WorldWideScience

Sample records for projected climate impacts

  1. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated...... in impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  2. Projected climate change impacts in rainfall erosivity over Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change projections and historical analyses have shown alterations in global precipitation dynamics, and therefore, it is also expected that there will be associated changes to soil erosion rates. The impacts of climate change on soil erosion may bring serious economic, social, and environmen...

  3. Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O3) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics.

  4. Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollowed, Anne B.; Barange, Manuel; Beamish, Richard J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews current literature on the projected effects of climate change on marine fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities throughout the northern hemisphere. The review addresses the following issues: (i) expected impacts on ecosystem productivity and habitat......) implications for food security and associated changes; and (v) uncertainty and modelling skill assessment. Climate change will impact fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities through a complex suite of linked processes. Integrated interdisciplinary research teams are forming...... in many regions to project these complex responses. National and international marine research organizations serve a key role in the coordination and integration of research to accelerate the production of projections of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and to move towards a future where...

  5. Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia, Raquel A.

    Evidence for shifts in the phenologies and distributions of species over recent decades has often been attributed to climate change. The prospect of greater and faster changes in climate during the 21st century has spurred a stream of studies anticipating future biodiversity impacts. Yet, uncerta......Evidence for shifts in the phenologies and distributions of species over recent decades has often been attributed to climate change. The prospect of greater and faster changes in climate during the 21st century has spurred a stream of studies anticipating future biodiversity impacts. Yet......, uncertainty is inherent to both projected climate changes and their effects on biodiversity, and needs to be understood before projections can be used. This thesis seeks to elucidate some of the uncertainties clouding assessments of biodiversity impacts from climate change, and explores ways to address them...... models, are shown to be affected by multiple uncertainties. Different model algorithms produce different outputs, as do alternative future climate models and scenarios of future emissions of greenhouse gases. Another uncertainty arises due to omission of species with small sample sizes, which...

  6. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture. Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of rice, wheat, legumes and oilseeds by 10-20%. A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of wheat, soybean, mustard, groundnut, and potato by 3-7%.

  7. Selecting downscaled climate projections for water resource impacts and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Hingray, Benoît

    2015-04-01

    Increasingly large ensembles of global and regional climate projections are being produced and delivered to the climate impact community. However, such an enormous amount of information can hardly been dealt with by some impact models due to computational constraints. Strategies for transparently selecting climate projections are therefore urgently needed for informing small-scale impact and adaptation studies and preventing potential pitfalls in interpreting ensemble results from impact models. This work proposes results from a selection approach implemented for an integrated water resource impact and adaptation study in the Durance river basin (Southern French Alps). A large ensemble of 3000 daily transient gridded climate projections was made available for this study. It was built from different runs of 4 ENSEMBLES Stream2 GCMs, statistically downscaled by 3 probabilistic methods based on the K-nearest neighbours resampling approach (Lafaysse et al., 2014). The selection approach considered here exemplifies one of the multiple possible approaches described in a framework for identifying tailored subsets of climate projections for impact and adaptation studies proposed by Vidal & Hingray (2014). It was chosen based on the specificities of both the study objectives and the characteristics of the projection dataset. This selection approach aims at propagating as far as possible the relative contributions of the four different sources of uncertainties considered, namely GCM structure, large-scale natural variability, structure of the downscaling method, and catchment-scale natural variability. Moreover, it took the form of a hierarchical structure to deal with the specific constraints of several types of impact models (hydrological models, irrigation demand models and reservoir management models). The implemented 3-layer selection approach is therefore mainly based on conditioned Latin Hypercube sampling (Christierson et al., 2012). The choice of conditioning

  8. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-07-01

    Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley

  9. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Se-Yeun; Ryan, Maureen E; Hamlet, Alan F; Palen, Wendy J; Lawler, Joshua J; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  10. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, Alan F.; Palen, Wendy J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  11. Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Payne, Mark; Barange, Manuel; Cheung, William W. L.

    2016-01-01

    with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability......Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated...... and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization...

  12. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  13. Regional projection of climate impact indices over the Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casanueva, Ana; Frías, M.; Dolores; Herrera, Sixto; Bedia, Joaquín; San Martín, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Zaninovic, Ksenija

    2014-05-01

    Climate Impact Indices (CIIs) are being increasingly used in different socioeconomic sectors to transfer information about climate change impacts and risks to stakeholders. CIIs are typically based on different weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation or humidity and comprise, in a single index, the relevant meteorological information for the particular impact sector (in this study wildfires and tourism). This dependence on several climate variables poses important limitations to the application of statistical downscaling techniques, since physical consistency among variables is required in most cases to obtain reliable local projections. The present study assesses the suitability of the "direct" downscaling approach, in which the downscaling method is directly applied to the CII. In particular, for illustrative purposes, we consider two popular indices used in the wildfire and tourism sectors, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), respectively. As an example, two case studies are analysed over two representative Mediterranean regions of interest for the EU CLIM-RUN project: continental Spain for the FWI and Croatia for the PET. Results obtained with this "direct" downscaling approach are similar to those found from the application of the statistical downscaling to the individual meteorological drivers prior to the index calculation ("component" downscaling) thus, a wider range of statistical downscaling methods could be used. As an illustration, future changes in both indices are projected by applying two direct statistical downscaling methods, analogs and linear regression, to the ECHAM5 model. Larger differences were found between the two direct statistical downscaling approaches than between the direct and the component approaches with a single downscaling method. While these examples focus on particular indices and Mediterranean regions of interest for CLIM-RUN stakeholders, the same study

  14. Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

    2017-10-01

    Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

  15. Impacts of the Three Gorges Project on Local Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Z.; Liang, S.; Feng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Three Gorges Project (TGP) is the largest hydroelectric project in the world and has led to significant land cover changes in Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA). Since its construction the debates on its environmental and climatic impacts have never stopped, especially after the extreme drought and flood in Yangtze River Basin these years. TGP reached its final impounding water level in 2010. However, studies on systematically monitoring the long-term variations in surface and atmospheric parameters in TGRA are still lacking. In this study, three important surface parameters - surface albedo, land surface temperature (LST) and evapotranspiration (ET) and two climatic parameters - air temperature and precipitation were investigated from 2000 to 2013 by combining multiple remote sensing data and ground measurements. Results showed that along the reservoir albedo decreased significantly as a result of water impounding. Correspondingly, in the same region daytime LST decreased in spring and summer and nighttime LST increased in autumn and winter. In the western region of TGRA, albedo increased due to resettlement and LST also changed. The average ET increased by 20% in TGR but kept stable in the whole TGRA. In contrast to LST, air temperature showed less apparent spatial and temporal variability. Only in the region near the dam air temperature experienced a decrease at daytime and an increase at nighttime. Further analysis demonstrated precipitation revealed no apparent changes in TGRA and the precipitation anomaly in northwest of TGRA may not be connected with TGP. All of the findings provide a more substantial clues of local climate change caused by TGP.

  16. Impact of projected climate change on agricultural production in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The climate change projections data from global climate models were downscaled using self-organising maps technique. Under the conventional practices, results show that during long rainy season (from March to May) there is yield decline of 13% for cultivar Situka, no change for cultivar Kito and increase of 10% and ...

  17. Description of the default climate scenario for impact projects in NRP-II

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verweij W; Viner D; NOP

    2001-01-01

    The Dutch National Research Programme on Climate Change (NRP) is funding strategic research on climate change. One of the central research themes focuses on potential impacts of climate change. In general, results of impact projects may differ markedly, depending on input of scenario data for

  18. Future Projection of Ocean Wave Climate: Analysis of SST Impacts on Wave Climate Changes in the Western North Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Shimura, Tomoya; Mori, Nobuhito; Mase, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    Changes in ocean surface waves elicit a variety of impacts on coastal environments. To assess the future changes in the ocean surface wave climate, several future projections of global wave climate have been simulated in previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in the future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of...

  19. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observeddata. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results variedby region . Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1 .6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.628.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. In this study we evaluate changes in ozone related mortality due to changes in biogenic f

  20. Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Voisin, Nathalie; Cui, Huijuan

    2016-01-01

    Hydropower is an important renewable energy source in China, but it is sensitive to climate change, because the changing climate may alter hydrological conditions (e.g., river flow and reservoir storage). Future changes and associated uncertainties in China's gross hydropower potential (GHP) and developed hydropower potential (DHP) are projected using simulations from eight global hydrological models (GHMs), including a large-scale reservoir regulation model, forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) with climate data under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results show that the estimation of the present GHP of China is comparable to other studies; overall, the annual GHP is projected to change by −1.7 to 2 % in the near future (2020–2050) and increase by 3 to 6 % in the late 21st century (2070–2099). The annual DHP is projected to change by −2.2 to −5.4 % (0.7–1.7 % of the total installed hydropower capacity (IHC)) and −1.3 to −4 % (0.4–1.3 % of total IHC) for 2020–2050 and 2070–2099, respectively. Regional variations emerge: GHP will increase in northern China but decrease in southern China – mostly in south central China and eastern China – where numerous reservoirs and large IHCs currently are located. The area with the highest GHP in southwest China will have more GHP, while DHP will reduce in the regions with high IHC (e.g., Sichuan and Hubei) in the future. The largest decrease in DHP (in %) will occur in autumn or winter, when streamflow is relatively low and water use is competitive. Large ranges in hydropower estimates across GHMs and GCMs highlight the necessity of using multimodel assessments under climate change conditions. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in planning for hydropower development and operations in China, to be further combined with a socioeconomic analysis for strategic expansion.

  1. Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico

    2017-04-01

    Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat

  2. Climatic projections and socio economic impacts of the climatic change in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslava R, Jesus Antonio; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

    2001-01-01

    For the task of working out climate change projections, different methodologies have been in use, from simple extrapolations to sophisticated statistical and mathematical tools. Today, the tools most used are the models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, which include many processes of other climate components (biosphere, cryosphere, continental surface models, etc.). Different global and regional scenarios have been generated with those models. They may be of great utility in calculating projections and future scenarios for Colombia, but the representation of the country's climate in those models has to be improved in order to get projections with a higher level of certainty. The application of climate models and of the techniques of down scaling in studies of climate change is new both in Colombia and tropical America, and was introduced through the National University of Colombia's project on local and national climate change. In the first phase of the project, version 3 of the CCM (Climate Community Model) of NCAR was implemented. Parallel to that, and based on national (grid) data, maps have been prepared of the monthly temperature and precipitation of Colombia, which were used to validate the model

  3. Climate Analogues for agricultural impact projection and adaptation – a reliability test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swen P.M. Bos

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The climate analogue approach is often considered a valuable tool for climate change impact projection and adaptation planning, especially for complex systems that cannot be modelled reliably. Important examples are smallholder farming systems using agroforestry or other mixed-cropping approaches. For the projected climate at a particular site of interest, the analogue approach identifies locations where the current climate is similar to these projected conditions. By comparing baseline-analogue site pairs, information on climate impacts and opportunities for adaptation can be obtained. However, the climate analogue approach is only meaningful, if climate is a dominant driver of differences between baseline and analogue site pairs. For a smallholder farming setting on Mt. Elgon in Kenya, we tested this requirement by comparing yield potentials of maize and coffee (obtained from the IIASA Global Agro-ecological Zones dataset among 50 close analogue sites for different future climate scenarios and models, and by comparing local ecological knowledge and farm characteristics for one baseline-analogue pair.Yield potentials among the 50 closest analogue locations varied strongly within all climate scenarios, hinting at factors other than climate as major drivers of what the analogue approach might interpret as climate effects. However, on average future climatic conditions seemed more favourable to maize and coffee cultivation than current conditions. The detailed site comparison revealed substantial differences between farms in important characteristics, such as farm size and presence of cash crops, casting doubt on the usefulness of the comparison for climate change analysis. Climatic constraints were similar between sites, so that no apparent lessons for adaptation could be derived. Pests and diseases were also similar, indicating that climate change may not lead to strong changes in biotic constraints at the baseline site in the near future. From

  4. Investigating the impacts of climate change on Chinese agriculture. China-UK collaboration project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erda, Lin (ed.)

    2004-04-15

    The impact of climate change in China is expected to be considerable. A regional climate change model (PRECIS), developed by the UK's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, was used to simulate China's climate and to develop climate change scenarios for the country. Results from this project suggest that, depending on the level of future emissions, the average temperature increase in China by the end of the 21st century may be between 3 and 4C.

  5. Air Pollution and Climate Change Health Impact Assessment. The ACHIA Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinney, P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may affect human health via interactions with air pollutants such as ozone and PM 2.5 . These air pollutants are linked to climate because they can be both affected by and have effects on climate. In coming decades, substantial, cost-effective improvements in public health may be achieved with well-planned strategies to mitigate climate impacts while also reducing health effects of ozone and PM 2.5 . Climate mitigation actions affect greenhouse pollutant emissions, including methane and black carbon, but also may affect other key air pollution precursors such as NOx, CO, and SOx. To better understand the potential of such strategies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. The overall objective of this project is to apply state of the art climate, air quality, and health modelling tools to assess future health impacts of ozone and PM 2.5 under different IPCCs scenario of climate change, focusing specifically on pollution-related health co-benefits which could be achieved under alternative climate mitigation pathways in the period 2030-2050. This question will be explored at three spatial scales: global, regional (Europe), and urban (Paris). ACHIA is comprised of an integrated set of four work packages: WP1. Global Climate and Air Pollution Impacts of Alternative Emissions Pathways; WP2. Climate and Air Quality at Regional and Urban Scales: Results for Europe and Paris; WP3. Health Impact Assessment; WP4. Dissemination, Evaluation, Management. ACHIA is designed to create an interdisciplinary approach to the impacts of climate change on health through air quality changes, and to start longer-term collaborations between communities. We expect the project to advance state of art across all WPs, with important implications for research groups around the world. A particular innovation of the project is the multi-scale aspect, i.e., the

  6. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J. C.; Madsen, H.; Andréassian, V.

    2014-01-01

    Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents...... a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation...... to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data...

  7. Projected impact of climate change on waves at Mumbai High

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Pentapatim, S.; Deo, M.C.; Kerkar, J.; Vethamony, P.

    .5), a numerical wave model of the past and future wave conditions was simulated over a 40-year period. A statistical analysis of both past and projected datasets obtained significant wave heights with a 100-year return. The comparison of wave heights...

  8. Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposures to ozone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dionisio, Kathie L; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Graham, Stephen; Caraway, Nina; Foley, Kristen M; Isaacs, Kristin K

    2017-05-01

    The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O 3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O 3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O 3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O 3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics. These results indicate the potential for future changes in O 3 exposure as a result of changes in climate that could impact human health.

  9. Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, A.

    2011-12-01

    The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed

  10. Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) drives the economy of many African countries and it is mainly rain-fed agriculture used for subsistence. Increasing temperatures, changed precipitation patterns and more frequent droughts may lead to a substantial decrease of crop yields. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture are expected to be significant and extensive in the SSA due to the shortening of the growing seasons and the increasing of water-stress risk. Differences in Agro-Ecological Zones and geographical characteristics of SSA influence the diverse impacts of climate change, which can greatly differ across the continent and within countries. The vulnerability of African Countries to climate change is aggravated by the low adaptive capacity of the continent, due to the increasing of its population, the widespread poverty, and other social factors. In this contest, the assessment of climate change impact on agricultural sector has a particular interest to stakeholder and policy makers, in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that could be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and to develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these threats. For these reasons, the evaluation of climate change impacts for key crops in SSA was made exploring climate uncertainty and focusing on short period monitoring, which is particularly useful for food security and risk management analysis. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT-CSM are tools that allow to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were used, after a parameterization phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop phenology and production

  11. Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hole, David G; Willis, Stephen G; Pain, Deborah J

    2009-01-01

    Despite widespread concern, the continuing effectiveness of networks of protected areas under projected 21st century climate change is uncertain. Shifts in species' distributions could mean these resources will cease to afford protection to those species for which they were originally established...... species). Persistence of suitable climate space across the network as a whole, however, is notably high, with 88-92% of priority species retaining suitable climate space in >or= 1 IBA(s) in which they are currently found. Only 7-8 priority species lose climatic representation from the network. Hence......, despite the likelihood of significant community disruption, we demonstrate that rigorously defined networks of protected areas can play a key role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change on biodiversity....

  12. The Climate Impacts Research Consortium: Lessons Learned from the Evaluation of Co-production projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolovska, I.; Andrepont, J. A.; Lach, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC) is a climate-science-to-climate-action team funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), member of NOAA's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program. The internal evaluation of the last 6 years of CIRC's work focused on the co-production of knowledge process. The evaluation was based on CIRC's Reflection and Logic model and used a mixed methods design. During regular monthly meetings in 2014/15, all CIRC PIs reflected on the co-production process and presented their evaluation of the projects they worked on. Additionally, we conducted semi-structured interviews with CIRC participants, purposefully targeting key informants. The Climate Impacts Research Consortium teams also administered surveys to assess participants' experiences of the coproduction process as they were engaging in it. Identifying and cultivating an informant from the local stakeholder group with deep, accessible roots within the target community can lead to better coproduction results than having to build those relationships from naught. Across projects, most participants agreed that the project increased their understanding of their area's hazards and by the end of the project most participants were confident the project would produce useful results for themselves. Finally, most participants intended to share what they had learned from this experience with their colleagues and we found that co-production built capacities necessary for communities to incorporate climate change in discussions even after the end of CIRC's participation. During the projects, the involvement of non-traditional participants along with experts was critical to success and a lot of work and preparation needs to be put into the planning of any co-production meeting to overcome various barriers to communication and build trust.

  13. Climate change projections of heat stress in Europe: From meteorological variables to impacts on productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casanueva, Ana; Kotlarski, Sven; Liniger, Mark A.

    2017-04-01

    Future climate change is likely to have important impacts in many socio-economic sectors. In particular, higher summer temperatures or more prolonged heat waves may be responsible for health problems and productivity losses related to heat stress, especially affecting people exposed to such situations (e.g. working under outside settings or in non-acclimatized workplaces). Heat stress on the body under work load and consequently their productivity loss can be described through heat stress indices that are based on multiple meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind and radiation. Exploring the changes of these variables under a warmer climate is of prime importance for the Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability communities. In particular, the H2020 project HEAT-SHIELD aims at analyzing the impact of climate change on heat stress in strategic industries in Europe (manufacturing, construction, transportation, tourism and agriculture) within an inter-sectoral framework (climate scientists, biometeorologists, physiologists and stakeholders). In the present work we explore present and future heat stress over Europe using an ensemble of the state-of-the-art RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Since RCMs cannot be directly used in impact studies due to their partly substantial biases, a standard bias correction method (empirical quantile mapping) is applied to correct the individual variables that are then used to derive heat stress indices. The objectives of this study are twofold, 1) to test the ability of the separately bias corrected variables to reproduce the main characteristics of heat stress indices in present climate conditions and 2) to explore climate change projections of heat stress indices. We use the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as primary heat stress index, considering two different versions for indoor (or in the shade, based on temperature and humidity conditions) and outdoor settings (including also wind and radiation). The WBGT

  14. Landscape ecological impact of climatic change some preliminary findings of the LICC Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, M.M.

    1991-01-01

    The main objectives of the LICC project are to address the potential effects of a future climatic change on (semi-) natural terrestrial ecosystems and landscapes in Europe; six case studies are covered: alpine regions, boreal and subartic regions, Mediterranean region, fluvial systems, wetlands and coastal dunes. Preliminary findings showed a serious lack in fundamental ecological knowledge. Assessment of potential effects involved changes in water and sediment fluxes, changes in the vegetation cover, species response, dispersal and migration in a fragmented landscape and modification of climate impacts by man

  15. Projecting the impact of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juknys, Romualdas; Velička, Rimantas; Kanapickas, Arvydas; Kriaučiūnienė, Zita; Masilionytė, Laura; Vagusevičienė, Ilona; Pupalienė, Rita; Klepeckas, Martynas; Sujetovienė, Gintarė

    2017-10-01

    Climate warming and a shift in the timing of phenological phases, which lead to changes in the duration of the vegetation period may have an essential impact on the productivity of winter crops. The main purpose of this study is to examine climate change-related long-term (1961-2015) changes in the duration of both initial (pre-winter) and main (post-winter) winter wheat vegetation seasons and to present the projection of future phenological changes until the end of this century. Delay and shortening of pre-winter vegetation period, as well as the advancement and slight extension of the post-winter vegetation period, resulted in the reduction of whole winter wheat vegetation period by more than 1 week over the investigated 55 years. Projected changes in the timing of phenological phases which define limits of a main vegetation period differ essentially from the observed period. According to pessimistic (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) scenario, the advancement of winter wheat maturity phase by almost 30 days and the shortening of post-winter vegetation season by 15 days are foreseen for a far (2071-2100) projection. An increase in the available chilling amount is specific not only to the investigated historical period (1960-2015) but also to the projected period according to the climate change scenarios of climate warming for all three projection periods. Consequently, the projected climate warming does not pose a threat of plant vernalization shortage in the investigated geographical latitudes.

  16. Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryal, Anil; Shrestha, Sangam; Babel, Mukand S.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069) and far-future (2070-2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by - 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and - 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and

  17. Understanding and Projecting Climate and Human Impacts on Terrestrial-Coastal Carbon and Nutrient Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; Tian, H.; He, R.; Fennel, K.

    2017-12-01

    Changing climate and land use practices have the potential to dramatically alter coupled hydrologic-biogeochemical processes and associated movement of water, carbon and nutrients through various terrestrial reservoirs into rivers, estuaries, and coastal ocean waters. Consequences of climate- and land use-related changes will be particularly evident in large river basins and their associated coastal outflow regions. Here, we describe a NASA Carbon Monitoring System project that employs an integrated suite of models in conjunction with remotely sensed as well as targeted in situ observations with the objectives of describing processes controlling fluxes on land and their coupling to riverine, estuarine and ocean ecosystems. The nature of our approach, coupling models of terrestrial and ocean ecosystem dynamics and associated carbon processes, allows for assessment of how societal and human-related land use, land use change and forestry and climate-related change affect terrestrial carbon transport as well as export of materials through watersheds to the coastal margins. Our objectives include the following: 1) Provide representation of carbon processes in the terrestrial ecosystem to understand how changes in land use and climatic conditions influence the export of materials to the coastal ocean, 2) Couple the terrestrial exports of carbon, nutrients and freshwater to a coastal biogeochemical model and examine how different climate and land use scenarios influence fluxes across the land-ocean interface, and 3) Project future changes under different scenarios of climate and human impact, and support user needs related to carbon management and other activities (e.g., water quality, hypoxia, ocean acidification). This research is providing information that will contribute to determining an overall carbon balance in North America as well as describing and predicting how human- and climate-related changes impact coastal water quality including possible effects of coastal

  18. Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

    2014-11-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

  19. Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisner, Courtney P.; Wood, Joshua C.; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S.; Robin Buell, C.; Winkler, Julie A.

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

  20. Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation management in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Loh, Rhonda; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brinck, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan; McDaniel, Sierra; Fortini, Lucas B.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change will likely alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in Hawai`i. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park where intensely managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs), focal sites for managing rare and endangered plants, may no longer provide suitable habitat under future climate. Expanding invasive species’ distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. We combine recent climate modeling efforts for the state of Hawai`i with plant species distribution models to forecast changes in biodiversity in SEAs under future climate conditions. Based on this bioclimatic envelope model, we generated projected species range maps for four snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, and 2090) to assess whether the range of 39 native and invasive species of management interest are expected to contract, expand, or remain the same under a moderately warmer and more variable precipitation scenario. Approximately two-thirds of the modeled native species were projected to contract in range, while one-third were shown to increase. Most of the park’s SEAs were projected to lose a majority of the native species modeled. Nine of the 10 modeled invasive species were projected to contract within the park; this trend occurred in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. There was good congruence in the current (2000) distribution of species richness and SEA configuration; however, the congruence between species richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the end of this century. Over time the projected species-rich hotspots increasingly occurred outside of current SEA boundaries. Our research brought together managers and scientists to increase understanding of potential climate change impacts, and provide needed information to address how plants may respond under future conditions relative to current managed areas.

  1. Sound transit climate risk reduction project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus : services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term plannin...

  2. Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Transport In a Lowland Watershed System: Controlling Processes and Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    al Aamery, N. M. H.; Mahoney, D. T.; Fox, J.

    2017-12-01

    Future climate change projections suggest extreme impacts on watershed hydrologic systems for some regions of the world including pronounced increases in surface runoff and instream flows. Yet, there remains a lack of research focused on how future changes in hydrologic extremes, as well as relative hydrologic mean changes, impact sediment redistribution within a watershed and sediment flux from a watershed. The authors hypothesized that variations in mean and extreme changes in turn may impact sediments in depositional and erosional dominance in a manner that may not be obvious to the watershed manager. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to investigate the inner processes connecting the combined effect of extreme climate change projections on the vegetation, upland erosion, and instream processes to produce changes in sediment redistribution within watersheds. To do so, research methods were carried out by the authors including simulating sediment processes in forecast and hindcast periods for a lowland watershed system. Publically available climate realizations from several climate factors and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were used to predict hydrologic conditions for the South Elkhorn Watershed in central Kentucky, USA to 2050. The results of the simulated extreme and mean hydrological components were used in simulating upland erosion with the connectivity processes consideration and thereafter used in building and simulating the instream erosion and deposition of sediment processes with the consideration of surface fine grain lamina (SFGL) layer controlling the benthic ecosystem. Results are used to suggest the dominance of erosional and depositional redistribution of sediments under different scenarios associated with extreme and mean hydrologic forecasting. The results are discussed in reference to the benthic ecology of the stream system providing insight on how water managers might consider sediment redistribution in a changing climate.

  3. Decomposing the uncertainty in climate impact projections of Dynamic Vegetation Models: a test with the forest models LANDCLIM and FORCLIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cailleret, Maxime; Snell, Rebecca; von Waldow, Harald; Kotlarski, Sven; Bugmann, Harald

    2015-04-01

    Different levels of uncertainty should be considered in climate impact projections by Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs), particularly when it comes to managing climate risks. Such information is useful to detect the key processes and uncertainties in the climate model - impact model chain and may be used to support recommendations for future improvements in the simulation of both climate and biological systems. In addition, determining which uncertainty source is dominant is an important aspect to recognize the limitations of climate impact projections by a multi-model ensemble mean approach. However, to date, few studies have clarified how each uncertainty source (baseline climate data, greenhouse gas emission scenario, climate model, and DVM) affects the projection of ecosystem properties. Focusing on one greenhouse gas emission scenario, we assessed the uncertainty in the projections of a forest landscape model (LANDCLIM) and a stand-scale forest gap model (FORCLIM) that is caused by linking climate data with an impact model. LANDCLIM was used to assess the uncertainty in future landscape properties of the Visp valley in Switzerland that is due to (i) the use of different 'baseline' climate data (gridded data vs. data from weather stations), and (ii) differences in climate projections among 10 GCM-RCM chains. This latter point was also considered for the projections of future forest properties by FORCLIM at several sites along an environmental gradient in Switzerland (14 GCM-RCM chains), for which we also quantified the uncertainty caused by (iii) the model chain specific statistical properties of the climate time-series, and (iv) the stochasticity of the demographic processes included in the model, e.g., the annual number of saplings that establish, or tree mortality. Using methods of variance decomposition analysis, we found that (i) The use of different baseline climate data strongly impacts the prediction of forest properties at the lowest and highest, but

  4. Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randin, C.; Engler, R.; Pearman, P.; Vittoz, P.; Guisan, A.

    2007-12-01

    Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In this study, we developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, we assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. We also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, we used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, we showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe B1 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the

  5. The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get

  6. Climate projections FAQ

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.E. Daniels; J.F. Morrison; L.A. Joyce; N.L. Crookston; S.C. Chen; S.G. McNulty

    2012-01-01

    Climate scenarios offer one way to identify and examine the land management challenges posed by climate change. Selecting projections, however, requires careful consideration of the natural resources under study, and where and how they are sensitive to climate. Selection also depends on the robustness of different projections for the resources and geographic area of...

  7. The Northern Climate Exchange Gap Analysis Project : an assessment of the current state of knowledge about the impacts of climate change in northern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The Northern Climate ExChange (NCE) Gap Analysis Project was launched in 1999 with an objective to assess the state of knowledge on climate change in northern Canada. Resulting products of the project have included the Infosource Database, an on-line database of published climate change research related to the Canadian North, the Directory of Contacts, another on-line database of interested parties to climate change issues, and a set of tables that rate the level of available information on climate change as it relates to natural, economic and community systems. Other products include a report of a workshop on climate change research, 2 reports assessing the level of traditional northern knowledge about climate change, 2 reports assessing the completeness and value of the Infosource Database, a web site for NCE, and this report. All products are available to the public on the Internet or on a CD-ROM. The NCE Gap Analysis Project has shown there are inequalities in the amount of information across different systems, and that there is more knowledge on predicted temperature changes than for other climate components. The study notes that there are strong regional trends for compiled knowledge, with some regions having been better studied than others. The project revealed that traditional knowledge of climate change has not been well documented, and that more information exists about climate change impacts on biological systems with an economic component than those without economic significance. refs., tabs., figs

  8. Climate Ready Estuaries Partner Projects Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    CRE partners with the National Estuary Program to develop climate change projects in coastal U.S. areas, such as bays and harbors; to develop adaptation action plans, identify climate impacts and indicators, and more. This map shows project locations.

  9. Projecting the impacts of climate change on skipjack tuna abundance and spatial distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueri, Sibylle; Bopp, Laurent; Maury, Olivier

    2014-03-01

    Climate-induced changes in the physical, chemical, and biological environment are expected to increasingly stress marine ecosystems, with important consequences for fisheries exploitation. Here, we use the APECOSM-E numerical model (Apex Predator ECOSystem Model - Estimation) to evaluate the future impacts of climate change on the physiology, spatial distribution, and abundance of skipjack tuna, the worldwide most fished species of tropical tuna. The main novelties of our approach lie in the mechanistic link between environmental factors, metabolic rates, and behavioral responses and in the fully three dimensional representation of habitat and population abundance. Physical and biogeochemical fields used to force the model are provided by the last generation of the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model run from 1990 to 2100 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario (RCP8.5). Our simulations show significant changes in the spatial distribution of skipjack tuna suitable habitat, as well as in their population abundance. The model projects deterioration of skipjack habitat in most tropical waters and an improvement of habitat at higher latitudes. The primary driver of habitat changes is ocean warming, followed by food density changes. Our projections show an increase of global skipjack biomass between 2010 and 2050 followed by a marked decrease between 2050 and 2095. Spawning rates are consistent with population trends, showing that spawning depends primarily on the adult biomass. On the other hand, growth rates display very smooth temporal changes, suggesting that the ability of skipjack to keep high metabolic rates in the changing environment is generally effective. Uncertainties related to our model spatial resolution, to the lack or simplification of key processes and to the climate forcings are discussed. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Climate project screening tool: an aid for climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Sharon Yeh; Nikola M. Smith; Mary Beth Hennessy; Constance I. Millar

    2012-01-01

    To address the impacts of climate change, land managers need techniques for incorporating adaptation into ongoing or impending projects. We present a new tool, the Climate Project Screening Tool (CPST), for integrating climate change considerations into project planning as well as for developing concrete adaptation options for land managers. We designed CPST as part of...

  11. Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, C E; Monks, S A; Spracklen, D V; Arnold, S R; Forster, P M; Rap, A; Äijälä, M; Artaxo, P; Carslaw, K S; Chipperfield, M P; Ehn, M; Gilardoni, S; Heikkinen, L; Kulmala, M; Petäjä, T; Reddington, C L S; Rizzo, L V; Swietlicki, E; Vignati, E; Wilson, C

    2018-01-11

    The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that alter the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol, ozone and methane. Here we show that a scenario of complete global deforestation results in a net positive radiative forcing (RF; 0.12 W m -2 ) from SLCFs, with the negative RF from decreases in ozone and methane concentrations partially offsetting the positive aerosol RF. Combining RFs due to CO 2 , surface albedo and SLCFs suggests that global deforestation could cause 0.8 K warming after 100 years, with SLCFs contributing 8% of the effect. However, deforestation as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario leads to zero net RF from SLCF, primarily due to nonlinearities in the aerosol indirect effect.

  12. Downscaling Climate Projections to a Mountainous Landscape: A Climate Impact Assessment for the U.S. Northern Rockies Crown of the Continent Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyler, J.; Anderson, R.; Running, S. W.

    2010-12-01

    In topographically complex landscapes, there is often a mismatch in scale between global climate model projections and more local climate-forcing factors and related ecological/hydrological processes. To overcome this limitation, the objective of this study was to downscale climate projections to the rugged Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE) within the U.S. Northern Rockies and assess future impacts on water balances, vegetation dynamics, and carbon fluxes. A 40-year (1970-2009) spatial historical climate dataset (800m resolution, daily timestep) was generated for the CCE and modified for terrain influences. Regional climate projections were downscaled by applying them to the fine-scale historical dataset using a modified delta downscaling method and stochastic weather generator. The downscaled projections were used to drive the Biome-BGC ecosystem model. Overall CCE impacts included decreases in April 1 snow water equivalent, less days with snow on the ground, increased vegetation water stress, and increased growing degree days. The relaxing of temperature constraints increased annual net primary productivity (NPP) throughout most of the CCE landscape. However, an increase in water stress seems to have limited the growth in NPP and, in some areas, NPP actually decreased. Thus, CCE vegetation productivity trends under increasing temperatures will likely be determined by local changes in hydrologic function. Given the greater uncertainty in precipitation projections, future work should concentrate on determining thresholds in water constraints that greatly modify the magnitude and direction of carbon accumulation within the CCE under a warming climate.

  13. Using and Applying Focus Groups in Climate Change Impact Assessment Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLorme, D.; Hagen, S.

    2011-12-01

    The focus group social science research method is an efficient and flexible data collection tool with broad applicability across disciplines and contexts. Through group dynamics, this interviewing approach offers strengths in gathering candid, spontaneous comments and detailed firsthand descriptions from stakeholders' perspectives. The method, which can stand alone or be integrated with other research frameworks, has much potential for helping to manage complex issues of global change. For optimal outcomes, however, careful planning and procedures are paramount. This presentation offers guidance in this regard via examples, tips, and lessons learned from a multidisciplinary NOAA-funded project: Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (EESLR-NGOM). Focus groups are a key component of the EESLR-NGOM project as they are being used to better understand coastal resource managers' operational and information behaviors and needs regarding sea level rise (SLR), erosion, and hurricane storm surge impact; to learn how to best develop and translate the project's expected scientific results into straightforward, useful, and readily-disseminated products; and to gather outreach recommendations. As part of an EESLR-NGOM project kickoff workshop, 12 coastal resource managers participated voluntarily in a focus group. A summary of findings and illustrative participant quotations will be included in the presentation. The initial focus group was productive in gaining insights into challenges and opportunities associated with a climate change project such as the EESLR-NGOM. It highlighted the importance of considering the interrelationships of natural and built environments and new avenues for resilience and sustainability. The coastal resource managers are not only end-users but also opinion leaders in their local communities who will diffuse this information widely through their networks of other potential end-users. Engaging coastal resource managers in

  14. Climate Project Screening Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

    2011-01-01

    Climate change poses a challenge for resource managers as they review current management practices. Adaptation is a critical means of addressing climate change in the near future because, due to inherent time lags in climate impacts, the effects of increased atmospheric greenhouse gases will be felt for decades even if effective mitigation begins now. To address the...

