates how t...

  10. quantitative assessment of the influence of cytochrome P450 1A2 gene polymorphism and colorectal cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Zhao

    Full Text Available Cytochrome P450 1A2 (CYP1A2 encodes a member of the cytochrome P450 superfamily of enzymes, which play a central role in activating and detoxifying many carcinogens and endogenous compounds thought to be involved in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC. The CYP1A2*C (rs2069514 and CYP1A2*F (rs762551 polymorphism are two of the most commonly studied polymorphisms of the gene for their association with risk of CRC, but the results are conflicting. To derive a more precise estimation of the relationship between CYP1A2 and genetic risk of CRC, we performed a comprehensive meta-analysis which included 7088 cases and 7568 controls from 12 published case-control studies. In a combined analysis, the summary per-allele odds ratio for CRC was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.83-1.00, P = 0.04, and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.68-1.22, P = 0.53, for CYP1A2 *F and *C allele, respectively. In the subgroup analysis by ethnicity, significant associations were found in Asians for CYP1A2*F and CYP1A2*C, while no significant associations were detected among Caucasian populations. Similar results were also observed using dominant genetic model. Potential sources of heterogeneity were explored by subgroup analysis and meta-regression. No significant heterogeneity was detected in most of comparisons. This meta-analysis suggests that the CYP1A2 *F and *C polymorphism is a protective factor against CRC among Asians.

  11. Pipeline risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kariyawasam, S. [TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Weir, D. [Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)] (comps.)

    2009-07-01

    Risk assessments and risk analysis are system-wide activities that include site-specific risk and reliability-based decision-making, implementation, and monitoring. This working group discussed the risk management process in the pipeline industry, including reliability-based integrity management and risk control processes. Attendants at the group discussed reliability-based decision support and performance measurements designed to support corporate risk management policies. New developments and technologies designed to optimize risk management procedures were also presented. The group was divided into 3 sessions: (1) current practice, strengths and limitations of system-wide risk assessments for facility assets; (2) accounting for uncertainties to assure safety; and (3) reliability based excavation repair criteria and removing potentially unsafe corrosion defects. Presentations of risk assessment procedures used at various companies were given. The role of regulators, best practices, and effective networking environments in ensuring the success of risk assessment policies was discussed. Risk assessment models were also reviewed.

  12. A quantitative chemical industry area risk assessment model%化工园区区域定量风险评价及其应用研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马月鹏; 李竹霞; 倪凯; 杨柳

    2012-01-01

    讨论了化工园区域定量风险评价的基本程序和评价指标,提出了定量风险计算的个人风险和社会风险计算模型.利用SAFETI软件对碳一分公司进行定量风险计算,得出碳一分公司区域的个人风险等值线图和社会风险曲线图.依据计算结果分析碳一分公司化工园区域的风险现状.%The present paper aims to introduce our work in developing the quantitative chemical industry zone risk assessment model. As is known, with the ever-increasing rate of chemical works accidents, such as fire, explosion and toxic diffusion, it has become more and more urgent to enhance the research on how to analyze such disastrous accidents and prevent them more effectively, particularly, close attention to the study of the hazards taking place in industrial zones. As a matter of fact, most risk evaluation methods concerning the safety distance between the industrial zones and the human residential areas. Such research and evaluation items have been remarkably valuable due to their high subjective factors. On the contrary, industrial area quantitative risk assessment (IAQRA) is generally regarded as an effective method for evaluating the risks of chemical industry parks. It is just for the purpose of such research of the IAQRA, this paper has introduced the procedures of IAQRA and its evaluation criteria along with the calculation model of personal and social insurance risks. To increase the reliability of the evaluation results, we have done investigations over all the accidental scenarios concerning the e-valuation model and accumulate large amounts of related data from the actual process of the realistic disasters. Since the evaluation involves huge amounts of calculation in the IAQRA model, we have accomplished the whole work via computer-aided processing. In addition, we have also adopted SAFETI software developed by DNV for the risk assessment. With the help of SAFETI software, both the standards of the personal

  13. Human campylobacteriosis related to the consumption of raw milk sold by vending machines in Italy: Quantitative risk assessment based on official controls over four years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, Federica; Bonilauri, Paolo; Amatiste, Simonetta; Arrigoni, Norma; Bianchi, Manila; Losio, Marina Nadia; Bilei, Stefano; Cascone, Giuseppe; Comin, Damiano; Daminelli, Paolo; Decastelli, Lucia; Merialdi, Giuseppe; Mioni, Renzo; Peli, Angelo; Petruzzelli, Annalisa; Tonucci, Franco; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2015-09-01

    A quantitative risk assessment (RA) model was developed to describe the risk of campylobacteriosis linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. Exposure assessment was based on the official microbiological records of raw milk samples from vending machines monitored by the regional Veterinary Authorities from 2008 to 2011, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, consumption preference and age of consumers. The differential risk considered milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst time-temperature field handling conditions detected. Two separate RA models were developed, one for the consumption of boiled milk and the other for the consumption of raw milk, and two different dose-response (D-R) relationships were considered. The RA model predicted no human campylobacteriosis cases per year either in the best (4°C) storage conditions or in the case of thermal abuse in case of boiling raw milk, whereas in case of raw milk consumption the annual estimated campylobacteriosis cases depend on the dose-response relationships used in the model (D-R I or D-R II), the milk time-temperature storage conditions, consumer behaviour and age of consumers, namely young (with two cut-off values of ≤5 or ≤6 years old for the sensitive population) versus adult consumers. The annual estimated cases for young consumers using D-R II for the sensitive population (≤5 years old) ranged between 1013.7/100,000 population and 8110.3/100,000 population and for adult consumers using D-R I between 79.4/100,000 population and 333.1/100,000 population. Quantification of the risks associated with raw milk consumption is necessary from a public health perspective and the proposed RA model represents a useful and flexible tool to perform future RAs based on local consumer habits to support decision-making on safety policies. Further educational programmes for raw milk

  14. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  15. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) shows increased public health risk associated with exposure to river water under conditions of riverbed sediment resuspension

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Abia, ALK

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available to estimated risks. Thus, the present study aimed at determining the public health risk associated with exposure to pathogenic bacteria in polluted river water under undisturbed conditions and conditions of sediment resuspension in the Apies River, Gauteng...

  16. Integrated challenge test: a new approach evaluating quantitative risk assessment of Listeria in ready to eat foods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Matteini

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The study was aimed to predict the maximum concentration of Listeria monocytogenes during the shelf life in chicken liver paté. The prediction has been performed using the integrated challenge test: a test based on the interaction between indigenous lactic flora and L. monocytogenes and their growth parameters. Two different approaches were investigated: the former is based on the time difference between the onset of the L. monocytogenes and the lactic flora stationary phases, while the latter is based on the lactic flora concentration capable to induct the stationary phase of L. monocytogenes. Three different strains of L. monocytogenes, isolated from meat products, were used to perform three challenge tests. Triplicate samples from three different batches of liver paté were inoculated with a single-strain inoculum of 1.8 Log CFU/g. Samples were then stored at 4°C, 8°C and 12°C. Lactobacillus spp. (ISO 15214:1998 and L. monocytogenes (UNI EN ISO 11290-02:2005 plate counts were performed daily on each sample until the stationary phase was reached by both populations. The challenge test results were input in the Combase software to determine the growth parameters, later used for the calculation method. Predictive data were then statically assessed against the results of two additional challenge tests using triplicate samples from two different batches, the same strains and the same single-strain inoculum. Samples from the first batch were stored for 5 days at 4°C + 5 days at 8°C + 5 days at 12°C; samples from the second batch were stored for 3 days at 4°C + 3 days at 8°C + 4 days at 12°C. The results obtained showed that both approaches provided results very close to the reality. Therefore the Integrated challenge test is useful to determine the maximum concentration of L. monocytogenes, by simply knowing the concentration of the concerned microbial populations at a given time.

  17. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  18. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  19. The burden of drinking water-associated cryptosporidiosis in China: the large contribution of the immunodeficient population identified by quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Shumin; An, Wei; Chen, Zhimin; Zhang, Dongqing; Yu, Jianwei; Yang, Min

    2012-09-01

    A comprehensive quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of Cryptosporidium infection, considering pathogen removal efficiency, different exposure pathways and different susceptible subpopulations, was performed based on the result of a survey of source water from 66 waterworks in 33 major cities across China. The Cryptosporidium concentrations in source water were 0-6 oocysts/10 L, with a mean value of 0.7 oocysts/10 L. The annual diarrhea morbidity caused by Cryptosporidium in drinking water was estimated to be 2701 (95% confidence interval (CI): 138-9381) cases per 100,000 immunodeficient persons and 148 (95% CI: 1-603) cases per 100,000 immunocompetent persons, giving an overall rate of 149.0 (95% CI: 1.3-606.4) cases per 100,000 population. The cryptosporidiosis burden associated with drinking water treated with the conventional process was calculated to be 8.31 × 10(-6) (95% CI: 0.34-30.93 × 10(-6)) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per person per year, which was higher than the reference risk level suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO), but lower than that suggested by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Sixty-six percent of the total health burden due to cryptosporidiosis that occurred in the immunodeficient subpopulation, and 90% of the total DALYs was attributed to adults aged 15-59 years. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the great importance of stability of the treatment process and the importance of watershed protection. The results of this study will be useful in better evaluating and reducing the burden of Cryptosporidium infection.

  20. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

    2016-08-20

    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) (1/2); Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2(Health effect level)×2(exposure ratio)×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

  1. Health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the source water and drinking water of China: Quantitative analysis based on published monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Xu-Xiang; Cheng, Shu-Pei

    2011-12-01

    A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in source water and drinking water of China was conducted using probabilistic techniques from a national perspective. The published monitoring data of PAHs were gathered and converted into BaP equivalent (BaP(eq)) concentrations. Based on the transformed data, comprehensive risk assessment was performed by considering different age groups and exposure pathways. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The risk analysis indicated that, the risk values for children and teens were lower than the accepted value (1.00E-05), indicating no significant carcinogenic risk. The probability of risk values above 1.00E-05 was 5.8% and 6.7% for adults and lifetime groups, respectively. Overall, carcinogenic risks of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China were mostly accepted. However, specific regions, such as Yellow river of Lanzhou reach and Qiantang river should be paid more attention. Notwithstanding the uncertainties inherent in the risk assessment, this study is the first attempt to provide information on carcinogenic risk of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China, and might be useful for potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction.

  2. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  3. Performance of two quantitative PCR methods for microbial source tracking of human sewage and implications for microbial risk assessment in recreational waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Before new, rapid quantitative PCR (qPCR) methods for recreational water quality assessment and microbial source tracking (MST) can be useful in a regulatory context, an understanding of the ability of the method to detect a DNA target (marker) when the contaminant soure has been...

  4. sQMRA在微生物定量风险评估中的应用%Application of sQMRA in quantitative microbiological risk assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱江辉; 李凤琴

    2011-01-01

    Objective A swift quantitative microbiological risk assessment (sQMRA) tool was introduced as an example in the risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (VP) gastroenteritis caused by comsuming oysters in Fujian province.Methods The database of Chinese national nutrition and health survey in 2002, paper reviewing and empirical inferring,11 parameters, such as the oyster consumption data and VP contamination level at retail, influence of cross-contamination and preparation on the number of colony forming unit of VP were estimated. Results It was calculated that about 10 221 and 1 022 people infected by VP and had gastroenteritis respectively during September to November in 2008. The estimated probability of VP gastroenteritis was 2. 8 × 10 -5 which was very close to that estimated based on the surveillance study, 3.8 × 10-5. Conclusion The sQMRA is easy and appropriate for quick QMRA estimation.%目的 以福建省人群食用牡蛎引起副溶血性弧茵(VP)胃肠炎的风险为例,介绍一种快速的风险评估工具(sQMRA)在微生物定量风险评估中的应用.方法 利用结果、文献报告和经验推断等方式,对福建省2008年9-11月牡蛎的消费量和零售阶段VP的污染水平、交叉污染和烹制对VP茵落数的影响等共11个参数进行了推算和引用.结果 计算得到福建省2008年9-11月VP的感染人数为10 221人,其中有1 022人罹惠VP胃肠炎,推算得到的VP胃肠炎的发病概率为2.8×10-5,与人群监测推算的VP胃肠炎发病概率3.8×10-5结果较为接近.结论 sQMRA是一种快速简便有效的微生物定量风险评估工具.

  5. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  6. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  7. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Vibrio Parahaemolyticus in Short Necked Clam%杂色蛤中副溶血弧菌的定量风险评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李寿崧; 吴英娇; 宁芊; 吴文忠; 方成俊

    2012-01-01

    基于国际食品法典委员会关于微生物定量风险评估的理论框架,研究了从水产品批发市场到各零售点(主要为超市)杂色蛤中副溶血弧菌的动态变化情况,对因食用杂色蛤感染副溶血弧菌而引发疾病的风险进行预测,预测出每年、每人因消费生杂色蛤而导致由副溶血弧菌引发的食源性疾病的可能平均值被估计为1.65×10-8.同时对杂色蛤的另一种食用模式——烧烤,也进行了分析研究,确定因其所导致的风险十分小,可以不作为评估的对象.最后根据研究的结果提出针对政府监管部门的管理以及商业运营者和消费者的建议,这些风险管理措施、控制程序和安全食用规范的实施,均可大大降低因食用杂色蛤而感染副溶血弧菌并引发疾病的风险.%The dynamic variation of V. parahaemolyticus in short necked clam from the aquatic wholesale market to each point-of-sale (mainly for the supermarket) was studied based on theory framework of in- ternational food Codex Alimentarius Commission (CAC) about quantitative microbial risk assessment, combined with the reality of China and Fujian province. At the same time, the density of V. parahaemo- lyticus was detected by sampling from point-of-sale to compare with the prediction. Based on the Probabil- ity density of V. parahaemolyticus in short necked clam and the estimated number of servings consumed, the risk prediction of getting disease by consuming raw short necked clam is 1.65 ×10-8 per year. Mean- while, it also come to a conclusion that it is not necessary to analyze the risk which was caused by another cooking model barbecue, because of its minimum probability. Finally, some advices were proposed for government management, business operations and consumers. The implementation of these risk man- agement measures, control procedures and safety eating standards, would be helpful to reduce the risk of disease greatly infected by V

  8. Rapid Quantification of Viable Campylobacter Bacteria on Chicken Carcasses, Using Real-Time PCR and Propidium Monoazide Treatment, as a Tool for Quantitative Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Mathilde Hartmann; Löfström, Charlotta; Hansen, Tina Beck

    2010-01-01

    by assessing the contribution to variability from individual chicken carcass rinse matrices, species of Campylobacter, and the efficiency of DNA extraction with differing cell inputs. The method was compared with culture-based enumeration on 50 naturally infected chickens. The cell contents correlated with Ct...... method does not detect DNA from dead Campylobacter, but recognises the infectious potential of the VBNC state, and is thereby able to assess the effect of control strategies, and provide trustworthy data for risk assessment....

  9. Quantitative assessment model for gastric cancer screening

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kun Chen; Wei-Ping Yu; Liang Song; Yi-Min Zhu

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To set up a mathematic model for gastric cancer screening and to evaluate its function in mass screening for gastric cancer.METHODS: A case control study was carried on in 66patients and 198 normal people, then the risk and protective factors of gastric cancer were determined, including heavy manual work, foods such as small yellow-fin tuna, dried small shrimps, squills, crabs, mothers suffering from gastric diseases, spouse alive, use of refrigerators and hot food,etc. According to some principles and methods of probability and fuzzy mathematics, a quantitative assessment model was established as follows: first, we selected some factors significant in statistics, and calculated weight coefficient for each one by two different methods; second, population space was divided into gastric cancer fuzzy subset and non gastric cancer fuzzy subset, then a mathematic model for each subset was established, we got a mathematic expression of attribute degree (AD).RESULTS: Based on the data of 63 patients and 693 normal people, AD of each subject was calculated. Considering the sensitivity and specificity, the thresholds of AD values calculated were configured with 0.20 and 0.17, respectively.According to these thresholds, the sensitivity and specificity of the quantitative model were about 69% and 63%.Moreover, statistical test showed that the identification outcomes of these two different calculation methods were identical (P>0.05).CONCLUSION: The validity of this method is satisfactory.It is convenient, feasible, economic and can be used to determine individual and population risks of gastric cancer.

  10. Corporate qualitative and quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria – Monica Haralambie

    2016-08-01

    After the financial crisis, two key concerns have been raised regarding banks’ activities: “too little, too late” provisioning for loan losses and “too big to fail”. The credit risk management subject became not only a compliance exercise for banks, but also a key item considered when establishing the strategy and execution path. Our intention within this paper is to discuss some of the specific issues related to credit risk management, considered by commercial banks when analysing a corporate client. The result of this research is a web application named CISS (Credit Institution Scoring System, which represents a proof of concept for a bank credit scoring system. The application was developed using HTML + MySQL + PHP solutions.

  11. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    . The case studies of specific territories are performed using large-scale risk assessment methods. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting an avalanche risk assessment approach on example of the developing but poorly researched ski resort areas in the North Caucasus. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (acceptable, admissible and unacceptable) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to acceptable level or better. It makes possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different mountain regions, analyze it and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures. At present, we are developing methods of avalanche risk assessment in economic performance. It conceder costs of objects located in avalanche prone area, traffic density values and probability of financial loss.

  12. Quantitative assessment of securitisation deals

    CERN Document Server

    Campolongo, Francesca; Schoutens, Wim

    2013-01-01

    The book draws on current research on model risk and parameter sensitivity of securitisation ratings. It provides practical ideas and tools that can facilitate a more informed usage of securitisation ratings. We show how global sensitivity analysis techniques can be used to better analyse and to enhance the understanding of the uncertainties inherent in ratings due to uncertainty in the input parameters. The text introduces a novel global rating approach that takes the uncertainty in the ratings into account when assigning ratings to securitisation products. The book also covers new prepayment and default models that overcome flaws in current models.

  13. Landslide risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  14. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... for prediction purposes, as measured until now in the literature, is at best questionable in schoolchildren, adolescents and adults. That is not to say these additional factors should not be assessed to help understand the strength of their associations with the disease experience in a particular patient......, and aid in the development of an individualized and targeted preventive and management plan....

  15. Quantitative assessment of DNA condensation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trubetskoy, V S; Slattum, P M; Hagstrom, J E; Wolff, J A; Budker, V G

    1999-02-15

    A fluorescent method is proposed for assessing DNA condensation in aqueous solutions with variety of condensing agents. The technique is based on the effect of concentration-dependent self-quenching of covalently bound fluorophores upon DNA collapse. The method allows a more precise determination of charge equivalency in titration experiments with various polycations. The technique's ability to determine the number of DNA molecules that are condensed together in close proximity is under further investigation.

