WorldWideScience

Sample records for projected future urban

  1. Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  2. Climate change adaptation accounting for huge uncertainties in future projections - the case of urban drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological design parameters, which are currently used in the guidelines for the design of urban drainage systems (Willems et al., 2013) have been revised, taking the Flanders region of Belgium as case study. The revision involved extrapolation of the design rainfall statistics, taking into account the current knowledge on future climate change trends till 2100. Uncertainties in these trend projections have been assessed after statistically analysing and downscaling by a quantile perturbation tool based on a broad ensemble set of climate model simulation results (44 regional + 69 global control-scenario climate model run combinations for different greenhouse gas scenarios). The impact results of the climate scenarios were investigated as changes to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Thereafter, the climate scenarios and related changes in rainfall statistics were transferred to changes in flood frequencies of sewer systems and overflow frequencies of storage facilities. This has been done based on conceptual urban drainage models. Also the change in storage capacity required to exceed a given overflow return period, has been calculated for a range of return periods and infiltration or throughflow rates. These results were used on the basis of the revision of the hydraulic design rules of urban drainage systems. One of the major challenges while formulating these policy guidelines was the consideration of the huge uncertainties in the future climate change projections and impact assessments; see also the difficulties and pitfalls reported by the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage - Working group on urban rainfall (Willems et al., 2012). We made use of the risk concept, and found it a very useful approach to deal with the high uncertainties. It involves an impact study of the different climate projections, or - for practical reasons - a reduced set of climate scenarios tailored for the specific type of impact considered (urban floods in our

  3. Chicago Clean Air, Clean Water Project: Environmental Monitoring for a Healthy, Sustainable Urban Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none, none; Tuchman, Nancy [Institute of Environmental Sustainability (IES), Chicago, IL (United States)

    2015-11-11

    The U.S. Department of Energy awarded Loyola University Chicago and the Institute of Environmental Sustainability (IES) $486,000.00 for the proposal entitled “Chicago clean air, clean water project: Environmental monitoring for a healthy, sustainable urban future.” The project supported the purchase of analytical instruments for the development of an environmental analytical laboratory. The analytical laboratory is designed to support the testing of field water and soil samples for nutrients, industrial pollutants, heavy metals, and agricultural toxins, with special emphasis on testing Chicago regional soils and water affected by coal-based industry. Since the award was made in 2010, the IES has been launched (fall 2013), and the IES acquired a new state-of-the-art research and education facility on Loyola University Chicago’s Lakeshore campus. Two labs were included in the research and education facility. The second floor lab is the Ecology Laboratory where lab experiments and analyses are conducted on soil, plant, and water samples. The third floor lab is the Environmental Toxicology Lab where lab experiments on environmental toxins are conducted, as well as analytical tests conducted on water, soil, and plants. On the south end of the Environmental Toxicology Lab is the analytical instrumentation collection purchased from the present DOE grant, which is overseen by a full time Analytical Chemist (hired January 2016), who maintains the instruments, conducts analyses on samples, and helps to train faculty and undergraduate and graduate student researchers.

  4. Future urban transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Carsten Jahn; Jacobsen, Lars; Möller, Michael

    2000-01-01

    The urban environment is usually associated with a variety of activities, which involve matching the demand for goods, commerce, services, rules and laws, culture and intellectual exchange. Proximity and congregation are essential factors when it comes to the economic efficiency of urban society....... However, the attractiveness of urban environments has caused cites to expand without control in many areas, causing congestion, and environmental and social problems. This session deals with the complexity of urban settings, including the impact of large infrastructure projects relating to safety, noise...

  5. Sustainable Urban Fringes - Connecting Urban and Rural : Final report of the SURF project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, de T.J.N.M. (Theo); Haccoû, H.A. (Huib); Leslie, A. (Allison); Lier, G. (Goos); Littlewood, S. (Stephan); Oldejans, R. (Rolf); Thomas, K. (Kevin); Vries, de B.J. (Bauke); Watt, E. (Emma); Wishardt, M. (Michelle)

    2012-01-01

    What happens at the urban edge and the SURF aspiration to influence it? Projects in the urban fringe Urban fringe governance Integrated policy guidelines and approaches towards urban fringe planning and management The future management of the urban fringe

  6. Investing in Urban Studies to Ensure Urban Archaeology’s Future: A Response to ‘The Challenges and Opportunities for Mega-infrastructure Projects and Archaeology’

    OpenAIRE

    Linn, Meredith B

    2013-01-01

    In reading J. J. Carver’s excellent suggestions for how to better enable archaeology and large urban infrastructure projects to progress to mutual benefit, I found myself in enthusiastic agreement with his point that ‘professional working relationships are the most important challenge for archaeology in mega projects’ and that we must convince project directors, engineers, and site teams that archaeology ‘can enhance the value of the project they are building’ (4). This is especially crucial ...

  7. The future is urban.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-05-01

    Urban centers are growing due to natural increase and the movement of people from rural areas. Urban areas are the traditional centers of trade, science, and culture, but growth over a threshold results in crime, congestion, and pollution. Sustainability is threatened in modern towns that are dependent on other sources for food, fuel, or water. Housing, water, food supplies, and sanitation, communication, and transportation services are threatened in rapidly growing cities. In 1990 45/100 people lived in towns or cities. Hyper-cities have grown in number to 20, of which 14 are in developing countries. 83% of world population increase is expected to occur in cities. In 48 countries with faster population growth cities had growth rates averaging about 6.1% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged 2.8%. In 49 countries with slower population growth, urban growth rates averaged only 3.6% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged about 1.8%. Squatter settlements are endemic to urban areas that are congested and without basic services, limited housing particularly for the poor, and few job opportunities. The number of street children in urban areas has risen. This child population is subjected to low wages, overwork, auto accidents, poor health, and lack of social services. Malnutrition is a more serious issue in urban areas. In the Philippines malnutrition is 3% nationally and 9% in Metro Manila. Rural land reform in the Philippines is no longer a viable solution. In Metro Manila squatters are expected to increase in number to 4 million people by the year 2000, which would be almost 50% of total population. The squatter areas are areas of neglect, decay, and poverty. Cities are viewed as development's "blind alleys."

  8. Urban transportation projects conceptualised:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pineda, Andres Felipe Valderrama

    is straightforward: transportation projects transform cities. The paradoxical reality thus is that a problem that has been traditionally conceptualized in technical terms (transportation engineering, transportation economics, planning theory, traffic engineering, urban planning, etc.), has tremendous consequences...... operation when discussing transportation projects in big cities. The tradition of Science and Technology Studies might have provided some clues. In the following paper we discuss the most prominent aspects of some theories in STS in order to understand and conceptualize the cases of Bogotá and Copenhagen...

  9. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  10. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  11. Urban Renewal as an Urban Hegemony Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gönül İÇLİ

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available There is an organic relationship between capitalism and urban space. Thisrelationship is a dynamic one which reproduces and renovates itself constantlyaccording to the conjuncture of each period and which evolves / changes inparallel with the necessities and rationalities of capital accumulation in historicalprocess. Therefore, neither reproduction of capitalist urban space with the regimeof capital accumulation nor the process of restructuring following a crisis in theregime of capital accumulation with spatial organization of capitalism can becompared independently. Today, in the concrete phase that capitalism hasreached, urban space has become one of the most important parts of direct capitalaccumulation under the hegemony of financial capital. In this context, urbantransformation projects and various strategies ofthe process becomes significantwith the instrumentalization of space by capital rationality. However, this processcarries the internal paradoxes of capitalism into the urban space at the same time,and cities, competing as candidates to be financial centres where the capital hasintensified and centralized, also transforms into spaces of violent socialpolarization. At this point, especially the reformation of squatter settlements has astrategic importance in the process of urban transformation and there are attemptsto attach the urban poor, who are the addressee of the process, under a widerurban hegemony project with the strategy of urban renovation.

  12. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  13. Are autonomous cities our urban future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Barbara

    2018-05-29

    Cities are rapidly expanding in size, wealth and power, with some now larger than nation states. Smart city solutions and strong global urban networks are developing to manage massive urban growth. However, cities exist within a wider system and it may take more than technological advances, innovation and city autonomy to develop a sustainable urban future.

  14. : Urban design, urban project, urban art, urban composition ... a question of vocabulary?

    OpenAIRE

    Pinson , Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Actes à paraître; International audience; The term "urbanism" of Pierre Clerget (1910) put the mess in the practice and the formations in France. Urban planning is thus, on the academic level, a coexistence of disciplinary approaches, which does not help to a multidisciplinary urban training. Thinking about "urban design", after beautifull city, urban composition, or alongside the urban project and other territorial approaches can help to see more clearly in town planning.; Le terme « urbanis...

  15. Summaries and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egelstaff, P.A.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper the author gives a brief summary of this meeting. He discusses the status at the current neutron sources and future sources. The current problems with targets, moderators, performance of storage rings and shields are briefly mentioned. Finally, he speculates on the prospects of neutron sources for the future and gives his version of the ultimate source

  16. The Future of Urban Ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elle, Morten

    1998-01-01

    This article is discusing the basic conditions for a positive development of urban ecology in Denmark. A number of battles has to be won.......This article is discusing the basic conditions for a positive development of urban ecology in Denmark. A number of battles has to be won....

  17. Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Fita, Lluís; Bormann, Kathryn J.

    2014-04-01

    This study examines the impact of future urban expansion on local near-surface temperature for Sydney (Australia) using a future climate scenario (A2). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) climates of the region at 2-km spatial resolution. The standard land use of the model was replaced with a more accurate dataset that covers the Sydney area. The future simulation incorporates the projected changes in the urban area of Sydney to account for the expected urban expansion. A comparison between areas with projected land use changes and their surroundings was conducted to evaluate how urbanization and global warming will act together and to ascertain their combined effect on the local climate. The analysis of the temperature changes revealed that future urbanization will strongly affect minimum temperature, whereas little impact was detected for maximum temperature. The minimum temperature changes will be noticeable throughout the year. However, during winter and spring these differences will be particularly large and the increases could be double the increase due to global warming alone at 2050. Results indicated that the changes were mostly due to increased heat capacity of urban structures and reduced evaporation in the city environment.

  18. Existing and Future Urban Knowledge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Hans Thor; Atkinson, Robert

    2013-01-01

    In recent years there has been a rising focus on urban issues at both European and national levels, the well being of cities and the quality of life of their citizens has taken on greater salience for economic and political reasons. This situation has developed not least because the vast majority...

  19. Urban phenological studies – Past, present, future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

    2015-01-01

    Phenology is believed to be a suitable bio-indicator to track climate change. Based on the strong statistical association between phenology and temperature phenological observations provide an inexpensive means for the temporal and spatial analysis of the urban heat island. However, other environmental factors might also weaken this relationship. In addition, the investigation of urban phenology allows an estimation of future phenology from current information since cities with their amplified temperatures may serve as a proxy for future conditions. Nevertheless, the design of spatial compared to long-term studies might be influenced by different factors which should be taken into consideration when interpreting results from a specific study. In general, plants located in urban areas tend to flush and bloom earlier than in the countryside. What are the consequences of these urban–rural differences? This review will document existing findings on urban phenology and will highlight areas in which further research is needed. - Highlights: • Urban phenology can be used for the estimation of the urban heat island effect. • Confounding factors weaken the phenology–temperature relationship. • Urban phenology is useful as a proxy for climate change impacts on phenology. • Differences in the study design hinder the generalisation of one specific method. • Urban–rural variations in phenology affect vegetation, meteorology, human health. - Studies on urban phenology can be used to detect urban heat islands and to assess climate change impacts but it still remains important to adequately link spatial and long-term data

  20. FutureGen Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabe, Jim; Elliott, Mike

    2010-09-30

    This report summarizes the comprehensive siting, permitting, engineering, design, and costing activities completed by the FutureGen Industrial Alliance, the Department of Energy, and associated supporting subcontractors to develop a first of a kind near zero emissions integrated gasification combined cycle power plant and carbon capture and storage project (IGCC-CCS). With the goal to design, build, and reliably operate the first IGCC-CCS facility, FutureGen would have been the lowest emitting pulverized coal power plant in the world, while providing a timely and relevant basis for coal combustion power plants deploying carbon capture in the future. The content of this report summarizes key findings and results of applicable project evaluations; modeling, design, and engineering assessments; cost estimate reports; and schedule and risk mitigation from initiation of the FutureGen project through final flow sheet analyses including capital and operating reports completed under DOE award DE-FE0000587. This project report necessarily builds upon previously completed siting, design, and development work executed under DOE award DE-FC26- 06NT4207 which included the siting process; environmental permitting, compliance, and mitigation under the National Environmental Policy Act; and development of conceptual and design basis documentation for the FutureGen plant. For completeness, the report includes as attachments the siting and design basis documents, as well as the source documentation for the following: • Site evaluation and selection process and environmental characterization • Underground Injection Control (UIC) Permit Application including well design and subsurface modeling • FutureGen IGCC-CCS Design Basis Document • Process evaluations and technology selection via Illinois Clean Coal Review Board Technical Report • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for slurry-fed gasifier configuration • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance

  1. Integrated sustainable urban infrastructures in building projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Susanne Balslev; Quitzau, Maj-Britt; Elle, Morten

    2007-01-01

    Current strategies in urban planning and development merely promote standardized building solutions, while failing to prioritize innovative approaches of integration between building projects and sustainable urban infrastructures. As a result of this, urban infrastructures – the urban veins...... – are outdated from a sustainability perspective. This paper looks into more holistic ways of approaching building projects and discuss whether this provide a basis for an increased integration of urban infrastructures within building projects. In our study, we especially emphasise how conventional ways...... of approaching building projects are influenced by lock-in of existing infrastructural systems and compare this with two examples of more holistic ways of approaching building projects, developed by two architecture firms. The paper points out that such holistic perspective in building projects provide...

  2. Disconnecting the autopilot in urban water projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Susanne Balslev; Jensen, Marina Bergen; Øhlenschlæger, Ny

    2011-01-01

    How can we motivate urban planners, water utilities and house owners to collaborate about sustainable urban water projects and to aim for solutions that go beyond the narrow perspective of individual stakeholder interests? A concept for framing a multidisciplinary learning process is developed...... the early stages of an urban water project. To realise new sustainable urban water designs a project team will need to engage and get acceptance from internal and external stakeholders, and this calls for communication and social skills rather than technical skills. The paper identifies potential...

  3. US Urban Forest Statistics, Values, and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J Nowak; Eric J. Greenfield

    2018-01-01

    U.S. urban land increased from 2.6% (57.9 million acres) in 2000 to 3.0% (68.0 million acres) in 2010. States with the greatest amount of urban growth were in the South/Southeast (TX, FL, NC, GA and SC). Between 2010 and 2060, urban land is projected to increase another 95.5 million acres to 163.1 million acres (8.6%) with 18 states projected to have an increase of...

  4. Build Artifacts in Sustainable Urban Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinheiro-Croisel, Rebecca; Hernes, Tor

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores innovation and social behaviourist theory in relation to sustainable urban projects in the highly institutionalized public sector (towns). Using empirical data from France, we examine the dynamics of a design process in which unexpected practices generated innovative urban...... into a movement of collective action, which presupposed the acquisition of a new identity. Ultimately, our objective is to combine social behaviourist theory and innovation theory and to facilitate innovative design in urban projects....

  5. A Method for Mapping Future Urbanization in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lahouari Bounoua

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Cities are poised to absorb additional people. Their sustainability, or ability to accommodate a population increase without depleting resources or compromising future growth, depends on whether they harness the efficiency gains from urban land management. Population is often projected as a bulk national number without details about spatial distribution. We use Landsat and population data in a methodology to project and map U.S. urbanization for the year 2020 and document its spatial pattern. This methodology is important to spatially disaggregate projected population and assist land managers to monitor land use, assess infrastructure and distribute resources. We found the U.S. west coast urban areas to have the fastest population growth with relatively small land consumption resulting in future decrease in per capita land use. Except for Miami (FL, most other U.S. large urban areas, especially in the Midwest, are growing spatially faster than their population and inadvertently consuming land needed for ecosystem services. In large cities, such as New York, Chicago, Houston and Miami, land development is expected more in suburban zones than urban cores. In contrast, in Los Angeles land development within the city core is greater than in its suburbs.

  6. Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

    2018-06-01

    Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons

  7. Landscaping Considerations for Urban Stream Restoration Projects

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bailey, Pam

    2004-01-01

    ... after restoration and its functionality for public use. The landscaping component of such stream and riparian restoration projects must be emphasized given its importance of visual success and public perception. The purpose of this technical note is to address landscaping considerations associated with urban stream and riparian restoration projects, and provide ideas to managers for enhancing the visual appeal and aesthetic qualities of urban projects.

  8. Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bren d'Amour, Christopher; Reitsma, Femke; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Barthel, Stephan; Güneralp, Burak; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Creutzig, Felix; Seto, Karen C

    2017-08-22

    Urban expansion often occurs on croplands. However, there is little scientific understanding of how global patterns of future urban expansion will affect the world's cultivated areas. Here, we combine spatially explicit projections of urban expansion with datasets on global croplands and crop yields. Our results show that urban expansion will result in a 1.8-2.4% loss of global croplands by 2030, with substantial regional disparities. About 80% of global cropland loss from urban expansion will take place in Asia and Africa. In both Asia and Africa, much of the cropland that will be lost is more than twice as productive as national averages. Asia will experience the highest absolute loss in cropland, whereas African countries will experience the highest percentage loss of cropland. Globally, the croplands that are likely to be lost were responsible for 3-4% of worldwide crop production in 2000. Urban expansion is expected to take place on cropland that is 1.77 times more productive than the global average. The loss of cropland is likely to be accompanied by other sustainability risks and threatens livelihoods, with diverging characteristics for different megaurban regions. Governance of urban area expansion thus emerges as a key area for securing livelihoods in the agrarian economies of the Global South.

  9. Connectivity-oriented urban projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Philibert Petit, E.

    2006-01-01

    This thesis is about connections in the built environment, networked connections for the mobility of people at the smallest scale of the urban realm: the pedestrian scale. It deals with applications of the new science of networks as a tool for observation and assessment of connectivity in the urban

  10. Projecting land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    John J. Lagrosa IV; Wayne C. Zipperer; Michael G. Andreu

    2018-01-01

    Urban landscapes are heterogeneous mosaics that develop via significant land-use and land cover (LULC) change. Current LULC models project future landscape patterns, but generally avoid urban landscapes due to heterogeneity. To project LULC change for an urban landscape, we parameterize an established LULC model (Dyna-CLUE) under baseline conditions (continued current...

  11. Urban Options Solar Greenhouse Demonstration Project. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cipparone, L.

    1980-10-15

    The following are included: the design process, construction, thermal performance, horticulture, educational activities, and future plans. Included in appendices are: greenhouse blueprints, insulating curtain details, workshop schedules, sample data forms, summary of performance calculations on the Urban Options Solar Greenhouse, data on vegetable production, publications, news articles on th Solar Greenhouse Project, and the financial statement. (MHR)

  12. Future Perspectives of the Implementation of EU Urban Agenda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olejnik Aleksandra

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This article is an overview of opinions and recommendations adopted in the European Union vis-à-vis urban policy. The author analyses the Pact of Amsterdam and future perspectives of the implementation of EU Urban Agenda.

  13. The Southern Forest Futures Project: technical report

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; John G. Greis

    2013-01-01

    Please visit the Southern Forest Futures Project website for more information.The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings...

  14. The Southern Forest Futures Project: summary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; John G. Greis

    2012-01-01

    The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings organized in a set of scenarios and using a combination of computer models and science synthesis, the authors of the Southern Forest Futures Project examine a variety of possible futures that could shape...

  15. Future Directions for Urban Forestry Research in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    John F. Dwyer; David J. Nowak; Gary W. Watson

    2002-01-01

    Urban forestry research promises to continue to be an integral part of the growth and development of forestry in urban and urbanizing areas of the United States. The future is expected to bring increased emphasis on research in support of the care of trees and other plants, ecological restoration, and comprehensive and adaptive management across the landscape....

  16. Key insights for the future of urban ecosystem services research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peleg Kremer

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the dynamics of urban ecosystem services is a necessary requirement for adequate planning, management, and governance of urban green infrastructure. Through the three-year Urban Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (URBES research project, we conducted case study and comparative research on urban biodiversity and ecosystem services across seven cities in Europe and the United States. Reviewing > 50 peer-reviewed publications from the project, we present and discuss seven key insights that reflect cumulative findings from the project as well as the state-of-the-art knowledge in urban ecosystem services research. The insights from our review indicate that cross-sectoral, multiscale, interdisciplinary research is beginning to provide a solid scientific foundation for applying the ecosystem services framework in urban areas and land management. Our review offers a foundation for seeking novel, nature-based solutions to emerging urban challenges such as wicked environmental change issues.

  17. Cities Farming for the Future : Urban Agriculture for Green and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Cities Farming for the Future : Urban Agriculture for Green and Productive Cities. Couverture du livre Cities Farming for the Future : Urban Agriculture for Green and Productive Cities. Directeur(s):. René van Veenhuizen. Maison(s) d'édition: IIRR, RUAF, CRDI. 1 janvier 2006. ISBN : 1930261144. 474 pages. e-ISBN :.

  18. Le futur du project LHC

    CERN Multimedia

    Heyoka

    2007-01-01

    Since 2004, and specitally during the long study in 2005, we used the results of the LHC Project to evaluate differents parameters of the machiene (LHC). The final choices for the design of the machine are based partly on these results. (1,5 page)

  19. The potential role of waste biomass in the future urban electricity system

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang, Yu; Werf, van der, Edwin; Ierland, van, Ekko C.; Keesman, Karel J.

    2017-01-01

    The share of intermittent renewable electricity (IRE) in the future urban electricity system is expected to increase significantly. Sufficient back-up capacity is needed in the period when IRE output is low. Bioenergy is both dispatchable and carbon-neutral, and can hence be a promising option to back up IRE. The objective of this study is to explore the potential of urban waste biomass in backing up IRE in an urban electricity system. An urban electricity system model is developed to project...

  20. Projecting future drug expenditures--2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, James M; Shah, Nilay D; Vermeulen, Lee C; Doloresco, Fred; Martin, Patrick K; Blake, Sharon; Matusiak, Linda; Hunkler, Robert J; Schumock, Glen T

    2009-02-01

    Drug expenditure trends in 2007 and 2008, projected drug expenditures for 2009, and factors likely to influence drug expenditures are discussed. Various factors are likely to influence drug expenditures in 2009, including drugs in development, the diffusion of new drugs, drug safety concerns, generic drugs, Medicare Part D, and changes in the drug supply chain. The increasing availability of important generic drugs and drug safety concerns continue to moderate growth in drug expenditures. The drug supply chain remains dynamic and may influence drug expenditures, particularly in specialized therapeutic areas. Initial data suggest that the Medicare Part D benefit has influenced drug expenditures, but the ultimate impact of the benefit on drug expenditures remains unclear. From 2006 to 2007, total U.S. drug expenditures increased by 4.0%, with total spending rising from $276 billion to $287 billion. Drug expenditures in clinics continue to grow more rapidly than in other settings, with a 9.9% increase from 2006 to 2007. Hospital drug expenditures increased at a moderate rate of only 1.6% from 2006 to 2007; through the first nine months of 2008, hospital drug expenditures increased by only 2.8% compared with the same period in 2007. In 2009, we project a 0-2% increase in drug expenditures in outpatient settings, a 1-3% increase in expenditures for clinic-administered drugs, and a 1-3% increase in hospital drug expenditures.

  1. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

    2015-01-01

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  2. Urbanization, Specialization and the Future of Magazines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burd, Gene

    Magazine journalism is not dead, despite the demise of many giant publications, but is thriving in new forms on the threshold of a new era whose trademark is urbanism. New publications recently appearing are primarily special audience magazines designed to fill the specific information needs of new groupings of readers. Since most of these new…

  3. Is Demography Destiny? Urban Population Change and Economic Vitality of Future Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Poot

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The growth of cities has attracted considerable scholarly attention during the last decade as it is becoming clear that powerful agglomeration forces are reinforcing the role of cities as the engines of economic growth. Close to 4 billion people live in cities, about 55 per cent of the world's population. While population growth rates are declining and the world's population is likely to level off from the middle of the 21st century, probably ending up around 10 billion, further urbanization is expected to continue. Another 3 billion people will become urban citizens this century. At the same time no corner of the world will be sheltered from sweeping demographic changes due to population ageing and increasing migration. Such changes will be amplified in cities. In this paper we combine UN population projections and migration data with our own assumptions to derive projections of age composition and birthplace composition of urban populations by continent. We also briefly address the consequences of these demographic trends for future urban economic vitality. Particular attention is paid to the impacts of demographic changes on urban creativity and innovation. We conclude that, with the right policies in place, such demographic changes enhance rather than impede the future prosperity of the urban world. KEYWORDS: World population projections, urbanization, ageing, migration, ethnic diversity

  4. A critical knowledge pathway to a sustainable future in an urbanizing planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero-Lankao, P.

    2014-12-01

    The pace and scale of contemporary urbanization is a defining feature of the Anthropocene, which characterizes the dominance of human influence on the global environment. Although urban areas occupy less than three percent of the global land surface, they have global-scale impacts on natural resources, social dynamics, human wellbeing and the environment. The global environmental changes already underway are profound and in some ways irreversible. Altogether, these have serious implications for future human and environmental health, and social wellbeing. Despite considerable research and policy attention to cities, efforts are strongly needed towards integration that builds upon this and facilitates intensive interactions among disciplines in developing new perspectives, theory and methods for understanding urbanizations and urban systems as they drive and are affected by global environmental change, and for exploring options to achieve sustainability and resilience in an urbanizing world. I will present initial outcomes from a 2014 NSF/Future Earth-funded activity to develop a co-designed and interdisciplinary urban initiative within the Future Earth framework. The complexity of urban systems and the global sustainability challenges we face require inter- and trans-disciplinary research approaches that adopt a contextual approach to finding solutions. I will synthesize perspectives spanning multiple urban research and practice communities from workshops that took place over 2014 including the 2104 UGEC Conference, where emphasis was given to exploring: knowledge gaps and key urban research and socially-relevant questions moving forward; major challenges and opportunities for developing conceptual and methodological frameworks that support the global transformation to sustainability in the context of an urbanizing planet; operational mechanisms that must be in place for a successful interdisciplinary urban project that fits within Future Earth.

  5. Method for predicting future developments of traffic noise in urban areas in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salomons, E.; Hout, D. van den; Janssen, S.; Kugler, U.; MacA, V.

    2010-01-01

    Traffic noise in urban areas in Europe is a major environmental stressor. In this study we present a method for predicting how environmental noise can be expected to develop in the future. In the project HEIMTSA scenarios were developed for all relevant environmental stressors to health, for all

  6. A Strategic Project Appraisal framework for ecologically sustainable urban infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrissey, John; Iyer-Raniga, Usha; McLaughlin, Patricia; Mills, Anthony

    2012-01-01

    Actors in the built environment are progressively considering environmental and social issues alongside functional and economic aspects of development projects. Infrastructure projects represent major investment and construction initiatives with attendant environmental, economic and societal impacts across multiple scales. To date, while sustainability strategies and frameworks have focused on wider national aspirations and strategic objectives, they are noticeably weak in addressing micro-level integrated decision making in the built environment, particularly for infrastructure projects. The proposed approach of this paper is based on the principal that early intervention is the most cost-effective and efficient means of mitigating the environmental effects of development projects, particularly macro infrastructure developments. A strategic overview of the various project alternatives, taking account for stakeholder and expert input, could effectively reduce project impacts/risks at low cost to the project developers but provide significant benefit to wider communities, including communities of future stakeholders. This paper is the first exploratory step in developing a more systematic framework for evaluating strategic alternatives for major metropolitan infrastructure projects, based on key sustainability principles. The developed Strategic Project Appraisal (SPA) framework, grounded in the theory of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), provides a means of practically appraising project impacts and alternatives in terms of quantified ecological limits; addresses the neglected topic of metropolitan infrastructure as a means of delivering sustainability outcomes in the urban context and more broadly, seeks to open a debate on the potential for SEA methodology to be more extensively applied to address sustainability challenges in the built environment. Practically applied and timed appropriately, the SPA framework can enable better decision-making and more

  7. A method to study the management of urban development projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heurkens, E.

    2011-01-01

    The management of urban development projects in the Netherlands has changed significantly in recent years. These projects have become mainly ‘led’ by developers as they manage the entire life cycle of development projects, while public actors mainly facilitate development projects. This changes the

  8. Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Messen, Dmitry

    2005-01-01

    By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

  9. A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modeling in Future Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dasaraden Mauree

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Building more energy-efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effects of climate change and anticipate living conditions in future climate scenarios requires the development of new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architects and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099 were run, as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P. We analyzed the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of buildings and determined the relevance of taking into account the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations confirmed that in the future, there will be a constant decrease in the heating demand, while the cooling demand will substantially increase. Significantly, it was further demonstrated that when the local urban climate was taken into account, there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand, but also that a set of proposed Minergie-P renovations were not sufficient to achieve resilient buildings. We discuss the implication of this work for the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighborhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspectives regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for future urban areas.

  10. Costing Future Complex and Novel Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) is reported. The work involves pioneering data collection, analysis, and tool development to support... philosophy of the work and future prospects for its wider application. Summary The United Kingdom National Audit Office Major Projects Report 2014 states...the work will be in tackling variety in the data collected, one of the “3 Vs ” of Big Data. The outline programme is shown in Figure 2. Programme

  11. Commercial facilities in future cities and urban redevelopment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-07-01

    The future trends of commercial facilities were clarified by interviewing the people concerned in the commercial facilities with large floor area and relatively large energy consumption per unit area such as office building, hospital, hotel, department store, restaurant, educational facilities, sports facilities and urban redevelopment. Since an intelligent building will basically employ the office automation, it is estimated that most of the commercial buildings constructed for the future redevelopment will be intelligent buildings. Hospitals will require the system maintaining the quality of life of individual patient. It is expected that high quality hotels focusing on a touch of high class will be constructed. Department stores will aim at the daily living industry. Future restaurants will need a definite concept. Universities will have to increase new sections according to new students and change in social conditions. It is expected that high quality businesses districts and living quarters in business-centered cities will be planned for urban redevelopment. (4 figs. 3 tabs.)

  12. Good Practice Lessons from the Urban Traffic Project, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    2002-01-01

    In 1990, as the first government in the world, the Danish Cabinet approved a national action plan for sustainable transport. In 1992, as part of the implementation of this plan, the Urban Traffic Project was set up with the EPA. The policy situation was one of a state agency trying to motivate...... urban municipalities to work with T&E (transport and environment) integration, i.e. integration of concerns for safety, energy, air quality, noise etc. in urban traffic planning. 50 major urban municipalities participated in the project. The most important lessons to be learned from the project are: (1......) With a fairly modest investment (DKK 150 million in seed money) it has been possible on a voluntary basis to motivate the majority of urban municipalities to work with T&E integration. (2) The top motivating factor for municipalities to participate was a desire for organisational and professional learning. (3...

  13. Performativity and the project: enacting urban transport security in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoijtink, M.

    2015-01-01

    In April 2011, a large consortium of European rail and security suppliers, transport operators and research organisations launched the Secured Urban Transportation - European Demonstration (SECUR-ED) project with the objective of providing public transport operators with the means to enhance urban

  14. Projected climate change futures for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tadross, M

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa. In these experiments, a variable-resolution atmospheric global circulation model, CCAM, was applied as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate both present-day and future climate... climate projection Observed climate RCM Climate forcing Climate simulation Statistical downscaling Dynamical downscaling 22 | Second Edition There are four pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. RCP 2.6 describes a scenario of very low...

  15. Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), Alpha Version

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), Alpha Version consists of estimates of human population for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000 by 30 arc-second (1km)...

  16. Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems for Future Urban Energy Retrofitting Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Lombardi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, there is an increasing concern about sustainable urban energy development taking into account national priorities of each city. Many cities have started to define future strategies and plans to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Urban energy scenarios involve the consideration of a wide range of conflicting criteria, both socio-economic and environmental ones. Moreover, decision-makers (DMs require proper tools that can support their choices in a context of multiple stakeholders and a long-term perspective. In this context, Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems (MC-SDSS are often used in order to define and analyze urban scenarios since they support the comparison of different solutions, based on a combination of multiple factors. The main problem, in relation to urban energy retrofitting scenarios, is the lack of appropriate knowledge and evaluation criteria. The latter are crucial for delivering and assessing urban energy scenarios through a MC-SDSS tool. The main goal of this paper is to analyze and test two different methods for the definition and ranking of the evaluation criteria. More specifically, the paper presents an on-going research study related to the development of a MC-SDSS tool able to identify and evaluate alternative energy urban scenarios in a long-term period perspective. This study refers to two Smart City and Communities research projects, namely: DIMMER (District Information Modeling and Management for Energy Reduction and EEB (Zero Energy Buildings in Smart Urban Districts.

  17. Institutional interventions in complex urban systems: Coping with boundary issues in urban planning projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Verweij (Stefan); I.F. van Meerkerk (Ingmar); J.F.M. Koppenjan (Joop); H. Geerlings (Harry)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Urban planning projects are planned and organized through arrangements between actors. These arrangements are institutional interventions: they intervene in the institutional landscape as existing organizational boundaries are (temporarily) redrawn. Such boundary

  18. Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1): Urban Extent Polygons, Revision 01

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The primary output of the Global Rural Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) are a series of grids representing estimated population counts and density for the...

  19. BUBBLE - an urban boundary layer meteorology project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rotach, M.W.; Vogt, R.; Bernhofer, C.

    2005-01-01

    ground truth, as well as on urban turbulence and profiling (sodar, RASS, tethered balloon) were performed. Also tracer experiments with near-roof-level release and sampling were performed. In parallel to the experimental activities within BUBBLE, a meso-scale numerical atmospheric model, which contains...

  20. Future-Adapted Urban Structures Utopia, Vision, or Necessity?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolf Tietze

    2003-05-01

    Full Text Available Behavioural preferences of people are changing rapidly andmaking use of all sons of technical opponunities or progress.These changes mark a general and global process usually summarizedby the term "urbanization" - rightly referring to urbansettlements. Towns and cities are parlicularly prominent manifestationsof cultural achievements of mankind. They are, atthe same time, the most imporlant means of housing, and aretools to create the values for the material base of life. Most citiesand towns do, however, cope no more with the speed of development,they lag behind and end up in structural chaos, theyfail to adapt to the future requirements. As analysis reveals, theforemost reason is inadequate location of functions resulting inunnecessary traffic. Urban settlements are inefficient, indeed,strangling themselves.To help solve this problem a model is presented here of afull-fledged city of average size. Implementation may be accomplishedpiecemeal. It is a realistic target, it is not utopia butnecessity.

  1. Applying Spatial Indicators to Support Sustainable Urban Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrov, Laura Oana; Shahumyan, Harutyun; Williams, Brendan

    2013-01-01

    structural analysis, FRAGSTATS, and ArcGIS software packages. The developed indicators form a valuable and complementary addition to the planning and policy process due to their interdisciplinary and practical nature. They were elaborated based on discussions with scientists, policy-makers and stakeholders......Indicators are helpful tools for land use management, particularly in the context of sustainable urban development. Together with scenarios they are a key requirement in order to produce information for stakeholders and policy-makers and aid their understanding of development processes. Using...... these information products and tools, policy-makers can be given the opportunity to spatially interrogate the driving forces and the current state of urban development. Understanding how trends will develop in the future and the possible impacts of their decisions on the development process is vital...

  2. The future of large old trees in urban landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Roux, Darren S; Ikin, Karen; Lindenmayer, David B; Manning, Adrian D; Gibbons, Philip

    2014-01-01

    Large old trees are disproportionate providers of structural elements (e.g. hollows, coarse woody debris), which are crucial habitat resources for many species. The decline of large old trees in modified landscapes is of global conservation concern. Once large old trees are removed, they are difficult to replace in the short term due to typically prolonged time periods needed for trees to mature (i.e. centuries). Few studies have investigated the decline of large old trees in urban landscapes. Using a simulation model, we predicted the future availability of native hollow-bearing trees (a surrogate for large old trees) in an expanding city in southeastern Australia. In urban greenspace, we predicted that the number of hollow-bearing trees is likely to decline by 87% over 300 years under existing management practices. Under a worst case scenario, hollow-bearing trees may be completely lost within 115 years. Conversely, we predicted that the number of hollow-bearing trees will likely remain stable in semi-natural nature reserves. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the number of hollow-bearing trees perpetuated in urban greenspace over the long term is most sensitive to the: (1) maximum standing life of trees; (2) number of regenerating seedlings ha(-1); and (3) rate of hollow formation. We tested the efficacy of alternative urban management strategies and found that the only way to arrest the decline of large old trees requires a collective management strategy that ensures: (1) trees remain standing for at least 40% longer than currently tolerated lifespans; (2) the number of seedlings established is increased by at least 60%; and (3) the formation of habitat structures provided by large old trees is accelerated by at least 30% (e.g. artificial structures) to compensate for short term deficits in habitat resources. Immediate implementation of these recommendations is needed to avert long term risk to urban biodiversity.

  3. Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Xiaoliang Tong

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world’s population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China’s current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country’s capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future.

  4. Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

    2015-09-07

    China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world's population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China's current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country's capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future.

  5. Noise computation for future urban air traffic systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arntzen, M.; Aalmoes, R.; Bussink, F.; Sunil, E.; Hoekstra, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    The development of Personal aerial vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles are expected to have a considerable influence on the development of future airspace design around large cities. In the Metropolis project, four different concepts for airspace design are assessed for a (metropolitan) city of

  6. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Local Institutional Development and Organizational Change for Advancing Sustainable Urban Water Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Rebekah R.

    2008-02-01

    This paper presents the local institutional and organizational development insights from a five-year ongoing interdisciplinary research project focused on advancing the implementation of sustainable urban water management. While it is broadly acknowledged that the inertia associated with administrative systems is possibly the most significant obstacle to advancing sustainable urban water management, contemporary research still largely prioritizes investigations at the technological level. This research is explicitly concerned with critically informing the design of methodologies for mobilizing and overcoming the administrative inertia of traditional urban water management practice. The results of fourteen in-depth case studies of local government organizations across Metropolitan Sydney primarily reveal that (i) the political institutionalization of environmental concern and (ii) the commitment to local leadership and organizational learning are key corporate attributes for enabling sustainable management. A typology of five organizational development phases has been proposed as both a heuristic and capacity benchmarking tool for urban water strategists, policy makers, and decision makers that are focused on improving the level of local implementation of sustainable urban water management activity. While this investigation has focused on local government, these findings do provide guideposts for assessing the development needs of future capacity building programs across a range of different institutional contexts.

  8. For An Urban Wikipedia. The Challenges of the Urban Project. Maurizio Carta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurizio Carta

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The city is the pre-eminent encyclopedia of the community, a place where all the components of life, its definition and all its reciprocal relationships are found (Harvey 1989.  In the urban century in which we all are immersed goes from the encyclopedia to the urban Wikipedia: that is a collective, cognitive project in which the inhabitants and the operators, the decision-makers and the participants, the project makers and the actors make up the structure, continually enriching it with the change of practices, with the interpretation of its meanings and intentions. In order to make, understand, represent and transmit the urban Wikipedia, its chronological stratification, its spatial creases, its architectural harmony and often even its social dissonance, we are obliged to create a new epistemology which is capable of evaluating and of utilizing the multiplicity of territorial identities and that knows how to activate new forms of project making.

  9. The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2014-01-01

    The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

  10. Reducing construction waste: A study of urban infrastructure projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Magalhães, Ruane Fernandes; Danilevicz, Ângela de Moura Ferreira; Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu

    2017-09-01

    The construction industry is well-known for producing waste detrimental to the environment, and its impacts have increased with the development process of cities. Although there are several studies focused on the environmental impact of residential and commercial buildings, less knowledge is available regarding decreasing construction waste (CW) generation in urban infrastructure projects. This study presents best practices to reduce waste in the said projects, stressing the role of decision-making in the design stage and the effective management of construction processes in public sector. The best practices were identified from literature review, document analysis in 14 projects of urban infrastructure, and both qualitative and quantitative survey with 18 experts (architects and engineers) playing different roles on those projects. The contributions of these research are: (i) the identification of the main building techniques related to the urban design typologies analyzed; (ii) the identification of cause-effect relationships between the design choices and the CW generation diagnosis; (iii) the proposal of a checklist to support the decision-making process, that can be used as a control and evaluation instrument when developing urban infrastructure designs, focused on the construction waste minimization (CWM). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Lauwaet

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005 and future (2081–2100 climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban heat island of eight different cities, located on three continents, is quantified and assessed, with an unprecedented horizontal resolution of a few hundred meters. For all cities, urban and rural air temperatures are found to increase strongly, up to 7 °C. However, the urban heat island intensity in most cases increases only slightly, often even below the range of uncertainty. A potential explanation, focusing on the role of increased incoming longwave radiation, is put forth. Finally, an alternative method for generating urban climate projections is proposed, combining the ensemble temperature change statistics and the results of the present-day urban climate.

  12. Experiences and Challenges of Community Participation in Urban Renewal Projects: The Case of Johannesburg, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wellington Didibhuku Thwala

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Urban renewal and inner city regeneration have become critical efforts for the South African government, which has invested in several structures to stem the tide of decline in its nine major cities. Commitment to the alleviation of poverty is a focal point of the renewal and regeneration agenda and will remain so in the future. This effort is motivated by the fact that around 24% of the South African population currently lives on less than USD 1.00 per day, below the poverty line defined by the World Bank. The Central Government has made numerous public commitments to development, a part of which concerns extensive infrastructure investment and service delivery. Communities are expected to participate fully in the planning and implementation of these urban renewal projects. To this aim, participation is a process through which stakeholders influence and share control over development initiatives and the decisions and resources which affect them. Community participation should be aimed at empowering people by ensuring the development of skills and the creation of employment opportunities. This paper first explores the concept of community participation, and will then look at relevant past experiences in relation to community participation in urban renewal projects. Furthermore, the paper outlines the challenges and problems of community participation in urban renewal projects in Johannesburg, and finally, close with recommendations for the future.

  13. Evaluation of Urban Planning Projects Criteria Using Fuzzy AHP Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walid Mustafa Kamas

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In this research, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process technique is applied (Fuzzy AHP which is one of multi-criteria decision making techniques to evaluate the criteria for urban planning projects, the project of developing master plan of Al-Muqdadiyah city to 2035 has been chosen as a case study. The researcher prepared a list of criteria in addition to the authorized departments criteria and previous researches in order to choose optimized master plan according to these criteria. This research aims at employing the foundations of (Fuzzy AHP technique in evaluating urban planning criteria precisely and flexible. The results of the data analysis to the individuals of the sample who are specialists, in this aspect. The land use criteria are more important than the rest of the criteria in these projects, where it received the relative importance with percentile (42.1 %.

  14. Future challenges for woody biomass projections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schadauer, K.; Barreiro, Susana; Schelhaas, M.; McRoberts, Ronald E.

    2017-01-01

    Many drivers affect woody biomass projections including forest available for wood supply, market behavior, forest ownership, distributions by age and yield classes, forest typologies resulting from different edaphic, climatic conditions, and last but not least, how these factors are incorporated

  15. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  16. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

    2017-07-01

    Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  17. Seismic studies for Fermilab future collider projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauh, J.; Shiltsev, V.

    1997-11-01

    Ground motion can cause significant beam emittance growth and orbit oscillations in large hadron colliders due to a vibration of numerous focusing magnets. Larger accelerator ring circumference leads to smaller revolution frequency and, e.g. for the Fermilab Very Large Hadron Collider(VLHC) 50-150 Hz vibrations are of particular interest as they are resonant with the beam betatron frequency. Seismic measurements at an existing large accelerator under operation can help to estimate the vibrations generated by the technical systems in future machines. Comparison of noisy and quiet microseismic conditions might be useful for proper choice of technical solutions for future colliders. This article presents results of wide-band seismic measurements at the Fermilab site, namely, in the tunnel of the Tevatron and on the surface nearby, and in two deep tunnels in the Illinois dolomite which is though to be a possible geological environment of the future accelerators

  18. Urban CO2 emissions metabolism: The Hestia Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurney, K. R.; Razlivanov, I.; Zhou, Y.; Song, Y.

    2011-12-01

    A central expression of urban metabolism is the consumption of energy and the resulting environmental impact, particularly the emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Quantification of energy and emissions has been performed for numerous cities but rarely has this been done in explicit space/time detail. Here, we present the Hestia Project, an effort aimed at building a high resolution (eg. building and road link-specific, hourly) fossil fuel CO2 emissions data product for the urban domain. A complete data product has been built for the city of Indianapolis and work is ongoing for the city of Los Angeles (Figure 1). The effort in Indianapolis is now part of a larger effort aimed at a convergent top-down/bottom-up assessment of greenhouse gas emissions, called INFLUX. Our urban-level quantification relies on a mixture of data and modeling structures. We start with the sector-specific Vulcan Project estimate at the mix of geocoded and county-wide levels. The Hestia aim is to distribute the Vulcan result in space and time. Two components take the majority of effort: buildings and onroad emissions. For the buildings, we utilize an energy building model which we constrain through lidar data, county assessor parcel data and GIS layers. For onroad emissions, we use a combination of traffic data and GIS road layers maintaining vehicle class information. Finally, all pointwise data in the Vulcan Project are transferred to our urban landscape and additional time distribution is performed. A key benefit of the approach taken in this study is the tracking and archiving of fuel and process-level detail (eg. combustion process, other pollutants), allowing for a more thorough understanding and analysis of energy throughputs in the urban environment. Next steps in this research from the metabolism perspective is to consider the carbon footprint of material goods and their lateral transfer in addition to the connection between electricity consumption and production.

