Effects of harsh parenting and positive parenting practices on youth aggressive behavior: The moderating role of early pubertal timing.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Frances R; Raine, Adrian

2018-01-01

Prior research indicates that early pubertal timing is associated with aggressive behavior, particularly in the context of adversity as postulated in the contextual amplification hypothesis. However, few studies have examined harsh parenting as the context for the effect of early pubertal timing. Even fewer studies have tested the interactive effect of early pubertal timing and positive parenting on aggressive behavior. In this study, we tested the proposition that early pubertal timing, contrary to the general conception of it as a vulnerability, indexed susceptibility, and thus early maturing individuals were affected more by their environment in a "for better and for worse" manner. The sample consisted of 411 community-recruited youth aged 11-12 years (51% boys, 80% African Americans). Participants reported Tanner Stages of pubertal development, aggressive behavior and harsh parenting practice of their parents. Puberty scores were standardized with groups of the same age, sex, and ethnicity, and those that scored the top one-third were defined as early maturing individuals. Parents reported youth's aggressive behavior and their parenting practices towards the youth, including harsh parenting and positive parenting. Early pubertal timing significantly moderated the relationship between harsh/positive parenting and aggressive behavior. Specifically, harsh parenting was positively associated with aggressive behavior to a larger degree among early maturing individuals than among on-time/late-maturing individuals. Positive parenting was inversely associated with aggressive behavior but only among early maturing individuals. This study is the first to document support for early pubertal timing as susceptibility to the environmental influences in relation to aggressive behavior. Theoretical and intervention implications are discussed. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pubertal development, personality, and substance use: a 10-year longitudinal study from childhood to adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; Parent, Sophie; Vitaro, Frank; Tremblay, Richard E; Séguin, Jean R

2013-08-01

Most research linking early pubertal development to substance use has focused on the effects of pubertal timing (age at which a certain stage of pubertal development is reached or pubertal status at a particular age--related to the maturation disparity hypothesis), but little research has focused on pubertal tempo (rate of growth through pubertal stages--related to the maturation compression hypothesis). However, both timing and tempo have not only been identified as important components of pubertal development, with different predictors, but have also been shown to be independently associated with other adolescent psychopathologies. Using latent growth-curve modeling, this study examined how pubertal status at age 12 and pubertal tempo (between 11 and 13 years) related to substance use from 15 to 16 years in boys from low socioeconomic backgrounds (N = 871). Results showed that both pubertal status at age 12 and tempo were significant predictors of increased levels of substance use and problems in mid to late adolescence. In an attempt to identify mechanisms that may explain the association between pubertal development and substance use it was found that sensation seeking partially mediated the association between pubertal status at age 12 and substance use behaviors. Impulse control was found to moderate the association sensation seeking had with marijuana use frequency, with high sensation-seeking scores predicting higher marijuana use frequency only at low levels of impulse control. These findings highlight the importance of considering multiple sources of individual variability in the pubertal development of boys and provide support for both the maturational disparity and compression hypotheses. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Recent changes in pubertal timing in healthy Danish boys

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, K; Aksglæde, Lise; Petersen, Jørgen Holm

2010-01-01

In the 1990s, the American population-based study NHANES III renewed the focus on possible secular trends in male puberty. However, no conclusions could be made on pubertal onset due to the lack of compatible data.......In the 1990s, the American population-based study NHANES III renewed the focus on possible secular trends in male puberty. However, no conclusions could be made on pubertal onset due to the lack of compatible data....

Peer Exclusion During the Pubertal Transition: The Role of Social Competence.

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, Rona; Halawah, Amira; Trinh, Sarah L

2018-01-01

For some youth, early puberty is accompanied by peer exclusion. Yet early developers may experience less peer exclusion if they have social competence, which would bolster their ability to develop and maintain positive relationships with their peers. Accordingly, the present study tests whether pubertal timing and tempo predicts decrements in children's social competence and whether decrements in social competence account for associations between puberty (timing and tempo) and peer exclusion over time. Longitudinal data were drawn from 1364 families (48% female; 76% White; M = 9.32 years, SD = .48, at Wave 3) who participated in Waves 3-5 (i.e., grades 4-6) of Phase III of the NICHD-SECCYD. The results from latent growth curve models indicated that earlier pubertal timing and more rapid pubertal tempo among girls were associated with high initial levels of peer exclusion. Moreover, mediation analyses revealed that early developers' susceptibility to peer exclusion was associated with their initial level of social competence. In boys, pubertal timing and tempo were not directly associated with peer exclusion; instead, indirect effects of pubertal timing on peer exclusion (intercept, slope) occurred through initial levels of social competence. On average, early developers' who had low levels of social competence also had high initial levels of peer exclusion but experienced decrements in peer exclusion over time. The association between the intercepts for puberty and peer exclusion and the slopes for social competence and peer exclusion were stronger for boys than girls. Overall, our findings suggest that early developers' susceptibility to and experiences of peer exclusion are associated with their development of social competence.

Development and Lability in the Parent-Child Relationship During Adolescence: Associations With Pubertal Timing and Tempo

Science.gov (United States)

Marceau, Kristine; Ram, Nilam; Susman, Elizabeth

2014-01-01

Adolescents' and parents' reactions to pubertal development are hypothesized to contribute to changes in family dynamics. Using 7-year longitudinal data from the NICHD-SECCYD (488 boys, 475 girls) we examined relations between pubertal development (timing, tempo) and trajectories (developmental change and year-to-year lability) of parent-child conflict and closeness from age 8.5 to 15.5 years. Changes were mostly characterized by year-to-year fluctuations – lability. Parent-child conflict increased and closeness decreased some with age. Pubertal timing and tempo were more consistently associated with lability in parent-child relationships than with long-term trends, although faster tempo was associated with steeper decreases in parent-child closeness. Findings provide a platform for examining how puberty contributes to both long-term and transient changes in adolescents' relationships and adjustment. PMID:26321856

Pubertal development timing in urban Chinese boys.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, H-M; Chen, S-K; Chen, R-M; Zhu, C; Xiong, F; Li, T; Wang, W; Liu, G-L; Luo, X-P; Liu, L; Du, M-L

2011-10-01

We describe current pubertal development in healthy urban Chinese boys. A cross-sectional study of the pubertal development of 18,807 urban Chinese boys aged from 3.50 to 18.49years was conducted between 2003 and 2005. Testicular volume was evaluated with a Prader orchidometer. Pubic hair development was assessed according to the Tanner method. Data on spermarche were collected using the status quo method. Probit analysis was used to calculate the median age and 95% CI at different stages of testicular development, pubic hair development and spermarche. By age 9, 12.99% of the boys had a testicular volume of 4mL or greater. The median age of onset of puberty defined as the age at attainment of testicular volume of 4mL or greater was 10.55 (95% CI 10.27-10.79) years. The median age for onset of pubic hair development (PH(2) ) and spermarche was 12.78 (95%CI 12.67-12.89) years and 14.05 (95%CI 13.80-14.32) years, respectively. Pubertal onset in urban Chinese boys is earlier than currently used clinical norms but their pubic hair development occurs relatively late in comparison with the reported data from numerous other countries. There is also evidence of a secular trend towards an earlier age of spermarche since 1979 in Chinese urban boys. © 2011 The Authors. International Journal of Andrology © 2011 European Academy of Andrology.

Elite athletes and pubertal delay.

Science.gov (United States)

Kapczuk, Karina

2017-10-01

Intensive physical training and participation in competitive sports during childhood and early adolescence may affect athletes' pubertal development. On the other hand, pubertal timing, early or late, may impact on an athlete selection for a particular sport. Genetic predisposition, training load, nutritional status and psychological stress determine athletes' pubertal timing. Athletes that practice esthetic sports, especially gymnasts, are predisposed to a delay in pubertal development. The growing evidence indicates that energy deficiency, not a systemic training per se, plays a crucial role in the pathogenesis of functional hypothalamic hypogonadism in female athletes. Metabolic and psychologic stress activate hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and suppress hypothalamic-pituitary-ovarian axis. Female athletes who do not begin secondary sexual development by the age of 14 or menstruation by the age of 16 warrant a comprehensive evaluation and a targeted treatment. Somatic growth and sexual maturation of elite female athletes are largely sport-specific since each sport favors a particular somatotype and requires a specific training. Chronic negative energy balance resulting from a systemic physical training and inadequate energy intake may delay pubertal development in elite athletes. Youth athletes, especially those engaged in competitive sports that emphasize prepubertal or lean appearance, are at risk of developing relative energy deficiency in sport associated with disordered eating or eating disorders. Management strategies should address the complex conditions underlying functional hypothalamic hypogonadism.

Pubertal Timing and Early Sexual Intercourse in the Offspring of Teenage Mothers

Science.gov (United States)

De Genna, Natacha M.; Larkby, Cynthia; Cornelius, Marie D.

2011-01-01

Early puberty is associated with stressful family environments, early sexual intercourse, and teenage pregnancy. We examined pubertal timing and sexual debut among the 14-year-old offspring of teenage mothers. Mothers (71% Black, 29% White) were recruited as pregnant teenagers (12-18 years old). Data were collected during pregnancy and when…

Role of amygdala kisspeptin in pubertal timing in female rats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel A Adekunbi

Full Text Available To investigate the mechanism by which maternal obesity disrupts reproductive function in offspring, we examined Kiss1 expression in the hypothalamic arcuate (ARC and anteroventral periventricular (AVPV nuclei, and posterodorsal medial amygdala (MePD of pre-pubertal and young adult offspring. Sprague-Dawley rats were fed either a standard or energy-dense diet for six weeks prior to mating and throughout pregnancy and lactation. Male and female offspring were weaned onto normal diet on postnatal day (pnd 21. Brains were collected on pnd 30 or 100 for qRT-PCR to determine Kiss1 mRNA levels. Maternal obesity increased Kiss1 mRNA expression in the MePD of pre-pubertal male and female offspring, whereas Kiss1 expression was not affected in the ARC or AVPV at this age. Maternal obesity reduced Kiss1 expression in all three brain regions of 3 month old female offspring, but only in MePD of males. The role of MePD kisspeptin on puberty, estrous cyclicity and preovulatory LH surges was assessed directly in a separate group of post-weanling and young adult female rats exposed to a normal diet throughout their life course. Bilateral intra-MePD cannulae connected to osmotic mini-pumps for delivery of kisspeptin receptor antagonist (Peptide 234 for 14 days were chronically implanted on pnd 21 or 100. Antagonism of MePD kisspeptin delayed puberty onset, disrupted estrous cyclicity and reduced the incidence of LH surges. These data show that the MePD plays a key role in pubertal timing and ovulation and that maternal obesity may act via amygdala kisspeptin signaling to influence reproductive function in the offspring.

Role Of Serum Lectin In Derangement Of PUBERTAL Timing In Thalassaemic Patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MOAWAD, A.T.; NASSAR, E.M.; EL-NASHAR, N.A.

2010-01-01

patients with delayed puberty. Serum leptin levels showed a negative correlation with ferritin levels and positive correlations with each of serum FSH, LH and testosterone in males and estradiol in females in both patients groups. It could be concluded that adipose tissue dysfunction, due to iron overload, could be considered as one of the endocrinopathies affecting thalassaemic patients. The consequent low leptin levels might be a cofactor in the derangement of pubertal timing observed in thalassaemic patients at puberty which necessitates newer protocols of treatment, correct blood transfusion and chelation therapy.

Peer and Individual Risk Factors in Adolescence Explaining the Relationship between Girls' Pubertal Timing and Teenage Childbearing

Science.gov (United States)

Hendrick, C. Emily; Cance, Jessica Duncan; Maslowsky, Julie

2016-01-01

Girls with early pubertal timing are at elevated risk for teenage childbearing; however, the modifiable mechanisms driving this relationship are not well understood. The objective of the current study was to determine whether substance use, perceived peer substance use, and older first sexual partners mediate the relationships among girls' pubertal timing, sexual debut, and teenage childbearing. Data are from Waves 1 – 15 of the female cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), a nationwide, ongoing cohort study of U.S. men and women born between 1980 and 1984. The analytic sample (N=2,066) was 12-14 years old in 1997 and ethnically diverse (51% white, 27% black, 22% Latina). Using structural equation modeling, we found substance use in early adolescence and perceived peer substance use each partially mediated the relationships among girls' pubertal timing, sexual debut, and teenage childbearing. Our findings suggest early substance use behavior as one modifiable mechanism to be targeted by interventions aimed at preventing teenage childbearing among early developing girls. PMID:26769576

A Twin Study of Objective and Subjective Pubertal Timing and Peer Influence on Risk-Taking.

Science.gov (United States)

Kretsch, Natalie; Mendle, Jane; Harden, K Paige

2016-03-01

The current study used a behavioral genetic design to test whether three measures of pubertal timing moderated peer influence on risk-taking in a sample of 248 female adolescent twin pairs ( M age =16.0, SD =1.5) from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Peer influence was operationalized as the quasi-causal association between girls' self-reported risk-taking and the risk-taking reported by their friends. Girls with earlier ages at menarche and who perceived themselves as more developed than peers were more susceptible to peer influence on risk-taking. However, age-standardized ratings of body changes did not moderate peer influence. This study highlights distinctions between multiple measures of pubertal timing, using an innovative synthesis of genetically informative data and peer nomination data.

Pubertal breast development in primary school girls in Sokoto, North ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background. There is wide variation in normal pubertal timing among various populations. Objectives. To determine the mean age of pubertal stages of breast development and menarche, and the influence of nutrition and ethnicity on pubertal onset in primary school girls in Sokoto, North-Western Nigeria. Methods.

The effect of tamoxifen on pubertal bone development in adolescents with pubertal gynecomastia.

Science.gov (United States)

Akgül, Sinem; Derman, Orhan; Kanbur, Nuray

2016-01-01

During puberty, estrogen has a biphasic effect on epiphyses; at low levels, it leads to an increase in height and bone mass, whereas at high levels, it leads to closure of the epiphysis. Tamoxifen is a selective estrogen receptor modulator that has been used in the treatment of pubertal gynecomastia. Although it has not been approved for this indication, studies have shown it to be both successful and safe. In males, the peak of pubertal bone development occurs during Tanner stage 3-4, which is also when pubertal gynecomastia reaches its highest prevalence. Thus tamoxifen treatment could potentially effect pubertal bone development. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of tamoxifen on bone mineral density (BMD) and skeletal maturation when used for pubertal gynecomastia. We evaluated 20 boys with pubertal gynecomastia receiving tamoxifen for at least 4 months. BMD was measured with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Z-score and absolute BMD (g/cm(2)) was determined at baseline and 2 months after completing tamoxifen treatment. Bone age and height was evaluated before treatment and again one year later. Using absolute BMD (g/cm(2)), the mean difference from baseline was significant between the two groups both at spine (p=0.002) and femur (p=0.001), but not with the Z-score. This result was attributed to the expected increase during puberty according to sex and age. No significant effect on skeletal maturation was found (p=1.112). We conclude that when pubertal bone development is concerned, tamoxifen is safe for the treatment of pubertal gynecomastia as neither bone mineralization nor growth potential was affected.

Early pubertal onset and its relationship with sexual risk taking, substance use and anti-social behaviour: a preliminary cross-sectional study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bellis Mark A

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In many countries age at pubertal onset has declined substantially. Relatively little attention has been paid to how this decline may affect adolescent behaviours such as substance use, violence and unprotected sex and consequently impact on public health. Methods In the UK, two opportunistic samples (aged 16-45 years, paper-based (n = 976 and online (n = 1117, examined factors associated with earlier pubertal onset and whether earlier age of onset predicted sexual risk-taking, substance use and anti-social behaviours during early adolescence. Results Overall, 45.6% of females reported menarche ≤ 12 years and 53.3% of males were categorised as having pubertal onset ≤ 11 years. For both sexes earlier pubertal onset was associated with poorer parental socio-economic status. Other pre-pubertal predictors of early onset were being overweight, more childhood illnesses (females and younger age at time of survey (males. For both sexes earlier puberty predicted having drunk alcohol, been drunk, smoked and used drugs Conclusion Results provide sufficient evidence for changes in age of pubertal onset to be further explored as a potential influence on trends in adolescent risk behaviours. Further insight into the relationship between early puberty and both obesity and socio-economic status may help inform early interventions to tackle the development of risk behaviours and health inequalities during early adolescence.

Genome-wide association and longitudinal analyses reveal genetic loci linking pubertal height growth, pubertal timing and childhood adiposity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cousminer, Diana L.; Berry, Diane J.; Timpson, Nicholas J.; Ang, Wei; Thiering, Elisabeth; Byrne, Enda M.; Taal, H. Rob; Huikari, Ville; Bradfield, Jonathan P.; Kerkhof, Marjan; Groen-Blokhuis, Maria M.; Kreiner-Moller, Eskil; Marinelli, Marcella; Holst, Claus; Leinonen, Jaakko T.; Perry, John R. B.; Surakka, Ida; Pietilainen, Olli; Kettunen, Johannes; Anttila, Verneri; Kaakinen, Marika; Sovio, Ulla; Pouta, Anneli; Das, Shikta; Lagou, Vasiliki; Power, Chris; Prokopenko, Inga; Evans, David M.; Kemp, John P.; St Pourcain, Beate; Ring, Susan; Palotie, Aarno; Kajantie, Eero; Osmond, Clive; Lehtimaki, Terho; Viikari, Jorma S.; Kahonen, Mika; Warrington, Nicole M.; Lye, Stephen J.; Palmer, Lyle J.; Tiesler, Carla M. T.; Flexeder, Claudia; Montgomery, Grant W.; Medland, Sarah E.; Hofman, Albert; Hakonarson, Hakon; Guxens, Monica; Bartels, Meike; Salomaa, Veikko; Koppelman, Gerard H.

2013-01-01

The pubertal height growth spurt is a distinctive feature of childhood growth reflecting both the central onset of puberty and local growth factors. Although little is known about the underlying genetics, growth variability during puberty correlates with adult risks for hormone-dependent cancer and

Exposure to peer delinquency as a mediator between self-report pubertal timing and delinquency: A longitudinal study of mediation

Science.gov (United States)

Negriff, Sonya; Ji, Juye; Trickett, Penelope K.

2013-01-01

This study examined exposure to peer delinquency as a mediator between pubertal timing and self-reported delinquency longitudinally and whether this mediational model was moderated by either gender or maltreatment experience. Data were obtained from Time 1, 2, and 3 of a longitudinal study of maltreatment and development. At Time 1 the sample comprised 454 children aged 9–13 years. Analyses via structural equation modeling supported full mediation. Gender did not moderate this mediational relationship, but maltreatment experience did. The results show that early maturing males and females are both at risk for being exposed to peers that may draw them into delinquent behavior. Additionally, the mechanism linking early pubertal timing to delinquency differs depending on maltreatment experience. PMID:21262055

Sex 'n' drugs 'n' rock 'n' roll: the meaning and social consequences of pubertal timing.

Science.gov (United States)

Waylen, Andrea; Wolke, Dieter

2004-11-01

This is a brief review of the normal changes in adolescent behaviour and the interplay between biology and social factors that occur at and around puberty, in an attempt to explain when this transition may become problematic The onset of puberty is a biological marker for an individual's transition from a non-reproductive to a reproductive state. Adolescence is a normal developmental transition associated with clearly visible physical changes, reorganization and pruning of neuronal circuits in the brain and the occurrence of new behaviours and interests. It is a time when new life tasks (orientation towards peers of the other sex, romantic and sexual involvement and mastering an educational career) need to be mastered. Parent-child conflict increases and becomes more intense as the adolescent struggles for more independence while still requiring support. These normal changes can become problematic if biological and social expectations diverge e.g. entering puberty very early or very late. While early pubertal onset in boys is likely to have beneficial effects, in girls precocious pubertal timing may have a negative impact on body-image, affect (or emotional well-being) and sex-role expectations. Other individual biological predispositions and genetic endowment may interact with social factors (e.g. peers, parenting style, neighbourhood) making adolescence either an adaptive or a challenging transition. There is a lack of sufficiently large longitudinal studies that have been able to study this interaction between genetics, biology and social environment on adolescent development. The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort provides a unique opportunity to investigate the impact of pubertal timing on social behaviour. Planned assessments and concepts are outlined.

Peer substance use as a mediator between early pubertal timing and adolescent substance use: longitudinal associations and moderating effect of maltreatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Negriff, Sonya; Trickett, Penelope K

2012-11-01

Early pubertal timing has received considerable empirical support as a risk for adolescent substance use. However, few studies have examined the mediators linking these variables. Therefore, the aims of this study were (1) to examine peer substance use as a mediator between pubertal timing and adolescent substance use longitudinally and (2) to test gender and maltreatment experience as moderators of the mediational model. Data were obtained from time 1, 2, and 3 of a longitudinal study of maltreatment and development. At time 1 the sample was comprised of 303 maltreated and 151 comparison children aged 9-13 years (213 females and 241 males). Longitudinal mediation was tested using structural equation modeling and moderating effects were tested using multiple group analysis. Peer substance use mediated the relationship between early pubertal timing and later adolescent substance use for the total sample. Moderation analyses indicated this significant indirect effect did not differ for males and females. However, it did differ for maltreated versus comparison adolescents with the mediational effect only remaining significant for the comparison group. This is one of the first studies to examine peer substance use as a mediator of pubertal timing and adolescent substance use using a longitudinal design. Early maturing males are at equal risk to early maturing females for interacting with peers that may draw them into substance use. Additionally, the findings indicate that while peers are mediators for comparison adolescents a different mechanism may link early puberty to substance use for maltreated adolescents. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index and pubertal development among sons

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hounsgaard, M L; Håkonsen, L B; Vested, A

2014-01-01

Maternal overweight and obesity in pregnancy has been associated with earlier age of menarche in daughters as well as reduced semen quality in sons. We aimed at investigating pubertal development in sons born by mothers with a high body mass index (BMI). The study included 2522 sons of mothers...... indicators of pubertal development, results also indicated earlier pubertal development among sons of obese mothers. After excluding sons of underweight mothers in a subanalysis, we observed an inverse trend between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and age at regular shaving, acne and first nocturnal emission....... In conclusion, maternal pre-pregnant obesity may be related to earlier timing of pubertal milestones among sons. More research, preferably based on prospectively collected information about pubertal development, is needed to draw firm conclusions....

Early adolescent boys’ exposure to Internet pornography: relationships to pubertal timing, sensation seeking, and academic performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beyens, I.; Vandenbosch, L.; Eggermont, S.

2015-01-01

Research has demonstrated that adolescents regularly use Internet pornography. This two-wave panel study aimed to test an integrative model in early adolescent boys (Mage = 14.10; N = 325) that (a) explains their exposure to Internet pornography by looking at relationships with pubertal timing and

Pubertal Timing and Mexican-Origin Girls' Internalizing and Externalizing Symptoms: The Influence of Harsh Parenting

Science.gov (United States)

Deardorff, Julianna; Cham, Heining; Gonzales, Nancy A.; White, Rebecca M. B.; Tein, Jenn-Yun; Wong, Jessie J.; Roosa, Mark W.

2013-01-01

Early-maturing girls are at risk for internalizing and externalizing problems. Research concerning pubertal timing and mental health among Mexican Americans or the influence of parenting behaviors on these relations has been scarce. This study addressed these gaps. This was a prospective examination of 362 Mexican-origin girls and their mothers in…

Recent changes in pubertal timing in healthy Danish boys: associations with body mass index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Kaspar; Aksglaede, Lise; Petersen, Jørgen Holm

2010-01-01

In the 1990s, the American population-based study NHANES III renewed the focus on possible secular trends in male puberty. However, no conclusions could be made on pubertal onset due to the lack of compatible data.......In the 1990s, the American population-based study NHANES III renewed the focus on possible secular trends in male puberty. However, no conclusions could be made on pubertal onset due to the lack of compatible data....

Exciting fear in adolescence: Does pubertal development alter threat processing?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey M. Spielberg

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Adolescent development encompasses an ostensible paradox in threat processing. Risk taking increases dramatically after the onset of puberty, contributing to a 200% increase in mortality. Yet, pubertal maturation is associated with increased reactivity in threat-avoidance systems. In the first part of this paper we propose a heuristic model of adolescent affective development that may help to reconcile aspects of this paradox, which focuses on hypothesized pubertal increases in the capacity to experience (some fear-evoking experiences as an exciting thrill. In the second part of this paper, we test key features of this model by examining brain activation to threat cues in a longitudinal study that disentangled pubertal and age effects. Pubertal increases in testosterone predicted increased activation to threat cues, not only in regions associated with threat avoidance (i.e., amygdala, but also regions associated with reward pursuit (i.e., nucleus accumbens. These findings are consistent with our hypothesis that puberty is associated with a maturational shift toward more complex processing of threat cues—which may contribute to adolescent tendencies to explore and enjoy some types of risky experiences.

Exciting fear in adolescence: does pubertal development alter threat processing?

Science.gov (United States)

Spielberg, Jeffrey M; Olino, Thomas M; Forbes, Erika E; Dahl, Ronald E

2014-04-01

Adolescent development encompasses an ostensible paradox in threat processing. Risk taking increases dramatically after the onset of puberty, contributing to a 200% increase in mortality. Yet, pubertal maturation is associated with increased reactivity in threat-avoidance systems. In the first part of this paper we propose a heuristic model of adolescent affective development that may help to reconcile aspects of this paradox, which focuses on hypothesized pubertal increases in the capacity to experience (some) fear-evoking experiences as an exciting thrill. In the second part of this paper, we test key features of this model by examining brain activation to threat cues in a longitudinal study that disentangled pubertal and age effects. Pubertal increases in testosterone predicted increased activation to threat cues, not only in regions associated with threat avoidance (i.e., amygdala), but also regions associated with reward pursuit (i.e., nucleus accumbens). These findings are consistent with our hypothesis that puberty is associated with a maturational shift toward more complex processing of threat cues--which may contribute to adolescent tendencies to explore and enjoy some types of risky experiences. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

[Pubertal growth of 1,453 healthy children according to age at pubertal growth spurt onset. The Barcelona longitudinal growth study].

Science.gov (United States)

Carrascosa, Antonio; Yeste, Diego; Moreno-Galdó, Antonio; Gussinyé, Miquel; Ferrández, Ángel; Clemente, María; Fernández-Cancio, Mónica

2018-02-20

Pubertal growth pattern differs according to age at pubertal growth spurt onset which occurs over a five years period (girls: 8-13 years, boys: 10-15 years). The need for more than one pubertal reference pattern has been proposed. We aimed to obtain five 1-year-age-interval pubertal patterns. Longitudinal (6 years of age-adult height) growth study of 1,453 healthy children to evaluate height-for-age, growth velocity-for-age and weight-for-age values. According to age at pubertal growth spurt onset girls were considered: very-early matures (8-9 years, n=119), early matures (9-10 years, n=157), intermediate matures (10-11 years, n=238), late matures (11-12 years, n=127) and very-late matures (12-13 years, n=102), and boys: very-early matures (10-11 years, n=110), early matures (11-12 years, n=139), intermediate matures (12-13 years, n=225), late matures (13-14 years, n=133) and very-late matures (14-15 years, n=103). Age at menarche and growth up to adult height were recorded. In both sexes, statistically-significant (P<.0001) and clinically-pertinent differences in pubertal growth pattern (mean height-for-age, mean growth velocity-for-age and mean pubertal height gain, values) were found among the five pubertal maturity groups and between each group and the whole population, despite similar adult height values. The same occurred for age at menarche and growth from menarche to adult height (P<.05). In both sexes, pubertal growth spurt onset is a critical milestone determining pubertal growth and sexual development. The contribution of our data to better clinical evaluation of growth according to the pubertal maturity tempo of each child will obviate the mistakes made when only one pubertal growth reference is used. Copyright © 2018. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

Early Adolescent Boys' Exposure to Internet Pornography: Relationships to Pubertal Timing, Sensation Seeking, and Academic Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Beyens, Ine; Vandenbosch, Laura; Eggermont, Steven

2015-01-01

Research has demonstrated that adolescents regularly use Internet pornography. This two-wave panel study aimed to test an integrative model in early adolescent boys (M[subscript age] = 14.10; N = 325) that (a) explains their exposure to Internet pornography by looking at relationships with pubertal timing and sensation seeking, and (b) explores…

Subjective Age in Early Adolescence: Relationships with Chronological Age, Pubertal Timing, Desired Age, and Problem Behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Hubley, Anita M.; Arim, Rubab G.

2012-01-01

Subjective age generally refers to the age that one feels. In a cross-sectional questionnaire study of 245 adolescents ages 10-14 years, we examined (a) whether, and when, a cross-over in subjective age occurs, (b) differences in subjective age among pubertal timing groups, (c) correlations between subjective age and each of desired age and five…

Validity of self-assessment of pubertal maturation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Anna; Wohlfahrt-Veje, Christine; Tefre de Renzy-Martin, Katrine

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Studies of adolescents often use self-assessment of pubertal maturation, the reliability of which has shown conflicting results. We aimed to examine the reliability of child and parent assessments of healthy boys and girls. METHODS: A total of 898 children (418 girls, 480...... overestimated older than their peers who made correct assessments. Girls and their parents tended to underestimate, whereas boys overestimated their pubertal stage. CONCLUSIONS: Pubertal assessment by the child or the parents is not a reliable measure of exact pubertal staging and should be augmented...

Pubertal development in ICSI children

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Belva, F.; Roelants, M.; Painter, R.; Bonduelle, M.; Devroey, P.; de Schepper, J.

2012-01-01

To date, information on the pubertal development of adolescents born after ICSI is scarce, since the very first cohort is only now reaching young adulthood. In this study, pubertal development at the age of 14 was characterized in a longitudinally followed cohort of ICSI-conceived teenagers and

The duration of pubertal growth peak among three skeletal classes

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Waqar Jeelani

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Introduction: Pubertal growth peak is closely associated with a rapid increase in mandibular length and offers a wide range of therapeutic modifiability. Objective: The aim of the present study was to determine and compare the mean ages of onset and duration of pubertal growth peak among three skeletal classes. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted using lateral cephalograms of 230 subjects with growth potential (110 males, 120 females. Subjects were categorized into three classes (Class I = 81, Class II = 82, Class III = 67, according to the sagittal relationship established between the maxilla and the mandible. The cervical vertebral maturation stage was recorded by means of Baccetti's method. The mean ages at CS3 and CS4 and the CS3-CS4 age interval were compared between boys and girls and among three skeletal classes. Results: Pubertal growth peak occurred on average four months earlier in girls than boys (p = 0.050. The average duration of pubertal growth peak was 11 months in Class I, seven months in Class II and 17 months in Class III subjects. Interclass differences were highly significant (Cohen's d > 0.08. However, no significant difference was found in the timing of pubertal growth peak onset among three skeletal classes (p = 0.126 in boys, p = 0.262 in girls. Conclusions: Girls enter pubertal growth peak on average four months earlier than boys. Moreover, the duration of pubertal growth peak is on average four months shorter in Class II and six months longer in Class III subjects as compared to Class I subjects.

Pubertal development in Danish children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juul, A; Teilmann, G; Scheike, Thomas Harder

2006-01-01

.0012). In Danish boys we found that age at genital stage 2 (G2) was 11.83 years. Both sexes were significantly taller compared with data from 1964, but timing of pubertal maturation seemed unaltered. Finally, puberty occurred much later in Denmark compared with recent data from USA. We could not detect any...

Nutrition and pubertal development

OpenAIRE

Soliman, Ashraf; De Sanctis, Vincenzo; Elalaily, Rania

2014-01-01

Nutrition is one of the most important factors affecting pubertal development. Puberty entails a progressive nonlinear process starting from prepubescent to full sexual maturity through the interaction and cooperation of biological, physical, and psychological changes. Consuming an adequate and balanced healthy diet during all phases of growth (infancy, childhood and puberty) appears necessary both for proper growth and normal pubertal development. Girls begin puberty at an earlier age compar...

Pubertal development in healthy children is mirrored by DNA methylation patterns in peripheral blood

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Almstrup, Kristian; Johansen, Marie Lindhardt; Busch, Alexander S.

2016-01-01

Puberty marks numerous physiological processes which are initiated by central activation of the hypothalamic–pituitary–gonadal axis, followed by development of secondary sexual characteristics. To a large extent, pubertal timing is heritable, but current knowledge of genetic polymorphismsonly...... explains few months in the large inter-individual variation in the timing of puberty. We have analysed longitudinal genome-wide changes in DNA methylation in peripheral blood samples (n = 102) obtained from 51 healthy children before and after pubertal onset. We show that changes in single methylation...... sites are tightly associated with physiological pubertal transition and altered reproductive hormone levels. These methylation sites cluster in and around genes enriched for biological functions related to pubertal development. Importantly, we identified that methylation of the genomic region containing...

Maths performance as a function of sex, laterality, and age of pubertal onset.

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Sappington, John; Topolski, Richard

2005-07-01

Sex differences in math/spatial performance demand explanations. Within the biological view, the complexity and number of variables make the explanation difficult at best. Laterality and age of pubertal onset have been investigated prominently in this context but rarely considered as interactions in the same study. Some 468 college subjects with SAT MATH (SAT M) scores were divided into 12 groups defined by sex, laterality, and age (early, middle, and late) of pubertal onset. Significant main effects for sex and age of onset emerged, as did an interaction between lateral preference and pubertal onset. Generally males outperformed females. The combination of maleness, sinistrality, and early maturation was associated with high SAT M scores. Sinistrality and late maturation among females predicted very poor math performance.

Transitions in body and behavior: a meta-analytic study on the relationship between pubertal development and adolescent sexual behavior.

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Baams, Laura; Dubas, Judith Semon; Overbeek, Geertjan; van Aken, Marcel A G

2015-06-01

The present meta-analysis studies the relations of pubertal timing and status with sexual behavior and sexual risk behavior among youth aged 10.5-22.4 years. We included biological sex, age, and ethnicity as potential moderators. Four databases were searched for studies (published between 1980 and 2012) on the relation between pubertal timing or status and sexual behavior. The outcomes were (1) sexual intercourse; (2) combined sexual behavior; and (3) risky sexual behavior. Earlier pubertal timing or more advanced pubertal status was related to earlier and more sexual behavior, and earlier pubertal timing was related to more risky sexual behavior. Further, the links between (1) pubertal status and combined sexual behavior and (2) pubertal timing and sexual intercourse status, combined sexual behavior, and risky sexual behavior were stronger for girls than boys. Most links between pubertal status, timing, and sexual behavior and sexual risk behavior were stronger for younger adolescents. Moderation by ethnicity did not yield consistent results. There was significant variation in results among studies that was not fully explained by differences in biological sex, age, and ethnicity. Future research is needed to identify moderators that explain the variation in effects and to design sexual health interventions for young adolescents. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pubertal changes in emotional information processing: pupillary, behavioral, and subjective evidence during emotional word identification.

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Silk, Jennifer S; Siegle, Greg J; Whalen, Diana J; Ostapenko, Laura J; Ladouceur, Cecile D; Dahl, Ronald E

2009-01-01

This study investigated pupillary and behavioral responses to an emotional word valence identification paradigm among 32 pre-/early pubertal and 34 mid-/late pubertal typically developing children and adolescents. Participants were asked to identify the valence of positive, negative, and neutral words while pupil dilation was assessed using an eyetracker. Mid-/late pubertal children showed greater peak pupillary reactivity to words presented during the emotional word identification task than pre-/early pubertal children, regardless of word valence. Mid-/late pubertal children also showed smaller sustained pupil dilation than pre-/early pubertal children after the word was no longer on screen. These findings were replicated controlling for participants' age. In addition, mid-/late pubertal children had faster reaction times to all words, and rated themselves as more emotional during their laboratory visit compared to pre-/early pubertal children. Greater recall of emotional words following the task was associated with mid-/late pubertal status, and greater recall of emotional words was also associated with higher peak pupil dilation. These results provide physiological, behavioral, and subjective evidence consistent with a model of puberty-specific changes in neurobehavioral systems underpinning emotional reactivity.

Nutrition and pubertal development

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Ashraf Soliman

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Nutrition is one of the most important factors affecting pubertal development. Puberty entails a progressive nonlinear process starting from prepubescent to full sexual maturity through the interaction and cooperation of biological, physical, and psychological changes. Consuming an adequate and balanced healthy diet during all phases of growth (infancy, childhood and puberty appears necessary both for proper growth and normal pubertal development. Girls begin puberty at an earlier age compared to past decades. Excessive eating of many processed, high-fat foods, may be the cause of this phenomenon. Overweight or obese children are more likely to enter puberty early. Some evidence suggests that obesity can accelerate the onset of puberty in girls and may delay the onset of puberty in boys. Moreover, the progression of puberty is affected by nutrition. On the other hand, puberty triggers a growth spurt, which increases nutritional needs including macro and micronutrients. Increased caloric, protein, iron, calcium, zinc and folate needs have to be provided during this critical period of rapid growth. Severe primary or secondary malnutrition also can delay the onset and progression of puberty. The higher incidence of anorexia nervosa and bulimia in adolescents imposes a nutritional risk on pubertal development. Moreover, many environmental endocrine disruptors (EDs have been identified that can significantly impair the normal course of puberty. This mini-review sums up some important findings in this important complex that link nutrition and pubertal development.

Forty years trends in timing of pubertal growth spurt in 157,000 Danish school children

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Aksglæde, Lise; Olsen, Lina Wøhlk; Sørensen, Thorkild I.A.

2008-01-01

to 1969 who attended primary school in the Copenhagen Municipality. 135,223 girls and 21,612 boys fulfilled the criteria for determining age at OGS and age at PHV. These physiological events were used as markers of pubertal development in our computerized method in order to evaluate any secular trends...... in pubertal maturation during the study period (year of birth 1930 to 1969). In this period, age at OGS declined statistically significantly by 0.2 and 0.4 years in girls and boys, respectively, whereas age at PHV declined statistically significantly by 0.5 and 0.3 years in girls and boys, respectively...

Brief communication: a proposed osteological method for the estimation of pubertal stage in human skeletal remains.

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Shapland, Fiona; Lewis, Mary E

2013-06-01

Puberty forms an important threshold between childhood and adulthood, but this subject has received little attention in bioarchaeology. The new application of clinical methods to assess pubertal stage in adolescent skeletal remains is explored, concentrating on the development of the mandibular canine, hamate, hand phalanges, iliac crest and distal radius. Initial results from the medieval cemetery of St. Peter's Church, Barton-upon-Humber, England suggest that application of these methods may provide insights into aspects of adolescent development. This analysis indicates that adolescents from this medieval site were entering the pubertal growth spurt at a similar age to their modern counterparts, but that the later stages of pubertal maturation were being significantly delayed, perhaps due to environmental stress. Continued testing and refinement of these methods on living adolescents is still necessary to improve our understanding of their significance and accuracy in predicting pubertal stages. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Reproductive ability of pubertal male and female rats

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T. Zemunik

2003-07-01

Full Text Available Ten Fisher rats 50 to 55 days of age made up the pubertal group, and ten rats 90 to 95 days of age served as the controls. The testicular and epididymal weights and volumes of the pubertal males were lower than those of the controls (P0.05. At the beginning of gestation, the pubertal dams weighed less than the controls (P<0.001 but following uterectomy the body weights were equal. Pubertal dams delivered fewer pups than the controls (8.1 ± 2.5 vs 10.4 ± 1.3, P<0.05. There was no difference in the body weights of their offspring or in the weights of their placentas. The results suggest that, in contrast to their female counterparts, pubertal male rats are not fully mature and have not reached complete reproductive capacity at 50-55 days of age.

Pubertal development in Danish children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juul, A; Teilmann, G; Scheike, Thomas Harder

2006-01-01

differences between USA and Denmark, as well as to look for possible secular trends in pubertal development. Healthy Caucasian children from public schools in Denmark participated in the study which was carried out in 1991-1993. A total number of 826 boys and 1,100 girls (aged 6.0-19.9 years) were included......, and pubertal stages were assessed by clinical examination according to methods of Tanner. In boys testicular volume was determined using an orchidometer. We found that age at breast development 2 (B2) was 10.88 years, and mean menarcheal age was 13.42 years. Girls with body mass index (BMI) above the median...... genetic polymorphisms, nutrition, physical activity or endocrine disrupting chemicals must therefore also be considered. Therefore, we believe it is crucial to monitor the pubertal development closely in Denmark in the coming decades....

The Moderating Effects of Pubertal Timing on the Longitudinal Associations between Parent-Child Relationship Quality and Adolescent Substance Use

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Shelton, Katherine H.; Van Den Bree, Marianne B. M.

2010-01-01

This prospective, longitudinal study investigated the moderating role of pubertal timing on reciprocal links between adolescent appraisals of parent-child relationship quality and girls' (N = 1,335) and boys' (N = 1,203) cigarette and alcohol use across a 12-month period. Reciprocal effects were found between parent-child relations and on-time…

Pubertal development in The Netherlands 1965-1997

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D. Mul (Dick); A.M. Fredriks; S. van Buuren (Stef); W. Oostdijk (Wilma); S.P. Verloove-Vanhorick; J.M. Wit (Jan)

2001-01-01

textabstractWe investigated pubertal development of 4019 boys and 3562 girls >8 y of age participating in a cross-sectional survey in The Netherlands and compared the results with those of two previous surveys. Reference curves for all pubertal stages were constructed. The 50th

Urinary phthalate excretion in 555 healthy Danish boys with and without pubertal gynaecomastia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mieritz, Mikkel G; Frederiksen, Hanne; Sørensen, Kaspar

2012-01-01

Pubertal gynaecomastia is a clinical sign of an oestrogen-androgen imbalance, which occurs in 40-60% of adolescent Caucasian boys. In most cases no underlying endocrinopathy can be identified. A recent study reports higher plasma phthalate levels in Turkish boys with pubertal gynaecomastia....... Therefore, we asked whether there was an association between concurrent measures of urinary phthalate metabolites and pubertal timing as well as the presence of gynaecomastia in otherwise healthy boys. We studied a total of 555 healthy boys (age 6.07-19.83 years) as part of the COPENHAGEN Puberty Study....... Anthropometry and pubertal stages (PH1-6 and G1-5) were evaluated, and the presence of gynaecomastia was assessed. Non-fasting blood samples were analysed for serum testosterone and morning urine samples were analysed for the total content of 12 phthalate metabolites (MEP, MnBP, MiBP, MBzP, MEHP, MEHHP, MEOHP...

Granular Vulvovaginitis Syndrome in Nelore pubertal and post pubertal replacement heifers under tropical conditions: role of Mycoplasma spp., Ureaplasma diversum and BHV-1.

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Gambarini, M L; Kunz, T L; Oliveira Filho, B D; Porto, R N G; Oliveira, C M G; Brito, W M E D; Viu, M A O

2009-10-01

In order to determine the role of Mycoplasma spp, Ureaplasma diversum and BHV-1 as causal agents of Granular Vulvovaginitis Syndrome in Nelore heifers raised under tropical conditions and based on the hypothesis that stressful conditions during puberty or breeding season would be a determinant factor for the infection, 340 heifers not vaccinated against BHV-1 were divided in Post-pubertal, in the beginning of the first breeding season, and Pubertal heifers. The vaginal lesion score (VLS) Grade 1 to 4 was giving according to lesion area and severity. Vaginal mucus was used to isolate Mycoplasma spp., Ureaplasma diversum and BHV-1. The predominant VLS was 2. No sample was positive for BHV-1; 48% were positive for Mycoplasma spp., Ureaplasma diversum, or both, with predominance of Ureaplasma diversum. Serum neutralization for BHV-1 showed more positive animals in pubertal group (23%); 3 of the paired sera demonstrated seroconversion. These data indicated that post-pubertal and pubertal Nelore heifers raised under extensive conditions are more susceptible to Mycoplasma spp. and Ureaplasma diversum. The hypothesis that the stress of pubertal period could lead to an acute vaginal infection by HBV-1 was not proofed.

Depressive symptoms among Hong Kong adolescents: relation to atypical sexual feelings and behaviors, gender dissatisfaction, pubertal timing, and family and peer relationships.

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Lam, T H; Stewart, Sunita M; Leung, Gabriel M; Lee, Peter W H; Wong, Joy P S; Ho, L M; Youth Sexuality Task Force

2004-10-01

A representative community sample of Hong Kong boys (n = 1,024) and girls (n = 1,403), age 14-18 years, provided information regarding same-sex attraction, gender dissatisfaction, pubertal timing, early experience with sexual intercourse, and depressive symptoms. They also rated the quality of their family and peer relationships and self-perceived attractiveness. Depressive symptoms were higher in youths reporting same-sex attraction, gender dissatisfaction, early pubertal maturation, and early sexual intercourse. Family relationships were less satisfactory for those who reported same-sex attraction, gender dissatisfaction, and early sexual intercourse, and peer relationships were also worse for those who reported gender dissatisfaction. In multivariate analyses, same-sex attraction, early sexual intercourse, and early pubertal maturation were unique and direct contributors to depressive symptoms; however, gender dissatisfaction's association with depressive symptoms was largely accounted for by shared correlations with negative family and peer relationships. The multivariate model explained 11% of the variance of depressive symptoms. These findings offer a preliminary documentation of the prevalence and correlates of atypical sexual self-assessments and behavior among adolescents in Hong Kong. Such information is important if theories of sexual identity and risk factors for depressive symptoms are to have cross-cultural utility. Copyright 2004 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.

Longitudinal impacts of pubertal timing and weight status on adolescent Internet use: Analysis from a cohort study of Taiwanese youths.

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Meng-Che Tsai

Full Text Available To investigate the longitudinal impacts of pubertal timing and weight status on Internet use in adolescents.Three waves of data on a longitudinal cohort of 7th grade students (N = 2430 were retrieved from the Taiwan Youth Project. Univariate and multivariate regression models were applied using crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR with 95% confidence intervals (CI to examine the concomitant impacts of pubertal timing and weight status on adolescent Internet use.The dataset identified 210 (8.7% students using the Internet for more than 20 hours/week, and 81 (3.3% were viewing pornographic material online. Early maturing and thin-weight adolescents were at 35% and 46% increased risks of spending long hours on Internet use, respectively. While early puberty was associated with online pornography viewing among males (adjusted OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.04-3.28, early puberty was contrarily a protective factor against online gaming in females (adjusted OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36-0.96.Early puberty was found to be positively related to adolescent Internet use. Appropriate health education and guidance regarding Internet use should be provided to those with different developing needs.

Longitudinal impacts of pubertal timing and weight status on adolescent Internet use: Analysis from a cohort study of Taiwanese youths.

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Tsai, Meng-Che; Strong, Carol; Chen, Wan-Ting; Lee, Chih-Ting; Lin, Chung-Ying

2018-01-01

To investigate the longitudinal impacts of pubertal timing and weight status on Internet use in adolescents. Three waves of data on a longitudinal cohort of 7th grade students (N = 2430) were retrieved from the Taiwan Youth Project. Univariate and multivariate regression models were applied using crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to examine the concomitant impacts of pubertal timing and weight status on adolescent Internet use. The dataset identified 210 (8.7%) students using the Internet for more than 20 hours/week, and 81 (3.3%) were viewing pornographic material online. Early maturing and thin-weight adolescents were at 35% and 46% increased risks of spending long hours on Internet use, respectively. While early puberty was associated with online pornography viewing among males (adjusted OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.04-3.28), early puberty was contrarily a protective factor against online gaming in females (adjusted OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36-0.96). Early puberty was found to be positively related to adolescent Internet use. Appropriate health education and guidance regarding Internet use should be provided to those with different developing needs.

Pubertal status, interaction with significant others, and self-esteem of adolescent girls.

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Lacković-Grgin, K; Dekovíc, M; Opacić, G

1994-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between pubertal status, the quality of interactions with significant others, and the self-esteem of adolescent girls. The model which was tested, hypothesized that pubertal status affects self-esteem through girls' interactions with their parents and friends. Pubertal status was operationalized as the number of months between occurrence of the first menstrual periods and time of the investigation. The measure of self-esteem was the shortened form of the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory. Analyses revealed that girls who begun menstruating six months before the investigation obtained higher scores on the measure of self-esteem than did girls who had been menstruating 13 months or more. The best predictor of self-esteem, however, was the quality of interaction with their mothers. The results support the theoretical view that stresses the importance of interaction with significant others for the development of self-esteem.

Pubertal testosterone influences threat-related amygdala-orbitofrontal cortex coupling.

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Spielberg, Jeffrey M; Forbes, Erika E; Ladouceur, Cecile D; Worthman, Carol M; Olino, Thomas M; Ryan, Neal D; Dahl, Ronald E

2015-03-01

Growing evidence indicates that normative pubertal maturation is associated with increased threat reactivity, and this developmental shift has been implicated in the increased rates of adolescent affective disorders. However, the neural mechanisms involved in this pubertal increase in threat reactivity remain unknown. Research in adults indicates that testosterone transiently decreases amygdala-orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) coupling. Consequently, we hypothesized that increased pubertal testosterone disrupts amygdala-OFC coupling, which may contribute to developmental increases in threat reactivity in some adolescents. Hypotheses were tested in a longitudinal study by examining the impact of testosterone on functional connectivity. Findings were consistent with hypotheses and advance our understanding of normative pubertal changes in neural systems instantiating affect/motivation. Finally, potential novel insights into the neurodevelopmental pathways that may contribute to adolescent vulnerability to behavioral and emotional problems are discussed. © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Longitudinal Effects of Self-Report Pubertal Timing and Menarcheal Age on Adolescent Psychological and Behavioral Outcomes in Female Youths from Northern Taiwan.

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Lee, Chih-Ting; Tsai, Meng-Che; Lin, Chung-Ying; Strong, Carol

2017-08-01

Early puberty is linked to adverse developmental outcomes in adolescents in Western societies. However, little is known about this relationship in an East Asian context. In addition, whether the impact of subjective pubertal timing (PT) and menarcheal age (MA) on adolescent psychosocial development persists into early adulthood remains unclear and is worthy of investigation. A subset of data was retrieved from the Taiwan Youth Project, which recruited and followed a longitudinal cohort of 7 th - and 9 th -grade female Taiwanese students from 2000 to 2007. Subjective PT was defined using the Pubertal Developmental Scale (PDS), which mainly measures pubertal changes. MA was recalled by participants themselves. Various psychological and behavioral factors were recorded and measured until the age of 20, including the use of alcohol and cigarettes, psychological well-being, sexual activity, and socially problematic behaviors. A χ 2 test for linear-by-linear association and one-way analysis of variance followed by multivariate regression models were used to dissect the differential effects of PT and MA in the association with the outcome variables. In total, 1545 female participants with an average age of 14.5 (±1.1) years were deemed valid for analysis. Among them, 257 (16.6%) participants perceived themselves as having early PT, defined as more than 1 standard deviation above the mean PDS score, and 82 (5.3%) had early MA (occurring before the 4 th grade). In univariate analysis, participants with early PT had higher rates of smoking and sexual activity, and MA was not related to their psychobehavioral outcomes. After multivariate adjustment, only late PT was significantly correlated with lower amounts of cigarette smoking and sexual activity before the age of 20. Conceptual and actual pubertal developments may be differentially associated with psychobehavioral outcomes among young Taiwanese girls. Clinical attention should be given to adolescent self-perception of

Candidate gene expression in Bos indicus ovarian tissues: pre-pubertal and post-pubertal heifers in diestrus

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Mayara Morena Del Cambre Amaral Weller

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Growth factors such as bone morphogenetic proteins 6, 7, 15 and two isoforms of transforming growth factor-beta (BMP6, BMP7, BMP15, TGFB1 and TGFB2 and insulin-like growth factor system act as local regulators of ovarian follicular development. To elucidate if these factors as well as others candidate genes such as estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1, growth differentiation factor 9 (GDF9, follicle stimulating hormone receptor (FSHR, luteinizing hormone receptor (LHR, bone morphogenetic protein receptor, type 2 (BMPR2, type 1 insulin-like growth factor receptor (IGFR1, and key steroidogenic enzymes cytochrome P450 aromatase and 3-β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase (CYP19A1 and HSD3B1 could modulate or influence diestrus on the onset of puberty in Brahman heifers, their ovarian mRNA expression was measured before and after puberty (luteal phase. Six post-pubertal (POST heifers were euthanized on the luteal phase of their second cycle, confirmed by corpus luteum observation, and six pre-pubertal (PRE heifers were euthanized in the same day. Quantitative real-time PCR analysis showed that the expression of FSHR, BMP7, CYP19A1, IGF1 and IGFR1 mRNA was greater in PRE heifers, when contrasted to POST heifers. The expression of LHR and HSD3B1 was lower in PRE heifers. Differential expression of ovarian genes could be associated with changes in follicular dynamics and different cell populations that have emerged as consequence of puberty and the luteal phase. The emerging hypothesis is that BMP7 and IGF1 are co-expressed and may modulate the expression of FSHR, LHR and IGFR1 and CYP19A1. BMP7 could influence the down-regulation of LHR and up-regulation of FSHR and CYP19A1, which mediates the follicular dynamics in heifer ovaries. Up-regulation of IGF1 expression pre-puberty, compared to post-puberty diestrus, correlates with increased levels FSHR and CYP19A1. Thus, BMP7 and IGF1 may play synergic roles and were predicted to interact, from the expression data (P = 0

Biological and socio-cultural factors during the school years predicting women’s lifetime educational attainment

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Hendrick, C. Emily; Cohen, Alison K.; Deardorff, Julianna

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND Lifetime educational attainment is an important predictor of health and well-being for women in the United States. In the current study, we examine the roles of socio-cultural factors in youth and an understudied biological life event, pubertal timing, in predicting women’s lifetime educational attainment. METHODS Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort (N = 3889), we conducted sequential multivariate linear regression analyses to investigate the influences of macro-level and family-level socio-cultural contextual factors in youth (region of country, urbanicity, race/ethnicity, year of birth, household composition, mother’s education, mother’s age at first birth) and early menarche, a marker of early pubertal development, on women’s educational attainment after age 24. RESULTS Pubertal timing and all socio-cultural factors in youth, other than year of birth, predicted women’s lifetime educational attainment in bivariate models. Family factors had the strongest associations. When family factors were added to multivariate models, geographic region in youth and pubertal timing were no longer significant. CONCLUSION Our findings provide additional evidence that family factors should be considered when developing comprehensive and inclusive interventions in childhood and adolescence to promote lifetime educational attainment among girls. PMID:26830508

Duration of the pubertal peak in skeletal Class I and Class III subjects.