  15. Projecting Poverty at the Household Scale to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Poor People

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, S.; Rozenberg, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and 2050, in 92 countries covering 90% of the developing world population. It accounts for the deep uncertainties that characterize future socio-economic evolutions and the lack of data regarding the condition and livelihood of poor people. It also considers many impacts of climate change, another source of uncertainty. We use a micro-simulation model based on household surveys and explore a wide range of uncertainties on future structural change, productivity growth or demographic changes. This results, for each country, in the creation of several hundred scenarios for future income growth and income distribution. We then explore the resulting space of possible futures and use scenario discovery techniques to identify the main drivers of inequalities and poverty reduction. We find that redistribution and structural change are powerful drivers of poverty and inequality reduction, except in low-income countries. In the poorest countries in Africa, reducing poverty cannot rely on redistribution but requires low population growth and productivity growth in agriculture. Once we have explored the space of possible outcomes for poverty and inequalities, we choose two representative scenarios of the best and worst cases and model the impacts of climate change in each of these two scenarios. Climate change impacts are modeled through 4 channels. First, climate change has an impact on labor productivity growth for people who work outside because of higher temperatures. Second, climate change has an impact on human capital because of more severe stunting in some places. Third, climate change has an impact on physical capital via more frequent natural disasters. Fourth, climate change has an impact on consumption because of changes in food prices. Impacts are very heterogeneous across countries and are mostly concentrated in African and South-East Asian countries. For high radiative forcing (RCP8

  16. US Food Security and Climate Change: Mid-Century Projections of Commodity Crop Production by the IMPACT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact

  17. Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate change: Findings from the URGENCHE EU-China project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sabel, C.E.; Hiscock, R.; Asikainen, A.; Bi, J.; Depledge, M.; Van Den Elshout, S.; Friedrich, R.; Huang, G.; Hurley, F.; Jantunen, M.; Karakitsios, S.P.; Keuken, M.; Kingham, S.; Kontoroupis, P.; Kuenzli, N.; Liu, M.; Martuzzi, M.; Morton, K.; Mudu, P.; Niittynen, M.; Perez, L.; Sarigiannis, D.; Stahl-Timmins, W.; Tobollik, M.; Tuomisto, J.; Willers, S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Climate change is a global threat to health and wellbeing. Here we provide findings of an international research project investigating the health and wellbeing impacts of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments. Methods: Five European and two Chinese city

  18. Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily

  19. Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolentino, Pamela Louise M.; Poortinga, Ate; Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

    2016-01-01

    The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces

  20. From GCM Output to Local Hydrologic and Ecological Impacts: Integrating Climate Change Projections into Conservation Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Thorne, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Assessment of climate change resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation options require downscaling of GCM outputs to local scales, and conversion of temperature and precipitation forcings into hydrologic and ecological responses. Recent work in the San Francisco Bay Area, and California demonstrate a practical approach to this process. First, climate futures (GCM x Emissions Scenario) are screened using cluster analysis for seasonal precipitation and temperature, to select a tractable subset of projections that still represent the range of climate projections. Second, monthly climate projections are downscaled to 270m and the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) applied, to generate fine-scale recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) accounting for soils, bedrock geology, topography, and local climate. Third, annual time-series are used to derive 30-year climatologies and recurrence intervals of extreme events (including multi-year droughts) at the scale of small watersheds and conservation parcels/networks. We take a "scenario-neutral" approach where thresholds are defined for system "failure," such as water supply shortfalls or drought mortality/vegetation transitions, and the time-window for hitting those thresholds is evaluated across all selected climate projections. San Francisco Bay Area examples include drought thresholds (CWD) for specific vegetation-types that identify leading/trailing edges and local refugia, evaluation of hydrologic resources (recharge and runoff) provided by conservation lands, and productivity of rangelands (AET). BCM outputs for multiple futures are becoming available to resource managers through on-line data extraction tools. This approach has wide applicability to numerous resource management issues.

  1. Impact assessment of projected climate change on diffuse phosphorous loss in Xin'anjiang catchment, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Yongyong

    2018-02-01

    Diffuse nutrient loss is a serious threat to water security and has severely deteriorated water quality throughout the world. Xin'anjiang catchment, as a main drinking water source for Hangzhou City, has been a national concern for water environment protection with payment for watershed services construction. Detection of diffuse phosphorous (DP) pollution dynamics under climate change is significant for sustainable water quality management. In this study, the impact of projected climate change on DP load was analyzed using SWAT to simulate the future changes of diffuse components (carriers: water discharge and sediment; nutrient: DP) at both station and sub-catchment scales under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Results showed that wetting and warming years were expected with increasing tendencies of both precipitation and temperature in the two future periods (2020s: 2021~2030, 2030s: 2031~2040) except in the 2020s in the RCP2.6 scenario, and the annual average increasing ratios of precipitation and temperature reached - 1.79~3.79% and 0.48~1.27 °C, respectively, comparing with those in the baseline (2000s: 2001~2010). Climate change evidently altered annual and monthly average water discharge and sediment load, while it has a remarkable impact on the timing and monthly value of DP load at station scale. DP load tended to increase in the non-flood season at Yuliang due to strengthened nutrient flushing from rice land into rivers with increasing precipitation and enhanced phosphorous cycle in soil layers with increasing temperature, while it tended to decrease in the flood season at Yuliang and in most months at Tunxi due to restricted phosphorous reaction with reduced dissolved oxygen content and enhanced dilution effect. Spatial variability existed in the changes of sediment load and DP load at sub-catchment scale due to climate change. DP load tended to decrease in most sub-catchments and was the most remarkable in the RCP8

  2. Investigating the Capacity of Hydrological Models to Project Impacts of Climate Change in the Context of Water Allocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velez, Carlos; Maroy, Edith; Rocabado, Ivan; Pereira, Fernando

    2017-04-01

    To analyse the impacts of climate changes, hydrological models are used to project the hydrology responds under future conditions that normally differ from those for which they were calibrated. The challenge is to assess the validity of the projected effects when there is not data to validate it. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change was proposed by Refsgaard et al., (2014). The authors recommend the use of the differential-split sample test (DSST) in order to build confidence in the model projections. The method follow three steps: 1. A small number of sub-periods are selected according to one climate characteristics, 2. The calibration - validation test is applied on these periods, 3. The validation performances are compered to evaluate whether they vary significantly when climatic characteristics differ between calibration and validation. DSST rely on the existing records of climate and hydrological variables; and performances are estimated based on indicators of error between observed and simulated variables. Other authors suggest that, since climate models are not able to reproduce single events but rather statistical properties describing the climate, this should be reflected when testing hydrological models. Thus, performance criteria such as RMSE should be replaced by for instance flow duration curves or other distribution functions. Using this type of performance criteria, Van Steenbergen and Willems, (2012) proposed a method to test the validity of hydrological models in a climate changing context. The method is based on the evaluation of peak flow increases due to different levels of rainfall increases. In contrast to DSST, this method use the projected climate variability and it is especially useful to compare different modelling tools. In the framework of a water allocation project for the region of Flanders (Belgium) we calibrated three hydrological models: NAM, PDM and VHM; for 67 gauged sub-catchments with approx

  3. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quali...

  4. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-08-07

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario, but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras.

  5. A model validation framework for climate change projection and impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Refsgaard, Jens C.; Andréassian, Vazken

    2014-01-01

    methods for projection of climate change (single and ensemble model projections and space‐timesubstitution) and use of different data sources as proxy for future climate conditions (long historical records comprising non‐ stationarity, paleo data, and controlled experiments). The basic guiding principles...... proxy data, reflecting future conditions. This test can be used with both single and ensemble model projections as well as with space‐time‐substitutions. It is generally expected to be more powerful when applied to a model ensemble than to a single model. Since space‐timesubstitutions include...... a differential split‐sample test using best available proxy data that reflect the expected future conditions at the site being considered. Such proxy data may be obtained from long historical records comprising nonstationarity, paleo data, or controlled experiments. The test can be applied with different...

  6. Combining projected changes in species richness and composition reveals climate change impacts on coastal Mediterranean fish assemblages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albouy, Camille; Guilhaumon, François; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2012-01-01

    future climatic niches of 288 coastal Mediterranean fish species based on a global warming scenario. We then aggregated geographically the species-level projections to analyse the projected changes in species richness and composition. Our results show that projected changes in assemblage composition....... nestedness), separately. We also present a mapping strategy to simultaneously visualize changes in species richness and assemblage composition. To illustrate our approach, we used the Mediterranean coastal fish fauna as a case study. Using Bioclimatic Envelope Models (BEMs) we first projected the potential......, the joint exploration of changes in species richness and composition coupled with the distinction between species replacement and nestedness bears important information for understanding the nature of climate change impacts on biodiversity. These methodological advances should help decision...

  7. Climate Projection Data base for Roads - CliPDaR: Design a guideline for a transnational database of downscaled climate projection data for road impact models - within the Conference's of European Directors of Roads (CEDR) TRANSNATIONAL ROAD RESEARCH PROG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matulla, Christoph; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Türk, Konrad

    2013-04-01

    The European road sector is vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena, which can cause large socio-economic losses. Almost every year there occur several weather triggered events (like heavy precipitation, floods, landslides, high winds, snow and ice, heat or cold waves, etc.), that disrupt transportation, knock out power lines, cut off populated regions from the outside and so on. So, in order to avoid imbalances in the supply of vital goods to people as well as to prevent negative impacts on health and life of people travelling by car it is essential to know present and future threats to roads. Climate change might increase future threats to roads. CliPDaR focuses on parts of the European road network and contributes, based on the current body of knowledge, to the establishment of guidelines helping to decide which methods and scenarios to apply for the estimation of future climate change based challenges in the field of road maintenance. Based on regional scale climate change projections specific road-impact models are applied in order to support protection measures. In recent years, it has been recognised that it is essential to assess the uncertainty and reliability of given climate projections by using ensemble approaches and downscaling methods. A huge amount of scientific work has been done to evaluate these approaches with regard to reliability and usefulness for investigations on possible impacts of climate changes. CliPDaR is going to collect the existing approaches and methodologies in European countries, discuss their differences and - in close cooperation with the road owners - develops a common line on future applications of climate projection data to road impact models. As such, the project will focus on reviewing and assessing existing regional climate change projections regarding transnational highway transport needs. The final project report will include recommendations how the findings of CliPDaR may support the decision processes of European

  8. Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elliott L Matchett

    Full Text Available The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration

  9. Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matchett, Elliott L; Fleskes, Joseph P

    2017-01-01

    The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

  10. Projected impacts of climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration on waterbird habitat in California’s Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph

    2017-01-01

    The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

  11. Projected Climate Impacts to South African Maize and Wheat Production in 2055: A Comparison of Empirical and Mechanistic Modeling Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Lyndon D.; Beukes, Hein; Bradley, Bethany A.; Debats, Stephanie R.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Ruane, Alex C.; Schulze, Roland; Tadross, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs' median-projected maize and wheat yield changes were 3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water-use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO2 accounted for much of the EMMM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EMMM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop-climate response uncertainties.

  12. CITYZEN climate impact studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutz, Martin (ed.)

    2011-07-01

    We have estimated the impact of climate change on the chemical composition of the troposphere due to changes in climate from current climate (2000-2010) looking 40 years ahead (2040-2050). The climate projection has been made by the ECHAM5 model and was followed by chemistry-transport modelling using a global model, Oslo CTM2 (Isaksen et al., 2005; Srvde et al., 2008), and a regional model, EMEP. In this report we focus on carbon monoxide (CO) and surface ozone (O3) which are measures of primary and secondary air pollution. In parallel we have estimated the change in the same air pollutants resulting from changes in emissions over the same time period. (orig.)

  13. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J.; Ulber, B.; Vidal, S.; Eickermann, M.

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  14. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J; Ulber, B; Vidal, S; Eickermann, M

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  15. Including the biogeochemical impacts of deforestation increases projected warming of climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Catherine; Monks, Sarah; Spracklen, Dominick; Arnold, Stephen; Forster, Piers; Rap, Alexandru; Carslaw, Kenneth; Chipperfield, Martyn; Reddington, Carly; Wilson, Christopher

    2016-04-01

    Forests cover almost one third of the Earth's land area and their distribution is changing as a result of human activities. The presence, and removal, of forests affects the climate in many ways, with the net climate impact of deforestation dependent upon the relative strength of these effects (Betts, 2000; Bala et al., 2007; Davin and de Noblet-Ducoudré, 2010). In addition to controlling the surface albedo and exchanging carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which lead to the formation of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and alter the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, affecting ozone (O3) and methane (CH4) concentrations. In this work, we combine a land-surface model with a chemical transport model, a global aerosol model, and a radiative transfer model to compare several radiative impacts of idealised deforestation scenarios in the present day. We find that the simulated reduction in biogenic SOA production, due to complete global deforestation, exerts a positive combined aerosol radiative forcing (RF) of between +308.0 and +362.7 mW m-2; comprised of a direct radiative effect of between +116.5 and +165.0 mW m-2, and a first aerosol indirect effect of between +191.5 and +197.7 mW m-2. We find that the reduction in O3 exerts a negative RF of -150.7 mW m-2 and the reduction in CH4 results in a negative RF of -76.2 mWm-2. When the impacts on biogenic SOA, O3 and CH4 are combined, global deforestation exerts an overall positive RF of between +81.1 and +135.9 mW m-2 through changes to short-lived climate forcers (SLCF). Taking these additional biogeochemical impacts into account increases the net positive RF of complete global deforestation, due to changes in CO2 and surface albedo, by 7-11%. Overall, our work suggests that deforestation has a stronger warming impact on climate than previously thought. References: Bala, G. et al., 2007. Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects

  16. Spatial uncertainty in bias corrected climate change projections and hydrogeological impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Sonnenborg, Torben

    2015-01-01

    Model pairing, this paper analyses the relationship between complexity and robustness of three distribution-based scaling (DBS) bias correction methods applied to daily precipitation at various spatial scales. Hydrological simulations are forced by CM inputs to assess the spatial uncertainty......The question of which climate model bias correction methods and spatial scales for correction are optimal for both projecting future hydrological changes as well as removing initial model bias has so far received little attention. For 11 climate models (CMs), or GCM/RCM – Global/Regional Climate...... signals. The magnitude of spatial bias seen in precipitation inputs does not necessarily correspond to the magnitude of biases seen in hydrological outputs. Variables that integrate basin responses over time and space are more sensitive to mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. Hydrological...

  17. Impacts of climate change on peanut yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hanqing; Tian, Zhan; Zhong, Honglin; Fan, Dongli; Shi, Runhe; Niu, Yilong; He, Xiaogang; Chen, Maosi

    2017-09-01

    Peanut is one of the major edible vegetable oil crops in China, whose growth and yield are very sensitive to climate change. In addition, agriculture climate resources are expected to be redistributed under climate change, which will further influence the growth, development, cropping patterns, distribution and production of peanut. In this study, we used the DSSAT-Peanut model to examine the climate change impacts on peanut production, oil industry and oil food security in China. This model is first calibrated using site observations including 31 years' (1981-2011) climate, soil and agronomy data. This calibrated model is then employed to simulate the future peanut yield based on 20 climate scenarios from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) developed by the InterSectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) driven by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results indicate that the irrigated peanut yield will decrease 2.6% under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 9.9% under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 29% under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, the rain-fed peanut yield will also decrease, with a 2.5% reduction under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 11.5% reduction under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 30% reduction under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively.

  18. City of Iqaluit's climate change impacts, infrastructure risks and adaptive capacity project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, D.; Kronenberger, J.

    2007-03-01

    The City of Iqaluit is an Arctic community that is very susceptible to the stresses of climate change. The city is challenged by increased flooding, coastal erosion and ground instability caused by melting of the permafrost layer. In response, the City of Iqaluit has created policies to reduce greenhouse gases and act on climate change. A project has also been launched to develop adaptation strategies, with particular focus on infrastructure vulnerability given the environmental and climate change in the Canadian Arctic. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the biophysical exposure and hazards on Arctic coasts subject to effects of climate change, identify past and current management strategies used to manage risks in coastal communities which have already experienced environmental change, and to evaluate the adaptive capacity of communities for dealing with coastal hazards throughout the Arctic. This document identified the risks to Iqaluit's infrastructure, including buildings, roads, water supply, wastewater treatment and waste disposal systems. Adaptation options were also developed. These ranged from educational programs and retrofits to policy changes and building standard amendments. refs., tabs., figs

  19. A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Fei

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

  20. Understanding the Reach of Agricultural Impacts from Climate Extremes in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to build a modeling framework capable of representing the complexities of agriculture, its dependence on climate, and the many elements of society that depend on food systems. AgMIP's 30+ activities explore the interconnected nature of climate, crop, livestock, economics, food security, and nutrition, using common protocols to systematically evaluate the components of agricultural assessment and allow multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-method analysis of intertwining changes in socioeconomic development, environmental change, and technological adaptation. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) with a particular focus on unforeseen consequences of development strategies, interactions between global and local systems, and the resilience of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. Climate extremes shock the agricultural system through local, direct impacts (e.g., droughts, heat waves, floods, severe storms) and also through teleconnections propagated through international trade. As the climate changes, the nature of climate extremes affecting agriculture is also likely to change, leading to shifting intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extents of extremes. AgMIP researchers are developing new scenario methodologies to represent near-term extreme droughts in a probabilistic manner, field experiments that impose heat wave conditions on crops, increased resolution to differentiate sub-national drought impacts, new behavioral functions that mimic the response of market actors faced with production shortfalls, analysis of impacts from simultaneous failures of multiple breadbasket regions, and more detailed mapping of food and socioeconomic indicators into food security and nutrition metrics that describe the human impact in diverse populations. Agricultural models illustrate the challenges facing agriculture, allowing

  1. Projected Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

    2016-01-01

    The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century). Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country. PMID:27749908

  2. Projected health impacts of heat events in Washington State associated with climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael; Hom, Elizabeth; Fenske, Richard

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and duration of extreme-heat events and associated health outcomes. This study used data from the historical heat-health outcome relationship, and a unique prediction model, to estimate mortality for 2025 and 2045. For each one degree change in humidex above threshold, we find a corresponding 1.83% increase in mortality for all ages, all non-traumatic causes of death in King County, Washington. Mortality is projected to increase significantly in 2025 and 2045 for the 85 and older age group (2.3-8.0 and 4.0-22.3 times higher than baseline, respectively).

  3. Modelling the impacts of projected future climate change on water resources in north-west England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last two decades, the frequency of water resource drought in the UK, coupled with the more recent pan-European drought of 2003, has increased concern over changes in climate. Using the UKCIP02 Medium-High (SRES A2 scenario for 2070–2100, this study investigates the impact of climate change on the operation of the Integrated Resource Zone (IRZ, a complex conjunctive-use water supply system in north-western England. The results indicate that the contribution of individual sources to yield may change substantially but that overall yield is reduced by only 18%. Notwithstanding this significant effect on water supply, the flexibility of the system enables it to meet modelled demand for much of the time under the future climate scenario, even without a change in system management, but at significant expense for pumping additional abstraction from lake and borehole sources. This research provides a basis for the future planning and management of the complex water resource system in the north-west of England.

  4. Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sujakhu, Nani M.; Merz, Juerg; Kindt, Roeland; Xu, Jianchu; Matin, Mir A.; Ali, Mostafa; Zomer, Robert J.

    2016-01-01

    The Government of Nepal has identified opportunities in agricultural commercialization, responding to a growing internal demand and expansion of export markets to reduce the immense trade deficit. Several cash crops, including coffee and bananas, have been identified in the recently approved Agriculture Development Strategy. Both of these crops have encouraged smallholder farmers to convert their subsistence farming practices to more commercial cultivation. Identification of suitable agro-ecological zones and understanding climate-related issues are important for improved production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Here, the suitability of coffee and banana crops is analyzed for different agro-ecological zones represented by Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS). Future shifts in these suitability zones are also predicted. Plantation sites in Nepal were geo-referenced and used as input in species distribution modelling. The multi-model ensemble model suggests that climate change will reduce the suitable growing area for coffee by about 72% across the selected emission scenarios from now to 2050. Impacts are low for banana growing, with a reduction in suitability by about 16% by 2050. Bananas show a lot of potential for playing an important role in Nepal as a sustainable crop in the context of climate change, as this study indicates that the amount of area suited to banana growing will grow by 40% by 2050. Based on our analysis we recommend possible new locations for coffee plantations and one method for mitigating climate change-related problems on existing plantations. These findings are expected to support planning and policy dialogue for mitigation and support better informed and scientifically based decision-making relating to these two crops. PMID:27689354

  5. Projected climate change impacts upon dew yield in the Mediterranean basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomaszkiewicz, M. [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut (Lebanon); Abou Najm, M., E-mail: majdian@aub.edu.lb [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut (Lebanon); Beysens, D. [Physique et Mecanique des Milieux Heterogenes, UMR 7636 CNRS — ESPCI, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie — Universite Paris Diderot, 10 rue Vauquelin, 75005 Paris (France); Service des Basses Temperatures, CEA-Grenoble & Universite Joseph Fourier, Grenoble (France); OPUR, 60 rue Emeriau, 75015 Paris (France); Alameddine, I. [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut (Lebanon); Bou Zeid, E. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); El-Fadel, M. [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut (Lebanon)

    2016-10-01

    Water scarcity is increasingly raising the need for non-conventional water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. In this context, atmospheric moisture can potentially be harvested in the form of dew, which is commonly disregarded from the water budget, although its impact may be significant when compared to rainfall during the dry season. In this study, a dew atlas for the Mediterranean region is presented illustrating dew yields using the yield data collected for the 2013 dry season. The results indicate that cumulative monthly dew yield in the region can exceed 2.8 mm at the end of the dry season and 1.5 mm during the driest months, compared to < 1 mm of rainfall during the same period in some areas. Dew yields were compared with potential evapotranspiration (PET) and actual evapotranspiration (ET) during summer months thus highlighting the role of dew to many native plants in the region. Furthermore, forecasted trends in temperature and relative humidity were used to estimate dew yields under future climatic scenarios. The results showed a 27% decline in dew yield during the critical summer months at the end of the century (2080). - Highlights: • Dew atlas for Mediterranean region is presented. • Cumulative dew yields can exceed 2.8 mm at the end of the dry season. • Dew yields compared with PET and ET show the role of dew to many native plants. • Forecasted trends under future climatic scenarios show a 27% decline in dew yield.

  6. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, S. N.; Taylor, R. G.; Arnell, N. W.; Todd, M. C.

    2011-01-01

    We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangxi (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard), SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong), Pitman (Okavango), MGB-IPH (Rio Grande), AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi) and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook). The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2) a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%), and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff. However

  7. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Gosling

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM. Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada, Mekong (SE Asia, Okavango (SW Africa, Rio Grande (Brazil, Xiangxi (China and Harper's Brook (UK. A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09 is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard, SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong, Pitman (Okavango, MGB-IPH (Rio Grande, AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook. The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5 and low (Q95 monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990 and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1 prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2 a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty.

    We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff

  8. Assessing potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation of three reservoirs in the Tagus River Basin under ensemble of climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobanova, Anastasia; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina

    2015-04-01

    Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org) climate projections, and include five bias-corrected for the region datasets obtained from GCM model runs under two emissions scenario.

  9. Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project. Climatic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amelung, B.; Moreno, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based on the statistical relationship between bed nights

  10. Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo; Diaz, Julio; Hooyberghs, Hans

    2018-01-01

    Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. Methods We modelled the urban climate...... climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence....

  11. Impacts of changes in climate and socio-economic factors on land use in the Rhine basin. Projections for the decade 2040-2049

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roetter, R.P.; Veeneklaas, F.R.; Van Diepen, C.A. [DLO Winand Staring Centre, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    The purpose of this study was to develop land use projections for the middle of the next century. To separate the influence of climate change from other factors on land use, projections (a Central Projection and two variants) were made under both unchanged and changed climate. They cover the plausible range of alternative land claims of agriculture and urbanization. Impacts of climate change on land suitability as well as overall changes in the acreages of several land use categories are presented. 3 tabs., 7 refs.

  12. Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate change: findings from the URGENCHE EU-China project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabel, Clive E; Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Bi, Jun; Depledge, Mike; van den Elshout, Sef; Friedrich, Rainer; Huang, Ganlin; Hurley, Fintan; Jantunen, Matti; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Keuken, Menno; Kingham, Simon; Kontoroupis, Periklis; Kuenzli, Nino; Liu, Miaomiao; Martuzzi, Marco; Morton, Katie; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Niittynen, Marjo; Perez, Laura; Sarigiannis, Denis; Stahl-Timmins, Will; Tobollik, Myriam; Tuomisto, Jouni; Willers, Saskia

    2016-03-08

    Climate change is a global threat to health and wellbeing. Here we provide findings of an international research project investigating the health and wellbeing impacts of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments. Five European and two Chinese city authorities and partner academic organisations formed the project consortium. The methodology involved modelling the impact of adopted urban climate-change mitigation transport, buildings and energy policy scenarios, usually for the year 2020 and comparing them with business as usual (BAU) scenarios (where policies had not been adopted). Carbon dioxide emissions, health impacting exposures (air pollution, noise and physical activity), health (cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer and leukaemia) and wellbeing (including noise related wellbeing, overall wellbeing, economic wellbeing and inequalities) were modelled. The scenarios were developed from corresponding known levels in 2010 and pre-existing exposure response functions. Additionally there were literature reviews, three longitudinal observational studies and two cross sectional surveys. There are four key findings. Firstly introduction of electric cars may confer some small health benefits but it would be unwise for a city to invest in electric vehicles unless their power generation fuel mix generates fewer emissions than petrol and diesel. Second, adopting policies to reduce private car use may have benefits for carbon dioxide reduction and positive health impacts through reduced noise and increased physical activity. Third, the benefits of carbon dioxide reduction from increasing housing efficiency are likely to be minor and co-benefits for health and wellbeing are dependent on good air exchange. Fourthly, although heating dwellings by in-home biomass burning may reduce carbon dioxide emissions, consequences for health and wellbeing were negative with the technology in use in the cities studied. The climate-change reduction policies reduced

  13. Climatic impacts on managed forests: projecting the future from the past

    OpenAIRE

    Martel, Simon; Picart, Delphine; Bosc, Alexandre; Moisy, Christophe; Lafont, Sebastien; Loustau, Denis; Picard, Olivier; Breda, Nathalie

    2015-01-01

    Forests are one of the most vulnerable ecosystem under the coming climate changeand a growing concern arise about their capacity to maintain ecosystem services suchas production of timber, fiber and energy, climate and hydrological regulations, or soil and biodiversity protection. Climate effects are significant not only at a short timescale, but also on the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle, e.g. through continuous shifts in atmospheric CO2 concentration, air temperature and precipitat...

  14. Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sicard

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of ground-level ozone (O3 on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5. To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4–5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2–10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

  15. Impacts of wave energy conversion devices on local wave climate: observations and modelling from the Perth Wave Energy Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoeke, Ron; Hemer, Mark; Contardo, Stephanie; Symonds, Graham; Mcinnes, Kathy

    2016-04-01

    As demonstrated by the Australian Wave Energy Atlas (AWavEA), the southern and western margins of the country possess considerable wave energy resources. The Australia Government has made notable investments in pre-commercial wave energy developments in these areas, however little is known about how this technology may impact local wave climate and subsequently affect neighbouring coastal environments, e.g. altering sediment transport, causing shoreline erosion or accretion. In this study, a network of in-situ wave measurement devices have been deployed surrounding the 3 wave energy converters of the Carnegie Wave Energy Limited's Perth Wave Energy Project. This data is being used to develop, calibrate and validate numerical simulations of the project site. Early stage results will be presented and potential simulation strategies for scaling-up the findings to larger arrays of wave energy converters will be discussed. The intended project outcomes are to establish zones of impact defined in terms of changes in local wave energy spectra and to initiate best practice guidelines for the establishment of wave energy conversion sites.

  16. A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, K.; Levermann, A.; Elliott, J.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Döll, P.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A. D.; Gellhorn, C.; Gosling, S. N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Neumann, K.; Oki, T.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A. C.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Stacke, T.; Stehfest, E.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Schewe, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

    2015-07-01

    Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation

  17. Climate Trends and Impacts in China

    OpenAIRE

    Chris Sall

    2013-01-01

    This discussion paper summarizes observed and projected trends in extreme weather events, present-day climate variability, and future climate change and their impacts on China's different regions. Findings are presented from China's national assessment report on climate change (2007) and second national assessment report on climate change (2011) as well as other studies by Chinese and inte...

  18. Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2016-01-01

    Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  19. A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, K.; Elliott, Joshua; Levermann, A.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Doll, P.; hide

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impactmodel setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation

  20. Assessing the Climate Impacts of Cookstove Projects: Issues in Emissions Accounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carrie M. Lee

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available An estimated 2.6 billion people rely on traditional biomass for home cooking and heating, so improving the efficiency of household cookstoves could provide significant environmental, social and economic benefits. Some researchers have estimated that potential greenhouse gas emission reductions could exceed 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e per year. Carbon finance offers a policy mechanism for realizing some of this potential and could also bring improved monitoring to cookstove projects. However, there are formidable methodological challenges in estimating emission reductions. This paper evaluates the quantification approaches to three key variables in calculating emission impacts: biomass fuel consumption, fraction of non-renewable biomass, and emission factors for fuel consumption. It draws on a literature review as well as on interviews with technical experts and market actors, and identifies lessons learned and knowledge gaps. Key research needs identified include incorporating accounting for uncertainty; development of additional default factors for biomass consumption for baseline stoves; refinement of monitoring approaches for cookstove use; broadened scope of emission factors used for cookstoves; accounting for non-CO2 gases and black carbon; and refinement of estimates and approaches to considering emissions from bioenergy use across methodologies.

  1. Impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: assessing the benefits of avoided greenhouse gas emissions using selected CMIP5 climate projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Portmann, Felix T; Döll, Petra; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina

    2013-01-01

    Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to minimize climate change requires very significant societal effort. To motivate this effort, it is important to clarify the benefits of avoided emissions. To this end, we analysed the impact of four emissions scenarios on future renewable groundwater resources, which range from 1600 GtCO 2 during the 21st century (RCP2.6) to 7300 GtCO 2 (RCP8.5). Climate modelling uncertainty was taken into account by applying the bias-corrected output of a small ensemble of five CMIP5 global climate models (GCM) as provided by the ISI-MIP effort to the global hydrological model WaterGAP. Despite significant climate model uncertainty, the benefits of avoided emissions with respect to renewable groundwater resources (i.e. groundwater recharge (GWR)) are obvious. The percentage of projected global population (SSP2 population scenario) suffering from a significant decrease of GWR of more than 10% by the 2080s as compared to 1971–2000 decreases from 38% (GCM range 27–50%) for RCP8.5 to 24% (11–39%) for RCP2.6. The population fraction that is spared from any significant GWR change would increase from 29% to 47% if emissions were restricted to RCP2.6. Increases of GWR are more likely to occur in areas with below average population density, while GWR decreases of more than 30% affect especially (semi)arid regions, across all GCMs. Considering change of renewable groundwater resources as a function of mean global temperature (GMT) rise, the land area that is affected by GWR decreases of more than 30% and 70% increases linearly with global warming from 0 to 3 ° C. For each degree of GMT rise, an additional 4% of the global land area (except Greenland and Antarctica) is affected by a GWR decrease of more than 30%, and an additional 1% is affected by a decrease of more than 70%. (letter)

  2. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

    1996-01-01

    The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

  3. Final report of the project GICC-MedWater (march 2003/february 2006). Impacts of the climatic change on the hydrological cycle of the mediterranean basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, L.

    2006-03-01

    In the framework of the climatic change, the management of the impacts needs a precise knowledge of the change characteristics at the regional scale. The hydrological cycle is an important component of the mediterranean regional climate. The GICC-MedWater project is placed in the scope of climatic scenari regionalization and studies the characteristics of the climatic warming for the mediterranean basin. The main objective is to propose scenari of the climate evolution, for the mediterranean basin region and the impacts on the general circulation and the biology of Mediterranean Sea. It also includes a validation of the models in order to verify the the quality of the obtained scenari. (A.L.B.)

  4. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is

  5. Understanding Climate Change Impacts in a Cholera Endemic Megacity: Disease Trends, Hydroclimatic Indicators and Near Future-Term Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S. S.; Hasan, M. A.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. While an endemic trend is getting stronger in the dry season, the post-monsoon season shows increased variability and is epidemic in nature. The pre-monsoon dry season is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year, followed by monsoon flood related propagation in later months of the year. Although the heavily populated and rapidly urbanizing Dhaka region has experienced noticeable shifts in pre monsoon temperature and precipitation patterns and subsequent monsoon variations, to date, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with observed changes in hydroclimatic indicators. Here, we focus on the past 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings to develop projections for the next 30-year period. We focus on the dry and the wet season indicators individually, and develop trends of maximum rainfall intensity, lowest rainfall totals in the pre-monsoon period, number of consecutive dry days, number of wet days, and number of rainy days with greater than 500mm rainfall using a recently developed gridded data product - and compare with regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, and frequency of natural disasters. We then use a bias correction method to develop the next 30 years projections of CMIP5 Regional Climate Model outputs and impacts on cholera prevalence using a probabilistic forecasting approach.

  6. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reysset, Bertrand; Billes-Garabedian, Laurent; Henique, Julien; Pascal, Mathilde; Pirard, Philippe; Motreff, Yvon; Barbault, Robert; Weber, Jacques; Gate, Philippe; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Desplat, Julien; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaelle

    2012-01-01

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  7. Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

    2014-01-01

    Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly

  8. Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rory L Hodd

    Full Text Available Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1 oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2 species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3 species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need

  9. Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    A physically-based water and energy balance model is used to simulate natural snow accumulation at 247 winter recreation locations across the continental United States. We combine this model with projections of snowmaking conditions to determine downhill skiing, cross-country ski...

  10. Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brink, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Loh, Rhonda; Price, Jonathan; Fortini, Lucas B.

