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Sample records for provide additional confidence

  1. Provider confidence in opioid prescribing and chronic pain management: results of the Opioid Therapy Provider Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Amy CS; Moman, Rajat N; Moeschler, Susan M; Eldrige, Jason S; Hooten, W Michael

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Many providers report lack of confidence in managing patients with chronic pain. Thus, the primary aim of this study was to investigate the associations of provider confidence in managing chronic pain with their practice behaviors and demographics. Materials and methods The primary outcome measure was the results of the Opioid Therapy Provider Survey, which was administered to clinicians attending a pain-focused continuing medical education conference. Nonparametric correlations were assessed using Spearman’s rho. Results Of the respondents, 55.0% were women, 92.8% were white, and 56.5% were physicians. Primary care providers accounted for 56.5% of the total respondents. The majority of respondents (60.8%) did not feel confident managing patients with chronic pain. Provider confidence in managing chronic pain was positively correlated with 1) following an opioid therapy protocol (P=0.001), 2) the perceived ability to identify patients at risk for opioid misuse (P=0.006), and 3) using a consistent practice-based approach to improve their comfort level with prescribing opioids (Pcorrelated with the perception that treating pain patients was a “problem in my practice” (P=0.005). Conclusion In this study, the majority of providers did not feel confident managing chronic pain. However, provider confidence was associated with a protocolized and consistent practice-based approach toward managing opioids and the perceived ability to identify patients at risk for opioid misuse. Future studies should investigate whether provider confidence is associated with measurable competence in managing chronic pain and explore approaches to enhance appropriate levels of confidence in caring for patients with chronic pain. PMID:28652805

  2. Supporting Aboriginal Women to Quit Smoking: Antenatal and Postnatal Care Providers' Confidence, Attitudes, and Practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzelepis, Flora; Daly, Justine; Dowe, Sarah; Bourke, Alex; Gillham, Karen; Freund, Megan

    2017-05-01

    Tobacco use during pregnancy is substantially higher among Aboriginal women compared to non-Aboriginal women in Australia. However, no studies have investigated the amount or type of smoking cessation care that staff from Aboriginal antenatal and postnatal services provide to clients who smoke or staff confidence to do so. This study examined Aboriginal antenatal and postnatal staff confidence, perceived role and delivery of smoking cessation care to Aboriginal women and characteristics associated with provision of such care. Staff from 11 Aboriginal Maternal and Infant Health Services and eight Aboriginal Child and Family Health services in the Hunter New England Local Health District in Australia completed a cross-sectional self-reported survey (n = 67, response rate = 97.1%). Most staff reported they assessed clients' smoking status most or all of the time (92.2%). However, only a minority reported they offered a quitline referral (42.2%), provided follow-up support (28.6%) or provided nicotine replacement therapy (4.7%) to most or all clients who smoked. Few staff felt confident in motivating clients to quit smoking (19.7%) and advising clients about using nicotine replacement therapy (15.6%). Staff confident with talking to clients about how smoking affected their health had significantly higher odds of offering a quitline referral [OR = 4.9 (1.7-14.5)] and quitting assistance [OR = 3.9 (1.3-11.6)] to clients who smoke. Antenatal and postnatal staff delivery of smoking cessation care to pregnant Aboriginal women or mothers with young Aboriginal children could be improved. Programs that support Aboriginal antenatal and postnatal providers to deliver smoking cessation care to clients are needed. Aboriginal antenatal and postnatal service staff have multiple opportunities to assist Aboriginal women to quit smoking during pregnancy and postpartum. However, staff confidence and practices of offering various forms of smoking cessation support to pregnant Aboriginal

  3. Generalized additive models and Lucilia sericata growth: assessing confidence intervals and error rates in forensic entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

    2008-07-01

    Forensic entomologists use blow fly development to estimate a postmortem interval. Although accurate, fly age estimates can be imprecise for older developmental stages and no standard means of assigning confidence intervals exists. Presented here is a method for modeling growth of the forensically important blow fly Lucilia sericata, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Eighteen GAMs were created to predict the extent of juvenile fly development, encompassing developmental stage, length, weight, strain, and temperature data, collected from 2559 individuals. All measures were informative, explaining up to 92.6% of the deviance in the data, though strain and temperature exerted negligible influences. Predictions made with an independent data set allowed for a subsequent examination of error. Estimates using length and developmental stage were within 5% of true development percent during the feeding portion of the larval life cycle, while predictions for postfeeding third instars were less precise, but within expected error.

  4. Interprofessional Oral Health Education Improves Knowledge, Confidence, and Practice for Pediatric Healthcare Providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devon Cooper

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Dental caries is the most prevalent chronic childhood disease in the United States. Dental caries affects the health of 60–90% of school-aged children worldwide. The prevalence of untreated early childhood dental caries is 19% for children 2–5 years of age in the U.S. Some factors that contribute to the progression of dental caries include socioeconomic status, access to dental care, and lack of anticipatory guidance. The prevalence of dental caries remains highest for children from specific ethnic or racial groups, especially those living in underserved areas where there may be limited access to a dentist. Although researchers have acknowledged the various links between oral health and overall systemic health, oral health care is not usually a component of pediatric primary health care. To address this public health crisis and oral health disparity in children, new collaborative efforts among health professionals is critical for dental disease prevention and optimal oral health. This evaluation study focused on a 10-week interprofessional practice and education (IPE course on children’s oral health involving dental, osteopathic medical, and nurse practitioner students at the University of California, San Francisco. This study’s objective was to evaluate changes in knowledge, confidence, attitude, and clinical practice in children’s oral health of the students completed the course. Thirty-one students participated in the IPE and completed demographic questionnaires and four questionnaires before and after the IPE course: (1 course content knowledge, (2 confidence, (3 attitudes, and (4 clinical practice. Results showed a statistically significant improvement in the overall knowledge of children’s oral health topics, confidence in their ability to provide oral health services, and clinical practice. There was no statistically significant difference in attitude, but there was an upward trend toward positivity. To conclude, this IPE

  5. Women's empowerment in India: assessment of women's confidence before and after training as a lay provider

    OpenAIRE

    Megan Storm; Alan Xi; Ayesha Khan

    2018-01-01

    Background: Gender is the main social determinant of health in India and affects women's health outcomes even before birth. As women mature into adulthood, lack of education and empowerment increases health inequities, acting as a barrier to seeking medical care and to making medical choices. Although the process of women's empowerment is complex to measure, one indicator is confidence in ability. We sought to increase the confidence of rural Indian women in their abilities by training them a...

  6. A rejection mechanism in 2D bounded confidence provides more conformity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huet, S.; Deffuant, G.; Jager, W.

    This paper explores the dynamics of attitude change in two dimensions resulting from social interaction. We add a rejection mechanism into the 2D bounded confidence (BC) model proposed by Deffuant et al. (2001). Individuals are characterized by two-dimensional continuous attitudes, each associated

  7. Build platform that provides mechanical engagement with additive manufacturing prints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Amelia M.

    2018-03-06

    A build platform and methods of fabricating an article with such a platform in an extrusion-type additive manufacturing machine are provided. A platform body 202 includes features 204 that extend outward from the body 202. The features 204 define protrusive areas 206 and recessive areas 208 that cooperate to mechanically engage the extruded material that forms the initial layers 220 of an article when the article is being fabricated by a nozzle 12 of the additive manufacturing machine 10.

  8. JNC's experience of complementary accesses provided by the additional protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miura, Yasushi

    2001-01-01

    JNC (Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute) examined problems on implementation of the Additional Protocol to Japan/IAEA Safeguards Agreement with the Government of Japan and International Atomic Energy Agency through trials performed at Oarai Engineering Center before it entered into force. On December 16th 1999, the Additional Protocol entered into force, and in last January JNC provided the first JNC site information to STA. Then our Government provided it of all Japan to IAEA in last June. Also in this January, we sent the additional information changed from old one to MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology). The first Complementary Access of not only JNC but also Japan was implemented on JNC Ningyo-Toge Environmental Engineering Center on the end of last November. Since then, we have had over 10 times experience of Complementary Accesses for about one year especially on Tokai works and Ningyo-Toge. JNC's experience of Complementary Accesses will be introduced. (author)

  9. Student-selected components in surgery: providing practical experience and increasing student confidence.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Falk, G A

    2009-09-01

    Reviews of the medical school curriculum in the UK and Ireland have recommended the introduction of student-selected components (SSCs). The Department of Surgery in The Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland (RCSI) has introduced a 6-week surgical SSC, which aims to develop practical clinical skills, provide mentorship and prepare students for internship.

  10. Do prehospital discharge pacemaker checks provide any additional clinical benefit?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheelan, Kevin R; Legge, Darlene M; Sakowski, Brent C; Bruce, Susan S; Roberts, David C; Johnston, L Murphy; Moore, B Jane; Beveridge, Thomas P; Wells, Peter J; Vallabahn, Ravi; Donsky, Michael S; Franklin, Jay O

    2005-08-01

    We performed a retrospective analysis of 250 records of consecutive, newly implanted, pacemaker patients from a single center to determine the rate of postimplant complications and observations discovered before and during the prehospital discharge evaluation. No observations occurred in 246 of 250 patients (98.4%) (1-sided 95% confidence interval 96.4%). Of the 250 patients, 4 had observations that were discovered at the prehospital discharge check and required reprogramming to increase the sensitivity safety margin (3 atrial and 1 ventricular). We documented only 1 complication that was discovered before the predischarge evaluation through telemetry and resulted in an atrial lead revision.

  11. Processing of recognition information and additional cues: A model-based analysis of choice, confidence, and response time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Glockner

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Research on the processing of recognition information has focused on testing the recognition heuristic (RH. On the aggregate, the noncompensatory use of recognition information postulated by the RH was rejected in several studies, while RH could still account for a considerable proportion of choices. These results can be explained if either a a part of the subjects used RH or b nobody used it but its choice predictions were accidentally in line with predictions of the strategy used. In the current study, which exemplifies a new approach to model testing, we determined individuals' decision strategies based on a maximum-likelihood classification method, taking into account choices, response times and confidence ratings simultaneously. Unlike most previous studies of the RH, our study tested the RH under conditions in which we provided information about cue values of unrecognized objects (which we argue is fairly common and thus of some interest. For 77.5% of the subjects, overall behavior was best explained by a compensatory parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS strategy. The proportion of subjects using an enhanced RH heuristic (RHe was negligible (up to 7.5%; 15% of the subjects seemed to use a take the best strategy (TTB. A more-fine grained analysis of the supplemental behavioral parameters conditional on strategy use supports PCS but calls into question process assumptions for apparent users of RH, RHe, and TTB within our experimental context. Our results are consistent with previous literature highlighting the importance of individual strategy classification as compared to aggregated analyses.

  12. Medical students' perceptions regarding the importance of nutritional knowledge and their confidence in providing competent nutrition practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlstein, R; McCoombe, S; Shaw, C; Nowson, C

    2016-11-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the perceived importance, knowledge and confidence in nutritional management in a sample of Australian medical students undertaking a 4-year postgraduate medical degree. In 2015, students in years 1-4 were anonymously surveyed to assess students' perceived importance of nutrition, and knowledge and confidence in nutritional management. A total of 131 first and second year (preclinical/yr 1-2) medical students (46% response rate) and 66 third and fourth year (clinical/yr 3-4) students (24% response rate) completed the questionnaire. Most preclinical students agreed that medical graduates should understand nutritional issues in managing cardiovascular disease (99%), type 2 diabetes (93%), coeliac disease (95%), and renal impairment (97%). However, students were limited in their confidence to demonstrate this knowledge (range of confidence: 26%-41%) for individual medical conditions. This improved for students in the clinical context of years 3 and 4, although it was still not optimal (range 26%-81%). Few year 3 and 4 students reported confidence in knowledge related to medicolegal issues, respiratory disease, nutritional guidelines and nutrition assessment (all 80%) reported confidence in the dietary management of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and coeliac disease and >60% indicated they would refer onto nutrition professionals. This cohort of postgraduate medical students recognize the importance of nutrition in disease. The number of students reporting increased confidence in nutritional management of a few select diseases where dietary management is one of the cornerstones of treatment (e.g. type 2 diabetes) rises throughout the course. However, students reported lower levels of knowledge in diseases where diet is secondary to other treatments and preventative strategies (e.g. respiratory disease). Filling the gap by integrating the nutritional management into the range of common chronic diseases during training

  13. Biliary complications following orthotopic liver transplantation: May contrast-enhanced MR Cholangiography provide additional information?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piero Boraschi

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: Contrast-enhanced T1-weighted MR Cholangiography may improve the level of diagnostic confidence provided by conventional T2-weighted MR Cholangiography in the evaluation of biliary complications after orthotopic liver transplantation.

  14. The importance of hot drought in providing more useful, and higher confidence, projections of future climatic, hydrologic, and ecosystem impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B. H.

    2017-12-01

    Often cited as a general guide to future climatic change, "the wet get wetter, and the dry get drier" is a misleading way to look towards the future for many regions of the globe, just as the simple use of multi-model ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation change averaged over many years can also be quite misleading for real-world planning and decision-making. Factors that support these assertions are multi-fold. First, we know with high confidence that warming will continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue. Second, continued warming will act to make droughts more frequent, longer and more severe in many regions. Even in the absence of precipitation declines, increases in evaporation and evapotranspiration, among other things, will drive regional drying. It is misleading to suggest to decision-makers that although the future may see an increase in drought risk, a projected increase in mean precipitation will counter-balance the increased drought risk. This counter-balancing will be absent during periods of precipitation-dominated drought. Moreover, projections of precipitation change are usually associated with much less confidence than projections of warming. For example, in places like the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers, or East Africa, many models suggest we should be seeing an increase in precipitation, when in fact we are only seeing significant warming. Moreover, paleoclimatic evidence suggests that state-of-the-art Earth System Models may underestimate the risk of future multi-decadal droughts, even though these droughts have occurred in many regions during the last 2000 years. This reality suggests that even in regions that do see modest increases in mean precipitation, there will likely be periods in the future characterized by decades of below 20th century mean precipitation coupled with unprecedented warmth. Hot drought may be a much more widespread and serious threat than widely recognized.

  15. Doctors' attitudes and confidence towards providing nutrition care in practice: Comparison of New Zealand medical students, general practice registrars and general practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, Jennifer; Ball, Lauren; Han, Dug Yeo; McGill, Anne-Thea; Arroll, Bruce; Leveritt, Michael; Wall, Clare

    2015-09-01

    Improvements in individuals' nutrition behaviour can improve risk factors and outcomes associated with lifestyle-related chronic diseases. This study describes and compares New Zealand medical students, general practice registrars and general practitioners' (GPs') attitudes towards incorporating nutrition care into practice, and self-perceived skills in providing nutrition care. A total of 183 New Zealand medical students, 51 general practice registrars and 57 GPs completed a 60-item questionnaire investigating attitudes towards incorporating nutrition care into practice and self-perceived skills in providing nutrition care. Items were scored using a 5-point Likert scale. Factor analysis was conducted to group questionnaire items and a generalised linear model compared differences between medical students, general practice registrars and GPs. All groups indicated that incorporating nutrition care into practice is important. GPs displayed more positive attitudes than students towards incorporating nutrition in routine care (ppractice registrars were more positive than students towards performing nutrition recommendations (p=0.004), specified practices (p=0.037), and eliciting behaviour change (p=0.024). All groups displayed moderate confidence towards providing nutrition care. GPs were more confident than students in areas relating to wellness and disease (pmedical students, general practice registrars and GPs have positive attitudes and moderate confidence towards incorporating nutrition care into practice. It is possible that GPs' experience providing nutrition care contributes to greater confidence. Strategies to facilitate medical students developing confidence in providing nutrition care are warranted.

  16. Online Training in Specific Meditation Practices Improves Gratitude, Well-Being, Self-Compassion, and Confidence in Providing Compassionate Care Among Health Professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Nisha; Kemper, Kathi J

    2016-04-06

    Mind-body practices that intentionally generate positive emotion could improve health professionals' well-being and compassion. However, the feasibility and impact of clinician training in these practices is unknown. Data were analyzed from 3 online modules offered to health professionals: (a) Gratitude, (b) Positive Word, and (c) Loving-kindness/Compassion meditation. Pairedttests were used to assess pre- to posttraining changes in gratitude (Gratitude Questionnaire), well-being (World Health Organization Well-Being Index), self-compassion (Neff's Self-Compassion Scale), and confidence in providing compassionate care (Confidence in Providing Calm, Compassionate Care Scale). The 177 enrollees included diverse practitioners (nurses, physicians, social workers, and others). Training was associated with statistically significant improvements in gratitude (38.3 ± 4.6 to 39.5 ± 3.3), well-being (16.4 ± 4.0 to 17.9 ± 4.2), self-compassion (39.5 ± 8.1 to 43.1 ± 7.6), and confidence in providing compassionate care (73.3 ± 16.4 to 80.9 ± 13.8;Pgratitude, well-being, self-compassion, and confidence in providing compassionate care. © The Author(s) 2016.

  17. High confidence proteomic analysis of yeast LDs identifies additional droplet proteins and reveals connections to dolichol synthesis and sterol acetylation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Erin; Guo, Xiuling; Christiano, Romain; Chitraju, Chandramohan; Kory, Nora; Harrison, Kenneth; Haas, Joel; Walther, Tobias C; Farese, Robert V

    2014-07-01

    Accurate protein inventories are essential for understanding an organelle's functions. The lipid droplet (LD) is a ubiquitous intracellular organelle with major functions in lipid storage and metabolism. LDs differ from other organelles because they are bounded by a surface monolayer, presenting unique features for protein targeting to LDs. Many proteins of varied functions have been found in purified LD fractions by proteomics. While these studies have become increasingly sensitive, it is often unclear which of the identified proteins are specific to LDs. Here we used protein correlation profiling to identify 35 proteins that specifically enrich with LD fractions of Saccharomyces cerevisiae Of these candidates, 30 fluorophore-tagged proteins localize to LDs by microscopy, including six proteins, several with human orthologs linked to diseases, which we newly identify as LD proteins (Cab5, Rer2, Say1, Tsc10, YKL047W, and YPR147C). Two of these proteins, Say1, a sterol deacetylase, and Rer2, a cis-isoprenyl transferase, are enzymes involved in sterol and polyprenol metabolism, respectively, and we show their activities are present in LD fractions. Our results provide a highly specific list of yeast LD proteins and reveal that the vast majority of these proteins are involved in lipid metabolism. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  18. Using the confidence interval confidently.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Avijit

    2017-10-01

    Biomedical research is seldom done with entire populations but rather with samples drawn from a population. Although we work with samples, our goal is to describe and draw inferences regarding the underlying population. It is possible to use a sample statistic and estimates of error in the sample to get a fair idea of the population parameter, not as a single value, but as a range of values. This range is the confidence interval (CI) which is estimated on the basis of a desired confidence level. Calculation of the CI of a sample statistic takes the general form: CI = Point estimate ± Margin of error, where the margin of error is given by the product of a critical value (z) derived from the standard normal curve and the standard error of point estimate. Calculation of the standard error varies depending on whether the sample statistic of interest is a mean, proportion, odds ratio (OR), and so on. The factors affecting the width of the CI include the desired confidence level, the sample size and the variability in the sample. Although the 95% CI is most often used in biomedical research, a CI can be calculated for any level of confidence. A 99% CI will be wider than 95% CI for the same sample. Conflict between clinical importance and statistical significance is an important issue in biomedical research. Clinical importance is best inferred by looking at the effect size, that is how much is the actual change or difference. However, statistical significance in terms of P only suggests whether there is any difference in probability terms. Use of the CI supplements the P value by providing an estimate of actual clinical effect. Of late, clinical trials are being designed specifically as superiority, non-inferiority or equivalence studies. The conclusions from these alternative trial designs are based on CI values rather than the P value from intergroup comparison.

  19. Impact of High-Fidelity Simulation and Pharmacist-Specific Didactic Lectures in Addition to ACLS Provider Certification on Pharmacy Resident ACLS Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartel, Billie J

    2014-08-01

    This pilot study explored the use of multidisciplinary high-fidelity simulation and additional pharmacist-focused training methods in training postgraduate year 1 (PGY1) pharmacy residents to provide Advanced Cardiovascular Life Support (ACLS) care. Pharmacy resident confidence and comfort level were assessed after completing these training requirements. The ACLS training requirements for pharmacy residents were revised to include didactic instruction on ACLS pharmacology and rhythm recognition and participation in multidisciplinary high-fidelity simulation ACLS experiences in addition to ACLS provider certification. Surveys were administered to participating residents to assess the impact of this additional education on resident confidence and comfort level in cardiopulmonary arrest situations. The new ACLS didactic and simulation training requirements resulted in increased resident confidence and comfort level in all assessed functions. Residents felt more confident in all areas except providing recommendations for dosing and administration of medications and rhythm recognition after completing the simulation scenarios than with ACLS certification training and the didactic components alone. All residents felt the addition of lectures and simulation experiences better prepared them to function as a pharmacist in the ACLS team. Additional ACLS training requirements for pharmacy residents increased overall awareness of pharmacist roles and responsibilities and greatly improved resident confidence and comfort level in performing most essential pharmacist functions during ACLS situations. © The Author(s) 2013.

  20. Survey mode matters: adults' self-reported statistical confidence, ability to obtain health information, and perceptions of patient-health-care provider communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Lorraine S; Chisolm, Deena J; Abdel-Rasoul, Mahmoud; DeVoe, Jennifer E

    2013-08-01

    This study examined adults' self-reported understanding and formatting preferences of medical statistics, confidence in self-care and ability to obtain health advice or information, and perceptions of patient-health-care provider communication measured through dual survey modes (random digital dial and mail). Even while controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, significant differences in regard to adults' responses to survey variables emerged as a function of survey mode. While the analyses do not allow us to pinpoint the underlying causes of the differences observed, they do suggest that mode of administration should be carefully adjusted for and considered.

  1. Improving knowledge, technical skills, and confidence among pediatric health care providers in the management of chronic tracheostomy using a simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Amit; Marks, Nancy; Wessel, Valerie; Willis, Denise; Bai, Shasha; Tang, Xinyu; Ward, Wendy L; Schellhase, Dennis E; Carroll, John L

    2016-07-01

    The results from a recent national survey about catastrophic complications following tracheostomy revealed that the majority of events involved a loss of airway. Most of the events due to airway loss involved potentially correctable deficits in caregiver education. Training in a simulated environment allows skill acquisition without compromising patient safety. We assessed the knowledge and confidence level of pediatric health care providers at a large tertiary care children's hospital in routine and emergency tracheostomy care and evaluated the efficacy of a comprehensive simulation-based tracheostomy educational program. The prospective observational study was comprised of 33 subjects including pediatric residents, internal medicine-pediatric residents, pediatric hospitalist faculty physicians, and advanced practice registered nurses who are involved in the care of patients with tracheostomies within a tertiary-care children's hospital. The subjects completed self-assessment questionnaires and objective multiple-choice tests before and after attending a comprehensive educational course that employed patient simulation. The outcome measurements included pre- and post-course questionnaires, pre- and post-course test scores, and observational data from the simulation sessions. Before the education and simulation, the subjects' comfort and confidence levels on a five-point Likert scale in performing routine tracheostomy tube care, routine tracheostomy tube change, and an emergency tracheostomy tube change were as follows (median (Q1, Q3)): 1 (1, 2), 1 (1, 2), and 1 (1, 2), respectively (n = 28). The levels of comfort and confidence after completing the course improved significantly to 4 (4, 5), 4 (4, 5), 4 (4, 5), respectively (P tracheostomy tubes (e.g., cuffed versus uncuffed), physiological significance of the cuff, mechanism of action and physiological significance of the speaking valve, and the importance of the obturator in changing the tracheostomy tube

  2. Integrating a Career Planning and Development Program into the Baccalaureate Nursing Curriculum: Part III. Impact on Faculty's Career Satisfaction and Confidence in Providing Student Career Coaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waddell, Janice; Spalding, Karen; Navarro, Justine; Gaitana, Gianina

    2015-11-25

    As career satisfaction has been identified as a predictor of retention of nurses across all sectors, it is important that career satisfaction of both new and experienced nursing faculty is recognized in academic settings. A study of a curriculum-based career planning and development (CPD) program was conducted to determine the program's effects on participating students, new graduate nurses, and faculty. This third in a series of three papers reports on how the CPD intervention affected faculty participants' sense of career satisfaction and confidence in their role as career educators and coaches. Faculty who participated in the intervention CPD intervention group reported an increase in confidence in their ability to provide career coaching and education to students. They further indicated that their own career development served to enhance career satisfaction; an outcome identified as a predictor of faculty career satisfaction. Study results suggest that interventions such as the one described in this paper can have a potentially positive impact in other settings as well.

  3. A study for providing additional storage spaces to ET-RR-1 spent fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Kady, A.; Ashoub, N.; Saleh, H.G.

    1995-01-01

    The ET-RR-1 reactor spent fuel storage pool is a trapezoidal aluminum tank concrete shield and of capacity 10 m 3 . It can hold up to 60 fuel assemblies. The long operation history of the ET-RR-1 reactor resulted in a partially filled spent fuel storage with the remaining spaces not enough to host a complete load from the reactor. This work have been initiated to evaluate possible alternative solutions for providing additional storage spaces to host the available EK-10 fuel elements after irradiation and any foreseen fuel in case of reactor upgrading. Several alternate solutions have been reviewed and decision on the most suitable one is under study. These studies include criticality calculation of some suggested alternatives like reracking the present spent fuel storage pool and double tiering by the addition of a second level storage rack above the existing rack. The two levels may have different factor. Criticality calculation of the double tiering possible accident was also studied. (author)

  4. An Initiative to Standardize the Identification of and Acute Response to Postoperative Lower-Extremity Neurological Deficits: Effects on Provider Knowledge, Confidence, and Communication Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derman, Peter B; Iyer, Sravisht; Garner, Matthew; Orr, Steven; Felix, Karla J; Goldberg, Allison; Ologhobo, Titilayo; Wu, Minlun; Robbins, Laura; Cornell, Charles

    2016-12-07

    Although relatively uncommon, neurological deficits following hip and knee arthroplasty can have permanent and debilitating consequences. This study was conducted to quantify the effectiveness of an educational curriculum aimed at standardizing the identification of and acute response to postoperative neurological deficits in the inpatient setting, specifically with respect to improvements in clinician knowledge, confidence levels, and communication skills. A multidisciplinary committee at a single, high-volume academic institution created an algorithm delineating the appropriate clinical actions and escalation procedures in the setting of a postoperative neurological deficit for each clinical practitioner involved in care for patients who undergo arthroplasty. An educational curriculum composed of online learning modules and an in-person "boot camp" featuring simulations with standardized patients was developed, along with assessments of clinician knowledge, confidence levels, and communication skills. Nurses, physical therapists, physician assistants, residents, fellows, and attending surgeons were encouraged to participate. The intervention spanned a 5-month period in 2015 with a mean time of 18.4 weeks between baseline assessments and the time of the latest follow-up. Online modules were completed by 322 individuals, boot camp was completed by 70 individuals, and latest assessments were completed by 38 individuals. The percentage correct on the knowledge assessment increased from 74.5% before the learning modules to 89.5% immediately after (p communication skills assessment showed a significant mean increase (p = 0.02) over the course of the intervention from 30.32 to 32.50, and the mean self-assessed confidence survey scores increased by 16.7%, from 7.2 to 8.4 (p confidence and communication skills appear to be more long-lasting.

  5. Expert panel on additional cross subsidisation. Considering arguments and providing expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faber, J.; Nelissen, D.; Lowe, S.; Mason, A.

    2007-10-01

    In the period end 2005 till September 2006 MVA London in cooperation with SEO Amsterdam was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Transport to perform an analysis of the economic and competition effects of the different proposals from the European Commission to include aviation in the European Emission Trading System (ETS). Roughly at the same time CE Delft was commissioned to study the overall impacts of this inclusion for the European Commission. Both studies considered the possibility that inclusion of aviation in the ETS could lead to the distortion of competition between airlines through cross-subsidisation. The studies concluded differently on additional possibilities for cross-subsidisation. As a result, both parties have different views on the possible distortion of the competitive market on routes where EU-based carriers compete directly with carriers based outside the EU. CE Delft concluded that 'none of the policy options considered in this study will significantly damage the competitive position of EU airlines relative to non-EU airlines'. In contrast, MVA and SEO (2006) concluded that 'effective cross-subsidisation by non-EU carriers in the Departing EU scope of the ETS appears to be more probable than cross-subsidisation by EU network carriers in the Intra-EU scope of the ETS'. In July 2007, the Dutch Ministry of Transport, DGTL commissioned CE Delft, MVA and SEO to study the causes for their different opinions and to see whether a further investigation could shed more light on the likelihood of additional cross-subsidisation. Formally, the aim of the work currently carried out is: (1) To determine whether it is possible to assess the impacts on the competitive market between EU based carriers and non-EU based carriers based on sound economic reasoning and analysis of empirical data; and, if so, (2) to determine whether the inclusion of aviation in ETS as proposed by the European Commission will offer non-EU airlines the opportunity to increase their

  6. Carvacrol, a food-additive, provides neuroprotection on focal cerebral ischemia/reperfusion injury in mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hailong Yu

    Full Text Available Carvacrol (CAR, a naturally occurring monoterpenic phenol and food additive, has been shown to have antimicrobials, antitumor, and antidepressant-like activities. A previous study demonstrated that CAR has the ability to protect liver against ischemia/reperfusion injury in rats. In this study, we investigated the protective effects of CAR on cerebral ischemia/reperfusion injury in a middle cerebral artery occlusion mouse model. We found that CAR (50 mg/kg significantly reduced infarct volume and improved neurological deficits after 75 min of ischemia and 24 h of reperfusion. This neuroprotection was in a dose-dependent manner. Post-treatment with CAR still provided protection on infarct volume when it was administered intraperitoneally at 2 h after reperfusion; however, intracerebroventricular post-treatment reduced infarct volume even when the mice were treated with CAR at 6 h after reperfusion. These findings indicated that CAR has an extended therapeutic window, but delivery strategies may affect the protective effects of CAR. Further, we found that CAR significantly decreased the level of cleaved caspase-3, a marker of apoptosis, suggesting the anti-apoptotic activity of CAR. Finally, our data indicated that CAR treatment increased the level of phosphorylated Akt and the neuroprotection of CAR was reversed by a PI3K inhibitor LY-294002, demonstrating the involvement of the PI3K/Akt pathway in the anti-apoptotic mechanisms of CAR. Due to its safety and wide use in the food industry, CAR is a promising agent to be translated into clinical trials.

  7. Adiponectin provides additional information to conventional cardiovascular risk factors for assessing the risk of atherosclerosis in both genders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Ha Yoon

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the relation between adiponectin and atherosclerosis in both genders, and investigated whether adiponectin provides useful additional information for assessing the risk of atherosclerosis. METHODS: We measured serum adiponectin levels and other cardiovascular risk factors in 1033 subjects (454 men, 579 women from the Korean Genomic Rural Cohort study. Carotid intima-media-thickness (CIMT was used as measure of atherosclerosis. Odds ratios (ORs with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI were calculated using multiple logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC, the category-free net reclassification improvement (NRI and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI were calculated. RESULTS: After adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors, such as age, waist circumference, smoking history, low-density and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure and insulin resistance, the ORs (95%CI of the third tertile adiponectin group were 0.42 (0.25-0.72 in men and 0.47 (0.29-0.75 in women. The area under the curve (AUC on the ROC analysis increased significantly by 0.025 in men and 0.022 in women when adiponectin was added to the logistic model of conventional cardiovascular risk factors (AUC in men: 0.655 to 0.680, p = 0.038; AUC in women: 0.654 to 0.676, p = 0.041. The NRI was 0.32 (95%CI: 0.13-0.50, p<0.001, and the IDI was 0.03 (95%CI: 0.01-0.04, p<0.001 for men. For women, the category-free NRI was 0.18 (95%CI: 0.02-0.34, p = 0.031 and the IDI was 0.003 (95%CI: -0.002-0.008, p = 0.189. CONCLUSION: Adiponectin and atherosclerosis were significantly related in both genders, and these relationships were independent of conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Furthermore, adiponectin provided additional information to conventional cardiovascular risk factors regarding the risk of atherosclerosis.

  8. Prey-predator dynamics with prey refuge providing additional food to predator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Joydev; Sahoo, Banshidhar; Poria, Swarup

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • The effects of interplay between prey refugia and additional food are reported. • Hopf bifurcation conditions are derived analytically. • Existence of unique limit cycle is shown analytically. • Predator extinction may be possible at very high prey refuge ecological systems. - Abstract: The impacts of additional food for predator on the dynamics of a prey-predator model with prey refuge are investigated. The equilibrium points and their stability behaviours are determined. Hopf bifurcation conditions are derived analytically. Most significantly, existence conditions for unique stable limit cycle in the phase plane are shown analytically. The analytical results are in well agreement with the numerical simulation results. Effects of variation of refuge level as well as the variation of quality and quantity of additional food on the dynamics are reported with the help of bifurcation diagrams. It is found that high quality and high quantity of additional food supports oscillatory coexistence of species. It is observed that predator extinction possibility in high prey refuge ecological systems may be removed by supplying additional food to predator population. The reported theoretical results may be useful to conservation biologist for species conservation in real world ecological systems.

  9. Decision support system of e-book provider selection for library using Simple Additive Weighting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciptayani, P. I.; Dewi, K. C.

    2018-01-01

    Each library has its own criteria and differences in the importance of each criterion in choosing an e-book provider for them. The large number of providers and the different importance levels of each criterion make the problem of determining the e-book provider to be complex and take a considerable time in decision making. The aim of this study was to implement Decision support system (DSS) to assist the library in selecting the best e-book provider based on their preferences. The way of DSS works is by comparing the importance of each criterion and the condition of each alternative decision. SAW is one of DSS method that is quite simple, fast and widely used. This study used 9 criteria and 18 provider to demonstrate how SAW work in this study. With the DSS, then the decision-making time can be shortened and the calculation results can be more accurate than manual calculations.

  10. Differential activation of an identified motor neuron and neuromodulation provide Aplysia's retractor muscle an additional function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McManus, Jeffrey M; Lu, Hui; Cullins, Miranda J; Chiel, Hillel J

    2014-08-15

    To survive, animals must use the same peripheral structures to perform a variety of tasks. How does a nervous system employ one muscle to perform multiple functions? We addressed this question through work on the I3 jaw muscle of the marine mollusk Aplysia californica's feeding system. This muscle mediates retraction of Aplysia's food grasper in multiple feeding responses and is innervated by a pool of identified neurons that activate different muscle regions. One I3 motor neuron, B38, is active in the protraction phase, rather than the retraction phase, suggesting the muscle has an additional function. We used intracellular, extracellular, and muscle force recordings in several in vitro preparations as well as recordings of nerve and muscle activity from intact, behaving animals to characterize B38's activation of the muscle and its activity in different behavior types. We show that B38 specifically activates the anterior region of I3 and is specifically recruited during one behavior, swallowing. The function of this protraction-phase jaw muscle contraction is to hold food; thus the I3 muscle has an additional function beyond mediating retraction. We additionally show that B38's typical activity during in vivo swallowing is insufficient to generate force in an unmodulated muscle and that intrinsic and extrinsic modulation shift the force-frequency relationship to allow contraction. Using methods that traverse levels from individual neuron to muscle to intact animal, we show how regional muscle activation, differential motor neuron recruitment, and neuromodulation are key components in Aplysia's generation of multifunctionality. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

  11. 42 CFR 424.516 - Additional provider and supplier requirements for enrolling and maintaining active enrollment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... on the type of services or supplies the provider or supplier type will furnish and bill Medicare. (3... the HHS Common Rule at 45 CFR part 76. (b) Reporting requirements Independent Diagnostic Testing... documentation includes written and electronic documents (including the NPI of the physician who ordered the home...

  12. A genomic island provides Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans ATCC 53993 additional copper resistance: a possible competitive advantage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orellana, Luis H; Jerez, Carlos A

    2011-11-01

    There is great interest in understanding how extremophilic biomining bacteria adapt to exceptionally high copper concentrations in their environment. Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans ATCC 53993 genome possesses the same copper resistance determinants as strain ATCC 23270. However, the former strain contains in its genome a 160-kb genomic island (GI), which is absent in ATCC 23270. This GI contains, amongst other genes, several genes coding for an additional putative copper ATPase and a Cus system. A. ferrooxidans ATCC 53993 showed a much higher resistance to CuSO(4) (>100 mM) than that of strain ATCC 23270 (<25 mM). When a similar number of bacteria from each strain were mixed and allowed to grow in the absence of copper, their respective final numbers remained approximately equal. However, in the presence of copper, there was a clear overgrowth of strain ATCC 53993 compared to ATCC 23270. This behavior is most likely explained by the presence of the additional copper-resistance genes in the GI of strain ATCC 53993. As determined by qRT-PCR, it was demonstrated that these genes are upregulated when A. ferrooxidans ATCC 53993 is grown in the presence of copper and were shown to be functional when expressed in copper-sensitive Escherichia coli mutants. Thus, the reason for resistance to copper of two strains of the same acidophilic microorganism could be determined by slight differences in their genomes, which may not only lead to changes in their capacities to adapt to their environment, but may also help to select the more fit microorganisms for industrial biomining operations. © Springer-Verlag 2011

  13. Computerized analysis of isometric tension studies provides important additional information about vasomotor activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent M.B.

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Concentration-response curves of isometric tension studies on isolated blood vessels are obtained traditionally. Although parameters such as Imax, EC50 and pA2 may be readily calculated, this method does not provide information on the temporal profile of the responses or the actual nature of the reaction curves. Computerized data acquisition systems can be used to obtain average data that represent a new source of otherwise inaccessible information, since early and late responses may be observed separately in detail

  14. 34 CFR 645.13 - What additional services do Upward Bound Math and Science Centers provide and how are they...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What additional services do Upward Bound Math and... Program? § 645.13 What additional services do Upward Bound Math and Science Centers provide and how are... provided under § 645.11(b), an Upward Bound Math and Science Center must provide— (1) Intensive instruction...

  15. A systematic review of maternal confidence for physiologic birth: characteristics of prenatal care and confidence measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery, Melissa D; Saftner, Melissa A; Larson, Bridget; Weinfurter, Elizabeth V

    2014-01-01

    Because a focus on physiologic labor and birth has reemerged in recent years, care providers have the opportunity in the prenatal period to help women increase confidence in their ability to give birth without unnecessary interventions. However, most research has only examined support for women during labor. The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the research literature for information about prenatal care approaches that increase women's confidence for physiologic labor and birth and tools to measure that confidence. Studies were reviewed that explored any element of a pregnant woman's interaction with her prenatal care provider that helped build confidence in her ability to labor and give birth. Timing of interaction with pregnant women included during pregnancy, labor and birth, and the postpartum period. In addition, we looked for studies that developed a measure of women's confidence related to labor and birth. Outcome measures included confidence or similar concepts, descriptions of components of prenatal care contributing to maternal confidence for birth, and reliability and validity of tools measuring confidence. The search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases provided a total of 893 citations. After removing duplicates and articles that did not meet inclusion criteria, 6 articles were included in the review. Three relate to women's confidence for labor during the prenatal period, and 3 describe tools to measure women's confidence for birth. Research about enhancing women's confidence for labor and birth was limited to qualitative studies. Results suggest that women desire information during pregnancy and want to use that information to participate in care decisions in a relationship with a trusted provider. Further research is needed to develop interventions to help midwives and physicians enhance women's confidence in their ability to give birth and to develop a tool to measure confidence for use during prenatal care. © 2014 by

  16. Network Physics - the only company to provide physics-based network management - secures additional funding and new executives

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    "Network Physics, the only provider of physics-based network management products, today announced an additional venture round of $6 million in funding, as well as the addition of David Jones as president and CEO and Tom Dunn as vice president of sales and business development" (1 page).

  17. The idiosyncratic nature of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

    2017-11-01

    Confidence is the 'feeling of knowing' that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence.

  18. Metal-mediated aminocatalysis provides mild conditions: Enantioselective Michael addition mediated by primary amino catalysts and alkali-metal ions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Leven

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Four catalysts based on new amides of chiral 1,2-diamines and 2-sulfobenzoic acid have been developed. The alkali-metal salts of these betaine-like amides are able to form imines with enones, which are activated by Lewis acid interaction for nucleophilic attack by 4-hydroxycoumarin. The addition of 4-hydroxycoumarin to enones gives ee’s up to 83% and almost quantitative yields in many cases. This novel type of catalysis provides an effective alternative to conventional primary amino catalysis were strong acid additives are essential components.