  16. Quantitative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in selected categories of deli meats: impact of lactate and diacetate on listeriosis cases and deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Abani K; Ivanek, Renata; Gröhn, Yrjö T; Geornaras, Ifigenia; Sofos, John N; Wiedmann, Martin

    2009-05-01

    Foodborne disease associated with consumption of ready-to-eat foods contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes represents a considerable pubic health concern. In a risk assessment published in 2003, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Food Safety and Inspection Service estimated that about 90% of human listeriosis cases in the United States are caused by consumption of contaminated deli meats. In this risk assessment, all deli meats were grouped into one of 23 categories of ready-to-eat foods, and only the postretail growth of L. monocytogenes was considered. To provide an improved risk assessment for L. monocytogenes in deli meats, we developed a revised risk assessment that (i) models risk for three subcategories of deli meats (i.e., ham, turkey, and roast beef) and (ii) models L. monocytogenes contamination and growth from production to consumption while considering subcategory-specific growth kinetics parameters (i.e., lag phase and exponential growth rate). This model also was used to assess how reformulation of the chosen deli meat subcategories with L. monocytogenes growth inhibitors (i.e., lactate and diacetate) would impact the number of human listeriosis cases. Use of product-specific growth parameters demonstrated how certain deli meat categories differ in the relative risk of causing listeriosis; products that support more rapid growth and have reduced lag phases (e.g., turkey) represent a higher risk. Although reformulation of deli meats with growth inhibitors was estimated to reduce by about 2.5- to 7.8-fold the number of human listeriosis cases linked to a given deli meat subcategory and thus would reduce the overall risk of human listeriosis, even with reformulation deli meats would still cause a considerable number of human listeriosis cases. A combination of strategies is thus needed to provide continued reduction of these cases. Risk assessment models such as that described here will be critical for evaluation of different control

  17. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Risk Assessment Related tests: Lipid Profile , VLDL Cholesterol , hs-CRP , Lp(a) Overview | Common Questions | Related Pages What ... cardiac risk include: High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) : Studies have shown that measuring CRP with a ...

  18. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  19. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  20. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  1. Quantitative risks analysis of maritime terminal petrochemical

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferreira, Leandro Silveira; Leal, Cesar A. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica (PROMEC)]. E-mail: leandro19889900@yahoo.com.br

    2008-07-01

    This work consists of the application of a computer program (RISKAN) developed for studies of quantification of industrial risks and also a revision of the models used in the program. As part the evaluation made, a test was performed with the application of the computer program to estimate the risks for a marine terminal for storage of petrochemical products, in the city of Rio Grande, Brazil. Thus, as part of the work, it was performed a Quantitative Risk Analysis associated to the terminal, both for the workers and for the population nearby, with a verification of acceptability using the tolerability limits established by the State Licensing Agency (FEPAM-RS). In the risk analysis methodology used internationally, the most used way of presenting results of social risks is in the graphical form with the use of the FN curves and for the individual risk it is common the use of the iso-risk curves traced on the map of the area where is the plant. In the beginning of the study, both a historical analysis of accidents and use of the technique of Preliminary Analysis of Risks were made in order to aid in the process of identification of the possible scenarios of accidents related to the activities in the terminal. After identifying the initiating events, their frequencies or probabilities of occurrence were estimated and followed by the calculations of the physical effects and deaths, with the use, inside the computer program, of published models of Prins Mauritz Laboratory and of American Institute of Chemical Engineers. The average social risk obtained for the external populations was of 8.7x10{sup -7} fatality.year{sup -1} and for the internal population (people working inside the terminal), 3.2x10{sup -4} fatality.year-1. The accident scenario that most contributed to the social risk was death due to exposure to the thermal radiation caused by pool fire, with 84.3% of the total estimated for external populations and 82.9% for the people inside the terminal. The

  2. Quantitative assessment of possible human health risk associated with consumption of arsenic contaminated groundwater and wheat grains from Ropar Wetand and its environs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sakshi; Kaur, Jagdeep; Nagpal, Avinash Kaur; Kaur, Inderpreet

    2016-09-01

    Arsenic (As) is a carcinogenic metalloid that enters food chain through food and water and poses health risk to living beings. It is important to assess the As status in the environment and risks associated with it. Hence, a risk assessment study was conducted across Ropar wetland, Punjab, India and its environs in pre-monsoon season of 2013, to estimate the risk posed to adults and children via daily consumption of As contaminated groundwater and wheat grains. Arsenic concentrations determined in groundwater, soil and wheat grain samples using atomic absorption spectrometer ranged from 2.90 to 10.56 μg L(-1), 0.06 to 0.12 mg kg(-1) and 0.03 to 0.21 mg kg(-1), respectively. Arsenic in wheat grains showed significant negative correlation with phosphate content in soil indicating a competitive uptake of arsenate and phosphate ions by plants. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis suggested that both natural and anthropogenic factors contribute to variation in As content and other variables studied in soil and groundwater samples. Total cancer risk and hazard index were higher than the USEPA safety limits of 1.00 × 10(-6) and 1, respectively, for both adults and children indicating a high risk of cancer and other health disorders. Consumption of As contaminated wheat grains was found to pose higher risk of cancer and non-cancer health disorders as compared to intake of As contaminated groundwater by both adults and children. Moreover, children were found to be more prone to cancer and other heath disorders due to As exposure via wheat grains and groundwater as compared to adults.

  3. Accuracy of quantitative visual soil assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, Maricke; Heuvelink, Gerard; Stoorvogel, Jetse; Wallinga, Jakob; de Boer, Imke; van Dam, Jos; van Essen, Everhard; Moolenaar, Simon; Verhoeven, Frank; Stoof, Cathelijne

    2016-04-01

    Visual soil assessment (VSA) is a method to assess soil quality visually, when standing in the field. VSA is increasingly used by farmers, farm organisations and companies, because it is rapid and cost-effective, and because looking at soil provides understanding about soil functioning. Often VSA is regarded as subjective, so there is a need to verify VSA. Also, many VSAs have not been fine-tuned for contrasting soil types. This could lead to wrong interpretation of soil quality and soil functioning when contrasting sites are compared to each other. We wanted to assess accuracy of VSA, while taking into account soil type. The first objective was to test whether quantitative visual field observations, which form the basis in many VSAs, could be validated with standardized field or laboratory measurements. The second objective was to assess whether quantitative visual field observations are reproducible, when used by observers with contrasting backgrounds. For the validation study, we made quantitative visual observations at 26 cattle farms. Farms were located at sand, clay and peat soils in the North Friesian Woodlands, the Netherlands. Quantitative visual observations evaluated were grass cover, number of biopores, number of roots, soil colour, soil structure, number of earthworms, number of gley mottles and soil compaction. Linear regression analysis showed that four out of eight quantitative visual observations could be well validated with standardized field or laboratory measurements. The following quantitative visual observations correlated well with standardized field or laboratory measurements: grass cover with classified images of surface cover; number of roots with root dry weight; amount of large structure elements with mean weight diameter; and soil colour with soil organic matter content. Correlation coefficients were greater than 0.3, from which half of the correlations were significant. For the reproducibility study, a group of 9 soil scientists and 7

  4. Applications of Quantitative Area Risk Assessment to the Manufactory of Civil Explosives%区域定量风险评价方法在民用爆炸物品生产企业中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    侯海周; 胡毅亭; 杨家福; 王大寰

    2011-01-01

    Dangerous sources in the manufactory of the civil explosives are the important factors affecting the level of area safety.A Quantitative Area Risk Assessment (QARA) method and its applications to the planning for dangerous sources were briefly introduced.A model of the method on area risk assessment is developed.The individual and social risk indexes, the acceptable risk levels of individual risk and social risk as well as the calculating procedures are briefly proposed based on the existing criteria of individual risk and social risk from other countries.The detailed steps, main work contents, and general methods concerned and noticed in the quantitative risk assessment procedure are given.These are very helpful to the applications of QARA.The QARA is utilized to assess the manufactory of the civil explosives.The individual risk contour and the social risk chart are obtained after the analysis.The method could not only reflect the distribution of regional risks, but also provide a decision support for the planning and layout of the risk sources in the manufactory of civil explosives.%为合理规划民用爆炸物品生产企业的危险源,明确企业对所在区域的影响,总结并完善了区域定量风险评价指标,建立了风险计算模型,给出了个人风险和社会风险的可接受标准,并对某民用爆炸物品生产企业进行了安全评估.通过分析计算,得到了该企业的个人风险等值线图和社会风险图.结果表明,该企业的个人风险和社会风险均未超过推荐标准的可接受风险水平,说明区域定量风险评价方法在民用爆炸物品生产企业的安全评价中具有应用价值,对民用爆炸物品生产企业的规划选址与总图布置具有一定的指导意义.

  5. Quantitative basin evaluation, a tool for reducing exploration risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    Over the last decade, the evaluation of the petroleum potential of sedimentary basins has shifted from a qualitative to a quantitative approach. This new perspective has led to the elaboration of basin simulators and a new discipline emerged: the basin modeling which is nowadays massively used by the oil industry. This methodology is an integration platform including geology, geochemistry and physics. Combined with uncertainty assessments, it is a powerful tool for reducing exploration risks. In this respect, IFP dedicates one of its IFP Sessions to 'Quantitative Basin Evaluation, a Tool for Reducing Exploration Risks'. This session was held on 18 June, 2001. The purpose of this workshop is to review the most modern advances used by professionals in the oil industry to improve the rate of hydrocarbon discovery and to lower exploration costs in frontier areas. IFP Sessions are conferences held for decision-makers and technical leaders to promote exchanges among involved parties: oil and gas companies, petroleum services and supply industries, engineering firms and research centers. Program: quantitative basin evaluation: the Berkine basin and its results; application of 2-D and 3-D basin modelling in the Gulf of Mexico; 2-D modelling in Brazilian sedimentary basins: lessons from recent case histories; quantitative modelling in the North Sea: towards a more confident assessment of the critical risks (*); uncertainties evaluation in petroleum system modelling (*); prediction of hydrocarbon type in the deep-water, Gulf of Mexico (*); constraining source and charge risk in deep-water areas - the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Angola (*); an overview of basin modelling and geochemistry activities in PDO; quantitative basin evaluation: how does it affect decision in exploration (*); panel discussion: evolution of the modelling tools. Abstracts are available only for 5 presentations (marked with (*)). (J.S.)

  6. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  7. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  8. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  9. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  10. Research on quantitative risk assessment in chemical park based on domino effect model%基于多米诺效应的化工园区定量风险评估方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马科伟; 朱建新; 包士毅

    2011-01-01

    In order to quantitatively assess the risk of chemical park, a domino-based model was introduced for modeling the domino-caused risks. The definition, characteristics and mechanism of domino effect were introduced in this model. The probability of damages and human vulnerabilities caused by different primary hazardous events was also proposed and then used for the quantitative assessment of both individual and societal risks created by the chemical park. The individual and societal risks (F N curve), together with associated quantitative methods were also involved. It was found that, by applying the method in real case, the risk caused by domino effect can be dramatically increased. This finding would be beneficial to the safety planning and risk management of chemical parks.%探讨了多米诺效应的定义,特点及其发生机理,对基于多米诺效应的定量风险评估方法进行了研究.针对不同初始事件的物理效应因素给出了目标设备损害几率的计算方法,运用人体损伤模型对事故后果进行定量分析,量化了风险,给出个人风险图和F-N社会风险曲线.实例计算表明:多米诺效应明显扩大了事故风险.通过多米诺效应分析有利于园区的安全规划和管理.

  11. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  12. A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bos, Peter M.J.; Boon, Polly E.; van der Voet, Hilko

    2009-01-01

    Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model...... provides quantitative information on these three parameters. A semi-quantitative tool is presented that combines information on these parameters into easy-readable charts that will facilitate risk evaluations of exposure situations and decisions on risk reduction measures. This tool is based on a concept...... of health impact categorization that has been successfully in force for several years within several emergency planning programs. Four health impact categories are distinguished: No-Health Impact, Low-Health Impact, Moderate-Health Impact and Severe-Health Impact. Two different charts are presented...

  13. Assessment of fracture risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanis, John A. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom)], E-mail: w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); McCloskey, Eugene V. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Osteoporosis Centre, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2009-09-15

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  14. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy green vegetables consumed at salad bars, based on modeling supply chain logistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; Franz, E

    2010-10-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference between simulating supply chain logistics (MOD) and assuming fixed storage times (FIX) in microbial risk estimation for the supply chain of fresh-cut leafy green vegetables destined for working-canteen salad bars. The results of the FIX model were previously published (E. Franz, S. O. Tromp, H. Rijgersberg, and H. J. van der Fels-Klerx, J. Food Prot. 73:274-285, 2010). Pathogen growth was modeled using stochastic discrete-event simulation of the applied logistics concept. The public health effects were assessed by conducting an exposure assessment and risk characterization. The relative growths of Escherichia coli O157 (17%) and Salmonella enterica (15%) were identical in the MOD and FIX models. In contrast, the relative growth of Listeria monocytogenes was considerably higher in the MOD model (1,156%) than in the FIX model (194%). The probability of L. monocytogenes infection in The Netherlands was higher in the MOD model (5.18×10(-8)) than in the FIX model (1.23×10(-8)). The risk of listeriosis-induced fetal mortality in the perinatal population increased from 1.24×10(-4) (FIX) to 1.66×10(-4) (MOD). Modeling the probabilistic nature of supply chain logistics is of additional value for microbial risk assessments regarding psychrotrophic pathogens in food products for which time and temperature are the postharvest preventive measures in guaranteeing food safety.

  15. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  16. RISK ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE FOR CIVIL AIRPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Distefano

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A practical problem in air transport is how to manage risk and safety. In recent years have been developed special technical and managerial skills to the systematic, forward looking identification and control of hazards throughout the life cycle of a project, program, or activity. Safety Management System (SMS involves identifying, evaluating, and addressing of hazards or risk. Its sole purpose is to prevent accidents. Safety risk assessment is defined as the systematic identification and evaluation of the risk posed by the complete spectrum of possible accident scenarios. Risk assessment is a tool that supports decision making and as such supports risk management. Risk management comprises the safety optimization of the system, the verification process and risk acceptance, which support airport operations. This paper proposed a quantitative methodology for the risk assessment for a civil airport, which is based on historical data of aircraft accidents, contained in the Aviation Safety Network database, from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2010.

  17. QUANTITATIVE RISK MAPPING OF URBAN GAS PIPELINE NETWORKS USING GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Azari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Natural gas is considered an important source of energy in the world. By increasing growth of urbanization, urban gas pipelines which transmit natural gas from transmission pipelines to consumers, will become a dense network. The increase in the density of urban pipelines will influence probability of occurring bad accidents in urban areas. These accidents have a catastrophic effect on people and their property. Within the next few years, risk mapping will become an important component in urban planning and management of large cities in order to decrease the probability of accident and to control them. Therefore, it is important to assess risk values and determine their location on urban map using an appropriate method. In the history of risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks, the pipelines has always been considered one by one and their density in urban area has not been considered. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of several pipelines on the risk value of a specific grid point. This paper outlines a quantitative risk assessment method for analysing the risk of urban natural gas pipeline networks. It consists of two main parts: failure rate calculation where the EGIG historical data are used and fatal length calculation that involves calculation of gas release and fatality rate of consequences. We consider jet fire, fireball and explosion for investigating the consequences of gas pipeline failure. The outcome of this method is an individual risk and is shown as a risk map.

  18. Issues in qualitative and quantitative risk analysis for developmental toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmel, C A; Gaylor, D W

    1988-03-01

    The qualitative and quantitative evaluation of risk in developmental toxicology has been discussed in several recent publications. A number of issues still are to be resolved in this area. The qualitative evaluation and interpretation of end points in developmental toxicology depends on an understanding of the biological events leading to the end points observed, the relationships among end points, and their relationship to dose and to maternal toxicity. The interpretation of these end points is also affected by the statistical power of the experiments used for detecting the various end points observed. The quantitative risk assessment attempts to estimate human risk for developmental toxicity as a function of dose. The current approach is to apply safety (uncertainty) factors to the no observed effect level (NOEL). An alternative presented and discussed here is to model the experimental data and apply a safety factor to an estimated risk level to achieve an "acceptable" level of risk. In cases where the dose-response curves upward, this approach provides a conservative estimate of risk. This procedure does not preclude the existence of a threshold dose. More research is needed to develop appropriate dose-response models that can provide better estimates for low-dose extrapolation of developmental effects.

  19. Physiologic basis for understanding quantitative dehydration assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheuvront, Samuel N; Kenefick, Robert W; Charkoudian, Nisha; Sawka, Michael N

    2013-03-01

    Dehydration (body water deficit) is a physiologic state that can have profound implications for human health and performance. Unfortunately, dehydration can be difficult to assess, and there is no single, universal gold standard for decision making. In this article, we review the physiologic basis for understanding quantitative dehydration assessment. We highlight how phenomenologic interpretations of dehydration depend critically on the type (dehydration compared with volume depletion) and magnitude (moderate compared with severe) of dehydration, which in turn influence the osmotic (plasma osmolality) and blood volume-dependent compensatory thresholds for antidiuretic and thirst responses. In particular, we review new findings regarding the biological variation in osmotic responses to dehydration and discuss how this variation can help provide a quantitative and clinically relevant link between the physiology and phenomenology of dehydration. Practical measures with empirical thresholds are provided as a starting point for improving the practice of dehydration assessment.

  20. Quantitative risk assessment of haemolytic and uremic syndrome linked to O157:H7 and non-O157:H7 Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli strains in raw milk soft cheeses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrin, Frédérique; Tenenhaus-Aziza, Fanny; Michel, Valérie; Miszczycha, Stéphane; Bel, Nadège; Sanaa, Moez

    2015-01-01

    Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) strains may cause human infections ranging from simple diarrhea to Haemolytic Uremic Syndrome (HUS). The five main pathogenic serotypes of STEC (MPS-STEC) identified thus far in Europe are O157:H7, O26:H11, O103:H2, O111:H8, and O145:H28. Because STEC strains can survive or grow during cheese making, particularly in soft cheeses, a stochastic quantitative microbial risk assessment model was developed to assess the risk of HUS associated with the five MPS-STEC in raw milk soft cheeses. A baseline scenario represents a theoretical worst-case scenario where no intervention was considered throughout the farm-to-fork continuum. The risk level assessed with this baseline scenario is the risk-based level. The impact of seven preharvest scenarios (vaccines, probiotic, milk farm sorting) on the risk-based level was expressed in terms of risk reduction. Impact of the preharvest intervention ranges from 76% to 98% of risk reduction with highest values predicted with scenarios combining a decrease of the number of cow shedding STEC and of the STEC concentration in feces. The impact of postharvest interventions on the risk-based level was also tested by applying five microbiological criteria (MC) at the end of ripening. The five MCs differ in terms of sample size, the number of samples that may yield a value larger than the microbiological limit, and the analysis methods. The risk reduction predicted varies from 25% to 96% by applying MCs without preharvest interventions and from 1% to 96% with combination of pre- and postharvest interventions.