    2018-06-05

    Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where currently managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitats in the future as the climate changes. Expanding invasive-species distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate.The objective of this project was to combine recent climate-modeling efforts for the state of Hawai‘i with existing models of plant-species distribution in order to forecast suitable habitat ranges under future climate conditions derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) global circulation model that was dynamically downscaled for the Hawaiian Islands by using the Hawai‘i Regional Climate Model (HRCM). The HRCM uses the A1B emission scenario (a median future climate projection) from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). On the basis of this model, maps showing projected plant-species ranges were generated for four years as snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, 2090) and for three different trajectories of climate change (gradual, linear, rapid) between the present and future.We mapped probabilistic surfaces of suitable habitat for 39 plant species (both native and alien [nonnative]) identified as being of interest to HAVO resource managers. We displayed these surfaces in terms of change relative to present conditions, whether the range of a given plant species was expected to contract, expand, or remain the same in the future. Within HAVO, approximately two-thirds (18 of 29) of the modeled native plant species were projected to contract in range

  11. Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yanluan; Dong, Wenhao; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Yuanyu; Xue, Wei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

    2017-10-12

    Climate models show a conspicuous summer warm and dry bias over the central United States. Using results from 19 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we report a persistent dependence of warm bias on dry bias with the precipitation deficit leading the warm bias over this region. The precipitation deficit is associated with the widespread failure of models in capturing strong rainfall events in summer over the central U.S. A robust linear relationship between the projected warming and the present-day warm bias enables us to empirically correct future temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario, the corrections substantially narrow the intermodel spread of the projections and reduce the projected temperature by 2.5 K, resulting mainly from the removal of the warm bias. Instead of a sharp decrease, after this correction the projected precipitation is nearly neutral for all scenarios.Climate models repeatedly show a warm and dry bias over the central United States, but the origin of this bias remains unclear. Here the authors associate this bias to precipitation deficits in models and after applying a correction, projected precipitation in this region shows no significant changes.

  12. Climate Change Impacts on Projections of Excess Mortality at 2030 using Spatially-Varying Ozone-Temperature Risk Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G.

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995–2005) and near-future (2025–2035) time period while incorporating a nonlinear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate nonlinear, spatially-varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 ppb (moderate level) and 75 ppb (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 ppb and 1.94°F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone due to climate change result in an increase in ozone-mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 ppb increases by 7.7% (1.6%, 14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 ppb increases by 14.2% (1.6%, 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. PMID:27005744

  13. Climate change impacts on runoff and hydropower in the Nordic countries. Final report from the project 'Climate change and energy production'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roar Saelthun, N.; Aittoniemi, P.; Bergstroem, S.

    1998-01-01

    The Nordic research program 'Climate change and energy production' has been carried out in co-operation between the Nordic hydrological services and the Nordic hydroelectric power industry with funding from the Nordic Council of Ministers and participating institutions. The program has been running for the period 1991-1996. The main objective of the research program was to analyse the effects of a future global climate change on the Nordic system for hydroelectric power production due to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The main parts of the program have been: A. Testing and improvements of hydrological models, with special emphasis on evapotranspiration, snow melt and glacier mass balance submodels. B. Assessment of the capability of existing energy planning models to analyse climate change impacts. C. Establishment of state-of-art scenarios for meteorological variables. Estimation of runoff scenarios. D. Analysis of climate change impacts on electricity consumption. E. Analysis of impacts on the hydropower systems, on national and regional scale, including effects on floods and dam safety issues. F. Analysis of climatic variability and climatic trends of hydrological records, including annual, seasonal and extreme values. (au) 171 refs

  14. Projected Impacts of Bioenergy-Demand-Induced Land Use and Cover Changes on Regional Climate in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Yin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy shortfalls are becoming more and more serious all over the world, and worldwide governments have tried to promote the development of biofuels in order to mitigate the climatic impacts of massive fossil fuel consumption. Since the land is the main input factor of the bioenergy production, the development of biofuels will inevitably lead to change of the land use structure and allocation and thereby affect the climate system. With Central Europe as the study area, this study explored the impacts of land use/land cover change (LUCC on climate under the influence of demand of bioenergy production for land resources. First, the land use structure from 2010 to 2050 is simulated with the Agriculture and Land Use model in MiniCam. The result indicates that the main conversion will be mainly from grassland and forest to cropland and from cropland to grassland. Then the Dynamics of Land System model was used to spatially simulate the LUCC in the future. The impacts of LUCC on the climate were analyzed on the basis of simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model. The climate change will be characterized by the increase of latent heat flux and temperature and the decrease of precipitation.

  15. Costs of climate impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, W O

    1980-03-01

    The surest prospect for future world climate patterns is that they will differ from present ones. What is uncertain is how much, and exactly in what way in different geographical regions. The anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ increase will probably exceed the unknown forcing functions of natural climate change within 30 to 60 years. It is not unlikely that by AD 2040 the world's climate, driven by the CO/sub 2/ increase, will enter a domain warmer than any within the past few million years. The costs of averting this climate change or of absorbing its impact are likely to be huge, even though today imponderable. Not least among these are intangible and unquantifiable costs associated with changes in human values and the quality of everyday life for future generations.

  16. The IAHR project CCHE-Climate Change impact on the Hydrological cycle, water management and Engineering: an overview and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranzi, Roberto; Kojiri, T.; Mynett, A.; Barontini, S.; van de Giesen, N.; Kolokytha, E.; Ngo, L. A.; Oreamuno, R.; Renard, B.; Sighomnou, D.; Vizina, A.

    2010-05-01

    IAHR, the International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research launched a research Project called Climate Change impact on the Hydrological cycle, water management and Engineering (IAHR CCHE Project). It was motivated by the fact that, although it is now well accepted that, in the light of the recent IPCC reports the vast majority of members of the scientific community are convinced that the climate is changing or at least will experience a significant fluctuation already during the current century, it is perceived that some hydrologists, water experts and hydraulic engineers are not yet ready to incorporate climate change scenarios in their designs for such projects as: - flood protection and river training, - dam rehabilitation, - water resources management under water scarcity and changes in the hydrological regimes. The objective of the project is to encourage a close co-operation between the scientific and engineering communities in taking appropriate and timely action in response to the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime and on water resource projects. The project aims at reporting on (a) the current state of knowledge as regards the impact of projected climate change on the hydrological regime in different regions of the world, where these regions are defined not just in geographic terms but also on the basis of their level of economic and water resources development; (b) the extent to which these impacts are recognized and taken into account by national water authorities, engineering organizations and other regulating bodies in setting their standard practices and procedures for the planning, design and operation of water works. These adaptation measures will include both "hard" responses, such as the construction or enlargement of engineering structures, and "soft" responses, such as changes in legislation or the operating rules of existing structures. An overview of the project and preliminary results extracted from of

  17. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Water-Ecosystem Quality in Polar and Mountainous Regions: A New Interregional Project (INT5153)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dercon, Gerd [Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition Subprogramme, Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, IAEA, Seibersdorf (Austria); Gerardo-Abaya, Jane [Division for Asia and the Pacific Section 2, Department of Technical Cooperation, IAEA, Vienna (Austria); Mavlyudov, Bulat [Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); others, and

    2014-07-15

    The INT5153 project aims to improve the understanding of the impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems on both a local and global scale for their better management and conservation. Seven core and five related benchmark sites have been selected from different global regions for specific assessments of the impact of climate change with the following expected outcomes and outputs: Outcomes: • Improved understanding of the impact of climate change on the cryosphere in polar and mountainous ecosystems and its effects on landwater- ecosystem quality at both local and global scales. • Recommendations for improvement of regional policies for soil and agricultural water management, conservation, and environmental protection in polar and mountainous regions. Outputs: • Specific strategies to minimize the adverse effects of, and adapt to, reduced seasonal snow and glacier covered areas on land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountain regions across the world. • Enhanced interregional network of laboratories and institutions competent in the assessment of climate change impacts on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality, using isotopic and nuclear techniques. • Increased number of young scientists trained in the use of isotope and nuclear techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountainous ecosystems. • Platform/database with global access for continuing work and monitoring of impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems at local and global scales, as well as for communicating findings to policy makers and communities. • Improved understanding of the effects of climate change disseminated through appropriate publications, policy briefs, and through a dedicated internet platform. • Methodologies and protocols for investigations in specific ecosystems and conservation/adaptation measures for agriculture areas.

  18. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Water-Ecosystem Quality in Polar and Mountainous Regions: A New Interregional Project (INT5153)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dercon, Gerd; Gerardo-Abaya, Jane; Mavlyudov, Bulat

    2014-01-01

    The INT5153 project aims to improve the understanding of the impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems on both a local and global scale for their better management and conservation. Seven core and five related benchmark sites have been selected from different global regions for specific assessments of the impact of climate change with the following expected outcomes and outputs: Outcomes: • Improved understanding of the impact of climate change on the cryosphere in polar and mountainous ecosystems and its effects on landwater- ecosystem quality at both local and global scales. • Recommendations for improvement of regional policies for soil and agricultural water management, conservation, and environmental protection in polar and mountainous regions. Outputs: • Specific strategies to minimize the adverse effects of, and adapt to, reduced seasonal snow and glacier covered areas on land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountain regions across the world. • Enhanced interregional network of laboratories and institutions competent in the assessment of climate change impacts on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality, using isotopic and nuclear techniques. • Increased number of young scientists trained in the use of isotope and nuclear techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountainous ecosystems. • Platform/database with global access for continuing work and monitoring of impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems at local and global scales, as well as for communicating findings to policy makers and communities. • Improved understanding of the effects of climate change disseminated through appropriate publications, policy briefs, and through a dedicated internet platform. • Methodologies and protocols for investigations in specific ecosystems and conservation/adaptation measures for agriculture areas

  19. Observed and projected impacts of climate change on marine fisheries, aquaculture, coastal tourism, and human health: an update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren V Weatherdon

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 states that climate change and ocean acidification are altering the oceans at a rate that is unprecedented compared with the recent past, leading to multifaceted impacts on marine ecosystems, associated goods and services, and human societies. AR5 underlined key uncertainties that remain regarding how synergistic changes in the ocean are likely to affect human systems, and how humans are likely to respond to these events. As climate change research has accelerated rapidly following AR5, an updated synthesis of available knowledge is necessary to identify emerging evidence, and to thereby better inform policy discussions. This paper reviews the literature to capture corroborating, conflicting, and novel findings published following the cut-off date for contribution to AR5. Specifically, we highlight key scientific developments on the impacts of climate-induced changes in the ocean on key socioeconomic sectors, including fisheries, aquaculture and tourism. New evidence continues to support a climate-induced redistribution of benefits and losses at multiple scales and across coastal and marine socio-ecological systems, partly resulting from species and ecosystem range shifts and changes in primary productivity. New efforts have been made to characterize and value ecosystem services in the context of climate change, with specific relevance to ecosystem-based adaptation. Recent studies have also explored synergistic interactions between climatic drivers, and have found strong variability between impacts on species at different life stages. Although climate change may improve conditions for some types of freshwater aquaculture, potentially providing alternative opportunities to adapt to impacts on wild capture fisheries, ocean acidification poses a risk to shellfish fisheries and aquaculture. The risk of increased prevalence of disease under warmer temperatures is

  20. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  1. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  2. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  3. A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frieler, K.; Levermann, A.; Elliott, J.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Doell, P.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A. D.; Gellhorn, C.; Gosling, S. N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Neumann, K.; Oki, T.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A. C.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Stacke, T.; Stehfest, E.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Schewe, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008;

  4. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature risk surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1.6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.6 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels.

  5. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

    2015-01-01

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  6. Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nkululeko Simeon Dlamini

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow of the Bernam River Basin in Malaysia are assessed using ten Global Climate Models (GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. A graphical user interface was developed that integrates all of the common procedures of assessing climate change impacts, to generate high resolution climate variables (e.g., rainfall, temperature, etc. at the local scale from large-scale climate models. These are linked in one executable module to generate future climate sequences that can be used as inputs to various models, including hydrological and crop models. The generated outputs were used as inputs to the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes. The evaluation results indicated that the model performed well for the watershed with a monthly R2, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE and Percent Bias (PBIAS values of 0.67, 0.62 and −9.4 and 0.62, 0.61 and −4.2 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The multi-model projections show an increase in future temperature (tmax and tmin in all respective scenarios, up to an average of 2.5 °C for under the worst-case scenario (RC8.5. Rainfall is also predicted to change with clear variations between the dry and wet season. Streamflow projections also followed rainfall pattern to a great extent with a distinct change between the dry and wet season possibly due to the increase in evapotranspiration in the watershed. In principle, the interface can be customized for the application to other watersheds by incorporating GCMs’ baseline data and their corresponding future data for those particular stations in the new watershed. Methodological limitations of the study are also discussed.

  7. Climate Change Impacts at Department of Defense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotamarthi, Rao [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wang, Jiali [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zoebel, Zach [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Wuebbles, Don [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Hayhoe, Katharine [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States); Stein, Michael [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States); Changnon, David [Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL (United States)

    2017-06-16

    This project is aimed at providing the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) with a comprehensive analysis of the uncertainty associated with generating climate projections at the regional scale that can be used by stakeholders and decision makers to quantify and plan for the impacts of future climate change at specific locations. The merits and limitations of commonly used downscaling models, ranging from simple to complex, are compared, and their appropriateness for application at installation scales is evaluated. Downscaled climate projections are generated at selected DoD installations using dynamic and statistical methods with an emphasis on generating probability distributions of climate variables and their associated uncertainties. The sites selection and selection of variables and parameters for downscaling was based on a comprehensive understanding of the current and projected roles that weather and climate play in operating, maintaining, and planning DoD facilities and installations.

  8. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, S.; Raja, I.A.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  9. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantechi, R.; Almeida-Teixeira, M.E.; Maracchi, G.

    1991-01-01

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  10. Climate change impact on streamflow in large-scale river basins: projections and their uncertainties sourced from GCMs and RCP scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasonova, Olga N.; Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

    2018-06-01

    Climate change impact on river runoff was investigated within the framework of the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) using a physically-based land surface model Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants (SWAP) (developed in the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences) and meteorological projections (for 2006-2099) simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) (including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) for each of four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Eleven large-scale river basins were used in this study. First of all, SWAP was calibrated and validated against monthly values of measured river runoff with making use of forcing data from the WATCH data set and all GCMs' projections were bias-corrected to the WATCH. Then, for each basin, 20 projections of possible changes in river runoff during the 21st century were simulated by SWAP. Analysis of the obtained hydrological projections allowed us to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected river runoff is nearly twice larger than the contribution of RCP scenarios. At the same time the contribution of GCMs slightly decreases with time.

  11. Projected impacts to the production of outdoor recreation opportunities across US state park systems due to the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Leung, Yu-Fai; Seekamp, Erin; Walden-Schreiner, Chelsey; Miller, Anna B.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A technical efficiency model identifies where state park systems can be improved. • The technical efficiency model is joined with output of CC policy simulations. • Shifts in operating expenditure under the CC mitigation policy are estimated. • Results reveal substantial variability across states. • Increasing technical efficiency is the best solution to adapt to CC policy impacts. - Abstract: Numerous empirical and simulation-based studies have documented or estimated variable impacts to the economic growth of nation states due to the adoption of domestic climate change mitigation policies. However, few studies have been able to empirically link projected changes in economic growth to the provision of public goods and services. In this research, we couple projected changes in economic growth to US states brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy with a longitudinal panel dataset detailing the production of outdoor recreation opportunities on lands managed in the public interest. Joining empirical data and simulation-based estimates allow us to better understand how the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy would affect the provision of public goods in the future. We first employ a technical efficiency model and metrics to provide decision makers with evidence of specific areas where operational efficiencies within the nation's state park systems can be improved. We then augment the empirical analysis with simulation-based changes in gross state product (GSP) to estimate changes to the states’ ability to provide outdoor recreation opportunities from 2014 to 2020; the results reveal substantial variability across states. Finally, we explore two potential solutions (increasing GSP or increasing technical efficiency) for addressing the negative impacts on the states’ park systems operating budgets brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy; the

  12. Modelling climate change impacts on mycotoxin contamination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fels, van der Ine; Liu, C.; Battilani, P.

    2016-01-01

    Projected climate change effects will influence primary agricultural systems and thus food security, directly via impacts on yields, and indirectly via impacts on its safety, with mycotoxins considered as crucial hazards. Mycotoxins are produced by a wide variety of fungal species, each having their

  13. Integrated Modeling of Crop Growth and Water Resource Management to Project Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Irrigation Water Supply and Demand in African Nations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, A. L.; Boehlert, B.; Reisenauer, M.; Strzepek, K. M.; Solomon, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change poses substantial risks to African agriculture. These risks are exacerbated by concurrent risks to water resources, with water demand for irrigation comprising 80 to 90% of water withdrawals across the continent. Process-based crop growth models are able to estimate both crop demand for irrigation water and crop yields, and are therefore well-suited to analyses of climate change impacts at the food-water nexus. Unfortunately, impact assessments based on these models generally focus on either yields or water demand, rarely both. For this work, we coupled a crop model to a water resource management model in order to predict national trends in the impact of climate change on crop production, irrigation water demand, and the availability of water for irrigation across Africa. The crop model FAO AquaCrop-OS was run at 2ox2o resolution for 17 different climate futures from the CMIP5 archive, nine for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and eight for RCP8.5. Percent changes in annual rainfed and irrigated crop production and temporal shifts in monthly irrigation water demand were estimated for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 for maize, sorghum, rice, wheat, cotton, sugarcane, fruits & vegetables, roots & tubers, and legumes & soybeans. AquaCrop was then coupled to a water management model (WEAP) in order to project changes in the ability of seven major river basins (the Congo, Niger, Nile, Senegal, Upper Orange, Volta, and Zambezi) to meet irrigation water demand out to 2050 in both average and dry years in the face of both climate change and irrigation expansion. Spatial and temporal trends were identified and interpreted through the lens of potential risk management strategies. Uncertainty in model estimates is reported and discussed.

  14. Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ruiz-Ramos

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

  15. The importance of hot drought in providing more useful, and higher confidence, projections of future climatic, hydrologic, and ecosystem impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B. H.

    2017-12-01

    Often cited as a general guide to future climatic change, "the wet get wetter, and the dry get drier" is a misleading way to look towards the future for many regions of the globe, just as the simple use of multi-model ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation change averaged over many years can also be quite misleading for real-world planning and decision-making. Factors that support these assertions are multi-fold. First, we know with high confidence that warming will continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue. Second, continued warming will act to make droughts more frequent, longer and more severe in many regions. Even in the absence of precipitation declines, increases in evaporation and evapotranspiration, among other things, will drive regional drying. It is misleading to suggest to decision-makers that although the future may see an increase in drought risk, a projected increase in mean precipitation will counter-balance the increased drought risk. This counter-balancing will be absent during periods of precipitation-dominated drought. Moreover, projections of precipitation change are usually associated with much less confidence than projections of warming. For example, in places like the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers, or East Africa, many models suggest we should be seeing an increase in precipitation, when in fact we are only seeing significant warming. Moreover, paleoclimatic evidence suggests that state-of-the-art Earth System Models may underestimate the risk of future multi-decadal droughts, even though these droughts have occurred in many regions during the last 2000 years. This reality suggests that even in regions that do see modest increases in mean precipitation, there will likely be periods in the future characterized by decades of below 20th century mean precipitation coupled with unprecedented warmth. Hot drought may be a much more widespread and serious threat than widely recognized.

  16. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

    2012-01-01

    Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...

  17. Opportunities and challenges in assessing climate change impacts on wind energy-a critical comparison of wind speed projections in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, D J; Holloway, T; Nemet, G F

    2011-01-01

    Future climate change is expected to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of surface wind speeds (SWS), with associated impacts on electricity generation from wind energy. However, the predictions for the direction and magnitude of these changes hinge critically on the assessment methods used. Many climate change impact analyses, including those focused on wind energy, use individual climate models and/or statistical downscaling methods rooted in historical observations. Such studies may individually suggest an unrealistically high level of scientific certainty due to the absence of competing projections (over the same region, time period, etc). A new public data archive, the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), allows for a more comprehensive perspective on regional climate change impacts, here applied to three wind farm sites in California. We employ NARCCAP regional climate model data to estimate changes in SWS expected to occur in the mid-21st century at three wind farm regions: Altamont Pass, San Gorgonio Pass, and Tehachapi Pass. We examined trends in SWS magnitude and frequency using three different global/regional model pairs, focused on model evaluation, seasonal cycle, and long-term trends. Our results, while specific to California, highlight the opportunities and limitations in NARCCAP and other publicly available meteorological data sets for energy analysis, and the importance of using multiple models for climate change impact assessment. Although spatial patterns in current wind conditions agree fairly well among models and with NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) data, results vary widely at our three sites of interest. This poor performance and model disagreement may be explained by complex topography, limited model resolution, and differences in model physics. Spatial trends and site-specific estimates of annual average changes (1980-2000 versus 2051-71) also differed widely across models. All models

  18. Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, Keith; Hermanson, Leon; Liu, Chunlei; Putt, Debbie; Sutton, Rowan; Iwi, Alan; Smith, Doug

    2009-03-13

    Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

  19. Projected impact of climate change in the hydroclimatology of Senegal with a focus over the Lake of Guiers for the twenty-first century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tall, Moustapha; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Diallo, Ismaïla; Pal, Jeremy S.; Faye, Aïssatou; Mbaye, Mamadou Lamine; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

    2017-07-01

    This study analyzes the impact of anthropogenic climate change in the hydroclimatology of Senegal with a focus over the lake of Guiers basin for the middle (2041-2060) and late twenty-first century (2080-2099). To this end, high-resolution multimodel ensemble based on regional climate model experiments considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is used. The results indicate that an elevated warming, leading to substantial increase of atmospheric water demand, is projected over the whole of Senegal. In the Lake basin, these increases in potential evapotranspiration (PE) range between 10 and 25 % in the near future and for RCP4.5 while for the far future and RCP8.5, they exceed 50 %. In addition, mean precipitation unveils contrasting changes with wetter (10 to 25 % more) conditions by the middle of the century and drier conditions (more than 50 %) during the late twenty-first century. Such changes cause more/less evapotranspiration and soil moisture respectively during the two future periods. Furthermore, surface runoff shows a tendency to increase in most areas amid few locations including the Lake basin with substantial reduction. Finally, it is found that while semi-arid climates develop in the RCP4.5 scenario, generalized arid conditions prevail over the whole Senegal for RCP8.5. It is thus evident that these future climate conditions substantially threaten freshwater availability for the country and irrigated cropping over the Lake basin. Therefore, strong governmental politics are needed to help design response options to cope with the challenges posed by the projected climate change for the country.

  20. Projected impacts of climate change on hydrology, water resource use and adaptation needs for the Chu and Talas cross-border rivers basin, Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamil Iliasov, Shamil; Dolgikh, Svetlana; Lipponen, Annukka; Novikov, Viktor

    2014-05-01

    The observed long-term trends, variability and projections of future climate and hydrology of the Chu and Talas transboundary rivers basin were analysed using a common approach for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan parts of the basin. Historical, current and forecasted demands and main uses of water in the basin were elaborated by the joint effort of both countries. Such cooperative approach combining scientific data, water practitioners' outlook with decision making needs allowed the first time to produce a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in the Chu-Talas transboundary rivers basin, identify future needs and develop the initial set of adaptation measures and recommendations. This work was carried out under the project "Promoting Cooperation to Adapt to Climate Change in the Chu and Talas Transboundary Basin", supported by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Climate change projections, including air temperatures and rainfall in the 21st century were determined with a spatial resolution 0.5 degrees based on the integration of 15 climate change model outputs (derived from IPCC's 4th Assessment Report, and partially 5th Assessment Report) combined with locally-designed hydrology and glacier models. A significant increase in surface air temperatures by 3-6°C may be expected in the basin area, especially in summer and autumn. This change is likely to be accompanied by rainfall increase during the cold season and a decrease in the warm half of the year. As a result, a deterioration of moisture conditions during the summer-autumn period is possible. Furthermore, milder winters and hotter summers can be expected. Mountains will likely receive more liquid precipitation, than snow, while the area and volume of glaciers may significantly reduce. Projected changes in climate and glaciers have implications for river hydrology and different sectors of the economy dependent

  1. Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krysanova, Valentina; Vetter, Tobias; Eisner, Stephanie; Huang, Shaochun; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Strauch, Michael; Gelfan, Alexander; Kumar, Rohini; Aich, Valentin; Arheimer, Berit; Chamorro, Alejandro; van Griensven, Ann; Kundu, Dipangkar; Lobanova, Anastasia; Mishra, Vimal; Plötner, Stefan; Reinhardt, Julia; Seidou, Ousmane; Wang, Xiaoyan; Wortmann, Michel; Zeng, Xiaofan; Hattermann, Fred F.

    2017-10-01

    An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources of uncertainty were quantified in the framework of the ISIMIP project. The models ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 were applied in the following basins: Rhine and Tagus in Europe, Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, Upper Mississippi, MacKenzie and Upper Amazon in America, and Darling in Australia. The model calibration and validation was done using WATCH climate data for the period 1971-2000. The results, evaluated with 14 criteria, are mostly satisfactory, except for the low flow. Climate change impacts were analyzed using projections from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways. Trends in the period 2070-2099 in relation to the reference period 1975-2004 were evaluated for three variables: the long-term mean annual flow and high and low flow percentiles Q 10 and Q 90, as well as for flows in three months high- and low-flow periods denoted as HF and LF. For three river basins: the Lena, MacKenzie and Tagus strong trends in all five variables were found (except for Q 10 in the MacKenzie); trends with moderate certainty for three to five variables were confirmed for the Rhine, Ganges and Upper Mississippi; and increases in HF and LF were found for the Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The analysis of projected streamflow seasonality demonstrated increasing streamflow volumes during the high-flow period in four basins influenced by monsoonal precipitation (Ganges, Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow), an amplification of the snowmelt flood peaks in the Lena and MacKenzie, and a substantial decrease of discharge in the Tagus (all months). The overall average fractions of uncertainty for the annual mean flow projections in the multi-model ensemble applied for all basins

  2. An integrated multi-parameter monitoring approach for the quantification and mitigation of the climate change impact on the coasts of Eastern Crete, S. Aegean Sea (Project AKTAIA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghionis, George; Alexandrakis, George; Karditsa, Aikaterini; Sifnioti, Dafni; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Andreadis, Olympos; Petrakis, Stelios; Poulos, Serafim; Velegrakis, Adonis; Kampanis, Nikolaos; Lipakis, Michalis

    2014-05-01

    The AKTAIA project aims at the production of new knowledge regarding the forms of manifestation of the climate change and its influence on the stability and evolution of the coastal landforms along the shoreline of eastern Crete (approximate length: 757 km), taking into account the various aspects of human intervention. Aerial photographs, satellite images and orthophotomaps have been used to produce a detailed coastline map and to study the morphological characteristics of the coastal zone of Eastern Crete. More than 100 beach zones have been visited during three field campaigns, which included geomorphological and human intervention mapping, topographic, meteorological and oceanographic measurements and sedimentological sampling and observations. In addition, two pilot sites (one in the north and one in the south part of Crete) are being monitored, via the installation of coastal video monitoring systems, shore-based meteorological stations and wave-tide recorders installed in the nearshore zone. Detailed seafloor mapping with the use of side scan sonar and scuba diving and bathymetric surveys were conducted in the two pilot sites. Meteorological and oceanographic data from all existing land-based meteorological stations, oceanographic buoys and the ERA-interim dataset are used to determine the wind and wave climate of each beach. The collected climatic, sedimentological and coastal environmental data are being integrated in a GIS database that will be used to forecast the climatic trends in the area of Crete for the next decades and to model the impact of the climatic change on the future evolution of the coastal zone. New methodologies for the continuous monitoring of land-sea interaction and for the quantification of the loss of sensitive coastal zones due to sea-level rise and a modified Coastal Vulnerability Index for a comparative evaluation of the vulnerability of the coasts are being developed. Numerical modelling of the nearshore hydrodynamics and the

  3. Climate Change Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation in the ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation in the Lowland and Wetland Areas of Delta State, Nigeria. Project Abstract. Climate change has huge implications for Nigeria and for the rest of the world. This project will enhance knowledge of the key drivers of climate change by creating the Niger Delta regional ...

  4. Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.E. Schindler; X. Augerot; E. Fleishman; N.J. Mantua; B. Riddell; M. Ruckelshaus; J. Seeb; M. Webster

    2008-01-01

    As climate change intensifies, there is increasing interest in developing models that reduce uncertainties in projections of global climate and refine these projections to finer spatial scales. Forecasts of climate impacts on ecosystems are far more challenging and their uncertainties even larger because of a limited understanding of physical controls on biological...

  5. Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model®

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaglom, Wendy S.; McFarland, James R.; Colley, Michelle F.; Mack, Charlotte B.; Venkatesh, Boddu; Miller, Rawlings L.; Haydel, Juanita; Schultz, Peter A.; Perkins, Bill; Casola, Joseph H.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Cross, Paul; Kolian, Michael J.; Kayin, Serpil

    2014-01-01

    This study analyzes the potential impacts of changes in temperature due to climate change on the U.S. power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes due to temperature changes under two emissions trajectories—with and without emissions mitigation. It estimates the impact of temperature change on heating and cooling degree days, electricity demand, and generating unit output and efficiency. These effects are then integrated into a dispatch and capacity planning model to estimate impacts on investment decisions, emissions, system costs, and power prices for 32 U.S. regions. Without mitigation actions, total annual electricity production costs in 2050 are projected to increase 14% ($51 billion) because of greater cooling demand as compared to a control scenario without future temperature changes. For a scenario with global emissions mitigation, including a reduction in U.S. power sector emissions of 36% below 2005 levels in 2050, the increase in total annual electricity production costs is approximately the same as the increase in system costs to satisfy the increased demand associated with unmitigated rising temperatures. - Highlights: • We model the impact of rising temperatures on the U.S. power sector. • We examine temperature and mitigation impacts on demand, supply, and investment. • Higher temperatures increase power system costs by about $50 billion by the year 2050. • Meeting demand from higher temperatures costs slightly more than reducing emissions. • Mitigation policy cost analyses should account for temperature impacts

  6. Tools for assessing climate impacts on fish and wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chad B. Wilsey; Joshua J. Lawler; Edwin P. Maurer; Donald McKenzie; Patricia A. Townsend; Richard Gwozdz; James A. Freund; Keala Hagmann; Karen M. Hutten

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we...

  7. Social and economic impacts of climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

    2016-09-09

    For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  8. Improving modelled impacts on the flowering of temperate fruit trees in the Iberian Peninsula of climate change projections for 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Pérez-Lopez, David; Sánchez-Sánchez, Enrique; Centeno, Ana; Dosio, Alessandro; Lopez-de-la-Franca, Noelia

    2013-04-01

    Flowering of temperate trees needs winter chilling, being the specific requirements dependent on the variety. This work studied the trend and changes of values of chilling hours for some representative agricultural locations in Spain for the last three decades and their projected changes under climate change scenarios. According to our previous results (Pérez-López et al., 2012), areas traditionally producing fruit as the Ebro (NE of Spain) or Guadalquivir (SO) valleys, Murcia (SE) and Extremadura (SO) could have a major cold reduction of chill-hours. This would drive a change of varieties or species and may enhance the use of chemicals to complete the needs of chill hours for flowering. However, these results showed high uncertainty, partly due to the bias of the climate data used, generated by Regional Climate Models. The chilling hours were calculated with different methods according to the species considered: North Carolina method (Shaltout and Unrath, 1983) was used for apples, Utah method (Richardson et al. 1974) for peach and grapevine and the approach used by De Melo-Abreu et al. (2004) for olive trees. The climate data used as inputs were the results of numerical simulations obtained from a group of regional climate models at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/) first bias corrected for temperatures and precipitation (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012). This work aims to improve the impact projections obtained in Pérez-López et al. (2012). For this purpose, variation of chill-hours between 2nd half of 20th century and 1st half of 21st century at the study locations were recalculated considering 1) a feedback in the dates in which the chilling hours are calculated, to take into account the shift of phenological dates, and 2) substituting the original ENSEMBLES data set of climate used in Pérez-López et al. (2012) by the bias corrected data set. Calculations for the 2nd half of 20th

  9. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Casajus

    Full Text Available An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

  10. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

    2016-01-01

    An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

  11. Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanzer, Florian; Förster, Kristian; Nemec, Johanna; Strasser, Ulrich

    2018-03-01

    A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this - to date - the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862-3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11-165 km2) and glacierization (24-77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0-20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25-80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4-20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011-2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997-2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071-2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

  12. Assessment of Projected Temperature Impacts from Climate Change on the U.S. Electric Power Sector Using the Integrated Planning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The energy sector is considered to be one of the most vulnerable to climate change. This study is a first-order analysis of the potential climate change impacts on the U.S. electric power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes du...

  13. The Social Impact of Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    Managing climate change requires that we understand the social value of climate-related decisions. Rational decision-making demands that we weigh the potential benefits of climate-related investments against their costs. To date, it has been challenging to quantify the relative social benefit of living under different climatic conditions, so policy debates tend to focus on investment costs without considering their benefits. Here I will discuss challenges and advances in the measurement of climate's impact on society. By linking data and methods across physical and social sciences, we are beginning to understand when, where, and how climatic conditions have a causal impact on human wellbeing. I will present examples from this burgeoning interdisciplinary field that quantify the effect of temperature on macroeconomic performance, the effects of climate on human conflict, and the long-term health and economic impact of tropical cyclones. Each of these examples provide new insight into previously unknown benefits of various climate management strategies. I conclude by describing new efforts to systematically gather and compare findings from across the research community to support informed and rational climate management decisions.

  14. Climate change: wildfire impact

    OpenAIRE

    Dautbasic, Mirza; Crabtree, J.; Ioras, Florin; Abrudan, Ioan Vasile; Ratnasingam, Jega

    2011-01-01

    Every ecosystem is a complex organization of carefully mixed life forms; a dynamic and particularly sensible system. Consequently, their progressive decline may accelerate climate change and vice versa, influencing flora and fauna composition and distribution, resulting in the loss of biodiversity. Climate changes effects are the principal topics of this volume. Written by internationally renowned contributors, Biodiversity loss in a changing planet offers attractive study cases focused on bi...

  15. The CSAICLAWPS project: a multi-scalar, multi-data source approach to providing climate services for both modelling of climate change impacts on crop yields and development of community-level adaptive capacity for sustainable food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, N. D.; Fowler, H. J.

    2017-12-01

    The "Climate-smart agriculture implementation through community-focused pursuit of land and water productivity in South Asia" (CSAICLAWPS) project is a research initiative funded by the (UK) Royal Society through its Challenge Grants programme which is part of the broader UK Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF). CSAICLAWPS has three objectives: a) development of "added-value" - bias assessed, statistically down-scaled - climate projections for selected case study sites across South Asia; b) investigation of crop failure modes under both present (observed) and future (projected) conditions; and c) facilitation of developing local adaptive capacity and resilience through stakeholder engagement. At AGU we will be presenting both next steps and progress to date toward these three objectives: [A] We have carried out bias assessments of a substantial multi-model RCM ensemble (MME) from the CORDEX South Asia (CORDEXdomain for case studies in three countries - Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka - and (stochastically) produced synthetic time-series for these sites from local observations using a Python-based implementation of the principles underlying the Climate Research Unit Weather Generator (CRU-WG) in order to enable probabilistic simulation of current crop yields. [B] We have characterised present response of local crop yields to climate variability in key case study sites using AquaCrop simulations parameterised based on input (agronomic practices, soil conditions, etc) from smallholder farmers. [C] We have implemented community-based hydro-climatological monitoring in several case study "revenue villages" (panchayats) in the Nainital District of Uttarakhand. The purpose of this is not only to increase availability of meteorological data, but also has the aspiration of, over time, leading to enhanced quantitative awareness of present climate variability and potential future conditions (as projected by RCMs). Next steps in our work will include: 1) future crop yield

  16. Statistically downscaled climate projections to support evaluating climate change risks for hydropower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brekke, L.