  19. Confidant Relations in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Isaacs

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

  20. Perfusion magnetic resonance imaging provides additional information as compared to anatomical imaging for decision-making in vestibular schwannoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kleijwegt, M.C.; Mey, A.G.L. van der; Wiggers-deBruine, F.T.; Malessy, M.J.A; Osch, M.J.P. van

    2016-01-01

    •DSC/ASL-MRI can be acquired in growing VS with sufficient image quality.•In most patients DSC and ASL techniques provide similar qualitative scores.•These techniques can be of importance in future decision-making. DSC/ASL-MRI can be acquired in growing VS with sufficient image quality. In most patients DSC and ASL techniques provide similar qualitative scores. These techniques can be of importance in future decision-making. The added value of perfusion MRI for decision-making in vestibular schwannoma (VS) patients is unknown. MRI offers two perfusion methods: the first employing contrast agent (dynamic susceptibility contrast (DSC)-MRI) that provides information on cerebral blood volume (CBV) and cerebral blood flow (CBF), the second by magnetic labeling of blood (arterial spin labeling (ASL)-MRI), providing CBF-images. The goal of the current study is to investigate whether DSC and ASL perfusion MRI provides complimentary information to current anatomical imaging in treatment selection process of VS. Nine patients with growing VS with extrameatal diameter >9 mm were included (>2 mm/year and 20% volume expansion/year) and one patient with 23 mm extrameatal VS without growth. DSC and ASL perfusion MRI were obtained on 3 T MRI. Perfusion in VS was scored as hyperintense, hypointense or isointense compared to the contralateral region. Seven patients showed hyperintense signal on DSC and ASL sequences. Three patients showed iso- or hypointense signal on at least one perfusion map (1 patient hypointense on both DSC-MRI and ASL; 1 patient isointense on DSC-CBF; 1 patient isointense on ASL). All patients showed enhancement on post-contrast T1 anatomical scan. Perfusion MR provides additional information compared to anatomical imaging for decision-making in VS

  1. Hepatitis B virus vaccination booster does not provide additional protection in adolescents: a cross-sectional school-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yung-Chieh; Wang, Jen-Hung; Chen, Yu-Sheng; Lin, Jun-Song; Cheng, Ching-Feng; Chu, Chia-Hsiang

    2014-09-23

    Current consensus does not support the use of a universal booster of hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccine because there is an anamnestic response in almost all children 15 years after universal infant HBV vaccination. We aimed to provide a booster strategy among adolescents as a result of their changes in lifestyle and sexual activity. This study comprised a series of cross-sectional serological surveys of HBV markers in four age groups between 2004 and 2012. The seropositivity rates of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and its reciprocal antibody (anti-HBs) for each age group were collected. There were two parts to this study; age-specific HBV seroepidemiology and subgroup analysis, including effects of different vaccine types, booster response for immunogenicity at 15 years of age, and longitudinal follow-up to identify possible additional protection by HBV booster. Within the study period, data on serum anti-HBs and HBsAg in a total of 6950 students from four age groups were collected. The overall anti-HBs and HBsAg seropositivity rates were 44.3% and 1.2%, respectively. The anti-HBs seropositivity rate in the plasma-derived subgroup was significantly higher in both 15- and 18-year age groups. Overall response rate in the double-seronegative recipients at 15 years of age was 92.5% at 6 weeks following one recombinant HBV booster dose. Among the 24 recipients showing anti-HBs seroconversion at 6 weeks after booster, seven subjects (29.2%) had lost their anti-HBs seropositivity again within 3 years. Increased seropositivity rates and titers of anti-HBs did not provide additional protective effects among subjects comprehensively vaccinated against HBV in infancy. HBV booster strategy at 15 years of age was the main contributor to the unique age-related phenomenon of anti-HBs seropositivity rate and titer. No increase in HBsAg seropositivity rates within different age groups was observed. Vaccination with plasma-derived HBV vaccines in infancy provided higher

  2. Dose Tc-99m MIBI scintimammography provide more information additive to contrast enhanced MRI in highly suspected breast cancer patients?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seong Jang; Kim, In Ju; Kim, Yong Ki; Bae, Young Tae

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether Tc-99m MIBI scintimammography (SMM) provide more information than contrast enhanced MRI in highly suspected breast cancer patients. This study included 32 breast lesions of 29 highly suspected patients having breast cancer. All patients were performed SMM and contrast enhanced MRI. The SMMs and contrast enhanced MRI were correlated with histopathologic results. Thirty breast lesions were diagnosed malignant diseases and 2 were diagnosed benign diseases. SMM showed 29 true positives (TP), 1 true negative (TN), 1 false positive (FP), and 1 false negative (FN). The sensitivity was 96.6%. Contrast enhanced MRI revealed 24 TP, 0 TN, 1 FP, 3 FN and 4 indeterminate cases. The sensitivity was 88.8%. In the assessment of axillary lymph node metastasis, SMM showed 9 TP, 10 TN, 0 FP, and 3 FN. The sensitivity and specificity were 75% and 100%. Contrast enhanced MRI revealed 6 TP, 9 TN, 1 FP, and 6 FN. The sensitivity and specificity were 50% and 90%. Among 4 indeterminate cases with MRI findings, SMM correctly diagnosed malignant breast diseases in 3 lesions. However, SMM showed false positive in 1 lesion. SMM could correctly diagnosed malignant breast diseases more 5 lesions than contrast enhanced MRI. SMM revealed higher sensitivity in detection of primary breast cancer and axillary LN metastasis than contrast enhanced MRI. SMMs could correctly diagnosed malignant breast diseases even if the MRI showed indeterminate findings. In highly suspected patients having breast cancer, SMM may provide additive information in detection of breast cancer if contrast enhanced MRI showed indeterminate findings but this is to be determined later by large population based study

  3. Example-based learning: comparing the effects of additionally providing three different integrative learning activities on physiotherapy intervention knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, Joseph-Omer; Hudon, Anne; Montpetit-Tourangeau, Katherine; Charlin, Bernard; Mamede, Sílvia; van Gog, Tamara

    2015-03-07

    Example-based learning using worked examples can foster clinical reasoning. Worked examples are instructional tools that learners can use to study the steps needed to solve a problem. Studying worked examples paired with completion examples promotes acquisition of problem-solving skills more than studying worked examples alone. Completion examples are worked examples in which some of the solution steps remain unsolved for learners to complete. Providing learners engaged in example-based learning with self-explanation prompts has been shown to foster increased meaningful learning compared to providing no self-explanation prompts. Concept mapping and concept map study are other instructional activities known to promote meaningful learning. This study compares the effects of self-explaining, completing a concept map and studying a concept map on conceptual knowledge and problem-solving skills among novice learners engaged in example-based learning. Ninety-one physiotherapy students were randomized into three conditions. They performed a pre-test and a post-test to evaluate their gains in conceptual knowledge and problem-solving skills (transfer performance) in intervention selection. They studied three pairs of worked/completion examples in a digital learning environment. Worked examples consisted of a written reasoning process for selecting an optimal physiotherapy intervention for a patient. The completion examples were partially worked out, with the last few problem-solving steps left blank for students to complete. The students then had to engage in additional self-explanation, concept map completion or model concept map study in order to synthesize and deepen their knowledge of the key concepts and problem-solving steps. Pre-test performance did not differ among conditions. Post-test conceptual knowledge was higher (P example and completion example strategies to foster intervention selection.

  4. Impact of adding additional providers to resident workload and the resident experience on a medical consultation rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Michele; Linson, Eric; Suneja, Manish; Kuperman, Ethan F

    2017-02-22

    Excellence in Graduate Medical Education requires the right clinical environment with an appropriate workload where residents have enough patients to gain proficiency in medicine with optimal time for reflection. The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) has focused more on work hours rather than workload; however, high resident workload has been associated with lower resident participation in education and fatigue-related errors. Recognizing the potential risks associated with high resident workload and being mindful of the costs of reducing resident workload, we sought to reduce residents' workload by adding an advanced practice provider (APP) to the surgical comanagement service (SCM) and study its effect on resident satisfaction and perceived educational value of the rotation. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2014 and 2015, an additional faculty member was added to the SCM rotation. In FY 2014, the faculty member was a staff physician, and in FY 2015, the faculty member was an APP.. Resident workload was assessed using billing data. We measured residents' perceptions of the rotation using an anonymous electronic survey tool. We compared FY2014-2015 data to the baseline FY2013. The number of patients seen per resident per day decreased from 8.0(SD 3.3) in FY2013 to 5.0(SD 1.9) in FY2014 (p value of the rotation (40.0%, 72.2%, 72.6% in FY2013, 2014, 2015 respectively, p perceived educational value and clinical experience of a medical consultation rotation.

  5. The drone as an additional risk factor due to conditions not provided for in radiological safety at major events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Gilberto de Jesus

    2015-01-01

    Major international events are potential targets of terrorist actions, seeking instant publicity that events of this magnitude provide, with the intention of causing terror and disseminate its power to a large number of people worldwide. In this context, the critical analysis of additional risk factor linked to procedures and protocols adopted on radiation safety is important. The possibility of unforeseen situations of risk, especially those resulting from the current global technological development, is a fact. Radioactive material can be used in this type of terrorism in a wide range of devices and illicit trafficking of this material is a reality that worries the International Atomic Energy Agency. In the current technological development scenario of the world, the potential occurrence of terrorist acts using drones combined with radioactive material dispersal devices, is real. The recent history of drones incidents presents cases where, despite not having been necessarily terrorist motivation, their circumstances and characteristics favor the occurrence of malicious acts. This paper proposes to alert the need of updating the current security protocols, considering the potential association of this technology with radioactive dispersal devices. (author)

  6. Raising Confident Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...

  7. When do anterior external or internal fixators provide additional stability in an unstable (Tile C) pelvic fracture? A biomechanical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcdonald, E; Theologis, A A; Horst, P; Kandemir, U; Pekmezci, M

    2015-12-01

    This study aimed at evaluating the additional stability that is provided by anterior external and internal fixators in an unstable pelvic fracture model (OTA 61-C). An unstable pelvic fracture (OTA 61-C) was created in 27 synthetic pelves by making a 5-mm gap through the sacral foramina (posterior injury) and an ipsilateral pubic rami fracture (anterior injury). The posterior injury was fixed with either a single iliosacral (IS) screw, a single trans-iliac, trans-sacral (TS) screw, or two iliosacral screws (S1S2). Two anterior fixation techniques were utilized: external fixation (Ex-Fix) and supra-acetabular external fixation and internal fixation (In-Fix); supra-acetabular pedicle screws connected with a single subcutaneous spinal rod. The specimens were tested using a nondestructive single-leg stance model. Peak-to-peak (P2P) displacement and rotation and conditioning displacement (CD) were calculated. The Ex-Fix group failed in 83.3 % of specimens with concomitant single-level posterior fixation (Total: 15/18-7 of 9 IS fixation, 8 of 9 TS fixation), and 0 % (0/9) of specimens with concomitant two-level (S1S2) posterior fixation. All specimens with the In-Fix survived testing except for two specimens treated with In-Fix combined with IS fixation. Trans-sacral fixation had higher pubic rotation and greater sacral and pubic displacement than S1S2 (p < 0.05). Rotation of the pubis and sacrum was not different between In-Fix constructs combined with single-level IS and TS fixation. In this model of an unstable pelvic fracture (OTA 61-C), anterior fixation with an In-Fix was biomechanically superior to an anterior Ex-Fix in the setting of single-level posterior fixation. There was no biomechanical difference between the In-Fix and Ex-Fix when each was combined with two levels of posterior sacral fixation.

  8. The perceptions of teachers and principals toward providing additional compensation to teachers in high-need subject areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longing, Jeffrey Lucian

    The purpose of this study was to determine possible differences in the perceptions of teachers teaching in high-need areas (i.e., math, science, special education, etc.) and teachers not teaching in high-need areas, (i.e., business education, physical education, etc.) as defined by the states of Arkansas and Louisiana, regarding higher compensation for high-need teachers. In addition, possible perception differences among principals and teachers were determined. The independent variables consisted of gender, position held, years of certified experience, and certification areas. The dependent variable was the perceptions of the participants on providing higher compensation for high-need teachers in order to attract and retain them. The data for all variables were collected using the Teacher Compensation Survey. The sample for this study was limited to teachers, grades 9 through 12, and principals of public high schools in south Arkansas and north Louisiana. Forty-four school districts in south Arkansas (Arkansas Department of Education, 2008a) and north Louisiana (Louisiana Department of Education, 2008a) met the criteria for this study. Twenty-two superintendents gave permission for their districts to participate in the research. A sample of 849 teachers and 38 principals were identified in these districts. Surveys were returned from 350 teachers, creating a 41% response rate. When the 31 principals that returned surveys were added to the total population, the response rate increased to 43% with 381 of the 887 surveyed responding. However, 42 of the teachers and two of the principals skipped some of the questions on the survey and were not included in the study. The researcher used a One-Way ANOVA and independent t-tests to determine the presence of statistical differences at the .05 level. The data showed that most math and science teachers agreed that high-need teachers should be compensated at a higher rate than teachers not teaching in high-need areas. The data

  9. 48 CFR 227.7009-4 - Additional clauses-contracts providing for payment of a running royalty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...-contracts providing for payment of a running royalty. 227.7009-4 Section 227.7009-4 Federal Acquisition... clauses—contracts providing for payment of a running royalty. The clauses set forth below are examples... desired to cover the subject matter thereof and the contract provides for payment of a running royalty. (a...

  10. 76 FR 59614 - Facilitating the Use of Microwave for Wireless Backhaul and Other Uses and Providing Additional...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-27

    ... requires ``complex electronics to coordinate the transmissions, with the additional disadvantage of... Service operators to utilize 60 and 80 megahertz channels, it will simplify the electronics, lowers costs... accordance with the Commission's ex parte rules. Persons making ex parte presentations must file a copy of...

  11. The Model Confidence Set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

    The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS......, beyond the comparison of models. We apply the MCS procedure to two empirical problems. First, we revisit the inflation forecasting problem posed by Stock and Watson (1999), and compute the MCS for their set of inflation forecasts. Second, we compare a number of Taylor rule regressions and determine...... the MCS of the best in terms of in-sample likelihood criteria....

  12. Confidence in critical care nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jeanne; Bell, Jennifer L; Sweeney, Annemarie E; Morgan, Jennifer I; Kelly, Helen M

    2010-10-01

    The purpose of the study was to gain an understanding of the nursing phenomenon, confidence, from the experience of nurses in the nursing subculture of critical care. Leininger's theory of cultural care diversity and universality guided this qualitative descriptive study. Questions derived from the sunrise model were used to elicit nurses' perspectives about cultural and social structures that exist within the critical care nursing subculture and the influence that these factors have on confidence. Twenty-eight critical care nurses from a large Canadian healthcare organization participated in semistructured interviews about confidence. Five themes arose from the descriptions provided by the participants. The three themes, tenuously navigating initiation rituals, deliberately developing holistic supportive relationships, and assimilating clinical decision-making rules were identified as social and cultural factors related to confidence. The remaining two themes, preserving a sense of security despite barriers and accommodating to diverse challenges, were identified as environmental factors related to confidence. Practice and research implications within the culture of critical care nursing are discussed in relation to each of the themes.

  13. Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

    2012-03-01

    Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

  14. runjags: An R Package Providing Interface Utilities, Model Templates, Parallel Computing Methods and Additional Distributions for MCMC Models in JAGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew J. Denwood

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The runjags package provides a set of interface functions to facilitate running Markov chain Monte Carlo models in JAGS from within R. Automated calculation of appropriate convergence and sample length diagnostics, user-friendly access to commonly used graphical outputs and summary statistics, and parallelized methods of running JAGS are provided. Template model specifications can be generated using a standard lme4-style formula interface to assist users less familiar with the BUGS syntax. Automated simulation study functions are implemented to facilitate model performance assessment, as well as drop-k type cross-validation studies, using high performance computing clusters such as those provided by parallel. A module extension for JAGS is also included within runjags, providing the Pareto family of distributions and a series of minimally-informative priors including the DuMouchel and half-Cauchy priors. This paper outlines the primary functions of this package, and gives an illustration of a simulation study to assess the sensitivity of two equivalent model formulations to different prior distributions.

  15. Additional electrodes on the Quartet™ LV lead provide more programmable pacing options than bipolar and tripolar equivalents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, David; Sperzel, Johannes; Thibault, Bernard; Rinaldi, Christopher A; Pappone, Carlo; Gutleben, Klaus-Jürgen; Leclercq, Christopher; Razavi, Hedi; Ryu, Kyungmoo; Mcspadden, Luke C; Fischer, Avi; Tomassoni, Gery

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate any benefits to the number of viable pacing vectors and maximal spatial coverage with quadripolar left ventricular (LV) leads when compared with tripolar and bipolar equivalents in patients receiving cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). A meta-analysis of five previously published clinical trials involving the Quartet™ LV lead (St Jude Medical, St Paul, MN, USA) was performed to evaluate the number of viable pacing vectors defined as capture thresholds ≤2.5 V and no phrenic nerve stimulation and maximal spatial coverage of viable vectors in CRT patients at pre-discharge (n = 370) and first follow-up (n = 355). Bipolar and tripolar lead configurations were modelled by systematic elimination of two and one electrode(s), respectively, from the Quartet lead. The Quartet lead with its four pacing electrodes exhibited the greatest number of pacing vectors per patient when compared with the best bipolar and the best tripolar modelled equivalents. Similarly, the Quartet lead provided the highest spatial coverage in terms of the distance between two furthest viable pacing cathodes when compared with the best bipolar and the best tripolar configurations (P tripolar configurations, elimination of the second proximal electrode (M3) resulted in the highest number of viable pacing options per patient. There were no significant differences observed between pre-discharge and first follow-up analyses. The Quartet lead with its four electrodes and the capability to pace from four anatomical locations provided the highest number of viable pacing vectors at pre-discharge and first follow-up visits, providing more flexibility in device programming and enabling continuation of CRT in more patients when compared with bipolar and tripolar equivalents. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Contrast-enhanced spectral mammography: Does mammography provide additional clinical benefits or can some radiation exposure be avoided?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallenberg, Eva Maria; Dromain, Clarisse; Diekmann, Felix; Renz, Diane M; Amer, Heba; Ingold-Heppner, Barbara; Neumann, Avidan U; Winzer, Klaus J; Bick, Ulrich; Hamm, Bernd; Engelken, Florian

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare contrast-enhanced spectral mammography (CESM) with mammography (MG) and combined CESM + MG in terms of detection and size estimation of histologically proven breast cancers in order to assess the potential to reduce radiation exposure. A total of 118 patients underwent MG and CESM and had final histological results. CESM was performed as a bilateral examination starting 2 min after injection of iodinated contrast medium. Three independent blinded radiologists read the CESM, MG, and CESM + MG images with an interval of at least 4 weeks to avoid case memorization. Sensitivity and size measurement correlation and differences were calculated, average glandular dose (AGD) levels were compared, and breast densities were reported. Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon tests were performed. A total of 107 imaging pairs were available for analysis. Densities were ACR1: 2, ACR2: 45, ACR3: 42, and ACR4: 18. Mean AGD was 1.89 mGy for CESM alone, 1.78 mGy for MG, and 3.67 mGy for the combination. In very dense breasts, AGD of CESM was significantly lower than MG. Sensitivity across readers was 77.9 % for MG alone, 94.7 % for CESM, and 95 % for CESM + MG. Average tumor size measurement error compared to postsurgical pathology was -0.6 mm for MG, +0.6 mm for CESM, and +4.5 mm for CESM + MG (p < 0.001 for CESM + MG vs. both modalities). CESM alone has the same sensitivity and better size assessment as CESM + MG and was significantly better than MG with only 6.2 % increase in AGD. The combination of CESM + MG led to systematic size overestimation. When a CESM examination is planned, additional MG can be avoided, with the possibility of saving up to 61 % of radiation dose, especially in patients with dense breasts.

  17. Additional Haptic Information Provided by Anchors Reduces Postural Sway in Young Adults Less Than Does Light Touch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Moraes

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of adding haptic information to the control of posture, as well as comparing the effect of both the “light touch” (LT and “anchor system” (AS paradigms on postural sway. Additionally, it compared the effect of location and number of points of contact to the control of posture in young adults. The location consisted of using the anchors tied to the finger and held by the hands, and, for LT, the fingertip. For the number of points of contact, participants used two hands, and then separately the dominant hand, and the non-dominant hand, for both anchor and LT paradigms. Participants stood upright with feet-together and in tandem position while performing tasks that combined the use of anchors and LT, points of contact (hand grip and finger, and number of points of contact (two hands and one hand. In this study, the anchors consist of holding in each hand a flexible cable with the other end attached to the ground. The LT consists of slightly touching a rigid surface with the tip of the index finger. The results showed, first, that the anchors improved postural control less than did the LT. Second, they revealed that holding the anchors with the hands or with them tied to the fingertip resulted in a similar reduction in postural sway only in the tandem position. For the feet-together position, the anchors tied to the fingertip were ineffective. Similarly, the use of one or two hands did not affect the contribution of the anchors. However, using two hands in the LT condition was more effective than was one hand. Third, our results showed the presence of a temporal delay between force and center-of-pressure (COP for the anchors, only in the AP direction with feet-together. In conclusion, overall, the anchors were less effective in reducing postural sway than was the LT. The anchors attached to fingertips were as effective as the hand-held anchors in the tandem position, yet ineffective during foot

  18. Maternal Confidence for Physiologic Childbirth: A Concept Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neerland, Carrie E

    2018-06-06

    Confidence is a term often used in research literature and consumer media in relation to birth, but maternal confidence has not been clearly defined, especially as it relates to physiologic labor and birth. The aim of this concept analysis was to define maternal confidence in the context of physiologic labor and childbirth. Rodgers' evolutionary method was used to identify attributes, antecedents, and consequences of maternal confidence for physiologic birth. Databases searched included Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Sociological Abstracts from the years 1995 to 2015. A total of 505 articles were retrieved, using the search terms pregnancy, obstetric care, prenatal care, and self-efficacy and the keyword confidence. Articles were identified for in-depth review and inclusion based on whether the term confidence was used or assessed in relationship to labor and/or birth. In addition, a hand search of the reference lists of the selected articles was performed. Twenty-four articles were reviewed in this concept analysis. We define maternal confidence for physiologic birth as a woman's belief that physiologic birth can be achieved, based on her view of birth as a normal process and her belief in her body's innate ability to birth, which is supported by social support, knowledge, and information founded on a trusted relationship with a maternity care provider in an environment where the woman feels safe. This concept analysis advances the concept of maternal confidence for physiologic birth and provides new insight into how women's confidence for physiologic birth might be enhanced during the prenatal period. Further investigation of confidence for physiologic birth across different cultures is needed to identify cultural differences in constructions of the concept. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

  19. Confidence, Visual Research, and the Aesthetic Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stan Ruecker

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this article is to identify and describe one of the primary purposes of aesthetic quality in the design of computer interfaces and visualization tools. We suggest that humanists can derive advantages in visual research by acknowledging by their efforts to advance aesthetic quality that a significant function of aesthetics in this context is to inspire the user’s confidence. This confidence typically serves to create a sense of trust in the provider of the interface or tool. In turn, this increased trust may result in an increased willingness to engage with the object, on the basis that it demonstrates an attention to detail that promises to reward increased engagement. In addition to confidence, the aesthetic may also contribute to a heightened degree of satisfaction with having spent time using or investigating the object. In the realm of interface design and visualization research, we propose that these aesthetic functions have implications not only for the quality of interactions, but also for the results of the standard measures of performance and preference.

  20. 14 CFR 61.419 - How do I obtain privileges to provide training in an additional category or class of light-sport...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... training in an additional category or class of light-sport aircraft? 61.419 Section 61.419 Aeronautics and...: PILOTS, FLIGHT INSTRUCTORS, AND GROUND INSTRUCTORS Flight Instructors With a Sport Pilot Rating § 61.419 How do I obtain privileges to provide training in an additional category or class of light-sport...

  1. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  2. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-01-01

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to ''forecast,'' that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists ''think.'' This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. ''Confidence'' derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  3. Globalization of consumer confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Çelik Sadullah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The globalization of world economies and the importance of nowcasting analysis have been at the core of the recent literature. Nevertheless, these two strands of research are hardly coupled. This study aims to fill this gap through examining the globalization of the consumer confidence index (CCI by applying conventional and unconventional econometric methods. The US CCI is used as the benchmark in tests of comovement among the CCIs of several developing and developed countries, with the data sets divided into three sub-periods: global liquidity abundance, the Great Recession, and postcrisis. The existence and/or degree of globalization of the CCIs vary according to the period, whereas globalization in the form of coherence and similar paths is observed only during the Great Recession and, surprisingly, stronger in developing/emerging countries.

  4. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  5. Public confidence and nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaussade, J.P.

    1990-01-01

    Today in France there are 54 nuclear power units in operation at 18 sites. They supply 75% of all electricity produced, 12% of which is exported to neighbouring countries, and play an important role in the French economy. For the French, nuclear power is a fact of life, and most accept it. However, the accident of Chernobyl has made public opinion more sensitive, and the public relations work has had to be reconsidered carefully with a view to increase the confidence of the French public in nuclear power, anticipating media crises and being equipped to deal with such crises. The three main approaches are the following: keeping the public better informed, providing clear information at time of crisis and international activities

  6. Thought confidence as a determinant of persuasion: the self-validation hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petty, Richard E; Briñol, Pablo; Tormala, Zakary L

    2002-05-01

    Previous research in the domain of attitude change has described 2 primary dimensions of thinking that impact persuasion processes and outcomes: the extent (amount) of thinking and the direction (valence) of issue-relevant thought. The authors examined the possibility that another, more meta-cognitive aspect of thinking is also important-the degree of confidence people have in their own thoughts. Four studies test the notion that thought confidence affects the extent of persuasion. When positive thoughts dominate in response to a message, increasing confidence in those thoughts increases persuasion, but when negative thoughts dominate, increasing confidence decreases persuasion. In addition, using self-reported and manipulated thought confidence in separate studies, the authors provide evidence that the magnitude of the attitude-thought relationship depends on the confidence people have in their thoughts. Finally, the authors also show that these self-validation effects are most likely in situations that foster high amounts of information processing activity.

  7. Diverse interpretations of confidence building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macintosh, J.

    1998-01-01

    This paper explores the variety of operational understandings associated with the term 'confidence building'. Collectively, these understandings constitute what should be thought of as a 'family' of confidence building approaches. This unacknowledged and generally unappreciated proliferation of operational understandings that function under the rubric of confidence building appears to be an impediment to effective policy. The paper's objective is to analyze these different understandings, stressing the important differences in their underlying assumptions. In the process, the paper underlines the need for the international community to clarify its collective thinking about what it means when it speaks of 'confidence building'. Without enhanced clarity, it will be unnecessarily difficult to employ the confidence building approach effectively due to the lack of consistent objectives and common operating assumptions. Although it is not the intention of this paper to promote a particular account of confidence building, dissecting existing operational understandings should help to identify whether there are fundamental elements that define what might be termed 'authentic' confidence building. Implicit here is the view that some operational understandings of confidence building may diverge too far from consensus models to count as meaningful members of the confidence building family. (author)

  8. Medical Care Provided Under California's Workers' Compensation Program: Effects of the Reforms and Additional Opportunities to Improve the Quality and Efficiency of Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynn, Barbara O; Timbie, Justin W; Sorbero, Melony E

    2011-01-01

    Since 2004, significant changes have been made to the California workers' compensation (WC) system. The Commission on Health and Safety and Workers' Compensation (CHSWC) asked the RAND Corporation to examine the impact that these changes have on the medical care provided to injured workers. This study synthesizes findings from interviews and available information regarding the implementation of the changes affecting WC medical care and identifies areas in which additional changes might increase the quality and efficiency of care delivered under the WC system. To improve incentives for efficiently providing medically appropriate care, California should revise its fee schedule allowances for services provided by hospitals to inpatients, freestanding ambulatory surgery centers, and physicians, create nonmonetary incentives for providing medically appropriate care in the medical provider network (MPN) context through more-selective contracting with providers and reducing medical review requirements for high-performing physicians; reduce incentives for inappropriate prescribing practices by curtailing in-office physician dispensing; and implement pharmacy benefit network regulations. To increase accountability for performance, California should revise the MPN certification process to place accountability for meeting MPN standards on the entity contracting with the physician network; strengthen Division of Workers' Compensation (DWC) authorities to provide intermediate sanctions for failure to comply with MPN requirements; and modify the Labor Code to remove payers and MPNs from the definition of individually identifiable data so that performance on key measures can be publicly available. To facilitate monitoring and oversight, California should provide DWC with more flexibility to add needed data elements to medical data reporting and provide penalties for a claim administrator failing to comply with the data-reporting requirements; require that medical cost

  9. Functional Dissociation of Confident and Not-Confident Errors in the Spatial Delayed Response Task Demonstrates Impairments in Working Memory Encoding and Maintenance in Schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jutta S. Mayer

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Even though extensively investigated, the nature of working memory (WM deficits in patients with schizophrenia (PSZ is not yet fully understood. In particular, the contribution of different WM sub-processes to the severe WM deficit observed in PSZ is a matter of debate. So far, most research has focused on impaired WM maintenance. By analyzing different types of errors in a spatial delayed response task (DRT, we have recently demonstrated that incorrect yet confident responses (which we labeled as false memory errors rather than incorrect/not-confident responses reflect failures of WM encoding, which was also impaired in PSZ. In the present study, we provide further evidence for a functional dissociation between confident and not-confident errors by manipulating the demands on WM maintenance, i.e., the length over which information has to be maintained in WM. Furthermore, we investigate whether these functionally distinguishable WM processes are impaired in PSZ. Twenty-four PSZ and 24 demographically matched healthy controls (HC performed a spatial DRT in which the length of the delay period was varied between 1, 2, 4, and 6 s. In each trial, participants also rated their level of response confidence. Across both groups, longer delays led to increased rates of incorrect/not-confident responses, while incorrect/confident responses were not affected by delay length. This functional dissociation provides additional support for our proposal that false memory errors (i.e., confident errors reflect problems at the level of WM encoding, while not-confident errors reflect failures of WM maintenance. Schizophrenic patients showed increased numbers of both confident and not-confident errors, suggesting that both sub-processes of WM—encoding and maintenance—are impaired in schizophrenia. Combined with the delay length-dependent functional dissociation, we propose that these impairments in schizophrenic patients are functionally distinguishable.

  10. Service provider perceptions of telerehabilitation as an additional service delivery option within an Australian neurosurgical and orthopaedic physiotherapy screening clinic: A qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottrell, Michelle A; Hill, Anne J; O'Leary, Shaun P; Raymer, Maree E; Russell, Trevor G

    2017-12-01

    The Neurosurgical & Orthopaedic Physiotherapy Screening Clinic and Multidisciplinary Service (N/OPSC&MDS) originated as a complementary, non-surgical pathway for patients referred to public neurosurgical and orthopaedic specialist services. Patient access to the N/OPSC&MDS could potentially be improved with the implementation of telerehabilitation as an additional method of service delivery. To evaluate service provider's views on (1) current barriers to patients' accessing N/OPSC & MD services, and (2) the implementation of telerehabilitation within the N/OPSC&MDS. Qualitative descriptive study design. Healthcare providers (n = 26) were recruited from six N/OPSC&MD services located throughout Queensland, Australia. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore service providers' views with respect to existing barriers to patients accessing the N/OPSC&MDS, and if telerehabilitation could be feasibly adopted to address current barriers. Template analysis resulted in six themes: (1) barriers to some patients' accessing current N/OPSC&MD services are complex & multifaceted; (2) telerehabilitation could improve patient access to appropriate management for their musculoskeletal condition; (3) telerehabilitation may have limitations when compared to face-to-face healthcare; (4) the delivery of telerehabilitation needs to be flexible; (5) perceived barriers, and (6) facilitators to the successful implementation of telerehabilitation within the N/OPSC&MDS. This study represents a critical step in determining the readiness of service providers for the implementation of telerehabilitation within the N/OPSC&MDS. Although cautious, service providers are overall accepting of the implementation of telerehabilitation, acknowledging that it could eliminate several current barriers, subsequently achieving more equitable access to the service. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Additive manufactured serialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobbitt, III, John T.

    2017-04-18

    Methods for forming an identifying mark in a structure are described. The method is used in conjunction with an additive manufacturing method and includes the alteration of a process parameter during the manufacturing process. The method can form in a unique identifying mark within or on the surface of a structure that is virtually impossible to be replicated. Methods can provide a high level of confidence that the identifying mark will remain unaltered on the formed structure.

  12. EFFECT OF AN ADDITIONAL HYDROPHILIC VERSUS HYDROPHOBIC COAT ON THE QUALITY OF DENTINAL SEALING PROVIDED BY TWO-STEP ETCH-AND-RINSE ADHESIVES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Safira Marques de Andrade; Carrilho, Marcela Rocha de Oliveira; Marquezini, Luiz; Garcia, Fernanda Cristina Pimentel; Manso, Adriana Pigozzo; Alves, Marcelo Corrêa; de Carvalho, Ricardo Marins

    2009-01-01

    Objective: To test the hypothesis that the quality of the dentinal sealing provided by two-step etch-and-rinse adhesives cannot be altered by the addition of an extra layer of the respective adhesive or the application of a more hydrophobic, non-solvated resin. Material and Methods: full-crown preparations were acid-etched with phosphoric acid for 15 s and bonded with Adper Single Bond (3M ESPE), Excite DSC (Ivoclar/Vivadent) or Prime & Bond NT (Dentsply). The adhesives were used according to the manufacturers' instructions (control groups) or after application to dentin they were a) covered with an extra coat of each respective system or b) coated with a non-solvated bonding agent (Adper Scotchbond Multi-Purpose Adhesive, 3M ESPE). Fluid flow rate was measured before and after dentin surfaces were acid-etched and bonded with adhesives. Results: None of the adhesives or experimental treatments was capable to block completely the fluid transudation across the treated dentin. Application of an extra coat of the adhesive did not reduce the fluid flow rate of adhesive-bonded dentin (p>0.05). Conversely, the application of a more hydrophobic non-solvated resin resulted in significant reductions in the fluid flow rate (padhesives. Conclusions: The quality of the dentinal sealing provided by etch-and-rinse adhesives can be significantly improved by the application of a more hydrophobic, non-solvated bonding agent. PMID:19466248

  13. Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

  14. Nuclear power: restoring public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, L.

    1986-01-01

    The paper concerns a one day conference on nuclear power organised by the Centre for Science Studies and Science Policy, Lancaster, April 1986. Following the Chernobyl reactor accident, the conference concentrated on public confidence in nuclear power. Causes of lack of public confidence, public perceptions of risk, and the effect of Chernobyl in the United Kingdom, were all discussed. A Select Committee on the Environment examined the problems of radioactive waste disposal. (U.K.)

  15. ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luis, Gache

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

  16. Low-dose gamma irradiation following hot water immersion of papaya (Carica papaya linn.) fruits provides additional control of postharvest fungal infection to extend shelf life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashid, M.H.A.; Grout, B.W.W.; Continella, A.; Mahmud, T.M.M.

    2015-01-01

    Low-dose gamma irradiation (0.08 kGy over 10 min), a level significantly below that required to satisfy the majority of international quarantine regulations, has been employed to provide a significant reduction in visible fungal infection on papaya fruit surfaces. This is appropriate for local and national markets in producer countries where levels of commercial acceptability can be retained despite surface lesions due to fungal infection. Irradiation alone and in combination with hot-water immersion (50 °C for 10 min) has been applied to papaya (Carica papaya L.) fruits at both the mature green and 1/3 yellow stages of maturity. The incidence and severity of surface fungal infections, including anthracnose, were significantly reduced by the combined treatment compared to irradiation or hot water treatment alone, extending storage at 11 °C by 13 days and retaining commercial acceptability. The combined treatment had no significant, negative impact on ripening, with quality characteristics such as surface and internal colour change, firmness, soluble solids, acidity and vitamin C maintained at acceptable levels. - Highlights: • Storage of papaya extended to 28 days whilst retaining commercial quality. • Additive effect of low gamma irradiation (0.08 kGy over 10 min) and hot-water treatment. • Significant reduction in surface fungal lesions. • No significant impact on colour change or flesh quality during storage

  17. Ultrahigh sensitivity endoscopic camera using a new CMOS image sensor: providing with clear images under low illumination in addition to fluorescent images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Hisae; Yamashita, Hiromasa; Mori, Toshiyuki; Fukuyo, Tsuneo; Chiba, Toshio

    2014-11-01

    We developed a new ultrahigh-sensitive CMOS camera using a specific sensor that has a wide range of spectral sensitivity characteristics. The objective of this study is to present our updated endoscopic technology that has successfully integrated two innovative functions; ultrasensitive imaging as well as advanced fluorescent viewing. Two different experiments were conducted. One was carried out to evaluate the function of the ultrahigh-sensitive camera. The other was to test the availability of the newly developed sensor and its performance as a fluorescence endoscope. In both studies, the distance from the endoscopic tip to the target was varied and those endoscopic images in each setting were taken for further comparison. In the first experiment, the 3-CCD camera failed to display the clear images under low illumination, and the target was hardly seen. In contrast, the CMOS camera was able to display the targets regardless of the camera-target distance under low illumination. Under high illumination, imaging quality given by both cameras was quite alike. In the second experiment as a fluorescence endoscope, the CMOS camera was capable of clearly showing the fluorescent-activated organs. The ultrahigh sensitivity CMOS HD endoscopic camera is expected to provide us with clear images under low illumination in addition to the fluorescent images under high illumination in the field of laparoscopic surgery.

  18. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  19. Principles of psychological confidence of NPP operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpeev, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    The problems of operator interaction with subsystems supporting his activity are discussed from the point of view of formation of his psychological confidence on the basis of the automation intellectual means capabilities. The functions of operator activity supporting subsystems, which realization will provide to decrease greatly the portion of accidents at NPPs connected with mistakes in operator actions, are derived. 6 refs

  20. Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kłopocka, Aneta Maria

    2017-01-01

    Consumer confidence plays an important role in households' decision-making processes. This study investigates the effects of consumer confidence on household saving and borrowing behavior that are unsatisfactorily considered in previous discussions. The questions of interest are first, whether indexes of consumer confidence have any predictive power on their own for future household saving and borrowing rates, and second, whether they contain information about future household saving and borrowing rates aside from the information contained in other available indicators. In addition to aggregate confidence indicators, their components are used to provide more precise information. Overall, the multiple linear regression analysis (OLS technique) of Polish time-series data gives positive answers to both questions. This finding supports the recommendation of combining the strengths of objective indicators (such as economic fundamentals) and subjective indicators (such as consumer confidence) to improve household financial behavior forecasts.

  1. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  2. Confidence building - is science the only approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bragg, K.

    1990-01-01

    The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) has begun to develop some simplified methods to determine if it is possible to provide confidence that dose, risk and environmental criteria can be respected without undue reliance on detailed scientific models. The progress to date will be outlined and the merits of this new approach will be compared to the more complex, traditional approach. Stress will be given to generating confidence in both technical and non-technical communities as well as the need to enhance communication between them. 3 refs., 1 tab

  3. Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cleminson, F.R. [Dept. of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Verification, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament Div (IDA), Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    1998-07-01

    Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

  4. Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleminson, F.R.

    1998-01-01

    Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

  5. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  6. Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations

    OpenAIRE

    Navruz, Bilgin; Delen, Erhan

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...

  7. Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

    2015-01-01

    Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

  8. Methodology for building confidence measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramson, Aaron L.

    2004-04-01

    This paper presents a generalized methodology for propagating known or estimated levels of individual source document truth reliability to determine the confidence level of a combined output. Initial document certainty levels are augmented by (i) combining the reliability measures of multiply sources, (ii) incorporating the truth reinforcement of related elements, and (iii) incorporating the importance of the individual elements for determining the probability of truth for the whole. The result is a measure of confidence in system output based on the establishing of links among the truth values of inputs. This methodology was developed for application to a multi-component situation awareness tool under development at the Air Force Research Laboratory in Rome, New York. Determining how improvements in data quality and the variety of documents collected affect the probability of a correct situational detection helps optimize the performance of the tool overall.

  9. Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Le Heron

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

  10. Comprehensive Plan for Public Confidence in Nuclear Regulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Kwang Sik; Choi, Young Sung; Kim, Ho ki

    2008-01-01

    Public confidence in nuclear regulator has been discussed internationally. Public trust or confidence is needed for achieving regulatory goal of assuring nuclear safety to the level that is acceptable by the public or providing public ease for nuclear safety. In Korea, public ease or public confidence has been suggested as major policy goal in the 'Nuclear regulatory policy direction' annually announced. This paper reviews theory of trust, its definitions and defines nuclear safety regulation, elements of public trust or public confidence developed based on the study conducted so far. Public ease model developed and 10 measures for ensuring public confidence are also presented and future study directions are suggested

  11. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaacs, T

    2002-01-01

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

  12. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaacs, T

    2002-01-01

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

  13. Limits on normal cochlear 'third' windows provided by previous investigations of additional sound paths into and out of the cat inner ear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosowski, John J; Bowers, Peter; Nakajima, Hideko H

    2018-03-01

    While most models of cochlear function assume the presence of only two windows into the mammalian cochlea (the oval and round windows), a position that is generally supported by several lines of data, there is evidence for additional sound paths into and out of the inner ear in normal mammals. In this report we review the existing evidence for and against the 'two-window' hypothesis. We then determine how existing data and inner-ear anatomy restrict transmission of sound through these additional sound pathways in cat by utilizing a well-tested model of the cat inner ear, together with anatomical descriptions of the cat cochlear and vestibular aqueducts (potential additional windows to the cochlea). We conclude: (1) The existing data place limits on the size of the cochlear and vestibular aqueducts in cat and are consistent with small volume-velocities through these ducts during ossicular stimulation of the cochlea, (2) the predicted volume velocities produced by aqueducts with diameters half the size of the bony diameters match the functional data within ±10 dB, and (3) these additional volume velocity paths contribute to the inner ear's response to non-acoustic stimulation and conductive pathology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Leadership by Confidence in Teams

    OpenAIRE

    Kobayashi, Hajime; Suehiro, Hideo

    2008-01-01

    We study endogenous signaling by analyzing a team production problem with endogenous timing. Each agent of the team is privately endowed with some level of confidence about team productivity. Each of them must then commit a level of effort in one of two periods. At the end of each period, each agent observes his partner' s move in this period. Both agents are rewarded by a team output determined by team productivity and total invested effort. Each agent must personally incur the cost of effor...

  15. Towards confidence in transport safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robison, R.W.

    1992-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) plans to demonstrate to the public that high-level waste can be transported safely to the proposed repository. The author argues US DOE should begin now to demonstrate its commitment to safety by developing an extraordinary safety program for nuclear cargo it is now shipping. The program for current shipments should be developed with State, Tribal, and local officials. Social scientists should be involved in evaluating the effect of the safety program on public confidence. The safety program developed in cooperation with western states for shipments to the Waste Isolation Pilot plant is a good basis for designing that extraordinary safety program

  16. Factors affecting midwives' confidence in intrapartum care: a phenomenological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedwell, Carol; McGowan, Linda; Lavender, Tina

    2015-01-01

    midwives are frequently the lead providers of care for women throughout labour and birth. In order to perform their role effectively and provide women with the choices they require midwives need to be confident in their practice. This study explores factors which may affect midwives' confidence in their practice. hermeneutic phenomenology formed the theoretical basis for the study. Prospective longitudinal data collection was completed using diaries and semi-structured interviews. Twelve midwives providing intrapartum care in a variety of settings were recruited to ensure a variety of experiences in different contexts were captured. the principal factor affecting workplace confidence, both positively and negatively, was the influence of colleagues. Perceived autonomy and a sense of familiarity could also enhance confidence. However, conflict in the workplace was a critical factor in reducing midwives' confidence. Confidence was an important, but fragile, phenomenon to midwives and they used a variety of coping strategies, emotional intelligence and presentation management to maintain it. this is the first study to highlight both the factors influencing midwives' workplace confidence and the strategies midwives employed to maintain their confidence. Confidence is important in maintaining well-being and workplace culture may play a role in explaining the current low morale within the midwifery workforce. This may have implications for women's choices and care. Support, effective leadership and education may help midwives develop and sustain a positive sense of confidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Pomegranate extract and exercise provide additive benefits on improvement of immune function by inhibiting inflammation and oxidative stress in high-fat-diet-induced obesity in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Fei; Pang, Wentao; Zhang, Ziyi; Zhao, Jialong; Wang, Xin; Liu, Ye; Wang, Xun; Feng, Zhihui; Zhang, Yong; Sun, Wenyan; Liu, Jiankang

    2016-06-01

    Obesity is reported to be associated with immune dysfunction and a state of low-grade, chronic inflammation. Either pomegranate extract (PomE) or exercise (Ex) has been shown to have antiobesity, anti-inflammatory and antioxidant effects. Nevertheless, no study has addressed the additive benefits of PomE and Ex on the restoration of obesity-induced immune defects. The present work aims to study the effect of PomE and Ex as a combined intervention on immune function and the underlying mechanism involved in inflammation and oxidative stress in rats with high-fat-diet (HFD)-induced obesity. Our results demonstrate that the combination of PomE and Ex showed additive benefits on inhibition of HFD-induced body weight increase and improvement of HFD-induced immune dysfunction, including (a) attenuating the abnormality of histomorphology of the spleen, (b) increasing the ratio of the CD4+:CD8+ T cell subpopulations in splenocytes and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), (c) inhibition of apoptosis in splenocytes and PBMC, (d) normalizing peritoneal macrophage phenotypes and (e) restoring immunomodulating factors in serum. We also find that immune dysfunction in HFD-fed rats was associated with increased inflammatory cytokine secretion and oxidative stress biomarkers, and that the combination of PomE and Ex effectively inhibited the inflammatory response and decreased oxidative damage. The effect of PomE and Ex as a combined intervention is greater than the effect of either PomE or Ex alone, showing that PomE and Ex may be additively effective in improving immune function in HFD-fed rats by inhibiting inflammation and decreasing oxidative stress. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. The RooPfs study to assess whether improved housing provides additional protection against clinical malaria over current best practice in The Gambia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinder, Margeret; Conteh, Lesong; Jeffries, David

    2016-01-01

    ) and prompt treatment in The Gambia, determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of the interventions, and analyze the housing market in The Gambia. Methods/design A two-armed, household, cluster-randomized, controlled study will be conducted to assess whether improved housing and LLINs combine to provide...

  19. Effect size, confidence intervals and statistical power in psychological research.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Téllez A.