  1. Quantitative farm-to-fork risk assessment model for norovirus and hepatitis A virus in European leafy green vegetable and berry fruit supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwknegt, Martijn; Verhaelen, Katharina; Rzeżutka, Artur; Kozyra, Iwona; Maunula, Leena; von Bonsdorff, Carl-Henrik; Vantarakis, Apostolos; Kokkinos, Petros; Petrovic, Tamas; Lazic, Sava; Pavlik, Ivo; Vasickova, Petra; Willems, Kris A; Havelaar, Arie H; Rutjes, Saskia A; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

    2015-04-02

    Fresh produce that is contaminated with viruses may lead to infection and viral gastroenteritis or hepatitis when consumed raw. It is thus important to reduce virus numbers on these foods. Prevention of virus contamination in fresh produce production and processing may be more effective than treatment, as sufficient virus removal or inactivation by post-harvest treatment requires high doses that may adversely affect food quality. To date knowledge of the contribution of various potential contamination routes is lacking. A risk assessment model was developed for human norovirus, hepatitis A virus and human adenovirus in raspberry and salad vegetable supply chains to quantify contributions of potential contamination sources to the contamination of produce at retail. These models were used to estimate public health risks. Model parameterization was based on monitoring data from European supply chains and literature data. No human pathogenic viruses were found in the soft fruit supply chains; human adenovirus (hAdV) was detected, which was additionally monitored as an indicator of fecal pollution to assess the contribution of potential contamination points. Estimated risks per serving of lettuce based on the models were 3×10(-4) (6×10(-6)-5×10(-3)) for NoV infection and 3×10(-8) (7×10(-10)-3×10(-6)) for hepatitis A jaundice. The contribution to virus contamination of hand-contact was larger as compared with the contribution of irrigation, the conveyor belt or the water used for produce rinsing. In conclusion, viral contamination in the lettuce and soft fruit supply chains occurred and estimated health risks were generally low. Nevertheless, the 97.5% upper limit for the estimated NoV contamination of lettuce suggested that infection risks up to 50% per serving might occur. Our study suggests that attention to full compliance for hand hygiene will improve fresh produce safety related to virus risks most as compared to the other examined sources, given the

  2. Semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings for the landslide risk analysis. A case study in the Loures municipality, Lisbon district, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillard-Gonçalves, Clémence; Zêzere, José Luis; Pereira, Susana; Garcia, Ricardo

    2016-04-01

    The physical vulnerability of the buildings of Loures (a Portuguese municipality) to landslides was assessed, and the landslide risk was computed as the product of the landslide hazard by the vulnerability and the market economic value of the buildings. First, the hazard was assessed by combining the spatio-temporal probability and the frequency-magnitude relationship of the landslides, which was established by plotting the probability of a landslide area. The susceptibility of deep-seated and shallow landslides was assessed by a bi-variate statistical method and was mapped. The annual and multiannual spatio-temporal probabilities were estimated, providing a landslide hazard model. Then, an assessment of buildings vulnerability to landslides, based on an inquiry of a pool of landslide European experts, was developed and applied to the study area. The inquiry was based on nine magnitude scenarios and four structural building types. A sub-pool of the landslide experts who know the study area was extracted from the pool, and the variability of the answers coming from the pool and the sub-pool was assessed with standard deviation. Moreover, the average vulnerability of the basic geographic entities was compared by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site (included in the study area), the inventory of which was listed on the field. Next, the market economic value of the buildings was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services approach. Finally, the annual and multiannual landslide risk was computed for the nine landslide magnitude scenarios and different spatio-temporal probabilities by multiplying the potential loss (Vulnerability × Economic Value) by the hazard probability. As a rule, the vulnerability values given by the sub-pool of experts who know the study area are higher than those given by the European experts, namely for the high magnitude landslides. The obtained vulnerabilities vary from 0

  3. Simulation Analysis of Quantitative Analysis Model of Personal Credit Risk Assessment in Commercial Banks%商业银行个人信贷风险评估的定量分析模型仿真分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宋强; 刘洋

    2015-01-01

    商业银行个人信贷受到管理不到位、风险信息管理系统滞后等因素的影响,需要进行商业银行个人信贷风险评估的定量分析模型构建,提高商业银行信贷风险管理的能力。提出一种基于多层步进动态评估的商业银行个人信贷风险评估的定量分析模型。首先进行了商业银行个人信贷风险种类分析和影响因素分析,构建商业银行个人信贷的风险评估参量评价体系,根据先期的数据分析,计算得到商业银行个人信贷风险标准中的等级梯度值,进行商业银行个人信贷风险评估的定量分析模型优化设计。仿真结果表明,采用该模型进行商业银行个人信贷风险评估的定量分析,数据分析拟合结果准确,能有效抵御信贷风险,通过多渠道建立有效的损失补偿机制,提高商业银行的信贷风险防控能力。%Personal credit in commercial banks affected by factors such as not in place management and lagged behind risk information management system, it is necessary to build up the quantitative analysis model of personal credit risk as⁃sessment in commercial banks to improve their capacity in credit risk management. Therefore, a kind of quantitative anal⁃ysis model of personal credit risk assessment in commercial banks is proposed based on multilayer step-by-step dynamic assessment. First, the article analyzes the types and influence factors of commercial banks' personal credit risks, then es⁃ tablish the parameters evaluation system of personal credit risk assessment in commercial banks, according to preliminary data analysis, calculates the rank gradient value in the personal credit risk standard of commercial banks, then optimizes the design of quantitative analysis model for commercial banks' personal credit risk assessment. The simulation results show that adopting this model to proceed the quantitative analysis for personal credit risk assessment of commercial

  4. Quantitative risk assessment for hazards that arise from non-proteolytic Clostridium botulinum in minimally processed chilled dairy-based foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malakar, P K; Barker, G C; Peck, M W

    2011-04-01

    A modular process risk model has been constructed that describes the manufacture of dairy dessert products and hazards that arise from non-proteolytic Clostridium botulinum. The model describes batch manufacture and consumer storage of a family size generic dairy dessert but includes a realistic quantification that could apply to a specific food product. The dairy dessert sector is an expanding part of the UK market. The model includes modules that describe spore loads in raw materials, spore inactivation during thermal processing, volume partition and the population kinetics for non-proteolytic C. botulinum during sequential isothermal storage regimes. Where possible elements of uncertainty and variability are identified explicitly. The model is constructed as a belief network from published data and expert opinions. The model provides marginal probabilities, and associated sensitivities, for a range of endpoint measures centred on the toxicity of a single retail unit after an extended period of storage. The decimal reduction time for non-proteolytic C. botulinum spore populations at the highest (hold) temperature of the primary thermal process and the highest temperature experienced during poorly controlled (consumer) storage are dominant factors determining risks. Priorities for additional information to support risk assessments have been identified.

  5. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  6. Latest developments in foodborne pathogen risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Membré, Jeanne Marie; Guillou, Sandrine

    2016-01-01

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) is a structured process for determining the public health risk associated with foodborne pathogens. In recent years, there has been a strong tendency in providing food safety decisions based upon quantitative assessment. Especially, variability and uncertainty inherent to biological processes have been integrated in food safety management through the use of powerful statistical and probabilistic techniques. Besides, recent developments in omic technologie...

  7. Quantitative risk assessment of listeriosis-associated deaths due to Listeria monocytogenes contamination of deli meats originating from manufacture and retail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Abani K; Ivanek, Renata; Gröhn, Yrjö T; Bukowski, Robert; Geornaras, Ifigenia; Sofos, John N; Wiedmann, Martin

    2010-04-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the relative risk of listeriosis-associated deaths attributable to Listeria monocytogenes contamination in ham and turkey formulated without and with growth inhibitors (GIs). Two contamination scenarios were investigated: (i) prepackaged deli meats with contamination originating solely from manufacture at a frequency of 0.4% (based on reported data) and (ii) retail-sliced deli meats with contamination originating solely from retail at a frequency of 2.3% (based on reported data). Using a manufacture-to-consumption risk assessment with product-specific growth kinetic parameters (i.e., lag phase and exponential growth rate), reformulation with GIs was estimated to reduce human listeriosis deaths linked to ham and turkey by 2.8- and 9-fold, respectively, when contamination originated at manufacture and by 1.9- and 2.8-fold, respectively, for products contaminated at retail. Contamination originating at retail was estimated to account for 76 and 63% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated without GIs and for 83 and 84% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated with GIs. Sensitivity analyses indicated that storage temperature was the most important factor affecting the estimation of per annum relative risk. Scenario analyses suggested that reducing storage temperature in home refrigerators to consistently below 7 degrees C would greatly reduce the risk of human listeriosis deaths, whereas reducing storage time appeared to be less effective. Overall, our data indicate a critical need for further development and implementation of effective control strategies to reduce L. monocytogenes contamination at the retail level.

  8. Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin E Conners

    Full Text Available Increasingly, 'place', including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC, whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1 Participatory mapping; 2 Quantitative interviews; 3 Sex work venue field observation; 4 Time-location-activity diaries; 5 In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions.

  9. Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conners, Erin E.; West, Brooke S.; Roth, Alexis M.; Meckel-Parker, Kristen G.; Kwan, Mei-Po; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Staines-Orozco, Hugo; Clapp, John D.; Brouwer, Kimberly C.

    2016-01-01

    Increasingly, ‘place’, including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC), whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs) in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1) Participatory mapping; 2) Quantitative interviews; 3) Sex work venue field observation; 4) Time-location-activity diaries; 5) In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions. PMID:27191846

  10. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Saroff, L. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  11. Physiologic Basis for Understanding Quantitative Dehydration Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative Dehydration Sb. GRANT NUMBER Assessment Sc. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Sd. PROJECT NUMBER Samuel Cheuvront; Robert Kenefick; Nisha...of the statistical prob- ability for dehydration. Semantic descriptors provide a scale that aligned with statistical probability to communicate the...cryoscopy. JAMA 1968;205:506–12. 30. Mange K, Matsuura D, Cizman B, Soto H, Ziyadeh FN, Goldfarb S, Neilson EG. Language guiding therapy: the case of

  12. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  13. Quantitative Assessment of the IT Agile Transformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orłowski Cezary

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present the quantitative perspective of the agile transformation processes in IT organisations. The phenomenon of agile transformation becomes a complex challenge for an IT organisation since it has not been analysed in detail so far. There is no research on the readiness of IT organisations to realise agile transformation processes. Such processes also prove to have uncontrolled character. Therefore, to minimise the risk of failure referring to the realisation of transformation processes, it is necessary to monitor them. It is also necessary to identify and analyse such processes to ensure their continuous character.

  14. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  15. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  16. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  17. An IOT Security Risk Autonomic Assessment Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengchao Ma

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In terms of Internet of Things (IOT system with the possibility criterion of fuzziness and randomness security risk, we qualitatively analyze the security risk level of IOT security scene by describing generalization metrics the potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of every major threat scenarios. On this basis, we proposed self-assessment algorithm of IOT security risk, adopting three-dimensional normal cloud model integrated consideration of risk indicators, researching the multi-rule mapping relationship between the qualitative input of safety indicators and the quantitative reasoning of self-assessment. Finally, we build security risk assessment simulation platform, and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm in the premise of substantiating the risk level and the safety criterion domain.

  18. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  19. Quantitative assessment of the risk of microbial spoilage in foods. Prediction of non-stability at 55 °C caused by Geobacillus stearothermophilus in canned green beans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigaux, Clémence; André, Stéphane; Albert, Isabelle; Carlin, Frédéric

    2014-02-03

    Microbial spoilage of canned foods by thermophilic and highly heat-resistant spore-forming bacteria, such as Geobacillus stearothermophilus, is a persistent problem in the food industry. An incubation test at 55 °C for 7 days, then validation of biological stability, is used as an indicator of compliance with good manufacturing practices. We propose a microbial risk assessment model predicting the percentage of non-stability due to G. stearothermophilus in canned green beans manufactured by a French company. The model accounts for initial microbial contaminations of fresh unprocessed green beans with G. stearothermophilus, cross-contaminations in the processing chain, inactivation processes and probability of survival and growth. The sterilization process is modeled by an equivalent heating time depending on sterilization value F₀ and on G. stearothermophilus resistance parameter z(T). Following the recommendations of international organizations, second order Monte-Carlo simulations are used, separately propagating uncertainty and variability on parameters. As a result of the model, the mean predicted non-stability rate is of 0.5%, with a 95% uncertainty interval of [0.1%; 1.2%], which is highly similar to data communicated by the French industry. A sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices and some scenario tests underline the importance of cross-contamination at the blanching step, in addition to inactivation due to the sterilization process.

  20. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  1. Quantitative wearable sensors for objective assessment of Parkinson's disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maetzler, W.; Domingos, J.; Srulijes, K.; Ferreira, J.J.; Bloem, B.R.

    2013-01-01

    There is a rapidly growing interest in the quantitative assessment of Parkinson's disease (PD)-associated signs and disability using wearable technology. Both persons with PD and their clinicians see advantages in such developments. Specifically, quantitative assessments using wearable technology

  2. [Study on application of two risk assessment methods in coal dust occupational health risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, B; Zhang, Y L; Chen, Y Q

    2017-04-20

    Objective: To evaluate the applicability of quantitative grading method (GBZ/T 229.1-2010) and occupational hazard risk index method in coal dust occupational health risk assessment. Methods: Taking 4 coal mines as the research object of risk assessment and making occupational health field testing and investigation. Based on two risk assessment methods, we analysed the health risk levels of 20 occupations which were exposed to coal dust in workplaces. Results: Coal dust working post had different risk levels in 4 coal mines, the post of higher risk level were mainly concentrated in the underground workplace of coal mine, especially the post of coal mining and tunneling system. The two risk assessment results showed that the risk levels of coal-mining machine drivers and tunneling machine drivers were the highest. The risk levels of coal dust working post used by two risk assessment methods had no significant difference (P>0.05) and were highly correlated (r=0.821, Prisk assessment methods were supported by the field investigation and literatures. Conclusion: The two risk assessment methods can be used in coal dust occupational health risk assessment.

  3. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  4. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  5. Estimation of prevalence of Salmonella on pig carcasses and pork joints, using a quantitative risk assessment model aided by meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Ursula Gonzales; Soumpasis, Ilias; Butler, Francis; Prendergast, Deirdre; Duggan, Sharon; Duffy, Geraldine

    2009-02-01

    This risk assessment study aimed to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella on pig carcasses and pork joints produced in slaughterhouses, on the basis that within groups of slaughter there is a strong association between the proportion of Salmonella-positive animals entering the slaughter lines (x) and the resulting proportion of contaminated eviscerated pig carcasses (y). To this effect, the results of a number of published studies reporting estimates of x and y were assembled in order to model a stochastic weighted regression considering the sensitivities of the diverse Salmonella culture methods. Meta-analysis was used to assign weights to the regression and to estimate the overall effect of chilling on Salmonella incidence on pig carcasses. The model's ability to produce accurate estimates and the intrinsic effectiveness of the modeling capabilities of meta-analysis were appraised using Irish data for the input parameter of prevalence of Salmonella carrier slaughter pigs. The model approximated a Salmonella prevalence in pork joints from Irish boning halls of 4.0% (95% confidence interval, 0.3 to 12.0%) and was validated by the results of a large survey (n = 720) of Salmonella in pork joints (mean, 3.3%; 95% confidence interval, 2.0 to 4.6%) carried out in four commercial pork abattoirs as part of this research project. Sensitivity analysis reinforced the importance of final rinsing (r = -0.382) and chilling (r = -0.221) as stages that contribute to reducing considerably the occurrence of Salmonella on the final product, while hygiene practices during jointing seemed to moderate only marginally the amount of contaminated pork joints. Finally, the adequacy of meta-analysis for integrating different findings and producing distributions for use in stochastic modeling was demonstrated.

  6. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung-Hee Choi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

  7. A quantitative model for volcanic hazard assessment

    OpenAIRE

    W. Marzocchi; Sandri, L.; Furlan, C

    2006-01-01

    Volcanic hazard assessment is a basic ingredient for risk-based decision-making in land-use planning and emergency management. Volcanic hazard is defined as the probability of any particular area being affected by a destructive volcanic event within a given period of time (Fournier d’Albe 1979). The probabilistic nature of such an important issue derives from the fact that volcanic activity is a complex process, characterized by several and usually unknown degrees o...

  8. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria....... Seven studies had high quality, 35 moderate and the rest poor quality. The accuracy of multivariate models was higher for pre-school children than for schoolchildren/adolescents. However, the models had seldom been validated in independent populations, making their accuracy uncertain. Of the single...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited...

  9. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... of guidance documents. These deal with the peer review of existing pest risk assessments, a framework for conducting risk assessments which harmonise standards set by the International Plant Protection Convention and the legislative requirements of the EU, and extension of this framework to include......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  10. Information Risk Management: Qualitative or Quantitative? Cross industry lessons from medical and financial fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upasna Saluja

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises across the world are taking a hard look at their risk management practices. A number of qualitative and quantitative models and approaches are employed by risk practitioners to keep risk under check. As a norm most organizations end up choosing the more flexible, easier to deploy and customize qualitative models of risk assessment. In practice one sees that such models often call upon the practitioners to make qualitative judgments on a relative rating scale which brings in considerable room for errors, biases and subjectivity. On the other hand under the quantitative risk analysis approach, estimation of risk is connected with application of numerical measures of some kind. Medical risk management models lend themselves as ideal candidates for deriving lessons for Information Security Risk Management. We can use this considerably developed understanding of risk management from the medical field especially Survival Analysis towards handling risks that information infrastructures face. Similarly, financial risk management discipline prides itself on perhaps the most quantifiable of models in risk management. Market Risk and Credit Risk Information Security Risk Management can make risk measurement more objective and quantitative by referring to the approach of Credit Risk. During the recent financial crisis many investors and financial institutions lost money or went bankrupt respectively, because they did not apply the basic principles of risk management. Learning from the financial crisis provides some valuable lessons for information risk management.

  11. Information Risk Management: Qualitative or Quantitative? Cross industry lessons from medical and financial fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upasna Saluja

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises across the world are taking a hard look at their risk management practices. A number of qualitative and quantitative models and approaches are employed by risk practitioners to keep risk under check. As a norm most organizations end up choosing the more flexible, easier to deploy and customize qualitative models of risk assessment. In practice one sees that such models often call upon the practitioners to make qualitative judgments on a relative rating scale which brings in considerable room for errors, biases and subjectivity. On the other hand under the quantitative risk analysis approach, estimation of risk is connected with application of numerical measures of some kind. Medical risk management models lend themselves as ideal candidates for deriving lessons for Information Security Risk Management. We can use this considerably developed understanding of risk management from the medical field especially Survival Analysis towards handling risks that information infrastructures face. Similarly, financial risk management discipline prides itself on perhaps the most quantifiable of models in risk management. Market Risk and Credit Risk Information Security Risk Management can make risk measurement more objective and quantitative by referring to the approach of Credit Risk. During the recent financial crisis many investors and financial institutions lost money or went bankrupt respectively, because they did not apply the basic principles of risk management. Learning from the financial crisis provides some valuable lessons for information risk management.