  19. The Cernavoda project - past and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glodeanu, F.; Campureanu, T.; Chirica, T.; Popescu, D.

    1995-01-01

    The history of the Cernavoda nuclear power station in Romania is traced. It was conceived in 1977 as five unit CANDU-6 station and agreements were concluded on engineering, procurement and financial assistance with Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) and Ansaldo of Italy. Delays in construction were created from the first, however, by efforts to manufacture as many components as possible in Romania, unfamiliarity with nuclear project management and the disadvantages of a highly centralised economy. Political changes since December 1989 have led to a new approach to project implementation. The Romanian Electricity Authority (RENEL), signed a new contract with AECL and Ansaldo in August 1991 to perform the project management for the completion of Cernavoda 1. The project has progressed very well and by the beginning of 1995 more than 90% of the plant systems were ready for commissioning and a full operating shift was in place. As a second phase of the nuclear power programme RENEL plans to complete Cernavoda 2, the construction of which was suspended at 30% completion. The three other units will be preserved in their present preliminary stage of construction up to 2000 while finance is sought for their completion. Nuclear power is seen as an environmentally clean means of meeting Romania's growing energy demand as the economy develops. (UK)

  20. Future development of project management competences.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silvius, A.J.G.; Batenburg, R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences of the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were

  1. Third-world development: urbanizing for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcilwaine, C

    1997-01-01

    This article reviews some issues reflected in the 1996 UN Habitat II agenda and recent research on urbanization. The themes of the 1996 Habitat conference were urban development, urban poverty, and governance, civil society, and social capital. It is expected that over 50% of total world population will live in cities in the year 2000. Cities are viewed both as engines of economic growth and centers of severe economic, environmental, and social problems. There is some disagreement about whether cities are rational economic structures or what the World Bank's urban agenda is and its relationship with macroeconomic policy. Discussions of global urban issues are criticized for their neglect of issues of equity and poverty, cultural diversity, and identity and representation. Habitat II also stressed urban sustainability. There is growing recognition that urban management involves more than the "Brown Agenda" of environmental and physical aspects of urban growth. Recent studies identify how politics and power affect people's access to basic urban services. Urban economic activity can also contribute to environmental problems. Urban growth affects the provision of health services. Although there is not a consensus on the role of cities in expanding economic and social development and the best management practices, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that urban processes are varied throughout the developing world. The links between urban and rural areas differentiate cities and expose the need to understand the role of intermediate urban areas surrounding and between larger cities. Poverty has become increasingly urbanized, but the extent of poverty is unknown. Habitat II was an unprecedented effort to engage nongovernment groups, local government staff, trade unions, and the private sector and to emphasize community participation. Networks of trust and reciprocity are key to solving poverty, inequality, and disempowerment problems.

  2. ART PUBLIC PARTICIPATION AND URBAN REGENERATION. Mapping LA MINA PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Núria Ricart

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of public art throughout the twentieth century has resulted since the 60’s in a kind of practical intervention in the urban domain with a strong social and participatory intention. This paper presents several of these projects in relation to the kind of participattory levels, and detecting different trends. The paper Specially focuses on the project “Cartografies de La Mina”, developed in Sant Adrià de Besòs (Barcelona between 2002 and 2005 by the POLIS Research Centre at the University of Barcelona.

  3. Project Management 2027; The Future of Project Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drs. A.J.G. Silvius

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences op the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were

  4. Modelling land-use effects of future urbanization using cellular automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, B.; Hansen, H.S.

    2013-01-01

    project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2040 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and modelled using the cellular automata model LUCIA. For the modelling, an Eastern......The modelling of land use change is a way to analyse future scenarios by modelling different pathways. Application of spatial data of different scales coupled with socio-economic data makes it possible to explore and test the understanding of land use change relations. In the EU-FP7 research...... Danish case area was selected, comprising of the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different descriptive GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban density and structure...

  5. The Future of Project Management in Technical Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kampf, Constance

    2006-01-01

    Project Management increasing shapes workplace communication, especially when technical commuicators participate in cross-disciplinary development teams. This paper looks at the future of project management in technical communication and argues for a communicative approach to project management...... for technical communication students. The Project Management course in the International Bachelor Program of Marketing and Management Communication at the Aarhus School of Business is described, and the implications fortechnical communication curricula are discussed....

  6. Exploiting Earth observation data pools for urban analysis: the TEP URBAN project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heldens, W.; Esch, T.; Asamer, H.; Boettcher, M.; Brito, F.; Hirner, A.; Marconcini, M.; Mathot, E.; Metz, A.; Permana, H.; Zeidler, J.; Balhar, J.; Soukop, T.; Stankek, F.

    2017-10-01

    Large amounts of Earth observation (EO) data have been collected to date, to increase even more rapidly with the upcoming Sentinel data. All this data contains unprecedented information, yet it is hard to retrieve, especially for nonremote sensing specialists. As we live in an urban era, with more than 50% of the world population living in cities, urban studies can especially benefit from the EO data. Information is needed for sustainable development of cities, for the understanding of urban growth patterns or for studying the threats of natural hazards or climate change. Bridging this gap between the technology-driven EO sector and the information needs of environmental science, planning, and policy is the driver behind the TEP-Urban project. Modern information technology functionalities and services are tested and implemented in the Urban Thematic Exploitation Platform (U-TEP). The platform enables interested users to easily exploit and generate thematic information on the status and development of the environment based on EO data and technologies. The beta version of the web platform contains value added basic earth observation data, global thematic data sets, and tools to derive user specific indicators and metrics. The code is open source and the architecture of the platform allows adding of new data sets and tools. These functionalities and concepts support the four basic use scenarios of the U-TEP platform: explore existing thematic content; task individual on-demand analyses; develop, deploy and offer your own content or application; and, learn more about innovative data sets and methods.

  7. Nuclear data. Situation and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bioux, P.

    1995-01-01

    Nuclear power provides the major part of the electricity generation in France, using a system of highly developed Pressurized Water Reactors. Electricite de France, which is responsible for the exploitation of this system, is concerned to ensure the continuity of the expertise and facilities which provide relevant basic scientific information contributing to the efficient exploitation of the system and, in particular, the continuity of the means for providing relevant nuclear data. The nuclear data requirements for the exploitation of the existing nuclear power system have been largely met. However, there remain some needs, in particular in the field of reactor neutronics. Furthermore if one considers the future (for example, the next 10 years) it is not certain that will be possible to meet the needs which are expected to arise. The review, commissioned on behalf of EDF, about the current status and future expectations for work in this field, has shown certain tendencies in the international situation. In particular one notes a general reduction in the effort both in Western Europe and the United States. This negative tendency can perhaps be explained by the almost general reduction world-wide in new nuclear power developments. However, unresolved problems remain, such as the development of methods for reducing the stocks of plutonium and the incineration and storage of a nuclear waste of long duration. In addition improvements in the accuracy of nuclear data could result in non-negligible economic benefits in the exploitation of the existing nuclear facilities. For these very important reasons it is desirable to reverse the present trend. (author). 2 annexes

  8. Chicago's urban forest ecosystem: results of the Chicago Urban Forest Climate Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory E. McPherson; David J. Nowak; Rowan A. Rowntree

    1994-01-01

    Results of the 3-year Chicago Urban Forest Climate Project indicate that there are an estimated 50.8 million trees in the Chicago area of Cook and DuPage Counties; 66 percent of these trees rated in good or excellent condition. During 1991, trees in the Chicago area removed an estimated 6,145 tons of air pollutants, providing air cleansing valued at $9.2 million...

  9. UAS Integration in the NAS Project and Future Autonomy Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Charles W.

    2014-01-01

    This presentation highlights NASA use of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and related technologies for civil purposes. This briefing will give more insight into the UAS projects progress and future goals.

  10. Future perspectives - proposal for Oxford Physiome Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oku, Yoshitaka

    2010-01-01

    The Physiome Project is an effort to understand living creatures using "analysis by synthesis" strategy, i.e., by reproducing their behaviors. In order to achieve its goal, sharing developed models between different computer languages and application programs to incorporate into integrated models is critical. To date, several XML-based markup languages has been developed for this purpose. However, source codes written with XML-based languages are very difficult to read and edit using text editors. An alternative way is to use an object-oriented meta-language, which can be translated to different computer languages and transplanted to different application programs. Object-oriented languages are suitable for describing structural organization by hierarchical classes and taking advantage of statistical properties to reduce the number of parameter while keeping the complexity of behaviors. Using object-oriented languages to describe each element and posting it to a public domain should be the next step to build up integrated models of the respiratory control system.

  11. Energy futures project : backgrounder for consultation sessions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhargava, A.

    2006-05-01

    The National Energy Board periodically publishes a long-term energy and demand report as part of an ongoing monitoring program. The next report is planned for release in 2007. This background document provided background information to ensure that consultation participants have a common understanding of key issues to be addressed during the cross-country consultations that have been planned before the release of the final version of the report. An outline of the proposed analytical approach was presented, as well as details of major assumptions and scenario storylines. Scenario themes included: economic, energy and environmental sustainability; a security-focused world shaped by war and civil strife; and strong global economic growth fueled by the rapid growth of the Chinese and Indian economies. A methodology overview was provided as well as a reference case. Issues related to energy supply included oil; natural gas liquids; natural gas; and electricity. Issues related to energy demand included the residential sector; the commercial sector; the industrial sector; and the transportation sector. Historical trends and forecasts were outlined using the macroeconomic variable of interest. Supply, demand, and supporting infrastructure across all energy forms within a North American and global context were considered. The impact of environmental management strategies were reviewed, as well as the role of the government in shaping policies. It was concluded that the purpose of the final report is to serve as a standard of references for parties interested in Canadian energy issues and trends as well as to inform decision makers of key risks and uncertainties facing the energy future.9 tabs., 1 fig

  12. The future of global urbanization and the environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rob McDonald; Burak Guneralp; Wayne Zipperer; Peter Marcotullio

    2014-01-01

    Using findings of the Cities and Biodiversity Outlook (CBO), we propose three specific solutions to mitigate the loss ofecosystem services and biodiversity in our urban and urbanizing landscapes. The CBO identified continued loss of criticalhabitats for biodiversity conservation and degradation of many important ecosystem services due to...

  13. The Challenge of Urban and Regional Development in the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tedjo Suminto

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The task of development is part of the overall national task carried out along governance. This task has been entrusted to the government as a gradual long-term task, planning, and sustainable. Implied in it, the intention to achieve a better state. Contained within the dimension of time setting goals, achieving goals, and overall utilization of benefits for citizens throughout the country. Enshrined also be aware that there will be found a variety of difficulties, limitations, and problems that must be solved. The problems of urban development in Indonesia can be viewed from two approaches, namely macro and micro approaches. A macro approach urban problems are reviewed in the context of the region (national scale. While the approach is seen as a micro city neighborhoods. This problem is closely related to the natural growth of the city population and population migration. Based on research on urban and regional development, it can be concluded: 1 the problem of urbanization of rural and small towns to large cities should be addressed; 2 urban spatial arrangements should be improved to do with increasingly limited land for development and urban development; 3 the provision of facilities and infrastructure of the city, city management, and financing of urban development, integration between government, society, and the private sector should be increased; 4 study of urban models that can accommodate all the problems of the city should be developed continuously.

  14. Urbanization: the pipelines ROW (Right-of-Way) future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribeiro, Gilberto; Malzone, Vivian de Araujo Oliveira [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    The accelerated process of urbanization that is shifting the aspects of Brazilian cities - most clearly in South East and South region states - is inherently involved with decayed levels of quality of life and little or any concern at all with the sustainability of such urban expansion. Besides the social difficulties generated from this non-planned growth - mainly in the cities' outskirts - there are many questions related to urbanization that should be reconsidered such as water, soil and air pollution; lack of water resources; floods, insufficient public transport and traffic problems; urban infra-structure and lodging privations and inadequate soil installment. This paper aims at showing how this disordered urban growth plays an important role on PETROBRAS' pipeline right of way located at the great cities urban areas, more specifically the Urban Right Of Way that cross the metropolitan region of the city of Sao Paulo. Also, it is an objective to express how such urbanization propitiate the execution of basic infra-structure in a way of integrating habitation, sanitation, environment and geotechnical sectors with the purposes of PETROBRAS of maintaining as priority the integrity of the pipelines located on the ROW as well as the integrity of these ROW themselves. (author)

  15. Space Applications in Support of Future Urban Development in Armenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alhaddad, Bahaaeddin; Reppucci, Antonio; Moreno, Laura

    2016-08-01

    The fast growing of some cities has produced important changes in the urban sectors not always following sustainability criteria. As results, most urban growth falls outside formal planning controls and many cities suffer poor urban services management, traffic, and congestion, loss of green areas, poor air quality, and noise. The main advantages of satellite-based EO products are to support the decision-making process, and the development and operation of smart services. Satellite-based urban morphology analysis can help to identify the transformation of the urban development and evolution. The pilot presented here is a demonstration in the framework of the collaboration between ESA and ADB, called EOTAP "Earth Observation for a Transforming Asia Pacific". Aim of the pilot is to exploit satellite Earth observation data for sustainable growth and help preparing a series of city development and investment plans.

  16. Futures of global urban expansion: uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güneralp, B.; Seto, K. C.

    2013-03-01

    Urbanization will place significant pressures on biodiversity across the world. However, there are large uncertainties in the amount and location of future urbanization, particularly urban land expansion. Here, we present a global analysis of urban extent circa 2000 and probabilistic forecasts of urban expansion for 2030 near protected areas and in biodiversity hotspots. We estimate that the amount of urban land within 50 km of all protected area boundaries will increase from 450 000 km2 circa 2000 to 1440 000 ± 65 000 km2 in 2030. Our analysis shows that protected areas around the world will experience significant increases in urban land within 50 km of their boundaries. China will experience the largest increase in urban land near protected areas with 304 000 ± 33 000 km2 of new urban land to be developed within 50 km of protected area boundaries. The largest urban expansion in biodiversity hotspots, over 100 000 ± 25 000 km2, is forecasted to occur in South America. Uncertainties in the forecasts of the amount and location of urban land expansion reflect uncertainties in their underlying drivers including urban population and economic growth. The forecasts point to the need to reconcile urban development and biodiversity conservation strategies.

  17. Futures of global urban expansion: uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Güneralp, B; Seto, K C

    2013-01-01

    Urbanization will place significant pressures on biodiversity across the world. However, there are large uncertainties in the amount and location of future urbanization, particularly urban land expansion. Here, we present a global analysis of urban extent circa 2000 and probabilistic forecasts of urban expansion for 2030 near protected areas and in biodiversity hotspots. We estimate that the amount of urban land within 50 km of all protected area boundaries will increase from 450 000 km 2 circa 2000 to 1440 000 ± 65 000 km 2 in 2030. Our analysis shows that protected areas around the world will experience significant increases in urban land within 50 km of their boundaries. China will experience the largest increase in urban land near protected areas with 304 000 ± 33 000 km 2 of new urban land to be developed within 50 km of protected area boundaries. The largest urban expansion in biodiversity hotspots, over 100 000 ± 25 000 km 2 , is forecasted to occur in South America. Uncertainties in the forecasts of the amount and location of urban land expansion reflect uncertainties in their underlying drivers including urban population and economic growth. The forecasts point to the need to reconcile urban development and biodiversity conservation strategies. (letter)

  18. PROJECT CI-NERGY: TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED ENERGY URBAN PLANNING SYSTEM FROM A DATA MODELLING AND SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Agugiaro

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Growing urbanisation, its related environmental impacts, and social inequalities in cities are challenges requiring a holistic urban planning perspective that takes into account the different aspects of sustainable development. One crucial point is to reconcile urban planning with environmental targets, which include decreasing energy demand and CO2 emissions, and increasing the share of renewable energy. Within this context, the project CI-NERGY aims to develop urban energy modelling, simulation and optimisation methods and tools to support decision making in urban planning. However, there are several barriers to the implementation of such tools, such as: fragmentation of involved disciplines, different stakeholders, multiplicity of scales in a city and extreme heterogeneity of data regarding all the processes to be addressed. Project CI-NERGY aims, among other goals, at overcoming these barriers, and focuses on two case study cities, Geneva in Switzerland and Vienna in Austria. In particular, project CI-NERGY faces several challenges starting with different cities, heterogeneous data sources and simulation tools, diverse user groups and their individual needs. This paper describes the experiences gathered during the project. After giving a brief overview of the project, the two case study cities, Geneva and Vienna, are briefly presented, and the focus shifts then on overall system architecture of the project, ranging from urban data modelling topics to the implementation of a Service-Oriented Architecture. Some of the challenges faced, the solutions found, as well some plans for future improvements are described and commented.

  19. Green Urbanism for the Greener Future of Metropolitan Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaręba, Anna; Krzemińska, Alicja; Widawski, Krzysztof

    2016-10-01

    Intensive urbanization is swallowing municipal green areas which causes intensification of erosion, decrease in biodiversity and permanent fragmentation of habitats. In the face of these changes, a risk of irreversible damages to urban ecosystems is growing. That is why planning of solutions within the framework of Green Urbanism in metropolitan areas inhabited by over 55% of the global population is of extraordinary importance. The task of the paper is to present patterns of the Green Urbanism using selected examples of metropolitan areas as case studies. The main goal of the research is to make comparison between GU practices in different countries, in various spatial settings. The principles of triple zero framework: zero fossil-fuel energy use, zero waste, zero emissions (from low-to-no-carbon emissions) introduce not only the contemporary trends in theoretical urban planning but are dictated by practical considerations to create a healthy environment for a healthy society with a minimized environmental footprint. The research results help to identify Green Urbanism techniques used for multiple functions, including ecological, recreational, cultural, aesthetic and other uses and present opportunities for implementation of Green Urbanism solutions in metropolitan areas. To achieve healthier society and environment, highly congested and polluted cities have to be recreated through working with the existing landscape, topography and natural resources particular to the site.

  20. Public-private partnerships in urban regeneration projects: Organizational form or managerial capacity?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.B. Kort (Michiel); E-H. Klijn (Erik-Hans)

    2011-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Urban regeneration companies (URCs) are public-private entities appearing across Europe. They are created specifically to manage and implement more effectively urban regeneration projects. Core ideas behind the establishment of these newly emerging partnerships aim to

  1. A review of the possible future HEP Accelerator Projects

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2010-01-01

    The review, as already invited for presentation at the recent International Conference on High Energy Physics (ICHEP2010), covers all accelerator projects presently envisaged for HEP in the near and mid-term future. After a brief description of the major motivation, issues and necessary R&D of each project, it specially emphasizes the synergies between the different projects and their R&D issues, pointing out their complementarities and the efficient collaborative approach to address them. It finally summarizes the relative schedule of the various projects in their different phases, pointing out their global interdependence.

  2. Decision-Support System for Urban Air Pollution under Future Climate Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Jensen , Steen ,; Brandt , Jørgen; Hvidberg , Martin; Ketzel , Matthias; Hedegaard , Gitte ,; Christensen , Jens ,

    2011-01-01

    Part 6: Climate Services and Environmental Tools for Urban Planning and Climate Change Applications and Services; International audience; Climate change is expected to influence urban living conditions and challenge the ability of cities to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Urban climates will be faced with elevated temperatures and future climate conditions are expected to cause higher ozone concentrations, increased biogenic emissions from vegetation, changes in the chemistry of the atm...

  3. From Project to Program: Tupange's Experience with Scaling Up Family Planning Interventions in Urban Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyonzo, Nelson; Nyachae, Paul; Kagwe, Peter; Kilonzo, Margaret; Mumba, Feddis; Owino, Kenneth; Kichamu, George; Kigen, Bartilol; Fajans, Peter; Ghiron, Laura; Simmons, Ruth

    2015-05-01

    This paper describes how the Urban Reproductive Health Initiative in Kenya, the Tupange Project (2010-2015), successfully applied the ExpandNet approach to sustainably scale up family planning interventions, first in Machakos and Kakamega, and subsequently also in its three core cities, Nairobi, Kisumu and Mombasa. This new focus meant shifting from a "project" to a "program" approach, which required paying attention to government leadership and ownership, limiting external inputs, institutionalizing interventions in existing structures and emphasizing sustainability. The paper also highlights the project's efforts to prepare for the future scale up of Tupange's interventions in other counties to support continuing and improved access to family planning services in the new context of devolution (decentralization) in Kenya. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Large urban projects and social actors : Forces supporting and opposing the production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuenya, B.E.

    2006-01-01

    This research studies, by means of the analysis of a paradigmatic large urban project in Buenos Aires, the production process of a large urban project furthered by the State and directed to create a new centrality. The analysis is focused on the forces supporting and opposition the project that were

  5. The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China's future rural and urban populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart

    2017-01-01

    This paper estimates China's future population and labour force by developing a novel forecasting model for population. It combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas using information about rural-urban migration and the transformation

  6. Past successes and future challenges: Improving the urban environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gade, M.

    1994-12-31

    The author discusses issues related to the Chicago urban environment from her perspective in the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency. Understanding of the ozone air pollution problem in the Chicago area has undergone significant changes in the past three years, and there is still more to be understood about the complex factors which contribute to ozone pollution over urban areas such as Chicago. Ability to address these problems to present clean air standards is not in hand at present. The author asserts that information, and the ability of governmental agencies to ingest and respond to that information in a timely manner is a key to improvement of the environment in urban areas in reasonable time spans. In addition cost and price information on environmental control and protection needs to be more clearly presented to the people so they can understand the difficult choices which must be made in addressing these environmental problems.

  7. Past successes and future challenges: Improving the urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gade, M.

    1994-01-01

    The author discusses issues related to the Chicago urban environment from her perspective in the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency. Understanding of the ozone air pollution problem in the Chicago area has undergone significant changes in the past three years, and there is still more to be understood about the complex factors which contribute to ozone pollution over urban areas such as Chicago. Ability to address these problems to present clean air standards is not in hand at present. The author asserts that information, and the ability of governmental agencies to ingest and respond to that information in a timely manner is a key to improvement of the environment in urban areas in reasonable time spans. In addition cost and price information on environmental control and protection needs to be more clearly presented to the people so they can understand the difficult choices which must be made in addressing these environmental problems

  8. All-Inclusiveness versus Exclusion: Urban Project Development in Latin America and Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christien Klaufus

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper scrutinizes current processes of urban fragmentation, segregation, and exclusion that result from the increasing flows of capital in gated communities, walled-off condominiums, and similar exclusivist investment hubs in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. Gated community-like developments are growing and spreading into new areas. Although not all of the walled projects offer all-inclusiveness, they are unanimously based on the pre-selection of specific categories of residents. Moreover, all-inclusive urban developments are taking on new and more encompassing forms, such as ‘gated cities’. Hence, socio-spatial inclusion and exclusion in the urban built environment are continuously transforming under the influence of investment capital (i.e., new urban investment flows and speculation, urbanistic concepts (e.g., different interpretations of safety and crime, and human mobilities. This paper builds on a comparison of empirical cases from Latin America and Africa to develop a qualitative framework of segregation indicators. In Latin America, gated communities have a long history, but exclusionary developments are changing in form, as well as in implications. In Africa, research on gated communities has particularly focused on South Africa (where they have a longer history, but exclusionary developments are spreading rapidly across the continent, and will influence future real estate development and land markets. Based on such complementary experiences, this paper grapples with the question of how these new all-inclusive developments influence the possibilities of achieving inclusive and sustainable urban transitions, as advocated in Sustainable Development Goal 11 (SDG11 and the New Urban Agenda.

  9. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

  10. Current status of RCA projects and strategies for future implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyoung Pyo; Lee, Jeong Kong

    1998-12-01

    This report is intended to provide basic overall information about ways to promote technical cooperation within the framework of RCA to accelerate and coordinate cooperative activities in nuclear science and technology in Asia and the Pacific region through a thorough review on the current status and through suggesting future implementation strategies. The contents of this report include an overall introduction of RCA, guidelines and operating rules for RCA programmes, current status and future plans for RCA projects as well as the RCA vision for the next 25 years. By reviewing the current status and future implementation strategies for RCA projects, it will help to set up a national nuclear policy aimed at seeking maximum benefits from participation in RCA projects and to implement programmes for nuclear cooperation with Asian-Pacific countries. It is expected that as a lead country for the energy sector, which is one of five thematic areas for the year 1999 - 2000 cycle programmes, Korea will continue to make significant contributions towards the implementation of RCA programmes in the future. With this report, we plan to keep up with future developments as well as implement an effective cooperation with the countries in the region so that the opinion of Korea, one of the nuclear advanced countries in the region, can be fully reflected in the establishment of future plans for RCA programmes. (author). 3 refs., 5 tabs., 1 fig

  11. Urban Web Services—Experiences and Future Directions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank Allan; Grønbæk, Kaj

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses experiences from implementing a mobile urban Web system using 2D visual barcodes as physical link anchors in the city and utilizing the users’ own mobile phones as interaction devices. We discuss the techniques and technologies used to create the system and the implemented...

  12. Future electro-optical sensors and processing in urban operations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grönwall, C.; Schwering, P.B.; Rantakokko, J.; Benoist, K.W.; Kemp, R.A.W.; Steinvall, O.; Letalick, D.; Björkert, S.

    2013-01-01

    In the electro-optical sensors and processing in urban operations (ESUO) study we pave the way for the European Defence Agency (EDA) group of Electro-Optics experts (IAP03) for a common understanding of the optimal distribution of processing functions between the different platforms. Combinations of

  13. Cities Farming for the Future: Urban Agriculture for Green and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Urban agriculture is the growing of plants and the raising of animals for food and other uses, and related processing and marketing activities, within and around cities and towns. In the past few years, it has received increasing attention from development organizations and national and local authorities in developing ...

  14. India’s urban future: views from the slum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijman, J.

    2015-01-01

    About 32% of the Indian population presently resides in towns and cities, and national and state governments are intent on increasing that number. Based on the past experience of most of the developed world, urbanization is considered integral to modernization and progress. However, India’s

  15. Urban exports to the nonurban troposphere: Results from project MISTT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, W.H.; Patterson, D.E.; Wilson, W.E. Jr.

    1983-01-01

    An identifiable plume of contaminated air forms downwind of metropolitan St. Louis under certain conditions. The contribution of this urban plume to tropospheric ozone and aerosol loadings is calculated from concentration and wind fields measured during Project MISTT. On all three summer days selected for study, net ozone exports reached 2-3 x 10 6 g mol/h, or about 3/2 mole per mole of emitted nitrogen, within hours of emission. Conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfate aerosol was incomplete at the distances sampled: it is estimated that haze exports ultimately reached 500--600 km 2 /h, or 8--9 m 2 per gram of emitted sulfur. Simple extrapolation of the yields observed at St. Louis indicates that anthropogenic inputs overwhelm natural contributions to ozone and aerosols over eastern North America

  16. Projected future runoff of the Breede River under climate change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Breede River is the largest river in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, and as such, is a key resource for a variety of activities within the region. It is this significance of the river that prompted a study into the impact of climate change on future runoff in the river and hence, the potential impacts a projected change ...

  17. Understanding Resilient Urban Futures: A Systemic Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralph Chapman

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The resilience of cities in response to natural disasters and long-term climate change has emerged as a focus of academic and policy attention. In particular, how to understand the interconnectedness of urban and natural systems is a key issue. This paper introduces an urban model that can be used to evaluate city resilience outcomes under different policy scenarios. The model is the Wellington Integrated Land Use-Transport-Environment Model (WILUTE. It considers the city (i.e., Wellington as a complex system characterized by interactions between a variety of internal urban processes (social, economic and physical and the natural environment. It is focused on exploring the dynamic relations between human activities (the geographic distribution of housing and employment, infrastructure layout, traffic flows and energy consumption, environmental effects (carbon emissions, influences on local natural and ecological systems and potential natural disasters (e.g., inundation due to sea level rise and storm events faced under different policy scenarios. The model gives insights that are potentially useful for policy to enhance the city’s resilience, by modelling outcomes, such as the potential for reduction in transportation energy use, and changes in the vulnerability of the city’s housing stock and transport system to sea level rise.

  18. URBAN SPRAWL MODELING, AIR QUALITY MONITORING AND RISK COMMUNICATION: THE NORTHEAST OHIO PROJECT

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Northeast Ohio Urban Sprawl, Air Quality Monitoring, and Communications Project (hereafter called the Northeast Ohio Project) provides local environmental and health information useful to residents, local officials, community planners, and others in a 15 county region in the ...

  19. Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limanond, Thirayoot; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Srikaew, Artit

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: → Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. → The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. → The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

  20. The sustainable project management: A review and future possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.K. Chawla

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability in project operations such as financial, social and environmental sustainability is one of the most prominent issues of the present times to address. The increased focus on sus-tainable business operations has changed the viewpoint of researchers and corporate community towards the project management. Today sustainability in business operations along with sustain-ability of natural and environmental resources are of paramount significance which has further caused a huge impact on conception, planning, scheduling and execution of the project manage-ment activities. In this paper, a literature review between 1987 and 2018 on different issues af-fecting the sustainability in project management is carried out. The present study also identifies and discusses the future possibilities to apply computational procedures in order to estimate and optimize the sustainability issues in the management of projects, for example the computational evolutionary algorithms can be applied to formulate the multi-objective decision-making problem after considering critical factors of sustainability in the projects and then yielding optimized solu-tions for the formulated problem to achieve sustainability in the projects. A new integrated framework with the inclusion of feedback function for assessment of each decision and actions taken towards the sustainability of the projects is also identified and presented.

  1. Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Limanond, Thirayoot, E-mail: tlimanond@yahoo.co [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Srikaew, Artit [School of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)

    2011-05-15

    The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: {yields} Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. {yields} The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. {yields} The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

  2. The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast: A NOAA RISA Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast, or CCRUN, was funded in October 2010 under NOAA's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program to serve stakeholder needs in assessing and managing risks from climate variability and change. It is currently also the only RISA team with a principal focus on climate change adaptation in urban settings. While CCRUN's initial focus is on the major cities of the urban Northeast corridor (Philadelphia, New York and Boston), its work will ultimately expand to cover small and medium-sized cities in the relevant portions of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania as well, so that local needs for targeted climate-risk information can be served in a coordinated way. CCRUN is designed to address the complex challenges that are associated with densely populated, highly interconnected urban areas, including such as urban heat island effects; poor air quality; intense coastal development, and multifunctional settlement along inland waterways; complex overlapping institutional jurisdictions; integrated infrastructure systems; and highly diverse, and in some cases, fragile socio-economic communities. These challenges can best be addressed by the stakeholder-driven interdisciplinary approach taken by the CCRUN RISA team. As an important added benefit, the research accomplishments and lessons learned through stakeholder engagement will provide a foundation for managing climate risks in other urban areas in the United States. CCRUN's initial projects are focused in three broad sectors: Water, Coasts, and Health. Research in each of these sectors is linked through the cross-cutting themes of climate change and community vulnerability, the latter of which is especially important in considerations of environmental justice and equity. CCRUN's stakeholder-driven approach to research can therefore support investigations of the impacts of a changing climate, population growth, and

  3. IQ, the Urban Environment, and Their Impact on Future Schizophrenia Risk in Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toulopoulou, Timothea; Picchioni, Marco; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Petersen, Liselotte

    2017-09-01

    Exposure to an urban environment during early life and low IQ are 2 well-established risk factors for schizophrenia. It is not known, however, how these factors might relate to one another. Data were pooled from the North Jutland regional draft board IQ assessments and the Danish Conscription Registry for men born between 1955 and 1993. Excluding those who were followed up for less than 1 year after the assessment yielded a final cohort of 153170 men of whom 578 later developed a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. We found significant effects of having an urban birth, and also experiencing an increase in urbanicity before the age of 10 years, on adult schizophrenia risk. The effect of urban birth was independent of IQ. However, there was a significant interaction between childhood changes in urbanization in the first 10 years and IQ level on the future adult schizophrenia risk. In short, those subjects who moved to more or less urban areas before their 10th birthday lost the protective effect of IQ. When thinking about adult schizophrenia risk, the critical time window of childhood sensitivity to changes in urbanization seems to be linked to IQ. Given the prediction that by 2050, over 80% of the developed world's population will live in an urban environment, this represents a major future public health issue. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. From hygienism to taylorism: how the projects became the urban reality of medellín in 1870-1932

    OpenAIRE

    González Escobar, Luis Fernando

    2010-01-01

    The growth the city of Medellín in Colombia, has been explained by historians and researchers from the perspective of two urban projects: the first one, which was made of the colonial Indian dammar, and the second one –Haussmann’s project, coming from the second version of Plans of the Future Medellín City in the begining of the XX century. However, both projects are just myths and simplifications, similar to those studied of other cities in Latin America. Even if some aspects of the Haussman...

  5. Urban Planning for a Renewable Energy Future: Methodological Challenges and Opportunities from a Design Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandevijvere, H.; Stremke, S.

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning for a renewable energy future requires the collaboration of different disciplines both in research and practice. In the present article, the planning of a renewable energy future is approached from a designer’s perspective. A framework for analysis of the planning questions at hand is

  6. Medial Temporal Lobe Contributions to Episodic Future Thinking: Scene Construction or Future Projection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palombo, D J; Hayes, S M; Peterson, K M; Keane, M M; Verfaellie, M

    2018-02-01

    Previous research has shown that the medial temporal lobes (MTL) are more strongly engaged when individuals think about the future than about the present, leading to the suggestion that future projection drives MTL engagement. However, future thinking tasks often involve scene processing, leaving open the alternative possibility that scene-construction demands, rather than future projection, are responsible for the MTL differences observed in prior work. This study explores this alternative account. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we directly contrasted MTL activity in 1) high scene-construction and low scene-construction imagination conditions matched in future thinking demands and 2) future-oriented and present-oriented imagination conditions matched in scene-construction demands. Consistent with the alternative account, the MTL was more active for the high versus low scene-construction condition. By contrast, MTL differences were not observed when comparing the future versus present conditions. Moreover, the magnitude of MTL activation was associated with the extent to which participants imagined a scene but was not associated with the extent to which participants thought about the future. These findings help disambiguate which component processes of imagination specifically involve the MTL. Published by Oxford University Press 2016.

  7. Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

    2017-12-01

    Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas

  8. Private Sector-led Urban Development Projects : Management, Partnerships & Effects in the Netherlands and the UK

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heurkens, E.W.T.M.

    2012-01-01

    Subject of study is Private Sector-led Urban Development Projects. Such projects involve property developers taking a leading role and local authorities adopting a facilitating role in the management of the development of an urban area, based on a framework of public requirements and a formal

  9. EFFECTIVENESS OF LARGE WOODY DEBRIS IN STREAM REHABILITATION PROJECTS IN URBAN BASINS. (R825284)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban stream rehabilitation projects commonly include log placement to establish the types of habitat features associated with large woody debris (LWD) in undisturbed streams. Six urban in-stream rehabilitation projects were examined in the Puget Sound Lowland of western Washi...

  10. JPL Project Information Management: A Continuum Back to the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiz, Julie M.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the practices and architecture that support information management at JPL. This practice has allowed concurrent use and reuse of information by primary and secondary users. The use of this practice is illustrated in the evolution of the Mars Rovers from the Mars Pathfinder to the development of the Mars Science Laboratory. The recognition of the importance of information management during all phases of a project life cycle has resulted in the design of an information system that includes metadata, has reduced the risk of information loss through the use of an in-process appraisal, shaping of project's appreciation for capturing and managing the information on one project for re-use by future projects as a natural outgrowth of the process. This process has also assisted in connection of geographically disbursed partners into a team through sharing information, common tools and collaboration.

  11. Academic visibility for urban planning and the webometric future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanchez Thomas W.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The author focuses on the analysis problems of the main metrics of scientific productivity for the faculty in the USA universities specializing in the investigations and teaching in the field of urban planning. The increasing role of the Internet is highlighted in the process of communicating the ideas of planning scientists to the professionals and public, extending the reach of academic communications and possibilities of estimating the quality of the investigations and impact. Using case study the methods of applying webometrics for citation analysis in the Internet are investigated. The analysis focused on the main criteria: productivity, visibility, reputation, and impact. The article proposes an expanded approach for estimating general scientific popularity and impact of academics in the Internet, which includes publication analysis in frames of “gray literature”, teaching and outreach activity, which may also be a significant part of the scientific activity. The author stated the importance of academic visibility estimation both for promotion, improving competitiveness of a faculty member on the labor market in the sphere of educational services, and for urban planning schools’ development in general, raising their reputation, prestige and impact, getting the opportunities for financed researches, consolidating the positions on the global educational and science market.

  12. Physics Projects for a Future CERN-LNGS Neutrino Programme

    OpenAIRE

    Picchi, P.; Pietropaolo, F.

    1998-01-01

    We present an overview of the future projects concerning the neutrino oscillation physics in Europe. Recently a joint CERN-LNGS scientific committee has reviewed several proposals both for the study of atmospheric neutrinos and for long (LBL) and short baseline (SBL) neutrino oscillation experiments. The committee has indicated the priority that the European high energy physics community should follows in the field of neutrino physics, namely a new massive, atmospheric neutrino detector and a...

  13. Past, present, and future design of urban drainage systems with focus on Danish experiences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2011-01-01

    over time? Based on an analysis of the underlying key drivers of changes that are expected to affect urban drainage systems the current problems and their predicted development over time are presented. One key issue is management of risk and uncertainties and therefore a framework for design......Climate change will influence the water cycle substantially, and extreme precipitation will become more frequent in many regions in the years to come. How should this fact be incorporated into design of urban drainage systems, if at all? And how important is climate change compared to other changes...... and analysis of urban structures in light of present and future uncertainties is presented....

  14. Enhancing future resilience in urban drainage system: Green versus grey infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Xin; Guo, Hao; Zeng, Siyu

    2017-11-01

    In recent years, the concept transition from fail-safe to safe-to-fail makes the application of resilience analysis popular in urban drainage systems (UDSs) with various implications and quantifications. However, most existing definitions of UDSs resilience are confined to the severity of flooding, while uncertainties from climate change and urbanization are not considered. In this research, we take into account the functional variety, topological complexity, and disturbance randomness of UDSs and define a new formula of resilience based on three parts of system severity, i.e. social severity affected by urban flooding, environmental severity caused by sewer overflow, and technological severity considering the safe operation of downstream facilities. A case study in Kunming, China is designed to compare the effect of green and grey infrastructure strategies on the enhancement of system resilience together with their costs. Different system configurations with green roofs, permeable pavement and storage tanks are compared by scenario analysis with full consideration of future uncertainties induced by urbanization and climate change. The research contributes to the development of sustainability assessment of urban drainage system with consideration of the resilience of green and grey infrastructure under future change. Finding the response measures with high adaptation across a variety of future scenarios is crucial to establish sustainable urban drainage system in a long term. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Projections on the future of the natural uranium industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishido, Akio

    1995-01-01

    This discussion looks at the future of the uranium industry and considers what type of procurement policy should be adopted. Viewing the future as an extension of the present, it is possible that supplies of natural uranium will begin to run short around 2015. However, natural uranium will have more resources available than petroleum. If rising uranium prices reinvigorate exploration and lead to the discovery of new uranium deposits, future shortages will be unlikely. Nonetheless, with structural changes expected in the world economy, the nature of natural uranium transactions will no doubt change, thereby increasing the present element of uncertainty that much more. At the same time, the oligopolistic situation created by today's major producers will intensify. Based on these projections, the author has reassessed Japan's past procurement policy of government exploration/development support combined with private-sector uranium purchasing and finds this shared risk approach to be the best. (author)

  16. Self-defining future projections: exploring the identity function of thinking about the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Lardi, Claudia; Van der Linden, Martial

    2012-01-01

    The act of projecting oneself into meaningful future events may significantly contribute to a person's sense of self and identity. Yet if the role of memories, in particular self-defining memories (SDMs), in grounding the self is now well established, the identity function of anticipated future events has received comparatively little attention. This article introduces the construct of self-defining future projection (SDFP) to address this issue. Two studies show that people can readily identify significant future events that they frequently think about and that convey core information about who they are as individuals. Furthermore, a person's particular style of constructing SDMs is similarly manifested in SDFPs, suggesting that both types of events can be used to ground the self. Notably, people who display a stronger tendency to extract meaning from their past experiences also reflect more about the potential implications of imagined future events. The results further demonstrate that SDMs and SDFPs both give rise to a strong sense of personal continuity over time and are meaningfully related to self-esteem. Together these findings lend support to the idea that a person's sense of self and identity is in part nourished by the anticipation of significant future events.

  17. Delusional Cities: beyond the projected identity of urban space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruxandra Puşcaşu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Narratives intermediate the perception of place along with image, which is according to Burgin an integrated part of the “cultural promotion” and “city marketing” process (1996. In this manner, social and cultural meanings of place are re-modelled with relation to significant events or icons and, therefore, a more enchanting and attractive portrait of the city is promoted to be explored and experienced. Cities introduce a representation based on an idealised projection of their reality while exposing “key attractions”. As such, their projected image may have a greater influence than the reality in shaping the views of visitors, investors or even residents. The advertised portrait of the city has the power to reshape its appearance, as it is usually perceived, into a misleading one. Such chimera physiognomies of cities are often, if not in every case, presented in a captivating manner. This paper relies on the remarkable quality of narratives to go beyond the fabricated image of the city and to engage with the real identity of place while profiling the visual and experiential layout of the city. The investigation focus is primarily placed upon the mode in which historical and spatial humanities theoretical knowledge along with narratives of place can enrich the morphological study. The interaction between architecture, people, and narrative codes in the city spaces and on the way spatial layout relates to them is therefore explored. Particular emphasis is laid towards the manner in which spoken narratives of place can provide us with perceptual tools to shape the complexity of the urban phenomena and its cultural meaning. In doing so, we can start overlaying memories that are situated “beyond the city” and as such are brought to light and merged with maps of “lived experiences”.

  18. Can the Future EnMAP Mission Contribute to Urban Applications? A Literature Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Müller

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available With urban populations and their footprints growing globally, the need to assess the dynamics of the urban environment increases. Remote sensing is one approach that can analyze these developments quantitatively with respect to spatially and temporally large scale changes. With the 2015 launch of the spaceborne EnMAP mission, a new hyperspectral sensor with high signal-to-noise ratio at medium spatial resolution, and a 21 day global revisit capability will become available. This paper presents the results of a literature survey on existing applications and image analysis techniques in the context of urban remote sensing in order to identify and outline potential contributions of the future EnMAP mission. Regarding urban applications, four frequently addressed topics have been identified: urban development and planning, urban growth assessment, risk and vulnerability assessment and urban climate. The requirements of four application fields and associated image processing techniques used to retrieve desired parameters and create geo-information products have been reviewed. As a result, we identified promising research directions enabling the use of EnMAP for urban studies. First and foremost, research is required to analyze the spectral information content of an EnMAP pixel used to support material-based land cover mapping approaches. This information can subsequently be used to improve urban indicators, such as imperviousness. Second, we identified the global monitoring of urban areas as a promising field of investigation taking advantage of EnMAP’s spatial coverage and revisit capability. However, owing to the limitations of EnMAPs spatial resolution for urban applications, research should also focus on hyperspectral resolution enhancement to enable retrieving material information on sub-pixel level.

  19. Urban warming in Tokyo area and counterplan to improve future environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saitoh, T.S.; Hoshi, H.

    1993-01-01

    The rapid progress in industrialization and concentration of economic and social functions in urban areas has stimulated a consistent increase in population and energy consumption. The sudden urbanization in modern cities has caused environmental problems including alternation of the local climate. This is a phenomenon peculiar to the urban areas, and is characterized by a consistent rise in the temperature of the urban atmosphere, an increase in air pollutants, a decrease in relative humidity, and so on. The phenomenon characterized by a noticeable temperature rise in the urban atmosphere has been called the urban heat island and analyzed by both observational and numerical approaches. The numerical model can be classified into two ways: the mechanical model and energy balance model. Since Howard reported on the urban heat island in London, there have been a number of observational studies and numerical studies based on the two-dimensional modeling. Recently, three-dimensional studies have been reported simultaneously with great the advancement of the supercomputer. The present paper reports the results of the field observation by automobiles in the Tokyo metropolitan area and also the results of the three-dimensional simulation for urban warming in Tokyo at present and in the future around 2030. Further, the authors also present the results of a simulation for the effect of tree planting and vegetation

  20. Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Tang

    Full Text Available Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline

  1. Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hankey, Steve; Marshall, Julian D. [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States)

    2010-09-15

    Urban form - for example, sprawl versus infill development - impacts people's daily travel patterns and annual vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT). This paper explores how urban form impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger-vehicles, the largest source of urban transportation GHG emissions. Our research uses a recently published urban scaling rule to develop six scenarios for high- and low-sprawl US urban growth. We develop and apply a Monte Carlo approach that describes ensemble statistics for several dozen urban areas rather than forecasting changes in individual urban areas. Then, employing three vehicle- and fuel-technology scenarios, we estimate total passenger VKT and resulting GHG emissions for US urban areas. Our results indicate that comprehensive compact development could reduce US 2000-2020 cumulative emissions by up to 3.2 GtCO{sub 2}e (15-20% of projected cumulative emissions). In general, vehicle GHG mitigation may involve three types of approaches: more-efficient vehicles, lower-GHG fuels, and reduced VKT. Our analyses suggest that all three categories must be evaluated; otherwise, improvements in one or two areas (e.g., vehicle fuel economy, fuel carbon content) can be offset by backsliding in a third area (e.g., VKT growth). (author)

  2. Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hankey, Steve; Marshall, Julian D.