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative psychological research is focused on detecting the occurrence of certain population phenomena by analyzing data from a sample, and statistics is a particularly helpful mathematical tool that is used by researchers to evaluate hypotheses and make decisions to accept or reject such hypotheses. In this paper, the various statistical tools in psychological research are reviewed. The limitations of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST and the advantages of using effect size and its respective confidence intervals are explained, as the latter two measurements can provide important information about the results of a study. These measurements also can facilitate data interpretation and easily detect trivial effects, enabling researchers to make decisions in a more clinically relevant fashion. Moreover, it is recommended to establish an appropriate sample size by calculating the optimum statistical power at the moment that the research is designed. Psychological journal editors are encouraged to follow APA recommendations strictly and ask authors of original research studies to report the effect size, its confidence intervals, statistical power and, when required, any measure of clinical significance. Additionally, we must account for the teaching of statistics at the graduate level. At that level, students do not receive sufficient information concerning the importance of using different types of effect sizes and their confidence intervals according to the different types of research designs; instead, most of the information is focused on the various tools of NHST.

  20. Workshop on confidence limits. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, F.; Lyons, L.; Perrin, Y.

    2000-01-01

    The First Workshop on Confidence Limits was held at CERN on 17-18 January 2000. It was devoted to the problem of setting confidence limits in difficult cases: number of observed events is small or zero, background is larger than signal, background not well known, and measurements near a physical boundary. Among the many examples in high-energy physics are searches for the Higgs, searches for neutrino oscillations, B s mixing, SUSY, compositeness, neutrino masses, and dark matter. Several different methods are on the market: the CL s methods used by the LEP Higgs searches; Bayesian methods; Feldman-Cousins and modifications thereof; empirical and combined methods. The Workshop generated considerable interest, and attendance was finally limited by the seating capacity of the CERN Council Chamber where all the sessions took place. These proceedings contain all the papers presented, as well as the full text of the discussions after each paper and of course the last session which was a discussion session. The list of participants and the 'required reading', which was expected to be part of the prior knowledge of all participants, are also included. (orig.)

  1. The Great Recession and confidence in homeownership

    OpenAIRE

    Anat Bracha; Julian Jamison

    2013-01-01

    Confidence in homeownership shifts for those who personally experienced real estate loss during the Great Recession. Older Americans are confident in the value of homeownership. Younger Americans are less confident.

  2. Does additional support provided through e-mail or SMS in a Web-based Social Marketing program improve children's food consumption? A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangelov, Natalie; Della Bella, Sara; Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Suggs, L Suzanne

    2018-02-16

    The FAN Social Marketing program was developed to improve dietary and physical activity habits of families with children in Ticino, Switzerland. The aim of this study was to examine if the effects of the program on children's food intake differed by intervention group. Effects of the FAN program were tested through a Randomized Controlled Trial. The program lasted 8 weeks, during which participants received tailored communication about nutrition and physical activity. Families were randomly allocated to one of three groups, where the parent received the intervention by the Web (G1), Web + e-mail (G2) or Web + SMS (G3). Children in all groups received tailored print letters by post. Children's food consumption was assessed at baseline and immediate post intervention using a 7-day food diary. Generalized linear mixed models with child as a random effect and with time, treatment group, and the time by treatment interaction as fixed effects were used to test the impact of the intervention. Analyses were conducted with a sample of 608 children. After participating in FAN the marginal means of daily consumption of fruit changed from 0.95 to 1.12 in G1, from 0.82 to 0.94 in G2, and from 0.93 to 1.18 in G3. The margins of the daily consumption of sweets decreased in each group (1.67 to 1.56 in G1, 1.71 to 1.49 in G2, and 1.72 to 1.62 in G3). The change in vegetable consumption observed from pre to post intervention in G3 (from 1.13 to 1.21) was significantly different from that observed in G1 (from 1.21 to 1.17). A well-designed Web-based Social Marketing intervention complemented with print letters can help improve children's consumption of water, fruit, soft drinks, and sweets. The use of SMS to support greater behavior change, in addition to Web-based communication, resulted only in a small significant positive change for vegetables, while the use of e-mail in addition to Web did not result in any significant difference. The trial was retrospectively registered in the

  3. Knowledge, Self Confidence and Courage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selberg, Hanne; Steenberg Holtzmann, Jette; Hovedskov, Jette

    . Results The students identified their major learning outcomes as transfer of operational skills, experiencing self-efficacy and enhanced understanding of the patients' perspective.Involving simulated patients in the training of technical skills contributed to the development of the students' communication......Knowledge, self confidence and courage – long lasting learning outcomes through simulation in a clinical context. Hanne Selberg1, Jette Hovedskov2, Jette Steenberg Holtzmann2 The significance and methodology of the researchThe study focuses on simulation alongside the clinical practice and linked...... Development, Clinical Lecturer, Metropolitan University College, Faculty of Nursing, Email: hase@phoe.dk, phone: +45-72282830. 2. Jette Hovedskov, RN, Development Consultant, Glostrup University Hospital, Department of Development Email : jeho@glo.regionh.dk ,phone: +45- 43232090 3. Jette Holtzmann Steenberg...

  4. Do wood-based panels made with agro-industrial residues provide environmentally benign alternatives? An LCA case study of sugarcane bagasse addition to particle board manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silva, Diogo Aparecido Lopes; Lahr, Francisco Antonio Rocco; Pavan, Ana Laura Raymundo

    2014-01-01

    environmental impacts? Could it substitute wood as raw material? Accordingly, this paper presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) study of particle board manufactured with sugarcane bagasse residues.The cradle-to-gate assessment of 1 m3 of particle board made with sugarcane bagasse (PSB) considered three main...... subsystem was 9.08 % (economic base). The potential environmental impact phase was assessed by applying the CML and USEtox methods. PSB was compared with the conventional particle board manufactured in Brazil by the categories of the CML and USETox, and including land use indicators. Finally, two scenarios......, it is suggested that the sugarcane bagasse be mixed up to 75 % during particle board manufacturing so that good quality properties and environmental performance of panels can be provided....

  5. Enzyme-polyelectrolyte complexes in water-ethanol mixtures: negatively charged groups artificially introduced into alpha-chymotrypsin provide additional activation and stabilization effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudryashova, E V; Gladilin, A K; Vakurov, A V; Heitz, F; Levashov, A V; Mozhaev, V V

    1997-07-20

    Formation of noncovalent complexes between alpha-chymotrypsin (CT) and a polyelectrolyte, polybrene (PB), has been shown to produce two major effects on enzymatic reactions in binary mixtures of polar organic cosolvents with water. (i) At moderate concentrations of organic cosolvents (10% to 30% v/v), enzymatic activity of CT is higher than in aqueous solutions, and this activation effect is more significant for CT in complex with PB (5- to 7-fold) than for free enzyme (1.5- to 2.5-fold). (ii) The range of cosolvent concentrations that the enzyme tolerates without complete loss of catalytic activity is much broader. For enhancement of enzyme stability in the complex with the polycation, the number of negatively charged groups in the protein has been artificially increased by using chemical modification with pyromellitic and succinic anhydrides. Additional activation effect at moderate concentrations of ethanol and enhanced resistance of the enzyme toward inactivation at high concentrations of the organic solvent have been observed for the modified preparations of CT in the complex with PB as compared with an analogous complex of the native enzyme. Structural changes behind alterations in enzyme activity in water-ethanol mixtures have been studied by the method of circular dichroism (CD). Protein conformation of all CT preparations has not changed significantly up to 30% v/v of ethanol where activation effects in enzymatic catalysis were most pronounced. At higher concentrations of ethanol, structural changes in the protein have been observed for different forms of CT that were well correlated with a decrease in enzymatic activity. (c) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Biotechnol Bioeng 55: 267-277, 1997.

  6. Low-dose gamma irradiation following hot Water immersion of Papaya (Carica Papaya linn.) fruits provides additional control of postharvest fungal infection to extend shelf life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rashid, M.H.A.; Grout, Brian William Wilson; Continella, A.

    2015-01-01

    Low-dose gamma irradiation (0.08 kGy over 10 min), a level significantly below that required to satisfy the majority of international quarantine regulations, has been employed to provide a significant reduction in visible fungal infection on papaya fruit surfaces. This is appropriate for local an....... The combined treatment had no significant, negative impact on ripening, with quality characteristics such as surface and internal colour change, firmness, soluble solids, acidity and vitamin C maintained at acceptable levels....... and national markets in producer countries where levels of commercial acceptability can be retained despite surface lesions due to fungal infection. Irradiation alone and in combination with hot-water immersion (50 °C for 10 min) has been applied to papaya (Carica papaya L.) fruits at both the mature green...... and 1/3 yellow stages of maturity. The incidence and severity of surface fungal infections, including anthracnose, were significantly reduced by the combined treatment compared to irradiation or hot water treatment alone, extending storage at 11 °C by 13 days and retaining commercial acceptability...

  7. Combined parecoxib and I.V. paracetamol provides additional analgesic effect with better postoperative satisfaction in patients undergoing anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeinab Ahmed Elseify

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : Adequacy of postoperative analgesia is one of the most important factors that determine early hospital discharge and patients′ ability to resume their normal activities postoperatively. The optimal non-opioid analgesic technique for postoperative pain management would reduce pain and enhance patient satisfaction, and it also facilitates earlier mobilization and rehabilitation by reducing pain-related complications after surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the analgesic efficacy of intravenous paracetamol and parecoxib when used alone, or in combination. Methods : Sixty American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA physical status I and II adult patients who were scheduled for anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction were included in this study. Patients were allocated into three groups: group I patients received 1g intravenous paracetamol after induction and another 1 g 4 h later, group II received 40 mg parecoxib after induction, while group III received combination of both drugs (paracetamol 1 g and parecoxib 40 mg. Pain during rest and mobility was assessed in the immediate postoperative period, 2 h and 8 h successively using visual analog scale (VAS. Patient satisfaction was rated according to satisfaction score. Results : Total morphine requirements were lower in group III patients (6.9±2.7 mg in comparison to group I patients (12.6±3.6 mg or group II patients (9.8±2.8 mg. The least VAS scores were recorded during knee movement (3.8±1.1 in group III patients compared to group I (6.0±1.8 and group II patients (4.8±1.9. Eight hours postoperatively, group III patients were more satisfied regarding the postoperative pain management. Conclusion : Combination of intravenous paracetamol and parecoxib provided better analgesia and higher patient satisfaction than each drug when used separately.

  8. Confidence building in safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grundfelt, Bertil

    1999-01-01

    Future generations should be adequately protected from damage caused by the present disposal of radioactive waste. This presentation discusses the core of safety and performance assessment: The demonstration and building of confidence that the disposal system meets the safety requirements stipulated by society. The major difficulty is to deal with risks in the very long time perspective of the thousands of years during which the waste is hazardous. Concern about these problems has stimulated the development of the safety assessment discipline. The presentation concentrates on two of the elements of safety assessment: (1) Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and (2) validation and review. Uncertainty is associated both with respect to what is the proper conceptual model and with respect to parameter values for a given model. A special kind of uncertainty derives from the variation of a property in space. Geostatistics is one approach to handling spatial variability. The simplest way of doing a sensitivity analysis is to offset the model parameters one by one and observe how the model output changes. The validity of the models and data used to make predictions is central to the credibility of safety assessments for radioactive waste repositories. There are several definitions of model validation. The presentation discusses it as a process and highlights some aspects of validation methodologies

  9. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-10-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

  10. Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...

  11. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Settlemyer, Bradley W [ORNL; Hodson, Stephen W [ORNL; Kuehn, Jeffery A [ORNL; Poole, Stephen W [ORNL

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  12. Confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.; Naberejnev, D.G.

    2004-01-01

    The present communication addresses the topic of symmetric confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution. This distribution is frequently utilized to characterize inherently positive, continuous random variables that are selected to represent many physical quantities in applied nuclear science and technology. The basic formalism is outlined herein and a conjured numerical example is provided for illustration. It is demonstrated that when the uncertainty reflected in a lognormal probability distribution is large, the use of a confidence interval provides much more useful information about the variable used to represent a particular physical quantity than can be had by adhering to the notion that the mean value and standard deviation of the distribution ought to be interpreted as best value and corresponding error, respectively. Furthermore, it is shown that if the uncertainty is very large a disturbing anomaly can arise when one insists on interpreting the mean value and standard deviation as the best value and corresponding error, respectively. Reliance on using the mode and median as alternative parameters to represent the best available knowledge of a variable with large uncertainties is also shown to entail limitations. Finally, a realistic physical example involving the decay of radioactivity over a time period that spans many half-lives is presented and analyzed to further illustrate the concepts discussed in this communication

  13. Transparency as an element of public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H.K.

    2007-01-01

    In the modern society, there is increasing demands for greater transparency. It has been discussed with respect to corruption or ethics issues in social science. The need for greater openness and transparency in nuclear regulation is widely recognised as public expectations on regulator grow. It is also related to the digital and information technology that enables disclosures of every activity and information of individual and organisation, characterised by numerous 'small brothers'. Transparency has become a key word in this ubiquitous era. Transparency in regulatory activities needs to be understood in following contexts. First, transparency is one of elements to build public confidence in regulator and eventually to achieve regulatory goal of providing the public with satisfaction at nuclear safety. Transparent bases of competence, independence, ethics and integrity of working process of regulatory body would enhance public confidence. Second, activities transmitting information on nuclear safety and preparedness to be accessed are different types of transparency. Communication is an active method of transparency. With increasing use of web-sites, 'digital transparency' is also discussed as passive one. Transparency in regulatory process may be more important than that of contents. Simply providing more information is of little value and specific information may need to be protected for security reason. Third, transparency should be discussed in international, national and organizational perspectives. It has been demanded through international instruments. for each country, transparency is demanded by residents, public, NGOs, media and other stakeholders. Employees also demand more transparency in operating and regulatory organisations. Whistle-blower may appear unless they are satisfied. Fourth, pursuing transparency may cause undue social cost or adverse effects. Over-transparency may decrease public confidence and the process for transparency may also hinder

  14. High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

  15. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-01-01

    The Monte Carlo code MCNP has three different, but correlated, estimators for calculating k eff in nuclear criticality calculations: collision, absorption, and track length estimators. The combination of these three estimators, the three-combined k eff estimator, is shown to be the best k eff estimator available in MCNP for estimating k eff confidence intervals. Theoretically, the Gauss-Markov theorem provides a solid foundation for MCNP's three-combined estimator. Analytically, a statistical study, where the estimates are drawn using a known covariance matrix, shows that the three-combined estimator is superior to the estimator with the smallest variance. Empirically, MCNP examples for several physical systems demonstrate the three-combined estimator's superiority over each of the three individual estimators and its correct coverage rates. Additionally, the importance of MCNP's statistical checks is demonstrated

  16. Exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, David

    2013-10-12

    A method to produce exact simultaneous confidence bands for the empirical cumulative distribution function that was first described by Owen, and subsequently corrected by Jager and Wellner, is the starting point for deriving exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function of any positive random variable. We invert a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity, constructed from the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survivor function, to obtain simultaneous lower and upper bands for the function of interest with specified global confidence level. The method involves calculating a null distribution and associated critical value for each observed sample configuration. However, Noe recursions and the Van Wijngaarden-Decker-Brent root-finding algorithm provide the necessary tools for efficient computation of these exact bounds. Various aspects of the effect of right censoring on these exact bands are investigated, using as illustrations two observational studies of survival experience among non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients and a much larger group of subjects with advanced lung cancer enrolled in trials within the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the merits of the proposed method of deriving simultaneous interval estimates of the survivor function across the entire range of the observed sample. This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. It was begun while the author was visiting the Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, and completed during a subsequent sojourn at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge. The support of both institutions, in addition to that of NSERC and the University of Waterloo, is greatly appreciated.

  17. Confidence Building Strategies in the Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achilles, C. M.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Data from the Phi Delta Kappa Commission on Public Confidence in Education indicate that "high-confidence" schools make greater use of marketing and public relations strategies. Teacher attitudes were ranked first and administrator attitudes second by 409 respondents for both gain and loss of confidence in schools. (MLF)

  18. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-01-01

    A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739

  20. Forum on stakeholder confidence: Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vari, A.; Pescatore, C.

    2006-01-01

    The FSC workshop in Spain provided an important opportunity to carry out an in-depth examination of decision-making processes undertaken in an NEA member country, and to reflect on the evolution that has taken place over time. It offered a well-rounded perspective on the inclusion of stakeholders in decision making, and the atmosphere of the meetings was conducive to an honest and open exchange of ideas. The workshop started with the introduction of two case studies: the earlier attempt in Spain to locate a potential site for a high-level waste (HLW) disposal facility, and the dismantling of the Vandellos-I nuclear power plant. This was followed by two days of presentations and round-table discussions based on the recent COWAM Spain initiative (stemming from the EU-wide project on Community Waste Management), which aims at developing recommendations for institutional arrangements and decision-making processes concerning the siting of waste management facilities in Spain. This article provides a brief summary of the case studies and the COWAM Spain initiative, followed by some of the lessons learnt from an international perspective. (authors)

  1. Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Timothy C

    2009-06-01

    The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

  2. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Buratti

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.

  3. Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

    2007-01-01

    For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations.

  4. Exploring midwives' perception of confidence around facilitating water birth in Western Australia: A qualitative descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Sarah; Hauck, Yvonne L; Bayes, Sarah; Butt, Janice

    2016-02-01

    the option of labouring and/or birthing immersed in warm water has become widely available throughout hospitals in the United Kingdom and Europe over the last two decades. The practice, which also occurs in New Zealand and interstate in Australia, has until recently only been available in Western Australia for women birthing at home with a small publically funded Community Midwifery Program. Despite its popularity and acceptance elsewhere, birth in water has only recently become an option for women attending some public health services in Western Australia. The Clinical Guidelines developed for the local context that support water birth require that the midwives be confident and competent to care for these women. The issue of competency can be addressed with relative ease by maternity care providers; however confidence is rather more difficult to teach, foster and attain. Clinical confidence is an integral element of clinical judgement and promotes patient safety and comfort. For this reason confident midwives are an essential requirement to support the option of water birth in Western Australia. The aim of this study was to capture midwives' perceptions of becoming and being confident in conducting water birth in addition to factors perceived to inhibit and facilitate the development of that confidence. a modified grounded theory methodology with thematic analysis. four public maternity services offering the option of water birth in the Perth metropolitan area. registered midwives employed at one of the four publicly funded maternity services that offered the option of water birth between June 2011 and June 2013. Sixteen midwives were interviewed on a one to one basis. An additional 10 midwives participated in a focus group interview. three main categories emerged from the data analysis: what came before the journey, becoming confident - the journey and staying confident. Each contained between three and five subcategories. Together they depicted how midwives

  5. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2017-11-01

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  6. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  7. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

  8. A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

  9. Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

  10. Differentially Private Confidence Intervals for Empirical Risk Minimization

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Yue; Kifer, Daniel; Lee, Jaewoo

    2018-01-01

    The process of data mining with differential privacy produces results that are affected by two types of noise: sampling noise due to data collection and privacy noise that is designed to prevent the reconstruction of sensitive information. In this paper, we consider the problem of designing confidence intervals for the parameters of a variety of differentially private machine learning models. The algorithms can provide confidence intervals that satisfy differential privacy (as well as the mor...

  11. Bronchoscopic Lung Cryobiopsy Increases Diagnostic Confidence in the Multidisciplinary Diagnosis of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomassetti, Sara; Wells, Athol U; Costabel, Ulrich; Cavazza, Alberto; Colby, Thomas V; Rossi, Giulio; Sverzellati, Nicola; Carloni, Angelo; Carretta, Elisa; Buccioli, Matteo; Tantalocco, Paola; Ravaglia, Claudia; Gurioli, Christian; Dubini, Alessandra; Piciucchi, Sara; Ryu, Jay H; Poletti, Venerino

    2016-04-01

    Surgical lung biopsy is often required for a confident multidisciplinary diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Alternative, less-invasive biopsy methods, such as bronchoscopic lung cryobiopsy (BLC), are highly desirable. To address the impact of BLC on diagnostic confidence in the multidisciplinary diagnosis of IPF. In this cross-sectional study we selected 117 patients with fibrotic interstitial lung disease without a typical usual interstitial pneumonia pattern on high-resolution computed tomography. All cases underwent lung biopsies: 58 were BLC, and 59 were surgical lung biopsy (SLB). Two clinicians, two radiologists, and two pathologists sequentially reviewed clinical-radiologic findings and biopsy results, recording at each step in the process their diagnostic impressions and confidence levels. We observed a major increase in diagnostic confidence after the addition of BLC, similar to SLB (from 29 to 63%, P = 0.0003 and from 30 to 65%, P = 0.0016 of high confidence IPF diagnosis, in the BLC group and SLB group, respectively). The overall interobserver agreement in IPF diagnosis was similar for both approaches (BLC overall kappa, 0.96; SLB overall kappa, 0.93). IPF was the most frequent diagnosis (50 and 39% in the BLC and SLB group, respectively; P = 0.23). After the addition of histopathologic information, 17% of cases in the BLC group and 19% of cases in the SLB group, mostly idiopathic nonspecific interstitial pneumonia and hypersensitivity pneumonitis, were reclassified as IPF. BLC is a new biopsy method that has a meaningful impact on diagnostic confidence in the multidisciplinary diagnosis of interstitial lung disease and may prove useful in the diagnosis of IPF. This study provides a robust rationale for future studies investigating the diagnostic accuracy of BLC compared with SLB.

  12. Confidence in Alternative Dispute Resolution: Experience from Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof Schwenkel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Alternative Dispute Resolution plays a crucial role in the justice system of Switzerland. With the unified Swiss Code of Civil Procedure, it is required that each litigation session shall be preceded by an attempt at conciliation before a conciliation authority. However, there has been little research on conciliation authorities and the public's perception of the authorities. This paper looks at public confidence in conciliation authorities and provides results of a survey conducted with more than 3,400 participants. This study found that public confidence in Swiss conciliation authorities is generally high, exceeds the ratings for confidence in cantonal governments and parliaments, but is lower than confidence in courts.Since the institutional models of the conciliation authorities (meaning the organization of the authorities and the selection of the conciliators differ widely between the 26 Swiss cantons, the influence of the institutional models on public confidence is analyzed. Contrary to assumptions based on New Institutional-ism approaches, this study reports that the institutional models do not impact public confidence. Also, the relationship between a participation in an election of justices of the peace or conciliators and public confidence in these authorities is found to be at most very limited (and negative. Similar to common findings on courts, the results show that general contacts with conciliation authorities decrease public confidence in these institutions whereas a positive experience with a conciliation authority leads to more confidence.The Study was completed as part of the research project 'Basic Research into Court Management in Switzerland', supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF. Christof Schwenkel is a PhD student at the University of Lucerne and a research associate and project manager at Interface Policy Studies. A first version of this article was presented at the 2013 European Group for Public

  13. Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

  14. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Oshins

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  15. Consumer confidence or the business cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...

  16. Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Marc M.

    2016-01-01

    We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

  17. Confidence Interval Approximation For Treatment Variance In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In a random effects model with a single factor, variation is partitioned into two as residual error variance and treatment variance. While a confidence interval can be imposed on the residual error variance, it is not possible to construct an exact confidence interval for the treatment variance. This is because the treatment ...

  18. Aging and Confidence Judgments in Item Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskuilen, Chelsea; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

    2018-01-01

    We examined the effects of aging on performance in an item-recognition experiment with confidence judgments. A model for confidence judgments and response time (RTs; Ratcliff & Starns, 2013) was used to fit a large amount of data from a new sample of older adults and a previously reported sample of younger adults. This model of confidence…

  19. Organic labbeling systems and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar; Daugbjerg, Carsten

    2009-01-01

    A research analysis suggests that a state certification and labelling system creates confidence in organic labelling systems and consequently green consumerism. Danish consumers have higher levels of confidence in the labelling system than consumers in countries where the state plays a minor role in labelling and certification.

  20. Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien eMassoni

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.

  1. Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleitman Sabina

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

  2. Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebreton, Maël; Langdon, Shari; Slieker, Matthijs J; Nooitgedacht, Jip S; Goudriaan, Anna E; Denys, Damiaan; van Holst, Ruth J; Luigjes, Judy

    2018-05-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by combining a perceptual task with a confidence incentivization mechanism. By varying the magnitude and valence (gains or losses) of monetary incentives, we orthogonalized their motivational and affective components. Corroborating theories of rational decision-making and motivation, our results first reveal that the motivational value of incentives improves aspects of confidence accuracy. However, in line with a value-confidence interaction hypothesis, we further show that the affective value of incentives concurrently biases confidence reports, thus degrading confidence accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate that the motivational and affective effects of incentives differentially affect how confidence builds on perceptual evidence. Together, these findings may provide new hints about confidence miscalibration in healthy or pathological contexts.

  3. Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebreton, Maël; Slieker, Matthijs J.; Nooitgedacht, Jip S.; van Holst, Ruth J.; Luigjes, Judy

    2018-01-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by combining a perceptual task with a confidence incentivization mechanism. By varying the magnitude and valence (gains or losses) of monetary incentives, we orthogonalized their motivational and affective components. Corroborating theories of rational decision-making and motivation, our results first reveal that the motivational value of incentives improves aspects of confidence accuracy. However, in line with a value-confidence interaction hypothesis, we further show that the affective value of incentives concurrently biases confidence reports, thus degrading confidence accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate that the motivational and affective effects of incentives differentially affect how confidence builds on perceptual evidence. Together, these findings may provide new hints about confidence miscalibration in healthy or pathological contexts. PMID:29854944

  4. 'Our Care through Our Eyes'. Impact of a co-produced digital educational programme on nurses' knowledge, confidence and attitudes in providing care for children and young people who have self-harmed: a mixed-methods study in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Joseph C; Carter, Tim; Latif, Asam; Horsley, Angela; Cooper, Joanne; Armstrong, Marie; Crew, Jamie; Wood, Damian; Callaghan, Patrick; Wharrad, Heather

    2017-05-04

    (1) To determine the impact of a digital educational intervention on the knowledge, attitudes, confidence and behavioural intention of registered children's nurses working with children and young people (CYP) admitted with self-harm.(2) To explore the perceived impact, suitability and usefulness of the intervention. A digital educational intervention that had been co-produced with CYP service users, registered children's nurses and academics. A prospective, uncontrolled, intervention study with preintervention and postintervention measurement, conducted at a large acute NHS Trust in the UK. From a pool of 251 registered children's nurses and 98 participants were recruited to complete the intervention (response rate=39%). At follow-up, 52% of participants completed the postintervention questionnaire, with 65% (n=33) of those reporting to have completed the digital educational intervention. Attitude towards self-harm in CYP was measured using a 13-item questionnaire; knowledge of self-harm in CYP was measured through an adapted 12-item questionnaire; confidence in different areas of practice was measured through Likert Scale responses; self-efficacy for working with CYP who have self-harmed was measured through an adapted version of the Self-efficacy Towards Helping Scale; clinical behavioural intention was measured by the Continuing Professional Development Reaction Questionnaire. Semistructured interviews were undertaken with a purposive sample of participants. For those who completed the intervention (n=33), improvements were observed in knowledge (effect size, ES: 0.69), confidence, and in some domains relating to attitudes (effectiveness domain-ES: 0.49), and clinical behavioural intention (belief about consequences-ES:0.49; moral norm-ES: 0.43; beliefs about capability-ES: 0.42). Qualitative findings suggest participants experienced skill development, feelings of empowerment and reflection on own practice. The effect of the intervention is promising and

  5. ‘Our Care through Our Eyes’. Impact of a co-produced digital educational programme on nurses’ knowledge, confidence and attitudes in providing care for children and young people who have self-harmed: a mixed-methods study in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Joseph C; Carter, Tim; Latif, Asam; Horsley, Angela; Cooper, Joanne; Armstrong, Marie; Crew, Jamie; Wood, Damian; Callaghan, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Objectives (1) To determine the impact of a digital educational intervention on the knowledge, attitudes, confidence and behavioural intention of registered children’s nurses working with children and young people (CYP) admitted with self-harm. (2) To explore the perceived impact, suitability and usefulness of the intervention. Intervention A digital educational intervention that had been co-produced with CYP service users, registered children’s nurses and academics. Setting A prospective, uncontrolled, intervention study with preintervention and postintervention measurement, conducted at a large acute NHS Trust in the UK. Participants From a pool of 251 registered children’s nurses and 98 participants were recruited to complete the intervention (response rate=39%). At follow-up, 52% of participants completed the postintervention questionnaire, with 65% (n=33) of those reporting to have completed the digital educational intervention. Primary outcome measures Attitude towards self-harm in CYP was measured using a 13-item questionnaire; knowledge of self-harm in CYP was measured through an adapted 12-item questionnaire; confidence in different areas of practice was measured through Likert Scale responses; self-efficacy for working with CYP who have self-harmed was measured through an adapted version of the Self-efficacy Towards Helping Scale; clinical behavioural intention was measured by the Continuing Professional Development Reaction Questionnaire. Semistructured interviews were undertaken with a purposive sample of participants. Results For those who completed the intervention (n=33), improvements were observed in knowledge (effect size, ES: 0.69), confidence, and in some domains relating to attitudes (effectiveness domain-ES: 0.49), and clinical behavioural intention (belief about consequences-ES:0.49; moral norm-ES: 0.43; beliefs about capability-ES: 0.42). Qualitative findings suggest participants experienced skill development, feelings of empowerment

  6. Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve P. Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

    2007-01-01

    For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations. To develop these confidence bounds and test, we first establish that estimators based on Newton steps from n-...

  7. 78 FR 57538 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-19

    ..., Chief, Communication, Planning, and Rulemaking Branch Waste Confidence Directorate, Office of Nuclear...-2012-0246] RIN 3150-AJ20 Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact... disposal (proposed Waste Confidence rule). In addition, the NRC will receive public comment on its...

  8. Using the Reliability Theory for Assessing the Decision Confidence Probability for Comparative Life Cycle Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wei; Larrey-Lassalle, Pyrène; Faure, Thierry; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Roux, Philippe; Mathias, Jean-Denis

    2016-03-01

    Comparative decision making process is widely used to identify which option (system, product, service, etc.) has smaller environmental footprints and for providing recommendations that help stakeholders take future decisions. However, the uncertainty problem complicates the comparison and the decision making. Probability-based decision support in LCA is a way to help stakeholders in their decision-making process. It calculates the decision confidence probability which expresses the probability of a option to have a smaller environmental impact than the one of another option. Here we apply the reliability theory to approximate the decision confidence probability. We compare the traditional Monte Carlo method with a reliability method called FORM method. The Monte Carlo method needs high computational time to calculate the decision confidence probability. The FORM method enables us to approximate the decision confidence probability with fewer simulations than the Monte Carlo method by approximating the response surface. Moreover, the FORM method calculates the associated importance factors that correspond to a sensitivity analysis in relation to the probability. The importance factors allow stakeholders to determine which factors influence their decision. Our results clearly show that the reliability method provides additional useful information to stakeholders as well as it reduces the computational time.

  9. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R

    2010-01-01

    Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.

  11. Confidence building in implementation of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, Hiroyuki

    2004-01-01

    Long-term safety of the disposal system should be demonstrated to the satisfaction of the stakeholders. Convincing arguments are therefore required that instil in the stakeholders confidence in the safety of a particular concept for the siting and design of a geological disposal, given the uncertainties that inevitably exist in its a priori description and in its evolution. The step-wise approach associated with making safety case at each stage is a key to building confidence in the repository development programme. This paper discusses aspects and issues on confidence building in the implementation of HLW disposal in Japan. (author)

  12. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health......This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

  13. Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younes, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ratkiewicz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ressler, J. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-28

    Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

  14. An Exact Confidence Region in Multivariate Calibration

    OpenAIRE

    Mathew, Thomas; Kasala, Subramanyam

    1994-01-01

    In the multivariate calibration problem using a multivariate linear model, an exact confidence region is constructed. It is shown that the region is always nonempty and is invariant under nonsingular transformations.

  15. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  16. Confidence bands for inverse regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo

    2010-01-01

    We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract

  17. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movem...

  18. How do regulators measure public confidence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, A.; Besenyei, E.

    2006-01-01

    The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. - There are some important elements of confidence: visibility, satisfaction, credibility and reputation. The latter can consist of trust, positive image and knowledge of the role the organisation plays. A good reputation is hard to achieve but easy to lose. - There is a need to define what public confidence is and what to measure. The difficulty is that confidence is a matter of perception of the public, so what we try to measure is the perception. - It is controversial how to take into account the results of confidence measurement because of the influence of the context. It is not an exact science, results should be examined cautiously and surveys should be conducted frequently, at least every two years. - Different experiences were explained: - Quantitative surveys - among the general public or more specific groups like the media; - Qualitative research - with test groups and small panels; - Semi-quantitative studies - among stakeholders who have regular contracts with the regulatory body. It is not clear if the results should be shared with the public or just with other authorities and governmental organisations. - Efforts are needed to increase visibility, which is a prerequisite for confidence. - A practical example of organizing an emergency exercise and an information campaign without taking into account the real concerns of the people was given to show how public confidence can be decreased. - We learned about a new method - the so-called socio-drama - which addresses another issue also connected to confidence - the notion of understanding between stakeholders around a nuclear site. It is another way of looking at confidence in a more restricted group. (authors)

  19. Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

    2013-10-23

    The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

  20. [Sources of leader's confidence in organizations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Hisataka

    2006-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the sources of confidence that organization leaders had. As potential sources of the confidence, we focused on fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, reflection on good as well as bad job experiences, and awareness of job experiences in terms of commonality, differentiation, and multiple viewpoints. A questionnaire was administered to 170 managers of Japanese companies. Results were as follows: First, confidence in leaders was more strongly related to fulfillment of expectations made by self and others than reflection on and awareness of job experiences. Second, the confidence was weakly related to internal processing of job experiences, in the form of commonality awareness and reflection on good job experiences. And finally, years of managerial experiences had almost no relation to the confidence. These findings suggested that confidence in leaders was directly acquired from fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, rather than indirectly through internal processing of job experiences. Implications of the findings for leadership training were also discussed.

  1. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-06-01

    independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data

  2. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data

  3. R and D versus confidence in a nuclear energy producing country

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castellnou Barcelo, Josep

    2006-01-01

    The author, Mayor of Vandellos and L'Hospitalet de L'Infant in Spain, addressed the linkages of R and D and stakeholder confidence from the perspective of a mayor. His presentation drew on his experience as mayor of nuclear community in Vandellos and Hospitalet, Spain. The author began by reviewing the economic profile of his community and the chronology of the nuclear program in that area. In discussing factors influencing trust and confidence at the local level, it was noted that safety and security were key, (not negotiable). Economic development and prospects for the future were also seen as important pillars for building public confidence. Cutting across these areas, was a role for R and D and information. It was important to provide information to the public, and to communicate effectively around issues of risk and security. R and D plays a role in supporting these activities to generate confidence. There were active training and education initiatives for elected officials and citizens and other stakeholders, which included local participation in site visits. Education on matters of nuclear energy was provided, seminars and technical visits. The community participated in the COWAM project, to benefit from the exchange of information internationally. In addition, local information committees were created that play an important role in ensuring a flow of information to the general public. The local level has access to experts to support their activities. The presentation profiled the ways in which the municipality retains an active role in overseeing the decommissioning of the local nuclear plant. The presentation reviewed areas in which R and D provided linkages to future well-being of the municipality, through professional training, linkages with universities, promotion of culture and business and economic diversification. Research in social disciplines is found to be important in building confidence of the public

  4. Confidence Intervals: From tests of statistical significance to confidence intervals, range hypotheses and substantial effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.

  5. Maximum-confidence discrimination among symmetric qudit states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jimenez, O.; Solis-Prosser, M. A.; Delgado, A.; Neves, L.

    2011-01-01

    We study the maximum-confidence (MC) measurement strategy for discriminating among nonorthogonal symmetric qudit states. Restricting to linearly dependent and equally likely pure states, we find the optimal positive operator valued measure (POVM) that maximizes our confidence in identifying each state in the set and minimizes the probability of obtaining inconclusive results. The physical realization of this POVM is completely determined and it is shown that after an inconclusive outcome, the input states may be mapped into a new set of equiprobable symmetric states, restricted, however, to a subspace of the original qudit Hilbert space. By applying the MC measurement again onto this new set, we can still gain some information about the input states, although with less confidence than before. This leads us to introduce the concept of sequential maximum-confidence (SMC) measurements, where the optimized MC strategy is iterated in as many stages as allowed by the input set, until no further information can be extracted from an inconclusive result. Within each stage of this measurement our confidence in identifying the input states is the highest possible, although it decreases from one stage to the next. In addition, the more stages we accomplish within the maximum allowed, the higher will be the probability of correct identification. We will discuss an explicit example of the optimal SMC measurement applied in the discrimination among four symmetric qutrit states and propose an optical network to implement it.

  6. Examining Belief and Confidence in Schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Dan W.; Averbeck, Bruno B.; Frith, Chris D.; Shergill, Sukhwinder S.

    2018-01-01

    Background People with psychoses often report fixed, delusional beliefs that are sustained even in the presence of unequivocal contrary evidence. Such delusional beliefs are the result of integrating new and old evidence inappropriately in forming a cognitive model. We propose and test a cognitive model of belief formation using experimental data from an interactive “Rock Paper Scissors” game. Methods Participants (33 controls and 27 people with schizophrenia) played a competitive, time-pressured interactive two-player game (Rock, Paper, Scissors). Participant’s behavior was modeled by a generative computational model using leaky-integrator and temporal difference methods. This model describes how new and old evidence is integrated to form both a playing strategy to beat the opponent and provide a mechanism for reporting confidence in one’s playing strategy to win against the opponent Results People with schizophrenia fail to appropriately model their opponent’s play despite consistent (rather than random) patterns that can be exploited in the simulated opponent’s play. This is manifest as a failure to weigh existing evidence appropriately against new evidence. Further, participants with schizophrenia show a ‘jumping to conclusions’ bias, reporting successful discovery of a winning strategy with insufficient evidence. Conclusions The model presented suggests two tentative mechanisms in delusional belief formation – i) one for modeling patterns in other’s behavior, where people with schizophrenia fail to use old evidence appropriately and ii) a meta-cognitive mechanism for ‘confidence’ in such beliefs where people with schizophrenia overweight recent reward history in deciding on the value of beliefs about the opponent. PMID:23521846

  7. Confidence in Forced-Choice Recognition: What Underlies the Ratings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A.; Hanczakowski, Maciej

    2017-01-01

    Two-alternative forced-choice recognition tests are commonly used to assess recognition accuracy that is uncontaminated by changes in bias. In such tests, participants are asked to endorse the studied item out of 2 presented alternatives. Participants may be further asked to provide confidence judgments for their recognition decisions. It is often…

  8. 77 FR 55833 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-11

    ... on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review and Request for Public Comment on... potential approaches for providing Consumer Confidence Reports (CCR) via electronic delivery. EPA plans to... meeting to give EPA time to process your request. Background Consumer Confidence Reports are a key part of...

  9. Confidence Leak in Perceptual Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D'Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-11-01

    People live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a continuity field in which objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of metacognitive representations. In three experiments, we demonstrated a robust intertask confidence leak-that is, confidence in one's response on a given task or trial influencing confidence on the following task or trial. This confidence leak could not be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Better ability to modulate confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in the prefrontal cortex. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. Stability in the metamemory realism of eyewitness confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin; Johansson, Marcus

    2014-02-01

    The stability of eyewitness confidence judgments over time in regard to their reported memory and accuracy of these judgments is of interest in forensic contexts because witnesses are often interviewed many times. The present study investigated the stability of the confidence judgments of memory reports of a witnessed event and of the accuracy of these judgments over three occasions, each separated by 1 week. Three age groups were studied: younger children (8-9 years), older children (10-11 years), and adults (19-31 years). A total of 93 participants viewed a short film clip and were asked to answer directed two-alternative forced-choice questions about the film clip and to confidence judge each answer. Different questions about details in the film clip were used on each of the three test occasions. Confidence as such did not exhibit stability over time on an individual basis. However, the difference between confidence and proportion correct did exhibit stability across time, in terms of both over/underconfidence and calibration. With respect to age, the adults and older children exhibited more stability than the younger children for calibration. Furthermore, some support for instability was found with respect to the difference between the average confidence level for correct and incorrect answers (slope). Unexpectedly, however, the younger children's slope was found to be more stable than the adults. Compared to the previous research, the present study's use of more advanced statistical methods provides a more nuanced understanding of the stability of confidence judgments in the eyewitness reports of children and adults.

  11. Nearest unlike neighbor (NUN): an aid to decision confidence estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasarathy, Belur V.

    1995-09-01

    The concept of nearest unlike neighbor (NUN), proposed and explored previously in the design of nearest neighbor (NN) based decision systems, is further exploited in this study to develop a measure of confidence in the decisions made by NN-based decision systems. This measure of confidence, on the basis of comparison with a user-defined threshold, may be used to determine the acceptability of the decision provided by the NN-based decision system. The concepts, associated methodology, and some illustrative numerical examples using the now classical Iris data to bring out the ease of implementation and effectiveness of the proposed innovations are presented.

  12. Confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schinkel, Stefan; Marwan, N.; Dimigen, O.; Kurths, J.

    2009-01-01

    In the recent past, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) has gained an increasing interest in various research areas. The complexity measures the RQA provides have been useful in describing and analysing a broad range of data. It is known to be rather robust to noise and nonstationarities. Yet, one key question in empirical research concerns the confidence bounds of measured data. In the present Letter we suggest a method for estimating the confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures. We study the applicability of the suggested method with model and real-life data.

  13. High confidence in falsely recognizing prototypical faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Cristina; Reinke, Victoria; Mathews, Jeffrey; Swart, Alexandra; Wallinger, Stephen

    2018-06-01

    We applied a metacognitive approach to investigate confidence in recognition of prototypical faces. Participants were presented with sets of faces constructed digitally as deviations from prototype/base faces. Participants were then tested with a simple recognition task (Experiment 1) or a multiple-choice task (Experiment 2) for old and new items plus new prototypes, and they showed a high rate of confident false alarms to the prototypes. Confidence and accuracy relationship in this face recognition paradigm was found to be positive for standard items but negative for the prototypes; thus, it was contingent on the nature of the items used. The data have implications for lineups that employ match-to-suspect strategies.

  14. Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaylson Jair da Silveira

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.

  15. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

    2015-12-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.

  16. Nurses' training and confidence on deep venous catheterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liachopoulou, A P; Synodinou-Kamilou, E E; Deligiannidi, P G; Giannakopoulou, M; Birbas, K N

    2008-01-01

    The rough estimation of the education and the self-confidence of nurses, both students and professionals, regarding deep venous catheterization in adult patients, the evaluation of the change in self-confidence of one team of students who were trained with a simulator on deep venous catheterization and the correlation of their self-confidence with their performance recorded by the simulator. Seventy-six nurses and one hundred twenty-four undergraduate students participated in the study. Fourty-four University students took part in a two-day educational seminar and were trained on subclavian and femoral vein paracentesis with a simulator and an anatomical model. Three questionnaires were filled in by the participants: one from nurses, one from students of Technological institutions, while the University students filled in the previous questionnaire before their attendance of the seminar, and another questionnaire after having attended it. Impressive results in improving the participants' self-confidence were recorded. However, the weak correlation of their self-confidence with the score automatically provided by the simulator after each user's training obligates us to be particularly cautious about the ability of the users to repeat the action successfully in a clinical environment. Educational courses and simulators are useful educational tools that are likely to shorten but in no case can efface the early phase of the learning curve in clinical setting, substituting the clinical training of inexperienced users.

  17. Self Confidence Spillovers and Motivated Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banerjee, Ritwik; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Villeval, Marie Claire

    that success when competing in a task increases the performers’ self-confidence and competitiveness in the subsequent task. We also find that such spillovers affect the self-confidence of low-status individuals more than that of high-status individuals. Receiving good news under Affirmative Action, however......Is success in a task used strategically by individuals to motivate their beliefs prior to taking action in a subsequent, unrelated, task? Also, is the distortion of beliefs reinforced for individuals who have lower status in society? Conducting an artefactual field experiment in India, we show...