  12. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing foodregulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  13. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SIMONBROOKE-TAYLOR

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supple,The World Trade Oranization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.The relevant international organization for food standards,the Codex Alimentarius Commission,recognises risk analysis,and its component parts risk assessment,risk management and risk communication as the basis for scientific decision-making,Risk assessment comprises two activities:hazard evaluation;and exposure estimation.A hazard may be chemical,microbiological or nutritional in origin,The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation y four examples involving:(1) food additives,(2) microiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses,(3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  14. 鲜肉中小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌的半定量风险评估%Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment of Yersinia enterocolitica in Fresh Meat

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王凯; 王虎虎; 叶可萍; 王光宇; 徐幸莲; 周光宏

    2014-01-01

    目的:分析南京市售鲜肉中小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌的风险程度。方法:将国内外文献报道及市场调查数据的统计分析相结合,运用经典的半定量风险评估软件“Risk Ranger”进行风险分级。结果:南京市售猪肉和牛肉中小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌的风险评分分别为31和24,每人每天因食用污染该菌的鲜肉造成食物中毒的概率分别为3.62×10-9,3.12×10-10,前者为后者风险的11.6倍。通过进一步研究发现,加工后采取有效的控制体系,均使两者的风险均降低到10%。结论:南京市售牛肉中小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌的风险程度较低,而市售猪肉中已接近中等程度,需做好预防措施,加强监管。%To analyze the risk of Yersinia enterocolitica contamination in commercial fresh meat in Nanjing. Methods: Risk rating was based on the classic semi-quantitative risk assessment software Risk Ranger combined with literature reports and market research data. Results:Relative risk from Yersinia enterocolitica in commercial fresh pork and beef in Nanjing was 31 and 24, respectively. The probability of food poisoning per day per consumer of interest was 3.62×10-9 and 3.12×10-10, respectively. Risk from the former showed an 11.6-fold increase over that from the latter. In further study, we found that the risks from the two kinds of commercial fresh meat could be reduced to one tenth of the original value by using control systems after processing. Conclusions:The risk of Yersinia enterocolitica contamination in commercial fresh beef in Nanjing is relatively low, but the risk in commercial fresh pork is near the moderate hazard. Consequently, the supervision and management of commercial fresh meat should be strengthened.

  15. A quantitative assessment of LCOs for operations using system dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kyung, Min Kang [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Hanyang University, 17 Haengdang-Dong, Sungdong-Gu, Seoul 133-791 (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moosung [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Hanyang University, 17 Haengdang-Dong, Sungdong-Gu, Seoul 133-791 (Korea, Republic of)]. E-mail: jae@hanyang.ac.kr

    2005-02-01

    Limiting conditions for operations (LCOs) define the allowed outage times (AOTs) and the actions to be taken if the repair cannot be completed within the AOT. Typically plant shutdown is required. In situations where the risk associated with the action, i.e. the risk of plant shutdown given a failure of the safety system, may be substantial, a strategy is needed to control the plant risk. In this study the changing operation modes are evaluated quantitatively and dynamically using the tool of system dynamics. System dynamics has been developed to analyze the dynamic reliability of a complicated system. System dynamics using the Vensim software have been applied to LCOs assessment for an example system, the auxiliary feed water system of a reference nuclear power plant. Analysis results of both full power operation and shutdown operation have been compared for a measure of core damage frequency. The increase in core damage frequency is used as a measure in this study. A time dependent framework developed in this study has been shown to be very flexible in that it can be applied to assess LCOs quantitatively under any operational context of the Technical Specifications in Final Safety Analysis Report of the reference plant.

  16. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  17. Paediatric HUS Cases Related to the Consumption of Raw Milk Sold by Vending Machines in Italy: Quantitative Risk Assessment Based on Escherichia coli O157 Official Controls over 7 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, F; Bonilauri, P; Piva, S; Scavia, G; Amatiste, S; Bianchi, D M; Losio, M N; Bilei, S; Cascone, G; Comin, D; Daminelli, P; Decastelli, L; Merialdi, G; Mioni, R; Peli, A; Petruzzelli, A; Tonucci, F; Liuzzo, G; Serraino, A

    2016-12-19

    A quantitative risk assessment (RA) was developed to estimate haemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) cases in paediatric population associated with the consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. The historical national evolution of raw milk consumption phenomenon since 2008, when consumer interest started to grow, and after 7 years of marketing adjustment, is outlined. Exposure assessment was based on the official Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC) microbiological records of raw milk samples from vending machines monitored by the regional Veterinary Authorities from 2008 to 2014, microbial growth during storage, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, consumption preference and age of consumers. The differential risk considered milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst time-temperature field handling conditions detected. In case of boiling milk before consumption, we assumed that the risk of HUS is fixed at zero. The model estimates clearly show that the public health significance of HUS cases due to raw milk STEC contamination depends on the current variability surrounding the risk profile of the food and the consumer behaviour has more impact than milk storage scenario. The estimated HUS cases predicted by our model are roughly in line with the effective STEC O157-associated HUS cases notified in Italy only when the proportion of consumers not boiling milk before consumption is assumed to be 1%. Raw milk consumption remains a source of E. coli O157:H7 for humans, but its overall relevance is likely to have subsided and significant caution should be exerted for temporal, geographical and consumers behaviour analysis. Health education programmes and regulatory actions are required to educate people, primarily children, on other STEC sources.

  18. 高含硫气田集气站设备定量风险评价%A Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Equipments of High-sulfur Gas Field Gathering Station

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭清磊; 陈国明; 付建民

    2012-01-01

    In order to prevent accidents and to a develop inspection strategy, a quantitative risk assessment for equipments of high-sulfur gas field gathering station is performed. Firstly, generic failure frequencies of key equipments in gas gathering station are got by DNVs Leak frequency database, then failure frequencies of key equipments are got by using API581 to modify generic failure frequency. Fire, explosion and toxic effect regions for four typical release hole sizes in equipments are calculated by applying PHAST software to determine the risk of fire, explosion and toxicity. The results show that equipment risks can be made by this method.%为预防高含硫天然气泄漏事故和制定设备检测策略,对集气站设备进行定量风险评价.利用DNV Leak数据库得到集气站关键设备的同类失效频率,利用API 581标准对同类失效频率修正得到失效频率.用PHAST软件计算4种典型泄漏孔尺寸的燃烧爆炸和毒性的影响区域范围,确定设备的燃烧爆炸风险和毒性风险.结果表明,利用该方法能够确定设备风险大小顺序.

  19. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  20. Semi-quantitative risk assessment for Staphylococcus aureus in raw milk%生乳中金黄色葡萄球菌污染半定量风险评估研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘弘; 顾其芳; 吴春峰; 袁微嘉; 秦璐昕; 邢之慧

    2011-01-01

    目的 探索上海市生乳中金黄色葡萄球菌污染的风险.方法 按微生物风险评估的程序,应用半定量风险评估软件(risk ranger)结合流行病学调查和微生物检测等.结果 上海市金黄色葡萄球菌肠毒素性食物中毒列报告的细菌性食物中毒暴发事件第3位;金黄色葡萄球菌肠毒索性食物中毒的严重性中等、全人群易感;4-6月上海市生乳中金黄色葡萄球菌污染率为72.0%,乳及乳制品日均消费量达86.60g/人;假设生乳在加工前金黄色葡萄球菌超过105CFU/g的概率为1/1 000,则每人每天因食用污染金黄色葡萄球菌污染乳及乳制品引起食物中毒的概率为2.5×10-1,每年因金黄色葡萄球菌污染乳及乳制品食物中毒病例数862人,风险等级49.结论 上海市生乳中金黄色葡萄球菌污染的风险程度属于中等,需加强监管.%Objective To evaluate the risk of Staphylococcus aureus in raw milk in Shanghai by semi-quantitative risk assessment. Methods Based on the basic procedure of microbial risk assessment, a semi-quantitative risk assessment software (risk ranger) combining with epidemiological survey and microbial tests was applied. Results The reported outbreaks of foodborn poisoning caused by staphylococcal intoxication were the third of important bacterial food poisoning accidents in Shanghai. Staphylococcal intoxication is moderate hazard and susceptible for all populations. The contamination rate of Staphylococcus aureus in raw milk was 72.0% in Shanghai. The average consumption of milk and milk products was 86. 60 grams per person per day. If the probability of contamination was one thousandth, the CFU of Staphylococcus aureus in raw milk would be more than 105 per gram of raw milk before processing, the probability of food poisoning per day per consumer of interest would be 2.5 × 10 -7, the total predicted food poisoning per annum in population of interest would be 862 and the risk ranking was 49

  1. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  2. Extracting additional risk managers information from a risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in deli meats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, F.; Asselt, van E.D.; García-Gimeno, R.M.; Zurera, G.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2007-01-01

    The risk assessment study of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods conducted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is an example of an extensive quantitative microbiological risk assessment that could be used by risk analysts and other scientists to obtain information and by managers and s

  3. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    as a powerful tool for the evaluation of potential health consequences of planned measures. It is often discussed whether HIA is not just another term or form of risk assessment and what is their relation. Our aim is to discuss similarities and differences between the two methods so as to clarify......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...... standardised scientific methods to characterise the probability and magnitude of harm caused by a hazard, preferably in a quantitative manner. In turn, HIA is a process to assess future impacts of recent proposals and is dominated by qualitative evaluation. It makes a projection for a future scenario rather...

  4. Quantitative assessment of the influence of TP63 gene polymorphisms and lung cancer risk: evidence based on 93,751 subjects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several genome-wide association studies on lung cancer (LC have reported similar findings of a new susceptibility locus, 3q28. After that, a number of studies reported that the rs10937405, and rs4488809 polymorphism in chromosome 3q28 has been implicated in LC risk. However, the studies have yielded contradictory results. METHODS: PubMed, ISI web of science, EMBASE and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases were systematically searched to identify relevant studies. Data were abstracted independently by two reviewers. A meta-analysis was performed to examine the association between rs10937405, rs4488809 polymorphism at 3q28 and susceptibility to LC. Odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs were calculated. Heterogeneity and publication bias were also tested. RESULTS: A total of 9 studies including 35,961 LC cases and 57,790 controls were involved in this meta-analysis. An overall random-effects per-allele OR of1.19 (95% CI: 1.14-1.25; P<10(-5 and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.13-1.25; P<10(-5 was found for the rs10937405 and rs4488809 polymorphism respectively. Similar results were also observed using dominant or recessive genetic model. After stratified by ethnicity, significant associations were found among East Asians (per-allele OR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.17-1.27; P<10(-5; whereas no significant associations were found among Caucasians for rs10937405. In the sub-group analysis by sample size, significantly increased risks were found for these polymorphisms in all genetic models. When analyzed according to histological type, the effects of rs10937405, and rs4488809 at 3q28 on the risk of lung cancer were significant mostly for lung adenocarcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrated that rs10937405-G allele and rs4488809-G allele might be risk-conferring factors for the development of lung cancer, especially for East Asian populations.

  5. Quantitative methods for assessing drug synergism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tallarida, Ronald J

    2011-11-01

    Two or more drugs that individually produce overtly similar effects will sometimes display greatly enhanced effects when given in combination. When the combined effect is greater than that predicted by their individual potencies, the combination is said to be synergistic. A synergistic interaction allows the use of lower doses of the combination constituents, a situation that may reduce adverse reactions. Drug combinations are quite common in the treatment of cancers, infections, pain, and many other diseases and situations. The determination of synergism is a quantitative pursuit that involves a rigorous demonstration that the combination effect is greater than that which is expected from the individual drug's potencies. The basis of that demonstration is the concept of dose equivalence, which is discussed here and applied to an experimental design and data analysis known as isobolographic analysis. That method, and a related method of analysis that also uses dose equivalence, are presented in this brief review, which provides the mathematical basis for assessing synergy and an optimization strategy for determining the dose combination.

  6. Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of rabies into Japan through the illegal landing of dogs from Russian fishing boats in the ports of Hokkaido, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwan, Nigel C L; Ogawa, Hidehito; Yamada, Akio; Sugiura, Katsuaki

    2016-06-01

    Japan has been free from rabies since 1958 and various preventive measures are in place protecting the country from the introduction of the disease. Historical reviews indicate that the illegal landing of dogs from Russian fishing boats in the ports of Hokkaido occurred frequently especially in the early 2000s and this could potentially be a source of introduction of rabies into Japan. The method of scenario tree modelling was used and the following entry and exposure pathway was considered the most likely route of rabies entry: a rabies-infected dog arriving on a Russian fishing boat lands in a port of Hokkaido in Japan, it becomes infectious, contacts and infects a susceptible domestic animal (companion dog, stray dog or wildlife). Input parameter values were based on surveys of Russian fishermen, expert opinion and scientific data from the literature. At present (2006-2015), the probability of the introduction of rabies as a result of one Russian fishing boat arriving at a port of Hokkaido is 8.33×10(-10) (90% Prediction Interval (PI): 7.15×10(-11)-5.34×10(-9)), while this probability would have been 7.70×10(-9) (90% PI: 6.40×10(-10)-4.81×10(-8)) in the past (1998-2005). Under the current situation (average annual number of boat arrivals is 1106), rabies would enter Japan every 1,084,849 (90% PI: 169,215-20,188,348) years, while the disease would have been introduced every 18,309 (90% PI: 2929-220,048) years in the past (average annual number of boat arrivals is 7092). The risk of rabies introduction has decreased 59 fold due to both the effective control of the issue of illegal landing of dogs and the decline in the number of Russian boat arrivals. Control efforts include education of Russian fishermen, establishment of warning signs, daily patrols and regular port surveillance of potential dog landing activity. Furthermore, scenario analysis revealed that the policy of mandatory domestic dog vaccination does not contribute effectively to Japan's rabies

  7. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  8. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  9. Bovine tuberculosis infection in wild mammals in the South-West region of England: a survey of prevalence and a semi-quantitative assessment of the relative risks to cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delahay, R J; Smith, G C; Barlow, A M; Walker, N; Harris, A; Clifton-Hadley, R S; Cheeseman, C L

    2007-03-01

    In the United Kingdom, badgers are implicated in the transmission of Mycobacterium bovis to cattle, but little information is available on the potential role of other wild mammals. This paper presents the results of the largest systematic UK survey of M. bovis infection in other wild mammals. Mammal carcasses (4715) from throughout the South-West region of England were subjected to a systematic post mortem examination, microbiological culture of tissues and spoligotyping of isolates. Infection was confirmed in fox, stoat, polecat, common shrew, yellow-necked mouse, wood mouse, field vole, grey squirrel, roe deer, red deer, fallow deer and muntjac. Prevalence in deer may have been underestimated because the majority were incomplete carcasses, which reduced the likelihood of detecting infection. Infected cases were found in Wiltshire, Somerset, Devon and Cornwall, Gloucestershire and Herefordshire. Lesions were found in a high proportion of spoligotype-positive fallow, red and roe deer, and a single fox, stoat and muntjac. M. bovis spoligotypes occurred in a similar frequency of occurrence to that in cattle and badgers. Data on prevalence, pathology, abundance and ecology of wild mammals was integrated in a semi-quantitative risk assessment of the likelihood of transmission to cattle relative to badgers. Although most species presented a relatively low risk, higher values and uncertainty associated with muntjac, roe, red and in particular fallow deer, suggest they require further investigation. The results suggest that deer should be considered as potential, although probably localised, sources of infection for cattle.

  10. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    decisionmakers better decide on which risk assessment/analysis framework may be best suited for the specific risk decision at hand. Among other results, we find that while many of the assessed frameworks have their advantages along with limitations, most may require potentially lengthy decision-making processes...... of uncertainty, degree of precaution, inclusion of quantitative or qualitative data, inclusion of life-cycle perspective, iterative and/or adaptive, ensuring timely decision making, and degree of transparency. This analysis can ultimately assist scientists, government agencies, organizations, and other......Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...

  11. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  12. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    The topics of regulation and risk assessment of nanomaterials have never been more relevant and controversial in Europe than they are at this point in time. In this entry, we present and discuss a number of major pieces of legislation relevant for the regulation of nanomaterials, including REACH...... Regulation. Chemical risk assessment provides a fundamental element in support of existing legislation. Risk assessment is normally said to consist of four elements, i.e., hazard identification, dose–response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Each of these four elements hold......, the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  13. Rapid quantification of viable Campylobacter on chicken carcasses by real-time PCR and propidium monoazide as a tool for quantitative risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Mathilde Hartmann; Löfström, Charlotta; Hansen, Tina Beck

    2010-01-01

    of foodborne Campylobacter, combining real-time PCR (Q-PCR) with a simple propidium monoazide (PMA) sample treatment. In less than 3 hours, this method generates a signal from only viable and viable but non-culturable (VBNC) Campylobacter with an intact membrane. The method performance was evaluated...... by assessing the contribution to variability from individual chicken carcass rinse matrices, species of Campylobacter, and the efficiency of DNA extraction with differing cell inputs. The method was compared with culture-based enumeration on 50 naturally infected chickens. The cell contents correlated with Ct......-values (R2 = 0.993), with a quantification range from 1×1021×107 CFU/ml. The correlation between the Campylobacter counts obtained by PMA-PCR and culture on naturally contaminated chickens was high (R2 = 0.844). The amplification efficiency of the Q-PCR method was not affected by chicken rinse matrix...

  14. Rapid Quantification of Viable Campylobacter Bacteria on Chicken Carcasses, Using Real-Time PCR and Propidium Monoazide Treatment, as a Tool for Quantitative Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Mathilde Hartmann; Löfström, Charlotta; Hansen, Tina Beck

    2010-01-01

    of foodborne Campylobacter, combining real-time PCR (Q-PCR) with a simple propidium monoazide (PMA) sample treatment. In less than 3 hours, this method generates a signal from only viable and viable but non-culturable (VBNC) Campylobacter with an intact membrane. The method performance was evaluated...... by assessing the contribution to variability from individual chicken carcass rinse matrices, species of Campylobacter, and the efficiency of DNA extraction with differing cell inputs. The method was compared with culture-based enumeration on 50 naturally infected chickens. The cell contents correlated with Ct......-values (R(2) = 0.993), with a quantification range from 1x10(2)-1x10(7) CFU/ml. The correlation between the Campylobacter counts obtained by PMA-PCR and culture on naturally contaminated chickens was high (R(2) = 0.844). The amplification efficiency of the Q-PCR method was not affected by chicken rinse...

  15. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H. (eds.)

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.).

  16. FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

  17. 即食食品中单增李斯特菌的半定量风险评估%Semi-quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in RTE food

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    董庆利; 郑丽敏; 党维鑫; 顾晓颋

    2012-01-01

    开展某市即食食品中单增李斯特菌的半定量风险评估,参照微生物风险评估程序,对单增李斯特菌开展了危害识别、危害特征描述、暴露评估和风险特征描述。通过剂量反应关系推测易感人群和非易感人群由于摄入即食食品导致单增李斯特菌病的每年发病概率分别为3.71×10-7和3.39×10-9。基于2008-2011年监测各类生食蔬菜、生食水产品、菜肴(沙拉)等即食食品942组数据,构建了即食食品中单增李斯特菌的风险矩阵,由风险可能性和风险损失度计算得到易感人群通过摄入即食食品感染单增李斯特菌的风险等级属于五级风险等级中较小的一级,表明当地居民通过摄入即食食品感染单增李斯特菌病的风险较小。本文可为构建完整单增李斯特菌风险评估体系提供理论参考。%An semi-quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes was conducted for Ready-To-Eat (RTE) food in one city of China. Four steps,hazard identification,hazard characterization,exposure assessment and risk characterization,were applied for L. monocytogenes in RTE food. The result of dose-response relationship indicated that the probability of becoming ill each year from ingesting L. monocytogenes in RTE food was 3.71 ×10-7 and 3.39×10-9, respectively for susceptible populations and normal populations. Moreover, the 2-dimensional risk matrix based on risk probability and risk loss was established for L. monocytogenes in RTE food,according to 942 data of RTE food which included fresh fruits and vegetables,aquatic products, salad,et al. It showed that risk level of L. monocytogenes in RTE food reached the lowest one of five levels. Local people might get listeriosis with lower risk from eating RTE food. The results could be referenced for complete estabishment of L. monocytogenes risk assessment.