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Kuc-Michalska, Małgorzata; Baccetti, Tiziano

2010-01-01

To estimate and compare the duration of the pubertal growth peak in Class I and Class III subjects. The data examined consisted of pretreatment lateral cephalometric records of 218 skeletal Class I or Class III subjects (93 female and 125 male subjects) of white ancestry. The duration of the pubertal peak was calculated from the average chronological age intervals between stages CS3 and CS4 of the cervical vertebral maturation in Class I vs Class III groups (t-test). In skeletal Class I subjects, the pubertal peak had a mean duration of 11 months, whereas in Class III subjects it lasted 16 months. The average difference (5 months) was statistically significant (P < .001). The growth interval corresponding to the pubertal growth spurt (CS3-CS4) was longer in Class III subjects than in subjects with normal skeletal relationships; the larger increases in mandibular length during the pubertal peak reported in the literature for Class III subjects may be related to the longer duration of the pubertal peak.

The physiology and timing of male puberty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tinggaard, Jeanette; Mieritz, Mikkel Grunnet; Sørensen, Kaspar

2012-01-01

To describe available markers of male puberty, discuss associations between adiposity and pubertal timing and to review recent evidence of a possible secular trend in male pubertal timing.......To describe available markers of male puberty, discuss associations between adiposity and pubertal timing and to review recent evidence of a possible secular trend in male pubertal timing....

Individual differences in boys' and girls' timing and tempo of puberty: modeling development with nonlinear growth models.

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Marceau, Kristine; Ram, Nilam; Houts, Renate M; Grimm, Kevin J; Susman, Elizabeth J

2011-09-01

Pubertal development is a nonlinear process progressing from prepubescent beginnings through biological, physical, and psychological changes to full sexual maturity. To tether theoretical concepts of puberty with sophisticated longitudinal, analytical models capable of articulating pubertal development more accurately, we used nonlinear mixed-effects models to describe both the timing and tempo of pubertal development in the sample of 364 White boys and 373 White girls measured across 6 years as part of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development. Individual differences in timing and tempo were extracted with models of logistic growth. Differential relations emerged for how boys' and girls' timing and tempo of development were related to physical characteristics (body mass index, height, and weight) and psychological outcomes (internalizing problems, externalizing problems, and risky sexual behavior). Timing and tempo are associated in boys but not girls. Pubertal timing and tempo are particularly important for predicting psychological outcomes in girls but only sparsely related to boys' psychological outcomes. Results highlight the importance of considering the nonlinear nature of puberty and expand the repertoire of possibilities for examining important aspects of how and when pubertal processes contribute to development.

Pubertal stage and the prevalence of violence and social/relational aggression.

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Hemphill, Sheryl A; Kotevski, Aneta; Herrenkohl, Todd I; Toumbourou, John W; Carlin, John B; Catalano, Richard F; Patton, George C

2010-08-01

We examined associations between pubertal stage and violent adolescent behavior and social/relational aggression. The International Youth Development Study comprises statewide representative student samples in grades 5, 7, and 9 (N = 5769) in Washington State and Victoria, Australia, drawn as a 2-stage cluster sample in each state. We used a school-administered, self-report student survey to measure previous-year violent behavior (ie, attacking or beating up another person) and social/relational aggression (excluding peers from the group, threatening to spread lies or rumors), as well as risk and protective factors and pubertal development. Cross-sectional data were analyzed. Compared with early puberty, the odds of violent behavior were approximately threefold higher in midpuberty (odds ratio [OR]: 2.87 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.81-4.55]) and late puberty (OR: 3.79 [95% CI: 2.25-6.39]) after adjustment for demographic factors. For social/relational aggression, there were weaker overall associations after adjustment, but these associations included an interaction between pubertal stage and age, and stronger associations with pubertal stage at younger age were shown (P = .003; midpuberty OR: 1.78 [95% CI: 1.20-2.63]; late puberty OR: 3.00 [95% CI: 1.95-4.63]). Associations between pubertal stage and violent behavior and social/relational aggression remained after the inclusion of social contextual mediators in the analyses. Pubertal stage was associated with higher rates of violent behavior and social/relational aggression, with the latter association seen only at younger ages. Puberty is an important phase at which to implement prevention programs to reduce adolescent violent and antisocial behaviors.

Adolescents' increasing stress response to social evaluation: pubertal effects on cortisol and alpha-amylase during public speaking.

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van den Bos, Esther; de Rooij, Mark; Miers, Anne C; Bokhorst, Caroline L; Westenberg, P Michiel

2014-01-01

Stress responses to social evaluation are thought to increase during adolescence, which may be due to pubertal maturation. However, empirical evidence is scarce. This study is the first to investigate the relation between pubertal development and biological responses to a social-evaluative stressor longitudinally. Participants performed the Leiden Public Speaking Task twice, with a 2-year interval (N = 217; age at Time 1: 8-17 years). The results support an increase in sensitivity to social evaluation during adolescence. The overall cortisol and alpha-amylase responses increased-both between and within participants-and were more strongly related to self-reported pubertal development than to age. The cortisol response shifted from speech delivery toward anticipation. The alpha-amylase response increased in both phases. © 2013 The Authors. Child Development © 2013 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Repeatability and accuracy of reproductive tract scoring to determine pubertal status in beef heifers.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenkrans, Kelly S; Hardin, David K

2003-03-01

The objective of this study was to compare the repeatability and accuracy of palpation per rectum to transrectal ultrasonography and serum progesterone concentrations for determining pubertal status in beef heifers. One hundred and seventy-four rectal examinations were performed on 29 predominantly Angus heifers by two veterinarians (A and B) and assigned individual reproductive tract scores (RTS) during monthly examinations over a 3-month period. Heifers were examined in the morning by both veterinarians, randomized, and re-examined in the afternoon. The size and location of ovarian structures of each heifer were determined by ultrasonography. Heifers with follicles >10mm in diameter or corpora lutea were classified as pubertal. Serum progesterone concentrations at the time of the examination and 10 days later were determined by radioimmunoassay and used to classify heifers as prepubertal (or=1 ng/ml). Kappa, which describes degree of agreement beyond chance, was used to determine repeatability of the RTS system. Multicategory Kappa for agreement was 0.64 within veterinarian, 0.46 between veterinarian, and 0.35 between palpation per rectum and transrectal ultrasonography. Sensitivity and specificity of palpation per rectum for diagnosis of pubertal status compared to serum progesterone levels were higher (82 and 69%, respectively) than sensitivity and specificity of ultrasonography (79 and 59%, respectively). This study validates the RTS system as a repeatable and accurate screening test to evaluate pubertal status in groups of heifers prior to the onset of the breeding season.

Gingival crevicular fluid alkaline phosphatase activity in relation to pubertal growth spurt and dental maturation: A multiple regression study

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Perinetti, G.

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The identification of the onset of the pubertal growth spurt has major clinical implications when dealing with orthodontic treatment in growing subjects. Aim: Through multivariate methods, this study evaluated possible relationships between the gingival crevicular fluid (GCF alkaline phosphatase (ALP activity and pubertal growth spurt and dentition phase. Materials and methods: One hundred healthy growing subjects (62 females, 38 males; mean age, 11.5±2.4 years were enrolled into this doubleblind, prospective, cross-sectional-design study. Phases of skeletal maturation (pre - pubertal, pubertal, post - pubertal was assessed using the cervical vertebral maturation method. Samples of GCF for the ALP activity determination were collected at the mesial and distal sites of the mandibular central incisors. The phases of the dentition were recorded as intermediate mixed, late mixed, or permanent. A multinomial multiple logistic regression model was used to assess relationships of the enzymatic activity to growth phases and dentition phases. Results: The GCF ALP activity was greater in the pubertal growth phase as compared to the pre - pubertal and post - pubertal growth phases. Significant adjusted odds ratios for the GCF ALP activity for the pre - pubertal and post - pubertal subjects, in relation to the pubertal group, were 0.76 and 0.84, respectively. No significant correlations were seen for the dentition phase. Conclusions: The GCF ALP activity is a valid candidate as a non - invasive biomarker for the identification of the pubertal growth spurt irrespective of the dentition phase.

Exciting fear in adolescence: Does pubertal development alter threat processing?

OpenAIRE

Spielberg, JM; Olino, TM; Forbes, EE; Dahl, RE

2014-01-01

Adolescent development encompasses an ostensible paradox in threat processing. Risk taking increases dramatically after the onset of puberty, contributing to a 200% increase in mortality. Yet, pubertal maturation is associated with increased reactivity in threat-avoidance systems. In the first part of this paper we propose a heuristic model of adolescent affective development that may help to reconcile aspects of this paradox, which focuses on hypothesized pubertal increases in the capacity t...

Pubertal stage and the prevalence of violence and social relational aggression

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Hemphill, Sheryl A.; Kotevski, Aneta; Herrenkohl, Todd I.; Toumbourou, John W.; Carlin, John B.; Catalano, Richard F.; Patton, George C.

2010-01-01

Objective Violence and social relational aggression are global problems that become prominent in early adolescence. This study examines associations between pubertal stage and adolescent violent behavior and social relational aggression. Methods This paper draws on cross-sectional data from the International Youth Development Study (IYDS), which comprised two state-wide representative samples of students in grades 5, 7 and 9 (N = 5,769) in Washington State in the United States and Victoria, Australia, drawn as a 2-stage cluster sample in each state. The study used carefully matched methods to conduct a school-administered, self-report student survey measuring behavioral outcomes including past year violent behavior (measured as attacking or beating up another person) and social relational aggression (excluding peers from the group, threatening to spread lies or rumors), as well as a comprehensive range of risk and protective factors and pubertal development. Results Compared with early puberty, the odds of violent behavior were approximately three-fold higher in mid-puberty (odds ratio [OR]: 2.87; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.81,4.55) and late puberty (OR: 3.79; 95% CI: 2.25,6.39), after adjustment for age, gender, state, and state by gender interaction. For social relational aggression, there were weaker overall associations after adjustment but these included an interaction between pubertal stage and age, showing stronger associations with pubertal stage at younger age (p = .003; mid-puberty OR 1.78; 95% CI 1.20,2.63; late puberty OR 3.00; 95% CI 1.95,4.63. Associations between pubertal stage and violent behavior and social relational aggression remained (although the magnitude of effects was reduced), after the inclusion of social contextual mediators in the analyses. Conclusions Pubertal stage was associated with higher rates of violent behavior and social relational aggression, with the latter association seen only at younger ages. Puberty may be an

The Few, the Changing, the Different: Pubertal Onset, Perceived School Climate and Body Image in Ethnically Diverse Sixth Grade Girls

OpenAIRE

Morales, Jessica

2012-01-01

The present study examined the impact of pubertal onset, race/ethnicity, and school racial/ethnic composition on girls' body image and perceived school climate (school safety, school liking, and loneliness in school) during the middle school transition. The sample (N = 1,626) included 6th grade Black, Mexican American, White, and Asian girls from 20 diverse middle schools. Hierarchical analyses supported both the early-timing and stressful change hypothesis. That is, experiencing pubertal ons...

Facing changes and changing faces in adolescence: a new model for investigating adolescent-specific interactions between pubertal, brain and behavioral development.

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Scherf, K Suzanne; Behrmann, Marlene; Dahl, Ronald E

2012-04-01

Adolescence is a time of dramatic physical, cognitive, emotional, and social changes as well as a time for the development of many social-emotional problems. These characteristics raise compelling questions about accompanying neural changes that are unique to this period of development. Here, we propose that studying adolescent-specific changes in face processing and its underlying neural circuitry provides an ideal model for addressing these questions. We also use this model to formulate new hypotheses. Specifically, pubertal hormones are likely to increase motivation to master new peer-oriented developmental tasks, which will in turn, instigate the emergence of new social/affective components of face processing. We also predict that pubertal hormones have a fundamental impact on the re-organization of neural circuitry supporting face processing and propose, in particular, that, the functional connectivity, or temporal synchrony, between regions of the face-processing network will change with the emergence of these new components of face processing in adolescence. Finally, we show how this approach will help reveal why adolescence may be a period of vulnerability in brain development and suggest how it could lead to prevention and intervention strategies that facilitate more adaptive functional interactions between regions within the broader social information processing network. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Facing changes and changing faces in adolescence: A new model for investigating adolescent-specific interactions between pubertal, brain and behavioral development

Science.gov (United States)

Scherf, K. Suzanne; Behrmann, Marlene; Dahl, Ronald E.

2015-01-01

Adolescence is a time of dramatic physical, cognitive, emotional, and social changes as well as a time for the development of many social-emotional problems. These characteristics raise compelling questions about accompanying neural changes that are unique to this period of development. Here, we propose that studying adolescent-specific changes in face processing and its underlying neural circuitry provides an ideal model for addressing these questions. We also use this model to formulate new hypotheses. Specifically, pubertal hormones are likely to increase motivation to master new peer-oriented developmental tasks, which will in turn, instigate the emergence of new social/affective components of face processing. We also predict that pubertal hormones have a fundamental impact on the reorganization of neural circuitry supporting face processing and propose, in particular, that, the functional connectivity, or temporal synchrony, between regions of the face-processing network will change with the emergence of these new components of face processing in adolescence. Finally, we show how this approach will help reveal why adolescence may be a period of vulnerability in brain development and suggest how it could lead to prevention and intervention strategies that facilitate more adaptive functional interactions between regions within the broader social information processing network. PMID:22483070

Prenatal and pubertal testosterone affect brain lateralization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beking, T; Geuze, R H; van Faassen, M; Kema, I P; Kreukels, B P C; Groothuis, T G G

After decades of research, the influence of prenatal testosterone on brain lateralization is still elusive, whereas the influence of pubertal testosterone on functional brain lateralization has not been investigated, although there is increasing evidence that testosterone affects the brain in

Sex variations in youth anxiety symptoms: effects of pubertal development and gender role orientation.

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Carter, Rona; Silverman, Wendy K; Jaccard, James

2011-01-01

This study evaluated whether pubertal development and gender role orientation (i.e., masculinity and femininity) can partially explain sex variations in youth anxiety symptoms among clinic-referred anxious youth (N = 175; ages 9-13 years; 74% Hispanic; 48% female). Using youth and parent ratings of youth anxiety symptoms, structural equation modeling results indicated that youth who reported being more advanced in their pubertal development reported high levels of femininity and anxiety symptoms. Youth who reported high levels of masculinity had low levels of anxiety symptoms as reported by both youths and parents. The estimated effects of pubertal development, femininity, and masculinity on youth and parent ratings of youth anxiety symptoms were not significantly moderated by biological sex. Pubertal development and gender role orientation appear to be important in explaining levels of youth anxiety symptoms among clinic-referred anxious youth.

Serum AMH levels are lower in healthy boys who develop pubertal gynaecomastia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mieritz, Mikkel G.; Hagen, Casper P.; Almstrup, Kristian

2015-01-01

Background: Pubertal gynaecomastia is thought to be a clinical sign of an oestrogen-androgen imbalance, affecting up to 60% of boys. In most cases no underlying endocrinopathy can be identified. In boys, Anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) is produced by immature Sertoli cells and circulating level...... decreases as testosterone increases during pubertal maturation. In a previous cross sectional study we found significant lower levels of AMH in boys with pubertal gynaecomastia (Mieritz et al., Clin Endocrinol, 2013). Objective and hypotheses: To investigate serum AMH levels and genetic polymorphisms...... in boys with or without gynaecomastia. Method: 99 healthy Danish boys (aged 5.8-16.4 years) were followed in a prospective cohort over 8 years with semi-annual examinations (total examinations, n=951), including breast palpations and blood samples. Serum AMH concentrations were analysed by immunoassay...

The mammary gland is a sensitive pubertal target in CD-1 and C57Bl/6 mice following perinatal perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) exposure.

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Tucker, Deirdre K; Macon, Madisa B; Strynar, Mark J; Dagnino, Sonia; Andersen, Erik; Fenton, Suzanne E

2015-07-01

Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) is a developmental toxicant in mice, with varied strain outcomes depending on dose and period of exposure. The impact of PFOA on female mouse pubertal development at low doses (≤1mg/kg) has yet to be determined. Therefore, female offspring from CD-1 and C57Bl/6 dams exposed to PFOA, creating serum concentrations similar to humans, were examined for pubertal onset, including mammary gland development. Pups demonstrated a shorter PFOA elimination half-life than that reported for adult mice. Prenatal exposure to PFOA caused significant mammary developmental delays in female offspring in both strains. Delays started during puberty and persisted into young adulthood; severity was dose-dependent. Also an evaluation of female serum hormone levels and pubertal timing onset revealed no effects of PFOA compared to controls in either strain. These data suggest that the mammary gland is more sensitive to early low level PFOA exposures compared to other pubertal endpoints, regardless of strain. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Course and forecast of the hypothalamic pubertal syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kayusheva, I.V.

1987-01-01

A total of 223 patients with the hypothalamic pubertal syndrome (HPS) were followed up for 1 to 22 years. The course of HPS was regressive, stable , recurrent or progressive and dependent on the initial depth and spread of hypothalamic lesion, repeated unfavourable hypothalamic exposures, and timely and regular treatment. HPS outcomes were followed up in 190 cases. The recovery was complete in 21.05%, obesity alone persisted in 10.53%, vegetovascular dystonia was persistent in 7.36%, and polycystic ovaries in 5.79%. Neuroendocrine hypothalamic syndrome was the most common (50.53%) HPS outcome. Hormone levels in blood were investigated using radioimmunoassay in patients with neuroendocrine form of HPS

Effects of Di-(2-ethylhexyl Phthalate on the Hypothalamus–Uterus in Pubertal Female Rats

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Te Liu

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The pollution of endocrine disruptors and its impact on human reproductive system have attracted much attention. Di-(2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP, an environmental endocrine disruptor, is widely used in food packages, containers, medical supplies and children’s toys. It can cause diseases such as infertility, sexual precocity and uterine bleeding and thus arouse concerns from the society and scholars. The effect of DEHP on pubertal female reproductive system is still not well-studied. This study was to investigate the effects of DEHP on the hypothalamus–uterus in pubertal female rats, reveal the reproductive toxicity of DEHP on pubertal female rats and its mechanism, and provide scientific evidence for the evaluation of toxicity and toxic mechanism of DEHP on reproductive system. Forty-eight pubertal female rats were randomly divided into four groups and respectively administered via oral gavage 0, 250, 500, or 1000 mg/kg/d DEHP in 0.1 mL corn oil/20 g body weight for up to four weeks. Compared with control rats, the DEHP-treated rats showed: (1 higher gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH level in the hypothalamus; (2 higher protein levels of GnRH in the hypothalamus; and (3 higher mRNA and protein levels of GnRH receptor (GnRHR in the uterus. Our data reveal that DEHP exposure may lead to a disruption in pubertal female rats and an imbalance of hypothalamus–uterus. Meanwhile, DEHP may, through the GnRH in the hypothalamus and its receptor on the uterus, lead to diseases of the uterus. DEHP may impose a negative influence on the development and functioning of the reproductive system in pubertal female rats.

Effects of Di-(2-ethylhexyl) Phthalate on the Hypothalamus–Uterus in Pubertal Female Rats

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Te; Jia, Yiyang; Zhou, Liting; Wang, Qi; Sun, Di; Xu, Jin; Wu, Juan; Chen, Huaiji; Xu, Feng; Ye, Lin

2016-01-01

The pollution of endocrine disruptors and its impact on human reproductive system have attracted much attention. Di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), an environmental endocrine disruptor, is widely used in food packages, containers, medical supplies and children’s toys. It can cause diseases such as infertility, sexual precocity and uterine bleeding and thus arouse concerns from the society and scholars. The effect of DEHP on pubertal female reproductive system is still not well-studied. This study was to investigate the effects of DEHP on the hypothalamus–uterus in pubertal female rats, reveal the reproductive toxicity of DEHP on pubertal female rats and its mechanism, and provide scientific evidence for the evaluation of toxicity and toxic mechanism of DEHP on reproductive system. Forty-eight pubertal female rats were randomly divided into four groups and respectively administered via oral gavage 0, 250, 500, or 1000 mg/kg/d DEHP in 0.1 mL corn oil/20 g body weight for up to four weeks. Compared with control rats, the DEHP-treated rats showed: (1) higher gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) level in the hypothalamus; (2) higher protein levels of GnRH in the hypothalamus; and (3) higher mRNA and protein levels of GnRH receptor (GnRHR) in the uterus. Our data reveal that DEHP exposure may lead to a disruption in pubertal female rats and an imbalance of hypothalamus–uterus. Meanwhile, DEHP may, through the GnRH in the hypothalamus and its receptor on the uterus, lead to diseases of the uterus. DEHP may impose a negative influence on the development and functioning of the reproductive system in pubertal female rats. PMID:27845755

Fertility of the Small East African goat following pre-pubertal infection with Trypanosoma congolense

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Hara, H.B.; Gombe, S.

1991-01-01

Pre-pubertal male and female Small East African goats were infected with Trypanosoma congolense at 4-5 months of age. Changes in body weight and haemogram were monitored weekly. Progesterone and testosterone measurements were made three times weekly until the goats either reached puberty or 18 months of age. Onset of puberty was determined from observation of oestrus behaviour, mating or increase in libidio; this was confirmed by elevation in plasma progesterone or testosterone levels. Trypanosomiasis affected pre-pubertal goats by reducing body weight gain and delaying onset of puberty. Histological examination of the gonads showed pronounced pathological changes. These effects were reversed by treatment with isometamidium chloride (Samorin, May and Baker). It was concluded that early treatment of infected goats before serious gonadal damage could occur allowed full restoration of reproductive function. (author). 6 refs, 4 figs, 1 tab

Endothelial function in pre-pubertal children at risk of developing cardiomyopathy: a new frontier

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Aline Cristina Tavares

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Although it is known that obesity, diabetes, and Kawasaki's disease play important roles in systemic inflammation and in the development of both endothelial dysfunction and cardiomyopathy, there is a lack of data regarding the endothelial function of pre-pubertal children suffering from cardiomyopathy. In this study, we performed a systematic review of the literature on pre-pubertal children at risk of developing cardiomyopathy to assess the endothelial function of pre-pubertal children at risk of developing cardiomyopathy. We searched the published literature indexed in PubMed, Bireme and SciELO using the keywords 'endothelial', 'children', 'pediatric' and 'infant' and then compiled a systematic review. The end points were age, the pubertal stage, sex differences, the method used for the endothelial evaluation and the endothelial values themselves. No studies on children with cardiomyopathy were found. Only 11 papers were selected for our complete analysis, where these included reports on the flow-mediated percentage dilatation, the values of which were 9.80±1.80, 5.90±1.29, 4.50±0.70, and 7.10±1.27 for healthy, obese, diabetic and pre-pubertal children with Kawasaki's disease, respectively. There was no significant difference in the dilatation, independent of the endothelium, either among the groups or between the genders for both of the measurements in children; similar results have been found in adolescents and adults. The endothelial function in cardiomyopathic children remains unclear because of the lack of data; nevertheless, the known dysfunctions in children with obesity, type 1 diabetes and Kawasaki's disease may influence the severity of the cardiovascular symptoms, the prognosis, and the mortality rate. The results of this study encourage future research into the consequences of endothelial dysfunction in pre-pubertal children.

[Craniopharyngioma and Klinefelter syndrome during the pubertal transition: A diagnostic challenge].

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Mocarbel, Yamile; Arébalo de Cross, Graciela; Lebrethon, Marie C; Thiry, Albert; Beckersd, Albert; Valdes-Socin, Hernan

2017-04-01

Craniopharyngioma is the most common pituitary tumor in childhood. It can compromise the pubertal development because of its evolution or treatment. Syndrome of Klinefelter is the most common cause of hipergonadotrophic hypogonadism in males. The concomitant presentation of both entities is extremely low (1/109) and the pathophysiological association is questionned. We present the case of a 18-year-old Belgian patient. He had a diagnosis of craniopharyngioma in childhood and he presented with panhypopituitarism after radiotherapy and surgical treatment. At the age of 14, he started pubertal induction with gonadotropin therapy without clinical response. Asociación de craneofaringioma y síndrome de Klinefelter en la transición puberal: un desafío diagnóstico Craniopharyngioma and Klinefelter syndrome during the pubertal transition: A diagnostic challenge A genetic evaluation confirmed a homogeneous 47, XXY karyotype. Failure of exogenous gonadotropin therapy revealed the hidden association of primary and secondary hypogonadism, demonstrating the importance of the followup and a multidisciplinary approach in these patients. Sociedad Argentina de Pediatría.

Tamoxifen treatment for pubertal gynecomastia in two siblings with partial androgen insensitivity syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Reiko; Yamamoto, Yukiyo; Goto, Motohide; Araki, Shunsuke; Kubo, Kazuyasu; Kawagoe, Rinko; Kawada, Yasusada; Kusuhara, Koichi; Igarashi, Maki; Fukami, Maki

2014-01-01

Although tamoxifen has been shown to be fairly safe and effective for idiopathic pubertal gynecomastia, it remains unknown whether it is also beneficial for gynecomastia associated with endocrine disorders. Here, we report the effect of tamoxifen on pubertal gynecomastia in 2 siblings with partial androgen insensitivity syndrome (PAIS). Cases 1 and 2 presented with persistent pubertal gynecomastia at 13 and 16 years of age, respectively. Physical examinations revealed breast of Tanner stage 3 and normal male-type external genitalia in both cases. Clinical features such as female-type pubic hair and borderline small testis indicated mildly impaired masculinization. Molecular analysis identified a previously reported p.Arg789Ser mutation in the androgen receptor gene (AR) in the 2 cases. Two months of oral administration of tamoxifen ameliorated gynecomastia to Tanner stage 2 with no adverse events. Additional treatment with testosterone enanthate showed negligible effects on body hair and penile length. Hormone values of the 2 cases during tamoxifen treatment remained similar to those in previously reported untreated patients with PAIS. The results indicate that tamoxifen was effective in treating pubertal gynecomastia in these 2 patients with PAIS and may be considered as a therapeutic option in this situation pending further studies.

Melatonin and LH secretion patterns in pubertal boys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fevre, M.; Boyar, R.M.; Rollag, M.D.

1979-01-01

Plasma melatonin and LH were measured at 20 minute intervals for 24 hours in four normal pubertal boys. All four subjects showed a significant augmentation of LH and melatonin during nocturnal sleep. There was also a significant correlation between the LH and melatonin levels (p [fr

Blood spotting on underpants: Case report of urethral prolapse in a pre-pubertal Chinese girl

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Hei Yi Wong

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Urethral prolapse is a rare urological condition with non-specific clinical manifestations which is mostly seen in pre-pubertal black girls and postmenopausal woman. The exact etiology still remains unknown. We herein present a case report of urethral mucosa prolapse in a 5 year-old Chinese pre-pubertal girl.

Brain Maturation, Cognition and Voice Pattern in a Gender Dysphoria Case under Pubertal Suppression.

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Schneider, Maiko A; Spritzer, Poli M; Soll, Bianca Machado Borba; Fontanari, Anna M V; Carneiro, Marina; Tovar-Moll, Fernanda; Costa, Angelo B; da Silva, Dhiordan C; Schwarz, Karine; Anes, Maurício; Tramontina, Silza; Lobato, Maria I R

2017-01-01

Introduction: Gender dysphoria (GD) (DMS-5) is a condition marked by increasing psychological suffering that accompanies the incongruence between one's experienced or expressed gender and one's assigned gender. Manifestation of GD can be seen early on during childhood and adolescence. During this period, the development of undesirable sexual characteristics marks an acute suffering of being opposite to the sex of birth. Pubertal suppression with gonadotropin releasing hormone analogs (GnRHa) has been proposed for these individuals as a reversible treatment for postponing the pubertal development and attenuating psychological suffering. Recently, increased interest has been observed on the impact of this treatment on brain maturation, cognition and psychological performance. Objectives: The aim of this clinical report is to review the effects of puberty suppression on the brain white matter (WM) during adolescence. WM Fractional anisotropy, voice and cognitive functions were assessed before and during the treatment. MRI scans were acquired before, and after 22 and 28 months of hormonal suppression. Methods: We performed a longitudinal evaluation of a pubertal transgender girl undergoing hormonal treatment with GnRH analog. Three longitudinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were performed for diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), regarding Fractional Anisotropy (FA) for regions of interest analysis. In parallel, voice samples for acoustic analysis as well as executive functioning with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale (WISC-IV) were performed. Results: During the follow-up, white matter fractional anisotropy did not increase, compared to normal male puberty effects on the brain. After 22 months of pubertal suppression, operational memory dropped 9 points and remained stable after 28 months of follow-up. The fundamental frequency of voice varied during the first year; however, it remained in the female range. Conclusion: Brain white matter fractional anisotropy

[A survey of pubertal development in children born with assisted reproductive technology].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zi-Yuan; Wang, Xin-Li; Han, Tong-Yan; Cui, Yun-Pu; Wang, Xue-Mei; Tong, Xiao-Mei; Song, Yi; Wang, Hai-Jun; Li, Song

2017-06-01

To investigate the status of pubertal development in children born with assisted reproductive technology (ART). A retrospective analysis was performed on the pubertal development data of children born with ART in Peking University Third Hospital from 1994 to 2003 (ART group). The data in the cross-sectional study "Reports on the Physical Fitness and Health Research of Chinese School Students in 2010" were used as a control. The age at menarche and the age at spermarche were compared between the two groups. The status of pubertal development in the overweight and obese children in the ART group was evaluated to investigate the correlation between pubertal development and body mass index (BMI). A total of 200 children born with ART were enrolled in this study, and 72 of them (41 males and 31 females) completed the survey (response rate=36.0%). In the ART group, the mean age at spermarche and the mean age at menarche were 13.9 years (95%CI: 13.7-14.3 years) and 12.2 years (95%CI: 11.8-12.6 years), respectively. There were no significant differences in the age at spermarche and the age at menarche between the ART and control groups (P>0.05). In the ART group, there were no significant differences in the age at spermarche and the age at menarche between the overweight and obese children and the normal weight children (P>0.05). There were also no significant differences in overweight rate and obesity rate between the children in the ART group and the adolescents in Beijing (P>0.05). In the ART group, there was no significant correlation between the age at spermarche or menarche and BMI (P>0.05). No delayed or precocious puberty is observed in children born with ART. This is consistent with the normal control data. And there is no significant correlation between pubertal development and BMI in children born with ART.

Electro convulsive therapy in a pre-pubertal child with severe depression.

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Russell P

2002-10-01

Full Text Available Electro Convulsive Therapy (ECT in pre-pubertal children is a controversial and underreported treatment. Even though the effectiveness and side effects of ECT in adolescents are comparable with those in adults, there is a pervasive reluctance to use ECT in children and adolescents. We report the case of a pre-pubertal child in an episode of severe depression with catatonic features, where a protracted course of ECT proved life-saving in spite of prolonged duration of seizures and delayed response to treatment. The case illustrates the safety and efficacy of ECT in children. Relevant literature is also reviewed along with the case report.

An unanswered question in pediatric urology: the post pubertal persistence of prepubertal congenital penile curvature correction by tunical plication.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozkuvanci, Ünsal; Ziylan, Orhan; Dönmez, M Irfan; Yucel, Omer Baris; Oktar, Tayfun; Ander, Haluk; Nane, Ismet

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to analyze post pubertal results of pre pubertal tunica albuginea plication with non-absorbable sutures in the correction of CPC. The files of patients who underwent tunica albuginea plication without incision (dorsal/lateral) were retrospectively reviewed. Patients younger than 13 years of age at the time of operation and older than 14 years of age in November 2015 were included. Patients with a penile curvature of less than 30 degrees & more than 45 degrees and penile/urethral anomalies were excluded. All of the patients underwent surgery followed by circumcision. The mean age of patients at the time of the operation was 9.7 years (range, 6-13 years). The mean degree of ventral penile curvature measured during the operation was 39 degrees while it was 41 degrees in the lateral curvatures. All of the patients were curvature-free at the end of the operation. At the time of the follow-up examination, the mean age was 16.7 years (range, 14-25 years). Six patients had a straight (0-10 degrees) penis during erection and seven patients had recurrent penile curvatures ranging from 30 to 50 degrees. Pre pubertal tunica albuginea plication of congenital penile curvature (30-45 degrees) with non-absorbable sutures performed without incision is a minimal invasive method especially when performed during circumcision. However, recurrence might be observed in half of the patients after puberty. Copyright® by the International Brazilian Journal of Urology.

An unanswered question in pediatric urology: the post pubertal persistence of prepubertal congenital penile curvature correction by tunical plication

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Ünsal Ozkuvanci

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: The aim of this study is to analyze post pubertal results of pre pubertal tunica albuginea plication with non-absorbable sutures in the correction of CPC. Materials and Methods: The files of patients who underwent tunica albuginea plication without incision (dorsal/lateral were retrospectively reviewed. Patients younger than 13 years of age at the time of operation and older than 14 years of age in November 2015 were included. Patients with a penile curvature of less than 30 degrees & more than 45 degrees and penile/urethral anomalies were excluded. All of the patients underwent surgery followed by circumcision. Results: The mean age of patients at the time of the operation was 9.7 years (range, 6-13 years. The mean degree of ventral penile curvature measured during the operation was 39 degrees while it was 41 degrees in the lateral curvatures. All of the patients were curvature-free at the end of the operation. At the time of the follow-up examination, the mean age was 16.7 years (range, 14-25 years. Six patients had a straight (0-10 degrees penis during erection and seven patients had recurrent penile curvatures ranging from 30 to 50 degrees. Conclusion: Pre pubertal tunica albuginea plication of congenital penile curvature (30-45 degrees with non-absorbable sutures performed without incision is a minimal invasive method especially when performed during circumcision. However, recurrence might be observed in half of the patients after puberty.

Effects of programmed physical activity on body composition in post-pubertal schoolchildren

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Edson dos Santos Farias

2015-04-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess body composition modifications in post-pubertal schoolchildren after practice of a physical activity program during one school year. METHODS: The sample consisted of 386 students aged between 15 and 17 years and divided into two groups: the study group (SG comprised 195 students and the control group (CG, 191. The SG was submitted to a physical activity program and the CG attended conventional physical education classes. Body composition was assessed using body mass index (BMI, percentage of body fat (%BF, fat mass (FM, and lean mass (LM. RESULTS: A positive effect of the physical activity program on body composition in the SG (p < 0.001 was observed, as well as on the interaction time x group in all the variables analyzed in both genders. A reduction in %BF (mean of differences = -5.58% and waist circumference (-2.33 cm, as well as an increase in LM (+2.05 kg were observed in the SG for both genders, whereas the opposite was observed in the CG. CONCLUSION: The practice of programmed physical activity promotes significant reduction of body fat in post-pubertal schoolchildren.

The influence of chronic conditions and the environment on pubertal development. An example from medieval England.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, M E; Shapland, F; Watts, R

2016-03-01

Adolescence is a unique period in human development encompassing sexual maturation (puberty) and the physical and psychological transition into adulthood. It is a crucial time for healthy development and any adverse environmental conditions, poor nutrition, or chronic infection can alter the timing of these physical changes; delaying menarche in girls or the age of peak height velocity in boys. This study explores the impact of chronic illness on the tempo of puberty in 607 adolescent skeletons from medieval England (AD 900-1550). A total of 135 (22.2%) adolescents showed some delay in their pubertal development, and this lag increased with age. Of those with a chronic condition, 40.0% (n=24/60) showed delay compared to only 20.3% (n=111/547) of the non-pathology group. This difference was statistically significant. A binary logistic regression model demonstrated a significant association between increasing delay in pubertal stage attainment with age in the pathology group. This is the first time that chronic conditions have been directly associated with a delay in maturation in the osteological record, using a new method to assess stages of puberty in skeletal remains. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Insulin resistance in obese pre-pubertal children: Relation to body ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Secondary outcome is to determine the frequency of the metabolic syndrome components. Subjects and methods: Twenty-three pre-pubertal obese children were ... oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT) and DXA scan for body composition.

Growth trajectory and pubertal tempo from birth till final height in a girl with Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Siew, Jia Xuan; Yap, Fabian

2018-01-01

Growth anomaly is a prominent feature in Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome (WHS), a rare congenital disorder caused by variable deletion of chromosome 4p. While growth charts have been developed for WHS patients 0-4 years of age and growth data available for Japanese WHS patients 0-17 years, information on pubertal growth and final height among WHS children remain lacking. Growth hormone (GH) therapy has been reported in two GH-sufficient children with WHS, allowing for pre-puberty catch up growth; however, pubertal growth and final height information was also unavailable. We describe the complete growth journey of a GH-sufficient girl with WHS from birth until final height (FH), in relation to her mid parental height (MPH) and target range (TR). Her growth trajectory and pubertal changes during childhood, when she was treated with growth hormone (GH) from 3 years 8 months old till 6 months post-menarche at age 11 years was fully detailed. Pubertal growth characteristics and FH information in WHS is lacking.While pre-pubertal growth may be improved by GH, GH therapy may not translate to improvement in FH in WHS patients.Longitudinal growth, puberty and FH data of more WHS patients may improve the understanding of growth in its various phases (infancy/childhood/puberty).

Pubertal development among girls with classical congenital adrenal hyperplasia initiated on treatment at different ages

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Bindu Kulshreshtha

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Children with congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH provide us an opportunity to study the clinical effects of androgen excess in humans. We studied the sequence of pubertal development in girls with congenital adrenal hyperplasia initiated on treatment at different ages, to assess the effects of androgen exposure on the Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Ovarian (HPO axis. Materials and Methods: Girls more than 18 years of age, with CAH, on follow-up at this hospital were the subjects for this study. Details of history, physical findings, laboratory evaluation, and medication were noted from their case records and verified from the patients and their / parents, in addition to assessment of their present health status. Result: We studied 24 patients of classical CAH (SW-2, SV-22, average age - 24.5 ± 6.6 years. All had varying degrees of genital ambiguity (Prader stage 3 (n = 13, Prader stage 2 (n = 10, Prader stage 1 (n = 1. Among them were13 girls, who were started on steroids after eight years of age. Girls who received treatment from infancy and early childhood had normal pubertal development (mean age at menarche 11.4 ± 1.7 years. Hirsutism was not a problem among them. Untreated children had progressive clitoral enlargement throughout childhood, developed pubic hair at around three to six years of age, and facial hair between nine and eleven years. Plasma testosterone ranged from 3 to 6 ng / ml prior to treatment. Six of the 13 untreated CAH girls had subtle breast development starting at ages 11 - 16 years and three had spontaneous infrequent vaginal bleeding starting at ages 11 - 17. Steroid supplementation initiated pubertal changes in older girls in two-to-six months′ time. Conclusion: There was a delay in HPO axis maturation (as evidenced by delayed pubertal development in the absence of treatment in girls with CAH. This could be corrected with steroid supplementation.

A Short-Term Longitudinal Study of Pubertal Change, Gender, and Psychological Well-Being of Mexican Early Adolescents.

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Benjet, Corina; Hernandez-Guzman, Laura

2002-01-01

Studied the role of pubertal development on depression, externalizing behavior problems, self-esteem, and body-image of 951 Mexican early adolescents. Findings show that the acute experience of menarche adversely affected the psychological well-being of girls, specifically in terms of depressive symptomatology. Pubertal change in boys did not…

Serum inhibin B in healthy pubertal and adolescent boys

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, A M; Juul, A; Petersen, J H

1997-01-01

Inhibin B levels were measured in serum from 400 healthy Danish prepubertal, pubertal, and adolescent males, aged 6-20 yr, in a cross-sectional study using a recently developed immunoassay that is specific for inhibin B, the physiologically important inhibin form in men. In addition, serum levels...

Insulin resistance in obese pre-pubertal children: Relation to body ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Heba Elsedfy

2014-04-16

Apr 16, 2014 ... of pre-pubertal obese children, and to investigate the relation- .... children P 10 years, HDL-Cholesterol <35 mg/dl) [18]. .... HDL: high density lipoprotein, TG: triglycerides, IFG: impaired fasting glucose, IGT: impaired glucose ...

Sexual differentiation of human behavior: effects of prenatal and pubertal organizational hormones.

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Berenbaum, Sheri A; Beltz, Adriene M

2011-04-01

A key question concerns the extent to which sexual differentiation of human behavior is influenced by sex hormones present during sensitive periods of development (organizational effects), as occurs in other mammalian species. The most important sensitive period has been considered to be prenatal, but there is increasing attention to puberty as another organizational period, with the possibility of decreasing sensitivity to sex hormones across the pubertal transition. In this paper, we review evidence that sex hormones present during the prenatal and pubertal periods produce permanent changes to behavior. There is good evidence that exposure to high levels of androgens during prenatal development results in masculinization of activity and occupational interests, sexual orientation, and some spatial abilities; prenatal androgens have a smaller effect on gender identity, and there is insufficient information about androgen effects on sex-linked behavior problems. There is little good evidence regarding long-lasting behavioral effects of pubertal hormones, but there is some suggestion that they influence gender identity and perhaps some sex-linked forms of psychopathology, and there are many opportunities to study this issue. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pubertally born neurons and glia are functionally integrated into limbic and hypothalamic circuits of the male Syrian hamster.

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Mohr, Margaret A; Sisk, Cheryl L

2013-03-19

During puberty, the brain goes through extensive remodeling, involving the addition of new neurons and glia to brain regions beyond the canonical neurogenic regions (i.e., dentate gyrus and olfactory bulb), including limbic and hypothalamic cell groups associated with sex-typical behavior. Whether these pubertally born cells become functionally integrated into neural circuits remains unknown. To address this question, we gave male Syrian hamsters daily injections of the cell birthdate marker bromodeoxyuridine throughout puberty (postnatal day 28-49). Half of the animals were housed in enriched environments with access to a running wheel to determine whether enrichment increased the survival of pubertally born cells compared with the control environment. At 4 wk after the last BrdU injection, animals were allowed to interact with a receptive female and were then killed 1 h later. Triple-label immunofluorescence for BrdU, the mature neuron marker neuronal nuclear antigen, and the astrocytic marker glial fibrillary acidic protein revealed that a proportion of pubertally born cells in the medial preoptic area, arcuate nucleus, and medial amygdala differentiate into either mature neurons or astrocytes. Double-label immunofluorescence for BrdU and the protein Fos revealed that a subset of pubertally born cells in these regions is activated during sociosexual behavior, indicative of their functional incorporation into neural circuits. Enrichment affected the survival and activation of pubertally born cells in a brain region-specific manner. These results demonstrate that pubertally born cells located outside of the traditional neurogenic regions differentiate into neurons and glia and become functionally incorporated into neural circuits that subserve sex-typical behaviors.

Comparison of clinical and microbiological features of vulvovaginitis in prepubertal and pubertal girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Yilmaz, Ayse E; Celik, Nurullah; Soylu, Gul; Donmez, Ahsen; Yuksel, Cigdem

2012-07-01

Vulvovaginitisis the most common gynecological problem of childhood. The aim of the study was to determine and compare clinical and microbiological features of vulvovaginitis in prepubertal and adolescent girls. In this retrospective study, the records of patients who were diagnosed with vulvovaginitis between January 2005 and December 2010 in the pediatric outpatient clinic at Fatih University Hospital were retrieved. Information regarding age, symptoms, history of antibiotic use within 1 month prior to presentation, findings on urinalysis, serum antistreptolysin-O levels, and results of urine/vaginal cultures was collected. The records of 112 patients were evaluated, 72 of which were prepubertal (64.2%) and 40 were pubertal (35.7%) at the time of diagnosis. Thirty-eight prepubertal patients (52.7%) had a positive result on vaginal culture, the most commonly encountered microorganism being group A beta-hemolytic streptococcus (15.2%). Culture positivity rate in the pubertal group was 47.5% (19 patients), with Candida albicans being the most frequently isolated microorganism (27.5%). The etiopathogenesis and culture results differ between prepubertal and adolescent girls with vulvovaginitis, which should be taken into consideration in the treatment approach of this disorder. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Peri-pubertal gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist treatment affects sex biased gene expression of amygdala in sheep.

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Nuruddin, Syed; Krogenæs, Anette; Brynildsrud, Ola Brønstad; Verhaegen, Steven; Evans, Neil P; Robinson, Jane E; Haraldsen, Ira Ronit Hebold; Ropstad, Erik

2013-12-01

The nature of hormonal involvement in pubertal brain development has attracted wide interest. Structural changes within the brain that occur during pubertal development appear mainly in regions closely linked with emotion, motivation and cognitive functions. Using a sheep model, we have previously shown that peri-pubertal pharmacological blockade of gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) receptors, results in exaggerated sex-differences in cognitive executive function and emotional control, as well as sex and hemisphere specific patterns of expression of hippocampal genes associated with synaptic plasticity and endocrine signaling. In this study, we explored effects of this treatment regime on the gene expression profile of the ovine amygdala. The study was conducted with 30 same-sex twin lambs (14 female and 16 male), half of which were treated with the GnRH agonist (GnRHa) goserelin acetate every 4th week, beginning before puberty, until approximately 50 weeks of age. Gene expression profiles of the left and right amygdala were measured using 8×15 K Agilent ovine microarrays. Differential expression of selected genes was confirmed by qRT-PCR (Quantitative real time PCR). Networking analyses and Gene Ontology (GO) Term analyses were performed with Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA), version 7.5 and DAVID (Database for Annotation, Visualization and integrated Discovery) version 6.7 software packages, respectively. GnRHa treatment was associated with significant sex- and hemisphere-specific differential patterns of gene expression. GnRHa treatment was associated with differential expression of 432 (|logFC|>0.3, adj. p value expressed as a result of GnRHa treatment in the male animals. The results indicated that GnRH may, directly and/or indirectly, be involved in the regulation of sex- and hemisphere-specific differential expression of genes in the amygdala. This finding should be considered when long-term peri-pubertal GnRHa treatment is used in children. Copyright �

Adolescents' Increasing Stress Response to Social Evaluation: Pubertal Effects on Cortisol and Alpha-Amylase during Public Speaking

Science.gov (United States)

van den Bos, Esther; de Rooij, Mark; Miers, Anne C.; Bokhorst, Caroline L.; Westenberg, P. Michiel

2014-01-01

Stress responses to social evaluation are thought to increase during adolescence, which may be due to pubertal maturation. However, empirical evidence is scarce. This study is the first to investigate the relation between pubertal development and biological responses to a social-evaluative stressor longitudinally. Participants performed the Leiden…

Impact of Pubertal Development and Physical Activity on Heart Rate Variability in Overweight and Obese Children in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Su-Ru; Chiu, Hung-Wen; Lee, Yann-Jinn; Sheen, Tzong-Chi; Jeng, Chii

2012-01-01

Child obesity is frequently associated with dysfunction of autonomic nervous system. Children in pubertal development were suggested to be vulnerable to autonomic nervous system problems such as decrease of heart rate variability from dysregulation of metabolic control. This study explored the influence of pubertal development on autonomic nervous…

Induction of a hypothyroid state during juvenile development delays pubertal reactivation of the neuroendocrine system governing luteinising hormone secretion in the male rhesus monkey (Macaca mulatta).

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, D R; Bhat, G K; Stah, C D; Pohl, C R; Plant, T M

2006-09-01

The present study aimed to determine the influence of thyroid status on the timing of the pubertal resurgence in gonadotrophin-releasing hormone pulse generator activity [tracked by circulating luteinising hormone (LH) levels] in male rhesus monkeys. Six juvenile monkeys were orchidectomised and then treated with the antithyroid drug, methimazole, from 15-19 months until 36 months of age, at which time thyroxine (T(4)) replacement was initiated. Four additional agonadal monkeys served as controls. Blood samples were drawn weekly for hormonal assessments. Body weight, crown-rump length and bone age were monitored at regular intervals. By 8 weeks of methimazole treatment, plasma T(4) had fallen sharply, and the decline was associated with a plasma thyroid-stimulating hormone increase. In controls, plasma LH levels remained undetectable until the pubertal rise occurred at 29.3 +/- 0.2 months of age. This developmental event occurred in only half of the methimazole-treated animals before 36 months of age when T(4) replacement was initiated. The hypothyroid state was associated with a profound arrest of growth and bone maturation, but increased body mass indices and plasma leptin levels. T(4) replacement in methimazole-treated monkeys was associated with the pubertal rise in LH in the remaining three animals and accelerated somatic development in all six animals. Although pubertal resurgence in LH secretion occurred at a later chronological age in methimazole-treated animals compared to controls, bone age, crown-rump length and body weight at that time did not differ between groups. There were no long-term differences in plasma prolactin between groups. We conclude that juvenile hypothyroidism in male primates causes a marked delay in the pubertal resurgence of LH secretion, probably occasioned at the hypothalamic level. Whether this effect is meditated by an action of thyroid hormone directly on the hypothalamus or indirectly as a result of the concomitant deficit in

Insulin resistance in obese children and adolescents: HOMA-IR cut-off levels in the prepubertal and pubertal periods.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurtoğlu, Selim; Hatipoğlu, Nihal; Mazıcıoğlu, Mümtaz; Kendirici, Mustafa; Keskin, Mehmet; Kondolot, Meda

2010-01-01

Childhood obesity is associated with an increased risk for insulin resistance. The underlying mechanism for the physiological increase in insulin levels in puberty is not clearly understood. The aim of the present study was to determine the cut-off values for homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in obese children and adolescents according to gender and pubertal status. Two hundred and eight obese children and adolescents (141 girls, 127 boys) aged between 5 and 18 years were included in the study. The children were divided into prepubertal and pubertal groups. A standard oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was carried out in all children. A total insulin level exceeding 300 μU/mL in the blood samples, collected during the test period, was taken as the insulin resistance criterion. Cut-off values for HOMA-IR were calculated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. In the prepubertal period, the rate of insulin resistance was found to be 37% in boys and 27.8% in girls,while in the pubertal period, this rate was 61.7% in boys and 66.7% in girls. HOMA-IR cut-off values for insulin resistance in the prepubertal period were calculated to be 2.67 (sensitivity 88.2%, specificity 65.5%) in boys and 2.22 (sensitivity 100%, specificity 42.3%) in girls, and in the pubertal period, they were 5.22 (sensitivity 56%, specificity 93.3%) in boys and 3.82 (sensitivity 77.1%, specificity 71.4%) in girls. Since gender, obesity and pubertal status are factors affecting insulin resistance, cut-off values which depend on gender and pubertal status, should be used in evaluation of insulin resistance.