  18. Improved NN-GM(1,1 for Postgraduates’ Employment Confidence Index Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Postgraduates’ employment confidence index (ECI forecasting can help the university to predict the future trend of postgraduates’ employment. However, the common forecast method based on the grey model (GM has unsatisfactory performance to a certain extent. In order to forecast postgraduates’ ECI efficiently, this paper discusses a novel hybrid forecast model using limited raw samples. Different from previous work, the residual modified GM(1,1 model is combined with the improved neural network (NN in this work. In particullar, the hybrid model reduces the residue of the standard GM(1,1 model as well as accelerating the convergence rate of the standard NN. After numerical studies, the illustrative results are provided to demonstrate the forecast performance of the proposed model. In addition, some strategies for improving the postgraduates’ employment confidence have been discussed.

  19. Registered nurse leadership style and confidence in delegation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccomano, Scott J; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve

    2011-05-01

      Leadership and confidence in delegation are two important explanatory constructs of nursing practice. The relationship between these constructs, however, is not clearly understood. To be successful in their roles as leaders, regardless of their experience, registered nurses (RNs) need to understand how to best delegate. The present study explored and described the relationship between RN leadership styles, demographic variables and confidence in delegation in a community teaching hospital. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, RNs employed in one acute care hospital completed questionnaires that measured leadership style [Path-Goal Leadership Questionnaire (PGLQ)] and confidence in delegating patient care tasks [Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale (CIDS)]. Contrary to expectations, the data did not confirm a relationship between confidence in delegating tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel (UAPs) and leadership style. Nurses who were diploma or associate degree prepared were initially less confident in delegating tasks to UAPs as compared with RNs holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Further, after 5 years of clinical nursing experience, nurses with less educational experience reported more confidence in delegating tasks as compared with RNs with more educational experience. The lack of a relationship between leadership style and confidence in delegating patient care tasks were discussed in terms of the PGLQ classification criteria and hospital unit differences. As suggested by the significant two-way interaction between educational preparation and clinical nursing experience, changes in the nurse's confidence in delegating patient care tasks to UAPs was a dynamic changing variable that resulted from the interplay between amount of educational preparation and years of clinical nursing experience in this population of nurses. Clearly, generalizability of these findings to nurses outside the US is questionable, thus nurse managers must be familiar

  20. Growing confidence, building skills | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    In 2012 Rashid explored the influence of think tanks on policy in Bangladesh, as well as their relationships with international donors and media. In 2014, he explored two-way student exchanges between Canadian and ... his IDRC experience “gave me the confidence to conduct high quality research in social sciences.”.

  1. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Jaeger

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

  2. Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…

  3. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  4. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  5. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  6. To assess whether indoor residual spraying can provide additional protection against clinical malaria over current best practice of long-lasting insecticidal mosquito nets in The Gambia: study protocol for a two-armed cluster-randomised trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parker David

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, there has been mounting interest in scaling-up vector control against malaria in Africa. It needs to be determined if indoor residual spraying (IRS with DDT will provide significant marginal protection against malaria over current best practice of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs and prompt treatment in a controlled trial, given that DDT is currently the most persistent insecticide for IRS. Methods A 2 armed cluster-randomised controlled trial will be conducted to assess whether DDT IRS and LLINs combined provide better protection against clinical malaria in children than LLINs alone in rural Gambia. Each cluster will be a village, or a group of small adjacent villages; all clusters will receive LLINs and half will receive IRS in addition. Study children, aged 6 months to 13 years, will be enrolled from all clusters and followed for clinical malaria using passive case detection to estimate malaria incidence for 2 malaria transmission seasons in 2010 and 2011. This will be the primary endpoint. Exposure to malaria parasites will be assessed using light and exit traps followed by detection of Anopheles gambiae species and sporozoite infection. Study children will be surveyed at the end of each transmission season to estimate the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection and the prevalence of anaemia. Discussion Practical issues concerning intervention implementation, as well as the potential benefits and risks of the study, are discussed. Trial Registration ISRCTN01738840 - Spraying And Nets Towards malaria Elimination (SANTE

  7. Estimating confidence intervals in predicted responses for oscillatory biological models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Peter C; Doyle, Francis J

    2013-07-29

    The dynamics of gene regulation play a crucial role in a cellular control: allowing the cell to express the right proteins to meet changing needs. Some needs, such as correctly anticipating the day-night cycle, require complicated oscillatory features. In the analysis of gene regulatory networks, mathematical models are frequently used to understand how a network's structure enables it to respond appropriately to external inputs. These models typically consist of a set of ordinary differential equations, describing a network of biochemical reactions, and unknown kinetic parameters, chosen such that the model best captures experimental data. However, since a model's parameter values are uncertain, and since dynamic responses to inputs are highly parameter-dependent, it is difficult to assess the confidence associated with these in silico predictions. In particular, models with complex dynamics - such as oscillations - must be fit with computationally expensive global optimization routines, and cannot take advantage of existing measures of identifiability. Despite their difficulty to model mathematically, limit cycle oscillations play a key role in many biological processes, including cell cycling, metabolism, neuron firing, and circadian rhythms. In this study, we employ an efficient parameter estimation technique to enable a bootstrap uncertainty analysis for limit cycle models. Since the primary role of systems biology models is the insight they provide on responses to rate perturbations, we extend our uncertainty analysis to include first order sensitivity coefficients. Using a literature model of circadian rhythms, we show how predictive precision is degraded with decreasing sample points and increasing relative error. Additionally, we show how this method can be used for model discrimination by comparing the output identifiability of two candidate model structures to published literature data. Our method permits modellers of oscillatory systems to confidently

  8. Confident Diagnosis of Bronchobiliary Fistula Using Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Cholangiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karabulut, Nevzat; Cakmak, Vefa; Kiter, Go ksel [Pamukkale University Medical Center, Denizli (Turkmenistan)

    2010-08-15

    We report the utility of contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance cholangiography (MRC) using gadoxetic acid (Gd-EOB-DTPA) in the diagnosis of bronchobiliary fistula associated with liver hydatid cyst. Contrast-enhanced MRC clearly delineated the leakage of contrast agent from the biliary duct and its communication with the bronchial tree. Providing functional information about physiologic or pathologic biliary flow in addition to the display of biliary anatomy, contrast enhanced MRC stands as a robust technique in confidently detecting bronchobiliary fistula and bile leaks

  9. Challenge for reconstruction of public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuura, S.

    2001-01-01

    Past incidents and scandals that have had a large influence on damaging public confidence in nuclear energy safety are presented. Radiation leak on nuclear-powered ship 'Mutsu' (1974), the T.M.I. incident in 1979, Chernobyl accident (1986), the sodium leak at the Monju reactor (1995), fire and explosion at a low level waste asphalt solidification facility (1997), J.C.O. incident (Tokai- MURA, 1999), are so many examples that have created feelings of distrust and anxiety in society. In order to restore public confidence there is no other course but to be prepared for difficulty and work honestly to our fullest ability, with all steps made openly and accountably. (N.C.)

  10. Tables of Confidence Limits for Proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-09-01

    0.972 180 49 0.319 0.332 0,357 175 165 0.964 0.969 0.976 ISO 50 0.325 0.338 0.363 175 166 0.969 0.973 0.980 180 51 0.331 0.344 0.368 175 167 0.973 0.977...0.528 180 18 0.135 0 145 0.164 180 19 0.141 0.151 0.171 ISO 80 0.495 0,508 0.534 347 UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMIT FOR PROPORTIONS CONFIDENCE LEVEL...500 409 0.8401 0.8459 0.8565 500 355 0.7364 0.7434 0.7564 500 356 0.7383 0.7453 0.7582 500 410 0.8420 0.8478 0 8583 500 357 0.7402 0.7472 0.7602 500

  11. Social media sentiment and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Daas, Piet J.H.; Puts, Marco J.H.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...

  12. Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

    The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

  13. "Depressive Realism" assessed via Confidence in Decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, J A

    1996-08-01

    There are two currently influential views regarding the link between cognitive distortions and depression. The first states that depressed individuals perceive the world and themselves with a strong negative bias or distortion, and that mentally healthy individuals perceive the word with relative accuracy. The second ''depressive realism'' camp argues that healthy individuals are positively biased and the depressed are relatively unbiased and hence, more realistic. In the present investigation, subjects suffering from major depression, subjects recovered from major depression, and a group of healthy controls were examined with regard to their confidence in answering each of 99 general knowledge questions. Confidence ratings were analysed separately according to correct or incorrect responses. There were no significant differences in performance (i.e. accuracy of answer between the three groups). When answering correctly, depressed subjects were significantly less confident than healthy control subjects. On answering incorrectly, none of the three groups were significantly different in their confidence ratings. These findings support the cognitive distortion view of depression and provide no evidence of ''depressive realism''.

  14. Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

    2017-02-01

    With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

  15. Frontline nurse managers' confidence and self-efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyk, Jennifer; Siedlecki, Sandra L; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

    2016-05-01

    This study was focused on determining relationships between confidence levels and self-efficacy among nurse managers. Frontline nurse managers have a pivotal role in delivering high-quality patient care while managing the associated costs and resources. The competency and skill of nurse managers affect every aspect of patient care and staff well-being as nurse managers are largely responsible for creating work environments in which clinical nurses are able to provide high-quality, patient-centred, holistic care. A descriptive, correlational survey design was used; 85 nurse managers participated. Years in a formal leadership role and confidence scores were found to be significant predictors of self-efficacy scores. Experience as a nurse manager is an important component of confidence and self-efficacy. There is a need to develop educational programmes for nurse managers to enhance their self-confidence and self-efficacy, and to maintain experienced nurse managers in the role. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. The drone as an additional risk factor due to conditions not provided for in radiological safety at major events; O drone como fator adicional de risco decorrente de condicoes nao previstas na seguranca radiologica em grandes eventos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Gilberto de Jesus

    2015-07-01

    Major international events are potential targets of terrorist actions, seeking instant publicity that events of this magnitude provide, with the intention of causing terror and disseminate its power to a large number of people worldwide. In this context, the critical analysis of additional risk factor linked to procedures and protocols adopted on radiation safety is important. The possibility of unforeseen situations of risk, especially those resulting from the current global technological development, is a fact. Radioactive material can be used in this type of terrorism in a wide range of devices and illicit trafficking of this material is a reality that worries the International Atomic Energy Agency. In the current technological development scenario of the world, the potential occurrence of terrorist acts using drones combined with radioactive material dispersal devices, is real. The recent history of drones incidents presents cases where, despite not having been necessarily terrorist motivation, their circumstances and characteristics favor the occurrence of malicious acts. This paper proposes to alert the need of updating the current security protocols, considering the potential association of this technology with radioactive dispersal devices. (author)

  17. Fisher.py: Fisher Matrix Manipulation and Confidence Contour Plotting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Dan

    2010-10-01

    Fisher.py allows you to combine constraints from multiple experiments (e.g., weak lensing + supernovae) and add priors (e.g., a flat universe) simply and easily. Calculate parameter uncertainties and plot confidence ellipses. Fisher matrix expectations for several experiments are included as calculated by myself (time delays) and the Dark Energy Task Force (WL/SN/BAO/CL/CMB), or provide your own.

  18. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  19. Planning an Availability Demonstration Test with Consideration of Confidence Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Müller

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The full service life of a technical product or system is usually not completed after an initial failure. With appropriate measures, the system can be returned to a functional state. Availability is an important parameter for evaluating such repairable systems: Failure and repair behaviors are required to determine this availability. These data are usually given as mean value distributions with a certain confidence level. Consequently, the availability value also needs to be expressed with a confidence level. This paper first highlights the bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation (BMCS for availability demonstration and inference with confidence intervals based on limited failure and repair data. The BMCS enables point-, steady-state and average availability to be determined with a confidence level based on the pure samples or mean value distributions in combination with the corresponding sample size of failure and repair behavior. Furthermore, the method enables individual sample sizes to be used. A sample calculation of a system with Weibull-distributed failure behavior and a sample of repair times is presented. Based on the BMCS, an extended, new procedure is introduced: the “inverse bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation” (IBMCS to be used for availability demonstration tests with consideration of confidence levels. The IBMCS provides a test plan comprising the required number of failures and repair actions that must be observed to demonstrate a certain availability value. The concept can be applied to each type of availability and can also be applied to the pure samples or distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. It does not require special types of distribution. In other words, for example, a Weibull, a lognormal or an exponential distribution can all be considered as distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. After presenting the IBMCS, a sample calculation will be carried out and the potential of the BMCS and the IBMCS

  20. National Debate and Public Confidence in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindquist, Ted

    2014-01-01

    Ted Lindquist, coordinator of the Association of Swedish Municipalities with Nuclear Facilities (KSO), closed the first day of conferences. He showed what the nuclear landscape was in Sweden, and in particular that through time there has been a rather good support from the population. He explained that the reason could be the confidence of the public in the national debate. On a more local scale, Ted Lindquist showed how overwhelmingly strong the support was in towns where the industry would like to operate long-term storage facilities

  1. Summary of the activities of the ISAM Confidence Building Working Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolinar, G.M.; Batandjieva, B.

    2002-01-01

    During the early stages of the ISAM project confidence building was a relatively new topic in the radioactive waste disposal literature, but it was beginning to receive some attention. Although almost all safety assessment activities are intended to provide a level of confidence in the results of the assessment, considering the activities from the viewpoint of how they contributed to the decision making of various 'audiences' was relatively new. The ISAM project included the Confidence Building Working Group (CBWG) to examine the topic of Confidence Building and this paper provides a summary of the working group findings. (author)

  2. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

  3. Medicare Provider Data - Hospice Providers

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Hospice Utilization and Payment Public Use File provides information on services provided to Medicare beneficiaries by hospice providers. The Hospice PUF...

  4. The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

    2017-06-01

    There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

  5. Additive manufacturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumith, A; Thomas, M; Shah, Z; Coathup, M; Blunn, G

    2018-04-01

    Increasing innovation in rapid prototyping (RP) and additive manufacturing (AM), also known as 3D printing, is bringing about major changes in translational surgical research. This review describes the current position in the use of additive manufacturing in orthopaedic surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:455-60.

  6. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  7. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earp, Brian D; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt "fails"-does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should "failed" replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing "failed" replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings.

  8. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earp, Brian D.; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt “fails”—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should “failed” replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing “failed” replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  9. Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

    2017-01-01

    Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

  10. Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-09-01

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre

  11. Social acceptance and population confidence in telehealth in Quebec.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, Thomas G; Bellemare, Christian A; Bédard, Suzanne K; Lemieux, Renald

    2015-02-21

    Access to healthcare in remote areas is difficult and telehealth could be a promising avenue if accepted by the population. The aim of this study is to assess social acceptance and population confidence in telehealth in the Province of Quebec. We conducted a survey using a questionnaire assessing the social acceptance of and confidence level in telehealth. Two strategies were used: 1) paper questionnaires were sent to two hospitals in Quebec; and 2) online questionnaires were randomly sent by a firm specialized in online survey to a representative sample of the population of the Province of Quebec. Respondents were all residents of the Province of Quebec and 18 years and older. Questions were scored with a four-level Likert scale. A total of 1816 questionnaires were analyzed (229 written and 1,587 online questionnaires). The socio-demographic variables in our samples, especially the online questionnaires, were fairly representative of Quebec's population. Overall, social acceptance scored at 77.71% and confidence level at 65.76%. Both scores were higher in the case of treatment (3 scenarios were proposed) vs. diagnosis (p < 0.05). No difference was found when respondents were asked to respond for themselves and for a member of their family, which demonstrates a true interest in telehealth in Quebec. In addition, we found a significant difference (p < 0.05) between written and online questionnaires regarding social acceptance (80.75% vs. 77.33%) and confidence level (74.84% vs. 64.55%). These differences may be due to social desirability or avidity bias in the written questionnaires. Our results suggest that the population in Quebec encourages the development of telehealth for real time diagnosis and long distance treatment for regions deprived of healthcare professionals.

  12. Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2017-11-01

    Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.

  13. Technology in a crisis of confidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Damodaran, G R

    1979-04-01

    The power that technological progress has given to engineers is examined to see if there has been a corresponding growth in human happiness. A credit/debit approach is discussed, whereby technological advancement is measured against the criteria of social good. The credit side includes medicine, agriculture, and energy use, while the debit side lists pollution, unequal distribution of technology and welfare, modern weaponry, resource depletion, and a possible decline in the quality of life. The present anti-technologists claim the debit side is now predominant, but the author challenges this position by examining the role of technology and the engineer in the society. He sees a need for renewed self-confidence and a sense of direction among engineers, but is generally optimistic that technology and civilization will continue to be intertwined. (DCK)

  14. Considering public confidence in developing regulatory programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, S.J.

    2001-01-01

    In the area of public trust and in any investment, planning and strategy are important. While it is accepted in the United States that an essential part of our mission is to leverage our resources to improving Public Confidence this performance goal must be planned for, managed and measured. Similar to our premier performance goal of Maintaining Safety, a strategy must be developed and integrated with our external stake holders but with internal regulatory staff as well. In order to do that, business is to be conducted in an open environment, the basis for regulatory decisions has to be available through public documents and public meetings, communication must be done in clear and consistent terms. (N.C.)

  15. The Effects of Game-Based Learning on Mathematical Confidence and Performance: High Ability vs. Low Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ku, Oskar; Chen, Sherry Y.; Wu, Denise H.; Lao, Andrew C. C.; Chan, Tak-Wai

    2014-01-01

    Many students possess low confidence toward learning mathematics, which, in turn, may lead them to give up pursuing more mathematics knowledge. Recently, game-based learning (GBL) is regarded as a potential means in improving students' confidence. Thus, this study tried to promote students' confidence toward mathematics by using GBL. In addition,…

  16. Food additives

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... GO About MedlinePlus Site Map FAQs Customer Support Health Topics Drugs & Supplements Videos & Tools Español You Are Here: Home → Medical Encyclopedia → Food additives URL of this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/ ...

  17. Chinese Management Research Needs Self-Confidence but not Over-confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin; Ma, Li

    2018-01-01

    Chinese management research aims to contribute to global management knowledge by offering rigorous and innovative theories and practical recommendations both for managing in China and outside. However, two seemingly opposite directions that researchers are taking could prove detrimental......-confidence, limiting theoretical innovation and practical relevance. Yet going in the other direction of overly indigenous research reflects over-confidence, often isolating the Chinese management research from the mainstream academia and at times, even becoming anti-science. A more integrated approach of conducting...... to the healthy development of Chinese management research. We argue that the two directions share a common ground that lies in the mindset regarding the confidence in the work on and from China. One direction of simply following the American mainstream on academic rigor demonstrates a lack of self...

  18. Teachers and Counselors: Building Math Confidence in Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph M. Furner

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Mathematics teachers need to take on the role of counselors in addressing the math anxious in today's math classrooms. This paper looks at the impact math anxiety has on the future of young adults in our high-tech society. Teachers and professional school counselors are encouraged to work together to prevent and reduce math anxiety. It is important that all students feel confident in their ability to do mathematics in an age that relies so heavily on problem solving, technology, science, and mathematics. It really is a school's obligation to see that their students value and feel confident in their ability to do math, because ultimately a child's life: all decisions they will make and careers choices may be determined based on their disposition toward mathematics. This paper raises some interesting questions and provides some strategies (See Appendix A for teachers and counselors for addressing the issue of math anxiety while discussing the importance of developing mathematically confident young people for a high-tech world of STEM.

  19. Voter model with arbitrary degree dependence: clout, confidence and irreversibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotouhi, Babak; Rabbat, Michael G.

    2014-03-01

    The voter model is widely used to model opinion dynamics in society. In this paper, we propose three modifications to incorporate heterogeneity into the model. We address the corresponding oversimplifications of the conventional voter model which are unrealistic. We first consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the fixation probability, which is the probability that a single node whose state differs from every other node imposes its state on the entire system. In addition, we find the expected fixation time. Then two other extensions to the model are proposed and the motivations behind them are discussed. The first one is confidence, where in addition to the states of neighbors, nodes take their own state into account at each update. We repeat the calculations for the augmented model and investigate the effects of adding confidence to the model. The second proposed extension is irreversibility, where one of the states is given the property that once nodes adopt it, they cannot switch back. This is motivated by applications where, agents take an irreversible action such as seeing a movie, purchasing a music album online, or buying a new product. The dynamics of densities, fixation times and consensus times are obtained.

  20. The confidence in diabetes self-care scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Der Ven, Nicole C W; Weinger, Katie; Yi, Joyce

    2003-01-01

    evaluated in Dutch (n = 151) and U.S. (n = 190) outpatients with type 1 diabetes. In addition to the CIDS scale, assessment included HbA(1c), emotional distress, fear of hypoglycemia, self-esteem, anxiety, depression, and self-care behavior. The Dutch sample completed additional measures on perceived burden......OBJECTIVE: To examine psychometric properties of the Confidence in Diabetes Self-Care (CIDS) scale, a newly developed instrument assessing diabetes-specific self-efficacy in Dutch and U.S. patients with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Reliability and validity of the CIDS scale were...... and importance of self-care. Test-retest reliability was established in a second Dutch sample (n = 62). RESULTS: Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86 for Dutch patients and 0.90 U.S. patients) and test-retest reliability (Spearman's r = 0.85, P

  1. The theory of confidence-building measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darilek, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the theory of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) in two ways. First, it employs a top-down, deductively oriented approach to explain CBM theory in terms of the arms control goals and objectives to be achieved, the types of measures to be employed, and the problems or limitations likely to be encountered when applying CBMs to conventional or nuclear forces. The chapter as a whole asks how various types of CBMs might function during a political - military escalation from peacetime to a crisis and beyond (i.e. including conflict), as well as how they might operate in a de-escalatory environment. In pursuit of these overarching issues, the second section of the chapter raises a fundamental but complicating question: how might the next all-out war actually come aoubt - by unpremeditated escalation resulting from misunderstanding or miscalculation, or by premeditation resulting in a surprise attack? The second section of the paper addresses this question, explores its various implications for CBMs, and suggests the potential contribution of different types of CBMs toward successful resolution of the issues involved

  2. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to open-quotes false alarms.close quotes This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a open-quotes false alarm?close quotes Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  3. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  4. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that they put their trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  5. Measuring the Confidence of 8th Grade Taiwanese Students' Knowledge of Acids and Bases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Tsai, Chun-Yen

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigated whether gender differences were present on the confidence judgments made by 8th grade Taiwanese students on the accuracy of their responses to acid-base test items. A total of 147 (76 male, 71 female) students provided item-specific confidence judgments during a test of their knowledge of acids and bases. Using the…

  6. Early hCG addition to rFSH for ovarian stimulation in IVF provides better results and the cDNA copies of the hCG receptor may be an indicator of successful stimulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paraskevis Dimitris

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A simple, safe and cost-effective treatment protocol in ovarian stimulation is of great importance in IVF practice, especially in the case of previous unsuccessful attempts. hCG has been used as a substitute of LH because of the degree of homology between the two hormones. The main aim of this prospective randomized study was to determine, for the first time, whether low dose hCG added to rFSH for ovarian stimulation could produce better results compared to the addition of rLH in women entering IVF-ET, especially in those women that had previous IVF failures. An additional aim was to find an indicator that would allow us to follow-up ovarian stimulation and, possibly, modify it in order to achieve a better IVF outcome; and that indicator may be the cDNA copies of the LH/hCG receptor. Group A patients (n = 58 were administered hCG and Group B rLH (n = 56 in addition to rFSH in the first days of ovarian stimulation. The number of follicles and oocytes and, most importantly, implantation and pregnancy rates were shown to be statistically significantly higher in the hCG group. This study has also determined, for the first time to our best knowledge, m-RNA for LH/hCG receptors in the lymphocytes of peripheral blood 40 h before ovum pick-up. cDNA levels of the hCG receptor after ovarian stimulation were significantly higher among women receiving hCG compared to those receiving LH. In addition, higher levels were encountered among women with pregnancy compared to those without, although this was not statistically significant due to the small number of pregnancies. It seems that hCG permits a highly effective and more stable occupancy of rLH/hCG receptors and gives more follicles and more oocytes. The determination of cDNA copies could be, in the future, a marker during ovulation induction protocols and of course a predictor for the outcome of ART in the special subgroup of patients with previous failures.

  7. Fluctuating confidence: the dynamic consequences of true/false affirmatives and denials on how a listener appraises their personal past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jolee; Bayantemur, Sharon Y; Seecharan, Sasha; Unger, Leslie D; Hellgren, Johanna; Stone, Charles B

    2018-08-01

    The present study examined the mnemonic consequences of true/false denials and affirmatives on how a listener appraises their personal past. To this end, participants (listeners) rated the extent to which they were confident certain events occurred during their childhood. They rated these events both before and after a confederate (speaker) denied or affirmed the occurrence of four different childhood events each, for a total of eight "rehearsed" events. For each set (denials and affirmatives) of events, half were true and half were false. In turn, this created four types of events (two each): true denials, true affirmatives, false denials, and false affirmatives. Additionally, half of the participants were told that the speaker was provided independent information about the veracity of the event's occurrence ("expert" condition). Overall, listeners were less confident in the occurrence of false denial events, but more so when they believed the speaker to be more knowledgeable of the listeners memories, more confident in false affirmative events and, counter intuitively, more confident in the occurrence of true denial events. These results underscore the importance of a nuanced approach to the mnemonic consequences of true and false denials and affirmations in the course of social interactions.

  8. Machine learning classification with confidence: application of transductive conformal predictors to MRI-based diagnostic and prognostic markers in depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nouretdinov, Ilia; Costafreda, Sergi G; Gammerman, Alexander; Chervonenkis, Alexey; Vovk, Vladimir; Vapnik, Vladimir; Fu, Cynthia H Y

    2011-05-15

    There is rapidly accumulating evidence that the application of machine learning classification to neuroimaging measurements may be valuable for the development of diagnostic and prognostic prediction tools in psychiatry. However, current methods do not produce a measure of the reliability of the predictions. Knowing the risk of the error associated with a given prediction is essential for the development of neuroimaging-based clinical tools. We propose a general probabilistic classification method to produce measures of confidence for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. We describe the application of transductive conformal predictor (TCP) to MRI images. TCP generates the most likely prediction and a valid measure of confidence, as well as the set of all possible predictions for a given confidence level. We present the theoretical motivation for TCP, and we have applied TCP to structural and functional MRI data in patients and healthy controls to investigate diagnostic and prognostic prediction in depression. We verify that TCP predictions are as accurate as those obtained with more standard machine learning methods, such as support vector machine, while providing the additional benefit of a valid measure of confidence for each prediction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gariela Gonçalves

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about

  10. Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D. Morey

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

  11. Balance confidence is related to features of balance and gait in individuals with chronic stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schinkel-Ivy, Alison; Wong, Jennifer S.; Mansfield, Avril

    2016-01-01

    Reduced balance confidence is associated with impairments in features of balance and gait in individuals with sub-acute stroke. However, an understanding of these relationships in individuals at the chronic stage of stroke recovery is lacking. This study aimed to quantify relationships between balance confidence and specific features of balance and gait in individuals with chronic stroke. Participants completed a balance confidence questionnaire and clinical balance assessment (quiet standing, walking, and reactive stepping) at 6 months post-discharge from inpatient stroke rehabilitation. Regression analyses were performed using balance confidence as a predictor variable and quiet standing, walking, and reactive stepping outcome measures as the dependent variables. Walking velocity was positively correlated with balance confidence, while medio-lateral centre of pressure excursion (quiet standing) and double support time, step width variability, and step time variability (walking) were negatively correlated with balance confidence. This study provides insight into the relationships between balance confidence and balance and gait measures in individuals with chronic stroke, suggesting that individuals with low balance confidence exhibited impaired control of quiet standing as well as walking characteristics associated with cautious gait strategies. Future work should identify the direction of these relationships to inform community-based stroke rehabilitation programs for individuals with chronic stroke, and determine the potential utility of incorporating interventions to improve balance confidence into these programs. PMID:27955809

  12. Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ndhlovu, T

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...

  13. nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Temechegn

    Altogether the test is made up of 40 items covering students' ability to recall definition ... confidence interval within which student have confidence in their choice of the .... is mentioned these equilibrium systems come to memory of the learner.

  14. Peer Helpers: Encouraging Kids to Confide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Gail; Reid, Kelley

    1997-01-01

    In peer-helping programs, a professional counselor or teacher trains a group of students who then help other students by listening, providing information, and referring them to others with the necessary expertise. Peer helpers can help improve the school climate by contributing to its health and security. Since 1979, Seattle's Natural Helpers…

  15. confidence in teaching integrated pest management (ipm)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2333147

    The exploration for environmental friendly alternatives to pesticides use in agriculture has ... mechanical killing of pests; biological methods that include natural enemies; and ... Intervention through extension is especially important in furthering the ..... service providers to prioritize training and flow of information on advances ...

  16. Sorption databases for increasing confidence in performance assessment - 16053

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, Anke; Brendler, Vinzenz; Nebelung, Cordula; Payne, Timothy E.; Brasser, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    World-wide activities focus on the remediation of radioactively contaminated sites. One common aim is to deliver a more profound chemical base for risk assessment, namely all those physico-chemical phenomena governing the contamination plume development in time and space. Coupled transport codes able to tackle this challenge have to simplify the resulting very complex reaction pattern. To do so in an adequate way requires extending the knowledge about retardation and mobilisation phenomena and the underlying basic processes and interactions (e.g. physisorption, chemisorption, surface precipitation). Interactions at the solid-liquid interface can be described by complementary approaches, the empirical K d concept and the mechanistic Surface Complexation Models (SCM). K d 's are used by most reactive transport and risk assessment codes due to the straightforward numerics involved. In addition, the K d concept is often the only feasible option for complex solid phases. However, the K d concept is a rather simplistic approach. Many very different basic physicochemical phenomena are subsumed in just one conditional parameter. Therefore, extrapolating K d values may yield very large uncertainties. SCM account adsorption of ions on surface sites as complexation reaction comparable to complexation in solution. The electrical charge at the surface is determined by the chemical reactions of the mineral functional groups, including acid-base reactions and formation of ion pairs and coordinative complexes. The required parameters are site-independent and applicable despite large variations in geochemical conditions. This presents a high potential to increase confidence in safety analysis and risk assessment studies (performance assessment). The mechanistic description of sorption processes with SCM allows a thermodynamically consistent calculation of the species distribution between liquid and solid phase combined with more reliable inter- and extrapolations. However, this

  17. Simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function

    OpenAIRE

    Dudek, Anna; Gocwin, Maciej; Leskow, Jacek

    2006-01-01

    The construction of the simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function is considered. The Nelson--Aalen estimator is used. The simultaneous confidence bands based on bootstrap methods are presented. Two methods of construction of such confidence bands are proposed. The weird bootstrap method is used for resampling. Simulations are made to compare the actual coverage probability of the bootstrap and the asymptotic simultaneous confidence bands. It is shown that the equal--tai...

  18. Additive Manufacturing Infrared Inspection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaddy, Darrell; Nettles, Mindy

    2015-01-01

    The Additive Manufacturing Infrared Inspection Task started the development of a real-time dimensional inspection technique and digital quality record for the additive manufacturing process using infrared camera imaging and processing techniques. This project will benefit additive manufacturing by providing real-time inspection of internal geometry that is not currently possible and reduce the time and cost of additive manufactured parts with automated real-time dimensional inspections which deletes post-production inspections.

  19. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...

  20. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  1. Joint confidence region estimation for area under ROC curve and Youden index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Jingjing; Tian, Lili

    2014-03-15

    In the field of diagnostic studies, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) serves as an overall measure of a biomarker/diagnostic test's accuracy. Youden index, defined as the overall correct classification rate minus one at the optimal cut-off point, is another popular index. For continuous biomarkers of binary disease status, although researchers mainly evaluate the diagnostic accuracy using AUC, for the purpose of making diagnosis, Youden index provides an important and direct measure of the diagnostic accuracy at the optimal threshold and hence should be taken into consideration in addition to AUC. Furthermore, AUC and Youden index are generally correlated. In this paper, we initiate the idea of evaluating diagnostic accuracy based on AUC and Youden index simultaneously. As the first step toward this direction, this paper only focuses on the confidence region estimation of AUC and Youden index for a single marker. We present both parametric and non-parametric approaches for estimating joint confidence region of AUC and Youden index. We carry out extensive simulation study to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods. In the end, we apply the proposed methods to a real data set. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Protein Correlation Profiles Identify Lipid Droplet Proteins with High Confidence*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahmer, Natalie; Hilger, Maximiliane; Kory, Nora; Wilfling, Florian; Stoehr, Gabriele; Mann, Matthias; Farese, Robert V.; Walther, Tobias C.

    2013-01-01

    Lipid droplets (LDs) are important organelles in energy metabolism and lipid storage. Their cores are composed of neutral lipids that form a hydrophobic phase and are surrounded by a phospholipid monolayer that harbors specific proteins. Most well-established LD proteins perform important functions, particularly in cellular lipid metabolism. Morphological studies show LDs in close proximity to and interacting with membrane-bound cellular organelles, including the endoplasmic reticulum, mitochondria, peroxisomes, and endosomes. Because of these close associations, it is difficult to purify LDs to homogeneity. Consequently, the confident identification of bona fide LD proteins via proteomics has been challenging. Here, we report a methodology for LD protein identification based on mass spectrometry and protein correlation profiles. Using LD purification and quantitative, high-resolution mass spectrometry, we identified LD proteins by correlating their purification profiles to those of known LD proteins. Application of the protein correlation profile strategy to LDs isolated from Drosophila S2 cells led to the identification of 111 LD proteins in a cellular LD fraction in which 1481 proteins were detected. LD localization was confirmed in a subset of identified proteins via microscopy of the expressed proteins, thereby validating the approach. Among the identified LD proteins were both well-characterized LD proteins and proteins not previously known to be localized to LDs. Our method provides a high-confidence LD proteome of Drosophila cells and a novel approach that can be applied to identify LD proteins of other cell types and tissues. PMID:23319140

  3. Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionut Bebu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT, and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates.

  4. Confidence in communicating with patients with cancer mediates the relationship between rehabilitation therapists' autistic-like traits and perceived difficulty in communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashibara, Chinatsu; Inagaki, Masatoshi; Fujimori, Maiko; Higuchi, Yuji; Fujiwara, Masaki; Terada, Seishi; Okamura, Hitoshi; Uchitomi, Yosuke; Yamada, Norihito

    2018-01-21

    Recently, rehabilitation therapists have become involved in cancer rehabilitation; however, no communication skills training that increases the ability to provide emotional support for cancer patients has been developed for rehabilitation therapists. In addition, no study has examined associations between rehabilitation therapists' communication skills and their level of autistic-like traits (ALT), which are in-born characteristics including specific communication styles and difficulty communicating with patients. In this study, we aimed to investigate whether confidence in communicating with patients mitigates communication difficulties experienced by rehabilitation therapists who have high levels of ALT. Rehabilitation therapists who treat patients with cancer completed self-administered postal questionnaires anonymously. Scores were obtained on the Autism-Spectrum Quotient short form, confidence in communication, and communication difficulties. We used covariance structure analyses to test hypothetical models, and confirmed that confidence in communication mediates the relationship between ALT and perceived communication difficulties. Participants included 1,343 respondents (49.6%). Autism-Spectrum Quotient scores were positively correlated with communication difficulties (r = 0.16, p confidence in communication in the fit model. However, higher confidence in creating a supportive atmosphere was associated with more difficulty in communication (r = 0.16, p Communication difficulty was linked to rehabilitation therapists' ALTs. By increasing confidence in areas of communication other than creation of a supportive atmosphere, ALT-related difficulties in communication may be ameliorated. Confidence to create supportive environments correlated positively with difficulty. Communication skills training to increase confidence in communication for rehabilitation therapists should be developed with vigilance regarding ALT levels.

  5. Breakaway technique training as a means of increasing confidence in managing aggression in neuroscience nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamont, Scott; Brunero, Scott; Bailey, Alanah; Woods, Karen

    2012-08-01

    The objective of this paper was to evaluate breakaway technique training with neuroscience nursing staff as a measure of increased confidence and safety in managing aggression. A quasi experimental design was used in a sample of neuroscience nursing staff (n=31), participating in 2×1h breakaway technique workshops. The workshops consisted of supervised skills training in safe breakaway techniques. A pre- and postintervention-matched questionnaire measuring confidence and safety around managing aggressive patients, and exposure to and confidence in dealing with breakaways, was self administered. Statistically significant increases in confidence and safety in working with aggressive patients, and confidence levels for safe breakaways were reported. Qualitative comments demonstrated a desire for ongoing skills workshops. This study provides early evidence of the importance of incorporating breakaway training into existing training programs which aim to minimise and manage aggression and violence in generalist settings.

  6. What does confidence mean to people who have had a stroke? A qualitative interview study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Jane; Lincoln, Nadina Berrice; Preston, Jenny; Logan, Pip

    2014-11-01

    To explore the meaning of confidence to stroke patients after stroke in order to inform the development of a measurement tool. Qualitative interview study using interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). Ten stroke survivors were purposively selected from those participating in a multi-centre randomised trial of outdoor mobility rehabilitation. Interviews about confidence were conducted in participants' homes, audio recorded and transcribed verbatim. Six themes emerged from the analysis. These were loss of identity, fear, social confidence, role confidence, mastering skill and attitudes and beliefs. Loss of identity was particularly evident in the early stages of stroke recovery. Fear was a barrier to regaining confidence and was associated with avoidance behaviours. Lack of social confidence was a common problem which appeared difficult to resolve. Life roles motivated participants to re-engage in daily life activities. Personal attitudes and beliefs, combined with the attitudes of significant others, contributed to personal feelings of competence. This study provides a coherent definition of the meaning of confidence through the experiences of stroke survivors. Being successful in gradually re-engaging in activities, including social activities and life roles helped to establish a positive self-belief. The influence of others, such as family and friends reinforce self-beliefs. Confidence and self-efficacy appear to be a similar construct. However, participants in this study also identified a relationship between confidence and self-esteem. The findings indicate that all six themes need to be included in a confidence measure to encompass the meaning of confidence as described by participants with stroke. © The Author(s) 2014.

  7. Nuclear energy: Moving ahead with confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeVine, J.C. Jr.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents a perspective on the future of nuclear generated electrical power in this country, from the viewpoint of the electric utility industry. Also discussed is an Advanced Light Water Reactor (ALWR) Program established by the Electric Power Research Institute to provide leadership to utility industry efforts to revive the nuclear power option in the United States. The author describes the scope and structure of the EPRI program, the institute's vision of the main design characteristics of the ALWR, and thoughts about how the conceptual work now in progress can lead to the construction of an actual power plant

  8. Sustainable nuclear development and public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gagarinski, A.

    2000-01-01

    This report discusses the objective preconditions, which would lead the world community to acceptance of nuclear energy. The following conditions deserve special emphasis: (a) Demographic growth, resulting in the increase of energy demand and promoting the understanding of the fact, that the world energy resources are limited and all possible energy sources, including nuclear ones, should be used. (b) Development of the 'third-world' countries, creating additional energy demand, which cannot be met without nuclear power. (c) Global (and influencing the plans of each country) need of availability and acceptable costs together with reliability and safety of energy supply, and, consequently, the interest to energy sources diversification in order to eliminate the dependence of fossil fuels import. The paper considers the ways to solve this strategic task. Its solution could take a long time (several decades) and should be properly perceived by the generation of specialists now starting their career in nuclear science and industry. Now it is a good time for the new generation of nuclear specialists to solve this problem - the large-scale NPP development is not yet needed, there is a large accumulated experience and perspective ideas, and there is enough time to analyze the problems in detail, propose and prepare the solutions and convince the general public, that these solutions are correct. And then the next phase of nuclear energy development would be based not only on correct technical solutions, but also on a favourable social environment. (authors)

  9. Individuals with high obsessive-compulsive tendencies or undermined confidence rely more on external proxies to access their internal states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongming; Wang, Mengyun; Miao, Xiaocui; Li, Yijuan; Hitchman, Glenn; Yuan, Zhen

    2017-03-01

    The Seeking Proxies for Internal States (SPIS) hypothesis predicts that obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is associated with a deficit in subjective convictions, which may lead to a reliance on external substitutes for the perceptions of an individual's internal states. Two well-designed studies were performed for the present work that adopted a false bio-feedback procedure in a muscle tension task to examine the SPIS hypothesis. The false bio-feedback paradigm was used to investigate our hypothesis. NeXus-10 Mark II hardware and V2011 BioTrace + software (Mind Media B.V., Herten, Netherlands) were utilized to measure the muscle tension of the flexor carpiulnaris muscle, which characterized the target's internal state. In addition, false EMG changes were recorded and displayed on a computer monitor and were considered external proxies. Study 1 demonstrated that the participants with high obsessive-compulsive (OC) tendencies were more affected by the false bio-feedback and exhibited lower confidence in their judgments regarding their muscle tension compared with the participants with low OC tendencies. These findings indicate that subjects with high OC tendencies were more influenced by self-perception effects. In contrast, the subjects in the undermined confidence group in Study 2 were more easily influenced by the false bio-feedback compared with the control group, which suggests that the subjects in the undermined confidence group were more affected by self-perception effects. We did not combine the undermined confidence with OC tendencies or OCD symptoms in our paradigm to investigate their joint effects on self-perception. Our findings provide further evidence that supports the SPIS hypothesis, which indicates that OC tendencies and the confidence in an individual's recognition of internal states appear to have similar effects on the assessment of internal states and reliance on proxies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

    2015-06-01

    Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Decision time and confidence predict choosers' identification performance in photographic showups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagana, Anna; Sporer, Siegfried L.; Wixted, John T.

    2018-01-01

    In vast contrast to the multitude of lineup studies that report on the link between decision time, confidence, and identification accuracy, only a few studies looked at these associations for showups, with results varying widely across studies. We therefore set out to test the individual and combined value of decision time and post-decision confidence for diagnosing the accuracy of positive showup decisions using confidence-accuracy characteristic curves and Bayesian analyses. Three-hundred-eighty-four participants viewed a stimulus event and were subsequently presented with two showups which could be target-present or target-absent. As expected, we found a negative decision time-accuracy and a positive post-decision confidence-accuracy correlation for showup selections. Confidence-accuracy characteristic curves demonstrated the expected additive effect of combining both postdictors. Likewise, Bayesian analyses, taking into account all possible target-presence base rate values showed that fast and confident identification decisions were more diagnostic than slow or less confident decisions, with the combination of both being most diagnostic for postdicting accurate and inaccurate decisions. The postdictive value of decision time and post-decision confidence was higher when the prior probability that the suspect is the perpetrator was high compared to when the prior probability that the suspect is the perpetrator was low. The frequent use of showups in practice emphasizes the importance of these findings for court proceedings. Overall, these findings support the idea that courts should have most trust in showup identifications that were made fast and confidently, and least in showup identifications that were made slowly and with low confidence. PMID:29346394

  12. Effects of postidentification feedback on eyewitness identification and nonidentification confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L

    2004-04-01

    Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency.

  13. Effects of confidence and anxiety on flow state in competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehn, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Confidence and anxiety are important variables that underlie the experience of flow in sport. Specifically, research has indicated that confidence displays a positive relationship and anxiety a negative relationship with flow. The aim of this study was to assess potential direct and indirect effects of confidence and anxiety dimensions on flow state in tennis competition. A sample of 59 junior tennis players completed measures of Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2d and Flow State Scale-2. Following predictive analysis, results showed significant positive correlations between confidence (intensity and direction) and anxiety symptoms (only directional perceptions) with flow state. Standard multiple regression analysis indicated confidence as the only significant predictor of flow. The results confirmed a protective function of confidence against debilitating anxiety interpretations, but there were no significant interaction effects between confidence and anxiety on flow state.