  18. [Risk assessment of chemical agents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottica, Danilo; Grignani, Elena; Bartolucci, Giovanni Battista

    2011-01-01

    The risk assessment of chemical agents is a well known and applied process carried out by Industrial Hygienists and Occupational Physicians based on exposure evaluation. The application of REACH (CE 1907/2006), CLP (CE 1272/2008) and SDS (UE 453/2010) introduces some changes and instruments to carry out the occupational exposure assessment, like new classification of substances, Exposure Scenario, suggested control measures that the Industrial Hygienist and the Occupational Physician must evaluate. If there is not a similar Exposure Scenario to apply a new risk assessment must carried out also by recommended software (ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment; Easy to use workplace EMKG; Stoffenmanager). Looking at the relevance of the control measures and evaluation of Exposure Scenario we report the flowchart of risk assessment and management by the Method of Organisational Congruencies carried out with the Prevention and Protection Service and Occupational Physician Office of the Health Service of the Azienda Provinciale of Trento.

  19. Quality-by-Design II: Application of Quantitative Risk Analysis to the Formulation of Ciprofloxacin Tablets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claycamp, H Gregg; Kona, Ravikanth; Fahmy, Raafat; Hoag, Stephen W

    2016-04-01

    Qualitative risk assessment methods are often used as the first step to determining design space boundaries; however, quantitative assessments of risk with respect to the design space, i.e., calculating the probability of failure for a given severity, are needed to fully characterize design space boundaries. Quantitative risk assessment methods in design and operational spaces are a significant aid to evaluating proposed design space boundaries. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a relatively simple strategy for design space definition using a simplified Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. This paper builds on a previous paper that used failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) qualitative risk assessment and Plackett-Burman design of experiments to identity the critical quality attributes. The results show that the sequential use of qualitative and quantitative risk assessments can focus the design of experiments on a reduced set of critical material and process parameters that determine a robust design space under conditions of limited laboratory experimentation. This approach provides a strategy by which the degree of risk associated with each known parameter can be calculated and allocates resources in a manner that manages risk to an acceptable level.

  20. Treatment assessment of radiotherapy using MR functional quantitative imaging

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zheng; Chang; Chunhao; Wang

    2015-01-01

    Recent developments in magnetic resonance(MR) functional quantitative imaging have made it a potentially powerful tool to assess treatment response in radiation therapy. With its abilities to capture functional information on underlying tissue characteristics, MR functional quantitative imaging can be valuable in assessing treatment response and as such to optimize therapeutic outcome. Various MR quantitative imaging techniques, including diffusion weighted imaging, diffusion tensor imaging, MR spectroscopy and dynamic contrastenhanced imaging, have been investigated and found useful for assessment of radiotherapy. However, various aspects including data reproducibility, interpretation of biomarkers, image quality and data analysis impose challenges on applications of MR functional quantitative imaging in radiotherapy assessment. All of these challenging issues shall be addressed to help us understand whether MR functional quantitative imaging is truly beneficial and contributes to future development of radiotherapy. It is evident that individualized therapy is the future direction of patient care. MR functional quantitative imaging might serves as an indispensable tool towards this promising direction.

  1. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... and toxicity. Whereas Risk Assessment (RA) aims to identify absolute risks, LCA assess potential or relative impacts. LCA is readily applicable to nanotechnologies and several studies have been carried out, but LCA faces large problems when addressing toxic impacts of nanomaterials emitted during the life...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  2. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  3. Quantitative wearable sensors for objective assessment of Parkinson's disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maetzler, W.; Domingos, J.; Srulijes, K.; Ferreira, J.J.; Bloem, B.R.

    2013-01-01

    There is a rapidly growing interest in the quantitative assessment of Parkinson's disease (PD)-associated signs and disability using wearable technology. Both persons with PD and their clinicians see advantages in such developments. Specifically, quantitative assessments using wearable technology ma

  4. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...... and to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be substantial enough...... be a poor substitute for a proper risk assessment as low potency substances can constitute a risk if the exposure is high enough and vice versa. Examples illustrating the strength and limitations of hazard classification, risk assessment and toxicological potency will be presented with focus on reproductive...

  5. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsui, Toshiyuki; Kasuga, Fumiko

    Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a progressive neurological disease of cattle affecting the central nervous system and was first diagnosed in the United Kingdom (UK) in 1986 (Wells et al., 1987). This disease is one of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) which includes Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans and scrapie in sheep. The causative agent of TSE is considered to be an abnormal form of prion protein. However, the details of its pathogenic mechanism have not been fully identified. Scrapie, which causes neurological symptoms in sheep and goats, has existed in the UK for 200 years (Hoinville, 1996) and spread across the rest of the world in the 1900s (Detwiler & Baylis, 2003). There has been no report so far that scrapie can be transmitted to humans. Initially, BSE was also considered as a disease affecting only animals. However, a variant type of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) was first reported in the UK, and exposure to a BSE agent was suspected (Collinge, Sidle, Meads, Ironside, & Hill, 1996). vCJD is clinically and pathologically different from the sporadic type of CJD, and age at clinical onset of vCJD is younger than sporadic type (Will et al., 1996). Since the UK government announced the possible association between BSE and vCJD in 1996, BSE has become a huge public health concern all over the world. Of particular concern about vCJD, the fatal disease in younger age, distorted consumer confidence in beef safety, and as a result reduced beef consumption has been seen in many BSE-affected countries.

  6. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  7. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  8. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor.

  9. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  10. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  11. SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF LEVEES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Rosidi

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A seismic risk assessment procedure for earth embankments and levees is presented. The procedure consists of three major elements: (1 probability of ground motion at the site, (2 probability of levee failure given a level of ground motion has occurred and (3 expected loss resulting from the failure. This paper discusses the first two elements of the risk assessment. The third element, which includes economic losses and human casualty, will not be presented herein. The ground motions for risk assessment are developed using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. A two-dimensional finite element analysis is performed to estimate the dynamic responses of levee, and the probability of levee failure is calculated using the levee fragility curve. The overall objective of the assessment is to develop an analytical tool for assessing the failure risk and the effectiveness of various levee strengthening alternatives for risk reduction. An example of the procedure, as it applies to a levee built along the perimeter of an island for flood protection and water storage, is presented. Variations in earthquake ground motion and soil and water conditions at the site are incorporated in the risk assessment. The effects of liquefaction in the foundation soils are also considered.

  12. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models....... enables the relative importance of the different factors (i.e. degree of climate change, assets value, discount rate etc.) to be determined, thus influencing the overall output of the assessment.......Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...

  13. Benefit-Risk Assessment in Drug Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarac, Sinan

    This thesis covers the development, testing and use of an eight-step structured method for data-driven benefit-risk assessment. The aim of this thesis was to create a tailored method for the assessment of clinical data. The focus has been on three major aspects: (i) A simple preliminary method....... In total, four pilot studies and internal workshops were conducted. The method was therefore developed in an iterative fashion. The method involves eight successive steps: 1) establishment of the decision context, 2) identification of benefit and risk criteria, 3) weighting, 4) scoring, 5) evaluation...... and supported by a qualitative framework with built-in quantitative measures. However, at the same time the method is transparent in the sense that all assumptions made in the various steps of the assessment are clearly expressed all the way to the final decision. This is important both to avoid that unreported...

  14. Assessing Quantitative Reasoning in Young Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Terezinha; Bryant, Peter; Evans, Deborah; Barros, Rossana

    2015-01-01

    Before starting school, many children reason logically about concepts that are basic to their later mathematical learning. We describe a measure of quantitative reasoning that was administered to children at school entry (mean age 5.8 years) and accounted for more variance in a mathematical attainment test than general cognitive ability 16 months…

  15. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    qualitative or semi-quantitative rather than fully quantitative risk assessment, but an added benefit is that the disciplined structuring of available knowledge enables clear identification of gaps to target resources and if appropriate, instigate data generation.

  16. Country Risk Analysis: A Survey of the Quantitative Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Hiranya K Nath

    2008-01-01

    With globalization and financial integration, there has been rapid growth of international lending and foreign direct investment (FDI). In view of this emerging trend, country risk analysis has become extremely important for the international creditors and investors. This paper briefly discusses the concepts and definitions, and presents a survey of the quantitative methods that are used to address various issues related to country risk. It also gives a summary review of selected empirical st...

  17. Qualitative and quantitative ultrasound assessment of gastric content

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flora Margarida Barra Bisinotto

    Full Text Available Summary Objective: Pulmonary aspiration of the gastric contents is one of the most feared complications in anesthesia. Its prevention depends on preoperative fasting as well as identification of risky patients. A reliable diagnostic tool to assess gastric volume is currently lacking. The aim of this study performed on volunteers was to evaluate the feasibility of ultrasonography to identify qualitative and quantitative gastric content. Method: A standardized gastric scanning protocol was applied on 67 healthy volunteers to assess the gastric antrum in four different situations: fasting, after ingesting clear fluid, milk and a solid meal. A qualitative and quantitative assessment of the gastric content in the antrum was performed by a blinded sonographer. The antrum was considered either as empty, or containing clear or thick fluid, or solids. Total gastric volume was predicted based on a cross-sectional area of the antrum. A p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: For each type of gastric content, the sonographic characteristics of the antrum and its content were described and illustrated. Sonographic qualitative assessment allowed to distinguish between an empty stomach and one with different kinds of meal. The predicted gastric volume was significantly larger after the consumption of any food source compared to fasting. Conclusion: Bedside sonography can determine the nature of gastric content. It is also possible to estimate the difference between an empty gastric antrum and one that has some food in it. Such information may be useful to estimate the risk of aspiration, particularly in situations when prandial status is unknown or uncertain.

  18. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  19. Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

    2003-10-01

    Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

  20. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  1. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  2. Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM: Groundwater Risk Assessment Model for Wellfield Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nara Somaratne

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A groundwater risk assessment was carried out for 30 potable water supply systems under a framework of protecting drinking water quality across South Australia. A semi-quantitative Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM was developed based on a “multi-barrier” approach using likelihood of release, contaminant pathway and consequence equation. Groundwater vulnerability and well integrity have been incorporated to the pathway component of the risk equation. The land use of the study basins varies from protected water reserves to heavily stocked grazing lands. Based on the risk assessment, 15 systems were considered as low risk, four as medium and 11 systems as at high risk. The GRAM risk levels were comparable with indicator bacteria—total coliform—detection. Most high risk systems were the result of poor well construction and casing corrosion rather than the land use. We carried out risk management actions, including changes to well designs and well operational practices, design to increase time of residence and setting the production zone below identified low permeable zones to provide additional barriers to contaminants. The highlight of the risk management element is the well integrity testing using down hole geophysical methods and camera views of the casing condition.

  3. A Team Mental Model Perspective of Pre-Quantitative Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Lynne P.

    2011-01-01

    This study was conducted to better understand how teams conceptualize risk before it can be quantified, and the processes by which a team forms a shared mental model of this pre-quantitative risk. Using an extreme case, this study analyzes seven months of team meeting transcripts, covering the entire lifetime of the team. Through an analysis of team discussions, a rich and varied structural model of risk emerges that goes significantly beyond classical representations of risk as the product of a negative consequence and a probability. In addition to those two fundamental components, the team conceptualization includes the ability to influence outcomes and probabilities, networks of goals, interaction effects, and qualitative judgments about the acceptability of risk, all affected by associated uncertainties. In moving from individual to team mental models, team members employ a number of strategies to gain group recognition of risks and to resolve or accept differences.

  4. Quantitative Method of Representative Contaminants in Groundwater Pollution Risk Assessment%地下水污染风险评价中特征污染物量化方法探讨

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王俊杰; 何江涛; 陆燕; 刘丽雅; 张小亮

    2012-01-01

    In the light of the problem that stress vulnerability assessment in groundwater pollution risk assessment is lack of an effective quantitative system,a new system was proposed based on representative contaminants and corresponding emission quantities through the analysis of groundwater pollution sources.And quantitative method of the representative contaminants in this system was established by analyzing the three properties of representative contaminants and determining the research emphasis using analytic hierarchy process.The method had been applied to the assessment of Beijing groundwater pollution risk.The results demonstrated that the representative contaminants hazards greatly depended on different research emphasizes.There were also differences between the sequence of three representative contaminants hazards and their corresponding properties.It suggested that subjective tendency of the research emphasis had a decisive impact on calculation results.In addition,by the means of sequence to normalize the three properties and to unify the quantified properties results would zoom in or out of the relative properties characteristic of different representative contaminants.%针对地下水污染风险评价中的外界胁迫脆弱性评价缺乏有效量化体系这一问题,通过地下水污染源解析,提出了基于特征污染物及其对应排放量的量化体系;通过特征污染物属性解析及利用层次分析法确定研究侧重点,构建了该体系中的特征污染物量化方法.将该量化方法应用于北京市地下水污染风险评价,结果表明,依据不同研究侧重点得出的3种特征污染物危害性计算结果具有明显差异,并且3种危害性排序与对应的3种属性排序亦存在差异.由此表明,确定研究侧重点的主观倾向对特征污染物危害性计算结果有决定性影响.此外,在计算过程中,以序列值的方式解决3种属性的归一化及不同类别特征污染物属性量化结果

  5. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  6. Quantitative risk assessment of the contamination of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in aquatic products%市售水产品中副溶血性弧菌污染的定量风险评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王李伟; 张昭寰; 赵勇; 彭少杰

    2016-01-01

    Objective To estimate the health risk due to the consumption of aquatic products contaminated by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai , and provide the basis for control of foodborne diseases associated with this pathogen . Methods According to the guidelines provided by Codex Alimentarius Commission ( CAC) , we performed a quantitative microbial risk assessment model with four steps :hazard identification , hazard characterization , exposure assessment and risk characterization .The surveillance data of Vibrio parahaemolyticus concentration in aquatic products from Shanghai during 2011 and 2013 and Shanghai residents ’ aquatic products consumption data were added in the model .And the parameters were set in this model based on the FAO/WHO scientific literature .A Monte Carlo simulation method was employed to analyze the increase of Vibrio parahaemolyticus concentration in aquatic products from market to table, and quantify the exposure and health risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus by consuming aquatic products in Shanghai . Results The mean value of probability of infectious illness caused by aquatic products contaminated by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai was 1.2 ×10 -6 .That indicated the number of infectious illnesses associated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai might reach 10 746 cases every year based on the population data from Shanghai Statistical Yearbook in 2014 . Conclusion There is the certain health risk of suffering from the disease due to the consumption of aquatic products contaminated by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai .Decreasing the occurrence of eating raw aquatic products and controlling the temperature and time of aquatic products processing and storage were determined as the critical factors for suppressing foodborne diseases caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus.%目的:评估上海市居民通过水产品暴露副溶血性弧菌的健康风险,为防控副溶血性弧菌引起的食物中毒提供参考。方法以2011—2013

  7. Simulation modeling for microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassin, M H; Paoli, G M; Lammerding, A M

    1998-11-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment implies an estimation of the probability and impact of adverse health outcomes due to microbial hazards. In the case of food safety, the probability of human illness is a complex function of the variability of many parameters that influence the microbial environment, from the production to the consumption of a food. The analytical integration required to estimate the probability of foodborne illness is intractable in all but the simplest of models. Monte Carlo simulation is an alternative to computing analytical solutions. In some cases, a risk assessment may be commissioned to serve a larger purpose than simply the estimation of risk. A Monte Carlo simulation can provide insights into complex processes that are invaluable, and otherwise unavailable, to those charged with the task of risk management. Using examples from a farm-to-fork model of the fate of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers, this paper describes specifically how such goals as research prioritization, risk-based characterization of control points, and risk-based comparison of intervention strategies can be objectively achieved using Monte Carlo simulation.

  8. 我国食品微生物定量风险评估的研究进展%Review of Progress in Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    董庆利; 王海梅; Pradeep K MALAKAR; 刘箐; 宋筱瑜; 田明胜; 陆冉冉

    2015-01-01

    近10余年来,我国政府重视食品安全并逐渐加强风险分析体系的构建和实施.根据历年来国家卫生与计生委的统计数据,表明由致病微生物导致的食物中毒发病率一直高于其他危害.食源性致病菌引起的食品安全风险是全球性问题,发展中国家面临的情况更为严峻,因此加强我国微生物定量风险评估以减少与发达国家的差距,从国家层面上势在必行.特别是2009年我国颁布实施《食品安全法》和2011年成立国家食品安全风险评估中心(China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment,CFSA)以来,已有不少针对国内具体食品致病菌情况开展的食品微生物定量风险评估(quantitative microbial risk assessment,QMRA)研究.本文对2000年至今我国已开展的QMRA研究,包括涉及的食品、致病菌、微生物预测模型、剂量-效应模型等进行详细综述.同时指出我国开展QMRA面临的技术性难题及解决方法,并对采用QMRA结果用于构建危害分析与关键控制点(Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point,HACCP)和食品安全目标(food safety objective,FSO)以及执行目标(performance objective,PO)的应用前景进行探讨.建议加强风险评估与风险管理的互动交流、进一步完善风险监测、微生物限量制定和国际合作,在完善实施指南的基础上针对我国具体国情开展更多具有科学性和系统性的QMRA研究.

  9. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  10. 散装熟肉制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的定量风险评估%Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    田静; 樊永祥; 刘秀梅

    2011-01-01

    目的 对我国散装熟肉制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌(简称单增李斯特菌)的风险进行定量评估.方法 单增李斯特菌污染熟肉制品资料来源于2009年全国食源性疾病监测网,共涉及841份样品,对所有的841份样品进行了定性检验,另对其中的97份样品进行了定量检测;熟肉制品摄入量资料来源于2002年中国居民营养与健康调查的结果;收集国家统计局2008年监测点地区人口资料,估算不同年龄人口构成,作为评估不同人群疾病概率的基数.采用@Risk软件,按照危害识别、危害特征描述、暴露评估、风险特征描述等4个步骤定量评估0-4、5~64及65岁以上人群消费散装熟肉制品患李斯特菌病的风险,同时进行敏感性分析.结果 96.08%(808/841)的样品中单增李斯特菌的量<3 MPN/g(0.5 1g MPN/g),散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌浓度平均为-0.61 1g CFU/g,其90%可信区间为-1.22~0.46 1g CFU/g;推算我国0~4、5~64和65岁以上人群消费熟肉制品的份数分别为5.52×109、8.99×1010、1.01×1010;0~4、5~64及65岁以上人群消费散装熟肉制品每年引起每百万人患病的病例数的中位数分别为5.53×10-3、1.72×10-4、7.57×10-3.敏感性分析结果显示,零售时散装熟肉制品的污染情况、消费量、家庭贮存温度、家庭贮存时间及5℃的指数生长率与患病风险的关系均是正相关(r值分别为0.607、0.408、0.339、0.259、0.183,P值均<0.05).结论 我国散装熟肉制品具有引起单增李斯特菌病的风险;零售时散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌的污染情况对风险的影响最大.%Objective To conduct a quantitative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products in China.Methods The data on the contamination level of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked meat products was from national foodborne disease surveillance network.involving a total of 841samples.All the samples were

  11. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc.......A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...