    2008-01-01

    This paper described a web-served public access archive of down-scaled climate projections developed as a tool for water managers of river and hydropower systems. The archive provided access to climate projection data at basin-relevant resolution and included an extensive compilation of down-scale climate projects designed to support risk-based adaptation planning. Downscaled translations of 112 contemporary climate projections produced using the World Climate Research Program's coupled model intercomparison project were also included. Datasets for the coupled model included temperature and precipitation, monthly time-steps, and geographic coverage for the United States and portions of Mexico and Canada. It was concluded that the archive will be used to develop risk-based studies on shifts in seasonal patterns, changes in mean annual runoff, and associated responses in water resources and hydroelectric power management. Case studies demonstrating reclamation applications of archive content and potential applications for hydroelectric power production impacts were included. tabs., figs

  17. Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Potential evapotranspiration (PET is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from 12 equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman–Monteith equations reproduces best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the 12 PET equations from HadRM3-Q0. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen–Haise and calibrated Blaney–Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley–Taylor, Makkink, and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as, when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data, this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within

  18. Projecting the potential evapotranspiration by coupling different formulations and input data reliabilities: The possible uncertainty source for climate change impacts on hydrological regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weiguang; Li, Changni; Xing, Wanqiu; Fu, Jianyu

    2017-12-01

    Representing atmospheric evaporating capability for a hypothetical reference surface, potential evapotranspiration (PET) determines the upper limit of actual evapotranspiration and is an important input to hydrological models. Due that present climate models do not give direct estimates of PET when simulating the hydrological response to future climate change, the PET must be estimated first and is subject to the uncertainty on account of many existing formulae and different input data reliabilities. Using four different PET estimation approaches, i.e., the more physically Penman (PN) equation with less reliable input variables, more empirical radiation-based Priestley-Taylor (PT) equation with relatively dependable downscaled data, the most simply temperature-based Hamon (HM) equation with the most reliable downscaled variable, and downscaling PET directly by the statistical downscaling model, this paper investigated the differences of runoff projection caused by the alternative PET methods by a well calibrated abcd monthly hydrological model. Three catchments, i.e., the Luanhe River Basin, the Source Region of the Yellow River and the Ganjiang River Basin, representing a large climatic diversity were chosen as examples to illustrate this issue. The results indicated that although similar monthly patterns of PET over the period 2021-2050 for each catchment were provided by the four methods, the magnitudes of PET were still slightly different, especially for spring and summer months in the Luanhe River Basin and the Source Region of the Yellow River with relatively dry climate feature. The apparent discrepancy in magnitude of change in future runoff and even the diverse change direction for summer months in the Luanhe River Basin and spring months in the Source Region of the Yellow River indicated that the PET method related uncertainty occurred, especially in the Luanhe River Basin and the Source Region of the Yellow River with smaller aridity index. Moreover, the

  19. Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part I: Projected emissions, simulation design, and model evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

    2018-07-01

    Emissions from the transportation sector are rapidly changing worldwide; however, the interplay of such emission changes in the face of climate change are not as well understood. This two-part study examines the impact of projected emissions from the U.S. transportation sector (Part I) on ambient air quality in the face of climate change (Part II). In Part I of this study, we describe the methodology and results of a novel Technology Driver Model (see graphical abstract) that includes 1) transportation emission projections (including on-road vehicles, non-road engines, aircraft, rail, and ship) derived from a dynamic technology model that accounts for various technology and policy options under an IPCC emission scenario, and 2) the configuration/evaluation of a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. By 2046-2050, the annual domain-average transportation emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) are projected to decrease over the continental U.S. The decreases in gaseous emissions are mainly due to reduced emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines, which exhibit spatial and seasonal variations across the U.S. Although particulate matter (PM) emissions widely decrease, some areas in the U.S. experience relatively large increases due to increases in ship emissions. The on-road vehicle emissions dominate the emission changes for CO, NO x , VOC, and NH 3 , while emissions from both the on-road and non-road modes have strong contributions to PM and SO 2 emission changes. The evaluation of the baseline 2005 WRF simulation indicates that annual biases are close to or within the acceptable criteria for meteorological performance in the literature, and there is an overall good agreement in the 2005 CMAQ simulations of chemical variables against both surface and satellite observations. Copyright © 2018

  20. Projected climate change futures for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tadross, M

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa. In these experiments, a variable-resolution atmospheric global circulation model, CCAM, was applied as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate both present-day and future climate... climate projection Observed climate RCM Climate forcing Climate simulation Statistical downscaling Dynamical downscaling 22 | Second Edition There are four pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. RCP 2.6 describes a scenario of very low...

  1. Projected US timber and primary forest product market impacts of climate change mitigation through timber set-asides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

    2013-01-01

    Whereas climate change mitigation involving payments to forest landowners for accumulating carbon on their land may increase carbon stored in forests, it will also affect timber supply and prices. This study estimated the effect on US timber and primary forest product markets of hypothetical timber set-aside scenarios where US forest landowners would be paid to forego...

  2. Impacts of projected climate change on productivity and nitrogen leaching of crop rotations in arable and pig farming systems in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doltra, Jordi; Lægdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2014-01-01

    The effects of projected changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration on productivity and nitrogen (N) leaching of characteristic arable and pig farming rotations in Denmark were investigated with the FASSET simulation model. The LARS weather generator was used to provide climatic data...... for the baseline period (1961–90) and in combination with two regional circulation models (RCM) to generate climatic data under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario for four different 20-year time slices (denoted by midpoints 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2080) for two locations...

  3. Projected future runoff of the Breede River under climate change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Breede River is the largest river in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, and as such, is a key resource for a variety of activities within the region. It is this significance of the river that prompted a study into the impact of climate change on future runoff in the river and hence, the potential impacts a projected change ...

  4. One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of

  5. Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria simulated using a physically based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Hanzer

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this – to date – the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l. as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–165 km2 and glacierization (24–77 %. Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l. until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006 ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040 with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006 of up to 11 % (total and 13 % (summer depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total and 47 % (summer towards the end of the century (2071–2100, accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

  6. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

    2008-01-01

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  7. Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.

  8. Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.

    2015-01-01

    Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and

  9. Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K.

    2006-01-01

    The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat

  10. Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K. [Climate Risk Pty Limited, Fairlight (Australia)

    2006-07-01

    The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat.

  11. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Climate change impacts in Zhuoshui watershed, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yi-Chiung; Liu, Pei-Ling; Cheng, Chao-Tzuen; Li, Hsin-Chi; Wu, Tingyeh; Chen, Wei-Bo; Shih, Hung-Ju

    2017-04-01

    There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualty and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily. One of the aims for Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) is to demonstrate the linkage between climate change data and watershed impact models. The purpose is to understand relative disasters induced by extreme rainfall (typhoons) under climate change in watersheds including landslides, debris flows, channel erosion and deposition, floods, and economic loss. The study applied dynamic downscaling approach to release climate change projected typhoon events under RCP 8.5, the worst-case scenario. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) and FLO-2D models, then, were used to simulate hillslope disaster impacts in the upstream of Zhuoshui River. CCHE1D model was used to elevate the sediment erosion or deposition in channel. FVCOM model was used to asses a flood impact in urban area in the downstream. Finally, whole potential loss associate with these typhoon events was evaluated by the Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System (TLAS) under climate change scenario. Results showed that the total loss will increase roughly by NT 49.7 billion (1.6 billion USD) in future in Zhuoshui watershed in Taiwan. The results of this research could help to understand future impact; however model bias still exists. Because typhoon track is a critical factor to consider regional

  13. An Agenda for Climate Impacts Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaye, J. A.

    2009-12-01

    The report Global Change Impacts in the United States released by the US Global Change Research Program in June 2009 identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. In this section of the report, the focus is on those areas of climate science that could contribute most towards advancing our knowledge of climate change impacts and those aspects of climate change responsible for these impacts in order to continue to guide decision making. The Report identifies the six most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. 2. Refine ability to project climate change, including extreme events, at local scales. While climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. This includes advances in modeling capability and observations needed to address local scales and high-impact extreme events. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. Significant potential exists in the US to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society, which requires defining needed information, gathering it, expanding capacity to deliver it, and improving tools by which decision makers use it to best advantage. 4. Improve understanding of thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in climate or ecosystems. Potential areas of research include thresholds that could

  14. Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections Analyzed with Climate Signal Maps: Seasonal and Extreme Precipitation for Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Pfeifer

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate signal maps can be used to identify regions where robust climate changes can be derived from an ensemble of climate change simulations. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Climate signal maps do not show all information available from the model ensemble, but give a condensed view in order to be useful for non-climate scientists who have to assess climate change impact during the course of their work. Three different ensembles of regional climate projections have been analyzed regarding changes of seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (defined as the number of days exceeding the 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation for Germany, using climate signal maps. Although the models used and the scenario assumptions differ for the three ensembles (representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5 vs. RCP8.5 vs. A1B, some similarities in the projections of future seasonal and extreme precipitation can be seen. For the winter season, both mean and extreme precipitation are projected to increase. The strength, robustness and regional pattern of this increase, however, depends on the ensemble. For summer, a robust decrease of mean precipitation can be detected only for small regions in southwestern Germany and only from two of the three ensembles, whereas none of them projects a robust increase of summer extreme precipitation.

  15. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  16. US Climate Variability and Predictability Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patterson, Mike [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2017-11-14

    The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year support of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.

  17. Impact of Climate Change on Drylands. Climate variability, livelihood strategies and policy options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verhagen, A. [Plant Research International, Wageningen (Netherlands); Dietz, A.J. [Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies AGIDS, University of Amsterdam UvA, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2001-09-01

    The findings of the Impact of Climate Change on Drylands (ICCD) project were discussed during a workshop held on 26 and 27 April 2001. The aims of the workshop were to disseminate the findings of the ICCD project, create awareness of the possible effects of climate change and contribute to the dialogue on climate change research in West Africa. Both the workshop and the project were financed by the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP), Centre Technique de Cooperation de Agricole et Rurale (CTA), Wageningen University (INREF), and Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies (AGIDS)

  18. Climate Impacts of Cover Crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Bonan, G. B.; Morris, C. K.; Grandy, S.

    2016-12-01

    Cover crops are planted in agricultural rotation with the intention of protecting soil rather than harvest. Cover crops have numerous environmental benefits that include preventing soil erosion, increasing soil fertility, and providing weed and pest control- among others. In addition to localized environmental benefits, cover crops can have important regional or global biogeochemical impacts by increasing soil organic carbon, changing emissions of greenhouse trace gases like nitrous oxide and methane, and reducing hydrologic nitrogen losses. Cover crops may additionally affect climate by changing biogeophysical processes, like albedo and latent heat flux, though these potential changes have not yet been evaluated. Here we use the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) - Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to test how planting cover crops in the United States may change biogeophysical fluxes and climate. We present seasonal changes in albedo, heat fluxes, evaporative partitioning, radiation, and the resulting changes in temperature. Preliminary analyses show that during seasons when cover crops are planted, latent heat flux increases and albedo decreases, changing the evaporative fraction and surface temperatures. Understanding both the biogeophysical changes caused by planting cover crops in this study and the biogeochemical changes found in other studies will give a clearer picture of the overall impacts of cover crops on climate and atmospheric chemistry, informing how this land use strategy will impact climate in the future.

  19. Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, Marianne Sloth; Langen, Peter L.; Boberg, Fredrik; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

    2017-11-01

    Multimodel ensembles are widely analyzed to estimate the range of future regional climate change projections. For an ensemble of climate models, the result is often portrayed by showing maps of the geographical distribution of the multimodel mean results and associated uncertainties represented by model spread at the grid point scale. Here we use a set of CMIP5 models to show that presenting statistics this way results in an overestimation of the projected range leading to physically implausible patterns of change on global but also on regional scales. We point out that similar inconsistencies occur in impact analyses relying on multimodel information extracted using statistics at the regional scale, for example, when a subset of CMIP models is selected to represent regional model spread. Consequently, the risk of unwanted impacts may be overestimated at larger scales as climate change impacts will never be realized as the worst (or best) case everywhere.

  20. Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections

  1. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Melanie

    2007-01-01

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  2. Climate change impacts health in Tunisia | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2012-03-26

    Mar 26, 2012 ... Research is showing that climate change is having major impacts on human health. Weather-related disasters are on the rise and water- and vector-borne diseases are spreading. Strategies to adapt to the effects of climate change may also pose unforeseen health risks. Read more about a project in ...

  3. How Useful Are Climate Projections for Adaptation Decision Making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. B.; Vogel, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Decision making is often portrayed as a linear process that assumes scientific knowledge is a necessary precursor to effective policy and is used directly in policy making. Yet, in practice, the use of scientific information in decision making is more complex than the linear model implies. The use of climate projections in adaptation decision making is a case in point. This paper briefly reviews efforts by some decision makers to understand climate change risks and to apply this knowledge when making decisions on management of climate sensitive resources and infrastructure . In general, and in spite of extensive efforts to study climate change at the regional and local scale to support decision making, few decisions outside of adapting to sea level rise appear to directly apply to climate change projections. A number of U.S. municipalities and states, including Seattle, New York City, Phoenix, and the States of California and Washington, have used climate change projections to assess their vulnerability to various climate change impacts. Some adaptation decisions have been made based on projections of sea level rise, such as change in location of infrastructure. This may be because a future rise is sea level is virtually certain. In contrast, decision making on precipitation has been more limited, even where there is consensus on likely changes in sign of the variable. Nonetheless, decision makers are adopting strategies that can be justified based on current climate and climate variability and that also reduce risks to climate change. A key question for the scientific community is whether improved projections will add value to decision making. For example, it remains unclear how higher-resolution projections can change decision making as long as the sign and magnitude of projections across climate models and downscaling techniques retains a wide range of uncertainty. It is also unclear whether even better information on the sign and magnitude of change would

  4. Future health impact assessment of air pollution at the global, European and Ile-de-France scales: the Air Pollution Climate Health Impact Assessment (A-C HIA) project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Likhvar, Victoria; Hauglustaine, Didier; Kinney, Patrick; Colette, Augustin; Valari, Myrto; Markakis, Konstandinos; Pascal, Mathilde; Medina, Sylvia

    2016-01-01

    Ozone and fine particles are current risk factors for premature death all over the globe. In coming decades, substantial improvements in public health may be achieved by reducing air pollution. The overall objective of the A-C HIA project (2011-2014) was to apply state of the art climate, air quality, and health modelling tools to assess future health impacts of O 3 and PM2.5 under different scenarios of emissions for the period 2030-2050. A-C HIA created an interdisciplinary team to study the impacts of climate change on health through air quality changes, and to establish longer-term collaborations between communities. This question has been explored at three spatial scales: global, regional (Europe), and urban (ile-de-France). We f ind that 1.5 millions of cardio-vascular deaths could be delayed each year in 2030 compared to 2010. In Europe, air-pollution-related mortality should decrease in 2030 compared to 2010. At the finer scale (ile-de-France) we found that the respiratory mortality should increase over the highly populated area of Paris. In the coming years, substantial benefits to public health could be achieved through coordinated strategies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and improving air quality. (authors)

  5. Modeling the eco-hydrologic response of a Mediterranean type ecosystem to the combined impacts of projected climate change and altered fire frequencies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tague, Christina; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Hope, Allen

    2009-01-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) project moderate warming along with increases in atmospheric CO2 for California Mediterranean type ecosystems (MTEs). In water-limited ecosystems, vegetation acts as an important control on streamflow and responds to soil moisture availability. Fires are also key...... disturbances in semiarid environments, and few studies have explored the potential interactions among changes in climate, vegetation dynamics, hydrology, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and fire. We model ecosystem productivity, evapotranspiration, and summer streamflow under a range of temperature...... climate scenarios, biomass in chaparral-dominated systems is likely to increase, leading to reductions in summer streamflow. However, within the range of GCM predictions, there are some scenarios in which vegetation may decrease, leading to higher summer streamflows. Changes due to increases in fire...

  6. Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

  7. Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Froelicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat [University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland)

    2010-12-15

    The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO{sub 2} agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO{sub 2} given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions. (orig.)

  8. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephanie K. Moore; Vera L. Trainer; Nathan J. Mantua; Micaela S. Parker; Edward A. Laws; Lorraine C. Backer; Lora E. Fleming

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes...

  9. Climate geopolitics. Negotiations, strategies, impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gemenne, Francois

    2015-01-01

    As countries are not equal in front of the climate change issue (some contribute more than the others, some will be more heavily impacted, some are more dependent on fossil energies, some could be affected by population movements related to the degradation of their environment), and as countries are to adopt measures for a more sustainable development while facing huge geopolitical challenges which affect international negotiations, this book aims at describing and analysing these issues which illustrate serious imbalances between countries. These issues relate to the development of energy policies, to geographical and demographic constraints. The author describes how the climate has become an international political issue, and a field of complex interactions with international relationships. After having recalled the origins of greenhouse gas emissions and their main expected impacts, he analyses the various responsibilities, describes these different impacts, outlines how global warming is basically unfair: the less responsible countries will be more impacted than the responsible ones. He also discusses mechanisms of international cooperation which have been implemented to address this issue: adaptation and mitigation policies, associated negotiations. He notices that the strongest mitigation efforts are, the least necessary adaptation efforts will be. He discusses the issue of financing and necessary financial and technological transfers to help southern countries in reducing their emissions without compromising their development. He highlights the current status of negotiations, their organisation, the present actors and forces, and their main point of tension

  10. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  11. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Hydro-Climate in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the coastal region in the south of Peninsular Malaysia in the 21st century was assessed by means of a regional climate model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution Global Climate Models' future projections covering four emission scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. The analyses were made in terms of rainfall, air temperature, evapotranporation, and soil water storage.

  12. Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Deryng, Delphine

    2014-01-01

    As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

  13. Storylines of socio-economic and climatic drivers for land use and their hydrological impacts in alpine catchments - the STELLA project example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Formayer, Herbert; Förster, Kristian; Marke, Thomas; Meißl, Gertraud; Schermer, Markus; Stotten, Friederike; Themessl, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    Future land use in Alpine catchments is controlled by the evolution of socio-economy and climate. Estimates of their coupled development should hence fulfill the principles of plausibility (be convincing) and consistency (be unambiguous). In the project STELLA, coupled future climate and land use scenarios are used as input in a hydrological modelling exercise with the physically-based, distributed water balance model WaSiM. The aim of the project is to quantify the effects of these two framing components on the future water cycle. The test site for the simulations is the catchment of the Brixentaler Ache in Tyrol/Austria (47.5°N, 322 km2). The so-called „storylines" of future coupled climate and forest/land use management, policy, social cooperation, tourism and economy have jointly been developed in an inter- and transdisciplinary assessment with local actors. The climate background is given by simulations for the A1B (temperature conditions like today in Merano/Italy, 46.7°N) and RCP 8.5 (temperature conditions like today in Bologna/Italy, 44.5°N) emission scenarios. These two climate scenarios were combined with three potential socio-economic developments („local"/„glocal"/ „superglobal"), each in a positive and in a negative specification. From these twelve storylines of coupled climate/land use future, a set of four storylines was selected to be used in transient hydrological modelling experiments. Historical simulations of the water balance for the test site reveal the pattern of land use being the most prominent factor for the spatial distribution of its components. A new prototype for a snow-canopy interaction simulation module provides explicit rates of intercepted and sublimated snow from the trees and stems of the different forest stands in the catchment. This new canopy module will be used to model the coupled climate/land use future storylines for the Brixental. The aim is to quantify the effects of climate change and land use on the water

  14. Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, Michael R.

    1991-01-01

    Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

  15. Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Baylis, Patrick; Hausman, Catherine H

    2017-02-21

    It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond [Rose S, et al. (2014) Understanding the Social Cost of Carbon: A Technical Assessment ]. The empirical literature has shown significant increases in climate-driven impacts on overall consumption, yet has not focused on the cost implications of the increased intensity and frequency of extreme events driving peak demand, which is the highest load observed in a period. We use comprehensive, high-frequency data at the level of load balancing authorities to parameterize the relationship between average or peak electricity demand and temperature for a major economy. Using statistical models, we analyze multiyear data from 166 load balancing authorities in the United States. We couple the estimated temperature response functions for total daily consumption and daily peak load with 18 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climate change-driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and heterogeneous changes in consumption, with an average increase of 2.8% by end of century. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant increases in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States, assuming today's technology and electricity market fundamentals. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating capacity, suggesting additional peak capacity costs of up to 180 billion dollars by the end of the century under business-as-usual.

  16. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  17. Land use compounds habitat losses under projected climate change in a threatened California ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin Coulter Riordan

    Full Text Available Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21(st century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS, a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast. Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change

  18. The use of EuroCordex in marine climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew; Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom

    2017-04-01

    The Northwest European Shelf seas (NWS, including the North Sea, Irish Sea and Celtic Sea) are of economic, environmental and cultural importance to a number of European countries. However, their representation by global climate models (GCMs) is very crude, due to their inability to represent the complex geometry and the absence of tides. Therefore, there is a need to employ dynamical downscaling methods when considering the potential impacts of climate change on the European (and other) shelf seas. Using a shelf seas model to dynamically downscale of the ocean component of the GCM is a well established method. While taking open ocean lateral boundary conditions from the GCM ocean is acceptable, using surface flux forcings from the GCM atmosphere is often problematic. The CORDEX project provides an important dataset of high spatial and temporal resolution atmospheric forcings, derived from 'parent' CMIP5 GCM simulations. We drive the NEMO shelf seas model with data from CMIP5 models and EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) data to produce a set of NWS climate projections. We require relatively high temporal resolution output, and run-off (for the river forcings), and so are limited to a subset of the available EURO-CORDEX RCMs. From these we select two CMIP5 GCMs with the same RCM with two emissions scenarios to give a minimum estimate of GCM model structural and emission scenario uncertainty. Other experiments allow an initial estimate of the uncertainty associated with the model structure of both the shelf seas and the RCM. Our analysis is focused on the uncertainty associated with the mean change in a number of physical marine impacts and the drivers of coastal variability and change, including sea level and the propagation of open ocean signals onto the shelf. Our work is part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) and will inform the following UK Climate Change Risk Assessments, required as part of the Climate Change Act.

  19. Australian climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennessy, K.; Fitzharris, B.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability made the following conclusions about Australia (Hennessy et al., 2007): Regional climate change has occurred. Since 1950, there has been 0.7 0 C warming, with more heat waves, fewer frosts, more rain in north-west Australia, less rain in southern and eastern Australia, an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts and a rise in sea level of about 70 mm. Australia is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change. These are now evident in increasing stresses on water supply and agriculture, changed natural ecosystems, and reduced seasonal snow cover. Some adaptation has already occurred in response to observed climate change. Examples come from sectors such as water, natural ecosystems, agriculture, horticulture and coasts. However, ongoing vulnerability to extreme events is demonstrated by substantial economic losses caused by droughts, floods, fire, tropical cyclones and hail. The climate of the 21st century is virtually certain to be warmer, with changes in extreme events. Heat waves and fires are virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency. Floods, landslides, droughts and storm surges are very likely to become more frequent and intense, and snow and frost are very likely to become less frequent. Large areas of mainland Australia are likely to have less soil moisture. Potential impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial without further adaptation; As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia; Ongoing coastal development and population growth, in areas such as Cairns and south-east Queensland, are projected to exacerbate risks from sea level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich

  20. Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph; Waha, Katharina; Bondeau, Alberte; Heinke, Jens

    2014-08-01

    Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate

  2. An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henne, Paul; Bigalke, Moritz; Büntgen, Ulf; Colombaroli, Daniele; Conedera, Marco; Feller, Urs; Frank, David; Fuhrer, Jürg; Grosjean, Martin; Heiri, Oliver; Luterbacher, Jürg; Mestrot, Adrien; Rigling, Andreas; Rössler, Ole; Rohr, Christian; Rutishauser, This; Schwikowski, Margit; Stampfli, Andreas; Szidat, Sönke; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Weingartner, Rolf; Wilcke, Wolfgan; Tinner, Willy

    2018-01-01

    Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.

  3. Climate impact of supersonic air traffic: an approach to optimize a potential future supersonic fleet - results from the EU-project SCENIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grewe, V.; Stenke, A.; Ponater, M.; Sausen, R.; Pitari, G.; Iachetti, D.; Rogers, H.; Dessens, O.; Pyle, J.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Gulstad, L.; Søvde, O. A.; Marizy, C.; Pascuillo, E.

    2007-10-01

    The demand for intercontinental transportation is increasing and people are requesting short travel times, which supersonic air transportation would enable. However, besides noise and sonic boom issues, which we are not referring to in this investigation, emissions from supersonic aircraft are known to alter the atmospheric composition, in particular the ozone layer, and hence affect climate significantly more than subsonic aircraft. Here, we suggest a metric to quantitatively assess different options for supersonic transport with regard to the potential destruction of the ozone layer and climate impacts. Options for fleet size, engine technology (nitrogen oxide emission level), cruising speed, range, and cruising altitude, are analyzed, based on SCENIC emission scenarios for 2050, which underlay the requirements to be as realistic as possible in terms of e.g., economic markets and profitable market penetration. This methodology is based on a number of atmosphere-chemistry and climate models to reduce model dependencies. The model results differ significantly in terms of the response to a replacement of subsonic aircraft by supersonic aircraft, e.g., concerning the ozone impact. However, model differences are smaller when comparing the different options for a supersonic fleet. Those uncertainties were taken into account to make sure that our findings are robust. The base case scenario, where supersonic aircraft get in service in 2015, a first fleet fully operational in 2025 and a second in 2050, leads in our simulations to a near surface temperature increase in 2050 of around 7 mK and with constant emissions afterwards to around 21 mK in 2100. The related total radiative forcing amounts to 22 mWmargin-left: -1.3em; margin-right: .5em; vertical-align: -15%; font-size: .7em; color: #000;">m2 in 2050, with an uncertainty between 9 and 29 mWmargin-left: -1.3em; margin-right: .5em; vertical-align: -15%; font-size: .7em; color: #000;">m2. A reduced supersonic cruise

  4. Climate impact of supersonic air traffic: an approach to optimize a potential future supersonic fleet ─ results from the EU-project SCENIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.S.A. Isaksen

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The demand for intercontinental transportation is increasing and people are requesting short travel times, which supersonic air transportation would enable. However, besides noise and sonic boom issues, which we are not referring to in this investigation, emissions from supersonic aircraft are known to alter the atmospheric composition, in particular the ozone layer, and hence affect climate significantly more than subsonic aircraft. Here, we suggest a metric to quantitatively assess different options for supersonic transport with regard to the potential destruction of the ozone layer and climate impacts. Options for fleet size, engine technology (nitrogen oxide emission level, cruising speed, range, and cruising altitude, are analyzed, based on SCENIC emission scenarios for 2050, which underlay the requirements to be as realistic as possible in terms of e.g., economic markets and profitable market penetration. This methodology is based on a number of atmosphere-chemistry and climate models to reduce model dependencies. The model results differ significantly in terms of the response to a replacement of subsonic aircraft by supersonic aircraft, e.g., concerning the ozone impact. However, model differences are smaller when comparing the different options for a supersonic fleet. Those uncertainties were taken into account to make sure that our findings are robust. The base case scenario, where supersonic aircraft get in service in 2015, a first fleet fully operational in 2025 and a second in 2050, leads in our simulations to a near surface temperature increase in 2050 of around 7 mK and with constant emissions afterwards to around 21 mK in 2100. The related total radiative forcing amounts to 22 mWm2 in 2050, with an uncertainty between 9 and 29 mWm2. A reduced supersonic cruise altitude or speed (from Mach 2 to Mach 1.6 reduces both, climate impact and ozone destruction, by around 40%. An increase in the range of the supersonic aircraft leads to

  5. Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boé, Julien

    2018-03-01

    Multimodel ensembles are the main way to deal with model uncertainties in climate projections. However, the interdependencies between models that often share entire components make it difficult to combine their results in a satisfactory way. In this study, how the replication of components (atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice) between climate models impacts the proximity of their results is quantified precisely, in terms of climatological means and future changes. A clear relationship exists between the number of components shared by climate models and the proximity of their results. Even the impact of a single shared component is generally visible. These conclusions are true at both the global and regional scales. Given available data, it cannot be robustly concluded that some components are more important than others. Those results provide ways to estimate model interdependencies a priori rather than a posteriori based on their results, in order to define independence weights.

  6. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  7. The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

    2017-04-01

    One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European

  8. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hagemann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

  9. Worlding cities through their climate projects?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the built environment has emerged as a critical target of climate change intervention for urban governments around the world, engaging developers, professionals, activists and communities in a range of new eco-urbanism projects. While important contributions have been made......, this paper suggests that critical academic and policy debates on urban climate politics have so far paid insufficient attention to the sheer divergence in urban experiences, concerns and public–professional responses elicited through such experiments worldwide. By juxtaposing architectural and other eco......-housing practices from diverse cities on three continents—Kyoto (Japan), Copenhagen (Denmark) and Surat (India)—this paper aims to conjure a more cosmopolitan research imagination on how climatic solidarities may emerge in the face of multiple urban differences and inequalities. Towards this end, the paper...

  10. Can model weighting improve probabilistic projections of climate change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raeisaenen, Jouni; Ylhaeisi, Jussi S. [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 48, University of Helsinki (Finland)

    2012-10-15

    Recently, Raeisaenen and co-authors proposed a weighting scheme in which the relationship between observable climate and climate change within a multi-model ensemble determines to what extent agreement with observations affects model weights in climate change projection. Within the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset, this scheme slightly improved the cross-validated accuracy of deterministic projections of temperature change. Here the same scheme is applied to probabilistic temperature change projection, under the strong limiting assumption that the CMIP3 ensemble spans the actual modeling uncertainty. Cross-validation suggests that probabilistic temperature change projections may also be improved by this weighting scheme. However, the improvement relative to uniform weighting is smaller in the tail-sensitive logarithmic score than in the continuous ranked probability score. The impact of the weighting on projection of real-world twenty-first century temperature change is modest in most parts of the world. However, in some areas mainly over the high-latitude oceans, the mean of the distribution is substantially changed and/or the distribution is considerably narrowed. The weights of individual models vary strongly with location, so that a model that receives nearly zero weight in some area may still get a large weight elsewhere. Although the details of this variation are method-specific, it suggests that the relative strengths of different models may be difficult to harness by weighting schemes that use spatially uniform model weights. (orig.)

  11. Implementing Climate Services in Peru: CLIMANDES Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Mauchle, Fabian; Diaz, Amelia; Seiz, Gabriela; Rubli, Alex; Rossa, Andrea; Rosas, Gabriela; Ita, Niceforo; Calle, Victoria; Villegas, Esequiel; Ambrosetti, Paolo; Brönnimann, Stefan; Hunziker, Stefan; Jacques, Martin; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Konzelmann, Thomas; Gubler, Stefanie; Rohrer, Mario

    2014-05-01

    The climate variability and change will have increasing influence on the economic and social development of all countries and regions, such as the Andes in Latin America. The CLIMANDES project (Climate services to support decision-making in the Andean Region) will address these issues in Peru. CLIMANDES supports the WMO Regional Training Centre (RTC) in Lima, which is responsible for the training of specialized human resources in meteorology and climatology in the South American Andes (Module 1). Furthermore, CLIMANDES will provide high-quality climate services to inform policy makers in the Andean region (Module 2). It is coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and constitutes a pilot project under the umbrella of the WMO-led Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). The project is funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and runs from August 2012 - July 2015. Module 1 focuses on restructuring the curricula of Meteorology at the La Molina Agraria University (UNALM) and applied training of meteorologists of the Peruvian National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology (SENAMHI). In Module 2, the skills will be shared and developed in the production and delivery of high-quality climate products and services tailored to the needs of the decision makers in the pilot regions Cusco and Junín. Such services will benefit numerous sectors including agriculture, education, health, tourism, energy, transport and others. The goals of the modules 1 and 2 will be achieved through the collaboration of the UNALM, SENAMHI and the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, with the support of the University of Bern (UNIBE), Meteodat and WMO.

  12. Human activity and climate variability project: annual report 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harle, K.J.; Heijnis, H.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Sharmeen, S.; Zahorowski, W.

    2002-01-01

    Knowledge of the state of the Australian environment, including natural climate variability, prior to colonial settlement is vital if we are to define and understand the impact of over two hundred years of post-industrial human activity on our landscape. ANSTO, in conjunction with university partners, is leading a major research effort to provide natural archives of human activity and climate variability over the last 500 years in Australia, utilising a variety of techniques, including lead-210 and radiocarbon dating and analyses of proxy indicators (such as microfossils) as well as direct evidence (such as trace elements) of human activity and climate variability. The other major project objectives were to contribute to the understanding of the impact of human induced and natural aerosols in the East Asian region on climate through analysis and sourcing of fine particles and characterisation of air samples using radon concentrations and to contribute to the improvement of land surface parameterisation schemes and investigate the potential to use stable isotopes to improve global climate models and thus improve our understanding of future climate

  13. The impact of SciDAC on US climate change research and the IPCC AR4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wehner, Michael

    2005-01-01

    SciDAC has invested heavily in climate change research. We offer a candid opinion as to the impact of the DOE laboratories' SciDAC projects on the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  14. Climate change impacts in Northern Canada: Assessing our current knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gill, M.J.; Eamer, J. [Environment Canada, Environmental Conservation Branch, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Munier, A.; Ogden, A. [Yukon College, Northern Climate ExChange, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Duerden, F. [Ryerson University, School of Applied Geography, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hik, D. [Alberta Univ., Dept. of Biological Sciences, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Fox, S.; Riedlinger, D.; Thorpe, N. [GeoNorth Limited, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Johnson, I.; Jensen, M. [Legend Seekers Anthropological Research, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    A research project by the Northern Climate ExChange at Yukon College, undertaken to bring together into one document all relevant information that will help facilitate the identification of priorities for climate change research, monitoring, technological development and policy development in Canada's North, is described. In addition to the report, project deliverables also include a database of climate change information sources and a database of northern climate change contacts. The review includes scientific, local and Traditional Knowledge sources relating to climate change about each of seventeen natural and human systems (e.g. boreal forests, community health, mining, etc.), synthesized into a table for each system, with projected environmental changes crossed in matrix format with system components. Each cross-relationship was given a ranking; supporting information was included, based on the current state of knowledge of that relationship. In general, current information concerning northern systems, predicted climate changes and the impacts of those changes on northern systems is poor. However, much information does exist and the gap analysis revealed a number of general patterns relating to this information. Clearly, more research is required throughout northern Canada, but in particular, in the eastern Arctic, to provide a greater understanding of the implications of climate changes across the North, and to aid in the development of finer-scale, regional circulation models resulting in better predictive capacity of climate change and its impacts on northern areas.