  14. Motivation, Leadership, Empowerment and Confidence: Their Relation with Nurses’ Burnout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V.; Fradelos, Evangelos C.; Kleisiaris, Christos F.; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A.; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Discussion: Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Conclusion: Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels. PMID:25685089

  15. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-01-01

    MCNP has three different, but correlated, estimators for Calculating k eff in nuclear criticality calculations: collision, absorption, and track length estimators. The combination of these three estimators, the three-combined k eff estimator, is shown to be the best k eff estimator available in MCNP for estimating k eff confidence intervals. Theoretically, the Gauss-Markov Theorem provides a solid foundation for MCNP's three-combined estimator. Analytically, a statistical study, where the estimates are drawn using a known covariance matrix, shows that the three-combined estimator is superior to the individual estimator with the smallest variance. The importance of MCNP's batch statistics is demonstrated by an investigation of the effects of individual estimator variance bias on the combination of estimators, both heuristically with the analytical study and emprically with MCNP

  16. Metacognition and Confidence: Comparing Math to Other Academic Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanna eErickson

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  17. Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence: their relation with nurses' burnout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V; Fradelos, Evangelos C; Kleisiaris, Christos F; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-12-01

    Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels.

  18. Symbol addition by monkeys provides evidence for normalized quantity coding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingstone, Margaret S.; Pettine, Warren W.; Srihasam, Krishna; Moore, Brandon; Morocz, Istvan A.; Lee, Daeyeol

    2014-01-01

    Weber’s law can be explained either by a compressive scaling of sensory response with stimulus magnitude or by a proportional scaling of response variability. These two mechanisms can be distinguished by asking how quantities are added or subtracted. We trained Rhesus monkeys to associate 26 distinct symbols with 0–25 drops of reward, and then tested how they combine, or add, symbolically represented reward magnitude. We found that they could combine symbolically represented magnitudes, and they transferred this ability to a novel symbol set, indicating that they were performing a calculation, not just memorizing the value of each combination. The way they combined pairs of symbols indicated neither a linear nor a compressed scale, but rather a dynamically shifting, relative scaling. PMID:24753600

  19. Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

    2018-02-01

    Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

  20. 10. national workshop of the NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Kamishan; )

    2017-01-01

    The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) was established by the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) in the year 2000. It fosters learning about stakeholder dialogue and ways to develop shared confidence, informed consent and acceptance of radioactive waste (RW) management solutions. A 'stakeholder' is defined as anyone with a role to play or an interest in the process of deciding about RW management. The FSC provides a setting for direct stakeholder exchange in an atmosphere of mutual respect and learning. Participating in this forum are government policy and regulatory officials, R and D specialists, implementers, and industry representatives from NEA member countries. Together they analyse, document and provide recommendations on today's and tomorrow's processes for embedding waste management programs into a socio-political decision-making context. The FSC convenes annually for a regular meeting and is often complemented by an FSC national workshop. The regular meetings include lectures and topical case study sessions to share experiences. FSC national workshops are organised in volunteer NEA member countries to bring together all the national stakeholders to provide a neutral ground for discussion, dialogue and advancement of knowledge on long-term radioactive waste management. FSC members and other international actors involved in RW management are invited to learn about the host country's waste management program and provide support by giving an external reflection built up on their own experience. They are often supplemented by a half a day devoted to a community visit (potential or selected site for a repository) or open event (public meeting or debate). 2016 marked the 10. national workshop of the FSC which took place in Switzerland. It focused on 'Bridging Gaps - Developing Sustainable Inter-generational Decision-making in Radioactive Waste Management'. The workshop provided a forum for the participants from around the world to learn from

  1. The Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and Identification Accuracy: A New Synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wixted, John T; Wells, Gary L

    2017-05-01

    The U.S. legal system increasingly accepts the idea that the confidence expressed by an eyewitness who identified a suspect from a lineup provides little information as to the accuracy of that identification. There was a time when this pessimistic assessment was entirely reasonable because of the questionable eyewitness-identification procedures that police commonly employed. However, after more than 30 years of eyewitness-identification research, our understanding of how to properly conduct a lineup has evolved considerably, and the time seems ripe to ask how eyewitness confidence informs accuracy under more pristine testing conditions (e.g., initial, uncontaminated memory tests using fair lineups, with no lineup administrator influence, and with an immediate confidence statement). Under those conditions, mock-crime studies and police department field studies have consistently shown that, for adults, (a) confidence and accuracy are strongly related and (b) high-confidence suspect identifications are remarkably accurate. However, when certain non-pristine testing conditions prevail (e.g., when unfair lineups are used), the accuracy of even a high-confidence suspect ID is seriously compromised. Unfortunately, some jurisdictions have not yet made reforms that would create pristine testing conditions and, hence, our conclusions about the reliability of high-confidence identifications cannot yet be applied to those jurisdictions. However, understanding the information value of eyewitness confidence under pristine testing conditions can help the criminal justice system to simultaneously achieve both of its main objectives: to exonerate the innocent (by better appreciating that initial, low-confidence suspect identifications are error prone) and to convict the guilty (by better appreciating that initial, high-confidence suspect identifications are surprisingly accurate under proper testing conditions).

  2. Determination of confidence limits for experiments with low numbers of counts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraft, R.P.; Burrows, D.N.; Nousek, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    Two different methods, classical and Bayesian, for determining confidence intervals involving Poisson-distributed data are compared. Particular consideration is given to cases where the number of counts observed is small and is comparable to the mean number of background counts. Reasons for preferring the Bayesian over the classical method are given. Tables of confidence limits calculated by the Bayesian method are provided for quick reference. 12 refs

  3. Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

  4. Confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Zachary; Felker, Sydney

    2012-06-01

    On tasks that require the mental rotation of 3-dimensional figures, males typically exhibit higher accuracy than females. Using the most common measure of mental rotation (i.e., the Mental Rotations Test), we investigated whether individual variability in confidence mediates this sex difference in mental rotation performance. In each of four experiments, the sex difference was reliably elicited and eliminated by controlling or manipulating participants' confidence. Specifically, confidence predicted performance within and between sexes (Experiment 1), rendering confidence irrelevant to the task reliably eliminated the sex difference in performance (Experiments 2 and 3), and manipulating confidence significantly affected performance (Experiment 4). Thus, confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance and hence the sex difference appears to be a difference of performance rather than ability. Results are discussed in relation to other potential mediators and mechanisms, such as gender roles, sex stereotypes, spatial experience, rotation strategies, working memory, and spatial attention.

  5. Coping skills: role of trait sport confidence and trait anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cresswell, Scott; Hodge, Ken

    2004-04-01

    The current research assesses relationships among coping skills, trait sport confidence, and trait anxiety. Two samples (n=47 and n=77) of international competitors from surf life saving (M=23.7 yr.) and touch rugby (M=26.2 yr.) completed the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Sport Anxiety Scale. Analysis yielded significant correlations amongst trait anxiety, sport confidence, and coping. Specifically confidence scores were positively associated with coping with adversity scores and anxiety scores were negatively associated. These findings support the inclusion of the personality characteristics of confidence and anxiety within the coping model presented by Hardy, Jones, and Gould, Researchers should be aware that confidence and anxiety may influence the coping processes of athletes.

  6. Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

    2012-11-01

    Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  7. Building confidence and credibility amid growing model and computing complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, K. J.; Mahajan, S.; Veneziani, C.; Kennedy, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    As global Earth system models are developed to answer an ever-wider range of science questions, software products that provide robust verification, validation, and evaluation must evolve in tandem. Measuring the degree to which these new models capture past behavior, predict the future, and provide the certainty of predictions is becoming ever more challenging for reasons that are generally well known, yet are still challenging to address. Two specific and divergent needs for analysis of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) model - but with a similar software philosophy - are presented to show how a model developer-based focus can address analysis needs during expansive model changes to provide greater fidelity and execute on multi-petascale computing facilities. A-PRIME is a python script-based quick-look overview of a fully-coupled global model configuration to determine quickly if it captures specific behavior before significant computer time and expense is invested. EVE is an ensemble-based software framework that focuses on verification of performance-based ACME model development, such as compiler or machine settings, to determine the equivalence of relevant climate statistics. The challenges and solutions for analysis of multi-petabyte output data are highlighted from the aspect of the scientist using the software, with the aim of fostering discussion and further input from the community about improving developer confidence and community credibility.

  8. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    OpenAIRE

    Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

    2014-01-01

    While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

  9. Preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching school violence prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandakai, Tina L; King, Keith A

    2002-01-01

    To examine preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention and the potential effect of violence-prevention training on preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. Six Ohio universities participated in the study. More than 800 undergraduate and graduate students completed surveys. Violence-prevention training, area of certification, and location of student- teaching placement significantly influenced preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention. Violence-prevention training positively influences preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. The results suggest that such training should be considered as a requirement for teacher preparation programs.

  10. The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings.

  11. A Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp improves trainee confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Catherine K; Tannous, Paul; DeWitt, Elizabeth; Farias, Michael; Mansfield, Laura; Ronai, Christina; Schidlow, David; Sanders, Stephen P; Lock, James E; Newburger, Jane W; Brown, David W

    2016-12-01

    Introduction New paediatric cardiology trainees are required to rapidly assimilate knowledge and gain clinical skills to which they have limited or no exposure during residency. The Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp (PCBC) at Boston Children's Hospital was designed to provide incoming fellows with an intensive exposure to congenital cardiac pathology and a broad overview of major areas of paediatric cardiology practice. The PCBC curriculum was designed by core faculty in cardiac pathology, echocardiography, electrophysiology, interventional cardiology, exercise physiology, and cardiac intensive care. Individual faculty contributed learning objectives, which were refined by fellowship directors and used to build a programme of didactics, hands-on/simulation-based activities, and self-guided learning opportunities. A total of 16 incoming fellows participated in the 4-week boot camp, with no concurrent clinical responsibilities, over 2 years. On the basis of pre- and post-PCBC surveys, 80% of trainees strongly agreed that they felt more prepared for clinical responsibilities, and a similar percentage felt that PCBC should be offered to future incoming fellows. Fellows showed significant increase in their confidence in all specific knowledge and skills related to the learning objectives. Fellows rated hands-on learning experiences and simulation-based exercises most highly. We describe a novel 4-week-long boot camp designed to expose incoming paediatric cardiology fellows to the broad spectrum of knowledge and skills required for the practice of paediatric cardiology. The experience increased trainee confidence and sense of preparedness to begin fellowship-related responsibilities. Given that highly interactive activities were rated most highly, boot camps in paediatric cardiology should strongly emphasise these elements.

  12. What is 'confidence' and what could affect it?: A qualitative study of mothers who are hesitant about vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendel-Van Alstyne, Judith A; Nowak, Glen J; Aikin, Ann L

    2017-09-09

    Public confidence in immunization is critical to maintaining high vaccine-coverage rates needed to protect individuals and communities from vaccine-preventable diseases. Recent attention has been placed on factors influencing confidence in vaccination in the US and globally, but comprehensive understanding of what drives or hinders confidence in childhood vaccination is yet to be reached. As such, assessing parents' confidence in childhood vaccination and the ways in which educational materials affect confidence is needed. We sought to (1) learn how mothers who are hesitant about vaccination characterize confidence in health-related products for young children, including the recommended vaccines; (2) gain insights on what influences vaccine confidence beliefs; and (3) assess whether short, education materials affect parental confidence in childhood vaccinations. Eight moderator-lead focus groups (n=61), stratified by socioeconomic status, were undertaken with mothers of children 5years of age of less who are hesitant about vaccines. Four of the groups were held in the Philadelphia, PA area and four were held in the San Francisco/Oakland, CA area. Three educational material pairs, each consisting of a 2-3min video and an infographic poster about an immunization-related topic, were reviewed and assessed for influence on confidence. Qualitative data analysis was used to identify overarching themes across the focus groups. Themes, insights, and illustrative quotes were identified and provided for each of the major discussion areas: primary health concerns for young children; confidence beliefs and perceptions, including for recommended vaccines; facilitators and barriers to confidence; and reactions to the educational materials. Results provide helpful insights into how mothers who are hesitant about vaccines perceive confidence in childhood vaccines and health-related products, suggestions for how to improve confidence, and support for the value and use of short

  13. Government policy, research and stakeholder confidence - Current Trends in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letourneau, Carmel

    2006-01-01

    The author addressed the topic of government Policy, research and stakeholder Confidence from the perspective of government policy makers in Canada. The presentation reviewed the question: why carry out more research into methods of long-term management of nuclear fuel waste? In addressing this question, the author provided some perspectives that were expressed by the Canadian public, since reflected in the Final Study of management approaches led by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), an organization set up by the nuclear industry to study options for the long-term management of nuclear fuel waste. The Final Study was submitted to the federal Minister of Natural Resources in November 2005 as required under the Nuclear Fuel Waste Act. The NWMO's Final Study emphasized the important role of continuous learning, a key element in the NWMO's recommendation of Adaptive Phased Management. It was reported that the NWMO work had identified many reasons to carry out further research. Regardless of the management approach adopted, activities to manage radioactive waste will continue for a very long time. Any management program could be expected to apply the best practice available at the time. A program that will evolve over a long period of time will have many opportunities for improvements to increase performance, enhance effectiveness, and address rising societal concerns. It was suggested that, to realize these benefits, there needs to be a vibrant and robust research and development effort during management program development and execution, a period that will last many generations, and enable implementers to adapt to a changing environment. Among the reasons put forward for continuing research were, to: - Embody the principles of continuous learning which encourages standards of excellence and integrity; - Prepare for facility siting, design, licensing, development and operations to improve designs, minimize costs, enhance schedules, and reduce

  14. Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2017-05-09

    Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.

  15. Experiential Education Builds Student Self-Confidence in Delivering Medication Therapy Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy M. Parker

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To determine the impact of advanced pharmacy practice experiences (APPE on student self-confidence related to medication therapy management (MTM, fourth-year pharmacy students were surveyed pre/post APPE to: identify exposure to MTM learning opportunities, assess knowledge of the MTM core components, and assess self-confidence performing MTM services. An anonymous electronic questionnaire administered pre/post APPE captured demographics, factors predicted to impact student self-confidence (Grade point average (GPA, work experience, exposure to MTM learning opportunities, MTM knowledge and self-confidence conducting MTM using a 5-point Likert scale (1 = Not at all Confident; 5 = Extremely Confident. Sixty-two students (26% response rate responded to the pre-APPE questionnaire and n = 44 (18% to the post-APPE. Over 90% demonstrated MTM knowledge and 68.2% completed MTM learning activities. APPE experiences significantly improved students’ overall self-confidence (pre-APPE = 3.27 (0.85 SD, post-APPE = 4.02 (0.88, p < 0.001. Students engaging in MTM learning opportunities had higher self-confidence post-APPE (4.20 (0.71 vs. those not reporting MTM learning opportunities (3.64 (1.08, p = 0.05. Post-APPE, fewer students reported MTM was patient-centric or anticipated engaging in MTM post-graduation. APPE learning opportunities increased student self-confidence to provide MTM services. However, the reduction in anticipated engagement in MTM post-graduation and reduction in sensing the patient-centric nature of MTM practice, may reveal a gap between practice expectations and reality.

  16. Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2017-01-01

    Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This “confidence weighting” implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain’s learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences. PMID:28439014

  17. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  18. Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this

  19. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  20. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  1. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  2. A scale for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Lans, van der I.A.; Renes, R.J.; Frewer, L.J.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scale to measure general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Results from exploratory and confirmatory analyses indicate that general consumer confidence in the safety of food consists of two distinct dimensions, optimism and pessimism,

  3. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  4. Monitoring consumer confidence in food safety: an exploratory study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Frewer, L.J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Wit, de W.; Timmers, J.C.M.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract: In response to the potential for negative economic and societal effects resulting from a low level of consumer confidence in food safety, it is important to know how confidence is potentially influenced by external events. The aim of this article is to describe the development of a monitor

  5. Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

    2009-01-01

    A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

  6. Music educators : their artistry and self-confidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lion-Slovak, Brigitte; Stöger, Christine; Smilde, Rineke; Malmberg, Isolde; de Vugt, Adri

    2013-01-01

    How does artistic identity influence the self-confidence of music educators? What is the interconnection between the artistic and the teacher identity? What is actually meant by artistic identity in music education? What is a fruitful environment for the development of artistic self-confidence of

  7. To protect and serve: Restoring public confidence in the SAPS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Persistent incidents of brutality, criminal behaviour and abuse of authority by members of South Africa's police agencies have serious implications for public trust and confidence in the police. A decline in trust and confidence in the police is inevitably harmful to the ability of the government to reduce crime and improve public ...

  8. Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill

    2003-01-01

    This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

  9. Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R.; Sigman, Mariano

    2014-01-01

    Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

  10. On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2018-02-01

    Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Shujie; Yang, Lijian; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2012-01-01

    Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.

  12. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuel Santos

    Full Text Available Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system.

  13. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system.

  14. Data assimilation method based on the constraints of confidence region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yong; Li, Siming; Sheng, Yao; Wang, Luheng

    2018-03-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a distinguished data assimilation method that is widely used and studied in various fields including methodology and oceanography. However, due to the limited sample size or imprecise dynamics model, it is usually easy for the forecast error variance to be underestimated, which further leads to the phenomenon of filter divergence. Additionally, the assimilation results of the initial stage are poor if the initial condition settings differ greatly from the true initial state. To address these problems, the variance inflation procedure is usually adopted. In this paper, we propose a new method based on the constraints of a confidence region constructed by the observations, called EnCR, to estimate the inflation parameter of the forecast error variance of the EnKF method. In the new method, the state estimate is more robust to both the inaccurate forecast models and initial condition settings. The new method is compared with other adaptive data assimilation methods in the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models under various model parameter settings. The simulation results show that the new method performs better than the competing methods.

  15. What are effective techniques for improving public confidence or restoring lost confidence in a regulator?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harbitz, O.; Isaksson, R.

    2006-01-01

    The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. The following list contains thoughts related to restoring lost confidence: - hard, long lasting event; - strategy: maximum transparency; - to listen, be open, give phone numbers etc. - ways to rebuild trust: frequent communication, being there, open and transparent; - don't be too defensive; if things could be done better, say it; - technical staff and public affair staff together from the beginning - answer all questions; - classifications, actions, instructions that differ much from the earlier ones must be well explained and motivated - and still cause a lot of problems; - things may turn out to be political; - communicative work in an early stage saves work later; - communication experts must be working shoulder to shoulder with other staff; On handling emergencies in general, some recipes proposed are: - better to over react than to under react; - do not avoid extreme actions: hit hard, hit fast; - base your decisions in strict principles; - first principle: public safety first; - when you are realizing plant A, you must have a plant B in your pocket: - be transparent - from the beginning; - crisis communication: early, frequent etc - people need to see political leaders, someone who is making decisions - technical experts are needed but are not enough. On how to involve stakeholders and the public in decision making, recommendations are: - new kind of thinking -. demanding for a organisation; - go to local level, meet local people, speak language people understand, you have to start from the very beginning - introducing yourself tell who you are and why you are there. (authors)

  16. Family Health Histories and Their Impact on Retirement Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zick, Cathleen D; Mayer, Robert N; Smith, Ken R

    2015-08-01

    Retirement confidence is a key social barometer. In this article, we examine how personal and parental health histories relate to working-age adults' feelings of optimism or pessimism about their overall retirement prospects. This study links survey data on retirement planning with information on respondents' own health histories and those of their parents. The multivariate models control for the respondents' socio-demographic and economic characteristics along with past retirement planning activities when estimating the relationships between family health histories and retirement confidence. Retirement confidence is inversely related to parental history of cancer and cardiovascular disease but not to personal health history. In contrast, retirement confidence is positively associated with both parents being deceased. As members of the public become increasingly aware of how genetics and other family factors affect intergenerational transmission of chronic diseases, it is likely that the link between family health histories and retirement confidence will intensify. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. Forum of stakeholder confidence - Phase II of program of work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Bars, Yves

    2006-01-01

    The author welcomed the Forum for Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) participants and introduced the day's meetings that would investigate the possible contributions and conditions for RD and D to support stakeholder confidence. In his introductory remarks, Mr. Le Bars reviewed the intent of this topical discussion and its contribution to the Phase 2 Programme of Work for FSC. Observations were drawn from previous FSC work concerning the evolving requirements for stakeholder involvement that require a new culture within the organizations. It is recognized that each actor must respect certain values and abilities, and have the capacity to communicate, to learn from the public and to adapt. In particular, it was suggested that the role of the expert in the decision-making process has changed, and there is a need to restore credibility to the voice of experts to support the processes relating to radioactive waste management. Mr. Le Bars spoke about the changing role of the 'expert' and increasing demands from the public to be informed, active participants in decision-making processes. As societal expectations have evolved over the years, there is less willingness to give the expert the legitimacy to decide, or the expert working solely with the decision-maker. Rather, there are growing demands for public policies to be defined and implemented through decision-making processes that also invite stakeholder participation, as another important category of actors. Thus, the decision-making process can be viewed as now involving three parties: the public, the experts and decision-makers. Research must be positioned in this context. Research must be part of the process, structure, behaviour and debate. It is meant to be introduced in the process as contributor to the project definition, by providing scientific background. Further, it is best undertaken through an adaptive behaviour, carried out by institutions with a clearly defined and communicated role. In setting

  18. Investigating the psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ertekin Pinar, Sukran; Yildirim, Gulay; Sayin, Neslihan

    2018-05-01

    The high level of psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem solving skills of midwife candidates play an important role in increasing the quality of health care and in fulfilling their responsibilities towards patients. This study was conducted to investigate the psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates. It is a convenience descriptive quantitative study. Students who study at Health Sciences Faculty in Turkey's Central Anatolia Region. Midwife candidates (N = 270). In collection of data, the Personal Information Form, Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults (PRSA), Self-Confidence Scale (SCS), and Problem Solving Inventory (PSI) were used. There was a negatively moderate-level significant relationship between the Problem Solving Inventory scores and the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores (r = -0.619; p = 0.000), and between Self-Confidence Scale scores (r = -0.524; p = 0.000). There was a positively moderate-level significant relationship between the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores and the Self-Confidence Scale scores (r = 0.583; p = 0.000). There was a statistically significant difference (p Problem Solving Inventory and the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores according to getting support in a difficult situation. As psychological resilience and self-confidence levels increase, problem-solving skills increase; additionally, as self-confidence increases, psychological resilience increases too. Psychological resilience, self-confidence, and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates in their first-year of studies are higher than those who are in their fourth year. Self-confidence and psychological resilience of midwife candidates aged between 17 and 21, self-confidence and problem solving skills of residents of city centers, psychological resilience of those who perceive their monthly income as sufficient are high

  19. Spatio-Spectral Method for Estimating Classified Regions with High Confidence using MODIS Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katiyal, Anuj; Rajan, Dr K S

    2014-01-01

    In studies like change analysis, the availability of very high resolution (VHR)/high resolution (HR) imagery for a particular period and region is a challenge due to the sensor revisit times and high cost of acquisition. Therefore, most studies prefer lower resolution (LR) sensor imagery with frequent revisit times, in addition to their cost and computational advantages. Further, the classification techniques provide us a global estimate of the class accuracy, which limits its utility if the accuracy is low. In this work, we focus on the sub-classification problem of LR images and estimate regions of higher confidence than the global classification accuracy within its classified region. The spectrally classified data was mined into spatially clustered regions and further refined and processed using statistical measures to arrive at local high confidence regions (LHCRs), for every class. Rabi season MODIS data of January 2006 and 2007 was used for this study and the evaluation of LHCR was done using the APLULC 2005 classified data. For Jan-2007, the global class accuracies for water bodies (WB), forested regions (FR) and Kharif crops and barren lands (KB) were 89%, 71.7% and 71.23% respectively, while the respective LHCRs had accuracies of 96.67%, 89.4% and 80.9% covering an area of 46%, 29% and 14.5% of the initially classified areas. Though areas are reduced, LHCRs with higher accuracies help in extracting more representative class regions. Identification of such regions can facilitate in improving the classification time and processing for HR images when combined with the more frequently acquired LR imagery, isolate pure vs. mixed/impure pixels and as training samples locations for HR imagery

  20. Political factors in the development and implementation of technology-based confidence-building measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinberg, G.M.

    1989-01-01

    The second half of the 20th century has been characterized by the continuous development and improvement of weapons of mass destruction, including strategic bombers, missiles, chemical and biological agents, and of course, a variety of nuclear weapons. In contrast to the massive change in military capabilities brought about by the rapid development of science and technology, international relations is still dominated by relations between sovereign nation states and characterized by distrust and narrow interests. At the same time that scientific developments created the foundation for the nuclear arms race, however the scientific and technical community has also sought some antidotes. Technology-based confidence building measures (TBCBMS), designed to reduce international conflict and to prevent nuclear war, have been proposed by scientists from the US and the USSR. These TBCBMS have taken a number of forms such as cooperative research and development programs, joint panels and meetings of professional societies, and specially dedicated international forums. These have provided a meeting ground for the exchange of views among scientists from many different countries. In addition, a number of more direct forms of TBCBMS, such as satellite-based observation systems and IAEA nuclear safeguards, have national technical means of verification. More recently, there have been a number of proposals to apply many of these technologies to verification of conventional force reduction, arms control, and other confidence-building measures in context of regional conflicts in the Third World. An International Satellite Monitoring Agency has bee proposed to develop space-based technologies such as observation satellites to increase stability and prevent the outbreak of accidental war in regional contexts such as the Middle East

  1. Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

    2017-01-01

    Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broten, G S; Wood, H C [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network`s ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor`s response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

  3. A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

    2016-04-01

    Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith

  4. Confidence-Based Data Association and Discriminative Deep Appearance Learning for Robust Online Multi-Object Tracking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Seung-Hwan; Yoon, Kuk-Jin

    2018-03-01

    Online multi-object tracking aims at estimating the tracks of multiple objects instantly with each incoming frame and the information provided up to the moment. It still remains a difficult problem in complex scenes, because of the large ambiguity in associating multiple objects in consecutive frames and the low discriminability between objects appearances. In this paper, we propose a robust online multi-object tracking method that can handle these difficulties effectively. We first define the tracklet confidence using the detectability and continuity of a tracklet, and decompose a multi-object tracking problem into small subproblems based on the tracklet confidence. We then solve the online multi-object tracking problem by associating tracklets and detections in different ways according to their confidence values. Based on this strategy, tracklets sequentially grow with online-provided detections, and fragmented tracklets are linked up with others without any iterative and expensive association steps. For more reliable association between tracklets and detections, we also propose a deep appearance learning method to learn a discriminative appearance model from large training datasets, since the conventional appearance learning methods do not provide rich representation that can distinguish multiple objects with large appearance variations. In addition, we combine online transfer learning for improving appearance discriminability by adapting the pre-trained deep model during online tracking. Experiments with challenging public datasets show distinct performance improvement over other state-of-the-arts batch and online tracking methods, and prove the effect and usefulness of the proposed methods for online multi-object tracking.

  5. Confidence with and Barriers to Serious Illness Communication: A National Survey of Hospitalists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, Leah B; Greenwald, Jeff; Caponi, Bartho; Doshi, Ami; Epstein, Howard; Frank, Jeff; Lindenberger, Elizabeth; Marzano, Nick; Mills, Lynnea M; Razzak, Rab; Risser, James; Anderson, Wendy G

    2017-09-01

    To describe the concerns, confidence, and barriers of practicing hospitalists around serious illness communication. Hospitalist physicians are optimally positioned to provide primary palliative care, yet their experiences in serious illness communication are not well described. Web-based survey, conducted in May 2016. The survey link was distributed via email to 4000 members of the Society of Hospital Medicine. The 39-item survey assessed frequency of concerns about serious illness communication, confidence for common tasks, and barriers using Likert-type scales. It was developed by the authors based on prior work, a focus group, and feedback from pilot respondents. We received 332 completed surveys. On most or every shift, many participants reported having concerns about a patient's or family's understanding of prognosis (53%) or the patient's code status (63%). Most participants were either confident or very confident in discussing goals of care (93%) and prognosis (87%). Fewer were confident or very confident in responding to patients or families who had not accepted the seriousness of an illness (59%) or in managing conflict (50%). Other frequently cited barriers were lack of time, lack of prior discussions in the outpatient setting, unrealistic prognostic expectations from other physicians, limited institutional support, and difficulty finding records of previous discussions. Our results suggest opportunities to improve hospitalists' ability to lead serious illness communication by increasing the time hospitalists have for discussions, improving documentation systems and communication between inpatient and outpatient clinicians, and targeted training on challenging communication scenarios.

  6. 'Asking the hard questions': Improving midwifery students' confidence with domestic violence screening in pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rachel; Wight, Raechel; Homer, Caroline S E

    2018-01-01

    Domestic violence is a global public health issue. Midwives are ideally placed to screen for, and respond to, disclosure of domestic violence. Qualified midwives and midwifery students report a lack of preparedness and low levels of confidence in working with women who disclose domestic violence. This paper reports the findings from an education intervention designed to increase midwifery students' confidence in working with pregnant women who disclose domestic violence. An authentic practice video and associated interactive workshop was developed to bring the 'woman' into the classroom and to provide role-modelling of exemplary midwifery practice in screening for and responding to disclosure of domestic violence. The findings demonstrated that students' confidence increased in a number of target areas, such as responding appropriately to disclosure and assisting women with access to support. Students' confidence increased in areas where responses needed to be individualised as opposed to being able to be scripted. Students appreciated visual demonstration (video of authentic practice) and having the opportunity to practise responding to disclosures through experiential learning. Given the general lack of confidence reported by both midwives and students of midwifery in this area of practice, this strategy may be useful in supporting midwives, students and other health professionals in increasing confidence in working with women who are experiencing domestic violence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa B Gilkey

    Full Text Available To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents.We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children's vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR, varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents' mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status.A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15% or delay (27%. Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.63 as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76-0.86. Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40-1.68, varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42-1.66, and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23-1.42.Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children.

  8. A pilot survey of junior doctors' confidence in tasks related to broad aspects of competence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Deborah J; Skaarup, Anne Marie; Ringsted, Charlotte

    2005-01-01

    Medical authorities and society are recommending that postgraduate medical education prepare physicians for broad aspects of competence. The most effective ways to prepare physicians for these are not known. The aim of this pilot study was to survey junior doctors' growth in confidence in different...... useful in facilitating learning of the tasks. These results suggest that growth of confidence in the physician roles proceeds at different rates during postgraduate training. Additional research is needed to identify effective ways for junior doctors to learn broad aspects of competence. Longitudinal...

  9. The NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence - its Activities and Main Lessons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lebars, Yves; Pescatore, Claudio

    2003-01-01

    The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) was created under a mandate from the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) to facilitate the sharing of international experience in addressing the societal dimension of radioactive waste management. It explores means of ensuring an effective dialogue with the public, and considers ways to strengthen confidence in decision-making processes. The Forum was launched in August 2000, in Paris, with an international workshop. This addressed a variety of topics ranging from evolving participatory democracy, stakeholder identity, and trust in the institutional frarnework, to the role of open dialogue in all aspects of radioactive waste management. Two additional workshops were held in 2001 and 2002, respectively in Finland and Canada. In the Finnish meeting, representatives from all stakeholder groups - from the local to the national level - reviewed the sequence of decisions that ultimately led to the Parliament's approval, in May 2001, of siting a geological repository in the municipality of Eurajoki. The workshop was preceded by an encounter with the municipality representatives, where the values, as well as the policies and the economic standing of the community, were discussed. Feedback was provided to the workshop by experts in public management, strategic decision, community development and social psychology. The Canadian workshop, held in October 2002, allowed to review the recent national experience in the radioactive waste management programme. In March 2001, an agreement was reached between the Government and three communities in southern Ontario to clean up and locally manage radioactive waste from past uranium processing. In June 2002 the Nuclear Fuel Waste Act became law, enabling Canada to move effectively towards a solution for the long-term management of 'spent fuel waste'. At the workshop, three key areas of inquiry were examined: what are the social concerns at play in radioactive waste management; how

  10. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  11. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Document Server

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC), in 2007." (1 page)

  12. Confidence-building measures in the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin Huasun

    1991-01-01

    The regional confidence-building, security and disarmament issues in the Asia-Pacific region, and in particular, support to non-proliferation regime and establishing nuclear-weapon-free zones are reviewed

  13. Building Supervisory Confidence--A Key to Transfer of Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byham, William C.; Robinson, James

    1977-01-01

    A training concept is described which suggests that efforts toward maintaining and/or building the confidence of the participants in supervisory training programs can increase their likelihood of using the skills on the job. (TA)

  14. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Meyniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems

  15. Confidence limits for small numbers of events in astrophysical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehrels, N.

    1986-01-01

    The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.

  16. Non-Asymptotic Confidence Sets for Circular Means

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hotz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The mean of data on the unit circle is defined as the minimizer of the average squared Euclidean distance to the data. Based on Hoeffding’s mass concentration inequalities, non-asymptotic confidence sets for circular means are constructed which are universal in the sense that they require no distributional assumptions. These are then compared with asymptotic confidence sets in simulations and for a real data set.

  17. Learning style and confidence: an empirical investigation of Japanese employees

    OpenAIRE

    Yoshitaka Yamazaki

    2012-01-01

    This study aims to examine how learning styles relate to employees' confidence through a view of Kolb's experiential learning theory. For this aim, an empirical investigation was conducted using the sample of 201 Japanese employees who work for a Japanese multinational corporation. Results illustrated that the learning style group of acting orientation described a significantly higher level of job confidence than that of reflecting orientation, whereas the two groups of feeling and thinking o...

  18. The Development of Confidence Limits for Fatigue Strength Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SUTHERLAND, HERBERT J.; VEERS, PAUL S.

    1999-01-01

    Over the past several years, extensive databases have been developed for the S-N behavior of various materials used in wind turbine blades, primarily fiberglass composites. These data are typically presented both in their raw form and curve fit to define their average properties. For design, confidence limits must be placed on these descriptions. In particular, most designs call for the 95/95 design values; namely, with a 95% level of confidence, the designer is assured that 95% of the material will meet or exceed the design value. For such material properties as the ultimate strength, the procedures for estimating its value at a particular confidence level is well defined if the measured values follow a normal or a log-normal distribution. Namely, based upon the number of sample points and their standard deviation, a commonly-found table may be used to determine the survival percentage at a particular confidence level with respect to its mean value. The same is true for fatigue data at a constant stress level (the number of cycles to failure N at stress level S(sub 1)). However, when the stress level is allowed to vary, as with a typical S-N fatigue curve, the procedures for determining confidence limits are not as well defined. This paper outlines techniques for determining confidence limits of fatigue data. Different approaches to estimating the 95/95 level are compared. Data from the MSU/DOE and the FACT fatigue databases are used to illustrate typical results

  19. Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.

  20. Students' confidence in the ability to transfer basic math skills in introductory physics and chemistry courses at a community college

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Reginald

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the confidence levels that community college students have in transferring basic math skills to science classes, as well as any factors that influence their confidence levels. This study was conducted with 196 students at a community college in central Mississippi. The study was conducted during the month of November after all of the students had taken their midterm exams and received midterm grades. The instrument used in this survey was developed and validated by the researcher. The instrument asks the students to rate how confident they were in working out specific math problems and how confident they were in working problems using those specific math skills in physics and chemistry. The instrument also provided an example problem for every confidence item. Results revealed that students' demographics were significant predictors in confidence scores. Students in the 18-22 year old range were less confident in solving math problems than others. Students who had retaken a math course were less confident than those who had not. Chemistry students were less confident in solving math problems than those in physics courses. Chemistry II students were less confident than those in Chemistry I and Principals of Chemistry. Students were least confident in solving problems involving logarithms and the most confident in solving algebra problems. In general, students felt that their math courses did not prepare them for the math problems encountered in science courses. There was no significant difference in confidence between students who had completed their math homework online and those who had completed their homework on paper. The researcher recommends that chemistry educators find ways of incorporating more mathematics in their courses especially logarithms and slope. Furthermore, math educators should incorporate more chemistry related applications to math class. Results of hypotheses testing, conclusions, discussions, and

  1. Breastfeeding peer support: are there additional benefits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Deborah; Haining, Shona; Day, Ann

    2009-12-01

    Anecdotal discussion among breastfeeding peer supporters and the infant-feeding co-ordinator suggested that breastfeeding peer support provided by breastfeeding peer supporters may offer benefits to breastfeeding women and their families other than increasing breastfeeding initiation and sustainability. The aim of this research was to determine whether there was evidence to support this. The research team used focus groups to obtain information from 16 local women who had received breastfeeding peer support from breastfeeding peer supporters. The key themes that emerged were--improved mental health, increased self-esteem or confidence, parenting skills, improved family diet, breastfeeding sustainability and poor hospital experience.The findings suggest that breastfeeding peer supporters supporting mothers to breastfeed, with the intention of increasing both breastfeeding rates and sustainability, may have additional benefits in several aspects of families' lives. Breastfeeding peer support may play an important role in helping to attain targets such as reducing obesity and postnatal depression.

  2. Number of core samples: Mean concentrations and confidence intervals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, L.; Cromar, R.D.; Wilmarth, S.R.; Heasler, P.G.

    1995-01-01

    This document provides estimates of how well the mean concentration of analytes are known as a function of the number of core samples, composite samples, and replicate analyses. The estimates are based upon core composite data from nine recently sampled single-shell tanks. The results can be used when determining the number of core samples needed to ''characterize'' the waste from similar single-shell tanks. A standard way of expressing uncertainty in the estimate of a mean is with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The authors investigate how the width of a 95% CI on the mean concentration decreases as the number of observations increase. Specifically, the tables and figures show how the relative half-width (RHW) of a 95% CI decreases as the number of core samples increases. The RHW of a CI is a unit-less measure of uncertainty. The general conclusions are as follows: (1) the RHW decreases dramatically as the number of core samples is increased, the decrease is much smaller when the number of composited samples or the number of replicate analyses are increase; (2) if the mean concentration of an analyte needs to be estimated with a small RHW, then a large number of core samples is required. The estimated number of core samples given in the tables and figures were determined by specifying different sizes of the RHW. Four nominal sizes were examined: 10%, 25%, 50%, and 100% of the observed mean concentration. For a majority of analytes the number of core samples required to achieve an accuracy within 10% of the mean concentration is extremely large. In many cases, however, two or three core samples is sufficient to achieve a RHW of approximately 50 to 100%. Because many of the analytes in the data have small concentrations, this level of accuracy may be satisfactory for some applications

  3. Changes in the Linguistic Confidence of Primary and Secondary Students in Catalonia: A Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretxa, Vanessa; Comajoan, Llorenç; Ubalde, Josep; Vila, F. Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Previous research in first (L1) and second language (L2) acquisition has provided evidence that linguistic confidence is a key construct that can explain linguistic behaviour. In this paper, we apply previous research in the socio-contextual model of L2 learning to data from Catalonia. More specifically, the paper investigates linguistic…

  4. ICT and Play in Preschool: Early Childhood Teachers' Beliefs and Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolopoulou, Kleopatra; Gialamas, Vasilis

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated early childhood teachers' beliefs about information and communications technology (ICT) and play in preschool, as well as their confidence in integrating ICT in the classroom. A 28-item questionnaire was compiled and administered to 190 early childhood teachers in Greece. Although ICT play (which can provide learning…

  5. Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

    2018-01-01

    Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

  6. Increasing Teacher Confidence in Teaching and Technology Use through Vicarious Experiences within an Environmental Education Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, Jana; Weiser, Brenda; Smith, Donna

    2016-01-01

    Providing teacher candidates opportunities to engage in experiences modeling effective technology integration could improve confidence/comfort in using technology and support skill development and transfer. A purposeful sample of 424 candidates in an educational technology course was administered the Technology and Teaching Efficacy Scale to…

  7. WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grech, Victor

    2018-03-01

    The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broten, G.S.; Wood, H.C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network's ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor's response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

  9. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  10. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  11. Kangaroo Care Education Effects on Nurses' Knowledge and Skills Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almutairi, Wedad Matar; Ludington-Hoe, Susan M

    2016-11-01

    Less than 20% of the 996 NICUs in the United States routinely practice kangaroo care, due in part to the inadequate knowledge and skills confidence of nurses. Continuing education improves knowledge and skills acquisition, but the effects of a kangaroo care certification course on nurses' knowledge and skills confidence are unknown. A pretest-posttest quasi-experiment was conducted. The Kangaroo Care Knowledge and Skills Confidence Tool was administered to 68 RNs at a 2.5-day course about kangaroo care evidence and skills. Measures of central tendency, dispersion, and paired t tests were conducted on 57 questionnaires. The nurses' characteristics were varied. The mean posttest Knowledge score (M = 88.54, SD = 6.13) was significantly higher than the pretest score (M = 78.7, SD = 8.30), t [54] = -9.1, p = .000), as was the posttest Skills Confidence score (pretest M = 32.06, SD = 3.49; posttest M = 26.80, SD = 5.22), t [53] = -8.459, p = .000). The nurses' knowledge and skills confidence of kangaroo care improved following continuing education, suggesting a need for continuing education in this area. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2016;47(11):518-524. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  12. Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Kasselstrand

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.