  12. Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    AMSAA Kadry Rizk, TARDEC Lisa Graf, TARDEC Klaus Sanford, TRAC Elyse Krezmien, TRAC Jerry Scriven, ALU Igor Linkov, ERDC Alison Tichenor...Engineering ATEC - Army Test and Evaluation Command BCA - Business Case Analysis C - Consequence Level C- BA - Cost Benefit Analysis CDD...the AMSAA Risk Team has completed 12 technical and schedule risk assessments to support AoAs and Cost-Benefit Analyses (C- BAs ). AMSAA also developed

  13. ANTHROPIC RISK ASSESSMENT ON BIODIVERSITY

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niche...

  14. Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

    Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

  15. Tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Strunz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia.

    The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009. The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources.

  16. A comparison of risk assessments on Campylobacter in broiler meat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nauta, M.; Hill, A.; Rosenquist, H.; Brynestad, S.; Fetsch, A.; Logt, van der P.; Fazil, A.; Christensen, B.; Katsma, W.E.A.; Borck, B.; Havelaar, A.

    2009-01-01

    In recent years. several quantitative risk assessments for Campylobacter in broiler meat have been developed to support risk managers in controlling this pathogen. The models encompass some or all of the consecutive stages in the broiler meat production chain: primary production, industrial

  17. A comparison of risk assessments on Campylobacter in broiler meat.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nauta, M.; Hill, A.; Rosenquist, H.; Brynestad, S.; Fetsch, A.; van der Logt, P.; Fazil, A.; Christensen, B.; Katsma, E.; Borck, B.; Havelaar, A.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/072306122

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, several quantitative risk assessments for Campylobacter in broiler meat have been developed to support risk managers in controlling this pathogen. The models encompass some or all of the consecutive stages in the broiler meat production chain: primary production, industrial

  18. Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

    2005-08-31

    Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

  19. 中国居民膳食油脂多环芳烃暴露的定量风险评估%Quantitative risk assessment of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons dietary exposure from edible fats and oils in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曹梦思; 王君; 张立实; 严卫星

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the quantitative risk of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) dietary exposure from edible fats and oils in China. Methods One hundred samples of edible fats and oils were collected from the supermarkets and the farmers markets in 11 provinces of China from December in 2013 to May in 2014. Then they were tested for EU15+1 PAHs (16 PAHs were controlled in priority by European Food Safety Authority) by two test methods which were QuECHERS-GC-MS-MS and GPC-HPLC-FLD. Data of PAHs concentration and edible fats and oils consumption which were from Chinese National Nutrition and Health Survey in 2002 were combined to evaluate carcinogenic risk of PAHs in edible fats and oils by the method of margin of exposure (MOE). In this process, we divided the population into 6 groups, namely male adults (older than 18 years old), female adults (older than 18), male youths (13-17), female youths (13-17), school-agers (6-12) and preschoolers (2-5), and thought carcinogenicity as the critical toxicity end point of PAHs. Two quantitative risk assessment methods, i.e. point assessment and probability assessment, were used to evaluate the dietary exposure and MOEs. Results EU15+1 PAHs in one of 100 samples were not detected, other samples were polluted in different degrees;the detection rates were 3%-98%and the average contents were 0.26-3.26μg/kg. The results of PAHs dietary exposure from both of point assessment and probability assessment were the same. The average exposures of PAH8 were as the following:male adults were 10.03 and (9.34±12.61) ng·kg-1·d-1(The former was from point assessment and the latter from probability assessment, the same below), female adults were 9.95 and (9.60 ± 15.04) ng · kg-1·d-1, male youths were 11.09 and (10.84 ± 16.54) ng·kg-1·d-1, female youths were 10.06 and (9.58 ± 12.87) ng·kg-1·d-1,school-agers were 15.29 and (15.62±25.54) ng·kg-1·d-1, preschoolers were 19.27 and (19.22± 28.91) ng·kg-1·d-1. MOEs of mean

  20. Quantitative Methods for Assessment of Railway Timetables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schittenhelm, Bernd Hermann

    The aim of this PhD thesis is to improve the attractiveness of future railway timetables. To achieve this goal,the qualitative term “timetable attractiveness” needs to be made quantifiable. To establish what timetableattractiveness is, the thesis gives an introduction to railway timetables...... sections)VIII Summary- Compressed timetables based on the blocking time theory3. Degree of deviation from timetable planning rules (Robustness of the timetable)- Focus on agreed upon running times and timetable supplements4. Conflict Risk Index (Robustness of the timetable)- The number of potential train...... path conflicts at a station and their estimated risk level5. Timetable train path fix points (Robustness of the timetable)- Geographical and temporal distribution of potential train path conflicts6. Proportion of train paths with shared rolling stock (Robustness of the timetable)- Number of train paths...

  1. Quantitative-PCR Assessment of Cryptosporidium parvum Cell Culture Infection

    OpenAIRE

    Di Giovanni, George D.; LeChevallier, Mark W.

    2005-01-01

    A quantitative TaqMan PCR method was developed for assessing the Cryptosporidium parvum infection of in vitro cultivated human ileocecal adenocarcinoma (HCT-8) cell cultures. This method, termed cell culture quantitative sequence detection (CC-QSD), has numerous applications, several of which are presented. CC-QSD was used to investigate parasite infection in cell culture over time, the effects of oocyst treatment on infectivity and infectivity assessment of different C. parvum isolates. CC-Q...

  2. [Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dejun; Fu, Xiaokuan; Kong, Fanling; Sui, Shaofeng; Jiang, Yuanyuan; Du, Yinglin; Zhou, Jingyang

    2014-06-01

    Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants were performed on an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons, based on improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, with consideration of actual situation in China and in the present project. With the use of engineering analysis and identification of occupational hazards in the improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, hazard rating (HR) and risk assessment were performed on chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons. The chemical toxicants in the isophorone nitrile device were mainly isophorone, hydrocyanic acid, methanol, phosphoric acid, sodium hydroxide, and sodium cyanide; the HR values were mild hazard (2), extreme hazard (5), mild hazard (2), mild hazard (2), moderate hazard (3), and extreme hazard (5), respectively, and the corresponding exposure rating (ER) values were 2.09, 2.72, 2.76, 1.68, 2.0, and 1.59, respectively. The risk of chemical toxicants in this project was assessed according to the formula Risk = [HR×ER](1/2). Hydrocyanic acid was determined as high risk, sodium hydroxide and sodium cyanide as medium risk, and isophorone, methanol, and phosphoric acid as low risk. Priority in handling of risks was determined by risk rating. The table of risk control measure was established for pre-assessment of occupational hazards. With risk assessment in this study, we concluded that the isophorone nitrile device with 5,000 ton annual production was a high-occupational hazard device. This device is a project of extreme occupational hazard. The improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method is a scientific and applicable method, and is especially suitable for pre-evaluation of on-site project with no analogy.

  3. Quantitative finance and risk management a physicist's approach

    CERN Document Server

    Dash, Jan W

    2004-01-01

    Written by a physicist with over 15 years of experience as a quant on Wall Street, this book treats a wide variety of topics. Presenting the theory and practice of quantitative finance and risk, it delves into the "how to" and "what it's like" aspects not covered in textbooks or research papers. Both standard and new results are presented. A "Technical Index" indicates the mathematical level; from zero to PhD mathematical background; for each section. The finance aspect in each section is self-contained. Real-life comments on "life as a quant" are included. This book is designed for scientists and engineers desiring to learn quantitative finance, and for quantitative analysts and finance graduate students. Parts will be of interest to research academics.

  4. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  5. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  6. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  7. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  8. Quantitative ultrasond in the assessment of osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmi, Giuseppe; de Terlizzi, Francesca

    2009-09-01

    Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) is used in the clinical setting to identify changes in bone tissue connected with menopause, osteoporosis and bone fragility. The versatility of the technique, its low cost and lack of ionizing radiation have led to the use of this method worldwide. Furthermore, with increased clinical interest among clinicians, QUS has been applied to several field of investigation of bone, in various pathologies of bone metabolism, in paediatrics, neonatology, genetics and other fields. Several studies have been carried out in recent years to investigate the potential of QUS, with important positive results. The technique is able to predict osteoporotic fractures; some evidence of the ability to monitor therapies has been reported; the usefulness in the management of secondary osteoporosis has been confirmed; studies in paediatrics have reported reference curves for some QUS devices, and there have been relevant studies in conditions involving metabolic bone disorders. This article is an overview of the most relevant developments in the field of QUS, both in the clinical and in the experimental settings. The advantages and limitations of the present technique have been outlined, together with suggestions for the use in the clinical practice.

  9. Quantitative Ultrasond in the assessment of Osteoporosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guglielmi, Giuseppe [Department of Radiology, University of Foggia, Viale L. Pinto, 71100 Foggia (Italy); Department of Radiology, Scientific Institute Hospital, San Giovanni Rotondo (Italy)], E-mail: g.guglielmi@unifg.it; Terlizzi, Francesca de [IGEA srl, Via Parmenide 10/A 41012 Carpi, MO (Italy)], E-mail: f.deterlizzi@igeamedical.com

    2009-09-15

    Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) is used in the clinical setting to identify changes in bone tissue connected with menopause, osteoporosis and bone fragility. The versatility of the technique, its low cost and lack of ionizing radiation have led to the use of this method worldwide. Furthermore, with increased clinical interest among clinicians, QUS has been applied to several field of investigation of bone, in various pathologies of bone metabolism, in paediatrics, neonatology, genetics and other fields. Several studies have been carried out in recent years to investigate the potential of QUS, with important positive results. The technique is able to predict osteoporotic fractures; some evidence of the ability to monitor therapies has been reported; the usefulness in the management of secondary osteoporosis has been confirmed; studies in paediatrics have reported reference curves for some QUS devices, and there have been relevant studies in conditions involving metabolic bone disorders. This article is an overview of the most relevant developments in the field of QUS, both in the clinical and in the experimental settings. The advantages and limitations of the present technique have been outlined, together with suggestions for the use in the clinical practice.

  10. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    (recommendation levels A-D). RESULTS: Three SR, three guidelines, and five papers, not considered in previous SR, were identified and formed the base for the present summary and recommendations. One of the systematic reviews and three of the primary publications were of moderate risk of bias, while the rest......PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... with the AMSTAR tool and the primary publications according to the Cochrane handbook. The quality was rated as low, moderate, or high risk of bias. The findings were descriptively synthesised and the quality of evidence was graded according to GRADE. For the recommendations of practice, the SIGN scores were used...

  11. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  12. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  13. A Quantitative Assessment Approach to COTS Component Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinfu Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The vulnerability of software components hinders the development of component technology. An effective assessment approach to component security level can promote the development of component technology. Thus, the current paper proposes a quantitative assessment approach to COTS (commercial-off-the-shelf component security. The steps of interface fault injection and the assessment framework are given based on the internal factors of the tested component. The quantitative assessment algorithm and formula of component security level are also presented. The experiment results show that the approach not only can detect component security vulnerabilities effectively but also quantitatively assess the component security level. The score of component security can be accurately calculated, which represents the security level of the tested component.

  14. Uncertainties in risk assessment of CO2 pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koornneef, J.M.; Spruijt, M.; Molag, M.; Ramirez, C.A.; Faaij, A.P.C.; Turkenburg, W.C.

    2009-01-01

    The main goal of this study is to identify knowledge gaps and uncertainties in Quantitative Risk Assessments (QRA) for CO2 pipelines and to assess to what extent those gaps and uncertainties affect the final outcome of the QRA. The impact of methodological choices and uncertain values for input para

  15. Quantitative assessment of mineralization in distraction osteogenesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hazra, Sunit; Biswal, Sandeep; Jang, Ki-Mo; Modi, Hitesh N. [Korea University, Guro Hospital, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul (Korea); Song, Hae-Ryong [Rare Diseases Institute, Korea University, Guro Hospital, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul (Korea); Lee, Suk-Ha [Konkuk University Hospital, Department of Orthopedics, Seoul (Korea); Lee, Seok Hyun [Dongguk University International Hospital, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Ilsan (Korea)

    2008-09-15

    The most important decision in distraction osteogenesis is the timing of fixator removal. Various methods have been tried, such as radiographic appearance of callus and bone mineral density (BMD) assessment, but none has acquired gold standard status. The purpose of this study was to develop another objective method of assessment of callus stiffness to help clinicians in taking the most important decision of when to remove the fixator. We made a retrospective study of 70 patients to compare the BMD ratio and pixel value ratio. These ratios were calculated at the time of fixator removal, and Pearson's coefficient of correlation was used to show the comparability. Inter- and intra-observer variability of the new method was also tested. Good correlation was found between BMD ratio and pixel value ratio, with a Pearson's coefficient of correlation of 0.79. The interobserver variability was also low, with high intra-observer reproducibility, suggesting that this test was simple to perform. Pixel value ratio is a good method for assessing callus stiffness, and it can be used to judge the timing of fixator removal. (orig.)

  16. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  17. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  18. Assessing the reporting of categorised quantitative variables in observational epidemiological studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mabikwa, Onkabetse V; Greenwood, Darren C; Baxter, Paul D; Fleming, Sarah J

    2017-03-14

    One aspect to consider when reporting results of observational studies in epidemiology is how quantitative risk factors are analysed. The STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) guidelines recommend that researchers describe how they handle quantitative variables when analysing data. For categorised quantitative variables, the authors are required to provide reasons and justifications informing their practice. We investigated and assessed the practices and reporting of categorised quantitative variables in epidemiology. The assessment was based on five medical journals that publish epidemiological research. Observational studies published between April and June 2015 and investigating the relationships between quantitative exposures (or risk factors) and the outcomes were considered for assessment. A standard form was used to collect the data, and the reporting patterns amongst eligible studies were quantified and described. Out of 61 articles assessed for eligibility, 23 observational studies were included in the assessment. Categorisation of quantitative exposures occurred in 61% of these studies and reasons informing the practice were rarely provided. Only one article explained the choice of categorisation in the analysis. Transformation of quantitative exposures into four or five groups was common and dominant amongst studies using equally spaced categories. Dichotomisation was not popular; the practice featured in one article. Overall, the majority (86%) of the studies preferred ordered or arbitrary group categories. Other criterions used to decide categorical boundaries were based on established guidelines such as consensus statements and WHO standards. Categorisation of continuous variables remains a dominant practice in epidemiological studies. The reasons informing the practice of categorisation within published work are limited and remain unknown in most articles. The existing STROBE guidelines could provide stronger

  19. 基于主成分分析法土地储备风险的定量评估%Quantitative Land Reserve Risk Assessment Based on Principal Component Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱家明; 程倩倩; 朱海龙

    2015-01-01

    Aiming at the risk assessment for land reserve programs, the authors used Excel land reserve programs to screen and process related data, then employed the principal component analysis, fuzzy C-means clustering analysis and normality test methods to establish a land reserve program risk and other related evaluation model.Finally, Matlab programming was used to get total risk primarily through the establishment of risk assessment index to measure land reserve programs, and to establish appropriate risk assessment standard,at last, an effective approach for land reserve risk assessment was attained.%针对土地储备方案的风险评估,使用Excel对所给土地储备方案的相关数据筛选和处理,其次采取主成分分析、模糊C均值聚类分析和正态性检验等方法,建立了土地储备方案风险等相关的评价模型。运用Matlab编程,得到了主要通过建立风险评价指标来衡量土地储备方案的总风险,并确立相应的风险评价标准,得到了对土地储备风险进行有效评估的方法。

  20. Quantitative performance assessments for neuromagnetic imaging systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koga, Ryo; Hiyama, Ei; Matsumoto, Takuya; Sekihara, Kensuke

    2013-01-01

    We have developed a Monte-Carlo simulation method to assess the performance of neuromagnetic imaging systems using two kinds of performance metrics: A-prime metric and spatial resolution. We compute these performance metrics for virtual sensor systems having 80, 160, 320, and 640 sensors, and discuss how the system performance is improved, depending on the number of sensors. We also compute these metrics for existing whole-head MEG systems, MEGvision™ (Yokogawa Electric Corporation, Tokyo, Japan) that uses axial-gradiometer sensors, and TRIUX™ (Elekta Corporate, Stockholm, Sweden) that uses planar-gradiometer and magnetometer sensors. We discuss performance comparisons between these significantly different systems.

  1. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc.......A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...

  2. Quantitative assessment of diffusional kurtosis anisotropy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, G Russell; Helpern, Joseph A; Tabesh, Ali; Jensen, Jens H

    2015-04-01

    Diffusional kurtosis imaging (DKI) measures the diffusion and kurtosis tensors to quantify restricted, non-Gaussian diffusion that occurs in biological tissue. By estimating the kurtosis tensor, DKI accounts for higher order diffusion dynamics, when compared with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), and consequently can describe more complex diffusion profiles. Here, we compare several measures of diffusional anisotropy which incorporate information from the kurtosis tensor, including kurtosis fractional anisotropy (KFA) and generalized fractional anisotropy (GFA), with the diffusion tensor-derived fractional anisotropy (FA). KFA and GFA demonstrate a net enhancement relative to FA when multiple white matter fiber bundle orientations are present in both simulated and human data. In addition, KFA shows net enhancement in deep brain structures, such as the thalamus and the lenticular nucleus, where FA indicates low anisotropy. Thus, KFA and GFA provide additional information relative to FA with regard to diffusional anisotropy, and may be particularly advantageous for the assessment of diffusion in complex tissue environments.

  3. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  4. Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jusun; Lee, Kyunglee; Walsh, Daniel P.; Kim, SangWha; Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Lee, Hang

    2017-01-01

    Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts’ opinions. To examine the experts’ perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and

  5. Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of a rockfall warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bründl, Michael; Sättele, Martina; Krautblatter, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    Rockslides and rockfalls can pose high risk to human settlements and traffic infrastructure. In addition to structural mitigation measures like rockfall nets, warning systems are increasingly installed to reduce rockfall risks. Whereas for structural mitigation measures with reducing effects on the spatial extent a structured evaluation method is existing, no or only few approaches to assess the effectiveness for warning systems are known. Especially for higher magnitude rockfalls structural mitigation measures are not effective, and reliable early warning systems will be essential in future. In response to that, we developed a classification and a framework to assess the reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems (Sättele et al, 2015a; 2016). Here, we demonstrate an application for the rockfall warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012 (Sättele et al., 2015b). We show that it is necessary to design such a warning system as fail-safe construction, which has to incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. With a hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting an event and on initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on related intervention cost. We conclude that it is possible to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of warning systems, which helps to optimize mitigation strategies against rockfall events. References Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Reliability and effectiveness of warning systems for natural hazards: concept and application to debris flow warning, Rel. Eng. Syst. Safety, 142, 192-202, 2015a. Sättele, M., Krautblatter, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Forecasting rock slope failure: How reliable and effective are warning systems?, Landslides, 605, 1-14, 2015b. Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and

  6. Risk assessment of biological hazards in the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugas, Marta; Tsigarida, Eirini; Robinson, Tobin; Calistri, Paolo

    2007-11-30

    International, community and national food safety law and any subsequent decision-making practices aim to be based on risk analysis--a process consisting of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. With the appointment of the European Food Safety Authority as an independent scientific point of reference in risk assessment, there is a clear functional separation between risk assessment and risk management in the European Union food safety context. When a food safety question on microbiological hazards is to be answered--which is under the remit of the EFSA's Scientific Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ)--extensive dialogue and interactions covering the clarity of the question, the acceptability of the deadline and the availability of all necessary information take place with both the risk managers who ask the question and the stakeholders. During the first mandate of the BIOHAZ Panel (2003-2006), the scientific opinions were mainly based on qualitative and in some cases semi-quantitative microbiological risk assessment. In the second mandate of the BIOHAZ Panel, and as a first step towards developing a European approach on Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA), EFSA is preparing to carry out a QMRA on Salmonella in pigs, at European level through a consortium of European institutes.