Elevated serum IGF-I, but unaltered sex steroid levels, in healthy boys with pubertal gynaecomastia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mieritz, Mikkel G; Sorensen, Kaspar; Aksglaede, Lise

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Pubertal gynaecomastia is a very common condition. Although the underlying aetiology is poorly understood, it is generally accepted that excess of oestrogens and deficit of androgens are involved in the pathogenesis. Furthermore, adiposity as well as the GH/IGF-I axis may play a role....... In this study, we elucidate the association of adiposity and levels of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), testosterone, oestrogen, IGF-I and IGFBP-3 with the presence of pubertal gynaecomastia in a large cohort of healthy boys. PATIENTS: A total...... of 501 healthy Danish school boys (aged 6·1-19·8 year) from the COPENHAGEN Puberty Study. MEASUREMENTS: Anthropometry and pubertal stages (PH1-6 and G1-5) were evaluated, and the presence of gynaecomastia was assessed. Body fat percentage was calculated by means of four skin folds and impedance...

Prenatal androgen excess programs metabolic derangements in pubertal female rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Xiaonan; Dai, Xiaonan; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Nannan; Cui, Yugui; Liu, Jiayin

2013-04-01

Owing to the heterogeneity in the clinical symptoms of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), the early pathophysiological mechanisms of PCOS remain unclear. Clinical, experimental, and genetic evidence supports an interaction between genetic susceptibility and the influence of maternal environment in the pathogenesis of PCOS. To determine whether prenatal androgen exposure induced PCOS-related metabolic derangements during pubertal development, we administrated 5α-dihydrotestosterone (DHT) in pregnant rats and observed their female offspring from postnatal 4 to 8 weeks. The prenatally androgenized (PNA) rats exhibited more numerous total follicles, cystic follicles, and atretic follicles than the controls. Fasting glucose, insulin, leptin levels, and homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance were elevated in the PNA rats at the age of 5-8 weeks. Following intraperitoneal glucose tolerance tests, glucose and insulin levels did not differ between two groups; however, the PNA rats showed significantly higher 30- and 60-min glucose levels than the controls after insulin stimulation during 5-8 weeks. In addition, prenatal DHT treatment significantly decreased insulin-stimulated phosphorylation of AKT in the skeletal muscles of 6-week-old PNA rats. The abundance of IR substrate 1 (IRS1) and IRS2 was decreased in the skeletal muscles and liver after stimulation with insulin in the PNA group, whereas phosphorylation of insulin-signaling proteins was unaltered in the adipose tissue. These findings validate the contribution of prenatal androgen excess to metabolic derangements in pubertal female rats, and the impaired insulin signaling through IRS and AKT may result in the peripheral insulin resistance during pubertal development.

Pubertal Development and Prepubertal Height and Weight Jointly Predict Young Adult Height and Body Mass Index in a Prospective Study in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Aryeh D; Lundeen, Elizabeth A; Martorell, Reynaldo; Suchdev, Parminder S; Mehta, Neil K; Richter, Linda M; Norris, Shane A

2016-07-01

Height and adiposity track over childhood, but few studies, to our knowledge, have longitudinally examined the mediating relation of the timing and progression of puberty. We assessed interrelations between prepubertal height and body mass index, the progression through puberty, and young adult height and adiposity. We analyzed data from the Birth to Twenty Plus study (females, n = 823; males, n = 765). Serial measures of anthropometry and pubertal development were obtained between ages 9 and 16 y. We used latent class growth analysis to categorize pubertal development with respect to pubic hair (females and males), breasts (females), and genitalia (males) development. Adult height and weight were obtained at ages 18 to 20 y. Among females, higher latent class (earlier initiation and faster progression through puberty) was associated with an increased risk of obesity [pubic hair class 3 compared with class 1: RR, 3.41 (95% CI: 1.57, 7.44)] and inconsistent associations with height. Among males, higher latent class was associated with increased adult height [pubic hair development class 3 compared with class 1: 2.43 cm (95% CI: 0.88, 4.00)] and increased risk of overweight/obesity [pubic hair development class 3 compared with class 1: OR, 3.44 (95% CI: 1.44, 8.20)]. In females, the association with adult height became inverse after adjusting for prepubertal height [pubic hair development class 3 compared with class 1: females, -1.31 cm (95% CI: -2.32, -0.31)]; in males, the association with height was attenuated with this adjustment [-0.56 cm (95% CI: -1.63, 0.52)]. Associations with adiposity were attenuated after adjusting for prepubertal adiposity. Progression through puberty modifies the relation between prepubertal and adult anthropometry. Screening for early or rapid progression of puberty might identify children at an increased risk of becoming overweight or obese adults.

[Pubertal maturation, physical self-esteem and sexuality in a sample of French adolescents].

Science.gov (United States)

Potard, C; Courtois, R; Clarisse, R; Le Floc'h, N; Thomine, M; Réveillère, C

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to explore the links between pubertal maturation, physical self-esteem and sexuality in adolescence, differentiating between boys and girls. The sample was comprised of 312 French secondary school children (seventh and ninth grades); 52.6 % (n=164) of whom were girls. Participants answered three self-evaluation questionnaires: the scale of sexuality (interests, emotions, relationships: IERS) in prime adolescence (12 to 15 years); (b) the self-administered rating scale for pubertal development and (c) the Physical Self-Description Questionnaire (PSDQ). Pubertal maturation was associated with higher scores on "Flirting with the aim of having sexual relations" and "Going out with someone", and a drop in overall and physical self-esteem, mainly in socially valued domains, namely "Body fat" for girls, and "Strength" and "Health" for boys. Overall physical self-esteem was associated with "Going out with someone" and "Flirting with the aim of having sexual relations" in boys. Physical changes at puberty induce two distinct trends in adolescents: sexual exploration and discovery (genitalized body), and self-depreciation (social body). Copyright © 2015 L’Encéphale, Paris. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Putative effects of endocrine disrupters on pubertal development in the human

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Teilmann, Grete; Juul, Anders; Skakkebaek, Niels E

2002-01-01

developing countries to industrialized countries often develop precocious puberty. Not only precocious puberty, but also delayed puberty can, theoretically, be associated with exposure to endocrine disrupters. While it is very plausible that endocrine disrupters may disturb pubertal development...

A pre-pubertal girl with giant juvenile fibroadenoma: A rare case report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kumar Gaurav

2015-01-01

Conclusion: Through this case we want to emphasize that these giant benign neoplasms should be suspected in any pre-pubertal girl with breast lump and should always be treated with breast conserving surgery.

Polymorphisms in JMJD1C are associated with pubertal onset in boys and reproductive function in men

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mørup, Nina; Busch, Alexander Siegfried; Bang, Anne Kirstine

2017-01-01

single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) nearby JMJD1C are associated with pubertal onset in boys and with male reproduction. 671 peri-pubertal boys, 1,027 young men, 315 fertile men, and 252 infertile men were genotyped for two JMJD1C SNPs (rs7910927 and rs10822184). rs7910927 and rs10822184 showed high...... linkage. Boys with the rs7910927 TT genotype entered puberty 3.6 months earlier than their peers (p = 2.5 × 10-2). In young men, the number of T alleles was associated with decreased levels of SHBG, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), testosterone, and testosterone x luteinizing hormone, as well...... on the age at pubertal onset in boys as well as levels of reproductive hormones and testis size in men, emphasizing the relationship between JMJD1C and reproductive functions....

Is Time Predictability Quantifiable?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schoeberl, Martin

2012-01-01

Computer architects and researchers in the realtime domain start to investigate processors and architectures optimized for real-time systems. Optimized for real-time systems means time predictable, i.e., architectures where it is possible to statically derive a tight bound of the worst......-case execution time. To compare different approaches we would like to quantify time predictability. That means we need to measure time predictability. In this paper we discuss the different approaches for these measurements and conclude that time predictability is practically not quantifiable. We can only...... compare the worst-case execution time bounds of different architectures....

Puberty and Pubertal Growth in GH-treated SGA Children: Effects of 2 Years of GnRHa Versus No GnRHa.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Steen, Manouk; Lem, Annemieke J; van der Kaay, Danielle C M; Hokken-Koèelega, Anita C S

2016-05-01

Most studies on puberty in children born small for gestational age (SGA) report height and age at onset of puberty. GH-treated SGA children with an adult height (AH) expectation below -2.5 SDS at onset of puberty can benefit from an additional 2 years of GnRH analog (GnRHa) treatment. There are no data on puberty and growth after discontinuation of GnRHa treatment in GH-treated SGA children. This study aimed to investigate the effects on puberty and pubertal growth of 2 years GnRHa vs no GnRHa in GH-treated SGA children. This was a GH trial involving 76 prepubertal short SGA children (36 girls) treated with GH. Thirty-two children received additional GnRHa for 2 years. Pubertal stages were 3-monthly assessed according to Tanner. Age, bone age, and median height at pubertal onset were lower in girls and boys in the GH/GnRHa group compared with the GH group. In girls and boys treated with GH/GnRHa, pubertal duration after stop of GnRHa treatment was shorter than pubertal duration in those with GH only (40.9 vs 46.7 mo; P = .044; 50.8 vs 57.5 months; P = .006; respectively). Height gain from onset of puberty until AH, including height gain during 2 years of GnRHa treatment, was 25.4 cm in girls and 33.0 cm in boys, which was 6.6 cm more than girls and boys treated with GH only. AH was similar in children treated with GH/GnRHa compared with those with GH only. GH-treated SGA children who start puberty with an AH expectation below -2.5 SDS and are treated with 2 years of GnRHa have a shorter pubertal duration after discontinuation of GnRHa compared with pubertal duration in children treated with GH only. Height gain from onset of puberty until AH is, however, more due to adequate growth during 2 years of GnRHa treatment resulting in a similar AH as children treated with GH only.

Tamoxifen therapy for the management of pubertal gynecomastia: a systematic review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lapid, Oren; van Wingerden, Jan J.; Perlemuter, Leon

2013-01-01

Objective: A systematic review to assess the efficacy of tamoxifen in the management of idiopathic pubertal gynecomastia. Data sources: Searches were conducted using the databases of Medline (search engine PubMed) and Web of Science (R). Study selection: Studies reporting the use of Tamoxifen for

Effects on steroid hormones secretion resulting from the acute stimulation of sectioning the superior ovarian nerve to pre-pubertal rats

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morales-Ledesma Leticia

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract In the adult rat, neural signals arriving to the ovary via the superior ovarian nerve (SON modulate progesterone (P4, testosterone (T and estradiol (E2 secretion. The aims of the present study were to analyze if the SON in the pre-pubertal rat also modulates ovarian hormone secretion and the release of follicle stimulating hormone (FSH and luteinizing (LH hormone. P4, T, E2, FSH and LH serum levels were measured 30 or 60 minutes after sectioning the SON of pre-pubertal female rats. Our results indicate that the effects on hormone levels resulting from unilaterally or bilaterally sectioning the SON depends on the analyzed hormone, and the time lapse between surgery and autopsy, and that the treatment yielded asymmetric results. The results also suggest that in the pre-pubertal rat the neural signals arriving to the ovaries via the SON regulate the enzymes participating in P4, T and E2 synthesis in a non-parallel way, indicating that the mechanisms regulating the synthesis of each hormone are not regulated by the same signals. Also, that the changes in the steroids hormones are not explained exclusively by the modifications in gonadotropins secretion. The observed differences in hormone levels between rats sacrificed 30 and 60 min after surgery reflect the onset of the compensatory systems regulating hormones secretion.

Early Adolescent Friendship Selection Based on Externalizing Behavior: the Moderating Role of Pubertal Development. The SNARE Study.

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Franken, Aart; Prinstein, Mitchell J; Dijkstra, Jan Kornelis; Steglich, Christian E G; Harakeh, Zeena; Vollebergh, Wilma A M

2016-11-01

This study examined friendship (de-)selection processes in early adolescence. Pubertal development was examined as a potential moderator. It was expected that pubertal development would be associated with an increased tendency for adolescents to select their friends based on their similarities in externalizing behavior engagement (i.e., delinquency, alcohol use, and tobacco use). Data were used from the first three waves of the SNARE (Social Network Analysis of Risk behavior in Early adolescence) study (N = 1144; 50 % boys; M age  = 12.7; SD = 0.47), including students who entered the first year of secondary school. The hypothesis was tested using Stochastic Actor-Based Modeling in SIENA. While taking the network structure into account, and controlling for peer influence effects, the results supported this hypothesis. Early adolescents with higher pubertal development were as likely as their peers to select friends based on similarity in externalizing behavior and especially likely to remain friends with peers who had a similar level of externalizing behavior, and thus break friendship ties with dissimilar friends in this respect. As early adolescents are actively engaged in reorganizing their social context, adolescents with a higher pubertal development are especially likely to lose friendships with peers who do not engage in externalizing behavior, thus losing an important source of adaptive social control (i.e., friends who do not engage in externalizing behavior).

Pubertal maturation and sex steroids are related to alcohol use in adolescents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Water, E. de; Braams, B.R.; Crone, E.A.; Peper, J.S.

2013-01-01

Adolescents often show risk-taking behavior, including experimentation with alcohol. Previous studies have shown that advanced pubertal maturation is related to increased alcohol use in adolescents, even when controlling for age. Little is known about the underlying mechanisms of this relation

[Study on the pathogens correlated to sexually transmitted diseases in 285 pre-pubertal girls with vulvovaginitis in Beijing].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiao-Yan; Sun, Hong-Mei; Feng, Yan-Ling; Hu, Jin; Zhao, Han-Qing; Zhang, Li-Ya

2007-08-01

To study the relationship between vulvovaginitis in pre-pubertal girls and pathogens as Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct), N. gonorrhoeae (Ng), Mycoplasma, Ureaplasma urealyticum (Uu), Mycoplasma hominis (Mh), M. genitalium (Mg), M. fermentans (Mf) and M. penetrans (Mpe), as well as to find out the proportion of mycoplasma which is correlated to sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and AIDS. METHODS Vulvae swab specimens from 285 pre-pubertal girls with vulvovaginitis (case group) and 128 healthy girls (control group) were collected and detected by nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR) to identify the existence of pathogens as Ct, Ng, Uu, Mh, Mg, Mf and Mpe. nPCR with both high specificity and sensitivity, would not be influenced by the amount of pathogens in specimens or inactivated during the process of storage or transportation. The rate of detection on pathogens was 59.65% in the 285 specimens from case group including 'one kind of pathogen in one specimen' as 37.54% and 'two kinds' as 16.84% and 'three kinds' as 5.26%. However, in the 128 specimens from control group, the detectable rate of pathogen was 6.25%. Relationships were found between Ng (P vulvovaginitis in pre-pubertal girls. In control group the pathogens were detected from 7 specimens including 5 Uu and 2 Mh. Some of the pathogens were correlated to STD and were important in causing vulvovaginitis in pre-pubertal girls. Vulvovaginitis might have been caused by more than one kind of pathogen in pre-pubertal girls. The locations of Mg, Mf and Ng in outer genital tracts were correlated to seasonal change. Macrolide seemed to be quite effective clinically in treating urogenital tract infection caused by mycoplasma and Ct.

Gender specific effect of major dietary patterns on the metabolic syndrome risk in Korean pre-pubertal children

OpenAIRE

Park, Soo Jin; Lee, Seung Min; Kim, Seon Mee; Lee, Myoungsook

2013-01-01

There is a lack of data on metabolic risk factors during pre-puberty, which is important for identifying the subgroups of youth, at whom early interventions should be targeted. In this study, we evaluated the prevalence of metabolic risk factors and its subsequent relations with dietary patterns in Korean pre-pubertal children through a cross-sectional sample (n = 1,008; boys = 513) of pre-pubertal children (aged 8-9 years) from a sub-study of the Korea Metabolic Syndrome Research Initiatives...

Giant fibroadenoma of the breast in a pre-pubertal girl: a case report

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Sunder Goyal

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Juvenile fibroadenoma comprises about 4% of the total fibroadenomas. The incidence of giant juvenile fibroadenomas is merely 0.5% of all the fibroadenomas. Bilateral giant juvenile fibroadenomas are extremely rare. We are presenting a case of giant juvenile fibroadenomas in an 11-year-old pre-pubertal girl. The diagnosis was made on fine-needle aspiration cytology which was confirmed on histopathology. As these tumors are mostly benign, breast-conserving surgery is done so that patient can lead a normal life without psychological trauma.-----------------------------------Cite this article as: Goyal S, Garg G, Narang S. Giant fibroadenoma of the breast in a pre-pubertal girl: a case report. Int J Cancer Ther Oncol 2014; 2(1:020113.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14319/ijcto.0201.13

Contributions of Function-Altering Variants in Genes Implicated in Pubertal Timing and Body Mass for Self-Limited Delayed Puberty.

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Howard, Sasha R; Guasti, Leonardo; Poliandri, Ariel; David, Alessia; Cabrera, Claudia P; Barnes, Michael R; Wehkalampi, Karoliina; O'Rahilly, Stephen; Aiken, Catherine E; Coll, Anthony P; Ma, Marcella; Rimmington, Debra; Yeo, Giles S H; Dunkel, Leo

2018-02-01

Self-limited delayed puberty (DP) is often associated with a delay in physical maturation, but although highly heritable the causal genetic factors remain elusive. Genome-wide association studies of the timing of puberty have identified multiple loci for age at menarche in females and voice break in males, particularly in pathways controlling energy balance. We sought to assess the contribution of rare variants in such genes to the phenotype of familial DP. We performed whole-exome sequencing in 67 pedigrees (125 individuals with DP and 35 unaffected controls) from our unique cohort of familial self-limited DP. Using a whole-exome sequencing filtering pipeline one candidate gene [fat mass and obesity-associated gene (FTO)] was identified. In silico, in vitro, and mouse model studies were performed to investigate the pathogenicity of FTO variants and timing of puberty in FTO+/- mice. We identified potentially pathogenic, rare variants in genes in linkage disequilibrium with genome-wide association studies of age at menarche loci in 283 genes. Of these, five genes were implicated in the control of body mass. After filtering for segregation with trait, one candidate, FTO, was retained. Two FTO variants, found in 14 affected individuals from three families, were also associated with leanness in these patients with DP. One variant (p.Leu44Val) demonstrated altered demethylation activity of the mutant protein in vitro. Fto+/- mice displayed a significantly delayed timing of pubertal onset (P puberty in the general population may contribute to the pathogenesis of self-limited DP. Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society

Two organizational effects of pubertal testosterone in male rats: transient social memory and a shift away from long-term potentiation following a tetanus in hippocampal CA1.

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Hebbard, Pamela C; King, Rebecca R; Malsbury, Charles W; Harley, Carolyn W

2003-08-01

The organizational role of pubertal androgen receptor (AR) activation in synaptic plasticity in hippocampal CA1 and in social memory was assessed. Earlier data suggest pubertal testosterone reduces adult hippocampal synaptic plasticity. Four groups were created following gonadectomy at the onset of puberty: rats given testosterone; rats given testosterone but with the AR antagonist flutamide, present during puberty; rats given testosterone at the end of puberty; and rats given cholesterol at the end of puberty. A tetanus normally inducing long-term potentiation (LTP) was used to stimulate CA1 in the urethane-anesthetized adults during the dark phase of their cycle. Social memory was assessed prior to electrophysiology. Social memory for a juvenile rat at 120 min was seen only in rats not exposed to AR activation during puberty. Pubertal AR activation may induce the reduced social memory of male rats. Early CA1 LTP occurred following tetanus in rats with no pubertal testosterone. Short-term potentiation occurred in rats exposed to pubertal testosterone. Unexpectedly, rats with pubertal AR activation developed long-term depression (LTD). The same pattern was seen in normal male rats. Lack of LTP during the dark phase is consistent with other data on circadian modulation of CA1 LTP. No correlations were seen among social memory scores and CA1 plasticity measures. These data argue for two organizational effects of pubertal testosterone: (1) CA1 synaptic plasticity shifts away from potentiation toward depression; (2) social memory is reduced. Enduring effects of pubertal androgen on limbic circuits may contribute to reorganized behaviors in the postpubertal period.

Salivary testosterone concentrations in pubertal ICSI boys compared with spontaneously conceived boys

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Belva, F.; Bonduelle, M.; Schiettecatte, J.; Tournaye, H.; Painter, R. C.; Devroey, P.; de Schepper, J.

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: To date, no data exist about Leydig cell function of pubertal boys born after ICSI. To evaluate a potential risk of gonadal dysfunction in children born from fathers with compromised fertility, testicular function was assessed by the measurement of salivary testosterone. METHODS: Morning

Lauric Acid Stimulates Mammary Gland Development of Pubertal Mice through Activation of GPR84 and PI3K/Akt Signaling Pathway.

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Meng, Yingying; Zhang, Jing; Zhang, Fenglin; Ai, Wei; Zhu, Xiaotong; Shu, Gang; Wang, Lina; Gao, Ping; Xi, Qianyun; Zhang, Yongliang; Liang, Xingwei; Jiang, Qingyan; Wang, Songbo

2017-01-11

It has been demonstrated that dietary fat affects pubertal mammary gland development. However, the role of lauric acid (LA) in this process remains unclear. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the effects of LA on mammary gland development in pubertal mice and to explore the underlying mechanism. In vitro, 100 μM LA significantly promoted proliferation of mouse mammary epithelial cell line HC11 by regulating expression of proliferative markers (cyclin D1/3, p21, PCNA). Meanwhile, LA activated the G protein-coupled receptor 84 (GPR84) and PI3K/Akt signaling pathway. In agreement, dietary 1% LA enhanced mammary duct development, increased the expression of GPR84 and cyclin D1, and activated PI3K/Akt in mammary gland of pubertal mice. Furthermore, knockdown of GPR84 or inhibition of PI3K/Akt totally abolished the promotion of HC11 proliferation induced by LA. These results showed that LA stimulated mammary gland development of pubertal mice through activation of GPR84 and PI3K/Akt signaling pathway.

Time-predictable Stack Caching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abbaspourseyedi, Sahar

completely. Thus, in systems with hard deadlines the worst-case execution time (WCET) of the real-time software running on them needs to be bounded. Modern architectures use features such as pipelining and caches for improving the average performance. These features, however, make the WCET analysis more...... addresses, provides an opportunity to predict and tighten the WCET of accesses to data in caches. In this thesis, we introduce the time-predictable stack cache design and implementation within a time-predictable processor. We introduce several optimizations to our design for tightening the WCET while...... keeping the timepredictability of the design intact. Moreover, we provide a solution for reducing the cost of context switching in a system using the stack cache. In design of these caches, we use custom hardware and compiler support for delivering time-predictable stack data accesses. Furthermore...

Investigation of pre-pubertal sex differences in wheel running and social behavior in three mouse strains.

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Gordon, Elizabeth A; Corbitt, Cynthia

2015-08-01

Sex differences in social behaviors exist in mammals during adulthood, and further evidence suggests that sex differences in behavior are present before sexual maturity. In order to model behavioral disorders in animals, it is important to assess baseline sex-related behavioral differences, especially when studying disorders for which sex-related behavioral effects are expected. We investigated the effect of sex on behavior in 3 strains of pre-pubertal mice (C57BL/6, CFW, and CF1) using a wheel-running assay. We found no significant sex differences in latency to run on the wheel or total duration of wheel running within each strain. During the social interaction test, there were no differences between sexes in latency or total duration of contact or following between a subject and novel mouse. We also evaluated behavioral patterns of wheel running and stereotypical behaviors, such as burrowing and grooming. Both sexes showed characteristic wheel running behavior, spending the majority of each trial interacting with the wheel when it was free and more time performing other activities ( e.g. , stereotypical behaviors, general locomotion) when it was jammed. These results provide evidence that, among various strains of pre-pubertal mice, baseline sex-related behavioral differences are not strong enough to influence the measured behaviors.

Total pubertal growth in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis treated with growth hormone: analysis of a single center.

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Bechtold, S; Beyerlein, A; Ripperger, P; Roeb, J; Dalla Pozza, R; Häfner, R; Haas, J P; Schmidt, H

2012-10-01

Growth failure is a permanent sequelae in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). The aim of the study was to compare pubertal growth in control and growth hormone (GH) treated JIA subjects. 64 children with JIA at a mean age of 10.38 ± 2.80 years were enrolled and followed until final height (measured in standard deviation (SD) scores). 39 children (20 m) received GH therapy and 24 (9 m) served as controls. GH dose was 0.33 mg/kg/week. Linear regression analysis was performed to identify factors influencing total pubertal growth. Mean total pubertal growth was 21.1 ± 1.3 cm (mean ± SD) in GH treated JIA patients and 13.8 ± 1.5 cm in controls. Final height was significantly higher with GH treatment (-1.67 ± 1.20 SD) compared to controls (-3.20 ± 1.84 SD). Linear regression model identified age at onset of puberty (ß=-4.2,CI: -5.9, -2.6 in controls and ß=-2.3,CI: -3.6, -1.1 in GH treated) as the main factor for total pubertal growth. Final height SDS was determined by the difference to target height at onset of puberty (ß=-0.59;CI: -0.80, -0.37 in controls and ß=-0.30,CI: -0.52, -0.08 in GH treated), age at onset of puberty (ß=0.47;CI:0.02,0.93 in controls and 0.23;CI: -0.00,0.46 in GH treated) and height gain during puberty (ß=0.13;CI:0.05,0.21 in controls and ß=0.11;CI:0.07,0.16 in GH treated). Total pubertal growth in JIA patients treated with GH was increased by a factor of 1.5 greater in comparison to controls leading to a significantly better final height. To maximize final height GH treatment should be initiated early to reduce the height deficit at onset of puberty. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Wallow on Growth Performance of Pre-Pubertal Pigs in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A study was carried out to determine the influence of wallow on the growth performance of growing pigs. Sixteen (16) pre-pubertal pigs (8 males and 8 females) of large white breed, aged three months were randomly assigned to two treatments. There were eight animals per group designated as treatment A = with wallow ...

Effects of programmed physical activity on body composition in post-pubertal schoolchildren.

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Farias, Edson Dos Santos; Gonçalves, Ezequiel Moreira; Morcillo, André Moreno; Guerra-Júnior, Gil; Amancio, Olga Maria Silverio

2015-01-01

To assess body composition modifications in post-pubertal schoolchildren after practice of a physical activity program during one school year. The sample consisted of 386 students aged between 15 and 17 years and divided into two groups: the study group (SG) comprised 195 students and the control group (CG), 191. The SG was submitted to a physical activity program and the CG attended conventional physical education classes. Body composition was assessed using body mass index (BMI), percentage of body fat (%BF), fat mass (FM), and lean mass (LM). A positive effect of the physical activity program on body composition in the SG (pgenders. A reduction in %BF (mean of differences = -5.58%) and waist circumference (-2.33 cm), as well as an increase in LM (+2.05 kg) were observed in the SG for both genders, whereas the opposite was observed in the CG. The practice of programmed physical activity promotes significant reduction of body fat in post-pubertal schoolchildren. Copyright © 2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Pubertal development, physical self-perception, and motivation toward physical activity in girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Labbrozzi, Dina; Robazza, Claudio; Bertollo, Maurizio; Bucci, Ines; Bortoli, Laura

2013-08-01

We examined the differences in physical self-perception and motivation toward physical activity in early- and mid-adolescent girls. Body Mass Index (BMI) and pubertal status, assessed by means of the Tanner scale, were collected in 11-year-old (n=74) and 13-year-old girls (n=60). The assessment included six scales from the Physical Self-Description Questionnaire, the Physical Activity Enjoyment Scale, and the Situational Intrinsic Motivation Scale. Age differences emerged, with older girls showing a poorer physical perception and lower scores in intrinsic motivation and enjoyment of physical activity. In the subsample of 11-year-olds, findings showed that more developed girls reported a poorer physical perception on the scales of body fat, global physical self-concept, and appearance, and a lower score in the PACES positive scale. Results underscore the need to promote interventions aimed at encouraging active lifestyles among children and adolescent girls, in order to prevent overweight prior to pubertal onset. Copyright © 2013 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationships between anthropometric features, body composition, and anaerobic alactic power in elite post-pubertal and mature male taekwondo athletes

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Boraczyński Michał

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The paper describes the relationships between anthropometric features, body composition, and anaerobic alactic power (AAP in elite post-pubertal and mature male taekwondo athletes. Methods. The sample of 41 taekwondo athletes was divided into two groups: post-pubertal (P-P, n = 19, Mage = 15.6 ± 1.1 years and mature (M, n = 22, Mage = 20.7 ± 2.8 years. Anthropometric features (WB-150, ZPU Tryb-Wag, Poland, body composition (BC-418 MA, Tanita, Japan, maturational status (Pubertal Maturational Observational Scale, and AAP (10-s version of the Wingate Anaerobic Test were assessed. Results. Post-hoc testing revealed significant between-group differences (3.2-20.4%, p < 0.01 in all anthropometric and body composition measures, with effect sizes (ES between −0.79 and −1.25 (p < 0.001, except for fat content and percentage of skeletal muscle mass (SMM (p ≥ 0.05. In group M, the maximal power output (Pmax was greater (ES = −1.15, p < 0.001 and the time of its attainment shorter (ES = 0.59, p < 0.001 than in group P-P. Correlation analyses indicated notably strong associations between body mass (BM and Pmax in group P-P (r = 0.950 [95% CI, 0.85-0.98], p < 0.001 and M (r = 0.926 [95% CI, 0.81-0.97], p < 0.001, and similar-sized strong correlations between fat-free mass (FFM and Pmax in group P-P (r = 0.955 [95% CI, 0.86-0.99], p < 0.001 and M (r = 0.924 [95% CI, 0.82-0.96], p < 0.001. Additionally, a strong correlation was found between body height and Pmax in groups P-P and M (r = 0.805 [95% CI, 0.54-0.92], p < 0.001 and r = 0.819 [95% CI, 0.58-0.93], p < 0.001, respectively. Linear regression analyses demonstrated that FFM, BM, and absolute SMM best explained the variance in Pmax in both groups (r, 0.939-0.951; r2, 0.882-0.909. Conclusions. The strong correlations observed in both groups between BM, FFM, SMM, and Pmax demonstrate the significant effects of body size and composition on AAP. By determining the current levels of these

IPRODIONE DELAYS MALE RAT PUBERTAL DEVELOPMENT, REDUCING SERUM TESTOSTERONE AND EX VIVO TESTOSTERONE PRODUCTION

Science.gov (United States)

Iprodione (IPRO) is a dichlorophenyl dicarboximide fungicide similar to the androgen receptor (AR) antagonist vinclozolin. The current studies were designed to determine if IPRO would delay male rat pubertal development like vinclozolin and to identify the mechanism(s) of action...

Pubertal induction in hypogonadism: Current approaches including use of gonadotrophins.

Science.gov (United States)

Zacharin, Margaret

2015-06-01

Primary disorders of the gonad or those secondary to abnormalities of the hypothalamic pituitary axis result in hypogonadism. The range of health problems of childhood and adolescence that affect this axis has increased, as most children now survive chronic illness, but many have persisting deficits in gonadal function as a result of their underlying condition or its treatment. An integrated approach to hormone replacement is needed to optimize adult hormonal and bone health, and to offer opportunities for fertility induction and preservation that were not considered possible in the past. Timing of presentation ranges from birth, with disorders of sexual development, through adolescent pubertal failure, to adult fertility problems. This review addresses diagnosis and management of hypogonadism and focuses on new management strategies to address current concerns with fertility preservation. These include Turner syndrome, and fertility presevation prior to childhood cancer treatment. New strategies for male hormone replacement therapy that may impinge upon future fertility are emphasized. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perception regarding pubertal changes among rural adolescent boys of Haryana: A school based study

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Vinod Chayal

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Adolescence is a transition phase through which a child matures into an adult. The physical changes in the human body are from infant to child to adolescence to adult to old age.  All phases of life behave like a coin with both good and bad facets attached to each phase of life. Aims & Objectives:  1. To study perception and awareness regarding pubertal changes among school going adolescent boys. 2. To study the association between education and perceived pubertal problems among study subjects. Material & Methods: The study was conducted among male students of senior secondary schools of community development block Beri in one year. The study universe comprised of students in middle and late adolescence (aged 14-18 years studying in 9th to 12th classes of the senior secondary schools in the area. A total of 1000 male students were selected from these schools which were more than the required sample size of 891. Results: The study found that 42.66% students and a half (50% of students of class 9th & 10th and class 11th & 12th respectively considered that pubertal changes as a normal phenomenon. The majority of students admitted practicing masturbation and felt shy and guilty for practicing masturbation, also students felt fatigued after night emission. Conclusions: The study concludes that adolescent’s sexuality which often causes controversy and concern among adults is least discussed with them during adolescence. The reasons for this may be many, including moral grounds or because of concomitant health risks and threats to wellbeing.

EFFECT OF GnRH AND PHOSPHORUS IN DELAYED PUBERTAL SURTI BUFFALO HEIFERS

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H.B. Dhamsaniya

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The study was conducted on eighteen delayed pubertal Surti buffalo heifers, divided into three equal groups (6 in each to evaluate the efficacy of GnRH alone and in combination of phosphorus. The buffalo heifers in Group-I and Group-II were treated with Buserelin acetate (5 ml, IM. Buffalo heifers in Group-II also received additional injection of Toldimphos sodium (10 ml, IM at 3 day interval for 4 times, while buffalo heifers in Group-III served as control. The percentage of induced estrus was highest (83.33% in each treated groups as compared to control group (50%. The mean estrus induction intervals were significantly (P<0.05 shorter in Group-I (20.20 ± 2.18 days and Group-II (18.80 ± 2.32 days as compared to control group (30.24 ± 0.81 days. The conception rate at induced estrus was highest in Group-II (50% followed by Group-I (33.33%. The plasma progesterone levels being significantly lowest on the day of estrus (less than 0.5 ng/ml as compared to pre-treatment days in all groups. The mean total protein and triglycerides levels were differed significantly between the groups on the day of estrus and being significantly higher in Group-II as compared to Group-I and III on that day. A significantly higher level of cholesterol in both treatment groups as compared to the control group during different intervals and also being higher on the day of estrus as compared to pre-treatment days. The mean plasma glucose levels were differed nonsignificantly between and within the treatment and control groups. It is concluded that estrus can be successfully induced in delayed pubertal heifers with the use of GnRH alone and in combination with phosphorus.

The relationship between pubertal gynecomastia, prostate specific antigen, free androgen index, SHBG and sex steroids.

Science.gov (United States)

Kilic, Mustafa; Kanbur, Nuray; Derman, Orhan; Akgül, Sinem; Kutluk, Tezer

2011-01-01

To investigate the relationships between pubertal gynecomastia, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), free androgen index (FAI), sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) and sex steroids. A total of 61 male adolescents (10-17 years old; mean: 13.67 +/- 1.08) with gynecomastia were enrolled into the study group. A total of 65 healthy age-matched adolescents were included in the control group. Body mass index (BMI), Tanner staging, testis volume, stretched penis length (SPL) and bone age were evaluated. Serum follicle-stimulating hormone, luteinizing hormone (LH), estradiol (E2), testosterone, free testosterone, SHBG, PSA levels were determined and FAI was calculated. In the study group, free testosterone (p = 0.012) and FAI (p = 0.05) were significantly lower than the control group. In the control group, SHBG levels decreased (p 0.05). High FAI was found to decrease the risk of gynecomastia (odds ratio: 0.211, 95% confidence interval: 0.064-0.694, p = 0.01). PSA showed a positive correlation with FAI, free testosterone, Tanner staging, testosterone, E2 and LH levels. PSA is a good indicator of androgen activity during puberty. However, owing to FAI remaining as the single significant variable for pubertal gynecomastia, we suggest that it is still the best parameter to elucidate the etiopathogenesis of gynecomastia as well as other pubertal developmental abnormalities in male adolescents, and further longitudinal studies are needed to investigate the relationships between PSA and FAI in puberty.

Pubertal development and prostate cancer risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonilla, Carolina; Lewis, Sarah J; Martin, Richard M

2016-01-01

, 0.91-1.00) and prostate cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio amongst cases, per tertile: 0.94; 95 % CI, 0.90-0.98), but not with disease grade. CONCLUSIONS: Older age at sexual maturation is causally linked to a reduced risk of later prostate cancer, especially aggressive disease.......BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have observed a positive association between an earlier age at sexual development and prostate cancer, but markers of sexual maturation in boys are imprecise and observational estimates are likely to suffer from a degree of uncontrolled confounding. To obtain...... to a difference of one Tanner stage between pubertal boys of the same age) was associated with a 77 % (95 % CI, 43-91 %) reduced odds of high Gleason prostate cancer. In PRACTICAL, the puberty genetic score was associated with prostate cancer stage (OR of advanced vs. localized cancer, per tertile: 0.95; 95 % CI...

Physical activity reduces systemic blood pressure and improves early markers of atherosclerosis in pre-pubertal obese children.

Science.gov (United States)

Farpour-Lambert, Nathalie J; Aggoun, Yacine; Marchand, Laetitia M; Martin, Xavier E; Herrmann, François R; Beghetti, Maurice

2009-12-15

The aim of this study was to determine the effects of physical activity on systemic blood pressure (BP) and early markers of atherosclerosis in pre-pubertal obese children. Hypertension and endothelial dysfunction are premature complications of obesity. We performed a 3-month randomized controlled trial with a modified crossover design: 44 pre-pubertal obese children (age 8.9 + or - 1.5 years) were randomly assigned (1:1) to an exercise (n = 22) or a control group (n = 22). We recruited 22 lean children (age 8.5 + or - 1.5 years) for baseline comparison. The exercise group trained 60 min 3 times/week during 3 months, whereas control subjects remained relatively inactive. Then, both groups trained twice/week during 3 months. We assessed changes at 3 and 6 months in office and 24-h BP, arterial intima-media thickness (IMT) and stiffness, endothelial function (flow-mediated dilation), body mass index (BMI), body fat, cardiorespiratory fitness (maximal oxygen consumption [VO(2)max]), physical activity, and biological markers. Obese children had higher BP, arterial stiffness, body weight, BMI, abdominal fat, insulin resistance indexes, and C-reactive protein levels, and lower flow-mediated dilation, VO(2)max, physical activity, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels than lean subjects. At 3 months, we observed significant changes in 24-h systolic BP (exercise -6.9 + or - 13.5 mm Hg vs. control 3.8 + or - 7.9 mm Hg, -0.8 + or - 1.5 standard deviation score [SDS] vs. 0.4 + or - 0.8 SDS), diastolic BP (-0.5 + or - 1.0 SDS vs. 0 + or - 1.4 SDS), hypertension rate (-12% vs. -1%), office BP, BMI z-score, abdominal fat, and VO(2)max. At 6 months, change differences in arterial stiffness and IMT were significant. A regular physical activity program reduces BP, arterial stiffness, and abdominal fat; increases cardiorespiratory fitness; and delays arterial wall remodeling in pre-pubertal obese children. (Effects of Aerobic Exercise Training on Arterial Function and

Veterinary attitudes towards pre-pubertal gonadectomy of cats: a comparison of samples from New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom.

Science.gov (United States)

Farnworth, M J; Adams, N J; Seksel, K; Waran, N K; Beausoleil, N J; Stafford, K J

2013-07-01

To compare the attitudes and practices of a sample of veterinarians in New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom (UK) towards pre-pubertal gonadectomy of cats. Respondents' demographics were gathered using an electronic questionnaire distributed via professional veterinary associations in the target countries, as were minimum age at gonadectomy and typical age of puberty. Desirability of prepubertal gonadectomy was gauged using three response categories ('yes', 'no' or 'sometimes'), respondents were then able to justify the response given. Two-way Analyses of Variance (ANOVA) followed by post hoc Tukey HSD tests were used to test whether there were differences in minimum ages for gonadectomy within and between countries and between providers and non-providers of services to pounds (or animal welfare centres). Views on the desirability of prepubertal gonadectomy relative to demographics were explored using a Likelihood Ratio Test. The survey received 717 responses. Most respondents believed pre-pubertal gonadectomy was either entirely or 'sometimes' desirable (556/621), few thought it was undesirable (65/621). Minimum age at gonadectomy was significantly affected by country surveyed and provision or non-provision of services for pounds. Post hoc Tukey HSD analysis indicated the mean age of both spaying and castration (4.3 months) in the UK was significantly different from both Australia (spaying: 3.4 months, castration: 3.2 months) and New Zealand (spaying: 3.4 months, castration: 3.2 months) (all ppre- pubertal gonadectomy. Respondents from the UK were more likely to answer 'no' (p = 0.004) or 'sometimes' (p = 0.050) as compared to those from New Zealand or Australia. Females were more likely to respond with 'sometimes' as opposed to 'yes' than males. Reasons for considering pre-pubertal gonadectomy desirable or sometimes desirable focussed on reducing unwanted pregnancies and improving population control, as well as improving rates of adoption, owner

The Relationship among Pubertal Stage, Age, and Drinking in Adolescent Boys and Girls

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Faden, Vivian B.; Ruffin, Beverly; Newes-Adeyi, Gabriella; Chen, Chiung

2010-01-01

This study used data from the Third National Household and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to examine the association between pubertal status (Tanner staging for boys and girls and menarche for girls) and alcohol use in a nationally representative sample of youths ages 12 to 17. Logistic regression was used to model the relationship. In…

Impact of socio-emotional context, brain development, and pubertal maturation on adolescent risk-taking.

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Smith, Ashley R; Chein, Jason; Steinberg, Laurence

2013-07-01

While there is little doubt that risk-taking is generally more prevalent during adolescence than before or after, the underlying causes of this pattern of age differences have long been investigated and debated. One longstanding popular notion is the belief that risky and reckless behavior in adolescence is tied to the hormonal changes of puberty. However, the interactions between pubertal maturation and adolescent decision making remain largely understudied. In the current review, we discuss changes in decision making during adolescence, focusing on the asynchronous development of the affective, reward-focused processing system and the deliberative, reasoned processing system. As discussed, differential maturation in the structure and function of brain systems associated with these systems leaves adolescents particularly vulnerable to socio-emotional influences and risk-taking behaviors. We argue that this asynchrony may be partially linked to pubertal influences on development and specifically on the maturation of the affective, reward-focused processing system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pubertal development and fertility in survivors of childhood acute myeloid leukemia treated with chemotherapy only

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Molgaard-Hansen, Lene; Skou, Anne-Sofie; Juul, Anders

2013-01-01

More than 60% of children with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) become long-term survivors. Most are cured using chemotherapy without hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We report on pubertal development and compare self-reported parenthood among AML survivors and their siblings....

The organizational effects of pubertal testosterone on sexual proficiency in adult male Syrian hamsters.

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De Lorme, Kayla C; Sisk, Cheryl L

2016-10-15

Social proficiency requires making appropriate behavioral adaptations as a result of social experience. For example, male rodents become sexually proficient with experience as demonstrated by a reduction in ectopic (misdirected) mounts, mount-to-intromission ratio, and latency to ejaculation. We previously found that over a series of timed tests with a receptive female, male hamsters deprived of testosterone specifically during puberty (NoT@P) have overall lower levels of sexual behavior and continue to display high levels of ectopic mounts, compared with males that experienced endogenous testosterone during puberty (T@P). These results suggested that pubertal testosterone programs sexual proficiency in adulthood, but because NoT@P males engaged in less sexual behavior than T@P males in these tests, the amount of sexual experience may have been insufficient to improve sexual proficiency. To more rigorously test the hypothesis that pubertal testosterone is necessary for social proficiency in adulthood, the present study compared the behavior of NoT@P and T@P males in a series of 4 trials with a 48-h interval between each trial. Sexual experience was equated by limiting each trial to 5 intromissions. Sexually-naïve males were either gonadectomized prepubertally (NoT@P) or in adulthood (T@P) and received subcutaneous testosterone capsules four weeks later. Two weeks after testosterone replacement, these groups and a group of adult gonad-intact controls began sexual behavior testing. We found that NoT@P males had more ectopic mounts/min across all four tests compared to gonad-intact and T@P males. Moreover, both gonad-intact and T@P males, but not NoT@P males, showed an increase in the number of mounts and intromissions/min between trials 1 and 3. Unexpectedly, both gonad-intact and T@P, but not NoT@P, males showed a decrease in sexual behaviors during trial 4. Thus, T@P males display multiple behavioral adaptations to sexual experience that are not observed in No

Maternal swimming exercise during pregnancy attenuates anxiety/depressive-like behaviors and voluntary morphine consumption in the pubertal male and female rat offspring born from morphine dependent mothers.

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Torabi, Masoumeh; Pooriamehr, Alireza; Bigdeli, Imanollah; Miladi-Gorji, Hossein

2017-10-17

This study was designed to examine whether maternal swimming exercise during pregnancy would attenuate prenatally morphine-induced anxiety, depression and voluntary consumption of morphine in the pubertal male and female rat offspring. Pregnant rats during the development of morphine dependence were allowed to swim (30-45min/d, 3days per a week) on gestational days 11-18. Then, the pubertal male and female rat offspring were tested for the elevated plus-maze (EPM), sucrose preference test (SPT) and voluntary morphine consumption using a two-bottle choice (TBC) paradigm. The results showed that male and female rat offspring born of the swimmer morphine-dependent mothers exhibited an increase in EPM open arm time and entries, higher levels of sucrose preference than their sedentary control mothers. Voluntary consumption of morphine was less in the male and female rat offspring born of the swimmer morphine-dependent mothers as compared with their sedentary control mothers during three periods of the intake of drug. Thus, swimming exercise in pregnant morphine dependent mothers decreased anxiety, depressive-like behavior and also the voluntary morphine consumption in the pubertal male and female offspring, which may prevent prenatally morphine-induced behavioral sensitization in offspring. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

BMI percentile-for-age overestimates adiposity in early compared with late maturing pubertal children

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Sørensen, Kaspar; Juul, Anders

2015-01-01

and bioelectric impedance analyses (BIA) were used to estimate adiposity. Clinical pubertal markers (Tanner stages and testicular volume) were evaluated. LH, FSH, estradiol, testosterone, SHBG and IGF1 levels were determined by immunoassays. RESULTS: In all age groups, higher BMI (all 1 year age-groups, P ≤ 0...

Perception regarding pubertal changes among rural adolescent boys of Haryana: A school based study

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Vinod Chayal

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Adolescence is a transition phase through which a child matures into an adult. The physical changes in the human body are from infant to child to adolescence to adult to old age.  All phases of life behave like a coin with both good and bad facets attached to each phase of life. Aims & Objectives:  1. To study perception and awareness regarding pubertal changes among school going adolescent boys. 2. To study the association between education and perceived pubertal problems among study subjects. Material & Methods: The study was conducted among male students of senior secondary schools of community development block Beri in one year. The study universe comprised of students in middle and late adolescence (aged 14-18 years studying in 9th to 12th classes of the senior secondary schools in the area. A total of 1000 male students were selected from these schools which were more than the required sample size of 891. Results: The study found that 42.66% students and a half (50% of students of class 9th & 10th and class 11th & 12th respectively considered that pubertal changes as a normal phenomenon. The majority of students admitted practicing masturbation and felt shy and guilty for practicing masturbation, also students felt fatigued after night emission. Conclusions: The study concludes that adolescent’s sexuality which often causes controversy and concern among adults is least discussed with them during adolescence. The reasons for this may be many, including moral grounds or because of concomitant health risks and threats to wellbeing.

Hormonal, anthropometric and lipid factors associated with idiopathic pubertal gynecomastia.

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Al Alwan, Ibrahim; Al Azkawi, Hanan; Badri, Motasim; Tamim, Hani; Al Dubayee, Mohammed; Tamimi, Waleed

2013-01-01

To determine factors associated with pubertal gynecomastia. A cross-sectional study among healthy male school children and adolescents in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Subjects were selected from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds. Tanner stage, height, weight, blood hormonal levels (leutilizing hormone [LH], follicle-stimulating hormone [FSH], total testosterone, and estradiol), and anthropometric and lipid parameters (body mass index [BMI], triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein [HDL], and low-density lipoprotein [LDL]), were collected and compared in children with and without gynecomastia. The study included 542 children and adolescents. Median (interquartile range) age in the whole group was 11(8-13) years. The prevalence of gynecomastia was 185/542 (34%), with a peak at age 14. The 2 groups compared had nonsignificant difference in cholesterol (P=.331), LH (P=.215) and FSH (P=.571) levels. Those with gynecomastia were significantly older, had lower gonad stage, had higher anthropometric (height, weight, and BMI), and lipid (triglycerides, HDL, and LDL) values. In multivariate regression analysis, factors significantly associated with gynecomastia were BMI (odds ratio [OR]=1.05; 95%CI 1.00-1.10; P=.013), HDL (OR=0.42; 95%CI 0.19-0.92; P=.03), and gonad (Stage II OR=2.23; 95%CI 1.27-3.92; P=.005, Stage III OR=6.40; 95%CI 2.70-15.0; P gynecomastia tends to increase in mid-puberty. In our setting, BMI, HDL, and gonad stage were the major factors associated with the development of pubertal gynecomastia.

The association of pain and depression in preadolescent girls: moderation by race and pubertal stage.

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Keenan, Kate; Hipwell, Alison E; Hinze, Amanda E; Babinski, Dara E

2009-08-01

To test whether an association between pain response and depression in females is present during preadolescence using a controlled pain stimulus and a clinically relevant assessment of depressive symptoms. In a sample of 232 girls, pain threshold and tolerance were assessed at age 10 years using the cold pressor task, and a diagnostic interview was used to assess depression symptoms at 10 and 11 years of age. Response to pain at age 10 was associated with depressive symptoms at ages 10 and 11; race and pubertal stage moderated the association. Pain response and depression were more strongly associated among girls who had reached advanced stages of pubertal development and among European American girls. The results add to the existing literature on the co-occurrence of depression and pain by demonstrating modest but consistent concurrent and prospective associations between response to pain and depression among girls during preadolescence.

Sex Variations in Youth Anxiety Symptoms: Effects of Pubertal Development and Gender Role Orientation

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Carter, Rona; Silverman, Wendy K.; Jaccard, James

2011-01-01

This study evaluated whether pubertal development and gender role orientation (i.e., masculinity and femininity) can partially explain sex variations in youth anxiety symptoms among clinic-referred anxious youth (N = 175; ages 9-13 years; 74% Hispanic; 48% female). Using youth and parent ratings of youth anxiety symptoms, structural equation…

The longitudinal effects of physical activity and dietary calcium on bone mass accrual across stages of pubertal development.