    2010-01-01

    Urban form - for example, sprawl versus infill development - impacts people's daily travel patterns and annual vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT). This paper explores how urban form impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger-vehicles, the largest source of urban transportation GHG emissions. Our research uses a recently published urban scaling rule to develop six scenarios for high- and low-sprawl US urban growth. We develop and apply a Monte Carlo approach that describes ensemble statistics for several dozen urban areas rather than forecasting changes in individual urban areas. Then, employing three vehicle- and fuel-technology scenarios, we estimate total passenger VKT and resulting GHG emissions for US urban areas. Our results indicate that comprehensive compact development could reduce US 2000-2020 cumulative emissions by up to 3.2 GtCO 2 e (15-20% of projected cumulative emissions). In general, vehicle GHG mitigation may involve three types of approaches: more-efficient vehicles, lower-GHG fuels, and reduced VKT. Our analyses suggest that all three categories must be evaluated; otherwise, improvements in one or two areas (e.g., vehicle fuel economy, fuel carbon content) can be offset by backsliding in a third area (e.g., VKT growth).

  3. Urban Environmental Education Project, Curriculum Module III: Urban Transportation - Where Are We Going?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Ellen

    Included in this module are five activities dealing with modes of transportation in the urban environment. The activities include: (1) a discussion of transportation considerations in urban areas; (2) discussion of bikeways and their desirability in the urban environment; (3) the bikeway and the environment; (4) designing a bikeway; and (5)…

  4. Urban Agriculture in Thessaloniki. An academic project meets reality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleftheria Gavrilidou

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Nearly all projects with Urban Agriculture (UA impact in Western Europe, in the USA, and in the Developing World are started and thought by single initiatives. In so-called “bottom-up” processes of small scale, they gain energy and power by a fast and none formalized implementation. A master studio project at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, “Red and Green”, presents in contrast a proposal for a huge inner city area with focus on UA as generator for a socio-economic transformation towards a green economy based on social community spirit, considering in particular the crisis situation in Greece. The approach which combines the idea of integrating both top-down and bottom-up forces, attempts an integration of permanent and temporarily elements, and by this, the master plan searches qualities as an innovative planning tool. After a phase of intensive dissemination and evaluation on international level with encouraging attentiveness and recognition, a strategy for a realization in steps was created by KIPOS3, a start-up initiative organized by a group of master students to bring in the city of Thessaloniki the concept a common garden manageable by the residents under also the Municipality stewardship. A widespread network of small fallow islands in the city of Thessaloniki was detected and in a process of “mapping the city” several lots were analyzed referring for good chances of implementation. The description of the long way of discussions with landowners, the municipality and potentially users, the difficulties and obstacles, documents once more the initiators strong will and immense energy, which is necessary for a successful start-up. With financial support of a Greek Fellowship a first garden was created in 2015. The history of KIPOS3 garden in Thessaloniki consists finally a useful lesson on the role of “foodscape” on the reactivation of inactive institutions and communities, a lesson of resilience in a city of deep

  5. Interhemispheric Temperature Asymmetry in Historical Observations and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, A. R.; Hwang, Y.; Chiang, J. C.; Frierson, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    The surface temperature contrast between the northern and southern hemispheres -- the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) -- is an emerging indicator of global climate change, especially relevant to the latitude of the tropical rain bands. We investigate the ITA over historical observations and in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations and future projections. We find that the uneven spatial impacts of greenhouse gas forcing cause amplified warming in the Arctic and northern landmasses, resulting in an increase of the ITA. However, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, which are disproportionately emitted in the northern hemisphere, masked these effects on the ITA until around 1980. The implementation of air pollution regulations in North America and Europe combined with increased global emissions of greenhouse gases have resulted in a significant positive ITA trend since 1980. The CMIP5 historical multimodel ensembles simulate this positive ITA trend, though not its full magnitude. We explore how natural variability may account for some of the differences between the simulated and observed ITA. Future simulations project a substantial increase of the ITA over the twenty-first century, well outside its twentieth-century variability. This is largely in response to continued greenhouse gas emissions, though anthropogenic aerosol emissions are also important in some scenarios. We discuss the potential implications of this northern warming in causing a northward shift in tropical rainfall.

  6. Future scenarios of urbanization and its effects on water quantity and quality in three New England watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutyra, L.; Yang, Y.; Kim, J.; Cheng, C.; O'Brien, P.; Rouhani, S.; Douglas, E. M.; Nicolson, C.; Ryan, R.; Schaaf, C.; Warren, P.; Wollheim, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    New England watersheds have been impacted by human development and environmental stressors that are similar to those projected to impact large portions of the United States and the world. These impacts are likely to continue as some parts of the region are projected to lose over 60% of private forestland to development by 2030. Such dramatic changes have important consequences for water quality and quantity. Because of the complex and varied interactions between human and natural systems, simply understanding the processes affecting current and historical conditions in urbanizing watersheds is inadequate to model the future. Understanding future hydrologic conditions is made more difficult because of the uncertainties inherent in projecting future climate conditions. One approach to handling this complexity is to use scenarios to explore a range of potential futures following contrasting trajectories of change. Here we describe how four scenarios of land use change were developed using a stakeholder driven process. We then began using the scenarios in hydrological models to estimate future changes in water quality and quantity. The study area includes three watersheds (the Charles, Neponset and Ipswich) that have undergone varying degrees of urbanization in the greater Boston area of Massachusetts in the northeastern United States. The Charles and Neponset River watersheds are densely populated and include the city of Boston itself. Municipal water supplies in these two watersheds are mostly from the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sources in western Massachusetts. The Ipswich River watershed is highly suburban, and communities are largely dependent on local water supplies. If the historical urbanization trends continue, the impervious area in the Charles River watershed is projected to increase by 13%, 16% in Neponset River watershed, and 24% in Ipswich River watershed by 2030. For the Charles River watershed, analyses identified hot spots for

  7. "Something good can grow here": chicago urban agriculture food projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatchett, Lena; Brown, Loretta; Hopkins, Joan; Larsen, Kelly; Fournier, Eliza

    2015-01-01

    Food security is a challenge facing many African-American low-income communities nationally. Community and university partners have established urban agriculture programs to improve access to high quality affordable fruits and vegetables by growing, distributing, and selling food in urban neighborhoods. While the challenge of food security is within communities of color, few studies have described these urban agriculture programs and documented their impact on the crew members who work in the programs and live in the low-income communities. More information is needed on the program impact for crew and community health promotion. Using a survey and focus group discussion from the crew and staff we describe the program and activities of four Chicago Urban Agriculture programs. We summarized the impact these programs have on crew members' perception of urban agriculture, health habits, community engagement, and community health promotion in low-income African-American neighborhoods.

  8. Preemptive Architecture: Explosive Art and Future Architectures in Cursed Urban Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahl Stenslie

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the art and architectural research project Preemptive Architecture that uses artistic strategies and approaches to create bomb-ready architectural structures that act as instruments for the undoing of violence in war. Increasing environmental usability through destruction represents an inverse strategy that reverses common thinking patterns about warfare, art and architecture. Building structures predestined for a construc­tive destruction becomes a creative act. One of the main motivations behind this paper is to challenge and expand the material thinking as well as the socio-political conditions related to artistic, architectural and design based practices.   Article received: December 12, 2016; Article accepted: January 10, 2017; Published online: April 20, 2017 Original scholarly paper How to cite this article: Stenslie, Stahl, and Magne Wiggen. "Preemptive Architecture: Explosive Art and Future Architectures in Cursed Urban Zones." AM Journal of Art and Media Studies 12 (2017: 29-39. doi: 10.25038/am.v0i12.165

  9. Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

    2018-03-01

    Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

  10. Urban Growth Dynamics in Perth, Western Australia: Using Applied Remote Sensing for Sustainable Future Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew MacLachlan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Earth observation data can provide valuable assessments for monitoring the spatial extent of (unsustainable urban growth of the world’s cities to better inform planning policy in reducing associated economic, social and environmental costs. Western Australia has witnessed rapid economic expansion since the turn of the century founded upon extensive natural resource extraction. Thus, Perth, the state capital of Western Australia, has encountered significant population and urban growth in response to the booming state economy. However, the recent economic slowdown resulted in the largest decrease in natural resource values that Western Australia has ever experienced. Here, we present multi-temporal urban expansion statistics from 1990 to 2015 for Perth, derived from Landsat imagery. Current urban estimates used for future development plans and progress monitoring of infill and density targets are based upon aggregated census data and metrics unrepresentative of actual land cover change, underestimating overall urban area. Earth observation provides a temporally consistent methodology, identifying areal urban area at higher spatial and temporal resolution than current estimates. Our results indicate that the spatial extent of the Perth Metropolitan Region has increased 45% between 1990 and 2015, over 320 km2. We highlight the applicability of earth observation data in accurately quantifying urban area for sustainable targeted planning practices.

  11. Future projects of light kaonic atom X-ray spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsuno, H.; Bazzi, M.; Beer, G.; Bellotti, G.; Berucci, C.; Bragadireanu, A.M.; Bosnar, D.; Cargnelli, M.; Curceanu, C.; Butt, A.D.; D’Uffizi, A.; Fiorini, C.; Ghio, F.; Guaraldo, C.; Hayano, R.S.; Iliescu, M.; Ishiwatari, T.; Iwasaki, M.; Sandri, P. Levi; Marton, J.; Okada, S.; Pietreanu, D.; Piscicchia, K.; Vidal, A. Romero; Sbardella, E.; Scordo, A.; Shi, H.; Sirghi, D.L.; Sirghi, F.; Doce, O. Vazquez; Widmann, E.; Zmeskal, J.

    2016-01-01

    X-ray spectroscopy of light kaonic atoms is a unique tool to provide precise information on the fundamental K̄N interaction at the low-energy limit and the in-medium nuclear interaction of K"−. The future experiments of kaonic deuterium strong-interaction shift and width (SIDDHARTA-2 and J-PARC E57) can extract the isospin dependent K"−N interaction at threshold. The high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy of kaonic helium with microcalorimeters (J-PARC E62) has the possibility to solve the long-standing potential-strength problem of the attractive K"−-nucleus interaction. Here, the recent experimental results and the future projects of X-ray spectroscopy of light kaonic atoms are presented.

  12. Projection displays and MEMS: timely convergence for a bright future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornbeck, Larry J.

    1995-09-01

    Projection displays and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) have evolved independently, occasionally crossing paths as early as the 1950s. But the commercially viable use of MEMS for projection displays has been illusive until the recent invention of Texas Instruments Digital Light Processing TM (DLP) technology. DLP technology is based on the Digital Micromirror DeviceTM (DMD) microchip, a MEMS technology that is a semiconductor digital light switch that precisely controls a light source for projection display and hardcopy applications. DLP technology provides a unique business opportunity because of the timely convergence of market needs and technology advances. The world is rapidly moving to an all- digital communications and entertainment infrastructure. In the near future, most of the technologies necessary for this infrastrucutre will be available at the right performance and price levels. This will make commercially viable an all-digital chain (capture, compression, transmission, reception decompression, hearing, and viewing). Unfortunately, the digital images received today must be translated into analog signals for viewing on today's televisions. Digital video is the final link in the all-digital infrastructure and DLP technoogy provides that link. DLP technology is an enabler for digital, high-resolution, color projection displays that have high contrast, are bright, seamless, and have the accuracy of color and grayscale that can be achieved only by digital control. This paper contains an introduction to DMD and DLP technology, including the historical context from which to view their developemnt. The architecture, projection operation, and fabrication are presented. Finally, the paper includes an update about current DMD business opportunities in projection displays and hardcopy.

  13. Aligning BIM with FM: streamlining the process for future projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colleen Kasprzak

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A study performed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST, USA in 2004 found that owners account for approximately $10.6 billion of the $15.8 billion total inadequate interoperability costs of U.S. capital facility projects in 2002. Because of these inefficiency costs, it becomes vital that information produced during the design and construction phases of a project be transferred into operations with maximum leverage to the end users. However, very few owners have defined these informational needs or developed an integration strategy into existing maintenance management systems. To increase operational efficiency, an organization must first develop an understanding of their operating systems, as well as identify how Building Information Modeling (BIM will add value to their daily tasks. The Pennsylvania State University (PSU has a unique opportunity to diversely implement BIM processes because not only does the University act as an owner, but also as designer and construction manager on the majority of projects. The struggle that PSU faces is one that is unique only to owners with a large, existing, multifaceted building inventory. This paper outlines the current initiative by the Office of Physical Plant (OPP, the asset manager at PSU, to develop an information exchange framework between BIM and FM applications to be used internally. As a result of this research, PSU has been able to define owner operational requirements for future projects and develop a flexible integration framework to support additional BIM tasks and information exchanges.

  14. Urban High School Student Engagement through CincySTEM iTEST Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckett, Gulbahar H.; Hemmings, Annette; Maltbie, Catherine; Wright, Kathy; Sherman, Melissa; Sersion, Brian

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on the notable heightening of underrepresented students' engagement in STEM education through project-based learning CincySTEM iTEST projects. The projects, funded by an iTEST NSF grant, were designed and facilitated by teachers at a new STEM urban public high school serving low-income African-American students. Student…

  15. The potential role of waste biomass in the future urban electricity system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, Yu; Werf, van der Edwin; Ierland, van Ekko C.; Keesman, Karel J.

    2017-01-01

    The share of intermittent renewable electricity (IRE) in the future urban electricity system is expected to increase significantly. Sufficient back-up capacity is needed in the period when IRE output is low. Bioenergy is both dispatchable and carbon-neutral, and can hence be a promising option to

  16. Social Capital: Similarities and Differences between Future Educators and Urban Youth Leaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearrow, Melissa M.; Zoino-Jeannetti, Julia; Minami, Takuya

    2016-01-01

    This study examines differences in social capital between two demographically disparate groups: future education professionals and youth leaders living in urban communities. This is important because there is growing scholarly evidence of a positive relationship between social capital and student achievement. "Social capital," defined as…

  17. Future trends in urbanization and coastal water pollution in the Bay of Bengal: the lived experience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zinia, N.J.; Kroeze, C.

    2015-01-01

    The Bay of Bengal includes coastal seas of several countries, including Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar. We present scenarios for future river export of eutrophying nutrients into the Bay of Bengal, and the role of urbanization therein. We used NEWS (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model to analyze

  18. Institutional conditions for sustainable private sector-led urban development projects : A conceptual model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heurkens, E.W.T.M.

    2016-01-01

    Across the globe sustainable private sector-led urban development projects (SPUDPs) in the built environment rarely commence as real estate developers face several institutional barriers which limit their capacity to develop economic-viable, social-responsible, environmental-friendly urban places.

  19. Space Projects: Improvements Needed in Selecting Future Projects for Private Financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and NASA jointly selected seven projects for commercialization to reduce NASA's fiscal year 1990 budget request and to help achieve the goal of increasing private sector involvement in space. However, the efforts to privately finance these seven projects did not increase the commercial sector's involvement in space to the extent desired. The General Accounting Office (GAO) determined that the projects selected were not a fair test of the potential of increasing commercial investment in space at an acceptable cost to the government, primarily because the projects were not properly screened. That is, neither their suitability for commercialization nor the economic consequences of seeking private financing for them were adequately evaluated before selection. Evaluations and market tests done after selection showed that most of the projects were not viable candidates for private financing. GAO concluded that projects should not be removed from NASA's budget for commercial development until after careful screening has been done to determine whether adequate commercial demand exists, development risks are commercially acceptable and private financing is found or judged to be highly likely, and the cost effectiveness of such a decision is acceptable. Premature removal of projects from NASA's budget ultimately can cause project delays and increased costs when unsuccessful commercialization candidates must be returned to the budget. NASA also needs to ensure appropriate comparisons of government and private financing options for future commercialization projects.

  20. Towards Adaptive Urban Water Management: Up-Scaling Local Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Quitzau, Maj-Britt; Hoffmann, Birgitte

    2013-01-01

    Increasingly, the need for adaptive urban water management approaches is advertised, but the transition towards such approaches in the urban water sector seems to be slow. The purpose of this paper is to provide an in-depth study of how an innovative approach has been adopted in practice by looking...... of rainwater. This insight into the processes of learning aggregation of water practices points towards the important role that the dedicated work performed by local facilitators and intermediaries play in relation to a transition towards more adaptive urban water management....

  1. Negotiation processes in urban redevelopment projects: dealing with conflicts by balancing integrative and distributive approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baarveld, Marlijn; Smit, Marnix; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2015-01-01

    Dealing with conflict through dialogue receives considerable attention in current planning approaches. However, debate and negotiation are also inevitable features in the planning of urban redevelopment projects. Insight into the negotiation process contributes to current planning practice as

  2. Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1): Coastlines

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) consists of estimates of human population for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000 by 30 arc-second (1km) grid...

  3. Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico

    2017-04-01

    Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat

  4. Brand Awareness Strategy for Fashion Urban Youth Local Brand "Pinx Project"

    OpenAIRE

    Insania, Rima; Mutiaz, Intan Rizky

    2013-01-01

    Indonesian young designers have a very strong potential to explore the International level with the achievements that gradually starts to open the eyes of the global fashion world.urban youth local label movement which spreading in 5 years, glance Indonesia fashion industry. One of the is Pinx Project. Pinx Project, found in late November 2011, grew along with urban youth fashion which was booming among young people and many other emerging fashion lines. Pinx, which can still be considered as...

  5. Multi-actor decision making using mixed reality technologies Urban projects and multi-actor collaboration

    OpenAIRE

    Basile,, Maria; Ozdirlik, Burcu; Terrin,, Jean-Jacques

    2009-01-01

    International audience; This paper is based on the results of an ongoing research project, IPCity, on the application of mixed reality technologies in urban environments. It questions the relevance of traditional language and communication medium such as drawings, perspectives and 3D models in the co-production of urban projects in multi-actor working environments. It then discusses the possible use of “mixed reality technologies” as alternative medium through five workshops organised within ...

  6. A brief history and the possible future of urban energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutter, Paul; Keirstead, James

    2012-01-01

    Modern cities depend on energy systems to deliver a range of services such as heating, cooling, lighting, mobility, communications, and so on. This article examines how these urban energy systems came to be, tracing the major transitions from the earliest settlements through to today's fossil-fuelled cities. The underlying theme is “increasing efficiency under constraints” with each transition marked by increasing energy efficiency in service provision, increasing per capita energy use, increasing complexity in the energy system's structure, with innovations driven by a strategic view of the overall system, and accompanied by wider changes in technology and society. In developed countries, the future of urban energy systems is likely to continue many of these trends, with increased efficiency being driven by the constraints of climate change and rising fuel prices. Both supply and demand side technologies are discussed as potential solutions to these issues, with different impacts on the urban environment and its citizens. However in developing countries, rising urban populations and access to basic energy services will drive the next transition. - Highlights: ► Urban energy system transitions in history are reviewed. ► Common features include increased per capita energy use, growing system complexity, and technological innovation. ► Future transitions will be shaped by the constraints of climate change, rising fuel prices, and urbanisation. ► Long-term sustainability depends on ability to innovate rapidly; opportunities exist on supply and demand sides.

  7. Chinese villages and their sustainable future: the European Union-China-Research Project "SUCCESS".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumreicher, Heidi

    2008-04-01

    China has 800,000 villages-one person out of seven on the globe is living in a Chinese rural settlement. Yet the global discussions about the situation in China is currently characterised by a disproportionate focus on the development of towns and until now circumstances have generally been neglected in the rural areas, where 70% of the Chinese population is still living. Within the 5 years of the SUCCESS project research, this set of actual problems has been considered and analysed under the principle of sustainability: "What to maintain?" "What to change?" were the overall research questions asked in the SUCCESS project; the researchers were looking for answers under a sustainability regime, respecting the need to raise the quality of life in the villages. Several interweaving processes were used to achieve results: the inter-disciplinary research process between many areas of expertise, the trans-disciplinary process between the researchers and the Chinese villagers, and a negotiation process that made the connection between these two processes. The introduction describes the basic sustainability definition that was orienting the whole study. The innovation lays mostly in the methodology: the inter-disciplinary research co-operation related to practice and to involving the affected communities is needed to manage the significant and growing imbalances between urban and rural areas regarding their sustainability. In the transdisciplinary work, the project developed "village future sentences" that describe the local outcome of the research as one step towards better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms that could lead to a sustainable future, and they also managed to start sustainability processes in the case study sites. The integrated approach of the project helped generating future scenarios for these villages covering all aspects of their development, including urban design issues. Out of these scenarios, the villages developed small projects that could

  8. Three solar urban futures: characterization of a future community under three energy-supply scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milne, M; Adelson, M; Corwin, R

    1979-10-01

    This study examines a hypothetical city of 100,000 people in the year 2025 based on three initially given energy-supply scenarios: Future 1 specifying approximately 6% of the city's demand being met by solar technologies; Future 2 specifying about 25%; and Future 3 seeking maximum use of solar technologies. These three versions of the hypothetical city are to be identical in terms of population, goods and services produced, and energy demand. Their differences are compared in terms of physical layout, environmental quality, socio-economics, and quality of life. It is concluded that in Future 1 and Future 2, the city's residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can easily meet the on-site energy-collection requirements of the given supply scenarios. In Future 3, the Solar City, the residential sector can be totally energy self-sufficient (collecting all needed energy on-site), and the commercial sector can collect 59.7% of its energy requirement. Passive design of buildings plays a large part in these results. The industrial sector can collect on-site only 18.2% of its energy needs. In what is called Future 3A, all three sectors of the hypothetical city can be 100% energy self-sufficient if the land area available for various types of solar collectors is increased 34.5%; the commercial sector needs 650 additional acres, while the industrial sector needs 2800 acres, provided that moderate temperature energy (250/sup 0/F to 600/sup 0/F) is adequate to meet industrial process needs.

  9. Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

  10. Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Zhou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China. Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID, driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5. The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing

  11. Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

    2018-01-01

    As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has

  12. Impacts of compact growth and electric vehicles on future air quality and urban exposures may be mixed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Haofei; Stuart, Amy L

    2017-01-15

    'Smart' growth and electric vehicles are potential solutions to the negative impacts of worldwide urbanization on air pollution and health. However, the effects of planning strategies on distinct types of pollutants, and on human exposures, remain understudied. The goal of this work was to investigate the potential impacts of alternative urban designs for the area around Tampa, Florida USA, on emissions, ambient concentrations, and exposures to oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. We studied three potential future scenarios: sprawling growth, compact growth, and 100% vehicle fleet electrification with compact growth. We projected emissions in the seven-county region to 2050 based on One Bay regional visioning plan data. We estimated pollutant concentrations in the county that contains Tampa using the CALPUFF dispersion model. We applied residential population projections to forecast acute (highest hour) and chronic (annual average) exposure. The compact scenario was projected to result in lower regional emissions of all pollutants than sprawl, with differences of -18%, -3%, and -14% for NO x , butadiene, and benzene, respectively. Within Hillsborough County, the compact form also had lower emissions, concentrations, and exposures than sprawl for NO x (-16%/-5% for acute/chronic exposures, respectively), but higher exposures for butadiene (+41%/+30%) and benzene (+21%/+9%). The addition of complete vehicle fleet electrification to the compact scenario mitigated these in-county increases for the latter pollutants, lowering predicted exposures to butadiene (-25%/-39%) and benzene (-5%/-19%), but also resulted in higher exposures to NO x (+81%/+30%) due to increased demand on power plants. These results suggest that compact forms may have mixed impacts on exposures and health. 'Smart' urban designs should consider multiple pollutants and the diverse mix of pollutant sources. Cleaner power generation will also likely be needed to support aggressive

  13. Urban Extension–Reflections on the Past–A Look to the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A. Young

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The Cooperative Extension Service (Extension has built an outstanding reputation by serving clientele in rural areas. The organization’s credibility in the past has rested solidly on those stakeholders who have advocated for Extension’s continued existence due to its success in helping rural communities move beyond societal ills. With the rapid expansion of urban America, Extension’s potential for growth is tremendous—if the organization can adapt to meet the needs of metropolitan communities. This article features highlights of the successes and barriers presented by previous studies and makes suggestions on what can be done to move the urban Extension agenda forward. The authors share results of a case study in Kentucky in hopes of offering current and future recommendations for the many Extension systems across the country challenged with being as relevant a resource to urban areas as the organization is to its rural counterparts.

  14. Onshore wind energy potential over Iberia: present and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochinha, Carlos A.; Santos, João A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Onshore grid-connected wind power generation has been explored for more than three decades in the Iberian Peninsula. Further, increasing attention has been devoted to renewable energy sources in a climate change context. While advantages of wind energy are widely recognized, its distribution is not spatially homogeneous and not uniform throughout the year. Hence, understanding these spatial-temporal distributions is critical in power system planning. The present study aims at assessing the potential power output estimated from 10 m wind components simulated by a regional climate model (CCLM), driven by ERA40 reanalysis. Datasets are available on a grid with a high spatial resolution (approximately 20 km) and over a 40-yr period (1961-2000). Furthermore, several target sites, located in areas with high installed wind generation capacity, are selected for local-to-regional scale assessments. The results show that potential wind power is higher over northern Iberia, mostly in Cantabria and Galicia, while Andalucía and Cataluña record the lowest values. With respect to the intra-annual variability, summer is by far the season with the lowest potential energy outputs. Furthermore, the inter-annual variability reveals an overall downward long-term trend over the 40-yr period, particularly in the winter time series. A CCLM transient experiment, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario, is also discussed for a future period (2041-2070), after a model validation/calibration process (bias corrections). Significant changes in the wind power potential are projected for the future throughout Iberia, but their magnitude largely depends on the locations. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  15. Fostering Radical Collaboration: The OCUL Collaborative Futures Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anika Ervin-Ward

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper was first given as a poster presentation at the Ontario Library Association Super Conference in 2016. Building on decades of successful cooperative work, the Ontario Council of University Libraries (OCUL Collaborative Futures project aims to select and implement a shared next-generation library services platform (LSP, to manage and preserve print resources in a sustainable system, and to effectively and efficiently use a shared system for the management of electronic and print resources. Phase One of this project was completed in Summer 2015. This is its story. Cet article a été présenté pour la première fois comme une présentation d’affiches à la Super Conference de l’Association des bibliothèques de l’Ontario en 2016. Basant sur des décennies de collaboration réussie, le projet Collaborative Futures du Conseil des bibliothèques universitaires de l’Ontario vise à sélectionner et à mettre en oeuvre une plate-forme des services de bibliothèque de dernière génération, à gérer et à préserver des ressources imprimées dans un système viable, et à utiliser efficacement un système partagé pour la gestion des ressources imprimées et numériques. La première phase de ce projet a été complétée pendant l’été 2015. Ceci est son histoire.

  16. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  17. The Midwifery Legacies Project: history, progress, and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore-Davis, Tonia L; McGee, Karen B; Moore, Elaine M; Paine, Lisa L

    2015-01-01

    The Midwifery Legacies Project, formerly known as the OnGoing Group, was founded as an annual greeting card outreach aimed at maintaining contact with midwives as they approached retirement and beyond. In 2009, the importance of documenting personal and professional stories of midwives arose out of a bequest by a midwife who was relatively unknown outside of the community she served. The result has been the evolution of a robust collection of stories, which are known as the 20th Century Midwife Story Collection. Between 2009 and 2014, more than 120 US midwives aged 65 years or older were interviewed by a midwife, a student midwife, or a professional filmmaker. Collectively, these midwives' stories offer an intimate snapshot of the social, political, and cultural influences that have shaped US midwifery during the past half century. Individually, the stories honor and recognize midwives' contributions to the profession and the women they have served. This article details the development, progress, and future directions of the Midwifery Legacies Project. © 2015 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

  18. Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce: Current status, concerns and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morinville, Véronique; Drouin, Éric; Lévesque, Dominique; Espinosa, Victor M; Jacobson, Kevan

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: There is concern that the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce is inadequate to meet health care demands of the pediatric population. The Canadian Association of Gastroenterology Pediatric Committee performed a survey to determine characteristics and future plans of the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce and trainees. METHODS: Estimates of total and pediatric populations were obtained from the 2001 Census of Population, Statistics Canada (with estimates to July 1, 2005). Data on Canadian pediatric gastroenterologists, including clinical full-time equivalents, sex, work interests, opinions on workforce adequacy, retirement plans, fellowship training programs and future employment plans of fellows, were gathered through e-mail surveys and telephone correspondence in 2005 and 2006. RESULTS: Canada had an estimated population of 32,270,507 in 2005 (6,967,853 people aged zero to 17 years). The pediatric gastroenterology workforce was estimated at 9.2 specialists per million children. Women accounted for 50% of the workforce. Physician to pediatric population ratios varied, with Alberta demonstrating the highest and Saskatchewan the lowest ratios (1:69,404 versus 1:240,950, respectively). Between 1998 and 2005, Canadian pediatric gastroenterology fellowship programs trained 65 fellows (65% international trainees). Twenty-two fellows (34%) entered the Canadian workforce. CONCLUSIONS: The survey highlights the variable and overall low numbers of pediatric gastroenterologists across Canada, an increasingly female workforce, a greater percentage of part-time physicians and a small cohort of Canadian trainees. In conjunction with high projected retirement rates, greater demands on the work-force and desires to partake in nonclinical activities, there is concern for an increasing shortage of pediatric gastroenterologists in Canada in future years. PMID:17948136

  19. Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Cheryl A; Dunne, John P; Eakin, C Mark; Donner, Simon D

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and

  20. Strategic Planning & Urban Projects : Responses to Globalization from 15 cities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmona, M.; Burgess, R.

    2001-01-01

    This book draws upon the ongoing research activities of agiobal network of urban researchers - the IBIS network. The IBIS network is a European Community funded network of four European universities and South American universities. The network involves postgraduate student exchanges and the

  1. A Cross-Curricular, Problem-Based Project to Promote Understanding of Poverty in Urban Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Daniel S.; Tuchman, Ellen; Hawkins, Robert

    2010-01-01

    This article describes the use of problem-based learning to teach students about the scope and consequences of urban poverty through an innovative cross-curricular project. We illustrate the process, goals, and tasks of the Community Assessment Project, which incorporates community-level assessment, collection and analysis of public data, and…

  2. Problem Solution Project: Transforming Curriculum and Empowering Urban Students and Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarrett, Olga S.; Stenhouse, Vera

    2011-01-01

    This article presents findings of 6 years of implementing a Problem Solution Project, an assignment influenced by service learning, problem-based learning, critical theory, and critical pedagogy whereby teachers help children tackle real problems. Projects of 135 teachers in an urban certification/master's program were summarized by cohort year…

  3. Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

  4. Urban-Dome GHG Monitoring: Challenges and Perspectives from the INFLUX Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whetstone, J.; Shepson, P. B.; Davis, K. J.; Sweeney, C.; Gurney, K. R.; Miles, N. L.; Richardson, S.; Lauvaux, T.; Razlivanov, I.; Zhou, Y.; Song, Y.; Turnbull, J. C.; Karion, A.; Cambaliza, M. L.; Callahan, W.; Novakovskaia, E.; Crosson, E.; Rella, C.; Possolo, A.

    2012-04-01

    Quantification of carbon dynamics in urban areas using advanced and diverse observing systems enables the development of measurable, reportable, and verifiable (MRV) mitigation strategies as suggested in the Bali Action Plan, agreed upon at the 13th Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC (COP 13, 2007). The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), supports the Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX). INFLUX is focused on demonstrating the utility of dense, surface-based observing networks coupled with aircraft-based measurements, advanced atmospheric boundary layer observation and modeling to determine GHG emission source location and strength in urban areas. The ability to correctly model transport and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), responsible for carrying GHGs from their source to the point of measurement, is essential. The observing system design, using multiple instruments and observing methods, is intended to provide multi-scale measurements as a basis for mimicking the complex and evolving dynamics of a city. To better understand such a dynamic system, and incorporate this into models, reliable representations of horizontal and vertical transport, as well as ABL height, GHG mixing ratio measurements are planned for 11 tower locations, 2 are currently in operation with the remaining 9 planned for operational status in early to mid-2012. These observations are complimented by aircraft flights that measure mixing ratio as well as ABL parameters. Although measurements of ABL mixing heights and dynamics are presently only available intermittently, limiting efforts to evaluate ABL model performance and the uncertainties of GHG flux estimates, expansion of them is planned for the near future. INFLUX will significantly benefit from continuous, high resolution measurements of mixing depth, wind speed and direction, turbulence profiles in the boundary layer, as well as measurements of surface energy balance, momentum flux, and short and

  5. Gentrification, Displacement and New Urbanism: The Next Racial Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivia Hetzler

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Cities today are trying to reinvent themselves using buzzwords like the New Urbanism. New Urbanist policies have generated more positive economic outcomes for cities than past gentrification policies have ever been able to accomplish by focusing on the "best and highest use." However, the consequences of this policy on the resident (and frequently minority populations have barely received attention. This inattention is not accidental since the conservative vocabulary hides racial issues behind new terminology.

  6. IU.R Residential Urban Interfaces. Strategies and tools for a renewal project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Borgianni

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In the contemporary city, quality of urban space is a key element in life quality and a driving force for the competitiveness. The increasing complexity of relationships and the evolving needs and use patterns reflect urban complexity in a corresponding physical space: the urban interface, an entity that mediates the sociospatial relationships between public and private sphere and that assumes strategic importance in redevelopment of suburbs. Research, carried out on a case ‘study project’, defines the criteria for a Residential Urban Interface approach as a tool for micro-urban redevelopment which merge into the proposed Project Plan, the metaproject field aimed at process design, space design and design of management and use scenario.

  7. Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

    2013-07-01

    Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

  8. The MY NASA DATA Project: Preparing Future Earth and Environmental Scientists, and Future Citizens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, L. H.; Phelps, C. S.; Phipps, M.; Holzer, M.; Daugherty, P.; Poling, E.; Vanderlaan, S.; Oots, P. C.; Moore, S. W.; Diones, D. D.

    2008-12-01

    global Earth System. These armchair explorers learn to unite datasets in a region to learn about places like and unlike where they live. In a world that's becoming smaller and smaller with the aid of technology, projects like MND prepare our students for their global future. A teacher located in an area of California strongly impacted by pollution and potential climate changes noted that this project makes available data that are very relevant to issues that will affect her students' lives. She points out that not all scientific information they currently see is in a form that is understandable to an educated citizen, and that the experience with MND will enable her students to have better than average skills not only for deciphering scientific maps and graphs; but also for creating maps and graphics that successfully convey information to others.

  9. Research project on “A Study in Urban Air Pollution Improvement in Asia”

    OpenAIRE

    2017-01-01

    This final report of the joint research project “A study in urban air pollution improvement in Asia” is submitted by the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) on behalf of the project team following the contract between AIT and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) for the project period of March 2015 - December 2017. Technical support is provided by the Asia Center for Air Pollution Research (ACAP) Japan and the operational support is provided by the Pollution Control Department (P...

  10. Glaucoma in Asia: regional prevalence variations and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Errol Wei'en; Li, Xiang; Tham, Yih-Chung; Liao, Jiemin; Wong, Tien Yin; Aung, Tin; Cheng, Ching-Yu

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate glaucoma prevalence and disease burden across Asian subregions from 2013 to 2040. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of 23 population-based studies of 1318 primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) cases in 66,800 individuals and 691 primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG) cases in 72,767 individuals in Asia. Regions in Asia were defined based on United Nations' (UN) classification of macro-geographic regions. PubMed, Medline and Web of Science databases were searched for population-based glaucoma prevalence studies using standardised criteria published to 31 December 2013. Pooled glaucoma prevalence for individuals aged 40-80 years was calculated using hierarchical Bayesian approaches. Prevalence differences by geographic subregion, subtype and habitation were examined with random effects meta-regression models. Estimates of individuals with glaucoma from 2013 to 2040 were based on the UN World Population Prospects. In 2013, pooled overall glaucoma prevalence was 3.54% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.83 to 6.28). POAG (2.34%, 95% CrI 0.96 to 4.55) predominated over PACG (0.73%, 95% CrI 0.18 to 1.96). With age and gender adjustment, PACG prevalence was higher in East than South East Asia (OR 5.55, 95% CrI 1.52 to 14.73), and POAG prevalence was higher in urban than rural populations (OR 2.11, 95% CrI 1.57 to 2.38). From 2013 to 2040, South Central Asia will record the steepest increase in number of glaucoma individuals from 17.06 million to 32.90 million compared with other Asian subregions. In 2040, South-Central Asia is also projected to overtake East Asia for highest overall glaucoma and POAG burden, while PACG burden remains highest in East Asia. Across the Asian subregions, there was greater glaucoma burden in South-Central and East Asia. Sustainable public health strategies to combat glaucoma in Asia are needed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  11. Private Sector-led Urban Development Projects. Management, Partnerships and Effects in the Netherlands and the UK

    OpenAIRE

    Erwin Heurkens

    2012-01-01

    Central to this research lays the concept of private sector-led urban development projects (Heurkens, 2010). Such projects involve project developers taking a leading role and local authorities adopting a facilitating role, in managing the development of an urban area, based on a clear public-private role division. Such a development strategy is quite common in Anglo-Saxon urban development practices, but is less known in Continental European practices. Nonetheless, since the beginning of the...

  12. Projecting future solid waste management requirements on the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaver, S.R.; Stiles, D.L.; Holter, G.M.; Anderson, B.C.

    1990-09-01

    The problem of treating and disposing of hazardous transuranic (TRU), low-level radioactive, and mixed waste has become a major concern of the public and the government. At the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington state, the problem is compounded by the need to characterize, retrieve, and treat the solid waste that was generated and stored for retrieval during the past 20 years. This paper discusses the development and application of a Solid Waste Projection Model that uses forecast volumes and characteristics of existing and future solid waste to address the treatment, storage, and disposal requirements at Hanford. The model uses a data-driven, object-oriented approach to assess the storage and treatment throughout requirements for each operation for each of the distinct waste classes and the accompanying cost of the storage and treatment operations. By defining the elements of each alternative for the total waste management system, the same database can be used for numerous analyses performed at different levels of detail. This approach also helps a variety of users with widely varying information requirements to use the model and helps achieve the high degree of flexibility needed to cope with changing regulations and evolving treatment and disposal technologies. 2 figs

  13. Optimizing the financial structure and maximizing the future value of your generation project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arulampalam, G.; Letellier, M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses ways of optimizing the financial structure and maximizing the future value of an electric power generation project. It outlines the project structure, the sponsor objectives, project finance lending criteria, project timeline, risk mitigation, bank and institutional financing, sponsor's role, impact of financing choices on project value, and impact of penalties and derivative products

  14. Management of Stakeholders in Urban Regeneration Projects. Case Study: Baia-Mare, Transylvania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corina M. Rădulescu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The process of regeneration of abandoned areas or deteriorated structures in the cities of Romania has become a strategy of urban-integrated development. Conversions and/or regeneration of facilities in the form of assets, with different destinations, are part of the new trend of urban regeneration and a strategy used to attract investment capital. The disappearance of mining industry sites in Maramures County, Romania, has allowed the expansion and planning of new spaces for public use and/or semipublic, and most cities have opened new development perspectives. The study is based on empirical research conducted on the brownfields of Baia-Mare City. This research investigates how stakeholders of an urban regeneration project can be more actively involved in the decision-making processes with regard to the strategic elements of the renewal project of Cuprom, as a former mining industry area. This research contributes to the development of the investigation of new types of knowledge of stakeholder analysis and improves the available practices for stakeholder salience. Social networks created and consolidated by stakeholders of an urban regeneration project are the object of analysis, evaluation, and monitoring of the equilibrium between project management and grant of resources and capital. This paper studies the salience of stakeholders of the SEPA-CUPROM project from Baia-Mare using the social networking approach. Visualization by graphical methods of social networking analysis is a useful instrument in the decision-making process of brownfield projects as part of sustainable strategies in Romania.

  15. Why would firms engage in urban regeneration projects?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jacob Norvig; Jensen, Jesper Ole

    mainly on case studies in selected inner-district urban neighbourhoods. It combines a number of different data sets. Official statistical data and planning documents and analyses are used to get a general profile of businesses in selected neighbourhoods. Primary data are collected by means of individual...... social responsibility is very often a matter of self-interest whereas local engagement is often considered irrelevant or a matter for public authority. Finally, there is a significant gap of knowledge of the other part between planners and local companies respectively....

  16. Pointing the Way to the Future of Project Management: How the Past and Present Point Towards Project Management's Future

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ballister, Robert

    2003-01-01

    .... The lessons learned from those projects, coupled with a look at project management history in general, will be checked against a current project management theory to determine if the focus of today's...

  17. Projected Effect of Increased Active Travel in German Urban Regions on the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinks, Ralph; Hoyer, Annika; Kuss, Oliver; Rathmann, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Background Future transportation policy is likely to reduce emissions in the cities and urban regions by strengthening active travel. Increased walking and cycling are known to have positive effects on health outcomes. This work estimates effects of increased active travel on type 2 diabetes in Germany, where 64% of the population live in urban regions. Methods Based on the effect size of an increased active travel scenario reported from a recent meta-analysis, we project the change in the life time risk, the proportion of prevented cases and the change in diabetes free life time in a German birth cohort (born 1985) compared to business as usual. Results The absolute risk reduction of developing type 2 diabetes before the age of 80 is 6.4% [95% confidence interval: 3.7-9.7%] for men and 4.7% [2.2-7.7%] for women, respectively. Compared to business as usual, the increased active travel scenario prevents 14.0% [8.1-21.2%] of the future cases of diabetes in men and 15.8% [9.3-23.1%] in women. Diabetes free survival increases by 1.7 [1.0-2.7] years in men and 1.4 [0.6-2.3] in women. Conclusions Our projection predicts a substantial impact of increased active travel on the future burden of type 2 diabetes. The most striking effect may be seen in the number of prevented cases. In all urban regions with an increased active travel transport policy, about one out of seven male and one out of six female cases can be prevented. PMID:25849819

  18. Projected effect of increased active travel in German urban regions on the risk of type 2 diabetes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralph Brinks

    Full Text Available Future transportation policy is likely to reduce emissions in the cities and urban regions by strengthening active travel. Increased walking and cycling are known to have positive effects on health outcomes. This work estimates effects of increased active travel on type 2 diabetes in Germany, where 64% of the population live in urban regions.Based on the effect size of an increased active travel scenario reported from a recent meta-analysis, we project the change in the life time risk, the proportion of prevented cases and the change in diabetes free life time in a German birth cohort (born 1985 compared to business as usual.The absolute risk reduction of developing type 2 diabetes before the age of 80 is 6.4% [95% confidence interval: 3.7-9.7%] for men and 4.7% [2.2-7.7%] for women, respectively. Compared to business as usual, the increased active travel scenario prevents 14.0% [8.1-21.2%] of the future cases of diabetes in men and 15.8% [9.3-23.1%] in women. Diabetes free survival increases by 1.7 [1.0-2.7] years in men and 1.4 [0.6-2.3] in women.Our projection predicts a substantial impact of increased active travel on the future burden of type 2 diabetes. The most striking effect may be seen in the number of prevented cases. In all urban regions with an increased active travel transport policy, about one out of seven male and one out of six female cases can be prevented.

  19. High resolution weather data for urban hydrological modelling and impact assessment, ICT requirements and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van Riemsdijk, Birna

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological analysis of urban catchments requires high resolution rainfall and catchment information because of the small size of these catchments, high spatial variability of the urban fabric, fast runoff processes and related short response times. Rainfall information available from traditional radar and rain gauge networks does no not meet the relevant scales of urban hydrology. A new type of weather radars, based on X-band frequency and equipped with Doppler and dual polarimetry capabilities, promises to provide more accurate rainfall estimates at the spatial and temporal scales that are required for urban hydrological analysis. Recently, the RAINGAIN project was started to analyse the applicability of this new type of radars in the context of urban hydrological modelling. In this project, meteorologists and hydrologists work closely together in several stages of urban hydrological analysis: from the acquisition procedure of novel and high-end radar products to data acquisition and processing, rainfall data retrieval, hydrological event analysis and forecasting. The project comprises of four pilot locations with various characteristics of weather radar equipment, ground stations, urban hydrological systems, modelling approaches and requirements. Access to data processing and modelling software is handled in different ways in the pilots, depending on ownership and user context. Sharing of data and software among pilots and with the outside world is an ongoing topic of discussion. The availability of high resolution weather data augments requirements with respect to the resolution of hydrological models and input data. This has led to the development of fully distributed hydrological models, the implementation of which remains limited by the unavailability of hydrological input data. On the other hand, if models are to be used in flood forecasting, hydrological models need to be computationally efficient to enable fast responses to extreme event conditions. This

  20. Geochemical legacies and the future health of cities: A tale of two neurotoxins in urban soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fillipelli, Gabriel M.; Risch, Martin R.; Laidlaw, Mark A. S.; Nichols, Deborah E.; Crewe, Julie

    2015-01-01

    The past and future of cities are inextricably linked, a linkage that can be seen clearly in the long-term impacts of urban geochemical legacies. As loci of population as well as the means of employment and industry to support these populations, cities have a long history of co-locating contaminating practices and people, sometimes with negative implications for human health. Working at the intersection between environmental processes, communities, and human health is critical to grapple with environmental legacies and to support healthy, sustainable, and growing urban populations. An emerging area of environmental health research is to understand the impacts of chronic exposures and exposure mixtures—these impacts are poorly studied, yet may pose a significant threat to population health.