  7. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  8. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  9. 常见餐饮食品原料中沙门菌的定量风险评估%Quantitative microbiological risk assessment of Salmonella spp. in common catering foods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    樊永祥; 刘秀梅

    2008-01-01

    Objective To study the relationship between foodborne diseases (FBD) and contamination of Salmonella spp. in catering foods, quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) of Salmonella spp. was used to evaluate the food material or the ready to eat food. Methods The contamination data of Salmonella spp. in 10 896 food samples of 9 categories of food which were collected by National Food Contamination and Food Borne Disease Surveillance Net, combining with diet consumption data from National Food Nutrition Survey in 2002, were analyzed by the microbiological risk assessment model developed by WHO/FAO or FDA/FSIS of US to predict probability of FBD. Results The results of MRA showed that the probability of salmonellosis by consuming ready to eat meat in summer and autumn was 0. 20, much higher than the other foods. Although the contamination level in raw poultry was higher than meat, the probability of salmonellosis by raw poultry (9. 11 × 10 -6 ) was lower than meat (3. 14 × 10 -5 )because of the low consumption volume. Conclusion Probability of FBD was significantly correlated with the volume of food consumption, the status of economy and bacteria contamination level. The level of FBD in summer season was higher than in winter and spring because of ambient temperature.%目的 为了控制餐饮食品食源性疾病的发生,对餐饮食品原料中沙门菌进行了定量风险评估.方法 采用国家食源性疾病监测网2004年获得的常见9类共10 896份食品中沙门菌污染数据,参考国际食品法典委员和美国农业部建立的即食肉制品中沙门菌致病的剂量-反应关系模型,根据我国居民营养调查数据获得的被评估食品的每日摄入量,对食品污染沙门菌后,人群发生疾病的致病概率进行了评估和预测.结果 评估结果表明,夏秋季节熟肉制品导致沙门菌中毒的致病概率约为0.20,远远高于生肉制品;尽管禽肉的污染水平高于畜肉,但是由于消费量和

  10. Sensitive Quantitative Assessment of Balance Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paloski, Willilam H.

    2007-01-01

    Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) has become a standard technique for objectively quantifying balance control performance, diagnosing the nature of functional impairments underlying balance disorders, and monitoring clinical treatment outcomes. We have long used CDP protocols to assess recovery of sensory-motor function in astronauts following space flight. The most reliable indicators of post-flight crew performance are the sensory organization tests (SOTs), particularly SOTs 5 and 6, which are sensitive to changes in availability and/or utilization of vestibular cues. We have noted, however, that some astronauts exhibiting obvious signs of balance impairment after flight are able to score within clinical norms on these tests, perhaps as a result of adopting competitive strategies or by their natural skills at substituting alternate sensory information sources. This insensitivity of the CDP protocol could underestimate of the degree of impairment and, perhaps, lead to premature release of those crewmembers to normal duties. To improve the sensitivity of the CDP protocol we have introduced static and dynamic head tilt SOT trials into our protocol. The pattern of postflight recovery quantified by the enhanced CDP protocol appears to more aptly track the re-integration of sensory-motor function, with recovery time increasing as the complexity of sensory-motor/biomechanical task increases. The new CDP protocol therefore seems more suitable for monitoring post-flight sensory-motor recovery and for indicating to crewmembers and flight surgeons fitness for return to duty and/or activities of daily living. There may be classes of patients (e.g., athletes, pilots) having motivation and/or performance characteristics similar to astronauts whose sensory-motor treatment outcomes would also be more accurately monitored using the enhanced CDP protocol. Furthermore, the enhanced protocol may be useful in early detection of age-related balance disorders.

  11. Automating Spreadsheet Discovery & Risk Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Perry, Eric

    2008-01-01

    There have been many articles and mishaps published about the risks of uncontrolled spreadsheets in today's business environment, including non-compliance, operational risk, errors, and fraud all leading to significant loss events. Spreadsheets fall into the realm of end user developed applications and are often absent the proper safeguards and controls an IT organization would enforce for enterprise applications. There is also an overall lack of software programming discipline enforced in how spreadsheets are developed. However, before an organization can apply proper controls and discipline to critical spreadsheets, an accurate and living inventory of spreadsheets across the enterprise must be created, and all critical spreadsheets must be identified. As such, this paper proposes an automated approach to the initial stages of the spreadsheet management lifecycle - discovery, inventory and risk assessment. Without the use of technology, these phases are often treated as a one-off project. By leveraging techn...

  12. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-04-19

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  13. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  14. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE REGULATED WATERCOURSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Bondar-Nowakowska

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Ecological risk has not been identified well enough for the designers and contractors to take any actions for its limitation. It results from the lack of the basis formed to assess its level objectively. The aim of this study was to determine the standards useful in the evaluation of the ecological risk for aquatic plants in rivers, where it is planned to conduct regulatory works. The basis for the analysis were the results of the study performed in 2008–2014 in unmodified and transformed lowland watercourses in Lower Silesia. 41 study sections were analysed in 11 watercourses. 30 sections were located in regulated watercourses, while 11 were in unmodified streams. The research included vascular aquatic plants identification and the degree of the bottom coverage by these plants. As a result of regulatory works qualitative and quantitative changes in aquatic plants communities were observed. The analysis of these changes concerning the range and conditions of works conduction enabled assigning measures to the factors of the considered risk. It served as a basis for describing the risk register and the matrix of risk. The study demonstrated that the most important threats resulting from the river regulation from the point of view of environmental protection are complete shading of watercourse bed, and in some cases, bed widening and deepening, embankments slope of 1: 1, 1: 0, embankments protection with stone material or their concreting.

  15. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  16. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  17. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  18. [Risk assessment in pain therapy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeffel, D; Casser, H R; Bach, M; Kress, H G; Likar, R; Locher, H; Steinleitner, W; Strohmeier, M; Brunner, H; Treede, R D; Zieglgänsberger, W; Sandkühler, J

    2008-10-01

    Analgesic therapy is not without risk. However, the risk of most analgesic interventions is minor compared to the risk of the inadequate treatment of pain and insufficient treatment may lead to chronic pain.A correct diagnosis should be the basis of any specific treatment of pain disorders. Only a diagnosis which implicates a multi-disciplinary assessment and which considers both the pathoanatomical, functional and biopsychosocial dysfunctions can lead to an adequate therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, therapeutic planning should include the personal needs of the patient and should have realistic aims.Pharmacological treatment is guided by the WHO pain ladder. The risks of the relevant substance groups must be considered. NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) which are included in all steps of the WHO pain ladder carry specific risks for the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and renal systems and are contraindicated in many patients in need of analgesic therapy, e.g. in many elderly patients. Opioids which are recommended at steps 2 and 3 of the WHO pain ladder have less organ toxicity but they are still used reluctantly. Coanalgetics, especially antidepressants bear specific risks and the discussion on suicide rates under antidepressant medication is ongoing.Invasive methods such as the intrathecal application of analgesics are valuable procedures if the indication is correct and the treating physician has sufficient experience. Pain therapy is essential and the risks of the procedures are manageable. Considering the current knowledge on the mechanisms of pain sensitisation, the lack of adequate pain control can lead to chronic pain with severe consequences for the patient.

  19. Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

    2016-10-01

    Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

  20. Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bell

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative

  1. Towards the production of reliable quantitative microbiological data for risk assessment: Direct quantification of Campylobacter in naturally infected chicken fecal samples using selective culture and real-time PCR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia Clavero, Ana Belén; Vigre, Håkan; Josefsen, Mathilde Hasseldam

    2015-01-01

    Poultry has been identified as a significant source for human campylobacteriosis which constitutes an important zoonosis and public health problem in many areas of the world. Rapid, direct and accurate quantification of Campylobacter in poultry is essential for the assessment of public health risks...

  2. Informational uncertainties of risk assessment about accidents of chemicals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The uncertainties of the model can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of chemicals. The estimation of the leaking time is important for discussing accidental source term. The uncertain analyses of the release accident for pipeline gas (CO) liquid chlorine and liquid propane gas (LPG) have been discussed.

  3. A literature Survey on the Assessment of Microbiological Risk for Drinking Water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunis PFM; Havelaar AH; Medema GJ; LWL

    1994-01-01

    This literature study introduces the main ingredients of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for pathogenic microorganisms in drinking water: hazard analysis, exposure assessment of dose-response relations, and risk characterization. While QRA potentially rationalizes the processes of setting environme

  4. A literature Survey on the Assessment of Microbiological Risk for Drinking Water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunis PFM; Havelaar AH; Medema GJ; LWL

    1994-01-01

    This literature study introduces the main ingredients of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for pathogenic microorganisms in drinking water: hazard analysis, exposure assessment of dose-response relations, and risk characterization. While QRA potentially rationalizes the processes of setting environm

  5. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  6. Risk assessment and food allergy: the probabilistic model applied to allergens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spanjersberg, M.Q.I.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Rennen, M.A.J.; Houben, G.F.

    2007-01-01

    In order to assess the risk of unintended exposure to food allergens, traditional deterministic risk assessment is usually applied, leading to inconsequential conclusions as 'an allergic reaction cannot be excluded'. TNO therefore developed a quantitative risk assessment model for allergens based on

  7. Risk assessment and food allergy: the probabilistic model applied to allergens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spanjersberg, M.Q.I.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Rennen, M.A.J.; Houben, G.F.

    2007-01-01

    In order to assess the risk of unintended exposure to food allergens, traditional deterministic risk assessment is usually applied, leading to inconsequential conclusions as 'an allergic reaction cannot be excluded'. TNO therefore developed a quantitative risk assessment model for allergens based on

  8. Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toyofuku, Hajime [Food Safety Department, WHO, Geneva (Switzerland)]. E-mail toyofuku@nihs.go.jp

    2006-07-01

    For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world.

  9. Quantitative assessment of breast density from digitized mammograms into Tabar's patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamal, N [Medical Technology Division, Malaysian Institute for Nuclear Technology Research (MINT) 43000 Kajang (Malaysia); Ng, K-H [Department of Radiology, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Looi, L-M [Department of Pathology, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); McLean, D [Medical Physics Department, Westmead Hospital, Sydney, NSW 2145 (Australia); Zulfiqar, A [Department of Radiology, Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 56000 Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (Malaysia); Tan, S-P [Department of Radiology, Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 56000 Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (Malaysia); Liew, W-F [Department of Radiology, Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 56000 Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (Malaysia); Shantini, A [Department of Radiology, Kuala Lumpur Hospital, 50586 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Ranganathan, S [Department of Radiology, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

    2006-11-21

    We describe a semi-automated technique for the quantitative assessment of breast density from digitized mammograms in comparison with patterns suggested by Tabar. It was developed using the MATLAB-based graphical user interface applications. It is based on an interactive thresholding method, after a short automated method that shows the fibroglandular tissue area, breast area and breast density each time new thresholds are placed on the image. The breast density is taken as a percentage of the fibroglandular tissue to the breast tissue areas. It was tested in four different ways, namely by examining: (i) correlation of the quantitative assessment results with subjective classification, (ii) classification performance using the quantitative assessment technique, (iii) interobserver agreement and (iv) intraobserver agreement. The results of the quantitative assessment correlated well (r{sup 2} = 0.92) with the subjective Tabar patterns classified by the radiologist (correctly classified 83% of digitized mammograms). The average kappa coefficient for the agreement between the readers was 0.63. This indicated moderate agreement between the three observers in classifying breast density using the quantitative assessment technique. The kappa coefficient of 0.75 for intraobserver agreement reflected good agreement between two sets of readings. The technique may be useful as a supplement to the radiologist's assessment in classifying mammograms into Tabar's pattern associated with breast cancer risk.

  10. Quantitative wearable sensors for objective assessment of Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maetzler, Walter; Domingos, Josefa; Srulijes, Karin; Ferreira, Joaquim J; Bloem, Bastiaan R

    2013-10-01

    There is a rapidly growing interest in the quantitative assessment of Parkinson's disease (PD)-associated signs and disability using wearable technology. Both persons with PD and their clinicians see advantages in such developments. Specifically, quantitative assessments using wearable technology may allow for continuous, unobtrusive, objective, and ecologically valid data collection. Also, this approach may improve patient-doctor interaction, influence therapeutic decisions, and ultimately ameliorate patients' global health status. In addition, such measures have the potential to be used as outcome parameters in clinical trials, allowing for frequent assessments; eg, in the home setting. This review discusses promising wearable technology, addresses which parameters should be prioritized in such assessment strategies, and reports about studies that have already investigated daily life issues in PD using this new technology.

  11. Quantitative proteomic assessment of very early cellular signaling events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dengjel, Joern; Akimov, Vyacheslav; Olsen, Jesper V

    2007-01-01

    Technical limitations have prevented proteomic analyses of events occurring less than 30 s after signal initiation. We developed an automated, continuous quench-flow system allowing quantitative proteomic assessment of very early cellular signaling events (qPACE) with a time resolution of 1 s...

  12. Qualitative and Quantitative Hippocampal MRI Assessments in Intractable Epilepsy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paramdeep Singh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To acquire normative data of hippocampal volumes and T2 relaxation times, to evaluate and compare qualitative and quantitative assessments in evaluating hippocampi in patients with different durations of intractable epilepsy, and to propose an imaging protocol based on performance of these techniques. Methods. MRI analysis was done in 50 nonepileptic controls and 30 patients with intractable epilepsy on 1.5T scanner. Visual assessment and hippocampal volumetry were done on oblique coronal IR/T2W and T1W MP-RAGE images, respectively. T2 relaxation times were measured using 16-echo Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill sequence. Volumetric data was normalized for variation in head size between individuals. Patients were divided into temporal ( and extratemporal ( groups based on clinical and EEG localization. Results. In controls, right hippocampal volume was slightly more than the left with no effect of age or gender. In TLE patients, hippocampal volumetry provided maximum concordance with EEG. Visual assessment of unilateral pathology concurred well with measured quantitative values but poorly in cases with bilateral pathologies. There were no significant differences of mean values between extratemporal group and controls group. Quantitative techniques detected mild abnormalities, undetected on visual assessment. Conclusions. Quantitative techniques are more sensitive to diagnose bilateral and mild unilateral hippocampal abnormalities.

  13. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  14. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    their relationship. The experiences accumulated during the preparation of several case studies in a large scale international project (RAPID) are used for argumentation and formulation of recommendations on how risk assessment can be systematically integrated into the HIA process. Risk assessment uses well...... than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... in the risk appraisal phase to describe effects of various factors on different health outcomes. Consequently, HIA is typically led by a large, preferably intersectoral steering group with representatives of communities at risk. Risk assessment, in contrary, is mainly a licensed scientific process completed...

  15. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  16. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  17. A probabilistic method for computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injuries compensation claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalle Carbonare, S; Folli, F; Patrini, E; Giudici, P; Bellazzi, R

    2013-01-01

    The increasing demand of health care services and the complexity of health care delivery require Health Care Organizations (HCOs) to approach clinical risk management through proper methods and tools. An important aspect of risk management is to exploit the analysis of medical injuries compensation claims in order to reduce adverse events and, at the same time, to optimize the costs of health insurance policies. This work provides a probabilistic method to estimate the risk level of a HCO by computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injury compensation claims. Our method is based on the estimate of a loss probability distribution from compensation claims data through parametric and non-parametric modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. The loss distribution can be estimated both on the whole dataset and, thanks to the application of a Bayesian hierarchical model, on stratified data. The approach allows to quantitatively assessing the risk structure of the HCO by analyzing the loss distribution and deriving its expected value and percentiles. We applied the proposed method to 206 cases of injuries with compensation requests collected from 1999 to the first semester of 2007 by the HCO of Lodi, in the Northern part of Italy. We computed the risk indexes taking into account the different clinical departments and the different hospitals involved. The approach proved to be useful to understand the HCO risk structure in terms of frequency, severity, expected and unexpected loss related to adverse events.

  18. Multiparametric Quantitative Ultrasound Imaging in Assessment of Chronic Kidney Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jing; Perlman, Alan; Kalache, Safa; Berman, Nathaniel; Seshan, Surya; Salvatore, Steven; Smith, Lindsey; Wehrli, Natasha; Waldron, Levi; Kodali, Hanish; Chevalier, James

    2017-04-13

    To evaluate the value of multiparametric quantitative ultrasound imaging in assessing chronic kidney disease (CKD) using kidney biopsy pathologic findings as reference standards. We prospectively measured multiparametric quantitative ultrasound markers with grayscale, spectral Doppler, and acoustic radiation force impulse imaging in 25 patients with CKD before kidney biopsy and 10 healthy volunteers. Based on all pathologic (glomerulosclerosis, interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy, arteriosclerosis, and edema) scores, the patients with CKD were classified into mild (no grade 3 and quantitative ultrasound parameters included kidney length, cortical thickness, pixel intensity, parenchymal shear wave velocity, intrarenal artery peak systolic velocity (PSV), end-diastolic velocity (EDV), and resistive index. We tested the difference in quantitative ultrasound parameters among mild CKD, moderate to severe CKD, and healthy controls using analysis of variance, analyzed correlations of quantitative ultrasound parameters with pathologic scores and the estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) using Pearson correlation coefficients, and examined the diagnostic performance of quantitative ultrasound parameters in determining moderate CKD and an estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. There were significant differences in cortical thickness, pixel intensity, PSV, and EDV among the 3 groups (all P quantitative ultrasound parameters, the top areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for PSV and EDV were 0.88 and 0.97, respectively, for determining pathologic moderate to severe CKD, and 0.76 and 0.86 for estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) . Moderate to good correlations were found for PSV, EDV, and pixel intensity with pathologic scores and estimated GFR. The PSV, EDV, and pixel intensity are valuable in determining moderate to severe CKD. The value of shear wave velocity in

  19. Use of mechanistic simulations as a quantitative risk-ranking tool within the quality by design framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Elena; Toschkoff, Gregor; Sacher, Stephan; Khinast, Johannes G

    2014-11-20

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the use of computer simulations for generating quantitative knowledge as a basis for risk ranking and mechanistic process understanding, as required by ICH Q9 on quality risk management systems. In this specific publication, the main focus is the demonstration of a risk assessment workflow, including a computer simulation for the generation of mechanistic understanding of active tablet coating in a pan coater. Process parameter screening studies are statistically planned under consideration of impacts on a potentially critical quality attribute, i.e., coating mass uniformity. Based on computer simulation data the process failure mode and effects analysis of the risk factors is performed. This results in a quantitative criticality assessment of process parameters and the risk priority evaluation of failure modes. The factor for a quantitative reassessment of the criticality and risk priority is the coefficient of variation, which represents the coating mass uniformity. The major conclusion drawn from this work is a successful demonstration of the integration of computer simulation in the risk management workflow leading to an objective and quantitative risk assessment.