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Lappe, Joan M; Watson, Patrice; Gilsanz, Vicente; Hangartner, Thomas; Kalkwarf, Heidi J; Oberfield, Sharon; Shepherd, John; Winer, Karen K; Zemel, Babette

2015-01-01

Childhood and adolescence are critical periods of bone mineral content (BMC) accrual that may have long-term consequences for osteoporosis in adulthood. Adequate dietary calcium intake and weight-bearing physical activity are important for maximizing BMC accrual. However, the relative effects of physical activity and dietary calcium on BMC accrual throughout the continuum of pubertal development in childhood remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of self-reported dietary calcium intake and weight-bearing physical activity on bone mass accrual across the five stages of pubertal development in a large, diverse cohort of US children and adolescents. The Bone Mineral Density in Childhood study was a mixed longitudinal study with 7393 observations on 1743 subjects. Annually, we measured BMC by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), physical activity and calcium intake by questionnaire, and pubertal development (Tanner stage) by examination for up to 7 years. Mixed-effects regression models were used to assess physical activity and calcium intake effects on BMC accrual at each Tanner stage. We found that self-reported weight-bearing physical activity contributed to significantly greater BMC accrual in both sexes and racial subgroups (black and nonblack). In nonblack males, the magnitude of the activity effect on total body BMC accrual varied among Tanner stages after adjustment for calcium intake; the greatest difference between high- and low-activity boys was in Tanner stage 3. Calcium intake had a significant effect on bone accrual only in nonblack girls. This effect was not significantly different among Tanner stages. Our findings do not support differential effects of physical activity or calcium intake on bone mass accrual according to maturational stage. The study demonstrated significant longitudinal effects of weight-bearing physical activity on bone mass accrual through all stages of pubertal development. © 2014 American

Arthrospira (Spirulina) platensis supplementation affects folliculogenesis, progesterone and ghrelin levels in fattening pre-pubertal gilts

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Abadjieva, Desislava; Nedeva, Radka; Marchev, Yordan; Jordanova, Gergana; Chervenkov, Mihail; Dineva, Julieta; Shimkus, Almantas; Shimkiene, Aldona; Teerds, Katja; Kistanova, Elena

2018-01-01

The aim of the present investigation was to study the effect of Arthrospira (Spirulina) platensis supplemented diet on follicular development and related endocrine parameters, such as estradiol and progesterone levels as well as ghrelin levels in pre-pubertal gilts. Twenty-one 60-day-old Danube

EFFECTS OF DIBUTYL PHTHALATE IN MALE RABBITS FOLLOWING IN UTERO, ADOLESCENT OR POST-PUBERTAL EXPOSURE

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Effects of dibutyl phthalate in male rabbits following in utero, adolescent, or post-pubertal exposureTy T. Higuchi1, Jennifer S. Palmer1, L. Earl Gray Jr2., and D. N. Rao Veeramachaneni11Animal Reproduction and Biotechnology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort

Mutational Analysis of TAC3 and TACR3 Genes in Patients with Idiopathic Central Pubertal Disorders

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Tusset, Cintia; Noel, Sekoni D.; Trarbach, Ericka B.; Silveira, Letícia F. G.; Jorge, Alexander A. L.; Brito, Vinicius N.; Cukier, Priscila; Seminara, Stephanie B.; de Mendonça, Berenice B.; Kaiser, Ursula B.; Latronico, Ana Claudia

2013-01-01

Aim To investigate the presence of variants in the TAC3 and TACR3 genes, which encode NKB and its receptor (NK3R), respectively, in a large cohort of patients with idiopathic central pubertal disorders. Patients and Methods Two hundred and thirty seven patients were studied: 114 with central precocious puberty (CPP), 73 with normosmic isolated hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (IHH) and 50 with constitutional delay of growth and puberty (CDGP). The control group consisted of 150 Brazilian individuals with normal pubertal development. Genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral blood and the entire coding region of both TAC3 and TACR3 genes were amplified and automatically sequenced. Results We identified one variant (p.A63P) in NKB and four variants, p.G18D, p.L58L (c.172C>T), p.W275* and p.A449S in NK3R, which were absent in the control group. The p.A63P variant was identified in a girl with CPP, and p.A449S in a girl with CDGP. The known p.G18D, p.L58L and p.W275* variants were identified in three unrelated males with normosmic IHH. Conclusion Rare variants in the TAC3 and TACR3 genes were identified in patients with central pubertal disorders. Loss-of-function variants of TACR3 were associated with the normosmic IHH phenotype. PMID:23329188

Adult Height after Growth Hormone Treatment at Pubertal Onset in Short Adolescents Born Small for Gestational Age: Results from a Belgian Registry-Based Study

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M. Thomas

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. Information on the efficacy of GH treatment in short SGA children starting their treatment in adolescence is limited. Therefore, adult height (AH, total height gain, and pubertal height gain were evaluated in short SGA children who started GH treatment at pubertal onset. Patient and Methods. Growth data of 47 short SGA adolescents (22 boys who started GH treatment at pubertal onset (PUB group were compared with results from 27 short SGA patients (11 boys who started GH therapy at least 1 year before pubertal onset (PrePUB group. Results. The PUB group achieved a mean (±SD total height gain of 0.8 ± 0.7 SDS and an AH of −2.5 ± 0.7 SDS after 4.1 ± 1.1 years of GH treatment with a dosage of 41.8 ± 8.4 μg/kg/day. These results were comparable with those in the PrePUB group, which was treated for a longer duration (5.8 ± 2.1 years, resulting in a total height gain of 1.1 ± 0.7 SDS and an AH of −2.1 ± 1.0 SDS. Multiple regression analysis showed a significantly lower height gain in pubertal patients, females, and patients weighing less at start of GH treatment. An AH above −2 SDS and above the parent-specific lower limit of height was, respectively, reached in 28% and 70% of PUB and 44% and 67% of PrePUB patients (NS. AH SDS was positively correlated with the height SDS at start of GH. Conclusions. Short SGA adolescents starting GH therapy at an early pubertal stage have a modest and variable height gain. A normal AH can be expected in one third of the patients, especially in those with a smaller height deficit at onset of GH treatment.

Serum levels of INSL3, AMH, Inhibin B and Testosterone during pubertal transition in healthy boys

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Lindhardt Johansen, Marie; Anand-Ivell, Ravinder; Mouritsen, Annette

2014-01-01

to luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), testosterone, inhibin B, and anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) during puberty in healthy boys.MethodsTen boys were included from the longitudinal part of the COPENHAGEN Puberty Study. Pubertal evaluation, including testicular volume, was performed...... and blood samples drawn every 6 months for 5 years. Serum concentrations of testosterone were determined by a newly developed LC-MS/MS method, and serum concentrations of INSL3, AMH, inhibin B, FSH and LH, respectively, were determined by validated immunoassays.ResultsSerum INSL3 levels increased...... progressively with increasing age, pubertal onset and testicular volume. In six of ten boys, LH increased prior to the first observed increase in INSL3. In the remaining four boys, the increase in LH and INSL3 was observed at the same examination. The increases in serum concentrations of LH, testosterone...

Sex steroids and brain structure in pubertal boys and girls: a mini-review of neuroimaging studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peper, J.S.; Hulshoff Pol, H.E.; Crone, E.A.; van Honk, J.

2011-01-01

Puberty is an important period during development hallmarked by increases in sex steroid levels. Human neuroimaging studies have consistently reported that in typically developing pubertal children, cortical and subcortical gray matter is decreasing, whereas white matter increases well into

Putative effects of endocrine disrupters on pubertal development in the human

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Teilmann, Grete; Juul, Anders; Skakkebaek, Niels E

2002-01-01

-called endocrine disrupters. Precocious puberty has been described in several case reports of accidental exposure to oestrogenic compounds in cosmetic products, food and pharmaceuticals. Local epidemics of premature thelarche have also been suggested to be linked to endocrine disrupters. Children adopted from...... developing countries to industrialized countries often develop precocious puberty. Not only precocious puberty, but also delayed puberty can, theoretically, be associated with exposure to endocrine disrupters. While it is very plausible that endocrine disrupters may disturb pubertal development...

Time-Predictable Virtual Memory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Puffitsch, Wolfgang; Schoeberl, Martin

2016-01-01

Virtual memory is an important feature of modern computer architectures. For hard real-time systems, memory protection is a particularly interesting feature of virtual memory. However, current memory management units are not designed for time-predictability and therefore cannot be used...... in such systems. This paper investigates the requirements on virtual memory from the perspective of hard real-time systems and presents the design of a time-predictable memory management unit. Our evaluation shows that the proposed design can be implemented efficiently. The design allows address translation...... and address range checking in constant time of two clock cycles on a cache miss. This constant time is in strong contrast to the possible cost of a miss in a translation look-aside buffer in traditional virtual memory organizations. Compared to a platform without a memory management unit, these two additional...

The relations of age and pubertal development with cortisol and daily stress in youth at clinical risk for psychosis.

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Moskow, Danielle M; Addington, Jean; Bearden, Carrie E; Cadenhead, Kristin S; Cornblatt, Barbara A; Heinssen, Robert; Mathalon, Daniel H; McGlashan, Thomas H; Perkins, Diana O; Seidman, Larry J; Tsuang, Ming T; Cannon, Tyrone D; Woods, Scott W; Walker, Elaine F

2016-04-01

Prodromal syndromes often begin in adolescence - a period of neurodevelopmental changes and heightened stress sensitivity. Research has shown elevated stress and cortisol in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. This cross-sectional study examined relations of age and pubertal status with cortisol and self-reported stress in healthy controls (HCs) and CHR adolescents. It was hypothesized that the relations of age and pubertal stage with cortisol and stress would be more pronounced in CHR youth. Participants were 93 HCs and 348 CHR adolescents from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS). At baseline, measures of stress (Daily Stress Inventory - DSI), Tanner stage (TS), and salivary cortisol were obtained. ANCOVA revealed increased DSI scores with age for both groups, and higher DSI scores in CHR adolescents than HCs, with a more pronounced difference for females. Contrary to prediction, with age controlled, HCs showed greater TS-related DSI increases. Analysis of cortisol showed no significant interactions, but a main effect of age and a trend toward higher cortisol in the CHR group. Correlations of cortisol with TS were higher in HC than CHR group. Stress measures increased with age in HC and CHR adolescents, and DSI scores also increased with TS in HCs. The results do not support a more pronounced age or TS increase in stress measures in CHR adolescents, but instead suggest that stress indices tend to be elevated earlier in adolescence in the CHR group. Potential determinants of findings and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Commuter’s Daily Time Allocation

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Fang Zong

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a model system to predict the time allocation in commuters’ daily activity-travel pattern. The departure time and the arrival time are estimated with Ordered Probit model and Support Vector Regression is introduced for travel time and activity duration prediction. Applied in a real-world time allocation prediction experiment, the model system shows a satisfactory level of prediction accuracy. This study provides useful insights into commuters’ activity-travel time allocation decision by identifying the important influences, and the results are readily applied to a wide range of transportation practice, such as travel information system, by providing reliable forecast for variations in travel demand over time. By introducing the Support Vector Regression, it also makes a methodological contribution in enhancing prediction accuracy of travel time and activity duration prediction.

Time-Predictable Computer Architecture

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Schoeberl Martin

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Today's general-purpose processors are optimized for maximum throughput. Real-time systems need a processor with both a reasonable and a known worst-case execution time (WCET. Features such as pipelines with instruction dependencies, caches, branch prediction, and out-of-order execution complicate WCET analysis and lead to very conservative estimates. In this paper, we evaluate the issues of current architectures with respect to WCET analysis. Then, we propose solutions for a time-predictable computer architecture. The proposed architecture is evaluated with implementation of some features in a Java processor. The resulting processor is a good target for WCET analysis and still performs well in the average case.

Puberty: Maturation, Timing and Adjustment, and Sexual Identity Developmental Milestones among Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Youth

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Grossman, Arnold H.; Foss, Alexander H.; D'Augelli, Anthony R.

2014-01-01

This study examined pubertal maturation, pubertal timing and outcomes, and the relationship of puberty and sexual identity developmental milestones among 507 lesbian, gay, and bisexual youth. The onset of menarche and spermarche occurred at the mean ages of 12.05 and 12.46, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in…

Time-predictable architectures

CERN Document Server

Rochange, Christine; Uhrig , Sascha

2014-01-01

Building computers that can be used to design embedded real-time systems is the subject of this title. Real-time embedded software requires increasingly higher performances. The authors therefore consider processors that implement advanced mechanisms such as pipelining, out-of-order execution, branch prediction, cache memories, multi-threading, multicorearchitectures, etc. The authors of this book investigate the timepredictability of such schemes.

Can We Predict Patient Wait Time?

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Pianykh, Oleg S; Rosenthal, Daniel I

2015-10-01

The importance of patient wait-time management and predictability can hardly be overestimated: For most hospitals, it is the patient queues that drive and define every bit of clinical workflow. The objective of this work was to study the predictability of patient wait time and identify its most influential predictors. To solve this problem, we developed a comprehensive list of 25 wait-related parameters, suggested in earlier work and observed in our own experiments. All parameters were chosen as derivable from a typical Hospital Information System dataset. The parameters were fed into several time-predicting models, and the best parameter subsets, discovered through exhaustive model search, were applied to a large sample of actual patient wait data. We were able to discover the most efficient wait-time prediction factors and models, such as the line-size models introduced in this work. Moreover, these models proved to be equally accurate and computationally efficient. Finally, the selected models were implemented in our patient waiting areas, displaying predicted wait times on the monitors located at the front desks. The limitations of these models are also discussed. Optimal regression models based on wait-line sizes can provide accurate and efficient predictions for patient wait time. Copyright © 2015 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pubertal Stress and Nutrition and their Association with Sexual Orientation and Height in the Add Health Data.

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Skorska, Malvina N; Bogaert, Anthony F

2017-01-01

A number of studies have indicated that gay men tend to be shorter, on average, than heterosexual men. Less evidence exists that lesbian women are taller, on average, than heterosexual women. The most popular explanation of the association between sexual orientation and height involves prenatal factors, such that, for example, gay men may have been exposed to lower than typical androgens during fetal development, which impacts their height and sexual orientation as adults. An alternative explanation involves stress, given that stress has been associated with sexual minority identification and with lower height. Another alternative explanation involves nutrition, although its relationship is less clear with sexual minority identification. Using the Add Health data, which is a large, nationally representative and longitudinal sample of American adolescents (n = 14,786), we tested a mediation model, such that sexual orientation → pubertal stress/nutrition → height. Within men, we found that gay men (n = 126) were shorter, on average, than heterosexual men (n = 6412). None of the 24 pubertal stress-related and 15 pubertal nutrition-related variables assessed in the Add Health data mediated the relationship between sexual orientation and height in men. Within women, lesbians (n = 75) did not differ significantly in stature compared to heterosexual women (n = 6267). Thus, prenatal mechanisms (e.g., hormones, maternal immune response) are likely better candidates for explaining the height difference between gay men and heterosexual men.

Pubertal development in children diagnosed with diabetes mellitus type 1 before puberty.

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Pereira, K C X; Pugliese, B S; Guimarães, M M; Gama, M P

2015-02-01

To investigate an association between pubertal development and timing of menarche with glycemic control, disease duration, and body mass index (BMI) in patients diagnosed with diabetes mellitus type 1 (DM1) before puberty. Retrospective study. The study was performed at the diabetes outpatient clinic of Instituto de Puericultura e Pediatria Martagão Gesteira--IPPMG of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro--UFRJ. A total of 131 children, 61 girls and 70 boys, diagnosed with DM1 before puberty participated in the study. The study investigated how age at puberty onset relates to mean glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) before puberty, BMI percentile, and disease duration; how puberty duration relates to mean HbA1c before and during puberty and to disease duration; and how timing of menarche relates to mean HbA1c before puberty, BMI percentile, and disease duration. Age at puberty onset was positively correlated with mean HbA1c before puberty (r = 0.204, R(2) = 0.042; P = .019) and disease duration (r = 0.451, R(2) = 0.203; P puberty later than those diagnosed more recently. Girls in higher BMI percentiles reached menarche sooner.

The Interplay between Gaze Following, Emotion Recognition, and Empathy across Adolescence; a Pubertal Dip in Performance?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Rooijen, R.; Junge, C.M.M.; Kemner, C.

2018-01-01

During puberty a dip in face recognition is often observed, possibly caused by heightened levels of gonadal hormones which in turn affects the re-organization of relevant cortical circuitry. In the current study we investigated whether a pubertal dip could be observed in three other abilities

Effect of timing on the outcomes of 1-phase nonextraction therapy of Class II malocclusion.

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Baccetti, Tiziano; Franchi, Lorenzo; Kim, Ludia H

2009-10-01

The aim of this cephalometric study was to evaluate the role of timing in relation to skeletal maturity on the outcomes of nonextraction comprehensive Class II therapy. Three samples of patients with Class II Division 1 malocclusion were treated with headgear combined with fixed appliances and Class II elastics. Lateral cephalograms were taken of all subjects before therapy (T1) and at an average interval of 6 months after therapy (T2). The first sample (23 subjects) was treated before the pubertal growth spurt, the second sample (24 subjects) received therapy during the pubertal growth spurt, and the third sample (13 subjects) was treated at a postpubertal stage of development. The average T1 to T2 interval was approximately 30 months for all patients, with an average treatment duration of 24 months. Longitudinal observations of a group of 17 subjects with untreated Class II malocclusions were compared with the treated groups at the 3 skeletal maturation intervals with nonparametric statistics. Class II treatment before or during the pubertal growth spurt induced significant favorable skeletal changes (restricted maxillary advancement in prepubertal patients and enhanced mandibular growth in pubertal patients). Patients treated after the pubertal growth spurt had only significant dentoalveolar changes. The greatest amount of dentoskeletal correction of Class II malocclusion with 1-phase nonextraction treatment occurred in patients treated during the pubertal growth spurt.

On the Scalability of Time-predictable Chip-Multiprocessing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Puffitsch, Wolfgang; Schoeberl, Martin

2012-01-01

Real-time systems need a time-predictable execution platform to be able to determine the worst-case execution time statically. In order to be time-predictable, several advanced processor features, such as out-of-order execution and other forms of speculation, have to be avoided. However, just using...... simple processors is not an option for embedded systems with high demands on computing power. In order to provide high performance and predictability we argue to use multiprocessor systems with a time-predictable memory interface. In this paper we present the scalability of a Java chip......-multiprocessor system that is designed to be time-predictable. Adding time-predictable caches is mandatory to achieve scalability with a shared memory multi-processor system. As Java bytecode retains information about the nature of memory accesses, it is possible to implement a memory hierarchy that takes...

The reliability of dental x-ray film in assessment of MP3 stages of the pubertal growth spurt.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdel-Kader, H M

1998-10-01

The main object of this clinical study is to provide a simple and practical method to assess the pubertal growth spurt stages of a subject by recording MP3 stages with the dental periapical radiograph and the standard dental x-ray machine.

Distributed pubertal growth in girls after acute leukemia: a relative growth hormone insufficiency with late presentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moell, C.

1988-01-01

Long-term follow-up of growth and development after acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) in childhood has previously been limited to the prepubertal period. This study describes pubertal growth, final height and the spontaneous secretion of GH in girls treated for ALL, including CNS irradiation with 24 GY. Ten girls, treated earlier for ALL, experienced the menarche at a mean age of 12.2 years. This is significantly earlier than the mean for Swedish girls. Prepubertal growth was near normal after the end of therapy for leukaemia. Mean final height was -1.7 SD, which is 1.5 SD less than at onset and 1.0 SD less than 1 year after the end of treatment. Thirteen other girls had a blunted spontaneous secretion of GH, several years after treatment for ALL; there was no increase in GH secretion during puberty. These results suggest that girls who have been treated for ALL, including CNS irradiation, have a relative GH insufficiency. This insufficiency becomes obvious only when girls cannot respond to the increased need for GH during the pubertal spurt.

Distributed pubertal growth in girls after acute leukemia: a relative growth hormone insufficiency with late presentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moell, C.

1988-01-01

Long-term follow-up of growth and development after acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) in childhood has previously been limited to the prepubertal period. This study describes pubertal growth, final height and the spontaneous secretion of GH in girls treated for ALL, including CNS irradiation with 24 GY. Ten girls, treated earlier for ALL, experienced the menarche at a mean age of 12.2 years. This is significantly earlier than the mean for Swedish girls. Prepubertal growth was near normal after the end of therapy for leukaemia. Mean final height was -1.7 SD, which is 1.5 SD less than at onset and 1.0 SD less than 1 year after the end of treatment. Thirteen other girls had a blunted spontaneous secretion of GH, several years after treatment for ALL; there was no increase in GH secretion during puberty. These results suggest that girls who have been treated for ALL, including CNS irradiation, have a relative GH insufficiency. This insufficiency becomes obvious only when girls cannot respond to the increased need for GH during the pubertal spurt. (author)

Mobile phone radiation during pubertal development has no effect on testicular histology in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Tumkaya, Levent; Kalkan, Yildiray; Bas, Orhan; Yilmaz, Adnan

2016-02-01

Mobile phones are extensively used throughout the world. There is a growing concern about the possible public health hazards posed by electromagnetic radiation emitted from mobile phones. Potential health risk applies particularly to the most intensive mobile phone users-typically, young people. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of mobile phone exposure to the testes, by assessing the histopathological and biochemical changes in the testicular germ cells of rats during pubertal development. A total of 12 male Sprague Dawley rats were used. The study group (n = 6) was exposed to a mobile phone for 1 h a day for 45 days, while the control group (n = 6) remained unexposed. The testes were processed with routine paraffin histology and sectioned. They were stained with hematoxylin-eosin, caspase 3, and Ki-67 and then photographed. No changes were observed between the groups (p > 0.05). The interstitial connective tissue and cells of the exposed group were of normal morphology. No abnormalities in the histological appearance of the seminiferous tubules, including the spermatogenic cycle stage, were observed. Our study demonstrated that mobile phones with a low specific absorption rate have no harmful effects on pubertal rat testicles. © The Author(s) 2013.

Vegetable and Fruit Intakes Are Associated with hs-CRP Levels in Pre-Pubertal Girls

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Pilar Navarro

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The influence of diet on inflammation in children remains unclear. We aimed to analyze the influence of diet on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP levels in a pre-pubertal population free of other influences that may affect hs-CRP levels. We determined hs-CRP levels in 571 six- to eight-year-old children using an hs-CRP ELISA kit. Information on food and nutrient intake was obtained through a food-frequency questionnaire. Overall dietary quality was assessed using the Healthy Eating Index (HEI. We found that girls in the highest tertile of hs-CRP levels had a higher intake of saturated fatty acid, and lower intakes of fiber and vitamin E and a lower HEI score when compared to those in tertiles 1 and 2. We also observed a significant decrease in fruit and vegetable intakes by hs-CRP tertile. Factor analysis showed that a dietary pattern that was loaded most strongly with vegetable, fruit, fiber and vitamin A and E intakes correlated negatively (−0.132, p < 0.05 with hs-CRP. No such association was found in boys. In conclusion, our data show that girls with a poorer quality diet show higher hs-CRP levels already at a pre-pubertal age.

Treatment timing for an orthopedic approach to patients with increased vertical dimension.

Science.gov (United States)

Baccetti, Tiziano; Franchi, Lorenzo; Schulz, Scott O; McNamara, James A

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the role of treatment timing on the effectiveness of vertical-pull chincup (V-PCC) therapy in conjunction with a bonded rapid maxillary expander (RME) in growing subjects with mild-to-severe hyperdivergent facial patterns. The records of 39 subjects treated with a bonded RME combined with a V-PCC were compared with 29 untreated subjects with similar vertical skeletal disharmonies. Lateral cephalograms were analyzed before (T1) and after treatment or observation (T2). Both the treated and the untreated samples were divided into prepubertal and pubertal groups on the basis of cervical vertebral maturation (prepubertal treated group, 21 subjects; pubertal treated group, 18 subjects; prepubertal control group, 15 subjects; pubertal control group, 14 subjects). Mean change differences from T2 to T1 were compared in the 2 prepubertal and the 2 pubertal groups with independent-sample t tests. No statistically significant differences between the 2 prepubertal groups were found for any cephalometric skeletal measures from T1 to T2. When compared with the untreated pubertal sample, the group treated with the RME and V-PCC at puberty showed a statistically significant reduction in the inclination of the mandibular plane to the Frankfort horizontal (-2.2 mm), a statistically significant reduction in the inclination of the condylar axis to the mandibular plane (-2.2 degrees), and statistically significant supplementary growth of the mandibular ramus (1.7 mm). Treatment of increased vertical dimension with the RME and V-PCC protocol appears to produce better results during the pubertal growth spurt than before puberty, although the absolute amount of correction in the vertical skeletal parameters is limited.

Pubertal Onset in Boys and Girls Is Influenced by Pubertal Timing of Both Parents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wohlfahrt-Veje, Christine; Mouritsen, Annette; Hagen, Casper P

2016-01-01

children in a longitudinal cohort study. Information on parental timing of puberty (earlier, comparable to, or later compared to peers) and menarche age was retrieved from questionnaires. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 672 girls and 846 boys. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age at onset of pubic hair (PH2+), breasts (B2...

Bone Density and Timing of Puberty in a Longitudinal Study of Girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Cattran, Ashley M; Kalkwarf, Heidi J; Pinney, Susan M; Huang, Bin; Biro, Frank M

2015-06-01

Primary: To examine the relationship between relative timing of puberty with bone mineral density (BMD) in a group of adolescent girls; Secondary: To determine if family history of breast cancer was associated with bone mineral density. Longitudinal study of girls recruited between 6 and 7 years of age seen every 6 months for 5 years, and subsequently seen annually. BMD of the lumbar spine was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at mean age of 12.5 years; age- and race-specific Z-scores (BMDz) were calculated. Age of pubertal onset was determined by the first occurrence of breast stage 2, and participants were categorized into race-specific early, on-time and late puberty onset groups. BMDz by timing of pubertal onset, and by family history of breast cancer. DXA scans were performed on 227 study participants, and a second scan was performed on 114 participants 2 years later. Age of onset of puberty was inversely correlated with BMDz, r = -0.31 (P puberty was associated with higher BMD. The high shared variance of BMD and timing of pubertal onset implies an underlying biologic basis. Copyright © 2015 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Secular Trends on Birth Parameters, Growth, and Pubertal Timing in Girls with Turner Syndrome

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Joachim Woelfle

2018-02-01

Full Text Available BackgroundWhether children with chromosomal disorders of growth and puberty are affected by secular trends (STs as observed in the general population remains unanswered, but this question has relevance for expectations of spontaneous development and treatment responses.ObjectivesThe aim of the study was to evaluate STs in birth parameters, growth, and pubertal development in girls with Turner syndrome (TS.Study designRetrospective analysis of KIGS data (Pfizer International Growth Database. We included all TS patients who entered KIGS between 1987 and 2012 and were born from 1975 to 2004, who were prepubertal and growth treatment naïve at first entry (total number: 7,219. Pretreatment height and ages at the start of treatment were compared across 5-year birth year groups, with subgroup analyses stratified by induced or spontaneous puberty start.ResultsWe observed significant STs across the birth year groups for birth weight [+0.18 SD score (SDS, p < 0.001], pretreatment height at mean age 8 years (+0.73 SDS, p < 0.001, height at the start of growth hormone (GH therapy (+0.38 SDS, p < 0.001 and start of puberty (+0.42 SDS, p < 0.001. Spontaneous puberty onset increased from 15 to 30% (p < 0.001. Mean age at the start of GH treatment decreased from 10.8 to 7.4 years (−3.4 years; p < 0.001, and substantial declines were seen in ages at onset of spontaneous and induced puberty (−2.0 years; p < 0.001 and menarche (−2.1 years; p < 0.001.ConclusionEnvironmental changes leading to increased height and earlier and also more common, spontaneous puberty are applicable in TS as in normal girls. In addition, greater awareness for TS may underlie trends to earlier start of GH therapy and induction of puberty at a more physiological age.

Relationships of Pubertal Development among Early Adolescents to Sexual and Nonsexual Risk Behaviors and Caregivers' Parenting Behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Koo, Helen P.; Rose, Allison; Bhaskar, Brinda; Walker, Leslie R.

2012-01-01

Using a school-based sample of fifth graders (mean age = 10.38, SD = 0.66) and their parents (N = 408) from Washington, D.C., the authors examine associations of pubertal development with early adolescents' sexual and nonsexual risk behaviors and their caregivers' parenting behaviors and of these risk behaviors with parenting behaviors. Results…

Long-time predictions in nonlinear dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Szebehely, V.

1980-01-01

It is known that nonintegrable dynamical systems do not allow precise predictions concerning their behavior for arbitrary long times. The available series solutions are not uniformly convergent according to Poincare's theorem and numerical integrations lose their meaningfulness after the elapse of arbitrary long times. Two approaches are the use of existing global integrals and statistical methods. This paper presents a generalized method along the first approach. As examples long-time predictions in the classical gravitational satellite and planetary problems are treated.

Androgenetic Alopecia: A Chronic or Pubertal Onset Disease Retarded by Blood Donation

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Mohammad Reza Dayer

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Background Androgenetic alopecia is the main cause of hair loss and common baldness that affects psychological more than physiological aspects of people’s lives. Studies have shown that this multi factorial disorder is initiated by androgens secretion in pubertal period, minerals limitations, autoimmunity, mental stress, genetic predisposition and some alterations in hematological factors. Objectives The aim of this study was to evaluate the involvement of hematologic parameters in this disease using a case control study design. Methods In this case-controlled study, two groups each of 80 individuals with androgenetic alopecia were voluntarily included in the study based on their medical histories and clinical examinations and subjected to blood tests for routine hematological parameters. The results were then compared and analyzed using SPSS version 16.0. Results Our findings indicated that all the parameters for both groups fall in normal ranges (Mean ± SD but the values for RBC, HGB, MCH, MCHC, WBC, LYM and TIBC were significantly higher in patients than in normal group. The average counts of PLT was significantly lower in patients compared with the normal group. Otherwise, Person’s tests for statistical correlations between two groups indicated that the pattern of correlations were abnormal in patients. Conclusions Our findings indicated the presence of a chronic, immunologic and slowly progressing disorder that causes hair loss, the disease which is in turn triggered in pubertal period upon androgen secretion. We suggest, therefore, that the conditions may be ameliorated by prescription of iron tablet, platelet transfusion and anti-inflammation therapy.

Uncertainties in container failure time predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williford, R.E.

1990-01-01

Stochastic variations in the local chemical environment of a geologic waste repository can cause corresponding variations in container corrosion rates and failure times, and thus in radionuclide release rates. This paper addresses how well the future variations in repository chemistries must be known in order to predict container failure times that are bounded by a finite time period within the repository lifetime. Preliminary results indicate that a 5000 year scatter in predicted container failure times requires that repository chemistries be known to within ±10% over the repository lifetime. These are small uncertainties compared to current estimates. 9 refs., 3 figs

Serum inhibin B in healthy pubertal and adolescent boys

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, A M; Juul, A; Petersen, J H

1997-01-01

correlated strongly with age, and when the effect of age was taken into account, only the partial correlation between inhibin B and LH/testosterone remained statistically significant. At stage II of puberty, the positive partial correlation between inhibin B and LH/testosterone was still present. At stage......Inhibin B levels were measured in serum from 400 healthy Danish prepubertal, pubertal, and adolescent males, aged 6-20 yr, in a cross-sectional study using a recently developed immunoassay that is specific for inhibin B, the physiologically important inhibin form in men. In addition, serum levels...... of FSH, LH, testosterone, and estradiol levels were measured. Serum levels of inhibin B, FSH, LH, testosterone, and estradiol all increased significantly between stages I and II of puberty. From stage II of puberty the inhibin B level was relatively constant, whereas the FSH level continued to increase...

Assessment of insulin like growth factor-1 and IGF binding protein-3 in healthy Indian girls from Delhi and their correlation with age, pubertal status, obesity and thyroid hormonal status.

Science.gov (United States)

Marwaha, Raman K; Garg, M K; Gupta, Sushil; Khurana, A K; Narang, Archna; Shukla, Manoj; Arora, Preeti; Chadha, Aditi; Nayak, Deb Datta; Manchanda, R K

2017-07-26

Population specific data and influence of sub-clinical hypothyroidism on insulin like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) and its binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) in Indian children is lacking. This study was undertaken to evaluate serum IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 and their correlation with age, gender, pubertal status and thyroid functions. A total of 840 apparently healthy school girls aged 6-18 years, were recruited for the study and underwent assessment of height, weight, body mass index, pubertal status and serum T3, T4, TSH, IGF-1, IGFBP-3 and IGF-1/IGFBP-3 molar ratio. The mean serum levels of IGF-1, IGFBP-3 levels and IGF-1/IGFBP-3 molar ratio were 381.8±240.5 ng/mL, 4.19±2.08 μg/mL and 40.5±37.2%, respectively. The serum IGF-1 and IGF-1/IGFBP-3 molar ratio increased significantly (pIGF-1 and molar ratio of IGF-1/IGFBP-3 increased significantly with pubertal maturation from stage 1 to 3 and were higher in overweight girls compared to normal weight and obese girls. The growth factors were no different in girls with or without subclinical hypothyroidism. There was no significant impact of age on IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 in pre-pubertal girls. A sudden marked increase at 11 years followed by a gradual rise in growth factors till 16 years is indicative of pubertal initiation and maturation. Subclinical hypothyroidism did not influence growth factors in girls.

Assessing the Predictability of Scheduled-Vehicle Travel Times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tiesyte, Dalia; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

2009-01-01

One of the most desired and challenging services in collective transport systems is the real-time prediction of the near-future travel times of scheduled vehicles, especially public buses, thus improving the experience of the transportation users, who may be able to better schedule their travel......, and also enabling system operators to perform real-time monitoring. While travel-time prediction has been researched extensively during the past decade, the accuracies of existing techniques fall short of what is desired, and proposed mathematical prediction models are often not transferable to other...... systems because the properties of the travel-time-related data of vehicles are highly context-dependent, making the models difficult to fit. We propose a framework for evaluating various predictability types of the data independently of the model, and we also compare predictability analysis results...

A Time-predictable Stack Cache

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abbaspour, Sahar; Brandner, Florian; Schoeberl, Martin

2013-01-01

Real-time systems need time-predictable architectures to support static worst-case execution time (WCET) analysis. One architectural feature, the data cache, is hard to analyze when different data areas (e.g., heap allocated and stack allocated data) share the same cache. This sharing leads to le...... of a cache for stack allocated data. Our port of the LLVM C++ compiler supports the management of the stack cache. The combination of stack cache instructions and the hardware implementation of the stack cache is a further step towards timepredictable architectures.......Real-time systems need time-predictable architectures to support static worst-case execution time (WCET) analysis. One architectural feature, the data cache, is hard to analyze when different data areas (e.g., heap allocated and stack allocated data) share the same cache. This sharing leads to less...... precise results of the cache analysis part of the WCET analysis. Splitting the data cache for different data areas enables composable data cache analysis. The WCET analysis tool can analyze the accesses to these different data areas independently. In this paper we present the design and implementation...

Age, puberty, body dissatisfaction, and physical activity decline in adolescents. Results of the German Health Interview and Examination Survey (KiGGS

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Finne Emily

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Physical activity (PA shows a marked decline during adolescence. Some studies have pointed to pubertal status or timing as possible PA determinants in this age group. Furthermore, it was supposed that the impact of pubertal changes on PA might be mediated by psychological variables like body dissatisfaction (BDS. Methods The 11- to 17-year-old subsample of the German Health Interview and Examination Survey (KiGGS was used (n = 6 813; 51.3% male, response rate = 66.6%. Through sex-specific sequential multinomial logistic regressions we analysed the univariate and independent associations of chronological age, absolute pubertal status, relative pubertal timing, and BDS with the frequency of PA. Results Chronological age showed a significantly negative association with PA in both sexes, independent of puberty. The odds of inactivity in contrast to nearly daily PA increased about 70% in boys and 35% in girls for each year of age, respectively. Adjusted for age and other possible confounders, inactivity was significantly less likely for boys in late pubertal stages (OR = 0.27, 95% CI = 0.09-0.78. The risk of inactivity was more than doubled in boys maturing earlier than peers in terms of relative pubertal timing (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.36-3.56. No clear significant puberty effects were found in girls, but the inactivity was more likely for those with irregular menstruation (OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.06-2.75. BDS also contributed to the prediction of PA in both sexes. It partially mediated puberty effects in boys but not in girls. Conclusions Overall, chronological age was a far more important predictor of PA in German adolescents than absolute pubertal status or relative pubertal timing. Further possible explanatory variables like sociocultural influences, social support or increasing time requirements for education should be analysed in conjunction with chronological age in future studies.

Interaction of Pubertal Development and Metabolic Control in Adolescents with Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

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M. Plamper

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background. In T1DM, delayed pubertal development and reduced final height are associated with inadequate metabolic control. Objective. To assess whether T1DM affects pubertal growth spurt and whether metabolic control during puberty is gender-related. Methods. Using a large multicentre database, longitudinal data from 1294 patients were analysed. Inclusion criteria: complete records of height and HbA1c from the age of seven to 16 years. Exclusion criteria: other significant chronic diseases and medications, T1DM duration less than three months, and initial BMI 97th percentile. Results. Growth velocity (GV was impaired with a significant reduction of peak GV by 1.2 cm in boys. HbA1c increase during male puberty was lower except for a period of 1.5 years. The highest HbA1c increase in boys coincided with maximum growth spurt. In girls, the highest HbA1c increase was observed during late puberty. Even though there is impaired GV, both sexes reach a height at 16 years of age which corresponds to the background population height. Conclusion. Worsening of metabolic control is sex-discordant and associated with gender-specific alterations of GV. However, the vast majority of boys and girls with T1DM seems to reach normal height at the age of 16 years.

Real-time travel time prediction framework for departure time and route advice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Calvert, S.C.; Snelder, M.; Bakri, T.; Heijligers, B.; Knoop, V.L.

2015-01-01

Heavily used urban networks remain a challenge for travel time prediction because traffic flow is rarely homogeneous and is also subject to a wide variety of disturbances. Various models, some of which use traffic flow theory and some of which are data driven, have been developed to predict traffic

Neck circumference as a new anthropometric indicator for prediction of insulin resistance and components of metabolic syndrome in adolescents: Brazilian Metabolic Syndrome Study

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Cleliani de Cassia da Silva

2014-06-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the correlation between neck circumference and insulin resistance and components of metabolic syndrome in adolescents with different adiposity levels and pubertal stages, as well as to determine the usefulness of neck circumference to predict insulin resistance in adolescents.METHODS:Cross-sectional study with 388 adolescents of both genders from ten to 19 years old. The adolescents underwent anthropometric and body composition assessment, including neck and waist circumferences, and biochemical evaluation. The pubertal stage was obtained by self-assessment, and the blood pressure, by auscultation. Insulin resistance was evaluated by the Homeostasis Model Assessment-Insulin Resistance. The correlation between two variables was evaluated by partial correlation coefficient adjusted for the percentage of body fat and pubertal stage. The performance of neck circumference to identify insulin resistance was tested by Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve.RESULTS: After the adjustment for percentage body fat and pubertal stage, neck circumference correlated with waist circumference, blood pressure, triglycerides and markers of insulin resistance in both genders.CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that the neck circumference is a useful tool for the detection of insulin resistance and changes in the indicators of metabolic syndrome in adolescents. The easiness of application and low cost of this measure may allow its use in Public Health services.

Ovarian function following pelvic irradiation in prepubertal and pubertal girls and young adult women

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schuck, A.; Hamelmann, V.; Braemswig, J.H.

2005-01-01

Purpose: To analyze the effect of pelvic radiotherapy on ovarian function in prepubertal and pubertal girls and young adult women. Patients and methods: In a retrospective monoinstitutional analysis, patients 15 Gy to the ovaries developed hormone failure. In one case of a patient receiving an ovarian dose of 15 Gy, hormone failure was not found. In case of pelvic irradiation excluding at least one ovary, approximately half of the patients developed ovarian dysfunction, probably also due to the effects of polychemotherapy. (orig.)

[Relevant factors of early puberty timing in urban primary schools in Chongqing].

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Yan; Liu, Qin; Wen, Yi; Liu, Shudan; Lei, Xun; Wang, Hong

2016-05-01

To investigate the status of puberty timing and relevant factors of early puberty timing in children from grade one to four in urban primary schools of Chongqing. According to the purposive sample method, four urban primary schools in Chongqing were selected and of which 1471 children from grade one to four who have obtained informed consent were recruited. Questionnaire survey on social-demographic characteristics and family environment (e.g., age, parents' relationship, diet and lifestyle, etc), and Pubertal Development Scale (PDS) survey and physical examination (measurements of height, weight, pubertal development status, etc) were conducted. P25, P50, P75 ages of each important pubertal event were calculated by probit regression. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to analyze relevant factors. The detection rate of early puberty timing was 17.7%, and the median ages of the onset of breast and testicular development were 10.77 and 11.48 years old, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression showed that early puberty timing occurred more likely in girls than in boys (OR = 0.561, 95% CI 0.406-0.774), and bad relationship between parents (OR = 1.320, 95% CI 1.007-1.729) and hair-products-use (OR = 1.685, 95%, CI 1.028-2.762) were risk factors of early puberty timing. Early onset of puberty in urban Chongqing is still exist. Gender, parents' relationship, and hair-products-use have an essential impact on early puberty timing.

Taxi Time Prediction at Charlotte Airport Using Fast-Time Simulation and Machine Learning Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hanbong

2016-01-01

Accurate taxi time prediction is required for enabling efficient runway scheduling that can increase runway throughput and reduce taxi times and fuel consumptions on the airport surface. Currently NASA and American Airlines are jointly developing a decision-support tool called Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) that assists airport ramp controllers to make gate pushback decisions and improve the overall efficiency of airport surface traffic. In this presentation, we propose to use Linear Optimized Sequencing (LINOS), a discrete-event fast-time simulation tool, to predict taxi times and provide the estimates to the runway scheduler in real-time airport operations. To assess its prediction accuracy, we also introduce a data-driven analytical method using machine learning techniques. These two taxi time prediction methods are evaluated with actual taxi time data obtained from the SARDA human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation for Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) using various performance measurement metrics. Based on the taxi time prediction results, we also discuss how the prediction accuracy can be affected by the operational complexity at this airport and how we can improve the fast time simulation model before implementing it with an airport scheduling algorithm in a real-time environment.

Diagnostic Markers of Primary Infertility in Women of Reproductive Age with Hypothalamic Dysfunction in the Pubertal Period

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Irina V. Zhukovets

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of the study was to assess fertility in women of reproductive age with hypothalamic dysfunction (HD in the pubertal period and to determine the diagnostic significance of pro-inflammatory (TNF-α and IL-1β, anti-inflammatory cytokine (IL-10 and NF-kB activity in the diagnosis of primary infertility in these women. Materials and Methods: Fertility was assessed in 86 women of reproductive age with HD in the pubertal period. A comparative characteristic of fertile women (Group 1, n=46 and primary infertility women (Group 2, n=21 with HD in the pubertal period was performed. FPG and FPI were determined after 8 to 12 hours of fasting. Serum IRI concentrations were measured using an ELISA kit. The levels of TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-10 were determined in the venous blood serum after a 12-hour fasting, as well as in UA on the 21st day of the menstrual cycle using ELISA kits. The activity of NF-kB was determined in UA on the 21st day of the menstrual cycle using an enzyme immunoassay kit. Results: BMI in Group 1 was significantly lower than in Group 2: 22.63±2.68 kg/m2 versus 27.05±4.03kg/m2 (p=0.000. WC in women of Group 1 was 66.11±5.66cm versus 78.52±10.54cm in Group 2 (p = 0.000; WC >80cm was found in 2(4.4% and 14(66.7% women, respectively (p = 0.000. The average levels of FPG and FPI were significantly higher in Group 2. Serum levels of TNF-α and IL-1β in Group 2 were significantly higher than in Group 1. The serum level of anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10 was significantly lower in Group 2; accordingly, the TNF-α/IL-10 ratio in Group 2 was 1.8 times higher than in Group 1. The IL-1β level in UA (P=0.000 and the TNF-α/IL-10 ratio (P=0.02 were significantly higher in women of Group 2 than Group 1, which indicated the pronounced inflammatory effects of TNF-α in the endometrium. Imbalance in the production of pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory factors indicated the activation of the Th-1 immune response with the formation of the

ISOL yield predictions from holdup-time measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spejewski, Eugene H.; Carter, H Kennon; Mervin, Brenden T.; Prettyman, Emily S.; Kronenberg, Andreas; Stracener, Daniel W

2008-01-01

A formalism based on a simple model is derived to predict ISOL yields for all isotopes of a given element based on a holdup-time measurement of a single isotope of that element. Model predictions, based on parameters obtained from holdup-time measurements, are compared to independently-measured experimental values

Pubertal-related changes in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis reactivity and cytokine secretion in response to an immunological stressor.

Science.gov (United States)

Goble, K H; Bain, Z A; Padow, V A; Lui, P; Klein, Z A; Romeo, R D

2011-02-01

Pubertal development is marked by profound changes in stress reactivity. For example, following a brief stressor, such as foot shock, ether inhalation or restraint, prepubertal rats display a prolonged adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) and corticosterone response that takes twice as long to return to baseline compared to adults. Pubertal-related differences in the recovery of the hormonal stress response following a more protracted systemic stressor, such as an immunological challenge, have not yet been investigated. Moreover, it is unclear whether an immunological stressor leads to a differential cytokine response in animals before and after pubertal maturation. To examine these issues, we used a single injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 0.1 mg/kg) to induce a hormonal stress and innate immune response and measured plasma ACTH, corticosterone, and the pro-inflammatory cytokines interleukin (IL)-1β and IL-6 in prepubertal and adult male rats 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, or 24 h after LPS exposure. In a follow-up experiment, we assessed neural activation, as indexed by FOS immunohistochemistry, in the paraventricular nucleus of the hypothalamus (PVN) in prepubertal and adult males 0, 4, 8, or 24 h after a 0.1 mg/kg injection of LPS. By contrast to the prolonged response observed in prepubertal animals following a variety of acute stressors, we found that corticosterone and IL-6 responses induced by LPS recover toward baseline faster in prepubertal compared to adult rats. Along with these different peripheral responses, we also found that LPS-induced neural activation in the PVN of prepubertal animals showed a faster return to baseline compared to adults. Together, these data indicate that prepubertal and adult animals react in distinct ways, both peripherally and centrally, to an immunological stressor. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Neuroendocrinology © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Time evolution of predictability of epidemics on networks

Science.gov (United States)

Holme, Petter; Takaguchi, Taro

2015-04-01

Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak converge to deterministic functions of time. Our goal in this paper is to shed some light on this apparent discrepancy. We measure the diversity of (and, thus, the predictability of) outbreak sizes and extinction times as functions of time given different scenarios of the amount of information available. Under the assumption of perfect information—i.e., knowing the state of each individual with respect to the disease—the predictability decreases exponentially, or faster, with time. The decay is slowest for intermediate values of the per-contact transmission probability. With a weaker assumption on the information available, assuming that we know only the fraction of currently infectious, recovered, or susceptible individuals, the predictability also decreases exponentially most of the time. There are, however, some peculiar regions in this scenario where the predictability decreases. In other words, to predict its final size with a given accuracy, we would need increasingly more information about the outbreak.

Sulforaphane attenuates di-N-butylphthalate-induced reproductive damage in pubertal mice: Involvement of the Nrf2-antioxidant system.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Xu-Ping; Tang, Jing-Yuan; Xu, Zhen; Han, Peng; Qin, Zhi-Qiang; Yang, Cheng-di; Wang, Shang-Qian; Tang, Min; Wang, Wei; Qin, Chao; Xu, Yang; Shen, Bai-Xin; Zhou, Wei-Min; Zhang, Wei

2017-07-01

di-N-butylphthalate (DBP) is a ubiquitous environmental pollutant used for plastic coating and in the cosmetics industry. It has toxic effects on body health, especially the male reproductive system. Here, we investigated the effects of DBP on the male reproductive system of pubertal mice and explored the protective role of sulforaphane (SFN). The results showed that DBP significantly reduced the anogenital distance, testicular weight, sperm count and motility, and plasma and testicular testosterone levels and significantly increased the oxidative stress, sperm abnormalities, and testicular cell apoptosis. SFN supplementation ameliorated these effects. After DBP stimulation, the transcription factor nuclear factor erythroid-related factor 2 (Nrf2) was adaptively increased together with its target genes, such as HO-1 and NQO1. Upregulation of Nrf2 by SFN reduced the DBP-mediated intracellular oxidative toxicity and also increased testosterone secretion and spermatogenesis, which were decreased by DBP. These findings indicate that SFN can attenuate DBP-induced reproductive damage in pubertal mice via Nrf2-associated pathways. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Perinatal testosterone contributes to mid-to-post pubertal sex differences in risk for binge eating in male and female rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Culbert, Kristen M; Sinclair, Elaine B; Hildebrandt, Britny A; Klump, Kelly L; Sisk, Cheryl L

2018-02-01

Exposure to testosterone early in life may contribute to sex differences and pubertal changes in risk for eating pathology (i.e., females > males, after pubertal onset). Specifically, perinatal testosterone permanently alters brain structure/function and drives the masculinization of several sex-differentiated behaviors. However, the effects of perinatal testosterone are often not evident until puberty when increases in gonadal hormones activate the expression of sex typical behavior, including eating behaviors (e.g., chow intake; saccharin preference) in rodents. Despite perinatal testosterone's masculinizing effects on general feeding behavior, it remains unknown if perinatal testosterone exposure contributes to sex differences in pathological eating. The current study addressed this gap by examining whether perinatal testosterone exposure decreases risk for binge eating proneness after pubertal onset in male and female rats. Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 40 oil-treated control females; n = 39 testosterone-treated females; n = 40 oil-treated control males) were followed longitudinally across pre-to-early puberty, mid-to-late puberty, and adulthood. The binge eating prone (BEP)/binge eating resistant (BER) rodent model was used to identify individual differences in binge eating proneness across the dimensional spectrum. As expected, testosterone-treated females and control males showed masculinized (i.e., lower) risk for binge eating as compared to control females, but only after midpuberty. These animal data are significant in suggesting that perinatal testosterone exposure may protect against binge eating and underlie sex differences in binge eating prevalence during and after puberty. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Association of insulin-like growth factor-1 and IGF binding protein-3 with 25-hydroxy vitamin D in pre-pubertal and adolescent Indian girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Marwaha, Ramank K; Garg, M K; Gupta, Sushil; Ganie, Mohd Ashraf; Gupta, Nandita; Narang, Archna; Shukla, Manoj; Arora, Preeti; Singh, Annie; Chadha, Aditi; Mithal, Ambrish

2018-03-28

There is a high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency (VDD) in India. Molecular mechanisms suggest a strong relationship between vitamin D and growth factors. However, there is a paucity of literature with regard to a relationship between insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) and vitamin D particularly in subjects with VDD. The objective of the study was to assess the relationship between growth factors and serum vitamin D-parathormone (PTH) status in school girls and study the impact of vitamin D supplementation on growth factors in pre-pubertal girls with VDD. Our study subjects were apparently healthy school girls aged 6-18 years. The baseline height, weight, body mass index (BMI), pubertal status, serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25OHD), PTH, IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 were assessed in 847 girls aged 6-18 years and in 190 pre-pubertal girls with VDD following supplementation. The mean age, BMI and serum 25OHD of girls were 11.5±3.2 years, 18.7±4.8 kg/m2 and 9.9±5.6 ng/mL, respectively. VDD was observed in 94.6% of girls. Unadjusted serum IGF-1 levels and IGF-1/IGFBP-3 molar ratio were significantly higher in girls with severe VDD as compared to girls with mild-to-moderate VDD. However, these differences disappeared when adjusted for age, height or sexual maturation. The serum IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 levels increased significantly post supplementation with vitamin D. There were no differences in serum IGF-1 levels and the IGF-1/IGFBP-3 molar ratio among VDD categories when adjusted for age, height and sexual maturation in girls. Vitamin D supplementation resulted in a significant increase in serum IGF-1 levels in VDD pre-pubertal girls.

Time series prediction of apple scab using meteorological ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A new prediction model for the early warning of apple scab is proposed in this study. The method is based on artificial intelligence and time series prediction. The infection period of apple scab was evaluated as the time series prediction model instead of summation of wetness duration. Also, the relations of different ...

Time-Predictable Communication on a Time-Division Multiplexing Network-on-Chip Multicore

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Rasmus Bo

This thesis presents time-predictable inter-core communication on a multicore platform with a time-division multiplexing (TDM) network-on-chip (NoC) for hard real-time systems. The thesis is structured as a collection of papers that contribute within the areas of: reconfigurable TDM NoCs, static...... TDM scheduling, and time-predictable inter-core communication. More specifically, the work presented in this thesis investigates the interaction between hardware and software involved in time-predictable inter-core communication on the multicore platform. The thesis presents: a new generation...... of the Argo NoC network interface (NI) that supports instantaneous reconfiguration, a TDM traffic scheduler that generates virtual circuit (VC) configurations for the Argo NoC, and software functions for two types of intercore communication. The new generation of the Argo NoC adds the capability...

Early Pubertal Maturation and Internalizing Problems in Adolescence: Sex Differences in the Role of Cortisol Reactivity to Interpersonal Stress

Science.gov (United States)

Natsuaki, Misaki N.; Klimes-Dougan, Bonnie; Ge, Xiaojia; Shirtcliff, Elizabeth A.; Hastings, Paul D.; Zahn-Waxler, Carolyn

2009-01-01

An accumulating body of literature has shown a link between early pubertal maturation and internalizing problems, particularly among girls. Our knowledge is, however, limited with regard to what accounts for this association. Based on a hypothesis that early maturing girls have heightened stress sensitivity that increases the risk of internalizing…

Predicting chaotic time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, J.D.; Sidorowich, J.J.

1987-01-01

We present a forecasting technique for chaotic data. After embedding a time series in a state space using delay coordinates, we ''learn'' the induced nonlinear mapping using local approximation. This allows us to make short-term predictions of the future behavior of a time series, using information based only on past values. We present an error estimate for this technique, and demonstrate its effectiveness by applying it to several examples, including data from the Mackey-Glass delay differential equation, Rayleigh-Benard convection, and Taylor-Couette flow

A Time-predictable Memory Network-on-Chip

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schoeberl, Martin; Chong, David VH; Puffitsch, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

To derive safe bounds on worst-case execution times (WCETs), all components of a computer system need to be time-predictable: the processor pipeline, the caches, the memory controller, and memory arbitration on a multicore processor. This paper presents a solution for time-predictable memory...... arbitration and access for chip-multiprocessors. The memory network-on-chip is organized as a tree with time-division multiplexing (TDM) of accesses to the shared memory. The TDM based arbitration completely decouples processor cores and allows WCET analysis of the memory accesses on individual cores without...

Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang beibei Ji

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

Cardiovascular risk factors in pre-pubertal schoolchildren in Angola.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Amílcar B; Capingana, Daniel P; Magalhães, Pedro; Gonçalves, Mauer A; Molina, Maria Del Carmen B; Rodrigues, Sërgio L; Baldo, Marcelo P; Mateus, Miguel S; Mill, Josë Geraldo

The incidence of obesity is increasing worldwide, especially in countries with accelerated economic growth. We determined the prevalence of and associations between overweight/obesity and cardiovascular risk factors in pre-pubertal (seven- to 11-year-old) schoolchildren (both genders, n = 198) in Luanda, Angola. Biochemical (fasting blood) and clinical examinations were obtained in a single visit. Data are reported as prevalence (95% confidence intervals) and association (r, Pearson). Prevalence of overweight/obesity was 17.7% (12.4- 23.0%), high blood pressure (BP > 90% percentile) was 14.6% (9.7-19.5%), elevated glucose level was 16.7% (11.5-21.9%) and total cholesterol level > 170 mg/dl (4.4 mmol/l) was 69.2% (62.8-75.6%). Significant associations between body mass index (BMI) and systolic and diastolic BP (r = 0.46 and 0.40, respectively; p Angola and fat accumulation was directly associated with blood pressure increase but not with other cardiovascular risk factors.

Time series prediction: statistical and neural techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Zahirniak, Daniel R.; DeSimio, Martin P.

1996-03-01

In this paper we compare the performance of nonlinear neural network techniques to those of linear filtering techniques in the prediction of time series. Specifically, we compare the results of using the nonlinear systems, known as multilayer perceptron and radial basis function neural networks, with the results obtained using the conventional linear Wiener filter, Kalman filter and Widrow-Hoff adaptive filter in predicting future values of stationary and non- stationary time series. Our results indicate the performance of each type of system is heavily dependent upon the form of the time series being predicted and the size of the system used. In particular, the linear filters perform adequately for linear or near linear processes while the nonlinear systems perform better for nonlinear processes. Since the linear systems take much less time to be developed, they should be tried prior to using the nonlinear systems when the linearity properties of the time series process are unknown.

Three Millennia of Seemingly Time-Predictable Earthquakes, Tell Ateret

Science.gov (United States)

Agnon, Amotz; Marco, Shmuel; Ellenblum, Ronnie

2014-05-01

Among various idealized recurrence models of large earthquakes, the "time-predictable" model has a straightforward mechanical interpretation, consistent with simple friction laws. On a time-predictable fault, the time interval between an earthquake and its predecessor is proportional to the slip during the predecessor. The alternative "slip-predictable" model states that the slip during earthquake rupture is proportional to the preceding time interval. Verifying these models requires extended records of high precision data for both timing and amount of slip. The precision of paleoearthquake data can rarely confirm or rule out predictability, and recent papers argue for either time- or slip-predictable behavior. The Ateret site, on the trace of the Dead Sea fault at the Jordan Gorge segment, offers unique precision for determining space-time patterns. Five consecutive slip events, each associated with deformed and offset sets of walls, are correlated with historical earthquakes. Two correlations are based on detailed archaeological, historical, and numismatic evidence. The other three are tentative. The offsets of three of the events are determined with high precision; the other two are not as certain. Accepting all five correlations, the fault exhibits a striking time-predictable behavior, with a long term slip rate of 3 mm/yr. However, the 30 October 1759 ~0.5 m rupture predicts a subsequent rupture along the Jordan Gorge toward the end of the last century. We speculate that earthquakres on secondary faults (the 25 November 1759 on the Rachaya branch and the 1 January 1837 on the Roum branch, both M≥7) have disrupted the 3 kyr time-predictable pattern.

Time-series prediction and applications a machine intelligence approach

CERN Document Server

Konar, Amit

2017-01-01

This book presents machine learning and type-2 fuzzy sets for the prediction of time-series with a particular focus on business forecasting applications. It also proposes new uncertainty management techniques in an economic time-series using type-2 fuzzy sets for prediction of the time-series at a given time point from its preceding value in fluctuating business environments. It employs machine learning to determine repetitively occurring similar structural patterns in the time-series and uses stochastic automaton to predict the most probabilistic structure at a given partition of the time-series. Such predictions help in determining probabilistic moves in a stock index time-series Primarily written for graduate students and researchers in computer science, the book is equally useful for researchers/professionals in business intelligence and stock index prediction. A background of undergraduate level mathematics is presumed, although not mandatory, for most of the sections. Exercises with tips are provided at...

Memory controllers for real-time embedded systems predictable and composable real-time systems

CERN Document Server

Akesson, Benny

2012-01-01

  Verification of real-time requirements in systems-on-chip becomes more complex as more applications are integrated. Predictable and composable systems can manage the increasing complexity using formal verification and simulation.  This book explains the concepts of predictability and composability and shows how to apply them to the design and analysis of a memory controller, which is a key component in any real-time system. This book is generally intended for readers interested in Systems-on-Chips with real-time applications.   It is especially well-suited for readers looking to use SDRAM memories in systems with hard or firm real-time requirements. There is a strong focus on real-time concepts, such as predictability and composability, as well as a brief discussion about memory controller architectures for high-performance computing. Readers will learn step-by-step how to go from an unpredictable SDRAM memory, offering highly variable bandwidth and latency, to a predictable and composable shared memory...

Accuracy of dental development for estimating the pubertal growth spurt in comparison to skeletal development: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bittencourt, MarcosAlan Vieira; Cericato, GrazielaOro; Franco, Ademir; Girão, RafaelaSilva; Lima, Anderson Paulo Barbosa; Paranhos, LuizRenato

2018-05-01

This study aimed to search for scientific evidence concerning the accuracy of dental development for estimating the pubertal growth spurt. It was conducted according to the statements of PRISMA. An electronic search was performed in six databases, including the grey literature. The PICOS strategy was used to define the eligibility criteria and only observational studies were selected. Out of 1,416 identified citations, 10 articles fulfilled the criteria and were included in this systematic review. The association between dental development and skeletal maturity was considered strong in seven studies, and moderate in two, although the association with the pubertal growth spurt had been verified in only four articles. According to half of the studies, the tooth that provided the greater association with the ossification centres was the lower canine. The meta-analysis performed also indicated a positive association, being stronger in females [0.725 (0.649-0.808)]. However, when the method used for dental evaluation was considered, it was possible to verify greater correlation coefficients for Nolla [0.736 (0.666-0.814)] than for Demirjian [0.631 (0.450-0.884)], at the boys sample. The heterogeneity test reached high values (Q = 51.00), suggesting a potential bias within the studies. Most of individual studies suggested a strong correlation between dental development and skeletal maturation, although the association with the peakof pubertal growth spurtwas clearly cited only in some of them. However, due to the high heterogeneity found among the studies included in this meta-analysis, a pragmatic recommendation about the use of dental stages is not possible.

Evaluation of apoptotic- and autophagic-related protein expressions before and after IVM of fresh, slow-frozen and vitrified pre-pubertal mouse testicular tissue.

Science.gov (United States)

Dumont, L; Chalmel, F; Oblette, A; Berby, B; Rives, A; Duchesne, V; Rondanino, C; Rives, N

2017-11-01

Do freezing and in vitro culture procedures enhance the expression of proteins involved in apoptotic or autophagic pathways in murine pre-pubertal testicular tissue? IVM strongly modified apoptosis- and autophagy-related relative protein levels in mice testicular tissue whereas the impact of cryopreservation procedures was minimal at the end of the culture. In vitro spermatogenesis remains a challenging technical issue as it imposes to find a very close balance between survival and death of germ cell natural precursors (i.e. gonocytes and spermatogonia), which will eventually undergo a complete spermatogenesis close to in vivo conditions. The establishment of efficient culture conditions coupled with suitable cryopreservation procedures (e.g. controlled slow freezing [CSF] and solid surface vitrification [SSV]) of pre-pubertal testicular tissue is a crucial step in the fields of fertility preservation and restoration to improve the spermatic yield obtained in vitro. Here, we study cryopreservation procedures (i.e. CSF or SSV) and the impact of culture media compositions. A first set of 66 mouse pre-pubertal testes were directly cultured during 30, 36, 38 and 60 days (D) from 2.5 to 6.5-day-old CD-1 mice to evaluate the impact of time-aspect of culture and to endorse the reverse phase protein microarrays (RPPM) technique as an adapted experimental tool for the field of in vitro spermatogenesis. Ninety others fresh, slow-frozen and vitrified pre-pubertal testes were cultured during 30 days for the principal study to evaluate the impact of cryopreservation procedures before and after culture. Thirty-four testes dissected from 2.5, 6.5, 36.5, 40.5, 42.5 and 62.5 days postpartum (dpp) mice, corresponding to the time frames of spermatogenesis orchestrated in vitro, were used as in vivo controls. After in vitro culture, testicular tissue samples originated from 2.5 or 6.5-day-old CD-1 male mice were analyzed using RPPM. This targeted proteomic technique allowed us to

Prenatal androgen excess enhances stimulation of the GNRH pulse in pubertal female rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Xiaonan; Yuan, Chun; Zhao, Nannan; Cui, Yugui; Liu, Jiayin

2014-07-01

In adolescent girls with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), neuroendocrine derangements manifest after the onset of puberty, characterized by rapid LH pulse frequency. The early mechanism underlying the pubertal regulation of the GNRH/LH pulsatile release in adolescents with PCOS remains uncertain. To determine the effects of prenatal androgen exposure on the activation of GNRH neurons and generation of LH pulse at puberty, we administrated 5α-dihydrotestosterone to pregnant rats and observed serum LH levels and expression of hypothalamic genes in female offspring from postnatal 4 to 8 weeks. The 6-week-old prenatally androgenized (PNA) female rats exhibited an increase in LH pulse frequency. The hypothalamic expression of neurokinin B (Nkb (Tac2)) and Lepr mRNA levels in PNA rats increased remarkably before puberty and remained high during puberty, whereas elevated Kiss1 mRNA levels were detected only after the onset of puberty. Exogenous kisspeptin, NK3R agonist, and leptin triggered tonic stimulation of GNRH neurons and increased LH secretion in 6-week-old PNA rats. Leptin upregulated Kiss1 mRNA levels in the hypothalamus of pubertal PNA rats; however, pretreatment with a kisspeptin antagonist failed to suppress the elevated serum LH stimulated by leptin, indicating that the stimulatory effects of leptin may be conveyed indirectly to GNRH neurons via other neural components within the GNRH neuronal network, rather than through the kisspeptin-GPR54 pathway. These findings validate the hypotheses that NKB and leptin play an essential role in the activation of GNRH neurons and initiation of increased LH pulse frequency in PNA female rats at puberty and that kisspeptin may coordinate their stimulatory effects on LH release. © 2014 Society for Endocrinology.

Safety-critical Java on a time-predictable processor

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korsholm, Stephan E.; Schoeberl, Martin; Puffitsch, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

For real-time systems the whole execution stack needs to be time-predictable and analyzable for the worst-case execution time (WCET). This paper presents a time-predictable platform for safety-critical Java. The platform consists of (1) the Patmos processor, which is a time-predictable processor......; (2) a C compiler for Patmos with support for WCET analysis; (3) the HVM, which is a Java-to-C compiler; (4) the HVM-SCJ implementation which supports SCJ Level 0, 1, and 2 (for both single and multicore platforms); and (5) a WCET analysis tool. We show that real-time Java programs translated to C...... and compiled to a Patmos binary can be analyzed by the AbsInt aiT WCET analysis tool. To the best of our knowledge the presented system is the second WCET analyzable real-time Java system; and the first one on top of a RISC processor....

Treatment timing of MARA and fixed appliance therapy of Class II malocclusion.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghislanzoni, Luis Tomas Huanca; Baccetti, Tiziano; Toll, Douglas; Defraia, Efisio; McNamara, James A; Franchi, Lorenzo

2013-06-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of timing on Mandibular Anterior Repositioning Appliance (MARA) and fixed appliance treatment of Class II malocclusion in a prospective clinical trial. The treated sample consisted of 51 consecutively treated patients at prepubertal (n = 21), pubertal (n = 15), and postpubertal (n = 15) stages of development. Control groups for the three treated groups were generated from growth data of untreated Class II subjects. Lateral cephalograms were digitized and superimposed via cephalometric software at T1 (pre-treatment) and T2 (after comprehensive treatment). The T1-T2 changes in the treated groups were compared to those in their corresponding control groups with Mann-Whitney tests with Bonferroni correction. Mandibular elongation was greater at the pubertal stage (Co-Gn +2.6 mm, with respect to controls). Headgear effect on the maxilla was greater in the pre-peak sample (Co-A -1.9 mm, with respect to controls). Dentoalveolar compensations (proclination of lower incisors, extrusion and mesialization of lower molars, and reduction in the overbite) were significant in the pre-peak and post-peak groups. Optimal timing for Class II treatment with MARA appliance is at the pubertal growth spurt, with enhanced mandibular skeletal changes and minimal dentoalveolar compensations.

Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

2008-01-01

or girls. A majority of the panelists agreed that data are sufficient to suggest a trend toward an earlier breast development onset and menarche in girls but not for other female pubertal markers. A minority of panelists concluded that the current data on girls' puberty timing for any marker...... are insufficient. Almost all panelists concluded, on the basis of few studies and reliability issues of some male puberty markers, that current data for boys are insufficient to evaluate secular trends in male pubertal development. The panel agreed that altered puberty timing should be considered an adverse effect......Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

Timing of Puberty in Overweight Versus Obese Boys.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Joyce M; Wasserman, Richard; Kaciroti, Niko; Gebremariam, Achamyeleh; Steffes, Jennifer; Dowshen, Steven; Harris, Donna; Serwint, Janet; Abney, Dianna; Smitherman, Lynn; Reiter, Edward; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E

2016-02-01

Studies of the relationship of weight status with timing of puberty in boys have been mixed. This study examined whether overweight and obesity are associated with differences in the timing of puberty in US boys. We reanalyzed recent community-based pubertal data from the American Academy of Pediatrics' Pediatric Research in Office Settings study in which trained clinicians assessed boys 6 to 16 years for height, weight, Tanner stages, testicular volume (TV), and other pubertal variables. We classified children based on BMI as normal weight, overweight, or obese and compared median age at a given Tanner stage or greater by weight class using probit and ordinal probit models and a Bayesian approach. Half of boys (49.9%, n = 1931) were white, 25.8% (n = 1000) were African American, and 24.3% (n = 941) were Hispanic. For genital development in white and African American boys across a variety of Tanner stages, we found earlier puberty in overweight compared with normal weight boys, and later puberty in obese compared with overweight, but no significant differences for Hispanics. For TV (≥3 mL or ≥4 mL), our findings support earlier puberty for overweight compared with normal weight white boys. In a large, racially diverse, community-based sample of US boys, we found evidence of earlier puberty for overweight compared with normal or obese, and later puberty for obese boys compared with normal and overweight boys. Additional studies are needed to understand the possible relationships among race/ethnicity, gender, BMI, and the timing of pubertal development. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Chaotic time series prediction: From one to another

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Pengfei; Xing Lei; Yu Jun

2009-01-01

In this Letter, a new local linear prediction model is proposed to predict a chaotic time series of a component x(t) by using the chaotic time series of another component y(t) in the same system with x(t). Our approach is based on the phase space reconstruction coming from the Takens embedding theorem. To illustrate our results, we present an example of Lorenz system and compare with the performance of the original local linear prediction model.

Genital Involvement In Pre-Pubertal Pediatric Population: A Rare Aspect of Crohn’s Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qurratul Ann Warsi

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Crohn’s disease is an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD, characterized by chronic intestinal inflammation that causes the loss of immune tolerance leading to bizarre inflammatory signals and disruption of mucosal barriers. Environmental triggers and interaction of genetic determinants also play an indispensible role. In this case report, we present a pre-pubertal girl with intermittent and refractory genital swelling. We emphasize that Crohn’s disease must be considered in the differential diagnosis of recurrent, non-tender, erythematous and edematous lesions of the genital area. We conclude with future directions for diagnosing and managing vulvar Crohn’s disease in pediatric population.

Predicting the Times of Retweeting in Microblogs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Kuang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, microblog services accelerate the information propagation among peoples, leaving the traditional media like newspaper, TV, forum, blogs, and web portals far behind. Various messages are spread quickly and widely by retweeting in microblogs. In this paper, we take Sina microblog as an example, aiming to predict the possible number of retweets of an original tweet in one month according to the time series distribution of its top n retweets. In order to address the problem, we propose the concept of a tweet’s lifecycle, which is mainly decided by three factors, namely, the response time, the importance of content, and the interval time distribution, and then the given time series distribution curve of its top n retweets is fitted by a two-phase function, so as to predict the number of its retweets in one month. The phases in the function are divided by the lifecycle of the original tweet and different functions are used in the two phases. Experiment results show that our solution can address the problem of predicting the times of retweeting in microblogs with a satisfying precision.

Investigation of pre-pubertal sex differences in wheel running and social behavior in three mouse strains

OpenAIRE

Gordon, Elizabeth A.; Corbitt, Cynthia

2015-01-01

Sex differences in social behaviors exist in mammals during adulthood, and further evidence suggests that sex differences in behavior are present before sexual maturity. In order to model behavioral disorders in animals, it is important to assess baseline sex-related behavioral differences, especially when studying disorders for which sex-related behavioral effects are expected. We investigated the effect of sex on behavior in 3 strains of pre-pubertal mice (C57BL/6, CFW, and CF1) using a whe...

Support for the Logical Execution Time Model on a Time-predictable Multicore Processor

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kluge, Florian; Schoeberl, Martin; Ungerer, Theo

2016-01-01

The logical execution time (LET) model increases the compositionality of real-time task sets. Removal or addition of tasks does not influence the communication behavior of other tasks. In this work, we extend a multicore operating system running on a time-predictable multicore processor to support...... the LET model. For communication between tasks we use message passing on a time-predictable network-on-chip to avoid the bottleneck of shared memory. We report our experiences and present results on the costs in terms of memory and execution time....

Real-time Tsunami Inundation Prediction Using High Performance Computers

Science.gov (United States)

Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.

2014-12-01

Recently off-shore tsunami observation stations based on cabled ocean bottom pressure gauges are actively being deployed especially in Japan. These cabled systems are designed to provide real-time tsunami data before tsunamis reach coastlines for disaster mitigation purposes. To receive real benefits of these observations, real-time analysis techniques to make an effective use of these data are necessary. A representative study was made by Tsushima et al. (2009) that proposed a method to provide instant tsunami source prediction based on achieving tsunami waveform data. As time passes, the prediction is improved by using updated waveform data. After a tsunami source is predicted, tsunami waveforms are synthesized from pre-computed tsunami Green functions of linear long wave equations. Tsushima et al. (2014) updated the method by combining the tsunami waveform inversion with an instant inversion of coseismic crustal deformation and improved the prediction accuracy and speed in the early stages. For disaster mitigation purposes, real-time predictions of tsunami inundation are also important. In this study, we discuss the possibility of real-time tsunami inundation predictions, which require faster-than-real-time tsunami inundation simulation in addition to instant tsunami source analysis. Although the computational amount is large to solve non-linear shallow water equations for inundation predictions, it has become executable through the recent developments of high performance computing technologies. We conducted parallel computations of tsunami inundation and achieved 6.0 TFLOPS by using 19,000 CPU cores. We employed a leap-frog finite difference method with nested staggered grids of which resolution range from 405 m to 5 m. The resolution ratio of each nested domain was 1/3. Total number of grid points were 13 million, and the time step was 0.1 seconds. Tsunami sources of 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake were tested. The inundation prediction up to 2 hours after the

Multivariate performance reliability prediction in real-time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, S.; Lu, H.; Kolarik, W.J.

2001-01-01

This paper presents a technique for predicting system performance reliability in real-time considering multiple failure modes. The technique includes on-line multivariate monitoring and forecasting of selected performance measures and conditional performance reliability estimates. The performance measures across time are treated as a multivariate time series. A state-space approach is used to model the multivariate time series. Recursive forecasting is performed by adopting Kalman filtering. The predicted mean vectors and covariance matrix of performance measures are used for the assessment of system survival/reliability with respect to the conditional performance reliability. The technique and modeling protocol discussed in this paper provide a means to forecast and evaluate the performance of an individual system in a dynamic environment in real-time. The paper also presents an example to demonstrate the technique

A novel time series link prediction method: Learning automata approach

Science.gov (United States)

Moradabadi, Behnaz; Meybodi, Mohammad Reza

2017-09-01

Link prediction is a main social network challenge that uses the network structure to predict future links. The common link prediction approaches to predict hidden links use a static graph representation where a snapshot of the network is analyzed to find hidden or future links. For example, similarity metric based link predictions are a common traditional approach that calculates the similarity metric for each non-connected link and sort the links based on their similarity metrics and label the links with higher similarity scores as the future links. Because people activities in social networks are dynamic and uncertainty, and the structure of the networks changes over time, using deterministic graphs for modeling and analysis of the social network may not be appropriate. In the time-series link prediction problem, the time series link occurrences are used to predict the future links In this paper, we propose a new time series link prediction based on learning automata. In the proposed algorithm for each link that must be predicted there is one learning automaton and each learning automaton tries to predict the existence or non-existence of the corresponding link. To predict the link occurrence in time T, there is a chain consists of stages 1 through T - 1 and the learning automaton passes from these stages to learn the existence or non-existence of the corresponding link. Our preliminary link prediction experiments with co-authorship and email networks have provided satisfactory results when time series link occurrences are considered.

Sex-specific mouse liver gene expression: genome-wide analysis of developmental changes from pre-pubertal period to young adulthood

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Conforto Tara L

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Early liver development and the transcriptional transitions during hepatogenesis are well characterized. However, gene expression changes during the late postnatal/pre-pubertal to young adulthood period are less well understood, especially with regards to sex-specific gene expression. Methods Microarray analysis of male and female mouse liver was carried out at 3, 4, and 8 wk of age to elucidate developmental changes in gene expression from the late postnatal/pre-pubertal period to young adulthood. Results A large number of sex-biased and sex-independent genes showed significant changes during this developmental period. Notably, sex-independent genes involved in cell cycle, chromosome condensation, and DNA replication were down regulated from 3 wk to 8 wk, while genes associated with metal ion binding, ion transport and kinase activity were up regulated. A majority of genes showing sex differential expression in adult liver did not display sex differences prior to puberty, at which time extensive changes in sex-specific gene expression were seen, primarily in males. Thus, in male liver, 76% of male-specific genes were up regulated and 47% of female-specific genes were down regulated from 3 to 8 wk of age, whereas in female liver 67% of sex-specific genes showed no significant change in expression. In both sexes, genes up regulated from 3 to 8 wk were significantly enriched (p p Ihh; female-specific Cdx4, Cux2, Tox, and Trim24 and may contribute to the developmental changes that lead to global acquisition of liver sex-specificity by 8 wk of age. Conclusions Overall, the observed changes in gene expression during postnatal liver development reflect the deceleration of liver growth and the induction of specialized liver functions, with widespread changes in sex-specific gene expression primarily occurring in male liver.

Physical activity, sedentary time, and sleep and the association with inflammatory markers and adiponectin in 8- to 11-year-old Danish children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Mette Søndergaard; Quist, Jonas Salling; Chaput, Jean-Philippe

2016-01-01

the association between accelerometer determined moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), sedentary time, and sleep (7 days/8 nights) and fasting C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and adiponectin in 806 school children. A sleep variability score was calculated. RESULTS: MVPA was negatively...... associated with adiponectin in boys and girls (Psleep duration, sedentary time, age, fat mass index (FMI), and pubertal status. Sedentary time was positively associated with adiponectin in boys and girls (both Psleep duration...... with adiponectin in boys independent of age, FMI, and pubertal status (PSleep duration variability was positively associated with CRP in girls independent of all covariates (P

HVM-TP: A Time Predictable, Portable Java Virtual Machine for Hard Real-Time Embedded Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Luckow, Kasper Søe; Thomsen, Bent; Korsholm, Stephan Erbs

2014-01-01

We present HVMTIME; a portable and time predictable JVM implementation with applications in resource-constrained hard real-time embedded systems. In addition, it implements the Safety Critical Java (SCJ) Level 1 specification. Time predictability is achieved by a combination of time predictable...... algorithms, exploiting the programming model of the SCJ specification, and harnessing static knowledge of the hosted SCJ system. This paper presents HVMTIME in terms of its design and capabilities, and demonstrates how a complete timing model of the JVM represented as a Network of Timed Automata can...... be obtained using the tool TetaSARTSJVM. Further, using the timing model, we derive Worst Case Execution Times (WCETs) and Best Case Execution Times (BCETs) of the Java Bytecodes....

Grammar-based feature generation for time-series prediction

CERN Document Server

De Silva, Anthony Mihirana

2015-01-01

This book proposes a novel approach for time-series prediction using machine learning techniques with automatic feature generation. Application of machine learning techniques to predict time-series continues to attract considerable attention due to the difficulty of the prediction problems compounded by the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the real world time-series. The performance of machine learning techniques, among other things, depends on suitable engineering of features. This book proposes a systematic way for generating suitable features using context-free grammar. A number of feature selection criteria are investigated and a hybrid feature generation and selection algorithm using grammatical evolution is proposed. The book contains graphical illustrations to explain the feature generation process. The proposed approaches are demonstrated by predicting the closing price of major stock market indices, peak electricity load and net hourly foreign exchange client trade volume. The proposed method ...

Effects of Habitual Physical Activity and Fitness on Tibial Cortical Bone Mass, Structure and Mass Distribution in Pre-pubertal Boys and Girls: The Look Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Duckham, Rachel L; Rantalainen, Timo; Ducher, Gaele; Hill, Briony; Telford, Richard D; Telford, Rohan M; Daly, Robin M

2016-07-01

Targeted weight-bearing activities during the pre-pubertal years can improve cortical bone mass, structure and distribution, but less is known about the influence of habitual physical activity (PA) and fitness. This study examined the effects of contrasting habitual PA and fitness levels on cortical bone density, geometry and mass distribution in pre-pubertal children. Boys (n = 241) and girls (n = 245) aged 7-9 years had a pQCT scan to measure tibial mid-shaft total, cortical and medullary area, cortical thickness, density, polar strength strain index (SSIpolar) and the mass/density distribution through the bone cortex (radial distribution divided into endo-, mid- and pericortical regions) and around the centre of mass (polar distribution). Four contrasting PA and fitness groups (inactive-unfit, inactive-fit, active-unfit, active-fit) were generated based on daily step counts (pedometer, 7-days) and fitness levels (20-m shuttle test and vertical jump) for boys and girls separately. Active-fit boys had 7.3-7.7 % greater cortical area and thickness compared to inactive-unfit boys (P girls, but active-fit girls had 6.1 % (P girls, which was likely due to their 6.7 % (P active-fit girls. Higher levels of habitual PA-fitness were associated with small regional-specific gains in 66 % tibial cortical bone mass in pre-pubertal children, particularly boys.

State-space prediction model for chaotic time series

Science.gov (United States)

Alparslan, A. K.; Sayar, M.; Atilgan, A. R.

1998-08-01

A simple method for predicting the continuation of scalar chaotic time series ahead in time is proposed. The false nearest neighbors technique in connection with the time-delayed embedding is employed so as to reconstruct the state space. A local forecasting model based upon the time evolution of the topological neighboring in the reconstructed phase space is suggested. A moving root-mean-square error is utilized in order to monitor the error along the prediction horizon. The model is tested for the convection amplitude of the Lorenz model. The results indicate that for approximately 100 cycles of the training data, the prediction follows the actual continuation very closely about six cycles. The proposed model, like other state-space forecasting models, captures the long-term behavior of the system due to the use of spatial neighbors in the state space.

Sex, age, pubertal development and use of oral contraceptives in relation to serum concentrations of DHEA, DHEAS, 17α-hydroxyprogesterone, Δ4-androstenedione, testosterone and their ratios in children, adolescents and young adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Søeborg, Tue; Frederiksen, Hanne; Mouritsen, Annette; Johannsen, Trine Holm; Main, Katharina Maria; Jørgensen, Niels; Petersen, Jørgen Holm; Andersson, Anna-Maria; Juul, Anders

2014-11-01

The influence of sex, age, pubertal development and oral contraceptives on dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), DHEA sulfate (DHEAS), 17α-hydroxyprogesterone (17-OHP), Δ4-androstenedione (Adione), testosterone (T), calculated free testosterone (fT), free androgen index (FAI) and selected ratios in 1798 serum samples from healthy children, adolescents and young adults was evaluated. Samples were analyzed by Turboflow-LC-MS/MS. Sex hormone-binding globulin was analyzed by immunoassay. All steroid metabolite concentrations were positively associated with age and pubertal development in both sexes and generally higher in males than in females except for Adione. The pubertal rise in T in males was more pronounced compared to females, reflecting contribution from the testes. Ratios between steroid metabolites varied and depended on sex and age. All ratios were lower during infancy compared to later in life. Use of oral contraceptives significantly lowered serum concentrations of all steroid metabolites, fT, FAI, the 17-OHP/Adione, the Adione/T and the DHEA/Adione ratios, but not the DHEA/DHEAS ratio. We provide reference ranges for DHEA, DHEAS, 17-OHP, Adione, T, fT, FAI and selected ratios in relation to sex, age and pubertal development. Use of oral contraceptives strongly influences adrenal steroidogenesis and should be considered when diagnosing and monitoring treatment of patients with disorders of sex development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expression and localization of Indian hedgehog (Ihh) and parathyroid hormone related protein (PTHrP) in the human growth plate during pubertal development.

Science.gov (United States)

Kindblom, J M; Nilsson, O; Hurme, T; Ohlsson, C; Sävendahl, L

2002-08-01

Indian Hedgehog (Ihh) has been reported to control the rate of cartilage differentiation during skeletal morphogenesis in rodents through a negative feedback loop involving parathyroid hormone related protein (PTHrP). The role of Ihh and PTHrP in the regulation of human epiphyseal chondrocytes is unknown. The aim of the current study was to examine the expression and localization of Ihh and PTHrP in the human growth plate at various pubertal stages. Growth plate biopsies were obtained from patients subjected to epiphyseal surgery and the expression of Ihh and PTHrP was detected by immunohistochemistry. We show that Ihh and PTHrP are expressed mainly in early hypertrophic chondrocytes in the human growth plate. The levels of expression of Ihh and PTHrP are higher in early stages of puberty than later. Our results suggest that Ihh and PTHrP are present in the human growth plate and that Ihh and PTHrP may be involved in the regulation of pubertal growth in humans.

Just-In-Time predictive control for a two-wheeled robot

OpenAIRE

Nakpong, Nuttapun; Yamamoto, Shigeru

2012-01-01

In this paper, we introduce the use of Just-In-Time predictive control to enhance the stability of a two-wheeled robot. Just-In-Time predictive control uses a database which includes a huge amounts of input-output data of the two-wheeled robot and predicts its future movements based on a Just-In-Time algorithm. © 2012 IEEE.

Effect of Rainfall on Travel Time and Accuracy of Travel Time prediction with rainfall

OpenAIRE

CHUNG, E; EL-FAOUZI, NE; KUWAHARA, M

2007-01-01

Travel time is an important parameter to report to travelers. From the user's perspective, accurate predictions and an estimate of their precision are more beneficial than the current travel time since conditions may change significantly before a traveler completes the journey. Past researches have developed travel time prediction models without considering accidents and rain. Normally accident and Rain may cause to increase travel time. Therefore, it may be interesting to consider Rain and a...

Time dependent patient no-show predictive modelling development.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yu-Li; Hanauer, David A

2016-05-09

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop evident-based predictive no-show models considering patients' each past appointment status, a time-dependent component, as an independent predictor to improve predictability. Design/methodology/approach - A ten-year retrospective data set was extracted from a pediatric clinic. It consisted of 7,291 distinct patients who had at least two visits along with their appointment characteristics, patient demographics, and insurance information. Logistic regression was adopted to develop no-show models using two-thirds of the data for training and the remaining data for validation. The no-show threshold was then determined based on minimizing the misclassification of show/no-show assignments. There were a total of 26 predictive model developed based on the number of available past appointments. Simulation was employed to test the effective of each model on costs of patient wait time, physician idle time, and overtime. Findings - The results demonstrated the misclassification rate and the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic gradually improved as more appointment history was included until around the 20th predictive model. The overbooking method with no-show predictive models suggested incorporating up to the 16th model and outperformed other overbooking methods by as much as 9.4 per cent in the cost per patient while allowing two additional patients in a clinic day. Research limitations/implications - The challenge now is to actually implement the no-show predictive model systematically to further demonstrate its robustness and simplicity in various scheduling systems. Originality/value - This paper provides examples of how to build the no-show predictive models with time-dependent components to improve the overbooking policy. Accurately identifying scheduled patients' show/no-show status allows clinics to proactively schedule patients to reduce the negative impact of patient no-shows.

Attachment, parenting styles and bullying during pubertal years.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Watt, Ronél

2014-01-01

Research that focuses on combining attachment, parenting styles, bullying and the reciprocal nature thereof in the parent-adolescent and peer relationships is limited. The bio-psychosocial changes that adolescents experience open up broader social realities and are perceived differently by parents and adolescents. Attachment processes and parenting styles may elicit dissimilar perceptions. These processes are also associated with the multifaceted dynamics of bullying. The aim of the article is to advocate for research on the possible link between the implications of attachment, parenting styles and bullying. Exploring the association between attachment, parenting styles and bullying can deepen the understanding of the developmental challenges within the parent-adolescent relationship, add insight to the different perceptions of adolescents and parents, and complement intervention programmes accordingly. Firstly, this article outlines bio-psychosocial changes in the pubertal years as related to the social realities of the adolescent. Secondly, a discussion on the concepts 'attachment', 'parenting styles', 'bullying', and the potential link between these concepts will follow. Thirdly, an outline of the clinical implications of the apparent association between these concepts is given. The article concludes with recommendations that researchers can consider while exploring the relationship between attachment, parenting styles, and bullying and the delineation thereof in the parent-adolescent relationship.

Comparison of three lifecourse models of poverty in predicting cardiovascular disease risk in youth.

Science.gov (United States)

Kakinami, Lisa; Séguin, Louise; Lambert, Marie; Gauvin, Lise; Nikiema, Béatrice; Paradis, Gilles

2013-08-01

Childhood poverty heightens the risk of adulthood cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the underlying pathways are poorly understood. Three lifecourse models have been proposed but have never been tested among youth. We assessed the longitudinal association of childhood poverty with CVD risk factors in 10-year-old youth according to the timing, accumulation, and mobility models. The Québec Longitudinal Study of Child Development birth cohort was established in 1998 (n = 2120). Poverty was defined as annual income below the low-income thresholds defined by Statistics Canada. Multiple imputation was used for missing data. Multivariable linear regression models adjusted for gender, pubertal stage, parental education, maternal age, whether the household was a single parent household, whether the child was overweight or obese, the child's physical activity in the past week, and family history. Approximately 40% experienced poverty at least once, 16% throughout childhood, and 25% intermittently. Poverty was associated with significantly elevated triglycerides and insulin according to the timing and accumulation models, although the timing model was superior for predicting insulin and the accumulation model was superior for predicting triglycerides. Early and prolonged exposure to poverty significantly increases CVD risk among 10-year-old youth. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power Using a Hybrid Wavelet-ARMA-NARX Prediction Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nazaripouya, Hamidreza; Wang, Yubo; Chu, Chi-Cheng; Pota, Hemanshu; Gadh, Rajit

2016-05-02

This paper proposes a new hybrid method for super short-term solar power prediction. Solar output power usually has a complex, nonstationary, and nonlinear characteristic due to intermittent and time varying behavior of solar radiance. In addition, solar power dynamics is fast and is inertia less. An accurate super short-time prediction is required to compensate for the fluctuations and reduce the impact of solar power penetration on the power system. The objective is to predict one step-ahead solar power generation based only on historical solar power time series data. The proposed method incorporates discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), while the RNN architecture is based on Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX). The wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the solar power time series into a set of richer-behaved forming series for prediction. ARMA model is employed as a linear predictor while NARX is used as a nonlinear pattern recognition tool to estimate and compensate the error of wavelet-ARMA prediction. The proposed method is applied to the data captured from UCLA solar PV panels and the results are compared with some of the common and most recent solar power prediction methods. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show a considerable improvement in the prediction precision.

Time-To-Complete Prediction for Data Transfers

CERN Document Server

Toler, Wesley

2016-01-01

Currently, there is no prediction provided to users for the amount of time a particular data transfer from one site in the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid to another will take to complete. To develop a time-to-complete prediction, network performance data and per-file information is gathered from two separate databases and fused, and the resulting cleaned data is fitted using random forest regression. Results are shown for two separate links: the link from CERN Data Centre to Brookhaven National Laboratory’s ATLAS data center, and the link from CERN Data Centre to SARA-MATRIX in Amsterdam. A total RMS error of 25.93 minutes between predicted and test data is found for the CERN-PROD -> BNL-ATLAS link, while the CERN-PROD -> SARA-MATRIX link yields a total RMS error of 3.00 minutes.

Implementation and testing of the travel time prediction system (TIPS)

OpenAIRE

PANT, Prahlad D; UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI

2001-01-01

RAPPORT DE RECHERCHE FINAL The Travel Time Prediction System (TIPS) is a portable automated system for predicting and displaying travel time for motorists in advance of and through freeway construction work zones,on a real-time basis

Experienced travel time prediction for congested freeways

OpenAIRE

Yildirimoglu, Mehmet; Geroliminis, Nikolaos

2013-01-01

Travel time is an important performance measure for transportation systems, and dissemination of travel time information can help travelers make reliable travel decisions such as route choice or departure time. Since the traffic data collected in real time reflects the past or current conditions on the roadway, a predictive travel time methodology should be used to obtain the information to be disseminated. However, an important part of the literature either uses instantaneous travel time ass...

Assessment of circulating sex steroid levels in prepubertal and pubertal boys and girls by a novel ultrasensitive gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Courant, Frédérique; Aksglæde, Lise; Antignac, Jean-Philippe

2010-01-01

Estrogens and androgens play key roles for pubertal onset and sexual maturation. Most currently used immunoassays are not sensitive enough to accurately measure the low circulating levels of sex steroids in children without any signs of puberty. However, this does not exclude that sex steroids ha...

Normal Pubertal Development in Daughters of Women With PCOS: A Controlled Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Legro, Richard S; Kunselman, Allen R; Stetter, Christy M; Gnatuk, Carol L; Estes, Stephanie J; Brindle, Eleanor; Vesper, Hubert W; Botelho, Julianne C; Lee, Peter A; Dodson, William C

2017-01-01

Daughters of women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) are thought to be at increased risk for developing stigmata of the syndrome, but the ontogeny during puberty is uncertain. We phenotyped daughters (n = 76) of mothers with PCOS and daughters (n = 80) from control mothers for reproductive and metabolic parameters characteristic of PCOS. We performed a matched case/control study at Penn State Hershey Medical Center that included non-Hispanic, white girls 4 to 17 years old. We obtained birth history, biometric, ovarian ultrasounds, whole-body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scan for body composition, 2-hour glucose challenged salivary insulin levels, and two timed urinary collections (12 hours overnight and 3 hours in the morning) for gonadotropins and sex steroids. We measured integrated urinary levels of adrenal (dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate) and ovarian [testosterone (TT)] steroids. Other endpoints included integrated salivary insulin levels and urinary luteinizing hormone levels. There were no differences in detection rates or mean levels for gonadotropins and sex steroids in timed urinary collections between PCOS daughters and control daughters, nor were there differences in integrated salivary insulin levels. Results showed that 69% of Tanner 4/5 PCOS daughters vs 31% of control daughters had hirsutism defined as a Ferriman-Gallwey score >8 (P = 0.04). There were no differences in body composition as determined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry between groups in the three major body contents (i.e., bone, lean body mass, and fat) or in ovarian volume between groups. Matched for pubertal stage, PCOS daughters have similar levels of urinary androgens and gonadotropins as well as glucose-challenged salivary insulin levels. Copyright © 2017 by the Endocrine Society

Combined Treatment with Gonadotropin-releasing Hormone Analog and Anabolic Steroid Hormone Increased Pubertal Height Gain and Adult Height in Boys with Early Puberty for Height.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Toshiaki; Naiki, Yasuhiro; Horikawa, Reiko

2012-04-01

Twenty-one boys with a height of 135 cm or less at onset of puberty were treated with a combination of GnRH analog and anabolic steroid hormone, and their pubertal height gain and adult height were compared with those of untreated 29 boys who enter puberty below 135 cm. The mean age at the start of treatment with a GnRH analog, leuprorelin acetate depot (Leuplin(®)) was 12.3 yr, a mean of 1.3 yr after the onset of puberty, and GnRH analog was administered every 3 to 5 wk thereafter for a mean duration of 4.1 yr. The anabolic steroid hormone was started approximately 1 yr after initiation of treatment with the GnRH analog. The mean pubertal height gain from onset of puberty till adult height was significantly greater in the combination treatment group (33.9 cm) than in the untreated group (26.4 cm) (ppenis and pubic hair is promoted by the anabolic steroid hormone, no psychosocial problems arose because of delayed puberty. No clinically significant adverse events appeared. Combined treatment with GnRH analog and anabolic steroid hormone significantly increased height gain during puberty and adult height in boys who entered puberty with a short stature, since the period until epiphyseal closure was extended due to deceleration of the bone age maturation by administration of the GnRH analog and the growth rate at this time was maintained by the anabolic steroid hormone.

Multiple-Factor Based Sparse Urban Travel Time Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinyan Zhu

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The prediction of travel time is challenging given the sparseness of real-time traffic data and the uncertainty of travel, because it is influenced by multiple factors on the congested urban road networks. In our paper, we propose a three-layer neural network from big probe vehicles data incorporating multi-factors to estimate travel time. The procedure includes the following three steps. First, we aggregate data according to the travel time of a single taxi traveling a target link on working days as traffic flows display similar traffic patterns over a weekly cycle. We then extract feature relationships between target and adjacent links at 30 min interval. About 224,830,178 records are extracted from probe vehicles. Second, we design a three-layer artificial neural network model. The number of neurons in input layer is eight, and the number of neurons in output layer is one. Finally, the trained neural network model is used for link travel time prediction. Different factors are included to examine their influence on the link travel time. Our model is verified using historical data from probe vehicles collected from May to July 2014 in Wuhan, China. The results show that we could obtain the link travel time prediction results using the designed artificial neural network model and detect the influence of different factors on link travel time.

Time-dependent fatigue--phenomenology and life prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coffin, L.F.

1979-01-01

The time-dependent fatigue behavior of materials used or considered for use in present and advanced systems for power generation is outlined. A picture is first presented to show how basic mechanisms and phenomenological information relate to the performance of the component under consideration through the so-called local strain approach. By this means life prediction criteria and design rules can be formulated utilizing laboratory test information which is directly translated to predicting the performance of a component. The body of phenomenological information relative to time-dependent fatigue is reviewed. Included are effects of strain range, strain rate and frequency, environment and wave shape, all of which are shown to be important in developing both an understanding and design base for time dependent fatigue. Using this information, some of the current methods being considered for the life prediction of components are reviewed. These include the current ASME code case, frequency-modified fatigue equations, strain range partitioning, the damage function method, frequency separation and damage rate equations. From this review, it is hoped that a better perspective on future directions for basic material science at high temperature can be achieved

The timing of normal puberty and the age limits of sexual precocity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Parent, Anne-Simone; Teilmann, Grete; Juul, Anders

2003-01-01

During the past decade, possible advancement in timing of puberty has been reported in the United States. In addition, early pubertal development and an increased incidence of sexual precocity have been noticed in children, primarily girls, migrating for foreign adoption in several Western European...

The timing of normal puberty and the age limits of sexual precocity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Parent, Anne-Simone; Teilmann, Grete; Juul, Anders

2003-01-01

During the past decade, possible advancement in timing of puberty has been reported in the United States. In addition, early pubertal development and an increased incidence of sexual precocity have been noticed in children, primarily girls, migrating for foreign adoption in several Western Europe...

Real-time stylistic prediction for whole-body human motions.

Science.gov (United States)

Matsubara, Takamitsu; Hyon, Sang-Ho; Morimoto, Jun

2012-01-01

The ability to predict human motion is crucial in several contexts such as human tracking by computer vision and the synthesis of human-like computer graphics. Previous work has focused on off-line processes with well-segmented data; however, many applications such as robotics require real-time control with efficient computation. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called real-time stylistic prediction for whole-body human motions to satisfy these requirements. This approach uses a novel generative model to represent a whole-body human motion including rhythmic motion (e.g., walking) and discrete motion (e.g., jumping). The generative model is composed of a low-dimensional state (phase) dynamics and a two-factor observation model, allowing it to capture the diversity of motion styles in humans. A real-time adaptation algorithm was derived to estimate both state variables and style parameter of the model from non-stationary unlabeled sequential observations. Moreover, with a simple modification, the algorithm allows real-time adaptation even from incomplete (partial) observations. Based on the estimated state and style, a future motion sequence can be accurately predicted. In our implementation, it takes less than 15 ms for both adaptation and prediction at each observation. Our real-time stylistic prediction was evaluated for human walking, running, and jumping behaviors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel

2005-01-01

An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches

Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

2012-01-01

The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

Deleterious effects of obesity on physical fitness in pre-pubertal children.

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Ceschia, Arianna; Giacomini, Stefano; Santarossa, Simone; Rugo, Miriam; Salvadego, Desy; Da Ponte, Alessandro; Driussi, Caterina; Mihaleje, Martina; Poser, Stefano; Lazzer, Stefano

2016-01-01

The prevalence of obesity in children has increased dramatically during the past decades in Europe and understanding physical fitness and its components in children is critical to design and implement effective interventions. The objective of the present study was to analyse the association between physical fitness (aerobic, speed, agility, power, flexibility and balance) and body mass index (BMI) in pre-pubertal children. A total of 2411 healthy schoolchildren (7-11 years) participated in this study. Anthropometric characteristics and body composition were assessed by skinfold thickness. Physical fitness was measured by nine physical fitness tests: endurance running, 20 m running speed, agility, handgrip strength, standing long jump and squat jump, sit and reach, medicine ball forward throw and static balance. No relevant differences were observed between boys and girls regarding anthropometric characteristics, body composition and physical fitness. However, overweight and obese children showed significantly lower physical fitness levels in endurance running, speed and agility (mean: +18.8, +5.5 and +14.5% of time to complete tasks, respectively), lower limb power normalised to body mass (-23.3%) and balance tests (number of falls: +165.5%) than their normal weight counterparts. On the other hand, obesity did not affect handgrip, throwing and flexibility. In conclusion, increased BMI was associated with lower performance capabilities limiting proper motor skill development, which directly affects the ability of children to take on sports skills. Actions undertaken to promote children's wellness and fitness should be prioritised and introduced early in life with the aim of enhancing physical fitness as well as preventing overweight and obesity.

Relationships between urinary biomarkers of phytoestrogens, phthalates, phenols, and pubertal stages in girls

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chakraborty TR

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Tandra R Chakraborty1, Eilliut Alicea1, Sanjoy Chakraborty21Department of Biology, Adelphi University, One South Avenue, Garden City; 2Department of Biological Sciences, New York City College of Technology, New York, NY, USAAbstract: Phytoestrogens, phthalates, and phenols are estrogen-disrupting chemicals that have a pronounced effect at puberty. They are exogenous chemicals that are either plant-derived or man-made, and can alter the functions of the endocrine system and cause various health defects by interfering with the synthesis, metabolism, binding, or cellular responses of natural estrogens. Phytoestrogens, phthalates, and phenols are some of the potent estrogens detectable in urine. Phytoestrogens are plant-derived xenestrogens found in a wide variety of food products, like soy-based food, beverages, several fruits, and vegetables. Exposure to phytoestrogens can delay breast development and further lead to precocious puberty. The effect of phytoestrogens is mediated through estrogen receptors α and β or by binding with early immediate genes, such as jun and fos. Phthalates are multifunctional synthetic chemicals used in plastics, polyvinyl chloride products, cosmetics, hair spray, and children's toys. Phthalates have been shown to cause defeminization, thelarche, precocious puberty, and an increase in breast and pubic hair in pubertal girls. However, reports are also available that show no association of phthalates with precocious puberty in girls. Phthalates can act through a receptor-mediated signaling pathway or affect the production of luteinizing hormone and follicle-stimulating hormone that has a direct effect on estrogen formation. Phenols like bisphenol A are industrial chemicals used mainly in the manufacture of polycarbonates and plastic materials. Bisphenol A has been shown to cause precocious puberty and earlier menarche in pubertal girls. Reports suggest that the neurotoxic effect of bisphenol A can be mediated either by

THE EFFECT OF ATRAZINE ON PUBERTY IN THE MALE WISTAR RATS: AN EVALUATION IN THE PROTOCOL FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF PUBERTAL DEVELOPMENT AND THYROID FUNCTION

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Since atrazine (ATR), a chlorotriazine herbicide, has been shown previously to alter the secretion of luteinizing hormone (LH) and prolactin (PRL) through a direct effect on the central nervous system (CNS), we hypothesized that exposure to ATR in the EDSTAC male pubertal protoco...

Isolated torsion of the fallopian tube in a menopausal woman and a pre-pubertal girl: two case reports

OpenAIRE

Toyoshima, Masafumi; Mori, Hikaru; Kudo, Kei; Yodogawa, Yuki; Sato, Kazuyo; Kudo, Takako; Igeta, Saori; Makino, Hiromitsu; Shima, Takashi; Matsuura, Rui; Ishigaki, Nobuko; Akagi, Kozo; Takeyama, Yoichi; Iwahashi, Hideki; Yoshinaga, Kosuke

2015-01-01

Introduction Isolated torsion of the fallopian tube without an ovarian abnormality is an uncommon event, with an incidence of approximately 1 in 1,500,000 females. Isolated torsion of the fallopian tube occurs mostly in reproductive-aged women, and is thus extremely rare in menopausal women and pre-pubertal girls. Case presentations In case 1, 63-year-old Japanese woman presented with a 2-day history of acute lower abdominal pain. Menopause occurred at 53?years of age. Pelvic ultrasonography ...

PSO-MISMO modeling strategy for multistep-ahead time series prediction.

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Bao, Yukun; Xiong, Tao; Hu, Zhongyi

2014-05-01

Multistep-ahead time series prediction is one of the most challenging research topics in the field of time series modeling and prediction, and is continually under research. Recently, the multiple-input several multiple-outputs (MISMO) modeling strategy has been proposed as a promising alternative for multistep-ahead time series prediction, exhibiting advantages compared with the two currently dominating strategies, the iterated and the direct strategies. Built on the established MISMO strategy, this paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based MISMO modeling strategy, which is capable of determining the number of sub-models in a self-adaptive mode, with varying prediction horizons. Rather than deriving crisp divides with equal-size s prediction horizons from the established MISMO, the proposed PSO-MISMO strategy, implemented with neural networks, employs a heuristic to create flexible divides with varying sizes of prediction horizons and to generate corresponding sub-models, providing considerable flexibility in model construction, which has been validated with simulated and real datasets.

Longitudinal change in the neural bases of adolescent social self-evaluations: effects of age and pubertal development.

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Pfeifer, Jennifer H; Kahn, Lauren E; Merchant, Junaid S; Peake, Shannon J; Veroude, Kim; Masten, Carrie L; Lieberman, Matthew D; Mazziotta, John C; Dapretto, Mirella

2013-04-24

Self-evaluations undergo significant transformation during early adolescence, developing in parallel with the heightened complexity of teenagers' social worlds. Intuitive theories of adolescent development, based in part on animal work, suggest that puberty is associated with neural-level changes that facilitate a "social reorientation" (Nelson et al., 2005). However, direct tests of this hypothesis using neuroimaging are limited in humans. This longitudinal fMRI study examined neurodevelopmental trajectories associated with puberty, self-evaluations, and the presumed social reorientation during the transition from childhood to adolescence. Participants (N = 27, mean age = 10.1 and 13.1 years at time points one and two, respectively) engaged in trait evaluations of two targets (the self and a familiar fictional other), across two domains of competence (social and academic). Responses in ventromedial PFC increased with both age and pubertal development during self-evaluations in the social domain, but not in the academic domain. These results suggest that changes in social self-evaluations are intimately connected with biology, not just peer contexts, and provide important empirical support for the relationship between neurodevelopment, puberty, and social functioning.

State-based Communication on Time-predictable Multicore Processors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Rasmus Bo; Schoeberl, Martin; Sparsø, Jens

2016-01-01

Some real-time systems use a form of task-to-task communication called state-based or sample-based communication that does not impose any flow control among the communicating tasks. The concept is similar to a shared variable, where a reader may read the same value multiple times or may not read...... a given value at all. This paper explores time-predictable implementations of state-based communication in network-on-chip based multicore platforms through five algorithms. With the presented analysis of the implemented algorithms, the communicating tasks of one core can be scheduled independently...... of tasks on other cores. Assuming a specific time-predictable multicore processor, we evaluate how the read and write primitives of the five algorithms contribute to the worst-case execution time of the communicating tasks. Each of the five algorithms has specific capabilities that make them suitable...