  1. A look at a successful fee-charging urban project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Traitongyoo, T

    1985-10-01

    Bangkok's fee-charging Integrated Family Planning and Parasite Control Program (FPPC) is implemented by the Population and Community Development Association (PDA) and has grown from serving 36 schools and raising about US$1500 in 1976 to serving 231 schools and 200 factories and raising over US$75,000 in 1984. In addition to promoting health, the program aims at instilling a lifetime commitment to sensible health and family practices in the community. This urban program has been implemented in conjunction with a rural FPPC program through the financial and technical support of JOICFP, since 1976. Prior to that, PDA provided only family planning services. PDA is currently Thailand's largest private, non-profit organization involved in health care, appropriate technology, refugee assistance, water supply, agricultural marketing, as well as family planning and parasite control. The FPPC program works to mobilize the community to offer its support. Community involvement begins with the management of the program. Another community involvement comes from medical professionals from the local medical university who participate in the program for a fraction of their fees. Community-based family planning volunteers distribute contraceptives throughout their areas. The community also actively supports the FPPC program financially by paying fees. To communicate the benefits that people can derive from the services it offers, Bangkok's Urban FPPC program utilizes sophisticated marketing techniques such as advertising, direct mail, and a variety of public relations efforts. Family planning is publicly promoted in vasectomy festivals held each year throughout Bangkok. Married men are offered vasectomies free of charge if they have had 2 or more children. Exhibitions on parasite control and other health-related topics are also featured together with the sale of promotional items. Many of the program's activities have become major media events. Much of the credit is due to the

  2. COMPARISON OF THREE METHODS TO PROJECT FUTURE BASELINE CARBON EMISSIONS IN TEMPERATE RAINFOREST, CURINANCO, CHILE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patrick Gonzalez; Antonio Lara; Jorge Gayoso; Eduardo Neira; Patricio Romero; Leonardo Sotomayor

    2005-07-14

    Deforestation of temperate rainforests in Chile has decreased the provision of ecosystem services, including watershed protection, biodiversity conservation, and carbon sequestration. Forest conservation can restore those ecosystem services. Greenhouse gas policies that offer financing for the carbon emissions avoided by preventing deforestation require a projection of future baseline carbon emissions for an area if no forest conservation occurs. For a proposed 570 km{sup 2} conservation area in temperate rainforest around the rural community of Curinanco, Chile, we compared three methods to project future baseline carbon emissions: extrapolation from Landsat observations, Geomod, and Forest Restoration Carbon Analysis (FRCA). Analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data show 1986-1999 net deforestation of 1900 ha in the analysis area, proceeding at a rate of 0.0003 y{sup -1}. The gross rate of loss of closed natural forest was 0.042 y{sup -1}. In the period 1986-1999, closed natural forest decreased from 20,000 ha to 11,000 ha, with timber companies clearing natural forest to establish plantations of non-native species. Analyses of previous field measurements of species-specific forest biomass, tree allometry, and the carbon content of vegetation show that the dominant native forest type, broadleaf evergreen (bosque siempreverde), contains 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon, compared to the carbon density of non-native Pinus radiata plantations of 240 {+-} 60 t ha{sup -1}. The 1986-1999 conversion of closed broadleaf evergreen forest to open broadleaf evergreen forest, Pinus radiata plantations, shrublands, grasslands, urban areas, and bare ground decreased the carbon density from 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon to an average of 100 t ha{sup -1} (maximum 160 t ha{sup -1}, minimum 50 t ha{sup -1}). Consequently, the conversion released 1.1 million t carbon. These analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data provided the data to

  3. Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

  4. Software Support for the Classical, Contemporary and Future Project Management

    OpenAIRE

    Jakov Crnkovic; Peter Ross; Sanjay Desai

    2006-01-01

    The volume and complexity of Project Management (PM) raises many questions for managers. What exactly are we managing? People? Performance? Efficiency? Effectiveness? Cost? Time? At what levels do projects become challenging and worthy of significant management attention? Can some projects be left on auto-pilot? Must others be managed more aggressively? What metrics are useful in Project Management? How can they be integrated with normal performance metrics in the organization? How can metric...

  5. Documenter le futur: fantasmes, projections et decalages spatiotemporels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice Forge

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Le concept de documentation future recèle un paradoxe : le mot documenter renvoie à des traces relevées dans un passé factuel, tandis que le futur ne peut, par définition, être qu’incertain, que l’objet de fantasmes, de projections. L’analyse suivante questionne ce paradoxe à travers l’analyse d’un motif cinématographique : un homme et une femme face à une tranche de séquoia, représentation symbolique du temps. Ce motif apparait dans trois oeuvres majeures du cinéma : Vertigo, d’Alfred Hitchcock, La Jetée de Chris Marker, et l’Armée des douze singes, de Terry Gilliam. La répétition de ce motif est mise en rapport avec l’ouvrage de Pierre Bayard, Le plagiat par anticipation, afin de l’envisager sous l’angle du paradoxe temporel, plutôt que sous le régime de la chronologie historique. Cette analyse prend pour point de départ une oeuvre intitulée Vozes Fantasmas, qui sur le principe de la documentation future propose d’écouter des murmures de spectateurs visitant une exposition qui n’a pas eu lieu. RESUMO O conceito de documentação do futuro evoca um paradoxo: o verbo documentar refere-se a traços ou rastros preservados de um passado factual, enquanto o futuro por definição é algo incerto, objeto de especulações, fantasias e projeções. Nossa reflexão questiona este paradoxo a partir da análise de uma cena cinematográfica: um homem e uma mulher em frente de um corte de sequoia, que é a representação simbólica do tempo. Esta cena aprece em três grandes obras do cinema: Vertigo (Um corpo que cai de Alfred Hitchcock, La Jetée de Chris Marker, e Os Doze Macacos de Terry Gilliam. A repetição desta cena é abordada em relação à obra de Pierre Bayard, Plágio por antecipação, a fim de considerá-la em termos de paradoxo temporal, e não como uma cronologia histórica. Esta análise tem como ponto de partida um trabalho artístico intitulado Vozes Fantasmas, que seguindo o princípio de

  6. L’Aquila Smart Clean Air City: The Italian Pilot Project for Healthy Urban Air

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Avveduto

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Exposure to atmospheric pollution is a major concern for urban populations. Currently, no effective strategy has been adopted to tackle the problem. The paper presents the Smart Clean Air City project, a pilot experiment concerning the improvement in urban air quality. Small wet scrubber systems will be operating in a network configuration in suitable urban areas of L’Aquila city (Italy. The purpose of this work is to describe the project and show the preliminary results obtained in the characterization of two urban sites before the remediation test; the main operating principles of the wet scrubber system will be discussed, as well as the design of the mobile treatment plant for the processing of wastewater resulting from scrubber operation. Measurements of particle size distributions in the range of 0.30–25 µm took place in the two sites of interest, an urban background and a traffic area in the city of L’Aquila. The mean number concentration detected was 2.4 × 107 and 4.5 × 107 particles/m3, respectively. Finally, theoretical assessments, performed by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD codes, will show the effects of the wet scrubber operation on air pollutants under different environmental conditions and in several urban usage patterns.

  7. Air pollution prevention through urban heat island mitigation: An update on the urban heat island pilot project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorsevski, V.; Taha, H.; Quattrochi, D.; Luvall, J.

    1998-07-01

    Urban heat islands increase the demand for cooling energy and accelerate the formation of smog. They are created when natural vegetation is replaced by heat-absorbing surfaces such as building roofs and walls, parking lots, and streets. Through the implementation of measures designed to mitigate the urban heat island, communities can decrease their demand for energy and effectively cool the metropolitan landscape. In addition to the economic benefits, using less energy leads to reductions in emission of CO{sub 2}--a greenhouse gas--as well as ozone (smog) precursors such as NOx and VOCs. Because ozone is created when NOx and VOCs photochemically combine with heat and solar radiation, actions taken to lower ambient air temperature can significantly reduce ozone concentrations in certain areas. Measures to reverse the urban heat island include afforestation and the widespread use of highly reflective surfaces. To demonstrate the potential benefits of implementing these measures, EPA has teamed up with NASA and LBNL to initiate a pilot project with three US cities. As part of the pilot, NASA will use remotely-sensed data to quantify surface temperature, albedo, the thermal response number and NDVI vegetation of each city. This information will be used by scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) along with other data as inputs to model various scenarios that will help quantify the potential benefits of urban heat island mitigation measures in terms of reduced energy use and pollution. This paper will briefly describe this pilot project and provide an update on the progress to date.

  8. Citizen participation, indispensable factor in the generation of urban design projects that respond to the needs of users in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavio Franco Muñoz

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between urban design projects with users, it is evident that the importance of public participation in the development of the realization and implementation of these projects; being one of the aspects that aroused the interest in developing the research project "Citizen Participation and rehabilitation of public spaces in the downtown area of Aguascalientes. The cases of Madero and Venustiano Carranza Zaragoza streets" in the which it aims to propose a model for the process of developing an urban design project that incorporates citizen participation effectively, based on the analysis of cases of Madero and Venustiano Carranza Zaragoza streets and analysis theoretical framework of the research project; This research is being done within the Doctorate of Science of the Anthropic Areas, which is being conducted at the Autonomous University of Aguascalientes. The aim expose in this paper is the importance of public participation in a key stage in the process of realization and implementation of a project of urban design, urban planning stage, to substantiate the development stage of the project design city; this proposal derived from the analysis of the knowledge acquired through the research project being conducted within the PhD. The set in our research project to develop the stages in the process of realization and implementation of an urban design project, made up, urban planning, studies to substantiate the project, zoning scheme, the draft, the project executive, project implementation and monitoring, control and evaluation of urban design project realized; allowed to establish the stages where citizen participation is essential, and these stages, identifying the aspects that will be enriched with the knowledge gained from this participation. Considering the participation of citizens from the realization of urban development programs, whether in cities, partial, sectoral or development schemes localities, allow to be

  9. Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

    2016-12-01

    Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than

  10. An alternative projection model of future nuclear capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takei, Mitsuo

    1985-01-01

    There is generally a high degree of uncertainty involved in the projection of growth of any energy source, especially when the projection extends 50 years ahead. The 1982 OECD/NEA Report, 'Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle Prospect to 2025' notes the downturn in past projections of nuclear capacity over the past decade. It is obvious that rapidly changing conditions have affected overall worldwide energy and economic growth and the field of nuclear power has been subject to changes specific to itself. These have caused past projections to become obsolete and therefore it would seem necessary to implement a new projection method to improve the accuracy of present forecasting. (author)

  11. Software Support for the Classical, Contemporary and Future Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakov Crnkovic

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The volume and complexity of Project Management (PM raises many questions for managers. What exactly are we managing? People? Performance? Efficiency? Effectiveness? Cost? Time? At what levels do projects become challenging and worthy of significant management attention? Can some projects be left on auto-pilot? Must others be managed more aggressively? What metrics are useful in Project Management? How can they be integrated with normal performance metrics in the organization? How can metrics be built into assessment programs that work? How can projects be monitored, re-planned to stay within the original budget and schedule deadlines? How good is the PM software support? Do we really need PM software packages or it should be the integral part of the company's information system (IS? Where is the knowledge about company's previous projects and performance? Are we able to establish company or even industry wide standards for project management? Can we (or should we move from the PMBOK® guidelines and use other approaches? We discussing important questions in PM: software products, responsibilities for concurrently executing several projects (multi-projects with multi objectives and multiple deadlines, introducing a need for initiation, design, execution, and control using a virtual project management and application of the organizational project maturity model.

  12. The Comic Book Project: The Lives of Urban Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitz, Michael

    2004-01-01

    The Comic Book Project was launched originally as a way of putting into practice some of the most important educational research of the last decade--that is, the correlation between involvement in the arts and performance in academic subjects (Deasy, 2002; Fiske, 1999). This article is not necessarily about comic books; it is about children…

  13. Peri-urban futures: Scenarios and models for land use change in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    on a pan-European level Has a conclusive didactic approach + text structure (e.g. inserts, boxes ...) Presently, peri-urbanisation is one of the most pervasive processes of land use change in Europe with strong impacts on both the environment and quality of life. It is a matter of great urgency...... to determine strategies and tools in support of sustainable development. The book synthesizes the results of PLUREL, a large European Commission funded research project (2007-2010). Tools and strategies of PLUREL address main challenges of managing land use in peri-urban areas. These results are presented...

  14. Potentials of Urban Agriculture in Reflection of “The Thessaloniki Project - Red and Green”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fáczányi Zsuzsanna

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In spite of the fact the scene of food production is the rural territory; we are witnessing more and more unusual endeavours for farming in cities, additionally in megalopolises. There are numerous researches on the theme, and the new interest in the local cultivation of fruit and vegetable in cities is becoming an earnest factor in urban life in Western Europe, in the USA, and in the Developing World. At the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, AUTh two professors of architecture managed a course for MSc students of architecture and horticulture, with the intend of designing forms of urban agriculture on a fallow area in Thessaloniki, and considering the crisis situation in Greek. With analysing the proposals of “The Thessaloniki project - Red and Green” parallel with various realized urban agriculture projects I emphasise the force and necessity of the generation of a community

  15. Private Sector-led Urban Development Projects. Management, Partnerships and Effects in the Netherlands and the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erwin Heurkens

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Central to this research lays the concept of private sector-led urban development projects (Heurkens, 2010. Such projects involve project developers taking a leading role and local authorities adopting a facilitating role, in managing the development of an urban area, based on a clear public-private role division. Such a development strategy is quite common in Anglo-Saxon urban development practices, but is less known in Continental European practices. Nonetheless, since the beginning of the millennium such a development strategy also occurred in the Netherlands in the form of ‘concessions’. However, remarkably little empirical knowledge is available about how public and private actors collaborate on and manage private sector-led urban development projects. Moreover, it remains unclear what the effects of such projects are. This dissertation provides an understanding of the various characteristics of private sector-led urban development projects by conducting empirical case study research in the institutional contexts of the Netherlands and the UK. The research provides an answer to the following research question: What can we learn from private sector-led urban development projects in the Netherlands and UK in terms of the collaborative and managerial roles of public and private actors, and the effects of their (interactions? Indications for a market-oriented Dutch urban development practice Urban development practice in the Netherlands has been subject to changes pointing towards more private sector involvement in the built environment in the past decades. Although the current economic recession might indicate otherwise, there are several motives that indicate a continuation of private sector involvement and a private leadership role in Dutch urban development projects in the future. First, a shift towards more market-oriented development practice is the result of an evolutionary process of increased ‘neoliberalization’ and the

  16. "Does Hope Change? Testing a Project-Based Health Intervention among Urban Students of Color"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zusevics, Kaija L.; Johnson, Sheri

    2014-01-01

    Hope is positively correlated with educational attainment and health. Interventions based on project-based learning (PBL) may increase youth hope. This study examined how a PBL intervention affected hope among urban students of color. Students in health classes were invited to participate. A PBL health class was implemented in four classrooms. The…

  17. Increase of Investment Appeal of Projects for Noise Control Measures in Urban Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolmakov, A. V.; Ignatyeva, V. O.

    2017-11-01

    The authors analyzed the contemporary noise pollution level in the large cities of the Russian Federation. The article identifies the factors causing the reduction of acoustically comfortable urban territories. It states the task for the increase of investment appeal of the projects aimed at noise control measures adoption.

  18. Understanding the transformation of climate futures. A conceptual framework illustrated with urban adaptation policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boezeman, D.F.

    2016-01-01

    Projects in which science-based futures are produced indicating the relevant impacts of climatic changes are proliferating, in tandem with the increasing attention for climate change adaptation. Constructionist science studies have put forward the concept of ‘co-production’ to understand how

  19. Proyecciones del urbanismo contemporáneo/The future of contemporary urbanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Humeres Solar, Arqto. Roberto [1937

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Se destaca que la complejidad de los problemas urbanos exige un abordaje multidisciplinario para su resolución. Se observa cómo la evolución política habida en los primeros decenios del siglo XX contribuyó a robustecer los principios en que se funda el Urbanismo, considerando la subordinación del interés particular al interés colectivo. Luego de reseñar las limitaciones del Urbanismo en Chile de su época, Humeres prevé que el Urbanismo tendrá a futuro no sólo una extensión regional o nacional, sino también continental y mundial, en la perspectiva de una solución más coordinada e integral para las necesidades de la humanidad./The complexity of urban problems demands international and interdisciplinary actions. Politics in the first two decades of 20th century developed a strong basis for urbanism. The author foresees an international and global urbanism, in the perspective of coordinated projects.

  20. Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elliott L Matchett

    Full Text Available The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration

  1. Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matchett, Elliott L; Fleskes, Joseph P

    2017-01-01

    The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

  2. Projected impacts of climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration on waterbird habitat in California’s Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph

    2017-01-01

    The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

  3. The human genome project and the future of medical practice ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Contrary to the scepticism that characterised the planning stages of the human genome project, the technology and sequence data resulting from the project are set to revolutionise medical practice for good. The expected benefits include: enhanced discovery of disease genes, which will lead to improved knowledge on the ...

  4. Geochemical legacies and the future health of cities: A tale of two neurotoxins in urban soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel M. Filippelli

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The past and future of cities are inextricably linked, a linkage that can be seen clearly in the long-term impacts of urban geochemical legacies. As loci of population as well as the means of employment and industry to support these populations, cities have a long history of co-locating contaminating practices and people, sometimes with negative implications for human health. Working at the intersection between environmental processes, communities, and human health is critical to grapple with environmental legacies and to support healthy, sustainable, and growing urban populations. An emerging area of environmental health research is to understand the impacts of chronic exposures and exposure mixtures—these impacts are poorly studied, yet may pose a significant threat to population health. Acute exposure to lead (Pb, a powerful neurotoxin to which children are particularly susceptible, has largely been eliminated in the U.S. and other countries through policy-based restrictions on leaded gasoline and lead-based paints. But the legacy of these sources remains in the form of surface soil Pb contamination, a common problem in cities and one that has only recently emerged as a widespread chronic exposure mechanism in cities. Some urban soils are also contaminated with another neurotoxin, mercury (Hg. The greatest human exposure to Hg is through fish consumption, so eating fish caught in urban areas presents risks for toxic Hg exposure. The potential double impact of chronic exposure to these two neurotoxins is pronounced in cities. Overall, there is a paradigmatic shift from reaction to and remediation of acute exposures towards a more nuanced understanding of the dynamic cycling of persistent environmental contaminants with resultant widespread and chronic exposure of inner-city dwellers, leading to chronic toxic illness and disability at substantial human and social cost.

  5. Urbane Projekter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anne Juel

    2013-01-01

    of Chapter 1 ’problem and research questions’, Chapter 2 ’place, discourse and planning as a theoretical framework’ and Chapter 3 ’research design’. Part 2 ’urban practice locally, nationally and globally’ consisting of Chapter 4 ’background and context, urban trans- formations in Aalborg from 1950 to 2013...... of Chapter 9 with the same name. The analysis results and thus the conclusions are at 3 levels of knowledge: Historically specific development in terms of urban planning practices respectively in Aalborg and natio- nally/internationally The tools here have been a focus on different rationales or urban...... projects as a strategic tool in urban policy, development of place perceptions, the use of narratives in the planning processes, the functions of representations as discursive devised imagined realities, power structures and planning approaches - knowledge that can be used in the future practice of other...

  6. Analysis of Compound Water Hazard in Coastal Urbanized Areas under the Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibuo, Y.; Taniguchi, K.; Sanuki, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Lee, S.; Tajima, Y.; Koike, T.; Furumai, H.; Sato, S.

    2017-12-01

    Several studies indicate the increased frequency and magnitude of heavy rainfalls as well as the sea level rise under the future climate, which implies that coastal low-lying urbanized areas may experience increased risk against flooding. In such areas, where river discharge, tidal fluctuation, and city drainage networks altogether influence urban inundation, it is necessary to consider their potential interference to understand the effect of compound water hazard. For instance, pump stations cannot pump out storm water when the river water level is high, and in the meantime the river water level shall increase when it receives pumped water from cities. At the further downstream, as the tidal fluctuation regulates the water levels in the river, it will also affect the functionality of pump stations and possible inundation from rivers. In this study, we estimate compound water hazard in the coastal low-lying urbanized areas of the Tsurumi river basin under the future climate. We developed the seamlessly integrated river, sewerage, and coastal hydraulic model that can simulate river water levels, water flow in sewerage network, and inundation from the rivers and/or the coast to address the potential interference issue. As a forcing, the pseudo global warming method, which applies the changes in GCM anomaly to re-analysis data, is employed to produce ensemble typhoons to drive the seamlessly integrated model. The results show that heavy rainfalls caused by the observed typhoon generally become stronger under the pseudo global climate condition. It also suggests that the coastal low-lying areas become extensively inundated if the onset of river flooding and storm surge coincides.

  7. Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Rothwell

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

  8. Decontamination Technologies, Task 3, Urban Remediation and Response Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heiser, J.; Sullivan, T.

    2009-01-01

    In the aftermath of a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD, also known as a dirty bomb) it will be necessary to remediate the site including building exteriors and interiors, equipment, pavement, vehicles, personal items etc. Remediation will remove or reduce radioactive contamination from the area using a combination of removing and disposing of many assets (including possible demolition of buildings), decontaminating and returning to service other assets, and fixing in place or leaving in place contamination that is deemed 'acceptable'. The later will require setting acceptable dose standards, which will require negotiation with all involved parties and a balance of risk and cost to benefit. To accomplish the first two, disposal or decontamination, a combination of technologies will be deployed that can be loosely classified as: Decontamination; Equipment removal and size reduction; and Demolition. This report will deal only with the decontamination technologies that will be used to return assets to service or to reduce waste disposal. It will not discuss demolition, size reduction or removal technologies or equipment (e.g., backhoe mounted rams, rock splitter, paving breakers and chipping hammers, etc.). As defined by the DOE (1994), decontamination is removal of radiological contamination from the surfaces of facilities and equipment. Expertise in this field comes primarily from the operation and decommissioning of DOE and commercial nuclear facilities as well as a small amount of ongoing research and development closely related to RDD decontamination. Information related to decontamination of fields, buildings, and public spaces resulting from the Goiania and Chernobyl incidents were also reviewed and provide some meaningful insight into decontamination at major urban areas. In order to proceed with decontamination, the item being processed needs to have an intrinsic value that exceeds the cost of the cleaning and justifies the exposure of any workers during the

  9. Decontamination Technologies, Task 3, Urban Remediation and Response Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heiser,J.; Sullivan, T.

    2009-06-30

    In the aftermath of a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD, also known as a dirty bomb) it will be necessary to remediate the site including building exteriors and interiors, equipment, pavement, vehicles, personal items etc. Remediation will remove or reduce radioactive contamination from the area using a combination of removing and disposing of many assets (including possible demolition of buildings), decontaminating and returning to service other assets, and fixing in place or leaving in place contamination that is deemed 'acceptable'. The later will require setting acceptable dose standards, which will require negotiation with all involved parties and a balance of risk and cost to benefit. To accomplish the first two, disposal or decontamination, a combination of technologies will be deployed that can be loosely classified as: Decontamination; Equipment removal and size reduction; and Demolition. This report will deal only with the decontamination technologies that will be used to return assets to service or to reduce waste disposal. It will not discuss demolition, size reduction or removal technologies or equipment (e.g., backhoe mounted rams, rock splitter, paving breakers and chipping hammers, etc.). As defined by the DOE (1994), decontamination is removal of radiological contamination from the surfaces of facilities and equipment. Expertise in this field comes primarily from the operation and decommissioning of DOE and commercial nuclear facilities as well as a small amount of ongoing research and development closely related to RDD decontamination. Information related to decontamination of fields, buildings, and public spaces resulting from the Goiania and Chernobyl incidents were also reviewed and provide some meaningful insight into decontamination at major urban areas. In order to proceed with decontamination, the item being processed needs to have an intrinsic value that exceeds the cost of the cleaning and justifies the exposure of any workers

  10. Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land-use ANalysis: Temperature and Air quality): A Study of how the Urban Landscape Affects Meteorology and Air Quality Through Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Estes, Maurice G.; Lo, C. P.; Kidder, Stanley Q.; Hafner, Jan; Taha, Haider; Bornstein, Robert D.; Gillies, Robert R.; Gallo, Kevin P.

    1998-01-01

    It is our intent through this investigation to help facilitate measures that can be Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land-use ANalysis: applied to mitigate climatological or air quality Temperature and Air-quality) is a NASA Earth degradation, or to design alternate measures to sustain Observing System (EOS) Interdisciplinary Science or improve the overall urban environment in the future. investigation that seeks to observe, measure, model, and analyze how the rapid growth of the Atlanta. The primary objectives for this research effort are: 1) To In the last half of the 20th century, Atlanta, investigate and model the relationship between Atlanta Georgia has risen as the premier commercial, urban growth, land cover change, and the development industrial, and transportation urban area of the of the urban heat island phenomenon through time at southeastern United States. The rapid growth of the nested spatial scales from local to regional; 2) To Atlanta area, particularly within the last 25 years, has investigate and model the relationship between Atlanta made Atlanta one of the fastest growing metropolitan urban growth and land cover change on air quality areas in the United States. The population of the through time at nested spatial scales from local to Atlanta metropolitan area increased 27% between 1970 regional; and 3) To model the overall effects of urban and 1980, and 33% between 1980-1990 (Research development on surface energy budget characteristics Atlanta, Inc., 1993). Concomitant with this high rate of across the Atlanta urban landscape through time at population growth, has been an explosive growth in nested spatial scales from local to regional. Our key retail, industrial, commercial, and transportation goal is to derive a better scientific understanding of how services within the Atlanta region. This has resulted in land cover changes associated with urbanization in the tremendous land cover change dynamics within the Atlanta area, principally in transforming

  11. The Urban Environmental Monitoring/100 Cities Project: Legacy of the First Phase and Next Steps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanov, William L.; Wentz, Elizabeth A.; Brazel, Anthony; Netzband, Maik; Moeller, Matthias

    2009-01-01

    The Urban Environmental Monitoring (UEM) project, now known as the 100 Cities Project, at Arizona State University (ASU) is a baseline effort to collect and analyze remotely sensed data for 100 urban centers worldwide. Our overarching goal is to use remote sensing technology to better understand the consequences of rapid urbanization through advanced biophysical measurements, classification methods, and modeling, which can then be used to inform public policy and planning. Urbanization represents one of the most significant alterations that humankind has made to the surface of the earth. In the early 20th century, there were less than 20 cities in the world with populations exceeding 1 million; today, there are more than 400. The consequences of urbanization include the transformation of land surfaces from undisturbed natural environments to land that supports different forms of human activity, including agriculture, residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure such as roads and other types of transportation. Each of these land transformations has impacted, to varying degrees, the local climatology, hydrology, geology, and biota that predate human settlement. It is essential that we document, to the best of our ability, the nature of land transformations and the consequences to the existing environment. The focus in the UEM project since its inception has been on rapid urbanization. Rapid urbanization is occurring in hundreds of cities worldwide as population increases and people migrate from rural communities to urban centers in search of employment and a better quality of life. The unintended consequences of rapid urbanization have the potential to cause serious harm to the environment, to human life, and to the resulting built environment because rapid development constrains and rushes decision making. Such rapid decision making can result in poor planning, ineffective policies, and decisions that harm the environment and the quality of human life

  12. The effect of urban geometry on mean radiant temperature under future climate change: a study of three European cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Lindberg, Fredrik; Rayner, David; Thorsson, Sofia

    2015-07-01

    Future anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase the air temperature (T(a)) across Europe and increase the frequency, duration and magnitude of severe heat stress events. Heat stress events are generally associated with clear-sky conditions and high T(a), which give rise to high radiant heat load, i.e. mean radiant temperature (T(mrt)). In urban environments, T mrt is strongly influenced by urban geometry. The present study examines the effect of urban geometry on daytime heat stress in three European cities (Gothenburg in Sweden, Frankfurt in Germany and Porto in Portugal) under present and future climates, using T(mrt) as an indicator of heat stress. It is found that severe heat stress occurs in all three cities. Similar maximum daytime T(mrt) is found in open areas in all three cities despite of the latitudinal differences in average daytime T(mrt). In contrast, dense urban structures like narrow street canyons are able to mitigate heat stress in the summer, without causing substantial changes in T(mrt) in the winter. Although the T(mrt) averages are similar for the north-south and east-west street canyons in each city, the number of hours when T(mrt) exceeds the threshold values of 55.5 and 59.4 °C-used as indicators of moderate and severe heat stress-in the north-south canyons is much higher than that in the east-west canyons. Using statistically downscaled data from a regional climate model, it is found that the study sites were generally warmer in the future scenario, especially Porto, which would further exacerbate heat stress in urban areas. However, a decrease in solar radiation in Gothenburg and Frankfurt reduces T(mrt) in the spring, while the reduction in T(mrt) is somewhat offset by increasing T(a) in other seasons. It suggests that changes in the T(mrt) under the future scenario are dominated by variations in T(a). Nonetheless, the intra-urban differences remain relatively stable in the future. These findings suggest that dense urban

  13. Spatial Optimization of Future Urban Development with Regards to Climate Risk and Sustainability Objectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caparros-Midwood, Daniel; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

    2017-11-01

    Future development in cities needs to manage increasing populations, climate-related risks, and sustainable development objectives such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Planners therefore face a challenge of multidimensional, spatial optimization in order to balance potential tradeoffs and maximize synergies between risks and other objectives. To address this, a spatial optimization framework has been developed. This uses a spatially implemented genetic algorithm to generate a set of Pareto-optimal results that provide planners with the best set of trade-off spatial plans for six risk and sustainability objectives: (i) minimize heat risks, (ii) minimize flooding risks, (iii) minimize transport travel costs to minimize associated emissions, (iv) maximize brownfield development, (v) minimize urban sprawl, and (vi) prevent development of greenspace. The framework is applied to Greater London (U.K.) and shown to generate spatial development strategies that are optimal for specific objectives and differ significantly from the existing development strategies. In addition, the analysis reveals tradeoffs between different risks as well as between risk and sustainability objectives. While increases in heat or flood risk can be avoided, there are no strategies that do not increase at least one of these. Tradeoffs between risk and other sustainability objectives can be more severe, for example, minimizing heat risk is only possible if future development is allowed to sprawl significantly. The results highlight the importance of spatial structure in modulating risks and other sustainability objectives. However, not all planning objectives are suited to quantified optimization and so the results should form part of an evidence base to improve the delivery of risk and sustainability management in future urban development. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Sizo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

  15. The human Genome project and the future of oncology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, Francis S.

    1996-01-01

    The Human Genome Project is an ambitious 15-year effort to devise maps and sequence of the 3-billion base pair human genome, including all 100,000 genes. The project is running ahead of schedule and under budget. Already the effects on progress in disease gene discovery have been dramatic, especially for cancer. The most appropriate uses of susceptibility testing for breast, ovarian, and colon cancer are being investigated in research protocols, and the need to prevent genetic discrimination in employment and health insurance is becoming more urgent. In the longer term, these gene discoveries are likely to usher in a new era of therapeutic molecular medicine

  16. ORGANIZATION OF FUTURE ENGINEERS' PROJECT-BASED LEARNING WHEN STUDYING THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halyna V. Lutsenko

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The peculiarities of modern world experience of implementation of project-based learning in engineering education have been considered. The potential role and place of projects in learning activity have been analyzed. The methodology of organization of project-based activity of engineering students when studying the project management methodology and computer systems of project management has been proposed. The requirements to documentation and actual results of students' projects have been described in detail. The requirements to computer-aided systems of project management developed by using Microsoft Project in the scope of diary scheduling and resources planning have been formulated.

  17. ‘Slow’ Urban Development, the History and the Future of Poblenou, 22. District of Barcelona, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adorján Anna

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Urban renewal projects are based on long-term strategies and huge economical resources. It takes a lot of time to successfully regenerate an abandoned area, create a new centre, infrastructure, businesses, communities. It also needs the kind of systematic and conscious focus that we see in Germany and Scandinavia. While Spain was one of the most touched countries of the economical crisis, it still succeeded at presenting interesting urban development initiatives.

  18. The Philippine nuclear power project, its past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovellanos, J.U.

    1993-01-01

    The article discussed the historical background of the nuclear power plants; how it operates; the government opinion on the operation of the nuclear power plant; the application of power resources to industry; the implementation of PNPP-1 particularly the economic aspects of energy in the near future. (IMA)

  19. First results and future projects for Petula ECE measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    How, J.; Melin, G.; Girard, A.

    1985-01-01

    Electron cyclotron emission (ECE) diagnostics are being installed on the Petula-B tokamak. First results include extensive measurements of the total ECE radiation, integrated over 50-1000 GHz, during ohmic and current drive operation, and preliminary interferograms from the polarizing interferometer. Future plans are discussed

  20. The AVuPUR project (Assessing the Vulnerability of Peri-Urban Rivers) : experimental and modelling strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braud, I.; Chancibault, K.; Debionne, S.; Lieme Kouyi, G.; Sarrazin, B.; Jacqueminet, C.

    2009-04-01

    Due to the development of urbanisation and the associated pollutions, peri-urban rivers face an increasing pressure on the receiving waters and an enhancement of floods. In order to limit the risks and define adapted management scenarios, it is important to identify the key factors over which action is possible. In particular, due to the Water Framework Directive, discharge of polluted water into rivers must be limited and actions must be undertaken in order to restore the ecological quality of water. In this context, integrated modelling tools, taking into account anthropogenic effects on the water cycle are interesting as they provide ways to test and evaluate the efficiency of different management scenarios. However improvements are still required to derive tools allowing a continuous and long term modelling of the hydrological cycle in peri-urban areas. The models must take into account the surface heterogeneity (mixture of rural and urbanised areas), and also the natural and artificial water pathways, which influence the water quality. These questions are the focus of the AVuPUR (Assessing the Vulnerability of Peri-Urban Rivers) project. Its aims are 1) to provide a better description of the heterogeneity of peri-urban catchments and of the associated water pathways using field survey, GIS and remote sensing analysis of high resolution images; 2) to provide long term detailed simulation models of the hydrological cycle in peri-urban catchments to increase our understanding of the processes involved; 3) to improve existing hydrological models with a better handling of the urbanised areas in order to derive tools usable by stakeholders; 4) to run long term simulations of the hydrological cycle using past and future land-use and climate scenarios and quantify the impact on the hydrological regime. The project focuses on two experimental catchments: the Yzeron catchment (147 km2), a peri-urban catchment located in the west of Lyon (south-east of France) and the Ch

  1. Present status and future development of Qinshan nuclear power project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouyang Yu

    1987-01-01

    Qinshan 300 MWe Nuclear power Project is the first domestically designed and constructed nuclear power plant in China. Here is a brief description of its progress in design work, equipment manufacture and site construction since the first structural concrete in March 1985. In Qinshan area four units of 600 MWe each are planned to be built with collaboration of proper foreign partners. (author)

  2. Suicide among Older People: Projections for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Ann Pollinger; Hendin, Herbert

    1983-01-01

    Demonstrates the relationship between cohort size and longitudinal suicide rates, with reference to four particular cohorts. Combines this perspective with projected population increases among older age groups to estimate the scope of the problem of suicide among older people during the early decades of the next century. (Author/JAC)

  3. Assessing the Future Vehicle Fleet Electrification: The Impacts on Regional and Urban Air Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, Wenwei; Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao; Hao, Jiming

    2017-01-17

    There have been significant advancements in electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years. However, the different changing patterns in emissions at upstream and on-road stages and complex atmospheric chemistry of pollutants lead to uncertainty in the air quality benefits from fleet electrification. This study considers the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in China to investigate whether EVs can improve future air quality. The Community Multiscale Air Quality model enhanced by the two-dimensional volatility basis set module is applied to simulate the temporally, spatially, and chemically resolved changes in PM 2.5 concentrations and the changes of other pollutants from fleet electrification. A probable scenario (Scenario EV1) with 20% of private light-duty passenger vehicles and 80% of commercial passenger vehicles (e.g., taxis and buses) electrified can reduce average PM 2.5 concentrations by 0.4 to 1.1 μg m -3 during four representative months for all urban areas of YRD in 2030. The seasonal distinctions of the air quality impacts with respect to concentration reductions in key aerosol components are also identified. For example, the PM 2.5 reduction in January is mainly attributed to the nitrate reduction, whereas the secondary organic aerosol reduction is another essential contributor in August. EVs can also effectively assist in mitigating NO 2 concentrations, which would gain greater reductions for traffic-dense urban areas (e.g., Shanghai). This paper reveals that the fleet electrification in the YRD region could generally play a positive role in improving regional and urban air quality.

  4. The integration of the risk in the governance of urban projects: a key issue for a resilient city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulin, E.; Deroubaix, J.-F.

    2012-04-01

    Despite a severe regulation concerning the building in flooding areas, 80% of these areas are already built in the Greater Paris (Paris, Val-de-Marne, Hauts-de-Seine and Seine-Saint-Denis). The land use in flooding area is presented as one of the main solutions to solve the ongoing real estate pressure. For instance some of the industrial wastelands located along the river are currently in redevelopment and residential buildings are planned. So landuse in the flooding areas is currently a key issue in the development of the Greater Paris area. Tools and measures, structural or non-structural such as warning systems, barriers, etc do exist and could be a smart way to improve the resilience of the new urbanised areas. The technical solutions are available and efficient, but we notice that these tools are not much implemented. There is a lack of flood risk concern among the stakeholders and the inhabitants1. How landuse stakeholders could integrate the flood risk in the decision making process throughout the implementation of the urban project? Which type of governance favours an efficient development of good flood risk policy including prevention, protection and the management of the crisis? What is the "good" governance of the urban project e.g. enabling to take into account or not to forget the flood risk and to empower the (future) inhabitants? This inhabitants' empowerment includes the improvement of awareness (i.e. inhabitants being aware that they live in a flooded area) and the improvement of concern (i.e. inhabitants adopting the "right" behaviour when the risk occurs). In order to investigate how flood risk is or could be integrated in the project governance, we interviewed stakeholders (elected representatives, architects, property developers, etc.) and observed the integration or the vanishing of the risk throughout the project. In order to develop this topic we rely on a case study. The "Ardoines" is a project aiming at redeveloping an industrial site

  5. Characterisation of current and future GNSS performance in urban canyons using a high quality 3-D urban model of Melbourne, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gang-jun, Liu; Kefei, Zhang; Falin, Wu; Liam, Densley; Retscher, Günther

    2009-03-01

    Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is a critical space-borne geospatial infrastructure providing essential positioning supports to a range of location-sensitive applications. GNSS is currently dominated by the US Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation. The next generation GNSS is expected to offer more satellites, better positioning provision, and improved availability and continuity of navigation support. However, GNSS performance in 3-D urban environments is problematic because GNSS signals are either completely blocked or severely degraded by high-rising geographic features like buildings. The aim of this study is to gain an in-depth understanding of the changing spatial patterns of GNSS performance, measured by the number of visible satellites (NVS) and position dilution-of-precision (PDOP), in the urban canyons of Melbourne, Australia. The methodology used includes the following steps: (1) determination of the dynamic orbital positions of current and future GNSS satellites; (2) development of a 3-D urban model of high geometric quality for Melbourne Central Business District (CBD); (3) evaluation of GNSS performance for every specified location in the urban canyons; and (4) visualisation and characterisation of the dynamic spatial patterns of GNSS performances in the urban canyons. As expected, the study shows that the integration of the GPS and Galileo constellations results in higher availability and stronger geometry, leading to significant improvement of GNSS performance in urban canyons of Melbourne CBD. Some conclusions are drawn and further research currently undertaken is also outlined.

  6. Comprehensive evaluation of environmental and economic benefits of China's urban underground transportation construction projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaobin; Chen, Zhilong; Guo, Dongjun

    2015-07-01

    Urban underground transportation projects are introduced to address problems of scarce green land and traffic pollution. As construction of urban underground transportation is still in its infancy, there is no definite quantitative measurement on whether the construction is beneficial and what influences it will place on the region in China. This study intends to construct a comprehensive evaluation method for evaluating social, economic and environmental benefits of urban underground transportation projects and proposes the concept, role and principle for evaluation of environmental and economic benefits. It figures out relationship between the environment and factors of city development. It also summarizes three relevant factors, including transportation, biophysics and social economy, and works out indicators to evaluate the influence of urban underground transportation construction. Based on Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), Cost of Illness Approach (CIA), Human Capital Approach (HCA), this paper constructs 13 monetization calculation models for social, economic and environmental benefits in response to seven aspects, namely, reducing noise pollution and air pollution, using land efficiently, improving traffic safety, reducing traffic congestion, saving shipping time and minimizing transportation costs.

  7. Land-Use Regression Modelling of Intra-Urban Air Pollution Variation in China: Current Status and Future Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baihuiqian He

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Rapid urbanization in China is leading to substantial adverse air quality issues, particularly for NO2 and particulate matter (PM. Land-use regression (LUR models are now being applied to simulate pollutant concentrations with high spatial resolution in Chinese urban areas. However, Chinese urban areas differ from those in Europe and North America, for example in respect of population density, urban morphology and pollutant emissions densities, so it is timely to assess current LUR studies in China to highlight current challenges and identify future needs. Details of twenty-four recent LUR models for NO2 and PM2.5/PM10 (particles with aerodynamic diameters <2.5 µm and <10 µm are tabulated and reviewed as the basis for discussion in this paper. We highlight that LUR modelling in China is currently constrained by a scarcity of input data, especially air pollution monitoring data. There is an urgent need for accessible archives of quality-assured measurement data and for higher spatial resolution proxy data for urban emissions, particularly in respect of traffic-related variables. The rapidly evolving nature of the Chinese urban landscape makes maintaining up-to-date land-use and urban morphology datasets a challenge. We also highlight the importance for Chinese LUR models to be subject to appropriate validation statistics. Integration of LUR with portable monitor data, remote sensing, and dispersion modelling has the potential to enhance derivation of urban pollution maps.

  8. Point Lepreau nuclear project unlocks power future of New Brunswick

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgess, E J [New Brunswick Electric Power Commission, Fredericton (Canada)

    1976-08-01

    Projects under development will increase the generating capacity of New Brunswick Electric Power Commission from 1.47 to 3.14 GW. Of these projects, the most significant is the 0.63 GW Point Lepreau CANDU reactor. Progress in the construction of the power reactor is summarized. The concrete reactor building was slipformed in April 1976. A second nuclear unit at Point Lepreau is being considered. Information is also provided on the new oil-fired station at Coleson Cove, a new oil- or coal-fired unit at Dalhousie and further hydro units at Mactaquac. A 0.16 GW pumped storage hydro unit at Green River is being considered. Information on transmission (Including the HVDC system), substations, and connection with Hydro Quebec is included.

  9. The Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project: Experiences and future plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, D.E.; Lego, A.J.; Clifford, A.E.

    1995-12-31

    Fully operational in June of 1994, the Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project was started to gain insight into the costs and benefits of providing ISDN service to the homes of Fermilab researchers. Fourteen users were chosen from throughout Fermilab, but the number of Fermilab-employed spouses pushed the total user count to 20. Each home was equipped with a basic rate ISDN (BRI) line, a BRI Ethernet half-bridge, and an NT-1. An inter-departmental team coordinated the project. Usage at each home was tracked and frequent surveys were attempted. Lessons learned include: working with Ameritech can be difficult; careful monitoring is essential; and configuration of home computing equipment is very time consuming. Plans include moving entirely to primary rate ISDN hubs, support for different home ISDN equipment and better usage and performance tracking.

  10. The Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project: Experiences and future plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, D.E.; Lego, A.J.; Clifford, A.E.

    1995-01-01

    Fully operational in June of 1994, the Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project was started to gain insight into the costs and benefits of providing ISDN service to the homes of Fermilab researchers. Fourteen users were chosen from throughout Fermilab, but the number of Fermilab-employed spouses pushed the total user count to 20. Each home was equipped with a basic rate ISDN (BRI) line, a BRI Ethernet half-bridge, and an NT-1. An inter-departmental team coordinated the project. Usage at each home was tracked and frequent surveys were attempted. Lessons learned include: working with Ameritech can be difficult; careful monitoring is essential; and configuration of home computing equipment is very time consuming. Plans include moving entirely to primary rate ISDN hubs, support for different home ISDN equipment and better usage and performance tracking

  11. The Fermilab ISDN pilot project: experiences and future plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, D.E.; Lego, A.J.; Clifford, A.E.

    1996-01-01

    Fully operational in June of 1994, the Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project was started to gain insight into the costs and benefits of providing ISDN service to the homes of Fermilab researchers. Fourteen were chosen from throughout Fermilab, but the number of Fermilab-employed spouses pushed the total user count to 20. each home was equipped with a basic rate ISDN (BRI) Ethernet half-bridge, and an NT-1. An inter-departmental team coordinated the project. Usage at each home was tracked and frequent surveys were attempted. Lessons learned include: working with Ameritech can be difficult; careful monitoring is essential; and configuration of home computing equipment is very time consuming. Plans include moving entirely to primary rate ISDN hubs, support for different home ISDN equipment and better usage and performance tracking. (author)

  12. Small launchers (current and future projects in the world)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, W. G.