  15. Final report of the project GICC-MedWater (march 2003/february 2006). Impacts of the climatic change on the hydrological cycle of the mediterranean basin; Rapport final du projet GICC-MedWater (mars 2003/fevrier 2006). Impacts du changement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique du bassin mediterraneen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, L

    2006-03-15

    In the framework of the climatic change, the management of the impacts needs a precise knowledge of the change characteristics at the regional scale. The hydrological cycle is an important component of the mediterranean regional climate. The GICC-MedWater project is placed in the scope of climatic scenari regionalization and studies the characteristics of the climatic warming for the mediterranean basin. The main objective is to propose scenari of the climate evolution, for the mediterranean basin region and the impacts on the general circulation and the biology of Mediterranean Sea. It also includes a validation of the models in order to verify the the quality of the obtained scenari. (A.L.B.)

  16. Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ( Theobroma Cacao ) Yields in Meme Division, South West Region of Cameroon. ... Farm selection was based on age, consistency of sizes and management practices in an attempt to keep the factors affecting cocoa yield constant. Data on cocoa yield, flowering, ...

  17. Climatic change impacts in Lombardia region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiorese, G.; Gatto, M.; De Leo, G.

    2008-01-01

    Climatic change will change significantly our Country through impacts of natural and physical systems, on human health and the productive sectors. This article describes the expected impacts in Lombardia region [it

  18. Dangerous Climate Velocities from Geoengineering Termination: Potential Biodiversity Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trisos, C.; Gurevitch, J.; Zambri, B.; Xia, L.; Amatulli, G.; Robock, A.

    2016-12-01

    Geoengineering has been suggested as a potential societal response to the impacts of ongoing global warming. If ongoing mitigation and adaptation measures do not prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change, it is important to study whether solar radiation management would make the world less dangerous. While impacts of albedo modification on temperature, precipitation, and agriculture have been studied before, here for the first time we investigate its potential ecological impacts. We estimate the speeds marine and terrestrial ecosystems will need to move to remain in their current climate conditions (i.e., climate velocities) in response to the implementation and subsequent termination of geoengineering. We take advantage of climate model simulations conducted using the G4 scenario of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which increased radiative forcing from the RCP4.5 scenario is balanced by a stratospheric aerosol cloud produced by an injection of 5 Tg of SO2 per year into the lower stratosphere for 50 years, and then stopped. The termination of geoengineering is projected to produce a very rapid warming of the climate, resulting in climate velocities much faster than those that will be produced from anthropogenic global warming. Should ongoing geoengineering be terminated abruptly due to society losing the means or will to continue, the resulting ecological impacts, as measured by climate velocities, could be severe for many terrestrial and marine biodiversity hotspots. Thus, the implementation of solar geoengineering represents a potential danger not just to humans, but also to biodiversity globally.

  19. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Enriquez-de-Salamanca, Alvaro; Diaz Sierra, R.; Martin-Aranda, Rosa; Ferreira Dos Santos, M.J.

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship

  20. Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uppenberg, S.; Zetterberg, L.; Aahman, M.

    2001-08-01

    The climate impact from the use of peat for energy production in Sweden has been evaluated in terms of contribution to atmospheric radiative forcing. This was done by attempting to answer the question 'What will be the climate impact if one would use 1 m{sup 2} of mire for peat extraction during 20 years?'. Two different methods of after-treatment were studied: afforestation and restoration of wetland. The climate impact from a peatland - wetland energy scenario and a peatland - forestry energy scenario was compared to the climate impact from coal, natural gas and forest residues. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate which parameters that are important to take into consideration in order to minimize the climate impact from peat utilisation.

  1. Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppenberg, S.; Zetterberg, L.; Aahman, M.

    2001-08-01

    The climate impact from the use of peat for energy production in Sweden has been evaluated in terms of contribution to atmospheric radiative forcing. This was done by attempting to answer the question 'What will be the climate impact if one would use 1 m 2 of mire for peat extraction during 20 years?'. Two different methods of after-treatment were studied: afforestation and restoration of wetland. The climate impact from a peatland - wetland energy scenario and a peatland - forestry energy scenario was compared to the climate impact from coal, natural gas and forest residues. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate which parameters that are important to take into consideration in order to minimize the climate impact from peat utilisation

  2. Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zongci Zhao

    2011-01-01

    @@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

  3. Economic impacts of climate change in the U.S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumann, J.

    1997-01-01

    Results of a long-term research project funded by EPRI to study the economic impacts of climate change in the U.S. were described. In 1992, Industrial Economics Inc., began an assessment of the impact of climate change in key natural resource sectors. A wide range of uniform climate scenarios were used to assess sensitivity across different temperature and precipitation gradients. Estimates were developed for the 2060 economy, using dynamic models to understand what was happening along the transient. It was projected that the greatest impact of climate change would be on the agricultural sector because of projected gains in productivity, mainly due to increased precipitation. Similar scenarios were developed for the economic impact of climate change on timber and coastal structures, including the loss of value of coastal property. Key limitations of the study, and future directions in research (e.g. extending the study to health and non-market impacts, including other developed and developing countries) were also outlined

  4. Final report of the project CARBOFOR. Carbon sequestration in the big forest ecosystems in France. Quantification, spatialization, vulnerability and impacts of different climatic and forestry scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loustau, D.

    2004-06-01

    The main outcomes of the project allowed to revise the carbon stock estimate of the national french forests, to clarify the interactions between climate and sylviculture according to the ecological profile of main species, to describe the changes in species area distribution for forest trees and pathogens. Different approaches for estimating the national carbon stock in forest biomass were investigated such as biomass equations and architectural models. Some conclusions in terms of adaptation scenario can be drawn. The global production potential of the french forest will be changed. This change is rapid and will occur a time interval shorter than average tree life duration. Species substitution and changing practices must be considered from now. The soil water holding capacity and the nutrient availability interact strongly with the climate effects and are therefore target factors for adapting forest stands to future changes. The dramatic change in the potential area distribution of most pathogens over France lead to recommend strong regulations for avoiding dissemination of fungal diseases and to anticipate the pathogen risks through species distribution. (A.L.B.)

  5. Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Karen; Smith, Shanon M; Carlton, Elizabeth J

    2018-06-01

    Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data. A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.

  6. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holper, Paul; Nolan, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

  7. To What Extent Can Existing Research Help Project Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity in Aquatic Environments? A Review of Methodological Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Forsman

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available It is broadly accepted that continued global warming will pose a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. But how reliable are current projections regarding consequences of future climate change for biodiversity? To address this issue, we review the methodological approaches in published studies of how life in marine and freshwater environments responds to temperature shifts. We analyze and compare observational field surveys and experiments performed either in the laboratory or under natural conditions in the wild, the type of response variables considered, the number of species investigated, study duration, and the nature and magnitude of experimental temperature manipulations. The observed patterns indicate that, due to limitations of study design, ecological and evolutionary responses of individuals, populations, species, and ecosystems to temperature change were in many cases difficult to establish, and causal mechanism(s often remained ambiguous. We also discovered that the thermal challenge in experimental studies was 10,000 times more severe than reconstructed estimates of past and projections of future warming of the oceans, and that temperature manipulations also tended to increase in magnitude in more recent studies. These findings raise some concerns regarding the extent to which existing research can increase our understanding of how higher temperatures associated with climate change will affect life in aquatic environments. In view of our review findings, we discuss the trade-off between realism and methodological tractability. We also propose a series of suggestions and directions towards developing a scientific agenda for improving the validity and inference space of future research efforts.

  8. Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

    2018-01-01

    Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

  9. "Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

    2015-01-01

    Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

  10. Climate Change Impacts on the Mediterranean Coastal Zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brochier, F.; Ramieri, E.

    2001-04-01

    The main objective of this paper is to highlight the potential impacts of changes in climatic conditions and in related variables, which could affect coastal areas, as well as to identify potential response measures which could reduce the vulnerability of coastal systems and enhance their adaptability. Attention will be focused on the Mediterranean basin which is in the climate change context, a zone of great interest and of recent concern at the world scale by some features: strong ocean-atmosphere-land interactions; contrast between the small size of the sea and its significant role in the global climate system; possibility to use it at a scaled down model for the monitoring of environmental and climate evolution; critical environmental conditions of some areas and high human pressure; and strong geographical, socio-economic and climatic contrasts. The first section provides an introduction to the climate change issue, the past trends and the projections of future climate at the global scale. The second section presents the main features of the Mediterranean basin and some relevant regional projections of future climatic variables. The third section focuses on the main likely impacts on the Mediterranean coasts. Different coastal systems - such as islands, deltas, estuaries, coastal wetlands and coastal cities - and different climate change impacts - such as inundation, increased flooding, salinisation, salt water intrusion, desertification, and increased erosion - are addressed in this section. Finally the last section brings some conclusions and identify some strategies of adaptations and directions for future research aimed at improving our ability to predict and assess the local impacts of climate change in the region

  11. Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Fokko Hattermann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of our study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the large river basins in Germany (Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Weser and Ems and thereby giving the range of impact uncertainty created by the most recent regional climate projections. The study shows mainly results for the A1B SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario scenario by comparing the reference period 1981–2010 and the scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 and using climate projections of a combination of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs and 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs as climate driver. The outcome is compared against impacts driven by a more recent RCP (Representative Emission Pathways scenario by using data of a statistical RCM. The results indicate that more robust conclusions can be drawn for some river basins, especially the Rhine and Danube basins, while diversity of results leads to higher uncertainty in the other river basins. The results also show that hydrology is very sensitive to changes in climate and effects of a general increase in precipitation can even be over-compensated by an increase in evapotranspiration. The decrease of runoff in late summer shown in most results can be an indicator for more pronounced droughts under scenario conditions.

  12. Impacts, risks, and governance of climate engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Liu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate engineering is a potential alternative method to curb global warming, and this discipline has garnered considerable attention from the international scientific community including the Chinese scientists. This manuscript provides an overview of several aspects of climate engineering, including its definition, its potential impacts and risk, and its governance status. The overall conclusion is that China is not yet ready to implement climate engineering. However, it is important for China to continue conducting research on climate engineering, particularly with respect to its feasible application within China, its potential social, economic, and environmental impacts, and possible international governance structures and governing principles, with regard to both experimentation and implementation.

  13. Climate Projections and Drought: Verification for the Colorado River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, N. I.; Piechota, T. C.; Miller, W. P.; Ahmad, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Colorado River Basin has experienced the driest 17 year period (2000-2016) in over 100 years of historical record keeping. While the Colorado River reservoir system began the current drought at near 100% capacity, reservoir storage has fallen to just above 50% during the drought. Even though federal and state water agencies have worked together to mitigate the impact of the drought and have collaboratively sponsored conservation programs and drought contingency plans, the 17-years of observed data beg the question as to whether the most recent climate projections would have been able to project the current drought's severity. The objective of this study is to analyze observations and ensemble projections (e.g. temperature, precipitation, streamflow) from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archive in the Colorado River Basin and compare metrics related to skill scores, the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and water supply sustainability index. Furthermore, a sub-ensemble of CMIP3/CMIP5 projections, developed using a teleconnection replication verification technique developed by the author, will also be compared to the observed record to assist in further validating the technique as a usable process to increase skill in climatological projections. In the end, this study will assist to better inform water resource managers about the ability of climate ensembles to project hydroclimatic variability and the appearance of decadal drought periods.

  14. Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyring, Veronika; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Berntsen, Terje; Collins, William J.; Corbett, James J.; Endresen, Oyvind; Grainger, Roy G.; Moldanova, Jana; Schlager, Hans; Stevenson, David S.

    2010-12-01

    Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO 2) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO 2, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO 2 is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO 2 equivalent emissions using

  15. assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    71

    model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate. 24 change on rainfall ... to project future climate data based on the CO2 emission scenarios.The RCMs are of finer ..... Springer Science+Business. 2.

  16. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Santos, Maria J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  17. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED)/Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 13, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Santos, Maria J., E-mail: M.J.FerreiraDosSantos@uu.nl [Department of Innovation, Environmental and Energy Sciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3572 TC Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2017-05-15

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  18. Climate change and UV-B impacts on Arctic Tundra and Polar Desert Ecosystems. Responses to Projected Changes in Climate and UV-B at the Specie s Level

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Callaghan, T. V.; Björn, L. O.; Chernov, Y.; Chapin, T.; Christensen, T. R.; Huntley, B.; Ims, R. A.; Johansson, M.; Jolly, D.; Jonasson, S.; Matveyeva, N.; Panikov, N.; Oechel, W.; Shaver, G.; Elster, Josef; Jónsdóttir, I. S.; Laine, K.; Taulavuori, K.; Taulavuori, E.; Zöckler, Ch.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 7 (2004), s. 418-435 ISSN 0044-7447 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK6005114; GA MŠk ME 576 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6005908 Keywords : cyanobacteria * algae * biodiversity Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.403, year: 2004

  19. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2011-12-01

    The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have

  20. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  1. Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip; hide

    2009-01-01

    This report critically reviews current knowledge about global distributions and properties of atmospheric aerosols, as they relate to aerosol impacts on climate. It assesses possible next steps aimed at substantially reducing uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Current measurement techniques and modeling approaches are summarized, providing context. As a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Product in the Climate Change Science Program, this assessment builds upon recent related assessments, including the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007) and other Climate Change Science Program reports. The objectives of this report are (1) to promote a consensus about the knowledge base for climate change decision support, and (2) to provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the climate-relevant impacts of anthropogenic aerosols for policy makers, policy analysts, and general public, both within and outside the U.S government and worldwide.

  2. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EU AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shailesh Shrestha

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The current paper investigates the medium term economic impact of climate changes on the EU agriculture. The yield change data under climate change scenarios are taken from the BIOMA (Biophysical Models Application simulation environment. We employ CAPRI modelling framework to identify the EU aggregate economic effects as well as regional impacts. We take into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector as well as technical adaptation of crops to climate change. Overall results indicate an increase in yields and production level in the EU agricultural sector due to the climate change. In general, there are relatively small effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of land use and welfare change by approximately between -2% and 0.2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with some stronger effects prevailing particularly in the Central and Northern EU and smaller impacts are observed in Southern Europe. Regional impacts of climate change vary by a factor higher up to 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes. The technical adaption of crops to climate change may result in a change production and land use by a factor between 1.4 and 6 relative to no-adaptation situation.

  3. Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J. Tol; Kuik, O.J.; Downing, T.; Smith, J.B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

  4. DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide climate services for coastal stakeholders dealing with climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torresan, S.; Gallina, V.; Giannini, V.; Rizzi, J.; Zabeo, A.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2012-04-01

    At the international level climate services are recognized as innovative tools aimed at providing and distributing climate data and information according to the needs of end-users. Furthermore, needs-based climate services are extremely effective to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. To date, climate services are mainly related to climate models that supply climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitations) at different spatial and time scales. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. DESYCO is a GIS-Decision Support System aimed at the integrated assessment of multiple climate change impacts on vulnerable coastal systems (e.g. beaches, river deltas, estuaries and lagoons, wetlands, agricultural and urban areas). It is an open source software that manages different input data (e.g. raster or shapefiles) coming from climate models (e.g. global and regional climate projections) and high resolution impact models (e.g. hydrodynamic, hydrological and biogeochemical simulations) in order to provide hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7) DESYCO is proposed as an helpful tool to bridge the gap between climate data and stakeholder needs and will be applied to the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) in order to provide climate services for local authorities involved in coastal zone management. Accordingly, a first workshop was held in Venice (Italy) with coastal authorities, climate experts and climate change risk experts, in order to start an iterative exchange of information about the knowledge related to climate change, climate

  5. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    on public health and identify appropriate adaptation strategies. Several studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on health, which have included evaluating the current associations between the recent changes in climate, and the evidence base analysis of current, as well as projecting the future impacts of climate change on health. This study will document the use of building an integrated approach for sustainable management of climate, environmental, health surveillance and epidemiological data that will support the assessment of vulnerability, impact and adaption to climate change.

  6. Towards implementing climate services in Peru – The project CLIMANDES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Rosas

    2016-12-01

    The efforts accomplished within CLIMANDES improved the quality of the climate services provided by SENAMHI. The project hence contributed successfully to higher awareness and higher confidence in the climate information by SENAMHI.

  7. Projections of climate potential for a touristic resort in Mallorca

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amengual Pou, Arnau; Homar Santaner, Victor; Romero March, Romualdo; Alonso Oroza, Sergio; Ramis Noguera, Climent

    2010-05-01

    Platja de Palma, in the Island of Mallorca, is one of the most popular touristic areas in the Mediterranean with more than 8 million tourist-nights spent per year. Socioeconomic activities undertaken in Platja de Palma are very closely linked with its climate. Therefore, optimization of residential and tourism opportunities in the medium term should necessarily take into account the close interdependence between the evolution of the main atmospheric parameters and the sea, sun and sand tourism (S3), the main tourist model exploited in the area and heavily dependent on the climate. We used the Climate Index for Tourism (CIT, Freitas et al. 2008) to estimate the satisfaction of the S3 tourist in terms of the environmental conditions of the day. The CIT integrates thermal aspects, aesthetic and physical parameters, and derive a measure of perceived satisfaction for the average tourists in terms of three thresholds: unacceptable conditions, acceptable, and ideal. In the first place, we analyzed the evolution of the CIT using data from the proximity weather station in Palma airport for the period 1973-2008. Then, the impact of climate change on the tourism potential of the resort was assessed by calculating the CIT for future climate scenarios. We used regional climate simulation results from the European project ENSEMBLES and for the period 2001-2050. In order to compute the CIT index, daily series of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, cloudiness and wind near surface are necessary. Model output series are calibrated using observations from Palma airport. In addition, future CIT series are also calibrated using values directly derived from observations. The analysis of the observed period reveals an increase in the number of days per year of acceptable conditions for S3 tourism since 1973 but a decrease in the frequency of ideal conditions, mainly during summer and autumn. Also, ideal conditions in Platja de Palma have increased in frequency during spring

  8. An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the chemical, physical and biological processes in the oceans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Louise Howes

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The 5th Assessment Report (AR5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC states with very high certainty that anthropogenic emissions have caused measurable changes in the physical ocean environment. These changes are summarized with special focus on those that are predicted to have the strongest, most direct effects on ocean biological processes; namely, ocean warming and associated phenomena (including stratification and sea level rise as well as deoxygenation and ocean acidification. The biological effects of these changes are then discussed for microbes (including phytoplankton, plants, animals, warm and cold-water corals, and ecosystems. The IPCC AR5 highlighted several areas related to both the physical and biological processes that required further research. As a rapidly developing field, there have been many pertinent studies published since the cut off dates for the AR5, which have increased our understanding of the processes at work. This study undertook an extensive review of recently published literature to update the findings of the AR5 and provide a synthesized review on the main issues facing future oceans. The level of detail provided in the AR5 and subsequent work provided a basis for constructing projections of the state of ocean ecosystems in 2100 under two the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and 8.5. Finally the review highlights notable additions, clarifications and points of departure from AR5 provided by subsequent studies.

  9. Adapting to the impacts of climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    America's Climate Choices: Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change; National Research Council

    2010-01-01

    "Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing...

  10. Fisheries: climate change impacts and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The report entitled Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation : A Canadian Perspective, presents a summary of research regarding the impacts of climate change on key sectors over the past five years as it relates to Canada. This chapter on fisheries focuses on the impact of climate change on Canada's marine and freshwater fisheries, and the role of adaptation in reducing the vulnerability of the sector. Canadian fisheries encompass the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans as well as freshwater systems. Fish health, productivity and distribution is strongly influenced by climatic factors such as air and water temperature, precipitation and wind. Most fish species have a distinct set of environmental conditions for optimal growth and survival. If the conditions change in response to changing climate, the fish may be affected. Some of the impacts include reduced growth, increased competition, a shift in species distribution, greater susceptibility to disease, and altered ecosystem function. Studies show that in some areas, fisheries may already be experiencing the effect of climate change. Recommendations were suggested on how to deal with the impacts associated with climate change in sensitive environments. It was noted that actions taken in the fisheries sector will have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. 103 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  11. Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambarelli, G.; Goria, A.

    2004-07-01

    The paper deals with the social and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide policy makers and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation from an economic perspective. In order to do so, first a conceptual and theoretical framework of the economic assessment of climate change impacts is presented and the state of the art about impact assessment studies is briefly analysed. Then, the Italian case is taken into account, by underlying the main impacts and adaptation challenges that are likely to be implied by climate change in the next decades. The analysis of the Italian case is particularly addressed through the description of the methodology and results of two case studies. The first one, dealing mainly with impact assessment, is carried out at the national level and is part of a EC funded project on Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). The second one is carried out at the local level and focuses on sea level rise impacts and adaptation in a plane south of Rome. The two case studies allow to propose simple and flexible methodologies for the economic impact assessment and the economic valuation of adaptation strategies

  12. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  13. Downscaling climate model output for water resources impacts assessment (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, E. P.; Pierce, D. W.; Cayan, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    Water agencies in the U.S. and around the globe are beginning to wrap climate change projections into their planning procedures, recognizing that ongoing human-induced changes to hydrology can affect water management in significant ways. Future hydrology changes are derived using global climate model (GCM) projections, though their output is at a spatial scale that is too coarse to meet the needs of those concerned with local and regional impacts. Those investigating local impacts have employed a range of techniques for downscaling, the process of translating GCM output to a more locally-relevant spatial scale. Recent projects have produced libraries of publicly-available downscaled climate projections, enabling managers, researchers and others to focus on impacts studies, drawing from a shared pool of fine-scale climate data. Besides the obvious advantage to data users, who no longer need to develop expertise in downscaling prior to examining impacts, the use of the downscaled data by hundreds of people has allowed a crowdsourcing approach to examining the data. The wide variety of applications employed by different users has revealed characteristics not discovered during the initial data set production. This has led to a deeper look at the downscaling methods, including the assumptions and effect of bias correction of GCM output. Here new findings are presented related to the assumption of stationarity in the relationships between large- and fine-scale climate, as well as the impact of quantile mapping bias correction on precipitation trends. The validity of these assumptions can influence the interpretations of impacts studies using data derived using these standard statistical methods and help point the way to improved methods.

  14. Bangladesh Agro-Climatic Environmental Monitoring Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermillion, C.; Maurer, H.; Williams, M.; Kamowski, J.; Moore, T.; Maksimovich, W.; Obler, H.; Gilbert, E.

    1988-01-01

    The Agro-Climatic Environmental Monitoring Project (ACEMP) is based on a Participating Agency Service Agreement (PASA) between the Agency for International Development (AID) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In FY80, the Asia Bureau and Office of Federal Disaster Assistance (OFDA), worked closely to develop a funding mechanism which would meet Bangladesh's needs both for flood and cyclone warning capability and for application of remote sensing data to development problems. In FY90, OFDA provided for a High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) receiving capability to improve their forecasting accuracy for cyclones, flooding and storm surges. That equipment is primarily intended as a disaster prediction and preparedness measure. The ACEM Project was designed to focus on the development applications of remote sensing technology. Through this Project, AID provided to the Bangladesh Government (BDG) the equipment, technical assistance, and training necessary to collect and employ remote sensing data made available by satellites as well as hydrological data obtained from data collection platforms placed in major rivers. The data collected will enable the BDG to improve the management of its natural resources.

  15. Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part II: Air quality projections and the interplay between emissions and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

    2018-07-01

    In Part II of this work we present the results of the downscaled offline Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) model, included in the "Technology Driver Model" (TDM) approach to future U.S. air quality projections (2046-2050) compared to a current-year period (2001-2005), and the interplay between future emission and climate changes. By 2046-2050, there are widespread decreases in future concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x  = NO + NO 2 ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) due mainly to decreasing on-road vehicle (ORV) emissions near urban centers as well as decreases in other transportation modes that include non-road engines (NRE). However, there are widespread increases in daily maximum 8-hr ozone (O 3 ) across the U.S., which are due to enhanced greenhouse gases (GHG) including methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario, and isolated areas of larger reduction in transportation emissions of NO x compared to that of VOCs over regions with VOC-limited O 3 chemistry. Other notable future changes are reduced haze and improved visibility, increased primary organic to elemental carbon ratio, decreases in PM 2.5 and its species, decreases and increases in dry deposition of SO 2 and O 3 , respectively, and decreases in total nitrogen (TN) deposition. There is a tendency for transportation emission and CH 4 changes to dominate the increases in O 3 , while climate change may either enhance or mitigate these increases in the west or east U.S., respectively. Climate change also decreases PM 2.5 in the future. Other variable changes exhibit stronger susceptibility to either emission (e.g., CO, NO x , and TN deposition) or climate changes (e.g., VOC, NH 3 , SO 2 , and total sulfate deposition), which also have a strong

  16. Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater supplies to the Doñana wetland, Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Jackson, Christopher R.; Guardiola-Albert, Carolina

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on natural recharge and groundwater-wetland dynamics were investigated for the Almonte-Marismas aquifer, Spain, which supports the internationally important Doñana wetland. Simulations were carried out using outputs from 13 global climate models to assess the impacts of climate change. Reductions in flow from the aquifer to streams and springs flooding the wetland, induced by changes in recharge according to different climate projections, were modelled. The results proj...

  17. Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; O'Neill, Andrea; Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Finzi Hart, Juliette; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick; Hayden, Maya; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Lovering, Jessica; Foxgrover, Amy C.

    2018-01-01

    This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9–350% (an additional average 53.0 ± 16.0 km2) in addition to a 25–500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55–110% increase in residential impact and a 40–90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations.

  18. Increasing impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc; Silva, Filipe Batista e.; Marin, Mario; Lavalle, Carlo; Leblois, Antoine

    2016-04-01

    The projected increases in exposure to multiple climate hazards in many regions of Europe, emphasize the relevance of a multi-hazard risk assessment to comprehensively quantify potential impacts of climate change and develop suitable adaptation strategies. In this context, quantifying the future impacts of climatic extremes on critical infrastructures is crucial due to their key role for human wellbeing and their effects on the overall economy. Critical infrastructures describe the existing assets and systems that are essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of people, and the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact as a result of the failure to maintain those functions. We assess the direct damages of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, droughts, wildfires and windstorms to energy, transport, industry and social infrastructures in Europe along the 21st century. The methodology integrates in a coherent framework climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. Overall damage is expected to rise up to 38 billion €/yr, ten time-folds the current climate damage, with drastic variations in risk scenarios. Exemplificative are drought and heat-related damages that could represent 70% of the overall climate damage in 2080s versus the current 12%. Many regions, prominently Southern Europe, will likely suffer multiple stresses and systematic infrastructure failures due to climate extremes if no suitable adaptation measures will be taken.

  19. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

  20. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. We apply an ensemble of watershed models to simulate and assess the responses of hydrological and total Hg (HgT) fluxes and concentrations to two climate change projections in the US Co...

  1. Projected climate change threatens pollinators and crop production in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tereza Cristina Giannini

    Full Text Available Animal pollination can impact food security since many crops depend on pollinators to produce fruits and seeds. However, the effects of projected climate change on crop pollinators and therefore on crop production are still unclear, especially for wild pollinators and aggregate community responses. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of 95 pollinator species of 13 Brazilian crops, and we estimated their relative impacts on crop production. We described these effects at the municipality level, and we assessed the crops that were grown, the gross production volume of these crops, the total crop production value, and the number of inhabitants. Overall, considering all crop species, we found that the projected climate change will reduce the probability of pollinator occurrence by almost 0.13 by 2050. Our models predict that almost 90% of the municipalities analyzed will face species loss. Decreases in the pollinator occurrence probability varied from 0.08 (persimmon to 0.25 (tomato and will potentially affect 9% (mandarin to 100% (sunflower of the municipalities that produce each crop. Municipalities in central and southern Brazil will potentially face relatively large impacts on crop production due to pollinator loss. In contrast, some municipalities in northern Brazil, particularly in the northwestern Amazon, could potentially benefit from climate change because pollinators of some crops may increase. The decline in the probability of pollinator occurrence is found in a large number of municipalities with the lowest GDP and will also likely affect some places where crop production is high (20% to 90% of the GDP and where the number of inhabitants is also high (more than 6 million people. Our study highlights key municipalities where crops are economically important and where pollinators will potentially face the worst conditions due to climate change. However, pollinators

  2. Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on the Mangrove ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Already under threat from water pollution, deforestation and overfishing (black conch), ... local authorities and other stakeholders, will document the impact of climate ... Adaptation strategies for two Colombian cities were discussed at ADAPTO's ... International Water Resources Association, in close collaboration with IDRC, ...

  3. Simulations of Vegetation Impacts on Arctic Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfils, C.; Phillips, T. J.; Riley, W. J.; Post, W. M.; Torn, M. S.

    2009-12-01

    Because global warming disproportionately influences high-latitude climate, changes in arctic vegetation are in progress. These land-cover changes include redistribution of local vegetation types as well as northward migration of lower-latitude species in response to the increasing warming. The resulting displacement of low-lying tundra vegetation by shrubs and trees darkens the surface, thus accelerating regional warming. As participants in the U.S. Department of Energy IMPACTS Project, we are investigating the potential for abrupt arctic climatic change resulting from such variations in vegetation, among other mechanisms. To estimate the relative magnitudes of effects to be expected from changes in high-latitude land cover, we are conducting several numerical experiments with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). These experiments include: 1) A “present-day-climate” control experiment with current atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations and climatological monthly sea surface temperatures and sea ice extents prescribed, and with “standard” CLM plant functional types (PFTs) specified; 2) A “changed-vegetation-type” experiment that is the same as 1), except that the “standard” PFTs are augmented by additional vegetation types (forbs, sedges, shrubs, mosses, and lichens) that are not presently represented in CLM. This experiment will require information on the location, fractional cover, and physiological parameterizations of these new PFTs. 3) A “changed-vegetation-extent experiment” that is the same as 2), except that the spatial extents of selected PFTs (e.g. shrubs or boreal forest PFTs) are shifted northward from their present locations in the CLM. We will report on the atmospheric climate and land-surface feedbacks associated with these vegetation changes, with emphasis on local and regional surface energy and moisture fluxes and near-surface temperature, humidity, and clouds. Acknowledgments This work was performed under the auspices

  4. Chemistry and Climate in Asia - An Earth System Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Massie, S. T.; Pfister, G.; Romero Lankao, P.; Lamarque, J.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Asia is one of the most highly populated and economically dynamic regions in the world, with much of the population located in growing mega-cities. It is a region with significant emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other pollutants, which pose high health risks to urban populations. Emissions of these aerosols and gases increased drastically over the last decade due to economic growth and urbanization and are expected to rise further in the near future. As such, the continent plays a role in influencing climate change via its effluent of aerosols and gaseous pollutants. Asia is also susceptible to adverse climate change through interactions between aerosols and clouds, which potentially can have serious implications for freshwater resources. We are developing an integrated inter-disciplinary program to focus on Asia, its climate, air quality, and impact on humans that will include connections with hydrology, ecosystems, extreme weather events, and human health. The primary goal of this project is to create a team to identify key scientific questions and establish networks of specialists to create a plan for future studies to address these questions. A second goal is to establish research facilities and a framework for investigating chemistry and climate over Asia. These facilities include producing high resolution Earth System Model simulations that have been evaluated with meteorological and chemical measurements, producing high-resolution emission inventories, analyzing satellite data, and analyzing the vulnerability of humans to air quality and extreme natural events. In this presentation we will describe in more detail these activities and discuss a future workshop on the impact of chemistry in climate on air quality and human health.

  5. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Escuela de Doctorado, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 29, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain)

    2016-02-15

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  6. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén

    2016-01-01

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  7. Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

    2016-01-01

    Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

  8. Climate Change in Myanmar: Impacts and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Intelligence Agency CO2 carbon dioxide CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent EIA environmental impact assessment ENSO El Nino southern oscillation EPA...therefore exposed to long-term climatic impacts such 25 Central Intelligence Agency [CIA], “The World...economy as well as result in human suffering through increased rates of malnutrition , health problems, and mortality. The IPCC and the global

  9. Climate change projections: past and future mysteries of climate science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The history of climate change has been wrapped in mysteries. Some have been solved, and we await the outcome of others. The major mystery of 20th century climate was why did temperatures rise in the early part of the century, level off, and then rise rapidly again after the 1970s? It has only been in the past seven years that advances in climate modelling have allowed us to deconstruct 20th century climate to pull apart the separate influences of natural and human-caused factors. This has allowed us to understand the subtle interplay between these various influences that produced the temperature time evolution. Another mystery has involved extreme weather and climate events. Again, climate models have allowed us to quantify how the small changes in average climate translate into much larger changes of regional extremes. The biggest remaining mysteries in climate science involve the future, and how the climate will evolve over the coming century. Up until now, various scenarios postulating different possible outcomes for 21st century climate, assuming different types of human activities, have been run in the climate models to provide a wide range of possible futures. However, more recently the outlook for global warming is being framed as a combination of mitigation and adaptation. If policy actions are taken to mitigate part of the problem of global warming, then climate models must be relied on to quantify the time-evolving picture of how much regional climate change we must adapt to. Solving this mystery will be the biggest and most important challenge ever taken on by the climate modelling community

  10. Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

    2013-12-01

    We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

  11. Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

    2013-01-01

    We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia. (letter)

  12. Climate change impacts on forest fires: the stakeholders' perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Roussos, A.; Karali, A.; Hatzaki, M.; Xanthopoulos, G.; Chatzinikos, E.; Fyllas, N.; Georgiades, N.; Karetsos, G.; Maheras, G.; Nikolaou, I.; Proutsos, N.; Sbarounis, T.; Tsaggari, K.; Tzamtzis, I.; Goodess, C.

    2012-04-01

    In this work, we present a synthesis of the presentations and discussions which arose during a workshop on 'Impacts of climate change on forest fires' held in September 2011 at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece in the framework of EU project CLIMRUN. At first, a general presentation about climate change and extremes in the Greek territory provided the necessary background to the audience and highlighted the need for data and information exchange between scientists and stakeholders through climate services within CLIMRUN. Discussions and presentations that followed linked climate with forest science through the use of a meteorological index for fire risk and future projections of fire danger using regional climate models. The current situation on Greek forests was also presented, as well as future steps that should be taken to ameliorate the situation under a climate change world. A time series analysis of changes in forest fires using available historical data on forest ecosystems in Greece was given in this session. This led to the topic of forest fire risk assessment and fire prevention, stating all actions towards sustainable management of forests and effective mechanisms to control fires under climate change. Options for a smooth adaptation of forests to climate change were discussed together with the lessons learned on practical level on prevention, repression and rehabilitation of forest fires. In between there were useful interventions on sustainable hunting and biodiversity protection and on climate change impacts on forest ecosystems dynamics. The importance of developing an educational program for primary/secondary school students on forest fire management was also highlighted. The perspective of forest stakeholders on climate change and how this change can affect their current or future activities was addressed through a questionnaire they were asked to complete. Results showed that the majority of the participants consider climate variability

  13. Impacts of climate change in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bresser, A.H.M.; Berk, M.M.; Van den Born, G.J.; Van Bree, L.; Van Gaalen, F.W.; Ligtvoet, W.; Van Minnen, J.G.; Witmer, M.C.H.