Temporal Prediction Errors Affect Short-Term Memory Scanning Response Time.

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Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M

2016-11-01

The Sternberg short-term memory scanning task has been used to unveil cognitive operations involved in time perception. Participants produce time intervals during the task, and the researcher explores how task performance affects interval production - where time estimation error is the dependent variable of interest. The perspective of predictive behavior regards time estimation error as a temporal prediction error (PE), an independent variable that controls cognition, behavior, and learning. Based on this perspective, we investigated whether temporal PEs affect short-term memory scanning. Participants performed temporal predictions while they maintained information in memory. Model inference revealed that PEs affected memory scanning response time independently of the memory-set size effect. We discuss the results within the context of formal and mechanistic models of short-term memory scanning and predictive coding, a Bayes-based theory of brain function. We state the hypothesis that our finding could be associated with weak frontostriatal connections and weak striatal activity.

School performance in pubertal adolescents with dysmenorrhea

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Syamsir Alam

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Background Dysmenorrhea is a common gynecological symptom reported in adolescent girls. Prevalence of the condition has been reported to be 45 - 75%. Absenteeism from work and school as a result of dysmenorrhea is common (13 - 51% of women have been absent at least once, and 5 - 14% are often absent due to the severity of symptoms. Objective To compare school performance in pubertal adolescent girls with and without dysmenorrhea. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in June 2010 in adolescent females aged 12 - 18 years from the Musthafawiyah School, Mandailing Natal district, North Sumatera. Adolescent females with and without dysmenorrhea were recruited for this study. All participants completed questionnaires including age of menarche, length of menstrual cycle, length of bleeding, number of sanitary napkins used daily and school absences. School reports from two consecutive semesters in one year were used to evaluate subjects’ academic performance. An academic score of higher than 7.5 was considered good performance while scores of less than 7.5 were considered poor. We used the chi-square test to analyze differences in school performance between girls with and without dysmenorrhea. Results One hundred and sixteen participants were divided into 2 groups, those with and without dysmenorrhea, of 58 subjects each. We found no significant difference in school performance between the two groups, P=0.176 (95% CI -0.009 to -0.048 and P=0.08 (95%CI -0.052 to 0.024. Conclusion There was no significant difference in school performance of girls with and without dysmenorrhea.

Clinical time series prediction: Toward a hierarchical dynamical system framework.

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Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2015-09-01

Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patients in the training set, and then using it to predict future time series values for the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical time series prediction: towards a hierarchical dynamical system framework

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2014-01-01

Objective Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Materials and methods Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. Results We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patient in the training set, and then applying the model in order to predict future time series values on the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. Conclusion A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive

Associations of Birth Order with Early Adolescent Growth, Pubertal Onset, Blood Pressure and Size: Evidence from Hong Kong's "Children of 1997" Birth Cohort.

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Kwok, Man Ki; Leung, Gabriel M; Schooling, C Mary

2016-01-01

Birth order has been proposed as a cardiovascular risk factor, because the lower birth weight and greater infant weight gain typical of firstborns could programme metabolism detrimentally. We examined the associations of birth order (firstborn or laterborn) with birth weight-for-gestational age, length/height and body mass index (BMI) z-scores during infancy, childhood, and puberty using generalized estimating equations, with age at pubertal onset using interval-censored regression and with age-, sex- and height-standardized blood pressure, height and BMI z-scores at 13 years using linear regression in a population-representative Chinese birth cohort: "Children of 1997" (n = 8,327). Compared with laterborns, firstborns had lower birth weight-for-gestational age (mean difference = -0.18 z-score, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.23, -0.14), lower infant BMI (-0.09 z-score, 95% CI -0.14, -0.04), greater childhood height (0.10 z-score, 95% CI 0.05, 0.14) and BMI (0.08 z-score, 95% CI 0.03, 0.14), but not greater pubertal BMI (0.05 z-score, 95% CI -0.02, 0.11), adjusted for sex, parental age, birthplace, education and income. Firstborns had earlier onset of pubic hair (time ratio = 0.988, 95% CI 0.980, 0.996), but not breast or genitalia, development. Firstborns had greater BMI (0.07 z-score, 95% CI 0.002, 0.15), but not height (0.05 z-score, 95% CI -0.01, 0.11), at 13 years, but similar blood pressure. Differences by birth order continue into early adolescence with firstborns being heavier with earlier pubic hair development, which could indicate long-term cardiovascular risk.

Associations of Birth Order with Early Adolescent Growth, Pubertal Onset, Blood Pressure and Size: Evidence from Hong Kong's "Children of 1997" Birth Cohort.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Man Ki Kwok

Full Text Available Birth order has been proposed as a cardiovascular risk factor, because the lower birth weight and greater infant weight gain typical of firstborns could programme metabolism detrimentally.We examined the associations of birth order (firstborn or laterborn with birth weight-for-gestational age, length/height and body mass index (BMI z-scores during infancy, childhood, and puberty using generalized estimating equations, with age at pubertal onset using interval-censored regression and with age-, sex- and height-standardized blood pressure, height and BMI z-scores at 13 years using linear regression in a population-representative Chinese birth cohort: "Children of 1997" (n = 8,327.Compared with laterborns, firstborns had lower birth weight-for-gestational age (mean difference = -0.18 z-score, 95% confidence interval (CI -0.23, -0.14, lower infant BMI (-0.09 z-score, 95% CI -0.14, -0.04, greater childhood height (0.10 z-score, 95% CI 0.05, 0.14 and BMI (0.08 z-score, 95% CI 0.03, 0.14, but not greater pubertal BMI (0.05 z-score, 95% CI -0.02, 0.11, adjusted for sex, parental age, birthplace, education and income. Firstborns had earlier onset of pubic hair (time ratio = 0.988, 95% CI 0.980, 0.996, but not breast or genitalia, development. Firstborns had greater BMI (0.07 z-score, 95% CI 0.002, 0.15, but not height (0.05 z-score, 95% CI -0.01, 0.11, at 13 years, but similar blood pressure.Differences by birth order continue into early adolescence with firstborns being heavier with earlier pubic hair development, which could indicate long-term cardiovascular risk.

PREDICTING EVAPORATION RATES AND TIMES FOR SPILLS OF CHEMICAL MIXTURES

Science.gov (United States)

Spreadsheet and short-cut methods have been developed for predicting evaporation rates and evaporation times for spills (and constrained baths) of chemical mixtures. Steady-state and time-varying predictions of evaporation rates can be made for six-component mixtures, includ...

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

He, Yuning

2015-01-01

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

Scalable Prediction of Energy Consumption using Incremental Time Series Clustering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simmhan, Yogesh; Noor, Muhammad Usman

2013-10-09

Time series datasets are a canonical form of high velocity Big Data, and often generated by pervasive sensors, such as found in smart infrastructure. Performing predictive analytics on time series data can be computationally complex, and requires approximation techniques. In this paper, we motivate this problem using a real application from the smart grid domain. We propose an incremental clustering technique, along with a novel affinity score for determining cluster similarity, which help reduce the prediction error for cumulative time series within a cluster. We evaluate this technique, along with optimizations, using real datasets from smart meters, totaling ~700,000 data points, and show the efficacy of our techniques in improving the prediction error of time series data within polynomial time.

Trip-oriented travel time prediction (TOTTP) with historical vehicle trajectories

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Tao; Li, Xiang; Claramunt, Christophe

2018-06-01

Accurate travel time prediction is undoubtedly of importance to both traffic managers and travelers. In highly-urbanized areas, trip-oriented travel time prediction (TOTTP) is valuable to travelers rather than traffic managers as the former usually expect to know the travel time of a trip which may cross over multiple road sections. There are two obstacles to the development of TOTTP, including traffic complexity and traffic data coverage.With large scale historical vehicle trajectory data and meteorology data, this research develops a BPNN-based approach through integrating multiple factors affecting trip travel time into a BPNN model to predict trip-oriented travel time for OD pairs in urban network. Results of experiments demonstrate that it helps discover the dominate trends of travel time changes daily and weekly, and the impact of weather conditions is non-trivial.

Phthalate and bisphenol A exposure during in utero windows of susceptibility in relation to reproductive hormones and pubertal development in girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Watkins, Deborah J; Sánchez, Brisa N; Téllez-Rojo, Martha Maria; Lee, Joyce M; Mercado-García, Adriana; Blank-Goldenberg, Clara; Peterson, Karen E; Meeker, John D

2017-11-01

Over the past several decades, the age of pubertal onset in girls has shifted downward worldwide. As early pubertal onset is associated with increased risky behavior and psychological issues during adolescence and cardiometabolic disease and cancer in adulthood, this is an important public health concern. Exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals during critical windows of in utero development may play a role in this trend. Our objective was to investigate trimester-specific phthalate and BPA exposure in relation to pubertal development among girls in the Early Life Exposure in Mexico to Environmental Toxicants (ELEMENT) birth cohort. We measured maternal urinary phthalate metabolites and BPA in samples collected during the first, second, and third trimesters of pregnancy. To assess reproductive development among their female children, we measured serum testosterone, estradiol, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-S), inhibin B, and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), and assessed sexual maturation, including Tanner staging for breast and pubic hair development and menarche status, at age 8-13 years (n = 120). We used linear and logistic regression to examine measures of trimester-specific in utero exposure as predictors of peripubertal hormone levels and pubertal onset, respectively. In secondary analyses, we evaluated estimated exposure at the midpoint of the first trimester and rates of change in exposure across pregnancy in relation to outcomes. Several phthalate metabolites measured throughout in utero development were associated with higher serum testosterone concentrations, while a number of metabolites measured in the third trimester were associated with higher DHEA-S. For example, an interquartile range (IQR) increase in mean monoethyl phthalate (MEP) levels across pregnancy was associated with 44% higher peripubertal testosterone (95% CI: 13-83%), while an IQR increase in di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate metabolites (ΣDEHP) specifically in the third trimester

Mental Health Problems of Iranian Female Adolescents and Its Association with Pubertal Development: A Nationwide Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aria Sotoudeh

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Mental health problems including emotional and behavioral problems during puberty may be under influence of different risk factors including cultures, living in urban or rural areas and ethnic factors which may vary between different countries. The main aim of this study is to investigate the profile of emotional and behavioral problems and the role of factors such as age, stage of puberty, ethnicity, rurality and living in urban area, as risk factors in Iranian girls. As a part of a large national study we evaluated the emotional and behavioral problems in different stages of puberty in a community sample of Iranian adolescent girls from public schools that were selected by clustered random sampling method. In all subjects, demographic characteristics, and pubertal stages were measured. Emotional and behavioral problems were evaluated using Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ. The associations of age, pubertal development indices, socioeconomic and demographic factors with the behavioral problems were assessed. A total number of 4576 students enrolled the study and responded to the questions. The mean age of participants was 13.83 2.19 years. The mean total score of difficulties in participants was 14.34 5.81. According to these results 813 (17.8% adolescents had total problem scores higher than Goodmans cutoff points and the most frequent problem domain was conduct problems (20.5%. According to the results the most related variable with the total difficulty score of SDQ were ethnicity, residency in urban areas and development of menstrual cycle respectively. The results of this study showed that the most correlated factors with mental health problems in Iranian girls during puberty are ethnicity, urbanity and development of menstrual cycle.

Association of Adiposity Genetic Variants With Menarche Timing in 92,105 Women of European Descent

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fernández-Rhodes, L.; Demerath, E.W.; Cousminer, D.L.; Tao, R.; Dreyfus, J.G.; Esko, T.; Smith, A.V.; Gudnason, V.; Harris, T.B.; Launer, L.; McArdle, P.F.; Yerges-Armstrong, L.M.; Elks, C.E.; Strachan, D.P.; Kutalik, Z.; Vollenweider, P.; Feenstra, B.; Boyd, H.A.; Metspalu, A.; Mihailov, E.; Broer, L.; Zillikens, M.C.; Oostra, B.A.; van Duijn, C.M.; Lunetta, K.L.; Perry, J.R.; Murray, A.; Koller, D.L.; Lai, D.; Corre, T.; Toniolo, D.; Albrecht, E.; Stöckl, D.; Grallert, H.; Gieger, C.; Hayward, C.; Polasek, O.; Rudan, I.; Wilson, J.F.; He, C.; Kraft, P.; Hu, F.B.; Hunter, D.J.; Hottenga, J.J.; Willemsen, G.; Boomsma, D.I.; Byrne, E.M.; Martin, N.G.; Montgomery, G.W.; Warrington, N.M.; Pennell, C.E.; Stolk, L.; Visser, J.A.; Hofman, A.; Uitterlinden, A.G.; Rivadeneira, F.; Lin, P.; Fisher, S.L.; Bierut, L.J.; Crisponi, L.; Porcu, E.; Mangino, M.; Zhai, G.; Spector, T.D.; Buring, J.E.; Rose, L.M.; Ridker, P.M.; Poole, C.; Hirschhorn, J.N.; Murabito, J.M.; Chasman, D.I.; Widén, E.; North, K.E.; Ong, K.K.; Franceschini, N.

2013-01-01

Obesity is of global health concern. There are well-described inverse relationships between female pubertal timing and obesity. Recent genome-wide association studies of age at menarche identified several obesity-related variants. Using data from the ReproGen Consortium, we employed meta-analytical

Real-time eSports Match Result Prediction

OpenAIRE

Yang, Yifan; Qin, Tian; Lei, Yu-Heng

2016-01-01

In this paper, we try to predict the winning team of a match in the multiplayer eSports game Dota 2. To address the weaknesses of previous work, we consider more aspects of prior (pre-match) features from individual players' match history, as well as real-time (during-match) features at each minute as the match progresses. We use logistic regression, the proposed Attribute Sequence Model, and their combinations as the prediction models. In a dataset of 78362 matches where 20631 matches contai...

Fluoride exposure changed the structure and the expressions of HSP related genes in testes of pubertal rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yangfei; Zhao, Jun; Wang, Jinming; Wang, Jundong

2017-10-01

Previous studies have indicated that fluoride exposure damaged the male reproductive function; however, the cellular mechanism of fluoride-induced testicular toxicity is still unclear. In this study, twenty-two female pregnant Wistar rats were allotted randomly to two groups: control (deionized water) and sodium fluoride (NaF, contain F - : 67.86 mg/L) groups. After delivery, the dosage was continued for 15 weeks for puppies. Twelve rats in each group were tested at 6 and 9 (pubertal); 12 and 15 (mature) weeks of age. Our results suggested that organ coefficient of epididymis was significantly decreased in the mature (12 and 15 week-old) rats. Epididymal sperm abnormality and femur fluoride concentration were increased with the concomitant decrease in sperm motility and concentration in these experimental periods. Compared to the control, in the NaF group, the seminiferous tubules of each age were reduced in terms of diameter and thickness. The sperm cells were lost and shedding and finally disappeared after 9 weeks. mRNA and protein levels of HSP27 and 90 were decreased with a concomitant increase in HSP70 and HSF mRNA and protein levels in NaF exposed rats. The mRNA and protein levels of HSP27 and HSF (only mRNA) were significantly increased in NaF treated rats at 9 and 15 weeks of age, respectively. In summary, these results emphasize that NaF induces testicular and sperm abnormalities through the involvement of HSPs especially during the pubertal period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CAT-PUMA: CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdélyi, Robert

2018-04-01

CAT-PUMA (CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms) quickly and accurately predicts the arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) of CME arrival time. The software was trained via detailed analysis of CME features and solar wind parameters using 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full-halo CMEs and uses algorithms of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) to make its predictions, which can be made within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME.

mtDNA copy number in oocytes of different sizes from individual pre- and post-pubertal pigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Hanne Skovsgaard; Løvendahl, Peter; Larsen, Knud Erik

2014-01-01

from ovaries of 10 pre- and 10 post-pubertal pigs. Cumulus cells were removed and the oocytes were measured (inside-ZP-diameter). Oocytes were transferred to DNAase-free tubes, snap-frozen, and stored at –80°C. The genes ND1 and COX1 were used to determine the mtDNA copy number. Plasmid preparations...... Reproduction 131, 233–245). However, the correlation between size and mtDNA copy number in single oocytes has not been determined. This study describes the relation between oocytes of defined diameters from individual pre- and postpubertal pigs and mtDNA copy number. Cumulus-oocyte complexes were aspirated...

Dynamic Bus Travel Time Prediction Models on Road with Multiple Bus Routes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Cong; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Lu, Qing-Chang; Sun, Jian

2015-01-01

Accurate and real-time travel time information for buses can help passengers better plan their trips and minimize waiting times. A dynamic travel time prediction model for buses addressing the cases on road with multiple bus routes is proposed in this paper, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kalman filtering-based algorithm. In the proposed model, the well-trained SVM model predicts the baseline bus travel times from the historical bus trip data; the Kalman filtering-based dynamic algorithm can adjust bus travel times with the latest bus operation information and the estimated baseline travel times. The performance of the proposed dynamic model is validated with the real-world data on road with multiple bus routes in Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed dynamic model is feasible and applicable for bus travel time prediction and has the best prediction performance among all the five models proposed in the study in terms of prediction accuracy on road with multiple bus routes.

Dynamic Bus Travel Time Prediction Models on Road with Multiple Bus Routes

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Cong; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Lu, Qing-Chang; Sun, Jian

2015-01-01

Accurate and real-time travel time information for buses can help passengers better plan their trips and minimize waiting times. A dynamic travel time prediction model for buses addressing the cases on road with multiple bus routes is proposed in this paper, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kalman filtering-based algorithm. In the proposed model, the well-trained SVM model predicts the baseline bus travel times from the historical bus trip data; the Kalman filtering-based dynamic algorithm can adjust bus travel times with the latest bus operation information and the estimated baseline travel times. The performance of the proposed dynamic model is validated with the real-world data on road with multiple bus routes in Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed dynamic model is feasible and applicable for bus travel time prediction and has the best prediction performance among all the five models proposed in the study in terms of prediction accuracy on road with multiple bus routes. PMID:26294903

Short-term lower-body plyometric training improves whole body BMC, bone metabolic markers, and physical fitness in early pubertal male basketball players.

Science.gov (United States)

Zribi, Anis; Zouch, Mohamed; Chaari, Hamada; Bouajina, Elyes; Ben Nasr, Hela; Zaouali, Monia; Tabka, Zouhair

2014-02-01

The effects of a 9-week lower-body plyometric training program on bone mass, bone markers and physical fitness was examined in 51 early pubertal male basketball players divided randomly into a plyometric group (PG: 25 participants) and a control group (CG: 26 participants). Areal bone mineral density (aBMD), bone mineral content (BMC), and bone area (BA) in the whole body, L2-L4 vertebrae, and in total hip, serum levels of osteocalcin (Oc) and C-terminal telopeptide fragment of Type I collagen (CTx), jump, sprint and power abilities were assessed at baseline and 9 weeks. Group comparisons were done by independent student's t-test between means and analyses of (ANOVA) and covariance (ANCOVA), adjusting for baseline values. PG experienced a significant increase in Oc (p BMC and BA in any measured site, except in whole body BMC of the PG. A positive correlation was observed between percentage increase (Δ%) of physical fitness and those of (Oc) for the PG. In summary, biweekly sessions of lower body plyometric training program were successful for improving whole body BMC, bone formation marker (Oc) and physical fitness in early pubertal male basketball players.

Acute ischaemic stroke prediction from physiological time series patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qing Zhang,

2013-05-01

Full Text Available BackgroundStroke is one of the major diseases with human mortality. Recent clinical research has indicated that early changes in common physiological variables represent a potential therapeutic target, thus the manipulation of these variables may eventually yield an effective way to optimise stroke recovery.AimsWe examined correlations between physiological parameters of patients during the first 48 hours after a stroke, and their stroke outcomes after 3 months. We wanted to discover physiological determinants that could be used to improve health outcomes by supporting the medical decisions that need to be made early on a patient’s stroke experience.Method We applied regression-based machine learning techniques to build a prediction algorithm that can forecast 3-month outcomes from initial physiological time series data during the first 48 hours after stroke. In our method, not only did we use statistical characteristics as traditional prediction features, but also we adopted trend patterns of time series data as new key features.ResultsWe tested our prediction method on a real physiological data set of stroke patients. The experiment results revealed an average high precision rate: 90%. We also tested prediction methods only considering statistical characteristics of physiological data, and concluded an average precision rate: 71%.ConclusionWe demonstrated that using trend pattern features in prediction methods improved the accuracy of stroke outcome prediction. Therefore, trend patterns of physiological time series data have an important role in the early treatment of patients with acute ischaemic stroke.

Chaotic time series. Part II. System Identification and Prediction

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Bjørn Lillekjendlie

1994-10-01

Full Text Available This paper is the second in a series of two, and describes the current state of the art in modeling and prediction of chaotic time series. Sample data from deterministic non-linear systems may look stochastic when analysed with linear methods. However, the deterministic structure may be uncovered and non-linear models constructed that allow improved prediction. We give the background for such methods from a geometrical point of view, and briefly describe the following types of methods: global polynomials, local polynomials, multilayer perceptrons and semi-local methods including radial basis functions. Some illustrative examples from known chaotic systems are presented, emphasising the increase in prediction error with time. We compare some of the algorithms with respect to prediction accuracy and storage requirements, and list applications of these methods to real data from widely different areas.

A hybrid scheme for real-time prediction of bus trajectories

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fadaei, Masoud; Cats, O.; Bhaskar, Ashish

2016-01-01

The uncertainty associated with public transport services can be partially counteracted by developing real-time models to predict downstream service conditions. In this study, a hybrid approach for predicting bus trajectories by integrating multiple predictors is proposed. The prediction model

Percentiles of fasting serum insulin, glucose, HbA1c and HOMA-IR in pre-pubertal normal weight European children from the IDEFICS cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Peplies, J; Jiménez-Pavón, D; Savva, S C; Buck, C; Günther, K; Fraterman, A; Russo, P; Iacoviello, L; Veidebaum, T; Tornaritis, M; De Henauw, S; Mårild, S; Molnár, D; Moreno, L A; Ahrens, W

2014-09-01

The aim of this study is to present age- and sex-specific reference values of insulin, glucose, glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and the homeostasis model assessment to quantify insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) for pre-pubertal children. The reference population consists of 7074 normal weight 3- to 10.9-year-old pre-pubertal children from eight European countries who participated in at least one wave of the IDEFICS ('identification and prevention of dietary- and lifestyle-induced health effects in children and infants') surveys (2007-2010) and for whom standardised laboratory measurements were obtained. Percentile curves of insulin (measured by an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay), glucose, HbA1c and HOMA-IR were calculated as a function of age stratified by sex using the general additive model for location scale and shape (GAMLSS) method. Levels of insulin, fasting glucose and HOMA-IR continuously show an increasing trend with age, whereas HbA1c shows an upward trend only beyond the age of 8 years. Insulin and HOMA-IR values are higher in girls of all age groups, whereas glucose values are slightly higher in boys. Median serum levels of insulin range from 17.4 and 13.2 pmol l(-1) in 3-HOMA-IR, median values range from 0.5 and 0.4 in 3-<3.5-year-old girls and boys to 1.7 and 1.4 in 10.5-<11-year-old girls and boys, respectively. Our study provides the first standardised reference values for an international European children's population and provides the, up to now, largest data set of healthy pre-pubertal children to model reference percentiles for markers of insulin resistance. Our cohort shows higher values of Hb1Ac as compared with a single Swedish study while our percentiles for the other glucose metabolic markers are in good accordance with previous studies.

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hanbong; Malik, Waqar; Jung, Yoon C.

2016-01-01

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Time-sensitive Customer Churn Prediction based on PU Learning

OpenAIRE

Wang, Li; Chen, Chaochao; Zhou, Jun; Li, Xiaolong

2018-01-01

With the fast development of Internet companies throughout the world, customer churn has become a serious concern. To better help the companies retain their customers, it is important to build a customer churn prediction model to identify the customers who are most likely to churn ahead of time. In this paper, we propose a Time-sensitive Customer Churn Prediction (TCCP) framework based on Positive and Unlabeled (PU) learning technique. Specifically, we obtain the recent data by shortening the...

An Unexpected Cause of Pelvic Pain in a Pubertal Case: Herlyn-Werner-Wunderlich Syndrome

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Yasemin Kayadibi

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Uterovaginal duplication with imperforated hemivagina is a rare type of Mullerian anomaly. If ipsilateral renal agenesis is associated with this complex genital malformation, it is called Herlyn-Werner-Wunderlich syndrome. Clinical presentations of this syndrome include pelvic pain and mass effect due to obstructed hemivagina in pubertal adolescents and adults. Hematocolpos, even after menstruation period, leads to misdiagnosis. Laparotomy is the gold standard for the diagnosis, however, magnetic resonance imaging has an accuracy upto 100% in evaluating uterovajinal anatomy. In this article, we aimed to present ultrasonographic and magnetic resonance imaging findings in a patient with Herlyn-Werner-Wun derlich syndrome who presented with cyclic pelvic pain. (The Me­di­cal Bul­le­tin of Ha­se­ki 2014; 52: 60-3

Financial time series prediction using spiking neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, David; Hussain, Abir Jaafar; Tawfik, Hissam

2014-01-01

In this paper a novel application of a particular type of spiking neural network, a Polychronous Spiking Network, was used for financial time series prediction. It is argued that the inherent temporal capabilities of this type of network are suited to non-stationary data such as this. The performance of the spiking neural network was benchmarked against three systems: two "traditional", rate-encoded, neural networks; a Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network and a Dynamic Ridge Polynomial neural network, and a standard Linear Predictor Coefficients model. For this comparison three non-stationary and noisy time series were used: IBM stock data; US/Euro exchange rate data, and the price of Brent crude oil. The experiments demonstrated favourable prediction results for the Spiking Neural Network in terms of Annualised Return and prediction error for 5-Step ahead predictions. These results were also supported by other relevant metrics such as Maximum Drawdown and Signal-To-Noise ratio. This work demonstrated the applicability of the Polychronous Spiking Network to financial data forecasting and this in turn indicates the potential of using such networks over traditional systems in difficult to manage non-stationary environments.

Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

2010-01-01

Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

An approach to constitutional delay of growth and puberty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashraf T Soliman

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Constitutional delay of growth and puberty is a transient state of hypogonadotropic hypogonadism associated with prolongation of childhood phase of growth, delayed skeletal maturation, delayed and attenuated pubertal growth spurt, and relatively low insulin-like growth factor-1 secretion. In a considerable number of cases, the final adult height (Ht does not reach the mid-parental or the predicted adult Ht for the individual, with some degree of disproportionately short trunk. In the pre-pubertal male, testosterone (T replacement therapy can be used to induce pubertal development, accelerate growth and relieve the psychosocial complaints of the adolescents. However, some issues in the management are still unresolved. These include type, optimal timing, dose and duration of sex steroid treatment and the possible use of adjunctive or alternate therapy including: oxandrolone, aromatase inhibitors and human growth hormone.

Lazy Spilling for a Time-Predictable Stack Cache: Implementation and Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abbaspourseyedi, Sahar; Jordan, Alexander; Brandner, Florian

2014-01-01

The growing complexity of modern computer architectures increasingly complicates the prediction of the run-time behavior of software. For real-time systems, where a safe estimation of the program's worst-case execution time is needed, time-predictable computer architectures promise to resolve......, we show that lazy spilling can be analyzed with little extra effort, which benefits the worst-case spilling behavior that is relevant for a real-time system....

Data-aware remaining time prediction of business process instances

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Polato, M.; Sperduti, A.; Burattin, A.; Leoni, de M.

2014-01-01

Accurate prediction of the completion time of a business process instance would constitute a valuable tool when managing processes under service level agreement constraints. Such prediction, however, is a very challenging task. A wide variety of factors could influence the trend of a process

Predicting travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peer, S.; Koopmans, C.; Verhoef, E.T.

2010-01-01

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are not taken into account in many cost-benefit-analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules on how variability can be predicted, based on travel time data from Dutch highways.

Multiband Prediction Model for Financial Time Series with Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition

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Md. Rabiul Islam

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a subband approach to financial time series prediction. Multivariate empirical mode decomposition (MEMD is employed here for multiband representation of multichannel financial time series together. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA model is used in prediction of individual subband of any time series data. Then all the predicted subband signals are summed up to obtain the overall prediction. The ARMA model works better for stationary signal. With multiband representation, each subband becomes a band-limited (narrow band signal and hence better prediction is achieved. The performance of the proposed MEMD-ARMA model is compared with classical EMD, discrete wavelet transform (DWT, and with full band ARMA model in terms of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR and mean square error (MSE between the original and predicted time series. The simulation results show that the MEMD-ARMA-based method performs better than the other methods.

Endocrine and molecular investigations in a cohort of 25 adolescent males with prominent/persistent pubertal gynecomastia.

Science.gov (United States)

Paris, F; Gaspari, L; Mbou, F; Philibert, P; Audran, F; Morel, Y; Biason-Lauber, A; Sultan, C

2016-03-01

Pubertal gynecomastia is a common condition observed in up to 65% of adolescent males. It is usually idiopathic and tends to regress within 1-2 years. In this descriptive cross-sectional study, we investigated 25 adolescent males with prominent (>B3) and/or persistent (>2 years) pubertal gynecomastia (P/PPG) to determine whether a hormonal/genetic defect might underline this condition. Endocrine investigation revealed the absence of hormonal disturbance for 18 boys (72%). Three patients presented Klinefelter syndrome and three a partial androgen insensitivity syndrome (PAIS) as a result of p.Ala646Asp and p.Ala45Gly mutations of the androgen receptor gene. The last patient showed a 17α-hydroxylase/17,20-lyase deficiency as a result of a compound heterozygous mutation of the CYP17A1 gene leading to p.Pro35Thr(P35T) and p.Arg239Stop(R239X) in the P450c17 protein. Enzymatic activity was analyzed: the mutant protein bearing the premature stop codon R239X showed a complete loss of 17α-hydroxylase and 17,20-lyase activity. The mutant P35T seemed to retain 15-20% of 17α-hydroxylase and about 8-10% of 17,20-lyase activity. This work demonstrates that P/PPG had an endocrine/genetic cause in 28% of our cases. PAIS may be expressed only by isolated gynecomastia as well as by 17α-hydroxylase/17,20-lyase deficiency. Isolated P/PPG is not always a 'physiological' condition and should thus be investigated through adequate endocrine and genetic investigations, even though larger studies are needed to better determine the real prevalence of genetic defects in such patients. © 2016 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

Real-time numerical shake prediction and updating for earthquake early warning

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Huang, Yandan

2017-12-01

Ground motion prediction is important for earthquake early warning systems, because the region's peak ground motion indicates the potential disaster. In order to predict the peak ground motion quickly and precisely with limited station wave records, we propose a real-time numerical shake prediction and updating method. Our method first predicts the ground motion based on the ground motion prediction equation after P waves detection of several stations, denoted as the initial prediction. In order to correct the prediction error of the initial prediction, an updating scheme based on real-time simulation of wave propagation is designed. Data assimilation technique is incorporated to predict the distribution of seismic wave energy precisely. Radiative transfer theory and Monte Carlo simulation are used for modeling wave propagation in 2-D space, and the peak ground motion is calculated as quickly as possible. Our method has potential to predict shakemap, making the potential disaster be predicted before the real disaster happens. 2008 M S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed method.

Time and activity sequence prediction of business process instances

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Polato, Mirko; Sperduti, Alessandro; Burattin, Andrea

2018-01-01

The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances, with respect to different features, such as the expected completion time, would allow business managers to timely counteract to undesired situations, in order to prevent losses. Therefore, the ability to accurately predict...... future features of running business process instances would be a very helpful aid when managing processes, especially under service level agreement constraints. However, making such accurate forecasts is not easy: many factors may influence the predicted features. Many approaches have been proposed...

Regulation of gonadal sex ratios and pubertal development by the thyroid endocrine system in zebrafish (Danio rerio).

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Prakash; Patiño, Reynaldo

2013-04-01

We examined associations between thyroid condition, gonadal sex and pubertal development in zebrafish. Seventy-two-hour postfertilization larvae were reared in untreated medium or in the presence of goitrogens (sodium perchlorate, 0.82 mM; methimazole, 0.15 and 0.3 mM) or thyroxine (1 and 10 nM) for 30 days. Thyrocyte height, gonadal sex and gonadal development were histologically determined at 45 and 60 days postfertilization (dpf). Thyrocyte hypertrophy, an index of hypothyroidism, was observed at 45 and 60 dpf in perchlorate-treated but only at 45 dpf in methimazole-treated fish. Similarly, gonadal sex ratios were biased toward ovaries relative to control animals at 45 and 60 dpf in perchlorate-treated fish but only at 45 dpf in methimazole-treated fish. Gonadal sex ratios were biased toward testes at 45 and 60 dpf in thyroxine-treated fish. Spermatogenesis was delayed in testes from goitrogen-treated fish at 60 dpf relative to control values, but was unaffected in testes from thyroxine-treated individuals. Oogenesis seemed to be nonspecifically delayed in all treatments relative to control at 60 dpf. This study confirmed the previously reported association between hypothyroid condition and ovarian-skewed ratios, and hyperthyroid condition and testicular-skewed ratios, and also showed that male pubertal development is specifically delayed by experimental hypothyroidism. The simultaneous recovery from the hypothyroid and ovary-inducing effects of methimazole by 60 dpf (27 days post-treatment) suggests that the ovary-skewing effect of goitrogens is reversible when thyroid conditions return to basal levels before developmental commitment of gonadal sex. Conversely, the masculinizing effect of hyperthyroidism seems to be stable and perhaps permanent. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Regulation of gonadal sex ratios and pubertal development by the thyroid endocrine system in zebrafish (Danio rerio)

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Prakash; Patino, Reynaldo

2013-01-01

We examined associations between thyroid condition, gonadal sex and pubertal development in zebrafish. Seventy-two-hour postfertilization larvae were reared in untreated medium or in the presence of goitrogens (sodium perchlorate, 0.82 mM; methimazole, 0.15 and 0.3 mM) or thyroxine (1 and 10 nM) for 30 days. Thyrocyte height, gonadal sex and gonadal development were histologically determined at 45 and 60 days postfertilization (dpf). Thyrocyte hypertrophy, an index of hypothyroidism, was observed at 45 and 60 dpf in perchlorate-treated but only at 45 dpf in methimazole-treated fish. Similarly, gonadal sex ratios were biased toward ovaries relative to control animals at 45 and 60 dpf in perchlorate-treated fish but only at 45 dpf in methimazole-treated fish. Gonadal sex ratios were biased toward testes at 45 and 60 dpf in thyroxine-treated fish. Spermatogenesis was delayed in testes from goitrogen-treated fish at 60 dpf relative to control values, but was unaffected in testes from thyroxine-treated individuals. Oogenesis seemed to be nonspecifically delayed in all treatments relative to control at 60 dpf. This study confirmed the previously reported association between hypothyroid condition and ovarian-skewed ratios, and hyperthyroid condition and testicular-skewed ratios, and also showed that male pubertal development is specifically delayed by experimental hypothyroidism. The simultaneous recovery from the hypothyroid and ovary-inducing effects of methimazole by 60 dpf (27 days post-treatment) suggests that the ovary-skewing effect of goitrogens is reversible when thyroid conditions return to basal levels before developmental commitment of gonadal sex. Conversely, the masculinizing effect of hyperthyroidism seems to be stable and perhaps permanent.

Predictive event modelling in multicenter clinical trials with waiting time to response.

Science.gov (United States)

Anisimov, Vladimir V

2011-01-01

A new analytic statistical technique for predictive event modeling in ongoing multicenter clinical trials with waiting time to response is developed. It allows for the predictive mean and predictive bounds for the number of events to be constructed over time, accounting for the newly recruited patients and patients already at risk in the trial, and for different recruitment scenarios. For modeling patient recruitment, an advanced Poisson-gamma model is used, which accounts for the variation in recruitment over time, the variation in recruitment rates between different centers and the opening or closing of some centers in the future. A few models for event appearance allowing for 'recurrence', 'death' and 'lost-to-follow-up' events and using finite Markov chains in continuous time are considered. To predict the number of future events over time for an ongoing trial at some interim time, the parameters of the recruitment and event models are estimated using current data and then the predictive recruitment rates in each center are adjusted using individual data and Bayesian re-estimation. For a typical scenario (continue to recruit during some time interval, then stop recruitment and wait until a particular number of events happens), the closed-form expressions for the predictive mean and predictive bounds of the number of events at any future time point are derived under the assumptions of Markovian behavior of the event progression. The technique is efficiently applied to modeling different scenarios for some ongoing oncology trials. Case studies are considered. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Real-time prediction of the occurrence of GLE events

Science.gov (United States)

Núñez, Marlon; Reyes-Santiago, Pedro J.; Malandraki, Olga E.

2017-07-01

A tool for predicting the occurrence of Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events using the UMASEP scheme is presented. This real-time tool, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, is based on the detection of the magnetic connection, along which protons arrive in the near-Earth environment, by estimating the lag correlation between the time derivatives of 1 min soft X-ray flux (SXR) and 1 min near-Earth proton fluxes observed by the GOES satellites. Unlike current GLE warning systems, this tool can predict GLE events before the detection by any neutron monitor (NM) station. The prediction performance measured for the period from 1986 to 2016 is presented for two consecutive periods, because of their notable difference in performance. For the 2000-2016 period, this prediction tool obtained a probability of detection (POD) of 53.8% (7 of 13 GLE events), a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 30.0%, and average warning times (AWT) of 8 min with respect to the first NM station's alert and 15 min to the GLE Alert Plus's warning. We have tested the model by replacing the GOES proton data with SOHO/EPHIN proton data, and the results are similar in terms of POD, FAR, and AWT for the same period. The paper also presents a comparison with a GLE warning system.

Time Series Outlier Detection Based on Sliding Window Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yufeng Yu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In order to detect outliers in hydrological time series data for improving data quality and decision-making quality related to design, operation, and management of water resources, this research develops a time series outlier detection method for hydrologic data that can be used to identify data that deviate from historical patterns. The method first built a forecasting model on the history data and then used it to predict future values. Anomalies are assumed to take place if the observed values fall outside a given prediction confidence interval (PCI, which can be calculated by the predicted value and confidence coefficient. The use of PCI as threshold is mainly on the fact that it considers the uncertainty in the data series parameters in the forecasting model to address the suitable threshold selection problem. The method performs fast, incremental evaluation of data as it becomes available, scales to large quantities of data, and requires no preclassification of anomalies. Experiments with different hydrologic real-world time series showed that the proposed methods are fast and correctly identify abnormal data and can be used for hydrologic time series analysis.

Predictors of growth and decline in leisure time physical activity from adolescence to adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Wichstrøm, Lars; von Soest, Tilmann; Kvalem, Ingela Lundin

2013-07-01

To study the predictors of change in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) from adolescence to young adulthood. A nationally representative sample of 3,251 Norwegian students between 12 and 19 years of age were initially surveyed, and follow-up surveys were conducted three times over a 13-year period. The initial response rate was 97%, and retention rates for the three follow-up sessions were 92%, 84%, and 82%, respectively. Four groups of predictors were assessed: sociodemographics, such as gender, age, parental socioeconomic status, pubertal status, and grades; previous LTPA, such as the amount of LTPA and sports club membership; athletic self-concept and depressive symptoms; and other health behaviors, such as smoking, dieting, and body mass. Autoregressive cross-lagged analyses were supplemented with latent growth-curve analyses. Membership in a sports club and a positive athletic self-concept in adolescence predicted a high level of LTPA in adulthood, whereas smoking tobacco, high BMI, and depressive symptoms in adolescence predicted low levels of LTPA. Engaging adolescents in organized sports and enhancing adolescents' athletic self-concept may increase the number of adults who are physically active. Preventive efforts to reduce tobacco consumption, obesity, and depression in adolescence may also contribute to an increase in adult LTPA. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Excessive Refined Carbohydrates and Scarce Micronutrients Intakes Increase Inflammatory Mediators and Insulin Resistance in Prepubertal and Pubertal Obese Children Independently of Obesity

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Mardia López-Alarcón

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Low-grade inflammation is the link between obesity and insulin resistance. Because physiologic insulin resistance occurs at puberty, obese pubertal children are at higher risk for insulin resistance. Excessive diets in refined carbohydrates and saturated fats are risk factors for insulin resistance, but calcium, magnesium, vitamin-D, and the omega-3 fatty acids likely protect against inflammation and insulin resistance. Objective. To analyze interactions among dietary saturated fat, refined carbohydrates, calcium, magnesium, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids on the risk of inflammation and insulin resistance in a sample of prepubertal and pubertal children. Methods. A sample of 229 children from Mexico City was analyzed in a cross-sectional design. Anthropometric measurements, 24 h recall questionnaires, and blood samples were obtained. Serum insulin, glucose, calcium, magnesium, 25-OHD3, C-reactive protein, leptin, adiponectin, and erythrocytes fatty acids were measured. Parametric and nonparametric statistics were used for analysis. Results. While mean macronutrients intake was excessive, micronutrients intake was deficient (P<0.01. Inflammation determinants were central obesity and magnesium-deficient diets. Determinants of insulin resistance were carbohydrates intake and circulating magnesium and adiponectin. Conclusions. Magnesium-deficient diets are determinants of inflammation, while high intake of refined carbohydrates is a risk factor for insulin resistance, independently of central adiposity.

Within-person changes in salivary testosterone and physical characteristics of puberty predict boys' daily affect.

Science.gov (United States)

Klipker, Kathrin; Wrzus, Cornelia; Rauers, Antje; Boker, Steven M; Riediger, Michaela

2017-09-01

Recent investigations highlighted the role of within-person pubertal changes for adolescents' behavior. Yet, little is known about effects on adolescents' daily affect, particularly regarding the hormonal changes underlying physical changes during puberty. In a study with 148 boys aged 10 to 20years, we tested whether within-person physical and hormonal changes over eight months predicted everyday affect fluctuations, measured with experience sampling. As expected, greater within-person changes in testosterone (but not in dehydroepiandrosterone) were associated with higher affect fluctuations in daily life. Additionally, greater physical changes predicted higher affect fluctuations for individuals in the beginning of puberty. The findings demonstrate the relevance of physical and hormonal changes in boys' affective (in)stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Functional state of reproductive system in pubertal girls having autoimmune thyroiditis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leonova, T.A.

2003-01-01

Purpose of the present work is to study the condition of reproductive system in pubertal girls with autoimmune thyroiditis (AT), exposed to radiation as a result of the Chernobyl accident, and to study various clinical symptoms of AT in relation to peculiarities of natural course of the disease, age and absorbed thyroid dose. We performed complex clinical investigation of 225 girls from Belarus with AT aged 11-16. We revealed, that girls with AT irradiated at the age of 0-3 had significant changes in gonadotrophic hormones levels in blood serum in lutein phase at the age of 13-14 in comparison with control groups. In spite of the fact that mainly the meaning investigated hormones were in the range of age norm, at the age of 15-16 among girls being irradiated greater percent of increased meaning of factor LG/FSG is revealed. Girls with AT had symptoms of dysfunction in sensitivity of target organs (ovaries and uterus) receptors. At the age of 15-16 among girls with AT, exposed to radiation, direct dependencies are established between the level of absorbed thyroid doze and meaning of LG and prolactin

A multiple model approach to respiratory motion prediction for real-time IGRT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Putra, Devi; Haas, Olivier C L; Burnham, Keith J; Mills, John A

2008-01-01

Respiration induces significant movement of tumours in the vicinity of thoracic and abdominal structures. Real-time image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) aims to adapt radiation delivery to tumour motion during irradiation. One of the main problems for achieving this objective is the presence of time lag between the acquisition of tumour position and the radiation delivery. Such time lag causes significant beam positioning errors and affects the dose coverage. A method to solve this problem is to employ an algorithm that is able to predict future tumour positions from available tumour position measurements. This paper presents a multiple model approach to respiratory-induced tumour motion prediction using the interacting multiple model (IMM) filter. A combination of two models, constant velocity (CV) and constant acceleration (CA), is used to capture respiratory-induced tumour motion. A Kalman filter is designed for each of the local models and the IMM filter is applied to combine the predictions of these Kalman filters for obtaining the predicted tumour position. The IMM filter, likewise the Kalman filter, is a recursive algorithm that is suitable for real-time applications. In addition, this paper proposes a confidence interval (CI) criterion to evaluate the performance of tumour motion prediction algorithms for IGRT. The proposed CI criterion provides a relevant measure for the prediction performance in terms of clinical applications and can be used to specify the margin to accommodate prediction errors. The prediction performance of the IMM filter has been evaluated using 110 traces of 4-minute free-breathing motion collected from 24 lung-cancer patients. The simulation study was carried out for prediction time 0.1-0.6 s with sampling rates 3, 5 and 10 Hz. It was found that the prediction of the IMM filter was consistently better than the prediction of the Kalman filter with the CV or CA model. There was no significant difference of prediction errors for the

Pubertal Development and Thyroid Function in Intact Juvenile Rats Exposed to 3-Nitro-1,2,4-Trazol-5-One (NTO), February-June 2012

Science.gov (United States)

2014-02-01

vivo effects on androgen-dependent tissues in young rats (i.e., prochloraz) similar to the effects of NTO in the present study have feminized male...the potential to interact with the endocrine system in vivo by identifying effects on pubertal development and thyroid function in the intact juvenile...estrogen or thyroid active compound under the test conditions. The observed testicular toxicity and the effects on the androgen-dependent reproductive

Weight Suppression Predicts Time to Remission from Bulimia Nervosa

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, Michael R.; Berner, Laura A.; Swanson, Sonja A.; Clark, Vicki L.; Eddy, Kamryn T.; Franko, Debra L.; Shaw, Jena A.; Ross, Stephanie; Herzog, David B.

2011-01-01

Objective: To investigate whether, at study entry, (a) weight suppression (WS), the difference between highest past adult weight and current weight, prospectively predicts time to first full remission from bulimia nervosa (BN) over a follow-up period of 8 years, and (b) weight change over time mediates the relationship between WS and time to first…

Prediction of half-marathon race time in recreational female and male runners.

Science.gov (United States)

Knechtle, Beat; Barandun, Ursula; Knechtle, Patrizia; Zingg, Matthias A; Rosemann, Thomas; Rüst, Christoph A

2014-01-01

Half-marathon running is of high popularity. Recent studies tried to find predictor variables for half-marathon race time for recreational female and male runners and to present equations to predict race time. The actual equations included running speed during training for both women and men as training variable but midaxillary skinfold for women and body mass index for men as anthropometric variable. An actual study found that percent body fat and running speed during training sessions were the best predictor variables for half-marathon race times in both women and men. The aim of the present study was to improve the existing equations to predict half-marathon race time in a larger sample of male and female half-marathoners by using percent body fat and running speed during training sessions as predictor variables. In a sample of 147 men and 83 women, multiple linear regression analysis including percent body fat and running speed during training units as independent variables and race time as dependent variable were performed and an equation was evolved to predict half-marathon race time. For men, half-marathon race time might be predicted by the equation (r(2) = 0.42, adjusted r(2) = 0.41, SE = 13.3) half-marathon race time (min) = 142.7 + 1.158 × percent body fat (%) - 5.223 × running speed during training (km/h). The predicted race time correlated highly significantly (r = 0.71, p marathon race time might be predicted by the equation (r(2) = 0.68, adjusted r(2) = 0.68, SE = 9.8) race time (min) = 168.7 + 1.077 × percent body fat (%) - 7.556 × running speed during training (km/h). The predicted race time correlated highly significantly (r = 0.89, p < 0.0001) to the achieved race time. The coefficients of determination of the models were slightly higher than for the existing equations. Future studies might include physiological variables to increase the coefficients of determination of the

A prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion for chaotic time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhongda, Tian; Shujiang, Li; Yanhong, Wang; Yi, Sha

2017-01-01

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of chaotic time series, a prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion is proposed. The chaotic time series is decomposed and reconstructed by wavelet transform, and approximate components and detail components are obtained. According to different characteristics of each component, least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is used as predictive model for approximation components. At the same time, an improved free search algorithm is utilized for predictive model parameters optimization. Auto regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) is used as predictive model for detail components. The multiple prediction model predictive values are fusion by Gauss–Markov algorithm, the error variance of predicted results after fusion is less than the single model, the prediction accuracy is improved. The simulation results are compared through two typical chaotic time series include Lorenz time series and Mackey–Glass time series. The simulation results show that the prediction method in this paper has a better prediction.

The role of testosterone and estradiol in brain volume changes across adolescence: a longitudinal structural MRI study.

Science.gov (United States)

Herting, Megan M; Gautam, Prapti; Spielberg, Jeffrey M; Kan, Eric; Dahl, Ronald E; Sowell, Elizabeth R

2014-11-01

It has been postulated that pubertal hormones may drive some neuroanatomical changes during adolescence, and may do so differently in girls and boys. Here, we use growth curve modeling to directly assess how sex hormones [testosterone (T) and estradiol (E₂)] relate to changes in subcortical brain volumes utilizing a longitudinal design. 126 adolescents (63 girls), ages 10 to 14, were imaged and restudied ∼2 years later. We show, for the first time, that best-fit growth models are distinctly different when using hormones as compared to a physical proxy of pubertal maturation (Tanner Stage) or age, to predict brain development. Like Tanner Stage, T and E₂ predicted white matter and right amygdala growth across adolescence in both sexes, independent of age. Tanner Stage also explained decreases in both gray matter and caudate volumes, whereas E₂ explained only gray matter decreases and T explained only caudate volume decreases. No pubertal measures were related to hippocampus development. Although specificity was seen, sex hormones had strikingly similar relationships with white matter, gray matter, right amygdala, and bilateral caudate volumes, with larger changes in brain volume seen at early pubertal maturation (as indexed by lower hormone levels), followed by less robust, or even reversals in growth, by late puberty. These novel longitudinal findings on the relationship between hormones and brain volume change represent crucial first steps toward understanding which aspects of puberty influence neurodevelopment. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pubertal development and fertility in survivors of childhood acute myeloid leukemia treated with chemotherapy only: a NOPHO-AML study.

Science.gov (United States)

Molgaard-Hansen, Lene; Skou, Anne-Sofie; Juul, Anders; Glosli, Heidi; Jahnukainen, Kirsi; Jarfelt, Marianne; Jónmundsson, Guðmundur K; Malmros, Johan; Nysom, Karsten; Hasle, Henrik

2013-12-01

More than 60% of children with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) become long-term survivors. Most are cured using chemotherapy without hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We report on pubertal development and compare self-reported parenthood among AML survivors and their siblings. We included 137 children treated for AML according to the Nordic Society of Pediatric Hematology and Oncology (NOPHO)-AML-84, -88, and -93 trials, who were alive by June 2007. Patients with relapse or treated with HSCT were excluded. AML survivors participated in a physical and biochemical examination (n = 102) and completed a questionnaire (n = 101). One of their siblings completed an identical questionnaire (n = 84). At a median follow-up of 11 years (range 5-25) after diagnosis of AML the survivors (median age 16 years, range 5-36) were either prepubertal or had entered puberty normally. Serum levels of FSH, LH, testosterone, estradiol, sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG), inhibin A and B, and testicular volumes were within normal ranges. Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels were decreased in 5 of 40 postpubertal females. Mean reported age at menarche was 13.1 (range 11-17) years. Among survivors 15 years of age or older 31% of females reported pregnancies and 9% of males reported pregnancies in their partners, rates comparable with the frequency reported by their siblings. Most AML survivors treated with chemotherapy had normal pubertal development and fertility, however, AMH levels were decreased in 13% of postpubertal females. Longer follow-up is necessary to evaluate possible risk of premature ovarian failure. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Trip time prediction in mass transit companies. A machine learning approach

OpenAIRE

João M. Moreira; Alípio Jorge; Jorge Freire de Sousa; Carlos Soares

2005-01-01

In this paper we discuss how trip time prediction can be useful foroperational optimization in mass transit companies and which machine learningtechniques can be used to improve results. Firstly, we analyze which departmentsneed trip time prediction and when. Secondly, we review related work and thirdlywe present the analysis of trip time over a particular path. We proceed by presentingexperimental results conducted on real data with the forecasting techniques wefound most adequate, and concl...

Cumulative and antagonistic effects of a mixture of the antiandrogens vinclozolin and iprodione in the pubertal male rat.