  13. Nurse leader certification preparation: how are confidence levels impacted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junger, Stacey; Trinkle, Nicole; Hall, Norma

    2016-09-01

    The aim was to examine the effect of a nurse leader certification preparation course on the confidence levels of the participants. Limited literature is available regarding nurse leader development and certifications. Barriers exist related to lack of confidence, high cost, time and lack of access to a preparation course. Nurse leaders (n = 51) completed a pre- and post-survey addressing confidence levels of participants related to the topics addressed in the nurse leader certification preparation course. There were statistically significant increases in confidence levels related to all course content for the participants. At the time of the study, there were 31.4% of participants intending to sit for the certification examination, and 5 of the 51 participants successfully sat for and passed the examination. A nurse leader certification preparation course increases confidence levels of the participants and removes barriers, thereby increasing the number of certifications obtained. The health-care climate is increasingly complex and nurse leaders need the expertise to navigate the ever-changing health-care environment. Certification in a specialty, such as leadership, serves as an indicator of a high level of competence in the field. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Fechner’s law in metacognition: a quantitative model of visual working memory confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Berg, Ronald; Yoo, Aspen H.; Ma, Wei Ji

    2016-01-01

    Although visual working memory (VWM) has been studied extensively, it is unknown how people form confidence judgments about their memories. Peirce (1878) speculated that Fechner’s law – which states that sensation is proportional to the logarithm of stimulus intensity – might apply to confidence reports. Based on this idea, we hypothesize that humans map the precision of their VWM contents to a confidence rating through Fechner’s law. We incorporate this hypothesis into the best available model of VWM encoding and fit it to data from a delayed-estimation experiment. The model provides an excellent account of human confidence rating distributions as well as the relation between performance and confidence. Moreover, the best-fitting mapping in a model with a highly flexible mapping closely resembles the logarithmic mapping, suggesting that no alternative mapping exists that accounts better for the data than Fechner's law. We propose a neural implementation of the model and find that this model also fits the behavioral data well. Furthermore, we find that jointly fitting memory errors and confidence ratings boosts the power to distinguish previously proposed VWM encoding models by a factor of 5.99 compared to fitting only memory errors. Finally, we show that Fechner's law also accounts for metacognitive judgments in a word recognition memory task, which is a first indication that it may be a general law in metacognition. Our work presents the first model to jointly account for errors and confidence ratings in VWM and could lay the groundwork for understanding the computational mechanisms of metacognition. PMID:28221087

  15. Confidence-based learning CME: overcoming barriers in irritable bowel syndrome with constipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cash, Brooks; Mitchner, Natasha A; Ravyn, Dana

    2011-01-01

    Performance of health care professionals depends on both medical knowledge and the certainty with which they possess it. Conventional continuing medical education interventions assess the correctness of learners' responses but do not determine the degree of confidence with which they hold incorrect information. This study describes the use of confidence-based learning (CBL) in an activity designed to enhance learners' knowledge, confidence in their knowledge, and clinical competence with regard to constipation-predominant IBS (IBS-C), a frequently underdiagnosed and misdiagnosed condition. The online CBL activity included multiple-choice questions in 2 modules: Burden of Care (BOC; 28 questions) and Patient Scenarios (PS; 9 case-based questions). After formative assessment, targeted feedback was provided, and the learner focused on material with demonstrated knowledge and/or confidence gaps. The process was repeated until 85% of questions were answered correctly and confidently (ie, mastery was attained). Of 275 participants (24% internal medicine, 13% gastroenterology, 32% family medicine, and 31% other), 249 and 167 completed the BOC and PS modules, respectively. Among all participants, 61.8% and 98.2% achieved mastery in the BOC and PS modules, respectively. Baseline mastery levels between specialties were significantly different in the BOC module (p = 0.002); no significant differences were evident between specialties in final mastery levels. Approximately one-third of learners were confident and wrong in topics of epidemiology, defining IBS and constipation, and treatments in the first iteration. No significant difference was observed between specialties for the PS module in either the first or last iterations. Learners achieved mastery in topics pertaining to IBS-C regardless of baseline knowledge or specialty. These data indicate that CME activities employing CBL can be used to address knowledge and confidence gaps. Copyright © 2010 The Alliance for

  16. Effect of immersive workplace experience on undergraduate nurses' mental health clinical confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Christopher; Moxham, Lorna; Taylor, Ellie K; Perlman, Dana; Brighton, Renee; Sumskis, Susan; Heffernan, Tim; Lee-Bates, Benjamin

    2017-12-01

    Preregistration education needs to ensure that student nurses are properly trained with the required skills and knowledge, and have the confidence to work with people who have a mental illness. With increased attention on non-traditional mental health clinical placements, further research is required to determine the effects of non-traditional mental health clinical placements on mental health clinical confidence. The aim of the present study was to investigate the impact of a non-traditional mental health clinical placement on mental health nursing clinical confidence compared to nursing students undergoing traditional clinical placements. Using the Mental Health Nursing Clinical Confidence Scale, the study investigated the relative effects of two placement programmes on the mental health clinical confidence of 79 nursing students. The two placement programmes included a non-traditional clinical placement of Recovery Camp and a comparison group that attended traditional clinical placements. Overall, the results indicated that, for both groups, mental health placement had a significant effect on improving mean mental health clinical confidence, both immediately upon conclusion of placement and at the 3-month follow up. Students who attended Recovery Camp reported a significant positive difference, compared to the comparison group, for ratings related to communicating effectively with clients with a mental illness, having a basic knowledge of antipsychotic medications and their side-effects, and providing client education regarding the effects and side-effects of medications. The findings suggest that a unique clinical placement, such as Recovery Camp, can improve and maintain facets of mental health clinical confidence for students of nursing. © 2017 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  17. Effects of a service learning experience on confidence and clinical skills in baccalaureate nursing students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saylor, Jennifer; Hertsenberg, Lindsey; McQuillan, Malissa; O'Connell, Ashley; Shoe, Kimberly; Calamaro, Christina J

    2018-02-01

    Camp programs yield positive and lasting benefits for children. Integrating a summer camp into a nurse course with a service learning design fosters learning beyond the classroom and enhances community engagement. The purpose of this study is to describe the nursing students' experience and perceived confidence after completing a service learning nursing course. This is a descriptive, qualitative research study that used reflection and a perceived confidence questionnaire. The study was conducted in a school of nursing and surrounding university campus facilities during the diabetes camp. The participants (n=23) were nursing students who enrolled in the nursing course. As part of the course requirements, students completed an eight item question confidence survey before and after the diabetes camp related to diabetes and camp management, and interpersonal abilities with patients, families, and healthcare professionals. Within 48-72h after diabetes camp, the students completed the reflection paper. The pre and post Confidence Surveys were analyzed using a t-test and thematic analysis was used to analyze the reflection paper. Overall, perceived confidence levels increased after completing the service learning course (t=-9.91, p=0.001). Four themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: pre-camp assumptions and fears, growth in confidence, understanding diabetes management in the community, and appreciation for learning beyond the classroom and hospital setting. This service learning course provided nursing students the ability to not only develop diabetes clinical skills and perceived confidence, but also life skills including teamwork, leadership, and conflict resolution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Monte Carlo Methods to Establish Confidence in Planets Discovered by Transit Photometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, J. M.; Caldwell, D. A.

    2000-12-01

    With the astonishing discovery of about a dozen super giant short-period (attention on the problem of assessing the significance of a candidate transit signature. There are two fundamental quantities of interest required to establish the confidence in a planetary candidate. These are: 1) the equivalent number of independent statistical tests conducted in searching the light curve of one star for transiting planets over a given range of periods, and 2) the characteristics of the observation noise for the light curve in question. The latter quantity determines the false alarm rate for a single test for that particular star as a function of the detection threshold. The former quantity, together with the total number of target stars in the observing program, dictate the requisite single-test false alarm rate based on the acceptable total number of false alarms. The methods described do not make any presumptions about the distribution of the observational noise. In addition they either provide conservative results for non-white noise or take the correlation structure of the noise into account. The results of this paper show that transit photometry is a promising method for detecting planets even in the presence of colored, non-Gaussian noise and with the required large number of target stars (>100,000 stars in the case of the Kepler Mission) for the small geometric probability of transit alignment. Support for this work was received from NASA's Discovery Program.

  19. On Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculation

    CERN Document Server

    Tegenfeldt, Fredrik

    2005-01-01

    In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this note we present a study of the coverage of this method for the standard Likelihood Ratio (aka Feldman & Cousins) construction for a Poisson process with known background and Gaussian or log-Normal distributed uncertainties in the background or signal efficiency. For uncertainties in the signal efficiency of upto 40 % we find over-coverage on the level of 2 to 4 % depending on the size of uncertainties and the region in signal space. Uncertainties in the background generally have smaller effect on the coverage. A considerable smoothing of the coverage curves is observed. A software package is presented which allows fast calculation of the confidence intervals for a variety of assumptions on shape and size of systematic uncertainties for different nuisance paramete...

  20. Exploring Self - Confidence Level of High School Students Doing Sport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurullah Emir Ekinci

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate self-confidence levels of high school students, who do sport, in the extent of their gender, sport branch (individual/team sports and aim for participating in sport (professional/amateur. 185 active high school students from Kutahya voluntarily participated for the study. In the study as data gathering tool self-confidence scale was used. In the evaluation of the data as a hypothesis test Mann Whitney U non parametric test was used. As a result self-confidence levels of participants showed significant differences according to their gender and sport branch but there was no significant difference according to aim for participating in sport.

  1. Building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corden, P.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a few thoughts on the question of building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia, in particular in the area centred on the Korean peninsula. This question includes the process of establishing and implementing confidence- and security-building measures, some of which might involve States other than North and South Korea. The development of CSBMs has now been well established in Europe, and there are encouraging signs that such measures are taking hold in other areas of the world, including in Korea. Consequently there is a fairly rich mine of information, precedent and experience from which to draw in focusing on the particular subject at hand. In these remarks the concept of confidence- and security-building is briefly addressed and measures are examined that have proven useful in other circumstances and review some possibilities that appear of interest in the present context

  2. Perceptual learning effect on decision and confidence thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solovey, Guillermo; Shalom, Diego; Pérez-Schuster, Verónica; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-10-01

    Practice can enhance of perceptual sensitivity, a well-known phenomenon called perceptual learning. However, the effect of practice on subjective perception has received little attention. We approach this problem from a visual psychophysics and computational modeling perspective. In a sequence of visual search experiments, subjects significantly increased the ability to detect a "trained target". Before and after training, subjects performed two psychophysical protocols that parametrically vary the visibility of the "trained target": an attentional blink and a visual masking task. We found that confidence increased after learning only in the attentional blink task. Despite large differences in some observables and task settings, we identify common mechanisms for decision-making and confidence. Specifically, our behavioral results and computational model suggest that perceptual ability is independent of processing time, indicating that changes in early cortical representations are effective, and learning changes decision criteria to convey choice and confidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Nonverbal Communication of Confidence in Soccer Referees: An Experimental Test of Darwin's Leakage Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furley, Philip; Schweizer, Geoffrey

    2016-12-01

    The goal of the present paper was to investigate whether soccer referees' nonverbal behavior (NVB) differed based on the difficulty of their decisions and whether perceivers could detect these systematic variations. On the one hand, communicating confidence via NVB is emphasized in referee training. On the other hand, it seems feasible from a theoretical point of view that particularly following relatively difficult decisions referees have problems controlling their NVB. We conducted three experiments to investigate this question. Experiment 1 (N = 40) and Experiment 2 (N = 60) provided evidence that perceivers regard referees' NVB as less confident following ambiguous decisions as compared with following unambiguous decisions. Experiment 3 (N = 58) suggested that perceivers were more likely to debate with the referee when referees nonverbally communicated less confidence. We discuss consequences for referee training.

  4. CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND/VS. STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING IN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS. CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ILEANA BRUDIU

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Estimated parameters with confidence intervals and testing statistical assumptions used in statistical analysis to obtain conclusions on research from a sample extracted from the population. Paper to the case study presented aims to highlight the importance of volume of sample taken in the study and how this reflects on the results obtained when using confidence intervals and testing for pregnant. If statistical testing hypotheses not only give an answer "yes" or "no" to some questions of statistical estimation using statistical confidence intervals provides more information than a test statistic, show high degree of uncertainty arising from small samples and findings build in the "marginally significant" or "almost significant (p very close to 0.05.

  5. Confidence in the long-term safety of deep geological repositories. Its development and communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    The technical aspects of confidence have been the subject of considerable debate, especially the concept of model validation. The safety case that is provided at a particular stage in the planning, construction, operation or closure of a deep geological repository is a part of a broader decision basis that guides the repository-development process. The basic steps for deriving the safety case at various stages of repository development involve: a safety assessment; and the documentation of the safety assessment, a statement of confidence in the safety indicated by the assessment, and the confirmation of the appropriateness of the safety strategy. The approaches to establish confidence in the evaluation of safety should aim to ensure that the decisions taken within the incremental process of repository development are well-founded. Various aspects of confidence in the evaluation of safety, and their integration within a safety case, are presented in detail in the present report. When communicating confidence in the findings of a safety assessment, clarity in the communication of concepts is always required. Consistent with this requirement, key concepts are specifically defined in the main text of the report. (R.P.)

  6. Dissociating Perceptual Confidence from Discrimination Accuracy Reveals No Influence of Metacognitive Awareness on Working Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaha, Jason; Barrett, John J; Sheldon, Andrew D; LaRocque, Joshua J; Postle, Bradley R

    2016-01-01

    Visual awareness is hypothesized to be intimately related to visual working memory (WM), such that information present in WM is thought to have necessarily been represented consciously. Recent work has challenged this longstanding view by demonstrating that visual stimuli rated by observers as unseen can nevertheless be maintained over a delay period. These experiments have been criticized, however, on the basis that subjective awareness ratings may contain response bias (e.g., an observer may report no awareness when in fact they had partial awareness). We mitigated this issue by investigating WM for visual stimuli that were matched for perceptual discrimination capacity (d'), yet which varied in subjective confidence ratings (so-called relative blindsight). If the degree of initial subjective awareness of a stimulus facilitates later maintenance of that information, WM performance should improve for stimuli encoded with higher confidence. In contrast, we found that WM performance did not benefit from higher visual discrimination confidence. This relationship was observed regardless of WM load (1 or 3). Insofar as metacognitive ratings (e.g., confidence, visibility) reflect visual awareness, these results challenge a strong relationship between conscious perception and WM using a paradigm that controls for discrimination accuracy and is less subject to response bias (since confidence is manipulated within subjects). Methodologically, we replicate prior efforts to induce relative blindsight using similar stimulus displays, providing a general framework for isolating metacognitive awareness in order to examine the function of consciousness.

  7. Dissociating perceptual confidence from discrimination accuracy reveals no influence of metacognitive awareness on working memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason eSamaha

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Visual awareness is hypothesized to be intimately related to visual working memory (WM, such that information present in WM is thought to have necessarily been represented consciously. Recent work has challenged this longstanding view by demonstrating that visual stimuli rated by observers as unseen can nevertheless be maintained over a delay period. These experiments have been criticized, however, on the basis that subjective awareness ratings may contain response bias (e.g., an observer may report no awareness when in fact they had partial awareness. We mitigated this issue by investigating WM for visual stimuli that were matched for perceptual discrimination capacity (d’, yet which varied in subjective confidence ratings (so called relative blindsight. If the degree of initial subjective awareness of a stimulus facilitates later maintenance of that information, WM performance should improve for stimuli encoded with higher confidence. In contrast, we found that WM performance did not benefit from higher visual discrimination confidence. This relationship was observed regardless of WM load (1 or 3. Insofar as metacognitive ratings (e.g., confidence, visibility reflect visual awareness, these results challenge a strong relationship between conscious perception and WM using a paradigm that controls for discrimination accuracy and is less subject to response bias (since confidence is manipulated within subjects. Methodologically, we replicate prior efforts to induce relative blindsight using similar stimulus displays, providing a general framework for isolating metacognitive awareness in order to examine the function of consciousness.

  8. Assessing nonchoosers' eyewitness identification accuracy from photographic showups by using confidence and response times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauerland, Melanie; Sagana, Anna; Sporer, Siegfried L

    2012-10-01

    While recent research has shown that the accuracy of positive identification decisions can be assessed via confidence and decision times, gauging lineup rejections has been less successful. The current study focused on 2 different aspects which are inherent in lineup rejections. First, we hypothesized that decision times and confidence ratings should be postdictive of identification rejections if they refer to a single lineup member only. Second, we hypothesized that dividing nonchoosers according to the reasons they provided for their decisions can serve as a useful postdictor for nonchoosers' accuracy. To test these assumptions, we used (1) 1-person lineups (showups) in order to obtain confidence and response time measures referring to a single lineup member, and (2) asked nonchoosers about their reasons for making a rejection. Three hundred and eighty-four participants were asked to identify 2 different persons after watching 1 of 2 stimulus films. The results supported our hypotheses. Nonchoosers' postdecision confidence ratings were well-calibrated. Likewise, we successfully established optimum time and confidence boundaries for nonchoosers. Finally, combinations of postdictors increased the number of accurate classifications compared with individual postdictors. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  9. Testing and qualification of confidence in statistical procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serghiuta, D.; Tholammakkil, J.; Hammouda, N. [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (Canada); O' Hagan, A. [Sheffield Univ. (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-01

    tests, but targeted to the context of the particular application and aimed at identifying the domain of validity of the proposed tolerance limit method and algorithm, might provide the necessary confidence in the proposed statistical procedure. The Ontario Power Generation, Bruce Power and AMEC-NSS have supported this work and contributed to the development and execution of the test cases. Their statistical method and results are not, however, discussed in this paper. (author)

  10. Building, measuring and improving public confidence in the nuclear regulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    An important factor for public confidence in the nuclear regulator is the general public trust of the government and its representatives, which is clearly not the same in all countries. Likewise, cultural differences between countries can be considerable, and similar means of communication between government authorities and the public may not be universally effective. Nevertheless, this workshop identified a number of common principles for the communication of nuclear regulatory decisions that can be recommended to all regulators. They have been cited in particular for their ability to help build, measure and/or improve overall public confidence in the nuclear regulator. (author)

  11. Lower Confidence Bounds for the Probabilities of Correct Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radhey S. Singh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We extend the results of Gupta and Liang (1998, derived for location parameters, to obtain lower confidence bounds for the probability of correctly selecting the t best populations (PCSt simultaneously for all t=1,…,k−1 for the general scale parameter models, where k is the number of populations involved in the selection problem. The application of the results to the exponential and normal probability models is discussed. The implementation of the simultaneous lower confidence bounds for PCSt is illustrated through real-life datasets.

  12. Effect of False Confidence on Asset Allocation Decisions of Households

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swarn Chatterjee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates whether false confidence, as characterized by a high level of personal mastery and a low level of intelligence (IQ, results in frequent investor trading and subsequent investor wealth erosion across time. Using the National Longitudinal Survey (NLSY79, change in wealth and asset allocation across time is modeled as a function of various behavioral, socio-economic and demographic variables drawn from prior literature.  Findings of this research reveal that false confidence is indeed a predictor of trading activity in individual investment assets, and it also has a negative impact on individual wealth creation across time.

  13. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-11-01

    MCNP's criticality methodology and some basic statistics are reviewed. Confidence intervals are discussed, as well as how to build them and their importance in the presentation of a Monte Carlo result. The combination of MCNP's three k eff estimators is shown, theoretically and empirically, by statistical studies and examples, to be the best k eff estimator. The method of combining estimators is based on a solid theoretical foundation, namely, the Gauss-Markov Theorem in regard to the least squares method. The confidence intervals of the combined estimator are also shown to have correct coverage rates for the examples considered

  14. Older widows and married women: their intimates and confidants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babchuk, N; Anderson, T B

    1989-01-01

    Interview data obtained from 132 women sixty-five and older reveals that the widows and married women have a comparable number of primary friends. Being over age seventy-four influences the size of the friendship network for widows but not married women. The primary friendships of widows and married women parallel each other in terms of endurance and stability. Primary ties with men are the exception rather than the norm, for both widows and married women. Widows do differ from married women in that the former rely on confidant friends to a greater extent. Ties between older women and their confidants are characterized by norms of reciprocity.

  15. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  16. Undergraduate Confidence When Undertaking Root Canal Treatment and Their Perception of the Quality of Their Endodontic Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Puryer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The General Dental Council expects graduating dentists to be competent at treating pulpal disease. Previous studies have found dental undergraduates to have low levels of confidence with respect to endodontic treatments. The aim of this study was to investigate the confidence of undergraduate dental students at the University of Bristol when performing root canal treatment, and to investigate their perception of the quality of their endodontic education. An anonymous questionnaire, based upon one used in a 2015 study at Cardiff University, was distributed to all (n = 204 undergraduate students in Years 3–5 at the University of Bristol. The results were analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences software (SPSS. There was a 59% (n = 120 response rate and a significant (p < 0.01 difference in confidence levels for root canal treatments (RCTs completed between these students. All (100% Year-5 students felt confident in completing anterior RCTs, and 91% felt confident in completing posterior RCTs. The majority (93% of Year-4 students felt confident in completing anterior RCTs, and 77% felt confident in completing posterior RCTs. Over one-half (56% of Year-3 students felt confident in anterior RCTs and 17% in posterior RCTs. With respect to the individual stages of RCT (access cavity, cleaning and shaping of root canal system, and obturation/filling, results showed that there was a significant difference (p < 0.01 in confidence levels between year groups. Many students thought the amount of time spent on endodontic teaching and the quality of teaching to be satisfactory. Improvements suggested for future endodontic teaching included higher numbers of staff supervision and additional endodontic practice on extracted teeth before seeing patients. There was a strong association between students’ clinical experience and their levels of confidence when completing RCT. Increasing the amount of clinical experience of RCTs could

  17. How trust in institutions and organizations builds general consumer confidence in the safety of food: a decomposition of effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jonge, J; van Trijp, J C M; van der Lans, I A; Renes, R J; Frewer, L J

    2008-09-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between general consumer confidence in the safety of food and consumer trust in institutions and organizations. More specifically, using a decompositional regression analysis approach, the extent to which the strength of the relationship between trust and general confidence is dependent upon a particular food chain actor (for example, food manufacturers) is assessed. In addition, the impact of specific subdimensions of trust, such as openness, on consumer confidence are analyzed, as well as interaction effects of actors and subdimensions of trust. The results confirm previous findings, which indicate that a higher level of trust is associated with a higher level of confidence. However, the results from the current study extend on previous findings by disentangling the effects that determine the strength of this relationship into specific components associated with the different actors, the different trust dimensions, and specific combinations of actors and trust dimensions. The results show that trust in food manufacturers influences general confidence more than trust in other food chain actors, and that care is the most important trust dimension. However, the contribution of a particular trust dimension in enhancing general confidence is actor-specific, suggesting that different actors should focus on different trust dimensions when the purpose is to enhance consumer confidence in food safety. Implications for the development of communication strategies that are designed to regain or maintain consumer confidence in the safety of food are discussed.

  18. Comparison of Practices, Knowledge, Confidence, and Attitude toward Oral Cancer among Oral Health Professionals between Japan and Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haresaku, Satoru; Makino, Michiko; Sugiyama, Seiichi; Naito, Toru; Mariño, Rodrigo Jose

    2018-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the practices, knowledge, confidence, and attitude toward oral cancer among Japanese oral health professionals (J-OHPs) and to identify Japanese-specific problems in oral cancer practices by comparing them between Japan and Australia. A questionnaire survey regarding oral cancer practices among Australian oral health professionals (Au-OHPs) was conducted in Australia in 2014-2015. The questionnaire was translated into Japanese, and a Web-based questionnaire survey was conducted among 131 Japanese dentists (J-Dentists) and 131 dental hygienists (J-DHs) in 2016. To compare the J-OHPs' findings with the Au-OHPs', the data of Australian dentists (Au-dentists) and Australian dental hygienists (Au-DHs) were extracted from the Australian survey. Those findings were then compared via a statistical analysis. Eighty-two J-Dentists, 55 J-DHs, 214 Au-Dentists, and 45 Au-DHs participated in this study. Only 34.1 % of J-Dentists and 36.4 % of J-DHs performed oral cancer screenings on their patients; J-OHPs were significantly less likely to perform them than Au-OHPs. The level of knowledge and confidence regarding oral cancer among JOHPs were significantly lower than among Au-OHPs. About 90 % of J-OHPs felt that they needed additional training in oral cancer practices. Less than 40 % of J-OHPs performed oral cancer screenings in their patients. The low level of knowledge and confidence regarding oral cancer among JOHPs may contribute to their low performance of oral cancer practices. Therefore, further education and training programs for oral cancer practices should be provided to Japanese OHPs for the prevention and early detection of oral cancer.

  19. A Novel Multiplayer Screen-Based Simulation Experience for African Learners Improved Confidence in Management of Postpartum Hemorrhage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey M. Taekman

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionPostpartum hemorrhage (PPH remains a global challenge, affecting thirteen million women each year. In addition, PPH is a leading cause of maternal mortality in Asia and Africa. In the U.S.A., care of critically ill patients is often practiced using mannequin-based simulation. Mannequin-based simulation presents challenges in global health, particularly in low- or middle-income countries. We developed a novel multiplayer screen-based simulation in a virtual world enabling the practice of team coordination with PPH. We used this simulation with learners in Mulago, Uganda. We hypothesized that a multiplayer screen-based simulation experience would increase learner confidence in their ability to manage PPH.MethodsThe study design was a simple pre- and a post-intervention survey. Forty-eight interprofessional subjects participated in one of nine 1-h simulation sessions using the PPH software. A fifteen-question self-assessment administered before and after the intervention was designed to probe the areas of learning as defined by Bloom and Krathwohl: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor.ResultsCombined confidence scores increased significantly overall following the simulation experience and individually in each of the three categories of Bloom’s Taxonomy: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor.ConclusionWe provide preliminary evidence that multiplayer screen-based simulation represents a scalable, distributable form of learning that may be used effectively in global health education and training. Interestingly, despite our intervention being screen-based, our subjects showed improved confidence in their ability to perform psychomotor tasks. Although there is precedent for mental rehearsal improving performance, further research is needed to understand this finding.

  20. A Novel Multiplayer Screen-Based Simulation Experience for African Learners Improved Confidence in Management of Postpartum Hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taekman, Jeffrey M; Foureman, Megan F; Bulamba, Fred; Steele, Michael; Comstock, Emily; Kintu, Andrew; Mauritz, Amy; Olufolabi, Adeyemi

    2017-01-01

    Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) remains a global challenge, affecting thirteen million women each year. In addition, PPH is a leading cause of maternal mortality in Asia and Africa. In the U.S.A., care of critically ill patients is often practiced using mannequin-based simulation. Mannequin-based simulation presents challenges in global health, particularly in low- or middle-income countries. We developed a novel multiplayer screen-based simulation in a virtual world enabling the practice of team coordination with PPH. We used this simulation with learners in Mulago, Uganda. We hypothesized that a multiplayer screen-based simulation experience would increase learner confidence in their ability to manage PPH. The study design was a simple pre- and a post-intervention survey. Forty-eight interprofessional subjects participated in one of nine 1-h simulation sessions using the PPH software. A fifteen-question self-assessment administered before and after the intervention was designed to probe the areas of learning as defined by Bloom and Krathwohl: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor. Combined confidence scores increased significantly overall following the simulation experience and individually in each of the three categories of Bloom's Taxonomy: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor. We provide preliminary evidence that multiplayer screen-based simulation represents a scalable, distributable form of learning that may be used effectively in global health education and training. Interestingly, despite our intervention being screen-based, our subjects showed improved confidence in their ability to perform psychomotor tasks. Although there is precedent for mental rehearsal improving performance, further research is needed to understand this finding.

  1. Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Neys, Wim; Cromheeke, Sofie; Osman, Magda

    2011-01-01

    Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1) and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2) problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed. PMID:21283574

  2. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Document Server

    Vanden Broeck, Renilde

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC) in 2007. (1/2 page)

  3. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in 2007." (1/2 page)

  4. Expanding Horizons--Into the Future with Confidence!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volk, Valerie

    2006-01-01

    Gifted students often show a deep interest in and profound concern for the complex issues of society. Given the leadership potential of these students and their likely responsibility for solving future social problems, they need to develop this awareness and also a sense of confidence in dealing with future issues. The Future Problem Solving…

  5. Confidence Testing for Knowledge-Based Global Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal advocates the position that the use of confidence wagering (CW) during testing can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during between-subject assessments. Data revealed female students were more favorable to taking risks when making CW and less inclined toward risk aversion than their male counterparts. Student…

  6. Confidence building on euro convergence : Evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992–1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  7. Confidence building on Euro convergence: evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  8. A monitor for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.

    2008-01-01

    Despite the fact that in the developed countries food safety standards are higher than ever, food safety incidents continue to occur frequently. The accumulation of food safety incidents might affect general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Therefore, in this thesis, the concept of general

  9. Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

  10. SOCIAL MEDIA – VITAL INSTRUMENT IN GAINING CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela-Cristina VOICU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given that, currently, the consumer has become more demanding and organizations face some of the greatest challenges due to the economic climate of recent years, the need to build and cultivate strong relationships has become vital not only for the company's success but also for its survival. And solid relationships are built over time through confidence. Trust is one of the most important elements in the process of purchasing and consumer loyalty; it is difficult to obtain but easy to lose. Companies that are enjoying a high degree of confidence benefit from best quotations for their shares, higher profits and a better retention of the best employees. The effects of the lack of confidence are obvious (unsatisfied consumers, lost sales and very expensive for the company. In this context, through the following paper we seek to bring more understanding on how a company can gain the confidence of consumers given that the forms of communication that consumers prefer and that are gaining momentum currently, are taking place online, especially in the social media.

  11. The Dark and Bloody Mystery: Building Basic Writers' Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sledd, Robert

    While the roots of students' fear of writing go deep, students fear most the surface of writing. They fear that a person's language indicates the state not only of the mind but of the soul--thus their writing can make them look stupid and morally depraved. This fear of error and lack of confidence prevent students from developing a command of the…

  12. Role perception, job-related tension and organisational confidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Role perception, job-related tension and organisational confidence of the village extension workers in Nsukka zone of Enugu State Agricultural Development ... Data for the study were collected through structured questionnaire administered on 44 VEWS selected, using ... their role-expectations as being important. Many of ...

  13. Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonett, Douglas G.

    2006-01-01

    Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

  14. Comparing confidence intervals for Goodman and Kruskal's gamma coefficient

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Ark, L.A.; van Aert, R.C.M.

    2015-01-01

    This study was motivated by the question which type of confidence interval (CI) one should use to summarize sample variance of Goodman and Kruskal's coefficient gamma. In a Monte-Carlo study, we investigated the coverage and computation time of the Goodman-Kruskal CI, the Cliff-consistent CI, the

  15. Maintaining public confidence in UK nuclear safety regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, L.

    2001-01-01

    The key to maintaining stake holder confidence is competence and having the resources necessary to not only carry out regulatory functions effectively, but also to keep the public informed and respond to their questions. This does not come cheap but it is a price well worth paying. (N.C.)

  16. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  17. Confidence Judgments in Children's and Adults' Event Recall and Suggestibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roebers, Claudia M.

    2002-01-01

    Three studies investigated the role of 8- and 10-year-olds' and adults' metacognitive monitoring and control processes for unbiased event recall tasks and suggestibility. Findings suggested strong tendencies to overestimate confidence regardless of age and question format. Children did not lack principal metacognitive competencies when questions…

  18. Graphical interpretation of confidence curves in rankit plots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Blaabjerg, Ole; Andersen, Marianne

    2004-01-01

    A well-known transformation from the bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) curve to a straight line in the rankit plot is investigated, and a tool for evaluation of the distribution of reference groups is presented. It is based on the confidence intervals for percentiles of the calculated Gaussian distri...

  19. Performance of classification confidence measures in dynamic classifier systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Štefka, D.; Holeňa, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 4 (2013), s. 299-319 ISSN 1210-0552 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-17187S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : classifier combining * dynamic classifier systems * classification confidence Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.412, year: 2013

  20. Uncertainty and confidence from the triple-network perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    White, Thomas P.; Engen, Nina Helkjær; Sørensen, Susan

    2014-01-01

    of environmental conditions; (ii) those regions whose activity is robustly affected by our subjective confidence; and (iii) those regions differentially activated at these contrasting times. In further meta-analyses the consistency of activation between these judgement types was assessed. Increased activation...

  1. Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

    2008-10-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce. Copyright 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

  2. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  3. Faculty Expressions of (No) Confidence in Institutional Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frantz, Alan C.; Lawson, Jonathan N.

    2017-01-01

    Although institutions of higher education rarely crumble and fall in the wake of votes of no confidence in their leadership--in presidents, senior administrators, or even governing boards--those expressions of discontent do have meaning. They suggest something awry at the institution, and even the potential to precipitate change. They also present…

  4. Academic Behavioural Confidence: A Comparison of Medical and Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Lalage; Sander, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Introduction. Sander, Stevenson, King and Coates (2000) identified differences between medical students in a conventional university and psychology students in a post-1992 university in their responses to different styles of learning and teaching. Method. It had been hypothesised that differing levels of confidence explained why the former felt…

  5. Gender Difference of Confidence in Using Technology for Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yau, Hon Keung; Cheng, Alison Lai Fong

    2012-01-01

    Past studies have found male students to have more confidence in using technology for learning than do female students. Males tend to have more positive attitudes about the use of technology for learning than do females. According to the Women's Foundation (2006), few studies examined gender relevant research in Hong Kong. It also appears that no…

  6. Concerns and developmental needs of highly confident and less ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of this study was based on three assumptions, namely 1) that coaching efficacy (confidence specific to the task of coaching) impacts the performance of coaches, 2) that coaching efficacy is influenced by the individual's procedural and declarative knowledge on coaching, and 3) that coaches do their work ...

  7. Parametric change point estimation, testing and confidence interval ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In many applications like finance, industry and medicine, it is important to consider that the model parameters may undergo changes at unknown moment in time. This paper deals with estimation, testing and confidence interval of a change point for a univariate variable which is assumed to be normally distributed. To detect ...

  8. Exploring the influence of Self-Confidence in Product Sketching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Passel, Pepijn; Eggink, Wouter; Bohemia, E.; Ion, B.; Kovacevic, A.

    2013-01-01

    The development of a student’s skills during design education partly depends on the amount of selfconfidence. Optimizing the speed and level of growth can be done by influencing factors related to self-confidence that students have to cope with throughout their studies. Six main factors can be

  9. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General Provisions...

  10. Can traceability improve consumers' confidence in food quality and safety?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijswijk, van W.; Cornelisse-Vermaat, J.R.; Frewer, L.J.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract This paper investigates whether the implementation of traceability systems in line with the European General Food Law as well as food labelling laws related to allergens can impact on consumer confidence in food quality and safety. It aims to give insight into consumer demands regarding

  11. A general model of confidence building: analysis and implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilgour, D.M.

    1998-01-01

    For more than two decades, security approaches in Europe have included confidence building. Many have argued that Confidence-Building Measures (CBMS) played an essential role in the enormous transformations that took place there. Thus, it is hardly,surprising that CBMs have been proposed as measures to reduce tensions and transform security relationships elsewhere in the world. The move toward wider application of CBMs has strengthened recently, as conventional military, diplomatic, and humanitarian approaches seem to have failed to address problems associated with peace-building and peace support operations. There is, however, a serious problem. We don't really know why, or even how, CBMs work. Consequently, we have no reliable way to design CBMs that would be appropriate in substance, form, and timing for regions culturally, geographically, and militarily different from Europe. Lacking a solid understanding of confidence building, we are handicapped in our efforts to extend its successes to the domain of peace building and peace support. To paraphrase Macintosh, if we don't know how CBMs succeeded in the past, then we are unlikely to be good at maintaining, improving, or extending them. The specific aim of this project is to step into this gap, using the methods of game theory to clarify some aspects of the underlying logic of confidence building. Formal decision models will be shown to contribute new and valuable insights that will assist in the design of CBMs to contribute to new problems and in new arenas. (author)

  12. The role of consumer confidence in creating customer loyalty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ou, Yi-Chun; de Vries, Lisette; Wiesel, Thorsten; Verhoef, Pieter

    How can firms retain customers during recessions? To answer this question, we investigate the moderating role of consumer confidence (CC) on the effects of three types of crucial customer loyalty strategies. These strategies are value equity (VE), brand equity (BE), and relationship equity (RE),

  13. Confidence ellipses: A variation based on parametric bootstrapping applicable on Multiple Factor Analysis results for rapid graphical evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dehlholm, Christian; Brockhoff, Per B.; Bredie, Wender L. P.

    2012-01-01

    A new way of parametric bootstrapping allows similar construction of confidence ellipses applicable on all results from Multiple Factor Analysis obtained from the FactoMineR package in the statistical program R. With this procedure, a similar approach will be applied to Multiple Factor Analysis r...... in different studies performed on the same set of products. In addition, the graphical display of confidence ellipses eases interpretation and communication of results....

  14. The Dark Triad and the PID-5 Maladaptive Personality Traits: Accuracy, Confidence and Response Bias in Judgments of Veracity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benno G. Wissing

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Dark Triad traits—narcissism, Machiavellianism and psychopathy—have been found to be associated with intra- or interpersonal deception production frequency. This cross-sectional study (N = 207 investigated if the Dark Triad traits are also associated with deception detection accuracy, as implicated by the recent conception of a deception-general ability. To investigate associations between maladaptive personality space and deception, the PID-5 maladaptive personality traits were included to investigate if besides Machiavellianism, Detachment is negatively associated with response bias. Finally, associations between the Dark Triad traits, Antagonism, Negative Affectivity and confidence judgments were investigated. Participants watched videos of lying vs. truth-telling senders and judged the truthfulness of the statements. None of the Dark Triad traits was found to be associated with the ability to detect deception. Detachment was negatively associated with response bias. Psychopathy was associated with global confidence judgments. The results provide additional support that dark and maladaptive personality traits are associated with judgmental biases but not with accuracy in deception detection. The internal consistencies of 4 of the 8 subscales of the used personality short scales were only low and nearly sufficient (αs =0.65–0.69.

  15. Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xueping

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence

  16. Model Additional Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rockwood, Laura

    2001-01-01

    Since the end of the cold war a series of events has changed the circumstances and requirements of the safeguards system. The discovery of a clandestine nuclear weapons program in Iraq, the continuing difficulty in verifying the initial report of Democratic People's Republic of Korea upon entry into force of their safeguards agreement, and the decision of the South African Government to give up its nuclear weapons program and join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons have all played a role in an ambitious effort by IAEA Member States and the Secretariat to strengthen the safeguards system. A major milestone in this effort was reached in May 1997 when the IAEA Board of Governors approved a Model Protocol Additional to Safeguards Agreements. The Model Additional Protocol was negotiated over a period of less than a year by an open-ended committee of the Board involving some 70 Member States and two regional inspectorates. The IAEA is now in the process of negotiating additional protocols, State by State, and implementing them. These additional protocols will provide the IAEA with rights of access to information about all activities related to the use of nuclear material in States with comprehensive safeguards agreements and greatly expanded physical access for IAEA inspectors to confirm or verify this information. In conjunction with this, the IAEA is working on the integration of these measures with those provided for in comprehensive safeguards agreements, with a view to maximizing the effectiveness and efficiency, within available resources, the implementation of safeguards. Details concerning the Model Additional Protocol are given. (author)

  17. Social Information Is Integrated into Value and Confidence Judgments According to Its Reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Martino, Benedetto; Bobadilla-Suarez, Sebastian; Nouguchi, Takao; Sharot, Tali; Love, Bradley C

    2017-06-21

    How much we like something, whether it be a bottle of wine or a new film, is affected by the opinions of others. However, the social information that we receive can be contradictory and vary in its reliability. Here, we tested whether the brain incorporates these statistics when judging value and confidence. Participants provided value judgments about consumer goods in the presence of online reviews. We found that participants updated their initial value and confidence judgments in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account both the uncertainty of their initial beliefs and the reliability of the social information. Activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex tracked the degree of belief update. Analogous to how lower-level perceptual information is integrated, we found that the human brain integrates social information according to its reliability when judging value and confidence. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The field of perceptual decision making has shown that the sensory system integrates different sources of information according to their respective reliability, as predicted by a Bayesian inference scheme. In this work, we hypothesized that a similar coding scheme is implemented by the human brain to process social signals and guide complex, value-based decisions. We provide experimental evidence that the human prefrontal cortex's activity is consistent with a Bayesian computation that integrates social information that differs in reliability and that this integration affects the neural representation of value and confidence. Copyright © 2017 De Martino et al.

  18. Effects of circular gait training on balance, balance confidence in patients with stroke: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Shin-Kyu; Kim, Sung-Jin; Yoon, Tak Yong; Lee, Suk-Min

    2018-05-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to investigate the effects of circular gait training on balance and balance confidence in patients with stroke. [Subjects and Methods] Fifteen patients with stroke were randomly divided into either the circular gait training (CGT) group (n=8) or the straight gait training (SGT) group (n=7). Both groups had conventional therapy that adhered to the neurodevelopmental treatment (NDT) approach, for 30 min. In addition, the CGT group performed circular gait training, and the SGT group practiced straight gait training for 30 min. Each intervention was applied for 1 h, 5 days a week, for 2 weeks. Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, and Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale were used to test balance and balance confidence. [Results] After the intervention, both groups showed significant increases in balance and balance confidence. Significant improvements in the balance of the CGT group compared with the SGT group were observed at post-assessment. [Conclusion] This study showed that circular gait training significantly improves balance in patients with stroke.

  19. Simulation experience enhances physical therapist student confidence in managing a patient in the critical care environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohtake, Patricia J; Lazarus, Marcilene; Schillo, Rebecca; Rosen, Michael

    2013-02-01

    Rehabilitation of patients in critical care environments improves functional outcomes. This finding has led to increased implementation of intensive care unit (ICU) rehabilitation programs, including early mobility, and an associated increased demand for physical therapists practicing in ICUs. Unfortunately, many physical therapists report being inadequately prepared to work in this high-risk environment. Simulation provides focused, deliberate practice in safe, controlled learning environments and may be a method to initiate academic preparation of physical therapists for ICU practice. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of participation in simulation-based management of a patient with critical illness in an ICU setting on levels of confidence and satisfaction in physical therapist students. A one-group, pretest-posttest, quasi-experimental design was used. Physical therapist students (N=43) participated in a critical care simulation experience requiring technical (assessing bed mobility and pulmonary status), behavioral (patient and interprofessional communication), and cognitive (recognizing a patient status change and initiating appropriate responses) skill performance. Student confidence and satisfaction were surveyed before and after the simulation experience. Students' confidence in their technical, behavioral, and cognitive skill performance increased from "somewhat confident" to "confident" following the critical care simulation experience. Student satisfaction was highly positive, with strong agreement the simulation experience was valuable, reinforced course content, and was a useful educational tool. Limitations of the study were the small sample from one university and a control group was not included. Incorporating a simulated, interprofessional critical care experience into a required clinical course improved physical therapist student confidence in technical, behavioral, and cognitive performance measures and was associated with high

  20. Gender, Math Confidence, and Grit: Relationships with Quantitative Skills and Performance in an Undergraduate Biology Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, K M; Einarson, J

    2017-01-01

    In a world filled with big data, mathematical models, and statistics, the development of strong quantitative skills is becoming increasingly critical for modern biologists. Teachers in this field must understand how students acquire quantitative skills and explore barriers experienced by students when developing these skills. In this study, we examine the interrelationships among gender, grit, and math confidence for student performance on a pre-post quantitative skills assessment and overall performance in an undergraduate biology course. Here, we show that females significantly underperformed relative to males on a quantitative skills assessment at the start of term. However, females showed significantly higher gains over the semester, such that the gender gap in performance was nearly eliminated by the end of the semester. Math confidence plays an important role in the performance on both the pre and post quantitative skills assessments and overall performance in the course. The effect of grit on student performance, however, is mediated by a student's math confidence; as math confidence increases, the positive effect of grit decreases. Consequently, the positive impact of a student's grittiness is observed most strongly for those students with low math confidence. We also found grit to be positively associated with the midterm score and the final grade in the course. Given the relationships established in this study among gender, grit, and math confidence, we provide "instructor actions" from the literature that can be applied in the classroom to promote the development of quantitative skills in light of our findings. © 2017 K. M. Flanagan and J. Einarson. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2017 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http

  1. A Regions of Confidence Based Approach to Enhance Segmentation with Shape Priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appia, Vikram V; Ganapathy, Balaji; Abufadel, Amer; Yezzi, Anthony; Faber, Tracy

    2010-01-18

    We propose an improved region based segmentation model with shape priors that uses labels of confidence/interest to exclude the influence of certain regions in the image that may not provide useful information for segmentation. These could be regions in the image which are expected to have weak, missing or corrupt edges or they could be regions in the image which the user is not interested in segmenting, but are part of the object being segmented. In the training datasets, along with the manual segmentations we also generate an auxiliary map indicating these regions of low confidence/interest. Since, all the training images are acquired under similar conditions, we can train our algorithm to estimate these regions as well. Based on this training we will generate a map which indicates the regions in the image that are likely to contain no useful information for segmentation. We then use a parametric model to represent the segmenting curve as a combination of shape priors obtained by representing the training data as a collection of signed distance functions. We evolve an objective energy functional to evolve the global parameters that are used to represent the curve. We vary the influence each pixel has on the evolution of these parameters based on the confidence/interest label. When we use these labels to indicate the regions with low confidence; the regions containing accurate edges will have a dominant role in the evolution of the curve and the segmentation in the low confidence regions will be approximated based on the training data. Since our model evolves global parameters, it improves the segmentation even in the regions with accurate edges. This is because we eliminate the influence of the low confidence regions which may mislead the final segmentation. Similarly when we use the labels to indicate the regions which are not of importance, we will get a better segmentation of the object in the regions we are interested in.

  2. The role of the public sector's research programme in support of the authorities and in building confidence on the safety of spent fuel disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuori, S.; Rasilainen, K.