    2005-10-01

    The main conclusion of the study on the title subject is that the impacts of climatic change in the Netherlands are still limited. However, the impacts will be stronger in the next decades and will be even problematic at the end of this century. In this book an overview is given of probable changes in the climate for the Netherlands, danger for flooding in specific areas of the Netherlands, changes of the nature, impacts for agriculture, tourism and recreation, and industry and businesses, and risks for public health [nl

  14. The Oceans 2015 Initiative, Part I - An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on physical and biological processes in the oceans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howes, Ella L.; Joos, Fortunat; Eakin, Mark; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre

    2015-01-01

    The oceans have absorbed approximately 93% of the excess heat caused by global warming. Warming increases stratification, limiting the circulation of nutrients from deep waters to the surface. There is evidence that enhanced stratification and increasing temperature are causing a decline in dissolved oxygen concentration and expanding existing oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Approximately 26% of anthropogenic CO 2 is absorbed by the oceans, resulting in a reduction in pH and carbonate ion concentration, termed ocean acidification. Anthropogenic CO 2 has caused global ocean pH to decrease by 0.1 units since the start of the Industrial Revolution. The ocean ecosystems are responding to the changing environment, but at different rates and magnitudes and with interspecific and geographic variation in responses. Warming causes shifts in species' geographic distribution, abundance, migration patterns and phenology. Organisms that produce shells and skeletons from calcium carbonate are at most risk from ocean acidification as it lowers the saturation state of the mineral, favouring a dissolution reaction. To date, there are few observations of ocean acidification effects in natural communities; however, experimental evidence suggests that the risk to ecosystems will increase over the coming decades. Decreasing dissolved oxygen concentrations and expanding OMZs will favour anaerobic metabolisers such as bacteria and small microbes whilst reducing habitat for larger, oxygen dependent organisms. The interaction of multiple drivers can amplify or alleviate each other's effects. It is likely that marine organisms will experience a combination of warming, acidification and declining oxygen concentrations as well as regionally specific local stressors. This makes it difficult to predict the responses of individual species to multiple drivers, and species interactions make ecosystem- based projections challenging. Using the available evidence, projections have been

  15. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: Computer simulation -climate impact research. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-07-01

    Climate impact assessment is a new field of research which, owing to international and national efforts to understand and cope with the impending global climate changes on a global, regional and local level, has rapidly become a central field of research of the Federal Ministry of Research and Technology. In contrast to other countries, Germany had no research facilities and infrastructure that could be used. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was to provide the infrastructure basis for climate impact research in Germany. The Institute was founded by the BMFT and the Land of Brandenburg. (orig.) [de

  16. A probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on yield and nitrogen leaching from winter wheat in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2011-01-01

    Climate change will impact agricultural production both directly and indirectly, but uncertainties related to likely impacts constrain current political decision making on adaptation. This analysis focuses on a methodology for applying probabilistic climate change projections to assess modelled...... the importance of including soil information for regional studies of climate change impacts on cropping systems....

  17. Impacts of climate change on electricity network business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auvinen, O.; Martikainen, A.

    2006-01-01

    In this project the impact of climate change on electricity network business was study. The results are based on RCAO climate model scenarios. The climate predictions were composed to the period 2016- 2045. The period 1960-1990 was used as a control period. The climate predictions were composed for precipitation, temperature, hoarfrost, thunder, ground frost and wind. Impacts of the change of the climate variables on electricity network business were estimated from technical and economical points of view. It is expected that climate change will cause more damages than benefits on the electricity network business. The increase of the number of network faults will be the most significant and demanding disadvantage caused by climate change in distribution network. If networks are not improved to be more resistant for faults, then thunder, heavy snow and wind cause more damages especially to overhead lines in medium voltage network. Increasing precipitation and decreasing amount of ground frost weaken the strength of soil. The construction work will be more difficult with the present vehicles because wet and unfrozen ground can not carry heavy vehicles. As a consequence of increasing temperature, the demand of heating energy will decrease and the demand of cooling energy will increase. This is significant for the electricity consumption and the peak load of temperature-dependent electricity users. (orig.)

  18. Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a review of modelling challenges and open questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefli, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Hydropower is a pillar for renewable electricity production in almost all world regions. The planning horizon of major hydropower infrastructure projects stretches over several decades and consideration of evolving climatic conditions plays an ever increasing role. This review of model-based climate change impact assessments provides a synthesis of the wealth of underlying modelling assumptions, highlights the importance of local factors and attempts to identify the most urgent open questions. Based on existing case studies, it critically discusses whether current hydro-climatic modelling frameworks are likely to provide narrow enough water scenario ranges to be included into economic analyses for end-to-end climate change impact assessments including electricity market models. This will be completed with an overview of not or indirectly climate-related boundary conditions, such as economic growth, legal constraints, national subsidy frameworks or growing competition for water, which might locally largely outweigh any climate change impacts.

  19. Climate change impacts: an Ontario perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortsch, L.

    1995-11-01

    Significant changes in the climate system which are likely to affect biophysical, social and economic systems in various ways, were discussed. Trends in greenhouse gas levels show that during the 20. century, human activity has changed the make-up of the atmosphere and its greenhouse effect properties. A pilot study on the impacts of climate change identified changes in the water regime such as declines in net basin supply, lake levels and outflows, as important concerns. These changes would have impacts on water quality, wetlands, municipal water supply, hydroelectric power generation, commercial shipping, tourism and recreation, and to a lesser extent, on food productions. Climate impact assessments suggest that world conditions will change significantly as a result. Those with less resources are likely to be most affected by climate change, and the impacts on other regions of the world will be more significant to Ontario than the direct impacts on Ontario itself. In an effort to keep pace with global changes, Ontario will have to limit emissions, conduct research in innovative technology and develop greater awareness of the risk of climate change. refs., tabs., figs

  20. Impacts of climate change on fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    Evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems is accumulating, but must be evaluated in the context of the "normal" climate cycles and variability which have caused fluctuations in fisheries throughout human history. The impacts on fisheries are due to a variety...... experimentally and in controlled conditions. Indirect effects act via ecosystem processes and changes in the production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogens. Recent studies of the effects of climate on primary production are reviewed and the consequences for fisheries production...... are evaluated through regional examples. Regional examples are also used to show changes in distribution and phenology of plankton and fish, which are attributed to climate. The role of discontinuous and extreme events (regime shifts, exceptional warm periods) is discussed. Changes in fish population processes...

  1. Scientific knowledge at the service of the COP21. A collection of research projects 2008-2015 from the 'Management and impacts of Climate Change' programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine; Quenol, Herve; Glachant, Matthieu; Haurie, Alain; Braconnot, Pascal; Dandin, Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Salles, Denis; Le Hir, Pierre; Bossini, Serge; Imbard, Maurice; Tabau, Anne-Sophie

    2015-11-01

    After a presentation of the GICC research programme (a programme on the Management and Impacts of Climate Change), presentations of various researches are proposed. They deal with climate change mitigation as an aid to decision (a legal interpretation of major stakes; study of the industrial economy of sector-based agreements, ETEM-AR or modelling mitigation and adaptation of the energy system in a local climate plan), with climate services as support to decision (INVULNERABLE, a study of the vulnerability of enterprises; DRIAS to give access to French regionalized climate simulations and scenarios), and with the adaptation to climate change to the service of the territory (R2D2 2050, study of risk, water resource and sustainable management of the Durance river in 2050; C3E2, study of the consequences of climate change on the eco-morphology of estuaries; TERADCLIM, study of the adaptation to climate change at the scale of wine growing territories)

  2. Impacts of 2000-2050 Climate Change on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Air Quality in China Based on Statistical Projections Using an Ensemble of Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, D. M.; Tai, A. P. K.; Shen, L.; Moch, J. M.; van Donkelaar, A.; Mickley, L. J.

    2017-12-01

    Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality is strongly dependent on not only on emissions but also meteorological conditions. Here we examine the dominant synoptic circulation patterns that control day-to-day PM2.5 variability over China. We perform principal component (PC) analysis on 1998-2016 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I daily meteorological fields to diagnose distinct synoptic meteorological modes, and perform PC regression on spatially interpolated 2014-2016 daily mean PM2.5 concentrations in China to identify modes dominantly explaining PM2.5 variability. We find that synoptic systems, e.g., cold-frontal passages, maritime inflow and frontal precipitation, can explain up to 40% of the day-to-day PM2.5 variability in major metropolitan regions in China. We further investigate how annually changing frequencies of synoptic systems, as well as changing local meteorology, drive interannual PM2.5 variability. We apply a spectral analysis on the PC time series to obtain the 1998-2016 annual median synoptic frequency, and use a forward-selection multiple linear regression (MLR) model of satellite-derived 1998-2015 annual mean PM2.5 concentrations on local meteorology and synoptic frequency, selecting predictors that explain the highest fraction of interannual PM2.5 variability while guarding against multicollinearity. To estimate the effect of climate change on future PM2.5 air quality, we project a multimodel ensemble of 15 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 scenario on the PM2.5-to-meteorology sensitivities derived for the present-day from the MLR model. Our results show that climate change could be responsible for increases in PM2.5 of more than 25 μg m-3 in northwestern China and 10 mg m-3 in northeastern China by the 2050s. Increases in synoptic frequency of cold-frontal passages cause only a modest 1 μg m-3 decrease in PM2.5 in North China Plain. Our analyses show that climate change imposes a significant penalty on air quality over China and poses serious threat on

  3. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

    2011-06-22

    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

  4. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  5. Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem

    2014-05-01

    This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

  6. Assessing the impact of aviation on climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Marais

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available We present an assessment of the marginal climate impacts of new aviation activities. We use impulse response functions derived from carbon-cycle and atmospheric models to estimate changes in surface temperature for various aviation impacts (CO2, NOx on methane, NOx on ozone, sulfates, soot, and contrails/induced cirrus. We use different damage functions and discount rates to explore health, welfare and ecological costs for a range of assumptions and scenarios. Since uncertainty is high regarding many aviation effects, we explicitly capture some uncertainty by representing several model parameters as probabilistic distributions. The uncertainties are then propagated using Monte Carlo analysis to derive estimates for the impact of these uncertainties on the marginal future climate impacts. Our goal is to provide a framework that will communicate the potential impacts of aviation on climate change under different scenarios and assumptions, and that will allow decision-makers to compare these potential impacts to other aviation environmental impacts. We present results to describe the influence of parametric uncertainties, scenarios, and assumptions for valuation on the expected marginal future costs of aviation impacts. Estimates of the change in global average surface temperature due to aviation are most sensitive to changes in climate sensitivity, the radiative forcing attributed to short-lived effects (in particular those related to contrails and aviation-induced cirrus, and the choice of emissions scenario. Estimates of marginal future costs of aviation are most sensitive to assumptions regarding the discount rate, followed by assumptions regarding climate sensitivity, and the choice of emissions scenario.

  7. Climate change and its gendered impacts on agriculture in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trung, P.T

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Studies have shown that Vietnam is one of the countries that most affected by climate change because of its geographical and natural conditions together with its fast but massive and unplanned urbanization. There are many research and studies that have been conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on different sectors in Vietnam. Agriculture plays an important role in the country’s economy in terms of poverty reduction, food security, employment and export but projected to be heavily affected because of sea level rise, floods or droughts etc. A large proportion of Vietnam’s population, especially women, involves with agricultural works and production. So, this paper using a gender perspective will examine possible impacts that climate change has been causing to women and men differently in order to propose some solutions for the facing problems. Since the paper only utilizes available resources, it can serve as a concept note for further works in the future.

  8. Climate impact of transportation A model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girod, B.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Grahn, M.; Kitous, A.; Kim, S.H.; Kyle, P.

    2013-01-01

    Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global

  9. Impact of Wave Dragon on Wave Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Tedd, James; Kramer, Morten

    This report is an advisory paper for use in determining the wave dragon effects on hydrography, by considering the effect on the wave climate in the region of a wave dragon. This is to be used in the impact assessment for the Wave Dragon pre-commercial demonstrator.......This report is an advisory paper for use in determining the wave dragon effects on hydrography, by considering the effect on the wave climate in the region of a wave dragon. This is to be used in the impact assessment for the Wave Dragon pre-commercial demonstrator....

  10. Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Han-Yong; Ko, Jonghan; Kang, Suchel; Tenhunen, John

    2013-02-01

    The crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the East Asian monsoon system using the CERES-Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO2 and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber (TGFC) with a CO2 enrichment system installed at Chonnam National University in Gwangju, Korea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other Japonica rice growing regions in East Asia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in Gwangju, Korea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO2 elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (-22.1% and -35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in Harbin, China. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES-Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Climate Impacts of Ice Nucleation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gettelman, Andrew; Liu, Xiaohong; Barahona, Donifan; Lohmann, Ulrike; Chen, Celia

    2012-01-01

    Several different ice nucleation parameterizations in two different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to understand the effects of ice nucleation on the mean climate state, and the Aerosol Indirect Effects (AIE) of cirrus clouds on climate. Simulations have a range of ice microphysical states that are consistent with the spread of observations, but many simulations have higher present-day ice crystal number concentrations than in-situ observations. These different states result from different parameterizations of ice cloud nucleation processes, and feature different balances of homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. Black carbon aerosols have a small (0.06 Wm(exp-2) and not statistically significant AIE when included as ice nuclei, for nucleation efficiencies within the range of laboratory measurements. Indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds occur as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic sulfur emissions with different mechanisms important in different models. In one model this is due to increases in homogeneous nucleation fraction, and in the other due to increases in heterogeneous nucleation with coated dust. The magnitude of the effect is the same however. The resulting ice AIE does not seem strongly dependent on the balance between homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation. Regional effects can reach several Wm2. Indirect effects are slightly larger for those states with less homogeneous nucleation and lower ice number concentration in the base state. The total ice AIE is estimated at 0.27 +/- 0.10 Wm(exp-2) (1 sigma uncertainty). This represents a 20% offset of the simulated total shortwave AIE for ice and liquid clouds of 1.6 Wm(sup-2).

  12. Land use allocation model considering climate change impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. K.; Yoon, E. J.; Song, Y. I.

    2017-12-01

    In Korea, climate change adaptation plans are being developed for each administrative district based on impact assessments constructed in various fields. This climate change impact assessments are superimposed on the actual space, which causes problems in land use allocation because the spatial distribution of individual impacts may be different each other. This implies that trade-offs between climate change impacts can occur depending on the composition of land use. Moreover, the actual space is complexly intertwined with various factors such as required area, legal regulations, and socioeconomic values, so land use allocation in consideration of climate change can be very difficult problem to solve (Liu et al. 2012; Porta et al. 2013).Optimization techniques can generate a sufficiently good alternatives for land use allocation at the strategic level if only the fitness function of relationship between impact and land use composition are derived. It has also been noted that land use optimization model is more effective than the scenario-based prediction model in achieving the objectives for problem solving (Zhang et al. 2014). Therefore in this study, we developed a quantitative tool, MOGA (Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm), which can generate a comprehensive land use allocations considering various climate change impacts, and apply it to the Gangwon-do in Korea. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are the most popular optimization technique to address multi-objective in land use allocation. Also, it allows for immediate feedback to stake holders because it can run a number of experiments with different parameter values. And it is expected that land use decision makers and planners can formulate a detailed spatial plan or perform additional analysis based on the result of optimization model. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program (Project number: 2014001310006)"

  13. Projecting species' vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Ray, Andrea J; Noon, Barry R

    2017-11-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water

  14. Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

  15. Evaluation and prediction of groundwater storage changes in Beijing under the impacts of the South to North Water Diversion Project and climate change using ground observations, remote sensing and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, D.; Wada, Y.; Zhao, J.; Hong, Y.; Liu, D.; You, L.

    2017-12-01

    As China's Capital, Beijing currently has a population of 22 million people with per capital water resources of less than 100 m3, one twentieth of the national average and one eightieth of the global. Groundwater withdrawals (2.3 billion m3/year) account for approximately two thirds of total water use (3.5 billion m3/year) in Beijing, resulting in significant groundwater depletion and associated environmental issues, such as land subsidence. Increases in human and ecological water demand would add further pressure on Beijing's groundwater resources. Unsustainable groundwater use threatens societal and economic development of Beijing and poses a large uncertainty in future water supply. To partly alleviate the water shortage issue in the more arid and industrialized North China, the Chinese government has launched the largest water diversion project in the world, i.e., the South to North Water Diversion Project (SNWD), which is a multi-decadal mega-infrastructure project, with the aim to transfer 44.8 billion m3 of fresh water annually from the Yangtze River in the more humid south through three canal and pipeline systems (east, central, and west routes). Its central route flows from the upper reaches of the Han River, a tributary of the Yangtze River to Beijing, Tianjin and other major cities in Hebei and Henan Provinces. Since Dec 2014 when the water transferred by the central route reached Beijing to Feb 2017, totally 2 billion m3 of water has been transferred. This has profoundly altered the structure of water supply in Beijing. This study quantifies how the SNWD project impacts groundwater storage of Beijing and projects how groundwater storage changes in the future under different climate and policy scenarios.

  16. Climate impact on BC Hydro's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.; Rodenhuis, D.

    2008-01-01

    BC Hydro like many other hydro utilities has used the historical record of weather and runoff as the standard description the variability and uncertainty of the key weather drivers for its operation and planning studies. It has been conveniently assumed that this historical record is or has been statistically stationary and therefore is assumed to represent the future characteristics of climatic drivers on our system. This assumption is obviously no longer justifiable. To address the characterisation of future weather, BC Hydro has a multi-year a directed research program with the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources that BC Hydro manages for hydropower generation and other uses. The objective of this program is to derive climate change adjusted meteorologic and hydrologic sequences suitable for use in system operations and planning studies. These climate-adjusted sequences then can be used to test system sensitivity to climate change scenarios relative to the baseline of the historical record. This paper describes BC Hydro's research program and the results achieved so far. (author)

  17. Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  18. What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grose, Michael R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Colman, Robert; Andrews, Timothy

    2018-02-01

    Transient climate response (TCR), transient response at 140 years (T140), and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) indices are intended as benchmarks for comparing the magnitude of climate response projected by climate models. It is generally assumed that TCR or T140 would explain more variability between models than ECS for temperature change over the 21st century, since this timescale is the realm of transient climate change. Here we find that TCR explains more variability across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 than ECS for global temperature change since preindustrial, for 50 or 100 year global trends up to the present, and for projected change under representative concentration pathways in regions of delayed warming such as the Southern Ocean. However, unexpectedly, we find that ECS correlates higher than TCR for projected change from the present in the global mean and in most regions. This higher correlation does not relate to aerosol forcing, and the physical cause requires further investigation.

  19. The American Climate Prospectus: a risk-centered analysis of the economic impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.; Houser, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Delgado, M.; Larsen, K.; Mohan, S.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Wilson, P. S.; Muir-Wood, R.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the climate risks posed to the United States' economy in six sectors - crop yields, energy demand, coastal property, crime, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. The ACP is unique in its characterization of the full probability distribution of economic impacts of climate change throughout the 21st century, making it an extremely useful basis for risk assessments. Three key innovations allow for this characterization. First, climate projections from CMIP5 models are scaled to a temperature probability distribution derived from a coarser climate model (MAGICC). This allows a more accurate representation of the whole distribution of future climates (in particular the tails) than a simple ensemble average. These are downscaled both temporally and spatially. Second, a set of local sea level rise and tropical cyclone projections are used in conjunction with the most detailed dataset of coastal property in the US in order to capture the risks of rising seas and storm surge. Third, we base many of our sectors on empirically-derived responses to temperature and precipitation. Each of these dose-response functions is resampled many times to populate a statistical distribution. Combining these with uncertainty in emissions scenario, climate model, and weather, we create the full probability distribution of climate impacts from county up to national levels, as well as model the effects upon the economy as a whole. Results are presented as likelihood ranges, as well as changes to return intervals of extreme events. The ACP analysis allows us to compare between sectors to understand the magnitude of required policy responses, and also to identify risks through time. Many sectors displaying large impacts at the end of the century, like those of mortality, have smaller changes in the near-term, due to non-linearities in the response functions. Other sectors, like

  20. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  1. The Health Impacts of Climate Change: Getting Started on a New Theme

    OpenAIRE

    Ebi, Kristie L.; Helmer, Madeleen; Vainio, Jari

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is widely acknowledged as a key global challenge for the 21st century, and is projected to significantly affect population health and human well-being. All of the climate change-related changes in weather patterns will affect human health, from boosting mental well-being to mortality from largescale disasters. Human health can be affected both directly and indirectly. For various reasons, the health sector has been slow in responding to the projected health impacts of climate c...

  2. Social and Economic Impact of the Candle Light Source Project Candle project impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baghiryan, M.

    Social and economic progress related to the realization of the CANDLE synchrotron light source creation project in Armenia is discussed. CANDLE service is multidisciplinary and long-lasting. Its impacts include significant improvement in science capacities, education quality, industrial capabilities, investment climate, country image, international relations, health level, restraining the "brain-drain", new workplaces, etc. CANDLE will serve as a universal national infrastructure assuring Armenia as a country with knowledge-based economy, a place for doing high-tech business, and be a powerful tool in achieving the country's jump forward in general.

  3. Climate-based seed zones for Mexico: guiding reforestation under observed and projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dante Castellanos-Acuña; Kenneth W. Vance-Borland; J. Bradley St. Clair; Andreas Hamann; Javier López-Upton; Erika Gómez-Pineda; Juan Manuel Ortega-Rodríguez; Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero

    2018-01-01

    Seed zones for forest tree species are a widely used tool in reforestation programs to ensure that seedlings are well adapted to their planting environments. Here, we propose a climate-based seed zone system for Mexico to address observed and projected climate change. The proposed seed zone classification is based on bands of climate variables often related to genetic...

  4. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-01-01

    Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

  5. Online Impact Prioritization of Essential Climate Variables on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Barkstrom, B. B.; Roberts, K. P.

    2007-12-01

    The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s NCDC Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Team has developed an online prototype that is capable of displaying the "big picture" perspective of all Essential Climate Variable (ECV) impacts on society and value to the IPCC. This prototype ECV-Model provides the ability to visualize global ECV information with options to drill down in great detail. It offers a quantifiable prioritization of ECV impacts that potentially may significantly enhance collaboration with respect to dealing effectively with climate change. The ECV-Model prototype assures anonymity and provides an online input mechanism for subject matter experts and decision makers to access, review and submit: (1) ranking of ECV"s, (2) new ECV's and associated impact categories and (3) feedback about ECV"s, satellites, etc. Input and feedback are vetted by experts before changes or additions are implemented online. The SDS prototype also provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of satellites; and general as well as detailed information in conjunction with imagery. NCDC's version 1.0 release will be available to the public and provide an easy "at-a-glance" interface to rapidly identify gaps and overlaps of satellites and associated instruments monitoring climate change ECV's. The SDS version 1.1 will enhance depiction of gaps and overlaps with instruments associated with In-Situ and Satellites related to ECVs. NOAA's SDS model empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in monitoring climate change ECV's and potentially significantly enhance collaboration.

  6. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  7. A projected decrease in lightning under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, Declan L.; Doherty, Ruth M.; Wild, Oliver; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Blyth, Alan M.

    2018-03-01

    Lightning strongly influences atmospheric chemistry1-3, and impacts the frequency of natural wildfires4. Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century1,5-7, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging8. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. Here, we compare lightning projections for 2100 using two parameterizations: the widely used cloud-top height (CTH) approach9, and a new upward cloud ice flux (IFLUX) approach10 that overcomes previous limitations. In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario. Differences are largest in the tropics, where most lightning occurs, with implications for the estimation of future changes in tropospheric ozone and methane, as well as differences in their radiative forcings. These results suggest that lightning schemes more closely related to cloud ice and microphysical processes are needed to robustly estimate future changes in lightning and atmospheric composition.

  8. Climatic impacts of anthropogenic aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iversen, T. [Oslo Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. Anthropogenic production of aerosols is mainly connected with combustion of fossil fuel. Measured by particulate mass, the anthropogenic sulphate production is the dominating source of aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere. Particles emitted in mechanical processes, fly ash etc. are less important because of their shorter atmospheric residence time. Possible climatological effects of anthropogenic aerosols are usually classified in two groups: direct and indirect. Direct effects are alterations of the radiative heating budget due to the aerosol particles in clear air. Indirect effects involve the interaction between particles and cloud processes. A simplified one-layer radiation model gave cooling in the most polluted mid-latitude areas and heating due to soot absorption in the Arctic. This differential trend in heating rates may have significant effects on atmospheric meridional circulations, which is important for the atmosphere as a thermodynamic system. Recently the description of sulphur chemistry in the hemispheric scale dispersion model has been improved and will be used in a model for Mie scattering and absorption

  9. Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the Maasai of ... and vulnerability to climate variability and climate change is assessed, using data ... Model results suggest that the ecosystem is quite resilient and suggests that ...

  10. Future directions in climate modeling: A climate impacts perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mearns, L.O.

    1990-01-01

    One of the most serious impediments to further progress on the determination of specific impacts of climate change on relevant earth systems is the lack of precise and accurate scenarios of regional change. Spatial resolution of models is generally coarse (5-10 degree, corresponding to 550-1,100 km), and the modeling of physical processes is quite crude. Three main areas in which improvements in the modeling of physical processes are being made are modeling of surface processes, modeling of oceans and coupling of oceans and atmospheric models, and modeling of clouds. Improvements are required in the modeling of surface hydrology and vegetative effects, which have significant impact on the albedo scheme used. Oceans are important in climate modeling for the following reasons: delay of warming due to oceanic heat absorption; effect of mean meridional circulation; control of regional patterns of sea surface temperatures and sea ice by wind driven currents; absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the oceans; and determination of interannual climatic variability via variability in sea surface temperature. The effects of clouds on radiation balance is highly significant. Clouds both reflect shortwave radiation and trap longwave radiation. Most cloud properties are sub-grid scale and thus difficult to include explicitly in models. 25 refs., 1 tab

  11. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yator, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    This study sought to address the existing gap on the impact of climate change on food security in support of policy measures to avert famine catastrophes. Fixed and random effects regressions for crop food security were estimated. The study simulated the expected impact of future climate change on food insecurity based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCPs). The study makes use of county-level yields estimates (beans, maize, millet and sorghum) and daily climate data (1971 to 2010). Climate variability affects food security irrespective of how food security is defined. Rainfall during October-November-December (OND), as well as during March-April-May (MAM) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with most food crops; the effects are most pronounced for maize and sorghum. Beans and Millet are found to be largely unresponsive to climate variability and also to time-invariant factors. OND rains and fall and summer temperature exhibit a U-shaped relationship with yields for most crops, while MAM rains temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, winter temperatures exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with most crops. Project future climate change scenarios on crop productivity show that climate change will adversely affect food security, with up to 69% decline in yields by the year 2100. Climate variables have a non-linear relationship with food insecurity. Temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with food insecurity, suggesting that increased temperatures will increase crop food insecurity. However, maize and millet, benefit from increased summer and winter temperatures. The simulated effects of different climate change scenarios on food insecurity suggest that adverse climate change will increase food insecurity in Kenya. The largest increases in food insecurity are predicted for the RCP 8.5Wm2, compared to RCP 4.5Wm2. Climate change is likely to have the greatest effects on maize insecurity, which is likely

  12. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  13. Climate change impact on river flows in Chitral watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakir, A.S.; Rehman, H.U.; Ehsan, S.

    2010-01-01

    The impact of climate change has always been very important for water resources in the world. In countries like Pakistan where different weather conditions exist, the effects of climate change can be more crucial. Generally, the climate changes are considered in terms of global warming i.e. increase in the average temperature of earth's near surface air. The global warming can have a strong impact on river flows in Pakistan. This may be due to the melting of snow and glaciers at a higher rate and changes in precipitation patterns. Glaciers in Pakistan cover about 13,680 km/sup 2/, which is 13% of the mountainous regions of the Upper Indus Basin. Glacier and Snow melt water from these glaciers contributes significantly to the river flows in Pakistan. Due to climate change, the changes in temperature and the amount of precipitation could have diversified effects on river flows of arid and semi-arid regions of Pakistan. This paper reviews the existing research studies on climate change impact on water resources of Pakistan. The past trend of river flows in Pakistan has been discussed with respect to the available data. Further, different projections about future climate changes in terms of glacier melting and changes in temperature and precipitation have also been taken into consideration in order to qualitatively assess the future trend of river flows in Pakistan. As a case study, the flows were generated for the Chitral watershed using UBC Watershed Model. Model was calibrated for the year 2002, which is an average flow year. Model results show good agreement between simulated and observed flows. UBC watershed model was applied to a climate change scenario of 1 deg. C increase in temperature and 15% decrease in glaciated area. Results of the study reveal that the flows were decreased by about 4.2 %. (author)

  14. Climatic impact of aircraft induced ozone changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sausen, R; Feneberg, B; Ponater, M [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1998-12-31

    The effect of aircraft induced ozone changes on the global climate is studied by means of the general circulation model ECHAM4. The zonal mean temperature signal is considered. In order to estimate the statistical significance of the climatic impact a multivariate statistical test hierarchy combined with the fingerprint method has been applied. Sensitivity experiments show a significant coherent temperature response pattern in the northern extra-tropics for mid-latitude summer conditions. It consists of a tropospheric warming of about 0.2 K with a corresponding stratospheric cooling of the same magnitude. (author) 16 refs.

  15. Climatic impact of aircraft induced ozone changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sausen, R.; Feneberg, B.; Ponater, M. [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    The effect of aircraft induced ozone changes on the global climate is studied by means of the general circulation model ECHAM4. The zonal mean temperature signal is considered. In order to estimate the statistical significance of the climatic impact a multivariate statistical test hierarchy combined with the fingerprint method has been applied. Sensitivity experiments show a significant coherent temperature response pattern in the northern extra-tropics for mid-latitude summer conditions. It consists of a tropospheric warming of about 0.2 K with a corresponding stratospheric cooling of the same magnitude. (author) 16 refs.

  16. The impacts of climate change in Aquitaine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Treut, Herve; Baldi, Isabelle; Bonneton, Philippe; Budzinski, Helene; Caill-Milly, Nathalie; D'Amico, Frank; Dupuy, Alain; Etcheber, Henri; Grousset, Francis; Kremer, Antoine; Ollat, Nathalie; Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Prouzet, Patrick; Salles, Denis; Sautour, Benoit; Villenave, Eric

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a book which addresses the impacts of climate change in the Aquitaine region by 2030-2050 in order to prepare the adaptation of the main economic sectors. Several fields are addressed: agriculture and wine-growing, forestry, estuaries, coasts and sea resources. The book examines two aspects of climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions: mitigation and adaptation. Two scenarios are studied: a global temperature increase of 2 degrees, and a global temperature increase between 4 and 5 degrees. As examples of this study, this article gives an overview of these issues of mitigation and adaptation in four domains: forests, wine-growing, air quality, and health

  17. Overview of the Kenya country studies on Climate Change Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gacuhi, R.A.

    1998-01-01

    The general objective of the Kenya country study on climate change was to make a contribution to the global efforts of finding a solution to climatic change problem.The specific objectives were, Contribute to the development of national capacity to handle climatic changes issues, Assess the country's contribution to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG's), Evaluate the vulnerability of various sensitive sectors to impacts of climate change, Generate information useful to the development of an overall national policy on climate change, Lay a foundation for development of national action plans and national communication required under the UNFCCC

  18. Climate Change Impacts on Future Wave Climate around the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William G. Bennett

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the changes in future storm wave climate is crucial for coastal managers and planners to make informed decisions required for sustainable coastal management and for the renewable energy industry. To investigate potential future changes to storm climate around the UK, global wave model outputs of two time slice experiments were analysed with 1979–2009 representing present conditions and 2075–2100 representing the future climate. Three WaveNet buoy sites around the United Kingdom, which represent diverse site conditions and have long datasets, were chosen for this study. A storm event definition (Dissanayake et al., 2015 was used to separate meteorologically-independent storm events from wave data, which in turn allowed storm wave characteristics to be analysed. Model outputs were validated through a comparison of the modelled storm data with observed storm data for overlapping periods. Although no consistent trends across all future clusters were observed, there were no significant increases in storm wave height, storm count or storm power in the future, at least according to the global wave projection results provided by the chosen model.

  19. The Cloud Project Climate Research with Accelerators

    CERN Document Server

    Kirkby, Jasper

    2010-01-01

    The current understanding of climate change in the in- dustrial age is that it is predominantly caused by anthro- pogenic greenhouse gases, with relatively small natural contributions due to solar irradiance and volcanoes. How- ever, palaeoclimatic reconstructions show that the climate has frequently varied on 100-year time scales during the Holocene (last 10 kyr) by amounts comparable to the present warming—and yet the mechanism is not under- stood. Estimated changes of solar irradiance on these time scales are too small to account for the climate observations. This raises the question of whether cosmic rays, which are modulated by the solar wind, may be directly affect- ing the climate, providing an effective indirect solar forcing mechanism. Indeed recent satellite observations—although disputed—suggest that cosmic rays may affect clouds un- der certain conditions. However, given the many sources of variability in the atmosphere and the lack of control of the cosmic ray flux, demonstrating overall ca...

  20. Impact of climate change on Gironde estuary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laborie, Vanessya; Hissel, Francois; Sergent, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Within the THESEUS European project, a simplified mathematical model for storm surge levels in the Bay of Biscay was adjusted on 10 events at Le Verdon using wind and pressure fields from CLM/SGA, so that the water levels at Le Verdon have the same statistic quantiles as observed tide records for the period [1960-2000]. A numerical model of the Gironde Estuary was used to evaluate future water levels at 6 locations of the estuary from Le Verdon to Bordeaux and to assess the changes in the quantiles of water levels during the 21. century using ONERC's pessimistic scenario for sea level rise (60 cm). The analysis of future storm surge levels shows a decrease in their quantiles at Le Verdon,, whereas there is an increase of the quantiles of total water levels. This increase is smaller than the sea level rise and gets even smaller as one enters farther upstream in the estuary. A series of flood maps for different return periods between 2 and 100 years and for four time periods ([1960-1999], [2010-2039], [2040-2069] and [2070-2099]) have been built for the region of Bordeaux. Quantiles of water levels in the flood plain have also been calculated. The impact of climate change on the evolution of flooded areas in the Gironde Estuary and on quantiles of water levels in the flood plain mainly depends on the sea level rise. Areas which are not currently flooded for low return periods will be inundated in 2100. The influence of river discharges and dike breaching should also be taken into account for more accurate results. (authors)

  1. Impact of climate change on Gironde Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laborie, Vanessya; Hissel, François; Sergent, Philippe

    2014-05-01

    Within the THESEUS European project, a simplified mathematical model for storm surge levels in the Bay of Biscay was adjusted on 10 events at Le Verdon using wind and pressure fields from CLM/SGA, so that the water levels at Le Verdon have the same statistic quantiles as observed tide records for the period [1960-2000]. The analysis of future storm surge levels shows a decrease in their quantiles at Le Verdon, whereas there is an increase of the quantiles of total water levels. This increase is smaller than the sea level rise and gets even smaller as one enters farther upstream in the estuary. A numerical model of the Gironde Estuary was then used to evaluate future water levels at 6 locations of the estuary from Le Verdon to Bordeaux and to assess the changes in the quantiles of water levels during the XXIst century using ONERC's pessimistic scenario for sea level rise (60 cm). The model was fed by several data sources : wind fields at Royan and Mérignac interpolated from the grid of the European Climatolologic Model CLM/SGA, a tide signal at Le Verdon, the discharges of Garonne (at La Réole), the Dordogne (at Pessac) and Isle (at Libourne). A series of flood maps for different return periods between 2 and 100 years and for four time periods ([1960-1999], [2010-2039], [2040-2069] and [2070-2099]) have been built for the region of Bordeaux. Quantiles of water levels in the floodplain have also been calculated. The impact of climate change on the evolution of flooded areas in the Gironde Estuary and on quantiles of water levels in the floodplain mainly depends on the sea level rise. Areas which are not currently flooded for low return periods will be inundated in 2100. The influence of river discharges and dike breaching should also be taken into account for more accurate results.