Science.gov (United States)

Blystone, Chad R; Lambright, Christy S; Cardon, Mary C; Furr, Johnathan; Rider, Cynthia V; Hartig, Phillip C; Wilson, Vickie S; Gray, Leon E

2009-09-01

Vinclozolin and iprodione are dicarboximide fungicides that display antiandrogenic effects in the male rat, which suggests that a mixture would lead to cumulative effects on androgen-sensitive end points. Iprodione is a steroid synthesis inhibitor, but androgen receptor antagonist activity, which is displayed by vinclozolin, has not been fully evaluated. Here, we demonstrate that iprodione binds to the human androgen receptor (IC(50) = 86.0 microM), reduces androgen-dependent gene expression, and reduces androgen-sensitive tissue weights in castrated male rats (Hershberger assay). Since vinclozolin and iprodione affect common targets in the pubertal male rat, we tested the hypothesis that a mixture would have cumulative antiandrogenic effects. An iprodione dose, that does not significantly affect androgen-dependent morphological end points, was combined with vinclozolin doses (2 x 5 factorial design). Sprague-Dawley rats were dosed by gavage with vinclozolin at 0, 10, 30, 60, and 100 mg/kg/day with and without 50 mg iprodione/kg/day from postnatal day (PND) 23 to 55-57 (n = 8 per group). The age at puberty (preputial separation [PPS]), organ weights, serum hormones, and ex vivo testis steroid hormone production were measured. Vinclozolin delayed PPS, reduced androgen-sensitive organ weights, and increased serum testosterone. The addition of iprodione enhanced the vinclozolin inhibition of PPS (PND 47.5 vs.49.1; two-way ANOVA: iprodione main effect p = 0.0002). The dose response for several reproductive and nonreproductive organ weights was affected in a cumulative manner. In contrast, iprodione antagonized the vinclozolin-induced increase in serum testosterone. These results demonstrate that these fungicides interact on common targets in a tissue-specific manner when coadministered to the pubertal male rat.

Predictive timing disturbance is a precise marker of schizophrenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentina Ciullo

2018-06-01

Our findings shed new light on the debate over the specificity of timing distortions in SZ, providing evidence that predictive timing is a precise marker of SZ, more sensitive than duration estimation, serving as a valid heuristic for studying the pathophysiology of the disorder.

Real-time prediction of respiratory motion based on local regression methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruan, D; Fessler, J A; Balter, J M

2007-01-01

Recent developments in modulation techniques enable conformal delivery of radiation doses to small, localized target volumes. One of the challenges in using these techniques is real-time tracking and predicting target motion, which is necessary to accommodate system latencies. For image-guided-radiotherapy systems, it is also desirable to minimize sampling rates to reduce imaging dose. This study focuses on predicting respiratory motion, which can significantly affect lung tumours. Predicting respiratory motion in real-time is challenging, due to the complexity of breathing patterns and the many sources of variability. We propose a prediction method based on local regression. There are three major ingredients of this approach: (1) forming an augmented state space to capture system dynamics, (2) local regression in the augmented space to train the predictor from previous observation data using semi-periodicity of respiratory motion, (3) local weighting adjustment to incorporate fading temporal correlations. To evaluate prediction accuracy, we computed the root mean square error between predicted tumor motion and its observed location for ten patients. For comparison, we also investigated commonly used predictive methods, namely linear prediction, neural networks and Kalman filtering to the same data. The proposed method reduced the prediction error for all imaging rates and latency lengths, particularly for long prediction lengths

Robust and Adaptive Online Time Series Prediction with Long Short-Term Memory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haimin Yang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Online time series prediction is the mainstream method in a wide range of fields, ranging from speech analysis and noise cancelation to stock market analysis. However, the data often contains many outliers with the increasing length of time series in real world. These outliers can mislead the learned model if treated as normal points in the process of prediction. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a robust and adaptive online gradient learning method, RoAdam (Robust Adam, for long short-term memory (LSTM to predict time series with outliers. This method tunes the learning rate of the stochastic gradient algorithm adaptively in the process of prediction, which reduces the adverse effect of outliers. It tracks the relative prediction error of the loss function with a weighted average through modifying Adam, a popular stochastic gradient method algorithm for training deep neural networks. In our algorithm, the large value of the relative prediction error corresponds to a small learning rate, and vice versa. The experiments on both synthetic data and real time series show that our method achieves better performance compared to the existing methods based on LSTM.

Robust and Adaptive Online Time Series Prediction with Long Short-Term Memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Haimin; Pan, Zhisong; Tao, Qing

2017-01-01

Online time series prediction is the mainstream method in a wide range of fields, ranging from speech analysis and noise cancelation to stock market analysis. However, the data often contains many outliers with the increasing length of time series in real world. These outliers can mislead the learned model if treated as normal points in the process of prediction. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a robust and adaptive online gradient learning method, RoAdam (Robust Adam), for long short-term memory (LSTM) to predict time series with outliers. This method tunes the learning rate of the stochastic gradient algorithm adaptively in the process of prediction, which reduces the adverse effect of outliers. It tracks the relative prediction error of the loss function with a weighted average through modifying Adam, a popular stochastic gradient method algorithm for training deep neural networks. In our algorithm, the large value of the relative prediction error corresponds to a small learning rate, and vice versa. The experiments on both synthetic data and real time series show that our method achieves better performance compared to the existing methods based on LSTM.

Techniques for building timing-predictable embedded systems

CERN Document Server

Guan, Nan

2016-01-01

This book describes state-of-the-art techniques for designing real-time computer systems. The author shows how to estimate precisely the effect of cache architecture on the execution time of a program, how to dispatch workload on multicore processors to optimize resources, while meeting deadline constraints, and how to use closed-form mathematical approaches to characterize highly variable workloads and their interaction in a networked environment. Readers will learn how to deal with unpredictable timing behaviors of computer systems on different levels of system granularity and abstraction. Introduces promising techniques for dealing with challenges associated with deploying real-time systems on multicore platforms; Provides a complete picture of building timing-predictable computer systems, at the program level, component level and system level; Leverages different levels of abstraction to deal with the complexity of the analysis.

A Personalized Predictive Framework for Multivariate Clinical Time Series via Adaptive Model Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2017-11-01

Building of an accurate predictive model of clinical time series for a patient is critical for understanding of the patient condition, its dynamics, and optimal patient management. Unfortunately, this process is not straightforward. First, patient-specific variations are typically large and population-based models derived or learned from many different patients are often unable to support accurate predictions for each individual patient. Moreover, time series observed for one patient at any point in time may be too short and insufficient to learn a high-quality patient-specific model just from the patient's own data. To address these problems we propose, develop and experiment with a new adaptive forecasting framework for building multivariate clinical time series models for a patient and for supporting patient-specific predictions. The framework relies on the adaptive model switching approach that at any point in time selects the most promising time series model out of the pool of many possible models, and consequently, combines advantages of the population, patient-specific and short-term individualized predictive models. We demonstrate that the adaptive model switching framework is very promising approach to support personalized time series prediction, and that it is able to outperform predictions based on pure population and patient-specific models, as well as, other patient-specific model adaptation strategies.

Earthquake prediction in Japan and natural time analysis of seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Uyeda, S.; Varotsos, P.

2011-12-01

M9 super-giant earthquake with huge tsunami devastated East Japan on 11 March, causing more than 20,000 casualties and serious damage of Fukushima nuclear plant. This earthquake was predicted neither short-term nor long-term. Seismologists were shocked because it was not even considered possible to happen at the East Japan subduction zone. However, it was not the only un-predicted earthquake. In fact, throughout several decades of the National Earthquake Prediction Project, not even a single earthquake was predicted. In reality, practically no effective research has been conducted for the most important short-term prediction. This happened because the Japanese National Project was devoted for construction of elaborate seismic networks, which was not the best way for short-term prediction. After the Kobe disaster, in order to parry the mounting criticism on their no success history, they defiantly changed their policy to "stop aiming at short-term prediction because it is impossible and concentrate resources on fundamental research", that meant to obtain "more funding for no prediction research". The public were and are not informed about this change. Obviously earthquake prediction would be possible only when reliable precursory phenomena are caught and we have insisted this would be done most likely through non-seismic means such as geochemical/hydrological and electromagnetic monitoring. Admittedly, the lack of convincing precursors for the M9 super-giant earthquake has adverse effect for us, although its epicenter was far out off shore of the range of operating monitoring systems. In this presentation, we show a new possibility of finding remarkable precursory signals, ironically, from ordinary seismological catalogs. In the frame of the new time domain termed natural time, an order parameter of seismicity, κ1, has been introduced. This is the variance of natural time kai weighted by normalised energy release at χ. In the case that Seismic Electric Signals

Healthy work revisited: do changes in time strain predict well-being?

Science.gov (United States)

Moen, Phyllis; Kelly, Erin L; Lam, Jack

2013-04-01

Building on Karasek and Theorell (R. Karasek & T. Theorell, 1990, Healthy work: Stress, productivity, and the reconstruction of working life, New York, NY: Basic Books), we theorized and tested the relationship between time strain (work-time demands and control) and seven self-reported health outcomes. We drew on survey data from 550 employees fielded before and 6 months after the implementation of an organizational intervention, the results only work environment (ROWE) in a white-collar organization. Cross-sectional (wave 1) models showed psychological time demands and time control measures were related to health outcomes in expected directions. The ROWE intervention did not predict changes in psychological time demands by wave 2, but did predict increased time control (a sense of time adequacy and schedule control). Statistical models revealed increases in psychological time demands and time adequacy predicted changes in positive (energy, mastery, psychological well-being, self-assessed health) and negative (emotional exhaustion, somatic symptoms, psychological distress) outcomes in expected directions, net of job and home demands and covariates. This study demonstrates the value of including time strain in investigations of the health effects of job conditions. Results encourage longitudinal models of change in psychological time demands as well as time control, along with the development and testing of interventions aimed at reducing time strain in different populations of workers.

Correlates of adolescent sleep time and variability in sleep time: the role of individual and health related characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Melisa; Kirchner, H Lester; Drotar, Dennis; Johnson, Nathan; Rosen, Carol; Redline, Susan

2011-03-01

Adolescents are predisposed to short sleep duration and irregular sleep patterns due to certain host characteristics (e.g., age, pubertal status, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic class, and neighborhood distress) and health-related variables (e.g., ADHD, asthma, birth weight, and BMI). The aim of the current study was to investigate the relationship between such variables and actigraphic measures of sleep duration and variability. Cross-sectional study of 247 adolescents (48.5% female, 54.3% ethnic minority, mean age of 13.7years) involved in a larger community-based cohort study. Significant univariate predictors of sleep duration included gender, minority ethnicity, neighborhood distress, parent income, and BMI. In multivariate models, gender, minority status, and BMI were significantly associated with sleep duration (all pminority adolescents, and those of a lower BMI obtaining more sleep. Univariate models demonstrated that age, minority ethnicity, neighborhood distress, parent education, parent income, pubertal status, and BMI were significantly related to variability in total sleep time. In the multivariate model, age, minority status, and BMI were significantly related to variability in total sleep time (all pminority adolescents, and those of a lower BMI obtaining more regular sleep. These data show differences in sleep patterns in population sub-groups of adolescents which may be important in understanding pediatric health risk profiles. Sub-groups that may particularly benefit from interventions aimed at improving sleep patterns include boys, overweight, and minority adolescents. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cure modeling in real-time prediction: How much does it help?

Science.gov (United States)

Ying, Gui-Shuang; Zhang, Qiang; Lan, Yu; Li, Yimei; Heitjan, Daniel F

2017-08-01

Various parametric and nonparametric modeling approaches exist for real-time prediction in time-to-event clinical trials. Recently, Chen (2016 BMC Biomedical Research Methodology 16) proposed a prediction method based on parametric cure-mixture modeling, intending to cover those situations where it appears that a non-negligible fraction of subjects is cured. In this article we apply a Weibull cure-mixture model to create predictions, demonstrating the approach in RTOG 0129, a randomized trial in head-and-neck cancer. We compare the ultimate realized data in RTOG 0129 to interim predictions from a Weibull cure-mixture model, a standard Weibull model without a cure component, and a nonparametric model based on the Bayesian bootstrap. The standard Weibull model predicted that events would occur earlier than the Weibull cure-mixture model, but the difference was unremarkable until late in the trial when evidence for a cure became clear. Nonparametric predictions often gave undefined predictions or infinite prediction intervals, particularly at early stages of the trial. Simulations suggest that cure modeling can yield better-calibrated prediction intervals when there is a cured component, or the appearance of a cured component, but at a substantial cost in the average width of the intervals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sex, age, pubertal development and use of oral contraceptives in relation to serum concentrations of DHEA, DHEAS, 17α-hydroxyprogesterone, Δ4-androstenedione, testosterone and their ratios in children, adolescents and young adults

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søeborg, Tue; Frederiksen, Hanne; Mouritsen, Annette

2014-01-01

The influence of sex, age, pubertal development and oral contraceptives on dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), DHEA sulfate (DHEAS), 17α-hydroxyprogesterone (17-OHP), Δ4-androstenedione (Adione), testosterone (T), calculated free testosterone (fT), free androgen index (FAI) and selected ratios in 1798...... serum samples from healthy children, adolescents and young adults was evaluated. Samples were analyzed by Turboflow-LC-MS/MS. Sex hormone-binding globulin was analyzed by immunoassay. All steroid metabolite concentrations were positively associated with age and pubertal development in both sexes....... Use of oral contraceptives significantly lowered serum concentrations of all steroid metabolites, fT, FAI, the 17-OHP/Adione, the Adione/T and the DHEA/Adione ratios, but not the DHEA/DHEAS ratio. We provide reference ranges for DHEA, DHEAS, 17-OHP, Adione, T, fT, FAI and selected ratios in relation...

Anxiety Symptoms in African American Youth: The Role of Puberty and Biological Sex

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, Rona

2015-01-01

This study examined the effects of pubertal status, pubertal timing (actual and perceived), and youth biological sex on symptom dimensions of anxiety (i.e., social, separation, harm avoidance, physical) in African Americans (n = 252; ages 8-12). For girls, results indicated that pubertal status and timing (actual) exerted similar effects for some…

Ecological prediction with nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional data models

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Wen-Hsi; Wikle, Christopher K.; Holan, Scott H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

2013-01-01

Time-frequency analysis has become a fundamental component of many scientific inquiries. Due to improvements in technology, the amount of high-frequency signals that are collected for ecological and other scientific processes is increasing at a dramatic rate. In order to facilitate the use of these data in ecological prediction, we introduce a class of nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional models that can identify important features of each signal as well as the interaction of signals corresponding to the response variable of interest. Our methodology is of independent interest and utilizes stochastic search variable selection to improve model selection and performs model averaging to enhance prediction. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through simulation and by application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River.

The Prediction of Teacher Turnover Employing Time Series Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Crist H.

The purpose of this study was to combine knowledge of teacher demographic data with time-series forecasting methods to predict teacher turnover. Moving averages and exponential smoothing were used to forecast discrete time series. The study used data collected from the 22 largest school districts in Iowa, designated as FACT schools. Predictions…

Wind Speed Prediction with Wavelet Time Series Based on Lorenz Disturbance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ZHANG, Y.

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Due to the sustainable and pollution-free characteristics, wind energy has been one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources. However, the intermittent and random fluctuation of wind speed presents many challenges for reliable wind power integration and normal operation of wind farm. Accurate wind speed prediction is the key to ensure the safe operation of power system and to develop wind energy resources. Therefore, this paper has presented a wavelet time series wind speed prediction model based on Lorenz disturbance. Therefore, in this paper, combined with the atmospheric dynamical system, a wavelet-time series improved wind speed prediction model based on Lorenz disturbance is proposed and the wind turbines of different climate types in Spain and China are used to simulate the disturbances of Lorenz equations with different initial values. The prediction results show that the improved model can effectively correct the preliminary prediction of wind speed, improving the prediction. In a word, the research work in this paper will be helpful to arrange the electric power dispatching plan and ensure the normal operation of the wind farm.

A simple, fast, and accurate thermodynamic-based approach for transfer and prediction of gas chromatography retention times between columns and instruments Part III: Retention time prediction on target column.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Siyuan; Stevenson, Keisean A J M; Harynuk, James J

2018-03-27

This is the third part of a three-part series of papers. In Part I, we presented a method for determining the actual effective geometry of a reference column as well as the thermodynamic-based parameters of a set of probe compounds in an in-house mixture. Part II introduced an approach for estimating the actual effective geometry of a target column by collecting retention data of the same mixture of probe compounds on the target column and using their thermodynamic parameters, acquired on the reference column, as a bridge between both systems. Part III, presented here, demonstrates the retention time transfer and prediction from the reference column to the target column using experimental data for a separate mixture of compounds. To predict the retention time of a new compound, we first estimate its thermodynamic-based parameters on the reference column (using geometric parameters determined previously). The compound's retention time on a second column (of previously determined geometry) is then predicted. The models and the associated optimization algorithms were tested using simulated and experimental data. The accuracy of predicted retention times shows that the proposed approach is simple, fast, and accurate for retention time transfer and prediction between gas chromatography columns. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Evaluation of a real-time travel time prediction system in a freeway construction work zone : executive summary.

Science.gov (United States)

2001-03-01

A real-time travel time prediction system (TIPS) was evaluated in a construction work : zone. TIPS includes changeable message signs (CMSs) displaying the travel time and : distance to the end of the work zone to motorists. The travel times displayed...

A real-time prediction model for post-irradiation malignant cervical lymph nodes.

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, W-C; Cheng, P-W; Shueng, P-W; Hsieh, C-H; Chang, Y-L; Liao, L-J

2018-04-01

To establish a real-time predictive scoring model based on sonographic characteristics for identifying malignant cervical lymph nodes (LNs) in cancer patients after neck irradiation. One-hundred forty-four irradiation-treated patients underwent ultrasonography and ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspirations (USgFNAs), and the resultant data were used to construct a real-time and computerised predictive scoring model. This scoring system was further compared with our previously proposed prediction model. A predictive scoring model, 1.35 × (L axis) + 2.03 × (S axis) + 2.27 × (margin) + 1.48 × (echogenic hilum) + 3.7, was generated by stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis. Neck LNs were considered to be malignant when the score was ≥ 7, corresponding to a sensitivity of 85.5%, specificity of 79.4%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 82.3%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 83.1%, and overall accuracy of 82.6%. When this new model and the original model were compared, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (c-statistic) were 0.89 and 0.81, respectively (P real-time sonographic predictive scoring model was constructed to provide prompt and reliable guidance for USgFNA biopsies to manage cervical LNs after neck irradiation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Uncertainty in Bus Arrival Time Predictions: Treating Heteroscedasticity With a Metamodel Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

O'Sullivan, Aidan; Pereira, Francisco Camara; Zhao, Jinhua

2016-01-01

Arrival time predictions for the next available bus or train are a key component of modern traveler information systems (TISs). A great deal of research has been conducted within the intelligent transportation system community in developing an assortment of different algorithms that seek...... sources. In this paper, we tackle the issue of uncertainty in bus arrival time predictions using an alternative approach. Rather than endeavor to develop a superior method for prediction, we take existing predictions from a TIS and treat the algorithm generating them as a black box. The presence...... of heteroscedasticity in the predictions is demonstrated and then a metamodel approach is deployed, which augments existing predictive systems using quantile regression to place bounds on the associated error. As a case study, this approach is applied to data from a real-world TIS in Boston. This method allows bounds...

Rope skipping increases bone mineral density at calcanei of pubertal girls in Hong Kong: A quasi-experimental investigation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amy S Ha

Full Text Available Bone mineral accrual during puberty is important, especially in girls, because it is related to reduced risks of osteoporosis in adulthood. Previous research has shown that jumping or plyometric exercises may be effective in increasing bone mineral density in adolescents. Rope skipping is a form of activity that involves jumping, thus regular skipping may also increase bone mineral density in pubertal girls. To this end, we conducted a quasi-experimental to examine the effects of rope skipping on girls' bone mineral density and cardiovascular fitness. 176 Hong Kong girls (age = 12.23 ± 1.80 years at baseline were recruited to take part in the study. Bone density at their forearms and calcanei were measured twice over two academic years (mean time between visits was 10.3 months. Using multilevel modeling analyses and adjusting for participants' height and physical activity, we found that girls who participated in weekly rope skipping activities, compared to those who did not, had higher levels of bone density at the calcanei (B = 0.023, p < .01. However, no differences were found for bone density at forearms or participants' cardiovascular fitness. The rates of change of these variables across time were also not significantly different. Results suggest that regular rope skipping may increase girls' bone density at the lower extremities, irrespective of the amount of self-report physical activity. However, further research is required to examine the potential dose-response relation between skipping behaviors and the measured outcomes.

New prediction of chaotic time series based on local Lyapunov exponent

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Yong

2013-01-01

A new method of predicting chaotic time series is presented based on a local Lyapunov exponent, by quantitatively measuring the exponential rate of separation or attraction of two infinitely close trajectories in state space. After reconstructing state space from one-dimensional chaotic time series, neighboring multiple-state vectors of the predicting point are selected to deduce the prediction formula by using the definition of the local Lyapunov exponent. Numerical simulations are carried out to test its effectiveness and verify its higher precision over two older methods. The effects of the number of referential state vectors and added noise on forecasting accuracy are also studied numerically. (general)

SU-E-T-629: Prediction of the ViewRay Radiotherapy Treatment Time for Clinical Logistics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, S; Wooten, H; Wu, Y; Yang, D [Washington University in St Louis, St Louis, MO (United States)

2015-06-15

Purpose: An algorithm is developed in our clinic, given a new treatment plan, to predict treatment delivery time for radiation therapy (RT) treatments of patients on ViewRay magnetic resonance-image guided radiation therapy (MR-IGRT) delivery system. This algorithm is necessary for managing patient treatment appointments, and is useful as an indicator to assess the treatment plan complexity. Methods: A patient’s total treatment delivery time, not including time required for localization, may be described as the sum of four components: (1) the treatment initialization time; (2) the total beam-on time; (3) the gantry rotation time; and (4) the multileaf collimator (MLC) motion time. Each of the four components is predicted separately. The total beam-on time can be calculated using both the planned beam-on time and the decay-corrected delivery dose rate. To predict the remaining components, we quantitatively analyze the patient treatment delivery record files. The initialization time is demonstrated to be random since it depends on the final gantry angle and MLC leaf positions of the previous treatment. Based on modeling the relationships between the gantry rotation angles and the corresponding rotation time, and between the furthest MLC leaf moving distance and the corresponding MLC motion time, the total delivery time is predicted using linear regression. Results: The proposed algorithm has demonstrated the feasibility of predicting the ViewRay treatment delivery time for any treatment plan of any patient. The average prediction error is 0.89 minutes or 5.34%, and the maximal prediction error is 2.09 minutes or 13.87%. Conclusion: We have developed a treatment delivery time prediction algorithm based on the analysis of previous patients’ treatment delivery records. The accuracy of our prediction is sufficient for guiding and arranging patient treatment appointments on a daily basis. The predicted delivery time could also be used as an indicator to assess the

SU-E-T-629: Prediction of the ViewRay Radiotherapy Treatment Time for Clinical Logistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, S; Wooten, H; Wu, Y; Yang, D

2015-01-01

Purpose: An algorithm is developed in our clinic, given a new treatment plan, to predict treatment delivery time for radiation therapy (RT) treatments of patients on ViewRay magnetic resonance-image guided radiation therapy (MR-IGRT) delivery system. This algorithm is necessary for managing patient treatment appointments, and is useful as an indicator to assess the treatment plan complexity. Methods: A patient’s total treatment delivery time, not including time required for localization, may be described as the sum of four components: (1) the treatment initialization time; (2) the total beam-on time; (3) the gantry rotation time; and (4) the multileaf collimator (MLC) motion time. Each of the four components is predicted separately. The total beam-on time can be calculated using both the planned beam-on time and the decay-corrected delivery dose rate. To predict the remaining components, we quantitatively analyze the patient treatment delivery record files. The initialization time is demonstrated to be random since it depends on the final gantry angle and MLC leaf positions of the previous treatment. Based on modeling the relationships between the gantry rotation angles and the corresponding rotation time, and between the furthest MLC leaf moving distance and the corresponding MLC motion time, the total delivery time is predicted using linear regression. Results: The proposed algorithm has demonstrated the feasibility of predicting the ViewRay treatment delivery time for any treatment plan of any patient. The average prediction error is 0.89 minutes or 5.34%, and the maximal prediction error is 2.09 minutes or 13.87%. Conclusion: We have developed a treatment delivery time prediction algorithm based on the analysis of previous patients’ treatment delivery records. The accuracy of our prediction is sufficient for guiding and arranging patient treatment appointments on a daily basis. The predicted delivery time could also be used as an indicator to assess the

Associations of Birth Order with Early Adolescent Growth, Pubertal Onset, Blood Pressure and Size: Evidence from Hong Kong?s ?Children of 1997? Birth Cohort

OpenAIRE

Kwok, Man Ki; Leung, Gabriel M.; Schooling, C. Mary

2016-01-01

Background Birth order has been proposed as a cardiovascular risk factor, because the lower birth weight and greater infant weight gain typical of firstborns could programme metabolism detrimentally. Methods We examined the associations of birth order (firstborn or laterborn) with birth weight-for-gestational age, length/height and body mass index (BMI) z-scores during infancy, childhood, and puberty using generalized estimating equations, with age at pubertal onset using interval-censored re...

Predicting physical time series using dynamic ridge polynomial neural networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dhiya Al-Jumeily

Full Text Available Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques.

Remaining dischargeable time prediction for lithium-ion batteries using unscented Kalman filter

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Guangzhong; Wei, Jingwen; Chen, Zonghai; Sun, Han; Yu, Xiaowei

2017-10-01

To overcome the range anxiety, one of the important strategies is to accurately predict the range or dischargeable time of the battery system. To accurately predict the remaining dischargeable time (RDT) of a battery, a RDT prediction framework based on accurate battery modeling and state estimation is presented in this paper. Firstly, a simplified linearized equivalent-circuit-model is developed to simulate the dynamic characteristics of a battery. Then, an online recursive least-square-algorithm method and unscented-Kalman-filter are employed to estimate the system matrices and SOC at every prediction point. Besides, a discrete wavelet transform technique is employed to capture the statistical information of past dynamics of input currents, which are utilized to predict the future battery currents. Finally, the RDT can be predicted based on the battery model, SOC estimation results and predicted future battery currents. The performance of the proposed methodology has been verified by a lithium-ion battery cell. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method can provide an accurate SOC and parameter estimation and the predicted RDT can solve the range anxiety issues.

Predicting Charging Time of Battery Electric Vehicles Based on Regression and Time-Series Methods: A Case Study of Beijing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun Bi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Battery electric vehicles (BEVs reduce energy consumption and air pollution as compared with conventional vehicles. However, the limited driving range and potential long charging time of BEVs create new problems. Accurate charging time prediction of BEVs helps drivers determine travel plans and alleviate their range anxiety during trips. This study proposed a combined model for charging time prediction based on regression and time-series methods according to the actual data from BEVs operating in Beijing, China. After data analysis, a regression model was established by considering the charged amount for charging time prediction. Furthermore, a time-series method was adopted to calibrate the regression model, which significantly improved the fitting accuracy of the model. The parameters of the model were determined by using the actual data. Verification results confirmed the accuracy of the model and showed that the model errors were small. The proposed model can accurately depict the charging time characteristics of BEVs in Beijing.

DeepRT: deep learning for peptide retention time prediction in proteomics

OpenAIRE

Ma, Chunwei; Zhu, Zhiyong; Ye, Jun; Yang, Jiarui; Pei, Jianguo; Xu, Shaohang; Zhou, Ruo; Yu, Chang; Mo, Fan; Wen, Bo; Liu, Siqi

2017-01-01

Accurate predictions of peptide retention times (RT) in liquid chromatography have many applications in mass spectrometry-based proteomics. Herein, we present DeepRT, a deep learning based software for peptide retention time prediction. DeepRT automatically learns features directly from the peptide sequences using the deep convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model, which eliminates the need to use hand-crafted features or rules. After the feature learning, pr...

A maintenance time prediction method considering ergonomics through virtual reality simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Dong; Zhou, Xin-Xin; Guo, Zi-Yue; Lv, Chuan

2016-01-01

Maintenance time is a critical quantitative index in maintainability prediction. An efficient maintenance time measurement methodology plays an important role in early stage of the maintainability design. While traditional way to measure the maintenance time ignores the differences between line production and maintenance action. This paper proposes a corrective MOD method considering several important ergonomics factors to predict the maintenance time. With the help of the DELMIA analysis tools, the influence coefficient of several factors are discussed to correct the MOD value and the designers can measure maintenance time by calculating the sum of the corrective MOD time of each maintenance therbligs. Finally a case study is introduced, by maintaining the virtual prototype of APU motor starter in DELMIA, designer obtains the actual maintenance time by the proposed method, and the result verifies the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method.

Predicting The Exit Time Of Employees In An Organization Using Statistical Model

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Ahmed Al Kuwaiti

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Employees are considered as an asset to any organization and each organization provide a better and flexible working environment to retain its best and resourceful workforce. As such continuous efforts are being taken to avoid or extend the exitwithdrawal of employees from the organization. Human resource managers are facing a challenge to predict the exit time of employees and there is no precise model existing at present in the literature. This study has been conducted to predict the probability of exit of an employee in an organization using appropriate statistical model. Accordingly authors designed a model using Additive Weibull distribution to predict the expected exit time of employee in an organization. In addition a Shock model approach is also executed to check how well the Additive Weibull distribution suits in an organization. The analytical results showed that when the inter-arrival time increases the expected time for the employees to exit also increases. This study concluded that Additive Weibull distribution can be considered as an alternative in the place of Shock model approach to predict the exit time of employee in an organization.

Time series prediction with simple recurrent neural networks ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A hybrid of the two called Elman-Jordan (or Multi-recurrent) neural network is also being used. In this study, we evaluated the performance of these neural networks on three established bench mark time series prediction problems. Results from the experiments showed that Jordan neural network performed significantly ...

Dynamic Travel Time Prediction Models for Buses Using Only GPS Data

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Wei Fan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Providing real-time and accurate travel time information of transit vehicles can be very helpful as it assists passengers in planning their trips to minimize waiting times. The purpose of this research is to develop and compare dynamic travel time prediction models which can provide accurate prediction of bus travel time in order to give real-time information at a given downstream bus stop using only global positioning system (GPS data. Historical Average (HA, Kalman Filtering (KF and Artificial Neural Network (ANN models are considered and developed in this paper. A case has been studied by making use of the three models. Promising results are obtained from the case study, indicating that the models can be used to implement an Advanced Public Transport System. The implementation of this system could assist transit operators in improving the reliability of bus services, thus attracting more travelers to transit vehicles and helping relieve congestion. The performances of the three models were assessed and compared with each other under two criteria: overall prediction accuracy and robustness. It was shown that the ANN outperformed the other two models in both aspects. In conclusion, it is shown that bus travel time information can be reasonably provided using only arrival and departure time information at stops even in the absence of traffic-stream data.

Improving the Prediction of Total Surgical Procedure Time Using Linear Regression Modeling

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Eric R. Edelman

2017-06-01

Full Text Available For efficient utilization of operating rooms (ORs, accurate schedules of assigned block time and sequences of patient cases need to be made. The quality of these planning tools is dependent on the accurate prediction of total procedure time (TPT per case. In this paper, we attempt to improve the accuracy of TPT predictions by using linear regression models based on estimated surgeon-controlled time (eSCT and other variables relevant to TPT. We extracted data from a Dutch benchmarking database of all surgeries performed in six academic hospitals in The Netherlands from 2012 till 2016. The final dataset consisted of 79,983 records, describing 199,772 h of total OR time. Potential predictors of TPT that were included in the subsequent analysis were eSCT, patient age, type of operation, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA physical status classification, and type of anesthesia used. First, we computed the predicted TPT based on a previously described fixed ratio model for each record, multiplying eSCT by 1.33. This number is based on the research performed by van Veen-Berkx et al., which showed that 33% of SCT is generally a good approximation of anesthesia-controlled time (ACT. We then systematically tested all possible linear regression models to predict TPT using eSCT in combination with the other available independent variables. In addition, all regression models were again tested without eSCT as a predictor to predict ACT separately (which leads to TPT by adding SCT. TPT was most accurately predicted using a linear regression model based on the independent variables eSCT, type of operation, ASA classification, and type of anesthesia. This model performed significantly better than the fixed ratio model and the method of predicting ACT separately. Making use of these more accurate predictions in planning and sequencing algorithms may enable an increase in utilization of ORs, leading to significant financial and productivity related

Improving the Prediction of Total Surgical Procedure Time Using Linear Regression Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Edelman, Eric R; van Kuijk, Sander M J; Hamaekers, Ankie E W; de Korte, Marcel J M; van Merode, Godefridus G; Buhre, Wolfgang F F A

2017-01-01

For efficient utilization of operating rooms (ORs), accurate schedules of assigned block time and sequences of patient cases need to be made. The quality of these planning tools is dependent on the accurate prediction of total procedure time (TPT) per case. In this paper, we attempt to improve the accuracy of TPT predictions by using linear regression models based on estimated surgeon-controlled time (eSCT) and other variables relevant to TPT. We extracted data from a Dutch benchmarking database of all surgeries performed in six academic hospitals in The Netherlands from 2012 till 2016. The final dataset consisted of 79,983 records, describing 199,772 h of total OR time. Potential predictors of TPT that were included in the subsequent analysis were eSCT, patient age, type of operation, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, and type of anesthesia used. First, we computed the predicted TPT based on a previously described fixed ratio model for each record, multiplying eSCT by 1.33. This number is based on the research performed by van Veen-Berkx et al., which showed that 33% of SCT is generally a good approximation of anesthesia-controlled time (ACT). We then systematically tested all possible linear regression models to predict TPT using eSCT in combination with the other available independent variables. In addition, all regression models were again tested without eSCT as a predictor to predict ACT separately (which leads to TPT by adding SCT). TPT was most accurately predicted using a linear regression model based on the independent variables eSCT, type of operation, ASA classification, and type of anesthesia. This model performed significantly better than the fixed ratio model and the method of predicting ACT separately. Making use of these more accurate predictions in planning and sequencing algorithms may enable an increase in utilization of ORs, leading to significant financial and productivity related benefits.

Life-history theory, chronic childhood illness and the timing of first reproduction in a British birth cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Waynforth, David

2012-08-07

Life-history theoretical models show that a typical evolutionarily optimal response of a juvenile organism to high mortality risk is to reach reproductive maturity earlier. Experimental studies in a range of species suggest the existence of adaptive flexibility in reproductive scheduling to maximize fitness just as life-history theory predicts. In humans, supportive evidence has come from studies comparing neighbourhoods with different mortality rates, historical and cross-cultural data. Here, the prediction is tested in a novel way in a large (n = 9099), longitudinal sample using data comparing age at first reproduction in individuals with and without life-expectancy-reducing chronic disease diagnosed during childhood. Diseases selected for inclusion as chronic illnesses were those unlikely to be significantly affected by shifting allocation of effort away from reproduction towards survival; those which have comparatively large effects on mortality and life expectancy; and those which are not profoundly disabling. The results confirmed the prediction that chronic disease would associate with early age at first reproduction: individuals growing up with a serious chronic disease were 1.6 times more likely to have had a first child by age 30. Analysis of control variables also confirmed past research findings on links between being raised father-absent and early pubertal development and reproduction.

The Case For Prediction-based Best-effort Real-time Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

1999-01-01

Real - time Systems Peter A. Dinda Loukas Kallivokas January...DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A Approved for Public Release Distribution Unlimited DTIG QUALBR DISSECTED X The Case For Prediction-based Best-effort Real - time Systems Peter...Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 A version of this paper appeared in the Seventh Workshop on Parallel and Distributed Real - Time Systems

Urban Link Travel Time Prediction Based on a Gradient Boosting Method Considering Spatiotemporal Correlations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faming Zhang

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The prediction of travel times is challenging because of the sparseness of real-time traffic data and the intrinsic uncertainty of travel on congested urban road networks. We propose a new gradient–boosted regression tree method to accurately predict travel times. This model accounts for spatiotemporal correlations extracted from historical and real-time traffic data for adjacent and target links. This method can deliver high prediction accuracy by combining simple regression trees with poor performance. It corrects the error found in existing models for improved prediction accuracy. Our spatiotemporal gradient–boosted regression tree model was verified in experiments. The training data were obtained from big data reflecting historic traffic conditions collected by probe vehicles in Wuhan from January to May 2014. Real-time data were extracted from 11 weeks of GPS records collected in Wuhan from 5 May 2014 to 20 July 2014. Based on these data, we predicted link travel time for the period from 21 July 2014 to 25 July 2014. Experiments showed that our proposed spatiotemporal gradient–boosted regression tree model obtained better results than gradient boosting, random forest, or autoregressive integrated moving average approaches. Furthermore, these results indicate the advantages of our model for urban link travel time prediction.

Molecular Dynamics Simulations and Kinetic Measurements to Estimate and Predict Protein-Ligand Residence Times.

Science.gov (United States)

Mollica, Luca; Theret, Isabelle; Antoine, Mathias; Perron-Sierra, Françoise; Charton, Yves; Fourquez, Jean-Marie; Wierzbicki, Michel; Boutin, Jean A; Ferry, Gilles; Decherchi, Sergio; Bottegoni, Giovanni; Ducrot, Pierre; Cavalli, Andrea

2016-08-11

Ligand-target residence time is emerging as a key drug discovery parameter because it can reliably predict drug efficacy in vivo. Experimental approaches to binding and unbinding kinetics are nowadays available, but we still lack reliable computational tools for predicting kinetics and residence time. Most attempts have been based on brute-force molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, which are CPU-demanding and not yet particularly accurate. We recently reported a new scaled-MD-based protocol, which showed potential for residence time prediction in drug discovery. Here, we further challenged our procedure's predictive ability by applying our methodology to a series of glucokinase activators that could be useful for treating type 2 diabetes mellitus. We combined scaled MD with experimental kinetics measurements and X-ray crystallography, promptly checking the protocol's reliability by directly comparing computational predictions and experimental measures. The good agreement highlights the potential of our scaled-MD-based approach as an innovative method for computationally estimating and predicting drug residence times.

Optimal model-free prediction from multivariate time series

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Jakob; Donner, Reik V.; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-05-01

Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques, such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and overfitting for more than a few predictors which has limited their application mostly to the univariate case. Therefore, selection strategies are needed that harness the available information as efficiently as possible. Since often the right combination of predictors matters, ideally all subsets of possible predictors should be tested for their predictive power, but the exponentially growing number of combinations makes such an approach computationally prohibitive. Here a prediction scheme that overcomes this strong limitation is introduced utilizing a causal preselection step which drastically reduces the number of possible predictors to the most predictive set of causal drivers making a globally optimal search scheme tractable. The information-theoretic optimality is derived and practical selection criteria are discussed. As demonstrated for multivariate nonlinear stochastic delay processes, the optimal scheme can even be less computationally expensive than commonly used suboptimal schemes like forward selection. The method suggests a general framework to apply the optimal model-free approach to select variables and subsequently fit a model to further improve a prediction or learn statistical dependencies. The performance of this framework is illustrated on a climatological index of El Niño Southern Oscillation.

A framework for predicting three-dimensional prostate deformation in real time

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jahya, Alex; Herink, Mark; Misra, Sarthak

2013-01-01

Background Surgical simulation systems can be used to estimate soft tissue deformation during pre- and intra-operative planning. Such systems require a model that can accurately predict the deformation in real time. In this study, we present a back-propagation neural network for predicting

Linear filters as a method of real-time prediction of geomagnetic activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McPherron, R.L.; Baker, D.N.; Bargatze, L.F.

1985-01-01

Important factors controlling geomagnetic activity include the solar wind velocity, the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and the field orientation. Because these quantities change so much in transit through the solar wind, real-time monitoring immediately upstream of the earth provides the best input for any technique of real-time prediction. One such technique is linear prediction filtering which utilizes past histories of the input and output of a linear system to create a time-invariant filter characterizing the system. Problems of nonlinearity or temporal changes of the system can be handled by appropriate choice of input parameters and piecewise approximation in various ranges of the input. We have created prediction filters for all the standard magnetic indices and tested their efficiency. The filters show that the initial response of the magnetosphere to a southward turning of the IMF peaks in 20 minutes and then again in 55 minutes. After a northward turning, auroral zone indices and the midlatitude ASYM index return to background within 2 hours, while Dst decays exponentially with a time constant of about 8 hours. This paper describes a simple, real-time system utilizing these filters which could predict a substantial fraction of the variation in magnetic activity indices 20 to 50 minutes in advance

Long-term prediction of chaotic time series with multi-step prediction horizons by a neural network with Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirzaee, Hossein

2009-01-01

The Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm is applied for training a multilayer perception with three hidden layer each with ten neurons in order to carefully map the structure of chaotic time series such as Mackey-Glass time series. First the MLP network is trained with 1000 data, and then it is tested with next 500 data. After that the trained and tested network is applied for long-term prediction of next 120 data which come after test data. The prediction is such a way that, the first inputs to network for prediction are the four last data of test data, then the predicted value is shifted to the regression vector which is the input to the network, then after first four-step of prediction, the input regression vector to network is fully predicted values and in continue, each predicted data is shifted to input vector for subsequent prediction.

Uncertainty estimation of predictions of peptides' chromatographic retention times in shotgun proteomics.

Science.gov (United States)

Maboudi Afkham, Heydar; Qiu, Xuanbin; The, Matthew; Käll, Lukas

2017-02-15

Liquid chromatography is frequently used as a means to reduce the complexity of peptide-mixtures in shotgun proteomics. For such systems, the time when a peptide is released from a chromatography column and registered in the mass spectrometer is referred to as the peptide's retention time . Using heuristics or machine learning techniques, previous studies have demonstrated that it is possible to predict the retention time of a peptide from its amino acid sequence. In this paper, we are applying Gaussian Process Regression to the feature representation of a previously described predictor E lude . Using this framework, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the uncertainty of the prediction made by the model. Here we show how this uncertainty relates to the actual error of the prediction. In our experiments, we observe a strong correlation between the estimated uncertainty provided by Gaussian Process Regression and the actual prediction error. This relation provides us with new means for assessment of the predictions. We demonstrate how a subset of the peptides can be selected with lower prediction error compared to the whole set. We also demonstrate how such predicted standard deviations can be used for designing adaptive windowing strategies. lukas.kall@scilifelab.se. Our software and the data used in our experiments is publicly available and can be downloaded from https://github.com/statisticalbiotechnology/GPTime . © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Chaos Time Series Prediction Based on Membrane Optimization Algorithms

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Meng Li

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper puts forward a prediction model based on membrane computing optimization algorithm for chaos time series; the model optimizes simultaneously the parameters of phase space reconstruction (τ,m and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM (γ,σ by using membrane computing optimization algorithm. It is an important basis for spectrum management to predict accurately the change trend of parameters in the electromagnetic environment, which can help decision makers to adopt an optimal action. Then, the model presented in this paper is used to forecast band occupancy rate of frequency modulation (FM broadcasting band and interphone band. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed model, this paper will compare the forecast model presented in it with conventional similar models. The experimental results show that whether single-step prediction or multistep prediction, the proposed model performs best based on three error measures, namely, normalized mean square error (NMSE, root mean square error (RMSE, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE.

An improved grey model for the prediction of real-time GPS satellite clock bias

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Z. Y.; Chen, Y. Q.; Lu, X. S.

2008-07-01

In real-time GPS precise point positioning (PPP), real-time and reliable satellite clock bias (SCB) prediction is a key to implement real-time GPS PPP. It is difficult to hold the nuisance and inenarrable performance of space-borne GPS satellite atomic clock because of its high-frequency, sensitivity and impressionable, it accords with the property of grey model (GM) theory, i. e. we can look on the variable process of SCB as grey system. Firstly, based on limits of quadratic polynomial (QP) and traditional GM to predict SCB, a modified GM (1,1) is put forward to predict GPS SCB in this paper; and then, taking GPS SCB data for example, we analyzed clock bias prediction with different sample interval, the relationship between GM exponent and prediction accuracy, precision comparison of GM to QP, and concluded the general rule of different type SCB and GM exponent; finally, to test the reliability and validation of the modified GM what we put forward, taking IGS clock bias ephemeris product as reference, we analyzed the prediction precision with the modified GM, It is showed that the modified GM is reliable and validation to predict GPS SCB and can offer high precise SCB prediction for real-time GPS PPP.

Amygdala reactivity predicts adolescent antisocial behavior but not callous-unemotional traits

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Hailey L. Dotterer

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Recent neuroimaging studies have suggested divergent relationships between antisocial behavior (AB and callous-unemotional (CU traits and amygdala reactivity to fearful and angry facial expressions in adolescents. However, little work has examined if these findings extend to dimensional measures of behavior in ethnically diverse, non-clinical samples, or if participant sex, ethnicity, pubertal stage, and age moderate associations. We examined links between amygdala reactivity and dimensions of AB and CU traits in 220 Hispanic and non-Hispanic Caucasian adolescents (age 11–15; 49.5% female; 38.2% Hispanic, half of whom had a family history for depression and thus were at relatively elevated risk for late starting, emotionally dysregulated AB. We found that AB was significantly related to increased right amygdala reactivity to angry facial expressions independent of sex, ethnicity, pubertal stage, age, and familial risk status for depression. CU traits were not related to fear- or anger-related amygdala reactivity. The present study further demonstrates that AB is related to increased amygdala reactivity to interpersonal threat cues in adolescents, and that this relationship generalizes across sex, ethnicity, pubertal stage, age, and familial risk status for depression.

Amygdala reactivity predicts adolescent antisocial behavior but not callous-unemotional traits.

Science.gov (United States)

Dotterer, Hailey L; Hyde, Luke W; Swartz, Johnna R; Hariri, Ahmad R; Williamson, Douglas E

2017-04-01

Recent neuroimaging studies have suggested divergent relationships between antisocial behavior (AB) and callous-unemotional (CU) traits and amygdala reactivity to fearful and angry facial expressions in adolescents. However, little work has examined if these findings extend to dimensional measures of behavior in ethnically diverse, non-clinical samples, or if participant sex, ethnicity, pubertal stage, and age moderate associations. We examined links between amygdala reactivity and dimensions of AB and CU traits in 220 Hispanic and non-Hispanic Caucasian adolescents (age 11-15; 49.5% female; 38.2% Hispanic), half of whom had a family history for depression and thus were at relatively elevated risk for late starting, emotionally dysregulated AB. We found that AB was significantly related to increased right amygdala reactivity to angry facial expressions independent of sex, ethnicity, pubertal stage, age, and familial risk status for depression. CU traits were not related to fear- or anger-related amygdala reactivity. The present study further demonstrates that AB is related to increased amygdala reactivity to interpersonal threat cues in adolescents, and that this relationship generalizes across sex, ethnicity, pubertal stage, age, and familial risk status for depression. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Predict or classify: The deceptive role of time-locking in brain signal classification

Science.gov (United States)

Rusconi, Marco; Valleriani, Angelo

2016-06-01

Several experimental studies claim to be able to predict the outcome of simple decisions from brain signals measured before subjects are aware of their decision. Often, these studies use multivariate pattern recognition methods with the underlying assumption that the ability to classify the brain signal is equivalent to predict the decision itself. Here we show instead that it is possible to correctly classify a signal even if it does not contain any predictive information about the decision. We first define a simple stochastic model that mimics the random decision process between two equivalent alternatives, and generate a large number of independent trials that contain no choice-predictive information. The trials are first time-locked to the time point of the final event and then classified using standard machine-learning techniques. The resulting classification accuracy is above chance level long before the time point of time-locking. We then analyze the same trials using information theory. We demonstrate that the high classification accuracy is a consequence of time-locking and that its time behavior is simply related to the large relaxation time of the process. We conclude that when time-locking is a crucial step in the analysis of neural activity patterns, both the emergence and the timing of the classification accuracy are affected by structural properties of the network that generates the signal.

Prediction of retention times in comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography using thermodynamic models.

Science.gov (United States)

McGinitie, Teague M; Harynuk, James J

2012-09-14

A method was developed to accurately predict both the primary and secondary retention times for a series of alkanes, ketones and alcohols in a flow-modulated GC×GC system. This was accomplished through the use of a three-parameter thermodynamic model where ΔH, ΔS, and ΔC(p) for an analyte's interaction with the stationary phases in both dimensions are known. Coupling this thermodynamic model with a time summation calculation it was possible to accurately predict both (1)t(r) and (2)t(r) for all analytes. The model was able to predict retention times regardless of the temperature ramp used, with an average error of only 0.64% for (1)t(r) and an average error of only 2.22% for (2)t(r). The model shows promise for the accurate prediction of retention times in GC×GC for a wide range of compounds and is able to utilize data collected from 1D experiments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System

Science.gov (United States)

Roychoudhury, Indranil

2016-01-01

As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.

Time-varying predictability in crude-oil markets: the case of GCC countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed; Thanh Huong Dinh; Duc Khuong Nguyen

2010-01-01

This paper uses a time-varying parameter model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity effects to examine the dynamic behavior of crude-oil prices for the period February 7, 1997-January 8, 2010. Using data from four countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, we find evidence of short-term predictability in oil-price changes over time, except for several short sub-periods. However, the hypothesis of convergence towards weak-form informational efficiency is rejected for all markets. In addition, we explore the possibility of structural breaks in the time-paths of the estimated predictability indices and detect only one breakpoint, for the oil markets in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Our empirical results therefore call for new empirical research to further gauge the predictability characteristics and the determinants of oil-price changes.

Short Term Prediction of PM10 Concentrations Using Seasonal Time Series Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamid Hazrul Abdul

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Air pollution modelling is one of an important tool that usually used to make short term and long term prediction. Since air pollution gives a big impact especially to human health, prediction of air pollutants concentration is needed to help the local authorities to give an early warning to people who are in risk of acute and chronic health effects from air pollution. Finding the best time series model would allow prediction to be made accurately. This research was carried out to find the best time series model to predict the PM10 concentrations in Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. By considering two seasons which is wet season (north east monsoon and dry season (south west monsoon, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model were used to find the most suitable model to predict the PM10 concentrations in Nilai, Negeri Sembilan by using three error measures. Based on AIC statistics, results show that ARIMA (1, 1, 1 × (1, 0, 012 is the most suitable model to predict PM10 concentrations in Nilai, Negeri Sembilan.

Prospective versus predictive control in timing of hitting a falling ball.

Science.gov (United States)

Katsumata, Hiromu; Russell, Daniel M

2012-02-01

Debate exists as to whether humans use prospective or predictive control to intercept an object falling under gravity (Baurès et al. in Vis Res 47:2982-2991, 2007; Zago et al. in Vis Res 48:1532-1538, 2008). Prospective control involves using continuous information to regulate action. τ, the ratio of the size of the gap to the rate of gap closure, has been proposed as the information used in guiding interceptive actions prospectively (Lee in Ecol Psychol 10:221-250, 1998). This form of control is expected to generate movement modulation, where variability decreases over the course of an action based upon more accurate timing information. In contrast, predictive control assumes that a pre-programmed movement is triggered at an appropriate criterion timing variable. For a falling object it is commonly argued that an internal model of gravitational acceleration is used to predict the motion of the object and determine movement initiation. This form of control predicts fixed duration movements initiated at consistent time-to-contact (TTC), either across conditions (constant criterion operational timing) or within conditions (variable criterion operational timing). The current study sought to test predictive and prospective control hypotheses by disrupting continuous visual information of a falling ball and examining consistency in movement initiation and duration, and evidence for movement modulation. Participants (n = 12) batted a ball dropped from three different heights (1, 1.3 and 1.5 m), under both full-vision and partial occlusion conditions. In the occlusion condition, only the initial ball drop and the final 200 ms of ball flight to the interception point could be observed. The initiation of the swing did not occur at a consistent TTC, τ, or any other timing variable across drop heights, in contrast with previous research. However, movement onset was not impacted by occluding the ball flight for 280-380 ms. This finding indicates that humans did not

Prediction of Golden Time for Recovering the Safety Injection System in Severe LOCA Circumstances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Kim, Dong Young; Choi, Geon Pil; Back, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun

2015-01-01

In this study, the core uncovery and RV failure according to LOCA break sizes were analyzed by using the MAAP4 code when safety injection system (SIS) was not operating normally. We predicted the golden time of SIS recovery for accomplishing the reactor cold shutdown and preventing RV failure. MAAP4 code was used for severe accident analysis. The LOCA simulations were performed with break size in order to predict the golden time to recovery SIS. We predicted the golden time according to the SIS operation cases through the simulation of OPR1000. When LOCA occurred, the normal operation of SIS is very important in maintaining the integrity of NPPs. However if the SIS does not work or its actuation is delayed due to failure of the equipment, the DBA will lead to a severe accident. In this study, accident situations that SIS does not work normally were assumed and a number of MAAP4 code simulations were conducted. In addition, core uncovery time and RV failure time were predicted. If the recovery time of SIS for accident recovery is predicted, the core will not be exposed through appropriate action

The Role of Present Time Perspective in Predicting Early Adolescent Violence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruger, Daniel J; Carrothers, Jessica; Franzen, Susan P; Miller, Alison L; Reischl, Thomas M; Stoddard, Sarah A; Zimmerman, Marc A

2018-06-01

This study investigated the role of present and future time perspectives, and their relationships with subjective norms and beliefs regarding violence, in predicting violent behaviors among urban middle school students in the Midwestern United States. Although present time perspective covaried with subjective norms and beliefs, each made a unique prediction of self-reported violent behaviors. Future time perspective was not a significant predictor when accounting for these relationships. In addition, present orientation moderated the relationship between subjective norms and beliefs and rates of violent behaviors; those with higher present orientations exhibited stronger associations. We replicated this pattern of results in data from new participants in a subsequent wave of the study. Interventions that explicitly address issues related to time perspective may be effective in reducing early adolescent violence.