    1993-01-01

    Small satellites need launching services using small launchers capable of injecting 100 to 1000 kg into a polar orbit at an altitude of 1000 km. Operational small launchers are reviewed as well as developing and planned ones. Launcher characteristics, constraints, performance, and status are detailed. Few technical problems are encountered, as most launcher projects call for existing components and well known technologies. Most of the difficulties have come from launch site availability and from financial considerations.

  13. Curated routes: the project of developing experiential tracks in sub-urban landscape

    OpenAIRE

    Papathanasiou, Maximi; Uyttenhove, Pieter

    2015-01-01

    The Curated Routes project reflects on the visiting routes’ ability to make apparent the internal characteristics of urban environments. The project’s name allude to the intellectual function of curation and the materiality of routes. Curate deals with the practice of arranging material –tangible or intangible- in a way that a new understanding of an area is revealed. The word routes refers to the linear associations that link places and guide movement. The Curated Routes aim to reinforce the...

  14. (Un)Sustainable Community Projects: An Urban Ethnography in a Barrio in Las Vegas

    OpenAIRE

    Castrejón, J. Adrian

    2017-01-01

    This essay and the accompanying study are part of a broader project, Southern Nevada Strong (SNS), which seeks to improve housing, safety, transportation, and employment opportunities in areas of high need in the Las Vegas, Nevada metropolitan area. The study examined the living conditions for Chicanx/Latinx residents in Barrio 28th Street, employing urban ethnographic methods as part of the community-input phase of SNS. Although barrios are cultural and historical places of solidar...

  15. Interconnecting Urban Planning with Multi-Scale Urban Quality : Review of Macro Scale Urban Redevelopment Project on Micro Scale Urban Quality in Shenzhen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deng, X.

    2015-01-01

    The Shenzhen planning system has been effective in promoting economic growth through the prodigious urbanization of land. It has given priority to the ‘macro-level’ planning goals of economic growth through physical development. Questions can be raised about the physical and social outcomes from the

  16. NORTH-EAST ROMANIA AS A FUTURE SOURCE OF TREES FOR URBAN PAVED ENVIRONMENTS IN NORTH-WEST EUROPE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SJÖMAN HENRIK

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Trees are an important feature of the urban environment. The problem today lies not in finding a wide range of well-adapted tree species for park environments, but in finding species suitable for urban paved sites. In terms of north-west Europe, it is unlikely that the limited native dendroflora will provide a large variety of tree species with high tolerance to the environmental stresses characterising urban paved sites in the region. However, other regions with a comparable climate but with a rich dendroflora can potentially provide new tree species and genera well-suited to the growing conditions at urban sites in north-west Europe. This paper examines the potential of a geographical area extending over north-east Romania and the Republic of Moldavia to supply suitable tree species for urban paved sites in Central and Northern Europe (CNE. The study involved comparing the temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and water runoff in the woodland area of Iasi, Romania, with those the current inner-city climate of Copenhagen, Denmark and those predicted for Copenhagen 2100. The latter included urban heat island effects and predicted global climate change. The results revealed similar pattern in summer water deficit and temperature between natural woodlands in Iasi and inner-city environment of Copenhagen today. On the other hand, there is a weak match between Iasi and the future Copenhagen. In order to match the future scenario of Copenhagen with the present situation in Iasi, a greater understanding in a early phase that the solution not only depends on suitable tree species, but also on technical solutions being developed in order to have trees in paved environments in the future. On the basis of precipitation and temperature data, natural woodlands in north-east Romania have the potential to be a source of suitable trees for urban paved environments in the CNE region, even for a future climate if other aspects in the planning of trees

  17. Insurance and indemnification implications of future space projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, John E.

    1987-01-01

    NASA options regarding insurance and indemnification policies as they relate to NASA customers and contractors are described. The foundation for the discussion is the way in which NASA is planning to return the Space Shuttle fleet to safe flight as well as current U.S. policy concerning future uses of the Shuttle fleet. Issues discussed include: the nature of the Shuttle manifest; the policy regarding property damage or destruction; insurance against liability to third parties; the reduction of the scope of the risk to be insured; NASA as the insurer; a sharing arrangement between the user and NASA; and contractors and subcontractors involved in Shuttle operations.

  18. Atmospheric nucleation: highlights of the EUCAARI project and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.-M. Kerminen

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Within the project EUCAARI (European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions, atmospheric nucleation was studied by (i developing and testing new air ion and cluster spectrometers, (ii conducting homogeneous nucleation experiments for sulphate and organic systems in the laboratory, (iii investigating atmospheric nucleation mechanism under field conditions, and (iv applying new theoretical and modelling tools for data interpretation and development of parameterisations. The current paper provides a synthesis of the obtained results and identifies the remaining major knowledge gaps related to atmospheric nucleation. The most important technical achievement of the project was the development of new instruments for measuring sub-3 nm particle populations, along with the extensive application of these instruments in both the laboratory and the field. All the results obtained during EUCAARI indicate that sulphuric acid plays a central role in atmospheric nucleation. However, also vapours other than sulphuric acid are needed to explain the nucleation and the subsequent growth processes, at least in continental boundary layers. Candidate vapours in this respect are some organic compounds, ammonia, and especially amines. Both our field and laboratory data demonstrate that the nucleation rate scales to the first or second power of the nucleating vapour concentration(s. This agrees with the few earlier field observations, but is in stark contrast with classical thermodynamic nucleation theories. The average formation rates of 2-nm particles were found to vary by almost two orders of magnitude between the different EUCAARI sites, whereas the formation rates of charged 2-nm particles varied very little between the sites. Overall, our observations are indicative of frequent, yet moderate, ion-induced nucleation usually outweighed by much stronger neutral nucleation events in the continental lower troposphere. The most concrete

  19. Projection for new city future scenarios – A case study for Kuwait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayef Alghais

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The creation of new cities is a planning approach adopted in several regions around the world, in order to accommodate urban growth. New cities are typically constructed according to well-thought out, centralised plans in areas without any prior development. However, whether the development of these new cities is able to address existing urban issues more effectively than traditional methods such as intensification, is currently an unanswered research question. Several Arabian Gulf countries, such as Kuwait are considering the construction of new cities to address urban issues, specifically the traffic congestion and housing shortages. In Kuwait, the master plan for these construction projects was developed solely by state authorities without any public participation or urban modelling that may have provided a more well-rounded view of the potential impacts and effectiveness.This paper aims to address these research opportunities of investigating the effectiveness of new cities in addressing traffic congestion and housing shortage, as well as the potential to integrate public opinions in urban development in the form of a model. Towards that end, the study proposes an Agent Based Model (ABM that will allow simulating the population distribution and urban growth impacts of new cities in Kuwait by 2050. The methodology involves collecting primary data via interviewing the key government stakeholders of urban development and surveying the residents in order to collect the model inputs. In Kuwait's society, citizens and non-citizens form two distinct resident groups with often very diverse needs and lifestyles; hence the survey responses will differentiate between them. The data from the interviews and surveys from both resident groups will be incorporated as agent behaviours in the ABM. The simulations examine a multitude of scenarios for the new cities, involving construction delays and infrastructure project delays. The results indicate that the

  20. The GeantV project: preparing the future of simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amadio, G; Bianchini, C; Iope, R L; Apostolakis, J; Brun, R; Carminati, F; Gheata, A; Nikitina, T; Novak, M; Pokorski, W; Shadura, O; Bandieramonte, M; Bhattacharyya, A; Mohanty, A; Seghal, R; Canal, Ph; Elvira, D; Lima, G; Duhem, L; De Fine Licht, J

    2015-01-01

    Detector simulation is consuming at least half of the HEP computing cycles, and even so, experiments have to take hard decisions on what to simulate, as their needs greatly surpass the availability of computing resources. New experiments still in the design phase such as FCC, CLIC and ILC as well as upgraded versions of the existing LHC detectors will push further the simulation requirements. Since the increase in computing resources is not likely to keep pace with our needs, it is therefore necessary to explore innovative ways of speeding up simulation in order to sustain the progress of High Energy Physics. The GeantV project aims at developing a high performance detector simulation system integrating fast and full simulation that can be ported on different computing architectures, including CPU accelerators. After more than two years of R and D the project has produced a prototype capable of transporting particles in complex geometries exploiting micro-parallelism, SIMD and multithreading. Portability is obtained via C++ template techniques that allow the development of machine- independent computational kernels. A set of tables derived from Geant4 for cross sections and final states provides a realistic shower development and, having been ported into a Geant4 physics list, can be used as a basis for a direct performance comparison. (paper)

  1. Development of a database system for near-future climate change projections under the Japanese National Project SI-CAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.

    2017-12-01

    Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017

  2. Balance of plant improvements for future reactor projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollingshaus, H.

    1987-01-01

    Many studies have shown that improvements in portions of the plant other than the reactor systems can yield large cost savings during the design, construction, and operation of future reactor power plants. This portion is defined as the Balance of Plant which includes virtually everything except the equipment furnished by the Nuclear Steam Supply System manufacturer. It normally includes the erection of the entire plant including the NSSS. Cost of BOP equipment, engineering and construction work is therefore most of the cost of the plant. Improvements in the BOP have been identified that will substantially reduce nuclear plant cost and construction time while at the same time increasing availability and operability and improving safety. Improvements achieved through standardizatoin, simplification, three-dimensional (3D) computer-aided design, modular construction, innovative construction techniques, and applications for Artificial Intelligence Systems are described. (author)

  3. A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bates, Paul D.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kind, Jarl M.; Kwadijk, Jaap; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.

    2017-09-01

    Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

  4. Climate change projections: past and future mysteries of climate science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The history of climate change has been wrapped in mysteries. Some have been solved, and we await the outcome of others. The major mystery of 20th century climate was why did temperatures rise in the early part of the century, level off, and then rise rapidly again after the 1970s? It has only been in the past seven years that advances in climate modelling have allowed us to deconstruct 20th century climate to pull apart the separate influences of natural and human-caused factors. This has allowed us to understand the subtle interplay between these various influences that produced the temperature time evolution. Another mystery has involved extreme weather and climate events. Again, climate models have allowed us to quantify how the small changes in average climate translate into much larger changes of regional extremes. The biggest remaining mysteries in climate science involve the future, and how the climate will evolve over the coming century. Up until now, various scenarios postulating different possible outcomes for 21st century climate, assuming different types of human activities, have been run in the climate models to provide a wide range of possible futures. However, more recently the outlook for global warming is being framed as a combination of mitigation and adaptation. If policy actions are taken to mitigate part of the problem of global warming, then climate models must be relied on to quantify the time-evolving picture of how much regional climate change we must adapt to. Solving this mystery will be the biggest and most important challenge ever taken on by the climate modelling community

  5. Floridian heatwaves and extreme precipitation: future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavendra, Ajay; Dai, Aiguo; Milrad, Shawn M.; Cloutier-Bisbee, Shealynn R.

    2018-02-01

    Observational analysis and climate modeling efforts concur that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves will increase as the Earth's mean climate shifts towards warmer temperatures. While the impacts and mechanisms of heatwaves have been well explored, extreme temperatures over Florida are generally understudied. This paper sheds light on Floridian heatwaves by exploring 13 years of daily data from surface observations and high-resolution WRF climate simulations for the same timeframe. The characteristics of the current and future heatwaves under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario for 2070-2099 were then investigated. Results show a tripling in the frequency, and greater than a sixfold increase in the mean duration of heatwaves over Florida when the current standard of heatwaves was used. The intensity of heatwaves also increased by 4-6 °C due to the combined effects of rising mean temperatures and a 1-2 °C increase attributed to the flattening of the temperature distribution. Since Florida's atmospheric boundary layer is rich in moisture and heatwaves could further increase the moisture content in the lower troposphere, the relationship between heatwaves and extreme precipitation was also explored in both the current and future climate. As expected, rainfall during a heatwave event was anomalously low, but it quickly recovered to normal within 3 days after the passage of a heatwave. Finally, the late 21st-century climate could witness a slight decrease in the mean precipitation over Florida, accompanied by heavier heatwave-associated extreme precipitation events over central and southern Florida.

  6. Geothermal project will predetermine future of the Kosice heating plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirman, K.

    2003-01-01

    Geoterm, a.s. manager O. Halas describes economic and technical parameters of geothermal energy source by village Durkov near Kosice. It is planned to exploitate geothermal energy source for Kosicka heating plant (TEKO). Three basic variants of technical connecting to geothermal source are developed. Temperature at TEKO entrance should reach 125 degrees, annual heating energy supply will reach 2100 TJ and source output will reach 100 MWt, while admissible deviation at all indicators reaches 10%. The first geothermal energy should by supplied to TEKO in 2007. The investments overlapping 3 billions Slovak crowns are necessary to realize whole project. According to O. Halas a credit from World Bank guaranteed by state is crucial

  7. Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okjeong Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.

  8. Informational Urbanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang G. Stock

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary and future cities are often labeled as "smart cities," "ubiquitous cities," "knowledge cities" and "creative cities." Informational urbanism includes all aspects of information and knowledge with regard to urban regions. "Informational city" is an umbrella term uniting the divergent trends of information-related city research. Informational urbanism is an interdisciplinary endeavor incorporating on the one side computer science and information science and on the other side urbanism, architecture, (city economics, and (city sociology. In our research project on informational cities, we visited more than 40 metropolises and smaller towns all over the world. In this paper, we sketch the theoretical background on a journey from Max Weber to the Internet of Things, introduce our research methods, and describe main results on characteristics of informational cities as prototypical cities of the emerging knowledge society.

  9. Urban energy planning in Turku

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Christensen, Emil Maj; Große, Juliane

    prevailing urban sprawl, characterising urban development since the 1950s. The city is densifying and promoting sustainable urban develop-ment, though at a regional scale with several growth centres. Its future development is envisioned in the “Structure model 2035”, focusing on more compact urban...... development along public transport corridors. From the case report three issues arise which might be of considerable interest in a broader context of the PLEEC project: 1. Working with energy efficient regional urban structure (e.g. regarding urban sprawl) in a low density country and on a voluntary...

  10. Evaluation and financial risk management of urban renewal projects in partnership with public and private

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Hassani

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Financing plays an important role for renewal of old city building is find suitable financing plan. A proper financial management in one hand has a direct relationship with project main factors such as: time, cost and quality of the project, and on the other hand, achieving project goals requires a comprehensive insight of project, stockholders as well as other relative situation in regard with the project. Considering the complication of execution such projects and the number of shareholders, one of the best attitudes towards the project management is risk management. This research is a qualitative and practical, which reviews the effects of project management factors on financial return of urban renewal sachem. The required information gained through a survey and via questionnaire and interviews with specialists. This article first describes the public private financial partnership and then, based on the results gained from a case study done on one of the renewal schemes in Mashhad metropolitan areas. Next, it identifies and evaluates of positive and negative risks, which lead to threats and opportunities will be performed and will attempt to respond the existent risks. Finally, we provide a framework for the risk assessment of the housing units.

  11. Urbanization and Inequality/Poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brantley Liddle

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The level of world urbanization has crossed the 50% mark, and nearly all future population growth is projected to occur in cities. Cities are disproportionately wealthy, but are associated with poverty, too. Addressing the dual challenges of urbanization and poverty is key to achieving sustainable development. This paper performs cross-sectional regressions, based on Kuznets, as a starting point for understanding the relationship between urbanization and poverty/inequality indicators. Increases in gross domestic product per capita unambiguously lowered poverty and narrowed rural-urban gaps. By contrast, levels of urbanization were either unrelated to poverty/inequality indicators and measures of rural-urban gaps, or had a nonlinear effect where, initially, increases in urbanization likewise led to improvements in those areas, while at higher levels of urbanization, increases in urbanization exacerbated poverty and rural-urban gaps.

  12. Safety impacts of the I-35W improvements done under Minnesota's urban partnership agreement (UPA) project : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    As part of an Urban Partnership Agreement project, the Minnesota Department of Transportation added lanes : and began operating a priced dynamic shoulder lane (PDSL) on parts of Interstate 35W. Following the opening of : these improvements, the frequ...

  13. The impact of interventions to promote physical activity in urban green space: a systematic review and recommendations for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Ruth F; Christian, Hayley; Veitch, Jenny; Astell-Burt, Thomas; Hipp, J Aaron; Schipperijn, Jasper

    2015-01-01

    Evidence is mounting on the association between the built environment and physical activity (PA) with a call for intervention research. A broader approach which recognizes the role of supportive environments that can make healthy choices easier is required. A systematic review was undertaken to assess the effectiveness of interventions to encourage PA in urban green space. Five databases were searched independently by two reviewers using search terms relating to 'physical activity', 'urban green space' and 'intervention' in July 2014. Eligibility criteria included: (i) intervention to encourage PA in urban green space which involved either a physical change to the urban green space or a PA intervention to promote use of urban green space or a combination of both; and (ii) primary outcome of PA. Of the 2405 studies identified, 12 were included. There was some evidence (4/9 studies showed positive effect) to support built environment only interventions for encouraging use and increasing PA in urban green space. There was more promising evidence (3/3 studies showed positive effect) to support PAprograms or PA programs combined with a physical change to the built environment, for increasing urban green space use and PA of users. Recommendations for future research include the need for longer term follow-up post-intervention, adequate control groups, sufficiently powered studies, and consideration of the social environment, which was identified as a significantly under-utilized resource in this area. Interventions that involve the use of PA programs combined with a physical change to the built environment are likely to have a positive effect on PA. Robust evaluations of such interventions are urgently required. The findings provide a platform to inform the design, implementation and evaluation of future urban green space and PAintervention research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Building capacity through urban agriculture: report on the askîy project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Wanda; Vold, Lindsey

    2018-01-01

    Many North American cities have a built environment that provides access to energy-dense food and little opportunity for active living. Urban agriculture contributes to a positive environment involving food plant cultivation that includes processing, storing, distributing and composting. It is a means to increase local food production and thereby improve community health. The purpose of this study was to understand how participating in urban agriculture can help to empower young adults and build capacity for growing food in the city. This was a qualitative study of seven participants (five Indigenous and two non-Indigenous) between the ages of 19 and 29 years, engaged as interns in an urban agriculture project known as "askîy" in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada in 2015. We used a case-study design and qualitative analysis to describe the participants' experience based on the sustainable livelihoods framework. A collaborative approach had a great effect on the interns' experiences, notably the connections formed as they planned, planted, tended, harvested and sold the produce. Some of the interns changed their grocery shopping habits and began purchasing more vegetables and questioning where and how the vegetables were produced. All interns were eager to continue gardening next season, and some were planning to take their knowledge and skills back to their home reserves. Urban agriculture programs build capacity by providing skills beyond growing food. Such programs can increase local food production and improve food literacy skills, social relationships, physical activity and pride in community settings.

  15. Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Agneta; Meier, H E Markus; Ripszam, Matyas; Rowe, Owen; Wikner, Johan; Haglund, Peter; Eilola, Kari; Legrand, Catherine; Figueroa, Daniela; Paczkowska, Joanna; Lindehoff, Elin; Tysklind, Mats; Elmgren, Ragnar

    2015-06-01

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

  16. Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population Estimates, Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), Alpha Version

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Estimates consists of country-level estimates of urban, rural and total population and land area country-wide and...

  17. An Open Access future? Report from the eurocancercoms project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, R; Warden, R

    2011-01-01

    In March 2011, as part of the background research to the FP7 Eurocancercoms project, the European Association for Cancer Research (EACR) conducted an online survey of its members working in Europe to discover their experiences of and attitudes to the issues surrounding academic publishing and Open Access. This paper presents the results from this survey and compares them to the results from a much larger survey on the same topic from the Study of Open Access Publishing (SOAP). The responses from both surveys show very positive attitudes to the Open Access publishing route; perhaps the most challenging statistic from the EACR survey is that 88% of respondents believe that publicly funded research should be made available to be read and used without access barriers As a conclusion and invitation to further discussion, this paper also contributes to the debate around subscription and Open Access publishing, supporting the case for accelerating the progress towards Open Access publishing of cancer research articles as a particularly supportive way of assisting all researchers to make unhindered progress with their work. PMID:22276063

  18. Factors Influencing the Private Involvement in Urban Rail Public-Private Partnership Projects in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongjian Ke

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Private investors have been encouraged to participate in the development and operation of urban rail projects in China through Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs, given the fact that subnational governments are suffering from urgent development demands and severe fiscal pressure. However, there is no formal assessment to determine the private involvement in a PPP project. This problem is particularly critical in the sector of urban rail, in which the huge investment cannot rely on the private sector alone. This study hence aimed to uncover and identify the influencing factors. Multiple research methods, including content analysis, case study and focus group discussion were adopted to achieve the research purpose. Seven types of influencing factors were identified, including project financial model, government fiscal commitment, risk allocation, public accountability, efficiency considerations, policy and regulations, and organisational marketing strategies. The findings add to the current knowledge base by uncovering the drivers behind private involvement in a PPP project. They are also beneficial for industry practitioners as a basis/checklist to determine the private involvement.

  19. Adapting urban land use in a time of climate change; Optimising future land-use patterns to decrease flood risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, E.S.; Koomen, E.; Lal, R.; Augustin, B.

    2012-01-01

    It is increasingly acknowledged that a careful planning of urban areas is needed to cope with the negative effects of future climate changes. The planning process calls for fi nding a balance between various ecosystem services, such as, water and air purifi cation, the regulation of rainfall, the

  20. [Gdansk HIV-AIDS project, yesterday, today and future].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielińska, W

    1995-09-01

    Medical care project for HIV positive and AIDS patients in Gdańsk voivodship was established in 1988 in the Clinic for Infectious Diseases of Gdańsk Medical University. The aim of this modern and multidirectional program was to provide full medical care for HIV/AIDS patients and introduce effective prophylaxis against spread of HIV infection. According to the project-clinical ward, outpatient clinic for HIV positive and AIDS patients, diagnostic and laboratory units, were established. Close cooperation including specialistic and general medical care, was set with detoxication ward, rehabilitation centers for drug addicts, prison medical services and the Korczak Orphanage. Education of medical staff and some social groups was provided (teachers, teenagers of secondary schools, journalists, police employees). Clinical ward for HIV positive patients who are in need of inpatient medical care is localized in the Clinic for Infectious Diseases of Gdańsk Medical University. The ward has 16 double - bed Melcer's boxes which are used for other HIV/AIDS patients according to present needs. Free beds are used for HIV negative patients. HIV/AIDS Outpatient Clinic is localized in Venerologic Outpatient Unit. This was because of some psychological, social, professional and organization aspects. Outpatient Clinic staff is responsible for first patients' examination. Serological diagnostics of HIV infection is follow up for everyone (anonymous testing is possible); testing for STD is available also. Diagnostic laboratory base for clinical ward and other units are the laboratories of Gdańsk Voivodship Hospital for Infectious Diseases. Clinic for Infectious Diseases supervises all co-operating units. These are the following: 10-beds detoxication ward for drug addicts in Psychiatric - Neurological Hospital "Srebrzysko", 70-80 places in rehabilitation centers for drug addicts in Zapowiednik and Smazyno, remand prison ward for HIV positive patients (this is the first ward

  1. Value generation of future CSP projects in North Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kost, Christoph; Engelken, Maximilian; Schlegl, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses the value generation potential for local and international industry in different development scenarios of the concentrating solar power (CSP) market in North Africa until 2030. It analyzes the economic impact resulting from the participation of North African and European companies during construction and operation of CSP plants. The assessment is based on a self-developed solar technologies market development model (STMD) that includes economic and technical requirements and constraints for the creation of a local CSP market. In-depth interviews with industry stakeholders provide specific input, validate the calculations and complement the quantitative model results and conclusions. Long-term potential for locally generated revenues from CSP plant construction are modeled and lead to a share of local revenues of up to 60%. Potential market size of solar power plants in North Africa could reach total revenues of 120 Billion euros and thus demand for components and services contribute to national gross domestic products significantly. Recommendations are given for regional industry cooperation and policy actions for the support of local and international CSP industry in North Africa in order to improve the investment environment and growth of renewable energies in the region. - Highlights: ►New economic model to evaluate value generation of CSP take-off in North Africa. ►CSP components are assessed regarding their potentials to be produced locally. ►Potential for locally generated revenues of CSP plants: 60% of total value. ►Socio-economic impacts of RE projects become more relevant to investment decisions.

  2. Role and future subjects of support project 'research activity on radiation etc. by high school students'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iimoto, Takeshi; Fujimoto, Noboru; Nakamura, Takashi

    2014-01-01

    This is a report of the project of MEXT(The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) to support high school students researching radiation etc. This subject research consists of an exchange meeting, independence research, and a presentation meeting of the results. Media introduced the project and this was a very reputable project. However, regrettably this support project was broken off in the business year of 2012. In this document, the outline of the support project for seven years is introduced and the possibility of future deployment is discussed. (author)

  3. The impact of ageing and changing utilization patterns on future cardiovascular drug expenditure: a pharmacoepidemiological projection approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kildemoes, Helle Wallach; Andersen, Morten; Støvring, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure.......To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure....

  4. Futures project anticipates changes and challenges facing forests of the northern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen R. Shifley; W. Keith Moser; Michael E. Goerndt; Nianfu Song; Mark D. Nelson; David J. Nowak; Patrick D. Miles; Brett J. Butler; Ryan D. DeSantis; Francisco X. Aguilar; Brian G. Tavernia

    2014-01-01

    The Northern Forest Futures Project aims to reveal how today's trends and choices are likely to change the future forest landscape in the northeastern and midwestern United States. The research is focused on the 20-state quadrant bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri, and Minnesota. This area, which encompasses most of the Central Hardwood Forest region, is the...

  5. 'Solurban' project - Solar utilisation potential of urban sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, D.; Scartezzini, J.-L.; Montavon, M. [Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL), Laboratoire d' Energie Solaire et de Physique du Batiment (LESO-PB), Lausanne (Switzerland); Compagnon, R. [Ecole d' ingenieurs et d' architectes de Fribourg (EIAF), University of Applied Sciences of Western Switzerland (HES-SO), Fribourg (Switzerland)

    2005-07-01

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents the results of a project that examined three urban locations in Switzerland with respect to their potentials for using solar energy and daylight to reduce energy demands in the lighting, heating and hot-water generation areas. The three urban areas examined included the Matthaeus district in Basle with its older residential apartment buildings, the Bellevaux residential district of Lausanne and the Meyrin district in Geneva - a nineteen-sixties satellite town. The calculation methodology and the three-dimensional digital models used are discussed. The results, including radiation availability and sky-access are discussed. Appropriate active and passive solar technologies are reviewed.

  6. Detailed climate-change projections for urban land-use change and green-house gas increases for Belgium with COSMO-CLM coupled to TERRA_URB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wouters, Hendrik; Vanden Broucke, Sam; van Lipzig, Nicole; Demuzere, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    Recent research clearly show that climate modelling at high resolution - which resolve the deep convection, the detailed orography and land-use including urbanization - leads to better modelling performance with respect to temperatures, the boundary-layer, clouds and precipitation. The increasing computational power enables the climate research community to address climate-change projections with higher accuracy and much more detail. In the framework of the CORDEX.be project aiming for coherent high-resolution micro-ensemble projections for Belgium employing different GCMs and RCMs, the KU Leuven contributes by means of the downscaling of EC-EARTH global climate model projections (provided by the Royal Meteorological Institute of the Netherlands) to the Belgian domain. The downscaling is obtained with regional climate simulations at 12.5km resolution over Europe (CORDEX-EU domain) and at 2.8km resolution over Belgium (CORDEX.be domain) using COSMO-CLM coupled to urban land-surface parametrization TERRA_URB. This is done for the present-day (1975-2005) and future (2040 → 2070 and 2070 → 2100). In these high-resolution runs, both GHG changes (in accordance to RCP8.5) and urban land-use changes (in accordance to a business-as-usual urban expansion scenario) are taken into account. Based on these simulations, it is shown how climate-change statistics are modified when going from coarse resolution modelling to high-resolution modelling. The climate-change statistics of particular interest are the changes in number of extreme precipitation events and extreme heat waves in cities. Hereby, it is futher investigated for the robustness of the signal change between the course and high-resolution and whether a (statistical) translation is possible. The different simulations also allow to address the relative impact and synergy between the urban expansion and increased GHG on the climate-change statistics. Hereby, it is investigated for which climate-change statistics the

  7. The EVNATURB project: toward an operational platform to assess Blue Green Solutions eco-systemic services in urban environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertzer, D. J. M.; Versini, P. A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.

    2017-12-01

    Urban areas are facing an expected increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change. Combined with unsustainable urbanization, this should exacerbate the environmental consequences related to the water cycle as stormwater management issues, urban heat island increase and biodiversity degradation. Blue Green Solutions (BGS), such as green roofs, vegetated swales or urban ponds, appear to be particularly efficient to reduce the potential impact of new and existing urban developments with respect to these issues. Based on this statement, the French ANR EVNATURB project aims to develop a platform to assess the eco-systemic services provided by BGS and related with the previously mentioned issues. By proposing a multi-disciplinary consortium coupling monitoring, modelling and prospecting, it attempts to tackle several scientific issues currently limiting BGS wide implementation. Based on high resolution monitored sites and modelling tools, space-time variability of the related physical processes will be studied over a wide range of scales (from the material to the district scale), as well as local social-environmental stakes and constraints, to better consider the complexity of the urban environment. The EVNATURB platform developed during the project is intended for every stakeholder involved in urban development projects (planners, architects, engineering and environmental certification companies…) and will help them to implement BGS and evaluate which ones are the most appropriate for a particular project depending on its environmental objectives and constraints, and particularly for obtaining environmental certification.

  8. Virtual Mockup test based on computational science and engineering. Near future technology projected by JSPS-RFTFADVENTURE project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshimura, Shinobu

    2001-01-01

    The ADVENTURE project began on August, 1997, as a project in the computational science' field of JSPS-RFTFADVENTURE project, and is progressed as five year project. In this project, by using versatile parallel computer environment such as PC cluster, super parallel computer, and so on , to solve an arbitrary shape of actual dynamical equation by using 10 to 100 million freedom class mode under maintaining a general use analytical capacity agreeable with present general use computational mechanics system, further development of a large-scale parallel computational mechanics system (ADVENTURE system) capable of carrying out an optimization design on shapes, physical properties, loading conditions, and so on is performed. Here was scoped, after outlining on background of R and D on ADVENTURE system and its features, on near future virtual mockup test forecast from it. (G.K.)

  9. Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

    2016-12-01

    Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

  10. The application of isotope techniques to the assessment of aquifer systems in major urban areas. Final report of a co-ordinated research project 1997-2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-07-01

    Aquifer systems in most urban areas have been impacted to varying degrees by sustained exploitation and the future availability of water is being threatened by depleting aquifers or water quality degradation. Improved methods for the assessment and management of groundwater resources in major urban areas, therefore, are issues of high priority for most countries. The IAEA has, over last four decades, co-ordinated the development, adaptation, and testing of isotope techniques for hydrological applications. A number of techniques and methodologies that are now established for water resources management are potentially useful for characterizing the short and long term changes resulting from the extensive use of aquifers in and near urban areas. The application of isotope techniques in urban hydrology was the focus of this co-ordinated research project (CRP). This report provides the final results of the CRP, and is expected to be of interest to scientists, managers and planners involved in water resources assessment in urban areas. This publication contains seven individual reports, each of them was indexed separately

  11. Baseline options and greenhouse gas emission reduction of clean development mechanism project in urban solid waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiramatsu, Ai; Hanaki, K. [Department of Urban Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656 (Japan); Aramaki, T. [Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904(Japan)

    2003-07-01

    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was adopted in the Kyoto Protocol as a flexibility mechanism to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has been started with such projects as improving efficiency of individual technology. Although applying various countermeasures to urban areas has significant potentials for reducing GHGs, these countermeasures have not been proposed as CDM projects in the practical stage. A CDM project needs to be validated that it will reduce GHGs additionally compared with a baseline, that is, a predictive value of GHG emissions in the absence of the project. This study examined the introduction of solid waste incineration with electricity generation into three different cities, A, B and C. The main solid waste treatment and the main fuel source are landfill and coal, respectively, in City A, incineration and natural gas in City B, and landfill and hydro in City C. GHG emission reductions of each city under several baseline options assumed here were evaluated. Even if the same technology is introduced, the emission reduction greatly varies according to the current condition and the future plan of the city: 1043-1406 kg CO2/t of waste in City A, 198-580 kg CO2/t in City B, and wide range of zero to over 1000 kg CO2/t in City C. Baseline options also cause significant difference in the emission reduction even in the same city (City C). Incinerating solid waste after removing plastics by source separation in City B increased GHG emission reduction potential up to 730-900 kg CO2/t, which enhances the effectiveness as a CDM project.

  12. Human–environment interactions in urban green spaces — A systematic review of contemporary issues and prospects for future research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabisch, Nadja; Qureshi, Salman; Haase, Dagmar

    2015-01-01

    Scientific papers on landscape planning underline the importance of maintaining and developing green spaces because of their multiple environmental and social benefits for city residents. However, a general understanding of contemporary human–environment interaction issues in urban green space is still incomplete and lacks orientation for urban planners. This review examines 219 publications to (1) provide an overview of the current state of research on the relationship between humans and urban green space, (2) group the different research approaches by identifying the main research areas, methods, and target groups, and (3) highlight important future prospects in urban green space research. - Highlights: • Reviewed literature on urban green pins down a dearth of comparative studies. • Case studies in Africa and Russia are marginalized – the Europe and US dominate. • Questionnaires are used as major tool followed by GIS and quantitative approaches. • Developing countries should contribute in building an urban green space agenda. • Interdisciplinary, adaptable and pluralistic approaches can satiate a knowledge gap

  13. Human–environment interactions in urban green spaces — A systematic review of contemporary issues and prospects for future research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabisch, Nadja, E-mail: nadja.kabisch@geo.hu-berlin.de [Institute of Geography, Humboldt-University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin (Germany); Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research — UFZ, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Qureshi, Salman [Institute of Geography, Humboldt-University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin (Germany); School of Architecture, Birmingham Institute of Art and Design, Birmingham City University, The Parkside Building, 5 Cardigan Street, Birmingham B4 7BD (United Kingdom); Haase, Dagmar [Institute of Geography, Humboldt-University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin (Germany); Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research — UFZ, 04318 Leipzig (Germany)

    2015-01-15

    Scientific papers on landscape planning underline the importance of maintaining and developing green spaces because of their multiple environmental and social benefits for city residents. However, a general understanding of contemporary human–environment interaction issues in urban green space is still incomplete and lacks orientation for urban planners. This review examines 219 publications to (1) provide an overview of the current state of research on the relationship between humans and urban green space, (2) group the different research approaches by identifying the main research areas, methods, and target groups, and (3) highlight important future prospects in urban green space research. - Highlights: • Reviewed literature on urban green pins down a dearth of comparative studies. • Case studies in Africa and Russia are marginalized – the Europe and US dominate. • Questionnaires are used as major tool followed by GIS and quantitative approaches. • Developing countries should contribute in building an urban green space agenda. • Interdisciplinary, adaptable and pluralistic approaches can satiate a knowledge gap.

  14. Present practice and future prospect of rooftop farming in Dhaka city: A step towards urban sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mastura Safayet

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh is one of the most populated megacity in the world and the population growth in this city is extremely high. To support growing food demand of increasing population, food supply should be secure and sustainable. On the other hand, with the pace of urbanization built-up areas are increasing; hence supply of roof space is also increasing. Rooftop farming can provide solution to increased food demand and also can promote a sustainable and livable city. Local fresh and safe food can be ensured through roof gardens in Dhaka city. The aim of the study is to explore the present practice and challenges of rooftop farming that was encountered by practitioners. Mirpur and Mohammadpur areas have been selected as study areas. Two practitioners are interviewed and 60 non-practitioners are surveyed. Results show that rooftop farming can support environment by improving air quality, reducing carbon in the atmosphere and can benefit society by reducing storm water management cost. One of the significant findings from the non-practitioner survey is that maximum people are willing to practice rooftop farming and want to provide at least 50% of roof space for rooftop farming. Finally some recommendations have been suggested to improve rooftop farming practice and encourage more people to practice rooftop farming in future.

  15. Project report about the motives of the future law project 'security and nuclear clearness'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-11-01

    This project aims to prevent the hazards in relation with nuclear activities for man and his environment, as well to reinforce information on risks associated to these activities and on measures taken to avoid them. (N.C.)

  16. Projecting the self into the future in individuals with schizophrenia: a preliminary cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffard, Stéphane; Bortolon, Catherine; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Gardes, Jeanne; Gely-Nargeot, Marie-Christine; Capdevielle, Delphine; Van der Linden, Martial

    2016-07-01

    The ability to project oneself into the future contributes to development and maintenance of a coherent sense of identity. If recent research has revealed that schizophrenia is associated with difficulties envisioning the future, little is known about patients' future self-representations. In this study, 27 participants with schizophrenia and 26 healthy controls were asked to simulate mental representations of plausible and highly significant future events (self-defining future projections, SDFPs) that they anticipate to happen in their personal future. Main results showed that schizophrenia patients had difficulties in reflecting on the broader meaning and implications of imagined future events. In addition, and contrary to our hypothesis, a large majority of SDFPs in schizophrenia patients were positive events, including achievements, relationship, and leisure contents. Interestingly, patients and controls did not differ on the perceived probability that these events will occur in the future. Our results suggest that schizophrenia patients have an exaggerated positive perception of their future selves. Together, these findings lend support to the idea that past and future self-defining representations have both similar and distinct characteristics in schizophrenia.

  17. Calculation Method for the Projection of Future Spent Nuclear Fuel Discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    B. McLeod

    2002-01-01

    This report describes the calculation method developed for the projection of future utility spent nuclear fuel (SNF) discharges in regard to their timing, quantity, burnup, and initial enrichment. This projection method complements the utility-supplied RW-859 data on historic discharges and short-term projections of SNF discharges by providing long-term projections that complete the total life cycle of discharges for each of the current U.S. nuclear power reactors. The method was initially developed in mid-1999 to update the SNF discharge projection associated with the 1995 RW-859 utility survey (CRWMS M and O 1996). and was further developed as described in Rev. 00 of this report (CRWMS M and O 2001a). Primary input to the projection of SNF discharges is the utility projection of the next five discharges from each nuclear unit, which is provided via the revised final version of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1998 RW-859 utility survey (EIA 2000a). The projection calculation method is implemented via a set of Excel 97 spreadsheets. These calculations provide the interface between receipt of the utility five-discharge projections that are provided in the RW-859 survey, and the delivery of projected life-cycle SNF discharge quantities and characteristics in the format requisite for performing logistics analysis to support design of the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS). Calculation method improvements described in this report include the addition of a reactor-specific maximum enrichment-based discharge burnup limit. This limit is the consequence of the enrichment limit, currently 5 percent. which is imposed as a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) license condition on nuclear fuel fabrication plants. In addition, the calculation method now includes the capability for projecting future nuclear plant power upratings, consistent with many such recent plant uprates and the prospect of additional future uprates. Finally. this report

  18. Large-Scale Urban Projects, Production of Space and Neo-liberal Hegemony: A Comparative Study of Izmir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet PENPECİOĞLU

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available With the rise of neo-liberalism, large-scale urban projects (LDPs have become a powerful mechanism of urban policy. Creating spaces of neo-liberal urbanization such as central business districts, tourism centers, gated residences and shopping malls, LDPs play a role not only in the reproduction of capital accumulation relations but also in the shift of urban political priorities towards the construction of neo-liberal hegemony. The construction of neo-liberal hegemony and the role played by LDPs in this process could not only be investigated by the analysis of capital accumulation. For such an investigation; the role of state and civil society actors in LDPs, their collaborative and conflictual relationships should be researched and their functions in hegemony should be revealed. In the case of Izmir’s two LDPs, namely the New City Center (NCC and Inciraltı Tourism Center (ITC projects, this study analyzes the relationship between the production of space and neo-liberal hegemony. In the NCC project, local governments, investors, local capital organizations and professional chambers collaborated and disseminated hegemonic discourse, which provided social support for the project. Through these relationships and discourses, the NCC project has become a hegemonic project for producing space and constructed neo-liberal hegemony over urban political priorities. In contrast to the NCC project, the ITC project saw no collaboration between state and organized civil society actors. The social opposition against the ITC project, initiated by professional chambers, has brought legal action against the ITC development plans in order to prevent their implementation. As a result, the ITC project did not acquire the consent of organized social groups and failed to become a hegemonic project for producing space.

  19. UPDATING THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF PROJECT EDUCATION TECHNOLOGY IN FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ VOCAL AND CHORAL TRAINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Haiye

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to characterizing features of implementing project technology into future music teachers’ vocal and choral training. The analysis of scientific papers of outstanding scientists in philosophy, psychology, and art education, which deal with modern directions of using project technology, highlight its role in art education process. A methodological base is supported by considering contemporary scientific researches, in particular the theory and methodology of musical studies in accordance with forming students’ independence in the process of solving educational problems by means of project technology; developing principles of students’ professional training optimization on the basis of project activity; innovative development of future music teachers’ professional training that gives to the presented material novelty and presentable appearance. Studying future music teachers’ vocal and choral training as a process of constructing that has a special purpose of improving the quality descriptions of educational vocal and choral collective sound functioning, the author of the article discloses the basic principles of implementing project technology into future music teachers’ vocal and choral training. The author of the article pays the special attention to revealing specific features and maintenance of project technology in vocal and choral training of future leaders of child's art groups. An emphasis is made on the following basic factors that influence development of students’ creative individuality: constructing projects of their own becoming; setting aims, tasks, strategies and facilities of vocal and choral work; directing to the result; independent creative activity; presentation, reflection and correction of a project. On the basis of the obtained data the following principles of project technology are put forward in future music teachers’ vocal and choral training: principle of independence; principle of

  20. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  1. Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

  2. Comparison of Surface and Column Variations of CO2 Over Urban Areas for Future Active Remote CO2 Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Yonghoon; Yang, Melissa; Kooi, Susan; Browell, Edward

    2015-01-01

    High resolution in-situ CO2 measurements were recorded onboard the NASA P-3B during the DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) Field Campaign, to investigate the ability of space-based observations to accurately assess near surface conditions related to air quality. This campaign includes, Washington DC/Baltimore, MD (July 2011), San Joaquin Valley, CA (January - February 2013), Houston, TX (September 2013), and Denver, CO (July-August 2014). Each of these campaigns consisted of missed approaches and approximately two hundred vertical soundings of CO2 within the lower troposphere (surface to about 5 km). In this study, surface (0 - 1 km) and column-averaged (0 - 3.5 km) CO2 mixing ratio values from the vertical soundings in the four geographically different urban areas are used to investigate the temporal and spatial variability of CO2 within the different urban atmospheric emission environments. Tracers such as CO, CH2O, NOx, and NMHCs are used to identify the source of CO2 variations in the urban sites. Additionally, we apply nominal CO2 column weighting functions for potential future active remote CO2 sensors operating in the 1.57-microns and 2.05-microns measurement regions to convert the in situ CO2 vertical mixing ratio profiles to variations in CO2 column optical depths, which is what the active remote sensors actually measure. Using statistics calculated from the optical depths at each urban site measured during the DISCOVER-AQ field campaign and for each nominal weighting function, we investigate the natural variability of CO2 columns in the lower troposphere; relate the CO2 column variability to the urban surface emissions; and show the measurement requirements for the future ASCENDS (Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons) in the continental U.S. urban areas.

  3. Rainwater, a tool for development and maintenance of nature in the city - Three development projects illustrating the water as a support of natural processes in urban environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Piel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The problems of manage urban stormwater are gradually taken into account by planners and landscapers. If the ecological potential of the temporary retention techniques is correctly operated in peri-urban areas, it is too little valued in a dense urban environment. Dense urban environment where the demand of nature is becoming stronger.Presented three projects in dense urban areas, where rainwater is treated as support nature, and as a factor in natural processes.These projects also aim to show how the problem of flood is a support social, legal, and financial, to implement these natural processes, so necessary in urban areas.

  4. Environmental Accounting for the Urban Water System: Past, Present and Future - Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    The modern urban water system (UWS), or the provision of supply, sanitation and drainage services in an urban context, represents the ever-evolving physical manifestation of society’s propensity to solve pressing water problems. While solutions generally entail immediate be...

  5. Best urban water management practices to prevent waterborne infectious diseases under current and future scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Man-van der Vliet, H.

    2014-01-01

    Water in urban areas may pose a public health risk when people are exposed to urban water, because it may contain pathogens. These pathogens may originate from fecal bird droppings, runoff from paved surfaces (including e.g. dog feces), growth of micro-organisms in water and in some cases discharges

  6. Alien plants in urban nature reserves: from red-list species to future invaders?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vojtěch Jarošik

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Urban reserves, as other protected areas, are aimed at preserving species richness but the conservation effort in these protected areas is complicated by a high proportion of alien species. We examined which environmental factors determine the representation of alien species in 48 city reserves of Prague, Czech Republic, distinguishing between archaeophytes, i.e. alien species introduced since the beginning of Neolithic agriculture up to 1500 A. D., and neophytes, i.e. modern invaders introduced after that date, with the former group separately analysed for endangered archaeophytes (listed as C1 and C2 categories on national red list. Archaeophytes responded positively to the extent of arable land that was in place at the time of the reserve establishment, and to a low altitudinal range. Neophytes, beside soil properties responded to recent human activities proxied by current proportion of built-up area in the reserves. Endangered archaeophytes, besides the same affinity for past arable land as other archaeophytes, were supported by the presence of current wasteland habitats in the reserve. This suggests that for endangered archaeophytes it might have been difficult to adapt to changing agricultural practices, and ruderal wasteland might act as a refugium for them. From the viewpoint of conservation, ruderal habitats of nature reserves thus can be more important than was previously though. Forty-six of the 155 neophytes recorded in the reserves are classified as invasive. The reserves thus harbour 67% of the 69 invasive neophytes recorded in the country, and particularly warning is that among the most invasive species are many shrubs and trees, a life form that is known to account for widespread invasions with high impacts. Our results thus strongly suggest that in Prague nature reserves there is a warning potential for future invasions.