  2. Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory K. Silber

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere. The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately

  3. Human activity and climate variability project - annual report 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chambers, S.; Harle, K.J.; Sharmeen, S.; Zahorowski, W.; Cohen, D.; Heijnis, H.; Henderson-Sellers, A

    2002-01-01

    Work is well underway on identifying the spatial and temporal extent, direction and range of trace element transport across Tasmania through analysis of lake sediments; A follow up investigation of sedimentation and pollution in the Nattai River catchment following the devastating 2001 bushfires in the region has been completed; The project has been extended to include investigations of evidence of human impacts in the highly sensitive and ecologically important Great Lakes of coastal NSW. This has involved the expansion of our collaboration to include Geoscience Australia; Contributions have been made to the IGBP HITE project. Further contributions will be made as the evidence gathered is drawn together and interpreted; Over the coming year, focus will be placed on completion of the investigation of the extent of aerial transport of trace elements across Tasmania over the last 200 years as well as evidence for human activity and impacts on the Great Lakes region of NSW. Further investigation of potential climate signals from sites in northern Australia will also be made. The first 12 months of data for all ACE-Asia radon and fine particle sites is now available with preliminary analyses performed; The seasonal variability of background radon concentration at each of the radon monitoring sites has been characterised for the available data; Major components related to industrial pollution and soil sources in China have been identified and quantified; Regional and seasonal variations and trends in aerosol constituents have been measured and compared across more than 2.8Mk 2 of sampling area; The Hok Tsui and Kosan detectors were visited for general maintenance and recalibration; A grant application to the APN has been submitted in support of regional inventory analyses based on radon time series; Progress on the processing and interpretation of radon data was presented at the Cape Grim Science Meeting (6-7 February 2002) and the 7th Biennial SPERA Conference on

  4. Human activity and climate variability project - annual report 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambers, S; Harle, K J; Sharmeen, S; Zahorowski, W; Cohen, D; Heijnis, H; Henderson-Sellers, A [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Menai, NSW (Australia)

    2002-07-01

    Work is well underway on identifying the spatial and temporal extent, direction and range of trace element transport across Tasmania through analysis of lake sediments; A follow up investigation of sedimentation and pollution in the Nattai River catchment following the devastating 2001 bushfires in the region has been completed; The project has been extended to include investigations of evidence of human impacts in the highly sensitive and ecologically important Great Lakes of coastal NSW. This has involved the expansion of our collaboration to include Geoscience Australia; Contributions have been made to the IGBP HITE project. Further contributions will be made as the evidence gathered is drawn together and interpreted; Over the coming year, focus will be placed on completion of the investigation of the extent of aerial transport of trace elements across Tasmania over the last 200 years as well as evidence for human activity and impacts on the Great Lakes region of NSW. Further investigation of potential climate signals from sites in northern Australia will also be made. The first 12 months of data for all ACE-Asia radon and fine particle sites is now available with preliminary analyses performed; The seasonal variability of background radon concentration at each of the radon monitoring sites has been characterised for the available data; Major components related to industrial pollution and soil sources in China have been identified and quantified; Regional and seasonal variations and trends in aerosol constituents have been measured and compared across more than 2.8Mk{sup 2} of sampling area; The Hok Tsui and Kosan detectors were visited for general maintenance and recalibration; A grant application to the APN has been submitted in support of regional inventory analyses based on radon time series; Progress on the processing and interpretation of radon data was presented at the Cape Grim Science Meeting (6-7 February 2002) and the 7th Biennial SPERA Conference on

  5. Future bloom and blossom frost risk for Malus domestica considering climate model and impact model uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K(-1), showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

  6. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels

    2016-01-01

    protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from......We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology,and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood...... research advances and projections for the future are updated....

  7. The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030, and the potential from rapid, inclusive and climate-informed development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

    2016-12-01

    There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is

  8. Socio-economic Impact of Sethusamudram Project

    OpenAIRE

    Kannan, Srinivasan

    2007-01-01

    Any major development project has both benefits and disadvantages to the society. Many development projects have very high economic benefit and at the same time lead to environmental hazard. One such project is Sethudamudram project initiated by Government of India. This is a project which aims at minimising the distance of navigation for the goods transport in the sea. This paper is an attempt to study the socio-economic impact of the project based on the secondary data.

  9. Specific climate impact of passenger and freight transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Emissions of short-lived species contribute significantly to : the climate impact of transportation. The magnitude of the effects : varies over time for each transport mode. This paper compares : first the absolute climate impacts of current passenge...

  10. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

    1998-01-01

    .... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

  11. Environmental impacts of wind-energy projects

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Environmental Impacts of Wind Energy Projects; National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... Environmental Impacts of Wind-Energy Projects offers an analysis of the environmental benefits and drawbacks of wind energy, along with an evaluation guide to aid decision-making about projects...

  12. Burden Sharing with Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D.; De Cian, E.; Marangoni, G.; Hof, A.

    2014-12-01

    Efficiency and equity have been at the center of the climate change policy making since the very first international environmental agreements on climate change, though over time how to implement these principles has taken different forms. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have also shown that the economic effort of achieving a 2 degree target in a cost-effective way would differ widely across regions (Tavoni et al. 2013) because of diverse economic and energy structure, baseline emissions, energy and carbon intensity. Policy instruments, such as a fully-fledged, global emission trading schemes can be used to pursuing efficiency and equity at the same time but the literature has analyzed the compensations required to redistribute only mitigation costs. However, most of these studies have neglected the potential impacts of climate change. In this paper we use two integrated assessment models -FAIR and WITCH- to explore the 2°C policy space when accounting for climate change impacts. Impacts are represented via two different reduced forms equations, which despite their simplicity allows us exploring the key sensitivities- Our results show that in a 2 degree stabilization scenarios residual damages remain significant (see Figure 1) and that if you would like to compensate those as part of an equal effort scheme - this would lead to a different allocation than focusing on a mitigation based perspective only. The residual damages and adaptation costs are not equally distributed - and while we do not cover the full uncertainty space - with 2 different models and 2 sets of damage curves we are still able to show quite similar results in terms of vulnerable regions and the relative position of the different scenarios. Therefore, accounting for the residual damages and the associated adaptation costs on top of the mitigation burden increases and redistributes the full burden of total climate change.

  13. Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Hayes, M.; Duce, P.; Trnka, Miroslav; Svoboda, M.; Zara, P.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 5 (2014), s. 1907-1919 ISSN 1436-3798 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * mediteranean * global climate models * temperature * precipitation * drought * palmer drought severity index * weather generator Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.628, year: 2014

  14. Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

    2012-05-01

    The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

  15. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

  16. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-11-07

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

  17. Climate Change Impacts on the Congo Basin Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Franssen, W.; Jans, W.W.P.; Kruijt, B.; Supit, I.

    2012-01-01

    This report presents analyses of climate change impacts in the Congo Basin on water for agriculture and hydropower, forest ecosystem functioning and carbon storage and impacts of climate variability and change on future economic development. To quantify the impacts of future climate we developed a

  18. Modelling climate change impacts on stream habitat conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, Eva; Conallin, John; Karthikeyan, Matheswaran

    Impact from groundwater abstraction on freshwater resources and ecosystems is an issue of sincere concern in Denmark and many other countries worldwide. In addition, climate change projections add complexity to the existing conflict between water demands to satisfy human needs and water demands...... required to conserve streams as biologically diverse and healthy ecosystems. Solutions to this intensifying conflict require a holistic approach whereby stream biota is related to their physical environment at catchment scale, as also demanded by the EU Water Framework Directive. In the present study......, climate impacts on stream ecological conditions were quantified by combining a heat and mass stream flow with a habitat suitability modelling approach. Habitat suitability indices were developed for stream velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrate. Generally, water depth was found...

  19. Climate change impacts on coffee rust disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonsi, W. M. V.; Koga-Vicente, A.; Pinto, H. S.; Alfonsi, E. L., Sr.; Coltri, P. P.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Patricio, F. R.; Avila, A. M. H. D.; Gonçalves, R. R. D. V.

    2016-12-01

    Changes in climate conditions and in extreme weather events may affect the food security due to impacts in agricultural production. Despite several researches have been assessed the impacts of extremes in yield crops in climate change scenarios, there is the need to consider the effects in pests and diseases which increase losses in the sector. Coffee Arabica is an important commodity in world and plays a key role in Brazilian agricultural exports. Although the coffee crop has a world highlight, its yield is affected by several factors abiotic or biotic. The weather as well pests and diseases directly influence the development and coffee crop yield. These problems may cause serious damage with significant economic impacts. The coffee rust, caused by the fungus Hemileia vastarix,is among the diseases of greatest impact for the crop. The disease emerged in Brazil in the 70s and is widely spread in all producing regions of coffee in Brazil, and in the world. Regions with favorable weather conditions for the pathogen may exhibit losses ranging from 30% to 50% of the total grain production. The evaluation of extreme weather events of coffee rust disease in futures scenarios was carried out using the climatic data from CMIP5 models, data field of coffee rust disease incidence and, incubation period simulation data for Brazilian municipalities. Two Regional Climate Models were selected, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5, and the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 w/m2 was adopted. The outcomes pointed out that in these scenarios the period of incubation tends to decrease affecting the coffee rust disease incidence, which tends to increase. Nevertheless, the changing in average trends tends to benefit the reproduction of the pathogen. Once the temperature threshold for the disease reaches the adverse conditions it may be unfavorable for the incidence.

  20. Improving Climate Projections by Understanding How Cloud Phase affects Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesana, Gregory; Storelvmo, Trude

    2017-01-01

    Whether a cloud is predominantly water or ice strongly influences interactions between clouds and radiation coming down from the Sun or up from the Earth. Being able to simulate cloud phase transitions accurately in climate models based on observational data sets is critical in order to improve confidence in climate projections, because this uncertainty contributes greatly to the overall uncertainty associated with cloud-climate feedbacks. Ultimately, it translates into uncertainties in Earth's sensitivity to higher CO2 levels. While a lot of effort has recently been made toward constraining cloud phase in climate models, more remains to be done to document the radiative properties of clouds according to their phase. Here we discuss the added value of a new satellite data set that advances the field by providing estimates of the cloud radiative effect as a function of cloud phase and the implications for climate projections.

  1. Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisaveta P. Petkova

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

  2. Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Bader, Daniel A.; Anderson, G. Brooke; Horton, Radley M.; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2014-01-01

    Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

  3. Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2014-03-01

    The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.

  4. The climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data infrastructure to impact users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Pagé, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Cofiño, Antonio; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin

    2015-04-01

    The aim of climate4impact is to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 21 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. It has been developed within the European projects IS-ENES and IS-ENES2 for more than 5 years, and its development currently continues within IS-ENES2 and CLIPC. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. This work has resulted in the ENES portal interface for climate impact communities and can be visited at www.climate4impact.eu. The climate4impact is connected to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and regional climate model data (RCM) data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services using OpenID, and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. A challenging task was to describe the available model data and how it can be used. The portal tries to inform users about possible caveats when using climate model data. All impact use cases are described in the documentation section, using highlighted keywords pointing to detailed information in the glossary. During the project, the content management system Drupal was used to enable partners to contribute on the documentation section. In this presentation the architecture and following items will be detailed: - Visualization: Visualize data from ESGF data nodes using ADAGUC Web Map Services. - Processing: Transform data, subset, export into other formats, and perform climate indices calculations using

  5. The IS-ENES climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data to impact users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten; Page, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Santiago Cofiño Gonzalez, Antonio

    2015-04-01

    The aim of climate4impact (climate4impact.eu) is to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 17 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. It has been developed within the IS-ENES European project and is currently operated and further developed in the IS ENES2 project. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. Climate4impact is connected to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and regional climate model data (RCM) data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services using OpenID, and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. A challenging task is to describe the available model data and how it can be used. The portal informs users about possible caveats when using climate model data. All impact use cases are described in the documentation section, using highlighted keywords pointing to detailed information in the glossary. Climate4impact currently has two main objectives. The first one is to work on a web interface which automatically generates a graphical user interface on WPS endpoints. The WPS calculates climate indices and subset data using OpenClimateGIS/icclim on data stored in ESGF data nodes. Data is then transmitted from ESGF nodes over secured OpenDAP and becomes available in a new, per user, secured OpenDAP server. The results can then be visualized again using ADAGUC WMS. Dedicated wizards for processing of climate indices will be developed in close

  6. Environmental impact assessment of Kachchh tidal power project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadav, Ramanand; Lal, B.B.

    1995-01-01

    The Kachchh tidal power development project is a single-basin, single -effect and ebb generation development by construction of a tidal power barrage of about 3.25 km length across Hansthal creek. The project may disturb the ecosystem of the region. The paper deals in detail the environmental impacts of the project on climate, water velocity, flow and sedimentation pattern, water quality, flora and fauna, fishery, tourism and recreation, wild life, public health and socio-economic conditions. (author). 4 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  7. Economic perspectives on the impact of climate variability and change: A summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timmerman, P.; Grima, A.P.

    1988-01-01

    A summary is presented of a collection of papers on the economic methodologies applicable to studies of the impact of global climate variability and change. The research was sponsored by the Canadian Climate program and was conducted as part of a project investigating the potential impacts on various sectors of the Canadian economy of climate warming due to the greenhouse effect. Topics of the papers include microeconomic analysis, benefit/cost analysis, input-output analysis, policy options regarding water levels in the Great Lakes, the scenario approach to assessing socio-economic sensitivities to climate change in the agri-food sector, and analysis of weather impacts. Several analytical tools are seen to be readily applicable to economic analyses of the effects of climate change, and issues of future water supply and demand are seen as central to climate impact assessment, and of particular concern to Canada

  8. Adapting to the impacts of climate change and variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortsch, L.; Koshida, G.; Tavares, D.

    1993-05-01

    A workshop was held to encourage awareness of the climate change impact issues and build collaboration among the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence basin (GLSLB) research, resource management, and policy-making community; to identify research opportunities to address the issues of water management, ecosystem health, human health, and land use and management; and to recommend directions and priority areas for future studies to develop an integrated climate impact assessment for the GLSLB. Presentations at the workshop were on topics including an overview of the GLSLB Project, the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand, and impacts on water quality, fisheries, wetlands, agriculture, shoreline management, and human health. Panel sessions were also convened to discuss information requirements that would assist in decision- and policy-making and to address the concept of integration. Working groups on water management, ecosystem health, land use and management, and human health were formed and made recommendations. A synthesis is presented of the reports from and recommendations of the four working groups as well as extended abstracts of the plenary presentations. A separate abstract has been prepared for one of the presentations from this workshop

  9. Focus on Agriculture and Forestry Benefits of Reducing Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objective of this focus issue is to present the methods and results of modeling exercises that estimate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry under a consistent set of climate projections that represent futures with and without global-scale GHG mitigation....

  10. Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Southeastern Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switanek, Matt; Truhetz, Heimo; Reszler, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Floods in southeastern Austria can cause significant damage to life, property and infrastructure. These flood events are often the result of extreme precipitation from small-scale convective storms. In order to more accurately model the changes to flood magnitude and frequency, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) must be able to simulate small-scale convective storms similar to those that have been observed. Even as computational resources have increased, RCMs are just now achieving the high spatial and temporal scales necessary to physically resolve the processes that govern small-scale convection. With increased resolution, RCMs can rely on their internal physics to model convective precipitation and need not depend on parameterization. This study uses historical and future scenarios of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) run at a spatial scale of 3 km and temporal scale of 1 hr. In order to subsequently force a hydrological flood model, the sub-daily precipitation and temperature data from the RCMs are first bias corrected. A newly proposed bias correction method is presented and compared to the commonly used quantile mapping. The proposed bias correction method performs better in its ability to preserve the model projected climate change signal (measured by changes in mean and variance). Lastly, the changes in the quantity and frequency of projected extreme precipitation, at the watershed level, are analyzed with respect to the historic time period. With these improvements in dynamical modeling and bias correction methods, a clearer picture emerges revealing the more likely impacts climate change will have on floods in southeastern Austria.

  11. Managing uncertainty in flood protection planning with climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Schoppa, Lukas; Straub, Daniel

    2018-04-01

    Technical flood protection is a necessary part of integrated strategies to protect riverine settlements from extreme floods. Many technical flood protection measures, such as dikes and protection walls, are costly to adapt after their initial construction. This poses a challenge to decision makers as there is large uncertainty in how the required protection level will change during the measure lifetime, which is typically many decades long. Flood protection requirements should account for multiple future uncertain factors: socioeconomic, e.g., whether the population and with it the damage potential grows or falls; technological, e.g., possible advancements in flood protection; and climatic, e.g., whether extreme discharge will become more frequent or not. This paper focuses on climatic uncertainty. Specifically, we devise methodology to account for uncertainty associated with the use of discharge projections, ultimately leading to planning implications. For planning purposes, we categorize uncertainties as either visible, if they can be quantified from available catchment data, or hidden, if they cannot be quantified from catchment data and must be estimated, e.g., from the literature. It is vital to consider the hidden uncertainty, since in practical applications only a limited amount of information (e.g., a finite projection ensemble) is available. We use a Bayesian approach to quantify the visible uncertainties and combine them with an estimate of the hidden uncertainties to learn a joint probability distribution of the parameters of extreme discharge. The methodology is integrated into an optimization framework and applied to a pre-alpine case study to give a quantitative, cost-optimal recommendation on the required amount of flood protection. The results show that hidden uncertainty ought to be considered in planning, but the larger the uncertainty already present, the smaller the impact of adding more. The recommended planning is robust to moderate changes in

  12. Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagener, Thorsten [Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom); Mann, Michael [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Crane, Robert [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)

    2014-04-29

    This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach to establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.

  13. Climate Change Impacts on Worldwide Coffee Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, T.; Rising, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Coffee (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) plays a vital role in many countries' economies, providing necessary income to 25 million members of tropical countries, and supporting a $81 billion industry, making it one of the most valuable commodities in the world. At the same time, coffee is at the center of many issues of sustainability. It is vulnerable to climate change, with disease outbreaks becoming more common and suitable regions beginning to shift. We develop a statistical production model for coffee which incorporates temperature, precipitation, frost, and humidity effects using a new database of worldwide coffee production. We then use this model to project coffee yields and production into the future based on a variety of climate forecasts. This model can then be used together with a market model to forecast the locations of future coffee production as well as future prices, supply, and demand.

  14. Climate change projections for Tamil Nadu, India: deriving high-resolution climate data by a downscaling approach using PRECIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bal, Prasanta Kumar; Ramachandran, A.; Geetha, R.; Bhaskaran, B.; Thirumurugan, P.; Indumathi, J.; Jayanthi, N.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, we present regional climate change projections for the Tamil Nadu state of India, simulated by the Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model. The model is run at 25 km horizontal resolution driven by lateral boundary conditions generated by a perturbed physical ensemble of 17 simulations produced by a version of Hadley Centre coupled climate model, known as HadCM3Q under A1B scenario. The large scale features of these 17 simulations were evaluated for the target region to choose lateral boundary conditions from six members that represent a range of climate variations over the study region. The regional climate, known as PRECIS, was then run 130 years from 1970. The analyses primarily focus on maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall over the region. For the Tamil Nadu as a whole, the projections of maximum temperature show an increase of 1.0, 2.2 and 3.1 °C for the periods 2020s (2005-2035), 2050s (2035-2065) and 2080s (2065-2095), respectively, with respect to baseline period (1970-2000). Similarly, the projections of minimum temperature show an increase of 1.1, 2.4 and 3.5 °C, respectively. This increasing trend is statistically significant (Mann-Kendall trend test). The annual rainfall projections for the same periods indicate a general decrease in rainfall of about 2-7, 1-4 and 4-9 %, respectively. However, significant exceptions are noticed over some pockets of western hilly areas and high rainfall areas where increases in rainfall are seen. There are also indications of increasing heavy rainfall events during the northeast monsoon season and a slight decrease during the southwest monsoon season. Such an approach of using climate models may maximize the utility of high-resolution climate change information for impact-adaptation-vulnerability assessments.

  15. Contribution of Temperature to Chilean Droughts Using Ensemble Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Alfieri, L.; Naumann, G.; Garreaud, R. D.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation deficit is traditionally considered as the main driver of drought events, however the evolution of drought conditions is also influenced by other variables such as temperature, wind speed and evapotranspiration. In view of global warming, the effect of rising temperatures may lead to increased socio-economic drought impacts, particularly in vulnerable developing countries. In this work, we used two drought indices to analyze the impacts of precipitation and temperature on the frequency, severity and duration of Chilean droughts (25°S-56°S) during the XXI century, using multi-model climate projections consistent with the high-end RCP 8.5 scenario. An ensemble of seven global CMIP5 simulations were used to drive the Earth System Model EC-EARTH3-HR v3.1 over the 1976-2100 period, in order to increase the spatial resolution from the original grid to 0.35°. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to describe the impact of precipitation on drought conditions, while the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to assess the effect of temperature -throughout changes in potential evapotranspiration- on drought characteristics at different time scales. Drought indices along with duration, severity and frequency of drought events were computed for a 30-year baseline period (1976-2005) and then compared to three 30-year periods representing short, medium and long-term scenarios (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). Indices obtained from climate simulations during the baseline period were compared against the corresponding values derived from ground observations. Results obtained with SPI-12 reveal a progressive decrease in precipitation in Chile, which is consistent through all climate models, though each of them shows a different spatial pattern. Simulations based on SPEI-12 show that the expected increase in evaporative demand (driven by the temperature increase) for the region is likely to exacerbate the severity and

  16. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, G; Stone, D

    2016-01-01

    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts...

  17. How weather impacts the forced climate response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirtman, Ben P. [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Schneider, Edwin K.; Straus, David M. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Min, Dughong; Burgman, Robert [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States)

    2011-12-15

    The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870-1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500 mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. In terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control. (orig.)

  18. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

  19. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

    2017-10-01

    We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Simulated Climate Impacts of Mexico City's Historical Urban Expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson-Lira, Valeria

    Urbanization, a direct consequence of land use and land cover change, is responsible for significant modification of local to regional scale climates. It is projected that the greatest urban growth of this century will occur in urban areas in the developing world. In addition, there is a significant research gap in emerging nations concerning this topic. Thus, this research focuses on the assessment of climate impacts related to urbanization on the largest metropolitan area in Latin America: Mexico City. Numerical simulations using a state-of-the-science regional climate model are utilized to address a trio of scientifically relevant questions with wide global applicability. The importance of an accurate representation of land use and land cover is first demonstrated through comparison of numerical simulations against observations. Second, the simulated effect of anthropogenic heating is quantified. Lastly, numerical simulations are performed using pre-historic scenarios of land use and land cover to examine and quantify the impact of Mexico City's urban expansion and changes in surface water features on its regional climate.

  1. Climate Change and Impacts Research Experiences for Urban Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Rosenzweig, C.; Austin, S. A.; Peteet, D. M.; Druyan, L.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Scalzo, F.; Frost, J.; Moshary, F.; Greenbaum, S.; Cheung, T. K.; Howard, A.; Steiner, J. C.; Johnson, L. P.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change and impacts research for undergraduate urban students is the focus of the Center for Global Climate Research (CGCR). We describe student research and significant results obtained during the Summer 2011. The NSF REU site, is a collaboration between the City University of New York (CUNY) and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The research teams are mentored by NASA scientists and CUNY faculty. Student projects include: Effects of Stratospheric Aerosols on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin; Comparison of Aerosol Optical Depth and Angstrom Exponent Retrieved by AERONET, MISR, and MODIS Measurements; White Roofs to the Rescue: Combating the Urban Heat Island Effect; Tropospheric Ozone Investigations in New York City; Carbon Sequestration with Climate Change in Alaskan Peatlands; Validating Regional Climate Models for Western Sub-Sahara Africa; Bio-Remediation of Toxic Waste Sites: Mineral Characteristics of Cyanide-Treated Mining Waste; Assessment of an Ocean Mixing Parameterization for Climate Studies; Comparative Wind Speed through Doppler Sounding with Pulsed Infrared LIDAR; and Satellite Telemetry and Communications. The CGCR also partners with the New York City Research Initiative (NYCRI) at GISS. The center is supported by NSF ATM-0851932 and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA).

  2. Climate change impacts on boundary and transboundary water management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruce, J.P.; Martin, H.; Colucci, P. [Global Change Strategies International, Ottawa, ON (Canada); McBean, G. [Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Toronto, ON (Canada); McDougall, J.; Shrubsole, D.; Whalley, J. [Western Ontario Univ., London, ON (Canada); Halliday, R. [R. Halliday and Associates, Saskatoon, SK (Canada); Alden, M.; Mortsch, L.; Mills, B. [Environment Canada, Downsview, ON (Canada). Meteorological Service of Canada; Coleman, C.; Zhang, Y.; Jia, J.; Porco, M.; Henstra, S.

    2003-06-30

    Climate change will have an impact on water cycles, with increased river flows in some areas, and decreased river flows in others. This report focuses on climate change related issues of water management in boundary and transboundary areas between Canada and the United States. Water resources in these areas are governed by agreements between provinces, territories and the federal governments of Canada and the United States. The Climate Change Action Fund and Natural Resources Canada launched a project through a partnership between the Global Change Strategies International (GCSI), the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (ICLR) and the Meteorological Services of Canada (MSC). The objective was to address potential difficulties in water management resources within North America. This report presents the results of the collaboration. It includes climate scenarios and climate model outputs on future temperature and precipitation by 2050, under a range of emission scenarios. It also includes an analysis of Canada-United States transboundary water instruments for vulnerability to climate change, as well as perceptions of fairness in allocating water in the Saskatchewan River Basin. This report also includes a review of the terms of existing Treaties and Agreements of 11 river basins between Canada and the United States on boundary and transboundary waters. The report concludes that it is very likely that much of Canada will see increased intense precipitation events while the interior regions will have increased risk of drought. These two projections will have major implications for river flows and the management of water resource. Seven recommendations were presented to ensure that water is allocated fairly and responsibly. refs., tabs., figs.

  3. Projections of the effects of climate change on allergic asthma : the contribution of aerobiology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cecchi, L.; D'Amato, G.; Ayres, J. G.; Galan, C.; Forastiere, F.; Forsberg, B.; Gerritsen, J.; Nunes, C.; Behrendt, H.; Akdis, C.; Dahl, R.; Annesi-Maesano, I.

    Climate change is unequivocal and represents a possible threat for patients affected by allergic conditions. It has already had an impact on living organisms, including plants and fungi with current scenarios projecting further effects by the end of the century. Over the last three decades, studies

  4. Development of streamflow projections under changing climate conditions over Colorado River basin headwaters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. P. Miller

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The current drought over the Colorado River Basin has raised concerns that the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation may impose water shortages over the lower portion of the basin for the first time in history. The guidelines that determine levels of shortage are affected by relatively short-term (3 to 7 month forecasts determined by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC using the National Weather Service (NWS River Forecasting System (RFS hydrologic model. While these forecasts by the CBRFC are useful, water managers within the basin are interested in long-term projections of streamflow, particularly under changing climate conditions. In this study, a bias-corrected, statistically downscaled dataset of projected climate is used to force the NWS RFS utilized by the CBRFC to derive projections of streamflow over the Green, Gunnison, and San Juan River headwater basins located within the Colorado River Basin. This study evaluates the impact of changing climate to evapotranspiration rates and contributes to a better understanding of how hydrologic processes change under varying climate conditions. The impact to evapotranspiration rates is taken into consideration and incorporated into the development of streamflow projections over Colorado River headwater basins in this study. Additionally, the NWS RFS is modified to account for impacts to evapotranspiration due to changing temperature over the basin. Adjusting evapotranspiration demands resulted in a 6 % to 13 % average decrease in runoff over the Gunnison River Basin when compared to static evapotranspiration rates. Streamflow projections derived using projections of future climate and the NWS RFS provided by the CBRFC resulted in decreased runoff in 2 of the 3 basins considered. Over the Gunnison and San Juan River basins, a 10 % to 15 % average decrease in basin runoff is projected through the year 2099. However, over the Green River basin, a 5 % to 8

  5. How is climate change impacting precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, A.; Houser, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    Water is an integrating component of the climate, energy and geochemical cycles, regulating biological and ecological activities at all spatial and temporal scales. The most significant climate warming manifestation would be a change in the distribution of precipitation and evaporation, and the exacerbation of extreme hydrologic events. Due to this phenomenon and the fact that precipitation is the most important component of the water cycle, the assumption of its stationarity for water management and engineering design should be examined closely. The precipitation Annual Maximum Series (AMS) over some stations in Virginia based on in situ data were been used as a starting point to examine this important issue. We analyzed the AMS precipitation on NOAA data for the stations close to Fairfax VA, looked for trends in extreme values, and applied our new method of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory based on quadratic forms to address changes in those extreme values and to quantify non-stationarities. It is very important to address the extreme values of precipitation based on several statistical tests to have better understanding of climate change impact on the extreme water cycle events. In our study we compared our results with the conclusion on NOAA atlas 14 Ap.3 which found no sign of precipitation non-stationarity. We then assessed the impact of this uncertainty in IDF curves on the flood map of Fairfax and compared the results with the classic IDF curves.

  6. Vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change: sequencing impacts over IPCC trajectories for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallawaarachchi, Thilak; Hodges, Andrew; Wicks, Santhi; Kokic, Phil; Nelson, Rohan

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Agricultural systems are susceptible to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. While the degree of vulnerability is a function of the magnitude and the rate of variation in climate exposure, agricultural systems with a stronger adaptive capacity are likely to be less vulnerable to climate change. In preparing the agriculture sector for ongoing climate change, adaptation planning to moderate potential impacts and to take advantage of opportunities, has emerged as an effective strategic response. Global climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC indicate that changes in climate may alter the production potential of agriculture across many regions. Wide regional variability in productivity, extensive land use and the dominance in rural economies across Australia could expose agriculture to considerable risks from climate change impacts. In many cases these risks could cascade across a range of sectors and vary overtime, reflecting the capacity of exposed enterprises to adapt to a changing climate by taking advantage of opportunities. Effective planning of adaptation responses will require integrated assessments of regional vulnerability to climate risks over IPCC projection trajectories. In this paper, we present a method for estimating and mapping vulnerability to climate risks at the regional level, and apply this method to examine the vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change, focusing on case studies drawn from dryland broadacre and irrigated horticulture industries. In developing a conceptual framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation options, the paper provides a review of key approaches used globally for the assessment of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture. It presents an approach to link global climate change scenario-based projections for assessing economic impacts on industries and regions through a process that maps climate risks to factors contributing

  7. Using statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yield with climate and crop uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia; Wang, Chunyi; Chen, Sining

    2017-11-01

    Assessment of the impact of climate change on crop productions with considering uncertainties is essential for properly identifying and decision-making agricultural practices that are sustainable. In this study, we employed 24 climate projections consisting of the combinations of eight GCMs and three emission scenarios representing the climate projections uncertainty, and two crop statistical models with 100 sets of parameters in each model representing parameter uncertainty within the crop models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize ( Zea mays L.) yield at three locations (Benxi, Changling, and Hailun) across Northeast China (NEC) in periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, taking 1976-2005 as the baseline period. The multi-models ensembles method is an effective way to deal with the uncertainties. The results of ensemble simulations showed that maize yield reductions were less than 5 % in both future periods relative to the baseline. To further understand the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty, such as climate projections and crop model parameters, in ensemble yield simulations, variance decomposition was performed. The results indicated that the uncertainty from climate projections was much larger than that contributed by crop model parameters. Increased ensemble yield variance revealed the increasing uncertainty in the yield simulation in the future periods.

  8. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Naomi J; White, Piran C L; McClean, Colin J; Marion, Glenn; Evans, Andy; Hutchings, Michael R

    2011-01-10

    Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  9. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi J Fox

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  10. Climate change impacts on coastal and pelagic environments in the southeastern Bay of Biscay

    OpenAIRE

    Chust, G; Borja, Á; Caballero, A; Irigoien, X; Sáenz, J; Moncho, R; Marcos, M; Liria, P; Hidalgo, J; Valle, M; Valencia, V

    2011-01-01

    International audience; The impacts of global climate change on the Basque coast and the pelagic systems within the southeastern Bay of Biscay are reviewed. Climate projections under greenhouse gas emission scenarios indicate that this area will experience changes in climate throughout the 21st century, including warming of surface air (especially heat wave episodes), intensification of extreme daily rainfall (10%), warming of the upper 100 m of the ocean layer (1.5 to 2.05°C), and sea level ...

  11. Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Trnka, M.; Holman, I. P.; Svobodová, E.; Harrison, P. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 128, 3-4 (2015), s. 169-186 ISSN 0165-0009 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12029 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : global Climate Model * ensemble of models * climate change * climate change scenarios * climate change impact indices * Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.344, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1297-7

  12. Changing project finance climate; Project finance wo meguru kankyo henka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madono, S. [The Export-Import Bank of Japan, Tokyo (Japan)

    1998-03-01

    Development of conditions under which project financing (PF) functions is described. PF, a method with which funds are procured for a project on the security of the assets of and the cash flow involving the project, established its position as a popular financial means. Into the 1990, however, PF underwent a complete change, when it came to be actively employed as a means for the procurement of money for what is called `infrastructure building project for invigorating the private sector` in the developing countries. PF has now come to be utilized for the financing of projects in various fields besides the field of resources exploitation. In particular, PF is now utilized in schemes such as BOT (build, operate, transfer) in public enterprises, for instance, electric power utilities in developing countries. The gravest problem found in the private sector invigorating type PF is that the sponsor, operator, exporter, and lender on their respective levels are experiencing rising risks because of intensified competition in the presence of a great number of projects. Such risks involve the exchange rate, the completion of work, and the relations between the borrower and operator. 2 figs.