  20. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...... to a wide range of technical limitations. For instance, serious knowledge gaps remain within e.g. the detection of NM in the environment, developing adequate testing equipment and protocols, and toxicity endpoints (Grieger et al., 2009). In the past few years, many scientists and organizations have...... of uncertainty, degree of precaution, inclusion of quantitative or qualitative data, inclusion of life-cycle perspective, iterative and/or adaptive, ensuring timely decision making, and degree of transparency. This analysis can ultimately assist scientists, government agencies, organizations, and other...

  1. EPA`s program for risk assessment guidelines: Quantification issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dourson, M.L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The quantitative procedures associated with noncancer risk assessment include reference dose (RfD), benchmark dose, and severity modeling. The RfD, which is part of the EPA risk assessment guidelines, is an estimation of a level that is likely to be without any health risk to sensitive individuals. The RfD requires two major judgments: the first is choice of a critical effect(s) and its No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL); the second judgment is choice of an uncertainty factor. This paper discusses major assumptions and limitations of the RfD model.

  2. Assessing Landscape Ecological Risk in a Mining City: A Case Study in Liaoyuan City, China

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Landscape ecological risk assessment can effectively identify key elements for landscape sustainability, which directly improves human wellbeing. However, previous research has tended to apply risk probability, measured by overlaying landscape metrics to evaluate risk, generally lacking a quantitative assessment of loss and uncertainty of risk. This study, taking Liaoyuan City as a case area, explores landscape ecological risk assessment associated with mining cities, based on probability of ...

  3. Quantitative risk stratification of oral leukoplakia with exfoliative cytology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Liu

    Full Text Available Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC. Test outcome is reported as "negative", "atypical" (defined as abnormal epithelial changes of uncertain diagnostic significance, and "positive" (defined as definitive cellular evidence of epithelial dysplasia or carcinoma. The major challenge is how to properly manage the "atypical" patients in order to diagnose OSCC early and prevent OSCC. In this study, we collected exfoliative cytology data, histopathology data, and clinical data of normal subjects (n=102, oral leukoplakia (OLK patients (n=82, and OSCC patients (n=93, and developed a data analysis procedure for quantitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This procedure involving a step called expert-guided data transformation and reconstruction (EdTAR which allows automatic data processing and reconstruction and reveals informative signals for subsequent risk stratification. Modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Among the several models tested using resampling methods for parameter pruning and performance evaluation, Support Vector Machine (SVM was found to be optimal with a high sensitivity (median>0.98 and specificity (median>0.99. With the SVM model, we constructed an oral cancer risk index (OCRI which may potentially guide clinical follow-up of OLK patients. One OLK patient with an initial OCRI of 0.88 developed OSCC after 40 months of follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed a statistical method for qualitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This method may potentially improve cost-effectiveness of clinical follow-up of OLK patients, and help design clinical chemoprevention trial for high-risk populations.

  4. Quantitative risk stratification of oral leukoplakia with exfoliative cytology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yao; Li, Jianying; Liu, Xiaoyong; Liu, Xudong; Khawar, Waqaar; Zhang, Xinyan; Wang, Fan; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Test outcome is reported as "negative", "atypical" (defined as abnormal epithelial changes of uncertain diagnostic significance), and "positive" (defined as definitive cellular evidence of epithelial dysplasia or carcinoma). The major challenge is how to properly manage the "atypical" patients in order to diagnose OSCC early and prevent OSCC. In this study, we collected exfoliative cytology data, histopathology data, and clinical data of normal subjects (n=102), oral leukoplakia (OLK) patients (n=82), and OSCC patients (n=93), and developed a data analysis procedure for quantitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This procedure involving a step called expert-guided data transformation and reconstruction (EdTAR) which allows automatic data processing and reconstruction and reveals informative signals for subsequent risk stratification. Modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Among the several models tested using resampling methods for parameter pruning and performance evaluation, Support Vector Machine (SVM) was found to be optimal with a high sensitivity (median>0.98) and specificity (median>0.99). With the SVM model, we constructed an oral cancer risk index (OCRI) which may potentially guide clinical follow-up of OLK patients. One OLK patient with an initial OCRI of 0.88 developed OSCC after 40 months of follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed a statistical method for qualitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This method may potentially improve cost-effectiveness of clinical follow-up of OLK patients, and help design clinical chemoprevention trial for high-risk populations.

  5. Some Suggested Future Directions of Quantitative Resource Assessments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Future quantitative assessments will be expected to estimate quantities, values, and locations of undiscovered mineral resources in a form that conveys both economic viability and uncertainty associated with the resources. Historically, declining metal prices point to the need for larger deposits over time. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the greatest opportunity for reducing uncertainty in assessments lies in lowering uncertainty associated with tonnage estimates. Of all errors possible in assessments, those affecting tonnage estimates are by far the most important. Selecting the correct deposit model is the most important way of controlling errors because of the dominance of tonnage-deposit models are the best known predictors of tonnage. Much of the surface is covered with apparently barren rocks and sediments in many large regions. Because many exposed mineral deposits are believed to have been found, a prime concern is the presence of possible mineralized rock under cover. Assessments of areas with resources under cover must rely on extrapolation from surrounding areas, new geologic maps of rocks under cover, or analogy with other well-explored areas that can be considered training tracts. Cover has a profound effect on uncertainty and on methods and procedures of assessments because geology is seldom known and geophysical methods typically have attenuated responses. Many earlier assessment methods were based on relationships of geochemical and geophysical variables to deposits learned from deposits exposed on the surface—these will need to be relearned based on covered deposits. Mineral-deposit models are important in quantitative resource assessments for two reasons: (1) grades and tonnages of most deposit types are significantly different, and (2) deposit types are present in different geologic settings that can be identified from geologic maps. Mineral-deposit models are the keystone in combining the diverse geoscience information on geology

  6. Banding approach for engineered nanomaterial risk assessment and control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hoornick, Nausikaä; Prodanov, Dimiter; Pardon, Alain

    2017-06-01

    Since there is a lack of sufficient toxicological information about engineered nanomaterials, and since within the semiconductor research and manufacturing use is already made of these materials, an alternative for the classical quantitative risk assessment was sought. Within the research facilities of imec use is made of a banding technique to determine the risks associated with the nanomaterial research. The method and the measures that are taken are discussed in the paper. The method has been benchmarked with other available techniques.

  7. Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic u...

  8. Quantitative Assessment of Visceral Obesity and Postoperative Colon Cancer Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozoya, Oluwatobi O; Siegel, Erin M; Srikumar, Thejal; Bloomer, Amanda M; DeRenzis, Amanda; Shibata, David

    2017-03-01

    Quantitative computed tomography (CT) assessment of visceral adiposity may be superior to body mass index (BMI) as a predictor of surgical morbidity. We sought to examine the association of CT measures of obesity and BMI with short-term postoperative outcomes in colon cancer patients. In this retrospective study, 110 patients treated with colectomy for stage I-III colon cancer were classified as obese or non-obese by preoperative CT-based measures of adiposity or BMI [obese: BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2), visceral fat area (VFA) to subcutaneous fat area ratio (V/S) ≥0.4, and VFA > 100 cm(2)]. Postoperative morbidity and mortality rates were compared. Obese patients, by V/S and VFA but not BMI, were more likely to be male and have preexisting hypertension and diabetes. The overall complication rate was 25.5%, and there were no mortalities. Obese patients by VFA (with a trend for V/S but not BMI) were more likely to develop postoperative complications as compared to patients classified as non-obese: VFA (30.5 vs.10.7%, p = 0.03), V/S (29.2 vs. 9.5%, p = 0.05), and BMI (32.4 vs. 21.9%, p = 0.23). Elevated visceral obesity quantified by CT is associated with the presence of key metabolic comorbidities and increased postoperative morbidity and may be superior to BMI for risk stratification.

  9. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Ramón Porta-Sancho, Juan

    2016-07-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

  10. Quantitative risk analysis offshore-Human and organizational factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espen Skogdalen, Jon, E-mail: jon.espen.skogdalen@gmail.co [Department of Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning, University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway); Vinnem, Jan Erik, E-mail: jev@preventor.n [Department of Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning, University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)

    2011-04-15

    Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) are one of the main tools for risk management within the Norwegian and UK oil and gas industry. Much criticism has been given to the limitations related to the QRA-models and that the QRAs do not include human and organizational factors (HOF-factors). Norway and UK offshore legislation and guidelines require that the HOF-factors are included in the QRAs. A study of 15 QRAs shows that the factors are to some extent included, and there are large differences between the QRAs. The QRAs are categorized into four levels according to the findings. Level 1 QRAs do not describe or comment on the HOF-factors at all. Relevant research projects have been conducted to fulfill the requirements of Level 3 analyses. At this level, there is a systematic collection of data related to HOF. The methods are systematic and documented, and the QRAs are adjusted. None of the QRAs fulfill the Level 4 requirements. Level 4 QRAs include the model and describe the HOF-factors as well as explain how the results should be followed up in the overall risk management. Safety audits by regulatory authorities are probably necessary to point out the direction for QRA and speed up the development.

  11. Qualitative risk assessment: a conceptual context and three diverse applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elsea, K.J.; Conger, D.S. (Conger and Elsea, Inc., Woodstock, GA (United States))

    1992-01-01

    Risk is defined as the probability of an occurrence multiplied by the consequences of that occurrence. Such a definition implies a quantitative or at least a mathematical operation. However, qualitative uses of risk have proved useful tools in incident investigation and management decision making. This paper provides a conceptual context for qualitative risk assessment and discusses three efforts at subject organizations (an aerospace firm, a US Department of Energy weapons-related facility, and a commercial nuclear reactor) that have applied qualitative risk techniques for different uses and with different results. A lessons-learned section summarizes and provides future direction.

  12. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  13. Microbial risk assessment for urban pluvial flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterk, G.; Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Clemens, F.H.L.R.; Berends, B.R.

    2008-01-01

    Public health risks of urban pluvial flooding have so far received little attention in technical discussions. In this paper, the results of pathogen measurements in the sewer system of Utrecht and an urban flooding experiment are presented and used in an application of Quantitative Microbial Risk

  14. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  15. From Hazard to Risk - Assessing the Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madsen, C.B.; Houben, G.; Hattersley, S.; Crevel, R.W.R.; Remington, B.C.; Baumert, J.L.

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory thresholds for allergenic foods have not yet been developed. This means that public and industrial risk managers do not have regulatory thresholds to decide if a content or level of contamination is acceptable or not. For a long time, data have been inadequate to define safe thresholds fo

  16. Fuzzy based risk register for construction project risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchta, Dorota; Ptaszyńska, Ewa

    2017-07-01

    The paper contains fuzzy based risk register used to identify risks which appear in construction projects and to assess their attributes. Risk is considered here as a possible event with negative consequences for the project [4]. We use different risk attributes in the proposed risk register. Values of risk attributes are generated by using fuzzy numbers. Specific risk attributes have different importance for project managers of construction projects. To compare specific risk attributes we use methods of fuzzy numbers ranking. The main strengths of the proposed concept in managing construction projects are also presented in the paper.

  17. Advances in the assessment of suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Craig J; Rudd, M David

    2006-02-01

    This article reviews and integrates empirically grounded advances in the assessment of suicidality. The practices discussed are consistent with existing standards of care, practice guidelines, and applicable research. The authors differentiate between risk assessment and prediction and then emphasize the important role of time in risk assessment. We present and illustrate a continuum of suicidality for risk assessment and offer practical recommendations for clinical decision making and treatment. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  19. Quantitative transverse flow assessment using OCT speckle decorrelation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Huang, Yong; Ramella-Roman, Jessica C.; Kang, Jin U.

    2013-03-01

    In this study, we demonstrate the use of inter-Ascan speckle decorrelation analysis of optical coherence tomography (OCT) to assess fluid flow. This method allows quantitative measurement of fluid flow in a plane normal to the scanning beam. To validate this method, OCT images were obtained from a micro fluid channel with bovine milk flowing at different speeds. We also imaged a blood vessel from in vivo animal models and performed speckle analysis to asses blood flow.

  20. Towards Developing a Quantitative Literacy/Reasoning Assessment Instrument

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Gaze

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This article reports on the development and implementation of a non-proprietary assessment instrument for Quantitative Literacy/Reasoning. This instrument was based on prior work by Bowdoin College, Colby-Sawyer College, and Wellesley College and was piloted in 2012 and 2013. This article presents a discussion of its development as well as the results of the pilot implementation. This work was supported by a TUES Type 1 grant from the National Science Foundation.

  1. Ultrasonic elastography in clinical quantitative assessment of fatty liver

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the clinical application of ultrasonic elastography in quantitative assessment of fatty liver grading. METHODS: A total of 105 patients with fatty liver were divided into mild group (n = 46), moderate group (n = 39), and severe group (n = 20). Forty-five healthy individuals served as a normal control group. All patients who underwent routine ultrasound scan and further ultrasonic elastography were evaluated accordingly to the evaluation standards for ultrasonic elastography. The ratio of...

  2. The rise of behavioural economics : a quantitative assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Geiger, Niels

    2015-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the question of operationalising the development of behavioural economics, focussing on trends in the academic literature. The main research goal is to provide a quantitative assessment in order to answer the question of whether or not behavioural economics has gained in relative importance in the past few years. After an introduction and a short summary of the history of behavioural economics, several studies are laid out and evaluated. The results generally confirm ...

  3. Applying quantitative benefit-risk analysis to aid regulatory decision making in diagnostic imaging: methods, challenges, and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P

    2014-09-01

    Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  4. Quantitative scintigraphic parameters for the assessment of renal transplant patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El Maghraby, T.A.F.; Eck-Smit, B.L.F. van; Pauwels, E.K.J. [Department of Radiology, Division of Nuclear Medicine, Leiden University Medical Centre, P.O. Box 9600, 2300 RC Leiden (Netherlands); Fijter, J.W. de [Department of Nephrology, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden (Netherlands)

    1998-10-01

    Radionuclide renal diagnostic studies play an important role in assessing renal allograft function especially in the early post transplant period. In the last two decades various quantitative parameters have been derived from the radionuclide renogram to facilitate and confirm the changes in perfusion and/or function of the kidney allograft. In this review article we discuss the quantitative parameters that have been used to assess graft condition with emphasis on the early post-operative period. These quantitative methods were divided into parameters used for assessing renal graft perfusion and parameters used for evaluating parenchymal function. The blood flow in renal transplants can be quantified by measuring (a) the rate of activity appearance in the kidney graft; (b) the ratio of the integral activity under the transplanted kidney and arterial curves e.g. Hilson's perfusion index and Kircher's kidney/aortic ratio; (c) calculating the renal vascular transit time by deconvolution analysis. The literature overview on these parameters showed us that they have some practical disadvantages of requiring high quality bolus injection and numerical variations related to changes in the site and size of regions of interest. In addition, the perfusion parameter values suffer from significant overlap when various graft pathologies coexist. Quantitative evaluation of the graft parenchymal extraction and excretion was assessed by parameters derived from {sup 123}I/{sup 131}I-OIH,{sup 99m}Tc-DTPA or {sup 99m}Tc-MAG3 renograms. We review in this article a number of parenchymal parameters which include (1) plasma clearance methods like glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and effective renal plasma flow (ERPF); (2) renal transit times such as parenchymal mean transit time, T{sub max}, T{sub 1/2}; (3) parenchymal uptake and excretion indices as the accumulation index, graft uptake capacity at 2 and 10 min, excretion index and elimination index. These indices, however, are

  5. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  6. Energy potential of region and its quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatyana Aleksandrovna Kovalenko

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is the development of the concept of the energy potential of the region (EPR, the analysis of the existing structure of relationships for the EPR elements in Ukraine and improvement of a quantitative assessment of energy potential of the region (country. The methods of an assessment of the existing condition of energy potential of the territory are the subject matter of the research. As a result of the analysis of concept’s definitions of energy potential of the region, it has further development and included the consumer potential of energy resources and capacity of management. The structure of relationships between elements of energy potential is developed for the Ukraine region. The new economic indicator — the realized energy potential is offered for an EPR assessment. By means of this indicator, the assessment of energy potential for the different countries of the world and a number of Ukraine areas of is performed.

  7. Pressure sore risk assessment in palliative care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin, J

    2000-01-01

    Pressure sore prevention in palliative care is recognized as being an essential element of holistic care, with the primary goal of promoting quality of life for patient and family. Little is known about the incidence of pressure sore development and the use of pressure sore risk assessment tools in palliative care settings. The development of a risk assessment tool specifically for palliative care patients in a 41-bedded specialist palliative care unit is described. The risk assessment tool was developed as part of a tissue viability practice development initiative. The approach adopted in the validation of the Hunters Hill Marie Curie Centre pressure sore risk assessment tool was the comparative analysis of professional judgment of experienced palliative care nurses with the numerical scores achieved during the assessment of risk on 291 patients (529 risk assessment events). This comparative analysis identified the threshold for different degrees of risk for the patient group involved: low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk. Further work is being undertaken to evaluate the inter-rater reliability of the new tool. A number of issues are explored in this paper in relation to pressure sore prevention in palliative care: the role of risk assessment tools, the sometimes conflicting aims of trying to ensure comfort and prevent pressure sore damage, and the uncertainties faced by palliative care nurses when they are trying to maintain quality of life for the dying.

  8. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of cobalt metal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Mina; Thompson, Chad M; Brorby, Gregory P; Mittal, Liz; Proctor, Deborah M

    2016-08-01

    Cobalt compounds (metal, salts, hard metals, oxides, and alloys) are used widely in various industrial, medical and military applications. Chronic inhalation exposure to cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate has caused lung cancer in rats and mice, as well as systemic tumors in rats. Cobalt compounds are listed as probable or possible human carcinogens by some agencies, and there is a need for quantitative cancer toxicity criteria. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has derived a provisional inhalation unit risk (IUR) of 0.009 per μg/m(3) based on a chronic inhalation study of soluble cobalt sulfate heptahydrate; however, a recent 2-year cancer bioassay affords the opportunity to derive IURs specifically for cobalt metal. The mechanistic data support that the carcinogenic mode of action (MOA) is likely to involve oxidative stress, and thus, non-linear/threshold mechanisms. However, the lack of a detailed MOA and use of high, toxic exposure concentrations in the bioassay (≥1.25 mg/m(3)) preclude derivation of a reference concentration (RfC) protective of cancer. Several analyses resulted in an IUR of 0.003 per μg/m(3) for cobalt metal, which is ∼3-fold less potent than the provisional IUR. Future research should focus on establishing the exposure-response for key precursor events to improve cobalt metal risk assessment.

  9. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.