    2002-01-01

    A multiphase research programme was launched in 1989 to support the Finnish authorities in their activities concerning spent fuel management. The Finnish programme for spent fuel management has so far managed to keep its original time schedule at least partly due to clearly defined responsibilities between the nuclear energy producing industry and the authorities. It appears that the public sector's research programme has been successful in its supporting role by providing research results both on technical/ natural science and social science issues. In addition, the research programme has contributed directly and indirectly in building confidence on the post-closure and operational safety of a spent fuel disposal facility. (authors)

  3. Confidence and sensitivity of sea-level reconstructions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde

    For the last two decades, satellite altimetry has provided a near-global view of spatial and temporal patterns in sea surface height (SSH). When combined with records from tide gauges, a historical reconstruction of sea level can be obtained; while tide gauge records span up to 200 years back...... nature of the data fields. We examine the sensitivity of a reconstruction with respect to the length of calibration time series, and the spatial distribution of tide gauges or other proxy data. In addition, we consider the eect of isolating certain physical phenomena (e.g. ENSO) and annual signals...... and modelling these outside the reconstruction. The implementation is currently based on data from compound satellite datasets (i.e., two decades of altimetry), and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) model, an existing reconstruction, where a calibration period can be easily extracted and our model...

  4. False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

    2013-12-01

    Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Power and confidence in professions: lessons for occupational therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Florence A

    2010-12-01

    Powerful professions have the capacity to obtain leadership positions, advocate successfully in the policy arena, and secure the resources necessary to achieve their professional goals. Within the occupational therapy profession, cultivating power and confidence among our practitioners is essential to realize our full capacity for meeting society's occupational needs. Drawing from a historical analysis of the medical and nursing professions, this paper discusses the implications of power and disempowerment among health professions for their practitioners, clients, and public image. Theoretical perspectives on power from social psychology, politics, organizational management, and post-structuralism are introduced and their relevance to the profession of occupational therapy is examined. The paper concludes with recommendations for occupational therapy practitioners to analyze their individual sources of power and evaluate opportunities to develop confidence and secure power for their professional work--in venues both in and outside the workplace.

  6. Radioactive waste and civil society: Toward confidence and efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferte, Jacques de la

    2001-01-01

    Radioactive waste management is a typical area where a confident and efficient relationship between decision makers and civil society is required to achieve progress. The Radioactive waste management community must now learn the lessons and borrow from the good and bad experiences of government and industry in the area of good governance. Key ingredients include not only good science and technology, but also an early association of stakeholders with the waste management development process, so as to care for social values and generate confidence in the public, notably at the local level. The new NEA Forum will now organise its future work around this concept, collecting and sharing the experience among its members, and working together in an on-going multi-year programme

  7. Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

  8. Confidence Level Computation for Combining Searches with Small Statistics

    OpenAIRE

    Junk, Thomas

    1999-01-01

    This article describes an efficient procedure for computing approximate confidence levels for searches for new particles where the expected signal and background levels are small enough to require the use of Poisson statistics. The results of many independent searches for the same particle may be combined easily, regardless of the discriminating variables which may be measured for the candidate events. The effects of systematic uncertainty in the signal and background models are incorporated ...

  9. INTERVENTIONS FOR INCREASING BALANCE & CONFIDENCE IN OLDER ADULTS: A REVIEW

    OpenAIRE

    Foram Dhebar

    2014-01-01

    Elderly is defined as being 65 years of age or older. Geriatrics or geriatric medicine is a specialty that focuses on health care of elderly people. The number of persons above the age of 60 years is fast growing, especially in India. Falls are the leading cause of traumatic brain injury, fractures & the leading cause of emergency department visits by older adults. Low balance confidence is a major health problem among older adults restricting their participation in daily life. Objective of t...

  10. Confidence and Use of Communication Skills in Medical Students

    OpenAIRE

    Mahnaz Jalalvandi; Akhtar Jamali; Ali Taghipoor-Zahir; Mohammad-Reza Sohrabi

    2014-01-01

    Background: Well-designed interventions can improve the communication skills of physicians. Since the understanding of the current situation is essential for designing effective interventions, this study was performed to determine medical interns’ confidence and use of communication skills.Materials and Methods: This descriptive-analytical study was performed in spring 2013 within 3 branches of Islamic Azad University (Tehran, Mashhad, and Yazd), on 327 randomly selected interns. Data gatheri...

  11. Effects of Parental Divorce on Marital Commitment and Confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Whitton, Sarah W.; Rhoades, Galena K.; Stanley, Scott M.; Markman, Howard J.

    2008-01-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that, compared to offspring of non-divorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes towards marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that, when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their ...

  12. Autism Spectrum Disorder and High Confidence Gene Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Mai, MOCHIZUKI

    2017-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurological developmental disorder whose mechanism isyet unclear. However, recent ASD studies, which employ exome- and genome-wide sequencing,have identified some high-confidence ASD genes. Those ASD studies have revealed that CHD8is likely associated with ASD. In this article, we highlight that CHD8 may regulate othercandidate ASD risk genes. Current research indicates that there exist some thousand autismsusceptibility candidate genes. Moreover, we sugge...

  13. Improving students' confidence levels in communicating with patients and introducing students to the importance of history taking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halkett, Georgia K.B.; McKay, Janice; Shaw, Therese

    2011-01-01

    Background: Radiographers can have a marked impact on the way patients deal with their illness because they are often one of the first health professionals that patients see. Therefore, it is essential that radiographers have effective communication skills and are able to provide patients with the information they require. The purpose of this study was to test whether the introduction of additional education on communication and history taking improved students' communication skills. Methods: A short program on communication skills and history taking was introduced to third year undergraduate students prior to a clinical placements period. Three workshops were run; the third included a role play exercise using professional actors as simulated patients. Students completed questionnaires at baseline, following the three workshops and after their subsequent clinical placement. Descriptive statistics were calculated and logistic regression Generalized Estimating Equations models were fitted to test for differences over time in students' confidence levels. Results: Twenty-seven out of 36 students completed the baseline and final surveys. Students indicated they were highly satisfied with the workshops provided. Statistically significant differences were observed for seven items relating to student's confidence levels in communicating with patients after they had participated in the workshops and their subsequent clinical placement. Conclusion: The use of communication skills workshops involving actor/patients is an effective method of assisting students to develop their communication and history taking skills. This program has now been implemented into the mentioned undergraduate course and it is recommended that radiography students at other institutions be provided with the opportunity to develop their communication and history taking skills.

  14. Improving students' confidence levels in communicating with patients and introducing students to the importance of history taking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halkett, Georgia K.B., E-mail: g.halkett@curtin.edu.a [WA Centre for Cancer and Palliative Care/Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Western Australia (Australia); Department of Imaging and Applied Physics, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Western Australia (Australia); McKay, Janice [Department of Imaging and Applied Physics, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Western Australia (Australia); Shaw, Therese [Child Health Promotion Research Centre, School of Exercise, Biomedical and Health Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Western Australia (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Background: Radiographers can have a marked impact on the way patients deal with their illness because they are often one of the first health professionals that patients see. Therefore, it is essential that radiographers have effective communication skills and are able to provide patients with the information they require. The purpose of this study was to test whether the introduction of additional education on communication and history taking improved students' communication skills. Methods: A short program on communication skills and history taking was introduced to third year undergraduate students prior to a clinical placements period. Three workshops were run; the third included a role play exercise using professional actors as simulated patients. Students completed questionnaires at baseline, following the three workshops and after their subsequent clinical placement. Descriptive statistics were calculated and logistic regression Generalized Estimating Equations models were fitted to test for differences over time in students' confidence levels. Results: Twenty-seven out of 36 students completed the baseline and final surveys. Students indicated they were highly satisfied with the workshops provided. Statistically significant differences were observed for seven items relating to student's confidence levels in communicating with patients after they had participated in the workshops and their subsequent clinical placement. Conclusion: The use of communication skills workshops involving actor/patients is an effective method of assisting students to develop their communication and history taking skills. This program has now been implemented into the mentioned undergraduate course and it is recommended that radiography students at other institutions be provided with the opportunity to develop their communication and history taking skills.

  15. Building public confidence in the world's nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, C.D.

    1996-01-01

    Public confidence in the nuclear industry requires two things, which are trust and understanding. Trust is an emotional response based upon an instinctive reaction. Understanding, on the other hand, is an intellectual response based upon facts. To gain public confidence, both of these levels must be communicated and proactive strategies must be implemented to do this. To achieve this objective will require confidence and courage in communication programs. Each company operating in the nuclear sector must be proactive in building its individual reputation and must not retreat from controversy. Similarly, each industry body must continue the Herculean task of building understanding. The nuclear industry has powerful arguments. ICI, BP or Ford did not achieve their licences to operate by keeping their heads down, they achieved their current market positions by building a positive corporate reputation within their respective industrial contexts over many decades. In order to achieve a similar position for the nuclear industry and the companies, their examples must be followed. If it is continued to 'keep the heads down' in the trenches, public opinion will surely bury within it. (G.K.)

  16. Re-thinking accountability: trust versus confidence in medical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checkland, K; Marshall, M; Harrison, S

    2004-04-01

    In seeking to prevent a reoccurrence of scandals such as that involving cardiac surgery in Bristol, the UK government has adopted a model of regulation that uses rules and surveillance as a way of both improving the quality of care delivered and increasing confidence in healthcare institutions. However, this approach may actually act to reduce confidence and trust while also reducing the moral motivation of practitioners. Accountability in health care is discussed, and it is suggested that openness about the difficult dilemmas that arise when practitioners have a duty to be accountable to more than one audience may be an alternative means of restoring trust. A greater emphasis on the sharing of information between individual health professionals and their patients would increase trust and would allow patients to hold their doctors to account for the quality of care they receive. Concentrating more on developing trust by the sharing of information and less on the futile search for complete confidence in systems and rules may improve the quality of care delivered while also nurturing the moral motivation of professionals upon which the delivery of high quality health care depends.

  17. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  18. Confidence limits for parameters of Poisson and binomial distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, L.M.

    1976-04-01

    The confidence limits for the frequency in a Poisson process and for the proportion of successes in a binomial process were calculated and tabulated for the situations in which the observed values of the frequency or proportion and an a priori distribution of these parameters are available. Methods are used that produce limits with exactly the stated confidence levels. The confidence interval [a,b] is calculated so that Pr [a less than or equal to lambda less than or equal to b c,μ], where c is the observed value of the parameter, and μ is the a priori hypothesis of the distribution of this parameter. A Bayesian type analysis is used. The intervals calculated are narrower and appreciably different from results, known to be conservative, that are often used in problems of this type. Pearson and Hartley recognized the characteristics of their methods and contemplated that exact methods could someday be used. The calculation of the exact intervals requires involved numerical analyses readily implemented only on digital computers not available to Pearson and Hartley. A Monte Carlo experiment was conducted to verify a selected interval from those calculated. This numerical experiment confirmed the results of the analytical methods and the prediction of Pearson and Hartley that their published tables give conservative results

  19. Using Facebook to enhance commencing student confidence in clinical skill development: A phenomenological hermeneutic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Bernadette; Cooke, Marie; Walker, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore commencing nursing students' experience of Facebook as an adjunct to on-campus course delivery to determine its impact as a learning strategy for improving confidence in clinical skill development. Approaches supporting nursing students in the development of clinical skills have relied on 'real-life' clinical placements and simulated on-campus clinical laboratories. However students continue to report a lack of confidence in their clinical skills for practice. Social networking sites including Facebook are being used as a learning strategy to stimulate active and collaborative learning approaches. A hermeneutic phenomenological approach was used to provide an understanding of the experience of confidence in clinical skills development for nursing students. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with commencing students about their experience as learners using Facebook and their perceptions of the impact on their clinical skill development. Ten first-year student nurses at one university in south-east Queensland, Australia. Four themes emerged from the data including: 'We're all in this together'; 'I can do this'; 'This is about my future goals and success'; and, 'Real time is not fast enough!'. These themes provide new meaningful insights demonstrating students' sense of confidence in clinical skills was increased through engagement with a dedicated Facebook page. The findings of this study have relevance to academics in the design of learning strategies for clinical courses to further support student confidence and engagement through peer collaboration and active learning processes. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Use of analogues to build technologists' confidence: NAnet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noseck, Ulrich

    2008-01-01

    processes occurring at the geosphere-biosphere interface and in the surface environment. One of the primary outputs of the NAnet project has been the compilation of reviews of more than 70 individual analogue studies with relevance for the near-field, far field or biosphere. Each analogue study review was documented using a standard review template that includes sections concerned with performance assessment relevance and applications, limitations of the analogue, a summary of any particular quantitative information derived from the study, an assessment of the uncertainties associated with the qualitative and quantitative information, an indication of the time-scales covered by the analogue and reference to any applications in communication and links to the primary literature. A simple referencing system was developed that enables safety assessors and communication specialists rapidly to find all those analogues that relate to their specific issues and interests. It is based on a simple matrix that has on one axis the range of materials and on the other axis the range of processes that can occur in the repository system. Intersections of the axes identify unique material-process combinations and analogue studies can be listed at the appropriate intersections. Two generic analogue matrices have been developed, one for the near-field and one for the far-field. Combining analogue studies with field and laboratory investigations provides a powerful means of investigating the natural processes which will occur in the repository environment because the disadvantages of one method are balanced by the advantages of the other. In order to illustrate how analogues can contribute to build technologists confidence, examples for the three different roles of analogues are given. Analogue studies contribute to technologists confidence by increasing the understanding of processes that control the evolution of the repository system over time. Qualitative information from analogues is of

  1. Pilot perception and confidence of location during a simulated helicopter navigation task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ji Hyun; Cowden, Bradley T; Kennedy, Quinn; Schramm, Harrison; Sullivan, Joseph

    2013-09-01

    This paper aims to provide insights into human perception, navigation performance, and confidence in helicopter overland navigation. Helicopter overland navigation is a challenging mission area because it is a complex cognitive task, and failing to recognize when the aircraft is off-course can lead to operational failures and mishaps. A human-in-the-loop experiment to investigate pilot perception during simulated overland navigation by analyzing actual navigation trajectory, pilots' perceived location, and corresponding confidence levels was designed. There were 15 military officers with prior overland navigation experience who completed 4 simulated low-level navigation routes, 2 of which entailed auto-navigation. This route was paused roughly every 30 s for the subject to mark their perceived location on the map and their confidence level using a customized program. Analysis shows that there is no correlation between perceived and actual location of the aircraft, nor between confidence level and actual location. There is, however, some evidence that there is a correlation (rho = -0.60 to approximately 0.65) between perceived location and intended route of flight, suggesting that there is a bias toward believing one is on the intended flight route. If aviation personnel can proactively identify the circumstances in which usual misperceptions occur in navigation, they may reduce mission failure and accident rate. Fleet squadrons and instructional commands can benefit from this study to improve operations that require low-level flight while also improving crew resource management.

  2. Parents' obesity-related behavior and confidence to support behavioral change in their obese child: data from the STAR study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, Lisa N; Xu, Kathleen; Taveras, Elsie M; Hacker, Karen A

    2014-01-01

    Successful childhood obesity interventions frequently focus on behavioral modification and involve parents or family members. Parental confidence in supporting behavior change may be an element of successful family-based prevention efforts. We aimed to determine whether parents' own obesity-related behaviors were related to their confidence in supporting their child's achievement of obesity-related behavioral goals. Cross-sectional analyses of data collected at baseline of a randomized control trial testing a treatment intervention for obese children (n = 787) in primary care settings (n = 14). Five obesity-related behaviors (physical activity, screen time, sugar-sweetened beverage, sleep duration, fast food) were self-reported by parents for themselves and their child. Behaviors were dichotomized on the basis of achievement of behavioral goals. Five confidence questions asked how confident the parent was in helping their child achieve each goal. Logistic regression modeling high confidence was conducted with goal achievement and demographics as independent variables. Parents achieving physical activity or sleep duration goals were significantly more likely to be highly confident in supporting their child's achievement of those goals (physical activity, odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.60; sleep, odds ratio 1.74; 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.79) independent of sociodemographic variables and child's current behavior. Parental achievements of TV watching and fast food goals were also associated with confidence, but significance was attenuated after child's behavior was included in models. Parents' own obesity-related behaviors are factors that may affect their confidence to support their child's behavior change. Providers seeking to prevent childhood obesity should address parent/family behaviors as part of their obesity prevention strategies. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Sewage sludge additive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalvinskas, J. J.; Mueller, W. A.; Ingham, J. D. (Inventor)

    1980-01-01

    The additive is for a raw sewage treatment process of the type where settling tanks are used for the purpose of permitting the suspended matter in the raw sewage to be settled as well as to permit adsorption of the dissolved contaminants in the water of the sewage. The sludge, which settles down to the bottom of the settling tank is extracted, pyrolyzed and activated to form activated carbon and ash which is mixed with the sewage prior to its introduction into the settling tank. The sludge does not provide all of the activated carbon and ash required for adequate treatment of the raw sewage. It is necessary to add carbon to the process and instead of expensive commercial carbon, coal is used to provide the carbon supplement.

  4. Confidence Intervals Verification for Simulated Error Rate Performance of Wireless Communication System

    KAUST Repository

    Smadi, Mahmoud A.

    2012-12-06

    In this paper, we derived an efficient simulation method to evaluate the error rate of wireless communication system. Coherent binary phase-shift keying system is considered with imperfect channel phase recovery. The results presented demonstrate the system performance under very realistic Nakagami-m fading and additive white Gaussian noise channel. On the other hand, the accuracy of the obtained results is verified through running the simulation under a good confidence interval reliability of 95 %. We see that as the number of simulation runs N increases, the simulated error rate becomes closer to the actual one and the confidence interval difference reduces. Hence our results are expected to be of significant practical use for such scenarios. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

  5. Development of free statistical software enabling researchers to calculate confidence levels, clinical significance curves and risk-benefit contours

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakespeare, T.P.; Mukherjee, R.K.; Gebski, V.J.

    2003-01-01

    Confidence levels, clinical significance curves, and risk-benefit contours are tools improving analysis of clinical studies and minimizing misinterpretation of published results, however no software has been available for their calculation. The objective was to develop software to help clinicians utilize these tools. Excel 2000 spreadsheets were designed using only built-in functions, without macros. The workbook was protected and encrypted so that users can modify only input cells. The workbook has 4 spreadsheets for use in studies comparing two patient groups. Sheet 1 comprises instructions and graphic examples for use. Sheet 2 allows the user to input the main study results (e.g. survival rates) into a 2-by-2 table. Confidence intervals (95%), p-value and the confidence level for Treatment A being better than Treatment B are automatically generated. An additional input cell allows the user to determine the confidence associated with a specified level of benefit. For example if the user wishes to know the confidence that Treatment A is at least 10% better than B, 10% is entered. Sheet 2 automatically displays clinical significance curves, graphically illustrating confidence levels for all possible benefits of one treatment over the other. Sheet 3 allows input of toxicity data, and calculates the confidence that one treatment is more toxic than the other. It also determines the confidence that the relative toxicity of the most effective arm does not exceed user-defined tolerability. Sheet 4 automatically calculates risk-benefit contours, displaying the confidence associated with a specified scenario of minimum benefit and maximum risk of one treatment arm over the other. The spreadsheet is freely downloadable at www.ontumor.com/professional/statistics.htm A simple, self-explanatory, freely available spreadsheet calculator was developed using Excel 2000. The incorporated decision-making tools can be used for data analysis and improve the reporting of results of any

  6. Assessing Confidence in Performance Assessments Using an Evidence Support Logic Methodology: An Application of Tesla

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egan, M.; Paulley, A.; Lehman, L.; Lowe, J.; Rochette, E.; Baker, St.

    2009-01-01

    The assessment of uncertainties and their implications is a key requirement when undertaking performance assessment (PA) of radioactive waste facilities. Decisions based on the outcome of such assessments become translated into judgments about confidence in the information they provide. This confidence, in turn, depends on uncertainties in the underlying evidence. Even if there is a large amount of information supporting an assessment, it may be only partially relevant, incomplete or less than completely reliable. In order to develop a measure of confidence in the outcome, sources of uncertainty need to be identified and adequately addressed in the development of the PA, or in any overarching strategic decision-making processes. This paper describes a trial application of the technique of Evidence Support Logic (ESL), which has been designed for application in support of 'high stakes' decisions, where important aspects of system performance are subject to uncertainty. The aims of ESL are to identify the amount of uncertainty or conflict associated with evidence relating to a particular decision, and to guide understanding of how evidence combines to support confidence in judgments. Elicitation techniques are used to enable participants in the process to develop a logical hypothesis model that best represents the relationships between different sources of evidence to the proposition under examination. The aim is to identify key areas of subjectivity and other sources of potential bias in the use of evidence (whether for or against the proposition) to support judgments of confidence. Propagation algorithms are used to investigate the overall implications of the logic according to the strength of the underlying evidence and associated uncertainties. (authors)

  7. Self-Confidence and Quality of Life in Women Undergoing Treatment for Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafaee, Fahimeh Sehati; Mirghafourvand, Mojgan; Harischi, Sepideh; Esfahani, Ali; Amirzehni, Jalileh

    2018-01-01

    Introduction: Quality of life is an important topic in the study of chronic diseases, especially cancer which can have a major effect on patient self-confidence. This study was conducted to determine quality of life and its relationship with self-confidence in women undergoing treatment for breast cancer. Methods: This cross-sectional, descriptive, analytical study was conducted in 2016 on 166 women with breast cancer undergoing treatment at Ghazi, Al-Zahra, International and/or Shams hospitals in Tabriz. The subjects were selected through convenience sampling. A personal-demographic questionnaire, the Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire (QLQ-C30), and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES) were completed for each patient. The data obtained were analyzed using independent t-tests, one-way ANOVA, multivariate linear regression and Pearson’s correlation coefficients. Findings: The mean total score of quality of life was 59.1±17.4, ranging from 0 to 100. The highest mean score was obtained in the cognitive subscale (74.9±23.8) and the lowest in the emotional subscale (51.4±21.1). The mean score for self-confidence was 0.3 with a standard deviation of 0.1, ranging from -1 to +1. There was a significant positive relationship between self-confidence and quality of life, except in three symptom subscales for diarrhea, constipation and loss of appetite (Pquality of life. Discussion: Given the significant relationship between quality of life and self-confidence, health care providers may need to pay special attention to women undergoing treatment for breast cancer and perform timely measures to maintain their belief in themselves. PMID:29582628

  8. Decoded fMRI neurofeedback can induce bidirectional confidence changes within single participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Lau, Hakwan; Kawato, Mitsuo

    2017-04-01

    Neurofeedback studies using real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (rt-fMRI) have recently incorporated the multi-voxel pattern decoding approach, allowing for fMRI to serve as a tool to manipulate fine-grained neural activity embedded in voxel patterns. Because of its tremendous potential for clinical applications, certain questions regarding decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) must be addressed. Specifically, can the same participants learn to induce neural patterns in opposite directions in different sessions? If so, how does previous learning affect subsequent induction effectiveness? These questions are critical because neurofeedback effects can last for months, but the short- to mid-term dynamics of such effects are unknown. Here we employed a within-subjects design, where participants underwent two DecNef training sessions to induce behavioural changes of opposing directionality (up or down regulation of perceptual confidence in a visual discrimination task), with the order of training counterbalanced across participants. Behavioral results indicated that the manipulation was strongly influenced by the order and the directionality of neurofeedback training. We applied nonlinear mathematical modeling to parametrize four main consequences of DecNef: main effect of change in confidence, strength of down-regulation of confidence relative to up-regulation, maintenance of learning effects, and anterograde learning interference. Modeling results revealed that DecNef successfully induced bidirectional confidence changes in different sessions within single participants. Furthermore, the effect of up- compared to down-regulation was more prominent, and confidence changes (regardless of the direction) were largely preserved even after a week-long interval. Lastly, the effect of the second session was markedly diminished as compared to the effect of the first session, indicating strong anterograde learning interference. These results are interpreted in the framework

  9. Disarmament and confidence-building in North-East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Il Nam

    1992-01-01

    Disarmament and confidence building are essential issues to be addressed urgently as they are directly linked with national security. The successful solutions of this issue will ensure world peace and security. These statements have special significance if applied to the situation in North-East Asia and particularly Korean Peninsula. Even under the circumstances of the continued existence of the United States Nuclear Threat, the Government of North Korea has concluded a safeguards agreement and has been inspected by IAEA, thus indicating constant effort to denuclearize the Korean peninsula

  10. On a linear method in bootstrap confidence intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Pallini

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available A linear method for the construction of asymptotic bootstrap confidence intervals is proposed. We approximate asymptotically pivotal and non-pivotal quantities, which are smooth functions of means of n independent and identically distributed random variables, by using a sum of n independent smooth functions of the same analytical form. Errors are of order Op(n-3/2 and Op(n-2, respectively. The linear method allows a straightforward approximation of bootstrap cumulants, by considering the set of n independent smooth functions as an original random sample to be resampled with replacement.

  11. Station blackout and public confidence: a cautionary tale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cave, L.

    1990-01-01

    The recent ''station blackout'' (ie loss of on-site and off-site AC power) incidents at the Vogtle PWR in the US and Hinkley Point B AGR in the Uk have led to further public concern about the safety of nuclear power, even though in each case the actual increase in the chance of an accident leading to a release of radioactivity to the environment was negligible. The industry may be wise to invest precautionary measures to reduce the frequency of such incidents and to increase public confidence. (author)

  12. Establishing Quantitative Within-Subject Confidence Limits For Clinical Stereoroentgenographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korn, Edward L.; Baumrind, Sheldon; Chafetz, Neil; Curry, Sean; Moffitt, Francis

    1983-07-01

    It is now quite clear that under ideal conditions, discrete points can be located on x-ray films with standard deviations of less than 50 i. However, under routine clinical conditions, such considerations as individual variation in anatomy, movement of the subject between exposures, and variations in image quality combine to produce considerable reductions in the confidence which can be placed in quantitative assessments made from stereoroentgenographic films. This paper discusses some considerations involved in designing mathematical models in such a way as to optimize the use of imperfect data in answering specific clinical questions.

  13. The public information challenge: confidence and credibility through communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spence, H.J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Canada's Atomic Energy Control Board, considered the oldest independent nuclear regulatory body in the world, has made significant progress toward openness and visibility through public information policy initiatives and communications activities, particularly in the last five years. A number of public information projects are described, and successes as well as disappointments are outlined. The importance in terms of enhanced credibility and public confidence in the regulatory agency is stressed. In looking toward the future, the linking of communications to the operational functions and activities of the regulator is presented as a key requirement. (author)

  14. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-01-01

    An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...

  15. How Effective is a Dental Workshop at Improving the Knowledge and Confidence of Medical Students in the Management of Dental Emergencies?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George R. Deeb

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of a three-hour hands-on workshop for medical students and residents on their pre- and postcourse knowledge and confidence in managing dental emergencies. A 1-hour lecture followed by four 20-minute “hands-on” skill stations on dental mannequins was administered to a group of 30 medical students and residents. Pre- and postworkshop questionnaire surveys were conducted. There was a significant increase in the percent of attendees who responded correctly to three of the four knowledge questions following the workshop ( P -value < 0.005. Confidence, as expressed in various statements, about treating dental emergencies was significantly improved after the lecture for eight of the nine statements. These findings indicate that dental knowledge is generally not provided during medical training. Our interactive workshop appeared to be effective in increasing this knowledge and self-reported confidence in handling dental emergencies. These findings clearly indicate the need for additional dental education during medical school. The use of a hands-on workshop may be one model for achieving this goal.

  16. Empowerment as Interactions that Generate Self-Confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poder, Poul

    2010-01-01

    to address this gap in understanding by theorizing how confidence and other positive emotions contribute to personal agency, which is an essential aspect of the empowerment process.                       It is generally understood that confidence – meaning faith in oneself as opposed to conceit or arrogance...... by particular social interactions that promote recognition and access to relevant resources for action. Drawing on emotion-focused sociological theory about agency and emotional energy, and Fredrickson’s ‘build and broaden’ theory of positive emotions, I argue that the focus on consciousness and intentionality...... as the defining features of human agency has led us to downplay the fact that agency is primarily an emotional phenomenon. As such, it is also dynamic and situational, since it is highly dependent on interactions that engender emotional energy and positive emotions that fuel and widen agency. As an example...

  17. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  18. Nuclear energy communications in France: gaining public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaussade, J.-P.

    1990-01-01

    Nuclear power plants today are an accepted part of the French landscape; a total of 54 units have been constructed on some 20 different sites. They have been relatively well accepted by the general public and, in particular, by those people living in the vicinity of plants. This favourable situation, however, did not come about automatically - it required a great deal of effort in terms of public information, starting during the 1970s. This effort must be maintained, especially since public confidence in nuclear energy was severely shaken by the Chernobyl accident. Our success in pursuing France's planned construction programme depends on our ability to build on this confidence. Indeed, since 1987, we have had to rethink our communications strategy. However, Electricite de France (EDF) is not alone in this; public authorities, the SCSIN (an Industry Department equivalent to the NRC), CEA (French atomic energy commission), in its capacity as a research organisation, together with plant constructor Framatome and nuclear fuel company Cogema, all have a role to play in this communications drive. The key to our communications campaign lies in listening to public opinion. Opinion polls and qualitative surveys allow us to judge public awareness and pinpoint expectations and concerns. This article summarises the main surveys we have carried out. (3 figures) (Author)

  19. Confidence Intervals for Asbestos Fiber Counts: Approximate Negative Binomial Distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartley, David; Slaven, James; Harper, Martin

    2017-03-01

    The negative binomial distribution is adopted for analyzing asbestos fiber counts so as to account for both the sampling errors in capturing only a finite number of fibers and the inevitable human variation in identifying and counting sampled fibers. A simple approximation to this distribution is developed for the derivation of quantiles and approximate confidence limits. The success of the approximation depends critically on the use of Stirling's expansion to sufficient order, on exact normalization of the approximating distribution, on reasonable perturbation of quantities from the normal distribution, and on accurately approximating sums by inverse-trapezoidal integration. Accuracy of the approximation developed is checked through simulation and also by comparison to traditional approximate confidence intervals in the specific case that the negative binomial distribution approaches the Poisson distribution. The resulting statistics are shown to relate directly to early research into the accuracy of asbestos sampling and analysis. Uncertainty in estimating mean asbestos fiber concentrations given only a single count is derived. Decision limits (limits of detection) and detection limits are considered for controlling false-positive and false-negative detection assertions and are compared to traditional limits computed assuming normal distributions. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society 2017.

  20. Robust, Efficient Depth Reconstruction With Hierarchical Confidence-Based Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Li; Chen, Ke; Song, Mingli; Tao, Dacheng; Chen, Gang; Chen, Chun

    2017-07-01

    In recent years, taking photos and capturing videos with mobile devices have become increasingly popular. Emerging applications based on the depth reconstruction technique have been developed, such as Google lens blur. However, depth reconstruction is difficult due to occlusions, non-diffuse surfaces, repetitive patterns, and textureless surfaces, and it has become more difficult due to the unstable image quality and uncontrolled scene condition in the mobile setting. In this paper, we present a novel hierarchical framework with multi-view confidence-based matching for robust, efficient depth reconstruction in uncontrolled scenes. Particularly, the proposed framework combines local cost aggregation with global cost optimization in a complementary manner that increases efficiency and accuracy. A depth map is efficiently obtained in a coarse-to-fine manner by using an image pyramid. Moreover, confidence maps are computed to robustly fuse multi-view matching cues, and to constrain the stereo matching on a finer scale. The proposed framework has been evaluated with challenging indoor and outdoor scenes, and has achieved robust and efficient depth reconstruction.

  1. Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

  2. Curling for Confidence: Psychophysical Benefits of Curling for Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Rachael C; Rakhamilova, Zina; Gage, William H; Baker, Joseph

    2018-04-01

    While physical activity is increasingly promoted for older adults, there is a paucity of sport promotion, which has distinct benefits from exercise and remains stereotypically associated with younger age. Curling is a moderately intense and safe sport that continues to gain popularity; however, no research has investigated psychophysical benefits of curling for older adults. The present study compares high-experience (20+ years; n = 63) and low-experience (<20 years; n = 53) curlers (aged 60+ years) with older adult noncurlers (n = 44) on measures of daily functionality, balance confidence, and perceptions of the aging process. While no significant differences were found between high- and low-experience curlers, any level of experience reported significantly better functionality, physical confidence, and aging attitudes compared to noncurlers (p ≤ .05). Although further research is necessary, the results suggest that any level of curling experience can enhance older adult psychophysical well-being, and warrants consideration for physical activity promotion and falls prevention programs.

  3. Growth Estimators and Confidence Intervals for the Mean of Negative Binomial Random Variables with Unknown Dispersion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Shilane

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The negative binomial distribution becomes highly skewed under extreme dispersion. Even at moderately large sample sizes, the sample mean exhibits a heavy right tail. The standard normal approximation often does not provide adequate inferences about the data's expected value in this setting. In previous work, we have examined alternative methods of generating confidence intervals for the expected value. These methods were based upon Gamma and Chi Square approximations or tail probability bounds such as Bernstein's inequality. We now propose growth estimators of the negative binomial mean. Under high dispersion, zero values are likely to be overrepresented in the data. A growth estimator constructs a normal-style confidence interval by effectively removing a small, predetermined number of zeros from the data. We propose growth estimators based upon multiplicative adjustments of the sample mean and direct removal of zeros from the sample. These methods do not require estimating the nuisance dispersion parameter. We will demonstrate that the growth estimators' confidence intervals provide improved coverage over a wide range of parameter values and asymptotically converge to the sample mean. Interestingly, the proposed methods succeed despite adding both bias and variance to the normal approximation.

  4. [Effects of group psychological counseling on self-confidence and social adaptation of burn patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Rui; Wang, Yishen; Li, Na; He, Ting; Shi, Mengna; Liang, Yanyan; Zhu, Chan; Zhou, Yongbo; Qi, Zongshi; Hu, Dahai

    2014-12-01

    To explore the effects of group psychological counseling on the self-confidence and social adaptation of burn patients during the course of rehabilitation. Sixty-four burn patients conforming to the inclusion criteria and hospitalized from January 2012 to January 2014 in Xijing Hospital were divided into trial group and control group according to the method of rehabilitation, with 32 cases in each group. Patients in the two groups were given ordinary rehabilitation training for 8 weeks, and the patients in trial group were given a course of group psychological counseling in addition. The Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale was used to evaluate the changes in self-confidence levels, and the number of patients with inferiority complex, normal feeling, self-confidence, and over self-confidence were counted before and after treatment. The Abbreviated Burn-Specific Health Scale was used to evaluate physical function, psychological function, social relationship, health condition, and general condition before and after treatment to evaluate the social adaptation of patients. Data were processed with t test, chi-square test, Mann-Whitney U test, and Wilcoxon test. (1) After treatment, the self-confidence levels of patients in trial group were significantly higher than those in control group (Z = -2.573, P 0.05). (2) After treatment, the scores of psychological function, social relationship, health condition, and general condition were (87 ± 3), (47.8 ± 3.6), (49 ± 3), and (239 ± 10) points in trial group, which were significantly higher than those in control group [(79 ± 4), (38.3 ± 5.6), (46 ± 4), and (231 ± 9) points, with t values respectively -8.635, -8.125, -3.352, -3.609, P values below 0.01]. After treatment, the scores of physical function, psychological function, social relationship, health condition, and general condition in trial group were significantly higher than those before treatment (with t values from -33.282 to -19.515, P values below 0.05). The scores

  5. Non-proliferation and confidence-building measures in Asia and the Pacific

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    In the face of improved international relations, regional and subregional issues have acquired additional urgency and importance in the field of disarmament and international security. The pursuit of regional solutions to regional problems is thus being actively encouraged by the international community. Towards this end, the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs is seeking to promote regional approaches to disarmament either through the united nations regional centres for peace and Disarmament or cooperation with individual Governments. Within this framework this conference was dealing with non-proliferation and confidence-building measures in Asia and the Pacific region

  6. Does osteoporosis predispose falls? a study on obstacle avoidance and balance confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duysens Jacques

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Osteoporosis is associated with changes in balance and physical performance and has psychosocial consequences which increase the risk of falling. Most falls occur during walking; therefore an efficient obstacle avoidance performance might contribute to a reduction in fall risk. Since it was shown that persons with osteoporosis are unstable during obstacle crossing it was hypothesized that they more frequently hit obstacles, specifically under challenging conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate whether obstacle avoidance ability was affected in persons with osteoporosis compared to a comparison group of a community sample of older adults. Methods Obstacle avoidance performance was measured on a treadmill and compared between persons with osteoporosis (n = 85 and the comparison group (n = 99. The obstacle was released at different available response times (ART to create different levels of difficulty by increasing time pressure. Furthermore, balance confidence, measured with the short ABC-questionnaire, was compared between the groups. Results No differences were found between the groups in success rates on the obstacle avoidance task (p = 0.173. Furthermore, the persons with osteoporosis had similar levels of balance confidence as the comparison group (p = 0.091. The level of balance confidence was not associated with the performance on the obstacle avoidance task (p = 0.145. Conclusion Obstacle avoidance abilities were not impaired in persons with osteoporosis and they did not experience less balance confidence than the comparison group. These findings imply that persons with osteoporosis do not have an additional risk of falling because of poorer obstacle avoidance abilities.

  7. eMolTox: prediction of molecular toxicity with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Changge; Svensson, Fredrik; Zoufir, Azedine; Bender, Andreas

    2018-03-07

    In this work we present eMolTox, a web server for the prediction of potential toxicity associated with a given molecule. 174 toxicology-related in vitro/vivo experimental datasets were used for model construction and Mondrian conformal prediction was used to estimate the confidence of the resulting predictions. Toxic substructure analysis is also implemented in eMolTox. eMolTox predicts and displays a wealth of information of potential molecular toxicities for safety analysis in drug development. The eMolTox Server is freely available for use on the web at http://xundrug.cn/moltox. chicago.ji@gmail.com or ab454@cam.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  8. Editorial: disarmament, non proliferation, confidence-building measures, armament control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soutou, Georges-Henri

    2015-01-01

    After having described the vicious circle existing between disarmament and security as it appeared before and during the first World War, the author deals with the specific case of nuclear disarmament as it was first addressed just after the Second World War, and was then not accepted by the Russians. He comments the political and strategical approach adopted by the Kennedy administration, notably within the context of severe crises (Berlin and Cuba). This resulted in the re-establishment of a relationship between war and policy as defined by Clausewitz, but based on a trilogy of three inseparable pairs: deterrence and armament control, armament control and non proliferation, armament control and confidence-building measures. The author shows that this trilogy has been somehow operating until the end of Cold War, and that nothing works anymore since the end of Cold War and of the bipolar world

  9. Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morand, J.; Deperas-Standylo, J.; Urbanik, W.; Moss, R.; Hachem, S.; Sauerwein, W.; Wojcik, A.

    2008-01-01

    The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta. (authors)

  10. Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  11. Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morand, Josselin; Deperas-Standylo, Joanna; Urbanik, Witold; Moss, Raymond; Hachem, Sabet; Sauerwein, Wolfgang; Wojcik, Andrzej

    2008-01-01

    The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta.

  12. Normalization and psychometric properties of career skills confidence inventory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Jafari

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates normalization and psychometric properties of career skills confidence inventory. For this purpose, we use Betz’s questionnaire [Betz, N. E., Harmon, L., & Borgen, F. (1996. The relationships of self- efficacy for the Holland themes to gender, occupational group membership, and vocational interests. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 43, 90-98.], which consists of 60 questions in three groups of self-awareness, exploration and planning. The study distributes the questionnaire among 600 randomly selected students and analyzes the feedback using Pearson correlation ratios. The results indicate that there are some positive and meaningful correlations between three component and career counseling. There are also positive and meaningful relationships among three components of self-awareness, exploration and planning.

  13. The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence celebrates a decade of work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, C.; Mays, C.; Diaconu, D.

    2010-01-01

    Since its foundation in 2000, the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) has fostered constructive dialogues and interactions with hundreds of interested parties in radioactive waste management, ranging from specialists and academic researchers, national and local politicians to local stakeholders and associations. Many of those partners came to Paris in September 2010 to participate in the colloquium 'Looking Back, Looking Forward in Stakeholder Engagement'. This Ten- year Anniversary Colloquium as well as the FSC's eleventh regular meeting on the following two days were open to all interested parties. This article describes the Forum and the online reports in which learning is shared. It highlights the two major topics discussed at the Colloquium and reviews the joint evaluation made there of FSC achievements. Finally, it points to the directions selected for a new decade of work

  14. Stakeholder confidence: observations from the viewpoint of ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, P.A.

    2003-01-01

    Discussions among the participants of this Forum on Stakeholder Confidence Workshop as well as the Canadian Context and field trip to the Municipality of Port Hope and Clarington often turned to foundational social concerns in radioactive waste facility siting. Intertwined in these topics were less obvious but persistent ethical concerns. Below I articulate some of these ethical issues. I do this by describing four observations I made throughout the week. I suggest that these observations be examined from the viewpoint of ethics and reflect on their complexity. I initiate this paper with a preliminary discussion of the expression 'ethical assessment' referred to throughout the workshop. This expression is key to Canada's new Nuclear Waste Fuel Act (NWFA) requiring proof that this type of assessment occurs in the consideration of potential concepts and hosts for the disposal of nuclear waste. (author)

  15. CONSEL: for assessing the confidence of phylogenetic tree selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimodaira, H; Hasegawa, M

    2001-12-01

    CONSEL is a program to assess the confidence of the tree selection by giving the p-values for the trees. The main thrust of the program is to calculate the p-value of the Approximately Unbiased (AU) test using the multi-scale bootstrap technique. This p-value is less biased than the other conventional p-values such as the Bootstrap Probability (BP), the Kishino-Hasegawa (KH) test, the Shimodaira-Hasegawa (SH) test, and the Weighted Shimodaira-Hasegawa (WSH) test. CONSEL calculates all these p-values from the output of the phylogeny program packages such as Molphy, PAML, and PAUP*. Furthermore, CONSEL is applicable to a wide class of problems where the BPs are available. The programs are written in C language. The source code for Unix and the executable binary for DOS are found at http://www.ism.ac.jp/~shimo/ shimo@ism.ac.jp

  16. Comparison of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals Using Monte Carlo Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto S. Flowers-Cano

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Design of hydraulic works requires the estimation of design hydrological events by statistical inference from a probability distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compared coverage of confidence intervals constructed with four bootstrap techniques: percentile bootstrap (BP, bias-corrected bootstrap (BC, accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap (BCA and a modified version of the standard bootstrap (MSB. Different simulation scenarios were analyzed. In some cases, the mother distribution function was fit to the random samples that were generated. In other cases, a distribution function different to the mother distribution was fit to the samples. When the fitted distribution had three parameters, and was the same as the mother distribution, the intervals constructed with the four techniques had acceptable coverage. However, the bootstrap techniques failed in several of the cases in which the fitted distribution had two parameters.

  17. The 95% confidence intervals of error rates and discriminant coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuichi Shinmura

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Fisher proposed a linear discriminant function (Fisher’s LDF. From 1971, we analysed electrocardiogram (ECG data in order to develop the diagnostic logic between normal and abnormal symptoms by Fisher’s LDF and a quadratic discriminant function (QDF. Our four years research was inferior to the decision tree logic developed by the medical doctor. After this experience, we discriminated many data and found four problems of the discriminant analysis. A revised Optimal LDF by Integer Programming (Revised IP-OLDF based on the minimum number of misclassification (minimum NM criterion resolves three problems entirely [13, 18]. In this research, we discuss fourth problem of the discriminant analysis. There are no standard errors (SEs of the error rate and discriminant coefficient. We propose a k-fold crossvalidation method. This method offers a model selection technique and a 95% confidence intervals (C.I. of error rates and discriminant coefficients.

  18. GENERALISED MODEL BASED CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN TWO STAGE CLUSTER SAMPLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Ouma Onyango

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Chambers and Dorfman (2002 constructed bootstrap confidence intervals in model based estimation for finite population totals assuming that auxiliary values are available throughout a target population and that the auxiliary values are independent. They also assumed that the cluster sizes are known throughout the target population. We now extend to two stage sampling in which the cluster sizes are known only for the sampled clusters, and we therefore predict the unobserved part of the population total. Jan and Elinor (2008 have done similar work, but unlike them, we use a general model, in which the auxiliary values are not necessarily independent. We demonstrate that the asymptotic properties of our proposed estimator and its coverage rates are better than those constructed under the model assisted local polynomial regression model.