  7. The German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reubelt, Tilo; Sneeuw, Nico; Fichter, Walter; Müller, Jürgen

    2010-05-01

    Within the German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions", funded by the Geotechnologies programme of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, options and concepts for future satellite missions for precise (time-variable) gravity field recovery are investigated. The project team is composed of members from science and industry, bringing together experts in geodesy, satellite systems, metrology, sensor technology and control systems. The majority of team members already contributed to former gravity missions. The composition of the team guarantees that not only geodetic aspects and objectives are investigated, but also technological and financial constraints are considered. Conversely, satellite, sensor and system concepts are developed and improved in a direct exchange with geodetic and scientific claims. The project aims to develop concepts for both near and mid-term future satellite missions, taking into account e.g. advanced satellite formations and constellations, improved orbit design, innovative metrology and sensor systems and advances in satellite systems.

  8. Building for the future: influence of housing on intelligence quotients of children in an urban slum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhary, R; Sharma, Abhinav; Agarwal, Kishore S; Kumar, Amod; Sreenivas, V; Puliyel, Jacob M

    2002-12-01

    Interventions on behalf of the marginalized in society can assume many formats. In an urban slum the Government of Delhi built one-room houses for some of the residents in what is termed a 'plot area'. Not all residents could be accommodated in the project and the remainder continued to live next door in shanty houses of the slum. Nineteen years later, young children who had migrated with their parents, have grown up and have children of their own. We looked at the development of the children living in the two types of accommodation. A total of 373 children were studied. All children (n = 200) between the ages of 3.5 and 5.5 years in a cluster of five residential blocks in the plot area were studied. As a control, children in two large clusters of shanty houses (n = 173) were also studied. For development assessment the Central Institute of Education (CIE) Test was performed. This is an Indian adaptation of the Standford-Binet Test. Multiple regression analysis was utilized to determine the factors that influenced IQ most. The mean IQ of the children in the plot area was 92.5 (s.d. 13.38) and in the shanty houses 89.5 (s.d. 12.9) (p = 0.05). Analysis showed that the most significant factors affecting IQ were malnutrition in the first 6 months of life and attendance of the child at pre-school. For nutrition in the first 6 months, there was no difference between the groups. For attendance at pre-school, 110 of 200 in the plot area and 47 of 173 in the shanty houses were attending pre-school (p < 0.01). We find that children living in the permanent houses had a significantly better IQ than those in shanty houses. A review of the literature did not reveal a comparable study.

  9. Siim Nestor soovitab : Õed imelised regulaarsel reg-ööl. Diskoteek. Futurism. Urban Nature / Siim Nestor

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Nestor, Siim, 1974-

    2002-01-01

    Soome rege-DJtarid Miracle Twins Von Krahli baaris reggae-peol Bashment 19. aprillil. Lätlased DJd AG ja RAITIS ja Riga Woodoo Band külas Tartus. 80ndate stiilikas Futurism Nightmanis Brother Widenski juhtimisel, külla tuleb Helsingi DJ Aslak. Pidustustel Urban Nature Tallinna Botaanikaaia palmimajas 19. aprillil esineb artist Galaktlan, kes andis äsja välja debüütplaadi "Sinine platoo"

  10. Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

    2018-01-01

    Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

  11. Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

    2007-09-01

    This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

  12. New urban and regional management instruments: Santo André and the Tamanduateí axis project case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margarida Nobue Sakata

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available From the end of twenty century, the crisis that came with to the end of the intensive capitalism system have been motivated much political and economical transformation at global scale. The post war breakdown reconstruction, oil crisis, the advances in informatics and telecommunication caused changes in the regional structure of many countries in the world. The movement of manufacturing activities of the old industrial metropolis occasioned the decadence and ascension of different urban regions. As an answer to these transformations, the paradigm of urban politics of many cities has been changed with the dismantling of the traditional planning system and accepting new management and urban intervention forms, as strategic planning, big urban projects, urban legislation flexibility, city marketing, etc. Recently many authors have done a critical review of this new urban management. This present work analyses the transformations suffered by Santo André, municipality of São Paulo metropolitan region and the implementation of Tamanduateí Axis Project, analyzing them in this context and these new urban management forms, evaluating its impacts and results.

  13. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-01-01

    Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

  14. Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-01

    This report is the first in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. More specifically, the EFS is designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of widespread electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe.

  15. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  16. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

  17. Present status and future project on hadron physics with KEK proton synchrotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masaike, Akira

    1984-01-01

    Recent experimental results on hadron physics using a 12 GeV proton synchrotron at KEK are presented. Several future projects which have been proposed as a post-shutdown program from 1985 including hypernuclear physics, physics with polarized beam and heavy ion beam are also reported. (author)

  18. History of optical theory of reflecting telescopes and implications for future projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Raymond N.

    1997-03-01

    This contribution, The History of Optical Theory of Reflecting Telescopes and Implications for Future Projects, is a shortened form of the Karl Schwarzschild lecture given in Bochum in September 1993. Some material has been added from an invited paper given in Padua in December 1992. For a full account, with figures and tables, the reader is referred to these two papers.

  19. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kunst, Anton E.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild

  20. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Klijs (Bart); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); A.E. Kunst (Anton)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractObjective Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This paper tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated to proximity to death

  1. Projecting future mortality in the Netherlands taking into account mortality delay and smoking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, F.; de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of future mortality often prove inaccurate as conventional extrapolative mortality projection methods do not capture the impact of smoking nor the mortality delay: the shift in the age-at-death distribution towards older ages. The added value of incorporating information on smoking into

  2. Innovation projects and visions on the future : Ambition and commitment in the Agropark case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoes, Anne Charlotte; Regeer, Barbara; Zweekhorst, Marjolein

    2012-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Dutch agricultural policy focuses on changing the agricultural sector into a more sustainable sector. In this article we explore an Agropark visioning initiative and four Agropark innovation projects to provide further understanding in how visions on the future influence innovation

  3. Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.

    2013-01-01

    Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

  4. Planned Change in Future Models of Project Follow Through: A Concept Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpkins, Edward; Brown, Asa

    The three chapters included in this paper establish a basis for organizing future implementations of Project Follow Through. Specifically, chapter 1 identifies four planning objectives for coordinating such programs. Emphasis is given to the need to focus on one fundamental, pervasive variable possibly accounting for program success: time…

  5. Outlook for coastal plain forests: a subregional report from the Southern Forest Futures Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kier Klepzig; Richard Shelfer; Zanethia Choice

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Coastal Plain consists of seven sections: the Northern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic, Peninsular Florida, Southern Gulf, Middle Gulf-East, Middle Gulf-West, and Western Gulf. It covers a large area, consists of a diverse array of habitats, and supports a diverse array of uses. This report presents forecasts from the Southern Forest Futures Project that are...

  6. On an interesting project with hybrid ventilation in an urban environment with heavy traffic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mysen, Mads

    2001-01-01

    Kampen school, built in 1888, is located centrally in Oslo, Norway. Problematic indoor climate made it necessary to rehabilitate the school. This rehabilitation project is used as a 'case' in a large international research project that deals with energy-efficient rehabilitation of educational buildings. The project aims to (1) demonstrate that schools can be rehabilitated by means of ventilation systems that exploit the natural driving forces without this entailing considerable extra costs, (2) demonstrate that natural sunlight can be utilized as an energy-conserving measure at the same time as human need for daylight is satisfied, (3) demonstrate the importance of optimum selection of armatures and light sources with respect to energy and comfort, (4) demonstrate that these solutions imply reduced energy and maintenance costs such as to be profitable in a life-cycle perspective, (5) demonstrate that these solutions can inspire learning even in urban environments, and (6) demonstrate and exploit the potential for reduced energy consumption by demand-controlled ventilation and electric lighting according to area, natural driving forces and availability of daylight

  7. [The Ineq-Cities research project on urban health inequalities: knowledge dissemination and transfer in Spain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camprubí, Lluís; Díez, Èlia; Morrison, Joana; Borrell, Carme

    2014-01-01

    The Ineq-Cities project analyzed inequalities in mortality in small areas and described interventions to reduce inequalities in health in 16 European cities. This field note describes the dissemination of the project in Spain. In accordance with the recommendations of the project, the objective was to translate relevant results to key stakeholders - mainly technical staff, municipal officers and local social agents - and to provide an introduction to urban inequalities in health and strategies to address them. Twenty-four workshops were given, attended by more than 350 professionals from 92 municipalities. Knowledge dissemination consisted of the publication of a short book on inequalities in health and the approach to this problem in cities and three articles in nonspecialized media, a proposal for a municipal motion, and knowledge dissemination activities in social networks. Users rated these activities highly and stressed the need to systematize these products. This process may have contributed to the inclusion of health inequalities in the political agenda and to the training of officers to correct them. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  8. Future Projection of Droughts over South Korea Using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung Sik Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, a method widely used to analyze droughts related to climate change, does not consider variables related to temperature and is limited because it cannot consider changes in hydrological balance, such as evapotranspiration from climate change. If we were to consider only the future increase in precipitation from climate change, droughts may decrease. However, because usable water can diminish from an increase in evapotranspiration, it is important to research on projected droughts considering the amount of evapotranspiration along with projecting and evaluating potential droughts considering the impact of climate change. As such, this study evaluated the occurrence of droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI as a newly conceptualized drought index that is similar to SPI but includes the temperature variability. We extracted simulated future precipitation and temperature data (2011 - 2099 from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP climate change scenario of IPCC AR5 to evaluate the impact of future climate change on the occurrence of droughts of South Korea. We analyzed the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation of meteorological observatories nationwide. In addition, we calculated the SPEI related to drought in the process to evaluate the future occurrence of droughts of South Korea. To confirm validity of SPEI results, extreme indices were analyzed. This resulted in the notion that as we go further into the future, the precipitation increases. But because of an increase in evapotranspiration also from a rise in temperature and continued dryness, the severity of droughts is projected to exacerbate.

  9. Public participation and satisfaction in urban regeneration projects in Tanzania: The case of Kariakoo, Dar es Salaam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Paulo Layson

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on predictions, almost 60% of the world population will be living in cities by 2030. Tanzania is urbanizing at a rapid rate of 4.7%, and 30% of the total population lives in urban areas. Urban regeneration projects in developing countries are facing various challenges. Moreover, the issue of challenges of community participation and satisfaction in regeneration projects is less documented. In recent decades, a bottom-up planning approach has been advocated as an approach for sustainable development planning whereby local actors participate in decision-making. But how top-down planning meets bottom-up planning is less documented, as well as the correlation between participation and satisfaction. This is due to the fact that zoning system has been dominating in urban planning, where experts zone areas according to land uses with an input from the community. In this research community participation, public satisfaction in urban regeneration projects was investigated. The research was based on Kariakoo, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The research explored public perceptions on satisfaction and the relationship between community participation and community satisfaction in urban regeneration projects. 292 respondents were interviewed on their perceptions on the redevelopment satisfaction. The results were analyzed using SPSS and tabulated in a form of tables, figures, and charts. The results revealed that it is not necessary that the more the participation the more the satisfaction, hence the more the quality of the service/plan. This means that several factors have an influence on satisfaction of urban redevelopment such as gender, level of education, age, time lived or stayed in the area, as well as the level of participation.

  10. Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zongci Zhao

    2011-01-01

    @@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

  11. Towards a sustainable urban transition?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lissandrello, Enza; Cappellaro, Francesca

    2014-01-01

    Never as today the discourse about uncertainty is permeating and affecting traditional paradigms of urban planning. Predictable futures are no longer possible, sufficient to understand it in the long term and adequate. If the future looks uncertain, the debate on sustainable development has...... contributed to render the situation even more complex and planning practitioners are now navigating between an unclear perception of future risks and the hope for results and visions for long-term perspectives of urban futures. Among scholars engaged in the study of sustainable transitions in urban areas......, the ‘systeminc thinking’ has irrupted in town. A new vocabulary of ‘the city’ as a systemic and functional hub of technology, economy, and social organization has replaced an integral view on the urban complexity. This article returns back to the urban as an integral project. It aims to contribute understanding...

  12. Methodical bases of selection and evaluation of the effectiveness of the projects of the urban territory renovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizova, Evgeniya; Zhutaeva, Evgeniya; Chugunov, Andrei

    2018-03-01

    The article highlights features of processes of urban territory renovation from the perspective of a commercial entity participating in the implementation of a project. The requirements of high-rise construction projects to the entities, that carry out them, are considered. The advantages of large enterprises as participants in renovation projects are systematized, contributing to their most efficient implementation. The factors, which influence the success of the renovation projects, are presented. A method for selecting projects for implementation based on criteria grouped by qualitative characteristics and contributing to the most complete and comprehensive evaluation of the project is suggested. Patterns to prioritize and harmonize renovation projects in terms of multi-project activity of the enterprise are considered.

  13. What determines the preference for future living arrangements of middle-aged and older people in urban China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Dijuan; Xu, Guihua; He, Ling; Zhang, Min; Lin, Dan

    2017-01-01

    Living arrangements are important to the elderly. However, it is common for elderly parents in urban China to not have a living situation that they consider ideal. An understanding of their preferences assists us in responding to the needs of the elderly as well as in anticipating future long-term care demands. The aim of this study is to provide a clear understanding of preferences for future living arrangements and their associated factors among middle-aged and older people in urban China. Data were extracted from the CHARLS 2011-2012 national baseline survey of middle-aged and elderly people. In the 2011 wave of the CHARLS, a total of 17,708 individual participants (10,069 main respondents and 7,638 spouses) were interviewed; 2509 of the main respondents lived in urban areas. In this group, 41 people who were younger than 45 years old and 162 who had missing data in the variable "living arrangement preference" were excluded. Additionally, 42 people were excluded because they chose "other" for the variable "living arrangement preference" (which was a choice with no specific answer). Finally, a total of 2264 participants were included in our study. The most popular preference for future living arrangements was living close to their children in the same community/neighborhoods, followed by living with adult children. The degree of community handicapped access, number of surviving children, age, marital status, access to community-based elderly care centers and number of years lived in the same community were significantly associated with the preferences for future living arrangements among the respondents. There is a trend towards preference for living near adult children in urban China. Additionally, age has a positive effect on preference for living close to their children. Considerations should be made in housing design and urban community development plans to fulfill older adults' expectations. In addition, increasing the accessibility of public facilities in

  14. Rethinking Design and Urban Planning for the Cities of the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas L. Saaty

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Growth of urban areas and abandonment of rural areas are phenomena that increase quickly. The main consequences of urbanization are pollution, consumption of resources and energy, waste dumps, and junk yards. These aspects require a better planning and design of European urban metropolitan areas, considering benefits, opportunities, costs and risks (B.O.C.R., derivable by urban transformations and available resources. The paper consists of five parts. The first part contains some reflections on consequences of urban sprawl. In the second part, some possible kinds of cities are discussed (sustainable city, smart city, and compact city. The third part briefly describes a multicriteria decision-making approach known as the ‘analytic hierarchy process’ to deal with complex decisions. In the fourth part, alternative city models are analyzed (compact city, elevated city, green house city, and water city. Finally, in the fifth part, the criteria selected for the planning and design of the alternative city models are used for the prioritization of some European cities.

  15. Comparative assessment for future prediction of urban water environment using WEAP model: A case study of Kathmandu, Manila and Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Pankaj; Yoshifumi, Masago; Ammar, Rafieiemam; Mishra, Binaya; Fukushi, Ken

    2017-04-01

    Uncontrolled release of pollutants, increasing extreme weather condition, rapid urbanization and poor governance posing a serious threat to sustainable water resource management in developing urban spaces. Considering half of the world's mega-cities are in the Asia and the Pacific with 1.7 billion people do not access to improved water and sanitation, water security through its proper management is both an increasing concern and an imperative critical need. This research work strives to give a brief glimpse about predicted future water environment in Bagmati, Pasig and Ciliwung rivers from three different cities viz. Manila, Kathmandu and Jakarta respectively. Hydrological model used here to foresee the collective impacts of rapid population growth because of urbanization as well as climate change on unmet demand and water quality in near future time by 2030. All three rivers are major source of water for different usage viz. domestic, industrial, agriculture and recreation but uncontrolled withdrawal and sewerage disposal causing deterioration of water environment in recent past. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was used to model river water quality pollution future scenarios using four indicator species i.e. Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Nitrate (NO3). Result for simulated water quality as well as unmet demand for year 2030 when compared with that of reference year clearly indicates that not only water quality deteriorates but also unmet demands is increasing in future course of time. This also suggests that current initiatives and policies for water resource management are not sufficient enough and hence immediate and inclusive action through transdisciplinary research.

  16. The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takata, Hideaki; Nagata, Hiroshi; Nogawa, Hiroki; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2011-05-27

    Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing.The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus. Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce. Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050. The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.

  17. Pre-Columbian urbanism, anthropogenic landscapes, and the future of the Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckenberger, Michael J; Russell, J Christian; Fausto, Carlos; Toney, Joshua R; Schmidt, Morgan J; Pereira, Edithe; Franchetto, Bruna; Kuikuro, Afukaka

    2008-08-29

    The archaeology of pre-Columbian polities in the Amazon River basin forces a reconsideration of early urbanism and long-term change in tropical forest landscapes. We describe settlement and land-use patterns of complex societies on the eve of European contact (after 1492) in the Upper Xingu region of the Brazilian Amazon. These societies were organized in articulated clusters, representing small independent polities, within a regional peer polity. These patterns constitute a "galactic" form of prehistoric urbanism, sharing features with small-scale urban polities in other areas. Understanding long-term change in coupled human-environment systems relating to these societies has implications for conservation and sustainable development, notably to control ecological degradation and maintain regional biodiversity.

  18. Gated communities and urban sustainability: taking a closer look at the future

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, K

    2000-08-01

    Full Text Available residents and to be detrimental to long-term urban sustainability and political stability. It could just be that the very measure that is implemented to address crime and instability after a while becomes a major source of conflict20. • Urban... impact on the quality of life in an area and on building a liveable and vibrant city. It could also lead to the formation of political pressure groups and attempts to pressurise the local government into making certain decisions. It could not only...

  19. Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-02

    This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use service demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.

  20. FutureGen 2.0 Pipeline and Regional Carbon Capture Storage Project - Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burger, Chris [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Wortman, David [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Brown, Chris [Battelle Memorial Inst., Richland, WA (United States); Hassan, Syed [Gulf Interstate Engineering, Houston, TX (United States); Humphreys, Ken [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States); Willford, Mark [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States)

    2016-03-31

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) FutureGen 2.0 Program involves two projects: (1) the Oxy-Combustion Power Plant Project and (2) the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. This Final Technical Report is focused on the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. The FutureGen 2.0 CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project evolved from an initial siting and project definition effort in Phase I, into the Phase II activity consisting permitting, design development, the acquisition of land rights, facility design, and licensing and regulatory approvals. Phase II also progressed into construction packaging, construction procurement, and targeted early preparatory activities in the field. The CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project accomplishments were significant, and in some cases unprecedented. The engineering, permitting, legal, stakeholder, and commercial learnings substantially advance the nation’s understanding of commercial-scale CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers. Voluminous and significant information was obtained from the drilling and the testing program of the subsurface, and sophisticated modeling was performed that held up to a wide range of scrutiny. All designs progressed to the point of securing construction contracts or comfort letters attesting to successful negotiation of all contract terms and willing execution at the appropriate time all major project elements – pipeline, surface facilities, and subsurface – as well as operations. While the physical installation of the planned facilities did not proceed in part due to insufficient time to complete the project prior to the expiration of federal funding, the project met significant objectives prior to DOE’s closeout decision. Had additional time been available, there were no known, insurmountable obstacles that would have precluded successful construction and operation of the project. Due to the suspension of the project, site restoration activities were developed and the work was accomplished. The site restoration

  1. Future Projection of Ocean Wave Climate: Analysis of SST Impacts on Wave Climate Changes in the Western North Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Shimura, Tomoya; Mori, Nobuhito; Mase, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    Changes in ocean surface waves elicit a variety of impacts on coastal environments. To assess the future changes in the ocean surface wave climate, several future projections of global wave climate have been simulated in previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in the future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of...

  2. Intelum project: tackling the calorimetry challenge for future high-energy colliders

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2015-01-01

    Intelum is one of the CERN-coordinated projects funded under H2020. It aims to develop low-cost, radiation-hard scintillating and Cherenkov crystal and glass fibres for the next generation of calorimeter detectors for future high-energy experiments. This new technology could also have important applications in the medical imaging field.     Intelum project partners at the kick-off meeting held on 11 March at CERN.   Intelum is an H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE) project coordinated by CERN. This project was initiated by the Crystal Clear Collaboration (CERN’s RD18 experiment), which has been developing inorganic scintillation materials for novel ionising-radiation detectors for 25 years. Intelum is an international consortium including fifteen institutes and companies from across western and eastern Europe, Japan and the USA, all of which are experts in crystal growth, scintillating mechanisms, radiation damage and dete...

  3. Urban heat stress: novel survey suggests health and fitness as future avenue for research and adaptation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Christian; Honold, Jasmin; Lauf, Steffen; Lakes, Tobia

    2017-04-01

    Extreme heat has tremendous adverse effects on human health. Heat stress is expected to further increase due to urbanization, an aging population, and global warming. Previous research has identified correlations between extreme heat and mortality. However, the underlying physical, behavioral, environmental, and social risk factors remain largely unknown and comprehensive quantitative investigation on an individual level is lacking. We conducted a new cross-sectional household questionnaire survey to analyze individual heat impairment (self-assessed and reported symptoms) and a large set of potential risk factors in the city of Berlin, Germany. This unique dataset (n = 474) allows for the investigation of new relationships, especially between health/fitness and urban heat stress. Our analysis found previously undocumented associations, leading us to generate new hypotheses for future research: various health/fitness variables returned the strongest associations with individual heat stress. Our primary hypothesis is that age, the most commonly used risk factor, is outperformed by health/fitness as a dominant risk factor. Related variables seem to more accurately represent humans’ cardiovascular capacity to handle elevated temperature. Among them, active travel was associated with reduced heat stress. We observed statistical associations for heat exposure regarding the individual living space but not for the neighborhood environment. Heat stress research should further investigate individual risk factors of heat stress using quantitative methodologies. It should focus more on health and fitness and systematically explore their role in adaptation strategies. The potential of health and fitness to reduce urban heat stress risk means that encouraging active travel could be an effective adaptation strategy. Through reduced CO2 emissions from urban transport, societies could reap double rewards by addressing two root causes of urban heat stress: population health and

  4. Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaoyan, Jiang; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

    2013-01-01

    Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

  5. Present status and future directions of the Mayo/IBM PACS project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Richard L.; Forbes, Glenn S.; Gehring, Dale G.; Salutz, James R.; Pavlicek, William

    1991-07-01

    This joint project began in 1988 and was motivated by the need to develop an alternative to the archival process in place at that time (magnetic tape) for magnetic resonance imaging and neurological computed tomography. In addition, this project was felt to be an important step in gaining the necessary clinical experience for the future implementation of various aspects of electronic imaging. The initial phase of the project was conceived and developed to prove the concept, test the fundamental components, and produce performance measurements for future work. The key functions of this phase centered on attachment of imaging equipment (GE Signa) and archival processes using a non-dedicated (institutionally supplied) local area network (LAN). Attachment of imaging equipment to the LAN was performed using commercially available devices (Ethernet, PS/2, Token Ring). Image data were converted to ACR/NEMA format with retention of the vendor specific header information. Performance measurements were encouraging and led to the design of following projects. The second phase has recently been concluded. The major features of this phase have been to greatly expand the network, put the network into clinical use, establish an efficient and useful viewing station, include diagnostic reports in the archive data, provide wide area network (WAN) capability via ISDN, and establish two-way real-time video between remote sites. This phase has heightened both departmental and institutional thought regarding various issues raised by electronic imaging. Much discussion regarding both present as well as future archival processes has occurred. The use of institutional LAN resources has proven to be adequate for the archival function examined thus far. Experiments to date have shown that use of dedicated resources will be necessary for retrieval activities at even a basic level. This report presents an overview of the background present status and future directions of the project.

  6. Strategic urban projects in Amsterdam and New York : Incomplete contracts and good faith in different legal systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Veen, M.; Korthals Altes, W.K.

    2009-01-01

    Contracts between local government and private investment agencies play an important role in strategic urban projects. Real estate cycles provide only a narrow window of opportunity within which to draft such contracts. A legal system should therefore not impede the possibility of reaching an

  7. Charting a Path to Graduation. The Effect of Project GRAD on Elementary School Student Outcomes in Four Urban School Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snipes, Jason C.; Holton, Glee Ivory; Doolittle, Fred

    2006-01-01

    In the past decade, school districts around the country have sought to improve struggling urban high schools, where high dropout rates, poor student achievement, and low rates of graduation and college-going remain all too prevalent. In a field crowded with reform initiatives, Project Graduation Really Achieves Dreams (GRAD) stands out as…

  8. Characterizing Coastal Ecosystem Service Trade-offs with Future Urban Development in a Tropical City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Daniel R; Friess, Daniel A

    2017-11-01

    With rapid urbanization in the coastal zone and increasing habitat losses, it is imperative to understand how urban development affects coastal biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Furthermore, it is important to understand how habitat fragments can best be incorporated into broader land use planning and coastal management, in order to maximize the environmental benefits they provide. In this study, we characterized the trade-offs between (a) urban development and individual mangrove environmental indicators (habitat quality and ecosystem services), and (b) between different environmental indicators in the tropical nation of Singapore. A range of biological, biophysical, and cultural indicators, including carbon, charcoal production, support for offshore fisheries, recreation, and habitat quality for a threatened species were quantified using field-based, remote sensing, and expert survey methods. The shape of the trade-off Pareto frontiers was analyzed to assess the sensitivity of environmental indicators for development. When traded off individually with urban development, four out of five environmental indicators were insensitive to development, meaning that relatively minor degradation of the indicator occurred while development was below a certain threshold, although indicator loss accelerated once this threshold was reached. Most of the pairwise relationships between the five environmental indicators were synergistic; only carbon storage and charcoal production, and charcoal production and recreational accessibility showed trade-offs. Trade-off analysis and land use optimization using Pareto frontiers could be a useful decision-support tool for understanding how changes in land use and coastal management will impact the ability of ecosystems to provide environmental benefits.

  9. Characterizing Coastal Ecosystem Service Trade-offs with Future Urban Development in a Tropical City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Daniel R.; Friess, Daniel A.

    2017-11-01

    With rapid urbanization in the coastal zone and increasing habitat losses, it is imperative to understand how urban development affects coastal biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Furthermore, it is important to understand how habitat fragments can best be incorporated into broader land use planning and coastal management, in order to maximize the environmental benefits they provide. In this study, we characterized the trade-offs between (a) urban development and individual mangrove environmental indicators (habitat quality and ecosystem services), and (b) between different environmental indicators in the tropical nation of Singapore. A range of biological, biophysical, and cultural indicators, including carbon, charcoal production, support for offshore fisheries, recreation, and habitat quality for a threatened species were quantified using field-based, remote sensing, and expert survey methods. The shape of the trade-off Pareto frontiers was analyzed to assess the sensitivity of environmental indicators for development. When traded off individually with urban development, four out of five environmental indicators were insensitive to development, meaning that relatively minor degradation of the indicator occurred while development was below a certain threshold, although indicator loss accelerated once this threshold was reached. Most of the pairwise relationships between the five environmental indicators were synergistic; only carbon storage and charcoal production, and charcoal production and recreational accessibility showed trade-offs. Trade-off analysis and land use optimization using Pareto frontiers could be a useful decision-support tool for understanding how changes in land use and coastal management will impact the ability of ecosystems to provide environmental benefits.

  10. Integrated GIS-Based Site Selection of Hillside Development for Future Growth of Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imtiaz Ahmed Chandio

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization is a challenging issue for developing countries, like Malaysia. Penang Island is one of the states of Malaysia selected as a study area where limited flat land exists. As a result, this would create urban environmental problems, such as unstable slopes and landslides due to uneven topography. The purpose of this study was to develop land suitability model for hillside development. Hence, this research aims land suitability analysis modelling for hillside development by using integrated GIS (Geographic Information System based MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach. The hill land portion of Penang Island was selected for hillside site development using GIS and AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process as a MCDM method for sustainable hillside development. This study found that 15% of land was highly suitable, 27% moderately suitable, 41% less suitable, and 17% not suitable. Therefore, this research can be consistently used by the concerned authorities for sustainable hillside urban planning and development. This approach can be used as a policy tool in decision making of urban planning and development.

  11. Opening Gijón to Future: The Limited Revision of the Official Urban Catalogue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Latorre

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Gijón, also known as Xixón, is an important city that rivals Oviedo, the historical capital of the Autonomous Region and Principality of Asturias (Spain, in historical demographic and economic terms. It has traditionally been a port and, more recently, an industrial city, which experienced very rapid population growth and with little planning. After the industrial crisis of the 80s, the city wanted to become a tourist location more than an industrial harbor. Both its privileged location and the historical urban heritage that still remain are corner stones to make this change possible. However, the late and strict legislation (improvised to protect the last remains of a previously uncontrolled development impeded a necessary urban re-design in order to shelter the new touristic supplies. This paper proposes some urban solutions to selectively modify the catalogue according with the cultural and touristic potentials of the city. These solutions were agreed by the working group set up by Gijón City Council and ERDU (Estudio de Renovación y Desarrollos Urbanos -Urban Renovation and Development Studio.

  12. Computing the distribution of return levels of extreme warm temperatures for future climate projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pausader, M.; Parey, S.; Nogaj, M. [EDF/R and D, Chatou Cedex (France); Bernie, D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2012-03-15

    In order to take into account uncertainties in the future climate projections there is a growing demand for probabilistic projections of climate change. This paper presents a methodology for producing such a probabilistic analysis of future temperature extremes. The 20- and 100-years return levels are obtained from that of the normalized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation given by climate models for the desired future periods. Uncertainty in future change of these extremes is quantified using a multi-model ensemble and a perturbed physics ensemble. The probability density functions of future return levels are computed at a representative location from the joint probability distribution of mean and standard deviation changes given by the two combined ensembles of models. For the studied location, the 100-years return level at the end of the century is lower than 41 C with an 80% confidence. Then, as the number of model simulations is low to compute a reliable distribution, two techniques proposed in the literature (local pattern scaling and ANOVA) have been used to infer the changes in mean and standard deviation for the combinations of RCM and GCM which have not been run. The ANOVA technique leads to better results for the reconstruction of the mean changes, whereas the two methods fail to correctly infer the changes in standard deviation. As standard deviation change has a major impact on return level change, there is a need to improve the models and the different techniques regarding the variance changes. (orig.)

  13. Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative

  14. Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.

  15. Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — a glimpse into current and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.

  16. Urban Maglev Technology Development Program : Colorado Maglev Project : part 1 : executive summary of final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-06-01

    The overall objective of the urban maglev transit technology development program is to develop magnetic levitation technology that is a cost effective, reliable, and environmentally sound transit option for urban mass transportation in the United Sta...

  17. Urban Maglev Technology Development Program : Colorado Maglev Project : part 2 final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-06-01

    The overall objective of the urban maglev transit technology development program is to develop magnetic levitation technology that is a cost effective, reliable, and environmentally sound transit option for urban mass transportation in the United Sta...

  18. Addressing the security of a future sustainable power system: The Danish SOSPO project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Guangya; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Lind, Morten

    2012-01-01

    evaluated to secure the operation from both transmission and distribution levels. The Danish SOSPO project is launched from 2012 targeting at the system security assessment in the control room for the future scenarios. Methods will be developed in this project to counteract with the future challenges......Current power systems have been undergoing in depth changes by the increasing use of renewable generations. At one hand, the grid is progressively more interconnected in order to collect the renewable generation from geographically dispersed places meanwhile reduce the risks of intermittency......; on the other, the power is increasingly generated at relative low voltage networks which in turn gives rise to new challenges in the conventional system design. The high governmental objective of greenhouse gas reduction provokes accelerating adoptation of the renewables. The effect of this has to be carefully...

  19. Capitalizing on Crisis: Venture Philanthropy's Colonial Project to Remake Urban Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman, Pauline

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on the increased power of venture philanthropy to shape education in urban communities of color in the USA. The author situates venture philanthropy's expanded influence in urban school districts in the nexus of urban disinvestment, neoliberal governance, wealth concentration, and economic crisis. The author argues that…

  20. Applied aspects of content projecting of lexicology and phraseology teaching of future primary school teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Марія Михайлівна Греб

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the article it is considered the applied aspects of content projecting of lexicology and phraseology teaching of future primary school teachers basing on the principles of developing education. These principles are realized gradually (theoretical, practical, research stages and stage of independent work. Also these principles are guaranteed by the system of exercises and tasks of three levels of complexity which promotes increasing of motivation, self-development, self-realization of subjects of educational process

  1. High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

  2. Dynamic modelling of future land use change under urbanization and climate change pressures: application to a case study in central Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquemin, I.; Fontaine, C. M.; Dendoncker, N.; François, L.; De Vreese, R.; Marek, A.; Mortelmans, D.; Van Herzele, A.; Devillet, G.

    2012-04-01

    Projecting the future of the evolution of socio-ecological systems to analyse their sustainability under climate or other environmental changes is not straightforward. Current projections usually use process-oriented models describing the complex interactions within the physical/biological systems (ecosystems), while the socio-economic constraints are represented with the help of scenarios. However, the actual evolution can be expected to be much more complex, because of the mutual interactions between ecological and socio-economic systems. To represent these interactions, models must integrate the complex process of human decision at individual or society levels. Moreover, models must be spatially explicit, defining elementary spatial units on which can act both the physical factors and the human decision process. These spatial units (e.g., farm fields) must be described not only in terms of energy, water, carbon and nutrient flows, but also in terms of the flow of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) they provide to the society together with the management costs required to sustain them. The provision of EGS may be altered in the future in response to changes in the climate system and the environment, but also through various human pressures on the landscape such as urbanization, as well as through the reaction of human societies to these changes in EGS provision. In the VOTES ("Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services in a multifunctional peri-urban space") project, we attempt to model this coupled socio-ecological system by combining a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) with an agent-based model (ABM). The DVM (CARAIB; Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) model describes the evolution of physical and biological processes in the ecosystems, i.e. the impact of climate change and land management on the energy, water and carbon budgets, as well as the productivity of each simulated plant species present on each land unit. The original

  3. The Social, Political and Environmental Dimensions of Urban ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Urban agriculture is an increasingly popular practice in cities worldwide, and a sustainable future for it is critical, especially for the urban poor of the developing world. This book presents the first findings of original field research projects funded by IDRC's AGROPOLIS International Graduate Research Awards on Urban ...

  4. "Future Life How?": The Making of Deaf Sociality and Aspiration in Urban India

    OpenAIRE

    Friedner, Michele Ilana

    2011-01-01

    With the decline of the public sector in India, corporate rationalities have come to play an increasingly important role in everyday life in urban India. In analyzing this trend, this dissertation tracks what possibilities and constraints these new rationalities offer deaf young adults in the spaces that they circulate through. This dissertation argues that vocational training for deaf people is now focused on creating (immobile) workers for the Information Technology sector and that corporat...

  5. The future of urban waste water reuse. El futuro de la reutilizacion de las aguas residuales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farias Iglesias, M. (PRIDESA. Madrid (Spain))

    1992-11-01

    An explanation is given for the interest in the re-use of urban waste water, together with the possible uses for it. Water quality parameters such as the quantity of material in suspension, fertilizers, heavy metals, boron, bacteria and viruses, salinity, toxicity and pathogenous agents are given for water to be re-used, whether it be for drinking purposes or industrial use. Consideration is also given to the possibility of injecting this water into aquifers. (Author)

  6. Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooidonk, Ruben; Maynard, Jeffrey; Tamelander, Jerker; Gove, Jamison; Ahmadia, Gabby; Raymundo, Laurie; Williams, Gareth; Heron, Scott F; Planes, Serge

    2016-12-21

    Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km 2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.

  7. The URban Greenhouse gas Emissions assessment through inverse modeling (URGE) project: a pilot study in the Oslo area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisso, I. J.; Lopez-Aparicio, S.; Schneider, P.; Schmidbauer, N.; Vogt, M.

    2017-12-01

    Norway has set the target of cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 40% compared to 1990 levels by 2030. This goal will require the implementation of policy measures aiming at strong reductions of GHGs emissions, especially in the urban environment. The implementation of urban policy measures is still a challenging task and it requires control and verification for success. The URGE project aims at assessing the emission flux of GHGs including comprehensive uncertainty estimates based on inverse transport modelling techniques and optimized use of measurements. The final goal is to establish a coherent and consistent GHG urban emission inventory. This will be carried out in a case study in Oslo (Norway), where CO2 will be the priority compound. The overall outcome of the project will provide support in the development of strategies to effectively reduce GHG emissions in the urban environment. The overall goal will be reached through establishing the baseline urban CO2 emission inventory for Oslo; determining the optimal measurement locations based on transport modelling (with flexpart-wrf); designing and carrying out a pilot measurement campaign of the CO2-rich air downwind of the city plume combining state-of-the-art instruments (Picarro) and small sensors; assessing the feasibility of determining the background concentration surrounding the city with satellite measurements (OCO2); and providing optimised estimates of the emissions and their uncertainties via inverse modelling (source-receptor relationship). One of our main interests is the interoperability and exchange of information with similar activities in other urban areas. We will present the overall project and the preliminary results of the network design. We will discuss the data exchange formats, the algorithms and data structures that could be used for results and methodology intercomparisons as well as the suitability to apply the same techniques to other atmospheric compounds.

  8. Model Projections of Future Fluvial Sediment Delivery to Major Deltas Under Environmental Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, S. E.; Dunn, F.; Nicholls, R. J.; Cohen, S.; Zarfl, C.

    2017-12-01

    Deltas are important hot spots for climate change impacts on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Most of the world's deltas are sinking as a result of natural and anthropogenic subsidence and due to eustatic sea level rise. The ability to predict rates of delta aggradation is therefore critical to assessments of the extent to which sedimentation can potentially offset sea level rise, but our ability to make such predictions is severely hindered by a lack of insight into future trends of the fluvial sediment load supplied to their deltas by feeder watersheds. To address this gap we investigate fluvial sediment fluxes under future environmental change for a selection (47) of the world's major river deltas. Specifically, we employed the numerical model WBMsed to project future variations in mean annual fluvial sediment loads under a range of environmental change scenarios that account for changes in climate, socio-economics and dam construction. Our projections indicate a clear decrease (by 34 to 41% on average, depending on the specific scenario) in future fluvial sediment supply to most of the 47 deltas. These reductions in sediment delivery are driven primarily by anthropogenic disturbances, with reservoir construction being the most influential factor globally. Our results indicate the importance of developing new management strategies for reservoir construction and operation.

  9. Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Mubasher; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng

    2017-10-01

    We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.

  10. Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Mölter

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This is an overview of the results from previously published climate modeling studies reporting on projected aspects of future storminess over the North Atlantic European region (NAER in the period 2020–2190. Changes in storminess are summarized for seven subregions in the study area and rated by a categorical evaluation scheme that takes into account emission scenarios and modeling complexity in the reviewed studies. Although many of the reviewed studies reported an increase in the intensity of high-impact wind speed and extreme cyclone frequency in the second half of the 21st century, the projections of aspects of future storminess over the NAER differed regionally. There is broad consensus that the frequency and intensity of storms, cyclones, and high-impact wind speed will increase over Central and Western Europe, and these changes will probably have the potential to produce more damage. In contrast, future extratropical storminess over Southern Europe is very likely to decrease. For Northern and Eastern Europe the results of the evaluation are inconclusive, because there is an indication of increasing as well as decreasing development of the evaluated aspects of future storminess. Concerning the storm track, we found indications of a likely north- and eastward shift in most assessed studies. Results from three studies suggest a northeastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  11. Utilization of paleoclimate results to validate projections of a future greenhouse warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.

    1990-01-01

    Paleoclimate data provide a rich source of information for testing projections of future greenhouse trends. This paper summarizes the present state-of-the-art as to assessments of two important climate problems. (1) Validation of climate models - The same climate models that have been used to make greenhouse forecasts have also been used for paleoclimate simulations. Comparisons of model results and observations indicate some impressive successes but also some cases where there are significant divergences between models and observations. However, special conditions associated with the impressive successes could lead to a false confidence in the models; disagreements are a topic of greater concern. It remains to be determined whether the disagreements are due to model limitations or uncertainties in geologic data. (2) Role of CO 2 as a significant climate feedback: Paleoclimate studies indicate that the climate system is generally more sensitive than our ability to model it. Addition or subtraction of CO 2 leads to a closer agreement between models and observations. In this respect paleoclimate results in general support the conclusion that CO 2 is an important climate feedback, with the magnitude of the feedback approximately comparable to the sensitivity of present climate models. If the CO 2 projections are correct, comparison of the future warming with past warm periods indicate that there may be no geologic analogs for a future warming; the future greenhouse climate may represent a unique climate realization in earth history

  12. Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-10-01

    Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

  13. Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de, E-mail: fabio@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Nuclear and Engineering Center; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Information Technology Development Dept.

    2011-07-01

    This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

  14. Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de; Imakuma, Kengo

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

  15. Superconductors and novel ceramics for future communication technologies. Project: Cooler and cryotechnology. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefner, H.U.; Rolff, N.; Thummes, G.

    2004-02-01

    The project involved the production of a 6W rate at 77K stirling chiller for a HTS telecommunication experiment on the 'International Space Station' (project partner Bosch Telecom) and the production of a prototype long-lived stirling pulsed tube chiller of 10W rate at 77K for future applications in telecommunication. The projected was terminated prematurely. The following results were obtained: 1. The low-capacity chiller 'Mono-Kaltfinger' (stirling cold finger with displacement piston) achieved up to 5.3% COP at 80 K. 2. The chilling capacity was 10 W at 80 K for a maximum compressor uptake of 250 W. 3. An efficient pulsed tube chiller was constructed, as well as 4. A long-lived compressor with flexure bearings. (orig.) [de

  16. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  17. Toward a Multi-City Framework for Urban GHG Estimation in the United States: Methods, Uncertainties, and Future Goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, K. L.; Callahan, W.; Davis, K. J.; Dickerson, R. R.; Duren, R. M.; Gurney, K. R.; Karion, A.; Keeling, R. F.; Kim, J.; Lauvaux, T.; Miller, C. E.; Shepson, P. B.; Turnbull, J. C.; Weiss, R. F.; Whetstone, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    City and State governments are increasingly interested in mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to improve sustainability within their jurisdictions. Estimation of urban GHG emissions remains an active research area with many sources of uncertainty. To support the effort of improving measurement of trace gas emissions in city environments, several federal agencies along with academic, research, and private entities have been working within a handful of domestic metropolitan areas to improve both (1) the assessment of GHG emissions accuracy using a variety of measurement technologies, and (2) the tools that can better assess GHG inventory data at urban mitigation scales based upon these measurements. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) activities have focused on three areas, or testbeds: Indianapolis (INFLUX experiment), Los Angeles (the LA Megacities project), and the Northeastern Corridor areas encompassing Washington and Baltimore (the NEC/BW GHG Measurements project). These cities represent diverse meteorological, terrain, demographic, and emissions characteristics having a broad range of complexities. To date this research has involved multiple measurement systems and integrated observing approaches, all aimed at advancing development of a robust, science-base upon which higher accuracy quantification approaches can rest. Progress toward such scientifically robust, widely-accepted emissions quantification methods will rely upon continuous performance assessment. Such assessment is challenged by the complexities of cities themselves (e.g., population, urban form) along with the many variables impacting a city's technological ability to estimate its GHG emissions (e.g., meteorology, density of observations). We present the different NIST testbeds and a proposal to initiate conceptual development of a reference framework supporting the comparison of multi-city GHG emissions estimates. Such a reference framework has potential to provide

  18. The NYC native air sampling pilot project: using HVAC filter data for urban biological incident characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackelsberg, Joel; Leykam, Frederic M; Hazi, Yair; Madsen, Larry C; West, Todd H; Faltesek, Anthony; Henderson, Gavin D; Henderson, Christopher L; Leighton, Terrance

    2011-09-01

    Native air sampling (NAS) is distinguished from dedicated air sampling (DAS) devices (eg, BioWatch) that are deployed to detect aerosol disseminations of biological threat agents. NAS uses filter samples from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in commercial properties for environmental sampling after DAS detection of biological threat agent incidents. It represents an untapped, scientifically sound, efficient, widely distributed, and comparably inexpensive resource for postevent environmental sampling. Calculations predict that postevent NAS would be more efficient than environmental surface sampling by orders of magnitude. HVAC filter samples could be collected from pre-identified surrounding NAS facilities to corroborate the DAS alarm and delineate the path taken by the bioaerosol plume. The New York City (NYC) Native Air Sampling Pilot Project explored whether native air sampling would be acceptable to private sector stakeholders and could be implemented successfully in NYC. Building trade associations facilitated outreach to and discussions with property owners and managers, who expedited contact with building managers of candidate NAS properties that they managed or owned. Nominal NAS building requirements were determined; procedures to identify and evaluate candidate NAS facilities were developed; data collection tools and other resources were designed and used to expedite candidate NAS building selection and evaluation in Manhattan; and exemplar environmental sampling playbooks for emergency responders were completed. In this sample, modern buildings with single or few corporate tenants were the best NAS candidate facilities. The Pilot Project successfully demonstrated that in one urban setting a native air sampling strategy could be implemented with effective public-private collaboration.