  13. Health and equity impacts of climate change in Aotearoa-New Zealand, and health gains from climate action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Hayley; Jones, Rhys; Keating, Gay; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Metcalfe, Scott

    2014-11-28

    Human-caused climate change poses an increasingly serious and urgent threat to health and health equity. Under all the climate projections reported in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, New Zealand will experience direct impacts, biologically mediated impacts, and socially mediated impacts on health. These will disproportionately affect populations that already experience disadvantage and poorer health. Without rapid global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (particularly from fossil fuels), the world will breach its carbon budget and may experience high levels of warming (land temperatures on average 4-7 degrees Celsius higher by 2100). This level of climate change would threaten the habitability of some parts of the world because of extreme weather, limits on working outdoors, and severely reduced food production. However, well-planned action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could bring about substantial benefits to health, and help New Zealand tackle its costly burden of health inequity and chronic disease.

  14. Plantation forestry in Brazil: the potential impacts of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fearnside, P.M.

    1999-01-01

    Most climatic changes predicted to occur in Brazil would replace yields of silvicultural plantations, mainly through increased frequency and severity of droughts brought on by global warming and by reduction of water vapor sources in Amazonia caused by deforestation. Some additional negative effects could result from changes in temperature, and positive effects could result from CO 2 enrichment. The net effects would be negative, forcing the country to expand plantations onto less-productive land, requiring increased plantation area (and consequent economic losses) out of proportion to the climatic change itself. These impacts would affect carbon sequestration and storage consequences of any plans for subsidizing silviculture as a global warming mitigation option. Climate change can be expected to increase the area of plantations needed to supply projected internal demand for and exports of end products from Brazil. June-July-August (dry season) precipitation reductions indicated by simulations reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) correspond to rainfall declines in this critical season of approximately 34% in Amazonia, 39% in Southern Brazil and 61% in the Northeast. As an example, if rainfall in Brazilian plantation areas (most of which are now in Southern Brazil) were to decline by 50%, the area needed in 2050 would expand by an estimated 38% over the constant climate case, bringing the total area to 4.5 times the 1991 area. These large areas of additional plantations imply substantial social and environmental impacts. Further addition of plantation area as a global warming response option would augment these impacts, indicating the need for caution in evaluating carbon sequestration proposals. (author)

  15. Impact evaluation in multicultural educational projects : case: ADAPTYKES project

    OpenAIRE

    Kuusisto, Miika

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this thesis was to examine the common evaluation concepts of the European Union’s funded projects. Such concepts inter alia are effectiveness, impacts and sustainability. The aim was to study how these are realized in multicultural educational case–project in a context, where the project is funded by the European Commission’s Leonardo DaVinci Programme. Thesis introduces two evaluation approaches, which are Logical Framework Approach and Realistic evaluation model. The fi...

  16. The role of land-climate interactions for the regional amplification of temperature extremes in climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Vogel, M.; Zscheischler, J.; Schwingshackl, C.; Davin, E.; Gudmundsson, L.; Guillod, B.; Hauser, M.; Hirsch, A.; Hirschi, M.; Humphrey, V.; Thiery, W.

    2017-12-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than the global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level (Seneviratne et al. 2016). This presentation will highlight the processes underlying this behavior, which is strongly related to land-climate feedbacks (Vogel et al. 2017). The identified feedbacks are also affecting the occurrence probability of compound drought and heat events (Zscheischler and Seneviratne 2017), with high relevance for impacts on forest fire and agriculture production. Moreover, the responsible land processes strongly contribute to the inter-model spread in the projections, and can thus be used to derive observations-based constraints to reduce the uncertainty of projected changes in climate extremes. Finally, we will also discuss the role of soil moisture effects on carbon uptake and their relevance for projections, as well as the role of land use changes in affecting the identified feedbacks and projected changes in climate extremes. References: Seneviratne, S.I., M. Donat, A.J. Pitman, R. Knutti, and R.L. Wilby, 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., R. Orth, F. Cheruy, S. Hagemann, R. Lorenz, B.J.J.M. Hurk, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519, doi:10.1002/2016GL071235. Zscheischler, J., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events. Science Advances, 3(6), doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263

  17. Impacts of northern climate changes on Arctic engineering practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esch, D.C.

    1993-01-01

    Potential impacts of climate changes on engineering design practices in the Arctic are discussed with reference to permafrost engineering aspects, hydrology, and coastal and sea ice processes. Permafrost generally remains thermally stable only when mean annual air temperature remains 2-4 degrees below zero and the original surface conditions remain unchanged. It has been demonstrated that a temperature rise of only 1-2 degrees is very critical. The many different climate change forecasts make it difficult to design structures in permafrost with definite levels of confidence over a project's lifetime (i.e. up to 50 years). Consequences of climate warming on transportation-related structures can be estimated to a certain degree by examining experience with natural permafrost surfaces affected by land clearing or with structures built in permafrost. Melting of permafrost will be accompanied by surface settlements, slumping of slopes and banks, and creation of thaw pits and ponds, with eventual distress to many surface structures such as pavements and foundations. Designing for a warmer climate is illustrated for the case of the Bethel Highway, the first in Alaska to be designed for a progressively warmer climate. Increased water flows both from ice melting and increased precipitation in a warmer climate will make forecasting of discharge levels in drainage basins a difficult task. Of great concern to engineers is the potential for increased erosion and sediment loadings in streams. In coastal engineering, the effects of rising sea levels, increased open-water areas, and more severe storms foreseen in a warmer climate will require heavier and more elevated shore protection. On the other hand, shipping and offshore operations will be made easier. 9 refs., 4 figs

  18. Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sultan, B; Guan, K; Lobell, D B; Kouressy, M; Biasutti, M; Piani, C; Hammer, G L; McLean, G

    2014-01-01

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO 2 , mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO 2 . Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a

  19. Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, B.; Guan, K.; Kouressy, M.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.; Lobell, D. B.

    2014-10-01

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031-2060 compared to a baseline of 1961-1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16-20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential

  20. Quantifying Direct and Indirect Impact of Future Climate on Sub-Arctic Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young-Robertson, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

    2016-12-01

    Projected future climate will have a significant impact on the hydrology of interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds, directly though the changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, and indirectly through the cryospheric and ecological impacts. Although the latter is the dominant factor controlling the hydrological processes in the interior Alaska sub-arctic, it is often overlooked in many climate change impact studies. In this study, we aim to quantify and compare the direct and indirect impact of the projected future climate on the hydrology of the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) meso-scale hydrological model will be implemented to simulate the hydrological processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture dynamics in the Chena River Basin (area = 5400km2), located in the interior Alaska sub-arctic region. Permafrost and vegetation distribution will be derived from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Model (LPJ) model, respectively. All models will be calibrated and validated using historical data. The Scenario Network for Alaskan and Arctic Planning (SNAP) 5-model average projected climate data products will be used as forcing data for each of these models. The direct impact of climate change on hydrology is estimated using surface parameterization derived from the present day permafrost and vegetation distribution, and future climate forcing from SNAP projected climate data products. Along with the projected future climate, outputs of GIPL and LPJ will be incorporated into the VIC model to estimate the indirect and overall impact of future climate on the hydrology processes in the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. Finally, we will present the potential hydrological and ecological changes by the end of the 21st century.

  1. Climate Change Impact on Togo's Agriculture Performance: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate Change Impact on Togo's Agriculture Performance: A Ricardian Analysis Based on Time Series Data. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... Conclusively, the impact of climate change on agriculture seems to be varied with the temperature and precipitation in different seasons. Climate ...

  2. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

  3. Qualitative Assessment: Evaluating the Impacts of Climate ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The South Fork Nooksack River (South Fork) is located in northwest Washington State and is home to nine species of Pacific salmon, including Nooksack early Chinook (aka, spring Chinook salmon), an iconic species for the Nooksack Indian Tribe. The quantity of salmon in the South Fork, especially spring Chinook salmon, has dramatically declined from historic levels, due primarily to habitat degradation from the legacy impacts of various land uses such as commercial forestry, agriculture, flood control, and transportation infrastructure. Segments of the South Fork and some of its tributaries exceed temperature criteria established for the protection of cold-water salmonid populations, and were listed on Washington State’s Clean Water Act (CWA) 303(d) list of impaired waterbodies. High water temperatures in the South Fork are detrimental to fish and other native species that depend on cool, clean, well-oxygenated water. Of the nine salmon species, three have been listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) and are of high priority to restoration efforts in the South Fork—spring Chinook salmon, summer steelhead trout, and bull trout. Growing evidence shows that climate change will exacerbate legacy impacts. This qualitative assessment is a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater habitat and Pacific salmon in the South Fork. It also evaluates the effectiveness of restoration tools that address Pacific salmon recovery.

  4. A probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on yield and nitrogen leaching from winter wheat in Denmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Børgesen

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will impact agricultural production both directly and indirectly, but uncertainties related to likely impacts constrain current political decision making on adaptation. This analysis focuses on a methodology for applying probabilistic climate change projections to assess modelled wheat yields and nitrate leaching from arable land in Denmark. The probabilistic projections describe a range of possible changes in temperature and precipitation. Two methodologies to apply climate projections in impact models were tested. Method A was a straightforward correction of temperature and precipitation, where the same correction was applied to the baseline weather data for all days in the year, and method B used seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature to correct the baseline weather data. Based on climate change projections for the time span 2000 to 2100 and two soil types, the mean impact and the uncertainty of the climate change projections were analysed. Combining probability density functions of climate change projections with crop model simulations, the uncertainty and trends in nitrogen (N leaching and grain yields with climate change were quantified. The uncertainty of climate change projections was the dominating source of uncertainty in the projections of yield and N leaching, whereas the methodology to seasonally apply climate change projections had a minor effect. For most conditions, the probability of large yield reductions and large N leaching losses tracked trends in mean yields and mean N leaching. The impacts of the uncertainty in climate change were higher for loamy sandy soil than for sandy soils due to generally higher yield levels for loamy sandy soils. There were large differences between soil types in response to climate change, illustrating the importance of including soil information for regional studies of climate change impacts on cropping systems.

  5. On the climatic impact of contrails

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strauss, B; Meerkoetter, R; Wissinger, B; Wendling, P [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1998-12-31

    The impact of contrail induced cirrus clouds on regional climate is estimated for atmospheric conditions of Southern Germany that are typical for the months of July and October. This is done by the use of a regionalized one-dimensional radiative convective model (RCM). The influence of an increased ice cloud cover is studied by comparing RCM results using averaged climatological values of cloudiness with those of a case with modified cloudiness. It turns out that a 10% increase in ice cloud cover leads to a surface temperature increase of 1.4 K and 1.2 K for the months of July and October, respectively. (author) 14 refs.

  6. On the climatic impact of contrails

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strauss, B.; Meerkoetter, R.; Wissinger, B.; Wendling, P. [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    The impact of contrail induced cirrus clouds on regional climate is estimated for atmospheric conditions of Southern Germany that are typical for the months of July and October. This is done by the use of a regionalized one-dimensional radiative convective model (RCM). The influence of an increased ice cloud cover is studied by comparing RCM results using averaged climatological values of cloudiness with those of a case with modified cloudiness. It turns out that a 10% increase in ice cloud cover leads to a surface temperature increase of 1.4 K and 1.2 K for the months of July and October, respectively. (author) 14 refs.

  7. Amazonia: Burning and global climate impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molion, L.C.B.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, humans have been playing a major role in reducing the natural forest cover in the tropics through different forms of slash and burn. The most serious destruction, it is said, is occurring in the Amazon, which is the largest expanse of tropical forest remaining on the planet. This chapter reviews briefly the causes and the extent of Amazonian deforestation and focuses on its global and local climate impacts. In addition, the effects of loss of diversity and need to preserve Indian cultures and societies are briefly discussed

  8. What's happening out there? (Climatic change impacts)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Visconti, G.

    1990-01-01

    This article briefly comments on some stumbling-blocks to climatic change modelling accuracy - in assessments of the greenhouse effect, 25% (missing link) of atmospheric carbon dioxide absorption is still unaccounted for; 1989 World Bank estimates of the Amazon rain forest deforestation rate have since proven to be inaccurate; there are difficulties in assessing the movement of the earth's crust relative to variations in sea level; and different studies vary in results relative to global temperature measurement and trend assessment. The need for an assessment of the economic impacts of increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is also pointed out

  9. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  10. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  11. Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Lauwaet

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005 and future (2081–2100 climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban heat island of eight different cities, located on three continents, is quantified and assessed, with an unprecedented horizontal resolution of a few hundred meters. For all cities, urban and rural air temperatures are found to increase strongly, up to 7 °C. However, the urban heat island intensity in most cases increases only slightly, often even below the range of uncertainty. A potential explanation, focusing on the role of increased incoming longwave radiation, is put forth. Finally, an alternative method for generating urban climate projections is proposed, combining the ensemble temperature change statistics and the results of the present-day urban climate.

  12. Impacts of climate change on extreme wave climate along the Western Coast of Sri Lanka

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bamunawala, R. M.J.; Hettiarachchi, S. S.L.; Samarawickrama, S. P.; Wikramanayake, P. N.; Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Baptiste, Alison

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and climate change driven impacts are most widely argued topics among contemporary researchers and scientists. Broadly there are two schools of thought that present entirely contrasting perceptions about the overall concept of climate change and its impacts. While one of the

  13. Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlenker, Wolfram [Department of Economics and School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 (United States); Lobell, David B, E-mail: dlobell@stanford.ed [Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to climate change emerges for several key African crops. By mid-century, the mean estimates of aggregate production changes in SSA under our preferred model specification are - 22, - 17, - 17, - 18, and - 8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, respectively. In all cases except cassava, there is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, and a 5% probability that they exceed 27%. Moreover, countries with the highest average yields have the largest projected yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat related losses.

  14. Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlenker, Wolfram; Lobell, David B

    2010-01-01

    There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to climate change emerges for several key African crops. By mid-century, the mean estimates of aggregate production changes in SSA under our preferred model specification are - 22, - 17, - 17, - 18, and - 8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, respectively. In all cases except cassava, there is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, and a 5% probability that they exceed 27%. Moreover, countries with the highest average yields have the largest projected yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat related losses.

  15. Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; McDermid, Sonali; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Jones, James W.; Romero, Consuelo C.; Cecil, L. DeWayne

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

  16. Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply ... In a context of positive economic growth, demand for water is expected to ... Socially equitable climate action is essential to strengthen the resilience of all ...

  17. How Will Climate Change Impact Cholera Outbreaks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Rahimikolu, J.; Akanda, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Environmental parameters associated with cholera are well documented. However, cholera continues to be a global public health threat. Uncertainty in defining environmental processes affecting growth and multiplication of the cholera bacteria can be affected significantly by changing climate at different temporal and spatial scales, either through amplification of the hydroclimatic cycle or by enhanced variability of large scale geophysical processes. Endemic cholera in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia has a unique pattern of two seasonal peaks and there are associated with asymmetric and episodic variability in river discharge. The first cholera outbreak in spring is related with intrusion of bacteria laden coastal seawater during low river discharge. Cholera occurring during the fall season is hypothesized to be associated with high river discharge related to a cross-contamination of water resources and, therefore, a second wave of disease, a phenomenon characteristic primarily in the inland regions. Because of difficulties in establishing linkage between coarse resolutions of the Global Climate Model (GCM) output and localized disease outbreaks, the impact of climate change on diarrheal disease has not been explored. Here using the downscaling method of Support Vector Machines from HADCM3 and ECHAM models, we show how cholera outbreak patterns are changing in the Bengal Delta. Our preliminary results indicate statistically significant changes in both seasonality and magnitude in the occurrence of cholera over the next century. Endemic cholera is likely to transform into epidemic forms and new geographical areas will be at risk for cholera outbreaks.

  18. Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Developing an approach to effectively use super ensemble experiments for the projection of hydrological extremes under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Kim, H.; Utsumi, N.

    2017-12-01

    This study aims to develop a new approach which projects hydrology under climate change using super ensemble experiments. The use of multiple ensemble is essential for the estimation of extreme, which is a major issue in the impact assessment of climate change. Hence, the super ensemble experiments are recently conducted by some research programs. While it is necessary to use multiple ensemble, the multiple calculations of hydrological simulation for each output of ensemble simulations needs considerable calculation costs. To effectively use the super ensemble experiments, we adopt a strategy to use runoff projected by climate models directly. The general approach of hydrological projection is to conduct hydrological model simulations which include land-surface and river routing process using atmospheric boundary conditions projected by climate models as inputs. This study, on the other hand, simulates only river routing model using runoff projected by climate models. In general, the climate model output is systematically biased so that a preprocessing which corrects such bias is necessary for impact assessments. Various bias correction methods have been proposed, but, to the best of our knowledge, no method has proposed for variables other than surface meteorology. Here, we newly propose a method for utilizing the projected future runoff directly. The developed method estimates and corrects the bias based on the pseudo-observation which is a result of retrospective offline simulation. We show an application of this approach to the super ensemble experiments conducted under the program of Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI). More than 400 ensemble experiments from multiple climate models are available. The results of the validation using historical simulations by HAPPI indicates that the output of this approach can effectively reproduce retrospective runoff variability. Likewise, the bias of runoff from super ensemble climate

  20. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  1. The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB V1.0) Contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Kovats, R. Sari; hide

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decisionmakers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs (observational datasets) and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

  2. Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for forage and rangeland production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; Morgan, Jack; Fay, Philip; Polley, Wayne; Hatfield, Jerry L.

    2011-04-19

    Projections of temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the next 50 years anticipate a 1.5 to 2°C warming and a slight increase in precipitation as a result of global climate change. There have been relatively few studies of climate change impacts on pasture and rangeland (grazingland) species compared to those on crop species, despite the economic and ecological importance of the former. Here we review the literature on pastureland and rangeland species to rising CO2 and climate change (temperature, and precipitation) and discuss plant and management factors likely to influence pastureland and rangeland responses to change (e.g., community composition, plant competition, perennial growth habit, seasonal productivity, and management methods). Overall, the response of pasture species to increased [CO2] is consistent with the general response of C3 and C4 type vegetation, although significant exceptions exist. Both pastureland and rangeland species should exhibit an acceleration of metabolism and development due to earlier onset of spring green-up and longer growing seasons. However, in the studies reviewed here, C3 pasture species increased their photosynthetic rates by up to 40% while C4 species exhibited no increase in photosynthesis. In general, it is expected that increases in [CO2] and precipitation would enhance rangeland net primary production (NPP) while increased air temperatures would either increase or decrease NPP. Much of this uncertainty in response is due to uncertain future projections of precipitation, both globally and regionally. For example, if annual precipitation changes little or declines, rangeland plant response to warming temperatures and rising [CO2] may be neutral or may decline due to increased water stress. This review reveals the need for comprehensive studies of climate change impacts on the pasture ecosystem including grazing regimes, mutualistic relationships (e.g., plant roots-nematodes; N

  3. Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority climate change adaptation pilot project report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    This Climate Change Adaptation Pilot Project Report details the project background of the recently-completed Los Angeles County : Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro) Transit Climate Change Adaptation Pilot Project as well as the various wor...

  4. Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Projected mortality from climate change-driven impacts on extremely hot and cold days increases significantly over the 21st century in a large group of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Increases in projected mortality from more hot days are greater than decreases in ...

  5. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  6. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aanund Killingtveit

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

  7. Climate change impacts on global agricultural land availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiao; Cai Ximing

    2011-01-01

    Climate change can affect both crop yield and the land area suitable for agriculture. This study provides a spatially explicit estimate of the impact of climate change on worldwide agricultural land availability, considering uncertainty in climate change projections and ambiguity with regard to land classification. Uncertainty in general circulation model (GCM) projections is addressed using data assembled from thirteen GCMs and two representative emission scenarios (A1B and B1 employ CO 2 -equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations of 850 and 600 ppmv, respectively; B1 represents a greener economy). Erroneous data and the uncertain nature of land classifications based on multiple indices (i.e. soil properties, land slope, temperature, and humidity) are handled with fuzzy logic modeling. It is found that the total global arable land area is likely to decrease by 0.8-1.7% under scenario A1B and increase by 2.0-4.4% under scenario B1. Regions characterized by relatively high latitudes such as Russia, China and the US may expect an increase of total arable land by 37-67%, 22-36% and 4-17%, respectively, while tropical and sub-tropical regions may suffer different levels of lost arable land. For example, South America may lose 1-21% of its arable land area, Africa 1-18%, Europe 11-17%, and India 2-4%. When considering, in addition, land used for human settlements and natural conservation, the net potential arable land may decrease even further worldwide by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios due to population growth. Regionally, it is likely that both climate change and population growth will cause reductions in arable land in Africa, South America, India and Europe. However, in Russia, China and the US, significant arable land increases may still be possible. Although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are regionally consistent.

  8. Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng; Link, Robert; Clarke, Leon; Maciejewski, Ross

    2017-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

  9. Climate Change Communicators: The C3E3 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.

    2013-12-01

    The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) have partnered with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences through the Climate Change Communication: Engineer, Environmental science, and Education (C3E3) project. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students participated in the second summer internship funded by the project. More than 60 students participated in guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. The students went through training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of webcasts on investigating the aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Several departments are involved in the educational program.

  10. Ask the climate question : adapting to climate change impacts in urban regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    As the first responders to the impacts of climate change, local governments play a crucial role in implementing the actions and strategies that will reduce their communities vulnerability to the dangers of a changing climate. This type of action o...

  11. IMPACT2C: Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, D.; Kotova, L.; Impact2C Team

    2012-04-01

    Political discussions on the European goal to limit global warming to 2°C demand, that information is provided to society by the best available science on projected impacts and possible benefits. The new project IMPACT2C is supported by the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme as a 4 year large-scale integrating project. IMPACT2C is coordinated by the Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht. IMPACT2C enhances knowledge, quantifies climate change impacts, and adopts a clear and logical structure, with climate and impacts modelling, vulnerabilities, risks and economic costs, as well as potential responses, within a pan-European sector based analysis. The project utilises a range of models within a multi-disciplinary international expert team and assesses effects on water, energy, infrastructure, coasts, tourism, forestry, agriculture, ecosystems services, and health and air quality-climate interactions. IMPACT2C introduces key innovations. First, harmonised socio-economic assumptions/scenarios will be used, to ensure that both individual and cross-sector assessments are aligned to the 2°C (1.5°C) scenario for both impacts and adaptation, e.g. in relation to land-use pressures between agriculture and forestry. Second, it has a core theme of uncertainty, and will develop a methodological framework integrating the uncertainties within and across the different sectors, in a consistent way. In so doing, analysis of adaptation responses under uncertainty will be enhanced. Finally, a cross-sectoral perspective is adopted to complement the sector analysis. A number of case studies will be developed for particularly vulnerable areas, subject to multiple impacts (e.g. the Mediterranean), with the focus being on cross-sectoral interactions (e.g. land use competition) and cross-cutting themes (e.g. cities). The project also assesses climate change impacts in some of the world's most vulnerable regions: Bangladesh, Africa (Nile and Niger basins), and the

  12. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  13. EU climate policy up to 2020: An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph, E-mail: boehringer@uni-oldenburg.d [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost.

  14. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Loeschel, Andreas; Moslener, Ulf; Rutherford, Thomas F.

    2009-01-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  15. The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

    2014-03-01

    This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

  16. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

    2013-09-01

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  17. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

    2013-01-01

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

  18. Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

  19. Enhancing STEM coursework at MSIs through the AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abshire, W. E.; Mills, E. W.; Slough, S. W.; Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Nugnes, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    -supported diversity projects for the AMS Weather and Ocean Studies courses conducted from 2001-2008. As a whole, AMS Climate, Weather, and Ocean Studies courses have activated more than 400 institutional licenses from MSIs and impacted more than 25,000 students.

  20. Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Pohl, Benjamin; Robson, Jon; Dong, Buwen

    2017-11-01

    The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920-2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variability of Sahel precipitation, and is representative of a CMIP5 ensemble of simulations (i.e. it simulates the same pattern of precipitation change along with equivalent magnitude and seasonal cycle changes as the CMIP5 ensemble mean). However, CESM1-CAM5 underestimates the long-term decadal variability in Sahel precipitation. For short-term (2010-2049) and mid-term (2030-2069) projections the simulated internal variability component is able to obscure the projected impact of the external forcing. For long-term (2060-2099) projections external forcing induced change becomes stronger than simulated internal variability. Precipitation changes are found to be more robust over the central Sahel than over the western Sahel, where climate change effects struggle to emerge. Ten (thirty) members are needed to separate the 10 year averaged forced response from climate internal variability response in the western Sahel for a long-term (short-term) horizon. Over the central Sahel two members (ten members) are needed for a long-term (short-term) horizon.

  1. Climate, economic, and environmental impacts of producing wood for bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsey, Richard; Duffy, Philip; Smyth, Carolyn; Kurz, Werner A.; Dugan, Alexa J.; Houghton, Richard

    2018-05-01

    Increasing combustion of woody biomass for electricity has raised concerns and produced conflicting statements about impacts on atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, climate, and other forest values such as timber supply and biodiversity. The purposes of this concise review of current literature are to (1) examine impacts on net GHG emissions and climate from increasing bioenergy production from forests and exporting wood pellets to Europe from North America, (2) develop a set of science-based recommendations about the circumstances that would result in GHG reductions or increases in the atmosphere, and (3) identify economic and environmental impacts of increasing bioenergy use of forests. We find that increasing bioenergy production and pellet exports often increase net emissions of GHGs for decades or longer, depending on source of feedstock and its alternate fate, time horizon of analysis, energy emissions associated with the supply chain and fuel substitution, and impacts on carbon cycling of forest ecosystems. Alternative uses of roundwood often offer larger reductions in GHGs, in particular long-lived wood products that store carbon for longer periods of time and can achieve greater substitution benefits than bioenergy. Other effects of using wood for bioenergy may be considerable including induced land-use change, changes in supplies of wood and other materials for construction, albedo and non-radiative effects of land-cover change on climate, and long-term impacts on soil productivity. Changes in biodiversity and other ecosystem attributes may be strongly affected by increasing biofuel production, depending on source of material and the projected scale of biofuel production increases.

  2. Recognizing and exploring the right questions with climate data: An example of better understanding ENSO in climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammann, C. M.; Brown, B.; Kalb, C. P.; Bullock, R.; Buja, L.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Halley-Gotway, J.; Kaatz, L.; Yates, D. N.

    2017-12-01

    Coordinated, multi-model climate change projection archives have already led to a flourishing of new climate impact applications. Collections and online tools for the computation of derived indicators have attracted many non-specialist users and decision-makers and facilitated for them the exploration of potential future weather and climate changes on their systems. Guided by a set of standardized steps and analyses, many can now use model output and determine basic model-based changes. But because each application and decision-context is different, the question remains if such a small collection of standardized tools can faithfully and comprehensively represent the critical physical context of change? We use the example of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, the largest and most broadly recognized mode of variability in the climate system, to explore the difference in impact contexts between a quasi-blind, protocol-bound and a flexible, scientifically guided use of climate information. More use oriented diagnostics of the model-data as well as different strategies for getting data into decision environments are explored.

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

    OpenAIRE

    Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified l...

  4. Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C R; Mincham, G; Faddy, H; Viennet, E; Ritchie, S A; Harley, D

    2016-10-01

    Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

  5. Climate change projections and stratosphere-troposphere interaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scaife, Adam A.; Fereday, David R.; Butchart, Neal; Hardiman, Steven C. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Langematz, Ulrike [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Akiyoshi, Hideharu [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Bekki, Slimane [LATMOS-IPSL, UVSQ, UPMC, CNRS/INSU, Paris (France); Braesicke, Peter [University of Cambridge, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Chipperfield, Martyn P. [University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Gettelman, Andrew [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Michou, Martine [GAME/CNRM (Meteo France, CNRS), Toulouse (France); Rozanov, Eugene [PMOD/WRC and ETHZ, Davos (Switzerland); Shepherd, Theodore G. [University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2012-05-15

    Climate change is expected to increase winter rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as evaporation and precipitation rates increase, storms become more intense and storm tracks move polewards. Here, we show how changes in stratospheric circulation could play a significant role in future climate change in the extratropics through an additional shift in the tropospheric circulation. This shift in the circulation alters climate change in regional winter rainfall by an amount large enough to significantly alter regional climate change projections. The changes are consistent with changes in stratospheric winds inducing a change in the baroclinic eddy growth rate across the depth of the troposphere. A change in mean wind structure and an equatorward shift of the tropospheric storm tracks relative to models with poor stratospheric resolution allows coupling with surface climate. Using the Atlantic storm track as an example, we show how this can double the predicted increase in extreme winter rainfall over Western and Central Europe compared to other current climate projections. (orig.)

  6. The CARIPANDA project: Climate change and water resources in the Adamello Natural Park of Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocchiola, D.

    2009-04-01

    The three years (2007-2009) CARIPANDA project funded by the Cariplo Foundation of Italy is aimed to evaluate scenarios for water resources in the Adamello natural Park of Italy in a window of 50 years or so (until 2050). The project is led by Ente Parco Adamello and involves Politecnico di Milano, Università Statale di Milano, Università di Brescia, and ARPA Lombardia as scientific partners, while ENEL hydropower Company of Italy joins the project as stake holder. The Adamello Natural Park is a noteworthy resource in the Italian Alps. The Adamello Group is made of several glacierized areas (c. 24 km2), of both debris covered and free ice types, including the widest Italian Glacier, named Adamello, spreading on an area of about c. 18 km2. Also the Adamello Natural Reserve, covering 217 km2 inside the Adamello Park and including the Adamello glaciers, hosts a number of high altitude safeguarded vegetal and animal species, the safety of which is a primary task of the Reserve. Project's activity involves analysis of local climate trend, field campaigns on glaciers, hydrological modelling and remote sensing of snow and ice covered areas, aimed to build a consistent model of the present hydrological conditions and of the areas. Then, properly tailored climate change projections for the area, obtained using local data driven downscaling of climate change projections from GCMs model, are used to infer the likely response to expected climate change conditions. With two years in the project now some preliminary findings can be highlighted and some preliminary trend analysis carried out. The proposed poster provides a resume of the main results of the project insofar, of interest as a benchmark for similar ongoing and foregoing projects about climate change impact on European mountainous natural areas.

  7. Climate change impacts on corn phenology and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is changing around the world and will impact future production of all food and feed crops. Corn is no exception to these impacts and to ensure a future supply of this vital crop we must begin to understand how climate impacts both the phenological development of corn and the productivity. Te...

  8. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on present and future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deandreis, C.

    2008-03-01

    Aerosols influence the Earth radiative budget both through their direct effect (scattering and absorption of solar radiation) and their indirect effect (impacts on cloud microphysics). The role of anthropogenic aerosol in climate change has been recognized to be significant when compared to the one of greenhouse gases. Despite many studies on this topic, the assessments of both anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and their impacts on meteorological variables are still very uncertain. Major reasons for these uncertainties stem from the insufficient knowledge of the emissions sources and of the processes of formation, transformation and deposition. Models used to study climate are often inadequate to study aerosol processes because of coarse spatial and temporal scales. Uncertainties due to the parameterization of the aerosol are added to the uncertainties in the representation of large scale dynamics and physical processes such as transport, hydrological cycle and radiative budget. To predict, the role of the anthropogenic aerosol impact in the future climate change, I have addressed some of these key uncertainties. In this study, I simulate interactively aerosols processes in a climate model in order to improve the estimation of their direct and indirect effects. I estimate a modification of the top of the atmosphere net flux of 60% for the present period. I also show that, for future projection, the representation of the emissions source is an other important source of error. I assess that aerosols radiative forcing differ by 40% between simulations performed with 2 different emissions inventories. These inventories are representative for a high and a low limit in term of carbonaceous aerosols emissions for the 2050 horizon. (author)

  9. Extreme climate in China. Facts, simulation and projection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hui-Jun; Sun, Jian-Qi; Chen, Huo-Po; Zhu, Ya-Li; Zhang, Ying; Jiang, Da-Bang; Lang, Xian-Mei; Fan, Ke; Yu, En-Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics; Yang, Song [NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-06-15

    In this paper, studies on extreme climate in China including extreme temperature and precipitation, dust weather activity, tropical cyclone activity, intense snowfall and cold surge activity, floods, and droughts are reviewed based on the peer-reviewed publications in recent decades. The review is focused first on the climatological features, variability, and trends in the past half century and then on simulations and projections based on global and regional climate models. As the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increased throughout China, heat wave intensity and frequency overall increased in the past half century, with a large rate after the 1980s. The daily or yearly minimum SAT increased more significantly than the mean or maximum SAT. The long-term change in precipitation is predominantly characterized by the so-called southern flood and northern drought pattern in eastern China and by the overall increase over Northwest China. The interdecadal variation of monsoon, represented by the monsoon weakening in the end of 1970s, is largely responsible for this change in mean precipitation. Precipitation-related extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall and intense snowfall) have become more frequent and intense generally over China in the recent years, with large spatial features. Dust weather activity, however, has become less frequent over northern China in the recent years, as result of weakened cold surge activity, reinforced precipitation, and improved vegetation condition. State-of-the-art climate models are capable of reproducing some features of the mean climate and extreme climate events. However, discrepancies among models in simulating and projecting the mean and extreme climate are also demonstrated by many recent studies. Regional models with higher resolutions often perform better than global models. To predict and project climate variations and extremes, many new approaches and schemes based on dynamical models, statistical methods, or their

  10. Papers of the CWRA climate change symposium : understanding climate change impacts on Manitoba's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This symposium provided an opportunity for discussions on climate change issues with particular reference to the impacts on Manitoba's water resources. The presentations addressed issues of importance to governments, scientists, academics, managers, consultants and the general public. Topics of discussion ranged from climate change impacts on water quality, wetlands, hydropower, fisheries and drought, to adaptation to climate change. Recent advances in global and regional climate modelling were highlighted along with paleo-environmental indicators of climate change. The objective was to provide a better understanding of the science of climate change. The conference featured 16 presentations of which 1 was indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  11. Evolution of extreme temperature events in short term climate projection for Iberian Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Alfredo; Tarquis, Ana M.; Sanchez, Enrique; Dosio, Alessandro; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2014-05-01

    Extreme events of maximum and minimum temperatures are a main hazard for agricultural production in Iberian Peninsula. For this purpose, in this study we analyze projections of their evolution that could be valid for the next decade, represented in this study by the 30-year period 2004-2034 (target period). For this purpose two kinds of data were used in this study: 1) observations from the station network of AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological Agency) for five Spanish locations, and 2) simulated data at a resolution of 50 ×50 km horizontal grid derived from the outputs of twelve Regional Climate Models (RCMs) taken from project ENSEMBLES (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009), with a bias correction (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) regarding the observational dataset Spain02 (Herrera et al., 2012). To validate the simulated climate, the available period of observations was compared to a baseline period (1964-1994) of simulated climate for all locations. Then, to analyze the changes for the present/very next future, probability of extreme temperature events for 2004-2034 were compared to that of the baseline period. Although only minor changes are expected, small variations in variability may have a significant impact in crop performance. The objective of the work is to evaluate the utility of these short term projections for potential users, as for instance insurance companies. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116,D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research,Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Herrera et. al. (2012) Development and Analysis of a 50 year high

  12. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Spring Barley Production in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, M.; Dubrovský, Martin; Žalud, Z.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 64, 1-2 (2004), s. 227-255 ISSN 0165-0009 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA521/02/0827 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : CERES-barley model * climate change impacts * stochastic weather generator Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.035, year: 2004