  19. Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aeyoung Kim

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authentication method, which uses biometrics and confidence interval sets to enhance the security of the log-in process and make it easier as well. The method offers a user-friendly solution for creating and registering strong passwords without the user having to memorize them. Here we also show the results of our experiments which demonstrate the efficiency of this method and how it can be used to protect against a variety of malicious attacks.

  20. How Confident can we be in Flood Risk Assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, B.

    2017-12-01

    Flood risk management should be based on risk analyses quantifying the risk and its reduction for different risk reduction strategies. However, validating risk estimates by comparing model simulations with past observations is hardly possible, since the assessment typically encompasses extreme events and their impacts that have not been observed before. Hence, risk analyses are strongly based on assumptions and expert judgement. This situation opens the door for cognitive biases, such as `illusion of certainty', `overconfidence' or `recency bias'. Such biases operate specifically in complex situations with many factors involved, when uncertainty is high and events are probabilistic, or when close learning feedback loops are missing - aspects that all apply to risk analyses. This contribution discusses how confident we can be in flood risk assessments, and reflects about more rigorous approaches towards their validation.

  1. IMPROVING SEMI-GLOBAL MATCHING: COST AGGREGATION AND CONFIDENCE MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. d’Angelo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Digital elevation models are one of the basic products that can be generated from remotely sensed imagery. The Semi Global Matching (SGM algorithm is a robust and practical algorithm for dense image matching. The connection between SGM and Belief Propagation was recently developed, and based on that improvements such as correction of over-counting the data term, and a new confidence measure have been proposed. Later the MGM algorithm has been proposed, it aims at improving the regularization step of SGM, but has only been evaluated on the Middlebury stereo benchmark so far. This paper evaluates these proposed improvements on the ISPRS satellite stereo benchmark, using a Pleiades Triplet and a Cartosat-1 Stereo pair. The over-counting correction slightly improves matching density, at the expense of adding a few outliers. The MGM cost aggregation shows leads to a slight increase of accuracy.

  2. Stakeholder confidence in effective safety regulation. A regulator's view on the role of independent research capability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotra, Janet; Mohanty, Sitakanto

    2006-01-01

    The authors provided a regulator's view on the role of independent research capability and its relationship to stakeholder confidence. They underscored the NRC's commitment to regulatory openness in its Strategic Plan. A number of actions have been adopted to achieve openness: public access to information about risks, safety and licensee performance that is accurate and timely; enhanced awareness of NRC as an independent regulator; fair and timely process for public involvement in NRC's decision-making; and early public involvement and two-way communication to enhance public confidence in NRC's regulatory process. The presentation reviewed the ways through which the NRC seeks to inspire confidence in its process as independent regulator and in future decisions concerning whether to authorize the U.S. DOE to construct the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain. Key to this will be reviewing all information objectively, making open decisions based on sound, scientific judgements about the facts; and maintaining an open and fair public process, and accessing independent R and D. It was noted that among the requirements for the safety review for the Yucca Mountain repository will be extensive technical and scientific analyses, evaluation of expert judgement, and long-range modelling assessments of expected repository performance. NRC requires independent scientific and engineering analyses to develop technical bases for regulations and guidance; evaluate adequacy of DOE's safety case for a potential repository; assist preparation of NRC Safety Evaluation Report; provide technical support for NRC testimony during licensing hearing; and develop effective outreach and communication tools. Confidence in NRC's use of science and engineering will depend upon: competence; independence; open and fair process; regulatory outcomes that are subject to verification and monitoring. To assist, the NRC established the Centre for Nuclear Waste Regulatory

  3. Confidence interval procedures for Monte Carlo transport simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pederson, S.P.

    1997-01-01

    The problem of obtaining valid confidence intervals based on estimates from sampled distributions using Monte Carlo particle transport simulation codes such as MCNP is examined. Such intervals can cover the true parameter of interest at a lower than nominal rate if the sampled distribution is extremely right-skewed by large tallies. Modifications to the standard theory of confidence intervals are discussed and compared with some existing heuristics, including batched means normality tests. Two new types of diagnostics are introduced to assess whether the conditions of central limit theorem-type results are satisfied: the relative variance of the variance determines whether the sample size is sufficiently large, and estimators of the slope of the right tail of the distribution are used to indicate the number of moments that exist. A simulation study is conducted to quantify the relationship between various diagnostics and coverage rates and to find sample-based quantities useful in indicating when intervals are expected to be valid. Simulated tally distributions are chosen to emulate behavior seen in difficult particle transport problems. Measures of variation in the sample variance s 2 are found to be much more effective than existing methods in predicting when coverage will be near nominal rates. Batched means tests are found to be overly conservative in this regard. A simple but pathological MCNP problem is presented as an example of false convergence using existing heuristics. The new methods readily detect the false convergence and show that the results of the problem, which are a factor of 4 too small, should not be used. Recommendations are made for applying these techniques in practice, using the statistical output currently produced by MCNP

  4. Rasch Analysis of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale in Older Adults Seeking Outpatient Rehabilitation Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ying-Chih; Sindhu, Bhagwant; Lehman, Leigh; Li, Xiaoyan; Yen, Sheng-Che; Kapellusch, Jay

    2018-03-30

    Study Design Cross-sectional study of 5,012 older patients seeking outpatient rehabilitation therapy in 123 clinics. Background The Activities-Specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale measures confidence in performing various ambulatory activities without falling or experiencing a sense of unsteadiness. Objectives Our purposes were to: (1) examine the ABC Scale (0-100) using the Rasch analysis, (2) assess statistically reliable change, and (3) develop a functional staging to guide clinical interpretation of the patient's improvement. Methods We examined rating scale structure, item difficulty hierarchy, item fit, person-item match, separation index, differential item functioning (DIF), test precision, and unidimensionality. Additionally, we estimated the minimal detectable change (MDC) and developed a functional staging. Results Item 'walking outside on icy sidewalks' was the most difficult item, while 'reach for a small can off a shelf at eye level' was the easiest item. Overall, average patient ability estimates of 56.2 (20.3) was slightly higher than the average item difficulty estimates of 45.9 (7.8). With a separation index equaled to 3.65, the ABC items can differentiate persons into 5.2 statistically distinct strata. Most ABC items were free of DIF. For example, 'walk outside on icy sidewalks' was easier for patients who was underweight. Results supported unidimensionality of the ABC Scale, with the first factor explained 77% of the total variance. The estimated MDC was 15 points. We provided an example of functional staging application. Conclusion Results supported sound psychometric properties and clinical usage of the ABC Scale for older adults seeking outpatient rehabilitation therapy. Level of Evidence 2c. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther, Epub 30 Mar 2018. doi:10.2519/jospt.2018.8023.

  5. Parental self-confidence, parenting styles, and corporal punishment in families of ADHD children in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh, Hamid; Applequist, Kimberly F; Coolidge, Frederick L

    2007-05-01

    This study examines the relationship between parental self-confidence, warmth, and involvement, and corporal punishment in families of children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The diagnosis of ADHD was established through clinical interviews with the parents, children, and teachers, according the criteria in DSM-IV-TR. This diagnosis was also established by having the parents complete the Conners' Parent Rating Scale, and the teachers complete the Conners' Teacher Rating Scale. Two groups of Iranian parents, one group with children who have ADHD (N=130) and a control group (N=120), completed questionnaires measuring parental self-confidence and parenting styles. Parents of children with ADHD were found to have lower self-confidence and less warmth and involvement with their children, and used corporal punishment significantly more than the parents of control children. The study provides strong evidence that children with ADHD are at considerable risk of abuse by their parents. Rather than focusing only on the child's ADHD, treatment may also need to address the parents' functioning.

  6. CONFIDENCE MASTERY AS THE FUNDAMENTAL TASK IN LEARNING A FOREIGN LANGUAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KOTEKOVÁ, Daniela

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of language learning is not only to achieve an academic success carried out by a fluent speaking; mastering the grammar and vocabulary but it should also focus on the psychological comfort and the intrinsic readiness of the students to participate in their education - to receive and perform. The learners’ self-esteem plays the fundamental role in any language classroom but gaining it is the task on its own and can be quite a challenge for the teachers. How students feel is closely related to their ability to learn. Teachers’ task is thus not only to provide knowledge and information but first of all they should immerse themselves into the student’s mind and discover the best way to awake learner’s will to communicate. This paper focuses on two kinds of aspects participating on the emotional state of the learner, academic and psychological. The students of two different levels of English have answered the questionnaire, assessing their attitude, anxiety and motivation towards learning English. Each opinion has been evaluated and put into relationship with the ability to relax, understand, learn and enjoy at the same time. Their analyses have become the base of several teaching techniques that would build and encourage the students’ confidence as the main condition to start any cognitive process. If confidence is the cause or the outcome of mastering a foreign language was the question asked and answered in this work. Confidence mastery has thus played the fundamental role in the present survey.

  7. Influence of a School-Based Cooking Course on Students' Food Preferences, Cooking Skills, and Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahr, Rola; Sibeko, Lindiwe

    2017-03-01

    A quasi-experimental study was conducted to evaluate the influence of Project CHEF, a hands-on cooking and tasting program offered in Vancouver public schools, on students' food preferences, cooking skills, and confidence. Grade 4 and 5 students in an intervention group (n = 68) and a comparison group (n = 32) completed a survey at baseline and 2 to 3 weeks later. Students who participated in Project CHEF reported an increased familiarity and preference for the foods introduced through the program. This was statistically significant (P ≤ 0.05) for broccoli, swiss chard, carrots, and quinoa. A higher percentage of students exposed to Project CHEF reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in: cutting vegetables and fruit (97% vs 81%), measuring ingredients (67% vs 44%), using a knife (94% vs 82%), and making a balanced meal on their own (69% vs 34%). They also reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in confidence making the recipes introduced in the program: fruit salad (85% vs 81%), minestrone soup (25% vs 10%), and vegetable tofu stir fry (39% vs 26%). Involving students in hands-on cooking and tasting programs can increase their preferences for unpopular or unfamiliar foods and provide them with the skills and cooking confidence they need to prepare balanced meals.

  8. Public confidence in the management of radioactive waste: the Canadian context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Public confidence is significantly affected by social considerations, such as public participation in decision-making processes, transparency of activities, access to information, effective and appropriate mitigation measures, development opportunities and social justice issues. In order to increase public confidence, there is a need to fully understand social concerns and to design an effective strategy on how to address them. This is particularly so in relation to radioactive waste management decision making. A workshop held in Ottawa in October 2002 brought together a wide range of Canadian stakeholders to present their views and to debate related issues with delegates from radioactive waste management programmes in 14 countries. This third interactive workshop of the NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence focused on key areas such as the social concerns at play in radioactive waste management, how these concerns can be addressed, and development opportunities for local communities. These proceedings provide a summary of the workshop, the full texts of the stakeholder presentations and detailed reports of the workshop discussions. (author)

  9. Confidence limits for contribution plots in multivariate statistical process control using bootstrap estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babamoradi, Hamid; van den Berg, Frans; Rinnan, Åsmund

    2016-02-18

    In Multivariate Statistical Process Control, when a fault is expected or detected in the process, contribution plots are essential for operators and optimization engineers in identifying those process variables that were affected by or might be the cause of the fault. The traditional way of interpreting a contribution plot is to examine the largest contributing process variables as the most probable faulty ones. This might result in false readings purely due to the differences in natural variation, measurement uncertainties, etc. It is more reasonable to compare variable contributions for new process runs with historical results achieved under Normal Operating Conditions, where confidence limits for contribution plots estimated from training data are used to judge new production runs. Asymptotic methods cannot provide confidence limits for contribution plots, leaving re-sampling methods as the only option. We suggest bootstrap re-sampling to build confidence limits for all contribution plots in online PCA-based MSPC. The new strategy to estimate CLs is compared to the previously reported CLs for contribution plots. An industrial batch process dataset was used to illustrate the concepts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Bootstrap resampling: a powerful method of assessing confidence intervals for doses from experimental data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwi, G.; Millard, R.K.; Palmer, A.M.; Preece, A.W.; Saunders, M.

    1999-01-01

    Bootstrap resampling provides a versatile and reliable statistical method for estimating the accuracy of quantities which are calculated from experimental data. It is an empirically based method, in which large numbers of simulated datasets are generated by computer from existing measurements, so that approximate confidence intervals of the derived quantities may be obtained by direct numerical evaluation. A simple introduction to the method is given via a detailed example of estimating 95% confidence intervals for cumulated activity in the thyroid following injection of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate using activity-time data from 23 subjects. The application of the approach to estimating confidence limits for the self-dose to the kidney following injection of 99m Tc-DTPA organ imaging agent based on uptake data from 19 subjects is also illustrated. Results are then given for estimates of doses to the foetus following administration of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate for clinical reasons during pregnancy, averaged over 25 subjects. The bootstrap method is well suited for applications in radiation dosimetry including uncertainty, reliability and sensitivity analysis of dose coefficients in biokinetic models, but it can also be applied in a wide range of other biomedical situations. (author)

  11. Confidence, knowledge, and skills at the beginning of residency. A survey of pathology residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Cindy M; Nolan, Norris J

    2015-01-01

    To document the pathology learning experiences of pathology residents prior to residency and to determine how confident they were in their knowledge and technical skills. An online survey was distributed to all pathology residency program directors in the United States, who were requested to forward the survey link to their residents. Data were obtained on pathology electives, grossing experience, and frozen section experience. Likert scale questions assessed confidence level in knowledge and skills. In total, 201 pathology residents responded (8% of residents in the United States). Prior to starting residency, most respondents had exposure to anatomic pathology through elective rotations. Few respondents had work-related experience. Most did not feel confident in their pathology-related knowledge or skills, and many did not understand what pathology resident duties entail. Respondents gained exposure to pathology primarily through elective rotations, and most felt the elective experience prepared them for pathology residency. However, elective time may be enhanced by providing opportunities for students to increase hands-on experience and understanding of resident duties. Copyright© by the American Society for Clinical Pathology.

  12. miRBase: annotating high confidence microRNAs using deep sequencing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozomara, Ana; Griffiths-Jones, Sam

    2014-01-01

    We describe an update of the miRBase database (http://www.mirbase.org/), the primary microRNA sequence repository. The latest miRBase release (v20, June 2013) contains 24 521 microRNA loci from 206 species, processed to produce 30 424 mature microRNA products. The rate of deposition of novel microRNAs and the number of researchers involved in their discovery continue to increase, driven largely by small RNA deep sequencing experiments. In the face of these increases, and a range of microRNA annotation methods and criteria, maintaining the quality of the microRNA sequence data set is a significant challenge. Here, we describe recent developments of the miRBase database to address this issue. In particular, we describe the collation and use of deep sequencing data sets to assign levels of confidence to miRBase entries. We now provide a high confidence subset of miRBase entries, based on the pattern of mapped reads. The high confidence microRNA data set is available alongside the complete microRNA collection at http://www.mirbase.org/. We also describe embedding microRNA-specific Wikipedia pages on the miRBase website to encourage the microRNA community to contribute and share textual and functional information.

  13. Feedback for reinforcement learning based brain-machine interfaces using confidence metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prins, Noeline W.; Sanchez, Justin C.; Prasad, Abhishek

    2017-06-01

    Objective. For brain-machine interfaces (BMI) to be used in activities of daily living by paralyzed individuals, the BMI should be as autonomous as possible. One of the challenges is how the feedback is extracted and utilized in the BMI. Our long-term goal is to create autonomous BMIs that can utilize an evaluative feedback from the brain to update the decoding algorithm and use it intelligently in order to adapt the decoder. In this study, we show how to extract the necessary evaluative feedback from a biologically realistic (synthetic) source, use both the quantity and the quality of the feedback, and how that feedback information can be incorporated into a reinforcement learning (RL) controller architecture to maximize its performance. Approach. Motivated by the perception-action-reward cycle (PARC) in the brain which links reward for cognitive decision making and goal-directed behavior, we used a reward-based RL architecture named Actor-Critic RL as the model. Instead of using an error signal towards building an autonomous BMI, we envision to use a reward signal from the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) which plays a key role in the linking of reward to motor behaviors. To deal with the complexity and non-stationarity of biological reward signals, we used a confidence metric which was used to indicate the degree of feedback accuracy. This confidence was added to the Actor’s weight update equation in the RL controller architecture. If the confidence was high (>0.2), the BMI decoder used this feedback to update its parameters. However, when the confidence was low, the BMI decoder ignored the feedback and did not update its parameters. The range between high confidence and low confidence was termed as the ‘ambiguous’ region. When the feedback was within this region, the BMI decoder updated its weight at a lower rate than when fully confident, which was decided by the confidence. We used two biologically realistic models to generate synthetic data for MI (Izhikevich

  14. [Increased self-confidence and decreased sexual discomfort after subpectoral mammaplasty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruck, J C; Kleinschmidt, A; Ottomann, C

    2011-04-01

    The study objectively discusses the causal relationship between submuscular breast augmentation mammaplasty and improved aspects of quality of life. The goal was to assess a possible increase in certain aspects after undergoing cosmetic breast enlargement surgery under consideration of 4 different aspects. Between 2005 and 2006, a total of 65 women were given a standardised patient questionnaire (body image assessment questionnaire) preoperatively as well as 6 months postoperatively after undergoing cosmetic submuscular augmentation mammaplasty: 58 of these questionnaires could be evaluated successfully. All of the patients had undergone augmentation mammaplasty for the first time. The following criteria were assessed and evaluated using a point value system (0-100 points): attractiveness/self-confidence, insecurity/anxiety, emphasis placed on physical appearance, and sexual discomfort. With regard to the questions dealing with attractiveness/self-confidence, a highly significant improvement in the patient's self-assessment of said criteria after undergoing cosmetic submuscular augmentation mammaplasty as compared to their own preoperative assessment was apparent. In addition, a significantly improved level of sexual satisfaction after the medical procedure was also demonstrated. In the same fashion, the answers to the series of questions dealing with emphasis placed on physical appearance also exhibited a positive change. The only topic that exhibited next to no change was the series of questions dealing with insecurity/anxiety. Cosmetic augmentation mammaplasty is an available therapy that can increase a patient's own self-assessment of attractiveness and self-confidence in a significant way. In addition, this operation leads to a significant increase in sexual satisfaction, and because of this and the aforementioned change of emphasis placed on physical appearance, an overall improvement in certain aspects of the quality of life can be achieved. © Georg Thieme

  15. Procedural confidence in hospital based practitioners: implications for the training and practice of doctors at all grades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsagkaraki Petroula A

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Medical doctors routinely undertake a number of practical procedures and these should be performed competently. The UK Postgraduate Medical Education and Training Board (PMETB curriculum lists the procedures trainees should be competent in. We aimed to describe medical practitioner's confidence in their procedural skills, and to define which practical procedures are important in current medical practice. Methods A cross sectional observational study was performed measuring procedural confidence in 181 hospital practitioners at all grades from 2 centres in East Anglia, England. Results Both trainees and consultants provide significant service provision. SpR level doctors perform the widest range and the highest median number of procedures per year. Most consultants perform few if any procedures, however some perform a narrow range at high volume. Cumulative confidence for the procedures tested peaks in the SpR grade. Five key procedures (central line insertion, lumbar puncture, pleural aspiration, ascitic aspiration, and intercostal drain insertion are the most commonly performed, are seen as important generic skills, and correspond to the total number of procedures for which confidence can be maintained. Key determinants of confidence are gender, number of procedures performed in the previous year and total number of procedures performed. Conclusion The highest volume of service requirement is for six procedures. The procedural confidence is dependent upon gender, number of procedures performed in the previous year and total number of procedures performed. This has implications for those designing the training curriculum and with regards the move to shorten the duration of training.

  16. The Effect of a Surgical Skills Course on Confidence Levels of Rural General Practitioners: An Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Pippa; Ward, Olga; Hamdorf, Jeffrey

    2016-10-01

    Objective  To investigate the effect of a short surgical skills course on general practitioners' confidence levels to perform procedural skills. Design  Prospective observational study. Setting  The Clinical Evaluation and Training Centre, a practical skills-based educational facility, at The University of Western Australia. Participants  Medical practitioners who participated in these courses. Nurses, physiotherapists, and medical students were excluded. The response rate was 61% with 61 participants providing 788 responses for pre- and postcourse confidence levels regarding various surgical skills. Intervention  One- to two-day surgical skills courses consisting of presentations, demonstrations, and practical stations, facilitated by specialists. Main Outcome Measures  A two-page precourse and postcourse questionnaire was administered to medical practitioners on the day. Participants rated their confidence levels to perform skills addressed during the course on a 4-point Likert scale. Results  Of the 788 responses regarding confidence levels, 621 were rated as improved postcourse, 163 were rated as no change, and 4 were rated as lower postcourse. Seven of the courses showed a 25% median increase in confidence levels, and one course demonstrated a 50% median increase. All courses showed statistically significant results ( p  skills course resulted in a statistically significant improvement in the confidence levels of rural general practitioners to perform these skills.

  17. Evaluating best educational practices, student satisfaction, and self-confidence in simulation: A descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapko, Karen A; Ferranto, Mary Lou Gemma; Blasiman, Rachael; Shelestak, Debra

    2018-01-01

    The National League for Nursing (NLN) has endorsed simulation as a necessary teaching approach to prepare students for the demanding role of professional nursing. Questions arise about the suitability of simulation experiences to educate students. Empirical support for the effect of simulation on patient outcomes is sparse. Most studies on simulation report only anecdotal results rather than data obtained using evaluative tools. The aim of this study was to examine student perception of best educational practices in simulation and to evaluate their satisfaction and self-confidence in simulation. This study was a descriptive study designed to explore students' perceptions of the simulation experience over a two-year period. Using the Jeffries framework, a Simulation Day was designed consisting of serial patient simulations using high and medium fidelity simulators and live patient actors. The setting for the study was a regional campus of a large Midwestern Research 2 university. The convenience sample consisted of 199 participants and included sophomore, junior, and senior nursing students enrolled in the baccalaureate nursing program. The Simulation Days consisted of serial patient simulations using high and medium fidelity simulators and live patient actors. Participants rotated through four scenarios that corresponded to their level in the nursing program. Data was collected in two consecutive years. Participants completed both the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Student Version) and the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning Scale. Results provide strong support for using serial simulation as a learning tool. Students were satisfied with the experience, felt confident in their performance, and felt the simulations were based on sound educational practices and were important for learning. Serial simulations and having students experience simulations more than once in consecutive years is a valuable method of clinical instruction. When

  18. General Practitioner's Attitudes and Confidence in Managing Patients with Dementia in Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramaniam, Mythily; Ong, Hui Lin; Abdin, Edimansyah; Chua, Boon Yiang; Shafie, Saleha; Siva Kumar, Fiona Devi; Foo, Sophia; Ng, Li Ling; Lum, Alvin; Vaingankar, Janhavi A; Chong, Siow Ann

    2018-03-01

    The number of people living with dementia is increasing globally as a result of an ageing population. General practitioners (GPs), as the front-line care providers in communities, are important stakeholders in the system of care for people with dementia. This commentary describes a study conducted to understand GPs' attitudes and self-perceived competencies when dealing with patients with dementia and their caregivers in Singapore. A set of study information sheet and survey questionnaires were mailed to selected GP clinics in Singapore. The survey, comprising the "GP Attitudes and Competencies Towards Dementia" questionnaire, was administered. A total of 400 GPs returned the survey, giving the study a response rate of 52.3%. About 74% of the GPs (n=296) were seeing dementia patients in their clinics. Almost all the GPs strongly agreed that early recognition of dementia served the welfare of the patients (n=385; 96%) and their relatives (n=387; 97%). About half (51.5%) of the respondents strongly agreed or agreed that they felt confident carrying out an early diagnosis of dementia. Factor analysis of questionnaire revealed 4 factors representing "benefits of early diagnosis and treatment of patients with dementia", "confidence in dealing with patients and caregiver of dementia", "negative perceptions towards dementia care" and "training needs". GPs in Singapore held a generally positive attitude towards the need for early dementia diagnosis but were not equally confident or comfortable about making the diagnosis themselves and communicating with and managing patients with dementia in the primary care setting. Dementia education and training should therefore be a critical step in equipping GPs for dementia care in Singapore. Shared care teams could further help build up GPs' knowledge, confidence and comfort in managing patients with dementia.

  19. Self-confidence, overconfidence and prenatal testosterone exposure : Evidence from the lab

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalton, Patricio S.; Ghosal, Sayantan

    2018-01-01

    This paper examines whether foetal testosterone exposure predicts the extent of confidence and over-confidence in own absolute ability in adulthood. To study this question, we elicited incentive-compatible measures of confidence and over-confidence in the lab and correlate them with measures of

  20. Educating Providers in Return-to-Play Suggested Guidelines Postconcussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bires, Angela Macci; Leonard, Amanda L; Thurber, Brandon

    As the awareness of concussions increases, it is imperative to be able to evaluate, diagnose, and treat concussed individuals properly to prevent further complications or death. The primary purpose of this study was to compare a provider's current awareness and comfort level as it relates to the return-to-play guidelines for concussions. A secondary aim was to evaluate current protocols that are in use and determine whether they coincide with the suggested guidelines. An educational intervention was implemented to assess the knowledge and confidence of health care providers. The study design was a quantitative, convenient sample, pretest/posttest questionnaire. The questionnaire was administered to participants who were nurse practitioners prior to an educational PowerPoint presentation. At 8 weeks, the posttest was administered. Approximately 19% of individuals were not aware of a graded return-to-play protocols. The findings suggest that the educational intervention increased their confidence levels in making a diagnosis of a concussion, in assessing danger signs, and in understanding when to refer to a specialist. Additional supporting evidence from this study indicates that the educational intervention allowed the participants to achieve a greater comfort level in finding appropriate resources for them and their patients.

  1. IAEA to implement Safeguards Additional Protocols in the EU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Full text: IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei welcomed the entry into force today of the Additional Protocols for 15 States of the European Union - France, the United Kingdom and the 13 non-nuclear weapon States of the EU - and the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM). The Protocols, which provide the Agency with better tools to verify compliance with nuclear non-proliferation commitments, entered into force when the European Commission informed the Agency that EURATOM's own requirements for entry into force had been met. The 15 States had provided similar notifications over the past years since signing the Protocols in 1998. The simultaneous entry into force of Additional Protocols for the 15 EU States is 'a very positive development and a milestone in our efforts to strengthen the verification regime', said Dr. ElBaradei. 'In my view, the Additional Protocol should become the standard for verification under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).' He added that the Agency had been preparing for the entry into force of the EU protocols and was confident that, in co-operation with the 15 States and EURATOM, it would be able to ensure effective and efficient implementation in the EU States. The Model Additional Protocol was developed following the discovery of Iraq's clandestine nuclear weapons programme to ensure that the IAEA is given the information and access it needs for timely discovery of any similar activities in States that have pledged not to use nuclear material and activities for weapons purposes. In the past year, Additional Protocols entered into force for 22 countries, and the Agency will now implement Additional Protocols in 58 States, which includes the 15 EU States. The 10 countries joining the EU on 1 May 2004 - seven of which already have brought into force Additional Protocols to their respective safeguards agreements - are expected to gradually accede to the Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol covering

  2. On the form of ROCs constructed from confidence ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malmberg, Kenneth J

    2002-03-01

    A classical question for memory researchers is whether memories vary in an all-or-nothing, discrete manner (e.g., stored vs. not stored, recalled vs. not recalled), or whether they vary along a continuous dimension (e.g., strength, similarity, or familiarity). For yes-no classification tasks, continuous- and discrete-state models predict nonlinear and linear receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), respectively (D. M. Green & J. A. Swets, 1966; N. A. Macmillan & C. D. Creelman, 1991). Recently, several authors have assumed that these predictions are generalizable to confidence ratings tasks (J. Qin, C. L. Raye, M. K. Johnson, & K. J. Mitchell, 2001; S. D. Slotnick, S. A. Klein, C. S. Dodson, & A. P. Shimamura, 2000, and A. P. Yonelinas, 1999). This assumption is shown to be unwarranted by showing that discrete-state ratings models predict both linear and nonlinear ROCs. The critical factor determining the form of the discrete-state ROC is the response strategy adopted by the classifier.

  3. Global upstream investment faces a crisis of confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, Richard

    2001-01-01

    Offshore business appears to be in a catch-22 situation between on the one hand the interests of global economic welfare and on the other the stock market demands. The oil and gas industries need to grow the return on capital and to compete effectively with other (better performing) industries. But, the world demands more oil and very soon, and these are the issues and consequences discussed. The US government is confident that non-Opec oil supply can increase by 12.8 Mbd between now and 2020 and this is significantly more than projected in the last forecast. The article is presented under the headings of (i) value creation paradigm; (ii) spelling it out for 2001 and (iii) big projects, long lead times. Diagrams show (a) world oil demand 1971-2020; (b) fractional change in Brent prices 1986-2001 and (c) wells drilled and annual production in Prudhoe bay 1974-2010. Figures for the International Energy Agency forecast for both Opec and non-Opec countries are mentioned

  4. Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Castro

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Asset correlations are of critical importance in quantifying portfolio credit risk and economic capitalin financial institutions. Estimation of asset correlation with rating transition data has focusedon the point estimation of the correlation without giving any consideration to the uncertaintyaround these point estimates. In this article we use Bayesian methods to estimate a dynamicfactor model for default risk using rating data (McNeil et al., 2005; McNeil and Wendin, 2007.Bayesian methods allow us to formally incorporate human judgement in the estimation of assetcorrelation, through the prior distribution and fully characterize a confidence set for the correlations.Results indicate: i a two factor model rather than the one factor model, as proposed bythe Basel II framework, better represents the historical default data. ii importance of unobservedfactors in this type of models is reinforced and point out that the levels of the implied asset correlationscritically depend on the latent state variable used to capture the dynamics of default,as well as other assumptions on the statistical model. iii the posterior distributions of the assetcorrelations show that the Basel recommended bounds, for this parameter, undermine the levelof systemic risk.

  5. Confidence building in and through fission and fusion activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toyojiro Fuketa

    1989-01-01

    The peaceful uses of atomic energy are most suitable for achieving worldwide confidence building for the following reasons. (1) In spite of the need for peaceful uses of nuclear energy, the world is facing difficulties in the public perception and acceptance of nuclear works and facilities. (2) The above difficulties are due to many factors, such as the two sides of nuclear energy peaceful and military, the possibility of a large-scale reactor accident, the lack of understanding about radiation and radioactivity, and finally, emotion and egoism. Some of these factors are unique to nuclear-energy, but in other cases of public reactions, there are many facets similar to the above factors. (3) The public concern about safety is at its highest, broadest and severest point ever, coincident with the highest life expectancy in history. Over-precaution and over-protection about certain things may sometimes spoil one's health. Nuclear energy is most definitely suffering from such a trend. As a result, a severe nuclear accident in any country results in severe damage worldwide no manner in what form the real physical effects reach other countries. (4) The huge science and technology efforts required for fission and fusion activities cannot be fully achieved by one country. Explanations of some of the above factors are given. 2 refs

  6. Additive lattice kirigami.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castle, Toen; Sussman, Daniel M; Tanis, Michael; Kamien, Randall D

    2016-09-01

    Kirigami uses bending, folding, cutting, and pasting to create complex three-dimensional (3D) structures from a flat sheet. In the case of lattice kirigami, this cutting and rejoining introduces defects into an underlying 2D lattice in the form of points of nonzero Gaussian curvature. A set of simple rules was previously used to generate a wide variety of stepped structures; we now pare back these rules to their minimum. This allows us to describe a set of techniques that unify a wide variety of cut-and-paste actions under the rubric of lattice kirigami, including adding new material and rejoining material across arbitrary cuts in the sheet. We also explore the use of more complex lattices and the different structures that consequently arise. Regardless of the choice of lattice, creating complex structures may require multiple overlapping kirigami cuts, where subsequent cuts are not performed on a locally flat lattice. Our additive kirigami method describes such cuts, providing a simple methodology and a set of techniques to build a huge variety of complex 3D shapes.

  7. Additive Manufactured Superconducting Cavities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Eric; Rosen, Yaniv; Woolleet, Nathan; Materise, Nicholas; Voisin, Thomas; Wang, Morris; Mireles, Jorge; Carosi, Gianpaolo; Dubois, Jonathan

    Superconducting radio frequency cavities provide an ultra-low dissipative environment, which has enabled fundamental investigations in quantum mechanics, materials properties, and the search for new particles in and beyond the standard model. However, resonator designs are constrained by limitations in conventional machining techniques. For example, current through a seam is a limiting factor in performance for many waveguide cavities. Development of highly reproducible methods for metallic parts through additive manufacturing, referred to colloquially as 3D printing\\x9D, opens the possibility for novel cavity designs which cannot be implemented through conventional methods. We present preliminary investigations of superconducting cavities made through a selective laser melting process, which compacts a granular powder via a high-power laser according to a digitally defined geometry. Initial work suggests that assuming a loss model and numerically optimizing a geometry to minimize dissipation results in modest improvements in device performance. Furthermore, a subset of titanium alloys, particularly, a titanium, aluminum, vanadium alloy (Ti - 6Al - 4V) exhibits properties indicative of a high kinetic inductance material. This work is supported by LDRD 16-SI-004.

  8. Initiating communication about parental mental illness in families: an issue of confidence and security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pihkala, Heljä; Sandlund, Mikael; Cederström, Anita

    2012-05-01

    Beardslee's family intervention (FI) is a family-based intervention to prevent psychiatric problems for children of mentally ill parents. The parents' experiences are of importance in family-based interventions. Twenty five parents were interviewed about their experiences of FI. Data were analysed by qualitative methods. Confidence and security in the professionals and in FI as a method were prerequisites for initiating communication about the parents' mental illness with the children. FI provides a solid base for an alliance with the parents and might be a practicable method when parenthood and children are discussed with psychiatric patients.

  9. The effect of interprofessional education on interprofessional performance and diabetes care knowledge of health care teams at the level one of health service providing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikoo Yamani

    2014-01-01

    Conclusion: It seems that inter-professional education can improve the quality of health care to some extent through influencing knowledge and collaborative performance of health care teams. It also can make the health-related messages provided to the covered population more consistent in addition to enhancing self-confidence of the personnel.

  10. [Food additives and healthiness].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinonen, Marina

    2014-01-01

    Additives are used for improving food structure or preventing its spoilage, for example. Many substances used as additives are also naturally present in food. The safety of additives is evaluated according to commonly agreed principles. If high concentrations of an additive cause adverse health effects for humans, a limit of acceptable daily intake (ADI) is set for it. An additive is a risk only when ADI is exceeded. The healthiness of food is measured on the basis of nutrient density and scientifically proven effects.

  11. Medical-surgical nurses' perceived self-confidence and leadership abilities as first responders in acute patient deterioration events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Patricia L; Spiva, LeeAnna; Baio, Pamela; Huff, Barbara; Whitfield, Denice; Law, Tammy; Wells, Tiffany; Mendoza, Inocenica G

    2014-10-01

    To explore and understand medical-surgical nurses' perceived self-confidence and leadership abilities as first responders in recognising and responding to clinical deterioration prior to the arrival of an emergency response team. Patients are admitted to hospitals with multiple, complex health issues who are more likely to experience clinical deterioration. The majority of clinical deterioration events occur on medical-surgical units, and medical-surgical nurses are frequently the first healthcare professionals to identify signs and symptoms of clinical deterioration and initiate life-saving interventions. A prospective, cross-sectional, descriptive quantitative design using a survey method was used. Nurses were recruited from an integrated healthcare system located in the south-east United States. Nurses completed a demographic, a self-confidence and a leadership ability questionnaire. One hundred and forty-eight nurses participated in the study. Nurses felt moderately self-confident in recognising, assessing and intervening during clinical deterioration events. In addition, nurses felt moderately comfortable performing leadership skills prior to the arrival of an emergency response team. A significant, positive relationship was found between perceived self-confidence and leadership abilities. Age and certification status were significant predictors of nurses' leadership ability. Although nurses felt moderately self-confident and comfortable with executing leadership abilities, improvement is needed to ensure nurses are competent in recognising patients' deterioration cues and making sound decisions in taking appropriate, timely actions to rescue patients. Further strategies need to be developed to increase nurses' self-confidence and execution of leadership abilities in handling deterioration events for positive patient outcomes. Educational provisions should focus on various clinical deterioration events to build nurses' self-confidence and leadership abilities

  12. Therapy Provider Phase Information

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Therapy Provider Phase Information dataset is a tool for providers to search by their National Provider Identifier (NPI) number to determine their phase for...

  13. Resident physicians' attitudes and confidence in communicating with patients: a pilot study at a Japanese university hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Hirono; Eto, Masato; Kitamura, Kiyoshi; Kiuchi, Takahiro

    2014-09-01

    This study aimed to explore the relationships among physicians' confidence in conducting medical interviews, their attitudes toward the patient-physician relationship, and undergraduate training in communication skills among resident physicians in Japan. Participants were 63 first-year resident physicians at a university hospital in Tokyo. The Physician Confidence in the Medical Interview scale (PCMI) was constructed based on the framework of the Calgary-Cambridge Guide. Additionally, participants' attitudes toward the patient-physician relationship (Patient-Practitioner Orientation Scale; PPOS), undergraduate experience of communication skills training, and demographic characteristics were assessed through a self-reported questionnaire. The internal consistency of the PCMI and PPOS scales were adequate. As expected from the undergraduate curriculum for medical interviews in Japan, residents had relatively higher confidence in their communication skills with respect to gathering information and building the relationship, whereas less confident about sharing information and planning treatment. The PCMI was associated with a more patient-centered attitude as measured by the PPOS. These scales could be useful tools to measure physicians' confidence and attitudes in communicating with patients and to explore their changes through medical education. Residency programs should consider including systematic training and assessment in communication skills related to sharing information and planning treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Additives in yoghurt production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milna Tudor

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available In yoghurt production, mainly because of sensory characteristics, different types of additives are used. Each group, and also each substance from the same group has different characteristics and properties. For that reason, for improvement of yoghurt sensory characteristics apart from addition selection, the quantity of the additive is very important. The same substance added in optimal amount improves yoghurt sensory attributes, but too small or too big addition can reduce yoghurt sensory attributes. In this paper, characteristics and properties of mostly used additives in yoghurt production are described; skimmed milk powder, whey powder, concentrated whey powder, sugars and artificial sweeteners, fruits, stabilizers, casein powder, inulin and vitamins. Also the impact of each additive on sensory and physical properties of yoghurt, syneresis and viscosity, are described, depending on used amount added in yoghurt production.

  15. The Effect of POGIL on Academic Performance and Academic Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Gale, S.; Boisselle, L. N.

    2015-01-01

    POGIL (Process Oriented Guided Inquiry Learning) is a collaborative learning technique that employs guided inquiry within a cyclic system of exploration, concept invention, and application. This action research explores students' academic performance on a unit of organic chemistry work taught using POGIL, in addition to the effect of POGIL on…

  16. PFP: Automated prediction of gene ontology functional annotations with confidence scores using protein sequence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Troy; Chitale, Meghana; Luban, Stanislav; Kihara, Daisuke

    2009-02-15

    Protein function prediction is a central problem in bioinformatics, increasing in importance recently due to the rapid accumulation of biological data awaiting interpretation. Sequence data represents the bulk of this new stock and is the obvious target for consideration as input, as newly sequenced organisms often lack any other type of biological characterization. We have previously introduced PFP (Protein Function Prediction) as our sequence-based predictor of Gene Ontology (GO) functional terms. PFP interprets the results of a PSI-BLAST search by extracting and scoring individual functional attributes, searching a wide range of E-value sequence matches, and utilizing conventional data mining techniques to fill in missing information. We have shown it to be effective in predicting both specific and low-resolution functional attributes when sufficient data is unavailable. Here we describe (1) significant improvements to the PFP infrastructure, including the addition of prediction significance and confidence scores, (2) a thorough benchmark of performance and comparisons to other related prediction methods, and (3) applications of PFP predictions to genome-scale data. We applied PFP predictions to uncharacterized protein sequences from 15 organisms. Among these sequences, 60-90% could be annotated with a GO molecular function term at high confidence (>or=80%). We also applied our predictions to the protein-protein interaction network of the Malaria plasmodium (Plasmodium falciparum). High confidence GO biological process predictions (>or=90%) from PFP increased the number of fully enriched interactions in this dataset from 23% of interactions to 94%. Our benchmark comparison shows significant performance improvement of PFP relative to GOtcha, InterProScan, and PSI-BLAST predictions. This is consistent with the performance of PFP as the overall best predictor in both the AFP-SIG '05 and CASP7 function (FN) assessments. PFP is available as a web service at http

  17. Speech-Language Pathologists' Knowledge of Genetics: Perceived Confidence, Attitudes, Knowledge Acquisition and Practice-Based Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramontana, G. Michael; Blood, Ingrid M.; Blood, Gordon W.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine (a) the general knowledge bases demonstrated by school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) in the area of genetics, (b) the confidence levels of SLPs in providing services to children and their families with genetic disorders/syndromes, (c) the attitudes of SLPs regarding genetics and communication…

  18. Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth: retention of knowledge, skills, and confidence nine months after obstetric simulation-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelissen, E.J.T.; Ersdal, H.; Mduma, E.; Evjen-Olsen, B.; Broerse, J.E.W.; van Roosmalen, J.; Stekelenburg, J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: It is important to know the decay of knowledge, skills, and confidence over time to provide evidence-based guidance on timing of follow-up training. Studies addressing retention of simulation-based education reveal mixed results. The aim of this study was to measure the level of

  19. Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth : retention of knowledge, skills, and confidence nine months after obstetric simulation-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelissen, Ellen; Ersdal, Hege; Mduma, Estomih; Evjen-Olsen, Bjorg; Broerse, Jacqueline; van Roosmalen, Jos; Stekelenburg, Jelle

    2015-01-01

    Background: It is important to know the decay of knowledge, skills, and confidence over time to provide evidence-based guidance on timing of follow-up training. Studies addressing retention of simulation-based education reveal mixed results. The aim of this study was to measure the level of

  20. The effectiveness of learning portfolios in learning participation and learners' perceptions of skills and confidence in the mother of preterm infant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yi-Chuan; Chen, Li-Li; Chang, Yu-Shan; Li, Tsai-Chung; Chen, Ching-Ju; Huang, Li-Chi

    2018-03-22

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of preterm infant learning portfolios in enabling mothers to develop infant care knowledge and skills, as well as confidence in their abilities. This study used a quasi-experimental design. The sample consisted of 52 mothers with preterm infants recruited at a neonatal intermediate unit of a medical centre in central Taiwan. Among those, 26 participants in the control group received regular health education and 26 participants in the experimental group received learning portfolios and regular care. The Preterm Infant Care Learning Portfolio (PICLP) is a semi-structured learning portfolio which was provided by nurses. Intervention started with 15 min of instructions on how to use PICLP, including a list of learning task and methods of self-assessment. Follow-up sessions of 5-10 min were conducted after each learning task. The frequency of learning skills could be adjusted depending on participants' learning needs. Self-administered questionnaires regarding knowledge of and skills in preterm infant care and maternal confidence were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention; the questionnaires were conducted before the intervention, 1 day before discharge and 1 month after discharge. We also tracked the frequency with which participants attended instructional sessions before discharged. Mothers' preterm infant care knowledge and skills and confidence improved in both groups after the intervention. The experimental group showed greater improvement than the control group by post-test 2; there was no statistical difference between groups at 1 day before discharge and 1 month after discharge. However, participants in the experimental group came for instructional sessions on baby care for more frequently than the control group. The frequency of learning sessions attended was a predictor of improved scores of the skill assessment before discharge. Both programmes led to improvements in preterm