  19. [Telemedicine in Bolivia: RAFT-Altiplano project, experiences, future prospects, and recommendations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, Alejandro; Ugalde, Miguel; Vargas, Reynaldo; Narvaez, Ramiro; Geissbuhler, Antoine

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the RAFT-Altiplano project (RAFT: Réseau en Afrique Francophone pour la Télémédecine, or African Francophone Telemedicine Network) is to evaluate the viability, potential, and risks of implementing and developing a telemedicine network in the context of a developing country-specifically, the Altiplano region of Bolivia-to improve access to medical care and continuing education in a rural area. The activities described in this report took place between 2011 and 2013. Digital telemedicine equipment was donated to the health centers and a Microsoft®-based platform capable of integration with other technologies (using standardized formats) was developed to manage documents and clinical content electronically. Health professionals were trained in teleconsultation and the teleconsultation workflow was designed. The tele-education system used is Dudal, which requires only a small bandwidth. After three years of implementation, an organized working structure of teleconsultation and tele-education tools, adapted to the Latin American context, is now in place and connections have been established with hospitals, institutions, and health centers. The project has improved access to specialized medical care in remote health centers and third-level hospitals in urban areas, and it has become the foundation for development of the national project "TeleSalud for Bolivia" promoted by the Ministry of Health, which involves use of the new Bolivian satellite, Túpac Katari. It is viable to develop and set up telemedicine tools to serve the population in remote regions of Bolivia when they are made available to government and municipal health institutions and communication between them and the health centers takes place in a coordinated manner. The sharing of experiences, challenges, and risks encountered is very useful in designing and implementing the telemedicine project "TeleSalud for Bolivia" on a national scale.

  20. Urban Stormwater Quality: Linking Pesticide Variability To Our Sustainable Water Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rippy, M.; Deletic, A.; Gernjak, W.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and global population growth demand creative, multidisciplinary, and multi-benefit approaches for sustaining adequate fresh water resources and protecting ecosystem health. Currently, a driving factor of aquatic ecosystem degradation (stormwater) is also one of the largest untapped urban freshwater resources. This suggests that ecosystem protection and potable water security might both be achieved via treating and capturing stormwater for human use (e.g., potable substitution). The viability of such a scheme, however, depends on 1) initial stormwater quality (e.g., the contaminants present and their associated human/environmental health risks), 2) the spatial and temporal variability of contaminants in stormwater, and 3) the capacity of existing technologies to treat those contaminants to fit for purpose standards. Here we present results from a four year study of urban stormwater conducted across ten catchments and four states in Australia that addresses these three issues relative to stormwater pesticides. In total, 19 pesticides were detected across all sites and times. In general, pesticide concentrations were lower than has been reported in other countries, including the United States, Canada and Europe. This is reflected in few exceedences of public health (< 1%) and aquatic ecosystem standards (0% for invertebrates and fish, < 1% for algae and plants). Interestingly, pesticide patterns were found to be stable across seasons, and years, but varied across catchments. These catchment-specific fingerprints may reflect preferential commercial product use, as they map closely to co-occurrence patterns in registered Australian products. Importantly, the presence of catchment-specific pesticide variability has clear management implications; namely, urban stormwater must be managed at the catchment level and target local contaminant suites in order to best achieve desired human use and environmental protection standards.

  1. Urban greenspace for resilient city in the future: Case study of Yogyakarta City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni'mah, N. M.; Lenonb, S.

    2017-06-01

    The capacity of adaptation is essential elements towards urban resilience. One adaptation that can be done is to consider the provision of open space and public space in the city. Yogyakarta City development which focused on the built area and negates the open space has blurred the characteristics of the city. Efforts in increasing the availability of public space is one of the seven priorities of the programs included in the environmental and the utilization of space in Yogyakarta City. An understanding of the provision of public green open spaces in Yogyakarta is important because the products and processes that take place in a development will determine the successful implementation of the development plan. The objectives of this study are as follows: (1) to identify the provision green space in Yogyakarta City from the aspects of product and procedure; and (2) to identify the role of green space to build resilient city. This study is used descriptive qualitative approach with in-depth interview, literature review, and triangulation as the method for data collection. Yogyakarta has had instruments for public green open spaces provision called Masterplan Ruang Terbuka Hijau (RTH) Up-Scaling Yogyakarta 2013-2032 which govern the typologies and criteria for green open space development in the city.Public green open spaces development mechanism can be grouped into the planning phase, the utilization phase, and the control phase of each consisting of legal and regulatory aspects, institutional aspects, financial aspects, and technical aspects. The mechanism of green open space provision should regard the need of advocacy for “urban green commons” (UGCs) development as a systematic approach of collective-participatory for urban land management.

  2. The Boston Methane Project: Mapping Surface Emissions to Inform Atmospheric Estimation of Urban Methane Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, N.; Crosson, E.; Down, A.; Hutyra, L.; Jackson, R. B.; McKain, K.; Rella, C.; Raciti, S. M.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    Lost and unaccounted natural gas can amount to over 6% of Massachusetts' total annual greenhouse gas inventory (expressed as equivalent CO2 tonnage). An unknown portion of this loss is due to natural gas leaks in pipeline distribution systems. The objective of the Boston Methane Project is to estimate the overall leak rate from natural gas systems in metropolitan Boston, and to compare this flux with fluxes from the other primary methane emissions sources. Companion talks at this meeting describe the atmospheric measurement and modeling framework, and chemical and isotopic tracers that can partition total atmospheric methane flux into natural gas and non-natural gas components. This talk focuses on estimation of surface emissions that inform the atmospheric modeling and partitioning. These surface emissions include over 3,300 pipeline natural gas leaks in Boston. For the state of Massachusetts as a whole, the amount of natural gas reported as lost and unaccounted for by utility companies was greater than estimated landfill emissions by an order of magnitude. Moreover, these landfill emissions were overwhelmingly located outside of metro Boston, while gas leaks are concentrated in exactly the opposite pattern, increasing from suburban Boston toward the urban core. Work is in progress to estimate spatial distribution of methane emissions from wetlands and sewer systems. We conclude with a description of how these spatial data sets will be combined and represented for application in atmospheric modeling.

  3. A Green Urban Mobility System Solution from the EU Ingrid project

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Errico, Fabrizio; Screnci, Adamo; Romeo, Marco

    With a mandate to reach 20/20/20 targets, new strategies are now focusing on the increased use of electricity to power transportation. Particularly in major urban areas of the EU, capillary use of electric vehicles are being encouraged, however, as these vehicles will be powered by the grid, there is always the risk that load peaks will occur. This work is just one of several being developed as part of the 23.9 MLN Euros INGRID European project started in July 2012, which combines solid-state high-density hydrogen storage systems with advanced ICT technologies for distribution grids. One possible solution which has been designed, is an off-grid utility to store renewable electricity captured from wind/solar sources and a re-charging point for full battery electric cars. This work shows the preliminary financial assessment of two business models for the Park-for-Recharging concept to promote green e-mobility as a more convenient and economical means of by-car transport.

  4. Irradiation project of SiC/SiC fuel pin 'INSPIRE': Status and future plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohyama, Akira; Kishimoto, Hirotatsu

    2015-01-01

    After the March 11 Disaster in East-Japan, Research and Development towards Ensuring Nuclear Safety Enhancement for LWR becomes a top priority R and D in nuclear energy policy of Japan. The role of high temperature non-metallic materials, such as SiC/SiC, is becoming important for the advanced nuclear reactor systems. SiC fibre reinforced SiC composite has been recognised to be the most attractive option for the future, now, METI fund based project, INSPIRE, has been launched as 5-year termed project at OASIS in Muroran Institute of Technology aiming at early realisation of this system. INSPIRE is the irradiation project of SiC/SiC fuel pins aiming to accumulate material, thermal, irradiation effect data of NITE-SiC/SiC in BWR environment. Nuclear fuel inserted SiC/SiC fuel pins are planned to be installed in the Halden reactor. The project includes preparing the NITE-SiC/SiC tubes, joining of end caps, preparation of rigs to control the irradiation environment to BWR condition and the instruments to measure the condition of rigs and pins in operation. Also, basic neutron irradiation data will be accumulated by SiC/SiC coupon samples currently under irradiation in BR2. The output from this project may present the potentiality of NITE-SiC/SiC fuel cladding with the first stage fuel-cladding interaction. (authors)

  5. Disentangling the effects of land-use change, climate and CO2 on projected future European habitat types

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehsten, V; Sykes, M.T.; Scott, A.V.; Tzanopoulis, A.; Kallimanis, A.; Verburg, P.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Potts, S.G.; Vogiatzakis, I.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To project the potential European distribution of seven broad habitat categories (needle-leaved, broad-leaved, mixed and mediterranean forest, urban, grassland and cropland) in order to assess effects of land use, climate change and increase in CO2 on predicted habitat changes up to

  6. Risk analysis in the management of urban construction projects from the perspective of the employer and the contractor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Taghipour

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Imbalance between anticipated and actual progress in the development of urban construction projects suggests that there are many obstacles and risks which not only causes the urban management be unsustainable, but the reconstruction and development of urban space is also seriously threatened. In this study, the library research on issues related to the risk of construction projects was done, then some interviews were conducted with experts and managers informed and involved in the projects, and finally questionnaires were distributed to identify and classify the impact of the risks of the implementation of the construction projects. After analyzing the data, the results indicated that the experts listed the most significant risks as the delays in the payment of contractors' claims and statements due to the lack of handling financial instruments, the governance of relationships rather than rules in the tenders resulting from employer actions, low commitment to the quality of work provided by their subcontractors, failure to complete the detail engineering by foreign contractors on time, weaknesses in contractors' financial resources, and offering lower prices than reasonable by contractors to win the tender. All of these require special attention and other kinds of risks are important at the next level. Finally, the solutions for eliminating or reducing risks in high-risk areas have been offered to provide tranquility for contractors and employers.

  7. International research and development projects in nuclear energy: Experience and future prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strohl, P.

    1983-01-01

    From the very beginning nuclear energy appeared as a fruitful field for international co-operation and particularly for international projects and joint ventures. By pooling scientific, technical and financial resources, the participating countries sought to promote the development of technology and the transition of nuclear energy to the industrial stage. Governments and therefore intergovernmental organizations were the driving force behind the establishment of joint projects in various R and D sectors, often in association with industry and private research institutes. The situation changed considerably from the end of the 1960s onwards. Despite some remarkable technical achievements, international co-operation did not develop to the extent predicted at the outset. Industry took over in the exploitation of proven technologies, and industrial co-operation agreements have become an important feature in some key areas of nuclear energy. This trend raises questions as to the future of joint R and D projects organized through intergovernmental co-operation. Although such projects are still very useful, they tend to be concentrated in those few sectors which continue to be of direct interest to the Governments; for instance, fundamental research, radioactive waste management and nuclear safety. The position of nuclear energy has changed, and the benefits to be drawn from this form of international co-operation must be critically re-assessed accordingly. While advantage to be gained from international projects for countries which are the most advanced in the development of nuclear energy is not the same as it was at the beginning, the transfer of experience and knowledge to less advanced countries is still the main concern of projects dealing with safety and regulatory matters. The experience thus gained provides a very useful insight into the legal and institutional framework of joint projects

  8. Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Taylor

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF, a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts.

  9. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN over Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Syafrina

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF. New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081–2100. The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10–40 years.

  10. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

    2014-09-01

    A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

  11. Market-Based Approaches toward the Development of Urban Forest Carbon Projects in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelam C. Poudyal; Jacek P. Siry; J. M. Bowker

    2012-01-01

    The United States has observed unprecedented urban growth over the last few decades. Nowak et al. (2005) noted that between 1990 and 2000, the share of urban land area in the nation increased from 2.5% to 3.1%. Existing urban areas in the U.S. maintain average tree coverage of 27% (Nowak et al. 2001), and consist of millions of trees along streets and in parks,...

  12. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  13. Will urban expansion lead to an increase in future water pollution loads?--a preliminary investigation of the Haihe River Basin in northeastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yang; Liu, Yi; Chen, Jining

    2014-01-01

    Urban expansion is a major driving force changing regional hydrology and nonpoint source pollution. The Haihe River Basin, the political, economic, and cultural center of northeastern China, has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. To investigate the consequences of future urban sprawl on nonpoint source water pollutant emissions in the river basin, the urban sprawl in 2030 was estimated, and the annual runoff and nonpoint source pollution in the Haihe River basin were simulated. The Integrated Model of Non-Point Sources Pollution Processes (IMPULSE) was used to simulate the effects of urban sprawl on nonpoint source pollution emissions. The outcomes indicated that the urban expansion through 2030 increased the nonpoint source total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorous (TP), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) emissions by 8.08, 0.14, and 149.57 kg/km(2), respectively. Compared to 2008, the total nonpoint emissions rose by 15.33, 0.57, and 12.39 %, respectively. Twelve percent of the 25 cities in the basin would increase by more than 50 % in nonpoint source TN and COD emissions in 2030. In particular, the nonpoint source TN emissions in Xinxiang, Jiaozuo, and Puyang would rise by 73.31, 67.25, and 58.61 %, and the nonpoint source COD emissions in these cities would rise by 74.02, 51.99, and 53.27 %, respectively. The point source pollution emissions in 2008 and 2030 were also estimated to explore the effects of urban sprawl on total water pollution loads. Urban sprawl through 2030 would bring significant structural changes of total TN, TP, and COD emissions for each city in the area. The results of this study could provide insights into the effects of urbanization in the study area and the methods could help to recognize the role that future urban sprawl plays in the total water pollution loads in the water quality management process.

  14. From Bottleneck to Breakthrough: Urbanization and the Future of Biodiversity Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Eric W; Walston, Joseph; Robinson, John G

    2018-06-01

    For the first time in the Anthropocene, the global demographic and economic trends that have resulted in unprecedented destruction of the environment are now creating the necessary conditions for a possible renaissance of nature. Drawing reasonable inferences from current patterns, we can predict that 100 years from now, the Earth could be inhabited by between 6 and 8 billion people, with very few remaining in extreme poverty, most living in towns and cities, and nearly all participating in a technologically driven, interconnected market economy. Building on the scholarship of others in demography, economics, sociology, and conservation biology, here, we articulate a theory of social-environmental change that describes the simultaneous and interacting effects of urban lifestyles on fertility, poverty alleviation, and ideation. By recognizing the shifting dynamics of these macrodrivers, conservation practice has the potential to transform itself from a discipline managing declines ("bottleneck") to a transformative movement of recovery ("breakthrough").

  15. Imagining the personal past: Episodic counterfactuals compared to episodic memories and episodic future projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Özbek, Müge; Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2017-01-01

    Episodic counterfactuals are imagined events that could have happened, but did not happen, in a person’s past. Such imagined past events are important aspects of mental life, affecting emotions, decisions, and behaviors. However, studies examining their phenomenological characteristics and content...... are few. Here we introduced a new method to systematically compare self-generated episodic counterfactuals to self-generated episodic memories and future projections with regard to their phenomenological characteristics (e.g., imagery, emotional valence, rehearsal) and content (e.g., reference to cultural...... distance. The findings show that imagined events are phenomenologically different from memories of experienced events, consistent with reality monitoring theory, and that imagined future events are different from both actual and imagined past events, consistent with some theories of motivation....

  16. The Global Climate and Energy Project at Stanford University: Fundamental Research Towards Future Energy Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, Jennifer L.; Sassoon, Richard E.; Hung, Emilie; Bosshard, Paolo; Benson, Sally M.

    The Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP), at Stanford University, invests in research with the potential to lead to energy technologies with lower greenhouse gas emissions than current energy technologies. GCEP is sponsored by four international companies, ExxonMobil, GE, Schlumberger, and Toyota and supports research programs in academic institutions worldwide. Research falls into the broad areas of carbon based energy systems, renewables, electrochemistry, and the electric grid. Within these areas research efforts are underway that are aimed at achieving break-throughs and innovations that greatly improve efficiency, performance, functionality and cost of many potential energy technologies of the future including solar, batteries, fuel cells, biofuels, hydrogen storage and carbon capture and storage. This paper presents a summary of some of GCEP's activities over the past 7 years with current research areas of interest and potential research directions in the near future.

  17. The future is no longer what it used to be. Managing health telematics projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demeester, M; Beuscart, R

    1997-09-01

    Future used to mean global progress and convergence of science and technology and society. Today, we observe the decoupling of the two poles of knowledge formation and application (i.e. science and technology, and culture and society, respectively) and also fierce confrontation between them. The key issue to reconcile the two poles is to re-invent the link between them. The new future lies in the development of mental and technical capacities for change and the creation of new forms of solidarity. We propose, as a general attitude, to reactivate and develop the four principles of efficacy-effectiveness-efficiency, hospitality, responsibility and pertinence. Translated into driving forces for the development of health care telematic projects, they amount to the acceptance of and capacity for enterprise-wide solutions, hospitality and capacity to acquire outside knowledge, self-managed, multi-functional team work spirit, reengineering mentality to achieve pertinent technico-cultural solutions.

  18. Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

    Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

  19. Planning and managing future space facility projects. [management by objectives and group dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieber, J. E.; Wilhelm, J. A.; Tanner, T. A.; Helmreich, R. L.; Burgenbauch, S. F.

    1979-01-01

    To learn how ground-based personnel of a space project plan and organize their work and how such planning and organizing relate to work outcomes, longitudinal study of the management and execution of the Space Lab Mission Development Test 3 (SMD 3) was performed at NASA Ames Research Center. A view of the problems likely to arise in organizations and some methods of coping with these problems are presented as well as the conclusions and recommendations that pertain strictly to SMD 3 management. Emphasis is placed on the broader context of future space facility projects and additional problems that may be anticipated. A model of management that may be used to facilitate problem solving and communication - management by objectives (MBO) is presented. Some problems of communication and emotion management that MBO does not address directly are considered. Models for promoting mature, constructive and satisfying emotional relationships among group members are discussed.

  20. Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Lebrun, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

  1. Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

    2015-12-01

    Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

  2. Autonoetic consciousness: Reconsidering the role of episodic memory in future-oriented self-projection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Stanley B

    2016-01-01

    Following the seminal work of Ingvar (1985. "Memory for the future": An essay on the temporal organization of conscious awareness. Human Neurobiology, 4, 127-136), Suddendorf (1994. The discovery of the fourth dimension: Mental time travel and human evolution. Master's thesis. University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand), and Tulving (1985. Memory and consciousness. Canadian Psychology/PsychologieCanadienne, 26, 1-12), exploration of the ability to anticipate and prepare for future contingencies that cannot be known with certainty has grown into a thriving research enterprise. A fundamental tenet of this line of inquiry is that future-oriented mental time travel, in most of its presentations, is underwritten by a property or an extension of episodic recollection. However, a careful conceptual analysis of exactly how episodic memory functions in this capacity has yet to be undertaken. In this paper I conduct such an analysis. Based on conceptual, phenomenological, and empirical considerations, I conclude that the autonoetic component of episodic memory, not episodic memory per se, is the causally determinative factor enabling an individual to project him or herself into a personal future.

  3. Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2017-04-01

    Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

  4. Projecting the Future for Design Science Research: An Action‐Case Based Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baskerville, Richard; Pries-Heje, Jan

    2015-01-01

    and theories appears to be a key challenge. In this paper we commence with a DESRIST paper from 2012 that instantiated design principles in an artifact for a bank. That paper included plans and techniques for future use of its principles (propagation), including prescriptions for a five-phase adoption process...... or theories have stimulated many actual projections. We demonstrate these concepts in a case study of propagation: a chemical manufacturer and service provider that adopted the design principles arising from that 2012 DESRIST banking-based design science research. We conclude that generalizability is too well...

  5. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Aden, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Simpkins, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Argo, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-03-01

    The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  6. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M.; Mai, T.; Newes, E.; Aden, A.; Warner, E.; Uriarte, C.; Inman, D.; Simpkins, T.; Argo, A.

    2013-03-01

    The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  7. Earth BioGenome Project: Sequencing life for the future of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewin, Harris A; Robinson, Gene E; Kress, W John; Baker, William J; Coddington, Jonathan; Crandall, Keith A; Durbin, Richard; Edwards, Scott V; Forest, Félix; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Goldstein, Melissa M; Grigoriev, Igor V; Hackett, Kevin J; Haussler, David; Jarvis, Erich D; Johnson, Warren E; Patrinos, Aristides; Richards, Stephen; Castilla-Rubio, Juan Carlos; van Sluys, Marie-Anne; Soltis, Pamela S; Xu, Xun; Yang, Huanming; Zhang, Guojie

    2018-04-24

    Increasing our understanding of Earth's biodiversity and responsibly stewarding its resources are among the most crucial scientific and social challenges of the new millennium. These challenges require fundamental new knowledge of the organization, evolution, functions, and interactions among millions of the planet's organisms. Herein, we present a perspective on the Earth BioGenome Project (EBP), a moonshot for biology that aims to sequence, catalog, and characterize the genomes of all of Earth's eukaryotic biodiversity over a period of 10 years. The outcomes of the EBP will inform a broad range of major issues facing humanity, such as the impact of climate change on biodiversity, the conservation of endangered species and ecosystems, and the preservation and enhancement of ecosystem services. We describe hurdles that the project faces, including data-sharing policies that ensure a permanent, freely available resource for future scientific discovery while respecting access and benefit sharing guidelines of the Nagoya Protocol. We also describe scientific and organizational challenges in executing such an ambitious project, and the structure proposed to achieve the project's goals. The far-reaching potential benefits of creating an open digital repository of genomic information for life on Earth can be realized only by a coordinated international effort.

  8. Acceptability of the Urban Family Medicine Project among Physicians: A Cross-Sectional Study of Medical Offices, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kor, Elham Movahed; Rashidian, Arash; Hosseini, Mostafa; Azar, Farbod Ebadi Fard; Arab, Mohammad

    2016-10-01

    It is essential to organize private physicians in urban areas by developing urban family medicine in Iran. Acceptance of this project is currently low among physicians. The present research determined the factors affecting acceptability of the Urban Family Medicine Project among physicians working in the private sector of Mazandaran and Fars provinces in Iran. This descriptive-analytical and cross-sectional study was conducted in Mazandaran and Fars provinces. The target population was all physicians working in private offices in these regions. The sample size was calculated to be 860. The instrument contained 70 items that were modified in accordance with feedback from eight healthcare managers and a pilot sample of 50 physicians. Data was analyzed using the LISREL 8.80. The response rate was 82.21% and acceptability was almost 50% for all domains. The fit indices of the structural model were the chi-square to degree-of-freedom (2.79), normalized fit index (0.98), non-normalized fit index (0.99), comparative fit index (0.99), and root mean square error of approximation (0.05). Training facilities had no significant direct effect on acceptability; however, workload had a direct negative effect on acceptability. Other factors had direct positive effects on acceptability. Specification of the factors relating to acceptance of the project among private physicians is required to develop the project in urban areas. It is essential to upgrade the payment system, remedy cultural barriers, decrease the workload, improve the scope of practice and working conditions, and improve collaboration between healthcare professionals.

  9. Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudeepkumar, B. L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza

    2018-02-01

    The effect of global climate change on Indian summer monsoon has been analysed with special emphasis on active-break cycle. The changes in intensity and duration of active and break monsoon conditions towards the end of the century are studied by using 850 hPa zonal circulations. The analysis is carried out using twenty year climatology of historical period (1986-2005) and future projections (2080-2099) simulated as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Models are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The models that effectively capture the circulation pattern of monsoon (JJAS) are considered for assessing the future climate in RCP 4.5 scenario. They are CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. During the southwest monsoon period, the ensemble mean of models projects a strengthening of the wind speed towards north (north of 15°N) and weakening to the southern region (especially south of 12°N) which facilitates wetting of northern Indian regions and drying of southern peninsular regions. In the case of active-break conditions, the active spells are found to be strengthening over northern India and weakening over the peninsular India, the break spells intensify over southern tip of peninsular India indicating intense breaks. Increased propensity of short intense active days and decreased propensity of long active days are also projected by the models. The number of break spells does not show any significant changes.

  10. Future projection of design storms using a GCM-informed weather generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    KIm, T. W.; Wi, S.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Valdés, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    The rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are one of the most common tools used to provide planners with a description of the frequency of extreme rainfall events of various intensities and durations. Therefore deriving appropriate IDF estimates is important to avoid malfunctions of water structures that cause huge damage. Evaluating IDF estimates in the context of climate change has become more important because projections from climate models suggest that the frequency of intense rainfall events will increase in the future due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the Bartlett-Lewis (BL) stochastic rainfall model is employed to generate annual maximum series of various sub-daily durations for test basins of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) project, and to derive the IDF curves in the context of climate changes projected by the North American Regional Climate Change (NARCCAP) models. From our results, it has been found that the observed annual rainfall maximum series is reasonably represented by the synthetic annual maximum series generated by the BL model. The observed data is perturbed by change factors to incorporate the NARCCAP climate change scenarios into the IDF estimates. The future IDF curves show a significant difference from the historical IDF curves calculated for the period 1968-2000. Overall, the projected IDF curves show an increasing trend over time. The impacts of changes in extreme rainfall on the hydrologic response of the MOPEX basins are also explored. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-NH-2015-79] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

  11. ACSEPT a European project for a new step in the future demonstration of advanced fuel processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourg, S.; Hill, C.; Caravaca, C.; Espartero, A.; Rhodes, C.; Taylor, R.; Harrison, M.; EKBERG, C.; GEIST, A.; Modolo, G.; Cassayre, L.; Malmbeck, R.; De Angelis, G.; Bouvet, S.; Klaassen, F.

    2010-01-01

    For more than fifteen years, a European scientific community has joined its effort to develop and optimise processes for the partitioning of actinides from fission products. In an international context of 'nuclear renaissance', the upcoming of a new generation of nuclear reactor (Gen IV) will require the development of associated advanced closed fuel cycles which answer the needs of a sustainable nuclear energy: the minimization of the production of long lived radioactive waste but also the optimization of the use of natural resources with an increased resistance to proliferation. Actually, Partitioning and Transmutation (P and T), associated to a multi-recycling of all transuranics (TRUs), should play a key role in the development of this sustainable nuclear energy. By joining together 34 Partners coming from European universities, nuclear research bodies and major industrial players in a multidisciplinary consortium, the FP7 EURATOM-Fission Collaborative Project ACSEPT (Actinide recycling by Separation and Transmutation), started in 2008 for four year duration, provides the sound basis and fundamental improvements for future demonstrations of fuel treatment in strong connection with fuel fabrication techniques. Consistently with potentially viable recycling strategies, ACSEPT therefore provides a structured R and D framework to develop chemical separation processes compatible with fuel fabrication techniques, with a view to their future demonstration at the pilot level. ACSEPT is organized into three technical domains: (i) Considering technically mature aqueous separation processes, ACSEPT works to optimize and select the most promising ones dedicated either to actinide partitioning or to group actinide separation. (ii) Concerning high temperature pyrochemical separation processes, ACSEPT focuses on the enhancement of the two reference cores of process selected within previous projects. R and D efforts are now devoted to key scientific and technical points

  12. Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, Carol; Collerton, Joanna C; Davies, Karen; Kingston, Andrew; Robinson, Louise A; Eccles, Martin P; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen; James, Oliver F W; Kirkwood, Tom B L; Bond, John

    2011-05-04

    Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care. Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender. Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030. This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the number requiring 24-hour care due to

  13. Gigantism of infrastructure and urban microsystems The role of the project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Falzetti

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available If there is a solidarity between nature and landscape, not so reassuring is 'the relationship between landscape and infrastructure, or landscape and urbanized areas, too often based on functional reasons that do not provide ' the value of natural places and 'the needs of vulnerable urban areas as well.

  14. Urbanization in the US: land use trends, impacts on forest area, projections, and policy considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph Alig

    2010-01-01

    Since World War II, socio-economic drivers of US urbanization such as population totals and personal income levels have increased substantially. Human land use is the primary force driving changes in forest ecosystem attributes including forest area, which is the focus of this paper. The percentage of the US population residing in urban areas is higher than that in...

  15. Alien plants in urban nature reserves: from red-list species to future invaders

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jarošík, Vojtěch; Pyšek, Petr; Kadlec, T.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 10, - (2011), s. 27-46 ISSN 1619-0033 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/09/0563; GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : plant invasions * nature reserve * threatened species Subject RIV: EF - Botanics

  16. Projected changes in the future distribution and production of sessile oak forests near the xeric limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor

    2017-04-01

    As a result of regional climate change, most European countries are experiencing an increase in mean annual temperature and CO2 concentration and a decrease in mean annual precipitation. In low-elevation areas in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is a limiting factor, the projected climate change threatens the health, production, and potential distribution of forest ecosystems. The intensive summer droughts and commonly occurring extreme weather events create negative influences that cause health declines, changes in yield potential, and tree mortality. Due to the observed damages, attention has been focused on these problems. The impacts of climatic extremes cause difficulties in forest management; these difficulties occur more frequently in Hungary, which is a region that is the most sensitive to climatic extremes. Regional climate model simulations project that the frequency of extremely high temperatures and long-term dry periods will increase; both of these factors have negative effects on future tree species distribution and production. Thus, the aim of our study is to utilize the sessile oak (Quercus petraea) as a climate indicator tree species to investigate potential future distribution and estimate changes in growth trends. For future spatial distribution, we used the Fuzzy membership distribution model in a new Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed for the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Through study techniques we can employ DSS, which contains various environmental layers (topography, vegetation, past and projected future climate, soils, and hydrology), to create probability distribution maps. The results, based on 12 regional climate model simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org), show that the area of sessile oak forests is shrinking continuously and will continue to do so to the end of the 21st century. For future production estimations, we analysed intensive long-term growth monitoring network plots that were established in

  17. Building an urban LTSER: the case of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study and the D.C./B.C. ULTRA-Ex Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Morgan Grove; Steward T.A. Pickett; Ali Whitmer; Mary L. Cadenasso

    2013-01-01

    There is growing scientific interest, practical need, and substantial support for understanding urban and urbanising areas in terms of their long-term social and ecological trajectories: past, present, and future. Long-term social-ecological research (LTSER) platforms and programmes in urban areas are needed to meet these interests and needs. We describe our...

  18. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P; Kunst, Anton E

    2011-04-01

    Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild disability is not. Using data from the GLOBE study (Gezondheid en Levensomstandigheden Bevolking Eindhoven en omstreken), the association of three levels of self-reported disabilities in activities of daily living with age and proximity to death was studied using logistic regression models. Regression estimates were used to estimate the number of life years with disability for life spans of 75 and 85 years. Odds ratios of 0.976 (not significant) for mild disability, 1.137 for moderate disability, and 1.231 for severe disability showed a stronger effect of proximity to death for more severe levels of disability. A 10-year increase of life span was estimated to result in a substantial expansion of mild disability (4.6 years) compared with a small expansion of moderate (0.7 years) and severe (0.9 years) disability. These findings support the theory of a dynamic equilibrium. Projections of the future burden of disability could be substantially improved by connecting to this theory and incorporating information on proximity to death. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu

    2015-02-01

    Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. New Futures for Older Ports: Synergistic Development in a Global Urban System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joe Ravetz

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Port cities are on the front-line of a changing global urban system. There are problems from restructuring of trade, logistics and ship-building, creating economic dependency, social exclusion and cultural destruction. Meanwhile, there exists new opportunities in heritage tourism, cultural industries and ecological restoration, but these opportunities often have negative impacts. This paper addresses the question of how port cities can steer from negative to positive development paths and outcomes. It sets out a way of working with inter-connected economic, social, political and technological factors—a ‘synergistic’ approach to mapping of problems and design of policy responses. Looking at three contrasting examples of port cities—Liverpool, Dubai and Mauritius—we can compare the inter-connected dynamics of growth and decline. Then we can understand the inter-connected factors of successful regeneration and sustainable prosperity, not as linear ‘policy fixes’, but more like synergistic processes of learning, innovation and capacity building. These call for new models for creative innovation in social and community enterprise: cultural heritage both old and new; new social finance and investment; socio-ecological restoration with participative governance, etc. Such pathways and opportunities are now emerging in many different locations; this paper provides methods and tools to understand them and promote them.

  1. Airborne biological hazards and urban transport infrastructure: current challenges and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasir, Zaheer Ahmad; Campos, Luiza Cintra; Christie, Nicola; Colbeck, Ian

    2016-08-01

    Exposure to airborne biological hazards in an ever expanding urban transport infrastructure and highly diverse mobile population is of growing concern, in terms of both public health and biosecurity. The existing policies and practices on design, construction and operation of these infrastructures may have severe implications for airborne disease transmission, particularly, in the event of a pandemic or intentional release of biological of agents. This paper reviews existing knowledge on airborne disease transmission in different modes of transport, highlights the factors enhancing the vulnerability of transport infrastructures to airborne disease transmission, discusses the potential protection measures and identifies the research gaps in order to build a bioresilient transport infrastructure. The unification of security and public health research, inclusion of public health security concepts at the design and planning phase, and a holistic system approach involving all the stakeholders over the life cycle of transport infrastructure hold the key to mitigate the challenges posed by biological hazards in the twenty-first century transport infrastructure.

  2. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

    2008-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

  3. Finding Futures: A Spatio-Visual Experiment In Participatory Engagement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia; Gano, Gretchen

    2013-01-01

    The Finding Futures Project explores innovative ways of deliberating the future of cities through an emphasis on embodied spatio-visual engagement with urban landscapes. The first instantiation of the project - which took place in Lisbon in 2011 - is reported through a discussion of the project's...

  4. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  5. Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisner, Courtney P.; Wood, Joshua C.; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S.; Robin Buell, C.; Winkler, Julie A.

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

  6. Projecting future summer mortality due to ambient ozone concentration and temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae Young; Lee, Soo Hyun; Hong, Sung-Chul; Kim, Ho

    2017-05-01

    Climate change is known to affect the human health both directly by increased heat stress and indirectly by altering environments, particularly by altering the rate of ambient ozone formation in the atmosphere. Thus, the risks of climate change may be underestimated if the effects of both future temperature and ambient ozone concentrations are not considered. This study presents a projection of future summer non-accidental mortality in seven major cities of South Korea during the 2020s (2016-2025) and 2050s (2046-2055) considering changes in temperature and ozone concentration, which were predicted by using the HadGEM3-RA model and Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System, respectively. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were considered. The result shows that non-accidental summer mortality will increase by 0.5%, 0.0%, 0.4%, and 0.4% in the 2020s, 1.9%, 1.5%, 1.2%, and 4.4% in the 2050s due to temperature change compared to the baseline mortality during 2001-2010, under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the mortality will increase by 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 0.5% in the 2020s, and 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% in the 2050s due to ozone concentration change. The projection result shows that the future summer morality in South Korea is increased due to changes in both temperature and ozone, and the magnitude of ozone-related increase is much smaller than that of temperature-related increase, especially in the 2050s.

  7. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

    2013-12-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

  8. Urban sprawl and growth management - drivers, impacts and responses in selected European and US cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2016-01-01

    Urban growth management has become a common term to circumscribe strategies and tools to regulate urban land use in metropolitan areas. It is particularly used to counteract negative impacts of urban sprawl but also to frame future urban development. We discuss recent challenges of urban growth...... in 6 European and 2 US American city-regions. The paper compares the urban development focusing on a quantification of drivers and effects of urban growth and a qualitative analysis of the applied urban growth management tools. We build our analysis on findings from the EU-FP6 project PLUREL...

  9. Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Hanqing; Liu, Chun; Lu, Yanyu; He, Dongyan; Tian, Hong

    2017-06-01

    As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than ever before http://cn.bing.com/dict/search?q=.&FORM=BDVSP6&mkt=zh-cn. The RB temperatures have caused severe impacts on ecosystems and human society. Here, we address changes in RB temperature events occurring over China in the past (1961-2014) as well as future projections (2006-2100) using observational data and the newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of RB events has a significant multi-decadal variability in China, and the intensity expresses a strong decrease from 1961 to 2014. However, more frequent RB events occurred in mid-eastern and northeastern China over last 30 years (1981-2010). Comparisons with observational data indicate multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the CMIP5 model perform well in simulating RB events for the historical run period (1961-2005). CMIP5 MME shows a relatively larger uncertainty for the change in intensity. From 2051 to 2100, fewer RB events are projected to occur in most parts of China according to RCP 2.6 scenarios. Over the longer period from 2006 to 2100, a remarkable increase is expected for the entire country according to RCP 8.5 scenarios and the maximum numbers of RB events increase by approximately 600 per year at end of twenty-first century.

  10. Energy: options for the future. Curriculum development project for high school teachers. Final report. [Packet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carroll, T.O.

    1978-04-01

    Recent state and regional energy crises demonstrate the delicate balance between energy systems, the environment, and the economy. Indeed, the interaction between these three elements of society is very complex. This project develops curriculum materials that would better provide students with an understanding and awareness of fundamental principles of energy supply, conversion processes, and utilization now and in the future. The project had two specific objectives: to transfer knowledge of energy systems, analysis techniques, and advanced technologies from the energy analyst community to the teacher participants; and to involve teachers in the preparation of modular case studies on energy issues for use within the classroom. These curriculum modules are intended to enhance the teacher's ability to provide energy-related education to students within his or her own academic setting. The project is organized as a three-week summer program, as noted in the flyer (Appendix A). Mornings are spent in seminars with energy and environmental specialists (their handout lecture notes are included as Appendix B); afternoons are devoted to high school curriculum development based on the seminar discussions. The curriculum development is limited to five areas: conservation, electricity demand scheduling, energy in the food system, new technologies (solar, wind, biomass), and environment. Appendix C consists of one-day lession plans in these areas.

  11. Capital planning for operating theatres based on projecting future theatre requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Jennifer A; Tyler, Peter; Jayasinha, Hirani; Meleady, Kathleen T; Jones, Neill

    2011-05-01

    During 2006, NSW and ACT Health Departments jointly engaged KPMG to develop an Operating Theatre Requirements' Projection Model and an accompanying planning guideline. A research scan was carried out to identify drivers of surgical demand, theatre capacity and theatre performance, as well as locating existing approaches to modelling operating theatre requirements for planning purposes. The project delivered a Microsoft Excel-based model for projecting future operating theatre requirements, together with an accompanying guideline for use of the model and interpretation of its outputs. It provides a valuable addition to the suite of tools available to Health staff for service and capital planning. The model operates with several limitations, largely due to being data dependent, and the state and completeness of available theatre activity data. However, the operational flexibility built into the model allows users to compensate for these limitations, on a case by case basis, when the user has access to suitable, local data. The design flexibility of the model means that updating the model as improved data become available is not difficult; resulting in revisions being able to be made quickly, and disseminated to users rapidly.

  12. Risk Management in Future Romanian E-Government 2.0 Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didraga Otniel

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available E-government public services in Romania must follow unitary procedures considering the new requirements of the European Union from the Digital Agenda for Europe Strategy 2020. E-government 2.0 has to be implemented because of the cultural and behavioral transformations in the interaction between governments and users of e-services. E-government 2.0 projects use tools and techniques of social media to accomplish their goals. This article examines the possible risk categories and the risk management procedures needed to mitigate risks in future Romanian e-government projects, according to the strategic lines of development for the Digital Agenda. We propose a risk management plan for the e-government lines of action within the strategic lines of development that includes identifying, assessing, and mitigating the risks. New and modernized government services through e-government 2.0 projects that apply risk management will bring a significant improvement in how citizens and businesses relate to government and will increase the use of e-government services.

  13. The IAEA international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles (INPRO): current and future activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kupitz, J.; Depisch, F.; Kuznetsov, V.

    2004-01-01

    Upon resolutions of the IAEA General Conference in 2000, the IAEA initiated International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO). The objective of INPRO, which comprises two phases, is to support sustainable deployment and use of nuclear technology to meet the global energy needs in the next 50 years and beyond. During Phase I, work is subdivided into two sub phases. Phase 1A focused on determining user requirements in the areas of economics, environment, safety, proliferation resistance, and recommendations in the area of so-called crosscutting issues, which are legal, institutional, and infrastructure issues accompanying the deployment of nuclear power, and is targeted at developing a methodology and guidelines for the assessment of various nuclear reactor and fuel cycle concepts and approaches. Phase 1A was finalised in June 2003 with its results now available as IAEA TECDOC-1362. Phase 1B has started in July 2003. During this phase interested Member States are performing case studies to validate the INPRO methodology and, later on, to assess selected innovative nuclear energy systems using the updated INPRO methodology. In accordance with the INPRO Terms of Reference, after successful completion of Phase I, Phase II may be initiated to examine the feasibility of commencing international projects on innovative nuclear energy systems. The paper contains a description of the current and future activities of INPRO and summarizes the outcome of the project.(author)

  14. Status and future transition of rapid urbanizing landscape in central Western Ghats - CA based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharath, S..; Rajan, K. S.; Ramachandra, T. V.

    2014-11-01

    The land use changes in forested landscape are highly complex and dynamic, affected by the natural, socio-economic, cultural, political and other factors. The remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques coupled with multi-criteria evaluation functions such as Markov-cellular automata (CA-Markov) model helps in analysing intensity, extent and future forecasting of human activities affecting the terrestrial biosphere. Karwar taluk of Central Western Ghats in Karnataka state, India has seen rapid transitions in its forest cover due to various anthropogenic activities, primarily driven by major industrial activities. A study based on Landsat and IRS derived data along with CA-Markov method has helped in characterizing the patterns and trends of land use changes over a period of 2004-2013, expected transitions was predicted for a set of scenarios through 2013-2022. The analysis reveals the loss of pristine forest cover from 75.51% to 67.36% (1973 to 2013) and increase in agriculture land as well as built-up area of 8.65% (2013), causing impact on local flora and fauna. The other factors driving these changes are the aggregated level of demand for land, local and regional effects of land use activities such as deforestation, improper practices in expansion of agriculture and infrastructure development, deteriorating natural resources availability. The spatio temporal models helped in visualizing on-going changes apart from prediction of likely changes. The CA-Markov based analysis provides us insights into the localized changes impacting these regions and can be useful in developing appropriate mitigation management approaches based on the modelled future impacts. This necessitates immediate measures for minimizing the future impacts.

  15. Contracting communities: Conceptualizing Community Benefits Agreements to improve citizen involvement in urban development projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen-Jansen, Leonie; Veen, van der Menno

    2017-01-01

    Contractual agreements are becoming increasingly important for city governments seeking to manage urban development. Contractual governance involves direct relations between the local state and different public and private actors and citizens. Although abundant literature exists on public–private

  16. Towards a Social-Ecological Urbanism: Co-Producing Knowledge through Design in the Albano Resilient Campus Project in Stockholm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Erixon Aalto

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available If we are to promote urban sustainability and resilience, social-ecological knowledge must be better integrated in urban planning and design projects. Due to gaps in the two cultures of thinking that are associated with the disciplines of ecology and design, such integration has, however, proven to be challenging. In mainstream practice, ecologists often act as sub-consultants; they are seldom engaged in the creative and conceptual phases of the process. Conversely, research aiming to bridge the gap between design and ecology has tended to be dominated by a relatively static and linear outlook on what the design process is, and what it could be. Further, few concrete examples of the co-production of ecological and design knowledge exist. In this paper, we give an account of a transdisciplinary design proposal for Albano Resilient Campus in Stockholm, discussing how design—seen as a process and an assemblage of artifacts—can act as a framework for co-producing knowledge and operationalizing concepts of resilience and ecosystem services. Through a design-based and action-oriented approach, we discuss how such a collaborative design process may integrate ecological knowledge into urban design through three concrete practices: (a iterative prototyping; (b generative matrix models; and, (c legible, open-ended, comprehensive narratives. In the conclusion, we sketch the contours of a social-ecological urbanism, speculating on possible broader and changed roles for ecologists, designers, and the associated actors within this framework.

  17. Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

    2011-12-01

    In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

  18. Effects of Episodic Future Thinking and Self-Projection on Children's Prospective Memory Performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anett Kretschmer-Trendowicz

    Full Text Available The present study is the first to investigate the benefits of episodic future thinking (EFT at encoding on prospective memory (PM in preschool (age: M = 66.34 months, SD = 3.28 and primary school children (age: M = 88.36 months, SD = 3.12. A second aim was to examine if self-projection influences the possible effects of EFT instructions. PM was assessed using a standard PM paradigm in children with a picture-naming task as the ongoing activity in which the PM task was embedded. Further, two first- and two second-order ToM tasks were administered as indicator of children's self-projection abilities. Forty-one preschoolers and 39 school-aged children were recruited. Half of the participants in each age group were instructed to use EFT as a strategy to encode the PM task, while the others received standard PM instructions. Results revealed a significant age effect, with school-aged children significantly outperforming preschoolers and a significant effect of encoding condition with overall better performance when receiving EFT instructions compared to the standard encoding condition. Even though the interaction between age group and encoding condition was not significant, planned comparisons revealed first evidence that compared to the younger age group, older children's PM benefitted more from EFT instructions during intention encoding. Moreover, results showed that although self-projection had a significant impact on PM performance, it did not influence the effects of EFT instructions. Overall, results indicate that children can use EFT encoding strategies to improve their PM performance once EFT abilities are sufficiently developed. Further, they provide first evidence that in addition to executive functions, which have already been shown to influence the development of PM across childhood, self-projection seems to be another key mechanism underlying this development.