Offset-Free Direct Power Control of DFIG Under Continuous-Time Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Errouissi, Rachid; Al-Durra, Ahmed; Muyeen, S.M.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a robust continuous-time model predictive direct power control for doubly fed induction generator (DFIG). The proposed approach uses Taylor series expansion to predict the stator current in the synchronous reference frame over a finite time horizon. The predicted stator current...... is directly used to compute the required rotor voltage in order to minimize the difference between the actual stator currents and their references over the predictive time. However, as the proposed strategy is sensitive to parameter variations and external disturbances, a disturbance observer is embedded...... into the control loop to remove the steady-state error of the stator current. It turns out that the steady-state and the transient performances can be identified by simple design parameters. In this paper, the reference of the stator current is directly calculated from the desired stator active and reactive powers...

Study on real-time elevator brake failure predictive system

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Jun; Fan, Jinwei

2013-10-01

This paper presented a real-time failure predictive system of the elevator brake. Through inspecting the running state of the coil by a high precision long range laser triangulation non-contact measurement sensor, the displacement curve of the coil is gathered without interfering the original system. By analyzing the displacement data using the diagnostic algorithm, the hidden danger of the brake system can be discovered in time and thus avoid the according accident.

Prediction problem for target events based on the inter-event waiting time

Science.gov (United States)

Shapoval, A.

2010-11-01

In this paper we address the problem of forecasting the target events of a time series given the distribution ξ of time gaps between target events. Strong earthquakes and stock market crashes are the two types of such events that we are focusing on. In the series of earthquakes, as McCann et al. show [W.R. Mc Cann, S.P. Nishenko, L.R. Sykes, J. Krause, Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries, Pure and Applied Geophysics 117 (1979) 1082-1147], there are well-defined gaps (called seismic gaps) between strong earthquakes. On the other hand, usually there are no regular gaps in the series of stock market crashes [M. Raberto, E. Scalas, F. Mainardi, Waiting-times and returns in high-frequency financial data: an empirical study, Physica A 314 (2002) 749-755]. For the case of seismic gaps, we analytically derive an upper bound of prediction efficiency given the coefficient of variation of the distribution ξ. For the case of stock market crashes, we develop an algorithm that predicts the next crash within a certain time interval after the previous one. We show that this algorithm outperforms random prediction. The efficiency of our algorithm sets up a lower bound of efficiency for effective prediction of stock market crashes.

Real coded genetic algorithm for fuzzy time series prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Shilpa; Bisht, Dinesh C. S.; Singh, Phool; Mathpal, Prakash C.

2017-10-01

Genetic Algorithm (GA) forms a subset of evolutionary computing, rapidly growing area of Artificial Intelligence (A.I.). Some variants of GA are binary GA, real GA, messy GA, micro GA, saw tooth GA, differential evolution GA. This research article presents a real coded GA for predicting enrollments of University of Alabama. Data of Alabama University is a fuzzy time series. Here, fuzzy logic is used to predict enrollments of Alabama University and genetic algorithm optimizes fuzzy intervals. Results are compared to other eminent author works and found satisfactory, and states that real coded GA are fast and accurate.

Linear and nonlinear dynamic systems in financial time series prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salim Lahmiri

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Autoregressive moving average (ARMA process and dynamic neural networks namely the nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARX are compared by evaluating their ability to predict financial time series; for instance the S&P500 returns. Two classes of ARMA are considered. The first one is the standard ARMA model which is a linear static system. The second one uses Kalman filter (KF to estimate and predict ARMA coefficients. This model is a linear dynamic system. The forecasting ability of each system is evaluated by means of mean absolute error (MAE and mean absolute deviation (MAD statistics. Simulation results indicate that the ARMA-KF system performs better than the standard ARMA alone. Thus, introducing dynamics into the ARMA process improves the forecasting accuracy. In addition, the ARMA-KF outperformed the NARX. This result may suggest that the linear component found in the S&P500 return series is more dominant than the nonlinear part. In sum, we conclude that introducing dynamics into the ARMA process provides an effective system for S&P500 time series prediction.

Task-related increases in fatigue predict recovery time after academic stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Blasche, Gerhard; Zilic, Jelena; Frischenschlager, Oskar

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the time course of recovery after an academic exam as a model of high workload and its association with stress-related fatigue. Thirty-six medical students (17 females, 19 males) filled out diaries during an exam phase, starting 2 days prior to the exam, and a control phase 4 weeks after the exam for 14 days, respectively. Fatigue, distress, quality of sleep, and health complaints were assessed. Recovery time was determined for each individual and variable by comparing the 3-day average with the confidence interval of the control phase. Recovery time was predicted by Cox regression analyses. Recovery times of all variables except health complaints were predicted by stress-related fatigue. Half of the individuals had recovered after 6 days, and 80% of the individuals had recovered after 8 days. The time necessary for recovery from work demands is determined by fatigue as a measure of resource depletion.

Measurement and Prediction of Time-independent and Time-dependent Rheological Behavior of Waxy Crude Oil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yavar Karimi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Wax deposition phenomenon changes the rheological behavior of waxy crude oil completely. In the current work, the rheological time-dependent and time-independent behaviors of waxy crude oil samples are studied and flow curve and compliance function are measured for the oil samples with various wax contents at different temperatures. A decrease in temperature and an increase in wax content lead to an increase in the viscosity and yield stress but a significant drop in compliance function. A modified Burger model is developed to predict the behavior of the compliance function and a modified Casson model is used to predict the flow curve of the waxy crude oil samples within a vast range of wax contents and temperatures. The proposed Burger and Casson models match with experimental results with R2 of 99.7% and 97.33% respectively.

Improved time series prediction with a new method for selection of model parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jade, A M; Jayaraman, V K; Kulkarni, B D

2006-01-01

A new method for model selection in prediction of time series is proposed. Apart from the conventional criterion of minimizing RMS error, the method also minimizes the error on the distribution of singularities, evaluated through the local Hoelder estimates and its probability density spectrum. Predictions of two simulated and one real time series have been done using kernel principal component regression (KPCR) and model parameters of KPCR have been selected employing the proposed as well as the conventional method. Results obtained demonstrate that the proposed method takes into account the sharp changes in a time series and improves the generalization capability of the KPCR model for better prediction of the unseen test data. (letter to the editor)

Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jie Wang

2016-01-01

(ERNN, the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.

Diversity of activity participation determines bone mineral content in the lower limbs of pre-pubertal children with developmental coordination disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Fong, S S M; Vackova, D; Choi, A W M; Cheng, Y T Y; Yam, T T T; Guo, X

2018-04-01

This study examined the relationships between activity participation and bone mineralization in children with developmental coordination disorder. Limited participation in physical, recreational, social, and skill-based and self-improvement activities contributed to lower bone mineral content. For improved bone health, these children should participate in a variety of activities, not only physical activities. Limited activity participation in children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD) may have a negative impact on bone mineral accrual. The objectives of this study were to compare bone mineralization and activity participation patterns of pre-pubertal children with DCD and those with typical development, and to determine the association between activity participation patterns and bone mineralization in children with DCD. Fifty-two children with DCD (mean age = 7.51 years) and 61 children with typical development (mean age = 7.22 years) participated in the study. Appendicular and total body (less head) bone mineral content (BMC) and bone mineral density (BMD) were evaluated by a whole-body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scan. Activity participation patterns were assessed using the Children's Assessment of Participation and Enjoyment (CAPE) questionnaire. Children with DCD had lower appendicular and total body BMCs and BMDs than children with typical development overall (p accounting for the effects of age, sex, height, lean mass, and fat mass, the total activity diversity score remained independently associated with leg BMC in children with DCD, explaining 5.1% of the variance (p = 0.030). However, the physical activity diversity score was no longer associated with leg BMC (p = 0.090). Diversity of activity participation and bone mineralization were lower in pre-pubertal children with DCD. Decreased total activity participation diversity was a contributing factor to lower BMC in the legs of children with DCD.

Evaluation of a real-time travel time prediction system in a freeway construction work zone : final report, March 2001.

Science.gov (United States)

2001-03-01

A real-time travel time prediction system (TIPS) was evaluated in a construction work zone. TIPS includes changeable message signs (CMSs) displaying the travel time and distance to the end of the work zone to motorists. The travel times displayed by ...

Stress hormones predict hyperbolic time-discount rates six months later in adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Taiki; Shinada, Mizuho; Inukai, Keigo; Tanida, Shigehito; Takahashi, Chisato; Mifune, Nobuhiro; Takagishi, Haruto; Horita, Yutaka; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Yokota, Kunihiro; Kameda, Tatsuya; Yamagishi, Toshio

2010-01-01

Stress hormones have been associated with temporal discounting. Although time-discount rate is shown to be stable over a long term, no study to date examines whether individual differences in stress hormones could predict individuals' time-discount rates in the relatively distant future (e.g., six month later), which is of interest in neuroeconomics of stress-addiction association. We assessed 87 participants' salivary stress hormone (cortisol, cortisone, and alpha-amylase) levels and hyperbolic discounting of delayed rewards consisting of three magnitudes, at the time-interval of six months. For salivary steroid assays, we employed a liquid chromatography/ mass spectroscopy (LC/MS) method. The correlations between the stress hormone levels and time-discount rates were examined. We observed that salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) levels were negatively associated with time-discount rates in never-smokers. Notably, salivary levels of stress steroids (i.e., cortisol and cortisone) negatively and positively related to time-discount rates in men and women, respectively, in never-smokers. Ever-smokers' discount rates were not predicted from these stress hormone levels. Individual differences in stress hormone levels predict impulsivity in temporal discounting in the future. There are sex differences in the effect of stress steroids on temporal discounting; while there was no sex defference in the relationship between sAA and temporal discounting.

EMD-Based Predictive Deep Belief Network for Time Series Prediction: An Application to Drought Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Norbert A. Agana

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Drought is a stochastic natural feature that arises due to intense and persistent shortage of precipitation. Its impact is mostly manifested as agricultural and hydrological droughts following an initial meteorological phenomenon. Drought prediction is essential because it can aid in the preparedness and impact-related management of its effects. This study considers the drought forecasting problem by developing a hybrid predictive model using a denoised empirical mode decomposition (EMD and a deep belief network (DBN. The proposed method first decomposes the data into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs using EMD, and a reconstruction of the original data is obtained by considering only relevant IMFs. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA was applied to each IMF to determine the threshold for robust denoising performance. Based on their scaling exponents, irrelevant intrinsic mode functions are identified and suppressed. The proposed method was applied to predict different time scale drought indices across the Colorado River basin using a standardized streamflow index (SSI as the drought index. The results obtained using the proposed method was compared with standard methods such as multilayer perceptron (MLP and support vector regression (SVR. The proposed hybrid model showed improvement in prediction accuracy, especially for multi-step ahead predictions.

Time-series prediction of shellfish farm closure: A comparison of alternatives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashfaqur Rahman

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Shellfish farms are closed for harvest when microbial pollutants are present. Such pollutants are typically present in rainfall runoff from various land uses in catchments. Experts currently use a number of observable parameters (river flow, rainfall, salinity as proxies to determine when to close farms. We have proposed using the short term historical rainfall data as a time-series prediction problem where we aim to predict the closure of shellfish farms based only on rainfall. Time-series event prediction consists of two steps: (i feature extraction, and (ii prediction. A number of data mining challenges exist for these scenarios: (i which feature extraction method best captures the rainfall pattern over successive days that leads to opening or closure of the farms?, (ii The farm closure events occur infrequently and this leads to a class imbalance problem; the question is what is the best way to deal with this problem? In this paper we have analysed and compared different combinations of balancing methods (under-sampling and over-sampling, feature extraction methods (cluster profile, curve fitting, Fourier Transform, Piecewise Aggregate Approximation, and Wavelet Transform and learning algorithms (neural network, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbour, decision tree, and Bayesian Network to predict closure events accurately considering the above data mining challenges. We have identified the best combination of techniques to accurately predict shellfish farm closure from rainfall, given the above data mining challenges.

Prediction of drop time and impact velocity of rod cluster control assembly

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Kee Sung; Yim, Jeong Sik; Kim, Il Kon; Kim, Kyu Tae

1992-01-01

This paper deals with the drop modelling of rod cluster control assembly(RCCA) and the prediction of drop time and impact velocity of RCCA at scram event. On the scram, RCCA, dropping into the guide thimble of fuel assembly by the gravity, is subject to retarding forces such as hydraulic resistance, mechanical friction and buoyancy. Considering these retarding forces RCCA dynamic equation is derived and computerized it to solve the equation in conjunction with fluid equation which is coupled with the motion of the RCCA. Because the equation is nonlinear, coupled with fluid equations, the program is written in FORTRAN using numerical method in order to calculate the drop distance and velocity with time increment. To verify the program, its results are compared with those of other fuel vendors. Predicting identical tendency as other fuel vendors and the deviation is insignificant in values this program is expected to be used for predicting the drop time and impact velocity of RCCA when the parameters affecting the control rod drop time and impact velocity changes are occurred

SU-F-P-20: Predicting Waiting Times in Radiation Oncology Using Machine Learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joseph, A; Herrera, D; Hijal, T; Kildea, J; Hendren, L; Leung, A; Wainberg, J; Sawaf, M; Gorshkov, M; Maglieri, R; Keshavarz, M

2016-01-01

Purpose: Waiting times remain one of the most vexing patient satisfaction challenges facing healthcare. Waiting time uncertainty can cause patients, who are already sick or in pain, to worry about when they will receive the care they need. These waiting periods are often difficult for staff to predict and only rough estimates are typically provided based on personal experience. This level of uncertainty leaves most patients unable to plan their calendar, making the waiting experience uncomfortable, even painful. In the present era of electronic health records (EHRs), waiting times need not be so uncertain. Extensive EHRs provide unprecedented amounts of data that can statistically cluster towards representative values when appropriate patient cohorts are selected. Predictive modelling, such as machine learning, is a powerful approach that benefits from large, potentially complex, datasets. The essence of machine learning is to predict future outcomes by learning from previous experience. The application of a machine learning algorithm to waiting time data has the potential to produce personalized waiting time predictions such that the uncertainty may be removed from the patient’s waiting experience. Methods: In radiation oncology, patients typically experience several types of waiting (eg waiting at home for treatment planning, waiting in the waiting room for oncologist appointments and daily waiting in the waiting room for radiotherapy treatments). A daily treatment wait time model is discussed in this report. To develop a prediction model using our large dataset (with more than 100k sample points) a variety of machine learning algorithms from the Python package sklearn were tested. Results: We found that the Random Forest Regressor model provides the best predictions for daily radiotherapy treatment waiting times. Using this model, we achieved a median residual (actual value minus predicted value) of 0.25 minutes and a standard deviation residual of 6.5 minutes

SU-F-P-20: Predicting Waiting Times in Radiation Oncology Using Machine Learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joseph, A; Herrera, D; Hijal, T; Kildea, J [McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Hendren, L; Leung, A; Wainberg, J; Sawaf, M; Gorshkov, M; Maglieri, R; Keshavarz, M [McGill University, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

2016-06-15

Purpose: Waiting times remain one of the most vexing patient satisfaction challenges facing healthcare. Waiting time uncertainty can cause patients, who are already sick or in pain, to worry about when they will receive the care they need. These waiting periods are often difficult for staff to predict and only rough estimates are typically provided based on personal experience. This level of uncertainty leaves most patients unable to plan their calendar, making the waiting experience uncomfortable, even painful. In the present era of electronic health records (EHRs), waiting times need not be so uncertain. Extensive EHRs provide unprecedented amounts of data that can statistically cluster towards representative values when appropriate patient cohorts are selected. Predictive modelling, such as machine learning, is a powerful approach that benefits from large, potentially complex, datasets. The essence of machine learning is to predict future outcomes by learning from previous experience. The application of a machine learning algorithm to waiting time data has the potential to produce personalized waiting time predictions such that the uncertainty may be removed from the patient’s waiting experience. Methods: In radiation oncology, patients typically experience several types of waiting (eg waiting at home for treatment planning, waiting in the waiting room for oncologist appointments and daily waiting in the waiting room for radiotherapy treatments). A daily treatment wait time model is discussed in this report. To develop a prediction model using our large dataset (with more than 100k sample points) a variety of machine learning algorithms from the Python package sklearn were tested. Results: We found that the Random Forest Regressor model provides the best predictions for daily radiotherapy treatment waiting times. Using this model, we achieved a median residual (actual value minus predicted value) of 0.25 minutes and a standard deviation residual of 6.5 minutes

Kernel density estimation-based real-time prediction for respiratory motion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruan, Dan

2010-01-01

Effective delivery of adaptive radiotherapy requires locating the target with high precision in real time. System latency caused by data acquisition, streaming, processing and delivery control necessitates prediction. Prediction is particularly challenging for highly mobile targets such as thoracic and abdominal tumors undergoing respiration-induced motion. The complexity of the respiratory motion makes it difficult to build and justify explicit models. In this study, we honor the intrinsic uncertainties in respiratory motion and propose a statistical treatment of the prediction problem. Instead of asking for a deterministic covariate-response map and a unique estimate value for future target position, we aim to obtain a distribution of the future target position (response variable) conditioned on the observed historical sample values (covariate variable). The key idea is to estimate the joint probability distribution (pdf) of the covariate and response variables using an efficient kernel density estimation method. Then, the problem of identifying the distribution of the future target position reduces to identifying the section in the joint pdf based on the observed covariate. Subsequently, estimators are derived based on this estimated conditional distribution. This probabilistic perspective has some distinctive advantages over existing deterministic schemes: (1) it is compatible with potentially inconsistent training samples, i.e., when close covariate variables correspond to dramatically different response values; (2) it is not restricted by any prior structural assumption on the map between the covariate and the response; (3) the two-stage setup allows much freedom in choosing statistical estimates and provides a full nonparametric description of the uncertainty for the resulting estimate. We evaluated the prediction performance on ten patient RPM traces, using the root mean squared difference between the prediction and the observed value normalized by the

A time-spectral approach to numerical weather prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Scheffel, Jan; Lindvall, Kristoffer; Yik, Hiu Fai

2018-05-01

Finite difference methods are traditionally used for modelling the time domain in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Time-spectral solution is an attractive alternative for reasons of accuracy and efficiency and because time step limitations associated with causal CFL-like criteria, typical for explicit finite difference methods, are avoided. In this work, the Lorenz 1984 chaotic equations are solved using the time-spectral algorithm GWRM (Generalized Weighted Residual Method). Comparisons of accuracy and efficiency are carried out for both explicit and implicit time-stepping algorithms. It is found that the efficiency of the GWRM compares well with these methods, in particular at high accuracy. For perturbative scenarios, the GWRM was found to be as much as four times faster than the finite difference methods. A primary reason is that the GWRM time intervals typically are two orders of magnitude larger than those of the finite difference methods. The GWRM has the additional advantage to produce analytical solutions in the form of Chebyshev series expansions. The results are encouraging for pursuing further studies, including spatial dependence, of the relevance of time-spectral methods for NWP modelling.

Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Blois, Jessica L; Williams, John W; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Jackson, Stephen T; Ferrier, Simon

2013-06-04

"Space-for-time" substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption--that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity--rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as "time-for-time" predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.

FREEZING AND THAWING TIME PREDICTION METHODS OF FOODS II: NUMARICAL METHODS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yahya TÜLEK

1999-03-01

Full Text Available Freezing is one of the excellent methods for the preservation of foods. If freezing and thawing processes and frozen storage method are carried out correctly, the original characteristics of the foods can remain almost unchanged over an extended periods of time. It is very important to determine the freezing and thawing time period of the foods, as they strongly influence the both quality of food material and process productivity and the economy. For developing a simple and effectively usable mathematical model, less amount of process parameters and physical properties should be enrolled in calculations. But it is a difficult to have all of these in one prediction method. For this reason, various freezing and thawing time prediction methods were proposed in literature and research studies have been going on.

The Effects of Pubertal Timing on Body Image, School Behavior, and Deviance.

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Paula Duke; And Others

1985-01-01

Data from the National Health Examination Survey, a national probability sample of children and youth aged 12-17, was used to investigate the relationships between maturational timing and body image, school behavior, and deviance. (Author/LMO)

Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

2016-08-01

The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

Real Time Seismic Prediction while Drilling

Science.gov (United States)

Schilling, F. R.; Bohlen, T.; Edelmann, T.; Kassel, A.; Heim, A.; Gehring, M.; Lüth, S.; Giese, R.; Jaksch, K.; Rechlin, A.; Kopf, M.; Stahlmann, J.; Gattermann, J.; Bruns, B.

2009-12-01

Efficient and safe drilling is a prerequisite to enhance the mobility of people and goods, to improve the traffic as well as utility infrastructure of growing megacities, and to ensure the growing energy demand while building geothermal and in hydroelectric power plants. Construction within the underground is often building within the unknown. An enhanced risk potential for people and the underground building may arise if drilling enters fracture zones, karsts, brittle rocks, mixed solid and soft rocks, caves, or anthropogenic obstacles. Knowing about the material behavior ahead of the drilling allows reducing the risk during drilling and construction operation. In drilling operations direct observations from boreholes can be complemented with geophysical investigations. In this presentation we focus on “real time” seismic prediction while drilling which is seen as a prerequisite while using geophysical methods in modern drilling operations. In solid rocks P- and S-wave velocity, refraction and reflection as well as seismic wave attenuation can be used for the interpretation of structures ahead of the drilling. An Integrated Seismic Imaging System (ISIS) for exploration ahead of a construction is used, where a pneumatic hammer or a magnetostrictive vibration source generate repetitive signals behind the tunneling machine. Tube waves are generated which travel along the tunnel to the working face. There the tube waves are converted to mainly S- but also P-Waves which interact with the formation ahead of the heading face. The reflected or refracted waves travel back to the working front are converted back to tube waves and recorded using three-component geophones which are fit into the tips of anchor rods. In near real time, the ISIS software allows for an integrated 3D imaging and interpretation of the observed data, geological and geotechnical parameters. Fracture zones, heterogeneities, and variations in the rock properties can be revealed during the drilling

Reservoir computer predictions for the Three Meter magnetic field time evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Perevalov, A.; Rojas, R.; Lathrop, D. P.; Shani, I.; Hunt, B. R.

2017-12-01

The source of the Earth's magnetic field is the turbulent flow of liquid metal in the outer core. Our experiment's goal is to create Earth-like dynamo, to explore the mechanisms and to understand the dynamics of the magnetic and velocity fields. Since it is a complicated system, predictions of the magnetic field is a challenging problem. We present results of mimicking the three Meter experiment by a reservoir computer deep learning algorithm. The experiment is a three-meter diameter outer sphere and a one-meter diameter inner sphere with the gap filled with liquid sodium. The spheres can rotate up to 4 and 14 Hz respectively, giving a Reynolds number near to 108. Two external electromagnets apply magnetic fields, while an array of 31 external and 2 internal Hall sensors measure the resulting induced fields. We use this magnetic probe data to train a reservoir computer to predict the 3M time evolution and mimic waves in the experiment. Surprisingly accurate predictions can be made for several magnetic dipole time scales. This shows that such a complicated MHD system's behavior can be predicted. We gratefully acknowledge support from NSF EAR-1417148.

Prediction about chaotic times series of natural circulation flow under rolling motion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan Can; Cai Qi; Guo Li; Yan Feng

2014-01-01

The paper have proposed a chaotic time series prediction model, which combined phase space reconstruction with support vector machines. The model has been used to predict the coolant volume flow, in which a synchronous parameter optimization method was brought up based on particle swarm optimization algorithm, since the numerical value selection of related parameter was a key factor for the prediction precision. The average relative error of prediction values and actual observation values was l,5% and relative precision was 0.9879. The result indicated that the model could apply for the natural circulation coolant volume flow prediction under rolling motion condition with high accuracy and robustness. (authors)

Effect of Leaked Radiation from Microwave Oven on Bone Marrow of Male Rats in Pre and Post Pubertal Stage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G Jelodar

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Increasing hematological diseases along with increased use of microwaves in different systems proposed possible correlation between them. Age of exposure to wave is also an important factor. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of radiation leakaged from microwave oven on hemopoitic bone marrow cells at pre and post pubertal. Methods: Fourteen male mature (2 months old and 14 male immature rats(one month old were randomly divided in to four groups (control and test. Test groups were exposed, three times a day each time 30 min for 60 days, to microwaves produced by microwave oven. After sixty days, animals were sacrified and bone marrow samples were collected from femural bones. Percent of variose cells type and their morphology were evaluated in 500 cells of each smear. Results: exposure to microwave did not exert visible morphological alteration. In the immature experimental group significant decrease in percent of basophilic rubricyte, polychromatic rubricyte, meta rubricyte and all the erythroid cell types observed(P<0.05, whereas, meta myelocyte, notrophilic band, total myeloid cell types and prolifrative cells, other cell types and the myeloid/erythroid ratio significantly increased(P<0.05. In the mature group, however, a significant decrease in percent of meta rubricyte and myelocyte cells observed(P<0.05, although prolifrative cells and all other cell types were significantly increasing in this group. Conclusion: In conclusion, the radiation leaked from microwave oven in the experimental conditions had no effect on the morphology of hemopoitic bone marrow cells, though the number of these cells was altered especially in immature group.

Pedometer assessed physical activity in urban pubertal children: first report from India.

Science.gov (United States)

Contractor, Aashish; Bhanushali, Aparna; Changrani, Jyotsna; Angadia, Siddharth; Das, Bibhu R

2014-11-01

Inadequate physical activity is a risk factor for several lifestyle diseases. In the current study we have tried to evaluate the physical activity levels in urban Indian pubertal children as well as investigate the relationship between step counts and body composition. A total of 1032 children aged 12 to 15 years wore pedometers for 2 weekdays and 2 weekend days, the final cohort included 910 subjects with 467 boys and 443 girls. Mean weekday steps were 11,062 ± 4741 for boys and 9619 ± 4144 for girls; weekend steps were 10,842 ± 5034 for boys and 9146 ± 5159 for girls, which were both significantly different. The weekend steps were consistently lower in both genders. Analysis of children not meeting a cut-off of 10,000 steps indicated that 45% of the boys aged 12; 54% aged 13; 43% to 48% aged 14 and 50% in the aged 15 did not meet the cut-off. In girls higher levels of inactivity were seen with 58% to 65% aged 12; 69% to 73% aged 13; 49% to 58% aged 14 and 50% to 100% in age-group 15 did not meet the cut-off on weekdays and weekends respectively. The high level of physical inactivity in the representative urban Indian children is a cause of grave concern and necessitates urgent intervention strategies to be formulated.

Working Memory and Auditory Imagery Predict Sensorimotor Synchronization with Expressively Timed Music.

Science.gov (United States)

Colley, Ian D; Keller, Peter E; Halpern, Andrea R

2017-08-11

Sensorimotor synchronization (SMS) is prevalent and readily studied in musical settings, as most people are able to perceive and synchronize with a beat (e.g. by finger tapping). We took an individual differences approach to understanding SMS to real music characterized by expressive timing (i.e. fluctuating beat regularity). Given the dynamic nature of SMS, we hypothesized that individual differences in working memory and auditory imagery-both fluid cognitive processes-would predict SMS at two levels: 1) mean absolute asynchrony (a measure of synchronization error), and 2) anticipatory timing (i.e. predicting, rather than reacting to beat intervals). In Experiment 1, participants completed two working memory tasks, four auditory imagery tasks, and an SMS-tapping task. Hierarchical regression models were used to predict SMS performance, with results showing dissociations among imagery types in relation to mean absolute asynchrony, and evidence of a role for working memory in anticipatory timing. In Experiment 2, a new sample of participants completed an expressive timing perception task to examine the role of imagery in perception without action. Results suggest that imagery vividness is important for perceiving and control is important for synchronizing with, irregular but ecologically valid musical time series. Working memory is implicated in synchronizing by anticipating events in the series.

The timing of normal puberty and the age limits of sexual precocity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Parent, Anne-Simone; Teilmann, Grete; Juul, Anders

2003-01-01

During the past decade, possible advancement in timing of puberty has been reported in the United States. In addition, early pubertal development and an increased incidence of sexual precocity have been noticed in children, primarily girls, migrating for foreign adoption in several Western European...... the environment has been considered. These observations urge further study of the onset of puberty as a possible sensitive and early marker of the interactions between environmental conditions and genetic susceptibility that can influence physiological and pathological processes....

Predicting pornography use over time: Does self-reported "addiction" matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Grubbs, Joshua B; Wilt, Joshua A; Exline, Julie J; Pargament, Kenneth I

2018-07-01

In recent years, several works have reported on perceived addiction to internet pornography, or the potential for some individuals to label their own use of pornography as compulsive or out of control. Such works have consistently found that perceived addiction is related to concerning outcomes such as psychological distress, relational distress, and other addictive behaviors. However, very little work has specifically examined whether or not perceived addiction is actually related to increased use of pornography, cross-sectionally or over time. The present work sought to address this deficit in the literature. Using two longitudinal samples (Sample 1, Baseline N = 3988; Sample 2, Baseline N = 1047), a variety of factors (e.g., male gender, lower religiousness, and lower self-control) were found to predict any use of pornography. Among those that acknowledged use (Sample 1, Baseline N = 1352; Sample 2, Baseline N = 793), perceived addiction to pornography consistently predicted greater average daily use of pornography. At subsequent longitudinal follow-ups (Sample 1, Baseline N = 265; Sample 2, One Month Later, N = 410, One Year Later, N = 360), only male gender and baseline average pornography use consistently predicted future use. These findings suggest that perceived addiction to pornography is associated with concurrent use of pornography, but does not appear to predict use over time, suggesting that perceived addiction may not always be an accurate indicator of behavior or addiction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Just-in-Time Correntropy Soft Sensor with Noisy Data for Industrial Silicon Content Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Kun; Liang, Yu; Gao, Zengliang; Liu, Yi

2017-08-08

Development of accurate data-driven quality prediction models for industrial blast furnaces encounters several challenges mainly because the collected data are nonlinear, non-Gaussian, and uneven distributed. A just-in-time correntropy-based local soft sensing approach is presented to predict the silicon content in this work. Without cumbersome efforts for outlier detection, a correntropy support vector regression (CSVR) modeling framework is proposed to deal with the soft sensor development and outlier detection simultaneously. Moreover, with a continuous updating database and a clustering strategy, a just-in-time CSVR (JCSVR) method is developed. Consequently, more accurate prediction and efficient implementations of JCSVR can be achieved. Better prediction performance of JCSVR is validated on the online silicon content prediction, compared with traditional soft sensors.

A Seasonal Time-Series Model Based on Gene Expression Programming for Predicting Financial Distress.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Chan, Chia-Pang; Yang, Jun-He

2018-01-01

The issue of financial distress prediction plays an important and challenging research topic in the financial field. Currently, there have been many methods for predicting firm bankruptcy and financial crisis, including the artificial intelligence and the traditional statistical methods, and the past studies have shown that the prediction result of the artificial intelligence method is better than the traditional statistical method. Financial statements are quarterly reports; hence, the financial crisis of companies is seasonal time-series data, and the attribute data affecting the financial distress of companies is nonlinear and nonstationary time-series data with fluctuations. Therefore, this study employed the nonlinear attribute selection method to build a nonlinear financial distress prediction model: that is, this paper proposed a novel seasonal time-series gene expression programming model for predicting the financial distress of companies. The proposed model has several advantages including the following: (i) the proposed model is different from the previous models lacking the concept of time series; (ii) the proposed integrated attribute selection method can find the core attributes and reduce high dimensional data; and (iii) the proposed model can generate the rules and mathematical formulas of financial distress for providing references to the investors and decision makers. The result shows that the proposed method is better than the listing classifiers under three criteria; hence, the proposed model has competitive advantages in predicting the financial distress of companies.

Adolescents' technology and face-to-face time use predict objective sleep outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tavernier, Royette; Heissel, Jennifer A; Sladek, Michael R; Grant, Kathryn E; Adam, Emma K

2017-08-01

The present study examined both within- and between-person associations between adolescents' time use (technology-based activities and face-to-face interactions with friends and family) and sleep behaviors. We also assessed whether age moderated associations between adolescents' time use with friends and family and sleep. Adolescents wore an actigraph monitor and completed brief evening surveys daily for 3 consecutive days. Adolescents (N=71; mean age=14.50 years old, SD=1.84; 43.7% female) were recruited from 3 public high schools in the Midwest. We assessed 8 technology-based activities (eg, texting, working on a computer), as well as time spent engaged in face-to-face interactions with friends and family, via questions on adolescents' evening surveys. Actigraph monitors assessed 3 sleep behaviors: sleep latency, sleep hours, and sleep efficiency. Hierarchical linear models indicated that texting and working on the computer were associated with shorter sleep, whereas time spent talking on the phone predicted longer sleep. Time spent with friends predicted shorter sleep latencies, while family time predicted longer sleep latencies. Age moderated the association between time spent with friends and sleep efficiency, as well as between family time and sleep efficiency. Specifically, longer time spent interacting with friends was associated with higher sleep efficiency but only among younger adolescents. Furthermore, longer family time was associated with higher sleep efficiency but only for older adolescents. Findings are discussed in terms of the importance of regulating adolescents' technology use and improving opportunities for face-to-face interactions with friends, particularly for younger adolescents. Copyright © 2017 National Sleep Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic Variation of Follicle-Stimulating Hormone Action Is Associated With Age at Testicular Growth in Boys

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Busch, Alexander S; Hagen, Casper P; Main, Katharina M

2017-01-01

Context: Although genetic factors play a pivotal role in male pubertal timing, genome-wide association studies have identified only a few loci. Genetic variation of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) action affects adult reproductive parameters and female pubertal timing. Objective: To investigate...... effective FSH action. Effects explained 1.7% (Denmark) and 1.5% (Chile) of the variance. In addition, BMI z score was negatively associated with pubertal timing (β = -0.35 years in both cohorts), explaining 17.2% (Denmark) and 7.2% (Chile) of the variance. Conclusion: In two ethnically distinct populations...

Secular trends of growth and pubertal maturation of school children in Southern Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaruratanasirikul, Somchit; Sriplung, Hutcha

2015-01-01

In Thailand, studies of growth date back to 1975, but there have been no studies examining any trends in increasing/decreasing growth. To determine if there have been any secular trends of increasing/decreasing growth and/or ages at puberty in Thai children. In 2012, a cross-sectional study of growth was conducted in 3460 children. The median heights and weights and the ages of pubertal maturation were compared with previous studies. Correlations between the secular trends and the health statistics indicators were calculated. From 1975-2012, the median final height of boys and girls had increased by 1.32 and 0.86 cm/decade and weight by 2.49 and 1.76 kg/decade, respectively. In girls, the age at thelarche and menarche had declined by 0.39 and 0.12 years/decade, respectively. In boys, the age at testicular enlargement Tanner II had declined by 0.15 years/decade. Increased physical growth was positively correlated to life expectancy, per capita income and prevalence of overweight/obesity was negatively correlated to prevalence of malnutrition and under-five mortality rate. The positive secular trend towards an increase in growth and a decline in the age at onset of puberty of Thai children is correlated with improvements in overall living conditions in Thailand.

Improving performance of single-path code through a time-predictable memory hierarchy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cilku, Bekim; Puffitsch, Wolfgang; Prokesch, Daniel

2017-01-01

-predictable memory hierarchy with a prefetcher that exploits the predictability of execution traces in single-path code to speed up code execution. The new memory hierarchy reduces both the cache-miss penalty time and the cache-miss rate on the instruction cache. The benefit of the approach is demonstrated through...

Comparison of Taxi Time Prediction Performance Using Different Taxi Speed Decision Trees

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hanbong

2017-01-01

In the STBO modeler and tactical surface scheduler for ATD-2 project, taxi speed decision trees are used to calculate the unimpeded taxi times of flights taxiing on the airport surface. The initial taxi speed values in these decision trees did not show good prediction accuracy of taxi times. Using the more recent, reliable surveillance data, new taxi speed values in ramp area and movement area were computed. Before integrating these values into the STBO system, we performed test runs using live data from Charlotte airport, with different taxi speed settings: 1) initial taxi speed values and 2) new ones. Taxi time prediction performance was evaluated by comparing various metrics. The results show that the new taxi speed decision trees can calculate the unimpeded taxi-out times more accurately.

Genetic factors modulate the impact of pubertal androgen excess on insulin sensitivity and fertility.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abigail R Dowling

Full Text Available Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS is the most common endocrine disorder of reproductive age women. The syndrome is caused by a combination of environmental influences and genetic predisposition. Despite extensive efforts, the heritable factors contributing to PCOS development are not fully understood. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that genetic background contributes to the development of a PCOS-like reproductive and metabolic phenotype in mice exposed to excess DHEA during the pubertal transition. We tested whether the PCOS phenotype would be more pronounced on the diabetes-prone C57BL/6 background than the previously used strain, BALB/cByJ. In addition, we examined strain-dependent upregulation of the expression of ovarian and extra-ovarian candidate genes implicated in human PCOS, genes containing known strain variants, and genes involved with steroidogenesis or insulin sensitivity. These studies show that there are significant strain-related differences in metabolic response to excess androgen exposure during puberty. Additionally, our results suggest the C57BL/6J strain provides a more robust and uniform experimental platform for PCOS research than the BALB/cByJ strain.

Genetic factors modulate the impact of pubertal androgen excess on insulin sensitivity and fertility.

Science.gov (United States)

Dowling, Abigail R; Nedorezov, Laura B; Qiu, Xiaoliang; Marino, Joseph S; Hill, Jennifer W

2013-01-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disorder of reproductive age women. The syndrome is caused by a combination of environmental influences and genetic predisposition. Despite extensive efforts, the heritable factors contributing to PCOS development are not fully understood. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that genetic background contributes to the development of a PCOS-like reproductive and metabolic phenotype in mice exposed to excess DHEA during the pubertal transition. We tested whether the PCOS phenotype would be more pronounced on the diabetes-prone C57BL/6 background than the previously used strain, BALB/cByJ. In addition, we examined strain-dependent upregulation of the expression of ovarian and extra-ovarian candidate genes implicated in human PCOS, genes containing known strain variants, and genes involved with steroidogenesis or insulin sensitivity. These studies show that there are significant strain-related differences in metabolic response to excess androgen exposure during puberty. Additionally, our results suggest the C57BL/6J strain provides a more robust and uniform experimental platform for PCOS research than the BALB/cByJ strain.

Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Blois, Jessica L.; Williams, John W.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Ferrier, Simon

2013-01-01

“Space-for-time” substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption—that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity—rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as “time-for-time” predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.

Improving Gastric Cancer Outcome Prediction Using Single Time-Point Artificial Neural Network Models

Science.gov (United States)

Nilsaz-Dezfouli, Hamid; Abu-Bakar, Mohd Rizam; Arasan, Jayanthi; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin

2017-01-01

In cancer studies, the prediction of cancer outcome based on a set of prognostic variables has been a long-standing topic of interest. Current statistical methods for survival analysis offer the possibility of modelling cancer survivability but require unrealistic assumptions about the survival time distribution or proportionality of hazard. Therefore, attention must be paid in developing nonlinear models with less restrictive assumptions. Artificial neural network (ANN) models are primarily useful in prediction when nonlinear approaches are required to sift through the plethora of available information. The applications of ANN models for prognostic and diagnostic classification in medicine have attracted a lot of interest. The applications of ANN models in modelling the survival of patients with gastric cancer have been discussed in some studies without completely considering the censored data. This study proposes an ANN model for predicting gastric cancer survivability, considering the censored data. Five separate single time-point ANN models were developed to predict the outcome of patients after 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years. The performance of ANN model in predicting the probabilities of death is consistently high for all time points according to the accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. PMID:28469384

Conditional mode regression: Application to functional time series prediction

OpenAIRE

Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Laksaci, Ali

2008-01-01

We consider $\\alpha$-mixing observations and deal with the estimation of the conditional mode of a scalar response variable $Y$ given a random variable $X$ taking values in a semi-metric space. We provide a convergence rate in $L^p$ norm of the estimator. A useful and typical application to functional times series prediction is given.

What Time Is Sunrise? Revisiting the Refraction Component of Sunrise/set Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Teresa; Bartlett, Jennifer L.; Hilton, James Lindsay

2017-01-01

Algorithms that predict sunrise and sunset times currently have an error of one to four minutes at mid-latitudes (0° - 55° N/S) due to limitations in the atmospheric models they incorporate. At higher latitudes, slight changes in refraction can cause significant discrepancies, even including difficulties determining when the Sun appears to rise or set. While different components of refraction are known, how they affect predictions of sunrise/set has not yet been quantified. A better understanding of the contributions from temperature profile, pressure, humidity, and aerosols could significantly improve the standard prediction. We present a sunrise/set calculator that interchanges the refraction component by varying the refraction model. We then compare these predictions with data sets of observed rise/set times to create a better model. Sunrise/set times and meteorological data from multiple locations will be necessary for a thorough investigation of the problem. While there are a few data sets available, we will also begin collecting this data using smartphones as part of a citizen science project. The mobile application for this project will be available in the Google Play store. Data analysis will lead to more complete models that will provide more accurate rise/set times for the benefit of astronomers, navigators, and outdoorsmen everywhere.

Accuracy of the Timed Up and Go test for predicting sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Bruno Prata; Gomes, Isabela Barboza; Oliveira, Carolina Santana de; Ramos, Isis Resende; Rocha, Mônica Diniz Marques; Forgiarini Júnior, Luiz Alberto; Camelier, Fernanda Warken Rosa; Camelier, Aquiles Assunção

2015-05-01

The ability of the Timed Up and Go test to predict sarcopenia has not been evaluated previously. The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the Timed Up and Go test for predicting sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients. This cross-sectional study analyzed 68 elderly patients (≥60 years of age) in a private hospital in the city of Salvador-BA, Brazil, between the 1st and 5th day of hospitalization. The predictive variable was the Timed Up and Go test score, and the outcome of interest was the presence of sarcopenia (reduced muscle mass associated with a reduction in handgrip strength and/or weak physical performance in a 6-m gait-speed test). After the descriptive data analyses, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of a test using the predictive variable to predict the presence of sarcopenia were calculated. In total, 68 elderly individuals, with a mean age 70.4±7.7 years, were evaluated. The subjects had a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 5.35±1.97. Most (64.7%) of the subjects had a clinical admission profile; the main reasons for hospitalization were cardiovascular disorders (22.1%), pneumonia (19.1%) and abdominal disorders (10.2%). The frequency of sarcopenia in the sample was 22.1%, and the mean length of time spent performing the Timed Up and Go test was 10.02±5.38 s. A time longer than or equal to a cutoff of 10.85 s on the Timed Up and Go test predicted sarcopenia with a sensitivity of 67% and a specificity of 88.7%. The accuracy of this cutoff for the Timed Up and Go test was good (0.80; IC=0.66-0.94; p=0.002). The Timed Up and Go test was shown to be a predictor of sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients.

High-Throughput Sequencing Reveals Hypothalamic MicroRNAs as Novel Partners Involved in Timing the Rapid Development of Chicken (Gallus gallus) Gonads.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Wei; Zou, Jianmin; Wang, Kehua; Su, Yijun; Zhu, Yunfen; Song, Chi; Li, Guohui; Qu, Liang; Zhang, Huiyong; Liu, Honglin

2015-01-01

Onset of the rapid gonad growth is a milestone in sexual development that comprises many genes and regulatory factors. The observations in model organisms and mammals including humans have shown a potential link between miRNAs and development timing. To determine whether miRNAs play roles in this process in the chicken (Gallus gallus), the Solexa deep sequencing was performed to analyze the profiles of miRNA expression in the hypothalamus of hens from two different pubertal stages, before onset of the rapid gonad development (BO) and after onset of the rapid gonad development (AO). 374 conserved and 46 novel miRNAs were identified as hypothalamus-expressed miRNAs in the chicken. 144 conserved miRNAs were showed to be differentially expressed (reads > 10, P time quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) method. 2013 putative genes were predicted as the targets of the 15 most differentially expressed miRNAs (fold-change > 4.0, P times by the miRNAs. qRT-PCR revealed the basic transcription levels of these clock genes were much higher (P development of chicken gonads. Considering the characteristics of miRNA functional conservation, the results will contribute to the research on puberty onset in humans.

A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdélyi, Robert

2018-03-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are arguably the most violent eruptions in the solar system. CMEs can cause severe disturbances in interplanetary space and can even affect human activities in many aspects, causing damage to infrastructure and loss of revenue. Fast and accurate prediction of CME arrival time is vital to minimize the disruption that CMEs may cause when interacting with geospace. In this paper, we propose a new approach for partial-/full halo CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms (CAT-PUMA). Via detailed analysis of the CME features and solar-wind parameters, we build a prediction engine taking advantage of 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full halo CMEs and using algorithms of the Support Vector Machine. We demonstrate that CAT-PUMA is accurate and fast. In particular, predictions made after applying CAT-PUMA to a test set unknown to the engine show a mean absolute prediction error of ∼5.9 hr within the CME arrival time, with 54% of the predictions having absolute errors less than 5.9 hr. Comparisons with other models reveal that CAT-PUMA has a more accurate prediction for 77% of the events investigated that can be carried out very quickly, i.e., within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME. A practical guide containing the CAT-PUMA engine and the source code of two examples are available in the Appendix, allowing the community to perform their own applications for prediction using CAT-PUMA.

Towards cycle-accurate performance predictions for real-time embedded systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Triantafyllidis, K.; Bondarev, E.; With, de P.H.N.; Arabnia, H.R.; Deligiannidis, L.; Jandieri, G.

2013-01-01

In this paper we present a model-based performance analysis method for component-based real-time systems, featuring cycle-accurate predictions of latencies and enhanced system robustness. The method incorporates the following phases: (a) instruction-level profiling of SW components, (b) modeling the

Real-time 3-D space numerical shake prediction for earthquake early warning

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Huang, Yandan; Wei, Yongxiang

2017-12-01

In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake prediction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.

NOAA's Strategy to Improve Operational Weather Prediction Outlooks at Subseasonal Time Range

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, T.; Toepfer, F.; Stajner, I.; DeWitt, D.

2017-12-01

NOAA is planning to extend operational global numerical weather prediction to sub-seasonal time range under the auspices of its Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) and Extended Range Outlook Programs. A unification of numerical prediction capabilities for weather and subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales is underway at NOAA using the Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) dynamical core as the basis for the emerging unified system. This presentation will overview NOAA's strategic planning and current activities to improve prediction at S2S time-scales that are ongoing in response to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, Section 201. Over the short-term, NOAA seeks to improve the operational capability through improvements to its ensemble forecast system to extend its range to 30 days using the new FV3 Global Forecast System model, and by using this system to provide reforecast and re-analyses. In parallel, work is ongoing to improve NOAA's operational product suite for 30 day outlooks for temperature, precipitation and extreme weather phenomena.

Comparing an Annual and a Daily Time-Step Model for Predicting Field-Scale Phosphorus Loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolster, Carl H; Forsberg, Adam; Mittelstet, Aaron; Radcliffe, David E; Storm, Daniel; Ramirez-Avila, John; Sharpley, Andrew N; Osmond, Deanna

2017-11-01

A wide range of mathematical models are available for predicting phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural fields, ranging from simple, empirically based annual time-step models to more complex, process-based daily time-step models. In this study, we compare field-scale P-loss predictions between the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE), an empirically based annual time-step model, and the Texas Best Management Practice Evaluation Tool (TBET), a process-based daily time-step model based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. We first compared predictions of field-scale P loss from both models using field and land management data collected from 11 research sites throughout the southern United States. We then compared predictions of P loss from both models with measured P-loss data from these sites. We observed a strong and statistically significant ( loss between the two models; however, APLE predicted, on average, 44% greater dissolved P loss, whereas TBET predicted, on average, 105% greater particulate P loss for the conditions simulated in our study. When we compared model predictions with measured P-loss data, neither model consistently outperformed the other, indicating that more complex models do not necessarily produce better predictions of field-scale P loss. Our results also highlight limitations with both models and the need for continued efforts to improve their accuracy. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Similarity-Based Prediction of Travel Times for Vehicles Traveling on Known Routes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tiesyte, Dalia; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

2008-01-01

, historical data in combination with real-time data may be used to predict the future travel times of vehicles more accurately, thus improving the experience of the users who rely on such information. We propose a Nearest-Neighbor Trajectory (NNT) technique that identifies the historical trajectory......The use of centralized, real-time position tracking is proliferating in the areas of logistics and public transportation. Real-time positions can be used to provide up-to-date information to a variety of users, and they can also be accumulated for uses in subsequent data analyses. In particular...... of vehicles that travel along known routes. In empirical studies with real data from buses, we evaluate how well the proposed distance functions are capable of predicting future vehicle movements. Second, we propose a main-memory index structure that enables incremental similarity search and that is capable...

How Predictable Is the Operative Time of Laparoscopic Surgery for Ovarian Endometrioma?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pietro Gambadauro

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Endometriosis is a tricky albeit common disease whose management largely relies on laparoscopy. We have studied the operative times of laparoscopic endometrioma surgery in order to assess their predictability and possible predictors. One hundred forty-eight laparoscopies were included, with a median operative time of 70 minutes (mean 75.14; 95% CI: 70.03–80.24. Half of the cases had a duration within 15–20 minutes above or below the median (IQR: 55–93.75, but the whole dataset ranged from 20 to 180 minutes, and the standard deviation was relatively large (31.4. Surgical times were significantly related to technical (number and size of the cysts and nontechnical factors (age, parity, dysmenorrhea, and family history. At multiple logistic regression, after adjusting for number and size of the cysts, surgical times below the first quartile were associated with older age (>30 years old: aOR: 3.590; 95% CI: 1.417–9.091 and parity (≥1 delivery: aOR: 3.409; 95% CI: 1.343–8.651. Longer times, above the third quartile, were instead predicted by a familial anamnesis of endometriosis (aOR: 3.639; 95% CI: 1.246–10.627. Our findings indicate highly variable surgical times, which are predicted by unexpected nontechnical factors. This is consistent with the complexity of endometriosis and its treatment. Productivity and efficiency in endometriosis surgery should focus on the quality of healthcare outcomes rather than on the time spent in the operating theatres.

A Seasonal Time-Series Model Based on Gene Expression Programming for Predicting Financial Distress

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

The issue of financial distress prediction plays an important and challenging research topic in the financial field. Currently, there have been many methods for predicting firm bankruptcy and financial crisis, including the artificial intelligence and the traditional statistical methods, and the past studies have shown that the prediction result of the artificial intelligence method is better than the traditional statistical method. Financial statements are quarterly reports; hence, the financial crisis of companies is seasonal time-series data, and the attribute data affecting the financial distress of companies is nonlinear and nonstationary time-series data with fluctuations. Therefore, this study employed the nonlinear attribute selection method to build a nonlinear financial distress prediction model: that is, this paper proposed a novel seasonal time-series gene expression programming model for predicting the financial distress of companies. The proposed model has several advantages including the following: (i) the proposed model is different from the previous models lacking the concept of time series; (ii) the proposed integrated attribute selection method can find the core attributes and reduce high dimensional data; and (iii) the proposed model can generate the rules and mathematical formulas of financial distress for providing references to the investors and decision makers. The result shows that the proposed method is better than the listing classifiers under three criteria; hence, the proposed model has competitive advantages in predicting the financial distress of companies. PMID:29765399