  19. Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

    2011-01-01

    California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  20. Quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions at the urban scale: Results from the Indianapolis Flux Project (INFLUX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnbull, J. C.; Cambaliza, M. L.; Sweeney, C.; Karion, A.; Newberger, T.; Tans, P. P.; Lehman, S.; Davis, K. J.; Miles, N. L.; Richardson, S.; Lauvaux, T.; Shepson, P.; Gurney, K. R.; Song, Y.; Razlivanov, I. N.

    2012-12-01

    Emissions of fossil fuel CO2 (CO2ff) from anthropogenic sources are the primary driver of observed increases in the atmospheric CO2 burden, and hence global warming. Quantification of the magnitude of fossil fuel CO2 emissions is vital to improving our understanding of the global and regional carbon cycle, and independent evaluation of reported emissions is essential to the success of any emission reduction efforts. The urban scale is of particular interest, because ~75% CO2ff is emitted from urban regions, and cities are leading the way in attempts to reduce emissions. Measurements of 14CO2 can be used to determine CO2ff, yet existing 14C measurement techniques require laborious laboratory analysis and measurements are often insufficient for inferring an urban emission flux. This presentation will focus on how 14CO2 measurements can be combined with those of more easily measured ancillary tracers to obtain high resolution CO2ff mixing ratio estimates and then infer the emission flux. A pilot study over Sacramento, California showed strong correlations between CO2ff and carbon monoxide (CO) and demonstrated an ability to quantify the urban flux, albeit with large uncertainties. The Indianapolis Flux Project (INFLUX) aims to develop and assess methods to quantify urban greenhouse gas emissions. Indianapolis was chosen as an ideal test case because it has relatively straightforward meteorology; a contained, isolated, urban region; and substantial and well-known fossil fuel CO2 emissions. INFLUX incorporates atmospheric measurements of a suite of gases and isotopes including 14C from light aircraft and from a network of existing tall towers surrounding the Indianapolis urban area. The recently added CO2ff content is calculated from measurements of 14C in CO2, and then convolved with atmospheric transport models and ancillary data to estimate the urban CO2ff emission flux. Significant innovations in sample collection include: collection of hourly averaged samples to

  1. Proposals for future activities agreed upon at the seminar on wastewater treatment in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    The programme of the seminar was divided into three different sections: - Sewerage systems, - Discharge of industrial wastewater to municipal sewerage systems, - Reduction of nitrogen. For each subject the participants of the seminar agreed upon the following proposal for future activities: Sewerage systems: a) Combined sewer overflows (CSO). Brief state-of-the-art reports should be compiled by the Contracting Parties. The reports should provide information on: - extent of combined sewers (in % of sewered area), - design practices including flow equalization, - rates of inflow/infiltration, - pollution due to CSO, - current research, - trends. A compilation of these reports may hopefully lead to the derivation of suitable effluent standards, which may be expressed as frequencies, total volumes or total amount of pollution load. The effluent standards may be expressed as monthly to yearly values

  2. Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Preston, Samuel H.; Stokes, Andrew; Mehta, Neil K.; Cao, Bochen

    2013-01-01

    We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010?2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and ...

  3. The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available

  4. Comprehensive assessment of the efficiency of high-rise construction projects in the form of urban blocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlov, Alexandr; Chubarkina, Irina

    2018-03-01

    The paper is dedicated to main modern trends in the area of high-rise construction. The classification of buildings and structures by height is given. Functional distribution by the height of buildings is presented. A review of positive and negative aspects of high-rise construction from the economic point of view is given. On the basis of the data obtained, it is proposed to build up residential microdistricts in the form of urban blocks. A plan of microdistricts development is presented. It takes into account urban blocks and includes their main characteristics. An economic and mathematical model was developed to carry out a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of high-rise construction projects.

  5. Differences between urban and rural hedges in England revealed by a citizen science project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, Laura; Sparks, Tim H; Araya, Yoseph; Harvey, Martin; Ansine, Janice

    2016-07-22

    Hedges are both ecologically and culturally important and are a distinctive feature of the British landscape. However the overall length of hedges across Great Britain is decreasing. Current challenges in studying hedges relate to the dominance of research on rural, as opposed to urban, hedges, and their variability and geographical breadth. To help address these challenges and to educate the public on the importance of hedge habitats for wildlife, in 2010 the Open Air Laboratories (OPAL) programme coordinated a hedge-focused citizen science survey. Results from 2891 surveys were analysed. Woody plant species differed significantly between urban and rural areas. Beech, Holly, Ivy, Laurel, Privet and Yew were more commonly recorded in urban hedges whereas Blackthorn, Bramble, Dog Rose, Elder and Hawthorn were recorded more often in rural hedges. Urban and rural differences were shown for some groups of invertebrates. Ants, earwigs and shieldbugs were recorded more frequently in urban hedges whereas blowflies, caterpillars, harvestmen, other beetles, spiders and weevils were recorded more frequently in rural hedges. Spiders were the most frequently recorded invertebrate across all surveys. The presence of hard surfaces adjacent to the hedge was influential on hedge structure, number and diversity of plant species, amount of food available for wildlife and invertebrate number and diversity. In urban hedges with one adjacent hard surface, the food available for wildlife was significantly reduced and in rural hedges, one adjacent hard surface affected the diversity of invertebrates. This research highlights that urban hedges may be important habitats for wildlife and that hard surfaces may have an impact on both the number and diversity of plant species and the number and diversity of invertebrates. This study demonstrates that citizen science programmes that focus on hedge surveillance can work and have the added benefit of educating the public on the importance of

  6. Prevalent vegetation growth enhancement in urban environment

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Zhou, Decheng

    2016-01-01

    Cities experiencing elevated temperature (i.e., urban “heat island” warming), CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the projected average global change are regarded as the “harbingers” of the future global change. It is for this reason that cities have been regarded as ideal natural laboratories for global change studies and particularly valuable to elucidate the potential responses of other nonurban ecosystems to future climate and environmental changes. However, the impacts of urban...

  7. Future land use and concerns about the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory: A survey of urban dwellers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, J.; Roush, D.; Wartenberg, D.; Gochfeld, M.

    1999-01-01

    The authors examined environmental concerns and future land-use preferences of 487 people attending the Boise River Festival in Boise, Idaho, USA, about the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (NEEL), owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE). They were particularly interested in the perceptions of urban dwellers living at some distance from the facility, since attitudes and perceptions are usually examined for people living near such facilities. More than 50% of the people were most worried about contamination and about waste storage and transport, another 23% were concerned about human health and accidents and spills, and the rest listed other concerns such as jobs and the economy of education. When given a list of possible concerns, accidents and spills, storage of current nuclear materials, and storage of additional nuclear materials were rated the highest. Thus both open-ended and structured questions identified nuclear storage and accidents and spills as the most important concerns, even for people living far from a DOE site. The highest rated future land used were National Environmental Research Park, recreation, and returning the land to the Shoshone-Bannock tribes; the lowest rated future land uses were homes and increased nuclear waste storage. These relative rankings are similar to those obtained for other Idahoans living closer to the site and for the people living near the Savannah River Site. The concern expressed about accidents and spills and waste storage translated into a desire not to see additional waste brought to INEEL and a low rating for using INEEL for building homes

  8. Scheduling the Remediation of Port Hope: Logistical and Regulatory Challenges of a Multiple Site Urban Remediation Project - 13119

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson Jones, Andrea; Lee, Angela; Palmeter, Tim

    2013-01-01

    The Port Hope Project is part of the larger CAN$1.28 billion Port Hope Area Initiative (PHAI), a community-based program for the development and implementation of a safe, local, long-term management solution for historic Low-Level Radioactive Waste (LLRW) in the Municipalities of Port Hope and Clarington, Ontario, Canada. Atomic Energy of Canada (AECL) is the Project Proponent, Public Works and Government Services (PWGSC) is managing the procurement of services and the MMM Group Limited - Conestoga Rovers and Associates Joint Venture (MMM-CRA Joint Venture) is providing detailed design and construction oversight and administration services for the Project. The Port Hope Project includes the construction of a long-term waste management facility (LTWMF) in the Municipality of Port Hope and the remediation of 18 (eighteen) large-scale LLRW, numerous small-scale sites still being identified and industrial sites within the Municipality. The total volume to be remediated is over one million cubic metres and will come from sites that include temporary storage sites, ravines, beaches, parks, private commercial and residential properties and vacant industrial sites all within the urban area of Port Hope. Challenges that will need to be overcome during this 10 year project include: - Requirements stipulated by the Environmental Assessment (EA) that affect Project logistics and schedule. - Coordination of site remediation with the construction schedule at the LTWMF. - Physical constraints on transport routes and at sites affecting production rates. - Despite being an urban undertaking, seasonal constrains for birds and fish (i.e., nesting and spawning seasons). - Municipal considerations. - Site-specific constraints. - Site interdependencies exist requiring consideration in the schedule. Several sites require the use of an adjacent site for staging. (authors)

  9. Scheduling the Remediation of Port Hope: Logistical and Regulatory Challenges of a Multiple Site Urban Remediation Project - 13119

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson Jones, Andrea; Lee, Angela [MMM Group Limited, 100 Commerce Valley Drive West, Thornhill, Ontario, L3T 0A1 (Canada); Palmeter, Tim [Public Works and Government Services Canada, 4900 Yonge Street, Toronto, Ontario, M2N 6A6 (Canada)

    2013-07-01

    The Port Hope Project is part of the larger CAN$1.28 billion Port Hope Area Initiative (PHAI), a community-based program for the development and implementation of a safe, local, long-term management solution for historic Low-Level Radioactive Waste (LLRW) in the Municipalities of Port Hope and Clarington, Ontario, Canada. Atomic Energy of Canada (AECL) is the Project Proponent, Public Works and Government Services (PWGSC) is managing the procurement of services and the MMM Group Limited - Conestoga Rovers and Associates Joint Venture (MMM-CRA Joint Venture) is providing detailed design and construction oversight and administration services for the Project. The Port Hope Project includes the construction of a long-term waste management facility (LTWMF) in the Municipality of Port Hope and the remediation of 18 (eighteen) large-scale LLRW, numerous small-scale sites still being identified and industrial sites within the Municipality. The total volume to be remediated is over one million cubic metres and will come from sites that include temporary storage sites, ravines, beaches, parks, private commercial and residential properties and vacant industrial sites all within the urban area of Port Hope. Challenges that will need to be overcome during this 10 year project include: - Requirements stipulated by the Environmental Assessment (EA) that affect Project logistics and schedule. - Coordination of site remediation with the construction schedule at the LTWMF. - Physical constraints on transport routes and at sites affecting production rates. - Despite being an urban undertaking, seasonal constrains for birds and fish (i.e., nesting and spawning seasons). - Municipal considerations. - Site-specific constraints. - Site interdependencies exist requiring consideration in the schedule. Several sites require the use of an adjacent site for staging. (authors)

  10. Can Strategic Spatial Planning Contribute to Land Degradation Reduction in Urban Regions? State of the Art and Future Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Oliveira

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Land degradation is becoming a serious environmental issue threatening fertile agricultural soils and other natural resources. There are many driving forces behind land degradation. The expansion of artificial surfaces due to various economic activities, such as housing, industry, and transport infrastructure, known as soil sealing, constitutes one of the most intensive forms of land degradation in urban regions. Measures to halt and reverse land degradation require both strong land-use management policies, as well as effective spatial planning mechanisms. In this regard, strategic spatial planning has been increasingly practised in many urban regions worldwide, as a means to achieve sustainable land-use patterns and to guide the location of development and physical infrastructures. It is reasonable, therefore, to expect that strategic spatial planning can counteract the outlined undesired land degradation effects, specifically those resulting from soil sealing. In this paper, we review strategic spatial planning literature published between 1992 and 2017. The focus is on the phenomena causing land degradation that are addressed by strategic spatial planning literature, as well as on the mechanisms describing the role of strategic spatial planning in land degradation reduction. Results show that sustainable development and environmental concerns have become core objectives of strategic planning in recent years, yet references to the drivers of land degradation are rare. The mechanisms that exist are mainly intended to address environmental issues in general, and are not aimed at reducing particular forms of land degradation. The paper concludes by sketching future research directions, intended to support strategic spatial planning and land-use policymaking related to coping with the global phenomenon of land degradation.

  11. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  12. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  13. Flood Frequency Analysis of Future Climate Projections in the Cache Creek Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, I.; Trihn, T.; Ishida, K.; Jang, S.; Kavvas, E.; Kavvas, M. L.

    2014-12-01

    Effects of climate change on hydrologic flow regimes, particularly extreme events, necessitate modeling of future flows to best inform water resources management. Future flow projections may be modeled through the joint use of carbon emission scenarios, general circulation models and watershed models. This research effort ran 13 simulations for carbon emission scenarios (taken from the A1, A2 and B1 families) over the 21st century (2001-2100) for the Cache Creek watershed in Northern California. Atmospheric data from general circulation models, CCSM3 and ECHAM5, were dynamically downscaled to a 9 km resolution using MM5, a regional mesoscale model, before being input into the physically based watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model. Ensemble mean and standard deviation of simulated flows describe the expected hydrologic system response. Frequency histograms and cumulative distribution functions characterize the range of hydrologic responses that may occur. The modeled flow results comprise a dataset suitable for time series and frequency analysis allowing for more robust system characterization, including indices such as the 100 year flood return period. These results are significant for water quality management as the Cache Creek watershed is severely impacted by mercury pollution from historic mining activities. Extreme flow events control mercury fate and transport affecting the downstream water bodies of the Sacramento River and Sacramento- San Joaquin Delta which provide drinking water to over 25 million people.

  14. Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Chen, Dong; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

    2016-01-01

    We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO_2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted. - Temperature increases result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city in Australia.

  15. Current status and future direction of INPRO (International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omoto, Akira; Moriwaki, Masanao; Sugimoto, Jun; Nakai, Ryodai

    2007-01-01

    INPRO is an international forum to consider jointly the international and national actions required to achieve desired innovations in nuclear reactors and fuel cycles so as to ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to a sustainable development of the human, and IAEA becomes the secretariat for INPRO. The number of the members counts 28 by recent participation of Japan and U.S.A. now, and it is a unique forum to bring together both technology users and technology holders, that includes 5 countries which do not still have nuclear power generation. Until now it was phase I, and focused its activities to make clear the desired characteristics of nuclear energy system toward the future, and to develop methodology to evaluate various nuclear energy systems, but it shifted to phase II from July, 2006, and it planned three areas of activities such as improvement of evaluation methodology, institutional/infrastructure oriented activities and a collaborative project of technology development. Current status and future direction of INPRO was presented to encourage Japan in significant contributions of these three areas. (T. Tanaka)

  16. Financing arrangements for nuclear power projects - past and present experience and future expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ispas, G.

    2004-01-01

    The intent of the author of the present paper is to demonstrate, in a practical manner, the role of the past experience and the new approaches of the nuclear projects financing, especially as nuclear generation financing in developing countries involves complex issues that need to be fully understood and dealt with by all the parties involved, namely: high investment costs, generally long construction periods, a high degree of uncertainty with respect to costs and schedule and to public acceptance, particularly because of safety, waste disposal and non-proliferation issues. Moreover, as many associations whose activities consist of ensuring and facilitating at different levels the exchange of knowledge between generations, i.e.: European Nuclear Society (ENS) Young Generation, North American Young Generation in Nuclear (NA-YGN), the goal of the paper is also to outline the importance of the education in nuclear field, i.e. training a young team of specialists to be ready to take over the movement and responsibility in continuing the further development of nuclear program in Romania, mainly with view to the Financing Arrangements for Nuclear Power Projects. The first part of the paper is referring to general financing procedures, while the second part is focusing on a case study related to the: past experience the financing scheme of Cernavoda NPP Unit 1, present or actual experience ongoing financing issues for Cernavoda NPP Unit 2 and potential future shared contribution to the financing of the next Cernavoda NPP units.(author)

  17. Ischaemic heart disease deaths in Brazil: current trends, regional disparities and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha

    2013-09-01

    To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.

  18. Temporal Compounding of Heat Waves in the Present and Projected Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, J. W.; Dessy, J.; Vecchi, G. A.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    The hazard of heat waves is projected to increase significantly with global warming, motivating much recent research characterizing various aspects of these extreme events. One less examined aspect of heat waves is their temporal structure. Here we first modify existing heat wave duration definitions to flexibly account for a variety of possible heat wave temporal structures (sequences of hot and cooler days). We then examine past heat waves associated with high mortality using observational reanalysis data, and note that many past heat waves might be better described as series of hot days compounded together with short breaks of cooler days in between. We employ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate model (GCM) simulations to compare the frequency of these compound heat waves in the present and projected future with higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our results indicate that temporally compound heatwaves will constitute a greater proportion of heat wave risk with global warming. Via examining synthetic autoregressive model data, we propose that this phenomenon is expected when shifting the mean of a time series with some memory and noise. Notably, an increased proportion of compound events implies that vulnerability from prior hot days will play an increasingly large role in heat wave risk, with possible implications for both heat wave-related policy and preparedness.

  19. Projected near-future levels of temperature and pCO2 reduce coral fertilization success.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Albright

    Full Text Available Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2 are projected to contribute to a 1.1-6.4°C rise in global average surface temperatures and a 0.14-0.35 reduction in the average pH of the global surface ocean by 2100. If realized, these changes are expected to have negative consequences for reef-building corals including increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching and reduced rates of calcification and reef accretion. Much less is known regarding the independent and combined effects of temperature and pCO2 on critical early life history processes such as fertilization. Here we show that increases in temperature (+3°C and pCO2 (+400 µatm projected for this century negatively impact fertilization success of a common Indo-Pacific coral species, Acropora tenuis. While maximum fertilization did not differ among treatments, the sperm concentration required to obtain 50% of maximum fertilization increased 6- to 8- fold with the addition of a single factor (temperature or CO2 and nearly 50- fold when both factors interact. Our results indicate that near-future changes in temperature and pCO2 narrow the range of sperm concentrations that are capable of yielding high fertilization success in A. tenuis. Increased sperm limitation, in conjunction with adult population decline, may have severe consequences for coral reproductive success. Impaired sexual reproduction will further challenge corals by inhibiting population recovery and adaptation potential.

  20. Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Rogers

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead–lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

  1. Overview of ITER project. Objective, history, status of development, structure and its future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, S.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of ITER Project is to demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy for peaceful use. To achieve this goal, the Conceptual Design Activities (CDA 1988-1990) and the Engineering Design Activities (EDA 1992-2001) were conducted by the joint effort of EU, Japan, RF and US under the auspices of IAEA. Engineering design has been developed consistently with plasma physics databases obtained by the world-wide magnetic fusion devices up to and during the EDA. Technology R and D including development, manufacturing and testing of scalable models of major components have been also conducted and ensured manufacturing and technical feasibility of ITER. Such technical readiness to start ITER construction urged formal government negotiation initially by Canada, EU, Japan and RF, and intense meetings have been held since November 2001. The US and China have joined since Feb. 2003. Four candidate sites have been proposed by Canada, EU and Japan for construction and have been evaluated. Once the agreement will be made, the construction takes about 10 years to complete, followed by the operation and exploitation phase lasting about 20 years. This paper gives an overview of ITER Project including its role in the long range fusion program, history, status of development, collaboration structure and its future program. (author)

  2. Projected future climate changes in the context of geological and geomorphological hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liggins, Felicity; Betts, Richard A; McGuire, Bill

    2010-05-28

    On palaeoclimate time scales, enhanced levels of geological and geomorphological activity have been linked to climatic factors, including examples of processes that are expected to be important in current and future anthropogenic climate change. Planetary warming leading to increased rainfall, ice-mass loss and rising sea levels is potentially relevant to geospheric responses in many geologically diverse regions. Anthropogenic climate change, therefore, has the potential to alter the risk of geological and geomorphological hazards through the twenty-first century and beyond. Here, we review climate change projections from both global and regional climate models in the context of geohazards. In assessing the potential for geospheric responses to climate change, it appears prudent to consider regional levels of warming of 2 degrees C above average pre-industrial temperature as being potentially unavoidable as an influence on processes requiring a human adaptation response within this century. At the other end of the scale when considering changes that could be avoided by reduction of emissions, scenarios of unmitigated warming exceeding 4 degrees C in the global average include much greater local warming in some regions. However, considerable further work is required to better understand the uncertainties associated with these projections, uncertainties inherent not only in the climate modelling but also in the linkages between climate change and geospheric responses.

  3. Future energy research in the EU under EIT conditions-pilot projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puehringer-Oppermann, Franziska; Bele, Petra; Bussar, Rainer; Stimming, Ulrich [TUM, Dept. of Physics, E19, James-Franck Str. 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) has been established in April 2008. It is an independent organisation with the administrative head in Budapest, a governing board, an executive committee and a chairman. The EIT budget until 2012 is 308 MEUR. EIT will operate through the formation of Knowledge and Innovation Communities (KICs). The first three KICs are foreseen in the areas sustainable energy, ICT and climate mitigation. The European Commission has sponsored four pilot projects (conducted 2008-2009) to help develop a suitable governance structure for cooperations on European scale such as the future KICs. They are Bridge, ComplexEIT, SUCCESS and Gast, dealing with different topics like nanomedicine (Bridge), integration of hardware and software (ComplexEIT), sustainable energy (SUCCESS) and green and safe road transportation (Gast). The strategic objective of these pilot projects is to design, implement and test new models of cooperation in the knowledge triangle. We are involved in SUCCESS and after benchmarking of 66 collaborations in the field sustainable energy, the state of the art of selected representative topics was asessed and shortcomings in governance evaluated by SWOT analysis. In parallel further existing collaborations were used to extract and establish a management structure for such collaborations on the European scale.

  4. Status and Future Perspectives of the HIE-Isolde Project at CERN

    CERN Document Server

    Kadi, Y; Blumenfeld, Y; Calatroni, S; Catherall, R; Fraser, M A; Goddard, B; Parchet, D; Siesling, E; Venturini Delsolaro, W; Voulot, D; Williams, L R

    2012-01-01

    The High Intensity and Energy (HIE)-ISOLDE project aims at several important upgrades of the present ISOLDE radioactive beam facility at CERN. The main focus lies in the energy upgrade of the post-accelerated radionuclide beams from 3 MeV/u up to 10 MeV/u through the addition of superconducting cavities. This will open the possibility of many new types of experiments including transfer reactions throughout the nuclear chart. The first stage of this upgrade involves the design, construction, installation and commissioning of two high-β cryomodules downstream of REX-ISOLDE, the existing post-accelerator. Each cryomodule houses five high-β superconducting cavities and one superconducting solenoid. Prototypes of the Nb-sputtered Quarter Wave Resonators (QWRs) cavities for the new superconducting linear accelerator have been manufactured and are undergoing RF cold tests. The project also includes a design study of improved production targets to accommodate to the future increase of proton intensity delivered by ...

  5. The climate of the Eastern Seaboard of Australia: A challenging entity now and for future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timbal, Bertrand

    2010-01-01

    The Eastern SeaBoard (ESB) of Australia has long been recognised as a separate climate entity. Using the latest gridded observations from the Bureau of Meteorology, a definition of the spatial extent of the ESB is proposed. It appears that, while this area has recorded below average rainfall over the last 12 years, the ongoing deficiency is not record breaking in historic terms. This contrasts with record breaking droughts across large parts of inland, eastern Australia. The lesser severity of ongoing rainfall deficiencies in the ESB, compared to the rest of the region, is linked to the different impact of observed changes in regional surface pressure and, in particular, changes in the position of the sub-tropical ridge. It is also observed that while tropical modes of variability in the Pacific and Indian oceans are known to influence the climate of eastern Australia, that influence appears very weak and not statistically significant across the ESB. Finally, some issues relevant to future rainfall projections for the ESB are discussed. It is argued that providing reliable climate projections across this climatic region is a difficult challenge.

  6. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  7. submitter Status of the Demonstrator Magnets for the EuCARD-2 Future Magnets Project

    CERN Document Server

    Kirby, G; Badel, A; Bajko, M; Ballarino, A; Bottura, L; Dhalle, M; Durante, M; Fazilleau, P; Fleiter, J; Goldacker, W; Haro, E; Himbele, J; Kario, A; Langeslag, S; Lorin, C; Murtzomaki, J; van Nugteren, J; de Rijk, G; Salmi, T; Senatore, C; Stenvall, A; Tixador, P; Usoskin, A; Volpini, G; Yang, Y; Zangenberg, N

    2016-01-01

    EuCARD-2 is a project partly supported by FP7 European Commission aiming at exploring accelerator magnet technology for 20-T dipole operating field. The EuCARD-2 collaboration is liaising with similar programs for high-field magnets in the U.S. and Japan. EuCARD-2 focuses, through the work package 10 “future magnets,” on the development of a 10-kA-class superconducting high-current-density cable suitable for accelerator magnets, for a 5-T stand-alone dipole of 40-mm bore and about 1-m length. After stand-alone testing, the magnet will be inserted in a large bore background dipole, 10-18 T. This paper reports on the design and development of models, which are called Feather0, wound with REBCO Roebel cable. Based on aligned block design to take advantage of the anisotropy of the REBCO tapes, Feather0 is a precursor of Feather2, which should reach the project goals in 2016. Feather0 is planned to be tested both in stand alone and as an insert mounted in the CERN Fresca facility providing 10-T background fiel...

  8. Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet energy balance driving the surface melt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Franco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, simulations at 25 km resolution are performed over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, using the regional climate model MAR forced by four RCP scenarios from three CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs, in order to investigate the projected changes of the surface energy balance (SEB components driving the surface melt. Analysis of 2000–2100 melt anomalies compared to melt results over 1980–1999 reveals an exponential relationship of the GrIS surface melt rate simulated by MAR to the near-surface air temperature (TAS anomalies, mainly due to the surface albedo positive feedback associated with the extension of bare ice areas in summer. On the GrIS margins, the future melt anomalies are preferentially driven by stronger sensible heat fluxes, induced by enhanced warm air advection over the ice sheet. Over the central dry snow zone, the surface albedo positive feedback induced by the increase in summer melt exceeds the negative feedback of heavier snowfall for TAS anomalies higher than 4 °C. In addition to the incoming longwave flux increase associated with the atmosphere warming, GCM-forced MAR simulations project an increase of the cloud cover decreasing the ratio of the incoming shortwave versus longwave radiation and dampening the albedo feedback. However, it should be noted that this trend in the cloud cover is contrary to that simulated by ERA-Interim–forced MAR for recent climate conditions, where the observed melt increase since the 1990s seems mainly to be a consequence of more anticyclonic atmospheric conditions. Finally, no significant change is projected in the length of the melt season, which highlights the importance of solar radiation absorbed by the ice sheet surface in the melt SEB.

  9. Projections of the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Scott A; Dahlui, Maznah; Mohamed, Rosmawati; Naning, Herlianna; Shabaruddin, Fatiha Hana; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba

    2015-01-01

    The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia has been estimated at 2.5% of the adult population. Our objective, satisfying one of the directives of the WHO Framework for Global Action on Viral Hepatitis, was to forecast the HCV disease burden in Malaysia using modelling methods. An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed. In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039. The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.

  10. Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

    2013-07-01

    Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

  11. Past and future of the Austrian snow cover - results from the CC-Snow project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Marke, Thomas; Hanzer, Florian; Ragg, Hansjörg; Kleindienst, Hannes; Wilcke, Renate; Gobiet, Andreas

    2013-04-01

    This study has the goal to simulate the evolution of the Austrian snow cover from 1971 to 2050 by means of a coupled modelling scheme, and to estimate the effect of climate change on the evolution of the natural snow cover. The model outcomes are interepreted with focus on both the future natural snow conditions, and the effects on winter skiing tourism. Therefore the regional temperature-index snow model SNOWREG is applied, providing snow maps with a spatial resolution of 250 m. The model is trained by means of assimilating local measurements and observed natural snow cover patterns. Meteorological forcing consists of the output of four realizations of the ENSEMBLES project for the A1B emission scenario. The meteorological variables are downscaled and error corrected with a quantile based empirical-statistical method on a daily time basis. The control simulation is 1971-2000, and the scenario simulation 2021-2050. Spatial interpolation is performed on the basis of parameter-elevation relations. We compare the four different global/regional climate model combinations and their effect on the snow modelling, and we explain the patterns of the resulting snow cover by means of regional climatological characteristics. The provinces Tirol and Styria serve as test regions, being typical examples for the two climatic subregions of Austria. To support the interpretation of the simulation results we apply indicators which enable to define meaningful measures for the comparison of the different periods and regions. Results show that the mean duration of the snow cover will decrease by 15 to 30 days per winter season, mostly in elevations between 2000 and 2500 m. Above 3000 m the higher winter precipitation can compensate this effect, and mean snow cover duration may even slightly increase. We also investigate the local scale by application of the physically based mountain snow model AMUNDSEN. This model is capable of producing 50 m resolution output maps for indicators

  12. Future Projections and Consequences of the Changing North American Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Cooley, S. R.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily due to human-caused fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. Nevertheless, today's atmospheric CO2 levels are higher than at any time in the past 800,000 years. Over the past decade, there has been considerable effort to understand how carbon cycle changes interact with, and influence, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and thus climate. Here, we summarize the key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and the consequences of these changes as reported in Chapters 17 and 19 of the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, plant growth, and water-use efficiency. Together, these may lead to changes in vegetation composition, carbon storage, hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. In the ocean, increased uptake of atmospheric CO2 causes ocean acidification, which leads to changes in reproduction, survival, and growth of many marine species. These direct physiological responses to acidification are likely to have indirect ecosystem-scale consequences that we are just beginning to understand. In all environments, the effects of rising CO2 also interact with other global changes. For example, nutrient availability can set limits on growth and a warming climate alters carbon uptake depending on a number of other factors. As a result, there is low confidence in the future evolution of the North American carbon cycle. For example, models project that terrestrial ecosystems could continue to be a net sink (of up to 1.19 PgC yr-1) or switch to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere (of up to 0.60 PgC yr-1) by the end of the century under business-as-usual emission scenarios. And, while North American coastal areas have historically been a sink of carbon (e.g., 2.6 to 3.5 PgC since 1995) and are projected to continue to take up

  13. Historical and commercial triangle of Athens. Patrimonalization through imaginary urban projects, rhetoric and rediscovery of tradition

    OpenAIRE

    Katerina Polychroniadi

    2016-01-01

    Athens has both famous and infamous identities. A city immersed in history surrounded by an"ugly"contemporary urban environment. A city which people love to ‘hate’ exactly due to this dense urban environment and fast pace, but which at the same time is celebrated for its lively everyday (and night) life and creativity. In this paper we focus on the so called "historical and commercial triangle", the city’s downtown in which the historic image of Athens juxtaposes to (coexists with) the most i...

  14. Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

    2016-04-01

    The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample

  15. A model project in community mental health: Consultation to an urban welfare center serving a single-room occupancy hotel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levitt, L I; Brownlee, W H; Lewars, M H

    1968-12-01

    A continuing consultative relationship between a general hospital department of psychiatry and an urban welfare center serving the residents of a privately owned hotel is described-the relationship is based on biweekly seminars. Individual case study is the method of training, and an activity program the vehicle for development of indigenous resident leadership. Problems in residents' relationship to their community, worker-resident relationships, resistances of residents, anticipating both workers and residents' readiness to assume responsibility, and defining the role of consultant were confronted. The project demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique, pointing up the need for refinement of the process and the development of tools for measurement.

  16. Alternative fuelds in urban fleets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindsay, T.

    1994-12-31

    In this presentation the author addresses four main objectives. They are to: discuss programs that are driving the introduction of alternative fuels into fleet operations in urban areas around the country; define alternative fuels; quantify the present use and future projections on alternative fuel vehicles (AVFs) in the Chicago metropolitan statistical area; and discuss benefits of increased use of alternative fuels in urban areas. Factors which touch on these points include: present domestic dependence on petroleum for autos, with usage exceeding production; the large populations in urban areas which do not meet Clean Air Standards; recent legislative initiatives which give guidance and aid in the adoption of such strategies.

  17. Alternative fuelds in urban fleets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindsay, T.

    1994-01-01

    In this presentation the author addresses four main objectives. They are to: discuss programs that are driving the introduction of alternative fuels into fleet operations in urban areas around the country; define alternative fuels; quantify the present use and future projections on alternative fuel vehicles (AVFs) in the Chicago metropolitan statistical area; and discuss benefits of increased use of alternative fuels in urban areas. Factors which touch on these points include: present domestic dependence on petroleum for autos, with usage exceeding production; the large populations in urban areas which do not meet Clean Air Standards; recent legislative initiatives which give guidance and aid in the adoption of such strategies

  18. Urban Environmental Education Project, Curriculum Module VI: Solid Waste - Trash or Treasure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biglan, Barbara

    Included in this module are four activities dealing with issues of solid waste disposal relative to urban concerns. Included activities are: (1) sources and composition of solid waste; (2) a "garbage game"; (3) disposal options for solid waste; and (4) an example county plan for solid waste disposal. Also included are an overview, teacher…

  19. From Mainstream Theatres to Synergy Theatre Project: Black Men's Participation in "Urban" Plays in Prison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, Lynette

    2013-01-01

    This paper compares how urban-themed black British playwriting can be understood within mainstream and applied theatre contexts. The paper first examines the focus of the mainstream theatre's education packs for productions of Kwame Kwei-Armah's "Elmina's Kitchen" and Roy Williams's "Fallout" before exploring how black men's…

  20. Connecting Urban Students with Engineering Design: Community-Focused, Student-Driven Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Carolyn; Kruchten, Catherine; Moshfeghian, Audrey

    2017-01-01

    The STEM Achievement in Baltimore Elementary Schools (SABES) program is a community partnership initiative that includes both in-school and afterschool STEM education for grades 3-5. It was designed to broaden participation and achievement in STEM education by bringing science and engineering to the lives of low-income urban elementary school…

  1. Project SisterCircle: Risk, Intersectionality, and Intervening in Urban Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Wendi; Karlin, Thomas; Wallace, Deidre

    2012-01-01

    Adolescent Black/African descent and Latina girls in urban environments are at heightened risk for the negative consequences of sexual risk. Intervention programming that accounts for the intersection of adolescent girls' racial/ethnic cultural experiences and gender are likely to be most effective in minimizing their vulnerability for sexual…

  2. Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.

    2008-09-01

    Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of Ic and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose Ic value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high Ic value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high Ic value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high Ic values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The Ic × L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already revealed the

  3. Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shiohara, Y. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Shinonome 1-10-13, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0062 (Japan)], E-mail: shiohara@istec.or.jp; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Shinonome 1-10-13, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0062 (Japan); Yamada, Y. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Nagoya Coated Conductor Center, 2-4-1, Mutsuno, Atsuta-ku, Nagoya 456-8587 (Japan)

    2008-09-15

    Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of I{sub c} and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose I{sub c} value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO{sub 2}. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO{sub 2} doping showed a high I{sub c} value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high I{sub c} value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high I{sub c} values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The I{sub c} x L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current

  4. Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.

    2008-01-01

    Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of I c and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose I c value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2 . About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high I c value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high I c value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high I c values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The I c x L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already

  5. Chicago's urban forest ecosystem: Results of the Chicago Urban Forest Climate Project. (Includes executive summary). Forest Service general technical report (Final)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McPherson, E.G.; Nowak, D.J.; Rowntree, R.A.

    1994-06-01

    Results of the 3-year Chicago Urban Forest Climate Project indicate that there are an estimated 50.8 million trees in the Chicago area of Cook and DuPage Counties; 66 percent of these trees rated in good or excellent condition. During 1991, trees in the Chicago area removed an estimated 6,145 tons of air pollutants, providing air cleansing valued at $9.2 million dollars. These trees also sequester approximately 155,000 tons of carbon per year, and provide residential heating and cooling energy savings that, in turn, reduce carbon emissions from power plants by about 12,600 tons annually. Shade, lower summer air temperatures, and a reduction in windspeed associated with increasing tree cover by 10 percent can lower total heating and cooling energy use by 5 to 10 percent annually ($50 to $90 per dwelling unit). The projected net present value of investment in planting and care of 95,000 trees in Chicago is $38 million ($402 per planted tree), indicating that the long-term benefits of trees are more than twice their costs

  6. Use of Ground Motion Simulations of a Historical Earthquake for the Assessment of Past and Future Urban Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kentel, E.; Çelik, A.; karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.

    2017-12-01

    Erzincan city located in the Eastern part of Turkey at the conjunction of three active faults is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. In addition to several historical events, this city has experienced one of the largest earthquakes during the last century: The 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) event. With limited knowledge of the tectonic structure by then, the city center was relocated to the North after the 1939 earthquake by almost 5km, indeed closer to the existing major strike slip fault. This decision coupled with poor construction technologies, led to severe damage during a later event that occurred on 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6). The 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms whereas the 1992 event was only recorded by 3 nearby stations. There are empirical isoseismal maps from both events indicating indirectly the spatial distribution of the damage. In this study, we focus on this region and present a multidisciplinary approach to discuss the different components of uncertainties involved in the assessment and mitigation of seismic risk in urban areas. For this initial attempt, ground motion simulation of the 1939 event is performed to obtain the anticipated ground motions and shaking intensities. Using these quantified results along with the spatial distribution of the observed damage, the relocation decision is assessed and suggestions are provided for future large earthquakes to minimize potential earthquake risks.

  7. Climatescan.nl: the development of a web-based map application to encourage knowledge-sharing of climate-proofing and urban resilient projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tipping, Jonathan; Boogaard, Floris; Jaeger, R.; Duffy, A.; Klomp, T.; Manenschijn, M.

    2015-01-01

    Over recent years, there has been an explosion in the number and diversity of projects undertaken to address urban resilience and climate proofing. Sharing the knowledge gained from these projects demands increasingly innovative and accessible methods. This paper details the outcomes of one such

  8. Urban networks of tomorrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bothe, D; Kaufmann, T.

    2016-01-01

    The requirements for urban utility grids are subject to a considerable change. The diversification of the energy supply and the changing feed-in structure (central -> decentral) also influence the operation of the existing networks considerably. Therefore, the focus of future studies will be on the flexibility of energy supply and the energy-carrier-wide network analysis or planning. These aspects are addressed, among other things, within the URBEM project, with a focus on a holistic, interdisciplinary approach. On the basis of separately performed thermal and electrical network calculations an optimization task is defined (for example, minimization of operating resources, minimization of CO2 emissions) and solved under technical conditions. The scenarios for the period 2030 and 2050 developed in the URBEM project serve as the basis for the optimization. The results of the calculations show current utilization or bottlenecks in the supply networks as well as optimum future supply structures for development areas in urban areas. (rössner) [de

  9. PHOTOCITYTEX - A LIFE project on the air pollution treatment in European urban environments by means of photocatalytic textiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ródenas, Milagros; Fages, Eduardo; Fatarella, Enrico; Herrero, David; Castagnoli, Lidia; Borrás, Esther; Vera, Teresa; Gómez, Tatiana; Carreño, Javier; López, Ramón; Gimeno, Cristina; Catota, Marlon; Muñoz, Amalia

    2016-04-01

    In urban areas, air pollution from traffic is becoming a growing problem. In recent years the use of titanium dioxide (TiO2) based photocatalytic self-cleaning and de-polluting materials has been considered to remove these pollutants. TiO2 is now commercially available and used in construction material or paints for environmental purposes. Further work, however, is still required to clarify the potential impacts from wider TiO2 use. Specific test conditions are required to provide objective and accurate knowledge. Under the LIFE PHOTOCITYTEX project, the effectiveness of using TiO2-based photocatalytic nanomaterials in building textiles as a way of improving the air quality in urban areas will be assessed. Moreover, information on secondary products formed during the tests will be obtained, yielding a better overall understanding of the whole process and its implications. For this purpose, a series of demonstrations are foreseen, comprising 1. lab-test and development of textile prototypes at lab scale, 2. larger scale demonstration of the use of photocatalytic textiles in the depollution of urban environments employing the EUPHORE chambers to simulate a number of environmental conditions of various European cities and 3. field demonstrations installing the photocatalytic textiles in two urban locations in Quart de Poblet, a tunnel and a school. A one-year extensive passive dosimetric campaign has already being carried out to characterize the selected urban sites before the installation of the photocatalytic textile prototypes, and a similar campaign after their installation is ongoing. Also, more comprehensive intensive active measurement campaigns have been conducted to account for winter and summer conditions. In parallel, lab-tests have already been completed to determine optimal photocatalytic formulations on textiles, followed by experiments at EUPHORE. Information on the deployment of the campaigns is given together with laboratory conclusions and first

  10. Future climate and wildfire: ecosystem projections of area burned in the western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littell, J. S.; Duffy, P.; Battisti, D. S.; McKenzie, D.; Peterson, D. L.

    2010-12-01

    The area burned by fire in ecosystems of the western United States has been closely linked to climate in the paleoecological record and in the modern record. Statistical models of area burned show that the climatic controls on area burned vary with vegetation type (Littell et al. 2009). In more arid or systems (grasslands, shrublands, woodlands), antecedent climatic controls on fire were associated first with the production of fuels and secondarily with drought in the year of fire. These relationships typically manifested as wetter and sometimes cooler conditions in the seasons prior to the fire season. Area burned in forest ecosystems and some woodlands was primarily associated with drought conditions, specifically increased temperature and decreased precipitation in the year of fire and the seasons leading up to the fire season. These climatic controls indicate the role of climate in drying existing fuels. Statistical fire models trained on the late 20th century for ecoprovinces in the West would be useful for projecting area burned, at least until vegetation type conversion driven by climate and disturbance occurs. To that end, we used ~ 2.5 degree gridded future climate fields derived for a multi-GCM ensemble of 1C and 2C temperature increase forcing to develop future ecoprovince monthly and seasonal average temperature and associated precipitation and used these as predictors in statistical fire models of future projected area burned. We also conducted modeling scenarios with the ensemble temperature increase paired with historical precipitation. Most ecoprovinces had increases in area burned, with a range of ~ 67% to over 600% . Ecoprovinces that are primarily sensitive to precipitation changes exhibit smaller increases than those most sensitive to temperature (forest systems). We also developed exceedance probabilities. Some ecoprovinces show large increases in area burned but low exceedance probabilities, suggest that the area burned is concentrated more

  11. Using remote sensing and GIS in addressing the future decisions regarding underused urban spaces; Hajj sites in Mecca as case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imam, Ayman; Roca, Josep

    2017-10-01

    The term Underused Urban Spaces (UUS) refers to spaces within urban areas that have become unused, or that are being used to a lesser degree than they could or should be such as former industrial zones, abandoned facilities or buildings and Expo or Olympic Games cities. The Islamic pilgrimage sites known as Hajj sites (HS) are considered form of the UUS concept as they are used lesser degree than they should be. However, the emergence of such spaces has therefore encouraged researchers, urban planner, social and local authorities to discuses about the appropriate decision regarding their future towards conversion or alternatively using those spaces in order to achieve positive social, economic and environmental benefits, according to Pagano and Bowman (2000), UUS can be a powerful tool for governments and investors to use during the urban growth (UG) of their cities. Since, remote sensing and GIS technologies are used recently to study and analyze the UG of cities; the main objective of this paper is to demonstrate the efficiency of those technologies in addressing the future decisions regarding the underused status of Hajj sites in relation to UG of the city of Mecca. Tow classified land cover maps of Mecca for two years (1998 and 2013), in addition to entropy index and multiple regression analyses were utilized in order to quantify the relationship between HS and Mecca UG. The results showed that the urban growth of Mecca has increased by approximately 56%, and almost 32% of that increased were around HS in on hand, and on the other hand the entropy and the regression analysis showed that there is 51% probability that the future growth to be also around HS. These findings will better addressing the future decisions regarding the underused status of HS, simultaneously revel that the use of RS and GIS was highly effective to be adopted within similar cases of UUS.

  12. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  13. Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid

  14. Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslava Garza

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.We forecast the future (2050 distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3 and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2 were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.

  15. The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigersky, Robert A; Fish, Lisa; Hogan, Paul; Stewart, Andrew; Kutler, Stephanie; Ladenson, Paul W; McDermott, Michael; Hupart, Kenneth H

    2014-09-01

    Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003. The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025. A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists. The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction. The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand. Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force. There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive

  16. Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

    OpenAIRE

    Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good go...

  17. The Results of Development of the Project ZOOINT and its Future Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnov, I. S.; Lobanov, A. L.; Alimov, A. F.; Medvedev, S. G.; Golikov, A. A.

    future of most advanced technologies of development of the DB (for example, usage of the XML platform) and, eventually, building of the modern information systems. The work on the project is carried out at support of the RFBR grant N 02-07-90217; programs "The Information system on a biodiversity of Russia" and Project N 15 "Antarctic Regions".

  18. PROJECT CASCADES OF SMALL DRY RESERVOIRS FOR FLOOD PROTECTION OF URBAN AREAS

    OpenAIRE

    Rafał Antoszewski; Katarzyna Jakubiec; Kinga Witek; Michał Domagała

    2017-01-01